WorldWideScience

Sample records for stora enso timber

  1. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo

    2004-01-01

    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  2. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from

  3. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    OpenAIRE

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from the theory of institutional sociology to explain complex interaction between transnational actors and actors in localities that jointly form a governance generating network in order to implement the ...

  4. Stora's fine notion of divergent amplitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph C. Várilly

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stora and coworkers refined the notion of divergent quantum amplitude, somewhat upsetting the standard power-counting recipe. This unexpectedly clears the way to new prototypes for free and interacting field theories of bosons of any mass and spin.

  5. Stora's fine notion of divergent amplitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Várilly, Joseph C.; Gracia-Bondía, José M.

    2016-01-01

    Stora and coworkers refined the notion of divergent quantum amplitude, somewhat upsetting the standard power-counting recipe. This unexpectedly clears the way to new prototypes for free and interacting field theories of bosons of any mass and spin.

  6. BRS “Symmetry”, the main role of Raymond Stora

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becchi, Carlo M., E-mail: becchi@ge.infn.it

    2016-11-15

    We discuss how Raymond Stora's absolute need of mathematical rigor has determined the discovery of BRS “Symmetry”. This need having been the essential reason for the construction of the identity which has been presented by Rouet and Stora in the lectures given at Lausanne-1973. Once written this identity the celebrated discovery has been a matter of reading. We also recall the less celebrated discovery of BRS cohomology and its impact on Physics.

  7. BRS “Symmetry”, the main role of Raymond Stora

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becchi, Carlo M.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss how Raymond Stora's absolute need of mathematical rigor has determined the discovery of BRS “Symmetry”. This need having been the essential reason for the construction of the identity which has been presented by Rouet and Stora in the lectures given at Lausanne-1973. Once written this identity the celebrated discovery has been a matter of reading. We also recall the less celebrated discovery of BRS cohomology and its impact on Physics.

  8. Packaging Solutions : Delivering customer value through Logistical Packaging: A Case Study at Stora Enso Packaging

    OpenAIRE

    Shan, Kun; Julius, Joezer

    2015-01-01

    AbstractBackground;Despite of the significant role of packaging within logistics and supply chain management, packaging is infrequently studied as focal point in supply chain. Most of the previous logistics research studies tend to explain the integration between packaging and logistics through logistical packaging. In very rare cases, the studies mentioned about customer value. Therefore the major disadvantage of these studies is that, they didn’t consider logistical packaging and customer v...

  9. Kontserthuset Göteborg. Fredag 7. mars 1997 Stora salen

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1997-01-01

    Kontserthuset Göteborg. Göteborgs Symfoniker. Chefdirigent: Neeme Järvi. Dirigent: Neeme Järvi. Kontsertmästare: Per Enoksson, Christer Thorvaldsson. Fredag 7. mars 1997 Stora salen (orange serie). Kavas: Ingvar Lidholm "Toccata e canto", Eduard Tubin Sümfoonia N 5 h-moll, Igor Stravinski "Püha kevad" Lk. 3-4: Kruckenberg, Sven: Tubin - Symfoni nr 5. Lk. 7 Neeme Järvi dirigenditööst

  10. Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin quantization of histories electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noltingk, Duncan

    2002-01-01

    This article is a continuation of earlier work where a classical history theory of pure electrodynamics was developed in which the history fields have five components. The extra component is associated with an extra constraint, thus enlarging the gauge group of histories electrodynamics. In this article we quantize the classical theory developed previously by two methods. First we quantize the reduced classical history space to obtain a reduced quantum history theory. Second we quantize the classical BRST-extended history space, and use the Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin charge to define a 'cohomological' quantum history theory. Finally, we show that the reduced history theory is isomorphic (as a history theory) to the cohomological history theory

  11. Where was ENSO strongest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.

    2008-12-01

    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  12. Environmental impact assessment of STORA SKOG:s forest fertilizing program. Part 1: Basic facts; Miljoekonsekvensbeskrivning av STORA SKOG:s goedslingsprogram. Del 1: faktaunderlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nohrstedt, H.Oe. [SkogForsk, Uppsala (Sweden); Westling, O. [IVL-Aneboda, Lammhult (Sweden)

    1995-12-01

    Nitrogen fertilization of forest soils has been used for several decades to improve productivity. STORA plans to fertilize 10 to 15 thousand hectares forests with nitrogen annually, over an area of 1 545 000 hectares productive forest land. The ecological effects of this forest fertilization plan have been studied in the form of an environmental impact assessment (EIA). The first part of this EIA, presented in this report by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), include the present and possible future state of the forest environment in Sweden, in relation to STORA owned forests and the fertilization programme and present knowledge about nitrogen cycling and forest fertilization. The second part, presented in a separate report contains information about the ecological effects of implementation of STORA fertilization plans, identification of shortcomings in knowledge to date, and recommendations for evasion of possible negative effects of implementation. Environmental effects of nitrogen fertilization are described in contrast to the possible environmental effects of acidification of soil and surface water, build-up of nitrogen pool in soils, leakage of nitrogen to surface waters from soils, changes in forest soil fertility, uptake and loss of climate affecting gases, and the biological diversity of the forest ecosystem. 193 refs, 4 figs, 7 tabs

  13. 29. IV-22. V on Stora Enso Packaging ASi uues tehasehoones Jälgimäel Tänassilma tehnopargis...

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2004-01-01

    Noorte kunstnike näitus "Paper Talks!". Väljapaneku koordinaator Maarin Ektermann. Installatsiooni märksõna on interdistsiplinaarsus, kaasa on haaratud hüpermaal, graafika, arhitektoonika, videokunst

  14. Kontserthuset Göteborg. Lördag 15. mars 1997 Stora salen

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1997-01-01

    Kontserdi kavas juttu: Eduard Tubina "Balalaikakontsert" ning Wilhelm Stenhammari ja Sergei Prokofjevi teosed Lk. 3-4: Kruckenberg, Sven: Tubin - Balalajkakontsert. Kontserthuset Göteborg. Göteborgs Symfoniker, chefdirigent: Neeme Järvi. Dirigent: Neeme Järvi, solist: Gennady Zut, balalajka. Kontsertmästare: Per Enoksson, Christer Thorvaldsson. Lördag 15. mars 1997 Stora salen (grön serie)

  15. Environmental impact assessment of STORA SKOG:s forest fertilizing program. Part 2: Judgement; Miljoekonsekvensbeskrivning av STORA SKOG:s goedslingsprogram. Del 2: bedoemning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westling, O [IVL-Aneboda, Lammhult (Sweden); Nohrstedt, H Oe [SkogForsk, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1995-12-01

    The ecological effects of forest fertilization have been studied in the form of an environmental impact assessment (EIA). The first part of this EIA, presented in an earlier report by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), included the present and possible future state of the forest environment in Sweden, in relation to STORA owned forests and the fertilization programme and present knowledge about nitrogen cycling and forest fertilization. The second part is presented here, and contains information about the ecological effects of implementation of STORA fertilization plans, identification of shortcomings in knowledge to date, and recommendations for evasion of possible negative effects of implementation. The general consensus of this EIA is that the forest fertilization plans drawn up by STORA will not negatively affect the use of the forest as a natural resource in an ecologically sound way, taken into account that the guidelines included in the EIA are followed. The possible environmental effects of a 10 to 20 year period from onset of the plan were studied in contrast to the possible environmental effects of acidification of soil and surface water, build-up of nitrogen pool in soils, leakage of nitrogen to surface waters from soils, changes in forest soil fertility, uptake and loss of climate affecting gases, and the biological diversity of the forest ecosystem. The recommendations given in this EIA include the choice of forest stands for fertilization, environmental awareness, amount of fertilizer applied, frequency of applications, application procedures and effects follow up, communications, and documentation of the events. 69 refs, 14 tabs

  16. Timber Curtain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    Timber Curtain is a site specific architectural installation, which is part of a research project conducted at the Aarhus School of Architecture as collaboration between Ph.D. and associate professor Niels Martin Larsen and the author. Through a digitally scripted associative model we performed s...... of pinewood timber, machined with a CMS Antares 5-axis CNC router. The digital process generation and simulation was implemented with Rhinoceros 3D, Grasshopper and GHPython, and AlphaCAM was used for preparing the CNC-routing....

  17. Timber tracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Düdder, Boris; Ross, Omry

    2017-01-01

    Managing and verifying forest products in a value chain is often reliant on easily manipulated document or digital tracking methods - Chain of Custody Systems. We aim to create a new means of tracking timber by developing a tamper proof digital system based on Blockchain technology. Blockchain...

  18. Environmental impact assessment of STORA SKOG:s forest fertilizing program. Part 1: Basic facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohrstedt, H.Oe.; Westling, O.

    1995-12-01

    Nitrogen fertilization of forest soils has been used for several decades to improve productivity. STORA plans to fertilize 10 to 15 thousand hectares forests with nitrogen annually, over an area of 1 545 000 hectares productive forest land. The ecological effects of this forest fertilization plan have been studied in the form of an environmental impact assessment (EIA). The first part of this EIA, presented in this report by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), include the present and possible future state of the forest environment in Sweden, in relation to STORA owned forests and the fertilization programme and present knowledge about nitrogen cycling and forest fertilization. The second part, presented in a separate report contains information about the ecological effects of implementation of STORA fertilization plans, identification of shortcomings in knowledge to date, and recommendations for evasion of possible negative effects of implementation. Environmental effects of nitrogen fertilization are described in contrast to the possible environmental effects of acidification of soil and surface water, build-up of nitrogen pool in soils, leakage of nitrogen to surface waters from soils, changes in forest soil fertility, uptake and loss of climate affecting gases, and the biological diversity of the forest ecosystem. 193 refs, 4 figs, 7 tabs

  19. Environmental impact assessment of STORA SKOG:s forest fertilizing program. Part 2: Judgement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westling, O.; Nohrstedt, H.Oe.

    1995-12-01

    The ecological effects of forest fertilization have been studied in the form of an environmental impact assessment (EIA). The first part of this EIA, presented in an earlier report by the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL), included the present and possible future state of the forest environment in Sweden, in relation to STORA owned forests and the fertilization programme and present knowledge about nitrogen cycling and forest fertilization. The second part is presented here, and contains information about the ecological effects of implementation of STORA fertilization plans, identification of shortcomings in knowledge to date, and recommendations for evasion of possible negative effects of implementation. The general consensus of this EIA is that the forest fertilization plans drawn up by STORA will not negatively affect the use of the forest as a natural resource in an ecologically sound way, taken into account that the guidelines included in the EIA are followed. The possible environmental effects of a 10 to 20 year period from onset of the plan were studied in contrast to the possible environmental effects of acidification of soil and surface water, build-up of nitrogen pool in soils, leakage of nitrogen to surface waters from soils, changes in forest soil fertility, uptake and loss of climate affecting gases, and the biological diversity of the forest ecosystem. The recommendations given in this EIA include the choice of forest stands for fertilization, environmental awareness, amount of fertilizer applied, frequency of applications, application procedures and effects follow up, communications, and documentation of the events. 69 refs, 14 tabs

  20. "Forntidens vildar" : Perspektiv på relationen mellan djur och människor i grottan Stora Förvar

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    The cave Stora Förvar, excavated in the end of the 19th century, yielded a vast archaeological assemblage, providing great insight into the stone-age occupation of Stora Karlsö, an island a few kilometers off the west coast of Gotland. The bones of around ten humans dating to the Mesolithic have previously been identified among the four tons of faunal remains recovered from the cave. The human bone material featured cut-marks and split tubular bones. This, along with the apparent mixing of hu...

  1. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  2. Damping in Timber Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Labonnote, Nathalie

    2012-01-01

    Key point to development of environmentally friendly timber structures, appropriate to urban ways of living, is the development of high-rise timber buildings. Comfort properties are nowadays one of the main limitations to tall timber buildings, and an enhanced knowledge on damping phenomena is therefore required, as well as improved prediction models for damping. The aim of this work has consequently been to estimate various damping quantities in timber structures. In particular, models h...

  3. Section of mechanized timbering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balaganskiy, S Ye; Aksanov, Sh I; Ardashev, K A; Mednik, L Ye; Mikhaylov, P G

    1980-09-05

    A section of mechanized timbering is claimed which contains a base, roof timber, hydraulic stand, hydraulic packing cylinders, packing telescopic shield hinged to the roof timber by means of guides. To improve the reliability of forming the filling massif, the packing telescopic shield is made in the form of individual telescopic beams with guards which are interconnected by means of cross beams, while the gaps between the telescopic beams are covered with elasic plates.

  4. Changes to timber market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2008-01-01

    Ten thousands of tree trunks have ended up in the Liptovska Mara lake. The fact that state owned company Lesy SR decided to store the timber in the reservoir as it could not sell it on the market represents a small revolution in the industry. About a year ago timber processing companies were fighting for timber and suddenly it cannot be sold and has to be stored in the reservoir waiting for better times. When the forestry and timber processing industry will not be in such a difficult situation as it is now. Timber, floor and furniture manufacturers claim that the demand for their products and consequently also prices are falling. Some have already started to decrease production and started making redundancies. And when manufacturers complain, the timber suppliers are not happy either. The reason is that the industry has been hit by several blows at the same time. In last three to four years forests in Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Scandinavia and in Canada have suffered several heavy windstorms after which large volumes of timber had to be processed quickly. So there was an excess of timber, particularly spruce. This created an ideal situation for the processing industry where the more agile companies increased their market share and offered timber at more competitive prices. (authors)

  5. Timber salvage economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2008-01-01

    Timber salvage is commonly done following natural disturbances, to recover some value from damaged forests. Decision making about salvage, however, is affected by ownership objectives, the nature of the damage agent, site factors, and the strength of the local timber market. For profit-maximizing landowners, salvage decisions must balance the cost of harvesting...

  6. timber for structural use

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    Logs of Apa timber were air-dried and along the stem, 324 pieces of test specimens were ..... (machine) manual with the load rate of 1mm/min ..... [16] Desch, H. E., Timber properties, 6th. Edition,. Revised by J. M. Dinwoodie. Macmillan ...

  7. 1970 Oregon timber harvest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Wall

    1971-01-01

    The 1970 Oregon timber harvest of 7.98 billion board feet was the lowest recorded since the recession year of 1961 when 7.41 billion board feet of timber was produced. The 1970 log production figure was 12.8 percent below the 1969 harvest, the second consecutive year of declining production in Oregon.

  8. Traditional timber frames

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorissen, A.J.M.; Hamer, den J.; Leijten, A.J.M.; Salenikovich, A.

    2014-01-01

    Due to new possibilities traditional timber framing has become increasingly popular since the beginning of the 21e century. Although traditional timber framing has been used for centuries, the expected mechanical behaviour is not dealt with in great detail in building codes, guidelines or text

  9. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  10. Forest owners' timber sales satisfaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pammo, R.; Ripatti, P.

    2003-01-01

    The TTS Institute has carried out a study concerning forest owners' timber sales. The material was collected in 2002 via a mail inquiry that targeted forest owners who sold timber during the years 1997-1999 and 1999-2002. Three quarters of the forest owners sold timber to the same timber buying company during both periods of 1997-1999 and 1999-2002. The most important reasons for selling to the same buyer were that they purchased all timber assortments, reliability and good timber price. Mainly the same reasons also applied when changing the timber buying company. The most sensitive groups to changing timber buyer were 60-69 year old, entrepreneurs, men, and owners of forest holdings between 20-29 hectares, owners of inherited forests and joint forest ownerships. The forest owners assessed the timber buying company's operations and its staff on the basis of the last timber sale. The forest owners gave best values for the timber buyer's reliability, the purchase of all timber assortments and the timber buyers' reputation. The worst values were given for cross-cutting and response to complaints. No less than 95 percent of forest owners were prepared to recommend their timber trade partner to acquaintances, friends or other forest owners. Yet only half of the forest owners recognized that their last timber sale experience would not affect which company will be selected for the nest timber sale process

  11. Timber Products Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Robert C. Abt

    2002-01-01

    This chapter describes historical, current, and projected timber inventories and timber product outputs from southern forests. It also attempts to place these quantities in national and international perspectives. Timber is the most valuable commercial commodity taken from most forests, and its removal strongly influences the character of those forests. Timber is...

  12. On the Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations, and spin–orbit coupling: A tribute to Raymond Stora

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duval, Christian

    2016-01-01

    The Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations describing the motions of a spinning, charged, relativistic particle endowed with an anomalous magnetic moment in an electromagnetic field, are reconsidered. They are shown to duly stem from the linearization of the characteristic distribution of a presymplectic structure refining the original one of Souriau. In this model, once specialized to the case of a static electric-like field, the angular momentum and energy given by the associated moment map now correctly restore the spin–orbit coupling term. This is the state-of-the-art of unfinished joint work with Raymond Stora.

  13. On the Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations, and spin–orbit coupling: A tribute to Raymond Stora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Duval

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations describing the motions of a spinning, charged, relativistic particle endowed with an anomalous magnetic moment in an electromagnetic field, are reconsidered. They are shown to duly stem from the linearization of the characteristic distribution of a presymplectic structure refining the original one of Souriau. In this model, once specialized to the case of a static electric-like field, the angular momentum and energy given by the associated moment map now correctly restore the spin–orbit coupling term. This is the state-of-the-art of unfinished joint work with Raymond Stora.

  14. On the Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations, and spin–orbit coupling: A tribute to Raymond Stora

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, Christian

    2016-11-15

    The Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equations describing the motions of a spinning, charged, relativistic particle endowed with an anomalous magnetic moment in an electromagnetic field, are reconsidered. They are shown to duly stem from the linearization of the characteristic distribution of a presymplectic structure refining the original one of Souriau. In this model, once specialized to the case of a static electric-like field, the angular momentum and energy given by the associated moment map now correctly restore the spin–orbit coupling term. This is the state-of-the-art of unfinished joint work with Raymond Stora.

  15. On the Bargmann-Michel-Telegdi equations, and spin-orbit coupling: A tribute to Raymond Stora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Christian

    2016-11-01

    The Bargmann-Michel-Telegdi equations describing the motions of a spinning, charged, relativistic particle endowed with an anomalous magnetic moment in an electromagnetic field, are reconsidered. They are shown to duly stem from the linearization of the characteristic distribution of a presymplectic structure refining the original one of Souriau. In this model, once specialized to the case of a static electric-like field, the angular momentum and energy given by the associated moment map now correctly restore the spin-orbit coupling term. This is the state-of-the-art of unfinished joint work with Raymond Stora.

  16. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

    2016-04-01

    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  17. Timber in Bridge Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Detkin, Viktoria

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this final year project was to study the properties of timber as a structural material and the suitability of wood in load bearing members for bridge structures. For a case study, an existing timber bridge was selected. Due to its condition the bridge should be replaced. The design of a new bridge with steel beams holding a glulam deck was made. During the case study the replacement of steel beams by glulam timber ones was discussed. Some calculations were made in order to ...

  18. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel

    2018-02-01

    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  19. Timber resources of southwest Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett

    1979-01-01

    This report presents statistics from a 1973 inventory of timber resources of Douglas County and from a 1974 inventory of timber resources of Coos, Curry, Jackson, and Josephine Counties, Oregon. Tables presented are of forest area and of timber volume, growth, and mortality.

  20. Timber frame walls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Brandt, Erik

    2010-01-01

    A ventilated cavity is usually considered good practice for removing moisture behind the cladding of timber framed walls. Timber frame walls with no cavity are a logical alternative as they are slimmer and less expensive to produce and besides the risk of a two-sided fire behind the cladding....... It was found that the specific damages made to the vapour barrier as part of the test did not have any provable effect on the moisture content. In general elements with an intact vapour barrier did not show a critical moisture content at the wind barrier after four years of exposure....

  1. Design of timber groynes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perdok, U.; Crossman, M.; Verhagen, H.J.; Howard, S.; Simm, J.

    2003-01-01

    The performance and durability of timber groynes (or 'groins') is highly dependent on the design and detailing of the structure. Using knowledge and experience developed over generations an effective functional design can be achieved, which may ultimately result in lower whole life costs and provide

  2. Industrialized timber structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    It was recently learned that a number of innovations in structural timber components are available to the construction industry, but that they were largely unknown to bridge designers. The purpose of this study was to develop for the Department a fea...

  3. Growing Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamke, Martin; Evers, Henrik Leander; Stasiuk, David

    2013-01-01

    The contemporary design of timber structures has to answer questions concerning structural stability, production impact and energy implications in ever earlier stages. The interrelation of these levels creates a complexity that is difficult to resolve through contemporary linear parametric...... to integrate the behaviour of networked systems into structures made from wooden material....

  4. REDEFINING ENSO EPISODES BASED ON CHANGED CLIMATE REFERENCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min

    2005-01-01

    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  5. The 1993 RPA timber assessment update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams; John R. Mills

    1995-01-01

    This update reports changes in the Nation's timber resource since the 1989 RPA timber assessment. The timber resource situation is analyzed to provide projections for future cost and availability of timber products to meet demands. Prospective trends in demands for and supplies of timber, and the factors that affect these trends are examined. These include changes...

  6. Global sustainable timber supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince

    2010-01-01

    Industrial timber use has provided timber revenue that has helped make timber supply and demand more sustainable in the leading timber producing regions of the world. Sustainable development implies not consuming more resources today than we can replace tomorrow, but sustainable forest management implies more than merely a non-declining supply of timber. Forests as a...

  7. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.

    2017-12-01

    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  8. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  9. Timber resources of Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal P. Kingsley; Carl E. Mayer

    1970-01-01

    Under the authority of the McSweeney-McNary Forest Research Act of May 22, 1928, and subsequent amendments, the Forest Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture, conducts a series of continuing forest surveys of all states to provide up-to-date information about the forest resources of the Nation. A resurvey of the timber resources of Ohio was made in 1966 and 1967 by...

  10. Historic timber roof structures

    OpenAIRE

    Magina, Miguel Jorge

    2013-01-01

    Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil – Estruturas e Geotecnia This dissertation covers the study of historic timber roof structures in Transylvania area - Romania, the structures type, its elements and connection variety between them. Procedures to study a structure of this category are approached. It is also referred semi and non-destructive tests that can be done to better understand the present wood characteristics, and potential reparation or strengthening...

  11. Curved Folded Plate Timber Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Buri, Hans Ulrich; Stotz, Ivo; Weinand, Yves

    2011-01-01

    This work investigates the development of a Curved Origami Prototype made with timber panels. In the last fifteen years the timber industry has developed new, large size, timber panels. Composition and dimensions of these panels and the possibility of milling them with Computer Numerical Controlled machines shows great potential for folded plate structures. To generate the form of these structures we were inspired by Origami, the Japanese art of paper folding. Common paper tessellations are c...

  12. Monitoring of timber structures: Editorial

    OpenAIRE

    Kurz, Jochen Horst

    2015-01-01

    Timber structures have been in use for centuries, with proven durability. In recent years, timber has become particularly important, due to its standing as a truly renewable material for construction and carbon storage purposes. The material behaviour of wood is known and understood. The current design concepts for timber structures are also well developed. Nevertheless, the underlying processes of the ageing and deterioration of wood are complex, and the anisotropic structure of wood require...

  13. Timber management planning with timber ram and goal programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard C. Field

    1978-01-01

    By using goal programming to enhance the linear programming of Timber RAM, multiple decision criteria were incorporated in the timber management planning of a National Forest in the southeastern United States. Combining linear and goal programming capitalizes on the advantages of the two techniques and produces operationally feasible solutions. This enhancement may...

  14. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available LES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO ACTUELS ET LES ANCIENS ÉVÉNEMENTS SUPER-ENSO. Les événements ENSO actuels et les anciens événements Super-ENSO représentent la redistribution d’énergie et de masse dans le système terrestre, due à l’échange de momentum angulaire entre la Terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère. Les événements El Niño-ENSO actuels montrent une corrélation claire avec des décélérations interannuelles de la vitesse de rotation de la Terre: la durée du jour (LOD augmente. Bien qu’il soit généralement considéré que ces changements de rotation sont causés par l’échange de momentum angulaire avec l’atmosphère, nous démontrons ici qu’une grande partie, peut-être la majeure partie, des variations du LOD sont causées en réalité par l’échange du momentum angulaire entre la terre “solide” et l’hydrosphère dans un systéme couplé de régénération. Ce mécanisme agit aussi sur des échelles de temps qui vont de la décennie au siècle, provoquant des événements Super-ENSO. Plusieurs de ces événements ont été identifiés au cours de l’Holocène. Un événement de plus grande envergure a eu lieu à l’ère médiévale. Au cours de la période qui va de 13.5 à 9.5 Ka, les changements importants peuvent représenter des événements Mega-ENSO. Au cours des âges glaciaires, avec une vitesse de rotation plus grande, il est probable que les événements ENSO-El Niño furent absents. Dans les enregistrements du passé, de courte durée, les empreintes d’événements Super-ENSO doivent étre beaucoup plus fréquents que ceux de véritables ENSO interannuels, simplement parce que ces derniers sont trop brefs et généralement trop légers. ACTUALES EVENTOS EL NIÑO-ENSO Y ANTIGUOS EVENTOS SUPER-ENSO. Los actuales eventos ENSO y los antiguos eventos Super-ENSO representan la redistribución de energía y masa en el sistema terrestre, debido al intercambio de momento angular entre la Tierra “sólida” y la

  15. Timber floors strengthened with concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blass, H.J.; Linden, M.L.R. van der; Schlager, M.

    1998-01-01

    Timber-concrete composite (tcc) beams may be used for the renovation of old timber floors. Although these systems are not new (Pokulka, 1997) and form a simple and practical solution, they are not widely adopted. One of the reasons for this is the Jack of uniform design rules. In this research

  16. Timber designers' manual

    CERN Document Server

    Ozelton, E C

    2008-01-01

    This major reference manual covers both overall and detail design of structural timber, including aspects such as shear deflection, creep, dynamic and lateral stability considerations for flexural members.Available for the first time in paperback, the Third Edition was substantially revised to take account of the many changes since the previous edition was published in 1984. It is based on British Standard BS 5268-2: 2002, which brought design concepts closer to European practice and Eurocode 5.Features of the Third Edition include:* information on bolt values including

  17. Computer Vision for Timber Harvesting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg

    The goal of this thesis is to investigate computer vision methods for timber harvesting operations. The background for developing computer vision for timber harvesting is to document origin of timber and to collect qualitative and quantitative parameters concerning the timber for efficient harvest...... segments. The purpose of image segmentation is to make the basis for more advanced computer vision methods like object recognition and classification. Our second method concerns image classification and we present a method where we classify small timber samples to tree species based on Active Appearance...... to the development of the logTracker system the described methods have a general applicability making them useful for many other computer vision problems....

  18. Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2007-01-01

    The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

  19. The impact of ultraviolet radiation on timber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, B.

    1993-01-01

    Photochemical degradation of timber, the outcome of exposure of timber to ultraviolet radiation, is a light induced chemical and physical decay. Timber is a collection of dead wood cells. Impacts of radiation on the growing tree are therefore outside the scope of this paper, which is primarily concerned with timber as a material. (author). 5 refs. 2 figs

  20. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav

    2011-01-01

    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  1. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  2. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  3. Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2005-01-01

    The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...

  4. Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; čizmar, D.

    2010-01-01

    The present paper outlines results from working group 3 (WG3) in the EU COST Action E55 – ‘Modelling of the performance of timber structures’. The objectives of the project are related to the three main research activities: the identification and modelling of relevant load and environmental...... exposure scenarios, the improvement of knowledge concerning the behaviour of timber structural elements and the development of a generic framework for the assessment of the life-cycle vulnerability and robustness of timber structures....

  5. Hinged roof timber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shestov, P I; Golub, A G; Yefremov, V I

    1980-08-07

    A hinged roof timer is suggested which includes a beam with prong and loop on the end which have openings in the form of ring slits for the distance wedges and round for the pins. In this case the opening of the distance wedge in the ring is arranged in relation to the opening for the pin closer to the end of the beam, and in the prong, in the opposite order. In order to improve the operating quality by guaranteeing active support of the cantilever roof timber without increasing its overall dimensions for the height of the opening for the distance wedge in the prong and the ring, beams are arranged axisymmetrically to the longitudinal axis.

  6. Grip for sawing round timber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-07-01

    This paper describes a device development at Gedling Colliery, Nottinghamshire Area, United Kingdom. It is a gripping attachment, designed to overcome the safety hazards involved in cross cutting timbers with a circular saw.

  7. FRP reinforcement of timber structures

    OpenAIRE

    Schober, Kay-Uwe; Harte, Annette M.; Kliger, Robert; Jockwer, Robert; Xu, Qingfeng; Chen, Jian-Fei

    2015-01-01

    Timber engineering has advanced over recent decades to offer an alternative to traditional materials and methods. The bonding of fibre reinforced plastics (FRP) with adhesives to timber structures for repair and strengthening has many advantages. However, the lack of established design rules has strongly restrained the use of FRP strengthening in many situations, where these could be a preferable option to most traditional techniques. A significant body of research has been carried out in rec...

  8. characterisation and grading of two selected timber species grown

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    Structural timber is the timber used in framing and load bearing ... The main challenge in design with timber as structural member is to .... is the classification of timber based on particular ..... Azadirachta indica leaf extract on serum lipid profile.

  9. Timber resource statistics for southwest Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett; Daniel D. Oswald

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes a 1978 timber-resource inventory of six counties in southwest Washington: Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, Skamania, and Wahkiakum. Detailed tables of forest area, timber volume, growth, mortality, and harvest are presented.

  10. Timber resource statistics for eastern Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett; Daniel D. Oswald

    1983-01-01

    This report summarizes a 1980 timber resource inventory of the 16 forested counties in Washington east of the crest of the Cascade Range. Detailed tables of forest area, timber volume, growth, mortality, and harvest are presented.

  11. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L

    2014-10-29

    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  12. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA

    2016-11-16

    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  13. The timber resources of Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland H. Ferguson; John R. McGuire; John R. McGuire

    1957-01-01

    This is a report on the first comprehensive survey ever made of the timber resources of Rhode Island. It shows, for the years 1952 and 1953, the area and condition of the forest land, the volume and quality of standing timber, the rates of timber growth and mortality, and the extent of timber cutting for forest products. The survey was made by the Forest Service as...

  14. Collapse Analysis of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2008-01-01

    of Structures and a probabilistic modelling of the timber material proposed in the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Due to the framework in the Danish Code the timber structure has to be evaluated with respect to the following criteria where at least one shall...... to criteria a) and b) the timber frame structure has one column with a reliability index a bit lower than an assumed target level. By removal three columns one by one no significant extensive failure of the entire structure or significant parts of it are obtained. Therefore the structure can be considered......A probabilistic based collapse analysis has been performed for a glulam frame structure supporting the roof over the main court in a Norwegian sports centre. The robustness analysis is based on the framework for robustness analysis introduced in the Danish Code of Practice for the Safety...

  15. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi

    2016-04-01

    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  16. The 2005 RPA timber assessment update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Peter J. Ince; John R. Mills; Xiaoping. Zhou

    2007-01-01

    This update reports changes in the Nation's timber resource since the Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States was completed in 2003. Prospective trends in demands for and supplies of timber, and the factors that affect these trends are examined. These trends include changes in the U.S. economy, increased salvage of British Columbia beetle-killed...

  17. Control of borens in mine timbers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yule, R A; Kennedy, M J

    1978-07-01

    The authors studied timber attack in Queensland mines by auger beetles and powder post beetles. When infested timber is taken into a mine the insects thrive at the temperatures (20 to 25 C) and relative humidities (70-90%) they encounter. Seven timber treatments were tested, and all were satisfactory except spraying with wood-preserving oil which contained a moderately effective insecticide.

  18. General notes on ductility in timber structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorissen, A.J.M.; Fragiacomo, M.

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses the implications of ductility in design of timber structures under static and dynamic loading including earthquakes. Timber is a material inherently brittle in bending and in tension, unless reinforced adequately. However connections between timber members can exhibit significant

  19. Timber resource statistics for eastern Washington, 1995.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neil McKay; Patricia M. Bassett; Colin D. MacLean

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes a 1990-91 timber resource inventory of Washington east of the crest of the Cascade Range. The inventory was conducted on all private and public lands except National Forests. Timber resource statistics from National Forest inventories also are presented. Detailed tables provide estimates of forest area, timber volume, growth, mortality, and...

  20. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  1. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2017-07-20

    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  2. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  3. Evaluation of recycled timber members

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas R. Rammer

    1999-01-01

    An experimental study was conducted to evaluate the residual shear capacity of large Douglas-fir timbers used in a military facility in Ardeen Hills, MN. A S-point and 4-point bending test was used to determine the effects of checks and splits on the shear strength capacity. Experimental results are compared to past shear and flexural studies.

  4. Timber management opportunities in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry H. Webster

    1960-01-01

    The Pennsylvania Department of Forests and Waters serves the people in managing state forest lands and in helping private owners manage their forest lands. To produce more timber from Pennsylvania forests, the Department applies many different forestry practices. But the more effort it spends in one direction, the less it can spend in others. So the Department must...

  5. Timber resource statistics for Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally Campbell; Paul Dunham; David. Azuma

    2004-01-01

    This report is a summary of timber resource statistics for all ownerships in Oregon. Data were collected as part of several statewide multiresource inventories, including those conducted by the Pacific Northwest Region (Region 6) on National Forest System lands in Oregon, by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on BLM lands in western Oregon, and by the Pacific...

  6. Understanding Loss Deductions for Timber

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Greene; Michael Jacobson

    1998-01-01

    Forestland owners whose timber has been destroyed may be eligible to take a deduction for the loss on their federal income tax. The loss must be physical in nature and caused by an identifiable event or combination of events that has run its course. There are two types of losses from natural events. Casualty losses are sudden, unexpected, and unusual - as from a fire...

  7. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li

    2017-02-01

    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  8. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

    2015-12-01

    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  9. Timber value—a matter of choice: a study of how end use assumptions affect timber values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John H. Beuter

    1971-01-01

    The relationship between estimated timber values and actual timber prices is discussed. Timber values are related to how, where, and when the timber is used. An analysis demonstrates the relative values of a typical Douglas-fir stand under assumptions about timber use.

  10. System Reliability of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    elements, alternate load path(s) etc. in the structural design. In general these characteristics can have a positive influence on system reliability of a structure however, in Eurocodes ductility is only awarded for concrete and steel structures but not for timber structures. It is well......-know that structural systems can redistribute internal forces due to ductility of a connection, i.e. some additional loads can be carried by the structure. The same effect is also possible for reinforced concrete structures and structures of steel. However, for timber structures codes do not award that ductility......For reduction of the risk of collapse in the event of loss of structural element(s), a structural engineer may take necessary steps to design a collapse-resistant structure that is insensitive to accidental circumstances e.g. by incorporating characteristics like redundancy, ties, ductility, key...

  11. Robustness Analyses of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hald, Frederik

    2013-01-01

    The robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest arising from a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. In order to minimise the likelihood of such disproportionate structural failures, many mo...... with respect to robustness of timber structures and will discuss the consequences of such robustness issues related to the future development of timber structures.......The robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest arising from a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. In order to minimise the likelihood of such disproportionate structural failures, many...... modern building codes consider the need for the robustness of structures and provide strategies and methods to obtain robustness. Therefore, a structural engineer may take necessary steps to design robust structures that are insensitive to accidental circumstances. The present paper summaries issues...

  12. Implementing CITES regulations for timber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blundell, Arthur G

    2007-03-01

    Foresters are currently confronted with a new challenge. For the first time a commonly traded timber species has been listed on the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). At the 12th Conference of the Parties in November 2002, countries voted 68 to 30 to place the premier timber species of Latin America, big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King [Meliaceae]), on CITES Appendix II. Under Appendix II regulations, trade in mahogany requires that exporting countries verify that each shipment was legally obtained and that its harvest was non-detrimental to the survival of the species. Unfortunately, implementation has been weak, in part because countries have yet to develop a common, pragmatic, cost-effective system to make the legal and non-detriment findings. This paper recommends what such a system might include.

  13. Forests, timber and rural livelihoods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Christian Pilegaard; Pouliot, Mariève; Marfo, Emmanuel

    2015-01-01

    Based on detailed income data of 478 rural households, the nexus between forest, trees and rural livelihoods in Ghana is investigated and applied to assess implications of the Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) between the EU and Ghana on illegal logging. It is found that, after crops...... and benefits to trees on farm and fallow land to those occupying and cultivating the land. Such efforts would provide incentive for timber production and thus enhance rural livelihoods, while combatting illegal logging, deforestation and forest degradation....

  14. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  15. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.

    2017-12-01

    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  16. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota

    2013-04-01

    We use statistical analysis to show statistically significant relationship between the boreal winter MEI index of ENSO and HadCRUT3 temperature difference between Northern and Southern hemispheres (NH - SH) during the preceding summer. Correlation values increase (in absolute terms) if the correlated time periods are increased from month to seasonal length. For example December and January (DJ) MEI values anticorrelate stronger with the preceding MJJA period than with any of the four months taken separately. We believe this is further evidence that the correlation is caused by a real physical process as increase of the averaging period tends to reduce statistical noise. The motivation for looking for such a relationship comes from review of literature on paleoclimatic ENSO behavior. We have noticed that in many cases relatively cold NH coincided with "strong ENSO" (frequent El Niños), for example the Ice Age periods and Little Ice Age. On the other hand periods of relatively warm NH (the Holocene climate optimum or Medieval Climate Anomaly) are coincident with frequent or even "permanent" La Niñas. This relationship suggest the influence of the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on the frequency of El Niños. The simplest physical mechanism of the relationship is that the positive (negative) NH-SH temperature difference causes a north (south) shift of ITCZ with a parallel shift of trade wind zones. The North-South orographic difference between the Panama Isthmus and the South America may cause stronger (weaker) trade winds in Eastern Tropical Pacific increasing (decreasing) the thermochemical tilt which, in turn, causes a more negative (positive) ENSO values. Of course this may be only a first approximation of the real mechanism of this "teleconnection". The correlations we have found are not strong even if statistically significant. For example, the MJJA NH-SH temperature vs. DJ MEI correlation has r = -0.28 implying it explains only 8% of boreal

  17. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

    2014-05-01

    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  18. Selection of Nepalese Timber for Small Wind Turbine Blade Construction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sinha, R.; Acharya, Parash; Freere, Peter

    2010-01-01

    , weathering effect on coatings, price, growth and availability of the timber. Mechanical properties such as Young's modulus of elasticity, breaking strength, breaking strain and Brinell's hardness of selected Nepalese timbers are presented. The effects of weathering on timbers without coating...

  19. Timber products output and timber harvests in Alaska: projections for 1992-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.J. Brooks; R.W. Haynes

    1994-01-01

    Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for raw material, and timber harvest by owner are developed from a trend-based analysis. By using a spread-sheet model, material flows in the Alaska forest sectorare fully accounted for. Demand for Alaska national forest timber is projected and depends on product output and harvest by other owners. Key...

  20. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  1. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

    2018-05-01

    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  2. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.

    2016-11-15

    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  3. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  4. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.

    2004-01-01

    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  5. Operability and location of Wisconsin's timber resource.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerold T. Hahn; Mark H. Hansen

    1989-01-01

    Data collected during the 1983 Wisconsin Statewide forest inventory were used to examine operability of the timber resource based on seven operability components. Operability is the ease or difficulty of managing or harvesting timber because of physical conditions in the stand or on the site.

  6. Timber resource of Missouri's Prairie, 1972.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerold T. Hahn; Alexander Vasilevsky

    1975-01-01

    The third timber inventory of Missouri's Prairie Forest Survey Unit shows substantial declines in both growing-stock and sawtimber volumes between 1959 and 1972. Commercial forest area declined by one-fifth. Presents highlights and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, and use in 1972.

  7. Operability and location of Michigan's timber resource.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark H. Hansen; Jerold T. Hahn

    1987-01-01

    Operability is the ease or difficulty of managing or harvesting timber because of physical conditions in the stand or on the site. Data collected during the 1980 Michigan statewide forest inventory were used to examine operability of the timber resource based on seven operability components.

  8. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  9. Tall timber building technologies in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorissen, A.J.M.; Leijten, A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    In the last few decades, structural timber for residential buildings has lost popularity because of problems related to floor vibrations, acoustics and fire resistance. In recent years, however, solutions to these problems have been developed and timber-framed housing is becoming increasingly

  10. Timber-concrete composite floor systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, M.L.R. van der; Blass, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    Timber-concrete composite (tcc) beams may be used for the renovation of old timber floors. Although these systems are a simple and practical solution, they are not widely adopted. One of the reasons for this is the lack of uniform design mies. In this research programme shear tests on four different

  11. Optimal control of raw timber production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Kolenka

    1978-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the possibility of optimal planning and control of timber harvesting activ-ities with mathematical optimization models. The separate phases of timber harvesting are represented by coordinated models which can be used to select the optimal decision for the execution of any given phase. The models form a system whose components are connected and...

  12. Timber resource statistics for western Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffin D. MacLean; Patricia M. Bassett; Glenn. Yeary

    1992-01-01

    This report summarizes a 1988-90 timber resource inventory of 19 counties in western Washington: Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, and Whatcom. Detailed tables of forest area, timber volume, growth, mortality, and harvest are presented.

  13. Aesthetic Qualities of Cross Laminated Timber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bejder, Anne Kirkegaard

    to its sustainable profile. In parallel to this, new production methods and further refined timber products have been developed. Among these are the engineered timber-based product Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) that show enhanced structural properties compared to unrefined timber. However, the question...... an undefined aesthetic potential that may innovate how we construct and perceive timber architecture, the overall aim of the thesis is to inquire into the architectural and aesthetic qualities of CLT. Through three chapters this thesis examines and discusses 1) the architectural qualities of CLT, 2......) the materiality of CLT, and 3) how one can deal with these qualitative aspects in the design process. This leads to: firstly, the development of an explicit model to help structuring the analysis and evaluation of the materiality of CLT, and secondly, a clarification and articulation of the aesthetic qualities...

  14. Nailed timber beams with I composed section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Luís Nunes de Góes

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The employment of built-up timber beams, made of commercial dimensions pieces, is becoming increasingly important in timber structures in Brazil, mainly due to the ever-growing scarcity of timber elements in larger sizes. The built-up system has vast application, from beams for residential buildings to girders for small bridges. The objective of this work is the theoretical and experimental study of nailed timber beams with composed cross section I. The design procedure of EUROCODE 5/93 and NBR 7190/97 are shown and evaluated, as well as the theory about the subject matter. The experimental evaluation of the theoretical models was made by means of bending tests in prototypes of built-up timber beams. The obtained results shows that the EUROCODE 5/93 procedure is the most indicated for evaluating effective bending stiffness, normal and shear stresses as well as the load on fasteners.

  15. Reliability Analysis of Structural Timber Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    2000-01-01

    Structural systems like timber trussed rafters and roof elements made of timber can be expected to have some degree of redundancy and nonlinear/plastic behaviour when the loading consists of for example snow or imposed load. In this paper this system effect is modelled and the statistic...... of variation. In the paper a stochastic model is described for the strength of a single piece of timber taking into account the stochastic variation of the strength and stiffness with length. Also stochastic models for different types of loads are formulated. First, simple representative systems with different...... types of redundancy and non-linearity are considered. The statistical characteristics of the load bearing capacity are determined by reliability analysis. Next, more complex systems are considered modelling the mechanical behaviour of timber roof elements I stressed skin panels made of timber. Using...

  16. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  17. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N

    2010-01-01

    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  18. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.

    2016-01-01

    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  19. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder

    2006-01-01

    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  20. Tree-mendous Timber Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    Funded and administered by NASA, the Affiliated Research Center (ARC) program transfers geospatial technologies from the Space Agency and participating universities to commercial companies, non-profit and trade organizations, and tribal governments. The origins of the ARC program date back to 1988, when NASA's Stennis Space Center initiated the Visiting Investigator Program to bring industry closer to spatial information technologies. The success of this trial program led to an expansion into the ARC program, whose goal is to enhance competitiveness of U.S. industries through more efficient use of remote sensing and related technologies. NASA's ARC program served as the foundation for the development of International Hardwood Resources, which then grew into Falcon Informatics with the acquisition of a technology from a European software company and a change of business models. Doylestown, Pennsylvania-based Falcon Informatics is now a world-leading information services company that combines in-depth timber industry experience with state-of-the-art software to serve the needs of national governments, international paper companies, and timber-investment management organizations.

  1. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  2. 36 CFR 223.32 - Timber sale operating plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Timber sale operating plan... SALE AND DISPOSAL OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM TIMBER Timber Sale Contracts Contract Conditions and Provisions § 223.32 Timber sale operating plan. Sale contracts with a term of 2 years or more shall provide...

  3. Inventory analysis of the timber industry in Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshun, J.F.; Potting, J.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Background, aim, and scope The timber sector, i.e., forestry and timber industry, plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of Ghana through timber products export. Timber production in this sector is associated with increasing environmental burdens in terms of use of materials and

  4. Structural Reliability of the Nigerian Grown Abura Timber Bridge ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Structural reliability analysis was carried out on the Nigerian grown Abura timber, to ascertain its structural performance as timber bridge beams. Samples of the Nigerian grown Abura timber were bought from timber market, seasoned naturally and their structural/strength properties were determined at a moisture content of ...

  5. CONTEMPORARY SLOVENIAN TIMBER ARCHITECTURE INTERNATIONAL RECOGNIZED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manja Kitek Kuzman

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The book presents Slovenia' s contemporary timber architecture. Thanks to its abundant forests, Slovenia has preserved the tradition of wood construction. As much as 60% of its surface is covered by forests. Slovenia is also the third most forested country in Europe. The high share of forest-covered surface allows for a sustainable production of high-quality wood. In the past, wood was used primarily in the construction of farm buildings, but now timber architecture is used for everything from residences and office buildings to public buildings such as community centres and schools. Timber construction is becoming increasingly popular. Apart from larger companies taking this approach, a great number of wooden houses have sprung up, built either on personal initiative or with the support of carpenter workshops. Slovenian timber architecture has taken a new approach to environmental and energy-efficiency problems and received great international recognition. The book discusses over fifty projects built over a ten-year period, and includes descriptions, photographs, and plans. The projects include residential areas, administration, and office, as well as tourist, educational, and industrial buildings. Timber architecture is presented as an integral part of the Slovenian landscape. The monograph will be useful to designers and future experts in their planning of optimal timber buildings and will highlight the main benefits of using timber construction.

  6. Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

  7. The Materiality of Novel Timber Architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bejder, Anne Kirkegaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Wraber, Ida Kristina

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, wood as a building material has gained renewed focus and, in parallel, new production methods and further refined timber products have been developed. Many of these novel timber building materials have gained significantly enhanced technical qualities, and the question is whether...... this is at the expense of wood’s sensuous and poetic qualities. The proposed method to deal with these questions is to develop a discursive model that can clarify aspects essential for analyzing and discussing the materiality of timber in its contemporary engineered forms. Firstly, this paper presents a theoretical...

  8. Reliability and Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cizmar, Dean; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    In the last few decades there have been intensely research concerning reliability of timber structures. This is primarily because there is an increased focus on society on sustainability and environmental aspects. Modern timber as a building material is also being competitive compared to concrete...... and steel. However, reliability models applied to timber were always related to individual components but not the systems. as any real structure is a complex system, system behaviour must be of a particular interest. In the chapter 1 of this document an overview of stochastic models for strength and loads...... (deterministic, probabilistic and risk based approaches) of the robustness are given. Chapter 3 deals more detailed with the robustness of timber structures....

  9. Statistical Analysis of Data for Timber Strengths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Hoffmeyer, P.

    Statistical analyses are performed for material strength parameters from approximately 6700 specimens of structural timber. Non-parametric statistical analyses and fits to the following distributions types have been investigated: Normal, Lognormal, 2 parameter Weibull and 3-parameter Weibull...

  10. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

    2018-05-01

    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  11. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  12. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  13. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  14. Profitability of timber harvesting and timber transportation enterprises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajamaeki, J.

    1996-01-01

    In co-operation with the major companies contracting out forestry work and Statistics Finland, Metsaeteho carried out a project with the objective of analysing the economic profitability of timber harvesting and transportation enterprises in 1994. The calculation of profitability was based on utilisation of last livelihoods taxation data (EVR) that Statistics Finland was in possession of. The basic material comprised data that the companies contracting out forestry work had full-time entrepreneurs. There were 255 forestry machine contractor enterprises and 270 trucking enterprises. Statistics Finland was responsible for computations of the results of the project. The calculation of the indicators of profitability was based on the recommendations of Yritystutkimusneuvottelukunta, a committee looking into the functioning of enterprises. The year 1994 was a good year from the viewpoint of profitability of both forestry machine contractors as well as trucking enterprises. With full depreciations and salary adjustments attended to, both enterprise groups still showed a mean profitability of ca. 8 %. The yield of invested capital was ca. 25 %. The differences in profitability among enterprises were great in both groups and in different parts of the country

  15. Alabama's timber industry - an assessment of timber product output and use, 1995

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tony G. Johnson; Jim R. Gober; J. Stephen Nix

    1998-01-01

    Output of Industrial Timber Products.Note: The reader must understand that certain terms, namely-retained, export, import, production, and receipts-have specialized meanings and relationships. unique to the Forest Inventory and Analysis Units across the country that deal with timber products output.In 1995, the combined...

  16. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  17. Value of timber continues to increase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2007-01-01

    The state owned company, Lesy SR (state forests) enjoys great power in the timber industry. It can influence which timber processing companies in Slovakia will be successful and which will not have easy access to the raw material. It manages half of the forests in Slovakia. It is the only seller of timber in this country. Four years ago, the former cabinet appointed banker, Karol Vins, as the director of the company. And he started making changes. He centralized the timber business and thousands of people left the company. The goal was clear -to increase quality and efficiency. The economic performance of the company improved. The company has finally managed to post a profit. Last year, the government changed and so has the director of the company The former banker was replaced by a new head from a forestry research background, Jozef Mindas. He approves of some of the changes introduced by his predecessor and plans to continue implementing them, although there also those he would like to change. The new manager is not concerned regarding the big change from research where he used to work in the past to director of a big company and rejects the allegation that he was nominated by HZDS. I was approached as an expert and I won a tender. I have never been a member of a political party, he stated. He appreciates that his predecessor managed to revitalize the company, which was assisted by the positive effect of out-sourcing. But on the other hand, during transformation forests were not divided up correctly. The division into units did not always take into account the specific requirements of forestry, i.e. some employees in forest units have too much work and some, working in another forest unit, less. We have to make sure that the workload is approximately at the same level everywhere. He is aware of the fact that Lesy SR, which controls two thirds of the timber market, effectively decides which factory will succeed and which one will not. But he adds that Lesy SR do

  18. Reinforcement and recovery of timber structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Alves Dias

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Preservation of timber structures is a reason for constant concern because their deterioration often involves compromising the historical patrimony, besides endangering the safety of the structure, and consequently, of their users. Many are the examples of churches, residences or other constructions where this manifestation is a fact. The technique of reinforcing structurally endangered pieces with the addition of natural or synthetic fibers, is an alternative that has been researched. In the group of synthetic fibers, fiberglass, carbon and aramid ones are included. On the other hand, it has been frequent in the restoration of old buildings, especially in Europe, the employment of materials that were not available in the past, aiming to achieve structural, acoustic and aesthetic benefits. On an existing timber structure floor, a concrete slab has been carried out, with an appropriate connection system among the parts, constituting the composite timber-concrete structures. This alternative has been considered as extraordinarily viable, because it gathers a series of convenience related with the durability and it presents better mechanic performance than conventional timber structures. In this work, the state-of-the-art of the use of fibers as structural reinforcement and of the timber-concrete composite structures, is presented.

  19. Development of Timber Property Classification Based on the End-Use with Reference to Twenty Sri Lankan Timber Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ND Ruwanpathirana

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available An investigation was carried out on selected 20 timber species of Sri Lanka to study different wood properties, i.e., wood density, modulus of rapture, modulus of elasticity, compression parallel to grain, shrinkage/movement, workability (sawing, nailing, sanding and finishing, treatability of preservative, timber durability, timber texture by vessel diameter and some gross properties, timber colour and present timber uses. Based on the results, an attempt was made to classify the studied timber species into property levels. The final objective of this study was to develop relationships between the end-uses of timber and their property requirements and levels with reference to 20 Sri Lankan timber species.   Timber selection for the use in Sri Lanka is species-oriented and sometimes it is based on the traditional use. Based on wood properties of 20 Sri Lankan timber species selected, an attempt was made to recognise the most important wood properties and their levels to develop a four end-use property classification. In general, the proposed end-use property classification in this study could be differentiated as (i. for building construction, (ii. for furniture and joinery (iii. for light construction, and (iv. for miscellaneous uses. Among the selected timber species, Dipterocarpus zeylanicus is eminently suitable for under-water work. Eucalyptus microcorys is regarded as one of the best timbers for dancing floors. These specialty and causative factors of timber, however, must be explored and documented in order to prepare end-use property classification for miscellaneous use.

  20. Economic implications of manufacturing sawed ties and timbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence D. Garrett; Lawrence D. Garrett

    1969-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss those factors that affect the profitability of manufacturing timbers and show that the combined manufacture of both lumber and timbers will provide a greater daily income than the manufacture of lumber alone.

  1. Timber resource statistics for the Olympic Peninsula, Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett; Daniel D. Oswald

    1961-01-01

    This report summarizes a 1978-79 timber resource inventory of five counties in the Olympic Peninsula of Washington: Clallam, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Mason, and Thurston. Detailed tables of forest area, timber volume, growth, mortality, and harvest are presented.

  2. Methodology for safety evaluation of existing timber elements

    OpenAIRE

    Sousa, Hélder S.

    2013-01-01

    Tese de doutoramento em Engenharia Civil The past decades have seen a renewed interest in timber research related topics. As instance, timber engineering is not only confined to the design of new construction with innovative wood based products, but also an increasing awareness for the preservation of existing timber structures is visible in nowadays society. Therefore, arises the need for a better understanding of timber performance as a construction material aiming at a bette...

  3. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The major features in development of the "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) involve oscillation of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere in an essentially unpredictable (chaotic) fashion. The system moves between extremes of the so-called "warm events" lasting one or two years and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold-events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Historical data indicate that ENSO years as experienced by the Island of Java are either much warmer than non-ENSO years or only slightly, if at all, warmer than normal (non-ENSO) years. Hot-dry years within the ENSO warm event cycle are almost always followed by cooler wet years and vice versa. This pattern also extends to include the year immediately following the terminal year of an ENSO warm event set. The initial year of an ENSO warm event set may be either hot with a long dry season or relatively cool (nearer to the temperature of a non-ENSO year) and having a short dry season. In recent years, since 1950, of the 9 ENSO warm events, the initial year tends to have been hot and dry for 6 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991) and neutral or cool and wet for 3 (1968, 1976, 1986). An area of 88,000 ha burned in 1991 (Jakarta Post 30 November 1991) largely in Kalimantan in association with the 1991-1992 ENSO event, an extensive pall of smoke developed over Kalimantan, Singapore and Malaysia during September-October of 1991. Surface vegetation-based fires continued to burn in East Kalimantan as of 29 April 1992 and extended into the 1992 dry season, in response to the ENSO conditions carrying forward from 1991. The increasing annual trend in air-temperature exhibited by the mean monthly values over the period 1866-1993, for the Jakarta and the Semarang data taken together is 1.64°C (0.0132°C per year from 25.771 to 27.409°C). The major

  4. Architectural and structural qualities in timber joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jesper Thøger; Christensen, Mogens Fiil; Damkilde, Lars

    2016-01-01

    Design of joints in timber structures is crucial to reach both elegant and structural efficient designs. Design of joints should therefore be an integral part of the conceptual design phase. Traditionally this is not the case, and joints are often solely designed and analysed in the engineering...... but also increase timbers competitiveness in the building industry. The paper is part of an ongoing research project aiming at providing tools for an integrated design process for timber structures. The focus of the paper is to identify how structure and its joints contributes to architecture and vice...... design phase. The result is joints that function structurally but do not add value to the design, and may even compromise the architectural ideas. With an approach, integrating both structural and architectural design from the beginning, one should not only gain better structures and architecture...

  5. Probabilistic Modelling of Timber Material Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber; Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2001-01-01

    The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for grading of timber in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics play an important role...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and the format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures...

  6. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2016-03-26

    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  7. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya

    2017-01-16

    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  8. 36 CFR 223.62 - Timber purchaser road construction credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... § 223.62 Timber purchaser road construction credit. Appraisal may also establish stumpage value as if... timber is appraised and sold on such basis, purchaser credit for road construction, not to exceed the estimated construction cost of such roads or other developments specified in the timber sale contract, shall...

  9. Safety of timber : An analysis of quality control options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovryga, A.; Stapel, P.; Van de Kuilen, J.W.G.

    2014-01-01

    The quality assurance of timber properties is important for the safety of timber structures. In the current study, the quality control options of timber are analysed under the prism of the different growth regions. Therefore, these options - machine and output control - are simulated in accordance

  10. Modified traditional Japanese timber joint system with retrofitting abilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shiratori, T.; Komatsu, K.; Leijten, A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Embedment is a key feature of timber joints envisioned as the ultimate solution in avoiding the devastating full collapse of timber structures in seismic countries. The Japanese traditional timber post-and-beam structural system utilizes moment-resisting joints based on embedment. Despite the

  11. Effect of timber supplies on the efficiency of coal mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulish, S A; Ponikarov, V D

    1977-01-01

    An analysis is made of the system of supplying coal mining production associations with timber materials. The potential for greater efficiency in the use and processing of timber is indicated. The possibility of using methods of mathematical modelling and forecasting to improve the efficiency of supplying timber to coal associations is demonstrated. 1 table.

  12. California’s forest products industry and timber harvest, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd A. Morgan; Jason P. Brandt; Kathleen E. Songster; Charles E. Keegan; Glenn A. Christensen

    2012-01-01

    This report traces the flow of California’s 2006 timber harvest through the primary wood products industry (i.e., firms that process timber into manufactured products such as lumber, as well as facilities such as pulp mills and particleboard plants, which use the wood fiber or mill residue directly from timber processors) and provides a description of the structure,...

  13. Enviromentally Sound Timber Extracting Techniques for Small Tree Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihai Wang

    1999-01-01

    Due to large area disturbed and great deal of energy cost during-its operations, introducing or applying the appropriate timber extracting techniques could significantly reduce the impact of timber extraction operations to forest environment while pursuing the reasonable operation costs. Four environmentally sound timber extraction techniques for small tree harvesting...

  14. Recommendations for sustainable development of non-timber forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gina H. Mohammed

    2001-01-01

    Non-timber forest products--or NTFPs--are considered here to be botanical products harvested or originating from forest-based species, but excluding primary timber products, industrial boards and composites, and paper products. A recent study of non-timber forest products in Ontario, Canada, identified at least 50 types of NTFPs and hundreds of specific products used...

  15. Aggregate Timber Supply: From the Forest to the Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Subhrendu K. Pattanayak

    2003-01-01

    Timber supply modeling is a means of formalizing the production behavior of heterogeneous landowners managing a wide variety of forest types and vintages within a region. The critical challenge of timber supply modeling is constructing theoretically valid and empirically practical aggregate descriptions of harvest behavior. Understanding timber supply is essential for...

  16. Robustness Analysis of Timber Truss Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajčić, Vlatka; Čizmar, Dean; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2010-01-01

    The present paper discusses robustness of structures in general and the robustness requirements given in the codes. Robustness of timber structures is also an issues as this is closely related to Working group 3 (Robustness of systems) of the COST E55 project. Finally, an example of a robustness...... evaluation of a widespan timber truss structure is presented. This structure was built few years ago near Zagreb and has a span of 45m. Reliability analysis of the main members and the system is conducted and based on this a robustness analysis is preformed....

  17. Timber Elements: Traditional and Modern Strengthening Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca Hohan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The main idea of this paper is to analyse the means for the rehabilitation of our cultural heritage timber structures. Several methods together with their application techniques are described, and also, the reasons for what these strengthening operations become imminent at a point. First of all, the necessity of the timber structural elements strengthening is explained through a short presentation of the factors which are degrading the material. Then, certain precautions and strengthening procedures are presented, all involving the usage of traditional materials like wood, metal, or concrete, and of modern materials like fiber reinforced polymeric composite.

  18. Robustness of Long Span Reciprocal Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balfroid, Nathalie; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    engineer may take necessary steps to design robust structures that are insensitive to accidental circumstances. The present paper makes a discussion of such robustness issues related to the future development of reciprocal timber structures. The paper concludes that these kind of structures can have...... a potential as long span timber structures in real projects if they are carefully designed with respect to the overall robustness strategies.......Robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest due to a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. The interest has also been facilitated due to recently severe structural failures...

  19. Statistical Analysis of Data for Timber Strengths

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2003-01-01

    Statistical analyses are performed for material strength parameters from a large number of specimens of structural timber. Non-parametric statistical analysis and fits have been investigated for the following distribution types: Normal, Lognormal, 2 parameter Weibull and 3-parameter Weibull...... fits to the data available, especially if tail fits are used whereas the Log Normal distribution generally gives a poor fit and larger coefficients of variation, especially if tail fits are used. The implications on the reliability level of typical structural elements and on partial safety factors...... for timber are investigated....

  20. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  1. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.

    2007-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  2. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  3. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.

    2005-01-01

    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  4. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  5. Projected US timber and primary forest product market impacts of climate change mitigation through timber set-asides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2013-01-01

    Whereas climate change mitigation involving payments to forest landowners for accumulating carbon on their land may increase carbon stored in forests, it will also affect timber supply and prices. This study estimated the effect on US timber and primary forest product markets of hypothetical timber set-aside scenarios where US forest landowners would be paid to forego...

  6. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

    2018-01-01

    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  7. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide

    2017-01-01

    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  8. Rent-seeking and timber rights allocation in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Kirsten; Hansen, Christian Pilegaard

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes types, processes and importance of rent-seeking in the allocation of timber rights in Ghana. It is based on an analysis of 30 interviews with large-, medium- and small-scale timber firms, as well as government officials and timber industry organizations in Ghana. The paper...... documents that timber rights allocation is associated with both bureaucratic and political corruption. The latter comes in two forms. First, the findings suggest that well-established relationships exist between politicians and senior bureaucrats on the one side and large-scale timber firms on the other...

  9. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  10. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  11. Standard plans for timber bridge superstructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    James P. Wacker; Matthew S. Smith

    2001-01-01

    These standardized bridge plans are for superstructures consisting of treated timber. Seven superstructure types are includes: five longitudinal and two transverse deck systems. Both HS520 and HS25 loadings are included, along with L/360 and L/500 deflection criteria.

  12. Timber resource of Minnesota's Prairie unit, 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerold T. Hahn; W. Brad Smith

    1980-01-01

    The fourth inventory of Minnesota's Prairie Unit shows that although commercial forest area decreased 31.7% between 1962 and 1977, growing-stock volume increased 22%. This report gives statistical highlights and contains detailed tables of forest area as well as timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, and use.

  13. Projecting Timber Inventory at the Product Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1999-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The research presented describes a methodology for distributing the volume on each FIA (USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis...

  14. Residual load carrying capacity of timber joints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuilen, J.W.G. van de

    1999-01-01

    Timber joints that have been preloaded for 2 to 8 years have been short term tested in accordance with EN 26891. The applied load levels varied between 30% and 50% of the average short term strength. The study comprised nailed, toothed-plate and split-ring joints. All joints were made of spruce and

  15. Commercial lumber, round timbers, and ties

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Kretschmann

    2010-01-01

    When sawn, a log yields round timber, ties, or lumber of varying quality. This chapter presents a general discussion of grading, standards, and specifications for these commercial products. In a broad sense, commercial lumber is any lumber that is bought or sold in the normal channels of commerce. Commercial lumber may be found in a variety of forms, species, and types...

  16. Grading timber and glued structural members

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Kretschmann; Roland Hernandez

    2006-01-01

    Because of its biological nature, which is influenced by many factors as discussed in Chapter 6, the quality of timber is enormously variable. Therefore, some sort of arrangement or classification must be undertaken prior to its use, in order to get the most out of this valuable resource. It is obvious that not all lumber can be used for the same purposes because not...

  17. Pocket Checklists of Indonesian timber trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prawira, Soewanda A.; Tantra, I.G.M.; Whitmore, T.C.

    1984-01-01

    Indonesia as yet does not have a comprehensive account of the forest trees which reach timber size (35 cm dbh = 14 inch or 105 cm gbh = 42 inch). A project has been started in August 1983 by the Botany Section of the Forest Research Institute in Bogor, Indonesia, to prepare pocket checklists of the

  18. Non-timber forest products in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katie Kamelamela; James B. Friday; Tamara Ticktin; Ashley. Lehman

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian forests provide a wide array of non-timber forest products for both traditional and modern uses. Flowers, vines, and ferns are collected for creating garlands or lei for hula dances and parades. Lei made from materials gathered in the forest are made for personal use and sold, especially during graduation times. Bamboo is harvested for structures and for...

  19. IMPACTS OF TIMBER LEGALITY VERIFICATION SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF TIMBER INDUSTRY AND PRIVATE FOREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvida Yosefi Suryandari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available International market requires producers to proof the legality of their wood products to address the issues of illegal logging and illegal trade. Timber Legality Verification System (TLVS has been prepared by the Government of Indonesia that covering the upstream and downstream wood industries. This paper aims to evaluate gaps in the implementation of TLVS policy and its impact on the sustainability of timber industry. This study was using gap, descriptive and costs-structure analyzes. The study was conducted in three provinces, namely: DKI Jakarta, West Java and D.I. Yogyakarta. Research found that the effectiveness of the TLVS implementation was low due to relatively rapid policy changes. This situation became disincetive for investments in timber business. Private sector perceived that TLVS policy should be applied in the upstream of timber business. Hence, the industry and market in the downstream have not been fully support to this system. Furthermore, TLVS policy implementation was considered ineffective by timber industry as well as private forest managers, especially by micro industry and smallholder private forests. This situation threatened the sustainability of timber industry and private forests. Therefore, Institutions should be strengthened in order to improve the quality of human resources and the competitiveness of products.

  20. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  1. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu

    2014-05-01

    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  2. Vilka typer av nyheter har drivit stora prisförändringar hos börsnoterade europeiska fotbollsklubbar? : Är prisförändringarna ekonomiskt rationella?

    OpenAIRE

    Dagberg, Michael; Yap, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Bakgrund: Det som skiljer fotbollsbranschen från övriga företag är att framgång i inte enbart mäts i ökade marknadsandelar eller intäkter utan även utifrån sportsliga framgångar. Traditionell finansteori med utgångspunkt i ekonomisk rationalitet kontrasterar en känslobaserad beteendeekonomi för att förklara vad som driver fotbollsklubbars aktiepriser. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att identifiera och kartlägga vilka typer av nyheter som har drivit stora prisförändringar och analysera om det ...

  3. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  4. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  5. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  6. Framework for Robustness Assessment of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical framework for the design and analysis of robustness of timber structures. This is actualized by a more4 frequent use of advanced types of timber structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in the case of failure. Combined with increased requirements...... to efficiency in design and execution followed by increased risk of human errors has made the need of requirements to robustness of new structures essential. Further, the collapse of the Ballerup Super Arena, the bad Reichenhall Ice-Arena and a number of other structural systems during the last 10 years has...... increased the interest in robustness. Typically, modern structural design codes require that ‘the consequence of damages to structures should not be disproportional to the causes of the damages’. However, although the importance of robustness for structural design is widely recognized, the code requirements...

  7. Timber Curtain: Designing with material capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lahmy, Maya; Larsen, Niels Martin

    2015-01-01

    of the generative phase to fabrication of the artefact. Brought together by various conceptual and structural elements the Timber Curtain forms a 4.5 x 2.5 x 0.5 m construct of assembled wood components, digitally crafted through advanced production techniques. Concerned with materiality and processing of the wood......Timber Curtain explores relations between digital precision and material indeterminacy. It is an installation engaging spatially through its presence as a 1:1 architectural component as well as it is exploring novel technologies in the architectural design process from the very beginning...... an associative digital model that could gather and compute in put from material behaviour and out put manufacturing data was scripted. This method enables material capacity to be pushed to the limit of its performance allowing novel sensuous and structural qualities to emerge. The method is developed with use...

  8. Robustness Assessment of Spatial Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2012-01-01

    Robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest due to a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. In order to minimise the likelihood of such disproportionate structural failures many modern buildi...... to robustness of spatial timber structures and will discuss the consequences of such robustness issues related to the future development of timber structures.......Robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest due to a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. In order to minimise the likelihood of such disproportionate structural failures many modern building...... codes consider the need for robustness of structures and provide strategies and methods to obtain robustness. Therefore a structural engineer may take necessary steps to design robust structures that are insensitive to accidental circumstances. The present paper summaries issues with respect...

  9. Probabilistic Modeling of Graded Timber Material Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, M. H.; Köhler, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2004-01-01

    The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for quality grading in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be quantified and compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics plays...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and their format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures....

  10. Timber drying kilns using solar energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-15

    The objective of this project was to research the potential for solar kilns for drying timber in tropical countries (Guyana, Honduras and Belize) and produce a manual which will provide the knowledge necessary to build and operate a solar kiln. The main output of the project is the manual Solar Heated Timber Drying Kilns - a Manual on their Design and Operation. The manual covers:- background information; selection of construction materials; methods of kiln construction; kiln operation and maintenance procedure. The manual has been designed to provide the necessary knowledge and confidence to build and operate a solar kiln, and ultimately benefit from an improved product. Specifically, the manual will benefit small building construction units, furniture and joinery manufacturers and sawmill operators in developing and developed countries worldwide. (author)

  11. Timbered masonry for earthquake resistance in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Dutu, A.; Gomes Ferreira, J.; Guerreiro, L.; Branco, F.; Gonçalves, A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Europe is a continent that is subject to significant seismic activity. Thus, the buildings’ seismic behaviour must be analysed, including not only the new structures, designed under more rigorous codes, but also older ones. This article examines a traditional type of building that uses timber frame/masonry, which is found in Portugal, Turkey, France, England, Greece, Romania, Italy, Spain, Germany and Scandinavia. Although the structures differ in terms of construction details, their struc...

  12. Timbered masonry for earthquake resistance in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Dutu, A.; Gomes Ferreira, J.; Guerreiro, L.; Branco, F.; Gonçalves, A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Europe is a continent that is subject to significant seismic activity. Thus, the buildings’ seismic behaviour must be analysed, including not only the new structures, designed under more rigorous codes, but also older ones. This article examines a traditional type of building that uses timber frame/masonry, which is found in Portugal, Turkey, France, England, Greece, Romania, Italy, Spain, Germany and Scandinavia. Although the structures differ in terms of construction details, their str...

  13. Roof timber for fortifying mining works

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shirokov, A P; Kuntsevich, V IK; Pishchulin, V V; Seryi, A M; Volkov, P A

    1981-05-15

    The roof timber for fortifying mining works includes spring-mounted hinged elements made from a special rolled metal. In order to increase the carrying capacity of the support by increasing the deformation threshold, the springs are mounted by their expanded section to the lower side of the hinge; their ends are connected in turn to the elements made from the special rolled metal on both sides of the hinge.

  14. Timber joints under long-term loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldborg, T.; Johansen, M.

    This report describes tests and results from stiffness and strength testing of splice joints under long-term loading. During two years of loading the spicimens were exposed to cyclically changing relative humidity. After the loading period the specimens were short-term tested. The connectors were...... integral nail-plates and nailed steel and plywood gussets. The report is intended for designers and researchers in timber engineering....

  15. State forest timber sales in 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Office National des Forets

    2007-01-01

    For the first time since the 1999 storms, forest owners have experienced a favourable market. The combination of buoyant demand for both industrial round-wood and timber and consolidation of supply led to a significant increase in prices. With a logging volume of 15 million m 3 (standing timber equivalent), state forest timber supply has remained at a high level, slightly above that of 1999. The improved business cycle situation has pushed prices up, including for beech for which rates had stagnated for some time. However, in spite of the 15% rise compared to 2005, the average per cubic metre price sold by the ONF (31.20 euros), all categories of timber and all state forests taken together, remains well below the average for the 1996-1999 period (37.80 euros). While unsold stocks have fallen considerably, the ONF has sought to facilitate access to products by industry by modernising its sales methods in line with the new 2005 legislative and regulatory provisions. Greater flexibility in the rules applicable to privately negotiated spot sales and supply contracts should over time contribute to stabilizing and reducing the accessory costs of supply. The changes implemented over the last decade in favour of private sales, which now account for nearly 40% of volumes sold, should continue in the future. Of those volumes, 20% were sold under supply contracts, a proportion that is rising sharply. These contracts covered more than one million m 3 in 2006, encouraging the ONF to adopt a new sales scheme and establish structures for consultations with both forest municipalities and the downstream component of the industry. (authors)

  16. Markets, Government Policy, and China’s Timber Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2012-01-01

    China’s domestic demand and exports of wood products are rising rapidly compared to domestic supply. The determinants of timber supply in China were investigated with panel data from 25 provinces from 1999 to 2009. The results indicated that China’s timber supply had responded to both market forces, reflected by timber prices largely determined by world demand and...

  17. Ranking independent timber investments by alternative investment criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Mills; Gary E. Dixon

    1982-01-01

    A sample of 231 independent timber investments were ranked by internal rate of return, present net worth per acre and the benefit cost ratio—the last two discounted by 3, 6.4. 7.5. and 10 percent—to determine if the different criteria had a practical influence on timber investment ranking. The samples in this study were drawn from a group of timber investments...

  18. Study on the ventilation resistance of timbered airways (II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oba, S; Takiguchi, I

    1977-01-01

    From the results of a model study described in a previous paper (I), (Vol.23, No.4), a timber factor Kr is determined as a specific parameter for type of timber and as a function of spacing ratio d/e where d and e are the spacing and the height of sets respectively. A general formula for the determination of the friction coefficient of timbered airways is also proposed.

  19. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

    2017-09-01

    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  20. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  1. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

    2018-02-01

    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  3. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  4. Long term contracts signed in Slovak timber business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2005-01-01

    The Slovak timber business is changing. The state-owned company, SR Forests, which cuts more then 50% of Slovak timber has signed long term agreements with major domestic timber processing companies - Smrecina, the Rettenmeier Tatra Timber saw mill in Liptovsky Mikulas and two paper mills - Mondi SCP Ruzomberok and Kappa Sturovo. In the past, only quarterly contracts were signed. Now, for the first time, two-year contracts have been signed that should help the timber processing industry and the forestry sector. The General Director of Lesy SR (SR Forests), Karol Vins, hopes for better sale prices. Company headquarters wants to maintain better control of prices than under the old system of timber sales by its branches. In the opinion of the General Director of the Forestry Section at the Ministry of Agriculture, long term contracts will guarantee a stable delivery of timber to processing companies, giving investors in new production capacity a better position in negotiations with banks regarding financing. According to K. Vins, long term contracts have so far only been negotiated with major timber processing companies which are mostly controlled by foreign capital and therefore have good payment discipline. The Association of the Timber Processing Industry is unhappy regarding developments and Lesy SR has not invited domestic companies to these negotiations

  5. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  6. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  7. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

    2012-11-15

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  8. Seismic retrofitting of timber framed walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonçalves, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available After the 1755 earthquake that destroyed Lisbon, an innovative anti-seismic structural system was developed consisting of a timber skeleton, that included timber framed masonry walls. After more than 250 years these structures need rehabilitation to face the present demands. The research presented in this paper aimed at experimentally characterizing the cyclic behaviour of timber framed walls reinforced with three different methods, namely: (i elastic-plastic dampers on diagonal braces, (ii reinforcement of timber connections with steel plates, (iii application of a reinforced rendering. The elastic-plastic damper showed an unsymmetrical behaviour and some difficulties to implement in practice. The strengthening with reinforced render led to an initial stiffness increase but showed a limited deformation capacity. The walls with reinforcing steel plates at the timber connections showed the best behaviour in terms of strength, stiffness and energy dissipation.Después del terremoto de 1755 que destruyó Lisboa, un sistema estructural antisísmico muy innovador fue desarrollado. El sistema consistió en un esqueleto de madera, que incluyó la construcción de muros de mampostería con un entramado de madera. Transcurridos más de 250 años, estas estructuras necesitan rehabilitación para poder hacer frente a los requisitos estructurales actuales. La investigación presentada en este trabajo tiene como objetivo caracterizar experimentalmente el comportamiento cíclico de los muros con entramado de madera reforzados con tres métodos diferentes: (i amortiguadores elasto-plásticos, (ii refuerzo de las conexiones de madera con placas de acero, (iii aplicación de un mortero reforzado. El amortiguador elasto-plástico mostró un comportamiento asimétrico y algunas dificultades para aplicarlo en la práctica. El refuerzo con mortero reforzado condujo a un aumento de la rigidez inicial, pero reveló una capacidad de deformación limitada. Los muros con

  9. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  10. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G

    2015-01-01

    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  11. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  12. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

    2014-05-01

    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  13. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  14. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.

    2009-07-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  15. Appropriateness of Probit-9 in development of quarantine treatments for timber and timber commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus Schortemeyer; Ken Thomas; Robert A. Haack; Adnan Uzunovic; Kelli Hoover; Jack A. Simpson; Cheryl A. Grgurinovic

    2011-01-01

    Following the increasing international phasing out of methyl bromide for quarantine purposes, the development of alternative treatments for timber pests becomes imperative. The international accreditation of new quarantine treatments requires verification standards that give confidence in the effectiveness of a treatment. Probit-9 mortality is a standard for treatment...

  16. North Dakota timber industry: an assessment of timber product output and use, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    David E. Haugen; Robert A. Harsel

    2013-01-01

    Presents recent North Dakota forest industry trends; production and receipts of industrial roundwood; and production of saw logs and other products in 2009. Logging residue generated from timber harvest operations is reported, as well as wood and bark residue generated at primary wood-using mills and disposition of mill residues.

  17. South Dakota timber industry: an assessment of timber product output and use, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald J. Piva; Gregory J. Josten

    2013-01-01

    Presents recent South Dakota forest industry trends; production and receipts of industrial roundwood; and production of saw logs, veneer logs, pulpwood, and other products in 2009. Logging residue generated from timber harvest operations is reported, as well as wood and bark residue generated at primary wood-using mills and disposition of mill residues.

  18. Wisconsin timber industry--an assessment of timber product output and use, 1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith; James W. Whipple

    1990-01-01

    Discusses recent Wisconsin forest industry trends; production and receipts of pulpwood, saw logs, and veneer logs; and production of other timber products in 1988. Reports on logging residue, on wood and bark residue generated at primary wood-using mills, and on disposition of this mill residue.

  19. Tensile properties of machine strength graded timber for glued laminated timber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boström, Lars; Hoffmeyer, Preben; Solli, Kjell-Helge

    1999-01-01

    Special setting values based on tensile properties of Norway spruce are established for four different strength grading machines. The machines included are Computermatic, Cook-Bolinder, Ersson and Dynagrade.The study shows that the yield of timber to be used in tension, such as laminations...

  20. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  1. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Les données mensuelles (1960-1990 de précipitations de 21 stations situées dans les trois domaines physiques du Pérou (côte, Andes et plaine amazonienne sont analysées lors des phases ENSO et LNSO de l’Oscillation Australe du Pacifique. Ce n’est qu’à Piura, dans la région côtière du Nord, que les excédents sont significatifs en phase ENSO (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov mais les volumes précipités sont très différents d’un événement à l’autre. Ailleurs, n’apparaît pas de différence significative entre les pluies des phases ENSO (ou LNSO et celles des périodes normales. Toutefois, la pluviométrie est souvent déficitaire dans les Andes en phase ENSO en période LNSO, elle est également déficitaire au Sud des Andes, mais plus souvent excédentaire au Nord. Dans la plaine amazonienne, la variabilité spatio-temporelle est trop importante lors des deux phases pour que soit esquissé un comportement général. LA PLUVIOMETRÍA EN EL PERÚ DURANTE LAS FASES ENSO Y LNSO. Los datos mensuales (1960-1990 de precipitación de 21 estaciones ubicadas en la Costa, la Sierra y la Selva de Perú son estudiados durante las fases ENSO y LNSO de la Oscilación del Sur del Pacífico. Las lluvias de Piura, en el norte de la Costa, son las únicas que presentan excesos significativos (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov durante la fase ENSO pero los volúmenes cambian mucho de un evento a otro. No hay, en otros lugares, diferencia significativa entre las lluvias de las fases ENSO (o LNSO y las lluvias de años normales. Pero, muchas veces, la pluviosidad es deficitaria en los Andes durante los ENSO durante los eventos LNSO, las lluvias son también deficitarias en los Andes del Sur, pero más veces hay excesos en el Norte. En la Selva Amazónica, la variabilidad espacio-temporal es demasiado grande para dibujar un comportamiento general. RAINFALL IN PERU DURING THE ENSO AND LNSO PHASES. Monthly rainfall data (1960-1990 taken from 21 stations in three

  2. Assessment of demand and supply of timber products in Benue ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines demand and supply of timber products in Benue State Nigeria with a view to highlighting the responsiveness of forest policy implementation. The scope of the study lies on plantation establishment targets and costs for 1999 to 2003, actual plantation establishment, timber supply and demand from ...

  3. Cattle and elk responses to intensive timber harvest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Wisdom; Bruce K. Johnson; Martin Vavra; Jennifer M. Boyd; Priscilla K. Coe; John G. Kie; Alan A. Ager; Norman J. Cimon

    2004-01-01

    Forested habitats for cattle and elk (Cervus elaphus) in the western United States have changed substantially in response to intensive timber management during the latter half of the 20th century. Consequently, the subject of how elk and other ungulates respond to timber management is a high-profile, long-standing issue that continues to be studied...

  4. Field investigations of historic covered timber bridges in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Wacker; Travis Hosteng; Brent. Phares

    2012-01-01

    The Federal Highway Administration is sponsoring a comprehensive research program on Historic Covered Timber Bridges in the USA. This national program's main purpose is to develop improved methods to preserve, rehabililate, and restore the timber bridge trusses that were developed during the early 1800s, and in many cases are still in service today. The overall...

  5. The Dendrochronological Dating of Timber Crossings in West Jutland, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Aoife

    2006-01-01

    The dendrochronological analyses of a large number of timbers from two sites are described. Nybro causeway in west Jutland, Denmark, which was built in the 8th century AD, consists of numerous phases, identifiable due to the large number of dendrochronologically dated timbers, of which many had...

  6. Influence Of Density On The Durabilities Of Three Ghanaian Timbers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Review of factors influencing wood durability shows although density varies depending on trunk position, its role appears controversial for many timber species. Thus, for the first time, the influence of density on the durability of three Ghanaian timbers (Nauclea diderrichii (de Wild.) Merr., Nesogordonia papaverifera (A. Chev ...

  7. Lateral testing of glued laminated timber tudor arch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas R. Rammer; Philip Line

    2016-01-01

    Glued laminated timber Tudor arches have been in wide use in the United States since the 1930s, but detailed knowledge related to seismic design in modern U.S. building codes is lacking. FEMA P-695 (P-695) is a methodology to determine seismic performance factors for a seismic force resisting system. A limited P-695 study for glued laminated timber arch structures...

  8. Timber Management Opportunities for Nebraska 1983-1992

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith; Tom D. Wardle

    1984-01-01

    Reviews opportunities for treatment of timber stands in Nebraska for the decade 1983 - 1992. Under the assumptions and management guides specified, 52 percent of Nebraska''s commercial forest land would benefit from timber harvest or some other form of treatment during the decade.

  9. Projecting national forest inventories for the 2000 RPA timber assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Mills; Xiaoping. Zhou

    2003-01-01

    National forest inventories were projected in a study that was part of the 2000 USDA Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA) timber assessment. This paper includes an overview of the status and structure of timber inventory of the National Forest System and presents 50-year projections under several scenarios. To examine a range of possible outcomes, results are...

  10. Comparative durability of timber bridges in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    James P. Wacker; Brian K. Brashaw

    2017-01-01

    As engineers begin to utilize life-cycle-cost design approaches for timber bridges, there is a necessity for more reliable data about their durability and expected service life. This paper summarizes a comprehensive effort to assess the current condition of more than one hundred timber highway bridge superstructures throughout the United States. This national study was...

  11. 125 Timber Dealers' Perception of their Knowledge of the Forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    Abstract. This study investigated timber dealers' knowledge of the forest law and regulations in Uyo Senatorial District. Five timber markets were selected through two-stage sampling. Data were collected from 238 traders in the selected markets using structured questionnaires and subjected to descriptive and inferential ...

  12. Whole tree transportation system for timber processing depots

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Lancaster; Tom Gallagher; Tim  McDonald; Dana Mitchell

    2016-01-01

    The growing demand for alternative energy has led those who are interested in producing sustainable energy from renewable timber to devise new concepts to satisfy those demands. The concept of timber processing depots, where whole stem trees will be delivered for future processing into wood products and high quality energy fuel, has led to the re-evaluation of our...

  13. Infill Panels and the tube connection in timber frames

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leijten, A.J.M.; Jorissen, A.J.M.; Hoenderkamp, J.C.D.

    2012-01-01

    In recent years timber infill panels have been proposed for multi-story column-beam frame structures with the aim to substitute the stabilizing function of column-beam moment connections. The preliminary study reported in this paper considers a column-beam timber frame where stability is assured by

  14. Lateral Stiffness of Timber Frames with CLT Infill Panels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leijten, A.J.M.; Jorissen, A.J.M.; Hoenderkamp, J.C.D.; Haddad, Y.M.

    2011-01-01

    In recent years timber infill panels have been proposed for multi-story column-beam frame structures with the aim to substitute the stabilizing function of column-beam moment connections. The preliminary study reported in this paper considers a column-beam timber frame where stability is assured by

  15. Non-timber forest products and forest stewardship plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky Barlow; Tanner Filyaw; Sarah W. Workman

    2015-01-01

    To many woodland owners “harvesting” typically means the removal of timber from forests. In recent years many landowners have become aware of the role non-timber forest products (NTFPs) can play in supplemental management strategies to produce income while preserving other forest qualities. NTFPs are a diverse group of craft, culinary, and medicinal products that have...

  16. Feasibility Investigation into Strengthening of Timber Bridge Stringers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-05-01

    12 Studies on timber members recycled from old timber structures...55 Figure 63. The load cell-hydraulic ram setup with spreader beam.....................................................56 Figure 64. The MTS...actuator and spreader beam................................................................................56 Figure 65. Effectiveness of a repair method

  17. Alaska's timber harvest and forest products industry, 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeff M. Halbrook; Todd A. Morgan; Jason P. Brandt; Charles E. Keegan; Thale Dillon; Tara M. Barrett

    2009-01-01

    This report traces the flow of timber harvested in Alaska during calendar year 2005, describes the composition and operations of the state's primary forest products industry, and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Historical wood products industry changes are discussed, as well as trends in timber harvest, production, and sales of primary wood products....

  18. Alaska’s timber harvest and forest products industry, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erik C. Berg; Charles B. Gale; Todd A. Morgan; Allen M. Brackley; Charles E. Keegan; Susan J. Alexander; Glenn A. Christensen; Chelsea P. McIver; Micah G. Scudder

    2014-01-01

    This report traces the flow of timber harvested in Alaska during calendar year 2011, describes the composition and operations of the state’s primary forest products industry, and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Historical wood products industry changes are discussed, as well as trends in timber harvest, production, export, sales of primary wood products,...

  19. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  20. RILEM International Symposium on Materials and Joints in Timber Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Reinhardt, H-W; Garrecht, Harald

    2014-01-01

    This book contains the contributions from the RILEM International Symposium on Materials and Joints in Timber Structures that was held in Stuttgart, Germany from October 8 to 10, 2013. It covers recent developments in the materials and the joints used in modern timber structures. Regarding basic wooden materials, the contributions highlight the widened spectrum of products comprising cross-laminated timber, glulam and LVL from hardwoods and block glued elements. Timber concrete compounds, cement bonded wood composites and innovative light-weight constructions represent increasingly employed alternatives for floors, bridges and facades. With regard to jointing technologies, considerable advances in both mechanical connections and glued joints are presented. Self-tapping screws have created unprecedented options for reliable, strong as well as ductile joints and reinforcement technologies. Regarding adhesives, which constitute the basis of the jointing/laminating technology of modern timber products, extended o...

  1. On several parameters of mechanized timbering for working faces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klorik' yan, S Kh

    1979-08-01

    Opinion is expressed that the two basic parameters characterizing mechanical timbers, the specific force in ton-forces per square meter of the supported roof surface over the working area and the one-meter length of installed timbering, do not permit selection of the optimum type of timber for a roof of the corresponding class. Experience has demonstrated that the most precise parameter is specific strength of the timber in ton-forces per meter and the determined ratio of the strength of all posts in a section to spacing of the section along the longwall. Also an operating width not exceeding 0.4 meter should serve as a criterion for using timbers on unstable hanging walls. (In Russian)

  2. Durability of timber silencers at Wairakei geothermal steam field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedley, M E

    1979-02-01

    After early failures of reinforced concrete silencers and because of high costs of concrete-lined steel structures, preliminary tests were undertaken to assess the suitability of timber for silencer construction. Tests indicated that radiata pine treated with pentachlorophenol/oil or untreated red beech had most potential for timber silencer fabrication. One prototype silencer of each material was constructed and both were installed on operational bores in 1965. The red beech silencer had a service life of 4 years. The radiata pine silencer operated for 12/sup 1///sub 2/ years, although replacement had been recommended 1 year before this time expired. The performance of this silencer encouraged the general use of timber for silencer construction and further units were built. Procurement of satisfactory grades of timber has proved difficult and has limited silencer fabrication. Ways of improving timber supply, which require modification of silencer design, are discussed.

  3. Moisture Content Monitoring of a Timber Footbridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niclas Björngrim

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Construction of modern timber bridges has greatly increased during the last 20 years in Sweden. Wood as a construction material has several advantageous properties, e.g., it is renewable, sustainable, and aesthetically pleasing, but it is also susceptible to deterioration. To protect wood from deterioration and ensure the service life, the wood is either treated or somehow covered. This work evaluates a technology to monitor the moisture content in wood constructions. Monitoring the moisture content is important both to verify the constructive protection and for finding areas with elevated levels of moisture which might lead to a microbiological attack of the wood. In this work, a timber bridge was studied. The structure was equipped with six wireless sensors that measured the moisture content of the wood and the relative humidity every hour. Data for 744 days of the bridge are presented in this paper. Results show that the technology used to monitor the bridge generally works; however, there were issues due to communication problems and malfunction of sensors. This technology is promising for monitoring the state of wood constructions, but a more reliable sensor technology is warranted continuous remote monitoring of wood bridges over long periods of time.

  4. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  5. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nyenzi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  6. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  7. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)

    2007-07-15

    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  8. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  9. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  10. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk

    2016-04-01

    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  11. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

    2018-04-01

    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  12. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

    2017-04-28

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  13. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin

    2017-05-01

    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  14. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  15. Spatial ecology of timber rattlesnakes on the hardwood ecosystem experiment: pre-treatment results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian J. MacGowan; Zachary J. Walker

    2013-01-01

    The timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus) is a species of conservation concern throughout much of its geographic range and may serve as a sentinel species in investigations of the effects of timber harvesting on forest reptiles. Our objective was to determine the effect of even-aged timber management regimes on timber rattlesnake home range and...

  16. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2018-05-01

    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  17. System Reliability of Timber Structures with Ductile Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Čizmar, Dean

    2011-01-01

    The present paper considers the evaluation of timber structures with the focus on robustness due to connection ductility. The robustness analysis is based on the structural reliability framework applied to a simplified mechanical system. The structural timber system is depicted as a parallel system....... An evaluation method of the ductile behaviour is introduced. For different ductile behaviours, the system reliability is estimated based on Monte Carlo simulation. A correlation between the strength of the structural elements is introduced. The results indicate that the reliability of a structural timber system...

  18. Robustness Issues for Design of Innovative Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Frederik; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2013-01-01

    Robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest due to a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious conse-quences in case of failure. The present paper summaries issues with respect to robustness of timber structures. Two different...... large span timber structures are analyzed and based on these analyses the paper presents guidelines for the future development of innovative timber struc-tures which are robust with respect to design and execution errors, unforeseen degradation and other potential hazards....

  19. Moment Capacity of Timber Reinforced with Punched Metal Plate Fasteners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jacob; Ellegaard, Peter

    When designing timber trusses it is often found that the cross section controlling the dimensions of the top chord is located at a joint with a moment peak. However, the timber volume affected by the moment peak is rather limited and by embedding a punched metal plate in this area a reinforcement...... of the section is obtained, resulting in a more economic truss design. In order to develop design methods for sections with plate reinforcement, bending tests have been made. The timber is Swedish spruce of strength class K-18(S8) and K-24(S10) with a thickness of 45 mm. The punched metal plate is from Gang...

  20. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  1. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  2. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  3. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  4. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  5. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  6. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  7. ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

  8. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supari; Tangang, Fredolin; Salimun, Ester; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Juneng, Liew

    2017-12-01

    This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we

  9. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  10. epidemiology of eye diseases among timber workers in owerri

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    LIVINGSTON

    pinguecula and uveitis, each, accounting for 39.52%, 31.10%, 12.53%, 7.34% and 2.16% respectively ... Timber workers, eye diseases, work environment, prevalence, environmental pollutants. ... there was no interested family member to take.

  11. Profitability of Clerodendrum volubile (eweta) , a non-timber forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timber Forest product, in Okitipupa, Ondo State Nigeria. Purposive and simple random sampling techniques were used in the selection of markets and respondents. The sample size was 60 and instrument of data collection was structured and ...

  12. Community Based Ecological Monitoring of Non Timber Forest ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Community Based Ecological Monitoring of Non Timber Forest Products in the Nilgiri ... This project will allow Keystone Foundation to design, implement and test a ... traders, forest department officials and other stakeholders in the process.

  13. Creosote treated timber in the Alaskan marine environment : Volume I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-01

    ADOT&PF is responsible for many structures that incorporate wood pilings and other timber in Alaska waters. Most are treated with preservative to inhibit marine borers : that will quickly destroy unprotected wood. Creosote is generally the most econo...

  14. Minimizing corrosive action in timber bridges treated with waterborne preservatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel L. Zelinka; Douglas R. Rammer; James P. Wacker

    2007-01-01

    This work will briefly review published literature and current research activities on the corrosion of metals in contact with wood treated with waterborne alternatives to CCA. In addition, recommendations to minimize these corrosive effects in timber bridges will be discussed.

  15. Impact of timber production and transport costs on stand management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; Chris B. LeDoux

    1988-01-01

    Evaluates the impact of cable logging technology, transportation network standards, and transport vehicles on stand management. Managers can use results to understand the impact of timber production costs on eastern hardwood management.

  16. Compression strength perpendicular to grain of structural timber and glulam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damkilde, Lars; Hoffmeyer, Preben; Pedersen, Torben N.

    1998-01-01

    The characteristic strength values for compression perpendicular to grain as they appear in EN 338 (structural timber) and EN 1194 (glulam) are currently up for discussion. The present paper provides experimental results based on EN 1193 that may assist in the correct assignment of such strength...... values. The dominant failure mode of glulam specimens is shown to be fundamentally different from that of structural timber specimens. Glulam specimens often show tension perpendicular to grain failure before the compression strength value is reached. Such failure mode is not seen for structural timber....... Nonetheless test results show that the levels of characteristic compression strength perpendicular to grain are of the same order for structural timber and glulam. The values are slightly lower than those appearing in EN 1194 and less than half of those appearing in EN 338. The paper presents a numerical...

  17. Modeling the Effects of Knots in Structural Timber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foley, Christina

    The main purpose of the pursued research presented in this thesis is to increase knowledge of the effects of knots in structural timber so that characteristics of weaker timber may be determined and applied to improve current grading techniques. In the process, a three-dimensional fiber paradigm...... are given to Shigo's knot formation theory, and thus predicts two separate patterns of fiber direction within annual growth layers related to live knots. In order to determine the possibility to practically and non destructively predict local material directions in structural timber with the three...... was established, which describes variations of radial growth direction and fiber orientation related to knots in timber. The adaptability of the paradigm allows practically any softwood knot and its effect on surrounding wood material to be modeled with an accuracy that is limited only by input data. The knot...

  18. Probabilistic representation of duration of load effects in timber structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Reliability analysis of structures for the purpose of code calibration or reliability verification of specific structures requires that the relevant failure modes are represented and analyzed. For structural timber, sustaining a life load, two failure cases for each failure mode have......-based design of timber structures in terms of a modification factor View the MathML source which is multiplied on the short-term resistance of the timber material. The scenario of a beam subject to office space life loads is analyzed and the modification factor View the MathML source is calibrated by using...... to be considered. These two cases are maximum load level exceeding load-carrying capacity and damage accumulation (caused by the load and its duration) leading to failure. The effect of both load intensity and load duration on the capacity of timber has been an area of large interest over the last decades...

  19. 26 CFR 1.611-3 - Rules applicable to timber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ..., the total quantity under consideration, and the location of the timber in question with reference to... or shares, royalties and rentals, valuation for local or State taxation, partnership accountings...

  20. structural reliability of the nigerian grown abura timber bridge beam

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ENGR. J. I. AGUWA

    2013-07-02

    Jul 2, 2013 ... Structural analysis and deterministic design of a timber bridge beam using the Nigerian ... practice especially when it involves naturally occuring materials .... the beam due to distributed loads is; from [15]. (4). It is assumed that ...

  1. Influence of Compression Stresses on Timber Potentials of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eucalyptus camaldulensis Denhn in North-Western Nigeria. *1A. ... further research should be carried out on wood in service to study the peculiarities of timber behaviour under actual .... eastern Nigeria, Neem (Azadirachta indica) was found.

  2. Timber resource statistics for the Yakataga inventory unit, Alaska, 1976.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willem W.S. van Hees

    1985-01-01

    Statistics on forest area, total gross and net timber volumes, and annual net growth and mortality are presented from the 1976 timber inventory of the Yakataga unit, Alaska. Timberland area is estimated at 209.3 thousand acres (84.7 thousand ha), net growing stock volume at 917.1 million cubic feet (26.0 million m3), and annual net growth and...

  3. Dowelled structural connections in laminated bamboo and timber

    OpenAIRE

    Reynolds, Thomas Peter; Sharma, Bhavna; Harries, Kent; Ramage, Michael Hector

    2015-01-01

    Structural sections of laminated bamboo can be connected using methods common in timber engineering, however the different material properties of timber and laminated bamboo suggest that the behaviour of connections in the two materials would not be the same. This study investigates the dowelled connection, in which a connector is passed through a hole in the material, and load is resisted by shear in the connector and embedment into the surrounding material. Steel dowels were used in a conne...

  4. T-section glulam timber bridge modules : modeling and performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Morgan; Steven E. Taylor; Michael A. Ritter; John M. Franklin

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the design, modeling, and testing of two portable timber bridges, each consisting of two noninterconnected longitudinal glued-laminated timber (glulam) deck panels 1.8 m (6 ft) wide. One bridge is 12.2 m (40 ft) long while the other bridge is 10.7 m (35 ft) long. The deck panels are fabricated in a unique double-tee cross section. The bridges...

  5. Reliability based Robustness of Timber Structures through NDT Data Updating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder S.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a framework for reliability-based assessment of timber structures / members using data gathered from non-destructive test results. These results are used for modeling an update of the mechanical characteristics of timber, using Bayesian methods. Results gathered from ultrasound...... of the structure, thus, being possible to evaluate reliability based in time dependent factors, as well to categorize that structure in terms of robustness. For exemplification of the underlined concepts, three different types of structures are studied....

  6. Parametric Evaluation of Racking Performance of Platform Timber Framed Walls

    OpenAIRE

    Dhonju, R..; D’Amico, B..; Kermani, A..; Porteous, J..; Zhang, B..

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the racking performance of partially anchored timber framed walls, based on experimental tests. A total of 17 timber framed wall specimens, constructed from a combination of materials under different load configurations, were tested. The experimental study was designed toexamine the influence of a range of geometrical parameters, such as fastener size and spacings, wall length, arrangement of studs and horizontal members, as well as the effect ...

  7. Section of mechanized timbering of an installation layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gur' yev, D K; Tomashevskiy, L P; Vorotnyak, M V

    1980-07-28

    A section of mechanized timbering of an installation layer is suggested which includes roof timber, base with cantilever, hydrostand, safety guard which consists of a lower and upper shield, where the lower shield in the lower part has a roll whose upper part is hinged to the cantilever base, and the upper shield is hinged to the roof timber. Its lower part is connected by a linkage to the cantilever of the base. There is also a correcting device, tie rod and holder with rolled material. In order to guarantee stability of the timbering section during work on thick beds and adaptability of the roof timber to the roofing of the bed, the connection between the cantilever and the lower part of the upper shield is made from a longitudinal slit on the cantilever and slide bar placed in it. It is attached by a pin to the lower part of the upper shield. In this case the tie bar is hinged to the linkage and by means of the slide bar to the roof timber, while the correcting device is made of an extension-type support with level which contacts with the wedge and the tightening element installed on the cantilever of the base.

  8. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  9. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  10. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  11. Equatorial Precession Drove Mid-Latitude Changes in ENSO-Scale Variation in the Earliest Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, B.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Lee, D. E.; Wilson, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    Foulden Maar is an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite deposit from the South Island of New Zealand. The deposit was laid down over ~100 kyr of the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene, during the peak and deglaciation phase of the Mi-1 Antarctic glaciation event. At this time, New Zealand was located at approximately the same latitude as today (~45°S). Evidence from organic geochemical proxies (δD, δ13C) and physical properties (density, colour) indicates the presence of an 11-kyr cycle at the site. Although it is known that 11-kyr insolation (half-precession) cycles occur between the Tropics, this cycle is rarely seen in sedimentary archives deposited outside the immediate vicinity of the Equator. Records from Foulden Maar correlate well with the amplitude and phase of the modelled equatorial half-precession cycle for the earliest Miocene. High-resolution (50 µm) colour intensity measurements and lamina thickness measurements both indicate the presence of significant ENSO-like (2-8 year) variation in the Foulden Maar sediments. Early results from targeted lamina thickness measurements suggest that ENSO-band variation is modulated by the 11-kyr cycle, with power in the ENSO band increasing during periods of increased insolation at the Equator. This implies that equatorial half-precession had a significant effect on ENSO-like variation in the early Miocene, and that this effect was felt as far afield as the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

  12. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  13. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  14. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  15. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  16. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2018-05-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  17. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  18. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

    2018-01-01

    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  19. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

  20. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  1. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  2. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  3. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  4. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il

    2018-02-01

    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  5. Timbered masonry for earthquake resistance in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dutu, A.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Europe is a continent that is subject to significant seismic activity. Thus, the buildings’ seismic behaviour must be analysed, including not only the new structures, designed under more rigorous codes, but also older ones. This article examines a traditional type of building that uses timber frame/masonry, which is found in Portugal, Turkey, France, England, Greece, Romania, Italy, Spain, Germany and Scandinavia. Although the structures differ in terms of construction details, their structural system is basically the same: the wooden structural system bears mainly the horizontal loads while the masonry supports the gravity loads. The study includes a brief report on the seismicity of each country where this traditional type of building made of timbered framed masonry is found, together with the description of these buildings’ constructive systems.

    Europa es un continente que está sujeto a una significativa actividad sísmica. Por esta razón, se debe analizar el comportamiento sísmico, no sólo de las nuevas estructuras, diseñadas sobre la base de códigos más exigentes, sino también de los diversos tipos de estructuras antiguas. En este artículo se analizan las estructuras constituidas por mampostería y madera, que se pueden encontrar en Portugal, Turquía, Francia, Inglaterra, Grecia, Rumania, Italia, España, Alemania y Escandinavia. Aunque estas estructuras presentan diferencias en cuanto a detalles constructivos, su sistema estructural es idéntico: el sistema estructural de madera absorbe principalmente las cargas horizontales, mientras que la mampostería garantiza la resistencia a la acción de la gravedad. El estudio presentado incluye un breve informe acerca de la sismicidad de los países en que existe el tipo de construcción mencionado, conjuntamente con la descripción de los sistemas constructivos específicos de cada país.

  6. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  7. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2010-01-01

    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  8. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  9. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, P.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  10. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao

    2014-01-01

    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

  11. Dynamics of Timber Market Integration in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vishal Chandr Jaunky

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the performance of the timber markets (Scots pine, Pinus silvestris L. and Norway spruce, Picea abies (L. Karst. by evaluating the order of market integration in three Swedish regions (Central, Northern, and Southern. Quarterly data of delivery prices are employed over the period 1999Q1–2012Q4. Various unit root and cointegration tests have been computed. The results indicate that the variables are integrated of first order and co-integrated, especially after controlling for structural breaks. This supports the law-of-one-price hypothesis (LOP. However, the effects of structural shocks on forestry are arguably significant and these are controlled for while performing a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM-based Granger-causality test. Bi-directional causality between the Northern and central markets is uncovered in the short-run. In the long-run, a similar causal effect is detected between Northern and Southern markets while the central market emerges as the price leader. Further investigation is carried out using variance decompositions and impulse response functions and these approaches also tend to confirm the existence of a single market well, as price interdependence between markets.

  12. Procurement of timber for the Finnish forest industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakkila, P.

    1995-01-01

    The procurement of timber to the forest industries in the Nordic countries is based on the log-length or shortwood system, and employs load-carrying forwarders and chainsaw of single-grip harvesters. This technology is characterized by high productivity, safety, suitability for small-sized trees, high recovery of timber, and environmental friendliness. About one fourth of the industrial timber in the whole world is harvested using the log-length system. The challenge of ecological sustainability, multiple use of forests, adoption of thinnings as a tool of management, trend toward improved utilization of forest biomass, and shift from natural forests to plantations all increase the global interest in the log-length system. The paper presents a review of the Finnish forest sector, the technology of timber harvesting and transport, productivity of logging work, and costs of timber at the mill. The highly mechanized logging systems of the forest industries and the lighter technology of self-employed forest owners are discussed separately. Furthermore, the use of residual biomass as a source of clean and renewable energy, the Finnish logging machine industry, and forest operations research in Finland are also reviewed. (46 refs., 35 figs., 8 tabs.)

  13. Supply Chain Planning for a Timber Harvesting Plus Sale Tender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Holoubek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 2010, the Czech State Forest Enterprise has been inviting timber-harvesting tenders while insisting on the forestry company purchasing the timber from the felled trees as well. To win, a tender must offer the greatest difference between the price of the timber purchased and the cost of the operations. Thus, the forest companies are now facing new problem: apart from minimizing the logging costs they are searching for a cross-cutting and mill-distribution strategy that maximizes the selling price of the harvested timber. The optimization model devised by the present paper provides support for finding an optimal timber selling strategy and, as an important contribution, include a detailed plan for cross-cutting the logs and assign them to the particular customers. We keep the support accessible via common office software and the cross-cutting and customer-assigning problem is formulated as a linear programming model for EXCEL, a particular real-world problem is solved and, using expert comparison, the model appears to provide very good results.

  14. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  15. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  16. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  17. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2017-12-01

    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  18. 36 CFR 13.485 - Subsistence use of timber and plant material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... cutting of standing timber by local rural residents for appropriate subsistence uses, such as firewood or... materials for subsistence uses, and the noncommerical gathering of dead or downed timber for firewood, shall...

  19. Protection of timber constructions by using electro osmotic pulsing technology (PLEOT)

    OpenAIRE

    Treu, A.; Larnoy, E.; Ribeiro Nunes, L. M.; Duarte, S.; Halvorsen, H.

    2011-01-01

    Timber constructions are often built in combination with other materials such as concrete. These materials can influence the timber construction. Moist concrete can e.g. lead to development of molds which creates an unhealthy living area for people. Furthermore, moisture in wood buildings can negatively affect the wood material, which can lead to negative biological activity in timber and possible reduction of strength properties of timber constructions. The present paper introduces ...

  20. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  1. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  2. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  3. A Probabilistic Approach for Robustness Evaluation of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    of Structures and a probabilistic modelling of the timber material proposed in the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). Due to the framework in the Danish Code the timber structure has to be evaluated with respect to the following criteria where at least one shall...... to criteria a) and b) the timber frame structure has one column with a reliability index a bit lower than an assumed target level. By removal three columns one by one no significant extensive failure of the entire structure or significant parts of it are obatined. Therefore the structure can be considered......A probabilistic based robustness analysis has been performed for a glulam frame structure supporting the roof over the main court in a Norwegian sports centre. The robustness analysis is based on the framework for robustness analysis introduced in the Danish Code of Practice for the Safety...

  4. Reliability Analysis of Timber Structures through NDT Data Upgrading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sousa, Hélder; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    The first part of this document presents, in chapter 2, a description of timber characteristics and common used NDT and MDT for timber elements. Stochastic models for timber properties and damage accumulation models are also referred. According to timber’s properties a framework is proposed...... for a safety reassessment procedure. For that purpose a theoretical background for structural reliability assessment including probabilistic concepts for structural systems and stochastic models are given in chapter 3. System models, both series and parallel systems, are presented as well as methods...... for robustness are dealt in chapter 5. The second part of this document begins in chapter 6, where a practical application of the premise definitions and methodologies is given through the implementation of upgraded models with NDT and MDT data. Structural life-cycle is, therefore, assessed and reliability...

  5. Multi-Scalar Modelling for Free-form Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poinet, Paul; Nicholas, Paul; Tamke, Martin

    2016-01-01

    .The research explores the design probe of free-form structures composed of glue-laminated timber beams and looks at the different types of data that need to be shared among each discipline and across multiple scales from which different levels of resolution can be defined. A particular focus lies...... in the segmentation strategy of glue-laminated timber structures that depend on structural requirements and the different types of constraints related to fabrication, transportation and assembly. Where current working practices decouple segmentation processes within a discrete digital workflow, this research aims...... and techniques as a means to work within a continuous design environment in which an abstract network of timber beams is iteratively updated through geometrical and structural optimizations at different levels of resolution....

  6. Risks, Information and Short-Run Timber Supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Rinaldi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Efforts to increase wood mobilization have highlighted the need to appraise drivers of short-run timber supply. The current study aims to shed further light on harvesting decisions of private forest owners, by investigating optimal harvesting under uncertainty, when timber revenues are invested on financial markets and uncertainty is mitigated by news releases. By distinguishing between aggregate economic risk and sector specific risks, the model studies in great detail optimal harvesting-investment decisions, with particular emphasis on the non-trivial transmission of risk on optimal harvesting, and on the way private forest owners react to news and information. The analysis of the role played by information in harvesting decisions is a novelty in forest economic theory. The presented model is highly relevant from a policy—information is a commonly used forest policy instrument—as well as a practical perspective, since the mechanism of risk transmission is at the basis of timber pricing.

  7. Impacts on South Carolina timber production over the last five decades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinglong Mo; Thomas Straka; Richard Harper

    2013-01-01

    Timberland ownership patterns and national forest timber harvesting policy have undergone significant changes in South Carolina over the past five decades. Timber output studies for the state commonly focused on short time frames and seldom addressed timberland ownership patterns in detail. We describe fifty-year timber output for South Carolina, allowing us to address...

  8. Development of a six-year research needs assessment for timber transportation structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry J. Wipf; Michael A. Ritter; Sheila Rimal Duwadi; Russell C. Moody

    1993-01-01

    A timber bridge, once a thing of the past, is now becoming a thing of the present. Interest in timber bridges and other transportation structures has been rapidly increasing. Much of this is due to new technologies in design and construction as well as advances in material manufacturing and presevative treatments. Although timber bridges and other transportation...

  9. Forensic timber identification: It's time to integrate disciplines to combat illegal logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleanor E. Dormontt; Markus Boner; Birgit Braun; Gerhard Breulmann; Bernd Degen; Edgard Espinoza; Shelley Gardner; Phil Guillery; John C. Hermanson; Gerald Koch; Soon Leong Lee; Milton Kanashiro; Anto Rimbawanto; Darren Thomas; Alex C. Wiedenhoeft; Yafang Yin; Johannes Zahnen; Andrew J. Lowe

    2015-01-01

    The prosecution of illegal logging crimes is hampered by a lack of available forensic timber identification tools, both for screening of suspectmaterial and definitive identification of illegally sourcedwood. Reputable timber traders are also struggling to police their own supply chains and comply with the growing requirement for due diligence with respect to timber...

  10. Robustness Analysis of a Timber Structure with Ductile Behaviour in Compression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Čizmar, Dean; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a probabilistic approach for structural robustness assessment for a timber structure built a few years ago. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability based framework for robustness assessment. The complex timber structure with a large number of failure modes...... material ductility of timber is taken into account. The robustness is expressed and evaluated by a robustness index....

  11. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  12. Using TPO data to estimate timber demand in support of planning on the Tongass National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jean M. Daniels; Michael D. Paruszkiewicz; Susan J. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Projections of Alaska timber products output, the derived demand for logs, lumber, residues, and niche products, and timber harvest by owner are developed by using a trend-based analysis. This is the fifth such analysis performed since 1990 to assist planners in meeting statutory requirements for estimating planning cycle demand for timber from the Tongass National...

  13. 36 CFR 294.24 - Timber cutting, sale, or removal in Idaho Roadless Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Timber cutting, sale, or..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SPECIAL AREAS Idaho Roadless Area Management § 294.24 Timber cutting, sale, or removal in Idaho Roadless Areas. (a) Wild Land Recreation. The cutting, sale, or removal of timber is...

  14. Protection of mechanized timberings on beds dangerous for mine impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Budirsky, S

    1982-01-01

    In some stoping faces on beds which are dangerous for mine impacts, mechanized timbering is successfully used which is not equipped with protection from the effect of these dynamic phenomena. This generated the idea that in the indicated conditions, mechanized timbering may not be equipped with protective devices against dynamic loads. Theoretical studies have shown that the effects of mine impacts depends on the total energy of the impact, distance of this stoping face from the epicenter of the impact, as well as the capacity of the rock massif to transmit and absorb energy of the mine impact. This means that the effect of the mine impact under different conditions is not the same, the mine impacts of lower energy under definite conditions can result in greater damages to the mechanized timbering than mine impact with higher energy. It is believed that the effect of absorption of energy of the mine impact depends on the method of control of the roofing in the stoping face, the presence of hydraulic fill quarantees absorption of up to 80% of its energy. The experience of working beds which are dangerous for mine impacts in the upper Silesia coal basin indicated that the designs of the mechanized timbering, especially shield, in which the stands are not rigidly connected to the roof timber, during operation on beds with thickness 2.5-4 m withstand mine impacts with energy 10/sup 7/ J without significant disorders (mine impacts with this energy occur very frequently . For energy of mine impact of 108 J (impacts with this energy are observed comparatively rarely), the mechanized timberings are considerably damaged.

  15. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.

    2004-01-01

    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  16. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  17. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.

    2000-01-01

    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip/modeldoc provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  18. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-08-01

    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  19. Theory of timber connections with slender dowel type fasteners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Staffan; Munch-Andersen, Jørgen

    2018-01-01

    A theory on the lateral load-carrying capacity of timber connections with slender fasteners is presented. The base of the theory is the coupled mechanical phenomena acting in the connection, while the wood and the slender fastener deform and yield prior to failure. The objective is to derive...... a sufficient description of actions and responses which have determining influence on the load-carrying capacity of timber connections with slender fasteners. Model assumptions are discussed and made, but simplifications are left out. Even so, simple mathematical equations describing the lateral capacity......-carrying capacity of the tested connections....

  20. Global timber trade pattern: the cards have changed

    OpenAIRE

    Roda Jean-Marc; Rohana Abd Rahman; Ismariah Ahmad; Lim Hin Fui; Mohd Parid Mamat

    2011-01-01

    Since the 1960s, the global timber trade has gradually evolved from a South-North trade to a South-South trade, with an acceleration of the phenomenon in the mid 1990s. Nowadays, Asia consumes more than 70% (in round wood equivalent) of the forest products originating from the tropics. Africa becomes the new frontier for the supplies of wood material for Asian giants, which now source raw wood from all over the world. Since the mid 1990s, the dynamics of the tropical timber trade have been in...

  1. Fire resistance in American heavy timber construction history and preservation

    CERN Document Server

    Heitz, Jesse

    2016-01-01

    This volume presents a history of heavy timber construction (HTC) in the United States, chronicling nearly two centuries of building history, from inception to a detailed evaluation of one of the best surviving examples of the type, with an emphasis on fire resistance. The book does not limit itself in scope to serving only as a common history. Rather, it provides critical analysis of HTC in terms of construction methods, design, technical specifications, and historical performance under fire conditions. As such, this book provides readers with a truly comprehensive understanding and exploration of heavy timber construction in the United States and its performance under fire conditions.

  2. Pre-Stressing Timber-Based Plate Tensegrity Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falk, Andreas; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2012-01-01

    Tensile structures occur in numerous varieties utilising combinations of tension and compression. Introducing structural plates in the basic tensegrity unit and tensegric assemblies varies the range of feasible topologies and provides the structural system with an integrated surface. The present...... paper considers the concept of plate tensegrity based on CLT plates (cross-laminated timber). It combines the principles of tensegrity with the principles of plate shells and is characterised by a plate shell stabilised by struts and cables. The paper deals with material aspects and robustness of timber...

  3. Analysis of the Strength of Timber and Glulam Timber Beams with Steel Reinforcement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Putra Usman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is a tropical country with abundant tropical timber that can be used as a building material. Wood is a renewable material, thus making it an environmentally friendly construction material. However, the dimensional limitations of solid wood may pose problems in structural constructions. Wood material also has some disadvantages, such as brittle failure. However, the ductility of wood can be increased because of plasticity occurring in the compression zone. Wood material with good ductility can be obtained by reinforcing it in the tensile zone. This study is about the strength of wood material for use as a material for structural elements. Based on the analytical findings, the bending capacity of wood can be improved by adding reinforcements to the tensile zone.

  4. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  5. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert

    2001-03-01

    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  6. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.

    2014-09-01

    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  7. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong

    2017-10-01

    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  8. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

    2003-01-01

    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  9. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.

    2017-05-01

    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  10. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

    2018-02-01

    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  11. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  12. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  13. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.

    2018-04-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  14. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  15. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  16. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  17. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  18. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  19. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  20. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  1. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  2. In vitro propagation of an endangered medicinal timber species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The over exploitation of African mahogany in tropical forest has threatened the genetic base of this useful timber and medicinal tree species and as such, an experiment was conducted on the in vitro culture of Khaya grandifoliola, an endangered tree species commonly found in the high forest zones of West Africa to explore ...

  3. 75 FR 63419 - Surety Bond Guarantee Program; Timber Sales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-15

    ... with the contract terms. 36 CFR 223.35. Generally, the Performance Bond, as defined in 13 CFR 115.10, ensures that the Principal, as defined in 13 CFR 115.10, complies with all contract terms and conditions... timber sale contracts awarded by the Federal Government or other public or private landowners. DATES...

  4. Montana's forest products industry and timber harvest, 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy P. Spoelma; Todd A. Morgan; Thale Dillon; Alfred L. Chase; Charles E. Keegan; Larry T. DeBlander

    2008-01-01

    This report traces the flow of Montana's 2004 timber harvest through the primary wood-using industries; provides a description of the structure, capacity, and condition of Montana's primary forest products industry; and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Historical wood products industry changes are discussed, as well as changes in harvest, production...

  5. Projecting southern timber supply for multiple products by subregion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert C. Abt; Frederick W. Cubbage; Karen L. Abt

    2009-01-01

    While timber supply modeling has been of importance in the wood-producing regions of the United States for decades, it is only more recently that the technology and data have allowed disaggregation of supply and demand to substate regions, including product specific breakdowns and endogenous land use and plantation changes. Using southwide data and an economic supply...

  6. An Ethnobotanical Survey on Fuel Wood and Timber plant Species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2011-12-19

    Dec 19, 2011 ... 3Department of Botany, Post Graduate College Abbottabad, Pakistan. Accepted 17 March, 2011. A survey was conducted to explore the fuel wood species and timber producing species of Kaghan valleys, Pakistan. Consumption pattern and impact on the forest resources were also taken into consideration.

  7. Essays on the economics of British Columbian timber policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niquidet, Kurt

    2007-01-01

    This thesis examines the process of institutional change in British Columbia’s timber sector. It is composed of a series of essays which highlight the underlying political and economic factors that have shaped past and current reforms. Taking center stage in the analysis, are the resource rents

  8. Forest ecosystem services: Provisioning of non-timber forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    James L. Chamberlain; Gregory E. Frey; C. Denise Ingram; Michael G. Jacobson; Cara Meghan Starbuck Downes

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to describe approaches to calculate a conservative and defensible estimate of the marginal value of forests for non-timber forest products (NTFPs). 'Provisioning" is one of four categories of benefits, or services that ecosystems provide to humans and was described by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as 'products...

  9. Pennsylvania hardwood timber bridges : field performance after 10 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    James P. Wacker; Carlito Calil

    2004-01-01

    Several hardwood demonstration timber bridges were built by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation in the early nineteen nineties. These bridge superstructures are of the recently developed stress-laminated deck design-type using Red Oak lumber laminations that were pressure-treated with creosote preservatives. This paper will describe the data acquisition...

  10. The Effect of Urban Sprawls on Timber Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen A. Barlow; Ian A Munn; David A. Cleaves; David L. Evans

    1998-01-01

    In Mississippi and Alabama, urban population growth is pushing development into rural areas. To study the impact of urbanization on timber harvesting, census and forest inventory data were combined in a geographic information system, and a logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between several variables and harvest probabilities....

  11. Timber resource of Michigan's Southern Lower Peninsula Unit, 1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerold T. Hahn

    1982-01-01

    The fourth inventory of the timber resource of Michigan's Southern Lower Peninsula Survey Unit shows a 12% decline in commercial forest area and a 26% gain in growing-stock volume between 1966 and 1980. Presented are highlights and statistics on area, volume, growth, mortality, removals, utilization, and biomass.

  12. Chapter 4: Lateral design of cross-laminated timber buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. van de Lindt; Douglas Rammer; Marjan Popovski; Phil Line; Shiling Pei; Steven E. Pryor

    2013-01-01

    Cross-laminated timber (CLT) is an innovative wood product that was developed approximately two decades ago in Europe and has since been gaining in popularity. Based on the experience of European researchers and designers, it is believed that CLT can provide the U.S. market the opportunity to build mid- and high-rise wood buildings. This Chapter presents a summary of...

  13. Finite element analysis of composite concrete-timber beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. C. S. FORTI

    Full Text Available AbstractIn the search for sustainable construction, timber construction is gaining in popularity around the world. Sustainably harvested wood stores carbon dioxide, while reforestation absorbs yet more CO2. One technique involves the combination of a concrete slab and a timber beam, where the two materials are assembled by the use of flexible connectors. Composite structures provide reduced costs, environmental benefits, a better acoustic performance, when compared to timber structures, and maintain structural safety. Composite structures combine materials with different mechanical properties. Their mechanical performance depends on the efficiency of the connection, which is designed to transmit shear longitudinal forces between the two materials and to prevent vertical detachment. This study contributes with the implementation of a finite element formulation for stress and displacement determination of composite concrete-timber beams. The deduced stiffness matrix and load vector are presented along to numerical examples. Numerical examples are compared to the analytical equations available in Eurocode 5 and to experimental data found in the literature.

  14. Emissions from prescribed burning of timber slash piles in Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emissions from burning piles of post-harvest timber slash (Douglas fir) in Grande Ronde, Oregon were sampled using an instrument platform lofted into the plume using a tether-controlled aerostat or balloon. Emissions of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane, particulate matte...

  15. Timber resource of Wisconsin's Northwest Survey Unit, 1983.

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. Brad Smith

    1984-01-01

    The fourth inventory of the timber resource of the Northwest Wisconsin Survey Unit shows a 1.8% decline in commercial forest area and a 36% gain in growing-stock volume between 1968 and 1983. Presented are highlights and statistics on area, volume, growth, mortality, removals, utilization, and biomass.

  16. Smart timber bridge on geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) abutments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam Senalik; James P. Wacker; Travis K. Hosteng; John Hermanson

    2017-01-01

    Recently, Buchanan County, Iowa, has cooperated with the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory (FPL), and Iowa State University’s Bridge Engineering Center (ISU–BEC) to initiate a project involving the construction and monitoring of a glued-laminated (glulam) timber superstructure on geosynthetic reinforced soil (...

  17. The privately owned timber resources of western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald R. Gedney

    1983-01-01

    Timber resource statistics from a 1973-76 inventory are presented for private timberland in western Oregon. Inventories usually classify private owners as either forest industry or nonindustrial private. For this report, however, the nonindustrial private classification has been further disaggregated into farmer, individual, and corporate owners. For all private owner...

  18. TRIM timber projections: an evaluation based on forest inventory measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Mills

    1989-01-01

    Two consecutive timberland inventories collected from permanent plots in the natural pine type in North Carolina were used to evaluate the timber resource inventory model (TRIM). This study compares model predictions with field measurements and examines the effect of inventory data aggregation on the accuracy of projections. Projections were repeated for two geographic...

  19. Non-timber forest products in sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    James L. Chamberlain; A.L. Hammett; Philip A. Araman

    2001-01-01

    The forests of Southern United States are the source of many non-timber forest products (NTFPs). The collection, trade and use of these products have been important to rural economies since Europeans settled in this country. At the same time the plants from which these products originate are crucial to healthy ecosystems. Over the last decade, the market demand and the...

  20. 36 CFR 223.85 - Noncompetitive sale of timber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... further advertisement, at not less than appraised value, any timber previously advertised for competitive... degradation or resource damage, or as the result of administrative appeals, litigation, or court orders... any applicable appeals or objection process has been completed may be considered for replacement...

  1. Modeling ground-based timber harvesting systems using computer simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jingxin Wang; Chris B. LeDoux

    2001-01-01

    Modeling ground-based timber harvesting systems with an object-oriented methodology was investigated. Object-oriented modeling and design promote a better understanding of requirements, cleaner designs, and better maintainability of the harvesting simulation system. The model developed simulates chainsaw felling, drive-to-tree feller-buncher, swing-to-tree single-grip...

  2. Global timber investments, wood costs, regulation, and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Cubbage; S. Koesbandana; P Mac Donagh; R. Rubilar; G Balmelli; V. Morales Olmos; R. De La Torre; M. Murara; V.A. Hoeflich; H. Kotze; R Gonzalez; O. Carrero; G. Frey; T. Adams; J. Turner; R. Lord; J. Huang; C. MacIntyre; Kathleen McGinley; R. Abt; R. Phillips

    2010-01-01

    We estimated financial returns and wood production costs in 2008 for the primary timber plantation species. Excluding land costs, returns for exotic plantations in almost all of South America e Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, and Paraguay e were substantial. Eucalyptus species returns were generally greater than those for Pinus species in each...

  3. an assessment of timber trees producing valuable fruits and seeds ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    It is observed that most of the timber trees producing valuable fruits and seeds have low ... sector of the economy by providing major raw materials (saw logs, ... the trees also produce industrial raw materials like latex, ... villagers while avoiding some of the ecological costs of ..... enzymes of rats with carbon tetrachloride.

  4. Marketing of Non-Timber Forest Products in Kajola Local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Marketing of Non-Timber Forest Products in Kajola Local Government Area of Oyo State, Nigeria. ... International Journal of Tropical Agriculture and Food Systems ... The results of the marketing margin reveal that charcoal commanded the highest margin of ₦2500, followed by bush meat (₦300), while wrapping had the ...

  5. probabilistic evaluation of eur robabilistic evaluation of eur a timber

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    than steel or concrete [13]. Fire is an emotive sub ... Kaura1, I. Abubakar2, U. Hassan3 and I. Aliyu4 ... portal frame in fire is the failure of the rafter-column connection that re column ...... Thin-webbed Timber Beams”, Asian Journal of Civil.

  6. 36 CFR 261.6 - Timber and other forest products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... such product is identified as required in such permit or contract. (f) Selling or exchanging any timber... 74 FR 26091, June 1, 2009, the amendment was delayed indefinitely. For the convenience of the user..., memorandum of agreement, memorandum of understanding, or personal-use authorization (f) Selling or exchanging...

  7. Self-extinguishment of cross-laminated timber

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crielaard, R.; van de Kuilen, J.W.G.; Terwel, K.C.; Ravenshorst, G.J.P.; Steenbakkers, P.; Breunesse, A.

    2016-01-01

    Cross-laminated timber, or CLT, is receiving attention for its potential use in tall buildings. As a combustible material, one of the challenges for the construction of these buildings is the fire risk that results from its use in the structure. Unprotected CLT can burn along with the fuel load

  8. Supply and demand of timber for wood turning in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric H. Wharton; Robert L., Jr. Nevel; Douglas S. Powell; Douglas S. Powell

    1987-01-01

    An analytical report on the volume of wood used by the wood-turning industry in Maine, and the volume of timber from the state's timberlands that may be suitable for turnstock. Findings are based on the third forest resource survey of Maine timberlands, and an industry canvass of primary manufacturing mills using wood from Maine timberlands, both conducted in 1982...

  9. 36 CFR 223.187 - Determinations of unprocessed timber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... generally recognized by the industry as setting a selling standard; and, (ii) A statement by the... setting a selling standard. (3) Lumber, construction timbers, or cants for remanufacture, except western... or better, with a maximum cross section of 2,000 square centimeters (310 square inches) for any...

  10. Chapter 5: Connections Connections in cross-laminated timber buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Mohammad; Bradford Douglas; Douglas Rammer; Steven E. Pryor

    2013-01-01

    The light weight of cross-laminated timber (CLT) products combined with the high level of prefabrication involved, in addition to the need to provide wood-based alternative products and systems to steel land concrete, have significantly contributed to the development of CLT products and systems, especially in mid-rise buildings (5 to 9 stories). While this product is...

  11. Chapter 1: CLT Introduction to cross-laminated timber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvan Gagnon; E.M.(Ted) Bilek; Lisa Podesto; Pablo Crespell

    2013-01-01

    Cross-laminated timber ( CLT), a new generation of engineered wood product developed initially in Europe, has been gaining increased popularity in residential and non-residential applications in several countries. Many impressive low- and mid-rise buildings built around the world using CLT showcase the many advantages this product has to offer to the construction...

  12. Timber beams loaded perpendicular to grain by multiple connections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leijten, A.J.M.; Schoenmakers, J.C.M.

    2014-01-01

    In timber structures, beams which are loaded perpendicular to grain by connections along the span may fail by splitting, resulting in the collapse of the beam. In the past, empirical, semi-empirical and fracture mechanical models have been developed aiming at predicting the splitting failure load.

  13. Determining modulus of elasticity of ancient structural timber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houjiang Zhang; Lei Zhu; Yanliang Sun; Xiping Wang; Haicheng Yan

    2011-01-01

    During maintenance of ancient timber architectures, it is important to determine mechanical properties of the wood component materials non-destructively and effectively, so that degraded members may be replaced or repaired to avoid structural failure. Experimental materials are four larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr.) components, which were taken down from the...

  14. Timber market research, private forests, and policy rhetoric

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2004-01-01

    The development of the profession and practice of forestry in the United States can be linked to urgent concerns regarding timber shortages in the late 19th century (Williams 1989). These were based largely on perceived failures of forest landowners to protect or invest enough in the productive capacity of their forests (Manthy 1977). The South, as the only major...

  15. Forest soil biology-timber harvesting relationships: a perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. F. Jurgensen; M. J. Larsen; A. E. Harvey

    1979-01-01

    Timber harvesting has a pronounced effect on the soil microflora by wood removal and changing properties. This paper gives a perspective on soil biology-harvesting relationships with emphasis on the northern Rocky Mountain region. Of special significance to forest management operations are the effects of soil micro-organisms on: the availability of soil nutrients,...

  16. Idaho's forest products industry and timber harvest, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric A. Simmons; Steven W. Hayes; Todd A. Morgan; Charles E. Keegan; Chris Witt

    2014-01-01

    This report traces the flow of Idaho’s 2011 timber harvest through the primary industries; provides a description of the structure, capacity, and condition of Idaho’s industry; and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Historical wood products industry trends are discussed, as well as changes in harvest, production, employment, and sales.

  17. Effects of timber harvest following wildfire in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; James K. Agee; Gregory H. Aplet; Dennis P. Dykstra; Russell T. Graham; John F. Lehmkuhl; David S. Pilliod; Donald F. Potts; Robert F. Powers; John D. Stuart

    2009-01-01

    Timber harvest following wildfire leads to different outcomes depending on the biophysical setting of the forest, pattern of burn severity, operational aspects of tree removal, and other management activities. Fire effects range from relatively minor, in which fire burns through the understory and may kill a few trees, to severe, in which fire kills most trees and...

  18. A Computer Program to Evaluate Timber Production Investments Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis L. Schweitzer

    1968-01-01

    A computer program has been written in Fortran IV to calculate probability distributions of present worths of investments in timber production. Inputs can include both point and probabilistic estimates of future costs, prices, and yields. Distributions of rates of return can also be constructed.

  19. Strength and stiffness capacity utilisation of timber members in roof ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    C Brand Wessels, Nils-Olaf Petersen. Abstract. The main objective of this study was to determine which property, of the six strength and stiffness properties used in structural timber design, was the most influential in the design of nail-plated roof trusses. Thirty recently completed nail-plated roof truss designs were randomly ...

  20. The Four Corners timber harvest and forest products industry, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colin B. Sorenson; Steven W. Hayes; Todd A. Morgan; Eric A. Simmons; Micah G. Scudder; Chelsea P. McIver; Mike T. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    This report traces the flow of timber harvested in the "Four Corners" States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah) during calendar year 2012, describes the composition and operations of the region’s primary forest products industry, and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Recent changes in the wood products industry are discussed, as well as trends...

  1. The Four Corners timber harvest and forest products industry, 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven W. Hayes; Todd A. Morgan; Erik C. Berg; Jean M. Daniels; Mike Thompson

    2012-01-01

    This report traces the flow of timber harvested in the "Four Corners" States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah) during calendar year 2007, describes the composition and operations of the region's primary forest products industry, and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Historical wood products industry changes are discussed, as well as...

  2. Gender analysis of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) collection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Millions of people, especially those living in rural areas in developing countries collect Non-Timber Forest products (NTFPs) daily. Women are known to play a prominent role in forestry and agricultural production in Nigeria despite not been captured as economically productive. This work looked into gender dimension ...

  3. 25 CFR 163.23 - Advance payment for timber products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... contracts. However, no advance payment will be required that would make the sum of such payment and of... required, advance payments will operate the same as provided for in § 163.23(a) of this part. ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advance payment for timber products. 163.23 Section 163...

  4. Contribution of timber exports to economic growth in Nigeria: an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examined the contribution of timber exports to the economic growth in Nigeria, using an econometric approach. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Johansen Co-integration techniques were respectively used to test for unit root and examine the relationship between the variables used. In addition, Granger ...

  5. ECOLOGICAL EFFECT OF TIMBER EXPRACTION IN OHIMINI LGA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Shima

    as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, ... reduced biodiversity (Wikipedia, 2007). In many countries massive timber extraction is ongoing and is shaping climate and geography. logging affects the amount of water in the soil and groundwater and the moisture in the atmosphere. Forests support considerable biodiversity, providing.

  6. How to establish, maintain and use timber depletion accounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    William C. Siegel

    2001-01-01

    Section 1221 of the Internal Revenue Code defines capital expenditures. In general, these are amounts spent to acquire real estate or equipment, or to make improvements that increase the value of real estate or equipment already owned. Forestry examples include land, buildings, standing timber, reforestation costs, and tractors and trucks. Property owners who incur...

  7. Timber resource statistics for the Sacramento resource area of California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen L. Waddell; Patricia M. Bassett

    1997-01-01

    This report is a summary of timber resource statistics for the Sacramento Resource Area of California, which includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Lake, Napa, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Sacramento, Sierra, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. Data were collected as part of a statewide multiresource inventory. The inventory sampled private and public lands except...

  8. Timber resource statistics for Washington, January 1, 1973.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett; Grover A. Choate

    1974-01-01

    Timber resource statistics to January 1, 1973, for the State of Washington show total land area, commercial timberland area, and growing stock and sawtimber inventory volumes by county and owner group. Growth and removals are shown by Forest Survey inventory unit for 1972. Each National Forest is updated to January 1, 1973.

  9. Timber resource statistics for Oregon, January 1, 1973.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia M. Bassett; Grover A. Choate

    1974-01-01

    Timber resource statistics as of January 1, 1973, for the State of Oregon show total land area, commercial timberland area, and growing stock and sawtimber inventory volumes by county and owner group. Growth and removals are shown by Forest Survey inventory unit for 1972. Each National Forest is updated to January 1, 1973, as well as each Bureau of Land Management...

  10. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  11. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  12. Forest management planning for timber production: a sequential approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna P. Rustagi

    1978-01-01

    Explicit forest management planning for timber production beyond the first few years at any time necessitates use of information which can best be described as suspect. The two-step approach outlined here concentrates on the planning strategy over the next few years without losing sight of the long-run productivity. Frequent updating of the long-range and short-range...

  13. An Ethnobotanical Survey on Fuel Wood and Timber plant Species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A survey was conducted to explore the fuel wood species and timber producing species of Kaghan valleys, Pakistan. Consumption pattern and impact on the forest resources were also taken into consideration. A questionnaire was used as a survey instrument to obtain desired data. For this study, 10 villages were randomly ...

  14. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell

    2014-01-01

    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  15. Total Weight and Axle Loads of Truck Units in the Transport of Timber Depending on the Timber Cargo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Trzciński

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available When transporting timber, the high variability of species, assortments and moisture content of the wood raw material does not allow the weight of the transported timber to be precisely determined. This often contributes to the excessive weight loading of the entire truck unit. The aim of the research is to present the variability of the total weight of truck units with wood cargoes (GVW—gross vehicle weight depending on the weight of the empty unit and the transported timber load, as well as to analyze the changes in GVW, unit loads of wood and load on individual truck unit axles depending on the season. This study analyzes the total weight of truck units for 376 transports of Scots pine timber at different times of the year. The total weight of the truck units depends on the weight of an empty unit and the weight of the load. GVW was determined by using a weighbridge to weigh the vehicles and then the empty unit after unloading. The weight of the load was obtained as the difference between GVW and the tare. It was found that GVW differed significantly depending on the truck unit used, ranging from 43.60–58.80 Mg, often exceeding permissible limits for public roads. The individual axle loads for various truck units were also analyzed. The obtained results indicate that these loads are more equally distributed in the case of five-axle trucks compared to six-axle ones.

  16. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  17. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

    2018-03-01

    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  18. Historic timber skeleton structures and the local seismic culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru, M.

    2009-04-01

    This presentation deals with the employment of timber skeleton structure and the local seismic culture. After the 1755 earthquake in the reconstruction of Lisbon a type of building with timber skeleton and masonry infill called "gaiola pombalina" was promoted, since this was designed to better resists earthquakes. "Gaiola" means cage, and it was also named after the Marques de Pombal who introduced it in the reconstruction following the earthquake. The „gaiola pombalina" presents a timber skeleton with Saint Andrew crosses in the interior walls with masonry infill and thick masonry load bearing walls loosing in thickness to the upper floors in the exterior walls. The masonry can fall out during earthquakes but the building remains staying given the interior timber skeleton. The type of buildings with timber structure and (masonry) infill behaved well in earthquakes in various parts of the earth, like Nepal (the dhaji dewary type), Pakistan, Turkey (the himiş type after the 1999 earthquake) [both latter types were researched by Langenbach, www.conservationtech.com and www.traditional-is-modern.net] and also in Germany after the 1356 earthquake (the Southern German subtype of Fachwerk). Also in Italy a subtype called "casa baraccata" was promoted in a construction code to a similar time (following the 1783 earthquake in Southern Italy, see Tobriner 1983) as that of the "gaiola pombalina", the time of the Baroque, when town planning acquired another status. Unlike at the "gaiola pombalina" the "casa baraccata" the timber skeleton is at the exterior walls. For this reason this type of buildings is considered to be an expression of the local seismic culture. However, this type of buildings is common also for areas where seismic risk is not an issue, like half-timbered in England and the northern subtype of Fachwerk in Northern Germany, and in some high seismic risk regions with mountains and timber resources like Romania is not spread. Given these premises the author

  19. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  20. Case Studies on Timber Defects of Selected Traditional Houses in Malacca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nor Haniza Ishak

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The effect of adverse environmental conditions on building materials and the extent of damage caused depends on both the materials used and the environmental conditions. Although timber is a diminishing resource, it is still widely used in today's construction. In Malaysia, timber is one of the main components of many historic buildings. Appropriate maintenance of such buildings requires an understanding of timber defects and its related problems. Timber defects are classified into two major groups: non-biological and biological deteriorations. Non-biological deterioration consists of physical decay, excessive moisture content, dimensional instability and chemical deterioration. These defects are mainly caused by the timber in service being subjected to environmental exposure. The most common and destructive timber biological deteriorations are those due to dry rot, we t rot as well as insect attacks . A study based on seven selected houses was conducted to identify the most common building defects, specifically on timber components amongst traditional Malay houses in Malacca, Malaysia, A building condition survey was carried out to determine the effect of the environment towards timber buildings and their main components. Data collected were based on the investigation and visual observation of the selected case studies. Findings of this research will serve as an indicator towards maintaining the buildings' timber components in good condition in order that the buildings' life span could be extended and primarily to conserve the valuable traditional timber houses in a historical city.

  1. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  2. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  3. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel

    2012-06-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  4. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  5. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  6. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Valencia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  7. Improvements of ENSO-monsoon relationship in CMIP5 models through statistical downscaling over India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhter, J.; Das, L.; Deb, A.

    2017-12-01

    Present study has assessed the skills of global climate models (GCMS) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationships over seven homogeneous zones of India. Observational sea surface temperature (SST) data has revealed that there has been a significant negative correlation between zonal precipitation and Nino 3.4 index over North Mountainous India, North West India, North Central India, West Peninsular India and South Peninsular India. First and third principal component (PC) of zonal precipitation explaining 44.4% and 14.2% variance respectively has also shown significant anti-correlation with Nino 3.4. Analysis with CMIP5 models revealed that majority of GCMs have failed to reproduce both magnitude and phase of such relationships mainly due to poor simulation of Nino 3.4 index. Therefore, an attempt has been made to improve the results through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based statistical downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs. To downscale Nino 3.4 index, an optimal predictor combination of PCs extracted from EOF fields of large scale GCM predictors like Geo-potential height, u and v wind, Specific and relative humidity and air temperature at pressure levels 500, 850 and 1000 hpa, mean sea level pressure and atmospheric vapor content has been utilized. Results indicated improvements of downscaled CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationship for zone wise precipitation. Multi-model ensemble (MME) of downscaled GCMs has better skill than individuals GCM. Therefore, downscaled MME may be used more reliably to investigate future ENSO-monsoon relationship under various warming scenarios

  8. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  9. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Pinault

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  10. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2017-07-18

    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  11. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2016-02-01

    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  12. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  13. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.

    2018-03-01

    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.

  14. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Olsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  15. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  16. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.

    2014-12-01

    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  17. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  18. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  19. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  20. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO

  1. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  2. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  3. Local timber firm looking forward to develop on medium term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BUCS Lorant

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article intends to outline the challenges faced by a local timber company in struggle to resist on medium-term on the market. There will be revealed the challenges the company is facing, and also the ways to adapt to the changing world of timber industry. There will be presented a short history of the founding and the evolution of the company on the local and international market, pointing out the relevant events which have marked the life of the company during the years. There will also be presented a short review of the competition on the market and the marketing strategy and policies which the company is using to be able to face the new challenges.

  4. Performance of Sprayed Fiber Reinforced Polymer Strengthened Timber Beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Talukdar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to investigate the use of Sprayed Fiber Reinforced Polymer (SFRP for retrofit of timber beams. A total of 10-full scale specimens were tested. Two different timber preservatives and two different bonding agents were investigated. Strengthening was characterized using load deflection diagrams. Results indicate that it is possible to enhance load-carrying capacity and energy absorption characteristics using the technique of SFRP. Of the two types of preservatives investigated, the technique appears to be more effective for the case of creosote-treated specimens, where up to a 51% improvement in load-carrying capacity and a 460% increase in the energy absorption capacity were noted. Effectiveness of the bonding agent used was dependent on the type of preservative the specimen had been treated with.

  5. Seismic Strengthening of Carpentry Joints in Traditional Timber Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parisi, Maria A.; Cordie, Cinzia; Piazza, Maurizio

    2008-01-01

    The static and dynamic behavior of timber structures largely depends on their connections. In traditional timber construction, elements are usually connected with carpentry joints based on contact pressure and friction, often with only minor reinforcement generically intended to avoid disassembling. In current practice, interventions for the upgrading of carpentry joints are mainly based on empirical knowledge according to tradition. Often they produce a general strengthening of the connection, but are not specific for the case of seismic action. Strengthening on heuristic bases may be only partially effective or possibly disproportioned. The behavior of the carpentry joints most used in roof structures is examined. The birdsmouth joint, connecting rafters to the tie beam, has been studied first, characterizing its behavior numerically and experimentally in monotonic and cyclic conditions. Other forms of the rafter-to-tie connection, the double notch joint and the case of parallel rafters, are discussed. Some general criteria for the seismic strengthening of these joints are presented

  6. Robustness Analysis of Typologies of Reciprocal Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Parigi, Dario

    2013-01-01

    to the future development of typologies of reciprocal timber structures. The paper concludes that these kinds of structures can have a potential as long span timber structures in real projects if they are carefully designed with respect to the overall robustness strategies.......Robustness of structural systems has obtained a renewed interest due to a much more frequent use of advanced types of structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in case of failure. In order to minimise the likelihood of such disproportionate structural failures many modern building...... codes consider the need for robustness in structures and provides strategies and methods to obtain robustness. Therefore a structural engineer may take necessary steps to design robust structures that are insensitive to accidental circumstances. The present paper outlines robustness issues related...

  7. Seismic Strengthening of Carpentry Joints in Traditional Timber Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, Maria A.; Cordié, Cinzia; Piazza, Maurizio

    2008-07-01

    The static and dynamic behavior of timber structures largely depends on their connections. In traditional timber construction, elements are usually connected with carpentry joints based on contact pressure and friction, often with only minor reinforcement generically intended to avoid disassembling. In current practice, interventions for the upgrading of carpentry joints are mainly based on empirical knowledge according to tradition. Often they produce a general strengthening of the connection, but are not specific for the case of seismic action. Strengthening on heuristic bases may be only partially effective or possibly disproportioned. The behavior of the carpentry joints most used in roof structures is examined. The birdsmouth joint, connecting rafters to the tie beam, has been studied first, characterizing its behavior numerically and experimentally in monotonic and cyclic conditions. Other forms of the rafter-to-tie connection, the double notch joint and the case of parallel rafters, are discussed. Some general criteria for the seismic strengthening of these joints are presented.

  8. Timber productivity research gaps for extensive forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.C. Irland

    2011-01-01

    On extensive areas of small scale forests, significant opportunities for improving the value of future timber harvests while also improving other resource values are now being missed. A new focus on practical extensive management research is needed, especially as implementation of intensive practices has been declining in many areas, and new ‘‘close to nature’’...

  9. The supply and demand situation for oak timber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth L. Quigley

    1971-01-01

    Twenty oak species in the eastern United States account for one-third of the hardwood sawtimber volume and almost 10 percent of both hardwood and softwood growing-stock volume. The oak-hickory and oak-pine forest types occupy about 38 percent of the forest land in the eastern United States. Oak timber volume is increasing. Annual growth exceeds annual removals by about...

  10. Long-term Deformation Measurements of Atypical Roof Timber Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Bureš

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper includes conclusions from evaluation of results obtained from long-termmeasuring of innovative atypical roof timber structures. Based on the results ofmeasurements of vertical and horizontal deformation components it is possible to analyzethe real behavior of structures in given conditions. By assessing deformations in variousstages, including particularly external and internal environment temperatures, relative airhumidity and moisture content of wood, decisive parameters for real structure behaviorcan be established. The data are processed from period 2001 – 2013.

  11. WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF TIMBERLAND OWNERSHIP CHANGES IN THE U.S. TIMBER MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades, many forest product firms in the U.S. either divested their timberlands to timber investment management organizations (TIMOs and conservation organizations or converted their corporate structures from C corporations to real estate investment trusts (REITs. All landowners sold smaller timberland tracts for nonforestry uses. Reduced timber supplies from conservation organizations and timberland loss to other nonforestry uses have consequences on producer and consumer surpluses in the U.S. timber markets. Equilibrium displacement model has been employed to evaluate the welfare changes in U.S. timber markets attributed to timberland ownership changes. Net reduction of timber supply contributed to the reduction of social surplus by $43 million in 2006. Compared to the $33 billion plus U.S. timber markets, this welfare reduction was small. Overall, this article explains the shifts of economic surpluses among producers and net surplus reduction for the society attributed to timberland ownership changes in the United States.

  12. Sustainability and Security: Timber Certification in Asia-Pacific Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonina Ivanova

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of sustainable development initiatives since the 1990’s reflected an emphasis on integrated solutions to economic development, socio-political stability and environmental health in the global community. In the same context the traditional concept of security needed to be open in two directions. First, the notion of security should no longer be applied only to the military realm, but also to the economic, the societal, the environmental, and the political fields. Second, the referent object of the “security” should not be conceptualized solely in terms of the state, but should embrace the individual below the state, and the international system above it. The forests industry timber certification in Asia-Pacific region has been selected as a case study because it is an excellent example to illustrate the links between the sustainable development and the environmental security, including also certain elements of economic security. This article is presenting a critical overview of the forest industry and the status of timber certification globally, with an emphasis on Asia – Pacific countries applying the Systemic Thinking approach. In conclusion, an outlook is presented concerning the future of timber certification and possible impacts on security and sustainable development.

  13. Geology, Burnst Timber Creek, west of fifth meridian, Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1966-01-01

    The Burnt Timber Creek map-area lies in the southern Foothills of Alberta and includes a narrow strip of the Front Range of the Rocky Mts. along its western edge. The area may be divided into 3 principal structural units, underlain from west to east by the McConnell, Burnt Timber, and Fallentimber thrusts, respectively. McConnell thrust underlies the eastern edge of the mountains. Subsidiary folding and faulting are locally evident in the Paleozoic strata above the thrust. Beneath the McConnell thrust, Mesozoic and Paleozoic strata of the Burnt Timber thrust sheet are strongly overturned in the Panther anticline. The axis of this anticline trends northwest. A culmination along it, in the vicinity of Sheep Creek, deforms the McConnel thrust as well. A total of 16 wells have been drilled to date in 4 separate groups. Each group has revealed the presence of gas and 8 of the wells have been capped as potential gas producers. The reservoir rocks are of Mississippian and Devonian age. Shell Panther River No. 1 well (5-19-30-10W5) is remarkable in having tested at about 86% hydrogen sulfide.

  14. A cut above: building the market for fair trade timber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan

    2008-02-15

    Unlike coffee and cotton, timber has yet to become a fair trade commodity. But now its time has come. Rights over forest resources are increasingly ceded to small-scale community forest enterprises (CFEs), as large-scale industrial logging is now largely discredited in the sustainable development context. The fair trade emphasis on just pricing for poorer producers is exactly what CFEs need as incentive to invest in sustainable forest management — and secure environmental and poverty reduction benefits at one stroke. With fair trade timber, CFEs could boost their entrepreneurial capacity using democratic business models with in-built social and environmental responsibility. The Fair Trade Labelling Organizations International and Forest Stewardship Council are exploring the ways and means through a new partnership, but more is needed. Consumers must be made aware of why paying higher prices is key to creating CFE incentives for sustainable forest management and poverty reduction. Time and money are needed for consumer education and installing fair trade timber in producer country forest policies, market segregation and procurement policies at all levels.

  15. Some background of monitoring and NDT also useful for timber structures

    OpenAIRE

    Kurz, Jochen Horst; Boller, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Extension of the life of existing and historic timber structures has increased steadily in the last decade. Sustainability and low carbon emission have influenced activities in the construction industry. In the frame of the European COST Action FP 1101, several activities related to timber structures have been clustered. The COST Action FP 1101 consists of three working groups, namely Assessment (Working Group 1), Reinforcement (Working Group 2) and Monitoring (Working Group 3) of Timber Stru...

  16. The Level of Utilization of Secondary Timber Species among Furniture Producers

    OpenAIRE

    Antwi-Boasiako, Charles; Boadu, Kwadwo Boakye

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose: Inadequate supply of wood raw material is one of the major obstacles for the global furniture industry’s growth. Several secondary timbers/Lesser-Utilized-Species (LUS) that could substitute the scarce traditional timbers for furniture production exist in tropical forests. However, the industry continuously faces persistent timber shortages. The extent to which manufacturers utilize LUS as alternatives is unclear, which this study sought to ascertain. Materials and ...

  17. Robustness Analysis of a Wide-Span Timber Structure with Ductile Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Cizmar, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers robustness evaluation of a wide span timber truss structure where the ductile behavior is taken into account. The robustness analysis is based on a structural reliability framework used on a simplified mechanical system modelling a timber truss system. A measure of ductile...... behaviour is introduced and for different values of this measure the robustness indices are estimated. The results indicate that the robustness of a timber truss system can be increased by taking the ductile behavior into....

  18. Characteristics of Timbers Dried Using Kiln Drying and Radio Frequency-Vacuum Drying Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Rabidin Zairul Amin; Seng Gan Kee; Wahab Mohd Jamil Abdul

    2017-01-01

    Heavy hardwoods are difficult-to-dry timbers as they are prone to checking and internal stresses when dried using a conventional kiln drying system. These timbers are usually dried naturally to reach 15% to 19% moisture content with an acceptable defects. Besides long drying time, timbers at these moisture contents are not suitable for indoor applications since they will further dry and causing, for example, jointing and lamination failures. Drying to a lower moisture content could only be ac...

  19. The Level of Utilization of Secondary Timber Species among Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Antwi-Boasiako

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Inadequate supply of wood raw material is one of the major obstacles for the global furniture industry’s growth. Several secondary timbers/Lesser-Utilized-Species (LUS that could substitute the scarce traditional timbers for furniture production exist in tropical forests. However, the industry continuously faces persistent timber shortages. The extent to which manufacturers utilize LUS as alternatives is unclear, which this study sought to ascertain. Materials and Methods: Data were collected from 300 Timber Firms from Ghana primarily through questionnaires using the stratified random sampling technique. Results: Continuous decline and non-availability of preferred traditional timbers and competition from imported furniture were the main challenges confronting the furniture industry. Data obtained indicated that most manufacturers (85% hardly use any LUS; 44% of these mentioned lack of information on their properties and prospective uses and 32% attributed it to non-availability on the domestic timber markets. However, 22% of these producers rely on traditionally ‘well-known’ timbers (e.g. mixed red wood, Guarea cedrata and Tectona grandis owing to their strength properties, 20% due to their strength and durability and 14% because of their strength and aesthetic properties. Many LUS (with prospects for furniture-making available in great quantities in many tropical forests could substitute the over-dependent timbers. However, information on their properties and uses are hardly available to local producers, which affects their popularity among timber suppliers and manufacturers. Conclusion: To improve on the level of utilization of secondary timbers, wood workers must be supplied with comprehensive information about their properties and economic values. This will contribute to reducing pressure on the primary timbers, ensuring consistent supply of timber and keeping the sector operational.

  20. Development of Hybrid Kiln Drying System with Radio Frequency Heating for the Sugi Heart Timber

    OpenAIRE

    Piao, Jinji; Fujimoto, Noboru; Yamamoto, Yasushi; Nagata, Soji

    2007-01-01

    In this study, proper applied stage of the radio-frequency (RF) heating during kiln drying based on the quality concerning the surface checks of the boxed heart timbers was examined. At the stage of the RF heating the moisture contents decreased clearly at the internal parts of timbers. The surface stress of the sugi (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) boxed heart timber changed into the compression stress by the RF heating in any drying stage. The surface checks increased according to the decrease...

  1. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  2. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

    2003-04-01

    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  3. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  4. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  5. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

    2017-03-01

    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  6. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  7. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  8. Outgrower timber schemes in KwaZulu-Natal – Do they build sustainable rural livelihoods and what interventions should be made?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cairns, RI

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale timber growers access commercial timber markets in KwaZulu-Natal through three mechanisms. These are; highly structured contractual arrangements (SAPPI, Lima and Mondi); membership in commercial forest-owners associations or timber...

  9. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  10. Timber Regulation and Value Chain in Community-Based Timber Enterprise and Smallholder Forestry in the Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M. Pulhin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest tenure reform has no doubt attained significant gains in promoting social justice and equity in the forest sector, through legal recognition of the communities’ property rights over forest lands in many developing countries. This includes the right to harvest and market trees that the communities planted. Along these lines, the Philippines’ community-based forest management (CBFM and smallholder forestry have the potential to meet the country’s wood demand and contribute to its poverty alleviation goal. Realities on the ground, however, make this lofty aspiration seems too far-fetched. Formal and informal barriers along the timber value chain restrict the growth and obstruct opportunities for community-based timber enterprises (CBTEs and smallholder forestry. Using the case of CBFM and smallholder forestry in the Visayas and Mindanao Islands in the Philippines, respectively, this paper examines the hurdles posed by regulations and informal practices, such as restrictive policies and increased transaction costs, through a segment analysis of the timber value chain. It argues that failure to address these barriers would lead to the decline of CBTEs and smallholder enterprises, thus undermining the merits of the forest tenure reform.

  11. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo T Arriaza

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  12. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  13. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

    2017-11-01

    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  14. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2013-05-01

    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  15. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  16. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

    2017-12-01

    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  17. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju

    2017-12-01

    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  18. Friction welding of wood – A fast, adhesive-free bonding technology for prefabricated elements in timber construction

    OpenAIRE

    Hahn, Benjamin; Hatt, Fred

    2013-01-01

    Up to now chemical adhesives based on polyurethane are used for the assembling of timber planks to large-scale structural elements, in particular cross-laminated timber panels (CLT), which opened new possibilities for architects and engineers in timber construction. The use of these adhesives still implicates, beside others, concerns about their impact on health and environment during application as well for later disposal. In order to overcome the geometrical limitations of timber by maintai...

  19. Oxalic acid as an assisting agent for the electrodialytic remediation of chromated copper arsenate treated timber waste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro, Alexandra B.; Mateus, Eduardo P.; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    1999-01-01

    The electrodialytic process is proposed as a technique for the remediation of chromated copper arsenate treated timber waste, using oxalic acid as assisting agent. The method prowed succesfull 93% Cu, 95% Cr and 99% As was removed from the timber.......The electrodialytic process is proposed as a technique for the remediation of chromated copper arsenate treated timber waste, using oxalic acid as assisting agent. The method prowed succesfull 93% Cu, 95% Cr and 99% As was removed from the timber....

  20. SOFRA and RPA: two views of the future of southern timber supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius Adams; John Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard. Haynes

    2005-01-01

    Two recent studies provide alternative views of the current state and future prospects of southern forests and timber supply: the Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SOFRA) and the Fifth Resources Planning Act Timber Assessment (RPA). Using apparently comparable data but different models and methods, the studies portray futures that in some aspects are quite similar...

  1. Development of a smart timber bridge girder with fiber optic sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Wacker; Ursula Deza; Brent M. Phares; Terry J. Wipf

    2010-01-01

    Past timber bridge evaluation and maintenance efforts in the USA have principally focused on the internal integrity of timber components using various non-destructive evaluation tools to supplement visual inspection data. This project is part of a comprehensive effort to develop smart structure concepts for improving the long-term performance, maintenance, and...

  2. Market of innovative timber products in Europe and Serbia and their contribution to climate change mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sretenović Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows results of researching the market of glued laminated timber as the most frequent innovative timber product in constructing timber framed residential facilities in Europe and Serbia. The research included the development of production, consumption and trade flows for the most significant countries in the European Union and Serbia. Additionally, the paper gives characteristics of this innovative timber product regarding dimensions, allowed deviations of dimensions defined in adequate European standard, wood species it is made of and fire resistance. The last part of the paper shows results of econometric modeling of the impact of building timber-framed houses on the consumption of glued laminated timber in Austria as one of the countries belonging to the group of the largest consumers of this innovative timber product in Europe. Taking into consideration that the substitution of classic building materials, primarily concrete, steel and aluminum, with glued laminated timber in residential construction contributes to the reduction of carbon-dioxide emission and climate change mitigation, research results of the effects of such substitution are presented in the last chapter in this paper. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III43007: Istraživanje klimatskih promena na životnu sredinu: praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje

  3. Live-load performance evaluation of historic covered timber bridges in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junwon Seo; Travis K. Hosteng; Brent M. Phares; James P. Wacker

    2015-01-01

    The National Historic Covered Bridge Preservation Program (NHCBP), sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), was established to preserve the covered timber bridge structures that were constructed in the early 1800s. Today, many of the approximately 880 covered timber bridges still in existence in the United States are closed to vehicular traffic;...

  4. Simplified Analytical Model for a Queen-Post Covered Timber Bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    F Fanous; D. Rammer; T. Wipf

    2013-01-01

    During the 19th century, the economic material to build bridges was timber due to its abundant availability, cost, and ease of construction. Many of the well-known timber bridge types are the Burr arch, Town lattice, Howe, Queen and King type of trusses. This paper summarizes an investigation that was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration and the USDA Forest...

  5. Field performance of timber bridges. 7, Connell Lake stress-laminated deck bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. E. Hislop; M. A. Ritter

    The Connell Lake bridge was constructed in early 1991 on the Tongass National Forest, Alaska, as a demonstration bridge under the Timber Bridge Initiative. The bridge is a stress-laminated deck structure with an approximate 36-ft length and 18-ft width and is the first known stress-laminated timber bridge constructed in Alaska. Performance of the bridge was monitored...

  6. The Economics of Timber Supply: An Analytical Synthesis of Modeling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Peter J. Parks

    1994-01-01

    The joint supply of timber and other services from forest environments plays a central role in most forest land debates. This paper defines a general conceptual model of timber supply that provides the context for discussing both individual harvest choice and aggregate supply models. While the structure and breadth of these models has developed considerably over the...

  7. Successful and unsuccessful attempts to resolve caribou management and timber harvesting issues in west central Alberta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Hervieux

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Research studies of woodland caribou in west central Alberta began in 1979 in response to proposed timber harvesting on their winter ranges. Using results from initial studies, timber harvest guidelines were developed. A recent review of these guidelines, and the assumptions on which they were based, has resulted in a renegotiation by government and industry of timber harvesting on caribou range in west central Alberta. Caribou range in west central Alberta overlaps many jurisdictional boundaries: federal and provincial lands, four Forest Management Agreement Areas, three Alberta Land and Forest Service Regions and two Alberta Fish and Wildlife Service Regions. This jurisdictional complexity in combination with other factors such as total allocation of the timber resources, high levels of petroleum, natural gas and coal extraction activities, a high level of concern by public groups for caribou conservation and recent understanding of woodland caribou needs for abundant space has made resolution of caribou/timber harvest conflicts exceedingly slow and often relatively unproductive. This paper reviews 10 years of trying to resolve conflicts between timber harvesting and caribou conservation through meetings, committees, integrated resource planning, policy papers and public consultation. We describe what might be learned by other jurisdictions that are trying to resolve similar caribou/timber harvesting issues. We conclude with an overview of recent timber harvest planning initiatives on caribou range in west central Alberta.

  8. Nondestructive assessment of single-span timber bridges using a vibration- based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiping Wang; James P. Wacker; Angus M. Morison; John W. Forsman; John R. Erickson; Robert J. Ross

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes an effort to develop a global dynamic testing technique for evaluating the overall stiffness of timber bridge superstructures. A forced vibration method was used to measure the natural frequency of single-span timber bridges in the laboratory and field. An analytical model based on simple beam theory was proposed to represent the relationship...

  9. Cut and Run: Illegal Logging and Timber Trade in the Tropics | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Illegal logging and trade in timber is a major cause of forest degradation in the world ... But controlling this global problem is not a simple matter of enacting new laws ... practices in the logging industry and timber trade of four tropical countries.

  10. Responses of timber rattlesnakes to fire: Lessons from two prescribed burns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven J. Beaupre; Lara E. Douglas

    2012-01-01

    Timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) are excellent model organisms for understanding the effects of large scale habitat manipulations because of their low-energy lifestyle, rapid response to changes in resource environment, uniform diet (small mammals), and simple behaviors. We present two case studies that illustrate interactions between timber...

  11. Expanding the scale of forest management: allocating timber harvests in time and space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson

    1996-01-01

    This study examined the effect of clustering timber harvest zones and of changing the land use categories of zones (dynamic zoning) over varying temporal and spatial scales. Focusing on the Hoosier National Forest (HNF) in Indiana, USA as a study area, I used a timber harvest allocation model to simulate four management alternatives. In the static zoning alternative,...

  12. Service life assessment of timber highway bridges in USA climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    James P. Wacker; Brian K. Brashaw; Thomas G. Williamson; P. David Jones; Matthew S. Smith; Travis K. Hosteng; David L. Strahl; Lola E. Coombe; V.J. Gopu

    2014-01-01

    As engineers begin to estimate life-cycle costs and sustainable design approaches for timber bridges, there is a need for more reliable data about their durability and expected service life. This paper summarizes a comprehensive effort to assess the current condition of more than one hundred timber highway bridge superstructures throughout the United States. This...

  13. Sustainable forest management of tropical forests can reduce carbon emissions and stabilize timber production

    Science.gov (United States)

    N. Sasaki; G.P. Asner; Yude Pan; W. Knorr; P.B. Durst; H.O. Ma; I. Abe; A.J. Lowe; L.P. Koh

    2016-01-01

    The REDD+ scheme of the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change has provided opportunities to manage tropical forests for timber production and carbon emission reductions. To determine the appropriate loggingtechniques, we analyzed potential timber production and carbon emission reductions under two logging techniques over a 40-year period of selective...

  14. 36 CFR 223.195 - Procedures for identifying and marking unprocessed timber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... procedures required herein. (f) Waiver of branding requirements. Regional Foresters may waive the branding... individual timber sale basis, all or a portion of the branding requirements pursuant to paragraph (c)(2) of...) Regions 5 and 6. On an individual timber sale basis, the branding requirement pursuant to paragraph (c)(2...

  15. 3 CFR - Establishment of the Interagency Committee on Trade in Timber Products from Peru and Assignment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... in Timber Products from Peru and Assignment of Function under Section 501 of the United States-Peru... Memorandum of May 1, 2009 Establishment of the Interagency Committee on Trade in Timber Products from Peru and Assignment of Function under Section 501 of the United States-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement...

  16. Concurring Regulation in European Forest Law; Forest Certification and the New EU Timber Regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kistenkas, F.H.

    2013-01-01

    Newly made EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) may prima facie look like competing regulation and an overlap of the existing forest certification schemes of FSC and PEFC as also EUTR combats illegally harvested timber. The novel EUTR, however, is a public law scheme wheras FSC and PEFC are private law

  17. Laboratory investigation of fire protection coatings for creosote-treated timber railroad bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carol A. Clausen; Robert H. White; James P. Wacker; Stan T. Lebow; Mark A. Dietenberger; Samuel L. Zelinka; Nicole M. Stark

    2014-01-01

    As the incidence of timber railroad bridge fires increases, so has the need to develop protective measures to reduce the risk from accidental ignitions primarily caused by hot metal objects. Of the six barrier treatments evaluated in the laboratory for their ability to protect timbers from fires sourced with ignition from hot metal objects only one intumescent coating...

  18. Timber bridge evaluation : a global nondestructive approach using impact generated FRFs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angus Morison; C.D. Van Karsen; H.A. Evensen; J.B. Ligon; J.R. Erickson; R.J. Ross; J.W. Forsman

    2002-01-01

    Bridges require periodic inspections to ensure the safety of those using the structure. A visual inspection has historically been the most common form of investigation for timber bridges. This poses many problems when inspecting bridge timbers since often the damage is internal, leaving no visible signs of decay on the surface. Localized nondestructive evaluation (NDE...

  19. Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

    1992-01-01

    Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

  20. The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

    1999-01-01

    Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...