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Sample records for strongly predicted future

  1. Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

    2003-06-01

    The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

  2. CN earthquake prediction algorithm and the monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldoveanu, C.L.; Radulian, M.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    The strong earthquakes originating at intermediate-depth in the Vrancea region (located in the SE corner of the highly bent Carpathian arc) represent one of the most important natural disasters able to induce heavy effects (high tool of casualties and extensive damage) in the Romanian territory. The occurrence of these earthquakes is irregular, but not infrequent. Their effects are felt over a large territory, from Central Europe to Moscow and from Greece to Scandinavia. The largest cultural and economical center exposed to the seismic risk due to the Vrancea earthquakes is Bucharest. This metropolitan area (230 km 2 wide) is characterized by the presence of 2.5 million inhabitants (10% of the country population) and by a considerable number of high-risk structures and infrastructures. The best way to face strong earthquakes is to mitigate the seismic risk by using the two possible complementary approaches represented by (a) the antiseismic design of structures and infrastructures (able to support strong earthquakes without significant damage), and (b) the strong earthquake prediction (in terms of alarm intervals declared for long, intermediate or short-term space-and time-windows). The intermediate term medium-range earthquake prediction represents the most realistic target to be reached at the present state of knowledge. The alarm declared in this case extends over a time window of about one year or more, and a space window of a few hundreds of kilometers. In the case of Vrancea events the spatial uncertainty is much less, being of about 100 km. The main measures for the mitigation of the seismic risk allowed by the intermediate-term medium-range prediction are: (a) verification of the buildings and infrastructures stability and reinforcement measures when required, (b) elaboration of emergency plans of action, (c) schedule of the main actions required in order to restore the normality of the social and economical life after the earthquake. The paper presents the

  3. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  4. Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Z. Li

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.

  5. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  6. A single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid presence and size is strongly predictive of future uterine procedure: 8-year follow-up of randomly sampled premenopausal women aged 35-49 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baird, D D; Saldana, T M; Shore, D L; Hill, M C; Schectman, J M

    2015-12-01

    How well can a single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid burden (presence or absence of fibroids and size of largest, if present) predict future probability of having a major uterine procedure? During an 8-year follow-up period, the risk of having a major uterine procedure was 2% for those without fibroids and increased with fibroid size for those with fibroids, reaching 47% for those with fibroids ≥ 4 cm in diameter at baseline. Uterine fibroids are a leading indication for hysterectomy. However, when fibroids are found, there are few available data to help clinicians advise patients about disease progression. Women who were 35-49 years old were randomly selected from the membership of a large urban health plan; 80% of those determined to be eligible were enrolled and screened with ultrasound for fibroids ≥ 0.5 cm in diameter. African-American and white premenopausal participants who responded to at least one follow-up interview (N = 964, 85% of those eligible) constituted the study cohort. During follow-up (5822 person-years), participants self-reported any major uterine procedure (67% hysterectomies). Life-table analyses and Cox regression (with censoring for menopause) were used to estimate the risk of having a uterine procedure for women with no fibroids, small (value for interaction = 0.88). Once fibroid size at enrollment was accounted for, having a prior diagnosis at the time of ultrasound screening was not predictive of having a procedure. Exclusion of women with a submucosal fibroid had little influence on the results. The 8-year risk of a procedure based on lifetable analyses was 2% for women with no fibroids, 8, 23, and 47%, respectively, for women who had small, medium or large fibroids at enrollment. Given the strong association of fibroid size with subsequent risk of a procedure, these findings are unlikely to be due to chance. Despite a large sample size, the number of women having procedures during follow-up was relatively small. Thus

  7. Designers predict a bright future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statton, T.D.

    1996-01-01

    As power plant designers and builders, there is a bright future for the industry. The demand for electricity will continue to grow, and the need for new plants will increase accordingly. But companies that develop and supply these plants must adapt to new ways of doing business if they expect to see the dawn of this new age. Several factors will have a profound effect on the generation and use of electricity in future years. Instant communications now reach all corners of the globe, making people everywhere aspire to a higher standard of living. The economic surge needed to satisfy these appetites will, in turn, be fed by a network of suppliers who are themselves restructuring to serve global markets, unimpeded by past nationalistic barriers to trade. The strong correlation between economic progress and the growing demand for electricity is well recognized. A ready supply of affordable electricity is a necessary underpinning for any economic expansion. As economies advance and jobs increase, electric demand grows geometrically, fueled by an ever-improving quality of life. Coupled with increasing demand is the worldwide trend toward privatization of the generation industry. The reasons may vary in different parts of the world, but the effect is the same--companies are battling intensely for the right to build or purchase generating facilities. Those companies, like the industry they serve, are themselves in a period of transition. Once a closed, monopolistic group of owners in a predominantly services-based market, they are, thanks to competitive forces, being driven steadily toward a product-based structure

  8. Computer predictions for future Tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duechs, D.F.

    1978-01-01

    Proceeding from a reasonable agreement with existing experimental results, this lecture presents radial particle and energy transport computations which extrapolate to large (up to reactor dimensions) future Tokamaks. Special consideration is given to the behavior of alpha-particles, the influence of high-z impurities, and the thermal stability of the plasma

  9. Prediction of the occurrence of related strong earthquakes in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vorobieva, I.A.; Panza, G.F.

    1993-06-01

    In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicentre of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the World, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. So far, it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict. The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without any adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, quite often the series of strong earthquakes are relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely ''preliminary'' recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. (author). Refs, 3 figs, 7 tabs

  10. Predicting the future of sports organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jugoslav Vojinovic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277 was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs ("experimental" sample and 164 individuals ("control" sample. The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can't say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.

  11. Memory, Imagination, and Predicting the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullally, Sinéad L.

    2014-01-01

    On the face of it, memory, imagination, and prediction seem to be distinct cognitive functions. However, metacognitive, cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging evidence is emerging that they are not, suggesting intimate links in their underlying processes. Here, we explore these empirical findings and the evolving theoretical frameworks that seek to explain how a common neural system supports our recollection of times past, imagination, and our attempts to predict the future. PMID:23846418

  12. Envisioning the future by predicting the past

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skrydstrup, Martin

    2017-01-01

    ), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future...

  13. Prediction of strong ground motion based on scaling law of earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1991-01-01

    In order to predict more practically strong ground motion, it is important to study how to use a semi-empirical method in case of having no appropriate observation records for actual small-events as empirical Green's functions. We propose a prediction procedure using artificially simulated small ground motions as substitute for the actual motions. First, we simulate small-event motion by means of stochastic simulation method proposed by Boore (1983) in considering pass effects such as attenuation, and broadening of waveform envelope empirically in the objective region. Finally, we attempt to predict the strong ground motion due to a future large earthquake (M 7, Δ = 13 km) using the same summation procedure as the empirical Green's function method. We obtained the results that the characteristics of the synthetic motion using M 5 motion were in good agreement with those by the empirical Green's function method. (author)

  14. Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

    2017-12-01

    The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

  15. Plasma predictions: past, present and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowke, J. J.

    2013-04-01

    Tools for predictions of plasma properties in the last 50 years have evolved from largely analytic representations, for example using Bessel functions, to the present methods, which extensively use computers. Furthermore, there is a marked unification of predictive capabilities, spanning the use of basic atomic and molecular data such as electron-atom cross-sections, leading to the calculation of transport coefficients such as thermal and electrical conductivities and finally to detailed predictions of plasma processing, e.g. the influence of fluxes on weld profiles in arc welding. Present calculations in the range of different directions are outlined, all likely to lead to new developments in the future. The examples are (1) predictions spanning collisionless to collision-dominated plasmas—such as are required for understanding the role of cathode voltages of non-thermionic cathodes. (2) Plasma chemistry predictions—such as are required to understand electrical breakdown in air to include the role of nitrogen metastables. (3) Predictions of the interactions of ion flow and insulating surfaces—such as could explain the existence of ball lightning. Finally, (4) the greater consideration of magnetic forces on astrophysical plasmas, which may explain the regular properties of the solar system.

  16. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  17. Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction: Background, Current Status, and Future Direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    1997-01-01

    Helicopter noise prediction is increasingly important. The purpose of this viewgraph presentation is to: 1) Put into perspective the recent progress; 2) Outline current prediction capabilities; 3) Forecast direction of future prediction research; 4) Identify rotorcraft noise prediction needs. The presentation includes an historical perspective, a description of governing equations, and the current status of source noise prediction.

  18. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  19. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

  20. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  1. Predictive toxicology: the paths of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detilleux, Ph.; Vallier, L.; Legallais, C.; Leclerc, E.; Prot, J.M.; Choucha, L.; Baudoin, R.; Dufresne, M.; Gautier, A.; Carpentier, B.; Mansuy, D.; Pery, A.; Brochot, C.; Manivet, Ph.; Rabilloud, Th.; Spire, C.; Coumoul, X.; Junot, Ch.; Laprevote, O.; Le pape, A.; Le Guevel, R.; Tourneur, E.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Chassin, C.; Aloulou, M.; Goujon, J.M.; Hertif, A.; Ouali, N.; Vimont, S.; Monteiro, R.; Rondeau, E.; Elbim, C.; Werts, C.; Vandewalle, A.; Ben Mkaddem, S.; Pedruzzi, E.; Coant, N.; Bens, M.; Cluzeaud, F.; Ogier-Denis, E.; Pongnimitprasert, N.; Babin-Chevaye, C.; Fay, M.; Bernard, M.; Dupuy, C.; Ei Benna, J.; Gougerot-Pocidale, M.A.; Braut-Boucher, F.; Pinton, Ph.; Lucioli, J.; Tsybulskyy, D.; Joly, B.; Laffitte, J.; Bourges-Abella, N.; Oswald, I.P.; Kolf-Clauw, M.; Pierre, St.; Bats, A.S.; Chevallier, A.; Bui, L.Ch.; Ambolet-Camoit, A.; Garlatti, M.; Aggerbeck, M.; Barouki, R.; Al Khansa, I.; Blanck, O.; Guillouzo, A.; Bars, R.; Rouas, C.; Bensoussan, H.; Suhard, D.; Tessier, C.; Grandcolas, L.; Pallardy, M.; Gueguen, Y.; Sparfel, L.; Pinel-Marie, M.L.; Boize, M.; Koscielny, S.; Desmots, S.; Pery, A.; Fardel, O.; Alvergnas, M.; Rouleau, A.; Lucchi, G.; Mantion, G.; Heyd, B.; Richert, L.; Ducoroy, P.; Martin, H.; Val, St.; Martinon, L.; Cachier, H.; Yahyaoui, A.; Marfaing, H.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martin-Chouly, C.; Bonvallet, M.; Morzadec, C.; Fardel, O.; Vernhet, L.; Baverel, G.; El Hage, M.; Nazaret, R.; Conjard-Duplany, A.; Ferrier, B.; Martin, G.; Legendre, A.; Desmots, S.; Lecomte, A.; Froment, P.; Habert, R.; Lemazurier, E.; Robinel, F.; Dupont, O.; Sanfins, E.; Dairou, J.; Chaffotte, A.F.; Busi, F.; Rodrigues Lima, F.; Dupret, J.M.; Mayati, A.; Le Ferrec, E.; Levoin, N.; Paris, H.; Uriac, Ph.; N'Diaye, M.; Lagadic-Gossmann, D.; Fardel, O.; Assemat, E.; Boublil, L.; Borot, M.C.; Marano, F.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Martiny, V.Y.; Moroy, G.; Badel, A.; Miteva, M.A.; Hussain, S.; Ferecatu, I.; Borot, C.; Andreau, K.; Baeza-Squiban, A.; Marano, F.; Boland, S.; Leroux, M.; Zucchini-Pascal, N.; Peyre, L.; Rahmani, R.; Buron, N.; Porcedou, M.; Fromenty, B.; Borgne-Sanchez, A.; Rogue, A.; Spire, C.; Claude, N.; Guillouzo, A.

    2010-01-01

    Prevention of possible noxious effects in relation with the exposure to one or several chemical, physical or biological agents present in our domestic or professional environment is one of today's big public health stakes. Another stake is the better assessment of the risks linked with the use of health-care products. The efficacy and predictiveness of toxicology studies are directly related to the combination of alternate complementary methods and animal experiments (obtaining data from different species and with different models: in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo). Despite important efforts, the toxicological evaluation remains perfectible. The proceedings of this 2010 congress of the French Society of cell pharmaco-toxicology deal with recent advances, both scientific and technological, in 'predictive toxicology'. Four main topics are approached: cell and organ models, 'omics', in silico modeling, and new technologies (imaging, cell ships, high-speed processing). Among the different presentations, 3 abstracts present some recent advances in imaging techniques applied to toxicology studies. These are: 1 - first uses in toxicology of TOF-SIMS mass spectroscopy imaging (O. Laprevote, Paris-Descartes Univ. (FR)); 2 - Small animal imaging, a tool for predictive toxicology (A. Le Pape, CNRS Orleans (FR)); 3 - uranium localization at cell level using SIMS imaging technique (C. Rouas et al., IRSN Fontenay-aux-Roses (FR)). (J.S.)

  2. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

  3. Predicting Future Conflict under REDD+ Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Silori

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available With the current complexity of issues facing forest and land management, the implementation of the REDD+ initiative comes with significant risks, including conflict. While the exact nature and shape of conflict in REDD+ implementation is difficult to pinpoint, this study aims to build a preliminary predictive framework to identify possible sources of impairment that may result in conflict over management of forests and natural resources. The framework was developed from an extensive literature review and was tested in three REDD+ pilot project sites in Nepal. The results indicate that most of the sources of impairment are present in all study sites, particularly issues relating to benefit sharing, which have been main drivers of conflict prior to REDD+. While we found that the application of the framework has been useful in the Nepalese context, there are some limitations in its scope and precision. Nonetheless, this study points to important implications with regards to REDD+ implementation and conflict management that can be useful for policy makers and practitioners involved in REDD+ strategy designs, as well as other areas of forest management involving outsiders and communities.

  4. Triad pattern algorithm for predicting strong promoter candidates in bacterial genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakanyan Vehary

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial promoters, which increase the efficiency of gene expression, differ from other promoters by several characteristics. This difference, not yet widely exploited in bioinformatics, looks promising for the development of relevant computational tools to search for strong promoters in bacterial genomes. Results We describe a new triad pattern algorithm that predicts strong promoter candidates in annotated bacterial genomes by matching specific patterns for the group I σ70 factors of Escherichia coli RNA polymerase. It detects promoter-specific motifs by consecutively matching three patterns, consisting of an UP-element, required for interaction with the α subunit, and then optimally-separated patterns of -35 and -10 boxes, required for interaction with the σ70 subunit of RNA polymerase. Analysis of 43 bacterial genomes revealed that the frequency of candidate sequences depends on the A+T content of the DNA under examination. The accuracy of in silico prediction was experimentally validated for the genome of a hyperthermophilic bacterium, Thermotoga maritima, by applying a cell-free expression assay using the predicted strong promoters. In this organism, the strong promoters govern genes for translation, energy metabolism, transport, cell movement, and other as-yet unidentified functions. Conclusion The triad pattern algorithm developed for predicting strong bacterial promoters is well suited for analyzing bacterial genomes with an A+T content of less than 62%. This computational tool opens new prospects for investigating global gene expression, and individual strong promoters in bacteria of medical and/or economic significance.

  5. Dual Motion GAN for Future-Flow Embedded Video Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Xiaodan; Lee, Lisa; Dai, Wei; Xing, Eric P.

    2017-01-01

    Future frame prediction in videos is a promising avenue for unsupervised video representation learning. Video frames are naturally generated by the inherent pixel flows from preceding frames based on the appearance and motion dynamics in the video. However, existing methods focus on directly hallucinating pixel values, resulting in blurry predictions. In this paper, we develop a dual motion Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) architecture, which learns to explicitly enforce future-frame predicti...

  6. Using Human Capital Planning to Predict Future Talent Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruse, Donald; Jansen, Karen

    2008-01-01

    Human capital planning is an important tool in predicting future talent needs and sustaining organizational excellence over the long term. This article examines the concept of human capital planning and outlines how institutions can use HCP to identify the type and number of talent needed both now and in the future, recognize and prioritize talent…

  7. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    OpenAIRE

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast ...

  8. arXiv Recent results and future of the NA61/SHINE strong interactions program

    CERN Document Server

    Lysakowski, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    NA61/SHINE is a fixed target experiment at the CERN Super-Proton- Synchrotron. The main goals of the experiment are to discover the critical point of strongly interacting matter and study the properties of the onset of deconfnement. In order to reach these goals the collaboration studies hadron production properties in nucleus-nucleus, proton-proton and proton-nucleus interactions. In this talk, recent results on particle production in p+p interactions, as well as Be+Be and Ar+Sc collisions in the SPS energy range are reviewed. The results are compared with available world data. The future of the NA61/SHINE scientifc program is also presented.

  9. Prediction of strong earthquake motions on rock surface using evolutionary process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kameda, H.; Sugito, M.

    1984-01-01

    Stochastic process models are developed for prediction of strong earthquake motions for engineering design purposes. Earthquake motions with nonstationary frequency content are modeled by using the concept of evolutionary processes. Discussion is focused on the earthquake motions on bed rocks which are important for construction of nuclear power plants in seismic regions. On this basis, two earthquake motion prediction models are developed, one (EMP-IB Model) for prediction with given magnitude and epicentral distance, and the other (EMP-IIB Model) to account for the successive fault ruptures and the site location relative to the fault of great earthquakes. (Author) [pt

  10. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  11. Prediction and discovery of extremely strong hydrodynamic instabilities due to a velocity jump: theory and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fridman, A M

    2008-01-01

    The theory and the experimental discovery of extremely strong hydrodynamic instabilities are described, viz. the Kelvin-Helmholtz, centrifugal, and superreflection instabilities. The discovery of the last two instabilities was predicted and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in real systems was revised by us. (reviews of topical problems)

  12. What Factors Predict Who Will Have a Strong Social Network Following a Stroke?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northcott, Sarah; Marshall, Jane; Hilari, Katerina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Measures of social networks assess the number and nature of a person's social contacts, and strongly predict health outcomes. We explored how social networks change following a stroke and analyzed concurrent and baseline predictors of social networks 6 months poststroke. Method: We conducted a prospective longitudinal observational study.…

  13. Risperidone and Venlafaxine Metabolic Ratios Strongly Predict a CYP2D6 Poor Metabolizing Genotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannheimer, Buster; Haslemo, Tore; Lindh, Jonatan D; Eliasson, Erik; Molden, Espen

    2016-02-01

    To investigate the predictive value of the risperidone and venlafaxine metabolic ratios and CYP2D6 genotype. The determination of risperidone, 9-hydroxyrisperidone, and venlafaxine, O-desmethylvenlafaxine, N-desmethylvenlafaxine and CYP2D6 genotype was performed in 425 and 491 patients, respectively. The receiver operator characteristic method and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve were used to illustrate the predictive value of risperidone metabolic ratio for the individual CYP2D6 genotype. To evaluate the proposed cutoff levels of >1 to identify individuals with a poor CYP2D6 genotype, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were calculated. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve to predict poor metabolizers for risperidone/9-hydroxyrisperidone and N-desmethylvenlafaxine/O-desmethylvenlafaxine ratios was 93% and 99%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (confidence interval) of a risperidone/9-hydroxyrisperidone ratio >1 to predict a CYP2D6 poor metabolizer genotype were 91% (76%-97%), 86% (83%-89%), 35% (26%-46%), and 99% (97%-100%), respectively. The corresponding measures for N-desmethylvenlafaxine/O-desmethylvenlafaxine were 93% (76%-97%), 87% (83%-89%), 40% (32%-51%), and 99% (98%-100%). Risperidone/9-hydroxyrisperidone and N-desmethylvenlafaxine/O-desmethylvenlafaxine metabolic ratios >1 strongly predict individuals with poor metabolizer genotype, which could guide psychotropic drug treatment to avoid adverse drug reactions and to increase their therapeutic efficacy in patients prescribed these drugs.

  14. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  15. Memory, Imagination, and Predicting the Future: A Common Brain Mechanism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullally, Sinéad L; Maguire, Eleanor A

    2014-06-01

    On the face of it, memory, imagination, and prediction seem to be distinct cognitive functions. However, metacognitive, cognitive, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging evidence is emerging that they are not, suggesting intimate links in their underlying processes. Here, we explore these empirical findings and the evolving theoretical frameworks that seek to explain how a common neural system supports our recollection of times past, imagination, and our attempts to predict the future. © The Author(s) 2013.

  16. Does magnetic resonance imaging predict future low back pain?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffens, D; Hancock, M J; Maher, C G

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has the potential to identify pathology responsible for low back pain (LBP). However, the importance of findings on MRI remains controversial. We aimed to systematically review whether MRI findings of the lumbar spine predict future LBP in different samples with a...

  17. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  18. geostatistical prediction of future volcanic eruption and risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    within the limits of any reasonable doubt that the interval for the next major eruption that will emit lava with a volume of ..... P e rc e n ta g e. S u rv iv o r. Fig. 11: Log empirical Survivor factor for Mount Cameroon. Volcano. GEOSTATISTICAL PREDICTION OF FUTURE VOLCANIC ..... Cox, D., and Lewis, P. A. W., 1966.

  19. Does musculoskeletal discomfort at work predict future musculoskeletal pain?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamberg - Reenen, H.H. van; Beek, A.J. van der; Blatter, B.; Grinten, M.P. van der; Mechelen, W. van; Bongers, P.M.

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate if peak or cumulative musculoskeletal discomfort may predict future low-back, neck or shoulder pain among symptom-free workers. At baseline, discomfort per body region was rated on a 10-point scale six times during a working day.

  20. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  1. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research

  2. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  3. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  4. Born knowing: tentacled snakes innately predict future prey behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth C Catania

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? METHODS AND FINDINGS: Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale--over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive.

  5. Born knowing: tentacled snakes innately predict future prey behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catania, Kenneth C

    2010-06-16

    Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale--over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive.

  6. Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catania, Kenneth C.

    2010-01-01

    Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

  7. Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

  8. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiogama, H; Stone, D; Emori, S; Takahashi, K; Mori, S; Maeda, A; Ishizaki, Y; Allen, M R

    2016-01-11

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  9. Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

  10. Evolving networks-Using past structure to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ke-ke; Yan, Wei-sheng; Small, Michael

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies on link prediction have focused on using common neighbors to predict the existence of links between pairs of nodes. More broadly, research into the structural properties of evolving temporal networks and temporal link prediction methods have recently attracted increasing attention. In this study, for the first time, we examine the use of links between a pair of nodes to predict their common neighbors and analyze the relationship between the weight and the structure in static networks, evolving networks, and in the corresponding randomized networks. We propose both new unweighted and weighted prediction methods and use six kinds of real networks to test our algorithms. In unweighted networks, we find that if a pair of nodes connect to each other in the current network, they will have a higher probability to connect common nodes both in the current and the future networks-and the probability will decrease with the increase of the number of neighbors. Furthermore, we find that the original networks have their particular structure and statistical characteristics which benefit link prediction. In weighted networks, the prediction algorithm performance of networks which are dominated by human factors decrease with the decrease of weight and are in general better in static networks. Furthermore, we find that geographical position and link weight both have significant influence on the transport network. Moreover, the evolving financial network has the lowest predictability. In addition, we find that the structure of non-social networks has more robustness than social networks. The structure of engineering networks has both best predictability and also robustness.

  11. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  12. Structural maturation and brain activity predict future working memory capacity during childhood development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullman, Henrik; Almeida, Rita; Klingberg, Torkel

    2014-01-29

    Human working memory capacity develops during childhood and is a strong predictor of future academic performance, in particular, achievements in mathematics and reading. Predicting working memory development is important for the early identification of children at risk for poor cognitive and academic development. Here we show that structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging data explain variance in children's working memory capacity 2 years later, which was unique variance in addition to that predicted using cognitive tests. While current working memory capacity correlated with frontoparietal cortical activity, the future capacity could be inferred from structure and activity in basal ganglia and thalamus. This gives a novel insight into the neural mechanisms of childhood development and supports the idea that neuroimaging can have a unique role in predicting children's cognitive development.

  13. Toward a Sustainable Future: The Role of Student Affairs in Creating Healthy Environments, Social Justice, and Strong Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ACPA College Student Educators International, 2008

    2008-01-01

    "Toward a Sustainable Future: The Role of Student Affairs in Creating Healthy Environments, Social Justice, and Strong Economies" is a call to action for college student educators, articulating the crucial role they play in the international sustainability movement. It contains valuable information about educating self, educating students, and…

  14. "I Have Strong Hopes for the Future": Time Orientations and Resilience Among Canadian Indigenous Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatala, Andrew R; Pearl, Tamara; Bird-Naytowhow, Kelley; Judge, Andrew; Sjoblom, Erynne; Liebenberg, Linda

    2017-07-01

    In this article, we demonstrate how concepts of time and the future inform processes of resilience among Indigenous adolescents within an urban Canadian context. This study employed a modified grounded theory methodology by conducting 38 qualitative interviews with 28 Indigenous youth (ages 15-25) over the course of 1 year. The analysis revealed complex processes of and navigations between moments of distress and strategies for resilience. The distressing contexts in which Indigenous youth often find themselves can impact the development of their concepts of time and limit their abilities to conceptualize a future. A future time orientation (FTO) emerged as central to processes of resilience and was supported by (a) nurturing a sense of belonging, (b) developing self-mastery, and (c) fostering cultural continuity.

  15. Self-Conscious Shyness: Growth during Toddlerhood, Strong Role of Genetics, and No Prediction from Fearful Shyness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggum-Wilkens, Natalie D; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Goldsmith, H Hill

    2015-01-01

    Fearful and self-conscious subtypes of shyness have received little attention in the empirical literature. Study aims included: 1) determining if fearful shyness predicted self-conscious shyness, 2) describing development of self-conscious shyness, and 3) examining genetic and environmental contributions to fearful and self-conscious shyness. Observed self-conscious shyness was examined at 19, 22, 25, and 28 months in same-sex twins (MZ = 102, DZ = 111, missing zygosity = 3 pairs). Self-conscious shyness increased across toddlerhood, but onset was earlier than predicted by theory. Fearful shyness (observed [6 and 12 months] and parents' reports [12 and 22 months]) was not predictive of self-conscious shyness. Independent genetic factors made strong contributions to parent-reported (but not observed) fearful shyness (additive genetic influence = .69 and .72 at 12 and 22 months, respectively) and self-conscious shyness (additive genetic influence = .90 for the growth model intercept). Results encourage future investigation of patterns of change and interrelations in shyness subtypes.

  16. Medicine is not science: guessing the future, predicting the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Clifford

    2014-12-01

    Irregularity limits human ability to know, understand and predict. A better understanding of irregularity may improve the reliability of knowledge. Irregularity and its consequences for knowledge are considered. Reliable predictive empirical knowledge of the physical world has always been obtained by observation of regularities, without needing science or theory. Prediction from observational knowledge can remain reliable despite some theories based on it proving false. A naïve theory of irregularity is outlined. Reducing irregularity and/or increasing regularity can increase the reliability of knowledge. Beyond long experience and specialization, improvements include implementing supporting knowledge systems of libraries of appropriately classified prior cases and clinical histories and education about expertise, intuition and professional judgement. A consequence of irregularity and complexity is that classical reductionist science cannot provide reliable predictions of the behaviour of complex systems found in nature, including of the human body. Expertise, expert judgement and their exercise appear overarching. Diagnosis involves predicting the past will recur in the current patient applying expertise and intuition from knowledge and experience of previous cases and probabilistic medical theory. Treatment decisions are an educated guess about the future (prognosis). Benefits of the improvements suggested here are likely in fields where paucity of feedback for practitioners limits development of reliable expert diagnostic intuition. Further analysis, definition and classification of irregularity is appropriate. Observing and recording irregularities are initial steps in developing irregularity theory to improve the reliability and extent of knowledge, albeit some forms of irregularity present inherent difficulties. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Potential of future seismogenesis in Hebei Province (NE China) due to stress interactions between strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Jin, Xueshen; Liu, Zhihui; Paradisopoulou, Parthena; He, Zhang

    2013-10-01

    Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years.

  18. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematical performance among children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Chloe T; Bunge, Silvia A; Briones Chiongbian, Victoria; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21years across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's previous cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; age, vocabulary, and spatial skills were not significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary school and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction of future dispute concerning nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-04-01

    This investigation is the third research on the public acceptance of nuclear power generation by the National Congress on Social Economics. In this study, how the energy dispute including that concerning nuclear power generation will develop in 1980s and 1990s, how the form of dispute and the point of controversy will change, were predicted. Though the maintenance of the concord of groups strongly regulates the behavior of people, recently they have become to exercise individual rights frequently. The transition to the society of dispute is the natural result of the modernization of society and the increase of richness. The proper prediction of social problems and the planning and execution of proper countermeasures are very important. The background, objective, basic viewpoint, range and procedure of this investigation, the change of social dispute, the history of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the basic viewpoint in the prediction of the dispute concerning nuclear power generation, the social situation in 1980s, the prediction and avoidance of the dispute in view of social and energy situations, and the fundamental strategy for seeking a clue to the solution in 1980s and 1990s are described. The establishment of neutral mediation organs and the flexible technologies of nuclear reactors are necessary. (Kako, I.)

  20. Phylogeny Predicts Future Habitat Shifts Due to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. Methodology We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Conclusions Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8–77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change. PMID:24892737

  1. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  2. Prediction and design of first super-strong liquid-crystalline polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowell, F.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the details of the theoretical prediction and design (atom by atom, bond by bond) of the molecule chemical structures of the first candidate super-strong liquid-crystalline polymers (SS LCPs). These LCPs are the first LCPs designed to have good compressive strengths, as well as to have tensile strengths and tensile moduli significantly larger than those of existing strong LCPs (such as Kevlar). The key feature of this new class of LCPs is that the exceptional strength is three dimensional on a microscopic, molecular level (thus, on a macroscopic level), in contrast to present LCPs (such as Kevlar) with their one-dimensional exceptional strength. These SS LCPs also have some solubility and processing advantages over existing strong LCPs. These SS LCPs are specially-designed combined LCPs such that the side chains of a molecule interdigitate with the side chains of other molecules. This paper also presents other essential general and specific features required for SS LCPs. Considerations in the design of SS LCPs include the spacing distance between side chains along the backbone, the need for rigid sections in the backbone and side chains, the degree of polymerization, the length of the side chains, the regularity of spacing of the side chains along the backbone, the interdigitation of side chains in submolecular strips, the packing of the side chains on one or two sides of the backbone, the symmetry of the side chains, the points of attachment of the side chains to the backbone, the flexibility and size of the chemical group connecting each side chain to the backbone, the effect of semiflexible sections in the backbone and side chains, and the choice of types of dipolar and/or hydrogen bonding forces in the backbones and side chains for easy alignment

  3. Tryptophan Predicts the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tianlu; Zheng, Xiaojiao; Ma, Xiaojing; Bao, Yuqian; Ni, Yan; Hu, Cheng; Rajani, Cynthia; Huang, Fengjie; Zhao, Aihua; Jia, Weiping; Jia, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Recently, 5 amino acids were identified and verified as important metabolites highly associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. This report aims to assess the association of tryptophan with the development of T2D and to evaluate its performance with existing amino acid markers. A total of 213 participants selected from a ten-year longitudinal Shanghai Diabetes Study (SHDS) were examined in two ways: 1) 51 subjects who developed diabetes and 162 individuals who remained metabolically healthy in 10 years; 2) the same 51 future diabetes and 23 strictly matched ones selected from the 162 healthy individuals. Baseline fasting serum tryptophan concentrations were quantitatively measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography triple quadruple mass spectrometry. First, serum tryptophan level was found significantly higher in future T2D and was positively and independently associated with diabetes onset risk. Patients with higher tryptophan level tended to present higher degree of insulin resistance and secretion, triglyceride and blood pressure. Second, the prediction potential of tryptophan is non-inferior to the 5 existing amino acids. The predictive performance of the combined score improved after taking tryptophan into account. Our findings unveiled the potential of tryptophan as a new marker associated with diabetes risk in Chinese populations. The addition of tryptophan provided complementary value to the existing amino acid predictors.

  4. Proposal of stack Effect technology for predicted future years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teddy Badai Samodra, FX; Adi Indrawan, Iwan

    2017-12-01

    Recently, stack effect is a general problem solver in providing vertical ventilation for urban environmental issues. However, study on resilient technology of stack effect for future years as predicted by climate trend should be conducted. Therefore, this research proposes a design of new technology on operable and adaptable vertical ventilation to the environmental change. The research method is conducted by comprehensive simulation of Ecotect Analysis, ANSYS Fluent and Matlab. Urban environment of Surabaya, as the research location, is the representative of tropical region. The results showed that the stack effect height and area could be modified instantly adjusting the environmental condition time by time in the future years. With 1.8 m of stack width, the proposed technology could capture 40 m3 of vertical air flow which is useful for physiological cooling and its dimension could be modified depending on the environmental condition. By providing resilient technology, predictable and sustainable ventilation method is offered to anticipate an unpredicted global warming and environmental change.

  5. Predicting the future development of depression or PTSD after injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Therese S; Ruzek, Josef; Ackerson, Theimann; Wiebe, Douglas J; Winston, Flaura; Kassam-Adams, Nancy

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to develop a predictive screener that when given soon after injury will accurately differentiate those who will later develop depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from those who will not. This study used a prospective, longitudinal cohort design. Subjects were randomly selected from all injured patients in the emergency department; the majority was assessed within 1 week postinjury with a short predictive screener, followed with in-person interviews after 3 and 6 months to determine the emergence of depression or PTSD within 6 months after injury. A total of 192 completed a risk factor survey at baseline; 165 were assessed over 6 months. Twenty-six subjects [15.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.2-21.3] were diagnosed with depression, four (2.4%, 95% CI 0.7-5.9) with PTSD and one with both. The final eight-item predictive screener was derived; optimal cutoff scores were ≥2 (of 4) depression risk items and ≥3 (of 5) PTSD risk items. The final screener demonstrated excellent sensitivity and moderate specificity both for clinically significant symptoms and for the diagnoses of depression and PTSD. A simple screener that can help identify those patients at highest risk for future development of PTSD and depression postinjury allows the judicious allocation of costly mental health resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Predictability of future attacks by migraineurs: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X Henry; Golden, Wendy; Bolge, Susan C; Katic, Bozena; Chen, Ya-Ting; Wagner, Samuel; Cady, Roger

    2010-09-01

    To determine the predictability of future migraine attacks and to describe the effect of migraine on daily life during and between migraine attacks. Migraine is associated with substantial economic and humanistic burden. There is growing evidence that early intervention with triptans results in better treatment outcomes. However, this is dependent on a patient's preparedness for an attack including having abortive medications readily accessible at headache onset. Physician-diagnosed adult migraine sufferers, who treat with prescription or over-the-counter medications, completed 2 self-reported, Internet-based questionnaires, administered at baseline and following the resolution of the next migraine attack. The baseline questionnaire included the Migraine Disability Assessment questionnaire (MIDAS), questions about experiences on days between attacks, predictions of the date, time of day (5 time windows), and sufferer's location (4 places) at the start of their next migraine. At follow-up, information was collected in the similar fashion about the date, time of day, and sufferer's location at the start of their most recent migraine. A total of 1519 migraine sufferers completed the baseline questionnaire and 877 (57.7%) completed the follow-up. At baseline, 58.7% experienced moderate to severe disability from headache, based on MIDAS. Only 4.0% were able to predict the exact date of their next migraine; 21.24% predicted next migraine within 3 days. Larger proportions (46.6%) were able to accurately predict time of day or location (70.7%) of their next migraine. In the past 3 months, 92.6% reported that they were forced to change daily plans because of migraine. Because of fear of getting a migraine, 20.2% had avoided and 27.0% had changed a work commitment, and 27.3% had avoided and 28.2% had changed social plans. Migraine sufferers are generally unable to predict onset of the next migraine. Lack of predictability heightens the importance of education and

  7. Future recovery of acidified lakes in southern Norway predicted by the MAGIC model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The acidification model MAGIC was used to predict recovery of small lakes in southernmost Norway to future reduction of acid deposition. A set of 60 small headwater lakes was sampled annually from either 1986 (35 lakes or 1995 (25 lakes. Future acid deposition was assumed to follow implementation of current agreed legislation, including the Gothenburg protocol. Three scenarios of future N retention were used. Calibration of the sites to the observed time trends (1990–1999 as well as to one point in time considerably increased the robustness of the predictions. The modelled decline in SO4* concentrations in the lakes over the period 1986–2001 matched the observed decline closely. This strongly suggests that soil processes such as SO4 adsorption/desorption and S reduction/oxidation do not delay the response of runoff by more than a few years. The slope of time trends in ANC over the period of observations was less steep than that observed, perhaps because the entire soil column does not interact actively with the soilwater that emerges as runoff. The lakes showed widely differing time trends in NO3 concentrations over the period 1986–2000. The observed trends were not simulated by any of the three N scenarios. A model based on the C/N ratio in soil was insufficient to account for N retention and leaching at these sites. The large differences in modelled NO3, however, produced only minor differences in ANC between the three scenarios. In the year 2050, the difference was only about 5 μeq l-1. Future climate change entailing warming and increased precipitation could also increase NO3 loss to surface waters. SO4* concentrations in the lakes were predicted to decrease in parallel with the future decreases in S deposition. Fully 80% of the expected decline to year 2025, however, had already occurred by the year 2000. Similarly, ANC concentrations were predicted to increase in the future, but again about 67% of the expected change has already

  8. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Umeda, Y.; Iwata, T.; Kasahara, K.

    2003-12-01

    Introduction: After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government increased its focus and funding of earthquake hazards evaluation, studies of man-made structures integrity, and emergency response planning in the major urban centers. A new agency, the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture (MEXT) has started a five-year program titled as Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas (abbreviated to Dai-dai-toku in Japanese) since 2002. The project includes four programs: I. Regional characterization of the crust in metropolitan areas for prediction of strong ground motion. II. Significant improvement of seismic performance of structure. III. Advanced disaster management system. IV. Investigation of earthquake disaster mitigation research results. We will present the results from the first program conducted in 2002 and 2003. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion: A long-term goal is to produce map of reliable estimations of strong ground motion. This requires accurate determination of ground motion response, which includes a source process, an effect of propagation path, and near surface response. The new five-year project was aimed to characterize the "source" and "propagation path" in the Kanto (Tokyo) region and Kinki (Osaka) region. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake is one of the important targets to be addressed in the project. The proximity of the Pacific and Philippine Sea subducting plates requires study of the relationship between earthquakes and regional tectonics. This project focuses on identification and geometry of: 1) Source faults, 2) Subducting plates and mega-thrust faults, 3) Crustal structure, 4) Seismogenic zone, 5) Sedimentary basins, 6) 3D velocity properties We have conducted a series of seismic reflection and refraction experiment in the Kanto region. In 2002 we have completed to deploy seismic profiling lines in the Boso peninsula (112 km) and the

  9. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  10. Developing neuronal networks: self-organized criticality predicts the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Jiangbo; Gong, Hui; Li, Xiangning; Luo, Qingming

    2013-01-01

    Self-organized criticality emerged in neural activity is one of the key concepts to describe the formation and the function of developing neuronal networks. The relationship between critical dynamics and neural development is both theoretically and experimentally appealing. However, whereas it is well-known that cortical networks exhibit a rich repertoire of activity patterns at different stages during in vitro maturation, dynamical activity patterns through the entire neural development still remains unclear. Here we show that a series of metastable network states emerged in the developing and "aging" process of hippocampal networks cultured from dissociated rat neurons. The unidirectional sequence of state transitions could be only observed in networks showing power-law scaling of distributed neuronal avalanches. Our data suggest that self-organized criticality may guide spontaneous activity into a sequential succession of homeostatically-regulated transient patterns during development, which may help to predict the tendency of neural development at early ages in the future.

  11. A variant in the KCNQ1 gene predicts future type 2 diabetes and mediates impaired insulin secretion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Elisabet; Isomaa, Bo; Tuomi, Tiinamaija

    2009-01-01

    Two independent genome-wide association studies for type 2 diabetes in Japanese subjects have recently identified common variants in the KCNQ1 gene that are strongly associated with type 2 diabetes. Here we studied whether a common variant in KCNQ1 would influence BMI as well as insulin secretion...... and action and predict future type 2 diabetes in subjects from Sweden and Finland....

  12. Through a glass darkly: predicting the future of radiation oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Lester J.

    1995-01-01

    To position ourselves professionally for the inevitable transition to managed care demands serious self-appraisal. Like most procedural medical specialties, radiation oncology is currently ill prepared for a capitated system of payment. To prosper under capitation, we need to increase the utility of radiation therapy per unit cost. This can be achieved by making the following adaptive responses: (a) we must ensure that the needs of medical practice drive the use of costly technology and not vice versa; (b) we must subordinate firmly held beliefs and prejudices to solid scientific data and be prepared to modify our practice when more cost-effective alternatives exist; and (c) we must be increasingly conscious of outcome, not process, in deciding among treatment options; and (d) we must acknowledge the need to prioritize the use of finite resources so that the maximum effort is expended on those who have the most to gain from treatment. These changes will permit us to develop guidelines for appropriate use of radiation therapy, and to demonstrate the excellent value of the service we can provide, which is the ultimate key to success. Though the future may at times seem bleak, we can shape it with our actions: the best way to predict the future is to create it

  13. WHY WE CANNOT PREDICT STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE EARTH’S CRUST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif L. Gufeld

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade, earthquake disasters caused multiple fatalities and significant economic losses and challenged the modern civilization. The wellknown achievements and growing power of civilization are backstrapped when facing the Nature. The question arises, what hinders solving a problem of earthquake prediction, while longterm and continuous seismic monitoring systems are in place in many regions of the world. For instance, there was no forecast of the Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, despite the fact that monitoring conditions for its prediction were unique. Its focal zone was 100–200 km away from the monitoring network installed in the area of permanent seismic hazard, which is subject to nonstop and longterm seismic monitoring. Lesson should be learned from our common fiasco in forecasting, taking into account research results obtained during the past 50–60 years. It is now evident that we failed to identify precursors of the earthquakes. Prior to the earthquake occurrence, the observed local anomalies of various fields reflected other processes that were mistakenly viewed as processes of preparation for largescale faulting. For many years, geotectonic situations were analyzed on the basis of the physics of destruction of laboratory specimens, which was applied to the lithospheric conditions. Many researchers realize that such an approach is inaccurate. Nonetheless, persistent attempts are being undertaken with application of modern computation to detect anomalies of various fields, which may be interpreted as earthquake precursors. In our opinion, such illusory intentions were smashed by the Great Japan Earthquake (Figure 6. It is also obvious that sufficient attention has not been given yet to fundamental studies of seismic processes.This review presents the authors’ opinion concerning the origin of the seismic process and strong earthquakes, being part of the process. The authors realize that a wide discussion is

  14. Predicting ionospheric scintillation: Recent advancements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Currie, J. L.; Terkildsen, M.; Bouya, Z.; Parkinson, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Society greatly benefits from space-based infrastructure and technology. For example, signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are used across a wide range of industrial sectors; including aviation, mining, agriculture and finance. Current trends indicate that the use of these space-based technologies is likely to increase over the coming decades as the global economy becomes more technology-dependent. Space weather represents a key vulnerability to space-based technology, both in terms of the space environment effects on satellite infrastructure and the influence of the ionosphere on the radio signals used for satellite communications. In recent decades, the impact of the ionosphere on GNSS signals has re-ignited research interest into the equatorial ionosphere, particularly towards understanding Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs are a dominant source of nighttime plasma irregularities in the low-latitude ionosphere, which can cause severe scintillation on GNSS signals and subsequent degradation on GNSS product quality. Currently, ionospheric scintillation event forecasts are not being routinely released by any space weather prediction agency around the world, but this is likely to change in the near future. In this contribution, an overview of recent efforts to develop a global ionospheric scintillation prediction capability within Australia will be given. The challenges in understanding user requirements for ionospheric scintillation predictions will be discussed. Next, the use of ground- and space-based datasets for the purpose of near-real time ionospheric scintillation monitoring will be explored. Finally, some modeling that has shown significant promise in transitioning towards an operational ionospheric scintillation forecasting system will be discussed.

  15. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.

  16. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  17. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

    2017-09-01

    Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

  18. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents’ Future Affective Experience during Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M.; Levine, Linda J.; Schneider, Margaret

    2018-01-01

    Purpose Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents’ feelings during exercise. Method During the first semester of the school year, we assessed sixth grade students’ (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test, and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the second semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Results Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise, and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. Conclusion These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences. PMID:28494196

  19. Prediction of Mymensingh Town Future Expansion Using Space Syntax

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Alam

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban space changes according to different space use with the passage of time, as seen in land use, location, and land value distribution. The paper intends to analyze the change of integration core related to the growth of commercial land use through different time periods. Two phases of Commercial land-use pattern is studied. The phases are i 1974, ii 2013. The entire spatial structure of the commercial land use of Mymensingh reacts to the entire city system, particularly the road network pattern. In this context, this study aims to identify the influence spatial configuration exerts on the location of different types of commercial activity in terms of land use. The results of this study will help to interpret and predict the future commercial land use related to its road network. In this paper the process was conducted in the following steps: Step-01: A field survey was conducted to collect data regarding locations of commercial activity,Step-02: Land-use maps of two phases were collected to analyze the relation between commercial activity and road network,Step-03: Space syntax theory was applied to simulate the data to analyze the relationship and Step-04: Proposition. 

  20. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Without aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting the current and future behavior of monsoons.

  1. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  2. Departures from predicted type II behavior in dirty strong-coupling superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J.C.; Neighbor, J.E.; Shiffman, C.A.

    1976-01-01

    Calorimetric measurements of the Ginsburg-Landau parameters for Pb-Sn and Pb-Bi alloys show good agreement with the calculations of Rainer and Bergmann for kappa 1 (t)/kappa 1 (1). However, the calculations of Rainer and Usadel for kappa 2 (t)/kappa 2 (1) substantially underestimate the enhancements due to strong-coupling. (Auth.)

  3. Obituaries and predictions: A sociological perspective on the future ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Religion is a social phenomenon. Society and, therefore, religion will continue to exist as long as human beings exist. This article explores this syllogism, by analysing two 19th-century social theories on the future of religion. Weber was not positive as to the future of religion and foresaw that religion would die out at the ...

  4. Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

    2017-01-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

  5. Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgane Barbet-Massin

    Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic

  6. Serum MHPG Strongly Predicts Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease in Behaviorally Characterized Subjects with Down Syndrome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, Alain D.; Coppus, Antonia M. W.; Vermeiren, Yannick; Aerts, Tony; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Kremer, Berry P.; Naude, Pieter J. W.; Van Dam, Debby; De Deyn, Peter P.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Down syndrome (DS) is the most prevalent genetic cause of intellectual disability. Early-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) frequently develops in DS and is characterized by progressive memory loss and behavioral and psychological signs and symptoms of dementia (BPSD). Predicting and

  7. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  8. Strong homing does not predict high site fidelity in juvenile reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streit, Robert P.; Bellwood, David R.

    2018-03-01

    After being displaced, juvenile reef fishes are able to return home over large distances. This strong homing behaviour is extraordinary and may allow insights into the longer-term spatial ecology of fish communities. For example, it appears intuitive that strong homing behaviour should be indicative of long-term site fidelity. However, this connection has rarely been tested. We quantified the site fidelity of juvenile fishes of four species after returning home following displacement. Two species, parrotfishes and Pomacentrus moluccensis, showed significantly reduced site fidelity after returning home. On average, they disappeared from their home sites almost 3 d earlier than expected. Mortality or competitive exclusion does not seem to be the main reasons for their disappearance. Rather, we suggest an increased propensity to relocate after encountering alternative reef locations while homing. It appears that some juvenile fishes may have a higher innate spatial flexibility than their strict homing drive suggests.

  9. Predicting future biomass yield inMiscanthususing the carbohydrate metabolic profile as a biomarker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddison, Anne L; Camargo-Rodriguez, Anyela; Scott, Ian M; Jones, Charlotte M; Elias, Dafydd M O; Hawkins, Sarah; Massey, Alice; Clifton-Brown, John; McNamara, Niall P; Donnison, Iain S; Purdy, Sarah J

    2017-07-01

    In perennial energy crop breeding programmes, it can take several years before a mature yield is reached when potential new varieties can be scored. Modern plant breeding technologies have focussed on molecular markers, but for many crop species, this technology is unavailable. Therefore, prematurity predictors of harvestable yield would accelerate the release of new varieties. Metabolic biomarkers are routinely used in medicine, but they have been largely overlooked as predictive tools in plant science. We aimed to identify biomarkers of productivity in the bioenergy crop, Miscanthus, that could be used prognostically to predict future yields. This study identified a metabolic profile reflecting productivity in Miscanthus by correlating the summer carbohydrate composition of multiple genotypes with final yield 6 months later. Consistent and strong, significant correlations were observed between carbohydrate metrics and biomass traits at two separate field sites over 2 years. Machine-learning feature selection was used to optimize carbohydrate metrics for support vector regression models, which were able to predict interyear biomass traits with a correlation ( R ) of >0.67 between predicted and actual values. To identify a causal basis for the relationships between the glycome profile and biomass, a 13 C-labelling experiment compared carbohydrate partitioning between high- and low-yielding genotypes. A lower yielding and slower growing genotype partitioned a greater percentage of the 13 C pulse into starch compared to a faster growing genotype where a greater percentage was located in the structural biomass. These results supported a link between plant performance and carbon flow through two rival pathways (starch vs. sucrose), with higher yielding plants exhibiting greater partitioning into structural biomass, via sucrose metabolism, rather than starch. Our results demonstrate that the plant metabolome can be used prognostically to anticipate future yields and

  10. Proposed studies of strongly coupled plasmas at the future FAIR and LHC facilities the HEDgeHOB collaboration

    CERN Document Server

    Tahir, N A; Shutov, A; Udrea, S; Deutsch, C; Fortov, V E; Gryaznov, V; Hoffmann, Dieter H H; Jacobi, J; Kain, V; Kuster, M; Ni, P; Piriz, A R; Schmidt, R; Spiller, P; Varentsov, D; Zioutas, K

    2006-01-01

    Detailed theoretical studies have shown that intense heavy-ion beams that will be generated at the future Facility for Antiprotons and Ion Research (FAIR) (Henning 2004 Nucl. Instrum. Methods B 214 211) at Darmstadt will be a very efficient tool to create high-energy-density (HED) states in matter including strongly coupled plasmas. In this paper we show, with the help of two-dimensional numerical simulations, the interesting physical states that can be achieved considering different beam intensities using zinc as a test material. Another very interesting experiment that can be performed using the intense heavy-ion beam at FAIR will be generation of low-entropy compression of a test material such as hydrogen that is enclosed in a cylindrical shell of a high-Z material such as lead or gold. In such an experiment, one can study the problem of hydrogen metallization and the interiors of giant planets. Moreover, we discuss an interesting method to diagnose the HED matter that is at the centre of the Sun. We have ...

  11. Proposed studies of strongly coupled plasmas at the future FAIR and LHC facilities: the HEDgeHOB collaboration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahir, N A [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Lomonosov, I V [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Shutov, A [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Udrea, S [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Deutsch, C [LPGP, Universite Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay (France); Fortov, V E [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Gryaznov, V [Institute for Problems of Chemical Physics Research, Chernogolovka (Russian Federation); Hoffmann, D H H [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Jacobi, J [Institut fuer Angewandte Physik, Universitaet Frankfurt, 60438 Frankfurt (Germany); Kain, V [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Kuster, M [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Ni, P [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Piriz, A R [ETSI Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Schmidt, R [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Spiller, P [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany); Varentsov, D [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt, 64289 Darmstadt (Germany); Zioutas, K [CERN, 1211 Geneva (Switzerland)

    2006-04-28

    Detailed theoretical studies have shown that intense heavy-ion beams that will be generated at the future Facility for Antiprotons and Ion Research (FAIR) (Henning 2004 Nucl. Instrum. Methods B 214 211) at Darmstadt will be a very efficient tool to create high-energy-density (HED) states in matter including strongly coupled plasmas. In this paper we show, with the help of two-dimensional numerical simulations, the interesting physical states that can be achieved considering different beam intensities using zinc as a test material. Another very interesting experiment that can be performed using the intense heavy-ion beam at FAIR will be generation of low-entropy compression of a test material such as hydrogen that is enclosed in a cylindrical shell of a high-Z material such as lead or gold. In such an experiment, one can study the problem of hydrogen metallization and the interiors of giant planets. Moreover, we discuss an interesting method to diagnose the HED matter that is at the centre of the Sun. We have also carried out simulations to study the damage caused by the full impact of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) beam on a superconducting magnet. An interesting outcome of this study is that the LHC beam can induce HED states in matter.

  12. Predicting past and future diameter growth for trees in the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Westfall

    2006-01-01

    Tree diameter growth models are widely used in forestry applications, often to predict tree size at a future point in time. Also, there are instances where projections of past diameters are needed. A relative diameter growth model was developed to allow prediction of both future and past growth rates. Coefficients were estimated for 15 species groups that cover most...

  13. Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vries, A; Feleke, S

    2008-12-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

  14. Future Time Perspective: Adolescents' Predictions of Their Interpersonal Lives in the Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinn, Lynn M.; Pike, Gary

    1989-01-01

    Investigated adolescent future time perspective in adolescents (N=125) aged 15 to 20 years. Found adolescents did not perceive divorce in their future although periods of singlehood, widowhood, and nuclear family life were perceived as extremely likely, particularly among female adolescents. (Author/ABL)

  15. Brighter future predicted at nuclear meetings in Chicago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, H.

    1993-01-01

    This article discusses the future of nuclear power in the United States and the rest of the world. It is a summary of a meeting of the American Nuclear Society/European Nuclear Society in Chicago. Some topics discussed include advanced reactor design, public relations, and nuclear safety

  16. Does muscle strength predict future musculoskeletal disorders and sickness absence?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, A; Sell, L; Hansen, J V

    2012-01-01

    High muscle strength is considered relevant for preventing musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence. However, prospective studies on the association between muscle strength and future musculoskeletal disorders and long-term sickness absence are few and show contrasting results....

  17. Diabetic Retinopathy Is Strongly Predictive of Cardiovascular Autonomic Neuropathy in Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chih-Cheng; Lee, Jong-Jer; Lin, Tsu-Kung; Tsai, Nai-Wen; Huang, Chi-Ren; Chen, Shu-Fang; Lu, Cheng-Hsien; Liu, Rue-Tsuan

    2016-01-01

    A well-established, comprehensive, and simple test battery was used here to re-evaluate risk factors for cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (CAN) in type 2 diabetes. One hundred and seventy-four patients with type 2 diabetes were evaluated through the methods of deep breathing and Valsalva maneuver for correlation with factors that might influence the presence and severity of CAN. The Composite Autonomic Scoring Scale (CASS) was used to grade the severity of autonomic impairment, and CAN was defined as a CASS score ≥2. Results showed that nephropathy, duration of diabetes, blood pressure, uric acid, and the presence of retinopathy and metabolic syndrome significantly correlated with the CASS score. Age may not be a risk factor for diabetic CAN. However, the effects of diabetes on CAN are more prominent in younger patients than in older ones. Diabetic retinopathy is the most significant risk factor predictive of the presence of CAN in patients with type 2 diabetes.

  18. Predicting the biological variability of environmental rhythms: weak or strong anticipation for sensorimotor synchronization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre, Kjerstin; Varlet, Manuel; Marmelat, Vivien

    2013-12-01

    The internal processes involved in synchronizing our movements with environmental stimuli have traditionally been addressed using regular metronomic sequences. Regarding real-life environments, however, biological rhythms are known to have intrinsic variability, ubiquitously characterized as fractal long-range correlations. In our research we thus investigate to what extent the synchronization processes drawn from regular metronome paradigms can be generalized to other (biologically) variable rhythms. Participants performed synchronized finger tapping under five conditions of long-range and/or short-range correlated, randomly variable, and regular auditory sequences. Combining experimental data analysis and numerical simulation, we found that synchronizing with biologically variable rhythms involves the same internal processes as with other variable rhythms (whether totally random or comprising lawful regularities), but different from those involved with a regular metronome. This challenges both the generalizability of conclusions drawn from regular-metronome paradigms, and recent research assuming that biologically variable rhythms may trigger specific strong anticipatory processes to achieve synchronization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Acute post cessation smoking. A strong predictive factor for metabolic syndrome among adult Saudis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AlDaghri, Nasser M.

    2009-01-01

    To determine the influence of tobacco exposure in the development of metabolic syndrome (MS) in the adult Saudi population. Six hundred and sixty-four adults (305 males and 359 females) aged 25-70 years were included in this cross-sectional study conducted at the King Abdul Aziz University Hospital, between June 2006 and May 2007. We classified the participants into non-smokers, smokers, and ex-smokers (defined as complete cessation for 1-2 years). All subjects were screened for the presence of MS using the modified American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and World Health Organization (WHO) definitions. Metabolic syndrome was highest among ex-smokers regardless of definition used. Relative risk for ex-smokers (95% CI: 2.23, 1.06-4.73) was more than twice in harboring MS as compared to non-smokers (95% CI: 2.78, 1.57-4.92) (p=0.009). Acute post-cessation smoking is a strong predictor for MS among male and female Arabs. Smoking cessation programs should include a disciplined lifestyle and dietary intervention to counteract the MS-augmenting side-effect of smoking cessation. (author)

  20. Trait Impressions as Heuristics for Predicting Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Leonard S.

    1996-01-01

    The dispositionist bias manifests itself when behavior is overattributed to dispositions, and when contextual factors are underused when predicting behavior. Psychological processes underlying the former bias have been most thoroughly examined. Three studies support the hypothesis that trait implications of past behavior function as heuristics…

  1. Predicting Low Back Pain Outcomes: Suggestions for Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissoneault, Jeff; Mundt, Jennifer; Robinson, Michael; George, Steven Z

    2017-09-01

    Chronic low back pain (LBP) is a common and costly musculoskeletal pain condition, and effective treatment of LBP represents a significant goal of physical therapists. Establishing a targeted track of treatment for patients with LBP at high risk for chronicity that is focused on modifiable prognostic factors could have significant personal and societal benefit. Such an approach would require that clinicians accurately predict the patients who are at an elevated risk of developing chronic LBP in the early stages of the condition. In this Viewpoint, we consider the strengths and limitations of existing literature and propose suggestions that may lead to the development of parsimonious, cost-effective, and accurate predictive models of LBP chronicity. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(9):588-592. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.0607.

  2. Adolescent attachment insecurity and parasympathetic functioning predict future loss adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagundes, Christopher P; Diamond, Lisa M; Allen, Kendrick P

    2012-06-01

    Losing a close relationship is highly stressful and a robust predictor of major depression in adolescents. The current study examined relationships between attachment insecurity, parasympathetic nervous system activity, indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and adolescent adjustment to the loss of a close social partner. Adolescents with more attachment anxiety to their mother at age 14 were more likely to report poorer adjustment to a subsequent loss than adolescents with less attachment anxiety. Attachment avoidance interacted with stress-induced changes in RSA to predict loss adjustment. Among adolescents with higher RSA in response to the stressor, those with more attachment avoidance reported better loss adjustment, whereas among adolescents with lower RSA in response to the stressor, those with more attachment avoidance reported poorer loss adjustment. In sum, the combination of attachment insecurity and stress-induced changes in RSA predicted how well adolescents adjusted to a loss.

  3. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  4. Predicting the Uncertain Future of Aptamer-Based Diagnostics and Therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, John G

    2015-04-16

    Despite the great promise of nucleic acid aptamers in the areas of diagnostics and therapeutics for their facile in vitro development, lack of immunogenicity and other desirable properties, few truly successful aptamer-based products exist in the clinical or other markets. Core reasons for these commercial deficiencies probably stem from industrial commitment to antibodies including a huge financial investment in humanized monoclonal antibodies and a general ignorance about aptamers and their performance among the research and development community. Given the early failures of some strong commercial efforts to gain government approval and bring aptamer-based products to market, it may seem that aptamers are doomed to take a backseat to antibodies forever. However, the key advantages of aptamers over antibodies coupled with niche market needs that only aptamers can fill and more recent published data still point to a bright commercial future for aptamers in areas such as infectious disease and cancer diagnostics and therapeutics. As more researchers and entrepreneurs become familiar with aptamers, it seems inevitable that aptamers will at least be considered for expanded roles in diagnostics and therapeutics. This review also examines new aptamer modifications and attempts to predict new aptamer applications that could revolutionize biomedical technology in the future and lead to marketed products.

  5. Predicting the future and learning from the past

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abell, Anne Færge

    to why and how the outcome of the evaluation makes it worth it in the end. It is found in the study that the sample of IT projects studied is quite characteristic for an internal IT department functioning as support to the primary value chain in a production company: the projects are on average of low...... between the organization’s overall strategy and the projects is weak. The two frameworks were additionally used in combination to illustrate how it is possible to predict the likely success of new projects based on the sample as well as test hypotheses about the organization’s project management practice....

  6. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-07-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P 4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  7. Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

  8. Predicting future forests: Understanding diverse phenological responses within a community and functional trait framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E. M.; Flynn, D. F. B.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many plants have shifted their leafing and flowering earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. Yet alongside this increasing interest in phenology, important issues remain unanswered: responses to warming for species at the same site or in the same genus vary often by weeks or more and the explanatory power of phenology for performance and invasions when analyzed across diverse datasets remains low. We propose progress can come from explicitly considering phenology within a community context and as a critical plant trait correlated with other major plant functional traits. Here, we lay out a framework for our proposal: specifically we review how we expect phenology and phenological cues of different species within a community to vary and what other functional traits are predicted to co-vary with phenological traits. Much research currently suggests phenology is a critical functional trait that is shaped strongly by the environment. Plants are expected to adjust their phenologies to avoid periods of high abiotic risk and/or high competition. Thus we may expect phenology to correlate strongly to other traits involved in mitigating risk and high competition. Results from recent meta-analyses as well as experimental and observational research from 28 species in northeastern North American temperate forests suggest that species within a community show the predicted diversified set of phenological cues. We review early work on links to other functional traits and in closing review how these correlations may in turn determine the diversity of phenological responses observed for

  9. Procedure to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey building under strong ground motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hibino, Y.; Ichinose, T.; Costa, J.L.D.

    2009-01-01

    A procedure is presented to predict the storey where plastic drift dominates in two-storey buildings under strong ground motion. The procedure utilizes the yield strength and the mass of each storey as well as the peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on two different assumptions: (1......) the seismic force distribution is of inverted triangular form and (2) the rigid-plastic model represents the system. The first and the second assumptions, respectively, lead to lower and upper estimates of the base shear coefficient under which the drift of the first storey exceeds that of the second storey...

  10. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  11. Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Morin

    Full Text Available Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems.

  12. Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

    2017-10-01

    College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Discovery Mondays - Simulations: using maths to predict the future

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    CERN's physicists often play with dice, using chance to simulate particle collisions and the tracks they will leave behind them in the detectors. Random number generators and various kinds of probability methods are just some of the mathematics tools physicists rely on to create random variables and predict events. The well-known Monte-Carlo simulation method derives its name from the games of chance for which the town of Monte-Carlo is famous. Particle physicists are not the only ones to make use of chance and probabilities. They have daily applications in many fields, both scientific and non-scientific, including climatology, cosmology and the world of finance. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the chances of learning more about the science of chance at the next Discovery Monday are very high! The event will be conducted in French. Join us at Microcosm (Reception, Building 33, Meyrin site) on Monday, 4 December from 7.30 p.m. to 9 p.m. Entrance is free http://www.cern.ch/LundisDecouverte...

  14. Predictions for Boson-Jet Observables and Fragmentation Function Ratios from a Hybrid Strong/Weak Coupling Model for Jet Quenching

    CERN Document Server

    Casalderrey-Solana, Jorge; Milhano, José Guilherme; Pablos, Daniel; Rajagopal, Krishna

    2016-01-01

    We have previously introduced a hybrid strong/weak coupling model for jet quenching in heavy ion collisions that describes the production and fragmentation of jets at weak coupling, using PYTHIA, and describes the rate at which each parton in the jet shower loses energy as it propagates through the strongly coupled plasma, dE/dx, using an expression computed holographically at strong coupling. The model has a single free parameter that we fit to a single experimental measurement. We then confront our model with experimental data on many other jet observables, focusing here on boson-jet observables, finding that it provides a good description of present jet data. Next, we provide the predictions of our hybrid model for many measurements to come, including those for inclusive jet, dijet, photon-jet and Z-jet observables in heavy ion collisions with energy $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ ATeV coming soon at the LHC. As the statistical uncertainties on near-future measurements of photon-jet observables are expected to be much sm...

  15. Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

    2017-03-01

    The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having

  16. A novel multilayer model for missing link prediction and future link forecasting in dynamic complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasami, Yasser; Safaei, Farshad

    2018-02-01

    The traditional complex network theory is particularly focused on network models in which all network constituents are dealt with equivalently, while fail to consider the supplementary information related to the dynamic properties of the network interactions. This is a main constraint leading to incorrect descriptions of some real-world phenomena or incomplete capturing the details of certain real-life problems. To cope with the problem, this paper addresses the multilayer aspects of dynamic complex networks by analyzing the properties of intrinsically multilayered co-authorship networks, DBLP and Astro Physics, and presenting a novel multilayer model of dynamic complex networks. The model examines the layers evolution (layers birth/death process and lifetime) throughout the network evolution. Particularly, this paper models the evolution of each node's membership in different layers by an Infinite Factorial Hidden Markov Model considering feature cascade, and thereby formulates the link generation process for intra-layer and inter-layer links. Although adjacency matrixes are useful to describe the traditional single-layer networks, such a representation is not sufficient to describe and analyze the multilayer dynamic networks. This paper also extends a generalized mathematical infrastructure to address the problems issued by multilayer complex networks. The model inference is performed using some Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies, given synthetic and real complex networks data. Experimental results indicate a tremendous improvement in the performance of the proposed multilayer model in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, F1-score, Matthews correlation coefficient, and accuracy for two important applications of missing link prediction and future link forecasting. The experimental results also indicate the strong predictivepower of the proposed model for the application of

  17. Prediction of strong acceleration motion depended on focal mechanism; Shingen mechanism wo koryoshita jishindo yosoku ni tsuite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneda, Y.; Ejiri, J. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-01

    This paper describes simulation results of strong acceleration motion with varying uncertain fault parameters mainly for a fault model of Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. For the analysis, based on the fault parameters, the strong acceleration motion was simulated using the radiation patterns and the breaking time difference of composite faults as parameters. A statistic waveform composition method was used for the simulation. For the theoretical radiation patterns, directivity was emphasized which depended on the strike of faults, and the maximum acceleration was more than 220 gal. While, for the homogeneous radiation patterns, the maximum accelerations were isotopically distributed around the fault as a center. For variations in the maximum acceleration and the predominant frequency due to the breaking time difference of three faults, the response spectral value of maximum/minimum was about 1.7 times. From the viewpoint of seismic disaster prevention, underground structures including potential faults and non-arranging properties can be grasped using this simulation. Significance of the prediction of strong acceleration motion was also provided through this simulation using uncertain factors, such as breaking time of composite faults, as parameters. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Nonlocal response functions for predicting shear flow of strongly inhomogeneous fluids. I. Sinusoidally driven shear and sinusoidally driven inhomogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glavatskiy, Kirill S; Dalton, Benjamin A; Daivis, Peter J; Todd, B D

    2015-06-01

    We present theoretical expressions for the density, strain rate, and shear pressure profiles in strongly inhomogeneous fluids undergoing steady shear flow with periodic boundary conditions. The expressions that we obtain take the form of truncated functional expansions. In these functional expansions, the independent variables are the spatially sinusoidal longitudinal and transverse forces that we apply in nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations. The longitudinal force produces strong density inhomogeneity, and the transverse force produces sinusoidal shear. The functional expansions define new material properties, the response functions, which characterize the system's nonlocal response to the longitudinal force and the transverse force. We find that the sinusoidal longitudinal force, which is mainly responsible for the generation of density inhomogeneity, also modulates the strain rate and shear pressure profiles. Likewise, we find that the sinusoidal transverse force, which is mainly responsible for the generation of sinusoidal shear flow, can also modify the density. These cross couplings between density inhomogeneity and shear flow are also characterized by nonlocal response functions. We conduct nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations to calculate all of the response functions needed to describe the response of the system for weak shear flow in the presence of strong density inhomogeneity up to the third order in the functional expansion. The response functions are then substituted directly into the truncated functional expansions and used to predict the density, velocity, and shear pressure profiles. The results are compared to the directly evaluated profiles from molecular-dynamics simulations, and we find that the predicted profiles from the truncated functional expansions are in excellent agreement with the directly computed density, velocity, and shear pressure profiles.

  19. Nonlocal response functions for predicting shear flow of strongly inhomogeneous fluids. I. Sinusoidally driven shear and sinusoidally driven inhomogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glavatskiy, Kirill S.; Dalton, Benjamin A.; Daivis, Peter J.; Todd, B. D.

    2015-06-01

    We present theoretical expressions for the density, strain rate, and shear pressure profiles in strongly inhomogeneous fluids undergoing steady shear flow with periodic boundary conditions. The expressions that we obtain take the form of truncated functional expansions. In these functional expansions, the independent variables are the spatially sinusoidal longitudinal and transverse forces that we apply in nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations. The longitudinal force produces strong density inhomogeneity, and the transverse force produces sinusoidal shear. The functional expansions define new material properties, the response functions, which characterize the system's nonlocal response to the longitudinal force and the transverse force. We find that the sinusoidal longitudinal force, which is mainly responsible for the generation of density inhomogeneity, also modulates the strain rate and shear pressure profiles. Likewise, we find that the sinusoidal transverse force, which is mainly responsible for the generation of sinusoidal shear flow, can also modify the density. These cross couplings between density inhomogeneity and shear flow are also characterized by nonlocal response functions. We conduct nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations to calculate all of the response functions needed to describe the response of the system for weak shear flow in the presence of strong density inhomogeneity up to the third order in the functional expansion. The response functions are then substituted directly into the truncated functional expansions and used to predict the density, velocity, and shear pressure profiles. The results are compared to the directly evaluated profiles from molecular-dynamics simulations, and we find that the predicted profiles from the truncated functional expansions are in excellent agreement with the directly computed density, velocity, and shear pressure profiles.

  20. Strong ground motion prediction applying dynamic rupture simulations for Beppu-Haneyama Active Fault Zone, southwestern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimi, M.; Matsushima, S.; Ando, R.; Miyake, H.; Imanishi, K.; Hayashida, T.; Takenaka, H.; Suzuki, H.; Matsuyama, H.

    2017-12-01

    We conducted strong ground motion prediction for the active Beppu-Haneyama Fault zone (BHFZ), Kyushu island, southwestern Japan. Since the BHFZ runs through Oita and Beppy cities, strong ground motion as well as fault displacement may affect much to the cities.We constructed a 3-dimensional velocity structure of a sedimentary basin, Beppu bay basin, where the fault zone runs through and Oita and Beppu cities are located. Minimum shear wave velocity of the 3d model is 500 m/s. Additional 1-d structure is modeled for sites with softer sediment: holocene plain area. We observed, collected, and compiled data obtained from microtremor surveys, ground motion observations, boreholes etc. phase velocity and H/V ratio. Finer structure of the Oita Plain is modeled, as 250m-mesh model, with empirical relation among N-value, lithology, depth and Vs, using borehole data, then validated with the phase velocity data obtained by the dense microtremor array observation (Yoshimi et al., 2016).Synthetic ground motion has been calculated with a hybrid technique composed of a stochastic Green's function method (for HF wave), a 3D finite difference (LF wave) and 1D amplification calculation. Fault geometry has been determined based on reflection surveys and active fault map. The rake angles are calculated with a dynamic rupture simulation considering three fault segments under a stress filed estimated from source mechanism of earthquakes around the faults (Ando et al., JpGU-AGU2017). Fault parameters such as the average stress drop, a size of asperity etc. are determined based on an empirical relation proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2001). As a result, strong ground motion stronger than 100 cm/s is predicted in the hanging wall side of the Oita plain.This work is supported by the Comprehensive Research on the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  1. Callous-Unemotional Traits Robustly Predict Future Criminal Offending in Young Men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Rachel E.; Byrd, Amy L.; Pardini, Dustin A.

    2013-01-01

    Callous-unemotional (CU) traits (e.g., lack of empathy, deficient guilt/remorse, and shallow affect) are a circumscribed facet of the adult psychopathic personality. Although several studies have found that adult psychopathy is a robust predictor of future criminal offending, research exploring the predictive utility of CU traits and future offending are lacking. Moreover, empirical studies examining the predictive utility of psychopathic features often neglect to account for other well-documented risk factors (e.g., prior offending, delinquent peers, marital status), and thus the incremental predictive utility of CU traits remains uncertain. To address these limitations, the current study examined the unique contribution of CU traits in the prediction of future criminal offending in a large ethnically diverse community sample of young adult males (Mean Age = 25.76, SD = .95). Official criminal record information was collected approximately 3.5 years later using multiple sources. Results indicated that after controlling for several other well-established predictors of future offending, men with elevated CU traits had a greater number of arrests and criminal charges and were more likely to be charged with a serious offense and obstruction of justice. CU traits also predicted future theft for Caucasian men, but not African American men. Overall, the results support the notion that CU traits significantly add to the prediction of future offending, even after controlling for several other risk factors. PMID:22731505

  2. Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations using Iranian strong-motion data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafarani, H.; Luzi, Lucia; Lanzano, Giovanni; Soghrat, M. R.

    2018-01-01

    A recently compiled, comprehensive, and good-quality strong-motion database of the Iranian earthquakes has been used to develop local empirical equations for the prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) up to 4.0 s. The equations account for style of faulting and four site classes and use the horizontal distance from the surface projection of the rupture plane as a distance measure. The model predicts the geometric mean of horizontal components and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio. A total of 1551 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at distances of up to 200 km from 200 shallow earthquakes (depth regression analysis using the random effects algorithm of Abrahamson and Youngs (Bull Seism Soc Am 82:505-510, 1992), which considers between-events as well as within-events errors. Due to the limited data used in the development of previous Iranian ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and strong trade-offs between different terms of GMPEs, it is likely that the previously determined models might have less precision on their coefficients in comparison to the current study. The richer database of the current study allows improving on prior works by considering additional variables that could not previously be adequately constrained. Here, a functional form used by Boore and Atkinson (Earthquake Spect 24:99-138, 2008) and Bindi et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 9:1899-1920, 2011) has been adopted that allows accounting for the saturation of ground motions at close distances. A regression has been also performed for the V/H in order to retrieve vertical components by scaling horizontal spectra. In order to take into account epistemic uncertainty, the new model can be used along with other appropriate GMPEs through a logic tree framework for seismic hazard assessment in Iran and Middle East region.

  3. Predictive Modeling for Strongly Correlated f-electron Systems: A first-principles and database driven machine learning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Towfiq; Khair, Adnan; Abdullah, Mueen; Harper, Heike; Eriksson, Olle; Wills, John; Zhu, Jian-Xin; Balatsky, Alexander

    Data driven computational tools are being developed for theoretical understanding of electronic properties in f-electron based materials, e.g., Lanthanides and Actnides compounds. Here we show our preliminary work on Ce compounds. Due to a complex interplay among the hybridization of f-electrons to non-interacting conduction band, spin-orbit coupling, and strong coulomb repulsion of f-electrons, no model or first-principles based theory can fully explain all the structural and functional phases of f-electron systems. Motivated by the large need in predictive modeling of actinide compounds, we adopted a data-driven approach. We found negative correlation between the hybridization and atomic volume. Mutual information between these two features were also investigated. In order to extend our search space with more features and predictability of new compounds, we are currently developing electronic structure database. Our f-electron database will be potentially aided by machine learning (ML) algorithm to extract complex electronic, magnetic and structural properties in f-electron system, and thus, will open up new pathways for predictive capabilities and design principles of complex materials. NSEC, IMS at LANL.

  4. Modelling land Use Change : Improving the prediction of future land use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Nijs, A.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land Use Change: Improving the prediction of future land use patterns. Man has been altering his living environment since prehistoric times and will continue to do so. It is predicted that by 2030 about 90,000 ha will be needed for residential developments in the Netherlands and 55,000 ha

  5. Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

    2015-02-01

    Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Prediction of future credit rating using a non-Markovian model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Haur, Ng Kok

    2017-04-01

    The matrix of transition probabilities between rating classes is a popular approach for predicting the future credit rating. This paper instead attempts to predict the future credit rating using a non-Markovian model. The prediction is done via the probability of the future credit rating given the ratings in the present and previous quarters. The estimation of the conditional probability of future credit rating is carried out by means of simulation after fitting the data with a multivariate power-normal distribution. The results based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal indicate the need of extending the Markovian model to the non-Markovian model.

  7. Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

  8. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  10. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  11. Predicting violent behavior: The role of violence exposure and future educational aspirations during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoddard, Sarah A; Heinze, Justin E; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2015-10-01

    Few researchers have explored future educational aspirations as a promotive factor against exposure to community violence in relation to adolescents' violent behavior over time. The present study examined the direct and indirect effect of exposure to community violence prior to 9th grade on attitudes about violence and violent behavior in 12th grade, and violent behavior at age 22 via 9th grade future educational aspirations in a sample of urban African American youth (n = 681; 49% male). Multi-group SEM was used to test the moderating effect of gender. Exposure to violence was associated with lower future educational aspirations. For boys, attitudes about violence directly predicted violent behavior at age 22. For boys, future educational aspirations indirectly predicted less violent behavior at age 22. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Rajagopalan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  13. Gambling and the Reasoned Action Model: Predicting Past Behavior, Intentions, and Future Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Ethan; Tagler, Michael J; Hohman, Zachary P

    2018-03-01

    Gambling is a serious concern for society because it is highly addictive and is associated with a myriad of negative outcomes. The current study applied the Reasoned Action Model (RAM) to understand and predict gambling intentions and behavior. Although prior studies have taken a reasoned action approach to understand gambling, no prior study has fully applied the RAM or used the RAM to predict future gambling. Across two studies the RAM was used to predict intentions to gamble, past gambling behavior, and future gambling behavior. In study 1 the model significantly predicted intentions and past behavior in both a college student and Amazon Mechanical Turk sample. In study 2 the model predicted future gambling behavior, measured 2 weeks after initial measurement of the RAM constructs. This study stands as the first to show the utility of the RAM in predicting future gambling behavior. Across both studies, attitudes and perceived normative pressure were the strongest predictors of intentions to gamble. These findings provide increased understanding of gambling and inform the development of gambling interventions based on the RAM.

  14. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  15. Using hematogram model to predict future metabolic syndrome in elderly: a 4-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Hsiang; Hsu, Chun-Hsien; Lin, Jiunn-Diann; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun; Wu, Chung-Ze; Chao, Ting-Ting; Pei, Dee; Liang, Yao-Jen; Wang, Kun; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-03-01

    The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is proposed to predict future occurrence of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There are some other "non-traditional" risk factors such as hematogram components that are also related to the same endpoints as MetS. In this four-year longitudinal study, we used hematogram components to build models for predicting future occurrence of MetS in older men and women separately. Subjects above 65 years without MetS and related diseases were enrolled. All subjects were followed up until they developed MetS or until up to four years from the day of entry, whichever was earlier. Among the 4539 study participants, 1327 developed MetS. Models were built for men and women separately and the areas under the receiver operation curves were significant. The Kaplan-Meier plot showed that the models could predict future MetS. Finally, Cox regression analysis showed that the hematogram model was correlated to future MetS with hazard ratios of 1.567 and 1.738 in men and women, respectively. Our hematogram models could significantly predict future MetS in elderly and might be more practical and convenient for daily clinical practice.

  16. Reward Region Responsivity Predicts Future Weight Gain and Moderating Effects of the TaqIA Allele.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Burger, Kyle S; Yokum, Sonja

    2015-07-15

    Because no large prospective study has investigated neural vulnerability factors that predict future weight gain, we tested whether neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of palatable food and monetary reward predicted body fat gain over a 3-year follow-up in healthy-weight adolescent humans and whether the TaqIA polymorphism moderates these relations. A total of 153 adolescents completed fMRI paradigms assessing response to these events; body fat was assessed annually over follow-up. Elevated orbitofrontal cortex response to cues signaling impending milkshake receipt predicted future body fat gain (r = 0.32), which is a novel finding that provides support for the incentive sensitization theory of obesity. Neural response to receipt and anticipated receipt of monetary reward did not predict body fat gain, which has not been tested previously. Replicating an earlier finding (Stice et al., 2008a), elevated caudate response to milkshake receipt predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for greater dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing the TaqIA A2/A2 allele, but lower caudate response predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a genetic propensity for less dopamine signaling by virtue of possessing a TaqIA A1 allele, though this interaction was only marginal [p-value monetary reward predicted body fat gain over 3-year follow-up in healthy-weight adolescent humans and whether the TaqIA polymorphism moderates these relations. Elevated reward activation in response to food cues predicted future body fat gain. Elevated reward response to food receipt predicted body fat gain for adolescents with a TaqIA A2/A2 allele and lower reward response predicted body fat gain for those with a TaqIA A1 allele. Results imply that too much or too little dopamine signaling and reward region responsivity increases risk for overeating. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3510316-09$15.00/0.

  17. Combination of 24-Hour and 7-Day Relative Neurological Improvement Strongly Predicts 90-Day Functional Outcome of Endovascular Stroke Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Jie; Wang, Huaiming; Tu, Mingyi; Zi, Wenjie; Hao, Yonggang; Yang, Dong; Liu, Wenhua; Wan, Yue; Geng, Yu; Lin, Min; Jin, Ping; Xiong, Yunyun; Xu, Gelin; Yin, Qin; Liu, Xinfeng

    2018-01-03

    Early judgment of long-term prognosis is the key to making medical decisions in acute anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion stroke (LVOS) after endovascular treatment (EVT). We aimed to investigate the relationship between the combination of 24-hour and 7-day relative neurological improvement (RNI) and 90-day functional outcome. We selected the target population from a multicenter ischemic stroke registry. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores at baseline, 24 hours, and 7 days were collected. RNI was calculated by the following equation: (baseline NIHSS - 24-hour/7-day NIHSS)/baseline NIHSS × 100%. A modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2 at 90 days was defined as a favorable outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between RNI and 90-day outcome. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis was performed to identify the predictive power and cutoff point of RNI for functional outcome. A total of 568 patients were enrolled. Both 24-hour and 7-day RNI were independent predictors of 90-day outcome. The best cutoff points of 24-hour and 7-day RNI were 28% and 42%, respectively. Compared with those with 24-hour RNI of less than 28% and 7-day RNI of less than 42%, patients with 24-hour RNI of 28% or greater and 7-day RNI of 42% or greater had a 39.595-fold (95% confidence interval 22.388-70.026) increased probability of achieving 90-day favorable outcome. The combination of 24-hour and 7-day RNI very strongly predicts 90-day functional outcome in patients with acute anterior circulation LVOS who received EVT, and it can be used as an early accurate surrogate of long-term outcome. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

    2018-02-01

    Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

  19. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  20. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  1. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  2. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  3. Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahraman İpekdal

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed to be proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted to document and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM, Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae, an economically important pest of pines in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though, its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming in Europe and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge about species current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern Black Sea Region where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM’s current and future distribution through Artvin and adjacent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical tests showed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for future predictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions. Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climatic conditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.

  4. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  5. Right Heart End-Systolic Remodeling Index Strongly Predicts Outcomes in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: Comparison With Validated Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amsallem, Myriam; Sweatt, Andrew J; Aymami, Marie C; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Selej, Mona; Lu, HongQuan; Mercier, Olaf; Fadel, Elie; Schnittger, Ingela; McConnell, Michael V; Rabinovitch, Marlene; Zamanian, Roham T; Haddad, Francois

    2017-06-01

    Right ventricular (RV) end-systolic dimensions provide information on both size and function. We investigated whether an internally scaled index of end-systolic dimension is incremental to well-validated prognostic scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension. From 2005 to 2014, 228 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension were prospectively enrolled. RV end-systolic remodeling index (RVESRI) was defined by lateral length divided by septal height. The incremental values of RV free wall longitudinal strain and RVESRI to risk scores were determined. Mean age was 49±14 years, 78% were female, 33% had connective tissue disease, 52% were in New York Heart Association class ≥III, and mean pulmonary vascular resistance was 11.2±6.4 WU. RVESRI and right atrial area were strongly connected to the other right heart metrics. Three zones of adaptation (adapted, maladapted, and severely maladapted) were identified based on the RVESRI to RV systolic pressure relationship. During a mean follow-up of 3.9±2.4 years, the primary end point of death, transplant, or admission for heart failure was reached in 88 patients. RVESRI was incremental to risk prediction scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension, including the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management score, the Pulmonary Hypertension Connection equation, and the Mayo Clinic model. Using multivariable analysis, New York Heart Association class III/IV, RVESRI, and log NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) were retained (χ 2 , 62.2; P right heart metrics, RVESRI demonstrated the best test-retest characteristics. RVESRI is a simple reproducible prognostic marker in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Risk factors that predict future onset of each DSM-5 eating disorder: Predictive specificity in high-risk adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Gau, Jeff M; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Because no single report has examined risk factors that predict future onset each type of eating disorder and core symptom dimensions that crosscut disorders, we addressed these aims to advance knowledge regarding risk factor specificity. Data from 3 prevention trials that targeted young women with body dissatisfaction (N = 1,272; Mage = 18.5, SD = 4.2) and collected annual diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to identify predictors of subthreshold/threshold anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD). Negative affect and functional impairment predicted onset of all eating disorders. Thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, overeating, and mental health care predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold BN, BED, and PD; positive thinness expectations, denial of cost of pursuing the thin ideal, and fasting predicted onset of 2 of these 3 disorders. Similar risk factors predicted core eating disorder symptom onset. Low BMI and dieting specifically predicted onset of subthreshold/threshold AN or low BMI. Only a subset of factors showed unique predictive effects in multivariate models, likely due to moderate correlations between the risk factors (M r = .14). Results provide support for the theory that pursuit of the thin ideal and the resulting body dissatisfaction, dieting, and unhealthy weight control behaviors increase risk for binge/purge spectrum eating disorders, but suggest that youth who are inherently lean, rather than purposely pursuing the thin ideal, are at risk for AN. Impaired interpersonal functioning and negative affect are transdiagnostic risk factors, suggesting these factors should be targeted in prevention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  8. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  10. Landsat: building a strong future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveland, Thomas R.; Dwyer, John L.

    2012-01-01

    Conceived in the 1960s, the Landsat program has experienced six successful missions that have contributed to an unprecedented 39-year record of Earth Observations that capture global land conditions and dynamics. Incremental improvements in imaging capabilities continue to improve the quality of Landsat science data, while ensuring continuity over the full instrument record. Landsats 5 and 7 are still collecting imagery. The planned launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission in December 2012 potentially extends the Landsat record to nearly 50 years. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat archive contains nearly three million Landsat images. All USGS Landsat data are available at no cost via the Internet. The USGS is committed to improving the content of the historical Landsat archive though the consolidation of Landsat data held in international archives. In addition, the USGS is working on a strategy to develop higher-level Landsat geo- and biophysical datasets. Finally, Federal efforts are underway to transition Landsat into a sustained operational program within the Department of the Interior and to authorize the development of the next two satellites — Landsats 9 and 10.

  11. Mortality risk prediction models for coronary artery bypass graft surgery: current scenario and future direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Mohammed N; Reid, Christopher M; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Alramadan, Mohammed; Hossain, Mohammed N; Billah, Baki

    2017-12-01

    Many risk prediction models are currently in use for predicting short-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This review critically appraised the methods that were used for developing these models to assess their applicability in current practice setting as well as for the necessity of up-gradation. Medline via Ovid was searched for articles published between 1946 and 2016 and EMBASE via Ovid between 1974 and 2016 to identify risk prediction models for CABG. Article selection and data extraction was conducted using the CHARMS checklist for review of prediction model studies. Association between model development methods and model's discrimination was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance and Mann-Whitney U-test. A total of 53 risk prediction models for short-term mortality following CABG were identified. The review found a wide variation in development methodology of risk prediction models in the field. Ambiguous predictor and outcome definition, sub-optimum sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and inefficient predictor selection technique are major issues identified in the review. Quantitative synthesis in the review showed "missing value imputation" and "adopting machine learning algorithms" may result in better discrimination power of the models. There are aspects in current risk modeling, where there is room for improvement to reflect current clinical practice. Future risk modelling needs to adopt a standardized approach to defining both outcome and predictor variables, rational treatment of missing data and robust statistical techniques to enhance performance of the mortality risk prediction.

  12. Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cates, Grant R.

    2014-01-01

    The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

  13. Toxicogenomic multigene biomarker for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minowa, Yohsuke; Kondo, Chiaki; Uehara, Takeki; Morikawa, Yuji; Okuno, Yasushi; Nakatsu, Noriyuki; Ono, Atsushi; Maruyama, Toshiyuki; Kato, Ikuo; Yamate, Jyoji; Yamada, Hiroshi; Ohno, Yasuo; Urushidani, Tetsuro

    2012-01-01

    Drug-induced renal tubular injury is a major concern in the preclinical safety evaluation of drug candidates. Toxicogenomics is now a generally accepted tool for identifying chemicals with potential safety problems. The specific aim of the present study was to develop a model for use in predicting the future onset of drug-induced proximal tubular injury following repeated dosing with various nephrotoxicants. In total, 41 nephrotoxic and nonnephrotoxic compounds were used for the present analysis. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed orally or intravenously once daily. Animals were exposed to three different doses (low, middle, and high) of each compound, and kidney tissue was collected at 3, 6, 9, and 24 h after single dosing, and on days 4, 8, 15, and 29 after repeated dosing. Gene expression profiles were generated from kidney total RNA using Affymetrix DNA microarrays. Filter-type gene selection and linear classification algorithms were employed to discriminate future onset of proximal tubular injury. We identified genomic biomarkers for use in future onset prediction using the gene expression profiles determined on day 1, when most of the nephrotoxicants had yet to produce detectable histopathological changes. The model was evaluated using a five-fold cross validation, and achieved a sensitivity of 93% and selectivity of 90% with 19 probes. We also found that the prediction accuracy of the optimized model was substantially higher than that produced by any of the single genomic biomarkers or histopathology. The genes included in our model were primarily involved in DNA replication, cell cycle control, apoptosis, and responses to oxidative stress and chemical stimuli. In summary, our toxicogenomic model is particularly useful for predicting the future onset of proximal tubular injury.

  14. Predicting Future Deterioration of Hydraulic Steel Structures with Markov Chain and Multivariate Samples of Statistical Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo A. Riveros

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined effects of several complex phenomena cause the deterioration of elements of steel hydraulic structures on the nation’s lock systems: loss of protective systems, corrosion, cracking and fatigue, impacts, and overloads. This paper presents examples of deterioration of steel hydraulic structures. A method for predicting future deterioration based on current conditions is also presented. This paper also includes a procedure for developing deterioration curves when condition state data is available.

  15. Predicting the Future: The Characteristics and Possible Psychological Explanations of Precognitive Dreaming

    OpenAIRE

    Cawthron, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    A recent survey established that one in four Americans believe in the ability to predict the future; however there is currently very little research investigating the phenomenon of precognition. The present study examined the occurrence of precognition in dreams, analysing precognitive and non-precognitive dreams submitted by 46 participants (precognitive believers and sceptics) to the Perrott-Warwick Dream Registry at the University of Edinburgh. Both dream types were compared on ratings of ...

  16. Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

  17. What should we want to know about our future? A Kantian view on predictive genetic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Bert

    2005-01-01

    Recent advances in genomic research have led to the development of new diagnostic tools, including tests which make it possible to predict the future occurrence of monogenetic diseases (e.g. Chorea Huntington) or to determine increased susceptibilities to the future development of more complex diseases (e.g. breast cancer). The use of such tests raises a number of ethical, legal and social issues which are usually discussed in terms of rights. However, in the context of predictive genetic tests a key question arises which lies beyond the concept of rights, namely, What should we want to know about our future? In the following I shall discuss this question against the background of Kant's Doctrine of Virtue. It will be demonstrated that the system of duties of virtue that Kant elaborates in the second part of his Metaphysics of Morals offers a theoretical framework for addressing the question of a proper scope of future knowledge as provided by genetic tests. This approach can serve as a source of moral guidance complementary to a justice perspective. It does, however, not rest on the-rather problematic--claim to be able to define what the "good life" is.

  18. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald de Vlaming

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii the computational feasibility, and (iv the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis. Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N<10,000 the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP. However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  19. Pleasure Now, Pain Later: Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oettingen, Gabriele; Mayer, Doris; Portnow, Sam

    2016-03-01

    Though common sense suggests that positive thinking shelters people from depression, the four studies reported here showed that this intuition needs to be qualified: Positive thinking in the form of fantasies about the future did indeed relate to decreased symptoms of depression when measured concurrently; however, positive fantasies predicted more depressive symptoms when measured longitudinally. The pattern of results was observed for different indicators of fantasies and depression, in adults and in schoolchildren, and for periods of up to 7 months (Studies 1-4). In college students, low academic success partially mediated the predictive relation between positive fantasies and symptoms of depression (Study 4). Results add to existing research on the problematic effects of positive fantasies on performance by suggesting that indulging in positive fantasies predicts problems in mental health. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Methods for prediction of strong earthquake ground motion. Final technical report, October 1, 1976--September 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trifunac, M.D.

    1977-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the results of the work on characterization of strong earthquake ground motion. The objective of this effort has been to initiate presentation of simple yet detailed methodology for characterization of strong earthquake ground motion for use in licensing and evaluation of operating Nuclear Power Plants. This report will emphasize the simplicity of the methodology by presenting only the end results in a format that may be useful for the development of the site specific criteria in seismic risk analysis, for work on the development of modern standards and regulatory guides, and for re-evaluation of the existing power plant sites

  1. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  2. Machine-Learning-Based Future Received Signal Strength Prediction Using Depth Images for mmWave Communications

    OpenAIRE

    Okamoto, Hironao; Nishio, Takayuki; Nakashima, Kota; Koda, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Koji; Morikura, Masahiro; Asai, Yusuke; Miyatake, Ryo

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses a machine-learning (ML)-based future received signal strength (RSS) prediction scheme using depth camera images for millimeter-wave (mmWave) networks. The scheme provides the future RSS prediction of any mmWave links within the camera's view, including links where nodes are not transmitting frames. This enables network controllers to conduct network operations before line-of-sight path blockages degrade the RSS. Using the ML techniques, the prediction scheme automatically...

  3. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick J F

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii) the computational feasibility, and (iv) the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis). Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP). However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.

  4. Use of the Asthma Control Questionnaire to predict future risk of asthma exacerbation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Eli O; Busse, William W; Wenzel, Sally E; Belozeroff, Vasily; Weng, Haoling H; Feng, JingYuan; Chon, Yun; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Globe, Denise; Lin, Shao-Lee

    2011-01-01

    Direct correlation of assessments of a validated composite measure such as the Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and risk of exacerbation has not been previously demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial. To evaluate the ability of the ACQ score over time to predict risk of a future asthma exacerbation. This analysis included data from a 12-week placebo-controlled trial (N = 292) of AMG 317, an IL-4 receptor α antagonist, in patients with moderate to severe atopic asthma. At baseline, patients had an ACQ score ≥1.5. Exacerbations were defined as requirement for systemic corticosteroids. A Cox proportional hazards model was used, with ACQ score as the time-dependent covariate. The analysis was repeated for individual components of the ACQ. Each 1-point increase in ACQ was associated with a 50% increased risk of exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20) for the following 2-week period. Evaluation of individual ACQ components also demonstrated a similar trend, though each to a lesser degree than the full composite ACQ. Although based on a retrospective analysis, with small number of exacerbations, these findings support the utility of the composite ACQ score measurement to predict risk of future exacerbation in clinical trials and clinical practice. The composite ACQ score measurement was found to be a better predictor of future risk than individual ACQ components. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Factors predicting future time orientation for romantic relationships with the opposite sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oner, B

    2001-07-01

    The author examines the possible connection of predictors of future time orientation to romantic relationships with the opposite sex using the Future Time Orientation in Romantic Relationships Scale (FTORR; B. Oner, 2000b). The variables suggested as correlates with FTORR scores in B. Oner's (2000a) study were subjected to regression analysis. The results indicated that relationship satisfaction and an eagerness to break up negative relationships were negatively related to FTORR scores, whereas being a woman, experiencing jealousy, and the degree of selectivity in choosing a dating partner were positively related to FTORR scores. Caution and relationship commitment both predicted FTORR scores through the mediating effect of relationship satisfaction. The author discusses the implications of the findings.

  6. Does Emotional Intelligence at Medical School Admission Predict Future Academic Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leddy, John J.; Wood, Timothy J.; Puddester, Derek; Moineau, Geneviève

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Medical school admissions committees are increasingly considering noncognitive measures like emotional intelligence (EI) in evaluating potential applicants. This study explored whether scores on an EI abilities test at admissions predicted future academic performance in medical school to determine whether EI could be used in making admissions decisions. Method The authors invited all University of Ottawa medical school applicants offered an interview in 2006 and 2007 to complete the Mayer–Salovey–Caruso EI Test (MSCEIT) at the time of their interview (105 and 101, respectively), then again at matriculation (120 and 106, respectively). To determine predictive validity, they correlated MSCEIT scores to scores on written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) administered during the four-year program. They also correlated MSCEIT scores to the number of nominations for excellence in clinical performance and failures recorded over the four years. Results The authors found no significant correlations between MSCEIT scores and written examination scores or number of failures. The correlations between MSCEIT scores and total OSCE scores ranged from 0.01 to 0.35; only MSCEIT scores at matriculation and OSCE year 4 scores for the 2007 cohort were significantly correlated. Correlations between MSCEIT scores and clinical nominations were low (range 0.12–0.28); only the correlation between MSCEIT scores at matriculation and number of clinical nominations for the 2007 cohort were statistically significant. Conclusions EI, as measured by an abilities test at admissions, does not appear to reliably predict future academic performance. Future studies should define the role of EI in admissions decisions. PMID:24556771

  7. Serum uric acid predicts both current and future components of the metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osgood, Kristy; Krakoff, Jonathan; Thearle, Marie

    2013-06-01

    Uric acid (UA) is known to be associated with excess adiposity and insulin resistance. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between UA and the factors associated with the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), both initially and longitudinally. Serum UA was assessed as a potential determinant of concurrent blood pressure, serum lipids, glucose regulation measured via an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), acute insulin response (AIR), and insulin action (M) measured with hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamps in 245 participants (72% Native American, 56% male). UA was also assessed as a predictor of the above variables in 60 participants with follow-up data available (median follow-up time=11.2 years [interquartile range (IQR)=8.1, 13.6 years]. The impact of UA on the risk of T2DM was determined as 36 of the 245 participants developed T2DM after the baseline visit. UA was negatively associated with both concurrent and future M, such that for every 1 mg/dL increase in serum UA, M decreased 7.6% (P<0.001) and future M decreased 6.3% (P=0.02). However, UA was not associated with AIR (P=0.7). UA concentrations were a predictor of T2DM [hazard risk ratio (HRR)=1.5; P=0.02]. UA was positively associated with both concurrent blood pressure and lipids and also predicted future increases in blood pressure and total cholesterol. Not only did UA associate with concomitant insulin action, blood pressure, and lipids, it also predicted future declines in insulin action and T2DM. UA is a potential target for preventing decreases in insulin sensitivity and rises in blood pressure and cholesterol.

  8. Antimicrobial drug resistance: "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courvalin, Patrice

    2005-10-01

    Evolution of bacteria towards resistance to antimicrobial drugs, including multidrug resistance, is unavoidable because it represents a particular aspect of the general evolution of bacteria that is unstoppable. Therefore, the only means of dealing with this situation is to delay the emergence and subsequent dissemination of resistant bacteria or resistance genes. Resistance to antimicrobial drugs in bacteria can result from mutations in housekeeping structural or regulatory genes. Alternatively, resistance can result from the horizontal acquisition of foreign genetic information. The 2 phenomena are not mutually exclusive and can be associated in the emergence and more efficient spread of resistance. This review discusses the predictable future of the relationship between antimicrobial drugs and bacteria.

  9. Prediction and reconstruction of future and missing unobservable modified Weibull lifetime based on generalized order statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amany E. Aly

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available When a system consisting of independent components of the same type, some appropriate actions may be done as soon as a portion of them have failed. It is, therefore, important to be able to predict later failure times from earlier ones. One of the well-known failure distributions commonly used to model component life, is the modified Weibull distribution (MWD. In this paper, two pivotal quantities are proposed to construct prediction intervals for future unobservable lifetimes based on generalized order statistics (gos from MWD. Moreover, a pivotal quantity is developed to reconstruct missing observations at the beginning of experiment. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted and numerical computations are carried out to investigate the efficiency of presented results. Finally, two illustrative examples for real data sets are analyzed.

  10. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Singh, Sonali; Dadhwal, V. K.; Jha, C. S.; Rao, N. Rama; Diwakar, P. G.

    2017-02-01

    This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km2, which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880-2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km2 of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.

  12. Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

    2013-10-01

    The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction.

  13. Implicit but not explicit self-esteem predicts future depressive symptomatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franck, Erik; De Raedt, Rudi; De Houwer, Jan

    2007-10-01

    To date, research on the predictive validity of implicit self-esteem for depressive relapse is very sparse. In the present study, we assessed implicit self-esteem using the Name Letter Preference Task and explicit self-esteem using the Rosenberg self-esteem scale in a group of currently depressed patients, formerly depressed individuals, and never depressed controls. In addition, we examined the predictive validity of explicit, implicit, and the interaction of explicit and implicit self-esteem in predicting future symptoms of depression in formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. The results showed that currently depressed individuals reported a lower explicit self-esteem as compared to formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls. In line with previous research, all groups showed a positive implicit self-esteem not different from each other. Furthermore, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, implicit but not explicit self-esteem significantly predicted depressive symptoms at six months follow-up. Although implicit self-esteem assessed with the Name Letter Preference Test was not different between formerly depressed individuals and never depressed controls, the findings suggest it is an interesting variable in the study of vulnerability for depression relapse.

  14. Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

  15. Chronic health conditions and depressive symptoms strongly predict persistent food insecurity among rural low-income families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Karla L; Olson, Christine M

    2012-08-01

    Longitudinal studies of food insecurity have not considered the unique circumstances of rural families. This study identified factors predictive of discontinuous and persistent food insecurity over three years among low-income families with children in rural counties in 13 U.S. states. Respondents reported substantial knowledge of community resources, food and finance skills, and use of formal public food assistance, yet 24% had persistent food insecurity, and another 41% were food insecure for one or two years. Multivariate multinomial regression models tested relationships between human capital, social support, financial resources, expenses, and food insecurity. Enduring chronic health conditions increased the risk of both discontinuous and persistent food insecurity. Lasting risk for depression predicted only persistent food insecurity. Education beyond high school was the only factor found protective against persistent food insecurity. Access to quality physical and mental health care services are essential to ameliorate persistent food insecurity among rural, low-income families.

  16. Self-Conscious Shyness: Growth during Toddlerhood, Strong Role of Genetics, and No Prediction from Fearful Shyness

    OpenAIRE

    Eggum-Wilkens, Natalie D.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Aksan, Nazan; Goldsmith, H. Hill

    2014-01-01

    Fearful and self-conscious subtypes of shyness have received little attention in the empirical literature. Study aims included: 1) determining if fearful shyness predicted self-conscious shyness, 2) describing development of self-conscious shyness, and 3) examining genetic and environmental contributions to fearful and self-conscious shyness. Observed self-conscious shyness was examined at 19, 22, 25, and 28 months in same-sex twins (MZ = 102, DZ = 111, missing zygosity = 3 pairs). Self-consc...

  17. Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M; Swamidass, S Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J

    2014-10-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas.

  18. Bigger Data, Collaborative Tools and the Future of Predictive Drug Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service (SaaS) commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas. PMID:24943138

  19. Bigger data, collaborative tools and the future of predictive drug discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekins, Sean; Clark, Alex M.; Swamidass, S. Joshua; Litterman, Nadia; Williams, Antony J.

    2014-10-01

    Over the past decade we have seen a growth in the provision of chemistry data and cheminformatics tools as either free websites or software as a service commercial offerings. These have transformed how we find molecule-related data and use such tools in our research. There have also been efforts to improve collaboration between researchers either openly or through secure transactions using commercial tools. A major challenge in the future will be how such databases and software approaches handle larger amounts of data as it accumulates from high throughput screening and enables the user to draw insights, enable predictions and move projects forward. We now discuss how information from some drug discovery datasets can be made more accessible and how privacy of data should not overwhelm the desire to share it at an appropriate time with collaborators. We also discuss additional software tools that could be made available and provide our thoughts on the future of predictive drug discovery in this age of big data. We use some examples from our own research on neglected diseases, collaborations, mobile apps and algorithm development to illustrate these ideas.

  20. Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Future climate change may affect agricultural production through changes in both mean and variability of climatic conditions which in turn could affect crop growth and development. Results of many studies have shown that crop production systems of dry regions are more vulnerable to the predicted climate changes (5 and these impacts are mainly due to the effects of increased temperature on agro-climatic variables (4. During the last decade future changes in agro-climatic variables such as growth degree days, length of growth period and duration of dry season have been studied at regional or national scale with different results depending on studied location (1, 6. However, such information are not available for Iran. In this study different agro-climatic indices of Iran across the country are calculated for the target year 2050 based on business as usual scenario and the results are compared with the current conditions. Materials and Methods Long term climatic data (1965-2005 of 34 stations covering different climates across the country were used as the baseline for predicting future climate as well as current conditions. Two general circulation models (GISS and GFDL were used for prediction of climatic variables in the selected stations for the year 2050 based on business as usual (A1f scenario of CERES family (2 and the results were statistically downscaled for higher resolution (Koocheki et al., 2006. Daily temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean and precipitation were generated from the predicted monthly values. Several agro-climatic indices including potential evapotranspiration, length of growing season (time period between the last spring frost and the first autumn frost, length of dry season (time period where evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation which obtained from ombrothermic curve, and precipitation deficiency index (sum of differences between evapotranspiration and precipitation were calculated based on daily

  1. Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

    2016-10-01

    mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  2. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Predicting future staffing needs at teaching hospitals: use of an analytical program with multiple variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Christine C; Ashley, Stanley W; Zinner, Michael J; Moore, Francis D

    2007-04-01

    To develop a model to predict future staffing for the surgery service at a teaching hospital. Tertiary hospital. A computer model with potential future variables was constructed. Some of the variables were distribution of resident staff, fellows, and physician extenders; salary/wages; work hours; educational value of rotations; work units, inpatient wards, and clinics; future volume growth; and efficiency savings. Outcomes Number of staff to be hired, staffing expense, and educational impact. On a busy general surgery service, we estimated the impact of changes in resident work hours, service growth, and workflow efficiency in the next 5 years. Projecting a reduction in resident duty hours to 60 hours per week will require the hiring of 10 physician assistants at a cost of $1 134 000, a cost that is increased by $441 000 when hiring hospitalists instead. Implementing a day of didactic and simulator time (10 hours) will further increase the costs by $568 000. A 10% improvement in the efficiency of floor care, as might be gained by advanced information technology capability or by regionalization of patients, can mitigate these expenses by as much as 21%. On the other hand, a modest annual growth of 2% will increase the costs by $715 000 to $2 417 000. To simply replace residents with alternative providers requires large amounts of human and fiscal capital. The potential for simple efficiencies to mitigate some of this expense suggests that traditional patterns of care in teaching hospitals will have to change in response to educational mandates.

  4. What predicts patients' expressed likelihood of choosing electroconvulsive therapy as a future treatment option?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenquist, Peter B; Dunn, Aaron; Rapp, Stephen; Gaba, Aline; McCall, W Vaughn

    2006-03-01

    To examine the relationship between stated intention to choose electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) as a future treatment option and measures of function and quality of life, mood, and cognition in the month after this therapy. Understanding the factors influencing patient choice of ECT is a source of insight into the interplay between measures of response and perceived value of this treatment to patients, lending perspective to patient-centered quality improvement efforts. In a prospective sample of 77 depressed patients given ECT, we surveyed recipients at 1 month about their expressed likelihood of choosing ECT given a future episode and examined predictors of their responses. Thirty-four subjects were classified as "likely" to choose a course of ECT, whereas 33 patients were "unlikely." A model including Hamilton baseline and change scores as well as baseline scores in instrumental activities of daily living significantly predicted likeliness after controlling for age and sex (R = 0.34, P quality-of-life variables and measures of change in cognition were not significant in the model. In our sample, choosing ECT as a future treatment option was more likely for those who were more depressed before treatment, had more impaired instrumental activities at the outset of treatment, and experienced a more robust improvement in depressive symptoms. This variance was not explained by treatment-associated improvements in quality of life, function, or deficits in cognitive status.

  5. Validation of a multifactorial risk factor model used for predicting future caries risk with nevada adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mobley Connie

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to measure the validity and reliability of a multifactorial Risk Factor Model developed for use in predicting future caries risk in Nevada adolescents in a public health setting. Methods This study examined retrospective data from an oral health surveillance initiative that screened over 51,000 students 13-18 years of age, attending public/private schools in Nevada across six academic years (2002/2003-2007/2008. The Risk Factor Model included ten demographic variables: exposure to fluoridation in the municipal water supply, environmental smoke exposure, race, age, locale (metropolitan vs. rural, tobacco use, Body Mass Index, insurance status, sex, and sealant application. Multiple regression was used in a previous study to establish which significantly contributed to caries risk. Follow-up logistic regression ascertained the weight of contribution and odds ratios of the ten variables. Researchers in this study computed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP, negative predictive value (PVN, and prevalence across all six years of screening to assess the validity of the Risk Factor Model. Results Subjects' overall mean caries prevalence across all six years was 66%. Average sensitivity across all six years was 79%; average specificity was 81%; average PVP was 89% and average PVN was 67%. Conclusions Overall, the Risk Factor Model provided a relatively constant, valid measure of caries that could be used in conjunction with a comprehensive risk assessment in population-based screenings by school nurses/nurse practitioners, health educators, and physicians to guide them in assessing potential future caries risk for use in prevention and referral practices.

  6. Longitudinal Alterations of Frontoparietal and Frontotemporal Networks Predict Future Creative Cognitive Ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qunlin; Beaty, Roger E; Wei, Dongtao; Yang, Junyi; Sun, Jiangzhou; Liu, Wei; Yang, Wenjing; Zhang, Qinglin; Qiu, Jiang

    2018-01-01

    Creative cognition is important to academic performance and career success during late adolescence and adulthood. However, there is a lack of longitudinal data on whether brain structural development could predict improvements in creative thinking, and how such changes interact with other cognitive abilities to support creative performance. Here we examined longitudinal alterations of brain structure and their relation to creative cognitive ability in a sample of 159 healthy young adults who were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging 2-3 times over the course of 3 years. The most robust predictor of future creative ability was the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), which in conjunction with baseline creative capacity showed a 31% prediction rate. Longitudinal analysis revealed that slower decreases in gray matter density within left frontoparietal and right frontotemporal clusters predicted enhanced creative ability. Moreoever, the relationship between longitudinal alterations within frontal-related clusters and improved creative ability was moderated by the right DLPFC and working memory ability. We conclude that continuous goal-directed planning and accumulated knowledge are implemented in the right DLPFC and temporal areas, respectively, which in turn support longitudinal gains in creative cognitive ability. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  8. A Path Tracking Algorithm Using Future Prediction Control with Spike Detection for an Autonomous Vehicle Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Aizzat Zakaria

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking is an important aspect of autonomous vehicles. The idea behind trajectory tracking is the ability of the vehicle to follow a predefined path with zero steady state error. The difficulty arises due to the nonlinearity of vehicle dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes a stable tracking control for an autonomous vehicle. An approach that consists of steering wheel control and lateral control is introduced. This control algorithm is used for a non-holonomic navigation problem, namely tracking a reference trajectory in a closed loop form. A proposed future prediction point control algorithm is used to calculate the vehicle's lateral error in order to improve the performance of the trajectory tracking. A feedback sensor signal from the steering wheel angle and yaw rate sensor is used as feedback information for the controller. The controller consists of a relationship between the future point lateral error, the linear velocity, the heading error and the reference yaw rate. This paper also introduces a spike detection algorithm to track the spike error that occurs during GPS reading. The proposed idea is to take the advantage of the derivative of the steering rate. This paper aims to tackle the lateral error problem by applying the steering control law to the vehicle, and proposes a new path tracking control method by considering the future coordinate of the vehicle and the future estimated lateral error. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated by a simulation and a GPS experiment with noisy data. The approach used in this paper is not limited to autonomous vehicles alone since the concept of autonomous vehicle tracking can be used in mobile robot platforms, as the kinematic model of these two platforms is similar.

  9. The predictive power of dividend yields for future inflation: Money illusion or rational causes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    slope coefficients that increase numerically with the horizon in regressions of future inflation onto the dividend yield, in accordance with the data. A purely rational version of the model with no money illusion, but with a link from expected inflation to real consumption growth, also generates......In long-term US data the stock market dividend yield is a strong predictor of long-horizon inflation with a negative slope coefficient. This finding is puzzling in light of the traditional Modigliani-Cohn money illusion hypothesis according to which the dividend yield varies positively...... with expected inflation. To rationalize the finding we develop a consumption-based model with recursive preferences and money illusion. The model with reasonable values of risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution, and either rational or adaptive expectations, implies significantly negative...

  10. Predicting the future from the past in corrosion science and engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macdonald, Digby D. [Center for Electrochemical Science and Technology, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, 201 Steidle Building, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Engelhardt, George [OLI Systems Inc., 108 American Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The accumulation of damage due to localized corrosion (pitting, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), corrosion fatigue (CF), crevice corrosion (CC), and erosion-corrosion (EC)) in complex industrial systems, such as power plants, refineries, desalination systems, etc., poses a threat to continued safe and economic operation, primarily because of the sudden, catastrophic nature of the resulting failures. Of particular interest in managing these forms of damage is the development of robust algorithms that can be used to predict the integrated damage as a function of time and as a function of the operating conditions of the system. Because complex systems of the same design rapidly become unique, due to differences in operating histories, and because failures are rare events, there is generally insufficient data on any given system to derive reliable empirical models that capture the impact of all (or even some) of the important independent variables. Accordingly, empirical models have generally failed to provide a robust basis for predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage in complex systems under realistic operating conditions. The alternative prediction philosophy is determinism, in which the development of damage is described in terms of valid, physico-electrochemical mechanisms with the output being constrained by the natural laws. The differential damage is then integrated along the corrosion evolutionary path for the system (i.e., over the future operating history) to yield the desired integrated damage, which is the quantity that is most useful to an operator. In this paper, we review the theory of predicting corrosion damage within the framework of Damage Function Analysis (DFA), with particular emphasis on the pitting of aluminum in chloride solutions and on the accumulation of damage from SCC in Type 304 SS components in the primary coolant circuits of Boiling Water (Nuclear) Reactors (BWRs). These cases have been selected to illustrate the various phases

  11. In silico and cell-based analyses reveal strong divergence between prediction and observation of T-cell-recognized tumor antigen T-cell epitopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Julien; Guillaume, Philippe; Dojcinovic, Danijel; Karbach, Julia; Coukos, George; Luescher, Immanuel

    2017-07-14

    Tumor exomes provide comprehensive information on mutated, overexpressed genes and aberrant splicing, which can be exploited for personalized cancer immunotherapy. Of particular interest are mutated tumor antigen T-cell epitopes, because neoepitope-specific T cells often are tumoricidal. However, identifying tumor-specific T-cell epitopes is a major challenge. A widely used strategy relies on initial prediction of human leukocyte antigen-binding peptides by in silico algorithms, but the predictive power of this approach is unclear. Here, we used the human tumor antigen NY-ESO-1 (ESO) and the human leukocyte antigen variant HLA-A*0201 (A2) as a model and predicted in silico the 41 highest-affinity, A2-binding 8-11-mer peptides and assessed their binding, kinetic complex stability, and immunogenicity in A2-transgenic mice and on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from ESO-vaccinated melanoma patients. We found that 19 of the peptides strongly bound to A2, 10 of which formed stable A2-peptide complexes and induced CD8 + T cells in A2-transgenic mice. However, only 5 of the peptides induced cognate T cells in humans; these peptides exhibited strong binding and complex stability and contained multiple large hydrophobic and aromatic amino acids. These results were not predicted by in silico algorithms and provide new clues to improving T-cell epitope identification. In conclusion, our findings indicate that only a small fraction of in silico -predicted A2-binding ESO peptides are immunogenic in humans, namely those that have high peptide-binding strength and complex stability. This observation highlights the need for improving in silico predictions of peptide immunogenicity. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  12. Lower Serum Zinc and Higher CRP Strongly Predict Prenatal Depression and Physio-somatic Symptoms, Which All Together Predict Postnatal Depressive Symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roomruangwong, Chutima; Kanchanatawan, Buranee; Sirivichayakul, Sunee; Mahieu, Boris; Nowak, Gabriel; Maes, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Pregnancy and delivery are associated with activation of immune-inflammatory pathways which may prime parturients to develop postnatal depression. There are, however, few data on the associations between immune-inflammatory pathways and prenatal depression and physio-somatic symptoms. This study examined the associations between serum zinc, C-reactive protein (CRP), and haptoglobin at the end of term and prenatal physio-somatic symptoms (fatigue, back pain, muscle pain, dyspepsia, obstipation) and prenatal and postnatal depressive and anxiety symptoms as measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), and Spielberger's State Anxiety Inventory (STAI). Zinc and haptoglobin were significantly lower and CRP increased at the end of term as compared with non-pregnant women. Prenatal depression was predicted by lower zinc and lifetime history of depression, anxiety, and premenstrual tension syndrome (PMS). The latter histories were also significantly and inversely related to lower zinc. The severity of prenatal EDPS, HAMD, BDI, STAI, and physio-somatic symptoms was predicted by fatigue in the first and second trimesters, a positive life history of depression, anxiety, and PMS, and lower zinc and higher CRP. Postnatal depressive symptoms are predicted by prenatal depression, physio-somatic symptoms, zinc and CRP. Prenatal depressive and physio-somatic symptoms have an immune-inflammatory pathophysiology, while postnatal depressive symptoms are highly predicted by prenatal immune activation, prenatal depression, and a lifetime history of depression and PMS. Previous episodes of depression, anxiety disorders, and PMS may prime pregnant females to develop prenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms via activated immune pathways.

  13. Interpreting the Strongly Lensed Supernova iPTF16geu: Time Delay Predictions, Microlensing, and Lensing Rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    More, Anupreeta; Oguri, Masamune; More, Surhud [Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU, WPI), University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan); Suyu, Sherry H. [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Lee, Chien-Hsiu, E-mail: anupreeta.more@ipmu.jp [Subaru Telescope, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 650 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We present predictions for time delays between multiple images of the gravitationally lensed supernova, iPTF16geu, which was recently discovered from the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). As the supernova is of Type Ia where the intrinsic luminosity is usually well known, accurately measured time delays of the multiple images could provide tight constraints on the Hubble constant. According to our lens mass models constrained by the Hubble Space Telescope F814W image, we expect the maximum relative time delay to be less than a day, which is consistent with the maximum of 100 hr reported by Goobar et al. but places a stringent upper limit. Furthermore, the fluxes of most of the supernova images depart from expected values suggesting that they are affected by microlensing. The microlensing timescales are small enough that they may pose significant problems to measure the time delays reliably. Our lensing rate calculation indicates that the occurrence of a lensed SN in iPTF is likely. However, the observed total magnification of iPTF16geu is larger than expected, given its redshift. This may be a further indication of ongoing microlensing in this system.

  14. Predicting Future High-Cost Schizophrenia Patients Using High-Dimensional Administrative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajuan Wang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe burden of serious and persistent mental illness such as schizophrenia is substantial and requires health-care organizations to have adequate risk adjustment models to effectively allocate their resources to managing patients who are at the greatest risk. Currently available models underestimate health-care costs for those with mental or behavioral health conditions.ObjectivesThe study aimed to develop and evaluate predictive models for identification of future high-cost schizophrenia patients using advanced supervised machine learning methods.MethodsThis was a retrospective study using a payer administrative database. The study cohort consisted of 97,862 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (ICD9 code 295.* from January 2009 to June 2014. Training (n = 34,510 and study evaluation (n = 30,077 cohorts were derived based on 12-month observation and prediction windows (PWs. The target was average total cost/patient/month in the PW. Three models (baseline, intermediate, final were developed to assess the value of different variable categories for cost prediction (demographics, coverage, cost, health-care utilization, antipsychotic medication usage, and clinical conditions. Scalable orthogonal regression, significant attribute selection in high dimensions method, and random forests regression were used to develop the models. The trained models were assessed in the evaluation cohort using the regression R2, patient classification accuracy (PCA, and cost accuracy (CA. The model performance was compared to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC model.ResultsAt top 10% cost cutoff, the final model achieved 0.23 R2, 43% PCA, and 63% CA; in contrast, the CMS-HCC model achieved 0.09 R2, 27% PCA with 45% CA. The final model and the CMS-HCC model identified 33 and 22%, respectively, of total cost at the top 10% cost cutoff.ConclusionUsing advanced feature selection leveraging detailed

  15. Application of an estimation model to predict future transients at US nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallbert, B.P.; Blackman, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  16. Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira-Asenjo, Núria; Gumí, Tània; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Guimerà, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork also results in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead to personal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play an increasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflict and to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empirically whether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teams using parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data of conflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams, all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find that group-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict in small teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have been traditionally used to model conflict, do not.

  17. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gullo, Charles A.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large. PMID:27374246

  18. The future is in the numbers: the power of predictive analysis in the biomedical educational environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles A. Gullo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Biomedical programs have a potential treasure trove of data they can mine to assist admissions committees in identification of students who are likely to do well and help educational committees in the identification of students who are likely to do poorly on standardized national exams and who may need remediation. In this article, we provide a step-by-step approach that schools can utilize to generate data that are useful when predicting the future performance of current students in any given program. We discuss the use of linear regression analysis as the means of generating that data and highlight some of the limitations. Finally, we lament on how the combination of these institution-specific data sets are not being fully utilized at the national level where these data could greatly assist programs at large.

  19. Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Evolution of bacteria towards resistance to antimicrobial drugs, including multidrug resistance, is unavoidable because it represents a particular aspect of the general evolution of bacteria that is unstoppable. Therefore, the only means of dealing with this situation is to delay the emergence and subsequent dissemination of resistant bacteria or resistance genes. Resistance to antimicrobial drugs in bacteria can result from mutations in housekeeping structural or regulatory genes. Alternatively, resistance can result from the horizontal acquisition of foreign genetic information. The 2 phenomena are not mutually exclusive and can be associated in the emergence and more efficient spread of resistance. This review discusses the predictable future of the relationship between antimicrobial drugs and bacteria. PMID:16318687

  20. Nonlocal response functions for predicting shear flow of strongly inhomogeneous fluids. II. Sinusoidally driven shear and multisinusoidal inhomogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Benjamin A; Glavatskiy, Kirill S; Daivis, Peter J; Todd, B D

    2015-07-01

    We use molecular-dynamics computer simulations to investigate the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure responses of a simple model atomic fluid to transverse and longitudinal external forces. We have previously introduced a response function formalism for describing the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles in an atomic fluid when it is perturbed by a combination of longitudinal and transverse external forces that are independent of time and have a simple sinusoidal spatial variation. In this paper, we extend the application of the previously introduced formalism to consider the case of a longitudinal force composed of multiple sinusoidal components in combination with a single-component sinusoidal transverse force. We find that additional harmonics are excited in the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles due to couplings between the force components. By analyzing the density, strain-rate, and shear-pressure profiles in Fourier space, we are able to evaluate the Fourier coefficients of the response functions, which now have additional components describing the coupling relationships. Having evaluated the Fourier coefficients of the response functions, we are then able to accurately predict the density, velocity, and shear-pressure profiles for fluids that are under the influence of a longitudinal force composed of two or three sinusoidal components combined with a single-component sinusoidal transverse force. We also find that in the case of a multisinusoidal longitudinal force, it is sufficient to include only pairwise couplings between different longitudinal force components. This means that it is unnecessary to include couplings between three or more force components in the case of a longitudinal force composed of many Fourier components, and this paves the way for a highly accurate but tractable treatment of nonlocal transport phenomena in fluids with density and strain-rate inhomogeneities on the molecular length scale.

  1. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  2. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  3. A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

    2017-12-01

    Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

  4. Use of Electrocardiography to Predict Future Development of Hypertension in the General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Murai, Shunsuke; Yamashita, Sumiyo; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2016-04-01

    Cardiac muscle responds to increased afterload by developing hypertrophy. During the early stages of hypertension, the heart can be transiently, but frequently, exposed to increased afterload. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) assessed by electrocardiography (ECG) can be used to predict future development of hypertension.Sokolow-Lyon voltage and Cornell product were calculated using ECG in 5770 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a physical checkup (age 52.7 ± 11.3 years). LVH was defined as a Sokolow-Lyon voltage of >3.8 mV or a Cornell product of >2440 mm × ms. After baseline examination, participants were followed up with the endpoint being the development of hypertension.During the median follow-up period of 1089 days (15,789 person-years), hypertension developed in 1029 participants (65.2/1000 person-years). A Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher incidence of hypertension in participants with LVH than in those without LVH as assessed by Sokolow-Lyon voltage or Cornell product (P < 0.0001 for both). The hazard ratios for incident hypertension in participants with LVH defined by Sokolow-Lyon voltage and Cornell product were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.90, P < 0.01) and 1.34 (95% CI 1.09-1.65, P < 0.01), respectively, after adjustment for possible risk factors. Furthermore, in multivariable Cox hazard analysis, where Sokolow-Lyon voltage and Cornell product were taken as continuous variables, both indices were independent predictors of future hypertension (P < 0.0001).Both Sokolow-Lyon voltage and Cornell product are novel predictors of future development of hypertension in the general population.

  5. Orbitofrontal cortex activity and connectivity predict future depression symptoms in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jingwen; Narayanan, Ananth; Perlman, Greg; Luking, Katherine; DeLorenzo, Christine; Hajcak, Greg; Klein, Daniel N; Kotov, Roman; Mohanty, Aprajita

    2017-10-01

    Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of disability worldwide; however, little is known about pathological mechanisms involved in its development. Research in adolescent depression has focused on reward sensitivity and striatal mechanisms implementing it. The contribution of loss sensitivity to future depression, as well as the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) mechanisms critical for processing losses and rewards, remain unexplored. Furthermore, it is unclear whether OFC functioning interacts with familial history in predicting future depression. In this longitudinal study we recorded functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data while 229 adolescent females with or without parental history of depression completed a monetary gambling task. We examined if OFC blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) response and functional connectivity during loss and win feedback was associated with depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively (9 months later), and whether this relationship was moderated by parental history of depression. Reduced OFC response during loss was associated with higher depression symptoms concurrently and prospectively, even after controlling for concurrent depression, specifically in adolescents with parental history of depression. Similarly, increased OFC-posterior insula connectivity during loss was associated with future depression symptoms but this relationship was not moderated by parental history of depression. This study provides the first evidence for loss-related alterations in OFC functioning and its interaction with familial history of depression as possible mechanisms in the development of depression. While the current fMRI literature has mainly focused on reward, the present findings underscore the need to include prefrontal loss processing in existing developmental models of depression.

  6. Protein tyrosine nitration in plants: Present knowledge, computational prediction and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolbert, Zsuzsanna; Feigl, Gábor; Bordé, Ádám; Molnár, Árpád; Erdei, László

    2017-04-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) and related molecules (reactive nitrogen species) regulate diverse physiological processes mainly through posttranslational modifications such as protein tyrosine nitration (PTN). PTN is a covalent and specific modification of tyrosine (Tyr) residues resulting in altered protein structure and function. In the last decade, great efforts have been made to reveal candidate proteins, target Tyr residues and functional consequences of nitration in plants. This review intends to evaluate the accumulated knowledge about the biochemical mechanism, the structural and functional consequences and the selectivity of plants' protein nitration and also about the decomposition or conversion of nitrated proteins. At the same time, this review emphasizes yet unanswered or uncertain questions such as the reversibility/irreversibility of tyrosine nitration, the involvement of proteasomes in the removal of nitrated proteins or the effect of nitration on Tyr phosphorylation. The different NO producing systems of algae and higher plants raise the possibility of diversely regulated protein nitration. Therefore studying PTN from an evolutionary point of view would enrich our present understanding with novel aspects. Plant proteomic research can be promoted by the application of computational prediction tools such as GPS-YNO 2 and iNitro-Tyr software. Using the reference Arabidopsis proteome, Authors performed in silico analysis of tyrosine nitration in order to characterize plant tyrosine nitroproteome. Nevertheless, based on the common results of the present prediction and previous experiments the most likely nitrated proteins were selected thus recommending candidates for detailed future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicates (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuezhen; Jiang, Chao; Chen, Linghong; Qiu, Shuang; Zhao, Yuxiang; Wang, Tao; Zong, Shixiang

    2017-04-19

    Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China's Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981-2010) and projected climate conditions (2011-2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Under both current and future climate conditions, the model predicted E. fornicates to be mainly distributed in the south of China. Comparing distributions under both climate conditions showed that the area of potential distribution was projected to increase (mainly because of an increase in favourable habitat) and shift to the north. Our results help clarify the potential effect of climate change on the range of this forest pest and provide a reference and guide to facilitate its control in China.

  8. Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

  9. Food reinforcement and parental obesity predict future weight gain in non-obese adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Leonard H; Yokum, Sonja; Feda, Denise M; Stice, Eric

    2014-11-01

    Food reinforcement, the extent to which people are willing to work to earn a preferred snack food, and parental obesity are risk factors for weight gain, but there is no research comparing the predictive effects of these factors for adolescent weight gain. 130 non-obese adolescents (M age=15.2 ± 1.0; M BMI=20.7 ± 2.0; M zBMI=0.16 ± 0.64) at differential risk for weight gain based on parental obesity completed baseline food and money reinforcement tasks, and provided zBMI data over a 2-year follow-up. The number of obese (BMI ≥ 30) parents (p=0.007) and high food reinforcement (p=0.046) were both significant independent predictors of greater zBMI increases, controlling for age, sex, parent education and minority status. Having no obese parents or being low or average in food reinforcement was associated with reductions in zBMI, but those high in food reinforcement showed larger zBMI increases (0.102) than having one obese parent (0.025) but less than having two obese parents (0.177). Food reinforcement and parental obesity independently predict future weight gain among adolescents. It might be fruitful for obesity prevention programs to target both high risk groups. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  11. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists...... of several steps to evaluate lifetime milk production and individual cow somatic cell counts and to finally predict the average production for each day that the cow is alive. Herd recording data from 610 Danish Holstein herds were used to train and test a model predicting milk production (including factors...

  12. Obstetrician-assessed maternal health at pregnancy predicts offspring future health.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debbie A Lawlor

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to examine the association between obstetrician assessment of maternal physical health at the time of pregnancy and offspring cardiovascular disease risk.We examined this association in a birth cohort of 11,106 individuals, with 245,000 person years of follow-up. We were concerned that any associations might be explained by residual confounding, particularly by family socioeconomic position. In order to explore this we used multivariable regression models in which we adjusted for a range of indicators of socioeconomic position and we explored the specificity of the association. Specificity of association was explored by examining associations with other health related outcomes. Maternal physical health was associated with cardiovascular disease: adjusted (socioeconomic position, complications of pregnancy, birthweight and childhood growth at mean age 5 hazard ratio comparing those described as having poor or very poor health at the time of pregnancy to those with good or very good health was 1.55 (95%CI: 1.05, 2.28 for coronary heart disease, 1.91 (95%CI: 0.99, 3.67 for stroke and 1.57 (95%CI: 1.13, 2.18 for either coronary heart disease or stroke. However, this association was not specific. There were strong associations for other outcomes that are known to be related to socioeconomic position (3.61 (95%CI: 1.04, 12.55 for lung cancer and 1.28 (95%CI:1.03, 1.58 for unintentional injury, but not for breast cancer (1.10 (95%CI:0.48, 2.53.These findings demonstrate that a simple assessment of physical health (based on the appearance of eyes, skin, hair and teeth of mothers at the time of pregnancy is a strong indicator of the future health risk of their offspring for common conditions that are associated with poor socioeconomic position and unhealthy behaviours. They do not support a specific biological link between maternal health across her life course and future risk of cardiovascular disease in her offspring.

  13. Changes in accessibility and preferences predict children's future fruit and vegetable intake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bere Elling

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most children eat fewer fruits and vegetables than recommended. To be able to design effective interventions, understanding the aetiology of the behaviour is important. Accessibility and preferences have shown to be strong correlates of fruit and vegetable intake in several cross-sectional studies. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of future fruit and vegetable intake and to explore longitudinal patterns of interactions between accessibility and preferences. Methods Data presented are based on baseline (September 2001 and follow-up (May/June 2002 surveys of 20 control schools in the Norwegian intervention study Fruits and Vegetables Make the Marks. A total of 816 pupils (77% completed both baseline and follow-up questionnaires. The average age of the sample at baseline was 11.8 years. The research instrument assessing potential predictor variables was guided by Social Cognitive Theory, and included Accessibility at home, Accessibility at school, Modelling, Intention, Preferences, Self-Efficacy and Awareness of the 5-a-day recommendations. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Results All independent variables (measured at baseline were significantly correlated to future fruit and vegetable intake (measured at follow-up. When reported fruit and vegetable intake at baseline (past intake was included in this model, the effect of the other independent variables diminished. Together with past intake, the observed change in the independent variables from baseline to follow-up explained 43% of the variance in the reported intake at follow-up. Past intake remained the strongest predictor, but changes in accessibility at home and at school, as well as changes in preferences for fruits and vegetables, also explained significant amounts of the variance in fruit and vegetable intake at follow-up. In addition, baseline accessibility was found to moderate the relationship between change in preferences and change in

  14. Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz JA

    2017-04-01

    false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004–0.25, P=0.001 was significantly related with future falls. Conclusion: The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values. Keywords: aged, balance, cross-cultural adaptation

  15. Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

    1994-12-01

    A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions

  16. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-01-01

    Background Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. Methods and Results We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Conclusions Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. PMID:26224048

  17. Dietary Sodium Consumption Predicts Future Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in the Japanese Normotensive General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takase, Hiroyuki; Sugiura, Tomonori; Kimura, Genjiro; Ohte, Nobuyuki; Dohi, Yasuaki

    2015-07-29

    Although there is a close relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension, the concept that persons with relatively high dietary sodium are at increased risk of developing hypertension compared with those with relatively low dietary sodium has not been studied intensively in a cohort. We conducted an observational study to investigate whether dietary sodium intake predicts future blood pressure and the onset of hypertension in the general population. Individual sodium intake was estimated by calculating 24-hour urinary sodium excretion from spot urine in 4523 normotensive participants who visited our hospital for a health checkup. After a baseline examination, they were followed for a median of 1143 days, with the end point being development of hypertension. During the follow-up period, hypertension developed in 1027 participants (22.7%). The risk of developing hypertension was higher in those with higher rather than lower sodium intake (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.50). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, baseline sodium intake and the yearly change in sodium intake during the follow-up period (as continuous variables) correlated with the incidence of hypertension. Furthermore, both the yearly increase in sodium intake and baseline sodium intake showed significant correlations with the yearly increase in systolic blood pressure in multivariate regression analysis after adjustment for possible risk factors. Both relatively high levels of dietary sodium intake and gradual increases in dietary sodium are associated with future increases in blood pressure and the incidence of hypertension in the Japanese general population. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  18. The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahony, Martin

    2014-02-01

    Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

  19. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  20. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida: models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Langer

    Full Text Available Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  1. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

    2005-01-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  2. Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

    OpenAIRE

    O?Connor, Rory C.; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J. Mark G.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinkin...

  3. A Robust Statistical Model to Predict the Future Value of the Milk Production of Dairy Cows Using Herd Recording Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2017-01-01

    of the future value of a dairy cow requires further detailed knowledge of the costs associated with feed, management practices, production systems, and disease. Here, we present a method to predict the future value of the milk production of a dairy cow based on herd recording data only. The method consists......The future value of an individual dairy cow depends greatly on its projected milk yield. In developed countries with developed dairy industry infrastructures, facilities exist to record individual cow production and reproduction outcomes consistently and accurately. Accurate prediction...... of somatic cell count. We conclude that estimates of future average production can be used on a day-to-day basis to rank cows for culling, or can be implemented in simulation models of within-herd disease spread to make operational decisions, such as culling versus treatment. An advantage of the approach...

  4. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  5. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  6. Current and Future Applications of Biomedical Engineering for Proteomic Profiling: Predictive Biomarkers in Neuro-Traumatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Ganau

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review aims to summarize the impact of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering in defining clinically meaningful predictive biomarkers in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI, a critical worldwide health problem with an estimated 10 billion people affected annually worldwide. Data were collected through a review of the existing English literature performed on Scopus, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, and/or Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Only experimental articles revolving around the management of TBI, in which the role of new devices based on innovative discoveries coming from the field of nanotechnology and biomedical engineering were highlighted, have been included and analyzed in this study. Based on theresults gathered from this research on innovative methods for genomics, epigenomics, and proteomics, their future application in this field seems promising. Despite the outstanding technical challenges of identifying reliable biosignatures for TBI and the mixed nature of studies herein described (single cells proteomics, biofilms, sensors, etc., the clinical implementation of those discoveries will allow us to gain confidence in the use of advanced neuromonitoring modalities with a potential dramatic improvement in the management of those patients.

  7. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  8. Host response to cuckoo song is predicted by the future risk of brood parasitism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleindorfer, Sonia; Evans, Christine; Colombelli-Négrel, Diane; Robertson, Jeremy; Griggio, Matteo; Hoi, Herbert

    2013-05-22

    Risk assessment occurs over different temporal and spatial scales and is selected for when individuals show an adaptive response to a threat. Here, we test if birds respond to the threat of brood parasitism using the acoustical cues of brood parasites in the absence of visual stimuli. We broadcast the playback of song of three brood parasites (Chalcites cuckoo species) and a sympatric non-parasite (striated thornbill, Acanthiza lineata) in the territories of superb fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus) during the peak breeding period and opportunistic breeding period. The three cuckoo species differ in brood parasite prevalence and the probability of detection by the host, which we used to rank the risk of parasitism (high risk, moderate risk, low risk). Host birds showed the strongest response to the threat of cuckoo parasitism in accordance with the risk of parasitism. Resident wrens had many alarm calls and close and rapid approach to the playback speaker that was broadcasting song of the high risk brood parasite (Horsfield's bronze-cuckoo, C. basalis) across the year (peak and opportunistic breeding period), some response to the moderate risk brood parasite (shining bronze-cuckoo, C. lucidus) during the peak breeding period, and the weakest response to the low risk brood parasite (little bronze-cuckoo, C. minutillus). Playback of the familiar control stimulus in wren territories evoked the least response. Host response to the threat of cuckoo parasitism was assessed using vocal cues of the cuckoo and was predicted by the risk of future parasitism.

  9. Prediction and control of coupled-mode flutter in future wind turbine blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres-Sadeghi, Yahya; Currier, Todd; Caracoglia, Luca; Lackner, Matthew; Hollot, Christopher

    2017-11-01

    Coupled-mode flutter can be observed in future offshore wind turbine blades. We have shown this fact by considering various candidate blade designs, in all of which the blade's first torsional mode couples with one of its flapwise modes, resulting in coupled-mode flutter. We have shown how the ratio of these two natural frequencies can result in blades with a critical flutter speed even lower than their rated speed, especially for blades with low torsional natural frequencies. We have also shown how the stochastic nature of the system parameters (as an example, due to uncertainties in the manufacturing process) can significantly influence the onset of instability. We have proposed techniques to predict the onset of these instabilities and the resulting limit-cycle response, and strategies to control them, by either postponing the onset of instability, or lowering the magnitude of the limit-cycle response. The work is supported by the National Science Foundation, Award CBET-1437988 and Collaborative Awards CMMI-1462646 and CMMI-1462774.

  10. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  11. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  12. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  13. Reward circuitry responsivity to food predicts future increases in body mass: moderating effects of DRD2 and DRD4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja; Bohon, Cara; Marti, Nate; Smolen, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    To determine whether responsivity of reward circuitry to food predicts future increases in body mass and whether polymorphisms in DRD2 and DRD4 moderate these relations. The functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm investigated blood oxygen level dependent activation in response to imagined intake of palatable foods, unpalatable foods, and glasses of water shown in pictures. DNA was extracted from saliva samples using standard salting-out and solvent precipitation methods. Forty-four adolescent female high school students ranging from lean to obese. Future increases in body mass index (BMI). Weaker activation of the frontal operculum, lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and striatum in response to imagined intake of palatable foods, versus imagined intake of unpalatable foods or water, predicted future increases in body mass for those with the DRD2 TaqIA A1 allele or the DRD4-7R allele. Data also suggest that for those lacking these alleles, greater responsivity of these food reward regions predicted future increases in body mass. This novel prospective fMRI study indicates that responsivity of reward circuitry to food increases risk for future weight gain, but that genes that impact dopamine signaling capacity moderate the predictive effects, suggesting two qualitatively distinct pathways to unhealthy weight gain based on genetic risk. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  15. Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

  16. Will the future lie in multitude? A critical appraisal of biomarker panel studies on prediction of diabetic kidney disease progression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schutte, Elise; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Benner, Jacqueline; Lutgers, Helen L.; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J.

    Diabetic kidney disease is diagnosed and staged by albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Although albuminuria has strong predictive power for renal function decline, there is still variability in the rate of renal disease progression across individuals that are not fully captured by

  17. Prediction of lake surface temperature using the air2water model: guidelines, challenges, and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature plays a primary role in controlling a wide range of physical, geochemical and ecological processes in lakes, with considerable influences on lake water quality and ecosystem functioning. Being able to reliably predict water temperature is therefore a desired goal, which stimulated the development of models of different type and complexity, ranging from simple regression-based models to more sophisticated process-based numerical models. However, both types of models suffer of some limitations: the first are not able to address some fundamental physical processes as e.g., thermal stratification, while the latter generally require a large amount of data in input, which are not always available. In this work, lake surface temperature is simulated by means of air2water, a hybrid physically-based/statistical model, which is able to provide a robust, predictive understanding of LST dynamics knowing air temperature only. This model showed performances that are comparable with those obtained by using process based models (a root mean square error on the order of 1°C, at daily scale, while retaining the simplicity and parsimony of regression-based models, thus making it a good candidate for long-term applications.The aim of the present work is to provide the reader with useful and practical guidelines for proper use of the air2water model and for critical analysis of results. Two case studies have been selected for the analysis: Lake Superior and Lake Erie. These are clear and emblematic examples of a deep and a shallow temperate lake characterized by markedly different thermal responses to external forcing, thus are ideal for making the results of the analysis the most general and comprehensive. Particular attention is paid to assessing the influence of missing data on model performance, and to evaluating when an observed time series is sufficiently informative for proper model calibration or, conversely, data are too scarce thus

  18. Sensor-derived physical activity parameters can predict future falls in people with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Michael; Hauer, Klaus; Zieschang, Tania; Englert, Stefan; Mohler, Jane; Najafi, Bijan

    2014-01-01

    There is a need for simple clinical tools that can objectively assess the fall risk in people with dementia. Wearable sensors seem to have the potential for fall prediction; however, there has been limited work performed in this important area. To explore the validity of sensor-derived physical activity (PA) parameters for predicting future falls in people with dementia. To compare sensor-based fall risk assessment with conventional fall risk measures. This was a cohort study of people with confirmed dementia discharged from a geriatric rehabilitation ward. PA was quantified using 24-hour motion-sensor monitoring at the beginning of the study. PA parameters (percentage of walking, standing, sitting, and lying; duration of single walking, standing, and sitting bouts) were extracted using specific algorithms. Conventional assessment included performance-based tests (Timed Up and Go Test, Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment, 5-chair stand) and questionnaires (cognition, ADL status, fear of falling, depression, previous faller). Outcome measures were fallers (at least one fall in the 3-month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. 77 people were included in the study (age 81.8 ± 6.3; community-dwelling 88%, institutionalized 12%). Surprisingly, fallers and non-fallers did not differ on any conventional assessment (p = 0.069-0.991), except for 'previous faller' (p = 0.006). Interestingly, several PA parameters discriminated between the groups. The 'walking bout average duration', 'longest walking bout duration' and 'walking bout duration variability' were lower in fallers, compared to non-fallers (p = 0.008-0.027). The 'standing bout average duration' was higher in fallers (p = 0.050). Two variables, 'walking bout average duration' [odds ratio (OR) 0.79, p = 0.012] and 'previous faller' (OR 4.44, p = 0.007) were identified as independent predictors for falls. The OR for a 'walking bout average duration' risk and may have higher diagnostic accuracy in persons with

  19. The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario

  20. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stav Shapira

    Full Text Available A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences.An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard.The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  1. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukwa, M.; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 6, dec (2016), č. článku 38779. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : glacial refugia * prediction of future * Ochrolechia austroamericana Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  2. Do positive MRI findings in the lumbar spine predict future seeking care for low back pain in young teenagers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Per; Leboeuf-Yde, Charlotte; Korsholm, Lars

    in girls. However, multiple testing increases the probability of chance findings. Conclusion: Some positive MRI findings seem to predict future seeking care for LBP. However, when interpreting lumbar spine MRI from young teenagers in a clinical setting, gender variations and the lumbar level...

  3. Comparative Evaluation of the Predictive Performances of Three Different Structural Population Pharmacokinetic Models To Predict Future Voriconazole Concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, Andras; Daroczi, Gergely; Villasurda, Phillip; Dolton, Michael; Nakagaki, Midori; Roberts, Jason A

    2016-11-01

    Bayesian methods for voriconazole therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) have been reported previously, but there are only sparse reports comparing the accuracy and precision of predictions of published models. Furthermore, the comparative accuracy of linear, mixed linear and nonlinear, or entirely nonlinear models may be of high clinical relevance. In this study, models were coded into individually designed optimum dosing strategies (ID-ODS) with voriconazole concentration data analyzed using inverse Bayesian modeling. The data used were from two independent data sets, patients with proven or suspected invasive fungal infections (n = 57) and hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients (n = 10). Observed voriconazole concentrations were predicted whereby for each concentration value, the data available to that point were used to predict that value. The mean prediction error (ME) and mean squared prediction error (MSE) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to measure absolute bias and precision, while ΔME and ΔMSE and their 95% CI were used to measure relative bias and precision, respectively. A total of 519 voriconazole concentrations were analyzed using three models. MEs (95% CI) were 0.09 (-0.02, 0.22), 0.23 (0.04, 0.42), and 0.35 (0.16 to 0.54) while the MSEs (95% CI) were 2.1 (1.03, 3.17), 4.98 (0.90, 9.06), and 4.97 (-0.54 to 10.48) for the linear, mixed, and nonlinear models, respectively. In conclusion, while simulations with the linear model were found to be slightly more accurate and similarly precise, the small difference in accuracy is likely negligible from the clinical point of view, making all three approaches appropriate for use in a voriconazole TDM program. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  4. Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hua; Guo, Jiali; Zhang, Zengxin; Xu, Chong-Yu

    2013-08-01

    Global warming has brought great pressure on the environment and livelihood conditions in Sudan and South Sudan. It is desirable to analyze and predict the change of critical climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, which will provide valuable reference results for future water resources planning and management in the region. The aims of this study are to test the applicability of the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model in downscaling daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures in Sudan and South Sudan and use it to predict future changes of precipitation; Tmin and Tmax for nine stations in Sudan and South Sudan are based on the SRA2 scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results showed that (1) the LARS-WG model produces good performance in downscaling daily precipitation and excellent performance in downscaling Tmax and Tmin in the study region; (2) downscaled precipitation from the prediction of seven GCMs showed great inconsistency in these two regions, which illustrates the great uncertainty in GCMs' results in the regions; (3) predicted precipitation in rainy season JJA (June, July, and August) based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs showed a decreasing trend in the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099 in Sudan; however, an increasing trend can be found in SON (September, October, and November) in the future; (4) precipitation in South Sudan has an increasing trend in most seasons in the future except in MAM (March, April, and May) season in 2011-2030; and (5) predictions from seven GCMs showed a similar and continuous increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin in all three future periods, which will bring severe negative influence on improving livelihoods and reducing poverty in Sudan and South Sudan.

  5. The Relevance of the Informational Content of Book-Tax Differences for Predicting Future Income: Evidence from Latin American Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Vieira Cunha Marques

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate whether the different types of book-tax differences are useful for predicting the future income of publicly traded companies in five Latin American countries. This is possible since these differences convey information about transitory components of income, which can be used by investors for predicting future income. However, little is known about the relationship between tax variables and companies' future results. The sample analyzed here is composed of 580 publicly traded companies from five Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru with information available in the Economatica(r database covering 2002 to 2013. In terms of methodology, regressions are employed in order to find a connection between the different types (total, permanent, temporary, and the negative and positive variations of book-tax differences and companies' current and future earnings per share, as well as some control variables suggested by previous literature. The model's coefficients were estimated through panel data techniques: fixed effects. The results obtained suggest that the information gathered in the different types of book-tax differences (total, permanent, temporary, positive and negative variations is relevant in predicting future income. Total, permanent and temporary differences contribute to the uncertainty in future income prediction, given that results are more transitory and less persistent in years with higher book-tax differences. Positive and negative variations, on the other hand, attribute higher income in coming years to greater variations in book-tax differences, representing increased timeliness of results and a reduction in off balance sheet funding for the publicly traded companies from these countries.

  6. Body image dissatisfaction in pregnant and non-pregnant females is strongly predicted by immune activation and mucosa-derived activation of the tryptophan catabolite (TRYCAT) pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roomruangwong, Chutima; Kanchanatawan, Buranee; Carvalho, André F; Sirivichayakul, Sunee; Duleu, Sebastien; Geffard, Michel; Maes, Michael

    2018-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to delineate the associations between body image dissatisfaction in pregnant women and immune-inflammatory biomarkers, i.e., C-reactive protein (CRP), zinc and IgA/IgM responses to tryptophan and tryptophan catabolites (TRYCATs). We assessed 49 pregnant and 24 non-pregnant females and assessed Body Image Satisfaction (BIS) scores at the end of term (T1), and 2-4 days (T2) and 4-6 weeks (T3) after delivery. Subjects were divided in those with a lowered BIS score (≤ 3) versus those with a higher score. Logistic regression analysis showed that a lowered T1 BIS score was predicted by CRP levels and IgA responses to tryptophan (negative) and TRYCATs (positive), perinatal depression, body mass index (BMI) and age. The sum of quinolinic acid, kynurenine, 3-OH-kynurenine and 3-OH-anthranilic acid (reflecting brain quinolinic acid contents) was the single best predictor. In addition, a large part of the variance in the T1, T2 and T3 BIS scores was explained by IgA responses to tryptophan and TRYCATs, especially quinolinic acid. Body image dissatisfaction is strongly associated with inflammation and mucosa-derived IDO activation independently from depression, pregnancy, BMI and age. IgA responses to peripheral TRYCATs, which determine brain quinolinic acid concentrations, also predict body image dissatisfaction.

  7. Nuclear power can reduce emissions and maintain a strong economy: Rating Australia’s optimal future electricity-generation mix by technologies and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is essential for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions at lower cost. • Physical and economic limits of renewables at high penetrations hamper their growth. • Large-scale fossil fuels are required if nuclear power is not permitted in Australia. • Well-balanced information is a prerequisite for defining an optimal future mix. - Abstract: Legal barriers currently prohibit nuclear power for electricity generation in Australia. For this reason, published future electricity scenarios aimed at policy makers for this country have not seriously considered a full mix of energy options. Here we addressed this deficiency by comparing the life-cycle sustainability of published scenarios using multi-criteria decision-making analysis, and modeling the optimized future electricity mix using a genetic algorithm. The published ‘CSIRO e-future’ scenario under its default condition (excluding nuclear) has the largest aggregate negative environmental and economic outcomes (score = 4.51 out of 8), followed by the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 100% renewable energy scenario (4.16) and the Greenpeace scenario (3.97). The e-future projection with maximum nuclear-power penetration allowed yields the lowest negative impacts (1.46). After modeling possible future electricity mixes including or excluding nuclear power, the weighted criteria recommended an optimized scenario mix where nuclear power generated >40% of total electricity. The life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of the optimization scenarios including nuclear power were <27 kg CO 2 -e MW h −1 in 2050, which achieves the IPCC’s target of 50–150 kg CO 2 -e MW h −1 . Our analyses demonstrate clearly that nuclear power is an effective and logical option for the environmental and economic sustainability of a future electricity network in Australia

  8. Prediction of Human Drug Targets and Their Interactions Using Machine Learning Methods: Current and Future Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Abhigyan; Kumari, Priyanka; Chaube, Radha

    2018-01-01

    Identification of drug targets and drug target interactions are important steps in the drug-discovery pipeline. Successful computational prediction methods can reduce the cost and time demanded by the experimental methods. Knowledge of putative drug targets and their interactions can be very useful for drug repurposing. Supervised machine learning methods have been very useful in drug target prediction and in prediction of drug target interactions. Here, we describe the details for developing prediction models using supervised learning techniques for human drug target prediction and their interactions.

  9. Midregional-proAtrial Natriuretic Peptide and High Sensitive Troponin T Strongly Predict Adverse Outcome in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Repair of Mitral Valve Regurgitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochen Wöhrle

    Full Text Available It is not known whether biomarkers of hemodynamic stress, myocardial necrosis, and renal function might predict adverse outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous repair of severe mitral valve insufficiency. Thus, we aimed to assess the predictive value of various established and emerging biomarkers for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE in these patients.Thirty-four patients with symptomatic severe mitral valve insufficiency with a mean STS-Score for mortality of 12.6% and a mean logistic EuroSCORE of 19.7% undergoing MitraClip therapy were prospectively included in this study. Plasma concentrations of mid regional-proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP, Cystatin C, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP, high-sensitive troponin T (hsTnT, N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, galectin-3, and soluble ST-2 (interleukin 1 receptor-like 1 were measured directly before procedure. MACE was defined as cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF.During a median follow-up of 211 days (interquartile range 133 to 333 days, 9 patients (26.5% experienced MACE (death: 7 patients, rehospitalization for HF: 2 patients. Thirty day MACE-rate was 5.9% (death: 2 patients, no rehospitalization for HF. Baseline concentrations of hsTnT (Median 92.6 vs 25.2 ng/L, NT-proBNP (Median 11251 vs 1974 pg/mL and MR-proANP (Median 755.6 vs 318.3 pmol/L, all p<0.001 were clearly higher in those experiencing an event vs event-free patients, while other clinical variables including STS-Score and logistic EuroSCORE did not differ significantly. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, NT-proBNP and in particular hsTnT and MR-proANP above the median discriminated between those experiencing an event vs event-free patients. This was further corroborated by C-statistics where areas under the ROC curve for prediction of MACE using the respective median values were 0.960 for MR-proANP, 0.907 for NT-proBNP, and 0.822 for hsTnT.MR-proANP and hsTnT strongly

  10. THE SYSTEMATICS OF STRONG LENS MODELING QUANTIFIED: THE EFFECTS OF CONSTRAINT SELECTION AND REDSHIFT INFORMATION ON MAGNIFICATION, MASS, AND MULTIPLE IMAGE PREDICTABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Traci L.; Sharon, Keren, E-mail: tljohn@umich.edu [University of Michigan, Department of Astronomy, 1085 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1107 (United States)

    2016-11-20

    Until now, systematic errors in strong gravitational lens modeling have been acknowledged but have never been fully quantified. Here, we launch an investigation into the systematics induced by constraint selection. We model the simulated cluster Ares 362 times using random selections of image systems with and without spectroscopic redshifts and quantify the systematics using several diagnostics: image predictability, accuracy of model-predicted redshifts, enclosed mass, and magnification. We find that for models with >15 image systems, the image plane rms does not decrease significantly when more systems are added; however, the rms values quoted in the literature may be misleading as to the ability of a model to predict new multiple images. The mass is well constrained near the Einstein radius in all cases, and systematic error drops to <2% for models using >10 image systems. Magnification errors are smallest along the straight portions of the critical curve, and the value of the magnification is systematically lower near curved portions. For >15 systems, the systematic error on magnification is ∼2%. We report no trend in magnification error with the fraction of spectroscopic image systems when selecting constraints at random; however, when using the same selection of constraints, increasing this fraction up to ∼0.5 will increase model accuracy. The results suggest that the selection of constraints, rather than quantity alone, determines the accuracy of the magnification. We note that spectroscopic follow-up of at least a few image systems is crucial because models without any spectroscopic redshifts are inaccurate across all of our diagnostics.

  11. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  12. Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

    2011-10-01

    Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (Pchoice of a larger portion size of vegetables (Pfood memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Future rainfall variability in Indonesia under different ENSO and IOD composites based on decadal predictions of CMIP5 datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilhaqqi Qalbi, Harisa; Faqih, Akhmad; Hidayat, Rahmat

    2017-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are amongst important climate drivers that play a significant role in driving rainfall variability in Indonesia, especially on inter-annual timescales. The phenomena are suggested to have an association with interdecadal climate variability through the modulation of their oscillations. This study aims to analyse the characteristics of future rainfall variability in Indonesia during different condition of ENSO and IOD events based on decadal predictions of near-term climate change CMIP5 GCM data outputs up to year 2035. Monthly data of global rainfall data with 5x5 km grid resolutions of CHIRPS dataset is used in this study to represent historical rainfall variability as well to serve as a reference for future rainfall predictions. The current and future rainfall and sea surface temperature data have been bias corrected before performing the analysis. Given the comparison between rainfall composites during El-Nino and positive IOD events, the study showed that the future rainfall conditions in Indonesia will become drier than the historical condition resulted from the same composite approach. In general, this study showed the Indonesian rainfall variability in the future is expected to respond differently to a different combination of ENSO and IOD conditions.

  14. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, J.E.; Gijsenberg, M.J.; Verhoef, P.C.

    2017-01-01

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  15. No Future Without the Past? Predicting Churn in the Face of Customer Privacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holtrop, Niels; Wieringa, Jakob; Gijsenberg, Maarten; Verhoef, Pieter C

    For customer-centric firms, churn prediction plays a central role in churn management programs. Methodological advances have emphasized the use of customer panel data to model the dynamic evolution of a customer base to improve churn predictions. However, pressure from policy makers and the public

  16. Using repeated measures of sleep disturbances to predict future diagnosis-specific work disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salo, Paula; Vahtera, Jussi; Hall, Martica

    2012-01-01

    It is unknown whether or not measuring sleep disturbances repeatedly, rather than at only one point in time, improves prediction of work disability.......It is unknown whether or not measuring sleep disturbances repeatedly, rather than at only one point in time, improves prediction of work disability....

  17. Carotid plaque thickness and carotid plaque burden predict future cardiovascular events in asymptomatic adult Americans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Sartori, Samantha; Sandholt, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    Introduction: Prediction of cardiovascular events improves using imaging, i.e. coronary calcium score and ultrasound assessment of carotid plaque. This study analysed the predictive value of two ultrasound measures of carotid plaque size: carotid plaque thickness and carotid and intima-media thic...

  18. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  19. Abortion: Strong's counterexamples fail

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Nucci, Ezio

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows that the counterexamples proposed by Strong in 2008 in the Journal of Medical Ethics to Marquis's argument against abortion fail. Strong's basic idea is that there are cases--for example, terminally ill patients--where killing an adult human being is prima facie seriously morally......'s scenarios have some valuable future or admitted that killing them is not seriously morally wrong. Finally, if "valuable future" is interpreted as referring to objective standards, one ends up with implausible and unpalatable moral claims....

  20. THE U.S. NATIONAL INTEREST REDEFINITION AND THE FUTURE OF ITS LEADERSHIP IN CRITICAL REGIONS. STRONG AND SUSTAINABLE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iñigo ARBIOL OÑATE

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last half of the 20th century, the United States provided a strong centripetal leadership that brought the country to form an economy that remains the bedrock of the global financial system. America’s military superiority remains unrivaled. While far from perfect, the U.S. has the oldest democratic constitutional regime, as well as strong institutions and rule of law to accompany it, as Americans continue to enjoy an unmatched quality of life. In general the U.S. enjoys still a privileged position in the world today. For the last one hundred years, American foreign policy has rested on a commitment to use its power. Nevertheless, many criticize that over the last two decades, the U.S. has scaled down its presence, ambitions and promises in the world. Is the U.S. abnegating its leadership? Are U.S. national interests changing and refocusing towards home affairs? Or will the 21st century, due to fragile alternative powers (EU, China, Russia, … be again an American century?

  1. Exploiting the Past and the Future in Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Frasconi, P

    1999-01-01

    predictions based on variable ranges of dependencies. These architectures extend recurrent neural networks, introducing non-causal bidirectional dynamics to capture both upstream and downstream information. The prediction algorithm is completed by the use of mixtures of estimators that leverage evolutionary......Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alpha-helix, beta-sheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three-dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network...

  2. It is hard to predict the future: the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, G A

    2006-04-01

    This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future.

  3. Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

  4. Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miotto, Riccardo; Li, Li; Kidd, Brian A.; Dudley, Joel T.

    2016-05-01

    Secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) promises to advance clinical research and better inform clinical decision making. Challenges in summarizing and representing patient data prevent widespread practice of predictive modeling using EHRs. Here we present a novel unsupervised deep feature learning method to derive a general-purpose patient representation from EHR data that facilitates clinical predictive modeling. In particular, a three-layer stack of denoising autoencoders was used to capture hierarchical regularities and dependencies in the aggregated EHRs of about 700,000 patients from the Mount Sinai data warehouse. The result is a representation we name “deep patient”. We evaluated this representation as broadly predictive of health states by assessing the probability of patients to develop various diseases. We performed evaluation using 76,214 test patients comprising 78 diseases from diverse clinical domains and temporal windows. Our results significantly outperformed those achieved using representations based on raw EHR data and alternative feature learning strategies. Prediction performance for severe diabetes, schizophrenia, and various cancers were among the top performing. These findings indicate that deep learning applied to EHRs can derive patient representations that offer improved clinical predictions, and could provide a machine learning framework for augmenting clinical decision systems.

  5. Subjective memory complaints in general practice predicts future dementia: a 4-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldorff, Frans Boch; Vogel, Asmus Mejling; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2012-01-01

    Many older patients in general practice have subjective memory complaints (SMC); however, not all share this information with their general practitioner (GP). The association between SMC and future cognitive decline or dementia is not clear, especially in a general practice population. The aim...

  6. Comparison of strategies for model predictive control for home heating in future energy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogler-Finck, Pierre Jacques Camille; Popovski, Petar; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2017-01-01

    using historical weather and power system data from Denmark. Trade-offs between energy consumption, comfort and incurred CO2 emissions depending on the chosen objective function are quantified, highlighting the need to carefully select the strategy used in future design and implementation, rather than...... simply operating energy or SPOT price optimisation....

  7. Predicting Gas Production from future gas discoveries in the Netherlands: Quantity, location, timing, quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutgert, J.; Mijnlieff, H.; Breunese, J.

    2005-01-01

    Recent policy and market developments have raised the question not only as to how much gas remains to be discovered in the Netherlands but also where and when it will be produced and of what quality. These questions are addressed by compiling a 'firm futures' database, estimating the 'potential

  8. The Crystal Ball Project: Predicting the Future of Composition and the Preparation of Composition Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Crag; Ericsson, Patricia Freitag

    2014-01-01

    In this article the authors peer into current elementary classrooms and college composition courses in 2020 to envision what K-12 and composition curricula can do now to ensure today's students are prepared for those future composition classes. The authors interviewed veteran (20 or more years) K-6 teachers in a small university town and…

  9. Use of Social Emotional Learning Skills to Predict Future Academic Success and Progress toward Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Alan; Solberg, V. Scott; de Baca, Christine; Gore, Taryn Hargrove

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the degree to which a range of social emotional learning skills--academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, social connections, importance of school, and managing psychological and emotional distress and academic stress--could be used as an indicator of future academic outcomes. Using a sample of 4,797 from a large urban…

  10. Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

  11. The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale M.; Gyawali, Rabi

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

  12. Future time perspective and awareness of age-related change: Examining their role in predicting psychological well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    This study examined how 2 distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime-future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC)-are associated with another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging, and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the United States and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40-98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Future Time Perspective and Awareness of Age-Related Change: Examining their Role in Predicting Psychological Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Allyson; Gabrian, Martina; Wahl, Hans-Werner; Diehl, Manfred

    2016-01-01

    This study examined how two distinct facets of perceived personal lifetime – future time perspective (FTP) and awareness of age-related change (AARC) – are associated with one another, and how they may interact to predict psychological well-being. To better understand associations among subjective perceptions of lifetime, aging and well-being, we tested a series of models to investigate questions of directionality, indirect effects, and conditional processes among FTP, AARC-Gains, AARC-Losses, and psychological well-being. In all models, we tested for differences between middle-aged and older adults, and between adults from the U.S. and Germany. Analyses were conducted within a structural equation modeling framework on a cross-national, 2.5-year longitudinal sample of 537 community-residing adults (age 40–98 years). Awareness of age-related losses (AARC-Losses) at Time 1 predicted FTP at Time 2, but FTP did not predict AARC-Gains or AARC-Losses. Furthermore, future time perspective mediated the association between AARC-Losses and well-being. Moderation analyses revealed a buffering effect of awareness of age-related gains (AARC-Gains) in which perceptions of more age-related gains diminished the negative effect of a limited future time perspective on well-being. Effects were robust across age groups and countries. Taken together, these findings suggest that perceived age-related loss experiences may sensitize individuals to perceive a more limited future lifetime which may then lead to lower psychological well-being. In contrast, perceived age-related gains may function as a resource to preserve psychological well-being, in particular when time is perceived as running out. PMID:27243764

  14. Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

    2018-03-01

    To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  15. Reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance predicts future falls in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carty, Christopher P; Cronin, Neil J; Nicholson, Deanne; Lichtwark, Glen A; Mills, Peter M; Kerr, Graham; Cresswell, Andrew G; Barrett, Rod S

    2015-01-01

    a fall occurs when an individual experiences a loss of balance from which they are unable to recover. Assessment of balance recovery ability in older adults may therefore help to identify individuals at risk of falls. The purpose of this 12-month prospective study was to assess whether the ability to recover from a forward loss of balance with a single step across a range of lean magnitudes was predictive of falls. two hundred and one community-dwelling older adults, aged 65-90 years, underwent baseline testing of sensori-motor function and balance recovery ability followed by 12-month prospective falls evaluation. Balance recovery ability was defined by whether participants required either single or multiple steps to recover from forward loss of balance from three lean magnitudes, as well as the maximum lean magnitude participants could recover from with a single step. forty-four (22%) participants experienced one or more falls during the follow-up period. Maximal recoverable lean magnitude and use of multiple steps to recover at the 15% body weight (BW) and 25%BW lean magnitudes significantly predicted a future fall (odds ratios 1.08-1.26). The Physiological Profile Assessment, an established tool that assesses variety of sensori-motor aspects of falls risk, was also predictive of falls (Odds ratios 1.22 and 1.27, respectively), whereas age, sex, postural sway and timed up and go were not predictive. reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance and physiological profile assessment are independent predictors of a future fall in community-dwelling older adults. Exercise interventions designed to improve reactive stepping behaviour may protect against future falls. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Genome-based prediction of common diseases: Methodological considerations for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C.J.W. Janssens (Cécile); P. Tikka-Kleemola (Päivi)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThe translation of emerging genomic knowledge into public health and clinical care is one of the major challenges for the coming decades. At the moment, genome-based prediction of common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, is still not informative. Our

  17. Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Within the climate change mitigation framework, prediction of deforestation is essential for the appli- cation of the United Nations Framework Conven- tion on the Climate Change REDD+ Programme, which aims at reducing emissions from deforesta- tion and forest degradation (Olander et al. 2008). The rate of forest loss ...

  18. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  19. The role of affective instability and impulsivity in predicting future BPD features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tragesser, Sarah L; Solhan, Marika; Schwartz-Mette, Rebecca; Trull, Timothy J

    2007-12-01

    Models of borderline personality disorder (BPD) suggest that extreme levels of affective instability/emotional dysregulation, impulsivity, or the combination of these two traits account for the symptoms characteristic of BPD. The present study utilized longitudinal data to evaluate the ability of Personality Assessment Inventory-Borderline Features (PAI-BOR; Morey, 1991) subscale scores to predict BPD features two years later as a test of these models of BPD. Participants were 156 male and 194 female young adults who completed the PAI-BOR at age 18 and again two years later. Three models were compared: (a) Wave 1 affective instability scores predicting Wave 2 BPD features (AI model); (b) Wave 1 self-harm/impulsivity scores predicting Wave 2 BPD features (IMP model); and (c) both Wave 1 affective instability and self-harm/impulsivity scores predicting Wave 2 BPD features (AI-IMP model), all controlling for stabilities and within-time covariances. Results indicated that the AI model provided the best fit to the data, and improved model fit over a baseline stabilities model and the other models tested. These results are consistent with Linehan's theory (1993) that emotional dysregulation drives the other BPD symptoms.

  20. The current and future use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Vlaming (Ronald); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge

  1. The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vlaming, R.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for

  2. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  3. Implicit Alcohol Approach and Avoidance Tendencies Predict Future Drinking in Problem Drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Braunstein, Laura; Kuerbis, Alexis; Ochsner, Kevin; Morgenstern, Jon

    2016-09-01

    Addiction is characterized by compulsive drug seeking and substance use, yet many individuals break free of these patterns and change their behavior. Traditional candidate predictors of behavior change/persistence rely on self-reports of factors such as readiness to change. However, explicit measures only characterize top-down influences on behavior. The incentive sensitization model of addition suggests that more implicit, automatic processes, such as the tendency to approach substance cues, play a major role in behavior. We examined implicit alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies using a reaction time (RT) task in a sample of problem drinkers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) seeking to reduce heavy drinking. We measured alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies at baseline and at outcome, 12 weeks later. We asked whether alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies (i) changed over time, (ii) related to current drinking, and (iii) predicted changes in drinking from baseline to outcome. Approach and avoidance tendencies did not significantly change over time, nor did they correlate with current drinking, but these tendencies at baseline did predict drinking weeks later. Faster alcohol approach was associated with greater overall drinking at outcome, and faster alcohol avoidance predicted fewer drinking days per week at outcome. Exploratory analyses examined the relationship between approach and avoidance and traditional explicit measures including appraisals of alcohol and motivation to change. Implicit approach tendencies were largely distinct from explicit measures, and approach and avoidance tendencies explained unique variance in outcome drinking. The current findings suggest that implicit alcohol approach and avoidance tendencies assessed via a simple reaction time task can predict relative changes in drinking weeks later. Given that many explicit measures typically used in treatment studies fail to predict who will change, approach and avoidance tendencies

  4. Lateral balance factors predict future falls in community-living older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilliard, Marjorie Johnson; Martinez, Katherine M; Janssen, Imke; Edwards, Beatrice; Mille, Marie-Laure; Zhang, Yunhui; Rogers, Mark W

    2008-09-01

    To prospectively determine the capacity of measures of mediolateral (ML) protective stepping performance, maximum hip abduction torque, and trunk mobility, in order to predict the risk of falls among community-living older people. Cross-sectional study. A balance and falls research laboratory. Medically screened and functionally independent community-living older adult volunteers (N=51). Not applicable. Measures included: (1) protective stepping responses: percentage of trials with multiple balance recovery steps and sidestep/crossover step recovery patterns, and first step length following motor-driven waist-pull perturbations of ML standing balance; (2) hip abduction strength and axial mobility: (3) peak isokinetic hip abduction joint torque and trunk functional axial rotation (FAR) range of motion; and (4) fall incidence: monthly mail-in reporting of fall occurrences with follow-up contact for 1 year post-testing. One- and 2-variable logistic regression analysis models determined which single and combined measures optimally predicted fall status. The single variable model with the strongest predictive value for falls was the use of multiple steps in all trials (100% multiple steps) (odds ratio, 6.2; P=.005). Two-variable models, including 100% multiple steps and either hip abduction torque or FAR variables, significantly improved fall prediction over 100% multiple steps alone. The hip abduction and FAR logistic regression optimally predicted fall status. The findings identify new predictor variables for risk of falling that underscore the importance of dynamic balance recovery performance through ML stepping in relation to neuromusculoskeletal factors contributing to lateral balance stability. The results also highlight focused risk factors for falling that are amenable to clinical interventions for enhancing lateral balance function and preventing falls.

  5. Do PCL-R scores from state or defense experts best predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccaccini, Marcus T; Turner, Darrel B; Murrie, Daniel C; Rufino, Katrina A

    2012-06-01

    In a recent study of sex offender civil commitment proceedings, Murrie et al. (Psychol Public Policy Law 15:19-53, 2009) found that state-retained experts consistently assigned higher PCL-R total scores than defense-retained experts for the same offenders (Cohen's d > .83). This finding raises an important question about the validity of these discrepant scores: Which type of score, state or defense evaluator, provides the most useful information about risk? We examined the ability of PCL-R total scores from state and defense evaluators to predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders (N = 38). For comparison, we also examined predictive validity when two state experts evaluated the same offender (N = 32). Agreement between evaluators was low for cases with opposing experts (ICCA,1 = .43 to .52) and for cases with two state experts (ICCA,1 = .40). Nevertheless, scores from state and defense experts demonstrated similar levels of predictive validity (AUC values in the .70 range), although scores from different types of state evaluators (corrections-contracted vs. prosecution-retained) did not. The finding of mean differences between opposing evaluator scores, but similar levels of predictive validity, suggests that scores from opposing experts in SVP cases may need to be interpreted differently depending on who assigned them. Findings have important implications for understanding how rater disagreement may relate to predictive validity.

  6. Using historical remote sensing image to predict future land use in Panjin city, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Jiujun

    2017-08-01

    The study discussed the feasibility of CA-Markov model in Panjin to simulated future land use. Results showed that the model could simulated the land use in Panjin well. And in the simulation in Panjin for 2018, human activities would affect the land use obivously, with the increase of all artificial land use area and the reduction of natural wetland such as reed marsh and suaeda heteroptera area. The protection for natural land use should be intensified to avoid the ecosystem worsening.

  7. The histological quantification of alpha-smooth muscle actin predicts future graft fibrosis in pediatric liver transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varma, Sharat; Stéphenne, Xavier; Komuta, Mina; Bouzin, Caroline; Ambroise, Jerome; Smets, Françoise; Reding, Raymond; Sokal, Etienne M

    2017-02-01

    Activated hepatic stellate cells express cytoplasmic ASMA prior to secreting collagen and consequent liver fibrosis. We hypothesized that quantifying ASMA could predict severity of future fibrosis after LT. For this, 32 pairs of protocol biopsies, that is, "baseline" and "follow-up" biopsies taken at 1- to 2-year intervals from 18 stable pediatric LT recipients, transplanted between 2006 and 2012 were selected. Morphometric quantification of "ASMA-positive area percentage" was performed on the baseline biopsy. Histological and fibrosis assessment using Metavir and LAFSc was performed on all biopsies. The difference of fibrosis severity between the "baseline" and "follow-up" was termed "prospective change in fibrosis." Significant association was seen between extent of ASMA positivity on baseline biopsy and "prospective change in fibrosis" using Metavir (P=.02), cumulative LAFSc (P=.02), and portal LAFSc (P=.01) values. ASMA-positive area percentage >1.05 predicted increased fibrosis on next biopsy with 90.0% specificity. Additionally, an association was observed between extent of ASMA positivity and concomitant ductular reaction (P=.06), but not with histological inflammation in the portal tract or lobular area. Hence, ASMA quantification can predict the future course of fibrosis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Multivariate Radiological-Based Models for the Prediction of Future Knee Pain: Data from the OAI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge I. Galván-Tejada

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the potential of X-ray based multivariate prognostic models to predict the onset of chronic knee pain is presented. Using X-rays quantitative image assessments of joint-space-width (JSW and paired semiquantitative central X-ray scores from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI, a case-control study is presented. The pain assessments of the right knee at the baseline and the 60-month visits were used to screen for case/control subjects. Scores were analyzed at the time of pain incidence (T-0, the year prior incidence (T-1, and two years before pain incidence (T-2. Multivariate models were created by a cross validated elastic-net regularized generalized linear models feature selection tool. Univariate differences between cases and controls were reported by AUC, C-statistics, and ODDs ratios. Univariate analysis indicated that the medial osteophytes were significantly more prevalent in cases than controls: C-stat 0.62, 0.62, and 0.61, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. The multivariate JSW models significantly predicted pain: AUC = 0.695, 0.623, and 0.620, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Semiquantitative multivariate models predicted paint with C-stat = 0.671, 0.648, and 0.645 at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Multivariate models derived from plain X-ray radiography assessments may be used to predict subjects that are at risk of developing knee pain.

  9. Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Alba-Tercedor

    Full Text Available Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96% inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.

  10. BRCA1, BRCA2 mutations — future of predictive oncology: a review of literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Dmitriev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, it has been demonstrated that breast cancer arising in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers differs in its morphological, immuno- phenotypic and molecular characteristics from sporadic breast cancer. In addition to improving our understanding of the biology of hereditary breast cancer, the recognition of these differences could also be used to predict BRCA mutation status in a given group of patients.

  11. Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Susan; Kidokoro, Toru; Karamchandani, Prakash; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

  12. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  13. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  14. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  15. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  16. Changes in mangrove species assemblages and future prediction of the Bangladesh Sundarbans using Markov chain model and cellular automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata

    2015-06-01

    The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.

  17. Bayesian framework for prediction of future number of failures from a single group of units in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrahimi, Nader

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers prediction of unknown number of failures in a future inspection of a group of in-service units based on number of failures observed from an earlier inspection. We develop a flexible Bayesian model and calculate Bayesian estimator for this unknown number and other quantities of interest. The paper also includes an illustration of our method in an example about heat exchanger. A main advantage of our approach is in its nonparametric nature. By nonparametric here we simply mean that no assumption is required about the failure time distribution of a unit

  18. Quantitative characterization of myocardial infarction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts future cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauly John M

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR can provide quantitative data of the myocardial tissue utilizing high spatial and temporal resolution along with exquisite tissue contrast. Previous studies have correlated myocardial scar tissue with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia. This study was conducted to evaluate whether characterization of myocardial infarction by CMR can predict cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM. Results We consecutively studied 86 patients with ICM (LVEF Conclusion Quantification of the scar volume and scar percentage by CMR is superior to LVEDV, LVESV, and LVEF in prognosticating the future likelihood of the development of cardiovascular events in patients with ICM.

  19. Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005

  20. Positron Emission Tomographic Imaging of the Serotonergic System and Prediction of Risk and Lethality of Future Suicidal Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oquendo, Maria A; Galfalvy, Hanga; Sullivan, Gregory M; Miller, Jeffrey M; Milak, Matthew M; Sublette, M Elizabeth; Cisneros-Trujillo, Sebastian; Burke, Ainsley K; Parsey, Ramin V; Mann, J John

    2016-10-01

    Biomarkers that predict suicidal behavior, especially highly lethal behavior, are urgently needed. In cross-sectional studies, individuals with depression who attempt suicide have lower midbrain serotonin transporter binding potential compared with those who do not attempt suicide, and higher serotonin1A binding potential in the raphe nuclei (RN) is associated with greater lethality of past suicide attempts and suicidal intent and ideation. To determine whether serotonin transporter binding potential in the lower midbrain predicts future suicide attempts and whether higher RN serotonin1A binding potential predicts future suicidal ideation and intent and lethality of future suicide attempts. In this prospective 2-year observational study, a well-characterized cohort of 100 patients presenting for treatment of a major depressive episode of at least moderate severity underwent positron emission tomography using carbon 11-labeled N-(2-(1-(4-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl)ethyl))-N-(2-pyridyl)-cyclohexanecarboxamide ([11C]WAY-100635), a serotonin1A antagonist; a subset of 50 patients also underwent imaging with carbon 11-labeled 3-amino-4-(2-dimethylaminomethyl-phenylsulfanyl)- benzonitrile ([11C]DASB), a serotonin transporter radioligand. Imaging was performed at Columbia University Medical Center from May 3, 1999, to March 11, 2008. Follow-up was completed on May 28, 2010, and data were analyzed from August 1, 2013, to March 1, 2016. Patients were treated naturalistically in the community and followed up for 2 years with documentation of suicidal behavior, its lethality, and suicidal ideation and intent. Suicide attempt or suicide. Of the 100 patients undergoing follow-up for more than 2 years (39 men; 61 women; mean [SD] age, 40.2 [11.2] years), 15 made suicide attempts, including 2 who died by suicide. Higher RN serotonin1A binding potential predicted more suicidal ideation at 3 (b = 0.02; t = 3.45; P = .001) and 12 (b = 0.02; t = 3.63; P

  1. Does Knowing Hurt? Perceiving Oneself as Overweight Predicts Future Physical Health and Well-Being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Michael; Robinson, Eric; Sutin, Angelina R

    2017-07-01

    Identifying oneself as being overweight may be associated with adverse health outcomes, yet prospective tests of this possibility are lacking. Over 7 years, we examined associations between perceptions of being overweight and subsequent health in a sample of 3,582 U.S. adults. Perceiving oneself as being overweight predicted longitudinal declines in subjective health ( d = -0.22, p overweight were accurate or inaccurate. This research highlights the possibility that identifying oneself as overweight may act independently of body mass index to contribute to unhealthy profiles of physiological functioning and impaired health over time. These findings underscore the importance of evaluating whether weight-feedback interventions may have unforeseen adverse consequences.

  2. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  3. Evidence on existing caries risk assessment systems: are they predictive of future caries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellez, M; Gomez, J; Pretty, I; Ellwood, R; Ismail, A I

    2013-02-01

    To critically appraise evidence for the prediction of caries using four caries risk assessment (CRA) systems/guidelines (Cariogram, Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA), American Dental Association (ADA), and American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD)). This review focused on prospective cohort studies or randomized controlled trials. A systematic search strategy was developed to locate papers published in Medline Ovid and Cochrane databases. The search identified 539 scientific reports, and after title and abstract review, 137 were selected for full review and 14 met the following inclusion criteria: (i) used as validating criterion caries incidence/increment, (ii) involved human subjects and natural carious lesions, and (iii) published in peer-reviewed journals. In addition, papers were excluded if they met one or more of the following criteria: (i) incomplete description of sample selection, outcomes, or small sample size and (ii) not meeting the criteria for best evidence under the prognosis category of the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. There are wide variations among the systems in terms of definitions of caries risk categories, type and number of risk factors/markers, and disease indicators. The Cariogram combined sensitivity and specificity for predicting caries in permanent dentition ranges from 110 to 139 and is the only system for which prospective studies have been conducted to assess its validity. The Cariogram had limited prediction utility in preschool children, and a moderate to good performance for sorting out elderly individuals into caries risk groups. One retrospective analysis on CAMBRA's CRA reported higher incidence of cavitated lesions among those assessed as extreme-risk patients when compared with those at low risk. The evidence on the validity for existing systems for CRA is limited. It is unknown if the identification of high-risk individuals can lead to more effective long-term patient management that prevents

  4. Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicates (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Ge, Xuezhen; Jiang, Chao; Chen, Linghong; Qiu, Shuang; Zhao, Yuxiang; Wang, Tao; Zong, Shixiang

    2017-01-01

    Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) is an important forest pest that has caused serious damage in America and Vietnam. In 2014, it attacked forests of Acer trialatum in the Yunnan province of China, creating concern in China?s Forestry Bureau. We used the CLIMEX model to predict and compare the potential distribution for E. fornicates in China under current (1981?2010) and projected climate conditions (2011?2040) using one scenario (RCP8.5) and one global climate model (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. Unde...

  5. Greater striatopallidal adaptive coding during cue-reward learning and food reward habituation predict future weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Kyle S; Stice, Eric

    2014-10-01

    Animal experiments indicate that after repeated pairings of palatable food receipt and cues that predict palatable food receipt, dopamine signaling increases in response to predictive cues, but decreases in response to food receipt. Using functional MRI and mixed effects growth curve models with 35 females (M age=15.5±0.9; M BMI=24.5±5.4) we documented an increase in BOLD response in the caudate (r=.42) during exposure to cues predicting impending milkshake receipt over repeated exposures, demonstrating a direct measure of in vivo cue-reward learning in humans. Further, we observed a simultaneous decrease in putamen (r=-.33) and ventral pallidum (r=-.45) response during milkshake receipt that occurred over repeated exposures, putatively reflecting food reward habitation. We then tested whether cue-reward learning and habituation slopes predicted future weight over 2-year follow-up. Those who exhibited the greatest escalation in ventral pallidum responsivity to cues and the greatest decrease in caudate response to milkshake receipt showed significantly larger increases in BMI (r=.39 and -.69 respectively). Interestingly, cue-reward learning propensity and food reward habituation were not correlated, implying that these factors may constitute qualitatively distinct vulnerability pathways to excess weight gain. These two individual difference factors may provide insight as to why certain people have shown obesity onset in response to the current obesogenic environment in western cultures, whereas others have not. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. VOCATION OF LANGUAGE FOR INTERNATIONAL COMMUNICATION – A PREDICTION TOOL FOR FUTURE EVOLUTIONS IN GLOBAL COMMUNICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel-Cristian CONSTANTINESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a new perspective that explains the convergence toward an increasingly smaller number of languages in communication between speakers of different native languages: the "vocation of language for international communication". For the population of a country, the exposure to its official language by implicit interaction with it makes that the majority of citizens understands this language. Correlating the populations of these countries with the spread of these languages by countries and continents generates a hierarchy of languages, at global or regional level. English has the strongest vocation of language for international communication at global level, followed by French and Spanish, while Russian and Arabic have strong vocation only at regional level. Chinese has only a medium vocation at regional level, as German, Portuguese, Italian and Dutch. 23 languages officially spoken at least 2 countries and other 88 official languages of a sole country are grouped in 5 clusters, by their vocation of language for international communication.

  7. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesper Bruun

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1 communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category, (2 communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category, and (3 social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI scores. We find highly significant correlations (p<0.001 between network centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network, the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation

  8. Talking and learning physics: Predicting future grades from network measures and Force Concept Inventory pretest scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, Jesper; Brewe, Eric

    2013-12-01

    The role of student interactions in learning situations is a foundation of sociocultural learning theory, and social network analysis can be used to quantify student relations. We discuss how self-reported student interactions can be viewed as processes of meaning making and use this to understand how quantitative measures that describe the position in a network, called centrality measures, can be understood in terms of interactions that happen in the context of a university physics course. We apply this discussion to an empirical data set of self-reported student interactions. In a weekly administered survey, first year university students enrolled in an introductory physics course at a Danish university indicated with whom they remembered having communicated within different interaction categories. For three categories pertaining to (1) communication about how to solve physics problems in the course (called the PS category), (2) communications about the nature of physics concepts (called the CD category), and (3) social interactions that are not strictly related to the content of the physics classes (called the ICS category) in the introductory mechanics course, we use the survey data to create networks of student interaction. For each of these networks, we calculate centrality measures for each student and correlate these measures with grades from the introductory course, grades from two subsequent courses, and the pretest Force Concept Inventory (FCI) scores. We find highly significant correlations (pnetwork centrality measures and grades in all networks. We find the highest correlations between network centrality measures and future grades. In the network composed of interactions regarding problem solving (the PS network), the centrality measures hide and PageRank show the highest correlations (r=-0.32 and r=0.33, respectively) with future grades. In the CD network, the network measure target entropy shows the highest correlation (r=0.45) with future grades

  9. Present and future distributions of horseshoe crabs under predicted climate changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funch, Peter; Obst, Matthias; Quevedo, Francisco

    populations with obvious implications for the conservation efforts of the three Asian species. Historical records show that Tachypleus gigas (Müller, 1785) and Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda (Latreille, 1802) have a largely overlapping distribution ranging from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea where T....... gigas lives in sandy and shallow near-coast habitats, while C. rotundicauda mostly inhabits estuaries and mangroves. The third species T. tridentatus is living in shallow coastal zones from Malaysia to Japan. In order to improve our knowledge on current and future distribution of horseshoe crab...... populations, we developed and tested a series of ecological niche models for these species using occurrence data from our fieldwork and recent literature. These data were correlated with environmental information using the openModeller webservices. Results were used to identify the most decisive environmental...

  10. Single-cell epigenomics: Recording the past and predicting the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Gavin; Stegle, Oliver; Reik, Wolf

    2017-10-06

    Single-cell multi-omics has recently emerged as a powerful technology by which different layers of genomic output-and hence cell identity and function-can be recorded simultaneously. Integrating various components of the epigenome into multi-omics measurements allows for studying cellular heterogeneity at different time scales and for discovering new layers of molecular connectivity between the genome and its functional output. Measurements that are increasingly available range from those that identify transcription factor occupancy and initiation of transcription to long-lasting and heritable epigenetic marks such as DNA methylation. Together with techniques in which cell lineage is recorded, this multilayered information will provide insights into a cell's past history and its future potential. This will allow new levels of understanding of cell fate decisions, identity, and function in normal development, physiology, and disease. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression. PMID:22060677

  12. Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Richard C; Currie, Bart J; Lindsay, Michael D; Mackenzie, John S; Ritchie, Scott A; Whelan, Peter I

    2009-03-02

    Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

  13. Trying to predict the future – resource planning and allocation in CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bloom, Kenneth; Fisk, Ian; Kreuzer, Peter; Merino, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In the large LHC experiments the majority of computing resources are provided by the participating countries. These resource pledges account for more than three quarters of the total available computing. The experiments are asked to give indications of their requests three years in advance and to evolve these as the details and constraints become clearer. In this paper we will discuss the resource planning techniques used in CMS to predict the computing resources several years in advance. We will discuss how we attempt to implement the activities of the computing model in spread-sheets and formulas to calculate the needs. We will talk about how those needs are reflected in the 2012 running and how the planned long shutdown of the LHC in 2013 and 2014 impacts the planning process and the outcome. In the end we will speculate on the computing needs in the second major run of LHC.

  14. Elevated reward response to receipt of palatable food predicts future weight variability in healthy-weight adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Samantha R; Yokum, Sonja; Stice, Eric; Osipowicz, Karol; Lowe, Michael R

    2017-04-01

    Background: Both an elevated brain-reward-region response to palatable food and elevated weight variability have been shown to predict future weight gain. Objective: We examined whether the brain-reward response to food is related to future weight variability. Design: A total of 162 healthy-weight adolescents, who were aged 14-18 y at baseline, were enrolled in the study and were assessed annually over a 3-y follow-up period with 127 participants completing the final 3-y follow-up assessment. With the use of functional magnetic resonance imaging, we tested whether the neural responses to a cue that signaled an impending milkshake receipt and the receipt of the milkshake predicted weight variability over the follow-up period. Weight variability was modeled with a root mean squared error method to reflect fluctuations in weight independent of the net weight change. Results: Elevated activation in the medial prefrontal cortex and supplementary motor area, cingulate gyrus, cuneus and occipital gyrus, and insula in response to milkshake receipt predicted greater weight variability. Greater activation in the precuneus and middle temporal gyrus predicted lower weight variability. Conclusions: From our study data, we suggest that the elevated activation of reward and emotional-regulation brain regions (medial prefrontal cortex, cingulate cortex, and insula) and lower activation in self-reference regions (precuneus) in response to milkshake receipt predict weight variability over 3 y of follow-up. The fact that the reward response in the current study emerged in response to high-calorie palatable food receipt suggests that weight variability may be a measure of propensity periods of a positive energy balance and should be examined in addition to measures of the net weight change. With our collective results, we suggest that weight variability and its brain correlates should be added to other variables that are predictive of weight gain to inform the design of obesity

  15. Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

    2015-07-01

    The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

  16. Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Frank H.; Dennehy, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.

  17. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  18. Development of predictions of future pollution problems. Socio-economic environmental studies series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flinn, J.E.; Reimers, R.S.

    1974-03-01

    The report describes the results of a program to identify, rank and project short- and intermediate-term future pollution problems. Identification was accomplished using three independent search approaches based on industrial production, environmental, and societal trends and activity. Primary emphasis was placed on the environmental trends as gleaned from EPA, Battelle, Literature, and other sources. An initial list of problems was compiled with specific stressors identified with each. Nine ranking factors were devised to select ten most serious problems from the initial list. The factors included: persistence; mobility/pervasiveness; environmental, technological, social, and political complexity; physiological risk; research needs; and bulk or volume of the pollutant. The ten problems selected by this method were further ranked in order of relative importance. The ten selected problems in rank order are as follows: (1) Impacts of new energy initiatives; (2) Geophysical modifications of the earth; (3) Trace element (metal) contaminants; (4) Proliferating hazardous and toxic chemicals; (5) Emissions from new automobile fuels, additives, and control devices; (6) Disposal of waste sludges, liquids, and solid residues; (7) Critical radiation problems; (8) Fine particulates; (9) Expanding drinking water contamination; (10) Irrigation (impoundment) practices. Five to ten year projections were made of the ten problems which resulted

  19. Synergy for a Strong Future FY 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devore, L.; Chrzanowski, P.

    2008-01-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC is committed to delivering the best combination of scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations in support of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's critical national security mission. LLNS was formed specifically to manage LLNL for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. LLNS consists of a team of five organizations renowned for their expertise and accomplishments throughout the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and beyond - Bechtel National, University of California, Babcock and Wilcox, Washington Division of URS Corporation, and Battelle. Bechtel is the nation's largest engineering and construction firm and a leader in project management. The University of California is the world's largest public research institution. Babcock and Wilcox and the Washington Division of URS Corporation are top nuclear facilities contractors and between them manage four of DOE's five safest sites. Battelle is a global leader in science and technology development and commercialization. The LLNS Board of Governors provides oversight for the management of the Laboratory and holds the Director and LLNS President responsible for the Laboratory's performance. The Board has seven standing committees that assist in assessing Laboratory performance and monitoring risks and internal controls. Through the Board of Governors, the Laboratory can reach back to LLNS partner organizations to help ensure that it fulfills its national security mission with excellence in scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations. LLNS assumed management of LLNL on October 1, 2007. This report highlights LLNS accomplishments in FY2008, its first year as the Laboratory's managing contractor. It is clear that LLNS and the Laboratory have exploited numerous synergies inherent in their relationship - for example, science and engineering, mission and operations, LLNS partners and LLNL directorates - to notable success.

  20. Synergy for a Strong Future FY 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devore, L; Chrzanowski, P

    2008-11-06

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC is committed to delivering the best combination of scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations in support of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's critical national security mission. LLNS was formed specifically to manage LLNL for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. LLNS consists of a team of five organizations renowned for their expertise and accomplishments throughout the U.S. nuclear weapons complex and beyond - Bechtel National, University of California, Babcock & Wilcox, Washington Division of URS Corporation, and Battelle. Bechtel is the nation's largest engineering and construction firm and a leader in project management. The University of California is the world's largest public research institution. Babcock & Wilcox and the Washington Division of URS Corporation are top nuclear facilities contractors and between them manage four of DOE's five safest sites. Battelle is a global leader in science and technology development and commercialization. The LLNS Board of Governors provides oversight for the management of the Laboratory and holds the Director and LLNS President responsible for the Laboratory's performance. The Board has seven standing committees that assist in assessing Laboratory performance and monitoring risks and internal controls. Through the Board of Governors, the Laboratory can reach back to LLNS partner organizations to help ensure that it fulfills its national security mission with excellence in scientific research, technology development, business management, and safe, secure operations. LLNS assumed management of LLNL on October 1, 2007. This report highlights LLNS accomplishments in FY2008, its first year as the Laboratory's managing contractor. It is clear that LLNS and the Laboratory have exploited numerous synergies inherent in their relationship - for example, science and engineering, mission and operations, LLNS partners and LLNL directorates - to notable success.

  1. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica: predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron P Davis

    Full Text Available Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080. The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1 identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050, representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2 identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3 provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  2. The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Aaron P; Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana; Moat, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations

  3. Freshwater acidification research in Atlantic Canada : a review of results and predictions for the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clair, T.A.; Dennis, I.F. [Environment Canada, Sackville, NB (Canada). Aquatic Ecosystem Impact Research Div.; Scruton, D.A. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. John' s, NL (Canada); Gilliss, M. [New Brunswick Dept. of the Environment, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2007-09-15

    This paper examined freshwater acidification chemistry studies conducted in Atlantic Canada over the last 25 years in order to assess spatial and temporal trends in acidification variables for lakes in Nova Scotia. The granite and shale bedrock that is found in large parts of the Atlantic region contains very little buffering material, which causes soils and waters in the region to contain low base cation concentrations that are vulnerable to acidification. While Atlantic Canada has lower amounts of acid deposition than other areas in eastern North America, the region also has some of the most acidic surface waters in North America. The review showed that southwestern and eastern part of Nova Scotia have high organic acidity and higher acid deposition in addition to poor buffering, which has led to low pH and acid neutralization capacity values. While sulfate deposition in the region is decreasing, reductions in dissolved base cations and acid-base characteristics of natural organic acids are not allowing the recovery of acid neutralization capacities. Seasonal acid pulses are also a regular occurrence in the province. Critical load and dynamic geochemical models are predicting improvements in the water chemistry of Nova Scotia lakes. It was concluded that the re-establishment of pre-acidification water chemistry of the lakes will require significant reductions in sulfur emissions in both Canada and the United States. 91 refs., 7 figs.

  4. Cigarette smoking initiation during college predicts future alcohol involvement: a matched-samples study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Mark G; Doran, Neal M; Edland, Steven D; Schweizer, C Amanda; Wall, Tamaral L

    2013-11-01

    Little is known about the relationship between cigarette smoking initiation and subsequent alcohol involvement. To address this question, the present study compared alcohol use between students who initiated smoking during college and a matched sample of never-smoking students. We hypothesized greater increases in alcohol involvement among smoking initiators, mediated by exposure to cigarette use situations. Included in the present study were 104 Chinese American and Korean American undergraduates who at baseline (freshman year) reported never having smoked a cigarette. Subjects were drawn from 433 participants in a naturalistic longitudinal study of tobacco use who were assessed annually each year in college. Cigarette smoking status was assessed annually as part of a structured interview. Initiators and never-smokers were matched on gender, ethnicity, baseline alcohol use, parental smoking status, and behavioral undercontrol. As predicted, participants who initiated smoking during college reported significantly greater increases in the number of past-30-day total drinks consumed (p involvement. Part of this risk is explained by environmental contextual factors, specifically exposure to situations involving other smokers that also may result in greater exposure to alcohol use.

  5. Time scales of representation in the human brain: weighing past information to predict future events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee eHarrison

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimates that humans make of statistical dependencies in the environment and therefore their representation of uncertainty crucially depend on the integration of data over time. As such, the extent to which past events are used to represent uncertainty has been postulated to vary over the cortex. For example, primary visual cortex responds to rapid perturbations in the environment, while frontal cortices involved in executive control encode the longer term contexts within which these perturbations occur. Here we tested whether primary and executive regions can be distinguished by the number of past observations they represent. This was based on a decay-dependent model that weights past observations from a Markov process and Bayesian Model Selection (BMS to test the prediction that neuronal responses are characterised by different decay half-lives depending on location in the brain. We show distributions of brain responses for short and long term decay functions in primary and secondary visual and frontal cortices, respectively. We found that visual and parietal responses are released from the burden of the past, enabling an agile response to fluctuations in events as they unfold. In contrast, frontal regions are more concerned with average trends over longer time scales within which local variations are embedded. Specifically, we provide evidence for a temporal gradient for representing context within the prefrontal cortex and possibly beyond to include primary sensory and association areas.

  6. Psychrotolerant Sphingobacterium kitahiroshimense LT-2 Isolated from Dhundi Glacier, Himachal Pradesh: Origin Prediction and Future Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shivika; Chatterjee, Subhankar

    2018-06-01

    A psychrotolerant bacterium, isolated from Dhundi Glacier, Himachal Pradesh (India) was identified as Sphingobacterium kitahiroshimense LT-2 on the basis of biochemical, molecular and phylogenetic analysis. Sphingobacterium kitahiroshimense was first reported from Japan and was isolated from the city of Kitahiroshima, Hokkaido, Japan. In this report we have discussed about the origin of our strain and predicted that air masses and dust associated microbial cells transportation phenomena may be applicable for the origin of this species in this region. Enzymes and secondary metabolites secreted by the genus Sphingobacterium have enormous potentiality regarding their biotechnological application. Preliminary study of our strain based on metabolic profiling through HPLC showed many new metabolites were secreted by the bacterium when grown in presence of different sugar medium at 28 °C. As far as our knowledge this is the first report about Sphingobacterium species isolated from this region. This preliminary finding will help to draw an idea about the bacterial population in this Himalayan Glaciers (in HP) as well as biotechnological application of this strain can be explored further.

  7. Prediction of truly random future events using analysis of prestimulus electroencephalographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgart, Stephen L.; Franklin, Michael S.; Jimbo, Hiroumi K.; Su, Sharon J.; Schooler, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    Our hypothesis is that pre-stimulus physiological data can be used to predict truly random events tied to perceptual stimuli (e.g., lights and sounds). Our experiment presents light and sound stimuli to a passive human subject while recording electrocortical potentials using a 32-channel Electroencephalography (EEG) system. For every trial a quantum random number generator (qRNG) chooses from three possible selections with equal probability: a light stimulus, a sound stimulus, and no stimulus. Time epochs are defined preceding and post-ceding each stimulus for which mean average potentials were computed across all trials for the three possible stimulus types. Data from three regions of the brain are examined. In all three regions mean potential for light stimuli was generally enhanced relative to baseline during the period starting approximately 2 seconds before the stimulus. For sound stimuli, mean potential decreased relative to baseline during the period starting approximately 2 seconds before the stimulus. These changes from baseline may indicated the presence of evoked potentials arising from the stimulus. A P200 peak was observed in data recorded from frontal electrodes. The P200 is a well-known potential arising from the brain's processing of visual stimuli and its presence represents a replication of a known neurological phenomenon.

  8. Functional immunomics: microarray analysis of IgG autoantibody repertoires predicts the future response of mice to induced diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Francisco J; Hagedorn, Peter H; Elizur, Gad; Merbl, Yifat; Domany, Eytan; Cohen, Irun R

    2004-10-05

    One's present repertoire of antibodies encodes the history of one's past immunological experience. Can the present autoantibody repertoire be consulted to predict resistance or susceptibility to the future development of an autoimmune disease? Here, we developed an antigen microarray chip and used bioinformatic analysis to study a model of type 1 diabetes developing in nonobese diabetic male mice in which the disease was accelerated and synchronized by exposing the mice to cyclophosphamide at 4 weeks of age. We obtained sera from 19 individual mice, treated the mice to induce cyclophosphamide-accelerated diabetes (CAD), and found, as expected, that 9 mice became severely diabetic, whereas 10 mice permanently resisted diabetes. We again obtained serum from each mouse after CAD induction. We then analyzed, by using rank-order and superparamagnetic clustering, the patterns of antibodies in individual mice to 266 different antigens spotted on the chip. A selected panel of 27 different antigens (10% of the array) revealed a pattern of IgG antibody reactivity in the pre-CAD sera that discriminated between the mice resistant or susceptible to CAD with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity (P = 0.017). Surprisingly, the set of IgG antibodies that was informative before CAD induction did not separate the resistant and susceptible groups after the onset of CAD; new antigens became critical for post-CAD repertoire discrimination. Thus, at least for a model disease, present antibody repertoires can predict future disease, predictive and diagnostic repertoires can differ, and decisive information about immune system behavior can be mined by bioinformatic technology. Repertoires matter.

  9. Application of current and future satellite missions to hydrologic prediction in transboundary rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancamaria, S.; Clark, E.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2010-12-01

    temporal repeat (10 days for current satellites) and to gaps in the water mask, water volume estimates are meaningful only at the monthly scale. Furthermore, this information is limited to channels with wider than 250-500 m. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which is intended to be launched in 2020, will provide global maps of water elevations, with a spatial resolution of 100 m and errors on the water elevation equal to or below 10 cm. The SWOT Ka band interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), will not be affected by cloud cover (aside from infrequent heavy rain); therefore, estimation of the water volume change on the Ganges and on the Brahmaputra upstream to the Bangladesh provided by SWOT should be much more accurate in space and time than can currently be achieved. We discuss the implications of future SWOT observations in the context of our preliminary work on the Ganges-Brahmaputra Rivers using current generation satellite data.

  10. An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

  11. Can Dermatoglyphics Be Used as a Marker for Predicting Future Malocclusions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Neda; Jahanbin, Arezoo; Ezzati, Atefeh; Banihashemi, Elham; Kianifar, Hamidreza

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Dermal ridges and craniofacial structures form from the same embryonic tissues during the same embryonic period. Thus, this might indicate a possible association between dermatoglyphics and facial skeletal disorders, such as malocclusions. Early diagnosis of skeletal malocclusions sometimes can prevent future surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to compare the dermatoglyphic characteristics of different malocclusions. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 323 patients who were referred to Orthodontic Department of Mashhad Dental School were recruited. The participants were classified into three groups according to Angle’s classification, i.e., Skeletal Class 1 (n = 163), Skeletal Class 2 (n = 111), and Skeletal Class 3 (n = 49). For all participants, we recorded the total ridge counts of each finger (TRC), atd angles, a–b ridge counts, and types of fingerprint patterns. Right- and left-hand asymmetry scores were calculated. The chi-squared test was used to compare the dissimilarity of the types of patterns for each finger. Asymmetry of other parameters was analyzed statistically using the ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests. P-values greater than 0.05 were considered to be significant. Results A significant difference was determined between Class I and Class III patients in terms of left a–b ridge count (p=0.049). Loop was the most frequent pattern in the three groups, whereas the arch pattern occurred with the lowest frequency. No significant difference was found in the other parameters that were studied. Conclusion Although there were some slight differences in dermatoglyphic peculiarities of different skeletal malocclusions, most of the palm and fingerprint characteristics failed to indicate any significant differences. PMID:27054000

  12. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  13. Predicting hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in a future phase III HIV vaccine trial among high-risk adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giocos, Georgina; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie

    2008-11-01

    The present study sought to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted stated hypothetical willingness to participate (WTP) in future Phase III HIV vaccine trials among South African adolescents. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) significantly predicted WTP. Of all the predictors, Subjective norms significantly predicted WTP (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.06-1.34). A stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that Subjective Norms (OR = 1.19, 95% C.I. = 1.07-1.34) and Attitude towards participation in an HIV vaccine trial (OR = 1.32, 95% C.I. = 1.00-1.74) were significant predictors of WTP. The addition of Knowledge of HIV vaccines and HIV vaccine trials, Perceived self-risk of HIV infection, Health-promoting behaviours and Attitudes towards HIV/AIDS yielded non-significant results. These findings provide support for the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and suggest that psychosocial factors may play an important role in WTP in Phase III HIV vaccine trials among adolescents.

  14. Predicting diffuse microbial pollution risk across catchments: The performance of SCIMAP and recommendations for future development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Kenneth D H; Reaney, Sim M; Quilliam, Richard S; Burgess, Chris; Oliver, David M

    2017-12-31

    Microbial pollution of surface waters in agricultural catchments can be a consequence of poor farm management practices, such as excessive stocking of livestock on vulnerable land or inappropriate handling of manures and slurries. Catchment interventions such as fencing of watercourses, streamside buffer strips and constructed wetlands have the potential to reduce faecal pollution of watercourses. However these interventions are expensive and occupy valuable productive land. There is, therefore, a requirement for tools to assist in the spatial targeting of such interventions to areas where they will have the biggest impact on water quality improvements whist occupying the minimal amount of productive land. SCIMAP is a risk-based model that has been developed for this purpose but with a focus on diffuse sediment and nutrient pollution. In this study we investigated the performance of SCIMAP in predicting microbial pollution of watercourses and assessed modelled outputs of E. coli, a common faecal indicator organism (FIO), against observed water quality information. SCIMAP was applied to two river catchments in the UK. SCIMAP uses land cover risk weightings, which are routed through the landscape based on hydrological connectivity to generate catchment scale maps of relative in-stream pollution risk. Assessment of the model's performance and derivation of optimum land cover risk weightings was achieved using a Monte-Carlo sampling approach. Performance of the SCIMAP framework for informing on FIO risk was variable with better performance in the Yealm catchment (r s =0.88; p0.05). Across both catchments much uncertainty was associated with the application of optimum risk weightings attributed to different land use classes. Overall, SCIMAP showed potential as a useful tool in the spatial targeting of FIO diffuse pollution management strategies; however, improvements are required to transition the existing SCIMAP framework to a robust FIO risk-mapping tool. Copyright

  15. The Holy Grail: Deterministic prediction of corrosion damage thousands of years into the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, Digby D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper summarises work being carried out by the author, under Department of Energy (DoE) sponsorship, to develop general corrosion models for Alloy C-22 HLNW canisters in a Yucca Mountain type repository. Two models have been developed to date: (1) the General Corrosion Model (GCM), which yields the corrosion potential and corrosion rate at a specified state point (i.e. a point on the evolutionary path), and (2) the Accumulated Damage Model (ADM), which integrates the corrosion rate calculated for closely spaced state points along the evolutionary path to yield the corrosion loss over the history of the repository. The GCM is based upon the Point Defect Model (PDM) for the steady state growth of passive films on metal surfaces and upon the general Butler-Volmer equation for the kinetics of redox reactions (hydrogen evolution and oxygen reduction), both of which are combined within the framework of the Mixed Potential Model (MPM) to yield the desired corrosion potential and corrosion rate. Importantly, the solution of the constitutive equations contained within the MPM is constrained by the conservation of charge, thereby imparting a high degree of determinism to the predictions. Application of the ADM to evolutionary paths defined by the repository temperature, and assuming that the canisters are always in contact with saturated brine under ambient oxygen pressure conditions, yields a corrosion loss of about 1.7 mm over the 10 000-year service life of the repository. It is estimated that complete loss of the 2 cm Alloy C-22 wall would require an exposure time of about 200 000 years and that the corrosion loss after 1 000 000 years would be slightly less than 9 cm. (authors)

  16. Research prioritization through prediction of future impact on biomedical science: a position paper on inference-analytics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganapathiraju, Madhavi K; Orii, Naoki

    2013-08-30

    Advances in biotechnology have created "big-data" situations in molecular and cellular biology. Several sophisticated algorithms have been developed that process big data to generate hundreds of biomedical hypotheses (or predictions). The bottleneck to translating this large number of biological hypotheses is that each of them needs to be studied by experimentation for interpreting its functional significance. Even when the predictions are estimated to be very accurate, from a biologist's perspective, the choice of which of these predictions is to be studied further is made based on factors like availability of reagents and resources and the possibility of formulating some reasonable hypothesis about its biological relevance. When viewed from a global perspective, say from that of a federal funding agency, ideally the choice of which prediction should be studied would be made based on which of them can make the most translational impact. We propose that algorithms be developed to identify which of the computationally generated hypotheses have potential for high translational impact; this way, funding agencies and scientific community can invest resources and drive the research based on a global view of biomedical impact without being deterred by local view of feasibility. In short, data-analytic algorithms analyze big-data and generate hypotheses; in contrast, the proposed inference-analytic algorithms analyze these hypotheses and rank them by predicted biological impact. We demonstrate this through the development of an algorithm to predict biomedical impact of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) which is estimated by the number of future publications that cite the paper which originally reported the PPI. This position paper describes a new computational problem that is relevant in the era of big-data and discusses the challenges that exist in studying this problem, highlighting the need for the scientific community to engage in this line of research. The proposed

  17. Comparative assessment for future prediction of urban water environment using WEAP model: A case study of Kathmandu, Manila and Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Yoshifumi, Masago; Ammar, Rafieiemam; Mishra, Binaya; Fukushi, Ken

    2017-04-01

    Uncontrolled release of pollutants, increasing extreme weather condition, rapid urbanization and poor governance posing a serious threat to sustainable water resource management in developing urban spaces. Considering half of the world's mega-cities are in the Asia and the Pacific with 1.7 billion people do not access to improved water and sanitation, water security through its proper management is both an increasing concern and an imperative critical need. This research work strives to give a brief glimpse about predicted future water environment in Bagmati, Pasig and Ciliwung rivers from three different cities viz. Manila, Kathmandu and Jakarta respectively. Hydrological model used here to foresee the collective impacts of rapid population growth because of urbanization as well as climate change on unmet demand and water quality in near future time by 2030. All three rivers are major source of water for different usage viz. domestic, industrial, agriculture and recreation but uncontrolled withdrawal and sewerage disposal causing deterioration of water environment in recent past. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was used to model river water quality pollution future scenarios using four indicator species i.e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Nitrate (NO3). Result for simulated water quality as well as unmet demand for year 2030 when compared with that of reference year clearly indicates that not only water quality deteriorates but also unmet demands is increasing in future course of time. This also suggests that current initiatives and policies for water resource management are not sufficient enough and hence immediate and inclusive action through transdisciplinary research.

  18. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul S. Larsen

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis, valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark, from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011 showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1 and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9 while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13 and Day 159 (Nov 20. Similar results were obtained by use of the ad hoc BEG model which also demonstrated the sensitivity of growth prediction to levels of chl a concentration, but less to temperature. The results suggest that it is possible (when the conditions are optimal, i.e., no intraspecific competition ensured by sufficient thinning to produce ‘mini-mussels’ in Great Belt during one season, but not the usual marketable 45-mm mussels. We suggest that the prediction model may be used as a practical instrument to evaluate to what degree the actual growth of mussels on farm ropes due to intraspecific competition may deviate from the potential (optimal growth under specified chl a and temperature conditions, and this implies that the effect of thinning to optimize the individual growth by eliminating intraspecific competition can be rationally evaluated.

  19. The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, Adam J; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A

    2014-01-01

    The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

  20. Objective criteria for septal fibrosis in non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: validation for the prediction of future cardiovascular events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikami, Yoko; Cornhill, Aidan; Heydari, Bobak; Joncas, Sebastien X; Almehmadi, Fahad; Zahrani, Mohammed; Bokhari, Mahmoud; Stirrat, John; Yee, Raymond; Merchant, Naeem; Lydell, Carmen P; Howarth, Andrew G; White, James A

    2016-11-14

    Expert subjective reporting of mid-wall septal fibrosis on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) images has been shown to predict major cardiovascular outcomes in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM). This study aims to establish objective criteria for non-experts to report clinically relevant septal fibrosis and compare its performance by such readers versus experts for the prediction of cardiovascular events. LGE cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) was performed in 118 consecutive patients with NIDCM (mean age 57 ± 14, 42 % female) and the presence of septal fibrosis scored by expert readers. CMR-naive readers performed signal threshold-based LGE quantification by referencing mean values of remote tissue and applying these to a pre-defined anatomic region to measure septal fibrosis. All patients were followed for the primary composite outcome of cardiac mortality or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. The mean LVEF was 32 ± 12 %. At a median follow-up of 1.9 years, 20 patients (17 %) experienced a primary composite outcome. Expert visual scoring identified 55 patients with septal fibrosis. Non-expert septal fibrosis quantification was highly reproducible and identified mean septal fibrosis burden for three measured thresholds as follows; 5SD: 2.9 ± 3.6 %, 3SD: 6.9 ± 6.3 %, and 2SD: 11.1 ± 7.5 % of the left ventricular (LV) mass, respectively. By ROC analysis, optimal thresholds for prediction of the primary outcome were; 5SD: 2.74 % (HR 8.7, p 5SD threshold) was the strongest independent predictor of the primary outcome (HR 8.7) and provided improved risk reclassification beyond LVEF alone (NRI 0.54, 95 % CI 0.16-0.92, p = 0.005). Novice readers were able to achieve superior risk prediction for future cardiovascular events versus experts using objective criteria for septal fibrosis in patients with NIDCM. Patients with a septal fibrosis burden >2.74 % of the LV mass (>5SD

  1. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

  2. Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species. PMID:27293680

  3. High screening blood pressure at young age predicts future masked hypertension: A 17 year follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skårn, Sigrid Nordang; Flaa, Arnljot; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Rostrup, Morten; Brunborg, Cathrine; Reims, Henrik M; Fossum, Eigil; Høieggen, Aud; Aksnes, Tonje Amb

    2015-06-01

    Approximately 10-20% of the general population have masked hypertension. However, how best to identify affected individuals is uncertain, and what predicts future masked hypertension is largely unknown. This study aimed to identify longitudinal predictors of masked hypertension. A long-term follow-up study of 100 healthy young men who had normal (n = 28) or high (n = 72) screening blood pressure (BP) at the compulsory military draft was carried out. They were examined in a detailed and highly standardized way for cardiovascular risk markers at baseline and at follow-up after a mean of 17.4 years. At follow-up, 40% had masked hypertension. Participants with high screening BP had a 4.8 times higher likelihood of having masked hypertension at follow-up compared to men with low screening BP (odds ratio 4.8, 95% confidence interval 1.7-13.5, p = 0.003). Furthermore, only 25% of the men with masked hypertension had high normal office BP at follow-up, and the remaining 75% would, according to guidelines, not be recommended ambulatory BP measurements, and thus go undiagnosed. Our data suggest that high screening BP at a young age is an important predictor of future masked hypertension in young men, and that BP measurement according to guidelines is insufficient to uncover masked hypertension.

  4. The Role of Uric Acid for Predicting Future Metabolic Syndrome and Type 2 Diabetes in Older People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, J-B; Chen, Y-L; Hung, Y-J; Hsieh, C-H; Lee, C-H; Pei, D; Lin, J-D; Wu, C-Z; Liang, Y-J; Lin, C-M

    2017-01-01

    Although it is known that high uric acid (UA) level is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS), most of the previous studies were focused on adults. Since aging becomes a major problem for many societies, in this longitudinal study, we investigated the role of UA in future T2DM and MetS in a large cohort of people who were older than 65 years. A cross-sectional and longitudinal study. 18,907 elderly (9,732 men, 9,175 women) aged above 65 years, enrolled from health check-up centers, were classified into three subgroups by 10-year intervals (young old 65-74 years, YO; old old 75-84 years, OO; and oldest old 85-94 years, ODO), with the average follow-up period of 4.3 years. The optimal cut-off values (CoVs) of baseline UA to predict future MetS and T2DM were determined by receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Using these CoVs of UA, the participants were divided into normal- and high-level groups of UA. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for the subjects with a high level of UA for the risk of future MetS and T2DM. In addition, Kaplan-Meier plots and log rank test were used to evaluate the time effect on the incidence of developing MetS and T2DM between the two groups. In ROC curve analysis, the optimal CoVs of baseline UA were 6.0, 6.3 and 6.7 mg/dl in YO, OO, and ODO men, respectively; 5.5 and 4.9 mg/dl in YO and OO women, respectively (all p metabolic biomarkers may help clinicians to early detect and prevent MetS and diabetes.

  5. Growth-Prediction Model for Blue Mussels (Mytilus edulis) on Future Optimally Thinned Farm-Ropes in Great Belt (Denmark)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Poul Scheel; Riisgård, Hans

    2016-01-01

    A recently developed BioEnergetic Growth (BEG) model for blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), valid for juvenile mussels, has been further developed to an ‘extended model’ and an alternative ‘ad hoc BEG model’ valid for post-metamorphic mussels, where the latter accounts for changing ambient chl...... a concentration. It was used to predict the growth of M. edulis on optimally thinned farm-ropes in Great Belt (Denmark), from newly settled post-metamorphic mussels of an initial shell size of 0.8 mm to marketable juvenile 30–35 mm ‘mini-mussels’. Such mussels will presumably in the near future be introduced...... as a new Danish, smaller-sized consumer product. Field data for actual growth (from Day 0 = 14 June 2011) showed that size of ‘mini-mussel’ was reached on Day 109 (Oct 1) and length 38 mm on Day 178 (Dec 9) while the corresponding predictions using the extended model were Day 121 (Oct 13) and Day 159 (Nov...

  6. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  7. Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bocchiola

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060 hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2, nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated.

    The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of

  8. SELF-RATED EXPECTATIONS OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR PREDICT FUTURE SUICIDE ATTEMPTS AMONG ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT PSYCHIATRIC EMERGENCY PATIENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czyz, Ewa K; Horwitz, Adam G; King, Cheryl A

    2016-06-01

    This study's purpose was to examine the predictive validity and clinical utility of a brief measure assessing youths' own expectations of their future risk of suicidal behavior, administered in a psychiatric emergency (PE) department; and determine if youths' ratings improve upon a clinician-administered assessment of suicidal ideation severity. The outcome was suicide attempts up to 18 months later. In this medical record review study, 340 consecutively presenting youths (ages 13-24) seeking PE services over a 7-month period were included. Subsequent PE visits and suicide attempts were retrospectively tracked for up to 18 months. The 3-item scale assessing patients' perception of their own suicidal behavior risk and the clinician-administered ideation severity scale were used routinely at the study site. Cox regression results showed that youths' expectations of suicidal behavior were independently associated with increased risk of suicide attempts, even after adjusting for key covariates. Results were not moderated by sex, suicide attempt history, or age. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that self-assessed expectations of risk improved the predictive accuracy of the clinician-administered suicidal ideation measure. Youths' ratings indicative of lower confidence in maintaining safety uniquely predicted follow-up attempts and provided incremental validity over and above the clinician-administered assessment and improved its accuracy, suggesting their potential for augmenting suicide risk formulation. Assessing youths' own perceptions of suicide risk appears to be clinically useful, feasible to implement in PE settings, and, if replicated, promising for improving identification of youth at risk for suicidal behavior. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Evaluation of different biomarkers to predict individual radiosensitivity in an inter-laboratory comparison--lessons for future studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burkhard Greve

    Full Text Available Radiotherapy is a powerful cure for several types of solid tumours, but its application is often limited because of severe side effects in individual patients. With the aim to find biomarkers capable of predicting normal tissue side reactions we analysed the radiation responses of cells from individual head and neck tumour and breast cancer patients of different clinical radiosensitivity in a multicentric study. Multiple parameters of cellular radiosensitivity were analysed in coded samples of peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs and derived lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs from 15 clinical radio-hypersensitive tumour patients and compared to age- and sex-matched non-radiosensitive patient controls and 15 lymphoblastoid cell lines from age- and sex- matched healthy controls of the KORA study. Experimental parameters included ionizing radiation (IR-induced cell death (AnnexinV, induction and repair of DNA strand breaks (Comet assay, induction of yH2AX foci (as a result of DNA double strand breaks, and whole genome expression analyses. Considerable inter-individual differences in IR-induced DNA strand breaks and their repair and/or cell death could be detected in primary and immortalised cells with the applied assays. The group of clinically radiosensitive patients was not unequivocally distinguishable from normal responding patients nor were individual overreacting patients in the test system unambiguously identified by two different laboratories. Thus, the in vitro test systems investigated here seem not to be appropriate for a general prediction of clinical reactions during or after radiotherapy due to the experimental variability compared to the small effect of radiation sensitivity. Genome-wide expression analysis however revealed a set of 67 marker genes which were differentially induced 6 h after in vitro-irradiation in lymphocytes from radio-hypersensitive and non-radiosensitive patients. These results warrant future validation in larger

  10. Right Ventricular Ejection Fraction Is Incremental to Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction for the Prediction of Future Arrhythmic Events in Patients With Systolic Dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikami, Yoko; Jolly, Umjeet; Heydari, Bobak; Peng, Mingkai; Almehmadi, Fahad; Zahrani, Mohammed; Bokhari, Mahmoud; Stirrat, John; Lydell, Carmen P; Howarth, Andrew G; Yee, Raymond; White, James A

    2017-01-01

    Left ventricular ejection fraction remains the primary risk stratification tool used in the selection of patients for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy. However, this solitary marker fails to identify a substantial portion of patients experiencing sudden cardiac arrest. In this study, we examined the incremental value of considering right ventricular ejection fraction for the prediction of future arrhythmic events in patients with systolic dysfunction using the gold standard of cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Three hundred fourteen consecutive patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy or nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy undergoing cardiovascular magnetic resonance were followed for the primary outcome of sudden cardiac arrest or appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy. Blinded quantification of left ventricular and right ventricular (RV) volumes was performed from standard cine imaging. Quantification of fibrosis from late gadolinium enhancement imaging was incrementally performed. RV dysfunction was defined as right ventricular ejection fraction ≤45%. Among all patients (164 ischemic cardiomyopathy, 150 nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy), the mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 32±12% (range, 6-54%) with mean right ventricular ejection fraction of 48±15% (range, 7-78%). At a median of 773 days, 49 patients (15.6%) experienced the primary outcome (9 sudden cardiac arrest, 40 appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies). RV dysfunction was independently predictive of the primary outcome (hazard ratio=2.98; P=0.002). Among those with a left ventricular ejection fraction >35% (N=121; mean left ventricular ejection fraction, 45±6%), RV dysfunction provided an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.2 (P=0.02). RV dysfunction is a strong, independent predictor of arrhythmic events. Among patients with mild to moderate LV dysfunction, a cohort greatly contributing to global sudden cardiac arrest burden, this marker

  11. Model predictions of the results of interferometric observations for stars under conditions of strong gravitational scattering by black holes and wormholes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shatskiy, A. A.; Kovalev, Yu. Yu.; Novikov, I. D.

    2015-01-01

    The characteristic and distinctive features of the visibility amplitude of interferometric observations for compact objects like stars in the immediate vicinity of the central black hole in our Galaxy are considered. These features are associated with the specifics of strong gravitational scattering of point sources by black holes, wormholes, or black-white holes. The revealed features will help to determine the most important topological characteristics of the central object in our Galaxy: whether this object possesses the properties of only a black hole or also has characteristics unique to wormholes or black-white holes. These studies can be used to interpret the results of optical, infrared, and radio interferometric observations

  12. Model predictions of the results of interferometric observations for stars under conditions of strong gravitational scattering by black holes and wormholes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shatskiy, A. A., E-mail: shatskiy@asc.rssi.ru; Kovalev, Yu. Yu.; Novikov, I. D. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Astro Space Center, Lebedev Physical Institute (Russian Federation)

    2015-05-15

    The characteristic and distinctive features of the visibility amplitude of interferometric observations for compact objects like stars in the immediate vicinity of the central black hole in our Galaxy are considered. These features are associated with the specifics of strong gravitational scattering of point sources by black holes, wormholes, or black-white holes. The revealed features will help to determine the most important topological characteristics of the central object in our Galaxy: whether this object possesses the properties of only a black hole or also has characteristics unique to wormholes or black-white holes. These studies can be used to interpret the results of optical, infrared, and radio interferometric observations.

  13. Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochier, Timothée; Echevin, Vincent; Tam, Jorge; Chaigneau, Alexis; Goubanova, Katerina; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2013-06-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Using Repeated Measures of Sleep Disturbances to Predict Future Diagnosis-Specific Work Disability: A Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salo, Paula; Vahtera, Jussi; Hall, Martica; Rod, Naja Hulvej; Virtanen, Marianna; Pentti, Jaana; Sjösten, Noora; Oksanen, Tuula; Kivimäki, Mika

    2012-01-01

    Context: It is unknown whether or not measuring sleep disturbances repeatedly, rather than at only one point in time, improves prediction of work disability. Study Objective: o examine sleep disturbance patterns over time as a risk marker for diagnosis-specific work disability. Design: rospective cohort study linking repeatedly measured self-reported sleep disturbances with records of physician-certified work disability (sickness absence) from a national register. Participants responded to surveys in 2000–2002, and 2004, and were followed up for 12 mo. Setting: Public sector employees in Finland. Participants: 25,639 participants (mean age 45.6 yr, 82% female). Main Outcome Measure: Incident diagnosis-specific sickness absence of > 9 days. Results: During a mean follow-up of 323 days, 4,975 employees (19%) had a new episode of sickness absence. In multivariable-adjusted models corrected for multiple testing, stable severe sleep disturbances, in comparison with no sleep disturbances, were associated with an increased risk of sickness absence due to diseases of the musculoskeletal system (hazard ratio (HR) 1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45–1.95), and injuries and poisonings (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.23–2.18). Increases in sleep disturbances predicted subsequent sickness absence due to mental disorders (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.32–1.91), and diseases of the musculoskeletal system (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.27–1.64) According to net reclassification improvement analyses, measurement of sleep disturbance patterns rather than the level of sleep disturbances at one point in time improved prediction of all-cause sickness absence by 14%, and diagnosis-specific sickness absences up to 17% (P for improvement sleep disturbances mark an increased risk of diagnosis-specific work disability. Citation: Salo P; Vahtera J; Hall M; Rod NH; Virtanen M; Pentti J; Sjösten N; Oksanen T; Kivimäki M. Using repeated measures of sleep disturbances to predict future diagnosis-specific work

  15. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  16. Age of first use of energy beverages predicts future maximal consumption among naval pilot and flight officer candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sather, Thomas E; Woolsey, Conrad L; Williams, Ronald D; Evans, Marion W; Cromartie, Fred

    2016-06-01

    Energy drinks are popular beverages that can have adverse long-term health effects when consumed by children and adolescents. This study sought to determine if the age of first energy drink use in a U.S. military population is predictive of the maximum number of energy drinks consumed during a single day and/or single occasion (operationally defined as a couple of hours; e.g., a night out, during studying or sport session). Student U.S. naval aviator and naval flight officers who reported past-year use of energy drinks (N = 239) were surveyed to determine various measures of energy drink consumption. Age of first consumption was predictive of the maximum number of energy drinks consumed during a single occasion within the past year. Within this sample, the age range between 13 and 16 years appeared to be a critical period with results indicating that people who began consuming energy drinks during this period were 4.88 times more likely to consume high quantities (four or more) of energy drinks during a single occasion when compared to those who started consuming energy drinks between the ages of 20-23. Likewise, persons who began to consume energy drinks between the ages of 13-16 are 2.48 times more likely to consume high quantities of energy drinks during a single occasion than those who started between the ages of 17-19. There was no difference between 17 and 19 year olds and 20-23 year olds. Age of first use was not correlated to daily average intake or daily maximal intake of energy drinks. A lower age of first energy drink use suggests higher risk of single-occasion heavy episodic consumption in this military population. Researchers should further explore the relationship of early onset energy drink consumption and potential future health risks.

  17. Morphological Atherosclerosis Calcification Distribution (MACD) Index is a Strong Predictor of Cardio-Vascular Death and Include Predictive Power of BMD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus; Karsdal, Morten; Ganz, Melanie

    Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) related deaths. We investigated the relation between mortality and aspects of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta and BMD of postmenopausal women. 308 women aged 48 to 76 were...... was significantly higher than AC24 and any single or multivariate metabolic/physical marker. BMD correlates with AC24 among CVD dead patients (p=0.03) unlike MACD (p=0.43). The recent MACD-index provides a unique combination of morphology and distribution of aortic calcifications, factors that in a combination...... increase the biological relevance of the index by emphasizing that smaller plaques with a spread elongated morphology have a larger growth potential and thereby subsequent rupture potential. It includes the predictive power of BMD unlike the AC24 index. Thereby, in the current cohort with a long term...

  18. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  19. Peering into the Brain to Predict Behavior: Peer-Reported, but not Self-Reported, Conscientiousness Links Threat-Related Amygdala Activity to Future Problem Drinking

    OpenAIRE

    Swartz, Johnna R.; Knodt, Annchen R.; Radtke, Spenser R.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

    2016-01-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-repor...

  20. Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout ( Salmo trutta )

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, C.; Aarestrup, Kim; Norum, U.

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K(+-)ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between...... future migrants or residents. The maximum percentage of correct predictions of future migratory behaviour in mainstream fish was observed at threshold probabilities between approximately 0.15 and 0.45 (corresponding to threshold gill Na+/K+-ATPase activities between 2.7 and 3.7 mumol ADP mg(-1) protein h...

  1. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R; Mortensen, L H; Deary, I J

    2008-12-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Cohort study of 4166 US male former army personnel with data on IQ test scores (in early adulthood and middle age), a range of established risk factors and 15-year mortality surveillance. When CVD mortality (n = 61) was the outcome of interest, the relative index of inequality (RII: hazard ratio; 95% CI) for the most disadvantaged relative to the advantaged (in descending order of magnitude of the first six based on age-adjusted analyses) was: 6.58 (2.54 to 17.1) for family income; 5.55 (2.16 to 14.2) for total cholesterol; 5.12 (2.01 to 13.0) for body mass index; 4.70 (1.89 to 11.7) for IQ in middle age; 4.29 (1.70 to 10.8) for blood glucose and 4.08 (1.63 to 10.2) for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (the RII for IQ in early adulthood was ranked tenth: 2.88; 1.19 to 6.97). In analyses featuring all deaths (n = 233), the RII for risk factors most strongly related to this outcome was 7.46 (4.54 to 12.3) for family income; 4.41 (2.77 to 7.03) for IQ in middle age; 4.02 (2.37 to 6.83) for smoking; 3.81 (2.35 to 6.17) for educational attainment; 3.40 (2.14 to 5.41) for pulse rate and 3.26 (2.06 to 5.15) for IQ in early adulthood. Multivariable adjustment led to marked attenuation of these relations, particularly those for IQ. Lower scores on measures of IQ at two time points were associated with CVD and, particularly, total mortality, at a level of magnitude greater than several other established risk factors.

  2. Molecular Reconnaissance of the β Pictoris Gas Disk with the SMA: A Low HCN/(CO+CO2) Outgassing Ratio and Predictions for Future Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matrà, L.; Wilner, D. J.; Öberg, K. I.; Andrews, S. M.; Loomis, R. A.; Wyatt, M. C.; Dent, W. R. F.

    2018-02-01

    The exocometary origin of CO gas has been confirmed in several extrasolar Kuiper belts, with CO ice abundances consistent with solar system comets. We here present a molecular survey of the β Pictoris belt with the Submillimeter Array (SMA), reporting upper limits for CN, HCN, HCO+, N2H+, and H2CO, as well as for H2S, CH3OH, SiO, and DCN from archival ALMA data. Nondetections can be attributed to rapid molecular photodissociation due to the A-star’s strong UV flux. CN is the longest lasting and most easily detectable molecule after CO in this environment. We update our nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium excitation model to include UV fluorescence, finding it plays a key role in CO and CN excitation, and we use it to turn the SMA CN/CO flux ratio constraint into an upper limit of value is consistent with, but at the low end of, the broad range observed in solar system comets. If sublimation dominates outgassing, then this low value may be caused by decreased outgassing for the less volatile molecule HCN compared to CO. If instead UV photodesorption or collisional vaporization of unbound grains dominates outgassing, then this low ratio of rates would imply a low ice abundance ratio, which would in turn indicate a variation in cometary cyanide abundances across planetary systems. To conclude, we make predictions for future molecular surveys and show that CN and HCN should be readily detectable with ALMA around β Pictoris for solar-system-like exocometary compositions.

  3. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  4. [Future status of ischaemic heart disease in the state of San Luis Potosí: A predictive dynamic model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaytán-Hernández, Darío; Díaz-Oviedo, Aracely; Gallegos-García, Verónica; Terán-Figueroa, Yolanda

    2017-12-12

    To develop a predictive dynamic model to generate and analyse the future status of the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease in a population of 25 years and over in Mexico, according to the variation in time of some risk factors. Retrospective ecological study performed during the period 2013-2015, in San Luis Potosí City, Mexico. Secondary databases that corresponded to the years 2000, 2005, and 2010, were used along with official indicators of the 58 municipalities of the state of San Luis Potosí. Eight indicators were analysed at municipality level, using principal components analysis, structural equation modelling, dynamic modelling, and simulation software methods. Three components were extracted, which together explained 80.43% of the total variance of the official indicators used. The second component had a weight of 16.36 units that favoured an increase of the disease analysed. This component was integrated only by the indicator AGE 60-64 and the expected stage of it increasing. The structural model confirmed that the indicators explain 42% of the variation of this disease. The possible stages for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025 are 195.7, 240.7, and 298.0, respectively for every 100,000 inhabitants aged 25 and over. An exponential increase in the incidence rate of ischaemic heart disease is expected, with the age of 60-64 years being identified as the highest risk factor. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  5. Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2017-02-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing the Effectiveness of Statistical Classification Techniques in Predicting Future Employment of Participants in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Isaac D.

    2008-01-01

    Three classification techniques (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection [CHAID], Classification and Regression Tree [CART], and discriminant analysis) were tested to determine their accuracy in predicting Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program recipients' future employment. Technique evaluation was based on proportion of correctly…

  7. Predicting the current potential and future world wide distribution of the onion maggot, Delia antiqua using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Shuoying; Wei, Jiufeng; Feng, Jinian

    2017-01-01

    Climate change will markedly impact biology, population ecology, and spatial distribution patterns of insect pests because of the influence of future greenhouse effects on insect development and population dynamics. Onion maggot, Delia antiqua, larvae are subterranean pests with limited mobility, that directly feed on bulbs of Allium sp. and render them completely unmarketable. Modeling the spatial distribution of such a widespread and damaging pest is crucial not only to identify current potentially suitable climactic areas but also to predict where the pest is likely to spread in the future so that appropriate monitoring and management programs can be developed. In this study, Maximum Entropy Niche Modeling was used to estimate the current potential distribution of D. antiqua and to predict the future distribution of this species in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 by using emission scenario (A2) with 7 climate variables. The results of this study show that currently highly suitable habitats for D.antiqua occur throughout most of East Asia, some regions of North America, Western Europe, and Western Asian countries near the Caspian sea and Black Sea. In the future, we predict an even broader distribution of this pest spread more extensively throughout Asia, North America and Europe, particularly in most of European countries, Central regions of United States and much of East Asia. Our present day and future predictions can enhance strategic planning of agricultural organizations by identifying regions that will need to develop Integrated Pest Management programs to manage the onion maggot. The distribution forecasts will also help governments to optimize economic investments in management programs for this pest by identifying regions that are or will become less suitable for current and future infestations.

  8. When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson

    2013-01-01

    Researchers and natural resource managers need predictions of how multiple global changes (e.g., climate change, rising levels of air pollutants, exotic invasions) will affect landscape composition and ecosystem function. Ecological predictive models used for this purpose are constructed using either a mechanistic (process-based) or a phenomenological (empirical)...

  9. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  10. “Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafen Zhu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

  11. Development of the SaFETy Score: A Clinical Screening Tool for Predicting Future Firearm Violence Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstick, Jason E; Carter, Patrick M; Walton, Maureen A; Dahlberg, Linda L; Sumner, Steven A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Cunningham, Rebecca M

    2017-05-16

    Interpersonal firearm violence among youth is a substantial public health problem, and emergency department (ED) physicians require a clinical screening tool to identify high-risk youth. To derive a clinically feasible risk index for firearm violence. 24-month prospective cohort study. Urban, level 1 ED. Substance-using youths, aged 14 to 24 years, seeking ED care for an assault-related injury and a proportionately sampled group of non-assault-injured youth enrolled from September 2009 through December 2011. Firearm violence (victimization/perpetration) and validated questionnaire items. A total of 599 youths were enrolled, and presence/absence of future firearm violence during follow-up could be ascertained in 483 (52.2% were positive). The sample was randomly split into training (75%) and post-score-construction validation (25%) sets. Using elastic-net penalized logistic regression, 118 baseline predictors were jointly analyzed; the most predictive variables fell predominantly into 4 domains: violence victimization, community exposure, peer influences, and fighting. By selection of 1 item from each domain, the 10-point SaFETy (Serious fighting, Friend weapon carrying, community Environment, and firearm Threats) score was derived. SaFETy was associated with firearm violence in the validation set (odds ratio [OR], 1.47 [95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79]); this association remained (OR, 1.44 [CI, 1.20 to 1.76]) after adjustment for reason for ED visit. In 5 risk strata observed in the training data, firearm violence rates in the validation set were 18.2% (2 of 11), 40.0% (18 of 45), 55.8% (24 of 43), 81.3% (13 of 16), and 100.0% (6 of 6), respectively. The study was conducted in a single ED and involved substance-using youths. SaFETy was not externally validated. The SaFETy score is a 4-item score based on clinically feasible questionnaire items and is associated with firearm violence. Although broader validation is required, SaFETy shows potential to guide resource allocation

  12. CD8 and CD4 epitope predictions in RV144: no strong evidence of a T-cell driven sieve effect in HIV-1 breakthrough sequences from trial participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommaraju, Kalpana; Kijak, Gustavo; Carlson, Jonathan M; Larsen, Brendan B; Tovanabutra, Sodsai; Geraghty, Dan E; Deng, Wenjie; Maust, Brandon S; Edlefsen, Paul T; Sanders-Buell, Eric; Ratto-Kim, Silvia; deSouza, Mark S; Rerks-Ngarm, Supachai; Nitayaphan, Sorachai; Pitisuttihum, Punnee; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; O'Connell, Robert J; Robb, Merlin L; Michael, Nelson L; Mullins, James I; Kim, Jerome H; Rolland, Morgane

    2014-01-01

    The modest protection afforded by the RV144 vaccine offers an opportunity to evaluate its mechanisms of protection. Differences between HIV-1 breakthrough viruses from vaccine and placebo recipients can be attributed to the RV144 vaccine as this was a randomized and double-blinded trial. CD8 and CD4 T cell epitope repertoires were predicted in HIV-1 proteomes from 110 RV144 participants. Predicted Gag epitope repertoires were smaller in vaccine than in placebo recipients (p = 0.019). After comparing participant-derived epitopes to corresponding epitopes in the RV144 vaccine, the proportion of epitopes that could be matched differed depending on the protein conservation (only 36% of epitopes in Env vs 84-91% in Gag/Pol/Nef for CD8 predicted epitopes) or on vaccine insert subtype (55% against CRF01_AE vs 7% against subtype B). To compare predicted epitopes to the vaccine, we analyzed predicted binding affinity and evolutionary distance measurements. Comparisons between the vaccine and placebo arm did not reveal robust evidence for a T cell driven sieve effect, although some differences were noted in Env-V2 (0.022≤p-value≤0.231). The paucity of CD8 T cell responses identified following RV144 vaccination, with no evidence for V2 specificity, considered together both with the association of decreased infection risk in RV 144 participants with V-specific antibody responses and a V2 sieve effect, lead us to hypothesize that this sieve effect was not T cell specific. Overall, our results did not reveal a strong differential impact of vaccine-induced T cell responses among breakthrough infections in RV144 participants.

  13. Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

  14. Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivien Jørgensen

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: Ambulatory individuals have a high risk of falling and of fall-related injuries. Fall history, fear of falling and walking speed could predict recurrent falls and injurious falls. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these findings. [Jørgensen V, Butler Forslund E, Opheim A, Franzén E, Wahman K, Hultling C, Seiger Å, Ståhle A, Stanghelle JK, Roaldsen KS (2017 Falls and fear of falling predict future falls and related injuries in ambulatory individuals with spinal cord injury: a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Physiotherapy 63: 108–113

  15. Using the Past to Predict the Future: The Public Land Survey, 19th Century Climate and the PalEON Project

    OpenAIRE

    Goring, Simon; Williams, Jack; Ruid, Madeline; McLachlan, Jason; Jackson, Stephen; Paciorek, Chris; Mladenoff, David; Cogbill, Charlie; Record, Sydne; Dietze, Michael C.

    2013-01-01

    Presentation for the Yi-Fu Seminar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Department of Geography.  Presented on February 15th by Simon Goring.  The talk abstract is here:   Using Historical Records to Help Predict the Future: The Public Land Survey, 19th Century Climate and the PalEON Project Predicting the response of organisms to changing climates in the 21st century is a major conservation challenge. Standard practice uses the relationship between modern species ranges and climate...

  16. Meeting Report: FutureTox II: Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology “Pathways to Prediction: In Vitro and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology”

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Society of Toxicology (SOT) held avery successful FutureTox II Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology (CCT) Conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on January 16th and 17th, 2014. There were over 291 attendees representing industry, government and academia; the sessions were ...

  17. Age of first use of energy beverages predicts future maximal consumption among naval pilot and flight officer candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Sather

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: A lower age of first energy drink use suggests higher risk of single-occasion heavy episodic consumption in this military population. Researchers should further explore the relationship of early onset energy drink consumption and potential future health risks.

  18. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  19. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  20. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    Future contingents are contingent statements about the future — such as future events, actions, states etc. To qualify as contingent the predicted event, state, action or whatever is at stake must neither be impossible nor inevitable. Statements such as “My mother shall go to London” or “There...... will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars...

  1. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    Future contingents are contingent statements about the future — such as future events, actions, states etc. To qualify as contingent the predicted event, state, action or whatever is at stake must neither be impossible nor inevitable. Statements such as “My mother shall go to London” or “There...... will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars...

  2. History of unemployment predicts future elevations in C-reactive protein among male participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicki-Deverts, Denise; Cohen, Sheldon; Matthews, Karen A; Cullen, Mark R

    2008-10-01

    Unemployment is associated with risk of future morbidity and premature mortality. To examine whether unemployment history predicts future C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in male participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. Unemployment, body mass index (BMI), and health behaviors were measured at 7, 10, and 15 years post-recruitment. CRP was measured at Years 7 and 15. Having a history of unemployment at Year 10 was associated with higher CRP at Year 15, independent of age, race, BMI, Year 7 CRP, Year 15 unemployment, and average income across Years 10-15. Poor health practices and depressive symptoms explained 22% of the association, but Year 10 unemployment history remained a significant predictor. Findings did not differ across age, race, education, or income. Discrete episodes of unemployment may have long-term implications for future CRP levels.

  3. Predicting Fire-Regime Responses to Climate Change Over the Past Millennium: Implications of Paleodata-Model Comparisons for Future Projections of Fire Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, A. M.; Higuera, P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Duffy, P.; Hu, F.

    2016-12-01

    Statistical models of fire-climate relationships are an important tool for anticipating fire-regime responses to future climate change. An important limitation of this approach is the reliance on observations from recent decades. Understanding how well modern fire-climate relationships apply to periods outside of the observational record is thus critical for using these models to anticipate future fire activity. In previous work, we developed models that accurately predict the spatial distribution of fire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, using empirical relationships with summer temperature and annual moisture availability from 1950-2009. Here, we inform these models with downscaled global climate model (GCM) output for the past millennium (850-1850 CE), and compared predictions to reconstructed levels of fire activity derived from 25 paleoecological records in Alaska. Statistical models accurately predicted fire activity over the past millennium in boreal forests. Predicted mean fire return intervals (MFIs) ranged from 95-125 yrs, compared to 71-179 yrs in the paleo records (mean bias = 10 yrs). In contrast, statistical models significantly underestimated fire activity in the most flammable region of Alaskan tundra, predicting MFIs at least twice as long as those based on paleodata (mean bias = -712 yrs). This mismatch is due to at least two reasons. First, based on modern fire-climate relationships, this tundra region sits near a temperature threshold to burning, such that small changes in temperature result in large changes in predicted fire activity. Second, downscaled GCM-estimated temperatures are cooler than paleo-temperature estimates suggest, placing this tundra region below the temperature threshold to burning. Past-millennium GCM temperatures need to be increased by 1.0-1.5 °C for model predictions to agree with paleo-estimates of fire activity (mean bias = -35 yrs), comparable to differences between GCM and paleo-temperature estimates

  4. Biomarkers for the prediction of acute kidney injury: A narrative review on current status and future challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.R.H. de Geus (Hilde); M.G.H. Betjes (Michiel); J. Bakker (Jan)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractAcute kidney injury (AKI) is strongly associated with increased morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. Efforts to change its clinical course have failed because clinically available therapeutic measures are currently lacking, and early detection is impossible with serum

  5. Studying the Occupational Therapists Prediction Consistency of Future Manual Ability of 4-18 Years Old Cerebral Palsy’s Patients with Manual Ability Classification Sysyem (MACS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azade Riyahi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Determining the level of manual ability of children with cerebral palsy has significant role in scheduling care and providing supportive services by organizations such as the a social welfare office. Manual Ability Classification System (MACS is responsible for this critical matter. In Mazandaran Province, the prediction of manual ability is intuitive and is done without tools. This study aimed to investigate the consistency between operational therapists prediction of future manual function of children with cerebral palsy and MACS scale. Materials and Methods: This study was designed as a cross sectional trial. The study population consisted of 12 occupational therapists working in Mazandaran’s rehabilitation center under the social welfare office. Firstly, occupational therapists chose 100 children with cerebral palsy and classified their future manual ability into five levels according to their prediction. Then the researcher classified the children based on MACS scale. Finally, the amount of prediction consistency between therapists and researcher was statisticaly analyzed. Results: The weighted kappa coefficients of MACS scale were 0.671 in first level and 0.747 in fifth level that show good agreement in these two levels. This coefficient was 0.417 in third level and 0.444 in forth level that shows fair agreement. The weighted kappa coefficient was 0.358 in second level that indicates slight agreement. Conclusion: With prediction consistency between operational therapists and researcher, MACS is used as a suitable means for classifying the level of manual ability in children with cerebral palsy and predicting their needs to adaptive and auxiliary devices by occupational therapists in rehabilitation centers and social welfare offices.

  6. The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Fanny; Kunst, Anton

    2007-01-01

    We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently

  7. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  8. Evaluation of an ARPS-based canopy flow modeling system for use in future operational smoke prediction efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. T. Kiefer; S. Zhong; W. E. Heilman; J. J. Charney; X. Bian

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to develop a canopy flow modeling system based on the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model are discussed. The standard version of ARPS is modified to account for the effect of drag forces on mean and turbulent flow through a vegetation canopy, via production and sink terms in the momentum and subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) equations....

  9. Utilizing patterns of agricultural information-seeking by farmers to monitor and predict future changes in behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, E.; Mironova, G.

    2013-01-01

    The rate of information seeking about an agricultural innovation can be used to predict the rate of adoption of the innovation. A study over 15 years shows that farmers who increased information seeking about farm computers were more likely to adopt. Those whose information seeking declined were less likely to adopt, and some who had adopted actually discontinued use.

  10. Current and future perspectives on the development, evaluation and application of in silico approaches for predicting toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safety-related problems continue to be one of the major reasons of attrition in drug development. Non-testing approaches to predict toxicity could form part of the solution. This review provides a perspective of current status of non-testing approaches available for the predictio...

  11. Strongly correlating liquids and their isomorphs

    OpenAIRE

    Pedersen, Ulf R.; Gnan, Nicoletta; Bailey, Nicholas P.; Schröder, Thomas B.; Dyre, Jeppe C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper summarizes the properties of strongly correlating liquids, i.e., liquids with strong correlations between virial and potential energy equilibrium fluctuations at constant volume. We proceed to focus on the experimental predictions for strongly correlating glass-forming liquids. These predictions include i) density scaling, ii) isochronal superposition, iii) that there is a single function from which all frequency-dependent viscoelastic response functions may be calculated, iv) that...

  12. Testing strong interaction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.

    1979-01-01

    The author discusses possible tests of the current theories of the strong interaction, in particular, quantum chromodynamics. High energy e + e - interactions should provide an excellent means of studying the strong force. (W.D.L.)

  13. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Kukwa; Marta Kolanowska

    2016-01-01

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of ...

  14. Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

    2018-03-01

    Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

  15. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    -tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive......There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think...... material of all types, including providing a battery of critical tests to apply to any forecast to assess its validity, and judge how to fit it into everyday management thinking. The book synthesizes information assessment skills and future studies tools into a single template that allows managers to apply...

  16. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  17. Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H.S. [David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California Los Angeles, Ahmanson Translational Imaging Division, Department of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Collaboration: the Alzheimer' sDisease Neuroimaging Initiative

    2017-08-15

    The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET. (orig.)

  18. Predicting impacts of future human population growth and development on occupancy rates of forest-dependent birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Michelle L.; Donovan, Therese; Schwenk, W. Scott; Theobald, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Forest loss and fragmentation are among the largest threats to forest-dwelling wildlife species today, and projected increases in human population growth are expected to increase these threats in the next century. We combined spatially-explicit growth models with wildlife distribution models to predict the effects of human development on 5 forest-dependent bird species in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, USA. We used single-species occupancy models to derive the probability of occupancy for each species across the study area in the years 2000 and 2050. Over half a million new housing units were predicted to be added to the landscape. The maximum change in housing density was nearly 30 houses per hectare; however, 30% of the towns in the study area were projected to add less than 1 housing unit per hectare. In the face of predicted human growth, the overall occupancy of each species decreased by as much as 38% (ranging from 19% to 38% declines in the worst-case scenario) in the year 2050. These declines were greater outside of protected areas than within protected lands. Ninety-seven percent of towns experienced some decline in species occupancy within their borders, highlighting the value of spatially-explicit models. The mean decrease in occupancy probability within towns ranged from 3% for hairy woodpecker to 8% for ovenbird and hermit thrush. Reductions in occupancy probability occurred on the perimeters of cities and towns where exurban development is predicted to increase in the study area. This spatial approach to wildlife planning provides data to evaluate trade-offs between development scenarios and forest-dependent wildlife species.

  19. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Brindle, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors.\\ud \\ud Design: Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database.\\ud \\ud Participants: 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the s...

  20. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches.\\ud \\ud Design: Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to valid...

  1. Strong spatial variability in trace gas dynamics following experimental drought in a humid tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tana Wood; W. L. Silver

    2012-01-01

    [1] Soil moisture is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems, strongly affecting carbon (C) and nutrient availability as well as trace gas production and consumption in soils. Models predict increasing drought frequency in tropical forest ecosystems, which could feed back on future climate change directly via effects on trace gasdynamics and...

  2. Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

  3. The Future of Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José

    2013-01-01

    Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011.......Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011....

  4. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  5. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Prediction of Future Trends in North-west Region of India: A six-year ICTC-based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Nitya; Hooja, Saroj; Sinha, Parul; Mathur, Anuj; Singhal, Anita; Vyas, Leela

    2009-07-01

    The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S) were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161), 11.8% (519/4381), 11.1% (649/5867), 13% (908/6983), 14% (1385/9911) and 17.34% (1756/10133) in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  6. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  7. Internal prostatic architecture on transrectal ultrasonography predicts future prostatic growth: natural history of prostatic hyperplasia in a 15-year longitudinal community-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuta, Fumimasa; Masumori, Naoya; Mori, Mitsuru; Tsukamoto, Taiji

    2011-05-01

    From 1992 to 1993, we conducted a cross-sectional community-based study to clarify the prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia in Japanese men aged 40-79. Based on the results, we hypothesized that the internal prostatic architecture (IPA) on transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) would predict future prostatic growth. We investigated the changes in prostate volume (PV) over time and validated our hypothesis on predictors for future prostatic growth. Of 319 participants in the initial study, the PV of 104 men was evaluated by TRUS with approximately a 15-year follow-up in the current study. We categorized prostates into three groups based on the IPA: group 1, invisible transition zone (TZ); group 2, visible TZ with an unclear border; and group 3, visible TZ with a clear border. Overall PV significantly increased from 17.4  ml to 23.9  ml (P  <  0.001). The median PV changes by age decade (40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s) were 5.5, 5.6, 8.6, and 11.1  ml, respectively. Those by baseline PV < 20  ml, 20-25  ml, and ≥ 25  ml were 5.3, 9.8, and 14.7  ml, respectively. Those by baseline IPA for group 1, group 2, and group 3 were 4.7, 6.5, and 17.3  ml, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that PV (P  =  0.027) and the IPA (P  <  0.001) at baseline were independent predictors for future prostatic growth. This was the first study by longitudinal community-based study that the PV in Japanese men increased during 15 years. The IPA on TRUS is useful for predicting future prostatic growth. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Wellbore Flow Treatment Used to Predict Radioactive Brine Releases to the Surface from Future Drilling Penetrations into th Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), New Mexico, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hadgu, T.; O' Brien, D.G.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

    1998-10-15

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mined geologic repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA. This site is designed for the permanent burial of transuranic radioactive waste generated by defense related activities. The waste produces gases when exposed to brine. This gas generation may result in increased pressures over time. Thereforq a future driller that unknowingly penetrates through the site may experience a blowout This paper describes the methodology used to predict the resultant volumes of contaminated brine released to the surface.

  9. The prediction of PAHs bioavailability in soils using chemical methods: state of the art and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cachada, A; Pereira, R; da Silva, E Ferreira; Duarte, A C

    2014-02-15

    The evaluation of the available fraction of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) is extremely important for assessing their risk to the environment and human health. This available fraction, which can be solubilized and/or easily extracted, is believed to be the most accessible for bioaccumulation, biosorption and/or transformation by organisms. Based on this, two main types of chemical methods have been developed, closely related to the concepts of bioaccessibility and freely available concentrations: non-exhaustive extractions and biomimetic methods. Since bioavailability is species and compound specific, this work focused only in one of the most widespread group of HOCs in soils: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This study aims at producing a state of the art knowledge base on bioavailability and chemical availability of PAHs in soils, clarifying which chemical methods can provide a better prediction of an organism exposure, and which are the most promising ones. Therefore, a review of the processes involved on PAHs availability to microorganisms, earthworms and plants was performed and the outputs given by the different chemical methods were evaluated. The suitability of chemical methods to predict bioavailability of the 16 US EPA PAHs in dissimilar naturally contaminated soils was not yet demonstrated, being especially difficult for high molecular weight compounds. Even though the potential to predict microbial mineralization using non-exhaustive extractions is promising, it will be very difficult to achieve for earthworms and plants, due to the complexity of accumulation mechanisms which are not taken into account by chemical methods. Yet, the existing models could be improved by determining compound, species and site specific parameters. Moreover, chemical availability can be very useful to understand the bioavailability processes and the behavior of PAHs in soils. The inclusion of chemical methods on risk assessment has been suggested and it is

  10. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  11. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  12. Chimeric antigen receptor T cells for the treatment of cancer and the future of preclinical models for predicting their toxicities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegner, Anja

    2017-06-01

    Chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy has achieved highly promising results in clinical trials, particularly in B-cell malignancies. However, reports of serious adverse events including a number of patient deaths have raised concerns about safety of this treatment. Presently available preclinical models are not designed for predicting toxicities seen in human patients. Besides choosing the right animal model, careful considerations must be taken in chimeric antigen receptor T-cell design and the amount of T cells infused. The development of more sophisticated in vitro models and humanized mouse models for preclinical modeling and toxicity tests will help us to improve the design of clinical trials in cancer immunotherapy.

  13. Age of first use of energy beverages predicts future maximal consumption among naval pilot and flight officer candidates

    OpenAIRE

    E. Sather, Thomas; L. Woolsey, Conrad; Jr, Ronald; Evans Jr, Marion; Fred Cromartie, Fred Cromartie

    2017-01-01

    Background: Energy drinks are popular beverages that can have adverse long-term health effects when consumed by children and adolescents. This study sought to determine if the age of first energy drink use in a U.S. military population is predictive of the maximum number of energy drinks consumed during a single day and/or single occasion (operationally defined as a couple of hours; e.g., a night out, during studying or sport session). Method: Student U.S. naval aviator and naval flight of...

  14. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005-2007) and times...

  15. Predicting future major depression and persistent depressive symptoms: Development of a prognostic screener and PHQ-4 cutoffs in breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Karen L; Wiley, Joshua F; Crespi, Catherine M; Krull, Jennifer L; Stanton, Annette L

    2018-02-01

    Create a brief, self-report screener for recently diagnosed breast cancer patients to identify patients at risk of future depression. Breast cancer patients (N = 410) within 2 ± 1 months after diagnosis provided data on depression vulnerability. Depression outcomes were defined as a high depressive symptom trajectory or a major depressive episode during 16 months after diagnosis. Stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees identified 7 items highly predictive for the depression outcomes from a pool of 219 candidate depression vulnerability items. Three of the 7 items were from the Patient Health Questionnaire 4 (PHQ-4), a validated screener for current anxiety/depressive disorder that has not been tested to identify risk for future depression. Thresholds classifying patients as high or low risk on the new Depression Risk Questionnaire 7 (DRQ-7) and the PHQ-4 were obtained. Predictive performance of the DRQ-7 and PHQ-4 was assessed on a holdout validation subsample. DRQ-7 items assess loneliness, irritability, persistent sadness, and low acceptance of emotion as well as 3 items from the PHQ-4 (anhedonia, depressed mood, and worry). A DRQ-7 score of ≥6/23 identified depression outcomes with 0.73 specificity, 0.83 sensitivity, 0.68 positive predictive value, and 0.86 negative predictive value. A PHQ-4 score of ≥3/12 performed moderately well but less accurately than the DRQ-7 (net reclassification improvement = 10%; 95% CI [0.5-16]). The DRQ-7 and the PHQ-4 with a new cutoff score are clinically accessible screeners for risk of depression in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients. Use of the screener to select patients for preventive interventions awaits validation of the screener in other samples. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior Predict Dietary Intention and Future Dieting in an Ethnically Diverse Sample of Overweight and Obese Veterans Attending Medical Clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N.; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K.

    2016-01-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans’ numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one’s weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior’s (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB’s ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans’ facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. PMID:26792774

  17. Can the Theory of Planned Behavior predict dietary intention and future dieting in an ethnically diverse sample of overweight and obese veterans attending medical clinics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Denise N; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K

    2016-04-01

    Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans' numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one's weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior's (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB's ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans' facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting the future: opportunities and challenges for the chemical industry to apply 21st-century toxicity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settivari, Raja S; Ball, Nicholas; Murphy, Lynea; Rasoulpour, Reza; Boverhof, Darrell R; Carney, Edward W

    2015-03-01

    Interest in applying 21st-century toxicity testing tools for safety assessment of industrial chemicals is growing. Whereas conventional toxicology uses mainly animal-based, descriptive methods, a paradigm shift is emerging in which computational approaches, systems biology, high-throughput in vitro toxicity assays, and high-throughput exposure assessments are beginning to be applied to mechanism-based risk assessments in a time- and resource-efficient fashion. Here we describe recent advances in predictive safety assessment, with a focus on their strategic application to meet the changing demands of the chemical industry and its stakeholders. The opportunities to apply these new approaches is extensive and include screening of new chemicals, informing the design of safer and more sustainable chemical alternatives, filling information gaps on data-poor chemicals already in commerce, strengthening read-across methodology for categories of chemicals sharing similar modes of action, and optimizing the design of reduced-risk product formulations. Finally, we discuss how these predictive approaches dovetail with in vivo integrated testing strategies within repeated-dose regulatory toxicity studies, which are in line with 3Rs principles to refine, reduce, and replace animal testing. Strategic application of these tools is the foundation for informed and efficient safety assessment testing strategies that can be applied at all stages of the product-development process.

  19. Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukwa, Martin; Kolanowska, Marta

    2016-12-08

    The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of its habitats using ecological niche modeling tools. The general glacial potential range of the studied species was wider than it is nowadays and its niches coverage decreased by almost 25% since last glacial maximum. The refugial areas were covered by cool and dry grasslands and scrubs and suitable niches in South America were located near the glacier limit. According to our analyses the further climate changes will not significantly influence the distribution of the suitable niches of O. austroamericana.

  20. Rheumatology in the community of Madrid: current availability of rheumatologists and future needs using a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro y De Mercado, Pablo; Blasco Bravo, Antonio Javier; Lázaro y De Mercado, Ignacio; Castañeda, Santos; López Robledillo, Juan Carlos

    2013-01-01

    To: 1) describe the distribution of the public sector rheumatologists; 2) identify variables on which the workload in Rheumatology depends; and 3) build a predictive model on the need of rheumatologists for the next 10 years, in the Community of Madrid (CM). The information was obtained through structured questionnaires sent to all services/units of Rheumatology of public hospitals in the CM. The population figures, current and forecasted, were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. A predictive model was built based on information about the current and foreseeable supply, current and foreseeable demand, and the assumptions and criteria used to match supply with demand. The underlying uncertainty in the model was assessed by sensitivity analysis. In the CM in 2011 there were 150 staff rheumatologists and 49 residents in 27 centers, which is equivalent to one rheumatologist for every 33,280 inhabitants in the general population, and one for every 4,996 inhabitants over 65 years. To keep the level of assistance of 2011 in 2021 in the general population, it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more rheumatologists in scenarios of demand higher than 15%. However, to keep the level of assistance in the population over 65 years of age it would be necessary to train more residents or hire more specialists even without increased demand. The model developed may be very useful for planning, with the CM policy makers, the needs of human resources in Rheumatology in the coming years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tosca eBallerini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear.

  2. Development of the prediction technology of cable disconnection of in-core neutron detector for the future high-temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimazaki, Yosuke; Sawahata, Hiroaki; Kawamoto, Taiki; Suzuki, Hisashi; Shinohara, Masanori; Honda, Yuki; Katsuyama, Kozo; Takada, Shoji; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance technologies for the reactor system have been developed by using the high-temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR). One of the important purposes of development is to accumulate the experiences and data to satisfy the availability of operation up to 90% by shortening the duration of the periodical maintenance for the future HTGRs by shifting from the time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The technical issue of the maintenance of in-core neutron detector, wide range monitor (WRM), is to predict the malfunction caused by cable disconnection to plan the replacement schedule. This is because that it is difficult to observe directly inside of the WRM in detail. The electrical inspection method was proposed to detect and predict the cable disconnection of the WRM by remote monitoring from outside of the reactor by using the time domain reflectometry and so on. The disconnection position, which was specified by the electrical method, was identified by non-destructive and destructive inspection. The accumulated data is expected to be contributed for advanced maintenance of future HTGRs. (author)

  3. Prediction of electric vehicle penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The object of this report is to present the current market status of plug-in-electric : vehicles (PEVs) and to predict their future penetration within the world and U.S. : markets. The sales values for 2016 show a strong year of PEV sales both in the...

  4. Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fries

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

  5. Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

    2017-12-01

    Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

  6. Applying the theory of island biogeography to emerging pathogens: toward predicting the sources of future emerging zoonotic and vector-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reperant, Leslie A

    2010-03-01

    Abstract Emerging infectious diseases are recognized as increasing threats to public and animal health, global economy, and social and political stability. Climate change, environmental changes, changes in human demographics and behaviors, and the rise of global trade and travel are most-often-cited drivers for the emergence of infectious diseases in human and animal populations (Schrag and Wiener 1995 , Daszak et al. 2001 , Dobson and Foufopoulos 2001 , May et al. 2001 , Taylor et al. 2001 , Antia et al. 2003 , IOM 2003 , Kuiken et al. 2003 , Weiss and McMichael 2004 , Wolfe et al. 2005 , Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria 2005 , Chomel et al. 2007 , Woolhouse and Gaunt 2007 , Jones et al. 2008 ). Emerging pathogens are more likely to be zoonotic or vector-borne with a broad host range (Daszak et al. 2000 , Taylor et al. 2001 , Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria 2005 , Jones et al. 2008 ). Emerging pathogens are also more frequently RNA viruses (Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria 2005 ), which may better adapt to and establish in novel host species (Antia et al. 2003 , Andre and Day 2005 , Woolhouse et al. 2005 ). Determining the factors driving disease emergence eventually aims at assisting the prediction of the future emergence of infectious diseases. However, because of the multifactorial nature of the drivers involved (IOM 2003 ), our ability to predict which pathogens may arise in human or animal populations in the future remains limited (WHO/FAO/OIE 2004 ). In particular, the ability to identify the animal reservoirs where the greatest risks to human health will originate was deemed improbable (WHO/FAO/OIE 2004 ). Applying the theory of island biogeography (MacArthur and Wilson 1967 ) to emerging pathogens identifies (i) interactions between recipient host species and species sources of pathogens (including vector species), (ii) interactions within species sources of pathogens, and (iii) interactions within recipient host species, as mechanisms directly driving disease

  7. Predictive value of semi-quantitative MRI-based scoring systems for future knee replacement: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Eng, John; Demehri, Shadpour [Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Musculoskeletal Radiology, Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Baltimore, MD (United States); Zikria, Bashir [Johns Hopkins University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Baltimore, MD (United States); Carrino, John A. [Hospital for Special Surgery, Department of Radiology and Imaging, New York, NY (United States)

    2015-11-15

    To evaluate, in a confirmatory fashion, whether baseline and change from baseline to 24-month follow-up in cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions and meniscal damage are predictors of knee replacement (KR) in subjects with a high risk of osteoarthritis (OA), independent of the level of physical activity, symptom severity and radiographic abnormalities. Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative's (OAI) baseline and 24-month follow-up knee MRIs of 115 patients (age range: 45-78 years; 48 % female; BMI: 20.9-48.7) were analyzed. Cartilage, bone marrow and menisci were semi-quantitatively scored according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) and Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score (BLOKS) systems in all compartments. Baseline and 24-month interval changes in structural tissue damage assessed by BLOKS and WORMS were used as predictors of KR independent of clinical and radiographic parameters using Cox hazard analysis. Adjustments were performed for age, gender, BMI and physical activity (Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly: PASE), Western Ontario and McMaster Questionnaire (WOMAC) total score and radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score. BLOKS and WORMS baseline cartilage scores were predictors of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. One score increase in the average baseline BLOKS full-thickness cartilage defect score was associated with a [hazard ratio (95 % CI)] 13.55 (3.61-50.89) times greater risk of KR independent of the PASE, WOMAC and KL score. Net reclassification improvements (NRIs) of the additional evaluation of 24-month follow-up MRI scores and assessment of changes were not significant for prediction of KR (NRI range: - 7.23 - 24.8 %). The BLOKS cartilage score for full-thickness cartilage defects had the highest hazard for KR. Follow-up MRI changes in structural tissue damage, detected by BLOKS and WORMS cartilage, bone marrow or meniscus scores (up to 24 months) had no significant predictive value in addition

  8. Predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiac events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus: A prospective study in 716 patients over 8 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tittus Janine

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To establish an efficient prophylaxis of coronary artery disease reliable risk stratification is crucial, especially in the high risk population of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. This prospective study determined the predictive value of coronary calcifications for future cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus. Methods We included 716 patients suffering from diabetes mellitus (430 men, 286 women, age 55.2 ± 15.2 years in this study. On study entry all patients were asymptomatic and had no history of coronary artery disease. In addition, all patients showed no signs of coronary artery disease in ECG, stress ECG or echocardiography. Coronary calcifications were determined with the Imatron C 150 XP electron beam computed tomograph. For quantification of coronary calcifications we calculated the Agatston score. After a mean observation period of 8.1 ± 1.1 years patients were contacted and the event rate of cardiac death (CD and myocardial infarction (MI was determined. Results During the observation period 40 patients suffered from MI, 36 patients died from acute CD. The initial Agatston score in patients that suffered from MI or died from CD (475 ± 208 was significantly higher compared to those without cardiac events (236 ± 199, p Conclusion By determination of coronary calcifications patients at risk for future MI and CD could be identified within an asymptomatic high risk group of patients suffering from diabetes mellitus. On the other hand future events could be excluded in patients without coronary calcifications.

  9. The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, U; Haywood, A M; Lunt, D J

    2009-01-13

    During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560 ppmv atmospheric CO2. In accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, resulting in a northward shift of the taiga-tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannah and woodland in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data-model comparison reveals differences in the distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider multipliers associated with 'long-term' climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome distributions, at higher atmospheric CO2 levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century.

  10. RECENT ADVANCES IN FUNCTIONAL REGION PREDICTION BY USING STRUCTURAL AND EVOLUTIONARY INFORMATION – REMAINING PROBLEMS AND FUTURE EXTENSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wataru Nemoto

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Structural genomics projects have solved many new structures with unknown functions. One strategy to investigate the function of a structure is to computationally find the functionally important residues or regions on it. Therefore, the development of functional region prediction methods has become an important research subject. An effective approach is to use a method employing structural and evolutionary information, such as the evolutionary trace (ET method. ET ranks the residues of a protein structure by calculating the scores for relative evolutionary importance, and locates functionally important sites by identifying spatial clusters of highly ranked residues. After ET was developed, numerous ET-like methods were subsequently reported, and many of them are in practical use, although they require certain conditions. In this mini review, we first introduce the remaining problems and the recent improvements in the methods using structural and evolutionary information. We then summarize the recent developments of the methods. Finally, we conclude by describing possible extensions of the evolution- and structure-based methods.

  11. From practice employee to (co-)owner: young GPs predict their future careers: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gisler, Luzia Birgit; Bachofner, Marius; Moser-Bucher, Cora Nina; Scherz, Nathalie; Streit, Sven

    2017-02-02

    In Switzerland, the mean age of GPs in 1993 was 46. In 2015, it had increased to 55, and GPs over 65 made up 15% of the workforce of the about 6000 GPs. As older, self-employed GPs retire, young doctors will be needed to fill their positions and eventually take over their practices. We set out to determine what kind of employment young GPs wanted, if they thought their preference would change over time, and the working conditions and factors most important in their choice of practice. We administered a cross-sectional online survey to members of the Swiss Young General Practitioners Association (n = 443). Our survey relied on closed questions, ratings of attractiveness of fictional job ads, and an open question to capture participants' characteristics, and their preferred type of practice and working conditions. We received 270 (61%) replies. Most were women (71%) and wanted to work in the suburbs or countryside in small GP-owned group practices, with up to five colleagues. Most intended to work part-time: mean desired workload was 78% for men and 66% for women. Positive working climate was a major factor in choosing a GP practice. Most participants projected a career arc from employment to ownership or co-ownership of a practice within five years; only 7-9% preferred to remain employees. Young and future GPs in Switzerland want to work part-time in small, GP-owned group practices. Practices should offer them employment opportunities with a path to (co-)ownership.

  12. Incremental prognostic value of cardiac function assessed by ECG-gated myocardial perfusion SPECT for the prediction of future acute coronary syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Naoya; Sato, Yuichi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

    2008-01-01

    The prognostic value of electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated rest 201 T1/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS: myocardial infarction (MI) and unstable angina (UA)) and the implications of ejection fraction (EF) has not yet been defined in Japanese. The 1,895 patients were followed up for the occurrence ACS. The mean follow-up interval was 26.9±15.5 months. The 142 patients with revascularization within 60 days were censored. Summed stress score (SSS) and summed difference score (SDS) were calculated. The 19 MI and 29 UA occurred (1.1% and 1.6%, respectively). Univariate Cox analysis showed that hypertension (Wald 5.09, p<0.05), poststress EF (Wald 10.9, p<0.01), SSS (Wald 12.4, p<0.001) and SDS (Wald 18.7, p<0.001) were significant predictors of ACS. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that hypertension (Wald 4.27, p<0.05) and SDS (Wald 8.59, p<0.01) were independent predictors. When multiple clinical risk factors (number of coronary risk factors ≥2), significant ischemia (SDS≥4) and low EF (EF<45%) were applied to multivariate Cox analysis, the combination of significant ischemia and low EF showed the highest predictive value (Wald 11.9; p<0.001) for future ACS. Poststress EF added incremental prognostic value for the prediction of ACS. (author)

  13. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Brindle, Peter

    2017-05-23

    Objectives  To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors. Design  Prospective open cohort study. Setting  General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database. Participants  1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline. Methods  Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measures  Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records

  14. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-11-20

    Objectives  To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches. Design  Prospective open cohort study. Setting  Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to validate the scores. Participants  11.5 million people aged 25-84 and free of diabetes at baseline: 8.87 million in the derivation cohort and 2.63 million in the validation cohort. Methods  Cox proportional hazards models were used in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QDiabetes (age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes in a first degree relative, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and regular use of corticosteroids) and new risk factors: atypical antipsychotics, statins, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disability, gestational diabetes, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Additional models included fasting blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HBA1c). Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measure  Incident type 2 diabetes recorded on the general practice record. Results  In the derivation cohort, 178 314 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during follow-up arising from 42.72 million person years of observation. In the validation cohort, 62 326 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified from 14.32 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met our model inclusion criteria. Model A included

  15. Baseline characteristic of patients presenting with lacunar stroke and cerebral small vessel disease may predict future development of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlovic, Aleksandra M; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Zidverc Trajkovic, Jasna; Svabic Medjedovic, Tamara; Veselinovic, Nikola; Radojicic, Aleksandra; Mijajlovic, Milija; Tomic, Gordana; Jovanovic, Zagorka; Norton, Melanie; Sternic, Nada

    2016-01-01

    Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is associated with late-onset depression and increases the risk for depression after stroke. We aimed to investigate baseline predictors of depression after long-term follow-up in patients with SVD, initially presenting with first-ever lacunar stroke, free of depression and cognitive impairment. A total of 294 patients with SVD were evaluated 3-5 years after the qualifying event. We analyzed baseline demographic data, vascular risk factors, functional status expressed as a score on modified Rankin Scale (mRS), cognitive status, presence of depression, total number of lacunar infarcts and severity of white matter hyperintensities (WMH) on MRI with Age-Related White Matter Changes scale total score (tARWMC) and Fazekas scale periventricular and deep subcortical scores. On follow-up, depression was registered in 117 (39.8%) SVD patients. At the baseline, patients with depression compared with non-depressed were older (64.4 vs 60.9 years; p = 0.007), had higher mRS score (2.8 ± 0.7 vs 1.5 ± 0.7; p depressed patients more frequently exhibited cognitive decline (75.2% depressed vs 56.5% non-depressed; p = 0.003). No difference was detected in risk factor frequency between groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted by age and gender revealed independent predictors of depression: baseline mRS >2 (HR 2.17, 95%CI 1.74-2.72; p cognitive decline on follow-up (HR 1.80, 95%CI 1.12-2.89; p = 0.015). Baseline functional status and severity of WMH and development of cognitive decline predict the occurence of late-onset depression in patients with SVD. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

    2015-11-11

    During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Junko; Ohisa, Masayuki; Sugiyama, Aya; Nishida, Kazuo; Inoue, Shingo; Shirasaka, Takuma

    2016-11-01

    Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls. Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections. We estimated that the number of blood donations increased from 5,020,000 in 2008 to 5,260,000 in 2012, but will decrease to 4,770,000 units by 2025. In particular, the number of donors in their 20s and 30s decreased every year. Moreover, the number of donations required to supply blood products would have been increased from 5,390,000 in 2012 to 5,660,000 units in 2025. Thus, the estimated shortfall of blood donations is expected to increase each year from 140,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2025 and then more than double to 1,670,000 in 2050. If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources. © 2016 AABB.

  18. Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  19. Thermal performance prediction and sensitivity analysis for future deployment of molten salt cavity receiver solar power plants in Algeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudaoud, S.; Khellaf, A.; Mohammedi, K.; Behar, O.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Performance of power plant with molten salt cavity receiver is assessed. • A method has been used to optimize the plant solar multiple, capacity factor and LEC. • Comparison of the simulated results to those of PS20 has shown good agreement. • Higher fossil fuel fraction reduces the LEC and increases the capacity factor. • Highland and Sahara regions are suitable for CRS plants deployment. - Abstract: Of all Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies available today, the molten salt solar power plant appears to be the most important option for providing a major share of the clean and renewable electricity needed in the future. In the present paper, a technical and economic analysis for the implementation of a probable molten salt cavity receiver thermal power plant in Algeria has been carried out. In order to do so, we have investigated the effect of solar field size, storage capacity factor, solar radiation intensity, hybridization and power plant capacity on the thermal efficiency and electricity cost of the selected plant. The system advisor model has been used to perform the technical performance and the economic assessment for different locations (coastal, highland and Sahara regions) in Algeria. Taking into account various factors, a method has been applied to optimize the solar multiple and the capacity factor of the plant, to get a trade-off between the incremental investment costs of the heliostat field and the thermal energy storage. The analysis has shown that the use of higher fossil fuel fraction significantly reduces the levelized electricity cost (LEC) and sensibly increases the capacity factor (CF). The present study indicates that hybrid molten salt solar tower power technology is very promising. The CF and the LEC have been found to be respectively of the order of 71% and 0.35 $/kW e . For solar-only power plants, these parameters are respectively about 27% and 0.63 $/kW e . Therefore, hybrid central receiver systems are

  20. Strongly Correlated Topological Insulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-03

    Strongly Correlated Topological Insulators In the past year, the grant was used for work in the field of topological phases, with emphasis on finding...surface of topological insulators. In the past 3 years, we have started a new direction, that of fractional topological insulators. These are materials...in which a topologically nontrivial quasi-flat band is fractionally filled and then subject to strong interactions. The views, opinions and/or

  1. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  2. Past performance of assisted reproduction technologies as a model to predict future progress: a proposed addendum to Moore's law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jacques; Alikani, Mina; Bisignano, Alexander

    2012-12-01

    The ultimate goal of IVF is to achieve healthy, single, live births following each single-embryo transfer. A timeline for this eventuality has never been defined. National implantation rates from 2003-2010 provided by the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technologies (SART) in the USA were evaluated. Regression analysis was applied to the annual trends. A high correlation was noted showing a linear increase from year to year ranging between 0.3% and 1.5% when maternal age was not higher than 42. This relationship can be retrospectively applied to earlier SART data reports. This incline may be partly technology driven and resembles Moore's law, which describes annual improvements in microchip performance. Based on the assumption that technology will continue to drive progress, the length of time required to reach 100% implantation was calculated. The interval varied between 43 years (AD 2053) for the youngest age group (Assisted Reproductive Technologies (SART; www.sart.org). Through SART, individual clinic's outcomes may be assessed. Although live birth and pregnancy are considered the gold standard of success, the investigators took the approach that those outcomes are often biased due to transfer of multiple embryos. The present analysis was therefore performed on individual embryos, by using the implantation rate to compare national and individual clinic datasets. National implantation rates show a linear increase from year to year ranging between 0.3% and 1.5% for patients aged technology driven. This is an intriguing effect also seen in the computer industry where there has been a doubling of computer speed and memory for the past 47 years, a phenomenon anticipated by Moore's law. We predict that the annual increase in implantation will also continue as new technologies become available. Based on current trends, the length of time for 100% implantation rates was calculated. Time to achieving 100% implantation varied between 43 years (AD 2053) for the youngest

  3. Strong Cosmic Censorship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isenberg, James

    2017-01-01

    The Hawking-Penrose theorems tell us that solutions of Einstein's equations are generally singular, in the sense of the incompleteness of causal geodesics (the paths of physical observers). These singularities might be marked by the blowup of curvature and therefore crushing tidal forces, or by the breakdown of physical determinism. Penrose has conjectured (in his `Strong Cosmic Censorship Conjecture`) that it is generically unbounded curvature that causes singularities, rather than causal breakdown. The verification that ``AVTD behavior'' (marked by the domination of time derivatives over space derivatives) is generically present in a family of solutions has proven to be a useful tool for studying model versions of Strong Cosmic Censorship in that family. I discuss some of the history of Strong Cosmic Censorship, and then discuss what is known about AVTD behavior and Strong Cosmic Censorship in families of solutions defined by varying degrees of isometry, and discuss recent results which we believe will extend this knowledge and provide new support for Strong Cosmic Censorship. I also comment on some of the recent work on ``Weak Null Singularities'', and how this relates to Strong Cosmic Censorship.

  4. Scalar strong interaction hadron theory

    CERN Document Server

    Hoh, Fang Chao

    2015-01-01

    The scalar strong interaction hadron theory, SSI, is a first principles' and nonlocal theory at quantum mechanical level that provides an alternative to low energy QCD and Higgs related part of the standard model. The quark-quark interaction is scalar rather than color-vectorial. A set of equations of motion for mesons and another set for baryons have been constructed. This book provides an account of the present state of a theory supposedly still at its early stage of development. This work will facilitate researchers interested in entering into this field and serve as a basis for possible future development of this theory.

  5. Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and predictive validity tests showed that all 4 brief scales-hopelessness (H), anxiety sensitivity (AS), impulsivity (IMP), and sensation seeking (SS)-were related, in theoretically expected ways, to measures of substance use and other behavioral and emotional problems. Results also showed that when using the 4 SURPS subscales to identify adolescents "at risk," one can identify a high number of those who developed problems (high sensitivity scores ranging from 72 to 91%). And, as predicted, because each scale is related to specific substance and mental health problems, good specificity was obtained when using the individual personality subscales (e.g., most adolescents identified at high risk by the IMP scale developed conduct or drug use problems within the next 18 months [a high specificity score of 70 to 80%]). The SURPS is a valuable tool for identifying adolescents at high risk for substance misuse and other emotional and behavioral problems. Implications of findings for the use of this measure in future research and prevention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  6. Fractionated irradiation of meningiomas of the optic nerve: the average ocular dose is a predictive factor of the visual function future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abouaf, L.; Tilikete, C.; Vighetto, A.; Girard, N.; Mornex, F.; Lefort, T.

    2011-01-01

    As radiotherapy is efficient in terms of tumour growth control in the case of optic nerve meningiomas and allows a stabilization of visual acuity, but as radio-induced toxicity may threaten the functional benefit, the authors report a study which aimed at identifying predictive factors of a pejorative evolution of the visual function for patients submitted to radiotherapy for an optic nerve meningioma. Files of ten patients have been analyzed in terms clinical, radiological and dosimetric aspects. Visual acuity and visual field before and after conformational radiotherapy have been compared by means of the Wilcoxon Rank test. It appears that the visual function future can be threatened by irradiation side effects. Short communication

  7. Can an early perceptuo-motor skills assessment predict future performance in youth table tennis players? An observational study (1998-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Twisk, Jos W R; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2017-03-01

    This study intended to investigate the capability of the 4 test items "sprint", "agility", "speed while dribbling" and "throwing a ball" of the Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment used at the age of 7-10 years to predict table tennis performance (U13, U15 and U18) in an observational study. Data of 1191 young table tennis players, collected from 1998 to 2013, were analysed in univariable and multivariable logistic and linear regression models. The test items "sprint" and "throwing a ball" showed to be significant predictors for table tennis performance outcomes in boys (P talent programmes in table tennis as an additional method to objectively estimate a youth players' potential. Future research focusing on the inclusion of test items specifically assessing eye hand coordination and other domains, for example, the psychological and the environmental domain, related to table tennis performance are recommended.

  8. Strong Arcwise Connectedness

    OpenAIRE

    Espinoza, Benjamin; Gartside, Paul; Kovan-Bakan, Merve; Mamatelashvili, Ana

    2012-01-01

    A space is `n-strong arc connected' (n-sac) if for any n points in the space there is an arc in the space visiting them in order. A space is omega-strong arc connected (omega-sac) if it is n-sac for all n. We study these properties in finite graphs, regular continua, and rational continua. There are no 4-sac graphs, but there are 3-sac graphs and graphs which are 2-sac but not 3-sac. For every n there is an n-sac regular continuum, but no regular continuum is omega-sac. There is an omega-sac ...

  9. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (phepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Is the future blue-green? A review of the current model predictions of how climate change could affect pelagic freshwater cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, J Alex

    2012-04-01

    There is increasing evidence that recent changes in climate have had an effect on lake phytoplankton communities and it has been suggested that it is likely that Cyanobacteria will increase in relative abundance under the predicted future climate. However, testing such a qualitative prediction is challenging and usually requires some form of numerical computer model. Therefore, the lake modelling literature was reviewed for studies that examined the impact of climate change upon Cyanobacteria. These studies, taken collectively, generally show an increase in relative Cyanobacteria abundance with increasing water temperature, decreased flushing rate and increased nutrient loads. Furthermore, they suggest that whilst the direct effects of climate change on the lakes can change the timing of bloom events and Cyanobacteria abundance, the amount of phytoplankton biomass produced over a year is not enhanced directly by these changes. Also, warmer waters in the spring increased nutrient consumption by the phytoplankton community which in some lakes caused nitrogen limitation later in the year to the advantage of some nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria. Finally, it is also possible that an increase in Cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton biomass will lead to poorer energy flow to higher trophic levels due to their relatively poor edibility for zooplankton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A strong comeback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marier, D.

    1992-01-01

    This article presents the results of a financial rankings survey which show a strong economic activity in the independent energy industry. The topics of the article include advisor turnover, overseas banks, and the increase in public offerings. The article identifies the top project finance investors for new projects and restructurings and rankings for lenders

  12. Strong Electroweak Symmetry Breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstein, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    Models of spontaneous breaking of electroweak symmetry by a strong interaction do not have fine tuning/hierarchy problem. They are conceptually elegant and use the only mechanism of spontaneous breaking of a gauge symmetry that is known to occur in nature. The simplest model, minimal technicolor with extended technicolor interactions, is appealing because one can calculate by scaling up from QCD. But it is ruled out on many counts: inappropriately low quark and lepton masses (or excessive FCNC), bad electroweak data fits, light scalar and vector states, etc. However, nature may not choose the minimal model and then we are stuck: except possibly through lattice simulations, we are unable to compute and test the models. In the LHC era it therefore makes sense to abandon specific models (of strong EW breaking) and concentrate on generic features that may indicate discovery. The Technicolor Straw Man is not a model but a parametrized search strategy inspired by a remarkable generic feature of walking technicolor,...

  13. Plasmons in strong superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldo, M.; Ducoin, C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a study of the possible plasmon excitations that can occur in systems where strong superconductivity is present. In these systems the plasmon energy is comparable to or smaller than the pairing gap. As a prototype of these systems we consider the proton component of Neutron Star matter just below the crust when electron screening is not taken into account. For the realistic case we consider in detail the different aspects of the elementary excitations when the proton, electron components are considered within the Random-Phase Approximation generalized to the superfluid case, while the influence of the neutron component is considered only at qualitative level. Electron screening plays a major role in modifying the proton spectrum and spectral function. At the same time the electron plasmon is strongly modified and damped by the indirect coupling with the superfluid proton component, even at moderately low values of the gap. The excitation spectrum shows the interplay of the different components and their relevance for each excitation modes. The results are relevant for neutrino physics and thermodynamical processes in neutron stars. If electron screening is neglected, the spectral properties of the proton component show some resemblance with the physical situation in high-T c superconductors, and we briefly discuss similarities and differences in this connection. In a general prospect, the results of the study emphasize the role of Coulomb interaction in strong superconductors.

  14. Growth differentiation factor 15 predicts future insulin resistance and impaired glucose control in obese nondiabetic individuals: results from the XENDOS trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempf, Tibor; Guba-Quint, Anja; Torgerson, Jarl; Magnone, Maria Chiara; Haefliger, Carolina; Bobadilla, Maria; Wollert, Kai C

    2012-11-01

    Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is a stress-responsive cytokine that is increased in obesity and established type 2 diabetes. We assessed whether GDF-15 can predict future insulin resistance and impaired glucose control in obese nondiabetic individuals. Plasma GDF-15 concentrations were measured with an automated electrochemiluminescent immunoassay at baseline and after 4 years in 496 obese nondiabetic individuals (52% men, median age 48 years, median body mass index (BMI) 37.6 kg/m(2)) enrolled in the XENical in the prevention of Diabetes in Obese subjects (XENDOS) trial. The median GDF-15 concentration at baseline was 869 ng/l (interquartile range 723-1064 ng/l). GDF-15 was related to body weight, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, and insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)) (all P < 0.01). Changes in GDF-15 from baseline to 4 years were related to changes in body weight, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, and HOMA-IR (all P < 0.05). Baseline GDF-15 was associated with the risk to have prediabetes or diabetes at 4 years by univariate analysis (odds ratio (OR) FOR 1 unit increase in ln GDF-15, 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-6.1; P<0.001), and after multivariate adjustment for age, gender, treatment allocation (orlistat vs placebo), BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, and glucose control at baseline (OR 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.7; P=0.026). Similarly, baseline GDF-15 was independently associated with HOMA-IR at 4 years (P=0.024). This first longitudinal study of GDF-15 in a large cohort of obese individuals indicates that GDF-15 is related to abdominal obesity and insulin resistance and independently associated with future insulin resistance and abnormal glucose control.

  15. Repeated measurements of NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin T or C-reactive protein do not predict future allograft rejection in heart transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battes, Linda C; Caliskan, Kadir; Rizopoulos, Dimitris; Constantinescu, Alina A; Robertus, Jan L; Akkerhuis, Martijn; Manintveld, Olivier C; Boersma, Eric; Kardys, Isabella

    2015-03-01

    Studies on the prognostic value of serial biomarker assays for future occurrence of allograft rejection (AR) are scarce. We examined whether repeated measurements of NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), troponin T (TropT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict AR. From 2005 to 2010, 77 consecutive heart transplantation (HTx) recipients were included. The NT-proBNP, TropT, and CRP were measured at 16 ± 4 (mean ± standard deviation) consecutive routine endomyocardial biopsy surveillance visits during the first year of follow-up. Allograft rejection was defined as International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) grade 2R or higher at endomyocardial biopsy. Joint modeling was used to assess the association between repeated biomarker measurements and occurrence of future AR. Joint modeling accounts for dependence among repeated observations in individual patients. The mean age of the patients at HTx was 49 ± 9.2 years, and 68% were men. During the first year of follow-up, 1,136 biopsies and concurrent blood samples were obtained, and 56 patients (73%) experienced at least one episode of AR. All biomarkers were elevated directly after HTx and achieved steady-state after ∼ 12 weeks, both in patients with or without AR. No associations were present between the repeated measurements of NT-proBNP, TropT, or CRP and AR both early (weeks 0-12) and late (weeks 13-52) in the course after HTx (hazard ratios for weeks 13-52: 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.55-1.68), 0.67 (0.27-1.69), and 1.44 (0.90-2.30), respectively, per ln[unit]). Combining the three biomarkers in one model also rendered null results. The temporal evolution of NT-proBNP, TropT, and CRP before AR did not predict occurrence of acute AR both in the early and late course of the first year after HTx.

  16. Future in psychopathology research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckers, Stephan

    2014-03-01

    Psychopathology research has focused either on the analysis of the mental state in the here and now or on the synthesis of mental status abnormalities with biological markers and outcome data. These two schools of psychopathology, the analytic and the synthetic, make contrasting assumptions, take different approaches, and pursue divergent goals. Analytic psychopathology favors the individual person and unique biography, whereas synthetic psychopathology abstracts from the single case and generalizes to the population level. The dimension of time, especially the prediction of future outcomes, is viewed differently by these two schools. Here I outline how Carpenter's proposal of strong inference and theory testing in psychopathology research can be used to test the value of analytic and synthetic psychopathology. The emerging field of personalized psychiatry can clarify the relevance of psychopathology for contemporary research in psychiatry.

  17. Strong-coupling approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, R.B.

    1984-03-01

    Standard path-integral techniques such as instanton calculations give good answers for weak-coupling problems, but become unreliable for strong-coupling. Here we consider a method of replacing the original potential by a suitably chosen harmonic oscillator potential. Physically this is motivated by the fact that potential barriers below the level of the ground-state energy of a quantum-mechanical system have little effect. Numerically, results are good, both for quantum-mechanical problems and for massive phi 4 field theory in 1 + 1 dimensions. 9 references, 6 figures

  18. Strong interaction and QFD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebata, T.

    1981-01-01

    With an assumed weak multiplet structure for bosonic hadrons, which is consistent with the ΔI = 1/2 rule, it is shown that the strong interaction effective hamiltonian is compatible with the weak SU(2) x U(1) gauge transformation. Especially the rho-meson transforms as a triplet under SU(2)sub(w), and this is the origin of the rho-photon analogy. It is also shown that the existence of the non-vanishing Cabibbo angle is a necessary condition for the absence of the exotic hadrons. (orig.)

  19. Building strong brands – does it matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Aure, Kristin Gaaseide; Nervik, Kristine Dybvik

    2014-01-01

    Brand equity has proven, through several decades of research, to be a primary source of competitive advantage and future earnings (Yoo & Donthu, 2001). Building strong brands has therefore become a priority for many organizations, with the presumption that building strong brands yields these advantages (Yasin et al., 2007). A quantitative survey was conducted at Sunnmøre in Norway in order to answer the two developed research questions. - Does the brand equity dimensions; brand...

  20. Strong Coupling Holography

    CERN Document Server

    Dvali, Gia

    2009-01-01

    We show that whenever a 4-dimensional theory with N particle species emerges as a consistent low energy description of a 3-brane embedded in an asymptotically-flat (4+d)-dimensional space, the holographic scale of high-dimensional gravity sets the strong coupling scale of the 4D theory. This connection persists in the limit in which gravity can be consistently decoupled. We demonstrate this effect for orbifold planes, as well as for the solitonic branes and string theoretic D-branes. In all cases the emergence of a 4D strong coupling scale from bulk holography is a persistent phenomenon. The effect turns out to be insensitive even to such extreme deformations of the brane action that seemingly shield 4D theory from the bulk gravity effects. A well understood example of such deformation is given by large 4D Einstein term in the 3-brane action, which is known to suppress the strength of 5D gravity at short distances and change the 5D Newton's law into the four-dimensional one. Nevertheless, we observe that the ...

  1. Prediction equations for corrosion rates of a A-537 and A-516 steels in Double Shell Slurry, Future PUREX, and Hanford Facilities Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Divine, J.R.; Bowen, W.M.; Mackey, D.B.; Bates, D.J.; Pool, K.H.

    1985-06-01

    Even though the interest in the corrosion of radwaste tanks goes back to the mid-1940's when waste storage was begun, and a fair amount of corrosion work has been done since then, the changes in processes and waste types have outpaced the development of new data pertinent to the new double shell tanks. As a consequence, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) began a development of corrosion data on a broad base of waste compositions in 1980. The objective of the program was to provide operations personnel with corrosion rate data as a function of waste temperature and composition. The work performed in this program examined A-537 tank steel in Double Shell Slurry and Future PUREX Wastes, at temperatures between 40 and 180 0 C as well as in Hanford Facilities Waste at 25 and 50 0 C. In general, the corrosion rates were less than 1 mpy (0.001 in./y) and usually less than 0.5 mpy. Excessive corrosion rates (>1 mpy) were only found in dilute waste compositions or in concentrated caustic compositions at temperatures above 140 0 C. Stress corrosion cracking was only observed under similar conditions. The results are presented as polynomial prediction equations with examples of the output of existing computer codes. The codes are not provided in the text but are available from the authors. 12 refs., 5 figs., 19 tabs

  2. Use DNA to learn from the past: how modern and ancient DNA studies may help reveal the past and predict the future distribution of species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.; Alsos, I. G.; Sjögren, P.; Coissac, E.; Gielly, L.; Yoccoz, N.; Føreid, M. K.; Taberlet, P.

    2015-12-01

    Knowledge of how climate change affected species distribution in the past may help us predict the effect of ongoing environmental changes. We explore how the use of modern (AFLP fingerprinting techniques) and ancient DNA (metabarcoding P6 loop of chloroplast DNA) help to reveal past distribution of vascular plant species, dispersal processes, and effect of species traits. Based on studies of modern DNA combined with species distribution models, we show the dispersal routes and barriers to dispersal throughout the circumarctic/circumboreal region, likely dispersal vectors, the cost of dispersal in term of loss of genetic diversity, and how these relates to species traits, dispersal distance, and size of colonized region. We also estimate the expected future distribution and loss of genetic diversity and show how this relates to life form and adaptations to dispersal. To gain more knowledge on time lags in past range change events, we rely on palaeorecords. Current data on past distribution are limited by the taxonomic and time resolution of macrofossil and pollen records. We show how this may be improved by studying ancient DNA of lake sediments. DNA of lake sediments recorded about half of the flora surrounding the lake. Compared to macrofossil, the taxonomic resolution is similar but the detection rate is considerable improved. By taking into account main determinants of founder effect, dispersal vectors, and dispersal lags, we may improve our ability to forecast effects of climate change, whereas more studies on ancient DNA may provide us with knowledge on distribution time lags.

  3. Future leisure environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

    1974-01-01

    As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

  4. LIGO: The strong belief

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2016-01-01

    Twenty years of designing, building and testing a number of innovative technologies, with the strong belief that the endeavour would lead to a historic breakthrough. The Bulletin publishes an abstract of the Courier’s interview with Barry Barish, one of the founding fathers of LIGO.   The plots show the signals of gravitational waves detected by the twin LIGO observatories at Livingston, Louisiana, and Hanford, Washington. (Image: Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab) On 11 February, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo collaborations published a historic paper in which they showed a gravitational signal emitted by the merger of two black holes. These results come after 20 years of hard work by a large collaboration of scientists operating the two LIGO observatories in the US. Barry Barish, Linde Professor of Physics, Emeritus at the California Institute of Technology and former Director of the Global Design Effort for the Internat...

  5. Remnants of strong tidal interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcglynn, T.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper examines the properties of stellar systems that have recently undergone a strong tidal shock, i.e., a shock which removes a significant fraction of the particles in the system, and where the shocked system has a much smaller mass than the producer of the tidal field. N-body calculations of King models shocked in a variety of ways are performed, and the consequences of the shocks are investigated. The results confirm the prediction of Jaffe for shocked systems. Several models are also run where the tidal forces on the system are constant, simulating a circular orbit around a primary, and the development of tidal radii under these static conditions appears to be a mild process which does not dramatically affect material that is not stripped. The tidal radii are about twice as large as classical formulas would predict. Remnant density profiles are compared with a sample of elliptical galaxies, and the implications of the results for the development of stellar populations and galaxies are considered. 38 refs

  6. Future migratory behaviour predicted from premigratory levels of gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity in individual wild brown trout (Salmo trutta)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Aarestrup, Kim; Nørum, Ulrik

    2004-01-01

    The relationship between premigratory gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity, determined at two dates during spring, and future migratory behaviour was investigated using non-lethal gill biopsies and PIT-tagging in wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two tributaries. No significant relationship between...... future migrants or residents. The maximum percentage of correct predictions of future migratory behaviour in mainstream fish was observed at threshold probabilities between approximately 0.15 and 0.45 (corresponding to threshold gill Na+/K+-ATPase activities between 2.7 and 3.7 micromol ADP mg-1 protein...

  7. John Strong (1941 - 2006)

    CERN Multimedia

    Wickens, F

    Our friend and colleague John Strong was cruelly taken from us by a brain tumour on Monday 31st July, a few days before his 65th birthday John started his career working with a group from Westfield College, under the leadership of Ted Bellamy. He obtained his PhD and spent the early part of his career on experiments at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), but after the early 1970s his research was focussed on experiments in CERN. Over the years he made a number of notable contributions to experiments in CERN: The Omega spectrometer adopted a system John had originally developed for experiments at RAL using vidicon cameras to record the sparks in the spark chambers; He contributed to the success of NA1 and NA7, where he became heavily involved in the electronic trigger systems; He was responsible for the second level trigger system for the ALEPH detector and spent five years leading a team that designed and built the system, which ran for twelve years with only minor interventions. Following ALEPH he tur...

  8. Stirring Strongly Coupled Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Fadafan, Kazem Bitaghsir; Rajagopal, Krishna; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2009-01-01

    We determine the energy it takes to move a test quark along a circle of radius L with angular frequency w through the strongly coupled plasma of N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills (SYM) theory. We find that for most values of L and w the energy deposited by stirring the plasma in this way is governed either by the drag force acting on a test quark moving through the plasma in a straight line with speed v=Lw or by the energy radiated by a quark in circular motion in the absence of any plasma, whichever is larger. There is a continuous crossover from the drag-dominated regime to the radiation-dominated regime. In the crossover regime we find evidence for significant destructive interference between energy loss due to drag and that due to radiation as if in vacuum. The rotating quark thus serves as a model system in which the relative strength of, and interplay between, two different mechanisms of parton energy loss is accessible via a controlled classical gravity calculation. We close by speculating on the implicati...

  9. Strong-interaction nonuniversality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkas, R.R.; Foot, R.; He, X.; Joshi, G.C.

    1989-01-01

    The universal QCD color theory is extended to an SU(3) 1 direct product SU(3) 2 direct product SU(3) 3 gauge theory, where quarks of the ith generation transform as triplets under SU(3)/sub i/ and singlets under the other two factors. The usual color group is then identified with the diagonal subgroup, which remains exact after symmetry breaking. The gauge bosons associated with the 16 broken generators then form two massive octets under ordinary color. The interactions between quarks and these heavy gluonlike particles are explicitly nonuniversal and thus an exploration of their physical implications allows us to shed light on the fundamental issue of strong-interaction universality. Nonuniversality and weak flavor mixing are shown to generate heavy-gluon-induced flavor-changing neutral currents. The phenomenology of these processes is studied, as they provide the major experimental constraint on the extended theory. Three symmetry-breaking scenarios are presented. The first has color breaking occurring at the weak scale, while the second and third divorce the two scales. The third model has the interesting feature of radiatively induced off-diagonal Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements

  10. Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J; King, Robert A; Bessen, Debra E; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F

    2010-04-01

    One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta-hemolytic streptococcal infections (GABHS) in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared with healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Consecutive ratings of tic, OC, and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a 2-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. Copyright 2010 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Negative Affect-Associated USV Acoustic Characteristics Predict Future Excessive Alcohol Drinking and Alcohol Avoidance in Male P and NP Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reno, James M; Thakore, Neha; Cormack, Lawrence K; Schallert, Timothy; Bell, Richard L; Maddox, W Todd; Duvauchelle, Christine L

    2017-04-01

    Negative emotional status and adverse emotional events increase vulnerability to alcohol abuse. Ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) emitted by rats are a well-established model of emotional status that can reflect positive or negative affective responses in real time. Most USV studies assess counts, yet each USV is a multidimensional data point characterized by several acoustic characteristics that may provide insight into the neurocircuitry underlying emotional response. USVs emitted from selectively bred alcohol-naïve and alcohol-experienced alcohol-preferring and nonpreferring rats (P and NP rats) were recorded during 4-hour sessions on alternating days over 4 weeks. Linear mixed modeling (LMM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were applied to USV acoustic characteristics (e.g., frequency, duration, power, and bandwidth) of negative affect (22 to 28 kilohertz [kHz])- and positive (50 to 55 kHz) affect-related USVs. Hundred percent separation between alcohol-naïve P and NP rats was achieved through a linear combination (produced by LDA) of USV acoustic characteristics of 22- to 28-kHz USVs, whereas poor separation (36.5%) was observed for 50- to 55-kHz USVs. 22- to 28-kHz LDA separation was high (87%) between alcohol-experienced P and NP rats, but was poor for 50- to 55-kHz USVs (57.3%). USV mean frequency and duration were the highest weighted characteristics in both the naïve and experienced 22- to 28-kHz LDA representations suggesting that alcohol experience does not alter the representations. LMM analyses of 22- to 28-kHz USV acoustic characteristics matched the LDA results. Poor LDA separation was observed between alcohol-naïve and alcohol-experienced P rats for both 22- to 28-kHz and 50- to 55-kHz USVs. Advanced statistical analysis of negative affect-associated USV data predicts future behaviors of excessive alcohol drinking and alcohol avoidance in selectively bred rats. USV characteristics across rat lines reveal affect-related motivation to

  12. Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sizah Mwalusepo

    Full Text Available Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055 climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1 range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2 increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3 disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in

  13. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  14. Inverse modeling using PS-InSAR for improved calibration of hydraulic parameters and prediction of future subsidence for Las Vegas Valley, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Burbey

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Las Vegas Valley has had a long history of surface deformation due to groundwater pumping that began in the early 20th century. After nearly 80 years of pumping, PS-InSAR interferograms have revealed detailed and complex spatial patterns of subsidence in the Las Vegas Valley area that do not coincide with major pumping regions. High spatial and temporal resolution subsidence observations from InSAR and hydraulic head data were used to inversely calibrate transmissivities (T, elastic and inelastic skeletal storage coefficients (Ske and Skv of the developed-zone aquifer and conductance (CR of the basin-fill faults for the entire Las Vegas basin. The results indicate that the subsidence observations from PS-InSAR are extremely beneficial for accurately quantifying hydraulic parameters, and the model calibration results are far more accurate than when using only water-levels as observations, and just a few random subsidence observations. Future predictions of land subsidence to year 2030 were made on the basis of existing pumping patterns and rates. Simulation results suggests that subsidence will continue in northwest subsidence bowl area, which is expected to undergo an additional 11.3 cm of subsidence. Even mitigation measures that include artificial recharge and reduced pumping do not significantly reduce the compaction in the northwest subsidence bowl. This is due to the slow draining of thick confining units in the region. However, a small amount of uplift of 0.4 cm is expected in the North and Central bowl areas over the next 20 years.

  15. Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, John D.; Stewart, Jana S.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

  16. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    demonstrate that aggregate dividend growth rates are highly predictable by the dividend yield and that dividend predictability is clearly stronger than return predictability in medium-sized and smaller countries that account for the majority of countries in the world. We show that this is true both...... in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  17. Hopelessness and positive and negative future thinking in parasuicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Andrew K; Tata, Philip; Tyrer, Peter; Schmidt, Ulrike; Davidson, Kate; Thompson, Simon

    2005-11-01

    Hopelessness about the future is a key element in suicidal behaviour. The aim of the present study was to examine possible components of hopelessness, in particular, to contrast positive and negative future thinking and to examine separately number, expectancy, and value of anticipated positive and negative future experiences. A correlational design. Repeat parasuicide patients (N = 441) were administered the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the future thinking task, a measure of future positive and negative thinking that assesses number, perceived likelihood, and perceived value of anticipated future positive and negative events. Consistent with predictions, hopelessness correlated more strongly with lack of positive thoughts about the future than it did with presence of negative thoughts. Both positive and negative future thinking showed a relationship to hopelessness over and above their relationships to depression (positive future thinking) and anxiety (negative future thinking). Number and likelihood of positive events and likelihood and value of negative events showed both simple and partial relationships to hopelessness. Number of negative events related to hopelessness but only after the other future thinking variables had been controlled for and value of positive events no longer related to hopelessness after controlling for the other variables. Hopelessness about the future in suicidal individuals is a multi-faceted construct but lack of positive future thinking is more important than presence of negative future thinking.

  18. Novel Highly Branched Isoprenoid Biomarkers as Indicators of Sea-Ice Diatoms: Implications for Historical Sea-Ice Records and Future Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massé, G.; Belt, S. T.; Rowland, S. J.; Poulin, M.; Sicre, M.; Michel, C.

    2006-12-01

    Polar oceans are important contributors to the Earth's climate systems. In particular, sea-ice influences the exchanges of heat and moisture between polar oceans and atmosphere, and its high albedo means that it reflects much of incoming solar radiation. In addition, when melting, the outflow of low-salinity surface water impacts on the global deep oceanic circulation, which can influence the climate to a large extent. Therefore, increasing our knowledge about how changes in past sea-ice extent contributes to our understanding of the actual changes in climate is critical if we aim to succeed in predicting future changes. Direct global estimates of sea-ice cover derived from remote sensing observations are now routine but have only been possible since the 1970's. Previously, analysis of data derived from early ship records have been carried out, providing an observed sea ice record for the 20th century and earlier. Such records have been based on archive materials including lighthouse diaries, ships logs, travellers journals and newspaper reports. However, only the most recent direct estimations of sea-ice cover are believed to be reliable and therefore, longer time scales studies are only possible using proxy data sources. In the current project, we are investigating the potential to use chemical biomarkers of sea-ice associated diatoms to serve as a proxy of sea-ice cover in the Arctic. To date, our investigations have revealed that a restricted number of diatoms biosynthesise a class of secondary metabolite chemicals termed highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs). These chemicals are ubiquitous to marine sediments, but only one structural form of the HBIs exists in Arctic sea-ice. In turn, this chemical (a C25 HBI mono-unsaturated alkene) can almost certainly be associated with some Haslea spp. which are known to occur in Arctic sea-ice. Indeed, we have identified three such species in our work and now have them in culture. In order for the HBI biomarker to be useful

  19. Exploring the Physical Causes for Inter-Model Differences in predictions of future THC-related climate change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tailleux, R.; Gregory, J.

    2005-12-01

    Most current coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models simulate a decrease in the oceanic thermohaline circulation in response to anthropogenic global warming. As a result, the models usually simulate a reduction in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic ocean, somewhat mitigating the effects of global warming in the northern hemisphere, while exacerbating them in the southern hemisphere. Large uncertainties remain, however, because the predicted changes can vary greatly from one model to the other, with the possible responses ranging from near stability to an almost complete shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. To understand the physical causes for these inter-model differences, an intercomparison of a coordinated sets of experiments has been undertaken both as an international experiment supplementing the Coupled Mode