Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basche, A.D.
1998-01-01
The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhengqi He
2018-04-01
Full Text Available In China, large hydraulic engineering projects have made a great contribution to social economic development; at the same time, they also lead to social risks that affect social stability. The pluralism of stakeholders in large hydraulic engineering projects and the complex interrelationship among stakeholders are the important factors affecting social stability risk. Previous studies of social stability risk have mainly focused on risk identification and risk assessment, without considering the relationships among stakeholders and their linkages of risks. For large hydraulic engineering projects, this paper investigated the relevant risk factors and their interrelationships through a literature review and interviews that represented stakeholder perspectives. The key social stability risk factors were identified based on social network analysis. A multi-channel project financial system, a perfect interest compensation mechanism, an efficient prevention mechanism of group events, and a complete project schedule control system were proposed to mitigate the social stability risks. This study combined stakeholder management with risk management by using social network analysis, providing reference for the social stability risk management of large engineering projects in China.
RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY
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Camelia MILEA
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Starting from the definition according to which monetary stability requires an appropriate level of liquidity in an economy with dynamic objectives, of growth and job creation, non-inflationary in terms of price stability, based on the analysis of the effects of some relevant economic phenomena and on the economic literature, in this article, the author has highlighted some of the risks to monetary stability. One of the major risks is represented by the loss of its instruments, i.e. the instruments for liquidity management, through monetary and exchange rate policies. Another important risk is represented by the capital fluctuation due to various shocks: exchange rate, political, financial and capital account liberalization. Also, as a result of the analysis of relevant studies and of the effects of the European integration in terms of monetary stability, the author has shown the elements on which depends monetary stability. Among these, there are: the existence of an institutional framework with a clear goal and a proper degree of responsibility, strong operational independence of monetary policy, monetary policy implementation with a view to ensuring an appropriate balance between discipline and discretion, the level of the interest rate of monetary policy, the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the existence of a viable and stable financial system, the existence of enough instruments at hand for the central bank, the structure and soundness of the financial and banking system. The paper is a capitalization of the research project “Global Risks for the Financial and Monetary Stability. Implications for Romania and European Union” elaborated in 2013, at “Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research.
Containment vessel stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harstead, G.A.; Morris, N.F.; Unsal, A.I.
1983-01-01
The stability analysis for a steel containment shell is presented herein. The containment is a freestanding shell consisting of a vertical cylinder with a hemispherical dome. It is stiffened by large ring stiffeners and relatively small longitudinal stiffeners. The containment vessel is subjected to both static and dynamic loads which can cause buckling. These loads must be combined prior to their use in a stability analysis. The buckling loads were computed with the aid of the ASME Code case N-284 used in conjunction with general purpose computer codes and in-house programs. The equations contained in the Code case were used to compute the knockdown factors due to shell imperfections. After these knockdown factors were applied to the critical stress states determined by freezing the maximum dynamic stresses and combining them with other static stresses, a linear bifurcation analysis was carried out with the aid of the BOSOR4 program. Since the containment shell contained large penetrations, the Code case had to be supplemented by a local buckling analysis of the shell area surrounding the largest penetration. This analysis was carried out with the aid of the NASTRAN program. Although the factor of safety against buckling obtained in this analysis was satisfactory, it is claimed that the use of the Code case knockdown factors are unduly conservative when applied to the analysis of buckling around penetrations. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.
1997-01-01
This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es
Active Risk Management and Banking Stability
Silva Buston, C.F.
2013-01-01
Abstract: This paper analyzes the net impact of two opposing effects of active risk management at banks on their stability: higher risk-taking incentives and better isolation of credit supply from varying economic conditions. We present a model where banks actively manage their portfolio risk by
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Correa Lizarazu, X.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Valtonen, K.
1990-01-01
The objective of this study has been to examine TVO-I oscillation incident, which occured in February 22.1987 and to find out safety implications of oscillations in ATWS incidents. Calculations have been performed with RAMONA-3B and TRAB codes. RAMONA-3B is a BWR transient analysis code with three-dimencional neutron kinetics and nonequilibrium, nonhomogeneous thermal hydraulics. TRAB code is a one-dimencional BWR transient code which uses methods similar to RAMONA-3B. The results have shown that both codes are capable of analyzing of the oscillation incidents. Both out-of-phase and in-phase oscillations are possible. If the reactor scram fails (ATWS) during oscillations the severe fuel failures are always possible and the reactor core may exceed the prompt criticality
Information security risk analysis
Peltier, Thomas R
2001-01-01
Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex
PATRIMONIAL ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY
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GABRIELA CORINA SLUSARIUC
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Patrimonial analysis of financial stability is realized with the help of some indicator determined on the balance: working capital; required working capital and net treasury. These indicators are determined and presented in evolution at two companies with different situations, and there are given conclusions and suggestions concerning achieving and maintaining the financial equilibrium or initiating corrective measures in time, before the imbalance would take irrecoverable forms.
Milanović, Jovica V
2017-08-13
Future power systems will be significantly different compared with their present states. They will be characterized by an unprecedented mix of a wide range of electricity generation and transmission technologies, as well as responsive and highly flexible demand and storage devices with significant temporal and spatial uncertainty. The importance of probabilistic approaches towards power system stability analysis, as a subsection of power system studies routinely carried out by power system operators, has been highlighted in previous research. However, it may not be feasible (or even possible) to accurately model all of the uncertainties that exist within a power system. This paper describes for the first time an integral approach to probabilistic stability analysis of power systems, including small and large angular stability and frequency stability. It provides guidance for handling uncertainties in power system stability studies and some illustrative examples of the most recent results of probabilistic stability analysis of uncertain power systems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).
Aven, Terje
2012-01-01
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and
Stability analysis and stabilization strategies for linear supply chains
Nagatani, Takashi; Helbing, Dirk
2004-04-01
Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as “bull-whip effect”. Here, we study several conceivable production strategies to stabilize supply chains, which is expressed by different specifications of the management function controlling the production speed in dependence of the stock levels. In particular, we will investigate, whether the reaction to stock levels of other producers or suppliers has a stabilizing effect. We will also demonstrate that the anticipation of future stock levels can stabilize the supply system, given the forecast horizon τ is long enough. To show this, we derive linear stability conditions and carry out simulations for different control strategies. The results indicate that the linear stability analysis is a helpful tool for the judgement of the stabilization effect, although unexpected deviations can occur in the non-linear regime. There are also signs of phase transitions and chaotic behavior, but this remains to be investigated more thoroughly in the future.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thompson, W.A. Jr.
1979-11-01
This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hughes, M.H.; Phillps, M.W.; Todd, A.M.M.; Krishnaswami, J.; Hartley, R.
1992-09-01
This report describes ideal and resistive studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Emphasis is focused on ''supershot'' plasmas in TFIR where MHD instabilities are frequently observed and which spoil their confinement properties. Substantial results are described from the analysis of these high beta poloidal plasmas. During these studies, initial pressure and safety factor profiles were obtained from the TRANSP code, which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. Resistive MBD stability studies of supershot equilibria show that finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is very strong in these high βp plasmas. This has prompted a detailed re-examination of linear tearing mode theory in which we participated in collaboration with Columbia University and General Atomics. This finite pressure effect is shown to be highly sensitive to small scale details of the pressure profile. Even when an ad hoc method of removing this stabilizing mechanism is implemented, however, it is shown that there is only superficial agreement between resistive MBD stability computation and the experimental data. While the mode structures observed experimentally can be found computationally, there is no convincing correlation with the experimental observations when the computed results are compared with a large set of supershot data. We also describe both the ideal and resistive stability properties of TFIR equilibria near the transition to the second region. It is shown that the highest β plasmas, although stable to infinite-n ideal ballooning modes, can be unstable to the so called ''infernal'' modes associated with small shear. The sensitivity of these results to the assumed pressure and current density profiles is discussed. Finally, we describe results from two collaborative studies with PPPL. The first involves exploratory studies of the role of the 1/1 mode in tokamaks and, secondly, a study of sawtooth stabilization using ICRF
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1990-01-01
This document summarizes progress made on the research of high beta and second region transport and stability. In the area second stability region studies we report on an investigation of the possibility of second region access in the center of TFTR ''supershots.'' The instabilities found may coincide with experimental observation. Significant progress has been made on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies profiles were taken from the TRANSP transport analysis code which analyzes experimental data. Invoking flattening of the pressure profile on mode rational surfaces causes tearing modes to persist into the experimental range of interest. Further, the experimental observation of the modes seems to be consistent with the predictions of the MHD model. In addition, code development in several areas has proceeded
Power system stability modelling, analysis and control
Sallam, Abdelhay A
2015-01-01
This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the subject from both a physical and mathematical perspective and covers a range of topics including modelling, computation of load flow in the transmission grid, stability analysis under both steady-state and disturbed conditions, and appropriate controls to enhance stability.
MHD stability analysis of helical system plasmas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakamura, Yuji
2000-01-01
Several topics of the MHD stability studies in helical system plasmas are reviewed with respect to the linear and ideal modes mainly. Difference of the method of the MHD stability analysis in helical system plasmas from that in tokamak plasmas is emphasized. Lack of the cyclic (symmetric) coordinate makes an analysis more difficult. Recent topic about TAE modes in a helical system is also described briefly. (author)
Truck Roll Stability Data Collection and Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stevens, SS
2001-07-02
this database, instrumented vehicles would not need roadside beacons. The speed, acceleration, and roll stability of the vehicle could be determined prior to entering a curve, and a warning issued, if appropriate, for curves that have been characterized in the database. Thus, the analysis indicates that the data can be effectively used to provide a timely warning of rollover risk.
Jaya, A. I.; Lestari, A. D.; Ratianingsih, R.; Puspitasari, J. W.
2018-03-01
Obesity is found in 90% of the world's patients with a type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) diagnosis. If it is not being treatment, the disease advances to a metabolic syndrome related to some atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. In this study, a mathematical model was constructed that represent the prognosis of type 2 DM. The prognosis is started from the transition of vulnerable people to overweight and obese. The advanced prognosis makes the type 2 DM sufferer become a metabolic syndrome. The model has no disease-free critical point, while the implicit endemic critical point is guaranteed for some requirements. The analysis of the critical point stability, by Jacobian matrix and Routh Hurwitz criteria, requires a parameter interval that identified from the characteristic polynomial. The requirements show that we have to pay attention to the transition rate of overweight to obese, more over the transition rate of obese to type 2 DM. The simulations show that the unstable condition of type 2 DM is easier to achieve because of the tightness of the parameter stability interval.
SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY
German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.
2011-01-01
This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043
Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje
2014-07-01
This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
SUPERVISION OF CREDIT INSTITUTIONS SIGNIFICANT RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
LUCIAN-ION MEDAR
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Financial stability of Romanian banking system is determined by the constant supervision of credit institutions significant risks. Accession of Romania to Union Banking requires the signing of a linked protocol between the central bank and European Central Bank regarding prudential supervision to ensure financial stability. This means that from the next year, the central bank will impose a new supervision of credit institutions in our country. And especially to those credit institutions that do not fall under European supervisors, according to the procedures of the ECB. Through this study we propose to specify the main elements of management of significant risks to ensure financial stability.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Niehaus, F.
1988-01-01
In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)
Stability analysis by ERATO code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsunematsu, Toshihide; Takeda, Tatsuoki; Matsuura, Toshihiko; Azumi, Masafumi; Kurita, Gen-ichi
1979-12-01
Problems in MHD stability calculations by ERATO code are described; which concern convergence property of results, equilibrium codes, and machine optimization of ERATO code. It is concluded that irregularity on a convergence curve is not due to a fault of the ERATO code itself but due to inappropriate choice of the equilibrium calculation meshes. Also described are a code to calculate an equilibrium as a quasi-inverse problem and a code to calculate an equilibrium as a result of a transport process. Optimization of the code with respect to I/O operations reduced both CPU time and I/O time considerably. With the FACOM230-75 APU/CPU multiprocessor system, the performance is about 6 times as high as with the FACOM230-75 CPU, showing the effectiveness of a vector processing computer for the kind of MHD computations. This report is a summary of the material presented at the ERATO workshop 1979(ORNL), supplemented with some details. (author)
Oxidation stability and risk evaluation of biodiesel
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hoshino Takashi
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This review describes oxidation and thermal stability and hazardous possibility of biodiesel by auto-oxidation. As it can be distributed using today’s infrastructure biodisel production has increased especially in the European Union. Biodiesel has many surpassing properties as an automotive fuel. Biodiesel is considered safer than diesel fuel because of the high flash point, but it has oxygen and double bond(s. Fatty acid methyl esters are more sensitive to oxidative degradation than fossil diesel fuel. The ability of producing peroxides is rather high, therefore we should care of handling of biodiesel.
Information Security Risk Analysis
Peltier, Thomas R
2010-01-01
Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.
Stability analysis of free piston Stirling engines
Bégot, Sylvie; Layes, Guillaume; Lanzetta, François; Nika, Philippe
2013-03-01
This paper presents a stability analysis of a free piston Stirling engine. The model and the detailed calculation of pressures losses are exposed. Stability of the machine is studied by the observation of the eigenvalues of the model matrix. Model validation based on the comparison with NASA experimental results is described. The influence of operational and construction parameters on performance and stability issues is exposed. The results show that most parameters that are beneficial for machine power seem to induce irregular mechanical characteristics with load, suggesting that self-sustained oscillations could be difficult to maintain and control.
Stability Analysis of the Embankment Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G.S. Gopalakrishna
2009-01-01
Full Text Available In analysis of embankment model affected by dynamic force, employment of shaking table is a scientific way in assessment of earthquake behavior. This work focused on saturated loose sandy foundation and enbankment. The results generated through the pore pressure sensors indicated pore water pressure playing main role in creation of liquefaction and stability of the system, and also revealed deformation, settlement, liquefaction intensity and time stability of system in direct correlation with the strength and characteristics of soil. One of the economical methods in stabilization of soil foundation is improvement of some part soil foundation.
Stability analysis of zigzag boron nitride nanoribbons
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rai, Hari Mohan, E-mail: rai.2208@gmail.com; Late, Ravikiran; Saxena, Shailendra K.; Kumar, Rajesh; Sagdeo, Pankaj R. [Indian Institute of Technology, Indore –452017 (India); Jaiswal, Neeraj K. [Discipline of Physics, PDPM- Indian Institute of Information Technology, Design and Manufacturing, Jabalpur – 482005 (India); Srivastava, Pankaj [Computational Nanoscience and Technology Lab. (CNTL), ABV- Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management, Gwalior – 474015 (India)
2015-05-15
We have explored the structural stability of bare and hydrogenated zigzag boron nitride nanoribbons (ZBNNRs). In order to investigate the structural stability, we calculate the cohesive energy for bare, one-edge and both edges H-terminated ZBNNRs with different widths. It is found that the ZBNNRs with width Nz=8 are energetically more favorable than the lower-width counterparts (Nz<8). Bare ZBNNRs have been found energetically most stable as compared to the edge terminated ribbons. Our analysis reveals that the structural stability is a function of ribbon-width and it is not affected significantly by the type of edge-passivation (one-edge or both-edges)
Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu
2013-01-01
fed induction generator has been established. Wind penetration variation and multiple stochastic factors of power systems have been considered. The process of transient stability risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method has been described and a comprehensive risk indicator has been proposed......Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....
Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.
Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M
2011-10-01
In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Linear stability analysis of heated parallel channels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nourbakhsh, H.P.; Isbin, H.S.
1982-01-01
An analyis is presented of thermal hydraulic stability of flow in parallel channels covering the range from inlet subcooling to exit superheat. The model is based on a one-dimensional drift velocity formulation of the two phase flow conservation equations. The system of equations is linearized by assuming small disturbances about the steady state. The dynamic response of the system to an inlet flow perturbation is derived yielding the characteristic equation which predicts the onset of instabilities. A specific application is carried out for homogeneous and regional uniformly heated systems. The particular case of equal characteristic frequencies of two-phase and single phase vapor region is studied in detail. The D-partition method and the Mikhailov stability criterion are used for determining the marginal stability boundary. Stability predictions from the present analysis are compared with the experimental data from the solar test facility. 8 references
Component of the risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martinez, I.; Campon, G.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk
Habitat stability, predation risk and 'memory syndromes'.
Dalesman, S; Rendle, A; Dall, S R X
2015-05-27
Habitat stability and predation pressure are thought to be major drivers in the evolutionary maintenance of behavioural syndromes, with trait covariance only occurring within specific habitats. However, animals also exhibit behavioural plasticity, often through memory formation. Memory formation across traits may be linked, with covariance in memory traits (memory syndromes) selected under particular environmental conditions. This study tests whether the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis, demonstrates consistency among memory traits ('memory syndrome') related to threat avoidance and foraging. We used eight populations originating from three different habitat types: i) laboratory populations (stable habitat, predator-free); ii) river populations (fairly stable habitat, fish predation); and iii) ditch populations (unstable habitat, invertebrate predation). At a population level, there was a negative relationship between memories related to threat avoidance and food selectivity, but no consistency within habitat type. At an individual level, covariance between memory traits was dependent on habitat. Laboratory populations showed no covariance among memory traits, whereas river populations showed a positive correlation between food memories, and ditch populations demonstrated a negative relationship between threat memory and food memories. Therefore, selection pressures among habitats appear to act independently on memory trait covariation at an individual level and the average response within a population.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Preyssl, C.
1986-01-01
Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)
A stability analysis of ventilated boiling channels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Podowski, M.Z.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.
1986-01-01
A mathematical model has been developed for the linear stability analysis of a system of ventilated parallel boiling channels. This model accounts for subcooled boiling, an arbitrary heat flux distribution, distributed and local hydraulic losses, heated wall dynamics, slip flow, turbulent mixing and arbitrary flow paths for transverse ventilation. The digital computer program MAZDA-NF was written for numerical evaluation of the mathematical model. Comparison of MAZDA-NF results with those obtained form both a closed form analytical solution and experiment, showed good agreement. A parametric study revealed that such phenomena as subcooled boiling, the transverse coupling between channels (due to cross-flow and mixing) and power skewing can have a significant impact on predicted stability margins. An analysis of an advanced BWR fuel, of the ASEA-ATOM SVEA design, has indicated that transverse ventilation may considerably improve channel stability. (orig.)
Analysis of Chatter Stability in Facing
Kebdani, S.; Sahli, A.; Rahmani, O.; Boutchicha, D.; Belarbi, A.
This study attempts to develop a chatter model for predicting chatter stability conditions in hard turning. A linear model is developed by introducing non-uniform load distribution on a tool tip to account for the flank wear effect. Stability analysis based on the root locus method and the harmonic balance method is conducted to determine a critical stability parameter. To validate the model, a series of experiment is carried out to determine the stability limits as well as certain characteristic parameters for facing and straight turning. Chatter in hard turning has the feature that the critical stability limits increase very rapidly when the cutting speed is higher than 13 rev sec-1 for all feed directions. The main contributions of the study are threefold. First, chatter-free cutting conditions are predicted and can be used as a guideline for designing tools and machines. Second, the characteristics of chatter in hard turning, which is observed for the first time, helps to broaden our physical understanding of the interactions between the tool and the workpiece in hard turning. Third, experimental stability limits for different flank wear can contribute to lead more reasonable ways to consider the flank wear effect in chatter models of hard turning. Based on these contributions, the proposed linear chatter model will support to improve the productivity in many manufacturing processes. In addition, the chatter experimental data will be useful to develop other chatter models in hard turning.
Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David
2015-01-01
Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...
Stability analysis of cylinders with circular cutouts
Almroth, B. O.; Brogan, F. A.; Marlowe, M. B.
1973-01-01
The stability of axially compressed cylinders with circular cutouts is analyzed numerically. An extension of the finite-difference method is used which removes the requirement that displacement components be defined in the directions of the grid lines. The results of this nonlinear analysis are found to be in good agreement with earlier experimental results.
Pyrosequencing Based Microbial Community Analysis of Stabilized Mine Soils
Park, J. E.; Lee, B. T.; Son, A.
2015-12-01
Heavy metals leached from exhausted mines have been causing severe environmental problems in nearby soils and groundwater. Environmental mitigation was performed based on the heavy metal stabilization using Calcite and steel slag in Korea. Since the soil stabilization only temporarily immobilizes the contaminants to soil matrix, the potential risk of re-leaching heavy metal still exists. Therefore the follow-up management of stabilized soils and the corresponding evaluation methods are required to avoid the consequent contamination from the stabilized soils. In this study, microbial community analysis using pyrosequencing was performed for assessing the potential leaching of the stabilized soils. As a result of rarefaction curve and Chao1 and Shannon indices, the stabilized soil has shown lower richness and diversity as compared to non-contaminated negative control. At the phyla level, as the degree of contamination increases, most of phyla decreased with only exception of increased proteobacteria. Among proteobacteria, gamma-proteobacteria increased against the heavy metal contamination. At the species level, Methylobacter tundripaludum of gamma-proteobacteria showed the highest relative portion of microbial community, indicating that methanotrophs may play an important role in either solubilization or immobilization of heavy metals in stabilized soils.
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-01-01
This document describes ideal and resistive MHD studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Significant progress is reported on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies initial profiles were taken from the TRANSP code which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. When an ad hoc method of removing the finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is implemented it is shown that there is substantial agreement between MHD stability computation and experiment. In particular, the mode structures observed experimentally are consistent with the predictions of the resistive MHD model. We also report on resistive stability near the transition to the second region in TFTR. Tearing modes associated with a nearby infernal mode may explain the increase in MHD activity seen in high beta supershots and which impede the realization of Q∼1. We also report on a collaborative study with PPPL involving sawtooth stabilization with ICRF
Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity
Wölbert, E.M.; Riedl, A.M.
2013-01-01
To accurately predict behavior economists need reliable measures of individual time preferences and attitudes toward risk and typically need to assume stability of these characteristics over time and across decision domains. We test the reliability of two choice tasks for eliciting discount rates,
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de
1996-01-01
The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)
Stability analysis of rubblemound breakwater using ANN
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Manjunath, Y.R.; Kim, D.H.
relation is not clear. In more practical terms networks are non-linear modeling tools and they can be used to model complex relationship between input and output system. Earlier applications of neural networks for stability analysis of rubble mound.... WORKING PRINCIPLE OF NEURAL NETWORK The feed forward neural networks have ability to approximate any continuous function or complex phenomena into a simple one. The working of neural network as described below. A feed forward neural network as shown...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uppuluri, V.R.R.
1979-01-01
Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion
Nonlinear physical systems spectral analysis, stability and bifurcations
Kirillov, Oleg N
2013-01-01
Bringing together 18 chapters written by leading experts in dynamical systems, operator theory, partial differential equations, and solid and fluid mechanics, this book presents state-of-the-art approaches to a wide spectrum of new and challenging stability problems.Nonlinear Physical Systems: Spectral Analysis, Stability and Bifurcations focuses on problems of spectral analysis, stability and bifurcations arising in the nonlinear partial differential equations of modern physics. Bifurcations and stability of solitary waves, geometrical optics stability analysis in hydro- and magnetohydrodynam
Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk
Koratzinos, M
2011-01-01
The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.
2000-01-01
The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alverbro, Karin
2010-01-01
Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects
Stability Analysis and Stabilization of Miduk Heap Leaching Structure, Iran
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehdi Amini
2013-06-01
Full Text Available To construct copper heap leaching structures, a stepped heap of ore is placed over an isolated sloping surface and then washed with sulphuric acid. The isolated bed of such a heap consists of some natural and geosynthetic layers. Shear strength parameters between these layers are low, so they form the possible sliding surfaces of the heaps. Economic and environmental considerations call for studying such slides. In this study, firstly, results of the laboratory tests carried on the materials of the heap leaching structures bed are presented. Then, the instability mechanisms of such structures are investigated and proper approaches are summarized for their stabilization. Finally, stability of the Miduk copper heap is evaluated as a case history, and appropriate approaches and their effects are discussed for its stabilization.
Airfoil stall interpreted through linear stability analysis
Busquet, Denis; Juniper, Matthew; Richez, Francois; Marquet, Olivier; Sipp, Denis
2017-11-01
Although airfoil stall has been widely investigated, the origin of this phenomenon, which manifests as a sudden drop of lift, is still not clearly understood. In the specific case of static stall, multiple steady solutions have been identified experimentally and numerically around the stall angle. We are interested here in investigating the stability of these steady solutions so as to first model and then control the dynamics. The study is performed on a 2D helicopter blade airfoil OA209 at low Mach number, M 0.2 and high Reynolds number, Re 1.8 ×106 . Steady RANS computation using a Spalart-Allmaras model is coupled with continuation methods (pseudo-arclength and Newton's method) to obtain steady states for several angles of incidence. The results show one upper branch (high lift), one lower branch (low lift) connected by a middle branch, characterizing an hysteresis phenomenon. A linear stability analysis performed around these equilibrium states highlights a mode responsible for stall, which starts with a low frequency oscillation. A bifurcation scenario is deduced from the behaviour of this mode. To shed light on the nonlinear behavior, a low order nonlinear model is created with the same linear stability behavior as that observed for that airfoil.
Stability analysis of cylindrical Vlasov equilibria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Short, R.W.
1979-01-01
A general method of stability analysis is described which may be applied to a large class of such problems, namely those which are described dynamically by the Vlasov equation, and geometrically by cylindrical symmetry. The method is presented for the simple case of the Vlasov-Poisson (electrostatic) equations, and the results are applied to a calculation of the lower-hybrid-drift instability in a plasma with a rigid rotor distribution function. The method is extended to the full Vlasov-Maxwell (electromagnetic) equations. These results are applied to a calculation of the instability of the extraordinary electromagnetic mode in a relativistic E-layer interacting with a background plasma
Stability analysis of cylindrical Vlasov equilibria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Short, R.W.
1979-01-01
A general method of stability analysis is described which may be applied to a large class of such problems, namely those which are described dynamically by the Vlasov equation, and geometrically by clindrical symmetry. The method is presented for the simple case of the Vlasov-Poisson (electrostatic) equations, and the results are applied to a calculation of the lower-hybrid-drift instability in a plasma with a rigid rotor distribution function. The method is extended to the full Vlasov-Maxwell (electromagnetic) equations. These results are applied to a calculation of the instability of the extraordinary electromagnetic mode in a relativistic E-layer interacting with a background plasma
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liang QU
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Icing is one of the crucial factors that could pose great threat to flight safety, and thus research on stability and stability region of aircraft safety under icing conditions is significant for control and flight. Nonlinear dynamical equations and models of aerodynamic coefficients of an aircraft are set up in this paper to study the stability and stability region of the aircraft under an icing condition. Firstly, the equilibrium points of the iced aircraft system are calculated and analyzed based on the theory of differential equation stability. Secondly, according to the correlation theory about equilibrium points and the stability region, this paper estimates the multidimensional stability region of the aircraft, based on which the stability regions before and after icing are compared. Finally, the results are confirmed by the time history analysis. The results can give a reference for stability analysis and envelope protection of the nonlinear system of an iced aircraft.
Vehicle rollover risk and electronic stability control systems.
MacLennan, P A; Marshall, T; Griffin, R; Purcell, M; McGwin, G; Rue, L W
2008-06-01
Electronic stability control (ESC) systems were developed to reduce motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) caused by loss of control. Introduced in Europe in 1995 and in the USA in 1996, ESC is designed to improve vehicle lateral stability by electronically detecting and automatically assisting drivers in unfavorable situations. To examine the relationship between vehicle rollover risk and presence of ESC using a large national database of MVCs. A retrospective cohort study for the period 1995 through 2006 was carried out using data obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. All passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs)/vans of model year 1996 and later were eligible. Vehicle ESC (unavailable, optional, standard) was determined on the basis of make, model, and model year. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated to compare rollover risk by vehicle ESC group. For all crashes, vehicles equipped with standard ESC had decreased risk of rollover (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.77) compared with vehicles with ESC unavailable. The association was consistent for single-vehicle MVCs (RR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.82); passenger cars had decreased rollover risk (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12), but SUVs/vans had a more dramatically decreased risk (RR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.61). This study supports previous results showing ESC to be effective in reducing the risk of rollover. ESC is more effective in SUVs/vans for rollovers related to single-vehicle MVCs.
Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.
Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J
2010-04-01
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.
Voltage stability analysis using a modified continuation load flow ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper addresses the rising problem of identifying the voltage stability limits of load buses in a power system and how to optimally place capacitor banks for voltage stability improvement. This paper uses the concept of the continuation power flow analysis used in voltage stability analysis. It uses the modified ...
BWR stability analysis at Brookhaven National Laboratory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wulff, W.; Cheng, H.S.; Mallen, A.N.; Rohatgi, U.S.
1991-01-01
Following the unexpected, but safely terminated, power and flow oscillations in the LaSalle-2 Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) on March 9, 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and of Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) requested that the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) carry out BWR stability analyses, centered around fourteen specific questions. Ten of the fourteen questions address BWR stability issues in general and are dealt with in this paper. The other four questions address local, out-of-phase oscillations and matters of instrumentation; they fall outside the scope of the work reported here. It was the purpose of the work documented in this report to answer ten of the fourteen NRC-stipulated questions. Nine questions are answered by analyzing the LaSalle-2 instability and related BWR transients with the BNL Engineering Plant Analyzer (EPA) and by performing an uncertainty assessment of the EPA predictions. The tenth question is answered on the basis of first principles. The ten answers are summarized
Nonparallel linear stability analysis of unconfined vortices
Herrada, M. A.; Barrero, A.
2004-10-01
Parabolized stability equations [F. P. Bertolotti, Th. Herbert, and P. R. Spalart, J. Fluid. Mech. 242, 441 (1992)] have been used to study the stability of a family of swirling jets at high Reynolds numbers whose velocity and pressure fields decay far from the axis as rm-2 and r2(m-2), respectively [M. Pérez-Saborid, M. A. Herrada, A. Gómez-Barea, and A. Barrero, J. Fluid. Mech. 471, 51 (2002)]; r is the radial distance and m is a real number in the interval 0
The Analysis Stability of Anchor Retaining Wall
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benamara, F. Z.; Belabed, L
2011-01-01
The construction of anchored retaining walls reach every day in the field of Civil Engineering especially in public works. Their dimensioning and stability are the axes of research for geotechnical. The rule is to reduce the active forces of the slide and increase the effective normal stress on the rupture surface. So that, we anchored tied-back (constituted by steel cables) in the stable ground located under the failure surface and we apply at the top a traction force. This effort can be distributed over the ground surface by means of small plates or massive reinforced concrete. The study of the stability of anchored retaining wall was also performed by using software GEO4. Many cases can be solved using analytical solutions available in the group GEO4 program, but for our standard model solution studied analytically proved unsatisfactory so we used a numerical analysis based on the method of finite element in this program. The results obtained by numerical study were interpreted to identify the precision numerical predictions. Moreover these methods were useful and economics in the realization of reinforced slopes by tied-buck. (author)
International Conference on Risk Analysis
Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh
2015-01-01
This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.
ANALYSIS AND OPTIMISATION OF DYNAMIC STABILITY OF MOBILE WORKING MACHINES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter BIGOŠ
2014-09-01
Full Text Available This paper describes an investigation of the dynamic stability, which is specified for the mobile working machines. There are presented the basic theoretical principles of the stability theory together with an introduction of two illustrative examples of the dynamic stability analysis.
MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anass BAYAGA
2010-07-01
Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
David, A.
1992-01-01
This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements
Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan
2018-02-01
Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.
Random matrix theory filters in portfolio optimisation: A stability and risk assessment
Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.
2008-07-01
Random matrix theory (RMT) filters, applied to covariance matrices of financial returns, have recently been shown to offer improvements to the optimisation of stock portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on the realised portfolio risk, and on the stability of the filtered covariance matrix, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We propose an extension to an existing RMT filter, (based on Krzanowski stability), which is observed to reduce risk and increase stability, when compared to other RMT filters tested. We also study a scheme for filtering the covariance matrix directly, as opposed to the standard method of filtering correlation, where the latter is found to lower the realised risk, on average, by up to 6.7%. We consider both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices in our analysis, and observe that the overall best method out-of-sample was that of the exponentially weighted covariance, with our Krzanowski stability-based filter applied to the correlation matrix. We also find that the optimal out-of-sample decay factors, for both filtered and unfiltered forecasts, were higher than those suggested by Riskmetrics [J.P. Morgan, Reuters, Riskmetrics technical document, Technical Report, 1996. http://www.riskmetrics.com/techdoc.html], with those for the latter approaching a value of α=1. In conclusion, RMT filtering reduced the realised risk, on average, and in the majority of cases when tested out-of-sample, but increased the realised risk on a marked number of individual days-in some cases more than doubling it.
Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Stability in Waves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søborg, Anders Veldt
2004-01-01
exhibit sufficient characteristics with respect to slope at zero heel (GM value), maximum leverarm, positive range of stability and area below the leverarm curve. The rule-based requirements to calm water leverarm curves are entirely based on experience obtained from vessels in operation and recorded......The assessment of a ship's intact stability is traditionally based on a semi-empirical deterministic concept that evaluates the characteristics of ship's calm water restoring leverarm curves. Today the ship is considered safe with respect to dynamic stability if its calm water leverarm curves...... accidents in the past. The rules therefore only leaves little room for evaluation and improvement of safety of a ship's dynamic stability. A few studies have evaluated the probability of ship stability loss in waves using Monte Carlo simulations. However, since this probability may be in the order of 10...
Stability of fundamental couplings: A global analysis
Martins, C. J. A. P.; Pinho, A. M. M.
2017-01-01
Astrophysical tests of the stability of fundamental couplings are becoming an increasingly important probe of new physics. Motivated by the recent availability of new and stronger constraints we update previous works testing the consistency of measurements of the fine-structure constant α and the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ =mp/me (mostly obtained in the optical/ultraviolet) with combined measurements of α , μ and the proton gyromagnetic ratio gp (mostly in the radio band). We carry out a global analysis of all available data, including the 293 archival measurements of Webb et al. and 66 more recent dedicated measurements, and constraining both time and spatial variations. While nominally the full data sets show a slight statistical preference for variations of α and μ (at up to two standard deviations), we also find several inconsistencies between different subsets, likely due to hidden systematics and implying that these statistical preferences need to be taken with caution. The statistical evidence for a spatial dipole in the values of α is found at the 2.3 sigma level. Forthcoming studies with facilities such as ALMA and ESPRESSO should clarify these issues.
Remarks on boiling water reactor stability analysis. Pt. 2. Stability monitoring
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lange, Carsten; Hennig, Dieter; Hurtado, Antonio [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Chair of Hydrogen and Nuclear Energy; Schuster, Roland [Kernkraftwerk Brunsbuettel GmbH und Co. oHG, Brunsbuettel (Germany); Lukas, Bernard [EnBW Kernkraft GmbH, Philippsburg (Germany). Kernkraftwerk Philippsburg; Aguirre, Carlos [Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt AG, Aargau (Switzerland)
2012-12-15
In part 1 of this article we explained the partly relative complex solution manifold of the differential equations describing the stability behaviour of a BWR, in particular the coexistence of different types of solutions, such as the coexistence of unstable limit cycles and stable fixed points are of interest from the operational safety point of view. The part 2 is devoted to the surveillance of the stability behaviour. We summarize some stability monitoring methods and suggest to support stability tests by RAM-ROM analyses in order to reveal in advance the stability 'landscape' of the BWR in a parameter region high sensitive for appearing of linear unstable states. The analysis of an especial stability test, performed at NPP Leibstadt (KKL), makes it clear that the measurement results can only be interpreted by application of bifurcation analysis. (orig.)
Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam
Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.
2009-01-01
In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hennig, D.; Nechvatal, L.
1996-09-01
The report describes the PSI stability analysis methodology and the validation of this methodology based on the international OECD/NEA BWR stability benchmark task. In the frame of this work, the stability properties of some operation points of the NPP Ringhals 1 have been analysed and compared with the experimental results. (author) figs., tabs., 45 refs
CAREM-25 Steam Generator Stability Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rabiti, A.; Delmastro, D.
2003-01-01
In this work the stability of a once-through CAREM-25 steam generator is analyzed.A fix nodes numerical model, that allows the modelling of the liquid, two-phase and superheated steam zones, is implemented.This model was checked against a mobile finite elements model under saturated steam conditions at the channel exit and a good agreement was obtained.Finally the stability of a CAREM steam generator is studied and the range of in let restrictions that a assure the system stability is analyzed
Angle Stability Analysis for Voltage-Controlled Converters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lin, Hengwei; Jia, Chenxi; Guerrero, Josep M.
2017-01-01
a criterion to analyze the quasi-steady angle stability and the direct current (DC) side stability for VSCs. The operating limit and the angle instability mechanism are revealed, which is generally applicable to the voltage-controlled converters. During the analysis, the influence of the parameters on angle...... stability is studied. Further, the difference on instability mechanism between power electronic converters and synchronous generators are explained in detail. Finally, experiment results with corrective actions verify the analysis....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nauta, Maarten
In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...
Risk analysis: opening the process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.
1998-01-01
This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)
Stability analysis of impulsive parabolic complex networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang Jinliang, E-mail: wangjinliang1984@yahoo.com.cn [Science and Technology on Aircraft Control Laboratory, School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, XueYuan Road, No. 37, HaiDian District, Beijing 100191 (China); Wu Huaining [Science and Technology on Aircraft Control Laboratory, School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, XueYuan Road, No. 37, HaiDian District, Beijing 100191 (China)
2011-11-15
Highlights: > Two impulsive parabolic complex network models are proposed. > The global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. > The robust global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. - Abstract: In the present paper, two kinds of impulsive parabolic complex networks (IPCNs) are considered. In the first one, all nodes have the same time-varying delay. In the second one, different nodes have different time-varying delays. Using the Lyapunov functional method combined with the inequality techniques, some global exponential stability criteria are derived for the IPCNs. Furthermore, several robust global exponential stability conditions are proposed to take uncertainties in the parameters of the IPCNs into account. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here.
Stability analysis of impulsive parabolic complex networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Jinliang; Wu Huaining
2011-01-01
Highlights: → Two impulsive parabolic complex network models are proposed. → The global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. → The robust global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. - Abstract: In the present paper, two kinds of impulsive parabolic complex networks (IPCNs) are considered. In the first one, all nodes have the same time-varying delay. In the second one, different nodes have different time-varying delays. Using the Lyapunov functional method combined with the inequality techniques, some global exponential stability criteria are derived for the IPCNs. Furthermore, several robust global exponential stability conditions are proposed to take uncertainties in the parameters of the IPCNs into account. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here.
Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kenley, C.R.; Brown-van Hoozer, S.A.
1997-01-01
A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks
Stability Analysis for HIFiRE Experiments
Li, Fei; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; White, Jeffery A.; Kimmel, Roger; Adamczak, David; Borg, Matthew; Stanfield, Scott; Smith, Mark S.
2012-01-01
The HIFiRE-1 flight experiment provided a valuable database pertaining to boundary layer transition over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone model from supersonic to hypersonic Mach numbers, and a range of Reynolds numbers and angles of attack. This paper reports selected findings from the ongoing computational analysis of the measured in-flight transition behavior. Transition during the ascent phase at nearly zero degree angle of attack is dominated by second mode instabilities except in the vicinity of the cone meridian where a roughness element was placed midway along the length of the cone. The growth of first mode instabilities is found to be weak at all trajectory points analyzed from the ascent phase. For times less than approximately 18.5 seconds into the flight, the peak amplification ratio for second mode disturbances is sufficiently small because of the lower Mach numbers at earlier times, so that the transition behavior inferred from the measurements is attributed to an unknown physical mechanism, potentially related to step discontinuities in surface height near the locations of a change in the surface material. Based on the time histories of temperature and/or heat flux at transducer locations within the aft portion of the cone, the onset of transition correlated with a linear N-factor, based on parabolized stability equations, of approximately 13.5. Due to the large angles of attack during the re-entry phase, crossflow instability may play a significant role in transition. Computations also indicate the presence of pronounced crossflow separation over a significant portion of the trajectory segment that is relevant to transition analysis. The transition behavior during this re-entry segment of HIFiRE-1 flight shares some common features with the predicted transition front along the elliptic cone shaped HIFiRE-5 flight article, which was designed to provide hypersonic transition data for a fully 3D geometric configuration. To compare and contrast the
Management of Risks to Financial Stability from the Perspective of a Central Bank
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriela Lățea
2016-11-01
Full Text Available This article investigates the main issues pertaining to a central bank’s concerns relative to financial stability, as seen from the perspective of risks, sources and key ways of action. At macroeconomic level, central banks need to identify and monitor the risk that market operators face payment default towards local entities (companies, households, government and/or foreign creditors. Moreover, central banks entrusted with supervisory and licensing tasks are also carefully examining the various risks threatening banks, be they credit risk, liquidity risk, market risk, or risks associated with exposure concentration and distribution. On financial markets, prices, profit margins, interest rates, net exposure to certain financial instruments must be monitored to be able to identify build - ups of risks, stress and significant drawbacks to its adequate functioning. Adding to these is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA1, which involves oversight and assessment of risks in various sectors as well as of the needs to counter them, by drawing on the real market data to identify the probability of default in one sector or another and the impact on other sectors in an integrated manner.
Advances in probabilistic risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hardung von Hardung, H.
1982-01-01
Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de
Linear stability analysis of supersonic axisymmetric jets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhenhua Wan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Stabilities of supersonic jets are examined with different velocities, momentum thicknesses, and core temperatures. Amplification rates of instability waves at inlet are evaluated by linear stability theory (LST. It is found that increased velocity and core temperature would increase amplification rates substantially and such influence varies for different azimuthal wavenumbers. The most unstable modes in thin momentum thickness cases usually have higher frequencies and azimuthal wavenumbers. Mode switching is observed for low azimuthal wavenumbers, but it appears merely in high velocity cases. In addition, the results provided by linear parabolized stability equations show that the mean-flow divergence affects the spatial evolution of instability waves greatly. The most amplified instability waves globally are sometimes found to be different from that given by LST.
Introduction of the risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campon, G.; Martinez, I.
2013-01-01
An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murdock, R.V.; Gulliver, J.S.
1991-01-01
Traditionally, economic feasibility studies performed for potential hydropower plant sites have included either no uncertainty or at best an ad hoc value associated with estimated benefits. However, formal methods for analyzing uncertainty do exist and have been outlined in the past. An application of these methods is demonstrated through conversion of a hydropower survey program, HYFEAS, to run on LOTUS 1-2-3, using the add-in software package RISK. In this paper the program principals are outlined and a case study of it's application to a hydropower site is presented
Stability analysis of artificial synthetic overweight elements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou Jian
1990-01-01
Stability of artificial synthetic overweight elements has been analysed theoretically using a diagram of nuclear stability. It is indicated that overweight nucleus can be synthesized only when a certain amount of neutrons participate simultaneously in the synthesis. The maximum number of protons in overweight elements is 1002. The proton number of 'extreme overweight' elements of which the neutron star is possibly composed is in the range from 326 to 1002. It is expected that the mass number of the stable overweight elements with proton number 114 is in the range from 299 to 315
An analysis for crack layer stability
Sehanobish, K.; Botsis, J.; Moet, A.; Chudnovsky, A.
1986-01-01
The problem of uncontrolled crack propagation and crack arrest is considered with respect to crack layer (CL) translational stability. CL propagation is determined by the difference between the energy release rate and the amount of energy required for material transformation, and necessary and sufficient conditions for CL instability are derived. CL propagation in polystyrene is studied for two cases. For the case of remotely applied fixed load fatigue, the sufficient condition of instability is shown to be met before the necessary condition, and the necessary condition controls the stability. For the fixed displacement case, neither of the instability conditions are met, and CL propagation remains stable, resulting in crack arrest.
Methods of stability analysis in nonlinear mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.; Gabella, W.; Ecklund, K.
1989-01-01
We review our recent work on methods to study stability in nonlinear mechanics, especially for the problems of particle accelerators, and compare our ideals to those of other authors. We emphasize methods that (1) show promise as practical design tools, (2) are effective when the nonlinearity is large, and (3) have a strong theoretical basis. 24 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs
Postural Stability Analysis with Inertial Measurement Units in Alzheimer's Disease
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miguel F. Gago
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Background: The cause of frequent falls in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD is still not well understood. Nevertheless, balance control and sensory organization are known to be critical for moving safely and adapting to the environment. Methods: We evaluated postural stability in 20 AD patients (11 fallers and 9 nonfallers and 16 healthy controls with an inertial measurement unit (triaxial accelerometers and gyroscopes attached to the center of mass (COM in different balance conditions (Romberg on flat surface and frontward/backward-inclined surface, with or without visual suppression in a motor lab. Results: In AD patients, the group of fallers showed a different kinetic pattern of postural stability characterized by higher vulnerability to visual suppression, higher total/maximal displacement and a mediolateral/anteroposterior range of sway, and a consequent need for more corrections of COM pitch and roll angles. Conclusion: Further studies are needed to consolidate the normative values of the discriminatory kinetic variables with the potential of inclusion in a multifactorial analysis of the risk of falls. Nevertheless, these results highlight signs of impairment of central postural control in AD, which may require early therapeutic intervention.
Stability Analysis for Car Following Model Based on Control Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meng Xiang-Pei; Li Zhi-Peng; Ge Hong-Xia
2014-01-01
Stability analysis is one of the key issues in car-following theory. The stability analysis with Lyapunov function for the two velocity difference car-following model (for short, TVDM) is conducted and the control method to suppress traffic congestion is introduced. Numerical simulations are given and results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)
Modeling, Stability Analysis and Active Stabilization of Multiple DC-Microgrids Clusters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shafiee, Qobad; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Vasquez, Juan Carlos
2014-01-01
), and more especially during interconnection with other MGs, creating dc MG clusters. This paper develops a small signal model for dc MGs from the control point of view, in order to study stability analysis and investigate effects of CPLs and line impedances between the MGs on stability of these systems....... This model can be also used to synthesis and study dynamics of control loops in dc MGs and also dc MG clusters. An active stabilization method is proposed to be implemented as a dc active power filter (APF) inside the MGs in order to not only increase damping of dc MGs at the presence of CPLs but also...... to improve their stability while connecting to the other MGs. Simulation results are provided to evaluate the developed models and demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed active stabilization technique....
Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang; Vossen, Georg; Thombansen, Ulrich
2016-01-01
A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.
Linear and nonlinear stability analysis, associated to experimental fast reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amorim, E.S. do; Moura Neto, C. de; Rosa, M.A.P.
1980-07-01
Phenomena associated to the physics of fast neutrons were analysed by linear and nonlinear Kinetics with arbitrary feedback. The theoretical foundations of linear kinetics and transfer functions aiming at the analysis of fast reactors stability, are established. These stability conditions were analitically proposed and investigated by digital and analogic programs. (E.G.) [pt
Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Nonlinear Dynamics, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany); Vossen, Georg [Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Chair for Applied Mathematics and Numerical Simulations, Reinarzstr.. 49, 47805 Krefeld (Germany); Thombansen, Ulrich [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Laser Technology, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany)
2016-06-08
A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.
Stability analysis in tachyonic potential chameleon cosmology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Farajollahi, H.; Salehi, A.; Tayebi, F.; Ravanpak, A.
2011-01-01
We study general properties of attractors for tachyonic potential chameleon scalar-field model which possess cosmological scaling solutions. An analytic formulation is given to obtain fixed points with a discussion on their stability. The model predicts a dynamical equation of state parameter with phantom crossing behavior for an accelerating universe. We constrain the parameters of the model by best fitting with the recent data-sets from supernovae and simulated data points for redshift drift experiment generated by Monte Carlo simulations
Stability analysis in tachyonic potential chameleon cosmology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Farajollahi, H.; Salehi, A.; Tayebi, F.; Ravanpak, A., E-mail: hosseinf@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: a.salehi@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: ftayebi@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: aravanpak@guilan.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Guilan, Rasht (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2011-05-01
We study general properties of attractors for tachyonic potential chameleon scalar-field model which possess cosmological scaling solutions. An analytic formulation is given to obtain fixed points with a discussion on their stability. The model predicts a dynamical equation of state parameter with phantom crossing behavior for an accelerating universe. We constrain the parameters of the model by best fitting with the recent data-sets from supernovae and simulated data points for redshift drift experiment generated by Monte Carlo simulations.
Stability analysis for downflow in heated channels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sampaio, P.A.B. de.
1985-01-01
Stability and flow distribution are analysed for downflow in heated channels. It is shown that at low flow rates instabilities associated with the buoyancy forces may appear. A computer code in FORTRAN language to determine downflow distribution among n heated channels is presented. The model used to calculate downflow distribution and the onset of instability is compared with experiments performed in a test section with two parallel channels. (Author) [pt
MHD stability analysis of ELMs in MAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saarelma, S; Hender, T C; Kirk, A; Meyer, H; Wilson, H R; Team, MAST
2007-01-01
In this paper, edge stability analyses of the MAST tokamak plasmas are presented. The analyses show that the experimental equilibrium prior to an edge localized mode (ELM) is unstable against very narrow peeling modes with low growth rate. When the edge pressure gradient becomes steeper, wider peeling-ballooning modes with larger growth rate become unstable. These modes are the likely triggers of ELMs. In the analyses the required pressure increase for destabilization is sensitive to how the X-point is modelled in the equilibrium reconstruction. A 'sharp' X-point approximation is more stable against the peeling-ballooning modes than a 'round' one. An experimental ELM-free single null plasma is significantly more stable against the peeling-ballooning modes than the double null plasma, but this is unlikely to be directly due to the single null geometry but rather due to the different plasma profiles. Sheared toroidal rotation is able to stabilize the peeling-ballooning modes. This suggests the following model for the ELM triggering: the rotation shear keeps the edge stable until the pressure gradient has sufficiently exceeded the stability boundary for the static plasma. When the mode becomes unstable, it starts to grow, ties the flux surfaces together and flattens the rotation profile. This further destabilizes the edge plasma leading to an ELM crash
STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimíra OSADSKÁ
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.
Debt Stabilization and Debt Mutualization in a Monetary Union with Endogenous Risk Premia
Engwerda, Jacob; van Aarle, B.; Weeren, A.J.T.M.
2015-01-01
In this paper we analyse debt stabilization in a monetary union that features endogenous risk premia. In particular, we analyse debt stabilization in two diametrically opposed regimes. In the first regime, the “national fiscal discipline regime”, financial markets impose sovereign risk premia based
Stability analysis of impulsive functional differential equations
Stamova, Ivanka
2009-01-01
This book is devoted to impulsive functional differential equations which are a natural generalization of impulsive ordinary differential equations (without delay) and of functional differential equations (without impulses). At the present time the qualitative theory of such equationsis under rapid development. After a presentation of the fundamental theory of existence, uniqueness and continuability of solutions, a systematic development of stability theory for that class of problems is given which makes the book unique. It addresses to a wide audience such as mathematicians, applied research
Stability analysis of host dynamics for hiv
Geetha, V.; Balamuralitharan, S.
2018-04-01
The phenomenon of disease modeling can be easily accomplished through mathematical framework. In this paper the transmission of disease in human is represented mathematically as a nonlinear system. We think about the components of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among the beginning periods of illness. Throughout this paper we have determined those logical representation of a three-compartmental HIV demonstrate for their stability evaluation. We tend to likewise explore the stimulating behavior of the model and acquire those Steady states for the disease-free and the endemic agreement. The framework can be evaluated by reproduction number R0. We additionally clarify the numerical recreation and their outcomes.
Advances in power system modelling, control and stability analysis
Milano, Federico
2016-01-01
Advances in Power System Modelling, Control and Stability Analysis captures the variety of new methodologies and technologies that are changing the way modern electric power systems are modelled, simulated and operated.
Genotype x environment interaction and stability analysis for yield ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
etc
2015-05-06
. Combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) for yield and yield components revealed highly significant .... yield stability among varieties, multi-location trials with ... Mean grain yield (kg/ha) of 17 Kabuli-type chickpea genotypes ...
stability analysis of ssss thin rectangular plate using multi
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
The stability analysis of all four edges simply supported (SSSS) thin ... average percentage difference of K – values from two previous works and the present study when compared with ... freedom eigen value problem of the elastic buckling of.
Stability Analysis of a Reaction-Diffusion System Modeling Atherogenesis
Ibragimov, Akif; Ritter, Laura; Walton, Jay R.
2010-01-01
This paper presents a linear, asymptotic stability analysis for a reaction-diffusionconvection system modeling atherogenesis, the initiation of atherosclerosis, as an inflammatory instability. Motivated by the disease paradigm articulated by Ross
Yield stability analysis of pearl millet hybrids in Nigeria
African Journals Online (AJOL)
hope&shola
2006-02-02
.] was ... Genotype x environment interaction was observed, a large component of which was accounted ... The importance of evaluating many potential genotypes .... Pooled analysis of variance for stability of grain yield (t/ha).
ORIGINAL ARTICLE Stability Analysis of Delayed Cournot Model in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
HP
and Lyapunov method of nonlinear stability analysis are employed. It is ascertained ... and the rival player makes decision without delay, it leads to instability of the dynamic system at ... phenomena such as economic growth, prediction and ...
Rohmer, Jeremy; Verdel, Thierry
2017-04-01
Uncertainty analysis is an unavoidable task of stability analysis of any geotechnical systems. Such analysis usually relies on the safety factor SF (if SF is below some specified threshold), the failure is possible). The objective of the stability analysis is then to estimate the failure probability P for SF to be below the specified threshold. When dealing with uncertainties, two facets should be considered as outlined by several authors in the domain of geotechnics, namely "aleatoric uncertainty" (also named "randomness" or "intrinsic variability") and "epistemic uncertainty" (i.e. when facing "vague, incomplete or imprecise information" such as limited databases and observations or "imperfect" modelling). The benefits of separating both facets of uncertainty can be seen from a risk management perspective because: - Aleatoric uncertainty, being a property of the system under study, cannot be reduced. However, practical actions can be taken to circumvent the potentially dangerous effects of such variability; - Epistemic uncertainty, being due to the incomplete/imprecise nature of available information, can be reduced by e.g., increasing the number of tests (lab or in site survey), improving the measurement methods or evaluating calculation procedure with model tests, confronting more information sources (expert opinions, data from literature, etc.). Uncertainty treatment in stability analysis usually restricts to the probabilistic framework to represent both facets of uncertainty. Yet, in the domain of geo-hazard assessments (like landslides, mine pillar collapse, rockfalls, etc.), the validity of this approach can be debatable. In the present communication, we propose to review the major criticisms available in the literature against the systematic use of probability in situations of high degree of uncertainty. On this basis, the feasibility of using a more flexible uncertainty representation tool is then investigated, namely Possibility distributions (e
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. Liubkina
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The article examines the current state and major imbalances in the financial market of Ukraine, which are the source of risk to the national economy and can significantly affect the monetary stability during the post-crisis period and the period of recession. Threats that are associated with peculiarities of the institutional structure of the financial market of Ukraine are analyzed, namely, on the one hand, the importance of banking institutions, and on the other – functional inadequacy of the banking systems in ensuring monetary and financial stability. The analysis shows that the weaknesses of the banking system have led to the accumulation of risks and structural misbalances in the Ukrainian economy which pose a danger to stability in the financial sector. Conclusions and measures are substantiated for the use of tools of monetary policy in order to strengthen monetary and financial stability. Among them are: the necessity of changes in the methodological tools of assessment of the financial stability and accumulation of systemic risk in the economy, measures to manage the inflation risk as the main internal risk for Ukraine, ways of enhancement of interaction between the banking system and the national economy through the interest rate benchmark.
ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties
van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.
2005-01-01
This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a
Common approach of risks analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.
1996-01-01
Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)
Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations
Stability analysis of a heated channel cooled by supercritical water
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Magni, M. C.; Delmastro, D. F; Marcel, C. P
2009-01-01
A simple model to study thermal-hydraulic stability of a heated cannel under supercritical conditions is presented. Single cannel stability analysis for the SCWR (Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor) design was performed. The drastic change of fluid density in the reactor core of a SCWR may induce DWO (Density Wave Oscillations) similar to those observed in BWRs. Due to the similarities between subcritical and supercritical systems we may treat the supercritical fluid as a pseudo two-phase system. Thus, we may extend the modeling approach often used for boiling flow stability analysis to supercritical pressure operation conditions. The model developed in this work take into account three regions: a heavy fluid region, similar to an incompressible liquid; a zone where a heavy fluid and a light fluid coexist, similar to two-phase mixture; and a light fluid region which behaves like superheated steam. It was used the homogeneous equilibrium model (HEM) for the pseudo boiling zone, and the ideal gas model for the pseudo superheated steam zone. System stability maps were obtained using linear stability analysis in the frequency domain. Two possible instability mechanisms are observed: DWO and excursive Ledinegg instabilities. Also, a sensitivity analysis showed that frictions in pseudo superheated steam zone, together with acceleration effect, are the most destabilizing effects. On the other hand, frictions in pseudo liquid zone are the most important stabilizing effect. [es
Stability analysis of the Ghana Research Reactor-1 (GHARR-1)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Della, R.; Alhassan, E.; Adoo, N.A.; Bansah, C.Y.; Nyarko, B.J.B.; Akaho, E.H.K.
2013-01-01
Highlights: • We developed a theoretical model to study the stability of the Ghana Research Reactor-1. • The neutronics transfer function was described by the point kinetics model for a single group of delayed neutrons. • The thermal hydraulics transfer function was based on the modified lumped parameter concept. • A computer code, RESA (REactor Stability Analysis) was developed. • Results show that the closed-loop transfer function was stable and well damped for variable operating power levels. - Abstract: A theoretical model has been developed to study the stability of the Ghana Research Reactor one (GHARR-1). The closed-loop transfer function of GHARR-1 was established based on the model, which involved the neutronics and the thermal hydraulics transfer functions. The reactor kinetics was described by the point kinetics model for a single group of delayed neutrons, whilst the thermal hydraulics transfer function was based on the modified lumped parameter concept. The inherent internal feedback effect due to the fuel and the coolant was represented by the fuel temperature coefficient and the moderator temperature coefficient respectively. A computer code, RESA (REactor Stability Analysis), entirely in Java was developed based on the model for systems analysis. Stability analysis of the open-loop transfer function of GHARR-1 based on the Nyquist criterion and Bode diagrams using RESA, has shown that the closed-loop transfer function was marginally stable for variable operating power levels. The relative stability margins of GHARR-1 were also identified
Solar Dynamic Power System Stability Analysis and Control
Momoh, James A.; Wang, Yanchun
1996-01-01
The objective of this research is to conduct dynamic analysis, control design, and control performance test of solar power system. Solar power system consists of generation system and distribution network system. A bench mark system is used in this research, which includes a generator with excitation system and governor, an ac/dc converter, six DDCU's and forty-eight loads. A detailed model is used for modeling generator. Excitation system is represented by a third order model. DDCU is represented by a seventh order system. The load is modeled by the combination of constant power and constant impedance. Eigen-analysis and eigen-sensitivity analysis are used for system dynamic analysis. The effects of excitation system, governor, ac/dc converter control, and the type of load on system stability are discussed. In order to improve system transient stability, nonlinear ac/dc converter control is introduced. The direct linearization method is used for control design. The dynamic analysis results show that these controls affect system stability in different ways. The parameter coordination of controllers are recommended based on the dynamic analysis. It is concluded from the present studies that system stability is improved by the coordination of control parameters and the nonlinear ac/dc converter control stabilize system oscillation caused by the load change and system fault efficiently.
Stability Analysis of Neural Networks-Based System Identification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Talel Korkobi
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This paper treats some problems related to nonlinear systems identification. A stability analysis neural network model for identifying nonlinear dynamic systems is presented. A constrained adaptive stable backpropagation updating law is presented and used in the proposed identification approach. The proposed backpropagation training algorithm is modified to obtain an adaptive learning rate guarantying convergence stability. The proposed learning rule is the backpropagation algorithm under the condition that the learning rate belongs to a specified range defining the stability domain. Satisfying such condition, unstable phenomena during the learning process are avoided. A Lyapunov analysis leads to the computation of the expression of a convenient adaptive learning rate verifying the convergence stability criteria. Finally, the elaborated training algorithm is applied in several simulations. The results confirm the effectiveness of the CSBP algorithm.
Improved asymptotic stability analysis for uncertain delayed state neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souza, Fernando O.; Palhares, Reinaldo M.; Ekel, Petr Ya.
2009-01-01
This paper presents a new linear matrix inequality (LMI) based approach to the stability analysis of artificial neural networks (ANN) subject to time-delay and polytope-bounded uncertainties in the parameters. The main objective is to propose a less conservative condition to the stability analysis using the Gu's discretized Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional theory and an alternative strategy to introduce slack matrices. Two computer simulations examples are performed to support the theoretical predictions. Particularly, in the first example, the Hopf bifurcation theory is used to verify the stability of the system when the origin falls into instability. The second example is presented to illustrate how the proposed approach can provide better stability performance when compared to other ones in the literature
Linear stability analysis in a solid-propellant rocket motor
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, K.M.; Kang, K.T.; Yoon, J.K. [Agency for Defense Development, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
1995-10-01
Combustion instability in solid-propellant rocket motors depends on the balance between acoustic energy gains and losses of the system. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the capability of the program which predicts the standard longitudinal stability using acoustic modes based on linear stability analysis and T-burner test results of propellants. Commercial ANSYS 5.0A program can be used to calculate the acoustic characteristic of a rocket motor. The linear stability prediction was compared with the static firing test results of rocket motors. (author). 11 refs., 17 figs.
Stability Analysis of Fractional-Order Nonlinear Systems with Delay
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yu Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Stability analysis of fractional-order nonlinear systems with delay is studied. We propose the definition of Mittag-Leffler stability of time-delay system and introduce the fractional Lyapunov direct method by using properties of Mittag-Leffler function and Laplace transform. Then some new sufficient conditions ensuring asymptotical stability of fractional-order nonlinear system with delay are proposed firstly. And the application of Riemann-Liouville fractional-order systems is extended by the fractional comparison principle and the Caputo fractional-order systems. Numerical simulations of an example demonstrate the universality and the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Risk and Performance – Purposes of Banking Supervison and Stability
Florea Drago?
2011-01-01
No organisation is immune to risk. Moreover, each organisation’s risks change constantly. Every organisation must learn to anticipate and prevent risk by identifying, measures, and controlling business. In this article we will show that banking risk management is an ever-changing process shaped by general factors, such as the institution objectives, financial trends, government regulation, internal structure, the maturity structure of assets and liabilities, and the size and source of the ris...
Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Aral, M. M
2010-01-01
... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...
Stability analysis of linear switching systems with time delays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Ping; Zhong Shouming; Cui Jinzhong
2009-01-01
The issue of stability analysis of linear switching system with discrete and distributed time delays is studied in this paper. An appropriate switching rule is applied to guarantee the stability of the whole switching system. Our results use a Riccati-type Lyapunov functional under a condition on the time delay. So, switching systems with mixed delays are developed. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.
Contributions to fuzzy polynomial techniques for stability analysis and control
Pitarch Pérez, José Luis
2014-01-01
The present thesis employs fuzzy-polynomial control techniques in order to improve the stability analysis and control of nonlinear systems. Initially, it reviews the more extended techniques in the field of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems, such as the more relevant results about polynomial and fuzzy polynomial systems. The basic framework uses fuzzy polynomial models by Taylor series and sum-of-squares techniques (semidefinite programming) in order to obtain stability guarantees...
Stability analysis for cellular neural networks with variable delays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Qiang; Wei Xiaopeng; Xu Jin
2006-01-01
Some sufficient conditions for the global exponential stability of cellular neural networks with variable delay are obtained by means of a method based on delay differential inequality. The method, which does not make use of Lyapunov functionals, is simple and effective for the stability analysis of neural networks with delay. Some previously established results in the literature are shown to be special cases of the presented result
Assessing Stability and Dynamics in Flood Risk Governance
Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Dieperink, C.; Wiering, M.A.; Raadgever, G.T.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van
2014-01-01
European urban agglomerations face increasing flood risks due to urbanization and the effects of climate change. These risks are addressed at European, national and regional policy levels. A diversification and alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs) can make vulnerable urban
Non linear stability analysis of parallel channels with natural circulation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mishra, Ashish Mani; Singh, Suneet, E-mail: suneet.singh@iitb.ac.in
2016-12-01
Highlights: • Nonlinear instabilities in natural circulation loop are studied. • Generalized Hopf points, Sub and Supercritical Hopf bifurcations are identified. • Bogdanov–Taken Point (BT Point) is observed by nonlinear stability analysis. • Effect of parameters on stability of system is studied. - Abstract: Linear stability analysis of two-phase flow in natural circulation loop is quite extensively studied by many researchers in past few years. It can be noted that linear stability analysis is limited to the small perturbations only. It is pointed out that such systems typically undergo Hopf bifurcation. If the Hopf bifurcation is subcritical, then for relatively large perturbation, the system has unstable limit cycles in the (linearly) stable region in the parameter space. Hence, linear stability analysis capturing only infinitesimally small perturbations is not sufficient. In this paper, bifurcation analysis is carried out to capture the non-linear instability of the dynamical system and both subcritical and supercritical bifurcations are observed. The regions in the parameter space for which subcritical and supercritical bifurcations exist are identified. These regions are verified by numerical simulation of the time-dependent, nonlinear ODEs for the selected points in the operating parameter space using MATLAB ODE solver.
Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a new system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang Kuifei; Yang Qigui
2009-01-01
In this paper, a new chaotic system is introduced. The system contains special cases as the modified Lorenz system and conjugate Chen system. Some subtle characteristics of stability and Hopf bifurcation of the new chaotic system are thoroughly investigated by rigorous mathematical analysis and symbolic computations. Meanwhile, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis are also presented.
Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management
Wehrspohn, Uwe
2002-01-01
An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...
Risks of corruption to state legitimacy and stability in fragile situations
Dix, Sarah; Hussmann, Karen; Walton, Grant
2012-01-01
Examining the cases of Liberia, Nepal and Colombia, this study asks how corruption poses risks to political legitimacy and stability in fragile situations. The report focuses on the key role of elites and their views of the state's legitimacy in determining the extent to which there will be instability or stability. Qualitative interviews of elites show that two particular patronage scenarios are seen as threatening stability. One is when the state or illegal actors sustain a corrupt network ...
Debt Stabilization Games in the Presence of Risk Premia
Engwerda, J.C.; van Aarle, B.; Plasmans, J.E.J.; Weeren, A.J.T.M.
2012-01-01
Abstract: As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization
Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia
Engwerda, J.C.; van Aarle, B.; Plasmans, J.E.J.; Weeren, A.J.T.M.
2013-01-01
As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a
Stability Analysis for a Multi-Camera Photogrammetric System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayman Habib
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Consumer-grade digital cameras suffer from geometrical instability that may cause problems when used in photogrammetric applications. This paper provides a comprehensive review of this issue of interior orientation parameter variation over time, it explains the common ways used for coping with the issue, and describes the existing methods for performing stability analysis for a single camera. The paper then points out the lack of coverage of stability analysis for multi-camera systems, suggests a modification of the collinearity model to be used for the calibration of an entire photogrammetric system, and proposes three methods for system stability analysis. The proposed methods explore the impact of the changes in interior orientation and relative orientation/mounting parameters on the reconstruction process. Rather than relying on ground truth in real datasets to check the system calibration stability, the proposed methods are simulation-based. Experiment results are shown, where a multi-camera photogrammetric system was calibrated three times, and stability analysis was performed on the system calibration parameters from the three sessions. The proposed simulation-based methods provided results that were compatible with a real-data based approach for evaluating the impact of changes in the system calibration parameters on the three-dimensional reconstruction.
Probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis
Cao, Zijun; Li, Dianqing
2017-01-01
This is the first book to revisit geotechnical site characterization from a probabilistic point of view and provide rational tools to probabilistically characterize geotechnical properties and underground stratigraphy using limited information obtained from a specific site. This book not only provides new probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis, but also tackles the difficulties in practical implementation of these approaches. In addition, this book also develops efficient Monte Carlo simulation approaches for slope stability analysis and implements these approaches in a commonly available spreadsheet environment. These approaches and the software package are readily available to geotechnical practitioners and alleviate them from reliability computational algorithms. The readers will find useful information for a non-specialist to determine project-specific statistics of geotechnical properties and to perform probabilistic analysis of slope stability.
Stability of risk attitudes and media coverage of economic news
Tausch, Franziska; Zumbuehl, Maria
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the impact of exogenous changes in individuals' perceived economic environment on their self-stated risk attitudes by exploiting changes in media coverage of economic news. We use information on risk attitudes from the German Socioeconomic Panel and combine it with data on the average daily frequency of economic news reports during the year and the month preceding the date of the risk attitude elicitation. Using fixed effects regressions we observe effects of both long...
Static Voltage Stability Analysis by Using SVM and Neural Network
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehdi Hajian
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Voltage stability is an important problem in power system networks. In this paper, in terms of static voltage stability, and application of Neural Networks (NN and Supported Vector Machine (SVM for estimating of voltage stability margin (VSM and predicting of voltage collapse has been investigated. This paper considers voltage stability in power system in two parts. The first part calculates static voltage stability margin by Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN. The advantage of the used method is high accuracy in online detecting the VSM. Whereas the second one, voltage collapse analysis of power system is performed by Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN and SVM. The obtained results in this paper indicate, that time and number of training samples of SVM, are less than NN. In this paper, a new model of training samples for detection system, using the normal distribution load curve at each load feeder, has been used. Voltage stability analysis is estimated by well-know L and VSM indexes. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed methods, IEEE 14 bus grid and the actual network of Yazd Province are used.
A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Dijkman, Jos
2007-01-01
.... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...
Stability analysis of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhou Qi, E-mail: zhouqilhy@yahoo.com.c [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Xu Shengyuan [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Chen Bing [Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong (China); Li Hongyi [Space Control and Inertial Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Chu Yuming [Department of Mathematics, Huzhou Teacher' s College, Huzhou 313000, Zhejiang (China)
2009-10-05
This Letter considers the problem of stability analysis of a class of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances. The delays are assumed to be time-varying and bounded. By utilizing Ito's differential formula and Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, delay-range-dependent and rate-dependent (rate-independent) stability criteria are proposed in terms of linear matrices inequalities. An important feature of the proposed results is that all the stability conditions are dependent on the upper and lower bounds of the delays. Another important feature is that the obtained stability conditions are less conservative than certain existing ones in the literature due to introducing some appropriate free-weighting matrices. A simulation example is employed to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methods.
Global robust exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Shengyuan; Lam, James; Ho, Daniel W.C.; Zou Yun
2004-01-01
This Letter investigates the problem of robust global exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The values of the time-invariant uncertain parameters are assumed to be bounded within given compact sets. An improved condition for the existence of a unique equilibrium point and its global exponential stability of RNNs with known parameters is proposed. Based on this, a sufficient condition for the global robust exponential stability for interval RNNs is obtained. Both of the conditions are expressed in terms of LMIs, which can be checked easily by various recently developed convex optimization algorithms. Examples are provided to demonstrate the reduced conservatism of the proposed exponential stability condition
Stability analysis of embedded nonlinear predictor neural generalized predictive controller
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hesham F. Abdel Ghaffar
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Nonlinear Predictor-Neural Generalized Predictive Controller (NGPC is one of the most advanced control techniques that are used with severe nonlinear processes. In this paper, a hybrid solution from NGPC and Internal Model Principle (IMP is implemented to stabilize nonlinear, non-minimum phase, variable dead time processes under high disturbance values over wide range of operation. Also, the superiority of NGPC over linear predictive controllers, like GPC, is proved for severe nonlinear processes over wide range of operation. The necessary conditions required to stabilize NGPC is derived using Lyapunov stability analysis for nonlinear processes. The NGPC stability conditions and improvement in disturbance suppression are verified by both simulation using Duffing’s nonlinear equation and real-time using continuous stirred tank reactor. Up to our knowledge, the paper offers the first hardware embedded Neural GPC which has been utilized to verify NGPC–IMP improvement in realtime.
Stability Analysis of Nonuniform Rectangular Beams Using Homotopy Perturbation Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Seval Pinarbasi
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The design of slender beams, that is, beams with large laterally unsupported lengths, is commonly controlled by stability limit states. Beam buckling, also called “lateral torsional buckling,” is different from column buckling in that a beam not only displaces laterally but also twists about its axis during buckling. The coupling between twist and lateral displacement makes stability analysis of beams more complex than that of columns. For this reason, most of the analytical studies in the literature on beam stability are concentrated on simple cases: uniform beams with ideal boundary conditions and simple loadings. This paper shows that complex beam stability problems, such as lateral torsional buckling of rectangular beams with variable cross-sections, can successfully be solved using homotopy perturbation method (HPM.
Nolinear stability analysis of nuclear reactors : expansion methods for stability domains
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, Chae Yong
1992-02-01
Two constructive methods for estimating asymptotic stability domains of nonlinear reactor models are developed in this study: an improved Chang and Thorp's method based on expansion of a Lyapunov function and a new method based on expansion of any positive definite function. The methods are established on the concept of stability definitions of Lyapunov itself. The first method provides a sequence of stability regions that eventually approaches the exact stability domain, but requires many expansions in order to obtain the entire stability region because the starting Lyapunov function usually corresponds to a small stability region and because most dynamic systems are stiff. The second method (new method) requires only a positive definite function and thus it is easy to come up with a starting region. From a large starting region, the entire stability region is estimated effectively after sufficient iterations. It is particularly useful for stiff systems. The methods are applied to several nonlinear reactor models known in the literature: one-temperature feedback model, two-temperature feedback model, and xenon dynamics model, and the results are compared. A reactor feedback model for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) considering fuel and moderator temperature effects is developed and the nonlinear stability regions are estimated for the various values of design parameters by using the new method. The steady-state properties of the nonlinear reactor system are analyzed via bifurcation theory. The analysis of nonlinear phenomena is carried out for the various forms of reactivity feedback coefficients that are both temperature- (or power-) independent and dependent. If one of two temperature coefficients is positive, unstable limit cycles or multiplicity of the steady-state solutions appear when the other temperature coefficient exceeds a certain critical value. As an example, even though the fuel temperature coefficient is negative, if the moderator temperature
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Additon, S.L.; Peregoy, W.L.; Foppe, T.L.
1999-01-01
Building 707 and its addition, Building 707A, were selected, after the production mission of Rocky Flats was terminated a few years ago, to stabilize many of the plutonium residues remaining at the site by 2002. The facility had undergone substantial safety improvements to its safety systems and conduct of operations for resumption of plutonium operations in the early 1990s and appeared ideally suited for this new mission to support accelerated Site closure. During development of a new authorization basis, a seismic evaluation was performed. This evaluation addressed an unanalyzed expansion joint and suspect connection details for the precast concrete tilt-up construction and concluded that the seismic capacity of the facility is less than half of that determined by previous analysis. Further, potential seismic interaction was identified between a collapsing Building 707 and the seismically upgraded Building 707A, possibly causing the partial collapse of the latter. Both the operating contractor and the Department of Energy sought a sound technical basis for deciding how to proceed. This paper addresses the risks of the as-is facility and possible benefits of upgrades to support a decision on whether to upgrade the seismic capacity of Building 707, accept the risk of the as-is facility for its short remaining mission, or relocate critical stabilization missions. The paper also addresses the Department of Energy's policy on natural phenomena
Advances in Computational Stability Analysis of Composite Aerospace Structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Degenhardt, R.; Araujo, F. C. de
2010-01-01
European aircraft industry demands for reduced development and operating costs. Structural weight reduction by exploitation of structural reserves in composite aerospace structures contributes to this aim, however, it requires accurate and experimentally validated stability analysis of real structures under realistic loading conditions. This paper presents different advances from the area of computational stability analysis of composite aerospace structures which contribute to that field. For stringer stiffened panels main results of the finished EU project COCOMAT are given. It investigated the exploitation of reserves in primary fibre composite fuselage structures through an accurate and reliable simulation of postbuckling and collapse. For unstiffened cylindrical composite shells a proposal for a new design method is presented.
Power system small signal stability analysis and control
Mondal, Debasish; Sengupta, Aparajita
2014-01-01
Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis and Control presents a detailed analysis of the problem of severe outages due to the sustained growth of small signal oscillations in modern interconnected power systems. The ever-expanding nature of power systems and the rapid upgrade to smart grid technologies call for the implementation of robust and optimal controls. Power systems that are forced to operate close to their stability limit have resulted in the use of control devices by utility companies to improve the performance of the transmission system against commonly occurring power system
Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown-Van Hoozer, S.A.; Kenley, C.R.
1997-01-01
A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks. This paper presents the programmatic risk assessment methodology developed for the 1995 R and D Plan and updated for the 1996 R and D Plan. Results of the 1996 assessment also are presented (DOE/ID-10561, 1996)
Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian
2016-01-01
Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amjady, Nima; Ansari, Mohammad Reza
2008-01-01
The introduction of liberalized electricity markets in many countries has resulted in more highly stressed power systems. On the other hand, operating points of a power system are acceptable in the feasible region, which is surrounded by the borders of different stabilities. Power system instability is critical for all participants of the electricity market. Determination of different stability margins can result in the optimum utilization of power system with minimum risk. This paper focuses on the small disturbance voltage stability, which is an important subset of the power system global stability. This kind of voltage stability is usually evaluated by static analysis tools such as continuation power flow, while it essentially has dynamic nature. Besides, a combination of linear and nonlinear analysis tools is required to correctly analyze it. In this paper, a hybrid evaluation method composed of static, dynamic, linear, and nonlinear analysis tools is proposed for this purpose. Effect of load scenario, generation pattern, branch and generator contingency on the small disturbance voltage stability are evaluated by the hybrid method. The test results are given for New England and IEEE68 bus test systems. (author)
Habitat stability, predation risk and ‘memory syndromes’
S. Dalesman; A. Rendle; S.R.X. Dall
2015-01-01
Habitat stability and predation pressure are thought to be major drivers in the evolutionary maintenance of behavioural syndromes, with trait covariance only occurring within specific habitats. However, animals also exhibit behavioural plasticity, often through memory formation. Memory formation across traits may be linked, with covariance in memory traits (memory syndromes) selected under particular environmental conditions. This study tests whether the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis, demonst...
What is a risk. [Quantitative risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schoen, G [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany, F.R.)
1979-02-01
The following article is a revised version of a lecture given by the author during the VDE meeting 'Technical Expert Activities' in Brunswick. First of all, the concept of 'risk' is discussed which leads to a probability scale which then permits a definition of the 'justifiable risk' as the boundary between 'hazard' and 'safety'. The boundary is quantified indirectly from laws, regulations, instructions, etc. to the 'Technological rules' for special fields of application by minimum requirement data. These viewpoints described in detail are not only of substantial significance for the creation of safety regulations but also for their application and consequently for jurisdiction.
Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.
2011-01-01
The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis. Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hughes, M.H.; Phillips, M.W.
1996-01-01
This report describes MHD equilibrium and stability studies carried out at Northrop Grumman`s Advanced Technology and Development Center during the period March 1 to December 31, 1995. Significant progress is reported in both ideal and resistive MHD modeling of TFTR plasmas. Specifically, attention is concentrated on analysis of Advanced Tokamak experiments at TFTR involving plasmas in which the q-profiles were non-monotonic.
Stability Analysis for Hybrid Automata Using Conservative Gains
Langerak, Romanus; Engell, S.; Guegen, H.; Polderman, Jan W.; Krilavicius, T.; Zaytoon, J.
2003-01-01
This paper presents a stability analysis approach for a class of hybrid automata. It is assumed that the dynamics in each location of the hybrid automaton is linear and asymptotically stable, and that the guards on the transitions are hyperplanes in the state space. For each pair of ingoing and
Yield evaluation and stability analysis in newly selected `KSA' cotton ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Yield evaluation and stability analysis in newly selected `KSA' cotton cultivars in Western Kenya. R M Opondo, G A Ombakho. Abstract. (African Crop Science Journal, 1997 5(2): 119-126). http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/acsj.v5i2.27854 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians ...
The analysis of Stability reliability of Qian Tang River seawall
Wu, Xue-Xiong
2017-11-01
Qiantang River seawall due to high water soaking pond by foreshore scour, encountered during the low tide prone slope overall instability. Considering the seawall beach scour in front of random change, using the simplified Bishop method, combined with the variability of soil mechanics parameters, calculation and analysis of Qiantang River Xiasha seawall segments of the overall stability.
Stability Analysis for Multi-Parameter Linear Periodic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Seyranian, A.P.; Solem, Frederik; Pedersen, Pauli
1999-01-01
This paper is devoted to stability analysis of general linear periodic systems depending on real parameters. The Floquet method and perturbation technique are the basis of the development. We start out with the first and higher-order derivatives of the Floquet matrix with respect to problem...
A tutorial on incremental stability analysis using contraction theory
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jouffroy, Jerome; Fossen, Thor I.
2010-01-01
This paper introduces a methodology for dierential nonlinear stability analysis using contraction theory (Lohmiller and Slotine, 1998). The methodology includes four distinct steps: the descriptions of two systems to be compared (the plant and the observer in the case of observer convergence...... on several simple examples....
Experimental bifurcation analysis of an impact oscillator – Determining stability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bureau, Emil; Schilder, Frank; Elmegård, Michael
2014-01-01
We propose and investigate three different methods for assessing stability of dynamical equilibrium states during experimental bifurcation analysis, using a control-based continuation method. The idea is to modify or turn off the control at an equilibrium state and study the resulting behavior...
Stability analysis for a general age-dependent vaccination model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Doma, M.
1995-05-01
An SIR epidemic model of a general age-dependent vaccination model is investigated when the fertility, mortality and removal rates depends on age. We give threshold criteria of the existence of equilibriums and perform stability analysis. Furthermore a critical vaccination coverage that is sufficient to eradicate the disease is determined. (author). 12 refs
Stabilization diagrams using operational modal analysis and sliding filters
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olsen, Peter; Juul, Martin Ørum Ørhem; Tarpø, Marius Glindtvad
2017-01-01
This paper presents a filtering technique for doing effective operational modal analysis. The result of the filtering method is construction of stabilization diagram that clearly separates physical poles from spurious noise poles needed for unbiased fitting. A band pass filter is moved slowly over...
stability analysis of food barley genotypes in northern ethiopia
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ACSS
interaction and stability for barley grain yield and yield related traits in the growing ... that the environments were diverse; causing most of the variation in grain yield. ... component axes IPCA1, IPCA2 and IPCA3, which explained 58.06, 27.11 and ..... AMMI analysis of variance for grain yield (t ha-1) of food barley genotypes ...
Transient stability analysis of a distribution network with distributed generators
Xyngi, I.; Ishchenko, A.; Popov, M.; Sluis, van der L.
2009-01-01
This letter describes the transient stability analysis of a 10-kV distribution network with wind generators, microturbines, and CHP plants. The network being modeled in Matlab/Simulink takes into account detailed dynamic models of the generators. Fault simulations at various locations are
Stability Analysis of Static Slip-Energy Recovery Drive via ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The stability of the sub synchronous static slip energy recovery scheme for the speed control of slip-ring induction motor is presented. A set of nonlinear differential equations which describe the system dynamics are derived and linearized about an operating point using perturbation technique. The Eigenvalue analysis of the ...
Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-06-01
The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)
Aeroelastic stability analysis of a Darrieus wind turbine
Popelka, D.
1982-02-01
An aeroelastic stability analysis was developed for predicting flutter instabilities on vertical axis wind turbines. The analytical model and mathematical formulation of the problem are described as well as the physical mechanism that creates flutter in Darrieus turbines. Theoretical results are compared with measured experimental data from flutter tests of the Sandia 2 Meter turbine. Based on this comparison, the analysis appears to be an adequate design evaluation tool.
Aeroelastic stability analysis of a Darrieus wind turbine
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Popelka, D.
1982-02-01
An aeroelastic stability analysis has been developed for predicting flutter instabilities on vertical axis wind turbines. The analytical model and mathematical formulation of the problem are described as well as the physical mechanism that creates flutter in Darrieus turbines. Theoretical results are compared with measured experimental data from flutter tests of the Sandia 2 Meter turbine. Based on this comparison, the analysis appears to be an adequate design evaluation tool.
Stability Analysis of Some Nonlinear Anaerobic Digestion Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivan Simeonov
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract: The paper deals with local asymptotic stability analysis of some mass balance dynamic models (based on one and on two-stage reaction schemes of the anaerobic digestion (AD in CSTR. The equilibrium states for models based on one (with Monod, Contois and Haldane shapes for the specific growth rate and on two-stage (only with Monod shapes for both the specific growth rate of acidogenic and methanogenic bacterial populations reaction schemes have been determined solving sets of nonlinear algebraic equations using Maples. Their stability has been analyzed systematically, which provides insight and guidance for AD bioreactors design, operation and control.
Assessment of the Prony's method for BWR stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ortiz-Villafuerte, Javier; Castillo-Duran, Rogelio; Palacios-Hernandez, Javier C.
2011-01-01
Highlights: → This paper describes a method to determine the degree of stability of a BWR. → Performance comparison between Prony's and common AR techniques is presented. → Benchmark data and actual BWR transient data are used for comparison. → DR and f results are presented and discussed. → The Prony's method is shown to be a robust technique for BWR stability. - Abstract: It is known that Boiling Water Reactors are susceptible to present power oscillations in regions of high power and low coolant flow, in the power-flow operational map. It is possible to fall in one of such instability regions during reactor startup, since both power and coolant flow are being increased but not proportionally. One other possibility for falling into those areas is the occurrence of a trip of recirculation pumps. Stability monitoring in such cases can be difficult, because the amount or quality of power signal data required for calculation of the stability key parameters may not be enough to provide reliable results in an adequate time range. In this work, the Prony's Method is presented as one complementary alternative to determine the degree of stability of a BWR, through time series data. This analysis method can provide information about decay ratio and oscillation frequency from power signals obtained during transient events. However, so far not many applications in Boiling Water Reactors operation have been reported and supported to establish the scope of using such analysis for actual transient events. This work presents first a comparison of decay ratio and frequency oscillation results obtained by Prony's method and those results obtained by the participants of the Forsmark 1 and 2 Boiling Water Reactor Stability Benchmark using diverse techniques. Then, a comparison of decay ratio and frequency oscillation results is performed for four real BWR transient event data, using Prony's method and two other techniques based on an autoregressive modeling. The four
Stability of Early Risk Assessment for Autism Spectrum Disorder in Preterm Infants
Yaari, Maya; Yitzhak, Neta; Harel, Ayelet; Friedlander, Edwa; Bar-Oz, Benjamin; Eventov-Friedman, Smadar; Mankuta, David; Gamliel, Ifat; Yirmiya, Nurit
2016-01-01
Stability and change in early autism spectrum disorder risk were examined in a cohort of 99 preterm infants (?34 weeks of gestation) using the Autism Observation Scale for Infants at 8 and 12 months and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule--Toddler Module at 18 months. A total of 21 infants were identified at risk by the Autism Observation…
RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. PIRVUTOIU
2008-05-01
Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wheeler, T.
1994-12-01
The potential radiological and nonradiological risks associated with specific radioactive waste shipping campaigns at the Hanford Site are estimated. The shipping campaigns analyzed are associated with the transportation of wastes from the N-Reactor site at the 200-W Area, both within the Hanford Reservation, for disposal. The analysis is based on waste that would be generated from the N-Reactor stabilization program
Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)
1997-07-01
This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.
Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja
2017-10-01
Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Analysis of rocket flight stability based on optical image measurement
Cui, Shuhua; Liu, Junhu; Shen, Si; Wang, Min; Liu, Jun
2018-02-01
Based on the abundant optical image measurement data from the optical measurement information, this paper puts forward the method of evaluating the rocket flight stability performance by using the measurement data of the characteristics of the carrier rocket in imaging. On the basis of the method of measuring the characteristics of the carrier rocket, the attitude parameters of the rocket body in the coordinate system are calculated by using the measurements data of multiple high-speed television sets, and then the parameters are transferred to the rocket body attack angle and it is assessed whether the rocket has a good flight stability flying with a small attack angle. The measurement method and the mathematical algorithm steps through the data processing test, where you can intuitively observe the rocket flight stability state, and also can visually identify the guidance system or failure analysis.
Stability analysis for stochastic BAM nonlinear neural network with delays
Lv, Z. W.; Shu, H. S.; Wei, G. L.
2008-02-01
In this paper, stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with constant or time-varying delays is considered. Based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, we derive several sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the global asymptotically stable in the mean square. Our investigation shows that the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if there are solutions to some linear matrix inequalities(LMIs). Hence, the global asymptotic stability of the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global asymptotic stability criteria.
Stability analysis for stochastic BAM nonlinear neural network with delays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lv, Z W; Shu, H S; Wei, G L
2008-01-01
In this paper, stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with constant or time-varying delays is considered. Based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, we derive several sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the global asymptotically stable in the mean square. Our investigation shows that the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if there are solutions to some linear matrix inequalities(LMIs). Hence, the global asymptotic stability of the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global asymptotic stability criteria
A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)
A background risk analysis. Vol. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)
THE FINANCIAL STABILITY ANALYSIS THROUGH THE WORKING CAPITAL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
LĂPĂDUŞI MIHAELA LOREDANA
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The main goal of any business is to maintain the financial stability not only on the short term but also on medium and long term, in other words to maintain a harmony between financial sources and financial needs, respectively the equality between the assets and liabilities from the balance sheet. On short term, maintaining the financial stability involves correlating the temporary resources with the temporary uses by using the necessary working capital, and on the long-term, the financial stability involves comparing the permanent resources with the permanent uses by working capital indicator. The determination of the financial state of the company at a certain moment represents the key moment in establishing and adopting the economic and financial decisions in the management of the company. Maintaining the financial stability of the company represents one of the main objectives of the financial analysis and management and it also provides the optimum development of the entire economic and financial activity of the company. The analysis of the working capital size is based on the financial statement data and information, and based on this analysis is considered the financial situation of the company, the financial equilibrium state at a certain moment. The purpose of this article is to highlight the fact that the maintenance of the financial stability on medium and long term is subordinated to the “working capital” indicator, its content and interpretation evolving in time and varying differently from one company to another. The results of this research may have broad applicability in the field of the companies’ activity and it materializes in the complex approach of the working capital regarded as a classic indicator, frequently used in the financial analysis and with profound significance in establishing the financial state in general and the equilibrium state in particular.
Dynamic stability and bifurcation analysis in fractional thermodynamics
Béda, Péter B.
2018-02-01
In mechanics, viscoelasticity was the first field of applications in studying geomaterials. Further possibilities arise in spatial non-locality. Non-local materials were already studied in the 1960s by several authors as a part of continuum mechanics and are still in focus of interest because of the rising importance of materials with internal micro- and nano-structure. When material instability gained more interest, non-local behavior appeared in a different aspect. The problem was concerned to numerical analysis, because then instability zones exhibited singular properties for local constitutive equations. In dynamic stability analysis, mathematical aspects of non-locality were studied by using the theory of dynamic systems. There the basic set of equations describing the behavior of continua was transformed to an abstract dynamic system consisting of differential operators acting on the perturbation field variables. Such functions should satisfy homogeneous boundary conditions and act as indicators of stability of a selected state of the body under consideration. Dynamic systems approach results in conditions for cases, when the differential operators have critical eigenvalues of zero real parts (dynamic stability or instability conditions). When the critical eigenvalues have non-trivial eigenspace, the way of loss of stability is classified as a typical (or generic) bifurcation. Our experiences show that material non-locality and the generic nature of bifurcation at instability are connected, and the basic functions of the non-trivial eigenspace can be used to determine internal length quantities of non-local mechanics. Fractional calculus is already successfully used in thermo-elasticity. In the paper, non-locality is introduced via fractional strain into the constitutive relations of various conventional types. Then, by defining dynamic systems, stability and bifurcation are studied for states of thermo-mechanical solids. Stability conditions and genericity
DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS FOR STABILITY ANALYSIS OF TOWER CRANES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sinel'shchikov Aleksey Vladimirovich
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Tower cranes are one of the main tools for execution of reloading works during construction. Design of tower cranes is carried out in accordance with RD 22-166-86 “Construction of tower cranes. Rules of analysis”, according to which to ensure stability it is required not to exceed the overturning moment upper limit. The calculation of these moments is carried out with the use of empirical coefficients and quite time-consuming. Moreover, normative methodology only considers the static position of the crane and does not take into account the presence of dynamic transients due to crane functioning (lifting and swinging of the load, boom turning and the presence of the dynamic external load (e.g. from wind for different orientations of the crane. This paper proposes a method of determining the stability coefficient of the crane based on acting reaction forces at the support points - the points of contact of wheels with the crane rail track, which allows us, at the design stage, to investigate stability of tower crane under variable external loads and operating conditions. Subject: the safety of tower cranes operation with regard to compliance with regulatory requirements of ensuring their stability both at the design stage and at the operational stage. Research objectives: increasing the safety of operation of tower cranes on the basis of improving methodology of their design to ensure static and dynamic stability. Materials and methods: analysis and synthesis of the regulatory framework and modern research works on provision of safe operation of tower cranes, the method of numerical simulation. Results: we proposed the formula for analysis of stability of tower cranes using the resulting reaction forces at the supports of the crane at the point of contact of the wheel with the rail track.
Ideal MHD stability analysis of KSTAR target AT mode
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yi, S.M.; Kim, J.H.; You, K.I.; Kim, J.Y.
2009-01-01
Full text: A main research objective of KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) device is to demonstrate the steady-state operation capability of high-performance AT (Advanced Tokamak) mode. To meet this goal, it is critical for KSTAR to have a good MHD stability boundary, particularly against the high-beta ideal instabilities such as the external kink and the ballooning modes. To support this MHD stability KSTAR has been designed to have a strong plasma shape and a close interval between plasma and passive- plate wall. During the conceptual design phase of KSTAR, a preliminary study was performed to estimate the high beta MHD stability limit of KSTAR target AT mode using PEST and VACUUM codes and it was shown that the target AT mode can be stable up to β N ∼ 5 with a well-defined plasma pressure and current profiles. Recently, a new calculation has been performed to estimate the ideal stability limit in various KSTAR operating conditions using DCON code, and it has been observed that there is some difference between the new and old calculation results, particularly in the dependence of the maximum β N value on the toroidal mode number. Here, we thus present a more detailed analysis of the ideal MHD stability limit of KSTAR target AT mode using various codes, which include GATO as well as PEST and DCON, in the comparison of calculation results among the three codes. (author)
Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmet Inanir
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91
Bank stability as a risk factor for pipeline infrastructure: a Scottish example
Maniatis, Georgios; Williams, Richard; Hoey, Trevor
2017-04-01
Bank erosion is a spatially variable process controlled by a number of factors that are interrelated (e.g. grain size, moisture content, organic content, vegetation, bank gradient). As a risk factor, bank erosion has been strongly connected to the failure of infrastructure that crosses or is adjacent to morphologically dynamic rivers. To manage this risk, comprehensive infrastructure asset management programs should include risk assessment of all structures that cross or are near a river. In Scotland, a significant proportion of cross-river infrastructure is pipe bridges, for both clean and waste water. These river crossings are maintained and managed by Scottish Water, a supplier responsible for a 48,000 km long drinking water pipe network and a 52,000 km long wastewater pipe network. Recently, Scottish Water began a comprehensive pipe bridge asset inspection program, which incorporates the acquisition of data to assess riverbank stability. The first step in the development of this database is the use of a prototype software application (a tablet app) which simplifies the surveying process by framing specific geomorphological questions and surveying tasks. As a result, the surveys can be conducted by inspectors with no specialist training in bank stability assessment and then reviewed by those with more expertise. Here, results are presented of a review of survey data, enabling the identification of the assets that are most at risk from bank erosion. The assessment focuses on assets from catchments in two contrasting areas of Scotland; the Hebrides and Glasgow. The uncertainty analysis focuses on input data quality and the variability of information available for desk based risk assessments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In parallel, considerations regarding the extension of this framework towards a unified strategy for assessing bank erosion are discussed such as the selection of a statistical framework and the catchment classification process
Habitat stability, predation risk and ‘memory syndromes’
Dalesman, S.; Rendle, A.; Dall, S.R.X.
2015-01-01
Habitat stability and predation pressure are thought to be major drivers in the evolutionary maintenance of behavioural syndromes, with trait covariance only occurring within specific habitats. However, animals also exhibit behavioural plasticity, often through memory formation. Memory formation across traits may be linked, with covariance in memory traits (memory syndromes) selected under particular environmental conditions. This study tests whether the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis, demonstrates consistency among memory traits (‘memory syndrome’) related to threat avoidance and foraging. We used eight populations originating from three different habitat types: i) laboratory populations (stable habitat, predator-free); ii) river populations (fairly stable habitat, fish predation); and iii) ditch populations (unstable habitat, invertebrate predation). At a population level, there was a negative relationship between memories related to threat avoidance and food selectivity, but no consistency within habitat type. At an individual level, covariance between memory traits was dependent on habitat. Laboratory populations showed no covariance among memory traits, whereas river populations showed a positive correlation between food memories, and ditch populations demonstrated a negative relationship between threat memory and food memories. Therefore, selection pressures among habitats appear to act independently on memory trait covariation at an individual level and the average response within a population. PMID:26013966
Stability analysis of jointed rock slope by the block theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoshinaka, Ryunoshin; Yamabe, Tadashi; Fujita, Tomoo.
1990-01-01
The block theory to analyze three dimensional stability problems of discontinuous rock masses is applied to the actual discontinuous rock slope. Taking into consideration that the geometrical information about discontinuities generally increases according to progressive steps of rock investigation in field, the method adopted for analysis is divided into following two steps; 1) the statistical/probabilitical analysis using information from the primary investigation stage which mainly consists of that of natural rock outcrops, and 2) the deterministic analysis correspond to the secondary stage using exploration adits. (author)
Stability Analysis of Periodic Systems by Truncated Point Mappings
Guttalu, R. S.; Flashner, H.
1996-01-01
An approach is presented deriving analytical stability and bifurcation conditions for systems with periodically varying coefficients. The method is based on a point mapping(period to period mapping) representation of the system's dynamics. An algorithm is employed to obtain an analytical expression for the point mapping and its dependence on the system's parameters. The algorithm is devised to derive the coefficients of a multinominal expansion of the point mapping up to an arbitrary order in terms of the state variables and of the parameters. Analytical stability and bifurcation condition are then formulated and expressed as functional relations between the parameters. To demonstrate the application of the method, the parametric stability of Mathieu's equation and of a two-degree of freedom system are investigated. The results obtained by the proposed approach are compared to those obtained by perturbation analysis and by direct integration which we considered to the "exact solution". It is shown that, unlike perturbation analysis, the proposed method provides very accurate solution even for large valuesof the parameters. If an expansion of the point mapping in terms of a small parameter is performed the method is equivalent to perturbation analysis. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the method can be easily applied to multiple-degree-of-freedom systems using the same framework. This feature is an important advantage since most of the existing analysis methods apply mainly to single-degree-of-freedom systems and their extension to higher dimensions is difficult and computationally cumbersome.
Stability basin estimates fall risk from observed kinematics, demonstrated on the Sit-to-Stand task.
Shia, Victor; Moore, Talia Yuki; Holmes, Patrick; Bajcsy, Ruzena; Vasudevan, Ram
2018-04-27
The ability to quantitatively measure stability is essential to ensuring the safety of locomoting systems. While the response to perturbation directly reflects the stability of a motion, this experimental method puts human subjects at risk. Unfortunately, existing indirect methods for estimating stability from unperturbed motion have been shown to have limited predictive power. This paper leverages recent advances in dynamical systems theory to accurately estimate the stability of human motion without requiring perturbation. This approach relies on kinematic observations of a nominal Sit-to-Stand motion to construct an individual-specific dynamic model, input bounds, and feedback control that are then used to compute the set of perturbations from which the model can recover. This set, referred to as the stability basin, was computed for 14 individuals, and was able to successfully differentiate between less and more stable Sit-to-Stand strategies for each individual with greater accuracy than existing methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Preliminary hazards analysis of thermal scrap stabilization system. Revision 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, W.S.
1994-01-01
This preliminary analysis examined the HA-21I glovebox and its supporting systems for potential process hazards. Upon further analysis, the thermal stabilization system has been installed in gloveboxes HC-21A and HC-21C. The use of HC-21C and HC-21A simplified the initial safety analysis. In addition, these gloveboxes were cleaner and required less modification for operation than glovebox HA-21I. While this document refers to glovebox HA-21I for the hazards analysis performed, glovebox HC-21C is sufficiently similar that the following analysis is also valid for HC-21C. This hazards analysis document is being re-released as revision 1 to include the updated flowsheet document (Appendix C) and the updated design basis (Appendix D). The revised Process Flow Schematic has also been included (Appendix E). This Current revision incorporates the recommendations provided from the original hazards analysis as well. The System Design Description (SDD) has also been appended (Appendix H) to document the bases for Safety Classification of thermal stabilization equipment
Stability Analysis of Discontinuous Galerkin Approximations to the Elastodynamics Problem
Antonietti, Paola F.
2015-11-21
We consider semi-discrete discontinuous Galerkin approximations of both displacement and displacement-stress formulations of the elastodynamics problem. We prove the stability analysis in the natural energy norm and derive optimal a-priori error estimates. For the displacement-stress formulation, schemes preserving the total energy of the system are introduced and discussed. We verify our theoretical estimates on two and three dimensions test problems.
Stability Analysis of Discontinuous Galerkin Approximations to the Elastodynamics Problem
Antonietti, Paola F.; Ayuso de Dios, Blanca; Mazzieri, Ilario; Quarteroni, Alfio
2015-01-01
We consider semi-discrete discontinuous Galerkin approximations of both displacement and displacement-stress formulations of the elastodynamics problem. We prove the stability analysis in the natural energy norm and derive optimal a-priori error estimates. For the displacement-stress formulation, schemes preserving the total energy of the system are introduced and discussed. We verify our theoretical estimates on two and three dimensions test problems.
Tools for voltage stability analysis, including a probabilistic approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vieira Filho, X; Martins, N; Bianco, A; Pinto, H J.C.P. [Centro de Pesquisas de Energia Eletrica (CEPEL), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pereira, M V.F. [Power System Research (PSR), Inc., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Gomes, P; Santos, M.G. dos [ELETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
1994-12-31
This paper reviews some voltage stability analysis tools that are being used or envisioned for expansion and operational planning studies in the Brazilian system, as well as, their applications. The paper also shows that deterministic tools can be linked together in a probabilistic framework, so as to provide complementary help to the analyst in choosing the most adequate operation strategies, or the best planning solutions for a given system. (author) 43 refs., 8 figs., 8 tabs.
LAPUR5 BWR stability analysis in Kuosheng nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kunlung Wu; Chunkuan Shih; Wang, J.R.; Kao, L.S.
2005-01-01
Full text of publication follows: Unstable oscillation of a nuclear power reactor core is one of the main reasons that causes minor core damage. Stability analysis needs to be performed to predict the potential problem as early as possible and to prevent core instability events from happening. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requests all BWR licensees to examine each core reload and to impose operating limitations, as appropriate, to ensure compliance with GDC 10 and 12. GDC 10 requires that the reactor core be designed with appropriate margin to assure that specified acceptable fuel design limits will not be exceeded during any condition of normal operation, including anticipated operational occurrences. GDC 12 requires assurance that power oscillations which can result in conditions exceeding specified acceptable fuel design limits are either not possible or can be reliably and readily detected and suppressed. Therefore, the core instability is directly related to the fuel design limits. The core and channel DR (decay ratio) calculation are commonly performed to determine system's stability when new fuel designs are introduced in the core. In order to establish the independent analysis technology for BWR licensees and verifications, the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) has obtained agreement from NRC and implemented the 'Methodology and Procedure for Calculation of Core and Channel Decay Ratios with LAPUR', which was developed by the IBERINCO in 2001. LAPUR5 uses a multi-nodal description of the neutron dynamics, together with a distributed parameter model of the core thermal hydrodynamics to produce a space-dependent representation of the dynamics of a BWR in the frequency domain for small perturbations around a steady state condition. From the output of LAPUR5, the following results are obtained: global core decay ratio, out-of phase core decay ratio, and channel decay ratio. They are key parameters in the determination of BWR core stability
Stability Analysis of a Reaction-Diffusion System Modeling Atherogenesis
Ibragimov, Akif
2010-01-01
This paper presents a linear, asymptotic stability analysis for a reaction-diffusionconvection system modeling atherogenesis, the initiation of atherosclerosis, as an inflammatory instability. Motivated by the disease paradigm articulated by Ross, atherogenesis is viewed as an inflammatory spiral with a positive feedback loop involving key cellular and chemical species interacting and reacting within the intimal layer of muscular arteries. The inflammatory spiral is initiated as an instability from a healthy state which is defined to be an equilibrium state devoid of certain key inflammatory markers. Disease initiation is studied through a linear, asymptotic stability analysis of a healthy equilibrium state. Various theorems are proved, giving conditions on system parameters guaranteeing stability of the health state, and a general framework is developed for constructing perturbations from a healthy state that exhibit blow-up, which are interpreted as corresponding to disease initiation. The analysis reveals key features that arterial geometry, antioxidant levels, and the source of inflammatory components (through coupled third-kind boundary conditions or through body sources) play in disease initiation. © 2010 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others
1996-10-01
The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.
Pressure potential and stability analysis in an acoustical noncontact transportation
Li, J.; Liu, C. J.; Zhang, W. J.
2017-01-01
Near field acoustic traveling wave is one of the most popular principles in noncontact manipulations and transportations. The stability behavior is a key factor in the industrial applications of acoustical noncontact transportation. We present here an in-depth analysis of the transportation stability of a planar object levitated in near field acoustic traveling waves. To more accurately describe the pressure distributions on the radiation surface, a 3D nonlinear traveling wave model is presented. A closed form solution is derived based on the pressure potential to quantitatively calculate the restoring forces and moments under small disturbances. The physical explanations of the effects of fluid inertia and the effects of non-uniform pressure distributions are provided in detail. It is found that a vibration rail with tapered cross section provides more stable transportation than a rail with rectangular cross section. The present study sheds light on the issue of quantitative evaluation of stability in acoustic traveling waves and proposes three main factors that influence the stability: (a) vibration shape, (b) pressure distribution and (c) restoring force/moment. It helps to provide a better understanding of the physics behind the near field acoustic transportation and provide useful design and optimization tools for industrial applications.
Stability Analysis of Receiver ISB for BDS/GPS
Zhang, H.; Hao, J. M.; Tian, Y. G.; Yu, H. L.; Zhou, Y. L.
2017-07-01
Stability analysis of receiver ISB (Inter-System Bias) is essential for understanding the feature of ISB as well as the ISB modeling and prediction. In order to analyze the long-term stability of ISB, the data from MGEX (Multi-GNSS Experiment) covering 3 weeks, which are from 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively, are processed with the precise satellite clock and orbit products provided by Wuhan University and GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ). Using the ISB calculated by BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System)/GPS (Global Positioning System) combined PPP (Precise Point Positioning), the daily stability and weekly stability of ISB are investigated. The experimental results show that the diurnal variation of ISB is stable, and the average of daily standard deviation is about 0.5 ns. The weekly averages and standard deviations of ISB vary greatly in different years. The weekly averages of ISB are relevant to receiver types. There is a system bias between ISB calculated from the precise products provided by Wuhan University and GFZ. In addition, the system bias of the weekly average ISB of different stations is consistent with each other.
Matter suppression of collective SN neutrino oscillations and stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saviano, N.; Chakraborty, S.; Mirizzi, A.
2014-01-01
We perform a detailed analysis of the supernova (SN) neutrino flavor evolution during the early time accretion phase (post-bounce time t pb ≤ 500 ms), characterizing the ν signal by recent SN hydrodynamics simulations. We find that collective oscillations induced the ν-ν interactions in the deepest SN regions are suppressed by trajectory-dependent 'multi-angle' effects associated with the dense ordinary matter. We confirm this result with a linearized stability analysis of the neutrino equations of motion in presence of realistic neutrino energy with angle distributions. (authors)
Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.
2015-08-01
Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...
Stability analysis on natural circulation boiling water reactors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Metz, Peter
1999-05-01
The purpose of the study is a stability analysis of the simplified boiling water reactor concept. A fluid dynamics code, DYNOS, was developed and successfully validated against FRIGG and DESIRE data and a stability benchmark on the Ringhals 1 forced circulation BWR. Three simplified desings were considered in the analysis: The SWRIOOO by Siemens and the SBWR and ESBWR from the General Electric Co. For all three design operational characteristics, i.e. power versus flow rate maps, were calculated. The effects which different geometric and operational parameters, such as the riser height, inlet subcooling etc., have on the characteristics have been investigated. Dynamic simulations on the three simplified design revealed the geysering and the natural circulation oscillations modes only. They were, however, only encountered at pressure below 0.6 MPa. Stability maps for all tree simplified BWRs were calculated and plotted. The study concluded that a fast pressurisation of the reactor vessel is necessary to eliminate the possibility of geysering or natural circulation oscillations mode instability. (au) 26 tabs., 88 ills.
Stability analysis on natural circulation boiling water reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Metz, Peter
1999-05-01
The purpose of the study is a stability analysis of the simplified boiling water reactor concept. A fluid dynamics code, DYNOS, was developed and successfully validated against FRIGG and DESIRE data and a stability benchmark on the Ringhals 1 forced circulation BWR. Three simplified desings were considered in the analysis: The SWRIOOO by Siemens and the SBWR and ESBWR from the General Electric Co. For all three design operational characteristics, i.e. power versus flow rate maps, were calculated. The effects which different geometric and operational parameters, such as the riser height, inlet subcooling etc., have on the characteristics have been investigated. Dynamic simulations on the three simplified design revealed the geysering and the natural circulation oscillations modes only. They were, however, only encountered at pressure below 0.6 MPa. Stability maps for all tree simplified BWRs were calculated and plotted. The study concluded that a fast pressurisation of the reactor vessel is necessary to eliminate the possibility of geysering or natural circulation oscillations mode instability. (au)
ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CORICI MARIAN CATALIN
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity
Finite element analysis of mechanical stability of coarsened nanoporous gold
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cho, Hoon-Hwe; Chen-Wiegart, Yu-chen Karen; Dunand, David C.
2016-01-01
The mechanical stability of nanoporous gold (np-Au) at various stages of thermal coarsening is studied via finite element analysis under volumetric compression using np-Au architectures imaged via X-ray nano-tomography. As the np-Au is coarsened thermally over ligament sizes ranging from 185 to 465 nm, the pore volume fraction is determinant for the mechanical stability of the coarsened np-Au, unlike the curvature and surface orientation of the ligaments. The computed Young's modulus and yield strength of the structures are compared with the Gibson–Ashby model. The geometry of the structures determines the locations where stress concentrations occur at the onset of yielding.
Stability analysis of the Peregrine solution via squared eigenfunctions
Schober, C. M.; Strawn, M.
2017-10-01
A preliminary numerical investigation involving ensembles of perturbed initial data for the Peregrine soliton (the lowest order rational solution of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation) indicates that it is unstable [16]. In this paper we analytically investigate the linear stability of the Peregrine soliton, appealing to the fact that the Peregrine solution can be viewed as the singular limit of a single mode spatially periodic breathers (SPB). The "squared eigenfunction" connection between the Zakharov-Shabat (Z-S) system and the linearized NLS equation is employed in the stability analysis. Specifically, we determine the eigenfunctions of the Z-S system associated with the Peregrine soliton and construct a family of solutions of the associated linearized NLS (about the Peregrine) in terms of quadratic products of components of the eigenfunctions (i.e., the squared eigenfunction). We find there exist solutions of the linearization that grow exponentially in time, thus showing the Peregrine soliton is linearly unstable.
LOFT pump speed controller stability and accuracy analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Good, R.R.
1978-01-01
Two system modifications to the primary coolant pumps motor generators control systems have recently been completed. The range of pump speed operation has been extended and the scoop tube positioner motor replaced. This has necessitated a re-analysis of PSMG stability throughout its range of operation. System accuracy requirements of less than 4 Hz differential pump speed when operating at less than 35 Hz and 8.5 Hz differential pump speed when operating at greater than 35 Hz can be guaranteed by specifying the gain of the system. The installation of the new scoop tube positioner motor will increase the PSMG system's bandwidth and stability. Low speed pump trips should be carefully evaluated if the pump's operational range is to extend to 10 Hz
Analysis of the hydrodynamic stability of natural circulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olive, J.; Baby, J.P.
1980-01-01
A mathematical model (EOLE) for the analysis of the stability of boilers with natural circulation is discussed. The method employed consists in linearizing one-dimensional flow equations and in integrating them while employing the Laplace transformation. The properties of a two-phase fluid are schematized by a homogeneous model with slip. The computation results in the circulation loop transfer functions and its natural modes of oscillation (frequency and damping). A discussion follows which compares results obtained with this method to those of other existing models in the case of a straight pipe with forced circulation. Agreement proved to be satisfactory. The results are then given of a parametric study involving the stability of a PWR natural circulation steam generator. These results show that the model can satisfy, at least qualitatively, trends observed empirically or obtained with other more complex theoretical models. (author)
Modelling and finite-time stability analysis of psoriasis pathogenesis
Oza, Harshal B.; Pandey, Rakesh; Roper, Daniel; Al-Nuaimi, Yusur; Spurgeon, Sarah K.; Goodfellow, Marc
2017-08-01
A new systems model of psoriasis is presented and analysed from the perspective of control theory. Cytokines are treated as actuators to the plant model that govern the cell population under the reasonable assumption that cytokine dynamics are faster than the cell population dynamics. The analysis of various equilibria is undertaken based on singular perturbation theory. Finite-time stability and stabilisation have been studied in various engineering applications where the principal paradigm uses non-Lipschitz functions of the states. A comprehensive study of the finite-time stability properties of the proposed psoriasis dynamics is carried out. It is demonstrated that the dynamics are finite-time convergent to certain equilibrium points rather than asymptotically or exponentially convergent. This feature of finite-time convergence motivates the development of a modified version of the Michaelis-Menten function, frequently used in biology. This framework is used to model cytokines as fast finite-time actuators.
Stability Analysis of a Variant of the Prony Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rodney Jaramillo
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Prony type methods are used in many engineering applications to determine the exponential fit corresponding to a dataset. In this paper we study a variant of Prony's method that was used by Martín-Landrove et al., in a process of segmentation of T2-weighted MRI brain images. We show the equivalence between that method and the classical Prony method and study the stability of the computed solutions with respect to noise in the data set. In particular, we show that the relative error in the calculation of the exponential fit parameters is linear with respect to noise in the data. Our analysis is based on classical results from linear algebra, matrix computation theory, and the theory of stability for roots of polynomials.
Structural stability analysis considerations in fusion reactor plasma chamber design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delaney, M.J.; Cramer, B.A.
1978-01-01
This paper presents an approach to analyzing a toroidal plasma chamber for the prevention of both static and dynamic buckling. Results of stability analyses performed for the doublet shaped plasma chamber of the General Atomic 3.8 meter radius TNS ignition test reactor are presented. Load conditions are the static external atmospheric pressure load and the dynamic plasma disruption pulse load. Methods for analysis of plasma chamber structures are presented for both types of load. Analysis for static buckling is based on idealizing the plasma chamber into standard structural shapes and applying classical cylinder and circular torus buckling equations. Results are verified using the Buckling of Shells of Revolution (BOSOR4) finite difference computer code. Analysis for the dynamic loading is based on a pulse buckling analysis method for circular cylinders
Stability analysis of maize hybrids across north west of Pakistan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahman, H.; Durreshawar; Ali, S.; Iftikhar, F.; Khalil, I.H.; Shah, S.M.A.; Ahmad, H.
2010-01-01
Stability analysis was carried out to study stability in performance and genotype x environment interactions for 18 maize hybrids across three locations of NWFP i.e., Agricultural University Peshawar (AUP), Agricultural Research Station (ARS), Baffa, (Mansehra) and Cereal Crops Research Institute (CCRI), Pirsabak (Nowshera), during 2006. Data were recorded on different morphological and yield parameters. Analysis of variance indicated significant differences among the three locations for all the traits studied. Hybrids showed significant differences for all parameters except anthesis silking interval (ASI) and ear height, which were non significant across the three locations. The hybrid x location interactions also revealed significant differences for days to 50% silking, days to 50% anthesis, ASI, grain moisture at harvest and grain yield per hectare while non significant differences were observed for plant height and ear height. Based on yield performance of hybrids across the three locations, Baffa ranked first as compared to the other two locations. Hybrid DK-1 x EV-9806 was the highest yielding across the three locations followed by hybrid AGB-108, while the lowest yield was observed for hybrid CSCY. Stability in performance was evident for hybrid CS-2Y2 with regard to days required for silking and anthesis. Stability in anthesis silking interval (ASI) was manifested for hybrid CS-222. Hybrid AGB-108 was comparatively stable for grain yield across the tested locations. Remaining hybrids seemed to be considerably influenced by Genotype x environment interactions encountered at the tested locations and location specific selection has to be made while selecting a maize hybrid for a particular location. (author)
Political Culture and Risk Analysis: An Outline of Somalia, Tunisia, and Libya
2016-11-21
unrest, outside stakeholders will always have concerns regarding any signs of institu- tional, economic, political , and social instability . From...predictability, stability , continuity, and security, 40 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal serving as a filter for all subsequent (collective...armed conflict and its accompanying instability has remained. 46 Political Culture and Risk Analysis MCU Journal The 30 years preceding 1991 was
Tear film stability analysis system: introducing a new application for videokeratography.
Goto, Tomoko; Zheng, Xiaodong; Okamoto, Shigeki; Ohashi, Yuichi
2004-11-01
To review our previous studies regarding the development of a tear stability analysis system (TSAS) using videokeratography and the clinical application of TSAS for evaluation of tear film stability in patients subject to laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). New software, namely TSAS, was developed for the videokeratography system TMS-2N (topographic modeling system). TSAS automatically captures consecutive corneal surface images every second for 10 seconds. Corneal topographs were analyzed for tear breakup time (TMS-BUT) and tear breakup area (TMS-BUA, the ratio of breakup area to entire color-code area). First, we recruited volunteers to test the sensitivity and specificity of this new system in comparison with the routine method for tear stability analysis, tear film breakup time evaluation by slit-lamp microscope (SLE-BUT), with fluorescence staining. Second, we investigated the practicability of TSAS in dynamic evaluation of tear film stability before and after LASIK. TMS-BUT had a positive correlation with SLE-BUT, whereas TMS-BUA showed a negative correlation. Although they showed similar rates of specificity as SLE-BUT, the sensitivity rates of TMS-BUT and TMS-BUA were 97.5% and 95%, respectively, significantly higher than that of SLE-BUT (75%). The study on patients subject to LASIK showed that tear film stability significantly decreased during the early time period following LASIK and resolved at 6 months after surgery. Eyes that had abnormal TSAS evaluation tended to have higher risk of developing superficial punctuate keratitis and dry eye symptoms after LASIK, and their responses to treatment were slow. TSAS is a noninvasive and objective method with higher sensitivity for tear film stability analysis than SLE-BUT.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad H. Al-Malack
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Fuel oil flyash (FFA produced in power and water desalination plants firing crude oils in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is being disposed in landfills, which increases the burden on the environment, therefore, FFA utilization must be encouraged. In the current research, the effect of adding FFA on the engineering properties of two indigenous soils, namely sand and marl, was investigated. FFA was added at concentrations of 5%, 10% and 15% to both soils with and without the addition of Portland cement. Mixtures of the stabilized soils were thoroughly evaluated using compaction, California Bearing Ratio (CBR, unconfined compressive strength (USC and durability tests. Results of these tests indicated that stabilized sand mixtures could not attain the ACI strength requirements. However, marl was found to satisfy the ACI strength requirement when only 5% of FFA was added together with 5% of cement. When the FFA was increased to 10% and 15%, the mixture’s strength was found to decrease to values below the ACI requirements. Results of the Toxicity Characteristics Leaching Procedure (TCLP, which was performed on samples that passed the ACI requirements, indicated that FFA must be cautiously used in soil stabilization.
Stability analysis of chalk sea cliffs using UAV photogrammetry
Barlow, John; Gilham, Jamie
2017-04-01
Cliff erosion and instability poses a significant hazard to communities and infrastructure located is coastal areas. We use point cloud and spectral data derived from close range digital photogrammetry to assess the stability of chalk sea cliffs located at Telscombe, UK. Data captured from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) were used to generate dense point clouds for a 712 m section of cliff face which ranges from 20 to 49 m in height. Generated models fitted our ground control network within a standard error of 0.03 m. Structural features such as joints, bedding planes, and faults were manually mapped and are consistent with results from other studies that have been conducted using direct measurement in the field. Kinematic analysis of these data was used to identify the primary modes of failure at the site. Our results indicate that wedge failure is by far the most likely mode of slope instability. An analysis of sequential surveys taken from the summer of 2016 to the winter of 2017 indicate several large failures have occurred at the site. We establish the volume of failure through change detection between sequential data sets and use back analysis to determine the strength of shear surfaces for each failure. Our results show that data capture through UAV photogrammetry can provide useful information for slope stability analysis over long sections of cliff. The use of this technology offers significant benefits in equipment costs and field time over existing methods.
Mood-stabilizing pharmacological treatment in bipolar disorders and risk of suicide
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søndergård, Lars; Lopez, A.G.; Andersen, Per Kragh
2008-01-01
Objectives: This study investigated the association between continued mood-stabilizing treatment (lithium and anticonvulsants) in bipolar disorder (BD) and the risk of suicide. Methods: Using linkage of national registers, the association between continued mood-stabilizing treatment and suicide...... first treated with lithium and patients first treated with anticonvulsants: patients who continued treatment with mood-stabilizing drugs had a decreased rate of suicide compared to patients who purchased mood stabilizers once only [rate ratio for anticonvulsants = 0.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0...... was investigated among all patients discharged nationwide from hospital psychiatry as an in- or outpatient in a period from 1995 to 2000 in Denmark with a diagnosis of BD. Results: A total of 5,926 patients were included in the study and among these 51 patients committed suicide eventually during the study period...
Mood-stabilizing pharmacological treatment in bipolar disorders and risk of suicide
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søndergård, Lars; Lopez, Ana Garcia; Andersen, Per Kragh
2008-01-01
OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the association between continued mood-stabilizing treatment (lithium and anticonvulsants) in bipolar disorder (BD) and the risk of suicide. METHODS: Using linkage of national registers, the association between continued mood-stabilizing treatment and suicide...... first treated with lithium and patients first treated with anticonvulsants: patients who continued treatment with mood-stabilizing drugs had a decreased rate of suicide compared to patients who purchased mood stabilizers once only [rate ratio for anticonvulsants = 0.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0...... was investigated among all patients discharged nationwide from hospital psychiatry as an in- or outpatient in a period from 1995 to 2000 in Denmark with a diagnosis of BD. RESULTS: A total of 5,926 patients were included in the study and among these 51 patients committed suicide eventually during the study period...
A more general model for the analysis of the rock slope stability
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
slope stability analysis, the joint surfaces are assumed to be continuous along the potential ... of rock slope stability has many applications in the design of rock slopes, roofs and walls of .... cases the wedge failure analysis can be applied.
Stability and Change in Risk-Taking Propensity Across the Adult Lifespan
Josef, Anika K.; Richter, David; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.; Wagner, Gert G.; Hertwig, Ralph; Mata, Rui
2016-01-01
Can risk-taking propensity be thought of as a trait that captures individual differences across domains, measures, and time? Studying stability in risk-taking propensities across the lifespan can help to answer such questions by uncovering parallel, or divergent, trajectories across domains and measures. We contribute to this effort by using data from respondents aged 18 to 85 in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and by examining (1) differential stability, (2) mean-level differences, and (3) individual-level changes in self-reported general (N = 44,076) and domain-specific (N =11,903) risk-taking propensities across adulthood. In addition, we investigate (4) the correspondence between cross-sectional trajectories of self-report and behavioral measures of social (trust game; N = 646) and nonsocial (monetary gamble; N = 433) risk taking. The results suggest that risk-taking propensity can be understood as a trait with moderate stability. Results show reliable mean-level differences across the lifespan, with risk-taking propensities typically decreasing with age, although significant variation emerges across domains and individuals. Interestingly, the mean-level trajectory for behavioral measures of social and nonsocial risk taking was similar to those obtained from self-reported risk, despite small correlations between task behavior and self-reports. Individual-level analyses suggest a link between changes in risk-taking propensities both across domains and in relation to changes in some of the Big Five personality traits. Overall, these results raise important questions concerning the role of common processes or events that shape the lifespan development of risk-taking across domains as well as other major personality facets. PMID:26820061
Overeating and Binge Eating in Emerging Adulthood: 10-Year Stability and Risk Factors
Goldschmidt, Andrea B.; Wall, Melanie M.; Zhang, Jun; Loth, Katie A.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne
2016-01-01
Overeating (eating an unusually large amount of food) and binge eating (overeating with loss of control [LOC]) predict adverse health consequences in adolescence. We aimed to characterize the stability of and risk factors for these distinct but interrelated constructs during critical developmental transitions. We used a population-based sample (n…
LISA Pathfinder E2E performance simulation: optical and self-gravity stability analysis
Brandt, N.; Fichter, W.; Kersten, M.; Lucarelli, S.; Montemurro, F.
2005-05-01
End-to-end (E2E) modelling and simulation, i.e. verifying the science performance of LISA Pathfinder (spacecraft and payload), is mandatory in order to minimize mission risks. In this paper, focus is on two particular applications of the E2E performance simulator currently being developed at EADS Astrium GmbH: the opto-dynamical stability and the self-gravity disturbance stability analysis. The E2E models applied here comprise the opto-dynamical modelling of the optical metrology systems (OMS) laser interferometry, the thermo-elastic distortion modelling of the OMS optical elements and the self-gravity disturbance model accounting for structural distortions. Preliminary analysis results are presented in detail, identifying shortcomings of the current LISA technology package (LTP) mounting baseline. As a consequence, the design is now being revised.
LISA Pathfinder E2E performance simulation: optical and self-gravity stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandt, N; Fichter, W; Kersten, M; Lucarelli, S; Montemurro, F
2005-01-01
End-to-end (E2E) modelling and simulation, i.e. verifying the science performance of LISA Pathfinder (spacecraft and payload), is mandatory in order to minimize mission risks. In this paper, focus is on two particular applications of the E2E performance simulator currently being developed at EADS Astrium GmbH: the opto-dynamical stability and the self-gravity disturbance stability analysis. The E2E models applied here comprise the opto-dynamical modelling of the optical metrology systems (OMS) laser interferometry, the thermo-elastic distortion modelling of the OMS optical elements and the self-gravity disturbance model accounting for structural distortions. Preliminary analysis results are presented in detail, identifying shortcomings of the current LISA technology package (LTP) mounting baseline. As a consequence, the design is now being revised
Advanced methods for BWR transient and stability analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schmidt, A; Wehle, F; Opel, S; Velten, R [AREVA, AREVA NP, Erlangen (Germany)
2008-07-01
The design of advanced Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel assemblies and cores is governed by the basic requirement of safe, reliable and flexible reactor operation with optimal fuel utilization. AREVA NP's comprehensive steady state and transient BWR methodology allows the designer to respond quickly and effectively to customer needs. AREVA NP uses S-RELAP5/RAMONA as the appropriate methodology for the representation of the entire plant. The 3D neutron kinetics and thermal-hydraulics code has been developed for the prediction of system, fuel and core behavior and provides additional margins for normal operation and transients. Of major importance is the extensive validation of the methodology. The validation is based on measurements at AREVA NP's test facilities, and comparison of the predictions with a great wealth of measured data gathered from BWR plants during many years of operation. Three of the main fields of interest are stability analysis, operational transients and reactivity initiated accidents (RIAs). The introduced 3D methodology for operational transients shows significant margin regarding the operational limit of critical power ratio, which has been approved by the German licensing authority. Regarding BWR stability a large number of measurements at different plants under various conditions have been performed and successfully post-calculated with RAMONA. This is the basis of reliable pre-calculations of the locations of regional and core-wide stability boundaries. (authors)
Advanced methods for BWR transient and stability analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmidt, A.; Wehle, F.; Opel, S.; Velten, R.
2008-01-01
The design of advanced Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel assemblies and cores is governed by the basic requirement of safe, reliable and flexible reactor operation with optimal fuel utilization. AREVA NP's comprehensive steady state and transient BWR methodology allows the designer to respond quickly and effectively to customer needs. AREVA NP uses S-RELAP5/RAMONA as the appropriate methodology for the representation of the entire plant. The 3D neutron kinetics and thermal-hydraulics code has been developed for the prediction of system, fuel and core behavior and provides additional margins for normal operation and transients. Of major importance is the extensive validation of the methodology. The validation is based on measurements at AREVA NP's test facilities, and comparison of the predictions with a great wealth of measured data gathered from BWR plants during many years of operation. Three of the main fields of interest are stability analysis, operational transients and reactivity initiated accidents (RIAs). The introduced 3D methodology for operational transients shows significant margin regarding the operational limit of critical power ratio, which has been approved by the German licensing authority. Regarding BWR stability a large number of measurements at different plants under various conditions have been performed and successfully post-calculated with RAMONA. This is the basis of reliable pre-calculations of the locations of regional and core-wide stability boundaries. (authors)
Physical Analysis Work for Slope Stability at Shah Alam, Selangor
Ishak, M. F.; Zaini, M. S. I.
2018-04-01
Slope stability analysis is performed to assess the equilibrium conditions and the safe design of a human-made or natural slope to find the endangered areas. Investigation of potential failure and determination of the slope sensitivity with regard to safety, reliability and economics were parts of this study. Ground anchor is designed to support a structure in this study. Ground anchor were implemented at the Mechanically Stabilized Earth (MSE) wall along Anak Persiaran Jubli Perak to overcome the further cracking of pavement parking, concrete deck and building of the Apartments. A result from the laboratory testing of soil sample such as index test and shear strength test were applied to the Slope/W software with regard to the ground anchors that were implemented. The ground anchors were implemented to increase the value of the factor of safety (FOS) of the MSE Wall. The value of the factor of safety (FOS) before implementing the ground anchor was 0.800 and after the ground anchor was implemented the value increase to 1.555. The increase percentage of factor of safety by implementing on stability of slope was 94.38%.
Resistive MHD Stability Analysis in Near Real-time
Glasser, Alexander; Kolemen, Egemen
2017-10-01
We discuss the feasibility of a near real-time calculation of the tokamak Δ' matrix, which summarizes MHD stability to resistive modes, such as tearing and interchange modes. As the operational phase of ITER approaches, solutions for active feedback tokamak stability control are needed. It has been previously demonstrated that an ideal MHD stability analysis is achievable on a sub- O (1 s) timescale, as is required to control phenomena comparable with the MHD-evolution timescale of ITER. In the present work, we broaden this result to incorporate the effects of resistive MHD modes. Such modes satisfy ideal MHD equations in regions outside narrow resistive layers that form at singular surfaces. We demonstrate that the use of asymptotic expansions at the singular surfaces, as well as the application of state transition matrices, enable a fast, parallelized solution to the singular outer layer boundary value problem, and thereby rapidly compute Δ'. Sponsored by US DOE under DE-SC0015878 and DE-FC02-04ER54698.
Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument
Schwalbe, Craig S.
2009-01-01
The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…
Ionic liquid thermal stabilities: decomposition mechanisms and analysis tools.
Maton, Cedric; De Vos, Nils; Stevens, Christian V
2013-07-07
The increasing amount of papers published on ionic liquids generates an extensive quantity of data. The thermal stability data of divergent ionic liquids are collected in this paper with attention to the experimental set-up. The influence and importance of the latter parameters are broadly addressed. Both ramped temperature and isothermal thermogravimetric analysis are discussed, along with state-of-the-art methods, such as TGA-MS and pyrolysis-GC. The strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies known to date demonstrate that analysis methods should be in line with the application. The combination of data from advanced analysis methods allows us to obtain in-depth information on the degradation processes. Aided with computational methods, the kinetics and thermodynamics of thermal degradation are revealed piece by piece. The better understanding of the behaviour of ionic liquids at high temperature allows selective and application driven design, as well as mathematical prediction for engineering purposes.
Analysis and Prediction of Micromilling Stability with Variable Tool Geometry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ziyang Cao
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Micromilling can fabricate miniaturized components using micro-end mill at high rotational speeds. The analysis of machining stability in micromilling plays an important role in characterizing the cutting process, estimating the tool life, and optimizing the process. A numerical analysis and experimental method are presented to investigate the chatter stability in micro-end milling process with variable milling tool geometry. The schematic model of micromilling process is constructed and the calculation formula to predict cutting force and displacements is derived. This is followed by a detailed numerical analysis on micromilling forces between helical ball and square end mills through time domain and frequency domain method and the results are compared. Furthermore, a detailed time domain simulation for micro end milling with straight teeth and helical teeth end mill is conducted based on the machine-tool system frequency response function obtained through modal experiment. The forces and displacements are predicted and the simulation result between variable cutter geometry is deeply compared. The simulation results have important significance for the actual milling process.
Risk analysis and safety rationale
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bengtsson, G.
1989-01-01
Decision making with respect to safety is becoming more and more complex. The risk involved must be taken into account together with numerous other factors such as the benefits, the uncertainties and the public perception. Can the decision maker be aided by some kind of system, general rules of thumb, or broader perspective on similar decisions? This question has been addressed in a joint Nordic project relating to nuclear power. Modern techniques for risk assessment and management have been studied, and parallels drawn to such areas as offshore safety and management of toxic chemicals in the environment. The report summarises the finding of 5 major technical reports which have been published in the NORD-series. The topics includes developments, uncertainties and limitations in probabilistic safety assessments, negligible risks, risk-cost trade-offs, optimisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection, and the role of risks in the decision making process. (author) 84 refs
A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)
Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying
2005-01-01
The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.
Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.
Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu
2016-01-01
Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.
PRA and Risk Informed Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bernsen, Sidney A.; Simonen, Fredric A.; Balkey, Kenneth R.
2006-01-01
The Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has introduced a risk based approach into Section XI that covers Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant Components. The risk based approach requires application of the probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). Because no industry consensus standard existed for PRAs, ASME has developed a standard to evaluate the quality level of an available PRA needed to support a given risk based application. The paper describes the PRA standard, Section XI application of PRAs, and plans for broader applications of PRAs to other ASME nuclear codes and standards. The paper addresses several specific topics of interest to Section XI. Important consideration are special methods (surrogate components) used to overcome the lack of PRA treatments of passive components in PRAs. The approach allows calculations of conditional core damage probabilities both for component failures that cause initiating events and failures in standby systems that decrease the availability of these systems. The paper relates the explicit risk based methods of the new Section XI code cases to the implicit consideration of risk used in the development of Section XI. Other topics include the needed interactions of ISI engineers, plant operating staff, PRA specialists, and members of expert panels that review the risk based programs
Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.
Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H
2017-08-01
With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.
2010-07-01
... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...
Stability analysis of hybrid-driven underwater glider
Niu, Wen-dong; Wang, Shu-xin; Wang, Yan-hui; Song, Yang; Zhu, Ya-qiang
2017-10-01
Hybrid-driven underwater glider is a new type of unmanned underwater vehicle, which combines the advantages of autonomous underwater vehicles and traditional underwater gliders. The autonomous underwater vehicles have good maneuverability and can travel with a high speed, while the traditional underwater gliders are highlighted by low power consumption, long voyage, long endurance and good stealth characteristics. The hybrid-driven underwater gliders can realize variable motion profiles by their own buoyancy-driven and propeller propulsion systems. Stability of the mechanical system determines the performance of the system. In this paper, the Petrel-II hybrid-driven underwater glider developed by Tianjin University is selected as the research object and the stability of hybrid-driven underwater glider unitedly controlled by buoyancy and propeller has been targeted and evidenced. The dimensionless equations of the hybrid-driven underwater glider are obtained when the propeller is working. Then, the steady speed and steady glide path angle under steady-state motion have also been achieved. The steady-state operating conditions can be calculated when the hybrid-driven underwater glider reaches the desired steady-state motion. And the steadystate operating conditions are relatively conservative at the lower bound of the velocity range compared with the range of the velocity derived from the method of the composite Lyapunov function. By calculating the hydrodynamic coefficients of the Petrel-II hybrid-driven underwater glider, the simulation analysis has been conducted. In addition, the results of the field trials conducted in the South China Sea and the Danjiangkou Reservoir of China have been presented to illustrate the validity of the analysis and simulation, and to show the feasibility of the method of the composite Lyapunov function which verifies the stability of the Petrel-II hybrid-driven underwater glider.
Landslide stability analysis on basis of LIDAR data extraction
Hu, Hui; Fernandez-Steeger, Tomas M.; Dong, Mei; Azzam, Rafig
2010-05-01
Currently, existing contradictory between remediation and acquisition from natural resource induces a series of divergences. With regard to open pit mining, legal regulation requires human to fill back the open pit area with water or recreate new landscape by other materials; on the other hand, human can not help excavating the mining area due to the shortage of power resource. However, to engineering geologists, one coincident problem which takes place not only in filling but also in mining operation should be paid more attention to, i.e. the slope stability analysis within these areas. There are a number of construction activities during remediation or mining process which can directly or indirectly cause slope failure. Lives can be endangered since local failure either while or after remediation; for mining process, slope failure in a bench, which carries a main haul road or is adjacent to human activity area, would be significant catastrophe to the whole mining program. The stability of an individual bench or slope is controlled by several factors, which are geological condition, morphology, climate, excavation techniques and transportation approach. The task which takes the longest time is to collect the morphological data. Consequently, it is one of the most dangerous tasks due to the time consuming in mining field. LIDAR scanning for morphological data collecting can help to skip this obstacle since advantages of LIDAR techniques as follows: • Dynamic range available on the market: from 3 m to beyond 1 km, • Ruggedly designed for demanding field applications, • Compact, easily hand-carried and deployed by a single operator. In 2009, scanning campaigns for 2 open pit quarry have been carried out. The aim for these LIDAR detections is to construct a detailed 3D quarry model and analyze the bench stability to support the filling planning. The 3D quarry surface was built up by using PolyWorks 10.1 on basis of LIDAR data. LIDAR data refining takes an
An Effective Distributed Model for Power System Transient Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MUTHU, B. M.
2011-08-01
Full Text Available The modern power systems consist of many interconnected synchronous generators having different inertia constants, connected with large transmission network and ever increasing demand for power exchange. The size of the power system grows exponentially due to increase in power demand. The data required for various power system applications have been stored in different formats in a heterogeneous environment. The power system applications themselves have been developed and deployed in different platforms and language paradigms. Interoperability between power system applications becomes a major issue because of the heterogeneous nature. The main aim of the paper is to develop a generalized distributed model for carrying out power system stability analysis. The more flexible and loosely coupled JAX-RPC model has been developed for representing transient stability analysis in large interconnected power systems. The proposed model includes Pre-Fault, During-Fault, Post-Fault and Swing Curve services which are accessible to the remote power system clients when the system is subjected to large disturbances. A generalized XML based model for data representation has also been proposed for exchanging data in order to enhance the interoperability between legacy power system applications. The performance measure, Round Trip Time (RTT is estimated for different power systems using the proposed JAX-RPC model and compared with the results obtained using traditional client-server and Java RMI models.
Peach bottom cycle 2 stability analysis using RELAP5/PARCS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maggini, F.; D'Auria, F.; Miro, R.; Verdu, G.; Ginestar, D.
2003-01-01
Boiling channels and systems may oscillate owing to the behaviour of the liquid-steam mixture used for removing the thermal power. A thermal-hydraulic system may be unstable under particular operating conditions. Two kinds of power oscillation have been observed in BWR cores. One is an in-phase (core-wide) and the other is an out-of-phase (regional) oscillation. Since the above feature can make detection more difficult, the latter oscillation is potentially more severe. The problem is well known since the design of the first BWR system. However, to improve the safety systems of these reactors, it is necessary to be able to detect in a reliable way these oscillations from the neutronic signals. The purpose of this work is to characterize the unstable behaviour of a BWR. Within this study, it has been performed a number of perturbation analysis. The coupled codes RELAP5-Mod3.3/PARCS have used for the simulation of the transients. Validation has been performed against Peach Bottom-2 Low-Flow Stability Test PT3. Three dimensional time domain BWR stability analysis were performed on test point 3 for the core wide oscillation mode. In this transient dynamically complex events take place, i.e., neutron kinetics is coupled with thermal-hydraulics and an in-phase oscillation has been developed. The calculated results are compared against the available experimental data. (author)
Floquet stability analysis of viscoelastic flow over a cylinder
Richter, David
2011-06-01
A Floquet linear stability analysis has been performed on a viscoelastic cylinder wake. The FENE-P model is used to represent the non-Newtonian fluid, and the analysis is done using a modified version of an existing nonlinear code to compute the linearized initial value problem governing the growth of small perturbations in the wake. By measuring instability growth rates over a wide range of disturbance spanwise wavenumbers α, the effects of viscoelasticity were identified and compared directly to Newtonian results.At a Reynolds number of 300, two unstable bands exist over the range 0. ≤ α≤ 10 for Newtonian flow. For the low α band, associated with the "mode A" wake instability, a monotonic reduction in growth rates is found for increasing polymer extensibility L. For the high α band, associated with the "mode B" instability, first a rise, then a significant decrease to a stable state is found for the instability growth rates as L is increased from L= 10 to L= 30. The mechanism behind this stabilization of both mode A and mode B instabilities is due to the change of the base flow, rather than a direct effect of viscoelasticity on the perturbation. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Floquet stability analysis of viscoelastic flow over a cylinder
Richter, David; Shaqfeh, Eric S.G.; Iaccarino, Gianluca
2011-01-01
A Floquet linear stability analysis has been performed on a viscoelastic cylinder wake. The FENE-P model is used to represent the non-Newtonian fluid, and the analysis is done using a modified version of an existing nonlinear code to compute the linearized initial value problem governing the growth of small perturbations in the wake. By measuring instability growth rates over a wide range of disturbance spanwise wavenumbers α, the effects of viscoelasticity were identified and compared directly to Newtonian results.At a Reynolds number of 300, two unstable bands exist over the range 0. ≤ α≤ 10 for Newtonian flow. For the low α band, associated with the "mode A" wake instability, a monotonic reduction in growth rates is found for increasing polymer extensibility L. For the high α band, associated with the "mode B" instability, first a rise, then a significant decrease to a stable state is found for the instability growth rates as L is increased from L= 10 to L= 30. The mechanism behind this stabilization of both mode A and mode B instabilities is due to the change of the base flow, rather than a direct effect of viscoelasticity on the perturbation. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, J.R.
1979-01-01
This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)
van Aarle, B.; Engwerda, Jacob; Weeren, A.J.T.M.
2017-01-01
This paper analyses debt stabilization in a monetary union that features endogenous risk premia. In particular, debt stabilization in two diametrically opposed regimes is compared. In the first regime, the “national fiscal discipline regime”, financial markets impose sovereign risk premia based on
Stability Analysis for Rotating Stall Dynamics in Axial Flow Compressors
1999-01-01
modes determines collectively local stability of the compressor model. Explicit conditions are obtained for local stability of rotating stall which...critical modes determines the stability for rotating stall collectively . We point out that although in a special case our stability condition for...strict crossing assumption implies that the zero solution changes its stability as ~, crosses ~’c. For instance, odk (yc ) > 0 implies that the zero
Analysis of power system collapse risk
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.
2012-01-01
In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)
Reliability and validity of risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar
2009-01-01
In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.
Effects of rapid maxillary expansion on head posture, postural stability, and fall risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fatih Celebi
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME on head posture, postural stability, and fall risk. Materials and Methods: A sample of 51 adolescent patients was randomly divided into two groups. In the first group, which consisted of 28 patients (15 females and 13 males, RME was performed as a part of routine orthodontic treatment. The remaining 23 individuals (12 females and 11 males served as the control group. Lateral cephalometric radiographs taken in natural head position, postural stability, and fall risk scores were obtained during the first visit. They were repeated on average 3.8 months and 3.5 months later for the study and control groups, respectively. The changes were analyzed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, paired samples t-test, Mann–Whitney U-test, and independent samples t-test. Results: As a result of RME, a statistically significant decrease was detected in the fall risk score (P < 0.05 in the study group, while the head position and postural stability remained unchanged. For the control group, no significant changes were observed in all measurements. Conclusions: The result of the present study suggests that RME has a capacity of improving fall risk.
Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hauptmanns, U.
1988-01-01
Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)
Stability analysis of offshore wind farm and marine current farm
Shawon, Mohammad Hasanuzzaman
-trend for large electric energy production using offshore wind generators and marine current generators, respectively. Thus DFIG based offshore wind farm can be an economic solution to stabilize squirrel cage induction generator based marine current farm without installing any addition FACTS devices. This thesis first focuses on the stabilization of fixed speed IG based marine current farm using SDBR. Also stabilization of DFIG based variable speed wind farm utilizing SDBR is studied in this work. Finally a co-operative control strategy is proposed where DFIG is controlled in such a way that it can even provide necessary reactive power demand of induction generator, so that additional cost of FACTS devices can be avoided. In that way, the DFIGs of the offshore wind farm (OWF) will actively compensate the reactive power demand of adjacent IGs of the marine current farm (MCF) during grid fault. Detailed modeling and control scheme for the proposed system are demonstrated considering some realistic scenarios. The power system small signal stability analysis is also carried out by eigenvalue analysis for marine current generator topology, wind turbine generator topology and integrated topology. The relation between the modes and state variables are discussed in light of modal and sensitivity analyses. The results of theoretical analyses are verified by MATLAB/SIMULINK and laboratory standard power system simulator PSCAD/EMTDC.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazur, A.
1985-01-01
Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references
Collision Risk Analysis for HSC
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup
1999-01-01
High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...
Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.
1989-01-01
A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis
Stability of tapered and parallel-walled dental implants: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Atieh, Momen A; Alsabeeha, Nabeel; Duncan, Warwick J
2018-05-15
Clinical trials have suggested that dental implants with a tapered configuration have improved stability at placement, allowing immediate placement and/or loading. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the implant stability of tapered dental implants compared to standard parallel-walled dental implants. Applying the guidelines of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched for in electronic databases and complemented by hand searching. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool and data were analyzed using statistical software. A total of 1199 studies were identified, of which, five trials were included with 336 dental implants in 303 participants. Overall meta-analysis showed that tapered dental implants had higher implant stability values than parallel-walled dental implants at insertion and 8 weeks but the difference was not statistically significant. Tapered dental implants had significantly less marginal bone loss compared to parallel-walled dental implants. No significant differences in implant failure rate were found between tapered and parallel-walled dental implants. There is limited evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of tapered dental implants in achieving greater implant stability compared to parallel-walled dental implants. Superior short-term results in maintaining peri-implant marginal bone with tapered dental implants are possible. Further properly designed RCTs are required to endorse the supposed advantages of tapered dental implants in immediate loading protocol and other complex clinical scenarios. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Stability analysis of an uncooled segment of superconductor
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Seol, S. Y. [Chonnam National University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)
2017-09-15
If the part of the HTS magnet is exposed to the outside of the cryogenic coolant due to the fluctuation of the height of the cooling liquid or the vapor generation, the uncooled part becomes very unstable. In this paper, the unstable equilibrium temperature distribution of the uncooled part of a superconductor is obtained, and the maximum temperature and energy are calculated as a function of the uncooled length. Similar to the superconductor stability problem, the current sharing model was applied to derive the theoretical formula and calculated by numerical integration. We also applied a jump model, which assumes that joule heat is generated in all of the uncooled segment, and compares it with the current sharing model results. As a result of the analysis, the stable equilibrium state and the critical uncooled length in the jump model are not shown in the current sharing model. The stability of the conductors to external disturbances was discussed based on the obtained temperature distribution, maximum temperature, and energy.
Analysis of the stability of events occurred in Laguna Verde
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castillo D, R.; Ortiz V, J.; Calleros M, G.
2005-01-01
The new fuel designs for operation cycles more long have regions of uncertainty bigger that those of the old fuels, and therefore, they can have oscillations of power when an event is presented that causes that the reactor operates to high power and low flow of coolant. During the start up of the reactor there are continued procedures that avoid that oscillations are presented with that which makes sure the stable behavior of the reactor. However, when the reactor is operating to nominal conditions and they are shot or they are transferred to low speed the recirculation pumps, it cannot make sure that the reactor doesn't present oscillations of power when entering to the restricted operation regions. The methods of stability analysis commonly use signs of neutronic noise that require to be stationary, but after a transitory one where they commonly get lost the recirculation pumps the signs they don't have the required characteristics, for what they are used with certain level of uncertainty by the limited validity of the models. In this work the Prony method is used to determine the reactor stability, starting from signs of transitory and it is compared with autoregressive models. Four events are analyzed happened in the Laguna Verde power plant where the reactor was in the area of high power and low flow of coolant, giving satisfactory results. (Author)
Slope Stability Analysis of Waste Dump in Sandstone Open Pit Osielec
Adamczyk, Justyna; Cała, Marek; Flisiak, Jerzy; Kolano, Malwina; Kowalski, Michał
2013-03-01
This paper presents the slope stability analysis for the current as well as projected (final) geometry of waste dump Sandstone Open Pit "Osielec". For the stability analysis six sections were selected. Then, the final geometry of the waste dump was designed and the stability analysis was conducted. On the basis of the analysis results the opportunities to improve the stability of the object were identified. The next issue addressed in the paper was to determine the proportion of the mixture containing mining and processing wastes, for which the waste dump remains stable. Stability calculations were carried out using Janbu method, which belongs to the limit equilibrium methods.
Models and Stability Analysis of Boiling Water Reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dorning, John
2002-01-01
We have studied the nuclear-coupled thermal-hydraulic stability of boiling water reactors (BWRs) using a model that includes: space-time modal neutron kinetics based on spatial w-modes; single- and two-phase flow in parallel boiling channels; fuel rod heat conduction dynamics; and a simple model of the recirculation loop. The BR model is represented by a set of time-dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations, and is studied as a dynamical system using the modern bifurcation theory and nonlinear dynamical systems analysis. We first determine the stability boundary (SB) - or Hopf bifurcation set- in the most relevant parameter plane, the inlet-subcooling-number/external-pressure-drop plane, for a fixed control rod induced external reactivity equal to the 100% rod line value; then we transform the SB to the practical power-flow map used by BWR operating engineers and regulatory agencies. Using this SB, we show that the normal operating point at 100% power is very stable, that stability of points on the 100% rod line decreases as the flow rate is reduced, and that operating points in the low-flow/high-power region are least stable. We also determine the SB that results when the modal kinetics is replaced by simple point reactor kinetics, and we thereby show that the first harmonic mode does not have a significant effect on the SB. However, we later show that it nevertheless has a significant effect on stability because it affects the basin of attraction of stable operating points. Using numerical simulations we show that, in the important low-flow/high-power region, the Hopf bifurcation that occurs as the SB is crossed is subcritical; hence, growing oscillations can result following small finite perturbations of stable steady-states on the 100% rod line at points in the low-flow/high-power region. Numerical simulations are also performed to calculate the decay ratios (DRs) and frequencies of oscillations for various points on the 100% rod line. It is
Models and Stability Analysis of Boiling Water Reactors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
John Dorning
2002-04-15
We have studied the nuclear-coupled thermal-hydraulic stability of boiling water reactors (BWRs) using a model that includes: space-time modal neutron kinetics based on spatial w-modes; single- and two-phase flow in parallel boiling channels; fuel rod heat conduction dynamics; and a simple model of the recirculation loop. The BR model is represented by a set of time-dependent nonlinear ordinary differential equations, and is studied as a dynamical system using the modern bifurcation theory and nonlinear dynamical systems analysis. We first determine the stability boundary (SB) - or Hopf bifurcation set- in the most relevant parameter plane, the inlet-subcooling-number/external-pressure-drop plane, for a fixed control rod induced external reactivity equal to the 100% rod line value; then we transform the SB to the practical power-flow map used by BWR operating engineers and regulatory agencies. Using this SB, we show that the normal operating point at 100% power is very stable, that stability of points on the 100% rod line decreases as the flow rate is reduced, and that operating points in the low-flow/high-power region are least stable. We also determine the SB that results when the modal kinetics is replaced by simple point reactor kinetics, and we thereby show that the first harmonic mode does not have a significant effect on the SB. However, we later show that it nevertheless has a significant effect on stability because it affects the basin of attraction of stable operating points. Using numerical simulations we show that, in the important low-flow/high-power region, the Hopf bifurcation that occurs as the SB is crossed is subcritical; hence, growing oscillations can result following small finite perturbations of stable steady-states on the 100% rod line at points in the low-flow/high-power region. Numerical simulations are also performed to calculate the decay ratios (DRs) and frequencies of oscillations for various points on the 100% rod line. It is
Postural stability and risk of falls per decade of adult life – a pilot study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sieńko-Awierianów Elżbieta
2018-03-01
Full Text Available A gradual loss of function in the balance system may begin in the fourth decade of life. The effects of this process become visible in old age, when problems with postural stability contribute to falls, making it an important social problem. Early detection of this dysfunction is essential for minimizing the risk of age-related falls, one of the main causes of hospitalization or even death in older adults.
Stability analysis for an age-dependent vaccination model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Doma, M.
1993-05-01
The stability of an SIR epidemic model with vaccination is investigated. We determine the steady states and examine their stability. Furthermore, a critical vaccination coverage that will eventually eradicate the disease is determined. (author). 9 refs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ernesto Mordecki
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Some emergent economies present a high financial dollarization in loans and deposits, generating a specific risk in the banking activity. We quantify this exchange credit risk as the price of an option equivalent to this loan, and discuss the financial stability implications due to the (implicit issuance of these options. The exchange rate is modeled through a Levy process. The depth of the market depends on the type of the currencies involved. Whenever possible, we depart from option prices to calibrate a model, like in the EUR/USD market. But if the market is not liquid, as the USD/UYU market, we provide alternative pricing methodologies.
Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jamali, K.
1997-01-01
This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude
Modeling and Stability Analysis of Wedge Clutch System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jian Yao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A wedge clutch with unique features of self-reinforcement and small actuation force was designed. Its self-reinforcement feature, associated with different factors such as the wedge angle and friction coefficient, brings different dynamics and unstable problem with improper parameters. To analyze this system, a complete mathematical model of the actuation system is built, which includes the DC motor, the wedge mechanism, and the actuated clutch pack. By considering several nonlinear factors, such as the slip-stick friction and the contact or not of the clutch plates, the system is piecewise linear. Through the stability analysis of the linearized system in clutch slipping phase, the stable condition of the designed parameters is obtained as α>arctan(μc. The mathematical model of the actuation system is validated by prototype testing. And with the validated model, the system dynamics in both stable and unstable conditions is investigated and discussed in engineering side.
Dynamic Stability Analysis Using High-Order Interpolation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juarez-Toledo C.
2012-10-01
Full Text Available A non-linear model with robust precision for transient stability analysis in multimachine power systems is proposed. The proposed formulation uses the interpolation of Lagrange and Newton's Divided Difference. The High-Order Interpolation technique developed can be used for evaluation of the critical conditions of the dynamic system.The technique is applied to a 5-area 45-machine model of the Mexican interconnected system. As a particular case, this paper shows the application of the High-Order procedure for identifying the slow-frequency mode for a critical contingency. Numerical examples illustrate the method and demonstrate the ability of the High-Order technique to isolate and extract temporal modal behavior.
Stability analysis of a pressure-solution surface
Gal, Doron; Nur, Amos; Aharonov, Einat
We present a linear stability analysis of a dissolution surface subjected to non-hydrostatic stress. A sinusoidal perturbation is imposed on an initially flat solid/fluid interface, and the consequent changes in elastic strain energy and surface energy are calculated. Our results demonstrate that if the far-field lateral stresses are either greater, or much smaller than the fluid pressure, the perturbed configuration has a lower strain energy than the initial one. For wavelengths greater than a critical wavelength this energy decrease may be large enough to offset the increased surface energy. Under these conditions, the perturbation grows unstably. If these conditions are not met, the surface becomes flat. The growth rate and wavelength of the maximally unstable mode depend on the mechanism of matter transport. We conclude that the instability discussed in this paper may account for the formation of stylolites and other pressure-solution phenomena, such as roughening of grain contacts.
Robust stability analysis of adaptation algorithms for single perceptron.
Hui, S; Zak, S H
1991-01-01
The problem of robust stability and convergence of learning parameters of adaptation algorithms in a noisy environment for the single preceptron is addressed. The case in which the same input pattern is presented in the adaptation cycle is analyzed. The algorithm proposed is of the Widrow-Hoff type. It is concluded that this algorithm is robust. However, the weight vectors do not necessarily converge in the presence of measurement noise. A modified version of this algorithm in which the reduction factors are allowed to vary with time is proposed, and it is shown that this algorithm is robust and that the weight vectors converge in the presence of bounded noise. Only deterministic-type arguments are used in the analysis. An ultimate bound on the error in terms of a convex combination of the initial error and the bound on the noise is obtained.
A new method for tear film stability analysis using videokeratography.
Goto, Tomoko; Zheng, Xiaodong; Klyce, Stephen D; Kataoka, Hisashi; Uno, Toshihiko; Karon, Mike; Tatematsu, Yoshiyuki; Bessyo, Takeo; Tsubota, Kazuo; Ohashi, Yuichi
2003-05-01
To report a new tear film stability analysis system using videokeratography. Observational case series. New videokeratography software for TMS-2N (topographic modeling system; TOMEY Corporation, Nagoya, Japan) was developed that can automatically capture consecutive corneal surface images every second for 10 seconds. Forty-eight adult volunteers (80 eyes) were recruited for this study, and all subjects were examined with the new system. Corneal topographs were analyzed for tear breakup time (TMS-BUT) and the ratio of breakup area to entire color-code area (TMS-BUA) was calculated. Routine methods for tear film breakup time evaluation using slit-lamp microscope and fluorescence staining (SLE-BUT) were performed for comparison purposes. Regressive correlations of TMS-BUT or TMS-BUA with SLE-BUT were analyzed. Based on SLE results, subjects were separated into two groups with normal and short BUT, respectively. TMS-BUT and TMS-BUA were compared with SLE-BUT data with regard to the sensitivity and specificity of evaluation of dry eye symptoms. Topographic modeling system-tear breakup time (TMS-BUT) had a positive correlation with SLE-BUT (R = 0.7219, P TMS-BUA showed a negative correlation (R = 0.6317, P TMS-BUT, 9 (81.82%) of which were associated with dry eye symptoms. The sensitivities of TMS-BUT and TMS-BUA were 97.5% and 95%, respectively, significantly higher than that of SLE-BUT (75%), with P =.008 and 0.01, respectively. Topographic modeling system-BUT and TMS-BUA displayed a similar rate of specificity in comparison with SLE-BUT. This new videokeratography system is a noninvasive and objective method with increased sensitivity for tear film stability analysis.
GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anders, C.; Olsten, J.
1991-01-01
The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems
[Analysis of the stability and adaptability of near infrared spectra qualitative analysis model].
Cao, Wu; Li, Wei-jun; Wang, Ping; Zhang, Li-ping
2014-06-01
The stability and adaptability of model of near infrared spectra qualitative analysis were studied. Method of separate modeling can significantly improve the stability and adaptability of model; but its ability of improving adaptability of model is limited. Method of joint modeling can not only improve the adaptability of the model, but also the stability of model, at the same time, compared to separate modeling, the method can shorten the modeling time, reduce the modeling workload; extend the term of validity of model, and improve the modeling efficiency. The experiment of model adaptability shows that, the correct recognition rate of separate modeling method is relatively low, which can not meet the requirements of application, and joint modeling method can reach the correct recognition rate of 90%, and significantly enhances the recognition effect. The experiment of model stability shows that, the identification results of model by joint modeling are better than the model by separate modeling, and has good application value.
Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theofanous, T.G.
1994-01-01
The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed
Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J
2011-01-01
.... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...
Risk analysis for nuclear power plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koelzer, W.
1983-01-01
The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt
Guo, Fangjian; Garvey, W Timothy
2016-02-01
To assess the stability of metabolic status and body mass index (BMI) status and their relative contribution to risk of diabetes, cardiovascular events, and mortality. A total of 14,685 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and 4,990 from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study were included. People with healthy obesity (HO) are defined as those meeting all three indices of blood pressure, blood glucose, and blood lipids. People with unhealthy obesity crossed the risk threshold for all three criteria. In both healthy and unhealthy subgroups, risks for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and mortality were comparable among BMI status during a mean 18.7-year follow-up. When compared with HO, hazard ratios were increased for diabetes (5.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.12-7.48), CHD (5.60, 95% CI 3.14-9.98), stroke (4.84, 95% CI 2.13-10.97), and mortality (2.6, 95% CI 1.88-3.61) in people with unhealthy obesity. BMI only moderately increased the risks for diabetes among healthy subjects. In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study over 20 years, 17.5% of lean subjects and 67.3% of overweight subjects at baseline developed obesity during follow-up. Despite rising BMI, metabolic status remained relatively stable. Metabolic status is relatively stable despite rising BMI. HO had lower risks for diabetes, CHD, stroke, and mortality than unhealthy subjects but increased diabetes risks than healthy lean people. Cardiometabolic risk factors confer much higher risk than obesity per se. © 2015 The Obesity Society.
Rusconi, C. C.; Pöchhacker, V.; Cirac, J. I.; Romero-Isart, O.
2017-10-01
We theoretically study the levitation of a single magnetic domain nanosphere in an external static magnetic field. We show that, apart from the stability provided by the mechanical rotation of the nanomagnet (as in the classical Levitron), the quantum spin origin of its magnetization provides two additional mechanisms to stably levitate the system. Despite the Earnshaw theorem, such stable phases are present even in the absence of mechanical rotation. For large magnetic fields, the Larmor precession of the quantum magnetic moment stabilizes the system in full analogy with magnetic trapping of a neutral atom. For low magnetic fields, the magnetic anisotropy stabilizes the system via the Einstein-de Haas effect. These results are obtained with a linear stability analysis of a single magnetic domain rigid nanosphere with uniaxial anisotropy in a Ioffe-Pritchard magnetic field.
Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmalz, F.
1991-01-01
In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs
Stability and failure analysis of steering tie-rod
Jiang, GongFeng; Zhang, YiLiang; Xu, XueDong; Ding, DaWei
2008-11-01
A new car in operation of only 8,000 km, because of malfunction, resulting in lost control and rammed into the edge of the road, and then the basic vehicle scrapped. According to the investigation of the site, it was found that the tie-rod of the car had been broken. For the subjective analysis of the accident and identifying the true causes of rupture of the tierod, a series of studies, from the angle of theory to experiment on the bended broken tie-rod, were conducted. The mechanical model was established; the stability of the defective tie-rod was simulated based on ANSYS software. Meanwhile, the process of the accident was simulated considering the effect of destabilization of different vehicle speed and direction of the impact. Simultaneously, macro graphic test, chemical composition analysis, microstructure analysis and SEM analysis of the fracture were implemented. The results showed that: 1) the toughness of the tie-rod is at a normal level, but there is some previous flaws. One quarter of the fracture surface has been cracked before the accident. However, there is no relationship between the flaw and this incident. The direct cause is the dynamic instability leading to the large deformation of impact loading. 2) The declining safety factor of the tie-rod greatly due to the previous flaws; the result of numerical simulation shows that previous flaw is the vital factor of structure instability, on the basis of the comparison of critical loads of the accident tie-rod and normal. The critical load can decrease by 51.3% when the initial defect increases 19.54% on the cross-sectional area, which meets the Theory of Koiter.
Frequency prediction by linear stability analysis around mean flow
Bengana, Yacine; Tuckerman, Laurette
2017-11-01
The frequency of certain limit cycles resulting from a Hopf bifurcation, such as the von Karman vortex street, can be predicted by linear stability analysis around their mean flows. Barkley (2006) has shown this to yield an eigenvalue whose real part is zero and whose imaginary part matches the nonlinear frequency. This property was named RZIF by Turton et al. (2015); moreover they found that the traveling waves (TW) of thermosolutal convection have the RZIF property. They explained this as a consequence of the fact that the temporal Fourier spectrum is dominated by the mean flow and first harmonic. We could therefore consider that only the first mode is important in the saturation of the mean flow as presented in the Self-Consistent Model (SCM) of Mantic-Lugo et al. (2014). We have implemented a full Newton's method to solve the SCM for thermosolutal convection. We show that while the RZIF property is satisfied far from the threshold, the SCM model reproduces the exact frequency only very close to the threshold. Thus, the nonlinear interaction of only the first mode with itself is insufficiently accurate to estimate the mean flow. Our next step will be to take into account higher harmonics and to apply this analysis to the standing waves, for which RZIF does not hold.
Linear Stability Analysis of an Acoustically Vaporized Droplet
Siddiqui, Junaid; Qamar, Adnan; Samtaney, Ravi
2015-11-01
Acoustic droplet vaporization (ADV) is a phase transition phenomena of a superheat liquid (Dodecafluoropentane, C5F12) droplet to a gaseous bubble, instigated by a high-intensity acoustic pulse. This approach was first studied in imaging applications, and applicable in several therapeutic areas such as gas embolotherapy, thrombus dissolution, and drug delivery. High-speed imaging and theoretical modeling of ADV has elucidated several physical aspects, ranging from bubble nucleation to its subsequent growth. Surface instabilities are known to exist and considered responsible for evolving bubble shapes (non-spherical growth, bubble splitting and bubble droplet encapsulation). We present a linear stability analysis of the dynamically evolving interfaces of an acoustically vaporized micro-droplet (liquid A) in an infinite pool of a second liquid (liquid B). We propose a thermal ADV model for the base state. The linear analysis utilizes spherical harmonics (Ynm, of degree m and order n) and under various physical assumptions results in a time-dependent ODE of the perturbed interface amplitudes (one at the vapor/liquid A interface and the other at the liquid A/liquid B interface). The perturbation amplitudes are found to grow exponentially and do not depend on m. Supported by KAUST Baseline Research Funds.
Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1984-10-01
This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program
Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.
2011-01-01
the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...
Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis
Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel
2015-01-01
This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution, the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...
Order-2 Stability Analysis of Particle Swarm Optimization.
Liu, Qunfeng
2015-01-01
Several stability analyses and stable regions of particle swarm optimization (PSO) have been proposed before. The assumption of stagnation and different definitions of stability are adopted in these analyses. In this paper, the order-2 stability of PSO is analyzed based on a weak stagnation assumption. A new definition of stability is proposed and an order-2 stable region is obtained. Several existing stable analyses for canonical PSO are compared, especially their definitions of stability and the corresponding stable regions. It is shown that the classical stagnation assumption is too strict and not necessary. Moreover, among all these definitions of stability, it is shown that our definition requires the weakest conditions, and additional conditions bring no benefit. Finally, numerical experiments are reported to show that the obtained stable region is meaningful. A new parameter combination of PSO is also shown to be good, even better than some known best parameter combinations.
Analysis on soil compressibility changes of samples stabilized with lime
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena-Andreea CALARASU
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In order to manage and control the stability of buildings located on difficult foundation soils, several techniques of soil stabilization were developed and applied worldwide. Taking into account the major significance of soil compressibility on construction durability and safety, the soil stabilization with a binder like lime is considered one of the most used and traditional methods. The present paper aims to assess the effect of lime content on soil geotechnical parameters, especially on compressibility ones, based on laboratory experimental tests, for several soil categories in admixture with different lime dosages. The results of this study indicate a significant improvement of stabilized soil parameters, such as compressibility and plasticity, in comparison with natural samples. The effect of lime stabilization is related to an increase of soil structure stability by increasing the bearing capacity.
Fixed-Time Stability Analysis of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors with Novel Adaptive Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maoxing Liu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We firstly investigate the fixed-time stability analysis of uncertain permanent magnet synchronous motors with novel control. Compared with finite-time stability where the convergence rate relies on the initial permanent magnet synchronous motors state, the settling time of fixed-time stability can be adjusted to desired values regardless of initial conditions. Novel adaptive stability control strategy for the permanent magnet synchronous motors is proposed, with which we can stabilize permanent magnet synchronous motors within fixed time based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, some simulation and comparison results are given to illustrate the validity of the theoretical results.
Stability analysis of distributed order fractional chen system.
Aminikhah, H; Refahi Sheikhani, A; Rezazadeh, H
2013-01-01
We first investigate sufficient and necessary conditions of stability of nonlinear distributed order fractional system and then we generalize the integer-order Chen system into the distributed order fractional domain. Based on the asymptotic stability theory of nonlinear distributed order fractional systems, the stability of distributed order fractional Chen system is discussed. In addition, we have found that chaos exists in the double fractional order Chen system. Numerical solutions are used to verify the analytical results.
Stability Analysis of Distributed Order Fractional Chen System
Aminikhah, H.; Refahi Sheikhani, A.; Rezazadeh, H.
2013-01-01
We first investigate sufficient and necessary conditions of stability of nonlinear distributed order fractional system and then we generalize the integer-order Chen system into the distributed order fractional domain. Based on the asymptotic stability theory of nonlinear distributed order fractional systems, the stability of distributed order fractional Chen system is discussed. In addition, we have found that chaos exists in the double fractional order Chen system. Numerical solutions are used to verify the analytical results. PMID:24489508
Large-signal stability analysis of PWM converters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huynh, P.T. [Philips Labs., Briarcliff Manor, NY (United States); Cho, B.H. [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
1995-12-31
Investigation of the effects of existing nonlinearities on the stability of PWM converters is performed. The bilinear structure, the duty cycle saturation, and the opamp saturation are the principal nonlinearities in PWM converters. These nonlinearities are incorporated in the large-signal analytical models of PWM converters, and the basic input-output stability theory is applied to analyze their stability. Design and optimization of the small-signal loop gains to counteract the undesirable nonlinear effects are also discussed.
Analysis of stability for stochastic delay integro-differential equations.
Zhang, Yu; Li, Longsuo
2018-01-01
In this paper, we concern stability of numerical methods applied to stochastic delay integro-differential equations. For linear stochastic delay integro-differential equations, it is shown that the mean-square stability is derived by the split-step backward Euler method without any restriction on step-size, while the Euler-Maruyama method could reproduce the mean-square stability under a step-size constraint. We also confirm the mean-square stability of the split-step backward Euler method for nonlinear stochastic delay integro-differential equations. The numerical experiments further verify the theoretical results.
Analysis of Physical Education Students’ Emotional Stability and Reactibility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radka Peřinová
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Analysis of Physical Education Students’ Emotional Stability and Reactibility This paper will aim to show the possible association between emotional stability and reaction time variability of Physical Education students. It can be stated that our study confirmed our suppositions which were based on works that have focused on similar topics. Our research sample showed the expected characteristics: primarily lower neuroticism values and higher extraversion when compared to the non-sporting population. Emotional stability which was reflected in the neuroticism dimension in EPQ-R (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire was shown to be connected with variability of the reaction time in the test of reactability to selected visual stimulus, disregarding the reaction rate. The effect of extraversion is partly reflected by the tendency of the sanguine temperament type to react in a balanced manner (i.e. with low reaction time variability during the reactability test. Due to the relatively low number of other temperament types in our sample, it is not possible to draw any conclusions in this regard. Analýza emocionální stability a reaktibility studentů tělesné výchovy Tento příspěvek poukazuje na možnou asociaci mezi emocionální stabilitou a časovou variabilitou dob reakcí u studentů tělesné výchovy. Lze konstatovat, že studie potvrdila naše předpoklady vycházející z odborných prací na obdobná témata. Výzkumný soubor vykazoval předpokládané charakteristiky, především nižších hodnot neuroticismu a vyšší extroverze oproti nesportující populaci. Emocionální stabilita vyjádřená pomocí dimenze neuroticismu (v EPQ-R se ukázala v asociaci s časovou variabilitou dob reakcí v testu reaktibility na výběrový zrakový podnět bez ohledu na rychlost reakce. Vliv extroverze do jisté míry odráží naznačená tendence sangvinického typu temperamentu reagovat vyrovnaně (tedy s nízkou časovou variabilitou dob
Precessing rotating flows with additional shear: stability analysis.
Salhi, A; Cambon, C
2009-03-01
We consider unbounded precessing rotating flows in which vertical or horizontal shear is induced by the interaction between the solid-body rotation (with angular velocity Omega(0)) and the additional "precessing" Coriolis force (with angular velocity -epsilonOmega(0)), normal to it. A "weak" shear flow, with rate 2epsilon of the same order of the Poincaré "small" ratio epsilon , is needed for balancing the gyroscopic torque, so that the whole flow satisfies Euler's equations in the precessing frame (the so-called admissibility conditions). The base flow case with vertical shear (its cross-gradient direction is aligned with the main angular velocity) corresponds to Mahalov's [Phys. Fluids A 5, 891 (1993)] precessing infinite cylinder base flow (ignoring boundary conditions), while the base flow case with horizontal shear (its cross-gradient direction is normal to both main and precessing angular velocities) corresponds to the unbounded precessing rotating shear flow considered by Kerswell [Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 72, 107 (1993)]. We show that both these base flows satisfy the admissibility conditions and can support disturbances in terms of advected Fourier modes. Because the admissibility conditions cannot select one case with respect to the other, a more physical derivation is sought: Both flows are deduced from Poincaré's [Bull. Astron. 27, 321 (1910)] basic state of a precessing spheroidal container, in the limit of small epsilon . A Rapid distortion theory (RDT) type of stability analysis is then performed for the previously mentioned disturbances, for both base flows. The stability analysis of the Kerswell base flow, using Floquet's theory, is recovered, and its counterpart for the Mahalov base flow is presented. Typical growth rates are found to be the same for both flows at very small epsilon , but significant differences are obtained regarding growth rates and widths of instability bands, if larger epsilon values, up to 0.2, are considered. Finally
WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-05-01
The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs
In situ vitrification: application analysis for stabilization of transuranic waste
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oma, K.H.; Farnsworth, R.K.; Rusin, J.M.
1982-09-01
The in situ vitrification process builds upon the electric melter technology previously developed for high-level waste immobilization. In situ vitrification converts buried wastes and contaminated soil to an extremely durable glass and crystalline waste form by melting the materials, in place, using joule heating. Once the waste materials have been solidified, the high integrity waste form should not cause future ground subsidence. Environmental transport of the waste due to water or wind erosion, and plant or animal intrusion, is minimized. Environmental studies are currently being conducted to determine whether additional stabilization is required for certain in-ground transuranic waste sites. An applications analysis has been performed to identify several in situ vitrification process limitations which may exist at transuranic waste sites. Based on the process limit analysis, in situ vitrification is well suited for solidification of most in-ground transuranic wastes. The process is best suited for liquid disposal sites. A site-specific performance analysis, based on safety, health, environmental, and economic assessments, will be required to determine for which sites in situ vitrification is an acceptable disposal technique. Process economics of in situ vitrification compare favorably with other in-situ solidification processes and are an order of magnitude less than the costs for exhumation and disposal in a repository. Leachability of the vitrified product compares closely with that of Pyrex glass and is significantly better than granite, marble, or bottle glass. Total release to the environment from a vitrified waste site is estimated to be less than 10 -5 parts per year. 32 figures, 30 tables
Stability analysis of a boundary layer over a hump using parabolized stability equations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gao, B; Park, D H; Park, S O, E-mail: sopark@kaist.ac.kr [Division of Aerospace Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Gusong-dong, Yusong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)
2011-10-15
Parabolized stability equations (PSEs) were used to investigate the stability of boundary layer flows over a small hump. The applicability of PSEs to flows with a small separation bubble was examined by comparing the result with DNS data. It was found that PSEs can efficiently track the disturbance waves with an acceptable accuracy in spite of a small separation bubble. A typical evolution scenario of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) wave is presented. The adverse pressure gradient and the flow separation due to the hump have a strong effect on the amplification of the disturbances. The effect of hump width and height is also examined. When the width of the hump is reduced, the amplification factor is increased. The height of the hump is found to obviously influence the stability only when it is greater than the critical layer thickness.
Stability analysis of a boundary layer over a hump using parabolized stability equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, B; Park, D H; Park, S O
2011-01-01
Parabolized stability equations (PSEs) were used to investigate the stability of boundary layer flows over a small hump. The applicability of PSEs to flows with a small separation bubble was examined by comparing the result with DNS data. It was found that PSEs can efficiently track the disturbance waves with an acceptable accuracy in spite of a small separation bubble. A typical evolution scenario of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) wave is presented. The adverse pressure gradient and the flow separation due to the hump have a strong effect on the amplification of the disturbances. The effect of hump width and height is also examined. When the width of the hump is reduced, the amplification factor is increased. The height of the hump is found to obviously influence the stability only when it is greater than the critical layer thickness.
Uncertainty Instability Risk Analysis of High Concrete Arch Dam Abutments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xin Cao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The uncertainties associated with concrete arch dams rise with the increased height of dams. Given the uncertainties associated with influencing factors, the stability of high arch dam abutments as a fuzzy random event was studied. In addition, given the randomness and fuzziness of calculation parameters as well as the failure criterion, hazard point and hazard surface uncertainty instability risk ratio models were proposed for high arch dam abutments on the basis of credibility theory. The uncertainty instability failure criterion was derived through the analysis of the progressive instability failure process on the basis of Shannon’s entropy theory. The uncertainties associated with influencing factors were quantized by probability or possibility distribution assignments. Gaussian random theory was used to generate random realizations for influence factors with spatial variability. The uncertainty stability analysis method was proposed by combining the finite element analysis and the limit equilibrium method. The instability risk ratio was calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy random postprocessing. Results corroborate that the modeling approach is sound and that the calculation method is feasible.
Analysis of the gyroscopic stabilization of a system of rigid bodies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kliem, Wolfhard; Seyranian, Alexander P.
1997-01-01
We study the gyroscopic stability of a three-body system. A new method of finding stability regions, based on mechanism and criteria for gyroscopic stabilization, is presented. Of particular interest in this connection is the theory of interaction of eigenvalues. This leads to a complete 3......-dimensional analysis, which shows the regions of stability, divergence, and flutter of a simple model of a rotating spaceship....
Independent influence of gait speed and step length on stability and fall risk.
Espy, D D; Yang, F; Bhatt, T; Pai, Y-C
2010-07-01
With aging, individuals' gaits become slower and their steps shorter; both are thought to improve stability against balance threats. Recent studies have shown that shorter step lengths, which bring the center of mass (COM) closer to the leading foot, improve stability against slip-related falls. However, a slower gait, hence lower COM velocity, does the opposite. Due to the inherent coupling of step length and speed in spontaneous gait, the extent to which the benefit of shorter steps can offset the slower speed is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate, through decoupling, the independent effects of gait speed and step length on gait stability and the likelihood of slip-induced falls. Fifty-seven young adults walked at one of three target gait patterns, two of equal speed and two of equal step length; at a later trial, they encountered an unannounced slip. The results supported our hypotheses that faster gait as well as shorter steps each ameliorates fall risk when a slip is encountered. This appeared to be attributable to the maintenance of stability from slip initiation to liftoff of the recovery foot during the slip. Successful decoupling of gait speed from step length reveals for the first time that, although slow gait in itself leads to instability and falls (a one-standard-deviation decrease in gait speed increases the odds of fall by 4-fold), this effect is offset by the related decrease in step length (the same one-standard-deviation decrease in step length lowers fall risk by 6 times). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.
1998-01-01
Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)
Analysis of the CAREM reactor's primary loop stability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazzi, R.
1990-01-01
The results obtained to determine the stability conditions of the CAREM reactor's primary loop, using techniques based on the frequential response to the system, are presented. The stability margins were evaluated employing different alternatives; all of them predict a behaviour acceptable to the nominal working conditions. (Author) [es
Harmonics and voltage stability analysis in power systems including ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
two parameters affecting power quality – harmonics and voltage stability. ... is necessary to pay attention to energy system stability in the planning, management, and ... where k ∈ {m, m + 1,... ,n} and n is total number of the buses in the system.
Application of Lyapunov's Second Method in the Stability Analysis of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, Lyapunov's method for determining the stability of non-linear systems under dynamic states is presented. The paper highlights a practical application of the method to investigate the stability of crude oil/natural gas separation process. Mathematical state models for the separation process, used in the ...
Stability analysis of a class of fractional delay differential equations
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Abstract. In this paper we analyse stability of nonlinear fractional order delay differential equa- tions of the form Dα y(t) = af (y(t − τ )) − by(t), where Dα is a Caputo fractional derivative of order 0 < α ≤ 1. We describe stability regions using critical curves. To explain the proposed theory, we discuss fractional order logistic ...
Stability analysis of a class of fractional delay differential equations
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In this paper we analyse stability of nonlinear fractional order delay differential equations of the form D y ( t ) = a f ( y ( t − ) ) − by ( t ) , where D is a Caputo fractional derivative of order 0 < ≤ 1. We describe stability regions using critical curves. To explain the proposed theory, we discuss fractional order logistic ...
Systematic analysis of stability patterns in plant primary metabolism.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dorothee Girbig
Full Text Available Metabolic networks are characterized by complex interactions and regulatory mechanisms between many individual components. These interactions determine whether a steady state is stable to perturbations. Structural kinetic modeling (SKM is a framework to analyze the stability of metabolic steady states that allows the study of the system Jacobian without requiring detailed knowledge about individual rate equations. Stability criteria can be derived by generating a large number of structural kinetic models (SK-models with randomly sampled parameter sets and evaluating the resulting Jacobian matrices. Until now, SKM experiments applied univariate tests to detect the network components with the largest influence on stability. In this work, we present an extended SKM approach relying on supervised machine learning to detect patterns of enzyme-metabolite interactions that act together in an orchestrated manner to ensure stability. We demonstrate its application on a detailed SK-model of the Calvin-Benson cycle and connected pathways. The identified stability patterns are highly complex reflecting that changes in dynamic properties depend on concerted interactions between several network components. In total, we find more patterns that reliably ensure stability than patterns ensuring instability. This shows that the design of this system is strongly targeted towards maintaining stability. We also investigate the effect of allosteric regulators revealing that the tendency to stability is significantly increased by including experimentally determined regulatory mechanisms that have not yet been integrated into existing kinetic models.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vittal, V.
2000-01-01
The electric utility industry is undergoing unprecedented changes in its structure worldwide. With the advent of an open market environment and competition in the industry, and restructuring of the industry into separate generation, transmission, and distribution entities, new issues in power system operation and planning are inevitable. One of the major consequences of this new electric utility environment is the greater emphasis on reliability and secure operation of the power system. This paper examines the impact of restructuring on power system dynamic analysis. It specifically addresses issues related to transient stability analysis and small-signal stability analysis. Four major topics to examine the effect on the nature of studies conducted are considered. These topics are (1) system adequacy and security, (2) system modeling data requirements, (3) system protection and control, and (4) system restoration. The consequences and impact of each of these topics on the nature of the studies conducted are examined and discussed. The emphasis on greater reliability has led to a clearer enunciation of standards, measurements, and guides in some countries. These requirements will result in: (1) more measurements on existing systems, (2) rigorous analysis of transient stability and small-signal stability to determine operating limits and plan systems, (3) greater emphasis on studies to verify coordination and proper performance of protection and controls, and (4) development of a detailed plan for system restoration in the case of wide-spread outages
Improving Power System Stability Using Transfer Function: A Comparative Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Shahgholian
2017-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a small-signal dynamic model of a single-machine infinite-bus (SMIB power system that includes IEEE type-ST1 excitation system and PSS based on transfer fu¬n¬c¬¬tion structure is presented. The changes in the operating co¬n¬dition of a power system on dynamic performance have been exa¬m¬ined. The dynamic performance of the closed-loop system is ana¬lyzed base on its eigenvalues. The effectiveness of the par¬a¬m¬e¬t¬ers changes on dynamic stability is verified by simulation res¬u¬l¬ts. Three types of PSS have been considered for analysis: (a the derivative PSS, (b the lead-lag PSS or conventional PSS, and (c the proportional-integral-derivative PSS. The objective fu¬nc¬t¬i¬o¬n is formulated to increase the dam¬¬ping ratio of the electromechanical mode eigenvalues. Simu¬la¬tion results show that the PID-PSS performs better for less ov¬e¬r¬shoot and less settling time comp¬ared with the CPSS and DPSS un¬der different load ope¬ration and the significant system pa¬r¬am¬eter variation conditions.
Stability analysis of an implicitly defined labor market model
Mendes, Diana A.; Mendes, Vivaldo M.
2008-06-01
Until very recently, the pervasive existence of models exhibiting well-defined backward dynamics but ill-defined forward dynamics in economics and finance has apparently posed no serious obstacles to the analysis of their dynamics and stability, despite the problems that may arise from possible erroneous conclusions regarding theoretical considerations and policy prescriptions from such models. A large number of papers have dealt with this problem in the past by assuming the existence of symmetry between forward and backward dynamics, even in the case when the map cannot be invertible either forward or backwards. However, this procedure has been seriously questioned over the last few years in a series of papers dealing with implicit difference equations and inverse limit spaces. This paper explores the search and matching labor market model developed by Bhattacharya and Bunzel [J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Chaotic Planning Solution in the Textbook Model of Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Matching, Mimeo, Iowa State University, 2002; J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Economics Bulletin 5 (19) (2003) 1-10], with the following objectives in mind: (i) to show that chaotic dynamics may still be present in the model for acceptable parameter values, (ii) to clarify some open questions related with the admissible dynamics in the forward looking setting, by providing a rigorous proof of the existence of cyclic and chaotic dynamics through the application of tools from symbolic dynamics and inverse limit theory.
Slope stability analysis using limit equilibrium method in nonlinear criterion.
Lin, Hang; Zhong, Wenwen; Xiong, Wei; Tang, Wenyu
2014-01-01
In slope stability analysis, the limit equilibrium method is usually used to calculate the safety factor of slope based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion. However, Mohr-Coulomb criterion is restricted to the description of rock mass. To overcome its shortcomings, this paper combined Hoek-Brown criterion and limit equilibrium method and proposed an equation for calculating the safety factor of slope with limit equilibrium method in Hoek-Brown criterion through equivalent cohesive strength and the friction angle. Moreover, this paper investigates the impact of Hoek-Brown parameters on the safety factor of slope, which reveals that there is linear relation between equivalent cohesive strength and weakening factor D. However, there are nonlinear relations between equivalent cohesive strength and Geological Strength Index (GSI), the uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock σ ci , and the parameter of intact rock m i . There is nonlinear relation between the friction angle and all Hoek-Brown parameters. With the increase of D, the safety factor of slope F decreases linearly; with the increase of GSI, F increases nonlinearly; when σ ci is relatively small, the relation between F and σ ci is nonlinear, but when σ ci is relatively large, the relation is linear; with the increase of m i , F decreases first and then increases.
Stability Analysis of Reactive Multiphase Slug Flows in Microchannels
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alejandro A. Munera Parra
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Conducting multiphase reactions in micro-reactors is a promising strategy for intensifying chemical and biochemical processes. A major unresolved challenge is to exploit the considerable benefits offered by micro-scale operation for industrial scale throughputs by numbering-up whilst retaining the underlying advantageous flow characteristics of the single channel system in multiple parallel channels. Fabrication and installation tolerances in the individual micro-channels result in different pressure losses and, thus, a fluid maldistribution. In this work, an additional source of maldistribution, namely the flow multiplicities, which can arise in a multiphase reactive or extractive flow in otherwise identical micro-channels, was investigated. A detailed experimental and theoretical analysis of the flow stability with and without reaction for both gas-liquid and liquid-liquid slug flow has been developed. The model has been validated using the extraction of acetic acid from n-heptane with the ionic liquid 1-Ethyl-3-methylimidazolium ethyl sulfate. The results clearly demonstrate that the coupling between flow structure, the extent of reaction/extraction and pressure drop can result in multiple operating states, thus, necessitating an active measurement and control concept to ensure uniform behavior and optimal performance.
Stability analysis of lower dimensional gravastars in noncommutative geometry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Banerjee, Ayan [Jadavpur University, Department of Mathematics, Kolkata (India); Hansraj, Sudan [University of KwaZulu-Natal, Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Durban (South Africa)
2016-11-15
The Banados et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett 69:1849, 1992), black hole solution is revamped from the Einstein field equations in (2 + 1)-dimensional anti-de Sitter spacetime, in a context of noncommutative geometry (Phys. Rev. D 87:084014, 2013). In this article, we explore the exact gravastar solutions in three-dimensional anti-de Sitter space given in the same geometry. As a first step we derive BTZ solution assuming the source of energy density as point-like structures in favor of smeared objects, where the particle mass M, is diffused throughout a region of linear size √(α) and is described by a Gaussian function of finite width rather than a Dirac delta function. We matched our interior solution to an exterior BTZ spacetime at a junction interface situated outside the event horizon. Furthermore, a stability analysis is carried out for the specific case when χ < 0.214 under radial perturbations about the static equilibrium solutions. To give theoretical support we are also trying to explore their physical properties and characteristics. (orig.)
Crack stability analysis of low alloy steel primary coolant pipe
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tanaka, T.; Kameyama, M. [Kansai Electric Power Company, Osaka (Japan); Urabe, Y. [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., Takasago (Japan)] [and others
1997-04-01
At present, cast duplex stainless steel has been used for the primary coolant piping of PWRs in Japan and joints of dissimilar material have been applied for welding to reactor vessels and steam generators. For the primary coolant piping of the next APWR plants, application of low alloy steel that results in designing main loops with the same material is being studied. It means that there is no need to weld low alloy steel with stainless steel and that makes it possible to reduce the welding length. Attenuation of Ultra Sonic Wave Intensity is lower for low alloy steel than for stainless steel and they have advantageous inspection characteristics. In addition to that, the thermal expansion rate is smaller for low alloy steel than for stainless steel. In consideration of the above features of low alloy steel, the overall reliability of primary coolant piping is expected to be improved. Therefore, for the evaluation of crack stability of low alloy steel piping to be applied for primary loops, elastic-plastic future mechanics analysis was performed by means of a three-dimensioned FEM. The evaluation results for the low alloy steel pipings show that cracks will not grow into unstable fractures under maximum design load conditions, even when such a circumferential crack is assumed to be 6 times the size of the wall thickness.
Preliminary Analysis of Slope Stability in Kuok and Surrounding Areas
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dewandra Bagus Eka Putra
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The level of slope influenced by the condition of the rocks beneath the surface. On high level of slopes, amount of surface runoff and water transport energy is also enlarged. This caused by greater gravity, in line with the surface tilt from the horizontal plane. In other words, topsoil eroded more and more. When the slope becomes twice as steep, then the amount of erosion per unit area be 2.0 - 2.5 times more. Kuok and surrounding area is the road access between the West Sumatra and Riau which plays an important role economies of both provinces. The purpose of this study is to map the locations that have fairly steep slopes and potential mode of landslides. Based on SRTM data obtained, the roads in Kuok area has a minimum elevation of + 33 m and a maximum + 217.329 m. Rugged road conditions with slope ranging from 24.08 ° to 44.68 ° causing this area having frequent landslides. The result of slope stability analysis in a slope near the Water Power Plant Koto Panjang, indicated that mode of active failure is toppling failure or rock fall and the potential zone of failure is in the center part of the slope.
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis: Technical progress report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hughes, M.H.; Phillips, M.W.
1995-03-01
This report summarizes MHD equilibrium and stability studies carried out at Northrop Grumman's Advanced Technology and Development Center during the 12 month period starting March 1, 1994. Progress is reported in both ideal and resistive MHD modeling of TFTR plasmas. The development of codes to calculate the significant effects of highly anisotropic pressure distributions is discussed along with results from this model
High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis. Technical progress report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hughes, M.H.; Phillips, M.W.
1994-09-01
This report summarizes MHD equilibrium and stability studies carried out at Grumman's Corporate Research Center during the 6 month period starting March 1, 1994. Progress is reported in both ideal and resistive MHD modeling of TFTR plasmas. The development of codes to calculate the significant effects of highly anisotropic pressure distributions is discussed along with initial results from this model
Dadashzadeh, N.; Duzgun, H. S. B.; Yesiloglu-Gultekin, N.
2017-08-01
While advanced numerical techniques in slope stability analysis are successfully used in deterministic studies, they have so far found limited use in probabilistic analyses due to their high computation cost. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is one of the most efficient probabilistic techniques to perform probabilistic stability analysis by considering the associated uncertainties in the analysis parameters. However, it is not possible to directly use FORM in numerical slope stability evaluations as it requires definition of a limit state performance function. In this study, an integrated methodology for probabilistic numerical modeling of rock slope stability is proposed. The methodology is based on response surface method, where FORM is used to develop an explicit performance function from the results of numerical simulations. The implementation of the proposed methodology is performed by considering a large potential rock wedge in Sumela Monastery, Turkey. The accuracy of the developed performance function to truly represent the limit state surface is evaluated by monitoring the slope behavior. The calculated probability of failure is compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The proposed methodology is found to be 72% more efficient than MCS, while the accuracy is decreased with an error of 24%.
Riva, F; Bisi, M C; Stagni, R
2013-01-01
Falls represent a heavy economic and clinical burden on society. The identification of individual chronic characteristics associated with falling is of fundamental importance for the clinicians; in particular, the stability of daily motor tasks is one of the main factors that the clinicians look for during assessment procedures. Various methods for the assessment of stability in human movement are present in literature, and methods coming from stability analysis of nonlinear dynamic systems applied to biomechanics recently showed promise. One of these techniques is orbital stability analysis via Floquet multipliers. This method allows to measure orbital stability of periodic nonlinear dynamic systems and it seems a promising approach for the definition of a reliable motor stability index, taking into account for the whole task cycle dynamics. Despite the premises, its use in the assessment of fall risk has been deemed controversial. The aim of this systematic review was therefore to provide a critical evaluation of the literature on the topic of applications of orbital stability analysis in biomechanics, with particular focus to methodologic aspects. Four electronic databases have been searched for articles relative to the topic; 23 articles were selected for review. Quality of the studies present in literature has been assessed with a customised quality assessment tool. Overall quality of the literature in the field was found to be high. The most critical aspect was found to be the lack of uniformity in the implementation of the analysis to biomechanical time series, particularly in the choice of state space and number of cycles to include in the analysis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Hydrodynamic Stability Analysis of Particle-Laden Solid Rocket Motors
Elliott, T. S.; Majdalani, J.
2014-11-01
Fluid-wall interactions within solid rocket motors can result in parietal vortex shedding giving rise to hydrodynamic instabilities, or unsteady waves, that translate into pressure oscillations. The oscillations can result in vibrations observed by the rocket, rocket subsystems, or payload, which can lead to changes in flight characteristics, design failure, or other undesirable effects. For many years particles have been embedded in solid rocket propellants with the understanding that their presence increases specific impulse and suppresses fluctuations in the flowfield. This study utilizes a two dimensional framework to understand and quantify the aforementioned two-phase flowfield inside a motor case with a cylindrical grain perforation. This is accomplished through the use of linearized Navier-Stokes equations with the Stokes drag equation and application of the biglobal ansatz. Obtaining the biglobal equations for analysis requires quantification of the mean flowfield within the solid rocket motor. To that end, the extended Taylor-Culick form will be utilized to represent the gaseous phase of the mean flowfield while the self-similar form will be employed for the particle phase. Advancing the mean flowfield by quantifying the particle mass concentration with a semi-analytical solution the finalized mean flowfield is combined with the biglobal equations resulting in a system of eight partial differential equations. This system is solved using an eigensolver within the framework yielding the entire spectrum of eigenvalues, frequency and growth rate components, at once. This work will detail the parametric analysis performed to demonstrate the stabilizing and destabilizing effects of particles within solid rocket combustion.
Hydrodynamic Stability Analysis of Particle-Laden Solid Rocket Motors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elliott, T S; Majdalani, J
2014-01-01
Fluid-wall interactions within solid rocket motors can result in parietal vortex shedding giving rise to hydrodynamic instabilities, or unsteady waves, that translate into pressure oscillations. The oscillations can result in vibrations observed by the rocket, rocket subsystems, or payload, which can lead to changes in flight characteristics, design failure, or other undesirable effects. For many years particles have been embedded in solid rocket propellants with the understanding that their presence increases specific impulse and suppresses fluctuations in the flowfield. This study utilizes a two dimensional framework to understand and quantify the aforementioned two-phase flowfield inside a motor case with a cylindrical grain perforation. This is accomplished through the use of linearized Navier-Stokes equations with the Stokes drag equation and application of the biglobal ansatz. Obtaining the biglobal equations for analysis requires quantification of the mean flowfield within the solid rocket motor. To that end, the extended Taylor-Culick form will be utilized to represent the gaseous phase of the mean flowfield while the self-similar form will be employed for the particle phase. Advancing the mean flowfield by quantifying the particle mass concentration with a semi-analytical solution the finalized mean flowfield is combined with the biglobal equations resulting in a system of eight partial differential equations. This system is solved using an eigensolver within the framework yielding the entire spectrum of eigenvalues, frequency and growth rate components, at once. This work will detail the parametric analysis performed to demonstrate the stabilizing and destabilizing effects of particles within solid rocket combustion
Risk analysis of industrial plants operation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hubert, Philippe
1989-12-01
This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr
Risk analysis of alternative energy sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kazmer, D.R.
1982-01-01
The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures
LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK
Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick
2012-01-01
The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...
Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems
Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra
2013-01-01
In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...
LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2002-01-01
Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs
Stability model and risk assessment for the Montescaglioso Landslide (Southern Italy)
Amanti, Marco; Chiessi, Vittorio; Guarino, Paolo Maria; Spizzichino, Daniele; Troccoli, Alessandro; Vizzini, Giorgio
2015-04-01
In this paper, we present the final results of a landslide risk assessment evaluation implemented for the recent Montescaglioso landslide emergency occurred on 3rd December 2013 when a large and rapid slope failure, triggered by prolonged and intense rainfall, affected a big portion of the SW slope of the village. The slope failure damaged a main road, private homes and commercial buildings. The Montescaglioso village (Basilicata Region, Italy) is located on the top of a conglomerate hill overlying a gentle slope constituted by Plio-Pleistocene clays. The area has been affected since ancient time by different landslide typologies and mechanism, as determined by a direct geomorphological survey and from mapping and available technical literature. Phenomena such as rock-falls and rock lateral spreading in the upper part of the hill, and rotational/translational slides and earth flows can be recognized in the area. Landslides are mainly promoted by the geological and structural setting of the area as well as by very low mechanical characteristics of sediments outcropping in the area. After the emergency phase, a detailed program of field survey and laboratory campaign has been implemented during the last year. A detailed topographical analysis has been developed by using the LIDAR survey in order to define morphometric conditions and geometry modifications of the slope affected by the landslide. Based on the studies carried out in the area, the research has been aimed to assessing the stability conditions (residual landslide risk) of the SW slope of the hill trough an extended geological, geomorphological and geotechnical campaign linked with numerical study of present instability mechanism. The geological and geotechnical model of the slope has been defined trough the analysis of the past and recent logs obtained from several boreholes and also through the results of many mechanical test performed on samples taken in the area. The numerical study has been carried out
Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.
2011-01-01
Measures that can predict risk of falling are essential for enrollment of older adults into fall prevention programs. Local and orbital stability directly quantify responses to very small perturbations and are therefore putative candidates for predicting fall risk. However, research to date is not conclusive on whether and how these measures relate to fall risk. Testing this empirically would be time consuming or may require high risk tripping experiments. Simulation studies therefore provide...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng Youqi; Wu Hongchun; Cao Liangzhi
2013-01-01
This paper describes the stability analysis for the coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) acceleration used in the wavelet expansion method. The nonlinear CMFD acceleration scheme is transformed by linearization and the Fourier ansatz is introduced into the linearized formulae. The spectral radius is defined as the stability criterion, which is the least upper bound (LUB) of the largest eigenvalue of Fourier analysis matrix. The stability analysis considers the effect of mesh size (spectral length), coarse mesh division and scattering ratio. The results show that for the wavelet expansion method, the CMFD acceleration is conditionally stable. The small size of fine mesh brings stability and fast convergent. With the increase of the mesh size, the stability becomes worse. The scattering ratio does not impact the stability obviously. It makes the CMFD acceleration highly efficient in the strong scattering case. The results of Fourier analysis are verified by the numerical tests based on a homogeneous slab problem.
Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy
Edwards, Michelle
2010-01-01
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
Khan, Saad Jawaid; Khan, Soobia Saad; Usman, Juliana; Mokhtar, Abdul Halim; Abu Osman, Noor Azuan
2018-02-01
This study aims to investigate the effects of varying toe angles at different platform settings on Overall Stability Index of postural stability and fall risk using Biodex Balance System in healthy participants and medial knee osteoarthritis patients. Biodex Balance System was employed to measure postural stability and fall risk at different foot progression angles (ranging from -20° to 40°, with 10° increments) on 20 healthy (control group) and 20 knee osteoarthritis patients (osteoarthritis group) randomly (age: 59.50 ± 7.33 years and 61.50 ± 8.63 years; body mass: 69.95 ± 9.86 kg and 70.45 ± 8.80 kg). Platform settings used were (1) static, (2) postural stability dynamic level 8 (PS8), (3) fall risk levels 12 to 8 (FR12) and (4) fall risk levels 8 to 2 (FR8). Data from the tests were analysed using three-way mixed repeated measures analysis of variance. The participant group, platform settings and toe angles all had a significant main effect on balance ( p ≤ 0.02). Platform settings had a significant interaction effect with participant group F(3, 144) = 6.97, p fall risk as compared to the healthy group. Changing platform settings has a more pronounced effect on balance in knee osteoarthritis group than in healthy participants. Changing toe angles produced similar effects in both the participant groups, with decreased stability and increased fall risk at extreme toe-in and toe-out angles.
Analysis of stability parameters in relation to precipitation associated ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
erty and crops; human and animal fatalities, and also aviation hazards. ... Keywords. Atmospheric instability; stability indices; Richardson number; vertical wind shear; energy-helicity index; ... ing the genesis and development of severe weather.
Analysis of stability parameters in relation to precipitation associated
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Atmospheric instability; stability indices; Richardson number; vertical wind ... is used to compute some important dynamic/thermodynamic parameters and are ... (i*) well indicate the occurrence of thunderstorms about 2 hours in advance.
Stability Analysis of Spacecraft Motion in the Vicinity of Asteroids
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of my proposal is to determine the stability of a spacecraft when in the vicinity of an asteroid. Orbiting an asteroid is a difficult task. The unique...
analysis and correlation of stability parameters in malting barley
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Administrator
food, feed, medicinal purposes and malt of alcoholic beverages. Stability parameters are ... and animal food, health benefits and malting and brewing in many ..... targeted for environmental conditions which are ... Market Update. Available at ...
Stability analysis of non-axisymmetric three-dimensional finite ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The present work explores the use of mass-lumping in stability ... further considers orthotropic flexible support which makes the stiffness matrix a ... symmetric rotor on rigid, isotropic and orthotropic bearing is stable in absence of a destabilizing.
Population Stabilization in India: A Sub-State level Analysis
Purohit C, Dr Brijesh
2007-01-01
The study aims at analyzing economic and policy factors impinging upon population stabilization measures at the district (sub-state level) in India. It reflects upon popularly debated notions, namely, that development is the best contraceptive or whether contraceptive is the best development. In order to reflect upon this notion, we hypothesize that the factors determining the success of population stabilization measures are likely to be different across rich and poor states. It is more likel...
Stability analysis of high temperature superconducting coil in liquid hydrogen
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakayama, T.; Yagai, T.; Tsuda, M.; Hamajima, T.
2007-01-01
Recently, it is expected that hydrogen plays an important role in energy source including electric power in near future. Liquid hydrogen has high potential for cooling down superconducting coil wound with high temperature superconductors (HTS), such as BSCCO, YBCO. In this paper, we study stabilities of the coils wound with BSCCO tapes, which are immersed in the liquid hydrogen, and compare stability results with those cooled by liquid helium. We treat a minimum propagation zone (MPZ) theory to evaluate the coil stability considering boiling heat flux of the liquid hydrogen, and specific heat, heat conduction and resistivity of HTS materials as a function of temperature. It is found that the coil cooled by the liquid hydrogen has higher stability margin than that cooled by the liquid helium. We compare the stability margins of both coils wound with Bi-2223/Ag tape and Bi-2212/Ag tape in liquid hydrogen. As a result, it is found that the stability of Bi-2212 coil is equivalent to that of Bi-2223 coil in low and high magnetic field, while the maximum current of Bi-2212 coil exceeds a little bit that of Bi-2223 coil in both magnetic fields
Kinematic Analysis of a Posterior-stabilized Knee Prosthesis
Zhao, Zhi-Xin; Wen, Liang; Qu, Tie-Bing; Hou, Li-Li; Xiang, Dong; Bin, Jia
2015-01-01
Background: The goal of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is to restore knee kinematics. Knee prosthesis design plays a very important role in successful restoration. Here, kinematics models of normal and prosthetic knees were created and validated using previously published data. Methods: Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans of a healthy, anticorrosive female cadaver were used to establish a model of the entire lower limbs, including the femur, tibia, patella, fibula, distal femur cartilage, and medial and lateral menisci, as well as the anterior cruciate, posterior cruciate, medial collateral, and lateral collateral ligaments. The data from the three-dimensional models of the normal knee joint and a posterior-stabilized (PS) knee prosthesis were imported into finite element analysis software to create the final kinematic model of the TKA prosthesis, which was then validated by comparison with a previous study. The displacement of the medial/lateral femur and the internal rotation angle of the tibia were analyzed during 0–135° flexion. Results: Both the output data trends and the measured values derived from the normal knee's kinematics model were very close to the results reported in a previous in vivo study, suggesting that this model can be used for further analyses. The PS knee prosthesis underwent an abnormal forward displacement compared with the normal knee and has insufficient, or insufficiently aggressive, “rollback” compared with the lateral femur of the normal knee. In addition, a certain degree of reverse rotation occurs during flexion of the PS knee prosthesis. Conclusions: There were still several differences between the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis and a normal knee, suggesting room for improving the design of the PS knee prosthesis. The abnormal kinematics during early flexion shows that the design of the articular surface played a vital role in improving the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis. PMID:25591565
Kinematic analysis of a posterior-stabilized knee prosthesis.
Zhao, Zhi-Xin; Wen, Liang; Qu, Tie-Bing; Hou, Li-Li; Xiang, Dong; Bin, Jia
2015-01-20
The goal of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is to restore knee kinematics. Knee prosthesis design plays a very important role in successful restoration. Here, kinematics models of normal and prosthetic knees were created and validated using previously published data. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans of a healthy, anticorrosive female cadaver were used to establish a model of the entire lower limbs, including the femur, tibia, patella, fibula, distal femur cartilage, and medial and lateral menisci, as well as the anterior cruciate, posterior cruciate, medial collateral, and lateral collateral ligaments. The data from the three-dimensional models of the normal knee joint and a posterior-stabilized (PS) knee prosthesis were imported into finite element analysis software to create the final kinematic model of the TKA prosthesis, which was then validated by comparison with a previous study. The displacement of the medial/lateral femur and the internal rotation angle of the tibia were analyzed during 0-135° flexion. Both the output data trends and the measured values derived from the normal knee's kinematics model were very close to the results reported in a previous in vivo study, suggesting that this model can be used for further analyses. The PS knee prosthesis underwent an abnormal forward displacement compared with the normal knee and has insufficient, or insufficiently aggressive, "rollback" compared with the lateral femur of the normal knee. In addition, a certain degree of reverse rotation occurs during flexion of the PS knee prosthesis. There were still several differences between the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis and a normal knee, suggesting room for improving the design of the PS knee prosthesis. The abnormal kinematics during early flexion shows that the design of the articular surface played a vital role in improving the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis.
Kinematic Analysis of a Posterior-stabilized Knee Prosthesis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhi-Xin Zhao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Background: The goal of total knee arthroplasty (TKA is to restore knee kinematics. Knee prosthesis design plays a very important role in successful restoration. Here, kinematics models of normal and prosthetic knees were created and validated using previously published data. Methods: Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans of a healthy, anticorrosive female cadaver were used to establish a model of the entire lower limbs, including the femur, tibia, patella, fibula, distal femur cartilage, and medial and lateral menisci, as well as the anterior cruciate, posterior cruciate, medial collateral, and lateral collateral ligaments. The data from the three-dimensional models of the normal knee joint and a posterior-stabilized (PS knee prosthesis were imported into finite element analysis software to create the final kinematic model of the TKA prosthesis, which was then validated by comparison with a previous study. The displacement of the medial/lateral femur and the internal rotation angle of the tibia were analyzed during 0-135° flexion. Results: Both the output data trends and the measured values derived from the normal knee′s kinematics model were very close to the results reported in a previous in vivo study, suggesting that this model can be used for further analyses. The PS knee prosthesis underwent an abnormal forward displacement compared with the normal knee and has insufficient, or insufficiently aggressive, "rollback" compared with the lateral femur of the normal knee. In addition, a certain degree of reverse rotation occurs during flexion of the PS knee prosthesis. Conclusions: There were still several differences between the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis and a normal knee, suggesting room for improving the design of the PS knee prosthesis. The abnormal kinematics during early flexion shows that the design of the articular surface played a vital role in improving the kinematics of the PS knee prosthesis.
Lian, Fei; Xing, Baoshan
2017-12-05
Black carbon (BC) is ubiquitous in the environments and participates in various biogeochemical processes. Both positive and negative effects of BC (especially biochar) on the ecosystem have been identified, which are mainly derived from its diverse physicochemical properties. Nevertheless, few studies systematically examined the linkage between the evolution of BC molecular structure with the resulted BC properties, environmental functions as well as potential risk, which is critical for understanding the BC environmental behavior and utilization as a multifunctional product. Thus, this review highlights the molecular structure evolution of BC during pyrolysis and the impact of BC physicochemical properties on its sorption behavior, stability, and potential risk in terrestrial and aqueous ecosystems. Given the wide application of BC and its important role in biogeochemical processes, future research should focus on the following: (1) establishing methodology to more precisely predict and design BC properties on the basis of pyrolysis and phase transformation of biomass; (2) developing an assessment system to evaluate the long-term effect of BC on stabilization and bioavailability of contaminants, agrochemicals, and nutrient elements in soils; and (3) elucidating the interaction mechanisms of BC with plant roots, microorganisms, and soil components.
Dynamic remedial action scheme using online transient stability analysis
Shrestha, Arun
Economic pressure and environmental factors have forced the modern power systems to operate closer to their stability limits. However, maintaining transient stability is a fundamental requirement for the operation of interconnected power systems. In North America, power systems are planned and operated to withstand the loss of any single or multiple elements without violating North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) system performance criteria. For a contingency resulting in the loss of multiple elements (Category C), emergency transient stability controls may be necessary to stabilize the power system. Emergency control is designed to sense abnormal conditions and subsequently take pre-determined remedial actions to prevent instability. Commonly known as either Remedial Action Schemes (RAS) or as Special/System Protection Schemes (SPS), these emergency control approaches have been extensively adopted by utilities. RAS are designed to address specific problems, e.g. to increase power transfer, to provide reactive support, to address generator instability, to limit thermal overloads, etc. Possible remedial actions include generator tripping, load shedding, capacitor and reactor switching, static VAR control, etc. Among various RAS types, generation shedding is the most effective and widely used emergency control means for maintaining system stability. In this dissertation, an optimal power flow (OPF)-based generation-shedding RAS is proposed. This scheme uses online transient stability calculation and generator cost function to determine appropriate remedial actions. For transient stability calculation, SIngle Machine Equivalent (SIME) technique is used, which reduces the multimachine power system model to a One-Machine Infinite Bus (OMIB) equivalent and identifies critical machines. Unlike conventional RAS, which are designed using offline simulations, online stability calculations make the proposed RAS dynamic and adapting to any power system
Stability analysis for tidal inlets of Thuan An and Tu Hien using Escoffier diagram
Lam, N.T.; Verhagen, H.J.; Van der Wegen, M.
2004-01-01
Stability analysis of tidal inlets is very important in providing knowledge on the behaviour of tidal inlet and lagoon systems. The analysis results can help to plan and manage the system effectively as well as to provide information for stability design of the inlets. This paper presents a method
Ndibewu, P P; Mgangira, M B; Cingo, N; McCrindle, R I
2010-01-01
The objective of this study was to (1) measure the concentration of four anions (Cl(-), F(-), [image omitted], and [image omitted]) and nine other elements (Al, Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Mn, Fe, Ni, and Si) in two nontraditional biopolymeric chemical stabilizers (EBCS1 and EBCS2), (2) investigate consequent environmental toxicity risk implications, and (3) create awareness regarding environmental health issues associated with metal concentration levels in enzyme-based chemical stabilizers that are now gaining widespread application in road construction and other concrete materials. Potential ecotoxicity impacts were studied on aqueous extracts of EBCS1 and EBCS2 using two thermodynamic properties models: the Pitzer-Mayorga model (calculation of the electrolyte activity coefficients) and the Millero-Pitzer model (calculation of the ionic activity coefficients). Results showed not only high concentrations of a variety of metal ions and inorganic anions, but also a significant variation between two chemical stabilizing mixtures. The mixture (EBCS2) with the lower pH value was richer in all the cationic and anionic species than (EBCS1). Sulfate (SO(2-)(4)) concentrations were found to be higher in EBCS2 than in EBCS1. There was no correlation between electrolyte activity and presence of the ionic species, which may be linked to a possible high ionic environmental activity. The concentrations of trace metals found (Mn, Fe, and Ni) were low compared to those of earth metals (Ba, Ca, K, and Mg). The metal concentrations were higher in EBCS1 than in EBCS2. Data suggest that specific studies are needed to establish "zero" permissible metal ecotoxicity values for elements and anions in any such strong polyelectrolytic enzyme-based chemical stabilizers.
New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe
2015-01-01
Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)
Simon, Anne-Laure; Lugade, Vipul; Bernhardt, Kathie; Larson, A Noelle; Kaufman, Kenton
2017-06-01
Daily living activities are dynamic, requiring spinal motion through space. Current assessment of spinal deformities is based on static measurements from full-spine standing radiographs. Tools to assess dynamic stability during gait might be useful to enhance the standard evaluation. The aim of this study was to evaluate gait dynamic imbalance in patients with spinal deformity using the dynamic stability margin (DSM). Twelve normal subjects and 17 patients with spinal deformity were prospectively recruited. A kinematic 3D gait analysis was performed for the control group (CG) and the spinal deformity group (SDG). The DSM (distance between the extrapolated center of mass and the base of support) and time-distance parameters were calculated for the right and left side during gait. The relationship between DSM and step length was assessed using three variables: gait stability, symmetry, and consistency. Variables' accuracy was validated by a discriminant analysis. Patients with spinal deformity exhibited gait instability according to the DSM (0.25m versus 0.31m) with decreased velocity (1.1ms -1 versus 1.3ms -1 ) and decreased step length (0.32m versus 0.38m). According to the discriminant analysis, gait stability was the more accurate variable (area under the curve AUC=0.98) followed by gait symmetry and consistency. However, gait consistency showed 100% of specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of precision. The DSM showed that patients with spinal malalignment exhibit decreased gait stability, symmetry, and consistency besides gait time-distance parameter changes. Additional work is required to determine how to apply the DSM for preoperative and postoperative spinal deformity management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.
The watchdog role of risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.
1983-01-01
The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de
Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.
2002-01-01
The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
Risk Analysis of the Romanian Banking System – an Aggregated Balance Sheet Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eugen MITRICA
2010-12-01
Full Text Available The paper presents a risk analysis for the current Romanian banking system. The analysis is conducted from the point of view of prudential rules and also from the point of view of Romanian banking system’s exposure to foreign funds, considering the consequences of these features, concerning the soundness and reliability of the banking system. The analysis found a manageable risk level, apparently, although during 2009 and 2010 the expansion of risk indicators was accelerated, but finally, in the late 2010, there are some signs of stabilization. The exposure of Romanian banking system to foreign funds was another important risk source. The exposure to foreign funds had an important decrease during 2009, but in 2010 it seems to stabilize.
Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats
Bier, Vicki M
2008-01-01
Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats
Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis
Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.
2010-01-01
According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suhwan, JI; Shirahama, H.; Koshizuka, S.; Oka, Y.
2001-01-01
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the thermal-hydraulic and the thermal-nuclear coupled stabilities of a supercritical pressure light water-cooled reactor. A stability analysis code at supercritical pressure is developed. Using this code, stabilities of full and partial-power reactor operating at supercritical pressure are investigated by the frequency-domain analysis. Two types of SCRs are analyzed; a supercritical light water reactor (SCLWR) and a supercritical water-cooled fast reactor (SCFR). The same stability criteria as Boiling Water Reactor are applied. The thermal-hydraulic stability of SCLWR and SCFR satisfies the criteria with a reasonable orifice loss coefficient. The decay ratio of the thermal-nuclear coupled stability in SCFR is almost zero because of a small coolant density coefficient of the fast reactor. The evaluated decay ratio of the thermal-nuclear coupled stability is 3,41 ∼ 10 -V at 100% power in SCFR and 0,028 at 100% power in SCLWR. The sensitivity is investigated. It is found that the thermal-hydraulic stability is sensitive to the mass flow rate strongly and the thermal-nuclear coupled stability to the coolant density coefficient. The bottom power peak distribution makes the thermal-nuclear stability worse and the thermal-nuclear stability better. (author)
Dynamic and Static Combination Analysis Method of Slope Stability Analysis during Earthquake
Liang Lu; Zongjian Wang; Xiaoyuan Huang; Bin Zheng; Katsuhiko Arai
2014-01-01
The results of laboratory model tests for simulating the slope failure due to vibration, including unreinforced slope and the slope reinforced by using geotextile, show that the slope failure occurs when a cumulative plastic displacement exceeds a certain critical value. To overcome the defects of conventional stability analysis, which evaluates the slope characteristics only by its strength parameters, a numerical procedure considering the stiffness and deformation of materials and geosynthe...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wen Zhen; Sun Jitao
2009-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium point for delayed Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with impulses, based on nonsmooth analysis method. And we give the criteria of global exponential stability of the unique equilibrium point for the delayed BAM neural networks with impulses using Lyapunov method. The new sufficient condition generalizes and improves the previously known results. Finally, we present examples to illustrate that our results are effective.
Fractal time series analysis of postural stability in elderly and control subjects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Doussot Michel
2007-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The study of balance using stabilogram analysis is of particular interest in the study of falls. Although simple statistical parameters derived from the stabilogram have been shown to predict risk of falls, such measures offer little insight into the underlying control mechanisms responsible for degradation in balance. In contrast, fractal and non-linear time-series analysis of stabilograms, such as estimations of the Hurst exponent (H, may provide information related to the underlying motor control strategies governing postural stability. In order to be adapted for a home-based follow-up of balance, such methods need to be robust, regardless of the experimental protocol, while producing time-series that are as short as possible. The present study compares two methods of calculating H: Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA and Stabilogram Diffusion Analysis (SDA for elderly and control subjects, as well as evaluating the effect of recording duration. Methods Centre of pressure signals were obtained from 90 young adult subjects and 10 elderly subjects. Data were sampled at 100 Hz for 30 s, including stepping onto and off the force plate. Estimations of H were made using sliding windows of 10, 5, and 2.5 s durations, with windows slid forward in 1-s increments. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to test for the effect of time, age and estimation method on the Hurst exponent, while the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC was used as a measure of reliability. Results Both SDA and DFA methods were able to identify differences in postural stability between control and elderly subjects for time series as short as 5 s, with ICC values as high as 0.75 for DFA. Conclusion Both methods would be well-suited to non-invasive longitudinal assessment of balance. In addition, reliable estimations of H were obtained from time series as short as 5 s.
Analysis of feeding function and jaw stability in bedridden elderly.
Tamura, Fumiyo; Mizukami, Miki; Ayano, Rika; Mukai, Yoshiharu
2002-01-01
The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between jaw stability and the feeding function of 53 bedridden elderly dysphagic patients. Investigations included a questionnaire on daily life activities and meals, oral examinations, functional tests for feeding ability, and assessments of feeding function during the meal. The results of intraoral examination of this patient population for jaw stability revealed that 34.0% of individuals had posterior support for occlusion regardless of whether they had natural teeth or dentures. Thus, the number classified as having mandibular stability (ST) was 18 and that with no mandibular stability (NST) was 35. In a Repetitive Saliva Swallowing Test (RSST), 83.3% of the NST group and 40.0% of the ST group were unable to swallow more than 3 times within 30 seconds. In a water swallowing test, 91.4% of the NST of group was unable to swallow 15 mL of water by a single swallow, while 40.0% of ST group was capable. The results suggest that jaw stabilization by occlusion with the posterior teeth or dental prosthetics is important to feeding function, particularly swallowing.
Reconstructed phase spaces of intrinsic mode functions. Application to postural stability analysis.
Snoussi, Hichem; Amoud, Hassan; Doussot, Michel; Hewson, David; Duchêne, Jacques
2006-01-01
In this contribution, we propose an efficient nonlinear analysis method characterizing postural steadiness. The analyzed signal is the displacement of the centre of pressure (COP) collected from a force plate used for measuring postural sway. The proposed method consists of analyzing the nonlinear dynamics of the intrinsic mode functions (IMF) of the COP signal. The nonlinear properties are assessed through the reconstructed phase spaces of the different IMFs. This study shows some specific geometries of the attractors of some intrinsic modes. Moreover, the volume spanned by the geometric attractors in the reconstructed phase space represents an efficient indicator of the postural stability of the subject. Experiments results corroborate the effectiveness of the method to blindly discriminate young subjects, elderly subjects and subjects presenting a risk of falling.
Strength Analysis of Coconut Fiber Stabilized Earth for Farm Structures
Enokela, O. S.; P. O, Alada
2012-07-01
Investigation of the strength characteristic of soil from alluvial deposit of River Benue in makurdi stabilized with coconut fiber as a stabilizer was carried as local building material for farm structure. Processed coconut fibers were mixed with the soil at four different mix ratios of 1% fiber, 2% fiber, 3% fiber and 4% fiber by percentage weight with 0% fiber as control. Compaction test and compressive strength were carried out on the various stabilizing ratio. From the compaction test, the correlation between the maximum dry density and optimum moisture content is a second order polynomial with a coefficient of 63% obtained at1.91kg/m3and 20.0% respectively while the compressive strength test shows an optimum failure load of 8.62N/mm2 at 2%fibre:100% soil mix ratio at 2.16 maximum dry density.
Analytic robust stability analysis of SVD orbit feedback
Pfingstner, Jürgen
2012-01-01
Orbit feedback controllers are indispensable for the operation of modern particle accelerators. Many such controllers are based on the decoupling of the inputs and outputs of the system to be controlled with the help of the singular value decomposition (SVD controller). It is crucial to verify the stability of SVD controllers, also in the presence of mismatches between the used accelerator model and the real machine (robust stability problem). In this paper, analytical criteria for guaranteed stability margins of SVD orbit feedback systems for three different types of model mismatches are presented: scaling errors of actuators and BPMs (beam position monitors) and additive errors of the orbit response matrix. For the derivation of these criteria, techniques from robust control theory have been used, e.g the small gain theorem. The obtained criteria can be easily applied directly to other SVD orbit feedback systems. As an example, the criteria were applied to the orbit feedback system of the Compact Linear ...
Stability analysis of the Euler discretization for SIR epidemic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suryanto, Agus
2014-01-01
In this paper we consider a discrete SIR epidemic model obtained by the Euler method. For that discrete model, existence of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is established. Sufficient conditions on the local asymptotical stability of both disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are also derived. It is found that the local asymptotical stability of the existing equilibrium is achieved only for a small time step size h. If h is further increased and passes the critical value, then both equilibriums will lose their stability. Our numerical simulations show that a complex dynamical behavior such as bifurcation or chaos phenomenon will appear for relatively large h. Both analytical and numerical results show that the discrete SIR model has a richer dynamical behavior than its continuous counterpart
Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2015-04-01
A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.
Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks
Crowder, Martin J
2012-01-01
Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena MARGARINT
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Actuality: The empirical studies on the impact of the supervision on the stability of the banking sector are mitigated, varying depending on the particular characteristics of the bank and, in addition, the country's policy in which banks operate. This is why this study is important for the banking sector in Moldova. Purpose: The objective of this article is to studies the effects of the banking supervision on the risk-taking of banks and, consequently, the stability of the banking sector in Moldova. Methods: To order to achieve its purpose, the author applied the method of static panel data with random effect. Results: This empirical analysis reported the following results: increased restrictions on the activities of banks increases the stability of the banking sector. On the other hand, the power and independence of the supervisory authority have a negative impact on the stability of Moldovan banks. The increase of the capital level strengthens the stability of Moldovan banks and, at the same time, reduces the risk. Thus, capital regulations are an important pillar of the policy of the regulation of the banking sector of Moldova.
Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons
Redd, L. T.; Bland, S. R.; Bennett, R. M.
1973-01-01
A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.
Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems
Lee, John C
2011-01-01
The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a
Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne
2014-01-01
Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...
Harmonics and voltage stability analysis in power systems including
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In this study, non-sinusoidal quantities and voltage stability, both known as power quality criteria, are examined together in detail. The widespread use of power electronics elements cause the existence of signiﬁcant non-sinusoidal quantities in the system. These non-sinusoidal quantities can create serious harmonic ...
A reliable method for the stability analysis of structures ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The detection of structural configurations with singular tangent stiffness matrix is essential because they can be unstable. The secondary paths, especially in unstable buckling, can play the most important role in the loss of stability and collapse of the structure. A new method for reliable detection and accurate computation of ...
Stability analysis of switched linear systems defined by graphs
Athanasopoulos, N.; Lazar, M.
2014-01-01
We present necessary and sufficient conditions for global exponential stability for switched discrete-time linear systems, under arbitrary switching, which is constrained within a set of admissible transitions. The class of systems studied includes the family of systems under arbitrary switching,
Experimental analysis of aerodynamic stability of stress-ribbon footbridges
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Pirner, Miroš; Fischer, Ondřej
1999-01-01
Roč. 2, č. 2 (1999), s. 95-104 ISSN 1226-6116 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : footbridges * aerodynamic stability * bending-torsional vibrations * wind-excited vibrations * wind-tunnel in civil engineering Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering http://koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=KJKHCF_1999_v2n2_95&ordernum=5
Dynamical behavior and Jacobi stability analysis of wound strings
Lake, Matthew J.; Harko, Tiberiu
2016-06-01
We numerically solve the equations of motion (EOM) for two models of circular cosmic string loops with windings in a simply connected internal space. Since the windings cannot be topologically stabilized, stability must be achieved (if at all) dynamically. As toy models for realistic compactifications, we consider windings on a small section of mathbb {R}^2, which is valid as an approximation to any simply connected internal manifold if the winding radius is sufficiently small, and windings on an S^2 of constant radius mathcal {R}. We then use Kosambi-Cartan-Chern (KCC) theory to analyze the Jacobi stability of the string equations and determine bounds on the physical parameters that ensure dynamical stability of the windings. We find that, for the same initial conditions, the curvature and topology of the internal space have nontrivial effects on the microscopic behavior of the string in the higher dimensions, but that the macroscopic behavior is remarkably insensitive to the details of the motion in the compact space. This suggests that higher-dimensional signatures may be extremely difficult to detect in the effective (3+1)-dimensional dynamics of strings compactified on an internal space, even if configurations with nontrivial windings persist over long time periods.
Dynamics, stability analysis and quantization of β-Fermi–Pasta ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
We study the well-known one-dimensional problem of particles with nonlinear interaction. The -Fermi–Pasta–Ulam model is the special case of quadratic and quartic interaction potential among nearest neighbours. We enumerate and classify the simple periodic orbits for this system and find the stability zones, ...
Stability and dynamic analysis of a service robot
Bouten, J.T.; Alvarez Aguirre, A.; Derks, R.J.S.; Nijmeijer, H.
2011-01-01
A Remote Operated SErvice robot (ROSE) is built to assist elderly people in health care. The use of technology to assist the elderly and disabled is desirable to ease the burden on the decreasing working population in the Netherlands and all over Europe. In this report the stability of the ROSE
Surface stability analysis of dikes subject to overtopping and infiltration
Karim, U. F.A.; Tran, Q.T.; Meij, R.
2015-01-01
The key contribution of this paper is the coupling of hydraulic loading conditions due to wave overtopping with slope stability of the surface layer of earthen flood protection embankments. Overtopping wave conditions impact overtopping discharges and infiltration time, and thereby the infiltration
Stability analysis of multipoint tool equipped with metal cutting ceramics
Maksarov, V. V.; Khalimonenko, A. D.; Matrenichev, K. G.
2017-10-01
The article highlights the issues of determining the stability of the cutting process by a multipoint cutting tool equipped with cutting ceramics. There were some recommendations offered on the choice of parameters of replaceable cutting ceramic plates for milling based of the conducted researches. Ceramic plates for milling are proposed to be selected on the basis of value of their electrical volume resistivity.
Intact stability analysis of dead ship conditions using FORM
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Choi, Ju Hyuck; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Kristensen, Hans Otto Holmegaard
2017-01-01
The IMO Weather Criterion has proven to be the governing stability criteria regarding minimum GM for e.g. small ferries and large passenger ships. The formulation of the Weather Criterion is based on some empirical relations derived many years ago for vessels not necessarily representative for cu...
Post Earthquack Slope Stability Analysis of Rubble Mound Breakwater
Amin Moradi; Amir Mahmoudzadeh; Yahya Rahim Safavi
2017-01-01
Rubble mound breakwaters are structures built mainly of quarried rock. Generally armourstone or artificial concrete armour units are used for the outer armour layer,which should protect the structure againist wave attack. Armour stones and concrete armoure unites in this outer layer are usually placed with care to obtain effective interlocking and consequently better stability .
Stability analysis of nonlinear systems with slope restricted nonlinearities.
Liu, Xian; Du, Jiajia; Gao, Qing
2014-01-01
The problem of absolute stability of Lur'e systems with sector and slope restricted nonlinearities is revisited. Novel time-domain and frequency-domain criteria are established by using the Lyapunov method and the well-known Kalman-Yakubovich-Popov (KYP) lemma. The criteria strengthen some existing results. Simulations are given to illustrate the efficiency of the results.
Stability Analysis of Nonlinear Systems with Slope Restricted Nonlinearities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xian Liu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The problem of absolute stability of Lur’e systems with sector and slope restricted nonlinearities is revisited. Novel time-domain and frequency-domain criteria are established by using the Lyapunov method and the well-known Kalman-Yakubovich-Popov (KYP lemma. The criteria strengthen some existing results. Simulations are given to illustrate the efficiency of the results.
Dynamical behavior and Jacobi stability analysis of wound strings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lake, Matthew J. [Naresuan University, The Institute for Fundamental Study, ' ' The Tah Poe Academia Institute' ' , Phitsanulok (Thailand); Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Ministry of Education, Bangkok (Thailand); Harko, Tiberiu [Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Physics, Cluj-Napoca (Romania); University College London, Department of Mathematics, London (United Kingdom)
2016-06-15
We numerically solve the equations of motion (EOM) for two models of circular cosmic string loops with windings in a simply connected internal space. Since the windings cannot be topologically stabilized, stability must be achieved (if at all) dynamically. As toy models for realistic compactifications, we consider windings on a small section of R{sup 2}, which is valid as an approximation to any simply connected internal manifold if the winding radius is sufficiently small, and windings on an S{sup 2} of constant radius R. We then use Kosambi-Cartan-Chern (KCC) theory to analyze the Jacobi stability of the string equations and determine bounds on the physical parameters that ensure dynamical stability of the windings. We find that, for the same initial conditions, the curvature and topology of the internal space have nontrivial effects on the microscopic behavior of the string in the higher dimensions, but that the macroscopic behavior is remarkably insensitive to the details of the motion in the compact space. This suggests that higher-dimensional signatures may be extremely difficult to detect in the effective (3+1)-dimensional dynamics of strings compactified on an internal space, even if configurations with nontrivial windings persist over long time periods. (orig.)
Stability analysis of direct current control in current source rectifier
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lu, Dapeng; Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede
2017-01-01
Current source rectifier with high switching frequency has a great potential for improving the power efficiency and power density in ac-dc power conversion. This paper analyzes the stability of direct current control based on the time delay effect. Small signal model including dynamic behaviors...
Studies of iso-alpha-acids : analysis, purification, and stability.
Khatib, Alfi
2006-01-01
The female cones of hop (Humulus lupulus L.) are added to beer, providing taste and flavour and contributing to the stability of foam. The main constituents of hop related to these properties are generically known as alpha-acids. During the brewing process, these acids are isomerized, resulting in
On the numerical stability analysis of pipelined Krylov subspace methods
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Carson, E.T.; Rozložník, Miroslav; Strakoš, Z.; Tichý, P.; Tůma, M.
submitted 2017 (2018) R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Krylov subspace methods * the conjugate gradient method * numerical stability * inexact computations * delay of convergence * maximal attainable accuracy * pipelined Krylov subspace methods * exascale computations
Genotype x environment interaction and stability analysis for yield ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Chickpea is the major pulse crop cultivated in Ethiopia. However, its production is constrained due to genotype instability and environmental variability. This research was carried out to examine the magnitude of environmental effect on yield of chickpea genotypes and to investigate the stability and adaptability of genotypes ...
Analysis and stability of fatty acid esterified xanthophylls from microalgae
Weesepoel, Y.J.A.
2014-01-01
Fatty acid esterified xanthophylls (e.g. astaxanthin) produced by microalgae are regarded as a natural alternative for food colourants, but little is known on the stability of these compounds in foods. The aims of this research were (i) to develop protocols to analyze esterified
Analysis and Optimization of Entry Stability in Underground Longwall Mining
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yubing Gao
2017-11-01
Full Text Available For sustainable utilization of limited coal resources, it is important to increase the coal recovery rate and reduce mine accidents, especially those occurring in the entry (gateroad. Entry stabilities are vital for ventilation, transportation and other essential services in underground coal mining. In the present study, a finite difference model was built to investigate stress evolutions around the entry, and true triaxial tests were carried out at the laboratory to explore entry wall stabilities under different mining conditions. The modeling and experimental results indicated that a wide coal pillar was favorable for entry stabilities, but oversize pillars caused a serious waste of coal resources. As the width of the entry wall decreased, the integrated vertical stress, induced by two adjacent mining panels, coupled with each other and experienced an increase on the entry wall, which inevitably weakened the stability of the entry. Therefore, mining with coal pillars always involves a tradeoff between economy and safety. To address this problem, an innovative non-pillar mining technique by optimizing the entry surrounding structures was proposed. Numerical simulation showed that the deformation of the entry roof decreased by approximately 66% after adopting the new approach, compared with that using the conventional mining method. Field monitoring indicated that the stress condition of the entry was signiﬁcantly improved and the average roof pressure decreased by appropriately 60.33% after adopting the new technique. This work provides an economical and effective approach to achieve sustainable exploitation of underground coal resources.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Park, Ju H.
2007-01-01
This paper considers the robust stability analysis of cellular neural networks with discrete and distributed delays. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, a novel stability criterion guaranteeing the global robust convergence of the equilibrium point is derived. The criterion can be solved easily by various convex optimization algorithms. An example is given to illustrate the usefulness of our results
Advanced techniques for the analysis of crisis stability, deterrence, and latency
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Canavan, G.H.
1997-12-01
Studies on crisis stability, deterrence, and latency are presented in chronological order, which also reflects their logical order of development, captures the main features of stability analysis; relates first strike, crisis, and arms control stability as seen from US and Russian perspective; and addresses questions such as whether uncertainty in damage preference or defense deployment can be destabilizing. It illustrates the problems with alternative metrics, latency and reconstitution, and deep unilateral and proportional force reductions.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LI Shoufu
2005-01-01
A series of stability, contractivity and asymptotic stability results of the solutions to nonlinear stiff Volterra functional differential equations (VFDEs) in Banach spaces is obtained, which provides the unified theoretical foundation for the stability analysis of solutions to nonlinear stiff problems in ordinary differential equations(ODEs), delay differential equations(DDEs), integro-differential equations(IDEs) and VFDEs of other type which appear in practice.
Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration
Gofar Nurly; Rahardjo Harianto
2017-01-01
This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–...
Garg, Hina; Dibble, Leland E; Schubert, Michael C; Sibthorp, Jim; Foreman, K Bo; Gappmaier, Eduard
2018-05-05
Despite the common complaints of dizziness and demyelination of afferent or efferent pathways to and from the vestibular nuclei which may adversely affect the angular Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (aVOR) and vestibulo-spinal function in persons with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS), few studies have examined gaze and dynamic balance function in PwMS. 1) Determine the differences in gaze stability, dynamic balance and participation measures between PwMS and controls, 2) Examine the relationships between gaze stability, dynamic balance and participation. Nineteen ambulatory PwMS at fall-risk and 14 age-matched controls were recruited. Outcomes included (a) gaze stability [angular Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (aVOR) gain (ratio of eye to head velocity); number of Compensatory Saccades (CS) per head rotation; CS latency; gaze position error; Coefficient of Variation (CV) of aVOR gain], (b) dynamic balance [Functional Gait Assessment, FGA; four square step test], and (c) participation [dizziness handicap inventory; activities-specific balance confidence scale]. Separate independent t-tests and Pearson's correlations were calculated. PwMS were age = 53 ± 11.7yrs and had 4.2 ± 3.3 falls/yr. PwMS demonstrated significant (pbalance and participation measures compared to controls. CV of aVOR gain and CS latency were significantly correlated with FGA. Deficits and correlations across a spectrum of disability measures highlight the relevance of gaze and dynamic balance assessment in PwMS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Goto, Tomoko; Zheng, Xiaodong; Klyce, Stephen D; Kataoka, Hisashi; Uno, Toshihiko; Yamaguchi, Masahiko; Karon, Mike; Hirano, Sumie; Okamoto, Shigeki; Ohashi, Yuichi
2004-01-01
To evaluate the tear film stability of patients before and after laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using the tear film stability analysis system (TSAS). Prospective observational case series. New videokeratography software for a topographic modeling system (TMS-2N) was developed that can automatically capture consecutive corneal surface images every second for 10 seconds. Thirty-four subjects (64 eyes) who underwent myopia LASIK were enrolled in this study. All subjects were examined with the new system before LASIK and at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after the surgery. Corneal topographs were analyzed for tear breakup time (TMS breakup time) and breakup area (TMS breakup area). Based on pre-LASIK TSAS analysis, subjects were separated into normal and abnormal TSAS value groups. The criteria for the normal group were either TMS breakup time more than 5 seconds or TMS breakup area less than 0.2. The percentage of the occurrence of superficial punctuate keratitis was compared between the two groups with regard to subject's dry eye signs and symptoms. Tear film stability decreased significantly during the early period after LASIK, as indexed by decreased TMS breakup time and increased TMS breakup area. Tear film instability resolved at 6 months after surgery. Before LASIK, 22 subjects (43 eyes) had normal TSAS evaluation and 12 subjects (21 eyes) were abnormal. After LASIK, among normal TSAS value eyes, 8 of 43 (18.6%) eyes developed superficial punctuate keratitis. In sharp contrast, 14 of 21 (66.7%) eyes in the abnormal group displayed superficial punctuate keratitis, correlating well with the patients' dry eye symptoms. The difference in the presence of superficial punctuate keratitis after LASIK between normal and abnormal TSAS value groups was statistically significant (P <.001). Subjects with abnormal TSAS evaluation also displayed resistance to dry eye treatment and had extended period of recovery. Tear film stability analysis can be a useful
Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mo Chongxun
2008-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.
Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.
Johansson, Henrik
2002-07-01
Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.
Frequency scanning-based stability analysis method for grid-connected inverter system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wang, Yanbo; Wang, Xiongfei; Blaabjerg, Frede
2017-01-01
This paper proposes a frequency scanning-based impedance analysis for stability assessment of grid-connected inverter system, which is able to perform stability assessment without using system mathematical models and inherit the superior feature of impedance-based stability criterion with conside......This paper proposes a frequency scanning-based impedance analysis for stability assessment of grid-connected inverter system, which is able to perform stability assessment without using system mathematical models and inherit the superior feature of impedance-based stability criterion...... with consideration of the inverter nonlinearities. Small current disturbance is injected into grid-connected inverter system in a particular frequency range, and the impedance is computed according to the harmonic-frequency response using Fourier analysis, and then the stability is predicted on the basis...... of the impedance stability criterion. The stability issues of grid-connected inverters with grid-current feedback and the converter-current feedback are addressed using the proposed method. The results obtained from simulation and experiments validate the effectiveness of the method. The frequency scanning...
Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anass BAYAGA
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.
Risk analysis as a decision tool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.
1985-01-01
From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de
Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)
2009-07-01
The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)
Risk analysis in oil spill response planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.
2005-01-01
Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs
Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.
1992-01-01
The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance
Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1979-01-01
Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis
Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure
MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil
2011-01-01
National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...
Risk analysis of external radiation therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arvidsson, Marcus
2011-09-01
External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy
Risk and value analysis of SETI
Billingham, J.
1990-01-01
This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.
Ballooning stability analysis of JET H-mode discharges
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
O'Brien, D.P.; Galvao, R.; Keilhacker, M.; Lazzaro, E.; Watkins, M.L.
1989-01-01
Previous studies of the stability of a large aspect ratio model equilibrium to ideal MHD ballooning modes have shown that across the bulk of the plasma there exist two marginally stable values of the pressure gradient parameter α. These define an unstable zone which separates the first (small α) stable region from the second (large α) stable region. Close to the separatrix, however, the first and second regions can coalesce when the surface averaged current density, Λ, exceeds a critical value. The plasma in this region is then stable to ballooning modes at all values of the pressure gradient. In this paper we extend these results to JET H-mode equilibria using a finite aspect ratio ballooning formalism, and assess the relevance of ideal ballooning stability in these discharges. In particular we analyse shot 15894 at time 56 sec. which is 1.3 s into the H-phase. (author) 4 refs., 4 figs
Stability analysis of rough surfaces in adhesive normal contact
Rey, Valentine; Bleyer, Jeremy
2018-03-01
This paper deals with adhesive frictionless normal contact between one elastic flat solid and one stiff solid with rough surface. After computation of the equilibrium solution of the energy minimization principle and respecting the contact constraints, we aim at studying the stability of this equilibrium solution. This study of stability implies solving an eigenvalue problem with inequality constraints. To achieve this goal, we propose a proximal algorithm which enables qualifying the solution as stable or unstable and that gives the instability modes. This method has a low computational cost since no linear system inversion is required and is also suitable for parallel implementation. Illustrations are given for the Hertzian contact and for rough contact.
A new variance stabilizing transformation for gene expression data analysis.
Kelmansky, Diana M; Martínez, Elena J; Leiva, Víctor
2013-12-01
In this paper, we introduce a new family of power transformations, which has the generalized logarithm as one of its members, in the same manner as the usual logarithm belongs to the family of Box-Cox power transformations. Although the new family has been developed for analyzing gene expression data, it allows a wider scope of mean-variance related data to be reached. We study the analytical properties of the new family of transformations, as well as the mean-variance relationships that are stabilized by using its members. We propose a methodology based on this new family, which includes a simple strategy for selecting the family member adequate for a data set. We evaluate the finite sample behavior of different classical and robust estimators based on this strategy by Monte Carlo simulations. We analyze real genomic data by using the proposed transformation to empirically show how the new methodology allows the variance of these data to be stabilized.
STABILITY ANALYSIS OF RADIAL TURNING PROCESS FOR SUPERALLOYS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto JIMÉNEZ
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Stability detection in machining processes is an essential component for the design of efficient machining processes. Automatic methods are able to determine when instability is happening and prevent possible machine failures. In this work a variety of methods are proposed for detecting stability anomalies based on the measured forces in the radial turning process of superalloys. Two different methods are proposed to determine instabilities. Each one is tested on real data obtained in the machining of Waspalloy, Haynes 282 and Inconel 718. Experimental data, in both Conventional and High Pressure Coolant (HPC environments, are set in four different states depending on materials grain size and Hard-ness (LGA, LGS, SGA and SGS. Results reveal that PCA method is useful for visualization of the process and detection of anomalies in online processes.
Stability and Change in Work Values: A Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies
Jin, Jing; Rounds, James
2012-01-01
A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies was conducted to investigate stability and change in work values across the life span. Both rank-order stability and mean-level change were investigated using an integrative classification for intrinsic, extrinsic, social and status work values (Ross, Schwartz, & Surkis, 1999). Results of rank-order…
Stability analysis of natural convection in superposed fluid and porous layers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirata, S.C.; Goyeau, B.; Gobin, D.; Cotta, R.M.
2005-01-01
A linear stability analysis of the onset of thermal natural convection in superposed fluid and porous layers is called out. The resulting eigenvalue problem is solved using a integral transformation technique. The effect of the variation of the Darcy number on the stability of the system is analyzed. (authors)
Stability analysis of natural convection in superposed fluid and porous layers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hirata, S.C.; Goyeau, B.; Gobin, D. [Paris-11 Univ. - Paris-6, FAST - UMR CNRS 7608, 91 - Orsay (France); Cotta, R.M. [Rio de Janeiro Univ. (LTTC/PEM/EE/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)
2005-07-01
A linear stability analysis of the onset of thermal natural convection in superposed fluid and porous layers is called out. The resulting eigenvalue problem is solved using a integral transformation technique. The effect of the variation of the Darcy number on the stability of the system is analyzed. (authors)
Stability analysis of switched linear systems defined by graphs
Athanasopoulos, Nikolaos; Lazar, Mircea
2015-01-01
We present necessary and sufficient conditions for global exponential stability for switched discrete-time linear systems, under arbitrary switching, which is constrained within a set of admissible transitions. The class of systems studied includes the family of systems under arbitrary switching, periodic systems, and systems with minimum and maximum dwell time specifications. To reach the result, we describe the set of rules that define the admissible transitions with a weighted directed gra...
Stability and bifurcation analysis in a delayed SIR model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jiang Zhichao; Wei Junjie
2008-01-01
In this paper, a time-delayed SIR model with a nonlinear incidence rate is considered. The existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium is established by analyzing the distribution of the characteristic values. A explicit algorithm for determining the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are derived by using the normal form and the center manifold theory. Numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out
PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF LONGITUDINAL STABILITY UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ievgen Udartsev
2013-10-01
Full Text Available 1024x768 We consider the aerodynamic characteristics of unmanned aircraft container type, which were obtained in a wind tunnel and refined amended by soot blowing elements propeller system and the influence of the earth's surface. The estimation of longitudinal static stability and its dependence on altitude, damping, coordinates of center of gravity, shoulder horizontal tail, wings rejection of mechanization. The variation of these parameters enables to optimize balancing system with minimal losses. Normal 0 false false false
Preliminary Experimental Analysis of Soil Stabilizers for Contamination Control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lagos, L.; Varona, J.; Zidan, A.; Gudavalli, R.; Wu, Kuang-His
2006-01-01
A major focus of Department of Energy's (DOE's) environmental management mission at the Hanford site involves characterizing and remediating contaminated soil and groundwater; stabilizing contaminated soil; remediating disposal sites; decontaminating and decommissioning structures, and demolishing former plutonium production process buildings, nuclear reactors, and separation plants; maintaining inactive waste sites; transitioning facilities into the surveillance and maintenance program; and mitigating effects to biological and cultural resources from site development and environmental cleanup and restoration activities. For example, a total of 470,914 metric tons of contaminated soil from 100 Areas remediation activities were disposed at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) during 2004. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) is supporting the Hanford's site remediation program by analyzing the effectiveness of several soil stabilizers (fixatives) for contamination control during excavation activities. The study is focusing on determining the effects of varying soil conditions, temperature, humidity and wind velocity on the effectiveness of the candidate stabilizers. The test matrix consists of a soil penetration-depth study, wind tunnel experiments for determination of threshold velocity, and temperature and moisture-controlled drying/curing experiments. These three set of experiments are designed to verify performance metrics, as well as provide insight into what fundamental forces are altered by the use of the stabilizer. This paper only presents the preliminary results obtained during wind tunnel experiments using dry Hanford soil samples (with 2.7% moisture by weight). These dry soil samples were exposed to varying wind speeds from 2.22 m/sec to 8.88 m/sec. Furthermore, airborne particulate data was collected for the dry Hanford soil experiments using an aerosol analyzer instrument. (authors)
Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.
1995-01-01
During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)
LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Schmidt
2012-08-01
Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.
The Stability of Social Desirability: A Latent Change Analysis.
Haberecht, Katja; Schnuerer, Inga; Gaertner, Beate; John, Ulrich; Freyer-Adam, Jennis
2015-08-01
Social desirability has been shown to be stable in samples with higher school education. However, little is known about the stability of social desirability in more heterogeneous samples differing in school education. This study aimed to investigate the stability of social desirability and which factors predict interindividual differences in intraindividual change. As part of a randomized controlled trial, 1,243 job seekers with unhealthy alcohol use were systematically recruited at three job agencies. A total of 1,094 individuals (87.8%) participated in at least one of two follow-ups (6 and 15 months after baseline) and constitute this study's sample. The Social Desirability Scale-17 was applied. Two latent change models were conducted: Model 1 tested for interindividual differences in intraindividual change of social desirability between both follow-ups; Model 2 included possible predictors (age, sex, education, current employment status) of interindividual differences in intraindividual change. Model 1 revealed a significant decrease of social desirability over time. Model 2 revealed school education to be the only significant predictor of change. These findings indicate that stability of social desirability may depend on school education. It may not be as stable in individuals with higher school education as in individuals with lower education. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Advanced techniques for the analysis of crisis stability, deterrence, and latency
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Canavan, G.H.
1998-12-31
This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The principal results of studies on crisis stability, deterrence, and latency are presented in their order of development. They capture the main features of stability analysis; relate first strike, crisis, and arms control stability as seen from US and Russian perspective; and address whether different metrics, uncertain damage preferences, or the deployment of defenses can be destabilizing. The report explores differences between unilateral and proportional force reductions in the region of deep reductions where concern shifts from stability to latency.
Reproducibility analysis of the stability and treatment of vertebral metastatic lesions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphael de Rezende Pratali
2014-09-01
Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To investigate the reproducibility among spine surgeons in defining the treatment of vertebral metastatic lesions, taking into account the mechanical stability of injuries. METHODS: Twenty cases of isolated vertebral metastatic lesions were presented to ten experts. Their opinion was then asked about the stability of the lesion, as well as their treatment option. RESULTS: The interobserver Kappa coefficient obtained both for stability analysis as to the decision of the treatment was poor (0.334 and 0.248, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Poor interobserver reproducibility was observed in deciding the treatment of vertebral metastatic lesions when considering the stability of the lesions.
Long term stability analysis of cast iron shaft linings after Coal Mine closure and flooding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hadj-Hassen, F.; Bienvenu, Y.; Noirel, J.F.; Metz, M.
2005-01-01
This paper presents the results of a study conducted to analyse the long term stability of the cast iron shaft lining after coal mine closure and flooding. The attention is mainly focused on the behaviour during the critical phase of flooding as well as the phase corresponding to the disappearance of the water pressure and the stabilization of the environment. This pluri-disciplinary study was conducted by a team combining specialists in rock mechanics who identified the main risks and the conditions of stability of the lining and specialists in metallurgy who studied the composition of the cast iron and its corrosion behaviour after exposure to mine water. (authors)
Long term stability analysis of cast iron shaft linings after Coal Mine closure and flooding
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hadj-Hassen, F. [Ecole des Mines de Paris - CGES, 77 - Fontainebleau (France); Bienvenu, Y. [Ecole des Mines de Paris, CM, 91 - Evry (France); Noirel, J.F. [Charbonnages de France, DTN, 57 - Freyming Merlebach (France); Metz, M. [charbonnages de France, ESA, 57 - Freyming Merlebach (France)
2005-07-01
This paper presents the results of a study conducted to analyse the long term stability of the cast iron shaft lining after coal mine closure and flooding. The attention is mainly focused on the behaviour during the critical phase of flooding as well as the phase corresponding to the disappearance of the water pressure and the stabilization of the environment. This pluri-disciplinary study was conducted by a team combining specialists in rock mechanics who identified the main risks and the conditions of stability of the lining and specialists in metallurgy who studied the composition of the cast iron and its corrosion behaviour after exposure to mine water. (authors)
Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.
1997-01-01
This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA
Color stability of esthetic restorative materials: a spectrophotometric analysis.
Poggio, Claudio; Ceci, Matteo; Beltrami, Riccardo; Mirando, Maria; Wassim, Jaffal; Colombo, Marco
2016-12-01
Objective: The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the color stability of different restorative materials (one microfilled composite, one nanofilled composite, one nanohybrid composite and one Ormocer-based composite) after exposure to different staining solutions (coffee, coca-cola and red wine). Material and methods: All materials were polymerized into silicon rings (2 mm ×6 mm ×8 mm) to obtain specimens identical in size. Thirty cylindrical specimens of each material were prepared. They were immersed in staining solutions over a 28-day test period. A colorimetric evaluation according to the CIE L*a*b* system was performed by a blind trained operator at 7, 14, 21, 28 days of the staining process. The Shapiro-Wilk test and Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA were applied to assess significant differences among restorative materials. The paired t -test was applied to test which CIE L*a*b* parameters significantly changed after immersion in staining solutions. Results: All restorative materials showed clinically perceptible color differences after immersion in coffee. L* and b* values showed the highest variability. Coca cola and red wine did not influence the color stability for all restorative materials except for Filtek Supreme XTE. Conclusions: Coffee caused a significant color change in all types of tested composite resins. Filtek Supreme XTE demonstrated alone a staining susceptibility to red wine; no other significant differences among the materials were demonstrated. Long-term exposure to some food dyes (coffee in particular) can significantly affect the color stability of modern esthetic restorative materials regardless of materials' different composition.
Stability Analysis of Interconnected Fuzzy Systems Using the Fuzzy Lyapunov Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ken Yeh
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The fuzzy Lyapunov method is investigated for use with a class of interconnected fuzzy systems. The interconnected fuzzy systems consist of J interconnected fuzzy subsystems, and the stability analysis is based on Lyapunov functions. Based on traditional Lyapunov stability theory, we further propose a fuzzy Lyapunov method for the stability analysis of interconnected fuzzy systems. The fuzzy Lyapunov function is defined in fuzzy blending quadratic Lyapunov functions. Some stability conditions are derived through the use of fuzzy Lyapunov functions to ensure that the interconnected fuzzy systems are asymptotically stable. Common solutions can be obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs that are numerically feasible. Finally, simulations are performed in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed stability conditions in this paper.
Fast simulation of wind generation for frequency stability analysis in island power systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Conroy, James [EirGrid, Dublin (Ireland)
2010-07-01
Frequency stability is a major issue for power system planning and operation in an island power system such as Ireland. As increasing amounts of variable speed wind generation are added to the system, this issue becomes more prominent, as variable speed wind generation does not provide an inherent inertial response. This lack of an inertial response means that simplified models for variable speed wind farms can be used for investigating frequency stability. EirGrid uses DIgSILENT Power Factory (as well as other software tools) to investigate frequency stability. In PowerFactory, an automation program has been created to convert detailed wind farm representation (as necessary for other types of analysis) to negative load models for frequency stability analysis. The advantage of this approach is much-improved simulation speed without loss of accuracy. This approach can also be to study future wind energy targets, and long-term simulation of voltage stability. (orig.)
Bifurcation and stability analysis of a nonlinear milling process
Weremczuk, Andrzej; Rusinek, Rafal; Warminski, Jerzy
2018-01-01
Numerical investigations of milling operations dynamics are presented in this paper. A two degree of freedom nonlinear model is used to study workpiece-tool vibrations. The analyzed model takes into account both flexibility of the tool and the workpiece. The dynamics of the milling process is described by the discontinuous ordinary differential equation with time delay, which can cause process instability. First, stability lobes diagrams are created on the basis of the parameters determined in impact test of an end mill and workpiece. Next, the bifurcations diagrams are performed for different values of rotational speeds.
Analysis of smoke trailers at individual classes of atmosphere stability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carach, V.; Macala, J.
2007-01-01
At the present most endangered element of the environment is currently atmosphere and its pollution that rapidly accrue. Pollutants are emitted from air pollution sources. The output of pollutant from air pollution source is creating so-called smoke screen. Smoke screens can be observed from point sources of air pollution - smokestacks, up-cast. The purpose of this article was to build theoretical models of smoke screens rise from point source at different meteorological conditions characterized with fifth classes of atmosphere stability. (authors)
Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.
1982-06-01
The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments
AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior
2008-12-01
Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.
N'Doye, Ibrahima; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem
2015-01-01
, and show the existence of chaos. The behavior and stability analysis of the integer-order and the fractional commensurate and non-commensurate orders of a fractional viscoelastic fluids system, which exhibits chaos, are presented as well.
This Applications Analysis Report evaluates the solidification/stabilization treatment process of Silicate Technology Corporation (STC) for the on-site treatment of hazardous waste. The STC immobilization technology utilizes a proprietary product (FMS Silicate) to chemically stab...
Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.
Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented
Application of linearized model to the stability analysis of the pressurized water reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Haipeng; Huang Xiaojin; Zhang Liangju
2008-01-01
A Linear Time-Invariant model of the Pressurized Water Reactor is formulated through the linearization of the nonlinear model. The model simulation results show that the linearized model agrees well with the nonlinear model under small perturbation. Based upon the Lyapunov's First Method, the linearized model is applied to the stability analysis of the Pressurized Water Reactor. The calculation results show that the methodology of linearization to stability analysis is conveniently feasible. (authors)
State stability analysis for the fermionic projector in the continuum
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoch, Stefan Ludwig
2008-07-01
The principle of the fermionic projector in the continuum gives an indication that there might be a deeper reason why elementary particles only appear with a few definite masses. In this thesis the existence of approximately state-stable configurations is shown. In order to achieve that, we make use of a variational principle for the fermionic projector in the continuum which contains certain contributions supported on the light cone. In a certain sense, these extra terms contain the structure of the underlying discrete spacetime. Lorentz invariant distributions and their convolutions are studied. Some of these are well-defined because the convolution integrals have compactly supported integrands. Other convolutions can be regularized such that the property of being ill-defined only plays a role on the light cone. These results are used to analyze the variational principle and to give criteria for state stability, which can be numerically analyzed. Some plots are presented to allow a decision about state stability and to show how possible configurations could look like. (orig.)
State stability analysis for the fermionic projector in the continuum
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoch, Stefan Ludwig
2008-01-01
The principle of the fermionic projector in the continuum gives an indication that there might be a deeper reason why elementary particles only appear with a few definite masses. In this thesis the existence of approximately state-stable configurations is shown. In order to achieve that, we make use of a variational principle for the fermionic projector in the continuum which contains certain contributions supported on the light cone. In a certain sense, these extra terms contain the structure of the underlying discrete spacetime. Lorentz invariant distributions and their convolutions are studied. Some of these are well-defined because the convolution integrals have compactly supported integrands. Other convolutions can be regularized such that the property of being ill-defined only plays a role on the light cone. These results are used to analyze the variational principle and to give criteria for state stability, which can be numerically analyzed. Some plots are presented to allow a decision about state stability and to show how possible configurations could look like. (orig.)
Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanhui Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.
System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.
1986-01-01
Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable
Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.
2014-01-01
This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)
Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing
Kerkhof, F.L.J.
2003-01-01
Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative
Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.
1991-01-01
The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value
Analysis of cavern stability at the Bryan Mound SPR site.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ehgartner, Brian L.; Sobolik, Steven Ronald
2009-04-01
This report presents computational analyses that simulate the structural response of caverns at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Bryan Mound site. The cavern field comprises 20 caverns. Five caverns (1, 2, 4, and 5; 3 was later plugged and abandoned) were acquired from industry and have unusual shapes and a history dating back to 1946. The other 16 caverns (101-116) were leached according to SPR standards in the mid-1980s and have tall cylindrical shapes. The history of the caverns and their shapes are simulated in a 3-D geomechanics model of the site that predicts deformations, strains, and stresses. Future leaching scenarios due to oil drawdowns using fresh water are also simulated by increasing the volume of the caverns. Cavern pressures are varied in the model to capture operational practices in the field. The results of the finite element model are interpreted to provide information on the current and future status of subsidence, well integrity, and cavern stability. The most significant result in this report is relevant to caverns 1, 2, and 5. The caverns have non-cylindrical shapes and have potential regions where the surrounding salt may be damaged during workover procedures. During a workover the normal cavern operating pressure is lowered to service a well. At this point the wellhead pressures are atmospheric. When the workover is complete, the cavern is repressurized. The resulting elastic stresses are sufficient to cause tension and large deviatoric stresses at several locations. With time, these stresses relax to a compressive state due to salt creep. However, the potential for salt damage and fracturing exists. The analyses predict tensile stresses at locations with sharp-edges in the wall geometry, or in the case of cavern 5, in the neck region between the upper and lower lobes of the cavern. The effects do not appear to be large-scale, however, so the only major impact is the potential for stress-induced salt falls in cavern 5, potentially leading to
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoguang Deng
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Based on the nonlinear stability analysis method, the 3D nonlinear finite element model of a composite girder cable-stayed bridge with three pylons is established to research the effect of factors including geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, static wind load, and unbalanced construction load on the structural stability during construction. Besides, the structural nonlinear stability in different construction schemes and the determination of temporary pier position are also studied. The nonlinear stability safety factors are calculated to demonstrate the rationality and safety of construction schemes. The results show that the nonlinear stability safety factors of this bridge during construction meet the design requirement and the minimum value occurs in the maximum double cantilever stage. Besides, the nonlinear stability of the structure in the side of edge-pylon meets the design requirement in the two construction schemes. Furthermore, the temporary pier can improve the structure stability, effectively, and the actual position is reasonable. In addition, the local buckling of steel girder occurs earlier than overall instability under load in some cable tension stages. Finally, static wind load and the unbalanced construction load should be considered in the stability analysis for the adverse impact.
Stress determination and geomechanical stability analysis of an oil ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
for indication of well instability risk is the Normalized Yielded Zone Area (NYZA), ..... Barton C A, Zoback M D and Burns K L 1988 In-situ stress orientation and ... Detournay C and Chen X 2005 Factors governing mud filtration and impact on ...
Risk management and analysis: risk assessment (qualitative and quantitative)
Valentin Mazareanu
2007-01-01
We use to define risk as the possibility of suffering a loss. Starting this, risk management is defined as a business process whose purpose is to ensure that the organization is protected against risks and their effects. In order to prioritize, to develop a response plan and after that to monitor the identified risks we need to asses them. But at this point a question is born: should I choose a qualitative approach or a quantitative one? This paper will make a short overview over the risk eva...
Electromagnetic analysis of the passive stabilizers for EAST
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Du Shijun; Wang Liheng; Liu Xufeng; Yao Damao
2006-01-01
The electromagnetic problems of the passive stabilizers for EAST are analyzed in this paper. The eddy currents in the passive plates induced by vertical plasma motion converge at the edge of the plates. The time constant of the passive plates is relied on the eddy currents distribution and can be determined by analyzing the natural decay characteristic of eddy currents. The mutual inductance between the passive plates and the plasma can be found by calculating the flux in the plasma ring from the eddy currents. The distribution of electromagnetic loads acting on the passive plates is not uniform. As the poloidal eddy currents gather at the vertical connection conductors, the large normal electromagnetic forces caused by the stronger toroidal field and the poloidal currents concentrate at some regions of the passive plates
Univariate and Bivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition for Postural Stability Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jacques Duchêne
2008-05-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to compare empirical mode decomposition (EMD and two new extended methods of Ã¢Â€Â‰EMD named complex empirical mode decomposition (complex-EMD and bivariate empirical mode decomposition (bivariate-EMD. All methods were used to analyze stabilogram center of pressure (COP time series. The two new methods are suitable to be applied to complex time series to extract complex intrinsic mode functions (IMFs before the Hilbert transform is subsequently applied on the IMFs. The trace of the analytic IMF in the complex plane has a circular form, with each IMF having its own rotation frequency. The area of the circle and the average rotation frequency of IMFs represent efficient indicators of the postural stability status of subjects. Experimental results show the effectiveness of these indicators to identify differences in standing posture between groups.
Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindström, Erik; Madsen, Henrik; Norén, Vicke
2015-01-01
Integration of fluctuating renewables like wind and solar power is nowadays a hot topic, but this comes at a cost of decreased stability of the power system. The deterioration often translates into so-called spikes and drops in the electricity spot price, very large (even extreme) deviations from...... the regular spot price, followed by a reversion to roughly the original level a few days later. We use the spikes and drops as an strong indication that there is an imbalance in the physical power system in this paper. Independent Spike Models (ISM) is a popular class of models for the electricity spot price...... into the power system or conversely the effects when smoothing consumption using strategies that can be implemented in smart grids. We use this tool to obtain a direct measure of how much the spike and drop intensity can be reduced by smoothing the consumption and see that even a small increase...
RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ES Obe
aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.
Information, Privacy and Stability in Adaptive Data Analysis
Smith, Adam
2017-01-01
Traditional statistical theory assumes that the analysis to be performed on a given data set is selected independently of the data themselves. This assumption breaks downs when data are re-used across analyses and the analysis to be performed at a given stage depends on the results of earlier stages. Such dependency can arise when the same data are used by several scientific studies, or when a single analysis consists of multiple stages. How can we draw statistically valid conclusions when da...
Wu, Bing-Fei; Ma, Li-Shan; Perng, Jau-Woei
This study analyzes the absolute stability in P and PD type fuzzy logic control systems with both certain and uncertain linear plants. Stability analysis includes the reference input, actuator gain and interval plant parameters. For certain linear plants, the stability (i.e. the stable equilibriums of error) in P and PD types is analyzed with the Popov or linearization methods under various reference inputs and actuator gains. The steady state errors of fuzzy control systems are also addressed in the parameter plane. The parametric robust Popov criterion for parametric absolute stability based on Lur'e systems is also applied to the stability analysis of P type fuzzy control systems with uncertain plants. The PD type fuzzy logic controller in our approach is a single-input fuzzy logic controller and is transformed into the P type for analysis. In our work, the absolute stability analysis of fuzzy control systems is given with respect to a non-zero reference input and an uncertain linear plant with the parametric robust Popov criterion unlike previous works. Moreover, a fuzzy current controlled RC circuit is designed with PSPICE models. Both numerical and PSPICE simulations are provided to verify the analytical results. Furthermore, the oscillation mechanism in fuzzy control systems is specified with various equilibrium points of view in the simulation example. Finally, the comparisons are also given to show the effectiveness of the analysis method.
Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B
2013-06-21
Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Analysis and risk management after Fukushima
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nelson, P. F.
2011-11-01
This article describes the impact in the nuclear industry after the only accidents with affectation to the public: the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. and discusses what comes after Fukushima with regard to the Safety Probabilistic Analysis (Spa) and their use in the decisions taking. A reference to the standard ASME/ANS of Spa is made and the possible changes due to the learned lessons after the Fukushima accident. The main changes are described in the art state and the priorities of the Spa studies. These include the change in the mission time of the emergency systems, the necessity to model the alternating systems, the risk consideration of a site with multi-units, the importance of making a Spa level 3 and the Spa of external events. The Spa is the key tool of the discipline of risk management, but given the learned lessons, is more necessary in all the aspects of the operation and surveillance of a nuclear power plant. A strategy is presented to improve the response to a severe accident, that includes consider the risks of the specific nuclear power plant. (Author)
Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nadia Ursino
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.
Cortes, Nelson; Porter, Larissa D; Ambegaonkar, Jatin P; Caswell, Shane V
2014-12-01
Dancers have a lower incidence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury compared to athletes in sports that involve cutting and landing motions. Balance can impact ACL injury risk and is related to neuromuscular control during movement. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether balance differences exist among female dancers and female soccer and basketball athletes. Fifty-eight female dancers, soccer, and basketball athletes (16.5 ± 1.6 yrs, 1.6 ± 0.2 m, 60.2 ± 14.1 kg) completed the Stability Evaluation Test (SET) on the NeuroCom VSR Sport (NeuroCom International, Clackamas, OR) to measure sway velocity. Video records of the SET test were used for Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) test scoring. A oneway ANCOVA compared composite sway velocity and BESS scores among sports. There was no statistically significant difference for sway velocity or BESS among sports (sway velocity soccer 2.3 ± 0.4, dance 2.2 ± 0.4, and basketball 2.4 ± 0.4; BESS soccer 13.6 ± 5.0, dance 11.9 ± 5.5, and basketball 14.9 ± 5.1, p>0.05). Balance was similar among athletes participating in different sports (dance, basketball, and soccer). Quasi-static balance may not play a significant role in neuromuscular control during movement and not be a significant risk factor to explain the disparity in ACL injury incidence among sports. Future research should examine the effects of dynamic balance and limb asymmetries among sports to elucidate on the existing differences on ACL injury incidence rates.
Stability Analysis Method for Rock Slope with an Irregular Shear Plane Based on Interface Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Changqing Qi
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Landslide developed in rock mass usually has irregular shear plane. An approach for calculating distributed factor of safety of the irregular shear plane was put forward in this paper. The presented method can obtain not only the detailed stability status at any grid node of a complex shear plane but also the global safety of the slope. Thus, it is helpful to thoroughly understand the mechanism of slope failure. Comparing with the result obtained through the limit equilibrium method, the presented method was proved to be more accurate and suitable for stability analysis of rock slope with a thin shear plane. The stability of a potentially unstable rock slope was analyzed based on the presented method at the end of this paper. The detailed local stability, global stability, and the potential failure mechanism were provided.
Analysis of cavern stability at the West Hackberry SPR site.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ehgartner, Brian L.; Sobolik, Steven Ronald
2009-05-01
This report presents computational analyses that simulate the structural response of caverns at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) West Hackberry site. The cavern field comprises 22 caverns. Five caverns (6, 7, 8, 9, 11) were acquired from industry and have unusual shapes and a history dating back to 1946. The other 17 caverns (101-117) were leached according to SPR standards in the mid-1980s and have tall cylindrical shapes. The history of the caverns and their shapes are simulated in a three-dimensional geomechanics model of the site that predicts deformations, strains, and stresses. Future leaching scenarios corresponding to oil drawdowns using fresh water are also simulated by increasing the volume of the caverns. Cavern pressures are varied in the model to capture operational practices in the field. The results of the finite element model are interpreted to provide information on the current and future status of subsidence, well integrity, and cavern stability. The most significant results in this report are relevant to Cavern 6. The cavern is shaped like a bowl with a large ceiling span and is in close proximity to Cavern 9. The analyses predict tensile stresses at the edge of the ceiling during repressuization of Cavern 6 following workover conditions. During a workover the cavern is at low pressure to service a well. The wellhead pressures are atmospheric. When the workover is complete, the cavern is repressurized. The resulting elastic stresses are sufficient to cause tension around the edge of the large ceiling span. With time, these stresses relax to a compressive state because of salt creep. However, the potential for salt fracture and propagation exists, particularly towards Cavern 9. With only 200 ft of salt between the caverns, the operational consequences must be examined if the two caverns become connected. A critical time may be during a workover of Cavern 9 in part because of the operational vulnerabilities, but also because dilatant damage is
The beauty of simple adaptive control and new developments in nonlinear systems stability analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barkana, Itzhak, E-mail: ibarkana@gmail.com [BARKANA Consulting, Ramat Hasharon (Israel)
2014-12-10
Although various adaptive control techniques have been around for a long time and in spite of successful proofs of stability and even successful demonstrations of performance, the eventual use of adaptive control methodologies in practical real world systems has met a rather strong resistance from practitioners and has remained limited. Apparently, it is difficult to guarantee or even understand the conditions that can guarantee stable operations of adaptive control systems under realistic operational environments. Besides, it is difficult to measure the robustness of adaptive control system stability and allow it to be compared with the common and widely used measure of phase margin and gain margin that is utilized by present, mainly LTI, controllers. Furthermore, customary stability analysis methods seem to imply that the mere stability of adaptive systems may be adversely affected by any tiny deviation from the pretty idealistic and assumably required stability conditions. This paper first revisits the fundamental qualities of customary direct adaptive control methodologies, in particular the classical Model Reference Adaptive Control, and shows that some of their basic drawbacks have been addressed and eliminated within the so-called Simple Adaptive Control methodology. Moreover, recent developments in the stability analysis methods of nonlinear systems show that prior conditions that were customarily assumed to be needed for stability are only apparent and can be eliminated. As a result, sufficient conditions that guarantee stability are clearly stated and lead to similarly clear proofs of stability. As many real-world applications show, once robust stability of the adaptive systems can be guaranteed, the added value of using Add-On Adaptive Control along with classical Control design techniques is pushing the desired performance beyond any previous limits.
Stability analysis for single-phase liquid metal rectangular natural circulation loops
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu, Daogang; Zhang, Xun; Guo, Chao
2014-01-01
Highlights: • The stability for asymmetric liquid metal natural circulation loops is analyzed. • The Na and NaK loops have higher critical Reynolds number than Pb and LBE loops. • Decreasing the ratio of height to width of loop can increase loop stability. • The length of heater would not affect the loop stability obviously. • Adding the length or heat transfer coefficient of cooler can increase loop stability. - Abstract: Natural circulation systems are preferred in some advanced nuclear power plants as they can simplify the designs and improve the inherent safety. The stability and steady-state characteristics of natural circulation are important for the applications of natural circulation loops (NCLs). A linear stability analysis method was used to study the stability behavior of liquid metal NCLs. The influences of the types of working fluids and loop geometry parameters on the stability of NCLs were evaluated. The liquid sodium (Na) loop and sodium–potassium alloy (NaK) loop would be more stable than lead bismuth eutectics (LBE) loop. The pressure drop could stabilize the loop behavior and also lead an increase of operating temperature for the loop. The NCL with a lower aspect ratio (ratio of vertical center distance between the heating and cooling section to the horizontal length of loop) is supposed to be more stable. It was found that the length of heating section would not have an obvious effect on the stability of NCL. However, the loop behavior could be stabilized by adding the length or heat transfer coefficient of the cooling section
Probabilistic methods in fire-risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandyberry, M.D.
1989-01-01
The first part of this work outlines a method for assessing the frequency of ignition of a consumer product in a building and shows how the method would be used in an example scenario utilizing upholstered furniture as the product and radiant auxiliary heating devices (electric heaters, wood stoves) as the ignition source. Deterministic thermal models of the heat-transport processes are coupled with parameter uncertainty analysis of the models and with a probabilistic analysis of the events involved in a typical scenario. This leads to a distribution for the frequency of ignition for the product. In second part, fire-risk analysis as currently used in nuclear plants is outlines along with a discussion of the relevant uncertainties. The use of the computer code COMPBRN is discussed for use in the fire-growth analysis along with the use of response-surface methodology to quantify uncertainties in the code's use. Generalized response surfaces are developed for temperature versus time for a cable tray, as well as a surface for the hot gas layer temperature and depth for a room of arbitrary geometry within a typical nuclear power plant compartment. These surfaces are then used to simulate the cable tray damage time in a compartment fire experiment
Stability analysis of multiple-robot control systems
Wen, John T.; Kreutz, Kenneth
1989-01-01
In a space telerobotic service scenario, cooperative motion and force control of multiple robot arms are of fundamental importance. Three paradigms to study this problem are proposed. They are distinguished by the set of variables used for control design. They are joint torques, arm tip force vectors, and an accelerated generalized coordinate set. Control issues related to each case are discussed. The latter two choices require complete model information, which presents practical modeling, computational, and robustness problems. Therefore, focus is on the joint torque control case to develop relatively model independent motion and internal force control laws. The rigid body assumption allows the motion and force control problems to be independently addressed. By using an energy motivated Lyapunov function, a simple proportional derivative plus gravity compensation type of motion control law is always shown to be stabilizing. The asymptotic convergence of the tracing error to zero requires the use of a generalized coordinate with the contact constraints taken into account. If a non-generalized coordinate is used, only convergence to a steady state manifold can be concluded. For the force control, both feedforward and feedback schemes are analyzed. The feedback control, if proper care has been taken, exhibits better robustness and transient performance.
Atmospheric stability analysis over statically and dynamically rough surfaces
Maric, Emina; Metzger, Meredith; Singha, Arindam; Sadr, Reza
2011-11-01
The ratio of buoyancy flux to turbulent kinetic energy production in the atmospheric surface layer is investigated experimentally for air flow over two types of surfaces characterized by static and dynamic roughness. In this study, ``static'' refers to the time-invariant nature of naturally-occurring roughness over a mud/salt playa; while, ``dynamic'' refers to the behavior of water waves along an air-water interface. In both cases, time-resolved measurements of the momentum and heat fluxes were acquired from synchronized 3D sonic anemometers mounted on a vertical tower. Field campaigns were conducted at two sites, representing the ``statically'' and ``dynamically'' rough surfaces, respectively: (1) the SLTEST facility in Utah's western desert, and (2) the new Doha airport in Qatar under construction along the coast of the Persian Gulf. Note, at site 2, anemometers were located directly above the water by extension from a tower secured to the end of a 1 km-long pier. Comparisons of the Monin-Obukhov length, flux Richardson number, and gradient Richardson number are presented, and discussed in the context of the observed evolution of the turbulent spectra in response to diurnal variations of atmospheric stability. Supported by the Qatar National Research Fund.
Investigations of blood ammonia analysis: Test matrices, storage, and stability.
Goldstein, Brittany N; Wesler, Jordan; Nowacki, Amy S; Reineks, Edmunds; Natowicz, Marvin R
2017-06-01
An assessment of blood ammonia concentration is common medical practice in the evaluation of an individual with an unexplained mental status change or coma. The determination of a blood ammonia level is most commonly done using a glutamate dehydrogenase (GLDH)-based assay, although there are many potential sources of artifact and the literature is inconsistent regarding key preanalytic issues. Using a GLDH-based assay, we first investigated matrix effects using three anticoagulants: heparin, EDTA and oxalate. Heparin-anticoagulated plasma was substantially less precise than EDTA- and oxalate-anticoagulated plasma. Oxalate-anticoagulated plasma showed a greater baseline of apparent ammonia than either heparin- or EDTA-derived plasma, presumably due to interferants. We then evaluated the stability of EDTA-anticoagulated plasma for assessment of ammonia when stored at 4°C,-14°C or -70°C. There was a linear increase of ammonia with storage at both 4°C and -14°C. Plasma kept at -70°C for up to three weeks showed no change in measured ammonia relative to the baseline determination. This work clarifies preanalytic conditions for which a precise determination of ammonia can be accomplished using a GLDH-based assay. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Heat transfer modelling and stability analysis of selective laser melting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gusarov, A.V.; Yadroitsev, I.; Bertrand, Ph.; Smurov, I.
2007-01-01
The process of direct manufacturing by selective laser melting basically consists of laser beam scanning over a thin powder layer deposited on a dense substrate. Complete remelting of the powder in the scanned zone and its good adhesion to the substrate ensure obtaining functional parts with improved mechanical properties. Experiments with single-line scanning indicate, that an interval of scanning velocities exists where the remelted tracks are uniform. The tracks become broken if the scanning velocity is outside this interval. This is extremely undesirable and referred to as the 'balling' effect. A numerical model of coupled radiation and heat transfer is proposed to analyse the observed instability. The 'balling' effect at high scanning velocities (above ∼20 cm/s for the present conditions) can be explained by the Plateau-Rayleigh capillary instability of the melt pool. Two factors stabilize the process with decreasing the scanning velocity: reducing the length-to-width ratio of the melt pool and increasing the width of its contact with the substrate
Saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of slope subjected to rainfall infiltration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gofar Nurly
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents results of saturated and unsaturated stability analysis of typical residual slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration corresponds to 50 years rainfall return period. The slope angles considered were 45° and 70°. The saturated stability analyses were carried out for original and critical ground water level commonly considered by practicing engineer. The analyses were conducted using limit equilibrium method. Unsaturated stability analyses used combination of coupled stress–pore-water pressure analysis to evaluate the effect of rainfall infiltration on the deformation and transient pore-water pressure on slope stability. Slope stability analyses were performed at some times during and after rainfall infiltration. Results show that the critical condition for slope made by sandy material was at the end of rainfall while for clayey material was at some specified times after the rainfall ceased. Unsaturated stability analysis on sandy soil gives higher factor of safety because the soil never reached saturation. Transient analysis using unsaturated soil concept could predict more critical condition of delayed failure of slopes made up of clayey soil.
Floquet stability analysis of the longitudinal dynamics of two hovering model insects
Wu, Jiang Hao; Sun, Mao
2012-01-01
Because of the periodically varying aerodynamic and inertial forces of the flapping wings, a hovering or constant-speed flying insect is a cyclically forcing system, and, generally, the flight is not in a fixed-point equilibrium, but in a cyclic-motion equilibrium. Current stability theory of insect flight is based on the averaged model and treats the flight as a fixed-point equilibrium. In the present study, we treated the flight as a cyclic-motion equilibrium and used the Floquet theory to analyse the longitudinal stability of insect flight. Two hovering model insects were considered—a dronefly and a hawkmoth. The former had relatively high wingbeat frequency and small wing-mass to body-mass ratio, and hence very small amplitude of body oscillation; while the latter had relatively low wingbeat frequency and large wing-mass to body-mass ratio, and hence relatively large amplitude of body oscillation. For comparison, analysis using the averaged-model theory (fixed-point stability analysis) was also made. Results of both the cyclic-motion stability analysis and the fixed-point stability analysis were tested by numerical simulation using complete equations of motion coupled with the Navier–Stokes equations. The Floquet theory (cyclic-motion stability analysis) agreed well with the simulation for both the model dronefly and the model hawkmoth; but the averaged-model theory gave good results only for the dronefly. Thus, for an insect with relatively large body oscillation at wingbeat frequency, cyclic-motion stability analysis is required, and for their control analysis, the existing well-developed control theories for systems of fixed-point equilibrium are no longer applicable and new methods that take the cyclic variation of the flight dynamics into account are needed. PMID:22491980
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pandey, Vikas; Singh, Suneet, E-mail: suneet.singh@iitb.ac.in
2017-04-15
Highlights: • Non-linear stability analysis of nuclear reactor is carried out. • Global and local stability boundaries are drawn in the parameter space. • Globally stable, bi-stable, and unstable regions have been demarcated. • The identification of the regions is verified by numerical simulations. - Abstract: Nonlinear stability study of the neutron coupled thermal hydraulics instability has been carried out by several researchers for boiling water reactors (BWRs). The focus of these studies has been to identify subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. Supercritical Hopf bifurcation are soft or safe due to the fact that stable limit cycles arise in linearly unstable region; linear and global stability boundaries are same for this bifurcation. It is well known that the subcritical bifurcations can be considered as hard or dangerous due to the fact that unstable limit cycles (nonlinear phenomena) exist in the (linearly) stable region. The linear stability leads to a stable equilibrium in such regions, only for infinitesimally small perturbations. However, finite perturbations lead to instability due to the presence of unstable limit cycles. Therefore, it is evident that the linear stability analysis is not sufficient to understand the exact stability characteristics of BWRs. However, the effect of these bifurcations on the stability boundaries has been rarely discussed. In the present work, the identification of global stability boundary is demonstrated using simplified models. Here, five different models with different thermal hydraulics feedback have been investigated. In comparison to the earlier works, current models also include the impact of adding the rate of change in temperature on void reactivity as well as effect of void reactivity on rate of change of temperature. Using the bifurcation analysis of these models the globally stable region in the parameter space has been identified. The globally stable region has only stable solutions and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pandey, Vikas; Singh, Suneet
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Non-linear stability analysis of nuclear reactor is carried out. • Global and local stability boundaries are drawn in the parameter space. • Globally stable, bi-stable, and unstable regions have been demarcated. • The identification of the regions is verified by numerical simulations. - Abstract: Nonlinear stability study of the neutron coupled thermal hydraulics instability has been carried out by several researchers for boiling water reactors (BWRs). The focus of these studies has been to identify subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations. Supercritical Hopf bifurcation are soft or safe due to the fact that stable limit cycles arise in linearly unstable region; linear and global stability boundaries are same for this bifurcation. It is well known that the subcritical bifurcations can be considered as hard or dangerous due to the fact that unstable limit cycles (nonlinear phenomena) exist in the (linearly) stable region. The linear stability leads to a stable equilibrium in such regions, only for infinitesimally small perturbations. However, finite perturbations lead to instability due to the presence of unstable limit cycles. Therefore, it is evident that the linear stability analysis is not sufficient to understand the exact stability characteristics of BWRs. However, the effect of these bifurcations on the stability boundaries has been rarely discussed. In the present work, the identification of global stability boundary is demonstrated using simplified models. Here, five different models with different thermal hydraulics feedback have been investigated. In comparison to the earlier works, current models also include the impact of adding the rate of change in temperature on void reactivity as well as effect of void reactivity on rate of change of temperature. Using the bifurcation analysis of these models the globally stable region in the parameter space has been identified. The globally stable region has only stable solutions and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Merdan, H.; Duman, O.
2009-01-01
This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a general discrete-time population dynamics involving predation with and without Allee effects which occur at low population density. The mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that the Allee effect has a stabilizing role on the local stability of the positive equilibrium points of this model.
Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.
Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G
2004-04-01
Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.
Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code (LASTRAC) Version 1.2 User Manual
Chang, Chau-Lyan
2004-01-01
LASTRAC is a general-purposed, physics-based transition prediction code released by NASA for Laminar Flow Control studies and transition research. The design and development of the LASTRAC code is aimed at providing an engineering tool that is easy to use and yet capable of dealing with a broad range of transition related issues. It was written from scratch based on the state-of-the-art numerical methods for stability analysis and modern software technologies. At low fidelity, it allows users to perform linear stability analysis and N-factor transition correlation for a broad range of flow regimes and configurations by using either the linear stability theory or linear parabolized stability equations method. At high fidelity, users may use nonlinear PSE to track finite-amplitude disturbances until the skin friction rise. This document describes the governing equations, numerical methods, code development, detailed description of input/output parameters, and case studies for the current release of LASTRAC.
Pereira, Vanessa Vieira; Maia, Roberto Alcantara; Silva, Sonia Maria Cesar de Azevedo
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study was to verify which instrument better identifies recurrent falls in the elderly. Ninety-eight old people, with an average age of 80 ± 4 years, were submitted to an assessment of balance and fall risk by means of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the posturographic Balance Stability System (BSS). The BBS was correlated with the BSS (r=-0.27; p=0.008), age (r=-0.38; pfalls (r=-0.25; p=0.013) and the analysis of logistical regression showed that the elderly classified with fall risk on the BBS presented 2.5 (95%CI 1.08-5.78) more chance of identifying who had two falls or more over the last year. The BBS identified that the greater the age the worse the functional balance and demonstrated a greater capacity to identify falls risk suffered over the last year when compared with the BSS.
Stability and bifurcation analysis of a generalized scalar delay differential equation.
Bhalekar, Sachin
2016-08-01
This paper deals with the stability and bifurcation analysis of a general form of equation D(α)x(t)=g(x(t),x(t-τ)) involving the derivative of order α ∈ (0, 1] and a constant delay τ ≥ 0. The stability of equilibrium points is presented in terms of the stability regions and critical surfaces. We provide a necessary condition to exist chaos in the system also. A wide range of delay differential equations involving a constant delay can be analyzed using the results proposed in this paper. The illustrative examples are provided to explain the theory.
Integral equation based stability analysis of short wavelength drift modes in tokamaks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirose, A.; Elia, M.
2003-01-01
Linear stability of electron skin-size drift modes in collisionless tokamak discharges has been investigated in terms of electromagnetic, kinetic integral equations in which neither ions nor electrons are assumed to be adiabatic. A slab-like ion temperature gradient mode persists in such a short wavelength regime. However, toroidicity has a strong stabilizing influence on this mode. In the electron branch, the toroidicity induced skin-size drift mode previously predicted in terms of local kinetic analysis has been recovered. The mode is driven by positive magnetic shear and strongly stabilized for negative shear. The corresponding mixing length anomalous thermal diffusivity exhibits favourable isotope dependence. (author)
Robust Stability Clearance of Flight Control Law Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis
Ou, Liuli; Liu, Lei; Dong, Shuai; Wang, Yongji
2014-01-01
To validate the robust stability of the flight control system of hypersonic flight vehicle, which suffers from a large number of parametrical uncertainties, a new clearance framework based on structural singular value ( $\\mu $ ) theory and global uncertainty sensitivity analysis (SA) is proposed. In this framework, SA serves as the preprocess of uncertain model to be analysed to help engineers to determine which uncertainties affect the stability of the closed loop system more slightly. By ig...
Detecting long-range correlation with detrended fluctuation analysis: Application to BWR stability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Espinosa-Paredes, Gilberto [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico, DF 09340 (Mexico)]. E-mail: gepe@xanum.uam.mx; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico, DF 09340 (Mexico); Vazquez, Alejandro [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico, DF 09340 (Mexico)
2006-11-15
The aim of this paper is to explore the application of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study boiling water reactor stability. DFA is a scaling method commonly used for detecting long-range correlations in non-stationary time series. This method is based on the random walk theory and was applied to neutronic power signal of Forsmark stability benchmark. Our results shows that the scaling properties breakdown during unstable oscillations.
ANALYSIS OF PERTURBED MOTION STABILITY OF WHEELER VEHICLES BRAKES CONTROL SYSTEM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. Verbytskiyi
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The analysis of the perturbed motion stability of the brake automatic control system on the basis of Lyapunov’s second method is carried out. Using transformations of Lurie there has been ob-tained the canonical form of the system of equations of automatic control. It allowed determining the necessary and sufficient conditions of the asymptotic stability of the system irrespective of its initial condition and a definite choice of the admissible characteristic of the regulator.
Including the influence of waves in the overall slope stability analysis of rubble mound breakwaters
Mollaert, J.; Tavallali, A.
2016-01-01
An offshore breakwater is designed for the construction of a LNG-terminal. For the slope stability analysis of the rubble mound breakwater the existing and the extreme wave climate are considered. Pore water pressure variations exist in the breakwater and its permeable foundation. A wave trough combined with the moment of maximum wave run-up results in a decrease and increase of the pore water pressure, respectively. Therefore, the wave actions have on overall effect on the slope stability of...
The Stability of IQ in People with Low Intellectual Ability: An Analysis of the Literature
Whitaker, Simon
2008-01-01
A meta-analysis of the stability of low IQ (IQ less than 80) was performed on IQ tests that have been commonly used--tests that were derived by D. Wechsler (1949, 1955, 1974, 1981, 1991, 1997) and those based on the Binet scales (L. M. Terman, 1960; L. M. Terman & Merrill, 1972). Weighted-mean stability coefficients of 0.77 and 0.78 were found…
Detecting long-range correlation with detrended fluctuation analysis: Application to BWR stability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Espinosa-Paredes, Gilberto; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Vazquez, Alejandro
2006-01-01
The aim of this paper is to explore the application of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study boiling water reactor stability. DFA is a scaling method commonly used for detecting long-range correlations in non-stationary time series. This method is based on the random walk theory and was applied to neutronic power signal of Forsmark stability benchmark. Our results shows that the scaling properties breakdown during unstable oscillations
2016-03-01
AND MISSION ANALYSIS FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION by Halis C. Polat March 2016...FOR A SMALL SATELLITE EXPLOITING ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCES FOR ATTITUDE STABILIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Halis C. Polat 7...need a robust and accurate attitude control system. Due to the mass- and volume-constrained design environment of CubeSat, conventional methods are
Integrated analysis software for bulk power system stability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tanaka, T; Nagao, T; Takahashi, K [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)
1994-12-31
This paper presents Central Research Inst.of Electric Power Industry - CRIEPI`s - own developed three softwares for bulk power network analysis and the user support system which arranges tremendous data necessary for these softwares with easy and high reliability. (author) 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.
Stress determination and geomechanical stability analysis of an oil ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Practical data including geomechanical parameters along with drilling data from one of Iranian oilfields, Mansouri-54 well have been utilized in this analysis. in situ stress was determined using stress polygon method and conducting hydraulic fracturing data in the field. Analytical solution using the Mogi–Coulomb and the ...
Analysis of Deformation Characteristics and Stability Mechanisms of ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
21
analysis of landslide mass under the similar engineering geological ... The bedrock mainly consists of the green-gray marlite of the thin layer, the interbedded dolomitic limestone and the purple-red mudstone of the Badong Formation from the ...
Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.
Hoffmann, Sandra
2011-09-01
Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
A simplified approach for slope stability analysis of uncontrolled waste dumps.
Turer, Dilek; Turer, Ahmet
2011-02-01
Slope stability analysis of municipal solid waste has always been problematic because of the heterogeneous nature of the waste materials. The requirement for large testing equipment in order to obtain representative samples has identified the need for simplified approaches to obtain the unit weight and shear strength parameters of the waste. In the present study, two of the most recently published approaches for determining the unit weight and shear strength parameters of the waste have been incorporated into a slope stability analysis using the Bishop method to prepare slope stability charts. The slope stability charts were prepared for uncontrolled waste dumps having no liner and leachate collection systems with pore pressure ratios of 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5, considering the most critical slip surface passing through the toe of the slope. As the proposed slope stability charts were prepared by considering the change in unit weight as a function of height, they reflect field conditions better than accepting a constant unit weight approach in the stability analysis. They also streamline the selection of slope or height as a function of the desired factor of safety.
Liu, Yong; Qin, Zhimeng; Hu, Baodan; Feng, Shuai
2018-04-01
Stability analysis is of great significance to landslide hazard prevention, especially the dynamic stability. However, many existing stability analysis methods are difficult to analyse the continuous landslide stability and its changing regularities in a uniform criterion due to the unique landslide geological conditions. Based on the relationship between displacement monitoring data, deformation states and landslide stability, a state fusion entropy method is herein proposed to derive landslide instability through a comprehensive multi-attribute entropy analysis of deformation states, which are defined by a proposed joint clustering method combining K-means and a cloud model. Taking Xintan landslide as the detailed case study, cumulative state fusion entropy presents an obvious increasing trend after the landslide entered accelerative deformation stage and historical maxima match highly with landslide macroscopic deformation behaviours in key time nodes. Reasonable results are also obtained in its application to several other landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Combined with field survey, state fusion entropy may serve for assessing landslide stability and judging landslide evolutionary stages.
Two-Year Trajectory of Fall Risk in People With Parkinson Disease: A Latent Class Analysis.
Paul, Serene S; Thackeray, Anne; Duncan, Ryan P; Cavanaugh, James T; Ellis, Theresa D; Earhart, Gammon M; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Dibble, Leland E
2016-03-01
To examine fall risk trajectories occurring naturally in a sample of individuals with early to middle stage Parkinson disease (PD). Latent class analysis, specifically growth mixture modeling (GMM), of longitudinal fall risk trajectories. Assessments were conducted at 1 of 4 universities. Community-dwelling participants with PD of a longitudinal cohort study who attended at least 2 of 5 assessments over a 2-year follow-up period (N=230). Not applicable. Fall risk trajectory (low, medium, or high risk) and stability of fall risk trajectory (stable or fluctuating). Fall risk was determined at 6 monthly intervals using a simple clinical tool based on fall history, freezing of gait, and gait speed. The GMM optimally grouped participants into 3 fall risk trajectories that closely mirrored baseline fall risk status (P=.001). The high fall risk trajectory was most common (42.6%) and included participants with longer and more severe disease and with higher postural instability and gait disability (PIGD) scores than the low and medium fall risk trajectories (Pfall risk (posterior probability fall risk trajectories over 2 years. Further investigation is required to determine whether interventions to improve gait and balance may improve fall risk trajectories in people with PD. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Analysis of water cooled reactors stability; Analiza stabilnosti reaktorskih sistema hladjenih vodom
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marinkovic, P; Pesic, M [Boris Kidric Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)
1980-07-01
A model for stability analysis of non-boiling water cooled nuclear system is developed. The model is based on linear reactor kinetics and space averaged heat transfer in reactor and heat-exchanger. The transfer functions are defined and the analysis was applied to nuclear reactor RA at 'Boris Kidric' Institute - Vinca. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kwon, Jun Bum; Wang, Xiongfei; Bak, Claus Leth
2015-01-01
As the increasing of power electronics based systems, not only the component-based analysis but also a systematic interaction analysis with each other systems are being important. Especially studies about the stability and the harmonics interaction are critical in order to establish the required ...
The safety analysis of realization of the stabilization of beams B1/B2 supports project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aleshin, A.M.; Batij, V.G.; Glukhen'kij, V.N.; Kozoriz, V.I.; Klyuchnikov, A.A.; Kochnev, N.A.; Pavlovskij, L.I.; Rubezhanskij, Yu.I.; Sidorenko, N.V.; Stoyanov, A.I.; Shcherbin, V.N.
2000-01-01
The results of the analysis of radiation safety executed at preparing for realization of the stabilization of beams B1/B2 support are given. The comparison of results of the preliminary analysis of safety with the data received during realization of works is carried out
Economic analysis and management of climatic risks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))
1994-01-01
This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.
Risk oriented analysis of the SNR-300
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koeberlein, K.
1982-01-01
The Fact Finding Committee on 'Future Nuclear Power Policy' established by the 8th German Federal Parliament in its report of June 1980 among other items published the recommendation to commission a 'risk oriented analysis' of the SNR-300 in order to enable a pragmatic comparison to be made of the safety of the German prototype fast breeder reactor and a modern light water reactor (a Biblis B PWR). The Federal Minister for Research and Technology in August 1981 officially commissioned the Gesellschaft fuer Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) to conduct the study. Following a recommendation by the Fact Finding Committee, additional studies were performed also by a group of opponents of the breeder reactor. On the instigation of the group of opponents the delivery date of the study was altered several times and finally set at April 30, 1982. GRS submitted its report by this deadline. However, a joint report by the two groups could not be compiled, as had been requested by the client, because the contributions of the opponents were not made available until mid-May 1982 and then only as an 'interim report'. In summary, the GRS study indicates that the frequency and severity of major accidents is lower for the SNR-300 at the Kalkar site than for a PWR as covered in the German Nuclear Power Plant Risk Study. (orig.) [de
Development of probabilistic risk analysis library
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soga, Shota; Kirimoto, Yukihiro; Kanda, Kenichi
2015-01-01
We developed a library that is designed to perform level 1 Probabilistic Risk Analysis using Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). In particular, our goal is to develop a library that will allow Japanese electric utilities to take the advantages of BDD that can solve Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) models analytically. Using BDD, the library supports negation in FT which allows more flexible modeling of ET/FT. The library is written by C++ within an object-oriented framework using open source software. The library itself is a header-only library so that Japanese electric utilities can take advantages of its transparency to speed up development and to build their own software for their specific needs. In this report, the basic capabilities of the library is briefly described. In addition, several applications of the library are demonstrated including validation of MCS evaluation of PRA model and evaluation of corrective and preventive maintenance considering common cause failure. (author)
Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.
2005-01-01
Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)
Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dana Corina Deselnicu
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.
ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT RISK IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Lăpăduşi Mihaela Loredana,; Căruntu Constantin
2009-01-01
The risk is one of the most controversial issues for all persons involved both in domestic and international world economic affairs. The need to analyze, understand and effectively manage risk is growing, the ultimate aim being to obtain a higher degree of successThe risk means exposure to an uncertain future, the opportunity to face danger or suffering a loss ( "Risk - possibility of loss or injury", Webster's, 1995) or the chance that things go wrong ( "Risk is the change that something wil...
Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis
Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik
2015-01-01
This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...
HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
EVANS, C B
2004-12-21
The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.
Vertullo, Christopher J; Lewis, Peter L; Lorimer, Michelle; Graves, Stephen E
2017-07-05
Controversy still exists as to the optimum management of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) in total knee arthroplasty. Surgeons can choose to kinematically substitute the PCL with a posterior-stabilized total knee replacement or alternatively to utilize a cruciate-retaining, also known as minimally stabilized, total knee replacement. Proponents of posterior-stabilized total knee replacement propose that the reported lower survivorship in registries when directly compared with minimally stabilized total knee replacement is due to confounders such as selection bias because of the preferential usage of posterior-stabilized total knee replacement in more complex or severe cases. In this study, we aimed to eliminate these possible confounders by performing an instrumental variable analysis based on surgeon preference to choose either posterior-stabilized or minimally stabilized total knee replacement, rather than the actual prosthesis received. Cumulative percent revision, hazard ratio (HR), and revision diagnosis data were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry from September 1, 1999, to December 31, 2014, for 2 cohorts of patients, those treated by high-volume surgeons who preferred minimally stabilized replacements and those treated by high-volume surgeons who preferred posterior-stabilized replacements. All patients had a diagnosis of osteoarthritis and underwent fixed-bearing total knee replacement with patellar resurfacing. At 13 years, the cumulative percent revision was 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0% to 6.2%) for the surgeons who preferred the minimally stabilized replacements compared with 6.0% (95% CI, 4.2% to 8.5%) for the surgeons who preferred the posterior-stabilized replacements. The revision risk for the surgeons who preferred posterior-stabilized replacements was significantly higher for all causes (HR = 1.45 [95% CI, 1.30 to 1.63]; p total knee replacement compared with the patients of
Stability of alcohol use and teen dating violence for female youth: A latent transition analysis.
Choi, Hye Jeong; Elmquist, JoAnna; Shorey, Ryan C; Rothman, Emily F; Stuart, Gregory L; Temple, Jeff R
2017-01-01
Alcohol use is one of the most widely accepted and studied risk factors for teen dating violence (TDV). Too little research has explored longitudinally if it is true that an adolescent's alcohol use and TDV involvement simultaneously occur. In the current study, we examined whether there were latent status based on past-year TDV and alcohol use and whether female adolescents changed their statuses of TDV and alcohol use over time. The sample consisted of 583 female youths in seven public high schools in Texas. Three waves of longitudinal data collected from 2011 to 2013 were utilised in this study. Participants completed self-report assessments of alcohol use (past-year alcohol use, number of drinks in the past month and episodic heavy drinking within the past month) and psychological and physical TDV victimisation and perpetration. Latent transition analysis was used to examine if the latent status based on TDV and alcohol use changed over time. Five separate latent statuses were identified: (i) no violence, no alcohol; (ii) alcohol; (iii) psychological violence, no alcohol; (iv) psychological violence, alcohol; and (v) physical and psychological violence, alcohol. Latent transition analysis indicated that adolescents generally remained in the same subgroup across time. This study provides evidence on the co-occurrence of alcohol use and teen dating violence, and whether teens' status based on dating violence and alcohol use are stable over time. Findings from the current study highlight the importance of targeting both TDV and substance use in intervention and prevention programs. [Choi HJ, Elmquist J, Shorey RC, Rothman EF, Stuart GL,Temple JR. Stability of alcohol use and teen dating violence for female youth: Alatent transition analysis. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:80-87]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.