Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

2014-12-01

Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

Improved Statistical Fault Detection Technique and Application to Biological Phenomena Modeled by S-Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Mansouri, Majdi; Nounou, Mohamed N; Nounou, Hazem N

2017-09-01

In our previous work, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of the linear multiscale principal component analysis (PCA)-based moving window (MW)-generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) technique over the classical PCA and multiscale principal component analysis (MSPCA)-based GLRT methods. The developed fault detection algorithm provided optimal properties by maximizing the detection probability for a particular false alarm rate (FAR) with different values of windows, and however, most real systems are nonlinear, which make the linear PCA method not able to tackle the issue of non-linearity to a great extent. Thus, in this paper, first, we apply a nonlinear PCA to obtain an accurate principal component of a set of data and handle a wide range of nonlinearities using the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) model. The KPCA is among the most popular nonlinear statistical methods. Second, we extend the MW-GLRT technique to one that utilizes exponential weights to residuals in the moving window (instead of equal weightage) as it might be able to further improve fault detection performance by reducing the FAR using exponentially weighed moving average (EWMA). The developed detection method, which is called EWMA-GLRT, provides improved properties, such as smaller missed detection and FARs and smaller average run length. The idea behind the developed EWMA-GLRT is to compute a new GLRT statistic that integrates current and previous data information in a decreasing exponential fashion giving more weight to the more recent data. This provides a more accurate estimation of the GLRT statistic and provides a stronger memory that will enable better decision making with respect to fault detection. Therefore, in this paper, a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT method is developed and utilized in practice to improve fault detection in biological phenomena modeled by S-systems and to enhance monitoring process mean. The idea behind a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT fault detection algorithm is to

Statistical modelling for social researchers principles and practice

CERN Document Server

Tarling, Roger

2008-01-01

This book explains the principles and theory of statistical modelling in an intelligible way for the non-mathematical social scientist looking to apply statistical modelling techniques in research. The book also serves as an introduction for those wishing to develop more detailed knowledge and skills in statistical modelling. Rather than present a limited number of statistical models in great depth, the aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the statistical models currently adopted in social research, in order that the researcher can make appropriate choices and select the most suitable model for the research question to be addressed. To facilitate application, the book also offers practical guidance and instruction in fitting models using SPSS and Stata, the most popular statistical computer software which is available to most social researchers. Instruction in using MLwiN is also given. Models covered in the book include; multiple regression, binary, multinomial and ordered logistic regression, log-l...

Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

2014-03-01

Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

CERN Document Server

Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

2013-01-01

Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

The application of statistical techniques to nuclear materials accountancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annibal, P.S.; Roberts, P.D.

1990-02-01

Over the past decade much theoretical research has been carried out on the development of statistical methods for nuclear materials accountancy. In practice plant operation may differ substantially from the idealized models often cited. This paper demonstrates the importance of taking account of plant operation in applying the statistical techniques, to improve the accuracy of the estimates and the knowledge of the errors. The benefits are quantified either by theoretical calculation or by simulation. Two different aspects are considered; firstly, the use of redundant measurements to reduce the error on the estimate of the mass of heavy metal in an accountancy tank is investigated. Secondly, a means of improving the knowledge of the 'Material Unaccounted For' (the difference between the inventory calculated from input/output data, and the measured inventory), using information about the plant measurement system, is developed and compared with existing general techniques. (author)

Statistical Model Checking for Biological Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

2014-01-01

Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a highly scalable simulation-based verification approach for testing and estimating the probability that a stochastic system satisfies a given linear temporal property. The technique has been applied to (discrete and continuous time) Markov chains, stochastic...

Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

2013-10-31

Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study

KAUST Repository

MacLean, Adam L.; Harrington, Heather A.; Stumpf, Michael P. H.; Byrne, Helen M.

2015-01-01

mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Milner, G. Martin; Miller, Patrice S.

1987-01-01

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Application of Multivariable Statistical Techniques in Plant-wide WWTP Control Strategies Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flores Alsina, Xavier; Comas, J.; Rodríguez-Roda, I.

2007-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to present the application of selected multivariable statistical techniques in plant-wide wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) control strategies analysis. In this study, cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) and discriminant...... analysis (DA) are applied to the evaluation matrix data set obtained by simulation of several control strategies applied to the plant-wide IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2). These techniques allow i) to determine natural groups or clusters of control strategies with a similar behaviour, ii......) to find and interpret hidden, complex and casual relation features in the data set and iii) to identify important discriminant variables within the groups found by the cluster analysis. This study illustrates the usefulness of multivariable statistical techniques for both analysis and interpretation...

Coronary artery plaques: Cardiac CT with model-based and adaptive-statistical iterative reconstruction technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheffel, Hans; Stolzmann, Paul; Schlett, Christopher L.; Engel, Leif-Christopher; Major, Gyöngi Petra; Károlyi, Mihály; Do, Synho; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Hoffmann, Udo

2012-01-01

Objectives: To compare image quality of coronary artery plaque visualization at CT angiography with images reconstructed with filtered back projection (FBP), adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR), and model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) techniques. Methods: The coronary arteries of three ex vivo human hearts were imaged by CT and reconstructed with FBP, ASIR and MBIR. Coronary cross-sectional images were co-registered between the different reconstruction techniques and assessed for qualitative and quantitative image quality parameters. Readers were blinded to the reconstruction algorithm. Results: A total of 375 triplets of coronary cross-sectional images were co-registered. Using MBIR, 26% of the images were rated as having excellent overall image quality, which was significantly better as compared to ASIR and FBP (4% and 13%, respectively, all p < 0.001). Qualitative assessment of image noise demonstrated a noise reduction by using ASIR as compared to FBP (p < 0.01) and further noise reduction by using MBIR (p < 0.001). The contrast-to-noise-ratio (CNR) using MBIR was better as compared to ASIR and FBP (44 ± 19, 29 ± 15, 26 ± 9, respectively; all p < 0.001). Conclusions: Using MBIR improved image quality, reduced image noise and increased CNR as compared to the other available reconstruction techniques. This may further improve the visualization of coronary artery plaque and allow radiation reduction.

Statistical optimisation techniques in fatigue signal editing problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nopiah, Z. M.; Osman, M. H.; Baharin, N.; Abdullah, S.

2015-01-01

Success in fatigue signal editing is determined by the level of length reduction without compromising statistical constraints. A great reduction rate can be achieved by removing small amplitude cycles from the recorded signal. The long recorded signal sometimes renders the cycle-to-cycle editing process daunting. This has encouraged researchers to focus on the segment-based approach. This paper discusses joint application of the Running Damage Extraction (RDE) technique and single constrained Genetic Algorithm (GA) in fatigue signal editing optimisation.. In the first section, the RDE technique is used to restructure and summarise the fatigue strain. This technique combines the overlapping window and fatigue strain-life models. It is designed to identify and isolate the fatigue events that exist in the variable amplitude strain data into different segments whereby the retention of statistical parameters and the vibration energy are considered. In the second section, the fatigue data editing problem is formulated as a constrained single optimisation problem that can be solved using GA method. The GA produces the shortest edited fatigue signal by selecting appropriate segments from a pool of labelling segments. Challenges arise due to constraints on the segment selection by deviation level over three signal properties, namely cumulative fatigue damage, root mean square and kurtosis values. Experimental results over several case studies show that the idea of solving fatigue signal editing within a framework of optimisation is effective and automatic, and that the GA is robust for constrained segment selection

Statistical optimisation techniques in fatigue signal editing problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nopiah, Z. M.; Osman, M. H. [Fundamental Engineering Studies Unit Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM (Malaysia); Baharin, N.; Abdullah, S. [Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM (Malaysia)

2015-02-03

Success in fatigue signal editing is determined by the level of length reduction without compromising statistical constraints. A great reduction rate can be achieved by removing small amplitude cycles from the recorded signal. The long recorded signal sometimes renders the cycle-to-cycle editing process daunting. This has encouraged researchers to focus on the segment-based approach. This paper discusses joint application of the Running Damage Extraction (RDE) technique and single constrained Genetic Algorithm (GA) in fatigue signal editing optimisation.. In the first section, the RDE technique is used to restructure and summarise the fatigue strain. This technique combines the overlapping window and fatigue strain-life models. It is designed to identify and isolate the fatigue events that exist in the variable amplitude strain data into different segments whereby the retention of statistical parameters and the vibration energy are considered. In the second section, the fatigue data editing problem is formulated as a constrained single optimisation problem that can be solved using GA method. The GA produces the shortest edited fatigue signal by selecting appropriate segments from a pool of labelling segments. Challenges arise due to constraints on the segment selection by deviation level over three signal properties, namely cumulative fatigue damage, root mean square and kurtosis values. Experimental results over several case studies show that the idea of solving fatigue signal editing within a framework of optimisation is effective and automatic, and that the GA is robust for constrained segment selection.

Statistical Theory of the Vector Random Decrement Technique

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, J. C.; Brincker, Rune; Ibrahim, S. R.

1999-01-01

decays. Due to the speed and/or accuracy of the Vector Random Decrement technique, it was introduced as an attractive alternative to the Random Decrement technique. In this paper, the theory of the Vector Random Decrement technique is extended by applying a statistical description of the stochastic...

On-the-fly confluence detection for statistical model checking (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmanns, Arnd; Timmer, Mark

Statistical model checking is an analysis method that circumvents the state space explosion problem in model-based verification by combining probabilistic simulation with statistical methods that provide clear error bounds. As a simulation-based technique, it can only provide sound results if the

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; R Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus . An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae habitat and population densities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khalifa M. Al-Kindi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus. An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.

TECHNIQUE OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT APPEAL OF THE REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

А. А. Vershinina

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The technique of the statistical analysis of investment appeal of the region is given in scientific article for direct foreign investments. Definition of a technique of the statistical analysis is given, analysis stages reveal, the mathematico-statistical tools are considered.

Quantitative Analysis of Probabilistic Models of Software Product Lines with Statistical Model Checking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

2015-01-01

We investigate the suitability of statistical model checking techniques for analysing quantitative properties of software product line models with probabilistic aspects. For this purpose, we enrich the feature-oriented language FLAN with action rates, which specify the likelihood of exhibiting pa...

Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

1995-01-01

This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for

Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study

KAUST Repository

MacLean, Adam L.

2015-12-16

The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to showcase current mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential. We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non-exhaustive) review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in systems medicine.

Sound statistical model checking for MDP using partial order and confluence reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmanns, Arnd; Timmer, Mark

Statistical model checking (SMC) is an analysis method that circumvents the state space explosion problem in model-based verification by combining probabilistic simulation with statistical methods that provide clear error bounds. As a simulation-based technique, it can in general only provide sound

The application of statistical and/or non-statistical sampling techniques by internal audit functions in the South African banking industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.P. van der Nest

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This article explores the use by internal audit functions of audit sampling techniques in order to test the effectiveness of controls in the banking sector. The article focuses specifically on the use of statistical and/or non-statistical sampling techniques by internal auditors. The focus of the research for this article was internal audit functions in the banking sector of South Africa. The results discussed in the article indicate that audit sampling is still used frequently as an audit evidence-gathering technique. Non-statistical sampling techniques are used more frequently than statistical sampling techniques for the evaluation of the sample. In addition, both techniques are regarded as important for the determination of the sample size and the selection of the sample items

Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing

CERN Document Server

Mazumdar, Ravi R

2013-01-01

This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan

Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

2015-03-15

Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate

A survey of statistical downscaling techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1997-12-31

The derivation of regional information from integrations of coarse-resolution General Circulation Models (GCM) is generally referred to as downscaling. The most relevant statistical downscaling techniques are described here and some particular examples are worked out in detail. They are classified into three main groups: linear methods, classification methods and deterministic non-linear methods. Their performance in a particular example, winter rainfall in the Iberian peninsula, is compared to a simple downscaling analog method. It is found that the analog method performs equally well than the more complicated methods. Downscaling analysis can be also used as a tool to validate regional performance of global climate models by analyzing the covariability of the simulated large-scale climate and the regional climates. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die Ableitung regionaler Information aus Integrationen grob aufgeloester Klimamodelle wird als `Regionalisierung` bezeichnet. Dieser Beitrag beschreibt die wichtigsten statistischen Regionalisierungsverfahren und gibt darueberhinaus einige detaillierte Beispiele. Regionalisierungsverfahren lassen sich in drei Hauptgruppen klassifizieren: lineare Verfahren, Klassifikationsverfahren und nicht-lineare deterministische Verfahren. Diese Methoden werden auf den Niederschlag auf der iberischen Halbinsel angewandt und mit den Ergebnissen eines einfachen Analog-Modells verglichen. Es wird festgestellt, dass die Ergebnisse der komplizierteren Verfahren im wesentlichen auch mit der Analog-Methode erzielt werden koennen. Eine weitere Anwendung der Regionalisierungsmethoden besteht in der Validierung globaler Klimamodelle, indem die simulierte und die beobachtete Kovariabilitaet zwischen dem grosskaligen und dem regionalen Klima miteinander verglichen wird. (orig.)

A survey of statistical downscaling techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E; Storch, H von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1998-12-31

The derivation of regional information from integrations of coarse-resolution General Circulation Models (GCM) is generally referred to as downscaling. The most relevant statistical downscaling techniques are described here and some particular examples are worked out in detail. They are classified into three main groups: linear methods, classification methods and deterministic non-linear methods. Their performance in a particular example, winter rainfall in the Iberian peninsula, is compared to a simple downscaling analog method. It is found that the analog method performs equally well than the more complicated methods. Downscaling analysis can be also used as a tool to validate regional performance of global climate models by analyzing the covariability of the simulated large-scale climate and the regional climates. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die Ableitung regionaler Information aus Integrationen grob aufgeloester Klimamodelle wird als `Regionalisierung` bezeichnet. Dieser Beitrag beschreibt die wichtigsten statistischen Regionalisierungsverfahren und gibt darueberhinaus einige detaillierte Beispiele. Regionalisierungsverfahren lassen sich in drei Hauptgruppen klassifizieren: lineare Verfahren, Klassifikationsverfahren und nicht-lineare deterministische Verfahren. Diese Methoden werden auf den Niederschlag auf der iberischen Halbinsel angewandt und mit den Ergebnissen eines einfachen Analog-Modells verglichen. Es wird festgestellt, dass die Ergebnisse der komplizierteren Verfahren im wesentlichen auch mit der Analog-Methode erzielt werden koennen. Eine weitere Anwendung der Regionalisierungsmethoden besteht in der Validierung globaler Klimamodelle, indem die simulierte und die beobachtete Kovariabilitaet zwischen dem grosskaligen und dem regionalen Klima miteinander verglichen wird. (orig.)

Preparing systems engineering and computing science students in disciplined methods, quantitative, and advanced statistical techniques to improve process performance

Science.gov (United States)

McCray, Wilmon Wil L., Jr.

The research was prompted by a need to conduct a study that assesses process improvement, quality management and analytical techniques taught to students in U.S. colleges and universities undergraduate and graduate systems engineering and the computing science discipline (e.g., software engineering, computer science, and information technology) degree programs during their academic training that can be applied to quantitatively manage processes for performance. Everyone involved in executing repeatable processes in the software and systems development lifecycle processes needs to become familiar with the concepts of quantitative management, statistical thinking, process improvement methods and how they relate to process-performance. Organizations are starting to embrace the de facto Software Engineering Institute (SEI) Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI RTM) Models as process improvement frameworks to improve business processes performance. High maturity process areas in the CMMI model imply the use of analytical, statistical, quantitative management techniques, and process performance modeling to identify and eliminate sources of variation, continually improve process-performance; reduce cost and predict future outcomes. The research study identifies and provides a detail discussion of the gap analysis findings of process improvement and quantitative analysis techniques taught in U.S. universities systems engineering and computing science degree programs, gaps that exist in the literature, and a comparison analysis which identifies the gaps that exist between the SEI's "healthy ingredients " of a process performance model and courses taught in U.S. universities degree program. The research also heightens awareness that academicians have conducted little research on applicable statistics and quantitative techniques that can be used to demonstrate high maturity as implied in the CMMI models. The research also includes a Monte Carlo simulation optimization

Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

Statistical shape and appearance models of bones.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkalkan, Nazli; Weinans, Harrie; Zadpoor, Amir A

2014-03-01

When applied to bones, statistical shape models (SSM) and statistical appearance models (SAM) respectively describe the mean shape and mean density distribution of bones within a certain population as well as the main modes of variations of shape and density distribution from their mean values. The availability of this quantitative information regarding the detailed anatomy of bones provides new opportunities for diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of skeletal diseases. The potential of SSM and SAM has been recently recognized within the bone research community. For example, these models have been applied for studying the effects of bone shape on the etiology of osteoarthritis, improving the accuracy of clinical osteoporotic fracture prediction techniques, design of orthopedic implants, and surgery planning. This paper reviews the main concepts, methods, and applications of SSM and SAM as applied to bone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

Advanced structural equation modeling issues and techniques

CERN Document Server

Marcoulides, George A

2013-01-01

By focusing primarily on the application of structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques in example cases and situations, this book provides an understanding and working knowledge of advanced SEM techniques with a minimum of mathematical derivations. The book was written for a broad audience crossing many disciplines, assumes an understanding of graduate level multivariate statistics, including an introduction to SEM.

The statistical chopper in the time-of-flight technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albuquerque Vieira, J. de.

1975-12-01

A detailed study of the 'statistical' chopper and of the method of analysis of the data obtained by this technique is made. The study includes the basic ideas behind correlation methods applied in time-of-flight techniques; comparisons with the conventional chopper made by an analysis of statistical errors; the development of a FORTRAN computer programme to analyse experimental results; the presentation of the related fields of work to demonstrate the potential of this method and suggestions for future study together with the criteria for a time-of-flight experiment using the method being studied [pt

The Statistical Analysis Techniques to Support the NGNP Fuel Performance Experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, Bihn T.; Einerson, Jeffrey J.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the development and application of statistical analysis techniques to support the AGR experimental program on NGNP fuel performance. The experiments conducted in the Idaho National Laboratory's Advanced Test Reactor employ fuel compacts placed in a graphite cylinder shrouded by a steel capsule. The tests are instrumented with thermocouples embedded in graphite blocks and the target quantity (fuel/graphite temperature) is regulated by the He-Ne gas mixture that fills the gap volume. Three techniques for statistical analysis, namely control charting, correlation analysis, and regression analysis, are implemented in the SAS-based NGNP Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) for automated processing and qualification of the AGR measured data. The NDMAS also stores daily neutronic (power) and thermal (heat transfer) code simulation results along with the measurement data, allowing for their combined use and comparative scrutiny. The ultimate objective of this work includes (a) a multi-faceted system for data monitoring and data accuracy testing, (b) identification of possible modes of diagnostics deterioration and changes in experimental conditions, (c) qualification of data for use in code validation, and (d) identification and use of data trends to support effective control of test conditions with respect to the test target. Analysis results and examples given in the paper show the three statistical analysis techniques providing a complementary capability to warn of thermocouple failures. It also suggests that the regression analysis models relating calculated fuel temperatures and thermocouple readings can enable online regulation of experimental parameters (i.e. gas mixture content), to effectively maintain the target quantity (fuel temperature) within a given range.

The statistical analysis techniques to support the NGNP fuel performance experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pham, Binh T., E-mail: Binh.Pham@inl.gov; Einerson, Jeffrey J.

2013-10-15

This paper describes the development and application of statistical analysis techniques to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) experimental program on Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) fuel performance. The experiments conducted in the Idaho National Laboratory’s Advanced Test Reactor employ fuel compacts placed in a graphite cylinder shrouded by a steel capsule. The tests are instrumented with thermocouples embedded in graphite blocks and the target quantity (fuel temperature) is regulated by the He–Ne gas mixture that fills the gap volume. Three techniques for statistical analysis, namely control charting, correlation analysis, and regression analysis, are implemented in the NGNP Data Management and Analysis System for automated processing and qualification of the AGR measured data. The neutronic and thermal code simulation results are used for comparative scrutiny. The ultimate objective of this work includes (a) a multi-faceted system for data monitoring and data accuracy testing, (b) identification of possible modes of diagnostics deterioration and changes in experimental conditions, (c) qualification of data for use in code validation, and (d) identification and use of data trends to support effective control of test conditions with respect to the test target. Analysis results and examples given in the paper show the three statistical analysis techniques providing a complementary capability to warn of thermocouple failures. It also suggests that the regression analysis models relating calculated fuel temperatures and thermocouple readings can enable online regulation of experimental parameters (i.e. gas mixture content), to effectively maintain the fuel temperature within a given range.

Statistic techniques of process control for MTR type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, F.S.; Ferrufino, F.B.J.; Santos, G.R.T.; Lima, R.M.

2002-01-01

This work aims at introducing some improvements on the fabrication of MTR type fuel plates, applying statistic techniques of process control. The work was divided into four single steps and their data were analyzed for: fabrication of U 3 O 8 fuel plates; fabrication of U 3 Si 2 fuel plates; rolling of small lots of fuel plates; applying statistic tools and standard specifications to perform a comparative study of these processes. (author)

The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela OPAIT

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

Application of multivariate statistical techniques in microbial ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Paliy, O; Shankar, V

2016-03-01

Recent advances in high-throughput methods of molecular analyses have led to an explosion of studies generating large-scale ecological data sets. In particular, noticeable effect has been attained in the field of microbial ecology, where new experimental approaches provided in-depth assessments of the composition, functions and dynamic changes of complex microbial communities. Because even a single high-throughput experiment produces large amount of data, powerful statistical techniques of multivariate analysis are well suited to analyse and interpret these data sets. Many different multivariate techniques are available, and often it is not clear which method should be applied to a particular data set. In this review, we describe and compare the most widely used multivariate statistical techniques including exploratory, interpretive and discriminatory procedures. We consider several important limitations and assumptions of these methods, and we present examples of how these approaches have been utilized in recent studies to provide insight into the ecology of the microbial world. Finally, we offer suggestions for the selection of appropriate methods based on the research question and data set structure. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

Schedulability of Herschel revisited using statistical model checking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

2015-01-01

-approximation technique. We can safely conclude that the system is schedulable for varying values of BCET. For the cases where deadlines are violated, we use polyhedra to try to confirm the witnesses. Our alternative method to confirm non-schedulability uses statistical model-checking (SMC) to generate counter...... and blocking times of tasks. Consequently, the method may falsely declare deadline violations that will never occur during execution. This paper is a continuation of previous work of the authors in applying extended timed automata model checking (using the tool UPPAAL) to obtain more exact schedulability...... analysis, here in the presence of non-deterministic computation times of tasks given by intervals [BCET,WCET]. Computation intervals with preemptive schedulers make the schedulability analysis of the resulting task model undecidable. Our contribution is to propose a combination of model checking techniques...

Modeling with data tools and techniques for scientific computing

CERN Document Server

Klemens, Ben

2009-01-01

Modeling with Data fully explains how to execute computationally intensive analyses on very large data sets, showing readers how to determine the best methods for solving a variety of different problems, how to create and debug statistical models, and how to run an analysis and evaluate the results. Ben Klemens introduces a set of open and unlimited tools, and uses them to demonstrate data management, analysis, and simulation techniques essential for dealing with large data sets and computationally intensive procedures. He then demonstrates how to easily apply these tools to the many threads of statistical technique, including classical, Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and Monte Carlo methods

Statistical Language Models and Information Retrieval: Natural Language Processing Really Meets Retrieval

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hiemstra, Djoerd; de Jong, Franciska M.G.

2001-01-01

Traditionally, natural language processing techniques for information retrieval have always been studied outside the framework of formal models of information retrieval. In this article, we introduce a new formal model of information retrieval based on the application of statistical language models.

Statistical atmospheric inversion of local gas emissions by coupling the tracer release technique and local-scale transport modelling: a test case with controlled methane emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Ars

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study presents a new concept for estimating the pollutant emission rates of a site and its main facilities using a series of atmospheric measurements across the pollutant plumes. This concept combines the tracer release method, local-scale atmospheric transport modelling and a statistical atmospheric inversion approach. The conversion between the controlled emission and the measured atmospheric concentrations of the released tracer across the plume places valuable constraints on the atmospheric transport. This is used to optimise the configuration of the transport model parameters and the model uncertainty statistics in the inversion system. The emission rates of all sources are then inverted to optimise the match between the concentrations simulated with the transport model and the pollutants' measured atmospheric concentrations, accounting for the transport model uncertainty. In principle, by using atmospheric transport modelling, this concept does not strongly rely on the good colocation between the tracer and pollutant sources and can be used to monitor multiple sources within a single site, unlike the classical tracer release technique. The statistical inversion framework and the use of the tracer data for the configuration of the transport and inversion modelling systems should ensure that the transport modelling errors are correctly handled in the source estimation. The potential of this new concept is evaluated with a relatively simple practical implementation based on a Gaussian plume model and a series of inversions of controlled methane point sources using acetylene as a tracer gas. The experimental conditions are chosen so that they are suitable for the use of a Gaussian plume model to simulate the atmospheric transport. In these experiments, different configurations of methane and acetylene point source locations are tested to assess the efficiency of the method in comparison to the classic tracer release technique in coping

Statistical atmospheric inversion of local gas emissions by coupling the tracer release technique and local-scale transport modelling: a test case with controlled methane emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Ars, Sébastien; Broquet, Grégoire; Yver Kwok, Camille; Roustan, Yelva; Wu, Lin; Arzoumanian, Emmanuel; Bousquet, Philippe

2017-12-01

This study presents a new concept for estimating the pollutant emission rates of a site and its main facilities using a series of atmospheric measurements across the pollutant plumes. This concept combines the tracer release method, local-scale atmospheric transport modelling and a statistical atmospheric inversion approach. The conversion between the controlled emission and the measured atmospheric concentrations of the released tracer across the plume places valuable constraints on the atmospheric transport. This is used to optimise the configuration of the transport model parameters and the model uncertainty statistics in the inversion system. The emission rates of all sources are then inverted to optimise the match between the concentrations simulated with the transport model and the pollutants' measured atmospheric concentrations, accounting for the transport model uncertainty. In principle, by using atmospheric transport modelling, this concept does not strongly rely on the good colocation between the tracer and pollutant sources and can be used to monitor multiple sources within a single site, unlike the classical tracer release technique. The statistical inversion framework and the use of the tracer data for the configuration of the transport and inversion modelling systems should ensure that the transport modelling errors are correctly handled in the source estimation. The potential of this new concept is evaluated with a relatively simple practical implementation based on a Gaussian plume model and a series of inversions of controlled methane point sources using acetylene as a tracer gas. The experimental conditions are chosen so that they are suitable for the use of a Gaussian plume model to simulate the atmospheric transport. In these experiments, different configurations of methane and acetylene point source locations are tested to assess the efficiency of the method in comparison to the classic tracer release technique in coping with the distances

Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

Statistical Techniques For Real-time Anomaly Detection Using Spark Over Multi-source VMware Performance Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solaimani, Mohiuddin [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Iftekhar, Mohammed [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Khan, Latifur [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Thuraisingham, Bhavani [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Ingram, Joey Burton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-09-01

Anomaly detection refers to the identi cation of an irregular or unusual pat- tern which deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. Such deviated patterns typically correspond to samples of interest and are assigned different labels in different domains, such as outliers, anomalies, exceptions, or malware. Detecting anomalies in fast, voluminous streams of data is a formidable chal- lenge. This paper presents a novel, generic, real-time distributed anomaly detection framework for heterogeneous streaming data where anomalies appear as a group. We have developed a distributed statistical approach to build a model and later use it to detect anomaly. As a case study, we investigate group anomaly de- tection for a VMware-based cloud data center, which maintains a large number of virtual machines (VMs). We have built our framework using Apache Spark to get higher throughput and lower data processing time on streaming data. We have developed a window-based statistical anomaly detection technique to detect anomalies that appear sporadically. We then relaxed this constraint with higher accuracy by implementing a cluster-based technique to detect sporadic and continuous anomalies. We conclude that our cluster-based technique out- performs other statistical techniques with higher accuracy and lower processing time.

What type of statistical model to choose for the analysis of radioimmunoassays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huet, S.

1984-01-01

The current techniques used for statistical analysis of radioimmunoassays are not very satisfactory for either the statistician or the biologist. They are based on an attempt to make the response curve linear to avoid complicated computations. The present article shows that this practice has considerable effects (often neglected) on the statistical assumptions which must be formulated. A more strict analysis is proposed by applying the four-parameter logistic model. The advantages of this method are: the statistical assumptions formulated are based on observed data, and the model can be applied to almost all radioimmunoassays [fr

Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

Science.gov (United States)

San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

2016-04-01

In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

Lightweight and Statistical Techniques for Petascale PetaScale Debugging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miller, Barton

2014-06-30

This project investigated novel techniques for debugging scientific applications on petascale architectures. In particular, we developed lightweight tools that narrow the problem space when bugs are encountered. We also developed techniques that either limit the number of tasks and the code regions to which a developer must apply a traditional debugger or that apply statistical techniques to provide direct suggestions of the location and type of error. We extend previous work on the Stack Trace Analysis Tool (STAT), that has already demonstrated scalability to over one hundred thousand MPI tasks. We also extended statistical techniques developed to isolate programming errors in widely used sequential or threaded applications in the Cooperative Bug Isolation (CBI) project to large scale parallel applications. Overall, our research substantially improved productivity on petascale platforms through a tool set for debugging that complements existing commercial tools. Previously, Office Of Science application developers relied either on primitive manual debugging techniques based on printf or they use tools, such as TotalView, that do not scale beyond a few thousand processors. However, bugs often arise at scale and substantial effort and computation cycles are wasted in either reproducing the problem in a smaller run that can be analyzed with the traditional tools or in repeated runs at scale that use the primitive techniques. New techniques that work at scale and automate the process of identifying the root cause of errors were needed. These techniques significantly reduced the time spent debugging petascale applications, thus leading to a greater overall amount of time for application scientists to pursue the scientific objectives for which the systems are purchased. We developed a new paradigm for debugging at scale: techniques that reduced the debugging scenario to a scale suitable for traditional debuggers, e.g., by narrowing the search for the root-cause analysis

EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezsi Eva

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.

An Automated Energy Detection Algorithm Based on Morphological and Statistical Processing Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-09

100 kHz, 1 MHz 100 MHz–1 GHz 1 100 kHz 3. Statistical Processing 3.1 Statistical Analysis Statistical analysis is the mathematical science...quantitative terms. In commercial prognostics and diagnostic vibrational monitoring applications , statistical techniques that are mainly used for alarm...Balakrishnan N, editors. Handbook of statistics . Amsterdam (Netherlands): Elsevier Science; 1998. p 555–602; (Order statistics and their applications

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2004-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

A Statistical Model for Synthesis of Detailed Facial Geometry

OpenAIRE

Golovinskiy, Aleksey; Matusik, Wojciech; Pfister, Hanspeter; Rusinkiewicz, Szymon; Funkhouser, Thomas

2006-01-01

Detailed surface geometry contributes greatly to the visual realism of 3D face models. However, acquiring high-resolution face geometry is often tedious and expensive. Consequently, most face models used in games, virtual reality, or computer vision look unrealistically smooth. In this paper, we introduce a new statistical technique for the analysis and synthesis of small three-dimensional facial features, such as wrinkles and pores. We acquire high-resolution face geometry for people across ...

Security of statistical data bases: invasion of privacy through attribute correlational modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palley, M.A.

1985-01-01

This study develops, defines, and applies a statistical technique for the compromise of confidential information in a statistical data base. Attribute Correlational Modeling (ACM) recognizes that the information contained in a statistical data base represents real world statistical phenomena. As such, ACM assumes correlational behavior among the database attributes. ACM proceeds to compromise confidential information through creation of a regression model, where the confidential attribute is treated as the dependent variable. The typical statistical data base may preclude the direct application of regression. In this scenario, the research introduces the notion of a synthetic data base, created through legitimate queries of the actual data base, and through proportional random variation of responses to these queries. The synthetic data base is constructed to resemble the actual data base as closely as possible in a statistical sense. ACM then applies regression analysis to the synthetic data base, and utilizes the derived model to estimate confidential information in the actual database.

SoS contract verification using statistical model checking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Mignogna

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Exhaustive formal verification for systems of systems (SoS is impractical and cannot be applied on a large scale. In this paper we propose to use statistical model checking for efficient verification of SoS. We address three relevant aspects for systems of systems: 1 the model of the SoS, which includes stochastic aspects; 2 the formalization of the SoS requirements in the form of contracts; 3 the tool-chain to support statistical model checking for SoS. We adapt the SMC technique for application to heterogeneous SoS. We extend the UPDM/SysML specification language to express the SoS requirements that the implemented strategies over the SoS must satisfy. The requirements are specified with a new contract language specifically designed for SoS, targeting a high-level English- pattern language, but relying on an accurate semantics given by the standard temporal logics. The contracts are verified against the UPDM/SysML specification using the Statistical Model Checker (SMC PLASMA combined with the simulation engine DESYRE, which integrates heterogeneous behavioral models through the functional mock-up interface (FMI standard. The tool-chain allows computing an estimation of the satisfiability of the contracts by the SoS. The results help the system architect to trade-off different solutions to guide the evolution of the SoS.

Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lenzi, Amanda

. This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...

ISOLATED SPEECH RECOGNITION SYSTEM FOR TAMIL LANGUAGE USING STATISTICAL PATTERN MATCHING AND MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

VIMALA C.

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In recent years, speech technology has become a vital part of our daily lives. Various techniques have been proposed for developing Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR system and have achieved great success in many applications. Among them, Template Matching techniques like Dynamic Time Warping (DTW, Statistical Pattern Matching techniques such as Hidden Markov Model (HMM and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM, Machine Learning techniques such as Neural Networks (NN, Support Vector Machine (SVM, and Decision Trees (DT are most popular. The main objective of this paper is to design and develop a speaker-independent isolated speech recognition system for Tamil language using the above speech recognition techniques. The background of ASR system, the steps involved in ASR, merits and demerits of the conventional and machine learning algorithms and the observations made based on the experiments are presented in this paper. For the above developed system, highest word recognition accuracy is achieved with HMM technique. It offered 100% accuracy during training process and 97.92% for testing process.

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yuning; Davies, Misty Dawn

2013-01-01

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical learning techniques applied to epidemiology: a simulated case-control comparison study with logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Land Walker H

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background When investigating covariate interactions and group associations with standard regression analyses, the relationship between the response variable and exposure may be difficult to characterize. When the relationship is nonlinear, linear modeling techniques do not capture the nonlinear information content. Statistical learning (SL techniques with kernels are capable of addressing nonlinear problems without making parametric assumptions. However, these techniques do not produce findings relevant for epidemiologic interpretations. A simulated case-control study was used to contrast the information embedding characteristics and separation boundaries produced by a specific SL technique with logistic regression (LR modeling representing a parametric approach. The SL technique was comprised of a kernel mapping in combination with a perceptron neural network. Because the LR model has an important epidemiologic interpretation, the SL method was modified to produce the analogous interpretation and generate odds ratios for comparison. Results The SL approach is capable of generating odds ratios for main effects and risk factor interactions that better capture nonlinear relationships between exposure variables and outcome in comparison with LR. Conclusions The integration of SL methods in epidemiology may improve both the understanding and interpretation of complex exposure/disease relationships.

Application of statistical downscaling technique for the production of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Gaitán Fernández, E.; García Moreno, R.; Pino Otín, M. R.; Ribalaygua Batalla, J.

2012-04-01

Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation Models (GCM) has become important tools to simulate the more relevant aspects of the climate expected for the XXI century in the frame of climatic change. These models are able to reproduce the general features of the atmospheric dynamic but their low resolution (about 200 Km) avoids a proper simulation of lower scale meteorological effects. Downscaling techniques allow overcoming this problem by adapting the model outcomes to local scale. In this context, FIC (Fundación para la Investigación del Clima) has developed a statistical downscaling technique based on a two step analogue methods. This methodology has been broadly tested on national and international environments leading to excellent results on future climate models. In a collaboration project, this statistical downscaling technique was applied to predict future scenarios for the grape growing systems in Spain. The application of such model is very important to predict expected climate for the different growing crops, mainly for grape, where the success of different varieties are highly related to climate and soil. The model allowed the implementation of agricultural conservation practices in the crop production, detecting highly sensible areas to negative impacts produced by any modification of climate in the different regions, mainly those protected with protected designation of origin, and the definition of new production areas with optimal edaphoclimatic conditions for the different varieties.

Probability, statistics, and associated computing techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, F.

1983-01-01

This chapter attempts to explore the extent to which it is possible for the experimental physicist to find optimal statistical techniques to provide a unique and unambiguous quantitative measure of the significance of raw data. Discusses statistics as the inverse of probability; normal theory of parameter estimation; normal theory (Gaussian measurements); the universality of the Gaussian distribution; real-life resolution functions; combination and propagation of uncertainties; the sum or difference of 2 variables; local theory, or the propagation of small errors; error on the ratio of 2 discrete variables; the propagation of large errors; confidence intervals; classical theory; Bayesian theory; use of the likelihood function; the second derivative of the log-likelihood function; multiparameter confidence intervals; the method of MINOS; least squares; the Gauss-Markov theorem; maximum likelihood for uniform error distribution; the Chebyshev fit; the parameter uncertainties; the efficiency of the Chebyshev estimator; error symmetrization; robustness vs. efficiency; testing of hypotheses (e.g., the Neyman-Pearson test); goodness-of-fit; distribution-free tests; comparing two one-dimensional distributions; comparing multidimensional distributions; and permutation tests for comparing two point sets

Exclusion statistics and integrable models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mashkevich, S.

1998-01-01

The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

Combining heuristic and statistical techniques in landslide hazard assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Cepeda, Jose; Schwendtner, Barbara; Quan, Byron; Nadim, Farrokh; Diaz, Manuel; Molina, Giovanni

2014-05-01

As a contribution to the Global Assessment Report 2013 - GAR2013, coordinated by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction - UNISDR, a drill-down exercise for landslide hazard assessment was carried out by entering the results of both heuristic and statistical techniques into a new but simple combination rule. The data available for this evaluation included landslide inventories, both historical and event-based. In addition to the application of a heuristic method used in the previous editions of GAR, the availability of inventories motivated the use of statistical methods. The heuristic technique is largely based on the Mora & Vahrson method, which estimates hazard as the product of susceptibility and triggering factors, where classes are weighted based on expert judgment and experience. Two statistical methods were also applied: the landslide index method, which estimates weights of the classes for the susceptibility and triggering factors based on the evidence provided by the density of landslides in each class of the factors; and the weights of evidence method, which extends the previous technique to include both positive and negative evidence of landslide occurrence in the estimation of weights for the classes. One key aspect during the hazard evaluation was the decision on the methodology to be chosen for the final assessment. Instead of opting for a single methodology, it was decided to combine the results of the three implemented techniques using a combination rule based on a normalization of the results of each method. The hazard evaluation was performed for both earthquake- and rainfall-induced landslides. The country chosen for the drill-down exercise was El Salvador. The results indicate that highest hazard levels are concentrated along the central volcanic chain and at the centre of the northern mountains.

Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio Iannazzo

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1994-01-01

This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2016-04-01

South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological

Statistical modelling with quantile functions

CERN Document Server

Gilchrist, Warren

2000-01-01

Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...

A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosholm, Michael; Staghøj, Jonas; Svarer, Michael

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way  across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly  important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...... duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the  plementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and  case workers....

MODEL APPLICATION MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES PCA AND HCA ASSESSMENT QUESTIONNAIRE ON CUSTOMER SATISFACTION: CASE STUDY IN A METALLURGICAL COMPANY OF METAL CONTAINERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cláudio Roberto Rosário

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to improve the practice on customer satisfaction analysis The article presents an analysis model to analyze the answers of a customer satisfaction evaluation in a systematic way with the aid of multivariate statistical techniques, specifically, exploratory analysis with PCA – Partial Components Analysis with HCA - Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. It was tried to evaluate the applicability of the model to be used by the issue company as a tool to assist itself on identifying the value chain perceived by the customer when applied the questionnaire of customer satisfaction. It was found with the assistance of multivariate statistical analysis that it was observed similar behavior among customers. It also allowed the company to conduct reviews on questions of the questionnaires, using analysis of the degree of correlation between the questions that was not a company’s practice before this research.

Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

2014-01-01

Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

Line identification studies using traditional techniques and wavelength coincidence statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowley, C.R.; Adelman, S.J.

1990-01-01

Traditional line identification techniques result in the assignment of individual lines to an atomic or ionic species. These methods may be supplemented by wavelength coincidence statistics (WCS). The strength and weakness of these methods are discussed using spectra of a number of normal and peculiar B and A stars that have been studied independently by both methods. The present results support the overall findings of some earlier studies. WCS would be most useful in a first survey, before traditional methods have been applied. WCS can quickly make a global search for all species and in this way may enable identifications of an unexpected spectrum that could easily be omitted entirely from a traditional study. This is illustrated by O I. WCS is a subject to well known weakness of any statistical technique, for example, a predictable number of spurious results are to be expected. The danger of small number statistics are illustrated. WCS is at its best relative to traditional methods in finding a line-rich atomic species that is only weakly present in a complicated stellar spectrum

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for Sengan region in Japan using multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jinyong; Balasingham, P.; McKenna, Sean Andrew; Kulatilake, Pinnaduwa H. S. W.

2004-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories, under contract to Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO), is performing research on regional classification of given sites in Japan with respect to potential volcanic disruption using multivariate statistics and geo-statistical interpolation techniques. This report provides results obtained for hierarchical probabilistic regionalization of volcanism for the Sengan region in Japan by applying multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical interpolation techniques on the geologic data provided by NUMO. A workshop report produced in September 2003 by Sandia National Laboratories (Arnold et al., 2003) on volcanism lists a set of most important geologic variables as well as some secondary information related to volcanism. Geologic data extracted for the Sengan region in Japan from the data provided by NUMO revealed that data are not available at the same locations for all the important geologic variables. In other words, the geologic variable vectors were found to be incomplete spatially. However, it is necessary to have complete geologic variable vectors to perform multivariate statistical analyses. As a first step towards constructing complete geologic variable vectors, the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 54 projected coordinate system and a 1 km square regular grid system were selected. The data available for each geologic variable on a geographic coordinate system were transferred to the aforementioned grid system. Also the recorded data on volcanic activity for Sengan region were produced on the same grid system. Each geologic variable map was compared with the recorded volcanic activity map to determine the geologic variables that are most important for volcanism. In the regionalized classification procedure, this step is known as the variable selection step. The following variables were determined as most important for volcanism: geothermal gradient, groundwater temperature, heat discharge, groundwater

Statistical Modelling of Synaptic Vesicles Distribution and Analysing their Physical Characteristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khanmohammadi, Mahdieh

transmission electron microscopy is used to acquire images from two experimental groups of rats: 1) rats subjected to a behavioral model of stress and 2) rats subjected to sham stress as the control group. The synaptic vesicle distribution and interactions are modeled by employing a point process approach......This Ph.D. thesis deals with mathematical and statistical modeling of synaptic vesicle distribution, shape, orientation and interactions. The first major part of this thesis treats the problem of determining the effect of stress on synaptic vesicle distribution and interactions. Serial section...... on differences of statistical measures in section and the same measures in between sections. Three-dimensional (3D) datasets are reconstructed by using image registration techniques and estimated thicknesses. We distinguish the effect of stress by estimating the synaptic vesicle densities and modeling...

Statistical methods of evaluating and comparing imaging techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freedman, L.S.

1987-01-01

Over the past 20 years several new methods of generating images of internal organs and the anatomy of the body have been developed and used to enhance the accuracy of diagnosis and treatment. These include ultrasonic scanning, radioisotope scanning, computerised X-ray tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The new techniques have made a considerable impact on radiological practice in hospital departments, not least on the investigational process for patients suspected or known to have malignant disease. As a consequence of the increased range of imaging techniques now available, there has developed a need to evaluate and compare their usefulness. Over the past 10 years formal studies of the application of imaging technology have been conducted and many reports have appeared in the literature. These studies cover a range of clinical situations. Likewise, the methodologies employed for evaluating and comparing the techniques in question have differed widely. While not attempting an exhaustive review of the clinical studies which have been reported, this paper aims to examine the statistical designs and analyses which have been used. First a brief review of the different types of study is given. Examples of each type are then chosen to illustrate statistical issues related to their design and analysis. In the final sections it is argued that a form of classification for these different types of study might be helpful in clarifying relationships between them and bringing a perspective to the field. A classification based upon a limited analogy with clinical trials is suggested

Quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation in the canonical ensemble method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toneev, V.D.; Ploszajczak, M.; Parvant, A.S.; Toneev, V.D.; Parvant, A.S.

1999-01-01

A quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation is proposed. The recurrence equation method used the canonical ensemble makes the model solvable and transparent to physical assumptions and allows to get results without involving the Monte Carlo technique. The model exhibits the first order phase transition. Quantum statistics effects are clearly seen on the microscopic level of occupation numbers but are almost washed out for global thermodynamic variables and the averaged observables studied. In the latter case, the recurrence relations for multiplicity distributions of both intermediate-mass and all fragments are derived and the specific changes in the shape of multiplicity distributions in the narrow region of the transition temperature is stressed. The temperature domain favorable to search for the HBT effect is noted. (authors)

Quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation in the canonical ensemble method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Toneev, V.D.; Ploszajczak, M. [Grand Accelerateur National d' Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); Parvant, A.S. [Institute of Applied Physics, Moldova Academy of Sciences, MD Moldova (Ukraine); Parvant, A.S. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Bogoliubov Lab. of Theoretical Physics, Dubna (Russian Federation)

1999-07-01

A quantum statistical model of nuclear multifragmentation is proposed. The recurrence equation method used the canonical ensemble makes the model solvable and transparent to physical assumptions and allows to get results without involving the Monte Carlo technique. The model exhibits the first order phase transition. Quantum statistics effects are clearly seen on the microscopic level of occupation numbers but are almost washed out for global thermodynamic variables and the averaged observables studied. In the latter case, the recurrence relations for multiplicity distributions of both intermediate-mass and all fragments are derived and the specific changes in the shape of multiplicity distributions in the narrow region of the transition temperature is stressed. The temperature domain favorable to search for the HBT effect is noted. (authors)

Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Ballarini

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC architecture.

Diffeomorphic Statistical Deformation Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Michael Sass; Hansen, Mads/Fogtman; Larsen, Rasmus

2007-01-01

In this paper we present a new method for constructing diffeomorphic statistical deformation models in arbitrary dimensional images with a nonlinear generative model and a linear parameter space. Our deformation model is a modified version of the diffeomorphic model introduced by Cootes et al....... The modifications ensure that no boundary restriction has to be enforced on the parameter space to prevent folds or tears in the deformation field. For straightforward statistical analysis, principal component analysis and sparse methods, we assume that the parameters for a class of deformations lie on a linear...... with ground truth in form of manual expert annotations, and compared to Cootes's model. We anticipate applications in unconstrained diffeomorphic synthesis of images, e.g. for tracking, segmentation, registration or classification purposes....

Exclusion statistics and integrable models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mashkevich, S.

1998-01-01

The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

OpenAIRE

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

2004-01-01

The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

A Comparison of Selected Statistical Techniques to Model Soil Cation Exchange Capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Khaledian, Yones; Brevik, Eric C.; Pereira, Paulo; Cerdà, Artemi; Fattah, Mohammed A.; Tazikeh, Hossein

2017-04-01

Cation exchange capacity (CEC) measures the soil's ability to hold positively charged ions and is an important indicator of soil quality (Khaledian et al., 2016). However, other soil properties are more commonly determined and reported, such as texture, pH, organic matter and biology. We attempted to predict CEC using different advanced statistical methods including monotone analysis of variance (MONANOVA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), principal components regressions (PCR), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in order to compare the utility of these approaches and identify the best predictor. We analyzed 170 soil samples from four different nations (USA, Spain, Iran and Iraq) under three land uses (agriculture, pasture, and forest). Seventy percent of the samples (120 samples) were selected as the calibration set and the remaining 50 samples (30%) were used as the prediction set. The results indicated that the MONANOVA (R2= 0.82 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) =6.32) and ANNs (R2= 0.82 and RMSE=5.53) were the best models to estimate CEC, PSO (R2= 0.80 and RMSE=5.54) and PCR (R2= 0.70 and RMSE=6.48) also worked well and the overall results were very similar to each other. Clay (positively correlated) and sand (negatively correlated) were the most influential variables for predicting CEC for the entire data set, while the most influential variables for the various countries and land uses were different and CEC was affected by different variables in different situations. Although the MANOVA and ANNs provided good predictions of the entire dataset, PSO gives a formula to estimate soil CEC using commonly tested soil properties. Therefore, PSO shows promise as a technique to estimate soil CEC. Establishing effective pedotransfer functions to predict CEC would be productive where there are limitations of time and money, and other commonly analyzed soil properties are available. References Khaledian, Y., Kiani, F., Ebrahimi, S., Brevik, E.C., Aitkenhead

Categorical and nonparametric data analysis choosing the best statistical technique

CERN Document Server

Nussbaum, E Michael

2014-01-01

Featuring in-depth coverage of categorical and nonparametric statistics, this book provides a conceptual framework for choosing the most appropriate type of test in various research scenarios. Class tested at the University of Nevada, the book's clear explanations of the underlying assumptions, computer simulations, and Exploring the Concept boxes help reduce reader anxiety. Problems inspired by actual studies provide meaningful illustrations of the techniques. The underlying assumptions of each test and the factors that impact validity and statistical power are reviewed so readers can explain

WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niemierko, A.

2016-06-15

Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niemierko, A.

2016-01-01

Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

UPPAAL-SMC: Statistical Model Checking for Priced Timed Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bulychev, Petr; David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

2012-01-01

on a series of extensions of the statistical model checking approach generalized to handle real-time systems and estimate undecidable problems. U PPAAL - SMC comes together with a friendly user interface that allows a user to specify complex problems in an efficient manner as well as to get feedback...... in the form of probability distributions and compare probabilities to analyze performance aspects of systems. The focus of the survey is on the evolution of the tool – including modeling and specification formalisms as well as techniques applied – together with applications of the tool to case studies....

Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

2017-06-01

Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

Statistical model for OCT image denoising

KAUST Repository

Li, Muxingzi

2017-08-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive technique with a large array of applications in clinical imaging and biological tissue visualization. However, the presence of speckle noise affects the analysis of OCT images and their diagnostic utility. In this article, we introduce a new OCT denoising algorithm. The proposed method is founded on a numerical optimization framework based on maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the noise-free OCT image. It combines a novel speckle noise model, derived from local statistics of empirical spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) data, with a Huber variant of total variation regularization for edge preservation. The proposed approach exhibits satisfying results in terms of speckle noise reduction as well as edge preservation, at reduced computational cost.

Finite element modeling of the human kidney for probabilistic occupant models: Statistical shape analysis and mesh morphing.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Keegan M; Untaroiu, Costin D

2018-04-16

Statistical shape analysis was conducted on 15 pairs (left and right) of human kidneys. It was shown that the left and right kidney were significantly different in size and shape. In addition, several common modes of kidney variation were identified using statistical shape analysis. Semi-automatic mesh morphing techniques have been developed to efficiently create subject specific meshes from a template mesh with a similar geometry. Subject specific meshes as well as probabilistic kidney meshes were created from a template mesh. Mesh quality remained about the same as the template mesh while only taking a fraction of the time to create the mesh from scratch or morph with manually identified landmarks. This technique can help enhance the quality of information gathered from experimental testing with subject specific meshes as well as help to more efficiently predict injury by creating models with the mean shape as well as models at the extremes for each principal component. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classical model of intermediate statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaniadakis, G.

1994-01-01

In this work we present a classical kinetic model of intermediate statistics. In the case of Brownian particles we show that the Fermi-Dirac (FD) and Bose-Einstein (BE) distributions can be obtained, just as the Maxwell-Boltzmann (MD) distribution, as steady states of a classical kinetic equation that intrinsically takes into account an exclusion-inclusion principle. In our model the intermediate statistics are obtained as steady states of a system of coupled nonlinear kinetic equations, where the coupling constants are the transmutational potentials η κκ' . We show that, besides the FD-BE intermediate statistics extensively studied from the quantum point of view, we can also study the MB-FD and MB-BE ones. Moreover, our model allows us to treat the three-state mixing FD-MB-BE intermediate statistics. For boson and fermion mixing in a D-dimensional space, we obtain a family of FD-BE intermediate statistics by varying the transmutational potential η BF . This family contains, as a particular case when η BF =0, the quantum statistics recently proposed by L. Wu, Z. Wu, and J. Sun [Phys. Lett. A 170, 280 (1992)]. When we consider the two-dimensional FD-BE statistics, we derive an analytic expression of the fraction of fermions. When the temperature T→∞, the system is composed by an equal number of bosons and fermions, regardless of the value of η BF . On the contrary, when T=0, η BF becomes important and, according to its value, the system can be completely bosonic or fermionic, or composed both by bosons and fermions

Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben S.

2016-01-01

The objective in this article is twofold. On one hand, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) framework for improved wind speed forecast accuracy is described and evaluated. On the other hand, the approach explored identifies unintuitive explanatory value from a diagnostic variable in an operational....... Based on the statistical model candidates inferred from the data, the lifted index NWP model diagnostic is consistently found among the NWP model predictors of the best performing statistical models across sites....

Statistical modelling of transcript profiles of differentially regulated genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergeant Martin J

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The vast quantities of gene expression profiling data produced in microarray studies, and the more precise quantitative PCR, are often not statistically analysed to their full potential. Previous studies have summarised gene expression profiles using simple descriptive statistics, basic analysis of variance (ANOVA and the clustering of genes based on simple models fitted to their expression profiles over time. We report the novel application of statistical non-linear regression modelling techniques to describe the shapes of expression profiles for the fungus Agaricus bisporus, quantified by PCR, and for E. coli and Rattus norvegicus, using microarray technology. The use of parametric non-linear regression models provides a more precise description of expression profiles, reducing the "noise" of the raw data to produce a clear "signal" given by the fitted curve, and describing each profile with a small number of biologically interpretable parameters. This approach then allows the direct comparison and clustering of the shapes of response patterns between genes and potentially enables a greater exploration and interpretation of the biological processes driving gene expression. Results Quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-derived time-course data of genes were modelled. "Split-line" or "broken-stick" regression identified the initial time of gene up-regulation, enabling the classification of genes into those with primary and secondary responses. Five-day profiles were modelled using the biologically-oriented, critical exponential curve, y(t = A + (B + CtRt + ε. This non-linear regression approach allowed the expression patterns for different genes to be compared in terms of curve shape, time of maximal transcript level and the decline and asymptotic response levels. Three distinct regulatory patterns were identified for the five genes studied. Applying the regression modelling approach to microarray-derived time course data

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2005-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

Aspects of statistical model for multifragmentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, P.; Das Gupta, S.; Mekjian, A. Z.

1999-01-01

We deal with two different aspects of an exactly soluble statistical model of fragmentation. First we show, using zero range force and finite temperature Thomas-Fermi theory, that a common link can be found between finite temperature mean field theory and the statistical fragmentation model. We show the latter naturally arises in the spinodal region. Next we show that although the exact statistical model is a canonical model and uses temperature, microcanonical results which use constant energy rather than constant temperature can also be obtained from the canonical model using saddle-point approximation. The methodology is extremely simple to implement and at least in all the examples studied in this work is very accurate. (c) 1999 The American Physical Society

Statistical Compression for Climate Model Output

Science.gov (United States)

Hammerling, D.; Guinness, J.; Soh, Y. J.

2017-12-01

Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus is it important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions. We propose a statistical compression and decompression algorithm based on storing a set of summary statistics as well as a statistical model describing the conditional distribution of the full dataset given the summary statistics. We decompress the data by computing conditional expectations and conditional simulations from the model given the summary statistics. Conditional expectations represent our best estimate of the original data but are subject to oversmoothing in space and time. Conditional simulations introduce realistic small-scale noise so that the decompressed fields are neither too smooth nor too rough compared with the original data. Considerable attention is paid to accurately modeling the original dataset-one year of daily mean temperature data-particularly with regard to the inherent spatial nonstationarity in global fields, and to determining the statistics to be stored, so that the variation in the original data can be closely captured, while allowing for fast decompression and conditional emulation on modest computers.

Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobson, J.J.

1992-01-01

The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability

Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Jóan Petur; Jacobsen, Daniel J.; Winther, Ole

2012-01-01

This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks...

Performance evaluation of a hybrid-passive landfill leachate treatment system using multivariate statistical techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wallace, Jack, E-mail: jack.wallace@ce.queensu.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Queen’s University, Ellis Hall, 58 University Avenue, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6 (Canada); Champagne, Pascale, E-mail: champagne@civil.queensu.ca [Department of Civil Engineering, Queen’s University, Ellis Hall, 58 University Avenue, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6 (Canada); Monnier, Anne-Charlotte, E-mail: anne-charlotte.monnier@insa-lyon.fr [National Institute for Applied Sciences – Lyon, 20 Avenue Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)

2015-01-15

Highlights: • Performance of a hybrid passive landfill leachate treatment system was evaluated. • 33 Water chemistry parameters were sampled for 21 months and statistically analyzed. • Parameters were strongly linked and explained most (>40%) of the variation in data. • Alkalinity, ammonia, COD, heavy metals, and iron were criteria for performance. • Eight other parameters were key in modeling system dynamics and criteria. - Abstract: A pilot-scale hybrid-passive treatment system operated at the Merrick Landfill in North Bay, Ontario, Canada, treats municipal landfill leachate and provides for subsequent natural attenuation. Collected leachate is directed to a hybrid-passive treatment system, followed by controlled release to a natural attenuation zone before entering the nearby Little Sturgeon River. The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the system using multivariate statistical techniques to determine the interactions between parameters, major pollutants in the leachate, and the biological and chemical processes occurring in the system. Five parameters (ammonia, alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), “heavy” metals of interest, with atomic weights above calcium, and iron) were set as criteria for the evaluation of system performance based on their toxicity to aquatic ecosystems and importance in treatment with respect to discharge regulations. System data for a full range of water quality parameters over a 21-month period were analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA), as well as principal components (PC) and partial least squares (PLS) regressions. PCA indicated a high degree of association for most parameters with the first PC, which explained a high percentage (>40%) of the variation in the data, suggesting strong statistical relationships among most of the parameters in the system. Regression analyses identified 8 parameters (set as independent variables) that were most frequently retained for modeling

The potential of statistical shape modelling for geometric morphometric analysis of human teeth in archaeological research.

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, Christopher; Fernee, Christianne; Browne, Martin; Zakrzewski, Sonia; Dickinson, Alexander

2017-01-01

This paper introduces statistical shape modelling (SSM) for use in osteoarchaeology research. SSM is a full field, multi-material analytical technique, and is presented as a supplementary geometric morphometric (GM) tool. Lower mandibular canines from two archaeological populations and one modern population were sampled, digitised using micro-CT, aligned, registered to a baseline and statistically modelled using principal component analysis (PCA). Sample material properties were incorporated as a binary enamel/dentin parameter. Results were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively using anatomical landmarks. Finally, the technique's application was demonstrated for inter-sample comparison through analysis of the principal component (PC) weights. It was found that SSM could provide high detail qualitative and quantitative insight with respect to archaeological inter- and intra-sample variability. This technique has value for archaeological, biomechanical and forensic applications including identification, finite element analysis (FEA) and reconstruction from partial datasets.

Statistical precision of delayed-neutron nondestructive assay techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayne, C.K.; McNeany, S.R.

1979-02-01

A theoretical analysis of the statistical precision of delayed-neutron nondestructive assay instruments is presented. Such instruments measure the fissile content of nuclear fuel samples by neutron irradiation and delayed-neutron detection. The precision of these techniques is limited by the statistical nature of the nuclear decay process, but the precision can be optimized by proper selection of system operating parameters. Our method is a three-part analysis. We first present differential--difference equations describing the fundamental physics of the measurements. We then derive and present complete analytical solutions to these equations. Final equations governing the expected number and variance of delayed-neutron counts were computer programmed to calculate the relative statistical precision of specific system operating parameters. Our results show that Poisson statistics do not govern the number of counts accumulated in multiple irradiation-count cycles and that, in general, maximum count precision does not correspond with maximum count as first expected. Covariance between the counts of individual cycles must be considered in determining the optimum number of irradiation-count cycles and the optimum irradiation-to-count time ratio. For the assay system in use at ORNL, covariance effects are small, but for systems with short irradiation-to-count transition times, covariance effects force the optimum number of irradiation-count cycles to be half those giving maximum count. We conclude that the equations governing the expected value and variance of delayed-neutron counts have been derived in closed form. These have been computerized and can be used to select optimum operating parameters for delayed-neutron assay devices

Sensometrics: Thurstonian and Statistical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen

. sensR is a package for sensory discrimination testing with Thurstonian models and ordinal supports analysis of ordinal data with cumulative link (mixed) models. While sensR is closely connected to the sensometrics field, the ordinal package has developed into a generic statistical package applicable......This thesis is concerned with the development and bridging of Thurstonian and statistical models for sensory discrimination testing as applied in the scientific discipline of sensometrics. In sensory discrimination testing sensory differences between products are detected and quantified by the use...... and sensory discrimination testing in particular in a series of papers by advancing Thurstonian models for a range of sensory discrimination protocols in addition to facilitating their application by providing software for fitting these models. The main focus is on identifying Thurstonian models...

Spatio-temporal statistical models with applications to atmospheric processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wikle, C.K.

1996-01-01

This doctoral dissertation is presented as three self-contained papers. An introductory chapter considers traditional spatio-temporal statistical methods used in the atmospheric sciences from a statistical perspective. Although this section is primarily a review, many of the statistical issues considered have not been considered in the context of these methods and several open questions are posed. The first paper attempts to determine a means of characterizing the semiannual oscillation (SAO) spatial variation in the northern hemisphere extratropical height field. It was discovered that the midlatitude SAO in 500hPa geopotential height could be explained almost entirely as a result of spatial and temporal asymmetries in the annual variation of stationary eddies. It was concluded that the mechanism for the SAO in the northern hemisphere is a result of land-sea contrasts. The second paper examines the seasonal variability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGW) in lower stratospheric over the equatorial Pacific. Advanced cyclostationary time series techniques were used for analysis. It was found that there are significant twice-yearly peaks in MRGW activity. Analyses also suggested a convergence of horizontal momentum flux associated with these waves. In the third paper, a new spatio-temporal statistical model is proposed that attempts to consider the influence of both temporal and spatial variability. This method is mainly concerned with prediction in space and time, and provides a spatially descriptive and temporally dynamic model

Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

2002-03-01

Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Statistical Model-Based Face Pose Estimation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GE Xinliang; YANG Jie; LI Feng; WANG Huahua

2007-01-01

A robust face pose estimation approach is proposed by using face shape statistical model approach and pose parameters are represented by trigonometric functions. The face shape statistical model is firstly built by analyzing the face shapes from different people under varying poses. The shape alignment is vital in the process of building the statistical model. Then, six trigonometric functions are employed to represent the face pose parameters. Lastly, the mapping function is constructed between face image and face pose by linearly relating different parameters. The proposed approach is able to estimate different face poses using a few face training samples. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate its efficiency and accuracy.

A neuro-fuzzy computing technique for modeling hydrological time series

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Rangan, D. M.; Ramasastri, K. S.

2004-05-01

Intelligent computing tools such as artificial neural network (ANN) and fuzzy logic approaches are proven to be efficient when applied individually to a variety of problems. Recently there has been a growing interest in combining both these approaches, and as a result, neuro-fuzzy computing techniques have evolved. This approach has been tested and evaluated in the field of signal processing and related areas, but researchers have only begun evaluating the potential of this neuro-fuzzy hybrid approach in hydrologic modeling studies. This paper presents the application of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to hydrologic time series modeling, and is illustrated by an application to model the river flow of Baitarani River in Orissa state, India. An introduction to the ANFIS modeling approach is also presented. The advantage of the method is that it does not require the model structure to be known a priori, in contrast to most of the time series modeling techniques. The results showed that the ANFIS forecasted flow series preserves the statistical properties of the original flow series. The model showed good performance in terms of various statistical indices. The results are highly promising, and a comparative analysis suggests that the proposed modeling approach outperforms ANNs and other traditional time series models in terms of computational speed, forecast errors, efficiency, peak flow estimation etc. It was observed that the ANFIS model preserves the potential of the ANN approach fully, and eases the model building process.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siljander, M.

2010-07-01

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Aaland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics

Development of a statistical model for cervical cancer cell death with irreversible electroporation in vitro.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yongji; Moser, Michael A J; Zhang, Edwin; Zhang, Wenjun; Zhang, Bing

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model for cell death by irreversible electroporation (IRE) and to show that the statistic model is more accurate than the electric field threshold model in the literature using cervical cancer cells in vitro. HeLa cell line was cultured and treated with different IRE protocols in order to obtain data for modeling the statistical relationship between the cell death and pulse-setting parameters. In total, 340 in vitro experiments were performed with a commercial IRE pulse system, including a pulse generator and an electric cuvette. Trypan blue staining technique was used to evaluate cell death after 4 hours of incubation following IRE treatment. Peleg-Fermi model was used in the study to build the statistical relationship using the cell viability data obtained from the in vitro experiments. A finite element model of IRE for the electric field distribution was also built. Comparison of ablation zones between the statistical model and electric threshold model (drawn from the finite element model) was used to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the description of the ablation zone and its applicability in different pulse-setting parameters. The statistical models describing the relationships between HeLa cell death and pulse length and the number of pulses, respectively, were built. The values of the curve fitting parameters were obtained using the Peleg-Fermi model for the treatment of cervical cancer with IRE. The difference in the ablation zone between the statistical model and the electric threshold model was also illustrated to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the representation of ablation zone in IRE. This study concluded that: (1) the proposed statistical model accurately described the ablation zone of IRE with cervical cancer cells, and was more accurate compared with the electric field model; (2) the proposed statistical model was able to estimate the value of electric

Statistical evaluation of recorded knowledge in nuclear and other instrumental analytical techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, T.

1987-01-01

The main points addressed in this study are the following: Statistical distribution patterns of published literature on instrumental analytical techniques 1981-1984; structure of scientific literature and heuristics for identifying active specialities and emerging hot spot research areas in instrumental analytical techniques; growth and growth rates of the literature in some of the identified hot research areas; quality and quantity in instrumental analytical research output. (orig.)

Finite-element-model updating using computational intelligence techniques applications to structural dynamics

CERN Document Server

Marwala, Tshilidzi

2010-01-01

Finite element models (FEMs) are widely used to understand the dynamic behaviour of various systems. FEM updating allows FEMs to be tuned better to reflect measured data and may be conducted using two different statistical frameworks: the maximum likelihood approach and Bayesian approaches. Finite Element Model Updating Using Computational Intelligence Techniques applies both strategies to the field of structural mechanics, an area vital for aerospace, civil and mechanical engineering. Vibration data is used for the updating process. Following an introduction a number of computational intelligence techniques to facilitate the updating process are proposed; they include: • multi-layer perceptron neural networks for real-time FEM updating; • particle swarm and genetic-algorithm-based optimization methods to accommodate the demands of global versus local optimization models; • simulated annealing to put the methodologies into a sound statistical basis; and • response surface methods and expectation m...

Simple statistical model for branched aggregates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt

2015-01-01

, given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory......We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule...

Statistical Method to Overcome Overfitting Issue in Rational Function Models

Science.gov (United States)

Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. H.; Mokhtarzade, M.; Alizadeh Naeini, A.; Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. A.

2017-09-01

Rational function models (RFMs) are known as one of the most appealing models which are extensively applied in geometric correction of satellite images and map production. Overfitting is a common issue, in the case of terrain dependent RFMs, that degrades the accuracy of RFMs-derived geospatial products. This issue, resulting from the high number of RFMs' parameters, leads to ill-posedness of the RFMs. To tackle this problem, in this study, a fast and robust statistical approach is proposed and compared to Tikhonov regularization (TR) method, as a frequently-used solution to RFMs' overfitting. In the proposed method, a statistical test, namely, significance test is applied to search for the RFMs' parameters that are resistant against overfitting issue. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated for two real data sets of Cartosat-1 satellite images. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in term of the achievable level of accuracy. This technique, indeed, shows an improvement of 50-80% over the TR.

Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

Science.gov (United States)

Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

2015-01-01

Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

The potential of statistical shape modelling for geometric morphometric analysis of human teeth in archaeological research.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Woods

Full Text Available This paper introduces statistical shape modelling (SSM for use in osteoarchaeology research. SSM is a full field, multi-material analytical technique, and is presented as a supplementary geometric morphometric (GM tool. Lower mandibular canines from two archaeological populations and one modern population were sampled, digitised using micro-CT, aligned, registered to a baseline and statistically modelled using principal component analysis (PCA. Sample material properties were incorporated as a binary enamel/dentin parameter. Results were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively using anatomical landmarks. Finally, the technique's application was demonstrated for inter-sample comparison through analysis of the principal component (PC weights. It was found that SSM could provide high detail qualitative and quantitative insight with respect to archaeological inter- and intra-sample variability. This technique has value for archaeological, biomechanical and forensic applications including identification, finite element analysis (FEA and reconstruction from partial datasets.

Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

2013-01-01

A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...

Comparison of adaptive statistical iterative and filtered back projection reconstruction techniques in brain CT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Qingguo; Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar; Li, Ming; Li, Jianying; Mao, Dingbiao; Wang, Zhenglei; Hua, Yanqing

2012-01-01

Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI vol ) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique

Comparison of adaptive statistical iterative and filtered back projection reconstruction techniques in brain CT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Qingguo, E-mail: renqg83@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Dewan, Sheilesh Kumar, E-mail: sheilesh_d1@hotmail.com [Department of Geriatrics, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Ming, E-mail: minli77@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Li, Jianying, E-mail: Jianying.Li@med.ge.com [CT Imaging Research Center, GE Healthcare China, Beijing (China); Mao, Dingbiao, E-mail: maodingbiao74@163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China); Wang, Zhenglei, E-mail: Williswang_doc@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Radiology, Shanghai Electricity Hospital, Shanghai 200050 (China); Hua, Yanqing, E-mail: cjr.huayanqing@vip.163.com [Department of Radiology, Hua Dong Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200040 (China)

2012-10-15

Purpose: To compare image quality and visualization of normal structures and lesions in brain computed tomography (CT) with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) and filtered back projection (FBP) reconstruction techniques in different X-ray tube current–time products. Materials and methods: In this IRB-approved prospective study, forty patients (nineteen men, twenty-one women; mean age 69.5 ± 11.2 years) received brain scan at different tube current–time products (300 and 200 mAs) in 64-section multi-detector CT (GE, Discovery CT750 HD). Images were reconstructed with FBP and four levels of ASIR-FBP blending. Two radiologists (please note that our hospital is renowned for its geriatric medicine department, and these two radiologists are more experienced in chronic cerebral vascular disease than in neoplastic disease, so this research did not contain cerebral tumors but as a discussion) assessed all the reconstructed images for visibility of normal structures, lesion conspicuity, image contrast and diagnostic confidence in a blinded and randomized manner. Volume CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded. All the data were analyzed by using SPSS 13.0 statistical analysis software. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the image qualities at 200 mAs with 50% ASIR blending technique and 300 mAs with FBP technique (p > .05). While between the image qualities at 200 mAs with FBP and 300 mAs with FBP technique a statistically significant difference (p < .05) was found. Conclusion: ASIR provided same image quality and diagnostic ability in brain imaging with greater than 30% dose reduction compared with FBP reconstruction technique.

Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

CERN Document Server

Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

2011-01-01

In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Bury, Thomas

2013-03-01

Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John

2009-01-01

(dansk abstrakt findes ikke) Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of  data......: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying...

Models and statistical analysis of organic micropollutants in groundwater-based drinking water resources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malaguerra, Flavio

The access to safe drinking water is essential for the well being of the population. The spread of micropollutant contamination jeopardise many freshwater reservoirs, and is a serious threat for human health, especially because of its long-term effects. To asses the threat of contamination, models...... to model. The identification of dominant processes is an essential step in the understanding of system behaviour, because it enables the development of simplified models that can approximate the fate of contaminants with the best trade-off between model complexity and reliability of results. In this thesis......, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess detailed models in order to identify the main processes involved in the degradation of chlorinated solvents in the subsurface, and in the transport of pesticides from surface water into nearby wells in confined aquifers. Statistical techniques...

Statistical Modelling of the Soil Dielectric Constant

Science.gov (United States)

Usowicz, Boguslaw; Marczewski, Wojciech; Bogdan Usowicz, Jerzy; Lipiec, Jerzy

2010-05-01

The dielectric constant of soil is the physical property being very sensitive on water content. It funds several electrical measurement techniques for determining the water content by means of direct (TDR, FDR, and others related to effects of electrical conductance and/or capacitance) and indirect RS (Remote Sensing) methods. The work is devoted to a particular statistical manner of modelling the dielectric constant as the property accounting a wide range of specific soil composition, porosity, and mass density, within the unsaturated water content. Usually, similar models are determined for few particular soil types, and changing the soil type one needs switching the model on another type or to adjust it by parametrization of soil compounds. Therefore, it is difficult comparing and referring results between models. The presented model was developed for a generic representation of soil being a hypothetical mixture of spheres, each representing a soil fraction, in its proper phase state. The model generates a serial-parallel mesh of conductive and capacitive paths, which is analysed for a total conductive or capacitive property. The model was firstly developed to determine the thermal conductivity property, and now it is extended on the dielectric constant by analysing the capacitive mesh. The analysis is provided by statistical means obeying physical laws related to the serial-parallel branching of the representative electrical mesh. Physical relevance of the analysis is established electrically, but the definition of the electrical mesh is controlled statistically by parametrization of compound fractions, by determining the number of representative spheres per unitary volume per fraction, and by determining the number of fractions. That way the model is capable covering properties of nearly all possible soil types, all phase states within recognition of the Lorenz and Knudsen conditions. In effect the model allows on generating a hypothetical representative of

Smooth extrapolation of unknown anatomy via statistical shape models

Science.gov (United States)

Grupp, R. B.; Chiang, H.; Otake, Y.; Murphy, R. J.; Gordon, C. R.; Armand, M.; Taylor, R. H.

2015-03-01

Several methods to perform extrapolation of unknown anatomy were evaluated. The primary application is to enhance surgical procedures that may use partial medical images or medical images of incomplete anatomy. Le Fort-based, face-jaw-teeth transplant is one such procedure. From CT data of 36 skulls and 21 mandibles separate Statistical Shape Models of the anatomical surfaces were created. Using the Statistical Shape Models, incomplete surfaces were projected to obtain complete surface estimates. The surface estimates exhibit non-zero error in regions where the true surface is known; it is desirable to keep the true surface and seamlessly merge the estimated unknown surface. Existing extrapolation techniques produce non-smooth transitions from the true surface to the estimated surface, resulting in additional error and a less aesthetically pleasing result. The three extrapolation techniques evaluated were: copying and pasting of the surface estimate (non-smooth baseline), a feathering between the patient surface and surface estimate, and an estimate generated via a Thin Plate Spline trained from displacements between the surface estimate and corresponding vertices of the known patient surface. Feathering and Thin Plate Spline approaches both yielded smooth transitions. However, feathering corrupted known vertex values. Leave-one-out analyses were conducted, with 5% to 50% of known anatomy removed from the left-out patient and estimated via the proposed approaches. The Thin Plate Spline approach yielded smaller errors than the other two approaches, with an average vertex error improvement of 1.46 mm and 1.38 mm for the skull and mandible respectively, over the baseline approach.

Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

Science.gov (United States)

White, H; Racine, J

2001-01-01

We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

CERN Document Server

Briggs, William

2016-01-01

This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

Application of Statistical Model in Wastewater Treatment Process Modeling Using Data Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza Raygan Shirazinezhad

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Wastewater treatment includes very complex and interrelated physical, chemical and biological processes which using data analysis techniques can be rigorously modeled by a non-complex mathematical calculation models. Materials and Methods: In this study, data on wastewater treatment processes from water and wastewater company of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad were used. A total of 3306 data for COD, TSS, PH and turbidity were collected, then analyzed by SPSS-16 software (descriptive statistics and data analysis IBM SPSS Modeler 14.2, through 9 algorithm. Results: According to the results on logistic regression algorithms, neural networks, Bayesian networks, discriminant analysis, decision tree C5, tree C & R, CHAID, QUEST and SVM had accuracy precision of 90.16, 94.17, 81.37, 70.48, 97.89, 96.56, 96.46, 96.84 and 88.92, respectively. Discussion and conclusion: The C5 algorithm as the best and most applicable algorithms for modeling of wastewater treatment processes were chosen carefully with accuracy of 97.899 and the most influential variables in this model were PH, COD, TSS and turbidity.

Statistical Models for Social Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS

2011-01-01

Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For

[Intestinal lengthening techniques: an experimental model in dogs].

Science.gov (United States)

Garibay González, Francisco; Díaz Martínez, Daniel Alberto; Valencia Flores, Alejandro; González Hernández, Miguel Angel

2005-01-01

To compare two intestinal lengthening procedures in an experimental dog model. Intestinal lengthening is one of the methods for gastrointestinal reconstruction used for treatment of short bowel syndrome. The modification to the Bianchi's technique is an alternative. The modified technique decreases the number of anastomoses to a single one, thus reducing the risk of leaks and strictures. To our knowledge there is not any clinical or experimental report that studied both techniques, so we realized the present report. Twelve creole dogs were operated with the Bianchi technique for intestinal lengthening (group A) and other 12 creole dogs from the same race and weight were operated by the modified technique (Group B). Both groups were compared in relation to operating time, difficulties in technique, cost, intestinal lengthening and anastomoses diameter. There were no statistical difference in the anastomoses diameter (A = 9.0 mm vs. B = 8.5 mm, p = 0.3846). Operating time (142 min vs. 63 min) cost and technique difficulties were lower in group B (p anastomoses (of Group B) and intestinal segments had good blood supply and were patent along their full length. Bianchi technique and the modified technique offer two good reliable alternatives for the treatment of short bowel syndrome. The modified technique improved operating time, cost and technical issues.

Introduction to conformal invariance in statistical mechanics and to random surface models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David, F.

1995-01-01

In the first part of these lectures I give a brief and somewhat superficial introduction to the techniques of conformal invariance and to a few applications in statistical mechanics in two dimensions. My purpose is to introduce the basic ideas and some standard results for the students who are not familiar with the theory, and to introduce concepts and tools which will be useful for the other lecturers, rather than to give a complete and up to date review of the subject. In the second part I discuss several problems in the statistical mechanics of two dimensional random surfaces and membranes. As an introduction, I present some basic facts about the statistical mechanics of one-dimensional objects and polymers, which are classical examples of objects with critical properties. Then I emphasize the special role of curvature energy and of the elastic energy associated with the internal structure of membranes, and the corresponding models of random surfaces. Finally, I discuss the specific problem of self-avoiding tethered surfaces, whose critical properties are still poorly understood, and for which the applicability of some basic techniques of field theory, such as renormalization group calculations, has been understood only recently. (orig.)

Experiments performed with a functional model based on statistical discrimination in mixed nuclear radiation field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valcov, N.; Celarel, A.; Purghel, L.

1999-01-01

By using the statistical discrimination technique, the components of on ionization current, due to a mixed radiation field, may be simultaneously measured. A functional model, including a serially manufactured gamma-ray ratemeter was developed, as an intermediate step in the design of specialised nuclear instrumentation, in order to check the concept of statistical discrimination method. The obtained results are in good agreement with the estimations of the statistical discrimination method. The main characteristics of the functional model are the following: - dynamic range of measurement: >300: l; - simultaneous measurement of natural radiation background and gamma-ray fields; - accuracy (for equal exposure rates from gamma's and natural radiation background): 17%, for both radiation fields; - minimum detectable exposure rate: 2μR/h. (authors)

Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

Determination of daily solar ultraviolet radiation using statistical models and artificial neural networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. J. Barbero

2006-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, two different methodologies are used to develop two models for estimating daily solar UV radiation. The first is based on traditional statistical techniques whereas the second is based on artificial neural network methods. Both models use daily solar global broadband radiation as the only measured input. The statistical model is derived from a relationship between the daily UV and the global clearness indices but modulated by the relative optical air mass. The inputs to the neural network model were determined from a large number of radiometric and atmospheric parameters using the automatic relevance determination method, although only the daily solar global irradiation, daily global clearness index and relative optical air mass were shown to be the optimal input variables. Both statistical and neural network models were developed using data measured at Almería (Spain, a semiarid and coastal climate, and tested against data from Table Mountain (Golden, CO, USA, a mountainous and dry environment. Results show that the statistical model performs adequately in both sites for all weather conditions, especially when only snow-free days at Golden were considered (RMSE=4.6%, MBE= –0.1%. The neural network based model provides the best overall estimates in the site where it has been trained, but presents an inadequate performance for the Golden site when snow-covered days are included (RMSE=6.5%, MBE= –3.0%. This result confirms that the neural network model does not adequately respond on those ranges of the input parameters which were not used for its development.

Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad

The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....

Statistical limitations in functional neuroimaging. I. Non-inferential methods and statistical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersson, K M; Nichols, T E; Poline, J B; Holmes, A P

1999-01-01

Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference. PMID:10466149

Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

CERN Document Server

Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

2002-01-01

This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

The nano-mechanical signature of Ultra High Performance Concrete by statistical nanoindentation techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sorelli, Luca; Constantinides, Georgios; Ulm, Franz-Josef; Toutlemonde, Francois

2008-01-01

Advances in engineering the microstructure of cementitious composites have led to the development of fiber reinforced Ultra High Performance Concretes (UHPC). The scope of this paper is twofold, first to characterize the nano-mechanical properties of the phases governing the UHPC microstructure by means of a novel statistical nanoindentation technique; then to upscale those nanoscale properties, by means of continuum micromechanics, to the macroscopic scale of engineering applications. In particular, a combined investigation of nanoindentation, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) indicates that the fiber-matrix transition zone is relatively defect free. On this basis, a four-level multiscale model with defect free interfaces allows to accurately determine the composite stiffness from the measured nano-mechanical properties. Besides evidencing the dominant role of high density calcium silicate hydrates and the stiffening effect of residual clinker, the suggested model may become a useful tool for further optimizing cement-based engineered composites

International Conference on Robust Statistics 2015

CERN Document Server

Basu, Ayanendranath; Filzmoser, Peter; Mukherjee, Diganta

2016-01-01

This book offers a collection of recent contributions and emerging ideas in the areas of robust statistics presented at the International Conference on Robust Statistics 2015 (ICORS 2015) held in Kolkata during 12–16 January, 2015. The book explores the applicability of robust methods in other non-traditional areas which includes the use of new techniques such as skew and mixture of skew distributions, scaled Bregman divergences, and multilevel functional data methods; application areas being circular data models and prediction of mortality and life expectancy. The contributions are of both theoretical as well as applied in nature. Robust statistics is a relatively young branch of statistical sciences that is rapidly emerging as the bedrock of statistical analysis in the 21st century due to its flexible nature and wide scope. Robust statistics supports the application of parametric and other inference techniques over a broader domain than the strictly interpreted model scenarios employed in classical statis...

The Impact of Statistical Leakage Models on Design Yield Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rouwaida Kanj

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Device mismatch and process variation models play a key role in determining the functionality and yield of sub-100 nm design. Average characteristics are often of interest, such as the average leakage current or the average read delay. However, detecting rare functional fails is critical for memory design and designers often seek techniques that enable accurately modeling such events. Extremely leaky devices can inflict functionality fails. The plurality of leaky devices on a bitline increase the dimensionality of the yield estimation problem. Simplified models are possible by adopting approximations to the underlying sum of lognormals. The implications of such approximations on tail probabilities may in turn bias the yield estimate. We review different closed form approximations and compare against the CDF matching method, which is shown to be most effective method for accurate statistical leakage modeling.

Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lü, Xiaoshu; Lu, Tao; Kibert, Charles J.; Viljanen, Martti

2015-01-01

Highlights: • This paper presents a new modeling method to forecast energy demands. • The model is based on physical–statistical approach to improving forecast accuracy. • A new method is proposed to address the heterogeneity challenge. • Comparison with measurements shows accurate forecasts of the model. • The first physical–statistical/heterogeneous building energy modeling approach is proposed and validated. - Abstract: Energy consumption forecasting is a critical and necessary input to planning and controlling energy usage in the building sector which accounts for 40% of the world’s energy use and the world’s greatest fraction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, due to the diversity and complexity of buildings as well as the random nature of weather conditions, energy consumption and loads are stochastic and difficult to predict. This paper presents a new methodology for energy demand forecasting that addresses the heterogeneity challenges in energy modeling of buildings. The new method is based on a physical–statistical approach designed to account for building heterogeneity to improve forecast accuracy. The physical model provides a theoretical input to characterize the underlying physical mechanism of energy flows. Then stochastic parameters are introduced into the physical model and the statistical time series model is formulated to reflect model uncertainties and individual heterogeneity in buildings. A new method of model generalization based on a convex hull technique is further derived to parameterize the individual-level model parameters for consistent model coefficients while maintaining satisfactory modeling accuracy for heterogeneous buildings. The proposed method and its validation are presented in detail for four different sports buildings with field measurements. The results show that the proposed methodology and model can provide a considerable improvement in forecasting accuracy

Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

2007-01-01

Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

Lectures on algebraic statistics

CERN Document Server

Drton, Mathias; Sullivant, Seth

2009-01-01

How does an algebraic geometer studying secant varieties further the understanding of hypothesis tests in statistics? Why would a statistician working on factor analysis raise open problems about determinantal varieties? Connections of this type are at the heart of the new field of "algebraic statistics". In this field, mathematicians and statisticians come together to solve statistical inference problems using concepts from algebraic geometry as well as related computational and combinatorial techniques. The goal of these lectures is to introduce newcomers from the different camps to algebraic statistics. The introduction will be centered around the following three observations: many important statistical models correspond to algebraic or semi-algebraic sets of parameters; the geometry of these parameter spaces determines the behaviour of widely used statistical inference procedures; computational algebraic geometry can be used to study parameter spaces and other features of statistical models.

Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2009-01-01

Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

Validation of non-stationary precipitation series for site-specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Mullan, Donal; Chen, Jie; Zhang, Xunchang John

2016-02-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers

CERN Document Server

Peng, Defen

2014-01-01

This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...

Territories typification technique with use of statistical models

Science.gov (United States)

Galkin, V. I.; Rastegaev, A. V.; Seredin, V. V.; Andrianov, A. V.

2018-05-01

Territories typification is required for solution of many problems. The results of geological zoning received by means of various methods do not always agree. That is why the main goal of the research given is to develop a technique of obtaining a multidimensional standard classified indicator for geological zoning. In the course of the research, the probabilistic approach was used. In order to increase the reliability of geological information classification, the authors suggest using complex multidimensional probabilistic indicator P K as a criterion of the classification. The second criterion chosen is multidimensional standard classified indicator Z. These can serve as characteristics of classification in geological-engineering zoning. Above mentioned indicators P K and Z are in good correlation. Correlation coefficient values for the entire territory regardless of structural solidity equal r = 0.95 so each indicator can be used in geological-engineering zoning. The method suggested has been tested and the schematic map of zoning has been drawn.

Mathematical-statistical models and qualitative theories for economic and social sciences

CERN Document Server

Maturo, Fabrizio; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2017-01-01

This book presents a broad spectrum of problems related to statistics, mathematics, teaching, social science, and economics as well as a range of tools and techniques that can be used to solve these problems. It is the result of a scientific collaboration between experts in the field of economic and social systems from the University of Defence in Brno (Czech Republic), G. d’Annunzio University of Chieti-Pescara (Italy), Pablo de Olavid eUniversity of Sevilla (Spain), and Ovidius University in Constanţa, (Romania). The studies included were selected using a peer-review process and reflect heterogeneity and complexity of economic and social phenomena. They and present interesting empirical research from around the globe and from several research fields, such as statistics, decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. The volume is divided into two parts. The first part, “Recent trends in mathematical and statistical models for economic and social sciences”, collects pap...

Statistical Analysis of Input Parameters Impact on the Modelling of Underground Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Hilar

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The behaviour of a geomechanical model and its final results are strongly affected by the input parameters. As the inherent variability of rock mass is difficult to model, engineers are frequently forced to face the question “Which input values should be used for analyses?” The correct answer to such a question requires a probabilistic approach, considering the uncertainty of site investigations and variation in the ground. This paper describes the statistical analysis of input parameters for FEM calculations of traffic tunnels in the city of Prague. At the beginning of the paper, the inaccuracy in the geotechnical modelling is discussed. In the following part the Fuzzy techniques are summarized, including information about an application of the Fuzzy arithmetic on the shotcrete parameters. The next part of the paper is focused on the stochastic simulation – Monte Carlo Simulation is briefly described, Latin Hypercubes method is described more in details. At the end several practical examples are described: statistical analysis of the input parameters on the numerical modelling of the completed Mrázovka tunnel (profile West Tunnel Tube km 5.160 and modelling of the constructed tunnel Špejchar – Pelc Tyrolka. 

A Tensor Statistical Model for Quantifying Dynamic Functional Connectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yingying; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kim, Minjeong; Yan, Jin; Wu, Guorong

2017-06-01

Functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated in many imaging-based neuroscience and clinical studies. Since functional Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) signal is just an indirect reflection of brain activity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the FC strength only based on signal correlation. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based tensor model to derive high sensitivity and specificity connectome biomarkers at the individual level from resting-state fMRI images. First, we propose a learning-based approach to estimate the intrinsic functional connectivity. In addition to the low level region-to-region signal correlation, latent module-to-module connection is also estimated and used to provide high level heuristics for measuring connectivity strength. Furthermore, sparsity constraint is employed to automatically remove the spurious connections, thus alleviating the issue of searching for optimal threshold. Second, we integrate our learning-based approach with the sliding-window technique to further reveal the dynamics of functional connectivity. Specifically, we stack the functional connectivity matrix within each sliding window and form a 3D tensor where the third dimension denotes for time. Then we obtain dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) for each individual subject by simultaneously estimating the within-sliding-window functional connectivity and characterizing the across-sliding-window temporal dynamics. Third, in order to enhance the robustness of the connectome patterns extracted from dFC, we extend the individual-based 3D tensors to a population-based 4D tensor (with the fourth dimension stands for the training subjects) and learn the statistics of connectome patterns via 4D tensor analysis. Since our 4D tensor model jointly (1) optimizes dFC for each training subject and (2) captures the principle connectome patterns, our statistical model gains more statistical power of representing new subject than current state

Growth Curve and Structural Equation Modeling : Topics from the Indian Statistical Institute

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

This book describes some recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. A growth curve is an empirical model of the evolution of a quantity over time. Growth curves in longitudinal studies are used in disciplines including biology, statistics, population studies, economics, biological sciences, sociology, nano-biotechnology, and fluid mechanics. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of applied work. This volume builds on presentations from a GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, January 18-19, 2014. This book follows the volume Advances in Growth Curve Models, published by Springer in 2013. The results have meaningful application in health care, prediction of crop yield, child nutrition, poverty measurements, estimation of growth rate, and other research areas.

A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

2013-04-01

Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

Statistics for Finance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindström, Erik; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard

Statistics for Finance develops students’ professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors’ courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics...... that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical...... and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Itō’s formula, the Black–Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives...

Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

CERN Document Server

Lawless, Jerald F

2011-01-01

Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

Graphene growth process modeling: a physical-statistical approach

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jian; Huang, Qiang

2014-09-01

As a zero-band semiconductor, graphene is an attractive material for a wide variety of applications such as optoelectronics. Among various techniques developed for graphene synthesis, chemical vapor deposition on copper foils shows high potential for producing few-layer and large-area graphene. Since fabrication of high-quality graphene sheets requires the understanding of growth mechanisms, and methods of characterization and control of grain size of graphene flakes, analytical modeling of graphene growth process is therefore essential for controlled fabrication. The graphene growth process starts with randomly nucleated islands that gradually develop into complex shapes, grow in size, and eventually connect together to cover the copper foil. To model this complex process, we develop a physical-statistical approach under the assumption of self-similarity during graphene growth. The growth kinetics is uncovered by separating island shapes from area growth rate. We propose to characterize the area growth velocity using a confined exponential model, which not only has clear physical explanation, but also fits the real data well. For the shape modeling, we develop a parametric shape model which can be well explained by the angular-dependent growth rate. This work can provide useful information for the control and optimization of graphene growth process on Cu foil.

An Optimization Principle for Deriving Nonequilibrium Statistical Models of Hamiltonian Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Bruce

2013-08-01

A general method for deriving closed reduced models of Hamiltonian dynamical systems is developed using techniques from optimization and statistical estimation. Given a vector of resolved variables, selected to describe the macroscopic state of the system, a family of quasi-equilibrium probability densities on phase space corresponding to the resolved variables is employed as a statistical model, and the evolution of the mean resolved vector is estimated by optimizing over paths of these densities. Specifically, a cost function is constructed to quantify the lack-of-fit to the microscopic dynamics of any feasible path of densities from the statistical model; it is an ensemble-averaged, weighted, squared-norm of the residual that results from submitting the path of densities to the Liouville equation. The path that minimizes the time integral of the cost function determines the best-fit evolution of the mean resolved vector. The closed reduced equations satisfied by the optimal path are derived by Hamilton-Jacobi theory. When expressed in terms of the macroscopic variables, these equations have the generic structure of governing equations for nonequilibrium thermodynamics. In particular, the value function for the optimization principle coincides with the dissipation potential that defines the relation between thermodynamic forces and fluxes. The adjustable closure parameters in the best-fit reduced equations depend explicitly on the arbitrary weights that enter into the lack-of-fit cost function. Two particular model reductions are outlined to illustrate the general method. In each example the set of weights in the optimization principle contracts into a single effective closure parameter.

Supervised variational model with statistical inference and its application in medical image segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Changyang; Wang, Xiuying; Eberl, Stefan; Fulham, Michael; Yin, Yong; Dagan Feng, David

2015-01-01

Automated and general medical image segmentation can be challenging because the foreground and the background may have complicated and overlapping density distributions in medical imaging. Conventional region-based level set algorithms often assume piecewise constant or piecewise smooth for segments, which are implausible for general medical image segmentation. Furthermore, low contrast and noise make identification of the boundaries between foreground and background difficult for edge-based level set algorithms. Thus, to address these problems, we suggest a supervised variational level set segmentation model to harness the statistical region energy functional with a weighted probability approximation. Our approach models the region density distributions by using the mixture-of-mixtures Gaussian model to better approximate real intensity distributions and distinguish statistical intensity differences between foreground and background. The region-based statistical model in our algorithm can intuitively provide better performance on noisy images. We constructed a weighted probability map on graphs to incorporate spatial indications from user input with a contextual constraint based on the minimization of contextual graphs energy functional. We measured the performance of our approach on ten noisy synthetic images and 58 medical datasets with heterogeneous intensities and ill-defined boundaries and compared our technique to the Chan-Vese region-based level set model, the geodesic active contour model with distance regularization, and the random walker model. Our method consistently achieved the highest Dice similarity coefficient when compared to the other methods.

Statistical reconstruction for cosmic ray muon tomography.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Larry J; Blanpied, Gary S; Borozdin, Konstantin N; Fraser, Andrew M; Hengartner, Nicolas W; Klimenko, Alexei V; Morris, Christopher L; Orum, Chris; Sossong, Michael J

2007-08-01

Highly penetrating cosmic ray muons constantly shower the earth at a rate of about 1 muon per cm2 per minute. We have developed a technique which exploits the multiple Coulomb scattering of these particles to perform nondestructive inspection without the use of artificial radiation. In prior work [1]-[3], we have described heuristic methods for processing muon data to create reconstructed images. In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood/expectation maximization tomographic reconstruction algorithm designed for the technique. This algorithm borrows much from techniques used in medical imaging, particularly emission tomography, but the statistics of muon scattering dictates differences. We describe the statistical model for multiple scattering, derive the reconstruction algorithm, and present simulated examples. We also propose methods to improve the robustness of the algorithm to experimental errors and events departing from the statistical model.

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Fenta Mekonnen, Dagnenet; Disse, Markus

2018-04-01

Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase from 0.4 to 4.3 �

A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-11

This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

Model-generated air quality statistics for application in vegetation response models in Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McVehil, G.E.; Nosal, M.

1990-01-01

To test and apply vegetation response models in Alberta, air pollution statistics representative of various parts of the Province are required. At this time, air quality monitoring data of the requisite accuracy and time resolution are not available for most parts of Alberta. Therefore, there exists a need to develop appropriate air quality statistics. The objectives of the work reported here were to determine the applicability of model generated air quality statistics and to develop by modelling, realistic and representative time series of hourly SO 2 concentrations that could be used to generate the statistics demanded by vegetation response models

Performance modeling, loss networks, and statistical multiplexing

CERN Document Server

Mazumdar, Ravi

2009-01-01

This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the important ideas of Palm distributions associated with traffic models and their role in performance measures. Also presented are recent ideas of large buffer, and many sources asymptotics that play an important role in understanding statistical multiplexing. I

Hyperparameterization of soil moisture statistical models for North America with Ensemble Learning Models (Elm)

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, P. D.; Brener, G.; Duffy, D.; Nearing, G. S.; Pelissier, C.

2017-12-01

Hyperparameterization, of statistical models, i.e. automated model scoring and selection, such as evolutionary algorithms, grid searches, and randomized searches, can improve forecast model skill by reducing errors associated with model parameterization, model structure, and statistical properties of training data. Ensemble Learning Models (Elm), and the related Earthio package, provide a flexible interface for automating the selection of parameters and model structure for machine learning models common in climate science and land cover classification, offering convenient tools for loading NetCDF, HDF, Grib, or GeoTiff files, decomposition methods like PCA and manifold learning, and parallel training and prediction with unsupervised and supervised classification, clustering, and regression estimators. Continuum Analytics is using Elm to experiment with statistical soil moisture forecasting based on meteorological forcing data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). There Elm is using the NSGA-2 multiobjective optimization algorithm for optimizing statistical preprocessing of forcing data to improve goodness-of-fit for statistical models (i.e. feature engineering). This presentation will discuss Elm and its components, including dask (distributed task scheduling), xarray (data structures for n-dimensional arrays), and scikit-learn (statistical preprocessing, clustering, classification, regression), and it will show how NSGA-2 is being used for automate selection of soil moisture forecast statistical models for North America.

A fully blanketed early B star LTE model atmosphere using an opacity sampling technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, A.P.; Wright, S.L.

1980-01-01

A fully blanketed LTE model of a stellar atmosphere with Tsub(e) = 21914 K (thetasub(e) = 0.23), log g = 4 is presented. The model includes an explicit representation of the opacity due to the strongest lines, and uses a statistical opacity sampling technique to represent the weaker line opacity. The sampling technique is subjected to several tests and the model is compared with an atmosphere calculated using the line-distribution function method. The limitations of the distribution function method and the particular opacity sampling method used here are discussed in the light of the results obtained. (author)

Summary goodness-of-fit statistics for binary generalized linear models with noncanonical link functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Canary, Jana D; Blizzard, Leigh; Barry, Ronald P; Hosmer, David W; Quinn, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Generalized linear models (GLM) with a canonical logit link function are the primary modeling technique used to relate a binary outcome to predictor variables. However, noncanonical links can offer more flexibility, producing convenient analytical quantities (e.g., probit GLMs in toxicology) and desired measures of effect (e.g., relative risk from log GLMs). Many summary goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics exist for logistic GLM. Their properties make the development of GOF statistics relatively straightforward, but it can be more difficult under noncanonical links. Although GOF tests for logistic GLM with continuous covariates (GLMCC) have been applied to GLMCCs with log links, we know of no GOF tests in the literature specifically developed for GLMCCs that can be applied regardless of link function chosen. We generalize the Tsiatis GOF statistic originally developed for logistic GLMCCs, (TG), so that it can be applied under any link function. Further, we show that the algebraically related Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and Pigeon-Heyse (J(2) ) statistics can be applied directly. In a simulation study, TG, HL, and J(2) were used to evaluate the fit of probit, log-log, complementary log-log, and log models, all calculated with a common grouping method. The TG statistic consistently maintained Type I error rates, while those of HL and J(2) were often lower than expected if terms with little influence were included. Generally, the statistics had similar power to detect an incorrect model. An exception occurred when a log GLMCC was incorrectly fit to data generated from a logistic GLMCC. In this case, TG had more power than HL or J(2) . © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/London School of Economics.

Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

Science.gov (United States)

Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

An integrated user-friendly ArcMAP tool for bivariate statistical modeling in geoscience applications

Science.gov (United States)

Jebur, M. N.; Pradhan, B.; Shafri, H. Z. M.; Yusof, Z.; Tehrany, M. S.

2014-10-01

Modeling and classification difficulties are fundamental issues in natural hazard assessment. A geographic information system (GIS) is a domain that requires users to use various tools to perform different types of spatial modeling. Bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assists in hazard modeling. To perform this analysis, several calculations are required and the user has to transfer data from one format to another. Most researchers perform these calculations manually by using Microsoft Excel or other programs. This process is time consuming and carries a degree of uncertainty. The lack of proper tools to implement BSA in a GIS environment prompted this study. In this paper, a user-friendly tool, BSM (bivariate statistical modeler), for BSA technique is proposed. Three popular BSA techniques such as frequency ratio, weights-of-evidence, and evidential belief function models are applied in the newly proposed ArcMAP tool. This tool is programmed in Python and is created by a simple graphical user interface, which facilitates the improvement of model performance. The proposed tool implements BSA automatically, thus allowing numerous variables to be examined. To validate the capability and accuracy of this program, a pilot test area in Malaysia is selected and all three models are tested by using the proposed program. Area under curve is used to measure the success rate and prediction rate. Results demonstrate that the proposed program executes BSA with reasonable accuracy. The proposed BSA tool can be used in numerous applications, such as natural hazard, mineral potential, hydrological, and other engineering and environmental applications.

An integrated user-friendly ArcMAP tool for bivariate statistical modelling in geoscience applications

Science.gov (United States)

Jebur, M. N.; Pradhan, B.; Shafri, H. Z. M.; Yusoff, Z. M.; Tehrany, M. S.

2015-03-01

Modelling and classification difficulties are fundamental issues in natural hazard assessment. A geographic information system (GIS) is a domain that requires users to use various tools to perform different types of spatial modelling. Bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assists in hazard modelling. To perform this analysis, several calculations are required and the user has to transfer data from one format to another. Most researchers perform these calculations manually by using Microsoft Excel or other programs. This process is time-consuming and carries a degree of uncertainty. The lack of proper tools to implement BSA in a GIS environment prompted this study. In this paper, a user-friendly tool, bivariate statistical modeler (BSM), for BSA technique is proposed. Three popular BSA techniques, such as frequency ratio, weight-of-evidence (WoE), and evidential belief function (EBF) models, are applied in the newly proposed ArcMAP tool. This tool is programmed in Python and created by a simple graphical user interface (GUI), which facilitates the improvement of model performance. The proposed tool implements BSA automatically, thus allowing numerous variables to be examined. To validate the capability and accuracy of this program, a pilot test area in Malaysia is selected and all three models are tested by using the proposed program. Area under curve (AUC) is used to measure the success rate and prediction rate. Results demonstrate that the proposed program executes BSA with reasonable accuracy. The proposed BSA tool can be used in numerous applications, such as natural hazard, mineral potential, hydrological, and other engineering and environmental applications.

Tropical geometry of statistical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

2004-11-16

This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

CERN Document Server

Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

2015-01-01

This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

A primer of multivariate statistics

CERN Document Server

Harris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Drawing upon more than 30 years of experience in working with statistics, Dr. Richard J. Harris has updated A Primer of Multivariate Statistics to provide a model of balance between how-to and why. This classic text covers multivariate techniques with a taste of latent variable approaches. Throughout the book there is a focus on the importance of describing and testing one's interpretations of the emergent variables that are produced by multivariate analysis. This edition retains its conversational writing style while focusing on classical techniques. The book gives the reader a feel for why

Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

1999-01-01

A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

Synchrotron-Based Microspectroscopic Analysis of Molecular and Biopolymer Structures Using Multivariate Techniques and Advanced Multi-Components Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, P.

2008-01-01

More recently, advanced synchrotron radiation-based bioanalytical technique (SRFTIRM) has been applied as a novel non-invasive analysis tool to study molecular, functional group and biopolymer chemistry, nutrient make-up and structural conformation in biomaterials. This novel synchrotron technique, taking advantage of bright synchrotron light (which is million times brighter than sunlight), is capable of exploring the biomaterials at molecular and cellular levels. However, with the synchrotron RFTIRM technique, a large number of molecular spectral data are usually collected. The objective of this article was to illustrate how to use two multivariate statistical techniques: (1) agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis (AHCA) and (2) principal component analysis (PCA) and two advanced multicomponent modeling methods: (1) Gaussian and (2) Lorentzian multi-component peak modeling for molecular spectrum analysis of bio-tissues. The studies indicated that the two multivariate analyses (AHCA, PCA) are able to create molecular spectral corrections by including not just one intensity or frequency point of a molecular spectrum, but by utilizing the entire spectral information. Gaussian and Lorentzian modeling techniques are able to quantify spectral omponent peaks of molecular structure, functional group and biopolymer. By application of these four statistical methods of the multivariate techniques and Gaussian and Lorentzian modeling, inherent molecular structures, functional group and biopolymer onformation between and among biological samples can be quantified, discriminated and classified with great efficiency.

Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

Science.gov (United States)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

2016-11-01

A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

Statistical models for optimizing mineral exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.

1987-01-01

The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)

Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Angeler, David G; Viedma, Olga; Moreno, José M

2009-11-01

Time lag analysis (TLA) is a distance-based approach used to study temporal dynamics of ecological communities by measuring community dissimilarity over increasing time lags. Despite its increased use in recent years, its performance in comparison with other more direct methods (i.e., canonical ordination) has not been evaluated. This study fills this gap using extensive simulations and real data sets from experimental temporary ponds (true zooplankton communities) and landscape studies (landscape categories as pseudo-communities) that differ in community structure and anthropogenic stress history. Modeling time with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices (PCNM) approach, the canonical ordination technique (redundancy analysis; RDA) consistently outperformed the other statistical tests (i.e., TLAs, Mantel test, and RDA based on linear time trends) using all real data. In addition, the RDA-PCNM revealed different patterns of temporal change, and the strength of each individual time pattern, in terms of adjusted variance explained, could be evaluated, It also identified species contributions to these patterns of temporal change. This additional information is not provided by distance-based methods. The simulation study revealed better Type I error properties of the canonical ordination techniques compared with the distance-based approaches when no deterministic component of change was imposed on the communities. The simulation also revealed that strong emphasis on uniform deterministic change and low variability at other temporal scales is needed to result in decreased statistical power of the RDA-PCNM approach relative to the other methods. Based on the statistical performance of and information content provided by RDA-PCNM models, this technique serves ecologists as a powerful tool for modeling temporal change of ecological (pseudo-) communities.

Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasser Roudi

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.

Machine learning and statistical techniques : an application to the prediction of insolvency in Spanish non-life insurance companies

OpenAIRE

Díaz, Zuleyka; Segovia, María Jesús; Fernández, José

2005-01-01

Prediction of insurance companies insolvency has arisen as an important problem in the field of financial research. Most methods applied in the past to tackle this issue are traditional statistical techniques which use financial ratios as explicative variables. However, these variables often do not satisfy statistical assumptions, which complicates the application of the mentioned methods. In this paper, a comparative study of the performance of two non-parametric machine learning techniques ...

An Overview of Short-term Statistical Forecasting Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elias, Russell J.; Montgomery, Douglas C.; Kulahci, Murat

2006-01-01

An overview of statistical forecasting methodology is given, focusing on techniques appropriate to short- and medium-term forecasts. Topics include basic definitions and terminology, smoothing methods, ARIMA models, regression methods, dynamic regression models, and transfer functions. Techniques...... for evaluating and monitoring forecast performance are also summarized....

Statistical Mechanics of Coherent Ising Machine — The Case of Ferromagnetic and Finite-Loading Hopfield Models —

Science.gov (United States)

Aonishi, Toru; Mimura, Kazushi; Utsunomiya, Shoko; Okada, Masato; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa

2017-10-01

The coherent Ising machine (CIM) has attracted attention as one of the most effective Ising computing architectures for solving large scale optimization problems because of its scalability and high-speed computational ability. However, it is difficult to implement the Ising computation in the CIM because the theories and techniques of classical thermodynamic equilibrium Ising spin systems cannot be directly applied to the CIM. This means we have to adapt these theories and techniques to the CIM. Here we focus on a ferromagnetic model and a finite loading Hopfield model, which are canonical models sharing a common mathematical structure with almost all other Ising models. We derive macroscopic equations to capture nonequilibrium phase transitions in these models. The statistical mechanical methods developed here constitute a basis for constructing evaluation methods for other Ising computation models.

Statistical transmutation in doped quantum dimer models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamas, C A; Ralko, A; Cabra, D C; Poilblanc, D; Pujol, P

2012-07-06

We prove a "statistical transmutation" symmetry of doped quantum dimer models on the square, triangular, and kagome lattices: the energy spectrum is invariant under a simultaneous change of statistics (i.e., bosonic into fermionic or vice versa) of the holes and of the signs of all the dimer resonance loops. This exact transformation enables us to define the duality equivalence between doped quantum dimer Hamiltonians and provides the analytic framework to analyze dynamical statistical transmutations. We investigate numerically the doping of the triangular quantum dimer model with special focus on the topological Z(2) dimer liquid. Doping leads to four (instead of two for the square lattice) inequivalent families of Hamiltonians. Competition between phase separation, superfluidity, supersolidity, and fermionic phases is investigated in the four families.

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Fenta Mekonnen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM, and (ii to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range. Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, Tmax and Tmin. The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual Tmax may increase

Textual information access statistical models

CERN Document Server

Gaussier, Eric

2013-01-01

This book presents statistical models that have recently been developed within several research communities to access information contained in text collections. The problems considered are linked to applications aiming at facilitating information access:- information extraction and retrieval;- text classification and clustering;- opinion mining;- comprehension aids (automatic summarization, machine translation, visualization).In order to give the reader as complete a description as possible, the focus is placed on the probability models used in the applications

OPLS statistical model versus linear regression to assess sonographic predictors of stroke prognosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vajargah, Kianoush Fathi; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Mehdizadeh-Esfanjani, Robab; Savadi-Oskouei, Daryoush; Farhoudi, Mehdi

2012-01-01

The objective of the present study was to assess the comparable applicability of orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS) statistical model vs traditional linear regression in order to investigate the role of trans cranial doppler (TCD) sonography in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis. The study was conducted on 116 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a specialty neurology ward. The Unified Neurological Stroke Scale was used once for clinical evaluation on the first week of admission and again six months later. All data was primarily analyzed using simple linear regression and later considered for multivariate analysis using PLS/OPLS models through the SIMCA P+12 statistical software package. The linear regression analysis results used for the identification of TCD predictors of stroke prognosis were confirmed through the OPLS modeling technique. Moreover, in comparison to linear regression, the OPLS model appeared to have higher sensitivity in detecting the predictors of ischemic stroke prognosis and detected several more predictors. Applying the OPLS model made it possible to use both single TCD measures/indicators and arbitrarily dichotomized measures of TCD single vessel involvement as well as the overall TCD result. In conclusion, the authors recommend PLS/OPLS methods as complementary rather than alternative to the available classical regression models such as linear regression.

An introduction to statistical computing a simulation-based approach

CERN Document Server

Voss, Jochen

2014-01-01

A comprehensive introduction to sampling-based methods in statistical computing The use of computers in mathematics and statistics has opened up a wide range of techniques for studying otherwise intractable problems.  Sampling-based simulation techniques are now an invaluable tool for exploring statistical models.  This book gives a comprehensive introduction to the exciting area of sampling-based methods. An Introduction to Statistical Computing introduces the classical topics of random number generation and Monte Carlo methods.  It also includes some advanced met

Model for neural signaling leap statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos

2011-01-01

We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5 0 C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5 0 C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

Model for neural signaling leap statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos

2011-03-01

We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

Isotopic safeguards statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, C.L.; Stewart, K.B.

1978-06-01

The methods and results of our statistical analysis of isotopic data using isotopic safeguards techniques are illustrated using example data from the Yankee Rowe reactor. The statistical methods used in this analysis are the paired comparison and the regression analyses. A paired comparison results when a sample from a batch is analyzed by two different laboratories. Paired comparison techniques can be used with regression analysis to detect and identify outlier batches. The second analysis tool, linear regression, involves comparing various regression approaches. These approaches use two basic types of models: the intercept model (y = α + βx) and the initial point model [y - y 0 = β(x - x 0 )]. The intercept model fits strictly the exposure or burnup values of isotopic functions, while the initial point model utilizes the exposure values plus the initial or fabricator's data values in the regression analysis. Two fitting methods are applied to each of these models. These methods are: (1) the usual least squares fitting approach where x is measured without error, and (2) Deming's approach which uses the variance estimates obtained from the paired comparison results and considers x and y are both measured with error. The Yankee Rowe data were first measured by Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) and remeasured by Nuclear Audit and Testing Company (NATCO). The ratio of Pu/U versus 235 D (in which 235 D is the amount of depleted 235 U expressed in weight percent) using actual numbers is the isotopic function illustrated. Statistical results using the Yankee Rowe data indicates the attractiveness of Deming's regression model over the usual approach by simple comparison of the given regression variances with the random variance from the paired comparison results

Leak detection and localization in a pipeline system by application of statistical analysis techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukuda, Toshio; Mitsuoka, Toyokazu.

1985-01-01

The detection of leak in piping system is an important diagnostic technique for facilities to prevent accidents and to take maintenance measures, since the occurrence of leak lowers productivity and causes environmental destruction. As the first step, it is necessary to detect the occurrence of leak without delay, and as the second step, if the place of leak occurrence in piping system can be presumed, accident countermeasures become easy. The detection of leak by pressure is usually used for detecting large leak. But the method depending on pressure is simple and advantageous, therefore the extension of the detecting technique by pressure gradient method to the detection of smaller scale leak using statistical analysis techniques was examined for a pipeline in steady operation in this study. Since the flow in a pipe irregularly varies during pumping, statistical means is required for the detection of small leak by pressure. The index for detecting leak proposed in this paper is the difference of the pressure gradient at the both ends of a pipeline. The experimental results on water and air in nylon tubes are reported. (Kako, I.)

Statistical Language Modeling for Historical Documents using Weighted Finite-State Transducers and Long Short-Term Memory

OpenAIRE

Al Azawi, Mayce

2015-01-01

The goal of this work is to develop statistical natural language models and processing techniques based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), especially the recently introduced Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM). Due to their adapting and predicting abilities, these methods are more robust, and easier to train than traditional methods, i.e., words list and rule-based models. They improve the output of recognition systems and make them more accessible to users for browsing and reading...

Equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice models

CERN Document Server

Lavis, David A

2015-01-01

Most interesting and difficult problems in equilibrium statistical mechanics concern models which exhibit phase transitions. For graduate students and more experienced researchers this book provides an invaluable reference source of approximate and exact solutions for a comprehensive range of such models. Part I contains background material on classical thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, together with a classification and survey of lattice models. The geometry of phase transitions is described and scaling theory is used to introduce critical exponents and scaling laws. An introduction is given to finite-size scaling, conformal invariance and Schramm—Loewner evolution. Part II contains accounts of classical mean-field methods. The parallels between Landau expansions and catastrophe theory are discussed and Ginzburg—Landau theory is introduced. The extension of mean-field theory to higher-orders is explored using the Kikuchi—Hijmans—De Boer hierarchy of approximations. In Part III the use of alge...

Computational and Statistical Models: A Comparison for Policy Modeling of Childhood Obesity

Science.gov (United States)

Mabry, Patricia L.; Hammond, Ross; Ip, Edward Hak-Sing; Huang, Terry T.-K.

As systems science methodologies have begun to emerge as a set of innovative approaches to address complex problems in behavioral, social science, and public health research, some apparent conflicts with traditional statistical methodologies for public health have arisen. Computational modeling is an approach set in context that integrates diverse sources of data to test the plausibility of working hypotheses and to elicit novel ones. Statistical models are reductionist approaches geared towards proving the null hypothesis. While these two approaches may seem contrary to each other, we propose that they are in fact complementary and can be used jointly to advance solutions to complex problems. Outputs from statistical models can be fed into computational models, and outputs from computational models can lead to further empirical data collection and statistical models. Together, this presents an iterative process that refines the models and contributes to a greater understanding of the problem and its potential solutions. The purpose of this panel is to foster communication and understanding between statistical and computational modelers. Our goal is to shed light on the differences between the approaches and convey what kinds of research inquiries each one is best for addressing and how they can serve complementary (and synergistic) roles in the research process, to mutual benefit. For each approach the panel will cover the relevant "assumptions" and how the differences in what is assumed can foster misunderstandings. The interpretations of the results from each approach will be compared and contrasted and the limitations for each approach will be delineated. We will use illustrative examples from CompMod, the Comparative Modeling Network for Childhood Obesity Policy. The panel will also incorporate interactive discussions with the audience on the issues raised here.

TRAN-STAT: statistics for environmental studies, Number 22. Comparison of soil-sampling techniques for plutonium at Rocky Flats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, R.O.; Bernhardt, D.E.; Hahn, P.B.

1983-01-01

A summary of a field soil sampling study conducted around the Rocky Flats Colorado plant in May 1977 is preseted. Several different soil sampling techniques that had been used in the area were applied at four different sites. One objective was to comparethe average 239 - 240 Pu concentration values obtained by the various soil sampling techniques used. There was also interest in determining whether there are differences in the reproducibility of the various techniques and how the techniques compared with the proposed EPA technique of sampling to 1 cm depth. Statistically significant differences in average concentrations between the techniques were found. The differences could be largely related to the differences in sampling depth-the primary physical variable between the techniques. The reproducibility of the techniques was evaluated by comparing coefficients of variation. Differences between coefficients of variation were not statistically significant. Average (median) coefficients ranged from 21 to 42 percent for the five sampling techniques. A laboratory study indicated that various sample treatment and particle sizing techniques could increase the concentration of plutonium in the less than 10 micrometer size fraction by up to a factor of about 4 compared to the 2 mm size fraction

Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

2017-01-01

Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

Model for neural signaling leap statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos, E-mail: oria@otica.ufpb.br [Laboratorio de Fisica Atomica e Lasers Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal da ParaIba Caixa Postal 5086 58051-900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)

2011-03-01

We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5{sup 0}C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5{sup 0}C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

Analysis and Evaluation of Statistical Models for Integrated Circuits Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sáenz-Noval J.J.

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Statistical models for integrated circuits (IC allow us to estimate the percentage of acceptable devices in the batch before fabrication. Actually, Pelgrom is the statistical model most accepted in the industry; however it was derived from a micrometer technology, which does not guarantee reliability in nanometric manufacturing processes. This work considers three of the most relevant statistical models in the industry and evaluates their limitations and advantages in analog design, so that the designer has a better criterion to make a choice. Moreover, it shows how several statistical models can be used for each one of the stages and design purposes.

The issue of statistical power for overall model fit in evaluating structural equation models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard HERMIDA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Statistical power is an important concept for psychological research. However, examining the power of a structural equation model (SEM is rare in practice. This article provides an accessible review of the concept of statistical power for the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA index of overall model fit in structural equation modeling. By way of example, we examine the current state of power in the literature by reviewing studies in top Industrial-Organizational (I/O Psychology journals using SEMs. Results indicate that in many studies, power is very low, which implies acceptance of invalid models. Additionally, we examined methodological situations which may have an influence on statistical power of SEMs. Results showed that power varies significantly as a function of model type and whether or not the model is the main model for the study. Finally, results indicated that power is significantly related to model fit statistics used in evaluating SEMs. The results from this quantitative review imply that researchers should be more vigilant with respect to power in structural equation modeling. We therefore conclude by offering methodological best practices to increase confidence in the interpretation of structural equation modeling results with respect to statistical power issues.

Statistical mechanics of learning orthogonal signals for general covariance models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoyle, David C

2010-01-01

Statistical mechanics techniques have proved to be useful tools in quantifying the accuracy with which signal vectors are extracted from experimental data. However, analysis has previously been limited to specific model forms for the population covariance C, which may be inappropriate for real world data sets. In this paper we obtain new statistical mechanical results for a general population covariance matrix C. For data sets consisting of p sample points in R N we use the replica method to study the accuracy of orthogonal signal vectors estimated from the sample data. In the asymptotic limit of N,p→∞ at fixed α = p/N, we derive analytical results for the signal direction learning curves. In the asymptotic limit the learning curves follow a single universal form, each displaying a retarded learning transition. An explicit formula for the location of the retarded learning transition is obtained and we find marked variation in the location of the retarded learning transition dependent on the distribution of population covariance eigenvalues. The results of the replica analysis are confirmed against simulation

Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Blume

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

Improved model for statistical alignment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)

2001-01-01

The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.

[Comments on] Statistical techniques for the development and application of SYVAC. (Document by Stephen Howe Ltd.)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beale, E.M.L.

1983-05-01

The Department of the Environment has embarked on a programme to develop computer models to help with assessment of sites suitable for the disposal of nuclear wastes. The first priority is to produce a system, based on the System Variability Analysis Code (SYVAC) obtained from Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., suitable for assessing radioactive waste disposal in land repositories containing non heat producing wastes from typical UK sources. The requirements of the SYVAC system development were so diverse that each portion of the development was contracted to a different company. Scicon are responsible for software coordination, system integration and user interface. Their present report contains comments on 'Statistical techniques for the development and application of SYVAC'. (U.K.)

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

2003-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

2011-01-01

We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...

Linear regression models and k-means clustering for statistical analysis of fNIRS data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonomini, Viola; Zucchelli, Lucia; Re, Rebecca; Ieva, Francesca; Spinelli, Lorenzo; Contini, Davide; Paganoni, Anna; Torricelli, Alessandro

2015-02-01

We propose a new algorithm, based on a linear regression model, to statistically estimate the hemodynamic activations in fNIRS data sets. The main concern guiding the algorithm development was the minimization of assumptions and approximations made on the data set for the application of statistical tests. Further, we propose a K-means method to cluster fNIRS data (i.e. channels) as activated or not activated. The methods were validated both on simulated and in vivo fNIRS data. A time domain (TD) fNIRS technique was preferred because of its high performances in discriminating cortical activation and superficial physiological changes. However, the proposed method is also applicable to continuous wave or frequency domain fNIRS data sets.

Multivariate methods and forecasting with IBM SPSS statistics

CERN Document Server

Aljandali, Abdulkader

2017-01-01

This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Dis...

An R2 statistic for fixed effects in the linear mixed model.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Lloyd J; Muller, Keith E; Wolfinger, Russell D; Qaqish, Bahjat F; Schabenberger, Oliver

2008-12-20

Statisticians most often use the linear mixed model to analyze Gaussian longitudinal data. The value and familiarity of the R(2) statistic in the linear univariate model naturally creates great interest in extending it to the linear mixed model. We define and describe how to compute a model R(2) statistic for the linear mixed model by using only a single model. The proposed R(2) statistic measures multivariate association between the repeated outcomes and the fixed effects in the linear mixed model. The R(2) statistic arises as a 1-1 function of an appropriate F statistic for testing all fixed effects (except typically the intercept) in a full model. The statistic compares the full model with a null model with all fixed effects deleted (except typically the intercept) while retaining exactly the same covariance structure. Furthermore, the R(2) statistic leads immediately to a natural definition of a partial R(2) statistic. A mixed model in which ethnicity gives a very small p-value as a longitudinal predictor of blood pressure (BP) compellingly illustrates the value of the statistic. In sharp contrast to the extreme p-value, a very small R(2) , a measure of statistical and scientific importance, indicates that ethnicity has an almost negligible association with the repeated BP outcomes for the study.

Data on electrical energy conservation using high efficiency motors for the confidence bounds using statistical techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba; Memon, Abdul Jabbar; Hussain, Manzoor

2016-09-01

In this article, we describe details of the data used in the research paper "Confidence bounds for energy conservation in electric motors: An economical solution using statistical techniques" [1]. The data presented in this paper is intended to show benefits of high efficiency electric motors over the standard efficiency motors of similar rating in the industrial sector of Pakistan. We explain how the data was collected and then processed by means of formulas to show cost effectiveness of energy efficient motors in terms of three important parameters: annual energy saving, cost saving and payback periods. This data can be further used to construct confidence bounds for the parameters using statistical techniques as described in [1].

Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

KAUST Repository

Kalenderski, Stoitchko

2011-03-17

We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

Adaptive Maneuvering Frequency Method of Current Statistical Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wei Sun; Yongjian Yang

2017-01-01

Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.

Speech emotion recognition based on statistical pitch model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Zhiping; ZHAO Li; ZOU Cairong

2006-01-01

A modified Parzen-window method, which keep high resolution in low frequencies and keep smoothness in high frequencies, is proposed to obtain statistical model. Then, a gender classification method utilizing the statistical model is proposed, which have a 98% accuracy of gender classification while long sentence is dealt with. By separation the male voice and female voice, the mean and standard deviation of speech training samples with different emotion are used to create the corresponding emotion models. Then the Bhattacharyya distance between the test sample and statistical models of pitch, are utilized for emotion recognition in speech.The normalization of pitch for the male voice and female voice are also considered, in order to illustrate them into a uniform space. Finally, the speech emotion recognition experiment based on K Nearest Neighbor shows that, the correct rate of 81% is achieved, where it is only 73.85%if the traditional parameters are utilized.

Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Varin, Cristiano; Cattelan, Manuela; Firth, David

2016-01-01

Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UK's research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation 'export scores' within the discipline of statistics.

A Comparative of business process modelling techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Tangkawarow, I. R. H. T.; Waworuntu, J.

2016-04-01

In this era, there is a lot of business process modeling techniques. This article is the research about differences of business process modeling techniques. For each technique will explain about the definition and the structure. This paper presents a comparative analysis of some popular business process modelling techniques. The comparative framework is based on 2 criteria: notation and how it works when implemented in Somerleyton Animal Park. Each technique will end with the advantages and disadvantages. The final conclusion will give recommend of business process modeling techniques that easy to use and serve the basis for evaluating further modelling techniques.

Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

2012-09-01

To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

2012-09-01

Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

Shell model in large spaces and statistical spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kota, V.K.B.

1996-01-01

For many nuclear structure problems of current interest it is essential to deal with shell model in large spaces. For this, three different approaches are now in use and two of them are: (i) the conventional shell model diagonalization approach but taking into account new advances in computer technology; (ii) the shell model Monte Carlo method. A brief overview of these two methods is given. Large space shell model studies raise fundamental questions regarding the information content of the shell model spectrum of complex nuclei. This led to the third approach- the statistical spectroscopy methods. The principles of statistical spectroscopy have their basis in nuclear quantum chaos and they are described (which are substantiated by large scale shell model calculations) in some detail. (author)

Advances in statistical models for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio

2015-01-01

This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.

Multiparametric statistics

CERN Document Server

Serdobolskii, Vadim Ivanovich

2007-01-01

This monograph presents mathematical theory of statistical models described by the essentially large number of unknown parameters, comparable with sample size but can also be much larger. In this meaning, the proposed theory can be called "essentially multiparametric". It is developed on the basis of the Kolmogorov asymptotic approach in which sample size increases along with the number of unknown parameters.This theory opens a way for solution of central problems of multivariate statistics, which up until now have not been solved. Traditional statistical methods based on the idea of an infinite sampling often break down in the solution of real problems, and, dependent on data, can be inefficient, unstable and even not applicable. In this situation, practical statisticians are forced to use various heuristic methods in the hope the will find a satisfactory solution.Mathematical theory developed in this book presents a regular technique for implementing new, more efficient versions of statistical procedures. ...

Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

Science.gov (United States)

Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

2013-01-01

Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

A hybrid SEA/modal technique for modeling structural-acoustic interior noise in rotorcraft.

Science.gov (United States)

Jayachandran, V; Bonilha, M W

2003-03-01

This paper describes a hybrid technique that combines Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions for structural vibration with acoustic modal summation techniques to predict interior noise levels in rotorcraft. The method was applied for predicting the sound field inside a mock-up of the interior panel system of the Sikorsky S-92 helicopter. The vibration amplitudes of the frame and panel systems were predicted using a detailed SEA model and these were used as inputs to the model of the interior acoustic space. The spatial distribution of the vibration field on individual panels, and their coupling to the acoustic space were modeled using stochastic techniques. Leakage and nonresonant transmission components were accounted for using space-averaged values obtained from a SEA model of the complete structural-acoustic system. Since the cabin geometry was quite simple, the modeling of the interior acoustic space was performed using a standard modal summation technique. Sound pressure levels predicted by this approach at specific microphone locations were compared with measured data. Agreement within 3 dB in one-third octave bands above 40 Hz was observed. A large discrepancy in the one-third octave band in which the first acoustic mode is resonant (31.5 Hz) was observed. Reasons for such a discrepancy are discussed in the paper. The developed technique provides a method for modeling helicopter cabin interior noise in the frequency mid-range where neither FEA nor SEA is individually effective or accurate.

Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Stapleton, James H

2007-01-01

This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

Fluctuations and correlations in statistical models of hadron production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorenstein, M. I.

2012-01-01

An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution are introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

Statistical metrology - measurement and modeling of variation for advanced process development and design rule generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boning, Duane S.; Chung, James E.

1998-01-01

Advanced process technology will require more detailed understanding and tighter control of variation in devices and interconnects. The purpose of statistical metrology is to provide methods to measure and characterize variation, to model systematic and random components of that variation, and to understand the impact of variation on both yield and performance of advanced circuits. Of particular concern are spatial or pattern-dependencies within individual chips; such systematic variation within the chip can have a much larger impact on performance than wafer-level random variation. Statistical metrology methods will play an important role in the creation of design rules for advanced technologies. For example, a key issue in multilayer interconnect is the uniformity of interlevel dielectric (ILD) thickness within the chip. For the case of ILD thickness, we describe phases of statistical metrology development and application to understanding and modeling thickness variation arising from chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP). These phases include screening experiments including design of test structures and test masks to gather electrical or optical data, techniques for statistical decomposition and analysis of the data, and approaches to calibrating empirical and physical variation models. These models can be integrated with circuit CAD tools to evaluate different process integration or design rule strategies. One focus for the generation of interconnect design rules are guidelines for the use of 'dummy fill' or 'metal fill' to improve the uniformity of underlying metal density and thus improve the uniformity of oxide thickness within the die. Trade-offs that can be evaluated via statistical metrology include the improvements to uniformity possible versus the effect of increased capacitance due to additional metal

Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

CERN Document Server

Pan, Jian-Xin

2002-01-01

Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

Analytical system availability techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwers, J.J.H.; Verbeek, P.H.J.; Thomson, W.R.

1987-01-01

Analytical techniques are presented to assess the probability distributions and related statistical parameters of loss of production from equipment networks subject to random failures and repairs. The techniques are based on a theoretical model for system availability, which was further developed

Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models

CERN Document Server

Durstewitz, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering.  Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...

Studies on coal flotation in flotation column using statistical technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M.S. Jena; S.K. Biswal; K.K. Rao; P.S.R. Reddy [Institute of Minerals & Materials Technology (IMMT), Orissa (India)

2009-07-01

Flotation of Indian high ash coking coal fines to obtain clean coal has been reported earlier by many authors. Here an attempt has been made to systematically analyse factors influencing the flotation process using statistical design of experiments technique. Studies carried out in a 100 mm diameter column using factorial design to establish weightage of factors such as feed rate, air rate and collector dosage indicated that all three parameters have equal influence on the flotation process. Subsequently RSM-CCD design was used to obtain best result and it is observed that 94% combustibles can be recovered with 82.5% weight recovery at 21.4% ash from a feed containing 31.3% ash content.

Application of data assimilation technique for flow field simulation for Kaiga site using TAPM model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrivastava, R.; Oza, R.B.; Puranik, V.D.; Hegde, M.N.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2008-01-01

The data assimilation techniques are becoming popular nowadays to get realistic flow field simulation for the site under consideration. The present paper describes data assimilation technique for flow field simulation for Kaiga site using the air pollution model (TAPM) developed by CSIRO, Australia. In this, the TAPM model was run for Kaiga site for a period of one month (Nov. 2004) using the analysed meteorological data supplied with the model for Central Asian (CAS) region and the model solutions were nudged with the observed wind speed and wind direction data available for the site. The model was run with 4 nested grids with grid spacing varying from 30km, 10km, 3km and 1km respectively. The models generated results with and without nudging are statistically compared with the observations. (author)

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

Science.gov (United States)

Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2012-09-10

A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions

Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rujan, P.

1987-01-01

The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components

Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications

CERN Document Server

Sedlmeier, Peter

1999-01-01

This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.

An Analysis of Research Methods and Statistical Techniques Used by Doctoral Dissertation at the Education Sciences in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Karadag, Engin

2010-01-01

To assess research methods and analysis of statistical techniques employed by educational researchers, this study surveyed unpublished doctoral dissertation from 2003 to 2007. Frequently used research methods consisted of experimental research; a survey; a correlational study; and a case study. Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, factor…

Solar radiation data - statistical analysis and simulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mustacchi, C; Cena, V; Rocchi, M; Haghigat, F

1984-01-01

The activities consisted in collecting meteorological data on magnetic tape for ten european locations (with latitudes ranging from 42/sup 0/ to 56/sup 0/ N), analysing the multi-year sequences, developing mathematical models to generate synthetic sequences having the same statistical properties of the original data sets, and producing one or more Short Reference Years (SRY's) for each location. The meteorological parameters examinated were (for all the locations) global + diffuse radiation on horizontal surface, dry bulb temperature, sunshine duration. For some of the locations additional parameters were available, namely, global, beam and diffuse radiation on surfaces other than horizontal, wet bulb temperature, wind velocity, cloud type, cloud cover. The statistical properties investigated were mean, variance, autocorrelation, crosscorrelation with selected parameters, probability density function. For all the meteorological parameters, various mathematical models were built: linear regression, stochastic models of the AR and the DAR type. In each case, the model with the best statistical behaviour was selected for the production of a SRY for the relevant parameter/location.

Statistical techniques applied to aerial radiometric surveys (STAARS): series introduction and the principal-components-analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pirkle, F.L.

1981-04-01

STAARS is a new series which is being published to disseminate information concerning statistical procedures for interpreting aerial radiometric data. The application of a particular data interpretation technique to geologic understanding for delineating regions favorable to uranium deposition is the primary concern of STAARS. Statements concerning the utility of a technique on aerial reconnaissance data as well as detailed aerial survey data will be included

Intuitive introductory statistics

CERN Document Server

Wolfe, Douglas A

2017-01-01

This textbook is designed to give an engaging introduction to statistics and the art of data analysis. The unique scope includes, but also goes beyond, classical methodology associated with the normal distribution. What if the normal model is not valid for a particular data set? This cutting-edge approach provides the alternatives. It is an introduction to the world and possibilities of statistics that uses exercises, computer analyses, and simulations throughout the core lessons. These elementary statistical methods are intuitive. Counting and ranking features prominently in the text. Nonparametric methods, for instance, are often based on counts and ranks and are very easy to integrate into an introductory course. The ease of computation with advanced calculators and statistical software, both of which factor into this text, allows important techniques to be introduced earlier in the study of statistics. This book's novel scope also includes measuring symmetry with Walsh averages, finding a nonp...

Fault diagnosis and comparing risk for the steel coil manufacturing process using statistical models for binary data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debón, A.; Carlos Garcia-Díaz, J.

2012-01-01

Advanced statistical models can help industry to design more economical and rational investment plans. Fault detection and diagnosis is an important problem in continuous hot dip galvanizing. Increasingly stringent quality requirements in the automotive industry also require ongoing efforts in process control to make processes more robust. Robust methods for estimating the quality of galvanized steel coils are an important tool for the comprehensive monitoring of the performance of the manufacturing process. This study applies different statistical regression models: generalized linear models, generalized additive models and classification trees to estimate the quality of galvanized steel coils on the basis of short time histories. The data, consisting of 48 galvanized steel coils, was divided into sets of conforming and nonconforming coils. Five variables were selected for monitoring the process: steel strip velocity and four bath temperatures. The present paper reports a comparative evaluation of statistical models for binary data using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. A ROC curve is a graph or a technique for visualizing, organizing and selecting classifiers based on their performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine their use in research to obtain the best model to predict defective steel coil probability. In relation to the work of other authors who only propose goodness of fit statistics, we should highlight one distinctive feature of the methodology presented here, which is the possibility of comparing the different models with ROC graphs which are based on model classification performance. Finally, the results are validated by bootstrap procedures.

Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayanan, R.S.

1991-10-01

We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

A statistical model for mapping morphological shape

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Jiahan

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Living things come in all shapes and sizes, from bacteria, plants, and animals to humans. Knowledge about the genetic mechanisms for biological shape has far-reaching implications for a range spectrum of scientific disciplines including anthropology, agriculture, developmental biology, evolution and biomedicine. Results We derived a statistical model for mapping specific genes or quantitative trait loci (QTLs that control morphological shape. The model was formulated within the mixture framework, in which different types of shape are thought to result from genotypic discrepancies at a QTL. The EM algorithm was implemented to estimate QTL genotype-specific shapes based on a shape correspondence analysis. Computer simulation was used to investigate the statistical property of the model. Conclusion By identifying specific QTLs for morphological shape, the model developed will help to ask, disseminate and address many major integrative biological and genetic questions and challenges in the genetic control of biological shape and function.

Using Patient Demographics and Statistical Modeling to Predict Knee Tibia Component Sizing in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Anna N; Neher, Robert E; Bell, Tyler; Grimm, James

2018-06-01

Preoperative planning is important to achieve successful implantation in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, traditional TKA templating techniques are not accurate enough to predict the component size to a very close range. With the goal of developing a general predictive statistical model using patient demographic information, ordinal logistic regression was applied to build a proportional odds model to predict the tibia component size. The study retrospectively collected the data of 1992 primary Persona Knee System TKA procedures. Of them, 199 procedures were randomly selected as testing data and the rest of the data were randomly partitioned between model training data and model evaluation data with a ratio of 7:3. Different models were trained and evaluated on the training and validation data sets after data exploration. The final model had patient gender, age, weight, and height as independent variables and predicted the tibia size within 1 size difference 96% of the time on the validation data, 94% of the time on the testing data, and 92% on a prospective cadaver data set. The study results indicated the statistical model built by ordinal logistic regression can increase the accuracy of tibia sizing information for Persona Knee preoperative templating. This research shows statistical modeling may be used with radiographs to dramatically enhance the templating accuracy, efficiency, and quality. In general, this methodology can be applied to other TKA products when the data are applicable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical model selection with “Big Data”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgen A. Doornik

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.

Statistical models and NMR analysis of polymer microstructure

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical models can be used in conjunction with NMR spectroscopy to study polymer microstructure and polymerization mechanisms. Thus, Bernoullian, Markovian, and enantiomorphic-site models are well known. Many additional models have been formulated over the years for additional situations. Typica...

Statistical shape model-based reconstruction of a scaled, patient-specific surface model of the pelvis from a single standard AP x-ray radiograph

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zheng Guoyan [Institute for Surgical Technology and Biomechanics, University of Bern, Stauffacherstrasse 78, CH-3014 Bern (Switzerland)

2010-04-15

Purpose: The aim of this article is to investigate the feasibility of using a statistical shape model (SSM)-based reconstruction technique to derive a scaled, patient-specific surface model of the pelvis from a single standard anteroposterior (AP) x-ray radiograph and the feasibility of estimating the scale of the reconstructed surface model by performing a surface-based 3D/3D matching. Methods: Data sets of 14 pelvises (one plastic bone, 12 cadavers, and one patient) were used to validate the single-image based reconstruction technique. This reconstruction technique is based on a hybrid 2D/3D deformable registration process combining a landmark-to-ray registration with a SSM-based 2D/3D reconstruction. The landmark-to-ray registration was used to find an initial scale and an initial rigid transformation between the x-ray image and the SSM. The estimated scale and rigid transformation were used to initialize the SSM-based 2D/3D reconstruction. The optimal reconstruction was then achieved in three stages by iteratively matching the projections of the apparent contours extracted from a 3D model derived from the SSM to the image contours extracted from the x-ray radiograph: Iterative affine registration, statistical instantiation, and iterative regularized shape deformation. The image contours are first detected by using a semiautomatic segmentation tool based on the Livewire algorithm and then approximated by a set of sparse dominant points that are adaptively sampled from the detected contours. The unknown scales of the reconstructed models were estimated by performing a surface-based 3D/3D matching between the reconstructed models and the associated ground truth models that were derived from a CT-based reconstruction method. Such a matching also allowed for computing the errors between the reconstructed models and the associated ground truth models. Results: The technique could reconstruct the surface models of all 14 pelvises directly from the landmark

Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Deasy, Joseph O; Lindsay, Patricia E; Hope, Andrew J

2009-01-01

Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model

Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyojin Lee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We developed the frost prediction models in spring in Korea using logistic regression and decision tree techniques. Hit Rate (HR, Probability of Detection (POD, and False Alarm Rate (FAR from both models were calculated and compared. Threshold values for the logistic regression models were selected to maximize HR and POD and minimize FAR for each station, and the split for the decision tree models was stopped when change in entropy was relatively small. Average HR values were 0.92 and 0.91 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, average POD values were 0.78 and 0.80 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, and average FAR values were 0.22 and 0.28 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. The average numbers of selected explanatory variables were 5.7 and 2.3 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively. Fewer explanatory variables can be more appropriate for operational activities to provide a timely warning for the prevention of the frost damages to agricultural crops. We concluded that the decision tree model can be more useful for the timely warning system. It is recommended that the models should be improved to reflect local topological features.

Automatic generation of 3D statistical shape models with optimal landmark distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Heimann, T; Wolf, I; Meinzer, H-P

2007-01-01

To point out the problem of non-uniform landmark placement in statistical shape modeling, to present an improved method for generating landmarks in the 3D case and to propose an unbiased evaluation metric to determine model quality. Our approach minimizes a cost function based on the minimum description length (MDL) of the shape model to optimize landmark correspondences over the training set. In addition to the standard technique, we employ an extended remeshing method to change the landmark distribution without losing correspondences, thus ensuring a uniform distribution over all training samples. To break the dependency of the established evaluation measures generalization and specificity from the landmark distribution, we change the internal metric from landmark distance to volumetric overlap. Redistributing landmarks to an equally spaced distribution during the model construction phase improves the quality of the resulting models significantly if the shapes feature prominent bulges or other complex geometry. The distribution of landmarks on the training shapes is -- beyond the correspondence issue -- a crucial point in model construction.

A statistical model for deriving probability distributions of contamination for accidental releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ApSimon, H.M.; Davison, A.C.

1986-01-01

Results generated from a detailed long-range transport model, MESOS, simulating dispersal of a large number of hypothetical releases of radionuclides in a variety of meteorological situations over Western Europe have been used to derive a simpler statistical model, MESOSTAT. This model may be used to generate probability distributions of different levels of contamination at a receptor point 100-1000 km or so from the source (for example, across a frontier in another country) without considering individual release and dispersal scenarios. The model is embodied in a series of equations involving parameters which are determined from such factors as distance between source and receptor, nuclide decay and deposition characteristics, release duration, and geostrophic windrose at the source. Suitable geostrophic windrose data have been derived for source locations covering Western Europe. Special attention has been paid to the relatively improbable extreme values of contamination at the top end of the distribution. The MESOSTAT model and its development are described, with illustrations of its use and comparison with the original more detailed modelling techniques. (author)

Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications

CERN Document Server

1988-01-01

In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel J. Isaak; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Seth J. Wenger; Jeffrey A. Falke; Christian E. Torgersen; Colin Sowder; E. Ashley Steel; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Aaron S. Ruesch; Nicholas Som; Pascal. Monestiez

2014-01-01

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for...

Process simulation and statistical approaches for validating waste form qualification models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuhn, W.L.; Toland, M.R.; Pulsipher, B.A.

1989-05-01

This report describes recent progress toward one of the principal objectives of the Nuclear Waste Treatment Program (NWTP) at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL): to establish relationships between vitrification process control and glass product quality. during testing of a vitrification system, it is important to show that departures affecting the product quality can be sufficiently detected through process measurements to prevent an unacceptable canister from being produced. Meeting this goal is a practical definition of a successful sampling, data analysis, and process control strategy. A simulation model has been developed and preliminarily tested by applying it to approximate operation of the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) vitrification system at West Valley, New York. Multivariate statistical techniques have been identified and described that can be applied to analyze large sets of process measurements. Information on components, tanks, and time is then combined to create a single statistic through which all of the information can be used at once to determine whether the process has shifted away from a normal condition

A Review of Statistical Techniques for 2x2 and RxC Categorical Data Tables In SPSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cengiz BAL

2009-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, a review of statistical techniques for RxC categorical data tables is explained in detail. The emphasis is given to the association of techniques and their corresponding data considerations. Some suggestions to how to handle specific categorical data tables in SPSS and common mistakes in the interpretation of the SPSS outputs are shown.

Data Analysis Techniques for Physical Scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Pruneau, Claude A.

2017-10-01

Preface; How to read this book; 1. The scientific method; Part I. Foundation in Probability and Statistics: 2. Probability; 3. Probability models; 4. Classical inference I: estimators; 5. Classical inference II: optimization; 6. Classical inference III: confidence intervals and statistical tests; 7. Bayesian inference; Part II. Measurement Techniques: 8. Basic measurements; 9. Event reconstruction; 10. Correlation functions; 11. The multiple facets of correlation functions; 12. Data correction methods; Part III. Simulation Techniques: 13. Monte Carlo methods; 14. Collision and detector modeling; List of references; Index.

Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

2002-01-01

Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

TRAN-STAT: statistics for environmental studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, R.O.

1984-09-01

This issue of TRAN-STAT discusses statistical methods for assessing the uncertainty in predictions of pollutant transport models, particularly for radionuclides. Emphasis is placed on radionuclide transport models but the statistical assessment techniques also apply in general to other types of pollutants. The report begins with an outline of why an assessment of prediction uncertainties is important. This is followed by an introduction to several methods currently used in these assessments. This in turn is followed by more detailed discussion of the methods, including examples. 43 references, 2 figures

Visualization of the variability of 3D statistical shape models by animation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamecker, Hans; Seebass, Martin; Lange, Thomas; Hege, Hans-Christian; Deuflhard, Peter

2004-01-01

Models of the 3D shape of anatomical objects and the knowledge about their statistical variability are of great benefit in many computer assisted medical applications like images analysis, therapy or surgery planning. Statistical model of shapes have successfully been applied to automate the task of image segmentation. The generation of 3D statistical shape models requires the identification of corresponding points on two shapes. This remains a difficult problem, especially for shapes of complicated topology. In order to interpret and validate variations encoded in a statistical shape model, visual inspection is of great importance. This work describes the generation and interpretation of statistical shape models of the liver and the pelvic bone.

Statistical Pattern Recognition

CERN Document Server

Webb, Andrew R

2011-01-01

Statistical pattern recognition relates to the use of statistical techniques for analysing data measurements in order to extract information and make justified decisions.  It is a very active area of study and research, which has seen many advances in recent years. Applications such as data mining, web searching, multimedia data retrieval, face recognition, and cursive handwriting recognition, all require robust and efficient pattern recognition techniques. This third edition provides an introduction to statistical pattern theory and techniques, with material drawn from a wide range of fields,

Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eberhardt, L L

1976-01-01

In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

Do we need statistics when we have linguistics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cantos Gómez Pascual

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Statistics is known to be a quantitative approach to research. However, most of the research done in the fields of language and linguistics is of a different kind, namely qualitative. Succinctly, qualitative analysis differs from quantitative analysis is that in the former no attempt is made to assign frequencies, percentages and the like, to the linguistic features found or identified in the data. In quantitative research, linguistic features are classified and counted, and even more complex statistical models are constructed in order to explain these observed facts. In qualitative research, however, we use the data only for identifying and describing features of language usage and for providing real occurrences/examples of particular phenomena. In this paper, we shall try to show how quantitative methods and statistical techniques can supplement qualitative analyses of language. We shall attempt to present some mathematical and statistical properties of natural languages, and introduce some of the quantitative methods which are of the most value in working empirically with texts and corpora, illustrating the various issues with numerous examples and moving from the most basic descriptive techniques (frequency counts and percentages to decision-taking techniques (chi-square and z-score and to more sophisticated statistical language models (Type-Token/Lemma-Token/Lemma-Type formulae, cluster analysis and discriminant function analysis.

Statistical methods for ranking data

CERN Document Server

Alvo, Mayer

2014-01-01

This book introduces advanced undergraduate, graduate students and practitioners to statistical methods for ranking data. An important aspect of nonparametric statistics is oriented towards the use of ranking data. Rank correlation is defined through the notion of distance functions and the notion of compatibility is introduced to deal with incomplete data. Ranking data are also modeled using a variety of modern tools such as CART, MCMC, EM algorithm and factor analysis. This book deals with statistical methods used for analyzing such data and provides a novel and unifying approach for hypotheses testing. The techniques described in the book are illustrated with examples and the statistical software is provided on the authors’ website.

The use of statistical models in heavy-ion reactions studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stokstad, R.G.

1984-01-01

This chapter reviews the use of statistical models to describe nuclear level densities and the decay of equilibrated nuclei. The statistical models of nuclear structure and nuclear reactions presented here have wide application in the analysis of heavy-ion reaction data. Applications are illustrated with examples of gamma-ray decay, the emission of light particles and heavier clusters of nucleons, and fission. In addition to the compound nucleus, the treatment of equilibrated fragments formed in binary reactions is discussed. The statistical model is shown to be an important tool for the identification of products from nonequilibrium decay

Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

CERN Document Server

Fahrmeir, Ludwig

1994-01-01

This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

CERN Document Server

West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

2006-01-01

Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo

Statistics of extremes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

2006-01-01

Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrion Christine

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

Active Learning with Statistical Models.

Science.gov (United States)

1995-01-01

Active Learning with Statistical Models ASC-9217041, NSF CDA-9309300 6. AUTHOR(S) David A. Cohn, Zoubin Ghahramani, and Michael I. Jordan 7. PERFORMING...TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Al, MIT, Artificial Intelligence, active learning , queries, locally weighted 6 regression, LOESS, mixtures of gaussians...COMPUTATIONAL LEARNING DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES A.I. Memo No. 1522 January 9. 1995 C.B.C.L. Paper No. 110 Active Learning with

Statistical Techniques Used in Three Applied Linguistics Journals: "Language Learning,""Applied Linguistics" and "TESOL Quarterly," 1980-1986: Implications for Readers and Researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Teleni, Vicki; Baldauf, Richard B., Jr.

A study investigated the statistical techniques used by applied linguists and reported in three journals, "Language Learning,""Applied Linguistics," and "TESOL Quarterly," between 1980 and 1986. It was found that 47% of the published articles used statistical procedures. In these articles, 63% of the techniques used could be called basic, 28%…

Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ming; Long, Qi

2016-09-01

Prediction models for disease risk and prognosis play an important role in biomedical research, and evaluating their predictive accuracy in the presence of censored data is of substantial interest. The standard concordance (c) statistic has been extended to provide a summary measure of predictive accuracy for survival models. Motivated by a prostate cancer study, we address several issues associated with evaluating survival prediction models based on c-statistic with a focus on estimators using the technique of inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Compared to the existing work, we provide complete results on the asymptotic properties of the IPCW estimators under the assumption of coarsening at random (CAR), and propose a sensitivity analysis under the mechanism of noncoarsening at random (NCAR). In addition, we extend the IPCW approach as well as the sensitivity analysis to high-dimensional settings. The predictive accuracy of prediction models for cancer recurrence after prostatectomy is assessed by applying the proposed approaches. We find that the estimated predictive accuracy for the models in consideration is sensitive to NCAR assumption, and thus identify the best predictive model. Finally, we further evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in both settings of low-dimensional and high-dimensional data under CAR and NCAR through simulations. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Understanding search trees via statistical physics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

ary search tree model (where stands for the number of branches of the search tree), an important problem for data storage in computer science, using a variety of statistical physics techniques that allow us to obtain exact asymptotic results.

Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

1989-01-01

Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

Parametric analysis of the statistical model of the stick-slip process

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Roberta; Sampaio, Rubens

2017-06-01

In this paper it is performed a parametric analysis of the statistical model of the response of a dry-friction oscillator. The oscillator is a spring-mass system which moves over a base with a rough surface. Due to this roughness, the mass is subject to a dry-frictional force modeled as a Coulomb friction. The system is stochastically excited by an imposed bang-bang base motion. The base velocity is modeled by a Poisson process for which a probabilistic model is fully specified. The excitation induces in the system stochastic stick-slip oscillations. The system response is composed by a random sequence alternating stick and slip-modes. With realizations of the system, a statistical model is constructed for this sequence. In this statistical model, the variables of interest of the sequence are modeled as random variables, as for example, the number of time intervals in which stick or slip occur, the instants at which they begin, and their duration. Samples of the system response are computed by integration of the dynamic equation of the system using independent samples of the base motion. Statistics and histograms of the random variables which characterize the stick-slip process are estimated for the generated samples. The objective of the paper is to analyze how these estimated statistics and histograms vary with the system parameters, i.e., to make a parametric analysis of the statistical model of the stick-slip process.

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

Dynamical and statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature in a Mediterranean area

KAUST Repository

Pizzigalli, Claudia

2012-03-28

In this paper we present and discuss a comparison between statistical and regional climate modeling techniques for downscaling GCM prediction . The comparison is carried out over the “Capitanata” region, an area of agricultural interest in south-eastern Italy, for current (1961-1990) and future (2071–2100) climate. The statistical model is based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), associated with a data pre-filtering obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), whereas the Regional Climate Model REGCM3 was used for dynamical downscaling. Downscaling techniques were applied to estimate rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and average number of consecutive wet and dry days. Both methods have comparable skills in estimating stations data. They show good results for spring, the most important season for agriculture. Both statistical and dynamical models reproduce the statistical properties of precipitation well, the crucial variable for the growth of crops.

Study on Semi-Parametric Statistical Model of Safety Monitoring of Cracks in Concrete Dams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chongshi Gu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cracks are one of the hidden dangers in concrete dams. The study on safety monitoring models of concrete dam cracks has always been difficult. Using the parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of cracks in concrete dams, with the help of the semi-parametric statistical theory, and considering the abnormal behaviors of these cracks, the semi-parametric statistical model of safety monitoring of concrete dam cracks is established to overcome the limitation of the parametric model in expressing the objective model. Previous projects show that the semi-parametric statistical model has a stronger fitting effect and has a better explanation for cracks in concrete dams than the parametric statistical model. However, when used for forecast, the forecast capability of the semi-parametric statistical model is equivalent to that of the parametric statistical model. The modeling of the semi-parametric statistical model is simple, has a reasonable principle, and has a strong practicality, with a good application prospect in the actual project.

Detection of Cutting Tool Wear using Statistical Analysis and Regression Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ghani, Jaharah A.; Rizal, Muhammad; Nuawi, Mohd Zaki; Haron, Che Hassan Che; Ramli, Rizauddin

2010-10-01

This study presents a new method for detecting the cutting tool wear based on the measured cutting force signals. A statistical-based method called Integrated Kurtosis-based Algorithm for Z-Filter technique, called I-kaz was used for developing a regression model and 3D graphic presentation of I-kaz 3D coefficient during machining process. The machining tests were carried out using a CNC turning machine Colchester Master Tornado T4 in dry cutting condition. A Kistler 9255B dynamometer was used to measure the cutting force signals, which were transmitted, analyzed, and displayed in the DasyLab software. Various force signals from machining operation were analyzed, and each has its own I-kaz 3D coefficient. This coefficient was examined and its relationship with flank wear lands (VB) was determined. A regression model was developed due to this relationship, and results of the regression model shows that the I-kaz 3D coefficient value decreases as tool wear increases. The result then is used for real time tool wear monitoring.

Statistical models for competing risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sather, H.N.

1976-08-01

Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

GIS-based bivariate statistical techniques for groundwater potential analysis (an example of Iran)

Science.gov (United States)

Haghizadeh, Ali; Moghaddam, Davoud Davoudi; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

2017-12-01

Groundwater potential analysis prepares better comprehension of hydrological settings of different regions. This study shows the potency of two GIS-based data driven bivariate techniques namely statistical index (SI) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) to analyze groundwater potential in Broujerd region of Iran. The research was done using 11 groundwater conditioning factors and 496 spring positions. Based on the ground water potential maps (GPMs) of SI and DST methods, 24.22% and 23.74% of the study area is covered by poor zone of groundwater potential, and 43.93% and 36.3% of Broujerd region is covered by good and very good potential zones, respectively. The validation of outcomes displayed that area under the curve (AUC) of SI and DST techniques are 81.23% and 79.41%, respectively, which shows SI method has slightly a better performance than the DST technique. Therefore, SI and DST methods are advantageous to analyze groundwater capacity and scrutinize the complicated relation between groundwater occurrence and groundwater conditioning factors, which permits investigation of both systemic and stochastic uncertainty. Finally, it can be realized that these techniques are very beneficial for groundwater potential analyzing and can be practical for water-resource management experts.

Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

CERN Document Server

Mantovan, Pietro

2010-01-01

The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

Connection between perturbation theory, projection-operator techniques, and statistical linearization for nonlinear systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budgor, A.B.; West, B.J.

1978-01-01

We employ the equivalence between Zwanzig's projection-operator formalism and perturbation theory to demonstrate that the approximate-solution technique of statistical linearization for nonlinear stochastic differential equations corresponds to the lowest-order β truncation in both the consolidated perturbation expansions and in the ''mass operator'' of a renormalized Green's function equation. Other consolidated equations can be obtained by selectively modifying this mass operator. We particularize the results of this paper to the Duffing anharmonic oscillator equation

A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

JU Yang; YANG YongMing; SONG ZhenDuo; XU WenJing

2008-01-01

The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were In-vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordl-nares of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob-ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis-tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex-amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inoaculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2008-01-01

The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were in- vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordi- nates of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob- ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis- tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex- amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inosculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

Integrated approach to model decomposed flow hydrograph using artificial neural network and conceptual techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Ashu; Srinivasulu, Sanaga

2006-02-01

This paper presents the findings of a study aimed at decomposing a flow hydrograph into different segments based on physical concepts in a catchment, and modelling different segments using different technique viz. conceptual and artificial neural networks (ANNs). An integrated modelling framework is proposed capable of modelling infiltration, base flow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and certain segments of the decomposed flow hydrograph using conceptual techniques and the complex, non-linear, and dynamic rainfall-runoff process using ANN technique. Specifically, five different multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and two self-organizing map (SOM) models have been developed. The rainfall and streamflow data derived from the Kentucky River catchment were employed to test the proposed methodology and develop all the models. The performance of all the models was evaluated using seven different standard statistical measures. The results obtained in this study indicate that (a) the rainfall-runoff relationship in a large catchment consists of at least three or four different mappings corresponding to different dynamics of the underlying physical processes, (b) an integrated approach that models the different segments of the decomposed flow hydrograph using different techniques is better than a single ANN in modelling the complex, dynamic, non-linear, and fragmented rainfall runoff process, (c) a simple model based on the concept of flow recession is better than an ANN to model the falling limb of a flow hydrograph, and (d) decomposing a flow hydrograph into the different segments corresponding to the different dynamics based on the physical concepts is better than using the soft decomposition employed using SOM.

(ajst) statistical mechanics model for orientational

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Science and Engineering Series Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 94 - 101. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODEL FOR ORIENTATIONAL. MOTION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL RIGID ROTATOR. Malo, J.O. ... there is no translational motion and that they are well separated so .... constant and I is the moment of inertia of a linear rotator. Thus, the ...

Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics

CERN Document Server

Ouassou, Idir; Rachdi, Mustapha

2015-01-01

This volume, which highlights recent advances in statistical methodology and applications, is divided into two main parts. The first part presents theoretical results on estimation techniques in functional statistics, while the second examines three key areas of application: estimation problems in queuing theory, an application in signal processing, and the copula approach to epidemiologic modelling. The book’s peer-reviewed contributions are based on papers originally presented at the Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics held in December 2013.

Industrial statistics with Minitab

CERN Document Server

Cintas, Pere Grima; Llabres, Xavier Tort-Martorell

2012-01-01

Industrial Statistics with MINITAB demonstrates the use of MINITAB as a tool for performing statistical analysis in an industrial context. This book covers introductory industrial statistics, exploring the most commonly used techniques alongside those that serve to give an overview of more complex issues. A plethora of examples in MINITAB are featured along with case studies for each of the statistical techniques presented. Industrial Statistics with MINITAB: Provides comprehensive coverage of user-friendly practical guidance to the essential statistical methods applied in industry.Explores

A Review of Modeling Bioelectrochemical Systems: Engineering and Statistical Aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuai Luo

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Bioelectrochemical systems (BES are promising technologies to convert organic compounds in wastewater to electrical energy through a series of complex physical-chemical, biological and electrochemical processes. Representative BES such as microbial fuel cells (MFCs have been studied and advanced for energy recovery. Substantial experimental and modeling efforts have been made for investigating the processes involved in electricity generation toward the improvement of the BES performance for practical applications. However, there are many parameters that will potentially affect these processes, thereby making the optimization of system performance hard to be achieved. Mathematical models, including engineering models and statistical models, are powerful tools to help understand the interactions among the parameters in BES and perform optimization of BES configuration/operation. This review paper aims to introduce and discuss the recent developments of BES modeling from engineering and statistical aspects, including analysis on the model structure, description of application cases and sensitivity analysis of various parameters. It is expected to serves as a compass for integrating the engineering and statistical modeling strategies to improve model accuracy for BES development.

SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO₂ SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #3 STATISTICAL LEARNING BASED MODELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mishra, Srikanta; Schuetter, Jared

2014-11-01

We compare two approaches for building a statistical proxy model (metamodel) for CO₂ geologic sequestration from the results of full-physics compositional simulations. The first approach involves a classical Box-Behnken or Augmented Pairs experimental design with a quadratic polynomial response surface. The second approach used a space-filling maxmin Latin Hypercube sampling or maximum entropy design with the choice of five different meta-modeling techniques: quadratic polynomial, kriging with constant and quadratic trend terms, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and additivity and variance stabilization (AVAS). Simulations results for CO₂ injection into a reservoir-caprock system with 9 design variables (and 97 samples) were used to generate the data for developing the proxy models. The fitted models were validated with using an independent data set and a cross-validation approach for three different performance metrics: total storage efficiency, CO₂ plume radius and average reservoir pressure. The Box-Behnken–quadratic polynomial metamodel performed the best, followed closely by the maximin LHS–kriging metamodel.

Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

2012-01-15

Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

Statistical core design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oelkers, E.; Heller, A.S.; Farnsworth, D.A.; Kearfott, K.J.

1978-01-01

The report describes the statistical analysis of DNBR thermal-hydraulic margin of a 3800 MWt, 205-FA core under design overpower conditions. The analysis used LYNX-generated data at predetermined values of the input variables whose uncertainties were to be statistically combined. LYNX data were used to construct an efficient response surface model in the region of interest; the statistical analysis was accomplished through the evaluation of core reliability; utilizing propagation of the uncertainty distributions of the inputs. The response surface model was implemented in both the analytical error propagation and Monte Carlo Techniques. The basic structural units relating to the acceptance criteria are fuel pins. Therefore, the statistical population of pins with minimum DNBR values smaller than specified values is determined. The specified values are designated relative to the most probable and maximum design DNBR values on the power limiting pin used in present design analysis, so that gains over the present design criteria could be assessed for specified probabilistic acceptance criteria. The results are equivalent to gains ranging from 1.2 to 4.8 percent of rated power dependent on the acceptance criterion. The corresponding acceptance criteria range from 95 percent confidence that no pin will be in DNB to 99.9 percent of the pins, which are expected to avoid DNB

Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

Statistical mechanics of sensing and communications: Insights and techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murayama, T; Davis, P

2008-01-01

In this article we review a basic model for analysis of large sensor networks from the point of view of collective estimation under bandwidth constraints. We compare different sensing aggregation levels as alternative 'strategies' for collective estimation: moderate aggregation from a moderate number of sensors for which communication bandwidth is enough that data encoding can be reversible, and large scale aggregation from very many sensors - in which case communication bandwidth constraints require the use of nonreversible encoding. We show the non-trivial trade-off between sensing quality, which can be increased by increasing the number of sensors, and communication quality under bandwidth constraints, which decreases if the number of sensors is too large. From a practical standpoint, we verify that such a trade-off exists in constructively defined communications schemes. We introduce a probabilistic encoding scheme and define rate distortion models that are suitable for analysis of the large network limit. Our description shows that the methods and ideas from statistical physics can play an important role in formulating effective models for such schemes

Statistical assessment of the learning curves of health technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsay, C R; Grant, A M; Wallace, S A; Garthwaite, P H; Monk, A F; Russell, I T

2001-01-01

was a case series of consecutive laparoscopic cholecystectomy procedures performed by ten surgeons; the third was randomised trial data derived from the laparoscopic procedure arm of a multicentre trial of groin hernia repair, supplemented by data from non-randomised operations performed during the trial. RESULTS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: Of 4571 abstracts identified, 272 (6%) were later included in the study after review of the full paper. Some 51% of studies assessed a surgical minimal access technique and 95% were case series. The statistical method used most often (60%) was splitting the data into consecutive parts (such as halves or thirds), with only 14% attempting a more formal statistical analysis. The reporting of the studies was poor, with 31% giving no details of data collection methods. RESULTS - NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH: Of 9431 abstracts assessed, 115 (1%) were deemed appropriate for further investigation and, of these, 18 were included in the study. All of the methods for complex data sets were identified in the non-clinical literature. These were discriminant analysis, two-stage estimation of learning rates, generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, latent curve models, time series models and stochastic parameter models. In addition, eight new shapes of learning curves were identified. RESULTS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: No one particular shape of learning curve performed significantly better than another. The performance of 'operation time' as a proxy for learning differed between the three procedures. Multilevel modelling using the laparoscopic cholecystectomy data demonstrated and measured surgeon-specific and confounding effects. The inclusion of non-randomised cases, despite the possible limitations of the method, enhanced the interpretation of learning effects. CONCLUSIONS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: The statistical methods used for assessing learning effects

Acceleration transforms and statistical kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LuValle, M.J.; Welsher, T.L.; Svoboda, K.

1988-01-01

For a restricted class of problems a mathematical model of microscopic degradation processes, statistical kinetics, is developed and linked through acceleration transforms to the information which can be obtained from a system in which the only observable sign of degradation is sudden and catastrophic failure. The acceleration transforms were developed in accelerated life testing applications as a tool for extrapolating from the observable results of an accelerated life test to the dynamics of the underlying degradation processes. A particular concern of a physicist attempting to interpreted the results of an analysis based on acceleration transforms is determining the physical species involved in the degradation process. These species may be (a) relatively abundant or (b) relatively rare. The main results of this paper are a theorem showing that for an important subclass of statistical kinetic models, acceleration transforms cannot be used to distinguish between cases a and b, and an example showing that in some cases falling outside the restrictions of the theorem, cases a and b can be distinguished by their acceleration transforms

Statistical models describing the energy signature of buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Thavlov, Anders

2010-01-01

Approximately one third of the primary energy production in Denmark is used for heating in buildings. Therefore efforts to accurately describe and improve energy performance of the building mass are very important. For this purpose statistical models describing the energy signature of a building, i...... or varying energy prices. The paper will give an overview of statistical methods and applied models based on experiments carried out in FlexHouse, which is an experimental building in SYSLAB, Risø DTU. The models are of different complexity and can provide estimates of physical quantities such as UA......-values, time constants of the building, and other parameters related to the heat dynamics. A method for selecting the most appropriate model for a given building is outlined and finally a perspective of the applications is given. Aknowledgements to the Danish Energy Saving Trust and the Interreg IV ``Vind i...

Statistical modeling of tear strength for one step fixation process of reactive printing and easy care finishing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asim, F.; Mahmood, M.

2017-01-01

Statistical modeling imparts significant role in predicting the impact of potential factors affecting the one step fixation process of reactive printing and easy care finishing. Investigation of significant factors on tear strength of cotton fabric for single step fixation of reactive printing and easy care finishing has been carried out in this research work using experimental design technique. The potential design factors were; concentration of reactive dye, concentration of crease resistant, fixation method and fixation temperature. The experiments were designed using DoE (Design of Experiment) and analyzed through software Design Expert. The detailed analysis of significant factors and interactions including ANOVA (Analysis of Variance), residuals, model accuracy and statistical model for tear strength has been presented. The interaction and contour plots of vital factors has been examined. It has been found from the statistical analysis that each factor has an interaction with other factor. Most of the investigated factors showed curvature effect on other factor. After critical examination of significant plots, quadratic model of tear strength with significant terms and their interaction at alpha = 0.05 has been developed. The calculated correlation coefficient, R2 of the developed model is 0.9056. The high values of correlation coefficient inferred that developed equation of tear strength will precisely predict the tear strength over the range of values. (author)

STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea Feraru

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.

Introductory statistics for engineering experimentation

CERN Document Server

Nelson, Peter R; Coffin, Marie

2003-01-01

The Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET) introduced a criterion starting with their 1992-1993 site visits that "Students must demonstrate a knowledge of the application of statistics to engineering problems." Since most engineering curricula are filled with requirements in their own discipline, they generally do not have time for a traditional two semesters of probability and statistics. Attempts to condense that material into a single semester often results in so much time being spent on probability that the statistics useful for designing and analyzing engineering/scientific experiments is never covered. In developing a one-semester course whose purpose was to introduce engineering/scientific students to the most useful statistical methods, this book was created to satisfy those needs. - Provides the statistical design and analysis of engineering experiments & problems - Presents a student-friendly approach through providing statistical models for advanced learning techniques - Cove...

Statistical mechanics of directed models of polymers in the square lattice

CERN Document Server

Rensburg, J V

2003-01-01

Directed square lattice models of polymers and vesicles have received considerable attention in the recent mathematical and physical sciences literature. These are idealized geometric directed lattice models introduced to study phase behaviour in polymers, and include Dyck paths, partially directed paths, directed trees and directed vesicles models. Directed models are closely related to models studied in the combinatorics literature (and are often exactly solvable). They are also simplified versions of a number of statistical mechanics models, including the self-avoiding walk, lattice animals and lattice vesicles. The exchange of approaches and ideas between statistical mechanics and combinatorics have considerably advanced the description and understanding of directed lattice models, and this will be explored in this review. The combinatorial nature of directed lattice path models makes a study using generating function approaches most natural. In contrast, the statistical mechanics approach would introduce...

The epistemology of mathematical and statistical modeling: a quiet methodological revolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Joseph Lee

2010-01-01

A quiet methodological revolution, a modeling revolution, has occurred over the past several decades, almost without discussion. In contrast, the 20th century ended with contentious argument over the utility of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The NHST controversy may have been at least partially irrelevant, because in certain ways the modeling revolution obviated the NHST argument. I begin with a history of NHST and modeling and their relation to one another. Next, I define and illustrate principles involved in developing and evaluating mathematical models. Following, I discuss the difference between using statistical procedures within a rule-based framework and building mathematical models from a scientific epistemology. Only the former is treated carefully in most psychology graduate training. The pedagogical implications of this imbalance and the revised pedagogy required to account for the modeling revolution are described. To conclude, I discuss how attention to modeling implies shifting statistical practice in certain progressive ways. The epistemological basis of statistics has moved away from being a set of procedures, applied mechanistically, and moved toward building and evaluating statistical and scientific models. Copyrigiht 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

New techniques for subdivision modelling

OpenAIRE

BEETS, Koen

2006-01-01

In this dissertation, several tools and techniques for modelling with subdivision surfaces are presented. Based on the huge amount of theoretical knowledge about subdivision surfaces, we present techniques to facilitate practical 3D modelling which make subdivision surfaces even more useful. Subdivision surfaces have reclaimed attention several years ago after their application in full-featured 3D animation movies, such as Toy Story. Since then and due to their attractive properties an ever i...

Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

Doing statistical mediation and moderation

CERN Document Server

Jose, Paul E

2013-01-01

Written in a friendly, conversational style, this book offers a hands-on approach to statistical mediation and moderation for both beginning researchers and those familiar with modeling. Starting with a gentle review of regression-based analysis, Paul Jose covers basic mediation and moderation techniques before moving on to advanced topics in multilevel modeling, structural equation modeling, and hybrid combinations, such as moderated mediation. User-friendly features include numerous graphs and carefully worked-through examples; ""Helpful Suggestions"" about procedures and pitfalls; ""Knowled

Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-09-29

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

A clinical perspective of accelerated statistical reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutton, B.F.; Hudson, H.M.; Beekman, F.J.

1997-01-01

Although the potential benefits of maximum likelihood reconstruction have been recognised for many years, the technique has only recently found widespread popularity in clinical practice. Factors which have contributed to the wider acceptance include improved models for the emission process, better understanding of the properties of the algorithm and, not least, the practicality of application with the development of acceleration schemes and the improved speed of computers. The objective in this article is to present a framework for applying maximum likelihood reconstruction for a wide range of clinically based problems. The article draws particularly on the experience of the three authors in applying an acceleration scheme involving use of ordered subsets to a range of applications. The potential advantages of statistical reconstruction techniques include: (a) the ability to better model the emission and detection process, in order to make the reconstruction converge to a quantitative image, (b) the inclusion of a statistical noise model which results in better noise characteristics, and (c) the possibility to incorporate prior knowledge about the distribution being imaged. The great flexibility in adapting the reconstruction for a specific model results in these techniques having wide applicability to problems in clinical nuclear medicine. (orig.). With 8 figs., 1 tab

Statistical geological discrete fracture network model. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul [Golder Associates Inc (United States); Simeonov, Assen [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2007-11-15

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is performing site characterization at two different locations, Forsmark and Laxemar, in order to locate a site for a final geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel. The program is built upon the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDMs) at specific timed data freezes. Each SDM is formed from discipline-specific reports from across the scientific spectrum. This report describes the methods, analyses, and conclusions of the geological modeling team with respect to a geological and statistical model of fractures and minor deformation zones (henceforth referred to as the geological DFN), version 2.2, at the Forsmark site. The geological DFN builds upon the work of other geological modelers, including the deformation zone (DZ), rock domain (RD), and fracture domain (FD) models. The geological DFN is a statistical model for stochastically simulating rock fractures and minor deformation zones as a scale of less than 1,000 m (the lower cut-off of the DZ models). The geological DFN is valid within four specific fracture domains inside the local model region, and encompassing the candidate volume at Forsmark: FFM01, FFM02, FFM03, and FFM06. The models are build using data from detailed surface outcrop maps and the cored borehole record at Forsmark. The conceptual model for the Forsmark 2.2 geological revolves around the concept of orientation sets; for each fracture domain, other model parameters such as size and intensity are tied to the orientation sets. Two classes of orientation sets were described; Global sets, which are encountered everywhere in the model region, and Local sets, which represent highly localized stress environments. Orientation sets were described in terms of their general cardinal direction (NE, NW, etc). Two alternatives are presented for fracture size modeling: - the tectonic continuum approach (TCM, TCMF) described by coupled size-intensity scaling following power law distributions

Statistical geological discrete fracture network model. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul; Simeonov, Assen; Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan

2007-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is performing site characterization at two different locations, Forsmark and Laxemar, in order to locate a site for a final geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel. The program is built upon the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDMs) at specific timed data freezes. Each SDM is formed from discipline-specific reports from across the scientific spectrum. This report describes the methods, analyses, and conclusions of the geological modeling team with respect to a geological and statistical model of fractures and minor deformation zones (henceforth referred to as the geological DFN), version 2.2, at the Forsmark site. The geological DFN builds upon the work of other geological modelers, including the deformation zone (DZ), rock domain (RD), and fracture domain (FD) models. The geological DFN is a statistical model for stochastically simulating rock fractures and minor deformation zones as a scale of less than 1,000 m (the lower cut-off of the DZ models). The geological DFN is valid within four specific fracture domains inside the local model region, and encompassing the candidate volume at Forsmark: FFM01, FFM02, FFM03, and FFM06. The models are build using data from detailed surface outcrop maps and the cored borehole record at Forsmark. The conceptual model for the Forsmark 2.2 geological revolves around the concept of orientation sets; for each fracture domain, other model parameters such as size and intensity are tied to the orientation sets. Two classes of orientation sets were described; Global sets, which are encountered everywhere in the model region, and Local sets, which represent highly localized stress environments. Orientation sets were described in terms of their general cardinal direction (NE, NW, etc). Two alternatives are presented for fracture size modeling: - the tectonic continuum approach (TCM, TCMF) described by coupled size-intensity scaling following power law distributions

Post-fire debris flow prediction in Western United States: Advancements based on a nonparametric statistical technique

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Destro, E.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Borga, M., Sr.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Fire disasters affect modern societies at global scale inducing significant economic losses and human casualties. In addition to their direct impacts they have various adverse effects on hydrologic and geomorphologic processes of a region due to the tremendous alteration of the landscape characteristics (vegetation, soil properties etc). As a consequence, wildfires often initiate a cascade of hazards such as flash floods and debris flows that usually follow the occurrence of a wildfire thus magnifying the overall impact in a region. Post-fire debris flows (PFDF) is one such type of hazards frequently occurring in Western United States where wildfires are a common natural disaster. Prediction of PDFD is therefore of high importance in this region and over the last years a number of efforts from United States Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service (NWS) have been focused on the development of early warning systems that will help mitigate PFDF risk. This work proposes a prediction framework that is based on a nonparametric statistical technique (random forests) that allows predicting the occurrence of PFDF at regional scale with a higher degree of accuracy than the commonly used approaches that are based on power-law thresholds and logistic regression procedures. The work presented is based on a recently released database from USGS that reports a total of 1500 storms that triggered and did not trigger PFDF in a number of fire affected catchments in Western United States. The database includes information on storm characteristics (duration, accumulation, max intensity etc) and other auxiliary information of land surface properties (soil erodibility index, local slope etc). Results show that the proposed model is able to achieve a satisfactory prediction accuracy (threat score > 0.6) superior of previously published prediction frameworks highlighting the potential of nonparametric statistical techniques for development of PFDF prediction systems.

Introduction to high-dimensional statistics

CERN Document Server

Giraud, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ever-greater computing technologies have given rise to an exponentially growing volume of data. Today massive data sets (with potentially thousands of variables) play an important role in almost every branch of modern human activity, including networks, finance, and genetics. However, analyzing such data has presented a challenge for statisticians and data analysts and has required the development of new statistical methods capable of separating the signal from the noise.Introduction to High-Dimensional Statistics is a concise guide to state-of-the-art models, techniques, and approaches for ha

Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, D.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with

Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

2008-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

Statistical and particle physics: Common problems and techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowler, K.C.; Mc Kane, A.J.

1984-01-01

These proceedings contain statistical mechanical studies in condensed matter physics; interfacial problems in statistical physics; string theory; general monte carlo methods and their application to Lattice gauge theories; topological excitations in field theory; phase transformation kinetics; and studies of chaotic systems

Application of multivariate statistical techniques for differentiation of ripe banana flour based on the composition of elements.

Science.gov (United States)

Alkarkhi, Abbas F M; Ramli, Saifullah Bin; Easa, Azhar Mat

2009-01-01

Major (sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium) and minor elements (iron, copper, zinc, manganese) and one heavy metal (lead) of Cavendish banana flour and Dream banana flour were determined, and data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques of factor analysis and discriminant analysis. Factor analysis yielded four factors explaining more than 81% of the total variance: the first factor explained 28.73%, comprising magnesium, sodium, and iron; the second factor explained 21.47%, comprising only manganese and copper; the third factor explained 15.66%, comprising zinc and lead; while the fourth factor explained 15.50%, comprising potassium. Discriminant analysis showed that magnesium and sodium exhibited a strong contribution in discriminating the two types of banana flour, affording 100% correct assignation. This study presents the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of complex mineral content data from banana flour of different varieties.

Statistical zonation technique and its application to the San Andres reservoir in the Poza Rica area, Vera Cruz, Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campa, M F; Romero, M R

1969-01-01

A statistical zonation technique developed by J.D. Testerman is presented referring to its application to the San Andres reservoir in the Poza Rica area in Veracruz, Mex. The method is based on a statistical technique which permits grouping of similar values of certain parameter, i.e., porosity, for individual wells within a field. The resulting groups or zones are used in a correlation analysis to deduce whether there is continuity of porosity in any direction. In the San Andres reservoir, there is a continuity of the porous media on NE-SW direction. This is an important fact for the waterflooding project being carried on.

Statistics and error considerations at the application of SSND T-technique in radon measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonsson, G.

1993-01-01

Plastic films are used for the detection of alpha particles from disintegrating radon and radon daughter nuclei. After etching there are tracks (cones) or holes in the film as a result of the exposure. The step from a counted number of tracks/holes per surface unit of the film to a reliable value of the radon and radon daughter level is surrounded by statistical considerations of different nature. Some of them are the number of counted tracks, the length of the time of exposure, the season of the time of exposure, the etching technique and the method of counting the tracks or holes. The number of background tracks of an unexposed film increases the error of the measured radon level. Some of the mentioned effects of statistical nature will be discussed in the report. (Author)

Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, Janine Camille [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pebay, Philippe Pierre [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Rojas, Maurice [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2014-07-01

This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.

Automated Techniques for the Qualitative Analysis of Ecological Models: Continuous Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lynn van Coller

1997-06-01

Full Text Available The mathematics required for a detailed analysis of the behavior of a model can be formidable. In this paper, I demonstrate how various computer packages can aid qualitative analyses by implementing techniques from dynamical systems theory. Because computer software is used to obtain the results, the techniques can be used by nonmathematicians as well as mathematicians. In-depth analyses of complicated models that were previously very difficult to study can now be done. Because the paper is intended as an introduction to applying the techniques to ecological models, I have included an appendix describing some of the ideas and terminology. A second appendix shows how the techniques can be applied to a fairly simple predator-prey model and establishes the reliability of the computer software. The main body of the paper discusses a ratio-dependent model. The new techniques highlight some limitations of isocline analyses in this three-dimensional setting and show that the model is structurally unstable. Another appendix describes a larger model of a sheep-pasture-hyrax-lynx system. Dynamical systems techniques are compared with a traditional sensitivity analysis and are found to give more information. As a result, an incomplete relationship in the model is highlighted. I also discuss the resilience of these models to both parameter and population perturbations.

Survey of semantic modeling techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, C.L.

1975-07-01

The analysis of the semantics of programing languages was attempted with numerous modeling techniques. By providing a brief survey of these techniques together with an analysis of their applicability for answering semantic issues, this report attempts to illuminate the state-of-the-art in this area. The intent is to be illustrative rather than thorough in the coverage of semantic models. A bibliography is included for the reader who is interested in pursuing this area of research in more detail.

Analyzing sickness absence with statistical models for survival data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Karl Bang; Andersen, Per Kragh; Smith-Hansen, Lars

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Sickness absence is the outcome in many epidemiologic studies and is often based on summary measures such as the number of sickness absences per year. In this study the use of modern statistical methods was examined by making better use of the available information. Since sickness...... absence data deal with events occurring over time, the use of statistical models for survival data has been reviewed, and the use of frailty models has been proposed for the analysis of such data. METHODS: Three methods for analyzing data on sickness absences were compared using a simulation study...... involving the following: (i) Poisson regression using a single outcome variable (number of sickness absences), (ii) analysis of time to first event using the Cox proportional hazards model, and (iii) frailty models, which are random effects proportional hazards models. Data from a study of the relation...

Physics-based statistical model and simulation method of RF propagation in urban environments

Science.gov (United States)

Pao, Hsueh-Yuan; Dvorak, Steven L.

2010-09-14

A physics-based statistical model and simulation/modeling method and system of electromagnetic wave propagation (wireless communication) in urban environments. In particular, the model is a computationally efficient close-formed parametric model of RF propagation in an urban environment which is extracted from a physics-based statistical wireless channel simulation method and system. The simulation divides the complex urban environment into a network of interconnected urban canyon waveguides which can be analyzed individually; calculates spectral coefficients of modal fields in the waveguides excited by the propagation using a database of statistical impedance boundary conditions which incorporates the complexity of building walls in the propagation model; determines statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields; and determines a parametric propagation model based on the statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields from which predictions of communications capability may be made.

Vibration impact acoustic emission technique for identification and analysis of defects in carbon steel tubes: Part A Statistical analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halim, Zakiah Abd [Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (Malaysia); Jamaludin, Nordin; Junaidi, Syarif [Faculty of Engineering and Built, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi (Malaysia); Yahya, Syed Yusainee Syed [Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam (Malaysia)

2015-04-15

Current steel tubes inspection techniques are invasive, and the interpretation and evaluation of inspection results are manually done by skilled personnel. This paper presents a statistical analysis of high frequency stress wave signals captured from a newly developed noninvasive, non-destructive tube inspection technique known as the vibration impact acoustic emission (VIAE) technique. Acoustic emission (AE) signals have been introduced into the ASTM A179 seamless steel tubes using an impact hammer, and the AE wave propagation was captured using an AE sensor. Specifically, a healthy steel tube as the reference tube and four steel tubes with through-hole artificial defect at different locations were used in this study. The AE features extracted from the captured signals are rise time, peak amplitude, duration and count. The VIAE technique also analysed the AE signals using statistical features such as root mean square (r.m.s.), energy, and crest factor. It was evident that duration, count, r.m.s., energy and crest factor could be used to automatically identify the presence of defect in carbon steel tubes using AE signals captured using the non-invasive VIAE technique.

Encoding Dissimilarity Data for Statistical Model Building.

Science.gov (United States)

Wahba, Grace

2010-12-01

We summarize, review and comment upon three papers which discuss the use of discrete, noisy, incomplete, scattered pairwise dissimilarity data in statistical model building. Convex cone optimization codes are used to embed the objects into a Euclidean space which respects the dissimilarity information while controlling the dimension of the space. A "newbie" algorithm is provided for embedding new objects into this space. This allows the dissimilarity information to be incorporated into a Smoothing Spline ANOVA penalized likelihood model, a Support Vector Machine, or any model that will admit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space components, for nonparametric regression, supervised learning, or semi-supervised learning. Future work and open questions are discussed. The papers are: F. Lu, S. Keles, S. Wright and G. Wahba 2005. A framework for kernel regularization with application to protein clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 12332-1233.G. Corrada Bravo, G. Wahba, K. Lee, B. Klein, R. Klein and S. Iyengar 2009. Examining the relative influence of familial, genetic and environmental covariate information in flexible risk models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 8128-8133F. Lu, Y. Lin and G. Wahba. Robust manifold unfolding with kernel regularization. TR 1008, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Simple classical model for Fano statistics in radiation detectors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jordan, David V. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)], E-mail: David.Jordan@pnl.gov; Renholds, Andrea S.; Jaffe, John E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Rene Corrales, L.; Peurrung, Anthony J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

2008-02-01

A simple classical model that captures the essential statistics of energy partitioning processes involved in the creation of information carriers (ICs) in radiation detectors is presented. The model pictures IC formation from a fixed amount of deposited energy in terms of the statistically analogous process of successively sampling water from a large, finite-volume container ('bathtub') with a small dipping implement ('shot or whiskey glass'). The model exhibits sub-Poisson variance in the distribution of the number of ICs generated (the 'Fano effect'). Elementary statistical analysis of the model clarifies the role of energy conservation in producing the Fano effect and yields Fano's prescription for computing the relative variance of the IC number distribution in terms of the mean and variance of the underlying, single-IC energy distribution. The partitioning model is applied to the development of the impact ionization cascade in semiconductor radiation detectors. It is shown that, in tandem with simple assumptions regarding the distribution of energies required to create an (electron, hole) pair, the model yields an energy-independent Fano factor of 0.083, in accord with the lower end of the range of literature values reported for silicon and high-purity germanium. The utility of this simple picture as a diagnostic tool for guiding or constraining more detailed, 'microscopic' physical models of detector material response to ionizing radiation is discussed.

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

A statistical pixel intensity model for segmentation of confocal laser scanning microscopy images.

Science.gov (United States)

Calapez, Alexandre; Rosa, Agostinho

2010-09-01

Confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) has been widely used in the life sciences for the characterization of cell processes because it allows the recording of the distribution of fluorescence-tagged macromolecules on a section of the living cell. It is in fact the cornerstone of many molecular transport and interaction quantification techniques where the identification of regions of interest through image segmentation is usually a required step. In many situations, because of the complexity of the recorded cellular structures or because of the amounts of data involved, image segmentation either is too difficult or inefficient to be done by hand and automated segmentation procedures have to be considered. Given the nature of CLSM images, statistical segmentation methodologies appear as natural candidates. In this work we propose a model to be used for statistical unsupervised CLSM image segmentation. The model is derived from the CLSM image formation mechanics and its performance is compared to the existing alternatives. Results show that it provides a much better description of the data on classes characterized by their mean intensity, making it suitable not only for segmentation methodologies with known number of classes but also for use with schemes aiming at the estimation of the number of classes through the application of cluster selection criteria.

Statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Wenjing; Sun, Jinqiu; Zhang, Yanning; Li, Haisen

2016-03-01

Photometric measurement is an important way to identify the space debris, but the present methods of photometric measurement have many constraints on star image and need complex image processing. Aiming at the problems, a statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement is proposed based on the global consistency of the star image, and the statistical information of star images is used to eliminate the measurement noises. First, the known stars on the star image are divided into training stars and testing stars. Then, the training stars are selected as the least squares fitting parameters to construct the photometric measurement model, and the testing stars are used to calculate the measurement accuracy of the photometric measurement model. Experimental results show that, the accuracy of the proposed photometric measurement model is about 0.1 magnitudes.

Statistical evaluation of diagnostic performance topics in ROC analysis

CERN Document Server

Zou, Kelly H; Bandos, Andriy I; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Rockette, Howard E

2016-01-01

Statistical evaluation of diagnostic performance in general and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis in particular are important for assessing the performance of medical tests and statistical classifiers, as well as for evaluating predictive models or algorithms. This book presents innovative approaches in ROC analysis, which are relevant to a wide variety of applications, including medical imaging, cancer research, epidemiology, and bioinformatics. Statistical Evaluation of Diagnostic Performance: Topics in ROC Analysis covers areas including monotone-transformation techniques in parametric ROC analysis, ROC methods for combined and pooled biomarkers, Bayesian hierarchical transformation models, sequential designs and inferences in the ROC setting, predictive modeling, multireader ROC analysis, and free-response ROC (FROC) methodology. The book is suitable for graduate-level students and researchers in statistics, biostatistics, epidemiology, public health, biomedical engineering, radiology, medi...

GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

Science.gov (United States)

Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

2018-03-01

We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

Experimental, statistical, and biological models of radon carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, F.T.

1991-09-01

Risk models developed for underground miners have not been consistently validated in studies of populations exposed to indoor radon. Imprecision in risk estimates results principally from differences between exposures in mines as compared to domestic environments and from uncertainties about the interaction between cigarette-smoking and exposure to radon decay products. Uncertainties in extrapolating miner data to domestic exposures can be reduced by means of a broad-based health effects research program that addresses the interrelated issues of exposure, respiratory tract dose, carcinogenesis (molecular/cellular and animal studies, plus developing biological and statistical models), and the relationship of radon to smoking and other copollutant exposures. This article reviews experimental animal data on radon carcinogenesis observed primarily in rats at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Recent experimental and mechanistic carcinogenesis models of exposures to radon, uranium ore dust, and cigarette smoke are presented with statistical analyses of animal data. 20 refs., 1 fig

Generic Techniques for the Calibration of Robots with Application of the 3-D Fixtures and Statistical Technique on the PUMA 500 and ARID Robots

Science.gov (United States)

Tawfik, Hazem

1991-01-01

A relatively simple, inexpensive, and generic technique that could be used in both laboratories and some operation site environments is introduced at the Robotics Applications and Development Laboratory (RADL) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In addition, this report gives a detailed explanation of the set up procedure, data collection, and analysis using this new technique that was developed at the State University of New York at Farmingdale. The technique was used to evaluate the repeatability, accuracy, and overshoot of the Unimate Industrial Robot, PUMA 500. The data were statistically analyzed to provide an insight into the performance of the systems and components of the robot. Also, the same technique was used to check the forward kinematics against the inverse kinematics of RADL's PUMA robot. Recommendations were made for RADL to use this technique for laboratory calibration of the currently existing robots such as the ASEA, high speed controller, Automated Radiator Inspection Device (ARID) etc. Also, recommendations were made to develop and establish other calibration techniques that will be more suitable for site calibration environment and robot certification.

A statistical model for instable thermodynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sommer, Jens-Uwe

2003-01-01

A generic model is presented for statistical systems which display thermodynamic features in contrast to our everyday experience, such as infinite and negative heat capacities. Such system are instable in terms of classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Using our statistical model, we are able to investigate states of instable systems which are undefined in the framework of equilibrium thermodynamics. We show that a region of negative heat capacity in the adiabatic environment, leads to a first order like phase transition when the system is coupled to a heat reservoir. This phase transition takes place without a phase coexistence. Nevertheless, all intermediate states are stable due to fluctuations. When two instable system are brought in thermal contact, the temperature of the composed system is lower than the minimum temperature of the individual systems. Generally, the equilibrium states of instable system cannot be simply decomposed into equilibrium states of the individual systems. The properties of instable system depend on the environment, ensemble equivalence is broken

WE-A-201-00: Anne and Donald Herbert Distinguished Lectureship On Modern Statistical Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2016-06-15

Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

WE-A-201-00: Anne and Donald Herbert Distinguished Lectureship On Modern Statistical Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

Model Accuracy Comparison for High Resolution Insar Coherence Statistics Over Urban Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yue; Fu, Kun; Sun, Xian; Xu, Guangluan; Wang, Hongqi

2016-06-01

The interferometric coherence map derived from the cross-correlation of two complex registered synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is the reflection of imaged targets. In many applications, it can act as an independent information source, or give additional information complementary to the intensity image. Specially, the statistical properties of the coherence are of great importance in land cover classification, segmentation and change detection. However, compared to the amount of work on the statistical characters of SAR intensity, there are quite fewer researches on interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence statistics. And to our knowledge, all of the existing work that focuses on InSAR coherence statistics, models the coherence with Gaussian distribution with no discrimination on data resolutions or scene types. But the properties of coherence may be different for different data resolutions and scene types. In this paper, we investigate on the coherence statistics for high resolution data over urban areas, by making a comparison of the accuracy of several typical statistical models. Four typical land classes including buildings, trees, shadow and roads are selected as the representatives of urban areas. Firstly, several regions are selected from the coherence map manually and labelled with their corresponding classes respectively. Then we try to model the statistics of the pixel coherence for each type of region, with different models including Gaussian, Rayleigh, Weibull, Beta and Nakagami. Finally, we evaluate the model accuracy for each type of region. The experiments on TanDEM-X data show that the Beta model has a better performance than other distributions.

MODEL ACCURACY COMPARISON FOR HIGH RESOLUTION INSAR COHERENCE STATISTICS OVER URBAN AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The interferometric coherence map derived from the cross-correlation of two complex registered synthetic aperture radar (SAR images is the reflection of imaged targets. In many applications, it can act as an independent information source, or give additional information complementary to the intensity image. Specially, the statistical properties of the coherence are of great importance in land cover classification, segmentation and change detection. However, compared to the amount of work on the statistical characters of SAR intensity, there are quite fewer researches on interferometric SAR (InSAR coherence statistics. And to our knowledge, all of the existing work that focuses on InSAR coherence statistics, models the coherence with Gaussian distribution with no discrimination on data resolutions or scene types. But the properties of coherence may be different for different data resolutions and scene types. In this paper, we investigate on the coherence statistics for high resolution data over urban areas, by making a comparison of the accuracy of several typical statistical models. Four typical land classes including buildings, trees, shadow and roads are selected as the representatives of urban areas. Firstly, several regions are selected from the coherence map manually and labelled with their corresponding classes respectively. Then we try to model the statistics of the pixel coherence for each type of region, with different models including Gaussian, Rayleigh, Weibull, Beta and Nakagami. Finally, we evaluate the model accuracy for each type of region. The experiments on TanDEM-X data show that the Beta model has a better performance than other distributions.

Statistical Modelling of Resonant Cross Section Structure in URR, Model of the Characteristic Function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koyumdjieva, N.

2006-01-01

A statistical model for the resonant cross section structure in the Unresolved Resonance Region has been developed in the framework of the R-matrix formalism in Reich Moore approach with effective accounting of the resonance parameters fluctuations. The model uses only the average resonance parameters and can be effectively applied for analyses of cross sections functional, averaged over many resonances. Those are cross section moments, transmission and self-indication functions measured through thick sample. In this statistical model the resonant cross sections structure is accepted to be periodic and the R-matrix is a function of ε=E/D with period 0≤ε≤N; R nc (ε)=π/2√(S n *S c )1/NΣ(i=1,N)(β in *β ic *ctg[π(ε i - = ε-iS i )/N]; Here S n ,S c ,S i is respectively neutron strength function, strength function for fission or inelastic channel and strength function for radiative capture, N is the number of resonances (ε i ,β i ) that obey the statistic of Porter-Thomas and Wigner's one. The simple case of this statistical model concerns the resonant cross section structure for non-fissile nuclei under the threshold for inelastic scattering - the model of the characteristic function with HARFOR program. In the above model some improvements of calculation of the phases and logarithmic derivatives of neutron channels have been done. In the parameterization we use the free parameter R l ∞ , which accounts the influence of long-distant resonances. The above scheme for statistical modelling of the resonant cross section structure has been applied for evaluation of experimental data for total, capture and inelastic cross sections for 232 Th in the URR (4-150) keV and also the transmission and self-indication functions in (4-175) keV. The set of evaluated average resonance parameters have been obtained. The evaluated average resonance parameters in the URR are consistent with those in the Resolved Resonance Region (CRP for Th-U cycle, Vienna, 2006

Analysis of Variance in Statistical Image Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz, Ludwik; Hafed Benteftifa, M.

1997-04-01

A key problem in practical image processing is the detection of specific features in a noisy image. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques can be very effective in such situations, and this book gives a detailed account of the use of ANOVA in statistical image processing. The book begins by describing the statistical representation of images in the various ANOVA models. The authors present a number of computationally efficient algorithms and techniques to deal with such problems as line, edge, and object detection, as well as image restoration and enhancement. By describing the basic principles of these techniques, and showing their use in specific situations, the book will facilitate the design of new algorithms for particular applications. It will be of great interest to graduate students and engineers in the field of image processing and pattern recognition.

Acid hydrolysis of corn stover using hydrochloric acid: Kinetic modeling and statistical optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sun Yong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The hydrolysis of corn stover using hydrochloric acid was studied. The kinetic parameters of the mathematical models for predicting the yields of xylose, glucose, furfural and acetic acid were obtained, and the corresponding xylose generation activation energy of 100 kJ/mol was determined. The characterization of corn stover using with different techniques during hydrolysis indicated an effective removal of xylan and the slightly alteration on the structures of cellulose and lignin. A 23five levels Central Composite Design (CCD was used to develop a statistical model for the optimization of process variables including acid concentration, pretreatment temperature and time. The optimum conditions determined by this model were found to be 108ºC for 80 minutes with acid concentration of 5.8%. Under these conditions, the maximised results are the following: xylose 19.93 g/L, glucose 1.2 g/L, furfural 1.5 g/L, acetic acid 1.3 g/L. The validation of the model indicates a good agreement between the experimental results and the predicted values.

A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trevisan, Luis A.; Mirez, Carlos

2013-01-01

We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.

PVeStA: A Parallel Statistical Model Checking and Quantitative Analysis Tool

KAUST Repository

AlTurki, Musab

2011-01-01

Statistical model checking is an attractive formal analysis method for probabilistic systems such as, for example, cyber-physical systems which are often probabilistic in nature. This paper is about drastically increasing the scalability of statistical model checking, and making such scalability of analysis available to tools like Maude, where probabilistic systems can be specified at a high level as probabilistic rewrite theories. It presents PVeStA, an extension and parallelization of the VeStA statistical model checking tool [10]. PVeStA supports statistical model checking of probabilistic real-time systems specified as either: (i) discrete or continuous Markov Chains; or (ii) probabilistic rewrite theories in Maude. Furthermore, the properties that it can model check can be expressed in either: (i) PCTL/CSL, or (ii) the QuaTEx quantitative temporal logic. As our experiments show, the performance gains obtained from parallelization can be very high. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Local yield stress statistics in model amorphous solids

Science.gov (United States)

Barbot, Armand; Lerbinger, Matthias; Hernandez-Garcia, Anier; García-García, Reinaldo; Falk, Michael L.; Vandembroucq, Damien; Patinet, Sylvain

2018-03-01

We develop and extend a method presented by Patinet, Vandembroucq, and Falk [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 045501 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.045501] to compute the local yield stresses at the atomic scale in model two-dimensional Lennard-Jones glasses produced via differing quench protocols. This technique allows us to sample the plastic rearrangements in a nonperturbative manner for different loading directions on a well-controlled length scale. Plastic activity upon shearing correlates strongly with the locations of low yield stresses in the quenched states. This correlation is higher in more structurally relaxed systems. The distribution of local yield stresses is also shown to strongly depend on the quench protocol: the more relaxed the glass, the higher the local plastic thresholds. Analysis of the magnitude of local plastic relaxations reveals that stress drops follow exponential distributions, justifying the hypothesis of an average characteristic amplitude often conjectured in mesoscopic or continuum models. The amplitude of the local plastic rearrangements increases on average with the yield stress, regardless of the system preparation. The local yield stress varies with the shear orientation tested and strongly correlates with the plastic rearrangement locations when the system is sheared correspondingly. It is thus argued that plastic rearrangements are the consequence of shear transformation zones encoded in the glass structure that possess weak slip planes along different orientations. Finally, we justify the length scale employed in this work and extract the yield threshold statistics as a function of the size of the probing zones. This method makes it possible to derive physically grounded models of plasticity for amorphous materials by directly revealing the relevant details of the shear transformation zones that mediate this process.

Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...... approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge...

Mathematical statistics

CERN Document Server

Pestman, Wiebe R

2009-01-01

This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.

Feature selection, statistical modeling and its applications to universal JPEG steganalyzer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jalan, Jaikishan [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2009-01-01

Steganalysis deals with identifying the instances of medium(s) which carry a message for communication by concealing their exisitence. This research focuses on steganalysis of JPEG images, because of its ubiquitous nature and low bandwidth requirement for storage and transmission. JPEG image steganalysis is generally addressed by representing an image with lower-dimensional features such as statistical properties, and then training a classifier on the feature set to differentiate between an innocent and stego image. Our approach is two fold: first, we propose a new feature reduction technique by applying Mahalanobis distance to rank the features for steganalysis. Many successful steganalysis algorithms use a large number of features relative to the size of the training set and suffer from a ”curse of dimensionality”: large number of feature values relative to training data size. We apply this technique to state-of-the-art steganalyzer proposed by Tom´as Pevn´y (54) to understand the feature space complexity and effectiveness of features for steganalysis. We show that using our approach, reduced-feature steganalyzers can be obtained that perform as well as the original steganalyzer. Based on our experimental observation, we then propose a new modeling technique for steganalysis by developing a Partially Ordered Markov Model (POMM) (23) to JPEG images and use its properties to train a Support Vector Machine. POMM generalizes the concept of local neighborhood directionality by using a partial order underlying the pixel locations. We show that the proposed steganalyzer outperforms a state-of-the-art steganalyzer by testing our approach with many different image databases, having a total of 20000 images. Finally, we provide a software package with a Graphical User Interface that has been developed to make this research accessible to local state forensic departments.

Statistical approaches to forecast gamma dose rates by using measurements from the atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, H.J.; Hwang, W. T.; Kim, E.H.; Han, M.H.

2008-01-01

In this paper, the results obtained by inter-comparing several statistical techniques for estimating gamma dose rates, such as an exponential moving average model, a seasonal exponential smoothing model and an artificial neural networks model, are reported. Seven years of gamma dose rates data measured in Daejeon City, Korea, were divided into two parts to develop the models and validate the effectiveness of the generated predictions by the techniques mentioned above. Artificial neural networks model shows the best forecasting capability among the three statistical models. The reason why the artificial neural networks model provides a superior prediction to the other models would be its ability for a non-linear approximation. To replace the gamma dose rates when missing data for an environmental monitoring system occurs, the moving average model and the seasonal exponential smoothing model can be better because they are faster and easier for applicability than the artificial neural networks model. These kinds of statistical approaches will be helpful for a real-time control of radio emissions or for an environmental quality assessment. (authors)

Inclusion of temperature dependence of fission barriers in statistical model calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newton, J.O.; Popescu, D.G.; Leigh, J.R.

1990-08-01

The temperature dependence of fission barriers has been interpolated from the results of recent theoretical calculations and included in the statistical model code PACE2. It is shown that the inclusion of temperature dependence causes significant changes to the values of the statistical model parameters deduced from fits to experimental data. 21 refs., 2 figs

A Census of Statistics Requirements at U.S. Journalism Programs and a Model for a "Statistics for Journalism" Course

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Justin D.

2017-01-01

This essay presents data from a census of statistics requirements and offerings at all 4-year journalism programs in the United States (N = 369) and proposes a model of a potential course in statistics for journalism majors. The author proposes that three philosophies underlie a statistics course for journalism students. Such a course should (a)…

Central Limit Theorem for Exponentially Quasi-local Statistics of Spin Models on Cayley Graphs

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Tulasi Ram; Vadlamani, Sreekar; Yogeshwaran, D.

2018-04-01

Central limit theorems for linear statistics of lattice random fields (including spin models) are usually proven under suitable mixing conditions or quasi-associativity. Many interesting examples of spin models do not satisfy mixing conditions, and on the other hand, it does not seem easy to show central limit theorem for local statistics via quasi-associativity. In this work, we prove general central limit theorems for local statistics and exponentially quasi-local statistics of spin models on discrete Cayley graphs with polynomial growth. Further, we supplement these results by proving similar central limit theorems for random fields on discrete Cayley graphs taking values in a countable space, but under the stronger assumptions of α -mixing (for local statistics) and exponential α -mixing (for exponentially quasi-local statistics). All our central limit theorems assume a suitable variance lower bound like many others in the literature. We illustrate our general central limit theorem with specific examples of lattice spin models and statistics arising in computational topology, statistical physics and random networks. Examples of clustering spin models include quasi-associated spin models with fast decaying covariances like the off-critical Ising model, level sets of Gaussian random fields with fast decaying covariances like the massive Gaussian free field and determinantal point processes with fast decaying kernels. Examples of local statistics include intrinsic volumes, face counts, component counts of random cubical complexes while exponentially quasi-local statistics include nearest neighbour distances in spin models and Betti numbers of sub-critical random cubical complexes.

Structural reliability in context of statistical uncertainties and modelling discrepancies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pendola, Maurice

2000-01-01

Structural reliability methods have been largely improved during the last years and have showed their ability to deal with uncertainties during the design stage or to optimize the functioning and the maintenance of industrial installations. They are based on a mechanical modeling of the structural behavior according to the considered failure modes and on a probabilistic representation of input parameters of this modeling. In practice, only limited statistical information is available to build the probabilistic representation and different sophistication levels of the mechanical modeling may be introduced. Thus, besides the physical randomness, other uncertainties occur in such analyses. The aim of this work is triple: 1. at first, to propose a methodology able to characterize the statistical uncertainties due to the limited number of data in order to take them into account in the reliability analyses. The obtained reliability index measures the confidence in the structure considering the statistical information available. 2. Then, to show a methodology leading to reliability results evaluated from a particular mechanical modeling but by using a less sophisticated one. The objective is then to decrease the computational efforts required by the reference modeling. 3. Finally, to propose partial safety factors that are evolving as a function of the number of statistical data available and as a function of the sophistication level of the mechanical modeling that is used. The concepts are illustrated in the case of a welded pipe and in the case of a natural draught cooling tower. The results show the interest of the methodologies in an industrial context. [fr

Testing of statistical techniques used in SYVAC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalrymple, G.; Edwards, H.; Prust, J.

1984-01-01

Analysis of the SYVAC (SYstems Variability Analysis Code) output adopted four techniques to provide a cross comparison of their performance. The techniques used were: examination of scatter plots; correlation/regression; Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance by ranks; comparison of cumulative distribution functions and risk estimates between sub-ranges of parameter values. The analysis was conducted for the case of a single nuclide chain and was based mainly on simulated dose after 500,000 years. The results from this single SYVAC case showed that site parameters had the greatest influence on dose to man. The techniques of correlation/regression and Kruskal-Wallis were both successful and consistent in their identification of important parameters. Both techniques ranked the eight most important parameters in the same order when analysed for maximum dose. The results from a comparison of cdfs and risks in sub-ranges of the parameter values were not entirely consistent with other techniques. Further sampling of the high dose region is recommended in order to improve the accuracy of this method. (author)

Model-based iterative reconstruction technique for radiation dose reduction in chest CT: comparison with the adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katsura, Masaki; Matsuda, Izuru; Akahane, Masaaki; Sato, Jiro; Akai, Hiroyuki; Yasaka, Koichiro; Kunimatsu, Akira; Ohtomo, Kuni [University of Tokyo, Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

2012-08-15

To prospectively evaluate dose reduction and image quality characteristics of chest CT reconstructed with model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) compared with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR). One hundred patients underwent reference-dose and low-dose unenhanced chest CT with 64-row multidetector CT. Images were reconstructed with 50 % ASIR-filtered back projection blending (ASIR50) for reference-dose CT, and with ASIR50 and MBIR for low-dose CT. Two radiologists assessed the images in a blinded manner for subjective image noise, artefacts and diagnostic acceptability. Objective image noise was measured in the lung parenchyma. Data were analysed using the sign test and pair-wise Student's t-test. Compared with reference-dose CT, there was a 79.0 % decrease in dose-length product with low-dose CT. Low-dose MBIR images had significantly lower objective image noise (16.93 {+-} 3.00) than low-dose ASIR (49.24 {+-} 9.11, P < 0.01) and reference-dose ASIR images (24.93 {+-} 4.65, P < 0.01). Low-dose MBIR images were all diagnostically acceptable. Unique features of low-dose MBIR images included motion artefacts and pixellated blotchy appearances, which did not adversely affect diagnostic acceptability. Diagnostically acceptable chest CT images acquired with nearly 80 % less radiation can be obtained using MBIR. MBIR shows greater potential than ASIR for providing diagnostically acceptable low-dose CT images without severely compromising image quality. (orig.)

Directional statistics-based reflectance model for isotropic bidirectional reflectance distribution functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishino, Ko; Lombardi, Stephen

2011-01-01

We introduce a novel parametric bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model that can accurately encode a wide variety of real-world isotropic BRDFs with a small number of parameters. The key observation we make is that a BRDF may be viewed as a statistical distribution on a unit hemisphere. We derive a novel directional statistics distribution, which we refer to as the hemispherical exponential power distribution, and model real-world isotropic BRDFs as mixtures of it. We derive a canonical probabilistic method for estimating the parameters, including the number of components, of this novel directional statistics BRDF model. We show that the model captures the full spectrum of real-world isotropic BRDFs with high accuracy, but a small footprint. We also demonstrate the advantages of the novel BRDF model by showing its use for reflection component separation and for exploring the space of isotropic BRDFs.

A Statistical Primer: Understanding Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

OpenAIRE

Gillian Byrne

2007-01-01

As libraries and librarians move more towards evidence‐based decision making, the data being generated in libraries is growing. Understanding the basics of statistical analysis is crucial for evidence‐based practice (EBP), in order to correctly design and analyze researchas well as to evaluate the research of others. This article covers the fundamentals of descriptive and inferential statistics, from hypothesis construction to sampling to common statistical techniques including chi‐square, co...

Water quality, Multivariate statistical techniques, submarine out fall, spatial variation, temporal variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, Francisco; Palacio, Carlos; Garcia, Uriel

2012-01-01

Multivariate statistical techniques were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of water quality at the Santa Marta coastal area where a submarine out fall that discharges 1 m3/s of domestic wastewater is located. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), cluster and principal component analysis and Krigging interpolation were considered for this report. Temporal variation showed two heterogeneous periods. From December to April, and July, where the concentration of the water quality parameters is higher; the rest of the year (May, June, August-November) were significantly lower. The spatial variation reported two areas where the water quality is different, this difference is related to the proximity to the submarine out fall discharge.

Virtual 3d City Modeling: Techniques and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, S. P.; Jain, K.; Mandla, V. R.

2013-08-01

3D city model is a digital representation of the Earth's surface and it's related objects such as Building, Tree, Vegetation, and some manmade feature belonging to urban area. There are various terms used for 3D city models such as "Cybertown", "Cybercity", "Virtual City", or "Digital City". 3D city models are basically a computerized or digital model of a city contains the graphic representation of buildings and other objects in 2.5 or 3D. Generally three main Geomatics approach are using for Virtual 3-D City models generation, in first approach, researcher are using Conventional techniques such as Vector Map data, DEM, Aerial images, second approach are based on High resolution satellite images with LASER scanning, In third method, many researcher are using Terrestrial images by using Close Range Photogrammetry with DSM & Texture mapping. We start this paper from the introduction of various Geomatics techniques for 3D City modeling. These techniques divided in to two main categories: one is based on Automation (Automatic, Semi-automatic and Manual methods), and another is Based on Data input techniques (one is Photogrammetry, another is Laser Techniques). After details study of this, finally in short, we are trying to give the conclusions of this study. In the last, we are trying to give the conclusions of this research paper and also giving a short view for justification and analysis, and present trend for 3D City modeling. This paper gives an overview about the Techniques related with "Generation of Virtual 3-D City models using Geomatics Techniques" and the Applications of Virtual 3D City models. Photogrammetry, (Close range, Aerial, Satellite), Lasergrammetry, GPS, or combination of these modern Geomatics techniques play a major role to create a virtual 3-D City model. Each and every techniques and method has some advantages and some drawbacks. Point cloud model is a modern trend for virtual 3-D city model. Photo-realistic, Scalable, Geo-referenced virtual 3

Statistical approach for selection of regression model during validation of bioanalytical method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalija Nakov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The selection of an adequate regression model is the basis for obtaining accurate and reproducible results during the bionalytical method validation. Given the wide concentration range, frequently present in bioanalytical assays, heteroscedasticity of the data may be expected. Several weighted linear and quadratic regression models were evaluated during the selection of the adequate curve fit using nonparametric statistical tests: One sample rank test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for two independent groups of samples. The results obtained with One sample rank test could not give statistical justification for the selection of linear vs. quadratic regression models because slight differences between the error (presented through the relative residuals were obtained. Estimation of the significance of the differences in the RR was achieved using Wilcoxon signed rank test, where linear and quadratic regression models were treated as two independent groups. The application of this simple non-parametric statistical test provides statistical confirmation of the choice of an adequate regression model.

Analysis of room transfer function and reverberant signal statistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Georganti, Eleftheria; Mourjopoulos, John; Jacobsen, Finn

2008-01-01

For some time now, statistical analysis has been a valuable tool in analyzing room transfer functions (RTFs). This work examines existing statistical time-frequency models and techniques for RTF analysis (e.g., Schroeder's stochastic model and the standard deviation over frequency bands for the RTF...... magnitude and phase). RTF fractional octave smoothing, as with 1-slash 3 octave analysis, may lead to RTF simplifications that can be useful for several audio applications, like room compensation, room modeling, auralisation purposes. The aim of this work is to identify the relationship of optimal response...... and the corresponding ratio of the direct and reverberant signal. In addition, this work examines the statistical quantities for speech and audio signals prior to their reproduction within rooms and when recorded in rooms. Histograms and other statistical distributions are used to compare RTF minima of typical...

Autonomous Modeling, Statistical Complexity and Semi-annealed Treatment of Boolean Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Xinwei

This dissertation presents three studies on Boolean networks. Boolean networks are a class of mathematical systems consisting of interacting elements with binary state variables. Each element is a node with a Boolean logic gate, and the presence of interactions between any two nodes is represented by directed links. Boolean networks that implement the logic structures of real systems are studied as coarse-grained models of the real systems. Large random Boolean networks are studied with mean field approximations and used to provide a baseline of possible behaviors of large real systems. This dissertation presents one study of the former type, concerning the stable oscillation of a yeast cell-cycle oscillator, and two studies of the latter type, respectively concerning the statistical complexity of large random Boolean networks and an extension of traditional mean field techniques that accounts for the presence of short loops. In the cell-cycle oscillator study, a novel autonomous update scheme is introduced to study the stability of oscillations in small networks. A motif that corrects pulse-growing perturbations and a motif that grows pulses are identified. A combination of the two motifs is capable of sustaining stable oscillations. Examining a Boolean model of the yeast cell-cycle oscillator using an autonomous update scheme yields evidence that it is endowed with such a combination. Random Boolean networks are classified as ordered, critical or disordered based on their response to small perturbations. In the second study, random Boolean networks are taken as prototypical cases for the evaluation of two measures of complexity based on a criterion for optimal statistical prediction. One measure, defined for homogeneous systems, does not distinguish between the static spatial inhomogeneity in the ordered phase and the dynamical inhomogeneity in the disordered phase. A modification in which complexities of individual nodes are calculated yields vanishing

Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.

2017-06-01

Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.

Benchmark validation of statistical models: Application to mediation analysis of imagery and memory.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, David P; Valente, Matthew J; Wurpts, Ingrid C

2018-03-29

This article describes benchmark validation, an approach to validating a statistical model. According to benchmark validation, a valid model generates estimates and research conclusions consistent with a known substantive effect. Three types of benchmark validation-(a) benchmark value, (b) benchmark estimate, and (c) benchmark effect-are described and illustrated with examples. Benchmark validation methods are especially useful for statistical models with assumptions that are untestable or very difficult to test. Benchmark effect validation methods were applied to evaluate statistical mediation analysis in eight studies using the established effect that increasing mental imagery improves recall of words. Statistical mediation analysis led to conclusions about mediation that were consistent with established theory that increased imagery leads to increased word recall. Benchmark validation based on established substantive theory is discussed as a general way to investigate characteristics of statistical models and a complement to mathematical proof and statistical simulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip Leifeld

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.

Evaluating Statistical Process Control (SPC) techniques and computing the uncertainty of force calibrations

Science.gov (United States)

Navard, Sharon E.

1989-01-01

In recent years there has been a push within NASA to use statistical techniques to improve the quality of production. Two areas where statistics are used are in establishing product and process quality control of flight hardware and in evaluating the uncertainty of calibration of instruments. The Flight Systems Quality Engineering branch is responsible for developing and assuring the quality of all flight hardware; the statistical process control methods employed are reviewed and evaluated. The Measurement Standards and Calibration Laboratory performs the calibration of all instruments used on-site at JSC as well as those used by all off-site contractors. These calibrations must be performed in such a way as to be traceable to national standards maintained by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and they must meet a four-to-one ratio of the instrument specifications to calibrating standard uncertainty. In some instances this ratio is not met, and in these cases it is desirable to compute the exact uncertainty of the calibration and determine ways of reducing it. A particular example where this problem is encountered is with a machine which does automatic calibrations of force. The process of force calibration using the United Force Machine is described in detail. The sources of error are identified and quantified when possible. Suggestions for improvement are made.

Statistical Modelling of Temperature and Moisture Uptake of Biochars Exposed to Selected Relative Humidity of Air

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciane Bastistella

2018-02-01

Full Text Available New experimental techniques, as well as modern variants on known methods, have recently been employed to investigate the fundamental reactions underlying the oxidation of biochar. The purpose of this paper was to experimentally and statistically study how the relative humidity of air, mass, and particle size of four biochars influenced the adsorption of water and the increase in temperature. A random factorial design was employed using the intuitive statistical software Xlstat. A simple linear regression model and an analysis of variance with a pairwise comparison were performed. The experimental study was carried out on the wood of Quercus pubescens, Cyclobalanopsis glauca, Trigonostemon huangmosun, and Bambusa vulgaris, and involved five relative humidity conditions (22, 43, 75, 84, and 90%, two mass samples (0.1 and 1 g, and two particle sizes (powder and piece. Two response variables including water adsorption and temperature increase were analyzed and discussed. The temperature did not increase linearly with the adsorption of water. Temperature was modeled by nine explanatory variables, while water adsorption was modeled by eight. Five variables, including factors and their interactions, were found to be common to the two models. Sample mass and relative humidity influenced the two qualitative variables, while particle size and biochar type only influenced the temperature.

Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F

2014-09-01

Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A classical statistical model of heavy ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)