Sample records for sub-hourly rainfall-runoff modeling


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 15, 2015 ... Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and ... information technology, many rainfall-runoff models have developed. In modeling ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. ... artificial neural network had better results than linear transfer function model.

  2. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed a neurofuzzy-based rainfall-runoff forecast model for river basin and evaluated the performance of the model. This was with a view to capturing the behaviour of hydrological and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. Three hydrological ...

  3. Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D.P.


    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  4. Application of two rainfall - runoff models to Kelantan Catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall-runoff models can be used for forecasting flow from catchments. Flow forecasting from a catchment has great use for proper water resources development and operational management. Countless models have been produced m different parts of the world to simulate this transformation of rainfall over the catchment ...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 15, 2015 ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. They determined the runoff from the rainfall in Neckar River catchment, in southwest of Germany. In their research, a conceptual, modular and semi-distributed model was used which was named. Hydrological Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) ...

  6. Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff Simulation In Ungauged Catchments: The Case Of Upper Ewaso Ngiro Drainage Basin in Kenya. ... This involved, in the case of suction at the wetting front and hydraulic conductivity, deriving the parameter values from soil texture. The remaining conceptual ...

  7. Rainfall-runoff modeling in the Turkey River using numerical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek


    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  9. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur


    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  10. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  11. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  12. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes (United States)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten


    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  13. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berezowski, T; Nossent, J; Chormański, J; Batelaan, O


    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration...

  14. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.


    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  15. Combinations of specilaized conceptual and neural network rainfall-runoff models: comparison of performance (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri


    A single hydrological model (process-based or data driven) might not equally well describe the characteristic of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship. One possibility here is building several specialized (local) models which can be specifically oriented at a particular process in the same model structure and combining them using weighting scheme the result can be called a multi-model, or a committee model. In this approach first we build the individual specialized models which are mainly calibrated on various regimes corresponding to hydrological sub-processes for example, low flow and high flow, and combining their outputs using the ideas of a fuzzy membership with various parameterisations. This experiment explores the several committee models of specialized hydrological models [1, 2] which are employed for rainfall-runoff model prediction. Comparison of three committee models are demonstrated which constructed from specialized models: (1) processes-based conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model (CRRM) (2) rainfall-runoff model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and (3) combination of CRRM and ANN. The weights assigned to each specialized model's output are based on fuzzy membership functions which are different at every time step depending on the current value of flow. Comparison results indicated that committee model CRRM-ANN built from the high flow HBV model and low flow ANN model outperformed other models. Bagmati catchment in Nepal and Leaf catchment in USA are considered as case studies. [1] Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P., Savenije, H. H. G. and Matgen, P. Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1797-1809, Special Issue "Data-driven approaches, optimization and model integration: hydrological applications", R. Abrahart, L. See, D. Solomatine, and E. Toth (eds.), 2007. [2] Kayastha N., J. Ye, Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

  16. Wildcat5 for Windows, a rainfall-runoff hydrograph model: user manual and documentation (United States)

    R. H. Hawkins; A. Barreto-Munoz


    Wildcat5 for Windows (Wildcat5) is an interactive Windows Excel-based software package designed to assist watershed specialists in analyzing rainfall runoff events to predict peak flow and runoff volumes generated by single-event rainstorms for a variety of watershed soil and vegetation conditions. Model inputs are: (1) rainstorm characteristics, (2) parameters related...

  17. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.


    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for

  18. Impact of evapotranspiration process representation on runoff projections from conceptual rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.


    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models are commonly used to estimate potential changes in runoff due to climate change. The development of these models has generally focused on reproducing runoff characteristics, with less scrutiny on other important processes such as the conversion from potential evapotranspiration (PET) to actual evapotranspiration (AET). This study uses three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4J, AWBM, and IHACRES_CMD) and five catchments in climatologically different regions of Australia to explore the role of ET process representation on the sensitivity of runoff to plausible future changes in PET. The changes in PET were simulated using the Penman-Monteith model and by perturbing each of the driving variables (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind) separately. Surprisingly, the results showed the potential of a more than sevenfold difference in runoff sensitivity per unit change in annual average PET, depending on both the rainfall-runoff model and the climate variable used to perturb PET. These differences were largely due to different ways used to convert PET to AET in the conceptual rainfall-runoff models, with particular dependencies on the daily wet/dry status, as well as the seasonal variations in store levels. By comparing the temporal patterns in simulated AET with eddy-covariance-based observations at two of the study locations, we highlighted some unrealistic behavior in the simulated AET from AWBM. Such process-based evaluations are useful for scrutinizing the representation of physical processes in alternative conceptual rainfall-runoff models, which can be particularly useful for selecting models for projecting runoff under a changing climate.

  19. Comparison of Various Optimization Methods for Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu


    Runoff forecasts are needed in many water resources activities such as flood and drought management, irrigation practices, and water distribution systems, etc. Runoff is generally forecasted using rainfall-runoff models by using hydrologic data in the catchment. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular with practicing hydrologists and water resources engineers for performing hydrologic forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia. The RRL consists of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. RRL is designed to simulate catchment runoff by using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of different optimization methods for the calibration of various conceptual rainfall-runoff models available in RRL toolkit are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, AWBM (The Australian Water Balance Model) has been employed. Seven different optimization methods are investigated for the calibration of the AWBM model. The optimization methods investigated include uniform random sampling, pattern search, multi start pattern search, Rosenbrock search, Rosenbrock multi-start search, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the optimizers for all to develop the AWBM. The results obtained from the best configuration of the AWBM are presented here for all optimization methods. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that

  20. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Chlumecký, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, Karel


    The efficient calibration of rainfall-runoff models is a difficult issue, even for experienced hydrologists. Therefore, fast and high-quality model calibration is a valuable improvement. This paper describes a novel methodology and software for the optimisation of a rainfall-runoff modelling using a genetic algorithm (GA) with a newly prepared concept of a random number generator (HRNG), which is the core of the optimisation. The GA estimates model parameters using evolutionary principles, which requires a quality number generator. The new HRNG generates random numbers based on hydrological information and it provides better numbers compared to pure software generators. The GA enhances the model calibration very well and the goal is to optimise the calibration of the model with a minimum of user interaction. This article focuses on improving the internal structure of the GA, which is shielded from the user. The results that we obtained indicate that the HRNG provides a stable trend in the output quality of the model, despite various configurations of the GA. In contrast to previous research, the HRNG speeds up the calibration of the model and offers an improvement of rainfall-runoff modelling.

  1. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming


    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  2. CLASSIC: a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff modelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall–runoff model, originally formulated to simulate impacts of climate and land-use change on flood frequency. The model has component modules for soil moisture balance, drainage response and channel routing and is grid-based to allow direct incorporation of GIS- and Digital Terrain Model (DTM-derived data sets into the initialisation of parameter values. Catchment runoff is derived from the aggregation of components of flow from the drainage module within each grid square and from total routed flow from all grid squares. Calibration is performed sequentially for the three modules using different objective functions for each stage. A key principle of the modelling system is the concept of nested calibration, which ensures that all flows simulated for points within a large catchment are spatially consistent. The modelling system is robust and has been applied successfully at different spatial scales to three large catchments in the UK, including comparison of observed and modelled flood frequency and flow duration curves, simulation of flows for uncalibrated catchments and identification of components of flow within a modelled hydrograph. The role of such a model in integrated catchment studies is outlined.

  3. [Parameter uncertainty analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling]. (United States)

    Huang, Jin-Liang; Lin, Jie; Du, Peng-Fei


    An urban watershed in Xiamen was selected to perform the parameter uncertainty analysis for urban stormwater runoff modeling in terms of identification and sensitivity analysis based on storm water management model (SWMM) using Monte-Carlo sampling and regionalized sensitivity analysis (RSA) algorithm. Results show that Dstore-Imperv, Dstore-Perv and Curve Number (CN) are the identifiable parameters with larger K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module, and the rank of K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module is Dstore-Imperv > CN > Dstore-Perv > N-Perv > conductivity > Con-Mann > N-Imperv. With regards to water quality module, the parameters in exponent washoff model including Coefficient and Exponent and the Max. Buildup parameter of saturation buildup model in three land cover types are the identifiable parameters with the larger K-S values. In comparison, the K-S value of rate constant in three landuse/cover types is smaller than that of Max. Buildup, Coefficient and Exponent.

  4. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    to the hydrodynamic model and is not capable of updating the water levels in pipes and basins explicitly. The statistical data assimilation method the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was investigated as a tool to update all the state variables in a DUDM. The method was tested in synthetic experiments as well...... systems (and elsewhere) do not measure the quantity they are observing continuously. A new method was developed for utilising this kind of range-limited observations better when using the EnKF. The method works by counteracting the ensemble in spreading into to observable range when the lack...

  5. computational intelligence for modeling rainfall-runoff process (United States)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.


    The application of neural networks is widely used recently in streamflow forecasting because of it flexible mathematical structure. The relationship between rainfall and streamflow is complex and non-linear, and depends on a large number of parameters that are not available all the time and also are not easy to identify. In such situation, where explicit knowledge of the internal hydrologic system is not available, artificial neural networks can be a good tool to model the non linear hydrologic behavior of watershed without attempting to reach understanding as to the nature of the physical process. In this study we attempt to explore the potential of neural networks in simulating the non-linear relationship between rainfall and streamflow in Anseghmir watershed. And link the two important parameters that generate the dynamic of this complex system. The architecture used in this study is the multilayer feedforward neural network with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm. The ANN generated results are evaluated using MSE and MAE errors and correlation between observed and simulated values of streamflow. The results show that ANNs are a strong tool to approximate complicated nonlinear functions where there is a poor knowledge about the physical process.

  6. Technical note: Cascade of submerged reservoirs as a rainfall-runoff model (United States)

    Kurnatowski, Jacek


    The rainfall-runoff conceptual model as a cascade of submerged linear reservoirs with particular outflows depending on storages of adjoining reservoirs is developed. The model output contains different exponential functions with roots of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind as exponents. The model is applied to instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) and recession curve problems and compared with the analogous results of the Nash cascade. A case study is performed on a basis of 46 recession periods. Obtained results show the usefulness of the model as an alternative concept to the Nash cascade.

  7. Bayesian modeling of rainfall-runoff uncertainty to improve probabilistic forecasts (United States)

    Courbariaux, Marie; Parent, Éric; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Perreault, Luc; Gailhard, Joël; Barbillon, Pierre


    Probabilistic forecasts aim at accounting for uncertainty by producing a predictive distribution of the quantity of interest instead of a single best guess estimate. With regard to river flow forecasts, uncertainty is mainly due (a) to the unknown future rainfalls and temperatures, (b) to the possible inadequacy of the deterministic model mimicking the rainfall-runoff transformation. The first source of uncertainty can nowadays be taken into account using ensemble forecasts as inputs to the rainfall-runoff model (RRM). However, the second source of uncertainty due to the possible RRM misrepresentation remains. A simple way to integrate it consists in adjusting the forecast's density as much as necessary to get a prediction consistent with the observations. This step is called "post-processing". Our work focuses on series of river flow forecasts routinely issued at EDF (Electricity of France) and at Hydro-Québec. We aim at reducing the sharpness loss in the post-processing step while guaranteeing point-wise and temporal consistency. To do so, we write a joint model on the RRM errors along the whole trajectory to be predicted. Point-wise and temporal consistency are then obtained relying on a Bayesian approach. As in Krzysztofowicz's works, we first consider the prior behavior of the natural river flow and then update it by taking into account the likelihood of the information conveyed through RRM's outputs. In the spirit of Markov switching models, we establish a classification of time periods remaining on RRM's state variables through a Probit model. Conditioning on such a classification yields a mixture model of RRM errors. We finally compare the results to EDF's present operational forecasting system. Key words : probabilistic forecasts, sharpness, rainfall-runoff, post-processing, river flow, model error.

  8. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-jun Bao


    Full Text Available A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  9. Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled

  10. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad


    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  11. Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST. (United States)

    Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J


    There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

  12. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chlumecký, M.; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, K.


    Roč. 553, October (2017), s. 350-355 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : genetic algorithm * optimisation * rainfall-runoff modeling * random generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016

  13. Multi-criteria validation of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Modarres


    Full Text Available In this study we propose a comprehensive multi-criteria validation test for rainfall-runoff modeling by artificial neural networks. This study applies 17 global statistics and 3 additional non-parametric tests to evaluate the ANNs. The weakness of global statistics for validation of ANN is demonstrated by rainfall-runoff modeling of the Plasjan Basin in the western region of the Zayandehrud watershed, Iran. Although the global statistics showed that the multi layer perceptron with 4 hidden layers (MLP4 is the best ANN for the basin comparing with other MLP networks and empirical regression model, the non-parametric tests illustrate that neither the ANNs nor the regression model are able to reproduce the probability distribution of observed runoff in validation phase. However, the MLP4 network is the best network to reproduce the mean and variance of the observed runoff based on non-parametric tests. The performance of ANNs and empirical model was also demonstrated for low, medium and high flows. Although the MLP4 network gives the best performance among ANNs for low, medium and high flows based on different statistics, the empirical model shows better results. However, none of the models is able to simulate the frequency distribution of low, medium and high flows according to non-parametric tests. This study illustrates that the modelers should select appropriate and relevant evaluation measures from the set of existing metrics based on the particular requirements of each individual applications.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo A. S. Farias


    Full Text Available The existence of long and reliable streamflow data records is essential to establishing strategies for the operation of water resources systems. In areas where streamflow data records are limited or present missing values, rainfall-runoff models are typically used for reconstruction and/or extension of river flow series. The main objective of this paper is to verify the application of Kohonen Neural Networks (KNN for estimating streamflows in Piancó River. The Piancó River basin is located in the Brazilian semiarid region, an area devoid of hydrometeorological data and characterized by recurrent periods of water scarcity. The KNN are unsupervised neural networks that cluster data into groups according to their similarities. Such models are able to classify data vectors even when there are missing values in some of its components, a very common situation in rainfall-runoff modeling. Twenty two years of rainfall and streamflow monthly data were used in order to calibrate and test the proposed model. Statistical indexes were chose as criteria for evaluating the performance of the KNN model under four different scenarios of input data. The results show that the proposed model was able to provide reliable estimations even when there were missing values in the input data set.

  15. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara


    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  16. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.


    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  17. Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso


    Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

  18. Rainfall-runoff simulation in urban hydology - An indoor physical model (United States)

    Isidoro, Jorge; Silveira, Alexandre; da Silva, António; Gonçalves, Flávio; de Deus, Fábio; dos Reis, Simone


    According to the UN the current levels of urbanization are unprecedented and so is the number and size of the world's largest cities. Moreover, in the next four decades, all of the world's population growth is most likely to take place in urban areas. This growth will include a draw in some of the rural population through rural to urban migration. The increase in size of individual concentrations of people (e.g., cities) is a consequence of the urbanization process that has an important role on the rainfall-runoff process. This reality implies more attention to the study of urban flooding, among other natural hazards. This work aims to present a laboratory (indoor) physical model at a 1:100 scale of an urban area under simulated rainfall (pressurized nozzles). The model, a V-shaped rectangular area (2.00m × 4.00m) with the ability to adjust its longitudinal and transversal slopes, allows placing blocks simulating several geometries of buildings. This model was conceived and developed at the Institute of Science and Technology of the Federal University of Alfenas (MG) in Brazil, where it is used for research and teaching activities. Several experiments were completed in order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over an impervious area with and without buildings, with distinct longitudinal and transversal slopes. Significant differences were found in the shape of the resulting hydrographs. This work will allow assessing the possibility of scaling the results obtained with this indoor model to a larger-scale (1:25 to 1:10) outdoor model which is currently being designed.

  19. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.


    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  20. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters (United States)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.


    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  1. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid


    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  2. [Local sensitivity and its stationarity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling]. (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Huang, Jin-Liang; Du, Peng-Fei; Tu, Zhen-Shun; Li, Qing-Sheng


    Sensitivity analysis of urban-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carried out for urban rainfall runoff modelling based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results showed that Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv are the most sensitive parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow. Concerning total runoff volume, the sensitive indices of Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv were 0.46-1.0, 0.61-1.0, -0.050(-) - 5.9, respectively; while with respect to peak runoff, they were 0.48-0.89, 0.59-0.83, 0(-) -9.6, respectively. In comparison, the most sensitive indices (Morris) for all parameters with regard to total runoff volume and peak flow appeared in the rainfall event with least rainfall; and less sensitive indices happened in the rainfall events with heavier rainfall. Furthermore, there is considerable variability in sensitive indices for each rainfall event. % Zero-Imperv's coefficient variations have the largest values among all parameters for total runoff volume and peak flow, namely 221.24% and 228.10%. On the contrary, the coefficient variations of conductivity among all parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow are the smallest, namely 0.

  3. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing. (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei


    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The application of an analytical probabilistic model for estimating the rainfall-runoff reductions achieved using a rainwater harvesting system. (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungjun; Han, Mooyoung; Lee, Ju Young


    Rainwater harvesting systems cannot only supplement on-site water needs, but also reduce water runoff and lessen downstream flooding. In this study, an existing analytic model for estimating the runoff in urban areas is modified to provide a more economical and effective model that can be used for describing rainwater harvesting. This model calculates the rainfall-runoff reduction by taking into account the catchment, storage tank, and infiltration facility of a water harvesting system; this calculation is based on the water balance equation, and the cumulative distribution, probability density, and average rainfall-runoff functions. This model was applied to a water harvesting system at the Seoul National University in order to verify its practicality. The derived model was useful for evaluating runoff reduction and for designing the storage tank capacity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Case study for the identification and evaluation of rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Kaleris, Vassilios; Langousis, Andreas


    We investigate the modeling assumptions used in two rainfall-runoff models, namely the model ENNS (Nachtnebel et al., 1993) and the model MIKE SHE (, and study how those assumptions affect the effectiveness and quality of model fitting and runoff simulation. To avoid artificial effects caused by simplifications in the equations used in ENNS for the calculation of the outflow from two-outlet linear reservoirs, a new version of the ENNS code is developed that is fully compatible with the corresponding equations used in MIKE SHE. The two models are applied in a real-word case study, using 19-year long historical time-series of daily precipitation, temperature and runoff from Glafkos river basin. The latter is located near the city of Patras, in Peloponnese, Greece. Both models are manually calibrated using five years of the available data, whereas the remaining part of the data is used for model validation. The effectiveness of the models to simulate the runoff process is evaluated using (a) the relative model bias, (b) the criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe (N-S) and (c) the modified N-S-criterion calculated using the logarithmically or square root transformed observed and simulated flows. While both models describe the base- and inter-flow hydrological processes using the same conceptual model of linear reservoirs, they use different modeling assumptions to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone. To that extent, the presented comparison sheds light to (a) the effectiveness of each modeling assumption to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone, (b) the quality of model calibration, and (c) the optimality and robustness of the estimated parameters, common to the two models (thickness of the unsaturated zone, water content, field capacity, wilting point etc.). Differences in the simulated surface runoff, the infiltration and other runoff components, are not caused solely by the different

  6. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo


    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  7. Estimation of synthetic flood design hydrographs using a distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a copula-based single storm rainfall generator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Candela, A; Brigandì, G; Aronica, G. T


    ... (rainfall duration and intensity) via copulas, which describes and models the correlation between two variables independently of the marginal laws involved, coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model, is presented...

  8. Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Meng


    Full Text Available Watershed characteristics such as patterns of land use and land cover (LULC, soil structure and river systems, have substantially changed due to natural and anthropogenic factors. To adapt hydrological models to the changing characteristics of watersheds, one of the feasible strategies is to explicitly estimate the changed parameters. However, few approaches have been dedicated to these non-stationary conditions. In this study, we employ an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF technique with a constrained parameter evolution scheme to trace the parameter changes. This technique is coupled to a rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Xinanjiang (XAJ model. In addition to a stationary condition, we designed three typical non-stationary conditions, including sudden, gradual and rotational changes with respect to two behavioral parameters of the XAJ. Synthetic experiments demonstrated that the EnKF-based method can trace the three types of parameter changes in real time. This method shows robust performance even for the scenarios of high-level uncertainties within rainfall input, modeling and observations, and it holds an implication for detecting changes in watershed characteristics. Coupling this method with a rainfall-runoff model is useful to adapt the model to non-stationary conditions, thereby improving flood simulations and predictions.

  9. Influence of lag time on event-based rainfall-runoff modeling using the data driven approach (United States)

    Talei, Amin; Chua, Lloyd H. C.


    SummaryThis study investigated the effect of lag time on the performance of data-driven models, specifically the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), in event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. Rainfall and runoff data for a catchment in Singapore were chosen for this study. For the purpose of this study, lag time was determined from cross-correlation analysis of the rainfall and runoff time series. Rainfall antecedents were the only inputs of the models and direct runoff was the desired output. An ANFIS model with three sub-models defined based on three different ranges of lag times was developed. The performance of the sub-models was compared with previously developed ANFIS models and the physically-based Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The ANFIS sub-models gave significantly superior results in terms of the RMSE, r2, CE and the prediction of the peak discharge, compared to other ANFIS models where the lag time was not considered. In addition, the ANFIS sub-models provided results that were comparable with results from SWMM. It is thus concluded that the lag time plays an important role in the selection of events for training and testing of data-driven models in event-based rainfall-runoff modeling.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani


    Full Text Available Increasing importance of watershed management during last decades highlighted the need for sufficient data and accurate estimation of rainfall and runoff within watersheds. Therefore, various conceptual models have been developed with parameters based on observed data. Since further investigations depend on these parameters, it is important to accurately estimate them. This study by utilizing various methods, tries to estimate Nash rainfall-runoff model parameters and then evaluate the reliability of parameter estimation methods; moment, least square error, maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and genetic algorithm. Results based on a case study on the data from Ammameh watershed in Central Iran, indicate that the genetic algorithm method, which has been developed based on artificial intelligence, more accurately estimates Nash’s model parameters.

  11. Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Moretti


    Full Text Available The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero River. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The hydrological model is first calibrated by using a 1-year record of hourly meteorological data and river flows observed at the outlet of the 1294 km2 wide Secchia River basin, of which the Riarbero is a tributary. The model is then validated by performing a 100-year long simulation of synthetic river flow data, which allowed us to compare the simulated and observed flood frequency distributions at the Secchia River outlet and the internal cross river section of Cavola Bridge, where the basin area is 337 km2. Finally, another simulation of hourly river flows was performed by referring to the outlet of the Riarbero River, therefore allowing us to estimate the related flood frequency distribution. The results were validated by using estimates of peak river flow obtained by applying hydrological similarity principles and a regional method. The results show that the flood flow estimated through the application of the distributed model is consistent with the estimate provided by the regional procedure as well as the behaviors of the river banks. Conversely, the method based on hydrological similarity delivers an estimate that seems to be not as reliable. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of

  12. Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series on the results of rainfall runoff simulations in urban drainage modelling (United States)

    Krämer, Stefan; Rohde, Sophia; Schröder, Kai; Belli, Aslan; Maßmann, Stefanie; Schönfeld, Martin; Henkel, Erik; Fuchs, Lothar


    The design of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models requires long, continuous rainfall time series with high temporal resolution. However, suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, usual design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable rainfall data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic rainfall data as input for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. Synthetic rainfall time series of three different precipitation model approaches, - one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model-, are provided for three catchments with different sewer system characteristics in different climate regions in Germany: - Hamburg (northern Germany): maritime climate, mean annual rainfall: 770 mm; combined sewer system length: 1.729 km (City center of Hamburg), storm water sewer system length (Hamburg Harburg): 168 km - Brunswick (Lower Saxony, northern Germany): transitional climate from maritime to continental, mean annual rainfall: 618 mm; sewer system length: 278 km, connected impervious area: 379 ha, height difference: 27 m - Friburg in Brisgau (southern Germany): Central European transitional climate, mean annual rainfall: 908 mm; sewer system length: 794 km, connected impervious area: 1 546 ha, height difference 284 m Hydrodynamic models are set up for each catchment to simulate rainfall runoff processes in the sewer systems. Long term event time series are extracted from the - three different synthetic rainfall time series (comprising up to 600 years continuous rainfall) provided for each catchment and - observed gauge rainfall (reference rainfall) according national hydraulic design

  13. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson


    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  14. Export Mechanisms of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTSs) in Urban Land Uses during Rainfall-Runoff Events: Experimental and Modeling Studies (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Luo, X.; Lin, Z.


    The urban environment has a variety of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), such as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury. Soil in pervious lands and dust deposited on impervious surfaces are two major sinks of PTSs in urbanized areas, which could contribute significant nonpoint source loadings of PTSs to adjacent waterbodies during rainfall-runoff events and therefore jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. However, PTSs have been much less understood regarding their export mechanisms in urban land uses, and efforts to model nonpoint source pollution processes of PTSs have been rare. We designed and performed in-lab rainfall-runoff simulation experiments to investigate transport of PAHs and mercury by runoff from urban soils. Organic petrology analysis (OPA) techniques were introduced to analyze the soil and sediment compositions. Our study revealed the limitation of the classic enrichment theory which attributes enrichment of pollutants in eroded sediment solely to the sediment's particle size distribution and adopts simple relationships between enrichment ratio and sediment flux. We found that carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil are the direct and major sorbents for PAHs and mercury, and highly different in content, mobility and adsorption capacity for the PTSs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon components largely control the transport of soil PAHs, while humic substances have a dominant influence on the transport of soil mercury. A model was further developed to estimate the enrichment ratio of PAHs, which innovatively applies the fugacity concept.We also conducted field studies on export of PAHs by runoff from urban roads. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of PAH buildup and washoff on urban roads. The dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case

  15. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo


    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  16. A method to employ the spatial organization of catchments into semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas


    A distributed or semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model should consider the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject to a certain spatial organization which results in archetypes of combined characteristics. In order to reproduce the natural rainfall-runoff response the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organization of the catchment are desirable. In this study the width-function approach is utilized as a basic characteristic to analyse the succession of catchment characteristics. By applying this technique we were able to assess the context of catchment properties like soil or topology along the streamflow length and the network geomorphology, giving indications of the spatial organization of a catchment. Moreover, this information and this technique have been implemented in an algorithm for automated sub-basin ascertainment, which included the definition of zones within the newly defined sub-basins. The objective was to provide sub-basins that were less heterogeneous than common separation schemes. The algorithm was applied to two parameters characterizing the topology and soil of four mid-European watersheds. Resulting partitions indicated a wide range of applicability for the method and the algorithm. Additionally, the intersection of derived zones for different catchment characteristics could give insights into sub-basin similarities. Finally, a HBV96 case study demonstrated the potential benefits of modelling with the new subdivision technique.

  17. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    increasingly more acute. Effective dis water has become very essential. Urba management is no longer based on th collection and disposal of storm water on the application of workable model storm drainage designs. Sound storm water design practices he compatible drainage systems, minimize. Nigerian Journal of Techn.

  18. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model (United States)

    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha


    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  19. Rainfall-runoff modeling in a flashy tropical watershed using the distributed HL-RDHM model (United States)

    Fares, Ali; Awal, Ripendra; Michaud, Jene; Chu, Pao-Shin; Fares, Samira; Kodama, Kevin; Rosener, Matt


    Many watersheds in Hawai'i are flash flood prone due to their small contributing areas and frequent intense rainfall. Motivated by the possibility of developing an operational flood forecasting system, this study evaluated the performance of the National Weather Service (NWS) model, the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) in simulating the hydrology of the flood-prone Hanalei watershed in Kaua'i, Hawai'i. This rural watershed is very wet and has strong spatial rainfall gradients. Application of HL-RDHM to Hanalei watershed required (i) modifying the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) coordinate system; (ii) generating precipitation grids from rain gauge data, and (iii) generating parameters for Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) and routing parameter grids for the modified HRAP coordinate system. Results were obtained for several spatial resolutions. Hourly basin-average rainfall calculated from one HRAP resolution grid (4 km × 4 km) was too low and inaccurate. More realistic rainfall and more accurate streamflow predictions were obtained with the ½ and ¼ HRAP grids. For a one year period with the best precipitation data, the performance of HL-RDHM was satisfactory even without calibration for basin-averaged and distributed a priori parameter grids. Calibration and validation of HL-RDHM were conducted using four-year data set each. The model reasonably matched the observed peak discharges and time to peak during calibration and validation periods. The performance of model was assessed using the following three statistical measures: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and Percent bias (PBIAS). Overall, HL-RDHM's performance was ;very good (NSE > 0.75, PBIAS flood forecasting capability of the model was accessed using four accuracy measures (probability of false detection, false alarm ratio, critical success index, and probability of detection) for three return periods 1.005, 1

  20. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.


    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  1. Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration (United States)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan; Shawn Matott, L.


    GLUE is one of the most commonly used informal methodologies for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Despite the ease-of-use of GLUE, it involves a number of subjective decisions such as the strategy for identifying the behavioural solutions. This study evaluates the impact of behavioural solution identification strategies in GLUE on the quality of model output uncertainty. Moreover, two new strategies are developed to objectively identify behavioural solutions. The first strategy considers Pareto-based ranking of parameter sets, while the second one is based on ranking the parameter sets based on an aggregated criterion. The proposed strategies, as well as the traditional strategies in the literature, are evaluated with respect to reliability (coverage of observations by the envelope of model outcomes) and sharpness (width of the envelope of model outcomes) in different numerical experiments. These experiments include multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation of three rainfall-runoff models with different number of parameters. To demonstrate the importance of behavioural solution identification strategy more appropriately, GLUE is also compared with two other informal multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation methods (Pareto optimization and DDS-AU). The results show that the model output uncertainty varies with the behavioural solution identification strategy, and furthermore, a robust GLUE implementation would require considering multiple behavioural solution identification strategies and choosing the one that generates the desired balance between sharpness and reliability. The proposed objective strategies prove to be the best options in most of the case studies investigated in this research. Implementing such an approach for a high-dimensional calibration problem enables GLUE to generate robust results in comparison with Pareto optimization and DDS-AU.

  2. A quasi-three-dimensional model for predicting rainfall-runoff processes in a forested catchment in Southern Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Koivusalo


    Full Text Available Runoff generation in a forested catchment (0.18 km2 was simulated using a quasi-three-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. The model was formulated over a finite grid where water movement was assumed to be dominantly vertical in the unsaturated soil zone and horizontal in the saturated soil. The vertical soil moisture distribution at each grid cell was calculated using a conceptual approximation to the one-dimensional Richards equation. The approximation allowed the use of a simple soil surface boundary condition and an efficient solution to the water table elevation over the finite grid. The approximation was coupled with a two-dimensional ground water model to calculate lateral soil water movement between the grid cells and exfiltration over saturated areas, where runoff was produced by the saturation-excess mechanism. Runoff was an input to a channel network, which was modelled as a nonlinear reservoir. The proposed approximation for the vertical soil moisture distribution in unsaturated soil compared well to a numerical solution of the Richards equation during shallow water table conditions, but was less satisfactory during prolonged dry periods. The simulation of daily catchment outflow was successful with the exception of underprediction of extremely high peak flows. The calculated water table depth compared satisfactorily with the measurements. An overall comparison with the earlier results of tracer studies indicated that the modelled contribution of direct rainfall/snowmelt in streamflow was higher than the isotopically traced fraction of event-water in runoff. The seasonal variation in the modelled runoff-contributing areas was similar to that in the event-water-contributing areas from the tracer analysis.

  3. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements and tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Kuzmin, V.; Solomatine, D.P.


    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall–runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialized models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them to form a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  4. Uncertainty analysis in rainfall-runoff modelling : Application of machine learning techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shrestha, D.l.


    This thesis presents powerful machine learning (ML) techniques to build predictive models of uncertainty with application to hydrological models. Two different methods are developed and tested. First one focuses on parameter uncertainty analysis by emulating the results of Monte Carlo simulations of

  5. Uncertainty Analysis in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: Application of Machine Learning Techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shrestha, D.L.


    This thesis presents powerful machine learning (ML) techniques to build predictive models of uncertainty with application to hydrological models. Two different methods are developed and tested. First one focuses on parameter uncertainty analysis by emulating the results of Monte Carlo simulations of

  6. Development of an flood-inundation model nesting a grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for impact assessment of water-related disasters (United States)

    Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.


    A risk assessment of water-related disaster under a changing climate has been highly concerned recently. To examine a change of the magnitude of inundation disasters is an important issue for a risk assessment of water-related disasters. It takes huge computational cost to conduct many 2D-inundation simulations for a whole basin under various external force scenarios. If inundation simulations are conducted only for a possible inundation area, it will highly reduce the computational time. To achieve this purpose, a flood-inundation model which nests a distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed. First, as a rainfall-runoff model to predict flood discharge, a distributed hydrologic model in 30 second spatial resolution, 1K-DHM ( was developed, which uses digital elevation and flow direction information in HydroSHED developed by the USGS. 1K-DHM routes spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff using kinematic wave approximation from an upper grid to a lower grid along a flow direction map. Second, the flood-inundation model nesting the rainfall-runoff was developed. The framework of the inundation model is as follows. Setting river discharge simulated by 1K-DHM as a boundary condition, the flood-inundation model calculates river discharge and flooded water by the 1D and 2D inertial model which neglects the advective term in a momentum equation proposed by Bates et. al. (J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010). The inundation model considers a gradient of water stage with lower computational cost than the diffusive wave model. A devised discretization scheme (Bates et. al.: J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010) enhances the inundation model to capture the relevant mechanisms of flood propagation with very high computational performance and stability. The distributed runoff model and the inundation model use the same topographic data, thus river channel networks in the flood-inundation model with the 3 second resolution falls

  7. A state-space representation of the GR4J rainfall-runoff model (United States)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles


    In hydrology, the majority of conceptual models are available only in discrete form. This means that the formulations of the models are based on discrete equations instead of continuous ordinary differential equations (ODE) (see Clark and Kavetski, 2010). The time-step is often "hardcoded" in the model formulation. This can represent a problem in particular for creating a time step-variable model. Furthermore, the fluxes in the models are treated sequentially. For example, in the simple GR4J model, the precipitations (if any) are first added to the production store. Then, the updated level is used to compute the percolation from the store. The resulting level obtained at the end of the time step is different to the level which would be obtained if the two operations (i.e. addition of precipitation and percolation) were done simultaneously. Mathematically, this corresponds to an approximation of ODE solution which is called "operator splitting". This allows to solve an equation even if finding an exact solution is impossible but the error produced by this approximation is difficult to determine. For this reason, it is not easy to separate the numerical error of the resolution from the conceptual error. It could represent an important issue to better understand model behaviour and to identify possible improvements. The aim of this presentation is to detail a state-space representation of the simple GR4J model. The state-space representation aims to represent GR4J by an ODE system which provides the internal variables of the model at all times. We will present here the choices made to adapt GR4J to the state-space formulation and to numerically solve this system. Modifications of the model's equations were also made to adapt the model to lower time step in case it would be used for a time step-variable application. The results obtained with this state-space representation of GR4J were very similar to those of the original model in terms of performances and hydrographs

  8. Parameter Estimation in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Distributed Versions of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michala Jakubcová


    Full Text Available The presented paper provides the analysis of selected versions of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. The tested versions of the PSO were combined with the shuffling mechanism, which splits the model population into complexes and performs distributed PSO optimization. One of them is a new proposed PSO modification, APartW, which enhances the global exploration and local exploitation in the parametric space during the optimization process through the new updating mechanism applied on the PSO inertia weight. The performances of four selected PSO methods were tested on 11 benchmark optimization problems, which were prepared for the special session on single-objective real-parameter optimization CEC 2005. The results confirm that the tested new APartW PSO variant is comparable with other existing distributed PSO versions, AdaptW and LinTimeVarW. The distributed PSO versions were developed for finding the solution of inverse problems related to the estimation of parameters of hydrological model Bilan. The results of the case study, made on the selected set of 30 catchments obtained from MOPEX database, show that tested distributed PSO versions provide suitable estimates of Bilan model parameters and thus can be used for solving related inverse problems during the calibration process of studied water balance hydrological model.

  9. Rainfall-runoff modeling at Jinsha River basin by integrated neural network with discrete wavelet transform (United States)

    Tayyab, Muhammad; Zhou, Jianzhong; Dong, Xiaohua; Ahmad, Ijaz; Sun, Na


    Artificial neural network (ANN) models combined with time series decomposition are widely employed to calculate the river flows; however, the influence of the application of diverse decomposing approaches on assessing correctness is inadequately compared and examined. This study investigates the certainty of monthly streamflow by applying ANNs including feed forward back propagation neural network and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) models integrated with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), at Jinsha River basin in the upper reaches of Yangtze River of China. The effect of the noise factor of the decomposed time series on the prediction correctness has also been argued in this paper. Data have been analyzed by comparing the simulation outputs of the models with the correlation coefficient (R) root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. Results show that time series decomposition technique DWT contributes in improving the accuracy of streamflow prediction, as compared to single ANN's. The detailed comparative analysis showed that the RBFNN integrated with DWT has better forecasting capabilities as compared to other developed models. Moreover, for high-precision streamflow prediction, the high-frequency section of the original time series is very crucial, which is understandable in flood season.

  10. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken


    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  11. Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant? (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel


    Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any

  12. Influence of rainfall spatial variability on rainfall-runoff modelling: Benefit of a simulation approach? (United States)

    Emmanuel, I.; Andrieu, H.; Leblois, E.; Janey, N.; Payrastre, O.


    No consensus has yet been reached regarding the influence of rainfall spatial variability on runoff modelling at catchment outlets. To eliminate modelling and measurement errors, in addition to controlling rainfall variability and both the characteristics and hydrological behaviour of catchments, we propose to proceed by simulation. We have developed a simulation chain that combines a stream network model, a rainfall simulator and a distributed hydrological model (with four production functions and a distributed transfer function). Our objective here is to use this simulation chain as a simplified test bed in order to better understand the impact of the spatial variability of rainfall forcing. We applied the chain to contrasted situations involving catchments ranging from a few tens to several hundreds of square km2, thus corresponding to urban and peri-urban catchments for which surface runoff constitutes the dominant process. The results obtained confirm that the proposed simulation approach is helpful to better understand the influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment response. We have shown that significant dispersion exists not only between the various simulation scenarios (defined by a rainfall configuration and a catchment configuration), but also within each simulation scenario. These results show that the organisation of rainfall during the study event over the study catchment plays an important role, leading us to examine rainfall variability indexes capable of summarising the influence of rainfall spatial organisation on the catchment response. Thanks to the simulation chain, we have tested the variability indexes of Zoccatelli et al. (2010) and improved them by proposing two other indexes.

  13. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna


    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...

  14. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage


    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  15. Integration and calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the framework of a decision support system for river basin management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Götzinger


    Full Text Available Water balance models provide significant input to integrated models that are used to simulate river basin processes. However, one of the primary problems involves the coupling and simultaneous calibration of rainfall-runoff and groundwater models. This problem manifests itself through circular arguments - the hydrologic model is modified to calculate highly discretized groundwater recharge rates as input to the groundwater model which provides modeled base flow for the flood-routing module of the rainfall-runoff model. A possibility to overcome this problem using a modified version of the HBV Model is presented in this paper. Regionalisation and optimization methods lead to objective and efficient calibration despite large numbers of parameters. The representation of model parameters by transfer functions of catchment characteristics enables consistent parameter estimation. By establishing such relationships, models are calibrated for the parameters of the transfer functions instead of the model parameters themselves. Simulated annealing, using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficients of variable temporal aggregation, assists in efficient parameterisations. The simulations are compared to observed discharge and groundwater recharge modeled by the State Institute for Environmental Protection Baden-Württemberg using the model TRAIN-GWN.

  16. Rainfall-runoff modelling using different estimators of precipitation data in the Carpathian mountain catchments (South Poland) (United States)

    Kasina, Michal; Ziemski, Michal; Niedbala, Jerzy; Malota, Agnieszka


    Precipitation observations are an essential element of flood forecasting systems. Rain gauges, radars, satellite sensors and forecasts from high resolution numerical weather prediction models are a part of precipitation monitoring networks. These networks collect rainfall data that are further provided to hydrological models to produce forecasts. The main goal of this work is to assess the usage of different precipitation data sources in rainfall-runoff modelling with reference to Flash Flood Early Warning System. STUDY AREA Research was carried out in the upper parts of the Sola and Raba river catchments. Both of the rivers begin their course in the southern part of the Western Beskids (Outer Eastern Carpathians; southern Poland). For the purpose of this study, both rivers are taken to comprise the catchments upstream of the gauging stations at Zywiec (Sola) and Stroza (Raba). The upper Sola river catchment encompasses an area of 785 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 342 to 1236 m above sea level, while the Raba river catchment occupies an area of 644 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 300 to 1266 m above sea level. The catchments are underlain mainly by flysch sediments. The average annual amount of precipitation for the Sola River catchment is between 750 and 1300 mm and for the Raba river catchment is in the range of 800-1000 mm. METHODS AND RESULTS This work assesses the sensitivity of a lumped hydrological model DHI's Nedbør-Afrstrømnings-Model (NAM) to different sources of rainfall estimates: rain gauges, radar and satellite as well as predicted precipitation amount from high resolution numerical weather prediction models (e.g. ALADIN). The main steps of validation procedure are: i) comparison of rain gauge data with other precipitation data sources, ii) calibration of the hydrological model (using historical, long time series of rain gauge data treated as "ground truth"), iii) validation using different precipitation data sources as an input, iii

  17. Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar (United States)

    Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine


    The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

  18. Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge (United States)

    Chikamori, H.


    Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge Hidetaka Chikamori Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, JAPAN A rainfall-runoff model is generally calibrated by minimizing error in calculated runoff using records of hydrological components, that is, observed rainfall, discharge and observed or estimated evapotranpiration. However, calibration using only hydrological components sometimes produces a model with strange structure that does not reflect physical properties of an objective basin. It is probably due to error in referred hydrological records. In this study, the author calibrated a rainfall runoff model using not only hydrological record but also chemical and isotopic data of discharge so as to obtain a reasonably structured model from multiple viewpoints. Besides, the model structure was improved in order to simulate isotopic characteristics well. It is well known that ratio of surface flow in total flow can be estimated by change in concentration of cation or anion. Relative concentration of 18O, δ18O is well used for separating runoff of retained water in soil as "old water" from total runoff. A Long-and-Short Term Tank Model (LST2 Model) was applied to three Hinoki Cypress catchments in Mie experimental basin located in the middle of Japan. One of these catchments is of well-maintained planted forest, and two are of poor-maintained planted. A model was calibrated by Differential Evolution for each catchment using hydrological data, concentration of K+ and δ18O. In these catchments, Gomi et al (2008) showed that concentration of K+ well expresses ratio of surface runoff to total runoff, and that δ18O subsurface runoff to total runoff. The results show that an original version of LST2 Model cannot simulated delayed subsurface flow ratio estimated by δ18O, although it well simulates surface flow ratio estimated by

  19. Data-driven input variable selection for rainfall-runoff modeling using binary-coded particle swarm optimization and Extreme Learning Machines (United States)

    Taormina, Riccardo; Chau, Kwok-Wing


    Selecting an adequate set of inputs is a critical step for successful data-driven streamflow prediction. In this study, we present a novel approach for Input Variable Selection (IVS) that employs Binary-coded discrete Fully Informed Particle Swarm optimization (BFIPS) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM) to develop fast and accurate IVS algorithms. A scheme is employed to encode the subset of selected inputs and ELM specifications into the binary particles, which are evolved using single objective and multi-objective BFIPS optimization (MBFIPS). The performances of these ELM-based methods are assessed using the evaluation criteria and the datasets included in the comprehensive IVS evaluation framework proposed by Galelli et al. (2014). From a comparison with 4 major IVS techniques used in their original study it emerges that the proposed methods compare very well in terms of selection accuracy. The best performers were found to be (1) a MBFIPS-ELM algorithm based on the concurrent minimization of an error function and the number of selected inputs, and (2) a BFIPS-ELM algorithm based on the minimization of a variant of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The first technique is arguably the most accurate overall, and is able to reach an almost perfect specification of the optimal input subset for a partially synthetic rainfall-runoff experiment devised for the Kentucky River basin. In addition, MBFIPS-ELM allows for the determination of the relative importance of the selected inputs. On the other hand, the BFIPS-ELM is found to consistently reach high accuracy scores while being considerably faster. By extrapolating the results obtained on the IVS test-bed, it can be concluded that the proposed techniques are particularly suited for rainfall-runoff modeling applications characterized by high nonlinearity in the catchment dynamics.

  20. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques (United States)

    Chang, Tak Kwin; Talei, Amin; Alaghmand, Sina; Ooi, Melanie Po-Leen


    Input selection for data-driven rainfall-runoff models is an important task as these models find the relationship between rainfall and runoff by direct mapping of inputs to output. In this study, two different input selection methods were used: cross-correlation analysis (CCA), and a combination of mutual information and cross-correlation analyses (MICCA). Selected inputs were used to develop adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in Sungai Kayu Ara basin, Selangor, Malaysia. The study catchment has 10 rainfall stations and one discharge station located at the outlet of the catchment. A total of 24 rainfall-runoff events (10-min interval) from 1996 to 2004 were selected from which 18 events were used for training and the remaining 6 were reserved for validating (testing) the models. The results of ANFIS models then were compared against the ones obtained by conceptual model HEC-HMS. The CCA and MICCA methods selected the rainfall inputs only from 2 (stations 1 and 5) and 3 (stations 1, 3, and 5) rainfall stations, respectively. ANFIS model developed based on MICCA inputs (ANFIS-MICCA) performed slightly better than the one developed based on CCA inputs (ANFIS-CCA). ANFIS-CCA and ANFIS-MICCA were able to perform comparably to HEC-HMS model where rainfall data of all 10 stations had been used; however, in peak estimation, ANFIS-MICCA was the best model. The sensitivity analysis on HEC-HMS was conducted by recalibrating the model by using the same selected rainfall stations for ANFIS. It was concluded that HEC-HMS model performance deteriorates if the number of rainfall stations reduces. In general, ANFIS was found to be a reliable alternative for HEC-HMS in cases whereby not all rainfall stations are functioning. This study showed that the selected stations have received the highest total rain and rainfall intensity (stations 3 and 5). Moreover, the contributing rainfall stations selected by CCA and MICCA were found to be located near the outlet of

  1. Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile (United States)

    Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón


    Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

  2. Improving flash flood forecasting through coupling of a distributed hydrologic rainfall-runoff model (HL-RDHM) with a hydraulic model (BreZo) (United States)

    Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.


    Flash floods can be the most devastating events causing heavy life and economic losses. Improving flash flood warning in regions prone to hydrologic extremes is one highest priority of watershed managers. In this study, a distributed flash flood modeling system is presented. This system consists of advantages of a distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) and the appropriate level of physical representation of channel flow through a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo). HL-RDHM is employed as a rainfall-runoff generator for runoff flow simulation, while the output from HL-RDHM is then used as input for the BreZo model, which simulates fine resolution flow in the river/channel system. The surface runoff generated from HL-RDHM is zoned to sub-catchment outlets and each outlet is considered as a point source to the channels. Multiple point sources are then simulated within BreZo to produce flash flood simulations in spatial and temporal distribution for the particular river/channel system and/or floodplain. A case study was carried out for ELDO2 catchment in Oklahoma. ArcGIS Terrain Processing tools were used to divide ELDO2 (10m resolution) into sub-catchments with outlets. The surface flow from HL-RDHM was re-gridded to 10m resolution, then zoned to the 57 sub-catchments. The results obtained are very promising not only for better simulating the total discharge at the watershed outlet, but also for capturing the spatial distribution of flooded area in the floodplains. Flooded map of ELDO2 (in meters) during the extreme event starting at 06/21/2000 10:00:00

  3. Using isotopes to constrain water flux and age estimates in snow-influenced catchments using the STARR (Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff) model (United States)

    Ala-aho, Pertti; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris


    Tracer-aided hydrological models are increasingly used to reveal fundamentals of runoff generation processes and water travel times in catchments. Modelling studies integrating stable water isotopes as tracers are mostly based in temperate and warm climates, leaving catchments with strong snow influences underrepresented in the literature. Such catchments are challenging, as the isotopic tracer signals in water entering the catchments as snowmelt are typically distorted from incoming precipitation due to fractionation processes in seasonal snowpack. We used the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff (STARR) model to simulate fluxes, storage, and mixing of water and tracers, as well as estimating water ages in three long-term experimental catchments with varying degrees of snow influence and contrasting landscape characteristics. In the context of northern catchments the sites have exceptionally long and rich data sets of hydrometric data and - most importantly - stable water isotopes for both rain and snow conditions. To adapt the STARR model for sites with strong snow influence, we used a novel parsimonious calculation scheme that takes into account the isotopic fractionation through snow sublimation and snowmelt. The modified STARR setup simulated the streamflows, isotope ratios, and snow pack dynamics quite well in all three catchments. From this, our simulations indicated contrasting median water ages and water age distributions between catchments brought about mainly by differences in topography and soil characteristics. However, the variable degree of snow influence in catchments also had a major influence on the stream hydrograph, storage dynamics, and water age distributions, which was captured by the model. Our study suggested that snow sublimation fractionation processes can be important to include in tracer-aided modelling for catchments with seasonal snowpack, while the influence of fractionation during snowmelt could not be unequivocally

  4. Use of KNN technique to improve the efficiency of SCE-UA optimisation method applied to the calibration of HBV Rainfall-Runoff model (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Bargaoui, Z.


    The Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff models can be viewed as an optimisation problem involving an objective function that measures the model performance expressed as a distance between observed and calculated discharges. Effectiveness (ability to find the optimum) and efficiency (cost expressed in number of objective function evaluations to reach the optimum) are the main criteria of choose of the optimisation method. SCE-UA is known as one of the most effective and efficient optimisation method. In this work we tried to improve the SCE-UA efficiency, in the case of the calibration of HBV model by using KNN technique to estimate the objective function. In fact after a number of iterations by SCE-UA, when objective function is evaluated by model simulation, a data base of parameter explored and respective objective function values is constituted. Within this data base it is proposed to estimate the objective function in further iterations, by an interpolation using nearest neighbours in a normalised parameter space with weighted Euclidean distance. Weights are chosen proportional to the sensitivity of parameter to objective function that gives more importance to sensitive parameter. Evaluation of model output is done through the objective function RV=R2- w |RD| where R2 is Nash Sutcliffe coefficient related to discharges, w : a weight and RD the relative bias. Applied to theoretical and practical cases in several catchments under different climatic conditions : Rottweil (Germany) and Tessa, Barbra, and Sejnane (Tunisia), the hybrid SCE-UA presents efficiency better then that of initial SCE-UA by about 20 to 30 %. By using other techniques as parameter space transformation and SCE-UA modification (2), we may obtain an algorithm two to three times faster. (1) Avi Ostfeld, Shani Salomons, "A hybrid genetic-instance learning algorithm for CE*QAL-W2 calibration", Journal of Hydrology 310 (2005) 122-125 (2) Nitin Mutil and Shie-Yui Liong, "Improved robustness and Efficiency

  5. Assessing the impact of climate change on flood types in the Austrian and French Alps using the stochastic weather generator TripleM and rainfall-runoff modeling (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Turkington, Thea


    We developed a new methodology for classifying flood types, which appears to be particularly suitable for climate change impact studies. Climate change is not only expected to change the magnitude and frequency of Alpine floods but also the types of floods. The distribution of existing flood types may change and new flood types may develop. A shift away from solely focusing on the magnitude and frequency of floods in flood hazard assessment and disaster risk management towards the causal types of floods is required as the types and therefore also timing and characteristics of floods will have implications on both the local social and ecological systems. The flood types are classified using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators, capturing differences in rainfall amounts, antecedent rainfall, snow-cover, and the day of the year. In a first step, we used the open-source multi-site weather generator TripleM coupled with the fast conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV to extrapolate the observed discharge time series and generate a large inventory of different types of observed flood events and flood types. The weather generator was then parameterized based on projections of rainfall and temperature to simulate future flood types and events. We selected four climate projections (mild dry, mild wet, warm dry and warm wet conditions) from a set of 15, which originated from the EURO-CORDEX dataset. We worked in two catchments in the Austrian and French Alps that have been affected by floods in the past: the medium-sized Salzach catchment in Austria, which is dominated by rainfall driven flooding during the summer and autumn period, and the small Ubaye catchment in the Southern French Alps, which is dominated by rain-on-snow floods in the spring period. The analysis of the simulated future flood types shows clear changes in the distribution and characteristics of flood types in both study areas under the different climate projections examined.

  6. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  7. Use of distributed snow cover information to update snow storages of a lumped rainfall-runoff model operationally (United States)

    Lisniak, D.; Meissner, D.; Klein, B.; Pinzinger, R.


    The German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) offers navigational water-level forecasting services on the Federal Waterways, like the rivers Rhine and Danube. In cooperation with the Federal States this mandate also includes the forecasting of flood events. For the River Rhine, the most frequented inland waterway in Central Europe, the BfG employs a hydrological model (HBV) coupled to a hydraulic model (SOBEK) by the FEWS-framework to perform daily forecasts of water-levels operationally. Sensitivity studies have shown that the state of soil water storage in the hydrological model is a major factor of uncertainty when performing short- to medium-range forecasts some days ahead. Taking into account the various additional sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, including measurement uncertainties, it is essential to estimate an optimal initial state of the soil water storage before propagating it in time, forced by meteorological forecasts, and transforming it into discharge. We show, that using the Ensemble Kalman Filter these initial states can be updated straightforward under certain hydrologic conditions. However, this approach is not sufficient if the runoff is mainly generated by snow melt. Since the snow cover evolution is modeled rather poorly by the HBV-model in our operational setting, flood events caused by snow melt are consistently underestimated by the HBV-model, which has long term effects in basins characterized by a nival runoff regime. Thus, it appears beneficial to update the snow storage of the HBV-model with information derived from regionalized snow cover observations. We present a method to incorporate spatially distributed snow cover observations into the lumped HBV-model. We show the plausibility of this approach and asses the benefits of a coupled snow cover and soil water storage updating, which combine a direct insertion with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The Ensemble Kalman Filter used here takes into account the

  8. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.


    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  9. Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods (United States)

    Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya


    Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

  10. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model. (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A


    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Rainfall-runoff modelling and palaeoflood hydrology applied to reconstruct centennial scale records of flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Benito


    Full Text Available In this study we propose a multi-source data approach for quantifying long-term flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers. The methodology is applied to the Buffels River, at 9000 km2 the largest ephemeral river in Namaqualand (NW South Africa, a region with scarce stream flow records limiting research investigating hydrological response to global change. Daily discharge and annual flood series (1965–2006 were estimated from a distributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (TETIS using rainfall gauge records located within the catchment. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected during a two year monitoring programme (2005–2006 at two stream flow stations, one each in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment. In addition to the modelled flow records, non-systematic flood data were reconstructed using both sedimentary and documentary evidence. The palaeoflood record identified at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr; with the largest floods reaching a minimum discharge of 255 m3 s−1 (450 yr return period in the upper basin, and 510 m3 s−1 (100 yr return period in the lower catchment. Since AD 1925, the flood hydrology of the Buffels River has been characterised by a decrease in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods, with palaeoflood discharges (period 1500–1921 five times greater than the largest modelled floods during the period 1965–2006. Large floods generated the highest hydrograph volumes, however their contribution to aquifer recharge is limited as this depends on other factors such as flood duration and storage capacity of the unsaturated zone prior to the flood. Floods having average return intervals of 5–10 yr (120–140 m3 s−1 and flowing for 12 days are able to fully saturate the Spektakel aquifer in the lower Buffels River basin. Alluvial aquifer storage capacity limiting potential recharge

  12. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter


    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  13. Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir (United States)

    Toth, Elena


    The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation

  14. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Morin and Cluff runoff model was calibrated and validated using measured rainfall-runoff data. Appropriate values for final infiltration rate (If), surface storage (SD) and the crusting parameter (ã) were found to be: 10; 2 mm for NT and 5 mm for CT; 0.4 mm-1; respectively. The runoff (R)/rainfall (P) ratio (R/P) gave ...

  15. Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois (United States)

    Duncker, James J.; Melching, Charles S.


    Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of

  16. A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures (United States)

    Kossieris, Panagiotis; Makropoulos, Christos; Onof, Christian; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris


    Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 min time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-min time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-min rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.

  17. Genetic algorithm optimized rainfall-runoff fuzzy inference system for row crop watersheds with claypan soils (United States)

    The fuzzy logic algorithm has the ability to describe knowledge in a descriptive human-like manner in the form of simple rules using linguistic variables, and provides a new way of modeling uncertain or naturally fuzzy hydrological processes like non-linear rainfall-runoff relationships. Fuzzy infe...

  18. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik


    and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall...... Equations (SDEs) that separates input and model structure uncertainty from observation uncertainty and allows updating of model states in real-time. The results show that the optimal simulation (off-line) model is based on the output error method whereas the optimal prediction (on-line) model is based...... necessary but the statistical assumptions were nevertheless not 100% justified. The residual analysis showed that significant autocorrelation was present for all simulation models. We believe users of formal approaches to uncertainty evaluation within hydrology and within environmental modelling in general...

  19. Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing (United States)

    Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix


    It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter

  20. Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of a Rainfall-Runoff Model with the Combined Use of EPA-SWMM and Genetic Algorithm (United States)

    Del Giudice, Giuseppe; Padulano, Roberta


    An integrated Visual Basic Application interface is described that allows for sensitivity analysis, calibration and routing of hydraulichydrological models. The routine consists in the combination of three freeware tools performing hydrological modelling, hydraulic modelling and calibration. With such an approach, calibration is made possible even if information about sewers geometrical features is incomplete. Model parameters involve storage coefficient, time of concentration, runoff coefficient, initial abstraction and Manning coefficient; literature formulas are considered and manipulated to obtain novel expressions and variation ranges. A sensitivity analysis with a local method is performed to obtain information about collinearity among parameters and a ranking of influence. The least important parameters are given a fixed value, and for the remaining ones calibration is performed by means of a genetic algorithm implemented in GANetXL. Single-event calibration is performed with a selection of six rainfall events, which are chosen so to avoid non-uniform rainfall distribution; results are then successfully validated with a sequence of four events.

  1. Rainfall-runoff relation: A physically based model to investigate interactions between rainfall duration, slope angle, soil depth and bedrock topography (United States)

    Lange, Benjamin; Bronstert, Axel


    Hillslopes are one of the fundamental geomorphic unit of catchments and act as the primary interface and filter between rainfall and runoff transmission to streams. Nevertheless, hillslope response to storm rainfall remains poorly understood. Typically, a certain rainfall volume is needed to exceed an intrinsic threshold before subsurface stormflow is released. Thresholds, however, vary locally. In particular, studies showed that the subsurface topography of an impeding layer may act as first order control on runoff mechanisms and herewith subsurface runoff generation. Thus, one of the key questions in hillslope hydrology is how slope angle, depth to bedrock or impeding layer and their topography impact the spatial and temporal evolution of subsurface storm flow. To this end, we conducted small scaled irrigation experiments (1 m2) covering intensities of 40, 50 and 60 mm/h over one hour duration in the Schäfertal catchment (51° 39´N, 11° 03´E) in the Lower Harz Mountains, Germany. During the experiments, we measured volumetric water contents at five depths (0.15, 0.30, 0.45, 0,60, 0,75 m) at intervals of 60 s. These measurements were used to develop a physically-based model to investigate subsurface flow. Here, this model was applied on an artificial hillslope segment (10 x 5 m) with varying slopes and depth to the local impermeable layers. In addition, rainfall duration changed with each simulation. Finally, the impact of the spatial position of a topographical depression in the impermeable layer was analyzed. Assuming vertical water flow to the impeding layer followed by subsequent lateral flow along this boundary, the recorded water content increase owing to irrigation was modelled based on a coupled approach combining both Stokes flow with elements of kinematic wave theory. Bases on this model, gravity drives flow while viscosity counteracts. Since capillarity is neglected, this approach is applicable to a certain soil moisture range between Darc

  2. Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context (United States)

    Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn


    gradients, and thus a faster relaxation back towards local thermodynamic equilibrium. Thermodynamic optimality principles allow for a priory optimization of the resistance field at a given gradient, not in the sense how they exactly look like but in the sense how they function with respect to export and dissipation of free energy associated with rainfall runoff processes. Based on this framework we explored the possibility of independent predictions of rainfall runoff, in the sense that the a-priory optimum model structures should match independent observations. We found that spatially organized patterns of soils and macropores observed in two distinctly different landscapes are in close accordance with thermodynamic optima expressed either by minimized relaxation times towards local thermodynamic equilibrium in cohesive soils or as steady state in the potential energy of soil water in non-cohesive soils. Predicted rainfall runoff based on the two optimized model structures was in both catchments in acceptable accordance with independent discharge observations. However, the nature of these optima suggests there might be two distinctly different thermodynamically optimal regimes of rainfall runoff behaviour. In the capillary- or c--regime, free energy dynamics of soil water is dominated by changes in its capillary binding energy, which is the case for cohesive soils. Soil wetting during rainfall in the c-regime implies pushing the system back towards LTE, especially after long dry spells. Dead ended macropores (roots, worm burrows which end in the soil matrix) act as dissipative wetting structures by enlarging water flows against steep gradients in soil water potential after long dry spells. This implies accelerated depletion of these gradients and faster relaxation back towards LTE during rainfall runoff. In the c-regime several optimum macropore densities with respect to maximization of net reduction of free energy exist. This is because the governing equation is a second

  3. Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhijia


    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin'anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

  4. Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-jia LI


    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihe Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected for the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

  5. Computational Intelligence in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.


    The transformation from precipitation over a river basin to river streamflow is the result of many interacting processes which manifest themselves at various scales of time and space. The resulting complexity of hydrological systems, and the difficulty to properly and quantitatively express the

  6. Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Lake County, Illinois (United States)

    Duncker, J.J.; Vail, T.J.; Melching, C.S.


    Rainfall and streamflow data collected in Lake County, Ill., from March 1990 through September 1993 were used to (1) calibrate a rainfall-runoff model for an area encompassing three watersheds (individual areas of 17.2, 35.7, and 37.0 mi(2) (square miles) and (2) verify the regional model parameter set obtained from the calibration by applying the parameter set to rainfall-runoff models for an additional small (6.3 mi(2)) watershed and a large (59.6 mi (2)) watershed. In addition, rainfall and streamflow data collected from April 1991 through September 1993 were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model for three single land-use watersheds (38.2-305 acres), called hydrologic response units (HRU's). Significant differences were found between the best parameters used in the HRU models and in the larger watershed models. The main channels in the HRU's are intermittent streams; thus, the parameters in the HRU models were selected such that a fluctuating water table could be simulated; runoff from the larger watersheds is not as sensitive to the effects of a fluctuating water table. Classification of land cover into two pervious subareas (forest and grass) and one impervious subarea (including parking lots, streets, and rooftops, among others) was sufficient to simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for all watersheds accurately. The model parameters presented in this report, which were refined through regional calibration and verified for watersheds not considered in the calibration, allow simulation of runoff in watersheds in Lake County, Ill., with approximately 93-percent accuracy in the total water balance, an average absolute error in the annual- flow estimates of 10.9 percent (and an error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flow), and monthly water balances with correlation coefficients of 93 percent and coefficients of model-fit efficiency of 86 percent. The models closely reproduced the partial-duration series of runoff and storm-runoff frequencies for

  7. The Effects Of Urban Landscape Patterns On Rainfall-Runoff Processes At Small Scale (United States)

    Chen, L.


    Many studies have indicated that urban landscape change may alter rainfall-runoff processes. However, how urban landscape pattern affect this process is little addressed. In this study, the hydrological effects of landscape pattern on rainfall-runoff processes at small-scale was explored. Twelve residential blocks with independent drainage systems in Beijing were selected as case study areas. Impervious metrics of these blocks, i.e., total impervious area (TIA) and directly connected impervious area (DCIA), were identified. A drainage index describing catchment general drainage load and the overland flow distance, Ad, was estimated and used as one of the landscape spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed to test the potential influence of impervious surface pattern on runoff processes. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated under different rainfall conditions by Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between landscape patterns and runoff variables were analyzed, and further among the three scenarios. The results demonstrated that, in small urban blocks, spatial patterns have inherent influences on rainfall-runoff processes. Specifically, (1) Imperviousness acts as effective indicators in predicting both Qt and Qp. As rainfall intensity increases, the major affecting factor changes from DCIA to TIA for both Qt and Qp; (2) Increasing the size of drainage area dominated by each drainage inlet will benefit the block peak flow mitigation; (3) Different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp, when impervious surfaces located away from the outlet can reduce the peak flow discharge. These findings may provide insights into the role of urban landscape patterns in driving rainfall-runoff responses in urbanization, which is essential for urban planning and stormwater management.

  8. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri (United States)

    Anomaa Senaviratne, G. M. M. M.; Udawatta, Ranjith P.; Anderson, Stephen H.; Baffaut, Claire; Thompson, Allen


    Fuzzy rainfall-runoff models are often used to forecast flood or water supply in large catchments and applications at small/field scale agricultural watersheds are limited. The study objectives were to develop, calibrate, and validate a fuzzy rainfall-runoff model using long-term data of three adjacent field scale row crop watersheds (1.65-4.44 ha) with intermittent discharge in the claypan soils of Northeast Missouri. The watersheds were monitored for a six-year calibration period starting 1991 (pre-buffer period). Thereafter, two of them were treated with upland contour grass and agroforestry (tree + grass) buffers (4.5 m wide, 36.5 m apart) to study water quality benefits. The fuzzy system was based on Mamdani method using MATLAB 7.10.0. The model predicted event-based runoff with model performance coefficients of r2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC) values greater than 0.65 for calibration and validation. The pre-buffer fuzzy system predicted event-based runoff for 30-50 times larger corn/soybean watersheds with r2 values of 0.82 and 0.68 and NSC values of 0.77 and 0.53, respectively. The runoff predicted by the fuzzy system closely agreed with values predicted by physically-based Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model (APEX) for the pre-buffer watersheds. The fuzzy rainfall-runoff model has the potential for runoff predictions at field-scale watersheds with minimum input. It also could up-scale the predictions for large-scale watersheds to evaluate the benefits of conservation practices.

  9. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment. (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J


    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  10. a High-Performance Method for Simulating Surface Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Using Particle System (United States)

    Zhang, Fangli; Zhou, Qiming; Li, Qingquan; Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Jun


    The simulation of rainfall-runoff process is essential for disaster emergency and sustainable development. One common disadvantage of the existing conceptual hydrological models is that they are highly dependent upon specific spatial-temporal contexts. Meanwhile, due to the inter-dependence of adjacent flow paths, it is still difficult for the RS or GIS supported distributed hydrological models to achieve high-performance application in real world applications. As an attempt to improve the performance efficiencies of those models, this study presents a high-performance rainfall-runoff simulating framework based on the flow path network and a separate particle system. The vector-based flow path lines are topologically linked to constrain the movements of independent rain drop particles. A separate particle system, representing surface runoff, is involved to model the precipitation process and simulate surface flow dynamics. The trajectory of each particle is constrained by the flow path network and can be tracked by concurrent processors in a parallel cluster system. The result of speedup experiment shows that the proposed framework can significantly improve the simulating performance just by adding independent processors. By separating the catchment elements and the accumulated water, this study provides an extensible solution for improving the existing distributed hydrological models. Further, a parallel modeling and simulating platform needs to be developed and validate to be applied in monitoring real world hydrologic processes.

  11. Analysis of one dimension migration law from rainfall runoff on urban roof (United States)

    Weiwei, Chen


    Research was taken on the hydrology and water quality process in the natural rain condition and water samples were collected and analyzed. The pollutant were included SS, COD and TN. Based on the mass balance principle, one dimension migration model was built for the rainfall runoff pollution in surface. The difference equation was developed according to the finite difference method, by applying the Newton iteration method for solving it. The simulated pollutant concentration process was in consistent with the measured value on model, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher than 0.80. The model had better practicability, which provided evidence for effectively utilizing urban rainfall resource, non-point source pollution of making management technologies and measures, sponge city construction, and so on.

  12. Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation (United States)

    Paquet, Emmanuel


    The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

  13. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann


    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  14. Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events. (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng


    Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain? (United States)

    Fraedrich, Klaus


    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

  16. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds – the two-CN system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Valiantzas


    Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions can be selected from tables, but it is preferable to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data if available. However, previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. Hence, they suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of soils and land cover spatial variability on its hydrologic response is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behaviour of the CN-rainfall function produced by the simplified two-CN system is approached theoretically, it is analysed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous methods based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one, a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  17. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area]. (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke


    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  18. Using natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea fertilization of a paddy rice field. (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Ling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Song-Min; Li, Jian-Sheng


    The potential of natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea applications to a paddy rice field is assessed in this study. Laboratory batch kinetic and isotherm experiments were carried out first to investigate the ammonium adsorption capacity of the natural zeolite. Field experiments using zeolite adsorption barriers installed at drain outlets in a paddy rice field were also carried out during natural rainfall events to evaluate the barrier's dynamic removal capacity of ammonium. The results demonstrate that the adsorption kinetics are accurately described by the Elovich model, with a coefficient of determination (R (2)) ranging from 0.9705 to 0.9709, whereas the adsorption isotherm results indicate that the Langmuir-Freundlich model provides the best fit (R (2) = 0.992) for the equilibrium data. The field experiments show that both the flow rate and the barrier volume are important controls on ammonium removal from rainfall runoff. A low flow rate leads to a higher ammonium removal efficiency at the beginning of the tests, while a high flow rate leads to a higher quantity of ammonium adsorbed over the entire runoff process.

  19. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 4, No 2 (2007) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  20. Application of Ihacres Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model to Simulate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 5, No 2 (2008) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  1. Space-time-frequency analysis of rainfall, runoff and temperature in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Jul 3, 2002 ... The tidal wave intrudes into the bed of the Casamance River and its tributaries up to a distance of 200 km. Freshwater enters the Casamance River estuary by canal discharge, storm drains, direct land runoff, and subsurface flow. TABLE 1. Rainfall-runoff measuring stations. Time interval Rain-gauging ...

  2. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fenicia


    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on

  3. Stochastic rainfall-runoff equations for quantifying runoff and pollutant connectivity between hillslopes and streams. (United States)

    Sheridan, G. J.; Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N. J.


    A single-event steady-state rainfall-runoff model (including runoff-runon phenomena) is derived, that for the first time quantifies the effect of the random spatial arrangement of rainfall and soil properties on i) infiltration-excess runoff delivery at a downslope boundary, and ii) the distribution of the "connected length" (the upslope length with a continuous runoff pathway adjacent to the stream boundary). The analytic stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) model assumes a planar hillslope geometry of independent strips and utilises established asymptotic mathematical representations available from the stochastic theory of queues. The accumulation and loss of runoff down a slope is represented as a first-in first-out (FIFO) GI/G/1 queuing system. Runoff flow (time rate of volume) at a downslope boundary is analogous to the waiting time in the queue in this representation. Probability distribution functions and/or the moments for the asymptotic distribution of runoff flow at a downslope boundary are derived for the case of normally distributed rainfall and log-normally distributed infiltration capacity, and for some other common distributions. The distribution of connected length was able to be represented analytically using a FIFO M/M/1 queuing system, and distribution functions are also derived for this property. Together these distributions characterise the degree of connectivity of the overland flow pathway (and by extension its associated pollutant load) for a given set of rainfall and soil conditions. The model is restricted to conditions where the mean infiltration capacity is greater than the mean rainfall rate, conditions which are often encountered, particularly in temperate forests.

  4. Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin: A search for chaos (United States)

    Sivakumar, B.; Berndtsson, R.; Olsson, J.; Jinno, K.; Kawamura, A.

    Sivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions.

  5. Explaining shifts in rainfall-runoff partitioning during decade-long drought in Australia (United States)

    Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray; Western, Andrew; Zhang, Lu


    Significant shifts in annual rainfall-runoff partitioning were observed during a severe decade-long drought in Australia. During the drought, less runoff was generated for a given rainfall in comparison to other dry years. However, shifts in the rainfall-runoff behaviour were very prominent in some catchments, but not in others. We attempt to explain this variability in catchment drought response using a multimodel inference approach. We systematically analyse the relative role of 37 potentially influential factors, including both catchment and drought characteristics. We found that historically drier catchments, catchments with higher interannual variability of groundwater storage, less seasonal rainfall regime, and deeper soils had larger runoff deficits for a given rainfall during the decadal drought in comparison with shorter droughts. Interestingly, these most informative factors can, in theory, be known before the drought starts, which provides an opportunity to anticipate how rainfall-runoff partitioning might change in case of prolonged drought in any given catchment. In other words, our results can provide a measure of catchment susceptibility to shifts in hydrologic behaviour during prolonged drought. The associated physical explanations and mechanisms of change are discussed. We conclude that during extended climate drying, runoff deficits depend on whether catchment functioning changes, and this in turn is defined by the catchment biophysical structure.

  6. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Apr 17, 2012 ... The in-field rainwater harvesting technique described in. Fig. 1 will result in increased crop yields on the Mieso. Hypo Calcic Vertisol ecotope in Ethiopia. • The MC model will satisfactorily predict runoff on the ecotope. • It will be possible to make reasonable estimates of yield increases on the ecotope using ...

  7. Report on Integration of Existing Grid Models for N-R HES Interaction Focused on Balancing Authorities for Sub-hour Penalties and Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McJunkin, Timothy [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Epiney, Aaron [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)


    This report provides a summary of the effort in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project on the level 4 milestone to consider integration of existing grid models into the factors for optimization on shorter time intervals than the existing electric grid models with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Modelica [1] optimizations and economic analysis that are the focus of the project to date.

  8. Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy) (United States)

    Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio


    We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For

  9. Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Following Wildfire in Mountainous Headwater Catchments, Alberta, Canada. (United States)

    Williams, C.; Silins, U.; Bladon, K. D.; Martens, A. M.; Wagner, M. J.; Anderson, A.


    Severe wildfire has been shown to increase the magnitude and advance the timing of rainfall-generated stormflows across a range of hydro-climate regions. Loss of canopy and forest floor interception results in increased net precipitation which, along with the removal of forest organic layers and increased shorter-term water repellency, can result in strongly increased surface flow pathways and efficient routing of precipitation to streams. These abrupt changes have the potential to exacerbate flood impacts and alter the timing of runoff delivery to streams. However, while these effects are well documented in drier temperate mountain regions, changes in post-fire rainfall-runoff processes are less well understood in colder, more northern, snowfall dominated regimes. The objectives of this study are to explore longer term precipitation and runoff dynamics of burned and unburned (reference) watersheds from the Southern Rockies Watershed Project (SRWP) after the 2003 Lost Creek wildfire in the front-range Rocky Mountains of southwestern Alberta, Canada. Streamflow and precipitation were measured in 5 watersheds (3.7 - 10.4 km2) for 10 years following the wildfire (2005-2014). Measurements were collected from a dense network of meteorological and hydrometric stations. Stormflow volume, peak flow, time to peak flow, and total annual streamflow were compared between burned and reference streams. Event-based data were separated into 3 post-fire periods to detect changes in rainfall-runoff dynamics as vegetation regenerated. Despite large increases in post-fire snowpacks and net summer rainfall, rainfall-generated runoff from fire-affected watersheds was not large in comparison to that reported from more temperate snowfall-dominated Rocky Mountain hydrologic settings. High proportions of groundwater contribution to annual runoff regimes (as opposed to surface flow pathways) and groundwater storage were likely contributors to greater watershed resistance to wildfire effects

  10. [Experimental study on rainfall-runoff pollutant reduction by urban green space]. (United States)

    Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Lü, Yong-Peng; Li, Bo; Lü, Shu-Hua


    Based on the state that non-pointed pollution caused by urban rainfall-runoff was one of the major factors which led to urban surface water contaminated and ecology deteriorated, a soil aquifer treatment system was built to experimentally study the pollution reduction effectiveness of green space, and the impacts of land cover, influent concentration, soil depth, hydraulic loading rate and residence time were analyzed. The results exhibit that green space has a better and stabilized ability to reduce three representative urban rainfall-runoff pollution concentrations, which COD are 44.5, 144.3, 487.2 mg x L(-1), NH4(+) -N are 4.27, 11.44, 36.61 mg x L(-1) and TP are 0.98, 2.85, 9.66 mg x L(-1), respectively, and with 8.15, 7.13 and 6.12 cm x h(-1) hydraulic loading rate, respectively. The pollution reduction rates of COD, NH4(+) -N and TP by green space are 33.41%-37.14%, 58.74%-61.49% and 63.65%-67.08%, respectively. The effect of land cover to pollution reduction rate is not significant because of the limitation of oxygen and hydraulic residence time. When pollution concentration increases, the comprehensive pollution reduction ability of green space is kept in 50%-60%, with a little increased tendency. Pollution reduction process happens mainly in the upper layer of the green space soil with a depth of 50-70 cm.

  11. A systematic assessment of watershed-scale nonpoint source pollution during rainfall-runoff events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed. (United States)

    Qiu, Jiali; Shen, Zhenyao; Wei, Guoyuan; Wang, Guobo; Xie, Hui; Lv, Guanping


    The assessment of peak flow rate, total runoff volume, and pollutant loads during rainfall process are very important for the watershed management and the ecological restoration of aquatic environment. Real-time measurements of rainfall-runoff and pollutant loads are always the most reliable approach but are difficult to carry out at all desired location in the watersheds considering the large consumption of material and financial resources. An integrated environmental modeling approach for the estimation of flash streamflow that combines the various hydrological and quality processes during rainstorms within the agricultural watersheds is essential to develop targeted management strategies for the endangered drinking water. This study applied the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the spatial and temporal variation in hydrological processes and pollutant transport processes during rainstorm events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, a drinking water resource area in Beijing. The model performance indicators ensured the acceptable applicability of the HSPF model to simulate flow and pollutant loads in the studied watershed and to establish a relationship between land use and the parameter values. The proportion of soil and land use was then identified as the influencing factors of the pollution intensities. The results indicated that the flush concentrations were much higher than those observed during normal flow periods and considerably exceeded the limits of Class III Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) for the secondary protection zones of the drinking water resource in China. Agricultural land and leached cinnamon soils were identified as the key sources of sediment, nutrients, and fecal coliforms. Precipitation volume was identified as a driving factor that determined the amount of runoff and pollutant loads during rainfall processes. These results are useful to improve the streamflow predictions, provide

  12. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Xu


    Full Text Available China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI. The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban

  13. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China (United States)

    Xu, Zongxue; Zhao, Gang


    China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI). The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban storm water and the

  14. Impacts of water quality variation and rainfall runoff on Jinpen Reservoir, in Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zi-zhen Zhou


    Full Text Available The seasonal variation characteristics of the water quality of the Jinpen Reservoir and the impacts of rainfall runoff on the reservoir were investigated. Water quality monitoring results indicated that, during the stable stratification period, the maximum concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, iron ion, and manganese ion in the water at the reservoir bottom on September 6 reached 2.5 mg/L, 0.12 mg/L, 0.58 mg/L, 3.2 mg/L, 0.97 mg/L, and 0.32 mg/L, respectively. Only heavy storm runoff can affect the main reservoir and cause the water quality to seriously deteriorate. During heavy storms, the stratification of the reservoir was destroyed, and the reservoir water quality consequently deteriorated due to the high-turbidity particulate phosphorus and organic matter in runoff. The turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus and total organic carbon in the main reservoir increased to 265 NTU, 0.224 mg/L, and 3.9 mg/L, respectively. Potential methods of dealing with the water problems in the Jinpen Reservoir are proposed. Both in stratification and in storm periods, the use of measures such as adjusting intake height, storing clean water, and releasing turbid flow can be helpful to safeguarding the quality of water supplied to the water treatment plants.

  15. Predicting shifts in rainfall-runoff partitioning during multiyear drought: Roles of dry period and catchment characteristics (United States)

    Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu


    While the majority of hydrological prediction methods assume that observed interannual variability explores the full range of catchment response dynamics, recent cases of prolonged climate drying suggest otherwise. During the ˜decade-long Millennium drought in south-eastern Australia significant shifts in hydrologic behavior were reported. Catchment rainfall-runoff partitioning changed from what was previously encountered during shorter droughts, with significantly less runoff than expected occurring in many catchments. In this article, we investigate the variability in the magnitude of shift in rainfall-runoff partitioning observed during the Millennium drought. We re-evaluate a large range of factors suggested to be responsible for the additional runoff reductions. Our results suggest that the shifts were mostly influenced by catchment characteristics related to predrought climate (aridity index and rainfall seasonality) and soil and groundwater storage dynamics (predrought interannual variability of groundwater storage and mean solum thickness). The shifts were amplified by seasonal rainfall changes during the drought (spring rainfall deficits). We discuss the physical mechanisms that are likely to be associated with these factors. Our results confirm that shifts in the annual rainfall-runoff relationship represent changes in internal catchment functioning, and emphasize the importance of cumulative multiyear changes in the catchment storage for runoff generation. Prolonged drying in some regions can be expected in the future, and our results provide an indication of which catchments characteristics are associated with catchments more susceptible to a shift in their runoff response behavior.

  16. Transport of three veterinary antimicrobials from feedlot pens via simulated rainfall runoff. (United States)

    Sura, Srinivas; Degenhardt, Dani; Cessna, Allan J; Larney, Francis J; Olson, Andrew F; McAllister, Tim A


    Veterinary antimicrobials are introduced to wider environments by manure application to agricultural fields or through leaching or runoff from manure storage areas (feedlots, stockpiles, windrows, lagoons). Detected in manure, manure-treated soils, and surface and ground water near intensive cattle feeding operations, there is a concern that environmental contamination by these chemicals may promote the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Surface runoff and leaching appear to be major transport pathways by which veterinary antimicrobials eventually contaminate surface and ground water, respectively. A study was conducted to investigate the transport of three veterinary antimicrobials (chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, tylosin), commonly used in beef cattle production, in simulated rainfall runoff from feedlot pens. Mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 3.5 times higher in surface material from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Runoff rates and volumetric runoff coefficients were similar across all treatments but both were significantly higher from non-bedding (0.53Lmin(-1); 0.27) than bedding areas (0.40Lmin(-1); 0.19). In keeping with concentrations in pen surface material, mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 2.5 times higher in runoff generated from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Water solubility and sorption coefficient of antimicrobials played a role in their transport in runoff. Estimated amounts of chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and tylosin that could potentially be transported to the feedlot catch basin during a one in 100-year precipitation event were 1.3 to 3.6ghead(-1), 1.9ghead(-1), and 0.2ghead(-1), respectively. This study demonstrates the magnitude of veterinary antimicrobial transport in feedlot pen runoff and supports the necessity of catch basins for runoff containment within feedlots. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.


    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  18. Spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall-runoff event and baseflow characteristics and their potential drivers in Germany (United States)

    Tarasova, Larisa; Poncelet, Carine; Zink, Matthias; Merz, Ralf


    Event and baseflow characteristics are an important source of information to reveal how much of rainfall transforms into runoff and how fast does it happen, and to shed a light on the temporal variability of the rainfall-runoff event characteristics. A new event separation method allows fast and continuous separation of rainfall-runoff events and provides a formal framework for judging their independence. We analyze more than 190,000 events for 378 German catchments, using event and baseflow characteristics for uncovering regional pattern of hydrologically similar catchments with Self-Organizing Maps. Event and baseflow characteristics reveal a clear spatial pattern in Germany and can be associated with reasonable climatic and landscape drivers. A large dataset of catchment descriptors representing climate, geology, hydrogeology, groundwater and aquifer properties, geomorphology, topography, soil types and properties, soil water properties, land use, characteristics of dry and wet spells were used for iterative selection of catchment descriptors based on the measure of cluster similarity, which avoids subjectivity of their choice. Principal Component Analysis has shown that climatic drivers and soil properties are principal descriptors for majority of clusters. Geological and hydrogeological properties contribute mostly to the variability of baseflow characteristics, while wet and dry spells properties are important for resembling spatial pattern of event characteristics.

  19. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    commercial arteries. These coastal regions of tropics in which Calabar Metropolis is one of s have the highest average rainfall. However, due to flat terrain and often alluvial soils, drainage is diffic. Large areas of impermeable surfaces and spa vegetation in the urban centres, coupled w inadequate drainage facilities, results ...

  20. Influence of Schematization Detailness on the Results of Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in the Lubina River Basin / Vliv Podrobnosti Schematizace na Výsledky Srážkoodtokového Modelování v Povodí Lubiny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamec Martin


    Full Text Available Příspěvek zkoumá formou případové studie vliv podrobnosti schematizace povodí na výsledek srážkoodtokového modelování. V zájmovém území byly vytvořeny tři schematizace s rozdílnou podrobností a následně byla provedena pomocí programu HEC-HMS simulace srážkoodtokového procesu pro přívalovou srážkovou epizodu. Výsledné hydrogramy jsou dále srovnávány s reálným průtokem měřeným v závěrovém profilu modelového povodí. Jako modelové povodí bylo použito povodí Lubiny o velikosti cca 160 km2, které má výraznou výškovou členitost a variabilní využití země, takže srovnání nebylo omezeno na jeden typ krajiny. Také bylo provedeno statistické vyhodnocení přesnosti modelů pomocí metody Nash-Sutcliffe. Na závěr jsou výsledky diskutovány a vysvětleny pravděpodobné příčiny chování modelů

  1. Performance of Geno-Fuzzy Model on rainfall-runoff predictions in claypan watersheds (United States)

    Fuzzy logic provides a relatively simple approach to simulate complex hydrological systems while accounting for the uncertainty of environmental variables. The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy inference system (FIS) with genetic algorithm (GA) optimization for membership functions (MF...

  2. Effects of land-cover change on rainfall-runoff relationships: a case study of the Yarkon-Ayalon watershed, Israel (United States)

    Ohana, Noa; Karnieli, Arnon; Egozi, Roey; Peeters, Aviva


    Temporal changes and spatial patterns are often studied by analyzing land-cover changes (LCCs) using spaceborne images. LCC is an important factor, affecting runoff regime within watersheds through processes such as urbanization, agricultural activities, quarries and afforestation. The objective of this research was to estimate the effects of 20 years of LCCs on rainfall-runoff relations in an extreme rainfall event, in a sub-basin scale. A Landsat TM-derived classification map was used as an input for the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) hydrological model along with precipitation data of an extreme rainfall event. Model calibration was performed by using total runoff volume data based on hydrometric measurements taken during this rainfall event. Validation of the model performance was conducted by comparing the model results to measured data in order to receive output accuracy estimation. A similar procedure was then used with a 2009 land-cover classification map, derived from a Landsat TM image, as an input to KINEROS2 model, along with the same precipitation data and calibration parameters, in order to understand the possible outcomes of a rainfall event of such magnitude and duration after 20 years of LCCs. The results show a slight increase in runoff volume and peak discharge values between the examined time periods as a result of LCCs. In addition, a strong relationship was spotted between vegetation cover along the six sub-basins and the runoff volume. The LCCs that had the most pronounced effects on runoff volumes were related to urbanization and vegetation removal.

  3. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.


    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

  4. Simulation of soil loss processes based on rainfall runoff and the time factor of governance in the Jialing River Watershed, China. (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Long, Tian-Yu; Liu, Xia; Mmereki, Daniel


    Jialing River is the largest tributary in the catchment area of Three Gorges Reservoir, and it is also one of the important areas of sediment yield in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In recent years, significant changes of water and sediment characteristics have taken place. The "Long Control" Project implemented since 1989 had greatly changed the surface appearance of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW), and it had made the environments of the watershed sediment yield and sediment transport change significantly. In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was selected and used to predict the annual average amount of soil erosion for the special water and sediment environments in the JRW after the implementation of the "Long Control" Project, and then the rainfall-runoff modulus and the time factor of governance were both considered as dynamic factors, the dynamic sediment transport model was built for soil erosion monitoring and forecasting based on the average sediment yield model. According to the dynamic model, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil erosion amount and sediment transport amount of the JRW from 1990 to 2007 was simulated using geographic information system (GIS) technology and space-grid algorithm. Simulation results showed that the average relative error of sediment transport was less than 10% except for the extreme hydrological year. The relationship between water and sediment from 1990 to 2007 showed that sediment interception effects of the soil and water conservation projects were obvious: the annual average sediment discharge reduced from 145.3 to 35 million tons, the decrement of sediment amount was about 111 million tons, and decreasing amplitude was 76%; the sediment concentration was also decreased from 2.01 to 0.578 kg/m(3). These data are of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of sediment storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the particulate non

  5. Comparison between snowmelt-runoff and rainfall-runoff nonpoint source pollution in a typical urban catchment in Beijing, China. (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhi, Xiaosha; Shen, Zhenyao; Dai, Ying; Aini, Guzhanuer


    As a climate-driven event, nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is caused by rainfall- or snowmelt-runoff processes; however, few studies have compared the characteristics and mechanisms of these two kinds of NPS processes. In this study, three factors relating to urban NPS, including surface dust, snowmelt, and rainfall-runoff processes, were analyzed comprehensively by both field sampling and laboratory experiments. The seasonal variation and leaching characteristics of pollutants in surface dust were explored, and the runoff quality of snowmelt NPS and rainfall NPS were compared. The results indicated that dusts are the main sources of urban NPS and more pollutants are deposited in dust samples during winter and spring. However, pollutants in surface dust showed a low leaching ratio, which indicated most NPS pollutants would be carried as particulate forms. Compared to surface layer, underlying snow contained higher chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids (TSS), Cu, Fe, Mn, and Pb concentrations, while the event mean concentration of most pollutants in snowmelt tended to be higher in roads. Moreover, the TSS and heavy metal content of snowmelt NPS was always higher than those of rainfall NPS, which indicated the importance of controlling snowmelt pollution for effective water quality management.

  6. Virtual lab for learning equipment and treatment of experimental measurements of rainfall, runoff and erosion in small rural catchments (United States)

    Ángel Bajo, José; Redel-Macías, María Dolores; Nichols, Mary; Pérez, Rafael; Bellido, Francisco; Marín-Moreno, Víctor; Taguas, Encarnación V.


    A virtual lab for learning to use devices and to treat experimental measurements of hydrological and erosive processes in small agricultural catchments was created to support the practical content of the subject Restoration of Forest Ecosystems of the Master of Forest Engineer (University of Cordoba). The objective was to build a virtual place representing a real site equipped to make measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment concentration. The virtual lab included pictures, videos and explanations that facilitate learning. Moreover, some practical cases were proposed to apply the explained terms. The structure of menu consisted of: Experimental measurements in catchments; Gallery of videos; Equipment; Practical case; Glossary and Additional Information. Their contents were carefully carried out by professors and scientists of Hydrology and Electronics. The main advantages of the virtual lab were its compatibility with on-line platforms such as Moodle and the presentation of examples for the direct analysis as a basis for solving the proposed practical cases. It has been successfully used for two years and was well-values by the students due the opportunities offered by self-access learning tools. In addition, constraints associated with field trips such as logistical complexity and economic aspects are removed.

  7. Investigating source water Cryptosporidium concentration, species and infectivity rates during rainfall-runoff in a multi-use catchment. (United States)

    Swaffer, Brooke A; Vial, Hayley M; King, Brendon J; Daly, Robert; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Monis, Paul T


    Protozoan pathogens present a significant human health concern, and prevention of contamination into potable networks remains a key focus for drinking water providers. Here, we monitored the change in Cryptosporidium concentration in source water during high flow events in a multi-use catchment. Furthermore, we investigated the diversity of Cryptosporidium species/genotypes present in the source water, and delivered an oocyst infectivity fraction. There was a positive and significant correlation between Cryptosporidium concentration and flow (ρ = 0.756) and turbidity (ρ = 0.631) for all rainfall-runoff events, despite variable source water pathogen concentrations. Cell culture assays measured oocyst infectivity and suggested an overall source water infectious fraction of 3.1%. No infectious Cryptosporidium parvum or Cryptosporidium hominis were detected, although molecular testing detected C. parvum in 7% of the samples analysed using PCR-based molecular techniques. Twelve Cryptosporidium species/genotypes were identified using molecular techniques, and were reflective of the host animals typically found in remnant vegetation and agricultural areas. The inclusion of molecular approaches to identify Cryptosporidium species and genotypes highlighted the diversity of pathogens in water, which originated from various sources across the catchment. We suggest this mixing of runoff water from a range of landuses containing diverse Cryptosporidium hosts is a key explanation for the often-cited difficulty forming strong pathogen-indicator relationships. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri (United States)

    Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

  9. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik


    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date...

  10. Responses of hydrochemical inorganic ions in the rainfall-runoff processes of the experimental catchments and its significance for tracing (United States)

    Gu, W.-Z.; Lu, J.-J.; Zhao, X.; Peters, N.E.


    Aimed at the rainfall-runoff tracing using inorganic ions, the experimental study is conducted in the Chuzhou Hydrology Laboratory with special designed experimental catchments, lysimeters, etc. The various runoff components including the surface runoff, interflow from the unsaturated zone and the groundwater flow from saturated zone were monitored hydrometrically. Hydrochemical inorganic ions including Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO42-, HCO3- + CO32-, NO3-, F-, NH4-, PO42-, SiO2 and, pH, EC, 18O were measured within a one month period for all processes of rainfall, various runoff components and groundwater within the catchment from 17 boreholes distributed in the Hydrohill Catchment, few soil water samples were also included. The results show that: (a) all the runoff components are distinctly identifiable from both the relationships of Ca2+ versus Cl-/SO42-, EC versus Na+/(Na+ + Ca2+) and, from most inorganic ions individually; (b) the variation of inorganic ions in surface runoff is the biggest than that in other flow components; (c) most ions has its lowermost concentration in rainfall process but it increases as the generation depths of runoff components increased; (d) quantitatively, ion processes of rainfall and groundwater flow display as two end members of that of other runoff components; and (e) the 18O processes of rainfall and runoff components show some correlation with that of inorganic ions. The results also show that the rainfall input is not always the main source of inorganic ions of various runoff outputs due to the process of infiltration and dissolution resulted from the pre-event processes. The amount and sources of Cl- of runoff components with various generation mechanisms challenge the current method of groundwater recharge estimation using Cl-.

  11. Evaluation of QPE for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Urban Area (United States)

    Choi, Sumin; Son, Along; Yoon, Seong-sim; Lee, Byungjoo; Choi, Youngjean


    The occurrence of local torrential rainfall has been increased. The local torrential rainfall resulted huge casualties and property damage from 2010 to 2012 in Seoul, Korea. Especially, the southern areas (Gangnam area) of Seoul incurred huge damages due to flash floods that occurred on September 21, 2010 and July 27, 2011. In this study, runoff analysis was performed focus on a significant area around Gangnam Station. For these, five drainage basins near Gangnam Station including one each in Nonhyun, Yeoksam and Seocho 3, 4, 5 were selected as target areas. The areas of these basins are 1.8 km2, 1.9 km2, 1.8 km2, 1.1 km2 and 0.8 km2, respectively. The drainage system of these basins consists of 4,170 manholes and total 200,698 km-length of pipelines. To obtain input data for runoff analysis, the Seoul drainage network map was used. In total, 773 manholes, 1,059 pipes, and 772 sub-catchments were used for the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) as input data. The average area of sub-catchments was 0.01 km2. The average slope, calculated by using 5-m resolution DEM (Digital Elevation Model), was 1.801%. Also, CN (Curve Numbers) and impervious ratio were determined by using the Seoul Biotope Map, and the distribution were 47~95 and 10.6~100%, respectively. This analysis was performed for six rainfall events that occurred on July 2, 4, 12~14, 15, 22, and 23, 2013. There are two AWS (Automatic Weather Station) around this area, however, QPE rain fields were used to consider spatial distribution of local rainfall. Rainfall input data was constructed by MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation) for each sub-catchments estimated by using four types of QPE rain fields. The four QPEs were determined by 190 AWS data and radar data in Seoul, and the QPEs have 10min/250m resolution. To calibrate and evaluate the analysis, water depth data in manhole were collected for July 2013. There are six water depth gauge in the study area, three of them were used for the calibration and evaluation

  12. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMCs) from rainfall runoff on mixed agricultural land use in the shoreline zone of the Yamuna River in Delhi, India (United States)

    Sharma, Deepshikha; Gupta, Ruchi; Singh, Ram Karan; Kansal, Arun


    This paper is focused on the monitoring of the diffuse pollution characteristics from the agricultural land confining the River Yamuna in Delhi (capital of India). Agricultural fields surrounding the Yamuna river are direct nonpoint source of pollution impacting the river quality. The study includes watershed delineation for the River Yamuna using SWAT (2005) and land use classification for the city using GIS and remote sensing. Thereafter, the rainfall-runoff pollutant concentrations from the mixed agricultural land use were assessed for the 2006 and 2007 monsoon period (July-September). Runoff was measured using SCS method and grab samples of rainfall runoff were collected at three stations namely Old Delhi Railway Bridge (ODRB), Nizamuddin and Okhla bridge in Delhi. The samples were analysed for physico-chemical and biological parameters. Rainfall runoff and event mean concentrations (EMCs) for different water quality parameters were characterized and the effect of land use was analyzed. The average EMCs for BOD, COD, ammonia, nitrate, TKN, hardness, TDS, TSS, chlorides, sulfates, phosphate, fluorides and TC were 21.82 mg/L, 73.48 mg/L, 72.68 μg/L, 229.87 μg/L, 15.32 μg/L, 11.36 mg/L, 117.44 mg/L, 77.60 mg/L, 117.64 mg/L, 135.82 mg/L, 0.08 mg/L, 0.85 mg/L and 2,827.47 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The EMCs of TSS, nitrogen and its compounds, phosphate and BOD were high.

  13. Estimation of Sub Hourly Glacier Albedo Values Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques (United States)

    Moya Quiroga, Vladimir; Mano, Akira; Asaoka, Yoshihiro; Udo, Keiko; Kure, Shuichi; Mendoza, Javier


    Glaciers are the most important fresh water reservoirs storing about 67% of total fresh water. Unfortunately, they are retreating and some small glaciers have already disappeared. Thus, snow glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Whether SGM is estimated by complete energy balance or a simplified method, albedo is an important data present in most of the methods. However, this is a variable value depending on the ground surface and local conditions. The present research presents a new approach for estimating sub hourly albedo values using different artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks and decision trees along with measured and easy to obtain data. . The models were developed using measured data from the Zongo-Ore station located in the Bolivian tropical glacier Zongo (68°10' W, 16°15' S). This station automatically records every 30 minutes several meteorological parameters such as incoming short wave radiation, outgoing short wave radiation, temperature or relative humidity. The ANN model used was the Multi Layer Perceptron, while the decision tree used was the M5 model. Both models were trained using the WEKA software and validated using the cross validation method. After analysing the model performances, it was concluded that the decision tree models have a better performance. The model with the best performance was then validated with measured data from the Equatorian tropical glacier Antizana (78°09'W, 0°28'S). The model predicts the sub hourly albedo with an overall mean absolute error of 0.103. The highest errors occur for albedo measured values higher than 0.9. Considering that this is an extreme value coincident with low measured values of incoming short wave radiation, it is reasonable to assume that such values include errors due to censored data. Assuming a maximum albedo of 0.9 improved the accuracy of the model reducing the MAE to less than 0.1. Considering that the

  14. Estimation of extreme floods of the River Meuse using a stochastic weather generator and a rainfall-runoff model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leander, R.; Buishand, A.; Aalders, P.; Wit, de M.


    A stochastic weather generator has been developed to simulate long daily sequences of areal rainfall and station temperature for the Belgian and French sub-basins of the River Meuse. The weather generator is based on the principle of nearest-neighbour resampling. In this method rainfall and

  15. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model (United States)

    The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

  16. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is statistical forecasting futile? (United States)

    Singh, Jitendra; Sekharan, Sheeba; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Zope, P. E.; Eldho, T. I.


    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006-2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013-2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

  17. Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Response in Ecological Swale with On-Line Subsurface Detention Using Infoworks SD. (United States)

    Ghadim, Hamed Benisi; Hin, Lai Sai


      The Bio-Ecological Drainage System (BIOECODS) is a sustainable drainage (SUDS) to demonstrate the 'control at source' approaches for urban stormwater management in Malaysia. It is an environmentally friendly drainage system that was designed to increase infiltration, reduce peak flow at outlet, improve water quality, through different BMPs, such as grass swale, retention pond, etc. A special feature of BIOECODS is ecological swale with on-line subsurface detention. This study attempted to create a model of ecological swale with on-line subsurface conveyance system with InfoWorks SD. The new technique has been used Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) model to describe overland flow routing and Soil Conservation Service Method (SCS) used to model infiltration or subsurface flow. The modeling technique has been proven successful, as the predicted and observed closely match each other, with a mean error of 4.58 to 7.32%. The calibrated model then used to determine the ratio of the flow exchange between the surface and subsurface drainage system. Results from the model showed that the runoff ratio exchange between the surface and subsurface is 60 to 90%.

  18. A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Green


    Full Text Available Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway. Particular

  19. Change of Rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments due to surface decontamination in the area affected by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident (United States)

    Onda, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Taniguchi, K.; Kubo, T.; Smith, H.; Brake, W.; Kuramoto, T.; Sato, T.


    The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) on March 2011 accident released massive amounts of radiocesium into the terrestrial environment such as Cs-137 and Cs-134. Where deposition density of Cs-137 exceeds loughly 500 kBq/m2, evacuation has been ordered, and the cropland and paddy field have become grassland in the summer of 2011.A large scale government funded research program has been started (Saito and Onda, 2015) to monitor the amount of radiocesium wash off from the catchments started June, 2011 (Yamashiki et al 2013) starting initial 6 sites in the Abukuma river watershed in the nested structure. Two stations were installed on the main river channel (Iwanuma; 5313 km2 and Fushiguro; 3645 km2), and the more highly-contaminated Kuchibuto sub-basin (Mizusakai; 7.5km2, Kuchibuto Upstream; 21.4 km2, Kuchibuto middle stream; 63 km2, Kuchibuto downstream; 135 km2) was selected for detailed monitoring. The sites are increased to 30 sites (Yoshimura et al., 2015) to cover the most of the area within 80 km from the FDNPP in 2013.Continuous measurements of flow and turbidity (for estimating suspended sediment concentration) were made at each monitoring station. Turbidity meters (Analyte turbidity meter, MacVan 3000-NTU) calibrated with bottom sediment of the Horai reservoir upstream the Abukuma river, and water level gauges (RuggedTROLL100) . During our monitoring of topsoil up to 5 cm and replaced with lower part of the soil taken nearby in the two upstream catchments (Kuchibuto upstream, Mizusakai ) mainly in 2014 to 2015.The change of rainfall-runoff event hysteresis in suspended sediments before and after the decontamination was significant. From 2011 to 2013. Most of the response of suspended sediment occurs before the rainfall peak. However, after 2014, the response occurs after the runoff events, and suspended sediment concentration has been increased especially in the stations where decontamination area ratio are high.

  20. Assessing the detail needed to capture rainfall-runoff dynamics with physics-based hydrologic response simulation (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Heppner, Christopher S.; Loague, Keith


    Concept development simulation with distributed, physics-based models provides a quantitative approach for investigating runoff generation processes across environmental conditions. Disparities within data sets employed to design and parameterize boundary value problems used in heuristic simulation inevitably introduce various levels of bias. The objective was to evaluate the impact of boundary value problem complexity on process representation for different runoff generation mechanisms. The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic response model InHM has been employed to generate base case simulations for four well-characterized catchments. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested environments dominated by subsurface stormflow; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland environments dominated by Dunne and Horton overland flows. Observational details are well captured within all four of the base case simulations, but the characterization of soil depth, permeability, rainfall intensity, and evapotranspiration differs for each. These differences are investigated through the conversion of each base case into a reduced case scenario, all sharing the same level of complexity. Evaluation of how individual boundary value problem characteristics impact simulated runoff generation processes is facilitated by quantitative analysis of integrated and distributed responses at high spatial and temporal resolution. Generally, the base case reduction causes moderate changes in discharge and runoff patterns, with the dominant process remaining unchanged. Moderate differences between the base and reduced cases highlight the importance of detailed field observations for parameterizing and evaluating physics-based models. Overall, similarities between the base and reduced cases indicate that the simpler boundary value problems may be useful for concept development simulation to investigate fundamental controls on the spectrum of runoff generation

  1. Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Crooks


    New hydrological insights: The generally close correspondence between observed and simulated flows using the same model parameter values for the whole period is indicative of the temporal stability of hydrological processes and catchment response, and the quality of the hydrometric data. Changes that have occurred are a decrease in flood peak response times, typically two to three days pre and post the early 1940s, from change in agricultural practices and channel conveyance, and an increase of about 15% in summer flow from increase in urban land cover between the first decade of the 20th and 21st centuries. The water balance was found to be sensitive to the PE data used, with care needed to avoid discontinuity between two parts of the data record using different methods for calculation. Long-term mean annual rainfall shows little change but contrasting patterns of variation in seasonal rainfall demonstrate a variable climate for which simulated flow is similar to observed flow.

  2. Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia (United States)

    Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.


    In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

  3. Scaling properties of rainfall-runoff generation processes and nutrient flushing mechanisms in the Oregon Cascade Mountain (United States)

    Segura, C.; Nickolas, L. B.; Leshchinsky, B. A.


    Even though it is widely recognized that water quality and availability are crucial to society and wildlife sustainability, we are still not able to predict how much water is moved through a given catchment after a storm event nor what nutrients, solutes, and contaminates are mobilized. We will present preliminary results of a study incorporating of hydrometric information, water stable isotopes (δ18O), and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), ammonia (NH3), and nitrate (NO3) within 4 sites in a nested framework at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), OR. Preliminary analysis of 2 storms (54mm and 145mm) indicate highly variable responses across space along with a positive relation between transit time of event water and storm magnitude in all catchments. In addition there appears to be a moisture threshold after which transit time scales with drainage area across the landscape likely related to higher degree of connectivity. We also found a strong correlation between transit times computed based on temporal variability of δ18O and electrical connectivity (EC). This lead to the analysis of over 50 storm across 10 catchments in the HJA during the last 3 years. In-stream NO3- during storm response are highest within the smaller catchments (1-5 km2) and tend to remain elevated throughout the response period. The larger catchments (15-64 km2) demonstrate smaller increases in NO3-, the response time lags behind that of the smaller catchments, and the concentration returns rapidly to baseflow conditions rather than remaining elevated. In contrast, in-stream NH3 show a higher degree of similarity between sites in terms of magnitude and timing of increases in concentration over the duration of the response period. Ultimately we found that fractions of inorganic nitrogen correlate with transit time and drainage area, opening the possibility of a catchment wide model of nutrient export prediction.

  4. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Observation Data (1-second sampling, sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Observation Data (1-second sampling, sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics...

  5. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) SBAS Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly...

  6. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) QZSS Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from...

  7. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Galileo Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Galileo Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics...

  8. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System Mixed Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Mixed Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics Data...

  9. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Beidou Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Beidou Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics...

  10. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) GLONASS Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS - Cloned (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS) Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly...

  11. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) GPS Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) GPS Broadcast Ephemeris Data (sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics Data...

  12. Evaluation of an artificial neural network rainfall disaggregation model. (United States)

    Burian, S J; Durran, S R


    Previous research produced an artificial neural network (ANN) temporal rainfall disaggregation model. After proper training the model can disaggregate hourly rainfall records into sub-hourly time increments. In this paper we present results from continued evaluations of the performance of the ANN model specifically examining how the errors in the disaggregated rainfall hyetograph translate to errors in the prediction of the runoff hydrograph. Using a rainfall-runoff model of a hypothetical watershed we compare the runoff hydrographs produced by the ANN-predicted 15-minute increment rainfall pattern to runoff hydrographs produced by (1) the observed 15-minute increment rainfall pattern, (2) the observed hourly-increment rainfall pattern, and (3) the 15-minute increment rainfall pattern produced by a disaggregation model based on geometric similarity. For 98 test storms the peak discharges produced by the ANN model rainfall pattern had a median under-prediction of 16.6%. This relative error was less than the median under-prediction in peak discharge when using the observed 15-minute rainfall patterns aggregated to hourly increments (40.8%), and when using rainfall patterns produced by the geometric similarity rainfall disaggregation model (21.9%).

  13. The CHRONOS mission: capability for sub-hourly synoptic observations of carbon monoxide and methane to quantify emissions and transport of air pollution (United States)

    Edwards, David P.; Worden, Helen M.; Neil, Doreen; Francis, Gene; Valle, Tim; Arellano, Avelino F., Jr.


    The CHRONOS space mission concept provides time-resolved abundance for emissions and transport studies of the highly variable and highly uncertain air pollutants carbon monoxide and methane, with sub-hourly revisit rate at fine (˜ 4 km) horizontal spatial resolution across a North American domain. CHRONOS can provide complete synoptic air pollution maps (snapshots) of the continental domain with less than 10 min of observations. This rapid mapping enables visualization of air pollution transport simultaneously across the entire continent and enables a sentinel-like capability for monitoring evolving, or unanticipated, air pollution sources in multiple locations at the same time with high temporal resolution. CHRONOS uses a compact imaging gas filter correlation radiometer for these observations, with heritage from more than 17 years of scientific data and algorithm advances by the science teams for the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft in low Earth orbit. To achieve continental-scale sub-hourly sampling, the CHRONOS mission would be conducted from geostationary orbit, with the instrument hosted on a communications or meteorological platform. CHRONOS observations would contribute to an integrated observing system for atmospheric composition using surface, suborbital and satellite data with atmospheric chemistry models, as defined by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites. Addressing the U.S. National Academy's 2007 decadal survey direction to characterize diurnal changes in tropospheric composition, CHRONOS observations would find direct societal applications for air quality management and forecasting to protect public health.

  14. The role of basin physical property data in assessing water stress in water resources studies: The application of the Pitman Rainfall-runoff model in Nigeria

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ayeni, AO


    Full Text Available and sub-surface geological conditions. FAO and available Nigeria soil maps provided a baseline of the requisite general soil information and other soil attributes information was inferred from literature. Owena, Asa and Ogun basins were used as case...

  15. Flood Frequency Analysis for the Annual Peak Flows Simulated by an Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Model in an Urban Drainage Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghwan Ahn


    Full Text Available The proper assessment of design flood is a major concern for many hydrological applications in small urban watersheds. A number of approaches can be used including statistical approach and the continuous simulation and design storm methods. However, each method has its own limitations and assumptions being applied to the real world. The design storm method has been widely used for a long time because of the simplicity of the method, but three critical assumptions are made such as the equality of the return periods between the rainfall and corresponding flood quantiles and the selections of the rainfall hyetograph and antecedent soil moisture conditions. Continuous simulation cannot be applied to small urban catchments with quick responses of runoff to rainfall. In this paper, a new flood frequency analysis for the simulated annual peak flows (FASAP is proposed. This method employs the candidate rainfall events selected by considering a time step order of five minutes and a sliding duration without any assumptions about the conventional design storm method in an urban watershed. In addition, the proposed methodology was verified by comparing the results with the conventional method in a real urban watershed.

  16. Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review (United States)

    Kinnell, P. I. A.


    SummaryThe Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is the most widely used and misused prediction equation in the world. Although it was designed to predict long-term average annual soil loss, it has the capacity to predict event soil losses reasonably well at some geographic locations and not well at others. Its lack of capacity to predict event erosion is highly influenced by the fact the event rainfall-runoff factor used in the USLE and its revisions (RUSLE, RUSLE2) does not consider runoff explicitly. While including direct consideration of runoff in the event rainfall-runoff factor improves the capacity to predict event erosion when runoff is measured, that capacity is reduced by inaccurate runoff prediction methods. Even so, the predictions may be better than when the traditional event rainfall-runoff factor is used if the rainfall-runoff model used to predict runoff works reasonably well. Direct consideration of runoff in the rainfall-runoff factor may improve the ability of the model to account for seasonal effects. It also enhances the ability of the model to account for the spatial variations in soil loss on hillslopes which result from spatial variations in soil and vegetation. However, the USLE model will not provide a capacity to account for deposition taking place on concave hillslopes unless it is coupled with an appropriate sediment transport model, as in done in RUSLE2. Changing the basis of the event rainfall-runoff factor has consequences on a number of the other factors used in the model, in particular new values of the soil erodibility factor need to be determined. Using runoff values from cropped areas is necessary to account for differences in infiltration capacities between vegetated and tilled bare fallow areas, but requires re-evaluation of the crop factors.

  17. Recent (2001-09) hydrologic history and regionalization studies in Texas-Statistical characterization of storms, floods, and rainfall-runoff relations (United States)

    Asquith, William H.


    As part of numerous cooperative studies investigating rainfall and streamflow during 1991-2009 with the Texas Department of Transportation and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published about 20 reports describing either historical streamflow conditions (hydrologic history) in Texas or the results of studies involving regional rainfall and streamflow statistics (regionalization studies). Both types of studies are widely used in engineering and scientific applications. Long-term rainfall and streamflow records are essential for deriving reliable rainfall and streamflow statistics. Whereas the need for such records is regionwide, rainfall and streamflow records are site-specific. The USGS has pioneered ways to mathematically transfer site-specific rainfall and streamflow information to provide regional statistical models. In addition to publishing reports describing historical hydrologic data at many monitored locations throughout Texas, the USGS has published reports describing regional models for estimating rainfall and streamflow statistics at unmonitored locations. The primary objectives of these regionalization studies were to provide historical perspectives of streamflow conditions in Texas or estimates of specific statistics of rainfall or streamflow. Statistics such as 6-hour, 1-percent annual exceedance rainfall (a large storm) or 2-percent annual exceedance streamflow (a substantial flood) can be estimated for locations lacking sufficient direct observations of rainfall and streamflow data. This fact sheet provides a brief synopsis of 12 recent (2001-09) USGS hydrologic history and regionalization studies in Texas organized thematically and chronologically.

  18. Storm Water Management Model Applications Manual (United States)

    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model that computes runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. This manual is a practical application guide for new SWMM users who have already had some previous training in hydrolog...

  19. Ground-Based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Compact Observation Data (1-second sampling, sub-hourly files) from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Observation Data (1-second sampling, sub-hourly files) from the NASA Crustal Dynamics...

  20. Ground-Based Meteorological Data (sub-hourly files) from Co-Located Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Receivers from NASA CDDIS (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This dataset consists of ground-based Meteorological Data (sub-hourly files) from instruments co-located with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers...

  1. A generalized regional design storm rainfall model for Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Design of drainage and dam structures involves a full understanding of the duration, magnitude and volume of peak flood flows anticipated. For gauged catchments a number of established flood frequency models and rainfall-runoff models are used widely. However, most planned developments for bridge or dam or any ...


    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrade...

  3. A strategy for “constraint-based” parameter specification for environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.; Shafiei, M.; Hrachowitz, M.; Fenicia, F.; Gupta, H.V.; Savenije, H.H.G.


    Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models, rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observed output time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available. Here, we explore another way to constrain the parameter values of

  4. A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Solomatine, D.P.; Lal Shrestha, D.


    A novel method is presented for model uncertainty estimation using machine learning techniques and its application in rainfall runoff modeling. In this method, first, the probability distribution of the model error is estimated separately for different hydrological situations and second, the

  5. Flood Peak Estimation Using Rainfall Run off Models | Matondo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The design of hydraulic structures such as road culverts, road bridges and dam spillways requires the determination of the design food peak. Two approaches are available in the determination of the design flood peak and these are: flood frequency analysis and rainfall runoff models. Flood frequency analysis requires a ...

  6. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume II – Hydraulics (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  7. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume I, Hydrology (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  8. The AGWA - KINEROS2 Suite of Modeling Tools in the Context of Watershed Services Valuation (United States)

    KINEROS originated in the 1970’s as a distributed event-based rainfall-runoff erosion model. A unique feature at that time was its interactive coupling of a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to the Smith-Parlange infiltration model. Developm...

  9. Deterministic-statistical model coupling in a DSS for river-basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Booij, Martijn J.


    This paper presents a method for appropriate coupling of deterministic and statistical models. In the decision-support system for the Elbe river, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to obtain the discharge statistics and corresponding average number of flood days, which is a key input

  10. Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.H.W.; Vrugt, J.A.; Fenicia, F.; Van de Giesen, N.C.


    Conceptual rainfall?runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first?order, explicit, fixed?step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are

  11. Assessing the radar rainfall estimates in watershed-scale water quality model (United States)

    Watershed-scale water quality models are effective science-based tools for interpreting change in complex environmental systems that affect hydrology cycle, soil erosion and nutrient fate and transport in watershed. Precipitation is one of the primary input data to achieve a precise rainfall-runoff ...

  12. GIS used as a tool in NOM modelling - Examples from the NOMiNOR project (United States)

    Haaland, Ståle


    GIS incorporate spatial data information. Regarding NOM, spatial information on basic data on rainfall-runoff and air temperature is interesting. The NOMiNOR project is a cooperation between waterworks in Finland, Norway, Scotland and Sweden. NOMiNOR uses digital terrain models (DTMs) in GIS environments for modelig and predicting future NOM concentrations and quality changes for raw water sources.

  13. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume III – Water Quality (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  14. Risk-assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semi-arid basins: The effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model (United States)

    Representation of precipitation is one of the most difficult aspects of modeling post-fire runoff and erosion and also one of the most sensitive input parameters to rainfall-runoff models. The impact of post-fire convective rainstorms, especially in semi-arid watersheds, depends on the overlap betwe...

  15. Radar altimetry assimilation in catchment-scale hydrological models (United States)

    Bauer-Gottwein, P.; Michailovsky, C. I. B.


    Satellite-borne radar altimeters provide time series of river and lake levels with global coverage and moderate temporal resolution. Current missions can detect rivers down to a minimum width of about 100m, depending on local conditions around the virtual station. Water level time series from space-borne radar altimeters are an important source of information in ungauged or poorly gauged basins. However, many water resources management applications require information on river discharge. Water levels can be converted into river discharge by means of a rating curve, if sufficient and accurate information on channel geometry, slope and roughness is available. Alternatively, altimetric river levels can be assimilated into catchment-scale hydrological models. The updated models can subsequently be used to produce improved discharge estimates. In this study, a Muskingum routing model for a river network is updated using multiple radar altimetry time series. The routing model is forced with runoff produced by lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff models in each subcatchment. Runoff is uncertain because of errors in the precipitation forcing, structural errors in the rainfall-runoff model as well as uncertain rainfall-runoff model parameters. Altimetric measurements are translated into river reach storage based on river geometry. The Muskingum routing model is forced with a runoff ensemble and storages in the river reaches are updated using a Kalman filter approach. The approach is applied to the Zambezi and Brahmaputra river basins. Assimilation of radar altimetry significantly improves the capability of the models to simulate river discharge.

  16. Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model


    Cho, Younghyun


    A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distribut...

  17. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik


    In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two ....... These properties make it more suitable for off-line applications. The IND can help in diagnosing the causes of output errors and is computationally inexpensive. It produces best results on short forecast horizons that are typical for online applications.......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  18. Long-term Regional Drought Forecasting by Combining Seasonal Weather Outlook, Hydrological Model and System Dynamic Model (United States)

    Kuo, C.; Wang, Y.; Yang, T.; Yu, P.


    This study integrated the rainfall-runoff model, seasonal weather outlook, and VENSIM system dynamic model to construct a long-term regional drought forecasting system. Central Taiwan contains several river basins. The water supplies and demands in these river basins compose several water resources systems in the region. To develop a long-term regional drought forecasting system for this region, the simulations of interaction among the water resources systems are required. The future inflows of reservoir for each individual water resources system are forecasted based on the seasonal (3 months ahead) weather outlook and the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the future water usage (trade-off between water demand and supply) of all water resources systems can be simulated by using the VENSIM system dynamic model. Therefore, the long-term regional drought can be forecasted based on the future water usage. The seasonal weather outlook provided by the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan is the trend probabilities of the monthly rainfall and monthly mean temperature for the three months ahead. By using the re-sampling approach, the trend probabilities for the future three months are converted to daily series as the input of rainfall-runoff model. The inflows of reservoir for each water resources system are simulated by the rainfall-runoff model (i.e., the HBV-based hydrological model) with corresponding calibrated model parameters. Then, the study can simulate the daily inflow series in the next 3 months. Since the study area contains several water resources systems, the VENSIM system dynamic model is used to simulate the trade-off between water supply and demand on the whole region. In the system dynamic model, the interactions among the available water, demand of each location and the adjustable water for neighbor system are simulated. Based on the simulations of VENSIM system dynamic model, the study can forecast the deficit amounts and the locations of possible drought in the

  19. Slope adjustment of runoff curve number (CN) using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) for Kuantan River Basin (United States)

    Akbari, Abolghasem


    The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff from rainfall. It employs the hydrologic soil groups and landuse information along with period soil moisture conditions to derive NRCS-CN. This method has been well documented and available in popular rainfall-runoff models such as HEC-HMS, SWAT, SWMM and many more. The Sharply-Williams and Hank methods was used to adjust CN values provided in standard table of TR-55. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is used to derive slope map with spatial resolution of 30 m for Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The two investigated method stretches the conventional CN domain to the lower values. The study shows a successful application of remote sensing data and GIS tools in hydrological studies. The result of this work can be used for rainfall-runoff simulation and flood modeling in KRB.

  20. A comparative study of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff (United States)

    Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi


    SummaryModeling of rainfall-runoff dynamics is one of the most studied topics in hydrology due to its essential application to water resources management. Recently, artificial intelligence has gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships inherent in the rainfall-runoff process. In this study, the advantages of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff were examined. Three different adaptive techniques were constructed and examined namely, Levenberg-Marquardt feed forward neural network, Bayesian regularization feed forward neural network, and neuro-fuzzy. In addition, the effects of data transformation on model performance were also investigated. This was done by examining the performance of the three network architectures and training algorithms using both raw and transformed data. Through inspection of the results it was found that although the model built on transformed data outperforms the model built on raw data, no significant differences were found between the forecast accuracies of the three examined models. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model performed better than both the Levenberg-Marquardt-FFNN and the Bayesian regularization-FFNN. In order to enable users to process the data easily, a graphic user interface (GUI) was developed. This program allows users to process the rainfall-runoff data, to train/test the model using various input options and to visualize results.

  1. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Melkassa Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Droughts, resulting in low crop yields, are common in the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia and adversely influence the wellbeing of many people. The introduction of any strategy that could increase yields would therefore be advantageous. The objective of this study was to attempt to assess the influence of in-field rainwater ...

  2. Application of a baseflow filter for evaluating model structure suitability of the IHACRES CMD (United States)

    Kim, H. S.


    The main objective of this study was to assess the predictive uncertainty from the rainfall-runoff model structure coupling a conceptual module (non-linear module) with a metric transfer function module (linear module). The methodology was primarily based on the comparison between the outputs of the rainfall-runoff model and those from an alternative model approach. An alternative model approach was used to minimise uncertainties arising from data and the model structure. A baseflow filter was adopted to better understand deficiencies in the forms of the rainfall-runoff model by avoiding the uncertainties related to data and the model structure. The predictive uncertainty from the model structure was investigated for representative groups of catchments having similar hydrological response characteristics in the upper Murrumbidgee Catchment. In the assessment of model structure suitability, the consistency (or variability) of catchment response over time and space in model performance and parameter values has been investigated to detect problems related to the temporal and spatial variability of the model accuracy. The predictive error caused by model uncertainty was evaluated through analysis of the variability of the model performance and parameters. A graphical comparison of model residuals, effective rainfall estimates and hydrographs was used to determine a model's ability related to systematic model deviation between simulated and observed behaviours and general behavioural differences in the timing and magnitude of peak flows. The model's predictability was very sensitive to catchment response characteristics. The linear module performs reasonably well in the wetter catchments but has considerable difficulties when applied to the drier catchments where a hydrologic response is dominated by quick flow. The non-linear module has a potential limitation in its capacity to capture non-linear processes for converting observed rainfall into effective rainfall in

  3. On 2D and 3D parameter derivatio n for r ainfall- r unoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Adamec


    Full Text Available Geoinformation technology, particularly GIS and digital terrain models, is commonly used at present in order to derive parameters of basins and flow paths. These parameters are subsequently used to create spatially based rainfall-runoff models. In line with the development of geoinformation technologies such models can be derived both in 2D and 3D formats. The question remains whether the 3D format is suitable for all parameters. In order to solve the question two basic parameters that will be affected by the derivation method were selected. One of them, the Subbasin Area parameter, is essential for the calculation of the precipitation volume for a given subbasin area and subsequently for the calculation of the runoff volume. This parameter is directly dependent on the chosen derivation method since the difference in areas derived in 2D and 3D formats depends on the area gradient. The other parameter, River Length, is important for the modelling of water motion within a stream as it influences the shape of hydrograph a nd the size of culmination discharge. Similarly to the first parameter, it is dependent on the area gradient and thus on the used derivation method. A semi-distributed model of the Lubina River basin in the HEC-HMS environment was chosen to represent spatially based rainfall-runoff models. The model was createdon the basis of ZABAGED hypsometry data.Suitability of the use of parameters derived in the 3D formatfor rainfall-runoff modelling is discussed in the concluding partof the paper.

  4. A distributed Grid-Xinanjiang model with integration of subgrid variability of soil storage capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-jian Guo


    Full Text Available Realistic hydrological response is sensitive to the spatial variability of landscape properties. For a grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model with a hypothesis of a uniform grid, the high-frequency information within a grid cell will be gradually lost as the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM grows coarser. Therefore, the performance of a hydrological model is usually scale-dependent. This study used the Grid-Xinanjiang (GXAJ model as an example to investigate the effects of subgrid variability on hydrological response at different scales. With the aim of producing a more reasonable hydrological response and spatial description of the landscape properties, a new distributed rainfall-runoff model integrating the subgrid variability (the GXAJSV model was developed. In this model, the topographic index is used as an auxiliary variable correlated with the soil storage capacity. The incomplete beta distribution is suggested for simulating the probability distribution of the soil storage capacity within the raster grid. The Yaogu Basin in China was selected for model calibration and validation at different spatial scales. Results demonstrated that the proposed model can effectively eliminate the scale dependence of the GXAJ model and produce a more reasonable hydrological response.

  5. Estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty when model residuals are correlated, heteroscedastic, and non-Gaussian (United States)

    Schoups, Gerrit; Vrugt, Jasper A.


    Estimation of parameter and predictive uncertainty of hydrologic models usually relies on the assumption of additive residual errors that are independent and identically distributed according to a normal distribution with a mean of zero and a constant variance. Here, we investigate to what extent estimates of parameter and predictive uncertainty are affected when these assumptions are relaxed. Parameter and predictive uncertainty are estimated by Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling from a generalized likelihood function that accounts for correlation, heteroscedasticity, and non-normality of residual errors. Application to rainfall-runoff modeling using daily data from a humid basin reveals that: (i) residual errors are much better described by a heteroscedastic, first-order auto-correlated error model with a Laplacian density characterized by heavier tails than a Gaussian density, and (ii) proper representation of the statistical distribution of residual errors yields tighter predictive uncertainty bands and more physically realistic parameter estimates that are less sensitive to the particular time period used for inference. The latter is especially useful for regionalization and extrapolation of parameter values to ungauged basins. Application to daily rainfall-runoff data from a semi-arid basin shows that allowing skew in the error distribution yields improved estimates of predictive uncertainty when flows are close to zero.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Sensitivity of the HEC-HMS runoff model for near-surface soil moisture contents on the example of a rapid-response catchment in SW Hungary. Due to the global climate change, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. To prevent, or at least mitigate flash flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are ideal tools to predict stream water levels. Model accuracy, nonetheless is profoundly influenced by input data quality. To obtain input data for the HEC-HMS distributed rainfall- runoff model, widely used for runoff forecasting, in present study we have regularly monitored ground precipitation, discharge and soil moisture in the Pósa Valley watershed (1.7 km2 in SW Hungary and data was extrapolated and upscaled to the broader area of the Bükkösd Watershed (99 km2. To test model applicability for flow time series reconstruction, the peak flow event of May 15 to 18, 2010 on the Bükkösd Stream was reproduced with the HEC-HMS. Model sensitivity was tested for various antecedent soil moisture values estimated from 2009, 2011 and 2012 in situ measured data. The output of the current research could be utilized for increasing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff model based flash flood warning systems for forested rapid response catchments that are representative for low-mountain environments under humid continental climates.

  7. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume ... (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps, and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each subcatchment, and the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised of multiple time steps. The reference manual for this edition of SWMM is comprised of three volumes. Volume I describes SWMM’s hydrologic models, Volume II its hydraulic models, and Volume III its water quality and low impact development models. Reference manual presenting underlying mathematics of the Storm Water Management Model - Volume III Water Quality Modules

  8. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume II ... (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps, and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each subcatchment, and the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised of multiple time steps. The reference manual for this edition of SWMM is comprised of three volumes. Volume I describes SWMM’s hydrologic models, Volume II its hydraulic models, and Volume III its water quality and low impact development models. This document provides the underlying mathematics for the hydraulic calculations of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

  9. Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes; Hidrologia de un ambiente Mediterraneo de montana. Las cuencas de Vallcebre (Pirineo Oriental) II. Relaciones precipitacion-escorrentia y procesos hidrologicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.


    Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

  10. A dam-reservoir module for a semi-distributed hydrological model (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena


    Developing modeling tools that help to assess the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue to achieve better solutions for the optimal management of water availability among users in a river basin. Streamflow dynamics depends on (i) the spatial variability of rainfall, (ii) the heterogeneity of catchment behavior and response, and (iii) local human regulations (e.g., reservoirs) that store and control surface water. These aspects can be successfully handled by distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models. In this study, we develop a dam-reservoir module within a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model (de Lavenne et al. 2016). The model runs at the daily time step, and has five parameters for each sub-catchment as well as a streamflow velocity parameter for flow routing. Its structure is based on two stores, one for runoff production and one for routing. The calibration of the model is performed from upstream to downstream sub-catchments, which efficiently uses spatially-distributed streamflow measurements. In a previous study, Payan et al. (2008) described a strategy to implement a dam module within a lumped rainfall-runoff model. Here we propose to adapt this strategy to a semi-distributed hydrological modelling framework. In this way, the specific location of existing reservoirs inside a river basin is explicitly accounted for. Our goal is to develop a tool that can provide answers to the different issues involved in spatial water management in human-influenced contexts and at large modelling scales. The approach is tested for the Seine basin in France. Results are shown for model performance with and without the dam module. Also, a comparison with the lumped GR5J model highlights the improvements obtained in model performance by considering human influences more explicitly, and by facilitating parameter identifiability. This work opens up new perspectives for streamflow naturalization analyses and scenario-based spatial assessment of water

  11. Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids (United States)

    Gray, James L.; Borch, Thomas; Furlong, Edward T.; Davis, Jessica; Yager, Tracy; Yang, Yun-Ya; Kolpin, Dana W.


    The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5 days prior to and 1, 9, and 35 days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10 μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the passage of a month.

  12. Rainfall-runoff properties of tephra: Simulated effects of grain-size and antecedent rainfall (United States)

    Jones, Robbie; Thomas, Robert E.; Peakall, Jeff; Manville, Vern


    Rain-triggered lahars (RTLs) are a significant and often persistent secondary volcanic hazard at many volcanoes around the world. Rainfall on unconsolidated volcaniclastic material is the primary initiation mechanism of RTLs: the resultant flows have the potential for large runout distances (> 100 km) and present a substantial hazard to downstream infrastructure and communities. RTLs are frequently anticipated in the aftermath of eruptions, but the pattern, timing and scale of lahars varies on an eruption-by-eruption and even catchment-by-catchment basis. This variability is driven by a set of local factors including the grain size distribution, thickness, stratigraphy and spatial distribution of source material in addition to topography, vegetation coverage and rainfall conditions. These factors are often qualitatively discussed in RTL studies based on post-eruption lahar observations or instrumental detections. Conversely, this study aims to move towards a quantitative assessment of RTL hazard in order to facilitate RTL predictions and forecasts based on constrained rainfall, grain size distribution and isopach data. Calibrated simulated rainfall and laboratory-constructed tephra beds are used within a repeatable experimental set-up to isolate the effects of individual parameters and to examine runoff and infiltration processes from analogous RTL source conditions. Laboratory experiments show that increased antecedent rainfall and finer-grained surface tephra individually increase runoff rates and decrease runoff lag times, while a combination of these factors produces a compound effect. These impacts are driven by increased residual moisture content and decreased permeability due to surface sealing, and have previously been inferred from downstream observations of lahars but not identified at source. Water and sediment transport mechanisms differ based on surface grain size distribution: a fine-grained surface layer displayed airborne remobilisation, accretionary pellet formation, rapid surface sealing and infiltration-excess overland flow generation whilst a coarse surface layer demonstrated exclusively rainsplash-driven particle detachment throughout the rainfall simulations. This experimental protocol has the potential to quantitatively examine the effects of a variety of individual parameters in RTL initiation under controlled conditions.

  13. Accumulation of contaminants from urban rainfall runoff in blue crabs: A pilot study (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The objective of this pilot study was to determine the feasibility of using caged blue crabs Callinectes sapidus to monitor accumulation of contaminants in urban...

  14. Space-time-frequency analysis of rainfall, runoff and temperature in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Available data on rainfall, temperature, and surface runoff from two upstream stations were used to develop a procedure for estimating runoff from the annual surplus values of precipitation minus reference evaporation. The resulting equations accounted for 74% to 77% of the variation in runoff. Spatial and temporal ...

  15. The role of bedrock groundwater in rainfall-runoff response at hillslope and catchment scales (United States)

    C. Gabrielli; J.J. McDonnell; W.T. Jarvis


    Bedrock groundwater dynamics in headwater catchments are poorly understood and poorly characterized. Direct hydrometric measurements have been limited due to the logistical challenges associated with drilling through hard rock in steep, remote and often roadless terrain. We used a new portable bedrock drilling system to explore bedrock groundwater dynamics aimed at...

  16. Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in Central Europe from 1951 to 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Müller


    Full Text Available Runoff data were used to better select historically significant precipitation events. The suggested criterion Qx expresses the increase of a stream runoff over up to four days in a row. Tests confirmed that Qx maxima correspond to maxima of areal precipitation in the respective catchment. Ten significant precipitation events in summer half-years from 1951 to 2002 were selected in 25 catchments each, and further studied in respect to spatial extent, simultaneous occurrence in various river basins, seasonal distribution, and temporal variability. Four regions were recognised within Central Europe that show related seasonality and simultaneous occurrence of events. The main coincidence of significant precipitation events was confirmed between the Austrian Alps and Bohemia and Saxony on one hand, and Moravia, Silesia, and Western Slovakia on the other hand. Significant events typically emerge here during peak summer, in the south-eastern area of the Alps during autumn months, in the South-Eastern Carpathians from May to July, and in Western Germany in spring or autumn. Episodes with less significant precipitation events (around 1960 and 1990 alternate with inverse episodes (1970's, second half of the 1990's. A reasonable selection of reference events opens the door to a quantitative evaluation of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions typical for heavy rains in various parts of Central Europe.

  17. Turbid releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, following rainfall-runoff events of September 2013 (United States)

    Wildman, Richard A.; Vernieu, William


    Glen Canyon Dam is a large dam on the Colorado River in Arizona. In September 2013, it released turbid water following intense thunderstorms in the surrounding area. Turbidity was >15 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for multiple days and >30 NTU at its peak. These unprecedented turbid releases impaired downstream fishing activity and motivated a rapid-response field excursion. At 5 locations upstream from the dam, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and turbidity were measured in vertical profiles. Local streamflow and rainfall records were retrieved, and turbidity and specific conductance data in dam releases were evaluated. Profiling was conducted to determine possible sources of turbidity from 3 tributaries nearest the dam, Navajo, Antelope, and Wahweap creeks, which entered Lake Powell as interflows during this study. We discuss 4 key conditions that must have been met for tributaries to influence turbidity of dam releases: tributary flows must have reached the dam, tributary flows must have been laden with sediment, inflow currents must have been near the depth of dam withdrawals, and the settling velocity of particles must have been slow. We isolate 2 key uncertainties that reservoir managers should resolve in future similar studies: the reach of tributary water into the reservoir thalweg and the distribution of particle size of suspended sediment. These uncertainties leave the source of the turbidity ambiguous, although an important role for Wahweap Creek is possible. The unique combination of limnological factors we describe implies that turbid releases at Glen Canyon Dam will continue to be rare.

  18. Model calibration for changing climates: lessons from Australian droughts. (United States)

    Fowler, K.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.; Zhang, L.


    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. They are often used when translating projected climatic shifts (eg. in rainfall or PET) into potential shortfalls in water availability. However, recent literature suggests that conceptual rainfall-runoff models have variable performance simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions. Models calibrated to wetter conditions tend to perform poorly when climatic conditions become drier. In particular, models often provide biased simulations after a change in climate. This suggests that either the models themselves are deficient, and/or common calibration methods need to be improved. Therefore, this research tested alternative calibration methods. The overall goal was to find parameter sets that are robust to changes in climate and provide better performance when evaluated over multi-year droughts. Two broad approaches were trialled: hydrologic signature matching (using the DREAM-ABC algorithm), and single-objective optimisation (using the CMA-ES algorithm). For hydrologic signature matching, 36 hydrologic signatures were defined and over 200 combinations of these signatures were trialled. For single objective optimisation, 15 different objective functions were trialled. For both methods, testing was carried out in 86 catchments in South East Australia using 5 different rainfall runoff models. The results indicate two broad strategies for improving calibration methods for changing climates. First, common 'least squares' methods are too sensitive to day-to-day variations and not sufficiently sensitive to long-term changes. Thus, signatures or objective functions that incorporate longer timescales (eg. annual) may do better. Second, the least squares method tended to be outperformed by methods that take the absolute error, such as the Index of Agreement. Together, these two strategies have potential to better prepare models for future climatic changes.

  19. Coupled 1-D sewer and street networks and 2-D flooding model to rapidly evaluate surface inundation (United States)

    Kao, Hong-Ming; Hsu, Hao-Ming


    Flash floods have occurred frequently in the urban areas around the world and cause the infrastructure and people living to expose continuously in the high risk level of pluvial flooding. According to historical surveys, the major reasons of severe surface inundations in the urban areas can be attributed to heavy rainfall in the short time and/or drainage system failure. In order to obtain real-time flood forecasting with high accuracy and less uncertainty, an appropriate system for predicting floods is necessary. For the reason, this study coupled 1-D sewer and street networks and 2-D flooding model as an operational modelling system for rapidly evaluating surface inundation. The proposed system is constructed by three significant components: (1) all the rainfall-runoff of a sub-catchment collected via gullies is simulated by the RUNOFF module of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM); (2) and directly drained to the 1-D sewer and street networks via manholes as inflow discharges to conduct flow routing by using the EXTRAN module of SWMM; (3) after the 1-D simulations, the surcharges from manholes are considered as point sources in 2-D overland flow simulations that are executed by the WASH123D model. It can thus be used for urban flood modelling that reflects the rainfall-runoff processes, and the dynamic flow interactions between the storm sewer system and the ground surface in urban areas. In the present study, we adopted the Huwei Science and Technology Park, located in the south-western part of Taiwan, as the demonstration area because of its high industrial values. The region has an area about 1 km2 with approximately 1 km in both length and width. It is as isolated urban drainage area in which there is a complete sewer system that collects the runoff and drains to the detention pond. Based on the simulated results, the proposed modelling system was found that the simulated floods fit to the survey records because the physical rainfall-runoff phenomena in

  20. The quest for knowledge: to what extent can transparent modelling methodologies extract useful hydrological information? (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Ghani, N. Ab; Shamseldin, A. Y.


    The capabilities of two transparent modelling methodologies to extract useful hydrological information is reported. Experimental emulators were constructed in a controlled environment that comprised digital inputs and outputs for a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model: the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model (Zhao et al., 1980; Zhao, 1992). This model was designed for use in humid or semi-humid regions and is based on the concept of runoff formation on repletion of storage i.e. runoff is not produced until the soil moisture content of the aeration zone reaches field storage capacity and thereafter runoff equals rainfall excess without further loss. It has been applied with success to large areas including all of the agricultural, pastoral and forested lands [except for the loess] of China (Zhao & Liu, 1995, p.230). The model has a small number of parameters, its structure and components have strong physical meaning, and these factors in combination make it a popular tool for hydrological modelling. Two methods were used to develop a set of transparent emulators: ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and GEP (Gene Expression Programming). The simplest form of the conceptual model that required four inputs and had no temporal component was examined. Model inputs comprised a set of uniform random distributions that had been computed in a statistical package and the cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. The potential of each tool to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is evaluated as is the power of each individual method to capture and communicate important aspects of a recognised non-linear hydrological modelling equation.

  1. An integrated modeling framework to anticipate water scarcity and inform integrative water system response in the Pacific Northwest (United States)

    Vache, K. B.; Bolte, J.; Haggerty, R.


    We present a new modeling strategy that has been developed to evaluate potential effects on water resource availability of the combination of changing demographics and climate change in large and complex earth systems. The framework makes use of a spatially and temporally variable GIS system, along with an actor-based decision-making algorithm, to produce a series of scenario-based trajectories of change. A plug-in modeling architecture is used to provide a variety of evaluative models access to the changing landscape data, resulting in a series of feedback loops which can be used to modify actor decision-making in a dynamic fashion. We present a case study from the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, and include plug-in models accounting for snowpack development, rainfall-runoff relationships, groundwater, surface water storage and dam management, as well as both agriculture and urban water demand.

  2. Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model (United States)

    Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.


    The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource

  3. Sensitivity analysis of variable resolution precipitation data in the Sauer river catchment, Luxembourg, with regard to hydrological modelling (United States)

    Krier, R.; Görgen, K.; Matgen, P.; Pfister, L.; Uhlenbrook, S.; Savenije, H. H. G.


    The uncertainty in precipitation observations largely influences the performance of rainfall-runoff models. In this study we present first results of a sensitivity analysis that should help to improve our understanding on the impacts on hydrological model simulations of different rainfall datasets that are characterized by variable spatial resolutions. The study area is the well-equipped/observed meso-scale catchment of the Sauer River in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. Data used are observations from 15 rain gauges, radar rainfall estimations from the German Weather Service (RADOLAN dataset (Bartels, 2004)) and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (Wideumont C-band weather radar), as well as the outputs of the regional atmospheric model WRF. In a first step we assess the suitability of the data as forcing datasets specifically for hydrological modelling by analysing and comparing their properties with regard to precipitation climatology, extreme events and rainfall patterns. The radar and WRF grid data are combined with raingauge data by applying the Sinclair-Pegram (Sinclair and Pegram, 2005) radar-gauge merging method. The aim of this analysis is to produce suitable data sets, which can be used in a future step to force various hydrological models based on the FLEX model (Fenicia et al, 2007), a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, with different spatial model structures. References: Bartels H. (2004): Projekt RADOLAN, Routineverfahren zur Online-Aneichung der Radarniederschlagsdaten mit Hilfe von automatischen Bodenniederschlagsstationen (Ombrometer), Projekt-Abschlussbericht Fenicia F., Savenije H.H.G., Matgen P. and Pfister L. (2007): A comparison of alternative multiobjective calibration strategies for hydrological modelling. Water Resources Research, 43(3), W03434, doi:10.1029/2006WR005098 Sinclair S. and Pegram G. (2005): Combining radar and rain gauge rainfall estimates using conditional merging. Atmospheric Science Letter, 6, 19-22, 2983.

  4. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    the effects of climate change on the current Iberian power system. The Iberian power system is a competitive power market where power price is determined by power supply and demand, and which can be simulated by a market equilibrium model considering the power demand function and the installed capacities...... and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...

  5. Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.G. Littlewood


    Full Text Available An established rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology employing a six-parameter unit hydrograph-based rainfall-runoff model structure is developed further to give an improved model-fit to daily flows for the River Teifi at Glan Teifi. It is shown that a previous model of this type for the Teifi, which (a accounted for 85% of the variance in observed streamflow, (b incorporated a pure time delay of one day and (c was calibrated using a trade-off between two model-fit statistics (as recommended in the original methodology, systematically over-estimates low flows. Using that model as a starting point the combined application of a non-integer pure time delay and further adjustment of a temperature modulation parameter in the loss module, using the flow duration curve as an additional model-fit criterion, gives a much improved model-fit to low flows, while leaving the already good model-fit to higher flows essentially unchanged. The further adjustment of the temperature modulation loss module parameter in this way is much more effective at improving model-fit to low flows than the introduction of the non-integer pure time delay. The new model for the Teifi accounts for 88% of the variance in observed streamflow and performs well over the 5 percentile to 95 percentile range of flows. Issues concerning the utility and efficacy of the new model selection procedure are discussed in the context of hydrological studies, including regionalisation. Keywords: unit hydrographs, rainfall-runoff modelling, low flows, regionalisation.

  6. A novel approach to model dynamic flow interactions between storm sewer system and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas (United States)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Wang, Chia-Ho; Chen, Albert S.


    In this study, we developed a novel approach to simulate dynamic flow interactions between storm sewers and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas. The proposed approach couples the one-dimensional (1D) sewer flow model (SFM) and the two-dimensional (2D) overland flow model (OFM) with different techniques depending on the land cover type of the study areas. For roads, pavements, plazas, and so forth where rainfall becomes surface runoff before entering the sewer system, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated directly in the 2D OFM, and the runoff is drained to the sewer network via inlets, which is regarded as the input to 1D SFM. For green areas on which rainfall falls into the permeable ground surface and the generated direct runoff traverses terrain, the deduction rate is applied to the rainfall for reflecting the soil infiltration in the 2D OFM. For flat building roofs with drainage facilities allowing rainfall to drain directly from the roof to sewer networks, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated using the hydrological module in the 1D SFM where no rainfall is applied to these areas in the 2D OFM. The 1D SFM is used for hydraulic simulations in the sewer network. Where the flow in the drainage network exceeds its capacity, a surcharge occurs and water may spill onto the ground surface if the pressure head in a manhole exceeds the ground elevation. The overflow discharge from the sewer system is calculated by the 1D SFM and considered a point source in the 2D OFM. The overland flow will return into the sewer network when it reaches an inlet that connects to an un-surcharged manhole. In this case, the inlet is considered as a point sink in the 2D OFM and an inflow to a manhole in the 1D SFM. The proposed approach was compared to other five urban flood modelling techniques with four rainfall events that had previously recorded inundation areas. The merits and drawbacks of each modelling technique were compared and discussed. Based on the

  7. Comparison of two methods of phosphorus transport modelling in large areas (United States)

    Jáchymová, Barbora; Krása, Josef; Borovec, Jakub


    Water erosion is a natural process of soil surface disturbance by rainfall and surface runoff. Phosphorus transported by surface runoff is followed by eutrophication of water bodies and water quality issues. The problem rises with climate change and increasing climate extremity. Agriculture soil, infrastructure and water quality protection have to be ensured by suitable legislative measures. The efficiency of these measures can be proved by suitable mathematical modeling of the soil erosion and nutrient transport to watercourses and water bodies. Research provided by the Department of Irrigation Drainage and Landscape Engineering FCE CTU is focused on the water erosion modeling, including nutrients transport. This research comprises either experimental rainfall-runoff and erosion events measuring or using mathematical models for calculation of runoff and erosion intensity in small and larger basins. The long-term erosion intensity on the area of 32 thousand square kilometers has been calculated using the empiric model WATEM/SEDEM. Within the project (QI102A265) the methodology for the dissolved phosphorus transport direct determination has been derived (Borovec et al., 2012; Jan et al., 2013). Only total soluble P affects actual water eutrophication. Phosphorus can be released, temporarily retained or permanently locked up, depending on the particles composition and the water body and sediment conditions. According the new methodology phosphorus desorption from the sediment particles is defined by actual dissolved P concentration within the stream and the available P (defined by Mehlich III test) in the source agricultural fields. This article presents the comparison between the indirect determination of the transported dissolved phosphorus using the equation of Sharpley (1995), based on usually used enrichment ratio and assumed share of the dissolved phosphorus in the total transported phosphorus during erosion event, and the direct determination of the

  8. Assessing the potential of using telecommunication microwave links in urban drainage modelling. (United States)

    Fencl, M; Rieckermann, J; Schleiss, M; Stránský, D; Bareš, V


    The ability to predict the runoff response of an urban catchment to rainfall is crucial for managing drainage systems effectively and controlling discharges from urban areas. In this paper we assess the potential of commercial microwave links (MWL) to capture the spatio-temporal rainfall dynamics and thus improve urban rainfall-runoff modelling. Specifically, we perform numerical experiments with virtual rainfall fields and compare the results of MWL rainfall reconstructions to those of rain gauge (RG) observations. In a case study, we are able to show that MWL networks in urban areas are sufficiently dense to provide good information on spatio-temporal rainfall variability and can thus considerably improve pipe flow prediction, even in small subcatchments. In addition, the better spatial coverage also improves the control of discharges from urban areas. This is especially beneficial for heavy rainfall, which usually has a high spatial variability that cannot be accurately captured by RG point measurements.

  9. Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model (United States)

    Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut


    Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand

  10. Modeling of the fate of radionuclides in urban sewer systems after contamination due to nuclear or radiological incidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urso, L.; Kaiser, J.C.; Andersson, Kasper Grann


    and building development as well as dependence on bomb construction e.g. design and geometry. At short-term, the first rainfall is an important way of natural decontamination: deposited radionuclides are washed off from surfaces and in urban areas the resulting contaminated runoff enters the sewer system...... and is collected in a sewage plant. Up to now the potential exposure caused by this process has received little attention and is estimated here with simulation models. The commercial rainfall-runoff model for urban sewer systems KANALþþ has been extended to include transport of radionuclides from surfaces through....... The concentration of Cs-137 in water is calculated at the nodes of the drainage system and at the sewage treatment plant. The external exposure to staff of the treatment plant is estimated. For Cs-137 radiation levels in the plant are low since wash-off of cesium from surfaces is an ineffective process. © 2012...

  11. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins. (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano


    The use of rainfall-runoff models represents an alternative to statistical approaches (such as at-site or regional flood frequency analysis) for design flood estimation, and constitutes an answer to the increasing need for synthetic design hydrographs (SDHs) associated to a specific return period. However, the lack of streamflow observations and the consequent high uncertainty associated with parameter estimation, usually pose serious limitations to the use of process-based approaches in ungauged catchments, which in contrast represent the majority in practical applications. This work presents the application of a Bayesian procedure that, for a predefined rainfall-runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameters distribution, using the limited and uncertain information available for the response of an ungauged catchment (Bulygina et al. 2009; 2011). The use of regional estimates of river flow statistics, interpreted as hydrological signatures that measure theoretically relevant system process behaviours (Gupta et al. 2008), within this framework represents a valuable option and has shown significant developments in recent literature to constrain the plausible model response and to reduce the uncertainty in ungauged basins. In this study we rely on the first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima, for which regressions are available from previous studies (Biondi et al. 2012; Laio et al. 2011). The methodology was carried out for a catchment located in southern Italy, and used within a Monte Carlo scheme (MCs) considering both event-based and continuous simulation approaches for design flood estimation. The applied procedure offers promising perspectives to perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ungauged basins; moreover, in the context of design flood estimation, process-based methods coupled with MCs approach have the advantage of providing simulated floods uncertainty analysis that represents an asset in risk-based decision

  12. Groundwater modelling in conceptual hydrological models - introducing space (United States)

    Boje, Søren; Skaugen, Thomas; Møen, Knut; Myrabø, Steinar


    The tiny Sæternbekken Minifelt (Muren) catchment (7500 m2) in Bærumsmarka, Norway, was during the 1990s, densely instrumented with more than a 100 observation points for measuring groundwater levels. The aim was to investigate the link between shallow groundwater dynamics and runoff. The DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model is a newly developed rainfall-runoff model used operationally by the Norwegian Flood-Forecasting service at NVE. The model estimates the capacity of the subsurface reservoir at different levels of saturation and predicts overland flow. The subsurface in the DDD model has a 2-D representation that calculates the saturated and unsaturated soil moisture along a hillslope representing the entire catchment in question. The groundwater observations from more than two decades ago are used to verify assumptions of the subsurface reservoir in the DDD model and to validate its spatial representation of the subsurface reservoir. The Muren catchment will, during 2017, be re-instrumented in order to continue the work to bridge the gap between conceptual hydrological models, with typically single value or 0-dimension representation of the subsurface, and models with more realistic 2- or 3-dimension representation of the subsurface.

  13. Lotic Water Hydrodynamic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judi, David Ryan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tasseff, Byron Alexander [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Water-related natural disasters, for example, floods and droughts, are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards, both socially and economically. Many of these floods are a result of excess rainfall collecting in streams and rivers, and subsequently overtopping banks and flowing overland into urban environments. Floods can cause physical damage to critical infrastructure and present health risks through the spread of waterborne diseases. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed Lotic, a state-of-the-art surface water hydrodynamic model, to simulate propagation of flood waves originating from a variety of events. Lotic is a two-dimensional (2D) flood model that has been used primarily for simulations in which overland water flows are characterized by movement in two dimensions, such as flood waves expected from rainfall-runoff events, storm surge, and tsunamis. In 2013, LANL developers enhanced Lotic through several development efforts. These developments included enhancements to the 2D simulation engine, including numerical formulation, computational efficiency developments, and visualization. Stakeholders can use simulation results to estimate infrastructure damage and cascading consequences within other sets of infrastructure, as well as to inform the development of flood mitigation strategies.

  14. Modeling watershed-scale 137Cs transport in a forested catchment affected by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. (United States)

    Wei, Lezhang; Kinouchi, Tsuyoshi; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Velleux, Mark L


    The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 resulted in 137Cs contamination of large areas in northeast Japan. A watershed-scale 137Cs transport model was developed and applied to a forested catchment in Fukushima area. This model considers 137Cs wash-off from vegetation, movement through soils, and transport of dissolved and particulate 137Cs adsorbed to clay, silt and sand. Comparisons between measurements and simulations demonstrated that the model well reproduced 137Cs concentrations in the stream fed from the catchment. Simulations estimated that 0.57 TBq of 137Cs was exported from the catchment between June, 2011 and December, 2014. Transport largely occurred with eroded sediment particles at a ratio of 17:70:13 of clay, silt, and sand. The overall 137Cs reduction ratio by rainfall-runoff wash-off was about 1.6%. Appreciable 137Cs remained in the catchment at the end of 2014. The largest rate of 137Cs reduction by wash-off was simulated to occur in subwatersheds of the upper catchment. However, despite relatively low initial deposition, middle portions of the watershed exported proportionately more 137Cs by rainfall-runoff processes. Simulations indicated that much of the transported 137Cs originates from erosion over hillsides and river banks. These results suggested that areas where 137Cs accumulates with redeposited sediments can be targeted for decontamination and also provided insight into 137Cs transport at the watershed scale to assess risk management and decontamination planning efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The RMS US inland flood model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jankowfsky Sonja


    Full Text Available The RMS US inland flood model provides flood hazard data of up to 10×10m resolution for the Contiguous United States for different return periods. The flood maps were developed using a series of physically based models. First, several thousand years of precipitation were simulated using principal component analysis coupled to a tropical cyclone precipitation model. Then, discharge and runoff were calculated using a semi-distributed rainfall runoff and routing model based on the TOPMODEL approach run at an hourly time step. This in turn forms the input to the fluvial and pluvial inundation models, which uses the shallow water equation to simulate flood propagation. Each of the individual model components such as precipitation, discharge and flood extent and depth were validated individually. The model generally performed very well compared to available flood maps, especially in the high exposure areas, even if it has some difficulties in the dry low exposure areas of the United States, which are heavily influenced by water management. The flood maps will be the base for the fully probabilistic loss model including a financial model. Via the simulated Hurricane track data set the flood model will be coupled to the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane model.

  16. Integration of a Three-Dimensional Process-Based Hydrological Model into the Object Modeling System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Formetta


    Full Text Available The integration of a spatial process model into an environmental modeling framework can enhance the model’s capabilities. This paper describes a general methodology for integrating environmental models into the Object Modeling System (OMS regardless of the model’s complexity, the programming language, and the operating system used. We present the integration of the GEOtop model into the OMS version 3.0 and illustrate its application in a small watershed. OMS is an environmental modeling framework that facilitates model development, calibration, evaluation, and maintenance. It provides innovative techniques in software design such as multithreading, implicit parallelism, calibration and sensitivity analysis algorithms, and cloud-services. GEOtop is a physically based, spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model that performs three-dimensional finite volume calculations of water and energy budgets. Executing GEOtop as an OMS model component allows it to: (1 interact directly with the open-source geographical information system (GIS uDig-JGrass to access geo-processing, visualization, and other modeling components; and (2 use OMS components for automatic calibration, sensitivity analysis, or meteorological data interpolation. A case study of the model in a semi-arid agricultural catchment is presented for illustration and proof-of-concept. Simulated soil water content and soil temperature results are compared with measured data, and model performance is evaluated using goodness-of-fit indices. This study serves as a template for future integration of process models into OMS.

  17. Open source integrated modeling environment Delta Shell (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Jagers, B.; van Putten, H.


    In the last decade, integrated modelling has become a very popular topic in environmental modelling since it helps solving problems, which is difficult to model using a single model. However, managing complexity of integrated models and minimizing time required for their setup remains a challenging task. The integrated modelling environment Delta Shell simplifies this task. The software components of Delta Shell are easy to reuse separately from each other as well as a part of integrated environment that can run in a command-line or a graphical user interface mode. The most components of the Delta Shell are developed using C# programming language and include libraries used to define, save and visualize various scientific data structures as well as coupled model configurations. Here we present two examples showing how Delta Shell simplifies process of setting up integrated models from the end user and developer perspectives. The first example shows coupling of a rainfall-runoff, a river flow and a run-time control models. The second example shows how coastal morphological database integrates with the coastal morphological model (XBeach) and a custom nourishment designer. Delta Shell is also available as open-source software released under LGPL license and accessible via

  18. Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Using Channel Flow Routing Model with Updating by Particle Filter (United States)

    Kudo, R.; Chikamori, H.; Nagai, A.


    A real-time flood forecasting system using channel flow routing model was developed for runoff forecasting at water gauged and ungaged points along river channels. The system is based on a flood runoff model composed of upstream part models, tributary part models and downstream part models. The upstream part models and tributary part models are lumped rainfall-runoff models, and the downstream part models consist of a lumped rainfall-runoff model for hillslopes adjacent to a river channel and a kinematic flow routing model for a river channel. The flow forecast of this model is updated by Particle filtering of the downstream part model as well as by the extended Kalman filtering of the upstream part model and the tributary part models. The Particle filtering is a simple and powerful updating algorithm for non-linear and non-gaussian system, so that it can be easily applied to the downstream part model without complicated linearization. The presented flood runoff model has an advantage in simlecity of updating procedure to the grid-based distributed models, which is because of less number of state variables. This system was applied to the Gono-kawa River Basin in Japan, and flood forecasting accuracy of the system with both Particle filtering and extended Kalman filtering and that of the system with only extended Kalman filtering were compared. In this study, water gauging stations in the objective basin were divided into two types of stations, that is, reference stations and verification stations. Reference stations ware regarded as ordinary water gauging stations and observed data at these stations are used for calibration and updating of the model. Verification stations ware considered as ungaged or arbitrary points and observed data at these stations are used not for calibration nor updating but for only evaluation of forecasting accuracy. The result confirms that Particle filtering of the downstream part model improves forecasting accuracy of runoff at

  19. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall


    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  20. Scale effects of Hortonian overland flow and rainfall-runoff dynamics in a West African catena landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.


    Hortonian runoff was measured from plots with lengths of 1?25 and 12 m, and at watershed level for rainstorms during the 1996 rainy season in cental Côte d'Ivoire, Africa. A clear reduction in runoff coefficients was found with increasing slope lengths, giving order of magnitude differences between

  1. Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction. (United States)

    Sansalone, John; Raje, Saurabh; Kertesz, Ruben; Maccarone, Kerrilynn; Seltzer, Karl; Siminari, Michele; Simms, Peter; Wood, Brandon


    The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating "no-net-load-increase" criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term "no-net-load-increases". A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves "no-net-load-increases" at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cascading rainfall uncertainty into flood inundation impact models (United States)

    Souvignet, Maxime; Freer, Jim E.; de Almeida, Gustavo A. M.; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Champion, Adrian J.; Cloke, Hannah L.; Bates, Paul D.


    Observed and numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulated precipitation products typically show differences in their spatial and temporal distribution. These differences can considerably influence the ability to predict hydrological responses. For flood inundation impact studies, as in forecast situations, an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic model chain is needed to quantify the extent of flood risk. Uncertainties cascaded through the model chain are seldom explored, and more importantly, how potential input uncertainties propagate through this cascade, and how best to approach this, is still poorly understood. This requires a combination of modelling capabilities, the non-linear transformation of rainfall to river flow using rainfall-runoff models, and finally the hydraulic flood wave propagation based on the runoff predictions. Improving the characterisation of uncertainty, and what is important to include, in each component is important for quantifying impacts and understanding flood risk for different return periods. In this paper, we propose to address this issue by i) exploring the effects of errors in rainfall on inundation predictive capacity within an uncertainty framework by testing inundation uncertainty against different comparable meteorological conditions (i.e. using different rainfall products) and ii) testing different techniques to cascade uncertainties (e.g. bootstrapping, PPU envelope) within the GLUE (generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation) framework. Our method cascades rainfall uncertainties into multiple rainfall-runoff model structures using the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE). The resultant prediction uncertainties in upstream discharge provide uncertain boundary conditions that are cascaded into a simplified shallow water hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP). Rainfall data captured by three different measurement techniques - rain gauges, gridded radar data and numerical weather predictions (NWP) models are evaluated

  3. Uncertainty Analysis of Multi-Model Flood Forecasts

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    Erich J. Plate


    Full Text Available This paper demonstrates, by means of a systematic uncertainty analysis, that the use of outputs from more than one model can significantly improve conditional forecasts of discharges or water stages, provided the models are structurally different. Discharge forecasts from two models and the actual forecasted discharge are assumed to form a three-dimensional joint probability density distribution (jpdf, calibrated on long time series of data. The jpdf is decomposed into conditional probability density distributions (cpdf by means of Bayes formula, as suggested and explored by Krzysztofowicz in a series of papers. In this paper his approach is simplified to optimize conditional forecasts for any set of two forecast models. Its application is demonstrated by means of models developed in a study of flood forecasting for station Stung Treng on the middle reach of the Mekong River in South-East Asia. Four different forecast models were used and pairwise combined: forecast with no model, with persistence model, with a regression model, and with a rainfall-runoff model. Working with cpdfs requires determination of dependency among variables, for which linear regressions are required, as was done by Krzysztofowicz. His Bayesian approach based on transforming observed probability distributions of discharges and forecasts into normal distributions is also explored. Results obtained with his method for normal prior and likelihood distributions are identical to results from direct multiple regressions. Furthermore, it is shown that in the present case forecast accuracy is only marginally improved, if Weibull distributed basic data were converted into normally distributed variables.

  4. Conceptual modelling of E. coli in urban stormwater drains, creeks and rivers (United States)

    Jovanovic, Dusan; Hathaway, Jon; Coleman, Rhys; Deletic, Ana; McCarthy, David T.


    Accurate estimation of faecal microorganism levels in water systems, such as stormwater drains, creeks and rivers, is needed for appropriate assessment of impacts on receiving water bodies and the risks to human health. The underlying hypothesis for this work is that a single conceptual model (the MicroOrganism Prediction in Urban Stormwater model - i.e. MOPUS) can adequately simulate microbial dynamics over a variety of water systems and wide range of scales; something which has not been previously tested. Additionally, the application of radar precipitation data for improvement of the model performance at these scales via more accurate areal averaged rainfall intensities was tested. Six comprehensive Escherichia coli (E. coli) datasets collected from five catchments in south-eastern Australia and one catchment in Raleigh, USA, were used to calibrate the model. The MOPUS rainfall-runoff model performed well at all scales (Nash-Sutcliffe E for instantaneous flow rates between 0.70 and 0.93). Sensitivity analysis showed that wet weather urban stormwater flows can be modelled with only three of the five rainfall runoff model parameters: routing coefficient (K), effective imperviousness (IMP) and time of concentration (TOC). The model's performance for representing instantaneous E. coli fluctuations ranged from 0.17 to 0.45 in catchments drained via pipe or open creek, and was the highest for a large riverine catchment (0.64); performing similarly, if not better, than other microbial models in literature. The model could also capture the variability in event mean concentrations (E = 0.17-0.57) and event loads (E = 0.32-0.97) at all scales. Application of weather radar-derived rainfall inputs caused lower overall performance compared to using gauged rainfall inputs in representing both flow and E. coli levels in urban drain catchments, with the performance improving with increasing catchment size and being comparable to the models that use gauged rainfall inputs at the

  5. Integrating Local Scale Drainage Measures in Meso Scale Catchment Modelling

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    Sandra Hellmers


    Full Text Available This article presents a methodology to optimize the integration of local scale drainage measures in catchment modelling. The methodology enables to zoom into the processes (physically, spatially and temporally where detailed physical based computation is required and to zoom out where lumped conceptualized approaches are applied. It allows the definition of parameters and computation procedures on different spatial and temporal scales. Three methods are developed to integrate features of local scale drainage measures in catchment modelling: (1 different types of local drainage measures are spatially integrated in catchment modelling by a data mapping; (2 interlinked drainage features between data objects are enabled on the meso, local and micro scale; (3 a method for modelling multiple interlinked layers on the micro scale is developed. For the computation of flow routing on the meso scale, the results of the local scale measures are aggregated according to their contributing inlet in the network structure. The implementation of the methods is realized in a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model. The implemented micro scale approach is validated with a laboratory physical model to confirm the credibility of the model. A study of a river catchment of 88 km2 illustrated the applicability of the model on the regional scale.

  6. Analysis of intensively used catchments based on integrated modelling (United States)

    Bach, Michael; Ostrowski, Manfred


    SummaryA model system that overcomes the separation of rural and urban areas for an integrated immission based modelling of catchments with complex land use is presented. To account for both the sewer system dynamic processes and the dynamics of single events in the runoff processes from rural areas, the model operates on a high temporal resolution and in continuous mode. The basic system structure and the rural areas are represented by means of a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff and pollution load model that allows for a user-specified spatial resolution. For each urbanized area within the catchment an urban hydrological pollution load model is used. This allows for a detailed assessment of the urban drainage structure even for multiple settlements within one catchment. Pollutant transport, mixing, and transformation processes within the receiving water body are modelled to account for accumulating and long-term effects. The model concept was applied to a real world case study. It was found that the consideration of all impacts is essential for an immission based approach. It can be concluded that a realistic description of the water body status can only be achieved by means of a detailed representation of both flow and mass transport processes in urban and rural parts of the catchment as well as the receiving water body in a high temporal and spatial resolution.

  7. Weather Radar Estimations Feeding an Artificial Neural Network Model Weather Radar Estimations Feeding an Artificial Neural Network Model

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    Dawei Han


    Full Text Available The application of ANNs (Artifi cial Neural Networks has been studied by many researchers in modelling rainfall runoff processes. However, the work so far has been focused on the rainfall data from traditional raingauges. Weather radar is a modern technology which could provide high resolution rainfall in time and space. In this study, a comparison in rainfall runoff modelling between the raingauge and weather radar has been carried out. The data were collected from Brue catchment in Southwest of England, with 49 raingauges covering 136 km2 and two C-band weather radars. This raingauge network is extremely dense (for research purposes and does not represent the usual raingauge density in operational flood forecasting systems. The ANN models were set up with both lumped and spatial rainfall input. The results showed that raingauge data outperformed radar data in all the events tested, regardless of the lumped and spatial input. La aplicación de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA en el modelado de lluvia-flujo ha sido estudiada ampliamente. Sin embargo, hasta ahora se han utilizado datos provenientes de pluviómetros tradicionales. Los radares meteorológicos son una tecnología moderna que puede proveer datos de lluvia de alta resolución en tiempo y espacio. Este es un trabajo de comparación en el modelado lluvia-flujo entre pluviómetros y radares meteorológicos. Los datos provienen de la cuenca del río Brue en el suroeste de Inglaterra, con 49 pluviómetros cubriendo 136 km2 y dos radares meteorológicos en la banda C. Esta red de pluviómetros es extremadamente densa (para investigación y no representa la densidad usual en sistemas de predicción de inundaciones. Los modelos de RNA fueron implementados con datos de entrada de lluvia tanto espaciados como no distribuidos. Los resultados muestran que los datos de los pluviómetros fueron mejores que los datos de los radares en todos los eventos probados.

  8. Impact of rainfall temporal resolution on urban water quality modelling performance and uncertainties. (United States)

    Manz, Bastian Johann; Rodríguez, Juan Pablo; Maksimović, Cedo; McIntyre, Neil


    A key control on the response of an urban drainage model is how well the observed rainfall records represent the real rainfall variability. Particularly in urban catchments with fast response flow regimes, the selection of temporal resolution in rainfall data collection is critical. Furthermore, the impact of the rainfall variability on the model response is amplified for water quality estimates, as uncertainty in rainfall intensity affects both the rainfall-runoff and pollutant wash-off sub-models, thus compounding uncertainties. A modelling study was designed to investigate the impact of altering rainfall temporal resolution on the magnitude and behaviour of uncertainties associated with the hydrological modelling compared with water quality modelling. The case study was an 85-ha combined sewer sub-catchment in Bogotá (Colombia). Water quality estimates showed greater sensitivity to the inter-event variability in rainfall hyetograph characteristics than to changes in the rainfall input temporal resolution. Overall, uncertainties from the water quality model were two- to five-fold those of the hydrological model. However, owing to the intrinsic scarcity of observations in urban water quality modelling, total model output uncertainties, especially from the water quality model, were too large to make recommendations for particular model structures or parameter values with respect to rainfall temporal resolution.

  9. Runoff forecasting using a Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy model with online learning (United States)

    Talei, Amin; Chua, Lloyd Hock Chye; Quek, Chai; Jansson, Per-Erik


    SummaryA study using local learning Neuro-Fuzzy System (NFS) was undertaken for a rainfall-runoff modeling application. The local learning model was first tested on three different catchments: an outdoor experimental catchment measuring 25 m2 (Catchment 1), a small urban catchment 5.6 km2 in size (Catchment 2), and a large rural watershed with area of 241.3 km2 (Catchment 3). The results obtained from the local learning model were comparable or better than results obtained from physically-based, i.e. Kinematic Wave Model (KWM), Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The local learning algorithm also required a shorter training time compared to a global learning NFS model. The local learning model was next tested in real-time mode, where the model was continuously adapted when presented with current information in real time. The real-time implementation of the local learning model gave better results, without the need for retraining, when compared to a batch NFS model, where it was found that the batch model had to be retrained periodically in order to achieve similar results.

  10. Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade (United States)

    Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo


    Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed

  11. Can the super model (SUMO) method improve hydrological simulations? Exploratory tests with the GR hydrological models (United States)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles


    Errors made by hydrological models may come from a problem in parameter estimation, uncertainty on observed measurements, numerical problems and from the model conceptualization that simplifies the reality. Here we focus on this last issue of hydrological modeling. One of the solutions to reduce structural uncertainty is to use a multimodel method, taking advantage of the great number and the variability of existing hydrological models. In particular, because different models are not similarly good in all situations, using multimodel approaches can improve the robustness of modeled outputs. Traditionally, in hydrology, multimodel methods are based on the output of the model (the simulated flow series). The aim of this poster is to introduce a different approach based on the internal variables of the models. The method is inspired by the SUper MOdel (SUMO, van den Berge et al., 2011) developed for climatology. The idea of the SUMO method is to correct the internal variables of a model taking into account the values of the internal variables of (an)other model(s). This correction is made bilaterally between the different models. The ensemble of the different models constitutes a super model in which all the models exchange information on their internal variables with each other at each time step. Due to this continuity in the exchanges, this multimodel algorithm is more dynamic than traditional multimodel methods. The method will be first tested using two GR4J models (in a state-space representation) with different parameterizations. The results will be presented and compared to traditional multimodel methods that will serve as benchmarks. In the future, other rainfall-runoff models will be used in the super model. References van den Berge, L. A., Selten, F. M., Wiegerinck, W., and Duane, G. S. (2011). A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning. Earth System Dynamics, 2(1) :161-177.

  12. On the use of three hydrological models as hypotheses to investigate the behaviour of a small Mediterranean catchment (United States)

    Ruiz Pérez, Guiomar; Latron, Jérôme; Llorens, Pilar; Gallart, Francesc; Francés, Félix


    Selecting an adequate hydrological model is the first step to carry out a rainfall-runoff modelling exercise. A hydrological model is a hypothesis of catchment functioning, encompassing a description of dominant hydrological processes and predicting how these processes interact to produce the catchment's response to external forcing. Current research lines emphasize the importance of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling instead of only using a single model. In line with this philosophy, here different hypotheses were considered and analysed to simulate the nonlinear response of a small Mediterranean catchment and to progress in the analysis of its hydrological behaviour. In particular, three hydrological models were considered representing different potential hypotheses: two lumped models called LU3 and LU4, and one distributed model called TETIS. To determine how well each specific model performed and to assess whether a model was more adequate than another, we raised three complementary tests: one based on the analysis of residual errors series, another based on a sensitivity analysis and the last one based on using multiple evaluation criteria associated to the concept of Pareto frontier. This modelling approach, based on multiple working hypotheses, helped to improve our perceptual model of the catchment behaviour and, furthermore, could be used as a guidance to improve the performance of other environmental models.

  13. Hydrological model performance and parameter estimation in the wavelet-domain

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    B. Schaefli


    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method for rainfall-runoff model calibration and performance analysis in the wavelet-domain by fitting the estimated wavelet-power spectrum (a representation of the time-varying frequency content of a time series of a simulated discharge series to the one of the corresponding observed time series. As discussed in this paper, calibrating hydrological models so as to reproduce the time-varying frequency content of the observed signal can lead to different results than parameter estimation in the time-domain. Therefore, wavelet-domain parameter estimation has the potential to give new insights into model performance and to reveal model structural deficiencies. We apply the proposed method to synthetic case studies and a real-world discharge modeling case study and discuss how model diagnosis can benefit from an analysis in the wavelet-domain. The results show that for the real-world case study of precipitation – runoff modeling for a high alpine catchment, the calibrated discharge simulation captures the dynamics of the observed time series better than the results obtained through calibration in the time-domain. In addition, the wavelet-domain performance assessment of this case study highlights the frequencies that are not well reproduced by the model, which gives specific indications about how to improve the model structure.

  14. Model synthesis in frequency analysis of Missouri floods (United States)

    Hauth, Leland D.


    Synthetic flood records for 43 small-stream sites aided in definition of techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in Missouri. The long-term synthetic flood records were generated by use of a digital computer model of the rainfall-runoff process. A relatively short period of concurrent rainfall and runoff data observed at each of the 43 sites was used to calibrate the model, and rainfall records covering from 66 to 78 years for four Missouri sites and pan-evaporation data were used to generate the synthetic records. Flood magnitude and frequency characteristics of both the synthetic records and observed long-term flood records available for 109 large-stream sites were used in a multiple-regression analysis to define relations for estimating future flood characteristics at ungaged sites. That analysis indicated that drainage basin size and slope were the most useful estimating variables. It also indicated that a more complex regression model than the commonly used log-linear one was needed for the range of drainage basin sizes available in this study.

  15. Application of pesticide transport model for simulating diazinon runoff in California’s central valley (United States)

    Joyce, Brian A.; Wallender, Wesley W.; Mailapalli, Damodhara R.


    Dormant spray application of pesticides to almond and other stone fruit orchards is the main source of diazinon during the winter in California's central valley. Understanding the pesticide transport and the tradeoffs associated with the various management practices is greatly facilitated by the use of physically-based contaminant transport models. In this study, performance of Joyce's et al. (2008) pesticide transport model was evaluated using experimental data collected from two ground treatments such as resident vegetation and bare soil. The model simulation results obtained in calibration and validation process were analyzed for pesticide concentration and total load. The pesticide transport model accurately predicted the pesticide concentrations and total load in the runoff from bare field and was capable of simulating chemical responses to rainfall-runoff events. In case of resident vegetation, the model results exhibited a larger range of variation than was observed in the bare soil simulations due to increased model parameterization with the addition of foliage and thatch compartments. Furthermore, the model was applied to study the effect of runoff lag time, extent of crop cover, organic content of soil and post-application irrigation on the pesticide peak concentration and total load. Based on the model results, recommendations were suggested to growers prior to implementing certain management decisions to mitigate diazinon transport in the orchard's spray runoff.

  16. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

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    Rudari Roberto


    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  17. Effect of calibration data length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model

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    Chuan-Zhe LI


    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data length on the performance and optimal parameter values of hydrological model in ungauged or data limited catchments (actually, data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we choose to use non-continuous calibration periods to have more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and percentage water balance error (WBE are used as performance measures. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO method is used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different length of data range from 1 year to 10 years randomly sampled used for study on impact of calibration data length. 55 relatively unimpaired catchments all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data are tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that, longer calibration data does not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, 8 years data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for SIMHYD model. It is also show that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to get good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications in the efficiency of limited observation data used for hydrological model calibration in different climatic catchments.

  18. Flow analysis with WaSiM-ETH – model parameter sensitivity at different scales

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    J. Cullmann


    Full Text Available WaSiM-ETH (Gurtz et al., 2001, a widely used water balance simulation model, is tested for its suitability to serve for flow analysis in the context of rainfall runoff modelling and flood forecasting. In this paper, special focus is on the resolution of the process domain in space as well as in time. We try to couple model runs with different calculation time steps in order to reduce the effort arising from calculating the whole flow hydrograph at the hourly time step. We aim at modelling on the daily time step for water balance purposes, switching to the hourly time step whenever high-resolution information is necessary (flood forecasting. WaSiM-ETH is used at different grid resolutions, thus we try to become clear about being able to transfer the model in spatial resolution. We further use two different approaches for the overland flow time calculation within the sub-basins of the test watershed to gain insights about the process dynamics portrayed by the model. Our findings indicate that the model is very sensitive to time and space resolution and cannot be transferred across scales without recalibration.

  19. Discrete phase model representation of particulate matter (PM) for simulating PM separation by hydrodynamic unit operations. (United States)

    Dickenson, Joshua A; Sansalone, John J


    Modeling the separation of dilute particulate matter (PM) has been a topic of interest since the introduction of unit operations for clarification of rainfall-runoff. One consistent yet controversial issue is the representation of PM and PM separation mechanisms for treatment. While Newton's Law and surface overflow rate were utilized, many historical models represented PM as a lumped gravimetric index largely out of economy and lack of particle analysis methods. As a result such models did not provide information about particle fate in or through a unit operation. In this study, PM discrete phase modeling (DPM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are applied to model PM fate as a function of particle size and flow rate in two common types of hydrodynamic separator (HS) units. The study examines the discretization requirements (as a discretization number, DN) and errors for particle size distributions (PSDs) that range from the common heterodisperse to a monodisperse PSD. PSDs are categorized based on granulometric indices. Results focus on ensuring modeling accuracy while examining the role of size dispersivity and overall PM fineness on DN requirements. The fate of common heterodisperse PSDs is accurately predicted for a DN of 16, whereas a single particle size index, commonly the d(50m), is limited to monodisperse PSDs in order to achieve similar accuracy.

  20. A CN-Based Ensembled Hydrological Model for Enhanced Watershed Runoff Prediction

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    Muhammad Ajmal


    Full Text Available A major structural inconsistency of the traditional curve number (CN model is its dependence on an unstable fixed initial abstraction, which normally results in sudden jumps in runoff estimation. Likewise, the lack of pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA procedure is another inherent limitation of the model. To circumvent those problems, we used a variable initial abstraction after ensembling the traditional CN model and a French four-parameter (GR4J model to better quantify direct runoff from ungauged watersheds. To mimic the natural rainfall-runoff transformation at the watershed scale, our new parameterization designates intrinsic parameters and uses a simple structure. It exhibited more accurate and consistent results than earlier methods in evaluating data from 39 forest-dominated watersheds, both for small and large watersheds. In addition, based on different performance evaluation indicators, the runoff reproduction results show that the proposed model produced more consistent results for dry, normal, and wet watershed conditions than the other models used in this study.

  1. Modularised process-based modelling of phosphorus loss at farm and catchment scale

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    M. G. Hutchins


    Full Text Available In recent years, a co-ordinated programme of data collection has resulted in the collation of sub-hourly time-series of hydrological, sediment and phosphorus loss data, together with soil analysis, cropping and management information for two small ( Keywords: phosphorus, erosion, process-based modelling, agriculture

  2. Kajian Model Estimasi Volume Limpasan Permukaan, Debit Puncak Aliran, dan Erosi Tanah dengan Model Soil Conservation Service (SCS, Rasional Dan Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE (Studi Kasus di DAS Keduang, Wonogiri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugro Hari Murtiono


    Full Text Available Hydrologic modelling has been developing and it is usefull for basic data in managing water resources. The aim of the reseach is to estimate volume runoff, maximum discharge, and soil erosion with SCS, Rational, and MUSLE models on Keduang Watershed. Explain the data analysis, and flow to get the data. SCS parameters model use are: runoff, rainfall, deferent between rainfall runoff. The deferent rainfall between runoff relationship kurva Runoff Coefisient (Curve Nunmber/CN. This Coefisient connected with Soil Hydrology Group (antecedent moisture content/AMC, landuse, and cultivation method. Rational parameters model use are: runoff coefisient, soil type, slope, land cover, rainfall intensity, and watershed areas. MUSLE parameters model use are: rainfall erosifity (RM, soil erodibility (K, slope length (L, slope (S, land cover (C, and soil conservation practice (P. The result shows that the conservation service models be applied Keduang Watershed, Wonogiri is over estimed abaut 29.54 %, Rational model is over estimed abaut 49.96 %, and MUSLE model is over estimed abaut 48.47 %.

  3. Can a stepwise steady flow computational fluid dynamics model reproduce unsteady particulate matter separation for common unit operations? (United States)

    Pathapati, Subbu-Srikanth; Sansalone, John J


    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is emerging as a model for resolving the fate of particulate matter (PM) by unit operations subject to rainfall-runoff loadings. However, compared to steady flow CFD models, there are greater computational requirements for unsteady hydrodynamics and PM loading models. Therefore this study examines if integrating a stepwise steady flow CFD model can reproduce PM separation by common unit operations loaded by unsteady flow and PM loadings, thereby reducing computational effort. Utilizing monitored unit operation data from unsteady events as a metric, this study compares the two CFD modeling approaches for a hydrodynamic separator (HS), a primary clarifier (PC) tank, and a volumetric clarifying filtration system (VCF). Results indicate that while unsteady CFD models reproduce PM separation of each unit operation, stepwise steady CFD models result in significant deviation for HS and PC models as compared to monitored data; overestimating the physical size requirements of each unit required to reproduce monitored PM separation results. In contrast, the stepwise steady flow approach reproduces PM separation by the VCF, a combined gravitational sedimentation and media filtration unit operation that provides attenuation of turbulent energy and flow velocity.

  4. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Recent Advances in the Modeling of Hydrologic Systems

    CERN Document Server

    O’Connell, P


    Modeling of the rainfall-runoff process is of both scientific and practical significance. Many of the currently used mathematical models of hydrologic systems were developed a genera­ tion ago. Much of the effort since then has focused on refining these models rather than on developing new models based on improved scientific understanding. In the past few years, however, a renewed effort has been made to improve both our fundamental understanding of hydrologic processes and to exploit technological advances in computing and remote sensing. It is against this background that the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Recent Advances in the Modeling of Hydrologic Systems was organized. The idea for holding a NATO ASI on this topic grew out of an informal discussion between one of the co-directors and Professor Francisco Nunes-Correia at a previous NATO ASI held at Tucson, Arizona in 1985. The Special Program Panel on Global Transport Mechanisms in the Geo-Sciences of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division agreed to sp...

  5. A multitemporal remote sensing approach to parsimonious streamflow modeling in a southcentral Texas watershed, USA (United States)

    Weissling, B. P.; Xie, H.; Murray, K. E.


    Soil moisture condition plays a vital role in a watershed's hydrologic response to a precipitation event and is thus parameterized in most, if not all, rainfall-runoff models. Yet the soil moisture condition antecedent to an event has proven difficult to quantify both spatially and temporally. This study assesses the potential to parameterize a parsimonious streamflow prediction model solely utilizing precipitation records and multi-temporal remotely sensed biophysical variables (i.e.~from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra satellite). This study is conducted on a 1420 km2 rural watershed in the Guadalupe River basin of southcentral Texas, a basin prone to catastrophic flooding from convective precipitation events. A multiple regression model, accounting for 78% of the variance of observed streamflow for calendar year 2004, was developed based on gauged precipitation, land surface temperature, and enhanced vegetation Index (EVI), on an 8-day interval. These results compared favorably with streamflow estimations utilizing the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number method and the 5-day antecedent moisture model. This approach has great potential for developing near real-time predictive models for flood forecasting and can be used as a tool for flood management in any region for which similar remotely sensed data are available.

  6. Stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) equations: integration with erosion models for water quality prediction (United States)

    Sheridan, G.; Jones, O. D.; Smith, H.; Cawson, J.; Lane, P. J.


    In a companion paper at this conference a single-event steady-state rainfall-runoff model (including runoff-runon phenomena) is derived that quantifies the effect of the random spatial arrangement of rainfall and soil properties on i) infiltration-excess runoff delivery at a downslope boundary, and ii) the distribution of the "connected length" (the upslope length with a continuous runoff pathway adjacent to the stream boundary). The accumulation and loss of runoff down a slope is represented as a first-in first-out (FIFO) GI/G/1 queuing system. Runoff rate at a downslope boundary is analogous to the waiting time in the queue in this representation. The distribution of connected length can be represented analytically as a FIFO M/M/1 queuing system, and the mean and variance is derived for this property. Together these distributions characterise the degree of connectivity of the overland flow pathway (and by extension its associated pollutant load) for a given set of rainfall and soil conditions. In this poster, the stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) model is developed further. We show how the probabilistic SRC model outputs i) and ii) above can be integrated with physically based hillslope scale surface erosion models to predict the probability distribution of constituent (sediment, phosphorous, etc) delivery to the stream boundary. The performance of the model is compared to 2 years of multi-length erosion plot data, and 3 years of continuous small catchment export data from SE Australian forests.

  7. Overland flow computations in urban and industrial catchments from direct precipitation data using a two-dimensional shallow water model. (United States)

    Cea, L; Garrido, M; Puertas, J; Jácome, A; Del Río, H; Suárez, J


    This paper presents the experimental validation and the application to a real industrial catchment of a two-dimensional depth-averaged shallow water model used for the computation of rainfall-runoff transformation from direct precipitation data. Instead of using the common approach in flood inundation modelling, which consists in computing the water depth and velocity fields given the water discharge, in this study the rainfall intensity is imposed directly in the model, the surface runoff being generated automatically. The model considers infiltration losses simultaneously with flow simulation. Gullies are also included in the model, although the coupling between the surface runoff and the sewer network is not considered. Experimental validation of the model is presented in several simplified laboratory configurations of urban catchments, in which the surface runoff has been measured for different hyetographs. The application to a real industrial catchment includes a sewer network flow component, which is solved with the SWMM model. The numerical predictions of the discharge hydrograph generated by a 12 hours storm event are compared with field measurements, providing encouraging results.

  8. Infiltration Losses Calculated for the Flash Flood in the Upper Catchment of Geru River, Galaţi County, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balan Isabela


    Full Text Available MIKE software created by Danish Institute of Hydraulics can be used to perform mathematical modelling of rainfall-runoff process on the hillslopes, resulting in a runoff hydrograph in the closing section of a catchment. The software includes a unitary hydrograph method - UHM in the hydrological module Rainfall - Runoff. Excess rainfall is routed to the river and transited through unit hydrograph method. The model divides the flood generating precipitation in excess rainfall (net rainfall and losses (infiltration.

  9. Finite-element modelling of physics-based hillslope hydrology, Keith Beven, and beyond (United States)

    Loague, Keith; Ebel, Brian A.


    Keith Beven is a voice of reason on the intelligent use of models and the subsequent acknowledgement/assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental simula-tion. With several books and hundreds of papers, Keith’s work is widespread, well known, and highly referenced. Four of Keith’s most notable contributions are the iconic TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979), classic papers on macropores and preferential flow (Beven and Germann, 1982, 2013), two editions of the rainfall-runoff modelling bible (Beven, 2000a, 2012), and the selection/commentary for the first volume from the Benchmark Papers in Hydrology series (Beven, 2006b). Remarkably, the thirty-one papers in his benchmark volume, entitled Streamflow Generation Processes, are not tales of modelling wizardry but describe measurements designed to better understand the dynamics of near-surface systems (quintessential Keith). The impetus for this commentary is Keith’sPhD research (Beven, 1975), where he developed a new finite-element model and conducted concept-development simu-lations based upon the processes identified by, for example, Richards (1931), Horton (1933), Hubbert (1940), Hewlett and Hibbert (1963), and Dunne and Black (1970a,b). Readers not familiar with the different mechanisms of streamflow generation are referred to Dunne (1978).

  10. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois


    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  11. Committee of machine learning predictors of hydrological models uncertainty (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri


    , 2013. [3] N., Kayastha, J. Ye, F. Fenicia, V. Kuzmin, and D. P. Solomatine. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements and tests. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4441-4451, 2013

  12. Modelling catchment hydrology within a GIS based SVAT-model framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ludwig


    Full Text Available The physically-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model PROMET (PRocess-Oriented Model for Evapo Transpiration developed at the Institute of Geography, University of Munich, is applied to the Ammer basin (approx. 600 km2 in the alpine foreland of Germany. The hourly actual evapotranspiration rate is calculated for a 14-year time series. A rainfall-runoff model, based on an enhanced distributed TOPMODEL structure, is linked to the SVAT-model in order to provide a hydrological model covering the water-cycle at the basin scale in a 30m-resolution. The model is driven with meteorological data taken from regular synoptic stations of the German Weather Service. Soil physical and plant physiological parameters for the SVAT model were either measured at the test site or taken from literature. The topographical parameters were derived from detailed digital terrain analysis. The study intends to combine, within a GIS-based model framework, the understanding and application of physical processes inherent in the basin such as the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of evapotranspiration and runoff patterns. The influence of an evapotranspiration coefficient ETcoeff, implemented in the formulation of the soil-topographic-index, to account for seasonal dynamics in distributed runoff formation due to the annual course of vegetation activity is investigated. The SVAT model shows convincing results in the long-term water balance description with a mean annual deviation of less then 6% over a fourteen year time period. Introducing the evapotranspiration-soil-topographic-index αET leads to a considerable improvement; the runoff model component simulating the daily runoff over the year reaches an efficiency of ε = 0.92. Keywords: Water cycle; Geographic Information System; SVAT; TOPMODEL

  13. Modelling surface water flood risk using coupled numerical and physical modelling techniques (United States)

    Green, D. L.; Pattison, I.; Yu, D.


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs due to intense precipitation events where rainfall cannot infiltrate into the sub-surface or drain via storm water systems. The perceived risk appears to have increased in recent years with pluvial flood events seeming more severe and frequent within the UK. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for one third of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas being at risk of a 1 in 200 year flood event. Surface water flooding research often focuses upon using 1D, 2D or 1D-2D coupled numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer an alternative and innovative environment to collect data within. A controlled, closed system allows independent variables to be altered individually to investigate cause and effect relationships. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered physical model consisting of: (i) a mist nozzle type rainfall simulator able to simulate a range of rainfall intensities similar to those observed within the United Kingdom, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, scaled plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of factors such as slope, impermeability, building density/configuration and storm dynamics on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a range of terrestrial surface conditions. Results obtained within the physical modelling environment will be compared with numerical modelling results using FloodMap (Yu & Lane, 2006

  14. Modelling subsurface storm flow with the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW approach: application to the Alzette River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Zhang


    Full Text Available A new domain, the macropore domain describing subsurface storm flow, has been introduced to the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW approach. The mass balance equations have been reformulated and the closure relations associated with subsurface storm flow have been developed. The model code, REWASH, has been revised accordingly. With the revised REWASH, a rainfall-runoff model has been built for the Hesperange catchment, a sub-catchment of the Alzette River Basin. This meso-scale catchment is characterised by fast catchment response to precipitation, and subsurface storm flow is one of the dominant runoff generation processes. The model has been evaluated by a multi-criteria approach using both discharge and groundwater table data measured at various locations in the study site. It is demonstrated that subsurface storm flow contributes considerably to stream flow in the study area. Simulation results show that discharges measured along the main river course are well simulated and groundwater dynamics is well captured, suggesting that the model is a useful tool for catchment-scale hydrological analysis.

  15. Modeling the stream water nitrate dynamics in a 60,000-km2 European catchment, the Garonne, southwest France. (United States)

    Tisseuil, Clément; Wade, Andrew J; Tudesque, Loïc; Lek, Sovan


    The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed under the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distributed catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO(3)-N patterns at large spatial (>300 km(2)) and temporal (> or = monthly) scales using available national datasets.

  16. Modelling and optimization of land use/land cover change in a developing urban catchment. (United States)

    Xu, Ping; Gao, Fei; He, Junchao; Ren, Xinxin; Xi, Weijin


    The impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on hydrological processes and water resources are mainly reflected in changes in runoff and pollutant variations. Low impact development (LID) technology is utilized as an effective strategy to control urban stormwater runoff and pollution in the urban catchment. In this study, the impact of LUCC on runoff and pollutants in an urbanizing catchment of Guang-Ming New District in Shenzhen, China, were quantified using a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Based on the simulations and observations, the main objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the catchment runoff and pollutant variations with LUCC, (2) to select and optimize the appropriate layout of LID in a planning scenario for reducing the growth of runoff and pollutants under LUCC, (3) to assess the optimal planning schemes for land use/cover. The results showed that compared to 2013, the runoff volume, peak flow and pollution load of suspended solids (SS), and chemical oxygen demand increased by 35.1%, 33.6% and 248.5%, and 54.5% respectively in a traditional planning scenario. The assessment result of optimal planning of land use showed that annual rainfall control of land use for an optimal planning scenario with LID technology was 65%, and SS pollutant load reduction efficiency 65.6%.

  17. The integrated hydrologic model intercomparison project, IH-MIP2: A second set of benchmark results to diagnose integrated hydrology and feedbacks (United States)

    Kollet, Stefan; Sulis, Mauro; Maxwell, Reed M.; Paniconi, Claudio; Putti, Mario; Bertoldi, Giacomo; Coon, Ethan T.; Cordano, Emanuele; Endrizzi, Stefano; Kikinzon, Evgeny; Mouche, Emmanuel; Mügler, Claude; Park, Young-Jin; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Stisen, Simon; Sudicky, Edward


    Emphasizing the physical intricacies of integrated hydrology and feedbacks in simulating connected, variably saturated groundwater-surface water systems, the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project initiated a second phase (IH-MIP2), increasing the complexity of the benchmarks of the first phase. The models that took part in the intercomparison were ATS, Cast3M, CATHY, GEOtop, HydroGeoSphere, MIKE-SHE, and ParFlow. IH-MIP2 benchmarks included a tilted v-catchment with 3-D subsurface; a superslab case expanding the slab case of the first phase with an additional horizontal subsurface heterogeneity; and the Borden field rainfall-runoff experiment. The analyses encompassed time series of saturated, unsaturated, and ponded storages, as well as discharge. Vertical cross sections and profiles were also inspected in the superslab and Borden benchmarks. An analysis of agreement was performed including systematic and unsystematic deviations between the different models. Results show generally good agreement between the different models, which lends confidence in the fundamental physical and numerical implementation of the governing equations in the different models. Differences can be attributed to the varying level of detail in the mathematical and numerical representation or in the parameterization of physical processes, in particular with regard to ponded storage and friction slope in the calculation of overland flow. These differences may become important for specific applications such as detailed inundation modeling or when strong inhomogeneities are present in the simulation domain.

  18. Evaluation of Synthetic Outlet Runoff Assessment Models | Adib ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Quantitative understanding and prediction of the processes of runoff generation and its transmission to the outlet represent one of the most basic and challenging areas of hydrology. Traditional techniques for design flood estimation use historical rainfall-runoff data for unit hydrograph (UH) derivation. Such techniques have ...

  19. Improved Bayesian multimodeling: Integration of copulas and Bayesian model averaging (United States)

    Madadgar, Shahrbanou; Moradkhani, Hamid


    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a popular approach to combine hydrologic forecasts from individual models and characterize the uncertainty induced by model structure. In the original form of BMA, the conditional probability density function (PDF) of each model is assumed to be a particular probability distribution (e.g., Gaussian, gamma, etc.). If the predictions of any hydrologic model do not follow certain distribution, a data transformation procedure is required prior to model averaging. Moreover, it is strongly recommended to apply BMA on unbiased forecasts, whereas it is sometimes difficult to effectively remove bias from the predictions of complex hydrologic models. To overcome these limitations, we develop an approach to integrate a group of multivariate functions, the so-called copula functions, into BMA. Here we introduce a copula-embedded BMA (Cop-BMA) method that relaxes any assumption on the shape of conditional PDFs. Copula functions have a flexible structure and do not restrict the shape of posterior distributions. Furthermore, copulas are effective tools in removing bias from hydrologic forecasts. To compare the performance of BMA with Cop-BMA, they are applied to hydrologic forecasts from different rainfall-runoff and land-surface models. We consider the streamflow observation and simulations for 10 river basins provided by the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) project. Results demonstrate that the predictive distributions are more accurate and reliable, less biased, and more confident with small uncertainty after Cop-BMA application. It is also shown that the postprocessed forecasts have better correlation with observation after Cop-BMA application.

  20. Comparison of Three Statistical Downscaling Methods and Ensemble Downscaling Method Based on Bayesian Model Averaging in Upper Hanjiang River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaming Liu


    Full Text Available Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. To improve the simulation accuracy of downscaling methods, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA method combined with three statistical downscaling methods, which are support vector machine (SVM, BCC/RCG-Weather Generators (BCC/RCG-WG, and Statistics Downscaling Model (SDSM, is proposed in this study, based on the statistical relationship between the larger scale climate predictors and observed precipitation in upper Hanjiang River Basin (HRB. The statistical analysis of three performance criteria (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, the coefficient of correlation, and the relative error shows that the performance of ensemble downscaling method based on BMA for rainfall is better than that of each single statistical downscaling method. Moreover, the performance for the runoff modelled by the SWAT rainfall-runoff model using the downscaled daily rainfall by four methods is also compared, and the ensemble downscaling method has better simulation accuracy. The ensemble downscaling technology based on BMA can provide scientific basis for the study of runoff response to climate change.

  1. Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter (United States)

    Pauwels, V. R. N.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.


    In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

  2. Testing a distributed hydrological model to predict scenarios of extreme events on a marginal olive orchard microcatchment (United States)

    Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; Taguas, Encarnación V.


    Olive groves constitute a traditional Mediterranean crop and thus, an important source of income to these regions and a crucial landscape component. Despite its importance, most of the olive groves in the region of Andalusia, Southern Spain, are located in sloping areas, which implies a significant risk of erosion. The combination of data and models allow enhancing the knowledge about processes taking place in these areas as well as the prediction of future scenarios. This aspect might be essential to plan soil protection strategies within a context of climate change where the IPCC estimates a significant increase of soil aridity and torrential events by the end of the century. The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall-runoff-sediment dynamics in a microcatchment olive grove with the aid of a physically-based distributed hydrological model in order to evaluate the effect of extreme events on runoff and erosion. This study will allow to improve land-use and management planning activities in similar areas. In addition, the scale of the study (microcatchment) will allow to contrast the results in larger areas such as catchment regional spatial scales.

  3. Dynamic simulation of water resources in an urban wetland based on coupled water quantity and water quality models. (United States)

    Zeng, Weibo; Xu, Youpeng; Deng, Xiaojun; Han, Longfei; Zhang, Qianyu


    Water quality in wetlands plays a huge role in maintaining the health of the wetland ecosystem. Water quality should be controlled by an appropriate water allocation policy for the protection of the wetlands. In this paper, models of rainfall/runoff, non-point source pollution load, water quantity/quality, and dynamic pollutant-carrying capacity were established to simulate the water quantity/quality of Xixi-wetland river network (in the Taihu basin, China). The simulation results showed a satisfactory agreement with field observations. Furthermore, a 'node-river-node' algorithm that adjusts to the 'Three Steps Method' was adopted to improve the dynamic pollutant-carrying capacity model and simulate the pollutant-carrying capacity in benchmark years. The simulation result shows that the water quality of the river network could reach class III stably all year round if the anthropogenic pollution is reduced to one-third of the current annual amount. Further investigation estimated the minimum amount of water diversion in benchmark years under the reasonable water quantity-regulating rule to keep water quality as class III. With comparison of the designed scale, the water diversion can be reduced by 184 million m3 for a dry year, 191 million m3 for a normal year, and 198 million m3 for a wet year.

  4. Does better rainfall interpolation improve hydrological model performance? (United States)

    Bàrdossy, Andràs; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elisabeth


    High spatial variability of precipitation is one of the main sources of uncertainty in rainfall/runoff modelling. Spatially distributed models require detailed space time information on precipitation as input. In the past decades a lot of effort was spent on improving precipitation interpolation using point observations. Different geostatistical methods like Ordinary Kriging, External Drift Kriging or Copula based interpolation can be used to find the best estimators for unsampled locations. The purpose of this work is to investigate to what extents more sophisticated precipitation estimation methods can improve model performance. For this purpose the Wye catchment in Wales was selected. The physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological model SHETRAN is used to describe the hydrological processes in the catchment. 31 raingauges with 1 hourly temporal resolution are available for a time period of 6 years. In order to avoid the effect of model uncertainty model parameters were not altered in this study. Instead 100 random subsets consisting of 14 stations each were selected. For each of the configurations precipitation was interpolated for each time step using nearest neighbor (NN), inverse distance (ID) and Ordinary Kriging (OK). The variogram was obtained using the temporal correlation of the time series measured at different locations. The interpolated data were used as input for the spatially distributed model. Performance was evaluated for daily mean discharges using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, temporal correlations, flow volumes and flow duration curves. The results show that the simplest NN and the sophisticated OK performances are practically equally good, while ID performed worse. NN was often better for high flows. The reason for this is that NN does not reduce the variance, while OK and ID yield smooth precipitation fields. The study points out the importance of precipitation variability and suggests the use of conditional spatial simulation as

  5. A conceptual snow model with an analytic resolution of the heat and phase change equations (United States)

    Riboust, Philippe; Le Moine, Nicolas; Thirel, Guillaume; Ribstein, Pierre


    Compared to degree-day snow models, physically-based snow models resolve more processes in an attempt to achieve a better representation of reality. Often these physically-based models resolve the heat transport equations in snow using a vertical discretization of the snowpack. The snowpack is decomposed into several layers in which the mechanical and thermal states of the snow are calculated. A higher number of layers in the snowpack allow for better accuracy but it also tends to increase the computational costs. In order to develop a snow model that estimates the temperature profile of snow with a lower computational cost, we used an analytical decomposition of the vertical profile using eigenfunctions (i.e. trigonometric functions adapted to the specific boundary conditions). The mass transfer of snow melt has also been estimated using an analytical conceptualization of runoff fingering and matrix flow. As external meteorological forcing, the model uses solar and atmospheric radiation, air temperature, atmospheric humidity and precipitations. It has been tested and calibrated at point scale at two different stations in the Alps: Col de Porte (France, 1325 m) and Weissfluhjoch (Switzerland, 2540 m). A sensitivity analysis of model parameters and model inputs will be presented together with a comparison with measured snow surface temperature, SWE, snow depth, temperature profile and snow melt data. The snow model is created in order to be ultimately coupled with hydrological models for rainfall-runoff modeling in mountainous areas. We hope to create a model faster than physically-based models but capable to estimate more physical processes than degree-day snow models. This should help to build a more reliable snow model capable of being easily calibrated by remote sensing and in situ observation or to assimilate these data for forecasting purposes.

  6. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions. (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret


    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements ( Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.


    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  8. Use of a tracer-aided model to identify water sources, flow paths and ages in a data sparse arctic headwater catchment (United States)

    Ilaria Piovano, Thea; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Wookey, Philip Andrew; Soulsby, Chris


    The hydrology of arctic ecosystems is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but the implications are difficult to assess due to limited empirical studies in these remote, logistically challenging regions. Stable water isotope tracers are invaluable tools for constraining hydrological processes. However, they have seen limited use in arctic catchments that are influenced by permafrost. Here, we present stable isotope data sampled in precipitation, snowmelt, soil water and surface water from a headwater catchment in the continuous permafrost zone of the NWT of Canada. We use this to identify the sources of water and estimate travel times through the catchment. We focus on the quantification of the water sources and flow paths during the critical, complex transition period between late snow melt and soil thaw. We also integrate the isotope data into the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff modelling framework (STARR) to explore the non-stationary flow and isotope response. The model simulates dynamic, spatially variable tracer concentrations in different water stores and fluxes within a catchment, which can constrain internal catchment mixing processes, flow paths and associated water ages. Our findings show that stable isotope tracers provide a useful, transferrable tool to assess the inter-annual and seasonal dynamics of arctic catchments and to understand the spatio-temporal variability of mixing and water ages for different storage components and flow paths in permafrost influenced cold regions.

  9. A framework to assess the realism of model structures using hydrological signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Euser


    Full Text Available The use of flexible hydrological model structures for hypothesis testing requires an objective and diagnostic method to identify whether a rainfall-runoff model structure is suitable for a certain catchment. To determine if a model structure is realistic, i.e. if it captures the relevant runoff processes, both performance and consistency are important. We define performance as the ability of a model structure to mimic a specific part of the hydrological behaviour in a specific catchment. This can be assessed based on evaluation criteria, such as the goodness of fit of specific hydrological signatures obtained from hydrological data. Consistency is defined as the ability of a model structure to adequately reproduce several hydrological signatures simultaneously while using the same set of parameter values. In this paper we describe and demonstrate a new evaluation Framework for Assessing the Realism of Model structures (FARM. The evaluation framework tests for both performance and consistency using a principal component analysis on a range of evaluation criteria, all emphasizing different hydrological behaviour. The utility of this evaluation framework is demonstrated in a case study of two small headwater catchments (Maimai, New Zealand, and Wollefsbach, Luxembourg. Eight different hydrological signatures and eleven model structures have been used for this study. The results suggest that some model structures may reveal the same degree of performance for selected evaluation criteria while showing differences in consistency. The results also show that some model structures have a higher performance and consistency than others. The principal component analysis in combination with several hydrological signatures is shown to be useful to visualise the performance and consistency of a model structure for the study catchments. With this framework performance and consistency are evaluated to identify which model structure suits a catchment better

  10. Urban Stormwater Management Model and Tools for Designing Stormwater Management of Green Infrastructure Practices (United States)

    Haris, H.; Chow, M. F.; Usman, F.; Sidek, L. M.; Roseli, Z. A.; Norlida, M. D.


    Urbanization is growing rapidly in Malaysia. Rapid urbanization has known to have several negative impacts towards hydrological cycle due to decreasing of pervious area and deterioration of water quality in stormwater runoff. One of the negative impacts of urbanization is the congestion of the stormwater drainage system and this situation leading to flash flood problem and water quality degradation. There are many urban stormwater management softwares available in the market such as Storm Water Drainage System design and analysis program (DRAINS), Urban Drainage and Sewer Model (MOUSE), InfoWorks River Simulation (InfoWork RS), Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M), Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), XP Storm Water Management Model (XPSWMM), MIKE-SWMM, Quality-Quantity Simulators (QQS), Storage, Treatment, Overflow, Runoff Model (STORM), and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). In this paper, we are going to discuss briefly about several softwares and their functionality, accessibility, characteristics and components in the quantity analysis of the hydrological design software and compare it with MSMA Design Aid and Database. Green Infrastructure (GI) is one of the main topics that has widely been discussed all over the world. Every development in the urban area is related to GI. GI can be defined as green area build in the develop area such as forest, park, wetland or floodway. The role of GI is to improve life standard such as water filtration or flood control. Among the twenty models that have been compared to MSMA SME, ten models were selected to conduct a comprehensive review for this study. These are known to be widely accepted by water resource researchers. These ten tools are further classified into three major categories as models that address the stormwater management ability of GI in terms of quantity and quality, models that have the capability of conducting the

  11. HD Hydrological modelling at catchment scale using rainfall radar observations (United States)

    Ciampalini Rossano. Ciampalini@Gmail. Com), Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Augas, Julien; Moussa, Roger; Colin, François; Le Bissonnais, Yves


    Hydrological simulations at catchment scale repose on the quality and data availability both for soil and rainfall data. Soil data are quite easy to be collected, although their quality depends on the resources devoted to this task, rainfall data observations, instead, need further effort because of their spatiotemporal variability. Rainfalls are normally recorded with rain gauges located in the catchment, they can provide detailed temporal data, but, the representativeness is limited to the point where the data are collected. Combining different gauges in space can provide a better representation of the rainfall event but the spatialization is often the main obstacle to obtain data close to the reality. Since several years, radar observations overcome this gap providing continuous data registration, that, when properly calibrated, can offer an adequate, continuous, cover in space and time for medium-wide catchments. Here, we use radar records for the south of the France on the La Peyne catchment with the protocol there adopted by the national meteo agency, with resolution of 1 km space and 5' time scale observations. We present here the realisation of a model able to perform from rainfall radar observations, continuous hydrological and soil erosion simulations. The model is semi-theoretically based, once it simulates water fluxes (infiltration-excess overland flow, saturation overland flow, infiltration and channel routing) with a cinematic wave using the St. Venant equation on a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, and, an empirical representation of sediment load as adopted in models such as STREAM-LANDSOIL (Cerdan et al., 2002, Ciampalini et al., 2012). The advantage of this approach is to furnish a dynamic representation - simulation of the rainfall-runoff events more easily than using spatialized rainfalls from meteo stations and to offer a new look on the spatial component of the events.

  12. High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change (United States)

    Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.


    Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a

  13. Machine learning methods for empirical streamflow simulation: a comparison of model accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty in seasonal watersheds (United States)

    Shortridge, Julie E.; Guikema, Seth D.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.


    In the past decade, machine learning methods for empirical rainfall-runoff modeling have seen extensive development and been proposed as a useful complement to physical hydrologic models, particularly in basins where data to support process-based models are limited. However, the majority of research has focused on a small number of methods, such as artificial neural networks, despite the development of multiple other approaches for non-parametric regression in recent years. Furthermore, this work has often evaluated model performance based on predictive accuracy alone, while not considering broader objectives, such as model interpretability and uncertainty, that are important if such methods are to be used for planning and management decisions. In this paper, we use multiple regression and machine learning approaches (including generalized additive models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, artificial neural networks, random forests, and M5 cubist models) to simulate monthly streamflow in five highly seasonal rivers in the highlands of Ethiopia and compare their performance in terms of predictive accuracy, error structure and bias, model interpretability, and uncertainty when faced with extreme climate conditions. While the relative predictive performance of models differed across basins, data-driven approaches were able to achieve reduced errors when compared to physical models developed for the region. Methods such as random forests and generalized additive models may have advantages in terms of visualization and interpretation of model structure, which can be useful in providing insights into physical watershed function. However, the uncertainty associated with model predictions under extreme climate conditions should be carefully evaluated, since certain models (especially generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines) become highly variable when faced with high temperatures.

  14. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and major and trace elements in simulated rainfall runoff from parking lots, Austin, Texas, 2003 (United States)

    Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Wilson, Jennifer T.


    Samples of creek bed sediment collected near seal-coated parking lots in Austin, Texas, by the City of Austin during 2001–02 had unusually elevated concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). To investigate the possibility that PAHs from seal-coated parking lots might be transported to urban creeks, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Austin, sampled runoff and scrapings from four test plots and 13 urban parking lots. The surfaces sampled comprise coal-tar-emulsion-sealed, asphalt-emulsion-sealed, unsealed asphalt, and unsealed concrete. Particulates and filtered water in runoff and surface scrapings were analyzed for PAHs. In addition, particulates in runoff were analyzed for major and trace elements. Samples of all three media from coal-tar-sealed parking lots had concentrations of PAHs higher than those from any other types of surface. The mean total PAH concentration in particulates in runoff from parking lots in use were 3,500,000, 620,000, and 54,000 micrograms per kilogram from coal-tar-sealed, asphalt-sealed, and unsealed (asphalt and concrete combined) lots, respectively. The probable effect concentration sediment quality guideline is 22,800 micrograms per kilogram. The mean total PAH (sum of detected PAHs) concentration in filtered water from parking lots in use was 8.6 micrograms per liter for coal-tar-sealed lots; the one sample analyzed from an asphalt-sealed lot had a concentration of 5.1 micrograms per liter and the one sample analyzed from an unsealed asphalt lot was 0.24 microgram per liter. The mean total PAH concentration in scrapings was 23,000,000, 820,000, and 14,000 micrograms per kilogram from coal-tar-sealed, asphalt-sealed, and unsealed asphalt lots, respectively. Concentrations of lead and zinc in particulates in runoff frequently exceeded the probable effect concentrations, but trace element concentrations showed no consistent variation with parking lot surface type.

  15. Application of Stable Isotope in Hydrologic Analysis of a Rainfall-Runoff Event in the Xin'an Jiang River Basin (United States)

    Chen, X.; Yi, P.; Chen, L.; Aldahan, A.


    Stable isotopes abundance of hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) are very sensitive to environmental changes and can help understand the complex recharges between surface water and groundwater. However, details of variability in the different components of water supply to watersheds are generally missing. We present here evaluation of isotopic changes in small watershed (0.19 km2) in the upstream of Xin'an River, Anhui province, China based on daily sampling of rainfall events and runoff (river and soil water). The δ2H and δ18O of different water sources in the watershed were aimed in order explore interactions between different parts of the hydrological processes. The collected water samples were analyzed for δ2H and δ18O using Picarro L-2120i analyzer at a precision of 1.0 and 0.1 ‰, respectively. The results indicated higher abundance of 2H and 18O in precipitation than those in river. Additionally, the content of the heavy isotopes also decreases in soil water with depth, while surface soil water was enriched because of evaporation. The response of the watershed to the changes in δ2H and δ18O varied, where water in upstream gained more heavy isotopes rapidly, while in the downstream part the enrichment happened after a few days. This feature suggests a different but still strong hydraulic connection between surface water and groundwater in the small watershed tested here. Accordingly, variability of δ2H and δ18O should be carefully evaluated on a local scale before application in transport system of large rivers and exchange with groundwater.

  16. Concentrations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Major and Trace Elements in Simulated Rainfall Runoff from Parking Lots, Austin, Texas, 2003

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mahler, Barbara J; Van Metre, Peter C; Wilson, Jennifer T


    Samples of creek bed sediment collected near seal-coated parking lots in Austin, Texas, by the City of Austin during 2001-02 had unusually elevated concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs...

  17. Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire (United States)

    Rengers, Francis; McGuire, Luke; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Hobley, D.E.J


    Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

  18. Since “Groundwater and Surface Water–A Single Resource”: some U.S. Geological Survey advances in modeling groundwater/surface-water interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Feinstein


    Full Text Available Field and interpretive studies conducted by T.C. Winter and U.S. Geological Survey colleagues, and summarized in the 1998 publication “Groundwater and Surface Water – A Single Resource”, inspired a new generation of research centered on extensions of the groundwater-flow code MODFLOW to more sophisticated simulation of coupled groundwater and surface-water systems. Guided by emerging concerns with water availability, safe yields from wells, health of aquatic habitat, and climate change, the changes to MODFLOW involve: 1 the ability to more precisely and accurately represent the interface between surface and subsurface flows and 2 the consideration of a variety of mechanisms that influence their interaction. A review of the most important changes to the code is supplemented in this article by selected case studies in an effort to show the scope of the advances. The updates discussed include the Streamflow Routing (SFR, Lake (LAK, and Unsaturated-Zone Flow (UZF Packages in MODFLOW-2005 and the Groundwater Management (GWM, Local Grid Refinement (LGR, and Newton (NWT formulation versions of MODFLOW-2005. New developments feature the integration of rainfall-runoff modeling with MODFLOW in GSFLOW, coupling of GFLOW and MODFLOW in a hybrid code, and the forthcoming unstructured grid version of MODFLOW. They promise continued advances in the ability to use science to protect the single water resource.

  19. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model. (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P


    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Sub-hourly changes in biogeochemical properties in surface waters of Zuari estuary, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anand, S.S.; Anju, K.J.; Mathew, D.; DileepKumar, M.

    Processes in natural waters are highly variable in time and space. Although changes are expected in short-time scales, how short one could get to measure reliably is subjective to sampling strategies and methodologies. Here, we show that sub...

  1. Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc


    Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6: 532-549 Berenguer M, D Sempere, G Pegram, 2011: SBMcast - An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian extrapolation. Journal of Hydrology 404: 226-240

  2. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jitendra Singh

    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of. 2005 Mumbai ...

  3. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai ...

  4. Quantifying conceptual hydrological flow paths across heterogeneous conditions using a tailored catchment model (United States)

    Mockler, Eva M.; Bruen, Michael


    As hydrology drives the nutrient and sediment processes at catchment scale, the hydrological processes in a model must be adequately represented in order for water quality simulations to be meaningful. Focus is increasingly turning to the internal movement of water within conceptual rainfall runoff models to investigate if the simulated processes contributing to the total flows are realistic. Difficulty arises when defining two or more flow paths that are conceptually distinct in relation to nutrient and sediment signatures, but have similar or overlapping discharge hydrograph responses. When this occurs, methods relating to physical hydrograph separation cannot be expected to distinguish between the different responses. There is a wealth of knowledge and conceptual understanding of hydrological and hydrogeological processes across Ireland. This knowledge has been incorporated into several spatial datasets of catchment characteristics including the Geological Survey of Ireland Groundwater Vulnerability Map and National Recharge Map. A tailored conceptual model for simulating flows in Irish catchments was developed that is linked with catchment characteristics to constrain internal flow paths and guide parameterisation. Simulations for 31 catchments were compared with output from two established models. The additional process information in the new model structure resulted in an improved or equalled performance in most catchment, with an increase in overall average performance criteria. This was attributed to the tailored model structure that more closely reflects the dominant hydrological processes in Irish catchments. The proportion of flow through groundwater or 'quick' flow paths varies considerably depending on catchment settings, with examples of groundwater dominated and 'flashy' catchments included in the study. In contrast to earlier studies, results showed interflow, as opposed to overland flow, as the dominant flow path in Irish catchments. This new

  5. Improving River Flow Predictions from the NOAA NCRFC Forecasting Model by Incorporating Satellite Observations (United States)

    Tuttle, S. E.; Jacobs, J. M.; Restrepo, P. J.; Deweese, M. M.; Connelly, B.; Buan, S.


    The NOAA National Weather Service North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) is responsible for issuing river flow forecasts for parts of the Upper Mississippi, Great Lakes, and Hudson Bay drainages, including the Red River of the North basin (RRB). The NCRFC uses an operational hydrologic modeling infrastructure called the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) for its operational forecasts, which currently links the SNOW-17 snow accumulation and ablation model, to the Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) rainfall-runoff model, to a number of hydrologic and hydraulic flow routing models. The operational model is lumped and requires only area-averaged precipitation and air temperature as inputs. NCRFC forecasters use observational data of hydrological state variables as a source of supplemental information during forecasting, and can use professional judgment to modify the model states in real time. In a few recent years (e.g. 2009, 2013), the RRB exhibited unexpected anomalous hydrologic behavior, resulting in overestimation of peak flood discharge by up to 70% and highlighting the need for observations with high temporal and spatial coverage. Unfortunately, observations of hydrological states (e.g. soil moisture, snow water equivalent (SWE)) are relatively scarce in the RRB. Satellite remote sensing can fill this need. We use Minnesota's Buffalo River watershed within the RRB as a test case and update the operational CHPS model using modifications based on satellite observations, including AMSR-E SWE and SMOS soil moisture estimates. We evaluate the added forecasting skill of the satellite-enhanced model compared to measured streamflow using hindcasts from 2010-2013.

  6. A 30m resolution hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous United States. (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.; Johnson, K.; Wing, O.


    In this paper we describe the development and validation of a 30m resolution hydrodynamic model covering the entire conterminous United States. The model can be used to simulate inundation and water depths resulting from either return period flows (so equivalent to FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps), hindcasts of historic events or forecasts of future river flow from a rainfall-runoff or land surface model. As topographic data the model uses the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset or NED, and return period flows are generated using a regional flood frequency analysis methodology (Smith et al., 2015. Worldwide flood frequency estimation. Water Resources Research, 51, 539-553). Flood defences nationwide are represented using data from the US Army Corps of Engineers. Using these data flows are simulated using an explicit and highly efficient finite difference solution of the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations identical to that implemented in the LISFLOOD-FP model. Even with this efficient numerical solution a simulation at this resolution over a whole continent is a huge undertaking, and a variety of High Performance Computing technologies therefore need to be employed to make these simulations possible. The size of the output datasets is also challenging, and to solve this we use the GIS and graphical display functions of Google Earth Engine to facilitate easy visualisation and interrogation of the results. The model is validated against the return period flood extents contained in FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps and real flood event data from the Texas 2015 flood event which was hindcast using the model. Finally, we present an application of the model to the Upper Mississippi river basin where simulations both with and without flood defences are used to determine floodplain areas benefitting from protection in order to quantify the benefits of flood defence spending.

  7. Assessing the impacts of agricultural change on soil erosion over the last century: a multi-model ensemble approach (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Smith, Hugh; Sangster, Heather; Riley, Mark; Chiverrell, Richard; Boyle, John


    Soil erosion models (SEMs) are valuable tools for understanding the links between past agricultural practices and soil erosion. Use of SEMs allows assessment of impacts from agricultural change over timescales that exceed instrumental records but correspond to periods for which considerable land use and climate information are available. Here, we develop a modelling framework to investigate the potential impacts of changes in agricultural practices and climate on soil erosion and sediment transport over the last 100 years in six lake catchments in Britain spanning upland and lowland environments. The modelling platform comprises a multi-model ensemble of derivatives of the Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) and RUSLE models. Simulation of change in land use/land cover (LULC), drainage features, crop rotation and livestock grazing are accounted for by reconstructing LULC maps from 1888 to 2007. Reconstructions of climatic conditions combine multiple records using regression and artificial neural network techniques to derive long-term daily precipitation and temperature series from 1880 to present. The modelling platform uses a grid-based modelling approach to handle the spatial distribution and heterogeneity in LULC, soil and topographic information. For each soil type, a database of physical parameters was created by combining information from the literature, LandIS soil database and pedotransfer functions. At each grid cell, a rainfall-Runoff (RR) model based on saturation excess runoff generation mechanisms provides daily soil moisture content. Furthermore, the modelling platform encompasses a crop cover model (CC) based on the Heat Unit approach developed to simulate daily Leaf Area Index for each crop type. Both the RR and CC models are used to update the canopy and ground cover parameters. In the absence of long-term river monitoring data, lake sediment records are used to compare the multi-model simulations thus creating a baseline from which to project impacts from

  8. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network (United States)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.


    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  9. Performance and complementarity of two systemic models (reservoir and neural networks) used to simulate spring discharge and piezometry for a karst aquifer (United States)

    Kong-A-Siou, Line; Fleury, Perrine; Johannet, Anne; Borrell Estupina, Valérie; Pistre, Séverin; Dörfliger, Nathalie


    Karst aquifers can provide previously untapped freshwater resources and have thus generated considerable interest among stakeholders involved in the water supply sector. Here we compare the capacity of two systemic models to simulate the discharge and piezometry of a karst aquifer. Systemic models have the advantage of allowing the study of heterogeneous, complex karst systems without relying on extensive geographical and meteorological datasets. The effectiveness and complementarity of the two models are evaluated for a range of hydrologic conditions and for three methods to estimate evapotranspiration (Monteith, a priori ET, and effective rainfall). The first model is a reservoir model (referred to as VENSIM, after the software used), which is designed with just one reservoir so as to be as parsimonious as possible. The second model is a neural network (NN) model. The models are designed to simulate the rainfall-runoff and rainfall-water level relations in a karst conduit. The Lez aquifer, a karst aquifer located near the city of Montpellier in southern France and a critical water resource, was chosen to compare the two models. Simulated discharge and water level were compared after completing model design and calibration. The results suggest that the NN model is more effective at incorporating the nonlinearity of the karst spring for extreme events (extreme low and high water levels), whereas VENSIM provides a better representation of intermediate-amplitude water level fluctuations. VENSIM is sensitive to the method used to estimate evapotranspiration, whereas the NN model is not. Given that the NN model performs better for extreme events, it is better for operational applications (predicting floods or determining water pumping height). VENSIM, on the other hand, seems more appropriate for representing the hydrologic state of the basin during intermediate periods, when several effects are at work: rain, evapotranspiration, development of vegetation, etc. A

  10. Testing of a conceptualisation of catchment scale surface soil moisture in a hydrologic model (United States)

    Komma, J.; Parajka, J.; Naeimi, V.; Blöschl, G.; Wagner, W.


    In this study the simulated surface soil moisture of a dual layer conceptual hydrologic model is tested against ERS scatterometer top soil moisture observations. The study catchment at the Kamp river with a size of 1550 km² is located in north-eastern Austria. The hydrologic simulations in this study are based on a well calibrated hydrologic model. The model consists of a spatially distributed soil moisture accounting scheme and a flood routing component. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the model are 1 x 1 km² and 15 minutes. The soil moisture accounting scheme simulates the mean moisture state over the entire vertical soil column. To get additional information about moisture states in a thin surface soil layer from the continuous rainfall-runoff model, the soil moisture accounting scheme is extended by a thin skin soil storage sitting at the top of the main soil reservoir. The skin soil storage is filled by rain and snow melt. The skin soil reservoir and the main soil reservoir are connected by a bidirectional moisture flux which is assumed to be a linear function of the vertical soil moisture gradient. The calibration of the additional dual layer component is based on hydrologic reasoning and the incorporation of measured soil water contents close to the study catchment. The comparison of the simulated surface soil moisture with the ERS scatterometer top soil moisture observations is performed in the period 1993-2005. On average, about 3 scatterometer images per month with a mean spatial coverage of about 82% are available at the Kamp catchment. The correlation between the catchment mean values of the two top soil moisture estimates changes with the season. The differences tend to be smaller due the summer month from July to October. The results indicate a good agreement between the modelled and remote sensed spatial moisture patterns in the study area.

  11. Modeling transport of nutrients & sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under climate change (United States)

    Riverson, John; Coats, Robert; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Dettinger, Mike; Reuter, John; Sahoo, Goloka; Schladow, Geoffrey


    The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.

  12. Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation (United States)

    Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando


    . 40 years of records. This paper investigates the capacity of the three hydrological models to project the impacts of climate change scenarios. It is proposed a general testing framework which combine the use of the existing information through an adapted form of DSST with the approach proposed by Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) adapted to assess statistical properties of flows useful in the context of water allocation. To assess the model we use robustness criteria based on a Log Nash-Sutcliffe, BIAS on cummulative volumes and relative changes based on Q50/Q90 estimated from the duration curve. The three conceptual rainfall-runoff models yielded different results per sub-catchments. A relation was found between robustness criteria and changes in mean rainfall and changes in mean potential evapotranspiration. Biases are greatly affected by changes in precipitation, especially when the climate scenarios involve changes in precipitation volume beyond the range used for calibration. Using the combine approach we were able to classify the modelling tools per sub-catchments and create an ensemble of best models to project the impacts of climate variability for the catchments of 10 main rivers in Flanders. Thus, managers could understand better the usability of the modelling tools and the credibility of its outputs for water allocation applications. References Refsgaard, J.C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T.A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D.P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J.E., Sonnenborg, T.O., Trolle, D., Willems, P., Christensen, J.H., 2014. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Clim. Change. Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P., 2012. Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall - runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes , in a climate changing context. J. Hydrol. 415, 425-434.

  13. Groundwater flow and solute transport modelling from within R: Development of the RMODFLOW and RMT3DMS packages. (United States)

    Rogiers, Bart


    Since a few years, an increasing number of contributed R packages is becoming available, in the field of hydrology. Hydrological time series analysis packages, lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, weather generators, and different calibration and uncertainty estimation methods are all available. Also a few packages are available for solving partial differential equations. Subsurface hydrological modelling is however still seldomly performed in R, or with codes interfaced with R, despite the fact that excellent geostatistical packages, model calibration/inversion options and state-of-the-art visualization libraries are available. Moreover, other popular scientific programming languages like matlab and python have packages for pre- and post-processing files of MODFLOW (Harbaugh 2005) and MT3DMS (Zheng 2010) models. To fill this gap, we present here the development versions of the RMODFLOW and RMT3DMS packages, which allow pre- and post-processing MODFLOW and MT3DMS input and output files from within R. File reading and writing functions are currently available for different packages, and plotting functions are foreseen making use of the ggplot2 package (plotting system based on the grammar of graphics; Wickham 2009). The S3 generic-function object oriented programming style is used for this. An example is provided, making modifications to an existing model, and visualization of the model output. References Harbaugh, A. (2005). MODFLOW-2005: The US Geological Survey Modular Ground-water Model--the Ground-water Flow Process, U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A16 (p. 253). Wickham, H. (2009). ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis. Springer New York, 2009. Zheng, C. (2010). MT3DMS v5.3, a modular three-dimensional multispecies transport model for simulation of advection, dispersion and chemical reactions of contaminants in groundwater systems. Supplemental User's Guide. (p. 56).

  14. Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hahn


    Full Text Available Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

  15. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods (United States)

    Castaings, W.; Dartus, D.; Le Dimet, F.-X.; Saulnier, G.-M.


    Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised) with respect to model inputs. In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations) but didactic application case. It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run) and the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation. For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers) is adopted. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  16. Estimating catchment-scale groundwater dynamics from recession analysis - enhanced constraining of hydrological models (United States)

    Skaugen, Thomas; Mengistu, Zelalem


    In this study, we propose a new formulation of subsurface water storage dynamics for use in rainfall-runoff models. Under the assumption of a strong relationship between storage and runoff, the temporal distribution of catchment-scale storage is considered to have the same shape as the distribution of observed recessions (measured as the difference between the log of runoff values). The mean subsurface storage is estimated as the storage at steady state, where moisture input equals the mean annual runoff. An important contribution of the new formulation is that its parameters are derived directly from observed recession data and the mean annual runoff. The parameters are hence estimated prior to model calibration against runoff. The new storage routine is implemented in the parameter parsimonious distance distribution dynamics (DDD) model and has been tested for 73 catchments in Norway of varying size, mean elevation and landscape type. Runoff simulations for the 73 catchments from two model structures (DDD with calibrated subsurface storage and DDD with the new estimated subsurface storage) were compared. Little loss in precision of runoff simulations was found using the new estimated storage routine. For the 73 catchments, an average of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion of 0.73 was obtained using the new estimated storage routine compared with 0.75 using calibrated storage routine. The average Kling-Gupta efficiency criterion was 0.80 and 0.81 for the new and old storage routine, respectively. Runoff recessions are more realistically modelled using the new approach since the root mean square error between the mean of observed and simulated recession characteristics was reduced by almost 50 % using the new storage routine. The parameters of the proposed storage routine are found to be significantly correlated to catchment characteristics, which is potentially useful for predictions in ungauged basins.

  17. Improved Algorithm of SCS-CN Model Parameters in Typical Inland River Basin in Central Asia (United States)

    Wang, Jin J.; Ding, Jian L.; Zhang, Zhe; Chen, Wen Q.


    Rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important factor for hydrological structures, social and economic development on the background of global warmer, especially in arid regions. The aim of this paper is find the suitable method to simulate the runoff in arid area. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) is the most popular and widely applied model for direct runoff estimation. In this paper, we will focus on Wen-quan Basin in source regions of Boertala River. It is a typical valley of inland in Central Asia. First time to use the 16m resolution remote sensing image about high-definition earth observation satellite “Gaofen-1” to provide a high degree accuracy data for land use classification determine the curve number. Use surface temperature/vegetation index (TS/VI) construct 2D scatter plot combine with the soil moisture absorption balance principle calculate the moisture-holding capacity of soil. Using original and parameter algorithm improved SCS-CN model respectively to simulation the runoff. The simulation results show that the improved model is better than original model. Both of them in calibration and validation periods Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.79, 0.71 and 0.66,038. And relative error were3%, 12% and 17%, 27%. It shows that the simulation accuracy should be further improved and using remote sensing information technology to improve the basic geographic data for the hydrological model has the following advantages: 1) Remote sensing data having a planar characteristic, comprehensive and representative. 2) To get around the bottleneck about lack of data, provide reference to simulation the runoff in similar basin conditions and data-lacking regions.

  18. Exploring calibration strategies of the SEDD model in two olive orchard catchments (United States)

    Burguet, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.; Gómez, José Alfonso


    To optimize soil conservation strategies in catchments, it is required an accurate diagnosis of the areas contributing to soil erosion by using models such as SEDD (Sediment Delivery Distributed model). In this study, different calibration strategies of the SEDD model were explored to adapt its use in two olive catchments with different environmental features and managements. A data series of rainfall-runoff-sediment load, collected in the catchments for 6 years was used: i) to evaluate calibration strategies for different management and flow conditions through the analysis of the C and R factors, and ii) to describe the temporal patterns of sediment delivery ratio (SDR) at the event and annual scales. Different results and calibration approaches were derived from contrasting soil features and sediment dynamics in the catchments. A good model performance with simple calibration procedure was obtained for the catchment with clayey soil and a very active gully, whereas the model parameterisation was adapted to event features in the catchment with sandy soil where the importance of concentrated flow was minor. Mean annual values of SDR at the watershed scale (SDRw) were 110.1% for the catchment with clayey soil and 64.1% for that with sandy soils. SDRw values greater than 100% occurred in very humid years with precipitations 30% above the mean annual values. At the event scale, similar behaviours of SDR were observed. SDR > 100% were associated with the gully exporting sediments out from the clayey catchment, whereas this was done by rills and an ephemeral gully in the sandy catchment.

  19. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Castaings


    Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.

    In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.

    It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.

    For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.

    Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  20. Multi-Sensor Model-Data Assimilation for Improved Modeling of Savanna Carbon and Water Budgets (United States)

    Barrett, D. J.; Renzullo, L. J.; Guerschman, J.; Hill, M. J.


    reflectances in optical wavebands. Results show that the multiple constraints approach is effective in identifying and reducing the influence of bias on the resultant analysis that occurs when only single observation data sets are used. Reductions in error and bias lead to improved prognoses of soil profile water store and forecasts of rainfall runoff. The development and routine application of model-data assimilation methods in savanna biophysical modeling will improve performance of ecosystem biophysical models, assist with the design of filed campaigns to maximize uncertainty reduction, fill gaps in knowledge of the carbon and water dynamics of savannas and provide better information on which to base decision making to solve natural resource management problems in this biome.

  1. Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event. (United States)

    Knebl, M R; Yang, Z-L; Hutchison, K; Maidment, D R


    This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.

  2. Large scale modelling of catastrophic floods in Italy (United States)

    Azemar, Frédéric; Nicótina, Ludovico; Sassi, Maximiliano; Savina, Maurizio; Hilberts, Arno


    The RMS European Flood HD model® is a suite of country scale flood catastrophe models covering 13 countries throughout continental Europe and the UK. The models are developed with the goal of supporting risk assessment analyses for the insurance industry. Within this framework RMS is developing a hydrologic and inundation model for Italy. The model aims at reproducing the hydrologic and hydraulic properties across the domain through a modeling chain. A semi-distributed hydrologic model that allows capturing the spatial variability of the runoff formation processes is coupled with a one-dimensional river routing algorithm and a two-dimensional (depth averaged) inundation model. This model setup allows capturing the flood risk from both pluvial (overland flow) and fluvial flooding. Here we describe the calibration and validation methodologies for this modelling suite applied to the Italian river basins. The variability that characterizes the domain (in terms of meteorology, topography and hydrologic regimes) requires a modeling approach able to represent a broad range of meteo-hydrologic regimes. The calibration of the rainfall-runoff and river routing models is performed by means of a genetic algorithm that identifies the set of best performing parameters within the search space over the last 50 years. We first establish the quality of the calibration parameters on the full hydrologic balance and on individual discharge peaks by comparing extreme statistics to observations over the calibration period on several stations. The model is then used to analyze the major floods in the country; we discuss the different meteorological setup leading to the historical events and the physical mechanisms that induced these floods. We can thus assess the performance of RMS' hydrological model in view of the physical mechanisms leading to flood and highlight the main controls on flood risk modelling throughout the country. The model's ability to accurately simulate antecedent

  3. Hydrological Simulation of Flood Events At Large Basins Using Distributed Modelling (United States)

    Vélez, J.; Vélez, I.; Puricelli, M.; Francés, F.

    Recent advances in technology allows to the scientist community advance in new pro- cedures in order to reduce the risk associated to flood events. A conceptual distributed model has been implemented to simulate the hydrological processes involved during floods. The model has been named TETIS. The basin is divided into rectangular cells, all of them connected according to the network drainage. The rainfall-runoff process is modelled using four linked tanks at each cell with different outflow relationships at each tank, which represent the ET, direct runoff, interflow and base flow, respectively. The routing along the channel network has been proposed using basin geomorpho- logic characteristics coupled to the cinematic wave procedure. The vertical movement along the cell is proposed using simple relationships based on soil properties as field capacity and the saturated hydraulic conductivities, which were previously obtained using land use, litology, edaphology and basin properties maps. The different vertical proccesses along the cell included are: capillar storage, infiltration, percolation and underground losses. Finally, snowmelting and reservoir routing has been included. TETIS has been implemented in the flood warning system of the Tagus River, with a basin of 59 200 km2. The time discretization of the input data is 15 minutes, and the cell size is 500x500 m. The basic parameter maps were estimated for the entire basin, and a calibration and validation processes were performed using some recorded events in the upper part of the basin. Calibration confirmed the initial parameter estimation. Additionally, the validation in time and space showed the robustness of these types of models

  4. Modeling tools for an Integrated River-Delta-Sea system investigation: the Pan-European Research Infrastructure DANUBIUS-RI philosophy (United States)

    Umgiesser, Georg; Bellafiore, Debora; De Pascalis, Francesca; Icke, Joost; Stanica, Adrian


    The DANUBIUS Research Infrastructure (DANUBIUS-RI) is a new initiative to address the challenges and opportunities of research on large river- sea (RS) systems. DANUBIUS-RI is a distributed pan-European RI that will provide a platform for interdisciplinary research. It will deal with RS investigation through facilities and expertise from a large number of European institutions becoming a 'one-stop shop' for knowledge exchange in managing RS systems, ranging from freshwater to marine research. Globally, RS systems are complex and dynamic, with huge environmental, social and economic value. They are poorly understood but under increasing pressure through pollution, hydraulic engineering, water supply, energy, flood control and erosion. RS systems in Europe are among the most impacted globally, after centuries of industrialisation, urbanisation and agricultural intensification. Improved understanding is essential to avoid irreversible degradation and for restoration. DANUBIUS-RI will provide, among a number of other facilities concerning observations, analyses, impacts' evaluation, a modeling node that will provide integrated up-to-date tools, at locations of high scientific importance and opportunity, covering the RS systems - from source (upper parts of rivers - mountain lakes) to the transition with coastal seas. Modeling will be one of the major services provided by DANUBIUS-RI, relying on the inputs from the whole RI. RS systems are challenging from a modelling point of view, because of the complex morphology and the wide temporal and spatial range of processes occurring. Scale interaction plays a central role, considering the different hydro-eco-morphological processes on the large (basin) and small (local, coast, rivers, lagoons) scale. Currently, different model applications are made for the different geographical domains, and also for subsets of the processes. For instance there are separate models for rainfall runoff in the catchment, a sewer model for the

  5. Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau


    Full Text Available Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE, used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR. For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i to select the parameter(s which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

  6. Itzï (version 17.1): an open-source, distributed GIS model for dynamic flood simulation (United States)

    Guillaume Courty, Laurent; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Bates, Paul David


    Worldwide, floods are acknowledged as one of the most destructive hazards. In human-dominated environments, their negative impacts are ascribed not only to the increase in frequency and intensity of floods but also to a strong feedback between the hydrological cycle and anthropogenic development. In order to advance a more comprehensive understanding of this complex interaction, this paper presents the development of a new open-source tool named Itzï that enables the 2-D numerical modelling of rainfall-runoff processes and surface flows integrated with the open-source geographic information system (GIS) software known as GRASS. Therefore, it takes advantage of the ability given by GIS environments to handle datasets with variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the presented numerical tool can handle datasets from different sources with varied spatial resolutions, facilitating the preparation and management of input and forcing data. This ability reduces the preprocessing time usually required by other models. Itzï uses a simplified form of the shallow water equations, the damped partial inertia equation, for the resolution of surface flows, and the Green-Ampt model for the infiltration. The source code is now publicly available online, along with complete documentation. The numerical model is verified against three different tests cases: firstly, a comparison with an analytic solution of the shallow water equations is introduced; secondly, a hypothetical flooding event in an urban area is implemented, where results are compared to those from an established model using a similar approach; and lastly, the reproduction of a real inundation event that occurred in the city of Kingston upon Hull, UK, in June 2007, is presented. The numerical approach proved its ability at reproducing the analytic and synthetic test cases. Moreover, simulation results of the real flood event showed its suitability at identifying areas affected by flooding

  7. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.


    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity

  8. A Partial Contributing Area Model for Linking Rainfall Simulation Data With Hydrographs of a Small Arid Watershed (United States)

    Ben-Asher, J.; Humborg, G.


    Four years of runoff measurement (29 events) in Kangussano, Mali, were analyzed on the basis of the partial area contribution concept. The study region is semiarid and the use of runoff water to satisfy crop of high importance. A first-order basin which included two flow channels draining an area of 1.14 106 ha (1.14 km2) was used for this purpose. The objective of this study was to develop and test a conceptual model to predict runoff on natural catchments of about this size. The model assumes that a basin is composed of a large number of pixels (satellite picture elements). Each pixel covers an area of 900 m2. The hydraulic properties of a representative pixel are determined by runoff simulation experiments. The model calculates the number of runoff generating pixels at a given time and rain depth. The areal runoff is a product of these two factors. Analysis of satellite images from LANDSAT and SPOT indicated similarities of soil cover complexes between the study area and an experimental area in Upper Volta. Results of runoff simulation from this area were adapted for the study area and used for the calculations. A good agreement between predicted and measured contributing area was obtained when the number of runoff generating pixels was 80 pixels/ram effective rain. Predicted and measured hydrographs were also in good agreement. It was therefore concluded that the model can satisfactorily predict actual hydrographs from data generated by rainfall-runoff simulators. Dividing the watershed to surface elements of pixel's size makes the model capable of linking remote sensing information with simulation data in order to predict areal runoff.

  9. Progress on the calibration of channel geometry and friction parameters of the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using time series of SAR flood images (United States)

    Wood, M.; Neal, J. C.; Hostache, R.; Corato, G.; Bates, P. D.; Chini, M.; Giustarini, L.; Matgen, P.; Wagener, T.


    The objective of this work is to calibrate channel depth and roughness parameters of the LISFLOOD-FP Sub-Grid 2D hydraulic model using SAR image-derived flood extent maps. The aim is to reduce uncertainty in flood model predictions for those rivers where channel geometry is unknown and/or cannot be easily measured. In particular we consider the effectiveness of using real SAR data for calibration and whether the number and timings of SAR acquisitions is of benefit to the final result. Terrain data are processed from 2m LiDAR images and inflows to the model are taken from gauged data. As a test case we applied the method to the River Severn between Worcester and Tewkesbury. We firstly applied the automatic flood mapping algorithm of Giustarini[1] et al. (2013) to ENVISAT ASAR (wide swath mode) flood images; generating a series of flood maps. We then created an ensemble of flood extent maps with the hydraulic model (each model representing a unique parameter set). Where there is a favourable comparison between the modelled flood map and the SAR obtained flood map we may suggest an optimal parameter set. Applying the method to a sequence of SAR acquisitions provides insight into the advantages, disadvantages and limitations of using series of acquired images. To complete the investigation we simultaneously explore parameter 'identifiabilty' within a sequence of available satellite observations by adopting the DYNIA method proposed by Wagener[2] et al. (2003). We show where we might most easily detect the depth and roughness parameters within the SAR acquisition sequence. [1] Giustarini. 2013. 'A Change Detection Approach to Flood Mapping in Urban Areas Using TerraSAR-X'. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 51, no. 4. [2] Wagener. 2003. 'Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling: Dynamic identifiability analysis'. Hydrol. Process. 17, 455-476.

  10. Modelling impacts of climate change on water resources in ungauged and data-scarce watersheds. Application to the Siurana catchment (NE Spain). (United States)

    Candela, Lucila; Tamoh, Karim; Olivares, Gonzalo; Gomez, Manuel


    Gaining knowledge on potential climate change impacts on water resources is a complex process which depends on numerical models capable of describing these processes in quantitative terms. Under limited data or ungauged basin conditions, which constrain the modelling approach, a physically based coherent methodological approach is required. The traditional approach to assess flow regime and groundwater recharge impacts, based on coupling general atmosphere-ocean circulation models (GCM) and hydrologic models, has been investigated in the Siurana ungauged catchment (NE Spain). The future A2 (medium-high) and B1 (medium-low) greenhouse gas scenarios and time slices 2013-2037 (2025) and 2038-2062 (2050), developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), have been selected. For scenario simulations, coupled GCM ECHAM5 scenarios, stochastically downscaled outputs and surface-subsurface modelling to simulate changes in water resources were applied to the catchment. Flow regime analysis was assessed by HEC-HMS, a physically based hydrologic model to assess rainfall-runoff in a catchment, while recharge was estimated with VisualBALAN, a distributed model for natural recharge estimation. Simulations show that the projected climate change at the catchment will affect the entire hydrological system with a maximum of 56% reduction of water resources. While subtle changes are observed for the 2025 time slice, the temperature and precipitation forecast for 2050 shows a maximum increase of 2.2 °C and a decreased precipitation volume of 11.3% in relation to historical values. Regarding historical values, runoff output shows a maximum 20% decrease, and 18% decrease of natural recharge with a certain delay in relation to runoff and rainfall data. According to the results, the most important parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in climatic parameters, but they are highly dependent on soil moisture conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B

  11. Monitoring and modelling of landslide and debris flow impact on transport and building infrasructure in the Carpathians (United States)

    Ivanik, Olena; Shevchuk, Viktor; Yahno, Evgen


    Mechanisms and factors of formation of landslide and debris flow processes are examined in terms of model objects in the Carpathians. The study area is within Eastern Carpathians and Transcarpathian depression (Tisa river basin). There were investigated more than 220 stabilized and active landslides. The analysis of water-gravitational processes in this region with complex heterogeneous geological structure confirmed the priority nature of occurrence of structural landslides in rheologically different geological environments, and made it possible to create a new classification of structural landslides and conditions of their formation with the decisive influence of destructive zones. This classification is the basis for constructing geological, physical and mathematical models of landslide slopes, and subsequent modeling of the landslide hazard based on the determination of the stress-strain state of slopes. Under the proposed mathematical model, the examined phenomenon is described as thermoelastic-plastic equilibrium of the isotropic matrix under effect of applied mass (gravitational field of the Earth) and surface efforts, inhomogeneous stationary temperature field. In addition, it is assumed that the Young modulus at each point of the matrix depends on the water saturation. Debris and mudflows in the Carpathians have a stage character, non-stationary and avalanche movements. The territory is prone to be affected by debris and mudflows, due to the geological, geomorphological and climatic conditions. Therefore the main conditions of the mudflow formation are as follows: the presence of the rock destruction products which could be a solid phase of debris mudflow; presence of the enough quantity of the rainfall runoff for the unconsolidated material removal; ruggedness of relief that provides simultaneous movement of the big values of the water-soil mass with the big velocities. The algorithm calculating the mudflow impact on infrastructure objects in Carpathians

  12. How reliable are satellite precipitation estimates for driving hydrological models: a verification study over the Mediterranean area (United States)

    Camici, Stefania; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca


    , TMPA 3B42-RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN and a new soil moisture-derived rainfall datasets obtained through the application of SM2RAIN algorithm (Brocca et al., 2014) to ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product are used in the analysis. The performances obtained with SRPs are compared with those obtained by using ground data during the 6-year period from 2010 to 2015. In addition, the performance obtained by an integration of the above mentioned SRPs is also investigated to see whether merged rainfall observations are able to improve flood simulation. Preliminary analysis were also carried out by using the IMERG early run product of GPM mission. The results highlight that SRPs should be used with caution for rainfall-runoff modelling in the Mediterranean region. Bias correction and model recalibration are necessary steps, even though not always sufficient to achieve satisfactory performances. Indeed, some of the products provide unreliable outcomes, mainly in smaller basins (Journal of Geophysical Research, 119(9), 5128-5141, doi:10.1002/2014JD021489. Masseroni, D., Cislaghi, A., Camici, S., Massari, C., Brocca, L. (2017). A reliable rainfall-runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semiurbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy. Hydrology Research, in press, doi:10.2166/nh.2016.037.

  13. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert


    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

  14. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali


    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  15. A high resolution coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model (HiResFlood-UCI) for flash flood modeling (United States)

    Nguyen, Phu; Thorstensen, Andrea; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuolin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett; Koren, Victor; Cui, Zhengtao; Smith, Michael


    HiResFlood-UCI was developed by coupling the NWS's hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) with the hydraulic model (BreZo) for flash flood modeling at decameter resolutions. The coupled model uses HL-RDHM as a rainfall-runoff generator and replaces the routing scheme of HL-RDHM with the 2D hydraulic model (BreZo) in order to predict localized flood depths and velocities. A semi-automated technique of unstructured mesh generation was developed to cluster an adequate density of computational cells along river channels such that numerical errors are negligible compared with other sources of error, while ensuring that computational costs of the hydraulic model are kept to a bare minimum. HiResFlood-UCI was implemented for a watershed (ELDO2) in the DMIP2 experiment domain in Oklahoma. Using synthetic precipitation input, the model was tested for various components including HL-RDHM parameters (a priori versus calibrated), channel and floodplain Manning n values, DEM resolution (10 m versus 30 m) and computation mesh resolution (10 m+ versus 30 m+). Simulations with calibrated versus a priori parameters of HL-RDHM show that HiResFlood-UCI produces reasonable results with the a priori parameters from NWS. Sensitivities to hydraulic model resistance parameters, mesh resolution and DEM resolution are also identified, pointing to the importance of model calibration and validation for accurate prediction of localized flood intensities. HiResFlood-UCI performance was examined using 6 measured precipitation events as model input for model calibration and validation of the streamflow at the outlet. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) obtained ranges from 0.588 to 0.905. The model was also validated for the flooded map using USGS observed water level at an interior point. The predicted flood stage error is 0.82 m or less, based on a comparison to measured stage. Validation of stage and discharge predictions builds confidence in model predictions of flood extent and localized velocities

  16. Quantification and classification of hydro-meteorological flood controls in northeast Switzerland as a basis for robust impact modelling (United States)

    Keller, Luise; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf


    Flood events are generated and shaped by different hydro-meteorological processes. Taking these drivers into account is essential for understanding flood generation and for developing robust hydrological models. We call a hydrological model robust if it is able to reproduce different flood types with different drivers at the same quality. Such models are a prerequisite for assessing climate change impact as they minimize bias associated with a potential change in frequency of projected flood types. For the same reason, identification of the key hydro-meteorological processes is crucial to enable a suitable downscaling of meteorological parameters. To gain understanding of the main hydro-meteorological processes associated with floods in a mesoscale alpine catchment (Thur River, 1700 km2), we analyse all events exceeding a 2-year flood over the past 50 years. Resulting 47 events are temporally delineated based on an adapted constant-k approach (Blume et al., 2007) using hourly runoff data. Each flood event is then characterized based on a variety of hydro-meteorological parameters and indices descriptive of catchment distributed (pre-) event conditions based on daily meteorological data. This comprehensive data set is used to classify the events based on hydro-meteorological parameters only and to derive typical flood-generating "storylines". Changes in these storylines over the past 50 years are discussed. Furthermore, the importance of each hydro-meteorological parameter is quantified which in turn might help to assess uncertainties associated with climate change impact studies. References Blume, T., Zehe, E., and Bronstert, A.: Rainfall - runoff response, event-based runoff coefficients and hydrograph separation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52, 843-862, doi:10.1623/hysj.52.5.843, 2007.

  17. Science-Grade Observing Systems as Process Observatories: Mapping and Understanding Nonlinearity and Multiscale Memory with Models and Observations (United States)

    Barros, A. P.; Wilson, A. M.; Miller, D. K.; Tao, J.; Genereux, D. P.; Prat, O.; Petersen, W. A.; Brunsell, N. A.; Petters, M. D.; Duan, Y.


    Using the planet as a study domain and collecting observations over unprecedented ranges of spatial and temporal scales, NASA's EOS (Earth Observing System) program was an agent of transformational change in Earth Sciences over the last thirty years. The remarkable space-time organization and variability of atmospheric and terrestrial moist processes that emerged from the analysis of comprehensive satellite observations provided much impetus to expand the scope of land-atmosphere interaction studies in Hydrology and Hydrometeorology. Consequently, input and output terms in the mass and energy balance equations evolved from being treated as fluxes that can be used as boundary conditions, or forcing, to being viewed as dynamic processes of a coupled system interacting at multiple scales. Measurements of states or fluxes are most useful if together they map, reveal and/or constrain the underlying physical processes and their interactions. This can only be accomplished through an integrated observing system designed to capture the coupled physics, including nonlinear feedbacks and tipping points. Here, we first review and synthesize lessons learned from hydrometeorology studies in the Southern Appalachians and in the Southern Great Plains using both ground-based and satellite observations, physical models and data-assimilation systems. We will specifically focus on mapping and understanding nonlinearity and multiscale memory of rainfall-runoff processes in mountainous regions. It will be shown that beyond technical rigor, variety, quantity and duration of measurements, the utility of observing systems is determined by their interpretive value in the context of physical models to describe the linkages among different observations. Second, we propose a framework for designing science-grade and science-minded process-oriented integrated observing and modeling platforms for hydrometeorological studies.

  18. Pore water chemistry reveals gradients in mineral transformation across a model basaltic hillslope (United States)

    Pohlmann, Michael; Dontsova, Katerina; Root, Robert; Ruiz, Joaquin; Troch, Peter; Chorover, Jon


    The extent of weathering incongruency during soil formation from rock controls local carbon and nutrient cycling in ecosystems, as well as the evolution of hydrologic flow paths. Prior studies of basalt weathering, including those that have quantified the dynamics of well-mixed, bench-scale laboratory reactors or characterized the structure and integrated response of field systems, indicate a strong influence of system scale on weathering rate and trajectory. For example, integrated catchment response tends to produce lower weathering rates than do well mixed reactors, but the mechanisms underlying these disparities remain unclear. Here we present pore water geochemistry and physical sensor data gathered during two controlled rainfall-runoff events on a large-scale convergent model hillslope mantled with 1 m uniform depth of granular basaltic porous media. The dense sampler and sensor array (1488 samplers and sensors embedded in 330 m3 of basalt) showed that rainfall-induced dissolution of basaltic glass produced supersaturation of pore waters with respect to multiple secondary solids including allophane, gibbsite, ferrihydrite, birnessite and calcite. The spatial distribution of saturation state was heterogeneous, suggesting an accumulation of solutes leading to precipitation of secondary solids along hydrologic flow paths. Rapid dissolution of primary silicates was widespread throughout the entire hillslope, irrespective of up-gradient flowpath length. However, coherent spatial variations in solution chemistry and saturation indices were observed in depth profiles and between distinct topographic regions of the hillslope. Colloids (110-2000 nm) enriched in iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), and phosphorus (P) were mobile in soil pore waters.

  19. Blue and green infrastructures implementation to solve stormwater management issues in a new urban development project - a modelling approach (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel


    Concentrating buildings and socio-economic activities, urban areas are particularly vulnerable to hydrological risks. Modification in climate may intensify already existing issues concerning stormwater management (due to impervious area) and water supply (due to the increase of the population). In this context, water use efficiency and best water management practices are key-issues in the urban environment already stressed. Blue and green infrastructures are nature-based solutions that provide synergy of the blue and green systems to provide multifunctional solutions and multiple benefits: increased amenity, urban heat island improvement, biodiversity, reduced energy requirements... They are particularly efficient to reduce the potential impact of new and existing developments with respect to stormwater and/or water supply issues. The Multi-Hydro distributed rainfall-runoff model represents an adapted tool to manage the impacts of such infrastructures at the urban basin scale. It is a numerical platform that makes several models interact, each of them representing a specific portion of the water cycle in an urban environment: surface runoff and infiltration depending on a land use classification, sub-surface processes and sewer network drainage. Multi-Hydro is still being developed at the Ecole des Ponts (open access from to take into account the wide complexity of urban environments. The latest advancements have made possible the representation of several blue and green infrastructures (green roof, basin, swale). Applied in a new urban development project located in the Paris region, Multi-Hydro has been used to simulate the impact of blue and green infrastructures implementation. It was particularly focused on their ability to fulfil regulation rules established by local stormwater managers in order to connect the parcel to the sewer network. The results show that a combination of several blue and green

  20. Impact assessment of upstream flooding on extreme flood frequency analysis by incorporating a flood-inundation model for flood risk assessment (United States)

    Tanaka, Tomohiro; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Iachikawa, Yutaka; Yorozu, Kazuaki


    Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is fundamental for providing hazard probability of flood risk assessment as well as for determining design flood. It is often the case that mega cities are located along downstream reaches of a large river basin in many areas of all over the world, and their extreme flood frequencies are assumed to be highly affected by dam operation and river overflow of its upstream areas. In particular, when upstream areas are also protected by river dike system, historical discharge samples cannot represent the impact of upstream river overflow on downstream extreme flood frequencies because it rarely occurs. FFA without this consideration, especially in large river basins which include several potential floodplains, would lead to inappropriate assessment of flood risk. To deal with this issue, FFA needs to incorporate flood-inundation modelling of upstream areas; however, previous studies on FFA have focused on smaller watersheds and combined rainfall-runoff models. Therefore, this study examined the impact of river overflow and dam operation of upstream areas on downstream extreme flood frequencies through a case study of the Yodo River basin (7280 km2). To achieve FFA in a large river basin, this study combined a flood-inundation model of upstream Kyoto City area to a rainfall-based flood frequency model (RFFM) which accounts for the probability of spatial and temporal rainfall pattern over the river basin in a practical manner. The RFFM was validated with reproduced discharge samples of historical storm events and then applied to extreme flood frequency estimation. The application clarified that upstream river overflow causes much more drastic change of downstream flood frequencies beyond the design level than dam operation, which indicates that FFA for flood risk assessment needs to consider river overflow of its upstream areas otherwise flood risk of downstream areas will be overestimated. Furthermore, the scheme also produced the cumulative

  1. Ecosystem approach to water resources management using the MIKE 11 modeling system in the Strymonas River and Lake Kerkini. (United States)

    Doulgeris, Charalampos; Georgiou, Pantazis; Papadimos, Dimitris; Papamichail, Dimitris


    The ability to apply an ecosystem approach to the Strymonas River catchment was investigated using the MIKE 11 modeling system for the simulation of surface water. The Strymonas River catchment is shared mainly between Bulgaria and Greece. The river feeds the artificial Lake Kerkini, a significant wetland ecosystem, and further downstream it outflows to the Gulf of Strymonikos, whose estuary ecosystem is very important for fisheries, biodiversity and tourism. MIKE 11-NAM was used for the simulation of rainfall-runoff process in the Strymonas River catchment and MIKE 11-HD was used to simulate the unsteady flow of the Strymonas River and to apply management rules based on the water level of Lake Kerkini. Two water level management scenarios were investigated. The first scenario referred to the mean daily-observed water level of Lake Kerkini between 1986 and 2006, and the second scenario represented adjustments necessary to fulfill the lake's ecosystem requirements. Under the current water level management practices (Scenario 1), the Strymonas River-Lake Kerkini system has enough water to fulfill its Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in normal and wet years while a slight deficit is appeared in dry years; however, both Lake Kerkini and the Strymonas River estuary ecosystems are subject to pressures, since reduction of the forest area has been recorded. Applying the ecosystem approach (Scenario 2), the protection of the riparian forest of Lake Kerkini is achieved while in normal and wet years the IWR are fulfilled and the deficit of the IWR is increased in dry years. Compared to Scenario 1, the pressure of the Strymonas River estuary ecosystem is slightly increased. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall data at different spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell


    model is explored. The need to recalibrate the model for use with rainfall data of a given resolution, particularly for periods of convective rain, is highlighted. Again, best performance is obtained using lower resolution rainfall data. This is interpreted as evidence for the need to improve the distributed model structure to make better use of the higher resolution information on rainfall and topographic controls on runoff. Degrading the resolution of rainfall data, model or both to achieve the smoothing apparently needed is not seen as wholly appropriate. Keywords: rainfall, runoff, sensitivity, scale, model, flood

  3. Effect of spatial forcing data and landscape heterogeneity on performance and consistency of model structures (United States)

    Euser, Tanja; Winsemius, Hessel; Hrachowitz, Markus; Savenije, Hubert


    One of the main questions in hydrological modelling is how to design conceptual rainfall-runoff models with a higher degree of realism. It is expected that if models have a higher degree of realism, their predictive power will increase. One frequently discussed option is the use of more spatial information, which is increasingly available. Information with spatial variability can be found for example for forcing data, elevation, land use, etc. The abundance of spatially variable data requires the modeller to carefully select which data add realism to the model and which data only add complexity. An additional complication is further that the spatial detail required is a function of the time scales of the forcing data and the required output. The amount of spatially variable data available can guide the choice of an adequate distribution level of a model. As it is often difficult to determine the most suitable level of distribution for a certain catchment, this study systematically evaluates the value of incorporating distributed forcing data and distributed model structures in a stepwise approach for the Ourthe catchment (Belgium). The distribution of the model structures is based on landscape heterogeneity, using both elevation data and land use data. Eight different model configurations are tested: a lumped and a distributed model structure, each with lumped and stepwise distributed fluxes and stocks. To stepwise distribute the fluxes and stocks, the distributed forcing data is sequentially kept distributed for each reservoir of the model. To compare the degree of realism of the different configurations, both model performance and consistency are compared. Performance describes the ability of a model configuration to mimic a specific part of the hydrological behaviour in a specific catchment. Consistency describes the ability of a model configuration to adequately reproduce several hydrological signatures simultaneously. FARM (Framework to Assess the Realism of

  4. Trade-off Assessment of Simplified Routing Models for Short-Term Hydropower Reservoir Optimization (United States)

    Issao Kuwajima, Julio; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvardo Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto


    Short-term reservoir optimization, also referred to as model predictive control, integrates model-based forecasts and optimization algorithms to meet multiple management objectives such as water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. It is a valuable decision support tool to handle water-stress conditions or flooding events, and supports decision makers to minimize their impact. If the reservoir management includes downstream control, for example for mitigation flood damages in inundation areas downstream of the operated dam, the flow routing between the dam and the downstream inundation area is of major importance. The unsteady open channel flow in river reaches can be described by the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. However, owing to the mathematical complexity of those equations, some simplifications may be required to speed up the computation within the optimization procedure. Another strategy to limit the model runtime is a schematization on a course computational grid. In particular the last measure can introduce significant numerical diffusion into the solution. This is a major drawback, in particular if the reservoir release has steep gradients which we often find in hydropower reservoirs. In this work, four different routing models are assessed concerning their implementation in the predictive control of the Três Marias Reservoir located at the Upper River São Francisco in Brazil: i) a fully dynamic model using the software package SOBEK; ii) a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model with Muskingum-Cunge routing for the flow reaches of interest, the MGB-IPH (Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas); iii) a reservoir routing approach; and iv) a diffusive wave model. The last two models are implemented in the RTC-Tool toolbox. The overall model accuracy between the simplified models in RTC-Tools (iii, iv) and the more sophisticated SOBEK model (i) are

  5. Incorporation of Satellite Data and Uncertainty in a Nationwide Groundwater Recharge Model in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier Westerhoff


    collaborative research associated with the NGRM model include: improvement of rainfall-runoff models, establishment of snowmelt and river recharge modules, further improvement of estimates of rainfall and AET, and satellite-derived AET in irrigated areas. Importantly, the quantification of uncertainty, which should be associated with all future models, should give further impetus to field measurements of rainfall recharge for the purpose of model calibration.

  6. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model (United States)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.


    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M

  7. The physical model of a terraced plot: first results (United States)

    Perlotto, Chiara; D'Agostino, Vincenzo; Buzzanca, Giacomo


    Terrace building have been expanded in the 19th century because of the increased demographic pressure and the need to crop additional areas at steeper slopes. Terraces are also important to regulate the hydrological behavior of the hillslope. Few studies are available in literature on rainfall-runoff processes and flood risk mitigation in terraced areas. Bench terraces, reducing the terrain slope and the length of the overland flow, quantitatively control the runoff flow velocity, facilitating the drainage and thus leading to a reduction of soil erosion. The study of the hydrologic-hydraulic function of terraced slopes is essential in order to evaluate their possible use to cooperate for flood-risk mitigation also preserving the landscape value. This research aims to better focus the times of the hydrological response, which are determined by a hillslope plot bounded by a dry-stone wall, considering both the overland flow and the groundwater. A physical model, characterized by a quasi-real scale, has been built to reproduce the behavior of a 3% outward sloped terrace at bare soil condition. The model consists of a steel metal box (1 m large, 3.3 m long, 2 m high) containing the hillslope terrain. The terrain is equipped with two piezometers, 9 TDR sensors measuring the volumetric water content, a surface spillway at the head releasing the steady discharge under test, a scale at the wall base to measure the outflowing discharge. The experiments deal with different initial moisture condition (non-saturated and saturated), and discharges of 19.5, 12.0 and 5.0 l/min. Each experiment has been replicated, conducting a total number of 12 tests. The volumetric water content analysis produced by the 9 TDR sensors was able to provide a quite satisfactory representation of the soil moisture during the runs. Then, different lag times at the outlet since the inflow initiation were measured both for runoff and groundwater. Moreover, the time of depletion and the piezometer

  8. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes? (United States)

    Ayzel, Georgy


    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  9. Evaluating and improving hydrologic processes in the community land model for integrated earth system modeling (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Khamis, K.; Blaen, P. J.; Hainie, S.; Mellor, C.; Brown, L. E.; Milner, A. M.


    High climatic sensitivity and low anthropogenic influence make glacierized river basins important environments for examining hydrological and ecological response to global change. This paper synthesises findings from previous and ongoing research in glacierized Alpine and Arctic river basins (located in the French Pyrenees, New Zealand, Swedish Lapland and Svalbard), which adopts an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the climate-cryosphere-hydrology-ecology cascade. Data are used to advance hypotheses concerning the consequences of climate change/ variability on glacier river system hydrology and ecology. Aquatic ecosystems in high latitude and altitude environments are influenced strongly by cryospheric and hydrological processes due to links between atmospheric forcing, snowpack/ glacier mass-balance, river runoff, physico-chemistry and biota. In the current phase of global warming, many glaciers are retreating. Using downscaled regional climate projections as inputs to a distributed hydrological model for a study basin in the French Pyrenees (i.e. an environment at the contemporary limit of valley glaciation), we show how shrinking snow and ice-masses may alter space-time dynamics in basin runoff. Notably, the timing of peak snow- and ice-melt may shift; and the proportion of stream flow sourced from rainfall-runoff (cf. meltwater) may increase. Across our range of Alpine and Arctic study basins, we quantify observed links between relative water source contributions (% meltwater : % groundwater), physico-chemical habitat (e.g. water temperature, electrical conductivity, suspended sediment and channel stability) and benthic communities. At the site scale, results point towards increased community diversity (taxonomic and functional) as meltwater contributions decline and physico-chemical habitat becomes less harsh. However, basin-scale biodiversity may be reduced due to less spatio-temporal heterogeneity in water source contributions and habitats, and the

  10. Integration of hydro-climatic data and land use in neural networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a context of climate disruption due to uncontrolled human activities, the classical models of rainfall - runoff modeling are almost unusable. In addition on the Lobo River (Southwest of Côte d'Ivoire), no simulation study has been carried out yet despite that, this river has flooded fields and villages causing huge losses in ...

  11. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a combination of in-situ measurements and remotely-sensed data to predict ungauged runoff from Middle Zambezi Basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre Hydrologic Modelling. System (HEC-HMS) rainfall-runoff model, with the aim of improving water balance estimation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Study area.

  12. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment


    Burguete, J.; García-Navarro, P.; Aliod, R.


    A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization) are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  13. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Burguete


    Full Text Available A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  14. Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses (United States)

    Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James


    Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

  15. A Bézier-Spline-based Model for the Simulation of Hysteresis in Variably Saturated Soil (United States)

    Cremer, Clemens; Peche, Aaron; Thiele, Luisa-Bianca; Graf, Thomas; Neuweiler, Insa


    Most transient variably saturated flow models neglect hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship (Beven, 2012). Such models tend to inadequately represent matrix potential and saturation distribution. Thereby, when simulating flow and transport processes, fluid and solute fluxes might be overestimated (Russo et al., 1989). In this study, we present a simple, computationally efficient and easily applicable model that enables to adequately describe hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship for variably saturated flow. This model can be seen as an extension to the existing play-type model (Beliaev and Hassanizadeh, 2001), where scanning curves are simplified as vertical lines between main imbibition and main drainage curve. In our model, we use continuous linear and Bézier-Spline-based functions. We show the successful validation of the model by numerically reproducing a physical experiment by Gillham, Klute and Heermann (1976) describing primary drainage and imbibition in a vertical soil column. With a deviation of 3%, the simple Bézier-Spline-based model performs significantly better that the play-type approach, which deviates by 30% from the experimental results. Finally, we discuss the realization of physical experiments in order to extend the model to secondary scanning curves and in order to determine scanning curve steepness. {Literature} Beven, K.J. (2012). Rainfall-Runoff-Modelling: The Primer. John Wiley and Sons. Russo, D., Jury, W. A., & Butters, G. L. (1989). Numerical analysis of solute transport during transient irrigation: 1. The effect of hysteresis and profile heterogeneity. Water Resources Research, 25(10), 2109-2118. Beliaev, A.Y. & Hassanizadeh, S.M. (2001). A Theoretical Model of Hysteresis and Dynamic Effects in the Capillary Relation for Two-phase Flow in Porous Media. Transport in Porous Media 43: 487. doi:10.1023/A:1010736108256. Gillham, R., Klute, A., & Heermann, D. (1976). Hydraulic properties of a porous

  16. A Bayesian Uncertainty Framework for Conceptual Snowmelt and Hydrologic Models Applied to the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (United States)

    Smith, T.; Marshall, L.


    In many mountainous regions, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack (Williams et al., 1999). In an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and functional modeling of snow-driven watersheds, a flexible hydrologic modeling framework is being developed. The aim is to create a suite of models that move from parsimonious structures, concentrated on aggregated watershed response, to those focused on representing finer scale processes and distributed response. This framework will operate as a tool to investigate the link between hydrologic model predictive performance, uncertainty, model complexity, and observable hydrologic processes. Bayesian methods, and particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, are extremely useful in uncertainty assessment and parameter estimation of hydrologic models. However, these methods have some difficulties in implementation. In a traditional Bayesian setting, it can be difficult to reconcile multiple data types, particularly those offering different spatial and temporal coverage, depending on the model type. These difficulties are also exacerbated by sensitivity of MCMC algorithms to model initialization and complex parameter interdependencies. As a way of circumnavigating some of the computational complications, adaptive MCMC algorithms have been developed to take advantage of the information gained from each successive iteration. Two adaptive algorithms are compared is this study, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2001), and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2006). While neither algorithm is truly Markovian, it has been proven that each satisfies the desired ergodicity and stationarity properties of Markov chains. Both algorithms were implemented as the uncertainty and parameter estimation framework for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the

  17. Global, continental and regional water balance estimates from HYPE catchment modelling (United States)

    Arheimer, Berit; Andersson, Jafet; Crochemore, Louise; Donnelly, Chantal; Gustafsson, David; Hasan, Abdoulghani; Isberg, Kristina; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Pimentel, Rafael; Pineda, Luis


    In the past, catchment modelling mainly focused on simulating the lumped hydrological cycle at local to regional domains with high precision in a specific point of a river. Today, the level of maturity in hydrological process descriptions, input data and methods for parameter constraints makes it possible to apply these models also for multi-basins over large domains, still using the catchment modellers approach with high demands on agreement with observed data. HYPE is a process-oriented, semi-distributed and open-source model concept that is developed and used operationally in Sweden since a decade. Its finest calculation unit is hydrological response units (HRUs) in a catchment and these are assumed to give the same rainfall-runoff response. HRUs are normally made up of similar land cover and management, combined with soil type or elevation. Water divides are retrieved from topography and calculations are integrated for catchments, which can be of different spatial resolution and are coupled along the river network. In each catchment, HYPE calculates the water balance of a given time-step separately for various hydrological storages, such glaciers, active soil, groundwater, river channels, wetlands, floodplains, and lakes. The model is calibrated in a step-wise manner (following the water path-ways) against various sources additional data sources, including in-situ observations, Earth Observation products, soft information and expert judgements (Arheimer et al., 2012; Donnelly et al, 2016; Pechlivanidis and Arheimer 2015). Both the HYPE code and the model set-ups (i.e. input data and parameter values) are frequently released in new versions as they are continuously improved and updated. This presentation will show the results of aggregated water-balance components over large domains, such as the Arctic basin, the European continent, the Indian subcontinent and the Niger River basin. These can easily be compared to results from other kind of large-scale modelling

  18. A fully-online Neuro-Fuzzy model for flow forecasting in basins with limited data (United States)

    Ashrafi, Mohammad; Chua, Lloyd Hock Chye; Quek, Chai; Qin, Xiaosheng


    Current state-of-the-art online neuro fuzzy models (NFMs) such as DENFIS (Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System) have been used for runoff forecasting. Online NFMs adopt a local learning approach and are able to adapt to changes continuously. The DENFIS model however requires upper/lower bound for normalization and also the number of rules increases monotonically. This requirement makes the model unsuitable for use in basins with limited data, since a priori data is required. In order to address this and other drawbacks of current online models, the Generic Self-Evolving Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (GSETSK) is adopted in this study for forecast applications in basins with limited data. GSETSK is a fully-online NFM which updates its structure and parameters based on the most recent data. The model does not require the need for historical data and adopts clustering and rule pruning techniques to generate a compact and up-to-date rule-base. GSETSK was used in two forecast applications, rainfall-runoff (a catchment in Sweden) and river routing (Lower Mekong River) forecasts. Each of these two applications was studied under two scenarios: (i) there is no prior data, and (ii) only limited data is available (1 year for the Swedish catchment and 1 season for the Mekong River). For the Swedish Basin, GSETSK model results were compared to available results from a calibrated HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model. For the Mekong River, GSETSK results were compared against the URBS (Unified River Basin Simulator) model. Both comparisons showed that results from GSETSK are comparable with the physically based models, which were calibrated with historical data. Thus, even though GSETSK was trained with a very limited dataset in comparison with HBV or URBS, similar results were achieved. Similarly, further comparisons between GSETSK with DENFIS and the RBF (Radial Basis Function) models highlighted further advantages of GSETSK as having a rule-base (compared to

  19. Enabling high-quality observations of surface imperviousness for water runoff modelling from unmanned aerial vehicles (United States)

    Tokarczyk, Piotr; Leitao, Joao Paulo; Rieckermann, Jörg; Schindler, Konrad; Blumensaat, Frank


    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual sub-catchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we evaluate the model

  20. Hydrograph prediction in ungauged basins: Development of a closure relation for Hortonian runoff

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vannametee, E.


    Hydrological forecasting and predictions under environmental change are often hampered by a lack of historical flow measurements and catchment physical data to characterize the system’s behaviour. This thesis presents a parsimonious semi-distributed rainfall-runoff modelling framework based on

  1. Development and assessment of rules to parameterise the ACRU ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1Centre for Water Resources Research, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg Campus, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, 3209, South Africa. 2Bioresources ... and (ii) rainfall-runoff based techniques (Smithers and Schulze,. 2002; Smithers ...... and land use classification with decision support systems for use in models.

  2. Using satellite-based rainfall data to support the implementation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Oct 30, 2009 ... Abstract. The methods currently available in South Africa to implement environmental flows are based on real-time rainfall-runoff ... data in hydrological modelling which supports the implementation of environmental water requirements. ..... B and TENTE T (2009) Decision support system for the Berg River.

  3. A new time-space accounting scheme to predict stream water residence time and hydrograph source components at the watershed scale (United States)

    Takahiro Sayama; Jeffrey J. McDonnell


    Hydrograph source components and stream water residence time are fundamental behavioral descriptors of watersheds but, as yet, are poorly represented in most rainfall-runoff models. We present a new time-space accounting scheme (T-SAS) to simulate the pre-event and event water fractions, mean residence time, and spatial source of streamflow at the watershed scale. We...

  4. Influence of time of concentration on variation of runoff from a small urbanized watershed (United States)

    Devendra Amatya; Agnieszka Cupak; Andrzej Walega


    The main objective of the paper is to estimate the influence of time of concentration (TC) on maximum flow in an urbanized watershed. The calculations of maximum flow have been carried out using the Rational method, Technical Release 55 (TR55) procedure based on NRCS (National Resources Conservation Services) guidelines, and NRCS-UH rainfall-runoff model. Similarly,...

  5. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study applied a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) and GIS techniques to estimate both the gauged and ungauged runoff contribution to the water balance of Cahora Bassa. The rivers considered in the study are the Zambezi, Kafue, Luangwa, Chongwe, Musengezi and Manyame. Missing data were generated using the ...

  6. Using satellite-based rainfall data to support the implementation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The methods currently available in South Africa to implement environmental flows are based on real-time rainfall-runoff models (which require accurate inputs of rainfall data) or the use of flow gauges. Both methods are useful but have limitations which must be fully understood. The main limitation of the latter approach is ...

  7. Influence of landscape position and transient water table on soil development and carbon distribution in a steep, headwater catchment (United States)

    Scott W. Bailey; Patricia A. Brousseau; Kevin J. McGuire; Donald S. Ross


    Upland headwater catchments, such as those in the AppalachianMountain region, are typified by coarse textured soils, flashy hydrologic response, and low baseflow of streams, suggesting well drained soils and minimal groundwater storage. Model formulations of soil genesis, nutrient cycling, critical loads and rainfall/runoff response are typically based on vertical...

  8. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 751 - 800 of 1011 ... Vol 36, No 3 (2017), PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND FLUID CONTACT PREDICTION FOR ALPHA RESERVOIR (A PARTIALLY APPRAISED FIELD) ONSHORE NIGER DELTA. Abstract PDF ... Vol 33, No 4 (2014), Rainfall Runoff Model for Calabar Metropolis Using Multiple Regression, Abstract PDF.

  9. Monitoring and modeling water temperature and trophic status of a shallow Mediterranean lake (United States)

    Giadrossich, Filippo; Bueche, Thomas; Pulina, Silvia; Marrosu, Roberto; Padedda, Bachisio Mario; Mariani, Maria Antonietta; Vetter, Mark; Cohen, Denis; Pirastru, Mario; Niedda, Marcello; Lugliè, Antonella


    Lakes are sensitive to changes in climate and human activities. Over the last few decades, Mediterranean lakes have experienced various problems due to the current climate change (drought, flood, warming, salt accumulation, water quality changes, etc.), often amplified by water use, intensification of land use activities, and pollution. The overall impact of these changes on water resources is still an open question. In this study we monitor the trophic status and the dynamics of water temperature of Lake Baratz, the only natural lake in Sardinia, Italy, characterized by high salinity and shallow depth. We extend the research carried out in the past 8 years by integrating new physical, chemical and biological data using a multidisciplinary approach that combines hydrological and biological dynamics. In particular, the lake water balance and the thermal and hydrochemical regime are studied with a lake dynamic model (the General Lake Model or GLM) which combine the energy budget method for estimating lake evaporation, and a physically-based rainfall-runoff simulator for estimating lake inflow, calibrated with measurements at the cross section of the main inlet stream. The trophic state of the lake was evaluated applying the OCDE Probability Distribution Diagrams method, which requires nutrient concentrations in the lake (total phosphorus), phytoplankton chlorophyll a and Secchi disk transparency data. We collected field data from a raft station and a land station, measuring net solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity, precipitation, wind velocity, atmospheric pressure, and temperature from thermistors submerged in the uppermost three centimeters of water and beneath the lake surface at depths of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 m. Samples for nutrients and chlorophyll a analyses were collected at the same above mentioned depths close to the raft station using a Niskin bottle. Temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen were measured using a multi

  10. Impacts of Polarimetric CASA Radar Observations on a Distributed Hydrologic Model (United States)

    Chandrasekar, Venkatachalam; Chen, Haonan; Seo, Dong-Jun


    Radar can monitor the atmospheric conditions of a wide area very quickly and provide advanced observations and warnings for the precipitation systems at high spatial resolution. Over the past two decades, significant progress has been made in dual-polarization radar quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). The polarimetric radar observations can provide more information on the drop size distribution and hydrometeor classifications over traditional Z-R methods. Among different rainfall algorithms, the Kdp-based QPE was proved to be immune to the partial beam blockage and hail contamination, and it is also less prone to the calibration errors. The networked Kdp-based QPE system developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center (NSF-ERC) for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) has shown a great improvement compared with state-of-the-art. The high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall products from CASA QPE system can serve as a reliable data input for distributed hydrological models. The Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) developed by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) is a promising tool for generating streamflow and other hydrological information such as soil moisture, etc. It can incorporate the heat transfer (HT) dynamics with the Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC) to simulate rainfall-runoff and channel routing models for routing streamflow. In this research, the SAC-HT model was forced using hourly rainfall estimates produced by the CASA X-band dual-polarization radar network, for the purpose of predicting hydrological response and dealing with the flash flood issues. This paper will present a brief overview of the CASA QPE system and its various products. Then, the impacts of CASA QPE on SAC-HT model are mainly focused on, by using the networked polarimetric radar observations collected in IP-1 test bed in Southwestern Oklahoma. The "first

  11. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources (United States)

    Eliza, K.


    resource as a primary step towards the eventual goal to design effective conservation and management practices for the entire Loktak eco-system. Keywords: Water quality modelling, hydrodynamic modelling, rainfall- runoff model, hydrobiology

  12. Modeling Economic Impacts of Environmental Flows in California's Yuba River Watershed (United States)

    Rheinheimer, D. E.; Yarnell, S.; Viers, J. H.


    Managing rivers is becoming more challenging with increasing demand for better environmental flow regimes, just as demand for water for hydropower and water supply are increasing and water supplies are changing due to climate change. Restoration of freshwater ecosystems, such as in the Yuba River in California’s Sierra Nevada, will require flows that mimic the natural flow regime, which native freshwater species are uniquely adapted to. In particular, freshwater ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada were historically adapted to the spring snowmelt flows. To study the potential effects of restoring a natural flow regime to the Yuba River watershed, we developed a multi-reservoir network flow optimization model of the watershed that represents environmental flows more ecologically useful than simple minimum instream flows, which are typically the only environmental requirement in streams. The model uses weekly time steps. The objective function is to maximize benefit, which equals hydropower revenue less penalties for deviations from environmental constraints and spills. Constraints include targets for minimum flows, maximum flows, maximum weekly up-ramp rates and maximum weekly down-ramp rates. We applied the model to the Yuba River watershed surface water inflow data from a rainfall-runoff model recently developed for the Sierra Nevada that considers regional climate warming of +0, 2, 4 and 6 °C. The Yuba watershed has high potential for fish restoration yet is currently managed primarily for hydropower. We assess the economic effects (primarily impacts on hydropower generation and revenues in the adjacent Bear River) and management implications of increasing and reshaping instream flow requirements in several ecologically important, yet regulated, stream reaches within the Yuba watershed. Further, we explore the potential of using regulating reservoirs to adapt to changing hydrologic conditions. Increasing minimum instream flow magnitudes in the South Fork Yuba River

  13. Hydrological modelling of the Mara River Basin, Kenya: Dealing with uncertain data quality and calibrating using river stage (United States)

    Hulsman, P.; Bogaard, T.; Savenije, H. H. G.


    In hydrology and water resources management, discharge is the main time series for model calibration. Rating curves are needed to derive discharge from continuously measured water levels. However, assuring their quality is demanding due to dynamic changes and problems in accurately deriving discharge at high flows. This is valid everywhere, but even more in African socio-economic context. To cope with these uncertainties, this study proposes to use water levels instead of discharge data for calibration. Also uncertainties in rainfall measurements, especially the spatial heterogeneity needs to be considered. In this study, the semi-distributed rainfall runoff model FLEX-Topo was applied to the Mara River Basin. In this model seven sub-basins were distinguished and four hydrological response units with each a unique model structure based on the expected dominant flow processes. Parameter and process constrains were applied to exclude unrealistic results. To calibrate the model, the water levels were back-calculated from modelled discharges, using cross-section data and the Strickler formula calibrating parameter `k•s1/2', and compared to measured water levels. The model simulated the water depths well for the entire basin and the Nyangores sub-basin in the north. However, the calibrated and observed rating curves differed significantly at the basin outlet, probably due to uncertainties in the measured discharge, but at Nyangores they were almost identical. To assess the effect of rainfall uncertainties on the hydrological model, the representative rainfall in each sub-basin was estimated with three different methods: 1) single station, 2) average precipitation, 3) areal sub-division using Thiessen polygons. All three methods gave on average similar results, but method 1 resulted in more flashy responses, method 2 dampened the water levels due to averaging the rainfall and method 3 was a combination of both. In conclusion, in the case of unreliable rating curves

  14. Design of a multi-agent hydroeconomic model to simulate a complex human-water system: Early insights from the Jordan Water Project (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.


    Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for purposes of water policy evaluation in Jordan. The model adopts a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the groundwater model, we adopt a response matrix method approach in which a 3-dimensional MODFLOW model of a complex regional groundwater system is converted into a linear simulator of groundwater response by pre-processing drawdown results from several hundred numerical simulation runs. Surface water models for each major surface water basin in the country are developed in SWAT and similarly translated into simple rainfall-runoff functions for integration with the multi-agent model. The approach balances physically-based, spatially-explicit representation of hydrologic systems with the efficiency required for integration into a complex multi-agent model that is computationally amenable to robust scenario analysis. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly represent human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. The agents' decision making models incorporate both rule-based heuristics as well as economic optimization. The model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented code framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The Jordan model is one of the first applications of Pynsim to a real-world water management case study. Preliminary results from a tanker market scenario run through year 2050 are presented in which several salient features of the water system are investigated: competition between urban and

  15. Flood forecasting with DDD-application of a parsimonious hydrological model in operational flood forecasting in Norway (United States)

    Skaugen, Thomas; Haddeland, Ingjerd


    A new parameter-parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) has been run operationally at the Norwegian Flood Forecasting Service for approximately a year. DDD has been calibrated for, altogether, 104 catchments throughout Norway, and provide runoff forecasts 8 days ahead on a daily temporal resolution driven by precipitation and temperature from the meteorological forecast models AROME (48 hrs) and EC (192 hrs). The current version of DDD differs from the standard model used for flood forecasting in Norway, the HBV model, in its description of the subsurface and runoff dynamics. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M, is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than the HBV model. Experiences using DDD show that especially the timing of flood peaks has improved considerably and in a comparison between DDD and HBV, when assessing timeseries of 64 years for 75 catchments, DDD had a higher hit rate and a lower false alarm rate than HBV. For flood peaks higher than the mean annual flood the median hit rate is 0.45 and 0.41 for the DDD and HBV models respectively. Corresponding number for the false alarm rate is 0.62 and 0.75 For floods over the five year return interval, the median hit rate is 0.29 and 0.28 for the DDD and HBV models, respectively with false alarm rates equal to 0.67 and 0.80. During 2014 the Norwegian flood forecasting service will run DDD operationally at a 3h temporal

  16. Modelagem hidrológica em microbacia hidrográfica parte II: teste do modelo HidroBacia Hydrologic modeling of a small watershed part II: HidroBacia model test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidney S. Zanetti


    Full Text Available Este trabalho consistiu na modelagem hidrológica de uma microbacia hidrográfica utilizando-se o modelo HidroBacia, no qual o processo de infiltração da água no solo é representado por meio da equação de Green-Ampt modificada por Mein e Larson. Obtiveram-se, dentre os parâmetros desta equação, o potencial matricial na frente de umedecimento, a condutividade hidráulica e a umidade do solo na zona de transmissão, através de diversos métodos apresentados na literatura; desta forma, foram preparadas e testadas 36 combinações de dados de entrada, visando identificar as que apresentam melhor desempenho nas simulações do hidrograma de escoamento superficial com o modelo e se selecionaram, dentre os eventos de chuva-vazão registrados na microbacia, os 14 mais relevantes para realização das simulações. Das 36 combinações de dados de entrada testadas, seis apresentaram melhor desempenho na estimação dos hidrogramas. O modelo HidroBacia ainda necessita de aprimoramentos, juntamente com análises de sensibilidade, com vista a identificar possíveis incompatibilidades entre os dados de entrada e os respectivos resultados das simulações, uma vez que o modelo apresentou resultados incoerentes em determinadas situações.This work consisted of the hydrologic modeling of a small watershed using the HidroBacia model. The soil water infiltration process is represented by means of the Green-Ampt equation, modified by Mein and Larson, in this model. Among the equation parameters, matric potential in the wetting front, hydraulic conductivity and soil moisture in the "field saturation" were obtained using different methods based on previous scientific literature. Thirty six input data combinations were tested in order to identify those that showed better performance on the runoff hydrograph simulations with the model. Between the rainfall-runoff events registered on watershed, the most relevant (14 of them were selected to perform the

  17. Analysis of climate change scenarios in an olive orchard microcatchment in Spain using the model WIMMED (United States)

    Guzmán, Enrique; Aguilar, Cristina; José Polo, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.


    Olive orchards constitute traditional systems in the Mediterranean Basin. In Andalusia, Southern Spain, more than 1.5Mha are dedicated to olive crop land use, which represent a production of 1Mt of olive oil per year. This is a strategic economic sector with environmental and social relevance. In the context of climate change in Andalusia, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has highlighted that an increase of temperatures and rainfall intensities as well as the reduction of cumulated rainfall might be expected. This may mean serious detrimental economic and environmental risks associated to floods and the reduction of available water resources which would be convenient to quantify. The objective of this work is to analyse the rainfall-runoff relationships in an olive orchard catchment by the application of the distributed hydrological model WIMMED (Herrero et al., 2009) simulating the effects of climate change, with a special emphasis on extreme events. Firstly, the model was calibrated and validated with 9 maximum annual events of a datasets from 2005-2012 obtained in an olive orchard catchment in Spain (Taguas et al., 2010). In this stage, only the saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil moisture in saturation were adjusted after a sensitivity analysis where 68 simulations were carried out. A good agreement was obtained between observed and simulated hydrographs. The mean errors and the root mean square errors were 0.18 mm and 2.19 mm for the calibration and 0.18 and 1.94 mm, for the validation. Finally, the catchment response to the increase of intensity and temperature and the reduction of cumulated rainfall were simulated for the maximum event of the series. The results showed a rise of 11% of the runoff coefficient quantifying the possible impact of climate change. REFERENCES Herrero J, Polo M., Moñino A., Losada MA (2009). An energy balance snowmelt model in a Mediterranean site. J. Hydrol. 371, pp. 98-107 Taguas EV, Peña A, Ayuso JL, Yuan Y

  18. Rain floods regime in the Amur Basin under climate changes impact: assessing by dynamic-stochastic modelling (United States)

    Gartsmsn, Boris; Lupakov, Sergey


    A number of extraordinarily rare hydrological events, occurred in the Amur Basin over the past 20 years, support the reality of runoff regime alteration along evident climate changes. The most suitable tools to study the hydrological consequences of climate changes impact is the dynamic-stochastic modeling. For assessment of climate changes impact we used prediction scheme with basin-indicators, the core of that is regional rainfall-runoff model (Flood Cycle Model, FCM). Indicators are the small basins, which were used to calibration and parameterization of FCM. Input data is daily total precipitation. Output is calculated hydrograph as sequence of daily hydrographs. The climate scenarios used are very simple: just increasing sum of precipitation for 10 and 20%. Only 2 statistical moments (norm and variation coefficient) and only for 2 hydrological parameters (maximal discharges of rain floods Qmax and seasonal total runoff during Jun-Sept WVI-IX) were estimated with the model runs Two test-bed basins were selected (every of which includes few small catchments) for experiments - Ussuri river near Kirovsky, 24400 km2, and Bureya river near Malinovka, 67400 km2. First stage of work includes the simulation experiments with real precipitation from nearest meteo-station. Thereby we got model frequency curves of for each small basins, that seems in good accordance with observed ones, lying inside of their confidential intervals and reproduce individual features of different basins. Next stage was trying the climate scenarios. Two approaches were used to increase precipitation. One (analog) was to attract the precipitation data from others meteo-stations, located in much rainy conditions, second one was just to multiply the precipitation by coefficient. It was found, that results with analog scenarios are very different, but in average is very similar to just increasing the precipitation for 20%. So at last we used only real precipitation, increased by 10 and 20%. Finally

  19. Modelling impacts of climate change on water resources in ungauged and data-scarce watersheds. Application to the Siurana catchment (NE Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candela, Lucila, E-mail: [Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geoscience, Technical University of Catalonia-UPC, 08034, Barcelona (Spain); Tamoh, Karim [Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geoscience, Technical University of Catalonia-UPC, 08034, Barcelona (Spain); Olivares, Gonzalo; Gomez, Manuel [Flumen Research Institute, UPC Gran Capitan s.n. Barcelona (Spain)


    Gaining knowledge on potential climate change impacts on water resources is a complex process which depends on numerical models capable of describing these processes in quantitative terms. Under limited data or ungauged basin conditions, which constrain the modelling approach, a physically based coherent methodological approach is required. The traditional approach to assess flow regime and groundwater recharge impacts, based on coupling general atmosphere-ocean circulation models (GCM) and hydrologic models, has been investigated in the Siurana ungauged catchment (NE Spain). The future A2 (medium-high) and B1 (medium-low) greenhouse gas scenarios and time slices 2013-2037 (2025) and 2038-2062 (2050), developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), have been selected. For scenario simulations, coupled GCM ECHAM5 scenarios, stochastically downscaled outputs and surface-subsurface modelling to simulate changes in water resources were applied to the catchment. Flow regime analysis was assessed by HEC-HMS, a physically based hydrologic model to assess rainfall-runoff in a catchment, while recharge was estimated with VisualBALAN, a distributed model for natural recharge estimation. Simulations show that the projected climate change at the catchment will affect the entire hydrological system with a maximum of 56% reduction of water resources. While subtle changes are observed for the 2025 time slice, the temperature and precipitation forecast for 2050 shows a maximum increase of 2.2 Degree-Sign C and a decreased precipitation volume of 11.3% in relation to historical values. Regarding historical values, runoff output shows a maximum 20% decrease, and 18% decrease of natural recharge with a certain delay in relation to runoff and rainfall data. According to the results, the most important parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in climatic parameters, but they are highly dependent on soil moisture conditions. -- Highlights

  20. Methods to model particulate matter clarification of unit operations subject to unsteady loadings. (United States)

    Spelman, David; Sansalone, John J


    Stormwater, and also wastewater unit operations (UOs) to a much lower extent, are subject to unsteady hydrodynamic and particulate matter (PM) fluxes. Simulating fully transient clarification of hetero-disperse PM requires much greater computational expense compared to steady simulations. An alternative to fully unsteady methods are stepwise steady (SS) methods which use stepwise steady flow transport and fate to approximate unsteady PM clarification of a UO during transient hydraulic loadings such as rainfall-runoff. The rationale is reduced computational effort for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) compared to simulating continuous unsteadiness of such events. An implicit solution stepwise steady (IS3) method is one approach which builds upon previous SS methods. The IS3 method computes steady flows that are representative of unsteady PM transport throughout an unsteady loading. This method departs from some previous SS methods that assume PM fate can be simulated with an instantaneous clarifier (basin) influent flowrate coupled with a PM input. In this study, various SS methods were tested for basins of varying size and residence time to examine PM fate. Differences between SS methods were a function of turnover fraction indicating the role of unsteady flowrates on PM transport for larger basins of longer residence times. The breakpoint turnover fraction was between two and three. The IS3 method best approximated unsteady behavior of larger basins. These methods identified limitations when utilizing standard event-based loading analysis for larger basins. For basins with a turnover fraction less than two, the majority of effluent PM did not originate from the event-based flow; originating from previous event loadings or existing storage. Inter- and multiple event processes and interactions, that are dependent on this inflow turnover fraction, are not accounted for by single event-based inflow models. Results suggest the use of long-term continuous modeling

  1. The influence of high-rise buildings on urban stormwater response - a laboratory physical model (United States)

    Isidoro, J. M. G. P.; Rocheta, V. L. S.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.


    One consequence of the tendency for population agglomeration in large urban centres is the construction of more high-rise buildings, which both allows for a better use of the space available and reduces the construction cost per unit of area. The influence of high-rise buildings on the response of urban drainage systems to wind-driven rain is currently not well known. The importance of the combined action of wind and rain has been recognized by a number of investigators. Some investigators have also considered the movement of rainfall over basins, particularly upstream or downstream movement. This study, based on the physical modelling in the laboratory of the rainfall-runoff process in areas with a range of densities of high-rise buildings (typical in downtown areas), aims to help to improve our knowledge in this specific domain. Laboratory tests were carried out to simulate the response of a drainage system to static and moving rainfall in diverse directions, with varied building density, and considering the existence or non-existence of wind. A physical model (1:100 scale) was built in the laboratory, representing an urban area of 40 000 m2, with high rise buildings (rectangular three dimensional elements representing medium to large buildings of approximately 20 storeys). A rain simulator (full-cone nozzle) was installed on a structure that was electrically driven along a rail to simulate the rain cell movement. Preliminary laboratory experiments illustrate the influence of high density construction on stormwater's flow. Results will also analyse the influence of storm movement and wind which affects the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall at ground level. The laboratory experiments described in this work show that the construction density, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall, wind and storm movement have a marked influence on the processes of overland flow. The results indicate considerable differences in runoff volumes and peaks, and

  2. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David


    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  3. A neuro-fuzzy model to predict the inflow to the guardialfiera multipurpose dam (Southern Italy at medium-long time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Termite


    Full Text Available Intelligent computing tools based on fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks have been successfully applied in various problems with superior performances. A new approach of combining these two powerful tools, known as neuro-fuzzy systems, has increasingly attracted scientists in different fields. Few studies have been undertaken to evaluate their performances in hydrologic modeling. Specifically are available rainfall-runoff modeling typically at very short time scales (hourly, daily or event for the real-time forecasting of floods with in input precipitation and past runoff (i.e. inflow rate and in few cases models for the prediction of the monthly inflows to a dam using the past inflows as input. This study presents an application of an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS, as a neuro-fuzzy-computational technique, in the forecasting of the inflow to the Guardialfiera multipurpose dam (CB, Italy at the weekly and monthly time scale. The latter has been performed both directly at monthly scale (monthly input data and iterating the weekly model. Twenty-nine years of rainfall, temperature, water level in the reservoir and releases to the different uses were available. In all simulations meteorological input data were used and in some cases also the past inflows. The performance of the defined ANFIS models were established by different efficiency and correlation indices. The results at the weekly time scale can be considered good, with a Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency index E = 0.724 in the testing phase. At the monthly time scale, satisfactory results were obtained with the iteration of the weekly model for the prediction of the incoming volume up to 3 weeks ahead (E = 0.574, while the direct simulation of monthly inflows gave barely satisfactory results (E = 0.502. The greatest difficulties encountered in the analysis were related to the reliability of the available data. The results of this study demonstrate the promising

  4. Analysis of Modeling Assumptions used in Production Cost Models for Renewable Integration Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoll, Brady [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    Renewable energy integration studies have been published for many different regions exploring the question of how higher penetration of renewable energy will impact the electric grid. These studies each make assumptions about the systems they are analyzing; however the effect of many of these assumptions has not been yet been examined and published. In this paper we analyze the impact of modeling assumptions in renewable integration studies, including the optimization method used (linear or mixed-integer programming) and the temporal resolution of the dispatch stage (hourly or sub-hourly). We analyze each of these assumptions on a large and a small system and determine the impact of each assumption on key metrics including the total production cost, curtailment of renewables, CO2 emissions, and generator starts and ramps. Additionally, we identified the impact on these metrics if a four-hour ahead commitment step is included before the dispatch step and the impact of retiring generators to reduce the degree to which the system is overbuilt. We find that the largest effect of these assumptions is at the unit level on starts and ramps, particularly for the temporal resolution, and saw a smaller impact at the aggregate level on system costs and emissions. For each fossil fuel generator type we measured the average capacity started, average run-time per start, and average number of ramps. Linear programming results saw up to a 20% difference in number of starts and average run time of traditional generators, and up to a 4% difference in the number of ramps, when compared to mixed-integer programming. Utilizing hourly dispatch instead of sub-hourly dispatch saw no difference in coal or gas CC units for either start metric, while gas CT units had a 5% increase in the number of starts and 2% increase in the average on-time per start. The number of ramps decreased up to 44%. The smallest effect seen was on the CO2 emissions and total production cost, with a 0.8% and 0

  5. Combined deterministic – stochastic forecasting of monthly river flows for water management (United States)

    Peksova Szolgayova, E.; Vyleta, R.; Szolgay, J.; Lukac, Z.


    Monthly discharges can be modelled and predicted by the decomposition of the runoff process model into two components – deterministic and stochastic. For such approach the term hybrid was often adopted. In this study a hybrid (deterministic-stochastic) modelling approach for one step ahead forecasting of mean monthly discharges at the gauging stations Banská Bystrica and Brehy on the Hron River in Slovakia was developed. The aim was to join the conceptual monthly rainfall runoff model KVHK and several time series models of the forecasting error time series of the conceptual model into a hybrid framework. Since these rainfall-runoff model error series may exhibit nonstationarity and heteroscedasticity, beside traditional ARMA models, GARCH type nonlinear time series models were also considered.

  6. Vineyard weeds control practices impact on surface water transfers: using numerical tracer experiment coupled to a distributed hydrological model to manage agricultural practices spatial arrangements. (United States)

    Colin, F.; Moussa, R.


    In rural basins, agricultural landscape management highly influences water and pollutants transfers. Landuse, agricultural practices and their spatial arrangements are at issue. Hydrological model are widely used to explore impacts of anthropogenic influences on experimental catchments. But planning all spatial arrangements leads to a possible cases count which cannot be considered. On the basis of the recent « numerical experiment » approach, we propose a « numerical tracer function » which had to be coupled to a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This function simulate the transfer of a virtual tracer successively spread on each distributed unit inside the catchment. It allows to rank hydrological spatial units according to their hydrological contribution to the surface flows, particularly at the catchment outlet. It was used with the distributed model MHYDAS in an agricultural context. The case study concerns the experimental Roujan vine-growing catchment (1km², south of France) studied since 1992. In this Mediterranean context, we focus on the soil hydraulic conductivity distributed parameter because it highly depends on weed control practices (chemical weeding induces a lot more runoff than mechanical weeding). We checked model sensitivity analysis to soil hydraulic conductivity spatial arrangement on runoff coefficient, peak discharge and catchment lag-time. Results show (i) the use of the tracer function is more efficient than a random approach to improve sensitivity to spatial arrangements from point of view of simulated discharge range, (ii) the first factor explaining hydrological simulations variability was practices area ratio, (iii) variability induced by practices spatial arrangements was significant on runoff coefficient and peak discharge for balanced practices area ratio and on lag-time for low area ratio of chemical weeding practices. From the actual situation on the experimental Roujan catchment (40% of tilled and 60% of non tilled vineyard

  7. The Landlab OverlandFlow component: a Python library for computing shallow-water flow across watersheds


    Adams, Jordan M.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Hobley, Daniel E. J.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Hutton, Eric W. H.; Nudurupati, Sai S.; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan


    Hydrologic models and modeling components are used in a wide range of applications. Rainfall-runoff models are used to investigate the evolution of hydrologic variables, such as soil moisture and surface water discharge, throughout one or more rainfall events. Longer-term landscape evolution models also include aspects of hydrology, albeit in a highly simplified manner, in order to approximate how flowing water shapes landscapes. Here we illustrate how the OverlandFlow hydrologic component co...

  8. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre


    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  9. Importance of High-frequency Chemistry for Resolving Hot Moments in Headwaters: A Combined Optical Sensor and Time-series Modelling Approach (United States)

    Jones, T.; Chappell, N. A.; Tych, W.; Bhalla, R. S.


    There are several studies that clearly demonstrate that storm periods are hot moments for biogeochemical flux in headwaters (e.g. Robson et al 1993 J Hydrol: 291-310). Despite this few models have been developed that can adequately capture fast (e.g. sub-hourly) temporal dynamics through these hot moments, and an equally small proportion of monitoring stations with high-frequency observations that have been analysed systematically. We are able to show that inadequate temporal sampling of hot moments ('aliasing') leads to subsequent misinterpretation of biogeochemical and hydrological processes. We have addressed this through continuous deployment of state-of-the-art field sensors producing sub-hourly river data where hot moment dynamics are extracted directly using new algorithms within the CAPTAIN toolbox, following Jones, Chappell & Tych (2014 Environ Sci Technol: 13289-97). These algorithms are capable of extracting the river transport parameters associated with reactive solutes, notably carbon. We demonstrate that most of the dynamics within these biogeochemical time-series relate to individual rainstorms (the hot moments), with the shape of the storm-based response being strongly moderated by the hydrological pathways. With parsimonious modelling using CAPTAIN we are able to show that these shapes are distorted by under-sampling of stream chemistry giving rise to different interpretations of the biogeochemical pathways and associated hydrological pathways. This work provides clear evidence that researchers and practitioners should implement high-frequency water quality monitoring and associated time-series analysis.

  10. Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods (United States)

    Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan


    Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of

  11. A Tri-National program for estimating the link between snow resources and hydrological droughts


    M. Zappa; T. Vitvar; Rücker, A; G. Melikadze; BERNHARD, L.; David, V; Jans-Singh, M.; Zhukova, N.; Sanda, M.


    To evaluate how summer low flows and droughts are affected by the winter snowpack, a Tri-National effort will analyse data from three catchments: Alpbach (Prealps, central Switzerland), Gudjaretis-Tskali (Little Caucasus, central Georgia), and Kamenice (Jizera Mountains, northern Czech Republic). Two GIS-based rainfall-runoff models will simulate over 10 years of runoff in streams based on rain and snowfall measurements, and further meteorological variables. The models use i...

  12. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment


    Chunlin Li; Miao Liu; Yuanman Hu; Rongqing Han; Tuo Shi; Xiuqi Qu; Yilin Wu


    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and t...

  13. Informing a hydrological model of the Ogooué with multi-mission remote sensing data (United States)

    Kittel, Cecile; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Nielsen, Karina; Tøttrup, Christian


    Knowledge on hydrological regimes of river basins is crucial for water management. However, data requirements often limit the applicability of hydrological models in basins with scarce in-situ data. Remote sensing provides a unique possibility to acquire information on hydrological variables in these basins. This study explores how multi-mission remote sensing data can inform a hydrological model. The Ogooué basin in Gabon is used as study area. No previous modelling efforts have been conducted for the basin and only historical flow and precipitation observations are available. Publicly available remote sensing observations are used to parametrize, force, calibrate and validate a hydrological model of the Ogooué. The modelling framework used in the study, is a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the Budyko framework coupled to a Muskingum routing scheme. Precipitation is a crucial driver of the land-surface water balance, therefore two satellite-based rainfall estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product 3B42 version 7 and Famine Early Warning System - Rainfall Estimate (FEWS-RFE), are compared. The comparison shows good seasonal and spatial agreement between the products; however, TRMM consistently predicts significantly more precipitation: 1726 mm on average per year against 1556 mm for FEWS-RFE. Best modeling results are obtained with the TRMM precipitation forcing. Model calibration combines historical in-situ flow observations and GRACE total water storage observations using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon solution in a multi-objective approach. The two models are calibrated using flow duration curves and climatology benchmarks to overcome the lack of simultaneity between simulated and observed discharge. The objectives are aggregated into a global objective function, and the models are calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm. Water height observations from drifting orbit altimetry missions are

  14. Understanding hydrological and nitrogen interactions by sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model (United States)

    Medici, Chiara; Wade, Andrew; Frances, Felix


    the nitrification constant (Knitr-aquif) and also to the certain soil parameters, like the mineralization constant (Kmin), the annual maximum ammonium uptake (MaxUPNH4) and the mineralization, nitrification and immobilisation thresholds (Umin, Unitr and Uimmob). Moreover the results give a clear indication that the hydrological model greatly affects the streamwater nitrate and ammonium concentrations; 5) result shows that the LU4-N model succeeded in achieving near-optimum fits simultaneously to flow and nitrate, but not ammonium; 6) however, the optimum flow model has not produced a near-optimum nitrate model. The analysis of this result indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters instead of calibrating all parameters together, may not be the best strategy as pointed out for another study by McIntyre et al., 2005 ; 7) a final analysis seems also to support the idea that to obtain a satisfactory nitrogen simulation necessarily the flow should be acceptably represented, which lead to the conclusion that observed stream concentrations may indirectly help to calibrated the rainfall-runoff model, or at least the parameters to which they are sensitive.

  15. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  16. A probabilistic sediment cascade model of sediment transfer through a mountain basin (United States)

    Bennett, G. L.; Molnar, P.; McArdell, B. W.; Lane, S. N.; Burlando, P.


    Mountain basin sediment discharge poses a significant hazard to the downstream population, particularly in the form of debris flows. The importance and sensitivity of snow and ice melt processes in mountain basins along with their rapid rainfall-runoff response makes mountain basin sediment discharge particularly responsive to climate change. It is important to understand and model sediment transfer through mountain basins to be able to predict sediment discharge under a changing climate. We developed a probabilistic sediment cascade model, SedCas, to simulate sediment transfer in a mountain basin (Illgraben, Switzerland) where sediment is produced by hillslope landslides and exported out of the basin by debris flows and floods. We present the model setup, the calibration of the model for the period 2000 - 2009 and the application of SedCas to model sediment discharge in the Illgraben over the 19th and 20th centuries. SedCas conceptualizes the fluvial system as a spatially lumped cascade of connected reservoirs representing hillslope and channel storages where sediment goes through multiple cycles of storage and remobilization by surface runoff. Sediment input is drawn from a probability distribution of slope failures produced for the basin from a time series of DEMs and the model is driven by observed climate. The model includes all relevant hydrological processes that lead to runoff in an Alpine basin, such as snow cover accumulation, snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Although the processes of sediment transfer and debris flow generation are described in a simplified manner, SedCas produces highly complex sediment discharge behavior which is driven by the availability of sediment and antecedent moisture (system memory) as well as triggering potential (climate). The model reproduces the first order properties of observed debris flows over the period 2000-2009 including their probability distribution, seasonal timing and probability of

  17. High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery (United States)

    Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.


    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak

  18. Seasonal River Flow Forecasting Using Multi-model Ensemble Climate Data (United States)

    Lavers, D.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D.; Troccoli, A.


    Developing skilful seasonal forecasting of river flows is important for many societal applications. Long-lead forecasts have potential to aid water management decision making and preparation for human response to hydrological extremes. The seasonal prediction of river flows has been a topic of increasing interest due to the recent 2004-06 drought and 2007 floods experienced in the UK. We compare the relative skill of predictions of river flow using: (1) a multi-Global Climate Model (GCM) ensemble data set and (2) downscaled multi-GCM data as input to a hydrological model. The period considered is 1980- 2001. The River Dyfi basin in West Wales, UK is the focus of this research. This basin is near natural, hence the climate-flow signal should be clearer. The DEMETER project is the source of the multi-model climate data, and this consists of 7 GCMs each with 9 ensemble members. Hindcasts with lead times up to 6 months are available from 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November initial conditions. Each hindcast was split into the first 3 and last 3 months, and the subsequent concatenation of the split hindcasts produced 2 time series (total of 7×9×2 ensemble series), which were run through the Probability Distributed Model (PDM). PDM is a lumped rainfall-runoff model that transforms rainfall and potential evaporation data to river flow at the basin outlet. PDM was calibrated with observations from 1980-1990, and then validated from 1991-2001. The coarse resolution of the DEMETER data (standardised to 2.5° × 2.5° resolution) means that the atmospheric motions at sub-grid scales are not captured by the models. The large spatial disparity between the GCM grids and the scale of the study (471.3 km2) lead to underestimation of precipitation by DEMETER models. This difference is addressed through the use of a statistical downscaling tool, the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The SDSM was calibrated on the ERA-40 re-analysis data set (from the ECMWF), as

  19. Analysis of flooding in urban areas, taking into account the residence time of the water on site case of study: Veracruz, México


    Faustino De Luna C.; Oscar A. Fuentes M; Laura Vélez M.; Rosales Plascencia Ismene L. A.


    Analysing some aspects of water management in urban areas affected by flooding, an event that occurred in September 2010 by overflows Cotaxtla Jamapa and rivers in western Mexico along with the rain event for five consecutive days. In this area, near the Gulf of Mexico, the elevations are less than three meters elevation. Floods are common in cities like Veracruz, in this article the flood risk calculated by means of a hydraulic model of rainfall-runoff dimensional type developed at the...

  20. EnviroFish, Version 1.0: User’s Manual (United States)


    76  Table D-1. Comparison of HEC -HMS and HEC - RAS Features Related to an EnviroFish Analysis...hydraulic computer models such as HEC - RAS . For a set of flowlines, the higher the elevation of the flowline, the greater the magnitude of flow. A set of...Features of the Different HEC Software Programs Feature HEC IFH HEC HMS HEC RAS Unsteady Demo Level Pool Continuous simulation of rainfall-runoff

  1. Crash tests for forward-looking flood control in the city of Zürich (Switzerland)


    Zappa, M.; Andres, N.; P. Kienzler; Näf-Huber, D.; Marti, C.; Oplatka, M


    Floods in the city of Zürich (Switzerland) were already reported in the 13th century. The most severe threat are floods from the Sihl river (336 km2, including also an hydropower reservoir) with peaks exceeding 350 m3 s−1. An assessment using a rainfall-runoff model has been completed to evaluate extreme flood situations by combining 18 precipitation scenarios with different initial conditions. These scenarios identified deficits for the safety of Zürich. For the improvement...

  2. A Real-Time Decision Support System for River Basin Management


    Vyas Ayushi; John Siby


    The applications of computer technology to analysis of the rainfall-runoff process and the hydrological dynamics of natural rivers have greatly expanded in the past few years. A large number of general purpose programs and a few programs designed for specific application have been developed and applied to hydrologic engineering problems. This paper briefly describes the study of climate change effects on the hydrological dynamics of the Satluj and Beas river system using computer models like ...

  3. Evaluation of the appearing changes in water regime at Ráztoka and Červík basins in the Beskydy Mts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tesař, Miroslav; Buchtele, Josef


    Roč. 6, č. 2 (2013), s. 135-148 ISSN 1803-2451 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02021451; GA ČR GA205/09/1918 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : runoff change * salvage clear cutting * modelling of rainfall-runoff process Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  4. Practical assessment of the SWMM programme (United States)

    Hlustik, P.


    The article describes the advantages and disadvantages of the SWMM programme user environment when working with it. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a programme developed by the U.S. EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency). The SWMM programme is used worldwide to plan, analyse and design rainfall-runoff, combined and separate sanitary sewage systems and other drainage systems in urban areas [1]. The programme is freely available to download from the U.S. EPA website [2].

  5. Evaluating the improvements of the BOLAM meteorological model operational at ISPRA: A case study approach - preliminary results (United States)

    Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Lastoria, B.; Accadia, C.; Flavoni, S.


    The Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA (former Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services - APAT) runs operationally since 2000 an integrated meteo-marine forecasting chain, named the Hydro-Meteo-Marine Forecasting System (Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare - SIMM), formed by a cascade of four numerical models, telescoping from the Mediterranean basin to the Venice Lagoon, and initialized by means of analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The operational integrated system consists of a meteorological model, the parallel verision of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), coupled over the Mediterranean sea with a WAve Model (WAM), a high-resolution shallow-water model of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea, namely the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), and a finite-element version of the same model (VL-FEM) on the Venice Lagoon, aimed to forecast the acqua alta events. Recently, the physically based, fully distributed, rainfall-runoff TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model has been integrated into the system, coupled to BOLAM, over two river basins, located in the central and northeastern part of Italy, respectively. However, at the present time, this latter part of the forecasting chain is not operational and it is used in a research configuration. BOLAM was originally implemented in 2000 onto the Quadrics parallel supercomputer (and for this reason referred to as QBOLAM, as well) and only at the end of 2006 it was ported (together with the other operational marine models of the forecasting chain) onto the Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) Altix 8-processor machine. In particular, due to the Quadrics implementation, the Kuo scheme was formerly implemented into QBOLAM for the cumulus convection parameterization. On the contrary, when porting SIMM onto the Altix Linux cluster, it was achievable to implement into QBOLAM the more advanced convection parameterization by Kain and

  6. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.


    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  7. A grid-based distributed flood forecasting model for use with weather radar data: Part 1. Formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell


    Full Text Available A practical methodology for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling using grid square weather radar data is developed for use in real-time flood forecasting. The model, called the Grid Model, is configured so as to share the same grid as used by the weather radar, thereby exploiting the distributed rainfall estimates to the full. Each grid square in the catchment is conceptualised as a storage which receives water as precipitation and generates water by overflow and drainage. This water is routed across the catchment using isochrone pathways. These are derived from a digital terrain model assuming two fixed velocities of travel for land and river pathways which are regarded as model parameters to be optimised. Translation of water between isochrones is achieved using a discrete kinematic routing procedure, parameterised through a single dimensionless wave speed parameter, which advects the water and incorporates diffusion effects through the discrete space-time formulation. The basic model routes overflow and drainage separately through a parallel system of kinematic routing reaches, characterised by different wave speeds but using the same isochrone-based space discretisation; these represent fast and slow pathways to the basin outlet, respectively. A variant allows the slow pathway to have separate isochrones calculated using Darcy velocities controlled by the hydraulic gradient as estimated by the local gradient of the terrain. Runoff production within a grid square is controlled by its absorption capacity which is parameterised through a simple linkage function to the mean gradient in the square, as calculated from digital terrain data. This allows absorption capacity to be specified differently for every grid square in the catchment through the use of only two regional parameters and a DTM measurement of mean gradient for each square. An extension of this basic idea to consider the distribution of gradient within the square leads analytically

  8. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models to evaluate the uncertainty in runoff forecasting: the case study of Maggiore Lake basin (United States)

    Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.


    In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for hydrological purposes. The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. D-PHASE stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of the WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of WMO). It aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) was from 1 June to 30 November 2007. In this study the hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. D-PHASE hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 meteorological members, provided by COSMO-LEPS model (by ARPA Emilia-Romagna) with 5 day lead-time and a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Deterministic hydrological D-PHASE forecasts are provided by MOLOCH weather model (by ISAC-CNR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.2 km, nested into BOLAM, based on GFS initial and boundary conditions with 48 h lead-time. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The

  9. Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields (United States)

    Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang


    , with the SCS-CN model as a rainfall-runoff generator and the two-dimensional hydraulic model implementing the routing scheme for surface runoff; and (c) The spatial combination between crop yield losses and flood dynamics on a grid scale can be used to investigate the relationship between the intensity of flood characteristics and associated loss extent. The modeling framework was applied for a 50-year return period flood that occurred in Jilin province, Northeast China, which caused large agricultural losses in August 2013. The modeling results indicated that (a) the flow velocity was the most influential factor that caused spring corn, rice and soybean yield losses from extreme storm event in the mountainous regions; (b) the power function archived the best results that fit the velocity-loss relationship for mountainous areas; and (c) integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach are helpful for evaluating the influence of historical flood event on crop production and investigating the relationship between flood characteristics and crop yield losses.

  10. Snow water equivalent modeling components in NewAge-JGrass (United States)

    Formetta, G.; Kampf, S. K.; David, O.; Rigon, R.


    This paper presents a package of modified temperature-index-based snow water equivalent models as part of the hydrological modeling system NewAge-JGrass. Three temperature-based snow models are integrated into the NewAge-JGrass modeling system and use many of its components such as those for radiation balance (short wave radiation balance, SWRB), kriging (KRIGING), automatic calibration algorithms (particle swarm optimization) and tests of goodness of fit (NewAge-V), to build suitable modeling solutions (MS). Similarly to all the NewAge-JGrass components, the models can be executed both in raster and in vector mode. The simulation time step can be daily, hourly or sub-hourly, depending on user needs and availability of input data. The MS are applied on the Cache la Poudre River basin (CO, USA) using three test applications. First, daily snow water equivalent is simulated for three different measurement stations for two snow model formulations. Second, hourly snow water equivalent is simulated using all the three different snow model formulae. Finally, a raster mode application is performed to compute snow water equivalent maps for the whole Cache la Poudre Basin.

  11. Evaluating a microbial water quality prediction model for beach management under the revised EU Bathing Water Directive. (United States)

    Bedri, Zeinab; Corkery, Aisling; O'Sullivan, John J; Deering, Louise A; Demeter, Katalin; Meijer, Wim G; O'Hare, Gregory; Masterson, Bartholomew


    The revised Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) requires EU member states to minimise the risk to public health from faecal pollution at bathing waters through improved monitoring and management approaches. While increasingly sophisticated measurement methods (such as microbial source tracking) assist in the management of bathing water resources, the use of deterministic predictive models for this purpose, while having the potential to provide decision making support, remains less common. This study explores an integrated, deterministic catchment-coastal hydro-environmental model as a decision-making tool for beach management which, based on advance predictions of bathing water quality, can inform beach managers on appropriate management actions (to prohibit bathing or advise the public not to bathe) in the event of a poor water quality forecast. The model provides a 'moving window' five-day forecast of Escherichia coli levels at a bathing water compliance point off the Irish coast and the accuracy of bathing water management decisions were investigated for model predictions under two scenarios over the period from the 11th August to the 5th September, 2012. Decisions for Scenario 1 were based on model predictions where rainfall forecasts from a meteorological source ( were used to drive the rainfall-runoff processes in the catchment component of the model, and for Scenario 2, were based on predictions that were improved by incorporating real-time rainfall data from a sensor network within the catchment into the forecasted meteorological input data. The accuracy of the model in the decision-making process was assessed using the contingency table and its metrics. The predictive model gave reasonable outputs to support appropriate decision making for public health protection. Scenario 1 provided real-time predictions that, on 77% of instances during the study period where both predicted and E. coli concentrations were available, would correctly inform a

  12. Model.


    Zachary Patterson


    Social scientists appear to be divided into two camps: those who use models and those who do not. In order to understand this phenomenon, a clear understanding of what a model is is required. Unfortunately, this is more complicated than one might think. To be sure, few social scientists would have trouble identifying what they consider to be a model: defining what a model is, however, is more difficult. To echo Associate Justice Potter Stewart's famous quote about pornography, most social...

  13. Early Mars Climate Modeling and the Faint Young Sun Paradox. (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.


    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and precipitation falls as snowfall. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water from rainfall flowed on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and - possibly - seas and oceans. More recent observations by Curiosity in Gale crater hint that such conditions may have persited into the Hesperian. The implication is that early Mars had a wamer climate than it does today as a result of a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

  14. Volumetric runoff coefficients for experimental rural catchments in the Iberian Peninsula (United States)

    Taguas, Encarnación V.; Molina, Cecilio; Nadal-Romero, Estela; Ayuso, José L.; Casalí, Javier; Cid, Patricio; Dafonte, Jorge; Duarte, Antonio C.; Farguell, Joaquim; Giménez, Rafael; Giráldez, Juan V.; Gómez, Helena; Gómez, Jose A.; González-Hidalgo, J. Carlos; Keizer, J. Jacob; Lucía, Ana; Mateos, Luciano; Rodríguez-Blanco, M. Luz; Schnabel, Sussane; Serrano-Muela, M. Pilar


    Analysis of runoff and peaks therein is essential for designing hydraulic infrastructures and for assessing the hydrological implications of likely scenarios of climate and/or land-use change. Different methods are available to calculate runoff coefficients. For instance, the runoff coefficient of a catchment can be described either as the ratio of total depth of runoff to total depth of rainfall or as the ratio of peak flow to rainfall intensity for the time of concentration (Dhakal et al. 2012). If the first definition is considered, runoff coefficients represent the global effect of different features and states of catchments and its determination requires a suitable analysis according to the objectives pursued (Chow et al., 1988). In this work, rainfall-runoff data and physical attributes from small rural catchments located in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) were examined in order to compare the representative values of runoff coefficients using three different approaches: i) statistical analysis of rainfall-runoff data and their quantiles (Dhakal et al., 2012); ii) probabilistic runoff coefficients from the rank-ordered pairs of observed rainfall-runoff data and their relationships with rainfall depths (Schaake et al., 1967); iii) finally, a multiple linear model based on geomorphological attributes. These catchments exhibit great variety with respect to their natural settings, such as climate, topography and lithology. We present a preliminary analysis of the rainfall-runoff relationships as well as their variability in a complex context such as the Iberian Peninsula where contrasted environmental systems coexist. We also discuss reference parameters representing runoff coefficients commonly included into hydrological models. This study is conceived as the first step to explore further working protocols and modeling gaps in a very susceptible area to the climate change such as the Iberian Peninsula's, where the analysis of runoff coefficients is

  15. Computationally efficient and flexible modular modelling approach for river and urban drainage systems based on surrogate conceptual models (United States)

    Wolfs, Vincent; Willems, Patrick


    Water managers rely increasingly on mathematical simulation models that represent individual parts of the water system, such as the river, sewer system or waste water treatment plant. The current evolution towards integral water management requires the integration of these distinct components, leading to an increased model scale and scope. Besides this growing model complexity, certain applications gained interest and importance, such as uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, auto-calibration of models and real time control. All these applications share the need for models with a very limited calculation time, either for performing a large number of simulations, or a long term simulation followed by a statistical post-processing of the results. The use of the commonly applied detailed models that solve (part of) the de Saint-Venant equations is infeasible for these applications or such integrated modelling due to several reasons, of which a too long simulation time and the inability to couple submodels made in different software environments are the main ones. Instead, practitioners must use simplified models for these purposes. These models are characterized by empirical relationships and sacrifice model detail and accuracy for increased computational efficiency. The presented research discusses the development of a flexible integral modelling platform that complies with the following three key requirements: (1) Include a modelling approach for water quantity predictions for rivers, floodplains, sewer systems and rainfall runoff routing that require a minimal calculation time; (2) A fast and semi-automatic model configuration, thereby making maximum use of data of existing detailed models and measurements; (3) Have a calculation scheme based on open source code to allow for future extensions or the coupling with other models. First, a novel and flexible modular modelling approach based on the storage cell concept was developed. This approach divides each

  16. Using a thermal-based two source energy balance model with time-differencing to estimate surface energy fluxes with day-night MODIS observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, Radoslaw; Anderson, M.C.; Kustas, W.P.


    of geostationary satellites, and also exploits the higher spatial resolution provided by polar orbiting satellites. A method for estimating nocturnal surface fluxes and a scheme for estimating the fraction of green vegetation are developed and evaluated. Modification for green vegetation fraction leads...... satellites at sub-hourly temporal resolution. The DTD model has been applied primarily during the active growth phase of agricultural crops and rangeland vegetation grasses, and has not been rigorously evaluated during senescence or in forested ecosystems. In this paper we present modifications to the DTD...... to significantly improved estimation of the heat fluxes from the vegetation canopy during senescence and in forests. When the modified DTD model is run with LST measurements acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, generally satisfactory...

  17. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy) (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo


    , that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate adaptation. The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways. Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are facing in modern times - not only the 46.000 km2 Po valley, but all around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and economies. REFERENCES Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5), 2313-2332. Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347-348. Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140-161. Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment 521, 346-358.

  18. Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel-Christiansen, Carsten


    Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter......Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter...

  19. Runoff response for a peri-urban watershed in the Atlantic Forest Biome, southern Brazil, using the Kineros2 model (United States)

    Beling, F. A.; Dias de Paiva, J.; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, E. M.; Heatwole, C.


    Simulating the hydrologic response of a watershed for different scenarios is an important tool for assessing the rational use of the land and natural resources, especially in environments where urbanization is not ever an organized procedure. This study used the Kineros2 event oriented hydrological model to simulate the runoff response of a 4.9 km2 peri-urban basin located in the Atlantic Forest biome in Southern Brazil, with 47% of the area being impermeable. The goal of the simulations was to estimate the characteristic parameters of the soils and land cover of the watershed to then enable the prediction of basin response for different land uses. To acheive this objective, the responses of ten measured rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate five parameters of the model. The PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) package was used for automatic calibration of the model parameters. The quality of results is shown in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values varying from 0.64 up to 0.98, with an average value of 0.88. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow was 4.5% and 20.7% in the simulated runoff volume. A cross-validation using the same events used in the calibration and using average values of the calibrated parameters. gave Nash-Sutcliffe index values varying from 0.26 up to 0.92, with an average value of 0.73. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow and runoff volume were 22.7% and 25.6%, respectively. We used two validated events to simulate distinct scenarios, being representative of a wet and of dry antecedent moisture conditions. For a scenario of a totally forested land cover, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -53% and -46% respectively, and for a wet condition, -63% and -41% respectively, relatively to the present land use. For a complete pasture land use, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -31% and -27% respectively and

  20. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios. (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki


    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  1. Assessment of vulnerability in karst aquifers using a quantitative integrated numerical model: catchment characterization and high resolution monitoring - Application to semi-arid regions- Lebanon. (United States)

    Doummar, Joanna; Aoun, Michel; Andari, Fouad


    fast infiltration component. A series of laboratory tests were performed to acquire physical values to be used as a benchmark for model parameterization, such as laboratory tests on soils for conductivity at saturation and grain size analysis. Time series used for input or calibration were collected and computed from continuous high resolution monitoring of climatic data, moisture variation in the soil, and discharge at the investigated spring. This similar model approach used on a catchment site in Germany is to be applied and validated on two pilot karst catchments in Lebanon governed by semi-arid climatic conditions. References Doummar J., Sauter M., Geyer T., 2012. Simulation of flow processes in a large scale karst system with an integrated catchment model (Mike She) - Identification of relevant parameters influencing spring discharge. Journal of Hydrology, v. 426-427- p 112-123. Jukić, D., and Denić-Jukić, V., 2009. Groundwater balance estimation in karst by using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Journal of Hydrology, v. 373- p 302-315

  2. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P


    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  3. model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    distress, or culture—bound syndrome, not listed in DSM—lV. It may correspond to various DS/Vl-ll/ disorders, depending on its exact clinical presentation, e.g. dissociative disorder, adiustment disorder, or schizophrenia.1g As with other local idioms ot distress, the explanatory model takes precedence over the descriptive ...

  4. Modeling Lake Turkana Hydrology: Evaluating the potential hydrological impact of Gibe III reservoir on the Lake Turkana water levels using multi-source satellite data (United States)

    Velpuri, N.; Senay, G. B.


    Ethiopia is currently building the Gibe III hydroelectric dam on the Omo River, which supplies >80% of the inflows to Lake Turkana, Kenya. On completion, the Gibe III dam will be the tallest dam in Africa (height of 241 m) with a storage capacity of 14.5 billion m3. Arguably, this is one of the most controversial hydro-power projects in the region because the nature of interactions and potential impacts of the dam regulated flows on Lake Turkana are not well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable in situ hydrological datasets. In this research, we used a calibrated multi-source satellite data-driven water balance model for Lake Turkana that takes into account 12 years (1998-2009) of satellite rainfall, model routed runoff, lake/reservoir evapotranspiration, direct rain on lakes/reservoirs and releases from the dam to compute lake water levels. The model was used to evaluate the impact of the Gibe III dam using three different simple but robust approaches - a historical approach; a rainfall based sampling approach; and a non-parametric bootstrap resampling approach to generate rainfall-runoff scenarios. Modelling results indicate that, on average, the reservoir would take up to 8-10 months to reach minimum operation level of 201 m (initial impoundment period). During this period, the dam would regulate the lake inflows up to 50% and as a result the lake level would drop up to 2 m. However, after the initial impoundment period, due to releases from the dam, the rate of lake inflows would be around 10 m3/s less when compared to the rate without Gibe III (650 m3/s). Due to this, the lake levels will decline on average 1.5 m (3 m). Over the entire modeling period including the initial period of impoundment, the average rate of lake inflows due to Gibe III dam was estimated to be 500 m3/s. Results indicated that dam would also moderate the seasonal fluctuations in the lake. Areas along the Lake Turkana shoreline that are vulnerable to

  5. Modelling surface hydrology with DR2-SAGA 1.0: development of a user-friendly interface for hillslope water balance assessments (United States)

    López-Montero, Teresa; López-Vicente, Manuel; Navas, Ana


    Soil moisture variability and the depth of water stored in the arable layer of the soil are important topics in agricultural research and rangeland management. Additionally, runoff triggers soil detachment and sediment delivery, and thus is one of the most important factors in the soil erosion dynamic. Overland flow generation and accumulation are non-linear and scale-dependent processes and the development of prediction models helps researchers evaluate different scenarios at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we present the DR2-SAGA 1.0 module to the scientific community. The DR2 (Distributed Rainfall-Runoff) water balance model computes the depth of water stored within the soil profile (Waa) distinguishing five scenarios of the upslope contributing area, infiltration processes and climatic parameters, and assesses the soil moisture status (SMS) throughout the year for an average monthly rainfall event. The SAGA program is a free Geographical Information System (GIS) with support for vector and, specially, raster data. Its foundation is its Application Programming Interface (API), which provides data object models and basic definitions for the programming of scientific modules. Module libraries contain the scientific methods and are developed using C++ code. The new module was run in a medium size mountain Mediterranean catchment (246 ha; Spanish Central Pre-Pyrenees) at high spatial resolution (5 x 5 meters of cell size). The Estaña Lakes Catchment is affected by karstic processes which explain the presence of 15 endorheic sub-catchments and three fresh-water lakes. Additionally, this area is ungauged and offers the opportunity to test the performance of the new module in a non-conventional landscape. DR2-SAGA 1.0 demands 16 inputs and generates monthly and annual maps of initial and effective runoff depth, Waa and SMS. One user-friendly tab was created with SAGA 2.0.8 for each input and output file. The new module also includes a water

  6. Potentials of mathematical modeling and use of GIS in catchment management and the benefits for the Water Framework Directive fulfilling (United States)

    Dostal, T.; Krasa, J.


    - to estimate phosphorus loads from non-point sources and to define potential prevention measures in most endangered areas. The map is nowadays accessible for any Czech region at the internet as a WMS link. It can be easily downloaded from national metadata portal using a key word „eroze"to search for the map. This map can be easily updated using high precision soil map (1:5000 scale) existing for the whole Czech territory. Unfortunately the soil map was not available for the recent assessment. Next example of application, generation of the map of rainfall-runoff conditions for sub catchments with area of ca 5 - 10 km2 can be mentioned. This Map classifies individual sub catchments according to their surface runoff production as response to causal rainfall event (Vrana et al, 2004). This material helps since 2004 for decision making related to state financial subsidy policy for flood control prevention in upper parts of the catchments. Related example are also Assessments of retention capacity of riverine floodplains or urban areas flood risk by surface runoff from agricultural land, which are recently processed for entire territory of The Czech Republic. One of the basic obstructions for wider implementation of simulation models and other mathematic-based tools in practice and especially for decision making support is relatively weak coordination within EU countries. There exist valid and relatively strict regulative on entire EU level on one hand, but the methods, which should be used to determine fixed values and limits are not specified properly. The approach within individual countries is very different regarding to both of methodologies recommended or accepted and input data availability for desired calculations and designs. The third problem is insufficient foreknowledge of important decision makers (local governments and state authorities) about current state of the art in mathematical modeling and GIS application in watershed and water

  7. Predicting Surface Runoff from Catchment to Large Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Li


    Full Text Available Predicting surface runoff from catchment to large region is a fundamental and challenging task in hydrology. This paper presents a comprehensive review for various studies conducted for improving runoff predictions from catchment to large region in the last several decades. This review summarizes the well-established methods and discusses some promising approaches from the following four research fields: (1 modeling catchment, regional and global runoff using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, and land surface models, (2 parameterizing hydrological models in ungauged catchments, (3 improving hydrological model structure, and (4 using new remote sensing precipitation data.

  8. Basin-scale relations via conditioning (United States)

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.; Guertin, D.P.


    A rainfall-runoff model is used in conjunction with a probabilistic description of the input to this model to obtain simple regression-like relations for basin runoff in terms of basin and storm characteristics. These relations, similar to those sought in regionalization studies, are computed by evaluating the conditional distribution of model output given basin and storm characteristics. This method of conditioning provides a general way of examining model sensitivity to various components of model input. The resulting relations may be expected to resemble corresponding relations obtained by regionalization using actual runoff to the extent that the rainfall-runoff model and the model input specification are physically realistic. The probabilistic description of model input is an extension of so-called "random-model" of channel networks and involves postulating an ensemble of basins and associated probability distributions that mimic the variability of basin characteristics seen in nature. Application is made to small basins in the State of Wyoming. Parameters of the input variable distribution are estimated using data from Wyoming, and basin-scale relations are estimated both, parametrically and nonparametrically using model-generated runoff from simulated basins. Resulting basin-scale relations involving annual flood quantiles are in reasonable agreement with those presented in a previous regionalization study, but error estimates are smaller than those in the previous study, an artifact of the simplicity of the rainfall-runoff model used in this paper. We also obtain relations for peak of the instantaneous unit hydrograph which agree fairly well with theoretical relations given in the literature. Finally, we explore the issues of sensitivity of basin-scale, relations and error estimates to parameterization of the model input probability distribution and of how this sensitivity is related to making inferences about a particular ungaged basin. ?? 1989 Springer-Verlag.

  9. A 2D simulation model for urban flood management (United States)

    Price, Roland; van der Wielen, Jonathan; Velickov, Slavco; Galvao, Diogo


    keep it as large as possible while maintaining the stability of the flow calculations; -Operate on a square grid at any resolution while retaining at least some details of the ground topography of the basic grid, the storage, and the form roughness and conveyance of the ground surface; -Account for the overall average ground slope for particular coarse cells; -Have the facility to refine the grid locally; -Have the facility to treat ponds or lakes as single, irregular cells; -Permit prescribed inflows and arbitrary outflows across the boundaries of the model domain or internally, and sources and sinks at any interior cell; -Simulate runoff for spatial rainfall while permitting infiltration; -Use ground surface cover and soil type indices to determine surface roughness, interception and infiltration parameters; -Present results at the basic cell level; -Have the facility to begin a model run with monitored soil moisture data; -Have the facility to hot-start a simulation using dumped data from a previous simulation; -Operate with a graphics cards for parallel processing; -Have the facility to link directly to the urban drainage simulation software such as SWMM through an Open Modelling Interface; -Be linked to the Netherlands national rainfall database for continuous simulation of rainfall-runoff for particular polders and urban areas; -Make the engine available as Open Source together with benchmark datasets; PriceXD forms a key modelling component of an integrated urban water management system consisting of an on-line database and a number of complementary modelling systems for urban hydrology, groundwater, potable water distribution, wastewater and stormwater drainage (separate and combined sewerage), wastewater treatment, and surface channel networks. This will be a 'plug and play' system. By linking the models together, confidence in the accuracy of the above-ground damage and construction costs is comparable to the below-ground costs. What is more, PriceXD can be

  10. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2) (United States)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric


    but also evapotranspiration process. However changes in total precipitation are highly uncertain. The six tested rainfall-runoff models project reduced flows, especially in the spring and summer seasons. Depending on the socio-economic scenarios and the area, the downstream total water needs could decrease or remain stable. Considering the present day constraints, these changes would lead to a decrease in energy production (mainly due to reduced annual inflows) and to less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand. Results of the R²D² 2050 project suggest also that the downscaling methods still fail to reproduce some crucial aspects of the climate at regional scale. Unexpected biases are propagated along the chain of models. The key issue to simulate accurately reservoir operations under present and future climate conditions is the filling curves that depict the balance between water supply and demand. Probabilistic filling curves were calibrated here to meet the constraint on water level in summer objective nine years over ten. A large proportion of regional climates generated over the baseline period lead to unrealistic curves, pointing out higher levels of requirement in models output to assess global change impacts on water management systems like on the Durance River basin.

  11. Impacts of Climate Change On River Basin Hyrology (United States)

    Hartmann, G.; Bárdossy, A.

    Climate change will impact water resources. However, the extent of this proposed im- pact depends very much on the tools that are used to determinate the impact. There are uncertainties on different levels: different GCMs model different large scale at- mospheric variables, there are different possibilities to downscale these information to local weather parameters and different hydrological model variations (parameters) will result in different runoff values. In this study the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of the Neckar catchment, a medium scale river in Southern Germany, is investigated. Main aim is to assess possible impacts on the water budget and the occurrence of extreme situ- ations (floods and droughts) at a medium time scale (referring to several decades). Therefore, a coupled precipitation/temperature downscaling model is used to generate different input series for the hydrological model. This downscaling is performed both for observed and GCM modelled large scale atmospheric variables. Then, a rainfall- runoff-model is applied to represent the hydrological conditions of the catchment. A modified version of the HBV-Model is used for rainfall-runoff-modelling and for the subsequent calculation of the water balance. As a first step, observed climate series are used to calibrate and to validate the rainfall- runoff-model. The resulting values are then compared to the results obtained by use of the downscaled GCM variables as input. Then, a doubled CO2-scenario is established and the predictions about the impact of climate change on the local weather parame- ters and changes in the hydrological regime are evaluated. Results based on observed large scale features and GCM control runs and doubled CO2-scenarios are compared. Main focus is to assess the magnitude and direction of changes in the water balance, the lengths of low-flow periods, the magnitude and timing of flood peaks and differ- ences in the water storage volume. Possible

  12. TOPMODEL simulations of streamflow and depth to water table in Fishing Brook Watershed, New York, 2007-09 (United States)

    Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Burns, Douglas A.


    TOPMODEL, a physically based, variable-source area rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate streamflow and depth to water table for the period January 2007-September 2009 in the 65.6 square kilometers of Fishing Brook Watershed in northern New York. The Fishing Brook Watershed is located in the headwaters of the Hudson River and is predominantly forested with a humid, cool continental climate. The motivation for applying this model at Fishing Brook was to provide a simulation that would be effective later at this site in modeling the interaction of hydrologic processes with mercury dynamics.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Antoszewski


    Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of designing an open reservoirs with a capacity of about 100 000 m3 in heavily urbanized areas of anthropogenically transformed natural watercourses with numerous outlets drainage and large sealed surfaces runoff. In particular the issues of the hydrological basics design based on the meteorological data in the catchment uncontrolled water level checkpoints with particular emphasis on the tools of computer-aided modeling of hydrological processes (HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS and available for use mathematical models and statistical rainfall-runoff, this practical the method SCS-CN and linear model cascade tanks Nash to transform the effective precipitation in surface runoff.

  14. Discharge prediction in the Upper Senegal River using remote sensing data (United States)

    Ceccarini, Iacopo; Raso, Luciano; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Nijzink, Remko; Bodian, Ansoumana; Claps, Pierluigi


    The Upper Senegal River, West Africa, is a poorly gauged basin. Nevertheless, discharge predictions are required in this river for the optimal operation of the downstream Manantali reservoir, flood forecasting, development plans for the entire basin and studies for adaptation to climate change. Despite the need for reliable discharge predictions, currently available rainfall-runoff models for this basin provide only poor performances, particularly during extreme regimes, both low-flow and high-flow. In this research we develop a rainfall-runoff model that combines remote-sensing input data and a-priori knowledge on catchment physical characteristics. This semi-distributed model, is based on conceptual numerical descriptions of hydrological processes at the catchment scale. Because of the lack of reliable input data from ground observations, we use the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) remote-sensing data for precipitation and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) for the terrestrial potential evaporation. The model parameters are selected by a combination of calibration, by match of observed output and considering a large set of hydrological signatures, as well as a-priori knowledge on the catchment. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to choose the most likely range in which the parameter sets belong. Analysis of different experiments enhances our understanding on the added value of distributed remote-sensing data and a-priori information in rainfall-runoff modelling. Results of this research will be used for decision making at different scales, contributing to a rational use of water resources in this river.

  15. Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest O. Asare


    Full Text Available An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weatherdriven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

  16. Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa. (United States)

    Asare, Ernest O; Tompkins, Adrian M; Amekudzi, Leonard K; Ermert, Volker; Redl, Robert


    An energy budget model is developed to predict water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weatherdriven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

  17. Integrated flash flood analysis in ungauged watersheds. (United States)

    Grillakis, M. G.; Tsanis, I. K.


    Reconstruction of flash flood events processes in ungauged basins requires a synthesis of alternative information sources to compensate for the absence data. The present study presents the combination of information from very high resolution Digital Elevation Models (VHR-DEM), intensive post event surveys and rainfall-runoff modeling in order to reconstruct the flash flood processes for the event of October 17, 2006 in Almirida basin. The VHR-DEM produced by a GeoEye-1 0.5 m resolution satellite stereo-pair is assessed for flood plain management applications such as watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction. The procedure is applied at the 25km2 watershed of Almirida. Cross sections and watershed boundary extracted based on the generated high resolution DEM used for rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling. The synoptic meteorological analysis shows the dynamic evolution and the path of the storm that led to the flash flood event, while METEOSAT imagery reveals critical information about the structure and timing of the storm. Precipitation time series is generated from neighbouring rain-gauges and C-Band weather radar data. A post flood event field study produced evidence for peak flood stage and allowed for key cross section measurements, while interviews with eye witnesses revealed the exact timing of the peak stage. Semi-distributed and lumped hydrological/hydraulic models are applied to simulate the runoff and are calibrated on the witnessed peak stage values. Results shows, that the combination of information from post event surveys, VHR-DEMs and rainfall-runoff modeling can decrease the uncertainty in peak discharge estimation and event interpretation.

  18. Sediment transport following water transfer from Yangtze River to Taihu Basin


    Gong, Zheng; Chang-kuan ZHANG; Cheng-biao ZUO; Wei-deng WU


    To meet the increasing need of fresh water and to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake, water transfer from the Yangtze River was initiated in 2002. This study was performed to investigate the sediment distribution along the river course following water transfer. A rainfall-runoff model was first built to calculate the runoff of the Taihu Basin in 2003. Then, the flow patterns of river networks were simulated using a one-dimensional river network hydrodynamic model. Based on the boundary c...

  19. Temporal Resolution in Time Series and Probabilistic Models of Renewable Power Systems (United States)

    Hoevenaars, Eric

    There are two main types of logistical models used for long-term performance prediction of autonomous power systems: time series and probabilistic. Time series models are more common and are more accurate for sizing storage systems because they are able to track the state of charge. However, the computational time is usually greater than for probabilistic models. It is common for time series models to perform 1-year simulations with a 1-hour time step. This is likely because of the limited availability of high resolution data and the increase in computation time with a shorter time step. Computation time is particularly important because these types of models are often used for component size optimization which requires many model runs. This thesis includes a sensitivity analysis examining the effect of the time step on these simulations. The results show that it can be significant, though it depends on the system configuration and site characteristics. Two probabilistic models are developed to estimate the temporal resolution error of a 1-hour simulation: a time series/probabilistic model and a fully probabilistic model. To demonstrate the application of and evaluate the performance of these models, two case studies are analyzed. One is for a typical residential system and one is for a system designed to provide on-site power at an aquaculture site. The results show that the time series/probabilistic model would be a useful tool if accurate distributions of the sub-hour data can be determined. Additionally, the method of cumulant arithmetic is demonstrated to be a useful technique for incorporating multiple non-Gaussian random variables into a probabilistic model, a feature other models such as Hybrid2 currently do not have. The results from the fully probabilistic model showed that some form of autocorrelation is required to account for seasonal and diurnal trends.

  20. Impact of High Resolution Emissions Processing on Neighborhood Scale Air Quality Modeling: A case study over the Konkuk University Complex Testbed, Seoul, Korea (United States)

    YU, J.; Woo, J.; Kim, Y.; Quan, S.; Kim, J.; Park, S.


    As a city is urbanized, landscapes are getting more complex due to the construction of high-rise buildings and emission patterns are changing more quickly due to variable activities. Micro-scale air pollution management over complex megacities is getting more important to protect human health effectively. A Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model is useful tool to design and assess complex micro-scale air quality management schemes. The conventional modeling emission inventories, however, are not detail enough to support such a fine-scale modeling. In this study, we developed a micro-scale emission processing scheme in support of micro-scale air quality modeling, which includes sub-kilometer grid spatial allocation, sub-hour temporal allocation, and vertical emissions gridding. For horizontal gridding, 3D building files over the testbed was used to allocate emission to 20m grid. The traffic monitoring-based temporal allocation of emissions and vertical emissions allocation by different heating types (i.e. central vs. individual heating) were conducted in support of air quality modeling. CFD based air quality modeling experiment with and without fine scale emissions processing were conducted to understand the influences. Impact of the new micro-scale modeling emissions on the performance of CFD-based air quality modeling will be presented.

  1. airGR: a suite of lumped hydrological models in an R-package (United States)

    Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Delaigue, Olivier; Andréassian, Vazken; Thirel, Guillaume


    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2015), called airGR, to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A (Mouehli et al., 2006), - the monthly GR2M (Mouehli, 2003) models, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), GR5J (Le Moine, 2008) and GR6J (Pushpalatha et al., 2011), - the hourly GR4H model (Mathevet, 2005), - a degree-day snow module CemaNeige (Valéry et al., 2014). The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithms selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is already used for educational purposes. The presentation will detail the main functionalities of the package and present a case

  2. Sensitivity of the Regional Arctic System Model surface climate to ice-ocean state (United States)

    Roberts, A.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J.; Higgins, M.; Hughes, M. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Nijssen, B.


    The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) is a high-resolution Earth System model extending across the Arctic Ocean, its marginal seas, the Arctic drainage basin, and including the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Arctic domain. RASM uses the flux coupler (CPL7) within the Community Earth System Model framework to couple regional configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), Parallel Ocean Program (POP), Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE), and Variable Infiltration Capacity land hydrology model (VIC). Work is also underway to incorporate the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) as well as glacier, ice cap and dynamic vegetation models. As part of RASM development, coupled simulations are being prepared for the CORDEX Arctic domain, which is unique among CORDEX regions by being centered over the ocean. Up to this point, there has been uncertainty over how much initial and surface conditions in the ice-ocean boundary layer influence the surface climate of the Arctic in RASM, relative to regional atmospheric model constraints, such as spectral nudging and boundary conditions. We present results that suggest there is a significant dependency on the initial sea ice conditions on decadal timescales within RASM. This has important implications for (i) how results from different regional artic models may be combined and compared in CORDEX and (ii) appropriate methods for ensemble generation in regional polar models. We will also present results illustrating the influence of sub-hourly sea ice deformation on decadal climate in RASM, highlighting an important reason why fully coupled and high-resolution regional models are essential for regional Arctic downscaling.

  3. Distributed modeling of radiocesium washoff from the experimental watershed plots of the Fukushima fallout zone (United States)

    Kivva, Sergei; Zheleznyak, Mark; Konoplev, Alexei; Nanba, Kenji; Onda, Yuichi; Wakiyama Yoshifumi Wakiyama, Yoshifumi


    The distributed hydrological "rainfall- runoff" models provide possibilities of the physically based simulation of surface and subsurface flow on watersheds based on the GIS processed data. The success of such modeling approaches for the predictions of the runoff and soil erosion provides a basis for the implementation of the distributed models of the radionuclide washoff from the watersheds. The field studies provided on the Chernobyl and Fukushima catchments provides a unique data sets for the comparative testing and improvements of the modeling tools for the watersheds located in the areas of the very different geographical and hydro-meteorological condition The set of USLE experimental plots has been established by CRIED, University of Tsukuba after the Fukushima accident to study soil erosion and 137Cs wash off from the watersheds (Onda et al, 2014). The distributed watershed models of surface and subsurface flow, sediment and radionuclide transport has been used to simulate the radionuclide transport in the basin Dnieper River, Ukraine and the watersheds of Prefecture Fuksuhima. DHSVM-R is extension of the distributed hydrological model DHSVM (Lettenmayer, Wigmosta et al, 1996-2014) by the including into it the module of the watershed radionuclide transport. DHSVM is a physically based, distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain based on the numerical solution of the network of one-dimensional equations. The surface flow submodel of DHSMV has been modified: four-directions schematization for the model's cells has been replaced by the eight-directions scheme, more numerically efficient finite -differences scheme was implemented. The new module of radionuclide wash-off from catchment and transport via stream network in soluble phase and on suspended sediments including bottom-water exchange processes was developed for DHSMV-R. DHSVM-R was implemented recently within Swedish- Ukrainian ENSURE project for the modeling of 234U wash-off from the

  4. Affordable and personalized lighting using inverse modeling and virtual sensors (United States)

    Basu, Chandrayee; Chen, Benjamin; Richards, Jacob; Dhinakaran, Aparna; Agogino, Alice; Martin, Rodney


    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) have great potential to enable personalized intelligent lighting systems while reducing building energy use by 50%-70%. As a result WSN systems are being increasingly integrated in state-ofart intelligent lighting systems. In the future these systems will enable participation of lighting loads as ancillary services. However, such systems can be expensive to install and lack the plug-and-play quality necessary for user-friendly commissioning. In this paper we present an integrated system of wireless sensor platforms and modeling software to enable affordable and user-friendly intelligent lighting. It requires ⇠ 60% fewer sensor deployments compared to current commercial systems. Reduction in sensor deployments has been achieved by optimally replacing the actual photo-sensors with real-time discrete predictive inverse models. Spatially sparse and clustered sub-hourly photo-sensor data captured by the WSN platforms are used to develop and validate a piece-wise linear regression of indoor light distribution. This deterministic data-driven model accounts for sky conditions and solar position. The optimal placement of photo-sensors is performed iteratively to achieve the best predictability of the light field desired for indoor lighting control. Using two weeks of daylight and artificial light training data acquired at the Sustainability Base at NASA Ames, the model was able to predict the light level at seven monitored workstations with 80%-95% accuracy. We estimate that 10% adoption of this intelligent wireless sensor system in commercial buildings could save 0.2-0.25 quads BTU of energy nationwide.

  5. A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged UK Catchments (United States)

    Giani, Giulia; Woods, Ross


    The standard regression-based method for estimating the median annual flood in ungauged UK catchments has a high standard error (95% confidence interval is +/- a factor of 2). This is also the dominant source of uncertainty in statistical estimates of the 100-year flood. Similarly large uncertainties have been reported elsewhere. These large uncertainties make it difficult to do reliable flood design estimates for ungauged catchments. If the uncertainty could be reduced, flood protection schemes could be made significantly more cost-effective. Here we report on attempts to develop a new practical method for flood estimation in ungauged UK catchments, by making more use of knowledge about rainfall-runoff processes. Building on recent research on the seasonality of flooding, we first classify more than 1000 UK catchments into groups according to the seasonality of extreme rainfall and floods, and infer possible causal mechanisms for floods (e.g. Berghuijs et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016). For each group we are developing simplified rainfall-runoff-routing relationships (e.g. Viglione et al, Journal of Hydrology, 2010) which can account for spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and flood processes, as well as channel network routing effects. An initial investigation by Viglione et al suggested that the relationship between rainfall amount and flood peak could be summarised through a dimensionless response number that represents the product of the event runoff coefficient and a measure of hydrograph peakedness. Our hypothesis is that this approach is widely applicable, and can be used as the basis for flood estimation. Using subdaily and daily rainfall-runoff data for more than 1000 catchments, we identify a subset of catchments in the west of the UK where floods are generated predominantly in winter through the coincidence of heavy rain and low soil moisture deficits. Floods in these catchments can reliably be simulated with simple rainfall-runoff

  6. Comparison of different forms of the Multi-layer Feed-Forward Neural Network method used for river flow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Y. Shamseldin


    Full Text Available The Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network (MLFFNN is applied in the context of river flow forecast combination, where a number of rainfall-runoff models are used simultaneously to produce an overall combined river flow forecast. The operation of the MLFFNN depends not only on its neuron configuration but also on the choice of neuron transfer function adopted, which is non-linear for the hidden and output layers. These models, each having a different structure to simulate the perceived mechanisms of the runoff process, utilise the information carrying capacity of the model calibration data in different ways. Hence, in a discharge forecast combination procedure, the discharge forecasts of each model provide a source of information different from that of the other models used in the combination. In the present work, the significance of the choice of the transfer function type in the overall performance of the MLFFNN, when used in the river flow forecast combination context, is investigated critically. Five neuron transfer functions are used in this investigation, namely, the logistic function, the bipolar function, the hyperbolic tangent function, the arctan function and the scaled arctan function. The results indicate that the logistic function yields the best model forecast combination performance. Keywords: River flow forecast combination, multi-layer feed-forward neural network, neuron transfer functions, rainfall-runoff models

  7. Methodology for Establishment of Integrated Flood Analysis System (United States)

    Kim, B.; Sanders, B. F.; Kim, K.; Han, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.


    Flood risk management efforts face considerable uncertainty in flood hazard delineation as a consequence of changing climatic conditions including shifts in precipitation, soil moisture, and land uses. These changes can confound efforts to characterize flood impacts over decadal time scales and thus raise questions about the true benefits and drawbacks of alternative flood management projects including those of a structural and non-structural nature. Here we report an integrated flood analysis system that is designed to bring climate change information into flood risk context and characterize flood hazards in both rural and urban areas. Distributed rainfall-runoff model, one-dimensional (1D) NWS-FLDWAV model, 1D Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and two-dimensional (2D) BreZo model are coupled. Distributed model using the multi-directional flow allocation and real time updating is used for rainfall-runoff analysis in ungauged watershed and its outputs are taken as boundary conditions to the FLDWAV model which was employed for 1D river hydraulic routing and predicting the overflow discharge at levees which were overtopped. In addition, SWMM is chosen to analyze storm sewer flow in urban areas and BreZo is used to estimate the inundation zones, depths and velocities due to the surcharge flow at sewer system or overflow at levees on the land surface. The overflow at FLDWAV or surcharged flow at SWMM becomes point sources in BreZo. Applications in Korea and California are presented.

  8. Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members – Part 2: Generalization in time and space

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    D. Brochero


    Full Text Available An uncertainty cascade model applied to stream flow forecasting seeks to evaluate the different sources of uncertainty of the complex rainfall-runoff process. The current trend focuses on the combination of Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems (MEPS and hydrological model(s. However, the number of members of such a HEPS may rapidly increase to a level that may not be operationally sustainable. This paper evaluates the generalization ability of a simplification scheme of a 800-member HEPS formed by the combination of 16 lumped rainfall-runoff models with the 50 perturbed members from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF EPS. Tests are made at two levels. At the local level, the transferability of the 9th day hydrological member selection for the other 8 forecast horizons exhibits an 82% success rate. The other evaluation is made at the regional or cluster level, the transferability from one catchment to another from within a cluster of watersheds also leads to a good performance (85% success rate, especially for forecast time horizons above 3 days and when the basins that formed the cluster presented themselves a good performance on an individual basis. Diversity, defined as hydrological model complementarity addressing different aspects of a forecast, was identified as the critical factor for proper selection applications.

  9. Hydrological Impacts of Urbanization of Two Catchments in Harare, Zimbabwe

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    Webster Gumindoga


    Full Text Available By increased rural-urban migration in many African countries, the assessment of changes in catchment hydrologic responses due to urbanization is critical for water resource planning and management. This paper assesses hydrological impacts of urbanization on two medium-sized Zimbabwean catchments (Mukuvisi and Marimba for which changes in land cover by urbanization were determined through Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM images for the years 1986, 1994 and 2008. Impact assessments were done through hydrological modeling by a topographically driven rainfall-runoff model (TOPMODEL. A satellite remote sensing based ASTER 30 metre Digital Elevation Model (DEM was used to compute the Topographic Index distribution, which is a key input to the model. Results of land cover classification indicated that urban areas increased by more than 600 % in the Mukuvisi catchment and by more than 200 % in the Marimba catchment between 1986 and 2008. Woodlands decreased by more than 40% with a greater decrease in Marimba than Mukuvisi catchment. Simulations using TOPMODEL in Marimba and Mukuvisi catchments indicated streamflow increases of 84.8 % and 73.6 %, respectively, from 1980 to 2010. These increases coincided with decreases in woodlands and increases in urban areas for the same period. The use of satellite remote sensing data to observe urbanization trends in semi-arid catchments and to represent catchment land surface characteristics proved to be effective for rainfall-runoff modeling. Findings of this study are of relevance for many African cities, which are experiencing rapid urbanization but often lack planning and design.

  10. Potential of ASCAT Soil Moisture Product to Improve Runoff Prediction (United States)

    Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T.; Wagner, W.; Naeimi, V.; Bartalis, Z.; Hasenauer, S.


    The role and the importance of soil moisture for meteorological, agricultural and hydrological applications is widely known. Remote sensing offers the unique capability to monitor soil moisture over large areas (catchment scale) with, nowadays, a temporal resolution suitable for hydrological purposes. However, the accuracy of the remotely sensed soil moisture estimates have to be carefully checked. Therefore, the assessment of the effects of assimilating satellite- derived soil moisture estimates into rainfall-runoff models at different scales and over different regions represents an important scientific and operational issue. In this context, the soil wetness index (SWI) product derived from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) sensor was tested in this study. The SWI was firstly compared with the soil moisture temporal pattern derived from a continuous rainfall-runoff model (MISDc). Then, by using a simple data assimilation technique, the SWI was assimilated into MISDc and the model performance on flood estimation was analyzed. Moreover, three synthetic experiments considering errors on rainfall, model parameters and initial soil wetness conditions were carried out. These experiments allowed to further investigate the SWI potential when uncertain conditions take place.The most significant flood events, which occurred in the period 2000-2009 for five subcatchments of the Upper Tiber River in central Italy, ranging in extension between 100 and 650 km2, were used as case studies. Results reveal that the SWI derived from the ASCAT sensor can be conveniently used to improve runoff prediction in the study area, mainly if the initial soil wetness conditions are unknown.

  11. Energy-Water-Land-Climate Nexus: Modeling Impacts from the Asset to Regional Scale (United States)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.; Behery, S.; Macknick, J.; Corning-Padilla, A.; Brinkman, G.; Meng, M.


    A critical challenge for the energy-water-land nexus is understanding and modeling the connection between the natural system—including changes in climate, land use/cover, and streamflow—and the engineered system including water for energy, agriculture, and society. Equally important is understanding the linkage across scales; that is, how impacts at the asset level aggregate to influence behavior at the local to regional scale. Toward this need, a case study was conducted featuring multi-sector and multi-scale modeling centered on the San Juan River basin (a watershed that accounts for one-tenth of the Colorado River drainage area). Simulations were driven by statistically downscaled climate data from three global climate models (emission scenario RCP 8.5) and planned growth in regional water demand. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was fitted with a custom vegetation mortality sub-model and used to estimate tributary inflows to the San Juan River and estimate reservoir evaporation. San Juan River operations, including releases from Navajo Reservoir, were subsequently modeled using RiverWare to estimate impacts on water deliveries out to the year 2100. Major water demands included two large coal-fired power plants, a local electric utility, river-side irrigation, the Navajo Indian Irrigation Project and instream flows managed for endangered aquatic species. Also tracked were basin exports, including water (downstream flows to the Colorado River and interbasin transfers to the Rio Grande) and interstate electric power transmission. Implications for the larger western electric grid were assessed using PLEXOS, a sub-hourly dispatch, electric production-cost model. Results highlight asset-level interactions at the energy-water-land nexus driven by climate and population dynamics; specifically, growing vulnerabilities to shorted water deliveries. Analyses also explored linkages across geographic scales from the San Juan to the larger

  12. Learned lessons from uncertainty assessment of monthly runoff using different methods to establish reservoir inflows (United States)

    Domínguez, Efraín; Martínez, Juan; Caicedo, Fabian; Chavarro, John; Velasco, Andrés; Méndez, Zulma; Cardenas, Eder


    The time series of monthly runoff are critical information for the management of hydro-power reservoirs. This experience presents the learned lessons from the uncertainty assessment of reservoirs inflows for different hydro-power damps in Colombia. Rainfall-runoff models, water balance and hydrometry methods, with different data requirements, were used to esta