WorldWideScience

Sample records for strongly predicted future

  1. Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

    2003-06-01

    The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

  2. Strongly lensed neutral hydrogen emission: detection predictions with current and future radio interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, R. P.; Obreschkow, D.; Heywood, I.

    2015-09-01

    Strong gravitational lensing provides some of the deepest views of the Universe, enabling studies of high-redshift galaxies only possible with next-generation facilities without the lensing phenomenon. To date, 21-cm radio emission from neutral hydrogen has only been detected directly out to z ˜ 0.2, limited by the sensitivity and instantaneous bandwidth of current radio telescopes. We discuss how current and future radio interferometers such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will detect lensed H I emission in individual galaxies at high redshift. Our calculations rely on a semi-analytic galaxy simulation with realistic H I discs (by size, density profile and rotation), in a cosmological context, combined with general relativistic ray tracing. Wide-field, blind H I surveys with the SKA are predicted to be efficient at discovering lensed H I systems, increasingly so at z ≳ 2. This will be enabled by the combination of the magnification boosts, the steepness of the H I luminosity function at the high-mass end, and the fact that the H I spectral line is relatively isolated in frequency. These surveys will simultaneously provide a new technique for foreground lens selection and yield the highest redshift H I emission detections. More near term (and existing) cm-wave facilities will push the high-redshift H I envelope through targeted surveys of known lenses.

  3. CN earthquake prediction algorithm and the monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    The strong earthquakes originating at intermediate-depth in the Vrancea region (located in the SE corner of the highly bent Carpathian arc) represent one of the most important natural disasters able to induce heavy effects (high tool of casualties and extensive damage) in the Romanian territory. The occurrence of these earthquakes is irregular, but not infrequent. Their effects are felt over a large territory, from Central Europe to Moscow and from Greece to Scandinavia. The largest cultural and economical center exposed to the seismic risk due to the Vrancea earthquakes is Bucharest. This metropolitan area (230 km 2 wide) is characterized by the presence of 2.5 million inhabitants (10% of the country population) and by a considerable number of high-risk structures and infrastructures. The best way to face strong earthquakes is to mitigate the seismic risk by using the two possible complementary approaches represented by (a) the antiseismic design of structures and infrastructures (able to support strong earthquakes without significant damage), and (b) the strong earthquake prediction (in terms of alarm intervals declared for long, intermediate or short-term space-and time-windows). The intermediate term medium-range earthquake prediction represents the most realistic target to be reached at the present state of knowledge. The alarm declared in this case extends over a time window of about one year or more, and a space window of a few hundreds of kilometers. In the case of Vrancea events the spatial uncertainty is much less, being of about 100 km. The main measures for the mitigation of the seismic risk allowed by the intermediate-term medium-range prediction are: (a) verification of the buildings and infrastructures stability and reinforcement measures when required, (b) elaboration of emergency plans of action, (c) schedule of the main actions required in order to restore the normality of the social and economical life after the earthquake. The paper presents the

  4. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  5. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  6. A single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid presence and size is strongly predictive of future uterine procedure: 8-year follow-up of randomly sampled premenopausal women aged 35-49 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, D D; Saldana, T M; Shore, D L; Hill, M C; Schectman, J M

    2015-12-01

    How well can a single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid burden (presence or absence of fibroids and size of largest, if present) predict future probability of having a major uterine procedure? During an 8-year follow-up period, the risk of having a major uterine procedure was 2% for those without fibroids and increased with fibroid size for those with fibroids, reaching 47% for those with fibroids ≥ 4 cm in diameter at baseline. Uterine fibroids are a leading indication for hysterectomy. However, when fibroids are found, there are few available data to help clinicians advise patients about disease progression. Women who were 35-49 years old were randomly selected from the membership of a large urban health plan; 80% of those determined to be eligible were enrolled and screened with ultrasound for fibroids ≥ 0.5 cm in diameter. African-American and white premenopausal participants who responded to at least one follow-up interview (N = 964, 85% of those eligible) constituted the study cohort. During follow-up (5822 person-years), participants self-reported any major uterine procedure (67% hysterectomies). Life-table analyses and Cox regression (with censoring for menopause) were used to estimate the risk of having a uterine procedure for women with no fibroids, small (women, importance of a clinical diagnosis of fibroids prior to study enrollment, and the impact of submucosal fibroids on risk were investigated. There was a greater loss to follow-up for African-Americans than whites (19 versus 11%). For those with follow-up data, 64% had fibroids at baseline, 33% of whom had had a prior diagnosis. Of those with fibroids, 27% had small fibroids (women during follow-up. The estimated risk of having a procedure in any given year of follow-up for those with fibroids compared with those without fibroids increased markedly with fibroid-size category (from 4-fold, confidence interval (CI) (1.4-11.1) for the small fibroids to 10-fold, CI (4.4-24.8) for the medium

  7. Designers predict a bright future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statton, T.D.

    1996-01-01

    As power plant designers and builders, there is a bright future for the industry. The demand for electricity will continue to grow, and the need for new plants will increase accordingly. But companies that develop and supply these plants must adapt to new ways of doing business if they expect to see the dawn of this new age. Several factors will have a profound effect on the generation and use of electricity in future years. Instant communications now reach all corners of the globe, making people everywhere aspire to a higher standard of living. The economic surge needed to satisfy these appetites will, in turn, be fed by a network of suppliers who are themselves restructuring to serve global markets, unimpeded by past nationalistic barriers to trade. The strong correlation between economic progress and the growing demand for electricity is well recognized. A ready supply of affordable electricity is a necessary underpinning for any economic expansion. As economies advance and jobs increase, electric demand grows geometrically, fueled by an ever-improving quality of life. Coupled with increasing demand is the worldwide trend toward privatization of the generation industry. The reasons may vary in different parts of the world, but the effect is the same--companies are battling intensely for the right to build or purchase generating facilities. Those companies, like the industry they serve, are themselves in a period of transition. Once a closed, monopolistic group of owners in a predominantly services-based market, they are, thanks to competitive forces, being driven steadily toward a product-based structure

  8. Prediction of future asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  9. Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorobieva, I.A.; Panza, G.F.

    1993-06-01

    In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicentre of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the World, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. So far, it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict. The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without any adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, quite often the series of strong earthquakes are relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely ''preliminary'' recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. (author). Refs, 3 figs, 7 tabs

  10. Predicting the future of sports organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jugoslav Vojinovic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

  11. Envisioning the future by predicting the past

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skrydstrup, Martin

    2017-01-01

    ), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future...

  12. Prediction of strong ground motion based on scaling law of earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1991-01-01

    In order to predict more practically strong ground motion, it is important to study how to use a semi-empirical method in case of having no appropriate observation records for actual small-events as empirical Green's functions. We propose a prediction procedure using artificially simulated small ground motions as substitute for the actual motions. First, we simulate small-event motion by means of stochastic simulation method proposed by Boore (1983) in considering pass effects such as attenuation, and broadening of waveform envelope empirically in the objective region. Finally, we attempt to predict the strong ground motion due to a future large earthquake (M 7, Δ = 13 km) using the same summation procedure as the empirical Green's function method. We obtained the results that the characteristics of the synthetic motion using M 5 motion were in good agreement with those by the empirical Green's function method. (author)

  13. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  14. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  15. Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

    2017-12-01

    The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

  16. Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shamita Das

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.

  17. Prediction of strongly-heated internal gas flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McEligot, D.M.; Shehata, A.M.; Kunugi, Tomoaki

    1997-01-01

    The purposes of the present article are to remind practitioners why the usual textbook approaches may not be appropriate for treating gas flows heated from the surface with large heat fluxes and to review the successes of some recent applications of turbulence models to this case. Simulations from various turbulence models have been assessed by comparison to the measurements of internal mean velocity and temperature distributions by Shehata for turbulent, laminarizing and intermediate flows with significant gas property variation. Of about fifteen models considered, five were judged to provide adequate predictions

  18. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  19. Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    1997-01-01

    Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

  20. Operating an EPR: A strong asset in the future European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteve, Bernard; Beutier, Didier

    2006-01-01

    Recently, two nuclear units have been decided in Europe, both EPR 1,600 MWe. In Finland, TVO Company decided to commission a reactor in 2009 on Olkiluoto site. The license was granted in February 2005 and the construction started in summer. In 2004 in France, EDF Company decided an EPR to be commissioned in 2012 at Flamanville. In both cases, national Parliament vote has given the green light. It is interesting to understand why each company has made such decision. In TVO case, the main driving factor seems to be the need of industrial consumers for low and stable electricity price in a context of growing excess demand. In EDF case, no short term demand, but rather long term electricity company strategy seems to be the main reason. The relation to national energy policy is very clear in both cases. In Finland, the 5. Nuclear Power Plant was decided: - as a key element of the energy mix to meet growing electricity needs while replacing older plants, - to ensure, together with renewables, the fulfillment of the Kyoto commitments, - to secure stable and predictable electricity price for intensive industrial consumers (for instance, paper mills), - to reduce the dependence on electricity import. Here, it is argued more broadly that EPR will be a strong asset in the future European electricity market. To support this argument, we shall describe: 1) to what extent the evolving European electricity market may call for new nuclear units, 2) specific design features explaining why EPR especially fits with expectations, 3) cost assessments giving the conditions of EPR competitiveness, 4) main elements of risk assessment and how they are dealt with. (authors)

  1. The ordered network structure of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Men, Ke-Pei [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Mathematics and Statistics; Cui, Lei [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Applied Probability and Statistics Dept.

    2013-05-15

    The the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring defence areas in the eastern part of China. Since 1846, M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main orderly values are 74 {proportional_to} 75 a, 57 {proportional_to} 58 a, 11 {proportional_to} 12 a, and 5 {proportional_to} 6 a, wherein 74 {proportional_to} 75 a and 57 {proportional_to} 58 a with an outstanding predictive role. According to the information prediction theory of Wen-Bo Weng, we conceived the M {>=} 6 strong earthquake ordered network structure in the South Yellow Sea and the whole region. Based on this, we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made a trend prediction of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes in the future. The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about 2042; and the first M {>=} 6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur in 2053 pre and post, with the location likely in the sea area of the South Yellow Sea; also, the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur in 2058 and 2070 pre and post. (orig.)

  2. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

  3. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  4. Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N'Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Marano, F.; Boland, S.; Leroux, M.; Zucchini-Pascal, N.; Peyre, L.; Rahmani, R.; Buron, N.; Porcedou, M.; Fromenty, B.; Borgne-Sanchez, A.; Rogue, A.; Spire, C.; Claude, N.; Guillouzo, A.

    2010-01-01

    Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

  5. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  6. Predicting future discoveries from current scientific literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrič, Ingrid; Cestnik, Bojan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge discovery in biomedicine is a time-consuming process starting from the basic research, through preclinical testing, towards possible clinical applications. Crossing of conceptual boundaries is often needed for groundbreaking biomedical research that generates highly inventive discoveries. We demonstrate the ability of a creative literature mining method to advance valuable new discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature. When emerging ideas from scientific literature are put together as fragments of knowledge in a systematic way, they may lead to original, sometimes surprising, research findings. If enough scientific evidence is already published for the association of such findings, they can be considered as scientific hypotheses. In this chapter, we describe a method for the computer-aided generation of such hypotheses based on the existing scientific literature. Our literature-based discovery of NF-kappaB with its possible connections to autism was recently approved by scientific community, which confirms the ability of our literature mining methodology to accelerate future discoveries based on rare ideas from existing literature.

  7. Predicting Future Conflict under REDD+ Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Silori

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available With the current complexity of issues facing forest and land management, the implementation of the REDD+ initiative comes with significant risks, including conflict. While the exact nature and shape of conflict in REDD+ implementation is difficult to pinpoint, this study aims to build a preliminary predictive framework to identify possible sources of impairment that may result in conflict over management of forests and natural resources. The framework was developed from an extensive literature review and was tested in three REDD+ pilot project sites in Nepal. The results indicate that most of the sources of impairment are present in all study sites, particularly issues relating to benefit sharing, which have been main drivers of conflict prior to REDD+. While we found that the application of the framework has been useful in the Nepalese context, there are some limitations in its scope and precision. Nonetheless, this study points to important implications with regards to REDD+ implementation and conflict management that can be useful for policy makers and practitioners involved in REDD+ strategy designs, as well as other areas of forest management involving outsiders and communities.

  8. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

  9. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  10. arXiv Recent results and future of the NA61/SHINE strong interactions program

    CERN Document Server

    Lysakowski, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    NA61/SHINE is a fixed target experiment at the CERN Super-Proton- Synchrotron. The main goals of the experiment are to discover the critical point of strongly interacting matter and study the properties of the onset of deconfnement. In order to reach these goals the collaboration studies hadron production properties in nucleus-nucleus, proton-proton and proton-nucleus interactions. In this talk, recent results on particle production in p+p interactions, as well as Be+Be and Ar+Sc collisions in the SPS energy range are reviewed. The results are compared with available world data. The future of the NA61/SHINE scientifc program is also presented.

  11. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  12. Prediction of strong earthquake motions on rock surface using evolutionary process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kameda, H.; Sugito, M.

    1984-01-01

    Stochastic process models are developed for prediction of strong earthquake motions for engineering design purposes. Earthquake motions with nonstationary frequency content are modeled by using the concept of evolutionary processes. Discussion is focused on the earthquake motions on bed rocks which are important for construction of nuclear power plants in seismic regions. On this basis, two earthquake motion prediction models are developed, one (EMP-IB Model) for prediction with given magnitude and epicentral distance, and the other (EMP-IIB Model) to account for the successive fault ruptures and the site location relative to the fault of great earthquakes. (Author) [pt

  13. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  14. Prediction and discovery of extremely strong hydrodynamic instabilities due to a velocity jump: theory and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fridman, A M

    2008-01-01

    The theory and the experimental discovery of extremely strong hydrodynamic instabilities are described, viz. the Kelvin-Helmholtz, centrifugal, and superreflection instabilities. The discovery of the last two instabilities was predicted and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in real systems was revised by us. (reviews of topical problems)

  15. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  16. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  17. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  18. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  19. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  20. Does magnetic resonance imaging predict future low back pain?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffens, D; Hancock, M J; Maher, C G

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has the potential to identify pathology responsible for low back pain (LBP). However, the importance of findings on MRI remains controversial. We aimed to systematically review whether MRI findings of the lumbar spine predict future LBP in different samples...

  1. Predicting and Supplying Human Resource Requirements for the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Larry J.

    After asserting that public institutions should not provide training for nonexistent jobs, this paper reviews problems associated with the accurate prediction of future manpower needs. The paper reviews the processes currently used to project labor force needs and notes the difficulty of accurately forecasting labor market "surprises,"…

  2. Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

    1999-01-01

    We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

  3. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

  4. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  5. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  6. Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future; Toxicologie predictive: les voies du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N' Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A. [and others

    2010-07-01

    Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

  7. Prediction of North Pacific Height Anomalies During Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kai-Chih, T.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) creates strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data (MERRA and ERA-Interim) and ECMWF ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anoma- lies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits. Furthermore, we also examine the phase dependency of teleconnection robustness by using Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) and the result is consistent with the ensemble hindcasts : the anomalous heating of MJO phase 2 (phase 6) can consistently generate positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies around the extratropical Pacific with a lead of 15-20 days, while other phases are more sensitive to the variaion of the mean state.

  8. Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catania, Kenneth C.

    2010-01-01

    Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

  9. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  10. Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

    2016-01-01

    A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

  11. Highlight: Building a strong future for African-led HIV prevention ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-14

    Apr 14, 2016 ... The event was a platform to demonstrate the strong collaborations between Canadian and African ... trials, from scientific research to trial administration and management to communicating results. ... Related articles ...

  12. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  13. Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z

    1999-09-01

    In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

  14. Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

    2014-01-29

    Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

  15. Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Clifford

    2014-12-01

    Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

    2012-06-01

    This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

  17. Quantitative accuracy of the simplified strong ion equation to predict serum pH in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cave, N J; Koo, S T

    2015-01-01

    Electrochemical approach to the assessment of acid-base states should provide a better mechanistic explanation of the metabolic component than methods that consider only pH and carbon dioxide. Simplified strong ion equation (SSIE), using published dog-specific values, would predict the measured serum pH of diseased dogs. Ten dogs, hospitalized for various reasons. Prospective study of a convenience sample of a consecutive series of dogs admitted to the Massey University Veterinary Teaching Hospital (MUVTH), from which serum biochemistry and blood gas analyses were performed at the same time. Serum pH was calculated (Hcal+) using the SSIE, and published values for the concentration and dissociation constant for the nonvolatile weak acids (Atot and Ka ), and subsequently Hcal+ was compared with the dog's actual pH (Hmeasured+). To determine the source of discordance between Hcal+ and Hmeasured+, the calculations were repeated using a series of substituted values for Atot and Ka . The Hcal+ did not approximate the Hmeasured+ for any dog (P = 0.499, r(2) = 0.068), and was consistently more basic. Substituted values Atot and Ka did not significantly improve the accuracy (r(2) = 0.169 to <0.001). Substituting the effective SID (Atot-[HCO3-]) produced a strong association between Hcal+ and Hmeasured+ (r(2) = 0.977). Using the simplified strong ion equation and the published values for Atot and Ka does not appear to provide a quantitative explanation for the acid-base status of dogs. Efficacy of substituting the effective SID in the simplified strong ion equation suggests the error lies in calculating the SID. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  18. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

  19. Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Jin, Xueshen; Liu, Zhihui; Paradisopoulou, Parthena; He, Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.

  20. Prediction of future dispute concerning nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-04-01

    This investigation is the third research on the public acceptance of nuclear power generation by the National Congress on Social Economics. In this study, how the energy dispute including that concerning nuclear power generation will develop in 1980s and 1990s, how the form of dispute and the point of controversy will change, were predicted. Though the maintenance of the concord of groups strongly regulates the behavior of people, recently they have become to exercise individual rights frequently. The transition to the society of dispute is the natural result of the modernization of society and the increase of richness. The proper prediction of social problems and the planning and execution of proper countermeasures are very important. The background, objective, basic viewpoint, range and procedure of this investigation, the change of social dispute, the history of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the basic viewpoint in the prediction of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the social situation in 1980s, the prediction and avoidance of the dispute in view of social and energy situations, and the fundamental strategy for seeking a clue to the solution in 1980s and 1990s are described. The establishment of neutral mediation organs and the flexible technologies of nuclear reactors are necessary. (Kako, I.)

  1. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  2. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  3. Prediction and design of first super-strong liquid-crystalline polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowell, F.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the details of the theoretical prediction and design (atom by atom, bond by bond) of the molecule chemical structures of the first candidate super-strong liquid-crystalline polymers (SS LCPs). These LCPs are the first LCPs designed to have good compressive strengths, as well as to have tensile strengths and tensile moduli significantly larger than those of existing strong LCPs (such as Kevlar). The key feature of this new class of LCPs is that the exceptional strength is three dimensional on a microscopic, molecular level (thus, on a macroscopic level), in contrast to present LCPs (such as Kevlar) with their one-dimensional exceptional strength. These SS LCPs also have some solubility and processing advantages over existing strong LCPs. These SS LCPs are specially-designed combined LCPs such that the side chains of a molecule interdigitate with the side chains of other molecules. This paper also presents other essential general and specific features required for SS LCPs. Considerations in the design of SS LCPs include the spacing distance between side chains along the backbone, the need for rigid sections in the backbone and side chains, the degree of polymerization, the length of the side chains, the regularity of spacing of the side chains along the backbone, the interdigitation of side chains in submolecular strips, the packing of the side chains on one or two sides of the backbone, the symmetry of the side chains, the points of attachment of the side chains to the backbone, the flexibility and size of the chemical group connecting each side chain to the backbone, the effect of semiflexible sections in the backbone and side chains, and the choice of types of dipolar and/or hydrogen bonding forces in the backbones and side chains for easy alignment

  4. Prediction of future nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.; Gordon, D.

    2006-01-01

    Groundwater that feeds streams and springs in the Lake Rotorua catchment has 15-130 years mean residence times in the aquifer. These long residence times of the water in the ground result in large time-delays of nitrogen loading from historical agricultural and urban development in the catchment. Currently observed increases in nitrogen loading in surface and groundwater are mostly due to the delayed impact of catchment development that occurred around 55 years ago. Further increases in nitrogen are expected. The time-dependence of the arrival of water to the lake that was recharged since landuse development in the 1950's was calculated using the age distribution of the water derived from tritium, CFC and SF 6 data. The arrival of post-landuse water over time was then used to estimate the nitrogen load to the lake for the time prior to landuse development, for the time since then, and for the future. Excellent matches between measured N loads over the last decades and predicted loads demonstrate the robustness of the approach, and that the model assumptions used for future predictions are reasonable. Future groundwater-derived nutrient loads are listed below. No changes are expected in phosphorus loads via groundwater as long as landuse-derived P continues to be absorbed by the volcanic soils in the catchment. The nitrogen loading to Lake Rotorua prior to major landuse development in the catchment in the 1950's was calculated to be 60 t/year. This has slowly increased to a present nitrogen load of 420 t/y, delayed by long travel times of the groundwater. The nitrogen loading is expected to further increase to 532 t/y in 50 years (25% increase from current), 572 t/y in 100 years (35% increase from current), and to 619 t/y at steady-state (47% increase from current). About 75% of the groundwater-derived nitrogen loading at steady-state enters Lake Rotorua via the nine major streams, and about 20% enters the lake from direct groundwater inflow to the lake bed. The

  5. Sequence-Specific Model for Peptide Retention Time Prediction in Strong Cation Exchange Chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gussakovsky, Daniel; Neustaeter, Haley; Spicer, Victor; Krokhin, Oleg V

    2017-11-07

    The development of a peptide retention prediction model for strong cation exchange (SCX) separation on a Polysulfoethyl A column is reported. Off-line 2D LC-MS/MS analysis (SCX-RPLC) of S. cerevisiae whole cell lysate was used to generate a retention dataset of ∼30 000 peptides, sufficient for identifying the major sequence-specific features of peptide retention mechanisms in SCX. In contrast to RPLC/hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) separation modes, where retention is driven by hydrophobic/hydrophilic contributions of all individual residues, SCX interactions depend mainly on peptide charge (number of basic residues at acidic pH) and size. An additive model (incorporating the contributions of all 20 residues into the peptide retention) combined with a peptide length correction produces a 0.976 R 2 value prediction accuracy, significantly higher than the additive models for either HILIC or RPLC. Position-dependent effects on peptide retention for different residues were driven by the spatial orientation of tryptic peptides upon interaction with the negatively charged surface functional groups. The positively charged N-termini serve as a primary point of interaction. For example, basic residues (Arg, His, Lys) increase peptide retention when located closer to the N-terminus. We also found that hydrophobic interactions, which could lead to a mixed-mode separation mechanism, are largely suppressed at 20-30% of acetonitrile in the eluent. The accuracy of the final Sequence-Specific Retention Calculator (SSRCalc) SCX model (∼0.99 R 2 value) exceeds all previously reported predictors for peptide LC separations. This also provides a solid platform for method development in 2D LC-MS protocols in proteomics and peptide retention prediction filtering of false positive identifications.

  6. Predicting the future development of depression or PTSD after injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Therese S; Ruzek, Josef; Ackerson, Theimann; Wiebe, Douglas J; Winston, Flaura; Kassam-Adams, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to develop a predictive screener that when given soon after injury will accurately differentiate those who will later develop depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from those who will not. This study used a prospective, longitudinal cohort design. Subjects were randomly selected from all injured patients in the emergency department; the majority was assessed within 1 week postinjury with a short predictive screener, followed with in-person interviews after 3 and 6 months to determine the emergence of depression or PTSD within 6 months after injury. A total of 192 completed a risk factor survey at baseline; 165 were assessed over 6 months. Twenty-six subjects [15.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.2-21.3] were diagnosed with depression, four (2.4%, 95% CI 0.7-5.9) with PTSD and one with both. The final eight-item predictive screener was derived; optimal cutoff scores were ≥2 (of 4) depression risk items and ≥3 (of 5) PTSD risk items. The final screener demonstrated excellent sensitivity and moderate specificity both for clinically significant symptoms and for the diagnoses of depression and PTSD. A simple screener that can help identify those patients at highest risk for future development of PTSD and depression postinjury allows the judicious allocation of costly mental health resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Umeda, Y.; Iwata, T.; Kasahara, K.

    2003-12-01

    Introduction: After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government increased its focus and funding of earthquake hazards evaluation, studies of man-made structures integrity, and emergency response planning in the major urban centers. A new agency, the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture (MEXT) has started a five-year program titled as Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas (abbreviated to Dai-dai-toku in Japanese) since 2002. The project includes four programs: I. Regional characterization of the crust in metropolitan areas for prediction of strong ground motion. II. Significant improvement of seismic performance of structure. III. Advanced disaster management system. IV. Investigation of earthquake disaster mitigation research results. We will present the results from the first program conducted in 2002 and 2003. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion: A long-term goal is to produce map of reliable estimations of strong ground motion. This requires accurate determination of ground motion response, which includes a source process, an effect of propagation path, and near surface response. The new five-year project was aimed to characterize the "source" and "propagation path" in the Kanto (Tokyo) region and Kinki (Osaka) region. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake is one of the important targets to be addressed in the project. The proximity of the Pacific and Philippine Sea subducting plates requires study of the relationship between earthquakes and regional tectonics. This project focuses on identification and geometry of: 1) Source faults, 2) Subducting plates and mega-thrust faults, 3) Crustal structure, 4) Seismogenic zone, 5) Sedimentary basins, 6) 3D velocity properties We have conducted a series of seismic reflection and refraction experiment in the Kanto region. In 2002 we have completed to deploy seismic profiling lines in the Boso peninsula (112 km) and the

  8. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  9. Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

    2014-01-01

    A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

  10. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  11. Self-Fitting Hearing Aids: Status Quo and Future Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keidser, Gitte; Convery, Elizabeth

    2016-04-12

    A self-contained, self-fitting hearing aid (SFHA) is a device that enables the user to perform both threshold measurements leading to a prescribed hearing aid setting and fine-tuning, without the need for audiological support or access to other equipment. The SFHA has been proposed as a potential solution to address unmet hearing health care in developing countries and remote locations in the developed world and is considered a means to lower cost and increase uptake of hearing aids in developed countries. This article reviews the status of the SFHA and the evidence for its feasibility and challenges and predicts where it is heading. Devices that can be considered partly or fully self-fitting without audiological support were identified in the direct-to-consumer market. None of these devices are considered self-contained as they require access to other hardware such as a proprietary interface, computer, smartphone, or tablet for manipulation. While there is evidence that self-administered fitting processes can provide valid and reliable results, their success relies on user-friendly device designs and interfaces and easy-to-interpret instructions. Until these issues have been sufficiently addressed, optional assistance with the self-fitting process and on-going use of SFHAs is recommended. Affordability and a sustainable delivery system remain additional challenges for the SFHA in developing countries. Future predictions include a growth in self-fitting products, with most future SFHAs consisting of earpieces that connect wirelessly with a smartphone and providers offering assistance through a telehealth infrastructure, and the integration of SFHAs into the traditional hearing health-care model. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Through a glass darkly: predicting the future of radiation oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Lester J.

    1995-01-01

    To position ourselves professionally for the inevitable transition to managed care demands serious self-appraisal. Like most procedural medical specialties, radiation oncology is currently ill prepared for a capitated system of payment. To prosper under capitation, we need to increase the utility of radiation therapy per unit cost. This can be achieved by making the following adaptive responses: (a) we must ensure that the needs of medical practice drive the use of costly technology and not vice versa; (b) we must subordinate firmly held beliefs and prejudices to solid scientific data and be prepared to modify our practice when more cost-effective alternatives exist; and (c) we must be increasingly conscious of outcome, not process, in deciding among treatment options; and (d) we must acknowledge the need to prioritize the use of finite resources so that the maximum effort is expended on those who have the most to gain from treatment. These changes will permit us to develop guidelines for appropriate use of radiation therapy, and to demonstrate the excellent value of the service we can provide, which is the ultimate key to success. Though the future may at times seem bleak, we can shape it with our actions: the best way to predict the future is to create it

  13. WHY WE CANNOT PREDICT STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE EARTH’S CRUST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif L. Gufeld

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, earthquake disasters caused multiple fatalities and significant economic losses and challenged the modern civilization. The wellknown achievements and growing power of civilization are backstrapped when facing the Nature. The question arises, what hinders solving a problem of earthquake prediction, while longterm and continuous seismic monitoring systems are in place in many regions of the world. For instance, there was no forecast of the Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, despite the fact that monitoring conditions for its prediction were unique. Its focal zone was 100–200 km away from the monitoring network installed in the area of permanent seismic hazard, which is subject to nonstop and longterm seismic monitoring. Lesson should be learned from our common fiasco in forecasting, taking into account research results obtained during the past 50–60 years. It is now evident that we failed to identify precursors of the earthquakes. Prior to the earthquake occurrence, the observed local anomalies of various fields reflected other processes that were mistakenly viewed as processes of preparation for largescale faulting. For many years, geotectonic situations were analyzed on the basis of the physics of destruction of laboratory specimens, which was applied to the lithospheric conditions. Many researchers realize that such an approach is inaccurate. Nonetheless, persistent attempts are being undertaken with application of modern computation to detect anomalies of various fields, which may be interpreted as earthquake precursors. In our opinion, such illusory intentions were smashed by the Great Japan Earthquake (Figure 6. It is also obvious that sufficient attention has not been given yet to fundamental studies of seismic processes.This review presents the authors’ opinion concerning the origin of the seismic process and strong earthquakes, being part of the process. The authors realize that a wide discussion is

  14. Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

  15. Site-specific strong ground motion prediction using 2.5-D modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, J. P.

    2001-08-01

    An algorithm was developed using the 2.5-D elastodynamic wave equation, based on the displacement-stress relation. One of the most significant advantages of the 2.5-D simulation is that the 3-D radiation pattern can be generated using double-couple point shear-dislocation sources in the 2-D numerical grid. A parsimonious staggered grid scheme was adopted instead of the standard staggered grid scheme, since this is the only scheme suitable for computing the dislocation. This new 2.5-D numerical modelling avoids the extensive computational cost of 3-D modelling. The significance of this exercise is that it makes it possible to simulate the strong ground motion (SGM), taking into account the energy released, 3-D radiation pattern, path effects and local site conditions at any location around the epicentre. The slowness vector (py) was used in the supersonic region for each layer, so that all the components of the inertia coefficient are positive. The double-couple point shear-dislocation source was implemented in the numerical grid using the moment tensor components as the body-force couples. The moment per unit volume was used in both the 3-D and 2.5-D modelling. A good agreement in the 3-D and 2.5-D responses for different grid sizes was obtained when the moment per unit volume was further reduced by a factor equal to the finite-difference grid size in the case of the 2.5-D modelling. The components of the radiation pattern were computed in the xz-plane using 3-D and 2.5-D algorithms for various focal mechanisms, and the results were in good agreement. A comparative study of the amplitude behaviour of the 3-D and 2.5-D wavefronts in a layered medium reveals the spatial and temporal damped nature of the 2.5-D elastodynamic wave equation. 3-D and 2.5-D simulated responses at a site using a different strike direction reveal that strong ground motion (SGM) can be predicted just by rotating the strike of the fault counter-clockwise by the same amount as the azimuth of

  16. Predicting the future impact of droughts on ungulate populations in arid and semi-arid environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare Duncan

    Full Text Available Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21(st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

  17. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  18. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

    2005-05-01

    forecast information: (1) the Monthly Industrial Meteorology Information Magazine (MIMIM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (2) the Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS), and (3) the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each of these forecasts is issued in a unique format: (1) MIMIM is a most-probable-event forecast, (2) GDAPS is a single series of deterministic forecasts, and (3) NCEP is an ensemble of deterministic forecasts. Other minor issues include how long the initial conditions influences the ESP accuracy, and how many ESP scenarios are needed to obtain the best accuracy. This presentation also addresses some future research that is needed for ESP in Korea.

  19. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents’ Future Affective Experience during Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M.; Levine, Linda J.; Schneider, Margaret

    2018-01-01

    Purpose Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents’ feelings during exercise. Method During the first semester of the school year, we assessed sixth grade students’ (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test, and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the second semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Results Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise, and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. Conclusion These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences. PMID:28494196

  20. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

    2017-09-01

    Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

  1. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  2. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  3. Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement

  4. Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, K.-C.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

    2018-01-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data and numerical forecast model ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anomalies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits.

  5. Departures from predicted type II behavior in dirty strong-coupling superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J.C.; Neighbor, J.E.; Shiffman, C.A.

    1976-01-01

    Calorimetric measurements of the Ginsburg-Landau parameters for Pb-Sn and Pb-Bi alloys show good agreement with the calculations of Rainer and Bergmann for kappa 1 (t)/kappa 1 (1). However, the calculations of Rainer and Usadel for kappa 2 (t)/kappa 2 (1) substantially underestimate the enhancements due to strong-coupling. (Auth.)

  6. The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, Nick

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

  7. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  8. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Barbet-Massin

    Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

  9. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  10. Predictive Toxicology: Current Status and Future Outlook (EBI ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA. Slide presentation at the EBI-EMBL Industry Programme Workshop on Predictive Toxicology and the currently status of Computational Toxicology activities at the US EPA.

  11. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  12. STRAP Is a Strong Predictive Marker of Adjuvant Chemotherapy Benefit in Colorectal Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Buess, Martin; Terracciano, Luigi; Reuter, Jurgen; Ballabeni, Pierluigi; Boulay, Jean-Louis; Laffer, Urban; Metzger, Urs; Herrmann, Richard; Rochlitz, Christoph

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Molecular predictors for the effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer are of considerable clinical interest. To this aim, we analyzed the serine threonine receptor-associated protein (STRAP), an inhibitor of TGF-βsignaling, with regard to prognosis and prediction of adjuvant 5-FU chemotherapy benefit. i The gene copy status of STRAP was determined using quantitative realtime polymerase chain reaction in 166 colorectal tumor biopsies, which had been collected fro...

  13. Procedure to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey building under strong ground motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hibino, Y.; Ichinose, T.; Costa, J.L.D.

    2009-01-01

    A procedure is presented to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey buildings under strong ground motion. The procedure utilizes the yield strength and the mass of each storey as well as the peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on two different assumptions: (1....... The efficiency of the procedure is verified by dynamic response analyses using elasto-plastic model....

  14. Hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future: overview of session and proceeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. H. S. Chiew

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of this IAHS symposium and PIAHS proceeding on "hydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future". The paper provides a brief review of research on this topic, presents approaches used to account for nonstationarity when extrapolating models to predict the future, and summarises the papers in this session and proceeding.

  15. Proposed studies of strongly coupled plasmas at the future FAIR and LHC facilities the HEDgeHOB collaboration

    CERN Document Server

    Tahir, N A; Shutov, A; Udrea, S; Deutsch, C; Fortov, V E; Gryaznov, V; Hoffmann, Dieter H H; Jacobi, J; Kain, V; Kuster, M; Ni, P; Piriz, A R; Schmidt, R; Spiller, P; Varentsov, D; Zioutas, K

    2006-01-01

    Detailed theoretical studies have shown that intense heavy-ion beams that will be generated at the future Facility for Antiprotons and Ion Research (FAIR) (Henning 2004 Nucl. Instrum. Methods B 214 211) at Darmstadt will be a very efficient tool to create high-energy-density (HED) states in matter including strongly coupled plasmas. In this paper we show, with the help of two-dimensional numerical simulations, the interesting physical states that can be achieved considering different beam intensities using zinc as a test material. Another very interesting experiment that can be performed using the intense heavy-ion beam at FAIR will be generation of low-entropy compression of a test material such as hydrogen that is enclosed in a cylindrical shell of a high-Z material such as lead or gold. In such an experiment, one can study the problem of hydrogen metallization and the interiors of giant planets. Moreover, we discuss an interesting method to diagnose the HED matter that is at the centre of the Sun. We have ...

  16. Proposed studies of strongly coupled plasmas at the future FAIR and LHC facilities: the HEDgeHOB collaboration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahir, N A [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Lomonosov, I V [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Shutov, A [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Udrea, S [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Deutsch, C [LPGP, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay (France); Fortov, V E [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Gryaznov, V [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Hoffmann, D H H [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Jacobi, J [Institut fuer Angewandte Physik, Universitaet Frankfurt, 60438 Frankfurt (Germany); Kain, V [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Kuster, M [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Ni, P [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Piriz, A R [ETSI Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Schmidt, R [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Spiller, P [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Varentsov, D [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Zioutas, K [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland)

    2006-04-28

    Detailed theoretical studies have shown that intense heavy-ion beams that will be generated at the future Facility for Antiprotons and Ion Research (FAIR) (Henning 2004 Nucl. Instrum. Methods B 214 211) at Darmstadt will be a very efficient tool to create high-energy-density (HED) states in matter including strongly coupled plasmas. In this paper we show, with the help of two-dimensional numerical simulations, the interesting physical states that can be achieved considering different beam intensities using zinc as a test material. Another very interesting experiment that can be performed using the intense heavy-ion beam at FAIR will be generation of low-entropy compression of a test material such as hydrogen that is enclosed in a cylindrical shell of a high-Z material such as lead or gold. In such an experiment, one can study the problem of hydrogen metallization and the interiors of giant planets. Moreover, we discuss an interesting method to diagnose the HED matter that is at the centre of the Sun. We have also carried out simulations to study the damage caused by the full impact of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) beam on a superconducting magnet. An interesting outcome of this study is that the LHC beam can induce HED states in matter.

  17. Brighter future predicted at nuclear meetings in Chicago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, H.

    1993-01-01

    This article discusses the future of nuclear power in the United States and the rest of the world. It is a summary of a meeting of the American Nuclear Society/European Nuclear Society in Chicago. Some topics discussed include advanced reactor design, public relations, and nuclear safety

  18. Does muscle strength predict future musculoskeletal disorders and sickness absence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, A; Sell, L; Hansen, J V

    2012-01-01

    High muscle strength is considered relevant for preventing musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence. However, prospective studies on the association between muscle strength and future musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence are few and show contrasting results....

  19. Acute post cessation smoking. A strong predictive factor for metabolic syndrome among adult Saudis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AlDaghri, Nasser M.

    2009-01-01

    To determine the influence of tobacco exposure in the development of metabolic syndrome (MS) in the adult Saudi population. Six hundred and sixty-four adults (305 males and 359 females) aged 25-70 years were included in this cross-sectional study conducted at the King Abdul Aziz University Hospital, between June 2006 and May 2007. We classified the participants into non-smokers, smokers, and ex-smokers (defined as complete cessation for 1-2 years). All subjects were screened for the presence of MS using the modified American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and World Health Organization (WHO) definitions. Metabolic syndrome was highest among ex-smokers regardless of definition used. Relative risk for ex-smokers (95% CI: 2.23, 1.06-4.73) was more than twice in harboring MS as compared to non-smokers (95% CI: 2.78, 1.57-4.92) (p=0.009). Acute post-cessation smoking is a strong predictor for MS among male and female Arabs. Smoking cessation programs should include a disciplined lifestyle and dietary intervention to counteract the MS-augmenting side-effect of smoking cessation. (author)

  20. Trait Impressions as Heuristics for Predicting Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Leonard S.

    1996-01-01

    The dispositionist bias manifests itself when behavior is overattributed to dispositions, and when contextual factors are underused when predicting behavior. Psychological processes underlying the former bias have been most thoroughly examined. Three studies support the hypothesis that trait implications of past behavior function as heuristics…

  1. Selection procedures in sports: Improving predictions of athletes’ future performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Hartigh, Jan Rudolf; Niessen, Anna; Frencken, Wouter; Meijer, Rob R.

    The selection of athletes has been a central topic in sports sciences for decades. Yet, little consideration has been given to the theoretical underpinnings and predictive validity of the procedures. In this paper, we evaluate current selection procedures in sports given what we know from the

  2. Nanotoxicity prediction using computational modelling - review and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Bhavna; Srivastava, Sumit

    2018-04-01

    Nanomaterials has stimulated various outlooks for future in a number of industries and scientific ventures. A number of applications such as cosmetics, medicines, and electronics are employing nanomaterials due to their various compelling properties. The unending growth of nanomaterials usage in our daily life has escalated the health and environmental risks. Early nanotoxicity recognition is a big challenge. Various researches are going on in the field of nanotoxicity, which comprised of several problems such as inadequacy of proper datasets, lack of appropriate rules and characterization of nanomaterials. Computational modelling would be beneficial asset for nanomaterials researchers because it can foresee the toxicity, rest on previous experimental data. In this study, we have reviewed sufficient work demonstrating a proper pathway to proceed with QSAR analysis of Nanomaterials for toxicity modelling. The paper aims at providing comprehensive insight of Nano QSAR, various theories, tools and approaches used, along with an outline for future research directions to work on.

  3. Using Data Mining to Predict Possible Future Depression Cases

    OpenAIRE

    Daimi, Kevin; Banitaan, Shadi

    2014-01-01

    Depression is a disorder characterized by misery and gloominess felt over a period of time. Some symptoms of depression overlap with somatic illnesses implying considerable difficulty in diagnosing it. This paper contributes to its diagnosis through the application of data mining, namely classification, to predict patients who will most likely develop depression or are currently suffering from depression. Synthetic data is used for this study. To acquire the results, the popular suite of mach...

  4. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  5. Numerical prediction of local transitional features of turbulent forced gas flows in circular tubes with strong heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ezato, Koichiro; Kunugi, Tomoaki; Shehata, A.M.; McEligot, D.M.

    1997-03-01

    Previous numerical simulation for the laminarization due to heating of the turbulent flow in pipe were assessed by comparison with only macroscopic characteristics such as heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop, since no experimental data on the local distributions of the velocity and temperature in such flow situation was available. Recently, Shehata and McEligot reported the first measurements of local distributions of velocity and temperature for turbulent forced air flow in a vertical circular tube with strongly heating. They carried out the experiments in three situations from turbulent flow to laminarizing flow according to the heating rate. In the present study, we analyzed numerically the local transitional features of turbulent flow evolving laminarizing due to strong heating in their experiments by using the advanced low-Re two-equation turbulence model. As the result, we successfully predicted the local distributions of velocity and temperature as well as macroscopic characteristics in three turbulent flow conditions. By the present study, a numerical procedure has been established to predict the local characteristics such as velocity distribution of the turbulent flow with large thermal-property variation and laminarizing flow due to strong heating with enough accuracy. (author). 60 refs

  6. Prediction of strongly-heated gas flows in a vertical tube using explicit algebraic stress/heat-flux models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Seong Gu; Park, Seung O.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides the assessment of prediction performance of explicit algebraic stress and heat-flux models under conditions of mixed convective gas flows in a strongly-heated vertical tube. Two explicit algebraic stress models and four algebraic heat-flux models are selected for assessment. Eight combinations of explicit algebraic stress and heat-flux models are used in predicting the flows experimentally studied by Shehata and McEligot (IJHMT 41(1998) p.4333) in which property variation was significant. Among the various model combinations, the Wallin and Johansson (JFM 403(2000) p. 89) explicit algebraic stress model-Abe, Kondo, and Nagano (IJHFF 17(1996) p. 228) algebraic heat-flux model combination is found to perform best. We also found that the dimensionless wall distance y + should be calculated based on the local property rather than the property at the wall for property-variation flows. When the buoyancy or the property variation effects are so strong that the flow may relaminarize, the choice of the basic platform two-equation model is a most important factor in improving the predictions

  7. Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John G

    2015-04-16

    Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

  8. Digitization and its discontents: future shock in predictive oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Richard J

    2010-02-01

    Clinical cancer care is being transformed by a high-technology informatics revolution fought out between the forces of personalized (biomarker-guided) and depersonalized (bureaucracy-controlled) medicine. Factors triggering this conflict include the online proliferation of treatment algorithms, rising prices of biological drug therapies, increasing sophistication of genomic-based predictive tools, and the growing entrepreneurialism of offshore treatment facilities. The resulting Napster-like forces unleashed within the oncology marketplace will deliver incremental improvements in cost-efficacy to global healthcare consumers. There will also be a price to pay, however, as the rising wave of digitization encourages third-party payers to make more use of biomarkers for tightening reimbursement criteria. Hence, as in other digitally transformed industries, a new paradigm of professional service delivery-less centered on doctor-patient relationships than in the past, and more dependent on pricing and marketing for standardized biomarker-defined indications-seems set to emerge as the unpredicted deliverable from this brave new world of predictive oncology. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-07-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P 4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  10. Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

  11. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  12. Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Morin

    Full Text Available Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems.

  13. Adults' future time perspective predicts engagement in physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Sarah T; Patrick, Julie Hicks

    2012-07-01

    Our aim was to examine how the relations among known predictors of physical activity, such as age, sex, and body mass index, interact with future time perspective (FTP) and perceived functional limitation to explain adults' engagement in physical activity. Self-report data from 226 adults (range 20-88 years) were collected to examine the hypothesis that a more expansive FTP is associated with engagement in physical activity. Results indicated a good fit of the data to the model χ(2) (4, N = 226) = 7.457, p = .14 and accounted for a moderate amount of variance in adults' physical activity (R(2) = 15.7). Specifically, results indicated that perceived functional limitation (β = -.140) and FTP (β = .162) were directly associated with physical activity. Age was indirectly associated with physical activity through its association with perceived functional limitation (β = -.264) and FTP (β = .541). Results indicate that FTP may play an important role in explaining engagement in health promoting behaviors across the life span. Researchers should consider additional constructs and perhaps adopt socioemotional selectivity theory when explaining adults' engagement in physical activity.

  14. Discovery Mondays - Simulations: using maths to predict the future

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    CERN's physicists often play with dice, using chance to simulate particle collisions and the tracks they will leave behind them in the detectors. Random number generators and various kinds of probability methods are just some of the mathematics tools physicists rely on to create random variables and predict events. The well-known Monte-Carlo simulation method derives its name from the games of chance for which the town of Monte-Carlo is famous. Particle physicists are not the only ones to make use of chance and probabilities. They have daily applications in many fields, both scientific and non-scientific, including climatology, cosmology and the world of finance. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the chances of learning more about the science of chance at the next Discovery Monday are very high! The event will be conducted in French. Join us at Microcosm (Reception, Building 33, Meyrin site) on Monday, 4 December from 7.30 p.m. to 9 p.m. Entrance is free http://www.cern.ch/LundisDecouverte...

  15. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  16. Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-10-01

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Predictions for Boson-Jet Observables and Fragmentation Function Ratios from a Hybrid Strong/Weak Coupling Model for Jet Quenching

    CERN Document Server

    Casalderrey-Solana, Jorge; Milhano, José Guilherme; Pablos, Daniel; Rajagopal, Krishna

    2016-01-01

    We have previously introduced a hybrid strong/weak coupling model for jet quenching in heavy ion collisions that describes the production and fragmentation of jets at weak coupling, using PYTHIA, and describes the rate at which each parton in the jet shower loses energy as it propagates through the strongly coupled plasma, dE/dx, using an expression computed holographically at strong coupling. The model has a single free parameter that we fit to a single experimental measurement. We then confront our model with experimental data on many other jet observables, focusing here on boson-jet observables, finding that it provides a good description of present jet data. Next, we provide the predictions of our hybrid model for many measurements to come, including those for inclusive jet, dijet, photon-jet and Z-jet observables in heavy ion collisions with energy $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ ATeV coming soon at the LHC. As the statistical uncertainties on near-future measurements of photon-jet observables are expected to be much sm...

  18. A novel multilayer model for missing link prediction and future link forecasting in dynamic complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad

    2018-02-01

    The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of

  19. Prediction of strong acceleration motion depended on focal mechanism; Shingen mechanism wo koryoshita jishindo yosoku ni tsuite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneda, Y; Ejiri, J [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes simulation results of strong acceleration motion with varying uncertain fault parameters mainly for a fault model of Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. For the analysis, based on the fault parameters, the strong acceleration motion was simulated using the radiation patterns and the breaking time difference of composite faults as parameters. A statistic waveform composition method was used for the simulation. For the theoretical radiation patterns, directivity was emphasized which depended on the strike of faults, and the maximum acceleration was more than 220 gal. While, for the homogeneous radiation patterns, the maximum accelerations were isotopically distributed around the fault as a center. For variations in the maximum acceleration and the predominant frequency due to the breaking time difference of three faults, the response spectral value of maximum/minimum was about 1.7 times. From the viewpoint of seismic disaster prevention, underground structures including potential faults and non-arranging properties can be grasped using this simulation. Significance of the prediction of strong acceleration motion was also provided through this simulation using uncertain factors, such as breaking time of composite faults, as parameters. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Strong ground motion prediction applying dynamic rupture simulations for Beppu-Haneyama Active Fault Zone, southwestern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimi, M.; Matsushima, S.; Ando, R.; Miyake, H.; Imanishi, K.; Hayashida, T.; Takenaka, H.; Suzuki, H.; Matsuyama, H.

    2017-12-01

    We conducted strong ground motion prediction for the active Beppu-Haneyama Fault zone (BHFZ), Kyushu island, southwestern Japan. Since the BHFZ runs through Oita and Beppy cities, strong ground motion as well as fault displacement may affect much to the cities.We constructed a 3-dimensional velocity structure of a sedimentary basin, Beppu bay basin, where the fault zone runs through and Oita and Beppu cities are located. Minimum shear wave velocity of the 3d model is 500 m/s. Additional 1-d structure is modeled for sites with softer sediment: holocene plain area. We observed, collected, and compiled data obtained from microtremor surveys, ground motion observations, boreholes etc. phase velocity and H/V ratio. Finer structure of the Oita Plain is modeled, as 250m-mesh model, with empirical relation among N-value, lithology, depth and Vs, using borehole data, then validated with the phase velocity data obtained by the dense microtremor array observation (Yoshimi et al., 2016).Synthetic ground motion has been calculated with a hybrid technique composed of a stochastic Green's function method (for HF wave), a 3D finite difference (LF wave) and 1D amplification calculation. Fault geometry has been determined based on reflection surveys and active fault map. The rake angles are calculated with a dynamic rupture simulation considering three fault segments under a stress filed estimated from source mechanism of earthquakes around the faults (Ando et al., JpGU-AGU2017). Fault parameters such as the average stress drop, a size of asperity etc. are determined based on an empirical relation proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2001). As a result, strong ground motion stronger than 100 cm/s is predicted in the hanging wall side of the Oita plain.This work is supported by the Comprehensive Research on the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  1. Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations using Iranian strong-motion data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafarani, H.; Luzi, Lucia; Lanzano, Giovanni; Soghrat, M. R.

    2018-01-01

    A recently compiled, comprehensive, and good-quality strong-motion database of the Iranian earthquakes has been used to develop local empirical equations for the prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) up to 4.0 s. The equations account for style of faulting and four site classes and use the horizontal distance from the surface projection of the rupture plane as a distance measure. The model predicts the geometric mean of horizontal components and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio. A total of 1551 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 200 shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 4.0 to 7.3 are used to perform regression analysis using the random effects algorithm of Abrahamson and Youngs (Bull Seism Soc Am 82:505-510, 1992), which considers between-events as well as within-events errors. Due to the limited data used in the development of previous Iranian ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and strong trade-offs between different terms of GMPEs, it is likely that the previously determined models might have less precision on their coefficients in comparison to the current study. The richer database of the current study allows improving on prior works by considering additional variables that could not previously be adequately constrained. Here, a functional form used by Boore and Atkinson (Earthquake Spect 24:99-138, 2008) and Bindi et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 9:1899-1920, 2011) has been adopted that allows accounting for the saturation of ground motions at close distances. A regression has been also performed for the V/H in order to retrieve vertical components by scaling horizontal spectra. In order to take into account epistemic uncertainty, the new model can be used along with other appropriate GMPEs through a logic tree framework for seismic hazard assessment in Iran and Middle East region.

  2. Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

    2015-02-01

    Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  4. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  5. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

    2018-06-01

    Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

  8. Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

    2007-09-01

    This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

  9. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Rajagopalan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  10. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  11. Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

    2018-03-01

    Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

  12. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  13. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  14. Predicting future traffic offenders by pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving

    OpenAIRE

    Slavinskienė, Justina; Žardeckaitė-Matulaitienė, Kristina; Endriulaitienė, Auksė; Šeibokaitė, Laura; Markšaitytė, Rasa

    2017-01-01

    Worldwide statistics indicate that novice drivers are still one of the riskiest drivers’ groups as they highly contribute to road accidents and traffic rules violations. Thus, the psychological variables that allow predicting whether novice drivers will violate traffic rules are important in risky driving research. The aim of this study is to find out if pre-drivers’ attitudes towards risky driving measured before obtaining driving license could predict future traffic offences during the firs...

  15. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2018-02-01

    Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  16. 'Will I want these stickers tomorrow?' Preschoolers' ability to predict current and future needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Ordas, Gema

    2017-11-01

    Between 3 and 5 years of age, children develop the ability to plan for their own and others' future needs; however, they have great difficulty predicting future needs that conflict with current ones. Importantly, this ability has only been tested in the domain of physiological states (e.g., thirst). Therefore, it is still an open question whether in a different context preschoolers can disengage from their current needs to secure a different future one. In a Resource Allocation task, 4- and 5-year-olds had to distribute three types of rewards between themselves and another child for either 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward at beginning of the task. Only 5-year-olds could predict future needs that conflict with their current ones and act accordingly. Younger children's performance is discussed in the context of temporal and social distance. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? By the age of 4, children can plan for their own and others' future needs. Seven-year-old children still have difficulty predicting future physiological needs that conflict with their current ones. What does this study add? In a Resource Allocation task, preschoolers had to share rewards with another child for 'right now' or 'tomorrow'. Children's current needs were manipulated by providing them (or not) with their preferred reward. This study shows that 5-year-olds can predict future (non-physiological) needs that conflict with their current ones. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Probing strongly interacting electroweak dynamics through W+W-/ZZ ratios at future e+e- colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barger, V.; Cheung, K.; Han, T.; Phillips, R.J.N.

    1995-01-01

    We point out that the ratio of W + W - →W + W - and W + W - →ZZ cross sections is a sensitive probe of the dynamics of electroweak symmetry breaking, in the c.m. energy region √s WW approx-gt 1 TeV where vector boson scattering may well become strong. We suggest ways in which this ratio can be extracted at a 1.5 TeV e + e - linear collider, using W ± ,Z→jj hadronic decays and relying on dijet mass resolution to provid statistical discrimination between W ± and Z. WW fusion processes studied here are unique for exploring scalar resonances of mass of about 1 TeV and are complementary to studies via the direct channel e + e - →W + W - for the vector and nonresonant cases. With an integrated luminosity of 200 fb -1 , the signals obtained are statistically significant. A comparision with a study of the e - e - →ννW - W - process is made. Enhancements of the signal rate from using a polarized electron beam, or at a 2 TeV e + e - linear colider and possible higher energy μ + μ - colliders, are also presented

  18. Probing strongly-interacting electroweak dynamics through W+W-/ZZ ratios at future e+e- colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barger, V.

    1995-01-01

    The authors point out that the ratio of W + W - → W + W - and W + W - → ZZ cross sections is a sensitive probe of the dynamics of electroweak symmetry breaking, in the CM energy region √s ww approx-gt 1 TeV where vector boson scattering may well become strong. They suggest ways in which this ratio can be extracted at a 1.5 TeV e + e - linear collider, using W ± , Z → jj hadronic decays and relying on dijet mass resolution to provide statistical discrimination between W ± and Z. WW fusion processes studied here are unique for exploring scalar resonances of mass about 1 TeV and are complementary to studies via the direct channel e + e - → W + W - for the vector and non-resonant cases. With an integrated luminosity of 200 fb -1 , the signals obtained are statistically significant. Comparison with a study of e - e - → ννW - W - process is made. Enhancements of the signal rate from using a polarized electron beam, or at a 2 TeV e + e - linear collider and possible higher energy μ + μ - colliders, are also presented

  19. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  20. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  1. Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2017-01-01

    Model predictive control is seen as one of the key future enabler in increasing energy efficiency in buildings. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of the control for different formulations of the objective function. This comparison is made in a simulation study on a single buildi...

  2. This time it is different! Or not? : Discounting past data when predicting the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); E. Janssens (Eva)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe employ a simple method based on logistic weighted least squares to diagnose which past data are less or more useful for predicting the future course of a variable. A simulation experiment shows its merits. An illustration for monthly industrial production series for 17 countries

  3. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  4. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  5. Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, D; Story, A L

    1991-10-01

    Do depressed individuals make more realistic judgments than their nondepressed peers in real world settings? Depressed and nondepressed Ss in 2 studies were asked to make predictions about future actions and outcomes that might occur in their personal academic and social worlds. Both groups of Ss displayed overconfidence, that is, they overestimated the likelihood that their predictions would prove to be accurate. Of key importance, depressed Ss were less accurate in their predictions, and thus more overconfident, than their nondepressed counterparts. These differences arose because depressed Ss (a) were more likely to predict the occurrence of low base-rate events and (b) were less likely to be correct when they made optimistic predictions (i.e., stated that positive events would occur or that aversive outcomes would not). Discussion focuses on implications of these findings for the depressive realism hypothesis.

  6. Does nailfold capillaroscopy help predict future outcomes in systemic sclerosis? A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Dolcie; Pauling, John D

    2018-02-14

    potential bias across the studies was insufficient adjustment for potential confounders; such as existing DU disease in studies evaluating future DU occurrence. Recent work suggests NC evolution is an important predictor of disease progression in SSc. High levels of potential bias relating to study confounding and statistical analysis make it difficult to draw conclusions regarding the prognostic role of NC in SSc. There is strong evidence supporting an association between NC abnormalities (particularly capillary loss) and disease severity (particularly vascular manifestations such as DU, calcinosis and PAH). Evolution of NC appearances may represent a more important predictor of disease progression which could have important implications for the future use of NC in the routine longitudinal assessment and management of SSc. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Deep subsurface structure modeling and site amplification factor estimation in Niigata plain for broadband strong motion prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hiroaki

    2009-01-01

    This report addresses a methodology of deep subsurface structure modeling in Niigata plain, Japan to estimate site amplification factor in the broadband frequency range for broadband strong motion prediction. In order to investigate deep S-wave velocity structures, we conduct microtremor array measurements at nine sites in Niigata plain, which are important to estimate both long- and short-period ground motion. The estimated depths of the top of the basement layer agree well with those of the Green tuff formation as well as the Bouguer anomaly distribution. Dispersion characteristics derived from the observed long-period ground motion records are well explained by the theoretical dispersion curves of Love wave group velocities calculated from the estimated subsurface structures. These results demonstrate the deep subsurface structures from microtremor array measurements make it possible to estimate long-period ground motions in Niigata plain. Moreover an applicability of microtremor array exploration for inclined basement structure like a folding structure is shown from the two dimensional finite difference numerical simulations. The short-period site amplification factors in Niigata plain are empirically estimated by the spectral inversion analysis from S-wave parts of strong motion data. The resultant characteristics of site amplification are relative large in the frequency range of about 1.5-5 Hz, and decay significantly with the frequency increasing over about 5 Hz. However, these features can't be explained by the calculations from the deep subsurface structures. The estimation of site amplification factors in the frequency range of about 1.5-5 Hz are improved by introducing a shallow detailed structure down to GL-20m depth at a site. We also propose to consider random fluctuation in a modeling of deep S-wave velocity structure for broadband site amplification factor estimation. The Site amplification in the frequency range higher than about 5 Hz are filtered

  8. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  9. Extension of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model predictions at high temperatures and strong external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomes, Karina P.; Farias, R.L.S.; Pinto, M.B.; Krein, G.

    2013-01-01

    Full text: Recently much attention is dedicated to understand the effects of an external magnetic field on the QCD phase diagram. Actually there is a contradiction in the literature: while effective models of QCD like the Nambu-Jona- Lasinio model (NJL) and linear sigma model predict an increase of the critical temperature of chiral symmetry restoration a function of the magnetic field, recent lattice results shows the opposite behavior. The NJL model is nonrenormalizable; then the high momentum part of the model has to be regularized in a phenomenological way. The common practice is to regularize the divergent loop amplitudes with a three-dimensional momentum cutoff, which also sets the energy-momentum scale for the validity of the model. That is, the model cannot be used for studying phenomena involving momenta running in loops larger than the cutoff. In particular, the model cannot be used to study quark matter at high densities. One of the symptoms of this problem is the prediction of vanishing superconducting gaps at high baryon densities, a feature of the model that is solely caused by the use of a regularizing momentum cutoff of the divergent vacuum and also in finite loop integrals. In a renormalizable theory all the dependence on the cutoff can be removed in favor of running physical parameters, like the coupling constants of QED and QCD. The running is given by the renormalization group equations of the theory and is controlled by an energy scale that is adjusted to the scale of the experimental conditions under consideration. In a recent publication, Casalbuoni et al. have introduced the concept of a running coupling constant for the NJL model to extend the applicability of the model to high density. Their arguments are based on making the cutoff density dependent, using an analogy with the natural cutoff of the Debye frequency of phonon oscillations in an ordinary solid. In the present work we follow such an approach introducing a magnetic field

  10. Right Heart End-Systolic Remodeling Index Strongly Predicts Outcomes in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: Comparison With Validated Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amsallem, Myriam; Sweatt, Andrew J; Aymami, Marie C; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Selej, Mona; Lu, HongQuan; Mercier, Olaf; Fadel, Elie; Schnittger, Ingela; McConnell, Michael V; Rabinovitch, Marlene; Zamanian, Roham T; Haddad, Francois

    2017-06-01

    Right ventricular (RV) end-systolic dimensions provide information on both size and function. We investigated whether an internally scaled index of end-systolic dimension is incremental to well-validated prognostic scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension. From 2005 to 2014, 228 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension were prospectively enrolled. RV end-systolic remodeling index (RVESRI) was defined by lateral length divided by septal height. The incremental values of RV free wall longitudinal strain and RVESRI to risk scores were determined. Mean age was 49±14 years, 78% were female, 33% had connective tissue disease, 52% were in New York Heart Association class ≥III, and mean pulmonary vascular resistance was 11.2±6.4 WU. RVESRI and right atrial area were strongly connected to the other right heart metrics. Three zones of adaptation (adapted, maladapted, and severely maladapted) were identified based on the RVESRI to RV systolic pressure relationship. During a mean follow-up of 3.9±2.4 years, the primary end point of death, transplant, or admission for heart failure was reached in 88 patients. RVESRI was incremental to risk prediction scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension, including the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management score, the Pulmonary Hypertension Connection equation, and the Mayo Clinic model. Using multivariable analysis, New York Heart Association class III/IV, RVESRI, and log NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) were retained (χ 2 , 62.2; P right heart metrics, RVESRI demonstrated the best test-retest characteristics. RVESRI is a simple reproducible prognostic marker in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

    2015-12-01

    Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  13. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

    2015-05-01

    Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  15. A consistent and predictable commercial broiler chicken bacterial microbiota in antibiotic-free production displays strong correlations with performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Timothy J; Youmans, Bonnie P; Noll, Sally; Cardona, Carol; Evans, Nicholas P; Karnezos, T Peter; Ngunjiri, John M; Abundo, Michael C; Lee, Chang-Won

    2018-04-06

    Defining the baseline bacterial microbiome is critical towards understanding its relationship with health and disease. In broiler chickens, the core microbiome and its possible relationships with health and disease have been difficult to define due to high variability between birds and flocks. Presented are data from a large, comprehensive microbiota-based study in commercial broilers. The primary goals of this study included understanding what constitutes the core bacterial microbiota in the broiler gastrointestinal, respiratory, and barn environments; how these core players change across age, geography, and time; and which bacterial taxa correlate with enhanced bird performance in antibiotic-free flocks. Using 2,309 samples from 37 different commercial flocks within a vertically integrated broiler system, and metadata from these and an additional 512 flocks within that system, the baseline bacterial microbiota was defined using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The effects of age, sample type, flock, and successive flock cycles were compared, and results indicate a consistent, predictable, age-dependent bacterial microbiota, irrespective of flock. The tracheal bacterial microbiota of broilers was comprehensively defined, and Lactobacillus was the dominant bacterial taxa in the trachea. Numerous bacterial taxa were identified which were strongly correlated with broiler chicken performance, across multiple tissues. While many positively correlated taxa were identified, negatively associated potential pathogens were also identified in the absence of clinical disease, indicating subclinical dynamics occurring that impact performance. Overall, this work provides necessary baseline data for the development of effective antibiotic alternatives, such as probiotics, for sustainable poultry production. Importance Multidrug resistant bacterial pathogens are perhaps the greatest medical challenge we will face in the 21 st century and beyond. Antibiotics are necessary in animal

  16. Development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. Current status and future subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Yasunori; Kusunoki, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Ikuo; Yanagi, Chihiro; Kinoshita, Ikuo; Iwasaki, Yoshito

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear licensees are required to maintain a prediction system during normal condition for using a nuclear emergency by the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention of government. With prediction of the incident progress, if the present condition of nuclear power plant is understood appropriately and it grows more serious with keeping the present situation, it is in predicting what kind of situation will be occurred in the near future, choosing the effective countermeasures against the coming threat, and understanding the time available of intervention time. Following the accident on September 30 1999 in the nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Tokai Village of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Institute of Nuclear Safety System started development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. We have performed technical applications and made improvements in nuclear emergency exercises and verified the developed systems using the observed values of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. As a result, our developed Incident Progress Prediction System was applied to nuclear emergency exercises and we accumulated knowledge and experience by which we improved the system to make predictions more rapidly and more precisely, including for example, the development of a prediction method for leak size of reactor coolant. On the other hand, if a rapidly progressing incident occurs, since end users need simple and quick predictions about the public's protection and evacuation areas, we developed the Radioactive Materials Release, Radiation Dose and Radiological Protection Area Prediction System which changed solving an inverse problem into a forward problem solution. In view of the water-level-decline incident of the spent fuel storage facility at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the spent fuel storage facility water level and the water temperature evaluation tool were improved. Such incident progress prediction technologies were

  17. Decisions among the undecided: implicit attitudes predict future voting behavior of undecided voters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristjen B Lundberg

    Full Text Available Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.

  18. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  19. Toxicogenomic multigene biomarker for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minowa, Yohsuke; Kondo, Chiaki; Uehara, Takeki; Morikawa, Yuji; Okuno, Yasushi; Nakatsu, Noriyuki; Ono, Atsushi; Maruyama, Toshiyuki; Kato, Ikuo; Yamate, Jyoji; Yamada, Hiroshi; Ohno, Yasuo; Urushidani, Tetsuro

    2012-01-01

    Drug-induced renal tubular injury is a major concern in the preclinical safety evaluation of drug candidates. Toxicogenomics is now a generally accepted tool for identifying chemicals with potential safety problems. The specific aim of the present study was to develop a model for use in predicting the future onset of drug-induced proximal tubular injury following repeated dosing with various nephrotoxicants. In total, 41 nephrotoxic and nonnephrotoxic compounds were used for the present analysis. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed orally or intravenously once daily. Animals were exposed to three different doses (low, middle, and high) of each compound, and kidney tissue was collected at 3, 6, 9, and 24 h after single dosing, and on days 4, 8, 15, and 29 after repeated dosing. Gene expression profiles were generated from kidney total RNA using Affymetrix DNA microarrays. Filter-type gene selection and linear classification algorithms were employed to discriminate future onset of proximal tubular injury. We identified genomic biomarkers for use in future onset prediction using the gene expression profiles determined on day 1, when most of the nephrotoxicants had yet to produce detectable histopathological changes. The model was evaluated using a five-fold cross validation, and achieved a sensitivity of 93% and selectivity of 90% with 19 probes. We also found that the prediction accuracy of the optimized model was substantially higher than that produced by any of the single genomic biomarkers or histopathology. The genes included in our model were primarily involved in DNA replication, cell cycle control, apoptosis, and responses to oxidative stress and chemical stimuli. In summary, our toxicogenomic model is particularly useful for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury.

  20. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  1. FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-02-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Bert

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

  3. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald de Vlaming

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii the computational feasibility, and (iv the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis. Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N<10,000 the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP. However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  4. Brain Activity in Valuation Regions while Thinking about the Future Predicts Individual Discount Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Nicole; Kim, B. Kyu; Zauberman, Gal

    2013-01-01

    People vary widely in how much they discount delayed rewards, yet little is known about the sources of these differences. Here we demonstrate that neural activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and ventral striatum (VS) when human subjects are asked to merely think about the future—specifically, to judge the subjective length of future time intervals—predicts delay discounting. High discounters showed lower activity for longer time delays, while low discounters showed the opposite pattern. Our results demonstrate that the correlation between VMPFC and VS activity and discounting occurs even in the absence of choices about future rewards, and does not depend on a person explicitly evaluating future outcomes or judging their self-relevance. This suggests a link between discounting and basic processes involved in thinking about the future, such as temporal perception. Our results also suggest that reducing impatience requires not suppression of VMPFC and VS activity altogether, but rather modulation of how these regions respond to the present versus the future. PMID:23926268

  5. Methods for prediction of strong earthquake ground motion. Final technical report, October 1, 1976--September 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trifunac, M.D.

    1977-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of the work on characterization of strong earthquake ground motion. The objective of this effort has been to initiate presentation of simple yet detailed methodology for characterization of strong earthquake ground motion for use in licensing and evaluation of operating Nuclear Power Plants. This report will emphasize the simplicity of the methodology by presenting only the end results in a format that may be useful for the development of the site specific criteria in seismic risk analysis, for work on the development of modern standards and regulatory guides, and for re-evaluation of the existing power plant sites

  6. Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

    OpenAIRE

    Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

  7. Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

    2018-06-01

    The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

  8. Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

  9. Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

    2011-01-01

    Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Is Personality Fixed? Personality Changes as Much as "Variable" Economic Factors and More Strongly Predicts Changes to Life Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J.; Wood, Alex M.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh

    2013-01-01

    Personality is the strongest and most consistent cross-sectional predictor of high subjective well-being. Less predictive economic factors, such as higher income or improved job status, are often the focus of applied subjective well-being research due to a perception that they can change whereas personality cannot. As such there has been limited…

  11. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  12. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  13. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  14. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  15. Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

    2013-10-01

    The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction.

  16. Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

    2007-10-01

    To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

  17. SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE PREDICTION FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WEATHER USING FY2-G SATELLITE DATA: A CASE STUDY OF SHENZHEN,SOUTH CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Chen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Short-term precipitation commonly occurs in south part of China, which brings intensive precipitation in local region for very short time. Massive water would cause the intensive flood inside of city when precipitation amount beyond the capacity of city drainage system. Thousands people’s life could be influenced by those short-term disasters and the higher city managements are required to facing these challenges. How to predict the occurrence of heavy precipitation accurately is one of the worthwhile scientific questions in meteorology. According to recent studies, the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction based on numerical simulation model still remains low reliability, in some area where lack of local observations, the accuracy may be as low as 10%. The methodology for short term precipitation occurrence prediction still remains a challenge. In this paper, a machine learning method based on SVM was presented to predict short-term precipitation occurrence by using FY2-G satellite imagery and ground in situ observation data. The results were validated by traditional TS score which commonly used in evaluation of weather prediction. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm can present overall accuracy up to 90% for one-hour to six-hour forecast. The result implies the prediction accuracy could be improved by using machine learning method combining with satellite image. This prediction model can be further used to evaluated to predicted other characteristics of weather in Shenzhen in future.

  18. Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

  19. Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

    2012-01-01

    For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

  20. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  1. A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

    2010-10-01

    This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  2. The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Papadopoulos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that

  3. Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

    2016-10-01

    mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  4. Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

    2011-08-01

    Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayden D Russell

    Full Text Available The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter Sea Surface Temperature (SST as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.

  6. Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2015-12-01

    This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.

  7. Predictability of current and future multi-river discharges: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Jun

    2007-12-01

    Determining river discharge is of critical importance to many societies as they struggle with fresh water supply and risk of flooding. In Bangladesh, floods occur almost every year but with sufficient irregularity to have adverse social and economical consequences. Important goals are to predict the discharge to be used for the optimization of agricultural practices, disaster mitigation and water resource management. The aim of this study is to determine the predictability of river discharge in a number of major rivers on time scale varying from weeks to a century. We investigated predictability considering relationship between SST and discharge. Next, we consider IPCC model projections of river discharge while the models are statistically adjusted against observed discharges. In this study, we consider five rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Blue Nile, and the Murray-Darling Rivers. On seasonal time scales, statistically significant correlations are found between mean monthly equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer Ganges discharge with lead times of 2-3 months due to oscillations of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In addition, there are strong correlations in the southwest and northeast Pacific. These, too, appear to be tied to the ENSO cycle. The Brahmaputra discharge, on the other hand, shows somewhat weaker relationships with tropical SST. Strong lagged correlations relationships are found with SST in the Bay of Bengal but these are the result of very warm SSTs and exceptional Brahmaputra discharge during the summer of 1998. When this year is removed from the time series, relationships weaken everywhere except in the northwestern Pacific for the June discharge and in areas of the central Pacific straddling the equator for the July discharge. The relationships are relative strong, but they are persistent from month to month and suggest that two different and sequential factors influence Brahmaputra

  8. Longitudinal Alterations of Frontoparietal and Frontotemporal Networks Predict Future Creative Cognitive Ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qunlin; Beaty, Roger E; Wei, Dongtao; Yang, Junyi; Sun, Jiangzhou; Liu, Wei; Yang, Wenjing; Zhang, Qinglin; Qiu, Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Creative cognition is important to academic performance and career success during late adolescence and adulthood. However, there is a lack of longitudinal data on whether brain structural development could predict improvements in creative thinking, and how such changes interact with other cognitive abilities to support creative performance. Here we examined longitudinal alterations of brain structure and their relation to creative cognitive ability in a sample of 159 healthy young adults who were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging 2-3 times over the course of 3 years. The most robust predictor of future creative ability was the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), which in conjunction with baseline creative capacity showed a 31% prediction rate. Longitudinal analysis revealed that slower decreases in gray matter density within left frontoparietal and right frontotemporal clusters predicted enhanced creative ability. Moreoever, the relationship between longitudinal alterations within frontal-related clusters and improved creative ability was moderated by the right DLPFC and working memory ability. We conclude that continuous goal-directed planning and accumulated knowledge are implemented in the right DLPFC and temporal areas, respectively, which in turn support longitudinal gains in creative cognitive ability. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Nailfold capillaroscopy for prediction of novel future severe organ involvement in systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Vanessa; Riccieri, Valeria; Pizzorni, Carmen; Decuman, Saskia; Deschepper, Ellen; Bonroy, Carolien; Sulli, Alberto; Piette, Yves; De Keyser, Filip; Cutolo, Maurizio

    2013-12-01

    Assessment of associations of nailfold videocapillaroscopy (NVC) scleroderma (systemic sclerosis; SSc) ("early," "active," and "late") with novel future severe clinical involvement in 2 independent cohorts. Sixty-six consecutive Belgian and 82 Italian patients with SSc underwent NVC at baseline. Images were blindly assessed and classified into normal, early, active, or late NVC pattern. Clinical evaluation was performed for 9 organ systems (general, peripheral vascular, skin, joint, muscle, gastrointestinal tract, lung, heart, and kidney) according to the Medsger disease severity scale (DSS) at baseline and in the future (18-24 months of followup). Severe clinical involvement was defined as category 2 to 4 per organ of the DSS. Logistic regression analysis (continuous NVC predictor variable) was performed. The OR to develop novel future severe organ involvement was stronger according to more severe NVC patterns and similar in both cohorts. In simple logistic regression analysis the OR in the Belgian/Italian cohort was 2.16 (95% CI 1.19-4.47, p = 0.010)/2.33 (95% CI 1.36-4.22, p = 0.002) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 4.68/5.42 for the active pattern, and 10.14/12.63 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. In multiple logistic regression analysis, adjusting for disease duration, subset, and vasoactive medication, the OR was 2.99 (95% CI 1.31-8.82, p = 0.007)/1.88 (95% CI 1.00-3.71, p = 0.050) for the early NVC SSc pattern, 8.93/3.54 for the active pattern, and 26.69/6.66 for the late pattern versus the normal pattern. Capillaroscopy may be predictive of novel future severe organ involvement in SSc, as attested by 2 independent cohorts.

  10. A Path Tracking Algorithm Using Future Prediction Control with Spike Detection for an Autonomous Vehicle Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aizzat Zakaria

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking is an important aspect of autonomous vehicles. The idea behind trajectory tracking is the ability of the vehicle to follow a predefined path with zero steady state error. The difficulty arises due to the nonlinearity of vehicle dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes a stable tracking control for an autonomous vehicle. An approach that consists of steering wheel control and lateral control is introduced. This control algorithm is used for a non-holonomic navigation problem, namely tracking a reference trajectory in a closed loop form. A proposed future prediction point control algorithm is used to calculate the vehicle's lateral error in order to improve the performance of the trajectory tracking. A feedback sensor signal from the steering wheel angle and yaw rate sensor is used as feedback information for the controller. The controller consists of a relationship between the future point lateral error, the linear velocity, the heading error and the reference yaw rate. This paper also introduces a spike detection algorithm to track the spike error that occurs during GPS reading. The proposed idea is to take the advantage of the derivative of the steering rate. This paper aims to tackle the lateral error problem by applying the steering control law to the vehicle, and proposes a new path tracking control method by considering the future coordinate of the vehicle and the future estimated lateral error. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated by a simulation and a GPS experiment with noisy data. The approach used in this paper is not limited to autonomous vehicles alone since the concept of autonomous vehicle tracking can be used in mobile robot platforms, as the kinematic model of these two platforms is similar.

  11. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  12. Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, Digby D. [Center for Electrochemical Science and Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Steidle Building, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Engelhardt, George [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

  13. Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, Digby D.; Engelhardt, George

    2004-01-01

    The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

  14. In silico and cell-based analyses reveal strong divergence between prediction and observation of T-cell-recognized tumor antigen T-cell epitopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Julien; Guillaume, Philippe; Dojcinovic, Danijel; Karbach, Julia; Coukos, George; Luescher, Immanuel

    2017-07-14

    Tumor exomes provide comprehensive information on mutated, overexpressed genes and aberrant splicing, which can be exploited for personalized cancer immunotherapy. Of particular interest are mutated tumor antigen T-cell epitopes, because neoepitope-specific T cells often are tumoricidal. However, identifying tumor-specific T-cell epitopes is a major challenge. A widely used strategy relies on initial prediction of human leukocyte antigen-binding peptides by in silico algorithms, but the predictive power of this approach is unclear. Here, we used the human tumor antigen NY-ESO-1 (ESO) and the human leukocyte antigen variant HLA-A*0201 (A2) as a model and predicted in silico the 41 highest-affinity, A2-binding 8-11-mer peptides and assessed their binding, kinetic complex stability, and immunogenicity in A2-transgenic mice and on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from ESO-vaccinated melanoma patients. We found that 19 of the peptides strongly bound to A2, 10 of which formed stable A2-peptide complexes and induced CD8 + T cells in A2-transgenic mice. However, only 5 of the peptides induced cognate T cells in humans; these peptides exhibited strong binding and complex stability and contained multiple large hydrophobic and aromatic amino acids. These results were not predicted by in silico algorithms and provide new clues to improving T-cell epitope identification. In conclusion, our findings indicate that only a small fraction of in silico -predicted A2-binding ESO peptides are immunogenic in humans, namely those that have high peptide-binding strength and complex stability. This observation highlights the need for improving in silico predictions of peptide immunogenicity. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  15. Interpreting the Strongly Lensed Supernova iPTF16geu: Time Delay Predictions, Microlensing, and Lensing Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    More, Anupreeta; Oguri, Masamune; More, Surhud [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU, WPI), University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan); Suyu, Sherry H. [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Lee, Chien-Hsiu, E-mail: anupreeta.more@ipmu.jp [Subaru Telescope, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 650 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We present predictions for time delays between multiple images of the gravitationally lensed supernova, iPTF16geu, which was recently discovered from the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). As the supernova is of Type Ia where the intrinsic luminosity is usually well known, accurately measured time delays of the multiple images could provide tight constraints on the Hubble constant. According to our lens mass models constrained by the Hubble Space Telescope F814W image, we expect the maximum relative time delay to be less than a day, which is consistent with the maximum of 100 hr reported by Goobar et al. but places a stringent upper limit. Furthermore, the fluxes of most of the supernova images depart from expected values suggesting that they are affected by microlensing. The microlensing timescales are small enough that they may pose significant problems to measure the time delays reliably. Our lensing rate calculation indicates that the occurrence of a lensed SN in iPTF is likely. However, the observed total magnification of iPTF16geu is larger than expected, given its redshift. This may be a further indication of ongoing microlensing in this system.

  16. Predicting Future High-Cost Schizophrenia Patients Using High-Dimensional Administrative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajuan Wang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe burden of serious and persistent mental illness such as schizophrenia is substantial and requires health-care organizations to have adequate risk adjustment models to effectively allocate their resources to managing patients who are at the greatest risk. Currently available models underestimate health-care costs for those with mental or behavioral health conditions.ObjectivesThe study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive models for identification of future high-cost schizophrenia patients using advanced supervised machine learning methods.MethodsThis was a retrospective study using a payer administrative database. The study cohort consisted of 97,862 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD9 code 295.* from January 2009 to June 2014. Training (n = 34,510 and study evaluation (n = 30,077 cohorts were derived based on 12-month observation and prediction windows (PWs. The target was average total cost/patient/month in the PW. Three models (baseline, intermediate, final were developed to assess the value of different variable categories for cost prediction (demographics, coverage, cost, health-care utilization, antipsychotic medication usage, and clinical conditions. Scalable orthogonal regression, significant attribute selection in high dimensions method, and random forests regression were used to develop the models. The trained models were assessed in the evaluation cohort using the regression R2, patient classification accuracy (PCA, and cost accuracy (CA. The model performance was compared to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC model.ResultsAt top 10% cost cutoff, the final model achieved 0.23 R2, 43% PCA, and 63% CA; in contrast, the CMS-HCC model achieved 0.09 R2, 27% PCA with 45% CA. The final model and the CMS-HCC model identified 33 and 22%, respectively, of total cost at the top 10% cost cutoff.ConclusionUsing advanced feature selection leveraging detailed

  17. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles A. Gullo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large.

  18. Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  19. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  20. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  1. Using the NANA toolkit at home to predict older adults' future depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, J A; Harrison, R F; Brown, L J E; MacLean, L M; Hwang, F; Smith, T; Williams, E A; Timon, C; Adlam, T; Khadra, H; Astell, A J

    2017-04-15

    Depression is currently underdiagnosed among older adults. As part of the Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Aging (NANA) validation study, 40 older adults self-reported their mood using a touchscreen computer over three, one-week periods. Here, we demonstrate the potential of these data to predict future depression status. We analysed data from the NANA validation study using a machine learning approach. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with a logistic model to averages of six measures of mood, with depression status according to the Geriatric Depression Scale 10 weeks later as the outcome variable. We tested multiple values of the selection parameter in order to produce a model with low deviance. We used a cross-validation framework to avoid overspecialisation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the quality of the fitted model. The model we report contained coefficients for two variables: sadness and tiredness, as well as a constant. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for this model was 0.88 (CI: 0.69-0.97). While results are based on a small sample, the methodology for the selection of variables appears suitable for the problem at hand, suggesting promise for a wider study and ultimate deployment with older adults at increased risk of depression. We have identified self-reported scales of sadness and tiredness as sensitive measures which have the potential to predict future depression status in older adults, partially addressing the problem of underdiagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Unrequested information from routine diagnostic chest CT predicts future cardiovascular events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, Peter C.; Gondrie, Martijn J.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Graaf, Yolanda van der; Mali, Willem P.; Oen, Ayke L.; Prokop, Mathias

    2011-01-01

    An increase in the number of CT investigations will likely result in a an increase in unrequested information. Clinical relevance of these findings is unknown. This is the first follow-up study to investigate the prognostic relevance of subclinical coronary (CAC) and aortic calcification (TAC) as contained in routine diagnostic chest CT in a clinical care population. The follow-up of 10,410 subjects (>40 years) from a multicentre, clinical care-based cohort of patients included 240 fatal to 275 non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (mean follow-up 17.8 months). Patients with a history of CVD were excluded. Coronary (0-12) and aortic calcification (0-8) were semi-quantitatively scored. We used Cox proportional-hazard models to compute hazard ratios to predict CVD events. CAC and TAC were significantly and independently predictive of CVD events. Compared with subjects with no calcium, the adjusted risk of a CVD event was 3.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.7-5.2) among patients with severe coronary calcification (CAC score ≥6) and 2.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.0-3.7) among patients with severe aortic calcification (TAC score ≥5). Subclinical vascular calcification on CT is a strong predictor of incident CVD events in a routine clinical care population. (orig.)

  3. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  4. A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

    2017-12-01

    Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

  5. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    Full Text Available Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

  6. Orbitofrontal cortex activity and connectivity predict future depression symptoms in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jingwen; Narayanan, Ananth; Perlman, Greg; Luking, Katherine; DeLorenzo, Christine; Hajcak, Greg; Klein, Daniel N; Kotov, Roman; Mohanty, Aprajita

    2017-10-01

    Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of disability worldwide; however, little is known about pathological mechanisms involved in its development. Research in adolescent depression has focused on reward sensitivity and striatal mechanisms implementing it. The contribution of loss sensitivity to future depression, as well as the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) mechanisms critical for processing losses and rewards, remain unexplored. Furthermore, it is unclear whether OFC functioning interacts with familial history in predicting future depression. In this longitudinal study we recorded functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while 229 adolescent females with or without parental history of depression completed a monetary gambling task. We examined if OFC blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) response and functional connectivity during loss and win feedback was associated with depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively (9 months later), and whether this relationship was moderated by parental history of depression. Reduced OFC response during loss was associated with higher depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively, even after controlling for concurrent depression, specifically in adolescents with parental history of depression. Similarly, increased OFC-posterior insula connectivity during loss was associated with future depression symptoms but this relationship was not moderated by parental history of depression. This study provides the first evidence for loss-related alterations in OFC functioning and its interaction with familial history of depression as possible mechanisms in the development of depression. While the current fMRI literature has mainly focused on reward, the present findings underscore the need to include prefrontal loss processing in existing developmental models of depression.

  7. Predicting the Future Contribution of Himalayan Debris-covered Glaciers to River Discharge: Advances and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quincey, D. J.; Hubbard, B. P.; Klaar, M. J.; Miles, E.; Miles, K.; Rowan, A. V.; King, O.; Watson, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    The glaciers and snowfields of the Himalaya are the ultimate source for the many rivers that flow across the Asian subcontinent, but they are diminishing rapidly in the face of sustained climatic change. Predictions of how future river discharge may vary through space and time are hampered by two major knowledge gaps. First, simulations of glacier mass loss in high Asia are severely limited by data availability and assumptions made in the parameterisation of glacier models. Consequently, projections of glacier change vary widely; in Nepal for example, recent estimates of volumetric ice loss by AD2100 have ranged between 8% and 99%. A second major gap in knowledge lies in the coupling between glaciers and downstream areas, and specifically in quantifying the relative contributions of different sources to river flow. Although it is clear that ice and snow melt dominates flow for considerable distances downstream, how this contribution interacts with groundwater supplies with increasing distance from its source remains poorly understood. This presentation will review recent work that closes some of the knowledge gaps in understanding debris-covered glacier behaviour including new results from drilling work on the Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Additionally, it will report on the outputs from an interdisciplinary study in the Annapurna region of Nepal, which is focussing specifically on disaggregating the relative contributions to flow using isotope-based hydrograph separations. It will finish by exploring the most likely drivers of future changes to water supply, including an evaluation of the impact of glacial lake development, and by identifying the main challenges for future related research.

  8. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  9. Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

  10. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  11. You'll change more than I will: Adults' predictions about their own and others' future preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renoult, Louis; Kopp, Leia; Davidson, Patrick S R; Taler, Vanessa; Atance, Cristina M

    2016-01-01

    It has been argued that adults underestimate the extent to which their preferences will change over time. We sought to determine whether such mispredictions are the result of a difficulty imagining that one's own current and future preferences may differ or whether it also characterizes our predictions about the future preferences of others. We used a perspective-taking task in which we asked young people how much they liked stereotypically young-person items (e.g., Top 40 music, adventure vacations) and stereotypically old-person items (e.g., jazz, playing bridge) now, and how much they would like them in the distant future (i.e., when they are 70 years old). Participants also made these same predictions for a generic same-age, same-sex peer. In a third condition, participants predicted how much a generic older (i.e., age 70) same-sex adult would like items from both categories today. Participants predicted less change between their own current and future preferences than between the current and future preferences of a peer. However, participants estimated that, compared to a current older adult today, their peer would like stereotypically young items more in the future and stereotypically old items less. The fact that peers' distant-future estimated preferences were different from the ones they made for "current" older adults suggests that even though underestimation of change of preferences over time is attenuated when thinking about others, a bias still exists.

  12. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  13. Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

    2016-06-01

    Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

  14. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

  15. Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz JA

    2017-04-01

    false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004–0.25, P=0.001 was significantly related with future falls. Conclusion: The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values. Keywords: aged, balance, cross-cultural adaptation

  16. Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

    1994-12-01

    A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

  17. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-07-29

    Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  18. The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahony, Martin

    2014-02-01

    Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

  19. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  20. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

    2005-01-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  1. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  2. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  3. Current and Future Applications of Biomedical Engineering for Proteomic Profiling: Predictive Biomarkers in Neuro-Traumatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Ganau

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review aims to summarize the impact of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering in defining clinically meaningful predictive biomarkers in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI, a critical worldwide health problem with an estimated 10 billion people affected annually worldwide. Data were collected through a review of the existing English literature performed on Scopus, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, and/or Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Only experimental articles revolving around the management of TBI, in which the role of new devices based on innovative discoveries coming from the field of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering were highlighted, have been included and analyzed in this study. Based on theresults gathered from this research on innovative methods for genomics, epigenomics, and proteomics, their future application in this field seems promising. Despite the outstanding technical challenges of identifying reliable biosignatures for TBI and the mixed nature of studies herein described (single cells proteomics, biofilms, sensors, etc., the clinical implementation of those discoveries will allow us to gain confidence in the use of advanced neuromonitoring modalities with a potential dramatic improvement in the management of those patients.

  4. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  5. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  6. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  7. Processes with weak gauge boson pairs at hadron colliders. Precise predictions and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salfelder, Lukas

    2017-02-08

    In the last years, scattering processes comprising pairs of the massive weak gauge bosons gain more and more attention. Those reactions provide particularly promising means to investigate the very mechanism responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking in the Standard Model of particle physics and to search for new physics entering via the weak sector of the theory. Precisely predicting the differential distributions of the final-state particles in realistic conditions is an essential prerequisite to potentially reveal tiny deviations induced by physics beyond the Standard Model. In this thesis we present a calculation of the next-to-leading order (NLO) electroweak corrections to W-boson pair production at CERNs Large Hadron Collider (LHC), as well as a detailed analysis of vector-boson scattering (VBS) processes at a future high-energy proton.proton collider. In particular, our calculation of the NLO electroweak corrections to the hadronic process pp→W{sup +}W{sup -}→4 leptons takes the leptonic W-boson decays as well as all off-shell effects fully into account and, thus, is the first prediction providing NLO accuracy everywhere in phase space. Employing realistic event selection criteria, we study the influence of the corrections in situations that are typical for the experimental analyses in the high-energy region and for Higgs-boson precision studies in the channel H→WW{sup *}, to which direct W-boson pair production represents an important irreducible background. We observe non-trivial distortions of the differential distributions that, if not properly included in upcoming analyses, could easily be misidentified as first signs of new physics. Furthermore, we compare our predictions to previous results obtained by employing the so-called double-pole approximation. At small and intermediate scales the two approaches show the expected agreement at the level of fractions of a percent, while in the TeV range the differences may easily reach several tens of

  8. Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  9. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  10. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  11. Working disability in Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma: vertigo predicts future dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Cathrine Nansdal; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Myrseth, Erling; Finnkirk, Monica Katrine; Lund-Johansen, Morten

    2013-12-01

    We examined whether reduced hearing, tinnitus, dizziness, and unsteadiness affected the patients' ability to maintain work within a time frame of 2-10 years after diagnosis. A total of 434 consecutive patients were followed at regular intervals. Data on symptoms were scored prospectively and dichotomized by visual analog scales for tinnitus and vertigo. Study design is retrospective. Hearing acuity was scored according to the Gardner-Robertson scale, and unsteadiness was measured on a balance platform. Patients were asked about working status, and scored as receiving governmental compensation for disability. Two hundred six patients were eligible for study. Of these, one died and nine were lost to follow-up. Ninety-seven patients received conservative management, 49 patients recieved gamma knife radiosurgery, and 50 patients were treated by microsurgery. Mean follow-up time was 58.7 months (range, 20-132 months). There was a significant increase in the number of individuals receiving compensation during the study period (P < 0.0001). At baseline, the proportion of pension receivers was within same range as that of the age- and sex-matched Norwegian population (5.61% vs. 6.91%; case-control odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.45-1.49; P = 0.51, not significant). At the final time point, the increase in the number of receivers deviated significantly from the reference population (case-control odds ratio, 3.80; 95% confidence interval 2.71-5.33; P ≤ 0.001). Examining symptoms at first presentation as predictors of future dependence revealed that vertigo and higher mean age were associated with a higher risk (P < 0.001 and P = 0.015, respectively). No other symptoms were predictive of dependence. In a prospectively followed cohort of Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma, vestibular complaints were significant predictors for becoming dependant of disability pension. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2002-01-01

    During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

  13. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  14. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukwa, M.; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 6, dec (2016), č. článku 38779. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : glacial refugia * prediction of future * Ochrolechia austroamericana Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  15. Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Heij (Christiaan); S. Knapp (Sabine)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past

  16. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction of the fut...

  17. Saccades to future ball location reveal memory-based prediction in a virtual-reality interception task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Gabriel; Cooper, Joseph; Rothkopf, Constantin; Hayhoe, Mary

    2013-01-16

    Despite general agreement that prediction is a central aspect of perception, there is relatively little evidence concerning the basis on which visual predictions are made. Although both saccadic and pursuit eye-movements reveal knowledge of the future position of a moving visual target, in many of these studies targets move along simple trajectories through a fronto-parallel plane. Here, using a naturalistic and racquet-based interception task in a virtual environment, we demonstrate that subjects make accurate predictions of visual target motion, even when targets follow trajectories determined by the complex dynamics of physical interactions and the head and body are unrestrained. Furthermore, we found that, following a change in ball elasticity, subjects were able to accurately adjust their prebounce predictions of the ball's post-bounce trajectory. This suggests that prediction is guided by experience-based models of how information in the visual image will change over time.

  18. Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

  19. An Experimental Evaluation of Competing Age-Predictions of Future Time Perspective between Workplace and Retirement Domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerry, Matthew J; Embretson, Susan E

    2017-01-01

    Future time perspective (FTP) is defined as "perceptions of the future as being limited or open-ended" (Lang and Carstensen, 2002; p. 125). The construct figures prominently in both workplace and retirement domains, but the age-predictions are competing: Workplace research predicts decreasing FTP age-change, in contrast, retirement scholars predict increasing FTP age-change. For the first time, these competing predictions are pitted in an experimental manipulation of subjective life expectancy (SLE). A sample of N = 207 older adults (age 45-60) working full-time (>30-h/week) were randomly assigned to SLE questions framed as either 'Live-to' or 'Die-by' to evaluate competing predictions for FTP. Results indicate general support for decreasing age-change in FTP, indicated by independent-sample t -tests showing lower FTP in the 'Die-by' framing condition. Further general-linear model analyses were conducted to test for interaction effects of retirement planning with experimental framings on FTP and intended retirement; While retirement planning buffered FTP's decrease, simple-effects also revealed that retirement planning increased intentions for sooner retirement, but lack of planning increased intentions for later retirement. Discussion centers on practical implications of our findings and consequences validity evidence in future empirical research of FTP in both workplace and retirement domains.

  20. Prediction of Human Drug Targets and Their Interactions Using Machine Learning Methods: Current and Future Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Abhigyan; Kumari, Priyanka; Chaube, Radha

    2018-01-01

    Identification of drug targets and drug target interactions are important steps in the drug-discovery pipeline. Successful computational prediction methods can reduce the cost and time demanded by the experimental methods. Knowledge of putative drug targets and their interactions can be very useful for drug repurposing. Supervised machine learning methods have been very useful in drug target prediction and in prediction of drug target interactions. Here, we describe the details for developing prediction models using supervised learning techniques for human drug target prediction and their interactions.

  1. Midregional-proAtrial Natriuretic Peptide and High Sensitive Troponin T Strongly Predict Adverse Outcome in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Repair of Mitral Valve Regurgitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochen Wöhrle

    Full Text Available It is not known whether biomarkers of hemodynamic stress, myocardial necrosis, and renal function might predict adverse outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous repair of severe mitral valve insufficiency. Thus, we aimed to assess the predictive value of various established and emerging biomarkers for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE in these patients.Thirty-four patients with symptomatic severe mitral valve insufficiency with a mean STS-Score for mortality of 12.6% and a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 19.7% undergoing MitraClip therapy were prospectively included in this study. Plasma concentrations of mid regional-proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP, Cystatin C, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, high-sensitive troponin T (hsTnT, N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, galectin-3, and soluble ST-2 (interleukin 1 receptor-like 1 were measured directly before procedure. MACE was defined as cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF.During a median follow-up of 211 days (interquartile range 133 to 333 days, 9 patients (26.5% experienced MACE (death: 7 patients, rehospitalization for HF: 2 patients. Thirty day MACE-rate was 5.9% (death: 2 patients, no rehospitalization for HF. Baseline concentrations of hsTnT (Median 92.6 vs 25.2 ng/L, NT-proBNP (Median 11251 vs 1974 pg/mL and MR-proANP (Median 755.6 vs 318.3 pmol/L, all p<0.001 were clearly higher in those experiencing an event vs event-free patients, while other clinical variables including STS-Score and logistic EuroSCORE did not differ significantly. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, NT-proBNP and in particular hsTnT and MR-proANP above the median discriminated between those experiencing an event vs event-free patients. This was further corroborated by C-statistics where areas under the ROC curve for prediction of MACE using the respective median values were 0.960 for MR-proANP, 0.907 for NT-proBNP, and 0.822 for hsTnT.MR-proANP and hsTnT strongly

  2. THE SYSTEMATICS OF STRONG LENS MODELING QUANTIFIED: THE EFFECTS OF CONSTRAINT SELECTION AND REDSHIFT INFORMATION ON MAGNIFICATION, MASS, AND MULTIPLE IMAGE PREDICTABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Traci L.; Sharon, Keren, E-mail: tljohn@umich.edu [University of Michigan, Department of Astronomy, 1085 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1107 (United States)

    2016-11-20

    Until now, systematic errors in strong gravitational lens modeling have been acknowledged but have never been fully quantified. Here, we launch an investigation into the systematics induced by constraint selection. We model the simulated cluster Ares 362 times using random selections of image systems with and without spectroscopic redshifts and quantify the systematics using several diagnostics: image predictability, accuracy of model-predicted redshifts, enclosed mass, and magnification. We find that for models with >15 image systems, the image plane rms does not decrease significantly when more systems are added; however, the rms values quoted in the literature may be misleading as to the ability of a model to predict new multiple images. The mass is well constrained near the Einstein radius in all cases, and systematic error drops to <2% for models using >10 image systems. Magnification errors are smallest along the straight portions of the critical curve, and the value of the magnification is systematically lower near curved portions. For >15 systems, the systematic error on magnification is ∼2%. We report no trend in magnification error with the fraction of spectroscopic image systems when selecting constraints at random; however, when using the same selection of constraints, increasing this fraction up to ∼0.5 will increase model accuracy. The results suggest that the selection of constraints, rather than quantity alone, determines the accuracy of the magnification. We note that spectroscopic follow-up of at least a few image systems is crucial because models without any spectroscopic redshifts are inaccurate across all of our diagnostics.

  3. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  4. Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Prediction intervals for future BMI values of individual children - a non-parametric approach by quantile boosting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayr Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The construction of prediction intervals (PIs for future body mass index (BMI values of individual children based on a recent German birth cohort study with n = 2007 children is problematic for standard parametric approaches, as the BMI distribution in childhood is typically skewed depending on age. Methods We avoid distributional assumptions by directly modelling the borders of PIs by additive quantile regression, estimated by boosting. We point out the concept of conditional coverage to prove the accuracy of PIs. As conditional coverage can hardly be evaluated in practical applications, we conduct a simulation study before fitting child- and covariate-specific PIs for future BMI values and BMI patterns for the present data. Results The results of our simulation study suggest that PIs fitted by quantile boosting cover future observations with the predefined coverage probability and outperform the benchmark approach. For the prediction of future BMI values, quantile boosting automatically selects informative covariates and adapts to the age-specific skewness of the BMI distribution. The lengths of the estimated PIs are child-specific and increase, as expected, with the age of the child. Conclusions Quantile boosting is a promising approach to construct PIs with correct conditional coverage in a non-parametric way. It is in particular suitable for the prediction of BMI patterns depending on covariates, since it provides an interpretable predictor structure, inherent variable selection properties and can even account for longitudinal data structures.

  6. Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

    2011-10-01

    Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (Precall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, Jakob; Gijsenberg, Maarten; Verhoef, Pieter C

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  8. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, J.E.; Gijsenberg, M.J.; Verhoef, P.C.

    2017-01-01

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  9. THE FUTURE OF TOXICOLOGY-PREDICTIVE TOXICOLOGY: AN EXPANDED VIEW OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    A chemistry approach to predictive toxicology relies on structure−activity relationship (SAR) modeling to predict biological activity from chemical structure. Such approaches have proven capabilities when applied to well-defined toxicity end points or regions of chemical space. T...

  10. <strong>Mini-project>

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katajainen, Jyrki

    2008-01-01

    In this project the goal is to develop the safe * family of containers for the CPH STL. The containers to be developed should be safer and more reliable than any of the existing implementations. A special focus should be put on strong exception safety since none of the existing prototypes available...

  11. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  12. Exploiting the Past and the Future in Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Frasconi, P

    1999-01-01

    predictions based on variable ranges of dependencies. These architectures extend recurrent neural networks, introducing non-causal bidirectional dynamics to capture both upstream and downstream information. The prediction algorithm is completed by the use of mixtures of estimators that leverage evolutionary......Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alpha-helix, beta-sheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three-dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network...

  13. Strong interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froissart, Marcel

    1976-01-01

    Strong interactions are introduced by their more obvious aspect: nuclear forces. In hadron family, the nucleon octet, OMEGA - decuplet, and quark triply are successively considered. Pion wave having been put at the origin of nuclear forces, low energy phenomena are described, the force being explained as an exchange of structure corresponding to a Regge trajectory in a variable rotating state instead of the exchange of a well defined particle. At high energies the concepts of pomeron, parton and stratons are introduced, pionization and fragmentation are briefly differentiated [fr

  14. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  15. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  16. The current and future use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics

    OpenAIRE

    Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to...

  17. THE U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST REDEFINITION AND THE FUTURE OF ITS LEADERSHIP IN CRITICAL REGIONS. STRONG AND SUSTAINABLE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iñigo ARBIOL OÑATE

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last half of the 20th century, the United States provided a strong centripetal leadership that brought the country to form an economy that remains the bedrock of the global financial system. America’s military superiority remains unrivaled. While far from perfect, the U.S. has the oldest democratic constitutional regime, as well as strong institutions and rule of law to accompany it, as Americans continue to enjoy an unmatched quality of life. In general the U.S. enjoys still a privileged position in the world today. For the last one hundred years, American foreign policy has rested on a commitment to use its power. Nevertheless, many criticize that over the last two decades, the U.S. has scaled down its presence, ambitions and promises in the world. Is the U.S. abnegating its leadership? Are U.S. national interests changing and refocusing towards home affairs? Or will the 21st century, due to fragile alternative powers (EU, China, Russia, … be again an American century?

  18. Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

  19. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-05-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems.

  20. Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, Melissa; Allard, Robert; Bédard, Lucie; Latreille, Jérôme; Buckeridge, David L

    2016-11-01

    The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection. The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration. A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection. The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. The predictive power of dividend yields for future inflation: Money illusion or rational causes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    slope coefficients that increase numerically with the horizon in regressions of future inflation onto the dividend yield, in accordance with the data. A purely rational version of the model with no money illusion, but with a link from expected inflation to real consumption growth, also generates...

  2. Predicting Gas Production from future gas discoveries in the Netherlands: Quantity, location, timing, quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutgert, J.; Mijnlieff, H.; Breunese, J.

    2005-01-01

    Recent policy and market developments have raised the question not only as to how much gas remains to be discovered in the Netherlands but also where and when it will be produced and of what quality. These questions are addressed by compiling a 'firm futures' database, estimating the 'potential

  3. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  4. Subjective memory complaints in general practice predicts future dementia: a 4-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldorff, Frans Boch; Vogel, Asmus Mejling; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2012-01-01

    Many older patients in general practice have subjective memory complaints (SMC); however, not all share this information with their general practitioner (GP). The association between SMC and future cognitive decline or dementia is not clear, especially in a general practice population. The aim...

  5. An Economic Model to Predict Future State of Nature and Corresponding Strategic Posture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-09

    16 Strategic Thinking ...80 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when...successfully hedge and bet on military future military capabilities. Reductions in the budget and the devaluation of the dollar can lead to constraints on

  6. Alternative Measures of Self-Rated Health for Predicting Mortality Among Older People: Is Past or Future Orientation More Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Kenneth F; Wilkinson, Lindsay R

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic validity of alternative measures of health ratings, including those that tap temporal reflections, on adult mortality. The study uses a national sample of 1,266 Americans 50-74 years old in 1995, with vital status tracked through 2005, to compare the effect of 3 types of health ratings on mortality: conventional indicator of self-rated health (SRH), age comparison form of SRH, and health ratings that incorporate temporal dimensions. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of mortality associated with alternative health ratings while adjusting for health conditions, lifestyle factors, and status characteristics and resources. Self-rated health was a consistent predictor of mortality, but the respondent's expected health rating-10 years in the future-was an independent predictor. Future health expectations were more important than past (recalled change) in predicting mortality risk: People with more negative expectations of future health were less likely to survive. The findings reveal the importance of future time perspective for older people and suggest that it is more useful to query older people about their future health expectations than about how their health has changed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-01

    To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  9. Genome-based prediction of common diseases: Methodological considerations for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.J.W. Janssens (Cécile); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe translation of emerging genomic knowledge into public health and clinical care is one of the major challenges for the coming decades. At the moment, genome-based prediction of common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, is still not informative. Our

  10. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  11. The relationship between formative and summative examinations and PANCE scores; can the past predict the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Scott; Stallman, John; Lee, Louise; Klingaman, Kathy; Holmerud, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how a systematic analysis of students at risk for failing the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) may be used to identify which students may benefit from intervention prior to taking the PANCE and thus increase the likelihood of successful completion of the PANCE. The intervention developed and implemented uses various formative and summative examinations to predict students' PANCE scores with a high degree of accuracy. Eight end-of-rotation exams (EOREs) based upon discipline-specific diseases and averaging 100 questions each, a 360-question PANCE simulation (SUMM I), the PACKRAT, and a 700-question summative cognitive examination based upon the NCCPA blueprint (SUMM II) were administered to all students enrolled in the program during the clinical year starting in January 2010 and concluding in December 2010. When the PACKRAT, SUMM I, SUMM II, and the surgery, women's health, and pediatrics EOREs were combined in a regression model, an Rvalue of 0.87 and an R2 of 0.75 were obtained. A predicted score was generated for the class of 2009. The predicted PANCE score based upon this model had a final correlation of 0.790 with the actual PANCE score. This pilot study demonstrated that valid predicted scores could be generated from formative and summative examinations to provide valuable feedback and to identify students at risk of failing the PANCE.

  12. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  13. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  14. Reading the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettle, Keith

    Given the strong sense of passing time which seems to be wired into human beings, it is only natural that the Year 2000, or Y2K in contemporary jargon, should lead to serious speculation about the future. Reading and literacy, old skills relatively speaking, continue rightly to figure in those predictions (along with the technologically advanced…

  15. Design Rework Prediction in Concurrent Design Environment: Current Trends and Future Research Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Arundachawat, Panumas; Roy, Rajkumar; Al-Ashaab, Ahmed; Shehab, Essam

    2009-01-01

    Organised by: Cranfield University This paper aims to present state-of-the-art and formulate future research areas on design rework in concurrent design environment. Related literatures are analysed to extract the key factors which impact design rework. Design rework occurs due to changes from upstream design activities and/or by feedbacks from downstream design activities. Design rework is considered as negative iteration; therefore, value in design activities will be increase...

  16. Modeling of steroid estrogen contamination in UK and South Australian rivers predicts modest increases in concentrations in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher; Williams, Richard; Kanda, Rakesh; Churchley, John; He, Ying; Thomas, Shaun; Goonan, Peter; Kumar, Anu; Jobling, Susan

    2013-07-02

    The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions. The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.

  17. Can personality traits predict the future development of heart disease in hospitalized psychiatric veterans?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Wright; Kunik, Mark E; Springer, Justin; Graham, David P

    2013-11-01

    To examine which personality traits are associated with the new onset of chronic coronary heart disease (CHD) in psychiatric inpatients within 16 years after their initial evaluation. We theorized that personality measures of depression, anxiety, hostility, social isolation, and substance abuse would predict CHD development in psychiatric inpatients. We used a longitudinal database of psychological test data from 349 Veterans first admitted to a psychiatric unit between October 1, 1983, and September 30, 1987. Veterans Affairs and national databases were assessed to determine the development of new-onset chronic CHD over the intervening 16-year period. New-onset CHD developed in 154 of the 349 (44.1%) subjects. Thirty-one psychometric variables from five personality tests significantly predicted the development of CHD. We performed a factor analysis of these variables because they overlapped and four factors emerged, with positive adaptive functioning the only significant factor (OR=0.798, p=0.038). These results support previous research linking personality traits to the development of CHD, extending this association to a population of psychiatric inpatients. Compilation of these personality measures showed that 31 overlapping psychometric variables predicted those Veterans who developed a diagnosis of heart disease within 16 years after their initial psychiatric hospitalization. Our results suggest that personality variables measuring positive adaptive functioning are associated with a reduced risk of developing chronic CHD.

  18. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  19. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  20. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  1. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  2. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Jaffe

    Full Text Available Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  3. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  4. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

  5. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  6. Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrahimi, Nader

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers prediction of unknown number of failures in a future inspection of a group of in-service units based on number of failures observed from an earlier inspection. We develop a flexible Bayesian model and calculate Bayesian estimator for this unknown number and other quantities of interest. The paper also includes an illustration of our method in an example about heat exchanger. A main advantage of our approach is in its nonparametric nature. By nonparametric here we simply mean that no assumption is required about the failure time distribution of a unit

  7. Quantitative characterization of myocardial infarction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts future cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauly John M

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR can provide quantitative data of the myocardial tissue utilizing high spatial and temporal resolution along with exquisite tissue contrast. Previous studies have correlated myocardial scar tissue with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia. This study was conducted to evaluate whether characterization of myocardial infarction by CMR can predict cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM. Results We consecutively studied 86 patients with ICM (LVEF Conclusion Quantification of the scar volume and scar percentage by CMR is superior to LVEDV, LVESV, and LVEF in prognosticating the future likelihood of the development of cardiovascular events in patients with ICM.

  8. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesper Bruun

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1 communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category, (2 communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category, and (3 social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI scores. We find highly significant correlations (p<0.001 between network centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network, the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation

  9. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

  10. Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Richard C; Currie, Bart J; Lindsay, Michael D; Mackenzie, John S; Ritchie, Scott A; Whelan, Peter I

    2009-03-02

    Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

  11. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression. PMID:22060677

  12. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Berg Martha

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11 and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44% of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22 suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10 of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003. Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression.

  13. Trying to predict the future – resource planning and allocation in CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloom, Kenneth; Fisk, Ian; Kreuzer, Peter; Merino, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In the large LHC experiments the majority of computing resources are provided by the participating countries. These resource pledges account for more than three quarters of the total available computing. The experiments are asked to give indications of their requests three years in advance and to evolve these as the details and constraints become clearer. In this paper we will discuss the resource planning techniques used in CMS to predict the computing resources several years in advance. We will discuss how we attempt to implement the activities of the computing model in spread-sheets and formulas to calculate the needs. We will talk about how those needs are reflected in the 2012 running and how the planned long shutdown of the LHC in 2013 and 2014 impacts the planning process and the outcome. In the end we will speculate on the computing needs in the second major run of LHC.

  14. Trying to Predict the Future - Resource Planning and Allocation in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Kreuzer, Peter; Fisk, Ian; Merino, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In the large LHC experiments the majority of computing resources are provided by the participating countries. These resource pledges account for more than three quarters of the total available computing. The experiments are asked to give indications of their requests three years in advance and to evolve these as the details and constraints become clearer. In this presentation we will discuss the resource planning techniques used in CMS to predict the computing resources several years in advance. We will discuss how we attempt to implement the activities of the computing model in spreadsheets and formulas to calculate the needs. We will talk about how those needs are reflected in the 2012 running and how the planned long shutdown of the LHC in 2013 and 2014 impact the planning process and the outcome. In the end we will speculate on the computing needs in the second major run of LHC.

  15. Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

  16. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  17. Development of predictions of future pollution problems. Socio-economic environmental studies series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flinn, J.E.; Reimers, R.S.

    1974-03-01

    The report describes the results of a program to identify, rank and project short- and intermediate-term future pollution problems. Identification was accomplished using three independent search approaches based on industrial production, environmental, and societal trends and activity. Primary emphasis was placed on the environmental trends as gleaned from EPA, Battelle, Literature, and other sources. An initial list of problems was compiled with specific stressors identified with each. Nine ranking factors were devised to select ten most serious problems from the initial list. The factors included: persistence; mobility/pervasiveness; environmental, technological, social, and political complexity; physiological risk; research needs; and bulk or volume of the pollutant. The ten problems selected by this method were further ranked in order of relative importance. The ten selected problems in rank order are as follows: (1) Impacts of new energy initiatives; (2) Geophysical modifications of the earth; (3) Trace element (metal) contaminants; (4) Proliferating hazardous and toxic chemicals; (5) Emissions from new automobile fuels, additives, and control devices; (6) Disposal of waste sludges, liquids, and solid residues; (7) Critical radiation problems; (8) Fine particulates; (9) Expanding drinking water contamination; (10) Irrigation (impoundment) practices. Five to ten year projections were made of the ten problems which resulted

  18. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  19. arXiv Improved Monte Carlo Glauber predictions at present and future nuclear colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Loizides, Constantin; d'Enterria, David

    2018-05-23

    We present the results of an improved Monte Carlo Glauber (MCG) model of relevance for collisions involving nuclei at center-of-mass energies of BNL RHIC ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=0.2$ TeV), CERN LHC ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=2.76$-$8.8$ TeV), and proposed future hadron colliders ($\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}\\approx 10$-$63$ TeV). The inelastic pp cross sections as a function of $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}$ are obtained from a precise data-driven parametrization that exploits the many available measurements at LHC collision energies. We describe the nuclear transverse profile with two separated 2-parameter Fermi distributions for protons and neutrons to account for their different densities close to the nuclear periphery. Furthermore, we model the nucleon degrees of freedom inside the nucleus through a lattice with a minimum nodal separation, combined with a "recentering and reweighting" procedure, that overcomes some limitations of previous MCG approaches. The nuclear overlap function, number of participant nucleons and binary nucleon-nuc...

  20. Do AAO-HNSF CORE Grants Predict Future NIH Funding Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eloy, Jean Anderson; Svider, Peter F; Kanumuri, Vivek V; Folbe, Adam J; Setzen, Michael; Baredes, Soly

    2014-08-01

    To determine (1) whether academic otolaryngologists who have received an American Academy of Otolaryngology- Head and Neck Surgery Foundation (AAO-HNSF) Centralized Otolaryngology Research Efforts (CORE) grant are more likely to procure future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding; (2) whether CORE grants or NIH Career Development (K) awards have a stronger association with scholarly impact. Historical cohort. Scholarly impact, as measured by the h-index, publication experience, and prior grant history, were determined for CORE-funded and non-CORE-funded academic otolaryngologists. All individuals were assessed for NIH funding history. Of 192 academic otolaryngologists with a CORE funding history, 39.6% had active or prior NIH awards versus 15.1% of 1002 non-CORE-funded faculty (P productivity than those with CORE funding history. Both cohorts had higher scholarly impact values than previously published figures among academic otolaryngologists, highlighting that both CORE grants and NIH K-grants awards are effective career development resources. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

  1. Persistent high job demands and reactivity to mental stress predict future ambulatory blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Cropley, M

    2000-05-01

    To test the hypothesis that work stress (persistent high job demands over 1 year) in combination with high reactivity to mental stress predict ambulatory blood pressure. Assessment of cardiovascular responses to standardized behavioural tasks, job demands, and ambulatory blood pressure over a working day and evening after 12 months. We studied 81 school teachers (26 men, 55 women), 36 of whom experienced persistent high job demands over 1 year, while 45 reported lower job demands. Participants were divided on the basis of high and low job demands, and high and low systolic pressure reactions to an uncontrollable stress task. Blood pressure and concurrent physical activity were monitored using ambulatory apparatus from 0900 to 2230 h on a working day. Cardiovascular stress reactivity was associated with waist/hip ratio. Systolic and diastolic pressure during the working day were greater in high job demand participants who were stress reactive than in other groups, after adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, body mass index and negative affectivity. The difference was not accounted for by variations in physical activity. Cardiovascular stress reactivity and sustained psychosocial stress may act in concert to increase cardiovascular risk in susceptible individuals.

  2. An oracle: antituberculosis pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics, clinical correlation, and clinical trial simulations to predict the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasipanodya, Jotam; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2011-01-01

    Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

  3. Application of current and future satellite missions to hydrologic prediction in transboundary rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancamaria, S.; Clark, E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2010-12-01

    temporal repeat (10 days for current satellites) and to gaps in the water mask, water volume estimates are meaningful only at the monthly scale. Furthermore, this information is limited to channels with wider than 250-500 m. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is intended to be launched in 2020, will provide global maps of water elevations, with a spatial resolution of 100 m and errors on the water elevation equal to or below 10 cm. The SWOT Ka band interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), will not be affected by cloud cover (aside from infrequent heavy rain); therefore, estimation of the water volume change on the Ganges and on the Brahmaputra upstream to the Bangladesh provided by SWOT should be much more accurate in space and time than can currently be achieved. We discuss the implications of future SWOT observations in the context of our preliminary work on the Ganges-Brahmaputra Rivers using current generation satellite data.

  4. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  5. Functional immunomics: microarray analysis of IgG autoantibody repertoires predicts the future response of mice to induced diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Francisco J; Hagedorn, Peter H; Elizur, Gad; Merbl, Yifat; Domany, Eytan; Cohen, Irun R

    2004-10-05

    One's present repertoire of antibodies encodes the history of one's past immunological experience. Can the present autoantibody repertoire be consulted to predict resistance or susceptibility to the future development of an autoimmune disease? Here, we developed an antigen microarray chip and used bioinformatic analysis to study a model of type 1 diabetes developing in nonobese diabetic male mice in which the disease was accelerated and synchronized by exposing the mice to cyclophosphamide at 4 weeks of age. We obtained sera from 19 individual mice, treated the mice to induce cyclophosphamide-accelerated diabetes (CAD), and found, as expected, that 9 mice became severely diabetic, whereas 10 mice permanently resisted diabetes. We again obtained serum from each mouse after CAD induction. We then analyzed, by using rank-order and superparamagnetic clustering, the patterns of antibodies in individual mice to 266 different antigens spotted on the chip. A selected panel of 27 different antigens (10% of the array) revealed a pattern of IgG antibody reactivity in the pre-CAD sera that discriminated between the mice resistant or susceptible to CAD with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity (P = 0.017). Surprisingly, the set of IgG antibodies that was informative before CAD induction did not separate the resistant and susceptible groups after the onset of CAD; new antigens became critical for post-CAD repertoire discrimination. Thus, at least for a model disease, present antibody repertoires can predict future disease, predictive and diagnostic repertoires can differ, and decisive information about immune system behavior can be mined by bioinformatic technology. Repertoires matter.

  6. Predicting hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in a future phase III HIV vaccine trial among high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giocos, Georgina; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie

    2008-11-01

    The present study sought to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted stated hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in future Phase III HIV vaccine trials among South African adolescents. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) significantly predicted WTP. Of all the predictors, Subjective norms significantly predicted WTP (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.06-1.34). A stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that Subjective Norms (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.07-1.34) and Attitude towards participation in an HIV vaccine trial (OR = 1.32, 95% C.I. = 1.00-1.74) were significant predictors of WTP. The addition of Knowledge of HIV vaccines and HIV vaccine trials, Perceived self-risk of HIV infection, Health-promoting behaviours and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS yielded non-significant results. These findings provide support for the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and suggest that psychosocial factors may play an important role in WTP in Phase III HIV vaccine trials among adolescents.

  7. Climate-growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate-growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in

  8. Synergy for a Strong Future FY 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devore, L.; Chrzanowski, P.

    2008-01-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC is committed to delivering the best combination of scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations in support of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's critical national security mission. LLNS was formed specifically to manage LLNL for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. LLNS consists of a team of five organizations renowned for their expertise and accomplishments throughout the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and beyond - Bechtel National, University of California, Babcock and Wilcox, Washington Division of URS Corporation, and Battelle. Bechtel is the nation's largest engineering and construction firm and a leader in project management. The University of California is the world's largest public research institution. Babcock and Wilcox and the Washington Division of URS Corporation are top nuclear facilities contractors and between them manage four of DOE's five safest sites. Battelle is a global leader in science and technology development and commercialization. The LLNS Board of Governors provides oversight for the management of the Laboratory and holds the Director and LLNS President responsible for the Laboratory's performance. The Board has seven standing committees that assist in assessing Laboratory performance and monitoring risks and internal controls. Through the Board of Governors, the Laboratory can reach back to LLNS partner organizations to help ensure that it fulfills its national security mission with excellence in scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations. LLNS assumed management of LLNL on October 1, 2007. This report highlights LLNS accomplishments in FY2008, its first year as the Laboratory's managing contractor. It is clear that LLNS and the Laboratory have exploited numerous synergies inherent in their relationship - for example, science and engineering, mission and operations, LLNS partners and LLNL directorates - to notable success.

  9. Improved Monte Carlo Glauber predictions at present and future nuclear colliders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizides, Constantin; Kamin, Jason; d'Enterria, David

    2018-05-01

    We present the results of an improved Monte Carlo Glauber (MCG) model of relevance for collisions involving nuclei at center-of-mass energies of the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (√{sNN}=0.2 TeV), CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) (√{sNN}=2.76 -8.8 TeV ), and proposed future hadron colliders (√{sNN}≈10 -63 TeV). The inelastic p p cross sections as a function of √{sNN} are obtained from a precise data-driven parametrization that exploits the many available measurements at LHC collision energies. We describe the nuclear density of a lead nucleus with two separated two-parameter Fermi distributions for protons and neutrons to account for their different densities close to the nuclear periphery. Furthermore, we model the nucleon degrees of freedom inside the nucleus through a lattice with a minimum nodal separation, combined with a "recentering and reweighting" procedure, that overcomes some limitations of previous MCG approaches. The nuclear overlap function, number of participant nucleons and binary nucleon-nucleon collisions, participant eccentricity and triangularity, overlap area, and average path length are presented in intervals of percentile centrality for lead-lead (PbPb) and proton-lead (p Pb ) collisions at all collision energies. We demonstrate for collisions at √{sNN}=5.02 TeV that the central values of the Glauber quantities change by up to 7% in a few bins of reaction centrality, due to the improvements implemented, though typically they remain within the previously assigned systematic uncertainties, while their new associated uncertainties are generally smaller (mostly below 5%) at all centralities than for earlier calculations. Tables for all quantities versus centrality at present and foreseen collision energies involving Pb nuclei, as well as for collisions of XeXe at √{sNN}=5.44 TeV , and AuAu and CuCu at √{sNN}=0.2 TeV , are provided. The source code for the improved Monte Carlo Glauber model is made publicly available.

  10. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  11. Burnout during nursing education predicts lower occupational preparedness and future clinical performance: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudman, Ann; Gustavsson, J Petter

    2012-08-01

    Early-career burnout among nurses can influence health and professional development, as well as quality of care. However, the prospective occupational consequences of study burnout have not previously been investigated in a national sample using a longitudinal design. To prospectively monitor study burnout for a national sample of nursing students during their years in higher education and at follow-up 1 year post graduation. Further, to relate the possible development of study burnout to prospective health and life outcomes, as well as student and occupational outcomes. A longitudinal cohort of Swedish nursing students (within the population-based LANE (Longitudinal Analysis of Nursing Education/Entry) study) from all sites of education in Sweden was surveyed annually. Data were collected at four points in time over 4 years: three times during higher education and 1 year post graduation. : A longitudinal sample of 1702 respondents was prospectively followed from late autumn 2002 to spring 2006. Mean level changes of study burnout (as measured by the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, i.e. the Exhaustion and Disengagement subscales) across time, as well as prospective effects of baseline study burnout and changes in study burnout levels, were estimated using Latent Growth Curve Modeling. An increase in study burnout (from 30% to 41%) across 3 years in higher education was found, and levels of both Exhaustion and Disengagement increased significantly across the years in education (pdevelopment of study burnout, predicted lower levels of in-class learner engagement and occupational preparedness in the final year. At follow-up 1 year post graduation, earlier development of study burnout was related to lower mastery of occupational tasks, less research utilization in everyday clinical practice and higher turnover intentions. The results suggest that study burnout may have interfered with learning and psychological well-being. Aspects related to work skills and intention to

  12. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul S. Larsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

  13. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  14. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  15. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bocchiola

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060 hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2, nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated.

    The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of

  16. Evaluation of different biomarkers to predict individual radiosensitivity in an inter-laboratory comparison--lessons for future studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burkhard Greve

    Full Text Available Radiotherapy is a powerful cure for several types of solid tumours, but its application is often limited because of severe side effects in individual patients. With the aim to find biomarkers capable of predicting normal tissue side reactions we analysed the radiation responses of cells from individual head and neck tumour and breast cancer patients of different clinical radiosensitivity in a multicentric study. Multiple parameters of cellular radiosensitivity were analysed in coded samples of peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs and derived lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs from 15 clinical radio-hypersensitive tumour patients and compared to age- and sex-matched non-radiosensitive patient controls and 15 lymphoblastoid cell lines from age- and sex- matched healthy controls of the KORA study. Experimental parameters included ionizing radiation (IR-induced cell death (AnnexinV, induction and repair of DNA strand breaks (Comet assay, induction of yH2AX foci (as a result of DNA double strand breaks, and whole genome expression analyses. Considerable inter-individual differences in IR-induced DNA strand breaks and their repair and/or cell death could be detected in primary and immortalised cells with the applied assays. The group of clinically radiosensitive patients was not unequivocally distinguishable from normal responding patients nor were individual overreacting patients in the test system unambiguously identified by two different laboratories. Thus, the in vitro test systems investigated here seem not to be appropriate for a general prediction of clinical reactions during or after radiotherapy due to the experimental variability compared to the small effect of radiation sensitivity. Genome-wide expression analysis however revealed a set of 67 marker genes which were differentially induced 6 h after in vitro-irradiation in lymphocytes from radio-hypersensitive and non-radiosensitive patients. These results warrant future validation in larger

  17. Model predictions of the results of interferometric observations for stars under conditions of strong gravitational scattering by black holes and wormholes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shatskiy, A. A.; Kovalev, Yu. Yu.; Novikov, I. D.

    2015-01-01

    The characteristic and distinctive features of the visibility amplitude of interferometric observations for compact objects like stars in the immediate vicinity of the central black hole in our Galaxy are considered. These features are associated with the specifics of strong gravitational scattering of point sources by black holes, wormholes, or black-white holes. The revealed features will help to determine the most important topological characteristics of the central object in our Galaxy: whether this object possesses the properties of only a black hole or also has characteristics unique to wormholes or black-white holes. These studies can be used to interpret the results of optical, infrared, and radio interferometric observations

  18. Model predictions of the results of interferometric observations for stars under conditions of strong gravitational scattering by black holes and wormholes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatskiy, A. A., E-mail: shatskiy@asc.rssi.ru; Kovalev, Yu. Yu.; Novikov, I. D. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Astro Space Center, Lebedev Physical Institute (Russian Federation)

    2015-05-15

    The characteristic and distinctive features of the visibility amplitude of interferometric observations for compact objects like stars in the immediate vicinity of the central black hole in our Galaxy are considered. These features are associated with the specifics of strong gravitational scattering of point sources by black holes, wormholes, or black-white holes. The revealed features will help to determine the most important topological characteristics of the central object in our Galaxy: whether this object possesses the properties of only a black hole or also has characteristics unique to wormholes or black-white holes. These studies can be used to interpret the results of optical, infrared, and radio interferometric observations.

  19. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  20. Strongly interacting Fermi gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakr W.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Strongly interacting gases of ultracold fermions have become an amazingly rich test-bed for many-body theories of fermionic matter. Here we present our recent experiments on these systems. Firstly, we discuss high-precision measurements on the thermodynamics of a strongly interacting Fermi gas across the superfluid transition. The onset of superfluidity is directly observed in the compressibility, the chemical potential, the entropy, and the heat capacity. Our measurements provide benchmarks for current many-body theories on strongly interacting fermions. Secondly, we have studied the evolution of fermion pairing from three to two dimensions in these gases, relating to the physics of layered superconductors. In the presence of p-wave interactions, Fermi gases are predicted to display toplogical superfluidity carrying Majorana edge states. Two possible avenues in this direction are discussed, our creation and direct observation of spin-orbit coupling in Fermi gases and the creation of fermionic molecules of 23Na 40K that will feature strong dipolar interactions in their absolute ground state.

  1. A Brief Survey of Patients' First Impression after CPAP Titration Predicts Future CPAP Adherence: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balachandran, Jay S.; Yu, Xiaohong; Wroblewski, Kristen; Mokhlesi, Babak

    2013-01-01

    patient populations is warranted. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 207. Citation: Balachandran JS; Yu X; Wroblewski K; Mokhlesi B. A brief survey of patients' first impression after CPAP titration predicts future CPAP adherence: a pilot study. J Clin Sleep Med 2013;9(3):199-205. PMID:23493772

  2. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  3. The Colorful Future of Spin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ralston, John P.

    2009-01-01

    Activity and discoveries in spin physics of strong interactions has grown dramatically in recent years. What will we find in the future? I believe the future will be about the direct experimental exploration of confinement. While it is impossible to predict the 'future spin' of the whole community, my personal vision indicates we will teach ourselves how to use new coordinates for the gauge sector. New coordinates will be more appropriate for the new questions being asked. Contrary to long-held beliefs, there does exist alternatives to QCD. Not only will the future be about discovering the micro-structure of hadrons, but also new fundamental questions of principle will be confronted.

  4. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II production is a strong predictive marker for extrahepatic metastases in early hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Hyun-Mi; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Yoon, Jung-Hwan; Kim, Yoon Jun; Heo, Dae Seog; Lee, Hyo-Suk

    2011-01-01

    Clinicians often experience extrahepatic metastases associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even if no evidence of intrahepatic recurrence after treatment is observed. We investigated the pretreatment predictors of extrahepatic metastases in HCC patients. Patients diagnosed with HCC without evidence of extrahepatic metastases were prospectively enrolled. We evaluated the correlation between extrahepatic metastases and pretreatment clinical variables, including serum tumor markers. A total of 354 patients were included. Seventy-six patients (21%) had extrahepatic metastases during the observation period (median, 25.3 months; range, 0.6-51.3 months). Cox regression multivariate analysis showed that serum protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) production levels, the intrahepatic tumor stage, platelet count, and portal vein thrombosis were independent risk factors for extrahepatic metastases. Patients with a PIVKA-II production ≥ 300 mAU/mL had a 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval; 1.5-4.8; P < 0.001) and 3.7-fold (95% confidence interval; 2.0-6.6; P < 0.001) increased risk for extrahepatic metastases after adjustment for stage, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, and portal vein thrombosis according to the AJCC and BCLC staging systems, respectively. PIVKA-II production levels might be a good candidate predictive marker for extrahepatic HCC metastases, especially in patients with smaller and/or fewer tumors in the liver with in stages regardless of serum alpha-fetoprotein

  5. Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

    OpenAIRE

    Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

    2017-01-01

    1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

  6. Baseline quantitative hepatitis B core antibody titre alone strongly predicts HBeAg seroconversion across chronic hepatitis B patients treated with peginterferon or nucleos(t)ide analogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Rong; Sun, Jian; Yuan, Quan; Xie, Qing; Bai, Xuefan; Ning, Qin; Cheng, Jun; Yu, Yanyan; Niu, Junqi; Shi, Guangfeng; Wang, Hao; Tan, Deming; Wan, Mobin; Chen, Shijun; Xu, Min; Chen, Xinyue; Tang, Hong; Sheng, Jifang; Lu, Fengmin; Jia, Jidong; Zhuang, Hui; Xia, Ningshao; Hou, Jinlin

    2016-01-01

    Objective The investigation regarding the clinical significance of quantitative hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) during chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treatment is limited. The aim of this study was to determine the performance of anti-HBc as a predictor for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with peginterferon (Peg-IFN) or nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs), respectively. Design This was a retrospective cohort study consisting of 231 and 560 patients enrolled in two phase IV, multicentre, randomised, controlled trials treated with Peg-IFN or NUC-based therapy for up to 2 years, respectively. Quantitative anti-HBc evaluation was conducted for all the available samples in the two trials by using a newly developed double-sandwich anti-HBc immunoassay. Results At the end of trials, 99 (42.9%) and 137 (24.5%) patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion in the Peg-IFN and NUC cohorts, respectively. We defined 4.4 log10 IU/mL, with a maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity, as the optimal cut-off value of baseline anti-HBc level to predict HBeAg seroconversion for both Peg-IFN and NUC. Patients with baseline anti-HBc ≥4.4 log10 IU/mL and baseline HBV DNA baseline anti-HBc level was the best independent predictor for HBeAg seroconversion (OR 2.178; 95% CI 1.577 to 3.009; pBaseline anti-HBc titre is a useful predictor of Peg-IFN and NUC therapy efficacy in HBeAg-positive CHB patients, which could be used for optimising the antiviral therapy of CHB. PMID:25586058

  7. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  8. ASAS Centennial Paper: Impact of animal science research on United States goat production and predictions for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlu, T; Dawson, L J; Gipson, T A; Hart, S P; Merkel, R C; Puchala, R; Wang, Z; Zeng, S; Goetsch, A L

    2009-01-01

    Goat research in the United States has increased but at a rate less than that in production. Research on goat meat includes nutritional quality, packaging, color, sensory characteristics, and preslaughter management. Goat skins have value for leather, but quality of goat leather has not been extensively studied. Research in the production, quality, antibiotic residues, and sensory characteristics of goat milk and its products has aided development of the US dairy goat industry. Limited progress has been made in genetic improvement of milk or meat production. There is need to explore applications of genomics and proteomics and improve consistency in texture and functionality of goat cheeses. New goat meat and milk products are needed to increase demand and meet the diverse tastes of the American public. Despite research progress in control of mohair and cashmere growth, erratic prices and sale of raw materials have contributed to further declines in US production. Innovative and cooperative ventures are needed for profit sharing up to the consumer level. Internal parasites pose the greatest challenge to goat production in humid areas largely because of anthelmintic resistance. Study of alternative controls is required, including immunity enhancement via nutrition, vaccination, pasture management such as co-grazing with cattle, and genetic resistance. Similarly, the importance of health management is increasing related in part to a lack of effective vaccines for many diseases. Nutrition research should address requirements for vitamins and minerals, efficiencies of protein utilization, adjusting energy requirements for nutritional plane, acclimatization, and grazing conditions, feed intake prediction, and management practices for rapid-growth production systems. Moreover, efficient technology transfer methods are needed to disseminate current knowledge and that gained in future research.

  9. [Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

    To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  10. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  11. Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Isaac D.

    2008-01-01

    Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

  12. Peering into the Brain to Predict Behavior: Peer-Reported, but not Self-Reported, Conscientiousness Links Threat-Related Amygdala Activity to Future Problem Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R.; Knodt, Annchen R.; Radtke, Spenser R.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

    2016-01-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. PMID:27717769

  13. Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2017-02-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout ( Salmo trutta )

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, C.; Aarestrup, Kim; Norum, U.

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between......(-1)), with an average of 91 % of the predictions being correct. The present study shows that a non-lethal premigratory biochemical measurement can successfully select individual brown trout with high probability of migration...... was obtained. The ability of this regression model from the tributaries to predict future migratory behaviour in an independent group of trout caught in early April in the mainstream was evaluated. A threshold probability of migration was used to predict the behaviour of the mainstream individuals as either...

  15. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  16. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

    2014-01-01

    This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  17. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  18. Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

  19. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  20. Age of first use of energy beverages predicts future maximal consumption among naval pilot and flight officer candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Sather

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: A lower age of first energy drink use suggests higher risk of single-occasion heavy episodic consumption in this military population. Researchers should further explore the relationship of early onset energy drink consumption and potential future health risks.

  1. Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

  2. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  3. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  4. Strong coupling electroweak symmetry breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barklow, T.L.; Burdman, G.; Chivukula, R.S.

    1997-04-01

    The authors review models of electroweak symmetry breaking due to new strong interactions at the TeV energy scale and discuss the prospects for their experimental tests. They emphasize the direct observation of the new interactions through high-energy scattering of vector bosons. They also discuss indirect probes of the new interactions and exotic particles predicted by specific theoretical models

  5. Strong coupling electroweak symmetry breaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.L. [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Burdman, G. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Physics; Chivukula, R.S. [Boston Univ., MA (United States). Dept. of Physics

    1997-04-01

    The authors review models of electroweak symmetry breaking due to new strong interactions at the TeV energy scale and discuss the prospects for their experimental tests. They emphasize the direct observation of the new interactions through high-energy scattering of vector bosons. They also discuss indirect probes of the new interactions and exotic particles predicted by specific theoretical models.

  6. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  7. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  8. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  9. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  10. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S.

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  11. Lower hybrid current drive: an overview of simulation models, benchmarking with experiment, and predictions for future devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonoli, P.T.; Barbato, E.; Imbeaux, F.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the status of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulation and modeling. We first discuss modules used for wave propagation, absorption, and current drive with particular emphasis placed on comparing exact numerical solutions of the Fokker Planck equation in 2-dimension with solution methods that employ 1-dimensional and adjoint approaches. We also survey model predictions for LHCD in past and present experiments showing detailed comparisons between simulated and observed current drive efficiencies and hard X-ray profiles. Finally we discuss several model predictions for lower hybrid current profile control in proposed next step reactor options. (authors)

  12. Current and future perspectives on the development, evaluation and application of in silico approaches for predicting toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safety-related problems continue to be one of the major reasons of attrition in drug development. Non-testing approaches to predict toxicity could form part of the solution. This review provides a perspective of current status of non-testing approaches available for the predictio...

  13. Prediction of Future High Caries Increments for Children in a School Dental Service and in Private Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imfeld, Thomas N.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A method for predicting high dental caries increments for children, based on previous research, is presented. Three clinical findings were identified as predictors: number of sound primary molars, number of discolored pits/fissures on first permanent molars, and number of buccal and lingual smooth surfaces of first permanent molars with white…

  14. Evaluation of an ARPS-based canopy flow modeling system for use in future operational smoke prediction efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. T. Kiefer; S. Zhong; W. E. Heilman; J. J. Charney; X. Bian

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to develop a canopy flow modeling system based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model are discussed. The standard version of ARPS is modified to account for the effect of drag forces on mean and turbulent flow through a vegetation canopy, via production and sink terms in the momentum and subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations....

  15. A Strong Self-adaptivity Localization Algorithm Based on Gray Prediction Model for Mobile Nodes%一种使用灰度预测模型的强自适应性移动节点定位算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    单志龙; 刘兰辉; 张迎胜; 黄广雄

    2014-01-01

    定位技术是无线传感器网络的关键技术,而关于移动节点的定位又是其中的技术难点。该文针对移动节点定位问题提出基于灰度预测模型的强自适应性移动节点定位算法(GPLA)。算法在基于蒙特卡罗定位思想的基础上,利用灰度预测模型进行运动预测,精确采样区域,用估计距离进行滤波,提高采样粒子的有效性,通过限制性的线性交叉操作来生成新粒子,从而加快样本生成,减少采样次数,提高算法效率。仿真实验中,该算法在通信半径、锚节点密度、样本大小等条件变化的情况下,表现出较好的性能与较强的自适应性。%Localization of sensor nodes is an important issue in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), and positioning of the mobile nodes is one of the difficulties. To deal with this issue, a strong self-adaptive Localization Algorithm based on Gray Prediction model for mobile nodes (GPLA) is proposed. On the background of Monte Carlo Localization Algoritm, gray prediction model is used in GPLA, which can accurate sampling area is used to predict nodes motion situation. In filtering process, estimated distance is taken to improve the validity of the sample particles. Finally, restrictive linear crossover is used to generate new particles, which can accelerate the sampling process, reduce the times of sampling and heighten the efficiency of GPLA. Simulation results show that the algorithm has excellent performance and strong self-adaptivity in different communication radius, anchor node, sample size, and other conditions.

  16. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  17. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Kukwa; Marta Kolanowska

    2016-01-01

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of ...

  18. Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

    2014-03-01

    The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. The value of a registry negative urine pregnancy test for the prediction of a future unintended pregnancy among young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottenstreich, Misgav; Grisaru-Granovsky, Sorina; Rottenstreich, Amihai

    2018-05-15

    Performance of urine pregnancy test in general adolescents' clinic reflects caregiver or woman's concern that there might be a pregnancy. We aimed to assess whether young-unmarried women in whom a negative urine pregnancy test was registered would be at increased risk of a future unintended pregnancy. The study cohort included consecutive women drafted by the Israeli military between 2013 and 2015. The risk of unintended pregnancy was compared between women with a negative urine pregnancy test (n = 2774), the study group, and those in whom urine pregnancy test was not carried out (n = 126,659), the control group. During the study period, 2147 (1.7%) women experienced an unintended pregnancy. The risk of unintended pregnancy was significantly higher in patients in whom a past pregnancy test was negative 4.3% (n = 118), as compared with the control group 1.6% (n = 2028) (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23-3.26). In multivariate analysis history of a negative pregnancy test results was an independent predictor for a future unintended pregnancy (adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52). A history of a negative pregnancy test among young conscripted women is a significant risk indicator for a future unintended pregnancy. Directed efforts should be made in this particular vulnerable group of patients.

  20. Strongly correlating liquids and their isomorphs

    OpenAIRE

    Pedersen, Ulf R.; Gnan, Nicoletta; Bailey, Nicholas P.; Schröder, Thomas B.; Dyre, Jeppe C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper summarizes the properties of strongly correlating liquids, i.e., liquids with strong correlations between virial and potential energy equilibrium fluctuations at constant volume. We proceed to focus on the experimental predictions for strongly correlating glass-forming liquids. These predictions include i) density scaling, ii) isochronal superposition, iii) that there is a single function from which all frequency-dependent viscoelastic response functions may be calculated, iv) that...

  1. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  2. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S. [David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California Los Angeles, Ahmanson Translational Imaging Division, Department of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Collaboration: the Alzheimer' sDisease Neuroimaging Initiative

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  3. Testing strong interaction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.

    1979-01-01

    The author discusses possible tests of the current theories of the strong interaction, in particular, quantum chromodynamics. High energy e + e - interactions should provide an excellent means of studying the strong force. (W.D.L.)

  4. Modeling Patient No-Show History and Predicting Future Outpatient Appointment Behavior in the Veterans Health Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goffman, Rachel M; Harris, Shannon L; May, Jerrold H; Milicevic, Aleksandra S; Monte, Robert J; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Rodriguez, Keri L; Tjader, Youxu C; Vargas, Dominic L

    2017-05-01

    Missed appointments reduce the efficiency of the health care system and negatively impact access to care for all patients. Identifying patients at risk for missing an appointment could help health care systems and providers better target interventions to reduce patient no-shows. Our aim was to develop and test a predictive model that identifies patients that have a high probability of missing their outpatient appointments. Demographic information, appointment characteristics, and attendance history were drawn from the existing data sets from four Veterans Affairs health care facilities within six separate service areas. Past attendance behavior was modeled using an empirical Markov model based on up to 10 previous appointments. Using logistic regression, we developed 24 unique predictive models. We implemented the models and tested an intervention strategy using live reminder calls placed 24, 48, and 72 hours ahead of time. The pilot study targeted 1,754 high-risk patients, whose probability of missing an appointment was predicted to be at least 0.2. Our results indicate that three variables were consistently related to a patient's no-show probability in all 24 models: past attendance behavior, the age of the appointment, and having multiple appointments scheduled on that day. After the intervention was implemented, the no-show rate in the pilot group was reduced from the expected value of 35% to 12.16% (p value < 0.0001). The predictive model accurately identified patients who were more likely to miss their appointments. Applying the model in practice enables clinics to apply more intensive intervention measures to high-risk patients. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  5. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  6. Assessment of thermal-hydraulic aging characteristics of Wolsong-1 and aging predictions to ensure optimized future operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, H.; Hartmann, W.J.; Seo, H.B.

    2005-01-01

    'Full text:' All industrial plants undergo changes with time and nuclear plants are no exception. Wolsong-1 started its' commercial operation in 1983. Through more than 20 years of operation the plant has experienced aging behavior in many aspects. Specifically, aging of Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS), can affect fuel cooling characteristics. This reduces the margin to Onset of Intermittent Dryout (OID) of the CANDU fuel, a criterion used to conservatively prevent the possibility of fuel failure under nominal and accident scenarios. The power level associated with OID defines the Critical Channel Powers (CCP). In order to mitigate margin degradation Wolsong-1 had cleaned the primary side of all steam generators in March of 2003, reducing reactor inlet header temperature. However, even with this action, degradation of margin is continuing. To track and assess the current conditions of the primary heat transport system components, data showing aging effects are acquired and steady-state thermal-hydraulic models are developed. The resulting analysis allows for optimum safe and economic reactor operation. The following issues are explored specifically with respect to Wolsong-1 nuclear reactor operation. 1. Pressure tube creep measurement, prediction, and model development Radiation induced, increasing pressure tube diameters, specifically pressure tube diametral creep, cause more and more coolant to bypass the sub-channels of the fuel bundles, reducing margin to CCP. For Wolsong-1, pressure tubes were inspected in 1990, 1992, 1994, 2001 and 2004. Measurement in the nineties was done with the 'CIGAR' system and in the 21st century with the 'AFCIS' system. For each year's inspection, more than 12 channels are measured and some channels have been inspected in several years. The diameters of specific channels, repeatedly measured in more than three different years, allow an accurate diametral creep prediction. The initial manufacturing diameter and the aged, measured

  7. Well bore Flow Treatment Used to Predict Radioactive Brine Releases to the Surface from Future Drilling Penetrations into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), New Mexico, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brien, D.G.O.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Hadgu, T.

    1999-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mined geologic repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA.This site is designed for the permanent burial of transuranic radioactive waste generated by defense related activities.The waste produces gases when exposed to brine. This gas generation may result in increased pressures over time. Therefore, a future driller that unknowingly penetrates through the site may experience a blowout. This paper describes the methodology used to predict the resultant volumes of contaminated brine released

  8. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  9. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  10. Do positive MRI findings in the lumbar spine predict future seeking care for low back pain in young teenagers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Per; Leboeuf-Yde, Charlotte; Korsholm, Lars

    Background: In MRI studies lumbar disk degeneration and endplate changes have been found in children and adolescents. Such MRI findings appear to be more strongly associated with LBP than in adults. However, this knowledge is mainly based on cross-sectional studies from which no inferences regarded......, nucleus form, annular tears, high intensity zones, bulging, herniation, nerve root compression, endplate changes, Modic changes, and spondylolisthesis). Associations were sought through logistic regression at each lumbar level for boys and girls separately. Statistically significant results were presented......, and annular tears and bulging at L4. Moderate predictors included reduced signal L1 and L4, disk herniation and nerve root compression L4. Other levels and findings showed no statistically significant associations. Interestingly, the areas with the fewest findings showed the strongest associations to seeking...

  11. Proposal for future diagnosis and management of vascular tumors by using automatic software for image processing and statistic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, M D; Draghici, L; Secheli, I; Secheli, M; Codrescu, M; Draghici, I

    2015-01-01

    Infantile Hemangiomas (IH) are the most frequent tumors of vascular origin, and the differential diagnosis from vascular malformations is difficult to establish. Specific types of IH due to the location, dimensions and fast evolution, can determine important functional and esthetic sequels. To avoid these unfortunate consequences it is necessary to establish the exact appropriate moment to begin the treatment and decide which the most adequate therapeutic procedure is. Based on clinical data collected by a serial clinical observations correlated with imaging data, and processed by a computer-aided diagnosis system (CAD), the study intended to develop a treatment algorithm to accurately predict the best final results, from the esthetical and functional point of view, for a certain type of lesion. The preliminary database was composed of 75 patients divided into 4 groups according to the treatment management they received: medical therapy, sclerotherapy, surgical excision and no treatment. The serial clinical observation was performed each month and all the data was processed by using CAD. The project goal was to create a software that incorporated advanced methods to accurately measure the specific IH lesions, integrated medical information, statistical methods and computational methods to correlate this information with that obtained from the processing of images. Based on these correlations, a prediction mechanism of the evolution of hemangioma, which helped determine the best method of therapeutic intervention to minimize further complications, was established.

  12. A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change: examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel Davis, Kyle; Bhattachan, Abinash; D’Odorico, Paolo; Suweis, Samir

    2018-06-01

    Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.

  13. Predicting future major depression and persistent depressive symptoms: Development of a prognostic screener and PHQ-4 cutoffs in breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Karen L; Wiley, Joshua F; Crespi, Catherine M; Krull, Jennifer L; Stanton, Annette L

    2018-02-01

    Create a brief, self-report screener for recently diagnosed breast cancer patients to identify patients at risk of future depression. Breast cancer patients (N = 410) within 2 ± 1 months after diagnosis provided data on depression vulnerability. Depression outcomes were defined as a high depressive symptom trajectory or a major depressive episode during 16 months after diagnosis. Stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees identified 7 items highly predictive for the depression outcomes from a pool of 219 candidate depression vulnerability items. Three of the 7 items were from the Patient Health Questionnaire 4 (PHQ-4), a validated screener for current anxiety/depressive disorder that has not been tested to identify risk for future depression. Thresholds classifying patients as high or low risk on the new Depression Risk Questionnaire 7 (DRQ-7) and the PHQ-4 were obtained. Predictive performance of the DRQ-7 and PHQ-4 was assessed on a holdout validation subsample. DRQ-7 items assess loneliness, irritability, persistent sadness, and low acceptance of emotion as well as 3 items from the PHQ-4 (anhedonia, depressed mood, and worry). A DRQ-7 score of ≥6/23 identified depression outcomes with 0.73 specificity, 0.83 sensitivity, 0.68 positive predictive value, and 0.86 negative predictive value. A PHQ-4 score of ≥3/12 performed moderately well but less accurately than the DRQ-7 (net reclassification improvement = 10%; 95% CI [0.5-16]). The DRQ-7 and the PHQ-4 with a new cutoff score are clinically accessible screeners for risk of depression in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients. Use of the screener to select patients for preventive interventions awaits validation of the screener in other samples. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior predict dietary intention and future dieting in an ethnically diverse sample of overweight and obese veterans attending medical clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K

    2016-04-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans' numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one's weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior's (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB's ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans' facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior Predict Dietary Intention and Future Dieting in an Ethnically Diverse Sample of Overweight and Obese Veterans Attending Medical Clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N.; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K.

    2016-01-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans’ numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one’s weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior’s (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB’s ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans’ facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. PMID:26792774

  16. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukwa, Martin; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-12-08

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of its habitats using ecological niche modeling tools. The general glacial potential range of the studied species was wider than it is nowadays and its niches coverage decreased by almost 25% since last glacial maximum. The refugial areas were covered by cool and dry grasslands and scrubs and suitable niches in South America were located near the glacier limit. According to our analyses the further climate changes will not significantly influence the distribution of the suitable niches of O. austroamericana.

  17. Froissart type rise of cross sections and predictions for spectra and multiplicities of hadrons at future accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ter-Martirosyan, K.A.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental data of ISR and SPS colliders on σ tot and on the diffraction cone slope [B(s)] t=0 are used for a more precise determination of parameters (s=αp(0)-1 and others) of the supercritical Pomeron. With account of all P n rescatterings it leads to the Froissart type rise of cross sections at high energy. The quark-gluon string model of Pomeron, describing the existing experimental data, leads to predictions for super high energies of spectra of hadrons produced with small p perpendcular , in particular, the values of (dN ch /dy) y=0 , hadron average multiplicities =N-bar ch (ξ) and even their distributions over multiplicity W(N)=S N /σ in . The results are presented as curves and tables for energies √ s=0.9, 2, 4, 10, 20, 40, 10 2 , 10 3 TeV

  18. Understanding the Effects of Sampling on Healthcare Risk Modeling for the Prediction of Future High-Cost Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moturu, Sai T.; Liu, Huan; Johnson, William G.

    Rapidly rising healthcare costs represent one of the major issues plaguing the healthcare system. Data from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, Arizona's Medicaid program provide a unique opportunity to exploit state-of-the-art machine learning and data mining algorithms to analyze data and provide actionable findings that can aid cost containment. Our work addresses specific challenges in this real-life healthcare application with respect to data imbalance in the process of building predictive risk models for forecasting high-cost patients. We survey the literature and propose novel data mining approaches customized for this compelling application with specific focus on non-random sampling. Our empirical study indicates that the proposed approach is highly effective and can benefit further research on cost containment in the healthcare industry.

  19. A brief survey of patients' first impression after CPAP titration predicts future CPAP adherence: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balachandran, Jay S; Yu, Xiaohong; Wroblewski, Kristen; Mokhlesi, Babak

    2013-03-15

    CPAP adherence patterns are often established very early in the course of therapy. Our objective was to quantify patients' perception of CPAP therapy using a 6-item questionnaire administered in the morning following CPAP titration. We hypothesized that questionnaire responses would independently predict CPAP adherence during the first 30 days of therapy. We retrospectively reviewed the CPAP perception questionnaires of 403 CPAP-naïve adults who underwent in-laboratory titration and who had daily CPAP adherence data available for the first 30 days of therapy. Responses to the CPAP perception questionnaire were analyzed for their association with mean CPAP adherence and with changes in daily CPAP adherence over 30 days. Patients were aged 52 ± 14 years, 53% were women, 54% were African American, the mean body mass index (BMI) was 36.3 ± 9.1 kg/m(2), and most patients had moderate-severe OSA. Four of 6 items from the CPAP perception questionnaire- regarding difficulty tolerating CPAP, discomfort with CPAP pressure, likelihood of wearing CPAP, and perceived health benefit-were significantly correlated with mean 30-day CPAP adherence, and a composite score from these 4 questions was found to be internally consistent. Stepwise linear regression modeling demonstrated that 3 variables were significant and independent predictors of reduced mean CPAP adherence: worse score on the 4-item questionnaire, African American race, and non-sleep specialist ordering polysomnogram and CPAP therapy. Furthermore, a worse score on the 4-item CPAP perception questionnaire was consistently associated with decreased mean daily CPAP adherence over the first 30 days of therapy. In this pilot study, responses to a 4-item CPAP perception questionnaire administered to patients immediately following CPAP titration independently predicted mean CPAP adherence during the first 30 days. Further prospective validation of this questionnaire in different patient populations is warranted.

  20. Rheumatology in the community of Madrid: current availability of rheumatologists and future needs using a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro y De Mercado, Pablo; Blasco Bravo, Antonio Javier; Lázaro y De Mercado, Ignacio; Castañeda, Santos; López Robledillo, Juan Carlos

    2013-01-01

    To: 1) describe the distribution of the public sector rheumatologists; 2) identify variables on which the workload in Rheumatology depends; and 3) build a predictive model on the need of rheumatologists for the next 10 years, in the Community of Madrid (CM). The information was obtained through structured questionnaires sent to all services/units of Rheumatology of public hospitals in the CM. The population figures, current and forecasted, were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. A predictive model was built based on information about the current and foreseeable supply, current and foreseeable demand, and the assumptions and criteria used to match supply with demand. The underlying uncertainty in the model was assessed by sensitivity analysis. In the CM in 2011 there were 150 staff rheumatologists and 49 residents in 27 centers, which is equivalent to one rheumatologist for every 33,280 inhabitants in the general population, and one for every 4,996 inhabitants over 65 years. To keep the level of assistance of 2011 in 2021 in the general population, it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more rheumatologists in scenarios of demand higher than 15%. However, to keep the level of assistance in the population over 65 years of age it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more specialists even without increased demand. The model developed may be very useful for planning, with the CM policy makers, the needs of human resources in Rheumatology in the coming years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tosca eBallerini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear.

  2. Head-down posture in glaucoma suspects induces changes in IOP, systemic pressure and PERG that predict future loss of optic nerve tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porciatti, Vittorio; Feuer, William J.; Monsalve, Pedro; Triolo, Giacinto; Vazquez, Luis; McSoley, John; Ventura, Lori M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To obtain pilot data on posture-induced changes of IOP, systemic pressure and pattern electroretinogram (PERG) predictive of future optic nerve tissue loss glaucoma suspects (GS). Methods Mean peripapillary retinal fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) was measured with OCT two times/year in 28 GS aged 58 ± 8.9 years over 5.0 ± 0.73 years. All patients had a baseline PERG, IOP and brachial blood pressure measurements in the seated and – 10 degrees head-down-body-tilt position (HDT). Outcome measures were seated/HDT PERG amplitude and phase, IOP, mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), and estimated ocular perfusion pressure (OPP). An additional group of 11 similarly-aged controls (SAC) aged 56.9 ± 13 years was tested for comparison. Results While all GS had initial RNFLT in the normal range, 9/28 of them developed significant (P blood pressure, together with their changes upon HDT, may have predictive value for future loss of optic nerve tissue in GS. This study supports the rationale for a full-scale clinical trial to identify patients at high-risk of development of glaucoma. PMID:28263259

  3. Development of the prediction technology of cable disconnection of in-core neutron detector for the future high-temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazaki, Yosuke; Sawahata, Hiroaki; Kawamoto, Taiki; Suzuki, Hisashi; Shinohara, Masanori; Honda, Yuki; Katsuyama, Kozo; Takada, Shoji; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance technologies for the reactor system have been developed by using the high-temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR). One of the important purposes of development is to accumulate the experiences and data to satisfy the availability of operation up to 90% by shortening the duration of the periodical maintenance for the future HTGRs by shifting from the time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The technical issue of the maintenance of in-core neutron detector, wide range monitor (WRM), is to predict the malfunction caused by cable disconnection to plan the replacement schedule. This is because that it is difficult to observe directly inside of the WRM in detail. The electrical inspection method was proposed to detect and predict the cable disconnection of the WRM by remote monitoring from outside of the reactor by using the time domain reflectometry and so on. The disconnection position, which was specified by the electrical method, was identified by non-destructive and destructive inspection. The accumulated data is expected to be contributed for advanced maintenance of future HTGRs. (author)

  4. Prediction of electric vehicle penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric : vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. : markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the...

  5. Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fries

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

  6. Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

  7. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour; Zikria, Bashir; Carrino, John A.

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  8. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Musculoskeletal Radiology, Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Baltimore, MD (United States); Zikria, Bashir [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Baltimore, MD (United States); Carrino, John A. [Hospital for Special Surgery, Department of Radiology and Imaging, New York, NY (United States)

    2015-11-15

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  9. Abortion: Strong's counterexamples fail

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Nucci, Ezio

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows that the counterexamples proposed by Strong in 2008 in the Journal of Medical Ethics to Marquis's argument against abortion fail. Strong's basic idea is that there are cases--for example, terminally ill patients--where killing an adult human being is prima facie seriously morally...

  10. Strong Langmuir turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    After a brief discussion of beam-excited Langmuir turbulence in the solar wind, we explain the criteria for wave-particle, three-wave and strong turbulence interactions. We then present the results of a numerical integration of the Zakharov equations, which describe the strong turbulence saturation of a weak (low-density) high energy, bump-on-tail beam instability. (author)

  11. Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

    2015-11-11

    During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Early Improvement in Work Productivity Predicts Future Clinical Course in Depressed Outpatients: Findings from the CO-MED Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Manish K.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Greer, Tracy L.; Carmody, Thomas; Rush, A. John; Trivedi, Madhukar H.

    2018-01-01

    Objective Depression symptom severity, the most commonly studied outcome in antidepressant treatment trials, accounts for only a small portion of burden related to major depression. While lost work productivity is the biggest contributor to depression’s economic burden, few studies have systematically evaluated the independent effect of treatment on work productivity and the relationship between changes in work productivity and longer-term clinical course. Method Work productivity was measured repeatedly by the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment (WPAI) self-report in 331 employed participants with major depression enrolled in the Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED) trial. Trajectories of change in work productivity during the first 6 weeks of treatment were identified and used to predict remission at 3 and 7 months. Results Participants reported reduced absence from work and increased work productivity with antidepressant treatment even after controlling for changes in depression severity. Three distinct trajectories of changes in work productivity were identified: 1) robust early improvement (24%), 2) minimal change (49%), and 3) high-impairment slight reduction (27%). As compared to other participants, those with robust improvement had 3–5 times higher remission rates at 3 months and 2–5 times higher remission rates at 7 months, even after controlling for select baseline variables and remission status at week 6. Conclusions In this secondary analysis, self-reported work productivity improved in depressed patients with antidepressant treatment even after accounting for depressive symptom reduction. Early improvement in work productivity is associated with much higher remission rates after 3 and 7 months of treatment. PMID:27523501

  13. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. The Predictive Value of Indocyanine Green Clearance in Future Liver Remnant for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Following Hepatectomy with Extrahepatic Bile Duct Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

    2016-06-01

    Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most common complications following major hepatectomy. The preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) function is critical to predict the incidence of PHLF. To determine the efficacy of the plasma clearance rate of indocyanine green clearance of FLR (ICGK-F) in predicting PHLF in cases of highly invasive hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. Five hundred and eighty-five patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection, from 2002 to 2014 in a single institution, were evaluated. Among them, 192 patients (33 %) had PHLF. The predictive value of ICGK-F for PHLF was determined and compared with other risk factors for PHLF. The incidence of PHLF was inversely proportional to the level of ICGK-F. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, ICGK-F, combined pancreatoduodenectomy, the operation time, and blood loss were identified as independent risk factors of PHLF. The risk of PHLF increased according to the decrement of ICGK-F (the odds ratio of ICGK-F for each decrement of 0.01 was 1.22; 95 % confidence interval 1.12-1.33; P bile duct resection. This criterion may be useful for highly invasive hepatectomy, such as that with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

  15. Thermal performance prediction and sensitivity analysis for future deployment of molten salt cavity receiver solar power plants in Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudaoud, S.; Khellaf, A.; Mohammedi, K.; Behar, O.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Performance of power plant with molten salt cavity receiver is assessed. • A method has been used to optimize the plant solar multiple, capacity factor and LEC. • Comparison of the simulated results to those of PS20 has shown good agreement. • Higher fossil fuel fraction reduces the LEC and increases the capacity factor. • Highland and Sahara regions are suitable for CRS plants deployment. - Abstract: Of all Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies available today, the molten salt solar power plant appears to be the most important option for providing a major share of the clean and renewable electricity needed in the future. In the present paper, a technical and economic analysis for the implementation of a probable molten salt cavity receiver thermal power plant in Algeria has been carried out. In order to do so, we have investigated the effect of solar field size, storage capacity factor, solar radiation intensity, hybridization and power plant capacity on the thermal efficiency and electricity cost of the selected plant. The system advisor model has been used to perform the technical performance and the economic assessment for different locations (coastal, highland and Sahara regions) in Algeria. Taking into account various factors, a method has been applied to optimize the solar multiple and the capacity factor of the plant, to get a trade-off between the incremental investment costs of the heliostat field and the thermal energy storage. The analysis has shown that the use of higher fossil fuel fraction significantly reduces the levelized electricity cost (LEC) and sensibly increases the capacity factor (CF). The present study indicates that hybrid molten salt solar tower power technology is very promising. The CF and the LEC have been found to be respectively of the order of 71% and 0.35 $/kW e . For solar-only power plants, these parameters are respectively about 27% and 0.63 $/kW e . Therefore, hybrid central receiver systems are

  16. Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  17. Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko; Ohisa, Masayuki; Sugiyama, Aya; Nishida, Kazuo; Inoue, Shingo; Shirasaka, Takuma

    2016-11-01

    Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls. Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections. We estimated that the number of blood donations increased from 5,020,000 in 2008 to 5,260,000 in 2012, but will decrease to 4,770,000 units by 2025. In particular, the number of donors in their 20s and 30s decreased every year. Moreover, the number of donations required to supply blood products would have been increased from 5,390,000 in 2012 to 5,660,000 units in 2025. Thus, the estimated shortfall of blood donations is expected to increase each year from 140,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2025 and then more than double to 1,670,000 in 2050. If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources. © 2016 AABB.

  18. Invited review: Current representation and future trends of predicting amino acid utilization in the lactating dairy cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriola Apelo, S I; Knapp, J R; Hanigan, M D

    2014-07-01

    tissues that would lead to improved requirement prediction systems. Inclusion of variable individual EAA efficiencies derived from splanchnic and mammary responses to nutrient and hormonal signals should help reduce dietary protein levels. Supplementing reduced crude protein diets with individual EAA should increase gross N efficiency to more than 30%, reducing N excretion by the US dairy industry by 92,000 t annually. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  20. Strong intrinsic motivation

    OpenAIRE

    Dessi, Roberta; Rustichini, Aldo

    2015-01-01

    A large literature in psychology, and more recently in economics, has argued that monetary rewards can reduce intrinsic motivation. We investigate whether the negative impact persists when intrinsic motivation is strong, and test this hypothesis experimentally focusing on the motivation to undertake interesting and challenging tasks, informative about individual ability. We find that this type of task can generate strong intrinsic motivation, that is impervious to the effect of monetary incen...

  1. Bitcoin Meets Strong Consistency

    OpenAIRE

    Decker, Christian; Seidel, Jochen; Wattenhofer, Roger

    2014-01-01

    The Bitcoin system only provides eventual consistency. For everyday life, the time to confirm a Bitcoin transaction is prohibitively slow. In this paper we propose a new system, built on the Bitcoin blockchain, which enables strong consistency. Our system, PeerCensus, acts as a certification authority, manages peer identities in a peer-to-peer network, and ultimately enhances Bitcoin and similar systems with strong consistency. Our extensive analysis shows that PeerCensus is in a secure state...

  2. Strong gravity and supersymmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamseddine, Ali H.; Salam, A.; Strathdee, J.

    1977-11-01

    A supersymmetric theory is constructed for a strong f plus a weak g graviton, together with their accompanying massive gravitinos, by gaugin the gradel 0Sp(2,2,1)x 0Sp(2,2,1) structure. The mixing term between f and g fields, which makes the strong graviton massive, can be introduced through a spontaneous symmetry-breaking mechanism implemented in this note by constructing a non-linear realization of the symmetry group

  3. Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Baumann, Matthias; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Helmers, David P.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    ContextHousing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.ObjectivesOur goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.MethodsWe quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.ResultsOur results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.ConclusionsWildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

  4. Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and predictive validity tests showed that all 4 brief scales-hopelessness (H), anxiety sensitivity (AS), impulsivity (IMP), and sensation seeking (SS)-were related, in theoretically expected ways, to measures of substance use and other behavioral and emotional problems. Results also showed that when using the 4 SURPS subscales to identify adolescents "at risk," one can identify a high number of those who developed problems (high sensitivity scores ranging from 72 to 91%). And, as predicted, because each scale is related to specific substance and mental health problems, good specificity was obtained when using the individual personality subscales (e.g., most adolescents identified at high risk by the IMP scale developed conduct or drug use problems within the next 18 months [a high specificity score of 70 to 80%]). The SURPS is a valuable tool for identifying adolescents at high risk for substance misuse and other emotional and behavioral problems. Implications of findings for the use of this measure in future research and prevention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  5. Scalar strong interaction hadron theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hoh, Fang Chao

    2015-01-01

    The scalar strong interaction hadron theory, SSI, is a first principles' and nonlocal theory at quantum mechanical level that provides an alternative to low energy QCD and Higgs related part of the standard model. The quark-quark interaction is scalar rather than color-vectorial. A set of equations of motion for mesons and another set for baryons have been constructed. This book provides an account of the present state of a theory supposedly still at its early stage of development. This work will facilitate researchers interested in entering into this field and serve as a basis for possible future development of this theory.

  6. Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

  7. A strong comeback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marier, D.

    1992-01-01

    This article presents the results of a financial rankings survey which show a strong economic activity in the independent energy industry. The topics of the article include advisor turnover, overseas banks, and the increase in public offerings. The article identifies the top project finance investors for new projects and restructurings and rankings for lenders

  8. Strong Electroweak Symmetry Breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstein, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    Models of spontaneous breaking of electroweak symmetry by a strong interaction do not have fine tuning/hierarchy problem. They are conceptually elegant and use the only mechanism of spontaneous breaking of a gauge symmetry that is known to occur in nature. The simplest model, minimal technicolor with extended technicolor interactions, is appealing because one can calculate by scaling up from QCD. But it is ruled out on many counts: inappropriately low quark and lepton masses (or excessive FCNC), bad electroweak data fits, light scalar and vector states, etc. However, nature may not choose the minimal model and then we are stuck: except possibly through lattice simulations, we are unable to compute and test the models. In the LHC era it therefore makes sense to abandon specific models (of strong EW breaking) and concentrate on generic features that may indicate discovery. The Technicolor Straw Man is not a model but a parametrized search strategy inspired by a remarkable generic feature of walking technicolor,...

  9. Strong Coupling Continuum QCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pennington, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The Schwinger-Dyson, Bethe-Salpeter system of equations are the link between coloured quarks and gluons, and colourless hadrons and their properties. This talk reviews some aspects of these studies from the infrared behavior of ghosts to the prediction of electromagnetic form-factors.

  10. Plasmons in strong superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldo, M.; Ducoin, C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a study of the possible plasmon excitations that can occur in systems where strong superconductivity is present. In these systems the plasmon energy is comparable to or smaller than the pairing gap. As a prototype of these systems we consider the proton component of Neutron Star matter just below the crust when electron screening is not taken into account. For the realistic case we consider in detail the different aspects of the elementary excitations when the proton, electron components are considered within the Random-Phase Approximation generalized to the superfluid case, while the influence of the neutron component is considered only at qualitative level. Electron screening plays a major role in modifying the proton spectrum and spectral function. At the same time the electron plasmon is strongly modified and damped by the indirect coupling with the superfluid proton component, even at moderately low values of the gap. The excitation spectrum shows the interplay of the different components and their relevance for each excitation modes. The results are relevant for neutrino physics and thermodynamical processes in neutron stars. If electron screening is neglected, the spectral properties of the proton component show some resemblance with the physical situation in high-T c superconductors, and we briefly discuss similarities and differences in this connection. In a general prospect, the results of the study emphasize the role of Coulomb interaction in strong superconductors.

  11. Repeated measurements of NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin T or C-reactive protein do not predict future allograft rejection in heart transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battes, Linda C; Caliskan, Kadir; Rizopoulos, Dimitris; Constantinescu, Alina A; Robertus, Jan L; Akkerhuis, Martijn; Manintveld, Olivier C; Boersma, Eric; Kardys, Isabella

    2015-03-01

    Studies on the prognostic value of serial biomarker assays for future occurrence of allograft rejection (AR) are scarce. We examined whether repeated measurements of NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), troponin T (TropT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict AR. From 2005 to 2010, 77 consecutive heart transplantation (HTx) recipients were included. The NT-proBNP, TropT, and CRP were measured at 16 ± 4 (mean ± standard deviation) consecutive routine endomyocardial biopsy surveillance visits during the first year of follow-up. Allograft rejection was defined as International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) grade 2R or higher at endomyocardial biopsy. Joint modeling was used to assess the association between repeated biomarker measurements and occurrence of future AR. Joint modeling accounts for dependence among repeated observations in individual patients. The mean age of the patients at HTx was 49 ± 9.2 years, and 68% were men. During the first year of follow-up, 1,136 biopsies and concurrent blood samples were obtained, and 56 patients (73%) experienced at least one episode of AR. All biomarkers were elevated directly after HTx and achieved steady-state after ∼ 12 weeks, both in patients with or without AR. No associations were present between the repeated measurements of NT-proBNP, TropT, or CRP and AR both early (weeks 0-12) and late (weeks 13-52) in the course after HTx (hazard ratios for weeks 13-52: 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.55-1.68), 0.67 (0.27-1.69), and 1.44 (0.90-2.30), respectively, per ln[unit]). Combining the three biomarkers in one model also rendered null results. The temporal evolution of NT-proBNP, TropT, and CRP before AR did not predict occurrence of acute AR both in the early and late course of the first year after HTx.

  12. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (prisk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (prisk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright

  13. Strongly intensive quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M. I.; Gazdzicki, M.

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of fluctuations of hadron production properties in collisions of relativistic particles profits from use of measurable intensive quantities which are independent of system size variations. The first family of such quantities was proposed in 1992; another is introduced in this paper. Furthermore we present a proof of independence of volume fluctuations for quantities from both families within the framework of the grand canonical ensemble. These quantities are referred to as strongly intensive ones. Influence of conservation laws and resonance decays is also discussed.

  14. Strong-coupling approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, R.B.

    1984-03-01

    Standard path-integral techniques such as instanton calculations give good answers for weak-coupling problems, but become unreliable for strong-coupling. Here we consider a method of replacing the original potential by a suitably chosen harmonic oscillator potential. Physically this is motivated by the fact that potential barriers below the level of the ground-state energy of a quantum-mechanical system have little effect. Numerically, results are good, both for quantum-mechanical problems and for massive phi 4 field theory in 1 + 1 dimensions. 9 references, 6 figures

  15. Future in psychopathology research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckers, Stephan

    2014-03-01

    Psychopathology research has focused either on the analysis of the mental state in the here and now or on the synthesis of mental status abnormalities with biological markers and outcome data. These two schools of psychopathology, the analytic and the synthetic, make contrasting assumptions, take different approaches, and pursue divergent goals. Analytic psychopathology favors the individual person and unique biography, whereas synthetic psychopathology abstracts from the single case and generalizes to the population level. The dimension of time, especially the prediction of future outcomes, is viewed differently by these two schools. Here I outline how Carpenter's proposal of strong inference and theory testing in psychopathology research can be used to test the value of analytic and synthetic psychopathology. The emerging field of personalized psychiatry can clarify the relevance of psychopathology for contemporary research in psychiatry.

  16. Building strong brands – does it matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Aure, Kristin Gaaseide; Nervik, Kristine Dybvik

    2014-01-01

    Brand equity has proven, through several decades of research, to be a primary source of competitive advantage and future earnings (Yoo & Donthu, 2001). Building strong brands has therefore become a priority for many organizations, with the presumption that building strong brands yields these advantages (Yasin et al., 2007). A quantitative survey was conducted at Sunnmøre in Norway in order to answer the two developed research questions. - Does the brand equity dimensions; brand...

  17. Strongly disordered superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muttalib, K.A.

    1982-01-01

    We examine some universal effects of strong non-magnetic disorder on the electron-phonon and electron-electron interactions in a superconductor. In particular we explicitly take into account the effect of slow diffusion of electrons in a disordered medium by working in an exact impurity eigenstate representation. We find that the normal diffusion of electrons characterized by a constant diffusion coefficient does not lead to any significant correction to the electron-phonon or the effective electron-electron interactions in a superconductor. We then consider sufficiently strong disorder where Anderson localization of electrons becomes important and determine the effect of localization on the electron-electron interactions. We find that due to localization, the diffusion of electrons becomes anomalous in the sense that the diffusion coefficient becomes scale dependent. This results in an increase in the effective electron-electron interaction with increasing disorder. We propose that this provides a natural explanation for the unusual sensitivity of the transition temperature T/sub c/ of the high T/sub c/ superconductors (T/sub c/ > 10 0 K) to damage effects

  18. Strong Coupling Holography

    CERN Document Server

    Dvali, Gia

    2009-01-01

    We show that whenever a 4-dimensional theory with N particle species emerges as a consistent low energy description of a 3-brane embedded in an asymptotically-flat (4+d)-dimensional space, the holographic scale of high-dimensional gravity sets the strong coupling scale of the 4D theory. This connection persists in the limit in which gravity can be consistently decoupled. We demonstrate this effect for orbifold planes, as well as for the solitonic branes and string theoretic D-branes. In all cases the emergence of a 4D strong coupling scale from bulk holography is a persistent phenomenon. The effect turns out to be insensitive even to such extreme deformations of the brane action that seemingly shield 4D theory from the bulk gravity effects. A well understood example of such deformation is given by large 4D Einstein term in the 3-brane action, which is known to suppress the strength of 5D gravity at short distances and change the 5D Newton's law into the four-dimensional one. Nevertheless, we observe that the ...

  19. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  20. Prediction equations for corrosion rates of a A-537 and A-516 steels in Double Shell Slurry, Future PUREX, and Hanford Facilities Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Divine, J.R.; Bowen, W.M.; Mackey, D.B.; Bates, D.J.; Pool, K.H.

    1985-06-01

    Even though the interest in the corrosion of radwaste tanks goes back to the mid-1940's when waste storage was begun, and a fair amount of corrosion work has been done since then, the changes in processes and waste types have outpaced the development of new data pertinent to the new double shell tanks. As a consequence, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) began a development of corrosion data on a broad base of waste compositions in 1980. The objective of the program was to provide operations personnel with corrosion rate data as a function of waste temperature and composition. The work performed in this program examined A-537 tank steel in Double Shell Slurry and Future PUREX Wastes, at temperatures between 40 and 180 0 C as well as in Hanford Facilities Waste at 25 and 50 0 C. In general, the corrosion rates were less than 1 mpy (0.001 in./y) and usually less than 0.5 mpy. Excessive corrosion rates (>1 mpy) were only found in dilute waste compositions or in concentrated caustic compositions at temperatures above 140 0 C. Stress corrosion cracking was only observed under similar conditions. The results are presented as polynomial prediction equations with examples of the output of existing computer codes. The codes are not provided in the text but are available from the authors. 12 refs., 5 figs., 19 tabs

  1. Strong moduli stabilization and phenomenology

    CERN Document Server

    Dudas, Emilian; Mambrini, Yann; Mustafayev, Azar; Olive, Keith A

    2013-01-01

    We describe the resulting phenomenology of string theory/supergravity models with strong moduli stabilization. The KL model with F-term uplifting, is one such example. Models of this type predict universal scalar masses equal to the gravitino mass. In contrast, A-terms receive highly suppressed gravity mediated contributions. Under certain conditions, the same conclusion is valid for gaugino masses, which like A-terms, are then determined by anomalies. In such models, we are forced to relatively large gravitino masses (30-1000 TeV). We compute the low energy spectrum as a function of m_{3/2}. We see that the Higgs masses naturally takes values between 125-130 GeV. The lower limit is obtained from the requirement of chargino masses greater than 104 GeV, while the upper limit is determined by the relic density of dark matter (wino-like).

  2. Strongly interacting W's and Z's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, M.K.

    1984-01-01

    The study focussed primarily on the dynamics of a strongly interacting W, Z(SIW) sector, with the aim of sharpening predictions for total W, Z yield and W, Z multiplicities expected from WW fusion for various scenarios. Specific issues raised in the context of the general problem of modeling SIW included the specificity of the technicolor (or, equivalently, QCD) model, whether or not a composite scalar model can be evaded, and whether the standard model necessarily implies an I = J = O state (≅ Higgs particle) that is relatively ''light'' (M ≤ hundreds of TeV). The consensus on the last issue was that existing arguments are inconclusive. While the author shall briefly address compositeness and alternatives to the technicolor model, quantitative estimates will be of necessity based on technicolor or an extrapolation of pion data

  3. LIGO: The strong belief

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2016-01-01

    Twenty years of designing, building and testing a number of innovative technologies, with the strong belief that the endeavour would lead to a historic breakthrough. The Bulletin publishes an abstract of the Courier’s interview with Barry Barish, one of the founding fathers of LIGO.   The plots show the signals of gravitational waves detected by the twin LIGO observatories at Livingston, Louisiana, and Hanford, Washington. (Image: Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab) On 11 February, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo collaborations published a historic paper in which they showed a gravitational signal emitted by the merger of two black holes. These results come after 20 years of hard work by a large collaboration of scientists operating the two LIGO observatories in the US. Barry Barish, Linde Professor of Physics, Emeritus at the California Institute of Technology and former Director of the Global Design Effort for the Internat...

  4. Strongly interacting Higgs bosons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelquist, T.; Bernard, C.

    1980-01-01

    The sensitivity of present-energy weak interactions to a strongly interacting heavy-Higgs-boson sector is discussed. The gauged nonlinear sigma model, which is the limit of the linear model as the Higgs-boson mass goes to infinity, is used to organize and catalogue all possible heavy-Higgs-boson effects. As long as the SU(2)/sub L/ x SU(2)/sub R/ symmetry of the Higgs sector is preserved, these effects are found to be small, of the order of the square of the gauge coupling times logarithms (but not powers) of the Higgs-boson mass divided by the W mass. We work in the context of a simplified model with gauge group SU(2)/sub L/; the extension to SU(2)/sub L/ x U(1) is briefly discussed

  5. Study: Ozone Layer's Future Linked Strongly to Changes in Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    balloon to measure of the vertical profile of the ozone layer. NOAA scientists launch an ozonesonde via balloon to measure of the vertical profile of the ozone layer. NOAA releases ozonesondes at eight sites to continuously monitor stratospheric ozone. Download here. (Credit: NOAA) The ozone layer - the thin

  6. Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout (Salmo trutta)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Aarestrup, Kim; Nørum, Ulrik

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between...... future migrants or residents. The maximum percentage of correct predictions of future migratory behaviour in mainstream fish was observed at threshold probabilities between approximately 0.15 and 0.45 (corresponding to threshold gill Na+/K+-ATPase activities between 2.7 and 3.7 micromol ADP mg-1 protein...

  7. Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J; King, Robert A; Bessen, Debra E; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F

    2010-04-01

    One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal infections (GABHS) in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared with healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Consecutive ratings of tic, OC, and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a 2-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. Copyright 2010 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Remnants of strong tidal interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcglynn, T.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper examines the properties of stellar systems that have recently undergone a strong tidal shock, i.e., a shock which removes a significant fraction of the particles in the system, and where the shocked system has a much smaller mass than the producer of the tidal field. N-body calculations of King models shocked in a variety of ways are performed, and the consequences of the shocks are investigated. The results confirm the prediction of Jaffe for shocked systems. Several models are also run where the tidal forces on the system are constant, simulating a circular orbit around a primary, and the development of tidal radii under these static conditions appears to be a mild process which does not dramatically affect material that is not stripped. The tidal radii are about twice as large as classical formulas would predict. Remnant density profiles are compared with a sample of elliptical galaxies, and the implications of the results for the development of stellar populations and galaxies are considered. 38 refs

  9. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Vivien; Butler Forslund, Emelie; Opheim, Arve; Franzén, Erika; Wahman, Kerstin; Hultling, Claes; Seiger, Åke; Ståhle, Agneta; Stanghelle, Johan K; Roaldsen, Kirsti S

    2017-04-01

    What is the 1-year incidence of falls and injurious falls in a representative cohort of community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with chronic spinal cord injury? What are the predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls in this population? One-year longitudinal observational multi-centre study. A representative sample of 68 (of 73 included) community-dwelling ambulatory individuals with traumatic SCI attending regular follow-up programs at rehabilitation centres. Primary outcome measures were incidence and predictors of recurrent falls (more than two/year) and injurious falls reported every 2 weeks for 1year. A total of 48% of participants reported recurrent falls. Of the 272 reported falls, 41% were injurious. Serious injuries were experienced by 4% of participants, all of whom were women. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=111, 95% CI=8.6 to 1425), fear of falling (OR=6.1, 95% CI=1.43 to 26) and longer time taken to walk 10m (OR=1.3, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.7) were predictors of recurrent falls. Fear of falling (OR=4.3, 95% CI=1.3 to 14) and recurrent falls in the previous year (OR=4.2, 95% CI=1.2 to 14) were predictors of injurious falls. Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017) Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108-113]. Copyright © 2017 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Strong-interaction nonuniversality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkas, R.R.; Foot, R.; He, X.; Joshi, G.C.

    1989-01-01

    The universal QCD color theory is extended to an SU(3) 1 direct product SU(3) 2 direct product SU(3) 3 gauge theory, where quarks of the ith generation transform as triplets under SU(3)/sub i/ and singlets under the other two factors. The usual color group is then identified with the diagonal subgroup, which remains exact after symmetry breaking. The gauge bosons associated with the 16 broken generators then form two massive octets under ordinary color. The interactions between quarks and these heavy gluonlike particles are explicitly nonuniversal and thus an exploration of their physical implications allows us to shed light on the fundamental issue of strong-interaction universality. Nonuniversality and weak flavor mixing are shown to generate heavy-gluon-induced flavor-changing neutral currents. The phenomenology of these processes is studied, as they provide the major experimental constraint on the extended theory. Three symmetry-breaking scenarios are presented. The first has color breaking occurring at the weak scale, while the second and third divorce the two scales. The third model has the interesting feature of radiatively induced off-diagonal Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements

  11. John Strong (1941 - 2006)

    CERN Multimedia

    Wickens, F

    Our friend and colleague John Strong was cruelly taken from us by a brain tumour on Monday 31st July, a few days before his 65th birthday John started his career working with a group from Westfield College, under the leadership of Ted Bellamy. He obtained his PhD and spent the early part of his career on experiments at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), but after the early 1970s his research was focussed on experiments in CERN. Over the years he made a number of notable contributions to experiments in CERN: The Omega spectrometer adopted a system John had originally developed for experiments at RAL using vidicon cameras to record the sparks in the spark chambers; He contributed to the success of NA1 and NA7, where he became heavily involved in the electronic trigger systems; He was responsible for the second level trigger system for the ALEPH detector and spent five years leading a team that designed and built the system, which ran for twelve years with only minor interventions. Following ALEPH he tur...

  12. Stirring Strongly Coupled Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Fadafan, Kazem Bitaghsir; Rajagopal, Krishna; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2009-01-01

    We determine the energy it takes to move a test quark along a circle of radius L with angular frequency w through the strongly coupled plasma of N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills (SYM) theory. We find that for most values of L and w the energy deposited by stirring the plasma in this way is governed either by the drag force acting on a test quark moving through the plasma in a straight line with speed v=Lw or by the energy radiated by a quark in circular motion in the absence of any plasma, whichever is larger. There is a continuous crossover from the drag-dominated regime to the radiation-dominated regime. In the crossover regime we find evidence for significant destructive interference between energy loss due to drag and that due to radiation as if in vacuum. The rotating quark thus serves as a model system in which the relative strength of, and interplay between, two different mechanisms of parton energy loss is accessible via a controlled classical gravity calculation. We close by speculating on the implicati...

  13. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  14. Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, John D.; Stewart, Jana S.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

  15. Electrophoresis in strong electric fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barany, Sandor

    2009-01-01

    Two kinds of non-linear electrophoresis (ef) that can be detected in strong electric fields (several hundred V/cm) are considered. The first ("classical" non-linear ef) is due to the interaction of the outer field with field-induced ionic charges in the electric double layer (EDL) under conditions, when field-induced variations of electrolyte concentration remain to be small comparatively to its equilibrium value. According to the Shilov theory, the non-linear component of the electrophoretic velocity for dielectric particles is proportional to the cubic power of the applied field strength (cubic electrophoresis) and to the second power of the particles radius; it is independent of the zeta-potential but is determined by the surface conductivity of particles. The second one, the so-called "superfast electrophoresis" is connected with the interaction of a strong outer field with a secondary diffuse layer of counterions (space charge) that is induced outside the primary (classical) diffuse EDL by the external field itself because of concentration polarization. The Dukhin-Mishchuk theory of "superfast electrophoresis" predicts quadratic dependence of the electrophoretic velocity of unipolar (ionically or electronically) conducting particles on the external field gradient and linear dependence on the particle's size in strong electric fields. These are in sharp contrast to the laws of classical electrophoresis (no dependence of V(ef) on the particle's size and linear dependence on the electric field gradient). A new method to measure the ef velocity of particles in strong electric fields is developed that is based on separation of the effects of sedimentation and electrophoresis using videoimaging and a new flowcell and use of short electric pulses. To test the "classical" non-linear electrophoresis, we have measured the ef velocity of non-conducting polystyrene, aluminium-oxide and (semiconductor) graphite particles as well as Saccharomice cerevisiae yeast cells as a

  16. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  17. QCD : the theory of strong interactions Conference MT17

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    The theory of strong interactions,Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), predicts that the strong interaction is transmitted by the exchange of particles called gluons. Unlike the messengers of electromagnetism photons, which are electrically neutral - gluons carry a strong charge associated with the interaction they mediate. QCD predicts that the strength of the interaction between quarks and gluons becomes weaker at higher energies. LEP has measured the evolution of the strong coupling constant up to energies of 200 GeV and has confirmed this prediction.

  18. QCD : the theory of strong interactions Exhibition LEPFest 2000

    CERN Multimedia

    2000-01-01

    The theory of strong interactions,Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD),predicts that the strong interac- tion is transmitted by the exchange of particles called glu- ons.Unlike the messengers of electromagnetism -pho- tons,which are electrically neutral -gluons carry a strong charge associated with the interaction they mediate. QCD predicts that the strength of the interaction between quarks and gluons becomes weaker at higher energies.LEP has measured the evolution of the strong coupling constant up to energies of 200 GeV and has confirmed this prediction.

  19. Motivation and future temporal orientation: a test of the self-handicapping hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennings, C J

    1999-06-01

    Self-handicapping motivation refers to the likelihood a person will project personal ambition into the future, make a pessimistic judgement, and then mobilise effort in the present to avoid an anticipated negative outcome. It should, therefore, be a correlate of future time perspective. This study showed for a sample of 120 first-year students that, whilst future time perspective did strongly predict scores on a measure of self-handicapping motivation, neither variable was a useful predictor of outcome.

  20. "Computer as Data Gatherer" for a New Generation: Martorella's Predictions, the Past, the Present, and the Future of Technology in Social Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Adam

    2014-01-01

    In his 1997 article "Technology and the Social Studies--or: Which Way to the Sleeping Giant?" Peter Martorella made several predictions regarding technology resources in the social studies. Through a 2014 lens, Martorella's Internet seems archaic, yet two of his predictions were particularly poignant and have had a significant impact on…

  1. ACE I/D sequence variants but not MTHFR C677T, is strongly linked to malignant glioma risk and its variant DD genotype may act as a promising predictive biomarker for overall survival of glioma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandith, Arshad A; Qasim, Iqbal; Zahoor, Wani; Shah, Parveen; Bhat, Abdul R

    2018-01-10

    ACE I/D and MTHFR C677T gene polymorphisms can be seen as candidate genes for glioma on the basis of their biological functions and their involvement in different cancers. The aim of this study was to analyze potential association and overall survival between MTHFR C677T and ACE I/D polymorphism in glioma patients in our population. We tested genotype distribution of 112 glioma patients against 141 cancer-free controls from the same region. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate overall survival of patients for both genes. No significant differences were found among MTHFR C677T wild type C and variant genotypes CT/TT with glioma patients. In ACE, the distribution of variant ID and DD was found to be significantly higher in glioma cases as compared to controls (pACE DD genotypes were highly presented in glioma cases 26.8% versus 10.6% in controls (pACE DD genotypes had the least estimated overall survival of 13.4months in comparison to 21. 7 and 17.6months for ACE II and I/D genotypes respectively. We conclude ACE I/D polymorphism plays a vital role in predisposition of higher risk for glioma. We also suggest that ACE DD genotypes may act as an important predictive biomarker for overall survival of glioma patients. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Protein-ligand interfaces are polarized: discovery of a strong trend for intermolecular hydrogen bonds to favor donors on the protein side with implications for predicting and designing ligand complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschka, Sebastian; Wolf, Alex J; Bemister-Buffington, Joseph; Kuhn, Leslie A

    2018-04-01

    Understanding how proteins encode ligand specificity is fascinating and similar in importance to deciphering the genetic code. For protein-ligand recognition, the combination of an almost infinite variety of interfacial shapes and patterns of chemical groups makes the problem especially challenging. Here we analyze data across non-homologous proteins in complex with small biological ligands to address observations made in our inhibitor discovery projects: that proteins favor donating H-bonds to ligands and avoid using groups with both H-bond donor and acceptor capacity. The resulting clear and significant chemical group matching preferences elucidate the code for protein-native ligand binding, similar to the dominant patterns found in nucleic acid base-pairing. On average, 90% of the keto and carboxylate oxygens occurring in the biological ligands formed direct H-bonds to the protein. A two-fold preference was found for protein atoms to act as H-bond donors and ligand atoms to act as acceptors, and 76% of all intermolecular H-bonds involved an amine donor. Together, the tight chemical and geometric constraints associated with satisfying donor groups generate a hydrogen-bonding lock that can be matched only by ligands bearing the right acceptor-rich key. Measuring an index of H-bond preference based on the observed chemical trends proved sufficient to predict other protein-ligand complexes and can be used to guide molecular design. The resulting Hbind and Protein Recognition Index software packages are being made available for rigorously defining intermolecular H-bonds and measuring the extent to which H-bonding patterns in a given complex match the preference key.

  3. Protein-ligand interfaces are polarized: discovery of a strong trend for intermolecular hydrogen bonds to favor donors on the protein side with implications for predicting and designing ligand complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschka, Sebastian; Wolf, Alex J.; Bemister-Buffington, Joseph; Kuhn, Leslie A.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding how proteins encode ligand specificity is fascinating and similar in importance to deciphering the genetic code. For protein-ligand recognition, the combination of an almost infinite variety of interfacial shapes and patterns of chemical groups makes the problem especially challenging. Here we analyze data across non-homologous proteins in complex with small biological ligands to address observations made in our inhibitor discovery projects: that proteins favor donating H-bonds to ligands and avoid using groups with both H-bond donor and acceptor capacity. The resulting clear and significant chemical group matching preferences elucidate the code for protein-native ligand binding, similar to the dominant patterns found in nucleic acid base-pairing. On average, 90% of the keto and carboxylate oxygens occurring in the biological ligands formed direct H-bonds to the protein. A two-fold preference was found for protein atoms to act as H-bond donors and ligand atoms to act as acceptors, and 76% of all intermolecular H-bonds involved an amine donor. Together, the tight chemical and geometric constraints associated with satisfying donor groups generate a hydrogen-bonding lock that can be matched only by ligands bearing the right acceptor-rich key. Measuring an index of H-bond preference based on the observed chemical trends proved sufficient to predict other protein-ligand complexes and can be used to guide molecular design. The resulting Hbind and Protein Recognition Index software packages are being made available for rigorously defining intermolecular H-bonds and measuring the extent to which H-bonding patterns in a given complex match the preference key.

  4. Introduced Terrestrial Species (Future)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — These data represent predicted future potential distributions of terrestrial plants, animals, and pathogens non-native to the Middle-Atlantic region. These data are...

  5. Back to the Future

    CERN Multimedia

    Collins, Graham

    2004-01-01

    "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future" said Nobel physicist Niels Bohr, many years ago. But two months ago, 150 leading physicists gathered at the University of California to engage in just that daunting task (1 page)

  6. Nonlinear wave collapse and strong turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.A.

    1997-01-01

    The theory and applications of wave self-focusing, collapse, and strongly nonlinear wave turbulence are reviewed. In the last decade, the theory of these phenomena and experimental realizations have progressed rapidly. Various nonlinear wave systems are discussed, but the simplest case of collapse and strong turbulence of Langmuir waves in an unmagnetized plasma is primarily used in explaining the theory and illustrating the main ideas. First, an overview of the basic physics of linear waves and nonlinear wave-wave interactions is given from an introductory perspective. Wave-wave processes are then considered in more detail. Next, an introductory overview of the physics of wave collapse and strong turbulence is provided, followed by a more detailed theoretical treatment. Later sections cover numerical simulations of Langmuir collapse and strong turbulence and experimental applications to space, ionospheric, and laboratory plasmas, including laser-plasma and beam-plasma interactions. Generalizations to self-focusing, collapse, and strong turbulence of waves in other systems are also discussed, including nonlinear optics, solid-state systems, magnetized auroral and astrophysical plasmas, and deep-water waves. The review ends with a summary of the main ideas of wave collapse and strong-turbulence theory, a collection of open questions in the field, and a brief discussion of possible future research directions. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  7. Stroke and TIA survivors’ cognitive beliefs and affective responses regarding treatment and future stroke risk differentially predict medication adherence and categorised stroke risk

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, L. Alison; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Abrams, Jessica; Horowitz, Carol R.

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive beliefs and affective responses to illness and treatment are known to independently predict health behaviours. The purpose of the current study is to assess the relative importance of four psychological domains – specifically, affective illness, cognitive illness, affective treatment and cognitive treatment – for predicting stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) survivors’ adherence to stroke prevention medications as well as their objective, categorised stroke risk. We assessed...

  8. Semi-classical description of Rydberg atoms in strong, single-cycle electromagnetic pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, R.V.; Sanders, M.M.

    1993-01-01

    Recent experimental measurements of the excitation and ionization of Rydberg atoms by single-cycle, electromagnetic pulses have revealed a variety of novel features. Because many quantum states are strongly coupled by the broadband radiation in the short pulse, the traditional methods of quantum mechanics are inadequate to account for the experimental results. We have therefore developed a semi-classical description of the interaction of both hydrogenic and non-hydrogenic atoms with single-cycle pulses of intense, electromagnetic radiation which is based on the strong correspondence theory of Percival and Richards. This theory, which was originally introduced for the description of strong atomic collisions, accounts for some of the surprising features of the experimental measurements and provides new predictions for future experimental studies

  9. Predicting H1N1 vaccine uptake and H1N1-related health beliefs: the role of individual difference in consideration of future consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nan, Xiaoli; Kim, Jarim

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the influence of individual difference in consideration of future consequences on H1N1 vaccine uptake and H1N1-related health beliefs (i.e., perceived susceptibility to and severity of the H1N1 flu, perceived efficacy and safety of the H1N1 vaccine, and perceived self-efficacy in obtaining the H1N1 vaccine). A survey of 411 college students showed that consideration of future consequences had no direct effect on vaccine uptake, but higher consideration of future consequences was associated with greater perceived severity of the flu, higher perceived effectiveness of the vaccine, and greater perceived self-efficacy. Additional analysis suggested that consideration of future consequences had a significant indirect effect on vaccine uptake through perceived vaccine efficacy. Results of the study also revealed gender and racial differences in some of the H1N1-related health beliefs. Implications of the findings for vaccine risk communication are discussed.

  10. Transionospheric propagation predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

    1979-01-01

    The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

  11. Quantum electrodynamics of strong fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greiner, W.

    1983-01-01

    Quantum Electrodynamics of Strong Fields provides a broad survey of the theoretical and experimental work accomplished, presenting papers by a group of international researchers who have made significant contributions to this developing area. Exploring the quantum theory of strong fields, the volume focuses on the phase transition to a charged vacuum in strong electric fields. The contributors also discuss such related topics as QED at short distances, precision tests of QED, nonperturbative QCD and confinement, pion condensation, and strong gravitational fields In addition, the volume features a historical paper on the roots of quantum field theory in the history of quantum physics by noted researcher Friedrich Hund

  12. Instabilities in strongly coupled plasmas

    CERN Document Server

    Kalman, G J

    2003-01-01

    The conventional Vlasov treatment of beam-plasma instabilities is inappropriate when the plasma is strongly coupled. In the strongly coupled liquid state, the strong correlations between the dust grains fundamentally affect the conditions for instability. In the crystalline state, the inherent anisotropy couples the longitudinal and transverse polarizations, and results in unstable excitations in both polarizations. We summarize analyses of resonant and non-resonant, as well as resistive instabilities. We consider both ion-dust streaming and dust beam-plasma instabilities. Strong coupling, in general, leads to an enhancement of the growth rates. In the crystalline phase, a resonant transverse instability can be excited.

  13. Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mazloumian

    Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

  14. Universal contact of strongly interacting fermions at finite temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Hui; Liu Xiaji; Drummond, Peter D, E-mail: hhu@swin.edu.au, E-mail: xiajiliu@swin.edu.au, E-mail: pdrummond@swin.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum-Atom Optics, Centre for Atom Optics and Ultrafast Spectroscopy, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne 3122 (Australia)

    2011-03-15

    The recently discovered universal thermodynamic behavior of dilute, strongly interacting Fermi gases also implies a universal structure in the many-body pair-correlation function at short distances, as quantified by the contact I. Here, we theoretically calculate the temperature dependence of this universal contact for a Fermi gas in free space and in a harmonic trap. At high temperatures above the Fermi degeneracy temperature, T{approx}>T{sub F}, we obtain a reliable non-perturbative quantum virial expansion up to third order. At low temperatures, we compare different approximate strong-coupling theories. These make different predictions, which need to be tested either by future experiments or by advanced quantum Monte Carlo simulations. We conjecture that in the universal unitarity limit, the contact or correlation decreases monotonically with increasing temperature, unless the temperature is significantly lower than the critical temperature, T<

  15. Improving paleoecology studies for future predictions: role of spatial and temporal scales for understanding ecology of the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David M.; Ng, Gene-Hua Crystal; Maher, Katharine

    2014-01-01

    Paleoecology (or ecological biogeography) describes the past distribution of species or communities and is an informative path used to understand the future in the face of climate change. Paleoecological changes in the Southwest over the past several thousand years happened in the presence of landscape manipulations by humans, a factor that adds relevance but increases difficulty of interpretation. What paleo-records are needed for (1) understanding past climate-driven changes (climate proxies), (2) resolving species sensitivity to and resilience against change (biogeographical data), and (3) understanding past ecosystem function and changes (environmental data)? What information is most urgently needed for ecosystem forecasts, and are there kinds of monitoring we need to start now so that we will have ground truth in the near future? These are major questions. Answering them for the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest in part relies on careful thought about the spatial and temporal scales of data needed.

  16. Short proofs of strong normalization

    OpenAIRE

    Wojdyga, Aleksander

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents simple, syntactic strong normalization proofs for the simply-typed lambda-calculus and the polymorphic lambda-calculus (system F) with the full set of logical connectives, and all the permutative reductions. The normalization proofs use translations of terms and types to systems, for which strong normalization property is known.

  17. The Future of Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Lombardi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to discuss the current state and future of auditing. Expert consensus is used as a basis to examine the current state of auditing and generate modifications both needed and likely to occur in the audit profession. This study contributes to the literature by using the Delphi method to develop predictions as to the direction of the audit industry and discuss the implications associated with these predictions. If auditors can better understand where the profession stands and where it is headed, then they can better prepare for the future. Some predictions emerging from this study relative to future audit practices include increasing automation of audit procedures, more predictive financial statements, continuous auditing of financial statements and transactions, and an increasingly global perspective regarding audit activities.

  18. Strong-back safety latch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeSantis, G.N.

    1995-01-01

    The calculation decides the integrity of the safety latch that will hold the strong-back to the pump during lifting. The safety latch will be welded to the strong-back and will latch to a 1.5-in. dia cantilever rod welded to the pump baseplate. The static and dynamic analysis shows that the safety latch will hold the strong-back to the pump if the friction clamps fail and the pump become free from the strong-back. Thus, the safety latch will meet the requirements of the Lifting and Rigging Manual for under the hook lifting for static loading; it can withstand shock loads from the strong-back falling 0.25 inch

  19. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  20. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis) on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Poul Scheel; Riisgård, Hans

    2016-01-01

    as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011) showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1) and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9) while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13) and Day 159 (Nov...... 20). Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition...... competition may deviate from the potential (optimal) growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated....

  1. Selecting Future Teachers: The Predictive Validity of Communication Skills, Personality and Academic Achievement in the Admission Process at an Asian University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Holmes

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the relationship between communication skills, personality factors and performance in secondary school and academic success in Teaching English as a Second Language (TESL programme in a Malaysian university. It was found that three specific skills: fluency, clarity and language use were modestly predictive of success over the first six semesters of the degree programme but that personality traits and general and educational knowledge were not. Performance on the Malaysian secondary school examination, especially in maths, also predicted academic success. It was also found that the qualities assessed at the interview were barely detectable by lecturers a little more than two years later although communicative skills were somewhat more so than the others. The findings suggest that when students are studying in the medium of a second language, communicative competence and prior academic achievement, possibly reflective of underlying general intelligence are important factors contributing to academic success.

  2. Follow-up duration influences the relative importance of OGTT and optimal timing of glucose measurements for predicting future type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mette Lundgren; Pareek, Manan; Leósdóttir, Margrét

    2016-01-01

    was recorded using registries. The performance of OGTT added to a clinical prediction model (age, body mass index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, fasting BG, triglycerides, and family history of diabetes) was assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI......OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of follow-up duration on the incremental prognostic yield of a baseline oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) for predicting type 2 diabetes and to assess the discrimination ability of blood glucose (BG) obtained at different time points during OGTT. DESIGN......: A prospective, population-based cohort study (Malmö Preventive Project) with inclusion of subjects from 1974 to 1992. METHODS: A total of 5256 men without diabetes, who had BG measured at 0, 20, 40, 60, 90, and 120 min during OGTT (30 g/m2 glucose), were followed for 30 years. Incident type 2 diabetes...

  3. Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. CHOUET

    1977-06-01

    Full Text Available RIASSUNTO. - Questa nota descrive un nuovo metodo per calcolare le registrazioni
    accelerografìehe per una data regione sismica in base alle leggi fisiche
    usando le informazioni relative alla tettonica ed alle proprietà fisiche della faglia
    sismica.
    Il metodo si basa su di un nuovo modello sismico, chiamato « modello
    b a r r i e r a » , caratterizzato da cinque parametri focali: lunghezza della faglia,
    larghezza, scorrimento massimo, velocità di rottura ed intervallo di barriera.
    I primi tre parametri possono essere vincolati dalla tettonica a placche, il
    quarto parametro è approssimativamente una costante. Il parametro più importante,
    che controlla l'accelerazione del terremoto, è l'ultimo, l'intervallo « barriera ».
    Vi sono tre metodi per valutare 1' « intervallo barriera » per una data
    regione sismica: 1 misurazione in superficie dello scorrimento attraverso fratture
    di faglia; 2 creazione di un modello che si adatti all'osservazione di
    campi vicini e lontani; 5 una legge che regoli i dati per i piccoli terremoti nella
    regione.
    Gli intervalli barriera sono stati valutati per una dozzina di terremoti e
    per quattro regioni sismiche, per mezzo dei tre metodi suindicati. I risultati
    preliminari ottenuti per la California suggeriscono che l'intervallo barriera
    possa essere determinato quando sia dato il massimo scorrimento. La relazione
    tra l'intervallo barriera ed il massimo scorrimento varia da una regione sismica
    all'altra. Ad esempio, l'intervallo appare insolitamente lungo per Kilanea (Hawaii,
    il che può spiegare perché traccia di forte scorrimento del terreno sia stata
    osservata soltanto nell'area epicentrale del terremoto delle Isole Hawaii del 29
    novembre 1975.

  4. Prediction of crack propagation in layered ceramics with strong interfaces

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Náhlík, Luboš; Šestáková, L.; Hutař, Pavel; Bermejo, R.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 77, č. 11 (2010), s. 2192-2199 ISSN 0013-7944 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) KJB200410803; GA ČR GA101/09/1821 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : Ceramic laminate * Crack propagation direction * Residual stress * Flaw tolerant ceramics * Optimal design Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 1.571, year: 2010

  5. Predicting Future Reading Problems Based on Pre-reading Auditory Measures: A Longitudinal Study of Children with a Familial Risk of Dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Jeremy M; Vandermosten, Maaike; Ghesquière, Pol; Wouters, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This longitudinal study examines measures of temporal auditory processing in pre-reading children with a family risk of dyslexia. Specifically, it attempts to ascertain whether pre-reading auditory processing, speech perception, and phonological awareness (PA) reliably predict later literacy achievement. Additionally, this study retrospectively examines the presence of pre-reading auditory processing, speech perception, and PA impairments in children later found to be literacy impaired. Method: Forty-four pre-reading children with and without a family risk of dyslexia were assessed at three time points (kindergarten, first, and second grade). Auditory processing measures of rise time (RT) discrimination and frequency modulation (FM) along with speech perception, PA, and various literacy tasks were assessed. Results: Kindergarten RT uniquely contributed to growth in literacy in grades one and two, even after controlling for letter knowledge and PA. Highly significant concurrent and predictive correlations were observed with kindergarten RT significantly predicting first grade PA. Retrospective analysis demonstrated atypical performance in RT and PA at all three time points in children who later developed literacy impairments. Conclusions: Although significant, kindergarten auditory processing contributions to later literacy growth lack the power to be considered as a single-cause predictor; thus results support temporal processing deficits' contribution within a multiple deficit model of dyslexia.

  6. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  7. Unification predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghilencea, D.; Ross, G.G.; Lanzagorta, M.

    1997-07-01

    The unification of gauge couplings suggests that there is an underlying (supersymmetric) unification of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions. The prediction of the unification scale may be the first quantitative indication that this unification may extend to unification with gravity. We make a precise determination of these predictions for a class of models which extend the multiplet structure of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model to include the heavy states expected in many Grand Unified and/or superstring theories. We show that there is a strong cancellation between the 2-loop and threshold effects. As a result the net effect is smaller than previously thought, giving a small increase in both the unification scale and the value of the strong coupling at low energies. (author). 15 refs, 5 figs

  8. Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/Tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence from the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, Bryan W; Cummings, K Michael; Nahas, Georges J; Willemsen, Marc C; O'Connor, Richard J; Borland, Ron; Hirsch, Alexander A; Bickel, Warren K; Carpenter, Matthew J

    2018-03-14

    The demand for alternative nicotine/tobacco products is not well established. This paper uses a behavioral economic approach to test whether smokers have differential demand for conventional factory-made, electronic, and very low nicotine content cigarettes (FMCs/ECs/VLNCs) and uses the prospective cohort design to test the predictive validity of demand indices on subsequent use of commercially available FMCs and ECs. Daily smokers (>16 years) from the Netherlands completed an online survey in April 2014 (N=1215). Purchase tasks were completed for FMCs, ECs, and VLNCs. Participants indicated the number of cigarettes they would consume in 24 hours, across a range of prices (0-30 euro). The relationship between consumption and price was quantified into four indices of demand (intensity, Pmax, breakpoint, and essential value). A follow-up survey in July 2015 measured FMC and EC use. At baseline, greater demand was observed for FMCs relative to ECs and VLNCs across all demand indices, with no difference between ECs and VLNCs. At follow-up, greater baseline FMC demand (intensity, essential value) was associated with lower quit rates and higher relapse. EC demand (Pmax, breakpoint, essential value) was positively associated with any EC use between survey waves, past 30 day EC use, and EC purchase between waves. Smokers valued FMCs more than ECs or VLNCs, and FMCs were less sensitive to price increases. Demand indices predicted use of commercially available products over a 15 month period. To serve as viable substitutes for FMCs, ECs and VLNCs will need to be priced lower than FMCs. Purchase tasks can be adapted for novel nicotine/tobacco products as a means to efficiently quantify demand and predict use. Among current daily smokers, the demand for ECs and VLNCs is lower than FMCs.

  9. U.S. aerospace industry opinion of the effect of computer-aided prediction-design technology on future wind-tunnel test requirements for aircraft development programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treon, S. L.

    1979-01-01

    A survey of the U.S. aerospace industry in late 1977 suggests that there will be an increasing use of computer-aided prediction-design technology (CPD Tech) in the aircraft development process but that, overall, only a modest reduction in wind-tunnel test requirements from the current level is expected in the period through 1995. Opinions were received from key spokesmen in 23 of the 26 solicited major companies or corporate divisions involved in the design and manufacture of nonrotary wing aircraft. Development programs for nine types of aircraft related to test phases and wind-tunnel size and speed range were considered.

  10. A systematic study of mass spectra and strong decay of strange mesons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pang, Cheng-Qun [Lanzhou University, School of Physical Science and Technology, Lanzhou (China); Qinghai Normal University, College of Physics and Electronic Information Engineering, Xining (China); Wang, Jun-Zhang; Liu, Xiang [Lanzhou University, School of Physical Science and Technology, Lanzhou (China); Lanzhou University and Institute of Modern Physics of CAS, Research Center for Hadron and CSR Physics, Lanzhou (China); Matsuki, Takayuki [Tokyo Kasei University, Tokyo (Japan); Theoretical Research Division, Nishina Center, RIKEN, Saitama (Japan)

    2017-12-15

    The mass spectrum of the kaon family is analyzed by the modified Godfrey-Isgur model with a color screening effect approximating the kaon as a heavy-light meson system. This analysis gives us the structure and possible assignments of the observed kaon candidates, which can be tested by comparing the theoretical results of their two-body strong decays with the experimental data. Additionally, prediction of some partial decay widths is made on the kaons still missing in experiment. This study is crucial to establishing the kaon family and searching for their higher excitations in the future. (orig.)

  11. Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

  12. Strong Interaction Studies with PANDA at FAIR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönning, Karin

    2016-10-01

    The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) in Darmstadt, Germany, provides unique possibilities for a new generation of nuclear-, hadron- and atomic physics experiments. The future PANDA experiment at FAIR will offer a broad physics programme with emphasis on different aspects of hadron physics. Understanding the strong interaction in the perturbative regime remains one of the greatest challenges in contemporary physics and hadrons provide several important keys. In these proceedings, PANDA will be presented along with some high-lights of the planned physics programme.

  13. Strong Interaction Studies with PANDA at FAIR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schönning, Karin

    2016-01-01

    The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) in Darmstadt, Germany, provides unique possibilities for a new generation of nuclear-, hadron- and atomic physics experiments. The future PANDA experiment at FAIR will offer a broad physics programme with emphasis on different aspects of hadron physics. Understanding the strong interaction in the perturbative regime remains one of the greatest challenges in contemporary physics and hadrons provide several important keys. In these proceedings, PANDA will be presented along with some high-lights of the planned physics programme

  14. How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

    2017-12-01

    Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Stroke and TIA survivors’ cognitive beliefs and affective responses regarding treatment and future stroke risk differentially predict medication adherence and categorised stroke risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, L. Alison; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Abrams, Jessica; Horowitz, Carol R.

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive beliefs and affective responses to illness and treatment are known to independently predict health behaviours. The purpose of the current study is to assess the relative importance of four psychological domains – specifically, affective illness, cognitive illness, affective treatment and cognitive treatment – for predicting stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) survivors’ adherence to stroke prevention medications as well as their objective, categorised stroke risk. We assessed these domains among stroke/TIA survivors (n = 600), and conducted correlation and regression analyses with concurrent and prospective outcomes to determine the relative importance of each cognitive and affective domain for adherence and stroke risk. As hypothesised, patients’ affective treatment responses explained the greatest unique variance in baseline and six-month adherence reports (8 and 5%, respectively, of the variance in adherence, compared to 1–3% explained by other domains). Counter to hypotheses, patients’ cognitive illness beliefs explained the greatest unique variance in baseline and six-month objective categorised stroke risk (3 and 2%, respectively, compared to 0–1% explained by other domains). Results indicate that domain type (i.e. cognitive and affective) and domain referent (illness and treatment) may be differentially important for providers to assess when treating patients for stroke/TIA. More research is required to further distinguish between these domains and their relative importance for stroke prevention. PMID:25220292

  16. Stroke and TIA survivors' cognitive beliefs and affective responses regarding treatment and future stroke risk differentially predict medication adherence and categorised stroke risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, L Alison; Diefenbach, Michael A; Abrams, Jessica; Horowitz, Carol R

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive beliefs and affective responses to illness and treatment are known to independently predict health behaviours. The purpose of the current study is to assess the relative importance of four psychological domains - specifically, affective illness, cognitive illness, affective treatment and cognitive treatment - for predicting stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) survivors' adherence to stroke prevention medications as well as their objective, categorised stroke risk. We assessed these domains among stroke/TIA survivors (n = 600), and conducted correlation and regression analyses with concurrent and prospective outcomes to determine the relative importance of each cognitive and affective domain for adherence and stroke risk. As hypothesised, patients' affective treatment responses explained the greatest unique variance in baseline and six-month adherence reports (8 and 5%, respectively, of the variance in adherence, compared to 1-3% explained by other domains). Counter to hypotheses, patients' cognitive illness beliefs explained the greatest unique variance in baseline and six-month objective categorised stroke risk (3 and 2%, respectively, compared to 0-1% explained by other domains). Results indicate that domain type (i.e. cognitive and affective) and domain referent (illness and treatment) may be differentially important for providers to assess when treating patients for stroke/TIA. More research is required to further distinguish between these domains and their relative importance for stroke prevention.

  17. Prevention of strong earthquakes: Goal or utopia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhamediev, Sh. A.

    2010-11-01

    In the present paper, we consider ideas suggesting various kinds of industrial impact on the close-to-failure block of the Earth’s crust in order to break a pending strong earthquake (PSE) into a number of smaller quakes or aseismic slips. Among the published proposals on the prevention of a forthcoming strong earthquake, methods based on water injection and vibro influence merit greater attention as they are based on field observations and the results of laboratory tests. In spite of this, the cited proofs are, for various reasons, insufficient to acknowledge the proposed techniques as highly substantiated; in addition, the physical essence of these methods has still not been fully understood. First, the key concept of the methods, namely, the release of the accumulated stresses (or excessive elastic energy) in the source region of a forthcoming strong earthquake, is open to objection. If we treat an earthquake as a phenomenon of a loss in stability, then, the heterogeneities of the physicomechanical properties and stresses along the existing fault or its future trajectory, rather than the absolute values of stresses, play the most important role. In the present paper, this statement is illustrated by the classical examples of stable and unstable fractures and by the examples of the calculated stress fields, which were realized in the source regions of the tsunamigenic earthquakes of December 26, 2004 near the Sumatra Island and of September 29, 2009 near the Samoa Island. Here, just before the earthquakes, there were no excessive stresses in the source regions. Quite the opposite, the maximum shear stresses τmax were close to their minimum value, compared to τmax in the adjacent territory. In the present paper, we provide quantitative examples that falsify the theory of the prevention of PSE in its current form. It is shown that the measures for the prevention of PSE, even when successful for an already existing fault, can trigger or accelerate a catastrophic

  18. Worksite health promotion research: challenges, current state and future directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg F. Bauer

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available

    <strong>Background>: Worksite health promotion (WHP addresses diverse individual and work-related health determinants. Thus, multiple, non-standardized interventions as well as company outcomes other than health have to be considered in WHP research.

    <strong>Methods>: The article builds primarily on published research reviews in WHP and related fields. It discusses key practical and research challenges of the workplace setting. The evidence available on the effectiveness of WHP is summarised and conclusions are drawn for future WHP practice and research.

    <strong>Results>: <strong>WHP research strong>on health-oriented, behavioural interventions shows that the level of evidence ranges from suggestive to acceptable for key prevention areas such as physical activity, nutrition, fitness, smoking, alcohol and stress. Such interventions are effective if key conditions are met. Future research is needed on long-term effects, on multi-component programs and on programs, which address environmental determinants of health behaviour as well. Research on work-related determinants of health shows the economic and public health relevance of WHP interventions. Reviews of work-oriented, organisational interventions show that they produce a range of individual and organisational outcomes. However, due to the complexity of the organisational context, the generalisability and predictability of such outcomes remain limited.

    <strong>Conclusions>: WHP research shows success factors of WHP and provides evidence of its effectiveness. In future, the evidence base should be expanded by developing adaptive, company-driven intervention approaches which allow for continuous optimisation of companies from a health perspective. Also, approaches for active dissemination of such a systemic-salutogenic occupational health management approach should be developed to increase the public health impact of WHP.

  19. It gets better: future orientation buffers the development of hopelessness and depressive symptoms following emotional victimization during early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jessica L; Connolly, Samantha L; Liu, Richard T; Stange, Jonathan P; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-04-01

    Research consistently has linked hopelessness to a range of negative outcomes, including depression, during adolescence. Although interpersonal stressors such as familial and peer emotional victimization have been found to contribute to hopelessness, less research has examined whether adolescents with a greater tendency to think about and plan for the future (i.e., future orientation) are protected against the development of hopelessness, particularly in the context of negative events. Thus, the current study evaluated whether peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with a weaker future orientation than those with a stronger orientation towards the future, and whether hopelessness in turn predicted increases in depression. In a diverse sample of 259 early adolescents (54% female; 51% African American; Mage = 12.86 years), both peer and familial emotional victimization predicted increases in hopelessness more strongly among adolescents with weaker future orientations than among those with stronger future orientations. Further, moderated mediation analyses revealed that hopelessness significantly mediated the relationship between emotional victimization and increases in depressive symptoms more strongly among adolescents with weaker orientations towards the future compared to those with stronger future orientations. These findings indicate that adolescents' tendency to think about the future may impact whether emotional victimization induces hopelessness and ultimately depressive symptoms during early adolescence. Results have important implications regarding intervention and prevention of depression during the critical developmental period of adolescence.

  20. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2018-01-01

    LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

  1. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku

    2009-01-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km 2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km 2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km 2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km 2 ) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km 2 ), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km 2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  2. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaveau, David L. A.; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku; Leader-Williams, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km2) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km2), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  3. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel [Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR (United Kingdom); Wich, Serge [Great Apes Trust of Iowa, 4200 SE 44th Avenue, Des Moines, IA 50320 (United States); Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202 (United States); Kanninen, Markku, E-mail: dgaveau@yahoo.co.u, E-mail: swich@greatapetrust.or, E-mail: justep22@myfastmail.co, E-mail: d.juhn@conservation.or, E-mail: m.kanninen@cgiar.or, E-mail: n.leader-williams@kent.ac.u [Center for International Forestry Research, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sidang Barang, Bogor, West Java (Indonesia)

    2009-09-15

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km{sup 2} that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km{sup 2} protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km{sup 2} of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km{sup 2}) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km{sup 2}), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km{sup 2} of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an

  4. Cosmogenic photons strongly constrain UHECR source models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Vliet Arjen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the newest version of our Monte Carlo code for ultra-high-energy cosmic ray (UHECR propagation, CRPropa 3, the flux of neutrinos and photons due to interactions of UHECRs with extragalactic background light can be predicted. Together with the recently updated data for the isotropic diffuse gamma-ray background (IGRB by Fermi LAT, it is now possible to severely constrain UHECR source models. The evolution of the UHECR sources especially plays an important role in the determination of the expected secondary photon spectrum. Pure proton UHECR models are already strongly constrained, primarily by the highest energy bins of Fermi LAT’s IGRB, as long as their number density is not strongly peaked at recent times.

  5. Time perspective and attitude-behaviour consistency in future-oriented behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinovich, Anna; Morton, Thomas; Postmes, Tom

    2010-03-01

    The authors propose that the salience of a distant-future time perspective, compared to a near-future time perspective, should increase attitude-behaviour and attitude-intention consistency for future-oriented behaviours. To test this prediction, time perspective was experimentally manipulated in three studies. Across studies, participants in the distant-future time perspective condition demonstrated a strong positive relationship between attitudes towards future-oriented behaviours (saving and environmental protection) and corresponding intentions, as well as between attitudes and behaviour. In the near-future time perspective condition, the relationship between attitudes and intentions and attitudes and behaviour was significantly weaker than in the distant-future time perspective condition. The theoretical implications of these results and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  6. Nonlinear charge reduction effect in strongly coupled plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmah, D; Tessarotto, M; Salimullah, M

    2006-01-01

    The charge reduction effect, produced by the nonlinear Debye screening of high-Z charges occurring in strongly coupled plasmas, is investigated. An analytic asymptotic expression is obtained for the charge reduction factor (f c ) which determines the Debye-Hueckel potential generated by a charged test particle. Its relevant parametric dependencies are analysed and shown to predict a strong charge reduction effect in strongly coupled plasmas

  7. THEORETICAL EVOLUTION OF OPTICAL STRONG LINES ACROSS COSMIC TIME

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kewley, Lisa J.; Dopita, Michael A.; Sutherland, Ralph [Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Leitherer, Claus [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Dave, Romeel [Department of Astronomy/Steward Observatory, 933 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721-0065 (United States); Yuan, Tiantian [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Allen, Mark [Observatoire de Strasbourg, UMR 7550, Strasbourg 67000 (France); Groves, Brent, E-mail: kewley@mso.anu.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2013-09-10

    We use the chemical evolution predictions of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations with our latest theoretical stellar population synthesis, photoionization, and shock models to predict the strong line evolution of ensembles of galaxies from z = 3 to the present day. In this paper, we focus on the brightest optical emission-line ratios, [N II]/H{alpha} and [O III]/H{beta}. We use the optical diagnostic Baldwin-Phillips-Terlevich (BPT) diagram as a tool for investigating the spectral properties of ensembles of active galaxies. We use four redshift windows chosen to exploit new near-infrared multi-object spectrographs. We predict how the BPT diagram will appear in these four redshift windows given different sets of assumptions. We show that the position of star-forming galaxies on the BPT diagram traces the interstellar medium conditions and radiation field in galaxies at a given redshift. Galaxies containing active galactic nucleus (AGN) form a mixing sequence with purely star-forming galaxies. This mixing sequence may change dramatically with cosmic time, due to the metallicity sensitivity of the optical emission-lines. Furthermore, the position of the mixing sequence may probe metallicity gradients in galaxies as a function of redshift, depending on the size of the AGN narrow-line region. We apply our latest slow shock models for gas shocked by galactic-scale winds. We show that at high redshift, galactic wind shocks are clearly separated from AGN in line ratio space. Instead, shocks from galactic winds mimic high metallicity starburst galaxies. We discuss our models in the context of future large near-infrared spectroscopic surveys.

  8. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  9. Machine Learning Phases of Strongly Correlated Fermions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin Ch’ng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Machine learning offers an unprecedented perspective for the problem of classifying phases in condensed matter physics. We employ neural-network machine learning techniques to distinguish finite-temperature phases of the strongly correlated fermions on cubic lattices. We show that a three-dimensional convolutional network trained on auxiliary field configurations produced by quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the Hubbard model can correctly predict the magnetic phase diagram of the model at the average density of one (half filling. We then use the network, trained at half filling, to explore the trend in the transition temperature as the system is doped away from half filling. This transfer learning approach predicts that the instability to the magnetic phase extends to at least 5% doping in this region. Our results pave the way for other machine learning applications in correlated quantum many-body systems.

  10. Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with

  11. Strong coupling phase in QED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, Ken-ichi

    1988-01-01

    Existence of a strong coupling phase in QED has been suggested in solutions of the Schwinger-Dyson equation and in Monte Carlo simulation of lattice QED. In this article we recapitulate the previous arguments, and formulate the problem in the modern framework of the renormalization theory, Wilsonian renormalization. This scheme of renormalization gives the best understanding of the basic structure of a field theory especially when it has a multi-phase structure. We resolve some misleading arguments in the previous literature. Then we set up a strategy to attack the strong phase, if any. We describe a trial; a coupled Schwinger-Dyson equation. Possible picture of the strong coupling phase QED is presented. (author)

  12. Strong interactions at high energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anselmino, M.

    1995-01-01

    Spin effects in strong interaction high energy processes are subtle phenomena which involve both short and long distance physics and test perturbative and non perturbative aspects of QCD. Moreover, depending on quantities like interferences between different amplitudes and relative phases, spin observables always test a theory at a fundamental quantum mechanical level; it is then no surprise that spin data are often difficult to accommodate within the existing models. A report is made on the main issues and contributions discussed in the parallel Session on the open-quote open-quote Strong interactions at high energy close-quote close-quote in this Conference. copyright 1995 American Institute of Physics

  13. Strong-field dissociation dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DiMauro, L.F.; Yang, Baorui.

    1993-01-01

    The strong-field dissociation behavior of diatomic molecules is examined under two distinctive physical scenarios. In the first scenario, the dissociation of the isolated hydrogen and deuterium molecular ions is discussed. The dynamics of above-threshold dissociation (ATD) are investigated over a wide range of green and infrared intensities and compared to a dressed-state model. The second situation arises when strong-field neutral dissociation is followed by ionization of the atomic fragments. The study results in a direct measure of the atomic fragment's ac-Stark shift by observing the intensity-dependent shifts in the electron or nuclear fragment kinetic energy. 8 figs., 14 refs

  14. Potential performance analysis and future trend prediction of electric vehicle with V2G/V2H/V2B capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalong Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the intermittent nature, renewable energy sources (RES has brought new challenges on load balancing and energy dispatching to the Smart Grid. Potentially served as distributed energy storage, Electric Vehicle’s (EV battery can be used as a way to help mitigate the pressure of fluctuation brought by RES and reinforce the stability of power systems. This paper gives a comprehensive review of the current situation of EV technology and mainly emphasizing three EV discharging operations which are Vehicle to Grid (V2G, Vehicle to Home (V2H, and Vehicle to Building (V2B, respectively. When needed, EV’s battery can discharge and send its surplus energy back to power grid, residential homes, or buildings. Based on our data analysis, we argue that V2G with the largest transmission power losses is potentially less efficient compared with the other two modes. We show that the residential users have the incentive to schedule the charging, V2G, and V2H according to the real-time price (RTP and the market sell-back price. In addition, we discuss some challenges and potential risks resulting from EVs’ fast growth. Finally we propose some suggestions on future power systems and also argue that some incentives or rewards need to be provided to motivate EV owners to behave in the best interests of the overall power systems.

  15. Do the Results of the Process Indicators in the Norwegian Br