Dynamics of stochastic systems
Klyatskin, Valery I
2005-01-01
Fluctuating parameters appear in a variety of physical systems and phenomena. They typically come either as random forces/sources, or advecting velocities, or media (material) parameters, like refraction index, conductivity, diffusivity, etc. The well known example of Brownian particle suspended in fluid and subjected to random molecular bombardment laid the foundation for modern stochastic calculus and statistical physics. Other important examples include turbulent transport and diffusion of particle-tracers (pollutants), or continuous densities (''''oil slicks''''), wave propagation and scattering in randomly inhomogeneous media, for instance light or sound propagating in the turbulent atmosphere.Such models naturally render to statistical description, where the input parameters and solutions are expressed by random processes and fields.The fundamental problem of stochastic dynamics is to identify the essential characteristics of system (its state and evolution), and relate those to the input parameters of ...
Stochastic runaway of dynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pfirsch, D.; Graeff, P.
1984-10-01
One-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems are well studied with respect to their stability properties. Less is known for the higher dimensional case. This paper derives sufficient and necessary criteria for the asymptotic divergence of the entropy (runaway) and sufficient ones for the moments of n-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems. The crucial implication is the incompressibility of their flow defined by the equations of motion in configuration space. Two possible extensions to compressible flow systems are outlined. (orig.)
Stochastic Thermodynamics: A Dynamical Systems Approach
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Tanmay Rajpurohit
2017-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an energy-based, large-scale dynamical system model driven by Markov diffusion processes to present a unified framework for statistical thermodynamics predicated on a stochastic dynamical systems formalism. Specifically, using a stochastic state space formulation, we develop a nonlinear stochastic compartmental dynamical system model characterized by energy conservation laws that is consistent with statistical thermodynamic principles. In particular, we show that the difference between the average supplied system energy and the average stored system energy for our stochastic thermodynamic model is a martingale with respect to the system filtration. In addition, we show that the average stored system energy is equal to the mean energy that can be extracted from the system and the mean energy that can be delivered to the system in order to transfer it from a zero energy level to an arbitrary nonempty subset in the state space over a finite stopping time.
Stochastic properties of the Friedman dynamical system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Szydlowski, M.; Heller, M.; Golda, Z.
1985-01-01
Some mathematical aspects of the stochastic cosmology are discussed in the corresponding ordinary Friedman world models. In particulare, it is shown that if the strong and Lorentz energy conditions are known, or the potential function is given, or a stochastic measure is suitably defined then the structure of the phase plane of the Friedman dynamical system is determined. 11 refs., 2 figs. (author)
Lectures on Dynamics of Stochastic Systems
Klyatskin, Valery I
2010-01-01
Fluctuating parameters appear in a variety of physical systems and phenomena. They typically come either as random forces/sources, or advecting velocities, or media (material) parameters, like refraction index, conductivity, diffusivity, etc. Models naturally render to statistical description, where random processes and fields express the input parameters and solutions. The fundamental problem of stochastic dynamics is to identify the essential characteristics of system (its state and evolution), and relate those to the input parameters of the system and initial data. This book is a revised a
Safety Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sloth, Christoffer; Wisniewski, Rafael
2015-01-01
This paper presents a method for verifying the safety of a stochastic system. In particular, we show how to compute the largest set of initial conditions such that a given stochastic system is safe with probability p. To compute the set of initial conditions we rely on the moment method that via...... that shows how the p-safe initial set is computed numerically....
Dynamics of non-holonomic systems with stochastic transport
Holm, D. D.; Putkaradze, V.
2018-01-01
This paper formulates a variational approach for treating observational uncertainty and/or computational model errors as stochastic transport in dynamical systems governed by action principles under non-holonomic constraints. For this purpose, we derive, analyse and numerically study the example of an unbalanced spherical ball rolling under gravity along a stochastic path. Our approach uses the Hamilton-Pontryagin variational principle, constrained by a stochastic rolling condition, which we show is equivalent to the corresponding stochastic Lagrange-d'Alembert principle. In the example of the rolling ball, the stochasticity represents uncertainty in the observation and/or error in the computational simulation of the angular velocity of rolling. The influence of the stochasticity on the deterministically conserved quantities is investigated both analytically and numerically. Our approach applies to a wide variety of stochastic, non-holonomically constrained systems, because it preserves the mathematical properties inherited from the variational principle.
Stochastic dynamic analysis of marine risers considering Gaussian system uncertainties
Ni, Pinghe; Li, Jun; Hao, Hong; Xia, Yong
2018-03-01
This paper performs the stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers with material uncertainties, i.e. in the mass density and elastic modulus, by using Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and model reduction technique. These uncertainties are assumed having Gaussian distributions. The random mass density and elastic modulus are represented by using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion. The Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion is adopted to represent the vibration response because the covariance of the output is unknown. Model reduction based on the Iterated Improved Reduced System (IIRS) technique is applied to eliminate the PC coefficients of the slave degrees of freedom to reduce the dimension of the stochastic system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to obtain the reference response statistics. Two numerical examples are studied in this paper. The response statistics from the proposed approach are compared with those from MCS. It is noted that the computational time is significantly reduced while the accuracy is kept. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach for stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers.
Stochastic dynamics of a delayed bistable system with multiplicative noise
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dung, Nguyen Tien, E-mail: dung-nguyentien10@yahoo.com, E-mail: dungnt@fpt.edu.vn [Department of Mathematics, FPT University, No 8 Ton That Thuyet, My Dinh, Tu Liem, Hanoi (Viet Nam)
2014-05-15
In this paper we investigate the properties of a delayed bistable system under the effect of multiplicative noise. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the positive solution and show that its moments are uniformly bounded. Then, we study stochastic dynamics of the solution in long time, the lower and upper bounds for the paths and an estimate for the average value are provided.
Quantum dynamics of classical stochastic systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Casati, G
1983-01-01
It is shown that one hand Quantum Mechanics introduces limitations to the manifestations of chaotic motion resulting, for the case of the periodically kicked rotator, in the limitation of energy growth; also, as it is confirmed by numerical experiments, phenomena like the exponential instability of orbits, inherent to strongly chaotic systems, are absent here and therefore Quantum Mechanics appear to be more stable and predictable than Classical Mechanics. On the other hand, we have seen that nonrecurrent behavior may arise in Quantum Systems and it is connected to the presence of singular continuous spectrum. We conjecture that the classical chaotic behavior is reflected, at least partially, in the nature of the spectrum and the singular-continuity of the latter may possess a self-similar structure typical of classical chaos.
Stochastic Erosion of Fractal Structure in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
Agarwal, S.; Wettlaufer, J. S.
2014-12-01
We analyze the effects of stochastic noise on the Lorenz-63 model in the chaotic regime to demonstrate a set of general issues arising in the interpretation of data from nonlinear dynamical systems typical in geophysics. The model is forced using both additive and multiplicative, white and colored noise and it is shown that, through a suitable choice of the noise intensity, both additive and multiplicative noise can produce similar dynamics. We use a recently developed measure, histogram distance, to show the similarity between the dynamics produced by additive and multiplicative forcing. This phenomenon, in a nonlinear fractal structure with chaotic dynamics can be explained by understanding how noise affects the Unstable Periodic Orbits (UPOs) of the system. For delta-correlated noise, the UPOs erode the fractal structure. In the presence of memory in the noise forcing, the time scale of the noise starts to interact with the period of some UPO and, depending on the noise intensity, stochastic resonance may be observed. This also explains the mixing in dissipative dynamical systems in presence of white noise; as the fractal structure is smoothed, the decay of correlations is enhanced, and hence the rate of mixing increases with noise intensity.
Dynamic Stochastic Superresolution of sparsely observed turbulent systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Branicki, M.; Majda, A.J.
2013-01-01
Real-time capture of the relevant features of the unresolved turbulent dynamics of complex natural systems from sparse noisy observations and imperfect models is a notoriously difficult problem. The resulting lack of observational resolution and statistical accuracy in estimating the important turbulent processes, which intermittently send significant energy to the large-scale fluctuations, hinders efficient parameterization and real-time prediction using discretized PDE models. This issue is particularly subtle and important when dealing with turbulent geophysical systems with an vast range of interacting spatio-temporal scales and rough energy spectra near the mesh scale of numerical models. Here, we introduce and study a suite of general Dynamic Stochastic Superresolution (DSS) algorithms and show that, by appropriately filtering sparse regular observations with the help of cheap stochastic exactly solvable models, one can derive stochastically ‘superresolved’ velocity fields and gain insight into the important characteristics of the unresolved dynamics, including the detection of the so-called black swans. The DSS algorithms operate in Fourier domain and exploit the fact that the coarse observation network aliases high-wavenumber information into the resolved waveband. It is shown that these cheap algorithms are robust and have significant skill on a test bed of turbulent solutions from realistic nonlinear turbulent spatially extended systems in the presence of a significant model error. In particular, the DSS algorithms are capable of successfully capturing time-localized extreme events in the unresolved modes, and they provide good and robust skill for recovery of the unresolved processes in terms of pattern correlation. Moreover, we show that DSS improves the skill for recovering the primary modes associated with the sparse observation mesh which is equally important in applications. The skill of the various DSS algorithms depends on the energy spectrum
Information Dynamics of a Nonlinear Stochastic Nanopore System
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Claire Gilpin
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Nanopores have become a subject of interest in the scientific community due to their potential uses in nanometer-scale laboratory and research applications, including infectious disease diagnostics and DNA sequencing. Additionally, they display behavioral similarity to molecular and cellular scale physiological processes. Recent advances in information theory have made it possible to probe the information dynamics of nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems, such as autonomously fluctuating nanopore systems, which has enhanced our understanding of the physical systems they model. We present the results of local (LER and specific entropy rate (SER computations from a simulation study of an autonomously fluctuating nanopore system. We learn that both metrics show increases that correspond to fluctuations in the nanopore current, indicating fundamental changes in information generation surrounding these fluctuations.
Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems
Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.
2018-02-01
Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex
Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system
Gelfan, Alexander
2014-05-01
The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar
The stochastic system approach for estimating dynamic treatments effect.
Commenges, Daniel; Gégout-Petit, Anne
2015-10-01
The problem of assessing the effect of a treatment on a marker in observational studies raises the difficulty that attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. As an example, we focus on the analysis of the effect of a HAART on CD4 counts, where attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. This problem has been treated using marginal structural models relying on the counterfactual/potential response formalism. Another approach to causality is based on dynamical models, and causal influence has been formalized in the framework of the Doob-Meyer decomposition of stochastic processes. Causal inference however needs assumptions that we detail in this paper and we call this approach to causality the "stochastic system" approach. First we treat this problem in discrete time, then in continuous time. This approach allows incorporating biological knowledge naturally. When working in continuous time, the mechanistic approach involves distinguishing the model for the system and the model for the observations. Indeed, biological systems live in continuous time, and mechanisms can be expressed in the form of a system of differential equations, while observations are taken at discrete times. Inference in mechanistic models is challenging, particularly from a numerical point of view, but these models can yield much richer and reliable results.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, Maria
This thesis treats stochastic systems with switching dynamics. Models with these characteristics are studied from several perspectives. Initially in a simple framework given in the form of stochastic differential equations and, later, in an extended form which fits into the framework of sliding...... mode control. It is investigated how to understand and interpret solutions to models of switched systems, which are exposed to discontinuous dynamics and uncertainties (primarily) in the form of white noise. The goal is to gain knowledge about the performance of the system by interpreting the solution...
Stochastic dynamics and irreversibility
Tomé, Tânia
2015-01-01
This textbook presents an exposition of stochastic dynamics and irreversibility. It comprises the principles of probability theory and the stochastic dynamics in continuous spaces, described by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, and in discrete spaces, described by Markov chains and master equations. Special concern is given to the study of irreversibility, both in systems that evolve to equilibrium and in nonequilibrium stationary states. Attention is also given to the study of models displaying phase transitions and critical phenomema both in thermodynamic equilibrium and out of equilibrium. These models include the linear Glauber model, the Glauber-Ising model, lattice models with absorbing states such as the contact process and those used in population dynamic and spreading of epidemic, probabilistic cellular automata, reaction-diffusion processes, random sequential adsorption and dynamic percolation. A stochastic approach to chemical reaction is also presented.The textbook is intended for students of ...
Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.
Ranganathan, Shyam; Nicolis, Stamatios C; Bali Swain, Ranjula; Sumpter, David J T
2017-01-01
The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.
Symplectic Integrators to Stochastic Hamiltonian Dynamical Systems Derived from Composition Methods
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Tetsuya Misawa
2010-01-01
Full Text Available “Symplectic” schemes for stochastic Hamiltonian dynamical systems are formulated through “composition methods (or operator splitting methods” proposed by Misawa (2001. In the proposed methods, a symplectic map, which is given by the solution of a stochastic Hamiltonian system, is approximated by composition of the stochastic flows derived from simpler Hamiltonian vector fields. The global error orders of the numerical schemes derived from the stochastic composition methods are provided. To examine the superiority of the new schemes, some illustrative numerical simulations on the basis of the proposed schemes are carried out for a stochastic harmonic oscillator system.
Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion
Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.
2014-06-01
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shaolin Ji
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is devoted to a stochastic differential game (SDG of decoupled functional forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE. For our SDG, the associated upper and lower value functions of the SDG are defined through the solution of controlled functional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs. Applying the Girsanov transformation method introduced by Buckdahn and Li (2008, the upper and the lower value functions are shown to be deterministic. We also generalize the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs (HJBI equations to the path-dependent ones. By establishing the dynamic programming principal (DPP, we derive that the upper and the lower value functions are the viscosity solutions of the corresponding upper and the lower path-dependent HJBI equations, respectively.
Dynamics of the stochastic Lorenz chaotic system with long memory effects
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zeng, Caibin, E-mail: zeng.cb@mail.scut.edu.cn; Yang, Qigui, E-mail: qgyang@scut.edu.cn [School of Mathematics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)
2015-12-15
Little seems to be known about the ergodic dynamics of stochastic systems with fractional noise. This paper is devoted to discern such long time dynamics through the stochastic Lorenz chaotic system (SLCS) with long memory effects. By a truncation technique, the SLCS is proved to generate a continuous stochastic dynamical system Λ. Based on the Krylov-Bogoliubov criterion, the required Lyapunov function is further established to ensure the existence of the invariant measure of Λ. Meanwhile, the uniqueness of the invariant measure of Λ is proved by examining the strong Feller property, together with an irreducibility argument. Therefore, the SLCS has exactly one adapted stationary solution.
Stochastic ice stream dynamics.
Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca
2016-08-09
Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.
Optically levitated nanoparticle as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics.
Ricci, F; Rica, R A; Spasenović, M; Gieseler, J; Rondin, L; Novotny, L; Quidant, R
2017-05-09
Nano-mechanical resonators have gained an increasing importance in nanotechnology owing to their contributions to both fundamental and applied science. Yet, their small dimensions and mass raises some challenges as their dynamics gets dominated by nonlinearities that degrade their performance, for instance in sensing applications. Here, we report on the precise control of the nonlinear and stochastic bistable dynamics of a levitated nanoparticle in high vacuum. We demonstrate how it can lead to efficient signal amplification schemes, including stochastic resonance. This work contributes to showing the use of levitated nanoparticles as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics, with applications to a wide variety of fields.
Stabilizing simulations of complex stochastic representations for quantum dynamical systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Perret, C; Petersen, W P, E-mail: wpp@math.ethz.ch [Seminar for Applied Mathematics, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)
2011-03-04
Path integral representations of quantum dynamics can often be formulated as stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a series of papers, Corney and Drummond (2004 Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 260401), Deuar and Drummond (2001 Comput. Phys. Commun. 142 442-5), Drummond and Gardnier (1980 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 13 2353-68), Gardiner and Zoller (2004 Quantum Noise: A Handbook of Markovian and Non-Markovian Quantum Stochastic Methods with Applications to Quantum Optics (Springer Series in Synergetics) 3rd edn (Berlin: Springer)) and Gilchrist et al (1997 Phys. Rev. A 55 3014-32) and their collaborators have derived SDEs from coherent states representations for density matrices. Computationally, these SDEs are attractive because they seem simple to simulate. They can be quite unstable, however. In this paper, we consider some of the instabilities and propose a few remedies. Particularly, because the variances of the simulated paths typically grow exponentially, the processes become de-localized in relatively short times. Hence, the issues of boundary conditions and stable integration methods become important. We use the Bose-Einstein Hamiltonian as an example. Our results reveal that it is possible to significantly extend integration times and show the periodic structure of certain functionals.
Quantization of dynamical systems and stochastic control theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guerra, F.; Morato, L.M.
1982-09-01
In the general framework of stochastic control theory we introduce a suitable form of stochastic action associated to the controlled process. Then a variational principle gives all main features of Nelson's stochastic mechanics. In particular we derive the expression of the current velocity field as the gradient of the phase action. Moreover the stochastic corrections to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation are in agreement with the quantum mechanical form of the Madelung fluid (equivalent to the Schroedinger equation). Therefore stochastic control theory can provide a very simple model simulating quantum mechanical behavior
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dongping Wei
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Management of ecological tourism in protected areas faces many challenges, with visitation-related resource degradations and cultural impacts being two of them. To address those issues, several strategies including regulations, site managements, and visitor education programs have been commonly used in China and other countries. This paper presents a multiparameter stochastic differential equation model of an Ecological Tourism System to study how the populations of stakeholders vary in a finite time. The solution of Ordinary Differential Equation of Ecological Tourism System reveals that the system collapses when there is a lack of visitor educational intervention. Hence, the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System is introduced to suppress the explosion of the system. But the simulation results of the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System show that the system is still unstable and chaos in some small time interval. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System is proposed to improve the performance in this paper. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System not only suppresses the explosion of the system in a finite time, but also keeps the populations of stakeholders in an acceptable level. In conclusion, the Ecological Tourism System develops steadily and sustainably when land managers employ effective visitor education intervention programs to deal with recreation impacts.
Dynamics of the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps
Wei, Yongchang; Yang, Qigui
2018-06-01
This paper is devoted to discern long time dynamics through the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps. By Lyapunov technique, this system is proved to have a unique global positive solution, and the asymptotic stability in mean square of such model is further established. Moreover, the existence of random attractor and Lyapunov exponents are obtained for the stochastic homeomorphism flow generated by the corresponding global positive solution. And some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the presented results.
Structure Learning in Stochastic Non-linear Dynamical Systems
Morris, R. D.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.
2005-12-01
A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x˙ = f(x) + ξ(t), where f(x) is the potential function for the system, and ξ(t) is the driving noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications, for example in predator-prey systems, where the very structure of the coupling between predator-prey pairs can have great ecological significance.
Computing the optimal path in stochastic dynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bauver, Martha; Forgoston, Eric; Billings, Lora
2016-01-01
In stochastic systems, one is often interested in finding the optimal path that maximizes the probability of escape from a metastable state or of switching between metastable states. Even for simple systems, it may be impossible to find an analytic form of the optimal path, and in high-dimensional systems, this is almost always the case. In this article, we formulate a constructive methodology that is used to compute the optimal path numerically. The method utilizes finite-time Lyapunov exponents, statistical selection criteria, and a Newton-based iterative minimizing scheme. The method is applied to four examples. The first example is a two-dimensional system that describes a single population with internal noise. This model has an analytical solution for the optimal path. The numerical solution found using our computational method agrees well with the analytical result. The second example is a more complicated four-dimensional system where our numerical method must be used to find the optimal path. The third example, although a seemingly simple two-dimensional system, demonstrates the success of our method in finding the optimal path where other numerical methods are known to fail. In the fourth example, the optimal path lies in six-dimensional space and demonstrates the power of our method in computing paths in higher-dimensional spaces.
Path integral methods for the dynamics of stochastic and disordered systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hertz, John A.; Roudi, Yasser; Sollich, Peter
2017-01-01
We review some of the techniques used to study the dynamics of disordered systems subject to both quenched and fast (thermal) noise. Starting from the Martin–Siggia–Rose/Janssen–De Dominicis–Peliti path integral formalism for a single variable stochastic dynamics, we provide a pedagogical survey...
Numerical simulation of stochastic point kinetic equation in the dynamical system of nuclear reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saha Ray, S.
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► In this paper stochastic neutron point kinetic equations have been analyzed. ► Euler–Maruyama method and Strong Taylor 1.5 order method have been discussed. ► These methods are applied for the solution of stochastic point kinetic equations. ► Comparison between the results of these methods and others are presented in tables. ► Graphs for neutron and precursor sample paths are also presented. -- Abstract: In the present paper, the numerical approximation methods, applied to efficiently calculate the solution for stochastic point kinetic equations () in nuclear reactor dynamics, are investigated. A system of Itô stochastic differential equations has been analyzed to model the neutron density and the delayed neutron precursors in a point nuclear reactor. The resulting system of Itô stochastic differential equations are solved over each time-step size. The methods are verified by considering different initial conditions, experimental data and over constant reactivities. The computational results indicate that the methods are simple and suitable for solving stochastic point kinetic equations. In this article, a numerical investigation is made in order to observe the random oscillations in neutron and precursor population dynamics in subcritical and critical reactors.
Liu, Xiangdong; Li, Qingze; Pan, Jianxin
2018-06-01
Modern medical studies show that chemotherapy can help most cancer patients, especially for those diagnosed early, to stabilize their disease conditions from months to years, which means the population of tumor cells remained nearly unchanged in quite a long time after fighting against immune system and drugs. In order to better understand the dynamics of tumor-immune responses under chemotherapy, deterministic and stochastic differential equation models are constructed to characterize the dynamical change of tumor cells and immune cells in this paper. The basic dynamical properties, such as boundedness, existence and stability of equilibrium points, are investigated in the deterministic model. Extended stochastic models include stochastic differential equations (SDEs) model and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, which accounts for the variability in cellular reproduction, growth and death, interspecific competitions, and immune response to chemotherapy. The CTMC model is harnessed to estimate the extinction probability of tumor cells. Numerical simulations are performed, which confirms the obtained theoretical results.
Dynamical and hamiltonian dilations of stochastic processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baumgartner, B.; Gruemm, H.-R.
1982-01-01
This is a study of the problem, which stochastic processes could arise from dynamical systems by loss of information. The notions of ''dilation'' and ''approximate dilation'' of a stochastic process are introduced to give exact definitions of this particular relationship. It is shown that every generalized stochastic process is approximately dilatable by a sequence of dynamical systems, but for stochastic processes in full generality one needs nets. (Author)
Effects of stochastic time-delayed feedback on a dynamical system modeling a chemical oscillator
González Ochoa, Héctor O.; Perales, Gualberto Solís; Epstein, Irving R.; Femat, Ricardo
2018-05-01
We examine how stochastic time-delayed negative feedback affects the dynamical behavior of a model oscillatory reaction. We apply constant and stochastic time-delayed negative feedbacks to a point Field-Körös-Noyes photosensitive oscillator and compare their effects. Negative feedback is applied in the form of simulated inhibitory electromagnetic radiation with an intensity proportional to the concentration of oxidized light-sensitive catalyst in the oscillator. We first characterize the system under nondelayed inhibitory feedback; then we explore and compare the effects of constant (deterministic) versus stochastic time-delayed feedback. We find that the oscillatory amplitude, frequency, and waveform are essentially preserved when low-dispersion stochastic delayed feedback is used, whereas small but measurable changes appear when a large dispersion is applied.
Analysis of dynamic characteristics of stochastic influences in cognitive systems
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Alexander A. Solodov
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of the study is to provide an analytical description of the dynamics of the processes to form images in the cognitive system and their subsequent processing by the consciousness, as well as the study of the simplest characteristics of the quality of the cognitive system functioning in the form of the signal/noise ratio.In accordance with the ideas of the cognitive theory, it is believed that images (schemes, categories, Gestalt, systems, archetypes, etc. are firstly generated in the human brain and then processed by the consciousness.These images are formed at random in time and are characterized by a random force of effects and subsequently processed by the consciousness.The images are characterized by random numbers, the common interpretation of which is the amount of information corresponding to the appearance of a certain image. The times of appearance are points on the time axis; their number and position are random as well.The work consists of a logically completed model including the following components:• Justification of a statistical model of the appearance of effects during the operation of the cognitive system in the form of the Poisson point process, characterized by the intensity of occurrence of effects and the random values of those effects.• Development of a mathematical model in the consciousness processing of the random effects in the form of reducing response function, which depends on the current time, the time of occurrence of effects and the magnitudes of these effects. To obtain applied results, exponential response function was applied and the analytical results for the mathematical expectations of the processed and not processed information by the consciousness were received.• Introduction for consideration of the signal/noise ratio, characterizing the performance of cognitive systems in the presence of interference and study of its behavior in the situations with the presence of random background noise
Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.
Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young
2017-03-14
Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Guo, Kong-Ming, E-mail: kmguo@xidian.edu.cn [School of Electromechanical Engineering, Xidian University, P.O. Box 187, Xi' an 710071 (China); Jiang, Jun, E-mail: jun.jiang@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)
2014-07-04
To apply stochastic sensitivity function method, which can estimate the probabilistic distribution of stochastic attractors, to non-autonomous dynamical systems, a 1/N-period stroboscopic map for a periodic motion is constructed in order to discretize the continuous cycle into a discrete one. In this way, the sensitivity analysis of a cycle for discrete map can be utilized and a numerical algorithm for the stochastic sensitivity analysis of periodic solutions of non-autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems under stochastic disturbances is devised. An external excited Duffing oscillator and a parametric excited laser system are studied as examples to show the validity of the proposed method. - Highlights: • A method to analyze sensitivity of stochastic periodic attractors in non-autonomous dynamical systems is proposed. • Probabilistic distribution around periodic attractors in an external excited Φ{sup 6} Duffing system is obtained. • Probabilistic distribution around a periodic attractor in a parametric excited laser system is determined.
Darmon, David
2018-03-01
In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.
Optimal Stochastic Control Problem for General Linear Dynamical Systems in Neuroscience
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Yan Chen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper considers a d-dimensional stochastic optimization problem in neuroscience. Suppose the arm’s movement trajectory is modeled by high-order linear stochastic differential dynamic system in d-dimensional space, the optimal trajectory, velocity, and variance are explicitly obtained by using stochastic control method, which allows us to analytically establish exact relationships between various quantities. Moreover, the optimal trajectory is almost a straight line for a reaching movement; the optimal velocity bell-shaped and the optimal variance are consistent with the experimental Fitts law; that is, the longer the time of a reaching movement, the higher the accuracy of arriving at the target position, and the results can be directly applied to designing a reaching movement performed by a robotic arm in a more general environment.
Stochastic dynamics and control
Sun, Jian-Qiao; Zaslavsky, George
2006-01-01
This book is a result of many years of author's research and teaching on random vibration and control. It was used as lecture notes for a graduate course. It provides a systematic review of theory of probability, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. The feedback control is also reviewed in the book. Random vibration analyses of SDOF, MDOF and continuous structural systems are presented in a pedagogical order. The application of the random vibration theory to reliability and fatigue analysis is also discussed. Recent research results on fatigue analysis of non-Gaussian stress proc
Path integral methods for the dynamics of stochastic and disordered systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hertz, John A; Roudi, Yasser; Sollich, Peter
2017-01-01
We review some of the techniques used to study the dynamics of disordered systems subject to both quenched and fast (thermal) noise. Starting from the Martin–Siggia–Rose/Janssen–De Dominicis–Peliti path integral formalism for a single variable stochastic dynamics, we provide a pedagogical survey of the perturbative, i.e. diagrammatic, approach to dynamics and how this formalism can be used for studying soft spin models. We review the supersymmetric formulation of the Langevin dynamics of these models and discuss the physical implications of the supersymmetry. We also describe the key steps involved in studying the disorder-averaged dynamics. Finally, we discuss the path integral approach for the case of hard Ising spins and review some recent developments in the dynamics of such kinetic Ising models. (topical review)
Decentralized Stackelberg Strategies for Interconnected Stochastic Dynamic Systems
1977-10-01
Solutions" IM, Vol.8, No.6, p.413- 430, 1971. (42) Rhodes, I.B., and Luenberger, D.G., "Differential Games with Imperfect State Information", E Trans...34, Proc. Systems E for Power, ERDA Conf. Henniker, New Hampshire, 1975. [47) Starr, A.W., and Ho, Y.C., "Nonzero-Sum Differential Games ", Jt_., [ Vol.3, p...CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE October, 1977 Joint Services Electronics Program ,3. NUMSEROWPAGES 97 14. MONITORiNG &GENCY NAME 1
Geometric integrators for stochastic rigid body dynamics
Tretyakov, Mikhail
2016-01-05
Geometric integrators play an important role in simulating dynamical systems on long time intervals with high accuracy. We will illustrate geometric integration ideas within the stochastic context, mostly on examples of stochastic thermostats for rigid body dynamics. The talk will be mainly based on joint recent work with Rusland Davidchak and Tom Ouldridge.
Geometric integrators for stochastic rigid body dynamics
Tretyakov, Mikhail
2016-01-01
Geometric integrators play an important role in simulating dynamical systems on long time intervals with high accuracy. We will illustrate geometric integration ideas within the stochastic context, mostly on examples of stochastic thermostats for rigid body dynamics. The talk will be mainly based on joint recent work with Rusland Davidchak and Tom Ouldridge.
Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng
2008-01-01
In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies
Dynamic stochastic optimization
Ermoliev, Yuri; Pflug, Georg
2004-01-01
Uncertainties and changes are pervasive characteristics of modern systems involving interactions between humans, economics, nature and technology. These systems are often too complex to allow for precise evaluations and, as a result, the lack of proper management (control) may create significant risks. In order to develop robust strategies we need approaches which explic itly deal with uncertainties, risks and changing conditions. One rather general approach is to characterize (explicitly or implicitly) uncertainties by objec tive or subjective probabilities (measures of confidence or belief). This leads us to stochastic optimization problems which can rarely be solved by using the standard deterministic optimization and optimal control methods. In the stochastic optimization the accent is on problems with a large number of deci sion and random variables, and consequently the focus ofattention is directed to efficient solution procedures rather than to (analytical) closed-form solu tions. Objective an...
The Stochastic Dynamics for Ecological Tourism System with Visitor Educational Intervention
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Dongping Wei
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The ever-increasing visitation in parks and protected areas continues to present a considerable challenge for worldwide land managers with allowing recreational use while preserving natural conditions. In China, the fast expanding visitation in protected areas is quickly damaging the natural resources and precious culture without effective visitor education, while regulation and site management are also gaining very limited efficacy. We propose a differential equation to describe the ecological tourism system. Shown by the theoretical proof and numerical simulation, the ecological tourism system is unstable without any perturbed factors, especially visitor educational intervention, because the solution of the dynamic system explodes in a finite time given any initial value. Supposing that the intrinsic increasing rate of stakeholders in the systems stochastically perturbed by the visitor educational intervention, we discover that the stochastic dynamic model can effectively suppress the explosion of the solution. As such, we demonstrate that the tourism system can develop steadily and safely even under a large amount of visitors in public vacation, when employing continuous visitor education intervention programmes.
Optimal Linear Responses for Markov Chains and Stochastically Perturbed Dynamical Systems
Antown, Fadi; Dragičević, Davor; Froyland, Gary
2018-03-01
The linear response of a dynamical system refers to changes to properties of the system when small external perturbations are applied. We consider the little-studied question of selecting an optimal perturbation so as to (i) maximise the linear response of the equilibrium distribution of the system, (ii) maximise the linear response of the expectation of a specified observable, and (iii) maximise the linear response of the rate of convergence of the system to the equilibrium distribution. We also consider the inhomogeneous, sequential, or time-dependent situation where the governing dynamics is not stationary and one wishes to select a sequence of small perturbations so as to maximise the overall linear response at some terminal time. We develop the theory for finite-state Markov chains, provide explicit solutions for some illustrative examples, and numerically apply our theory to stochastically perturbed dynamical systems, where the Markov chain is replaced by a matrix representation of an approximate annealed transfer operator for the random dynamical system.
Modeling and Properties of Nonlinear Stochastic Dynamical System of Continuous Culture
Wang, Lei; Feng, Enmin; Ye, Jianxiong; Xiu, Zhilong
The stochastic counterpart to the deterministic description of continuous fermentation with ordinary differential equation is investigated in the process of glycerol bio-dissimilation to 1,3-propanediol by Klebsiella pneumoniae. We briefly discuss the continuous fermentation process driven by three-dimensional Brownian motion and Lipschitz coefficients, which is suitable for the factual fermentation. Subsequently, we study the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the stochastic system as well as the boundedness of the Two-order Moment and the Markov property of the solution. Finally stochastic simulation is carried out under the Stochastic Euler-Maruyama method.
Introduction to stochastic dynamic programming
Ross, Sheldon M; Lukacs, E
1983-01-01
Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming presents the basic theory and examines the scope of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. The book begins with a chapter on various finite-stage models, illustrating the wide range of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. Subsequent chapters study infinite-stage models: discounting future returns, minimizing nonnegative costs, maximizing nonnegative returns, and maximizing the long-run average return. Each of these chapters first considers whether an optimal policy need exist-providing counterexamples where appropriate-and the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-01-01
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-06-12
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.
Limit theorems for Markov chains and stochastic properties of dynamical systems by quasi-compactness
Hervé, Loïc
2001-01-01
This book shows how techniques from the perturbation theory of operators, applied to a quasi-compact positive kernel, may be used to obtain limit theorems for Markov chains or to describe stochastic properties of dynamical systems. A general framework for this method is given and then applied to treat several specific cases. An essential element of this work is the description of the peripheral spectra of a quasi-compact Markov kernel and of its Fourier-Laplace perturbations. This is first done in the ergodic but non-mixing case. This work is extended by the second author to the non-ergodic case. The only prerequisites for this book are a knowledge of the basic techniques of probability theory and of notions of elementary functional analysis.
Stochastic dynamics of complex systems: from glasses to evolution (series on complexity science)
Sibani, Paolo
2013-01-01
Dynamical evolution over long time scales is a prominent feature of all the systems we intuitively think of as complex - for example, ecosystems, the brain or the economy. In physics, the term ageing is used for this type of slow change, occurring over time scales much longer than the patience, or indeed the lifetime, of the observer. The main focus of this book is on the stochastic processes which cause ageing, and the surprising fact that the ageing dynamics of systems which are very different at the microscopic level can be treated in similar ways. The first part of this book provides the necessary mathematical and computational tools and the second part describes the intuition needed to deal with these systems. Some of the first few chapters have been covered in several other books, but the emphasis and selection of the topics reflect both the authors' interests and the overall theme of the book. The second part contains an introduction to the scientific literature and deals in some detail with the desc...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin
2014-01-01
We have established a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic formalism consistently applicable to both spatially homogeneous and, more importantly, spatially inhomogeneous systems, governed by the Langevin and Fokker-Planck stochastic dynamics with multiple state transition mechanisms, using the potential-flux landscape framework as a bridge connecting stochastic dynamics with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. A set of non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations, quantifying the relations of the non-equilibrium entropy, entropy flow, entropy production, and other thermodynamic quantities, together with their specific expressions, is constructed from a set of dynamical decomposition equations associated with the potential-flux landscape framework. The flux velocity plays a pivotal role on both the dynamic and thermodynamic levels. On the dynamic level, it represents a dynamic force breaking detailed balance, entailing the dynamical decomposition equations. On the thermodynamic level, it represents a thermodynamic force generating entropy production, manifested in the non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and more specific examples, the spatial stochastic neuronal model, in particular, are studied to test and illustrate the general theory. This theoretical framework is particularly suitable to study the non-equilibrium (thermo)dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous systems abundant in nature. This paper is the second of a series
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yan-Mei, Kang; Yao-Lin, Jiang
2008-01-01
To explore the influence of anomalous diffusion on stochastic resonance (SR) more deeply and effectively, the method of moments is extended to subdiffusive overdamped bistable fractional Fokker-Planck systems for calculating the long-time linear dynamic response. It is found that the method of moments attains high accuracy with the truncation order N = 10, and in normal diffusion such obtained spectral amplification factor (SAF) of the first-order harmonic is also confirmed by stochastic simulation. Observing the SAF of the odd-order harmonics we find some interesting results, i.e. for smaller driving frequency the decrease of sub diffusion exponent inhibits the stochastic resonance (SR), while for larger driving frequency the decrease of sub diffusion exponent enhances the second SR peak, but the first one vanishes and a double SR is induced in the third-order harmonic at the same time. These observations suggest that the anomalous diffusion has important influence on the bistable dynamics
Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems
Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela
2012-01-01
Stochastic reachability analysis (SRA) is a method of analyzing the behavior of control systems which mix discrete and continuous dynamics. For probabilistic discrete systems it has been shown to be a practical verification method but for stochastic hybrid systems it can be rather more. As a verification technique SRA can assess the safety and performance of, for example, autonomous systems, robot and aircraft path planning and multi-agent coordination but it can also be used for the adaptive control of such systems. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems is a self-contained and accessible introduction to this novel topic in the analysis and development of stochastic hybrid systems. Beginning with the relevant aspects of Markov models and introducing stochastic hybrid systems, the book then moves on to coverage of reachability analysis for stochastic hybrid systems. Following this build up, the core of the text first formally defines the concept of reachability in the stochastic framework and then...
Stochastic dynamics of new inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakao, Ken-ichi; Nambu, Yasusada; Sasaki, Misao.
1988-07-01
We investigate thoroughly the dynamics of an inflation-driving scalar field in terms of an extended version of the stochastic approach proposed by Starobinsky and discuss the spacetime structure of the inflationary universe. To avoid any complications which might arise due to quantum gravity, we concentrate our discussions on the new inflationary universe scenario in which all the energy scales involved are well below the planck mass. The investigation is done both analytically and numerically. In particular, we present a full numerical analysis of the stochastic scalar field dynamics on the phase space. Then implications of the results are discussed. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Murtadha Othman
2017-06-01
Full Text Available With the advent of advanced technology in smart grid, the implementation of renewable energy in a stressed and complicated power system operation, aggravated by a competitive electricity market and critical system contingencies, this will inflict higher probabilities of the occurrence of a severe dynamic power system blackout. This paper presents the proposed stochastic event tree technique used to assess the sustainability against the occurrence of dynamic power system blackout emanating from implication of critical system contingencies such as the rapid increase in total loading condition and sensitive initial transmission line tripping. An extensive analysis of dynamic power system blackout has been carried out in a case study of the following power systems: IEEE RTS-79 and IEEE RTS-96. The findings have shown that the total loading conditions and sensitive transmission lines need to be given full attention by the utility to prevent the occurrence of dynamic power system blackout.
Nonlinear Damping Identification in Nonlinear Dynamic System Based on Stochastic Inverse Approach
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S. L. Han
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The nonlinear model is crucial to prepare, supervise, and analyze mechanical system. In this paper, a new nonparametric and output-only identification procedure for nonlinear damping is studied. By introducing the concept of the stochastic state space, we formulate a stochastic inverse problem for a nonlinear damping. The solution of the stochastic inverse problem is designed as probabilistic expression via the hierarchical Bayesian formulation by considering various uncertainties such as the information insufficiency in parameter of interests or errors in measurement. The probability space is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiment and particular application to a realistic problem related to ship roll motion.
Si, Wenjie; Dong, Xunde; Yang, Feifei
2018-03-01
This paper is concerned with the problem of decentralized adaptive backstepping state-feedback control for uncertain high-order large-scale stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems. For the control design of high-order large-scale nonlinear systems, only one adaptive parameter is constructed to overcome the over-parameterization, and neural networks are employed to cope with the difficulties raised by completely unknown system dynamics and stochastic disturbances. And then, the appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the property of hyperbolic tangent functions are used to deal with the unknown unmatched time-delay interactions of high-order large-scale systems for the first time. At last, on the basis of Lyapunov stability theory, the decentralized adaptive neural controller was developed, and it decreases the number of learning parameters. The actual controller can be designed so as to ensure that all the signals in the closed-loop system are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB) and the tracking error converges in the small neighborhood of zero. The simulation example is used to further show the validity of the design method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaczmarczyk, S [School of Applied Sciences, University of Northampton, St. George' s Avenue, Northampton NN2 6JD (United Kingdom); Iwankiewicz, R [Institute of Mechanics and Ocean Engineering, Hamburg University of Technology, Eissendorfer Strasse 42 D-21073, Hamburg (Germany); Terumichi, Y, E-mail: stefan.kaczmarczyk@northampton.ac.u [Faculty of Science and Technology, Sophia University, 7-1 KIOI-CHO, CHIYODAKU, Tokyo, 102-8554 Japan (Japan)
2009-08-01
Moving slender elastic elements such as ropes, cables and belts are pivotal components of vertical transportation systems such as traction elevators. Their lengths vary within the host building structure during the elevator operation which results in the change of the mass and stiffness characteristics of the system. The structure of modern high-rise buildings is flexible and when subjected to loads due to strong winds and earthquakes it vibrates at low frequencies. The inertial load induced by the building motion excites the flexible components of the elevator system. The compensating ropes due to their lower tension are particularly affected and undergo large dynamic deformations. The paper focuses on the presentation of the non-stationary model of a building-compensating rope system and on the analysis to predict its dynamic response. The excitation mechanism is represented by a harmonic process and the results of computer simulations to predict transient resonance response are presented. The analysis of the simulation results leads to recommendations concerning the selection of the weight of the compensation assembly to minimize the effects of an adverse dynamic response of the system. The scenario when the excitation is represented as a narrow-band stochastic process with the state vector governed by stochastic equations is then discussed and the stochastic differential equations governing the second-order statistical moments of the state vector are developed.
Dynamics of a Stochastic Intraguild Predation Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zejing Xing
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Intraguild predation (IGP is a widespread ecological phenomenon which occurs when one predator species attacks another predator species with which it competes for a shared prey species. The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical properties of a stochastic intraguild predation model. We analyze stochastic persistence and extinction of the stochastic IGP model containing five cases and establish the sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of the positive solutions. This study shows that it is possible for the coexistence of three species under the influence of environmental noise, and that the noise may have a positive effect for IGP species. A stationary distribution of the stochastic IGP model is established and it has the ergodic property, suggesting that the time average of population size with the development of time is equal to the stationary distribution in space. Finally, we show that our results may be extended to two well-known biological systems: food chains and exploitative competition.
Sparse learning of stochastic dynamical equations
Boninsegna, Lorenzo; Nüske, Feliks; Clementi, Cecilia
2018-06-01
With the rapid increase of available data for complex systems, there is great interest in the extraction of physically relevant information from massive datasets. Recently, a framework called Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) has been introduced to identify the governing equations of dynamical systems from simulation data. In this study, we extend SINDy to stochastic dynamical systems which are frequently used to model biophysical processes. We prove the asymptotic correctness of stochastic SINDy in the infinite data limit, both in the original and projected variables. We discuss algorithms to solve the sparse regression problem arising from the practical implementation of SINDy and show that cross validation is an essential tool to determine the right level of sparsity. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on two test systems, namely, the diffusion in a one-dimensional potential and the projected dynamics of a two-dimensional diffusion process.
Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming
Ng, Hok K.; Morando, Alex; Grabbe, Shon
2010-01-01
Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa
2016-01-01
The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)
The dynamics of stochastic processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Basse-O'Connor, Andreas
In the present thesis the dynamics of stochastic processes is studied with a special attention to the semimartingale property. This is mainly motivated by the fact that semimartingales provide the class of the processes for which it is possible to define a reasonable stochastic calculus due...... to the Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem. The semimartingale property of Gaussian processes is characterized in terms of their covariance function, spectral measure and spectral representation. In addition, representation and expansion of filtration results are provided as well. Special attention is given to moving...... average processes, and when the driving process is a Lévy or a chaos process the semimartingale property is characterized in the filtration spanned by the driving process and in the natural filtration when the latter is a Brownian motion. To obtain some of the above results an integrability of seminorm...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin Hai; Shuai, J W
2010-01-01
A stochastic spatial model based on the Monte Carlo approach is developed to study the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We aim to propose a more detailed and realistic simulation frame by incorporating many important features of HIV dynamics, which include infections, replications and mutations of viruses, antigen recognitions, activations and proliferations of lymphocytes, and diffusions, encounters and interactions of virions and lymphocytes. Our model successfully reproduces the three-phase pattern observed in HIV infection, and the simulation results for the time distribution from infection to AIDS onset are also in good agreement with the clinical data. The interactions of viruses and the immune system in all the three phases are investigated. We assess the relative importance of various immune system components in the acute phase. The dynamics of how the two important factors, namely the viral diversity and the asymmetric battle between HIV and the immune system, result in AIDS are investigated in detail with the model.
Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.
de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J
2013-01-01
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ertaş, Mehmet; Kantar, Ersin; Keskin, Mustafa
2014-01-01
The dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) and dynamic phase diagrams of the kinetic spin-1/2 bilayer system in the presence of a time-dependent oscillating external magnetic field are studied by using Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the effective-field theory with correlations for the ferromagnetic/ferromagnetic (FM/FM), antiferromagnetic/ferromagnetic (AFM/FM) and antiferromagnetic/antiferromagnetic (AFM/AFM) interactions. The time variations of average magnetizations and the temperature dependence of the dynamic magnetizations are investigated. The dynamic phase diagrams for the amplitude of the oscillating field versus temperature were presented. The results are compared with the results of the same system within Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory. - Highlights: • The Ising bilayer system is investigated within the Glauber dynamics based on EFT. • The time variations of average order parameters to find phases are studied. • The dynamic phase diagrams are found for the different interaction parameters. • The system displays the critical points as well as a re-entrant behavior
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ertaş, Mehmet; Kantar, Ersin, E-mail: ersinkantar@erciyes.edu.tr; Keskin, Mustafa
2014-05-01
The dynamic phase transitions (DPTs) and dynamic phase diagrams of the kinetic spin-1/2 bilayer system in the presence of a time-dependent oscillating external magnetic field are studied by using Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the effective-field theory with correlations for the ferromagnetic/ferromagnetic (FM/FM), antiferromagnetic/ferromagnetic (AFM/FM) and antiferromagnetic/antiferromagnetic (AFM/AFM) interactions. The time variations of average magnetizations and the temperature dependence of the dynamic magnetizations are investigated. The dynamic phase diagrams for the amplitude of the oscillating field versus temperature were presented. The results are compared with the results of the same system within Glauber-type stochastic dynamics based on the mean-field theory. - Highlights: • The Ising bilayer system is investigated within the Glauber dynamics based on EFT. • The time variations of average order parameters to find phases are studied. • The dynamic phase diagrams are found for the different interaction parameters. • The system displays the critical points as well as a re-entrant behavior.
Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Three-Echelon Inventory System of Limited Shelf Life Products
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Galal Noha M.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Coordination of inventory decisions within the supply chain is one of the major determinants of its competitiveness in the global market. Products with limited shelf life impose additional challenges in managing the inventory across the supply chain because of the additional wastage costs incurred in case of being stored beyond product’s useful life. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic programming model for inventory replenishment in a serial multi-echelon distribution supply chain. The model considers uncertain stationary discrete demand at the retailer and zero lead time. The objective is to minimize expected total costs across the supply chain echelons, while maintaining a preset service level. The results illustrate that a cost saving of around 17% is achievable due to coordinating inventory decisions across the supply chain.
Stochastic control theory dynamic programming principle
Nisio, Makiko
2015-01-01
This book offers a systematic introduction to the optimal stochastic control theory via the dynamic programming principle, which is a powerful tool to analyze control problems. First we consider completely observable control problems with finite horizons. Using a time discretization we construct a nonlinear semigroup related to the dynamic programming principle (DPP), whose generator provides the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, and we characterize the value function via the nonlinear semigroup, besides the viscosity solution theory. When we control not only the dynamics of a system but also the terminal time of its evolution, control-stopping problems arise. This problem is treated in the same frameworks, via the nonlinear semigroup. Its results are applicable to the American option price problem. Zero-sum two-player time-homogeneous stochastic differential games and viscosity solutions of the Isaacs equations arising from such games are studied via a nonlinear semigroup related to DPP (the min-ma...
Tong, Shaocheng; Wang, Tong; Li, Yongming; Zhang, Huaguang
2014-06-01
This paper discusses the problem of adaptive neural network output feedback control for a class of stochastic nonlinear strict-feedback systems. The concerned systems have certain characteristics, such as unknown nonlinear uncertainties, unknown dead-zones, unmodeled dynamics and without the direct measurements of state variables. In this paper, the neural networks (NNs) are employed to approximate the unknown nonlinear uncertainties, and then by representing the dead-zone as a time-varying system with a bounded disturbance. An NN state observer is designed to estimate the unmeasured states. Based on both backstepping design technique and a stochastic small-gain theorem, a robust adaptive NN output feedback control scheme is developed. It is proved that all the variables involved in the closed-loop system are input-state-practically stable in probability, and also have robustness to the unmodeled dynamics. Meanwhile, the observer errors and the output of the system can be regulated to a small neighborhood of the origin by selecting appropriate design parameters. Simulation examples are also provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Karimirad, Madjid
2011-03-15
Floating wind turbines can be the most practical and economical way to extract the vast offshore wind energy resources at deep and intermediate water depths. The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is strongly committed to developing offshore wind technology that utilises available renewable energy sources. As the wind is steadier and stronger over the sea than over land, the wind industry recently moved to offshore areas. Analysis of the structural dynamic response of offshore wind turbines subjected to stochastic wave and wind loads is an important aspect of the assessment of their potential for power production and of their structural integrity. Of the concepts that have been proposed for floating wind turbines, spar-types such as the catenary moored spar (CMS) and tension leg spar (TLS) wind turbines seem to be well-suited to the harsh environmental conditions that exist in the North Sea. Hywind and Sway are two examples of such Norwegian concepts; they are based on the CMS and TLS, respectively. Floating wind turbines are sophisticated structures that are subjected to simultaneous wind and wave actions. The coupled nonlinear structural dynamics and motion response equations of these turbines introduce geometrical nonlinearities through the relative motions and velocities. Moreover, the hydrodynamic and aerodynamic loading of this type of structure is nonlinear. A floating wind turbine is a multi body aero-hydro-servo-elastic structural system; for such structures, the coupled nonlinear equations of motion considering nonlinear excitation and damping forces, including all wave- and wind-induced features, should be solved in the time domain. In this thesis, the motion and structural responses for operational and extreme environmental conditions were considered to investigate the performance and the structural integrity of spar-type floating wind turbines. The power production and the effects of aerodynamic and hydrodynamic damping, including wind
Fayolle, G; Fayolle, Guy; Furtlehner, Cyril
2006-01-01
This report is the foreword of a series of stochastic deformations of curves. Problems are set in terms of exclusion processes, the ultimate goal being to derive hydrodynamic limits for these systems after proper scalings. In this study, solely the basic texts system on the torus is analyzed. The usual sequence of empirical measures, converges in probability to a deterministic measure, which is the unique weak solution of a Cauchy problem. The method presents some new features, letting hope for extensions to higher dimension. It relies on the analysis of a family of parabolic differential operators, involving variational calculus. Namely, the variables are the values of functions at given points, their number being possibly infinite.
Reliability-based Dynamic Network Design with Stochastic Networks
Li, H.
2009-01-01
Transportation systems are stochastic and dynamic systems. The road capacities and the travel demand are fluctuating from time to time within a day and at the same time from day to day. For road users, the travel time and travel costs experienced over time and space are stochastic, thus desire
Computational Methods in Stochastic Dynamics Volume 2
Stefanou, George; Papadopoulos, Vissarion
2013-01-01
The considerable influence of inherent uncertainties on structural behavior has led the engineering community to recognize the importance of a stochastic approach to structural problems. Issues related to uncertainty quantification and its influence on the reliability of the computational models are continuously gaining in significance. In particular, the problems of dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of structures with uncertain system and excitation parameters have been the subject of continuous research over the last two decades as a result of the increasing availability of powerful computing resources and technology. This book is a follow up of a previous book with the same subject (ISBN 978-90-481-9986-0) and focuses on advanced computational methods and software tools which can highly assist in tackling complex problems in stochastic dynamic/seismic analysis and design of structures. The selected chapters are authored by some of the most active scholars in their respective areas and...
Stochastic beam dynamics in storage rings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pauluhn, A.
1993-12-01
In this thesis several approaches to stochastic dynamics in storage rings are investigated. In the first part the theory of stochastic differential equations and Fokker-Planck equations is used to describe the processes which have been assumed to be Markov processes. The mathematical theory of Markov processes is well known. Nevertheless, analytical solutions can be found only in special cases and numerical algorithms are required. Several numerical integration schemes for stochastic differential equations will therefore be tested in analytical solvable examples and then applied to examples from accelerator physics. In particular the stochastically perturbed synchrotron motion is treated. For the special case of a double rf system several perturbation theoretical methods for deriving the Fokker-Planck equation in the action variable are used and compared with numerical results. The second part is concerned with the dynamics of electron storage rings. Due to the synchrotron radiation the electron motion is influenced by damping and exciting forces. An algorithm for the computation of the density function in the phase space of such a dissipative stochastically excited system is introduced. The density function contains all information of a process, e.g. it determines the beam dimensions and the lifetime of a stored electron beam. The new algorithm consists in calculating a time propagator for the density function. By means of this propagator the time evolution of the density is modelled very computing time efficient. The method is applied to simple models of the beam-beam interaction (one-dimensional, round beams) and the results of the density calculations are compared with results obtained from multiparticle tracking. Furthermore some modifications of the algorithm are introduced to improve its efficiency concerning computing time and storage requirements. Finally, extensions to two-dimensional beam-beam models are described. (orig.)
Exact solutions to chaotic and stochastic systems
González, J. A.; Reyes, L. I.; Guerrero, L. E.
2001-03-01
We investigate functions that are exact solutions to chaotic dynamical systems. A generalization of these functions can produce truly random numbers. For the first time, we present solutions to random maps. This allows us to check, analytically, some recent results about the complexity of random dynamical systems. We confirm the result that a negative Lyapunov exponent does not imply predictability in random systems. We test the effectiveness of forecasting methods in distinguishing between chaotic and random time series. Using the explicit random functions, we can give explicit analytical formulas for the output signal in some systems with stochastic resonance. We study the influence of chaos on the stochastic resonance. We show, theoretically, the existence of a new type of solitonic stochastic resonance, where the shape of the kink is crucial. Using our models we can predict specific patterns in the output signal of stochastic resonance systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Hacıefendioğlu
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The deconvolution effect of the near-fault earthquake ground motions on the stochastic dynamic response of tunnel-soil deposit interaction systems are investigated by using the finite element method. Two different earthquake input mechanisms are used to consider the deconvolution effects in the analyses: the standard rigid-base input and the deconvolved-base-rock input model. The Bolu tunnel in Turkey is chosen as a numerical example. As near-fault ground motions, 1999 Kocaeli earthquake ground motion is selected. The interface finite elements are used between tunnel and soil deposit. The mean of maximum values of quasi-static, dynamic and total responses obtained from the two input models are compared with each other.
Sumin, V. I.; Smolentseva, T. E.; Belokurov, S. V.; Lankin, O. V.
2018-03-01
In the work the process of formation of trainee characteristics with their subsequent change is analyzed and analyzed. Characteristics of trainees were obtained as a result of testing for each section of information on the chosen discipline. The results obtained during testing were input to the dynamic system. The area of control actions consisting of elements of the dynamic system is formed. The limit of deterministic predictability of element trajectories in dynamical systems based on local or global attractors is revealed. The dimension of the phase space of the dynamic system is determined, which allows estimating the parameters of the initial system. On the basis of time series of observations, it is possible to determine the predictability interval of all parameters, which make it possible to determine the behavior of the system discretely in time. Then the measure of predictability will be the sum of Lyapunov’s positive indicators, which are a quantitative measure for all elements of the system. The components for the formation of an algorithm allowing to determine the correlation dimension of the attractor for known initial experimental values of the variables are revealed. The generated algorithm makes it possible to carry out an experimental study of the dynamics of changes in the trainee’s parameters with initial uncertainty.
Sharma, Pankaj; Jain, Ajai
2014-12-01
Stochastic dynamic job shop scheduling problem with consideration of sequence-dependent setup times are among the most difficult classes of scheduling problems. This paper assesses the performance of nine dispatching rules in such shop from makespan, mean flow time, maximum flow time, mean tardiness, maximum tardiness, number of tardy jobs, total setups and mean setup time performance measures viewpoint. A discrete event simulation model of a stochastic dynamic job shop manufacturing system is developed for investigation purpose. Nine dispatching rules identified from literature are incorporated in the simulation model. The simulation experiments are conducted under due date tightness factor of 3, shop utilization percentage of 90% and setup times less than processing times. Results indicate that shortest setup time (SIMSET) rule provides the best performance for mean flow time and number of tardy jobs measures. The job with similar setup and modified earliest due date (JMEDD) rule provides the best performance for makespan, maximum flow time, mean tardiness, maximum tardiness, total setups and mean setup time measures.
Collisionally induced stochastic dynamics of fast ions in solids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burgdoerfer, J.
1989-01-01
Recent developments in the theory of excited state formation in collisions of fast highly charged ions with solids are reviewed. We discuss a classical transport theory employing Monte-Carlo sampling of solutions of a microscopic Langevin equation. Dynamical screening by the dielectric medium as well as multiple collisions are incorporated through the drift and stochastic forces in the Langevin equation. The close relationship between the extrinsically stochastic dynamics described by the Langevin and the intrinsic stochasticity in chaotic nonlinear dynamical systems is stressed. Comparison with experimental data and possible modification by quantum corrections are discussed. 49 refs., 11 figs
A Dynamical System Exhibits High Signal-to-noise Ratio Gain by Stochastic Resonance
Makra, Peter; Gingl, Zoltan
2003-05-01
On the basis of mixed-signal simulations, we demonstrate that signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) gains much greater than unity can be obtained in the double-well potential through stochastic resonance (SR) with a symmetric periodic pulse train as deterministic and Gaussian white noise as random excitation. We also show that significant SNR improvement is possible in this system even for a sub-threshold sinusoid input if, instead of the commonly used narrow-band SNR, we apply an equally simple but much more realistic wide-band SNR definition. Using the latter result as an argument, we draw attention to the fact that the choice of the measure to reflect signal quality is critical with regard to the extent of signal improvement observed, and urge reconsideration of the practice prevalent in SR studies that most often the narrow-band SNR is used to characterise SR. Finally, we pose some questions concerning the possibilities of applying SNR improvement in practical set-ups.
Nambu mechanics for stochastic magnetization dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thibaudeau, Pascal, E-mail: pascal.thibaudeau@cea.fr [CEA DAM/Le Ripault, BP 16, F-37260 Monts (France); Nussle, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.nussle@cea.fr [CEA DAM/Le Ripault, BP 16, F-37260 Monts (France); CNRS-Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Physique Théorique (UMR 7350), Fédération de Recherche “Denis Poisson” (FR2964), Département de Physique, Université de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, F-37200 Tours (France); Nicolis, Stam, E-mail: stam.nicolis@lmpt.univ-tours.fr [CNRS-Laboratoire de Mathématiques et Physique Théorique (UMR 7350), Fédération de Recherche “Denis Poisson” (FR2964), Département de Physique, Université de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, F-37200 Tours (France)
2017-06-15
Highlights: • The LLG equation can be formulated in the framework of dissipative Nambu mechanics. • A master equation is derived for the spin dynamics for additive/multiplicative noises. • The derived stochastic equations are compared to moment equations obtained by closures. - Abstract: The Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert (LLG) equation describes the dynamics of a damped magnetization vector that can be understood as a generalization of Larmor spin precession. The LLG equation cannot be deduced from the Hamiltonian framework, by introducing a coupling to a usual bath, but requires the introduction of additional constraints. It is shown that these constraints can be formulated elegantly and consistently in the framework of dissipative Nambu mechanics. This has many consequences for both the variational principle and for topological aspects of hidden symmetries that control conserved quantities. We particularly study how the damping terms of dissipative Nambu mechanics affect the consistent interaction of magnetic systems with stochastic reservoirs and derive a master equation for the magnetization. The proposals are supported by numerical studies using symplectic integrators that preserve the topological structure of Nambu equations. These results are compared to computations performed by direct sampling of the stochastic equations and by using closure assumptions for the moment equations, deduced from the master equation.
Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen
2015-01-01
In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems
Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems
Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen
2015-04-01
In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.
Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun [School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn [School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China)
2015-04-15
In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.
Stochastic Dynamics through Hierarchically Embedded Markov Chains.
Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Fernando P; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M
2017-02-03
Studying dynamical phenomena in finite populations often involves Markov processes of significant mathematical and/or computational complexity, which rapidly becomes prohibitive with increasing population size or an increasing number of individual configuration states. Here, we develop a framework that allows us to define a hierarchy of approximations to the stationary distribution of general systems that can be described as discrete Markov processes with time invariant transition probabilities and (possibly) a large number of states. This results in an efficient method for studying social and biological communities in the presence of stochastic effects-such as mutations in evolutionary dynamics and a random exploration of choices in social systems-including situations where the dynamics encompasses the existence of stable polymorphic configurations, thus overcoming the limitations of existing methods. The present formalism is shown to be general in scope, widely applicable, and of relevance to a variety of interdisciplinary problems.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Das, Sonjoy; Goswami, Kundan; Datta, Biswa N.
2014-01-01
Failure of structural systems under dynamic loading can be prevented via active vibration control which shifts the damped natural frequencies of the systems away from the dominant range of loading spectrum. The damped natural frequencies and the dynamic load typically show significant variations in practice. A computationally efficient methodology based on quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment technique and optimization under uncertainty has been formulated in the present work that will rigorously account for these variations and result in an economic and resilient design of structures. A novel scheme based on hierarchical clustering and importance sampling is also developed in this work for accurate and efficient estimation of probability of failure to guarantee the desired resilience level of the designed system. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Das, Sonjoy; Goswami, Kundan [University at Buffalo, NY (United States); Datta, Biswa N. [Northern Illinois University, IL (United States)
2014-12-10
Failure of structural systems under dynamic loading can be prevented via active vibration control which shifts the damped natural frequencies of the systems away from the dominant range of loading spectrum. The damped natural frequencies and the dynamic load typically show significant variations in practice. A computationally efficient methodology based on quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment technique and optimization under uncertainty has been formulated in the present work that will rigorously account for these variations and result in an economic and resilient design of structures. A novel scheme based on hierarchical clustering and importance sampling is also developed in this work for accurate and efficient estimation of probability of failure to guarantee the desired resilience level of the designed system. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Min-Min; Mei Dong-Cheng; Wang Can-Jun
2011-01-01
The effects of the time delay on the upper bound of the time derivative of information entropy are investigated in a time-delayed dynamical system driven by correlated noise. Using the Markov approximation of the stochastic delay differential equations and the Schwartz inequality principle, we obtain an analytical expression for the upper bound U B (t) of the time derivative of the information entropy. The results show that there is a critical value of τ (delay time), and U B (t) presents opposite behaviours on difference sides of the critical value. For the case of the weak additive noise, τ can induce a reentrance transition. Delay time τ also causes a reversal behaviour in U B (t)-λ plot, where λ denotes the degree of the correlation between the two noises. (general)
Simiu, Emil
2002-01-01
The classical Melnikov method provides information on the behavior of deterministic planar systems that may exhibit transitions, i.e. escapes from and captures into preferred regions of phase space. This book develops a unified treatment of deterministic and stochastic systems that extends the applicability of the Melnikov method to physically realizable stochastic planar systems with additive, state-dependent, white, colored, or dichotomous noise. The extended Melnikov method yields the novel result that motions with transitions are chaotic regardless of whether the excitation is deterministic or stochastic. It explains the role in the occurrence of transitions of the characteristics of the system and its deterministic or stochastic excitation, and is a powerful modeling and identification tool. The book is designed primarily for readers interested in applications. The level of preparation required corresponds to the equivalent of a first-year graduate course in applied mathematics. No previous exposure to d...
Stochastic soil water dynamics of phreatophyte vegetation with dimorphic root systems
Vervoort, R.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.
2009-01-01
As the direct uptake of deep groundwater by vegetation may be essential in semiarid regions, we incorporated this process in stochastic root zone water balance models. The direct water uptake by vegetation via deep tap roots is simulated using one additional empirical parameter. This is considered
Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems
Strubbe, S.N.
2005-01-01
In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of coherent structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Kim
1997-01-01
This Thesis deals with nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in systems which can be described by nonlinear Schrödinger models. Basically three different models are investigated. The first is the continuum nonlinear Schröndinger model in one and two dimensions generalized by a tunable degree of nonli......This Thesis deals with nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in systems which can be described by nonlinear Schrödinger models. Basically three different models are investigated. The first is the continuum nonlinear Schröndinger model in one and two dimensions generalized by a tunable degree...... introduces the nonlinear Schrödinger model in one and two dimensions, discussing the soliton solutions in one dimension and the collapse phenomenon in two dimensions. Also various analytical methods are described. Then a derivation of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation is given, based on a Davydov like...... system described by a tight-binding Hamiltonian and a harmonic lattice coupled b y a deformation-type potential. This derivation results in a two-dimensional nonline ar Schrödinger model, and considering the harmonic lattice to be in thermal contact with a heat bath w e show that the nonlinear...
Hybrid Semantics of Stochastic Programs with Dynamic Reconfiguration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto Policriti
2009-10-01
Full Text Available We begin by reviewing a technique to approximate the dynamics of stochastic programs --written in a stochastic process algebra-- by a hybrid system, suitable to capture a mixed discrete/continuous evolution. In a nutshell, the discrete dynamics is kept stochastic while the continuous evolution is given in terms of ODEs, and the overall technique, therefore, naturally associates a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process with a stochastic program. The speciﬁc contribution in this work consists in an increase of the ﬂexibility of the translation scheme, obtained by allowing a dynamic reconﬁguration of the degree of discreteness/continuity of the semantics. We also discuss the relationships of this approach with other hybrid simulation strategies for biochemical systems.
Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems
2016-01-01
Distribution Unlimited Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...ADDRESS. Princeton University PO Box 0036 87 Prospect Avenue - 2nd floor Princeton, NJ 08544 -2020 14-Mar-2014 ABSTRACT Number of Papers published in...peer-reviewed journals: Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems Report Title
Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning
Melchiors, Philipp
2015-01-01
This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.
Wang, Guochao; Wang, Jun
2017-01-01
We make an approach on investigating the fluctuation behaviors of financial volatility duration dynamics. A new concept of volatility two-component range intensity (VTRI) is developed, which constitutes the maximal variation range of volatility intensity and shortest passage time of duration, and can quantify the investment risk in financial markets. In an attempt to study and describe the nonlinear complex properties of VTRI, a random agent-based financial price model is developed by the finite-range interacting biased voter system. The autocorrelation behaviors and the power-law scaling behaviors of return time series and VTRI series are investigated. Then, the complexity of VTRI series of the real markets and the proposed model is analyzed by Fuzzy entropy (FuzzyEn) and Lempel-Ziv complexity. In this process, we apply the cross-Fuzzy entropy (C-FuzzyEn) to study the asynchrony of pairs of VTRI series. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model has the similar complex behaviors with the actual markets and indicate that the proposed stock VTRI series analysis and the financial model are meaningful and feasible to some extent.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mayzelis, Z.A.; Apostolov, S.S.; Melnyk, S.S.; Usatenko, O.V.; Yampol'skii, V.A.
2007-01-01
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mayzelis, Z.A. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Apostolov, S.S. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Melnyk, S.S. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine); Usatenko, O.V. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)]. E-mail: usatenko@ire.kharkov.ua; Yampol' skii, V.A. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)
2007-10-15
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed.
The intrinsic stochasticity of near-integrable Hamiltonian systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Krlin, L [Ceskoslovenska Akademie Ved, Prague (Czechoslovakia). Ustav Fyziky Plazmatu
1989-09-01
Under certain conditions, the dynamics of near-integrable Hamiltonian systems appears to be stochastic. This stochasticity (intrinsic stochasticity, or deterministic chaos) is closely related to the Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM) theorem of the stability of near-integrable multiperiodic Hamiltonian systems. The effect of the intrinsic stochasticity attracts still growing attention both in theory and in various applications in contemporary physics. The paper discusses the relation of the intrinsic stochasticity to the modern ergodic theory and to the KAM theorem, and describes some numerical experiments on related astrophysical and high-temperature plasma problems. Some open questions are mentioned in conclusion. (author).
Functional Abstraction of Stochastic Hybrid Systems
Bujorianu, L.M.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Hermanns, H.
2006-01-01
The verification problem for stochastic hybrid systems is quite difficult. One method to verify these systems is stochastic reachability analysis. Concepts of abstractions for stochastic hybrid systems are needed to ease the stochastic reachability analysis. In this paper, we set up different ways
Stochastic integer programming by dynamic programming
Lageweg, B.J.; Lenstra, J.K.; Rinnooy Kan, A.H.G.; Stougie, L.; Ermoliev, Yu.; Wets, R.J.B.
1988-01-01
Stochastic integer programming is a suitable tool for modeling hierarchical decision situations with combinatorial features. In continuation of our work on the design and analysis of heuristics for such problems, we now try to find optimal solutions. Dynamic programming techniques can be used to
Dynamic Response of Non-Linear Inelsatic Systems to Poisson-Driven Stochastic Excitations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Iwankiewicz, R.
of an equivalent linearization techni que and substituting the non-analytical non-linearity in the original system by the cubic form in the pertinent state variables. The response moments are evaluated for the equivalent systems with the help of a generalized Ito's differential rule. The analytical results...
Stochastic cooling system in COSY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brittner, P.; Hacker, H.U.; Prasuhn, D.; Schug, G.; Singer, H.; Spiess, W.; Stassen, R.
1994-01-01
The stochastic cooler system in COSY is designed for proton kinetic energies between 0.8 and 2.5 GeV. Fabrication of the mechanical parts of the system is going on. Test results of the prototype measurements as well as data of the active RF-compontens are presented. (orig.)
Stochastic cooling system in COSY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brittner, P [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Hacker, H U [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Prasuhn, D [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Schug, G [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Singer, H [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Spiess, W [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany); Stassen, R [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (Germany)
1994-09-01
The stochastic cooler system in COSY is designed for proton kinetic energies between 0.8 and 2.5 GeV. Fabrication of the mechanical parts of the system is going on. Test results of the prototype measurements as well as data of the active RF-compontens are presented. (orig.)
Dynamic stochastic accumulation model with application to pension savings management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melicherčik Igor
2010-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a dynamic stochastic accumulation model for determining optimal decision between stock and bond investments during accumulation of pension savings. Stock prices are assumed to be driven by the geometric Brownian motion. Interest rates are modeled by means of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. The optimal decision as a solution to the corresponding dynamic stochastic program is a function of the duration of saving, the level of savings and the short rate. Qualitative and quantitative properties of the optimal solution are analyzed. The model is tested on the funded pillar of the Slovak pension system. The results are calculated for various risk preferences of a saver.
Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jonsdottir, Harpa
2007-01-01
In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....
Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics
Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William
2012-02-01
Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.
A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach to Revenue Management in a Make-to-Stock Production System
R. Quante (Rainer); M. Fleischmann (Moritz); H. Meyr (Herbert)
2009-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, we consider a make-to-stock production system with known exogenous replenishments and multiple customer classes. The objective is to maximize profit over the planning horizon by deciding whether to accept or reject a given order, in anticipation of more profitable future
A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel Waema Mbogo
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Druce, D. [British Columbia Hydro, Vancouver, BC (Canada)
2004-07-01
BC Hydro's installed generation capacity as of March 31, 2003 was 11,103 MW, of which 90 per cent was hydro power, 9 per cent was gas-fired and 1 per cent was non-integrated. The hydroelectric plants belong to one of three groups, the Peace River, Columbia River or small hydro which includes small to moderate sized-plants. Small hydro is controlled by hydrologic regime and storage limitations rather than by system requirements. The installed capacity for the 4 plants on the Columbia River totals 4,722 MW. The installed capacity at the 2 plants on the Peace River totals 3,424 MW. Both watersheds are subject to interior climate conditions with significant inflows from snowmelt and rainfall runoff. This presentation addressed the issue of mid-term hydro scheduling and its impact on markets. For the past 15 years, BC Hydro has used the marginal cost model for electricity trade and for operations planning. The model considers system loads and resources, and maximizes the expected net revenue over a planning horizon of 6 years. A marginal value of water stored in the Williston Reservoir has been established using the marginal cost model. The affect of weather, natural gas prices and water supply on hydro generation was also discussed. It was noted that information on spot market electricity prices has significantly improved since the electric power industry was deregulated in 1996. tabs., figs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Druce, D.
2004-01-01
BC Hydro's installed generation capacity as of March 31, 2003 was 11,103 MW, of which 90 per cent was hydro power, 9 per cent was gas-fired and 1 per cent was non-integrated. The hydroelectric plants belong to one of three groups, the Peace River, Columbia River or small hydro which includes small to moderate sized-plants. Small hydro is controlled by hydrologic regime and storage limitations rather than by system requirements. The installed capacity for the 4 plants on the Columbia River totals 4,722 MW. The installed capacity at the 2 plants on the Peace River totals 3,424 MW. Both watersheds are subject to interior climate conditions with significant inflows from snowmelt and rainfall runoff. This presentation addressed the issue of mid-term hydro scheduling and its impact on markets. For the past 15 years, BC Hydro has used the marginal cost model for electricity trade and for operations planning. The model considers system loads and resources, and maximizes the expected net revenue over a planning horizon of 6 years. A marginal value of water stored in the Williston Reservoir has been established using the marginal cost model. The affect of weather, natural gas prices and water supply on hydro generation was also discussed. It was noted that information on spot market electricity prices has significantly improved since the electric power industry was deregulated in 1996. tabs., figs
Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models
Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael
2016-01-01
This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.
Stochastic dynamics for reinfection by transmitted diseases
Barros, Alessandro S.; Pinho, Suani T. R.
2017-06-01
The use of stochastic models to study the dynamics of infectious diseases is an important tool to understand the epidemiological process. For several directly transmitted diseases, reinfection is a relevant process, which can be expressed by endogenous reactivation of the pathogen or by exogenous reinfection due to direct contact with an infected individual (with smaller reinfection rate σ β than infection rate β ). In this paper, we examine the stochastic susceptible, infected, recovered, infected (SIRI) model simulating the endogenous reactivation by a spontaneous reaction, while exogenous reinfection by a catalytic reaction. Analyzing the mean-field approximations of a site and pairs of sites, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for the particular case of exogenous reinfection, we obtained continuous phase transitions involving endemic, epidemic, and no transmission phases for the simple approach; the approach of pairs is better to describe the phase transition from endemic phase (susceptible, infected, susceptible (SIS)-like model) to epidemic phase (susceptible, infected, and removed or recovered (SIR)-like model) considering the comparison with MC results; the reinfection increases the peaks of outbreaks until the system reaches endemic phase. For the particular case of endogenous reactivation, the approach of pairs leads to a continuous phase transition from endemic phase (SIS-like model) to no transmission phase. Finally, there is no phase transition when both effects are taken into account. We hope the results of this study can be generalized for the susceptible, exposed, infected, and removed or recovered (SEIRIE) model, for which the state exposed (infected but not infectious), describing more realistically transmitted diseases such as tuberculosis. In future work, we also intend to investigate the effect of network topology on phase transitions when the SIRI model describes both transmitted diseases (σ social contagions (σ >1 ).
Sharp asymptotics for stochastic dynamics with parallel updating rule
Nardi, F.R.; Spitoni, C.
2012-01-01
In this paper we study the metastability problem for a stochastic dynamics with a parallel updating rule; in particular we consider a ¿nite volume Probabilistic Cellular Automaton (PCA) in a small external ¿eld at low temperature regime. We are interested in the nucleation of the system, i.e., the
Sharp asymptotics for stochastic dynamics with parallel updating rule
Nardi, F.R.; Spitoni, C.
2012-01-01
In this paper we study the metastability problem for a stochastic dynamics with a parallel updating rule; in particular we consider a finite volume Probabilistic Cellular Automaton (PCA) in a small external field at low temperature regime. We are interested in the nucleation of the system, i.e., the
Sharp Asymptotics for Stochastic Dynamics with Parallel Updating Rule
Nardi, F.R.; Spitoni, C.
2012-01-01
In this paper we study the metastability problem for a stochastic dynamics with a parallel updating rule; in particular we consider a finite volume Probabilistic Cellular Automaton (PCA) in a small external field at low temperature regime. We are interested in the nucleation of the system, i.e.,
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parsons, Todd L; Rogers, Tim
2017-01-01
Systems composed of large numbers of interacting agents often admit an effective coarse-grained description in terms of a multidimensional stochastic dynamical system, driven by small-amplitude intrinsic noise. In applications to biological, ecological, chemical and social dynamics it is common for these models to posses quantities that are approximately conserved on short timescales, in which case system trajectories are observed to remain close to some lower-dimensional subspace. Here, we derive explicit and general formulae for a reduced-dimension description of such processes that is exact in the limit of small noise and well-separated slow and fast dynamics. The Michaelis–Menten law of enzyme-catalysed reactions, and the link between the Lotka–Volterra and Wright–Fisher processes are explored as a simple worked examples. Extensions of the method are presented for infinite dimensional systems and processes coupled to non-Gaussian noise sources. (paper)
Parsons, Todd L.; Rogers, Tim
2017-10-01
Systems composed of large numbers of interacting agents often admit an effective coarse-grained description in terms of a multidimensional stochastic dynamical system, driven by small-amplitude intrinsic noise. In applications to biological, ecological, chemical and social dynamics it is common for these models to posses quantities that are approximately conserved on short timescales, in which case system trajectories are observed to remain close to some lower-dimensional subspace. Here, we derive explicit and general formulae for a reduced-dimension description of such processes that is exact in the limit of small noise and well-separated slow and fast dynamics. The Michaelis-Menten law of enzyme-catalysed reactions, and the link between the Lotka-Volterra and Wright-Fisher processes are explored as a simple worked examples. Extensions of the method are presented for infinite dimensional systems and processes coupled to non-Gaussian noise sources.
Stochastic dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice-albedo climate feedback
Sudakov, Ivan
Evolution of melt ponds on the Arctic sea surface is a complicated stochastic process. We suggest a low-order model with ice-albedo feedback which describes stochastic dynamics of melt ponds geometrical characteristics. The model is a stochastic dynamical system model of energy balance in the climate system. We describe the equilibria in this model. We conclude the transition in fractal dimension of melt ponds affects the shape of the sea ice albedo curve.
Stochastic Energy Deployment System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
2011-11-30
SEDS is an economy-wide energy model of the U.S. The model captures dynamics between supply, demand, and pricing of the major energy types consumed and produced within the U.S. These dynamics are captured by including: the effects of macroeconomics; the resources and costs of primary energy types such as oil, natural gas, coal, and biomass; the conversion of primary fuels into energy products like petroleum products, electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen; and lastly the end- use consumption attributable to residential and commercial buildings, light and heavy transportation, and industry. Projections from SEDS extend to the year 2050 by one-year time steps and are generally projected at the national level. SEDS differs from other economy-wide energy models in that it explicitly accounts for uncertainty in technology, markets, and policy. SEDS has been specifically developed to avoid the computational burden, and sometimes fruitless labor, that comes from modeling significantly low-level details. Instead, SEDS focuses on the major drivers within the energy economy and evaluates the impact of uncertainty around those drivers.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lodi, C.; Bacher, Peder; Cipriano, J.
2012-01-01
reduce the ventilation thermal losses of the building by pre-heating the fresh air. Furthermore, by decreasing PV module temperature, the ventilation air heat extraction can simultaneously increase electrical and thermal energy production of the building. A correct prediction of the PV module temperature...... and heat transfer coefficients is fundamental in order to improve the thermo-electrical production.The considered grey-box models are composed of a set of continuous time stochastic differential equations, holding the physical description of the system, combined with a set of discrete time measurement......This paper deals with grey-box modelling of the energy transfer of a double skin Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) system. Grey-box models are based on a combination of prior physical knowledge and statistics, which enable identification of the unknown parameters in the system and accurate...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaona Leng
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract This paper proposes a new nonlinear stochastic SIVS epidemic model with double epidemic hypothesis and Lévy jumps. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the threshold dynamics of the stochastic SIVS epidemic model. By using the technique of a series of stochastic inequalities, we obtain sufficient conditions for the persistence in mean and extinction of the stochastic system and the threshold which governs the extinction and the spread of the epidemic diseases. Finally, this paper describes the results of numerical simulations investigating the dynamical effects of stochastic disturbance. Our results significantly improve and generalize the corresponding results in recent literatures. The developed theoretical methods and stochastic inequalities technique can be used to investigate the high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic differential systems.
System Entropy Measurement of Stochastic Partial Differential Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bor-Sen Chen
2016-03-01
Full Text Available System entropy describes the dispersal of a system’s energy and is an indication of the disorder of a physical system. Several system entropy measurement methods have been developed for dynamic systems. However, most real physical systems are always modeled using stochastic partial differential dynamic equations in the spatio-temporal domain. No efficient method currently exists that can calculate the system entropy of stochastic partial differential systems (SPDSs in consideration of the effects of intrinsic random fluctuation and compartment diffusion. In this study, a novel indirect measurement method is proposed for calculating of system entropy of SPDSs using a Hamilton–Jacobi integral inequality (HJII-constrained optimization method. In other words, we solve a nonlinear HJII-constrained optimization problem for measuring the system entropy of nonlinear stochastic partial differential systems (NSPDSs. To simplify the system entropy measurement of NSPDSs, the global linearization technique and finite difference scheme were employed to approximate the nonlinear stochastic spatial state space system. This allows the nonlinear HJII-constrained optimization problem for the system entropy measurement to be transformed to an equivalent linear matrix inequalities (LMIs-constrained optimization problem, which can be easily solved using the MATLAB LMI-toolbox (MATLAB R2014a, version 8.3. Finally, several examples are presented to illustrate the system entropy measurement of SPDSs.
On an aggregation in birth-and-death stochastic dynamics
Finkelshtein, Dmitri; Kondratiev, Yuri; Kutoviy, Oleksandr; Zhizhina, Elena
2014-06-01
We consider birth-and-death stochastic dynamics of particle systems with attractive interaction. The heuristic generator of the dynamics has a constant birth rate and density-dependent decreasing death rate. The corresponding statistical dynamics is constructed. Using the Vlasov-type scaling we derive the limiting mesoscopic evolution and prove that this evolution propagates chaos. We study a nonlinear non-local kinetic equation for the first correlation function (density of population). The existence of uniformly bounded solutions as well as solutions growing inside of a bounded domain and expanding in the space are shown. These solutions describe two regimes in the mesoscopic system: regulation and aggregation.
On an aggregation in birth-and-death stochastic dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Finkelshtein, Dmitri; Kondratiev, Yuri; Kutoviy, Oleksandr; Zhizhina, Elena
2014-01-01
We consider birth-and-death stochastic dynamics of particle systems with attractive interaction. The heuristic generator of the dynamics has a constant birth rate and density-dependent decreasing death rate. The corresponding statistical dynamics is constructed. Using the Vlasov-type scaling we derive the limiting mesoscopic evolution and prove that this evolution propagates chaos. We study a nonlinear non-local kinetic equation for the first correlation function (density of population). The existence of uniformly bounded solutions as well as solutions growing inside of a bounded domain and expanding in the space are shown. These solutions describe two regimes in the mesoscopic system: regulation and aggregation. (paper)
Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming with Stochastic Search
Aziz, Jonathan; Parker, Jeffrey; Englander, Jacob
2016-01-01
Differential dynamic programming (DDP) has been demonstrated as a viable approach to low-thrust trajectory optimization, namely with the recent success of NASAs Dawn mission. The Dawn trajectory was designed with the DDP-based Static Dynamic Optimal Control algorithm used in the Mystic software. Another recently developed method, Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming (HDDP) is a variant of the standard DDP formulation that leverages both first-order and second-order state transition matrices in addition to nonlinear programming (NLP) techniques. Areas of improvement over standard DDP include constraint handling, convergence properties, continuous dynamics, and multi-phase capability. DDP is a gradient based method and will converge to a solution nearby an initial guess. In this study, monotonic basin hopping (MBH) is employed as a stochastic search method to overcome this limitation, by augmenting the HDDP algorithm for a wider search of the solution space.
Computational singular perturbation analysis of stochastic chemical systems with stiffness
Wang, Lijin; Han, Xiaoying; Cao, Yanzhao; Najm, Habib N.
2017-04-01
Computational singular perturbation (CSP) is a useful method for analysis, reduction, and time integration of stiff ordinary differential equation systems. It has found dominant utility, in particular, in chemical reaction systems with a large range of time scales at continuum and deterministic level. On the other hand, CSP is not directly applicable to chemical reaction systems at micro or meso-scale, where stochasticity plays an non-negligible role and thus has to be taken into account. In this work we develop a novel stochastic computational singular perturbation (SCSP) analysis and time integration framework, and associated algorithm, that can be used to not only construct accurately and efficiently the numerical solutions to stiff stochastic chemical reaction systems, but also analyze the dynamics of the reduced stochastic reaction systems. The algorithm is illustrated by an application to a benchmark stochastic differential equation model, and numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the construction.
Nonperturbative stochastic dynamics driven by strongly correlated colored noise
Jing, Jun; Li, Rui; You, J. Q.; Yu, Ting
2015-02-01
We propose a quantum model consisting of two remote qubits interacting with two correlated colored noises and establish an exact stochastic Schrödinger equation for this open quantum system. It is shown that the quantum dynamics of the qubit system is profoundly modulated by the mutual correlation between baths and the bath memory capability through dissipation and fluctuation. We report a physical effect on generating inner correlation and entanglement of two distant qubits arising from the strong bath-bath correlation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sadeghi, Mahmood; Kalantar, Mohsen
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Defining a DG dynamic planning problem. • Applying a new evolutionary algorithm called “CMAES” in planning process. • Considering electricity price and fuel price variation stochastic conditions. • Scenario generation and reduction with MCS and backward reduction programs. • Considering approximately all of the costs of the distribution system. - Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic DG planning problem considering uncertainties related to the intermittent nature of the DG technologies such as wind turbines and solar units in addition to the stochastic economic conditions. The stochastic economic situation includes the uncertainties related to the fuel and electricity price of each year. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible scenarios of uncertain situations and the produced scenarios are reduced through backward reduction program. The aim of this paper is to maximize the revenue of the distribution system through the benefit cost analysis alongside the encouraging and punishment functions. In order to close to reality, the different growth rates for the planning period are selected. In this paper the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolutionary Strategy is introduced and is used to find the best planning scheme of the DG units. The different DG types are considered in the planning problem. The main assumption of this paper is that the DISCO is the owner of the distribution system and the DG units. The proposed method is tested on a 9 bus test distribution system and the results are compared with the known genetic algorithm and PSO methods to show the applicability of the CMAES method in this problem
Stochastic Dynamics Underlying Cognitive Stability and Flexibility.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kai Ueltzhöffer
2015-06-01
updating and dopaminergic modulation of cognitive flexibility. These results show that stochastic dynamical systems can implement the basic computations underlying cognitive stability and flexibility and explain neurobiological bases of individual differences.
Stochastic Relational Presheaves and Dynamic Logic for Contextuality
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kohei Kishida
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Presheaf models provide a formulation of labelled transition systems that is useful for, among other things, modelling concurrent computation. This paper aims to extend such models further to represent stochastic dynamics such as shown in quantum systems. After reviewing what presheaf models represent and what certain operations on them mean in terms of notions such as internal and external choices, composition of systems, and so on, I will show how to extend those models and ideas by combining them with ideas from other category-theoretic approaches to relational models and to stochastic processes. It turns out that my extension yields a transitional formulation of sheaf-theoretic structures that Abramsky and Brandenburger proposed to characterize non-locality and contextuality. An alternative characterization of contextuality will then be given in terms of a dynamic modal logic of the models I put forward.
Stochastic analysis of biochemical systems
Anderson, David F
2015-01-01
This book focuses on counting processes and continuous-time Markov chains motivated by examples and applications drawn from chemical networks in systems biology. The book should serve well as a supplement for courses in probability and stochastic processes. While the material is presented in a manner most suitable for students who have studied stochastic processes up to and including martingales in continuous time, much of the necessary background material is summarized in the Appendix. Students and Researchers with a solid understanding of calculus, differential equations, and elementary probability and who are well-motivated by the applications will find this book of interest. David F. Anderson is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Wisconsin and Thomas G. Kurtz is Emeritus Professor in the Departments of Mathematics and Statistics at that university. Their research is focused on probability and stochastic processes with applications in biology and other ar...
A data driven nonlinear stochastic model for blood glucose dynamics.
Zhang, Yan; Holt, Tim A; Khovanova, Natalia
2016-03-01
The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose-insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose-insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some postprandial blood glucose excursions can be described by a reduced (linear) model, previously seen in the literature. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates that deterministic system parameters belong to different ranges for diabetes and controls. Implications for clinical practice are discussed. This is the first study introducing a continuous data-driven nonlinear stochastic model capable of describing both DM and non-DM profiles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Convergence of Sample Path Optimal Policies for Stochastic Dynamic Programming
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Fu, Michael C; Jin, Xing
2005-01-01
.... These results have practical implications for Monte Carlo simulation-based solution approaches to stochastic dynamic programming problems where it is impractical to extract the explicit transition...
Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik
the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....
Moix, Jeremy M.; Cao, Jianshu
2013-10-01
The hierarchical equations of motion technique has found widespread success as a tool to generate the numerically exact dynamics of non-Markovian open quantum systems. However, its application to low temperature environments remains a serious challenge due to the need for a deep hierarchy that arises from the Matsubara expansion of the bath correlation function. Here we present a hybrid stochastic hierarchical equation of motion (sHEOM) approach that alleviates this bottleneck and leads to a numerical cost that is nearly independent of temperature. Additionally, the sHEOM method generally converges with fewer hierarchy tiers allowing for the treatment of larger systems. Benchmark calculations are presented on the dynamics of two level systems at both high and low temperatures to demonstrate the efficacy of the approach. Then the hybrid method is used to generate the exact dynamics of systems that are nearly impossible to treat by the standard hierarchy. First, exact energy transfer rates are calculated across a broad range of temperatures revealing the deviations from the Förster rates. This is followed by computations of the entanglement dynamics in a system of two qubits at low temperature spanning the weak to strong system-bath coupling regimes.
Effects of stochastic noise on dynamical decoupling procedures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bernad, Jozsef Zsolt; Frydrych, Holger; Alber, Gernot [Institut fuer Angewandte Physik, Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, D-64289 Darmstadt (Germany)
2013-07-01
Dynamical decoupling is a well-established technique to protect quantum systems from unwanted influences of their environment by exercising active control. It has been used experimentally to drastically increase the lifetime of qubit states in various implementations. The efficiency of different dynamical decoupling schemes defines the lifetime. However, errors in control operations always limit this efficiency. We propose a stochastic model as a possible description of imperfect control pulses and discuss the impact of this kind of error on different decoupling schemes. In the limit of continuous control, i.e. if the number of pulses N → ∞, we derive a stochastic differential equation for the evolution of the density operator of the controlled system and its environment. In the context of this modified time evolution we discuss possibilities of protecting qubit states against environmental noise.
Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games
Jaleel, Hassan; Shamma, Jeff S.
2018-01-01
dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through
Measures of thermodynamic irreversibility in deterministic and stochastic dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ford, Ian J
2015-01-01
It is generally observed that if a dynamical system is sufficiently complex, then as time progresses it will share out energy and other properties amongst its component parts to eliminate any initial imbalances, retaining only fluctuations. This is known as energy dissipation and it is closely associated with the concept of thermodynamic irreversibility, measured by the increase in entropy according to the second law. It is of interest to quantify such behaviour from a dynamical rather than a thermodynamic perspective and to this end stochastic entropy production and the time-integrated dissipation function have been introduced as analogous measures of irreversibility, principally for stochastic and deterministic dynamics, respectively. We seek to compare these measures. First we modify the dissipation function to allow it to measure irreversibility in situations where the initial probability density function (pdf) of the system is asymmetric as well as symmetric in velocity. We propose that it tests for failure of what we call the obversibility of the system, to be contrasted with reversibility, the failure of which is assessed by stochastic entropy production. We note that the essential difference between stochastic entropy production and the time-integrated modified dissipation function lies in the sequence of procedures undertaken in the associated tests of irreversibility. We argue that an assumed symmetry of the initial pdf with respect to velocity inversion (within a framework of deterministic dynamics) can be incompatible with the Past Hypothesis, according to which there should be a statistical distinction between the behaviour of certain properties of an isolated system as it evolves into the far future and the remote past. Imposing symmetry on a velocity distribution is acceptable for many applications of statistical physics, but can introduce difficulties when discussing irreversible behaviour. (paper)
Stochasticity and transport in Hamiltonian systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
MacKay, R.S.; Meiss, J.D.; Percival, I.C.
1983-08-01
The theory of transport in nonlinear dynamics is developed in terms of leaky barriers which remain when invariant tori are destroyed. We describe the organization of stochastic motion by these barriers and give an explanation of long-time correlations in the stochastic regime
Chiavico, Mattia; Raso, Luciano; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier
2015-04-01
Seine river region is an extremely important logistic and economic junction for France and Europe. The hydraulic protection of most part of the region relies on four controlled reservoirs, managed by EPTB Seine-Grands Lacs. Presently, reservoirs operation is not centrally coordinated, and release rules are based on empirical filling curves. In this study, we analyze how a centralized release policy can face flood and drought risks, optimizing water system efficiency. The optimal and centralized decisional problem is solved by Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method, minimizing an operational indicator for each planning objective. SDDP allows us to include into the system: 1) the hydrological discharge, specifically a stochastic semi-distributed auto-regressive model, 2) the hydraulic transfer model, represented by a linear lag and route model, and 3) reservoirs and diversions. The novelty of this study lies on the combination of reservoir and hydraulic models in SDDP for flood and drought protection problems. The study case covers the Seine basin until the confluence with Aube River: this system includes two reservoirs, the city of Troyes, and the Nuclear power plant of Nogent-Sur-Seine. The conflict between the interests of flood protection, drought protection, water use and ecology leads to analyze the environmental system in a Multi-Objective perspective.
Diaz-Ruelas, Alvaro; Jeldtoft Jensen, Henrik; Piovani, Duccio; Robledo, Alberto
2016-12-01
It is well known that low-dimensional nonlinear deterministic maps close to a tangent bifurcation exhibit intermittency and this circumstance has been exploited, e.g., by Procaccia and Schuster [Phys. Rev. A 28, 1210 (1983)], to develop a general theory of 1/f spectra. This suggests it is interesting to study the extent to which the behavior of a high-dimensional stochastic system can be described by such tangent maps. The Tangled Nature (TaNa) Model of evolutionary ecology is an ideal candidate for such a study, a significant model as it is capable of reproducing a broad range of the phenomenology of macroevolution and ecosystems. The TaNa model exhibits strong intermittency reminiscent of punctuated equilibrium and, like the fossil record of mass extinction, the intermittency in the model is found to be non-stationary, a feature typical of many complex systems. We derive a mean-field version for the evolution of the likelihood function controlling the reproduction of species and find a local map close to tangency. This mean-field map, by our own local approximation, is able to describe qualitatively only one episode of the intermittent dynamics of the full TaNa model. To complement this result, we construct a complete nonlinear dynamical system model consisting of successive tangent bifurcations that generates time evolution patterns resembling those of the full TaNa model in macroscopic scales. The switch from one tangent bifurcation to the next in the sequences produced in this model is stochastic in nature, based on criteria obtained from the local mean-field approximation, and capable of imitating the changing set of types of species and total population in the TaNa model. The model combines full deterministic dynamics with instantaneous parameter random jumps at stochastically drawn times. In spite of the limitations of our approach, which entails a drastic collapse of degrees of freedom, the description of a high-dimensional model system in terms of a low
Nonlinear and Stochastic Dynamics in the Heart
Qu, Zhilin; Hu, Gang; Garfinkel, Alan; Weiss, James N.
2014-01-01
In a normal human life span, the heart beats about 2 to 3 billion times. Under diseased conditions, a heart may lose its normal rhythm and degenerate suddenly into much faster and irregular rhythms, called arrhythmias, which may lead to sudden death. The transition from a normal rhythm to an arrhythmia is a transition from regular electrical wave conduction to irregular or turbulent wave conduction in the heart, and thus this medical problem is also a problem of physics and mathematics. In the last century, clinical, experimental, and theoretical studies have shown that dynamical theories play fundamental roles in understanding the mechanisms of the genesis of the normal heart rhythm as well as lethal arrhythmias. In this article, we summarize in detail the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics occurring in the heart and their links to normal cardiac functions and arrhythmias, providing a holistic view through integrating dynamics from the molecular (microscopic) scale, to the organelle (mesoscopic) scale, to the cellular, tissue, and organ (macroscopic) scales. We discuss what existing problems and challenges are waiting to be solved and how multi-scale mathematical modeling and nonlinear dynamics may be helpful for solving these problems. PMID:25267872
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in the heart
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qu, Zhilin, E-mail: zqu@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Hu, Gang [Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Garfinkel, Alan [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Department of Integrative Biology and Physiology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Weiss, James N. [Department of Medicine (Cardiology), David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Department of Physiology, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)
2014-10-10
In a normal human life span, the heart beats about 2–3 billion times. Under diseased conditions, a heart may lose its normal rhythm and degenerate suddenly into much faster and irregular rhythms, called arrhythmias, which may lead to sudden death. The transition from a normal rhythm to an arrhythmia is a transition from regular electrical wave conduction to irregular or turbulent wave conduction in the heart, and thus this medical problem is also a problem of physics and mathematics. In the last century, clinical, experimental, and theoretical studies have shown that dynamical theories play fundamental roles in understanding the mechanisms of the genesis of the normal heart rhythm as well as lethal arrhythmias. In this article, we summarize in detail the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics occurring in the heart and their links to normal cardiac functions and arrhythmias, providing a holistic view through integrating dynamics from the molecular (microscopic) scale, to the organelle (mesoscopic) scale, to the cellular, tissue, and organ (macroscopic) scales. We discuss what existing problems and challenges are waiting to be solved and how multi-scale mathematical modeling and nonlinear dynamics may be helpful for solving these problems.
Nonlinear and stochastic dynamics in the heart
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qu, Zhilin; Hu, Gang; Garfinkel, Alan; Weiss, James N.
2014-01-01
In a normal human life span, the heart beats about 2–3 billion times. Under diseased conditions, a heart may lose its normal rhythm and degenerate suddenly into much faster and irregular rhythms, called arrhythmias, which may lead to sudden death. The transition from a normal rhythm to an arrhythmia is a transition from regular electrical wave conduction to irregular or turbulent wave conduction in the heart, and thus this medical problem is also a problem of physics and mathematics. In the last century, clinical, experimental, and theoretical studies have shown that dynamical theories play fundamental roles in understanding the mechanisms of the genesis of the normal heart rhythm as well as lethal arrhythmias. In this article, we summarize in detail the nonlinear and stochastic dynamics occurring in the heart and their links to normal cardiac functions and arrhythmias, providing a holistic view through integrating dynamics from the molecular (microscopic) scale, to the organelle (mesoscopic) scale, to the cellular, tissue, and organ (macroscopic) scales. We discuss what existing problems and challenges are waiting to be solved and how multi-scale mathematical modeling and nonlinear dynamics may be helpful for solving these problems
Emerging of Stochastic Dynamical Equalities and Steady State Thermodynamics from Darwinian Dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ao, P.
2008-01-01
The evolutionary dynamics first conceived by Darwin and Wallace, referring to as Darwinian dynamics in the present paper, has been found to be universally valid in biology. The statistical mechanics and thermodynamics, while enormous successful in physics, have been in an awkward situation of wanting a consistent dynamical understanding. Here we present from a formal point of view an exploration of the connection between thermodynamics and Darwinian dynamics and a few related topics. We first show that the stochasticity in Darwinian dynamics implies the existence temperature, hence the canonical distribution of Boltzmann-Gibbs type. In term of relative entropy the Second Law of thermodynamics is dynamically demonstrated without detailed balance condition, and is valid regardless of size of the system. In particular, the dynamical component responsible for breaking detailed balance condition does not contribute to the change of the relative entropy. Two types of stochastic dynamical equalities of current interest are explicitly discussed in the present approach: One is based on Feynman-Kac formula and another is a generalization of Einstein relation. Both are directly accessible to experimental tests. Our demonstration indicates that Darwinian dynamics represents logically a simple and straightforward starting point for statistical mechanics and thermodynamics and is complementary to and consistent with conservative dynamics that dominates the physical sciences. Present exploration suggests the existence of a unified stochastic dynamical framework both near and far from equilibrium
Noise-sustained fluctuations in stochastic dynamics with a delay.
D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca
2012-04-01
Delayed responses to external drivers are ubiquitous in environmental, social, and biological processes. Delays may induce oscillations, Hopf bifurcations, and instabilities in deterministic systems even in the absence of nonlinearities. Despite recent advances in the study of delayed stochastic differential equations, the interaction of random drivers with delays remains poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear whether noise-induced behaviors may emerge from these interactions. Here we show that noise may enhance and sustain transient periodic oscillations inherent to deterministic delayed systems. We investigate the conditions conducive to the emergence and disappearance of these dynamics in a linear system in the presence of both additive and multiplicative noise.
Wang, Jun-Sheng; Yang, Guang-Hong
2017-07-25
This paper studies the optimal output-feedback control problem for unknown linear discrete-time systems with stochastic measurement and process noise. A dithered Bellman equation with the innovation covariance matrix is constructed via the expectation operator given in the form of a finite summation. On this basis, an output-feedback-based approximate dynamic programming method is developed, where the terms depending on the innovation covariance matrix are available with the aid of the innovation covariance matrix identified beforehand. Therefore, by iterating the Bellman equation, the resulting value function can converge to the optimal one in the presence of the aforementioned noise, and the nearly optimal control laws are delivered. To show the effectiveness and the advantages of the proposed approach, a simulation example and a velocity control experiment on a dc machine are employed.
Dynamic analysis of stochastic transcription cycles.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claire V Harper
2011-04-01
Full Text Available In individual mammalian cells the expression of some genes such as prolactin is highly variable over time and has been suggested to occur in stochastic pulses. To investigate the origins of this behavior and to understand its functional relevance, we quantitatively analyzed this variability using new mathematical tools that allowed us to reconstruct dynamic transcription rates of different reporter genes controlled by identical promoters in the same living cell. Quantitative microscopic analysis of two reporter genes, firefly luciferase and destabilized EGFP, was used to analyze the dynamics of prolactin promoter-directed gene expression in living individual clonal and primary pituitary cells over periods of up to 25 h. We quantified the time-dependence and cyclicity of the transcription pulses and estimated the length and variation of active and inactive transcription phases. We showed an average cycle period of approximately 11 h and demonstrated that while the measured time distribution of active phases agreed with commonly accepted models of transcription, the inactive phases were differently distributed and showed strong memory, with a refractory period of transcriptional inactivation close to 3 h. Cycles in transcription occurred at two distinct prolactin-promoter controlled reporter genes in the same individual clonal or primary cells. However, the timing of the cycles was independent and out-of-phase. For the first time, we have analyzed transcription dynamics from two equivalent loci in real-time in single cells. In unstimulated conditions, cells showed independent transcription dynamics at each locus. A key result from these analyses was the evidence for a minimum refractory period in the inactive-phase of transcription. The response to acute signals and the result of manipulation of histone acetylation was consistent with the hypothesis that this refractory period corresponded to a phase of chromatin remodeling which significantly
Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games
Jaleel, Hassan
2018-04-08
Stochastic stability is a popular solution concept for stochastic learning dynamics in games. However, a critical limitation of this solution concept is its inability to distinguish between different learning rules that lead to the same steady-state behavior. We address this limitation for the first time and develop a framework for the comparative analysis of stochastic learning dynamics with different update rules but same steady-state behavior. We present the framework in the context of two learning dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through an example setup of sensor coverage game that for each of these dynamics, the paths to stochastically stable states exhibit distinctive behaviors. Therefore, we propose multiple criteria to analyze and quantify the differences in the short and medium run behavior of stochastic learning dynamics. We derive and compare upper bounds on the expected hitting time to the set of Nash equilibria for both LLL and ML. For the medium to long-run behavior, we identify a set of tools from the theory of perturbed Markov chains that result in a hierarchical decomposition of the state space into collections of states called cycles. We compare LLL and ML based on the proposed criteria and develop invaluable insights into the comparative behavior of the two dynamics.
Baudracco, J; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Holmes, C W; Comeron, E A; Macdonald, K A; Barry, T N
2013-05-01
A whole-farm, stochastic and dynamic simulation model was developed to predict biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems. Several whole-farm models simulate grazing dairy systems, but most of them work at a herd level. This model, named e-Dairy, differs from the few models that work at an animal level, because it allows stochastic behaviour of the genetic merit of individual cows for several traits, namely, yields of milk, fat and protein, live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS) within a whole-farm model. This model accounts for genetic differences between cows, is sensitive to genotype × environment interactions at an animal level and allows pasture growth, milk and supplements price to behave stochastically. The model includes an energy-based animal module that predicts intake at grazing, mammary gland functioning and body lipid change. This whole-farm model simulates a 365-day period for individual cows within a herd, with cow parameters randomly generated on the basis of the mean parameter values, defined as input and variance and co-variances from experimental data sets. The main inputs of e-Dairy are farm area, use of land, type of pasture, type of crops, monthly pasture growth rate, supplements offered, nutritional quality of feeds, herd description including herd size, age structure, calving pattern, BCS and LW at calving, probabilities of pregnancy, average genetic merit and economic values for items of income and costs. The model allows to set management policies to define: dry-off cows (ceasing of lactation), target pre- and post-grazing herbage mass and feed supplementation. The main outputs are herbage dry matter intake, annual pasture utilisation, milk yield, changes in BCS and LW, economic farm profit and return on assets. The model showed satisfactory accuracy of prediction when validated against two data sets from farmlet system experiments. Relative prediction errors were <10% for all variables, and concordance
Extended Plefka expansion for stochastic dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bravi, B; Sollich, P; Opper, M
2016-01-01
We propose an extension of the Plefka expansion, which is well known for the dynamics of discrete spins, to stochastic differential equations with continuous degrees of freedom and exhibiting generic nonlinearities. The scenario is sufficiently general to allow application to e.g. biochemical networks involved in metabolism and regulation. The main feature of our approach is to constrain in the Plefka expansion not just first moments akin to magnetizations, but also second moments, specifically two-time correlations and responses for each degree of freedom. The end result is an effective equation of motion for each single degree of freedom, where couplings to other variables appear as a self-coupling to the past (i.e. memory term) and a coloured noise. This constitutes a new mean field approximation that should become exact in the thermodynamic limit of a large network, for suitably long-ranged couplings. For the analytically tractable case of linear dynamics we establish this exactness explicitly by appeal to spectral methods of random matrix theory, for Gaussian couplings with arbitrary degree of symmetry. (paper)
Extended Plefka expansion for stochastic dynamics
Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.; Opper, M.
2016-05-01
We propose an extension of the Plefka expansion, which is well known for the dynamics of discrete spins, to stochastic differential equations with continuous degrees of freedom and exhibiting generic nonlinearities. The scenario is sufficiently general to allow application to e.g. biochemical networks involved in metabolism and regulation. The main feature of our approach is to constrain in the Plefka expansion not just first moments akin to magnetizations, but also second moments, specifically two-time correlations and responses for each degree of freedom. The end result is an effective equation of motion for each single degree of freedom, where couplings to other variables appear as a self-coupling to the past (i.e. memory term) and a coloured noise. This constitutes a new mean field approximation that should become exact in the thermodynamic limit of a large network, for suitably long-ranged couplings. For the analytically tractable case of linear dynamics we establish this exactness explicitly by appeal to spectral methods of random matrix theory, for Gaussian couplings with arbitrary degree of symmetry.
Parallel Stochastic discrete event simulation of calcium dynamics in neuron.
Ishlam Patoary, Mohammad Nazrul; Tropper, Carl; McDougal, Robert A; Zhongwei, Lin; Lytton, William W
2017-09-26
The intra-cellular calcium signaling pathways of a neuron depends on both biochemical reactions and diffusions. Some quasi-isolated compartments (e.g. spines) are so small and calcium concentrations are so low that one extra molecule diffusing in by chance can make a nontrivial difference in its concentration (percentage-wise). These rare events can affect dynamics discretely in such way that they cannot be evaluated by a deterministic simulation. Stochastic models of such a system provide a more detailed understanding of these systems than existing deterministic models because they capture their behavior at a molecular level. Our research focuses on the development of a high performance parallel discrete event simulation environment, Neuron Time Warp (NTW), which is intended for use in the parallel simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion systems such as intra-calcium signaling. NTW is integrated with NEURON, a simulator which is widely used within the neuroscience community. We simulate two models, a calcium buffer and a calcium wave model. The calcium buffer model is employed in order to verify the correctness and performance of NTW by comparing it to a serial deterministic simulation in NEURON. We also derived a discrete event calcium wave model from a deterministic model using the stochastic IP3R structure.
Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems
Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G
2011-01-01
Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi
Probabilistic DHP adaptive critic for nonlinear stochastic control systems.
Herzallah, Randa
2013-06-01
Following the recently developed algorithms for fully probabilistic control design for general dynamic stochastic systems (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996), this paper presents the solution to the probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) adaptive critic method (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011) and randomized control algorithm for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems. The purpose of the randomized control input design is to make the joint probability density function of the closed loop system as close as possible to a predetermined ideal joint probability density function. This paper completes the previous work (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996) by formulating and solving the fully probabilistic control design problem on the more general case of nonlinear stochastic discrete time systems. A simulated example is used to demonstrate the use of the algorithm and encouraging results have been obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Automated planning through abstractions in dynamic and stochastic environments
Martínez Muñoz, Moisés
2016-01-01
Mención Internacional en el título de doctor Generating sequences of actions - plans - for an automatic system, like a robot, using Automated Planning is particularly diflicult in stochastic and/or dynamic environments. These plans are composed of actions whose execution, in certain scenarios, might fail, which in tum prevents the execution of the rest of the actions in the plan. Also, in some environments, plans must he generated fast, hoth at the start of the execution and after every ex...
Stochastic dynamics of genetic broadcasting networks
Potoyan, Davit A.; Wolynes, Peter G.
2017-11-01
The complex genetic programs of eukaryotic cells are often regulated by key transcription factors occupying or clearing out of a large number of genomic locations. Orchestrating the residence times of these factors is therefore important for the well organized functioning of a large network. The classic models of genetic switches sidestep this timing issue by assuming the binding of transcription factors to be governed entirely by thermodynamic protein-DNA affinities. Here we show that relying on passive thermodynamics and random release times can lead to a "time-scale crisis" for master genes that broadcast their signals to a large number of binding sites. We demonstrate that this time-scale crisis for clearance in a large broadcasting network can be resolved by actively regulating residence times through molecular stripping. We illustrate these ideas by studying a model of the stochastic dynamics of the genetic network of the central eukaryotic master regulator NFκ B which broadcasts its signals to many downstream genes that regulate immune response, apoptosis, etc.
Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach.
Noël, Pierre-André; Allard, Antoine; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Marceau, Vincent; Dubé, Louis J
2014-12-01
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-removed dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.
Advanced models of neural networks nonlinear dynamics and stochasticity in biological neurons
Rigatos, Gerasimos G
2015-01-01
This book provides a complete study on neural structures exhibiting nonlinear and stochastic dynamics, elaborating on neural dynamics by introducing advanced models of neural networks. It overviews the main findings in the modelling of neural dynamics in terms of electrical circuits and examines their stability properties with the use of dynamical systems theory. It is suitable for researchers and postgraduate students engaged with neural networks and dynamical systems theory.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qian, Hong
2011-01-01
The nonlinear dynamics of biochemical reactions in a small-sized system on the order of a cell are stochastic. Assuming spatial homogeneity, the populations of n molecular species follow a multi-dimensional birth-and-death process on Z n . We introduce the Delbrück–Gillespie process, a continuous-time Markov jump process, whose Kolmogorov forward equation has been known as the chemical master equation, and whose stochastic trajectories can be computed via the Gillespie algorithm. Using simple models, we illustrate that a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations on R n emerges in the infinite system size limit. For finite system size, transitions among multiple attractors of the nonlinear dynamical system are rare events with exponentially long transit times. There is a separation of time scales between the deterministic ODEs and the stochastic Markov jumps between attractors. No diffusion process can provide a global representation that is accurate on both short and long time scales for the nonlinear, stochastic population dynamics. On the short time scale and near deterministic stable fixed points, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Gaussian processes give linear stochastic dynamics that exhibit time-irreversible circular motion for open, driven chemical systems. Extending this individual stochastic behaviour-based nonlinear population theory of molecular species to other biological systems is discussed. (invited article)
Zhao, Nan
2018-02-01
The origin of winter Northern Hemispheric low-frequency variability (hereafter, LFV) is regarded to be related to the coupled earth-atmosphere system characterized by the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges. On the other hand, observed LFV usually appears as transitions among multiple planetary-scale flow regimes of Northern Hemisphere like NAO + , AO +, AO - and NAO - . Moreover, the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the planetary-scale disturbance is also inevitable in the origin of LFV. These raise a question regarding how to incorporate all these aspects into just one framework to demonstrate (1) a planetary-scale dynamics of interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges can really produce LFV, (2) such a dynamics can be responsible for the existence of above multiple flow regimes, and (3) the role of interaction with eddy is also clarified. For this purpose, a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of the coupled earth-atmosphere system derived empirically from different timescale ranges of indices of Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and length of day (LOD) and related probability density function (PDF) analysis are employed in this study. The results seem to suggest that the origin of LFV cannot be understood completely within the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges, because (1) the existence of multiple flow regimes such as NAO+, AO+, AO- and NAO- resulted from processes with timescales much longer than LFV itself, which may have underlying dynamics other than topography-jet stream interaction, and (2) we find LFV seems not necessarily to come directly from the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain, although it can produce similar oscillatory behavior. The feedback/forcing of synoptic-scale eddies on the planetary
On the stochastic dynamics of disordered spin models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Semerjian, G.; Montanari, A.; Cugliandolo, L.F.
2003-09-01
In this article we discuss several aspects of the stochastic dynamics of spin models. The paper has two independent parts. Firstly, we explore a few properties of the multi-point correlations and responses of generic systems evolving in equilibrium with a thermal bath. We propose a fluctuation principle that allows us to derive fluctuation-dissipation relations for many-time correlations and linear responses. We also speculate on how these features will be modified in systems evolving slowly out of equilibrium, as finite-dimensional or dilute spin-glasses. Secondly, we present a formalism that allows one to derive a series of approximated equations that determine the dynamics of disordered spin models on random (hyper) graphs. (author)
Stochastic Systems Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation
Grigoriu, Mircea
2012-01-01
Uncertainty is an inherent feature of both properties of physical systems and the inputs to these systems that needs to be quantified for cost effective and reliable designs. The states of these systems satisfy equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations, so that they are random functions of time and/or space. The solution of stochastic equations poses notable technical difficulties that are frequently circumvented by heuristic assumptions at the expense of accuracy and rigor. The main objective of Stochastic Systems is to promoting the development of accurate and efficient methods for solving stochastic equations and to foster interactions between engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. To achieve these objectives Stochastic Systems presents: · A clear and brief review of essential concepts on probability theory, random functions, stochastic calculus, Monte Carlo simulation, and functional analysis · Probabilistic models for random variables an...
Stochastic analysis of a novel nonautonomous periodic SIRI epidemic system with random disturbances
Zhang, Weiwei; Meng, Xinzhu
2018-02-01
In this paper, a new stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic model is formulated. Given that the incidence rates of diseases may change with the environment, we propose a novel type of transmission function. The main aim of this paper is to obtain the thresholds of the stochastic SIRI epidemic model. To this end, we investigate the dynamics of the stochastic system and establish the conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions and using stochastic analysis technique. Furthermore, we show that the stochastic system has at least one nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our results.
Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents
Di Guilmi, Corrado
2017-01-01
One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...
Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)
2016-03-14
We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.
Stochastic Modelling of Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae
2001-01-01
is that the model structure has to be adequate for practical applications, such as system simulation, fault detection and diagnosis, and design of control strategies. This also reflects on the methods used for identification of the component models. The main result from this research is the identification......In this thesis dynamic models of typical components in Danish heating systems are considered. Emphasis is made on describing and evaluating mathematical methods for identification of such models, and on presentation of component models for practical applications. The thesis consists of seven...... research papers (case studies) together with a summary report. Each case study takes it's starting point in typical heating system components and both, the applied mathematical modelling methods and the application aspects, are considered. The summary report gives an introduction to the scope...
Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model
Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James
A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.
The Theory of Dynamic Public Transit Priority with Dynamic Stochastic Park and Ride
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengming Zhu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Public transit priority is very important for relieving traffic congestion. The connotation of dynamic public transit priority and dynamic stochastic park and ride is presented. Based on the point that the travel cost of public transit is not higher than the travel cost of car, how to determine the level of dynamic public transit priority is discussed. The traffic organization method of dynamic public transit priority is introduced. For dynamic stochastic park and ride, layout principle, scale, and charging standard are discussed. Traveler acceptability is high through the analysis of questionnaire survey. Dynamic public transit priority with dynamic stochastic park and ride has application feasibility.
Efficient stochastic thermostatting of path integral molecular dynamics.
Ceriotti, Michele; Parrinello, Michele; Markland, Thomas E; Manolopoulos, David E
2010-09-28
The path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) method provides a convenient way to compute the quantum mechanical structural and thermodynamic properties of condensed phase systems at the expense of introducing an additional set of high frequency normal modes on top of the physical vibrations of the system. Efficiently sampling such a wide range of frequencies provides a considerable thermostatting challenge. Here we introduce a simple stochastic path integral Langevin equation (PILE) thermostat which exploits an analytic knowledge of the free path integral normal mode frequencies. We also apply a recently developed colored noise thermostat based on a generalized Langevin equation (GLE), which automatically achieves a similar, frequency-optimized sampling. The sampling efficiencies of these thermostats are compared with that of the more conventional Nosé-Hoover chain (NHC) thermostat for a number of physically relevant properties of the liquid water and hydrogen-in-palladium systems. In nearly every case, the new PILE thermostat is found to perform just as well as the NHC thermostat while allowing for a computationally more efficient implementation. The GLE thermostat also proves to be very robust delivering a near-optimum sampling efficiency in all of the cases considered. We suspect that these simple stochastic thermostats will therefore find useful application in many future PIMD simulations.
A Volterra series approach to the approximation of stochastic nonlinear dynamics
Wouw, van de N.; Nijmeijer, H.; Campen, van D.H.
2002-01-01
A response approximation method for stochastically excited, nonlinear, dynamic systems is presented. Herein, the output of the nonlinear system isapproximated by a finite-order Volterra series. The original nonlinear system is replaced by a bilinear system in order to determine the kernels of this
Forecasting financial asset processes: stochastic dynamics via learning neural networks.
Giebel, S; Rainer, M
2010-01-01
Models for financial asset dynamics usually take into account their inherent unpredictable nature by including a suitable stochastic component into their process. Unknown (forward) values of financial assets (at a given time in the future) are usually estimated as expectations of the stochastic asset under a suitable risk-neutral measure. This estimation requires the stochastic model to be calibrated to some history of sufficient length in the past. Apart from inherent limitations, due to the stochastic nature of the process, the predictive power is also limited by the simplifying assumptions of the common calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and regression methods, performed often without weights on the historic time series, or with static weights only. Here we propose a novel method of "intelligent" calibration, using learning neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of the stochastic model. Hence we have a stochastic process with time dependent parameters, the dynamics of the parameters being themselves learned continuously by a neural network. The back propagation in training the previous weights is limited to a certain memory length (in the examples we consider 10 previous business days), which is similar to the maximal time lag of autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts for the EURTRY and EUR-HUF exchange rates each.
风力发电高塔系统风致随机动力响应分析%Stochastic dynamic analysis of wind turbine systems under wind loads
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
贺广零; 李杰
2011-01-01
Wind energy development is an effective way to solve problems such as energy shortage and environmental pollution, so it is very useful to accurately compute the stochastic dynamic response of wind turbine systems under wind loads. Firstly< a new method termed as generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) is presented in the paper. The GPDEM has been proved to be of high accuracy and efficiency in most kinds of stochastic analysis of dynamical systems. Associated with the physical model of stochastic wind field and the integrated finite element model consisting of the rotor, the nacelle. The tower and the foundation, it is very hopeful to apply the GPDEM in stochastic dynamic analysis of wind turbine systems. Then, a 1. 25 MW wind turbine system subject to wind loads is investigated in detail, and the dynamic responses and the stochastic ones are also compared. The results demonstrate that the randomness of wind velocities places a great influence on the stochastic dynamic analysis of wind turbine systems.%介绍了一种高精度且高效的随机动力系统分析方法-广义概率密度演化方法.基于广义概率密度演化方法,结合随机脉动风场物理模型和“桨叶-机舱-塔体-基础”一体化有限元模型,分别对1.25 MW风力发电高钢塔和钢筋混凝土风力发电高塔进行了风致随机动力响应分析,并将分析结果同确定性动力响应分析结果进行比较.研究表明,随机性对风力发电高塔系统结构风致动力响应分析的影响非常显著.
Stochastic Modelling Of The Repairable System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrzejczak Karol
2015-11-01
Full Text Available All reliability models consisting of random time factors form stochastic processes. In this paper we recall the definitions of the most common point processes which are used for modelling of repairable systems. Particularly this paper presents stochastic processes as examples of reliability systems for the support of the maintenance related decisions. We consider the simplest one-unit system with a negligible repair or replacement time, i.e., the unit is operating and is repaired or replaced at failure, where the time required for repair and replacement is negligible. When the repair or replacement is completed, the unit becomes as good as new and resumes operation. The stochastic modelling of recoverable systems constitutes an excellent method of supporting maintenance related decision-making processes and enables their more rational use.
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models
2016-08-02
The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for
Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems
Puy, Arnald; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Balbo, Andrea L.
2017-03-01
This paper presents a systematic study of the relation between the size of irrigation systems and the management of uncertainty. We specifically focus on studying, through a stylized theoretical model, how stochasticity in water availability and taxation interacts with the stochastic behavior of the population within irrigation systems. Our results indicate the existence of two key population thresholds for the sustainability of any irrigation system: or the critical population size required to keep the irrigation system operative, and N* or the population threshold at which the incentive to work inside the irrigation system equals the incentives to work elsewhere. Crossing irretrievably leads to system collapse. N* is the population level with a sub-optimal per capita payoff towards which irrigation systems tend to gravitate. When subjected to strong stochasticity in water availability or taxation, irrigation systems might suffer sharp population drops and irreversibly disintegrate into a system collapse, via a mechanism we dub ‘collapse trap’. Our conceptual study establishes the basis for further work aiming at appraising the dynamics between size and stochasticity in irrigation systems, whose understanding is key for devising mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure their sustainability in the face of increasing and inevitable uncertainty.
Erdal, Jørgen Sørgård
2017-01-01
This master thesis develops a stochastic optimisation software for household grid-connected batteries combined with PV-systems. The objective of the optimisation is to operate the battery system in order to minimise the costs of the consumer, and it was implemented in MATLAB using a self-written stochastic dynamic programming algorithm. Load was considered as a stochastic variable and modelled as a Markov Chain. Transition probabilities between time steps were calculated using historic load p...
Kulasiri, Don
2002-01-01
Most of the natural and biological phenomena such as solute transport in porous media exhibit variability which can not be modeled by using deterministic approaches. There is evidence in natural phenomena to suggest that some of the observations can not be explained by using the models which give deterministic solutions. Stochastic processes have a rich repository of objects which can be used to express the randomness inherent in the system and the evolution of the system over time. The attractiveness of the stochastic differential equations (SDE) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) come from the fact that we can integrate the variability of the system along with the scientific knowledge pertaining to the system. One of the aims of this book is to explaim some useufl concepts in stochastic dynamics so that the scientists and engineers with a background in undergraduate differential calculus could appreciate the applicability and appropriateness of these developments in mathematics. The ideas ...
The Theory of Dynamic Public Transit Priority with Dynamic Stochastic Park and Ride
Zhu, Chengming; Chen, Yanyan; Ma, Changxi
2014-01-01
Public transit priority is very important for relieving traffic congestion. The connotation of dynamic public transit priority and dynamic stochastic park and ride is presented. Based on the point that the travel cost of public transit is not higher than the travel cost of car, how to determine the level of dynamic public transit priority is discussed. The traffic organization method of dynamic public transit priority is introduced. For dynamic stochastic park and ride, layout principle, scal...
On Stochastic Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Fuzzy Systems with Packet Dropout
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yingqi Zhang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness problems for one family of fuzzy discrete-time systems over networks with packet dropout, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, we present the dynamic model description studied, in which the discrete-time fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss can be described by one class of fuzzy Markovian jump systems. Then, the concepts of stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness and problem formulation are given. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions on stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness are established for the resulting closed-loop fuzzy discrete-time system with Markovian jumps, and state-feedback controllers are designed to ensure stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness of the class of fuzzy systems. The stochastic finite-time stability and stochastic finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the stochastic stability of the class of fuzzy T-S systems with packet loss. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented to show the validity of the developed methodology.
Integration of stochastic generation in power systems
Papaefthymiou, G.; Schavemaker, P.H.; Sluis, van der L.; Kling, W.L.; Kurowicka, D.; Cooke, R.M.
2006-01-01
Stochastic generation, i.e., electrical power production by an uncontrolled primary energy source, is expected to play an important role in future power systems. A new power system structure is created due to the large-scale implementation of this small-scale, distributed, non-dispatchable
Stochastic hybrid systems with renewal transitions
Guerreiro Tome Antunes, D.J.; Hespanha, J.P.; Silvestre, C.J.
2010-01-01
We consider Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHSs) for which the lengths of times that the system stays in each mode are independent random variables with given distributions. We propose an analysis framework based on a set of Volterra renewal-type equations, which allows us to compute any statistical
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Volchenkov, D.
2009-01-01
Stochastic counterparts of nonlinear dynamics are studied by means of nonperturbative functional methods developed in the framework of quantum field theory (QFT). In particular, we discuss fully developed turbulence, including leading corrections on possible compressibility of fluids, transport through porous media, theory of waterspouts and tsunami waves, stochastic magnetohydrodynamics, turbulent transport in crossed fields, self-organized criticality, and dynamics of accelerated wrinkled flame fronts advancing in a wide canal. This report would be of interest to the broad auditorium of physicists and applied mathematicians, with a background in nonperturbative QFT methods or nonlinear dynamical systems, having an interest in both methodological developments and interdisciplinary applications. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Volchenkov, D. [Bielefeld Univ., Center of Excellence Cognitive Interaction Technology (CITEC) (Germany)
2009-03-15
Stochastic counterparts of nonlinear dynamics are studied by means of nonperturbative functional methods developed in the framework of quantum field theory (QFT). In particular, we discuss fully developed turbulence, including leading corrections on possible compressibility of fluids, transport through porous media, theory of waterspouts and tsunami waves, stochastic magnetohydrodynamics, turbulent transport in crossed fields, self-organized criticality, and dynamics of accelerated wrinkled flame fronts advancing in a wide canal. This report would be of interest to the broad auditorium of physicists and applied mathematicians, with a background in nonperturbative QFT methods or nonlinear dynamical systems, having an interest in both methodological developments and interdisciplinary applications. (author)
A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos
2017-01-01
Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.
Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes
Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.
2017-12-01
Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Botterud, Audun; Korpaas, Magnus
2007-01-01
In this paper we formulate the power generation investment problem for a decentralised and profit-maximising investor operating in a restructured and competitive power system. In particular, we look at how uncertainty influences the optimal timing of investments in new power generation capacity. A real options approach is used to take long-term uncertainty in load growth, and its influence on future electricity prices, into account in the investment optimisation. In order to value the operational flexibility of a new power plant we use an electricity price model, where the spot price is a function of load level and installed generation capacity, in addition to short-term uncertainties and temporal fluctuations in the market. The investor's income from a capacity payment, which also can depend on the system's total capacity balance, can also be represented. Hence, with the optimisation model we can analyse power plant profitability and optimal timing of new investments under different market designs. In a case study from the Nordic electricity market we analyse the effect of uncertainty on optimal investment timing. We also examine how a fixed or variable capacity payment would influence the investment decision, and discuss the system consequences of the resulting investment strategies. (author)
Reformulation of a stochastic action principle for irregular dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Q.A.; Bangoup, S.; Dzangue, F.; Jeatsa, A.; Tsobnang, F.; Le Mehaute, A.
2009-01-01
A stochastic action principle for random dynamics is revisited. Numerical diffusion experiments are carried out to show that the diffusion path probability depends exponentially on the Lagrangian action A=∫ a b Ldt. This result is then used to derive the Shannon measure for path uncertainty. It is shown that the maximum entropy principle and the least action principle of classical mechanics can be unified into δA-bar=0 where the average is calculated over all possible paths of the stochastic motion between two configuration points a and b. It is argued that this action principle and the maximum entropy principle are a consequence of the mechanical equilibrium condition extended to the case of stochastic dynamics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Do Hun; Mun, Tae Hun; Kim, Dong Hwan
1999-02-01
This book introduces systems thinking and conceptual tool and modeling tool of dynamics system such as tragedy of single thinking, accessible way of system dynamics, feedback structure and causal loop diagram analysis, basic of system dynamics modeling, causal loop diagram and system dynamics modeling, information delay modeling, discovery and application for policy, modeling of crisis of agricultural and stock breeding products, dynamic model and lesson in ecosystem, development and decadence of cites and innovation of education forward system thinking.
Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)
2016-06-02
This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.
Linear System Control Using Stochastic Learning Automata
Ziyad, Nigel; Cox, E. Lucien; Chouikha, Mohamed F.
1998-01-01
This paper explains the use of a Stochastic Learning Automata (SLA) to control switching between three systems to produce the desired output response. The SLA learns the optimal choice of the damping ratio for each system to achieve a desired result. We show that the SLA can learn these states for the control of an unknown system with the proper choice of the error criteria. The results of using a single automaton are compared to using multiple automata.
Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanhui Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.
Stochastic Ocean Predictions with Dynamically-Orthogonal Primitive Equations
Subramani, D. N.; Haley, P., Jr.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.
2017-12-01
The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex and intermittent with unstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. For efficient and rigorous quantification and prediction of these uncertainities, the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) PDEs for a primitive equation ocean modeling system with a nonlinear free-surface are derived and numerical schemes for their space-time integration are obtained. Detailed numerical studies with idealized-to-realistic regional ocean dynamics are completed. These include consistency checks for the numerical schemes and comparisons with ensemble realizations. As an illustrative example, we simulate the 4-d multiscale uncertainty in the Middle Atlantic/New York Bight region during the months of Jan to Mar 2017. To provide intitial conditions for the uncertainty subspace, uncertainties in the region were objectively analyzed using historical data. The DO primitive equations were subsequently integrated in space and time. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the ocean fields is compared to in-situ, remote sensing, and opportunity data collected during the coincident POSYDON experiment. Results show that our probabilistic predictions had skill and are 3- to 4- orders of magnitude faster than classic ensemble schemes.
On the theory of stochastic dynamics of magnetically confined plasma
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
El-Sharif, R.N.; El-Atoy, N.S. [Plasma and Nuclear Fusion Dept., N.R.C, Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)]|[Physics Dept., Girls Colleges, KSA (Saudi Arabia)
2004-07-01
This work is devoted to a study of the motion of plasma electrons in a system of two fields, a magnetic field along z-axis and wave-packet field, which propagates in the x-z plane. The strongest interaction between plasma electrons and both fields is due to their resonance with these fields. The motion of plasma electrons become stochastic when a set of resonance overlapping. Conditions for stochasticity are obtained. (orig.)
Analysis of dynamic regimes in stochastically forced Kaldor model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Ryashko, Lev
2015-01-01
We consider the business cycle Kaldor model forced by random noise. Detailed parametric analysis of deterministic system is carried out and zones of coexisting stable equilibrium and stable limit cycle are found. Noise-induced transitions between these attractors are studied using stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains method. Critical values of noise intensity corresponding to noise-induced transitions “equilibrium → cycle” and “cycle → equilibrium” are estimated. Dominants in combined stochastic regimes are discussed.
On the theory of stochastic dynamics of magnetically confined plasma
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Sharif, R.N.; El-Atoy, N.S.
2004-01-01
This work is devoted to a study of the motion of plasma electrons in a system of two fields, a magnetic field along z-axis and wave-packet field, which propagates in the x-z plane. The strongest interaction between plasma electrons and both fields is due to their resonance with these fields. The motion of plasma electrons become stochastic when a set of resonance overlapping. Conditions for stochasticity are obtained. (orig.)
Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy
Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.
We construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with a structure based on a nonlinear version of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We analyze the behavior of firms’ pricing decisions in four different experimental economies. We consider how
Regular and stochastic particle motion in plasma dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaufman, A.N.
1979-08-01
A Hamiltonian formalism is presented for the study of charged-particle trajectories in the self-consistent field of the particles. The intention is to develop a general approach to plasma dynamics. Transformations of phase-space variables are used to separate out the regular, adiabatic motion from the irregular, stochastic trajectories. Several new techniques are included in this presentation
Stochastic dynamic stiffness of surface footing for offshore wind turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vahdatirad, Mohammadjavad; Andersen, Lars Vabbersgaard; Ibsen, Lars Bo
2014-01-01
Highlights •This study concerns the stochastic dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines. •A simple model of wind turbine structure with equivalent coupled springs at the base is utilized. •The level of uncertainties is quantified through a sensitivity analysis. •Estimation...
Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
C Sivakumar
2017-12-11
Dec 11, 2017 ... https://doi.org/10.1007/s12043-017-1491-z. Stochastic evolution of the Universe: A possible dynamical process leading to fractal structures. C SIVAKUMAR. Department of Physics, Maharaja's College, Ernakulam 682 011, India. E-mail: thrisivc@yahoo.com. MS received 6 July 2016; revised 26 June 2017; ...
The unsaturated bistable stochastic resonance system.
Zhao, Wenli; Wang, Juan; Wang, Linze
2013-09-01
We investigated the characteristics of the output saturation of the classical continuous bistable system (saturation bistable system) and its impact on stochastic resonance (SR). We further proposed a piecewise bistable SR system (unsaturated bistable system) and developed the expression of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) using the adiabatic approximation theory. Compared with the saturation bistable system, the SNR is significantly improved in our unsaturated bistable SR system. The numerical simulation showed that the unsaturated bistable system performed better in extracting weak signals from strong background noise than the saturation bistable system.
Stochastic transport processes in discrete biological systems
Frehland, Eckart
1982-01-01
These notes are in part based on a course for advanced students in the applications of stochastic processes held in 1978 at the University of Konstanz. These notes contain the results of re cent studies on the stochastic description of ion transport through biological membranes. In particular, they serve as an introduction to an unified theory of fluctuations in complex biological transport systems. We emphasize that the subject of this volume is not to introduce the mathematics of stochastic processes but to present a field of theoretical biophysics in which stochastic methods are important. In the last years the study of membrane noise has become an important method in biophysics. Valuable information on the ion transport mechanisms in membranes can be obtained from noise analysis. A number of different processes such as the opening and closing of ion channels have been shown to be sources of the measured current or voltage fluctuations. Bio logical 'transport systems can be complex. For example, the tr...
Discriminating chaotic and stochastic dynamics through the permutation spectrum test
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kulp, C. W., E-mail: Kulp@lycoming.edu [Department of Astronomy and Physics, Lycoming College, Williamsport, Pennsylvania 17701 (United States); Zunino, L., E-mail: lucianoz@ciop.unlp.edu.ar [Centro de Investigaciones Ópticas (CONICET La Plata—CIC), C.C. 3, 1897 Gonnet (Argentina); Departamento de Ciencias Básicas, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP), 1900 La Plata (Argentina)
2014-09-01
In this paper, we propose a new heuristic symbolic tool for unveiling chaotic and stochastic dynamics: the permutation spectrum test. Several numerical examples allow us to confirm the usefulness of the introduced methodology. Indeed, we show that it is robust in situations in which other techniques fail (intermittent chaos, hyperchaotic dynamics, stochastic linear and nonlinear correlated dynamics, and deterministic non-chaotic noise-driven dynamics). We illustrate the applicability and reliability of this pragmatic method by examining real complex time series from diverse scientific fields. Taking into account that the proposed test has the advantages of being conceptually simple and computationally fast, we think that it can be of practical utility as an alternative test for determinism.
Molecular dynamics with deterministic and stochastic numerical methods
Leimkuhler, Ben
2015-01-01
This book describes the mathematical underpinnings of algorithms used for molecular dynamics simulation, including both deterministic and stochastic numerical methods. Molecular dynamics is one of the most versatile and powerful methods of modern computational science and engineering and is used widely in chemistry, physics, materials science and biology. Understanding the foundations of numerical methods means knowing how to select the best one for a given problem (from the wide range of techniques on offer) and how to create new, efficient methods to address particular challenges as they arise in complex applications. Aimed at a broad audience, this book presents the basic theory of Hamiltonian mechanics and stochastic differential equations, as well as topics including symplectic numerical methods, the handling of constraints and rigid bodies, the efficient treatment of Langevin dynamics, thermostats to control the molecular ensemble, multiple time-stepping, and the dissipative particle dynamics method...
Stochastic Simulation of Cardiac Ventricular Myocyte Calcium Dynamics and Waves
Tuan, Hoang-Trong Minh; Williams, George S. B.; Chikando, Aristide C.; Sobie, Eric A.; Lederer, W. Jonathan; Jafri, M. Saleet
2011-01-01
A three dimensional model of calcium dynamics in the rat ventricular myocyte was developed to study the mechanism of calcium homeostasis and pathological calcium dynamics during calcium overload. The model contains 20,000 calcium release units (CRUs) each containing 49 ryanodine receptors. The model simulates calcium sparks with a realistic spontaneous calcium spark rate. It suggests that in addition to the calcium spark-based leak, there is an invisible calcium leak caused by the stochastic ...
Stochastic cooling with a double rf system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Jie.
1992-01-01
Stochastic cooling for a bunched beam of hadrons stored in an accelerator with a double rf system of two different frequencies has been investigated. The double rf system broadens the spread in synchrotron-oscillation frequency of the particles when they mostly oscillate near the center of the rf bucket. Compared with the ease of a single rf system, the reduction rates of the bunch dimensions are significantly increased. When the rf voltage is raised, the reduction rate, instead of decreasing linearly, now is independent of the ratio of the bunch area to the bucket area. On the other hand, the spread in synchrotron-oscillation frequency becomes small with the double rf system, if the longitudinal oscillation amplitudes of the particles are comparable to the dimension of the rf bucket. Consequently, stochastic cooling is less effective when the bunch area is close to the bucket area
Stochastic pump effect and geometric phases in dissipative and stochastic systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2008-01-01
The success of Berry phases in quantum mechanics stimulated the study of similar phenomena in other areas of physics, including the theory of living cell locomotion and motion of patterns in nonlinear media. More recently, geometric phases have been applied to systems operating in a strongly stochastic environment, such as molecular motors. We discuss such geometric effects in purely classical dissipative stochastic systems and their role in the theory of the stochastic pump effect (SPE).
Stochastic quasi-gradient based optimization algorithms for dynamic reliability applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bourgeois, F.; Labeau, P.E.
2001-01-01
On one hand, PSA results are increasingly used in decision making, system management and optimization of system design. On the other hand, when severe accidental transients are considered, dynamic reliability appears appropriate to account for the complex interaction between the transitions between hardware configurations, the operator behavior and the dynamic evolution of the system. This paper presents an exploratory work in which the estimation of the system unreliability in a dynamic context is coupled with an optimization algorithm to determine the 'best' safety policy. Because some reliability parameters are likely to be distributed, the cost function to be minimized turns out to be a random variable. Stochastic programming techniques are therefore envisioned to determine an optimal strategy. Monte Carlo simulation is used at all stages of the computations, from the estimation of the system unreliability to that of the stochastic quasi-gradient. The optimization algorithm is illustrated on a HNO 3 supply system
Stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal resource ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
M Bhuvaneswari
2018-04-11
Apr 11, 2018 ... handover in VANET; because of high dynamics in net- work topology, collaboration ... containers, doctors, nurses, cash and stocks. Similarly, ... GTBA does not take the resource types and availability into consideration.
Studies in the Control of Stochastic Systems
2017-10-31
control of continuous time stochastic systems with noise that is Brownian motions or fractional Brownian motions, the control of discrete time...in both continuous and discrete time. All of the above types of problems have been studied with the support of this grant. The achievement of these...scientists and engineers. 2. Math Awareness Months (MAM) (Every April for the past twenty-three years) Agenda: workshops each year for fifth
Dynamic option pricing with endogenous stochastic arbitrage
Contreras, Mauricio; Montalva, Rodrigo; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo
2010-09-01
Only few efforts have been made in order to relax one of the key assumptions of the Black-Scholes model: the no-arbitrage assumption. This is despite the fact that arbitrage processes usually exist in the real world, even though they tend to be short-lived. The purpose of this paper is to develop an option pricing model with endogenous stochastic arbitrage, capable of modelling in a general fashion any future and underlying asset that deviate itself from its market equilibrium. Thus, this investigation calibrates empirically the arbitrage on the futures on the S&P 500 index using transaction data from September 1997 to June 2009, from here a specific type of arbitrage called “arbitrage bubble”, based on a t-step function, is identified and hence used in our model. The theoretical results obtained for Binary and European call options, for this kind of arbitrage, show that an investment strategy that takes advantage of the identified arbitrage possibility can be defined, whenever it is possible to anticipate in relative terms the amplitude and timespan of the process. Finally, the new trajectory of the stock price is analytically estimated for a specific case of arbitrage and some numerical illustrations are developed. We find that the consequences of a finite and small endogenous arbitrage not only change the trajectory of the asset price during the period when it started, but also after the arbitrage bubble has already gone. In this context, our model will allow us to calibrate the B-S model to that new trajectory even when the arbitrage already started.
Mathematical models of information and stochastic systems
Kornreich, Philipp
2008-01-01
From ancient soothsayers and astrologists to today's pollsters and economists, probability theory has long been used to predict the future on the basis of past and present knowledge. Mathematical Models of Information and Stochastic Systems shows that the amount of knowledge about a system plays an important role in the mathematical models used to foretell the future of the system. It explains how this known quantity of information is used to derive a system's probabilistic properties. After an introduction, the book presents several basic principles that are employed in the remainder of the t
Dynamics and Physiological Roles of Stochastic Firing Patterns Near Bifurcation Points
Jia, Bing; Gu, Huaguang
2017-06-01
Different stochastic neural firing patterns or rhythms that appeared near polarization or depolarization resting states were observed in biological experiments on three nervous systems, and closely matched those simulated near bifurcation points between stable equilibrium point and limit cycle in a theoretical model with noise. The distinct dynamics of spike trains and interspike interval histogram (ISIH) of these stochastic rhythms were identified and found to build a relationship to the coexisting behaviors or fixed firing frequency of four different types of bifurcations. Furthermore, noise evokes coherence resonances near bifurcation points and plays important roles in enhancing information. The stochastic rhythms corresponding to Hopf bifurcation points with fixed firing frequency exhibited stronger coherence degree and a sharper peak in the power spectrum of the spike trains than those corresponding to saddle-node bifurcation points without fixed firing frequency. Moreover, the stochastic firing patterns changed to a depolarization resting state as the extracellular potassium concentration increased for the injured nerve fiber related to pathological pain or static blood pressure level increased for aortic depressor nerve fiber, and firing frequency decreased, which were different from the physiological viewpoint that firing frequency increased with increasing pressure level or potassium concentration. This shows that rhythms or firing patterns can reflect pressure or ion concentration information related to pathological pain information. Our results present the dynamics of stochastic firing patterns near bifurcation points, which are helpful for the identification of both dynamics and physiological roles of complex neural firing patterns or rhythms, and the roles of noise.
Estimation of Parameters in Mean-Reverting Stochastic Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tianhai Tian
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Stochastic differential equation (SDE is a very important mathematical tool to describe complex systems in which noise plays an important role. SDE models have been widely used to study the dynamic properties of various nonlinear systems in biology, engineering, finance, and economics, as well as physical sciences. Since a SDE can generate unlimited numbers of trajectories, it is difficult to estimate model parameters based on experimental observations which may represent only one trajectory of the stochastic model. Although substantial research efforts have been made to develop effective methods, it is still a challenge to infer unknown parameters in SDE models from observations that may have large variations. Using an interest rate model as a test problem, in this work we use the Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate unknown parameters in SDE models.
Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks
Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.
2014-09-01
The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.
Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks
M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk
2009-01-01
The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...
Improved Stochastic Subspace System Identification for Structural Health Monitoring
Chang, Chia-Ming; Loh, Chin-Hsiung
2015-07-01
Structural health monitoring acquires structural information through numerous sensor measurements. Vibrational measurement data render the dynamic characteristics of structures to be extracted, in particular of the modal properties such as natural frequencies, damping, and mode shapes. The stochastic subspace system identification has been recognized as a power tool which can present a structure in the modal coordinates. To obtain qualitative identified data, this tool needs to spend computational expense on a large set of measurements. In study, a stochastic system identification framework is proposed to improve the efficiency and quality of the conventional stochastic subspace system identification. This framework includes 1) measured signal processing, 2) efficient space projection, 3) system order selection, and 4) modal property derivation. The measured signal processing employs the singular spectrum analysis algorithm to lower the noise components as well as to present a data set in a reduced dimension. The subspace is subsequently derived from the data set presented in a delayed coordinate. With the proposed order selection criteria, the number of structural modes is determined, resulting in the modal properties. This system identification framework is applied to a real-world bridge for exploring the feasibility in real-time applications. The results show that this improved system identification method significantly decreases computational time, while qualitative modal parameters are still attained.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jiang, Shixiao W; Lu, Haihao; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David
2016-01-01
Characterizing dispersive wave turbulence in the long time dynamics is central to understanding of many natural phenomena, e.g., in atmosphere ocean dynamics, nonlinear optics, and plasma physics. Using the β -Fermi–Pasta–Ulam nonlinear system as a prototypical example, we show that in thermal equilibrium and non-equilibrium steady state the turbulent state even in the strongly nonlinear regime possesses an effective linear stochastic structure in renormalized normal variables. In this framework, we can well characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics, which are dominated by long-wavelength renormalized waves. We further demonstrate that the energy flux is nearly saturated by the long-wavelength renormalized waves in non-equilibrium steady state. The scenario of such effective linear stochastic dynamics can be extended to study turbulent states in other nonlinear wave systems. (paper)
Mean, covariance, and effective dimension of stochastic distributed delay dynamics
René, Alexandre; Longtin, André
2017-11-01
Dynamical models are often required to incorporate both delays and noise. However, the inherently infinite-dimensional nature of delay equations makes formal solutions to stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) challenging. Here, we present an approach, similar in spirit to the analysis of functional differential equations, but based on finite-dimensional matrix operators. This results in a method for obtaining both transient and stationary solutions that is directly amenable to computation, and applicable to first order differential systems with either discrete or distributed delays. With fewer assumptions on the system's parameters than other current solution methods and no need to be near a bifurcation, we decompose the solution to a linear SDDE with arbitrary distributed delays into natural modes, in effect the eigenfunctions of the differential operator, and show that relatively few modes can suffice to approximate the probability density of solutions. Thus, we are led to conclude that noise makes these SDDEs effectively low dimensional, which opens the possibility of practical definitions of probability densities over their solution space.
Age distribution dynamics with stochastic jumps in mortality.
Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare; Laio, Francesco; D'Odorico, Paolo; Ridolfi, Luca
2017-11-01
While deterministic age distribution models have been extensively studied and applied in various disciplines, little work has been devoted to understanding the role of stochasticity in birth and mortality terms. In this paper, we analyse a stochastic M'Kendrick-von Foerster equation in which jumps in mortality represent intense losses of population due to external events. We present explicit solutions for the probability density functions of the age distribution and the total population and for the temporal dynamics of their moments. We also derive the dynamics of the mean age of the population and its harmonic mean. The framework is then used to calculate the age distribution of salt in the soil root zone, where the accumulation of salt by atmospheric deposition is counteracted by plant uptake and by jump losses due to percolation events.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sun, Zhi-Yuan; Gao, Yi-Tian; Yu, Xin; Liu, Ying
2013-01-01
We respectively investigate breakup and switching of the Manakov-typed bound vector solitons (BVSs) induced by two types of stochastic perturbations: the homogenous and nonhomogenous. Symmetry-recovering is discovered for the asymmetrical homogenous case, while soliton switching is found to relate with the perturbation amplitude and soliton coherence. Simulations show that soliton switching in the circularly-polarized light system is much weaker than that in the Manakov and linearly-polarized systems. In addition, the homogenous perturbations can enhance the soliton switching in both of the Manakov and non-integrable (linearly- and circularly-polarized) systems. Our results might be helpful in interpreting dynamics of the BVSs with stochastic noises in nonlinear optics or with stochastic quantum fluctuations in Bose–Einstein condensates.
Spatial effect on stochastic dynamics of bistable evolutionary games
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
So, Kohaku H Z; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Kato, Takeo
2014-01-01
We consider the lifetimes of metastable states in bistable evolutionary games (coordination games), and examine how they are affected by spatial structure. A semiclassical approximation based on a path integral method is applied to stochastic evolutionary game dynamics with and without spatial structure, and the lifetimes of the metastable states are evaluated. It is shown that the population dependence of the lifetimes is qualitatively different in these two models. Our result indicates that spatial structure can accelerate the transitions between metastable states. (paper)
Dynamic asset allocation for bank under stochastic interest rates.
Chakroun, Fatma; Abid, Fathi
2014-01-01
This paper considers the optimal asset allocation strategy for bank with stochastic interest rates when there are three types of asset: Bank account, loans and securities. The asset allocation problem is to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth of a bank's shareholders over a finite time horizon. As a consequence, we apply a dynamic programming principle to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly in the case of the CRRA utility function. A case study is given ...
Leander, Jacob; Lundh, Torbjörn; Jirstrand, Mats
2014-05-01
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating parameters in ordinary differential equations given discrete time experimental data. The impact of going from an ordinary to a stochastic differential equation setting is investigated as a tool to overcome the problem of local minima in the objective function. Using two different models, it is demonstrated that by allowing noise in the underlying model itself, the objective functions to be minimized in the parameter estimation procedures are regularized in the sense that the number of local minima is reduced and better convergence is achieved. The advantage of using stochastic differential equations is that the actual states in the model are predicted from data and this will allow the prediction to stay close to data even when the parameters in the model is incorrect. The extended Kalman filter is used as a state estimator and sensitivity equations are provided to give an accurate calculation of the gradient of the objective function. The method is illustrated using in silico data from the FitzHugh-Nagumo model for excitable media and the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. The proposed method performs well on the models considered, and is able to regularize the objective function in both models. This leads to parameter estimation problems with fewer local minima which can be solved by efficient gradient-based methods. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Du Luchun; Mei Dongcheng
2011-01-01
The non-adiabatic regime of stochastic resonance (SR) in a bistable system with time delay, an additive white noise and a periodic signal was investigated. The signal power amplification η was employed to characterize the SR of the system. The simulation results indicate that (i) in the case of intermediate frequency Ω of the periodic signal, the typical behavior of SR is lowered monotonically by increasing the delay time τ; in the case of large Ω, τ weakens the SR behavior and then enhances it, with a non-monotonic behavior as a function of time delay; (ii) time delay induces SR when A is above the threshold, whereas no such resonance exists in the absence of time delay; (iii) time delay induces a transition from bimodal to unimodal configuration of η; (iv) varying the particular form of time delay results in different phenomena.
Dynamic electricity pricing for electric vehicles using stochastic programming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, João; Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Borges, Nuno; Vale, Zita
2017-01-01
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are an important source of uncertainty, due to their variable demand, departure time and location. In smart grids, the electricity demand can be controlled via Demand Response (DR) programs. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid seem highly promising methods for EVs control. However, high capital costs remain a barrier to implementation. Meanwhile, incentive and price-based schemes that do not require high level of control can be implemented to influence the EVs' demand. Having effective tools to deal with the increasing level of uncertainty is increasingly important for players, such as energy aggregators. This paper formulates a stochastic model for day-ahead energy resource scheduling, integrated with the dynamic electricity pricing for EVs, to address the challenges brought by the demand and renewable sources uncertainty. The two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to obtain the optimal electricity pricing for EVs. A realistic case study projected for 2030 is presented based on Zaragoza network. The results demonstrate that it is more effective than the deterministic model and that the optimal pricing is preferable. This study indicates that adequate DR schemes like the proposed one are promising to increase the customers' satisfaction in addition to improve the profitability of the energy aggregation business. - Highlights: • A stochastic model for energy scheduling tackling several uncertainty sources. • A two-stage stochastic programming is used to tackle the developed model. • Optimal EV electricity pricing seems to improve the profits. • The propose results suggest to increase the customers' satisfaction.
The stochastic network dynamics underlying perceptual discrimination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Genis Prat-Ortega
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The brain is able to interpret streams of high-dimensional ambiguous information and yield coherent percepts. The mechanisms governing sensory integration have been extensively characterized using time-varying visual stimuli (Britten et al. 1996; Roitman and Shadlen 2002, but some of the basic principles regarding the network dynamics underlying this process remain largely unknown. We captured the basic features of a neural integrator using three canonical one-dimensional models: (1 the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, (2 the Perfect Integrator (PI which is a particular case of the DDM where the bounds are set to infinity and (3 the double-well potential (DW which captures the dynamics of the attractor networks (Wang 2002; Roxin and Ledberg 2008. Although these models has been widely studied (Bogacz et al. 2006; Roxin and Ledberg 2008; Gold and Shadlen 2002, it has been difficult to experimentally discriminate among them because most of the observables measured are only quantitatively different among these models (e.g. psychometric curves. Here we aim to find experimentally measurable quantities that can yield qualitatively different behaviors depending on the nature of the underlying network dynamics. We examined the categorization dynamics of these models in response to fluctuating stimuli of different duration (T. On each time step, stimuli are drawn from a Gaussian distribution N(μ, σ and the two stimulus categories are defined by μ > 0 and μ < 0. Psychometric curves can therefore be obtained by quantifying the probability of the integrator to yield one category versus μ . We find however that varying σ can reveal more clearly the differences among the different integrators. In the small σ regime, both the DW and the DDM perform transient integration and exhibit a decaying stimulus reverse correlation kernel revealing a primacy effect (Nienborg and Cumming 2009; Wimmer et al. 2015 . In the large σ regime, the integration in the DDM
A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics
von Schwerin, Erik; Szepessy, Anders
2010-01-01
The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.
A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics
von Schwerin, Erik
2010-03-17
The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.
Stochastic network optimization with application to communication and queueing systems
Neely, Michael
2010-01-01
This text presents a modern theory of analysis, control, and optimization for dynamic networks. Mathematical techniques of Lyapunov drift and Lyapunov optimization are developed and shown to enable constrained optimization of time averages in general stochastic systems. The focus is on communication and queueing systems, including wireless networks with time-varying channels, mobility, and randomly arriving traffic. A simple drift-plus-penalty framework is used to optimize time averages such as throughput, throughput-utility, power, and distortion. Explicit performance-delay tradeoffs are prov
Simulation of quantum dynamics based on the quantum stochastic differential equation.
Li, Ming
2013-01-01
The quantum stochastic differential equation derived from the Lindblad form quantum master equation is investigated. The general formulation in terms of environment operators representing the quantum state diffusion is given. The numerical simulation algorithm of stochastic process of direct photodetection of a driven two-level system for the predictions of the dynamical behavior is proposed. The effectiveness and superiority of the algorithm are verified by the performance analysis of the accuracy and the computational cost in comparison with the classical Runge-Kutta algorithm.
Distributed Consensus of Stochastic Delayed Multi-agent Systems Under Asynchronous Switching.
Wu, Xiaotai; Tang, Yang; Cao, Jinde; Zhang, Wenbing
2016-08-01
In this paper, the distributed exponential consensus of stochastic delayed multi-agent systems with nonlinear dynamics is investigated under asynchronous switching. The asynchronous switching considered here is to account for the time of identifying the active modes of multi-agent systems. After receipt of confirmation of mode's switching, the matched controller can be applied, which means that the switching time of the matched controller in each node usually lags behind that of system switching. In order to handle the coexistence of switched signals and stochastic disturbances, a comparison principle of stochastic switched delayed systems is first proved. By means of this extended comparison principle, several easy to verified conditions for the existence of an asynchronously switched distributed controller are derived such that stochastic delayed multi-agent systems with asynchronous switching and nonlinear dynamics can achieve global exponential consensus. Two examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey A Hostetler
Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.
Frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance in neural systems
Guo, Daqing; Perc, Matjaž; Zhang, Yangsong; Xu, Peng; Yao, Dezhong
2017-08-01
Biological neurons receive multiple noisy oscillatory signals, and their dynamical response to the superposition of these signals is of fundamental importance for information processing in the brain. Here we study the response of neural systems to the weak envelope modulation signal, which is superimposed by two periodic signals with different frequencies. We show that stochastic resonance occurs at the beat frequency in neural systems at the single-neuron as well as the population level. The performance of this frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance is influenced by both the beat frequency and the two forcing frequencies. Compared to a single neuron, a population of neurons is more efficient in detecting the information carried by the weak envelope modulation signal at the beat frequency. Furthermore, an appropriate fine-tuning of the excitation-inhibition balance can further optimize the response of a neural ensemble to the superimposed signal. Our results thus introduce and provide insights into the generation and modulation mechanism of the frequency-difference-dependent stochastic resonance in neural systems.
Perturbation expansions of stochastic wavefunctions for open quantum systems
Ke, Yaling; Zhao, Yi
2017-11-01
Based on the stochastic unravelling of the reduced density operator in the Feynman path integral formalism for an open quantum system in touch with harmonic environments, a new non-Markovian stochastic Schrödinger equation (NMSSE) has been established that allows for the systematic perturbation expansion in the system-bath coupling to arbitrary order. This NMSSE can be transformed in a facile manner into the other two NMSSEs, i.e., non-Markovian quantum state diffusion and time-dependent wavepacket diffusion method. Benchmarked by numerically exact results, we have conducted a comparative study of the proposed method in its lowest order approximation, with perturbative quantum master equations in the symmetric spin-boson model and the realistic Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex. It is found that our method outperforms the second-order time-convolutionless quantum master equation in the whole parameter regime and even far better than the fourth-order in the slow bath and high temperature cases. Besides, the method is applicable on an equal footing for any kind of spectral density function and is expected to be a powerful tool to explore the quantum dynamics of large-scale systems, benefiting from the wavefunction framework and the time-local appearance within a single stochastic trajectory.
Stochastic Reformulations of Linear Systems: Algorithms and Convergence Theory
Richtarik, Peter; Taká č, Martin
2017-01-01
We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete or continuous distribution over random matrices. Our reformulation has several equivalent interpretations, allowing for researchers from various communities to leverage their domain specific insights. In particular, our reformulation can be equivalently seen as a stochastic optimization problem, stochastic linear system, stochastic fixed point problem and a probabilistic intersection problem. We prove sufficient, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the reformulation to be exact. Further, we propose and analyze three stochastic algorithms for solving the reformulated problem---basic, parallel and accelerated methods---with global linear convergence rates. The rates can be interpreted as condition numbers of a matrix which depends on the system matrix and on the reformulation parameters. This gives rise to a new phenomenon which we call stochastic preconditioning, and which refers to the problem of finding parameters (matrix and distribution) leading to a sufficiently small condition number. Our basic method can be equivalently interpreted as stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton method, stochastic proximal point method, stochastic fixed point method, and stochastic projection method, with fixed stepsize (relaxation parameter), applied to the reformulations.
Stochastic Reformulations of Linear Systems: Algorithms and Convergence Theory
Richtarik, Peter
2017-06-04
We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete or continuous distribution over random matrices. Our reformulation has several equivalent interpretations, allowing for researchers from various communities to leverage their domain specific insights. In particular, our reformulation can be equivalently seen as a stochastic optimization problem, stochastic linear system, stochastic fixed point problem and a probabilistic intersection problem. We prove sufficient, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the reformulation to be exact. Further, we propose and analyze three stochastic algorithms for solving the reformulated problem---basic, parallel and accelerated methods---with global linear convergence rates. The rates can be interpreted as condition numbers of a matrix which depends on the system matrix and on the reformulation parameters. This gives rise to a new phenomenon which we call stochastic preconditioning, and which refers to the problem of finding parameters (matrix and distribution) leading to a sufficiently small condition number. Our basic method can be equivalently interpreted as stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton method, stochastic proximal point method, stochastic fixed point method, and stochastic projection method, with fixed stepsize (relaxation parameter), applied to the reformulations.
Modeling and stochastic analysis of dynamic mechanisms of the perception
Pisarchik, A.; Bashkirtseva, I.; Ryashko, L.
2017-10-01
Modern studies in physiology and cognitive neuroscience consider a noise as an important constructive factor of the brain functionality. Under the adequate noise, the brain can rapidly access different ordered states, and provide decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Bistable dynamic models are often used for the study of the underlying mechanisms of the visual perception. In the present paper, we consider a bistable energy model subject to both additive and parametric noise. Using the catastrophe theory formalism and stochastic sensitivity functions technique, we analyze a response of the equilibria to noise, and study noise-induced transitions between equilibria. We demonstrate and analyse the effect of hysteresis squeezing when the intensity of noise is increased. Stochastic bifurcations connected with the suppression of oscillations by parametric noises are discussed.
Patrick C. Tobin; Ottar N. Bjornstad
2005-01-01
Natural enemy-victim systems may exhibit a range of dynamic space-time patterns. We used a theoretical framework to study spatiotemporal structuring in a transient natural enemy-victim system subject to differential rates of dispersal, stochastic forcing, and nonlinear dynamics. Highly mobile natural enemies that attacked less mobile victims were locally spatially...
Studies to the stochastic theory of coupled reactorkinetic-thermohydraulic systems Pt. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mesko, L.
1983-06-01
The description is given of the noise phenomena taking place in a multivariable coupled system by a comprehensive model based on the theory of stochastic fluctuations. A comparison is made with models using transfer function formalism for systems characterized by deterministic open and closed loop signal transmission properties. The advantages of the stochastic model are illustrated by simple reactor dynamical examples having diagnostical importance. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Junhai Ma
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Apart from the price fluctuation, the retailers’ service level becomes another key factor that affects the market demand. This paper depicts a modified price and demand game model based on the stochastic demand and the retailer’s service level which influences the market demand decided by customers’ preference, while the market demand is stochastic in this model. We explore how the price adjustment speed affects the stability of the supply chain system with respect to service level and stochastic demand. The dynamic behavior of the system is researched by simulation and the stability domain and the bifurcation phenomenon are shown clearly. The largest Lyapunov exponent and the chaotic attractor are also given to confirm the chaotic characteristic of the system. The simulation results indicate that relatively small price adjustment speed may maintain the system at stable state. With the price adjustment speed gradually increasing, the price system gets unstable and finally becomes chaotic. This chaotic phenomenon will perturb the product market and this phenomenon should be controlled to keep the system stay in the stable region. So the chaos control is done and the chaos can be controlled completely. The conclusion makes significant contribution to the system referring to the price fluctuation based on the service level and stochastic demand.
Large-scale stochasticity in Hamiltonian systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Escande, D.F.
1982-01-01
Large scale stochasticity (L.S.S.) in Hamiltonian systems is defined on the paradigm Hamiltonian H(v,x,t) =v 2 /2-M cos x-P cos k(x-t) which describes the motion of one particle in two electrostatic waves. A renormalization transformation Tsub(r) is described which acts as a microscope that focusses on a given KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser) torus in phase space. Though approximate, Tsub(r) yields the threshold of L.S.S. in H with an error of 5-10%. The universal behaviour of KAM tori is predicted: for instance the scale invariance of KAM tori and the critical exponent of the Lyapunov exponent of Cantori. The Fourier expansion of KAM tori is computed and several conjectures by L. Kadanoff and S. Shenker are proved. Chirikov's standard mapping for stochastic layers is derived in a simpler way and the width of the layers is computed. A simpler renormalization scheme for these layers is defined. A Mathieu equation for describing the stability of a discrete family of cycles is derived. When combined with Tsub(r), it allows to prove the link between KAM tori and nearby cycles, conjectured by J. Greene and, in particular, to compute the mean residue of a torus. The fractal diagrams defined by G. Schmidt are computed. A sketch of a methodology for computing the L.S.S. threshold in any two-degree-of-freedom Hamiltonian system is given. (Auth.)
Sternberg, Shlomo
2010-01-01
Celebrated mathematician Shlomo Sternberg, a pioneer in the field of dynamical systems, created this modern one-semester introduction to the subject for his classes at Harvard University. Its wide-ranging treatment covers one-dimensional dynamics, differential equations, random walks, iterated function systems, symbolic dynamics, and Markov chains. Supplementary materials offer a variety of online components, including PowerPoint lecture slides for professors and MATLAB exercises.""Even though there are many dynamical systems books on the market, this book is bound to become a classic. The the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Aberkane
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with dynamic output feedback control of continuous-time active fault tolerant control systems with Markovian parameters (AFTCSMP and state-dependent noise. The main contribution is to formulate conditions for multiperformance design, related to this class of stochastic hybrid systems, that take into account the problematic resulting from the fact that the controller only depends on the fault detection and isolation (FDI process. The specifications and objectives under consideration include stochastic stability, ℋ2 and ℋ∞ (or more generally, stochastic integral quadratic constraints performances. Results are formulated as matrix inequalities. The theoretical results are illustrated using a classical example from literature.
Filtering and control of stochastic jump hybrid systems
Yao, Xiuming; Zheng, Wei Xing
2016-01-01
This book presents recent research work on stochastic jump hybrid systems. Specifically, the considered stochastic jump hybrid systems include Markovian jump Ito stochastic systems, Markovian jump linear-parameter-varying (LPV) systems, Markovian jump singular systems, Markovian jump two-dimensional (2-D) systems, and Markovian jump repeated scalar nonlinear systems. Some sufficient conditions are first established respectively for the stability and performances of those kinds of stochastic jump hybrid systems in terms of solution of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Based on the derived analysis conditions, the filtering and control problems are addressed. The book presents up-to-date research developments and novel methodologies on stochastic jump hybrid systems. The contents can be divided into two parts: the first part is focused on robust filter design problem, while the second part is put the emphasis on robust control problem. These methodologies provide a framework for stability and performance analy...
Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.
Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K
2012-01-01
Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.
Buesing, Lars; Bill, Johannes; Nessler, Bernhard; Maass, Wolfgang
2011-11-01
The organization of computations in networks of spiking neurons in the brain is still largely unknown, in particular in view of the inherently stochastic features of their firing activity and the experimentally observed trial-to-trial variability of neural systems in the brain. In principle there exists a powerful computational framework for stochastic computations, probabilistic inference by sampling, which can explain a large number of macroscopic experimental data in neuroscience and cognitive science. But it has turned out to be surprisingly difficult to create a link between these abstract models for stochastic computations and more detailed models of the dynamics of networks of spiking neurons. Here we create such a link and show that under some conditions the stochastic firing activity of networks of spiking neurons can be interpreted as probabilistic inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Since common methods for MCMC sampling in distributed systems, such as Gibbs sampling, are inconsistent with the dynamics of spiking neurons, we introduce a different approach based on non-reversible Markov chains that is able to reflect inherent temporal processes of spiking neuronal activity through a suitable choice of random variables. We propose a neural network model and show by a rigorous theoretical analysis that its neural activity implements MCMC sampling of a given distribution, both for the case of discrete and continuous time. This provides a step towards closing the gap between abstract functional models of cortical computation and more detailed models of networks of spiking neurons.
Economic MPC for a linear stochastic system of energy units
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Sokoler, Leo Emil; Standardi, Laura
2016-01-01
This paper summarizes comprehensively the work in four recent PhD theses from the Technical University of Denmark related to Economic MPC of future power systems. Future power systems will consist of a large number of decentralized power producers and a large number of controllable power consumers...... in addition to stochastic power producers such as wind turbines and solar power plants. Control of such large scale systems requires new control algorithms. In this paper, we formulate the control of such a system as an Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) problem. When the power producers and controllable...... power consumers have linear dynamics, the Economic MPC may be expressed as a linear program. We provide linear models for a number of energy units in an energy system, formulate an Economic MPC for coordination of such a system. We indicate how advances in computational MPC makes the solutions...
Stochastic dynamics of penetrable rods in one dimension: Entangled dynamics and transport properties
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Craven, Galen T.; Popov, Alexander V.; Hernandez, Rigoberto, E-mail: hernandez@chemistry.gatech.edu [Center for Computational Molecular Science and Technology, School of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0400 (United States)
2015-04-21
The dynamical properties of a system of soft rods governed by stochastic hard collisions (SHCs) have been determined over a varying range of softness using molecular dynamics simulations in one dimension and analytic theory. The SHC model allows for interpenetration of the system’s constituent particles in the simulations, generating overlapping clustering behavior analogous to the spatial structures observed in systems governed by deterministic bounded potentials. Through variation of an assigned softness parameter δ, the limiting ranges of intermolecular softness are bridged, connecting the limiting ensemble behavior from hard to ideal (completely soft). Various dynamical and structural observables are measured from simulation and compared to developed theoretical values. The spatial properties are found to be well predicted by theories developed for the deterministic penetrable-sphere model with a transformation from energetic to probabilistic arguments. While the overlapping spatial structures are complex, the dynamical properties can be adequately approximated through a theory built on impulsive interactions with Enskog corrections. Our theory suggests that as the softness of interaction is varied toward the ideal limit, correlated collision processes are less important to the energy transfer mechanism, and Markovian processes dominate the evolution of the configuration space ensemble. For interaction softness close to hard limit, collision processes are highly correlated and overlapping spatial configurations give rise to entanglement of single-particle trajectories.
Stochastic modeling of wetland-groundwater systems
Bertassello, Leonardo Enrico; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Park, Jeryang; Jawitz, James W.; Botter, Gianluca
2018-02-01
Modeling and data analyses were used in this study to examine the temporal hydrological variability in geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), as influenced by hydrologic connectivity to shallow groundwater, wetland bathymetry, and subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing. We examined the general case of GIWs coupled to shallow groundwater through exfiltration or infiltration across wetland bottom. We also examined limiting case with the wetland stage as the local expression of the shallow groundwater. We derive analytical expressions for the steady-state probability density functions (pdfs) for wetland water storage and stage using few, scaled, physically-based parameters. In addition, we analyze the hydrologic crossing time properties of wetland stage, and the dependence of the mean hydroperiod on climatic and wetland morphologic attributes. Our analyses show that it is crucial to account for shallow groundwater connectivity to fully understand the hydrologic dynamics in wetlands. The application of the model to two different case studies in Florida, jointly with a detailed sensitivity analysis, allowed us to identify the main drivers of hydrologic dynamics in GIWs under different climate and morphologic conditions.
A stochastic differential equation analysis of cerebrospinal fluid dynamics.
Raman, Kalyan
2011-01-18
Clinical measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP) over time show fluctuations around the deterministic time path predicted by a classic mathematical model in hydrocephalus research. Thus an important issue in mathematical research on hydrocephalus remains unaddressed--modeling the effect of noise on CSF dynamics. Our objective is to mathematically model the noise in the data. The classic model relating the temporal evolution of ICP in pressure-volume studies to infusions is a nonlinear differential equation based on natural physical analogies between CSF dynamics and an electrical circuit. Brownian motion was incorporated into the differential equation describing CSF dynamics to obtain a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) that accommodates the fluctuations in ICP. The SDE is explicitly solved and the dynamic probabilities of exceeding critical levels of ICP under different clinical conditions are computed. A key finding is that the probabilities display strong threshold effects with respect to noise. Above the noise threshold, the probabilities are significantly influenced by the resistance to CSF outflow and the intensity of the noise. Fluctuations in the CSF formation rate increase fluctuations in the ICP and they should be minimized to lower the patient's risk. The nonlinear SDE provides a scientific methodology for dynamic risk management of patients. The dynamic output of the SDE matches the noisy ICP data generated by the actual intracranial dynamics of patients better than the classic model used in prior research.
A stochastic differential equation analysis of cerebrospinal fluid dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raman Kalyan
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP over time show fluctuations around the deterministic time path predicted by a classic mathematical model in hydrocephalus research. Thus an important issue in mathematical research on hydrocephalus remains unaddressed--modeling the effect of noise on CSF dynamics. Our objective is to mathematically model the noise in the data. Methods The classic model relating the temporal evolution of ICP in pressure-volume studies to infusions is a nonlinear differential equation based on natural physical analogies between CSF dynamics and an electrical circuit. Brownian motion was incorporated into the differential equation describing CSF dynamics to obtain a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE that accommodates the fluctuations in ICP. Results The SDE is explicitly solved and the dynamic probabilities of exceeding critical levels of ICP under different clinical conditions are computed. A key finding is that the probabilities display strong threshold effects with respect to noise. Above the noise threshold, the probabilities are significantly influenced by the resistance to CSF outflow and the intensity of the noise. Conclusions Fluctuations in the CSF formation rate increase fluctuations in the ICP and they should be minimized to lower the patient's risk. The nonlinear SDE provides a scientific methodology for dynamic risk management of patients. The dynamic output of the SDE matches the noisy ICP data generated by the actual intracranial dynamics of patients better than the classic model used in prior research.
Time-ordered product expansions for computational stochastic system biology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mjolsness, Eric
2013-01-01
The time-ordered product framework of quantum field theory can also be used to understand salient phenomena in stochastic biochemical networks. It is used here to derive Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for chemical reaction networks; consequently, the SSA can be interpreted in terms of Feynman diagrams. It is also used here to derive other, more general simulation and parameter-learning algorithms including simulation algorithms for networks of stochastic reaction-like processes operating on parameterized objects, and also hybrid stochastic reaction/differential equation models in which systems of ordinary differential equations evolve the parameters of objects that can also undergo stochastic reactions. Thus, the time-ordered product expansion can be used systematically to derive simulation and parameter-fitting algorithms for stochastic systems. (paper)
A Dynamic Momentum Compaction Factor Lattice for Improvements to Stochastic Cooling in Storage Rings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Olivieri, David Nicholas [Massachusetts U., Amherst
1996-01-01
A dynamic momentum compaction factor, also referred to as a dynamic $\\Delta \\gamma \\tau$, lattice for the FNAL Antiproton Source Debuncher Storage Ring is studied, both theoretically and experimentally, for the purpose of improving stochastic precooling, and hence, improving the global antiproton production and stacking performance. A dynamic $\\Delta \\gamma \\tau$ lattice is proposed due to the competing requirements inherent within the Debuncher storage ring upon $\\gamma \\tau$· Specifically, the Debuncher storage ring performs two disparate functions, $(i)$ accepting and debunching a large number of $\\overline{p}$s/pulse at the outset of the production cycle, which would perform ideally with a large value of $\\gamma\\tau$, and $(ii)$ subsequently employing stochastic cooling throughout the remainder of the $\\overline{p}$ production cycle for improved transfer and stacking efficiency into the Accumulator, for which a small value $\\gamma \\tau$ is ideal in order to reduce the diffusive heating caused by the mixing factor. In the initial design of the Debuncher optical lattice, an intermediate value of $\\gamma \\tau$ was chosen as a compromise between the two functional requirements. The goal of the thesis is to improve stochastic precooling by changing $\\gamma \\tau$ between two desired values during each p production cycle. In particular, the dynamic $\\Delta \\gamma \\tau$ lattice accomplishes a reduction in $\\gamma \\tau$, and hence the mixing factor, through an uniform increase to the dispersion throughout the arc sections of the storage ring. Experimental measurements of cooling rates and system performance parameters, with the implementation of the dynamic $\\Delta \\gamma \\tau$ lattice, are in agreement with theoretical predictions based upon a detailed integration of the stochastic cooling Fokker Planck equations. Based upon the consistency between theory and experiment, predictions of cooling rates are presented for future operational
A stochastic approach to multi-gene expression dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ochiai, T.; Nacher, J.C.; Akutsu, T.
2005-01-01
In the last years, tens of thousands gene expression profiles for cells of several organisms have been monitored. Gene expression is a complex transcriptional process where mRNA molecules are translated into proteins, which control most of the cell functions. In this process, the correlation among genes is crucial to determine the specific functions of genes. Here, we propose a novel multi-dimensional stochastic approach to deal with the gene correlation phenomena. Interestingly, our stochastic framework suggests that the study of the gene correlation requires only one theoretical assumption-Markov property-and the experimental transition probability, which characterizes the gene correlation system. Finally, a gene expression experiment is proposed for future applications of the model
Stochastic resonance in a stochastic bistable system with additive noises and square–wave signal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng, Guo; Xiang-Dong, Luo; Shao-Fu, Li; Yu-Rong, Zhou
2010-01-01
This paper considers the stochastic resonance in a stochastic bistable system driven by a periodic square-wave signal and a static force as well as by additive white noise and dichotomous noise from the viewpoint of signal-to-noise ratio. It finds that the signal-to-noise ratio appears as stochastic resonance behaviour when it is plotted as a function of the noise strength of the white noise and dichotomous noise, as a function of the system parameters, or as a function of the static force. Moreover, the influence of the strength of the stochastic potential force and the correlation rate of the dichotomous noise on the signal-to-noise ratio is investigated. (general)
Evaluation of Electric Power Procurement Strategies by Stochastic Dynamic Programming
Saisho, Yuichi; Hayashi, Taketo; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji
In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contact with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and additionally considering the characteristics of the start-up cost of electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto-generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the price uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement.
Stochastic Neural Field Theory and the System-Size Expansion
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-01-01
We analyze a master equation formulation of stochastic neurodynamics for a network of synaptically coupled homogeneous neuronal populations each consisting of N identical neurons. The state of the network is specified by the fraction of active or spiking neurons in each population, and transition rates are chosen so that in the thermodynamic or deterministic limit (N → ∞) we recover standard activity-based or voltage-based rate models. We derive the lowest order corrections to these rate equations for large but finite N using two different approximation schemes, one based on the Van Kampen system-size expansion and the other based on path integral methods. Both methods yield the same series expansion of the moment equations, which at O(1/N) can be truncated to form a closed system of equations for the first-and second-order moments. Taking a continuum limit of the moment equations while keeping the system size N fixed generates a system of integrodifferential equations for the mean and covariance of the corresponding stochastic neural field model. We also show how the path integral approach can be used to study large deviation or rare event statistics underlying escape from the basin of attraction of a stable fixed point of the mean-field dynamics; such an analysis is not possible using the system-size expansion since the latter cannot accurately determine exponentially small transitions. © by SIAM.
Comparison of stochastic resonance in static and dynamical nonlinearities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Yumei; Duan, Fabing
2014-01-01
We compare the stochastic resonance (SR) effects in parallel arrays of static and dynamical nonlinearities via the measure of output signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). For a received noisy periodic signal, parallel arrays of both static and dynamical nonlinearities can enhance the output SNR by optimizing the internal noise level. The static nonlinearity is easily implementable, while the dynamical nonlinearity has more parameters to be tuned, at the risk of not exploiting the beneficial role of internal noise components. It is of interest to note that, for an input signal buried in the external Laplacian noise, we show that the dynamical nonlinearity is superior to the static nonlinearity in obtaining a better output SNR. This characteristic is assumed to be closely associated with the kurtosis of noise distribution. - Highlights: • Comparison of SR effects in arrays of both static and dynamical nonlinearities. • Static nonlinearity is easily implementable for the SNR enhancement. • Dynamical nonlinearity yields a better output SNR for external Laplacian noise
Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana
2018-01-01
A problem of mathematical modeling of complex stochastic processes in macroeconomics is discussed. For the description of dynamics of income and capital stock, the well-known Kaldor model of business cycles is used as a basic example. The aim of the paper is to give an overview of the variety of stochastic phenomena which occur in Kaldor model forced by additive and parametric random noise. We study a generation of small- and large-amplitude stochastic oscillations, and their mixed-mode intermittency. To analyze these phenomena, we suggest a constructive approach combining the study of the peculiarities of deterministic phase portrait, and stochastic sensitivity of attractors. We show how parametric noise can stabilize the unstable equilibrium and transform dynamics of Kaldor system from order to chaos.
Stochastic resonance in bistable systems driven by harmonic noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neiman, A.; Schimansky-Geier, L.
1994-01-01
We study stochastic resonance in a bistable system which is excited simultaneously by white and harmonic noise which we understand as the signal. In our case the spectral line of the signal has a finite width as it occurs in many real situations. Using techniques of cumulant analysis as well as computer simulations we find that the effect of stochastic resonance is preserved in the case of harmonic noise excitation. Moreover we show that the width of the spectral line of the signal at the output can be decreased via stochastic resonance. The last could be of importance in the practical using of the stochastic resonance
Distinguishing signatures of determinism and stochasticity in spiking complex systems
Aragoneses, Andrés; Rubido, Nicolás; Tiana-Alsina, Jordi; Torrent, M. C.; Masoller, Cristina
2013-01-01
We describe a method to infer signatures of determinism and stochasticity in the sequence of apparently random intensity dropouts emitted by a semiconductor laser with optical feedback. The method uses ordinal time-series analysis to classify experimental data of inter-dropout-intervals (IDIs) in two categories that display statistically significant different features. Despite the apparent randomness of the dropout events, one IDI category is consistent with waiting times in a resting state until noise triggers a dropout, and the other is consistent with dropouts occurring during the return to the resting state, which have a clear deterministic component. The method we describe can be a powerful tool for inferring signatures of determinism in the dynamics of complex systems in noisy environments, at an event-level description of their dynamics.
Stochastic equations for complex systems theoretical and computational topics
Bessaih, Hakima
2015-01-01
Mathematical analyses and computational predictions of the behavior of complex systems are needed to effectively deal with weather and climate predictions, for example, and the optimal design of technical processes. Given the random nature of such systems and the recognized relevance of randomness, the equations used to describe such systems usually need to involve stochastics. The basic goal of this book is to introduce the mathematics and application of stochastic equations used for the modeling of complex systems. A first focus is on the introduction to different topics in mathematical analysis. A second focus is on the application of mathematical tools to the analysis of stochastic equations. A third focus is on the development and application of stochastic methods to simulate turbulent flows as seen in reality. This book is primarily oriented towards mathematics and engineering PhD students, young and experienced researchers, and professionals working in the area of stochastic differential equations ...
Stochastic stability of four-wheel-steering system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang Dongwei; Wang Hongli; Zhu Zhiwen; Feng Zhang
2007-01-01
A four-wheel-steering system subjected to white noise excitations was reduced to a two-degree-of-freedom quasi-non-integrable-Hamiltonian system. Subsequently we obtained an one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation for the averaged Hamiltonian of the system by using the stochastic averaging method for quasi-non-integrable-Hamiltonian systems. Thus, the stochastic stability of four-wheel-steering system was analyzed by analyzing the sample behaviors of the averaged Hamiltonian at the boundary H = 0 and calculating its Lyapunov exponent. An example given at the end demonstrated that the conclusion obtained is of considerable significance
Approaching complexity by stochastic methods: From biological systems to turbulence
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Friedrich, Rudolf [Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Muenster, D-48149 Muenster (Germany); Peinke, Joachim [Institute of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany); Sahimi, Muhammad [Mork Family Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-1211 (United States); Reza Rahimi Tabar, M., E-mail: mohammed.r.rahimi.tabar@uni-oldenburg.de [Department of Physics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran 11155-9161 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Institute of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany); Fachbereich Physik, Universitaet Osnabrueck, Barbarastrasse 7, 49076 Osnabrueck (Germany)
2011-09-15
This review addresses a central question in the field of complex systems: given a fluctuating (in time or space), sequentially measured set of experimental data, how should one analyze the data, assess their underlying trends, and discover the characteristics of the fluctuations that generate the experimental traces? In recent years, significant progress has been made in addressing this question for a class of stochastic processes that can be modeled by Langevin equations, including additive as well as multiplicative fluctuations or noise. Important results have emerged from the analysis of temporal data for such diverse fields as neuroscience, cardiology, finance, economy, surface science, turbulence, seismic time series and epileptic brain dynamics, to name but a few. Furthermore, it has been recognized that a similar approach can be applied to the data that depend on a length scale, such as velocity increments in fully developed turbulent flow, or height increments that characterize rough surfaces. A basic ingredient of the approach to the analysis of fluctuating data is the presence of a Markovian property, which can be detected in real systems above a certain time or length scale. This scale is referred to as the Markov-Einstein (ME) scale, and has turned out to be a useful characteristic of complex systems. We provide a review of the operational methods that have been developed for analyzing stochastic data in time and scale. We address in detail the following issues: (i) reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from data in terms of the Langevin equations or the corresponding Fokker-Planck equations and (ii) intermittency, cascades, and multiscale correlation functions.
Approaching complexity by stochastic methods: From biological systems to turbulence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Friedrich, Rudolf; Peinke, Joachim; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M.
2011-01-01
This review addresses a central question in the field of complex systems: given a fluctuating (in time or space), sequentially measured set of experimental data, how should one analyze the data, assess their underlying trends, and discover the characteristics of the fluctuations that generate the experimental traces? In recent years, significant progress has been made in addressing this question for a class of stochastic processes that can be modeled by Langevin equations, including additive as well as multiplicative fluctuations or noise. Important results have emerged from the analysis of temporal data for such diverse fields as neuroscience, cardiology, finance, economy, surface science, turbulence, seismic time series and epileptic brain dynamics, to name but a few. Furthermore, it has been recognized that a similar approach can be applied to the data that depend on a length scale, such as velocity increments in fully developed turbulent flow, or height increments that characterize rough surfaces. A basic ingredient of the approach to the analysis of fluctuating data is the presence of a Markovian property, which can be detected in real systems above a certain time or length scale. This scale is referred to as the Markov-Einstein (ME) scale, and has turned out to be a useful characteristic of complex systems. We provide a review of the operational methods that have been developed for analyzing stochastic data in time and scale. We address in detail the following issues: (i) reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from data in terms of the Langevin equations or the corresponding Fokker-Planck equations and (ii) intermittency, cascades, and multiscale correlation functions.
Numerical schemes for dynamically orthogonal equations of stochastic fluid and ocean flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ueckermann, M.P.; Lermusiaux, P.F.J.; Sapsis, T.P.
2013-01-01
The quantification of uncertainties is critical when systems are nonlinear and have uncertain terms in their governing equations or are constrained by limited knowledge of initial and boundary conditions. Such situations are common in multiscale, intermittent and non-homogeneous fluid and ocean flows. The dynamically orthogonal (DO) field equations provide an adaptive methodology to predict the probability density functions of such flows. The present work derives efficient computational schemes for the DO methodology applied to unsteady stochastic Navier–Stokes and Boussinesq equations, and illustrates and studies the numerical aspects of these schemes. Semi-implicit projection methods are developed for the mean and for the DO modes, and time-marching schemes of first to fourth order are used for the stochastic coefficients. Conservative second-order finite-volumes are employed in physical space with new advection schemes based on total variation diminishing methods. Other results include: (i) the definition of pseudo-stochastic pressures to obtain a number of pressure equations that is linear in the subspace size instead of quadratic; (ii) symmetric advection schemes for the stochastic velocities; (iii) the use of generalized inversion to deal with singular subspace covariances or deterministic modes; and (iv) schemes to maintain orthonormal modes at the numerical level. To verify our implementation and study the properties of our schemes and their variations, a set of stochastic flow benchmarks are defined including asymmetric Dirac and symmetric lock-exchange flows, lid-driven cavity flows, and flows past objects in a confined channel. Different Reynolds number and Grashof number regimes are employed to illustrate robustness. Optimal convergence under both time and space refinements is shown as well as the convergence of the probability density functions with the number of stochastic realizations.
Process theory for supervisory control of stochastic systems with data
Markovski, J.
2012-01-01
We propose a process theory for supervisory control of stochastic nondeterministic plants with data-based observations. The Markovian process theory with data relies on the notion of Markovian partial bisimulation to capture controllability of stochastic nondeterministic systems. It presents a
Review of "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bullinger Eric
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson introduces the peculiarities of stochastic modelling in biology. This book is particularly suited to as a textbook or for self-study, and for readers with a theoretical background.
Wang, Sheng; Wang, Linshan; Wei, Tengda
2018-04-01
This paper concerns the dynamics of a stochastic predator-prey system with Markovian switching and Lévy noise. First, the existence and uniqueness of global positive solution to the system is proved. Then, by combining stochastic analytical techniques with M-matrix analysis, sufficient conditions of stochastic permanence and extinction are obtained. Furthermore, for the stochastic permanence case, by means of four constants related to the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain and the parameters of the subsystems, both the superior limit and the inferior limit of the average in time of the sample path of the solution are estimated. Finally, our conclusions are illustrated through an example.
GPELab, a Matlab toolbox to solve Gross-Pitaevskii equations II: Dynamics and stochastic simulations
Antoine, Xavier; Duboscq, Romain
2015-08-01
GPELab is a free Matlab toolbox for modeling and numerically solving large classes of systems of Gross-Pitaevskii equations that arise in the physics of Bose-Einstein condensates. The aim of this second paper, which follows (Antoine and Duboscq, 2014), is to first present the various pseudospectral schemes available in GPELab for computing the deterministic and stochastic nonlinear dynamics of Gross-Pitaevskii equations (Antoine, et al., 2013). Next, the corresponding GPELab functions are explained in detail. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show how the code works for the complex dynamics of BEC problems.
Numerical analysis of systems of ordinary and stochastic differential equations
Artemiev, S S
1997-01-01
This text deals with numerical analysis of systems of both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. It covers numerical solution problems of the Cauchy problem for stiff ordinary differential equations (ODE) systems by Rosenbrock-type methods (RTMs).
Formal Abstractions for Automated Verification and Synthesis of Stochastic Systems
Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, S.
2014-01-01
Stochastic hybrid systems involve the coupling of discrete, continuous, and probabilistic phenomena, in which the composition of continuous and discrete variables captures the behavior of physical systems interacting with digital, computational devices. Because of their versatility and generality,
Stochastic dynamics for two biological species and ecological niches
Ruziska, Flávia M.; Arashiro, Everaldo; Tomé, Tânia
2018-01-01
We consider an ecological system in which two species interact with two niches. To this end we introduce a stochastic model with four states. Our analysis is founded in three approaches: Monte Carlo simulations of the model on a square lattice, mean-field approximation, and birth and death master equation. From this last approach we obtain a description in terms of Langevin equations which show in an explicit way the role of noise in population biology. We focus mainly on the description of time oscillations of the species population and the alternating dominance between them. The model treated here may provide insights on these properties.
Dynamic analysis of a stochastic rumor propagation model
Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying
2018-01-01
The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, leads rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic rumor propagation model. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the rumor are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the rumor is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.
A Class of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with State-Dependent Switching Noise
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Leth, John-Josef; Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Schiøler, Henrik
2012-01-01
In this paper, we develop theoretical results based on a proposed method for modeling switching noise for a class of hybrid systems with piecewise linear partitioned state space, and state-depending switching. We devise a stochastic model of such systems, whose global dynamics is governed...
Hopf Bifurcation Analysis for a Stochastic Discrete-Time Hyperchaotic System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Ran
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of a discrete-time hyperchaotic system and the amplitude control of Hopf bifurcation for a stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system are investigated in this paper. Numerical simulations are presented to exhibit the complex dynamical behaviors in the discrete-time hyperchaotic system. Furthermore, the stochastic discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random parameters is transformed into its equivalent deterministic system with the orthogonal polynomial theory of discrete random function. In addition, the dynamical features of the discrete-time hyperchaotic system with random disturbances are obtained through its equivalent deterministic system. By using the Hopf bifurcation conditions of the deterministic discrete-time system, the specific conditions for the existence of Hopf bifurcation in the equivalent deterministic system are derived. And the amplitude control with random intensity is discussed in detail. Finally, the feasibility of the control method is demonstrated by numerical simulations.
The sequence relay selection strategy based on stochastic dynamic programming
Zhu, Rui; Chen, Xihao; Huang, Yangchao
2017-07-01
Relay-assisted (RA) network with relay node selection is a kind of effective method to improve the channel capacity and convergence performance. However, most of the existing researches about the relay selection did not consider the statically channel state information and the selection cost. This shortage limited the performance and application of RA network in practical scenarios. In order to overcome this drawback, a sequence relay selection strategy (SRSS) was proposed. And the performance upper bound of SRSS was also analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, in order to make SRSS more practical, a novel threshold determination algorithm based on the stochastic dynamic program (SDP) was given to work with SRSS. Numerical results are also presented to exhibit the performance of SRSS with SDP.
Stochastic ℋ∞ Finite-Time Control of Discrete-Time Systems with Packet Loss
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yingqi Zhang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the stochastic finite-time stabilization and ℋ∞ control problem for one family of linear discrete-time systems over networks with packet loss, parametric uncertainties, and time-varying norm-bounded disturbance. Firstly, the dynamic model description studied is given, which, if the packet dropout is assumed to be a discrete-time homogenous Markov process, the class of discrete-time linear systems with packet loss can be regarded as Markovian jump systems. Based on Lyapunov function approach, sufficient conditions are established for the resulting closed-loop discrete-time system with Markovian jumps to be stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness and then state feedback controllers are designed to guarantee stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time stabilization of the class of stochastic systems. The stochastic ℋ∞ finite-time boundedness criteria can be tackled in the form of linear matrix inequalities with a fixed parameter. As an auxiliary result, we also give sufficient conditions on the robust stochastic stabilization of the class of linear systems with packet loss. Finally, simulation examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the developed scheme.
The stochastic dynamics of intermittent porescale particle motion
Dentz, Marco; Morales, Veronica; Puyguiraud, Alexandre; Gouze, Philippe; Willmann, Matthias; Holzner, Markus
2017-04-01
Numerical and experimental data for porescale particle dynamics show intermittent patterns in Lagrangian velocities and accelerations, which manifest in long time intervals of low and short durations of high velocities [1, 2]. This phenomenon is due to the spatial persistence of particle velocities on characteristic heterogeneity length scales. In order to systematically quantify these behaviors and extract the stochastic dynamics of particle motion, we focus on the analysis of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along trajectories [3]. This method removes the intermittency observed under isochrone sampling. The space-Lagrangian velocity series can be quantified by a Markov process that is continuous in distance along streamline. It is fully parameterized in terms of the flux-weighted Eulerian velocity PDF and the characteristic pore-length. The resulting stochastic particle motion describes a continuous time random walk (CTRW). This approach allows for the process based interpretation of experimental and numerical porescale velocity, acceleration and displacement data. It provides a framework for the characterization and upscaling of particle transport and dispersion from the pore to the Darcy-scale based on the medium geometry and Eulerian flow attributes. [1] P. De Anna, T. Le Borgne, M. Dentz, A.M. Tartakovsky, D. Bolster, and P. Davy, "Flow intermittency, dispersion, and correlated continuous time random walks in porous media," Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 184502 (2013). [2] M. Holzner, V. L. Morales, M. Willmann, and M. Dentz, "Intermittent Lagrangian velocities and accelerations in three- dimensional porous medium flow," Phys. Rev. E 92, 013015 (2015). [3] M. Dentz, P. K. Kang, A. Comolli, T. Le Borgne, and D. R. Lester, "Continuous time random walks for the evolution of Lagrangian velocities," Phys. Rev. Fluids (2016).
Generalization of uncertainty relation for quantum and stochastic systems
Koide, T.; Kodama, T.
2018-06-01
The generalized uncertainty relation applicable to quantum and stochastic systems is derived within the stochastic variational method. This relation not only reproduces the well-known inequality in quantum mechanics but also is applicable to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation, showing that the finite minimum uncertainty between the position and the momentum is not an inherent property of quantum mechanics but a common feature of stochastic systems. We further discuss the possible implication of the present study in discussing the application of the hydrodynamic picture to microscopic systems, like relativistic heavy-ion collisions.
Stochastic linear hybrid systems: Modeling, estimation, and application
Seah, Chze Eng
Hybrid systems are dynamical systems which have interacting continuous state and discrete state (or mode). Accurate modeling and state estimation of hybrid systems are important in many applications. We propose a hybrid system model, known as the Stochastic Linear Hybrid System (SLHS), to describe hybrid systems with stochastic linear system dynamics in each mode and stochastic continuous-state-dependent mode transitions. We then develop a hybrid estimation algorithm, called the State-Dependent-Transition Hybrid Estimation (SDTHE) algorithm, to estimate the continuous state and discrete state of the SLHS from noisy measurements. It is shown that the SDTHE algorithm is more accurate or more computationally efficient than existing hybrid estimation algorithms. Next, we develop a performance analysis algorithm to evaluate the performance of the SDTHE algorithm in a given operating scenario. We also investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of the SDTHE algorithm. The proposed SLHS model and SDTHE algorithm are illustrated to be useful in several applications. In Air Traffic Control (ATC), to facilitate implementations of new efficient operational concepts, accurate modeling and estimation of aircraft trajectories are needed. In ATC, an aircraft's trajectory can be divided into a number of flight modes. Furthermore, as the aircraft is required to follow a given flight plan or clearance, its flight mode transitions are dependent of its continuous state. However, the flight mode transitions are also stochastic due to navigation uncertainties or unknown pilot intents. Thus, we develop an aircraft dynamics model in ATC based on the SLHS. The SDTHE algorithm is then used in aircraft tracking applications to estimate the positions/velocities of aircraft and their flight modes accurately. Next, we develop an aircraft conformance monitoring algorithm to detect any deviations of aircraft trajectories in ATC that might compromise safety. In this application, the SLHS
Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr
2017-12-01
Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.
Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr
2017-12-21
Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.
The stochastic dynamics of tethered microcantilevers in a viscous fluid
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Robbins, Brian A.; Paul, Mark R. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Radiom, Milad; Ducker, William A. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Walz, John Y. [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40506 (United States)
2014-10-28
We explore and quantify the coupled dynamics of a pair of micron scale cantilevers immersed in a viscous fluid that are also directly tethered to one another at their tips by a spring force. The spring force, for example, could represent the molecular stiffness or elasticity of a biomolecule or material tethered between the cantilevers. We use deterministic numerical simulations with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem to compute the stochastic dynamics of the cantilever pair for the conditions of experiment when driven only by Brownian motion. We validate our approach by comparing directly with experimental measurements in the absence of the tether which shows excellent agreement. Using numerical simulations, we quantify the correlated dynamics of the cantilever pair over a range of tether stiffness. Our results quantify the sensitivity of the auto- and cross-correlations of equilibrium fluctuations in cantilever displacement to the stiffness of the tether. We show that the tether affects the magnitude of the correlations which can be used in a measurement to probe the properties of an attached tethering substance. For the configurations of current interest using micron scale cantilevers in water, we show that the magnitude of the fluid coupling between the cantilevers is sufficiently small such that the influence of the tether can be significant. Our results show that the cross-correlation is more sensitive to tether stiffness than the auto-correlation indicating that a two-cantilever measurement has improved sensitivity when compared with a measurement using a single cantilever.
A stochastic perturbation theory for non-autonomous systems
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Moon, W., E-mail: wm275@damtp.cam.ac.uk [Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8109 (United States); Wettlaufer, J. S., E-mail: wettlaufer@maths.ox.ac.uk [Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8109 (United States); Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom)
2013-12-15
We develop a perturbation theory for a class of first order nonlinear non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equations that arise in climate physics. The perturbative procedure produces moments in terms of integral delay equations, whose order by order decay is characterized in a Floquet-like sense. Both additive and multiplicative sources of noise are discussed and the question of how the nature of the noise influences the results is addressed theoretically and numerically. By invoking the Martingale property, we rationalize the transformation of the underlying Stratonovich form of the model to an Ito form, independent of whether the noise is additive or multiplicative. The generality of the analysis is demonstrated by developing it both for a Brownian particle moving in a periodically forced quartic potential, which acts as a simple model of stochastic resonance, as well as for our more complex climate physics model. The validity of the approach is shown by comparison with numerical solutions. The particular climate dynamics problem upon which we focus involves a low-order model for the evolution of Arctic sea ice under the influence of increasing greenhouse gas forcing ΔF{sub 0}. The deterministic model, developed by Eisenman and Wettlaufer [“Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106(1), 28–32 (2009)] exhibits several transitions as ΔF{sub 0} increases and the stochastic analysis is used to understand the manner in which noise influences these transitions and the stability of the system.
Adaptive control of chaotic systems with stochastic time varying unknown parameters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Salarieh, Hassan [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: salarieh@mech.sharif.edu; Alasty, Aria [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Azadi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: aalasti@sharif.edu
2008-10-15
In this paper based on the Lyapunov stability theorem, an adaptive control scheme is proposed for stabilizing the unstable periodic orbits (UPO) of chaotic systems. It is assumed that the chaotic system has some linearly dependent unknown parameters which are stochastically time varying. The stochastic parameters are modeled through the Weiner process derivative. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique it has been applied to the Lorenz, Chen and Rossler dynamical systems, as some case studies. Simulation results indicate that the proposed adaptive controller has a high performance in stabilizing the UPO of chaotic systems in noisy environment.
Cotter, C J; Gottwald, G A; Holm, D D
2017-09-01
In Holm (Holm 2015 Proc. R. Soc. A 471 , 20140963. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2014.0963)), stochastic fluid equations were derived by employing a variational principle with an assumed stochastic Lagrangian particle dynamics. Here we show that the same stochastic Lagrangian dynamics naturally arises in a multi-scale decomposition of the deterministic Lagrangian flow map into a slow large-scale mean and a rapidly fluctuating small-scale map. We employ homogenization theory to derive effective slow stochastic particle dynamics for the resolved mean part, thereby obtaining stochastic fluid partial equations in the Eulerian formulation. To justify the application of rigorous homogenization theory, we assume mildly chaotic fast small-scale dynamics, as well as a centring condition. The latter requires that the mean of the fluctuating deviations is small, when pulled back to the mean flow.
Morecroft, John
System dynamics is an approach for thinking about and simulating situations and organisations of all kinds and sizes by visualising how the elements fit together, interact and change over time. This chapter, written by John Morecroft, describes modern system dynamics which retains the fundamentals developed in the 1950s by Jay W. Forrester of the MIT Sloan School of Management. It looks at feedback loops and time delays that affect system behaviour in a non-linear way, and illustrates how dynamic behaviour depends upon feedback loop structures. It also recognises improvements as part of the ongoing process of managing a situation in order to achieve goals. Significantly it recognises the importance of context, and practitioner skills. Feedback systems thinking views problems and solutions as being intertwined. The main concepts and tools: feedback structure and behaviour, causal loop diagrams, dynamics, are practically illustrated in a wide variety of contexts from a hot water shower through to a symphony orchestra and the practical application of the approach is described through several real examples of its use for strategic planning and evaluation.
Distributed Fault Detection for a Class of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bingyong Yan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A novel distributed fault detection strategy for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems is presented. Different from the existing design procedures for fault detection, a novel fault detection observer, which consists of a nonlinear fault detection filter and a consensus filter, is proposed to detect the nonlinear stochastic systems faults. Firstly, the outputs of the nonlinear stochastic systems act as inputs of a consensus filter. Secondly, a nonlinear fault detection filter is constructed to provide estimation of unmeasurable system states and residual signals using outputs of the consensus filter. Stability analysis of the consensus filter is rigorously investigated. Meanwhile, the design procedures of the nonlinear fault detection filter are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Taking the influence of the system stochastic noises into consideration, an outstanding feature of the proposed scheme is that false alarms can be reduced dramatically. Finally, simulation results are provided to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed fault detection approach.
Barthel, Thomas; De Bacco, Caterina; Franz, Silvio
2018-01-01
We introduce and apply an efficient method for the precise simulation of stochastic dynamical processes on locally treelike graphs. Networks with cycles are treated in the framework of the cavity method. Such models correspond, for example, to spin-glass systems, Boolean networks, neural networks, or other technological, biological, and social networks. Building upon ideas from quantum many-body theory, our approach is based on a matrix product approximation of the so-called edge messages—conditional probabilities of vertex variable trajectories. Computation costs and accuracy can be tuned by controlling the matrix dimensions of the matrix product edge messages (MPEM) in truncations. In contrast to Monte Carlo simulations, the algorithm has a better error scaling and works for both single instances as well as the thermodynamic limit. We employ it to examine prototypical nonequilibrium Glauber dynamics in the kinetic Ising model. Because of the absence of cancellation effects, observables with small expectation values can be evaluated accurately, allowing for the study of decay processes and temporal correlations.
Birkhoff, George D
1927-01-01
His research in dynamics constitutes the middle period of Birkhoff's scientific career, that of maturity and greatest power. -Yearbook of the American Philosophical Society The author's great book€¦is well known to all, and the diverse active modern developments in mathematics which have been inspired by this volume bear the most eloquent testimony to its quality and influence. -Zentralblatt MATH In 1927, G. D. Birkhoff wrote a remarkable treatise on the theory of dynamical systems that would inspire many later mathematicians to do great work. To a large extent, Birkhoff was writing about his o
Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bokanowski, Olivier; Picarelli, Athena; Zidani, Hasnaa
2015-01-01
This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach
Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bokanowski, Olivier, E-mail: boka@math.jussieu.fr [Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, Université Paris-Diderot (Paris 7) UFR de Mathématiques - Bât. Sophie Germain (France); Picarelli, Athena, E-mail: athena.picarelli@inria.fr [Projet Commands, INRIA Saclay & ENSTA ParisTech (France); Zidani, Hasnaa, E-mail: hasnaa.zidani@ensta.fr [Unité de Mathématiques appliquées (UMA), ENSTA ParisTech (France)
2015-02-15
This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach.
Stochastic differential equations for quantum dynamics of spin-boson networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mandt, Stephan; Sadri, Darius; Houck, Andrew A; Türeci, Hakan E
2015-01-01
A popular approach in quantum optics is to map a master equation to a stochastic differential equation, where quantum effects manifest themselves through noise terms. We generalize this approach based on the positive-P representation to systems involving spin, in particular networks or lattices of interacting spins and bosons. We test our approach on a driven dimer of spins and photons, compare it to the master equation, and predict a novel dynamic phase transition in this system. Our numerical approach has scaling advantages over existing methods, but typically requires regularization in terms of drive and dissipation. (paper)
A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics
Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James
2013-04-01
Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.
A decoupled approach to filter design for stochastic systems
Barbata, A.; Zasadzinski, M.; Ali, H. Souley; Messaoud, H.
2016-08-01
This paper presents a new theorem to guarantee the almost sure exponential stability for a class of stochastic triangular systems by studying only the stability of each diagonal subsystems. This result allows to solve the filtering problem of the stochastic systems with multiplicative noises by using the almost sure exponential stability concept. Two kinds of observers are treated: the full-order and reduced-order cases.
Stochastic chemical kinetics theory and (mostly) systems biological applications
Érdi, Péter; Lente, Gabor
2014-01-01
This volume reviews the theory and simulation methods of stochastic kinetics by integrating historical and recent perspectives, presents applications, mostly in the context of systems biology and also in combustion theory. In recent years, due to the development in experimental techniques, such as optical imaging, single cell analysis, and fluorescence spectroscopy, biochemical kinetic data inside single living cells have increasingly been available. The emergence of systems biology brought renaissance in the application of stochastic kinetic methods.
Stochastic systems with cross-correlated Gaussian white noises
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Cheng-Yu; Song Yu-Min; Zhou Peng; Yang Hai; Gao Yun
2010-01-01
This paper theoretically investigates three stochastic systems with cross-correlation Gaussian white noises. Both steady state properties of the stochastic nonlinear systems and the nonequilibrium transitions induced by the cross-correlated noises are studied. The stationary solutions of the Fokker—Planck equation for three specific examples are analysed. It is shown explicitly that the cross-correlation of white noises can induce nonequilibrium transitions
Patterns of Stochastic Behavior in Dynamically Unstable High-Dimensional Biochemical Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simon Rosenfeld
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The question of dynamical stability and stochastic behavior of large biochemical networks is discussed. It is argued that stringent conditions of asymptotic stability have very little chance to materialize in a multidimensional system described by the differential equations of chemical kinetics. The reason is that the criteria of asymptotic stability (Routh- Hurwitz, Lyapunov criteria, Feinberg’s Deficiency Zero theorem would impose the limitations of very high algebraic order on the kinetic rates and stoichiometric coefficients, and there are no natural laws that would guarantee their unconditional validity. Highly nonlinear, dynamically unstable systems, however, are not necessarily doomed to collapse, as a simple Jacobian analysis would suggest. It is possible that their dynamics may assume the form of pseudo-random fluctuations quite similar to a shot noise, and, therefore, their behavior may be described in terms of Langevin and Fokker-Plank equations. We have shown by simulation that the resulting pseudo-stochastic processes obey the heavy-tailed Generalized Pareto Distribution with temporal sequence of pulses forming the set of constituent-specific Poisson processes. Being applied to intracellular dynamics, these properties are naturally associated with burstiness, a well documented phenomenon in the biology of gene expression.
Control of Networked Traffic Flow Distribution - A Stochastic Distribution System Perspective
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Aziz, H M Abdul [ORNL; Young, Stan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Patil, Sagar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
2017-10-01
Networked traffic flow is a common scenario for urban transportation, where the distribution of vehicle queues either at controlled intersections or highway segments reflect the smoothness of the traffic flow in the network. At signalized intersections, the traffic queues are controlled by traffic signal control settings and effective traffic lights control would realize both smooth traffic flow and minimize fuel consumption. Funded by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) program of the Vehicle Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy, we performed a preliminary investigation on the modelling and control framework in context of urban network of signalized intersections. In specific, we developed a recursive input-output traffic queueing models. The queue formation can be modeled as a stochastic process where the number of vehicles entering each intersection is a random number. Further, we proposed a preliminary B-Spline stochastic model for a one-way single-lane corridor traffic system based on theory of stochastic distribution control.. It has been shown that the developed stochastic model would provide the optimal probability density function (PDF) of the traffic queueing length as a dynamic function of the traffic signal setting parameters. Based upon such a stochastic distribution model, we have proposed a preliminary closed loop framework on stochastic distribution control for the traffic queueing system to make the traffic queueing length PDF follow a target PDF that potentially realizes the smooth traffic flow distribution in a concerned corridor.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa
2009-01-01
A standard approach to analysis of noise-induced effects in stochastic dynamics assumes a Gaussian character of the noise term describing interaction of the analyzed system with its complex surroundings. An additional assumption about the existence of timescale separation between the dynamics of the measured observable and the typical timescale of the noise allows external fluctuations to be modeled as temporally uncorrelated and therefore white. However, in many natural phenomena the assumptions concerning the above mentioned properties of 'Gaussianity' and 'whiteness' of the noise can be violated. In this context, in contrast to the spatiotemporal coupling characterizing general forms of non-Markovian or semi-Markovian Lévy walks, so called Lévy flights correspond to the class of Markov processes which can still be interpreted as white, but distributed according to a more general, infinitely divisible, stable and non-Gaussian law. Lévy noise-driven non-equilibrium systems are known to manifest interesting physical properties and have been addressed in various scenarios of physical transport exhibiting a superdiffusive behavior. Here we present a brief overview of our recent investigations aimed at understanding features of stochastic dynamics under the influence of Lévy white noise perturbations. We find that the archetypal phenomena of noise-induced ordering are robust and can be detected also in systems driven by memoryless, non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed fluctuations with infinite variance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, Zhi-Wen; Zhang, Qing-Xin; Xu, Jia
2014-01-01
A kind of shape memory alloy (SMA) hysteretic nonlinear model was developed, and the nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation characteristics of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation were investigated. Van der Pol difference item was introduced to describe the hysteretic phenomena of the SMA strain–stress curves, and the nonlinear dynamic model of the SMA thin film subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation was developed. The conditions of global stochastic stability of the system were determined in singular boundary theory, and the probability density function of the system response was obtained. Finally, the conditions of stochastic Hopf bifurcation were analyzed. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation indicate that self-excited vibration is induced by the hysteretic nonlinear characteristics of SMA, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears when the bifurcation parameter was changed; there are two limit cycles in the stationary probability density of the dynamic response of the system in some cases, which means that there are two vibration amplitudes whose probabilities are both very high, and jumping phenomena between the two vibration amplitudes appear with the change in conditions. The results obtained in this current paper are helpful for the application of the SMA thin film in stochastic vibration fields. - Highlights: • Hysteretic nonlinear model of shape memory alloy was developed. • Van der Pol item was introduced to interpret hysteretic strain–stress curves. • Nonlinear dynamic characteristics of the shape memory alloy film were analyzed. • Jumping phenomena were observed in the change of the parameters
The response analysis of fractional-order stochastic system via generalized cell mapping method.
Wang, Liang; Xue, Lili; Sun, Chunyan; Yue, Xiaole; Xu, Wei
2018-01-01
This paper is concerned with the response of a fractional-order stochastic system. The short memory principle is introduced to ensure that the response of the system is a Markov process. The generalized cell mapping method is applied to display the global dynamics of the noise-free system, such as attractors, basins of attraction, basin boundary, saddle, and invariant manifolds. The stochastic generalized cell mapping method is employed to obtain the evolutionary process of probability density functions of the response. The fractional-order ϕ 6 oscillator and the fractional-order smooth and discontinuous oscillator are taken as examples to give the implementations of our strategies. Studies have shown that the evolutionary direction of the probability density function of the fractional-order stochastic system is consistent with the unstable manifold. The effectiveness of the method is confirmed using Monte Carlo results.
A fuzzy-stochastic power system planning model: Reflection of dual objectives and dual uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, X.Y.; Huang, G.H.; Zhu, H.; Li, Y.P.
2017-01-01
In this study, a fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed for supporting sustainable management of electric power system (EPS) under dual uncertainties. As an improvement upon the mixed-integer linear fractional programming, FSDFP can not only tackle multi-objective issues effectively without setting weights, but also can deal with uncertain parameters which have both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. Thus, the developed method can help provide valuable information for supporting capacity-expansion planning and in-depth policy analysis of EPS management problems. For demonstrating these advantages, FSDFP has been applied to a case study of a typical regional EPS planning, where the decision makers have to deal with conflicts between economic development that maximizes the system profit and environmental protection that minimizes the carbon dioxide emissions. The obtained results can be analyzed to generate several decision alternatives, and can then help decision makers make suitable decisions under different input scenarios. Furthermore, comparisons of the solution from FSDFP method with that from fuzzy stochastic dynamic linear programming, linear fractional programming and dynamic stochastic fractional programming methods are undertaken. The contrastive analysis reveals that FSDFP is a more effective approach that can better characterize the complexities and uncertainties of real EPS management problems. - Highlights: • A fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed. • FSDFP can address multiple conflicting objectives without setting weights. • FSDFP can reflect dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. • Some reasonable solutions for a case of power system sustainable planning are generated. • Comparisons of the solutions from FSDFP with other optimization methods are undertaken.
Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-11-03
We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.
A numerical scheme for optimal transition paths of stochastic chemical kinetic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Di
2008-01-01
We present a new framework for finding the optimal transition paths of metastable stochastic chemical kinetic systems with large system size. The optimal transition paths are identified to be the most probable paths according to the Large Deviation Theory of stochastic processes. Dynamical equations for the optimal transition paths are derived using the variational principle. A modified Minimum Action Method (MAM) is proposed as a numerical scheme to solve the optimal transition paths. Applications to Gene Regulatory Networks such as the toggle switch model and the Lactose Operon Model in Escherichia coli are presented as numerical examples
Stochastic bosonization for a d ≥ 3 Fermi system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Accardi, L.; Lu, Y.G.; Mastropietro, V.
1997-01-01
We consider a system of fermions interacting via an external field and we prove, in d ≥ 3, that a suitable collective operator, bilinear in the fermionic fields, in the stochastic limit becomes a boson quantum brownian motion. The evolution operator after the limit satisfies a quantum stochastic differential equation, in which the imaginary part of the Ito correction is the ground state shift while its real part is the lifetime of the ground state. (orig.)
Extension of Nelson's stochastic quantization to finite temperature using thermo field dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kobayashi, K.; Yamanaka, Y.
2011-01-01
We present an extension of Nelson's stochastic quantum mechanics to finite temperature. Utilizing the formulation of Thermo Field Dynamics (TFD), we can show that Ito's stochastic equations for tilde and non-tilde particle positions reproduce the TFD-type Schroedinger equation which is equivalent to the Liouville-von Neumann equation. In our formalism, the drift terms in the Ito's stochastic equation have the temperature dependence and the thermal fluctuation is induced through the correlation of the non-tilde and tilde particles. We show that our formalism satisfies the position-momentum uncertainty relation at finite temperature. -- Highlights: → Utilizing TFD, we extend Nelson's stochastic method to finite temperature. → We introduce stochastic equations for tilde and non-tilde particles. → Our stochastic equations can reproduce the TFD-type Schroedinger equation. → Our formalism satisfies the uncertainly relation at finite temperature.
Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process
Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.
2018-03-01
Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghirardi, G.C.; Pearle, P.
1991-02-01
The problem of getting a relativistic generalization of the CSL dynamical reduction model, which has been presented in part I, is discussed. In so doing we have the opportunity to introduce the idea of a stochastically invariant theory. The theoretical model we present, that satisfies this kind of invariance requirement, offers us the possibility to reconsider, from a new point of view, some conceptually relevant issues such as nonlocality, the legitimacy of attributing elements of physical reality to physical systems and the problem of establishing causal relations between physical events. (author). Refs, 3 figs
The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process
Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko
2012-06-01
A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.
Advanced Dynamically Adaptive Algorithms for Stochastic Simulations on Extreme Scales
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xiu, Dongbin [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
2017-03-03
The focus of the project is the development of mathematical methods and high-performance computational tools for stochastic simulations, with a particular emphasis on computations on extreme scales. The core of the project revolves around the design of highly efficient and scalable numerical algorithms that can adaptively and accurately, in high dimensional spaces, resolve stochastic problems with limited smoothness, even containing discontinuities.
Constant-pH molecular dynamics using stochastic titration
Baptista, António M.; Teixeira, Vitor H.; Soares, Cláudio M.
2002-09-01
A new method is proposed for performing constant-pH molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, that is, MD simulations where pH is one of the external thermodynamic parameters, like the temperature or the pressure. The protonation state of each titrable site in the solute is allowed to change during a molecular mechanics (MM) MD simulation, the new states being obtained from a combination of continuum electrostatics (CE) calculations and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of protonation equilibrium. The coupling between the MM/MD and CE/MC algorithms is done in a way that ensures a proper Markov chain, sampling from the intended semigrand canonical distribution. This stochastic titration method is applied to succinic acid, aimed at illustrating the method and examining the choice of its adjustable parameters. The complete titration of succinic acid, using constant-pH MD simulations at different pH values, gives a clear picture of the coupling between the trans/gauche isomerization and the protonation process, making it possible to reconcile some apparently contradictory results of previous studies. The present constant-pH MD method is shown to require a moderate increase of computational cost when compared to the usual MD method.
Stochastic Dynamics of Clay Translocation and Formation of Argillic Horizons
Calabrese, S.; Richter, D. D., Jr.; Porporato, A. M.
2017-12-01
The formation of argillic horizons in vertical soil profiles is mainly attributed to lessivage, namely the transport of clay from an upper E horizon to a deeper illuviated horizon. Because of the long timescales involved in this phenomenon, quantitative modeling is useful to explore the role of clay lessivage on soil formation and sub-surface clay accumulation. The limitations of detailed models of colloidal transport to short timescales make it necessary to resort to simple models. Here, we present a parsimonious model of clay transport in which lessivage is interpreted stochastically. Clay particles approach the soil surface at a speed equal to the erosion rate and are intermittently transported to deeper soil layers when percolation events occur or removed by erosion. Along with the evolution of clay particles trajectories, the model predicts the vertical clay profile, the depth of the B horizon, and the mean time to erosion. Dimensional analysis reveals the two dimensionless parameters governing the dynamics, leading to a new classification of soil types based on erosion rates and intensity of lessivage.
Stochastic Rotation Dynamics simulations of wetting multi-phase flows
Hiller, Thomas; Sanchez de La Lama, Marta; Brinkmann, Martin
2016-06-01
Multi-color Stochastic Rotation Dynamics (SRDmc) has been introduced by Inoue et al. [1,2] as a particle based simulation method to study the flow of emulsion droplets in non-wetting microchannels. In this work, we extend the multi-color method to also account for different wetting conditions. This is achieved by assigning the color information not only to fluid particles but also to virtual wall particles that are required to enforce proper no-slip boundary conditions. To extend the scope of the original SRDmc algorithm to e.g. immiscible two-phase flow with viscosity contrast we implement an angular momentum conserving scheme (SRD+mc). We perform extensive benchmark simulations to show that a mono-phase SRDmc fluid exhibits bulk properties identical to a standard SRD fluid and that SRDmc fluids are applicable to a wide range of immiscible two-phase flows. To quantify the adhesion of a SRD+mc fluid in contact to the walls we measure the apparent contact angle from sessile droplets in mechanical equilibrium. For a further verification of our wettability implementation we compare the dewetting of a liquid film from a wetting stripe to experimental and numerical studies of interfacial morphologies on chemically structured surfaces.
Stochastic differential equations and a biological system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wang, Chunyan
1994-01-01
The purpose of this Ph.D. study is to explore the property of a growth process. The study includes solving and simulating of the growth process which is described in terms of stochastic differential equations. The identification of the growth and variability parameters of the process based...... on experimental data is considered. As an example, the growth of bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens is taken. Due to the specific features of stochastic differential equations, namely that their solutions do not exist in the general sense, two new integrals - the Ito integral and the Stratonovich integral - have...... description. In order to identify the parameters, a Maximum likelihood estimation method is used together with a simplified truncated second order filter. Because of the continuity feature of the predictor equation, two numerical integration methods, called the Odeint and the Discretization method...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chorošajev, Vladimir [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Gelzinis, Andrius; Valkunas, Leonas [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Department of Molecular Compound Physics, Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Sauletekio 3, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Abramavicius, Darius, E-mail: darius.abramavicius@ff.vu.lt [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania)
2016-12-20
Highlights: • The Davydov ansatze can be used for finite temperature simulations with an extension. • The accuracy is high if the system is strongly coupled to the environmental phonons. • The approach can simulate time-resolved fluorescence spectra. - Abstract: Time dependent variational approach is a convenient method to characterize the excitation dynamics in molecular aggregates for different strengths of system-bath interaction a, which does not require any additional perturbative schemes. Until recently, however, this method was only applicable in zero temperature case. It has become possible to extend this method for finite temperatures with the introduction of stochastic time dependent variational approach. Here we present a comparison between this approach and the exact hierarchical equations of motion approach for describing excitation dynamics in a broad range of temperatures. We calculate electronic population evolution, absorption and auxiliary time resolved fluorescence spectra in different regimes and find that the stochastic approach shows excellent agreement with the exact approach when the system-bath coupling is sufficiently large and temperatures are high. The differences between the two methods are larger, when temperatures are lower or the system-bath coupling is small.
A constrained approach to multiscale stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems
Cotter, Simon L.
2011-01-01
Stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions is often computationally intensive, especially if a chemical system contains reactions occurring on different time scales. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale methodology suitable to address this problem, assuming that the evolution of the slow species in the system is well approximated by a Langevin process. It is based on the conditional stochastic simulation algorithm (CSSA) which samples from the conditional distribution of the suitably defined fast variables, given values for the slow variables. In the constrained multiscale algorithm (CMA) a single realization of the CSSA is then used for each value of the slow variable to approximate the effective drift and diffusion terms, in a similar manner to the constrained mean-force computations in other applications such as molecular dynamics. We then show how using the ensuing Fokker-Planck equation approximation, we can in turn approximate average switching times in stochastic chemical systems. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.
A stochastic agent-based model of pathogen propagation in dynamic multi-relational social networks
Khan, Bilal; Dombrowski, Kirk; Saad, Mohamed
2015-01-01
We describe a general framework for modeling and stochastic simulation of epidemics in realistic dynamic social networks, which incorporates heterogeneity in the types of individuals, types of interconnecting risk-bearing relationships, and types of pathogens transmitted across them. Dynamism is supported through arrival and departure processes, continuous restructuring of risk relationships, and changes to pathogen infectiousness, as mandated by natural history; dynamism is regulated through constraints on the local agency of individual nodes and their risk behaviors, while simulation trajectories are validated using system-wide metrics. To illustrate its utility, we present a case study that applies the proposed framework towards a simulation of HIV in artificial networks of intravenous drug users (IDUs) modeled using data collected in the Social Factors for HIV Risk survey. PMID:25859056
Distributed parallel computing in stochastic modeling of groundwater systems.
Dong, Yanhui; Li, Guomin; Xu, Haizhen
2013-03-01
Stochastic modeling is a rapidly evolving, popular approach to the study of the uncertainty and heterogeneity of groundwater systems. However, the use of Monte Carlo-type simulations to solve practical groundwater problems often encounters computational bottlenecks that hinder the acquisition of meaningful results. To improve the computational efficiency, a system that combines stochastic model generation with MODFLOW-related programs and distributed parallel processing is investigated. The distributed computing framework, called the Java Parallel Processing Framework, is integrated into the system to allow the batch processing of stochastic models in distributed and parallel systems. As an example, the system is applied to the stochastic delineation of well capture zones in the Pinggu Basin in Beijing. Through the use of 50 processing threads on a cluster with 10 multicore nodes, the execution times of 500 realizations are reduced to 3% compared with those of a serial execution. Through this application, the system demonstrates its potential in solving difficult computational problems in practical stochastic modeling. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.
Stochastic Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Wind Integration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. D. Le
2018-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we present an optimal capacity decision model for energy storage systems (ESSs in combined operation with wind energy in power systems. We use a two-stage stochastic programming approach to take into account both wind and load uncertainties. The planning problem is formulated as an AC optimal power flow (OPF model with the objective of minimizing ESS installation cost and system operation cost. Stochastic wind and load inputs for the model are generated from historical data using clustering technique. The model is tested on the IEEE 39-bus system.
On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo Ferrandis
2007-03-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Babykina, Génia; Brînzei, Nicolae; Aubry, Jean-François; Deleuze, Gilles
2016-01-01
The paper proposes a modeling framework to support Monte Carlo simulations of the behavior of a complex industrial system. The aim is to analyze the system dependability in the presence of random events, described by any type of probability distributions. Continuous dynamic evolutions of physical parameters are taken into account by a system of differential equations. Dynamic reliability is chosen as theoretical framework. Based on finite state automata theory, the formal model is built by parallel composition of elementary sub-models using a bottom-up approach. Considerations of a stochastic nature lead to a model called the Stochastic Hybrid Automaton. The Scilab/Scicos open source environment is used for implementation. The case study is carried out on an example of a steam generator of a nuclear power plant. The behavior of the system is studied by exploring its trajectories. Possible system trajectories are analyzed both empirically, using the results of Monte Carlo simulations, and analytically, using the formal system model. The obtained results are show to be relevant. The Stochastic Hybrid Automaton appears to be a suitable tool to address the dynamic reliability problem and to model real systems of high complexity; the bottom-up design provides precision and coherency of the system model. - Highlights: • A part of a nuclear power plant is modeled in the context of dynamic reliability. • Stochastic Hybrid Automaton is used as an input model for Monte Carlo simulations. • The model is formally built using a bottom-up approach. • The behavior of the system is analyzed empirically and analytically. • A formally built SHA shows to be a suitable tool to approach dynamic reliability.
Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun
2017-09-01
In attempt to reproduce price dynamics of financial markets, a stochastic agent-based financial price model is proposed and investigated by stochastic exclusion process. The exclusion process, one of interacting particle systems, is usually thought of as modeling particle motion (with the conserved number of particles) in a continuous time Markov process. In this work, the process is utilized to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents, in order to explain some stylized facts found in financial time series dynamics. To better understand the correlation behaviors of the proposed model, a new time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation (TDI-DCC) is introduced and performed, also, the autocorrelation analyses are applied in the empirical research. Furthermore, to verify the rationality of the financial price model, the actual return series are also considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation ones. The comparison results of return behaviors reveal that this financial price dynamics model can reproduce some correlation features of actual stock markets.
A principle of fractal-stochastic dualism and Gompertzian dynamics of growth and self-organization.
Waliszewski, Przemyslaw
2005-10-01
The emergence of Gompertzian dynamics at the macroscopic, tissue level during growth and self-organization is determined by the existence of fractal-stochastic dualism at the microscopic level of supramolecular, cellular system. On one hand, Gompertzian dynamics results from the complex coupling of at least two antagonistic, stochastic processes at the molecular cellular level. It is shown that the Gompertz function is a probability function, its derivative is a probability density function, and the Gompertzian distribution of probability is of non-Gaussian type. On the other hand, the Gompertz function is a contraction mapping and defines fractal dynamics in time-space; a prerequisite condition for the coupling of processes. Furthermore, the Gompertz function is a solution of the operator differential equation with the Morse-like anharmonic potential. This relationship indicates that distribution of intrasystemic forces is both non-linear and asymmetric. The anharmonic potential is a measure of the intrasystemic interactions. It attains a point of the minimum (U(0), t(0)) along with a change of both complexity and connectivity during growth and self-organization. It can also be modified by certain factors, such as retinoids.
Distributed Adaptive Neural Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Multiagent Systems.
Wang, Fang; Chen, Bing; Lin, Chong; Li, Xuehua
2016-11-14
In this paper, a consensus tracking problem of nonlinear multiagent systems is investigated under a directed communication topology. All the followers are modeled by stochastic nonlinear systems in nonstrict feedback form, where nonlinearities and stochastic disturbance terms are totally unknown. Based on the structural characteristic of neural networks (in Lemma 4), a novel distributed adaptive neural control scheme is put forward. The raised control method not only effectively handles unknown nonlinearities in nonstrict feedback systems, but also copes with the interactions among agents and coupling terms. Based on the stochastic Lyapunov functional method, it is indicated that all the signals of the closed-loop system are bounded in probability and all followers' outputs are convergent to a neighborhood of the output of leader. At last, the efficiency of the control method is testified by a numerical example.
Hopf Bifurcation of Compound Stochastic van der Pol System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shaojuan Ma
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Hopf bifurcation analysis for compound stochastic van der Pol system with a bound random parameter and Gaussian white noise is investigated in this paper. By the Karhunen-Loeve (K-L expansion and the orthogonal polynomial approximation, the equivalent deterministic van der Pol system can be deduced. Based on the bifurcation theory of nonlinear deterministic system, the critical value of bifurcation parameter is obtained and the influence of random strength δ and noise intensity σ on stochastic Hopf bifurcation in compound stochastic system is discussed. At last we found that increased δ can relocate the critical value of bifurcation parameter forward while increased σ makes it backward and the influence of δ is more sensitive than σ. The results are verified by numerical simulations.
Exact and Approximate Stochastic Simulation of Intracellular Calcium Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicolas Wieder
2011-01-01
pathways. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an overview of the aforementioned simulation approaches and their mutual relationships in the spectrum ranging from stochastic to deterministic algorithms.
Optimal Control and Optimization of Stochastic Supply Chain Systems
Song, Dong-Ping
2013-01-01
Optimal Control and Optimization of Stochastic Supply Chain Systems examines its subject in the context of the presence of a variety of uncertainties. Numerous examples with intuitive illustrations and tables are provided, to demonstrate the structural characteristics of the optimal control policies in various stochastic supply chains and to show how to make use of these characteristics to construct easy-to-operate sub-optimal policies. In Part I, a general introduction to stochastic supply chain systems is provided. Analytical models for various stochastic supply chain systems are formulated and analysed in Part II. In Part III the structural knowledge of the optimal control policies obtained in Part II is utilized to construct easy-to-operate sub-optimal control policies for various stochastic supply chain systems accordingly. Finally, Part IV discusses the optimisation of threshold-type control policies and their robustness. A key feature of the book is its tying together of ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.
2010-01-01
The filtering and predictive skill for turbulent signals is often limited by the lack of information about the true dynamics of the system and by our inability to resolve the assumed dynamics with sufficiently high resolution using the current computing power. The standard approach is to use a simple yet rich family of constant parameters to account for model errors through parameterization. This approach can have significant skill by fitting the parameters to some statistical feature of the true signal; however in the context of real-time prediction, such a strategy performs poorly when intermittent transitions to instability occur. Alternatively, we need a set of dynamic parameters. One strategy for estimating parameters on the fly is a stochastic parameter estimation through partial observations of the true signal. In this paper, we extend our newly developed stochastic parameter estimation strategy, the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF), to filtering sparsely observed spatially extended turbulent systems which exhibit abrupt stability transition from time to time despite a stable average behavior. For our primary numerical example, we consider a turbulent system of externally forced barotropic Rossby waves with instability introduced through intermittent negative damping. We find high filtering skill of SPEKF applied to this toy model even in the case of very sparse observations (with only 15 out of the 105 grid points observed) and with unspecified external forcing and damping. Additive and multiplicative bias corrections are used to learn the unknown features of the true dynamics from observations. We also present a comprehensive study of predictive skill in the one-mode context including the robustness toward variation of stochastic parameters, imperfect initial conditions and finite ensemble effect. Furthermore, the proposed stochastic parameter estimation scheme applied to the same spatially extended Rossby wave system demonstrates
Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and stochastic thermodynamics of small systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tu Zhanchun
2014-01-01
Thermodynamics is an old subject. The research objects in conventional thermodynamics are macroscopic systems with huge number of particles. In recent 30 years, thermodynamics of small systems is a frontier topic in physics. Here we introduce nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and stochastic thermodynamics of small systems. As a case study, we construct a Canot-like cycle of a stochastic heat engine with a single particle controlled by a time-dependent harmonic potential. We find that the efficiency at maximum power is 1 - √T c /T h , where Tc and Th are the temperatures of cold bath and hot bath, respectively. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Aiping; Guo, Lei; Wang, Hong
2017-07-09
This paper presents an error-entropy minimization tracking control algorithm for a class of dynamic stochastic system. The system is represented by a set of time-varying discrete nonlinear equations with non-Gaussian stochastic input, where the statistical properties of stochastic input are unknown. By using Parzen windowing with Gaussian kernel to estimate the probability densities of errors, recursive algorithms are then proposed to design the controller such that the tracking error can be minimized. The performance of the error-entropy minimization criterion is compared with the mean-square-error minimization in the simulation results.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabass, Benedikt; Schwarz, Ulrich S
2010-01-01
In migrating cells, retrograde flow of the actin cytoskeleton is related to traction at adhesion sites located at the base of the lamellipodium. The coupling between the moving cytoskeleton and the stationary adhesions is mediated by the continuous association and dissociation of molecular bonds. We introduce a simple model for the competition between the stochastic dynamics of elastic bonds at the moving interface and relaxation within the moving actin cytoskeleton represented by an internal viscous friction coefficient. Using exact stochastic simulations and an analytical mean field theory, we show that the stochastic bond dynamics lead to biphasic friction laws as observed experimentally. At low internal dissipation, stochastic bond dynamics lead to a regime of irregular stick-and-slip motion. High internal dissipation effectively suppresses cooperative effects among bonds and hence stabilizes the adhesion.
On the precision of quasi steady state assumptions in stochastic dynamics
Agarwal, Animesh; Adams, Rhys; Castellani, Gastone C.; Shouval, Harel Z.
2012-07-01
Many biochemical networks have complex multidimensional dynamics and there is a long history of methods that have been used for dimensionality reduction for such reaction networks. Usually a deterministic mass action approach is used; however, in small volumes, there are significant fluctuations from the mean which the mass action approach cannot capture. In such cases stochastic simulation methods should be used. In this paper, we evaluate the applicability of one such dimensionality reduction method, the quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA) [L. Menten and M. Michaelis, "Die kinetik der invertinwirkung," Biochem. Z 49, 333369 (1913)] for dimensionality reduction in case of stochastic dynamics. First, the applicability of QSSA approach is evaluated for a canonical system of enzyme reactions. Application of QSSA to such a reaction system in a deterministic setting leads to Michaelis-Menten reduced kinetics which can be used to derive the equilibrium concentrations of the reaction species. In the case of stochastic simulations, however, the steady state is characterized by fluctuations around the mean equilibrium concentration. Our analysis shows that a QSSA based approach for dimensionality reduction captures well the mean of the distribution as obtained from a full dimensional simulation but fails to accurately capture the distribution around that mean. Moreover, the QSSA approximation is not unique. We have then extended the analysis to a simple bistable biochemical network model proposed to account for the stability of synaptic efficacies; the substrate of learning and memory [J. E. Lisman, "A mechanism of memory storage insensitive to molecular turnover: A bistable autophosphorylating kinase," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 82, 3055-3057 (1985)], 10.1073/pnas.82.9.3055. Our analysis shows that a QSSA based dimensionality reduction method results in errors as big as two orders of magnitude in predicting the residence times in the two stable states.
OPTIMAL TRAINING POLICY FOR PROMOTION - STOCHASTIC MODELS OF MANPOWER SYSTEMS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V.S.S. Yadavalli
2012-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the optimal planning of manpower training programmes in a manpower system with two grades is discussed. The planning of manpower training within a given organization involves a trade-off between training costs and expected return. These planning problems are examined through models that reflect the random nature of manpower movement in two grades. To be specific, the system consists of two grades, grade 1 and grade 2. Any number of persons in grade 2 can be sent for training and after the completion of training, they will stay in grade 2 and will be given promotion as and when vacancies arise in grade 1. Vacancies arise in grade 1 only by wastage. A person in grade 1 can leave the system with probability p. Vacancies are filled with persons in grade 2 who have completed the training. It is assumed that there is a perfect passing rate and that the sizes of both grades are fixed. Assuming that the planning horizon is finite and is T, the underlying stochastic process is identified as a finite state Markov chain and using dynamic programming, a policy is evolved to determine how many persons should be sent for training at any time k so as to minimize the total expected cost for the entire planning period T.
Stochastic and Macroscopic Thermodynamics of Strongly Coupled Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher Jarzynski
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We develop a thermodynamic framework that describes a classical system of interest S that is strongly coupled to its thermal environment E. Within this framework, seven key thermodynamic quantities—internal energy, entropy, volume, enthalpy, Gibbs free energy, heat, and work—are defined microscopically. These quantities obey thermodynamic relations including both the first and second law, and they satisfy nonequilibrium fluctuation theorems. We additionally impose a macroscopic consistency condition: When S is large, the quantities defined within our framework scale up to their macroscopic counterparts. By satisfying this condition, we demonstrate that a unifying framework can be developed, which encompasses both stochastic thermodynamics at one end, and macroscopic thermodynamics at the other. A central element in our approach is a thermodynamic definition of the volume of the system of interest, which converges to the usual geometric definition when S is large. We also sketch an alternative framework that satisfies the same consistency conditions. The dynamics of the system and environment are modeled using Hamilton’s equations in the full phase space.
Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.
2014-01-01
Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo
Stochastic dynamics: Crossover from 1/f3 to flicker noise
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Canessa, E.; Nguyen, V.L.
1993-01-01
Finite time processes within the limits of the Newton equation and zero inertia motion (i.e., road to chaos) are studied by numerically solving the ordinary, stochastic Langevin equation in 1D for a free particle with inertial moving in a medium with viscosity γ. In this simulations, the scaling behaviour of particle trajectories χ(t) and velocities v(t) with time are derived and the inclusion of non-zero particle masses is shown to define the asymptotic time limit τ c at which - independently of γ - the system evolves into the well-known statistically stationary state characterized by 2 (t) > is proportional to t and flicker noise. The time τ c is further analysed from the correlation length given by the 2-point autocorrelation function of the particle velocity at each value of γ. It is found that the noise power spectrum of v(t) is characterized by flicker noise for frequencies f ≤ f c ∼ 1/τ c , whereas for f > f c , the noise power spectra behave as 1/f υ , where υ varies between the limits of Newton's equation (i.e., υ = 3) and road to chaos (i.e., υ = 1). Furthermore, at times τ c and 0 f (γ) while the single particle trajectories are shown to display a rather different subset of exponents on increasing γ. Generic features of this transition are nicely given by Poincare maps in the velocity space. (author). 23 refs, 8 figs
Stochastic optimal control in infinite dimension dynamic programming and HJB equations
Fabbri, Giorgio; Święch, Andrzej
2017-01-01
Providing an introduction to stochastic optimal control in infinite dimension, this book gives a complete account of the theory of second-order HJB equations in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces, focusing on its applicability to associated stochastic optimal control problems. It features a general introduction to optimal stochastic control, including basic results (e.g. the dynamic programming principle) with proofs, and provides examples of applications. A complete and up-to-date exposition of the existing theory of viscosity solutions and regular solutions of second-order HJB equations in Hilbert spaces is given, together with an extensive survey of other methods, with a full bibliography. In particular, Chapter 6, written by M. Fuhrman and G. Tessitore, surveys the theory of regular solutions of HJB equations arising in infinite-dimensional stochastic control, via BSDEs. The book is of interest to both pure and applied researchers working in the control theory of stochastic PDEs, and in PDEs in infinite ...
? filtering for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes
Song, Bo; Wu, Zheng-Guang; Park, Ju H.; Shi, Guodong; Zhang, Ya
2015-01-01
This paper investigates the ? filtering problem for stochastic systems driven by Poisson processes. By utilising the martingale theory such as the predictable projection operator and the dual predictable projection operator, this paper transforms the expectation of stochastic integral with respect to the Poisson process into the expectation of Lebesgue integral. Then, based on this, this paper designs an ? filter such that the filtering error system is mean-square asymptotically stable and satisfies a prescribed ? performance level. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme.
Stochastic responses of tumor–immune system with periodic treatment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Dong-Xi; Li Ying
2017-01-01
We investigate the stochastic responses of a tumor–immune system competition model with environmental noise and periodic treatment. Firstly, a mathematical model describing the interaction between tumor cells and immune system under external fluctuations and periodic treatment is established based on the stochastic differential equation. Then, sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence of the tumor cells are derived by constructing Lyapunov functions and Ito’s formula. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate and verify the results. The results of this work provide the theoretical basis for designing more effective and precise therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells, especially for combining the immunotherapy and the traditional tools. (paper)
Ray and wave optics of integrable and stochastic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McDonald, S.W.; Kaufman, A.N.
1979-07-01
The generalization of WKB methods to more than one dimension is discussed in terms of the integrability or non-integrability of the geometrical optics (ray Hamiltonian) system derived in the short-wave approximation. In the two-dimensional case the ray trajectories are either regular or stochastic, and the qualitative differences between these types of motion are manifested in the characteristics of the spectra and eigenfunctions. These are examined for a model system which may be integrable or stochastic, depending on a single parameter
Stochastic simulation of off-shore oil terminal systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frankel, E.G.; Oberle, J.
1991-01-01
To cope with the problem of uncertainty and conditionality in the planning, design, and operation of offshore oil transshipment terminal systems, a conditional stochastic simulation approach is presented. Examples are shown, using SLAM II, a computer simulation language based on GERT, a conditional stochastic network analysis methodology in which use of resources such as time and money are expressed by the moment generating function of the statistics of the resource requirements. Similarly each activity has an associated conditional probability of being performed and/or of requiring some of the resources. The terminal system is realistically represented by modelling the statistics of arrivals, loading and unloading times, uncertainties in costs and availabilities, etc
Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems
Kulkarni, V G
2011-01-01
This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qian, Hong
2014-01-01
We propose a mathematical formulation of the zeroth law of thermodynamics and develop a stochastic dynamical theory, with a consistent irreversible thermodynamics, for systems possessing sustained conservative stationary current in phase space while in equilibrium with a heat bath. The theory generalizes underdamped mechanical equilibrium: dx=gdt+{−D∇ϕdt+√(2D)dB(t)}, with ∇⋅g=0 and {⋯} respectively representing phase-volume preserving dynamics and stochastic damping. The zeroth law implies stationary distribution u ss (x)=e −ϕ(x) . We find an orthogonality ∇ϕ⋅g=0 as a hallmark of the system. Stochastic thermodynamics based on time reversal (t,ϕ,g)→(−t,ϕ,−g) is formulated: entropy production e p # (t)=−dF(t)/dt; generalized “heat” h d # (t)=−dU(t)/dt, U(t)=∫ R n ϕ(x)u(x,t)dx being “internal energy”, and “free energy” F(t)=U(t)+∫ R n u(x,t)lnu(x,t)dx never increases. Entropy follows (dS)/(dt) =e p # −h d # . Our formulation is shown to be consistent with an earlier theory of P. Ao. Its contradistinctions to other theories, potential-flux decomposition, stochastic Hamiltonian system with even and odd variables, Klein–Kramers equation, Freidlin–Wentzell's theory, and GENERIC, are discussed.
Gottwald, G.A.; Crommelin, D.T.; Franzke, C.L.E.; Franzke, C.L.E.; O'Kane, T.J.
2017-01-01
In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel
2009-01-01
The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.
Non-cooperative stochastic differential game theory of generalized Markov jump linear systems
Zhang, Cheng-ke; Zhou, Hai-ying; Bin, Ning
2017-01-01
This book systematically studies the stochastic non-cooperative differential game theory of generalized linear Markov jump systems and its application in the field of finance and insurance. The book is an in-depth research book of the continuous time and discrete time linear quadratic stochastic differential game, in order to establish a relatively complete framework of dynamic non-cooperative differential game theory. It uses the method of dynamic programming principle and Riccati equation, and derives it into all kinds of existence conditions and calculating method of the equilibrium strategies of dynamic non-cooperative differential game. Based on the game theory method, this book studies the corresponding robust control problem, especially the existence condition and design method of the optimal robust control strategy. The book discusses the theoretical results and its applications in the risk control, option pricing, and the optimal investment problem in the field of finance and insurance, enriching the...
Optimising stochastic trajectories in exact quantum jump approaches of interacting systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lacroix, D.
2004-11-01
The standard methods used to substitute the quantum dynamics of two interacting systems by a quantum jump approach based on the Stochastic Schroedinger Equation (SSE) are described. It turns out that for a given situation, there exists an infinite number of SSE reformulation. This fact is used to propose general strategies to optimise the stochastic paths in order to reduce the statistical fluctuations. In this procedure, called the 'adaptative noise method', a specific SSE is obtained for which the noise depends explicitly on both the initial state and on the properties of the interaction Hamiltonian. It is also shown that this method can be further improved by the introduction of a mean-field dynamics. The different optimisation procedures are illustrated quantitatively in the case of interacting spins. A significant reduction of the statistical fluctuations is obtained. Consequently, a much smaller number of trajectories is needed to accurately reproduce the exact dynamics as compared to the standard SSE method. (author)
Dynamic-stochastic modeling of snow cover formation on the European territory of Russia
A. N. Gelfan; V. M. Moreido
2014-01-01
A dynamic-stochastic model, which combines a deterministic model of snow cover formation with a stochastic weather generator, has been developed. The deterministic snow model describes temporal change of the snow depth, content of ice and liquid water, snow density, snowmelt, sublimation, re-freezing of melt water, and snow metamorphism. The model has been calibrated and validated against the long-term data of snow measurements over the territory of the European Russia. The model showed good ...
Stochastic linear dynamical programming in order to apply it in energy modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
El Hachem, S
1995-11-01
This thesis contributes to the development of new algorithms for the computation of stochastic dynamic problem and its mini-maxi variant for the case of imperfect knowledge on random data. The proposed algorithms are scenarios aggregation type. It also contributes to integrate these algorithms in a decision support approach and to discuss the stochastic modeling of two energy problems: the refining and the portfolio gas contracts. (author). 112 refs., 5 tabs.
Threshold for extinction and survival in stochastic tumor immune system
Li, Dongxi; Cheng, Fangjuan
2017-10-01
This paper mainly investigates the stochastic character of tumor growth and extinction in the presence of immune response of a host organism. Firstly, the mathematical model describing the interaction and competition between the tumor cells and immune system is established based on the Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics. Then, the threshold conditions for extinction, weak persistence and stochastic persistence of tumor cells are derived by the rigorous theoretical proofs. Finally, stochastic simulation are taken to substantiate and illustrate the conclusion we have derived. The modeling results will be beneficial to understand to concept of immunoediting, and develop the cancer immunotherapy. Besides, our simple theoretical model can help to obtain new insight into the complexity of tumor growth.
Deterministic Versus Stochastic Interpretation of Continuously Monitored Sewer Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harremoës, Poul; Carstensen, Niels Jacob
1994-01-01
An analysis has been made of the uncertainty of input parameters to deterministic models for sewer systems. The analysis reveals a very significant uncertainty, which can be decreased, but not eliminated and has to be considered for engineering application. Stochastic models have a potential for ...
Optimal adaptive control for a class of stochastic systems
Bagchi, Arunabha; Chen, Han-Fu
1995-01-01
We study linear-quadratic adaptive tracking problems for a special class of stochastic systems expressed in the state-space form. This is a long-standing problem in the control of aircraft flying through atmospheric turbulence. Using an ELS-based algorithm and introducing dither in the control law
Stochastic Predictive Control of Multi-Microgrid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bazmohammadi, Najmeh; Tahsiri, Ahmadreza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad
2018-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic predictive control algorithm for a number of microgrids connected to the same distribution system. Each microgrid includes a variety of distributed resources such as wind turbine, photo voltaic units, energy storage devices and loads. Considering the uncertainty...
Stochastic Robust Mathematical Programming Model for Power System Optimization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Cong; Changhyeok, Lee; Haoyong, Chen; Mehrotra, Sanjay
2016-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic robust framework for two-stage power system optimization problems with uncertainty. The model optimizes the probabilistic expectation of different worst-case scenarios with ifferent uncertainty sets. A case study of unit commitment shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.
Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics
Bressloff, Paul C.
2010-01-01
We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand
Stochastic Dynamics of a Time-Delayed Ecosystem Driven by Poisson White Noise Excitation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wantao Jia
2018-02-01
Full Text Available We investigate the stochastic dynamics of a prey-predator type ecosystem with time delay and the discrete random environmental fluctuations. In this model, the delay effect is represented by a time delay parameter and the effect of the environmental randomness is modeled as Poisson white noise. The stochastic averaging method and the perturbation method are applied to calculate the approximate stationary probability density functions for both predator and prey populations. The influences of system parameters and the Poisson white noises are investigated in detail based on the approximate stationary probability density functions. It is found that, increasing time delay parameter as well as the mean arrival rate and the variance of the amplitude of the Poisson white noise will enhance the fluctuations of the prey and predator population. While the larger value of self-competition parameter will reduce the fluctuation of the system. Furthermore, the results from Monte Carlo simulation are also obtained to show the effectiveness of the results from averaging method.
Stochastic Model Predictive Control with Applications in Smart Energy Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Mølbak, Tommy
2012-01-01
to cover more than 50% of the total consumption by 2050. Energy systems based on significant amounts of renewable energy sources are subject to uncertainties. To accommodate the need for model predictive control (MPC) of such systems, the effect of the stochastic effects on the constraints must...... study, we consider a system consisting of fuel-fired thermal power plants, wind farms and electric vehicles....
D'Onofrio, Giuseppe; Pirozzi, Enrica
2017-05-01
We consider a stochastic differential equation in a strip, with coefficients suitably chosen to describe the acto-myosin interaction subject to time-varying forces. By simulating trajectories of the stochastic dynamics via an Euler discretization-based algorithm, we fit experimental data and determine the values of involved parameters. The steps of the myosin are represented by the exit events from the strip. Motivated by these results, we propose a specific stochastic model based on the corresponding time-inhomogeneous Gauss-Markov and diffusion process evolving between two absorbing boundaries. We specify the mean and covariance functions of the stochastic modeling process taking into account time-dependent forces including the effect of an external load. We accurately determine the probability density function (pdf) of the first exit time (FET) from the strip by solving a system of two non singular second-type Volterra integral equations via a numerical quadrature. We provide numerical estimations of the mean of FET as approximations of the dwell-time of the proteins dynamics. The percentage of backward steps is given in agreement to experimental data. Numerical and simulation results are compared and discussed.
Stochasticity and transport in Hamiltonian systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
MacKay, R.S.; Meiss, J.D.; Percival, I.C.
1984-01-01
The theory of transport in nonlinear dynamics is developed in terms of ''leaky'' barriers which remain when invariant tori are destroyed. A critical exponent for transport times across destroyed tori is obtained which explains numerical results of Chirikov. The combined effects of many destroyed tori lead to power-law decay of correlations observed in many computations. (author)
Quantum dynamical time evolutions as stochastic flows on phase space
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Combe, P.; Rodriguez, R.; Guerra, F.; Sirigue, M.; Sirigue-Collin, M.
1984-01-01
We are mainly interested in describing the time development of the Wigner functions by means of stochastic processes. In the second section we recall the main properties of the Wigner functions as well as those of their Fourier transform. In the next one we derive the evolution equation of these functions for a class of Hamiltonians and we give a probabilistic expression for the solution of these equations by means of a stochastic flow in phase space which reminds of the classical flows. In the last section we remark that the previously defined flow can be extended to the bounded continuous functions on phase space and that this flow conserves the cone generated by the Wigner functions. (orig./HSI)
Dynamic analysis of a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model
Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying; Wang, Shuangfeng; Zou, Guang-an
2018-02-01
The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, has led rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model. Firstly, we obtain the existence of the global solution. Secondly, sufficient conditions for extinction of the rumor are established. Lastly, the boundedness of solution is proved and some simulations are given to verify our results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pengfei Guo
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the fault detection problem for a class of discrete-time wireless networked control systems described by switching topology with uncertainties and disturbances. System states of each individual node are affected not only by its own measurements, but also by other nodes’ measurements according to a certain network topology. As the topology of system can be switched in a stochastic way, we aim to design H∞ fault detection observers for nodes in the dynamic time-delay systems. By using the Lyapunov method and stochastic analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are acquired to guarantee the existence of the filters satisfying the H∞ performance constraint, and observer gains are derived by solving linear matrix inequalities. Finally, an illustrated example is provided to verify the effectiveness of the theoretical results.
Theory of time-averaged neutral dynamics with environmental stochasticity
Danino, Matan; Shnerb, Nadav M.
2018-04-01
Competition is the main driver of population dynamics, which shapes the genetic composition of populations and the assembly of ecological communities. Neutral models assume that all the individuals are equivalent and that the dynamics is governed by demographic (shot) noise, with a steady state species abundance distribution (SAD) that reflects a mutation-extinction equilibrium. Recently, many empirical and theoretical studies emphasized the importance of environmental variations that affect coherently the relative fitness of entire populations. Here we consider two generic time-averaged neutral models; in both the relative fitness of each species fluctuates independently in time but its mean is zero. The first (model A) describes a system with local competition and linear fitness dependence of the birth-death rates, while in the second (model B) the competition is global and the fitness dependence is nonlinear. Due to this nonlinearity, model B admits a noise-induced stabilization mechanism that facilitates the invasion of new mutants. A self-consistent mean-field approach is used to reduce the multispecies problem to two-species dynamics, and the large-N asymptotics of the emerging set of Fokker-Planck equations is presented and solved. Our analytic expressions are shown to fit the SADs obtained from extensive Monte Carlo simulations and from numerical solutions of the corresponding master equations.
Multivariable controller for discrete stochastic amplitude-constrained systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannu T. Toivonen
1983-04-01
Full Text Available A sub-optimal multivariable controller for discrete stochastic amplitude-constrained systems is presented. In the approach the regulator structure is restricted to the class of linear saturated feedback laws. The stationary covariances of the controlled system are evaluated by approximating the stationary probability distribution of the state by a gaussian distribution. An algorithm for minimizing a quadratic loss function is given, and examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the sub-optimal controller.
Analytical vs. Simulation Solution Techniques for Pulse Problems in Non-linear Stochastic Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.
Advantages and disadvantages of available analytical and simulation techniques for pulse problems in non-linear stochastic dynamics are discussed. First, random pulse problems, both those which do and do not lead to Markov theory, are presented. Next, the analytical and analytically-numerical tec......Advantages and disadvantages of available analytical and simulation techniques for pulse problems in non-linear stochastic dynamics are discussed. First, random pulse problems, both those which do and do not lead to Markov theory, are presented. Next, the analytical and analytically...
Bifurcation Regulations Governed by Delay Self-Control Feedback in a Stochastic Birhythmic System
Ma, Zhidan; Ning, Lijuan
2017-12-01
We aim to investigate bifurcation behaviors in a stochastic birhythmic van der Pol (BVDP) system subjected to delay self-control feedback. First, the harmonic approximation is adopted to drive the delay self-control feedback to state variables without delay. Then, Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation and stationary probability density function (SPDF) for amplitude are obtained by applying stochastic averaging method. Finally, dynamical scenarios of the change of delay self-control feedback as well as noise that markedly influence bifurcation performance are observed. It is found that: the big feedback strength and delay will suppress the large amplitude limit cycle (LC) while the relatively big noise strength facilitates the large amplitude LC, which imply the proposed regulation strategies are feasible. Interestingly enough, the inner LC is never destroyed due to noise. Furthermore, the validity of analytical results was verified by Monte Carlo simulation of the dynamics.
Druce, Donald J.
1990-01-01
A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))
1990-01-01
A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.
Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Real Systems
William Barnett; Apostolos Serletis; Demitre Serletis
2005-01-01
This paper was produced for the El-Naschie Symposium on Nonlinear Dynamics in Shanghai in December 2005. In this paper we provide a review of the literature with respect to fluctuations in real systems and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the order and organization hypothesis of real systems with nonlinear chaotic dynamics and discuss some techniques used in distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic behavior. Moreover, we look at the issue of where and when the ideas of chaos could p...
Induced topological pressure for topological dynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xing, Zhitao; Chen, Ercai
2015-01-01
In this paper, inspired by the article [J. Jaerisch et al., Stochastics Dyn. 14, 1350016, pp. 1-30 (2014)], we introduce the induced topological pressure for a topological dynamical system. In particular, we prove a variational principle for the induced topological pressure
Centralized Stochastic Optimal Control of Complex Systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Malikopoulos, Andreas [ORNL
2015-01-01
In this paper we address the problem of online optimization of the supervisory power management control in parallel hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). We model HEV operation as a controlled Markov chain using the long-run expected average cost per unit time criterion, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion online. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is validated through simulation and compared to the solution derived with dynamic programming using the average cost criterion.
STOCHSIMGPU: parallel stochastic simulation for the Systems Biology Toolbox 2 for MATLAB
Klingbeil, G.; Erban, R.; Giles, M.; Maini, P. K.
2011-01-01
Motivation: The importance of stochasticity in biological systems is becoming increasingly recognized and the computational cost of biologically realistic stochastic simulations urgently requires development of efficient software. We present a new
Accelerated maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic biochemical systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daigle Bernie J
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background A prerequisite for the mechanistic simulation of a biochemical system is detailed knowledge of its kinetic parameters. Despite recent experimental advances, the estimation of unknown parameter values from observed data is still a bottleneck for obtaining accurate simulation results. Many methods exist for parameter estimation in deterministic biochemical systems; methods for discrete stochastic systems are less well developed. Given the probabilistic nature of stochastic biochemical models, a natural approach is to choose parameter values that maximize the probability of the observed data with respect to the unknown parameters, a.k.a. the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs. MLE computation for all but the simplest models requires the simulation of many system trajectories that are consistent with experimental data. For models with unknown parameters, this presents a computational challenge, as the generation of consistent trajectories can be an extremely rare occurrence. Results We have developed Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization with Modified Cross-Entropy Method (MCEM2: an accelerated method for calculating MLEs that combines advances in rare event simulation with a computationally efficient version of the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM algorithm. Our method requires no prior knowledge regarding parameter values, and it automatically provides a multivariate parameter uncertainty estimate. We applied the method to five stochastic systems of increasing complexity, progressing from an analytically tractable pure-birth model to a computationally demanding model of yeast-polarization. Our results demonstrate that MCEM2 substantially accelerates MLE computation on all tested models when compared to a stand-alone version of MCEM. Additionally, we show how our method identifies parameter values for certain classes of models more accurately than two recently proposed computationally efficient methods
A Stochastic Operational Planning Model for Smart Power Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sh. Jadid
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Smart Grids are result of utilizing novel technologies such as distributed energy resources, and communication technologies in power system to compensate some of its defects. Various power resources provide some benefits for operation domain however, power system operator should use a powerful methodology to manage them. Renewable resources and load add uncertainty to the problem. So, independent system operator should use a stochastic method to manage them. A Stochastic unit commitment is presented in this paper to schedule various power resources such as distributed generation units, conventional thermal generation units, wind and PV farms, and demand response resources. Demand response resources, interruptible loads, distributed generation units, and conventional thermal generation units are used to provide required reserve for compensating stochastic nature of various resources and loads. In the presented model, resources connected to distribution network can participate in wholesale market through aggregators. Moreover, a novel three-program model which can be used by aggregators is presented in this article. Loads and distributed generation can contract with aggregators by these programs. A three-bus test system and the IEEE RTS are used to illustrate usefulness of the presented model. The results show that ISO can manage the system effectively by using this model
Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar
2012-12-01
The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen Xu
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Time-varying volatility is common in macroeconomic data and has been incorporated into macroeconomic models in recent work. Dynamic panel data models have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics to study common relationships across countries or regions. This paper estimates dynamic panel data models with stochastic volatility by maximizing an approximate likelihood obtained via Rao-Blackwellized particle filters. Monte Carlo studies reveal the good and stable performance of our particle filter-based estimator. When the volatility of volatility is high, or when regressors are absent but stochastic volatility exists, our approach can be better than the maximum likelihood estimator which neglects stochastic volatility and generalized method of moments (GMM estimators.
Stochastic Resonance in a System of Coupled Chaotic Oscillators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krawiecki, A.
1999-01-01
Noise-free stochastic resonance is investigated numerically in a system of two coupled chaotic Roessler oscillators. Periodic signal is applied either additively or multiplicatively to the coupling term. When the coupling constant is varied the oscillators lose synchronization via attractor bubbling or on-off intermittency. Properly chosen signals are analyzed which reflect the sequence of synchronized (laminar) phases and non-synchronized bursts in the time evolution of the oscillators. Maximum of the signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the coupling constant is observed. Dependence of the signal-to-noise ratio on the frequency of the periodic signal and parameter mismatch between the oscillators is investigated. Possible applications of stochastic resonance in the recovery of signals in secure communication systems based on chaotic synchronization are briefly discussed. (author)
Information theory and stochastics for multiscale nonlinear systems
Majda, Andrew J; Grote, Marcus J
2005-01-01
This book introduces mathematicians to the fascinating emerging mathematical interplay between ideas from stochastics and information theory and important practical issues in studying complex multiscale nonlinear systems. It emphasizes the serendipity between modern applied mathematics and applications where rigorous analysis, the development of qualitative and/or asymptotic models, and numerical modeling all interact to explain complex phenomena. After a brief introduction to the emerging issues in multiscale modeling, the book has three main chapters. The first chapter is an introduction to information theory with novel applications to statistical mechanics, predictability, and Jupiter's Red Spot for geophysical flows. The second chapter discusses new mathematical issues regarding fluctuation-dissipation theorems for complex nonlinear systems including information flow, various approximations, and illustrates applications to various mathematical models. The third chapter discusses stochastic modeling of com...
Denteneer, Dee; Verbitskiy, Evgeny
2006-01-01
Contains 29 contributions by Mike's closest colleagues and friends, covering a broad range of topics in Dynamics and Stochastics. - To celebrate Mike's scientific achievements, a conference entitled "Dynamical Systems, Probability Theory and Statistical Mechanics" was organized in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, during the week of January 3-7, 2005. This conference was hosted jointly by EURANDOM and by Philips Research. It drew over 80 participants from 5 continents, which is a sign of the warm affection and high esteem for Mike felt by the international mathematics community.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yin, George; Wang, Le Yi; Zhang, Hongwei
2014-01-01
Stochastic approximation methods have found extensive and diversified applications. Recent emergence of networked systems and cyber-physical systems has generated renewed interest in advancing stochastic approximation into a general framework to support algorithm development for information processing and decisions in such systems. This paper presents a survey on some recent developments in stochastic approximation methods and their applications. Using connected vehicles in platoon formation and coordination as a platform, we highlight some traditional and new methodologies of stochastic approximation algorithms and explain how they can be used to capture essential features in networked systems. Distinct features of networked systems with randomly switching topologies, dynamically evolving parameters, and unknown delays are presented, and control strategies are provided
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Xiaodong, E-mail: xiaodong.zhang@beg.utexas.edu [Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78713 (United States); Huang, Gordon [Institute of Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)
2013-02-15
Highlights: ► A dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming model is developed. ► Greenhouse gas emission control is considered. ► Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared. ► Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels are obtained. ► Tradeoffs between economics and environment are reflected. -- Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help
Energy-Based Controller Design of Stochastic Magnetic Levitation System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiwei Sun
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the control problem of magnetic levitation system, in which velocity feedback signal is influenced by stochastic disturbance. Firstly, single-degree-freedom magnetic levitation is regarded as an energy-transform action device. From the view of energy-balance relation, the magnetic levitation system is transformed into port-controlled Hamiltonian system model. Next, based on the Hamiltonian structure, the control law of magnetic levitation system is designed by applying Lyapunov theory. Finally, the simulation verifies the correctness of the proposed results.
Quality control system response to stochastic growth of amyloid fibrils
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pigolotti, S.; Lizana, L.; Sneppen, K.
2013-01-01
We introduce a stochastic model describing aggregation of misfolded proteins and degradation by the protein quality control system in a single cell. Aggregate growth is contrasted by the cell quality control system, that attacks them at different stages of the growth process, with an efficiency...... that decreases with their size. Model parameters are estimated from experimental data. Two qualitatively different behaviors emerge: a homeostatic state, where the quality control system is stable and aggregates of large sizes are not formed, and an oscillatory state, where the quality control system...
Stochastic Prediction of Ventilation System Performance
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Haghighat, F.; Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian
The paper briefly reviews the existing techniques for predicting the airflow rate due to the random nature of forcing functions, e.g. wind speed. The effort is to establish the relationship between the statistics of the output of a system and the statistics of the random input variables and param......The paper briefly reviews the existing techniques for predicting the airflow rate due to the random nature of forcing functions, e.g. wind speed. The effort is to establish the relationship between the statistics of the output of a system and the statistics of the random input variables...
Stochastic dynamics of penetrable rods in one dimension: occupied volume and spatial order.
Craven, Galen T; Popov, Alexander V; Hernandez, Rigoberto
2013-06-28
The occupied volume of a penetrable hard rod (HR) system in one dimension is probed through the use of molecular dynamics simulations. In these dynamical simulations, collisions between penetrable rods are governed by a stochastic penetration algorithm (SPA), which allows for rods to either interpenetrate with a probability δ, or collide elastically otherwise. The limiting values of this parameter, δ = 0 and δ = 1, correspond to the HR and the ideal limits, respectively. At intermediate values, 0 exclusive and independent events is observed, making prediction of the occupied volume nontrivial. At high hard core volume fractions φ0, the occupied volume expression derived by Rikvold and Stell [J. Chem. Phys. 82, 1014 (1985)] for permeable systems does not accurately predict the occupied volume measured from the SPA simulations. Multi-body effects contribute significantly to the pair correlation function g2(r) and the simplification by Rikvold and Stell that g2(r) = δ in the penetrative region is observed to be inaccurate for the SPA model. We find that an integral over the penetrative region of g2(r) is the principal quantity that describes the particle overlap ratios corresponding to the observed penetration probabilities. Analytic formulas are developed to predict the occupied volume of mixed systems and agreement is observed between these theoretical predictions and the results measured from simulation.
Stochastic dynamics of phase singularities under ventricular fibrillation in 2D Beeler-Reuter model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akio Suzuki
2011-09-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of ventricular fibrillation (VF has been studied extensively, and the initiation mechanism of VF has been elucidated to some extent. However, the stochastic dynamical nature of sustained VF remains unclear so far due to the complexity of high dimensional chaos in a heterogeneous system. In this paper, various statistical mechanical properties of sustained VF are studied numerically in 2D Beeler-Reuter-Drouhard-Roberge (BRDR model with normal and modified ionic current conductance. The nature of sustained VF is analyzed by measuring various fluctuations of spatial phase singularity (PS such as velocity, lifetime, the rates of birth and death. It is found that the probability density function (pdf for lifetime of PSs is independent of system size. It is also found that the hyper-Gamma distribution serves as a universal pdf for the counting number of PSs for various system sizes and various parameters of our model tissue under VF. Further, it is demonstrated that the nonlinear Langevin equation associated with a hyper-Gamma process can mimic the pdf and temporal variation of the number of PSs in the 2D BRDR model.
Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination
Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna
2017-01-01
A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.
Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anqi Miao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.
Noussair, C.N.; Pfajfar, D.; Zsiros, J.
2011-01-01
New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are the principal paradigm currently employed for central bank policymaking. In this paper, we construct experimental economies, populated with human subjects, with the structure of a New Keynesian DSGE model. We give individuals monetary
Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics.
Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca
2013-02-07
Riparian vegetation is a highly dynamic community that lives on river banks and which depends to a great extent on the fluvial hydrology. The stochasticity of the discharge and erosion/deposition processes in fact play a key role in determining the distribution of vegetation along a riparian transect. These abiotic processes interact with biotic competition/facilitation mechanisms, such as plant competition for light, water, and nutrients. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of plants characterized by three components: (1) stochastic forcing due to river discharges, (2) competition for resources, and (3) inter-species facilitation due to the interplay between vegetation and fluid dynamics processes. A minimalist stochastic bio-hydrological model is proposed for the dynamics of the biomass of two vegetation species: one species is assumed dominant and slow-growing, the other is subdominant, but fast-growing. The stochastic model is solved analytically and the probability density function of the plant biomasses is obtained as a function of both the hydrologic and biologic parameters. The impact of the competition/facilitation processes on the distribution of vegetation species along the riparian transect is investigated and remarkable effects are observed. Finally, a good qualitative agreement is found between the model results and field data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jingtao Shi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the relationship between maximum principle and dynamic programming for stochastic recursive optimal control problems. Under certain differentiability conditions, relations among the adjoint processes, the generalized Hamiltonian function, and the value function are given. A linear quadratic recursive utility portfolio optimization problem in the financial engineering is discussed as an explicitly illustrated example of the main result.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Davidsen, Claus; Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Liu, Suxia
2015-01-01
of stochastic dynamic programming, to optimize water resources management in the Ziya River basin. Natural runoff from the upper basin was estimated with a rainfall-runoff model autocalibrated using in situ measured discharge. The runoff serial correlation was described by a Markov chain and used as input...
Sharp asymptotics for stochastic dynamics with parallel updating rule with self-interaction
Bovier, A.; Nardi, F.R.; Spitoni, C.
2011-01-01
In this paper we study metastability for a stochastic dynamics with a parallel updating rule in particular for a probabilistic cellular automata. The problem is addressed in the Freidlin Wentzel regime, i.e., finite volume, small magnetic field, and in the limit when temperature tends to zero. We
Dynamical Behaviors of Stochastic Reaction-Diffusion Cohen-Grossberg Neural Networks with Delays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Wan
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates dynamical behaviors of stochastic Cohen-Grossberg neural network with delays and reaction diffusion. By employing Lyapunov method, Poincaré inequality and matrix technique, some sufficient criteria on ultimate boundedness, weak attractor, and asymptotic stability are obtained. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the correctness and effectiveness of our theoretical results.
Dynamic Asset Allocation with Stochastic Income and Interest Rates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Munk, Claus; Sørensen, Carsten
2010-01-01
We solve for optimal portfolios when interest rates and labor income are stochastic with the expected income growth being affine in the short-term interest rate in order to encompass business cycle variations in wages. Our calibration based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data supports...
A stochastic differential equation framework for the timewise dynamics of turbulent velocities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Schmiegel, Jürgen
2008-01-01
We discuss a stochastic differential equation as a modeling framework for the timewise dynamics of turbulent velocities. The equation is capable of capturing basic stylized facts of the statistics of temporal velocity increments. In particular, we focus on the evolution of the probability density...
Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity
J.J.A.G. Driessen (Joost); R. Xing (Rang)
2016-01-01
textabstractRecent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment
Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection
T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)
2016-01-01
textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with
P.A.N. Bosman (Peter); J.A. La Poutré (Han); D. Thierens (Dirk)
2007-01-01
htmlabstractThe focus of this paper is on how to design evolutionary algorithms (EAs) for solving stochastic dynamic optimization problems online, i.e. as time goes by. For a proper design, the EA must not only be capable of tracking shifting optima, it must also take into account the future
Who Is Afraid of Liquidity Risk? : Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Illiquidity
Driessen, Joost; Xing, R.
Recent empirical work documents large liquidity risk premiums in stock markets. We calculate the liquidity risk premiums demanded by large investors by solving a dynamic portfolio choice problem with stochastic price impact of trading, CRRA utility and a time-varying investment opportunity set. We
Phasing of Debuncher Stochastic Cooling Transverse Systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pasquinelli, Ralph
2000-01-01
With the higher frequency of the cooling systems in the Debuncher, a modified method of making transfer functions has been developed for transverse systems. (Measuring of the momentum systems is unchanged.) Speed in making the measurements is critical, as the beam tends to decelerate due to vacuum lifetime. In the 4-8 GHz band, the harmonics in the Debuncher are 6,700 to 13,400 times the revolution frequency. Every Hertz change in revolution frequency is multiplied by this harmonic number and becomes a frequency measurement error, which is an appreciable percent of the momentum width of the beam. It was originally thought that a momentum cooling system would be phased first so that the beam could be kept from drifting in revolution frequency. As it turned out, the momentum cooling was so effective (even with the gain turned down) that the momentum width normalized to fo became less than one Hertz on the Schottky pickup. A beam this narrow requires very precise measurement of tune and revolution frequency. It was difficult to get repeatable results. For initial measuring of the transverse arrays, relative phase and delay is all that is required, so the measurement settings outlined below will suffice. Once all input and output arrays are phased, a more precise measurement of all pickups to all kickers can be done with more points and both upper and lower side bands, as in figure 1. Settings on the network analyzer were adjusted for maximum measurement speed. Data is not analyzed until a complete set of measurements is taken. Start and stop frequencies should be chosen to be just slightly wider than the band being measured. For transverse systems, select betatron USB for the measurement type. This will make the measurement two times faster. Select 101 for the number of points, sweep time of 5 seconds, IF bandwidth 30 Hz, averages = 1. It is important during the phasing to continually measure the revolution frequency and beam width of the beam for transverse systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Maurico-Iglesias, Miguel; Castro, Ignacio Montero; Mollerup, Ane Loft
2015-01-01
. Such controller is aimed at keeping the system close to the optimal performance, thanks to an optimal selection of controlled variables. The definition of an optimal performance was carried out by a two-stage optimisation (stochastic and deterministic) to take into account both the overflow during the current......The design of sewer system control is a complex task given the large size of the sewer networks, the transient dynamics of the water flow and the stochastic nature of rainfall. This contribution presents a generic methodology for the design of a self-optimising controller in sewer systems...
Stochastic seismic floor response analysis method for various damping systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kitada, Y.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, M.; Kanda, J.
1991-01-01
A study using the stochastic seismic response analysis method which is applicable for the estimation of floor response spectra is carried out. It is pointed out as a shortcoming in this stochastic seismic response analysis method, that the method tends to overestimate floor response spectra for low damping systems, e.g. 1% of the critical damping ratio. An investigation on the cause of the shortcoming is carried out and a number of improvements in this method were also made to the original method by taking correlation of successive peaks in a response time history into account. The application of the improved method to a typical BWR reactor building is carried out. The resultant floor response spectra are compared with those obtained by deterministic time history analysis. Floor response spectra estimated by the improved method consistently cover the response spectra obtained by the time history analysis for various damping ratios. (orig.)
Stochastic Modelling and Self Tuning Control of a Continuous Cement Raw Material Mixing System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannu T. Toivonen
1980-01-01
Full Text Available The control of a continuously operating system for cement raw material mixing is studied. The purpose of the mixing system is to maintain a constant composition of the cement raw meal for the kiln despite variations of the raw material compositions. Experimental knowledge of the process dynamics and the characteristics of the various disturbances is used for deriving a stochastic model of the system. The optimal control strategy is then obtained as a minimum variance strategy. The control problem is finally solved using a self-tuning minimum variance regulator, and results from a successful implementation of the regulator are given.
Sulis, William H
2017-10-01
Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.
Stochastic dynamics of spatial effects in fragmentation of clusters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salinas-Rodriguez, E.; Rodriguez, R.F.; Zamora, J.M.
1991-01-01
We use a stochastic approach to study the effects of spatial in homogeneities in the kinetics of a fragmentation model which occurs in cluster breakup and polymer degradation. The analytical form of the cluster size distribution function is obtained for both the discrete and continuous limits. From it we calculate numerically the average size and volume of the clusters, their total concentration and the total scattering of the dispersion in both limits. The influence of spatial effects is explicitly shown in the last two quantities. From our description the equations for the equal-time and the two times density correlation functions are also derived in the continuous limit. Finally, the perspectives and limitations of our approach are discussed (Author)
Effect of Stochastic Charge Fluctuations on Dust Dynamics
Matthews, Lorin; Shotorban, Babak; Hyde, Truell
2017-10-01
The charging of particles in a plasma environment occurs through the collection of electrons and ions on the particle surface. Depending on the particle size and the plasma density, the standard deviation of the number of collected elementary charges, which fluctuates due to the randomness in times of collisions with electrons or ions, may be a significant fraction of the equilibrium charge. We use a discrete stochastic charging model to simulate the variations in charge across the dust surface as well as in time. The resultant asymmetric particle potentials, even for spherical grains, has a significant impact on the particle coagulation rate as well as the structure of the resulting aggregates. We compare the effects on particle collisions and growth in typical laboratory and astrophysical plasma environments. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant PHY-1414523.
Nonlinear dynamics of mushy layers induced by external stochastic fluctuations.
Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B
2018-02-28
The time-dependent process of directional crystallization in the presence of a mushy layer is considered with allowance for arbitrary fluctuations in the atmospheric temperature and friction velocity. A nonlinear set of mushy layer equations and boundary conditions is solved analytically when the heat and mass fluxes at the boundary between the mushy layer and liquid phase are induced by turbulent motion in the liquid and, as a result, have the corresponding convective form. Namely, the 'solid phase-mushy layer' and 'mushy layer-liquid phase' phase transition boundaries as well as the solid fraction, temperature and concentration (salinity) distributions are found. If the atmospheric temperature and friction velocity are constant, the analytical solution takes a parametric form. In the more common case when they represent arbitrary functions of time, the analytical solution is given by means of the standard Cauchy problem. The deterministic and stochastic behaviour of the phase transition process is analysed on the basis of the obtained analytical solutions. In the case of stochastic fluctuations in the atmospheric temperature and friction velocity, the phase transition interfaces (mushy layer boundaries) move faster than in the deterministic case. A cumulative effect of these noise contributions is revealed as well. In other words, when the atmospheric temperature and friction velocity fluctuate simultaneously due to the influence of different external processes and phenomena, the phase transition boundaries move even faster. This article is part of the theme issue 'From atomistic interfaces to dendritic patterns'.This article is part of the theme issue 'From atomistic interfaces to dendritic patterns'. © 2018 The Author(s).
Stochastic control applied to the ISWEC Wave Energy System
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bracco, Giovanni; Casassa, Maria; Giorcelli, Ermanno; Mattiazzo, Giuliana; Passione, Biagio; Raffero, Mattia; Vissio, Giacomo; Martini, Michele
2015-01-01
ISWEC (Inertial Sea Wave Energy Converter) is a floating marine device able to harvest sea waves energy by the interaction between the pitching motion of a floater and a spinning flywheel which can drive an electric PTO. In the ISWEC the hull dynamics is governed and controlled by the gyroscopic torque. The optimal control logic results in tuning the floater dynamics to the incoming waves in order to maximize the power transfer from the waves to the floater. In this paper the control problems of the ISWEC are stated and a control scheme based on the sub-optimal stochastic control logic is presented. The control scheme here presented has been tested using real wave records acquired at the deployment location in Pantelleria Island, which is one of the most energetic sites of the Mediterranean Sea.
Helbing, Dirk; Schönhof, Martin; Kern, Daniel
2002-06-01
The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc, they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified methods of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.
Optimal Integration of Intermittent Renewables: A System LCOE Stochastic Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlo Lucheroni
2018-03-01
Full Text Available We propose a system level approach to value the impact on costs of the integration of intermittent renewable generation in a power system, based on expected breakeven cost and breakeven cost risk. To do this, we carefully reconsider the definition of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE when extended to non-dispatchable generation, by examining extra costs and gains originated by the costly management of random power injections. We are thus lead to define a ‘system LCOE’ as a system dependent LCOE that takes properly into account intermittent generation. In order to include breakeven cost risk we further extend this deterministic approach to a stochastic setting, by introducing a ‘stochastic system LCOE’. This extension allows us to discuss the optimal integration of intermittent renewables from a broad, system level point of view. This paper thus aims to provide power producers and policy makers with a new methodological scheme, still based on the LCOE but which updates this valuation technique to current energy system configurations characterized by a large share of non-dispatchable production. Quantifying and optimizing the impact of intermittent renewables integration on power system costs, risk and CO 2 emissions, the proposed methodology can be used as powerful tool of analysis for assessing environmental and energy policies.
Considering inventory distributions in a stochastic periodic inventory routing system
Yadollahi, Ehsan; Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine
2017-07-01
Dealing with the stochasticity of parameters is one of the critical issues in business and industry nowadays. Supply chain planners have difficulties in forecasting stochastic parameters of a distribution system. Demand rates of customers during their lead time are one of these parameters. In addition, holding a huge level of inventory at the retailers is costly and inefficient. To cover the uncertainty of forecasting demand rates, researchers have proposed the usage of safety stock to avoid stock-out. However, finding the precise level of safety stock depends on forecasting the statistical distribution of demand rates and their variations in different settings among the planning horizon. In this paper the demand rate distributions and its parameters are taken into account for each time period in a stochastic periodic IRP. An analysis of the achieved statistical distribution of the inventory and safety stock level is provided to measure the effects of input parameters on the output indicators. Different values for coefficient of variation are applied to the customers' demand rate in the optimization model. The outcome of the deterministic equivalent model of SPIRP is simulated in form of an illustrative case.
Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun
2018-05-01
A novel nonlinear stochastic interacting price dynamics is proposed and investigated by the bond percolation on Sierpinski gasket fractal-like lattice, aim to make a new approach to reproduce and study the complexity dynamics of real security markets. Fractal-like lattices correspond to finite graphs with vertices and edges, which are similar to fractals, and Sierpinski gasket is a well-known example of fractals. Fractional ordinal array entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity are introduced to analyze the complexity behaviors of financial signals. To deeper comprehend the fluctuation characteristics of the stochastic price evolution, the complexity analysis of random logarithmic returns and volatility are preformed, including power-law distribution, fractional sample entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity. For further verifying the rationality and validity of the developed stochastic price evolution, the actual security market dataset are also studied with the same statistical methods for comparison. The empirical results show that this stochastic price dynamics can reconstruct complexity behaviors of the actual security markets to some extent.
Fiore, Andrew M.; Swan, James W.
2018-01-01
equations of motion leads to a stochastic differential algebraic equation (SDAE) of index 1, which is integrated forward in time using a mid-point integration scheme that implicitly produces stochastic displacements consistent with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem for the constrained system. Calculations for hard sphere dispersions are illustrated and used to explore the performance of the algorithm. An open source, high-performance implementation on graphics processing units capable of dynamic simulations of millions of particles and integrated with the software package HOOMD-blue is used for benchmarking and made freely available in the supplementary material (ftp://ftp.aip.org/epaps/journ_chem_phys/E-JCPSA6-148-012805)
The Matrix exponential, Dynamic Systems and Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad
The matrix exponential can be found in various connections in analysis and control of dynamic systems. In this short note we are going to list a few examples. The matrix exponential usably pops up in connection to the sampling process, whatever it is in a deterministic or a stochastic setting...... or it is a tool for determining a Gramian matrix. This note is intended to be used in connection to the teaching post the course in Stochastic Adaptive Control (02421) given at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM), The Technical University of Denmark. This work is a result of a study of the litterature....
Maximum principle for a stochastic delayed system involving terminal state constraints.
Wen, Jiaqiang; Shi, Yufeng
2017-01-01
We investigate a stochastic optimal control problem where the controlled system is depicted as a stochastic differential delayed equation; however, at the terminal time, the state is constrained in a convex set. We firstly introduce an equivalent backward delayed system depicted as a time-delayed backward stochastic differential equation. Then a stochastic maximum principle is obtained by virtue of Ekeland's variational principle. Finally, applications to a state constrained stochastic delayed linear-quadratic control model and a production-consumption choice problem are studied to illustrate the main obtained result.
Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lei Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.
The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation
Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong
2018-02-01
In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.
Stochastic Modelling and Optimization of Complex Infrastructure Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thoft-Christensen, Palle
In this paper it is shown that recent progress in stochastic modelling and optimization in combination with advanced computer systems has now made it possible to improve the design and the maintenance strategies for infrastructure systems. The paper concentrates on highway networks and single large...... bridges. united states has perhaps the largest highway networks in the world with more than 0.5 million highway bridges; see Chase, S.B. 1999. About 40% of these bridges are considered deficient and more than $50 billion is estimated needed to correct the deficiencies; see Roberts, J.E. 2001...
Stochastic analysis of residential micro combined heat and power system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Karami, H.; Sanjari, M. J.; Gooi, H. B.
2017-01-01
In this paper the combined heat and power functionality of a fuel-cell in a residential hybrid energy system, including a battery, is studied. The demand uncertainties are modeled by investigating the stochastic load behavior by applying Monte Carlo simulation. The colonial competitive algorithm...... algorithm. The optimized scheduling of different energy resources is listed in an efficient look-up table for all time intervals. The effects of time of use and the battery efficiency and its size are investigated on the operating cost of the hybrid energy system. The results of this paper are expected...
Optimum gain and phase for stochastic cooling systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meer, S. van der.
1984-01-01
A detailed analysis of optimum gain and phase adjustment in stochastic cooling systems reveals that the result is strongly influenced by the beam feedback effect and that for optimum performance the system phase should change appreciably across each Schottky band. It is shown that the performance is not greatly diminished if a constant phase is adopted instead. On the other hand, the effect of mixing between pick-up and kicker (which produces a phase change similar to the optimum one) is shown to be less perturbing than is usually assumed, provided that the absolute value of the gain is not too far from the optimum value. (orig.)
The stochastic-cooling system for COSY-Juelich
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brittner, P.; Danzglock, R.; Hacker, H.U.; Maier, R.; Pfister, U.; Prasuhn, D.; Singer, H.; Spiess, W.; Stockhorst, H.
1991-01-01
The cooling in the Cooler Synchrotron COSY will work in the ranges: Band 1: 1 to 1.8 GHz, Band 2: 1.8 to 3 GHz. The system allows cooling in the energy range of 0.8 to 2.5 GeV. The stochastic-cooling system is under development. Cooling characteristics have been calculated. The tanks are similar to those of the CERN-AC. But the COSY parameters have required changes of the tank design. Active RF components have been developed for COSY. Measured results are presented
Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports.
Schilde, M; Doerner, K F; Hartl, R F
2011-12-01
The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances.
Parametric sensitivity analysis for stochastic molecular systems using information theoretic metrics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tsourtis, Anastasios, E-mail: tsourtis@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Crete (Greece); Pantazis, Yannis, E-mail: pantazis@math.umass.edu; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States); Harmandaris, Vagelis, E-mail: harman@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, and Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics (IACM), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH), GR-70013 Heraklion, Crete (Greece)
2015-07-07
In this paper, we present a parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) methodology for continuous time and continuous space Markov processes represented by stochastic differential equations. Particularly, we focus on stochastic molecular dynamics as described by the Langevin equation. The utilized SA method is based on the computation of the information-theoretic (and thermodynamic) quantity of relative entropy rate (RER) and the associated Fisher information matrix (FIM) between path distributions, and it is an extension of the work proposed by Y. Pantazis and M. A. Katsoulakis [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 054115 (2013)]. A major advantage of the pathwise SA method is that both RER and pathwise FIM depend only on averages of the force field; therefore, they are tractable and computable as ergodic averages from a single run of the molecular dynamics simulation both in equilibrium and in non-equilibrium steady state regimes. We validate the performance of the extended SA method to two different molecular stochastic systems, a standard Lennard-Jones fluid and an all-atom methane liquid, and compare the obtained parameter sensitivities with parameter sensitivities on three popular and well-studied observable functions, namely, the radial distribution function, the mean squared displacement, and the pressure. Results show that the RER-based sensitivities are highly correlated with the observable-based sensitivities.
Feedback optimal control of dynamic stochastic two-machine flowshop with a finite buffer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thang Diep
2010-06-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the optimization of production involving a tandem two-machine system producing a single part type, with each machine being subject to random breakdowns and repairs. An analytical model is formulated with a view to solving an optimal stochastic production problem of the system with machines having up-downtime non-exponential distributions. The model developed is obtained by using a dynamic programming approach and a semi-Markov process. The control problem aims to find the production rates needed by the machines to meet the demand rate, through a minimization of the inventory/shortage cost. Using the Bellman principle, the optimality conditions obtained satisfy the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, which depends on time and system states, and ultimately, leads to a feedback control. Consequently, the new model enables us to improve the coefficient of variation (CVup/down to be less than one while it is equal to one in Markov model. Heuristics methods are used to involve the problem because of the difficulty of the analytical model using several states, and to show what control law should be used in each system state (i.e., including Kanban, feedback and CONWIP control. Numerical methods are used to solve the optimality conditions and to show how a machine should produce.
Stochastic feeding dynamics arise from the need for information and energy.
Scholz, Monika; Dinner, Aaron R; Levine, Erel; Biron, David
2017-08-29
Animals regulate their food intake in response to the available level of food. Recent observations of feeding dynamics in small animals showed feeding patterns of bursts and pauses, but their function is unknown. Here, we present a data-driven decision-theoretical model of feeding in Caenorhabditis elegans Our central assumption is that food intake serves a dual purpose: to gather information about the external food level and to ingest food when the conditions are good. The model recapitulates experimentally observed feeding patterns. It naturally implements trade-offs between speed versus accuracy and exploration versus exploitation in responding to a dynamic environment. We find that the model predicts three distinct regimes in responding to a dynamical environment, with a transition region where animals respond stochastically to periodic signals. This stochastic response accounts for previously unexplained experimental data.
Kernel methods and flexible inference for complex stochastic dynamics
Capobianco, Enrico
2008-07-01
Approximation theory suggests that series expansions and projections represent standard tools for random process applications from both numerical and statistical standpoints. Such instruments emphasize the role of both sparsity and smoothness for compression purposes, the decorrelation power achieved in the expansion coefficients space compared to the signal space, and the reproducing kernel property when some special conditions are met. We consider these three aspects central to the discussion in this paper, and attempt to analyze the characteristics of some known approximation instruments employed in a complex application domain such as financial market time series. Volatility models are often built ad hoc, parametrically and through very sophisticated methodologies. But they can hardly deal with stochastic processes with regard to non-Gaussianity, covariance non-stationarity or complex dependence without paying a big price in terms of either model mis-specification or computational efficiency. It is thus a good idea to look at other more flexible inference tools; hence the strategy of combining greedy approximation and space dimensionality reduction techniques, which are less dependent on distributional assumptions and more targeted to achieve computationally efficient performances. Advantages and limitations of their use will be evaluated by looking at algorithmic and model building strategies, and by reporting statistical diagnostics.
Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.
2016-01-01
We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.
Stochastic Wilson–Cowan models of neuronal network dynamics with memory and delay
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goychuk, Igor; Goychuk, Andriy
2015-01-01
We consider a simple Markovian class of the stochastic Wilson–Cowan type models of neuronal network dynamics, which incorporates stochastic delay caused by the existence of a refractory period of neurons. From the point of view of the dynamics of the individual elements, we are dealing with a network of non-Markovian stochastic two-state oscillators with memory, which are coupled globally in a mean-field fashion. This interrelation of a higher-dimensional Markovian and lower-dimensional non-Markovian dynamics is discussed in its relevance to the general problem of the network dynamics of complex elements possessing memory. The simplest model of this class is provided by a three-state Markovian neuron with one refractory state, which causes firing delay with an exponentially decaying memory within the two-state reduced model. This basic model is used to study critical avalanche dynamics (the noise sustained criticality) in a balanced feedforward network consisting of the excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Such avalanches emerge due to the network size dependent noise (mesoscopic noise). Numerical simulations reveal an intermediate power law in the distribution of avalanche sizes with the critical exponent around −1.16. We show that this power law is robust upon a variation of the refractory time over several orders of magnitude. However, the avalanche time distribution is biexponential. It does not reflect any genuine power law dependence. (paper)
Antisymmetrized molecular dynamics of wave packets with stochastic incorporation of Vlasov equation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ono, Akira; Horiuchi, Hisashi.
1996-01-01
The first purpose of this report is to present an extended AMD model which can generally describe such minor branching processes by removing the restriction on the one-body distribution function. This is done not by generalizing the wave packets to arbitrary single-particle wave functions but by representing the diffused and/or deformed wave packet as an ensemble of Gaussian wave packets. In other words, stochastic displacements are given to the wave packets in phase space so that the ensemble-average of the time evolution of the one-body distribution function is essentially equivalent to the solution of Vlasov equation which does not have any restriction on the shape of wave packets. This new model is called AMD-V. Although AMD-V is equivalent to Vlasov equation in the instantaneous time evolution of the one-body distribution function for an AMD wave function, AMD-V describes the branching into channels and the fluctuation of the mean field which are caused by the spreading or the splitting of the single-particle wave function. The second purpose of this report is to show the drastic effect of this new stochastic process of wave packet splitting on the dynamics of heavy ion collisions, especially in the fragmentation mechanism. We take the 40 Ca + 40 Ca system at the incident energy 35 MeV/nucleon. It will be shown that the reproduction of data by the AMD-V calculation is surprisingly good. We will see that the effect of the wave packet diffusion is crucially important to remove the spurious binary feature of the AMD calculation and to enable the multi-fragment final state. (J.P.N.)
Stochastic resonance and vibrational resonance in an excitable system: The golden mean barrier
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stan, Cristina; Cristescu, C.P.; Alexandroaei, D.; Agop, M.
2009-01-01
We report on stochastic resonance and vibrational resonance in an electric charge double layer configuration as usually found in electrical discharges, biological cell membranes, chemical systems and nanostructures. The experiment and numerical computation show the existence of a barrier expressible in terms of the golden mean above which the two phenomena do not take place. We consider this as new evidence for the importance of the golden mean criticality in the oscillatory dynamics, in agreement with El Naschie's E-infinity theory. In our experiment, the dynamics of a charge double layer generated in the inter-anode space of a twin electrical discharge is investigated under noise-harmonic and harmonic-harmonic perturbations. In the first case, a Gaussian noise can enhance the response of the system to a weak injected periodic signal, a clear mark of stochastic resonance. In the second case, similar enhancement can appear if the noise is replaced by a harmonic perturbation with a frequency much higher than the frequency of the weak oscillation. The amplitude of the low frequency oscillation shows a maximum versus the amplitude of the high frequency perturbation demonstrating vibrational resonance. In order to model these dynamics, we derived an excitable system by modifying a biased van der Pol oscillator. The computational study considers the behaviour of this system under the same types of perturbation as in the experimental investigations and is found to give consistent results in both situations.
THE GROSSER ALETSCHGLETSCHER DYNAMICS: FROM A “MINIMAL MODEL” TO A STOCHASTIC EQUATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander V. Kislov
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Mountain glaciers manifest oscillations at different time-scales. Apart from synchronous reaction to lasting changes, there is asynchronism between climatic forcing and observed anomalies of the glaciers. Based on general theories on the laws of temporal dynamics relating to massive inertial objects, the observed interannual changes of glacier length could result from the accumulation of small anomalies in the heat/water fluxes. Despite the fact that the original model of the dynamics of mountain glaciers is deterministically based on the physical law of conservation of water mass, the model of length change is interpreted as stochastic; from this perspective, it is the Langevin equation that incorporates the action of temperature anomalies and precipitation like random white noise. The process is analogous to Brownian motion. Under these conditions, the Grosser Aletschgletscher (selected as an example is represented by a system undergoing a random walk. It was shown that the possible range of variability covers the observed interval of length fluctuations.
Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Sughiyama, Yuki
2017-07-01
Adaptation in a fluctuating environment is a process of fueling environmental information to gain fitness. Living systems have gradually developed strategies for adaptation from random and passive diversification of the phenotype to more proactive decision making, in which environmental information is sensed and exploited more actively and effectively. Understanding the fundamental relation between fitness and information is therefore crucial to clarify the limits and universal properties of adaptation. In this work, we elucidate the underlying stochastic and information-thermodynamic structure in this process, by deriving causal fluctuation relations (FRs) of fitness and information. Combined with a duality between phenotypic and environmental dynamics, the FRs reveal the limit of fitness gain, the relation of time reversibility with the achievability of the limit, and the possibility and condition for gaining excess fitness due to environmental fluctuation. The loss of fitness due to causal constraints and the limited capacity of real organisms is shown to be the difference between time-forward and time-backward path probabilities of phenotypic and environmental dynamics. Furthermore, the FRs generalize the concept of the evolutionary stable state (ESS) for fluctuating environment by giving the probability that the optimal strategy on average can be invaded by a suboptimal one owing to rare environmental fluctuation. These results clarify the information-thermodynamic structures in adaptation and evolution.
Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.
2014-01-01
There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Van Kessel, L.B.M.
2003-06-11
with the on-line calorific value sensor from chapter 2 and a validated dynamic model of the process is available, the theory from stochastic processes can be applied to MSWC. This new application field of stochastics is discussed in chapter 4. The results obtained in chapter 2 will be used in this analysis. Also new linear transfer functions for thermal processes will be given and applied to MSWC. Finally, applications of the new developed tools will be discussed. As already mentioned, the validation experiments lead to the conclusion that the dynamics of the combustion process can change when the primary air temperature changes. This was a new result, which has never been reported in literature before. For that reason during the research it was decided to start an extensive study into the influence of the primary air temperature on the combustion process. This has been performed by using laboratory experiments. In chapter 5 the results from this search will be presented. The existing theory for combustion of solid fuels is extended with a qualitative as well as a quantitative description of the influence of primary preheating. The new theory is used to explain observations from real plants and the results from system identification. Furthermore, the value of laboratory experiments to simulate the real combustion process on a grate is discussed.
Markov stochasticity coordinates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eliazar, Iddo
2017-01-01
Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.
Markov stochasticity coordinates
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com
2017-01-15
Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.
Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei
2017-12-01
Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brett, Tobias; Galla, Tobias
2014-01-01
We present a heuristic derivation of Gaussian approximations for stochastic chemical reaction systems with distributed delay. In particular, we derive the corresponding chemical Langevin equation. Due to the non-Markovian character of the underlying dynamics, these equations are integro-differential equations, and the noise in the Gaussian approximation is coloured. Following on from the chemical Langevin equation, a further reduction leads to the linear-noise approximation. We apply the formalism to a delay variant of the celebrated Brusselator model, and show how it can be used to characterise noise-driven quasi-cycles, as well as noise-triggered spiking. We find surprisingly intricate dependence of the typical frequency of quasi-cycles on the delay period
Brett, Tobias; Galla, Tobias
2014-03-28
We present a heuristic derivation of Gaussian approximations for stochastic chemical reaction systems with distributed delay. In particular, we derive the corresponding chemical Langevin equation. Due to the non-Markovian character of the underlying dynamics, these equations are integro-differential equations, and the noise in the Gaussian approximation is coloured. Following on from the chemical Langevin equation, a further reduction leads to the linear-noise approximation. We apply the formalism to a delay variant of the celebrated Brusselator model, and show how it can be used to characterise noise-driven quasi-cycles, as well as noise-triggered spiking. We find surprisingly intricate dependence of the typical frequency of quasi-cycles on the delay period.
A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xing Zhao
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.
Pesin’s entropy formula for stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘培东
1996-01-01
Pesin’s entropy formula relating entropy and Lyapunov exponents within the context of random dynamical systems generated by (discrete or continuous) stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms (including solution flows of stochastic differential equations on manifolds) is proved.
A stochastic killing system for biological containment of Escherichia coli
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klemm, P.; Jensen, Lars Bogø; Molin, Søren
1995-01-01
Bacteria with a stochastic conditional lethal containment system have been constructed. The invertible switch promoter located upstream of the fimA gene from Escherichia coli was inserted as expression cassette in front of the Lethal gef gene deleted of its own natural promoter. The resulting...... fusion was placed on a plasmid and transformed to E. coli. The phenotype connected with the presence of such a plasmid was to reduce the population growth rate with increasing significance as the cell growth rate was reduced. In very fast growing cells, there was no measurable effect on growth rate. When...
Hitting probabilities for nonlinear systems of stochastic waves
Dalang, Robert C
2015-01-01
The authors consider a d-dimensional random field u = \\{u(t,x)\\} that solves a non-linear system of stochastic wave equations in spatial dimensions k \\in \\{1,2,3\\}, driven by a spatially homogeneous Gaussian noise that is white in time. They mainly consider the case where the spatial covariance is given by a Riesz kernel with exponent \\beta. Using Malliavin calculus, they establish upper and lower bounds on the probabilities that the random field visits a deterministic subset of \\mathbb{R}^d, in terms, respectively, of Hausdorff measure and Newtonian capacity of this set. The dimension that ap
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xinguo
2014-01-01
. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocations and water curtailments. Dynamic allocation problems with inclusion of groundwater resources proved to be more complex to solve with SDP than pure surface water allocation problems due...... to head-dependent pumping costs. These dynamic pumping costs strongly affect the total costs and can lead to non-convexity of the future cost function. The water user groups (agriculture, industry, domestic) are characterized by inelastic demands and fixed water allocation and water supply curtailment...
Emergence of dynamic cooperativity in the stochastic kinetics of fluctuating enzymes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, Ashutosh; Chatterjee, Sambarta; Nandi, Mintu; Dua, Arti
2016-01-01
Dynamic co-operativity in monomeric enzymes is characterized in terms of a non-Michaelis-Menten kinetic behaviour. The latter is believed to be associated with mechanisms that include multiple reaction pathways due to enzymatic conformational fluctuations. Recent advances in single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy have provided new fundamental insights on the possible mechanisms underlying reactions catalyzed by fluctuating enzymes. Here, we present a bottom-up approach to understand enzyme turnover kinetics at physiologically relevant mesoscopic concentrations informed by mechanisms extracted from single-molecule stochastic trajectories. The stochastic approach, presented here, shows the emergence of dynamic co-operativity in terms of a slowing down of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) kinetics resulting in negative co-operativity. For fewer enzymes, dynamic co-operativity emerges due to the combined effects of enzymatic conformational fluctuations and molecular discreteness. The increase in the number of enzymes, however, suppresses the effect of enzymatic conformational fluctuations such that dynamic co-operativity emerges solely due to the discrete changes in the number of reacting species. These results confirm that the turnover kinetics of fluctuating enzyme based on the parallel-pathway MM mechanism switches over to the single-pathway MM mechanism with the increase in the number of enzymes. For large enzyme numbers, convergence to the exact MM equation occurs in the limit of very high substrate concentration as the stochastic kinetics approaches the deterministic behaviour.
Emergence of dynamic cooperativity in the stochastic kinetics of fluctuating enzymes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kumar, Ashutosh; Chatterjee, Sambarta; Nandi, Mintu; Dua, Arti, E-mail: arti@iitm.ac.in [Department of Chemistry, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Chennai 600036 (India)
2016-08-28
Dynamic co-operativity in monomeric enzymes is characterized in terms of a non-Michaelis-Menten kinetic behaviour. The latter is believed to be associated with mechanisms that include multiple reaction pathways due to enzymatic conformational fluctuations. Recent advances in single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy have provided new fundamental insights on the possible mechanisms underlying reactions catalyzed by fluctuating enzymes. Here, we present a bottom-up approach to understand enzyme turnover kinetics at physiologically relevant mesoscopic concentrations informed by mechanisms extracted from single-molecule stochastic trajectories. The stochastic approach, presented here, shows the emergence of dynamic co-operativity in terms of a slowing down of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) kinetics resulting in negative co-operativity. For fewer enzymes, dynamic co-operativity emerges due to the combined effects of enzymatic conformational fluctuations and molecular discreteness. The increase in the number of enzymes, however, suppresses the effect of enzymatic conformational fluctuations such that dynamic co-operativity emerges solely due to the discrete changes in the number of reacting species. These results confirm that the turnover kinetics of fluctuating enzyme based on the parallel-pathway MM mechanism switches over to the single-pathway MM mechanism with the increase in the number of enzymes. For large enzyme numbers, convergence to the exact MM equation occurs in the limit of very high substrate concentration as the stochastic kinetics approaches the deterministic behaviour.
Emergence of dynamic cooperativity in the stochastic kinetics of fluctuating enzymes
Kumar, Ashutosh; Chatterjee, Sambarta; Nandi, Mintu; Dua, Arti
2016-08-01
Dynamic co-operativity in monomeric enzymes is characterized in terms of a non-Michaelis-Menten kinetic behaviour. The latter is believed to be associated with mechanisms that include multiple reaction pathways due to enzymatic conformational fluctuations. Recent advances in single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy have provided new fundamental insights on the possible mechanisms underlying reactions catalyzed by fluctuating enzymes. Here, we present a bottom-up approach to understand enzyme turnover kinetics at physiologically relevant mesoscopic concentrations informed by mechanisms extracted from single-molecule stochastic trajectories. The stochastic approach, presented here, shows the emergence of dynamic co-operativity in terms of a slowing down of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) kinetics resulting in negative co-operativity. For fewer enzymes, dynamic co-operativity emerges due to the combined effects of enzymatic conformational fluctuations and molecular discreteness. The increase in the number of enzymes, however, suppresses the effect of enzymatic conformational fluctuations such that dynamic co-operativity emerges solely due to the discrete changes in the number of reacting species. These results confirm that the turnover kinetics of fluctuating enzyme based on the parallel-pathway MM mechanism switches over to the single-pathway MM mechanism with the increase in the number of enzymes. For large enzyme numbers, convergence to the exact MM equation occurs in the limit of very high substrate concentration as the stochastic kinetics approaches the deterministic behaviour.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hsiang, J.-T.; Hu, B.L.
2015-01-01
The existence and uniqueness of a steady state for nonequilibrium systems (NESS) is a fundamental subject and a main theme of research in statistical mechanics for decades. For Gaussian systems, such as a chain of classical harmonic oscillators connected at each end to a heat bath, and for classical anharmonic oscillators under specified conditions, definitive answers exist in the form of proven theorems. Answering this question for quantum many-body systems poses a challenge for the present. In this work we address this issue by deriving the stochastic equations for the reduced system with self-consistent backaction from the two baths, calculating the energy flow from one bath to the chain to the other bath, and exhibiting a power balance relation in the total (chain + baths) system which testifies to the existence of a NESS in this system at late times. Its insensitivity to the initial conditions of the chain corroborates to its uniqueness. The functional method we adopt here entails the use of the influence functional, the coarse-grained and stochastic effective actions, from which one can derive the stochastic equations and calculate the average values of physical variables in open quantum systems. This involves both taking the expectation values of quantum operators of the system and the distributional averages of stochastic variables stemming from the coarse-grained environment. This method though formal in appearance is compact and complete. It can also easily accommodate perturbative techniques and diagrammatic methods from field theory. Taken all together it provides a solid platform for carrying out systematic investigations into the nonequilibrium dynamics of open quantum systems and quantum thermodynamics. -- Highlights: •Nonequilibrium steady state (NESS) for interacting quantum many-body systems. •Derivation of stochastic equations for quantum oscillator chain with two heat baths. •Explicit calculation of the energy flow from one bath to the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Jianlong; Zeng Lingzao
2010-01-01
We discuss in detail the effects of the multi-time-delayed feedback driven by an aperiodic signal on the output of a stochastic resonance (SR) system. The effective potential function and dynamical probability density function (PDF) are derived. To measure the performance of the SR system in the presence of a binary random signal, the bit error rate (BER) defined by the dynamical PDF is employed, as is commonly used in digital communications. We find that the delay time, strength of the feedback, and number of time-delayed terms can change the effective potential function and the effective amplitude of the signal, and then affect the BER of the SR system. The numerical simulations strongly support the theoretical results. The goal of this investigation is to explore the effects of the multi-time-delayed feedback on SR and give a guidance to nonlinear systems in the application of information processing.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Homem-de-Mello, Tito [University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Chicago, IL (United States); Matos, Vitor L. de; Finardi, Erlon C. [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, LabPlan - Laboratorio de Planejamento de Sistemas de Energia Eletrica, Florianopolis (Brazil)
2011-03-15
The long-term hydrothermal scheduling is one of the most important problems to be solved in the power systems area. This problem aims to obtain an optimal policy, under water (energy) resources uncertainty, for hydro and thermal plants over a multi-annual planning horizon. It is natural to model the problem as a multi-stage stochastic program, a class of models for which algorithms have been developed. The original stochastic process is represented by a finite scenario tree and, because of the large number of stages, a sampling-based method such as the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm is required. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, we study the application of two alternative sampling strategies to the standard Monte Carlo - namely, Latin hypercube sampling and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo - for the generation of scenario trees, as well as for the sampling of scenarios that is part of the SDDP algorithm. Secondly, we discuss the formulation of stopping criteria for the optimization algorithm in terms of statistical hypothesis tests, which allows us to propose an alternative criterion that is more robust than that originally proposed for the SDDP. We test these ideas on a problem associated with the whole Brazilian power system, with a three-year planning horizon. (orig.)
Stochastic entangled chain dynamics of dense polymer solutions.
Kivotides, Demosthenes; Wilkin, S Louise; Theofanous, Theo G
2010-10-14
We propose an adjustable-parameter-free, entangled chain dynamics model of dense polymer solutions. The model includes the self-consistent dynamics of molecular chains and solvent by describing the former via coarse-grained polymer dynamics that incorporate hydrodynamic interaction effects, and the latter via the forced Stokes equation. Real chain elasticity is modeled via the inclusion of a Pincus regime in the polymer's force-extension curve. Excluded volume effects are taken into account via the combined action of coarse-grained intermolecular potentials and explicit geometric tracking of chain entanglements. We demonstrate that entanglements are responsible for a new (compared to phantom chain dynamics), slow relaxation mode whose characteristic time scale agrees very well with experiment. Similarly good agreement between theory and experiment is also obtained for the equilibrium chain size. We develop methods for the solution of the model in periodic flow domains and apply them to the computation of entangled polymer solutions in equilibrium. We show that the number of entanglements Π agrees well with the number of entanglements expected on the basis of tube theory, satisfactorily reproducing the latter's scaling of Π with the polymer volume fraction φ. Our model predicts diminishing chain size with concentration, thus vindicating Flory's suggestion of excluded volume effects screening in dense solutions. The predicted scaling of chain size with φ is consistent with the heuristic, Flory theory based value.
Modelling biochemical reaction systems by stochastic differential equations with reflection.
Niu, Yuanling; Burrage, Kevin; Chen, Luonan
2016-05-07
In this paper, we gave a new framework for modelling and simulating biochemical reaction systems by stochastic differential equations with reflection not in a heuristic way but in a mathematical way. The model is computationally efficient compared with the discrete-state Markov chain approach, and it ensures that both analytic and numerical solutions remain in a biologically plausible region. Specifically, our model mathematically ensures that species numbers lie in the domain D, which is a physical constraint for biochemical reactions, in contrast to the previous models. The domain D is actually obtained according to the structure of the corresponding chemical Langevin equations, i.e., the boundary is inherent in the biochemical reaction system. A variant of projection method was employed to solve the reflected stochastic differential equation model, and it includes three simple steps, i.e., Euler-Maruyama method was applied to the equations first, and then check whether or not the point lies within the domain D, and if not perform an orthogonal projection. It is found that the projection onto the closure D¯ is the solution to a convex quadratic programming problem. Thus, existing methods for the convex quadratic programming problem can be employed for the orthogonal projection map. Numerical tests on several important problems in biological systems confirmed the efficiency and accuracy of this approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Discrete changes of current statistics in periodically driven stochastic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chernyak, Vladimir Y; Sinitsyn, N A
2010-01-01
We demonstrate that the counting statistics of currents in periodically driven ergodic stochastic systems can show sharp changes of some of its properties in response to continuous changes of the driving protocol. To describe this effect, we introduce a new topological phase factor in the evolution of the moment generating function which is akin to the topological geometric phase in the evolution of a periodically driven quantum mechanical system with time-reversal symmetry. This phase leads to the prediction of a sign change for the difference of the probabilities to find even and odd numbers of particles transferred in a stochastic system in response to cyclic evolution of control parameters. The driving protocols that lead to this sign change should enclose specific degeneracy points in the space of control parameters. The relation between the topology of the paths in the control parameter space and the sign changes can be described in terms of the first Stiefel–Whitney class of topological invariants. (letter)
What can go wrong in stochastic cooling systems
AUTHOR|(CDS)2108502
2016-01-01
This paper discusses very practical aspects of stochastic cooling systems both during construction, running-in, operation and trouble shooting. Due to the high electronic gain, high sensitivity and large bandwidth of such systems, precautions have to be taken to avoid all sorts of EMI/EMC related problems as well as crosstalk and self-oscillations. Since un-intended beam heating is always much more efficient than the desired cooling the overall performance depends critically on avoiding this heating which often takes places outside the nominal frequency band of operation. Another important aspect is “cross heating”, i.e., unavoidable crosstalk from longitudinal to transverse systems and vice versa. Obviously adequate measurement procedures with beam for gain phase and optimum delay are mandatory and certain caveats and hints are given. The paper concludes with a listing of unusual and unexpected problems found during many years of operation of such systems at CERN.
A condition-based maintenance policy for stochastically deteriorating systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grall, A.; Berenguer, C.; Dieulle, L.
2002-01-01
We focus on the analytical modeling of a condition-based inspection/replacement policy for a stochastically and continuously deteriorating single-unit system. We consider both the replacement threshold and the inspection schedule as decision variables for this maintenance problem and we propose to implement the maintenance policy using a multi-level control-limit rule. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long run expected maintenance cost per unit time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived, supported by the existence of a stationary law for the maintained system state. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed policy and confirm that the maintenance cost rate on an infinite horizon can be minimized by a joint optimization of the maintenance structure thresholds, or equivalently by a joint optimization of a system replacement threshold and the aperiodic inspection schedule
Thomas, Philipp; Matuschek, Hannes; Grima, Ramon
2012-01-01
The accepted stochastic descriptions of biochemical dynamics under well-mixed conditions are given by the Chemical Master Equation and the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm, which are equivalent. The latter is a Monte-Carlo method, which, despite enjoying broad availability in a large number of existing software packages, is computationally expensive due to the huge amounts of ensemble averaging required for obtaining accurate statistical information. The former is a set of coupled differential-difference equations for the probability of the system being in any one of the possible mesoscopic states; these equations are typically computationally intractable because of the inherently large state space. Here we introduce the software package intrinsic Noise Analyzer (iNA), which allows for systematic analysis of stochastic biochemical kinetics by means of van Kampen's system size expansion of the Chemical Master Equation. iNA is platform independent and supports the popular SBML format natively. The present implementation is the first to adopt a complementary approach that combines state-of-the-art analysis tools using the computer algebra system Ginac with traditional methods of stochastic simulation. iNA integrates two approximation methods based on the system size expansion, the Linear Noise Approximation and effective mesoscopic rate equations, which to-date have not been available to non-expert users, into an easy-to-use graphical user interface. In particular, the present methods allow for quick approximate analysis of time-dependent mean concentrations, variances, covariances and correlations coefficients, which typically outperforms stochastic simulations. These analytical tools are complemented by automated multi-core stochastic simulations with direct statistical evaluation and visualization. We showcase iNA's performance by using it to explore the stochastic properties of cooperative and non-cooperative enzyme kinetics and a gene network associated with
Stochastic Mesocortical Dynamics and Robustness of Working Memory during Delay-Period.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melissa Reneaux
Full Text Available The role of prefronto-mesoprefrontal system in the dopaminergic modulation of working memory during delayed response tasks is well-known. Recently, a dynamical model of the closed-loop mesocortical circuit has been proposed which employs a deterministic framework to elucidate the system's behavior in a qualitative manner. Under natural conditions, noise emanating from various sources affects the circuit's functioning to a great extent. Accordingly in the present study, we reformulate the model into a stochastic framework and investigate its steady state properties in the presence of constant background noise during delay-period. From the steady state distribution, global potential landscape and signal-to-noise ratio are obtained which help in defining robustness of the circuit dynamics. This provides insight into the robustness of working memory during delay-period against its disruption due to background noise. The findings reveal that the global profile of circuit's robustness is predominantly governed by the level of D1 receptor activity and high D1 receptor stimulation favors the working memory-associated sustained-firing state over the spontaneous-activity state of the system. Moreover, the circuit's robustness is further fine-tuned by the levels of excitatory and inhibitory activities in a way such that the robustness of sustained-firing state exhibits an inverted-U shaped profile with respect to D1 receptor stimulation. It is predicted that the most robust working memory is formed possibly at a subtle ratio of the excitatory and inhibitory activities achieved at a critical level of D1 receptor stimulation. The study also paves a way to understand various cognitive deficits observed in old-age, acute stress and schizophrenia and suggests possible mechanistic routes to the working memory impairments based on the circuit's robustness profile.
Stochastic Mesocortical Dynamics and Robustness of Working Memory during Delay-Period.
Reneaux, Melissa; Gupta, Rahul; Karmeshu
2015-01-01
The role of prefronto-mesoprefrontal system in the dopaminergic modulation of working memory during delayed response tasks is well-known. Recently, a dynamical model of the closed-loop mesocortical circuit has been proposed which employs a deterministic framework to elucidate the system's behavior in a qualitative manner. Under natural conditions, noise emanating from various sources affects the circuit's functioning to a great extent. Accordingly in the present study, we reformulate the model into a stochastic framework and investigate its steady state properties in the presence of constant background noise during delay-period. From the steady state distribution, global potential landscape and signal-to-noise ratio are obtained which help in defining robustness of the circuit dynamics. This provides insight into the robustness of working memory during delay-period against its disruption due to background noise. The findings reveal that the global profile of circuit's robustness is predominantly governed by the level of D1 receptor activity and high D1 receptor stimulation favors the working memory-associated sustained-firing state over the spontaneous-activity state of the system. Moreover, the circuit's robustness is further fine-tuned by the levels of excitatory and inhibitory activities in a way such that the robustness of sustained-firing state exhibits an inverted-U shaped profile with respect to D1 receptor stimulation. It is predicted that the most robust working memory is formed possibly at a subtle ratio of the excitatory and inhibitory activities achieved at a critical level of D1 receptor stimulation. The study also paves a way to understand various cognitive deficits observed in old-age, acute stress and schizophrenia and suggests possible mechanistic routes to the working memory impairments based on the circuit's robustness profile.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Ning; ZHANG Hui-Min; LIU Zhi-Qiang; DING Xue-Li; YANG Ming-Hao; GU Hua-Guang; REN Wei
2009-01-01
Dissolved cardiac myocytes can couple together and generate synchronous beatings in culture. We observed a synchronized early after-depolarization(EAD)-like rhythm in cultured cardiac myocytes and reproduced the experimental observation in a network mathematical model whose dynamics are close to a Hopf bifurcation. The mechanism for this EAD-like rhythm is attributed to noised-induced stochastic alternatings between the focus and the limit cycle. These results provide novel understandings for pathological heart rhythms like the early immature beatings.
Raso , L.; Malaterre , P.O.; Bader , J.C.
2017-01-01
International audience; This article presents an innovative streamflow process model for use in reservoir operational rule design in stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP). Model features, which can be applied independently, are (1) a multiplicative process model for the forward phase and its linearized version for the backward phase; and (2) a nonuniform time-step length that is inversely proportional to seasonal variability. The advantages are (1) guaranteeing positive streamflow values...
Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons
Guillermo Gallego; Garrett van Ryzin
1994-01-01
In many industries, managers face the problem of selling a given stock of items by a deadline. We investigate the problem of dynamically pricing such inventories when demand is price sensitive and stochastic and the firm's objective is to maximize expected revenues. Examples that fit this framework include retailers selling fashion and seasonal goods and the travel and leisure industry, which markets space such as seats on airline flights, cabins on vacation cruises, and rooms in hotels that ...
Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators.
Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M; Moraes, A
2015-06-28
This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.
Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators
Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, A.
2015-06-01
This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.
Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Le Maître, O. P., E-mail: olm@limsi.fr [LIMSI-CNRS, UPR 3251, Orsay (France); Knio, O. M., E-mail: knio@duke.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Moraes, A., E-mail: alvaro.moraesgutierrez@kaust.edu.sa [King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)
2015-06-28
This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.
Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators
Le Maî tre, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, Alvaro
2015-01-01
This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.
Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J
2003-01-01
We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.
Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems
In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio
2009-01-01
This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.
Modelling the heat dynamics of buildings using stochastic
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Madsen, Henrik
2000-01-01
This paper describes the continuous time modelling of the heat dynamics of a building. The considered building is a residential like test house divided into two test rooms with a water based central heating. Each test room is divided into thermal zones in order to describe both short and long term...... variations. Besides modelling the heat transfer between thermal zones, attention is put on modelling the heat input from radiators and solar radiation. The applied modelling procedure is based on collected building performance data and statistical methods. The statistical methods are used in parameter...
Stochastic Calculus: Application to Dynamic Bifurcations and Threshold Crossings
Jansons, Kalvis M.; Lythe, G. D.
1998-01-01
For the dynamic pitchfork bifurcation in the presence of white noise, the statistics of the last time at zero are calculated as a function of the noise level ∈ and the rate of change of the parameter μ. The threshold crossing problem used, for example, to model the firing of a single cortical neuron is considered, concentrating on quantities that may be experimentally measurable but have so far received little attention. Expressions for the statistics of pre-threshold excursions, occupation density, and last crossing time of zero are compared with results from numerical generation of paths.
Stochastic transport in complex systems from molecules to vehicles
Schadschneider, Andreas; Nishinari, Katsuhiro
2011-01-01
What is common between a motor protein, an ant and a vehicle? Each can be modelled as a"self-propelled particle"whose forward movement can be hindered by another in front of it. Traffic flow of such interacting driven"particles"has become an active area of interdisciplinary research involving physics, civil engineering and computer science. We present a unified pedagogical introduction to the analytical and computational methods which are currently used for studying such complex systems far from equilibrium. We also review a number of applications ranging from intra-cellular molecular motor transport in living systems to ant trails and vehicular traffic. Researchers working on complex systems, in general, and on classical stochastic transport, in particular, will find the pedagogical style, scholarly critical overview and extensive list of references extremely useful.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sutrisno; Widowati; Solikhin
2016-01-01
In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in stochastic dynamic optimization form to determine the optimal strategy for an integrated single product inventory control problem and supplier selection problem where the demand and purchasing cost parameters are random. For each time period, by using the proposed model, we decide the optimal supplier and calculate the optimal product volume purchased from the optimal supplier so that the inventory level will be located at some point as close as possible to the reference point with minimal cost. We use stochastic dynamic programming to solve this problem and give several numerical experiments to evaluate the model. From the results, for each time period, the proposed model was generated the optimal supplier and the inventory level was tracked the reference point well. (paper)
Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro
2017-07-01
We analyze the thermodynamic properties of stochastic differential equations driven by smooth Poisson-Kac fluctuations, and their convergence, in the Kac limit, towards Wiener-driven Langevin equations. Using a Markovian embedding of the stochastic work variable, it is proved that the Kac-limit convergence implies a Stratonovich formulation of the limit Langevin equations, in accordance with the Wong-Zakai theorem. Exact moment analysis applied to the case of a purely frictional system shows the occurrence of different regimes and crossover phenomena in the parameter space.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Argentiero, Amedeo; Bovi, Maurizio; Cerqueti, Roy
2016-01-01
This paper examines psycho-induced overconsumption in a dynamic stochastic context. As emphasized by well-established psychological results, these psycho-distortions derive from a decision making based on simple rules-of-thumb, not on analytically sounded optimizations. To our end, we therefore compare two New Keynesian models. The first is populated by optimizing Muth-rational agents and acts as the normative benchmark. The other is a “psycho-perturbed” version of the benchmark that allows for the potential presence of overoptimism and, hence, of overconsumption. The parameters of these models are estimated through a Bayesian-type procedure, and performances are evaluated by employing an entropy measure. Such methodologies are particularly appropriate here since they take in full consideration the complexity generated by the randomness of the considered systems. In particular, they let to derive a not negligible information on the size and on the cyclical properties of the biases. In line with cognitive psychology suggestions our evidence shows that the overoptimism/overconsumption is: widespread—it is detected in nation-wide data; persistent—it emerges in full-sample estimations; it moves according to the expected cyclical behavior—larger in booms, and it disappears in crises. Moreover, by taking into account the effect of these psycho-biases, the model fits actual data better than the benchmark. All considered, then, enhancing the existing literature our findings: i) sustain the importance of inserting psychological distortions in macroeconomic models and ii) underline that system dynamics and psycho biases have statistically significant and economically important connections.
Babaee, Hessam; Choi, Minseok; Sapsis, Themistoklis P.; Karniadakis, George Em
2017-09-01
We develop a new robust methodology for the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations based on the dynamically-orthogonal (DO) and bi-orthogonal (BO) methods [1-3]. Both approaches are variants of a generalized Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion in which both the stochastic coefficients and the spatial basis evolve according to system dynamics, hence, capturing the low-dimensional structure of the solution. The DO and BO formulations are mathematically equivalent [3], but they exhibit computationally complimentary properties. Specifically, the BO formulation may fail due to crossing of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, while both BO and DO become unstable when there is a high condition number of the covariance matrix or zero eigenvalues. To this end, we combine the two methods into a robust hybrid framework and in addition we employ a pseudo-inverse technique to invert the covariance matrix. The robustness of the proposed method stems from addressing the following issues in the DO/BO formulation: (i) eigenvalue crossing: we resolve the issue of eigenvalue crossing in the BO formulation by switching to the DO near eigenvalue crossing using the equivalence theorem and switching back to BO when the distance between eigenvalues is larger than a threshold value; (ii) ill-conditioned covariance matrix: we utilize a pseudo-inverse strategy to invert the covariance matrix; (iii) adaptivity: we utilize an adaptive strategy to add/remove modes to resolve the covariance matrix up to a threshold value. In particular, we introduce a soft-threshold criterion to allow the system to adapt to the newly added/removed mode and therefore avoid repetitive and unnecessary mode addition/removal. When the total variance approaches zero, we show that the DO/BO formulation becomes equivalent to the evolution equation of the Optimally Time-Dependent modes [4]. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed methodology with several numerical examples, namely (i) stochastic Burgers equation: we
Nonlinear stochastic systems with incomplete information filtering and control
Shen, Bo; Shu, Huisheng
2013-01-01
Nonlinear Stochastic Processes addresses the frequently-encountered problem of incomplete information. The causes of this problem considered here include: missing measurements; sensor delays and saturation; quantization effects; and signal sampling. Divided into three parts, the text begins with a focus on H∞ filtering and control problems associated with general classes of nonlinear stochastic discrete-time systems. Filtering problems are considered in the second part, and in the third the theory and techniques previously developed are applied to the solution of issues arising in complex networks with the design of sampled-data-based controllers and filters. Among its highlights, the text provides: · a unified framework for handling filtering and control problems in complex communication networks with limited bandwidth; · new concepts such as random sensor and signal saturations for more realistic modeling; and · demonstration of the use of techniques such...
Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon
2013-02-15
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Sindhikara, Daniel J; Kim, Seonah; Voter, Arthur F; Roitberg, Adrian E
2009-06-09
Molecular dynamics simulations starting from different initial conditions are commonly used to mimic the behavior of an experimental ensemble. We show in this article that when a Langevin thermostat is used to maintain constant temperature during such simulations, extreme care must be taken when choosing the random number seeds to prevent statistical correlation among the MD trajectories. While recent studies have shown that stochastically thermostatted trajectories evolving within a single potential basin with identical random number seeds tend to synchronize, we show that there is a synchronization effect even for complex, biologically relevant systems. We demonstrate this effect in simulations of alanine trimer and pentamer and in a simulation of a temperature-jump experiment for peptide folding of a 14-residue peptide. Even in replica-exchange simulations, in which the trajectories are at different temperatures, we find partial synchronization occurring when the same random number seed is employed. We explain this by extending the recent derivation of the synchronization effect for two trajectories in a harmonic well to the case in which the trajectories are at two different temperatures. Our results suggest several ways in which mishandling selection of a pseudorandom number generator initial seed can lead to corruption of simulation data. Simulators can fall into this trap in simple situations such as neglecting to specifically indicate different random seeds in either parallel or sequential restart simulations, utilizing a simulation package with a weak pseudorandom number generator, or using an advanced simulation algorithm that has not been programmed to distribute initial seeds.
Modelling the heat dynamics of a building using stochastic differential equations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Madsen, Henrik; Hansen, Lars Henrik
2000-01-01
estimation and model validation, while physical knowledge is used in forming the model structure. The suggested lumped parameter model is thus based on thermodynamics and formulated as a system of stochastic differential equations. Due to the continuous time formulation the parameters of the model...
Information Processing Capacity of Dynamical Systems
Dambre, Joni; Verstraeten, David; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Massar, Serge
2012-07-01
Many dynamical systems, both natural and artificial, are stimulated by time dependent external signals, somehow processing the information contained therein. We demonstrate how to quantify the different modes in which information can be processed by such systems and combine them to define the computational capacity of a dynamical system. This is bounded by the number of linearly independent state variables of the dynamical system, equaling it if the system obeys the fading memory condition. It can be interpreted as the total number of linearly independent functions of its stimuli the system can compute. Our theory combines concepts from machine learning (reservoir computing), system modeling, stochastic processes, and functional analysis. We illustrate our theory by numerical simulations for the logistic map, a recurrent neural network, and a two-dimensional reaction diffusion system, uncovering universal trade-offs between the non-linearity of the computation and the system's short-term memory.
Information Processing Capacity of Dynamical Systems
Dambre, Joni; Verstraeten, David; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Massar, Serge
2012-01-01
Many dynamical systems, both natural and artificial, are stimulated by time dependent external signals, somehow processing the information contained therein. We demonstrate how to quantify the different modes in which information can be processed by such systems and combine them to define the computational capacity of a dynamical system. This is bounded by the number of linearly independent state variables of the dynamical system, equaling it if the system obeys the fading memory condition. It can be interpreted as the total number of linearly independent functions of its stimuli the system can compute. Our theory combines concepts from machine learning (reservoir computing), system modeling, stochastic processes, and functional analysis. We illustrate our theory by numerical simulations for the logistic map, a recurrent neural network, and a two-dimensional reaction diffusion system, uncovering universal trade-offs between the non-linearity of the computation and the system's short-term memory. PMID:22816038
Stochastic dynamics approach to tunneling problems in quantum mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jona-Lasinio, G.; Martinelli, F.; Scoppola, E.
1981-01-01
The authors' main purpose is to give a general procedure to estimate the splittings of the ground state, due to tunneling, of finite one-dimensional quantum systems in the semiclassical limit h/2π→0. (Auth.)
A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
constraints of the water quality management problem; (ii) a water quality simulation model ... of acceptance and limited implementation of optimisation techniques. .... The response of river system to these sources of pollution can be integrated ...
Stochastic Control Synthesis of Systems with Structured Uncertainty
Padula, Sharon L. (Technical Monitor); Crespo, Luis G.
2003-01-01
This paper presents a study on the design of robust controllers by using random variables to model structured uncertainty for both SISO and MIMO feedback systems. Once the parameter uncertainty is prescribed with probability density functions, its effects are propagated through the analysis leading to stochastic metrics for the system's output. Control designs that aim for satisfactory performances while guaranteeing robust closed loop stability are attained by solving constrained non-linear optimization problems in the frequency domain. This approach permits not only to quantify the probability of having unstable and unfavorable responses for a particular control design but also to search for controls while favoring the values of the parameters with higher chance of occurrence. In this manner, robust optimality is achieved while the characteristic conservatism of conventional robust control methods is eliminated. Examples that admit closed form expressions for the probabilistic metrics of the output are used to elucidate the nature of the problem at hand and validate the proposed formulations.
On quantum chaos, stochastic webs and localization in a quantum mechanical kick system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Engel, U.M.
2007-01-01
In this study quantum chaos is discussed using the kicked harmonic oscillator as a model system. The kicked harmonic oscillator is characterized by an exceptional scenario of weak chaos: In the case of resonance between the frequency of the harmonic oscillator and the frequency of the periodic forcing, stochastic webs in phase space are generated by the classical dynamics. For the quantum dynamics of this system it is shown that the resulting Husimi distributions in quantum phase space exhibit the same web-like structures as the classical webs. The quantum dynamics is characterized by diffusive energy growth - just as the classical dynamics in the channels of the webs. In the case of nonresonance, the classically diffusive dynamics is found to be quantum mechanically suppressed. This bounded energy growth, which corresponds to localization in quantum phase space, is explained analytically by mapping the system onto the Anderson model. In this way, within the context of quantum chaos, the kicked harmonic oscillator is characterized by exhibiting its noteworthy geometrical and dynamical properties both classically and quantum mechanically, while at the same time there are also very distinct quantum deviations from classical properties, the most prominent example being quantum localization. (orig.)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Volkov, M V; Garanin, S G; Dolgopolov, Yu V; Kopalkin, A V; Kulikov, S M; Sinyavin, D N; Starikov, F A; Sukharev, S A; Tyutin, S V; Khokhlov, S V; Chaparin, D A [Russian Federal Nuclear Center ' All-Russian Research Institute of Experimental Physics' , Sarov, Nizhnii Novgorod region (Russian Federation)
2014-11-30
A seven-channel fibre laser system operated by the master oscillator – multichannel power amplifier scheme is the phase locked using a stochastic parallel gradient algorithm. The phase modulators on lithium niobate crystals are controlled by a multichannel electronic unit with the microcontroller processing signals in real time. The dynamic phase locking of the laser system with the bandwidth of 14 kHz is demonstrated, the time of phasing is 3 – 4 ms. (fibre and integrated-optical structures)
Crisan, Dan
2011-01-01
"Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa
Stochastic resonances in a distributed genetic broadcasting system: the NFκB/IκB paradigm.
Wang, Zhipeng; Potoyan, Davit A; Wolynes, Peter G
2018-01-01
Gene regulatory networks must relay information from extracellular signals to downstream genes in an efficient, timely and coherent manner. Many complex functional tasks such as the immune response require system-wide broadcasting of information not to one but to many genes carrying out distinct functions whose dynamical binding and unbinding characteristics are widely distributed. In such broadcasting networks, the intended target sites are also often dwarfed in number by the even more numerous non-functional binding sites. Taking the genetic regulatory network of NF κ B as an exemplary system we explore the impact of having numerous distributed sites on the stochastic dynamics of oscillatory broadcasting genetic networks pointing out how resonances in binding cycles control the network's specificity and performance. We also show that active kinetic regulation of binding and unbinding through molecular stripping of DNA bound transcription factors can lead to a higher coherence of gene-co-expression and synchronous clearance. © 2018 The Author(s).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferrari, Franco; Paturej, Jaroslaw
2009-01-01
The dynamics of a freely jointed chain in the continuous limit is described by a field theory which closely resembles the nonlinear sigma model. The generating functional Ψ[J] of this field theory contains nonholonomic constraints, which are imposed by inserting in the path integral expressing Ψ[J] a suitable product of delta functions. The same procedure is commonly applied in statistical mechanics in order to enforce topological conditions on a system of linked polymers. The disadvantage of this method is that the contact with the stochastic process governing the diffusion of the chain is apparently lost. The main goal of this work is to re-establish this contact. For this purpose, it is shown here that the generating functional Ψ[J] coincides with the generating functional of the correlation functions of the solutions of a constrained Langevin equation. In the discrete case, this Langevin equation describes as expected the Brownian motion of beads connected together by links of fixed length