WorldWideScience

Sample records for strong rainfall gradient

  1. Fluvial signatures of modern and paleo orographic rainfall gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    The morphology of river profiles is intimately linked to both climate and tectonic forcing. While much interest recently has focused on how river profiles can be inverted to derive uplift histories, here we show how in regions of strong orographic rainfall gradients, rivers may primarily record spatial patterns of precipitation. As a case study, we examine the eastern margin of the Andean plateau in NW Argentina, where the outward (eastward) growth of a broken foreland has led to a eastward shift in the main orographic rainfall gradient over the last several million years. Rivers influenced by the modern rainfall gradient are characterized by normalized river steepness values in tributary valleys that closely track spatial variations in rainfall, with higher steepness values in drier areas and lower steepness values in wetter areas. The same river steepness pattern has been predicted in landscape evolution models that apply a spatial gradient in rainfall to a region of uniform erosivity and uplift rate (e.g., Han et al., 2015). Also, chi plots from river networks on individual ranges affected by the modern orographic rainfall reveal patterns consistent with assymmetric precipitation across the range: the largest channels on the windward slopes are characterized by capture, while the longest channels on the leeward slopes are dominated by beheadings. Because basins on the windward side both lengthen and widen, tributary channels in the lengthening basins are characterized by capture, while tributary channels from neighboring basins on the windward side are dominated by beheadings. These patterns from the rivers influenced by the modern orographic rainfall gradient provide a guide for identifying river morphometric signatures of paleo orographic rainfall gradients. Mountain ranges to the west of the modern orographic rainfall have been interpreted to mark the location of orographic rainfall in the past, but these ranges are now in spatially near-uniform semi-arid to

  2. Piecewise Disassembly of a Large-Herbivore Community across a Rainfall Gradient: The UHURU Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Todd M.; Charles, Grace K.; Helgen, Kristofer M.; Kinyua, Stephen N.; Maclean, Janet E.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Young, Hillary S.

    2013-01-01

    Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly influence plant communities, and these effects can propagate indirectly throughout food webs. Most existing large-scale manipulations of LMH presence/absence consist of a single exclusion treatment, and few are replicated across environmental gradients. Thus, important questions remain about the functional roles of different LMH, and how these roles depend on abiotic context. In September 2008, we constructed a series of 1-ha herbivore-exclusion plots across a 20-km rainfall gradient in central Kenya. Dubbed "UHURU" (Ungulate Herbivory Under Rainfall Uncertainty), this experiment aims to illuminate the ecological effects of three size classes of LMH, and how rainfall regimes shape the direction and magnitude of these effects. UHURU consists of four treatments: total-exclusion (all ungulate herbivores), mesoherbivore-exclusion (LMH >120-cm tall), megaherbivore-exclusion (elephants and giraffes), and unfenced open plots. Each treatment is replicated three times at three locations (“sites”) along the rainfall gradient: low (440 mm/year), intermediate (580 mm/year), and high (640 mm/year). There was limited variation across sites in soil attributes and LMH activity levels. Understory-plant cover was greater in plots without mesoherbivores, but did not respond strongly to the exclusion of megaherbivores, or to the additional exclusion of dik-dik and warthog. Eleven of the thirteen understory plant species that responded significantly to exclusion treatment were more common in exclusion plots than open ones. Significant interactions between site and treatment on plant communities, although uncommon, suggested that differences between treatments may be greater at sites with lower rainfall. Browsers reduced densities of several common overstory species, along with growth rates of the three dominant Acacia species. Small-mammal densities were 2–3 times greater in total-exclusion than in open plots at all sites. Although we

  3. Tropical Soil Carbon Stocks do not Reflect Aboveground Forest Biomass Across Geological and Rainfall Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, D. F.; Markesteijn, L.; Turner, B. L.

    2016-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (C) dynamics present a large source of uncertainty in global C cycle models, and inhibit our ability to predict effects of climate change. Tropical wet and seasonal forests exert a disproportionate influence on the global C cycle relative to their land area because they are the most C-rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25-40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While significant advances have been made to map aboveground C stocks in tropical forests, determining soil C stocks using remote sensing technology is still not possible for closed-canopy forests. It is unclear to what extent aboveground C stocks can be used to predict soil C stocks across tropical forests. Here we present 1-m-deep soil organic C stocks for 42 tropical forest sites across rainfall and geological gradients in Panama. We show that soil C stocks do not correspond to aboveground plant biomass or to litterfall productivity in these humid tropical forests. Rather, soil C stocks were strongly and positively predicted by fine root biomass, soil clay content, and rainfall (R2 = 0.47, p chemical characteristics form an important basis for improving model estimates of soil C stocks and predictions of climate change effects on tropical C storage.

  4. NMR surprizes with thin slices and strong gradients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaedke, Achim; Kresse, Benjamin [Institute of Condensed Matter Physics, Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (Germany); Nestle, Nikolaus

    2008-07-01

    In the context of our work on diffusion-relaxation-coupling in thin excited slices, we perform NMR experiments in static magnetic field gradients up to 200 T/m. For slice thicknesses in the range of 10{mu}m, the frequency bandwidth of the excited slices becomes sufficiently narrow that free induction decays (FIDs) become observable despite the presence of the strong static gradient. The observed FIDs were also simulated using standard methods from MRI physics. Possible effects of diffusion during the FID duration are still minor at this slice thickness in water but might become dominant for smaller slices or more diffusive media. Furthermore, the detailed excitation structure of the RF pulses was studied in profiling experiments over the edge of a plane liquid cell. Side lobe effects to the slices will be discussed along with approaches to control them. The spatial resolution achieved in the profiling experiments furthermore allows the identification of thermal expansion phenomena in the NMR magnet. Measures to reduce the temperature drift problems are presented.

  5. Ion temperature gradient driven turbulence with strong trapped ion resonance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosuga, Y., E-mail: kosuga@riam.kyushu-u.ac.jp [Institute for Advanced Study, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Itoh, S.-I. [Research Center for Plasma Turbulence, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Diamond, P. H. [CASS and CMTFO, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093 (United States); WCI Center for Fusion Theory, National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Itoh, K. [National Institute for Fusion Science, Gifu (Japan); Research Center for Plasma Turbulence, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan); Lesur, M. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan)

    2014-10-15

    A theory to describe basic characterization of ion temperature gradient driven turbulence with strong trapped ion resonance is presented. The role of trapped ion granulations, clusters of trapped ions correlated by precession resonance, is the focus. Microscopically, the presence of trapped ion granulations leads to a sharp (logarithmic) divergence of two point phase space density correlation at small scales. Macroscopically, trapped ion granulations excite potential fluctuations that do not satisfy dispersion relation and so broaden frequency spectrum. The line width from emission due only to trapped ion granulations is calculated. The result shows that the line width depends on ion free energy and electron dissipation, which implies that non-adiabatic electrons are essential to recover non-trivial dynamics of trapped ion granulations. Relevant testable predictions are summarized.

  6. Demographic patterns of a widespread long-lived tree are associated with rainfall and disturbances along rainfall gradients in SE Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Janet S; Lunt, Ian D; Bradstock, Ross A; Hua, Quan; McDonald, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Predicting species distributions with changing climate has often relied on climatic variables, but increasingly there is recognition that disturbance regimes should also be included in distribution models. We examined how changes in rainfall and disturbances along climatic gradients determined demographic patterns in a widespread and long-lived tree species, Callitris glaucophylla in SE Australia. We examined recruitment since 1950 in relation to annual (200–600 mm) and seasonal (summer, uniform, winter) rainfall gradients, edaphic factors (topography), and disturbance regimes (vertebrate grazing [tenure and species], fire). A switch from recruitment success to failure occurred at 405 mm mean annual rainfall, coincident with a change in grazing regime. Recruitment was lowest on farms with rabbits below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 0–0.89 cohorts) and highest on less-disturbed tenures with no rabbits above 405 mm rainfall (mean = 3.25 cohorts). Moderate levels of recruitment occurred where farms had no rabbits or less disturbed tenures had rabbits above and below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 1.71–1.77 cohorts). These results show that low annual rainfall and high levels of introduced grazing has led to aging, contracting populations, while higher annual rainfall with low levels of grazing has led to younger, expanding populations. This study demonstrates how demographic patterns vary with rainfall and spatial variations in disturbances, which are linked in complex ways to climatic gradients. Predicting changes in tree distribution with climate change requires knowledge of how rainfall and key disturbances (tenure, vertebrate grazing) will shift along climatic gradients. PMID:23919160

  7. Consideration to the early warning rainfall criteria of landslides after strong earthquake in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, T.

    2012-04-01

    1. Objective The research on the warning rainfall criteria of landslides after strong earthquakes is conducted associated with the great earthquake in Eastern Japan (M=9.0). After this kind of strong earthquake, soil strength of the slopes in the region that were exposed to the strong seismic forces are generally reduced by seismic shaking (vibration) or disturbance by certain slope deformation. In this situation, the revised rainfall criteria for landslides are required. On this point of view, we are intrigued to elucidate the response of landslide to rainfall under this weaken soil condition. Hence, the impact of rainfall events on the specific landslide slopes that experienced the strong seismic shaking is analyzed using numerical simulation method i.e. finite element method (FEM) in order to evaluate the critical rainfall for landslide occurrence. 2. Method and target areas Field investigation, field survey and geotechnical test with the samples from the landslide slopes are conducted to obtain the basic data for FEM analysis such as topographical, geological, geotechnical features including hydraulic conductivity "k" and soil shear strength at the slopes that experienced strong earthquake. Then, FEM analysis which consists of seepage analysis and slope stability analysis combined with the rain data at nearest meteorological observatory are conducted under the earthquake impact i.e. the slope condition with cracks which are located near the top of the slope and have high "k" or reduced soil strength. Comparing the FEM results with ones without earthquake impact, the influence of the earthquake shaking to the landslide slopes is estimated. 3. Result and consideration In the result of FEM analysis, the cracks induced by the earthquake are effective to increase the seepage and render the slopes instable. Also, reduced soil strength such as 4% decrease in internal friction angle caused instability of the slope. The slope deterioration mentioned above due to the

  8. Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

    2016-01-01

    The “varying constraints hypothesis” of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels—the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)—using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied—early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia. PMID:27441689

  9. Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

    2016-01-01

    The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

  10. Variability of water content useful in surface along a rainfall gradient Mediterranean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.; Martinez-Murillo, J. F.; Gabarron-Galeote, M. A.

    2009-01-01

    A climatic gradient was defined in South of spain with a great decreased of rainfall from West to East (>1,000 mm), which produces changes in vegetation and hydric resources. this study was carried out in five hill slopes under different climatic conditions and their aims were to analyze: the variability of available water along the gradient since 2002 to 2006, the key factors of it and the influence on the vegetal cover. Results showed that clay content had a great influence in the surface available water for plants, which did not decrease in the deerfield sites, where the amount of days with hydric deficient was lower. Relationships between vegetation and soil water were stronger in the more humid field sites, where existed a feedback between both properties. (Author) 4 refs.

  11. Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Stagg, Camille L.

    2014-01-01

    Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland

  12. Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenbin Mu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

  13. Biological soil crust succession impact on soil moisture and temperature in the sub-surface along a rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaady, E.; Yizhaq, H.; Ashkenazy, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Biological soil crusts produce mucilage sheets of polysaccharides that cover the soil surface. This hydrophobic coating can seal the soil micro-pores and thus cause reduction of water permeability and may influence soil temperature. This study evaluates the impact of crust composition on sub-surface water and temperature over time. We hypothesized that the successional stages of biological soil crusts, affect soil moisture and temperature differently along a rainfall gradient throughout the year. Four experimental sites were established along a rainfall gradient in the western Negev Desert. At each site three treatments; crust removal, pure sand (moving dune) and natural crusted were monitored. Crust successional stage was measured by biophysiological and physical measurements, soil water permeability by field mini-Infiltrometer, soil moisture by neutron scattering probe and temperature by sensors, at different depths. Our main interim conclusions from the ongoing study along the rainfall gradient are: 1. the biogenic crust controls water infiltration into the soil in sand dunes, 2. infiltration was dependent on the composition of the biogenic crust. It was low for higher successional stage crusts composed of lichens and mosses and high with cyanobacterial crust. Thus, infiltration rate controlled by the crust is inverse to the rainfall gradient. Continuous disturbances to the crust increase infiltration rates, 3. despite the different rainfall amounts at the sites, soil moisture content below 50 cm is almost the same. We therefore predict that climate change in areas that are becoming dryer (desertification) will have a positive effect on soil water content and vice versa.

  14. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  15. Steep spatial gradients of volcanic and marine sulfur in Hawaiian rainfall and ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bern, Carleton R., E-mail: cbern@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225 (United States); Department of Geography University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060 (United States); Chadwick, Oliver A. [Department of Geography University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060 (United States); Kendall, Carol [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Pribil, Michael J. [U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225 (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Sulfur, a nutrient required by terrestrial ecosystems, is likely to be regulated by atmospheric processes in well-drained, upland settings because of its low concentration in most bedrock and generally poor retention by inorganic reactions within soils. Environmental controls on sulfur sources in unpolluted ecosystems have seldom been investigated in detail, even though the possibility of sulfur limiting primary production is much greater where atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic sulfur is low. Here we measure sulfur isotopic compositions of soils, vegetation and bulk atmospheric deposition from the Hawaiian Islands for the purpose of tracing sources of ecosystem sulfur. Hawaiian lava has a mantle-derived sulfur isotopic composition (δ{sup 34}S VCDT) of − 0.8‰. Bulk deposition on the island of Maui had a δ{sup 34}S VCDT that varied temporally, spanned a range from + 8.2 to + 19.7‰, and reflected isotopic mixing from three sources: sea-salt (+ 21.1‰), marine biogenic emissions (+ 15.6‰), and volcanic emissions from active vents on Kilauea Volcano (+ 0.8‰). A straightforward, weathering-driven transition in ecosystem sulfur sources could be interpreted in the shift from relatively low (0.0 to + 2.7‰) to relatively high (+ 17.8 to + 19.3‰) soil δ{sup 34}S values along a 0.3 to 4100 ka soil age-gradient, and similar patterns in associated vegetation. However, sub-kilometer scale spatial variation in soil sulfur isotopic composition was found along soil transects assumed by age and mass balance to be dominated by atmospheric sulfur inputs. Soil sulfur isotopic compositions ranged from + 8.1 to + 20.3‰ and generally decreased with increasing elevation (0–2000 m), distance from the coast (0–12 km), and annual rainfall (180–5000 mm). Such trends reflect the spatial variation in marine versus volcanic inputs from atmospheric deposition. Broadly, these results illustrate how the sources and magnitude of atmospheric deposition can exert controls

  16. Aboveground net primary productivity and rainfall use efficiency of grassland on three soils after two years of exposure to a subambient to superambient CO2 gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, P. A.; Polley, H. W.; Jin, V. L.

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CA) have increased by about 100 μL L-1 over the last 250 years to ~ 380 μL L-1, the highest values in the last half-million years, and CA is expected to continue to increase to greater than 500 μL L-1 by 2100. CO2 enrichment has been shown to affect many ecosystem processes, but experiments typically examine only two or a few levels of CA, and are typically constrained to one soil type. However, soil hydrologic properties differ across the landscape. Therefore, variation in the impacts of increasing CA on ecosystem function on different soil types must be understood to model and forecast ecosystem function under future CA and climate scenarios. Here we evaluate the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grassland plots receiving equal rainfall inputs (from irrigation) and exposed to a continuous gradient (250 to 500 μL L-1) of CA in the Lysimeter CO2 Gradient Experiment in central Texas, USA. Sixty intact soil monoliths (1 m2 x 1.5 m deep) taken from three soil types (Austin silty clay, Bastrop sandy loam, Houston clay) and planted to seven native tallgrass prairie grasses and forbs were exposed to the CA gradient beginning in 2006. Aboveground net primary productivity was assessed by end of season (November) harvest of each species in each monolith. Total ANPP of all species was 35 to 50% greater on Bastrop and Houston soils compared to Austin soils in both years (p Solidago canadensis strongly increased with increasing CA, with S. nutans responding more strongly on Bastrop and Houston soils (p = 0.053), indicating that increased greater rainfall use efficiency at high CA on these productive soils was associated with increased dominance by these species. In contrast, the grass Bouteloua curtipendula decreased in biomass with increasing CA, especially on Austin and Bastrop soils. The least productive species were the grass Tridens albescens, the legume Desmanthus illinoensis, and the forb Salvia azurea, and these showed

  17. Variability of water content useful in surface along a rainfall gradient Mediterranean; Variabilidad de la disposibilidad hidrica superficial para la vegetacion a lo largo de un gradiente pluviometrico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.; Martinez-Murillo, J. F.; Gabarron-Galeote, M. A.

    2009-07-01

    A climatic gradient was defined in South of spain with a great decreased of rainfall from West to East (>1,000 mm), which produces changes in vegetation and hydric resources. this study was carried out in five hill slopes under different climatic conditions and their aims were to analyze: the variability of available water along the gradient since 2002 to 2006, the key factors of it and the influence on the vegetal cover. Results showed that clay content had a great influence in the surface available water for plants, which did not decrease in the deerfield sites, where the amount of days with hydric deficient was lower. Relationships between vegetation and soil water were stronger in the more humid field sites, where existed a feedback between both properties. (Author) 4 refs.

  18. Effects of rainfall partitioning by Mediterranean vegetation on soil water content dynamics. Results from field studies along a climatic gradient in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorens, Pilar; Latron, Jérôme; Muzylo, Aleksandra; Schnabel, Susanne; Domingo, Francisco; Cantón, Yolanda; Gallart, Francesc

    2010-05-01

    The role played by rainfall partitioning by vegetation is of paramount importance for the water balance both at local and catchment scales. Rainfall partitioning fluxes (throughfall and stemflow) have a large degree of temporal and spatial variability and may consequently lead to significant changes in the volume and composition of water that reach the understory vegetation and the soil. Throughfall affects the surface soils horizons and stemflow, channelled by branches and stems, can reach deeper soil layers and remain available for the roots. This work investigates the effect of rainfall partitioning on soil water content in three Mediterranean study areas covering a strong climatic gradient and different vegetation species. From Northern to Southern Spain the study areas are: The Vallcebre research catchments (42° 12'N, 1° 49'E) with forest patches of Pinus sylvestris and of Quercus pubescens, The Parapuños research catchment (39° 35'N, 6° 5'W ), a wooded rangeland with Quercus rotundifolia and annual grasses in open areas, and the Tabernas experimental area (37° 0'N, 2° 26'W) with disperse shrubs and a mixture of annual plants and biological soil crusts in open areas. Mean annual rainfall ranges between 862 and 235 mm (in Vallcebre and Tabernas respectively). For the studied tree species throughfall was the dominant flux and have a similar rate, being stemflow only a small part of the bulk rainfall. For the studied shrubs, measured throughfall as well as stemflow were highly variable between species. Superficial soil water content was on average lower under forest (Vallcebre) or individual trees (Parapuños) that in the open areas. Contrarily, in Tabernas soil was wetter under shrubs than in open areas, although with higher variability. Driest soils below continous forest covers, as in Vallcebre, or even in sparse covered areas as in the Parapuños catchment, may be explained by the dominant role of rainfall interception and transpiration. In Tabernas

  19. Savanna ant species richness is maintained along a bioclimatic gradient of increasing latitude and decreasing rainfall in northern Australia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Alan N.; Del Toro, Israel; Parr, Catherine L.

    2015-01-01

    boundaries, with a primary disjunction between the arid and monsoonal zones in the south, and a secondary disjunction between the semi-arid and mesic zones in the north. Main conclusions: Patterns of ant diversity in Australian savannas do not conform to global patterns of biodiversity declines...... with increasing latitude and decreasing rainfall. We believe this is due to a lack of significant temperature change across the latitudinal gradient, and, in particular, to the fauna's evolutionary history in association with aridification, which makes it unusually resilient to increasing aridity. The diversity...... of other important faunal groups such as termites and lizards is also exceptionally high in arid Australia and is likewise not closely linked to rainfall in Australian savannas. We predict that these taxa are far more sensitive to increasing aridity in savannas elsewhere in the world, and especially...

  20. Topographic gradient based site characterization in India complemented by strong ground-motion spectral attributes

    KAUST Repository

    Nath, Sankar Kumar

    2013-12-01

    We appraise topographic-gradient approach for site classification that employs correlations between 30. m column averaged shear-wave velocity and topographic gradients. Assessments based on site classifications reported from cities across India indicate that the approach is reasonably viable at regional level. Additionally, we experiment three techniques for site classification based on strong ground-motion recordings, namely Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR), Response Spectra Shape (RSS), and Horizontal-to-Vertical Response Spectral Ratio (HVRSR) at the strong motion stations located across the Himalayas and northeast India. Statistical tests on the results indicate that these three techniques broadly differentiate soil and rock sites while RSS and HVRSR yield better signatures. The results also support the implemented site classification in the light of strong ground-motion spectral attributes observed in different parts of the globe. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Understanding nutrient dynamics in an African savanna : Local biotic interactions outweigh a major regional rainfall gradient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, Michiel P.; Hulshof, Anneleen; Fokkema, Wimke; Berg, Matty P.; Olff, Han

    Nutrient availability in terrestrial ecosystems has been found to vary along regional climatic and soil gradients and drive variation in plant community composition and vegetation structure. However, more local biotic feedbacks also affect nutrient availability, but their importance in determining

  2. Understanding nutrient dynamics in an African savanna: local biotic interactions outweigh a major regional rainfall gradient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, M.P.; Hulshof, A.; Fokkema, W.; Berg, M.P.; Olff, H.

    2016-01-01

    Nutrient availability in terrestrial ecosystems has been found to vary along regional climatic and soil gradients and drive variation in plant community composition and vegetation structure. However, more local biotic feedbacks also affect nutrient availability, but their importance in determining

  3. Effects of slope gradient on hydro-erosional processes on an aeolian sand-covered loess slope under simulated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, F. B.; Yang, M. Y.; Li, B. B.; Li, Z. B.; Shi, W. Y.

    2017-10-01

    The aeolian sand-covered loess slope of the Wind-Water Erosion Crisscross Region of the Loess Plateau in China may play a key role in contributing excessive sediment to the Yellow River. Understanding its hydro-erosional processes is crucial to assessing, controlling and predicting soil and water losses in this region and maintaining the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River. Simulated rainfall (intensity 90 mm h-1) was used to investigate the runoff and soil loss from loess slopes with different slope gradients (18%, 27%, 36%, 47%, and 58%) and overlying sand layer thicknesses (0, 5 and 10 cm). As compared with uncovered loess slopes, an overlying sand layer delayed runoff production, reduced cumulative runoff and increased cumulative soil loss, as well as enhancing variations among slope gradients. Cumulative runoff and soil loss from the sand-covered loess slopes increased with increasing slope gradients and then slightly decreased, with a peak at about 47% gradient; they both were greater from the 10-cm sand-covered loess slope than from the 5-cm except for with 18% slope gradient. In general, differences in cumulative runoff between sand layer thicknesses became smaller, while those in cumulative soil loss became larger, with increasing slope gradient. Runoff and soil loss rates on the sand-covered loess slopes exhibited unimodal distributions during the rainstorms. Maximum values tended to occur at the same rain duration, and increased considerably with increasing slope gradient and sand layer thickness on slopes that were less than 47%. Liquefaction process might occur on the lower loess slopes covered with thinner sand layers but failures similar to shallow landslides might occur when the sand layer was thicker on steeper slopes. The presence of an overlying sand layer changed the relationship between runoff and soil loss rates during intense rainstorms and this change varied with different slope gradients. Our results demonstrated that the effects

  4. Strong source heat transfer simulations based on a GalerKin/Gradient - least - squares method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franca, L.P.; Carmo, E.G.D. do.

    1989-05-01

    Heat conduction problems with temperature-dependent strong sources are modeled by an equation with a laplacian term, a linear term and a given source distribution term. When the linear-temperature-dependent source term is much larger than the laplacian term, we have a singular perturbation problem. In this case, boundary layers are formed to satisfy the Dirichlet boundary conditions. Although this is an elliptic equation, the standard Galerkin method solution is contaminated by spurious oscillations in the neighborhood of the boundary layers. Herein we employ a Galerkin/Gradient-least-squares method which eliminates all pathological phenomena of the Galerkin method. The method is constructed by adding to the Galerkin method a mesh-dependent term obtained by the least-squares form of the gradient of the Euler-Lagrange equation. Error estimates, numerical simulations in one-and multi-dimensions are given that attest the good stability and accuracy properties of the method [pt

  5. Below and above-ground carbon distribution along a rainfall gradient. A case of the Zambezi teak forests, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngoma, Justine; Moors, Eddy; Kruijt, Bart; Speer, James H.; Vinya, Royd; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Leemans, Rik

    2018-02-01

    Understanding carbon (C) stocks or biomass in forests is important to examine how forests mitigate climate change. To estimate biomass in stems, branches and roots takes intensive fieldwork to uproot, cut and weigh the mass of each component. Different models or equations are also required. Our research focussed on the dry tropical Zambezi teak forests and we studied their structure at three sites following a rainfall gradient in Zambia. We sampled 3558 trees at 42 plots covering a combined area of 15ha. Using data from destructive tree samples, we developed mixed-species biomass models to estimate above ground biomass for small (southern Africa, will likely reduce the C storage potential of the Zambezi teak forests, thereby adversely affecting their mitigating role in climate change.

  6. Effect of water stress in soil-water-vegetation relationships, along a rainfall gradient in southern Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.; Ferre Bueno, E.; Martinez-Murillo, J. F.; Gabarron-Galeote, M. A.

    2009-01-01

    The Andalusian Mediterranean Watershed, in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, shows a climatic gradient from the Straits of Gibraltar (1,600 mm year - 1) to the Cabo de Gata (150 mm year 1 ). Climate conditions differences are translating into variations in the elements of the eco-geomorphologic system at hillslope scale. In this study has been analysed the immediate consequences of a period of two years drought (2004-06) on several elements of the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system at three hillslopes (sub-humid, dry Mediterranean and semi-arid). the soil water content, the pattern of vegetation and some soil properties (organic matter content, aggregate stability and permeability) were analysed before (Nov-2003) and during (Nov-2005) the drought period. Final results have shown: i) reduction in soil water content which reached in the wet seasons values below wilting point, affecting negatively to the water available for vegetation and especially in the wettest sites; ii) reduction in vegetation cover and in the number of plants, especially at semi-arid field site; iii) changes in the organic matter content which aggravates the loss of stability of soil aggregates, a process seen more clearly under more arid conditions; and iv) reduction of soil permeability in all situations in the climate gradient studied, which supposes a priori an increase in erosive processes due to surface runoff. These results indicate increased vulnerability of the eco-geomorphologic system because of the rainfall drought situation. (Author) 14 refs.

  7. On the Worst-Case Complexity of the Gradient Method with Exact Line Search for Smooth Strongly Convex Functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Klerk, Etienne; Glineur, Francois; Taylor, Adrien

    2016-01-01

    We consider the gradient (or steepest) descent method with exact line search applied to a strongly convex function with Lipschitz continuous gradient. We establish the exact worst-case rate of convergence of this scheme, and show that this worst-case behavior is exhibited by a certain convex

  8. On the worst-case complexity of the gradient method with exact line search for smooth strongly convex functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Klerk, Etienne; Glineur, Francois; Taylor, Adrien

    2017-01-01

    We consider the gradient (or steepest) descent method with exact line search applied to a strongly convex function with Lipschitz continuous gradient. We establish the exact worst-case rate of convergence of this scheme, and show that this worst-case behavior is exhibited by a certain convex

  9. Forest growth along a rainfall gradient in Hawaii: Acacia koa stand structure, productivity, foliar nutrients, and water- and nutrient-use efficiencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin A. Harrington; James H. Fownes; Frederick C. Meinzer; Paul G. Scowcroft

    1995-01-01

    We tested whether variation in growth of native koa (Acacia koa) forest along a rainfall gradient was attributable to differences in leaf area index (LAI) or to differences in physiological performance per unit of leaf area. Koa stands were studied on western Kauai prior to Hurricane Iniki, and ranged from 500 to 1130 m elevation and from 850 to...

  10. A new nonlinear conjugate gradient coefficient under strong Wolfe-Powell line search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Nur Syarafina; Mamat, Mustafa; Rivaie, Mohd

    2017-08-01

    A nonlinear conjugate gradient method (CG) plays an important role in solving a large-scale unconstrained optimization problem. This method is widely used due to its simplicity. The method is known to possess sufficient descend condition and global convergence properties. In this paper, a new nonlinear of CG coefficient βk is presented by employing the Strong Wolfe-Powell inexact line search. The new βk performance is tested based on number of iterations and central processing unit (CPU) time by using MATLAB software with Intel Core i7-3470 CPU processor. Numerical experimental results show that the new βk converge rapidly compared to other classical CG method.

  11. Polarization-gradient laser cooling as a way to create strongly localized structures for atom lithography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prudnikov, O. N.; Taichenachev, A. V.; Tumaikin, A. M.; Yudin, V. I.

    2007-01-01

    Generally, conditions for deep sub-Doppler laser cooling do not match conditions for strong atomic localization, that takes place in a deeper optical potential and leads to higher temperature. Moreover, for a given detuning in a deep optical potential the secular approximation, which is frequently used for a quantum description of laser cooling, fails. Here we investigate the atomic localization in optical potential, using a full quantum approach for atomic density matrix beyond the secular approximation. It is shown that laser cooling in a deep optical potential, created by a light field with polarization gradients, can be used as an alternative method for the formation of high contrast spatially localized structures of atoms for the purposes of atom lithography and atomic nanofabrication. Finally, we analyze possible limits for the width and contrast of localized atomic structures that can be reached in this type of light mask

  12. On the worst-case complexity of the gradient method with exact line search for smooth strongly convex functions

    OpenAIRE

    de Klerk, Etienne; Glineur, François; Taylor, Adrien B.

    2016-01-01

    We consider the gradient (or steepest) descent method with exact line search applied to a strongly convex function with Lipschitz continuous gradient. We establish the exact worst-case rate of convergence of this scheme, and show that this worst-case behavior is exhibited by a certain convex quadratic function. We also give the tight worst-case complexity bound for a noisy variant of gradient descent method, where exact line-search is performed in a search direction that differs from negative...

  13. Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Verbist, Koen; Ribbe, Lars

    2017-03-01

    Accurate representation of the real spatio-temporal variability of catchment rainfall inputs is currently severely limited. Moreover, spatially interpolated catchment precipitation is subject to large uncertainties, particularly in developing countries and regions which are difficult to access. Recently, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) provide an unprecedented opportunity for a wide range of hydrological applications, from water resources modelling to monitoring of extreme events such as droughts and floods.This study attempts to exhaustively evaluate - for the first time - the suitability of seven state-of-the-art SRE products (TMPA 3B42v7, CHIRPSv2, CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIAN-CCS-Adj, MSWEPv1.1, and PGFv3) over the complex topography and diverse climatic gradients of Chile. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual) are used in a point-to-pixel comparison between precipitation time series measured at 366 stations (from sea level to 4600 m a.s.l. in the Andean Plateau) and the corresponding grid cell of each SRE (rescaled to a 0.25° grid if necessary). The modified Kling-Gupta efficiency was used to identify possible sources of systematic errors in each SRE. In addition, five categorical indices (PC, POD, FAR, ETS, fBIAS) were used to assess the ability of each SRE to correctly identify different precipitation intensities.Results revealed that most SRE products performed better for the humid South (36.4-43.7° S) and Central Chile (32.18-36.4° S), in particular at low- and mid-elevation zones (0-1000 m a.s.l.) compared to the arid northern regions and the Far South. Seasonally, all products performed best during the wet seasons (autumn and winter; MAM-JJA) compared to summer (DJF) and spring (SON). In addition, all SREs were able to correctly identify the occurrence of no-rain events, but they presented a low skill in classifying precipitation intensities during rainy days. Overall, PGFv3 exhibited the best performance everywhere

  14. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2016-02-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree-grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximize long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model.We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon-water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at five tower sites along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area, and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant

  15. Monitoring the Change in Urban Vegetation in 13 Chilean Cities Located in a Rainfall Gradient. What is the Contribution of the Widespread Creation of New Urban Parks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Barrera, Francisco; Henríquez, Cristian

    2017-10-01

    The well-being of people living in cities is strongly dependent on the existence of urban vegetation because of the ecosystem services or benefits it provides. This is why governments develop plans to create green spaces, plant trees, promote the maintenance of vegetation in private spaces and also monitor their status over time. In Latin America, and particularly in Chile, the increase of urban vegetation has been stimulated through different initiatives and regulations. However, development of monitoring programs at the national level is scarce, so it is yet unknown if these initiatives and regulations have had positive effects. In this article, we monitor the change in urban vegetation in 13 Chilean cities located in a latitudinal gradient of practically zero to almost 1800 mm of annual rainfall. We calculated the trends in NDVI (2000-2016) as an indicator of change in urban greenery using data from the MODIS Subsets platform. Likewise, to assess whether the initiatives have had an effect we quantified the number of urban parks existing at the beginning of the period and how many were created during the study period. For this, we analysed official databases and high spatial resolution satellite images. Armed with said data, we assessed whether these new parks had impacted the tendency toward change in urban greenery. The results indicate that, in general, Chilean cities vary greatly inter-annually in urban greenery and have lost urban vegetation in the last 16 years, with significant losses in four of those cities. Two cities located in desert ecosystems represent an exception and showed positive trends in their urban vegetation. The rainfall in cities has an impact on the amount of vegetation, but not on their tendency to change, i.e. there are cities with loss of vegetation at all levels of precipitation. The creation of parks has not been able to reverse negative trends, which indicates the prevalence of other drivers of change that are not sufficiently

  16. HOW STRONG IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CAATINGA PRODUCTIVITY? A CASE STUDY UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimon, Cleber; Anderson, Liana

    2017-05-22

    Despite the knowledge of the influence of rainfall on vegetation dynamics in semiarid tropical Brazil, few studies address and explore quantitatively the various aspects of this relationship. Moreover, Northeast Brazil is expected to have its rainfall reduced by as much as 60% until the end of the 21st Century, under scenario AII of the IPCC Report 2010. We sampled and analyzed satellite-derived monthly rainfall and a vegetation index data for 40 sites with natural vegetation cover in Paraíba State, Brazil from 2001 to 2012. In addition, the anomalies for both variables were calculated. Rainfall variation explained as much as 50% of plant productivity, using the vegetation index as a proxy, and rainfall anomaly explained 80% of the vegetation productivity anomaly. In an extreme dry year (2012), with 65% less rainfall than average for the period 2001-2012, the vegetation index decreased by 25%. If such decrease persists in a long term trend in rainfall reduction, this could lead to a disruption in this ecosystem functioning and the dominant vegetation could become even more xeric or desert-like, bringing serious environmental, social and economical impacts.

  17. Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi

    2018-02-01

    Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

  18. A spectral KRMI conjugate gradient method under the strong-Wolfe line search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadijah, Wan; Rivaie, Mohd.; Mamat, Mustafa; Jusoh, Ibrahim

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a modification of spectral conjugate gradient (CG) method is proposed which combines the advantages of the spectral CG method and the RMIL method namely as spectral Khadijah-Rivaie-Mustafa-Ibrahim (SKRMI) to solve unconstrained optimization problems. Based on inexact line searches, the objective function generates a sufficient descent direction and the global convergence property for the proposed method has been proved. Moreover, the method reduces to the standard RMIL method if exact line search is applied. Numerical results are also presented to examine the efficiency of the proposed method.

  19. Effects of Drought, Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Gaviria

    Full Text Available Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis, high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively. To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of

  20. Effects of Drought, Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaviria, Julian; Engelbrecht, Bettina M J

    2015-01-01

    Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests

  1. The phototransduction machinery in the rod outer segment has a strong efficacy gradient

    KAUST Repository

    Mazzolini, Monica

    2015-05-04

    Rod photoreceptors consist of an outer segment (OS) and an inner segment. Inside the OS a biochemical machinery transforms the rhodopsin photoisomerization into electrical signal. This machinery has been treated as and is thought to be homogenous with marginal inhomogeneities. To verify this assumption, we developed a methodology based on special tapered optical fibers (TOFs) to deliver highly localized light stimulations. By using these TOFs, specific regions of the rod OS could be stimulated with spots of light highly confined in space. As the TOF is moved from the OS base toward its tip, the amplitude of saturating and single photon responses decreases, demonstrating that the efficacy of the transduction machinery is not uniform and is 5-10 times higher at the base than at the tip. This gradient of efficacy of the transduction machinery is attributed to a progressive depletion of the phosphodiesterase along the rod OS. Moreover we demonstrate that, using restricted spots of light, the duration of the photoresponse along the OS does not increase linearly with the light intensity as with diffuse light. © 2015, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

  2. Fine root productivity varies along nitrogen and phosphorus gradients in high-rainfall mangrove forests of Micronesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormier, Nicole; Twilley, Robert R.; Ewel, Katherine C.; Krauss, Ken W.

    2015-01-01

    Belowground biomass is thought to account for much of the total biomass in mangrove forests and may be related to soil fertility. The Yela River and the Sapwalap River, Federated States of Micronesia, contain a natural soil resource gradient defined by total phosphorus (P) density ranging from 0.05 to 0.42 mg cm−3 in different hydrogeomorphic settings. We used this fertility gradient to test the hypothesis that edaphic conditions constrain mangrove productivity through differential allocation of biomass to belowground roots. We removed sequential cores and implanted root ingrowth bags to measure in situ biomass and productivity, respectively. Belowground root biomass values ranged among sites from 0.448 ± 0.096 to 2.641 ± 0.534 kg m−2. Root productivity (roots ≤20 mm) did not vary significantly along the gradient (P = 0.3355) or with P fertilization after 6 months (P = 0.2968). Fine root productivity (roots ≤2 mm), however, did vary significantly among sites (P = 0.0363) and ranged from 45.88 ± 21.37 to 118.66 ± 38.05 g m−2 year−1. The distribution of total standing root biomass and fine root productivity followed patterns of N:P ratios as hypothesized, with larger root mass generally associated with lower relative P concentrations. Many of the processes of nutrient acquisition reported from nutrient-limited mangrove forests may also occur in forests of greater biomass and productivity when growing along soil nutrient gradients.

  3. Landslides induced by heavy rainfall in July 2012 in Northern Kyushu District, Japan and the influence of long term rainfall increase comparing with the slope destabilization due to strong seismic shaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Tetsuya; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Aditian, Aril

    2013-04-01

    1. Objective We had a deluge in July 2012 in the northern Kyushu district with intense rainfall of 800mm and 108mm/hr. This intensity yielded countless traces of debris flow and landslides, slope failures that induced tremendous damage and causalities in the area. Hence, several field investigations and reconnaissance tasks were conducted to delve into this sediment-related disaster. The various results and the information obtained through this investigation were reported, mentioning the damage, the meteorological condition, geologic-geomorphologic features and hydraulic characteristics of the debris flows, vegetation effects, and the influence of the climate change. Increase in rainfall that may be induced by the global climate change is obvious in Kyushu district, Japan, according to the analysis of rain data observed in various locations including mountainside points that are not influenced by local warming due to urbanization. On this point of view, we are intrigued to elucidate the response of landslide to this increase in rainfall. Hence, its long term impact on this landslide disaster is also analyzed comparing with the slope destabilization due to strong seismic shaking. 2. Method and target areas Field investigation on landslides slopes, slope failures and torrents where debris flows occurred are conducted to obtain the geologic data, geo-structure, vegetation feature, soil samples and topographic data i.e. cross sections, then soil shear tests and soil permeability tests are also conducted. The rainfall data at the nearest rain observatory were obtained from the database of Japan meteorological agency. The long term impact on the slope stability at some slopes in the area is analyzed by the finite element method (FEM) combined with rain infiltration and seepage analysis with the long term rainfall fluctuation data, obtaining factor of safety ( Fs) on real landslide slopes. The results are compared with the destabilized influence on the slopes due to the

  4. Effect of water stress in soil-water-vegetation relationships, along a rainfall gradient in southern Spain; Incidencia del stress hidrico en las relaciones suelo-agua-planta a lo largo de un gradiente pluviometrico en el sur de Espana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.; Ferre Bueno, E.; Martinez-Murillo, J. F.; Gabarron-Galeote, M. A.

    2009-07-01

    The Andalusian Mediterranean Watershed, in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, shows a climatic gradient from the Straits of Gibraltar (1,600 mm year{sup -1}) to the Cabo de Gata (150 mm year{sup -1}). Climate conditions differences are translating into variations in the elements of the eco-geomorphologic system at hillslope scale. In this study has been analysed the immediate consequences of a period of two years drought (2004-06) on several elements of the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system at three hillslopes (sub-humid, dry Mediterranean and semi-arid). the soil water content, the pattern of vegetation and some soil properties (organic matter content, aggregate stability and permeability) were analysed before (Nov-2003) and during (Nov-2005) the drought period. Final results have shown: i) reduction in soil water content which reached in the wet seasons values below wilting point, affecting negatively to the water available for vegetation and especially in the wettest sites; ii) reduction in vegetation cover and in the number of plants, especially at semi-arid field site; iii) changes in the organic matter content which aggravates the loss of stability of soil aggregates, a process seen more clearly under more arid conditions; and iv) reduction of soil permeability in all situations in the climate gradient studied, which supposes a priori an increase in erosive processes due to surface runoff. These results indicate increased vulnerability of the eco-geomorphologic system because of the rainfall drought situation. (Author) 14 refs.

  5. Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

    KAUST Repository

    Sawall, Yvonne

    2015-03-10

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

  6. Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sönke; Banguera-Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin

    2015-03-01

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

  7. Assesing the temporal and spatial performance of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Verbist, Koen; Ribbe, Lars

    2017-04-01

    Accurate representation of the real spatio-temporal variability of catchment rainfall inputs is currently severely limited. Moreover, spatially interpolated catchment precipitation is subject to large uncertainties, particularly in developing countries and regions which are difficult to access. Recently, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRE) provide an unprecedented opportunity for a wide range of hydrological applications, from water resources modelling to monitoring of extreme events such as droughts and floods. This study attempts to exhaustively evaluate -for the first time- the suitability of seven state-of-the-art SRE products (TMPA 3B42v7, CHIRPSv2, CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIAN-CCS-adj, MSWEPv1.1 and PGFv3) over the complex topography and diverse climatic gradients of Chile. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual) are used in a point-to-pixel comparison between precipitation time series measured at 366 stations (from sea level to 4600 m a.s.l. in the Andean Plateau) and the corresponding grid cell of each SRE (rescaled to a 0.25° grid if necessary). The modified Kling-Gupta efficiency was used to identify possible sources of systematic errors in each SRE. In addition, five categorical indices (PC, POD, FAR, ETS, fBIAS) were used to assess the ability of each SRE to correctly identify different precipitation intensities. Results revealed that most SRE products performed better for the humid South (36.4-43.7°S) and Central Chile (32.18-36.4°S), in particular at low- and mid-elevation zones (0-1000 m a.s.l.) compared to the arid northern regions and the Far South. Seasonally, all products performed best during the wet seasons autumn and winter (MAM-JJA) compared to summer (DJF) and spring (SON). In addition, all SREs were able to correctly identify the occurrence of no rain events, but they presented a low skill in classifying precipitation intensities during rainy days. Overall, PGFv3 exhibited the best performance everywhere and

  8. Calorific value of Prosopis africana and Balanites aegyptiaca wood: Relationships with tree growth, wood density and rainfall gradients in the West African Sahel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montes, Carmen Sotelo; Weber, John C. [World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Sahel Office, B.P. E 5118 Bamako (Mali); Silva, Dimas Agostinho da; Bolzon de Muniz, Graciela Ines [Universidade Federal do Parana (UFPR), Av. Lothario Meissner, 900, CEP.: 80270-170-Curitiba (Brazil); Garcia, Rosilei A. [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Instituto de Florestas, Departamento de Produtos Florestais, BR 465, km 07, 23890-000, Seropedica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2011-01-15

    Prosopis africana and Balanites aegyptiaca are native tree species in the West African Sahel and provide wood for fuel, construction and other essential products. A provenance/progeny test of each species was established at one relatively dry site in Niger, and evaluated at 13 years. Gross calorific value of the wood was determined for a random sample of trees in each test: gross CV and CVm{sup 3} = gross calorific value in MJ kg{sup -1} and MJ m{sup -3}, respectively. The major objectives were to determine if gross CV was positively correlated with wood density and tree growth, and if gross CV and/or CVm{sup 3} varied with rainfall gradients in the sample region. Provenances were grouped into a drier and more humid zone, and correlations were computed among all trees and separately in each zone. Results indicated that gross CV was not significantly correlated with density in either species. Gross CV was positively correlated with growth of P. africana (but not B. aegyptiaca) only in the drier zone. Gross CVm{sup 3} was positively correlated with growth of both species, and the correlations were stronger in the drier zone. Multiple regressions with provenance latitude, longitude and elevation indicated that provenance means for gross CV increased, in general, from the drier to the more humid zones. Regressions with gross CVm{sup 3} were not significant. Results are compared with earlier research reports from the provenance/progeny tests and with other tropical hardwood species; and practical implications are presented for tree improvement and conservation programs in the region. (author)

  9. EUROMECH colloquium 377. Stability and control of shear flows with strong temperature or density gradients. Book of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-10-01

    The topics discussed comprise the onset of instability in heated free jets and jets with density gradients, flow past heated/cooled boundaries, atmospheric shear flow, and mathematical modeling of laminar-turbulent transition phenomena. Three contributions have been input to INIS. (P.A.)

  10. Effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes and sediment characteristics along the climatic gradient in central-south China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xinliang; Wei, Yujie; Wang, Junguang; Xia, Jinwen; Cai, Chongfa; Wei, Zhiyuan

    2018-04-15

    Soil erosion poses a major threat to the sustainability of natural ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes (hydrological, erosional processes and sediment characteristics) from temperate to tropical climate. Field plot experiments were conducted under pre-wetted bare fallow condition for five soil types (two Luvisols, an Alisol, an Acrisol and a Ferralsol) with heavy textures (silty clay loam, silty clay and clay) derived separately from loess deposits, quaternary red clays and basalt in central-south China. Rainfall simulations were performed at two rainfall intensities (45 and 90mmh -1 ) and lasted one hour after runoff generation. Runoff coefficient, sediment concentration, sediment yield rate and sediment effective size distribution were determined at 3-min intervals. Runoff temporal variations were similar at the high rainfall intensity, but exhibited a remarkable difference at the low rainfall intensity among soil types except for tropical Ferralsol. Illite was positively correlated with runoff coefficient (perosion varied under the interaction of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration) and soil types, with amorphous iron oxides and bulk density jointly enhancing soil resistance to erosive forces (Adj-R 2 >88%, perosion processes at the spatial-temporal scale from the perspective of soil properties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

    2018-01-21

    Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ken Ferrier,; J. Taylor Perron,; Sujoy Mukhopadhyay,; Matt Rosener,; Stock, Jonathan; Slosberg, Michelle; Kimberly L. Huppert,

    2013-01-01

    Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km–2 yr–1. In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km–2 yr–1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km–2 yr–1. Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km–2 yr–1. These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

  13. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    industrialization. The development of small cloud droplets into larger particles requires time. A single thunderstorm cell has a mean development time of about 20 minutes and a life time of around 45 minutes with a mean mind of 10m/s, an air parcel would travel 12 km from the beginning of droplet formation to the first precipitation. That means that the precipitation field is shifted downwind of settlements. It could also explain the the higher frequency of the trace to small amounts observed in Calgary since those events occur under relatively calm weather. Whereas the majority of studies have focused on summer convectional type events, little appears to have been done on the extreme rainfall events on which most structural designs are based. Is there a detectable urban bias in these events? Do urban areas intensify them? What are the implications of point distribution of extreme rainfall events on flood frequency across a city. This paper examines the spatial distribution of the mean annual maximum rainfall event in Calgary, Canada, with a view to determining the relative contribution of geographical setting and urbanisation to point patterns. The data are subsequently maximized to produce maps of probable maximum precipitation for the city. The major results are as follows: (a) position along storm path is the most important variable determining maximum rainfall hazard, (b) higher grounds receive up to seventy percent more maximum rainfall than values based on spatial trend, (c) urban structure and geometry correlate negatively with maximum rainfall intensity, however, (d) zones of maximum flood peaks are found down slope of areas of maximum precipitation increasing flood hazard in the inner city in spite of its lower precipitation. Drainage networks based on point rainfall patterns have proved grossly inadequate for flood mitigation. The new design based on this study recognizes the strong moisture gradients caused by rapid movement of water and other elements down slope. Snow

  14. Internal Wave Exposure in Eastern Tropical Pacific Panamá and Costa Rica is Coincident with Strong Vertical Gradients in Shallow Water Benthic Community Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichter, J.

    2016-02-01

    Multi-year time series and hydrographic observations at near shore sites in Eastern Tropical Pacific Panamá and Costa Rica show regionally coherent internal wave exposure that is strongly modulated across seasons. Sites were sampled to the west of the Osa Peninsula in Costa Rica and near Isla Coiba in Panamá with spatial separation of approximately 250 km. From approximately January through April each year, internal wave activity inferred from high frequency temperature variability is pronounced, associated with well developed and shallow density stratification. The occurrence of highly variable temperatures is correlated with shallow density stratification and oxygen concentrations as low as 1 to 1.5 µg L-1 measured at the base of the thermocline at 50 to 60 m depth in the offshore water column during winter and spring conditions. The physical variability in the near shore corresponds to and appears to drive strong vertical gradients in the benthic community assemblages on rocky substrata. With increasing depth the benthic communities are dominated by scleractinian corals (predominantly in the genera Pocillopora, Pavona, and Porites) from near the surface to approximately 8 m depth, followed by of a range of sessile suspension feeders including sea fans and gorgonians at approximately 10 to 20 m depth, and predominantly rocky bare space with sporadic algal and isolated invertebrate communities to 30 m depth which was the limit of the current sampling. This vertical patterning of the benthic community appears to reflect the strong vertical gradients in hydrographic forcing. From May through December hydrographic conditions at the benthic study sites is significantly less variable, associated with deeper offshore stratification and a decrease in temperature variation driven by internal wave activity impinging on the shallow water ecosystems. The highly variable physical environment in these tropical settings sets a context for strong patterning of benthic

  15. Link between convection and meridional gradient of sea surface ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    . Resolution. URL. SST. TMI ... In this paper, we use satellite data for SST and rainfall to show that there exists a strong relationship between convec- tion and the meridional gradient of SST in the bay. We show that convection sets in within a ...

  16. Changes in Allometric Attributes and Biomass of Forests and Woodlands across an Altitudinal and Rainfall Gradient: What Are the Implications of Increasing Seasonality due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Hunter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Canonical correspondence analysis and linear regressions were used to relate height, diameter, and dispersion measurements of 36,380 stems from 197 species recorded in 2,341 plots against both climatic and landscape variables. Above ground biomass increased in wetter and cooler locations that ameliorate the seasonal rainfall deficits. Taller and greater diameter trees with lower wood densities occur at higher altitudes. Differences between locations are based on a change in the composition of species rather than a change in the allometric properties within a species. The results support the hydraulic limitation and species packing hypotheses. These interrelationships may be affected by the interactions of fire frequency and drought which are a common feature of much of the study area. Under current climate change scenarios it is likely that there will be a reduction in above ground biomass, the number of stems per hectare, average height, average diameter, and basal area due to increasing seasonality of rainfall, temperatures, and the intensity and frequency of fires. The largest of trees are likely to be removed early due to their inability to cope with increased drought stress. The results suggest a marked reduction in carbon storage will occur across the study region in eastern Australia.

  17. Experimental and numerical study of the stability of phyllosilicates in a strong thermal gradient. Test in the geothermal site of Soultz-sous-Forets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldeyrou-Bailly, A.

    2003-01-01

    Thermodynamic data of hydrated phyllosilicates, in particular clay minerals are not well known. The stability fields of these minerals are not well determined; following some authors they even do not exist. We have developed an experimental approach, in which a sequence of local equilibrium states between a fluid and minerals take place in a closed gold cell along a strong thermal gradient. The experiments were conducted in the chemical systems: Mg-Al-Si-H 2 O (MASH), K-Al-Si-H 2 O (KASH), and K-Mg-Al-Si-H 2 O (KMASH). The sequences of crystallization observed along the thermal gradient are the same if one exchanges the position of the cells containing the initial reacting materials with respect to the thermal gradient end-members. The crystallization sequences correspond to local equilibrium states. Following the temperature increase (from 200 to 350 C) one observes the following sequences: di-octahedral smectite? tri-octahedral smectite; kaolinite? donbassite? tri-octahedral chlorite; smectite? illite? muscovite; or even kaolinite? illite + smectite? donbassite; commonly observed in hydrothermal systems. They allow to develop a thermodynamic model for hydrated phyllosilicates, taking into account their hydration state as a function of temperature. This model shows the stability fields of clay minerals between 200 and 350 C.The chemical and mineralogical dynamics showed in these experimental systems has been applied to predict the possible dissolutions and/or precipitations which may take place between the circulated hot fluid and the geothermal granitic reservoir in the geothermal system at Soultz-sous-Forets. These processes may affect the duration of the geothermal reservoir, as a function of evolution in the morphology of the porosity. Our experimental approach shows that feldspars and smectites are forming the major part of the total volume of silicates which may precipitate in addition to carbonates already described in previous studies. (author)

  18. Is the Success of Plant Invasions the Result of Rapid Adaptive Evolution in Seed Traits? Evidence from a Latitudinal Rainfall Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Flores, Tomás S M; Hereme, Rasme; Lafon, Alejandra; Atala, Cristian; Torres-Díaz, Cristian

    2018-01-01

    It has been widely suggested that invasion success along broad environmental gradients may be partially due to phenotypic plasticity, but rapid evolution could also be a relevant factor for invasions. Seed and fruit traits can be relevant for plant invasiveness since they are related to dispersal, germination, and fitness. Some seed traits vary along environmental gradients and can be heritable, with the potential to evolve by means of natural selection. Utilizing cross-latitude and reciprocal-transplant experiments, we evaluated the adaptive value of seed thickness as assessed by survival and biomass accumulation in Taraxacum officinale plants. In addition, thickness of a seed and Endosperm to Seed Coat Proportion (ESCP) in a second generation ( F 2 ) was measured to evaluate the heritability of this seed trait. On the other hand, we characterized the genetic variability of the sampled individuals with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, analyzing its spatial distribution and population structure. Overall, thickness of seed coat (plus wall achene) decreases with latitude, indicating that individuals of T. officinale from northern populations have a thicker seed coat than those from southern populations. Germination increased with greater addition of water and seeds from southern localities germinated significantly more than those from the north. Additionally, reciprocal transplants showed significant differences in survival percentage and biomass accumulation among individuals from different localities and moreover, the high correlation between maternal plants and their offspring can be suggesting a high grade of heritability of this trait. Although genetic differentiation was found when was considered all populations, there was no significant differentiation when only was compared the northernmost populations which inhabit in the driest climate conditions. Our results suggest that climatic conditions could affect both, the ESCP and the genetic

  19. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012–2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfallduration ...

  20. Is the Success of Plant Invasions the Result of Rapid Adaptive Evolution in Seed Traits? Evidence from a Latitudinal Rainfall Gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Montenegro, Marco A.; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Flores, Tomás S. M.; Hereme, Rasme; Lafon, Alejandra; Atala, Cristian; Torres-Díaz, Cristian

    2018-01-01

    It has been widely suggested that invasion success along broad environmental gradients may be partially due to phenotypic plasticity, but rapid evolution could also be a relevant factor for invasions. Seed and fruit traits can be relevant for plant invasiveness since they are related to dispersal, germination, and fitness. Some seed traits vary along environmental gradients and can be heritable, with the potential to evolve by means of natural selection. Utilizing cross-latitude and reciprocal-transplant experiments, we evaluated the adaptive value of seed thickness as assessed by survival and biomass accumulation in Taraxacum officinale plants. In addition, thickness of a seed and Endosperm to Seed Coat Proportion (ESCP) in a second generation (F2) was measured to evaluate the heritability of this seed trait. On the other hand, we characterized the genetic variability of the sampled individuals with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, analyzing its spatial distribution and population structure. Overall, thickness of seed coat (plus wall achene) decreases with latitude, indicating that individuals of T. officinale from northern populations have a thicker seed coat than those from southern populations. Germination increased with greater addition of water and seeds from southern localities germinated significantly more than those from the north. Additionally, reciprocal transplants showed significant differences in survival percentage and biomass accumulation among individuals from different localities and moreover, the high correlation between maternal plants and their offspring can be suggesting a high grade of heritability of this trait. Although genetic differentiation was found when was considered all populations, there was no significant differentiation when only was compared the northernmost populations which inhabit in the driest climate conditions. Our results suggest that climatic conditions could affect both, the ESCP and the genetic

  1. Is the Success of Plant Invasions the Result of Rapid Adaptive Evolution in Seed Traits? Evidence from a Latitudinal Rainfall Gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A. Molina-Montenegro

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available It has been widely suggested that invasion success along broad environmental gradients may be partially due to phenotypic plasticity, but rapid evolution could also be a relevant factor for invasions. Seed and fruit traits can be relevant for plant invasiveness since they are related to dispersal, germination, and fitness. Some seed traits vary along environmental gradients and can be heritable, with the potential to evolve by means of natural selection. Utilizing cross-latitude and reciprocal-transplant experiments, we evaluated the adaptive value of seed thickness as assessed by survival and biomass accumulation in Taraxacum officinale plants. In addition, thickness of a seed and Endosperm to Seed Coat Proportion (ESCP in a second generation (F2 was measured to evaluate the heritability of this seed trait. On the other hand, we characterized the genetic variability of the sampled individuals with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP markers, analyzing its spatial distribution and population structure. Overall, thickness of seed coat (plus wall achene decreases with latitude, indicating that individuals of T. officinale from northern populations have a thicker seed coat than those from southern populations. Germination increased with greater addition of water and seeds from southern localities germinated significantly more than those from the north. Additionally, reciprocal transplants showed significant differences in survival percentage and biomass accumulation among individuals from different localities and moreover, the high correlation between maternal plants and their offspring can be suggesting a high grade of heritability of this trait. Although genetic differentiation was found when was considered all populations, there was no significant differentiation when only was compared the northernmost populations which inhabit in the driest climate conditions. Our results suggest that climatic conditions could affect both, the ESCP and

  2. Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

    2017-12-01

    of 5 mm/min was used to irrigate a corrupted soil sample. The experiment was undertaken for several different slopes, under the condition of no vegetation cover. The results of the rainfall simulation experiment complied with the expectations of a strong relationship between the slope gradient, and the amount of surface runoff generated. The experiments with higher slope gradients were characterised by larger volumes of surface runoff generated, and by shorter times after which it occurred. The experiments with rainfall simulators in both laboratory and field conditions play an important role in better understanding of runoff generation processes. The results of such small scale experiments could be used to estimate some of the parameters of complex hydrological models, which are used to model rainfall-runoff and erosion processes at catchment scale.

  3. Evolution and ecology meet molecular genetics: adaptive phenotypic plasticity in two isolated Negev desert populations of Acacia raddiana at either end of a rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, David; Shrestha, Madan K.; Golan-Goldhirsh, Avi

    2012-01-01

    Background and Aims The ecological, evolutionary and genetic bases of population differentiation in a variable environment are often related to the selection pressures that plants experience. We compared differences in several growth- and defence-related traits in two isolated populations of Acacia raddiana trees from sites at either end of an extreme environmental gradient in the Negev desert. Methods We used random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) to determine the molecular differences between populations. We grew plants under two levels of water, three levels of nutrients and three levels of herbivory to test for phenotypic plasticity and adaptive phenotypic plasticity. Key Results The RAPD analyses showed that these populations are highly genetically differentiated. Phenotypic plasticity in various morphological traits in A. raddiana was related to patterns of population genetic differentiation between the two study sites. Although we did not test for maternal effects in these long-lived trees, significant genotype × environment (G × E) interactions in some of these traits indicated that such plasticity may be adaptive. Conclusions The main selection pressure in this desert environment, perhaps unsurprisingly, is water. Increased water availability resulted in greater growth in the southern population, which normally receives far less rain than the northern population. Even under the conditions that we defined as low water and/or nutrients, the performance of the seedlings from the southern population was significantly better, perhaps reflecting selection for these traits. Consistent with previous studies of this genus, there was no evidence of trade-offs between physical and chemical defences and plant growth parameters in this study. Rather, there appeared to be positive correlations between plant size and defence parameters. The great variation in several traits in both populations may result in a diverse potential for responding to selection pressures in

  4. Hydrologic response in karstic-ridge wetlands to rainfall and evapotranspiration, central Florida, 2001-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Leel; Phelps, G.G.; Kinnaman, Sandra L.; German, Edward R.

    2005-01-01

    though rainfall was far above average during the study, wetland evaporation volumetrically exceeded rainfall. Ground-water inflow was effective in partially offsetting the negative residual between rainfall and evaporation, thus adding to wetland storage. Ground-water inflow was most common at both wetlands when rainfall continued for days or weeks, or during a week with more than about 2.5 inches of rainfall. Large decreases in wetland storage were associated with large negative fluxes of evaporation and ground-water exchange. The response of wetland water levels to rainfall showed a strong and similar relation at both study sites; however, the greater variability in the relation of wetland water-level change to rainfall at higher rainfall rates indicated that hydrologic processes other than rainfall became more important in the response of the wetland. Changes in wetland water levels seemed to be related more to vertical gradients than to lateral gradients. The largest wetland water-level rises were associated mostly with lower vertical gradients, when vertical head differences were below the 18-month average; however, at the Lyonia large wetland, extremely large lateral gradients toward the wetland during late June 2002 may have contributed to substantial gains in wetland water. During the remainder of the study, wetland water-level rises were associated mostly with decreasing vertical gradients and highly variable lateral gradients. Conversely, wetland water-level decreases were associated mostly with increasing vertical gradients and lateral gradients away from the wetland, particularly during the dry season. The potential for lateral ground-water exchange with the wetlands varied substantially more than that for vertical exchange. Potential for vertical losses of wetland water to ground water was highest during a dry period from December 2001 to June 2002, during the wet season of 2002, and for several months into the following dry season. Lateral he

  5. Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

    2016-01-01

    Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

  6. Relationships between Tropical Rainfall Events and Regional Annual Rainfall Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

    2016-12-01

    Regional annual precipitation anomalies strongly impact the health of regional ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and the probability of flood and drought conditions. Individual event characteristics, including rain rate, areal coverage, and stratiform fraction are also crucial in considering large-scale impacts on these resources. Therefore, forecasting individual event characteristics is important and could potentially be improved through correlation with longer and better predicted timescale environmental variables such as annual rainfall. This study examines twelve years of retrieved rainfall characteristics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at a 5° x 5° resolution between 35°N and 35°S, as a function of annual rainfall anomaly derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Rainfall event characteristics are derived at a system scale from the University of Utah TRMM Precipitation Features database and at a 5-km pixel scale from TRMM 2A25 products. For each 5° x 5° grid box and year, relationships between these characteristics and annual rainfall anomaly are derived. Additionally, years are separated into wet and dry groups for each grid box and are compared versus one another. Convective and stratiform rain rates, along with system area and volumetric rainfall, generally increase during wetter years, and this increase is most prominent over oceans. This is in agreement with recent studies suggesting that convective systems become larger and rainier when regional annual rainfall increases or when the climate warms. Over some land regions, on the other hand, system rain rate, volumetric rainfall, and area actually decrease as annual rainfall increases. Therefore, land and ocean regions generally exhibit different relationships. In agreement with recent studies of extreme rainfall in a changing climate, the largest and rainiest systems increase in relative size and intensity compared to average systems, and do

  7. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  8. Rainfall erosivity in Central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla, Carlos A.; Vidal, Karim L.

    2011-11-01

    SummaryOne of the most widely used indicators of potential water erosion risk is the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor ( R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R is traditionally determined by calculating a long-term average of the annual sum of the product of a storm's kinetic energy ( E) and its maximum 30-min intensity ( I30), known as the EI30. The original method used to calculate EI30 requires pluviograph records for at most 30-min time intervals. Such high resolution data is difficult to obtain in many parts of the world, and processing it is laborious and time-consuming. In Chile, even though there is a well-distributed rain gauge network, there is no systematic characterization of the territory in terms of rainfall erosivity. This study presents a rainfall erosivity map for most of the cultivated land in the country. R values were calculated by the prescribed method for 16 stations with continuous graphical record rain gauges in Central Chile. The stations were distributed along 800 km (north-south), and spanned a precipitation gradient of 140-2200 mm yr -1. More than 270 years of data were used, and 5400 storms were analyzed. Additionally, 241 spatially distributed R values were generated by using an empirical procedure based on annual rainfall. Point estimates generated by both methods were interpolated by using kriging to create a map of rainfall erosivity for Central Chile. The results show that the empirical procedure used in this study predicted the annual rainfall erosivity well (model efficiency = 0.88). Also, an increment in the rainfall erosivities was found as a result of the rainfall depths, a regional feature determined by elevation and increasing with latitude from north to south. R values in the study area range from 90 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the north up to 7375 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the southern area, at the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Although the map and the estimates could be improved in the future by

  9. Modelling persistence in annual Australia point rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Whiting

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual rainfall time series for Sydney from 1859 to 1999 is analysed. Clear evidence of nonstationarity is presented, but substantial evidence for persistence or hidden states is more elusive. A test of the hypothesis that a hidden state Markov model reduces to a mixture distribution is presented. There is strong evidence of a correlation between the annual rainfall and climate indices. Strong evidence of persistence of one of these indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, is presented together with a demonstration that this is better modelled by fractional differencing than by a hidden state Markov model. It is shown that conditioning the logarithm of rainfall on PDO, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI, and their interaction provides realistic simulation of rainfall that matches observed statistics. Similar simulation models are presented for Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Keywords: Hydrological persistence,hidden state Markov models, fractional differencing, PDO, SOI, Australian rainfall

  10. Detachable strong cation exchange monolith, integrated with capillary zone electrophoresis and coupled with pH gradient elution, produces improved sensitivity and numbers of peptide identifications during bottom-up analysis of complex proteomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenbin; Yan, Xiaojing; Sun, Liangliang; Zhu, Guijie; Dovichi, Norman J

    2015-04-21

    A detachable sulfonate-silica hybrid strong cation-exchange monolith was synthesized in a fused silica capillary, and used for solid phase extraction with online pH gradient elution during capillary zone electrophoresis-tandem mass spectrometry (CZE-MS/MS) proteomic analysis. Tryptic digests were prepared in 50 mM formic acid and loaded onto the strong cation-exchange monolith. Fractions were eluted using a series of buffers with lower concentration but higher pH values than the 50 mM formic acid background electrolyte. This combination of elution and background electrolytes results in both sample stacking and formation of a dynamic pH junction and allows use of relatively large elution buffer volumes while maintaining reasonable peak efficiency and resolution. A series of five pH bumps were applied to elute E. coli tryptic peptides from the monolith, followed by analysis using CZE coupled to an LTQ-Orbitrap Velos mass spectrometer; 799 protein groups and 3381 peptides were identified from 50 ng of the digest in a 2.5 h analysis, which approaches the identification rate for this organism that was obtained with an Orbitrap Fusion. We attribute the improved numbers of peptide and protein identifications to the efficient fractionation by the online pH gradient elution, which decreased the complexity of the sample in each elution step and improved the signal intensity of low abundance peptides. We also performed a comparative analysis using a nanoACQUITY UltraPerformance LCH system. Similar numbers of protein and peptide identifications were produced by the two methods. Protein identifications showed significant overlap between the two methods, whereas peptide identifications were complementary.

  11. Acidity in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tisue, G.T.; Kacoyannakis, J.

    1975-01-01

    The reported increasing acidity of rainfall raises many interesting ecological and chemical questions. In spite of extensive studies in Europe and North America there are, for example, great uncertainties in the relative contributions of strong and weak acids to the acid-base properties of rainwater. Unravelling this and similar problems may require even more rigorous sample collection and analytical procedures than previously employed. Careful analysis of titration curves permits inferences to be made regarding chemical composition, the possible response of rainwater to further inputs of acidic components to the atmosphere, and the behavior to be expected when rainwater interacts with the buffers present in biological materials and natural waters. Rainwater samples collected during several precipitation events at Argonne National Laboratory during October and November 1975 have been analyzed for pH, acid and base neutralizing properties, and the ions of ammonium, nitrate, chloride, sulfate, and calcium. The results are tabulated

  12. Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

  13. Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

  14. Factors controlling January-April rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialard, J. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India); Terray, P. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); Duvel, J.P. [CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Nanjundiah, R.S. [IISc, Center of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Shenoi, S.S.C. [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Shankar, D. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India)

    2011-08-15

    Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June-September) and Northeast (October-December) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January-April climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ninos being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of -0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ninas/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ninos. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the

  15. Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential

  16. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

    2018-02-01

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

  17. Rainfall Variability of South East Queensland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Louise; Manton, Michael; Siems, Steven

    2010-05-01

    February, with peak falls tending to be in February. The ‘wet' regimes are responsible for the majority of the region's rainfall. Southeasterly wind regimes are commonly associated with trade wind or ‘stream' showers and coastal trade wind cumulus. When there is significant moisture such as for the ‘moist' southeasterly regime these systems can bring significant rainfall to the region. The northwesterly regime can produce deep convection and contributes greatly to the total annual rainfall (21.7%) despite occurring less than 7% of the time. The easterly and westerly regimes also are major contributors to annual rainfall. There are also significant rainfall events during the dry season such as intense sub-tropical cyclones (east-coast lows) that bring sustained strong winds and intense rainfall to the region. In general, however, the winter season is dry and is well described by a southwesterly regime and a ‘dry' southeasterly regime. The dominant synoptic regime, the southeasterly regime, does not contribute significantly to the total rainfall in any month. The relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall over most of Queensland is strong. The correlation between SEQ monthly rainfall anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was calculated over the period 1858-2008. A small but significant correlation is found between the SOI and rainfall in southeastern Queensland. The low correlation indicates that the rainfall is controlled by other factors in addition to the El Nino - Southern Oscillation.

  18. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-01-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

  19. Strong congruence in tree and fern community turnover in response to soils and climate in central Panama

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Mirkka; Ferrier, Simon; Condit, Richard

    2013-01-01

    and seasonality undoubtedly limit plant distributions in this region, soil effects are at least as important, and interactions between the two are sizeable. This is likely to hold elsewhere in the Caribbean region, where mosaics of marine and volcanic soils combined with pronounced rainfall gradients are common......1. Plant species turnover in central Panamanian forests has been principally attributed to the effects of dispersal limitation and a strong Caribbean to Pacific gradient in rainfall seasonality. Despite marked geological heterogeneity, the role of soil variation has not been rigorously examined. 2....... We modelled the compositional turnover of trees and ferns in the Panama Canal watershed as a function of soil chemistry, climate and geographical separation, using generalized dissimilarity models (GDMs). 3. Predictability in both plant groups was strong, with 74% of turnover explained in trees...

  20. Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn

    2015-04-01

    The fact that persistent spatial organization in catchments exists has inspired many scientists to speculate whether this is the manifestation of an underlying organizing principle. In line with these studies we developed and tested a thermodynamic framework to link rainfall runoff generation and self-organization in catchments. From a thermodynamic perspective any water mass flux is equal to a "potential gradient" divided by a "resistance", and fluxes deplete due to the second law of thermodynamics their driving gradients. Relevant potentials controlling rainfall runoff are soil water potentials, piezometric heads and surface water levels and their gradients are associated with spatial differences in associated forms of free energy. Rainfall runoff processes thus are associated with conversions of capillary binding energy, potential energy and kinetic energy. These conversions reflect energy conservation and irreversibility as they imply small amounts of dissipation of free energy into heat and thus production of entropy. Energy conversions during rainfall runoff transformation are, though being small, nevertheless of key importance, because they are related to the partitioning of incoming rainfall mass into runoff components and storage dynamics. This splitting and the subsequent subsurface dynamics is strongly controlled by preferential flow paths, which in turn largely influence hydrologically relevant resistance fields in larger control volumes. The field of subsurface flow resistances depends for instance on soil hydraulic conductivity, its spatial covariance and soil moisture. Apparent preferential pathways reduce, depending on their density, topology and spatial extent, subsurface flow resistances along their main extent, resulting in accelerated fluxes against the driving gradient. This implies an enlarged power in the subsurface flux thereby either an enlarged free energy export from the control volume or an increased depletion of internal driving

  1. An expansion of the field modulus suitable for the description of strong field gradients in axisymmetric magnetic fields: application to single-sided magnet design, field mapping and STRAFI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugon, Cedric; Aubert, Guy; Sakellariou, Dimitris

    2012-01-01

    Mapping (or plotting) the magnetic field has a critical importance for the achievement of the homogeneous magnetic field necessary to standard MR experiments. A powerful tool for this purpose is the Spherical Harmonic Expansion (SHE), which provides a simple way to describe the spatial variations of a field in free space. Well-controlled non-zero spatial variations of the field are critical to MRI. The resolution of the image is directly related to the strength of the gradient used to encode space. As a result, it is desirable to have strong variations of the field. In that case, the SHE cannot be used as is, because the field modulus variations are affected by the variations of all components of the field. In this paper, we propose a method based on the SHE to characterize such variations, theoretically and experimentally, in the limit of an axisymmetric magnetic field. Practical applications of this method are proposed through the examples of single-sided magnet design and characterization, along with Stray-Field Imaging (STRAFI). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  3. Effects of episodic rainfall on a subterranean estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiayang; Xin, Pei; Lu, Chunhui; Robinson, Clare; Li, Ling; Barry, D. A.

    2017-07-01

    Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the effect of episodic rainfall on nearshore groundwater dynamics in a tidally influenced unconfined coastal aquifer, with a focus on both long-term (yearly) and short-term (daily) behavior of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and seawater intrusion (SWI). The results showed nonlinear interactions among the processes driven by rainfall, tides, and density gradients. Rainfall-induced infiltration increased the yearly averaged fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean but reduced the extents of the saltwater wedge and upper saline plume as well as the total rate of seawater circulation through both zones. Overall, the net effect of the interactions led to an increase of the SGD. The nearshore groundwater responded to individual rainfall events in a delayed and cumulative fashion, as evident in the variations of daily averaged SGD and salt stored in the saltwater wedge (quantifying the extent of SWI). A generalized linear model (GLM) along with a Gamma distribution function was developed to describe the delayed and prolonged effect of rainfall events on short-term groundwater behavior. This model validated with results of daily averaged SGD and SWI from the simulations of groundwater and solute transport using independent rainfall data sets, performed well in predicting the behavior of the nearshore groundwater system under the combined influence of episodic rainfall, tides, and density gradients. The findings and developed GLM form a basis for evaluating and predicting SGD, SWI, and associated mass fluxes from unconfined coastal aquifers under natural conditions, including episodic rainfall.

  4. Metabolic rates and tissue composition of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa over 12 latitudes in the Red Sea characterized by strong temperature and nutrient gradient, supplement to: Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, A; Hohn, S; Banguera-Hinestroza, E; Voolstra, Christian R; Wahl, Martin (2015): Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming. Scientific Reports, 5, 8940

    KAUST Repository

    Sawall, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12 degrees latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5 degrees N, 21-27 degrees C) and southern (16.5 degrees N, 28-33 degrees C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29 degrees C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals

  5. An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2009-04-01

    The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a "universal" probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.

  6. A 130 ka reconstruction of rainfall on the Bolivian Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Placzek, C. J.; Quade, J.; Patchett, P. J.

    2013-02-01

    New efforts to link climate reconstructions from shoreline deposits and sediment cores yield an improved and more detailed lake history from the Bolivian Altiplano. On the Southern Altiplano, 10 lake oscillations have been identified from this new unified chronology, each coincident with North Atlantic cold events such as Heinrich Events H5, H2, H1, and the Younger Dryas. By coupling this new lake history to a hydrologic budget model we are able to evaluate precipitation variability on the Southern Bolivian Altiplano over the last 130 ka. These modeling efforts underscore the relative aridity of the Altiplano during the rare and small lake cycles occurring between 80 and 20 ka, when colder temperatures combined with little or no change in rainfall produced smaller paleolakes. Relative aridity between 80 and 20 ka contrasts with the immense Tauca lake cycle (18.1-14.1 ka), which was six times larger than modern Lake Titicaca and coincided with Heinrich Event 1. This improved paleolake record from the Southern Altiplano reveals a strong link between central Andean climate and Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradients during the late Pleistocene, even though today rainfall variability is driven mostly by Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. However, not all Heinrich Events appear to result in lake expansions, most conspicuously during the global cold interval between 80 and 20 ka when the Altiplano and Amazon Basin were relatively arid.

  7. Effects of an experimental increase of temperature and drought on the photosynthetic performance of two ericaceous shrub species along a north-south European gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llorens, L.; Penuelas, J.; Beier, C.

    2004-01-01

    over 6-10 weeks during the growing season. We measured leaf gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and leaf carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C) during the growing seasons of 1999 and 2000. Leaf net photosynthetic rates clearly followed a gradient from northern to southern countries in agreement...... with the geographical gradient in water availability. Accordingly, there was a strong correlation between net photosynthetic rates and the accumulated rainfall over the growing season. Droughted plants showed lower leaf gas exchange rates than control plants in the four sites. Interestingly, although leaf...... photosynthetic rates decreased along the precipitation gradient and in response to drought treatment, droughted plants were able to maintain higher leaf photosynthetic rates than control plants in relation to the accumulated rainfall over the months previous to the measurements. Droughted plants also showed...

  8. Investigating recent trends in the rainfall structure: an overview across Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, M. I. P.; Coelho, M. F. E. S.; Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

    2009-09-01

    The spatial and temporal structure of rain, which typically exhibits extreme variability, is a core issue in studies that span a number of research areas, e.g. hydrology, hydraulics, environment, energy, economics, society. The interest in this process demands its comprehensive study and characterization at a variety of space- and time-scales. Local studies of the rainfall climate can play an important role as they may contribute to characterizing rainfall. In this work the study area is mainland Portugal. Mainland Portugal is located in the transitional region between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the sub-polar depression zones. The characteristics of global circulation (specifically the Atlantic origin of many synoptic disturbances such as seasonal movements of the Azores high pressure system) in the context of regional geography (e.g. latitude, orography, oceanic and continental influences) greatly influence the spatial distribution of precipitation over the territory. The climatic variables exhibit strong north-south and west-east gradients, and precipitation also exhibits strong seasonal variability. The dominant climate in mainland Portugal is mild Mediterranean with a warm, dry summer period. These characteristics are more pronounced in the south, where the climate is sometimes classified as semi-arid. These regions are also well known for their vulnerability to climate variability. Several studies have reported increased rainfall variability in recent years, largely on the basis of annual and monthly point rainfall data, and for different geographical locations across the Iberian Peninsula, including Portugal. The main aim of this work, which complements those trend studies, is to contribute to identifying and clarifying recent changes in rain variability in Portugal by analysing trends in the small-scale temporal behaviour and statistics of this process. Thus the analyses reported here concentrate on the statistics of short-term rainfall events. The

  9. Rainfall erosivity: An historical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainfall erosivity is the capability of rainfall to cause soil loss from hillslopes by water. Modern definitions of rainfall erosivity began with the development of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), where rainfall characteristics were statistically related to soil loss from thousands of plot...

  10. Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    It is well known that heavy rainfall occurs in the southwestern sector of the monsoon depressions due to strong convergence in that sector. By examining the rainfall distribution associated with the monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions) in one of the central Indian river basins, `Godavari', the author found that when ...

  11. Multifractals and the temporal structure of rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lima, de M.I.P.

    1998-01-01

    Rainfall is a highly non-linear hydrological process that exhibits wide variability over a broad range of time and space scales. The strongly irregular fluctuations of rain are difficult to capture instrumentally and to handle mathematically. The purpose of this work is to contribute to a

  12. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  13. Relating rainfall characteristics to cloud top temperatures at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher

    2017-04-01

    Extreme rainfall from mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poses a threat to lives and livelihoods of the West African population through increasingly frequent devastating flooding and loss of crops. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favouring their occurrence are still under debate. In the data-sparse West African region, rainfall radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) gives invaluable information on the distribution and frequency of extreme rainfall. The TRMM 2A25 product provides a 15-year dataset of snapshots of surface rainfall from 2-4 overpasses per day. Whilst this sampling captures the overall rainfall characteristics, it is neither long nor frequent enough to diagnose changes in MCS properties, which may be linked to the trend towards rainfall intensification in the region. On the other hand, Meteosat geostationary satellites provide long-term sub-hourly records of cloud top temperatures, raising the possibility of combining these with the high-quality rainfall data from TRMM. In this study, we relate TRMM 2A25 rainfall to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) cloud top temperatures, which are available from 2004 at 15 minutes intervals, to get a more detailed picture of the structure of intense rainfall within the life cycle of MCS. We find TRMM rainfall intensities within an MCS to be strongly coupled with MSG cloud top temperatures: the probability for extreme rainfall increases from power spectra at scales between 15 and 200km. From these, cloud sub-structures are identified as circular areas of respective scale with local power maxima in their centre. These areas are then mapped onto coinciding TRMM rainfall, allowing us to assign rainfall fields to sub-cloud features of different scales. We find a higher probability for extreme rainfall for cloud features above a scale of 30km, with features 100km contributing most to the number of extreme rainfall pixels. Over the average diurnal

  14. Analysis of the temporal structure of the daily rainfall observed at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    West African rainfall is characterized by a strong variability. In order to quantify the hydrological impacts of such variability, analysis of rainfall patterns is highly essential. This study aims to characterize the Sudanese rainfall, using a raingauge data set collected on the upper Oueme River catchment (Benin) between 1999 ...

  15. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  16. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2017-10-01

    Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric

  17. 100 years of Belgian rainfall: are there trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaes, G; Willems, P; Berlamont, J

    2002-01-01

    In 1999 the digitisation of old rainfall records of measurements at Uccle (Belgium) was completed, which resulted in a unique rainfall series of 100 years (period 1898-1997). This is an ideal opportunity to search for trends in the rainfall over the last century. Large variations in rainfall probability over the century have been observed. For small aggregation levels there is a small decrease in extreme rainfall events over the century. For large aggregation levels there is a more explicit increase in extreme rainfall. Because the rainfall on seasonal aggregation level is only slightly increased, the increase in extreme rainfall events for aggregation levels between a few days and a few months can only occur due to larger clustering. However, the final conclusion is that no significant trend can be observed. A pure random variation of the rainfall can cause equally large variations. This does not exclude a possible trend in flooding frequency, due to the strong increase in urbanisation over the last century.

  18. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  19. Irradiance gradients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, G.J.; Heckbert, P.S.; Technische Hogeschool Delft

    1992-04-01

    A new method for improving the accuracy of a diffuse interreflection calculation is introduced in a ray tracing context. The information from a hemispherical sampling of the luminous environment is interpreted in a new way to predict the change in irradiance as a function of position and surface orientation. The additional computation involved is modest and the benefit is substantial. An improved interpolation of irradiance resulting from the gradient calculation produces smoother, more accurate renderings. This result is achieved through better utilization of ray samples rather than additional samples or alternate sampling strategies. Thus, the technique is applicable to a variety of global illumination algorithms that use hemicubes or Monte Carlo sampling techniques

  20. Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa

    2018-02-01

    Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.

  1. Principal components of monsoon rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    BEDI, H. S.; BINDRA, M. M. S.

    2011-01-01

    Monsoon rainfall over India during the 120-day period from the beginning of June to the end of September exhibits interesting oscillations over the country. According to an analysis by Sub-bramayya (1968), there is a negative correlation in rainfall between the north-eastern and west-central parts of India. But his analysis does not indicate how much of the total variance of rainfall is explained by different rainfall patterns. We examined this aspect by expressing rainfall as a linear combin...

  2. Spatial Disaggregation of Areal Rainfall Using Two Different Artificial Neural Networks Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwon Kim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop artificial neural network (ANN models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP and Kohonen self-organizing feature map (KSOFM, for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall in the Wi-stream catchment, an International Hydrological Program (IHP representative catchment, in South Korea. A three-layer MLP model, using three training algorithms, was used to estimate areal rainfall. The Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm was found to be more sensitive to the number of hidden nodes than were the conjugate gradient and quickprop training algorithms using the MLP model. Results showed that the networks structures of 11-5-1 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 11-3-1 (Levenberg-Marquardt were the best for estimating areal rainfall using the MLP model. The networks structures of 1-5-11 (conjugate gradient and quickprop and 1-3-11 (Levenberg–Marquardt, which are the inverse networks for estimating areal rainfall using the best MLP model, were identified for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall using the MLP model. The KSOFM model was compared with the MLP model for spatial disaggregation of areal rainfall. The MLP and KSOFM models could disaggregate areal rainfall into individual point rainfall with spatial concepts.

  3. Tree ring reconstructed rainfall over the southern Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Lidio; Stahle, David; Villalba, Ricardo; Torbenson, Max; Feng, Song; Cook, Edward

    2017-07-01

    Moisture sensitive tree ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete have been developed from seasonally dry forests in the southern Amazon Basin and used to reconstruct wet season rainfall totals from 1799 to 2012, adding over 150 years of rainfall estimates to the short instrumental record for the region. The reconstruction is correlated with the same atmospheric variables that influence the instrumental measurements of wet season rainfall. Anticyclonic circulation over midlatitude South America promotes equatorward surges of cold and relatively dry extratropical air that converge with warm moist air to form deep convection and heavy rainfall over this sector of the southern Amazon Basin. Interesting droughts and pluvials are reconstructed during the preinstrumental nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the tree ring reconstruction suggests that the strong multidecadal variability in instrumental and reconstructed wet season rainfall after 1950 may have been unmatched since 1799.

  4. Interannual variability of rainfall characteristics over southwestern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randriamahefasoa, T. S. M.; Reason, C. J. C.

    2017-04-01

    The interannual variability of daily frequency of rainfall [>1 mm/day] and heavy rainfall [>30 mm/day] is studied for the southwestern region of Madagascar, which is relatively arid compared to the rest of the island. Attention is focused on the summer rainy season from December to March at four stations (Morondava, Ranohira, Toliara and Taolagnaro), whose daily rainfall data covering the period 1970-2000 were obtained from the Madagascar Meteorological Service. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a relatively strong correlation with wet day frequency at each station and, particularly, for Toliara in the extreme southwest. In terms of seasonal rainfall totals, most El Niño (La Niña) summers receive below (above) average amounts. An ENSO connection with heavy rainfall events was less clear. However, for heavy rainfall events, the associated atmospheric circulation displays a Southern Annular Mode-like pattern throughout the hemisphere. For ENSO years and the neutral seasons 1979/80, 1981/82 which had large anomalies in wet day frequency, regional atmospheric circulation patterns consisted of strong anomalies in low-level moisture convergence and uplift over and near southwestern Madagascar that made conditions correspondingly more or less favourable for rainfall. Dry (wet) summers in southern Madagascar were also associated with an equatorward (poleward) displacement of the ITCZ in the region.

  5. North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prem; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don't. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than -1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for

  6. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  7. The collaborative historical African rainfall model: description and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Verdin, Jim; Artan, Guleid; Husak, Greg; Senay, Gabriel; Gadain, Hussein; Magadazire, Tamuka

    2003-01-01

    In Africa the variability of rainfall in space and time is high, and the general availability of historical gauge data is low. This makes many food security and hydrologic preparedness activities difficult. In order to help overcome this limitation, we have created the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM). CHARM combines three sources of information: climatologically aided interpolated (CAI) rainfall grids (monthly/0.5° ), National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis precipitation fields (daily/1.875° ) and orographic enhancement estimates (daily/0.1° ). The first set of weights scales the daily reanalysis precipitation fields to match the gridded CAI monthly rainfall time series. This produces data with a daily/0.5° resolution. A diagnostic model of orographic precipitation, VDELB - based on the dot-product of the surface wind V and terrain gradient (DEL) and atmospheric buoyancy B - is then used to estimate the precipitation enhancement produced by complex terrain. Although the data are produced on 0.1° grids to facilitate integration with satellite-based rainfall estimates, the true resolution of the data will be less than this value, and varies with station density, topography, and precipitation dynamics. The CHARM is best suited, therefore, to applications that integrate rainfall or rainfall-driven model results over large regions.The CHARM time series is compared with three independent datasets: dekadal satellite-based rainfall estimates across the continent, dekadal interpolated gauge data in Mali, and daily interpolated gauge data in western Kenya. These comparisons suggest reasonable accuracies (standard errors of about half a standard deviation) when data are aggregated to regional scales, even at daily time steps. Thus constrained, numerical weather prediction precipitation fields do a reasonable job of representing large-scale diurnal variations. Published in 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  9. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  10. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R......-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century....... Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months...

  11. Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

    2013-04-01

    The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the

  12. Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

  13. Wheat yield vulnerability: relation to rainfall and suggestions for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Tafoughalti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Wheat production is of paramount importance in the region of Meknes, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions. It is the dominant cereal, the greater proportion being the soft type. During the past few decades, rainfall flaws have caused a number of cases of droughts. These flaws have seriously affecting wheat production. The main objective of this study is the assessment of rainfall variability at monthly, seasonal and annual scales and to determine their impact on wheat yields. To reduce this impact we suggested some mechanisms of adaptation. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model to evaluate the impact of rainfall on wheat yields. Data analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that soft wheat and hard wheat are strongly correlated with the period of January to March than with the whole growing-season. While they are adversely correlated with the mid-spring. This investigation concluded that synchronizing appropriate adaptation with the period of January to March was crucial to achieving success yield of wheat.

  14. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.

    2012-04-01

    resulted in landslides must be considered in the analysis. The result is a value of landslide probability (from 0 to 1) for each combination of the selected rainfall variables. The method has been applied to the historical dataset of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy). The dataset contains more than 9000 landslide records, for 4141 of which the date of occurrence is reported with a daily accuracy. Among these, 2741 landslides are characterized by a well-defined triggering rainfall (objectively identifiable in terms of duration and intensity) suitable for the analysis. Rainfall that non resulted in landslides account for more than 250000 events. The results clearly show that landslide triggering in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (duration, intensity, total rainfall) while antecedent rainfall seem to be less important. Moreover, the lines of equal Bayes probability in the rainfall duration- intensity chart are roughly parallel to the regional threshold proposed by Guzzetti et al. (2007), which in our case indicates a landslide probability of about 0.1. The abrupt increase of landslide probability in the duration-intensity plane indicates a radical change of state of the system, proving the existence of a real physical threshold.

  15. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  16. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  17. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  18. Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haarsma, Reindert J.; Selten, Frank M.; Weber, Suzanne L.; Kliphuis, Michael

    2005-09-01

    The NCEP/NCAR re-analyses as well as ensemble integrations with an atmospheric GCM indicate that interannual variations in Sahel rainfall are related to variations in the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Sahara. In turn the MSLP variations are related to the global distribution of surface air temperature (SAT). An increase in SAT over the Sahara, relative to the surrounding oceans, decreases the MSLP over the Sahara, thereby increasing the Sahel rainfall. We hypothesize that through this mechanism greenhouse warming will cause an increase in Sahel rainfall, because the warming is expected to be more prominent over the summer continents than over the oceans. This has been confirmed using an ensemble of 62 coupled model runs forced with a business as usual scenario. The ensemble mean increase in Sahel rainfall between 1980 and 2080 is about 1-2 mm day-1 (25-50%) during July-September, thereby strongly reducing the probability of prolonged droughts.

  19. Karoo-fynbos biomass along an elevational gradient in the western Cape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Rutherford

    1978-12-01

    Full Text Available A short characterization of the vegetational gradient from two basic physiognomic forms of fynbos, through Renosterbosveld to arid Karoo vegetation of the south-western Cape, is given with reference to possible vegetational analogues within similar gradients in winter-rainfall areas elsewhere. Description is limited to some aspects affecting biomass and its measurement, as well as to consideration of community stability needed for valid comparison of community biomass. Live individuals, including single dominant species, all other shrubs, graminoids and other herbaceous species as well as dead individuals were harvested separately in each major community type within an elevational gradient corresponding to the vegetational gradient described. Greatest biomass (14311 kg ha-1 was found in a summit restionaceous community, while lowest biomass (7564 kg ha-1 was found in a low-lying succulent Karoo community. There was an inverse relationship between elevation and percentage dead material mass and a strongly positive relationship between elevation and percentage biomass of the graminoid group. Total biomass values appear to be in keeping with available data for analogue communities in different Mediterranean climate areas, although distinct differences sometimes occur in the relative biomass contributions of component groups.

  20. An inter-comparison of model-simulated east–west climate gradients ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines how the east–west gradient of climate over South Africa is represented in terms of mean rainfall, tropospheric humidity and circulation, and surface latent heat flux in the satellite era 1980-2001. Inter-comparisons of NCEP2 reanalysis and GPCP satellite-gauge merged rainfall with coupled general ...

  1. The consecutive dry days to trigger rainfall over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. H.

    2018-01-01

    In order to resolve contradictions in addressing a soil moisture-precipitation feedback mechanism over West Africa and to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, we first validated various data sets (SMOS satellite soil moisture observations, NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models) with the Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine (AMMA) field campaign data. Based on this analysis, it was suggested that biases of data sets might cause contradictions in studying mechanisms. Thus, by taking into account uncertainties in data, it was found that the approach of consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative comparison of time-series) showed consistency across various data sets, while the direct comparison approach for soil moisture state and rainfall did not. Thus, it was discussed that it may be difficult to directly relate rain with soil moisture as the absolute value, however, it may be reasonable to compare a temporal progress of the variables. Based upon the results consistently showing a positive relationship between the consecutive dry days and rainfall, this study supports a negative feedback often neglected by climate model structure. This approach is less sensitive to interpretation errors arising from systematic errors in data sets, as this measures a temporal gradient of soil moisture state.

  2. The spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in south-eastern Queensland

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Louise

    2016-01-01

    Cluster analysis of five upper-air variables from Brisbane Airport has identified eight weather regimes associated with rainfall in the south-eastern Queensland. These eight weather regimes are found to clearly distinguish the rain-bearing systems; four are associated with essentially dry conditions and four with wet conditions. The low-rainfall regimes were all linked to synoptic patterns with low moisture flux and weak surface pressure gradients. The rain-bearing regimes tend to have ...

  3. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  4. Determining the precipitable water vapor thresholds under different rainfall strengths in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Ta-Kang; Shih, Hsuan-Chang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Choy, Suelynn; Chen, Chieh-Hung; Hong, Jing-Shan

    2018-02-01

    Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) plays an important role for weather forecasting. It is helpful in evaluating the changes of the weather system via observing the distribution of water vapor. The ability of calculating PWV from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is useful to understand the special weather phenomenon. In this study, 95 ground-based GPS and rainfall stations in Taiwan were utilized from 2006 to 2012 to analyze the relationship between PWV and rainfall. The PWV data were classified into four classes (no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall), and the vertical gradients of the PWV were obtained and the variations of the PWV were analyzed. The results indicated that as the GPS elevation increased every 100 m, the PWV values decreased by 9.5 mm, 11.0 mm, 12.2 mm and 12.3 mm during the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. After applying correction using the vertical gradients mentioned above, the average PWV thresholds were 41.8 mm, 52.9 mm, 62.5 mm and 64.4 mm under the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. This study offers another type of empirical threshold to assist the rainfall prediction and can be used to distinguish the rainfall features between different areas in Taiwan.

  5. Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Su-Hong; Gong Yan-Chun; Huang Yan-Hua; Wu Cheng-Guo; Feng Tai-Chen; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2014-01-01

    A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971–2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  6. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Coughlan de Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  7. The use of degradation gradients for the assessment and ecological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The use of degradation gradients for the assessment and ecological interpretation of range condition. Guach H.G., Bosch O.J.H., Gauch H.G.. Abstract. Multivariate procedures were used to subdivide the Southern African climatic climax grasslands of the 700-800 mm rainfall zone into relatively homogeneous grazing areas.

  8. Bayesian spatiotemporal interpolation of rainfall in the Central Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa-Moreno, Juan; Keir, Greg; McIntyre, Neil

    2016-04-01

    Water availability in the populous and economically significant Central Chilean region is governed by complex interactions between precipitation, temperature, snow and glacier melt, and streamflow. Streamflow prediction at daily time scales depends strongly on accurate estimations of precipitation in this predominantly dry region, particularly during the winter period. This can be difficult as gauged rainfall records are scarce, especially in the higher elevation regions of the Chilean Andes, and topographic influences on rainfall are not well understood. Remotely sensed precipitation and topographic products can be used to construct spatiotemporal multivariate regression models to estimate rainfall at ungauged locations. However, classical estimation methods such as kriging cannot easily accommodate the complicated statistical features of the data, including many 'no rainfall' observations, as well as non-normality, non-stationarity, and temporal autocorrelation. We use a separable space-time model to predict rainfall using the R-INLA package for computationally efficient Bayesian inference, using the gridded CHIRPS satellite-based rainfall dataset and digital elevation models as covariates. We jointly model both the probability of rainfall occurrence on a given day (using a binomial likelihood) as well as amount (using a gamma likelihood or similar). Correlation in space and time is modelled using a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with a Matérn spatial covariance function which can evolve over time according to an autoregressive model if desired. It is possible to evaluate the GMRF at relatively coarse temporal resolution to speed up computations, but still produce daily rainfall predictions. We describe the process of model selection and inference using an information criterion approach, which we use to objectively select from competing models with various combinations of temporal smoothing, likelihoods, and autoregressive model orders.

  9. Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... based on 'naiveBayes classifier' is applied. This is a simple probabilistic classifier based on applying 'Bayes' theoremwith strong (naive) independent assumptions. For a 9-month period, the ability of SEVIRI to classifythe rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria.

  10. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coughlan, E.R.; Stephens, E.; Bischiniotis, K.; van Aalst, M.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Mason, S.; Nissan, H.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-01-01

    In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale

  11. Impacts of climate change on rainfall, seasonal flooding, and evapotranspiration in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Mosimanyana, E.; Gondwe, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Delta is known for its unique annual flood pulse, whereby the wetland and its neighboring river systems are inundated with waters that travel nearly 1000 km before reaching this subtropical, semi-arid destination. The livelihoods of northern Botswana's ecosystems and human populations rely on these floods to supplement the short and variable rainy season, which in many years is too minimal to ameliorate regional drought. However, anthropogenic climate change is reducing the amount of water that reaches the delta by increasing evaporation from soils and rivers, and transpiration by vegetation, during its long transit to Botswana. Future changes in rainfall patterns, extreme events, and increased upstream water use could exacerbate this water stress. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to assess the impacts of climate change on the delta because few data exist to constrain its complex climatic and seasonal water cycling regimes. This study presents a novel characterization of the water cycle in and around the Okavango Delta based on a survey of free-flowing surface waters, stagnant pools, precipitation, and groundwater carried out during the 2016 rainy and early-flood season. We use stable isotope and water quality data to assess local moisture sources, transport, evaporation, wetland flushing, and land-atmosphere exchanges, all of which are subject to change under global warming. We find a strong evaporation gradient and a progressive flushing of stagnant swamp waters along the northeastern and northwestern channels of the Delta. The evaporation gradient is more limited in nearby rivers with more limited wetlands. We contrast results with a survey of the Delta performed in the 1970's in order to assess changes over the past 40 years. Since some of these changes may arise from rainfall supply, we also present new analysis of rainfall moisture

  12. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

    2003-04-01

    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  13. Late Quaternary moisture export across Central America and to Greenland: evidence for tropical rainfall variability from Costa Rican stalagmites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, Matthew S.; Johnson, Leah; Asmerom, Yemane; Burns, Stephen J.; Polyak, Victor; Patterson, William P.; Burt, Lindsay; Azouz, April

    2009-12-01

    We present a high-resolution terrestrial archive of Central American rainfall over the period 100-24 and 8.1-6.5 ka, based on δ 18O time series from U-series dated stalagmites collected from a cave on the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica. Our results indicate substantial δ 18O variability on millennial to orbital time scales that is interpreted to reflect rainfall variations over the cave site. Correlations with other paleoclimate proxy records suggest that the rainfall variations are forced by sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in a fashion analogous to the modern climate cycle. Higher rainfall is associated with periods of a warm tropical North Atlantic Ocean and large SST gradients between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Rainfall variability is likely linked to the intensity and/or latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Periods of higher rainfall in Costa Rica are also associated with an enhanced sea surface salinity gradient on either side of the isthmus, suggesting greater freshwater export from the Atlantic Basin when the ITCZ is stronger and/or in a more northerly position. Further, wet periods in Central America coincide with high deuterium excess values in Greenland ice, suggesting a direct link between low latitude SSTs, tropical rainfall, and moisture delivery to Greenland. Our results indicate that a stronger tropical hydrological cycle during warm periods and large inter-ocean SST gradients enhanced the delivery of low latitude moisture to Greenland.

  14. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  15. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  16. Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    built for each studied catchment. The proposed methodology is applied on three Mediterranean catchments often submitted to flash floods. The new forecasting method as well as the Flash Flood Guidance method (uniform rainfall threshold) are tested on 25 flash floods events that had occurred on those catchments. Results show a significant impact of rainfall spatial variability. Indeed, it appears that the uniform rainfall threshold (FFG threshold) always overestimates the observed rainfall threshold. The difference between the FFG threshold and the proposed threshold ranges from 8% to 30%. The proposed methodology allows the calculation of a threshold more representative of the observed one. However, results strongly depend on the related event duration and on the catchment properties. For instance, the impact of the rainfall spatial variability seems to be correlated with the catchment size. According to these results, it seems to be interesting to introduce information on the catchment properties in the threshold calculation. Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003. River Forecast Center (RFC) Development Management Team. Final Report. Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD), Silver Spring, Mary-land. Le Lay, M. and Saulnier, G.-M., 2007. Exploring the signature of climate and landscape spatial variabilities in flash flood events: Case of the 8-9 September 2002 Cévennes-Vivarais catastrophic event. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(L13401), doi:10.1029/2007GL029746. Roux, H., Labat, D., Garambois, P.-A., Maubourguet, M.-M., Chorda, J. and Dartus, D., 2011. A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. J1 - NHESS, 11(9), 2567-2582. Zoccatelli, D., Borga, M., Zanon, F., Antonescu, B. and Stancalie, G., 2010. Which rainfall spatial information for flash flood response modelling? A numerical investigation based on data from the Carpathian range, Romania. Journal of Hydrology, 394(1-2), 148-161.

  17. The influence of seasonal rainfall upon Sahel vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proud, Simon Richard; Rasmussen, Laura Vang

    2011-01-01

    include changes in total yearly rainfall, land-use change and migration. But these factors are not fully explanatory. This study addresses other possible factors for variation in vegetation patterns through the analysis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) produced by satellite sensors. We...... focus on precipitation, but instead of looking at the total yearly amount of rainfall, the intra-annual variation is examined. Here we show that plant growth is strongly correlated with the number and frequency of days within the rainy season upon which there is no rainfall. Furthermore, we find...... that if the start of the growing season, or the period in which the peak growth of vegetation occurs, is especially dry then plant growth may be stunted throughout the remainder of the season. These results enable better understanding of climate dynamics in the Sahel and allow more accurate forecasting of crop...

  18. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  19. The effects of rainfall regimes and terracing on runoff and erosion in the Three Gorges area, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qin-Xue; Wu, Pan; Dai, Jun-Feng; Wang, Tian-Wei; Li, Zhao-Xia; Cai, Chong-Fa; Shi, Zhi-Hua

    2018-04-01

    Changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and are expected to become more pronounced in future decades. These changes are also likely to be accompanied by changes in crop management practices. The main purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and soil loss in relation to rainfall regimes and terracing in the Three Gorges area, China. Based on 10 years of field observation and k-mean clusters, 101 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime I was the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime III consisted of events with low intensity, long duration, and high rainfall amount. Rainfall regime II was the aggregation of events of high intensity and amount, and less frequent occurrence. The results showed that event runoff coefficients were not significantly different among rainfall regimes. However, the average soil erosion rates in rainfall regimes I and II were significantly higher than that in regime III. The average erosion rates under rainfall regimes I, II, and III were 21.6, 39.7, and 9.8 g m -2 , respectively. The effect of rainfall regime on soil erosion also was changed by terracing. On unterraced cropland, soil erosion rate in rainfall regime I is significantly higher than that in regime III. However, the situation did not exist in unterraced orchard. Terracing significantly reduced runoff and soil erosion, and compensated the effects of rainfall regime on soil erosion, which indicated that runoff and erosion in terraced system may be little influenced by climate change. Based on these results, it was suggested more attention should be paid to the timing of rainfall events in relation to crop development and the high erosion on unterraced citrus orchard to control soil erosion in this area.

  20. Impact of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: an assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Manish K.; Kucharski, Fred

    2017-04-01

    The present study evaluates the fidelity of 32 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in simulating the observed teleconnection of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Approximately two-thirds of the models show well-defined spatial pattern of IPO over the Pacific basin and most amongst these capture the IPO-ISMR teleconnection. In general, the models that fail to reproduce the IPO-ISMR teleconnection are the ones that are also showing a poor spatial pattern of IPO, irrespective of the extent to which they reproduce the precipitation climatology and seasonal cycle. The results reveal a strong relationship between the quality of reproducing the IPO pattern and the IPO-ISMR teleconnection in the models, in particular with respect to the tropical-extratropical as well as the equatorial Pacific-Indian Ocean sea surface temperature gradients during IPO phases. Furthermore, the CMIP5 models that are capable of reproducing the IPO-ISMR teleconnection also reasonably simulate the atmospheric circulation as well as the convergence/divergence patterns associated with the IPO. Thus, for the better understanding of decadal-to-multidecadal variability and to improve decadal prediction of rainfall over India it is therefore vital that models should simulate the IPO skillfully.

  1. Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

  2. Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

    2018-04-01

    Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

  3. Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Bader, Jürgen; Matei, Daniela

    2015-01-21

    Future projections of the Sahel rainfall are highly uncertain, with different climate models showing widely differing rainfall trends. Moreover, the twentieth-century cross-model consensus linking Sahel rainfall to tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is no longer applicable in the twenty-first century. Here we show that the diverse future Northern Hemisphere differential warming between extratropical and tropical SSTs can explain the discrepancy in the projected Sahel rainfall. The relationship between SST and Sahel rainfall that holds for the twentieth-century persists into the twenty-first century when the differential SST warming is taken into account. A suite of SST-sensitivity experiments confirms that strong Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming induces a significant increase in Sahel rainfall, which can predominate over the drying impact of tropical SST warming. These results indicate that a trustworthy projection of Sahel rainfall requires the estimation of the most likely future Northern-hemispheric differential warming.

  4. Increased rainfall variability and N addition accelerate litter decomposition in a restored prairie.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Michael J

    2016-03-01

    Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and projected increases in rainfall variability (the frequency of drought and heavy rainfall events) are expected to strongly influence ecosystem processes such as litter decomposition. However, how these two global change factors interact to influence litter decomposition is largely unknown. I examined how increased rainfall variability and nitrogen addition affected mass and nitrogen loss of litter from two tallgrass prairie species, Schizachyrium scoparium and Solidago canadensis, and isolated the effects of each during plant growth and during litter decomposition. I increased rainfall variability by consolidating ambient rainfall into larger events and simulated chronic nitrogen deposition using a slow-release urea fertilizer. S. scoparium litter decay was more strongly regulated by the treatments applied during plant growth than by those applied during decomposition. During plant growth, increased rainfall variability resulted in S. scoparium litter that subsequently decomposed more slowly and immobilized more nitrogen than litter grown under ambient conditions, whereas nitrogen addition during plant growth accelerated subsequent mass loss of S. scoparium litter. In contrast, S. canadensis litter mass and N losses were enhanced under either N addition or increased rainfall variability both during plant growth and during decomposition. These results suggest that ongoing changes in rainfall variability and nitrogen availability are accelerating nutrient cycling in tallgrass prairies through their combined effects on litter quality, environmental conditions, and plant community composition.

  5. Sediment output from a post-mining catchment - Centennial impacts using stochastically generated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Verdon-Kidd, D.; Lowry, J. B. C.

    2017-01-01

    Computer based landscape evolution models can provide insight into both erosion rates and processes (i.e. sheetwash, rill, gully erosion). One important data requirement of these models is long term, high quality, high-temporal resolution rainfall data (given that the physical nature of the erosion process is strongly related to rainfall). However, in many cases such data is limited - data is often short, incomplete or not of a sufficient temporal resolution. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the sensitivity of modelled erosion rates to small changes in rainfall input. To achieve this we firstly assess the existing rainfall data from an established weather station and secondly, stochastically generate rainfall time series based on the longest and most reliable rainfall data. We then test the sensitivity of different rainfall sequences on sediment output using a well-tested landscape evolution and sediment transport model (CAESAR-Lisflood) over a simulated period of 100 y on a proposed rehabilitated mine landform. It was found that each rainfall scenario produces a unique pattern of erosion (i.e. the location and extent of the gullies is variable). Further, each rainfall scenario produces a unique pattern of sediment output that suggests non-linear processes. Importantly, this is the first time stochastically generated rainfall has been employed in landform evolution modeling and provides a statistical approach to quantify sediment transport and landform evolution. The method demonstrates a risk based approach and allows rainfall, runoff and sediment transport studies to be conducted in data poor environments. The findings clearly demonstrate that rainfall variability can greatly affect sediment transport and form of erosion as well as landscape evolution. This information is of particular importance for the design and testing of rehabilitated landscape systems such as post-mining landscapes.

  6. Vertebrate pressure-gradient receivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

    2011-01-01

    The eardrums of all terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods) are connected through Eustachian tubes or interaural canals. In some of the animals, these connections create pressure-gradient directionality, an enhanced directionality by interaction of sound arriving at both sides of the eardrum and stro......The eardrums of all terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods) are connected through Eustachian tubes or interaural canals. In some of the animals, these connections create pressure-gradient directionality, an enhanced directionality by interaction of sound arriving at both sides of the eardrum....... Recent vertebrates form a continuum from perfect interaural transmission (0 dB in a certain frequency band) and pronounced eardrum directionality (30-40 dB) in the lizards, over somewhat attenuated transmission and limited directionality in birds and frogs, to the strongly attenuated interaural...

  7. Applications of high resolution rainfall radar data to quantify water temperature dynamics in urban catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David

    2017-04-01

    Studies relating rainfall events to river water quality are frequently hindered by the lack of high resolution rainfall data. Local studies are particularly vulnerable due to the spatial variability of precipitation, whilst studies in urban environments require precipitation data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The use of point-source data makes identifying causal effects of storms on water quality problematic and can lead to erroneous interpretations. High spatial and temporal resolution rainfall radar data offers great potential to address these issues. Here we use rainfall radar data with a 1km spatial resolution and 5 minute temporal resolution sourced from the UK Met Office Nimrod system to study the effects of storm events on water temperature (WTemp) in Birmingham, UK. 28 WTemp loggers were placed over 3 catchments on a rural-urban land use gradient to identify trends in WTemp during extreme events within urban environments. Using GIS, the catchment associated with each logger was estimated, and 5 min. rainfall totals and intensities were produced for each sub-catchment. Comparisons of rainfall radar data to meteorological stations in the same grid cell revealed the high accuracy of rainfall radar data in our catchments (urban catchment generally received more rainfall, with this effect greatest in the highest intensity storms, suggesting the possibility of urban heat island effects on precipitation dynamics within the catchment. Rainfall radar data provided more accurate sub-catchment rainfall totals allowing better modelled estimates of storm flow, whilst spatial fluctuations in both discharge and WTemp can be simply related to precipitation intensity. Storm flow inputs for each sub-catchment were estimated and linked to changes in WTemp. WTemp showed substantial fluctuations (>1 °C) over short durations (impact of storm flow on WTemp could be quantified. We are currently using the radar data to derive thresholds for rainfall amount and

  8. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    the Palghat gap, which is about 24kms in length. The south-west monsoon current, which brings in most of the annual rainfall, gets a forced ascent at the Ghats and the windward slopes experience very heavy rainfall. However, rainfall is not uniformly distributed on the windward slopes and there are pockets of very heavy ...

  9. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  10. Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

    1999-01-01

    Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific

  11. North Pacific Westerly Jet Influence of the Winter Hawaii Rainfall in the last 21,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.

    2017-12-01

    Hawaii rainfall has a strong seasonality which has more rainfall during the winter than summer. Part of the winter rainfall is from extratropical weather disturbances. Kona lows (KL) are important contributors to the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. KL activity is found to have a strong relationship with the North Pacific climate variability. The goal of the research is to test the hypothesis that changes in the strength and position of the upper level zonal wind jet is a key driver for regional rainfall changes. The main objectives are (1) to identify the relationship between North Pacific westerly jet strength and KL activity in present day climate, (2) to test the stability of this relationship under past climatic conditions, and (3) to explore the teleconnection between Hawaii and North America. For the present-day analysis of the westerly jet, the zonal wind at 250hPa is used from ERA-interim data from 1979-2014. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For the paleoclimatic study, the transient TraCE-21ka simulation is used for the zonal wind - Hawaii rainfall analysis. The results of present-day analysis show that when the jet extends farther into the eastern Pacific sector the Kona Low activity is reduced, less winter rainfall is observed over Hawaii and more rainfall over the California region. The jet position-rainfall relationship was investigated within the TrACE-21 simulation. For the TraCE-21ka dataset, there is an increasing rainfall trend from 21kBP to 14kBP; this period coincides with a gradual decrease in the strength of the westerly wind jet. The results show that the westerly jet strength has a strong influence of the Kona Low activity and the rainfall over Hawaii both in the present and the past.

  12. A multi-scale analysis of Namibian rainfall over the recent decade – comparing TMPA satellite estimates and ground observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefei Lu

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The agreement between ground and satellite rainfall data was generally good at annual/monthly scales but large variations were observed at the daily scale. Results showed a spatial variability of rainfall trends across the rainfall gradient. We observed significant changes in frequency along with insignificant changes in intensity and no changes in total amount for the driest location, but no changes in any of the rainfall parameters were observed for the three wetter locations. The results also showed increased rainfall variability for the driest location. This study provided a useful approach of using TMPA data associated with trend analysis to extend the data record for ecohydrological studies for similar data scarce conditions. The results of this study will also help constrain IPCC predictions in this region.

  13. Intensive rainfall recharges tropical groundwaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jasechko, Scott; Taylor, Richard G

    2015-01-01

    Dependence upon groundwater to meet rising agricultural and domestic water needs is expected to increase substantially across the tropics where, by 2050, over half of the world’s population is projected to live. Rare, long-term groundwater-level records in the tropics indicate that groundwater recharge occurs disproportionately from heavy rainfalls exceeding a threshold. The ubiquity of this bias in tropical groundwater recharge to intensive precipitation is, however, unknown. By relating available long-term records of stable-isotope ratios of O and H in tropical precipitation (15 sites) to those of local groundwater, we reveal that groundwater recharge in the tropics is near-uniformly (14/15 sites) biased to intensive monthly rainfall, commonly exceeding the ∼70th intensity decile. Our results suggest that the intensification of precipitation brought about by global warming favours groundwater replenishment in the tropics. Nevertheless, the processes that transmit intensive rainfall to groundwater systems and enhance the resilience of tropical groundwater storage in a warming world, remain unclear. (letter)

  14. Assessing spatio-temporal rainfall variability in a tropical mountain area (Ethiopia) using NOAA's rainfall estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob, Miro; Frankl, Amaury; Haile, Mitiku; Zwertvaegher, Ann; Nyssen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal and interannual variation in rainfall can cause massive economic loss for farmers and pastoralists, not only because of deficient total rainfall amounts but also because of long dry spells within the rainy season. The semi-arid to sub-humid mountain climate of the North Ethiopian Highlands is especially vulnerable to rainfall anomalies. In this article, spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are analysed on a regional scale in the North Ethiopian Highlands using satellite-derived rainfall...

  15. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and ...

  16. Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Saatchi, Sassan

    2013-01-01

    During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950-2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998-2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999-2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than -600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts.

  17. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  18. Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

  19. Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Marisa C; Kujbida, Gregory; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Fisman, David N; Tien, Joseph H

    2013-12-01

    Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. A strong relationship between rainfall and cholera was found for all spatial scales and locations examined. Increased rainfall was significantly correlated with increased cholera incidence 4-7 days later. Forcing the dynamic models with rainfall data resulted in good fits to the cholera case data, and rainfall-based predictions from the dynamic models closely matched observed cholera cases. These models provide a tool for planning and managing the epidemic as it continues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Coastal microbial mat diversity along a natural salinity gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henk Bolhuis

    Full Text Available The North Sea coast of the Dutch barrier island of Schiermonnikoog is covered by microbial mats that initiate a succession of plant communities that eventually results in the development of a densely vegetated salt marsh. The North Sea beach has a natural elevation running from the low water mark to the dunes resulting in gradients of environmental factors perpendicular to the beach. These gradients are due to the input of seawater at the low water mark and of freshwater from upwelling groundwater at the dunes and rainfall. The result is a natural and dynamic salinity gradient depending on the tide, rainfall and wind. We studied the microbial community composition in thirty three samples taken every ten meters along this natural salinity gradient by using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE of rRNA gene fragments. We looked at representatives from each Domain of life (Bacteria, Archaea and Eukarya and with a particular emphasis on Cyanobacteria. Analysis of the DGGE fingerprints together with pigment composition revealed three distinct microbial mat communities, a marine community dominated by diatoms as primary producers, an intermediate brackish community dominated by Cyanobacteria as primary producers and a freshwater community with Cyanobacteria and freshwater green algae.

  1. Polarimetric rainfall retrieval from a C-Band weather radar in a tropical environment (The Philippines)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisologo, I.; Vulpiani, G.; Abon, C. C.; David, C. P. C.; Bronstert, A.; Heistermann, Maik

    2014-11-01

    We evaluated the potential of polarimetric rainfall retrieval methods for the Tagaytay C-Band weather radar in the Philippines. For this purpose, we combined a method for fuzzy echo classification, an approach to extract and reconstruct the differential propagation phase, Φ DP , and a polarimetric self-consistency approach to calibrate horizontal and differential reflectivity. The reconstructed Φ DP was used to estimate path-integrated attenuation and to retrieve the specific differential phase, K DP . All related algorithms were transparently implemented in the Open Source radar processing software wradlib. Rainfall was then estimated from different variables: from re-calibrated reflectivity, from re-calibrated reflectivity that has been corrected for path-integrated attenuation, from the specific differential phase, and from a combination of reflectivity and specific differential phase. As an additional benchmark, rainfall was estimated by interpolating the rainfall observed by rain gauges. We evaluated the rainfall products for daily and hourly accumulations. For this purpose, we used observations of 16 rain gauges from a five-month period in the 2012 wet season. It turned out that the retrieval of rainfall from K DP substantially improved the rainfall estimation at both daily and hourly time scales. The measurement of reflectivity apparently was impaired by severe miscalibration while K DP was immune to such effects. Daily accumulations of rainfall retrieved from K DP showed a very low estimation bias and small random errors. Random scatter was, though, strongly present in hourly accumulations.

  2. Recurrent daily rainfall patterns over South Africa and associated dynamics during the core of the austral summer

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cretat, J

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available . Amongst them, one cluster looks most like the rainfall and circulation mean picture. Another one, representing 37% of the days, describes strong negative rainfall anomalies over South Africa resulting from a regional barotropic trough-ridge-trough wave...

  3. Effects of rainfall patterns on runoff and soil erosion in field plots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Ayob Mohamadi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion processes during a storm are strongly affected by intra-storm variations in rainfall characteristics. Four storm patterns, each with a different rainfall intensity variation were separated. The storm patterns were: (1 increasing rainfall intensity (2 increasing then decreasing intensity (3 decreasing intensity (4 decreasing then increasing intensity. After each erosive rainfall (12 events, Runoff and suspended sediment samples were collected in each plot׳s tank which is located on hillslopes of the basin of Khamsan. Main storm characteristics and soil losses were plotted and equation of the line of best fit were selected. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to determine response of runoff and soil erosion to storm patterns. Results showed that in lower rainfall intensities a linear function fits the relationship between soil loss and rainfall intensity whereas this function tends to be non-linear at higher intensities. Also a strong non-linear relationship was found between different quartiles of storm and soil loss. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences in total runoff, soil loss and sediment concentration across four storm patterns (P<0.001 but no differences in the runoff coefficient. In particular, storms with increasing rainfall intensity yielded highest quantities of eroded sediments, total runoff and highest sediment concentrations followed by increasing then decreasing, decreasing then increasing and decreasing intensity, respectively.

  4. Travelling gradient thermocouple calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broomfield, G.H.

    1975-01-01

    A short discussion of the origins of the thermocouple EMF is used to re-introduce the idea that the Peltier and Thompson effects are indistinguishable from one another. Thermocouples may be viewed as devices which generate an EMF at junctions or as integrators of EMF's developed in thermal gradients. The thermal gradient view is considered the more appropriate, because of its better accord with theory and behaviour, the correct approach to calibration, and investigation of service effects is immediately obvious. Inhomogeneities arise in thermocouples during manufacture and in service. The results of travelling gradient measurements are used to show that such effects are revealed with a resolution which depends on the length of the gradient although they may be masked during simple immersion calibration. Proposed tests on thermocouples irradiated in a nuclear reactor are discussed

  5. Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Chung, Christine; Moise, Aurel F.; Hope, Pandora; Young, Griffith; Zhao, Mei

    2016-10-01

    Australia experienced record high rainfall in austral spring 2010, which has previously been attributed to the concurrence of a strong La Niña event and a strong positive excursion of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). In this study, we examine the role of the sea surface temperature (SST) trend over the recent 50 years, which has large warming over the tropical Indian, western Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, in driving the extraordinary climate conditions of spring 2010, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled model seasonal forecast system. Four forecast sensitivity experiments were designed by using randomly chosen atmospheric initial conditions but with: (1) observed ocean initial conditions for 1 September 2010; (2) the same ocean initial conditions except the linear temperature trend over the period 1960-2010 was removed; (3) ocean initial conditions in which the trend was added to the climatological ocean state for 1 September; and (4) climatological ocean conditions only. A synergistic response to the La Niña SST anomalies and the SST trend was detected: the tropical rainfall anomalies were amplified over the western side of the Indo-Pacific warm-pool, which led to a significant increase of tropical upper tropospheric warming and a resultant increase of meridional temperature gradient in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. Consequently, the SH eddy-driven jet was shifted poleward (i.e. positive phase of the SAM), which induced rainfall over subtropical Australia. Our findings highlight that the interaction of interannual anomalies and the trend may play an important role in the amplification of extreme events.

  6. Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

    2018-03-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

  7. Temporal variation in bird and resource abundance across an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Patrick J.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Turner, Kathryn; McClure, Katherine; Goodall, Katherine; Henneman, Carlene; Spiegel, Caleb; Lebrun, Jaymi; Tweed, Erik; Samuel, Michael

    2011-01-01

    We documented patterns of nectar availability and nectarivorous bird abundance over ~3 years at nine study sites across an 1,800-m elevational gradient on Hawaii Island to investigate the relationship between resource variation and bird abundance. Flower density (flowers ha-1) and nectar energy content were measured across the gradient for the monodominant 'Ōhi'a (Metrosideros polymorpha). Four nectarivorous bird species were captured monthly in mist nets and surveyed quarterly with point-transect distance sampling at each site to examine patterns of density and relative abundance. Flowering peaks were associated with season but not rainfall or elevation. Bird densities peaked in the winter and spring of each year at high elevations, but patterns were less clear at middle and low elevations. Variability in bird abundance was generally best modeled as a function of elevation, season, and flower density, but the strength of the latter effect varied with species. The low elevations had the greatest density of flowers but contained far fewer individuals of the two most strongly nectarivorous species. There is little evidence of large-scale altitudinal movement of birds in response to 'Ōhi'a flowering peaks. The loose relationship between nectar and bird abundance may be explained by a number of potential mechanisms, including (1) demographic constraints to movement; (2) nonlimiting nectar resources; and (3) the presence of an "ecological trap," whereby birds are attracted by the high resource abundance of, but suffer increased mortality at, middle and low elevations as a result of disease.

  8. Contrasting response of rainfall extremes to increase in surface air and dewpoint temperatures at urban locations in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Haider; Mishra, Vimal

    2017-04-27

    Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the warming climate. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship provides a physical basis to understand the sensitivity of rainfall extremes in response to warming, however, relationships between rainfall extremes and air temperature over tropical regions remain uncertain. Here, using station based observations and remotely sensed rainfall, we show that at a majority of urban locations, rainfall extremes show a negative scaling relationship against surface air temperature (SAT) in India. The negative relationship between rainfall extremes and SAT in India can be attributed to cooling (SAT) due to the monsoon season rain events in India, suggesting that SAT alone is not a good predictor of rainfall extremes in India. In contrast, a strong (higher than C-C rate) positive relationship between rainfall extremes and dew point (DPT) and tropospheric temperature (T850) is shown for most of the stations, which was previously unexplored. Subsequently, DPT and T850 were used as covariates for non-stationary daily design storms. Higher magnitude design storms were obtained under the assumption of a non-stationary climate. The contrasting relationship between rainfall extremes with SAT and DPT has implications for understanding the changes in rainfall extremes in India under the projected climate.

  9. Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

  10. Rainfall variability in the Netherlands from radars, rain gauges, and disdrometers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van de R.

    2013-01-01

    <strong>Chapter 1strong>. This thesis presents studies on the variability of precipitation in the Netherlands from datasets collected by radars, rain gauges and disdrometers. Accurate rainfall estimates are highly relevant in hydrology, meteorology and climatology as precipitation has a large

  11. Gradient Alloy for Optical Packaging

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advances in additive manufacturing, such as Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS), enables the fabrication of compositionally gradient microstructures, i.e. gradient...

  12. Fluctuations of the relationship between ENSO and northeast Australian rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, W.; Whetton, P. H.; Pittock, A. B.

    It is well known that during an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event, drought occurs in regions of northeastern (NE) Australia, leading to anomalously low annual rainfall. The present study explores fluctuations of this ENSO-rainfall relationship. It is found that the relationship tends to weaken when the linearly detrended global mean temperature is rising or particularly high, as in the period of 1931-45 period and since the late 1970s. Prior to a weakening, a correlation pattern of increased rainfall during El Niño events is seen first in northwestern Australia, then in eastern and southeastern Australia, and eventually in NE Australia. The 1931-45 period was particularly intriguing, when in terms of rainfall variability over NE Australia, the interannual ENSO-rainfall relationship went through a process of weakening, reversal, and rapid recovery. Features associated with the reversal are therefore examined and these features are: (1) the global background anomaly pattern (upon which internnal ENSO events operate) is ENSO-like; (2) ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical Pacific are weaker compared with those averaged over all ENSO events, whereas SST anomalies in the mid- to-high latitude Pacific (which have opposing polarity to those in tropical Pacific) are larger; (3) there is strong coherence between ENSO and variability in northern mid- to high-latitudes; and (4) the relationship that an El Niño event contributes to a warming anomaly of global mean SST weakens. Possible interrelationship among these features are discussed.

  13. Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained

  14. Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

    2018-03-01

    The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

  15. Real-time adjusting of rainfall estimates from commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fencl, Martin; Dohnal, Michal; Bareš, Vojtěch

    2017-04-01

    at the beginning of rainfall events and during strong convective rainfalls, whereas performance during longer frontal rainfalls is almost unchanged. Our results clearly demonstrate that adjusting of CMLs to existing RGs represents a viable approach with great potential for real-time applications in stormwater management. This work was supported by the project of Czech Science Foundation (GACR) No.17-16389S. References: Fencl, M., Dohnal, M., Rieckermann, J. and Bareš, V.: Gauge-Adjusted Rainfall Estimates from Commercial Microwave Links, Hydrol Earth Syst. Sci., 2017 (accepted).

  16. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of ...

  17. Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of Indian monsoonal rainfall extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Nishant; Bookhagen, Bodo; Mucha, Peter J

    2016-02-28

    In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of trends in the extremes during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) months (June to September) at different temporal and spatial scales. Our goal is to identify and quantify spatiotemporal patterns and trends that have emerged during the recent decades and may be associated with changing climatic conditions. Our analysis primarily relies on quantile regression that avoids making any subjective choices on spatial, temporal, or intensity pattern of extreme rainfall events. Our analysis divides the Indian monsoon region into climatic compartments that show different and partly opposing trends. These include strong trends towards intensified droughts in Northwest India, parts of Peninsular India, and Myanmar; in contrast, parts of Pakistan, Northwest Himalaya, and Central India show increased extreme daily rain intensity leading to higher flood vulnerability. Our analysis helps explain previously contradicting results of trends in average ISM rainfall.

  18. Sn Concentration Gradients in Powder-in-tube Superconductors

    CERN Document Server

    Cantoni, M; Pfirter, P Y; de Borman, F; Rossen, J; Arnau, G; Oberli, L; Lee, P

    2010-01-01

    The Sn concentration gradients across the A15 phase have been studied by Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) measurements. High spatial resolution EDS measurements in the Transmission Electron Microscope reveal a comparatively strong Sn concentration gradient from the periphery towards the centre of individual (Nb Ta)3Sn grains.

  19. The Fingerprint of Present and Past Rainfall on Soil Geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundson, R.; Owen, J.; Ewing, S.; Nishiizumi, K.; Finkel, R.; Chadwick, O.; Dietrich, W.

    2007-12-01

    Research conducted in many locations show that soil weathering rates vary with time and environmental conditions. Here, we assemble long-term (105 to 106 y) chronosequence studies of soil chemistry in sites varying in MAP from ~1 to ~4000 mm y-1 to examine how the rate and magnitude of chemical weathering varies with climate, particularly at the dry end of the spectrum. In humid, vegetated landscapes, soil chemical weathering generally releases an array of rock forming elements that are removed via leaching, causing a subsequent mass loss and volumetric collapse. The rate of this process is non-linear, with instantaneous weathering rates declining greatly with time. In general, the rates and magnitude (for a soil of a given age) of chemical weathering decline greatly with decreasing rainfall. At the arid/hyperarid boundary, where rainfall decreases to the point that biota are essentially absent, chemical weathering nearly ceases, retention of atmospheric solutes and dust increases, and soil chemistry becomes mainly inorganic. The rates of mass gain and volumetric expansion in extremely hyperarid regions is hypothesized to be linear, differing from the non- linearity of processes in more humid regions. While the "fingerprint" of rainfall on soil properties is greatly magnified with increasing soil age, ancient soils commonly bear the imprint of multiple climate changes. In humid regions, detecting these changes in soil chemistry is difficult, whereas an increase in aridity, and a shift from net mass loss to net mass gain, produces a unique geochemical signal, and additionally preserves the weathering signal that occurred during the earlier pluvial episode. In two ancient (Miocene) well-preserved landscapes along a modern (and ancient) rainfall gradient in the Atacama Desert, the geochemical signal of climate change is clearly evident. Paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that northern Chile was under a permanent El Nino-like condition until the late Pliocene, and

  20. High-Resolution Discharge Forecasting for Snowmelt and Rainfall Mixed Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Berezowski

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Discharge events induced by mixture of snowmelt and rainfall are strongly nonlinear due to consequences of rain-on-snow phenomena and snowmelt dependence on energy balance. However, they received relatively little attention, especially in high-resolution discharge forecasting. In this study, we use Random Forests models for 24 h discharge forecasting in 1 h resolution in a 105.9 km 2 urbanized catchment in NE Poland: Biala River. The forcing data are delivered by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model in 1 h temporal and 4 × 4 km spatial resolutions. The discharge forecasting models are set in two scenarios with snowmelt and rainfall and rainfall only predictors in order to highlight the effect of snowmelt on the results (both scenarios use also pre-forecast discharge based predictors. We show that inclusion of snowmelt decrease the forecast errors for longer forecasts’ lead times. Moreover, importance of discharge based predictors is higher in the rainfall only models then in the snowmelt and rainfall models. We conclude that the role of snowmelt for discharge forecasting in mixed snowmelt and rainfall environments is in accounting for nonlinear physical processes, such as initial wetting and rain on snow, which cannot be properly modelled by rainfall only.

  1. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    extreme value distributions to model rainfall data from South Korea. Keywords. Annual maximum daily rainfall; extreme value theory; generalized extreme value distribution; Gumbel distribution; return levels; trend; data analysis, ..... Pareto distribution and Markov chain based mod- els. One could fit these distributions to the ...

  2. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    data at Belgrade, Yugoslavia; Atmosfera 5 47–56. Nguyen V T V, Nguyen T D and Wang H 1998 Regional estimation of short duration rainfall extremes; Water Sci- ence and Technology 37 15–19. Nguyen V T V, Nguyen T D and Ashkar F 2002 Regional fre- quency analysis of extreme rainfalls; Water Science and.

  3. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  4. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  5. Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-11-01

    Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

  6. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    yield models should be used for planning and forecasting the yield of millet and sorghum in the study area. Key words: modelling, rainfall, yields, millet, sorghum. INTRODUCTION. Meteorological variables, such as rainfall parameters, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind velocity and soil moisture are.

  7. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior.

  8. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions ...

  9. Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

  10. 10 Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    These observations seem to reveal that long-term or climatological observations alone are no longer sufficient for seasonal rainfall prediction to aid .... W. Index values for six consecutive months are considered. If the index values are ..... could be described as extreme ENSO events, have high rainfall variability during the.

  11. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they ...

  12. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural production in Ethiopia highly depends on rainfall and it is predominantly rain- fed. Variation of rainfall in space and time affects even the agricultural production system in the country. These have made the country vulnerable to famine. The famine is usually caused by drought. Historically, Ethiopia was affected ...

  13. Uniform gradient expansions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Giovannini

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cosmological singularities are often discussed by means of a gradient expansion that can also describe, during a quasi-de Sitter phase, the progressive suppression of curvature inhomogeneities. While the inflationary event horizon is being formed the two mentioned regimes coexist and a uniform expansion can be conceived and applied to the evolution of spatial gradients across the protoinflationary boundary. It is argued that conventional arguments addressing the preinflationary initial conditions are necessary but generally not sufficient to guarantee a homogeneous onset of the conventional inflationary stage.

  14. Uniform gradient expansions

    CERN Document Server

    Giovannini, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Cosmological singularities are often discussed by means of a gradient expansion that can also describe, during a quasi-de Sitter phase, the progressive suppression of curvature inhomogeneities. While the inflationary event horizon is being formed the two mentioned regimes coexist and a uniform expansion can be conceived and applied to the evolution of spatial gradients across the protoinflationary boundary. It is argued that conventional arguments addressing the preinflationary initial conditions are necessary but generally not sufficient to guarantee a homogeneous onset of the conventional inflationary stage.

  15. High gradient superconducting quadrupoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundy, R.A.; Brown, B.C.; Carson, J.A.; Fisk, H.E.; Hanft, R.H.; Mantsch, P.M.; McInturff, A.D.; Remsbottom, R.H.

    1987-07-01

    Prototype superconducting quadrupoles with a 5 cm aperture and gradient of 16 kG/cm have been built and tested as candidate magnets for the final focus at SLC. The magnets are made from NbTi Tevatron style cable with 10 inner and 14 outer turns per quadrant. Quench performance and multipole data are presented. Design and data for a low current, high gradient quadrupole, similar in cross section but wound with a cable consisting of five insulated conductors are also discussed

  16. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  17. Penaeid Shrimp Salinity Gradient Tank Study 2005-2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — We designed an experimental gradient tank to examine salinity preferences of juvenile brown shrimp and white shrimp. Although no strong pattern of salinity avoidance...

  18. Forest gradients in West Africa : a spatial gradient analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rompaey, van R.S.A.R.

    1993-01-01

    The tropical rain forests of West Africa, west of the Dahomey interval, once covered some 40 million ha. Being on the western fringe of the African continent, they receive abundant rainfall from the SW monsoon. Further inland, rainfall gradually decreases and the forests give way to savanna and

  19. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  20. Addressing rainfall data selection uncertainty using connections between rainfall and streamflow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Morgan C; Cohn, Avery; Lopes, Alan Vaz; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-03-16

    Studies of the hydroclimate at regional scales rely on spatial rainfall data products, derived from remotely-sensed (RS) and in-situ (IS, rain gauge) observations. Because regional rainfall cannot be directly measured, spatial data products are biased. These biases pose a source of uncertainty in environmental analyses, attributable to the choices made by data-users in selecting a representation of rainfall. We use the rainforest-savanna transition region in Brazil to show differences in the statistics describing rainfall across nine RS and interpolated-IS daily rainfall datasets covering the period of 1998-2013. These differences propagate into estimates of temporal trends in monthly rainfall and descriptive hydroclimate indices. Rainfall trends from different datasets are inconsistent at river basin scales, and the magnitude of index differences is comparable to the estimated bias in global climate model projections. To address this uncertainty, we evaluate the correspondence of different rainfall datasets with streamflow from 89 river basins. We demonstrate that direct empirical comparisons between rainfall and streamflow provide a method for evaluating rainfall dataset performance across multiple areal (basin) units. These results highlight the need for users of rainfall datasets to quantify this "data selection uncertainty" problem, and either justify data use choices, or report the uncertainty in derived results.

  1. FLASH-FLOOD MODELLING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS USING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu Cristian

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in modelling the hydrological processes has become a common approach in the last two decades, among side the traditional methods. In regard to the rainfall-runoff modelling, in both traditional and ANN models the use of ground rainfall measurements is prevalent, which can be challenging in areas with low rain gauging station density, especially in catchments where strong focused rainfall can generate flash-floods. The weather radar technology can prove to be a solution for such areas by providing rain estimates with good time and space resolution. This paper presents a comparison between different ANN setups using as input both ground and radar observations for modelling the rainfall-runoff process for Bahluet catchment, with focus on a flash-flood observed in the catchment.

  2. Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

    2017-04-01

    In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

  3. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  4. A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhao, Sen; Li, Yanjie

    2016-10-01

    A statistical approach is utilized to construct an interannual model for summer (July-August) rainfall over the western parts of South Asian Monsoon. Observed monthly rainfall data for selected stations of Pakistan for the last 55 years (1960-2014) is taken as predictand. Recommended climate indices along with the oceanic and atmospheric data on global scales, for the period April-June are employed as predictors. First 40 years data has been taken as training period and the rest as validation period. Cross-validation stepwise regression approach adopted to select the robust predictors. Upper tropospheric zonal wind at 200 hPa over the northeastern Atlantic is finally selected as the best predictor for interannual model. Besides, the next possible candidate `geopotential height at upper troposphere' is taken as the indirect predictor for being a source of energy transportation from core region (northeast Atlantic/western Europe) to the study area. The model performed well for both the training as well as validation period with correlation coefficient of 0.71 and tolerable root mean square errors. Cross-validation of the model has been processed by incorporating JRA-55 data for potential predictors in addition to NCEP and fragmentation of study period to five non-overlapping test samples. Subsequently, to verify the outcome of the model on physical grounds, observational analyses as well as the model simulations are incorporated. It is revealed that originating from the jet exit region through large vorticity gradients, zonally dominating waves may transport energy and momentum to the downstream areas of west-central Asia, that ultimately affect interannual variability of the specific rainfall. It has been detected that both the circumglobal teleconnection and Rossby wave propagation play vital roles in modulating the proposed mechanism.

  5. On the dust load and rainfall relationship in South Asia: an analysis from CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2018-01-01

    This study is aimed at examining the consistency of the relationship between load of dust and rainfall simulated by different climate models and its implication for the Indian summer monsoon system. Monthly mean outputs of 12 climate models, obtained from the archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period 1951-2004, are analyzed to investigate the relationship between dust and rainfall. Comparative analysis of the model simulated precipitation with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall, CRU TS3.21 and GPCP version 2.2 data sets show significant differences between the spatial patterns of JJAS rainfall as well as annual cycle of rainfall simulated by various models and observations. Similarly, significant inter-model differences are also noted in the simulation of load of dust, nevertheless it is further noted that most of the CMIP5 models are able to capture the major dust sources across the study region. Although the scatter plot analysis and the lead-lag pattern correlation between the dust load and the rainfall show strong relationship between the dust load over distant sources and the rainfall in the South Asian region in individual models, the temporal scale of this association indicates large differences amongst the models. Our results caution that it would be pre-mature to draw any robust conclusions on the time scale of the relationship between dust and the rainfall in the South Asian region based on either CMIP5 results or limited number of previous studies. Hence, we would like to emphasize upon the fact that any conclusions drawn on the relationship between the dust load and the South Asian rainfall using model simulation is highly dependent on the degree of complexity incorporated in those models such as the representation of aerosol life cycle, their interaction with clouds, precipitation and other components of the climate system.

  6. Remote sensing-based characterization of rainfall during atmospheric rivers over the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, Munir A.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2018-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a central role in the hydrology and hydroclimatology of the central United States. More than 25% of the annual rainfall is associated with ARs over much of this region, with many large flood events tied to their occurrence. Despite the relevance of these storms for flood hydrology and water budget, the characteristics of rainfall associated with ARs over the central United has not been investigated thus far. This study fills this major scientific gap by describing the rainfall during ARs over the central United States using five remote sensing-based precipitation products over a 12-year study period. The products we consider are: Stage IV, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH). As part of the study, we evaluate these products against a rain gauge-based dataset using both graphical- and metrics-based diagnostics. Based on our analyses, Stage IV is found to better reproduce the reference data. Hence, we use it for the characterization of rainfall in ARs. Most of the AR-rainfall is located in a narrow region within ∼150 km on both sides of the AR major axis. In this region, rainfall has a pronounced positive relationship with the magnitude of the water vapor transport. Moreover, we have also identified a consistent increase in rainfall intensity with duration (or persistence) of AR conditions. However, there is not a strong indication of diurnal variability in AR rainfall. These results can be directly used in developing flood protection strategies during ARs. Further, weather prediction agencies can benefit from the results of this study to achieve higher skill of resolving precipitation processes in their models.

  7. Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new

  8. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought characteristics across the Pearl River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shulin; Chen, Tan; Yang, Ni; Qu, Lean; Li, Manchun; Chen, Dong

    2018-04-01

    Understanding rainfall trends as well as drought characteristics plays a key role in watershed development and management. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and drought based on temperature and precipitation data observed in 48 meteorological stations from 1959 to 2012 across the Pearl River Basin in China were analyzed. The possible influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and El Nino Modoki (ENSO_M) events on seasonal drought based on the Standardized Precipitation-evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were also investigated. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfall decreased slightly in most areas, annual and seasonal daily precipitation concentration decreased in a few areas, monthly rainfall had an irregular distribution but with no significant trend detected, and rainfall seasonality increased in most areas. Drought tended to worsen during recent years, especially in the upper reaches, and seasonal drought also tended to become serious or occurred frequently across the Pearl River Basin. The drought patterns are not only related to the decreasing trends in rainfall but also to changes in the daily rainfall concentration, monthly rainfall heterogeneity, and rainfall seasonality. Both ENSO and ENSO_M events had an influence on summer drought in the middle-upper reaches. The ENSO events dominated the patterns of autumn drought in the Pearl River Delta, and the ENSO_M events strongly affected the changing patterns of autumn drought in the middle-upper reaches and northern parts of the middle-lower reaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gautam

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

  10. A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

    2014-05-01

    Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures

  11. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  12. The Effects of Amazon Deforestation on Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor); Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Surratt, Jason

    2002-01-01

    This study begins with the hypothesis that heavily deforested regions will experience increased surface heating, leading to local circulations that will ultimately enhance the rainfall, or at least, change the pattern of diurnal evolution of rainfall. This would be an important finding because several modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation would lead to decreased rainfall. Towards that end rain estimates from a combined GOES infrared/TRMM microwave technique were analyzed with respect to percent forest cover from Landsat data (courtesy of TRFIC at Michigan State University) and GOES visible channel data over a deforested area in Rondonia (southwest Brazil). Five 1" x 1" areas of varying forest cover were examined during the onset of the wet season in Amazonia (Aug-Sept), when the effects of the surface would not be dominated by large-scale synoptic weather patterns. Preliminary results revealed that: maximum rainfall fell in most deforested area; heavily forested areas received the least rainfall; cumulus cloud development initiated at borders; the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation was a function of th surface cover. Further work will be presented detailing effects of land surface cover on the GOES infrared-measured surface heating, GOES visible observed cumulus development, thunderstorm initiation based on the location of temperature minima in the infrared data, and estimated rainfall and its diurnal cycle from a combined GOES/TRMM technique. Rainfall estimates derived from non-geosynchronous microwave observations (i.e. Goddard Profiling Algorithm, GPROF) will also be examined.

  13. Rainfall variability in Bulgaria and its relation with NAO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolova, Nina

    2004-01-01

    The variation of climate exerts strong influence on the productivity of agriculture and on the various aspects of human activity. Many research programs at local, regional and global levels show as a main task the action to reduce, avoid, and better understand the risk associated with the climate change. The precipitation determines the availability of drinking water and the level of the soil moisture. The paper is intended to provide information about seasonal and geographical variation of precipitation in Bulgaria and its relation with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A Statistical test is applied to test the homogeneity and distribution of the initial data. In order to characterize the long-term and more recent trends linear regression equations are calculated. Correlation analysis is used to define the relationship between precipitation and global circulation mechanisms. The main question of the research is: whether the observed trend in Bulgaria corresponds to the global climate change? The tasks are: - Investigation of short-term and long-term rainfall variability - Assessment of statistical significance of the linear trend - Establishing the relationship between rainfall variability and NAO - what is the influence of the NAO on rainfall variability in Bulgaria In order to characterize the long-term and more recent trends linear regression equations were calculated individually for each station for two periods 1931-2000 and 1961-2000. The trend is negative or close to 0 for the first period. For the second period it is a negative with the values for January to April between -0.2 and -0.7. Correlation analysis is applied to define the relationship between rainfall variability in Bulgaria and NAO. The relationship is stronger for more recent period 1960-2000. The correlation coefficients are negative. Statistical significant coefficients are found for January, February and March. The paper gives information about climate change in regional scale. The results

  14. Testing strong interaction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.

    1979-01-01

    The author discusses possible tests of the current theories of the strong interaction, in particular, quantum chromodynamics. High energy e + e - interactions should provide an excellent means of studying the strong force. (W.D.L.)

  15. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  16. Effects of experimental rainfall manipulations on Chihuahuan Desert grassland and shrubland plant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Báez, Selene; Collins, Scott L; Pockman, William T; Johnson, Jennifer E; Small, Eric E

    2013-08-01

    Aridland ecosystems are predicted to be responsive to both increases and decreases in precipitation. In addition, chronic droughts may contribute to encroachment of native C3 shrubs into C4-dominated grasslands. We conducted a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment in native grassland, shrubland and the grass-shrub ecotone in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, USA. We evaluated the effects of 5 years of experimental drought and 4 years of water addition on plant community structure and dynamics. We assessed the effects of altered rainfall regimes on the abundance of dominant species as well as on species richness and subdominant grasses, forbs and shrubs. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and MANOVA were used to quantify changes in species composition in response to chronic addition or reduction of rainfall. We found that drought consistently and strongly decreased cover of Bouteloua eriopoda, the dominant C4 grass in this system, whereas water addition slightly increased cover, with little variation between years. In contrast, neither chronic drought nor increased rainfall had consistent effects on the cover of Larrea tridentata, the dominant C3 shrub. Species richness declined in shrub-dominated vegetation in response to drought whereas richness increased or was unaffected by water addition or drought in mixed- and grass-dominated vegetation. Cover of subdominant shrubs, grasses and forbs changed significantly over time, primarily in response to interannual rainfall variability more so than to our experimental rainfall treatments. Nevertheless, drought and water addition shifted the species composition of plant communities in all three vegetation types. Overall, we found that B. eriopoda responded strongly to drought and less so to irrigation, whereas L. tridentata showed limited response to either treatment. The strong decline in grass cover and the resistance of shrub cover to rainfall reduction suggest that chronic drought may be a key factor promoting shrub

  17. Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models

  18. Assessing the Change in Rainfall Characteristics and Trends for the Southern African ITCZ Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumberg, Verena; Weber, Torsten; Helmschrot, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    Southern Africa is strongly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) thus determining the climate in this region with distinct seasonal and inter-annual rainfall dynamics. The amount and variability of rainfall affect the various ecosystems by controlling the hydrological system, regulating water availability and determining agricultural practices. Changes in rainfall characteristics potentially caused by climate change are of uppermost relevance for both ecosystem functioning and human well-being in this region and, thus, need to be investigated. To analyse the rainfall variability governed by the ITCZ in southern Africa, observational daily rainfall datasets with a high spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° (about 28 km x 28 km) from satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used. These datasets extend from 1998 to 2008 and 1948 to 2010, respectively, and allow for the assessment of rainfall characteristics over different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, a comparison of TRMM and GLDAS and, where available, with observed data will be made to determine the differences of both datasets. In order to quantify the intra- and inner-annual variability of rainfall, the amount of total rainfall, duration of rainy seasons and number of dry spells along with further indices are calculated from the observational datasets. Over the southern African ITCZ region, the rainfall characteristics change moving from wetter north to the drier south, but also from west to east, i.e. the coast to the interior. To address expected spatial and temporal variabilities, the assessment of changes in the rainfall parameters will be carried out for different transects in zonal and meridional directions over the region affected by the ITCZ. Revealing trends over more than 60 years, the results will help to identify and understand potential impacts of climate change on

  19. Analysis of Rainfall Characteristicsfor Flood Estimation in Way Awi Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusumastuti D.I.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates rainfall intensity distribution in Way Awi watershed located in Bandar Lampung, and how their impacts on flood peak and flood hydrographs. Hourly rainfall data is examined to obtain design rainfall intensity and rainfall intensity distribution at rainfall duration from three to eight hours. Rainfall-runoff model, i.e. Rational method is used to calculate flood peak while unit hydrograph method is used to develop flood hydrograph. This study shows that in Way Awi watershed 88.3% to 96.4% of 24-hour rain occurs in three to eight hour durations. In addition, rainfall with three hour duration generates the highest flood peak, followed by four hour duration rainfall. When rainfall duration and design rainfall intensity are the same but rainfall intensity distribution is different, generated flood hydrograph may have different flood peak magnitude and timing. Result of this study is useful for flood analysis and mitigation in Way Awi watershed.

  20. Temperature-gradient-induced

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Cheol; Glaser, Matt; Maclennan, Joe; Clark, Noel; Trittel, Torsten; Stannarius, Ralf

    Freely-suspended smectic films of sub-micrometer thickness and lateral extensions of several millimeters were used to study thermally driven migration and convection in the film plane. Film experiments were performed during the 6 minute microgravity phase of a TEXUS suborbital rocket flight (Texus 52, launched April 27, 2015). We have found an attraction of the smectic material towards the cold edge of the film in a temperature gradient, similar to the Soret effect. This process is reversed when this edge is heated up again. Thermal convection driven by two thermocontacts in the film is practically absent, even at temperature gradients up to 10 K/mm, with thermally driven convection only setting in when the hot post reaches the transition temperature to the nematic phase. The Observation and Analysis of Smectic Islands in Space (OASIS) flight hardware was launched on SpaceX-6 in April 2015 and experiments on smectic bubbles were carried out on the International Space Station using four different smectic A and C liquid crystal materials in separate sample chambers. We observed that smectic islands on the surface of the bubbles migrated towards the colder part of the bubble in a temperature gradient. This work was supported by NASA Grant No. NNX-13AQ81G, by the Soft Materials Research Center under NSF MRSEC Grants No. DMR-0820579 and No. DMR-1420736, and by DLR Grants 50WM1127 and 50WM1430.

  1. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  2. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    1995-01-01

    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...... of the engineering application of rainfall data for design. The article describes the engineering purpose and design of sewer systems, the initial data treatment, the results from the first statistical analysis and the consequence for engineering application....

  3. Canonical trivialization of gravitational gradients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niedermaier, Max

    2017-01-01

    A one-parameter family of canonical transformations is constructed that reduces the Hamiltonian form of the Einstein–Hilbert action to its strong coupling limit where dynamical spatial gradients are absent. The parameter can alternatively be viewed as the overall scale of the spatial metric or as a fractional inverse power of Newton’s constant. The generating function of the canonical transformation is constructed iteratively as a powerseries in the parameter to all orders. The algorithm draws on Lie–Deprit transformation theory and defines a ‘trivialization map’ with several bonus properties: (i) Trivialization of the Hamiltonian constraint implies that of the action while the diffeomorphism constraint is automatically co-transformed. (ii) Only a set of ordinary differential equations needs to be solved to drive the iteration via a homological equation where no gauge fixing is required. (iii) In contrast to (the classical limit of) a Lagrangian trivialization map the algorithm also produces series solutions of the field equations. (iv) In the strong coupling theory temporal gauge variations are abelian, nevertheless the map intertwines with the respective gauge symmetries on the action, the field equations, and their solutions. (paper)

  4. Canonical trivialization of gravitational gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedermaier, Max

    2017-06-01

    A one-parameter family of canonical transformations is constructed that reduces the Hamiltonian form of the Einstein-Hilbert action to its strong coupling limit where dynamical spatial gradients are absent. The parameter can alternatively be viewed as the overall scale of the spatial metric or as a fractional inverse power of Newton’s constant. The generating function of the canonical transformation is constructed iteratively as a powerseries in the parameter to all orders. The algorithm draws on Lie-Deprit transformation theory and defines a ‘trivialization map’ with several bonus properties: (i) Trivialization of the Hamiltonian constraint implies that of the action while the diffeomorphism constraint is automatically co-transformed. (ii) Only a set of ordinary differential equations needs to be solved to drive the iteration via a homological equation where no gauge fixing is required. (iii) In contrast to (the classical limit of) a Lagrangian trivialization map the algorithm also produces series solutions of the field equations. (iv) In the strong coupling theory temporal gauge variations are abelian, nevertheless the map intertwines with the respective gauge symmetries on the action, the field equations, and their solutions.

  5. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-03-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  6. Association of Taiwan’s Rainfall Patterns with Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Kuo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A 50-year (1960–2009 monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs analysis revealed the patterns associated with the large-scale sea surface temperature variability over Pacific. The first mode (65% revealed the annual peaks of large rainfall in the southwestern mountainous area, which is associated with southwest monsoons and typhoons during summertime. The second temporal EOF mode (16% revealed the rainfall variance associated with the monsoon and its interaction with the slopes of the mountain range. This pattern is the major contributor to spatial variance of rainfall in Taiwan, as indicated by the first mode (40% of spatial variance EOF analysis. The second temporal EOF mode correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. In particular, during the autumn of the La Niña years following the strong El Niño years, the time-varying amplitude was substantially greater than that of normal years. The third temporal EOF mode (7% revealed a north-south out-of-phase rainfall pattern, the slowly evolving variations of which were in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Because of Taiwan’s geographic location and the effect of local terrestrial structures, climate variability related to ENSO differed markedly from other regions in East Asia.

  7. Soil degradation level under particular annual rainfall at Jenawi District– Karanganyar, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herawati, A.; Suntoro; Widijanto, H.; Pusponegoro, I.; Sutopo, N. R.; Mujiyo

    2018-03-01

    The study of the climatic elements such as rainfall is vital for the sustainable development of agriculture at a region. The aims of the study were to evaluate the soil degradation based on the annual rainfall and to determine the key factors which responsible for the soil degradation at in Jenawi Sub-District. The mapping of soil degradation potency is an identification of initial soil condition to discover the potential of the land degradation. The mapping was done by overlaying the map of soil, slope, rainfall and land use with the standard procedures to obtain the value and status of Soil Degradation Potency (SDP). The result showed that SDP in Jenawi District categorized in very low (SDP I) 0.00 ha (0.00%); low (SDP II) 109.01 ha (2.57%); moderate (SDP III) 1,935.92 ha (45.63%); high (SDP IV) 1,959.54 ha (46.19%) and very high (SDP V) 238.08 ha (5.61%). The rainfall is the factor which has the strong correlation with the SDP (r = 0.65, P < 0.01, n = 306). The changes in the rainfall as the impact of climate change need to be anticipated to minimize soil degradation. The result can be adapted to the rainfall changes in various ways based on local soil-land characteristics.

  8. Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia's extreme 2010-2012 rainfall model-dependent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; Karoly, David J.

    2015-08-01

    Australia experienced much above average rainfall in association with strong, extended La Niña conditions during 2010-2012. Was the heavy Australian rainfall influenced by La Niña conditions and/or anthropogenic greenhouse gases? We investigate the relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural climatic variability to the likelihood of heavy Australian rainfall using three distinct model datasets. Area-average rainfall anomalies for model simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings using 16 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of unusual rainfall between the parallel experiments, we find attribution statements are uncertain, with FAR values sensitive to the attribution parameters considered, including thresholds, regions and seasons. When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically-induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model-dependent. Overall, the attribution of seasonal-scale heavy Australia rainfall to a particular cause is likely more complicated than for temperature extremes. As estimates of the greenhouse gas attributable change in rainfall risk may depend on the model datasets considered, it is also useful to consider model outputs from several datasets and using various estimates of counterfactual surface conditions to establish robust attribution statements for extreme rainfall events. In contrast, comparing the likelihoods of heavy rainfall during simulated La Niña years with El Niño/neutral years reveals a substantial La Niña influence on Australian rainfall during 2010-2012 that is robust to changes in the attribution framework.

  9. The Brazilian freshwater wetscape: Changes in tree community diversity and composition on climatic and geographic gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Wittmann

    Full Text Available Wetlands harbor an important compliment of regional plant diversity, but in many regions data on wetland diversity and composition is still lacking, thus hindering our understanding of the processes that control it. While patterns of broad-scale terrestrial diversity and composition typically correlate with contemporary climate it is not clear to what extent patterns in wetlands are complimentary, or conflicting. To elucidate this, we consolidate data from wetland forest inventories in Brazil and examine patterns of diversity and composition along temperature and rainfall gradients spanning five biomes. We collated 196 floristic inventories covering an area >220 ha and including >260,000 woody individuals. We detected a total of 2,453 tree species, with the Amazon alone accounting for nearly half. Compositional patterns indicated differences in freshwater wetland floras among Brazilian biomes, although biomes with drier, more seasonal climates tended to have a larger proportion of more widely distributed species. Maximal alpha diversity increased with annual temperature, rainfall, and decreasing seasonality, patterns broadly consistent with upland vegetation communities. However, alpha diversity-climate relationships were only revealed at higher diversity values associated with the uppermost quantiles, and in most sites diversity varied irrespective of climate. Likewise, mean biome-level differences in alpha-diversity were unexpectedly modest, even in comparisons of savanna-area wetlands to those of nearby forested regions. We describe attenuated wetland climate-diversity relationships as a shifting balance of local and regional effects on species recruitment. Locally, excessive waterlogging strongly filters species able to colonize from regional pools. On the other hand, increased water availability can accommodate a rich community of drought-sensitive immigrant species that are able to track buffered wetland microclimates. We argue that

  10. The Brazilian freshwater wetscape: Changes in tree community diversity and composition on climatic and geographic gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Florian; Marques, Márcia C M; Damasceno Júnior, Geraldo; Budke, Jean Carlos; Piedade, Maria T F; de Oliveira Wittmann, Astrid; Montero, Juan Carlos; de Assis, Rafael L; Targhetta, Natália; Parolin, Pia; Junk, Wolfgang J; Householder, J Ethan

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands harbor an important compliment of regional plant diversity, but in many regions data on wetland diversity and composition is still lacking, thus hindering our understanding of the processes that control it. While patterns of broad-scale terrestrial diversity and composition typically correlate with contemporary climate it is not clear to what extent patterns in wetlands are complimentary, or conflicting. To elucidate this, we consolidate data from wetland forest inventories in Brazil and examine patterns of diversity and composition along temperature and rainfall gradients spanning five biomes. We collated 196 floristic inventories covering an area >220 ha and including >260,000 woody individuals. We detected a total of 2,453 tree species, with the Amazon alone accounting for nearly half. Compositional patterns indicated differences in freshwater wetland floras among Brazilian biomes, although biomes with drier, more seasonal climates tended to have a larger proportion of more widely distributed species. Maximal alpha diversity increased with annual temperature, rainfall, and decreasing seasonality, patterns broadly consistent with upland vegetation communities. However, alpha diversity-climate relationships were only revealed at higher diversity values associated with the uppermost quantiles, and in most sites diversity varied irrespective of climate. Likewise, mean biome-level differences in alpha-diversity were unexpectedly modest, even in comparisons of savanna-area wetlands to those of nearby forested regions. We describe attenuated wetland climate-diversity relationships as a shifting balance of local and regional effects on species recruitment. Locally, excessive waterlogging strongly filters species able to colonize from regional pools. On the other hand, increased water availability can accommodate a rich community of drought-sensitive immigrant species that are able to track buffered wetland microclimates. We argue that environmental conditions

  11. Magnetoelectric Transverse Gradient Sensor with High Detection Sensitivity and Low Gradient Noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mingji; Or, Siu Wing

    2017-10-25

    We report, theoretically and experimentally, the realization of a high detection performance in a novel magnetoelectric (ME) transverse gradient sensor based on the large ME effect and the magnetic field gradient (MFG) technique in a pair of magnetically-biased, electrically-shielded, and mechanically-enclosed ME composites having a transverse orientation and an axial separation. The output voltage of the gradient sensor is directly obtained from the transverse MFG-induced difference in ME voltage between the two ME composites and is calibrated against transverse MFGs to give a high detection sensitivity of 0.4-30.6 V/(T/m), a strong common-mode magnetic field noise rejection rate of 35 mm. An analysis of experimental gradient noise spectra obtained in a magnetically-unshielded laboratory environment reveals the domination of the pink (1/ f ) noise, dielectric loss noise, and power-frequency noise below 3 kHz, in addition to the circuit noise above 3 kHz, in the gradient sensor. The high detection performance, together with the added merit of passive and direct ME conversion by the large ME effect in the ME composites, makes the gradient sensor suitable for the passive, direct, and broadband detection of transverse MFGs.

  12. Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Wang-chun

    2013-04-01

    The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

  13. Conditions for the Occurrence of Slaking and Other Disaggregation Processes under Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Darboux

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Under rainfall conditions, aggregates may suffer breakdown by different mechanisms. Slaking is a very efficient breakdown mechanism. However, its occurrence under rainfall conditions has not been demonstrated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of slaking under rain. Two soils with silt loam (SL and clay loam (CL textures were analyzed. Two classes of aggregates were utilized: 1–3 mm and 3–5 mm. The aggregates were submitted to stability tests and to high intensity (90 mm·h−1 and low intensity (28 mm·h−1 rainfalls, and different kinetic energy impacts (large and small raindrops using a rainfall simulator. The fragment size distributions were determined both after the stability tests and rainfall simulations, with the calculation of the mean weighted diameter (MWD. After the stability tests the SL presented smaller MWDs for all stability tests when compared to the CL. In both soils the lowest MWD was obtained using the fast wetting test, showing they were sensitive to slaking. For both soils and the two aggregate classes evaluated, the MWDs were recorded from the early beginning of the rainfall event under the four rainfall conditions. The occurrence of slaking in the evaluated soils was not verified under the simulated rainfall conditions studied. The early disaggregation was strongly related to the cumulative kinetic energy, advocating for the occurrence of mechanical breakdown. Because slaking requires a very high wetting rate on initially dry aggregates, it seems unlikely to occur under field conditions, except perhaps for furrow irrigation.

  14. Reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for landslides using an algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto; Peruccacci, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    In Italy, intense or prolonged rainfall is the primary trigger of damaging landslides. The identification of the rainfall conditions responsible for the initiation of landslides is a crucial issue and may contribute to reduce landslide risk. Objective criteria for the identification of rainfall conditions that could initiate slope failures are still lacking or ambiguous. The reconstruction of rainfall events able to trigger past landslides is usually performed manually by expert investigators. Here, we propose an algorithm that reconstructs automatically rainfall events from a series of hourly rainfall data. The automatic reconstruction reproduces the actions performed by an expert investigator that adopts empirical rules to define rainfall conditions that presumably initiated the documented landslides. The algorithm, which is implemented in R (http://www.r-project.org), performs three actions on the data series: (i) removes isolated events with negligible amount of rainfall and random noise generated by the rain gauge; (ii) aggregates rainfall measurements in order to obtain a sequence of distinct rainfall events; (iii) identifies single or multiple rainfall conditions responsible for the slope failures. In particular, the algorithm calculates the duration, D, and the cumulated rainfall, E, for rainfall events, and for rainfall conditions that have resulted in landslides. A set of input parameters allows the automatic reconstruction of rainfall events in different physical settings and climatic conditions. We tested the algorithm using rainfall and landslide information available to us for Sicily, Southern Italy, in the period between January 2002 and December 2012. The algorithm reconstructed 13,537 rainfall events and 343 rainfall conditions as possible triggers of the 163 documented landslides. Most (87.7%) of the rainfall conditions obtained manually were reconstructed accurately. Use of the algorithm shall contribute to an objective and reproducible

  15. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-09

    Feb 9, 2009 ... A significant rainfall event is defined when the average rainfall exceeds 10 mm, a heavy rainfall event when the average rainfall ..... in October (72 mm) even though the number of days with some rain was very similar (15 to 17 d). The standard deviation of the average monthly rain- fall in March was 54 mm ...

  16. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

  17. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

  18. Changes in the interannual SST-forced signals on West African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohino, Elsa [LOCEAN/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla (Spain); Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Geociencias (CSIC-UCM), Madrid (Spain); Losada, Teresa [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Gervois, Sebastien [LOCEAN/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Janicot, Serge [LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France); Bader, Juergen [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Ruti, Paolo [Progetto Speciale Clima Globale, Ente Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l' Energia e l' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); Chauvin, Fabrice [GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France/CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2011-11-15

    Rainfall over West Africa shows strong interannual variability related to changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Nevertheless, this relationship seem to be non-stationary. A particular turning point is the decade of the 1970s, which witnessed a number of changes in the climatic system, including the climate shift of the late 1970s. The first aim of this study is to explore the change in the interannual variability of West African rainfall after this shift. The analysis indicates that the dipolar features of the rainfall variability over this region, related to changes in the Atlantic SST, disappear after this period. Also, the Pacific SST variability has a higher correlation with Guinean rainfall in the recent period. The results suggest that the current relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific El Nino phenomena is the principal responsible for these changes. A fundamental goal of climate research is the development of models simulating a realistic current climate. For this reason, the second aim of this work is to test the performance of Atmospheric General Circulation models in simulating rainfall variability over West Africa. The models have been run with observed SSTs for the common period 1957-1998 as part of an intercomparison exercise. The results show that the models are able to reproduce Guinean interannual variability, which is strongly related to SST variability in the Equatorial Atlantic. Nevertheless, problems in the simulation of the Sahelian interannual variability appear: not all models are able to reproduce the observed negative link between rainfall over the Sahel and El Nino-like anomalies in the Pacific, neither the positive correlation between Mediterranean SSTs and Sahelian rainfall. (orig.)

  19. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  20. The Galactic metallicity gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolleston, W. R. J.; Smartt, S. J.; Dufton, P. L.; Ryans, R. S. I.

    2000-11-01

    We have previously published intermediate to high resolution spectroscopic observations of approximately 80 early B-type main-sequence stars situated in 19 Galactic open clusters/associations with Galactocentric distances distributed over 6Twarog et al. \\cite{twa97}). However, there is no evidence to suggest that our data would be better fitted with a two-zone model. Moreover, we observe a N/O gradient of -0.04+/-0.02 dex kpc-1 which is consistent with that found for other spiral galaxies (Vila-Costas & Edmunds \\cite{vil93}).

  1. [Translaminar Gradient and Glaucoma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čmelo, J

    2017-01-01

    The cribriform plate is a threshold of the intraocular pressure (VOT) and of the intracranial pressure (IKT). The difference between the VOT and IKT is referred to as translaminar gradient (TLG). The goal was to evaluate the Glaucoma progression (visual field, fundus examination, HRT) with / without topical anti-glaucomatous therapy) in relation to the TLG. the significance of TLG has been studied in two groups. I. Group: 57 patients diagnosed and treatment of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma (PGOU), 10 patients with Ocular hypertension (OH), 7 patients with Normal-Tension Glaucoma (NTG), and 75 healthy without glaucoma. The examinations of TLG were carried out once and retrospectively. In II. group there were prospectively studied 14 patients with OH and 24 patients with newly detected PGOU without local therapy. The examinations were performed 4 times at intervals of 10 to 11 months. All tests included a basic eye examination, ORA tonometry, HRT examination, gonioscopy, Color Doppler sonography of blood vessels of the eye and orbit. Venous pulsation pressure (VPT) has been recorded by the Ophthalmodynamometer Meditron (D-ODM). In case of spontaneous retinal venous pulsation, VPT was considered as the same pressure as the VOT. The TLG was calculated with formula of Querfurth: ICT = 0.29 + 0.74 (VOT / PI (AO)). [PI(AO) - Pulsatility index of the Ophthalmic artery (AO)]. I. group: TLG was in the control group without Glaucoma: 12.2 ± 2.0 torr. The NTG group: 9.0 ± 1.70 mm Hg. PGOU: 11.1 ± 1.91 mm Hg. OH: 12.6 ± 0.85 mm Hg. IKT alone does not show a significant relationship to the presence of glaucoma, ocular hypertension. II. Group: The average TLG in Ocular Hypertension (14 patients) has been 3.8 ± 1.2 torr. 2 patients (OH) had TLG 10 torr. and 15 torr. After 4 years in one of them (TLG = 15 torr.) there was recorded Glaucoma progression. In the PGOU group before antiglaucoma therapy, TLG was 15.0 ± 4.8 torr for all patients. After setting up local anti

  2. How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, Mohd Rizaludin; Hashim, Mazlan; Reba, Mohd Nadzri Mohd

    2017-08-01

    We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman's correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d-1). A strong relationship between GPM

  3. Ensemble climate projections of mean and extreme rainfall over Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2017-01-01

    A systematic ensemble high resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam has been performed using the PRECIS model developed by the Hadley Center in UK. A 5 member subset of the 17-member Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) of the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project were simulated and analyzed. The PRECIS model simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 25 km for the baseline period 1961-1990 and a future climate period 2061-2090 under scenario A1B. The results of model simulations show that the model was able to reproduce the mean state of climate over Vietnam when compared to observations. The annual cycles and seasonal averages of precipitation over different sub-regions of Vietnam show the ability of the model in also reproducing the observed peak and magnitude of monthly rainfall. The climate extremes of precipitation were also fairly well captured. Projections of future climate show both increases and decreases in the mean climate over different regions of Vietnam. The analyses of future extreme rainfall using the STARDEX precipitation indices show an increase in 90th percentile precipitation (P90p) over the northern provinces (15-25%) and central highland (5-10%) and over southern Vietnam (up to 5%). The total number of wet days (Prcp) indicates a decrease of about 5-10% all over Vietnam. Consequently, an increase in the wet day rainfall intensity (SDII), is likely inferring that the projected rainfall would be much more severe and intense which have the potential to cause flooding in some regions. Risks due to extreme drought also exist in other regions where the number of wet days decreases. In addition, the maximum 5 day consecutive rainfall (R5d) increases by 20-25% over northern Vietnam but decreases in a similar range over the central and southern Vietnam. These results have strong implications for the management water resources, agriculture, bio diversity and economy and serve as some useful findings to be

  4. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has altered not only the overall magnitude of rainfall but also their seasonal distribution and interannual variability across the world. Such changes in the rainfall regimes will be most keenly felt in arid and semiarid regions, where the availability and timing of water are key factors controlling biogeochemical cycles, primary productivity, and phenology, in addition to regulating regional agricultural production and economic output. Nevertheless, due to the inherent complexity of the signals, a comprehensive framework to understand seasonal rainfall profiles across multiple timescales and geographical regions is still lacking. Here, we formulate a global measure of seasonality and investigate changes in the seasonal rainfall regime across the tropics in the past century. The seasonality index, which captures the effects of both the magnitude and concentration of the rainy season, is highest in the northeast region of Brazil, western and central Africa, northern Australia, and parts of the Caribbean and Southeast Asia (the seasonally dry tropics). Further decomposing rainfall seasonality into its magnitude, duration, and timing components using spectral techniques and information theory, we find marked increase in the interannual variability of seasonality over most of the dry tropics, implying increasing uncertainty in the intensity, duration, and arrival of seasonal rainfall over the past century. We also show that such increase in variability has occurred in conjunction with shifts in the seasonal timing and changes in its overall magnitude. Thus, it is importance to place the analysis of rainfall regimes in these regions into a seasonal context that is most relevant to local ecological and social processes. These changes, if sustained into the next century, will portend significant shifts in the timing of plant activities and ecosystem composition and distribution, with consequences for water and carbon cycling and water resource management in

  5. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2014-01-01

    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  6. Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

    2015-08-01

    The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the

  7. Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Yu, Bofu; Klik, Andreas; Jae Lim, Kyoung; Yang, Jae E; Ni, Jinren; Miao, Chiyuan; Chattopadhyay, Nabansu; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Zabihi, Mohsen; Larionov, Gennady A; Krasnov, Sergey F; Gorobets, Andrey V; Levi, Yoav; Erpul, Gunay; Birkel, Christian; Hoyos, Natalia; Naipal, Victoria; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S; Bonilla, Carlos A; Meddi, Mohamed; Nel, Werner; Al Dashti, Hassan; Boni, Martino; Diodato, Nazzareno; Van Oost, Kristof; Nearing, Mark; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-06-23

    The exposure of the Earth's surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 , with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

  8. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available southwest (Figure 3, node [0;2]). FIG. 3: Average frequency of occurrence of the SOM nodes in TRMM (blue) and FEWS (green). 4. CONCLUSION The bi-modal rainfall distribution over the all-year rainfall region of South Africa as previously determined...

  9. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  10. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul

    2017-08-01

    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index ( SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( \\overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no significant change in the seasonality of rainfall in this region. Regression analysis of \\overline{SI_i} and SI, and longitude and mean individual seasonality index show a significant linear correlation for this area.

  11. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and...... events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year....... and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part...... to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...

  12. Assessing the role of the West Pacific Gradient for global climate teleconnections over the past Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinke, Jens; Browning, Stuart A.; Hoell, Andrew; Goodwin, Ian D.

    2017-04-01

    The Maritime Continent (MC) is the hydrological power house of the planet being collocated within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, where sea surface temperatures (SST) exceed 28°C associated with strong convective rainfall year-round. The convective activity over the Maritime Continent associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is intimately linked to large- scale variations in the climate system and global rainfall-drought patterns. New research has shown that during both El Niño and La Niña events the global impacts in terms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation were more severe when the SST anomalies in the westernmost Pacific (WP; 0-10°N, 130-150°E) were strongly opposing those in the central Pacific (Niño4 region; 5°S-5°N, 160-210°E) than when the west Pacific SST anomalies were near neutral. This temperature gradient is referred to as the West Pacific Gradient (WPG; Hoell and Funk, 2013; Zinke et al., 2015). A positive WPG is when WP SST anomalies are colder than those in the central Pacific, thus El-Niño-like conditions prevail. Recent changes in the WPG towards a negative phase, combined with strong WP warming after the Indo-Pacific climate regime shift of the late 1990s, are driving significant thermal anomalies from the Indonesian seas to the southern coast of Western Australia and along the southwest Pacific (Zinke et al., 2015). The reconstruction of the WPG for the past Millennium might provide novel insights into past tropical climate variability since more long proxy archives are available to assess the WPG than for the Niño3.4 region. WPG variability over the past millennium is reconstructed using an experimental paleoclimate based reanalysis (PaleoR). PaleoR is analogous to modern reanalysis products, but constrained by paleoclimate data instead of meteorological observations (Goodwin et al., 2014). PaleoR employs an offline assimilation scheme where each year (or decade) is individually reconstructed by using information

  13. Conservation of soil organic carbon, biodiversity and the provision of other ecosystem services along climatic gradients in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marks

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial carbon resources are major drivers of development in West Africa. The distribution of these resources co-varies with ecosystem type and rainfall along a strong Northeast-Southwest climatic gradient. Soil organic carbon, a strong indicator of soil quality, has been severely depleted in some areas by human activities, which leads to issues of soil erosion and desertification, but this trend can be altered with appropriate management. There is significant potential to enhance existing soil carbon stores in West Africa, with benefits at the global and local scale, for atmospheric CO2 mitigation as well as supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Three key factors impacting carbon stocks are addressed in this review: climate, biotic factors, and human activities. Climate risks must be considered in a framework of global change, especially in West Africa, where landscape managers have few resources available to adapt to climatic perturbations. Among biotic factors, biodiversity conservation paired with carbon conservation may provide a pathway to sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation is also a global priority with local benefits for ecosystem resilience, biomass productivity, and provisioning services such as foodstuffs. Finally, human management has largely been responsible for reduced carbon stocks, but this trend can be reversed through the implementation of appropriate carbon conservation strategies in the agricultural sector, as shown by multiple studies. Owing to the strong regional climatic gradient, country-level initiatives will need to consider carbon sequestration approaches for multiple ecosystem types. Given the diversity of environments, global policies must be adapted and strategies developed at the national or sub-national levels to improve carbon storage above and belowground. Initiatives of this sort must act locally at farmer scale, and focus on ecosystem services rather than on carbon

  14. Rare earth elements tracing the soil erosion processes on slope surface under natural rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Mingyong; Tan Shuduan; Dang Haishan; Zhang Quanfa

    2011-01-01

    A field experiment using rare earth elements (REEs) as tracers was conducted to investigate soil erosion processes on slope surfaces during rainfall events. A plot of 10 m x 2 m x 0.16 m with a gradient of 20 o (36.4%) was established and the plot was divided into two layers and four segments. Various REE tracers were applied to the different layers and segments to determine sediment dynamics under natural rainfall. Results indicated that sheet erosion accounted for more than 90% of total erosion when the rainfall amount and density was not large enough to generate concentrated flows. Sediment source changed in different sections on the slope surface, and the primary sediment source area tended to move upslope as erosion progressed. In rill erosion, sediment discharge mainly originated from the toe-slope and moved upwards as erosion intensified. The results obtained from this study suggest that multi-REE tracer technique is valuable in understanding the erosion processes and determining sediment sources. - Highlights: → Soil erosion processes with rare earth elements was conducted under natural rainfall. → Experimental setup developed here has seldom implemented in the world. → Sheet erosion is the main erosion type and main contributor to sediment loss. → Sediment source changed in different sections on the slope surface. → The primary sediment source area tended to move upslope as erosion progressed.

  15. Lightning activity with rainfall during El Nino and La Nina events over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinmaker, M. I. R.; Aslam, M. Y.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Chate, D. M.

    2017-10-01

    This paper appraises the association of lightning flash count (FC) with rainfall using the satellite-borne Lightning Imaging Sensor's (LIS) data along with gridded rainfall data (0.5o × 0.5o) for Indian summer monsoon seasons over 10 years (2001-2010). During strong El Nino years, 2002 and 2009, FCs were greater in magnitude by about 26.5 % and 37 %, than the long-term average, respectively, while during weak El Nino year (2004), it was more by 8 %. During the same years, the rainfall was deficient by about 10 % than the long-term average. Similarly, a rise in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over its average value (by about 15 % and 20 %) reduces the ratio of rainfall to FC (RLR) by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and for weak El Nino year (2004), a 6.5 % rise in AOD lowers the RLR by 20 %. Bowen ratio more by 11 % and 17 % of its average value reduces the RLR by 41 % and 44 % for strong El Nino years 2002 and 2009, respectively, and, also, Bowen ratio higher by 8 % for 2004 declines RLR by 20 %. On the other hand, Bowen ratio less by 9 % and 6 % raises the RLR by 19 % and 56 % for moderate La Nina year (2007) and strong La Nina year (2010), respectively. Results for the daily rainfall, AOD and Bowen ratio over Indian regions, are discussed for strong El Nino and La Nina years. Correlations of FC with AOD and Bowen ratio of 0.66 and 0.71, respectively, while, that of FC with ONI of 0.56 indicates numerous (fewer) break days during El Nino (La Nina) years.

  16. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zoccatelli

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  17. Spatial variability of trends in hydrological extremes induced by orographically enhanced rainfall events due to westerly atmospheric circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, L; Drogue, G; Poirier, C; Hoffmann, L

    2005-01-01

    Since the mid 1970s, the number of days with westerly atmospheric circulations has strongly increased during winter months. As a consequence, rainfall totals, rainfall event duration and intensity have been subject to significant positive trends throughout the Mosel river basin. However, the trends identified through the non-parametrical test named Kendall's tau have shown to be spatially varying. The intensity of the trends appears to be directly linked to orographic obstacles that are well known to have a strong influence on average rainfall totals. A direct consequence of the changes having affected winter rainfall under westerly atmospheric circulations on the one hand and the spatial variability of these changes on the other hand, is a spatially varying positive trend in maximum winter streamflow. Thus, even though a clear large-scale change has affected winter rainfall over the past decades, its intensity is either strongly moderated or enhanced by orographic obstacles. The related changes in streamflow are directly dependent on the spatial variability of the changed rainfall characteristics.

  18. Strongly Correlated Topological Insulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-03

    Strongly Correlated Topological Insulators In the past year, the grant was used for work in the field of topological phases, with emphasis on finding...surface of topological insulators. In the past 3 years, we have started a new direction, that of fractional topological insulators. These are materials...in which a topologically nontrivial quasi-flat band is fractionally filled and then subject to strong interactions. The views, opinions and/or

  19. A review of the Southern Oscillation - Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kousky, V. E.; Kagano, M. T.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

    1984-01-01

    The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.

  20. Strong Cosmic Censorship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isenberg, James

    2017-01-01

    The Hawking-Penrose theorems tell us that solutions of Einstein's equations are generally singular, in the sense of the incompleteness of causal geodesics (the paths of physical observers). These singularities might be marked by the blowup of curvature and therefore crushing tidal forces, or by the breakdown of physical determinism. Penrose has conjectured (in his `Strong Cosmic Censorship Conjecture`) that it is generically unbounded curvature that causes singularities, rather than causal breakdown. The verification that ``AVTD behavior'' (marked by the domination of time derivatives over space derivatives) is generically present in a family of solutions has proven to be a useful tool for studying model versions of Strong Cosmic Censorship in that family. I discuss some of the history of Strong Cosmic Censorship, and then discuss what is known about AVTD behavior and Strong Cosmic Censorship in families of solutions defined by varying degrees of isometry, and discuss recent results which we believe will extend this knowledge and provide new support for Strong Cosmic Censorship. I also comment on some of the recent work on ``Weak Null Singularities'', and how this relates to Strong Cosmic Censorship.

  1. A method for predicting monthly rainfall patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    A brief survey is made of previous methods that have been used to predict rainfall trends or drought spells in different parts of the earth. The basic methodologies or theoretical strategies used in these methods are compared with contents of a recent theory of Sun-Weather/Climate links (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987a; 1987b; 1987c) which point towards the possibility of practical climatic predictions. It is shown that not only is the theoretical basis of each of these methodologies or strategies fully incorporated into the above-named theory, but also this theory may be used to develop a technique by which future monthly rainfall patterns can be predicted in further and finer details. We describe the latter technique and then illustrate its workability by means of predictions made on monthly rainfall patterns in some East African meteorological stations. (author). 43 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

  2. Contribution of raindrop impact to the change of soil physical properties and water erosion under semi-arid rainfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaezi, Ali Reza; Ahmadi, Morvarid; Cerdà, Artemi

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion by water is a three-phase process that consists of detachment of soil particles from the soil mass, transportation of detached particles either by raindrop impact or surface water flow, and sedimentation. Detachment by raindrops is a key component of the soil erosion process. However, little information is available on the role of raindrop impact on soil losses in the semi-arid regions where vegetation cover is often poor and does not protect the soil from rainfall. The objective of this study is to determine the contribution of raindrop impact to changes in soil physical properties and soil losses in a semiarid weakly-aggregated agricultural soil. Soil losses were measured under simulated rainfalls of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70mmh -1 , and under two conditions: i) with raindrop impact; and, ii) without raindrop impact. Three replications at each rainfall intensity and condition resulted in a total of 42 microplots of 1m×1.4m installed on a 10% slope according to a randomized complete block design. The contribution of raindrop impact to soil loss was computed using the difference between soil loss with raindrop impact and without raindrop impact at each rainfall intensity. Soil physical properties (aggregate size, bulk density and infiltration rate) were strongly damaged by raindrop impact as rainfall intensity increased. Soil loss was significantly affected by rainfall intensity under both soil surface conditions. The contribution of raindrop impact to soil loss decreased steadily with increasing rainfall intensity. At the lower rainfall intensities (20-30mmh -1 ), raindrop impact was the dominant factor controlling soil loss from the plots (68%) while at the higher rainfall intensities (40-70mmh -1 ) soil loss was mostly affected by increasing runoff discharge. At higher rainfall intensities the sheet flow protected the soil from raindrop impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific - June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran, Sajani; Gadgil, Sulochana; Rajendran, Kavirajan; Varghese, Stella Jes; Kitoh, Akio

    2018-03-01

    Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

  4. Generalized conjugate gradient squared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fokkema, D.R.; Sleijpen, G.L.G. [Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands)

    1994-12-31

    In order to solve non-symmetric linear systems of equations, the Conjugate Gradient Squared (CGS) is a well-known and widely used iterative method. In practice the method converges fast, often twice as fast as the Bi-Conjugate Gradient method. This is what you may expect, since CGS uses the square of the BiCG polynomial. However, CGS may suffer from its erratic convergence behavior. The method may diverge or the approximate solution may be inaccurate. BiCGSTAB uses the BiCG polynomial and a product of linear factors in an attempt to smoothen the convergence. In many cases, this has proven to be very effective. Unfortunately, the convergence of BiCGSTAB may stall when a linear factor (nearly) degenerates. BiCGstab({ell}) is designed to overcome this degeneration of linear factors. It generalizes BiCGSTAB and uses both the BiCG polynomial and a product of higher order factors. Still, CGS may converge faster than BiCGSTAB or BiCGstab({ell}). So instead of using a product of linear or higher order factors, it may be worthwhile to look for other polynomials. Since the BiCG polynomial is based on a three term recursion, a natural choice would be a polynomial based on another three term recursion. Possibly, a suitable choice of recursion coefficients would result in method that converges faster or as fast as CGS, but less erratic. It turns out that an algorithm for such a method can easily be formulated. One particular choice for the recursion coefficients leads to CGS. Therefore one could call this algorithm generalized CGS. Another choice for the recursion coefficients leads to BiCGSTAB. It is therefore possible to mix linear factors and some polynomial based on a three term recursion. This way one may get the best of both worlds. The authors will report on their findings.

  5. Effects of degree correlation on scale-free gradient networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Guijun; Yan Xiaoqing; Ma Weichuan; Luo Yihui; Huang Zhongbing

    2010-01-01

    We have studied the effects of degree correlation on congestion pressure in scale-free gradient networks. It is observed that the jamming coefficient J is insensitive to the degree correlation coefficient r for assortative and strongly disassortative scale-free networks, and J markedly decreases with an increase in r for weakly disassortative scale-free networks. We have also investigated the effects of degree correlation on the topology structure of scale-free gradient networks, and discussed the relation between the topology structure properties and transport efficiency of gradient networks.

  6. Does GPM-based multi-satellite precipitation enhance rainfall estimates over Pakistan and Bolivia arid regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Y.; Satgé, F.; Bonnet, M. P.; Pillco, R.; Molina, J.; Timouk, F.; Roig, H.; Martinez-Carvajal, H., Sr.; Gulraiz, A.

    2016-12-01

    Arid regions are sensitive to rainfall variations which are expressed in the form of flooding and droughts. Unfortunately, those regions are poorly monitored and high quality rainfall estimates are still needed. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission released two new satellite rainfall products named Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation version 6 (GSMaP-v6) bringing the possibility of accurate rainfall monitoring over these countries. This study assessed both products at monthly scale over Pakistan considering dry and wet season over the 4 main climatic zones from 2014 to 2016. With similar climatic conditions, the Altiplano region of Bolivia is considered to quantify the influence of big lakes (Titicaca and Poopó) in rainfall estimates. For comparison, the widely used TRMM-Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43 (TMPA-3B43) version 7 is also involved in the analysis to observe the potential enhancement in rainfall estimate brought by GPM products. Rainfall estimates derived from 110 rain-gauges are used as reference to compare IMERG, GSMaP-v6 and TMPA-3B43 at the 0.1° and 0.25° spatial resolution. Over both regions, IMERG and GSMaP-v6 capture the spatial pattern of precipitation as well as TMPA-3B43. All products tend to over estimates rainfall over very arid regions. This feature is even more marked during dry season. However, during this season, both reference and estimated rainfall remain very low and do not impact seasonal water budget computation. On a general way, IMERG slightly outperforms TMPA-3B43 and GSMaP-v6 which provides the less accurate rainfall estimate. The TMPA-3B43 rainfall underestimation previously found over Lake Titicaca is still observed in IMERG estimates. However, GSMaP-v6 considerably decreases the underestimation providing the most accurate rainfall estimate over the lake. MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature (LST) and ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset reveal strong

  7. Rainfall and earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A GIS-based method for the assessment of landslide susceptibility in a selected area of Qingchuan County in China is proposed by using the back-propagation Artificial Neural Network model (ANN. Landslide inventory was derived from field investigation and aerial photo interpretation. 473 landslides occurred before the Wenchuan earthquake (which were thought as rainfall-induced landslides (RIL in this study, and 885 earthquake-induced landslides (EIL were recorded into the landslide inventory map. To understand the different impacts of rainfall and earthquake on landslide occurrence, we first compared the variations between landslide spatial distribution and conditioning factors. Then, we compared the weight variation of each conditioning factor derived by adjusting ANN structure and factors combination respectively. Last, the weight of each factor derived from the best prediction model was applied to the entire study area to produce landslide susceptibility maps.

    Results show that slope gradient has the highest weight for landslide susceptibility mapping for both RIL and EIL. The RIL model built with four different factors (slope gradient, elevation, slope height and distance to the stream shows the best success rate of 93%; the EIL model built with five different factors (slope gradient, elevation, slope height, distance to the stream and distance to the fault has the best success rate of 98%. Furthermore, the EIL data was used to verify the RIL model and the success rate is 92%; the RIL data was used to verify the EIL model and the success rate is 53%.

  8. Magnetoelectric Transverse Gradient Sensor with High Detection Sensitivity and Low Gradient Noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingji Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We report, theoretically and experimentally, the realization of a high detection performance in a novel magnetoelectric (ME transverse gradient sensor based on the large ME effect and the magnetic field gradient (MFG technique in a pair of magnetically-biased, electrically-shielded, and mechanically-enclosed ME composites having a transverse orientation and an axial separation. The output voltage of the gradient sensor is directly obtained from the transverse MFG-induced difference in ME voltage between the two ME composites and is calibrated against transverse MFGs to give a high detection sensitivity of 0.4–30.6 V/(T/m, a strong common-mode magnetic field noise rejection rate of <−14.5 dB, a small input-output nonlinearity of <10 ppm, and a low gradient noise of 0.16–620 nT/m/ Hz in a broad frequency range of 1 Hz–170 kHz under a small baseline of 35 mm. An analysis of experimental gradient noise spectra obtained in a magnetically-unshielded laboratory environment reveals the domination of the pink (1/f noise, dielectric loss noise, and power-frequency noise below 3 kHz, in addition to the circuit noise above 3 kHz, in the gradient sensor. The high detection performance, together with the added merit of passive and direct ME conversion by the large ME effect in the ME composites, makes the gradient sensor suitable for the passive, direct, and broadband detection of transverse MFGs.

  9. Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

    2015-02-24

    Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

  10. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Operation Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nio, Tomomi; Saito, Susumu; Stocker, Erich; Pawloski, James H.; Murayama, Yoshifumi; Ohata, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe tropical rainfall, which was launched by H-II No. 6 from Tanegashima in Japan at 6:27 JST on November 28, 1997. After the two-month commissioning of TRMM satellite and instruments, the original nominal mission lifetime was three years. In fact, the operations has continued for approximately 17.5 years. This paper provides a summary of the long term operations of TRMM.

  11. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  12. Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θ s - θ r), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process. PMID:24672332

  13. Land cover and rainfall interact to shape waterbird community composition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin E Studds

    Full Text Available Human land cover can degrade estuaries directly through habitat loss and fragmentation or indirectly through nutrient inputs that reduce water quality. Strong precipitation events are occurring more frequently, causing greater hydrological connectivity between watersheds and estuaries. Nutrient enrichment and dissolved oxygen depletion that occur following these events are known to limit populations of benthic macroinvertebrates and commercially harvested species, but the consequences for top consumers such as birds remain largely unknown. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS and structural equation modeling (SEM to understand how land cover and annual variation in rainfall interact to shape waterbird community composition in Chesapeake Bay, USA. The MDS ordination indicated that urban subestuaries shifted from a mixed generalist-specialist community in 2002, a year of severe drought, to generalist-dominated community in 2003, of year of high rainfall. The SEM revealed that this change was concurrent with a sixfold increase in nitrate-N concentration in subestuaries. In the drought year of 2002, waterbird community composition depended only on the direct effect of urban development in watersheds. In the wet year of 2003, community composition depended both on this direct effect and on indirect effects associated with high nitrate-N inputs to northern parts of the Bay, particularly in urban subestuaries. Our findings suggest that increased runoff during periods of high rainfall can depress water quality enough to alter the composition of estuarine waterbird communities, and that this effect is compounded in subestuaries dominated by urban development. Estuarine restoration programs often chart progress by monitoring stressors and indicators, but rarely assess multivariate relationships among them. Estuarine management planning could be improved by tracking the structure of relationships among land cover, water quality, and waterbirds

  14. Colloidal attraction induced by a temperature gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Leonardo, R; Ianni, F; Ruocco, G

    2009-04-21

    Colloidal crystals are of extreme importance for applied research and for fundamental studies in statistical mechanics. Long-range attractive interactions, such as capillary forces, can drive the spontaneous assembly of such mesoscopic ordered structures. However, long-range attractive forces are very rare in the colloidal realm. Here we report a novel strong, long-ranged attraction induced by a thermal gradient in the presence of a wall. By switching the thermal gradient on and off, we can rapidly and reversibly form stable hexagonal 2D crystals. We show that the observed attraction is hydrodynamic in nature and arises from thermally induced slip flow on particle surfaces. We used optical tweezers to measure the force law directly and compare it to an analytical prediction based on Stokes flow driven by Marangoni-like forces.

  15. Color Gradient in the King Type Globular Cluster NGC 7089

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Jong Sohn

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available We use BV CCD images to investigate the reality of the color gradient within a King type globular cluster NGC 7089. Surface photometry shows that there is a strong radial color gradient in the central region of the cluster in the sense of bluer center with the amplitude of -0.39 +/- 0.07 mag/arcsec2 in (B - V. In the outer region of the cluster, however, the radial color gradient shows a reverse case, i.e., redder toward the center. (B - V color profile which was derived from resolved stars in VGC 7089 field also shows a significant color gradient in the central region of the clusters, indicating that lights from the combination of red giant stars and blue horizontal branch stars cause the radial color gradient. Color gradient of the outer region of NGC 7089 may be due to the unresolved background of the cluster. Similar color gradients in the central area of clusters have been previously observed exserved exclusively in highly concentrated systems classified as post core collapse clusters. We caution, however, to confirm the reality of the color gradient from resolved stars, we need more accurate imaging data of the cluster with exceptional seeing condition because the effect of completeness correlates with local density of stars.

  16. Strontium isotopes as tracers to delineate aquifer interactions and the influence of rainfall in the basalt plains of southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiber, Matthias; Webb, John A.; Bennetts, Darren A.

    2009-04-01

    SummaryTo better understand the spatial distribution of groundwater salinisation in western Victoria, southeast Australia, the interactions between a surficial basalt aquifer and an underlying extensive palaeodrainage ('deep lead') system were studied using a multi-disciplinary approach, combining strontium isotope analyses with major ion chemistry and the interpretation of geological and hydrogeological data. The strontium isotopes proved particularly useful in delineating flow paths and hydraulic connections between the two aquifers, which have contrasting 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios. The freshest basalt groundwaters lie beneath volcanoes and have 87Sr/ 86Sr signatures close to the whole-rock strontium isotope ratios of the basalts (˜0.7045), indicating the strong influence of basalt weathering. With increasing distance from the eruption points, basalt groundwaters become progressively more saline and the strontium isotope ratios evolve towards the more radiogenic signatures of local rainfall (0.710-0.711), due to the slow addition of infiltration concentrated by evapotranspiration during its passage through the thick, clay-rich soils developed on the basalt lavas. Overall, the influence of rainwater on the strontium isotope signatures of the basalt groundwater is much greater than that of basaltic weathering, indicating that rainwater can play a greater role in determining groundwater strontium composition than is often realised. Most parts of the palaeodrainage system beneath the basalt are preferentially recharged through the volcanoes, as shown by strong downwards hydraulic gradients and groundwater 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios similar to the least radiogenic basalt groundwaters. However, in the northwestern part, groundwater 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios are closer to those of the source material of the sediments (Palaeozoic bedrock), indicating that here recharge occurs predominantly in the headwaters where the basalts are absent. In the southern and western sections of the palaeodrainage

  17. Gradient Boosting Machines, A Tutorial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey eNatekin

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Gradient boosting machines are a family of powerful machine-learning techniques that have shown considerable success in a wide range of practical applications. They are highly customizable to the particular needs of the application, like being learned with respect to different loss functions. This article gives a tutorial introduction into the methodology of gradient boosting methods. A theoretical information is complemented with many descriptive examples and illustrations which cover all the stages of the gradient boosting model design. Considerations on handling the model complexity are discussed. A set of practical examples of gradient boosting applications are presented and comprehensively analyzed.

  18. Analysis of the variation of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeimetz, Fränz; Garcìa, Javier; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.

    2016-04-01

    In numerous countries of the world (USA, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland,…), the dam safety verifications for extreme floods are realized by referring to the so called Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this PMF is determined based on the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). The PMF estimation is performed with a hydrological simulation model by routing the PMP. The PMP-PMF simulation is normally event based; therefore, if no further information is known, the simulation needs assumptions concerning the initial soil conditions such as saturation or snow cover. In addition, temperature series are also of interest for the PMP-PMF simulations. Temperature values can not only be deduced from temperature measurement but also using the temperature gradient method, the 0°C isothermal altitude can lead to temperature estimations on the ground. For practitioners, the usage of the isothermal altitude for referring to temperature is convenient and simpler because one value can give information over a large region under the assumption of a certain temperature gradient. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events is aimed here and based on meteorological soundings from the two sounding stations Payerne (CH) and Milan (I). Furthermore, hourly rainfall and temperature data are available from 110 pluviometers spread over the Swiss territory. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude is undertaken for different precipitation durations based on the meteorological measurements mentioned above. The results show that on average, the isothermal altitude tends to decrease during the rainfall events and that a correlation between the duration of the altitude loss and the duration of the rainfall exists. A significant difference in altitude loss is appearing when the soundings from Payerne and Milan are compared.

  19. Experimental rainfall-runoff data: Reconsidering the concept of infiltration capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Christoph; Govers, Gerard; Diels, Jan; Leys, Annemie; Clymans, Wim; Putte, An Van den; Valckx, Jan

    2011-03-01

    SummaryMany infiltration models rely on an effective hydraulic conductivity parameter ( Ke) which is often determined in the field from rainfall simulation experiments on small plots. Ke can be defined as the spatially averaged infiltration capacity when the soil is 'field-saturated' and steady state is reached. Then it equals the infiltration rate ( f), provided ponding occurs. When a homogeneous surface is assumed, with negligible ponding depth, Ke is constant and does not vary with rainfall intensity ( r). We developed a drop infiltrometer that allows measuring Ke on small plots under simulated rainfall intensities that vary between experiments. Infiltration experiments were conducted on a winter wheat field in the Belgian Loess Belt and various surface and soil properties were measured. Furthermore, photos were taken of the soil surface during the infiltration experiments for the determination of the inundated surface fraction. The results of the experiments show that Ke is strongly dependent on rainfall intensity. In a statistical approach a dynamic Ke could be estimated with a function of rainfall intensity, tillage treatment, percentage residue cover and bulk density. Observations indicate that microtopography, surface fraction covered by a sedimentary seal and macroporosity interact with rainfall intensity, surface ponding and infiltration. We propose that Ke in physically based infiltration models should either be made dependent on dynamic state variables in a mechanistic way, such as ponding depth and water content or made dependent on rainfall intensity using an empirical relationship. With such adaptations, both surface runoff and erosion models might have more potential to deal with scale effects in runoff generation.

  20. Analysis of the influence of rainfall variables on urban effluents concentrations and fluxes in wet weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Monette, Frédéric; Gasperi, Johnny

    2015-04-01

    Urban rainfall runoff has been a topic of increasing importance over the past years, a result of both the increase in impervious land area arising from constant urban growth and the effects of climate change on urban drainage. The main goal of the present study is to assess and analyze the correlations between rainfall variables and common indicators of urban water quality, namely event mean concentrations (EMCs) and event fluxes (EFs), in order to identify and explain the impacts of each of the main rainfall variables on the generation process of urban pollutants during wet periods. To perform this analysis, runoff from eight summer rainfall events that resulted in combined sewer overflow (CSO) was sampled simultaneously from two distinct catchment areas in order to quantify discharges at the respective outfalls. Pearson statistical analysis of total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand at 5 days (CBOD5), total phosphorus (Ptot) and total kedjal nitrogen (N-TKN) showed significant correlations (ρ = 0.05) between dry antecedent time (DAT) and EMCs on one hand, and between total rainfall (TR) and the volume discharged (VD) during EFs, on the other. These results show that individual rainfall variables strongly affect either EMCs or EFs and are good predictors to consider when selecting variables for statistical modeling of urban runoff quality. The results also show that in a combined sewer network, there is a linear relationship between TSS event fluxes and COD, CBOD5, Ptot, and N-TKN event fluxes; this explains 97% of the variability of these pollutants which adsorb onto TSS during wet weather, which therefore act as tracers. Consequently, the technological solution selected for TSS removal will also lead to a reduction of these pollutants. Given the huge volumes involved, urban runoffs contribute substantially to pollutant levels in receiving water bodies, a situation which, in a climate change context, may

  1. Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

    2018-04-01

    This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

  2. Influence of rainfall spatial variability on rainfall-runoff modelling: Benefit of a simulation approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, I.; Andrieu, H.; Leblois, E.; Janey, N.; Payrastre, O.

    2015-12-01

    No consensus has yet been reached regarding the influence of rainfall spatial variability on runoff modelling at catchment outlets. To eliminate modelling and measurement errors, in addition to controlling rainfall variability and both the characteristics and hydrological behaviour of catchments, we propose to proceed by simulation. We have developed a simulation chain that combines a stream network model, a rainfall simulator and a distributed hydrological model (with four production functions and a distributed transfer function). Our objective here is to use this simulation chain as a simplified test bed in order to better understand the impact of the spatial variability of rainfall forcing. We applied the chain to contrasted situations involving catchments ranging from a few tens to several hundreds of square km2, thus corresponding to urban and peri-urban catchments for which surface runoff constitutes the dominant process. The results obtained confirm that the proposed simulation approach is helpful to better understand the influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment response. We have shown that significant dispersion exists not only between the various simulation scenarios (defined by a rainfall configuration and a catchment configuration), but also within each simulation scenario. These results show that the organisation of rainfall during the study event over the study catchment plays an important role, leading us to examine rainfall variability indexes capable of summarising the influence of rainfall spatial organisation on the catchment response. Thanks to the simulation chain, we have tested the variability indexes of Zoccatelli et al. (2010) and improved them by proposing two other indexes.

  3. Strong Arcwise Connectedness

    OpenAIRE

    Espinoza, Benjamin; Gartside, Paul; Kovan-Bakan, Merve; Mamatelashvili, Ana

    2012-01-01

    A space is `n-strong arc connected' (n-sac) if for any n points in the space there is an arc in the space visiting them in order. A space is omega-strong arc connected (omega-sac) if it is n-sac for all n. We study these properties in finite graphs, regular continua, and rational continua. There are no 4-sac graphs, but there are 3-sac graphs and graphs which are 2-sac but not 3-sac. For every n there is an n-sac regular continuum, but no regular continuum is omega-sac. There is an omega-sac ...

  4. Abortion: Strong's counterexamples fail

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Di Nucci, Ezio

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows that the counterexamples proposed by Strong in 2008 in the Journal of Medical Ethics to Marquis's argument against abortion fail. Strong's basic idea is that there are cases--for example, terminally ill patients--where killing an adult human being is prima facie seriously morally......'s scenarios have some valuable future or admitted that killing them is not seriously morally wrong. Finally, if "valuable future" is interpreted as referring to objective standards, one ends up with implausible and unpalatable moral claims....

  5. Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and australia: potential for seasonal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses whether, the extent to which and why the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) modulates rainfall in Australia and the Maritime Continent. We find a statistically significant time-lagged association between March-to-May (MAM) PMM and September-to-November (SON) rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. The association is largely caused by the contribution of PMM to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Positive (negative) MAM PMM is generally followed by El Niño (La Niña) events in the following SON and December-to-February (DJF), which then suppresses (enhances) rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. The suppression (enhancement) of rainfall is closely tied to the dynamical changes of moisture flux using moisture flux potential and its divergent components. Following the positive (negative) PMM phases, there is a strong moisture flux potential sink (source) in SON over the Maritime Continent and Australia, which act to suppress (enhance) rainfall there. Using MAM PMM as a predictor for SON rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia, the prediction skill is comparable to the North American Multimodel Ensemble project (NMME) forecasts initialized in June over the period 1981-2014. This suggests that MAM PMM may be used as a predictor for SON rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia.

  6. Impact assessment of El Nino and La Nina episodes on local/regional monsoon rainfall in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Sureuder; Rao, V.U.M.; Shigh, Diwan

    2002-08-01

    Large scale atmospheric circulation's and climatic anomalies have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather over many parts of the world. In the present paper an attempt has been made to examine regional monsoon dynamics in relation with El Nino and La Nina episodes. The investigation was earned out for the meteorological sub- division's comprising the areas of Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh in India. The monthly monsoon rainfall data of different locations in the region and corresponding data on El Nino and La Nina episodes for the period of 30 years (1970-99) were used for this investigation. During the El Nino episodes, various locations experienced excess rainfall in monsoon ranged between 11 and 22 percent. Under the influence of La Nina episodes, the probability of excess monsoon rainfall at different locations in the sub-division ranged between 13 and 25 percent. However, many locations viz., Hisar, Bhiwani, Gurgaon, Delhi and Chandigarh received deficient monsoon rainfall which was contrary to the global belief of the association between SST anomalies and rainfall distribution. No significant association was observed between El Nino and La Nina and monsoon rainfall at different locations in the entire sub-division. However, there was a strong relationship between these SST anomalies and all India monsoon rainfall over the period under study (1970-99). (author)

  7. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  8. Increased Spatial Variability and Intensification of Extreme Monsoon Rainfall due to Urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Mathew, Micky; Devanand, Anjana; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2018-03-02

    While satellite data provides a strong robust signature of urban feedback on extreme precipitation; urbanization signal is often not so prominent with station level data. To investigate this, we select the case study of Mumbai, India and perform a high resolution (1 km) numerical study with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for eight extreme rainfall days during 2014-2015. The WRF model is coupled with two different urban schemes, the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SUCM), Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-MUCM). The differences between the WRF-MUCM and WRF-SUCM indicate the importance of the structure and characteristics of urban canopy on modifications in precipitation. The WRF-MUCM simulations resemble the observed distributed rainfall. WRF-MUCM also produces intensified rainfall as compared to the WRF-SUCM and WRF-NoUCM (without UCM). The intensification in rainfall is however prominent at few pockets of urban regions, that is seen in increased spatial variability. We find that the correlation of precipitation across stations within the city falls below statistical significance at a distance greater than 10 km. Urban signature on extreme precipitation will be reflected on station rainfall only when the stations are located inside the urban pockets having intensified precipitation, which needs to be considered in future analysis.

  9. Hydraulic properties for interrill erosion on steep slopes using a portable rainfall simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Seung Sook; Hwang, Yoonhee; Deog Park, Sang; Yun, Minu; Park, Sangyeon

    2017-04-01

    The hydraulic parameters for sheet flow on steep slopes have been not frequently measured because the shallow flow depth and slow flow velocity are difficult to measure. In this study hydraulic values of sheet flow were analyzed to evaluate interrill erosion on steep slopes. A portable rainfall simulator was used to conduct interrill erosion test. The kinetic energy of rainfall simulator was obtained by disdrometer being capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. The sheet flow velocity was determined by the taken time for a dye transferring fixed points using video images. Surface runoff discharge and sediment yield increased with increase of rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and slope steepness. Especially sediment yield was strongly correlated with sheet flow velocity. The maximum velocity of sheet flow was 2.3cm/s under rainfall intensity of 126.8mm/h and slope steepness of 53.2%. The sheet flow was laminar and subcritical flow as the flow Reynolds number and Froude number are respectively the ranges of 10 22 and 0.05 0.25. The roughness coefficient (Manning's n) for sheet flow on steep slopes was relatively large compared to them on the gentle slope. Keywords: Sheet flow velocity; Rainfall simulator; Interrill erosion; Steep slope This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055469).

  10. Selection at the Y chromosome of the African buffalo driven by rainfall.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pim van Hooft

    Full Text Available Selection coefficients at the mammalian Y chromosome typically do not deviate strongly from neutrality. Here we show that strong balancing selection, maintaining intermediate frequencies of DNA sequence variants, acts on the Y chromosome in two populations of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer. Significant correlations exist between sequence variant frequencies and annual rainfall in the years before conception, with five- to eightfold frequency changes over short time periods. Annual rainfall variation drives the balancing of sequence variant frequencies, probably by affecting parental condition. We conclude that sequence variants confer improved male reproductive success after either dry or wet years, making the population composition and dynamics very sensitive to climate change. The mammalian Y chromosome, interacting with ecological processes, may affect male reproductive success much more strongly than previously thought.

  11. Flexible strategies for coping with rainfall variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; Walsum, Van Paul E.V.; Ierland, Van Ekko C.; Kabat, Pavel; Hellegers, Petra J.G.J.

    2016-01-01

    One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for

  12. Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

  13. Coping with rainfall variability in northern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This chapter explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...

  14. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

  15. Comparison of radar data versus rainfall data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa, B; Hromadka, T V; Perez, R

    2015-01-01

    Doppler radar data are increasingly used in rainfall-runoff synthesis studies, perhaps due to radar data availability, among other factors. However, the veracity of the radar data are often a topic of concern. In this paper, three Doppler radar outcomes developed by the United States National Weather Service at three radar sites are examined and compared to actual rain gage data for two separate severe storm events in order to assess accuracy in the published radar estimates of rainfall. Because the subject storms were very intense rainfall events lasting approximately one hour in duration, direct comparisons between the three radar gages themselves can be made, as well as a comparison to rain gage data at a rain gage location subjected to the same storm cells. It is shown that topographic interference with the radar outcomes can be a significant factor leading to differences between radar and rain gage readings, and that care is needed in calibrating radar outcomes using available rain gage data in order to interpolate rainfall estimates between rain gages using the spatial variation observed in the radar readings. The paper establishes and describes•the need for "ground-truthing" of radar data, and•possible errors due to topographic interference.

  16. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The characterisation of rainfall variability, spatially and temporally, is essential for hydrological and ecological analyses. Inherently, this variability is distinctly more obvious in mountainous areas compared to lowlands. The objective of this study was to ascertain if the use of the regression-Kriging technique would provide ...

  17. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The rain gauge network of Kerala, whose data for. 1950–1990 was used in this study, is shown in fig- ure 2. ... gauge stations and north Kerala has 39 rainfall stations. The details of the stations are given in table 1. ..... pressure systems that move into the Bay of Bengal. (Das 1995). The tapering shape of the peninsula.

  18. Rainfall erosivity in Brazil: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we review the erosivity studies conducted in Brazil to verify the quality and representativeness of the results generated and to provide a greater understanding of the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) in Brazil. We searched the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar datab...

  19. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-10-04

    Oct 4, 2016 ... deep ravines (Scott et al., 2000; Briggs, 2008). The Cathedral. Peak research catchments fall within the summer rainfall region of South Africa, thus the area experiences wet, humid summers and cold, dry winters (Everson et al., 1998).The mean annual precipitation (MAP) for the area is approximately 1 400 ...

  20. Searching regional rainfall homogeneity using atmospheric fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Chiaravalloti, Francesco

    2013-03-01

    The correct identification of homogeneous areas in regional rainfall frequency analysis is fundamental to ensure the best selection of the probability distribution and the regional model which produce low bias and low root mean square error of quantiles estimation. In an attempt at rainfall spatial homogeneity, the paper explores a new approach that is based on meteo-climatic information. The results are verified ex-post using standard homogeneity tests applied to the annual maximum daily rainfall series. The first step of the proposed procedure selects two different types of homogeneous large regions: convective macro-regions, which contain high values of the Convective Available Potential Energy index, normally associated with convective rainfall events, and stratiform macro-regions, which are characterized by low values of the Q vector Divergence index, associated with dynamic instability and stratiform precipitation. These macro-regions are identified using Hot Spot Analysis to emphasize clusters of extreme values of the indexes. In the second step, inside each identified macro-region, homogeneous sub-regions are found using kriging interpolation on the mean direction of the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux. To check the proposed procedure, two detailed examples of homogeneous sub-regions are examined.

  1. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S; 120. ◦. –160. ◦. E) are useful to predict TNDC during post-monsoon (October–. December) season. The influence of ENSO (El-Nino. Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian ... 1984). Following this methodology, the correlations with the first differences (current season minus previous season) in rainfall and TNDC are used in.

  2. A strong comeback

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marier, D.

    1992-01-01

    This article presents the results of a financial rankings survey which show a strong economic activity in the independent energy industry. The topics of the article include advisor turnover, overseas banks, and the increase in public offerings. The article identifies the top project finance investors for new projects and restructurings and rankings for lenders

  3. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markonis, Y.; Batelis, S. C.; Dimakos, Y.; Moschou, E.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940-2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.

  4. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  5. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocherginskaya, S.A.; Cann, I.K.O.; Mackie, R.I.

    2005-01-01

    It is worthwhile considering that only some 30 species make up the bulk of the bacterial population in human faeces at any one time based on the classical cultivation-based approach. The situation in the rumen is similar. Thus, it is practical to focus on specific groups of interest within the complex community. These may be the predominant or the most active species, specific physiological groups or readily identifiable (genetic) clusters of phylogenetically related organisms. Several 16S rDNA fingerprinting techniques can be invaluable for selecting and monitoring sequences or phylogenetic groups of interest and are described below. Over the past few decades, considerable attention was focussed on the identification of pure cultures of microbes on the basis of genetic polymorphisms of DNA encoding rRNA such as ribotyping, amplified fragment length polymorphism and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA. However, many of these methods require prior cultivation and are less suitable for use in analysis of complex mixed populations although important in describing cultivated microbial diversity in molecular terms. Much less attention was given to molecular characterization of complex communities. In particular, research into diversity and community structure over time has been revolutionized by the advent of molecular fingerprinting techniques for complex communities. Denaturing or temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE/TGGE) methods have been successfully applied to the analysis of human, pig, cattle, dog and rodent intestinal populations

  6. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  7. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  8. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

    2016-06-01

    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  9. Changing rainfall and humidity within Southeast Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert Kennedy

    2015-01-01

    Southeast Texas houses a precipitation transition zone between drier conditions to the North and West and some of the wettest parts of the continental U.S. to the East. The Region has seen an increase in its reported normal annual precipitation totals in recent decades. In order to determine if the additional rainfall has been influenced by warming temperatures or is within the variability of the State's long-term drought cycles, several analyses were performed on historical climate data. The analyses answered several questions: Have global and regional climate change models predicted precipitation increases in Southeast Texas and are future increases expected? Do historical monthly precipitation totals at various sites in the region provide clear trends of wetter conditions that can be discerned from long-term drought cycles? Are rainfall patterns changing with less frequent, heavier rain events? Do the reported increases in annual rainfall actually lead to wetter conditions in the region? Climate models have not predicted larger annual average precipitation totals nor do they forecast increases for Southeast Texas. While recent decades may have seen more rain relative to earlier periods, a combined analysis of observation stations across different parts of the Region shows that long-term trends are dependent on when the data is selected relative to a drought cycle. While some stations show larger amounts of rain falling during fewer days, these trends do not hold across all periods. An examination of hourly data does not show an increase in extreme rainfall events or a decrease in the number of hours during which rain has fallen. Even though rainfall has not decreased, average relative humidity has fallen. This suggests that the area is drying even with steady or increasing amounts of rain.

  10. Characterization of gradient control systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cortés, Jorge; van der Schaft, Arjan; Crouch, Peter E.

    2005-01-01

    Given a general nonlinear affine control system with outputs and a torsion-free affine connection defined on its state space, we investigate the gradient realization problem: we give necessary and sufficient conditions under which the control system can be written as a gradient control system

  11. Sobolev gradients and differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Neuberger, J W

    2010-01-01

    A Sobolev gradient of a real-valued functional on a Hilbert space is a gradient of that functional taken relative to an underlying Sobolev norm. This book shows how descent methods using such gradients allow a unified treatment of a wide variety of problems in differential equations. For discrete versions of partial differential equations, corresponding Sobolev gradients are seen to be vastly more efficient than ordinary gradients. In fact, descent methods with these gradients generally scale linearly with the number of grid points, in sharp contrast with the use of ordinary gradients. Aside from the first edition of this work, this is the only known account of Sobolev gradients in book form. Most of the applications in this book have emerged since the first edition was published some twelve years ago. What remains of the first edition has been extensively revised. There are a number of plots of results from calculations and a sample MatLab code is included for a simple problem. Those working through a fair p...

  12. Mechanism of shallow disrupted slide induced by extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igwe, O.; Fukuoka, H.

    2010-12-01

    On July 16, 2010, extreme rainfall attacked western Japan and it caused very intense rainfall in Shobara city, Hiroshima prefecture, Japan. This rainfall induced hundreds of shallow disrupted slides and many of those became debris flows. One of this debris flows attacked a house standing in front of the exit of a channel, and claimed a resident’s life. Western Japan had repeatedly similar disasters in the past. Last event took place from July 19 to 26, 2009, when western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes. Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. One of the unusual feature of both disaster was that landslides are distributed in very narrow area. In the 2010 Shobara city disaster, all of the landslides were distributed in 5 km x 3 km, and in the 2009 Hofu city disaster, most devastated zone of landslides were 10 km x 5 km. Rain radars of Meteorological Agency of Government of Japan detected the intense rainfall, however, the spatial resolution is usually larger than 5 km and the disaster area is too small to predict landslides nor issue warning. Furthermore, it was found that the growth rate of baby clouds was very quick. The geology of both areas are rhyolite (Shobara) and granite (Hofu), so the areal assessment of landslide hazard should be prepared before those intense rainfall will come. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called “masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except

  13. The geomagnetic field gradient tensor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kotsiaros, Stavros; Olsen, Nils

    2012-01-01

    We develop the general mathematical basis for space magnetic gradiometry in spherical coordinates. The magnetic gradient tensor is a second rank tensor consisting of 3 × 3 = 9 spatial derivatives. Since the geomagnetic field vector B is always solenoidal (∇ · B = 0) there are only eight independent...... tensor elements. Furthermore, in current free regions the magnetic gradient tensor becomes symmetric, further reducing the number of independent elements to five. In that case B is a Laplacian potential field and the gradient tensor can be expressed in series of spherical harmonics. We present properties...... of the magnetic gradient tensor and provide explicit expressions of its elements in terms of spherical harmonics. Finally we discuss the benefit of using gradient measurements for exploring the Earth’s magnetic field from space, in particular the advantage of the various tensor elements for a better determination...

  14. Impact of rainfall pattern on interrill erosion process

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of rainfall pattern on the interrill erosion process is not fully understood despite its importance. Systematic rainfall simulation experiments involving different rain intensities, stages, intensity sequences, and surface cover conditions were conducted to investigate the impacts of rain...

  15. Strong Electroweak Symmetry Breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstein, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    Models of spontaneous breaking of electroweak symmetry by a strong interaction do not have fine tuning/hierarchy problem. They are conceptually elegant and use the only mechanism of spontaneous breaking of a gauge symmetry that is known to occur in nature. The simplest model, minimal technicolor with extended technicolor interactions, is appealing because one can calculate by scaling up from QCD. But it is ruled out on many counts: inappropriately low quark and lepton masses (or excessive FCNC), bad electroweak data fits, light scalar and vector states, etc. However, nature may not choose the minimal model and then we are stuck: except possibly through lattice simulations, we are unable to compute and test the models. In the LHC era it therefore makes sense to abandon specific models (of strong EW breaking) and concentrate on generic features that may indicate discovery. The Technicolor Straw Man is not a model but a parametrized search strategy inspired by a remarkable generic feature of walking technicolor,...

  16. Bias adjustment of infrared-based rainfall estimation using Passive Microwave satellite rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbalaee, Negar; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Braithwaite, Dan

    2017-04-01

    This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained.

  17. Plasmons in strong superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldo, M.; Ducoin, C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a study of the possible plasmon excitations that can occur in systems where strong superconductivity is present. In these systems the plasmon energy is comparable to or smaller than the pairing gap. As a prototype of these systems we consider the proton component of Neutron Star matter just below the crust when electron screening is not taken into account. For the realistic case we consider in detail the different aspects of the elementary excitations when the proton, electron components are considered within the Random-Phase Approximation generalized to the superfluid case, while the influence of the neutron component is considered only at qualitative level. Electron screening plays a major role in modifying the proton spectrum and spectral function. At the same time the electron plasmon is strongly modified and damped by the indirect coupling with the superfluid proton component, even at moderately low values of the gap. The excitation spectrum shows the interplay of the different components and their relevance for each excitation modes. The results are relevant for neutrino physics and thermodynamical processes in neutron stars. If electron screening is neglected, the spectral properties of the proton component show some resemblance with the physical situation in high-T c superconductors, and we briefly discuss similarities and differences in this connection. In a general prospect, the results of the study emphasize the role of Coulomb interaction in strong superconductors.

  18. Gradient zone boundary control in salt gradient solar ponds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, John R. (Downers Grove, IL)

    1984-01-01

    A method and apparatus for suppressing zone boundary migration in a salt gradient solar pond includes extending perforated membranes across the pond at the boundaries, between the convective and non-convective zones, the perforations being small enough in size to prevent individual turbulence disturbances from penetrating the hole, but being large enough to allow easy molecular diffusion of salt thereby preventing the formation of convective zones in the gradient layer. The total area of the perforations is a sizable fraction of the membrane area to allow sufficient salt diffusion while preventing turbulent entrainment into the gradient zone.

  19. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria

    2017-04-01

    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  20. Trends in Extreme Rainfall Events in Tasmania, Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Orpita U. Laz; Ataur Rahman

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, a...

  1. Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mazvimavi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing concern in southern Africa about the possible decline of rainfall as a result of global warming. Some studies concluded that average rainfall in Zimbabwe had declined by 10% or 100 mm during the last 100 years. This paper investigates the validity of the assumption that rainfall is declining in Zimbabwe. Time series of annual rainfall, and total rainfall for (a the early part of the rainy season, October-November-December (OND, and (b the mid to end of the rainy season, January-February-March (JFM are analysed for the presence of trends using the Mann-Kendall test, and for the decline or increase during years with either high or low rainfall using quantile regression analysis. The Pettitt test has also been utilized to examine the possible existence of change or break-points in the rainfall time series. The analysis has been done for 40 rainfall stations with records starting during the 1892–1940 period and ending in 2000, and representative of all the rainfall regions.

    The Mann-Kendal test did not identify a significant trend at all the 40 stations, and therefore there is no proof that the average rainfall at each of these stations has changed. Quantile regression analysis revealed a decline in annual rainfall less than the tenth percentile at only one station, and increasing of rainfall greater than the ninetieth percentile at another station. All the other stations had no changes over time in both the low and high rainfall at the annual interval. Climate change effects are therefore not yet statistically significant within time series of total seasonal and annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. The general perception about declining rainfall is likely due to the presence of multidecadal variability characterized by bunching of years with above (e.g. 1951–1958, 1973–1980 and below (e.g. 1959–1972, 1982–1994 average rainfall.

  2. Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Murray, Sheena; Riosmena, Fernando

    2013-12-01

    In many rural regions of developing countries, natural resource dependency means changes in climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When environmentally-based livelihood options are constrained, migration can become an important adaptive strategy. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we model U.S. emigration from rural communities as related to community, household and climate factors. The results suggest that households subjected to recent drought conditions are far more likely to send a U.S. migrant, but only in communities with strong migration histories. In regions lacking such social networks, rainfall deficits actually reduce migration propensities, perhaps reflecting constraints in the ability to engage in migration as a coping strategy. Policy implications emphasize diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change.

  3. Intra-seasonal oscillations associated with Indian Ocean warm pool and summer monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Nisha, P.G.; Sathe, P.V.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    and SST at the East Coast by 20 to 30 days, the coefficient of correlation 8 did not support a strong relationship. The OLR, again failed to support the 20 to 30 days lead showed by SST and WS. Strong and significant relationships between rainfall... supports high OLR with the same phase lag. Therefore the difference in phase lag between OLR and rainfall is anticipated and is in line with the argument that a reversal of relationship is expected with the same 20 to 30 days phase lag to support...

  4. Soil seal development under simulated rainfall: Structural, physical and hydrological dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenise, Elena; Simmons, Robert W.; Ahn, Sujung; Garbout, Amin; Doerr, Stefan H.; Mooney, Sacha J.; Sturrock, Craig J.; Ritz, Karl

    2018-01-01

    contrasting behaviour was related to different dynamics and processes of seal formation which depended on the soil properties. The impact of rainfall-induced surface sealing on the hydrological behaviour of soil (as represented by WDTP and Kun) was rapid and substantial: an average 60% reduction in Kun occurred for all soils between 2 and 9 min rainfall, and water repellent surfaces were identified for SZL and ZCL. This highlights that the condition of the immediate surface of agricultural soils involving rainfall-induced structural seals has a strong impact in the overall ability of soil to function as water reservoir.

  5. Soil seal development under simulated rainfall: Structural, physical and hydrological dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenise, Elena; Simmons, Robert W; Ahn, Sujung; Garbout, Amin; Doerr, Stefan H; Mooney, Sacha J; Sturrock, Craig J; Ritz, Karl

    2018-01-01

    . This contrasting behaviour was related to different dynamics and processes of seal formation which depended on the soil properties. The impact of rainfall-induced surface sealing on the hydrological behaviour of soil (as represented by WDTP and K un ) was rapid and substantial: an average 60% reduction in K un occurred for all soils between 2 and 9 min rainfall, and water repellent surfaces were identified for SZL and ZCL. This highlights that the condition of the immediate surface of agricultural soils involving rainfall-induced structural seals has a strong impact in the overall ability of soil to function as water reservoir.

  6. Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather

  7. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  8. Rainfall interception of three trees in Oakland, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qingfu Xiao; E. Gregory McPherson

    2011-01-01

    A rainfall interception study was conducted in Oakland, California to determine the partitioning of rainfall and the chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, and stemflow. Rainfall interception measurements were conducted on a gingko (Ginkgo biloba) (13.5 m tall deciduous tree), sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) (8...

  9. Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall. ≥ 125mm) over Orissa during ...

  10. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... a logical relationship with one and two days ago flow rate and one, two and three days ago rainfall values. ... back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) to simulate rainfall-runoff process for two sub-basins of ... [6] used ANN and fuzzy logic for predicting event based rainfall runoff and tested these.

  11. Effect of rainfall variability on grassland herbage production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Even though rainfall amount influences herbage production, there is a wide range outside which there can be depression of forage dry matter yield on the Accra plains. Low rainfall amount does not seem to depress livestock numbers but may affect the performance of individual animals. However, very heavy rainfall may ...

  12. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores ...

  13. Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Animal population dynamics can be driven by rainfall variability through its influence on habitat suitability, availability and nutritional sufficiency of forage. To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. Over a 15-year period, monthly ...

  14. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    suggests that rainfall needs to be measured with a much higher spatial resolution (Jensen and Pedersen, 2004). This paper evaluates the impact of using high-resolution rainfall information from weather radar compared to the conventional single gauge approach. The radar rainfall in three different...

  15. Variations in the Statistical Measures of Mean Rainfall | Egbuniwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall records are required for planning and development of water resources projects. Long term averages of rainfall are often needed. Decisions often have to be made with short term records, as long term rainfall records are not available for most parts of Nigeria. This study describes variations in some statistical ...

  16. Cascade rainfall disaggregation application in U.S. Central Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourly rainfall are increasingly used in complex, process-based simulations of the environment. Long records of daily rainfall are common, but long continuous records of hourly rainfall are rare and must be developed. A Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model is proposed to disaggregate observed d...

  17. Rainfall Variability and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Amhara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Surprisingly, however, the relationships between rainfall variability and fluctuations in agricultural production at regional and sub-regional scales have not been studied in detail. The objective of this study is to analyze rainfall variability and trends, and examine vulnerability of food grain production to rainfall variability in the ...

  18. Effect of rainfall on cropping pattern in mid Himalayan region ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis of effect of rainfall during the last 20 years is needed to evaluate cropping pattern in the rain-fed region. In this study, trends in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall of district of Himachal Pradesh in India over the past 20 years were examined. The annual rainfall varies from 863.3 to 1470.0 mm. During the ...

  19. Investigation of the influence of Atlantic ocean on rainfall variability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The SVD analysis on the anomalous JJAS rainfall and anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Atlantic Ocean reveals two dominant coupled modes. The first couple mode that dominates the covariability between the anomalous rainfall and the SST reveals positive covariability between anomalous rainfall in ...

  20. The changing rainfall pattern and its implication for flood frequency ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study deals with analysis of recent changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall and their implication for flood frequency in Makurdi. Data on extreme daily rainfall, evapotranspiration and flood occurrences were collected for analysis. The annual rainfall was analysed for trends using spearman rank correlation ...

  1. Estimating Rainfall in Rodrigues by Geostatistics: (b) Application ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The previous paper described the kriging method and its possible applications. This paper checks whether kriging may be used to estimate rainfall. Four test stations were selected in Rodrigues. Rainfall data from surrounding stations were used to estimate rainfall at these stations, after first establishing a suitable ...

  2. A comparison of spatial rainfall estimation techniques: a case study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Many hydrological models for watershed management and planning require rainfall as an input in a continuous format. This study analyzed four different rainfall interpolation techniques in Nyando river basin, Kenya. Interpolation was done for a period of 30 days using 19 rainfall stations. Two geostatistical interpolation ...

  3. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to such activities. ... puted differ from that of normal rainfall values reported by IMD as the length of the data record differs for .... sharp decrease in the rainfall value corresponding to the fall in elevation. It can be inferred that, the rise in the ...

  4. Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a given amount of rain occurs is important because heavier rainfall leads to greater runoff, greater soil erosion and less infiltration into the water table. A knowledge of rainfall intensity therefore becomes. Keywords. Rainfall intensity; Kerala; cumulative distribution. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 116, No. 5, October 2007, pp. 451–463.

  5. Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

  6. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  7. Soil and periphyton indicators of anthropogenic water-quality changes in a rainfall-driven wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, P.V.

    2011-01-01

    Surface soils and periphyton communities were sampled across an oligotrophic, soft-water wetland to document changes associated with pulsed inputs of nutrient- and mineral-rich canal drainage waters. A gradient of canal-water influence was indicated by the surface-water specific conductance, which ranged between 743 and 963 ??S cm-1 in the canals to as low as 60 ??S cm-1 in the rainfall-driven wetland interior. Changes in soil chemistry and periphyton taxonomic composition across this gradient were described using piecewise regressions models. The greatest increase in soil phosphorus (P) concentration occurred at sites closest to the canal while soil mineral (sulfur, calcium) concentrations increased most rapidly at the lower end of the gradient. Multiple periphyton shifts occurred at the lower end of the gradient and included; (1) a decline in desmids and non-desmid filamentous chlorophytes, and their replacement by a diatom-dominated community; (2) the loss of soft-water diatom indicator species and their replacement by hard-water species. Increased dominance by cyanobacteria and eutrophic diatom indicators occurred closer to the canals. Soil and periphyton changes indicated four zones of increasing canal influence across the wetland: (1) a zone of increasing mineral concentrations where soft-water taxa remained dominant; (2) a transition towards hard-water, oligotrophic diatoms as mineral concentrations increased further; (3) a zone of dominance by these hard-water species; (4) a zone of rapidly increasing P concentrations and dominance by eutrophic taxa. In contrast to conclusions drawn from routine water-chemistry monitoring, measures of chemical and biological change presented here indicate that most of this rainfall-driven peatland receives some influence from canal discharges. These changes are multifaceted and induced by shifts in multiple chemical constituents. ?? 2010 US Government.

  8. Geothermal gradient drilling, north-central Cascades of Oregon, 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Youngquist, W.

    1980-01-01

    A geothermal gradient drilling program was conducted on the western flank of the north-central Cascade Mountains in Oregon. Six wells were drilled during this program, although in effect seven were drilled, as two wells were drilled at site 3, the second well, however, actually going to a lesser depth than the first. Three of the wells (3, 4, and 5) were drilled in areas which topographically are subject to strong throughflows of ground water. None of these wells reached the regional water table, and all showed essentially isothermal geothermal gradients. The single well which was started essentially at the water table (well 6) shows a linear temperature rise with depth essentially from the top of the well bore. Well No. 2 shows an isothermal gradient down to the level of the regional water table and then shows a linear gradient of about 70/sup 0/C/km from the regional water table to total depth.

  9. Comparative Studies of High-Gradient Rf and Dc Breakdowns

    CERN Document Server

    Kovermann, Jan Wilhelm; Wuensch, Walter

    2010-01-01

    The CLIC project is based on normal-conducting high-gradient accelerating structures with an average accelerating gradient of 100 MV/m. The maximum achievable gradient in these structures is limited by the breakdown phenomenon. The physics of breakdowns is not yet fully understood quantitatively. A full knowledge could have strong impact on the design, material choice and construction of rf structures. Therefore, understanding breakdowns has great importance to reaching a gradient of 100MV/m with an acceptable breakdown probability. This thesis addresses the physics underlying the breakdown effect, focusing on a comparison of breakdowns in rf structures and in a dc spark setup. The dc system is simpler, easier to benchmark against simulations, with a faster turnaround time, but the relationship to rf breakdown must be established. To do so, an experimental approach based on optical diagnostics and electrical measurements methods was made. Following an introduction into the CLIC project, a general theoretical ...

  10. Strong-coupling approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, R.B.

    1984-03-01

    Standard path-integral techniques such as instanton calculations give good answers for weak-coupling problems, but become unreliable for strong-coupling. Here we consider a method of replacing the original potential by a suitably chosen harmonic oscillator potential. Physically this is motivated by the fact that potential barriers below the level of the ground-state energy of a quantum-mechanical system have little effect. Numerically, results are good, both for quantum-mechanical problems and for massive phi 4 field theory in 1 + 1 dimensions. 9 references, 6 figures

  11. Strong interaction and QFD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebata, T.

    1981-01-01

    With an assumed weak multiplet structure for bosonic hadrons, which is consistent with the ΔI = 1/2 rule, it is shown that the strong interaction effective hamiltonian is compatible with the weak SU(2) x U(1) gauge transformation. Especially the rho-meson transforms as a triplet under SU(2)sub(w), and this is the origin of the rho-photon analogy. It is also shown that the existence of the non-vanishing Cabibbo angle is a necessary condition for the absence of the exotic hadrons. (orig.)

  12. Improving the Quality of Extreme Precipitation Estimates Using Satellite Passive Microwave Rainfall Retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkovic, Veljko

    Satellite rainfall estimates are invaluable in assessing global precipitation. As a part of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a constellation of orbiting sensors, dominated by passive microwave imagers, provides a full coverage of the planet approximately every 2-3 hours. Several decades of development have resulted in passive microwave rainfall retrievals that are indispensable in addressing global precipitation climatology. However, this prominent achievement is often overshadowed by the retrieval's performance at finer spatial and temporal scales, where large variability in cloud morphology poses an obstacle for accurate rainfall measurements. This is especially true over land, where rainfall estimates are based on an observed mean relationship between high frequency (e.g., 89 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) depression (i.e., the ice-scattering signature) and rainfall rate. In the first part of this study, an extreme precipitation event that caused historical flooding over south-east Europe is analyzed using the GPM constellation. Performance of the rainfall retrieval is evaluated against ground radar and gage reference. It is concluded that satellite observations fully address the temporal evolution of the event but greatly underestimate total rainfall accumulation (by factor of 2.5). A primary limitation of the rainfall algorithm is found to be its inability to recognize variability in precipitating system structure. This variability is closely related to the structure of the precipitation regime and the large-scale environment. To address this influence of rainfall physics on the overall retrieval bias, the second part of this study utilizes TRMM radar (PR) and radiometer (TMI) observations to first confirm that the Tb-to-rain-rate relationship is governed by the amount of ice in the atmospheric column. Then, using the Amazon and Central African regions as testbeds, it demonstrates that the amount of ice aloft is strongly linked to a

  13. Development and application of artificial rainfall device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Xiaomei; Li Zhaolin; Jia Xue; Tadatoshi Yamamoto; Shinichi Takebe

    2000-01-01

    An artificial sprinkling simulation device was designed and developed to be used for radioactive nuclides migration tests. In this device water drops are sprinkled through medical syringe needles which vibrate along a circle. After several year operation at the field test site, it was demonstrated that this device is stable and sprinkling homogeneous, with the rainfall intensity from 2 mm/h to 100 mm/h and the low limit of 2 mm/h. Compared with spraying nozzle, it is easy to control the rainfall quantity and sprinkling area, and the evaporation loss is small. The device can meet the requirement of radioactive nuclide migration test and may also be used for other purpose

  14. Strong Coupling Holography

    CERN Document Server

    Dvali, Gia

    2009-01-01

    We show that whenever a 4-dimensional theory with N particle species emerges as a consistent low energy description of a 3-brane embedded in an asymptotically-flat (4+d)-dimensional space, the holographic scale of high-dimensional gravity sets the strong coupling scale of the 4D theory. This connection persists in the limit in which gravity can be consistently decoupled. We demonstrate this effect for orbifold planes, as well as for the solitonic branes and string theoretic D-branes. In all cases the emergence of a 4D strong coupling scale from bulk holography is a persistent phenomenon. The effect turns out to be insensitive even to such extreme deformations of the brane action that seemingly shield 4D theory from the bulk gravity effects. A well understood example of such deformation is given by large 4D Einstein term in the 3-brane action, which is known to suppress the strength of 5D gravity at short distances and change the 5D Newton's law into the four-dimensional one. Nevertheless, we observe that the ...

  15. Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

  16. Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

  17. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Badsberg Larsen, Anders

    2017-09-01

    Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads to a large number of projected series. In order to evaluate and select the rainfall series with matching statistical properties as the key target projections, an extensive evaluation procedure is developed.

  18. Environmental Temperature Affects Prevalence of Blood Parasites of Birds on an Elevation Gradient: Implications for Disease in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamora-Vilchis, Itzel; Williams, Stephen E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

    2012-01-01

    Background The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. Methodology/Principal Findings We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma) in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. Conclusions/Significance Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change. PMID:22723966

  19. Environmental temperature affects prevalence of blood parasites of birds on an elevation gradient: implications for disease in a warming climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itzel Zamora-Vilchis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change.

  20. Trend analysis of long-term rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio de Oliveira Sanches

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the Pampas Region in the southwest of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, there are areas that show fragility in relation to soil and climatic characteristics. The sandy areas of this region have attracted special attention in the recent decades due to historical, socio economic and environmental issues. An increase in the amount of sand, or “sandization”, occurred due to natural phenomena such as rainfall and wind. Therefore, the sandization process could be influenced by an increase of precipitation in the area. The goal of this work was to analyze precipitation during different time periods in Alegrete, Rio Grande do Sul, from 1928 to 2009 in order to identify evidence of changes in rainfall behavior. Rainfall data from the Brazilian National Water Agency (Portuguese acronym ANA provided by the system hidroweb (http://hidroweb.ana.gov.br were analyzed. After the data were organized on total monthly, trimestral and annual values, they were analyzed for their linear trend over time. The Mann-Kendall test was used to quantitatively evaluate positive and negative trends; however, the data did not provide evidence of climatic changes, but rather of normal random weather events during the time period studied.

  1. Runoff generation in a Mediterranean semi-arid landscape: Thresholds, scale, rainfall and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Fabian; Schmidt, Sebastian; Sauter, Martin; Lange, Jens

    2016-04-01

    Surface runoff acts as an integrated response of catchment characteristics and hydrological processes. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, a lack of runoff data has hindered a better understanding of runoff generation processes on the catchment scale, despite the importance of surface runoff as a water resource or flood hazard. Our main aim was to identify and explain differences in catchment runoff reactions across a variety of scales. Over a period of five years, we observed runoff in ephemeral streams of seven watersheds with sizes between 3 and 129 km2. Landuse and surface cover types (share of vegetation, bare soil and rock outcrops) were derived from aerial images by objective classification techniques. Using data from a dense rainfall network we analysed the effects of scale, catchment properties and aridity on runoff generation. Thereby we extracted rainfall and corresponding runoff events from our time-series to calculate event based rainfall characteristics and catchment runoff coefficients. Soil moisture observations provided additional information on antecedent moisture conditions, infiltration characteristics and the evolution of saturated areas. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that the proportion of Hortonian overland flow increases with aridity, we found that in our area the largest share (> 95 %) of runoff is generated by saturation excess overland flow in response to long lasting, rainfall events of high amount. This was supported by a strong correlation between event runoff and precipitation totals. Similar rainfall thresholds (50 mm) for runoff generation were observed in all investigated catchments. No scale effects on runoff coefficients were found; instead we identified up to three-fold runoff coefficients in catchments with larger extension of arid areas, higher percentage of rock outcrops and urbanization. Comparing two headwater catchments with noticeable differences in extent of olive orchards, no difference in runoff generation was

  2. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF EROSIVITY FACTOR FOR CAMERON HIGHLAND, PAHANG, MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Taofeeq Sholagberu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff is the active agent of soil erosion which often resulted in land degradation and water quality deterioration. Its aggressiveness to induce erosion is usually termed as rainfall erosivity index or factor (R. R-factor is one of the factors to be parameterized in the evaluation of soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its reversed versions (USLE/RUSLE. The computation of accurate R-factor for a particular watershed requires high temporal resolution rainfall (pluviograph data with less than 30-minutes intensities for at least 20 yrs, which is available only in a few regions of the world. As a result, various simplified models have been proposed by researchers to evaluate R-factor using readily available daily, monthly or annual precipitation data. This study is thus aimed at estimating R-factor and to establish an approximate relationship between R-factor and rainfall for subsequent usage in the estimation of soil loss in Cameron highlands watershed. The results of the analysis showed that the least and peak (critical R-factors occurred in the months of January and April with 660.82 and 2399.18 MJ mm ha-1 h-1year-1 respectively. Also, it was observed that erosivity power starts to increase from the month of January through April before started falling in the month of July. The monthly and annual peaks (critical periods may be attributed to increased rainfall amount due to climate change which in turn resulted to increased aggressiveness of rains to cause erosion in the study area. The correlation coefficient of 0.985 showed that there was a strong relationship rainfall and R-factor.

  3. Strong spin-photon coupling in silicon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samkharadze, N; Zheng, G; Kalhor, N; Brousse, D; Sammak, A; Mendes, U C; Blais, A; Scappucci, G; Vandersypen, L M K

    2018-03-09

    Long coherence times of single spins in silicon quantum dots make these systems highly attractive for quantum computation, but how to scale up spin qubit systems remains an open question. As a first step to address this issue, we demonstrate the strong coupling of a single electron spin and a single microwave photon. The electron spin is trapped in a silicon double quantum dot, and the microwave photon is stored in an on-chip high-impedance superconducting resonator. The electric field component of the cavity photon couples directly to the charge dipole of the electron in the double dot, and indirectly to the electron spin, through a strong local magnetic field gradient from a nearby micromagnet. Our results provide a route to realizing large networks of quantum dot-based spin qubit registers. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  4. Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

    2018-03-01

    Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo

  5. Strain gradients in epitaxial ferroelectrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalan, G.; Noheda, B.; McAneney, J.; Sinnamon, L.J.; Gregg, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    X-ray analysis of ferroelectric thin layers of Ba 1/2 Sr 1/2 TiO 3 with different thicknesses reveals the presence of strain gradients across the films and allows us to propose a functional form for the internal strain profile. We use this to calculate the influence of strain gradient, through flexoelectric coupling, on the degradation of the ferroelectric properties of films with decreasing thickness, in excellent agreement with the observed behavior. This paper shows that strain relaxation can lead to smooth, continuous gradients across hundreds of nanometers, and it highlights the pressing need to avoid such strain gradients in order to obtain ferroelectric films with bulklike properties

  6. LIGO: The strong belief

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2016-01-01

    Twenty years of designing, building and testing a number of innovative technologies, with the strong belief that the endeavour would lead to a historic breakthrough. The Bulletin publishes an abstract of the Courier’s interview with Barry Barish, one of the founding fathers of LIGO.   The plots show the signals of gravitational waves detected by the twin LIGO observatories at Livingston, Louisiana, and Hanford, Washington. (Image: Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab) On 11 February, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo collaborations published a historic paper in which they showed a gravitational signal emitted by the merger of two black holes. These results come after 20 years of hard work by a large collaboration of scientists operating the two LIGO observatories in the US. Barry Barish, Linde Professor of Physics, Emeritus at the California Institute of Technology and former Director of the Global Design Effort for the Internat...

  7. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  8. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  9. Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion is a complex phenomenon involving the detachment and transport of soil particles, storage and runoff of rainwater, and infiltration. The relative magnitude and importance of these processes depends on a host of factors, including climate, soil, topography, cropping and land management practices among others. Most models for soil erosion or hydrological processes need an accurate storm characterization. However, this data are not always available and in some cases indirect models are generated to fill this gap. In Spain, the rain intensity data known for time periods less than 24 hours back to 1924 and many studies are limited by it. In many cases this data is stored in rainfall strip charts in the meteorological stations but haven't been transfer in a numerical form. To overcome this deficiency in the raw data a process of information extraction from large amounts of rainfall strip charts is implemented by means of computer software. The method has been developed that largely automates the intensive-labour extraction work based on van Piggelen et al. (2011). The method consists of the following five basic steps: 1) scanning the charts to high-resolution digital images, 2) manually and visually registering relevant meta information from charts and pre-processing, 3) applying automatic curve extraction software in a batch process to determine the coordinates of cumulative rainfall lines on the images (main step), 4) post processing the curves that were not correctly determined in step 3, and 5) aggregating the cumulative rainfall in pixel coordinates to the desired time resolution. A colour detection procedure is introduced that automatically separates the background of the charts and rolls from the grid and subsequently the rainfall curve. The rainfall curve is detected by minimization of a cost function. Some utilities have been added to improve the previous work and automates some auxiliary processes: readjust the bands properly, merge bands when

  10. Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svoboda Vojtěch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

  11. Gradient Index Optics at DARPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    sodium, is submerged into a bath of molten salt containing a different ion, such as lithium bromide. Ions from the salt bath diffuse into the glass...molecules, creating a gradient of index of refraction (Mohr et al. 1979). • Crystal growing. From a silver- chloride /sodium- chloride bath, starting with a...sodium chloride seed, a crystal is pulled that begins to deplete the sodium in the bath and starts to pull silver, forming a gradient (Houde-Walter

  12. Stochastic Gradient Monomial Gamma Sampler

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yizhe; Chen, Changyou; Gan, Zhe; Henao, Ricardo; Carin, Lawrence

    2017-01-01

    Recent advances in stochastic gradient techniques have made it possible to estimate posterior distributions from large datasets via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, when the target posterior is multimodal, mixing performance is often poor. This results in inadequate exploration of the posterior distribution. A framework is proposed to improve the sampling efficiency of stochastic gradient MCMC, based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. A generalized kinetic function is leveraged, delivering ...

  13. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-03-12

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

  14. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

    2018-03-01

    The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  15. Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Zulkarnain

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015 data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM, as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM. Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

  16. STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF DAILY RAINFALL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Al Baqui Barkotulla

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water in the northwest part of Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall. The first order Markov chain model was used to simulate the sequence of rainfall occurrence using the method of transitional probability matrices, while daily rainfall amount was generated using a gamma distribution. The model parameters were estimated from historical rainfall records. The shape and scale parameters were estimated by moment method and hence it became possible to find the parameter values at the study area and then to generate synthetic sequences according to the gamma distribution. The parameters necessary for the whole generation include the means, variance or standard deviation and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days. Results obtained showed that the model could be used to generate rainfall data satisfactorily.

  17. Evaluation of denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) used ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) is a powerful method used to study structure of bacterial communities, without cultivation, based on the diversity of the genes coding for ribosomal RNA. However, the results are strongly dependent on the respective target region of the used primer systems. Therefore, three ...

  18. Linking fog water use by plants in the coastal Namib Desert to carbon and nitrogen cycles along aridity gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macko, S. A.; Soderberg, K.; Henschel, J.; Billmark, K.; Swap, R. J.

    2009-12-01

    A steep rainfall gradient exists across the Namib Desert in southern Africa, which is unique in that frequent coastal fog occurs in areas that receive the least rainfall. Overall, the Namib is hyper-arid in terms of rainfall (25-100mm mean annual rainfall, MAR), but areas within about 60km of the coast see up to 100 days of fog each year. This scenario has influenced the distribution of plant species and the behavior of Namib fauna. In this study, carbon and nitrogen isotopes are used to investigate the biogeochemistry of vegetation the Namib aridity gradient, and fog uptake by individual plants is estimated by comparing water isotopes (δ2H and δ18O) of fog, groundwater, rain, soil water and plant water. Using the natural aridity gradient as a basis for this investigation allows for observation of patterns that can potentially be related to controlling biogeochemical processes. Studies of carbon and nitrogen isotopes in vegetation along precipitation gradients have revealed similar patterns in the Kalahari of southern Africa and in West Australia. The Kalahari trend observed along a precipitation gradient of 200-1000mm MAR shows enriched δ13C values in drier areas, and this trend is only apparent in C3 vegetation. The West Australia gradient (1000mm MAR) follows the same general pattern, but the values are quite variable below about 250mm MAR. The corresponding nitrogen isotope data in the Kalahari shows an enrichment in 15N with less rainfall, again only apparent in C3 vegetation. Although there are significant differences between the Namib and Kalahari setting - notably soils and climatology - the Namib aridity gradient could potentially extend the Kalahari data set to areas that receive less than 100mm MAR. The fog and the unique survival strategies of Namib plants may explain differences between the Namib and Kalahari patterns. For example, the C3/CAM species W. mirabilis has highly variable δ13C values (-17.5 to -24‰), with a slight enrichment

  19. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

    southwest monsoon season (June- September). As India's economy mainly depends on agriculture, monsoon rainfall is very important for the country.Besidesagriculture,itis the mainsourceforfresh water to millions of people living in the country. Floods... and droughts associated with strong and weak monsoons greatly influence the economy of the country. Most of the droughts and floods are associated with EI-Nino and La- Nina respectively (Webster andYang3 and krishna Kumar et al\\. The relationship between ENSO...

  20. Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 V7 Rainfall Product over the Oum Er Rbia Watershed in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamza Ouatiki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall measurement sources have become available, such as TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission. In this study, the TRMM 3B42 Version 7 product was evaluated using rain gauges measurements from 19 stations in the Oum-Er-Bia (OER basin located in the center of Morocco. The relevance of the TRMM product was tested by direct comparison with observations at different time scales (daily, monthly, and annual between 1998 and 2010. Results show that the satellite product provides poor estimations of rainfall at the daily time scale giving an average Pearson correlation coefficient (r of 0.2 and average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of 10 mm. However, the accuracy of TRMM rainfall is improved when temporally averaged to monthly time scale (r of 0.8 and RMSE of 28 mm or annual time scale (r of 0.71 and RMSE of 157 mm. Moreover, improved correlation with observed data was obtained for data spatially averaged at the watershed scale. Therefore, at the monthly and annual time scales, TRMM data can be a useful source of rainfall data for water resources monitoring and management in ungauged basins in semi-arid regions.

  1. The wildgeographer avatar shows how to measure soil erosion rates by means of a rainfall simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerdà, Artemi; González Pelayo, Óscar; Pereira, Paulo; Novara, Agata; Iserloh, Thomas; Prosdocimi, Massimo

    2015-04-01

    . 1998a. Effect of climate on surface flow along a climatological gradient in Israel. A field rainfall simulation approach. Journal of Arid Environments, 38, 145-159. Cerdà, A. 1998b. The influence of aspect and vegetation on seasonal changes in erosion under rainfall simulation on a clay soil in Spain. Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 78, 321-330. Cerdà, A., Jurgensen, M. F. 2011. Ant mounds as a source of sediment on citrus orchard plantations in eastern Spain. A three-scale rainfall simulation approach. Catena, 85(3), 231-236. Dunkerley, D. 2012. Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils, Fowlers Gap, Australia. Hydrological Processes, 26(15), 2211-2224. Iserloh, T., Ries, J.B., Arnaez, J., Boix Fayos, C., Butzen, V., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fernández-Gálvez, J., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Gómez, J.A., Gómez-Macpherson, H., Kuhn, N.J., Lázaro, R., León, F.J., Martínez-Mena, M., Martínez-Murillo, J.F., Marzen, M., Mingorance, M.D., Ortigosa, L., Peters, P., Regüés, D., Ruiz-Sinoga, J.D., Scholten, T., Seeger, M., Solé-Benet, A., Wengel, R., Wirtz, S. 2013. European small portable rainfall simulators: a comparison of rainfall characteristics. Catena, 110, 100-112. Doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2013.05.013 Iserloh, T., Ries, J.B., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Kuhn, N.J., León, F.J., Peters, P., Schindewolf, M., Schmidt, J., Scholten, T., Seeger, M. (2012): Comparative measurements with seven rainfall simulators on uniform bare fallow land. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 57, 193-201. DOI: 10.1127/0372- 8854/2012/S-00118. Ziadat, F. M., Taimeh, A. Y. 2013. Effect of rainfall intensity, slope and land use and antecedent soil moisture on soil erosion in an arid environment. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 582- 590. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2239

  2. John Strong (1941 - 2006)

    CERN Multimedia

    Wickens, F

    Our friend and colleague John Strong was cruelly taken from us by a brain tumour on Monday 31st July, a few days before his 65th birthday John started his career working with a group from Westfield College, under the leadership of Ted Bellamy. He obtained his PhD and spent the early part of his career on experiments at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), but after the early 1970s his research was focussed on experiments in CERN. Over the years he made a number of notable contributions to experiments in CERN: The Omega spectrometer adopted a system John had originally developed for experiments at RAL using vidicon cameras to record the sparks in the spark chambers; He contributed to the success of NA1 and NA7, where he became heavily involved in the electronic trigger systems; He was responsible for the second level trigger system for the ALEPH detector and spent five years leading a team that designed and built the system, which ran for twelve years with only minor interventions. Following ALEPH he tur...

  3. Stirring Strongly Coupled Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Fadafan, Kazem Bitaghsir; Rajagopal, Krishna; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2009-01-01

    We determine the energy it takes to move a test quark along a circle of radius L with angular frequency w through the strongly coupled plasma of N=4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills (SYM) theory. We find that for most values of L and w the energy deposited by stirring the plasma in this way is governed either by the drag force acting on a test quark moving through the plasma in a straight line with speed v=Lw or by the energy radiated by a quark in circular motion in the absence of any plasma, whichever is larger. There is a continuous crossover from the drag-dominated regime to the radiation-dominated regime. In the crossover regime we find evidence for significant destructive interference between energy loss due to drag and that due to radiation as if in vacuum. The rotating quark thus serves as a model system in which the relative strength of, and interplay between, two different mechanisms of parton energy loss is accessible via a controlled classical gravity calculation. We close by speculating on the implicati...

  4. Strong-interaction nonuniversality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkas, R.R.; Foot, R.; He, X.; Joshi, G.C.

    1989-01-01

    The universal QCD color theory is extended to an SU(3) 1 direct product SU(3) 2 direct product SU(3) 3 gauge theory, where quarks of the ith generation transform as triplets under SU(3)/sub i/ and singlets under the other two factors. The usual color group is then identified with the diagonal subgroup, which remains exact after symmetry breaking. The gauge bosons associated with the 16 broken generators then form two massive octets under ordinary color. The interactions between quarks and these heavy gluonlike particles are explicitly nonuniversal and thus an exploration of their physical implications allows us to shed light on the fundamental issue of strong-interaction universality. Nonuniversality and weak flavor mixing are shown to generate heavy-gluon-induced flavor-changing neutral currents. The phenomenology of these processes is studied, as they provide the major experimental constraint on the extended theory. Three symmetry-breaking scenarios are presented. The first has color breaking occurring at the weak scale, while the second and third divorce the two scales. The third model has the interesting feature of radiatively induced off-diagonal Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements

  5. Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Bellouin, Nicolas; Stephenson, David

    2013-07-01

    The Sahelian drought of the 1970s-1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere-ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented.

  6. Interception of rainfall and surface runoff in the Brazilian Cerrado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarso Oliveira, Paulo; Wendland, Edson; Nearing, Mark; Perea Martins, João

    2014-05-01

    CI. The average surface runoff under undisturbed Cerrado was less than 1% of the P, and did not have significant correlation (p > 0.05) with P, but had a significant correlation with maximum 30 minute rainfall intensity (I30). This low value for surface runoff indicates that the forest ?oor has a strong influence over surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado. This process is poorly studied; however, we believe this can be a key to understanding the surface runoff generation under undisturbed Cerrado, and in other tropical vegetation, such as the Amazon rainforest.

  7. Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-08-01

    The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with - mostly shallow - landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we

  8. The Saharan Air Layer as an Early Rainfall Season Suppressant in the Eastern Caribbean: The 2015 Puerto Rico Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, Thomas L.; Ramseyer, Craig A.; Miller, Paul W.

    2017-10-01

    Eastern Puerto Rico and the surrounding Caribbean experienced a severe drought in 2015 that resulted in record-low reservoir and river levels. Rainfall deficits in April and May, which represent the period when the drought began, were more severe in 2015 than recent droughts of record. While El Niño has been associated with drought in the Caribbean, onset of the 2015 drought was strongly associated with lower-than-average values of a recently developed tool used by weather forecasters in San Juan, the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), which is used to measure the potential for thunderstorm development and rainfall. Persistently low GDI values indicate strong and frequent intrusions of hot, dry air in the low to middle troposphere, suppressing convection, both locally and in development regions for tropical waves that impact Puerto Rico. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is largely responsible for this anomalously hot, dry air, which produced thermodynamically stable conditions and limited thunderstorms and rainfall. Moreover, higher-than-normal aerosol concentrations, typically associated with SAL intrusion over the Caribbean, were recorded in April and May 2015. A comparison to advanced very high resolution radiometer aerosol optical thickness demonstrates that higher Caribbean aerosols in the early rainfall season, particularly June, are associated with decreased rainfall in eastern Puerto Rico. Results here demonstrate a direct link between the early and more pronounced SAL intrusions into the Caribbean and the suppression of the early rainfall season. More broadly, a reduction in the GDI and increase in the trade wind inversion was associated with reduced early season rainfall in the eastern Caribbean.

  9. Subsurface flow in a soil-mantled subtropical dolomite karst slope: A field rainfall simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z. Y.; Chen, H. S.; Zhang, W.; Xu, Q. X.; Wang, S.; Wang, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Soil and epikarst co-evolve resulting in complex structures, but their coupled structural effects on hydrological processes are poorly understood in karst regions. This study examined the plot-scale subsurface flow characteristics from an integrated soil-epikarst system perspective in a humid subtropical cockpit karst region of Southwest China. A trench was excavated to the epikarst lower boundary for collecting individual subsurface flows in five sections with different soil thicknesses. Four field rainfall simulation experiments were carried out under different initial moisture conditions (dry and wet) and rainfall intensities (114 mm h- 1 (high) and 46 mm h- 1 (low) on average). The soil-epikarst system was characterized by shallow soil overlaying a highly irregular epikarst surface with a near-steady infiltration rate of about 35 mm h- 1. The subsurface flows occurred mainly along the soil-epikarst interface and were dominated by preferential flow. The subsurface flow hydrographs showed strong spatial variability and had high steady-state coefficients (0.52 and 0.36 for high and low rainfall intensity events). Irregular epikarst surface combining with high vertical drainage capacity resulted in high threshold rainfall depths for subsurface flows: 67 mm and 263 mm for initial wet and dry conditions, respectively. The above results evidenced that the irregular and permeable soil-epikarst interface was a crucial component of soil-epikarst architecture and consequently should be taken into account in the hydrological modeling for karst regions.

  10. Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

    2017-08-01

    Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

  11. Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reason, C. J. C.

    2018-04-01

    Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

  12. Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Seltzer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔεLAND from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD and Siple Dome (SD Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔεLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 – periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production, we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔεLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔεLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔεLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔεLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔεLAND.

  13. Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seltzer, Alan M.; Buizert, Christo; Baggenstos, Daniel; Brook, Edward J.; Ahn, Jinho; Yang, Ji-Woong; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2017-10-01

    Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm) records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔɛLAND) from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD) and Siple Dome (SD) Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔɛLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 - periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP)-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production), we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔɛLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔɛLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔɛLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔɛLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔɛLAND.

  14. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Wood

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  15. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  16. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2018-04-01

    This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

  17. Effect of rainfall regimes and mulch decomposition on the dissipation and leaching of S-metolachlor and glyphosate: a soil column experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Sohaib; Iqbal, Akhtar; Deschamps, Marjolaine; Recous, Sylvie; Garnier, Patricia; Benoit, Pierre

    2015-02-01

    Interception by plant residues is a major process affecting pesticide persistence and leaching in conservation agriculture. Dissipation and leaching of S-metolachlor and glyphosate was studied in repacked soil columns covered with a mulch of maize and lablab residues. The columns were submitted to two contrasting simulated rainfall regimes: one with light but frequent rain (LF) and one with less frequent but more intense rain (HI). In both treatments, columns received the same amount of rainwater by the end of the experiment. Decomposing crop residues on the soil surface retained more than 50% of the applied amount of pesticide. S-metolachlor dissipation in mulch residues was faster under the LF rainfall regime. This was attributed to more humid surface conditions, under which mulch decomposition was also faster. The formation of metabolites of both molecules was higher under the LF rainfall regime. However, leaching of S-metolachlor and its metabolites to deeper soil layers was greater under the HI rainfall regime, whereas they accumulated in the surface layer under the LF rainfall regime. Glyphosate remained in the surface soil layer because of its strong adsorption capacity, whereas aminomethylphosphonic acid leached down in small amounts without any difference between the two rainfall regimes. The impact of mulch residues on herbicide dissipation was strongly dependent on molecule type and rainfall regime. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. Extreme rainfall events in the Sinai Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina; Amin, Doaa; Zayed, Islam Sabry Al; Dalu, Giovanni A.

    2017-04-01

    In the present paper Authors discuss results from the first phase of a project carried out in the framework of the Agreement on Scientific Cooperation between the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology of Egypt (ASRT) and the National Research Council of Italy (CNR). As in ancient times, today heavy rainfall, often resulting in flash floods, affects Egypt, not only in the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, but also in arid and semi-arid areas such as Upper Egypt (Luxor, Aswan, and Assiut) and in the Sinai Peninsula, and their distribution has been modified due to the current climate variability. These episodes, although rare, can be catastrophic in regions characterized by a very low annual total amount of precipitation, with large impacts on lives, infrastructures, properties and last but not least, to the great cultural heritage of the Country. Flash flood episodes in the Sinai Peninsula result from heavy, sudden, and short duration rainfall, influenced also by the peculiar orography and soil conditions of the Region, and represent a risk for the population, infrastructures, properties, and sectors like industry and agriculture. On the other hand, flash floods in Sinai and southern/southeastern Egypt represent a potential source for non-conventional fresh water resources. In particular flash flood water, which usually drains into the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba, can fulfill a non-negligible amount of water demand, and/or recharge shallow groundwater aquifers, and the harvested rainfall can represent a source of water for rain-fed agriculture in the region. A general overview of the Sinai current climate is presented, including a climatology of extreme rainfalls events in the last decades. In addition, few selected heavy rainfall episodes which occurred in the Sinai in recent years have been analyzed and their characteristics and links to larger scale circulation will be discussed. Results of the study provide a better

  19. Change in Heavy Rainfall Characteristics over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin Republic, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Hounkpè

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has severe impacts on natural resources, food production and consequently on food security especially in developing countries. Likely accentuated by climate change, flooding is one of the disasters that affects people and destroies agricultural land and products. At different governance levels and scales, appropriate responses are needed. Cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. A methodology for detecting change was applied to heavy daily rainfall of 34 stations across the Ouémé basin, Benin, in order to assess potential change in its characteristics. The spatial variability of the detected changes in return periods was analyzed using the kriging interpolation method. For this analysis, up to 92 years (1921–2012 of rainfall data were used. Three homogeneous regions were found by the cluster analysis. For all studied return periods, 82% of the stations showed statistically significant change in daily precipitation, among which 57% exhibited a positive change and 43% negative change. A positive change is associated with an increase in heavy rainfall over the area of concern. An analysis of the interpolated change in heavy rainfall of different return periods revealed an east-west gradient from negative to positive along the lower Ouémé basin (Region 2. From the middle to the upper Ouémé (Region 1 and 3, a decreasing tendency of heavy rainfall is dominant mainly for the non-homogeneous period. This result of the complex pattern of changes could be veritable information for decision makers and consequently for development of appropriate adaptation measures.

  20. Properties of Extreme Poin Rainfall II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Harremoës, Poul; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1995-01-01

    into account a possible intersite dependence structure, is developed. Adding one total design standard deviation to the regionally averaged T-year events yields increased design values between 5 and 17%. This result brings up a number of questions with respect to application of historical rainfall data....... A statistically significant regional variation is documented and shown to be of importance to engineering application. The apparent variability is divided into sampling uncertainty and uncertainty caused by true regional variability. Further, a method for assessing the total inherent design uncertainty, taking...

  1. The use of Mediterranean shrub to flight against the land degradation. The rainfall partitioning fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Estringana, Pablo; Nieves Alonso-Blazquez, M.; Alegre, Jesús; Cerdà, Artemi

    2014-05-01

    abandonment. Acknowledgements TThe research projects 07 M/0077/1998, 07 M/0023/2000 and RTA01-078-C2- 2, GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA243857 and RECARE FP7 project 603498 supported this research. References: Belmonte Serrato, F., Romero Díaz, A. 1998. A simple technique for measuring rainfall interception by small shrub: "interception flow collection box. Hydrological Processes 12, 471-481. Cerdà, A. 1998. Relationship between climate and soil hydrological and erosional characteristics along climatic gradients in Mediterranean limestone areas. Geomorphology, 25, 123-134. Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2007. Soil wettability, runoff and erodibility of major dry-Mediterranean land use types on calcareous soils. Hydrological Processes, 21, 2325-2336. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2008.03.010. Cerdà, A., Lasanta, A. 2005. Long-term erosional responses after fire in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: 1. Water and sediment yield. Catena, 60, 59-80. Garcia-Estringana, P. 2011. Efectos de diferentes tipos de vegetación mediterránea sobre la hidrología y la pérdida de suelo. Tesis Doctoral, Universidad de Alcalá, Facultad de Ciencias, pp. 170. Garcia-Estringana, P., Alonso-Blázquez, N., Marques, M.J., Bienes, R., Alegre, J. 2010. Direct and indirect effects of Mediterranean vegetation on runoff and soil loss. European Journal of Soil Science 61, 174-185. Izzo, M., Araujo, N., Aucelli, P. P. C., Maratea, A., and Sánchez, A. 2013. Land sensitivity to Desertification in the Dominican Republic: an adaptation of the ESA methodology. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 486- 498. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2241 Lasanta, A., Cerdà, A. 2005. Long-term erosional responses after fire in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: 2. Solute release. Catena, 60, 80-101 Miao, C. Y., Yang, L., Chen, X. H., Gao, Y. 2012. The vegetation cover dynamics (1982-2006) in different erosion regions of the Yellow River Basin, China. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 62- 71. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1050 Prokop, P., Poręba, G. J. 2012. Soil erosion

  2. Regional scale gradients of climate and nitrogen deposition drive variation in ectomycorrhizal fungal communities associated with native Scots pine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, S; Woodward, S; Alexander, I J; Taylor, A F S

    2013-06-01

    Ectomycorrhizal fungi commonly associate with the roots of forest trees where they enhance nutrient and water uptake, promote seedling establishment and have an important role in forest nutrient cycling. Predicting the response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to environmental change is an important step to maintaining forest productivity in the future. These predictions are currently limited by an incomplete understanding of the relative significance of environmental drivers in determining the community composition of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi at large spatial scales. To identify patterns of community composition in ECM fungi along regional scale gradients of climate and nitrogen deposition in Scotland, fungal communities were analysed from 15 seminatural Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests. Fungal taxa were identified by sequencing of the ITS rDNA region using fungal-specific primers. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to assess the significance of 16 climatic, pollutant and edaphic variables on community composition. Vector fitting showed that there was a strong influence of rainfall and soil moisture on community composition at the species level, and a smaller impact of temperature on the abundance of ectomycorrhizal exploration types. Nitrogen deposition was also found to be important in determining community composition, but only when the forest experiencing the highest deposition (9.8 kg N ha(-1)  yr(-1) ) was included in the analysis. This finding supports previously published critical load estimates for ectomycorrhizal fungi of 5-10 kg N ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This work demonstrates that both climate and nitrogen deposition can drive gradients of fungal community composition at a regional scale. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Exotic grasses and nitrate enrichment alter soil carbon cycling along an urban-rural tropical forest gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Daniela F; Lee, Joseph K; McCleery, Taylor L; LeCroy, Chase S

    2015-12-01

    Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect tropical urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that (H1) soil nitrate (NO3 (-) ) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2) Exotic grasslands have elevated soil NO3 (-) and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO3 (-) vs. secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO3 (-) would be positively related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary forest sites along a tropical urban-to-rural gradient during the three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that (1) soil NO3 (-) was generally elevated nearer to the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO3 (-) was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was lower in grasslands than forests. (3) Grasslands had greater soil NO3 (-) seasonality vs. forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO3 (-) accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially related to of aboveground N interception. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on the mosaic of grass cover, rates of N

  4. Polyacrylamide temperature gradient gel electrophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viglasky, Viktor

    2013-01-01

    Temperature Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (TGGE) is a form of electrophoresis in which temperature gradient is used to denature molecules as they move through either acrylamide or agarose gel. TGGE can be applied to analyze DNA, RNA, protein-DNA complexes, and, less commonly, proteins. Separation of double-stranded DNA molecules during TGGE relies on temperature-dependent melting of the DNA duplex into two single-stranded DNA molecules. Therefore, the mobility of DNA reflects not only the size of the molecule but also its nucleotide composition, thereby allowing separation of DNA molecules of similar size with different sequences. Depending on the relative orientation of electric field and temperature gradient, TGGE can be performed in either a parallel or a perpendicular mode. The former is used to analyze multiple samples in the same gel, whereas the later allows detailed analysis of a single sample. This chapter is focused on analysis of DNA by polyacrylamide TGGE using the perpendicular mode.

  5. Editorial: Integrative Research on Organic Matter Cycling across Aquatic Gradients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, Nicholas D.

    2017-05-04

    The interface between freshwater and marine ecosystems provides a unique setting to examine the evolution of biogeochemical components derived from the landscape, inland waters, estuaries, and the ocean across distinct physiochemical gradients. A diverse body of work exploring this research topic is highlighted here with the goal of integrating our understanding of how organic matter (OM) is transported and transformed along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum and sparking interdisciplinary discussions on future research needs. The movement of water ultimately controls the transport and transformation of geochemical components as they move from land to sea, and, as such, contributions to this research topic will be described within the context of the hydrological cycle, starting with rainfall.

  6. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Rainfall simulation experiments in the Southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch rainfall simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semi-arid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30% of the plots simulations were conducted up to five time...

  8. Inter-comparison of satellite rainfall products for representing rainfall diurnal cycle over the Nile basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haile, A.T.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Habib, Emad; Elsaadani, Mohamed; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, the authors inter-compared the performance of three satellite-rainfall products in representing the diurnal cycle of rain occurrence and rain rate over the Nile basin in eastern Africa. These products are the real time (RT) and post-real-time (PRT) (bias adjusted) versions of Tropical

  9. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Melissa McLean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS regional climate model (RCM under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD and extreme rainfall (R95P than consecutive dry days (CDD, wet days (R10, and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5. Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana. Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean.

  10. Acoustic beam control in biomimetic projector via velocity gradient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Xiaowei; Dong, Erqian; Song, Zhongchang [Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology of the Ministry of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005 (China); Zhang, Yu, E-mail: yuzhang@xmu.edu.cn, E-mail: dzk@psu.edu; Tang, Liguo [Key Laboratory of Underwater Acoustic Communication and Marine Information Technology of the Ministry of Education, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005 (China); State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005 (China); Cao, Wenwu, E-mail: yuzhang@xmu.edu.cn, E-mail: dzk@psu.edu [Department of Mathematics and Materials Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 (United States); Li, Songhai [Sanya Key Laboratory of Marin Mammal and Marine Bioacoustics, Sanya Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Science, Sanya 57200 (China); Zhang, Sai [Faculty of Science, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013 (China)

    2016-07-04

    A biomimetic projector (BioP) based on computerized tomography of pygmy sperm whale's biosonar system has been designed using gradient-index (GRIN) material. The directivity of this BioP device was investigated as function of frequency and the velocity gradient of the GRIN material. A strong beam control over a broad bandwidth at the subwavelength scale has been achieved. Compared with a bare subwavelength source, the main lobe pressure of the BioP is about five times as high and the angular resolution is one order of magnitude better. Our results indicate that this BioP has excellent application potential in miniaturized underwater sonars.

  11. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes....... In addition, there is a need for an extreme value model that can include both regional and temporal explanatory variables, evaluate their significance and on this basis estimate the design rainfall. Both topics are addressed in this thesis. The analysed data material includes 137 years of observed daily...... of sub-daily extreme rainfall have increased over the last 34 years. Analysis of the long daily rainfall series show that the number of extreme rainfall events, smoothed by a 10-year moving average, fluctuates between periods of relative high and periods of relatively low number of extremes. The increase...

  12. Satellite and gauge rainfall merging using geographically weighted regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Hu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A residual-based rainfall merging scheme using geographically weighted regression (GWR has been proposed. This method is capable of simultaneously blending various satellite rainfall data with gauge measurements and could describe the non-stationary influences of geographical and terrain factors on rainfall spatial distribution. Using this new method, an experimental study on merging daily rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing dataset (CMOROH and gauge measurements was conducted for the Ganjiang River basin, in Southeast China. We investigated the capability of the merging scheme for daily rainfall estimation under different gauge density. Results showed that under the condition of sparse gauge density the merging rainfall scheme is remarkably superior to the interpolation using just gauge data.

  13. Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Terzo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

  14. Computational Strain Gradient Crystal Plasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niordson, Christian Frithiof; Kysar, Jeffrey W.

    2011-01-01

    element solution method is presented, which delivers the slip-rate field and the velocity-field based on two minimum principles. Some plane deformation problems relevant for certain specific orientations of a face centered cubic crystal under plane loading conditions are studied, and effective in......A model for strain gradient crystal visco-plasticity is formulated along the lines proposed by Fleck andWillis (2009) for isotropic plasticity. Size-effects are included in the model due to the addition of gradient terms in both the free energy as well as through a dissipation potential. A finite...

  15. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  16. Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

  17. Bias correction of satellite-based rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-04-01

    Limitation in hydro-meteorological data availability in many catchments limits the possibility of reliable hydrological analyses especially for near-real-time predictions. However, the variety of satellite based and meteorological model products for rainfall provides new opportunities. Often times the accuracy of these rainfall products, when compared to rain gauge measurements, is not impressive. The systematic differences of these rainfall products from gauge observations can be partially compensated by adopting a bias (error) correction. Many of such methods correct the satellite based rainfall data by comparing their mean value to the mean value of rain gauge data. Refined approaches may also first find out a suitable time scale at which different data products are better comparable and then employ a bias correction at that time scale. More elegant methods use quantile-to-quantile bias correction, which however, assumes that the available (often limited) sample size can be useful in comparing probabilities of different rainfall products. Analysis of rainfall data and understanding of the process of its generation reveals that the bias in different rainfall data varies in space and time. The time aspect is sometimes taken into account by considering the seasonality. In this research we have adopted a bias correction approach that takes into account the variation of rainfall in space and time. A clustering based approach is employed in which every new data point (e.g. of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) is first assigned to a specific cluster of that data product and then, by identifying the corresponding cluster of gauge data, the bias correction specific to that cluster is adopted. The presented approach considers the space-time variation of rainfall and as a result the corrected data is more realistic. Keywords: bias correction, rainfall, TRMM, satellite rainfall

  18. Seasonal Trends of Rainfall and Surface Temperature over Southern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    MORISHIMA, Wataru; AKASAKA, Ikumi

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated seasonal trends of surface temperature and rainfall from 1979 to 2007 in southern Africa. In recent years, annual rainfall has decreased over the African continent from the equator to 20ºS, as well as in Madagascar. On the other hand, annual mean surface temperature has shown an increasing trend across the whole region, with particularly large rates of increase in Namibia and Angola. The spatial and temporal structures of trends in rainfall and surface temperature have...

  19. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  20. Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Yuang Huang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009 became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.

  1. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

    2018-03-01

    Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  2. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  3. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  4. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Ros Faizah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW, inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  5. Characterizing rainfall parameters which influence erosivity in southeastern Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obi, M.E.; Salako, F.K.

    1993-12-01

    An investigation was carried out to characterize some selected parameters which influence rainfall erosivity in southeastern Nigeria. Rainfall amount, distribution, duration, intensity, storm types, energy loads and frequency of rain events in the region were studied using data from stations located in three major agroecological zones. Raindrop size and detaching capacity were evaluated in one of the stations for two months. The mean annual rainfall erosivity values for southeastern Nigeria point to the fact that rainfall tend to be highly erosive. 25 refs, 6 figs, 8 tabs

  6. Gradient hydrogel coatings for medical applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinnayan Kannan, Pandiyarajan; Genzer, Jan

    Mussel byssus is a typical example for gradient material that demonstrates a continues variation in mechanical property (or modulus), i . e . , soft (proximal) part is connected to mussel, while the stiffer (distal) part facilitates the attachment of mussel to a stone. Mimicking such materials is highly demanding especially in the areas of artificial implants. We developed a simple synthetic route to produce gradient hydrogels that are covalently anchored to the substrate. N-isopropylacrylamide has been copolymerized with 5 mole% of photo-active (methacrylyloxybenzophenone) and/or 5% of thermally-active (styrenesulfonylazide) crosslinkers. The incorporation of photo and/or thermal crosslinkers allows us for a complete control over the network properties in orthogonal directions. A systematic investigation towards the gel kinetics, swelling, crosslink density, elasticity and protein adsorption was performed. Our results instigate that weakly crosslinked (low modulus) gels swell strong in aqueous medium than the densely crosslinked (high modulus) gels. The results of protein adsorption are discussed based on the previously developed model entropic shielding and size exclusion effect.

  7. Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

    2013-04-01

    Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

  8. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Goudenhoofdt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  9. Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen

    2017-10-01

    Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

  10. Performance of high-resolution X-band radar for rainfall measurement in The Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. van de Beek

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an analysis of 195 rainfall events gathered with the X-band weather radar SOLIDAR and a tipping bucket rain gauge network near Delft, The Netherlands, between May 1993 and April 1994. The aim of this paper is to present a thorough analysis of a climatological dataset using a high spatial (120 m and temporal (16 s resolution X-band radar. This makes it a study of the potential for high-resolution rainfall measurements with non-polarimetric X-band radar over flat terrain. An appropriate radar reflectivity – rain rate relation is derived from measurements of raindrop size distributions and compared with radar – rain gauge data. The radar calibration is assessed using a long-term comparison of rain gauge measurements with corresponding radar reflectivities as well as by analyzing the evolution of the stability of ground clutter areas over time. Three different methods for ground clutter correction as well as the effectiveness of forward and backward attenuation correction algorithms have been studied. Five individual rainfall events are discussed in detail to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of high-resolution X-band radar and the effectiveness of the presented correction methods. X-band radar is found to be able to measure the space-time variation of rainfall at high resolution, far greater than what can be achieved by rain gauge networks or a typical operational C-band weather radar. On the other hand, SOLIDAR can suffer from receiver saturation, wet radome attenuation as well as signal loss along the path. During very strong convective situations the signal can even be lost completely. In combination with several rain gauges for quality control, high resolution X-band radar is considered to be suitable for rainfall monitoring over relatively small (urban catchments. These results offer great prospects for the new high resolution polarimetric doppler X-band radar IDRA.

  11. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudenhoofdt, Edouard; Delobbe, Laurent; Willems, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005-2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965-2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  12. Adjusting Satellite Rainfall Error in Mountainous Areas for Flood Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate the use of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for evaluating biases of satellite rainfall estimates of flood-inducing storms in mountainous areas and associated improvements in flood modeling. Satellite-retrieved precipitation has been considered as a feasible data source for global-scale flood modeling, given that satellite has the spatial coverage advantage over in situ (rain gauges and radar) observations particularly over mountainous areas. However, orographically induced heavy precipitation events tend to be underestimated and spatially smoothed by satellite products, which error propagates non-linearly in flood simulations.We apply a recently developed retrieval error and resolution effect correction method (Zhang et al. 2013*) on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) product based on NWP analysis (or forecasting in the case of real-time satellite products). The NWP rainfall is derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) set up with high spatial resolution (1-2 km) and explicit treatment of precipitation microphysics.In this study we will show results on NWP-adjusted CMORPH rain rates based on tropical cyclones and a convective precipitation event measured during NASA's IPHEX experiment in the South Appalachian region. We will use hydrologic simulations over different basins in the region to evaluate propagation of bias correction in flood simulations. We show that the adjustment reduced the underestimation of high rain rates thus moderating the strong rainfall magnitude dependence of CMORPH rainfall bias, which results in significant improvement in flood peak simulations. Further study over Blue Nile Basin (western Ethiopia) will be investigated and included in the presentation. *Zhang, X. et al. 2013: Using NWP Simulations in Satellite Rainfall Estimation of Heavy Precipitation Events over Mountainous Areas. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 1844-1858.

  13. Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beria, Harsh; Nanda, Trushnamayee; Singh Bisht, Deepak; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2017-12-01

    The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014) and retrospective (1998-2013) TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga) revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

  14. Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beria

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014 and retrospective (1998–2013 TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

  15. Compositional gradients in Gramineae genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wong, Gane Ka-Shu; Wang, Jun; Tao, Lin

    2002-01-01

    In this study, we describe a property of Gramineae genes, and perhaps all monocot genes, that is not observed in eudicot genes. Along the direction of transcription, beginning at the junction of the 5'-UTR and the coding region, there are gradients in GC content, codon usage, and amino-acid usage...

  16. Correlations of Rainfall and Forest Type with Papilionid Assemblages in Assam in Northeast India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Kusum Barua

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available No comprehensive community studies have been done on the butterflies of the tropical monsoon forests of the East Himalayan region. We described the Papilionidae at one site within the continuous moist deciduous forest belt of Northeast India and their variation with season and forest type. We surveyed 20 permanent line transects, varying with respect to canopy openness and observed levels of disturbance. A total sample effort of 131 days during the dry and wet seasons of a two-year study resulted in 18,373 individuals identified from 28 Papilionidae species. Constrained canonical correspondence ordination was used to examine the effects of season, forest type, rainfall, year, altitude, and geographical position on the species assemblages. Results showed that rainfall, forest type, and season accounted for most variance in papilionid abundance. Rainfall was strongly correlated with the abundance of some species. Nine species were associated with gaps, 16 species were restricted to closed forest, and three species were encountered in both gaps and closed forest. Six species with narrow geographic range were found only in closed forest. The results confirm the strong seasonality of continental Southeast Asian butterfly assemblages.

  17. Fano resonances from gradient-index metamaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yadong; Li, Sucheng; Hou, Bo; Chen, Huanyang

    2016-01-27

    Fano resonances - resonant scattering features with a characteristic asymmetric profile - have generated much interest, due to their extensive and valuable applications in chemical or biological sensors, new types of optical switches, lasers and nonlinear optics. They have been observed in a wide variety of resonant optical systems, including photonic crystals, metamaterials, metallic gratings and nanostructures. In this work, a waveguide structure is designed by employing gradient-index metamaterials, supporting strong Fano resonances with extremely sharp spectra. As the changes in the transmission spectrum originate from the interaction of guided modes from different channels, instead of resonance structures or metamolecules, the Fano resonances can be observed for both transverse electric and transverse magnetic polarizations. These findings are verified by fine agreement with analytical calculations and experimental results at microwave, as well as simulated results at near infrared frequencies.

  18. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  19. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-11-01

    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  20. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  1. Empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zêzere, José Luis; Vaz, Teresa; Pereira, Susana; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Marques, Rui; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is the most important physical process responsible for the landslide triggering in Portugal. Following the work of Zêzere et al. (2014), we present the state of the art concerning the proposition of empirical rainfall thresholds in Portugal for different types of landslides observed in different zones of the country: the Lisbon region, the Douro Valley and the NW Mountains, and the Povoação Municipality in São Miguel Island (Azores). The empirical thresholds applied in Portugal are based on the identification of 120 landslide events and include (i) the computation of antecedent rainfall threshold defined by linear regression, (ii) the normalization of rainfall by the mean annual precipitation, (iii) the definition of combined rainfall thresholds, which integrates the rainfall event and the antecedent rainfall for different time periods, and (iv) the definition of lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds. The intensity-duration (ID) threshold is the empirical rainfall threshold more used worldwide. In mainland Portugal, the highest ID rainfall threshold is registered in the NW Mountains, which is the rainiest zone of the country. The Lisbon Region typically receives less rain per year and the corresponding ID threshold is lower than that obtained in the north part of the country. The Povoação study area evidence a contrasting situation, which is associated to the highest value of the negative exponential of the threshold (-0.66). As a consequence, for short duration (1,000 h) it is below the remaining thresholds. The normalization of the ID threshold by the mean annual precipitation (MAP) has showed that, in relative terms: (i) the ID threshold is highest in Lisbon Region for duration less than 50 h; (ii) in the north of the country, the ID threshold is more exigent in the Douro Valley than in the NW Mountains and (iii) the ID threshold in Povoação Municipality is lower when compared with the other areas, independently on the considered

  2. Strong Turbulence in Low-beta Plasmas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tchen, C. M.; Pécseli, Hans; Larsen, Søren Ejling

    1980-01-01

    An investigation of the spectral structure of turbulence in a plasma confined by a strong homogeneous magnetic field was made by means of a fluid description. The turbulent spectrum is divided into subranges. Mean gradients of velocity and density excite turbulent motions, and govern the production...... subrange. The spectra of velocity and potential fluctuations interact in the coupling subrange, and the energy is transferred along the spectrum in the inertia subrange. Applying the method of cascade decomposition, the spectral laws k-3, k-3, k-2 are obtained for the velocity fluctuations, and k-3, k-5, k......-3/2 for the potential fluctuations in the production, coupling and inertia subranges, respectively. The coefficient of Bohm diffusion is reproduced, and its role in electrostatic coupling is derived. Comparison is made with measured power laws reported in the literature, from Q-devices, hot...

  3. Optimization of gradient coil technology for human magnetic resonance imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chronik, Blaine Alexander

    The general problem of identifying the optimal gradient coil design for any given application is addressed in this thesis. The problem is divided into stages. The first step is the development of an optimal mathematical solution for single designs conforming to some set of constraints. The second step is the systematic implementation of the mathematical algorithm to search for the optimal set of design constraints for an intended application, two examples of which are investigated. The final step is the consideration of gradient coil dependent physiological limits specific to the application of strong gradient fields in human subjects. A modified minimum inductance target field method that allows the placement of a set of constraints on the final current density is developed. This constrained current minimum inductance (CCMI) method is derived in the context of previous target field methods. The method has been fully implemented on computer and applied to the design of both central and edge uniformity gradient coils. A three axis gradient coil set that utilizes interleaved, multilayer axes to achieve maximum gradient strengths of over 2000mT/m in rise times of less than 50μs with an inner coil diameter of 5cm was designed. Water cooling was incorporated into the coil to assist in thermal management. The duty cycle for the most extreme cases of single shot EPI is limited by the thermal response and expressions for maximum rates of image collection are given for burst and continuous modes of operation. A three axis gradient coil set with an imaging region extending outside the physical edge of the coil was designed, constructed, and tested. The configuration is compatible with both neck and brain imaging in humans. The coil produces a cylindrical imaging region 16cm in diameter and 16cm in length. The coil axes produce gradient strengths between 80mT/m and 100mT/m at 250A peak current, with minimum rise times of approximately 400μs. Heating tests were performed

  4. Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

  5. Simulation of rainfall effects on sediment transport on steep slopes in an Alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kaiser

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The Alps represent a young, high mountain range which displays strong geomorphological activity. As the major source area in Central Europe, they deliver large quantities of sediment to the lowlands. However, our knowledge on process differentiation is still not sufficient to distinguish between the summer and winter periods of denudation. To increase our understanding of soil detachment, artificial rainfall experiments were carried out to generate data for the physically-based soil erosion model EROSION 2D/3D. Additionally, state-of-the-art, close-range remote sensing methods were applied to validate the results. The first rainfall simulations showed promising results for predicting denudation during the summer period, thus indicating the applicability of this experimental approach. However, further research is required for seasonal dynamics during other times of the year.

  6. Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

  7. Elemental gradients in macrophytes from a reactor effluent gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grace, J.B.; Tilly, L.J.

    1978-01-01

    The tissues of submersed macrophtes from along the thermal gradient were analyzed for phosphorus to determine whether any pattern correspondent to standing crop distributions could be detected. Although water concentrations of phosphorus showed no detectable relationship to the thermal effluent, tissue concentrations of this element in submersed macrophytes declined with distance from the effluent entry point. The occurrence of this concentration pattern suggests that phosphorus availability is greater near the discharge. Because phosphorus is the element most often determined to limit aquatic productivity, its greater availability may partially account for the apparent enhancement of macrophte growth near the thermal discharge. A patter of macrophyte abundance which indicated enchancement related to the discharge gradient in the reactor-cooling reservoir, Par Pond is reported. Correlative data tended to implicate light and temperature as important in influencing the differential abundance pattern

  8. Coping with Rainfall Variability in Northern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...... of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets....... There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local...

  9. A rainfall simulator based on multifractal generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akrour, Nawal; mallet, Cecile; barthes, Laurent; chazottes, Aymeric

    2015-04-01

    The Precipitations are due to complex meteorological phenomenon's and unlike other geophysical constituents such as water vapour concentration they present a relaxation behaviour leading to an alternation of dry and wet periods. Thus, precipitations can be described as intermittent process. The spatial and temporal variability of this phenomenon is significant and covers large scales. This high variability can cause extreme events which are difficult to observe properly because of their suddenness and their localized character. For all these reasons, the precipitations are therefore difficult to model. This study aims to adapt a one-dimensional time series model previously developed by the authors [Akrour et al., 2013, 2014] to a two-dimensional rainfall generator. The original time series model can be divided into 3 major steps : rain support generation, intra event rain rates generation using multifractal and finally calibration process. We use the same kind of methodology in the present study. Based on dataset obtained from meteorological radar of Météo France with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km we present the used approach : Firstly, the extraction of rain support (rain/no rain area) allowing the retrieval of the rain support structure function (variogram) and fractal properties. This leads us to use either the rain support modelisation proposed by ScleissXXX [ref] or directly real rain support extracted from radar rain maps. Then, the generation (over rain areas) of rain rates is made thanks to a 2D multifractal Fractionnally Integrated Flux (FIF) model [ref]. This second stage is followed by a calibration/forcing step (forcing average rain rate per events) added in order to provide rain rate coherent with observed rain-rate distribution. The forcing process is based on a relation identified from the average rain rate of observed events and their surfaces. The presentation will first explain the different steps presented above, then some results

  10. Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orihuela, Rodrigo L L; Peres, Carlos A; Mendes, Gabriel; Jarenkow, João A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide.

  11. Extension of SMAC scheme for variable density flows under strong temperature gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwer, S. F.; Khan, H. Naushad; Sanghi, S.; Ahmad, A.; Yahya, S. M.

    2012-06-01

    An extension of SMAC scheme is proposed for variable density flows under low Mach number approximation. The algorithm is based on a predictor-corrector time integration scheme that employs a projection method for the momentum equation. A constant-coefficient Poisson equation is solved for the pressure following both the predictor and corrector steps to satisfy the continuity equation at each time step. Spatial discretization is performed on a collocated grid system that offers computational simplicity and straight forward extension to curvilinear coordinate systems. To avoid the pressure odd-even decoupling that is typically encountered in such grids, a flux interpolation technique is introduced for the equations governing variable density flows. An important characteristic of the proposed algorithm is that it can be applied to flows in both open and closed domains. Its robustness and accuracy are illustrated with a non-isothermal, turbulent channel flow at temperature ratio of 1.01 and 2.

  12. Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

    2016-04-01

    Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to

  13. The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on station rainfall and river level in the Fly River system, Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Adrian J.; Pickup, Geoff; Peatman, Simon C.; Clews, Peter; Martin, Jason

    2013-10-01

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical rainfall on the large scale, but its signal is often obscured in individual station data, where effects are most directly felt at the local level. The Fly River system, Papua New Guinea, is one of the wettest regions on Earth and is at the heart of the MJO envelope. A 16 year time series of daily precipitation at 15 stations along the river system exhibits strong MJO modulation in rainfall. At each station, the difference in rainfall rate between active and suppressed MJO conditions is typically 40% of the station mean. The spread of rainfall between individual MJO events was small enough such that the rainfall distributions between wet and dry phases of the MJO were clearly separated at the catchment level. This implies that successful prediction of the large-scale MJO envelope will have a practical use for forecasting local rainfall. In the steep topography of the New Guinea Highlands, the mean and MJO signal in station precipitation is twice that in the satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42HQ product, emphasizing the need for ground-truthing satellite-based precipitation measurements. A clear MJO signal is also present in the river level, which peaks simultaneously with MJO precipitation input in its upper reaches but lags the precipitation by approximately 18 days on the flood plains.

  14. Elevated CO2 and warming effects on grassland plant mortality are determined by the timing of rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovenden, Mark J; Newton, Paul C D; Porter, Meagan

    2017-05-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the mortality rate of established plants in water-limited systems because of its effect on evapotranspiration. The rising CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]), however, should have the opposite effect because it reduces plant transpiration, delaying the onset of drought. This potential for elevated [CO 2 ] (eCO 2 ) to modify the warming effect on mortality should be related to prevailing moisture conditions. This study aimed to determine the impacts of warming by 2 °C and eCO 2 (550 μmol mol -1 ) on plant mortality in an Australian temperate grassland over a 6-year period and to test how interannual variation in rainfall influenced treatment effects. Analyses were based on results from a field experiment, TasFACE, in which grassland plots were exposed to a combination of eCO 2 by free air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and warming by infrared heaters. Using an annual census of established plants and detailed estimates of recruitment, annual mortality of all established plants was calculated. The influence of rainfall amount and timing on the relative impact of treatments on mortality in each year was analysed using multiple regression techniques. Warming and eCO 2 effects had an interactive influence on mortality which varied strongly from year to year and this variation was determined by temporal rainfall patterns. Warming tended to increase density-adjusted mortality and eCO 2 moderated that effect, but to a greater extent in years with fewer dry periods. These results show that eCO 2 reduced the negative effect of warming but this influence varied strongly with rainfall timing. Importantly, indices involving the amount of rainfall were not required to explain interannual variation in mortality or treatment effects on mortality. Therefore, predictions of global warming effects on plant mortality will be reliant not only on other climate change factors, but also on the temporal distribution of rainfall.

  15. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater recharge estimation in west coastal South Africa. ... the data from Oudebosch with different rainfall and groundwater abstraction inputs are simulated to explore individual effects on water levels as well as recharge rate estimated on a daily basis.

  16. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    on the performance of monsoon rainfall over India. The southwest sector of a monsoon depression gets more rainfall due to maximum low level conver- gence and vertical motion (Rajamani and Rao. 1981). Dhar et al (1981) have noted a significant relationship of tropical disturbances (depression and cyclonic storms) only ...

  17. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    grid consists of around 1250 grid points. Daily IMD analysed rainfall values at these 1250 grids are con- sidered as proxy gauge data for our 1. ◦ lat./long. resolution merged satellite gauge rainfall analysis for the Indian monsoon region. Since the basic gauge analysed data is at 0.5. ◦ lat./long. resolution, we decided to make ...

  18. Variability in Rainfall, Temperature and Relative Humidity at Bahir ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to assess change in rainfall, temperature and relative humidity at Bahir Dar city in relation to global climate change. The study focused on analyzing changes in meteorological data, specifically temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Bahir Dar city was selected due to its proximity to Lake Tana ...

  19. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-05-23

    May 23, 2012 ... rec har ge. (m m. ) W ater lev el fluc tuation. (m. ) Months of simulation rainfall. Recharge amount. WLF dh(crd) dh(rib). (c) TMG544. Figure 4. Daily/monthly rainfall, observed. WLF as well as calculated WLF and groundwater recharge in Riverlands and Oudebosch obtained from the. RIB model and CRD.

  20. Post-Adaptation Vulnerability of Cereals to Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2014-09-04

    Sep 4, 2014 ... challenges on a global scale (Scholze et al.,. 2006; Mendelsohn et al., 2006). Climate change have ... stress, longer dry seasons and uncertain rainfall patterns putting areas that depend strictly on rainfall ..... season as the greatest hindrance to increased yield of cereals which is more serious in the northern ...

  1. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

    2015-11-01

    We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

  2. Probabilistic Analysis of Peak Daily Rainfall for Prediction purposes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The obtained peak daily rainfall values were subjected to Gumbel, Log-Gumbel, Normal, Log-Normal, Pearson and Log-Pearson probability distributions. Mathematical equation for probability distribution functions were established for each town and used to predict peak rainfall. The predicted values were subjected to ...

  3. Fractal analysis of rainfall occurrence observed in the synoptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fractal analysis is important for characterizing and modeling rainfall's space-time variations in hydrology. The purpose of this study consists on determining, in a mono-fractal framework, the scale invariance of rainfall series in Benin synopticstations located in two main geographical area: Cotonou, Bohicon , Savè in a sub ...

  4. Assessment of the Growing Season over the Unimodal Rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Most part of Tanzania experiences unimodal rainfall. The characteristics of rainfall such as its onset and cessation dates, dry and wet spell lengths, frequency and number of rainy days can be, used to determine the nature of growing season length of growing season end of season and its geographical variation both ...

  5. Rainfall response to Dam/Irrigation projects in Northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  6. Fitting the Statistical Distribution for Daily Rainfall in Ibadan, Based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-06-01

    Jun 1, 2013 ... followed by normal and poisson model that has the same estimated rainfall amount for describing the daily rainfall in Ibadan metropolis. Keywords : scale parameter, asymptotically, exponential distribution, gamma distribution, poisson and kolmogorov-smirnov. .... Equation (7) can be simply written as.

  7. Rainfall intensity effects on crusting and mode of seedling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Predicted changes in rainfall intensity due to climate change are likely to influence key soil health parameters, especially structural attributes and crop growth. Variations in rainfall intensity will impact crop ... and growth in these soils. Keywords: climate change, crusting, mineralogy, penetration resistance, soil organic matter ...

  8. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area ...

  9. Trends in Moderate Rainfall Extremes : A Regional Monotone Regression Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roth, M.; Buishand, T.A.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall extremes are thought to have increased over recent years. Typically linear trends have been considered to describe the temporal evolution of high quantiles of the daily rainfall distribution. For long records it is important to allow more flexibility. Quantile regression methods are

  10. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  11. On the asymmetric distribution of shear-relative typhoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Si; Zhai, Shunan; Li, Tim; Chen, Zhifan

    2018-02-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track data during 2000-2015 are used to compare spatial rainfall distribution associated with Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) with different vertical wind shear directions and investigate possible mechanisms. Results show that the maximum TC rainfall are all located in the downshear left quadrant regardless of shear direction, and TCs with easterly shear have greater magnitudes of rainfall than those with westerly shear, consistent with previous studies. Rainfall amount of a TC is related to its relative position and proximity from the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the intensity of water vapor transport, and low-level jet is favorable for water vapor transport. The maximum of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (MFC) are located on the downshear side regardless of shear direction, and the contribution of wind convergence to the total MFC is far larger than that of moisture advection. The cyclonic displacement of the maximum rainfall relative to the maximum MFC is possibly due to advection of hydrometeors by low- and middle-level cyclonic circulation of TCs. The relationship between TC rainfall and the WPSH through water vapor transport and vertical wind shear implies that TC rainfall may be highly predictable given the high predictability of the WPSH.

  12. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS)developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough.A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rainfall over Orissa during the ...

  13. Water storage and evaporation as constituents of rainfall interception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, W; Bosveld, F; de Water, E

    1998-01-01

    Intercepted rainfall may be evaporated during or after the rain event. Intercepted rain is generally determined as the difference between rainfall measurements outside and inside the forest. Such measurements are often used to discriminate between water storage and evaporation during rain as well.

  14. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall ...

  15. Indications of the changing nature of rainfall in Ethiopia: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    with regards to rainfall, a working hypothesis that reads as: there is a statistically significant change ... The hypothesis. Climatologically speaking, Ethiopia is a world in miniature, in that, dictated by its high amplitude of relief (Mesfin,. 1970), the largeness of its size, ... Studies on rainfall trends and variability made in Ethiopia.

  16. Rainfall response to dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends ...

  17. Rainfall estimation for hydrology using volumetric weather radar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis focuses specifically on weather radar rainfall measurements in strati form precipitation. In North-Western Europe this type of precipitation is most dominant in winter and leads to the largest hydro logical response of catchments. Unfortunately, the quality of uncorrected radar rainfall

  18. Rainfall analysis for environmental applications in Maiduguri, Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The F- and t-tests on the series showed consistency and stability of the variance and mean, respectively. It is therefore, concluded that the rainfall data can be used for further analysis and storm sewage facility design. Keywords: rainfall, trend, stationary, homogeneous, consistent. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences ...

  19. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over. Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air ...

  20. Evaluation of Rainfall Erosivity Index for Abuja, Nigeria Using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall erosivity index is one of the important factors influencing soil erosion. Erosivity index for Abuja, Nigeria was evaluated using the Lombadi method. Twelve (12) years rainfall data (2001 – 2012) used was obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. Daily kinetic energy – intensity interaction was ...

  1. Rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essel, Paul; Glover, Eric T; Yeboah, Serwaa; Adjei-Kyereme, Yaw; Yawo, Israel Nutifafa Doyi; Nyarku, Mawutoli; Asumadu-Sakyi, Godfred S; Gbeddy, Gustav Kudjoe; Agyiri, Yvette Agyiriba; Ameho, Evans Mawuli; Aberikae, Emmanuel Atule

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is the potential ability for rainfall to cause soil loss. The purpose of this study was to estimate the rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site in order to compute the surface erosion rate. Monthly rainfall data, for the period 2003-2012 were used to compute annual rainfall erosivity indices for the site, using the Modified Fournier index. Values of the annual rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 73.5 mm for 2004 to 200.4 mm for the year 2003 with a mean annual erosivity index of 129.8 mm for the period. The Pearson's Coefficient of Correlation was used to establish the relationship between annual rainfall and annual rainfall erosivity. This showed a high degree of positive relationship (r = 0.7) for the study area. The computed mean annual erosivity index revealed that the site is in the high erosion risk zone. Therefore, it is necessary to develop soil protection and management strategies to protect the soil from erosion.

  2. Prediction of annual rainfall pattern using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A hidden Markov model to predict annual rainfall pattern has been presented in this paper. The model is developed to provide necessary information for the farmers, agronomists, water resource management scientists and policy makers to enable them plan for the uncertainty of annual rainfall. The model classified annual ...

  3. Rainfall Variability and its Implications for the Transferability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mosrof agrj~ultural qctivities in semi-arid areqs of Tanzania ,d~pend on direct rainfall: Conse-, quently, any significant variation in /he temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall usually results in serious shortage of sQil~water available to plants and thus poor crop and livestock production. In this paper the variafJility and ...

  4. Statistical Modelling of Recent Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); S-H. Wang (Szu-Hua)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the

  5. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arslan

    2013-09-04

    Sep 4, 2013 ... Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July. 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history.

  6. Selection of an Appropriate Interpolation Method for Rainfall Data In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There are many interpolation methods in use with various limitations and likelihood of errors. This study applied five interpolation methods to existing rainfall data in central Nigeria to determine the most appropriate method that returned the best prediction of rainfall at an ungauged site. The methods include the inverse ...

  7. The dynamics of rainfall interception by a seasonal temperate rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy E. Link; Mike Unsworth; Danny. Marks

    2004-01-01

    Net canopy interception (Inet) during rainfall in an old-growth Douglas-fir-western hemlock ecosystem was 22.8 and 25.0% of the gross rainfall (PG) for 1999 and 2000, respectively. The average direct throughfall proportion (p) and canopy storage capacity (

  8. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air ...

  9. Investigation of the possible influence of Urbanization on Rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The data was subjected to homogeneity test by using Short-Cut Bartlett test. Wind variation, rainfall trend and spatial distribution of rainfall were performed by using Wind Rose Plot (WRPLOT) View software, Mann-Kendall test and surfer respectively in the study. The results show that the dominant winds over the study area ...

  10. River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt–Winters ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Conventional ways that determine rainfalltrends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt–Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data ...

  11. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  12. Curve number estimation from Brazilian Cerrado rainfall and runoff data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Curve Number (CN) method has been widely used to estimate runoff from rainfall events in Brazil, however, CN values for use in the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) are poorly documented. In this study we used experimental plots to measure natural rainfall-driven rates of runoff under undisturbed Cerr...

  13. Multilayer perceptron neural network for downscaling rainfall in arid ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    3Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, China. ∗Corresponding author. e-mail: sshahid@utm.my. Downscaling rainfall in an arid region is much challenging compared to wet region due to erratic and infrequent behaviour of rainfall in the arid region. The complexity is further aggregated ...

  14. Rainfall interception and the coupled surface water and energy balance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; et al., et al.; Moors, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from wet canopies (. E) can return up to half of incident rainfall back into the atmosphere and is a major cause of the difference in water use between forests and short vegetation. Canopy water budget measurements often suggest values of E during rainfall that are several times greater

  15. Flood Prediction using Rainfall – Runoff Spatial Variation: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High intensity rainfall and associated floods have become frequent in most cities and urban areas in recent years, within the lower reaches of the Niger Delta. The magnitude and time variation of rainfall and associated runoff has proved more difficult to predict. This is mainly as a result of the inherent stochastic nature of ...

  16. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    mesoscale convective organization associated with monsoon depression. 1. Introduction. Indian monsoon rainfall is dominated by meso- β type disturbances, such as orographic rainfall along the west coast (Western Ghats) of India, and synoptically induced mesoscale convective systems during the passage of monsoon ...

  17. Diagnosing potential discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Matthew; Williams, Charles; Chiu, Christine; Maidment, Ross; Chen, Shu-Hua

    2015-04-01

    Reliable satellite precipitation estimates are vital over many regions of Africa because of the importance of rainfall monitoring for rain-fed agriculture and water resources. In particular, regions with mountainous terrain pose a major challenge for satellite-based rainfall algorithms because retrievals based upon thermal infrared and microwave observations tend to miss orographic precipitation, often associated with warm temperatures and a weak scattering signal. To investigate the skill of satellite rainfall retrievals over mountainous terrain, we evaluate several satellite-based rainfall algorithms against rain gauge measurements over the mountainous Oromia region in Ethiopia. In particular, we assess the skill of rainfall retrieved from algorithms that only use thermal infrared observations and algorithms that combine both thermal infrared and microwave observations. We also investigate the dependency of retrievals on topography by classifying the relationship between the retrieval errors and elevation. Furthermore, we conduct high resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) during days with significant retrieval errors to determine how the errors relate to the characteristics of precipitation. A qualitative assessment of the vertical atmospheric structure and microphysical content of simulations reveals the potential sources of underestimation and overestimation in the rainfall algorithms. This study will highlight the importance of understanding regional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates, with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

  18. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed a neurofuzzy-based rainfall-runoff forecast model for river basin and evaluated the performance of the model. This was with a view to capturing the behaviour of hydrological and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. Three hydrological ...

  19. Rainfall pattern effects on crusting, infiltration and erodibility in some ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall characteristics affect crust formation, infiltration rate and erosion depending on intrinsic soil properties such as texture and mineralogy. The current study investigated the effects of rainfall pattern on crust strength, steady state infiltration rate (SSIR) and erosion in soils with various texture and minerals. Soil samples ...

  20. Investigation into increasing short-duration rainfall intensities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies on climate circulation models for future climate conditions project that rainfall in the Western Cape and wider South African region is to become more intense and extreme. Sub-daily rainfall for 3 stations in the Western Cape and 4 stations in the rest of South Africa were analysed in order to determine if any trends ...