WorldWideScience

Sample records for spill accident modeling

  1. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Broström

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution, the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  2. Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

    2013-03-01

    Oil spill research has significantly increased mainly as a result of the severe consequences experienced from industry accidents. Oil spill models are currently able to simulate the processes that determine the fate of oil slicks, playing an important role in disaster prevention, control and mitigation, generating valuable information for decision makers and the population in general. On the other hand, satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery has demonstrated significant potential in accidental oil spill detection, when they are accurately differentiated from look-alikes. The combination of both tools can lead to breakthroughs, particularly in the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This paper presents a hindcast simulation of the oil slick resulting from the Motor Tanker (MT) Cercal oil spill, listed by the Portuguese Navy as one of the major oil spills in the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. The accident took place nearby Leix˜oes Harbour, North of the Douro River, Porto (Portugal) on the 2nd of October 1994. The oil slick was segmented from available European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite SAR images, using an algorithm based on a simplified version of the K-means clustering formulation. The image-acquired information, added to the initial conditions and forcings, provided the necessary inputs for the oil spill model. Simulations were made considering the tri-dimensional hydrodynamics in a crossscale domain, from the interior of the Douro River Estuary to the open-ocean on the Iberian Atlantic shelf. Atmospheric forcings (from ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), river forcings (from SNIRH - the Portuguese National Information System of the Hydric Resources) and tidal forcings (from LNEC - the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering), including baroclinic gradients (NOAA), were considered. The lack of data for validation purposes only allowed the use of the

  3. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  4. The Public Value of Reducing the Incidence of Oil Spill Accidents in Korean Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye-Jeong Lee

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Oil spill accidents involving cars or boats for transport in rivers can contaminate drinking water sources. During the past ten years, an annual average of forty-six cases of oil spill accidents have occurred in Korean rivers. Because of this, the Korean government is seeking to reduce the incidence of oil spill accidents in rivers by half. This article aims to evaluate the public value of the reduction. Household willingness to pay (WTP for the reduction was investigated, applying the contingent valuation approach. A survey of 1000 households was carried out in Korea. The data on the WTP were gathered using a dichotomous choice question and analyzed employing the spike model. The mean WTP estimate is obtained as KRW 6188 (USD 5.28 per household per annum, which is statistically meaningful. The total public value expanded to the population amounts to KRW 120.8 billion (USD 103.0 million per year. The information can be utilized in policy-making and decision-making about the reduction of the incidence of oil spill accidents in rivers by half.

  5. Some recommendations for testing oil spill computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Martinez, R.

    1998-01-01

    According to a recent state-of-the-art review of modelling transport and fate of spills, more than 50 oil spill models have been developed in the last 30 years. Even though some of these models are used for spill response actions during accidents, environmental impact assessment, contingency planning and response training, there are no standard methodologies to evaluate their quality. This article presents some ideas that may contribute to design a set of standard benchmarks that would allow users and developers to assess models on a rational basis. (author)

  6. Spatial data quality and coastal spill modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Brimicombe, A.J.; Ralphs, M.P.

    1998-01-01

    Issues of spatial data quality are central to the whole oil spill modelling process. Both model and data quality performance issues should be considered as indispensable parts of a complete oil spill model specification and testing procedure. This paper presents initial results of research that will emphasise to modeler and manager alike the practical issues of spatial data quality for coastal oil spill modelling. It is centred around a case study of Jiao Zhou Bay in the People's Republic of China. The implications for coastal oil spill modelling are discussed and some strategies for managing the effects of spatial data quality in the outputs of oil spill modelling are explored. (author)

  7. Modeling Human Exposure Levels to Airborne Volatile Organic Compounds by the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Jong Ho; Kwak, Byoung Kyu; Ha, Mina; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Yi, Jongheop

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The goal was to model and quantify the atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as the result of the Hebei Spirit oil spill, and to predict whether the exposure levels were abnormally high or not. Methods We developed a model for calculating the airborne concentration of VOCs that are produced in an oil spill accident. The model was applied to a practical situation, namely the Hebei Spirit oil spill. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the res...

  8. Synopsis of an oil spill modeling workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finnigan, T.D.

    1996-01-01

    The performance quality of various PC-based numerical spill models available on the market, were evaluated in a special spill modeling workshop. The models examined included OSSM/ADIOS, WOSM, OILMAP, SPILLSIM, and COZOIL. It was found that most oil spill trajectory models are based on the same basic trajectory and fates algorithms, but often provide different results. This anomaly was attributed to variations in how the algorithms are programmed and implemented. The lack of uniformity of predictions has contributed to a lack of faith in model results by local authorities, spill response operators and logistics groups. Some of the criticism levelled against the merits of the different spill models was considered unjustified by workshop participants. A list of 'best practices' for modeling/response strategies was compiled, and steps to be taken to minimize the variations in spill trajectory and weathering forecasts that would likely improve the usefulness of the models were identified. 15 refs., 4 figs

  9. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  10. Integration of Web-GIS and oil spill simulation applications for environmental management of near-shore spill accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goto, S.; Miyata, D.; Varlamov, S.M.; Kim, S.-W.

    2001-01-01

    In the event of a near-shore oil spill, the use of a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) can greatly improve emergency response management and oil recovery operations by providing real-time information support. This paper presented a Web-GIS that is used in combination with an oil spill simulation model. The structure and content of the system was defined after the Nakhodka vessel spilled oil in the Sea of Japan in January 1997, leaving serious environmental damage to the coastal area of the Ishikawa prefecture. The Web-GIS provides a wide range of environmental and oil spill related information, presented in a geographical form. The system also consolidates spill and environmental damage related information from different sources and provides links to the specialized environmental and socio-economical information of other GIS databases. The oil spill modeling subsystem is part of an application for protection planning and oil recovery operations. With this system, oil-drift simulation begins at the onset of any oil spill and then remote sensing data are used to estimate the position and state of the spilled oil. The spill information is then assimilated into the spill model and the observed simulated results are uploaded to the Web page for public information. The applicability of the Web-GIS is extended by support for information gathering from the public and the responsible agencies. The relative simplicity of the system interface is an added advantage. 9 refs., 4 figs

  11. Final report of the accident phenomenology and consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation. Spills Working Group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brereton, S.; Shinn, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hesse, D [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States); Kaninich, D. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Lazaro, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Mubayi, V. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-08-01

    The Spills Working Group was one of six working groups established under the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation program. The objectives of APAC were to assess methodologies available in the accident phenomenology and consequence analysis area and to evaluate their adequacy for use in preparing DOE facility safety basis documentation, such as Basis for Interim Operation (BIO), Justification for Continued Operation (JCO), Hazard Analysis Documents, and Safety Analysis Reports (SARs). Additional objectives of APAC were to identify development needs and to define standard practices to be followed in the analyses supporting facility safety basis documentation. The Spills Working Group focused on methodologies for estimating four types of spill source terms: liquid chemical spills and evaporation, pressurized liquid/gas releases, solid spills and resuspension/sublimation, and resuspension of particulate matter from liquid spills.

  12. Liability and compensation for oil spill accidents : International regime and its implementation in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Marine oil spill accidents have long been caused by ship collisions. However, the proliferation of offshore oil and gas installations portends a marked increase in oil spills from these sources. This presents a unique enforcement challenge for international and Chinese domestic systems for oil

  13. The Worldwide Oil Spill Model (WOSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, E.L.; Howlett, E.; Jayko, K.; Reed, M.; Spaulding, M.; Kolluru, V.

    1993-01-01

    The Worldwide Oil Spill Model (WOSM) is a standalone microcomputer-based state-of-the-art oil spill model system for use in oil spill response decision support, planning, research, training, and contingency planning. WOSM was developed under support provided by a consortium of oil companies and government agencies. WOSM represents the next generation of oil spill model beyond the OILMAP modelling system (Spaulding et al, 1992). WOSM is designed in a shell architecture in which the only parameters that change are those that describe the area in which the spill model is to be applied. A limited function geographic information system (GIS) is integrated within the model system, and the spill modelling shell has been extended to include interfaces to other GIS systems and digital data. WOSM contains all the databases, data manipulation and graphical display tools, and models to simulate any type of oil spill. The user has control over which weathering processes are to be modelled, and WOSM data input tools enable continual refinement of model predictions as more refined data is imported. Use of WOSM is described and illustrated, showing sample screens and applications. WOSM algorithms and file structure are also outlined. An example test case of a spill in the Juan de Fuca strait is included. 29 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  14. Oil spill models for emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgins, D.O.

    1997-01-01

    The need for, and the nature of an oil spill model, were discussed. Modern oil spill models were shown to provide rapid and accurate input of information about a marine spill, as well as to provide powerful visualization methods for displaying output data. Marine oil spill models are designed to answer five questions: (1) where will the oil go in 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours, (2) how fast will it move, (3) how big will the slick get, (4) how much will end up on shore and where, and (5) how do the oil properties change. The models are able to provide timely and accurate results by using reasonably complete algorithms for the physics and chemistry governing oil slick evolution that take advantage of computer visualization methods for displaying output data. These models have been made possible through new technologies which have increased access to environmental data on winds, currents and satellite imaging of slicks. Spill modelling is also evolving by taking advantage of the Internet for both acquisition of input data and dissemination of results. 5 figs

  15. Evaluation of bird impacts on historical oil spill cases using the SIMAP oil spill model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.; Rowe, J.J.

    2004-01-01

    The impact of an oil spill on bird and other wildlife species can be estimated using the Spill Impact Model Application Package (SIMAP). SIMAP estimates exposure and impact on bird species and their habitat based on physical fate and biological effects models under a broad range of environmental conditions. This paper presented the evaluations of 14 spill case studies which compared model predictions of biological impacts with field observations after a spill. Most of the observational data on the biological impacts of spills was for oiled birds and other wildlife. The impact of an oil spill on fish and invertebrates was examined in one case study. Error analysis was not performed on the field-base estimates of impact. Biological abundances and impacts are highly variable in time and space and very difficult to measure and quantify. Model-predicted and field-based estimates of oiled wildlife were compared. Uncertainty in the model-predicted number of oil wildlife was most related to mapping of biological distributions, behaviour of individuals, and local population density at the time of spill. The greatest uncertainty was the pre-spill abundance. The number of animals oils was found to be directly proportional to the pre-spill abundance assumed in the model inputs. Relative impact can be inferred from the percentage of population oiled. The total number oiled by a spill can be extrapolated using trajectories of oiled birds and counts of oiled animals collected in the field. 54 refs., 16 tabs., 12 figs

  16. New techniques on oil spill modelling applied in the Eastern Mediterranean sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodiatis, George; Kokinou, Eleni; Alves, Tiago; Lardner, Robin

    2016-04-01

    Small or large oil spills resulting from accidents on oil and gas platforms or due to the maritime traffic comprise a major environmental threat for all marine and coastal systems, and they are responsible for huge economic losses concerning the human infrastructures and the tourism. This work aims at presenting the integration of oil-spill model, bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, geomorphological and geological data to assess the impact of oil spills in maritime regions such as bays, as well as in the open sea, carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea within the frame of NEREIDs, MEDESS-4MS and RAOP-Med EU projects. The MEDSLIK oil spill predictions are successfully combined with bathymetric analyses, the shoreline susceptibility and hazard mapping to predict the oil slick trajectories and the extend of the coastal areas affected. Based on MEDSLIK results, oil spill spreading and dispersion scenarios are produced both for non-mitigated and mitigated oil spills. MEDSLIK model considers three response combating methods of floating oil spills: a) mechanical recovery using skimmers or similar mechanisms; b) destruction by fire, c) use of dispersants or other bio-chemical means and deployment of booms. Shoreline susceptibility map can be compiled for the study areas based on the Environmental Susceptibility Index. The ESI classification considers a range of values between 1 and 9, with level 1 (ESI 1) representing areas of low susceptibility, impermeable to oil spilt during accidents, such as linear shorelines with rocky cliffs. In contrast, ESI 9 shores are highly vulnerable, and often coincide with natural reserves and special protected areas. Additionally, hazard maps of the maritime and coastal areas, possibly exposed to the danger on an oil spill, evaluate and categorize the hazard in levels from low to very high. This is important because a) Prior to an oil spill accident, hazard and shoreline susceptibility maps are made available to design

  17. Securing the Safety of Nuclear Power Plants against Oil Spill Accidents at Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Gyu; Choi, Ho Seon; Kim, Sang Yun

    2008-01-01

    As of 2008, 20 nuclear power plants are under operation and six plants are under construction in Korea. NPPs account for approximately 38% of Korea's electric power production; however, it is expected that the share of power produced by NPPs will be further increased to reduce the level of CO 2 emissions, taking into account the concern over global warming. All of NPPs in Korea are located on the coast to facilitate the supply of cooling water sources. Thus, tar and other floating matters from vessels following oil spill accidents at sea may affect intake systems, and consequently interrupt the supply of cooling water. This study will review cases of response measures taken by NPPs against large-scale crude oil spill accidents that had occurred off the coast of Korea, including such accidents as the Sea Prince (July 23, 1995) and the Hebei Sprit(December 7, 2007), and relevant regulatory requirements at home and abroad

  18. Oil spill monitoring and forecasting on the Prestige-Nassau accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montero, P.; Blanco, J.; Cabanas, J.M.; Maneiro, J.; Pazos, Y.; Morono, A. [Unidade de Observacion Proxima CPAM, Vilaxoan, Pontevedra (Spain); Balseiro, C.F.; Carracedo, P.; Gomez, B.; Penabad, E.; Perez-Munuzuri, V. [MeteoGalicia CMA, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Braunschweig, F.; Fernandes, R.; Leitao, P.C.; Neves, R. [MARETEC IST, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2003-07-01

    The Prestige-Nassau tanker ship spilled about 10,000 tons of oil off the coast of Spain on November 13, 2002 during a severe storm. On November 19, the ship split in half and sank 133 nautical miles from the Galician coast to a depth of 3,500 metres, spilling another 20,000 tons of oil. The Galician government set up an Office of Nearshore Surveillance and recruited people from the Galician Regional Meteorological Service and the Spanish Institute of Oceanography to monitor the slick and forecast its trajectory. The main spill arrived at Galicia on November 30, damaging most of the coast. A variety of models that combined surface wind drift and ocean currents were used to forecast the movement of the spill. These included the Mothy from MeteoFrance, and DERIVA from the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute. Two models were also developed by MeteoGalicia and MAETEC. The path followed by the oil spill was classified in three parts. The first spill of 10,000 tons took place from November 13 until the ship split in two. The second spill of around 20,000 tons of oil occurred when the ship sank on November 19. The last spill includes oil that continued to leak from the sunken tanker at a rate of 125 tons per day. The trajectory predictions were found to be in good agreement with aerial observations. 24 refs., 10 figs.

  19. Children's Mental Health in the Area Affected by the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Ha, Mina; Jeong, Woo-Chul; Lim, Myungho; Kwon, Hojang; Choi, Yeyong; Yoo, Seung-Jin; Noh, Su Ryun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Children are one of the most vulnerable populations to the impact of disasters. We aimed to examine children's mental health in the area affected by the Hebei Spirit oil spill accident on December 7, 2007. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted using the Korean versions of the Children's Depression Inventory and State Anxiety Inventory for Children on 1,362 children attending elementary schools in the affected area. The information on distances between the nea...

  20. Stochastic Plume Simulations for the Fukushima Accident and the Deep Water Horizon Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, E.; Peggion, G.; Rowley, C.; Hogan, P.

    2012-04-01

    The Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant suffered damage leading to radioactive contamination of coastal waters. Major issues in characterizing the extent of the affected waters were a poor knowledge of the radiation released to the coastal waters and the rather complex coastal dynamics of the region, not deterministically captured by the available prediction systems. Equivalently, during the Gulf of Mexico Deep Water Horizon oil platform accident in April 2010, significant amounts of oil and gas were released from the ocean floor. For this case, issues in mapping and predicting the extent of the affected waters in real-time were a poor knowledge of the actual amounts of oil reaching the surface and the fact that coastal dynamics over the region were not deterministically captured by the available prediction systems. To assess the ocean regions and times that were most likely affected by these accidents while capturing the above sources of uncertainty, ensembles of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) were configured over the two regions (NE Japan and Northern Gulf of Mexico). For the Fukushima case tracers were released on each ensemble member; their locations at each instant provided reference positions of water volumes where the signature of water released from the plant could be found. For the Deep Water Horizon oil spill case each ensemble member was coupled with a diffusion-advection solution to estimate possible scenarios of oil concentrations using perturbed estimates of the released amounts as the source terms at the surface. Stochastic plumes were then defined using a Risk Assessment Code (RAC) analysis that associates a number from 1 to 5 to each grid point, determined by the likelihood of having tracer particle within short ranges (for the Fukushima case), hence defining the high risk areas and those recommended for monitoring. For the Oil Spill case the RAC codes were determined by the likelihood of reaching oil concentrations as defined in the Bonn Agreement

  1. Oil Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oil spills often happen because of accidents, when people make mistakes or equipment breaks down. Other causes include natural disasters or deliberate acts. Oil spills have major environmental and economic effects. Oil ...

  2. Environmental impacts of the Chennai oil spill accident - A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yuling; Nambi, Indumathi M; Prabhakar Clement, T

    2018-06-01

    Chennai, a coastal city in India with a population of over 7 million people, was impacted by a major oil spill on January 28th 2017. The spill occurred when two cargo ships collided about two miles away from the Chennai shoreline. The accident released about 75 metric tons of heavy fuel oil into the Bay of Bengal. This case study provides field observations and laboratory characterization data for this oil spill accident. Our field observations show that the seawalls and groins, which were installed along the Chennai shoreline to manage coastal erosion problems, played a significant role in controlling the oil deposition patterns. A large amount of oil was trapped within the relatively stagnant zone near the seawall-groin intersection region. The initial cleanup efforts used manual methods to skim the trapped oil and these efforts indeed helped recover large amount of oil. Our laboratory data show that the Chennai oil spill residues have unique fingerprints of hopanes and steranes which can be used to track the spill. Our weathering experiments show that volatilization processes should have played a significant role in degrading the oil during initial hours. The characterization data show that the source oil contained about 503,000 mg/kg of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and 17,586 mg/kg of total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The field samples collected 6 and 62 days after the spill contained about 71,000 and 28,000 mg/kg of TPH and 4854 and 4016 mg/kg of total PAHs, respectively. The field samples had a relatively large percentage of heavy PAHs, and most of these PAHs are highly toxic compounds that are difficult to weather and their long-term effects on coastal ecosystems are largely unknown. Therefore, more detailed studies are needed to monitor and track the long term environmental impacts of the Chennai oil spill residues on the Bay of Bengal coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Biodegradation of marine oil spill residues using aboriginal bacterial consortium based on Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chuanyuan; Liu, Xing; Guo, Jie; Lv, Yingchun; Li, Yuanwei

    2018-09-15

    Bioremediation, mainly by indigenous bacteria, has been regarded as an effective way to deal with the petroleum pollution after an oil spill accident. The biodegradation of crude oil by microorganisms co-incubated from sediments collected from the Penglai 19-3 oil platform, Bohai Sea, China, was examined. The relative susceptibility of the isomers of alkylnaphthalenes, alkylphenanthrenes and alkyldibenzothiophene to biodegradation was also discussed. The results showed that the relative degradation values of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) are 43.56% and 51.29% for sediments with untreated microcosms (S-BR1) and surfactant-treated microcosms (S-BR2), respectively. TPH biodegradation results showed an obvious decrease in saturates (biodegradation rate: 67.85-77.29%) and a slight decrease in aromatics (biodegradation rate: 47.13-57.21%), while no significant difference of resins and asphaltenes was detected. The biodegradation efficiency of alkylnaphthalenes, alkylphenanthrenes and alkyldibenzothiophene for S-BR1 and S-BR2 samples reaches 1.28-84.43% and 42.56-86.67%, respectively. The efficiency of crude oil degradation in sediment with surfactant-treated microcosms cultures added Tween 20, was higher than that in sediment with untreated microcosms. The biodegradation and selective depletion is not only controlled by thermodynamics but also related to the stereochemical structure of individual isomer compounds. Information on the biodegradation of oil spill residues by the bacterial community revealed in this study will be useful in developing strategies for bioremediation of crude oil dispersed in the marine ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Use of three generations of oil spill models during the Gulf War oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerkirge, H.M.; Al-Rabeh, A.H.; Gunay, N.

    1992-01-01

    During the January-May 1991 Gulf War, an estimated 6 million bbl of oil was spilled into the Arabian Gulf, mostly around Mina Al-Ahmadi in southern Kuwait. Three models were used to analyze the fate and transport of the spills originating at Al-Ahmadi. The first generation model, GULFSLIK I, was developed in the late 1970s and predicts the movements of a spill by considering that the center of the slick advects with a velocity equal to 3% of the wind speed. This model is best for the initial forecasting of oil spill movement. The second generation GULFSLIK II Model predicts the trajectory of spills at 24 h intervals, requiring as input the average daily wind velocity. Surface currents are obtained for the model from a reliable 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Gulf coupled with an appropriate interpolation scheme. Comparisons between predicted spill trajectories and actual sightings show GULFSLIK II to be reasonably accurate. The third generation model, called OILPOL, consists of a set of algorithms describing the processes of advection, turbulent diffusion, surface spreading, vertical mechanical dispersion, emulsification, and evaporation. After 80 days, results show under 8% of the initial oil volume remains on the sea surface while 15% is suspended in the water column or sedimented on the sea bed. Comparisons of simulation results and actual sightings show excellent agreement. 4 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Validation of an orimulsion spill fates model using observations from field test spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D. P.; Rines, H.; Masciangioli, P.

    1997-01-01

    The SIMAP Spill Impact Model system was developed to simulate fates and effects of spilled oil and other fuels in 3-D and time. Orimulsion is a Venezuelan product consisting of 70 per cent bitumen and 30 per cent water which has been shipped to many parts of the world for some time without an accidental spill into coastal or marine waters. In July 1966 two intentional spills of Orimulsion into Carribean waters were made and sampled in detail in order to verify the SIMAP model. Data on physical dispersion was collected at the same time. Data collected in the field was compared with model simulations. Results confirmed SIMAP's ability to predict the increasing dispersion and shearing of the bitumen plume as wind speed increases, as well as the actual field distribution of subsurface and surface bitumen. 17 refs., 7 tabs., 26 figs

  6. Computer modeling of oil spill trajectories with a high accuracy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Martinez, Reinaldo; Flores-Tovar, Henry

    1999-01-01

    This paper proposes a high accuracy numerical method to model oil spill trajectories using a particle-tracking algorithm. The Euler method, used to calculate oil trajectories, can give adequate solutions in most open ocean applications. However, this method may not predict accurate particle trajectories in certain highly non-uniform velocity fields near coastal zones or in river problems. Simple numerical experiments show that the Euler method may also introduce artificial numerical dispersion that could lead to overestimation of spill areas. This article proposes a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method with fourth-order velocity interpolation to calculate oil trajectories that minimise these problems. The algorithm is implemented in the OilTrack model to predict oil trajectories following the 'Nissos Amorgos' oil spill accident that occurred in the Gulf of Venezuela in 1997. Despite lack of adequate field information, model results compare well with observations in the impacted area. (Author)

  7. Children's Mental Health in the Area Affected by the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Woo-Chul; Lim, Myungho; Kwon, Hojang; Choi, Yeyong; Yoo, Seung-Jin; Noh, Su Ryun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Children are one of the most vulnerable populations to the impact of disasters. We aimed to examine children's mental health in the area affected by the Hebei Spirit oil spill accident on December 7, 2007. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted using the Korean versions of the Children's Depression Inventory and State Anxiety Inventory for Children on 1,362 children attending elementary schools in the affected area. The information on distances between the nearest contaminated coastline to the child's residential house or attending school were obtained using a web-based map by inputting two address points. The symptom risks of depression and state anxiety were estimated by multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, gender, and other covariates. Results Children with the closest distance (in the fourth quartile) to the school from the contaminated coastline showed a significantly higher symptom risk of depression compared to those with the farthest distance (first quartile)(odds ratio, 2.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-5.33), while there was no significant association between anxiety symptoms and distance. Conclusions Children, a vulnerable population for mental health impact by the oil spill accident, should be included in mental health programs in the community along with their family as victims of the disaster. PMID:24010065

  8. Multidisciplinary oil spill modeling to protect coastal communities and the environment of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Tiago M.; Kokinou, Eleni; Zodiatis, George; Radhakrishnan, Hari; Panagiotakis, Costas; Lardner, Robin

    2016-11-01

    We present new mathematical and geological models to assist civil protection authorities in the mitigation of potential oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Oil spill simulations for 19 existing offshore wells were carried out based on novel and high resolution bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data. The simulations show a trend for east and northeast movement of oil spills into the Levantine Basin, affecting the coastal areas of Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Oil slicks will reach the coast in 1 to 20 days, driven by the action of the winds, currents and waves. By applying a qualitative analysis, seabed morphology is for the first time related to the direction of the oil slick expansion, as it is able to alter the movement of sea currents. Specifically, the direction of the major axis of the oil spills, in most of the cases examined, is oriented according to the prevailing azimuth of bathymetric features. This work suggests that oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea should be mitigated in the very few hours after their onset, and before wind and currents disperse them. We explain that protocols should be prioritized between neighboring countries to mitigate any oil spills.

  9. The use of long range identification and tracking (LRIT) for modelling the risk of ship-based oil spills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szeto, Andrew [Canadian Coast Guard (Canada)], email: andrew.szeto@dfo-mpo.gc.ca; Pelot, Ronald [Dalhousie University (Canada)], email: ronald.pelot@dal.ca

    2011-07-01

    Accidents involving oil tankers have caused many and sometimes very large oil spills. Such spills to marine areas have a significant impact on environmental quality affecting all aspects of marine ecosystems. Based on valid shipping traffic data as a very important factor that must be considered in modeling the risk of ship-based oil spills, this paper shows the importance of use of the long-range identification and tracking (LRIT) system and looks at how it can be implemented to better assess ship-based oil pollution. The system is a new, accurate and reliable world-wide vessel tracking system with a range of data extended out to 1000 nm from Canadian shores and currently tracks up to about 900 vessels a day in real-time. It is believed that traffic data and effective monitoring can assist with search planning for detection of mystery spills, better resource deployment for spill mitigation, and improving information for research and management.

  10. Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Kai W.; Liu, Xin

    2006-12-01

    Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.

  11. Simple suggestions for including vertical physics in oil spill models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Asaro, Eric; University of Washington, Seatle, WA

    2001-01-01

    Current models of oil spills include no vertical physics. They neglect the effect of vertical water motions on the transport and concentration of floating oil. Some simple ways to introduce vertical physics are suggested here. The major suggestion is to routinely measure the density stratification of the upper ocean during oil spills in order to develop a database on the effect of stratification. (Author)

  12. A case study of consensus modelling for tracking oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Brian; Brushett, Ben; Lemckert, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to marine incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the likely drift pattern and the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast models and two wind forecast models currently used operationally in the Australia and Asia Pacific region. The availability of several different forecast models provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different model and determining whether there is consensus in the results. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the Montara well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling.

  13. Computational model for the assessment of oil spill damages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seip, K L; Heiberg, A B; Brekke, K A

    1985-06-01

    A description is given of the method and the required data of a model for calculating oil spill damages. Eleven damage attributes are defined: shorelength contaminated, shore restitution time, birds dead, restitution time for three groups of birds, open sea damages-two types, damages to recreation, economy and fisheries. The model has been applied in several cases of oil pollution assessments: in an examination of alternative models for the organization of oil spill combat in Norway, in the assessment of the damages coused by a blowout at Tromsoeflaket and in assessing a possible increase in oil spill preparedness for Svalbard. 56 references.

  14. Support mechanisms for oil spill accident response in costal lagoon areas (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Eduardo R.; Silveira, Bruno; Alves, Fátima L.

    2014-10-01

    Oil spill accidents can be caused by several risk factors associated to maritime transport and port activities, which cannot always be predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is essential to support prevention and contingency plans, whose effectiveness is crucial to produce adequate responses and minimize resulting impacts. Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) is a wide coastal lagoon, within a densely populated area, representing a concentration of important biodiversity resources and several economic activities. This paper presents alternative methodologies to support the optimization of civil protection assets in the occurrence of oil spill events and the results of their application on a section area of the Aveiro Lagoon, using an established geographic information system database containing crucial data. The presented methodologies are based on the Environmental Sensitivity Index developed by the North American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) and the Global Vulnerability Index which were applied on the Bay of Biscay (Spain). However, during the development of this work, neither of these methodologies was considered to entirely assess the study area in its full extent, which led to the need to adapt and define a bespoke approach. The introduced changes include extra categories in shoreline classification, an adapted physical vulnerability index for coastal lagoons, differentiated aspects for highly protected status areas, qualitative assessment of socioeconomic features and an access and operability index created to support emergency operation response. The resulting maps are the subject of analysis, in which considerations regarding control and cleanup methods are introduced, together with guidelines for further integration in local risk management strategies.

  15. Ottawa river nuclear spill contingency model development. Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    This manual describes the calibration and application of a series of spill model programs. The programs simulate the receiving water concentrations in rivers, resulting from discharges/spill which can vary in time as well as being intermittent. The programs incorporate computer graphic outputs of the spill distribution at given times after the beginning of the spill, and at given downstream distances as a function of time. The manual outlines the procedure to calibrate the models based on site specific data. Detailed technical discussions on various components of the models are also included. The programs have been set up in an interactive (inquiry-response) mode. The series of programs are written on Fortran 77 and run on all IBM PC and compatible computers

  16. Application of oil spill model to marine pollution and risk control problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aseev, Nikita; Agoshkov, Valery; Sheloput, Tatyana

    2017-04-01

    Oil transportation by sea induces challenging problems of environmental control. Millions of tonnes of oil are yearly released during routine ship operations, not to mention vast spills due to different accidents (e.g. tanker collisions, grounding, etc.). Oil pollution is dangerous to marine organisms such as plants, fish and mammals, leading to widespread damage to our planet. In turn, fishery and travel agencies can lose money and clients, and ship operators are obliged to pay huge penalties for environmental pollution. In this work we present the method of accessing oil pollution of marine environment using recently developed oil spill model. The model describes basic processes of the oil slick evolution: oil transport due to currents, drift under the action of wind, spreading on the surface, evaporation, emulsification and dispersion. Such parameters as slick location, mass, density of oil, water content, viscosity and density of "water-in-oil" emulsion can be calculated. We demonstrate how to apply the model to damage calculation problems using a concept of average damage to particular marine area. We also formulate the problem of oil spill risk control, when some accident parameters are not known, but their probability distribution is given. We propose a new algorithm to solve such problems and show results of our model simulations. The work can be interesting to broad environmental, physics and mathematics community. The work is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 16-31-00510.

  17. Nature preservation acceptance model applied to tanker oil spill simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    is exemplified by a study of oil spills due to simulated tanker collisions in the Danish straits. It is found that the distribution of the oil spill volume per spill is well represented by an exponential distribution both in Oeresund and in Great Belt. When applied in the Poisson model, a risk profile reasonably...... acceptance criterion for the pollution of the environment. This NPWI acceptance criterion is applied to the oil spill example....... be defined in a similar way as the so-called Life Quality Index defined by Nathwani et al [Nathwani JS, Lind NC, Padey MD. Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method. Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo; Waterloo (Ontario, Canada):1997], and can be used to quantify the risk...

  18. Numerical modeling of oil spills in continental and estuarine waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeury, C.

    2012-10-01

    The application of the European Water Framework Directive on water quality for human consumption and industrial activities creates a need for water quality assessment and monitoring systems. The MIGR'HYCAR research project (http://www.migrhycar.com) was initiated to provide decisional tools for risks connected to oil spills in continental waters (rivers, lakes and estuaries), which represent more than 50% of accidental spills in France. Within the framework of this project, a new numerical oil spill model has been developed, as part of the TELEMAC hydro-informatics system (http://www.opentelemac.org), by combining Lagrangian and Eulerian methods. The Lagrangian model describes the transport of an oil spill near the free surface. The oil spill model enables to simulate the main processes driving oil plumes: advection, diffusion, oil beaching, oil re-floating, evaporation, dissolution, spreading and volatilization. Though generally considered as a minor process, dissolution is important from the point of view of toxicity. To model dissolved oil in water, an Eulerian advection-diffusion model is used. The fraction of dissolved oil is represented by a passive tracer. This approach is able to follow dissolved hydrocarbons in the water column. Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise the numerous kinetics of the processes listed above. In addition, meso-scale dynamic experiments in artificial channels and test cases derived from the literature are used to validate the numerical model. (author)

  19. Oil spill modeling input to the offshore environmental cost model (OECM) for US-BOEMRE's spill risk and costs evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, Deborah; Reich, Danielle; Rowe, Jill; Schroeder, Melanie; Graham, Eileen

    2011-01-01

    This paper simulates the consequences of oil spills using a planning model known as the Offshore Environmental Cost Model (OECM). This study aims at creating various predictive models for possible oil spill scenarios in marine waters. A crucial part of this investigation was the SIMAP model. It analyzes the distance and the direction covered by the spill under certain test conditions, generating a regression equation that simulates the impact of the spill. Tests were run in two different regions; the Mid-Atlantic region and the Chukchi Sea. Results showed that the higher wind speeds and higher water temperature of the Mid-Atlantic region had greater impact on wildlife and the water column respectively. However, short-line impact was higher in the Chukchi area due to the multi-directional wind. It was also shown that, because of their higher diffusivity in water, lighter crude oils had more impact than heavier oils. It was suggested that this model could ultimately be applied to other oil spill scenarios happening under similar conditions.

  20. Satellite observations and modeling of oil spill trajectories in the Bohai Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Li, Xiaofeng; Wei, Yongliang

    2013-01-01

    On June 4 and 17, 2011, separate oil spill accidents occurred at two oil platforms in the Bohai Sea, China. The oil spills were subsequently observed on different types of satellite images including SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), Chinese HJ-1-B CCD and NASA MODIS. To illustrate the fate of the oil...

  1. Modeling Human Exposure Levels to Airborne Volatile Organic Compounds by the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jong Ho; Kwak, Byoung Kyu; Ha, Mina; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The goal was to model and quantify the atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as the result of the Hebei Spirit oil spill, and to predict whether the exposure levels were abnormally high or not. Methods We developed a model for calculating the airborne concentration of VOCs that are produced in an oil spill accident. The model was applied to a practical situation, namely the Hebei Spirit oil spill. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the results with previous observation data. The concentrations were compared with the currently used air quality standards. Results Evaporation was found to be 10- to 1,000-fold higher than the emissions produced from a surrounding industrial complex. The modeled concentrations for benzene failed to meet current labor environmental standards, and the concentration of benzene, toluene, ortho- meta- para-xylene were higher than the values specified by air quality standards and guideline values on the ocean. The concentrations of total VOCs were much higher than indoor environmental criteria for the entire Taean area for a few days. Conclusions The extent of airborne exposure was clearly not the same as that for normal conditions. PMID:22468262

  2. Control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yang

    2007-01-01

    Spatial discretisation plays an important role in many numerical environmental models. This paper studies the control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling with a view to assure the quality of modelling outputs for given spatial data inputs. Spatial data analysis techniques are effective for investigating and improving the spatial discretisation in different phases of the modelling. Proposed methods are implemented and tested with experimental models. A new “Automatic Searc...

  3. An oil spill-food chain interaction model for coastal waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yew Hoong Gin, K.; Huda, Md. K.; Tkalich, P.

    2001-01-01

    An oil spill-food chain interaction model, composed of a multiphase oil spill model (MOSM) and a food chain model, has been developed to assess the probable impacts of oil spills on several key marine organisms (phytoplankton, zooplankton, small fish, large fish and benthic invertebrates). The MOSM predicts oil slick thickness on the water surface; dissolved, emulsified and particulate oil concentrations in the water column; and dissolved and particulate oil concentrations in bed sediments. This model is used to predict the fate of oil spills and transport with respect to specific organic compounds, while the food chain model addresses the uptake of toxicant by marine organisms. The oil spill-food chain interaction model can be used to assess the environmental impacts of oil spills in marine ecosystems. The model is applied to the recent Evoikos-Orapin Global oil spill that occurred in the Singapore Strait. (author)

  4. A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Weckström, Mia; Kujala, Pentti

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A model evaluating oil spill cleanup-costs for the Gulf of Finland is presented. • Bayesian Belief Networks are used to develop the model in a probabilistic fashion. • The results are compared with existing models and good agreement is found. • The model can be applicable for cost-benefit analysis in risk framework. -- Abstract: Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA)

  5. Cost-effectiveness criteria for marine oil spill preventive measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanem, Erik; Endresen, Oyvind; Skjong, Rolf

    2008-01-01

    Oil tanker accidents resulting in large quantities of oil spills and severe pollution have occurred in the past, leading to major public attention and an international focus on finding solutions for minimising the risks related to such events. This paper proposes a novel approach for evaluating measures for prevention and control of marine oil spills, based on considerations of oil spill risk and cost effectiveness. A cost model that incorporates all costs of a shipping accident has been established and oil tanker spill accidents have been further elaborated as a special case of such accidents. Utilising this model, novel implementation criteria, in terms of the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS), for risk control options aiming at mitigating the environmental risk of accidental oil spills, are proposed. The paper presents a review of previous studies on the costs associated with oil spills from shipping, which is a function of many factors such as location of spill, spill amount, type of oil, etc. However, ships are designed for global trade, transporting different oil qualities. Therefore, globally applicable criteria must average over most of these factors, and the spill amount is the remaining factor that will be used to measure cost effectiveness against. A weighted, global average cleanup cost of USD 16,000/tonne of oil spilt has been calculated, considering the distribution of oil tanker traffic densities. Finally, the criteria are compared with some existing regulations for oil spill prevention, response and compensation (OPA 90)

  6. Numerical modelling of an oil spill in the northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Paladin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypothetical cases of oil spills, caused by ship failure in the northern Adriatic, are analysed with the aim of producing three-dimensional models of sea circulation and oil contaminant transport. Sea surface elevations, sea temperature and salinity fields are applied as a forcing argument on the model's open boundaries.The Aladin-HR model with a spatial resolution of 8 km and a time interval of 3 hours is used for atmospheric forcing. River discharges along the coastline in question are introduced as point source terms and are assumed to have zero salinity at their respective locations. The results of the numerical modelling of physical oceanography parameters are validated by measurements carried out in the ‘Adriatic Sea monitoring programme’ in a series of current meter and CTD stations in the period from 1 January 2008 to 15 November 2008.The oil spill model uses the current field obtained from a circulation model.Besides the convective dispersive transport of oil pollution (Lagrangian model of discrete particles, the model takes into account a number of reactive processes such as emulsification, dissolution, evaporation and heat balance between the oil,sea and atmosphere. An actual event took place on 6 February 2008,when the ship `Und Adriyatik' caught fire in the vicinity of the town of Rovinj (Croatia en route from Istanbul (Turkey to Trieste (Italy. At the time the fire broke out, the ship was carrying around 800 tons of oil. Thanks to the rapid intervention of the firedepartment, the fire was extinguished during the following 12 hours,preventing possible catastrophic environmental consequences. Based on this occurrence, five hypothetical scenarios of ship failure with a consequent spill of 800 tons of oil over 12 hours were analysed. The main distinction between the simulated scenarios is the time of the start of the oil spill, corresponding to the times when stronger winds were blowing (>7 m s-1 with a minimum duration of 24 h

  7. Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hales, Jason Dean [Idaho National Laboratory; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence [Idaho National Laboratory

    2016-05-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether either of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the Advanced

  8. Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Weijun

    2017-11-01

    To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Twenty Years after the Nakhodka Oil Spill Accident in the Sea of Japan, How Has Contamination Changed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazue Tazaki

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Nakhodka, a Russian tanker loaded with 19,000 kL of C-type heavy oil, was broken up into sections and submerged off Oki Island, Shimane Prefecture, Japan on 2 January 1997. The bow, after drifting for four days, was wrecked off Anto, Sakai City (Mikuni, Fukui Prefecture, threatening the environment throughout the various shores of Ishikawa Prefecture. The accident, caused by a heavy oil spill of 6200 kL, created serious environmental problems along the shores of Hokuriku District. We report the characterization of C-type heavy oil 20 years after the accident at the Atake seashore, Wajima City, Ishikawa Prefecture, in the Sea of Japan, based on observations in the field on 18 January 2017. We studied the microstructure, mineralogy, chemical composition, and radioactivity associated with microorganisms in the soils, and buried fishing nets and ropes that were contaminated with C-type heavy oil from this spill. The analyses used a combination of micro techniques, analytical data based on a CHN analyzer, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD, and two kinds of scanning electron microscopy equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS. Hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, paraffin wax, cristobalite, graphite, calcite, halite, and biotite from the Nakhodka oil spill were recognized on the surface of ropes and in the soil of the polluted seashores after 20 years. The chemical compositions indicated that high concentrations of C, O, Na, Al, Si, P, S, Ca, Fe, Cl, Sr, and Pb were predominantly indigenous to the Nakhodka oil spill. In the XRD analysis of the oil-contaminated soils on the rope at the Atake seashore indicated paraffin wax, graphite, sulfate, calcite and halite refractions with clay minerals, after 20 years. To date, no report has described the results of electron microscopy observations, such as Micrococcus bacillus and filamentous fungi, found in oil-contaminated soils after 20 years. In this research, such observations are introduced as

  10. Modelling Oil-Spill Detection with Swarm Drones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Aznar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, swarm robotics research is having a great increase due to the benefits derived from its use, such as robustness, parallelism, and flexibility. Unlike distributed robotic systems, swarm robotics emphasizes a large number of robots, and promotes scalability. Among the multiple applications of such systems we could find are exploring unstructured environments, resource monitoring, or distributed sensing. Two of these applications, monitoring, and perimeter/area detection of a given resource, have several ecological uses. One of them is the detection and monitoring of pollutants to delimit their perimeter and area accurately. Maritime activity has been increasing gradually in recent years. Many ships carry products such as oil that can adversely affect the environment. Such products can produce high levels of pollution in case of being spilled into sea. In this paper we will present a distributed system which monitors, covers, and surrounds a resource by using a swarm of homogeneous low cost drones. These drones only use their local sensory information and do not require any direct communication between them. Taking into account the properties of this kind of oil spills we will present a microscopic model for a swarm of drones, capable of monitoring these spills properly. Furthermore, we will analyse the proper macroscopic operation of the swarm. The analytical and experimental results presented here show the proper evolution of our system.

  11. An hydrodynamic model for the calculation of oil spills trajectories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paladino, Emilio Ernesto; Maliska, Clovis Raimundo [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica. Lab. de Dinamica dos Fluidos Computacionais]. E-mails: emilio@sinmec.ufsc.br; maliska@sinmec.ufsc.br

    2000-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model and its numerical treatment to forecast oil spills trajectories in the sea. The knowledge of the trajectory followed by an oil slick spilled on the sea is of fundamental importance in the estimation of potential risks for pipeline and tankers route selection, and in combating the pollution using floating barriers, detergents, etc. In order to estimate these slicks trajectories a new model, based on the mass and momentum conservation equations is presented. The model considers the spreading in the regimes when the inertial and viscous forces counterbalance gravity and takes into account the effects of winds and water currents. The inertial forces are considered for the spreading and the displacement of the oil slick, i.e., is considered its effects on the movement of the mass center of the slick. The mass loss caused by oil evaporation is also taken into account. The numerical model is developed in generalized coordinates, making the model easily applicable to complex coastal geographies. (author)

  12. Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Magnus S; Endresen, Oyvind; Breivik, Oyvind; Brude, Odd Willy; Ellingsen, Ingrid H; Røang, Kjell; Hauge, Jarle; Brett, Per Olaf

    2007-10-01

    This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.

  13. Correspondence model of occupational accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan C. Conte

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a new generalized model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data of the accident rate in all Spanish companies over eleven years (7,519,732 accidents, we classified them in a new risk-injury contingency table (19×19. Through correspondence analysis, we obtained a structure composed of three axes whose combination identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we used as a general Spanish pattern. The most likely or frequent relationships between the risk and injuries identified in the pattern facilitated the decision-making process in companies at an early stage of risk assessment. Each risk-injury group has its own characteristics, which are understandable within the phenomenological framework of the accident. The main advantages of this model are its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting different country results. One limiting factor, however, is the need to set a common classification framework for risks and injuries to enhance comparison, a framework that does not exist today. The model aims to manage work-related accidents automatically at any level.Apresentamos aqui um modelo generalizado para o diagnóstico e predição de acidentes na classe de trabalhadores da Espanha. Baseados em dados sobre a frequência de acidentes em todas as companhias da Espanha em 11 anos (7.519.732 acidentes, nós os classificamos em uma nova tabela de contingência risco-injúria (19×19. Através de uma análise por correspondência obtivemos uma estrutura composta por 3 eixos cuja combinação identifica 3 grupos separados de risco e injúria, que nós usamos como um perfil geral na Espanha. As mais prováveis ou frequentes relações entre risco e injúrias identificadas nesse perfil facilitaram o processo de decisão nas companhias em um estágio inicial de apreciação do risco. Cada grupo de risco-injúria tem suas próprias caracter

  14. Modeling accidents for prioritizing prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hale, A.R.; Ale, B.J.M.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Heijer, T.; Bellamy, L.J; Mud, M.L.; Roelen, A.; Baksteen, H.; Post, J.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bloemhoff, A.; Oh, J.I.H.

    2007-01-01

    The Workgroup Occupational Risk Model (WORM) project in the Netherlands is developing a comprehensive set of scenarios to cover the full range of occupational accidents. The objective is to support companies in their risk analysis and prioritization of prevention. This paper describes how the modeling has developed through projects in the chemical industry, to this one in general industry and how this is planned to develop further in the future to model risk prevention in air transport. The core modeling technique is based on the bowtie, with addition of more explicit modeling of the barriers needed for risk control, the tasks needed to ensure provision, use, monitoring and maintenance of the barriers, and the management resources and tasks required to ensure that these barrier life cycle tasks are carried out effectively. The modeling is moving from a static notion of barriers which can fail, to seeing risk control dynamically as (fallible) means for staying within a safe envelope. The paper shows how concepts develop slowly over a series of projects as a core team works continuously together. It concludes with some results of the WORM project and some indications of how the modeling is raising fundamental questions about the conceptualization of system safety, which need future resolution

  15. Laboratory tests, experimental oil spills, models, and reality: The Braer oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, M.; Daling, P.S.; Brandvik, P.J.; Singsaas, I.

    1993-01-01

    The IKU Petroleum Research organization in Norway has accumulated data on the weathering behavior of spilled oils and petroleum products, mainly pertaining to North Sea crudes. Recent weathering research at IKU has been carried out in an elliptical mesoscale flume and in field tests consisting of experimental releases of crude oil. Results of these tests provided information on oil spill dispersion, evaporation, and emulsification. When the tanker Braer grounded in the Shetland Islands in January 1993 in extreme environmental conditions, the imminent release of a load of 84,000 tonnes of North Sea oil confronted response personnel with a variety of issues including the use of dispersants as a response action. Relevant information on the expected behavior of the crude was obtained within a day of the grounding as a result of close relations between IKU and Warren Spring Laboratory. The question is raised whether such information, which could have been spread between several organizations around the world, will be rapidly accessible in the event of another major spill. It is proposed to establish an electronically accessible database on the behavior and fate of specific oils and petroleum products to address this problem. 9 refs., 4 figs

  16. Attractiveness-Based Airline Network Models with Embedded Spill and Recapture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desmond Di Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In airline revenue management, the modeling of the spill and recapture effects is essential for an accurate estimation of the passenger flow and the revenue in a flight network. However, as most current approaches toward spill and recapture involve either non-linearity or a tremendous amount of additional variables, it is computationally intractable to apply those techniques to the classical network design and capacity planning models.Design/methodology: We present a new framework that incorporates the spill and recapture effects, where the spill from an itinerary is recaptured by other itineraries based on their attractiveness. The presented framework distributes the accepted demand of an itinerary according to the currently available itineraries, without adding extra variables for the recaptured spill. Due to its compactness, we integrate the framework with the classical capacity planning and network design models.Findings: Our preliminary computational study shows an increase of 1.07% in profitability anda better utilization of the network capacity, on a medium-size North American airline provided by Sabre Airline Solutions.Originality/value: Our investigation leads to a holistic model that tackles the network design and capacity planning simultaneously with an accurate modeling of the spill and re- capture effects.Furthermore, the presented framework for spill and recapture is versatile and can be easily applied to other disciplines such as the hospitality industry and product line design (PLD problems.

  17. Development and application of an oil spill model with wave–current interactions in coastal areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, WeiJun; Hao, Yanni; Zhang, Li; Xu, Tiaojian; Ren, Xiaozhong; Cao, Feng; Wang, Shoudong

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Numerical oil spill developed by incorporating wave–current interactions and applied to hindcasting the Dalian oil spill. • Numerical model results taking into wave–current coupling shows better conformity with the observed data. • Oil dispersion will be enhanced due to the gradient of surface wave radiation stress in the coastal waters. - Abstract: The present paper focuses on developing a numerical oil spill model that incorporates the full three-dimensional wave–current interactions for a better representation of the spilled oil transport mechanics in complicated coastal environments. The incorporation of surface wave effects is not only imposing a traditional drag coefficient formulation at the free surface, but also the 3D momentum equations are adjusted to include the impact of the vertically dependent radiation stresses on the currents. Based on the current data from SELFE and wave data from SWAN, the oil spill model utilizes oil particle method to predict the trajectory of individual droplets and the oil concentration. Compared with the observations in Dalian New Port oil spill event, the developed model taking into account wave–current coupling administers to giving better conformity than the one without. The comparisons demonstrates that 3D radiation stress impacts the spill dynamics drastically near the sea surface and along the coastline, while having less impact in deeper water

  18. Biostimulation proved to be the most efficient method in the comparison of in situ soil remediation treatments after a simulated oil spill accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpanen, Suvi; Dahl, Mari; Gerlach, Magdalena; Mikkonen, Anu; Malk, Vuokko; Mikola, Juha; Romantschuk, Martin

    2016-12-01

    The use of in situ techniques in soil remediation is still rare in Finland and most other European countries due to the uncertainty of the effectiveness of the techniques especially in cold regions and also due to their potential side effects on the environment. In this study, we compared the biostimulation, chemical oxidation, and natural attenuation treatments in natural conditions and pilot scale during a 16-month experiment. A real fuel spill accident was used as a model for experiment setup and soil contamination. We found that biostimulation significantly decreased the contaminant leachate into the water, including also the non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL). The total NAPL leachate was 19 % lower in the biostimulation treatment that in the untreated soil and 34 % lower in the biostimulation than oxidation treatment. Soil bacterial growth and community changes were first observed due to the increased carbon content via oil amendment and later due to the enhanced nutrient content via biostimulation. Overall, the most effective treatment for fresh contaminated soil was biostimulation, which enhanced the biodegradation of easily available oil in the mobile phase and consequently reduced contaminant leakage through the soil. The chemical oxidation did not enhance soil cleanup and resulted in the mobilization of contaminants. Our results suggest that biostimulation can decrease or even prevent oil migration in recently contaminated areas and can thus be considered as a potentially safe in situ treatment also in groundwater areas.

  19. A multi-component oil spill model for calculation of evaporation and dissolution of condensate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rye, H.

    1994-01-01

    It is sometimes argued that oil spilled on the sea surface will go much faster into evaporation than solution. This statement may not always be true due to effects from wave action. In such cases high concentrations in the water may occur which could be harmful to biologic life below the sea surface. This paper explains a numerical model which simulates the surface spreading of a continuous spill, exposed to currents, wind and wave action. The spill is decomposed into the different constituents present in the spill. The oil or condensate is divided into 20 different classes with increasing carbon number within the interval C4 to C55. Asphalthenes are not included (non-emulgating spill). Within each class, the hydrocarbons are divided further into 5 subsets (n-alcanes, cycloalcanes, aromatics, napthenes and resins). The model then keeps track of what happens to each of the components (evaporation, dissolution, as droplets or remains in the slick) during an actual spill event. The effect of wave action is included by assuming a balance between the downward flux of hydrocarbons caused by the breaking waves, and the upward flux of droplets driven by the boyancy of the droplets. The dissolution and evaporation of the different oil (or spill) components are then computed. The model shows that the evaporation and dissolution may in some cases be competing processes, in particular for the aromatic compounds. The paper outlines the approach chosen, as well as some example results. 16 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

  20. Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

    2005-05-01

    Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

  1. Physical, chemical and biological observations and modeling of oil spills in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribotti, A.; De Dominicis, M.

    2016-11-01

    such actions. Illegal discharges of oil from ships are often limited in size and scattered but, surprisingly, their sum is higher than that from oil spills, and they may create a chronic impact of oil in certain areas. For instance littoral sediments affected by low or moderated but continuous oil spills, like the coasts of the Bay of Algeciras (near the Strait of Gibraltar), are more polluted than those affected by accidental oil spills such as during the Prestige accident (2002) (Morales-Caselles et al., 2007). Oil discharges may be also accidental. According to the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Ltd (ITOPF) a lot of pollutions are due to a combination of factors that lead to groundings, collisions, structural failures, fires and explosions.

  2. Modeling Skin Injury from Hot Spills on Clothing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torgrim Log

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present work analyzes scald burns from hot beverages, such as coffee and tea, spilled on the lap, i.e., an incident that may occur in daily life. The Pennes bioheat equation is solved numerically for small spills wetting the clothing, i.e., the fabric prevents the spilled liquid from draining away. Temperatures are analyzed in the wetted fabric and the skin layers and the resulting skin injury is calculated based on the basal layer temperature. Parameters influencing burn severity, such as clothing thickness, liquid temperature, removal of fabric and thermal effects of post scald water cooling are analyzed. The fabric cools the water some but represents a threat since the entrapped water results in a prolonged heat supply. The liquid temperature turned out to be the most important injury parameter, where liquid temperature of about 80–85 °C seems to be a limit for developing superficial partial-thickness burns in the present minimum case, i.e., where the liquid just wets the fabric. Spilling water in excess of just wetting the fabric, more severe burns will develop at lower liquid temperatures due to the prolonged heat supply. Higher liquid temperatures will nearly instantly develop more severe burns. It is demonstrated that removal of the clothing within the first seconds after the spill may significantly reduce the scalding severity. The general advice is therefore to avoid excessive heating of beverages and, if the beverage is spilled, to quickly remove the wetted clothing. Prolonged tempered water cooling is advised to improve the healing processes.

  3. Modeling Skin Injury from Hot Rice Porridge Spills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torgrim Log

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present work analyzes skin burns from spills of hot rice and milk products. The traditional Norwegian rice porridge serves as an example. By testing spills on objects emulating an arm, it was concluded that spills were seldom thinner than 3 mm, and stayed in place due to the viscosity of the porridge for more than one minute. The Pennes bioheat equation was solved numerically for such spills, including heat conduction to the skin and convective heat losses from the porridge surface. Temperatures were analyzed in the porridge and skin layers, and the resulting skin injury was calculated based on the basal layer temperature. Parameters influencing burn severity, such as porridge layer thickness, porridge temperature, removal of the porridge and thermal effects of post scald tempered (15 °C water cooling were analyzed. The spilled porridge resulted in a prolonged heat supply to the skin, and the skin injury developed significantly with time. The porridge temperature turned out to be the most important injury parameter. A 70 °C porridge temperature could develop superficial partial-thickness burns. Porridge temperatures at processing temperatures nearly instantly developed severe burns. It was demonstrated that prompt removal of the hot porridge significantly reduced the injury development. The general advice is to avoid serving porridge and similar products at temperatures above 65 °C and, if spilled on the skin, to remove it quickly. After such scald incidents, it is advised to cool the injured area by tempered water for a prolonged period to stimulate healing.

  4. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French-McCay, D.

    2009-01-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs

  5. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    French-McCay, D. [Applied Science Associates Inc., South Kingstown, RI (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  6. SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam crest, an excess flood, an inoperable spillway, taking into account the sequence of the events’ development and with observance of the necessary conditions leading to an accident. “Technical” reasons were observed in the present scenario, force majeure events were not considered. The provided scenario of the accident consists of two branches of events’ development: the left one that depends on an upstream level, and the right one that depends on settling of a dam crest. In each of the considered events an accident “the water spill over a crest of a soil dam” is possible only in case of execution of two different conditions at the same time, i.e. in case of an appropriate upstream level and the appropriate mark of a crest of a soil dam. The conditions of the accident are defined by diagnostic indices - the upstream level and settling of a dam crest, which at the same time are safety criteria of the hydraulic structure for soil dams. They allow defining the technical condition of the construction. Four possible technical conditions are suggested for the definition of technical statuses - normative, operable, limited operable, abnormal. Criteria of safety are the boundaries of the state: for loading and impact - it is the upstream level, for geometrical compliance of the construction - it is a dam crest mark.

  7. Modelling surface radioactive spill dispersion in the Alboran Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perianez, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea are the only connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Intense shipping activities occur in the area, including transport of waste radionuclides and transit of nuclear submarines. Thus, it is relevant to have a dispersion model that can be used in an emergency situation after an accident, to help the decision-making process. Such dispersion model requires an appropriate description of the physical oceanography of the region of interest, with simulations of tides and residual (average) circulation. In this work, a particle-tracking dispersion model that can be used to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the system Strait of Gibraltar-Alboran Sea is described. Tides are simulated using a barotropic model and for the average circulation a reduced-gravity model is applied. This model is able to reproduce the main features of the Alboran circulation (the well known Western Alboran Gyre, WAG, and the coastal circulation mode). The dispersion model is run off-line, using previously computed tidal and residual currents. The contamination patch is simulated by a number of particles whose individual paths are computed; diffusion and decay being modelled using a Monte Carlo method. Radionuclide concentrations may be obtained from the density of particles per water volume unit. Results from the hydrodynamic models have been compared with observations in the area. Several examples of dispersion computations under different wind and circulation conditions are presented

  8. Recovery of wild Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas in terms of reproduction and gametogenesis two-years after the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill Accident off the West Coast of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondol, Mostafizur Rahman; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Lee, Hee-Jung; Hong, Hyun-Ki; Park, Heung-Sik; Park, Sang-Rul; Kang, Chang-Keun; Choi, Kwang-Sik

    2015-12-01

    The Hebei Spirit oil spill in December 2007 at Taean off the west coast of Korea was the largest oil tanker accident in Korea. However, the impact of the spill on physiology of benthic animals remains largely unknown. Two-years after the accident, we compared reproductive effort and annual gametogenesis of the wild Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, residing at oil spill site with a control oyster population in Incheon Bay, North-West coast of Korea. Results showed that the oyster sampled from the oil spill site showed a significantly higher (279.0 mg standard animal-1, Pgametogenic pattern between the two populations, and most of the females of both populations spawned between August and September. During spawning season, egg mass of oysters determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) in the oil spill area was significantly higher (136.3 mg standard animal-1, P<0.05) than the control population (120.5 mg standard animal-1, P<0.05). The tissue protein level in the oysters at the contaminated area was significantly higher (102.6 mg standard animal-1, P<0.05) than the level measured from the control oysters (81.4 mg standard animal-1, P<0.05). The observed better biological performances of oysters at the contaminated site suggested their recovery of the physiological status to normal level after two years of the oil spill accident.

  9. Calibration and testing of IKU's oil spill contingency and response (OSCAR) model system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, M.; Aamo, O.M.; Downing, K.

    1996-01-01

    A computer modeling system entitled Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR), was calibrated and tested using a variety of field observations. The objective of the exercise was to establish model credibility and increase confidence in efforts to compare alternate oil spill response strategies, while maintaining a balance between response costs and environmental protection. The key components of the system are IKU's data-based oil weathering model, a three dimensional oil trajectory and chemical fates model, an oil spill combat model, and exposure models for fish, ichthyoplankton, birds, and marine mammals. Most modelled calculations were in good agreement with field observations. One discrepancy was found which could be attributed to an underestimation of wind drift in the current model. 21 refs., 4 tabs., 32 figs

  10. OSCAR2000 : a multi-component 3-dimensional oil spill contingency and response model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, M.; Daling, P.S.; Brakstad, O.G.; Singsaas, I.; Faksness, L.-G.; Hetland, B.; Ekrol, N.

    2000-01-01

    Researchers at SINTEF in Norway have studied the weathering of surface oil. They developed a realistic model to analyze alternative spill response strategies. The model represented the formation and composition of the water-accommodated fraction (WAF) of oil for both treated and untreated oil spills. As many as 25 components, pseudo-components, or metabolites were allowed for the specification of oil. Calculations effected using OSCAR were verified in great detail on numerous occasions. The model made it possible to determine rather realistically the dissolution, transformation, and toxicology of dispersed oil clouds, as well as evaporation, emulsification, and natural dispersion. OSCAR comprised a data-based oil weathering model, a three-dimensional oil trajectory and chemical fates model, an oil spill combat model, exposure models for birds, marine mammals, fish and ichthyoplankton. 17 refs., 1 tab., 11 figs

  11. BP fusion model for the detection of oil spills on the sea by remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Weiwei; An, Jubai; Zhang, Hande; Lin, Bin

    2003-06-01

    Oil spills are very serious marine pollution in many countries. In order to detect and identify the oil-spilled on the sea by remote sensor, scientists have to conduct a research work on the remote sensing image. As to the detection of oil spills on the sea, edge detection is an important technology in image processing. There are many algorithms of edge detection developed for image processing. These edge detection algorithms always have their own advantages and disadvantages in the image processing. Based on the primary requirements of edge detection of the oil spills" image on the sea, computation time and detection accuracy, we developed a fusion model. The model employed a BP neural net to fuse the detection results of simple operators. The reason we selected BP neural net as the fusion technology is that the relation between simple operators" result of edge gray level and the image"s true edge gray level is nonlinear, while BP neural net is good at solving the nonlinear identification problem. Therefore in this paper we trained a BP neural net by some oil spill images, then applied the BP fusion model on the edge detection of other oil spill images and obtained a good result. In this paper the detection result of some gradient operators and Laplacian operator are also compared with the result of BP fusion model to analysis the fusion effect. At last the paper pointed out that the fusion model has higher accuracy and higher speed in the processing oil spill image"s edge detection.

  12. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs

  13. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F. [Iles Balears Univ., Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands (Spain). Dept. of Chemistry

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs.

  14. Monitoring and pollution control: A stochastic process approach to model oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viladrich-Grau, M.

    1991-01-01

    The first chapter analyzes the behavior of a firm in an environment with pollution externalities and technological progress. It is assumed that firms may not purposely violate the pollution control regulations but nonetheless, generate some pollution due to negligence. The model allows firms two possible actions: either increase the level of treated waste or pay an expected penalty if illegal pollution is detected. The results of the first chapter show that in a world with pollution externalities, technological progress does not guarantee increases in the welfare level. The second chapter models the occurrence of an oil spill as a stochastic event. The stochastic model developed allows one to see how each step of the spilling process is affected by each policy measure and to compare the relative efficiency of different measures in reducing spills. The third chapter estimates the parameters that govern oil spill frequency and size distribution. The author models how these parameters depend on two pollution prevention measures: monitoring of transfer operations and assessment of penalties. He shows that these measures reduce the frequency of oil spills

  15. Model simulations of the drift and spread of the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkatesh, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the drift and spread of the Exxon-Valdez oil spill that occurred on March 24, 1989 are simulated using a modified version of the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behavior model. The model simulations show that the movement of the oil out of Prince William Sound and beyond is sensitive to the wind/ocean currents taken into account is three to four times that with either wind or ocean currents only. While 12-day drift of the spill containing the higher concentrations of oil parcels is in very good agreement with observations, model simulations show the presence of oil further to the south, albeit in lower concentrations. The lateral spread of the oil is also very well simulated by the model

  16. Site Selection and Resource Allocation of Oil Spill Emergency Base for Offshore Oil Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yunbin; Liu, Jingxian; Wei, Lei; Wu, Weihuang

    2018-02-01

    Based on the analysis of the historical data about oil spill accidents in the Bohai Sea, this paper discretizes oil spilled source into a limited number of spill points. According to the probability of oil spill risk, the demand for salvage forces at each oil spill point is evaluated. Aiming at the specific location of the rescue base around the Bohai Sea, a cost-benefit analysis is conducted to determine the total cost of disasters for each rescue base. Based on the relationship between the oil spill point and the rescue site, a multi-objective optimization location model for the oil spill rescue base in the Bohai Sea region is established. And the genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem, and determine the emergency rescue base optimization program and emergency resources allocation ratio.

  17. SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng; Xu, Qing

    2011-01-01

    Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National...... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to investigate the effects of different pollutants and environmental conditions on trajectory results. Also, a Texture-Classifying Neural Network Algorithm (TCNNA) was used to delineate ocean oil slicks from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. During...

  18. Algorithm and interface modifications of the NOAA oil spill behavior model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehr, W.; Wesley, D.; Simecek-Beatty, D.; Jones, R.; Kachook, G.; Lankford, J.

    2000-01-01

    The oil spill weathering program called ADIOS (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills) which is widely used by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been completely upgraded to include modified algorithms for evaporation, spreading, dispersion and emulsification. This paper was divided into three parts to outlined the changes in the existing algorithms implemented in the new version and to discuss the new algorithms for additional weathering processes and cleanup activities. The paper also described the new interface, which is the result of the NOAA/HAZMAT research in software usability and uncertainty. In the new model, evaporation uses a pseudo-component approach and dispersion includes the effects of sedimentation. Droplet size distribution and water content were considered as factors for new estimates for wave breaking and emulsification. Numerical techniques that allow non-uniformity in slick thickness have been used to determine spreading. The inhalation hazard resulting from benzene evaporation from oil spill surfaces can be calculated using new sub models which can also record the effects of cleanup. The submodels also provide options regarding the initial spill release. Users of the ADIOS 2 can enter ranges of selected input parameters that are likely to be uncertain during a spill. The ADIOS 2 program is also equipped with a library of more than a thousand oils and refined products. 34 refs., 1 fig

  19. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

  20. A neural network detection model of spilled oil based on the texture analysis of SAR image

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Jubai; Zhu, Lisong

    2006-01-01

    A Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) Model is investigated for the detection of spilled oil based on the texture analysis of SAR imagery. In this paper, to take the advantage of the abundant texture information of SAR imagery, the texture features are extracted by both wavelet transform and the Gray Level Co-occurrence matrix. The RBFNN Model is fed with a vector of these texture features. The RBFNN Model is trained and tested by the sample data set of the feature vectors. Finally, a SAR image is classified by this model. The classification results of a spilled oil SAR image show that the classification accuracy for oil spill is 86.2 by the RBFNN Model using both wavelet texture and gray texture, while the classification accuracy for oil spill is 78.0 by same RBFNN Model using only wavelet texture as the input of this RBFNN model. The model using both wavelet transform and the Gray Level Co-occurrence matrix is more effective than that only using wavelet texture. Furthermore, it keeps the complicated proximity and has a good performance of classification.

  1. Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-07-01

    Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Marine oil spill risk mapping for accidental pollution and its application in a coastal city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Dongdong; Liang, Bin; Bao, Chenguang; Ma, Minghui; Xu, Yan; Yu, Chunyan

    2015-07-15

    Accidental marine oil spill pollution can result in severe environmental, ecological, economic and other consequences. This paper discussed the model of Marine Oil Spill Risk Mapping (MOSRM), which was constructed as follows: (1) proposing a marine oil spill risk system based on the typical marine oil spill pollution accidents and prevailing risk theories; (2) identifying suitable indexes that are supported by quantitative sub-indexes; (3) constructing the risk measuring models according to the actual interactions between the factors in the risk system; and (4) assessing marine oil spill risk on coastal city scale with GIS to map the overall risk. The case study of accidental marine oil spill pollution in the coastal area of Dalian, China was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. The coastal areas of Dalian were divided into three zones with risk degrees of high, medium, and low. And detailed countermeasures were proposed for specific risk zones. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Propagation of uncertainties through the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II: operational application to the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Lecci, Rita

    2017-04-01

    . Uncertainty imprints in the oil mass balance components are also analyzed. This work is conducted in the framework of the REACT Project funded by Fondazione CON IL SUD/Brains2South. References Ciliberti, S.A., Peneva, E., Storto, A., Kandilarov, R., Lecci, R., Yang, C., Coppini, G., Masina, S., Pinardi, N., 2016. Implementation of Black Sea numerical model based on NEMO and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme for operational forecasting, Geophys. Res. Abs., 18, EGU2016-16222. De Dominicis, M., Pinardi, N., Zodiatis, G., Lardner, R., 2013. MEDSLIK-II, a Lagrangian marine surface oil spill model for short term forecasting-Part 1: Theory, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851-1869. Liubartseva, S., Coppini, G., Pinardi, N., De Dominicis, M., Lecci, R., Turrisi, G., Cretì, S., Martinelli, S., Agostini, P., Marra, P., Palermo, F., 2016. Decision support system for emergency management of oil spill accidents in the Mediterranean Sea, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009-2020.

  4. Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Alejandro; O'Hara Murray, Rory; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Beegle-Krause, C J; Inall, Mark; Sherwin, Toby; Siddorn, John; Wakelin, Sarah; Vlasenko, Vasyl; Hole, Lars R; Dagestad, Knut Frode; Rees, John; Short, Lucy; Rønningen, Petter; Main, Charlotte E; Legrand, Sebastien; Gutierrez, Tony; Witte, Ursula; Mulanaphy, Nicole

    2018-02-01

    As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Mathematical model simulation of a diesel spill in the Potomac River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, S.S.; Nicolette, J.P.; Markarian, R.K.

    1995-01-01

    A mathematical modeling technique was used to simulate the transport and fate of approximately 400,000 gallons of spilled diesel fuel and its impact on the aquatic biota in the Potomac River and Sugarland Run. Sugarland Run is a tributary about 21 miles upstream from Washington, DC. The mass balance model predicted the dynamic (spatial and temporal) distribution of spilled oil. The distributions were presented in terms of surface oil slick and sheen, dissolved and undissolved total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in the water surface, water column, river sediments, shoreline and atmosphere. The processes simulated included advective movement, dispersion, dissolution, evaporation, volatilization, sedimentation, shoreline deposition, biodegradation, and removal of oil from cleanup operations. The model predicted that the spill resulted in a water column dissolved TPH concentration range of 0.05 to 18.6 ppm in Sugarland Run. The spilled oil traveled 10 miles along Sugarland Run before it reached the Potomac River. At the Potomac River, the water column TPH concentration was predicted to have decreased to the range of 0.0 to 0.43 ppm. These levels were consistent with field samples. To assess biological injury, the model used 4, 8, 24, 48, and 96-hr LC values in computing the fish injury caused by the fuel oil. The model used the maximum running average of dissolved TPH and exposure time to predict levels of fish mortality in the range of 38 to 40% in Sugarland Run. This prediction was consistent with field fisheries surveys. The model also computed the amount of spilled oil that adsorbed and settled into the river sediments

  6. Comparative Risk Assessment of spill response options for a deepwater oil well blowout: Part 1. Oil spill modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French-McCay, Deborah; Crowley, Deborah; Rowe, Jill J; Bock, Michael; Robinson, Hilary; Wenning, Richard; Walker, Ann Hayward; Joeckel, John; Nedwed, Tim J; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2018-05-31

    Oil spill model simulations of a deepwater blowout in the Gulf of Mexico De Soto Canyon, assuming no intervention and various response options (i.e., subsea dispersant injection SSDI, in addition to mechanical recovery, in-situ burning, and surface dispersant application) were compared. Predicted oil fate, amount and area of surfaced oil, and exposure concentrations in the water column above potential effects thresholds were used as inputs to a Comparative Risk Assessment to identify response strategies that minimize long-term impacts. SSDI reduced human and wildlife exposure to volatile organic compounds; dispersed oil into a large water volume at depth; enhanced biodegradation; and reduced surface water, nearshore and shoreline exposure to floating oil and entrained/dissolved oil in the upper water column. Tradeoffs included increased oil exposures at depth. However, since organisms are less abundant below 200 m, results indicate that overall exposure of valued ecosystem components was minimized by use of SSDI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. NOAA-MMS joint Langmuir circulation and oil spill trajectory models workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simecek-Beatty, D.; Lehr, W.

    2000-01-01

    An NOAA/HAZMAT workshop was held in October 1999 which provided an opportunity for 14 spill response officials to discuss the scientific theory of Langmuir Circulation (LC) and to determine ways that it affects oil spreading, dispersion and transport. The workshop helped identify potential modifications to existing oil spill trajectory models. LC is a result of the interaction between wind-driven surface currents and waves. This interaction causes vortices in the surface mixed layer of the water body. The vortices are aligned in the general direction of the wind. The surface water between the vortices either diverges or converges. For cleanup purposes and remote sensing it is necessary to incorporate LC into most oil and spill trajectory and behavior models. It was determined it should be possible to build simple models to predict the intensity of LC since current knowledge suggests that LC is forced by wind and waves. A prediction equation would be of tremendous use to oil spill response personnel. 39 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  8. Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Cameron H; Paris, Claire B; Perlin, Natalie; Dornberger, Lindsey N; Patterson, William F; Chancellor, Emily; Murawski, Steve; Hollander, David; Daly, Kendra; Romero, Isabel C; Coleman, Felicia; Perryman, Holly

    2018-01-01

    We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

  9. Gas spill emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This video presentation was designed to explain the steps that should be taken in the event of a petroleum product spill on land, to keep damages and consequences to a minimum. The events that took place when an oil truck full of gasoline overturned and smashed into a house on a residential street were described to illustrate the principles involved. The following sequence of events and actions, based on general principles of bringing the situation under control during an emergency operation were depicted: (1) identification of spilled product, (2) assessment of the situation, (3) setting priorities and evacuating the endangered area, and (4) setting up a communication system. The fire fighters sprayed the area with foam because of the fire and explosion potential. Sand was used to contain the spill and to keep it out of the storm sewers. The spilled oil was recovered. Three other spill situations - a spill at a service station, a spill in a ditch, and a spill in a waterway - were also documented. It was emphasized that while it is not possible to establish a single set of rules and actions that would apply to all situations since no two accidents involving petroleum products are alike, the general principles are universal and can be applied in all situations. First priority to consider should always be human life, then property, then the environment

  10. Oil spill model coupled to an ultra-high-resolution circulation model: implementation for the Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korotenko, K.

    2003-04-01

    An ultra-high-resolution version of DieCAST was adjusted for the Adriatic Sea and coupled with an oil spill model. Hydrodynamic module was developed on base of th low dissipative, four-order-accuracy version DieCAST with the resolution of ~2km. The oil spill model was developed on base of particle tracking technique The effect of evaporation is modeled with an original method developed on the base of the pseudo-component approach. A special dialog interface of this hybrid system allowing direct coupling to meteorlogical data collection systems or/and meteorological models. Experiments with hypothetic oil spill are analyzed for the Northern Adriatic Sea. Results (animations) of mesoscale circulation and oil slick modeling are presented at wabsite http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/~cushman/adriatic/movies/

  11. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented...

  12. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nucler Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2014-01-01

    Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role...... for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented....

  13. The oil spill modelling in the Sea of Japan: application to the tanker 'Nakhodka' 1997 incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varlamov, S.M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Hirose, N.; Kawamura, H.

    1998-01-01

    In January 1997 the Russian tanker 'NAKHODKA' spilled into the Sea of Japan about 5000 tons of heavy fuel oil type C. Most of it reached the coast of Japan and damaged the environment. This incident forced the development of the operational system for the prediction of oil spills in the Sea of Japan. As a part of this system the model for oil spill modelling is presented. The modelled climatological sea currents were used in these simulators, generated by the three-dimensional primitive ocean circulation model with 10-minute horizontal resolution and 19 vertical levels. The model was forced by climatological atmospheric winds and heat fluxes. The wind currents in the upper sea layer were estimated by the wind data of ECMWF with 6 hours time and 0.5625-degree spatial resolution. The vertical structure of the total currents was interpolated using both wind driven currents and the climatological model currents data at the model levels. The oil spill was modelled with the particle tracking techniques. The model included the advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect and the parameterisation of oil evaporation, biodegradation and beaching. For the deep sea the parameterisation of diffusion depends from the stratification, taken from the ocean circulation model output. The results demonstrated the defined relation with the observed propagation of the oil along the coast of Japan and highlighted the most important directions for the model development. The main is the realisation of the model for the real-time simulations and forecasts of the ocean currents with the fine resolution in the upper layer of the Sea of Japan. (author)

  14. Modeling of response, socioeconomic, and natural resource damage costs for hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etkin, D.S.; French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.

    2002-01-01

    A study was conducted to determine the influence of oil type, spill size, response strategy and location factors on oil spill response costs, with particular reference to the cost benefits of the use of dispersants. Modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill in San Francisco Bay to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). Response costs, natural resource damages and socioeconomic impact were determined based on spill trajectory and fate. Mechanical recovery-based operations carry higher response costs than dispersant-based operations. Response costs for diesel and gasoline spills make up 20 per cent of the total costs, compared to 43 per cent for crude and heavy fuel oil spills. Damages to natural resources are higher for spills of toxic lighter fuels such as gasoline and diesel because gasoline has a greater impact on the water column with less shoreline oiling, resulting in more damages to natural resources. Heavier oils have a greater impact on shorelines and higher response and socioeconomic costs. Although socioeconomic costs varied by location, they tend to be greater than response costs and natural resource damage costs. Proportions of the different costs were described with reference to various spill factors. Socioeconomic costs are 61, 76, 45 and 53 per cent respectively for gasoline, diesel, crude oil, and heavy fuel oil spills. 27 refs., 23 tabs., 5 figs

  15. Cleaning up a salt spill : predictive modelling and monitoring natural attenuation to save remedial costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsang, B.; Shaikh, A.A. [EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Predictive modelling and monitoring natural attenuation to save remedial costs in cleaning up a salt spill were discussed with reference to a site located in central Alberta, as well as a pipeline break in 2002 from a corroded pipe which resulted in a large spill of produced water and oil. Remedial alternatives and an assessment of the site were presented. This included an electromagnetic survey in 2004, groundwater flow regime, soil and groundwater quality data, vegetation survey, and predictive modelling versus observed water quality. Photos and illustrations of the site from the air were provided. A conceptual salt leaching and transport model was proposed as a solution. Model calculation results were also presented. Last, the presentation discussed some important considerations for predictive modeling and next steps for the site. These included continued monitoring, implementation of a restoration plan and engagement of stakeholders such as Alberta Environment and the site landowner. tabs., figs.

  16. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  17. Modelling a deep water oil/gas spill under conditions of gas hydrate formation and decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, L.; Yapa, P.D.

    2000-01-01

    A model for the behavior of oil and gas spills at deepwater locations was presented. Such spills are subjected to pressures and temperatures that can convert gases to gas hydrates which are lighter than water. Knowing the state of gases as they rise with the plume is important in predicting the fate of an oil or gas plume released in deepwater. The objective of this paper was to develop a comprehensive jet/plume model which includes computational modules that simulate the gas hydrate formation/decomposition of gas bubbles. This newly developed model is based on the kinetics of hydrate formation and decomposition coupled with mass and heat transfer phenomena. The numerical model was successfully tested using results of experimental data from the Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate formation and decomposition are integrated with an earlier model by Yapa and Zheng for underwater oil or gas jets and plumes. The effects of hydrate on the behavior of an oil or gas plume was simulated to demonstrate the models capabilities. The model results indicate that in addition to thermodynamics, the kinetics of hydrate formation/decomposition should be considered when studying the behavior of oil and gas spills. It was shown that plume behavior changes significantly depending on whether or not the local conditions force the gases to form hydrates. 25 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  18. The effect of system modeling on the Fukushima accident evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Fontanet, J.; López, C.; Fernández, E.

    2015-07-01

    The Fukushima accident is becoming both a unique opportunity and a huge challenge for severe accident analysis. The OECD-BSAF project has articulated a good part of the modeling efforts conducted so far. Inside this project, CIEMAT has conducted forensic analyses of the Fukushima accident in units 1 through 3 with MELCOR 2.1 and it has postulated a set of accident scenarios consistent with data. Beyond specific results, sensitivity analyses on safety systems performance and prevailing boundary conditions have highlighted the need of conducting uncertainty analyses when modeling NPPs severe accident scenarios. (Author)

  19. MELCOR modeling of Fukushima unit 2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevon, Tuomo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2014-12-15

    A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 2 accident was created in order to get a better understanding of the event and to improve severe accident modeling methods. The measured pressure and water level could be reproduced relatively well with the calculation. This required adjusting the RCIC system flow rates and containment leak area so that a good match to the measurements is achieved. Modeling of gradual flooding of the torus room with water that originated from the tsunami was necessary for a satisfactory reproduction of the measured containment pressure. The reactor lower head did not fail in this calculation, and all the fuel remained in the RPV. 13 % of the fuel was relocated from the core area, and all the fuel rods lost their integrity, releasing at least some volatile radionuclides. According to the calculation, about 90 % of noble gas inventory and about 0.08 % of cesium inventory was released to the environment. The release started 78 h after the earthquake, and a second release peak came at 90 h. Uncertainties in the calculation are very large because there is scarce public data available about the Fukushima power plant and because it is not yet possible to inspect the status of the reactor and the containment. Uncertainty in the calculated cesium release is larger than factor of ten.

  20. A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé [Departamento de Engenharia Rural, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal (Brazil); Farias do Valle Junior, Renato [Laboratório de Geoprocessamento, Instituto Federal do Triângulo Mineiro, Campus Uberaba, Uberaba (Brazil); Fernandes, Luis Filipe Sanches [Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001–801 Vila Real (Portugal); Pacheco, Fernando António Leal, E-mail: fpacheco@utad.pt [Centro de Química de Vila Real, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001–801 Vila Real (Portugal)

    2017-05-15

    Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection

  1. A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé; Farias do Valle Junior, Renato; Fernandes, Luis Filipe Sanches; Pacheco, Fernando António Leal

    2017-01-01

    Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection

  2. Trophic mass-balance model of Alaska's Prince William Sound ecosystem, for the post-spill period 1994-1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okey, T.A.; Pauly, D.

    1998-01-01

    The Ecopath modelling approach for the Prince William Sound (PWS) ecosystem was described. The area is the site of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), the largest spill in U.S. history. 36,000 tonnes of crude oil spread throughout the central and southwestern PWS into the Gulf of Alaska and along the Kenai and Alaska Peninsula. The initial effects of the oil spill were catastrophic. The Ecopath modelling approach discussed in this report is aimed at providing a cohesive picture of the PWS ecosystem by constructing a mass-balanced model of food-web interactions and trophic flows using information collected since the EVOS. The model includes all biotic components of the ecosystem and provides a quantitative description of food-web interactions and relationships, as well as energy flows among components. The model can provide an understanding of how ecosystems respond to disturbances, such as oil spills. 216 refs., 74 tabs., 13 figs., 8 appendices

  3. Oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsouros, M.H.

    1992-01-01

    The world annually transports 1.7 billion tons of oil by sea, and oil spills, often highly concentrated discharges, are increasing from a variety of sources. The author discusses sources of oils spills: natural; marine transportation; offshore oil production; atmospheric sources; municipal industrial wastes and runoff. Other topics include: the fate of the spilled oil; the effects of the oil; the response to oil spills; and prevention of oil spills. 30 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  4. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Validation of the natural resource damage assessment model using historical observations on oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, D.; Rines, H.

    1995-01-01

    The Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) was developed by Applied Science Associates to simulate the fate and effects of oil and chemical spills into estuarine and marine environments. The US Department of the Interior has proposed the NRDAM/CME for use in Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) regulations under CERCLA. As part of the evaluation of model performance, the NRDAM/CME has been validated with observational data from case histories of oil spills, including the Exxon Valdez, World Prodigy, Mega Borg, Apex Houston and a number of others. Primarily, the data available for validation were of oil slick trajectory and coverage (e.g., overflight maps), length of shoreline oiled, area of marshes oiled, and a number of oiled birds recovered. Model performance was dependent on the accuracy of available wind and current data (the primary forces affecting fate) and bird abundances. Where these data sources were good (relatively well quantified), model performance was excellent. Results of the model simulations also provide an interesting sensitivity analysis and indications of relative effects of oil under various spill scenarios and conditions

  6. Numerical modeling of oil spill in the Patos Lagoon estuary; Modelagem numerica de derrames de oleo no estuario da Lagoa dos Patos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinho, Vivian; Monteiro, Igor Oliveira; Janeiro, Joao; Fernandes, Elisa Helena Leao [Fundacao Universidade do Rio Grande (FURG), RS (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Navigation is responsible for the input of 555.000 tons of oil per year in the marine environment. The recovery of the system can take dozens of years, affecting economical, ecological and social areas. The Patos Lagoon estuary presents wide importance and high susceptibility to accidents of oil spill. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the spread of oil spills using the MOHID model, which simulates both the hydrodynamics of the estuary and the oil dispersion considering the different processes involved. Wind and water level data from May 1 to August 18, 1999 were used to simulate a hypothetic accident of involving 2000 m3 of oil MF 380 during the passage of a cold front considering high and low river discharges. Results indicate that the oil dispersion is governed by the estuarine dynamic, which is controlled by the wind action and river discharge. Thus, during southwest wind the oil is retained within the estuary, and in situations of northeast wind the oil tends to leave the estuary and sometimes can reach the inner shallow bays. (author)

  7. Oil spill response engineering and planning. Technical completion report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, M.R.; Celikkol, B.; Goodwin, C.E.; Carrier, R.; McDonald, S.P.

    1991-12-01

    Tanker and barge traffic associated with the five petroleum product terminals along the NH side of the Piscataqua River represents a constant oil spill threat to the contiguous Great Bay System, NH, an estuarine reserve. Several serious accidents have in fact taken place in the 1970's and two small spills in 1990. A major factor is that the Piscataqua channel is subject to high velocity tidal currents. Should a spill occur, problems arise in knowing where the slick will move and how to control it using booms. In the project, these problems were addressed by developing procedures for using diversion booms in high speed current environments and in revising and implementing a previously developed Oil Spill Trajectory Model

  8. Three-dimensional Virtual Simulation of Oil Spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing Area Based on Emergency Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhe; Huang, Liwen

    the river of Yangtze River in Chongqing area is continuous curved. Hydrology and channel situation is complex, and the transportation is busy. With the increasing of shipments of hazardous chemicals year by year, oil spill accident risk is rising. So establishment of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and its application in decision-making has become an urgent task. This paper detailed the process of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and established a system of three-dimensional virtual Simulation of oil spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing area by establishing an oil spill model of the Chongqing area based on oil particles model, and the system has been used in emergency decision to provide assistance for the oil spill response.

  9. A Dynamic Remote Sensing Data-Driven Approach for Oil Spill Simulation in the Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jining Yan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In view of the fact that oil spill remote sensing could only generate the oil slick information at a specific time and that traditional oil spill simulation models were not designed to deal with dynamic conditions, a dynamic data-driven application system (DDDAS was introduced. The DDDAS entails both the ability to incorporate additional data into an executing application and, in reverse, the ability of applications to dynamically steer the measurement process. Based on the DDDAS, combing a remote sensor system that detects oil spills with a numerical simulation, an integrated data processing, analysis, forecasting and emergency response system was established. Once an oil spill accident occurs, the DDDAS-based oil spill model receives information about the oil slick extracted from the dynamic remote sensor data in the simulation. Through comparison, information fusion and feedback updates, continuous and more precise oil spill simulation results can be obtained. Then, the simulation results can provide help for disaster control and clean-up. The Penglai, Xingang and Suizhong oil spill results showed our simulation model could increase the prediction accuracy and reduce the error caused by empirical parameters in existing simulation systems. Therefore, the DDDAS-based detection and simulation system can effectively improve oil spill simulation and diffusion forecasting, as well as provide decision-making information and technical support for emergency responses to oil spills.

  10. A cascading failure model for analyzing railway accident causation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin-Tao; Li, Ke-Ping

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a new cascading failure model is proposed for quantitatively analyzing the railway accident causation. In the model, the loads of nodes are redistributed according to the strength of the causal relationships between the nodes. By analyzing the actual situation of the existing prevention measures, a critical threshold of the load parameter in the model is obtained. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed cascading model, simulation experiments of a train collision accident are performed. The results show that the cascading failure model can describe the cascading process of the railway accident more accurately than the previous models, and can quantitatively analyze the sensitivities and the influence of the causes. In conclusion, this model can assist us to reveal the latent rules of accident causation to reduce the occurrence of railway accidents.

  11. Oil Spill Cleanup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauble, Christena Ann

    2011-01-01

    Several classroom activities using a model of a seashore and an oil spill demonstrate the basic properties of oil spills in oceans. Students brainstorm about how to best clean up the mess. They work in teams, and after agreeing on how they will proceed, their method is tested by measuring the amount of oil removed and by rating the cleanliness of…

  12. Modeling fates and impacts for bio-economic analysis of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.; Etkin, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    The oil spill risks associated with four submerged rock pinnacles near Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay are being evaluated by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Oil spill modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The scenarios are hypothetical vessel grounding on the pinnacles. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The frequency distribution of oil fates and impacts was determined by first running each scenario in stochastic mode. The oil fates and biological effects of the spills were the focus of this paper. It was shown that diesel and crude oil spills would have greater impacts in the water column than heavy fuel or gasoline because gasoline is more volatile and less toxic and because heavy oil spills would be small in volume. It was determined that the major impacts and damage to birds would be low due to the high dilution potential of the bay. It was also noted that dispersants would be very effective in reducing impacts on wildlife and the shoreline. These results are being used to evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of removing the rocks versus the risk of an oil spill. The work demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method to estimate potential impacts that could be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 15 refs., 13 tabs., 11 figs

  13. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  14. Modeling atmospheric dispersion for reactor accident consequence evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Woodard, K.

    1982-01-01

    Atmospheric dispersion models are a central part of computer codes for the evaluation of potential reactor accident consequences. A variety of ways of treating to varying degrees the many physical processes that can have an impact on the predicted consequences exists. The currently available models are reviewed and their capabilities and limitations, as applied to reactor accident consequence analyses, are discussed

  15. Oil spill waste treatment after a ship accident from the point of view of the Kymenlaakso region; Oeljyvahinkojaetteiden kaesittely alusonnettomuuden jaelkeen Kymenlaakson alueen naekoekulmasta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hupponen, M.; Tanskanen, A.-L.; Luoranen, M.; Horttanainen, M.

    2007-07-01

    The aim of the study was to ascertain the treatment methods, disposal possibilities and capacities from the point of view of the Kymenlaakso region for oily waste that is collected from the shoreline after a large oil ship accident in the Gulf of Finland. The aim was to establish where the waste could be handled and how the oil spill waste could be processed during intermediate storage to make cleaning and disposal more effective. The focus of the study was on both solid oily waste from the shoreline and oily sea water. The beginning of the study focuses on waste disposal responsibility, i.e. whose responsibility the oily waste from a ship accident is. The principles of the technically suitable treatment methods of oil spill waste and limitations of the methods in handling the waste are presented briefly in the study. The volume of waste and the treatment methods applied in previous oil ship accidents that have influenced Finland or happened in the world are also mentioned in the study. The study introduces companies in the Kymenlaakso region, Ekokem Oy Ab in Riihimaeki and mobile treatment plants' possibilities to treat oily waste. Companies that are able to treat oily seawater are also introduced in the study from the point of view of the Kymenlaakso region. The information was collected by telephone and email from the companies' employees in the year 2007. In the Kymenlaakso region, approximately 10 000 t of oily organic matter and crushable equipment used in cleaning can be burned mixed with normal solid fuel in the fluidized bed furnaces of regional power plants annually. Approximately 1 200 t of homogenized oily organic matter can be burned annually in the rotary kiln of a Leca factory. The region's burning capacity will increase when the municipal solid waste incineration plant that was under construction during the study is ready and the waste can be burned on its grate. Soils polluted with vaporizable compounds can be treated with soil

  16. The states/BC oil spill task force - an international model for formulating and influencing public policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neel, J.; Bones, J.; Dimmick, E.; Kent, L.J.T.; Dunstan, R.; Sutherland, B.

    1993-01-01

    The States/British Columbia Oil Spill Task Force was established in 1989 to enhance spill coordination among the West Coast states and British Columbia, and to address a number of issues that became apparent during the Nestucca barge and Exxon Valdez oil spills. Task Force members are the directors of the oil spill prevention and response agencies in Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon, and Washington. The Task Force has become a national model for facilitating cooperation and building consensus between coastal states and provinces and their federal governments. In October of 1990, the task force issued a report containing a comprehensive set of recommendations addressing oil spill prevention, preparedness, and response. The group had achieved remarkable consensus, and many of the report's recommendations have been included in recent legislation enacted by the member states. The success of the task force's approach to regional coordination has also reduced the need for a proposed Pacific Oceans Resources Interstate Compact, which has been proposed to expand the states' role in areas of regulation that are otherwise federally preempted. The task force has become an effective mechanism for developing vigorous, productive relationships between government agencies, industry, and the public in both the United States and Canada. It has created important linkages between state provincial antifederal regulatory activities; for example, by providing input to Coast Guard and EPA rulemaking that implemented the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. The task force is continuing to advance its goals of promoting public policy on oil spill prevention; cooperative management of major spills by government and industry; protection of the states provincial rights and their natural and economic resources; and inter-governmental consistency in regulations adopted for oil spill prevention, contingency planning, and resource damage assessment

  17. Modeling of corium dispersion in DCH accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Q.

    1996-01-01

    A model that governs the dispersion process in the direct containment heating (DCH) reactor accident scenario is developed by a stepwise approach. In this model, the whole transient is subdivided into four phases with an isothermal assumption. These are the liquid and gas discharge, the liquid film flow in the cavity before gas blowdown, the liquid and gas flow in the cavity with droplet entrainment, and the liquid transport and re-entrainment in the subcompartment. In each step, the dominant driving mechanisms are identified to construct the governing equations. By combining all the steps together, the corium dispersion information is obtained in detail. The key parameters are predicted quantitatively. These include the fraction of liquid that flows out of the cavity before gas blowdown, the dispersion fraction and the mean droplet diameter in the cavity, the cavity pressure rise due to the liquid friction force, and the dispersion fractions in the containment via different paths. Compared with the data of the 1:10 scale experiments carried out at Purdue University, fairly good agreement is obtained. A stand-alone prediction of the corium dispersion under prototypic Zion reactor conditions is carried out by assuming an isothermal process without chemical reactions. (orig.)

  18. Predicting the weathering of fuel and oil spills: A diffusion-limited evaporation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotzakoulakis, Konstantinos; George, Simon C

    2018-01-01

    The majority of the evaporation models currently available in the literature for the prediction of oil spill weathering do not take into account diffusion-limited mass transport and the formation of a concentration gradient in the oil phase. The altered surface concentration of the spill caused by diffusion-limited transport leads to a slower evaporation rate compared to the predictions of diffusion-agnostic evaporation models. The model presented in this study incorporates a diffusive layer in the oil phase and predicts the diffusion-limited evaporation rate. The information required is the composition of the fluid from gas chromatography or alternatively the distillation data. If the density or a single viscosity measurement is available the accuracy of the predictions is higher. Environmental conditions such as water temperature, air pressure and wind velocity are taken into account. The model was tested with synthetic mixtures, petroleum fuels and crude oils with initial viscosities ranging from 2 to 13,000 cSt. The tested temperatures varied from 0 °C to 23.4 °C and wind velocities from 0.3 to 3.8 m/s. The average absolute deviation (AAD) of the diffusion-limited model ranged between 1.62% and 24.87%. In comparison, the AAD of a diffusion-agnostic model ranged between 2.34% and 136.62% against the same tested fluids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The Use of Numerical Modeling to Address Surface and Subsurface Water Contamination due to Fracwater Spills in Larry's Creek, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, C. A.; Arjmand, S.; Abad, J. D.

    2012-12-01

    Because of its relatively low carbon dioxide emissions, natural gas is considered to be more efficient and environmentally friendly than other non-renewable fuels. As a result of this, among other factors, in recent years natural gas has become one of the world's primary energy sources. In the United States, drilling to extract natural gas has substantially increased over the past few years. In the Marcellus Shale, unconventional gas is currently extracted by using two new techniques: horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Today, fracking fluids which have been applied as part of the hydraulic fracturing process to fracture the shale rock and release the gas, pose a major environmental concern. These fluids are highly contaminated with radionuclides and toxic metals and any exposure of this highly polluted water to surface water or soil could heavily contaminate the media. The area selected for the current study is the Larry's Creek, located in Lycoming County in Pennsylvania. Larry's Creek Watershed was adversely affected by coal and iron mines activities in the 19th century. Though, the water quality in this creek was considered to be good as of 2006. Recently, oil and gas drilling activities have raised concerns about the creek's water quality again. A major environmental hazard is the freshwater contamination by frac/flowback water. Drilling companies are using impoundments on site to keep fracwater, and to store and evaporate flowback water. However, these ponds may fail or leak due to construction problems and/or accidents. Close to Saladasburg, Larry's Creek's stream was observed running rich with clay in October 19, 2011. Historical measurements show very high turbidity during this period which has raised questions about water contamination by the gas industry activities in the upper stream of the watershed. An interstate watershed agency has reported spills in Wolf Run in different drilling sites in the Larry's Creek basin. The focus of this study

  20. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang Xinxin [Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

    2014-08-15

    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow Modeling is given and a detailed presentation of the foundational means-end concepts is presented and the conditions for proper use in modelling accidents are identified. It is shown that Multilevel Flow Modeling can be used for modelling and reasoning about design basis accidents. Its possible role for information sharing and decision support in accidents beyond design basis is also indicated. A modelling example demonstrating the application of Multilevel Flow Modelling and reasoning for a PWR LOCA is presented.

  1. Oil spills in mangroves: A conceptual model based on long-term field observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobi, C.M.; Schaeffer-Novelli, Y. (Sao Paulo Univ. (Brazil))

    1990-11-01

    A conceptual model is proposed for evaluating residence time of oil in mangrove environments. It assumes that, after oil has spread over a mangrove coastline, it remains in the environment by retention in the sediment. Removal is mainly in association with seaward particle export. Since detritus export depends on tidal flush, the area affected by an oil spill can be devided into sections parallel to the coastline having different removal rates increasing seaward (under little river flush and regular topography). 1 fig., 11 refs.

  2. Design of a Low-cost Oil Spill Tracking Buoy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.; Hu, X.; Yu, F.; Dong, S.; Chen, G.

    2017-12-01

    As the rapid development of oil exploitation and transportation, oil spill accidents, such as Prestige oil spill, Gulf of Mexico oil spill accident and so on, happened frequently in recent years which would result in long-term damage to the environment and human life. It would be helpful for rescue operation if we can locate the oil slick diffusion area in real time. Equipped with GNSS system, current tracking buoys(CTB), such as Lagrangian drifting buoy, Surface Velocity Program (SVP) drifter, iSLDMB (Iridium self locating datum marker buoy) and Argosphere buoy, have been used as oil tracking buoy in oil slick observation and as validation tools for oil spill simulation. However, surface wind could affect the movement of oil slick, which couldn't be reflected by CTB, thus the oil spill tracking performance is limited. Here, we proposed an novel oil spill tracking buoy (OSTB) which has a low cost of less than $140 and is equipped with Beidou positioning module and sails to track oil slick. Based on hydrodynamic equilibrium model and ocean dynamic analysis, the wind sails and water sails are designed to be adjustable according to different marine conditions to improve tracking efficiency. Quick release device is designed to assure easy deployment from air or ship. Sea experiment was carried out in Jiaozhou Bay, Northern China. OSTB, SVP, iSLDMB, Argosphere buoy and a piece of oil-simulated rubber sheet were deployed at the same time. Meanwhile, oil spill simulation model GNOME (general NOAA operational modeling environment) was configured with the wind and current field, which were collected by an unmanned surface vehicle (USV) mounted with acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) and wind speed and direction sensors. Experimental results show that the OSTB has better relevance with rubber sheet and GNOME simulation results, which validate the oil tracking ability of OSTB. With low cost and easy deployment, OSTB provides an effective way for oil spill numerical

  3. Future Oil Spills and Possibilities for Intervention: A Model for the Coupled Human-Environmental Resource Extraction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shughrue, C. M.; Werner, B.; Nugnug, P. T.

    2010-12-01

    The catastrophic Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlights the risks for widespread environmental damage resulting from petroleum resource extraction. Possibilities for amelioration of these risks depend critically on understanding the dynamics and nonlinear interactions between various components of the coupled human-environmental resource extraction system. We use a complexity analysis to identify the levels of description and time scales at which these interactions are strongest, and then use the analysis as the basis for an agent-based numerical model with which decadal trends can be analyzed. Oil industry economic and technological activity and associated oil spills are components of a complex system that is coupled to natural environment, legislation, regulation, media, and resistance systems over annual to decadal time scales. In the model, oil spills are produced stochastically with a range of magnitudes depending on a reliability-engineering-based assessment of failure for the technology employed, human factors including compliance with operating procedures, and risks associated with the drilling environment. Oil industry agents determine drilling location and technological investment using a cost-benefit analysis relating projected revenue from added production to technology cost and government regulation. Media outlet agents reporting on the oil industry and environmental damage from oil spills assess the impacts of aggressively covering a story on circulation increases, advertiser concerns and potential loss of information sources. Environmental advocacy group agents increase public awareness of environmental damage (through media and public contact), solicit memberships and donations, and apply direct pressure on legislators for policy change. Heterogeneous general public agents adjust their desire for change in the level of regulation, contact their representatives or participate in resistance via protest by considering media sources, personal

  4. Regional economic impact of oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heen, K.; Andersen, M.

    1994-01-01

    An approach is demonstrated of coupling an environmental model to input-output analysis which aims to quantify the regional economic impact of an environmental accident. The model is implemented with the data of a potential oil spill interacting with the salmon aquaculture industry in Northern Norway. The production loss in salmon aquaculture and the regional income impact is computed and discussed. The approach used in this article could be a model for estimating the regional socio-economic impact of environmental factors like water and air pollution. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 19 refs

  5. Oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.L.; Reed, M.

    1990-01-01

    Public awareness and concern for the potential short and long term impacts of oil spills on the marine environment has generally been high, particularly for regions of special ecological importance or where significant numbers of marine mammals and birds are present. This awareness was further heightened by the extraordinary number of recent large spills in coastal U.S. water: Exxon Valdez, Alaska; World Prodigy, Rhode Island; Presidente Rivera, Delaware; Rachel-B, Texas and American Trader, California. The occurrence of so many spills in a one year period is unprecedented in U.S. spill history. The legislative response to these spills has been immediate. New legislative initiative are rapidly being developed. Improved ways to organize spill response efforts are being devised and implemented. Funds are being allocated to further develop and improve spill response equipment and damage assessment methodologies. These spill events will have a significant impact in both the short and long term on oil exploration, development and transport in marine waters. They will result in major changes in management and operation of oil exploration and development. The purpose of this conference was to provide a forum for discussion of the changes which are currently taking place in oil spill legislation, management, and response strategies

  6. ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR UNSIGNALISED URBAN JUNCTIONS IN GHANA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed SALIFU, MSc., PhD, MIHT, MGhIE

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to provide an improved method for safety appraisal in Ghana through the development and application of suitable accident prediction models for unsignalised urban junctions. A case study was designed comprising 91 junctions selected from the two most cosmopolitan cities in Ghana. A wide range of traffic and road data together with the corresponding accident data for each junction for the three-year period 1996-1998 was utilized in the model development p...

  7. Identifying traffic accident black spots with Poisson-Tweedie models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debrabant, Birgit; Halekoh, Ulrich; Bonat, Wagner Hugo

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims at the identification of black spots for traffic accidents, i.e. locations with accident counts beyond what is usual for similar locations, using spatially and temporally aggregated hospital records from Funen, Denmark. Specifically, we apply an autoregressive Poisson-Tweedie model...... considered calendar years and calculated by simulations a probability of p=0.03 for these to be chance findings. Altogether, our results recommend these sites for further investigation and suggest that our simple approach could play a role in future area based traffic accident prevention planning....

  8. Oil Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... up. How Oil Harms Animals and Plants in Marine Environments In general, oil spills can affect animals and plants in two ways: from the oil ... up. How Oil Harms Animals and Plants in Marine Environments In general, oil spills can affect animals and plants in two ways: from the oil ...

  9. [Scientific basis of environmental health contingency planning for a coastal oil spill].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Min; Cheong, Hae Kwan; Kim, Jong Ho; Kim, Jong Hun; Ko, Kumsook; Ha, Mina

    2009-03-01

    This study presents a scientific basis for the establishment of an environmental health contingency plan for dealing with accidental coastal oil spills and suggests some strategies for use in an environmental health emergency. We reviewed the existing literature, and analyzed the various fundamental factors involved in response strategies for oil spill. Our analysis included data derived from Hebei Spirit oil spill and used air dispersion modeling. Spill amounts of more than 1,000 kl can affect the health of residents along the coast, especially those who belong to vulnerable groups. Almost 30% of South Korean population lives in the vicinity of the coast. The area that is at the highest risk for a spill and that has the greatest number of people at risk is the stretch of coastline from Busan to Tongyeong. The most prevalent types of oil spilt in Korean waters have been crude oil and bunker-C oil, both of which have relatively high specific gravity and contain volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and metals. In the case of a spill of more than 1,000 kl, it may be necessary to evacuate vulnerable and sensitive groups. The government should establish environmental health planning that considers the spill amount, the types of oil, and the distance between the spot of the accident and the coast, and should assemble a response team that includes environmental health specialists to prepare for the future oil spill.

  10. Strategic optimization model and area planning for oil spill response; Modelo de otimizacao estrategico e de planejamento de area para resposta a derramamentos de oleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Luiz Rodolfo Tinoco Aboim; Ferreira Filho, Virgilio Jose Martins [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Engenharia de Producao

    2004-07-01

    This paper deals with strategic aspect of the oil spill response problem, that is, with the problem of deciding where to locate adequate capability to respond to potential oil spills. In addition to locational considerations, the strategic oil spill response problem generally calls for decisions concerning the proper levels and types of equipment to be stockpiled, as well as for policies regarding the allocation of such capability among points of high oil spill potential. The oil spill optimization models can contribute with contingency plans that are prepared by responsible parties . It is described one model that address current legal requirements, in particular, the time-phasing of response, and the use of this model as a decision support by responsible parties. (author)

  11. Multiphase flow modeling of a crude-oil spill site with a bimodal permeability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillard, Leslie A.; Essaid, Hedeff I.; Herkelrath, William N.

    1997-01-01

    Fluid saturation, particle-size distribution, and porosity measurements were obtained from 269 core samples collected from six boreholes along a 90-m transect at a subregion of a crude-oil spill site, the north pool, near Bemidji, Minnesota. The oil saturation data, collected 11 years after the spill, showed an irregularly shaped oil body that appeared to be affected by sediment spatial variability. The particle-size distribution data were used to estimate the permeability (k) and retention curves for each sample. An additional 344 k estimates were obtained from samples previously collected at the north pool. The 613 k estimates were distributed bimodal lognormally with the two population distributions corresponding to the two predominant lithologies: a coarse glacial outwash deposit and fine-grained interbedded lenses. A two-step geostatistical approach was used to generate a conditioned realization of k representing the bimodal heterogeneity. A cross-sectional multiphase flow model was used to simulate the flow of oil and water in the presence of air along the north pool transect for an 11-year period. The inclusion of a representation of the bimodal aquifer heterogeneity was crucial for reproduction of general features of the observed oil body. If the bimodal heterogeneity was characterized, hysteresis did not have to be incorporated into the model because a hysteretic effect was produced by the sediment spatial variability. By revising the relative permeability functional relation, an improved reproduction of the observed oil saturation distribution was achieved. The inclusion of water table fluctuations in the model did not significantly affect the simulated oil saturation distribution.

  12. Modelling of oil spill frequency, leak sources and contamination probability in the Caspian Sea using multi-temporal SAR images 2006–2010 and stochastic modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Bayramov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this research was to detect oil spills, to determine the oil spill frequencies and to approximate oil leak sources around the Oil Rocks Settlement, the Chilov and Pirallahi Islands in the Caspian Sea using 136 multi-temporal ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar Wide Swath Medium Resolution images acquired during 2006–2010. The following oil spill frequencies were observed around the Oil Rocks Settlement, the Chilov and Pirallahi Islands: 2–10 (3471.04 sq km, 11–20 (971.66 sq km, 21–50 (692.44 sq km, 51–128 (191.38 sq km. The most critical oil leak sources with the frequency range of 41–128 were observed at the Oil Rocks Settlement. The exponential regression analysis between wind speeds and oil slick areas detected from 136 multi-temporal ENVISAT images revealed the regression coefficient equal to 63%. The regression model showed that larger oil spill areas were observed with decreasing wind speeds. The spatiotemporal patterns of currents in the Caspian Sea explained the multi-directional spatial distribution of oil spills around Oil Rocks Settlement, the Chilov and Pirallahi Islands. The linear regression analysis between detected oil spill frequencies and predicted oil contamination probability by the stochastic model showed the positive trend with the regression coefficient of 30%.

  13. The management of radioactive materials spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, M.T.; Ebenhack, D.G.

    1985-01-01

    The management and handling of a radioactive materials spill must be swift and effective to reduce or mitigate any adverse impacts on public health and safety. Spills within nuclear facilities generally pose less of a public health impact than spills in areas of public access. The essential elements of spill management include prior planning by agencies which may be required to respond to a spill. Any plan for the management of radioactive materials spills must be flexible enough to be applied in a variety of situations. The major elements of a radioactive materials spill plan, however, apply in every case. It is essential that communications be clear and effective, that the management of a spill be directed by a responsible party whose authority is recognized by everyone involved and that the actions, according to the principles discussed above, be taken to assure the safety of any injured personnel, containment and stabilization and clean up the spill and to verify through radiological surveys and sample analyses that the clean up is complete. Any spill of radioactive materials, minor or major, should be assessed so that similar spills or accidents can be prevented

  14. Modeling oil spills in the Med-Sea as a mean of early response in cases of oil leakages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodiatis, George; De Dominicis, Michela; Perivoliotis, Leonidas; Radhakrishnan, Hari; Lardner, Robin; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Soloviev, Dmitry; Tintore, Joaquin; Sotillo, Marcos; Drago, Aldo; Stylianou, Stavros; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Alves, Tiago; Kokinou, Eleni

    2016-04-01

    Modeling oil spills in the Med-Sea as a mean of early response in cases of oil leakages G. Zodiatis1, M. De Dominicis2, L. Perivoliotis3, H. Radhakrishnan1, R. W. Lardner1, N. Pinardi2, G. Coppini4, D. Soloviev1, J. Tintore5, M. Sotillo6 A. Drago7, S. Stylianou1, A. Nikolaidis1, T. Alves8, E. Kokinou9 and MEDESS4MS partners 1Oceanography Centre, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus 2Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy 3Hellenic Center for Marine Research, Athens, Greece 4Centro Euro- Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy 5SOCIB, IMEDEA, Palma de Majorca, Spain 6Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain 7IOI, University of Malta, La Valetta, Malta 83D Seismic Lab, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom 9Dept. of Environmental and Natural Resources, Technological Educational Institute Crete, Chania, Greece The risk from oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean is high due to the heavy traffic of merchant vessels for transporting oil and to the increasing coastal and offshore platforms related to the hydrocarbon exploration. This is especially true in the Levantine Basin following the recent widening of the Suez canal and the increase of the offshore deep wells for the exploitation of oil and gas. In order to select the optimal response measurements to assist the response agencies, oil spill models are used to provide predictions of the drift and weathering of the oil slicks. The establishment of the operational ocean forecasting systems at regional level, within the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service and in association with the national downscaled ones, provided the background for the implementation of a multi model integrated oil spill prediction system for the entire Mediterranean to support the maritime safety in near real time. This implementation was carried out in the frame of the medess4ms.eu project, which is dedicated to the response agencies of the riparian countries and to

  15. An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

    2013-04-01

    The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Fission-gas bubble modeling for LMFBR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostensen, R.W.

    1977-01-01

    The behavior of fission-gas bubbles in unrestructured oxide fuel can have a dominant effect on the course of a core disruptive accident in an LMFBR. The paper describes a simplified model of bubble behavior and presents results of that model in analyzing the relevant physical assumptions and predicting gas behavior in molten fuel

  17. Pigouvian penalty for oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohn, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    The imposition of ex ante taxes on expected spilled oil, in addition to ex post payments for damages under tort liability, would foster economic efficiency. This paper begins the analysis of the joint approach with the case in which Pigouvian taxes are used exclusively. A model is developed in which the volume of spilled oil causing environmental damage is reduced, first by spill prevention expenditures by shippers and then by clean-up expenditures by the government. The efficient Pigouvian tax on expected spilled oil equals marginal environmental damage which equals the net marginal cost of prevention which equals marginal clean-up cost. (Author)

  18. Modelling and analysis of severe accidents for VVER-1000 reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tusheva, Polina

    2012-01-01

    effectiveness of the procedures strongly depends on the ability of the passive safety systems to inject as much water as possible into the reactor coolant system. The results on the early in-vessel phase have shown potentially delayed RPV failure by depressurization of the primary side, as slowing the core damage gives more time and different possibilities for operator interventions to recover systems and to mitigate or terminate the accident. The ANSYS model for the description of the molten pool behaviour in the RPV lower plenum has been extended by a model considering a stratified molten pool configuration. Two different pool configurations were analysed: homogeneous and segregated. The possible failure modes of the RPV and the time to failure were investigated to assess the possible loadings on the containment. The main treated issues are: the temperature field within the corium pool and the RPV and the structure-mechanical behaviour of the vessel wall. The results of the ASTEC calculations of the melt pool configuration were applied as initial conditions for the ANSYS simulations, allowing a more detailed and more accurate modelling of the thermal and mechanical behaviour of the core melt and the RPV wall. Moreover, for the late in-vessel phase, retention of the corium in the RPV was investigated presuming external cooling of the vessel wall as mitigative severe accident management measure. The study was based on the finite element computer code ANSYS. The highest thermomechanical loads are observed in the transition zone between the elliptical and the vertical vessel wall for homogeneous pool and in the vertical part of the vessel wall, which is in contact with the molten metal in case of sub-oxidized pool. Assuming external flooding will retain the corium within the RPV. Without flooding, the vessel wall will fail, as the necessary temperature for a balanced heat release from the external surface via radiation is near to or above the melting point of the steel.

  19. Modelling command and control for emergency response scenarios: A marine oil spills perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisman, R.

    1993-01-01

    Commanders in emergency response scenarios have to rapidly formulate viable plans of action in the face of uncertainty, and on the basis of incomplete information and a constantly changing situation. Automated intelligent decision support systems may be a means of helping the commander to elaborate a plan, producing the operations order, and monitoring the plan's execution. The latter aspect would permit the system to advise a commander when key assumptions upon which the plan is based are no longer valid. Any such system will invariably be complex. The first step is the development of a conceptual model which will provide a sound structure to contain all of the requisite knowledge and information. The subject model is relatively simple and includes a metric for evaluating plans, a practical means of handling uncertainty, and a constraint language to capture expert knowledge precisely. Aspects of the model are illustrated using practical examples from the domain of maritime oil spill response. Results from several computer-based implementations of parts of the model are also discussed. 13 refs., 17 figs

  20. Mutual aid in oil spill response: The Alaskan north slope model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenzie, B.; Ingram, N.

    1993-01-01

    The Alaskan Arctic Region provides one of the world's most remote and challenging environments in which to mount an oil spill response. To facilitate the timeliness and appropriateness of the response, Alaska Clean Seas (ACS) and the operators of the North Slope oil fields have implemented a mutual aid concept for spill response. The concept is based upon each operator on the North Slope maintaining its own inventory of personnel [a spill response team (SRT)] and equipment that is available on short notice to respond to a spill. If the spill exceeds the responsible operator's resources, additional resources can be obtained from other operators and/or ACS through mutual aid. Individuals from diverse organizations are brought together in a mutual aid event. To allow different organizations to function effectively in a multi-organizational environment, a common management structure was required. The structure chosen for the North Slope was the incident command system (ICS). A key concern when discussing mutual aid is the provision of indemnification from liability for responders. For the North Slope, ACS and its member companies are indemnified when responding to a spill through provisions in the ACS charter and the ACS response action contract

  1. Reactor accident calculation models in use in the Nordic countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveten, U.

    1984-01-01

    The report relates to a subproject under a Nordic project called ''Large reactor accidents - consequences and mitigating actions''. In the first part of the report short descriptions of the various models are given. A systematic list by subject is then given. In the main body of the report chapter and subchapter headings are by subject. (Auth.)

  2. Accident Analysis Methods and Models — a Systematic Literature Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wienen, Hans Christian Augustijn; Bukhsh, Faiza Allah; Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2017-01-01

    As part of our co-operation with the Telecommunication Agency of the Netherlands, we want to formulate an accident analysis method and model for use in incidents in telecommunications that cause service unavailability. In order to not re-invent the wheel, we wanted to first get an overview of all

  3. Dynamic neural network modeling of HF radar current maps for forecasting oil spill trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, P.; Perez, J.; Kelly, F.J.; Bonner, J.; Michaud, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examined the concept of dynamic neural network (NN) modeling for short-term forecasts of coastal high-frequency (HF) radar current maps offshore of Galveston Texas. HF radar technology is emerging as a viable and affordable way to measure surface currents in real time and the number of users applying the technology is increasing. A 25 megahertz, two site, Seasonde HF radar system was used to map ocean and bay surface currents along the coast of Texas where wind and river discharge create complex and rapidly changing current patters that override the weaker tidal flow component. The HF radar system is particularly useful in this type of setting because its mobility makes it a good marine spill response tool that could provide hourly current maps. This capability helps improve deployment of response resources. In addition, the NN model recently developed by the Conrad Blucher Institute can be used to forecast water levels during storm events. Forecasted currents are based on time series of current vectors from HF radar plus wind speed, wind direction, and water levels, as well as tidal forecasts. The dynamic NN model was tested to evaluate its performance and the results were compared with a baseline model which assumes the currents do not change from the time of the forecast up to the forecasted time. The NN model showed improvements over the baseline model for forecasting time equal or greater than 3 hours, but the difference was relatively small. The test demonstrated the ability of the dynamic NN model to link meteorological forcing functions with HF radar current maps. Development of the dynamic NN modeling is still ongoing. 18 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  4. Comparison of Trajectories Generated by the NOAA Oil Spill Model to Trajectories Produced Using HF Radar-Derived Curents in Monterey Bay

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Margaret

    1997-01-01

    .... Trajectories produced by the NOAA/HAZMAT On-Scene Spill Model, using different combinations of surface currents and winds, were compared to trajectories generated using HF radar-derived surface currents...

  5. Forest Fires, Oil Spills, and Fractal Geometry: An Investigation in Two Parts. Part 2: Using Fractal Complexity to Analyze Mathematical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biehl, L. Charles

    1999-01-01

    Presents an activity that utilizes the mathematical models of forest fires and oil spills that were generated (in the first part of this activity, published in the November 1998 issue) by students using probability and cellular automata. (ASK)

  6. Having a New Pair of Glassess : Applying Systemic Accident Models on Road Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Yu-Hsing

    2007-01-01

    The main purpose of the thesis is to discuss the accident models which underlie accident prevention in general and road safety in particular, and the consequences of relying on a particular model have for actual preventive work. The discussion centres on two main topics. The first topic is whether the underlying accident model, or paradigm, of traditional road safety should be exchanged for a more complex accident model, and if so, which model(s) are appropriate. From a discussion of current ...

  7. Mathematical modelling of oil spill fate and transport in the marine environment incorporating biodegradation kinetics of oil droplets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina

    2016-04-01

    Oil biodegradation by native bacteria is one of the most important natural processes that can attenuate the environmental impacts of marine oil spills. However, very few numerical models of oil spill fate and transport include biodegradation kinetics of spilled oil. Furthermore, in models where biodegradation is included amongst the oil transformation processes simulated, it is mostly represented as a first order decay process neglecting the effect of several important parameters that can limit biodegradation rate, such as oil composition and oil droplets-water interface. To this end, the open source numerical model MEDSKIL-II, which simulates oil spill fate and transport in the marine environment, has been modified to include biodegradation kinetics of oil droplets dispersed in the water column. MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and weathering of oil spills following a Lagrangian approach for the solution of the advection-diffusion equation. Transport is governed by the 3D sea currents and wave field provided by ocean circulation models. In addition to advective and diffusive displacements, the model simulates several physical and chemical processes that transform the oil (evaporation, emulsification, dispersion in the water column, adhesion to coast). The fate algorithms employed in MEDSLIK-II consider the oil as a uniform substance whose properties change as the slick weathers, an approach that can lead to reduced accuracy, especially in the estimation of oil evaporation and biodegradation. Therefore MEDSLIK-II has been modified by adopting the "pseudo-component" approach for simulating weathering processes. Spilled oil is modelled as a relatively small number of discrete, non-interacting components (pseudo-components). Chemicals in the oil mixture are grouped by physical-chemical properties and the resulting pseudo-component behaves as if it were a single substance with characteristics typical of the chemical group. The fate (evaporation, dispersion

  8. Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.

    1986-01-01

    Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented

  9. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  10. SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

    2016-01-01

    The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam cres...

  11. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models

  12. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  13. Investigation of Zircaloy-2 oxidation model for SFP accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemoto, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: nemoto.yoshiyuki@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Chihiro; Kondo, Keietsu [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata, Ohaza, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki, 319-1195 (Japan); Nakashima, Kazuo; Kanazawa, Toru; Tojo, Masayuki [Global Nuclear Fuel – Japan Co., Ltd., 2-3-1, Uchikawa, Yokosuka-shi, Kanagawa, 239-0836 (Japan)

    2017-05-15

    The authors previously conducted thermogravimetric analyses on Zircaloy-2 in air. By using the thermogravimetric data, an oxidation model was constructed in this study so that it can be applied for the modeling of cladding degradation in spent fuel pool (SFP) severe accident condition. For its validation, oxidation tests of long cladding tube were conducted, and computational fluid dynamics analyses using the constructed oxidation model were proceeded to simulate the experiments. In the oxidation tests, high temperature thermal gradient along the cladding axis was applied and air flow rates in testing chamber were controlled to simulate hypothetical SFP accidents. The analytical outputs successfully reproduced the growth of oxide film and porous oxide layer on the claddings in oxidation tests, and validity of the oxidation model was proved. Influence of air flow rate for the oxidation behavior was thought negligible in the conditions investigated in this study. - Highlights: •An oxidation model of Zircaloy-2 in air environment was developed. •The oxidation model was validated by the comparison with oxidation tests using long cladding tubes in hypothetical spent fuel pool accident condition. •The oxidation model successfully reproduced the typical oxidation behavior in air.

  14. Bivariate Left-Censored Bayesian Model for Predicting Exposure: Preliminary Analysis of Worker Exposure during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Caroline; Banerjee, Sudipto; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Stenzel, Mark R; Sandler, Dale P; Blair, Aaron; Engel, Lawrence S; Kwok, Richard K; Stewart, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caught fire and exploded, releasing almost 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the ensuing 3 months. Thousands of oil spill workers participated in the spill response and clean-up efforts. The GuLF STUDY being conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is an epidemiological study to investigate potential adverse health effects among these oil spill clean-up workers. Many volatile chemicals were released from the oil into the air, including total hydrocarbons (THC), which is a composite of the volatile components of oil including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and hexane (BTEXH). Our goal is to estimate exposure levels to these toxic chemicals for groups of oil spill workers in the study (hereafter called exposure groups, EGs) with likely comparable exposure distributions. A large number of air measurements were collected, but many EGs are characterized by datasets with a large percentage of censored measurements (below the analytic methods' limits of detection) and/or a limited number of measurements. We use THC for which there was less censoring to develop predictive linear models for specific BTEXH air exposures with higher degrees of censoring. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical linear model that allows us to predict, for different EGs simultaneously, exposure levels of a second chemical while accounting for censoring in both THC and the chemical of interest. We illustrate the methodology by estimating exposure levels for several EGs on the Development Driller III, a rig vessel charged with drilling one of the relief wells. The model provided credible estimates in this example for geometric means, arithmetic means, variances, correlations, and regression coefficients for each group. This approach should be considered when estimating exposures in situations when multiple chemicals are correlated and have varying degrees of censoring. © The Author 2017

  15. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Qureshi, Zahid H

    2008-01-01

    .... This report provides a review of key traditional accident modelling approaches and their limitations, and describes new system-theoretic approaches to the modelling and analysis of accidents in safety-critical systems...

  16. Overall system design for the Spill Modelling Artificial Reasoning Technology system (SMART)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, S.

    1992-07-01

    A project was initiated to develop an intelligent computer system to assist spill emergency personnel and spill specialists in predicting and analyzing spills as well as their environmental impacts. The system, called SMART, is described, including system objectives, functionality, operational modes, system components and the functionality of each, and data communications between components. SMART is intended to provide the following five general functions: a user-friendly interface, comprehensive inference capability, analytical capability including the ability to predict concentrations and distances of a spill occurrence, knowledge management, convenient input, and multi-form output. The types of knowledge managed in SMART include the heuristic rules needed in the reasoning of spill prediction and impacts on the environment, as well as factual knowledge contained in existing external databases accessed through a database loader. More specifically, the heuristic knowledge comprises such topics as substance behavior, environmental interactions of substances, and the container or transportation vessel. The external databases include a chemical database on fundamental substance characteristics, an environmental database, and a spatial database managed in a geographic information system. 9 refs., 82 figs

  17. Les principaux accidents de déversements pétroliers en mer et la banque de données de l'Institut Français du Pétrole sur les accidents de navires (1955-1979 The Principal Offshore Oil-Spill Accidents and the Tanker Casualties Data-Bank(1955-1979 Compiled by Institut Français du Pétrole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertrand A. R. V.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Après avoir exposé les principaux problèmes posés par le déversement accidentel de pétrole en mer sous ses aspects qualitatifs et quantitatifs, puis rappelé un certain nombre de données tirées d'études antérieures, nous indiquons les résultats de l'activité documentaire de l'Institut Français du Pétrole dans ce domaine : -liste d'accidents ayant donné lieu à un déversement supérieur à 500 t et d'origines diverses (navires, plates-formes, oléoducs, installations côtières; - banque de données sur les accidents de navires. Cette banque concernant plus de 400 accidents survenus de 1955 à 1979 a permis d'établir plusieurs corrélations et de préciser quelques points. En particulier si le nombre d'accidents « principaux » ne semble pas avoir augmenté d'une façon significative au cours de ces dernières années ainsi que le déversement global dû aux accidents, celui-ci nous paraît avoir été sous-estimé dans les évaluations antérieures. II devrait s'élever à 500 000 t/an au lieu de 300 000 t/an, chiffre donné en 1973 par la National Academy of Sciences américaine et constamment repris depuis dans de nombreux rapports et publications. After describing the main problems raised by occidental offshore oil spills from a qualitative and quantitative standpoint and then reviewing various data token from previous reports, this article goes on to describe the results of documentary activity by Institut Français du Pétrole in this field - list of accidents resulting in a spill of more than 500 t and coming from various origins (ships, platforms, pipelines, coastal installations; - data bank on ship accidents. This data bank includes more thon 400 accidents occurring between 1955 and 1979. It reveals various correlations and specific points. In particular, whereas the number of « principal » accidents does not seem to have appreciably increased in the last few years nor has the overall amount thus spilled, these data

  18. A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M.

    1988-01-01

    A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs

  19. Boundary effects on car accidents in a cellular automaton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xianqing; Ma Yuqiang; Zhao Yuemin

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we numerically study the probability P ac of occurrence of car accidents in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model with open boundary condition. In the deterministic NS model, numerical results show that there exists a critical value of extinction rate β above which no car accidents occur, and below which the probability P ac is independent of the speed limit v max and the injection rate α, but only determined by the extinction rate β. In the non-deterministic NS model, the probability P ac is a non-monotonic function of β in the region of low β value, while it is independent of β in the region of high β value. The stochastic braking not only reduces the occurrence of car accidents, but splits degenerate effects of v max on the probability P ac . Theoretical analyses give an agreement with numerical results in the deterministic NS model and in the non-deterministic NS model with v max = 1 in the case of low β value region. Qualitative differences between open and periodic systems in the relations of P ac to the bulk density ρ imply that various correlations may exist between the two systems

  20. Use of flow models to analyse loss of coolant accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinet, Bernard

    1978-01-01

    This article summarises current work on developing the use of flow models to analyse loss-of-coolant accident in pressurized-water plants. This work is being done jointly, in the context of the LOCA Technical Committee, by the CEA, EDF and FRAMATOME. The construction of the flow model is very closely based on some theoretical studies of the two-fluid model. The laws of transfer at the interface and at the wall are tested experimentally. The representativity of the model then has to be checked in experiments involving several elementary physical phenomena [fr

  1. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  2. A model national emergency plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-07-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a result, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request

  3. A model national emergency response plan for radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a results, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request. 2 tabs

  4. Modelling surface radioactive spill dispersion in the Alborán Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Periáñez, R

    2006-01-01

    The Strait of Gibraltar and the Alborán Sea are the only connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Intense shipping activities occur in the area, including transport of waste radionuclides and transit of nuclear submarines. Thus, it is relevant to have a dispersion model that can be used in an emergency situation after an accident, to help the decision-making process. Such dispersion model requires an appropriate description of the physical oceanography of the region of interest, with simulations of tides and residual (average) circulation. In this work, a particle-tracking dispersion model that can be used to simulate the dispersion of radionuclides in the system Strait of Gibraltar-Alborán Sea is described. Tides are simulated using a barotropic model and for the average circulation a reduced-gravity model is applied. This model is able to reproduce the main features of the Alborán circulation (the well known Western Alborán Gyre, WAG, and the coastal circulation mode). The dispersion model is run off-line, using previously computed tidal and residual currents. The contamination patch is simulated by a number of particles whose individual paths are computed; diffusion and decay being modelled using a Monte Carlo method. Radionuclide concentrations may be obtained from the density of particles per water volume unit. Results from the hydrodynamic models have been compared with observations in the area. Several examples of dispersion computations under different wind and circulation conditions are presented.

  5. Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1989-11-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

  6. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  7. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negut, Gheorghe [National Agency for Radioactive Waste, 1, Campului Str., 115400 Mioveni (Romania)], E-mail: gheorghe.negut@andrad.ro; Catana, Alexandru [Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti, 1, Campului Str., Mioveni P.O. Box 78, 0300 Pitesti (Romania); Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel [Politehnica University Bucharest, 313, Splaiul Independentei, Sect. 6, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2009-09-15

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  8. Severe accident development modeling and evaluation for CANDU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negut, Gheorghe; Catana, Alexandru; Prisecaru, Ilie; Dupleac, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Romania as UE member got new challenges for its nuclear industry. Romania operates since 1996 a CANDU nuclear power reactor and since 2007 the second CANDU unit. In EU are operated mainly PWR reactors, so, ours have to meet UE standards. Safety analysis guidelines require to model nuclear reactors severe accidents. Starting from previous studies, a CANDU degraded core thermal hydraulic model was developed. The initiating event is a LOCA, with simultaneous loss of moderator cooling and the loss of emergency core cooling system (ECCS). This type of accident is likely to modify the reactor geometry and will lead to a severe accident development. When the coolant temperature inside a pressure tube reaches 1000 deg. C, a contact between pressure tube and calandria tube occurs and the decay heat is transferred to the moderator. Due to the lack of cooling, the moderator, eventually, begins to boil and is expelled, through the calandria vessel relief ducts, into the containment. Therefore the calandria tubes (fuel channels) uncover, then disintegrate and fall down to the calandria vessel bottom. All the quantity of calandria moderator is vaporized and expelled, the debris will heat up and eventually boil. The heat accumulated in the molten debris will be transferred through the calandria vessel wall to the shield tank water, which surrounds the calandria vessel. The thermal hydraulics phenomena described above are modeled, analyzed and compared with the existing data.

  9. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  10. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization

  11. Worldwide analysis of marine oil spill cleanup cost factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etkin, D.S.

    2000-01-01

    The many factors that influence oil spill response costs were discussed with particular emphasis on how spill responses differ around the world because of differing cultural values, socio-economic factors and labor costs. This paper presented an analysis of marine oil spill cleanup costs based on the country, proximity to shoreline, spill size, oil type, degree of shoreline oiling and cleanup methodology. The objective was to determine how each factor impacts per-unit cleanup costs. Near-shore spills and in-port spills were found to be 4-5 times more expensive to clean than offshore spills. Responses to spills of heavy fuels also cost 10 times more than for lighter crudes and diesel. Spill responses for spills under 30 tonnes are 10 times more costly than on a per-unit basis, for spills of 300 tonnes. A newly developed modelling technique that can be used on different types of marine spills was described. It is based on updated cost data acquired from case studies of more than 300 spills in 40 countries. The model determines a per-unit cleanup cost estimation by taking into consideration oil type, location, spill size, cleanup methodology, and shoreline oiling. It was concluded that the actual spill costs are totally dependent on the actual circumstances of the spill. 13 refs., 10 tabs., 3 figs

  12. Modeling of criticality accidents and their environmental consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, W.; Gmal, B.

    1987-01-01

    In the Federal Republic of Germany, potential radiological consequences of accidental nuclear criticality have to be evaluated in the licensing procedure for fuel cycle facilities. A prerequisite to this evaluation is to establish conceivable accident scenarios. First, possibilities for a criticality exceeding the generally applied double contingency principle of safety are identified by screening the equipment and operation of the facility. Identification of undetected accumulations of fissile material or incorrect transfer of fissile solution to unfavorable geometry normally are most important. Second, relevant and credible scenarios causing the most severe consequences are derived from these possibilities. For the identified relevant scenarios, time-dependent fission rates and reasonable numbers for peak power and total fissions must be determined. Experience from real accidents and experiments (KEWB, SPERT, CRAC, SILENE) has been evaluated using empirical formulas. To model the time-dependent behavior of criticality excursions in fissile solutions, a computer program FELIX has been developed

  13. Impact of sophisticated fog spray models on accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roblyer, S.P.; Owzarski, P.C.

    1978-01-01

    The N-Reactor confinement system release dose to the public in a postulated accident is reduced by washing the confinement atmosphere with fog sprays. This allows a low pressure release of confinement atmosphere containing fission products through filters and out an elevated stack. The current accident analysis required revision of the CORRAL code and other codes such as CONTEMPT to properly model the N Reactor confinement into a system of multiple fog-sprayed compartments. In revising these codes, more sophisticated models for the fog sprays and iodine plateout were incorporated to remove some of the conservatism of steam condensing rate, fission product washout and iodine plateout than used in previous studies. The CORRAL code, which was used to describe the transport and deposition of airborne fission products in LWR containment systems for the Rasmussen Study, was revised to describe fog spray removal of molecular iodine (I 2 ) and particulates in multiple compartments for sprays having individual characteristics of on-off times, flow rates, fall heights, and drop sizes in changing containment atmospheres. During postulated accidents, the code determined the fission product removal rates internally rather than from input decontamination factors. A discussion is given of how the calculated plateout and washout rates vary with time throughout the analysis. The results of the accident analyses indicated that more credit could be given to fission product washout and plateout. An important finding was that the release of fission products to the atmosphere and adsorption of fission products on the filters were significantly lower than previous studies had indicated

  14. Modeling the Spill in the Songhua River after the Explosion in the Petrochemical Plant in Jilin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Wenjing; Fu, Huijin; Skøtt, Karen

    2008-01-01

    An explosion in a petrochemical plant in Jilin in the northeast of China on 13 November 13 2005 was responsible for the discharge of large quantities of benzene and nitrobenzene into Songhua River. This endangered the water supply of Harbin city and influenced the daily life for millions of people....... The dispersion-advection equation was solved analytically and numerically and used to simulate the concentration of benzene and nitrobenzene in the Songhua River after the accident. Both solutions gave practically identical results. The main elimination process for both compounds was volatilization. The model...... results are quite close to the results obtained by measurements at monitoring stations. Arrival time of the pollutant wave, peak concentrations and end of the pollutant wave at Harbin and along the river were predicted successfully. The peak concentrations of nitrobenzene at Harbin were more than 30 times...

  15. Policy lessons from Exxon Valdez spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelso, D.D.; Brown, M.D.

    1991-01-01

    The wreck of the Exxon Valdez in Prince william sound in Alaska leaves in its aftermath grave policy questions about how much risk the public should be asked to bear and how much industry should be required to do to prevent oil spills and to clean them up when they occur. But because of industry's inadequate response to the Exxon Valdez spill, this catastrophe will provide few solid answers say the authors. The results of the accident were clearly catastrophic: 1,200 miles of polluted shorelines, 260,000 to 580,000 dead birds, decreased biological productivity, and disruption of life and business in scores of seashore communities. As with any accident, prevention and preparedness are the twin concepts that underlie most post-accident policy analyses. Actions since the accident by both Congress and the state of Alaska to prevent such spills in the future are useful, kelso and Brown note. The lack of effective technology to clean up large oil spills was dramatically demonstrated in this incident, they add, making a national research and development undertaking essential. Public involvement in establishing standards for spill prevention, response preparedness, and cleanup is vital, Kelso and Brown emphasize, because in the final analysis, it is the public that is hurt if the prevention and response systems break down

  16. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

  17. Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

  18. Modeling framework for crew decisions during accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukic, Y.D.; Worledge, D.H.; Hannaman, G.W.; Spurgin, A.J.

    1986-01-01

    The ability to model the average behavior of operating crews in the course of accident sequences is vital in learning on how to prevent damage to power plants and to maintain safety. This paper summarizes the work carried out in support of a Human Reliability Model framework. This work develops the mathematical framework of the model and identifies the parameters which could be measured in some way, e.g., through simulator experience and/or small scale tests. Selected illustrative examples are presented, of the numerical experiments carried out in order to understand the model sensitivity to parameter variation. These examples ar discussed with the objective of deriving insights of general nature regarding operating of the model which may lead to enhanced understanding of man/machine interactions

  19. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

    1985-01-01

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  20. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

  1. The accident consequence model of the German safety study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebschmann, W.

    1977-01-01

    The accident consequence model essentially describes a) the diffusion in the atmosphere and deposition on the soil of radioactive material released from the reactor into the atmosphere; b) the irradiation exposure and health consequences of persons affected. It is used to calculate c) the number of persons suffering from acute or late damage, taking into account possible counteractions such as relocation or evacuation, and d) the total risk to the population from the various types of accident. The model, the underlying parameters and assumptions are described. The bone marrow dose distribution is shown for the case of late overpressure containment failure, which is discussed in the paper of Heuser/Kotthoff, combined with four typical weather conditions. The probability distribution functions for acute mortality, late incidence of cancer and genetic damage are evaluated, assuming a characteristic population distribution. The aim of these calculations is first the presentation of some results of the consequence model as an example, in second the identification of problems, which need possibly in a second phase of study to be evaluated in more detail. (orig.) [de

  2. Global atmospheric dispersion modelling after the Fukushima accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, K.S.; Youm, M.K.; Lee, B.G.; Min, B.I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (Korea, Republic of); Raul, P. [Universidad de Sevilla (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    A large amount of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere due to the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. The radioactive materials released into the atmosphere were mostly transported to the Pacific Ocean, but some of them were fallen on the surface due to dry and wet depositions in the northwest area from the Fukushima nuclear site. Therefore, northwest part of the nuclear site was seriously contaminated and it was designated with the restricted zone within a radius of 20 ∼ 30 km around the Fukushima nuclear site. In the early phase of the accident from 11 March to 30 March, the radioactive materials were dispersed to an area of the inland and offshore of the nuclear site by the variations of the wind. After the Fukushima accident, the radionuclides were detected through the air monitoring in the many places over the world. The radioactive plume was transported to the east part off the site by the westerly jet stream. It had detected in the North America during March 17-21, in European countries during March 23-24, and in Asia during from March 24 to April 6, 2011. The radioactive materials were overall detected across the northern hemisphere passed by 15 ∼ 20 days after the accident. Three dimensional numerical model was applied to evaluate the dispersion characteristics of the radionuclides released into the air. Simulated results were compared with measurements in many places over the world. Comparative results had good agreements in some places, but they had a little differences in some locations. The difference between the calculations and measurements are due to the meteorological data and relatively coarse resolutions in the model. Some radioactive materials were measured in Philippines, Taiwan, Hon Kong and South Korea during from March 23-28. It inferred that it was directly transported from the Fukushima by the northeastern monsoon winds. This event was well represented in the numerical model. Generally, the simulations had a good

  3. Prediction of ambient concentration of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the Sea Empress oil spill using vapour and oil property models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carruthers, D.J.; Ellis, K.L.

    1997-09-01

    Modelling has been used to estimate concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylene (BTEX), 1,3 butadiene and total hydrocarbons due to evaporation of volatiles from the Sea Empress oil spill. This involved estimating the release rates of oil during each tidal cycle, calculating the spread and evaporation rate of the oil and then using the dispersion model ADMS to determine concentrations in air of the species. The calculations generally show that the highest concentrations occur directly above recently released oil (released within the last 12 hours). Concentrations on land were generally small as the predominant wind directions were seaward throughout the period when the oil spill would have been evaporating. However, total hydrocarbon concentrations measured at various land sites were significant during the spill period even when the wind was blowing away from the monitoring sites. The measured concentrations were also high for a further period after the spill when evaporation of the spilled oil would have decreased to small levels. This suggests that much of the measured hydrocarbons were emitted from other sources (e.g. the oil refineries). (author)

  4. Vertical structure of currents in Algeciras Bay (Strait of Gibraltar): implications on oil spill modeling under different typical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megías Trujillo, Bárbara; Caballero de Frutos, Isabel; López Comi, Laura; Tejedor Alvarez, Begoña.; Izquierdo González, Alfredo; Gonzales Mejías, Carlos Jose; Alvarez Esteban, Óscar; Mañanes Salinas, Rafael; Comerma, Eric

    2010-05-01

    Algeciras Bay constitutes a physical environment of special characteristics, due to its bathymetric configuration and geographical location, at the eastern boundary of the Strait of Gibraltar. Hence, the Bay is subject to the complex hydrodynamics of the Strait of Gibraltar, characterized by a mesotidal, semidiurnal regime and the high density-stratification of the water column due to the presence of the upper Atlantic and the lower Mediterranean (more salty and cold) water layers. In addition, this environment is affected by powerful Easterly and Westerly winds episodes. The intense maritime traffic of oil tankers sailing across the Strait and inside the Bay, together with the presence of an oil refinery at its northern coast, imply high risks of oil spilling inside these waters, and unfortunately it has constituted a matter of usual occurrence through the last decades. The above paragraph clearly manifests the necessity of a detailed knowledge on the Bay's hydrodynamics, and the related system of currents, for a correct management and contingency planning in case of oil spilling in this environment. In order to evaluate the range of affectation of oil spills in the Bay's waters and coasts, the OILMAP oil spill model was used, the currents fields being provided by the three-dimensional, nonlinear, finite-differences, sigma-coordinates, UCA 3D hydrodynamic model. Numerical simulations were carried out for a grid domain extended from the western Strait boundary to the Alboran Sea, having a horizontal spatial resolution of 500 m and 50 sigma-levels in the vertical dimension. The system was forced by the tidal constituents M2 (main semidiurnal) and Z0 (constant or zero-frequency), considering three different typical wind conditions: Easterlies, Westerlies and calm (no wind). The most remarkable results from the numerical 3D simulations of Algeciras Bay's hydrodynamics were: a) the occurrence of opposite tidal currents between the upper Atlantic and lower Mediterranean

  5. Dust resuspension and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humrickhouse, P.W.; Corradini, M.L.; Sharpe, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Plasma surface interactions in tokamaks are known to create significant quantities of dust, which settles onto surfaces and accumulates in the vacuum vessel. In ITER, a loss of vacuum accident may result in the release of dust which will be radioactive and/or toxic, and provides increased surface area for chemical reactions or dust explosion. A new method of analysis has been developed for modeling dust resuspension and transport in loss of vacuum accidents. The aerosol dynamic equation is solved via the user defined scalar (UDS) capability in the commercial CFD code Fluent. Fluent solves up to 50 generic transport equations for user defined scalars, and allows customization of terms in these equations through user defined functions (UDF). This allows calculation of diffusion coefficients based on local flow properties, inclusion of body forces such as gravity and thermophoresis in the convection term, and user defined source terms. The code accurately reproduces analytical solutions for aerosol deposition in simple laminar flows with diffusion and gravitational settling. Models for dust resuspension are evaluated, and code results are compared to available resuspension data, including data from the Toroidal Dust Mobilization Experiment (TDMX) at the Idaho National Laboratory. Extension to polydisperse aerosols and inclusion of coagulation effects is also discussed. (orig.)

  6. Cost accounting and oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, J.B.; Dufour, B.; Peck, V.P.

    1996-01-01

    Financial costs of an oil spill were considered. The control measures taken by Maritime Bureau Inc., in the San Juan oil spill were used as an example of how chaotic influences were minimized, how stability to the management team, structured under the Incident Command System (ICS) model, was provided, and how as a result of these actions, effective cost control was established. The importance of precise knowledge of operating costs was stressed as a basis for taking policy measures and for the evaluation of the short-term success of an oil spill clean-up operation. Staff responsibilities and management needs were described. Performance evaluation, as an important part of crisis cost accounting, was highlighted. Incident costs and response effectiveness comparisons were given for 13 oil spill incidents, including the EXXON VALDEZ affair. 4 tabs., 2 figs

  7. Tanker self-help spill recovery systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smedley, J B; Wainwright, J G; Ehman, T K

    1991-12-01

    An investigation was conducted of the circumstances in which oil spills occur from tankers at sea by analyzing available historical oil spill data. A data base of marine oil spills greater than 134 tonnes occurring from 1974 and June 1990, included in an appendix, was among the information analyzed. The analysis showed that marine oil spills of 5,000 tonnes and greater account for 39.4% of the accidents yet 94.7% of the total spilled quantity; 84% of those spills occur in vessels of 20,000 deadweight tonnes and larger. Of spills over 5,000 tonnes, 78.5% occur outside of harbor or pier areas where spill response equipment may not be readily available. Over 50% of spills are caused by groundings or collisions where the vessel crew might be able to respond in mitigating and controlling the outflow of oil. The review suggested that tanker self-help systems warrant serious consideration. Potential self-help systems are described, ranging from additives such as bioremediation, dispersants, and solidifiers to equipment such as portable pumps, booms, and skimmers. Candidate systems were examined in terms of their safety, ease of operation, practicability, and effectiveness. Their possible performance was then assessed for the case of major marine oil spills that have occurred in Canadian waters. Four systems are identified as potential candidates for further evaluation and possible implementation: internal oil transfer, hydrostatic loading, external oil lightering, and contingency planning. A system design is evaluated and its benefits and possible implementation are outlined, based on integration of the preferred attributes of the above four options. Recommendations for implementation are also provided. 28 refs., 6 figs., 33 tabs.

  8. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequential techniques, epidemiological techniques and systemic techniques, where the marine accidents are included in the epidemiological technique. This study compares the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART methodology and the 4M Overturned Pyramid (MOP model, which are applied to assess marine accidents. Furthermore, the MOP model can effectively describe the relationships of other factors which affect the accidents; whereas, the HEART methodology is only focused on human factors.

  9. Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

  10. A note on modeling road accident frequency: a flexible elasticity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couto, António; Ferreira, Sara

    2011-11-01

    Count data models and their variants have been widely applied in accident modeling. The traditional log-linear function is used to represent the relationship between explanatory variables and the dependent variable (accident frequency). However, this function assumes constant elasticity for the estimation parameters, which is a limitation in the analysis of the effects of explanatory variables on accident risk. Although interaction effects between explanatory variables have been studied in the road safety context (where they are normally assessed by logistic regression), no one has yet examined the possibility of using a flexible function form allowing non-constant elasticity values. This paper seeks to explore the use of the translog function usually used in the economics context to allow the elasticity to vary with the values of other explanatory variables. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the application of the translog function to accident modeling and to compare the results with those of the traditional log-linear function negative binomial (NB) model. The results show that, in terms of goodness-of-fit statistics and residual analysis, the NB model with the translog function performs better than the traditional NB model. Additional evaluations in terms of predictive performance, hotspot identification and uncertainty associated with the estimated values were taken into account. Although this study is exploratory in nature, it suggests that the translog function has considerable potential for modeling accident observations. It is hoped that this novel accident modeling methodology will open the door to the reliable interpretation and evaluation of the influence of explanatory variables on accident frequency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Need For Coastal Water Management Tool For Oil Spill Simulation In Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uba

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Ghanaian water bodies have been under threats recently ranging from illegal mining sand winning reclamation of water bodies for the purposes of human settlement pollution etc. Civil and mechanical installations on the coastal waters have increase due to the discovery of oil recently and such situations are not spared by oil spills. Oil spills are an inevitable consequence of the need to produce store and transport oil. The commercialization of oil production has placed Ghana among High-Risk Zones which are characterised by high traffic density and the presence of navigational hazards. Despite Ghanas awareness about oil spill accidents in both preparedness and response it is likely it will be compromised when any accident occurs as it has more pressing demands on finite funds and resources. This situation might place Ghana among ill-prepared countries against oil spill combat. An important part of contingency plan is the prediction of locations that are susceptible to oil after spillage. This can be done by the use of satellite information reviewing and comparing previous incidents laboratory work or by fine tuning models which as of now the country is not having despite all the precautions to prevent oil spills. When spill models are used properly they provide ecological economic and social benefits. Hence the need for such decision-making tool for Ghana to create an environment for the contingency plans to be tested validated and upgraded. Such exercises not only maintain and increase the skills of the response personnel but also lead to improvements and fine tuning of the plan as weaknesses and gaps are identified.

  12. Developing AN Emergency Response Model for Offshore Oil Spill Disaster Management Using Spatial Decision Support System (sdss)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogun, Abdul-Lateef; Matori, Abdul-Nasir; Wong Toh Kiak, Kelvin

    2018-04-01

    Environmental resources face severe risks during offshore oil spill disasters and Geographic Information System (GIS) Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) maps are increasingly being used as response tools to minimize the huge impacts of these spills. However, ESI maps are generally unable to independently harmonize the diverse preferences of the multiple stakeholders' involved in the response process, causing rancour and delay in response time. This paper's Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model to perform tradeoffs in determining the most significant resources to be secured considering the limited resources and time available to perform the response operation. The AHP approach is used to aggregate the diverse preferences of the stakeholders and reach a consensus. These preferences, represented as priority weights, are incorporated in a GIS platform to generate Environmental sensitivity risk (ESR) maps. The ESR maps provide a common operational platform and consistent situational awareness for the multiple parties involved in the emergency response operation thereby minimizing discord among the response teams and saving the most valuable resources.

  13. A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

    2014-01-01

    A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.

  14. Identification of spilled oils by NIR spectroscopy technology based on KPCA and LSSVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ailing; Bi, Weihong

    2011-08-01

    Oil spills on the sea surface are seen relatively often with the development of the petroleum exploitation and transportation of the sea. Oil spills are great threat to the marine environment and the ecosystem, thus the oil pollution in the ocean becomes an urgent topic in the environmental protection. To develop the oil spill accident treatment program and track the source of the spilled oils, a novel qualitative identification method combined Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) was proposed. The proposed method adapt Fourier transform NIR spectrophotometer to collect the NIR spectral data of simulated gasoline, diesel fuel and kerosene oil spills samples and do some pretreatments to the original spectrum. We use the KPCA algorithm which is an extension of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using techniques of kernel methods to extract nonlinear features of the preprocessed spectrum. Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a powerful methodology for solving spectral classification tasks in chemometrics. LSSVM are reformulations to the standard SVMs which lead to solving a system of linear equations. So a LSSVM multiclass classification model was designed which using Error Correcting Output Code (ECOC) method borrowing the idea of error correcting codes used for correcting bit errors in transmission channels. The most common and reliable approach to parameter selection is to decide on parameter ranges, and to then do a grid search over the parameter space to find the optimal model parameters. To test the proposed method, 375 spilled oil samples of unknown type were selected to study. The optimal model has the best identification capabilities with the accuracy of 97.8%. Experimental results show that the proposed KPCA plus LSSVM qualitative analysis method of near infrared spectroscopy has good recognition result, which could work as a new method for rapid identification of spilled oils.

  15. Heat and fluid flow in accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2. Accident scenario based on thermodynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruyama, Shigenao

    2012-01-01

    An accident scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 2 is analyzed from the data open to the public. Phase equilibrium process model was introduced that the vapor and water are at saturation point in the vessels. Proposed accident scenario agrees very well with the data of the plant parameters obtained just after the accident. The estimation describes that the rupture time of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was at 22:50 14/3/2011. The estimation shows that the rupture time of the pressure containment vessel (RCP) was at 7:40 15/3/2011. These estimations are different from the ones by TEPCO, however; many measured evidences show good accordance with the present scenario. (author)

  16. Impact of oil spill from ship on air quality around coastal regions of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shon, Zang-Ho; Song, Sang-Keun

    2010-05-01

    Regional air quality around coastal regions, where regular maritime traffic emissions from cargo, other commercial, fishing and military vessels are significantly active, can be affected by their direct emission of primary air pollutants (NOx, SO2, particulate matter (PM), etc.). For instance, harbor traffic exerted an important impact on NO2, SO2, O3, and PM levels. In addition, regional air quality around coastal regions is also affected by oil spill caused by ship accident in the coast. On 7 Dec., 2007, a barge carrying a crane hit the oil tanker MT Hebei Sprit off the west coast of the Republic of Korea, Yellow Sea (approximately 10 km off the coast), at 0700 local time, causing the spill of total estimated 12,547 tons of Iranian heavy (IH) and Kuwait Export (KE) crude oils. Since then, oil began coming on shore late in the night on 7 Dec. More than 150 km of coastline had been identified as being impacted by 17 Dec. Much of the affected area is part of the Taean-gun National Park and the nearest coastal city to spilled area is Taean. On 8 Dec., the flow of oil from the tanker was stopped when the holes were patched. The accident is the worst oil spill in Korea and the spill area is about one-third of the size of the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The short- and long-term effects of oil spill on marine environment have been numerously studied, not on atmospheric environment. In this study, the air quality impact near spilled area by the evaporation of hydrocarbons from the oil spill is studied in detail. The evaporation rates of the volatile fractions of the crude oils released by oil spill were estimated based on their mole fractions of crude oils and mass transfer coefficients. Based on a molecular diffusion process, the flux of spilled oil component (Fivap, mol m-2 s-1) can be expressed as follows: Fivap = Kivap(Civap - C∞vap) (1) where Civap is concentration (mol m-3) of a component i of crude oil vapor in the air at the oil-air interface; C∞vap is the

  17. Modeling photosynthesis of Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using Bayesian inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Wei; Biber, Patrick D; Peterson, Mark S; Gong Chongfeng

    2012-01-01

    To study the impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on photosynthesis of coastal salt marsh plants in Mississippi, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model based on field measurements collected from July 2010 to November 2011. We sampled three locations in Davis Bayou, Mississippi (30.375°N, 88.790°W) representative of a range of oil spill impacts. Measured photosynthesis was negative (respiration only) at the heavily oiled location in July 2010 only, and rates started to increase by August 2010. Photosynthesis at the medium oiling location was lower than at the control location in July 2010 and it continued to decrease in September 2010. During winter 2010–2011, the contrast between the control and the two impacted locations was not as obvious as in the growing season of 2010. Photosynthesis increased through spring 2011 at the three locations and decreased starting with October at the control location and a month earlier (September) at the impacted locations. Using the field data, we developed an HB model. The model simulations agreed well with the measured photosynthesis, capturing most of the variability of the measured data. On the basis of the posteriors of the parameters, we found that air temperature and photosynthetic active radiation positively influenced photosynthesis whereas the leaf stress level negatively affected photosynthesis. The photosynthesis rates at the heavily impacted location had recovered to the status of the control location about 140 days after the initial impact, while the impact at the medium impact location was never severe enough to make photosynthesis significantly lower than that at the control location over the study period. The uncertainty in modeling photosynthesis rates mainly came from the individual and micro-site scales, and to a lesser extent from the leaf scale. (letter)

  18. Development of a parametric containment event tree model for a severe BWR accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okkonen, T [OTO-Consulting Ay, Helsinki (Finland)

    1995-04-01

    A containment event tree (CET) is built for analysis of severe accidents at the TVO boiling water reactor (BWR) units. Parametric models of severe accident progression and fission product behaviour are developed and integrated in order to construct a compact and self-contained Level 2 PSA model. The model can be easily updated to correspond to new research results. The analyses of the study are limited to severe accidents starting from full-power operation and leading to core melting, and are focused mainly on the use and effects of the dedicated severe accident management (SAM) systems. Severe accident progression from eight plant damage states (PDS), involving different pre-core-damage accident evolution, is examined, but the inclusion of their relative or absolute probabilities, by integration with Level 1, is deferred to integral safety assessments. (33 refs., 5 figs., 7 tabs.).

  19. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  20. Development of A Methodology for Assessing Various Accident Management Strategies Using Decision Tree Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Nam Yeong; Kim, Jin Tae; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor) analysis is to evaluate operational accidents in full power and low power operation by using PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) technologies. The awareness of the importance of ASP analysis has been on rise. The methodology for ASP analysis has been developed in Korea, KINS (Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has managed KINS-ASP program since it was developed. In this study, we applied ASP analysis into operational accidents in full power and low power operation to quantify CCDP (Conditional Core Damage Probability). To reflect these 2 cases into PRA model, we modified fault trees and event trees of the existing PRA model. Also, we suggest the ASP regulatory system in the conclusion. In this study, we reviewed previous studies for ASP analysis. Based on it, we applied it into operational accidents in full power and low power operation. CCDP of these 2 cases are 1.195E-06 and 2.261E-03. Unlike other countries, there is no regulatory basis of ASP analysis in Korea. ASP analysis could detect the risk by assessing the existing operational accidents. ASP analysis can improve the safety of nuclear power plant by detecting, reviewing the operational accidents, and finally removing potential risk. Operator have to notify regulatory institute of operational accident before operator takes recovery work for the accident. After follow-up accident, they have to check precursors in data base to find similar accident.

  1. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  2. Action in case of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matijasic, A.

    1961-01-01

    This report describes the radiation accidents that occurred in the Institute, causes of these accidents and actions undertaken to eliminate the consequences as well as losses and cost estimated. The accidents were as follows: explosion of the uranium mixture; contamination due to spill of P 32 ; contamination due to spilling of Sr 89 solution; spilling of I 131 in the cell for radioactive iodine production; contamination of the floor by P 32 ; contamination of the platform below the water shield at the RA reactor and during cleaning of the vertical channels; contamination due to spilling of Sr 89 solution; contamination of cells for I 131 and P 32 and the cell for isotopes packaging; contamination of the floor by non-identified isotope mixture; contamination of the cell for I'1 31 production by irradiated Tl powder; contamination by La 140 powder; contamination of the cell for isotopes packaging

  3. Statistical modelling of the frequency and severity of road accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janstrup, Kira Hyldekær

    -reporting. The problem of under-reporting is not unique for traffic accidents as severe under-reporting is a challenge in many other fields of incident reporting. In other incidents fields with intended or unintended harm, research has investigated the behavioural reasons for why people choose to report an incident......Under-reporting of traffic accidents is a well-discussed subject in traffic safety and it is well-known that the degree of under-reporting of traffic accidents is quite high in many countries. Nevertheless, very little literature has been made to investigate what causes the high degree of under...... on the service quality within the police none have looked at the service quality specific for the handling of traffic accidents.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to investigate the extent of under-reporting of traffic accidents in Denmark and trace the under-reporting systematically. As something new...

  4. Fuel models and results from the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS TMI-2 accident calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwegler, E.C.; Maudlin, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    A brief description of several fuel models used in the TRAC-PF1/MIMAS analysis of the TMI-2 accident is presented, and some of the significant fuel-rod behavior results from this analysis are given. Peak fuel-rod temperatures, oxidation heat production, and embrittlement and failure behavior calculated for the TMI-2 accident are discussed. Other aspects of fuel behavior, such as cladding ballooning and fuel-cladding eutectic formation, were found not to significantly affect the accident progression

  5. Spill sparks reform, leaves lasting scar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notthoff, A.

    1991-01-01

    Blackened shorelines, oil-soaked birds, and dying sea otters - images that riveted the Exxon Valdez oil spill on the public consciousness - also generated an outcry for action, Notthoff observes. No other spill caught the attention of the American public and prompted public-policy reform at the national, state, and local level like the Exxon Valdez, she says. Within two years of the accident, Congress had dusted off and passed oil-spill legislation that had been deadlocked for 10 years, and seven states had passed new oil-spill laws. The poor record of cleanup following the Exxon Valdez spill is due to the limits of technology, the physical conditions at the time of the accident, and a chronic inability to mobilize people and equipment under the chaotic circumstances that surround a major emergency, Notthoff says. In addition, there also was a failure to enforce existing response plans. Prevention is the best cure, and some of the new laws address this issue, she notes. They also tighten up requirements for response planning and encourage research into improved clean-up technology. What they fail to do Notthoff emphasizes, is seek to reduce tanker traffic by encouraging improved energy efficiency, conservation, and alternative energy technologies

  6. The causing model of accidents and preventing system of small mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, S.; Zhang, L.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y. [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2008-06-15

    From an analysis of data on fatal accidents in small coal mines in a southern region of China over a period of three years, the time and type of accidents was discussed by applying statistical methods. It is shown that accidents frequently occur at the end of spring and all through summer. Roof accidents and gas disasters constitute severe accidents and traffic accidents are also important. It was found that most accidents are caused by dangerous behaviour of personnel and the unsafe state of equipment combined with economic interest. The three-factor causing model (TFC model) was proposed. Unsafe behaviour is a direct cause influenced by staff and workers while the unsafe nature of equipment is an indirect cause of accidents influence by natural conditions and the level of technical equipment in the mines. A system of accident prevention in small coal collieries was established with the TFC model. In this, scientific management is an important factor. 13 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook; Yoon, Ho Joon

    2016-01-01

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results

  8. Sequence Tree Modeling for Combined Accident and Feed-and-Bleed Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2016-05-15

    In order to address this issue, this study suggests the sequence tree model to analyze accident sequence systematically. Using the sequence tree model, all possible scenarios which need a specific safety action to prevent the core damage can be identified and success conditions of safety action under complicated situation such as combined accident will be also identified. Sequence tree is branch model to divide plant condition considering the plant dynamics. Since sequence tree model can reflect the plant dynamics, arising from interaction of different accident timing and plant condition and from the interaction between the operator action, mitigation system, and the indicators for operation, sequence tree model can be used to develop the dynamic event tree model easily. Target safety action for this study is a feed-and-bleed (F and B) operation. A F and B operation directly cools down the reactor cooling system (RCS) using the primary cooling system when residual heat removal by the secondary cooling system is not available. In this study, a TLOFW accident and a TLOFW accident with LOCA were the target accidents. Based on the conventional PSA model and indicators, the sequence tree model for a TLOFW accident was developed. If sampling analysis is performed, practical accident sequences can be identified based on the sequence analysis. If a realistic distribution for the variables can be obtained for sampling analysis, much more realistic accident sequences can be described. Moreover, if the initiating event frequency under a combined accident can be quantified, the sequence tree model can translate into a dynamic event tree model based on the sampling analysis results.

  9. Modeling of pipe break accident in a district heating system using RELAP5 computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliatka, A.; Valinčius, M.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability of a district heat supply system is a very important factor. However, accidents are inevitable and they occur due to various reasons, therefore it is necessary to have possibility to evaluate the consequences of possible accidents. This paper demonstrated the capabilities of developed district heating network model (for RELAP5 code) to analyze dynamic processes taking place in the network. A pipe break in a water supply line accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) heating network is presented in this paper. The results of this case study were used to demonstrate a possibility of the break location identification by pressure decrease propagation in the network. -- Highlights: ► Nuclear reactor accident analysis code RELAP5 was applied for accident analysis in a district heating network. ► Pipe break accident scenario in Kaunas city (Lithuania) district heating network has been analyzed. ► An innovative method of pipe break location identification by pressure-time data is proposed.

  10. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  11. Risk/benefits of fast breeder reactors societal risks and accident modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1979-01-01

    A special feature of the Fast Breeder Reactor is the possibility of fuel vaporisation, hence accidents may have more severe consequences than thermal reactors. This article discusses the process of accident modelling, the identification and assessment of risk, not yet incurred. 10 refs

  12. Oil spill analysis in Sao Sebastiao Channel. Sao Paulo (SP) Brazil, from 1974 to 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poffo, Iris R.F.; Midaglia, Carmen L.; Heitzmann, Sueli R.; Caetano, Nelson; Cantao, Renato F.; Pompeia, Sergio L.; Eysink, Geraldo G.; Nakasaki, Akira

    1996-01-01

    Environmental accident files from PETROBRAS and CETEBS were studied. A total of 210 oil spill accidents were registered in Sao Sebastiao region (1974-1994), the oil reached the sea in 191 cases. The analysis was carried out by: cause of the accident, kind and amount of oil spilled, displacement of the oil spot, affected areas, dispersive used, amount of the oil and contaminated sands removes, waste disposal, and the relation between the wind direction intensity and the displacement of oil spot

  13. Tracking an Oil Tanker Collision and Spilled Oils in the East China Sea Using Multisensor Day and Night Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shaojie; Lu, Yingcheng; Liu, Yongxue; Wang, Mengqiu; Hu, Chuanmin

    2018-04-01

    Satellite remote sensing is well known to play a critical role in monitoring marine accidents such as oil spills, yet the recent SANCHI oil tanker collision event in January 2018 in the East China Sea indicates that traditional techniques using synthetic aperture radar or daytime optical imagery could not provide timely and adequate coverage. In this study, we show the unprecedented value of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Nightfire product and Day/Night Band data in tracking the oil tanker's drifting pathway and locations when all other means are not as effective for the same purpose. Such pathway and locations can also be reproduced with a numerical model, with root-mean-square error of days of the tanker's sinking reveals much larger oil spill area (>350 km2) than previous reports, the impact of the spilled condensate oil on the marine environment requires further research.

  14. Improving a prediction system for oil spills in the Yellow Sea: effect of tides on subtidal flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Chang-Sin; Cho, Yang-Ki; Choi, Byoung-Ju; Jung, Kyung Tae; You, Sung Hyup

    2013-03-15

    A multi-nested prediction system for the Yellow Sea using drifter trajectory simulations was developed to predict the movements of an oil spill after the MV Hebei Spirit accident. The speeds of the oil spill trajectories predicted by the model without tidal forcing were substantially faster than the observations; however, predictions taking into account the tides, including both tidal cycle and subtidal periods, were satisfactorily improved. Subtidal flow in the simulation without tides was stronger than in that with tides because of reduced frictional effects. Friction induced by tidal stress decelerated the southward subtidal flows driven by northwesterly winter winds along the Korean coast of the Yellow Sea. These results strongly suggest that in order to produce accurate predictions of oil spill trajectories, simulations must include tidal effects, such as variations within a tidal cycle and advections over longer time scales in tide-dominated areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. 3d Operational Hydrodinamic Modelling System as a Support to Oil Spill Responses in the Ligurian Sea (North-Western Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Giudice, T.; Quagliati, M.; Bertolotto, R.; Pedroncini, A.; Cusati, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    Accidental oil spills have a significant impact on marine ecosystems reminding us the importance of an efficiency emergency planning to ensure a quick and proper response. In this phase, the numerical modelling approach emerges as a useful tool in order to simulate the scenarios and addresses the issue of oil dispersion in the case of a spill. The 3D operational hydrodynamic modelling system of the Ligurian Sea (North-Western Mediterranean) is used as a base to predict the possible oil trajectory and to track the path and fate of spilled oil under the prevailing hydrodynamic and meteorological conditions. The operative chain of the hydrodynamic model was developed by DHI Italia for the Regional Environment Protection Agency (ARPAL) operating in the Ligurian region (Italy) with the objective to preserve the environment, support the activities of the Civil Protection Department and promote a sustainable, healthy and safety management of the local resources. In this chain the MFS Mediterranean 3D model (operated within MyOcean EU Project - Copernicus Programme) was downscaled from 6.5 km to finer nearshore mesh (500 m). The increased spatial resolution allows the correct simulation of current developments in the vicinity of morphological discontinuities such as the promontory of Portofino on the Ligurian coast. The meteorological forcing is provided by MOLOCH, a LAM model operated by ARPAL together with fresh water discharges from the main rivers through hydrological modelling. Since the Ligurian Sea recently hosted the transfer of wreck Costa Concordia some real time simulations of hypothetical oil spill were performed to support the crisis unit of the Genoa Coast Guard. Simulations led to interesting results concerning the importance of updated weather conditions, which strongly influence current trends, focusing on the importance of the continuity of the modelling chain.

  16. Hull loss accident model for narrow body commercial aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somchanok Tiabtiamrat

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accidents with narrow body aircraft were statistically evaluated covering six families of commercial aircraft includingBoeing B737, Airbus A320, McDonnell Douglas MD80, Tupolev TU134/TU154 and Antonov AN124. A risk indicator for eachflight phase was developed based on motion characteristics, duration time, and the presence of adverse weather conditions.The estimated risk levels based on these risk indicators then developed from the risk indicator. Regression analysis indicatedvery good agreement between the estimated risk level and the accident ratio of hull loss cases per number of delivered aircraft.The effect of time on the hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft was assessed for B737, A320 and MD80. Equationsrepresenting the effect of time on hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were proposed for B737, A320, and MD80,while average values of hull loss accident ratio per delivered aircraft were found for TU134, TU154, and AN 124. Accidentprobability equations were then developed for each family of aircraft that the probability of an aircraft in a hull loss accidentcould be estimated for any aircraft family, flight phase, presence of adverse weather factor, hour of day, day of week, monthof year, pilot age, and pilot flight hour experience. A simplified relationship between estimated hull loss accident probabilityand unsafe acts by human was proposed. Numerical investigation of the relationship between unsafe acts by human andfatality ratio suggested that the fatality ratio in hull loss accident was dominated primarily by the flight phase media.

  17. Neural networks in data analysis and modeling for detecting littoral oil-spills by airborne laser fluorosensor remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bin; An, Jubai; Brown, Carl E.; Chen, Weiwei

    2003-05-01

    In this paper an artificial neural network (ANN) approach, which is based on flexible nonlinear models for a very broad class of transfer functions, is applied for multi-spectral data analysis and modeling of airborne laser fluorosensor in order to differentiate between classes of oil on water surface. We use three types of algorithm: Perceptron Network, Back-Propagation (B-P) Network and Self-Organizing feature Maps (SOM) Network. Using the data in form of 64-channel spectra as inputs, the ANN presents the analysis and estimation results of the oil type on the basis of the type of background materials as outputs. The ANN is trained and tested using sample data set to the network. The results of the above 3 types of network are compared in this paper. It is proved that the training has developed a network that not only fits the training data, but also fits real-world data that the network will process operationally. The ANN model would play a significant role in the ocean oil-spill identification in the future.

  18. Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

  19. Trajectory of an oil spill off Goa, eastern Arabian Sea: Field observations and simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vethamony, P. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India)]. E-mail: mony@nio.org; Sudheesh, K. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India); Babu, M.T. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India); Jayakumar, S. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India); Manimurali, R. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India); Saran, A.K. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403 004 (India); Sharma, L.H. [Indian Coast Guard, District HQ-11, MPT Old Admin Building, Mormugao Harbour, Goa 403 803 (India); Rajan, B. [Indian Coast Guard, District HQ-11, MPT Old Admin Building, Mormugao Harbour, Goa 403 803 (India); Srivastava, M. [Indian Coast Guard, District HQ-11, MPT Old Admin Building, Mormugao Harbour, Goa 403 803 (India)

    2007-07-15

    An oil spill occurred off Goa, west coast of India, on 23 March 2005 due to collision of two vessels. In general, fair weather with weak winds prevails along the west coast of India during March. In that case, the spill would have moved slowly and reached the coast. However, in 2005 when this event occurred, relatively stronger winds prevailed, and these winds forced the spill to move away from the coast. The spill trajectory was dominated by winds rather than currents. The MIKE21 Spill Analysis model was used to simulate the spill trajectory. The observed spill trajectory and the slick area were in agreement with the model simulations. The present study illustrates the importance of having pre-validated trajectories of spill scenarios for selecting eco-sensitive regions for preparedness and planning suitable response strategies whenever spill episodes occur. - This is the first time model results have been compared with real oil spill observations along an Indian Coast.

  20. Proceedings of the sixteenth Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program (AMOP) technical seminar. Compte rendu du 16e colloque technique du programme de lutte contres les deversements d'hydrocarbures en mer et dans l'Arctique (AMOP); Volumes 1 et 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    At a conference on marine and Arctic oil spills, papers were presented on the behavior and fate of spilled oil, spill contingency planning, biological effects and bioremediation, oil spill countermeasures, spill modelling, in-situ burning of spilled oil, oil spill treatment agents, remote sensing, and shoreline protection and cleanup. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 66 papers from this conference.

  1. Integral thermal model of severe accident dynamics of NPP with containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bol'shov, L.A.; Vasil'ev, A.D.; Kamennov, G.P.

    1991-01-01

    An analytical model of the interaction of reactor core remains with concrete during severe accidents at nuclear power plants is considered. Time dependences of side and radial concrete melting are plotted. Time dependences of containment atmosphere temperature and pressure during a severe accident at nuclear power plants are investigated analytically and numerically. The sensitivity of the results to the coefficient values in the problem is studied within the range of their concertainty. The Kaverna-1 is described. The results of modelling a severe NPP accident which have been obtained using the Kaverna-1 package are presented

  2. Aerosols generated by spills of viscous solutions and slurries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballinger, M.Y.; Hodgson, W.H.

    1986-12-01

    Safety assessments and environmental impact statements for nuclear fuel cycle facilities require an estimate of potential airborne releases caused by accidents. Aerosols generated by accidents are being investigated by Pacific Northwest Laboratory to develop methods for estimating source terms from these accidents. Experiments were run by spilling viscous solutions and slurries to determine the mass and particle-size distribution of the material made airborne. In all cases, 1 L of solution was spilled from a height of 3 m. Aqueous solutions of sucrose (0 to 56%) gave a range of viscosities from 1.3 to 46 cp. The percent of spill mass made airborne from the spills of these solutions ranged from 0.001 to 0.0001. The mass of particles made airborne decreased as solution viscosity increased. Slurry loading ranged from 25 to 51% total solids. The maximum source airborne (0.0046 wt %) occurred with the slurry that had the lightest loading of soluble solids. The viscosity of the carrying solution also had an impact on the source term from spilling slurries. The effect of surface tension on the source term was examined in two experiments. Surface tension was halved in these spills by adding a surfactant. The maximum weight percent airborne from these spills was 0.0045, compared to 0.003 for spills with twice the surface tension. The aerodynamic mass medium diameters for the aerosols produced by spills of the viscous solutions, slurries, and low surface tension liquids ranged from 0.6 to 8.4 μm, and the geometric standard deviation ranged from 3.8 to 28.0

  3. Mega borg oil spill: Fate and effect studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Mega Borg, a Norwegian tanker, released an estimated 5.1 million gallons (gal) of Palanca Angola crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico during a lightering accident and subsequent fire. The collection of reports was designed to provide a comprehensive overview of the spill chronology, the fate of the oil released, and subsequent studies that were conducted to assess the impacts of the oil spill on the environment and its biota

  4. Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

    2014-01-01

    In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

  5. Modeling comprehensive chemical composition of weathered oil following a marine spill to predict ozone and potential secondary aerosol formation and constrain transport pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drozd, Greg T.; Worton, David R.; Aeppli, Christoph; Reddy, Christopher M.; Zhang, Haofei; Variano, Evan; Goldstein, Allen H.

    2015-11-01

    Releases of hydrocarbons from oil spills have large environmental impacts in both the ocean and atmosphere. Oil evaporation is not simply a mechanism of mass loss from the ocean, as it also causes production of atmospheric pollutants. Monitoring atmospheric emissions from oil spills must include a broad range of volatile organic compounds (VOC), including intermediate-volatile and semivolatile compounds (IVOC, SVOC), which cause secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and ozone production. The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) disaster in the northern Gulf of Mexico during Spring/Summer of 2010 presented a unique opportunity to observe SOA production due to an oil spill. To better understand these observations, we conducted measurements and modeled oil evaporation utilizing unprecedented comprehensive composition measurements, achieved by gas chromatography with vacuum ultraviolet time of flight mass spectrometry (GC-VUV-HR-ToFMS). All hydrocarbons with 10-30 carbons were classified by degree of branching, number of cyclic rings, aromaticity, and molecular weight; these hydrocarbons comprise ˜70% of total oil mass. Such detailed and comprehensive characterization of DWH oil allowed bottom-up estimates of oil evaporation kinetics. We developed an evaporative model, using solely our composition measurements and thermodynamic data, that is in excellent agreement with published mass evaporation rates and our wind-tunnel measurements. Using this model, we determine surface slick samples are composed of oil with a distribution of evaporative ages and identify and characterize probable subsurface transport of oil.

  6. Modeling requirements for full-scope reactor simulators of fission-product transport during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, P.G.; Monson, P.R.; Mitchell, H.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes in the needs and requirements to properly and efficiently model fission product transport on full scope reactor simulators. Current LWR simulators can be easily adapted to model severe accident phenomena and the transport of radionuclides. Once adapted these simulators can be used as a training tool during operator training exercises for training on severe accident guidelines, for training on containment venting procedures, or as training tool during site wide emergency training exercises

  7. TIRE MODELS USED IN VEHICLE DYNAMIC APPLICATIONS AND THEIR USING IN VEHICLE ACCIDENT SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman ELDOĞAN

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Wheel model is very important in vehicle modelling, it is because the contact between vehicle and road is achieved by wheel. Vehicle models can be dynamic models which are used in vehicle design, they can also be models used in accident simulations. Because of the importance of subject, many studies including theoretical, experimental and mixed type have been carried out. In this study, information is given about development of wheel modelling and research studies and also use of these modellings in traffic accident simulations.

  8. European Atlantic: the hottest oil spill hotspot worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieites, David R.; Nieto-Román, Sandra; Palanca, Antonio; Ferrer, Xavier; Vences, Miguel

    2004-11-01

    Oil spills caused by maritime transport of petroleum products are still an important source of ocean pollution, especially in main production areas and along major transport routes. We here provide a historical and geographic analysis of the major oil spills (>700 t) since 1960. Spills were recorded from several key marine ecosystems and marine biodiversity hotspots. The past four decades have been characterized by an overall decrease in the number of accidents and tonnes of oil spilled in the sea, but this trend was less distinct in the European Atlantic area. Recent black tides from the Erika and Prestige vessels provided new evidence for the high risk of accidents with serious ecological impact in this area, which according to our analysis is historically the most important oil spill hotspot worldwide. The English Channel and waters around Galicia in Spain were the areas with most accidents. Maritime transport in European Atlantic waters has been predicted to continue increasing. Together with our own results this suggests that, in addition to measures for increased traffic safety, deployment of emergency capacities in the spill hotspot areas may be crucial for a sustainable conservation of sea resources and ecosystems.

  9. Contribution to Accident Prediction Models Development for Rural Two-Lane Roads in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Draženko Glavić

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Over the last three decades numerous research efforts have been conducted worldwide to determine the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic and road characteristics. So far, the mentioned studies have not been carried out in Serbia and in the region. This paper represents one of the first attempts to develop accident prediction models in Serbia. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review, describes procedures for collection and analysis of the traffic accident data, as well as the methodology used to develop the accident prediction models. The paper presents models obtained by both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The obtained results are compared to the results of other studies and comparisons are discussed. Finally, the paper presents conclusions and important points for future research. The results of this research can find theoretical as well as practical application.

  10. Oil spill preparedness in the Mediterranean Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jorigne, E.M.; Wong, K.V.

    1993-01-01

    Over 15% of the world's consumption of crude oil and refined products is shipped through the Mediterranean Sea each year. The sea is one of the most polluted areas in the world and has areas of high risk for oil spills, notably those places where there is a very narrow passage between coasts or islands. The region also needs to modernize its ports by developing more deballasting facilities, since a large percentage of spill accidents happens during terminal operations. Release of oily wastes from ships is also significant. The World Bank Global Environment Facility trust fund is working on a project to help the southwest Mediterranean countries modernize reception facilities for ballast water, bilge water, and oily waste water. The Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Center (REMPEC) in Malta acts as the coordinating center for regional contingency planning for oil spill response. The cost of the port facilities modernization program and oil spill contingency plan implementation for the Mediterranean is estimated at US$444 million. An allocation of costs is suggested which will help those countries needing more financial aid to implement the proposed programs. In the long run, the cost of these programs will be much lower than that of a massive oil spill cleanup. 7 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

  11. Mathematical modeling of cryogenic spills onto quiescent sea waters followed by pool fires of liquefied natural gas (LNG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esteves, Alan Silva; Reis Parise, José Alberto

    2013-01-01

    Spill and combustion of a pool as a result of a spreading of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at sea from punctures on carrier hulls is presented. Models from literature combined mechanisms of flow thorough an orifice, formation of a semicircular pool, vaporization of a cryogenic fluid by boiling and pool fire heating, ignition, non-premixed turbulent fire with variation with height of the emissive power of the ‘visible’ plume, burning of fuel along the ‘luminous’ zone (fire base) and radiation emitted by gray gases and soot particles from the combustion zone. A review of the experimental data on vaporization velocity and burning rate is presented. Predictions agreed well with existing experimental data and other models. The model simulated fires from 1 to 5 m diameter holes in vessel geometries of 125,000 and 265,000 m 3 . Predictions are plausible, and robust enough to be applied in industrial practice. The construction of an LNG terminal involves, among other parameters, the prediction of thermal radiation fields emitted by pool fires. This is to evaluate safe distances to vulnerable resources around the facility. -- Highlights: • More than 20 orifice models published since 1969 were reviewed. • Flow parameter adjusted with proxy equations for a ∗,max and t * v within 1/3 ≤ ϕ ≤ 30. • Review of experimental of data for vaporization velocities covered since 1978. • The axial emissive power along the fire plume increases with vaporization velocity. • Plume height/diameter ratio of termal plume was nearly insensitive to the scale up of carrier cargo capacity

  12. The Role of Slope in the Fill and Spill Process of Linked Submarine Minibasins. Model Validation and Numerical Runs at Laboratory Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastianon, E.; Viparelli, E.; Cantelli, A.; Imran, J.

    2015-12-01

    Primarily motivated by applications to hydrocarbon exploration, submarine minibasins have been widely studied during recent decades to understand the physical phenomenon that characterizes their fill process. Minibasins were identified in seismic records in the Gulf of Mexico, Angola, Trinidad and Tobago, Ireland, Nigeria and also in outcrops (e.g., Tres Pasos Formation, southern Chile). The filling of minibasis is generally described as the 'fill-and-spill' process, i.e. turbidity currents enter, are reflected on the minibasin flanks, pond and deposit suspended sediment. As the minibasin fills the turbidity current spills on the lowermost zone of the basin flank -spill point - and start filling the next basin downdip. Different versions of this simplified model were used to interpret field and laboratory data but it is still unclear how the minibasin size compared to the magnitude of the turbidity currents, the position of each basin in the system, and the slope of the minibasin system affects the characteristics of the deposit (e.g., geometry, grain size). Here, we conduct a numerical study to investigate how the 'fill-and-spill' model changes with increase in slopes of the minibasin system. First, we validate our numerical results against laboratory experiment performed on two linked minibasins located on a horizontal platform by comparing measured and simulated deposit geometries, suspended sediment concentration profiles and grain sizes. We then perform numerical simulations by increasing the minibasin system slope: deposit and flow characteristics are compared with the case of horizontal platform to identify how the depositional processes change. For the numerical study we used a three-dimensional numerical model of turbidity currents that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for dilute suspensions. Turbulence is modeled by a buoyancy-modified k-ɛ closure. The numerical model has a deforming bottom boundary, to model the changes in the bed

  13. The on scene command and control system (OSC2) : an integrated incident command system (ICS) forms-database management system and oil spill trajectory and fates model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, E.; Galagan, C.; Howlett, E.

    1998-01-01

    The On Scene Command and Control (OSC 2 ) system is an oil spill modeling tool which was developed to combine Incident Command System (ICS) forms, an underlying database, an integrated geographical information system (GIS) and an oil spill trajectory and fate model. The first use of the prototype OSC 2 system was at a PREP drill conducted at the U.S. Coast Guard Marine Safety Office, San Diego, in April 1998. The goal of the drill was to simulate a real-time response over a 36-hour period using the Unified Command System. The simulated spill was the result of a collision between two vessels inside San Diego Bay that caused the release of 2,000 barrels of fuel oil. The hardware component of the system which was tested included three notebook computers, two laser printers, and a poster printer. The field test was a success but it was not a rigorous test of the system's capabilities. The map display was useful in quickly setting up the ICS divisions and groups and in deploying resources. 6 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  14. Spills Action Centre summary report of 1992 spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    Environment Ontario's Spills Action Center (SAC) receives and initiates response to spills and other urgent environmental incidents on a 24 h per day basis. The center documented 14,588 occurrence reports in 1992. Two thirds of these involved a range of ministry notification requirements and environmental complaints, while one third involved spills. Information on spills reported in 1992 are summarized. The 5,014 spills reported to SAC in 1992 represent a 5% decrease from 1991. Fewer spills to air accounted for this decrease, while the number of spills to land and water remained unchanged. Oil and fuel spills accounted for 59% of spilled material. Chemical or chemical solutions accounted for ca 15%, wastes or wastewaters 18%, gaseous emissions 6% and unknown for the remainder. Around 20% of spills were less than 10 liters, 57% were less than 100 liters, and 86% were less than 1000 liters. About 28% of the spills had a confirmed environmental impact or adverse affect, two thirds involving soil contamination and around one fifth involving surface water contamination. Twenty-three spills resulted in human health and safety concerns. Around 45% of all spills were completely cleaned up, and an additional 22% were partially cleaned up. Industrial sectors with the largest proportion of reported spills were: transportation, 16%; petroleum, 13%; metallurgical, 6%; general manufacturing, 5%; and chemical, 5%. Public sector spills accounted for 18% of reported spills. Motor vehicles were the largest sources of spills accounting for over 28% of reported spills. 14 figs., 14 tabs

  15. ESTER: a new approach in modelling severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, I.; Jones, A.; Schmidt, F.

    1993-01-01

    ESTER is a set of codes for calculating phenomena during severe accidents in thermal reactors. It makes use of software tools that allow the data to be defined as a tree-structured data base and this data to be stored and retrieved by the code modules. The tools include generalized input and output routines that are independent of the particular code being used. Severe accident research codes are in a continual state of development and the structure of ESTER is such that modifications can be introduced easily and safely. The ESTER framework also facilitates the coupling together of codes. A preliminary version of ESTER containing a complete set of tools and a limited number of applications has already been released. 9 refs., 5 figs

  16. Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

  17. Modeling and measuring the effects of imprecision in accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Donghan

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents two approaches for evaluating the uncertainties inherent in accident management strategies. Current PRA methodology uses expert opinion in the assessment of rare event probabilities. The problem is that these probabilities may be difficult to estimate even though reasonable engineering judgement is applied. This occurs because expert opinion under incomplete knowledge and limited data is inherently imprecise. In this case, the concept of uncertainty about a probability value is both intuitively appealing and potentially useful. This analysis considers accident management as a decision problem (i.e. 'applying a strategy' vs. 'do nothing') and uses an influence diagram. Then, the analysis applies two approaches to evaluating imprecise node probabilities in the influence diagram: 'a fuzzy probability' and 'an interval-valued subjective probability'. For the propagation of subjective probabilities, the analysis uses a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. In case of fuzzy probabilities, fuzzy logic is applied to propagate them. We believe that these approaches can allow us to better understand uncertainties associated with severe accident management strategies, because they provide additional information regarding the implications of using imprecise input data

  18. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayer, J.E.; Clark, A.T.; Loysen, P.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Mishima, J.; Owczarski, P.C.; Gregory, W.S.; Nichols, B.D.

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH

  19. Modelling and forecasting occupational accidents of different severity levels in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmen Carnero, Maria; Jose Pedregal, Diego

    2010-01-01

    The control of accidents at the work place is a critical issue all over the world. The consequences of occupational accidents in terms of costs for the company in which the accidents take place is only one minor matter, being the social impact and the loss of human life the most controversial effects of this important problem. The methods used to forecast future evolution of accidents are often limited to trend estimations and projections, being the scientific literature on this topic rather scarce. This paper aims at showing and predicting the evolution of Spanish occupational accidents of different levels of severity, allowing the evaluation of the influence that preventive actions carried out by public administrations or private companies may have over the number of occupational accidents. Though some contributions may be found on this topic for Spain, this paper is the first contribution that forecast occupational accidents for different levels of severity using Multivariate Unobserved Components models developed in a State Space framework extended to deal with the irregular sampling interval of the data. Data from 1998 to 2009 have been used to test the efficacy of the forecasting system.

  20. Models of fuel masses transition during second stage of the accident on Chernobyl NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarapon, A.

    2002-01-01

    In ISPE NASU of Ukraine are developed mathematical models and software, which allow to research the processes of fuel masses transition during the accident at ChNPP. We found out, that the main reason of accident on ChNPP is the happening in the reactor of crisis of heat exchange of the second sort, instead of the effect positive output of reactivity from displacers of rods of system of emergency protection, as is accepted in official version

  1. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E.

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors

  2. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul

    2015-01-01

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree

  3. Restructuring of an Event Tree for a Loss of Coolant Accident in a PSA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Ho-Gon; Han, Sang-Hoon; Park, Jin-Hee; Jang, Seong-Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Conventional risk model using PSA (probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a NPP considers two types of accident initiators for internal events, LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) and transient event such as Loss of electric power, Loss of cooling, and so on. Traditionally, a LOCA is divided into three initiating event (IE) categories depending on the break size, small, medium, and large LOCA. In each IE group, safety functions or systems modeled in the accident sequences are considered to be applicable regardless of the break size. However, since the safety system or functions are not designed based on a break size, there exist lots of mismatch between safety system/function and an IE, which may make the risk model conservative or in some case optimistic. Present paper proposes new methodology for accident sequence analysis for LOCA. We suggest an integrated single ET construction for LOCA by incorporating a safety system/function and its applicable break spectrum into the ET. Integrated accident sequence analysis in terms of ET for LOCA was proposed in the present paper. Safety function/system can be properly assigned if its applicable range is given by break set point. Also, using simple Boolean algebra with the subset of the break spectrum, final accident sequences are expressed properly in terms of the Boolean multiplication, the occurrence frequency and the success/failure of safety system. The accident sequence results show that the accident sequence is described more detailed compared with the conventional results. Unfortunately, the quantitative results in terms of MCS (minimal Cut-Set) was not given because system fault tree was not constructed for this analysis and the break set points for all 7 point were not given as a specified numerical quantity. Further study may be needed to fix the break set point and to develop system fault tree.

  4. Guidelines for system modeling: pre-accident human errors, rev.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Jung, W. D.; Lee, Y. H.; Hwang, M. J.; Yang, J. E

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation results of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of pre-accident human errors in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for the Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) using the ASME PRA standard show that more than 50% of 10 items to be improved are related to the identification and screening analysis for them. Thus, we developed a guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors for the system analyst to resolve some items to be improved for them. The developed guideline consists of modeling criteria for the pre-accident human errors (identification, qualitative screening, and common restoration errors) and detailed guidelines for pre-accident human errors relating to testing, maintenance, and calibration works of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The system analyst use the developed guideline and he or she applies it to the system which he or she takes care of. The HRA analyst review the application results of the system analyst. We applied the developed guideline to the auxiliary feed water system of the KSNP to show the usefulness of it. The application results of the developed guideline show that more than 50% of the items to be improved for pre-accident human errors of auxiliary feed water system are resolved. The guideline for modeling pre-accident human errors developed in this study can be used for other NPPs as well as the KSNP. It is expected that both use of the detailed procedure, to be developed in the future, for the quantification of pre-accident human errors and the guideline developed in this study will greatly enhance the PSA quality in the HRA of pre-accident human errors.

  5. THE HYDROCARBON SPILL SCREENING MODEL (HSSM), VOLUME 2: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND SOURCE CODES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A screening model for subsurface release of a nonaqueous phase liquid which is less dense than water (LNAPL) is presented. The model conceptualizes the release as consisting of 1) vertical transport from near the surface to the capillary fringe, 2) radial spreading of an LNAPL l...

  6. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  7. Oil Spill Response Manual

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marieke Zeinstra; Sandra Heins; Wierd Koops

    2014-01-01

    A two year programme has been carried out by the NHL University of Applied Sciences together with private companies in the field of oil and chemical spill response to finalize these manuals on oil and chemical spill response. These manuals give a good overview of all aspects of oil and chemical

  8. Recent spill experiences: the North Cape spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.

    1996-01-01

    The events which surrounded the spill of some 825,000 gallons of heating oil into the sea off the Rhode Island coast in January 1996, were described. Birds and marine life (lobsters in particular) had been affected by the spill, with injured and dead animals appearing from first light. Wildlife handling procedures were established immediately. A significant amount of the spilled oil had entered into the water column and could not be seen or controlled, and was moving along the coast into coastal ponds. Considerable seafood contamination was inevitable. To avoid even greater problems, it was decided to close the south shore beaches to the public and 105 square miles of coastal area to fishing and shell fishing. 4 refs., 2 figs

  9. Recent spill experiences: the North Cape spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spaulding, M. [Rhode Island Univ., Kingston, RI (United States). Dept. of Ocean Engineering

    1996-09-01

    The events which surrounded the spill of some 825,000 gallons of heating oil into the sea off the Rhode Island coast in January 1996, were described. Birds and marine life (lobsters in particular) had been affected by the spill, with injured and dead animals appearing from first light. Wildlife handling procedures were established immediately. A significant amount of the spilled oil had entered into the water column and could not be seen or controlled, and was moving along the coast into coastal ponds. Considerable seafood contamination was inevitable. To avoid even greater problems, it was decided to close the south shore beaches to the public and 105 square miles of coastal area to fishing and shell fishing. 4 refs., 2 figs.

  10. Oil spill statistics and oil spill monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viebahn, C. von [Greifswald Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Geography

    2001-09-01

    The main parts of the report describe the analysis and it's results of German and international oil spill data (North Sea and Baltic Sea). In order to improve the current oil spill monitoring of the Baltic Sea regarding oil spill data, the report proposes the establishment of a combined monitoring system; its suitability is shown on selected examples. This contains today's pollution control aircraft plus in-service aircraft and satellites. (orig.) [German] Der Schwerpunkt der Arbeit liegt in der Analyse von Daten ueber marine Oelschadensfaelle in deutschen und internationalen Gewaessern (Nord- und Ostsee). Um die heutige Ueberwachung der Ostsee im Hinblick auf Oelschadensfaelle zu verbessern, wird die Einrichtung eines kombinierten Ueberwachungssystems vorgeschlagen und dessen Eignung an ausgewaehlten Beispielen dargestellt. Dieses umfasst sowohl die heute eingesetzten Ueberwachungsflugzeuge sowie zusaetzlich Linienflugzeuge und Satelliten. (orig.)

  11. Model for calculation of concentration and load on behalf of accidents with radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janssen, L.A.M.; Heugten, W.H.H. van

    1987-04-01

    In the project 'Information- and calculation-system for disaster combatment', by order of the Dutch government, a demonstration model has been developed for a diagnosis system for accidents. In this demonstration a model is used to calculate the concentration- and dose-distributions caused by incidental emissions of limited time. This model is described in this report. 4 refs.; 2 figs.; 3 tabs

  12. utilizing the tool of gis in oil spill management - a case study of etche

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    xtz

    Data were collected and imported into GIS environment for analysis using ArcInfo ... identified as the major oil spill distributor. Out of total .... terrestrial traffic accidents, oil well blowout, off shore and ... networks as linear features, and the major.

  13. Effect of oil spill on the microbial population in Andaman Sea around Nicobar Island

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, R.

    The microbial studiees of the follow up cruise by FORV Sagar Sampada (cruise No. 113), 9 months after the oil spill in the Andaman Sea due to accident of VLCC Maersk Navigator revealed disturbance in the natural microbial population. Higher...

  14. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamrane, Y.; Wybo, J.-L.; Armand, P.

    2013-01-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. -- Highlights: • Study of atmospheric dispersion modeling use during nuclear accidents. • ADM tools were mainly used in a diagnosis approach during Chernobyl accident. • ADM tools were also used

  15. Application of the severe accident code ATHLET-CD. Modelling and evaluation of accident management measures (Project WASA-BOSS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilhelm, Polina; Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Schaefer, Frank [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Dresden (Germany). Div. Reactor Safety

    2016-07-01

    The improvement of the safety of nuclear power plants is a continuously on-going process. The analysis of transients and accidents is an important research topic, which significantly contributes to safety enhancements of existing power plants. In case of an accident with multiple failures of safety systems core uncovery and heat-up can occur. In order to prevent the accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, different accident management measures can be applied. Numerical analyses are used to investigate the accident progression and the complex physical phenomena during the core degradation phase, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of possible countermeasures in the preventive and mitigative domain [1, 2]. The presented analyses have been performed with the computer code ATHLET-CD developed by GRS [3, 4].

  16. An empirically tractable model of optimal oil spills prevention in Russian sea harbours

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deissenberg, C. [CEFI-CNRS, Les Milles (France); Gurman, V.; Tsirlin, A. [RAS, Program Systems Inst., Pereslavl-Zalessky (Russian Federation); Ryumina, E. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Economic Market Problems

    2001-07-01

    Based on previous theoretical work by Gottinger (1997, 1998), we propose a simple model of optimal monitoring of oil-related activities in harbour areas that is suitable for empirical estimation within the Russian-Ukrainian context, in spite of the poor availability of data in these countries. Specifically, the model indicates how to best allocate at the steady state a given monitoring budget between different monitoring activities. An approximate analytical solution to the optimization problem is derived, and a simple procedure for estimating the model on the basis of the actually available data is suggested. An application using data obtained for several harbours of the Black and Baltic Seas is given. It suggests that the current Russian monitoring practice could be much improved by better allocating the available monitoring resources. (Author)

  17. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  18. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

  19. Development on Dose Assessment Model of Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ju Yub; Kim, Ju Youl; Kim, Suk Hoon; Lee, Seung Hee; Yoon, Tae Bin [FNC Techology, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In order to support the emergency response system, the simulator for overseas nuclear accident is under development including source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion modeling and dose assessment. The simulator is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator). For the source-term estimation, design characteristics of each reactor type should be reflected into the model. Since there are a lot of reactor types in neighboring countries, the representative reactors of China, Japan and Taiwan have been selected and the source-term estimation models for each reactor have been developed, respectively. For the atmospheric dispersion modeling, Lagrangian particle model will be integrated into the simulator for the long range dispersion modeling in Northeast Asia region. In this study, the dose assessment model has been developed considering external and internal exposure. The dose assessment model has been developed as a part of the overseas nuclear accidents simulator which is named NANAS. It addresses external and internal pathways including cloudshine, groundshine and inhalation. Also, it uses the output of atmospheric dispersion model (i.e. the average concentrations of radionuclides in air and ground) and various coefficients (e.g. dose conversion factor and breathing rate) as an input. Effective dose and thyroid dose for each grid in the Korean Peninsula region are printed out as a format of map projection and chart. Verification and validation on the dose assessment model will be conducted in further study by benchmarking with the measured data of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident.

  20. Fast dose assessment models, parameters and code under accident conditions for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Z.Y.; Hu, E.B.; Meng, X.C.; Zhang, Y.; Yao, R.T.

    1993-01-01

    According to requirement of accident emergency plan for Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant, a Gaussian straight-line model was adopted for estimating radionuclide concentration in surface air. In addition, the effects of mountain body on atmospheric dispersion was considered. By combination of field atmospheric dispersion experiment and wind tunnel modeling test, necessary modifications have been done for some models and parameters. A computer code for assessment was written in Quick BASIC (V4.5) language. The radius of assessment region is 10 km and the code is applicable to early accident assessment. (1 tab.)

  1. Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

  2. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandt

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model, has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the total deposition of  137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations for dry- and wet deposition. The performance, compared to measurements, of using different combinations of two different wet deposition parameterizations and three different parameterizations of dry deposition has been evaluated, using different statistical tests. The best model performance, compared to measurements, is obtained when parameterizing the total deposition combined of a simple method for dry deposition and a subgrid-scale averaging scheme for wet deposition based on relative humidities. The same major conclusion is obtained for all the three different radioactive isotopes and using two different deposition measurement databases. Large differences are seen in the results obtained by using the two different parameterizations of wet deposition based on precipitation rates and relative humidities, respectively. The parameterization based on subgrid-scale averaging is, in all cases, performing better than the parameterization based on precipitation rates. This indicates that the in-cloud scavenging process is more important than the below cloud scavenging process for the submicron particles and that the precipitation rates are

  3. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhong-xiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  4. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  5. Water-in-oil emulsions results of formation studies and applicability to oil spill modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fingas, Merv; Fieldhouse, Ben; Mullin, Joe

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarises studies of water-in-oil emulsions, their stability, and modelling of their formation. Studies show that water-in-oil emulsions might be characterised into three categories (stable, mesostable and unstable). These categories were established by visual appearance, elasticity and viscosity difference. It was also shown that water content was not an important factor. A fourth category of water-in-oil exists, that of water entrainment, which is not an emulsion. Water-in-oil emulsions made from crude oils have different classes of stabilities as a result of the asphaltene and resin contents. The differences in the emulsion types are readily distinguished both by their rheological properties, and simply by appearance. The apparent viscosity of a stable emulsion at a shear rate of one reciprocal second, is at least three orders-of-magnitude greater than the starting oil. An unstable emulsion usually has a viscosity no more than one order-of-magnitude greater than that of the starting oil. A stable emulsion has a significant elasticity, whereas an unstable emulsion does not. Stable emulsions have sufficient asphaltenes (>∼7%) to establish films of these compounds around water droplets. Mesostable emulsions have insufficient asphaltenes to render them completely stable. Stability is achieved by visco-elastic retention of water and secondarily by the presence of asphaltene or resin films. Mesostable emulsions display apparent viscosities of about 80-600 times that of the starting oil and true viscosities of 20-200 times that of the starting oil. Mesostable emulsions have an asphaltene and resin content greater than 3%. Entrained water occurs when a viscous oil retains larger water droplets, but conditions are not suitable for the formation of an emulsion. Entrained water may have a viscosity that is similar or slightly greater (∼ 2-10 times) than the starting oil. It was found that emulsion formation occurs at a threshold energy, however this energy

  6. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.

    1985-01-01

    SAS4A is a new code system which has been designed for analyzing the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modeling the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel motion experiment analyses are also presented

  7. Successful social environmental management model, implemented in Ecuador to overcome impacts from a heavy crude oil spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aleman, Miguel Angel; Bermeo, Ramiro; Mendizabal, Andres; Loon, Wong [ENTRIX Inc. Branch, Quito (Ecuador)

    2010-07-01

    An oil spill of 11,700 barrels of heavy crude oil occurred at an OCP Ecuador S.A. pipeline in a high biodiversity area in eastern Ecuador on February 25, 2009. The pipeline breakage was due to stress caused by an earth movement. The aim of this paper is to present the methodology used by the company for the emergency response. First of all, medical assistance was provided to the inhabitants of the area as a safety precaution and water was distributed to them while other workers contained the spill and cleaned the area. Residents were then offered temporary jobs participating in the cleaning efforts. Throughout the cleanup process, the media and the population were kept informed of how the process was progressing in an open and transparent manner. This methodology ensured the success of the cleanup and restoration work in a timely manner and this methodology can now be used and further developed for handling future events.

  8. Successful social environmental management model, implemented in Ecuador to overcome impacts from a heavy crude oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleman, Miguel Angel; Bermeo, Ramiro; Mendizabal, Andres; Loon, Wong

    2010-01-01

    An oil spill of 11,700 barrels of heavy crude oil occurred at an OCP Ecuador S.A. pipeline in a high biodiversity area in eastern Ecuador on February 25, 2009. The pipeline breakage was due to stress caused by an earth movement. The aim of this paper is to present the methodology used by the company for the emergency response. First of all, medical assistance was provided to the inhabitants of the area as a safety precaution and water was distributed to them while other workers contained the spill and cleaned the area. Residents were then offered temporary jobs participating in the cleaning efforts. Throughout the cleanup process, the media and the population were kept informed of how the process was progressing in an open and transparent manner. This methodology ensured the success of the cleanup and restoration work in a timely manner and this methodology can now be used and further developed for handling future events.

  9. Pleural spill malign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camacho Duran, Fidel; Zamarriego, Roman; Gonzalez, Mauricio

    2002-01-01

    The pleural spills are developed because of an alteration in the mechanisms that usually move between 5 and 10 liters of liquid through the space pleural every 24 hours and this is reabsorbed, only leaving 5 to 20 ml present. The causes more common of spill pleural they are: congestive heart failure, bacterial pneumonia, malign neoplasia and pulmonary clot. The causes more common of pleural spill malign in general are: cancer of the lung, cancer of the breast and lymphomas. In the man, cancer of the lung, lymphomas and gastrointestinal cancer. In the woman, cancer of the breast, gynecological cancer and lung cancer. The paper, includes their characteristics, treatments and medicines

  10. Advanced evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic during an accident in LNG terminal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

    2014-07-01

    Evacuation of people located inside the enclosed area of an LNG terminal is a complex problem, especially considering that accidents involving LNG are potentially very hazardous. In order to create an evacuation model managed through fuzzy logic, extensive influence must be generated from safety analyses. A very important moment in the optimal functioning of an evacuation model is the creation of a database which incorporates all input indicators. The output result is the creation of a safety evacuation route which is active at the moment of the accident. (Author)

  11. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoval, A.V.; Kalvand, Ali.; Kazachkov, I.V.

    2013-01-01

    The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS) against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks' distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of other PPS's conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents

  12. Risk assessment model for nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Jing; Tang Huaqing; Zhang Yinghua; Zhang Limin

    2009-01-01

    A risk assessment model of nuclear accident emergency protection countermeasure based on fuzzy matter-element analysis and Euclid approach degree is proposed in the paper. The weight of assessed index is determined by information entropy and the scoring by experts, which could not only make full use of the inherent information of the indexes adequately, but reduce subjective assumption in the course of assessment effectively. The applied result shows that it is reasonable that the model is adopted to make risk assessment for nuclear accident emergency protective countermeasure,and it could be a kind of effective analytical method and decision making basis to choose the optimum protection countermeasure. (authors)

  13. Modeling of the corium cooling and loading factor analysis for containment during severe accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Konoval

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development and study of the mathematical model for corium melt interaction with low-temperature melting blocks in the passive protection systems (PPS against severe accidents at the NPP, and learning the peculiarities of construction and operation of the PPS. The configurations of cooling blocks’ distributions considered and the results of their work in the corium cooling pool are compared to the data of oth-er PPS’s conceptions. The conclusion is made that the models developed and the results obtained may be useful for constructing the PPS against severe accidents.

  14. Spill management strategy for the Chesapeake Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, H.L.; Chapman, R.S.; Johnson, B.H.

    1990-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program is a unique cooperative effort between state and Federal agencies to restore the health and productivity of America's largest estuary. To assist in addressing specific management issues, a comprehensive three-dimensional, time-varying hydrodynamic and water quality model has ben developed. The Bay modeling strategy will serve as an excellent framework for including submodules to predict the movement, dispersion, and weathering of accidental spills, such as for petroleum products or other chemicals. This paper presents sample results from the Bay application to illustrate the success of the model system in simulating Bay processes. Also, a review of model requirements for successful spill modeling in Chesapeake Bay is presented. Recommendations are given for implementing appropriate spill modules with the Bay model framework and establishing a strategy for model use in addressing management issues

  15. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bui, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance

  16. Comparative modeling analyses of Cs-137 fate in the rivers impacted by Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheleznyak, M.; Kivva, S. [Institute of Environmental Radioactivity, Fukushima University (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    The consequences of two largest nuclear accidents of the last decades - at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) (1986) and at Fukushima Daiichi NPP (FDNPP) (2011) clearly demonstrated that radioactive contamination of water bodies in vicinity of NPP and on the waterways from it, e.g., river- reservoir water after Chernobyl accident and rivers and coastal marine waters after Fukushima accident, in the both cases have been one of the main sources of the public concerns on the accident consequences. The higher weight of water contamination in public perception of the accidents consequences in comparison with the real fraction of doses via aquatic pathways in comparison with other dose components is a specificity of public perception of environmental contamination. This psychological phenomenon that was confirmed after these accidents provides supplementary arguments that the reliable simulation and prediction of the radionuclide dynamics in water and sediments is important part of the post-accidental radioecological research. The purpose of the research is to use the experience of the modeling activities f conducted for the past more than 25 years within the Chernobyl affected Pripyat River and Dnieper River watershed as also data of the new monitoring studies in Japan of Abukuma River (largest in the region - the watershed area is 5400 km{sup 2}), Kuchibuto River, Uta River, Niita River, Natsui River, Same River, as also of the studies on the specific of the 'water-sediment' {sup 137}Cs exchanges in this area to refine the 1-D model RIVTOX and 2-D model COASTOX for the increasing of the predictive power of the modeling technologies. The results of the modeling studies are applied for more accurate prediction of water/sediment radionuclide contamination of rivers and reservoirs in the Fukushima Prefecture and for the comparative analyses of the efficiency of the of the post -accidental measures to diminish the contamination of the water bodies. Document

  17. Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    The demands on nuclear fuel have recently been increasing, and include transient regimes, higher discharge burnup and longer fuel cycles. This has resulted in an increase of loads on fuel and core internals. In order to satisfy these demands while ensuring compliance with safety criteria, new national and international programmes have been launched and advanced modelling codes are being developed. The Fukushima Daiichi accident has particularly demonstrated the need for adequate analysis of all aspects of fuel performance to prevent a failure and also to predict fuel behaviour were an accident to occur.This publication presents the Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents, which was hosted by the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) in Chengdu, China, following the recommendation made in 2013 at the IAEA Technical Working Group on Fuel Performance and Technology. This recommendation was in agreement with IAEA mid-term initiatives, linked to the post-Fukushima IAEA Nuclear Safety Action Plan, as well as the forthcoming Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Fuel Modelling in Accident Conditions. At the technical meeting in Chengdu, major areas and physical phenomena, as well as types of code and experiment to be studied and used in the CRP, were discussed. The technical meeting provided a forum for international experts to review the state of the art of code development for modelling fuel performance of nuclear fuel for water cooled reactors with regard to steady state and transient conditions, and for design basis and early phases of severe accidents, including experimental support for code validation. A round table discussion focused on the needs and perspectives on fuel modelling in accident conditions. This meeting was the ninth in a series of IAEA meetings, which reflects Member States’ continuing interest in nuclear fuel issues. The previous meetings were held in 1980 (jointly with

  18. Cost-effectiveness analysis of countermeasures using accident consequence assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.

    1987-01-01

    In the event of a large release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, protective actions for the population potentially affected must be implemented. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be useful to define the countermeasures and the criteria needed to implement them. This paper shows the application of Accident Consequence Assessment (ACA) models to cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency and long-term countermeasures, making use of the different relationships between dose, contamination levels, affected areas and population distribution, included in such a model. The procedure is illustrated with the new Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS 1.3), developed at Sandia National Laboratories (USA), for a fixed accident scenario. Different alternative actions are evaluated with regard to their radiological and economical impact, searching for an 'optimum' strategy. (author)

  19. Illustration interface of accident progression in PWR by quick inference based on multilevel flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, H.; Ouyang, J.; Niwa, Y.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, a new accident inference method is proposed by using a goal and function oriented modeling method called Multilevel Flow Model focusing on explaining the causal-consequence relations and the objective of automatic action in the accident of nuclear power plant. Users can easily grasp how the various plant parameters will behave and how the various safety facilities will be activated sequentially to cope with the accident until the nuclear power plants are settled into safety state, i.e., shutdown state. The applicability of the developed method was validated by the conduction of internet-based 'view' experiment to the voluntary respondents, and in the future, further elaboration of interface design and the further introduction of instruction contents will be developed to make it become the usable CAI system. (authors)

  20. Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

    2017-10-01

    Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

  1. Fuel relocation modeling in the SAS4A accident analysis code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tentner, A.M.; Miles, K.J.; Kalimullah; Hill, D.J.

    1986-01-01

    The SAS4A code system has been designed for the analysis of the initial phase of Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs) up to gross melting or failure of the subassembly walls. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow (LOF) and Transient-Overpower (TOP) events, the relocation of the fuel plays a key role in determining the sequence of events and the amount of energy produced before neutronic shutdown. This paper discusses the general strategy used in modelong the various phenomena which lead to fuel relocation and presents the key fuel relocation models used in SAS4A. The implications of these models for the whole-core accident analysis as well as recent results of fuel relocation are emphasized. 12 refs

  2. [Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

  3. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  4. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  5. Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

    1982-01-01

    Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

  6. Accident considerations in LMFBR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, D.E.; Alter, H.; Fauske, H.K.; Hikido, K.; Keaten, R.W.; Stevenson, M.G.; Strawbridge, L.

    1975-12-01

    LMFBR safety design criteria are discussed from the standpoints of accident severity classification and damage criteria, and the following design events are considered: fuel failure propagation, reactivity addition faults, heat transport system events, steam generator faults, sodium spills, fuel handling and storage faults, and external events

  7. Tunnel nitrogen spill experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ageyev, A.I.; Alferov, V.N.; Mulholland, G.T.

    1983-01-01

    The Energy Saver Safety Analysis Report (SAR) found the tunnel oxygen deficiency considerations emphasized helium spills. These reports concluded the helium quickly warms and because of its low denisty, rises to the apex of the tunnel. The oxygen content below the apex and in all but the immediate vicinity of the helium spill is essentially unchanged and guarantees an undisturbed source of oxygen especially important to fallen personnel. In contrast nitrogen spills warm slower than helium due to the ratio of the enthalpy changes per unit volume spilled spread more uniformly across the tunnel cross-section when warmed because of the much smaller density difference with air, and generally provides a greater hazard than helium spills as a result. In particular there was concern that personnel that might fall to the floor for oxygen deficiency or other reasons might find less, and not more, oxygen with dire consequences. The SAR concluded tunnel nitrogen spills were under-investigated and led to this work

  8. Bohai and Yellow Sea Oil Spill Prediction System and Its Application to Huangdao ‘11.22’ Oil Spill Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huan; Li, Yan; Li, Cheng; Li, Wenshan; Wang, Guosong; Zhang, Song

    2017-08-01

    Marine oil spill has deep negative effect on both marine ecosystem and human activities. In recent years, due to China’s high-speed economic development, the demand for crude oil is increasing year by year in China, and leading to the high risk of marine oil spill. Therefore, it is necessary that promoting emergency response on marine oil spill in China and improving oil spill prediction techniques. In this study, based on oil spill model and GIS platform, we have developed the Bohai and Yellow sea oil spill prediction system. Combining with high-resolution meteorological and oceanographic forecast results, the system was applied to predict the drift and diffusion process of Huangdao ‘11.22’ oil spill incident. Although the prediction can’t be validated by some SAR images due to the lack of satellite observations, it still provided effective and referable oil spill behavior information to Maritime Safety Administration.

  9. Tourism and its hypersensitivity to oil spills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles

    2015-02-15

    The sinking of the Don Pedro merchant ship in 2007 near the island of Ibiza is a good example of the extreme sensitivity of the tourism sector to oil spills. Despite the limited scale of the spill (only some 20 tonnes), its minimal ecological impact, and the rapid deployment of personnel and equipment to contain it, the accident nonetheless caused significant economic damage to the island's tourism sector. This particular case demonstrates the importance of the beach as a factor of production in the holiday tourism sector, and the capacity of even small amounts of oil to render it unusable and cause heavy losses to holiday firms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. [Guilty victims: a model to perpetuate impunity for work-related accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia; Iguti, Aparecida Mari; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz

    2004-01-01

    This article analyzes reports and data from the investigation of severe and fatal work-related accidents by the Regional Institute of Criminology in Piracicaba, São Paulo State, Brazil. Some 71 accident investigation reports were analyzed from 1998, 1999, and 2000. Accidents involving machinery represented 38.0% of the total, followed by high falls (15.5%), and electric shocks (11.3%). The reports conclude that 80.0% of the accidents are caused by "unsafe acts" committed by workers themselves, while the lack of safety or "unsafe conditions" account for only 15.5% of cases. Victims are blamed even in situations involving high risk in which not even minimum safety conditions are adopted, thus favoring employers' interests. Such conclusions reflect traditional reductionist explanatory models, in which accidents are viewed as simple, unicausal phenomena, generally focused on slipups and errors by the workers themselves. Despite criticism in recent decades from the technical and academic community, this concept is still hegemonic, thus jeopardizing the development of preventive policies and the improvement of work conditions.

  11. [Prevention of occupational accidents with biological material as per Green and Kreuter Model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manetti, Marcela Luisa; da Costa, João Carlos Souza; Marziale, Maria Helena Palucci; Trovó, Marli Elisa

    2006-03-01

    This study aimed at diagnosing the occurrence of occupational accidents deriving from exposition to biological substance among workers of a hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, analyzing the adopted safety measures and elaborating a flowchart of preventive actions according to the Health Promotion Model by Green and Kreuter. It is an exploratory study with data collected electronically from the website REPAT - Electronic Network for the Prevention of Occupational Accidents with biological substances. The strategy used by the hospital did not reduce the injures. Results were used to elaborate a flowchart of preventive actions in order to improve the workers' quality of life.

  12. Code package {open_quotes}SVECHA{close_quotes}: Modeling of core degradation phenomena at severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veshchunov, M.S.; Kisselev, A.E.; Palagin, A.V. [Nuclear Safety Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation)] [and others

    1995-09-01

    The code package SVECHA for the modeling of in-vessel core degradation (CD) phenomena in severe accidents is being developed in the Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Science (NSI RAS). The code package presents a detailed mechanistic description of the phenomenology of severe accidents in a reactor core. The modules of the package were developed and validated on separate effect test data. These modules were then successfully implemented in the ICARE2 code and validated against a wide range of integral tests. Validation results have shown good agreement with separate effect tests data and with the integral tests CORA-W1/W2, CORA-13, PHEBUS-B9+.

  13. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  14. Synthesis of the models used in France for the evaluation of the consequences of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crabol, B.

    1992-01-01

    In order to evaluate the consequences of an atmospheric release in case of an accident on a nuclear installation, different predictive models have been developed by the organizations involved in the management of the crisis. These models are of different numerical complexity: precalculated graphs, gaussian puff models or 3D models. The harmonization of these models, the definition of their use, notably in the first phases of the accident (predictive and real-time phases) have been discussed in a working group including representants of the utility, the safety authorities and the Meteorological Office. The reflexions of the group, the models already operational, those still under discussion and their use in the different technical crisis centers are presented

  15. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  16. Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1980-05-01

    A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar

  17. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  18. The importance of trajectory modelling in accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.A.; Williams, J.A.; Hill, M.D.

    1988-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used at present or probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are linear: they take account of the wind speed but not the direction after the first hour. Therefore, the trajectory model is a more realistic description of the cloud's behaviour. However, the extra complexity means that the computing costs increase. This is an important factor for the MARIA code which is intended to be run on computers of varying power. The numbers of early effects predicted by a linear model and a trajectory model in a probabilistic risk assessment were compared to see which model should be preferred. The trajectory model predicted about 25% fewer expected early deaths and 30% more people evacuated than the linear model. However, the trajectory model took about ten times longer to calculate its results. The choice between the two models may depend on the speed of the computer available

  19. Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1981-01-01

    Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

  20. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  1. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of The Dalles Project: Effects of Spill Flow Distribution Between the Washington Shore and the Tailrace Spillwall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Serkowski, John A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2010-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Portland District (CENWP) has ongoing work to improve the survival of juvenile salmonids (smolt) migrating past The Dalles Dam. As part of that effort, a spillwall was constructed to improve juvenile egress through the tailrace downstream of the stilling basin. The spillwall was designed to improve smolt survival by decreasing smolt retention time in the spillway tailrace and the exposure to predators on the spillway shelf. The spillwall guides spillway flows, and hence smolt, more quickly into the thalweg. In this study, an existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was modified and used to characterize tailrace hydraulics between the new spillwall and the Washington shore for six different total river flows. The effect of spillway flow distribution was simulated for three spill patterns at the lowest total river flow. The commercial CFD solver, STAR-CD version 4.1, was used to solve the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations together with the k-epsilon turbulence model. Free surface motion was simulated using the volume-of-fluid (VOF) technique. The model results were used in two ways. First, results graphics were provided to CENWP and regional fisheries agency representatives for use and comparison to the same flow conditions at a reduced-scale physical model. The CFD results were very similar in flow pattern to that produced by the reduced-scale physical model but these graphics provided a quantitative view of velocity distribution. During the physical model work, an additional spill pattern was tested. Subsequently, that spill pattern was also simulated in the numerical model. The CFD streamlines showed that the hydraulic conditions were likely to be beneficial to fish egress at the higher total river flows (120 kcfs and greater, uniform flow distribution). At the lowest flow case, 90 kcfs, it was necessary to use a non-uniform distribution. Of the three distributions tested, splitting the flow evenly between

  2. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-09-01

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked separately

  3. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    On the evening of April 20, 2010, a well control event allowed hydrocarbons to escape from the Macondo well onto Transocean's Deepwater Horizon, resulting in explosions and fire on the rig. Eleven people lost their lives, and 17 others were injured. The fire, which was fed by hydrocarbons from the well, continued for 36 hours until the rig sank. Hydrocarbons continued to flow from the reservoir through the wellbore and the blowout preventer (BOP) for 87 days, causing a spill of national significance. BP Exploration and Production Inc. was the lease operator of Mississippi Canyon Block 252, which contains the Macondo well. BP formed an investigation team that was charged with gathering the facts surrounding the accident, analyzing available information to identify possible causes and making recommendations to enable prevention of similar accidents in the future. The BP investigation team began its work immediately in the aftermath of the accident, working independently from other BP spill response activities and organizations. The ability to gather information was limited by a scarcity of physical evidence and restricted access to potentially relevant witnesses. The team had access to partial real-time data from the rig, documents from various aspects of the Macondo well's development and construction, witness interviews and testimony from public hearings. The team used the information that was made available by other companies, including Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron. Over the course of the investigation, the team involved over 50 internal and external specialists from a variety of fields: safety, operations, subsea, drilling, well control, cementing, well flow dynamic modeling, BOP systems and process hazard analysis. This report presents an analysis of the events leading up to the accident, eight key findings related to the causal chain of events and recommendations to enable the prevention of a similar accident. The investigation team worked

  4. Comparison of US/FRG accident condition models for HTGR fuel failure and radionuclide release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.

    1991-03-01

    The objective was to compare calculation models used in safety analyses in the US and FRG which describe fission product release behavior from TRISO coated fuel particles under core heatup accident conditions. The frist step performed is the qualitative comparison of both sides' fuel failure and release models in order to identify differences and similarities in modeling assumptions and inputs. Assumptions of possible particle failure mechanisms under accident conditions (SiC degradation, pressure vessel) are principally the same on both sides though they are used in different modeling approaches. The characterization of a standard (= intact) coated particle to be of non-releasing (GA) or possibly releasing (KFA/ISF) type is one of the major qualitative differences. Similar models are used regarding radionuclide release from exposed particle kernels. In a second step, a quantitative comparison of the calculation models was made by assessing a benchmark problem predicting particle failure and radionuclide release under MHTGR conduction cooldown accident conditions. Calculations with each side's reference method have come to almost the same failure fractions after 250 hours for the core region with maximum core heatup temperature despite the different modeling approaches of SORS and PANAMA-I. The comparison of the results of particle failure obtained with the Integrated Failure and Release Model for Standard Particles and its revision provides a 'verification' of these models in this sense that the codes (SORS and PANAMA-II, and -III, respectively) which were independently developed lead to very good agreement in the predictions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Geographic information systems-based expert system modelling for shoreline sensitivity to oil spill disaster in Rivers State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of adequate and appropriate actions, hazards often result in disaster. Oil spills across any environment are very hazardous; thus, oil spill contingency planning is pertinent, supported by Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI mapping. However, a significant data gap exists across many low- and middle-income countries in aspect of environmental monitoring. This study developed a geographic information system (GIS-based expert system (ES for shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It focused on the biophysical attributes of the shoreline with Rivers State as a case study. Data on elevation, soil, relative wave exposure and satellite imageries were collated and used for the development of ES decision rules within GIS. Results show that about 70% of the shoreline are lined with swamp forest/mangroves/nympa palm, and 97% have silt and clay as dominant sediment type. From the ES, six ranks were identified; 61% of the shoreline has a rank of 9 and 19% has a rank of 3 for shoreline sensitivity. A total of 568 km out of the 728 km shoreline is highly sensitive (ranks 7–10. There is a clear indication that the study area is a complex mixture of sensitive environments to oil spill. GIS-based ES with classification rules for shoreline sensitivity represents a rapid and flexible framework for automatic ranking of shoreline sensitivity to oiling. It is expected that this approach would kick-start sensitivity index mapping which is comprehensive and openly available to support disaster risk management around the oil producing regions of the country.

  6. Development of the model for the stress calculation of fuel assembly under accident load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Il Kon

    1993-01-01

    The finite element model for the stress calculation in guide thimbles of a fuel assembly (FA) under seismic and loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) load is developed. For the stress calculation of FA under accident load, at first the program MAIN is developed to select the worst bending mode shaped FA from core model. And then the model for the stress calculation of FA is developed by means of the finite element code. The calculated results of program MAIN are used as the kinematic constraints of the finite element model of a FA. Compared the calculated results of the stiffness of the finite element model of FA with the test results they have good agreements. (Author)

  7. Decision model support of severity of injury traffic accident victims care by SAMU 192

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rackynelly Alves Sarmento Soares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents produce high morbidity and mortality in several countries, including Brazil. The initial care to victims of accidents, by a specialized team, has tools for evaluating the severity of trauma, which guide the priorities. This study aimed to develop a decision model applied to pre-hospital care, using the Abbreviated Injury Scale, to define the severity of the injury caused by the AT, as well to describe the features of accidents and their victims, occurred in Joao Pessoa, Paraiba. This is a descriptive epidemiological investigation, sectional, which analyzed all victims of traffic accidents attended by the SAMU 192, João Pessoa-PB, in January, April and June 2010. Data were collected in the medical regulation sheets of SAMU 192. Most of victims were male (76%, aged between 20 and 39 years (60%. Most injuries were classified as AIS1 (62.5%. The model of decision support implemented was the decision tree that managed to correctly classify 95.98% of the severity of injuries. By this model, it was possible to extract 29 rules of gravity classification of injury, which may be used for decision-making teams of the SAMU 192.

  8. Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

    2017-09-01

    Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

  9. Spills Action Centre summary report of 1995 spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-12-01

    A summary of spills reported to the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy during 1995 was presented. The Ministry's Spill Action Centre is on call 24-hours per day to receive and respond to reports of spills and other urgent environmental incidents. Some 5,000 spills were documented in 1995. Oils and fuels accounted for 59 per cent of the spilled materials, chemicals and chemical solutions for 17 per cent, wastes and waste waters for 16 per cent, and gaseous materials for 5 per cent. Unknown materials accounted for 3 per cent. Most of the spills involved small volumes. Equipment failure and operator error were the major reasons for spills. All occurrences reported are stored on a computerized database. The information is used to develop new pollution abatement programs and spill prevention initiatives as trends are identified. 14 tabs., 14 figs

  10. Modelling and numerical simulation of the gasoline containing alcohol spilling in the groundwaters; Modelagem e simulacao numerica do derramamento de gasolina acrescida de alcool em aguas subterraneas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cordazzo, Jonas; Maliska, Clovis R. [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mails: jonas@sinmec.ufsc.br; maliska@sinmec.ufsc.br; Corseuil, Henry X. [Santa Catarina Univ., Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Sanitaria e Ambiental]. E-mail: corseuil@ens.ufsc.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents a model and the respective two-dimensional numerical solution for the problem of pollutant spilling on the soil saturated region,in finite volumes, with first order biodegradation model. The model is adapted to the brazilian gasoline considering the ethanol influence on the biodegradation of the BTEX constituents and on the ethanol co-solvence in the gasoline phenomenon.The gasoline sorption effect is taken into consideration, when considering linear sorption. The numerically solved transport equation take into consideration the dispersion, advection, sorption and the biodegradation of the MTEX compounds and the ethanol, as well. The groundwater velocity field is numerically solved by using the Darcy equations, allowing the regions with different permeabilities to be considered.

  11. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  12. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heams, T.J.; Williams, D.A.; Johns, N.A.; Mason, A.; Bixler, N.E.; Grimley, A.J.; Wheatley, C.J.; Dickson, L.W.; Osborn-Lee, I.; Domagala, P.; Zawadzki, S.; Rest, J.; Alexander, C.A.; Lee, R.Y.

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided

  13. Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

  14. AN EFFECTIVE RISK-PREVENTIVE MODEL PROPOSAL FOR OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS AT SHIPYARDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozge Acuner

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available According to the statistics of occupational accidents, it is observed that the number of accidents occurred in shipbuilding industry is high and the rate of deaths and serious injuries among these accidents is higher than in other industries. However, the number of the studies to prevent these accidents in both industrial and scientific practices is considerably low. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an efficient risk preventive model in accordance with occupational health and safety regulations for industrial organizations. The approach proposed in this study differs from those described in the literature, because it is based on fuzzy set theory in order to cope with uncertainties on probability and severity definitions in terms of occupational health and safety. Furthermore, in this paper, risk severity is considered in terms of harm to worker, harm to environment, and harm to hardware, whereas in the literature, risk severity is generally considered solely in terms of only harm to worker. Then, risk magnitude is obtained by utilizing fuzzy inference system. The proposed approach is applied to a shipyard located in the Marmara Region in order to illustrate the applicability of the model.

  15. Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirkland, Karen Vierow [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Ross, Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Beeny, Bradley [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Luthman, Nicholas [Texas A& M Engineering Experiment Station, College Station, TX (United States); Strater, Zachary [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2017-12-23

    The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that the system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.

  16. When oil spills emulsify

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobra, M.; Fingas, M.; Tennyson, E.

    1992-01-01

    Cleanup operations of oil spills must take into account the numerous detrimental effects attributable to the emulsification of spilled oil into a stable water-in-oil mousse. The incorporation of water greatly increases the volume of the polluted material. The viscous nature of mousse impedes the efficient operation of most mechanical recovery equipment and results in a cohesive slick that resists dispersion, both natural and artificial. The rate at which spilled oil emulsifies determines the effective window of opportunity for specific countermeasures. Much has been learned from previous studies on petroleum emulsification, but is still remain a poorly understood phenomenon. Although most crude oils can be emulsified, not all spills result in the formation of stable mousse. The formation of mousse results from a complex series of processes. Whether an oil will form mousse or not, and if so, at what rate, depends on an array of different factors including the properties of the oil and the prevailing environmental conditions. We need a greater understanding of the emulsification process to better predict the emulsification behavior of oil spills and utilize the most appropriate countermeasures available. In this paper, the authors report on work to elucidate the role that physicochemical factors play in determining an oil's tendency to emulsify. The authors studied the emulsification behavior of oils of known composition to examine the importance of oil chemistry in the emulsification process

  17. Improved point-kinetics model for the BWR control rod drop accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neogy, P.; Wakabayashi, T.; Carew, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    A simple prescription to account for spatial feedback weighting effects in RDA (rod drop accident) point-kinetics analyses has been derived and tested. The point-kinetics feedback model is linear in the core peaking factor, F/sub Q/, and in the core average void fraction and fuel temperature. Comparison with detailed spatial kinetics analyses indicates that the improved point-kinetics model provides an accurate description of the BWR RDA

  18. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  19. Operator modeling of a loss-of-pumping accident using MicroSAINT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, L.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) human factors group has been developing methods for analyzing nuclear reactor operator actions during hypothetical design-basis accident scenarios. The SRL reactors operate at a lower temperature and pressure than power reactors resulting in accident sequences that differ from those of power reactors. Current methodology development is focused on modeling control room operator response times dictated by system event times specified in the Savannah River Site Reactor Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The modeling methods must be flexible enough to incorporate changes to hardware, procedures, or postulated system event times and permit timely evaluation. The initial model developed was for the loss-of-pumping accident (LOPA) because a significant number of operator actions are required to respond to this postulated event. Human factors engineers had been researching and testing a network modeling simulation language called MicroSAINT to simulate operators' personal and interpersonal actions relative to operating system events. The LOPA operator modeling project demonstrated the versatility and flexibility of MicroSAINT for modeling control room crew interactions

  20. German offsite accident consequence model for nuclear facilities: further development and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, A.

    1985-01-01

    The German Offsite Accident Consequence Model - first applied in the German Risk Study for nuclear power plants with light water reactors - has been further developed with the improvement of several important submodels in the areas of atmospheric dispersion, shielding effects of houses, and the foodchains. To aid interpretation, the presentation of results has been extended with special emphasis on the presentation of the loss of life expectancy. The accident consequence model has been further developed for application to risk assessments for other nuclear facilities, e.g., the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (SNR-300) and the high temperature gas cooled reactor. Moreover the model have been further developed in the area of optimal countermeasure strategies (sheltering, evacuation, etc.) in the case of the Central European conditions. Preliminary considerations has been performed in connection with safety goals on the basis of doses

  1. Spill reporting and prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swiss, J.J.

    1997-01-01

    The actions that companies in British Columbia are required to take to comply with spill reporting requirements and with the waste management legislation of the B.C. Waste Management Act were discussed. A company's ability to respond effectively to hazardous materials spills depends on three factors: (1) understanding the regulatory requirements, (2) having an emergency response capability, and (3) having a staff trained to exercise those responsibilities. The steps involved in complying with the legislation were outlined . The types and quantities of spilled material that must be reported were listed, and advice was given on how a company can effectively incorporate emergency planning into its Environmental Health and Safety Management System. Responsibilities of the the individual designated as the on-scene commander were also spelled out. 3 tabs

  2. Oil spill response plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-08-01

    The plan outlined in this document specifies the actions that the Canadian Wildlife Service Atlantic Region is mandated to take in the event of an oil spill, or on discovering oiled migratory birds in terrestrial, fresh water, marine and inter-tidal habitats. In addition to describing the role and responsibilities of the Canadian Wildlife Service, the document also describes response plans of other agencies for dealing with all wildlife species affected by oil spills. Reporting paths, the lead agency concept, shared responsibilities with other Canadian Wildlife Service regional offices, provincial agencies, Heritage Canada, non-government wildlife response agencies, oil spill response organizations, and international organizations are outlined. An overview of the reporting and communications process is also provided

  3. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  4. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  5. @iMaersk navigator@@ oil spill in the great channel (Andaman Sea) in January 1993 and its environmental impact

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SenGupta, R.; Fondekar, S.P.; Shailaja, M.S.; Sankaranarayanan, V.N.

    Observations on oil slicks, tar residues and dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons (DPH) shortly after the oil spill resulting from the tanker accident in January 1993 showed negligible impact on the Indian EEZ of the Great Channel (Andaman Sea). DPH...

  6. Maersk navigator oil spill in the great channel (Andaman Sea) in January 1993 and its environmental impact

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SenGupta, R.; Fondekar, S.P.; Shailaja, M.S.; Sankaranarayanan, V.N.

    Observations on oil slicks, tar residues and dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons (DPH) shortly after the oil spill resulting from the tanker accident in January 1993 showed negligible impact on the Indian EEZ of the Great Channel (Andaman Sea). DPH...

  7. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jun; Mccabe, Mckinleigh; Wu, Lei; Dong, Xiaomeng; Wang, Xianmao; Haskin, Troy Christopher; Corradini, Michael L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  8. Accident tolerant clad material modeling by MELCOR: Benchmark for SURRY Short Term Station Black Out

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jun, E-mail: jwang564@wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Mccabe, Mckinleigh [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wu, Lei [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Dong, Xiaomeng [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Wang, Xianmao [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Haskin, Troy Christopher [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States); Corradini, Michael L., E-mail: corradini@engr.wisc.edu [College of Engineering, The University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison 53706 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Thermo-physical and oxidation kinetics properties calculation and analysis of FeCrAl. • Properties modelling of FeCrAl in MELCOR. • Benchmark calculation of Surry nuclear power plant. - Abstract: Accident tolerant fuel and cladding materials are being investigated to provide a greater resistance to fuel degradation, oxidation and melting if long-term cooling is lost in a Light Water Reactor (LWR) following an accident such as a Station Blackout (SBO) or Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Researchers at UW-Madison are analyzing an SBO sequence and examining the effect of a loss of auxiliary feedwater (AFW) with the MELCOR systems code. Our research work considers accident tolerant cladding materials (e.g., FeCrAl alloy) and their effect on the accident behavior. We first gathered the physical properties of this alternative cladding material via literature review and compared it to the usual zirconium alloys used in LWRs. We then developed a model for the Surry reactor for a Short-term SBO sequence and examined the effect of replacing FeCrAl for Zircaloy cladding. The analysis uses MELCOR, Version 1.8.6 YR, which is developed by Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with MELCOR developers at Sandia National Laboratories. This version allows the user to alter the cladding material considered, and our study examines the behavior of the FeCrAl alloy as a substitute for Zircaloy. Our benchmark comparisons with the Sandia National Laboratory’s analysis of Surry using MELCOR 1.8.6 and the more recent MELCOR 2.1 indicate good overall agreement through the early phases of the accident progression. When FeCrAl is substituted for Zircaloy to examine its performance, we confirmed that FeCrAl slows the accident progression and reduce the amount of hydrogen generated. Our analyses also show that this special version of MELCOR can be used to evaluate other potential ATF cladding materials, e.g., SiC as well as innovative coatings on zirconium cladding

  9. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  10. Oil spill problems and sustainable response strategies through new technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivshina, Irena B; Kuyukina, Maria S; Krivoruchko, Anastasiya V; Elkin, Andrey A; Makarov, Sergey O; Cunningham, Colin J; Peshkur, Tatyana A; Atlas, Ronald M; Philp, James C

    2015-07-01

    Crude oil and petroleum products are widespread water and soil pollutants resulting from marine and terrestrial spillages. International statistics of oil spill sizes for all incidents indicate that the majority of oil spills are small (less than 7 tonnes). The major accidents that happen in the oil industry contribute only a small fraction of the total oil which enters the environment. However, the nature of accidental releases is that they highly pollute small areas and have the potential to devastate the biota locally. There are several routes by which oil can get back to humans from accidental spills, e.g. through accumulation in fish and shellfish, through consumption of contaminated groundwater. Although advances have been made in the prevention of accidents, this does not apply in all countries, and by the random nature of oil spill events, total prevention is not feasible. Therefore, considerable world-wide effort has gone into strategies for minimising accidental spills and the design of new remedial technologies. This paper summarizes new knowledge as well as research and technology gaps essential for developing appropriate decision-making tools in actual spill scenarios. Since oil exploration is being driven into deeper waters and more remote, fragile environments, the risk of future accidents becomes much higher. The innovative safety and accident prevention approaches summarized in this paper are currently important for a range of stakeholders, including the oil industry, the scientific community and the public. Ultimately an integrated approach to prevention and remediation that accelerates an early warning protocol in the event of a spill would get the most appropriate technology selected and implemented as early as possible - the first few hours after a spill are crucial to the outcome of the remedial effort. A particular focus is made on bioremediation as environmentally harmless, cost-effective and relatively inexpensive technology. Greater

  11. Spill response trade-offs in a very large spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulze, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper examines the physical limitaions on spill encounter rate and how these limitaions affect the are that can be covered in spill response. Since mechanical recovery devices may not be able to cover the affected area in a large spill, in situ burning must be considered as a response option. Further, effective recovered oil logistics is essential to successful response operations and keeping skimmers operating. A successful spill response effort in a very large oil spill often depends on: Prompt response, Skimmer encounter rate, Making a decision for in situ burning, Recovered oil logistics

  12. Proceedings of the nineteenth arctic and marine oil spill program (AMOP) technical seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The technical seminar on arctic and marine oil spills introduced issues concerning oil spills at sea, in particular the critical first few hours of an oil spill. State-of-the-art technologies which assist the response team in tracking and predicting the behavior of oil spills, were described. The physical and chemical properties of spilled oil were studied, as well as those of oil spill treating agents, including testing their biological effects. New methods to contain and recover spilled oil were reviewed. Volume 2 presented results from field experiments in which in-situ burning was performed, and demonstrated modelling techniques for the detection, prediction and tracking of oil spills. refs., tabs., figs

  13. Self-similar distribution of oil spills in European coastal waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, Jose M; Platonov, Alexei K

    2009-01-01

    Marine pollution has been highlighted thanks to the advances in detection techniques as well as increasing coverage of catastrophes (e.g. the oil tankers Amoco Cadiz, Exxon Valdez, Erika, and Prestige) and of smaller oil spills from ships. The new satellite based sensors SAR and ASAR and new methods of oil spill detection and analysis coupled with self-similar statistical techniques allow surveys of environmental pollution monitoring large areas of the ocean. We present a statistical analysis of more than 700 SAR images obtained during 1996-2000, also comparing the detected small pollution events with the historical databases of great marine accidents during 1966-2004 in European coastal waters. We show that the statistical distribution of the number of oil spills as a function of their size corresponds to Zipf's law, and that the common small spills are comparable to the large accidents due to the high frequency of the smaller pollution events. Marine pollution from tankers and ships, which has been detected as oil spills between 0.01 and 100 km 2 , follows the marine transit routes. Multi-fractal methods are used to distinguish between natural slicks and spills, in order to estimate the oil spill index in European coastal waters, and in particular, the north-western Mediterranean Sea, which, due to the influence of local winds, shows optimal conditions for oil spill detection.

  14. OSIS: A PC-based oil spill information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leech, M.V.; Tyler, A.; Wiltshire, M.

    1993-01-01

    Warren Spring Laboratory and BMT Ceemaid Ltd. are cooperating to produce an Oil Spill Information System (OSIS) that will have worldwide application. OSIS is based on EUROSPILL, a spill simulation model originally developed under programs sponsored by the European Commission and the Marine Pollution Control Unit of the United Kingdom government's Department of Transport. OSIS is implemented in the Microsoft Windows 3.x graphical environment on a personal computer. A variety of options enables the user to input information on continuous or instantaneous spills of different types of oil under variable environmental conditions, to simulate the fate of oil and the trajectory of a spill. Model results are presented in the forms of maps, charts, graphs, and tables, displayed in multiple windows on a color monitor. Color hard copy can be produced, and OSIS can be linked to other Windows software packages, providing the opportunity to create a suite of spill incident management tools

  15. Identification of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents in LWRs by Inverse Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cholewa, Wojciech; Frid, Wiktor; Bednarski, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a novel diagnostic method based on inverse models that could be applied to identification of transients and accidents in nuclear power plants. In particular, it is shown that such models could be successfully applied to identification of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). This is demonstrated for LOCA scenarios for a boiling water reactor. Two classes of inverse models are discussed: local models valid only in a selected neighborhood of an unknown element in the data set, representing a state of a considered object, and global models, in the form of partially unilateral models, valid over the whole learning data set. An interesting and useful property of local inverse models is that they can be considered as example-based models, i.e., models that are spanned on particular sets of pattern data. It is concluded that the optimal diagnostic method should combine the advantages of both models, i.e., the high quality of results obtained from a local inverse model and the information about the confidence interval for the expected output provided by a partially unilateral model

  16. Human reliability data, human error and accident models--illustration through the Three Mile Island accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bot, Pierre

    2004-01-01

    Our first objective is to provide a panorama of Human Reliability data used in EDF's Safety Probabilistic Studies, and then, since these concepts are at the heart of Human Reliability and its methods, to go over the notion of human error and the understanding of accidents. We are not sure today that it is actually possible to provide in this field a foolproof and productive theoretical framework. Consequently, the aim of this article is to suggest potential paths of action and to provide information on EDF's progress along those paths which enables us to produce the most potentially useful Human Reliability analyses while taking into account current knowledge in Human Sciences. The second part of this article illustrates our point of view as EDF researchers through the analysis of the most famous civil nuclear accident, the Three Mile Island unit accident in 1979. Analysis of this accident allowed us to validate our positions regarding the need to move, in the case of an accident, from the concept of human error to that of systemic failure in the operation of systems such as a nuclear power plant. These concepts rely heavily on the notion of distributed cognition and we will explain how we applied it. These concepts were implemented in the MERMOS Human Reliability Probabilistic Assessment methods used in the latest EDF Probabilistic Human Reliability Assessment. Besides the fact that it is not very productive to focus exclusively on individual psychological error, the design of the MERMOS method and its implementation have confirmed two things: the significance of qualitative data collection for Human Reliability, and the central role held by Human Reliability experts in building knowledge about emergency operation, which in effect consists of Human Reliability data collection. The latest conclusion derived from the implementation of MERMOS is that, considering the difficulty in building 'generic' Human Reliability data in the field we are involved in, the best

  17. Improved atmospheric dispersion modelling in the new program system UFOMOD for accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straightline Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different concepts of dispersion modelling on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been carried out. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that these trajectory models provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completly novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling which distinguish between two different distance ranges of validity: the near range ( 50 km). The two ranges are assigned to respective trajectory models

  18. Models and methods for predicting the release of fission products during hypothetical accidents in HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailly, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    The paper deals with experiments, computational models and methods used to describe the fission product transport (diffusion and particle failure) in the fuel elements of a pebble-bed high-temperature module reactor (HTGR Module) during hypothetical accidents. The codes which describe the diffusion of fission products in the fuel elements are e.g. GETTER and FRESCO. PANAMA, IA/KWU failure function and the so called GOODIN models describe the particle failure. All these models may be used in the risk analysis. The experimental results obtained at the Nuclear Research Center Julich, Germany are discussed and compared with the model calculations for these experiments

  19. Modeling of Spray System Operation under Hydrogen and Steam Emissions in NPP Containment during Severe Accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim E. Seleznev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes one of the variants of mathematical models of a fluid dynamics process inside the containment, which occurs in the conditions of operation of spray systems in severe accidents at nuclear power plant. The source of emergency emissions in this case is the leak of the coolant or rupture at full cross-section of the main circulating pipeline in a reactor building. Leak or rupture characteristics define the localization and the temporal law of functioning of a source of emergency emission (or accrued operating of warmed up hydrogen and steam in the containment. Operation of this source at the course of analyzed accident models should be described by the assignment of the relevant Dirichlet boundary conditions. Functioning of the passive autocatalytic recombiners of hydrogen is described in the form of the complex Newton boundary conditions.

  20. Accident consequence analysis models applied to licensing process of nuclear installations, radioactive and conventional industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senne Junior, Murillo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    The industrial accidents happened in the last years, particularly in the eighty's decade, had contributed in a significant way to call the attention to government authorities, industry and society as a whole, demanding mechanisms for preventing episodes that could affect people's safety and environment quality. Techniques and methods already thoroughly used in the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries were then adapted for performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. Some models for analyzing the consequences of accidents involving fire and explosion, used in the licensing processes of nuclear and radioactive facilities, are presented in this paper. These models have also application in the licensing of conventional industrial facilities. (author)

  1. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

    2013-12-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  3. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing-season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

  4. The breakup of oil spills in the marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeidan, E.; Zahariev, K.; Li, M.; Garrett, C.

    1997-01-01

    Existing theories of oil slick disintegration under stormy conditions were examined. A novel empirical model suitable for use in oil spill models was developed in an effort to demonstrate the many difficulties encountered in modeling the emulsification process. Chief among the difficulties is the prediction of the onset and extent of oil spill emulsification. The empirical model was described in some detail using surface active constituents and energy available from wind and waves as the controlling parameters. The resulting chart, if used in the marine environment, can predict localized emulsification and a more realistic behaviour of oil spills. 43 refs., 6 figs

  5. A drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riewpaiboon A

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop a drug cost model for injuries due to road traffic accidents for patients receiving treatment at a regional hospital in Thailand. Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive analysis. The cases were all from road traffic accidents receiving treatment at a public regional hospital in the fiscal year 2004. Results: Three thousand seven hundred and twenty-three road accident patients were included in the study. The mean drug cost per case was USD18.20 (SD=73.49, median=2.36. The fitted drug cost model had an adjusted R2 of 0.449. The positive significant predictor variables of drug costs were prolonged length of stay, age over 30 years old, male, Universal Health Coverage Scheme, time of accident during 18:00-24:00 o’clock, and motorcycle comparing to bus. To forecast the drug budget for 2006, there were two approaches identified, the mean drug cost and the predicted average drug cost. The predicted average drug cost was calculated based on the forecasted values of statistically significant (p<0.05 predictor variables included in the fitted model; predicted total drug cost was USD44,334. Alternatively, based on the mean cost, predicted total drug cost in 2006 was USD63,408. This was 43% higher than the figure based on the predicted cost approach.Conclusions: The planned budget of drug cost based on the mean cost and predicted average cost were meaningfully different. The application of a predicted average cost model could result in a more accurate budget planning than that of a mean statistic approach.

  6. Modeling and analyses of postulated UF6 release accidents in gaseous diffusion plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.H.; Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Keith, K.D.; Schmidt, R.W.; Carter, J.C.; Dyer, R.H.

    1995-10-01

    Computer models have been developed to simulate the transient behavior of aerosols and vapors as a result of a postulated accident involving the release of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) into the process building of a gaseous diffusion plant. UF 6 undergoes an exothermic chemical reaction with moisture (H 2 O) in the air to form hydrogen fluoride (HF) and radioactive uranyl fluoride (UO 2 F 2 ). As part of a facility-wide safety evaluation, this study evaluated source terms consisting of UO 2 F 2 as well as HF during a postulated UF 6 release accident in a process building. In the postulated accident scenario, ∼7900 kg (17,500 lb) of hot UF 6 vapor is released over a 5 min period from the process piping into the atmosphere of a large process building. UO 2 F 2 mainly remains as airborne-solid particles (aerosols), and HF is in a vapor form. Some UO 2 F 2 aerosols are removed from the air flow due to gravitational settling. The HF and the remaining UO 2 F 2 are mixed with air and exhausted through the building ventilation system. The MELCOR computer code was selected for simulating aerosols and vapor transport in the process building. MELCOR model was first used to develop a single volume representation of a process building and its results were compared with those from past lumped parameter models specifically developed for studying UF 6 release accidents. Preliminary results indicate that MELCOR predicted results (using a lumped formulation) are comparable with those from previously developed models

  7. A model of how features of construction projects influence accident occurrence

    OpenAIRE

    Manu, P.

    2017-01-01

    This book chapter in "Valuing People in Construction" (edited by Emuze, F. and Smallwood, J.) presents a study which sought empirical verification of a model of how construction project features (CPFs) influence accident occurrence. A qualitative strategy, in particular phenomenology, involving a range of in-depth interviews with practitioners was used and the findings were subsequently validated using a credibility check involving a survey. Altogether, the findings of the interviews and cred...

  8. Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of melt-structure-water interactions in a light water reactor severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bui, V.A

    1998-10-01

    The objective of this work is to address the modeling of the thermal hydrodynamic phenomena and interactions occurring during the progression of reactor severe accidents. Integrated phenomenological models are developed to describe the accident scenarios, which consist of many processes, while mechanistic modeling, including direct numerical simulation, is carried out to describe separate effects and selected physical phenomena of particular importance 88 refs, 54 figs, 7 tabs

  9. The development and demonstration of integrated models for the evaluation of severe accident management strategies - SAMEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ang, M.L.; Peers, K.; Kersting, E.; Fassmann, W.; Tuomisto, H.; Lundstroem, P.; Helle, M.; Gustavsson, V.; Jacobsson, P.

    2001-01-01

    This study is concerned with the further development of integrated models for the assessment of existing and potential severe accident management (SAM) measures. This paper provides a brief summary of these models, based on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods and the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) approach, and their application to a number of case studies spanning both preventive and mitigative accident management regimes. In the course of this study it became evident that the starting point to guide the selection of methodology and any further improvement is the intended application. Accordingly, such features as the type and area of application and the confidence requirement are addressed in this project. The application of an integrated ROAAM approach led to the implementation, at the Loviisa NPP, of a hydrogen mitigation strategy, which requires substantial plant modifications. A revised level 2 PSA model was applied to the Sizewell B NPP to assess the feasibility of the in-vessel retention strategy. Similarly the application of PSA based models was extended to the Barseback and Ringhals 2 NPPs to improve the emergency operating procedures, notably actions related to manual operations. A human reliability analysis based on the Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) and Technique For Human Error Rate (THERP) models was applied to a case study addressing secondary and primary bleed and feed procedures. Some aspects pertinent to the quantification of severe accident phenomena were further examined in this project. A comparison of the applications of PSA based approach and ROAAM to two severe accident issues, viz hydrogen combustion and in-vessel retention, was made. A general conclusion is that there is no requirement for further major development of the PSA and ROAAM methodologies in the modelling of SAM strategies for a variety of applications as far as the technical aspects are concerned. As is demonstrated in this project, the

  10. Oil spill recovery technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nash, J.; Cooper, W.; Nee, V.; Nigim, H.

    1992-01-01

    Current deficiencies in oil spill cleanup processes have resulted in research and development of new cleanup technologies at the University of Notre Dame. Emphasis on reducing, reusing and recycling equipment and waste at a cleanup site has prompted advances in oil recovery technology as well as improvement in sorbent materials. (author)

  11. Don't Cry over Spilled Water: Identifying Risks and Solutions for Produced Water Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shores, Amanda Rose

    Resource requirements and future energy generation requires careful evaluation, particularly due to climate change and water scarcity. This thesis discusses one aspect of energy generation linked to water; oil-and-gas extraction and the large volumes of waste water produced, otherwise known as "produced water". This research focuses on surface spills of produced water, their ramifications, safeguards against groundwater contamination at spill sites and potential remediation strategies. Produced water contains a variety of contaminants that include the group of known toxins, BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene), and high salt concentrations. A combination of factors such as large volumes of generated produced water, the need for storage and transportation across large distances and the toxic-and-mobile nature of produced water constituents creates risks for spills that can pollute groundwater. Spills occur regularly, particularly in Weld County, Colorado, where the demand for natural gas is high. To answer spill-related hypotheses, a multitude of methodology were employed: modeling, greenhouse experimentation, gas chromatography and summarization of spill reports and statistical analyses. Using publically available spill data, this research found that the frequency of oil-and-gas related spills and the average spilled volume has increased in Weld County from 2011-2015. Additionally, the number of spills that have resulted in groundwater contamination has increased in the area. By focusing on the oil-and-gas operators responsible for these spills, a linear relationship was found between the volumes of oil-and-gas produced compared to the volumes of produced-water generated. However, larger oil-and-gas producers did not show a linear relationship between oil-and-gas produced and produced-water generated, such that larger producers were more efficient and generated less water per unit of energy. So while scale-up efficiency seems to exist for produced

  12. Interspecific introgression and changes in population structure in a flatfish species complex after the Prestige accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crego-Prieto, V.; Danancher, D.; Campo, D.; Perez, J.; Garcia-Vazquez, E.; Roca, A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Impact of Prestige oil spill was studied on two sympatric megrim fish populations. • Samples before and nine years after the accident were genetically analyzed. • A large proportion of post-F1 interspecific hybrids was found in the polluted area. • Both species’ population structure was altered by introgression of foreign alleles. • The spillage likely promoted a hybrid zone for Lepidorhombus in the areas affected. -- Abstract: Oil spills cause aggressive impacts on marine ecosystems affecting immense areas and the species inhabiting them. If wastes are not cleaned up properly, the remnants may affect local populations for a long time. This work focuses on the long-term impacts of the Prestige spillage that occurred off Galician coast (Spain) in November 2002. Model species were two sympatric flatfish, the megrims Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis and Lepidorhombus boscii. Samples obtained before and nine years after the Prestige accident from affected and unaffected areas were genotyped for six hypervariable nuclear markers and for the mitochondrial D-loop sequence. The results revealed a high proportion of post-F1 interspecific hybrids in the area affected, and also increased intraspecific population differentiation likely due to such localized introgression of foreign genes. These changes suggest the appearance of a hybrid zone following the accident and emphasize the need of paying special attention to potential evolutionary impacts of oil spills

  13. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  14. M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

    2016-11-01

    This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Allocation of multiple, widely spread oil spills associated with one polluter : GC-MS fingerprinting and diagnostic ratios of spilled oil and oiled seabirds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, A.B.; Avnskjold, J.

    2005-01-01

    In January 2005, a Cypriot cargo ship leaked about 5 tons of heavy fuel bunker oil in Kerteminde Bay in the Great Belt, Denmark. The ship was stopped to inspect and collect oil samples from its 2 damaged tanks for forensic oil spill identification by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Two weeks following the accident, a series of waterborne and stranded oil spills showed up in the Great Belt area, north and south of the vessel's route. Thousands of oiled seabirds on small islands and coastlines were affected. The Danish Coast Guard suspected that the vessel might be responsible for the observed spills. More than 50 oil samples were collected and sent for forensic analysis at the National Environmental Research Institute. Both waterborne and stranded spill samples showed an almost perfect match of diagnostic ratios and chromatograph with the potential responsible party (PRP) bunker. The spill samples therefore matched the reference oil and were allocated to the spill associated with the Cypriot cargo ship. One sample deviated significantly from the other samples and was not allocated to the ship's accidental spill. Oil samples collected from oiled seabirds showed larger variations between diagnostic ratios and the reference bunker oils. The variations can be attributed to weathering and biodegradation, but also to contamination by non-petrogenic material. It was concluded that the oiled seabirds represented non-match samples that cannot be allocated to the oil spill associated with the Cypriot cargo ship. 14 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

  16. A Comparative analysis for control rod drop accident in RETRAN DNB and CETOP DNB Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chang Keun; Kim, Yo Han; Ha, Sang Jun

    2009-01-01

    In Korea, the nuclear industries such as fuel manufacturer, the architect engineer and the utility, have been using the methodologies and codes of vendors, such as Westinghouse(WH), Combustion Engineering, for the safety analyses of nuclear power plants. Consequently the industries have kept up the many organizations to operate the methodologies and to maintain the codes for each vendor. It may occur difficulty to improve the safety analyses efficiency and technology related. So, the necessity another of methodologies and code systems applicable to Non- LOCA, beyond design basis accident and performance analyses for all types of pressurized water reactor(PWR) has been raised. Due to the above reason, the Korea Electric Power Research Institute(KEPRI) had decided to develop the new safety analysis code system for Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plants in Korea. As the first requirement, the best-estimate codes were required for applicable wider application area and realistic behavior prediction of power plants with various and sophisticated functions. After the investigation for few candidates, RETRAN-3D has been chosen as a system analysis code. As a part of the feasibility estimation for the methodology and code system, CRD(Control Rod Drop) accident which an event of Non-LOCA accidents for Uljin units 3 and 4 and Yonggwang 1 and 2 was selected to verify the feasibility of the methodology using the RETRAN-3D. In this paper, RETRAN DNB Model and CETOP DNB Model were analyzed by using comparative method

  17. Thermal-hydraulic and aerosol containment phenomena modelling in ASTEC severe accident computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kljenak, Ivo; Dapper, Maik; Dienstbier, Jiri; Herranz, Luis E.; Koch, Marco K.; Fontanet, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Transients in containment systems of different scales (Phebus.FP containment, KAEVER vessel, Battelle Model Containment, LACE vessel and VVER-1000 nuclear power plant containment) involving thermal-hydraulic phenomena and aerosol behaviour, were simulated with the computer integral code ASTEC. The results of the simulations in the first four facilities were compared with experimental results, whereas the results of the simulated accident in the VVER-1000 containment were compared to results obtained with the MELCOR code. The main purpose of the simulations was the validation of the CPA module of the ASTEC code. The calculated results support the applicability of the code for predicting in-containment thermal-hydraulic and aerosol phenomena during a severe accident in a nuclear power plant.

  18. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G. [Internationale Atomreaktorbau G.m.b.H. (INTERATOM), Bergisch Gladbach (Germany, F.R.)

    1981-01-15

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen.

  19. A dynamic model for the study of evacuation under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, G.C.; Caracciolo, R.; Sepede, M.; Casiroli, F.; Rodriguez, R.

    1987-01-01

    Information techniques and models are being used to simulate the evacuation of people living around a nuclear power plant and these methods are being increasingly used for planning purposes. In this study vehicular mobility on a complex road network following an accident has been considered and applied to the specifications of the emergency plans. Simulation tests of the mobility relevant to different combinations of time and meteorological conditions have been undertaken through use of the computer code TRIPS in order to assess the impact on the road network of an accident situation and the preparedness measures. The study has led to a description of the accessibility time curves related to the population gathering centres and has enabled identification of the best routes in order to achieve the minimum travel time. (author)

  20. Model experiments on depressurisation accidents in nuclear process heat plants (HTGR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsching, G.; Wolf, G.

    1981-01-01

    The analysis of depressurisation accidents requires the use of digital computer programs to find out the dynamic loads acting on the plant structures. Because of the importance of such accidents in safety and licensing procedures of nuclear process heat plants, it is necessary to compare these computer results with suitable experiments to show the accuracy and the limits of the programs in question. For this purpose a series of depressurisation experiments has been started at INTERATOM on a small scale model of a primary loop of a nuclear process heat plant. Using the results of these experiments three different computer programs were tested with good success. The development of the experimental program and the estimation of the results was carried out in co-operation with KFA-Juelich and the Technische Hochschule Aachen

  1. Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

    2014-10-01

    This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  3. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, Orihiko; Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsuzuru, Hideo; Kobayashi, Sadayoshi

    1991-02-01

    A first version of models has been developed for predicting the number of occurrences of health effects induced by radiation exposure in nuclear reactor accidents. The models are based on the health effects models developed originally by Harvard University (NUREG/CR-4214). These models are revised on the basis of the new information on risk estimates by the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The models deal with the following effects: (1) early effects models for bone marrow, lungs, gastrointestinal tract, central nervous system, thyroid, skin and reproductive organs, using the Weibull function, (2) late somatic effects models including leukemia and cancers of breast, lungs, thyroid, gastrointestinal tract and so forth, on the basis of the information derived from epidemiological studies on the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, (3) models for late and developmental effects due to exposure in utero. (author)

  4. Modeling in fast dynamics of accidents in the primary circuit of PWR type reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robbe, M.F.

    2003-12-01

    Two kinds of accidents, liable to occur in the primary circuit of a Pressurized Water Reactor and involving fast dynamic phenomena, are analyzed. The Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) is the accident used to define the current PWR. It consists in a large-size break located in a pipe of the primary circuit. A blowdown wave propagates through the circuit. The pressure differences between the different zones of the reactor induce high stresses in the structures of the lower head and may degrade the reactor core. The primary circuit starts emptying from the break opening. Pressure decreases very quickly, involving a large steaming. Two thermal-hydraulic simulations of the blowdown phase of a LOCA are computed with the Europlexus code. The primary circuit is represented by a pipe-model including the hydraulic peculiarities of the circuit. The main differences between both computations concern the kind of reactor, the break location and model, and the initialization of the accidental operation. Steam explosion is a hypothetical severe accident liable to happen after a core melting. The molten part of the core (called corium) falls in the lower part of the reactor. The interaction between the hot corium and the cold water remaining at the bottom of the vessel induces a massive and violent vaporization of water, similar to an explosive phenomenon. A shock wave propagates in the vessel. what can damage seriously the neighbouring structures or drill the vessel. This work presents a synthesis of in-vessel parametrical studies carried out with the Europlexus code, the linkage of the thermal-hydraulic code Mc3d dedicated to the pre-mixing phase with the Europlexus code dealing with the explosion, and finally a benchmark between the Cigalon and Europlexus codes relative to the Vulcano mock-up. (author)

  5. A Model for Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on Driver Personality Traits Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Čubranić-Dobrodolac

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The model proposed in this paper uses four psychological instruments for assessing driver behaviour and personality traits aiming to find a relationship between the considered constructs and the occurrence of traffic accidents. A Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 was used for the assessment of impulsivity, Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ for assessing the aggressiveness while driving, Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ and the Questionnaire for self-assessment of driving ability. Besides these instruments, the participants filled out an extensive demographic survey. Within the statistical analysis, in addition to the descriptive indicators, correlation coefficients were calculated and four hierarchical regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive power of personality traits on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Further, to confirm the results and to obtain additional information about the relationship between the considered variables, the structural equation modelling and binary logistic regression have been implemented. A sample of this research covered 305 drivers, of which there were 100 bus drivers and 102 truck drivers, as well as 103 drivers of privately owned vehicles. The results indicate that BIS-11 and ADBQ questionnaires show the best predictive power which means that impulsivity and aggressiveness as personality traits have the greatest influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. This research could be useful in many fields, such as the design of selection procedures for professional drivers, development of programs for the prevention of traffic accidents and violations of law, rehabilitation of drivers who have been deprived of the driving license, etc.

  6. Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

    2016-01-01

    Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

  7. Impact study of oil spill on mangrove areas of Sergipe State, Brazilian northeast; Estudo de impacto do derramamento de oleo em areas de manguezal do estado de Sergipe, nordeste do Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nascimento, Solange A. [ADEMA, Aracaju, SE (Brazil)

    1993-12-31

    Results of studies during six years, on oil spills, Cotinguiba River region, caused by an accident on the Fazenda Santa Cruz, Sergipe, are presented. The environmental impacts, oil spill consequences on the mangrove areas affected by the accident, its flora and fauna development, Water Ph measurement, and environmental characteristics are also debated. 6 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Effects of neutron streaming and geometric models on molten fuel recriticality accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, T.P.

    1975-10-01

    A postulated fast reactor accident which has been extant for many years is a recriticality following partial or complete core melting. Independently of the cause or probability of such a situation, certain cases can be defined and some facets of the dynamic history of these cases can be described with more than enough accuracy for safety considerations. Calculations were made with the PAD code for systems with 10 vol percent voids and varying reactivity insertion rates. Additionally, two distinct geometric and equation of state models were investigated in conjunction with a model which accounted for possible neutron streaming reactivity effects. Significant results include fission and kinetic energy, temperatures and pressures

  9. Development of hydrogeological modelling approaches for assessment of consequences of hazardous accidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumynin, V.G.; Mironenko, V.A.; Konosavsky, P.K.; Pereverzeva, S.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper introduces some modeling approaches for predicting the influence of hazardous accidents at nuclear reactors on groundwater quality. Possible pathways for radioactive releases from nuclear power plants were considered to conceptualize boundary conditions for solving the subsurface radionuclides transport problems. Some approaches to incorporate physical-and-chemical interactions into transport simulators have been developed. The hydrogeological forecasts were based on numerical and semi-analytical scale-dependent models. They have been applied to assess the possible impact of the nuclear power plants designed in Russia on groundwater reservoirs

  10. Utilization of dose assessment models to facilitate off-site recovery operations for accidents at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, M.H.; Foster, K.T.

    1989-09-01

    One of the most important uses of dose assessment models in response to accidents at nuclear facilities is to help provide guidance to emergency response managers for identifying, and mitigating, the consequences of an accident once the accident has been terminated. By combining results from assessment models with radiological measurements, a qualitative methodology can be developed to aid emergency response managers in determining the total dose received by the population and to minimize future doses through the use of mitigation procedures. To illustrate the methodology, this discussion focuses on the use of models to estimate the dose delivered to the public both during and after a nuclear accident. 4 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  11. Comparison of the foodchain transport models of WASH-1400 and MARC using the accident consequence model UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhauer, C.

    1985-04-01

    Within the frame of the contract with the European Community 'Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents' (CEC-MARIA) comparative accident consequence assessments were performed with the computer code UFOMOD, replacing the currently implemented foodchain transport model of the WASH-1400 study by the dynamic transport model of the MARC methodology. The calculations were based on the release category FK2 of the German Risk Study with meteorological data representing four different regions of the Federal Republic of Germany. The study of seasonal variations was carried out with the MARC data for four representative times of deposition with an agricultural practice adopted in the UK. In this report the differences are presented which are observed in the potential doses due to ingestion, the areas affected by food-bans and the late health effects when using both models and taking the influence of seasonal effects into account. (orig.) [de

  12. Technology for the oil spills clean-up which provides preliminary accumulation of sorbents into the area of emergence and localization oil spills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.L.Soroka

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The implementation of measures for the prevention and spill of dangerous goods is an important aspect of sustainable development of railway transport. oil spills accident are the most dangerous. They are accompanied by significant pollution of all environmental objects. Studying and development of oil localization and clean-up technologies of such accidents is an important problem of environmental protection to modern conditions of railway transport development. The purpose: to improve the effectiveness of traditional methods of oil spill elimination and the development of new clean-up technologies adapted to the real conditions of the railway transport of Ukraine. Methods: To achieve the research purposes was used analysis of material flows, typical for places emergence and localization of the oil spill on the railways. Results: Analysis of standard technological scheme for the oil spills eliminations has shown that the most difficult task of effective clean-up surfaces is the timely delivery of oil sorbents and special equipment to the area spill containment. The general effectiveness of the elimination activities specifies the time from the beginning contact of dangerous goods with environmental objects to the absorption it into the structure of sorbent . Us was developed the technological scheme of oil spill elimination. This scheme provide a permanent and fast access to the sorbents into the oil spill localization area. It was proposed to device that allows you to transport the sorbent into sorption booms directly on the tank for transportation of petroleum products. Conclusions: Preventative accumulation of sorbents to the oil spill elimination into the localization area provides the organizational and operational simplicity of all stages of clean-up technology. Technical and economic assessment shows that the proposed technology is effective, technologically feasible and economically competitive.

  13. A Complex Network Model for Analyzing Railway Accidents Based on the Maximal Information Coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao Fu-Bo; Li Ke-Ping

    2016-01-01

    It is an important issue to identify important influencing factors in railway accident analysis. In this paper, employing the good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships, the maximal information coefficient (MIC), which can capture a wide range of associations, a complex network model for railway accident analysis is designed in which nodes denote factors of railway accidents and edges are generated between two factors of which MIC values are larger than or equal to the dependent criterion. The variety of network structure is studied. As the increasing of the dependent criterion, the network becomes to an approximate scale-free network. Moreover, employing the proposed network, important influencing factors are identified. And we find that the annual track density-gross tonnage factor is an important factor which is a cut vertex when the dependent criterion is equal to 0.3. From the network, it is found that the railway development is unbalanced for different states which is consistent with the fact. (paper)

  14. Model of cyclist accident characteristics in the city of Malang and Blitar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arifin, M. Z.; Agustin, I. W.

    2018-01-01

    Utilization of bicycles as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation is reconcerned as the development of sustainable transportation programs. The use of bicycles in some developed countries such as the Netherlands is 27 per cent of total travel, while for developing countries such as Indonesia, cyclists are less than 1% of total travel with low educated characteristics (65 per cent) and low income (48 per cent). Cyclist reduces dependencies on petroleum and environmental pollution as well as lessen the occurrence of congestion and traffic accidents involving motor vehicles. It was necessary to know the behavior and interaction of bicycle riders with other vehicle users in a heterogeneous traffic flow. The main purpose of the research is to create a model of bicycle accidents to increase the road traffic safety in Malang city and Blitar city. The research used analyses of frequency, the road’s level of service, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that there was a need for a development basis of a special lane for bicycle. It aims to reduce the level and number of cyclist accidents and to achieve transportation safety as well as to raise public awareness in traffic safety.

  15. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  16. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion

  17. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  18. The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yau-Ren Shiau

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA, Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN, and Logistic Regression (LR. The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89% and FRPCA-LR (85.14% combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37% and LR (85.06% by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.

  19. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C; Johnson, J.D; Rollstin, J.A; Shiver, A.W; Sprung, J.L

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

  1. Radionuclides from the Fukushima accident in the air over Lithuania: measurement and modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lujanienė, G; Byčenkienė, S; Povinec, P P; Gera, M

    2012-12-01

    Analyses of (131)I, (137)Cs and (134)Cs in airborne aerosols were carried out in daily samples in Vilnius, Lithuania after the Fukushima accident during the period of March-April, 2011. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs ranged from 12 μBq/m(3) and 1.4 μBq/m(3) to 3700 μBq/m(3) and 1040 μBq/m(3), respectively. The activity concentration of (239,240)Pu in one aerosol sample collected from 23 March to 15 April, 2011 was found to be 44.5 nBq/m(3). The two maxima found in radionuclide concentrations were related to complicated long-range air mass transport from Japan across the Pacific, the North America and the Atlantic Ocean to Central Europe as indicated by modelling. HYSPLIT backward trajectories and meteorological data were applied for interpretation of activity variations of measured radionuclides observed at the site of investigation. (7)Be and (212)Pb activity concentrations and their ratios were used as tracers of vertical transport of air masses. Fukushima data were compared with the data obtained during the Chernobyl accident and in the post Chernobyl period. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs were found to be by 4 orders of magnitude lower as compared to the Chernobyl accident. The activity ratio of (134)Cs/(137)Cs was around 1 with small variations only. The activity ratio of (238)Pu/(239,240)Pu in the aerosol sample was 1.2, indicating a presence of the spent fuel of different origin than that of the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  3. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori [Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Fujita, Yushi [TECNOVA Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  4. Accidents - Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  5. Natural resource damage assessments for oil spills: Status of rules and application to recent oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robilliard, G.A.; Winfield, T.P.; Lebednik, P.A.; Markarian, R.K.

    1992-01-01

    The natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) process is based on the concept that all natural resources managed by government agencies or Indian tribes (trustees) are available to the public for its use and enjoyment. These resources have an economic value that can be affected by a spill of oil or other chemicals. The spiller or potentially responsible party (PRP) is responsible to the public, through the trustees, for paying damages and for restoration of the resource. The NRDA process should also determine the appropriate means of restoration, provide a cost for doing so and for conducting the NRDA, and should implement the appropriate restoration activities. The legal and regulatory authority behind NRDA in the USA is explained and reasons why PRPs should be concerned about NRDAs in the context of oil spills are presented. US Department of the Interior regulations describe two procedures for implementing a NRDA. A simplified procedure intended for small spills uses a computer model to generate a damage value. A more thorough and complicated procedure involves a number of phases and steps within the phases, and may include field sampling, data collection and analysis, and detailed evaluation of restoration alternatives. The NRDA experience in oil spills to date is reviewed and the future of NRDA is assessed. Examples cited include the 1988 Shell Oil spill from the Martinez Refinery, the Exxon Bayway pipeline leak of 1990, the Mega Borg spill in the Texas offshore, and the Exxon Valdez spill. It is speculated that trustees will focus on the NRDA process as a cooperative one that includes the trustees and PRPs, with the ultimate goal being restoration of the foregone services provided by natural resources. 5 refs., 1 fig

  6. Oil well spill trough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigington, J.R. Sr.

    1992-01-01

    This patent describes a process involving an oil well and rig having a casing, a platform on the rig extending around the casing. This patent describes improvement in pulling the tubing from the casing; disconnecting joints of tubing thereby; and spilling liquids from the casing, catching spilled liquids from the casing in a basin below the platform, draining the basin substantially simultaneously; connecting the drain hole to a tank, and reducing the pressure in the tank to less than atmospheric pressure. This paper also describes an oil well and rig having a casing; the rig having a platform extending around the casing. This patent describes improvement in a basin surrounding the casing and connected thereto, the basin below the platform, a drain connection in the lower part of the basin, a conduit connected to the drain, and means for applying a suction to the conduit

  7. A microcomputer-based model for identifying urban and suburban roadways with critical large truck accident rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brogan, J.D.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of techniques for merging highway accident record and roadway inventory files and employing the combined data set to identify spots or sections on highway facilities in urban and suburban areas with unusually high large truck accident rates. A statistical technique, the rate/quality control method, is used to calculate a critical rate for each location of interest. This critical rate may then be compared to the location's actual accident rate to identify locations for further study. Model enhancements and modifications are described to enable the technique to be employed in the evaluation of routing alternatives for the transport of radioactive material

  8. Structure Changes of Macrobenthic Community on Rocky Shores After the Hebei Spirit Oil Spill

    OpenAIRE

    Yun-Hwan Jung; Heung-Sik Park; Kon-Tak Yoon; Hyung-Gon Lee; Chae-Woo Ma

    2013-01-01

    In Korea, more than 300 oil spill accidents occur every year. Despite the frequency, only a small pool of data is available on the initial effect of oil spill on macrobenthic fauna inhabiting rocky shores. The aim of this study was to analyze the variation of macrobenthic fauna composition and community structure on rocky shores, and understand the impact of oil on rocky shore organisms after the Hebei Spirit oil spill. Field surveys were carried out in five regions dose to the wreck site in ...

  9. At spille en krimi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandvik, Kjetil

    2008-01-01

    væsentlige forskel at vi her ikke længere er læsere eller seere, men aktive medspillere i selve opklaringsarbejdet som ledere af eller deltagere i et efterforskningshold. Denne artikel ser nærmere på den interaktive krimi som performativ fortælling, dvs. en fortælling som bliver til i kraft af at den spilles...

  10. Modeling of in-vessel fission product release including fuel morphology effects for severe accident analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, K.Y.

    1989-10-01

    A new in-vessel fission product release model has been developed and implemented to perform best-estimate calculations of realistic source terms including fuel morphology effects. The proposed bulk mass transfer correlation determines the product of fission product release and equiaxed grain size as a function of the inverse fuel temperature. The model accounts for the fuel-cladding interaction over the temperature range between 770 K and 3000 K in the steam environment. A separate driver has been developed for the in-vessel thermal hydraulic and fission product behavior models that were developed by the Department of Energy for the Modular Accident Analysis Package (MAAP). Calculational results of these models have been compared to the results of the Power Burst Facility Severe Fuel Damage tests. The code predictions utilizing the mass transfer correlation agreed with the experimentally determined fractional release rates during the course of the heatup, power hold, and cooldown phases of the high temperature transients. Compared to such conventional literature correlations as the steam oxidation model and the NUREG-0956 correlation, the mass transfer correlation resulted in lower and less rapid releases in closer agreement with the on-line and grab sample data from the Severe Fuel Damage tests. The proposed mass transfer correlation can be applied for best-estimate calculations of fission products release from the UO 2 fuel in both nominal and severe accident conditions. 15 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  11. BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.; Woolstenhulme, Nicolas E.; Ban, Heng; Wachs, Daniel M.

    2016-09-01

    In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure of the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.

  12. Studies on marine oil spills and their ecological damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Hong; Yin, Yanjie

    2009-09-01

    The sources of marine oil spills are mainly from accidents of marine oil tankers or freighters, marine oil-drilling platforms, marine oil pipelines, marine oilfields, terrestrial pollution, oil-bearing atmosphere, and offshore oil production equipment. It is concluded upon analysis that there are two main reasons for marine oil spills: (I) The motive for huge economic benefits of oil industry owners and oil shipping agents far surpasses their sense of ecological risks. (II) Marine ecological safety has not become the main concern of national security. Oil spills are disasters because humans spare no efforts to get economic benefits from oil. The present paper draws another conclusion that marine ecological damage caused by oil spills can be roughly divided into two categories: damage to marine resource value (direct value) and damage to marine ecosystem service value (indirect value). Marine oil spills cause damage to marine biological, fishery, seawater, tourism and mineral resources to various extents, which contributes to the lower quality and value of marine resources.

  13. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code main features, current V2.0 modelling status, perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelard, P.; Reinke, N.; Arndt, S.; Belon, S.; Cantrel, L.; Carenini, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Cousin, F.; Eckel, J.; Jacq, F.; Marchetto, C.; Mun, C.; Piar, L.

    2014-01-01

    The severe accident integral code ASTEC, jointly developed since almost 20 years by IRSN and GRS, simulates the behaviour of a whole nuclear power plant under severe accident conditions, including severe accident management by engineering systems and procedures. Since 2004, the ASTEC code is progressively becoming the reference European severe accident integral code through in particular the intensification of research activities carried out in the frame of the SARNET European network of excellence. The first version of the new series ASTEC V2 was released in 2009 to about 30 organizations worldwide and in particular to SARNET partners. With respect to the previous V1 series, this new V2 series includes advanced core degradation models (issued from the ICARE2 IRSN mechanistic code) and necessary extensions to be applicable to Gen. III reactor designs, notably a description of the core catcher component to simulate severe accidents transients applied to the EPR reactor. Besides these two key-evolutions, most of the other physical modules have also been improved and ASTEC V2 is now coupled to the SUNSET statistical tool to make easier the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The ASTEC models are today at the state of the art (in particular fission product models with respect to source term evaluation), except for quenching of a severely damage core. Beyond the need to develop an adequate model for the reflooding of a degraded core, the main other mean-term objectives are to further progress on the on-going extension of the scope of application to BWR and CANDU reactors, to spent fuel pool accidents as well as to accidents in both the ITER Fusion facility and Gen. IV reactors (in priority on sodium-cooled fast reactors) while making ASTEC evolving towards a severe accident simulator constitutes the main long-term objective. This paper presents the status of the ASTEC V2 versions, focussing on the description of V2.0 models for water-cooled nuclear plants

  14. Dam spills and fishes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    This short paper reports the main topics discussed during the two days of the annual colloquium of the Hydro-ecology Committee of EdF. The first day was devoted to the presentation of the joint works carried out by EdF, the Paul-Sabatier University (Toulouse), the Provence St-Charles University (Marseille), the ENSAT (Toulouse) and the CEMAGREF (Lyon and Aix-en-Provence) about the environmental impact of dam spills on the aquatic flora and fauna downstream. A synthesis and recommendations were presented for the selection and characterization of future sites. The second day was devoted to the hydro-ecology study of the dam reservoir of Petit-Saut (French Guyana): water reoxygenation, quality evolution, organic matter, plankton, invertebrates and fishes. The 134 French dams concerned by water spills have been classified according to the frequency of spills, the variations of flow rates created, and their impacts on fishing, walking, irrigation, industry, drinking water, navigation, bathing. Particular studies on different sites have demonstrated the complexity of the phenomena involved concerning the impact on the ecosystems and the water quality. (J.S.)

  15. OSIS: A Windows 3 Oil Spill Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leech, M.; Walker, M.; Wiltshire, M.; Tyler, A.

    1993-01-01

    An oil spill modelling and analysis system called the Oil Spill Information System (OSIS) has recently been developed. OSIS uses a model of oceanographic processes to predict three-dimensional spreading and transport of an oil slick under the influence of wind, waves, tide, turbulence, and shear diffusion. Oil weathering and fate processes of emulsification, evaporation, and dispersion are also simulated. The physical models have been tested against data obtained from sea trials and spill incidents. OSIS uses an object-oriented programming technique and presents model output as maps, graphs, and tables in multiple windows and can link to other Windows packages to create a suite of spill information management tools. 15 refs., 12 figs

  16. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Radiological health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.

    1989-01-01

    Improved health effects models have been developed for assessing the early effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects that might result from low-LET radiation exposures to populations following a major accident in a nuclear power plant. All the models have been developed in such a way that the dynamics of population risks can be analyzed. Estimates of life years lost and the duration of illnesses were generated and a framework recommended for summarizing health impacts. Uncertainty is addressed by providing models for upper, central and lower estimates of most effects. The models are believed to be a significant improvement over the models used in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Reactor Safety Study, and they can easily be modified to reflect advances in scientific understanding of the health effects of ionizing radiation

  18. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Takahashi, Tomoyuki [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Yonehara, Hidenori [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)] [eds.

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  19. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  20. Oil spills and AI: How to manage resources through simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giribone, P.; Bruzzone, A.G.; Caddeo, S.

    1995-01-01

    Today, in the Mediterranean theater of the Upper Tyrrhenian, the ecological risk involving oil installations is still quite high. This is due to the fact that valuable environmental and tourist areas exist together with large industrial and port structures; in particular, recent events have demonstrated the danger involving oil spills along the Ligurian coastline. This study proposes an approach to plan the operations that should be performed when accidents occur, based on the use of AI techniques

  1. The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

  2. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  3. Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

    2007-01-01

    This is the third in a series of five papers describing the IDAC (Information, Decision, and Action in Crew context) model for human reliability analysis. An example application of this modeling technique is also discussed in this series. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the nuclear power plant control room operating crew in accident conditions. The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper discusses the modeling components and their process rules. An operator's problem-solving process is divided into three types: information pre-processing (I), diagnosis and decision-making (D), and action execution (A). Explicit and context-dependent behavior rules for each type of operator are developed in the form of tables, and logical or mathematical relations. These regulate the process and activities of each of the three types of response. The behavior rules are developed for three generic types of operator: Decision Maker, Action Taker, and Consultant. This paper also provides a simple approach to calculating normalized probabilities of alternative behaviors given a context

  4. A simplified model for calculating atmospheric radionuclide transport and early health effects from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1995-01-01

    During certain hypothetical severe accidents in a nuclear power plant, radionuclides could be released to the environment as a plume. Prediction of the atmospheric dispersion and transport of these radionuclides is important for assessment of the risk to the public from such accidents. A simplified PC-based model was developed that predicts time-integrated air concentration of each radionuclide at any location from release as a function of time integrated source strength using the Gaussian plume model. The solution procedure involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position, using simplified meteorology. The formulation allows for dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and daughter buildup, reactor building wake effects, the inversion lid effect, plume rise due to buoyancy or momentum, release duration, and grass height. Based on air and ground concentrations of the radionuclides, the early dose to an individual is calculated via cloudshine, groundshine, and inhalation. The model also calculates early health effects based on the doses. This paper presents aspects of the model that would be of interest to the prediction of environmental flows and their public consequences

  5. A model for the calculation of the off-site economic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego, E.; Alonso, A.

    1988-01-01

    The off-site economic cost of nuclear reactor accidents will depend on the countermeasures adopted to reduce its radiological impact. The assessment of the direct costs of emergency countermeasures (evacuation, early relocation and food disposal) as well as those of long-term protective actions (food disposal, decontamination or interdiction) is the objective of a model under development, with the sponsorship of the CEC Radiation Protection Programme, called MECA (Model for assessing the Economic Consequences of Accidents). The meteorological and socio-economical peculiarities of each site studied will be taken into account, by means of a flexible meteorological sampling scheme, which considers the geographical distribution of population and economic centers, and a data-base, compatible with the existing European grid, that contains the population distribution and the economic characteristics of the environs of the site to be studied with more detail near the reactor. The paper summarizes the particular models which will be included in MECA and shows the importance of site-specific adaptable modelling for economic risk evaluation

  6. Advanced surrogate model and sensitivity analysis methods for sodium fast reactor accident assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrel, A.; Marie, N.; De Lozzo, M.

    2015-01-01

    Within the framework of the generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors, the safety in case of severe accidents is assessed. From this statement, CEA has developed a new physical tool to model the accident initiated by the Total Instantaneous Blockage (TIB) of a sub-assembly. This TIB simulator depends on many uncertain input parameters. This paper aims at proposing a global methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques in order to perform a global sensitivity analysis of this TIB simulator. The objective is to identify the most influential uncertain inputs for the various TIB outputs involved in the safety analysis. The proposed statistical methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques enables to take into account the constraints on the TIB simulator outputs (positivity constraints) and to deal simultaneously with various outputs. To do this, a space-filling design is used and the corresponding TIB model simulations are performed. Based on this learning sample, an efficient constrained Gaussian process metamodel is fitted on each TIB model outputs. Then, using the metamodels, classical sensitivity analyses are made for each TIB output. Multivariate global sensitivity analyses based on aggregated indices are also performed, providing additional valuable information. Main conclusions on the influence of each uncertain input are derived. - Highlights: • Physical-statistical tool for Sodium Fast Reactors TIB accident. • 27 uncertain parameters (core state, lack of physical knowledge) are highlighted. • Constrained Gaussian process efficiently predicts TIB outputs (safety criteria). • Multivariate sensitivity analyses reveal that three inputs are mainly influential. • The type of corium propagation (thermal or hydrodynamic) is the most influential

  7. Postulated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullrich, W.

    1980-01-01

    This lecture on 'Postulated Accidents' is the first of a series of lectures on the dynamic and transient behaviour of nuclear power plants, especially pressurized water reactors. The main points covered will be: Reactivity Accidents, Transients (Intact Loop) and Loss of Cooland Accidents (LOCA) including small leak. This lecture will discuss the accident analysis in general, the definition of the various operational phases, the accident classification, and, as an example, an accident sequence analysis on the basis of 'Postulated Accidents'. (orig./RW)

  8. Analysis and model testing of a Super Tiger Type B waste transport system in accident environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, R.A.; Yoshimura, H.R.; Romesberg, L.E.; Joseph, B.J.

    1980-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is investigating the response of a Type B packaging containing drums of contact-handled transuranic waste (CH-TRU) as a part of a program to evaluate the adequacy of experimental and analytical methods for assessing the safety of waste transport systems in accident environments. A US NRC certified Type B package known as the Super Tiger was selected for the study. This overpack consists of inner and outer steel shells separated by rigid polyurethane foam and can be used for either highway or rail transportation. Tests using scale models of the vehicular system are being conducted in conjunction with computer analyses

  9. Modelling of radioactive fallout in the vicinity of Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Israel, Y.A.; Petrov, V.N.; Severov, D.A.

    1988-03-01

    Deposition of radioactive products escaping into the atmosphere for a long time from the Chernobylsk-4 reactor resulting in residual radioactive contamination of the region at a distance of up to 100 km from the nuclear power plant is considered. The suggested model may be used for estimation of the possible scope of nuclear danger in the regions of nuclear power plants and creation of conditions ensuring safety of the population at possible accidents. The following topics are developed: height of elevation and conditions of radionuclide transfer in the atmosphere; dynamics of release and dispersive composition of radioactive products; calculations of radiation levels at a close trace [fr

  10. A simplified model for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1988-07-01

    A personal computer-based model, SMART, has been developed that uses an integral approach for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents. The solution procedure uses simplified meteorology and involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position. This is different from the discretization approach currently used in the CRAC2 and MACCS codes. The SMART code is fast-running, thereby providing a valuable tool for sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The code was benchmarked against both MACCS version 1.4 and CRAC2. Results of benchmarking and detailed sensitivity/uncertainty analyses using SMART are presented. 34 refs., 21 figs., 24 tabs

  11. Application of transient ignition model to multi-canister (MCO) accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kummerer, M.

    1996-01-01

    The potential for ignition of spent nuclear fuel in a Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) is examined. A transient model is applied to calculate the highest ambient gas temperature outside an MCO wall tube or shipping cask for which a stable temperature condition exists. This integral analysis couples reaction kinetics with a description of the MCO configuration, heat and mass transfer, and fission product phenomena. It thereby allows ignition theory to be applied to various complex scenarios, including MCO water loss accidents and dry MCO air ingression

  12. Modelling of RPV lower head under core melt severe accident condition using OpenFOAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madokoro, Hiroshi; Kretzschmar, Frank; Miassoedov, Alexei

    2017-01-01

    Although six years have been passed since the tragic severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi, still large uncertainties exist in modeling of core degradation and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure. It is extremely important to obtain a better understanding of complex phenomena in the lower head in order to improve accident management measures. The possible failure mode of reactor pressure vessel and its failure time are especially a matter of importance. Thermal behavior of the molten pool can be simulated by the Phase-change Effective Convectivity Model (PECM), which is a distributed-parameter model developed in the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden. The model calculates convective currents not using a pure CFD approach but based on so called “characteristic velocities” that are determined by empirical correlations depending on the geometry and physical properties of the molten pool. At the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the PECM has been implemented in the open-source CFD software OpenFOAM in order to receive detailed predictions of a core melt behavior in the RPV lower head under severe accident conditions. An advantage of using OpenFOAM is that it is very flexible to add and modify models and physical properties. In the current work, the solver is extended to couple PECM with a structure analysis model of the vessel wall. The model considers thermal expansion, plasticity, creep and damage. The model and physical properties are based on those implemented in ANSYS. Although the previous implementation had restriction that the amount of and geometry of the melt cannot be changed, our coupled model allows flexibility of the melt amount and geometry. The extended solver was used to simulate the LIVE-L1 and -L7V experiments and has demonstrated good prediction of the temperature distribution in the molten pool and heat flux distribution through the vessel wall. Regarding the vessel failure the model was applied to one of the FOREVER tests

  13. The solution of the problem of oil spill risk control in the Baltic Sea taking into account the processes of oil propagation and degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aseev, Nikita; Agoshkov, Valery

    2015-04-01

    The report is devoted to the one approach to the problem of oil spill risk control of protected areas in the Baltic Sea (Aseev et al., 2014). By the problem of risk control is meant a problem of determination of optimal resources quantity which are necessary for decreasing the risk to some acceptable value. It is supposed that only moment of accident is a random variable. Mass of oil slick is chosen as a function of control. For the realization of the random variable the quadratic 'functional of cost' is introduced. It comprises cleaning costs and deviation of damage of oil pollution from its acceptable value. The problem of minimization of this functional is solved based on the methods of optimal control and the theory of adjoint equations (Agoshkov, 2003, Agoshkov et al., 2012). The solution of this problem is explicitly found. In order to solve the realistic problem of oil spill risk control in the Baltic Sea the 2d model of oil spill propagation on the sea surface based on the Seatrack Web model (Liungman, Mattson, 2011) is developed. The model takes into account such processes as oil transportation by sea currents and wind, turbulent diffusion, spreading, evaporation from sea surface, dispersion and formation of emulsion 'water-in-oil'. The model allows to calculate basic oil slick parameters: localization, mass, volume, thickness, density of oil, water content and viscosity of emulsion. The results of several numerical experiments in the Baltic Sea using the model and the methodology of oil spill risk control are presented. Along with moment of accident other parameters of oil spill and environment could be chosen as a random variables. The methodology of solution of oil spill risk control problem will remain the same but the computational complexity will increase. Conversion of the function of control to quantity of resources with a glance to methods of pollution removal should be processed. As a result, the developed 2d model of oil spill propagation

  14. Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talerko, Nikolai

    2005-01-01

    This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137 Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137 Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition

  15. Application of GRA method, dynamic analysis and fuzzy set theory in evaluation and selection of emergency treatment technology for large scale phenol spill incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jingjing; Yu, Lean; Li, Lian

    2017-05-01

    Select an appropriate technology in an emergency response is a very important issue with various kinds of chemical contingency spills frequently taking place. Due to the complexity, fuzziness and uncertainties of the chemical contingency spills, the theory of GRA method, dynamic analysis combined with fuzzy set theory will be appropriately applied to selection and evaluation of emergency treatment technology. Finally, a emergency phenol spill accidence occurred in highway is provided to illustrate the applicability and feasibility of the proposed methods.

  16. Development of CHF models for inner and outer RPV gaps in a meltdown severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.; Tian, W.X.; Feng, K.; Yu, H.X.; Zhang, Y.P.; Su, G.H.; Qiu, S.Z.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. • The computed result was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. • An analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. • The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. • Two CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF predict the CHF well. - Abstract: During a severe accident, the core melt relocates in the lower head and a hemispherical narrow gap may appear between the crust and the lower head because of the different material expansion ratio. The existence of this gap is very important to the integrity of the lower head. Based on the counter current flow limitation (CCFL) between the vapor phase and the liquid phase, a CHF model was developed to predict the CHF in hemispherical narrow gap. The CHF model developed was validated by the test data of Park and Köhler. The effect of key parameters, including the system pressure, radius of melt, and gap size, on the CHF were investigated. And the TMI-2 accident was also calculated by using the CHF formula. Moreover, based on the interface separation model, an analytical CHF model was developed to predict the CHF on the outer surface of the lower head. The predicted CHF was compared with the experimental data of ULPU-V. It indicated that the CHF models developed for the inner and outer CHF could predict the CHF well

  17. Consequences of oil spills: a review and framework for informing planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie E. Chang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As oil transportation worldwide continues to increase, many communities are at risk of oil spill disasters and must anticipate and prepare for them. Factors that influence oil spill consequences are myriad and range from the biophysical to the social. We provide a summary literature review and overview framework to help communities systematically consider the factors and linkages that would influence consequences of a potential oil spill. The focus is on spills from oil tanker accidents. Drawing primarily on empirical studies of previous oil spill disasters, we focused on several main domains of interest: the oil spill itself, disaster management, the physical marine environment, marine biology, human health, economy, and policy. Key variables that influence the severity of consequences are identified, and significant interactions between variables are delineated. The framework can be used to clarify the complexity of oil spill impacts, identify lessons that may be transferable from other oil spill disasters, develop scenarios for planning, and inform risk analysis and policy debates in localities that are seeking to understand and reduce their vulnerability to potential spill disasters. As a case study, the framework is used to consider potential oil spills and consequences in Vancouver, Canada. Major increases in oil tanker traffic are anticipated in this region, creating urgent new demands for risk information, disaster management planning, and policy responses. The case study identifies particular conditions that distinguish the Vancouver context from other historic events; in particular, proximity to a densely populated urban area, the type of oil being transported, financial compensation schemes, and local economic structure. Drawing lessons from other oil spill disasters is important but should be undertaken with recognition of these key differences. Some types of impacts that have been relatively inconsequential in previous events may be

  18. Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-31

    This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

  19. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo; Wanginingastuti Mutmainnah; Masao Furusho

    2017-01-01

    Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequen...

  20. Validation of CFD modeling for VGM loss-of-forced-cooling accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wysocki, Aaron; Ahmed, Bobby; Charmeau, Anne; Anghaie, Samim

    2009-01-01

    Heat transfer and fluid flow in the VGM reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) was modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The VGM is a Russian modular-type high temperature helium-cooled reactor. In the reactor cavity, heat is removed from the pressure vessel wall through natural convection and radiative heat transfer to water-cooled vertical pipes lining the outer cavity concrete. The RCCS heat removal capability under normal operation and accident scenarios needs to be assessed. The purpose of the present study is to validate the use of CFD to model heat transfer in the VGM RCCS. Calculations were based on a benchmark problem which defines a two-dimensional temperature distribution on the pressure vessel outer wall for both Depressurized and Pressurized Loss-of-Forced Cooling events. A two-dimensional axisymmetric model was developed to determine the best numerical modeling approach. A grid sensitivity study for the air region showed that a 20 mm mesh size with a boundary layer giving a maximum y+ of 2.0 was optimal. Sensitivity analyses determined that the discrete ordinates radiative model, the k-omega turbulence model, and the ideal gas law gave the best combination for capturing radiation and natural circulation in the air cavity. A maximum RCCS pipe wall temperature of 62degC located 6 m from the top of the cavity was predicted. The model showed good agreement with previous results for both Pressurized and Depressurized Loss-of-Forced-Cooling accidents based on RCCS coolant outlet temperature, relative contributions of radiative and convective heat transfer, and RCCS heat load profiles. (author)

  1. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code: Fission product modelling and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantrel, L.; Cousin, F.; Bosland, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Marchetto, C.

    2014-01-01

    One main goal of the severe accident integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed since almost more than 15 years by IRSN and GRS, is to simulate the overall behaviour of fission products (FP) in a damaged nuclear facility. ASTEC applications are source term determinations, level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA2) studies including the determination of uncertainties, accident management studies and physical analyses of FP experiments to improve the understanding of the phenomenology. ASTEC is a modular code and models of a part of the phenomenology are implemented in each module: the release of FPs and structural materials from degraded fuel in the ELSA module; the transport through the reactor coolant system approximated as a sequence of control volumes in the SOPHAEROS module; and the radiochemistry inside the containment nuclear building in the IODE module. Three other modules, CPA, ISODOP and DOSE, allow respectively computing the deposition rate of aerosols inside the containment, the activities of the isotopes as a function of time, and the gaseous dose rate which is needed to model radiochemistry in the gaseous phase. In ELSA, release models are semi-mechanistic and have been validated for a wide range of experimental data, and noticeably for VERCORS experiments. For SOPHAEROS, the models can be divided into two parts: vapour phase phenomena and aerosol phase phenomena. For IODE, iodine and ruthenium chemistry are modelled based on a semi-mechanistic approach, these FPs can form some volatile species and are particularly important in terms of potential radiological consequences. The models in these 3 modules are based on a wide experimental database, resulting for a large part from international programmes, and they are considered at the state of the art of the R and D knowledge. This paper illustrates some FPs modelling capabilities of ASTEC and computed values are compared to some experimental results, which are parts of the validation matrix

  2. Analysis of the Contribution of Wind Drift Factor to Oil Slick Movement under Strong Tidal Condition: Hebei Spirit Oil Spill Case

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Tae-Ho; Yang, Chan-Su; Oh, Jeong-Hwan; Ouchi, Kazuo

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the wind drift factor under strong tidal conditions in the western coastal area of Korea on the movement of oil slicks caused by the Hebei Spirit oil spill accident in 2007. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a simple simulation model based on the empirical formula as a function of surface current, wind speed, and the wind drift factor. For the simulation, the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model and Automatic Wea...

  3. Mathematical modeling of ignition of woodlands resulted from accident on the pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perminov, V. A.; Loboda, E. L.; Reyno, V. V.

    2014-11-01

    Accidents occurring at the sites of pipelines, accompanied by environmental damage, economic loss, and sometimes loss of life. In this paper we calculated the sizes of the possible ignition zones in emergency situations on pipelines located close to the forest, accompanied by the appearance of fireballs. In this paper, using the method of mathematical modeling calculates the maximum size of the ignition zones of vegetation as a result of accidental releases of flammable substances. The paper suggested in the context of the general mathematical model of forest fires give a new mathematical setting and method of numerical solution of a problem of a forest fire modeling. The boundary-value problem is solved numerically using the method of splitting according to physical processes. The dependences of the size of the forest fuel for different amounts of leaked flammable substances and moisture content of vegetation.

  4. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Erbang; Gao Zhanrong; Zhang Heyuan; Wei Weiqiang

    1996-12-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, for predicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident has been developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chain but also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused by accident release which will make an impact on radionuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dry and wet deposition interception and initial retention, translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activity intake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intake of human through ingestion pathway are also considered in calculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable are considered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating the contribution of rain with different period and different intensity to total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 main code and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surface of vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable, nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and in animal products and activity intake of human and so on. (24 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs.)

  5. Bioremediation of oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webb, M.

    1992-01-01

    For some years now UK and European oil spill response agencies, together with oil companies having an exploration or production interest in the European area, have been developing interest in the possible use of bioremediation techniques in combatting oil spills. The interest has accelerated in the aftermath of Exxon Valdez but there is significant scepticism over the actual value of the technique. The promise of increased rates of oil degradation, using bacteria or nutrients, does not yet appear to have been properly validated and there is concern over possible knock-on environmental effects. In consequence the response agencies are reluctant to bring the technique into their current combat armory. Some of the questions raised are: What efficacious techniques are available and how were they proven? On what type of oils can they be used? What is the scope for their use (at sea, type of coastline, temperature limitations, etc.)? What are the short and long term effects? Does bioremediation really work and offer a potential tool for oil spill clean-up? How do cleaning rates compare with natural recovery? There are many others. The view of the European Commission is that there should be a coordinated effort to answer these questions, but that effort should be properly targeted. I concur strongly with this view. The tasks are too large and varied for piecemeal attention. The European Commission wishes to initiate appropriate coordinated work, directed at the needs of European nations but which will subsequently inform the international response community through the International Maritime Organization and its Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response Cooperation initiative

  6. Bioremediation of oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynn, J.

    2001-01-01

    The conversion of oil to environmentally benign chemicals such as water and carbon dioxide by 'hydrocarbon-eating' bacteria is described. The emphasis is on a new process to selectively increase the population of 'oil eating' bacteria, a development that became the foundation for the second-generation bioremediation accelerator, Inipol EAP-22. Second-generation bioremediation products focus on providing nitrogen and phosphorus, chemicals that are not present in crude oil in readily available form, but are essential for the synthesis of proteins, nucleic acids, phospholipids and the energy metabolism of the bacteria. Providing these chemicals in the proper amounts encourages the preferential growth of oil-degrading microbes already present in the local biomass, thus overcoming the major limiting factor for biodegradation. These second-generation bioremediation products also have strong oleophilic properties engineered into them, to assure that the nutrients essential for the bacteria are in contact with the oil. The first major test for second-generation bioremediation accelerators came with the clean-up of the oil spill from the Exxon Valdez, a disaster that contaminated more than 120 kilometres of Alaskan beaches along the shores of Prince William Sound. The Inipol EAP-22 successfully held the nutrients in contact with the oil for the duration of the treatment period, despite constant exposure to the washing action of the surf and occasional heavy rainstorms. Today, the accelerator is routinely used in cleaning up all types of ordinary spills including diesel fuel spills along railway right-of-ways, truck yards and refinery sludge. Conditions under which the application of the accelerator is likely to be most successful are described

  7. Marine oil spill response organizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, C.

    1997-01-01

    The obligations under the law relative to the prevention of marine oil spills and the type of emergency plans needed to mitigate any adverse effects caused by a marine oil spill were discussed. The organizational structure, spill response resources and operational management capabilities of Canada's newly created Response Organizations (ROs) were described. The overall range of oil spill response services that the RO provides to the domestic oil handling, oil transportation and the international shipping industries were reviewed. Amendments to the Canada Shipping Act which require that certain ships and oil handling facilities take oil spill preparedness and response measures, including having an arrangement with an RO certified by the Canadian Coast Guard, were outlined. Canadians now benefit from five ROs established to provide coast-to-coast oil spill response coverage. These include the Western Canada Marine Response Corporation, the Canadian Marine Response Management Corporation, the Great Lakes Response Corporation, the Eastern Canada Response Corporation and the Atlantic Emergency Response Team Ltd. ROs have the expertise necessary to organize and manage marine oil spill response services. They can provide equipment, personnel and operational management for the containment, recovery and cleanup of oil spilled on water

  8. Experimental and modelling studies of iodine oxide formation and aerosol behaviour relevant to nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, S.; Auvinen, A.; Ammar, Y.; Bosland, L.; Clément, B.; Funke, F.; Glowa, G.; Kärkelä, T.; Powers, D.A.; Tietze, S.; Weber, G.; Zhang, S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Radiolytic reactions can influence iodine volatility following a nuclear accident. • Kinetic models have been developed based on atmospheric chemistry studies. • Properties of iodine oxide aerosols produced by radiation have been measured. • Decomposition of iodine oxides by the action of heat or radiation has been observed. - Abstract: Plant assessments have shown that iodine contributes significantly to the source term for a range of accident scenarios. Iodine has a complex chemistry that determines its chemical form and, consequently, its volatility in the containment. If volatile iodine species are formed by reactions in the containment, they will be subject to radiolytic reactions in the atmosphere, resulting in the conversion of the gaseous species into involatile iodine oxides, which may deposit on surfaces or re-dissolve in water pools. The concentration of airborne iodine in the containment will, therefore, be determined by the balance between the reactions contributing to the formation and destruction of volatile species, as well as by the physico-chemical properties of the iodine oxide aerosols which will influence their longevity in the atmosphere. This paper summarises the work that has been done in the framework of the EC SARNET (Severe Accident Research Network) to develop a greater understanding of the reactions of gaseous iodine species in irradiated air/steam atmospheres, and the nature and behaviour of the reaction products. This work has mainly been focussed on investigating the nature and behaviour of iodine oxide aerosols, but earlier work by members of the SARNET group on gaseous reaction rates is also discussed to place the more recent work into context

  9. Management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents. Forvaltning av naeringsmidler etter kjernefysiske ulykker; En nordisk modell for nasjonal respons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-04-01

    A model for the management of foodstuffs after nuclear accidents is presented. The model is a synthesis of traditions and principles taken from both radioactive protection and management of food. It is based on cooperation between the Nordic countries and on practical experience gained from the Chernobyl accident. The aim of the model is to produce a basis for common plans for critical situations based on criteria for decision making. In the case of radioactive accidents it is important that the protection of the public and of the society is handled in a positive way. The model concerns production, marketing and consumption of food and beverage. The overall aim is that the radiation doses should be as low and harmless to health for individual members of the public. (CLS) 35 refs.

  10. Oil spill clean up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claxton, L.D.; Houk, V.S.; Williams, R.; Kremer, F.

    1991-01-01

    Due to the consideration of bioremediation for oil spills, it is important to understand the ecological and human health implications of bioremediation efforts. During biodegradation, the toxicity of the polluting material may actually increase upon the conversion of non-toxic constituents to toxic species. Also, toxic compounds refractory to biological degradation may compromise the effectiveness of the treatment technique. In the study, the Salmonella mutagenicity assay showed that both the Prudhoe Bay crude oil and its weathered counterpart collected from oil-impacted water were weakly mutagenic. Results also showed that the mutagenic components were depleted at a faster rate than the overall content of organic material

  11. Numerical Modeling of 90Sr and 137Cs Transport from a Spill in the B-Cell of the 324 Building, Hanford Site 300 Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockhold, Mark L.; Bacon, Diana H.; Freedman, Vicky L.; Lindberg, Michael J.; Clayton, Ray E.

    2012-03-19

    To characterize the extent of contamination under the 324 Building, a pit was excavated on the north side of the building in 2010 by Washington Closure Hanford LLC (WCH). Horizontal closed-end steel access pipes were installed under the foundation of the building from this pit and were used for measuring temperatures and exposure rates under the B-Cell. The deployed sensors measured elevated temperatures of up to 61 C (142 F) and exposure rates of up to 8,900 R/hr. WCH suspended deactivation of the facility because it recognized that building safety systems and additional characterization data might be needed for remediation of the contaminated material. The characterization work included additional field sampling, laboratory measurements, and numerical flow and transport modeling. Laboratory measurements of sediment physical, hydraulic, and geochemical properties were performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and others. Geochemical modeling and subsurface flow and transport modeling also were performed by PNNL to evaluate the possible extent of contamination in the unsaturated sand and gravel sediments underlying the building. Historical records suggest that the concentrated 137Cs- and 90Sr-bearing liquid wastes that were spilled in B-Cell were likely from a glass-waste repository testing program associated with the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). Incomplete estimates of the aqueous chemical composition (no anion data provided) of the FRG waste solutions were entered into a geochemical speciation model and were charge balanced with nitrate to estimate waste composition. Additional geochemical modeling was performed to evaluate reactions of the waste stream with the concrete foundation of the building prior to the stream entering the subsurface.

  12. Development of decision support system for oil spill management in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Marra, Palmalisa; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Creti, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Palermo, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Possible oil spill accidents and operational pollution could have severe impacts on the Mediterranean basin. It is therefore crucial to provide decision makers, stakeholders, and public with trustworthy DSS (Decision Support System) based on the environmental monitoring, state-of-the-art modeling and innovative technology platforms. Innovative web-based decision support system, called WITOL (Where Is The Oil http://www.witoil.com), has been developed to maintain emergency management in case of oil spill accidents. WITOIL embraces (1) Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II (De Dominicis et al., 2013 http://medslikii.bo.ingv.it) coupled with the basin-scale and regional operational oceanographic services; (2) two-modular block of oil spill forecast and uncertainty evaluation; (3) user visualization tool including web and mobile interface with visualization of geospatial information by means of Google Maps. Service-oriented approach plays a key role in the WITOIL DSS development. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and in dynamic service delivery. Client part of WITOIL is presented by a 8-language GUI (Graphical User Interface) supplied with a great variety of user services including a video tutorial (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj_GokYy8MU). GUI allows users to configure and activate the system, visualize the results using Google Maps, and save them afterwards. Not only does a new generation of DSS require the oil spill forecast, but it also needs the evaluation of uncertainty, which is critical for efficient response, recovery, and mitigation. Uncertainty in prediction of the oil transport and transformation stems from the uncertain environment and data-sparse. A new methodology of uncertainty calculation with respect to initial conditions is incorporated in WITOIL DSS. The results are presented in probability terms. Special application to Android has been implemented to support users involved in the field operations. The system is

  13. Modelization of the initiator success of the accident of Fukushima Daiichi in the NPP of ZION by the code MAAP-5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Fernandez, M.; Jimenez, G.; Batteira, P.

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of the project is the modeling of the accident with a code new in the industry, MAAP5, and in a different nuclear plant, as well as various parameters sensitivity analysis to assess their influence on the evolution of the accident. The paper presents the analysis of the evolution of the simulated accident, as well as the evaluation of different sensitivity analyses performed on different parameters influence on the evolution: pre-accident conditions, actions of operator, etc. Operator actions, not referred to in the emergency procedures, which could influence the behavior of the reactor vessel during severe accident progression were analyzed.

  14. Modelling of plate-out under gas-cooled reactor (GCR) accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taig, A.R.

    1981-01-01

    The importance of plate-out in mitigating consequences of gas-cooled reactor accidents, and its place in assessing these consequences, are discussed. The data requirements of a plate-out modelling program are discussed, and a brief description is given of parallel work programs on thermal/hydraulic reactor behaviour and fuel modelling, both of which will provide inputs to the plate-out program under development. The representation of a GCR system used in SRD studies is presented, and the equations governing iodine adsorption, desorption and transport round the circuit are derived. The status of SRD's plate-out program is described, and the type of sensitivity studies to be undertaken with the partially-developed computer program in order to identify the most useful lines for future research is discussed. (author)

  15. A source term estimation method for a nuclear accident using atmospheric dispersion models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Minsik; Ohba, Ryohji; Oura, Masamichi

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop an operational source term estimation (STE) method applicable for a nuclear accident like the incident that occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in 2011. The new STE method presented here is based on data from atmospheric dispersion...... models and short-range observational data around the nuclear power plants.The accuracy of this method is validated with data from a wind tunnel study that involved a tracer gas release from a scaled model experiment at Tokai Daini nuclear power station in Japan. We then use the methodology developed...... and validated through the effort described in this manuscript to estimate the release rate of radioactive material from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station....

  16. System Response Analysis of Rod Ejection Accident for APR1400 Using KNAP Hot Spot Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yo-Han; Ha, Sang-Jun; Jun, Hwang-Yong

    2006-01-01

    Korea Electric Power Research Institute (KEPRI) has been developed the non-loss-of-coolant accident (non- LOCA) analysis methodology, called as the Korea Non- LOCA Analysis Package (KNAP), for the typical Optimized Power Reactor 1000 (OPR1000) plants. Considering current licensing methodology conducted by ABB-CE, however, the KNAP could be applied to Advanced Power Reactor 1400 (APR1400) also. In spite of some difference in design concepts of two plant types, there is a close resemblance between their nuclear steam supply systems (NSSS). So, in this study, the rod ejection accident (REA) event was analyzed using KNAP hot spot model (HSM) for APR1400 to estimate the feasibility of the application and the results were compared with those given in APR1400 Standard Safety Analysis Report (SSAR), which were calculated using the CESEC-III and STRIKIN-II code of ABB-CE. Through the study, it was concluded that the KNAP could be applicable to APR1400 on the view point of REA

  17. Modeling of severe accident sequences with the new modules CESAR and DIVA of ASTEC system code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pignet, Sophie; Guillard, Gaetan; Barre, Francois; Repetto, Georges

    2003-01-01

    Systems of computer codes, so-called 'integral' codes, are being developed to simulate the scenario of a hypothetical severe accident in a light water reactor, from the initial event until the possible radiological release of fission products out of the containment. They couple the predominant physical phenomena that occur in the different reactor zones and simulate the actuation of safety systems by procedures and by operators. In order to allow to study a great number of scenarios, a compromise must be found between precision of results and calculation time: one day of accident time should take less than one day of real time to simulate on a PC computer. This search of compromise is a real challenge for such integral codes. The development of the ASTEC integral code was initiated jointly by IRSN and GRS as an international reference code. The latest version 1.0 of ASTEC, including the new modules CESAR and DIVA which model the behaviour of the reactor cooling system and the core degradation, is presented here. Validation of the modules and one plant application are described

  18. Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

  19. HYSPLIT's Capability for Radiological Aerial Monitoring in Nuclear Emergencies: Model Validation and Assessment on the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Gunhyo; Kim, Juyoul; Shin, Hyeongki

    2007-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident took place on 25 April 1986 in Ukraine. Consequently large amount of radionuclides were released into the atmosphere. The release was a widespread distribution of radioactivity throughout the northern hemisphere, mainly across Europe. A total of 31 persons died as a consequence of the accident, and about 140 persons suffered various degrees of radiation sickness and health impairment in the acute health impact. The possible increase of cancer incidence has been a real and significant increase of carcinomas of the thyroid among the children living in the contaminated regions as the late health effects. Recently, a variety of atmospheric dispersion models have been developed and used around the world. Among them, HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)/ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) is being widely used. To verify the HYSPLIT model for radiological aerial monitoring in nuclear emergencies, a case study on the Chernobyl accident is performed

  20. Oil spill first principles. Prevention and best response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ornitz, B.; Champ, M.

    2002-01-01

    Different international conventions, U.S. laws, and policy considerations are reviewed, regulatory strategies are discussed, and the book helps promote the use of better science, engineering, technology and policy and law in oil spill prevention and response. 'Oil Spill Response' has greatly improved over the last 30 years. On a global basis, billions have been spent in R and D in planning and response. However, a paradigm shift is in the works that is needed to more effectively use what has been learned in the last 30 years in both prevention and in clean up. The key terms that describe this paradigm shift are Best Science, Engineering and Technology produce Best Response and the Safety Culture prevents oil spills. Oil spills are no longer considered unavoidable 'accidents' of environmental conditions or functions of catastrophic events. More than 80% of all spills are the result of human error. The focus of the current legal, regulatory and convention framework affecting the transportation of oil by ship reflects a recent change in public attitude, an insistence upon protection of the world's marine environments, particularly coastal ecosystems. This public concern seeks to address the root cause of oil spills, including human error. The outcome of such national and international attention is the creation of significant legal and political motivators for a cultural shift by the oil shipping industry, from an 'evasion' culture to a 'safety culture'. The new 'safety culture' connotes continuous improvement in ship operations and a willingness to adopt the evolving safety culture concepts of communication at all levels within the company, better trained and qualified personnel on board ship, emphasis on safety from top down, and proactive institution of safety management systems at all levels of operation. Evasion or mere compliance with international and national law is no longer sufficient for future sustainable shipping

  1. Oil spill first principles. Prevention and best response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ornitz, B.; Champ, M. (eds.)

    2002-07-01

    Different international conventions, U.S. laws, and policy considerations are reviewed, regulatory strategies are discussed, and the book helps promote the use of better science, engineering, technology and policy and law in oil spill prevention and response. 'Oil Spill Response' has greatly improved over the last 30 years. On a global basis, billions have been spent in R and D in planning and response. However, a paradigm shift is in the works that is needed to more effectively use what has been learned in the last 30 years in both prevention and in clean up. The key terms that describe this paradigm shift are Best Science, Engineering and Technology produce Best Response and the Safety Culture prevents oil spills. Oil spills are no longer considered unavoidable 'accidents' of environmental conditions or functions of catastrophic events. More than 80% of all spills are the result of human error. The focus of the current legal, regulatory and convention framework affecting the transportation of oil by ship reflects a recent change in public attitude, an insistence upon protection of the world's marine environments, particularly coastal ecosystems. This public concern seeks to address the root cause of oil spills, including human error. The outcome of such national and international attention is the creation of significant legal and political motivators for a cultural shift by the oil shipping industry, from an 'evasion' culture to a 'safety culture'. The new 'safety culture' connotes continuous improvement in ship operations and a willingness to adopt the evolving safety culture concepts of communication at all levels within the company, better trained and qualified personnel on board ship, emphasis on safety from top down, and proactive institution of safety management systems at all levels of operation. Evasion or mere compliance with international and national law is no longer sufficient for future

  2. Food safety after nuclear accidents. A Nordic model for national response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Nordic model for the management of food supplies and food safety after nuclear accidents addresses production distribution, sale, and consumption of food and drink. The model contains specific recommendations on intervention levels for distribution and consumption. The overriding aim is to keep the radiation dose to the population as low as reasonably achievable by the optimization of countermeasures. Upper levels of radiation doses which should not be exceeded are termed Primary Intervention Levels. A reasonable maximum dose level resulting from intake of food over a one-year period would be 1 mSv, and this level has been chosen as the starting point for the Nordic model. Maximum levels of radioactive substances in foodstuffs, are termed Derived Intervention Levels (DILs). DILs are established on the basis of the Primary Intervention Levels. A conservative approach is taken which involves additional precautionary assumptions and an extra margin of safety. Provided the DILs are adhered to, the actual radiation dose to which the population is exposed will constitute only a small fraction of the Primary Intervention Levels. The need may arise for specific dietary advise for certain types of food consumed by special population groups. The intervention levels must be adjusted if they cause adverse effects which are unacceptable to the population in general, for instance unfavourable socio-economic impacts. In extreme nuclear accident situations, it may become necessary to suspend the use of intervention levels for a period of time. The full report with scientific annexes was adopted by AeK-LIVS in April 1991, and published as report no. 1991:546 in the Nordic seminar series. In November 1991 the Nordic Council of Ministers requested that the model should be implemented by the national authorities in each of the Nordic countries. The publication contains an abbreviated version of the report. (EG)

  3. Tanker spills Norwegian crude oil off Shetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports that crude oil was spilling last week from the U.S. owned Braer tanker after the 89,000 dwt vessel ran aground on the south end of Scotland's Shetland Islands. Workers were trying to assess the extent of damage to the tanker, shoreline, and wildlife after the January 5 accident. Braer's cargo amounted to 607,000 bbl of Norwegian oil bound for Canada. Braer loaded its cargo and sailed January 3 from Den norske stats oljeselskap AS's Mongstad, Norway, terminal with crude from Gullfaks field in the Norwegian North Sea. The $11 million shipment was destined for Ultramar Canada Inc.'s 125,000 b/d refinery at St. Romuald, Que

  4. Recursive modeling of loss of control in human and organizational processes: a systemic model for accident analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontogiannis, Tom; Malakis, Stathis

    2012-09-01

    A recursive model of accident investigation is proposed by exploiting earlier work in systems thinking. Safety analysts can understand better the underlying causes of decision or action flaws by probing into the patterns of breakdown in the organization of safety. For this deeper analysis, a cybernetic model of organizational factors and a control model of human processes have been integrated in this article (i.e., the viable system model and the extended control model). The joint VSM-ECOM framework has been applied to a case study to help safety practitioners with the analysis of patterns of breakdown with regard to how operators and organizations manage goal conflicts, monitor work progress, recognize weak signals, align goals across teams, and adapt plans on the fly. The recursive accident representation brings together several organizational issues (e.g., the dilemma of autonomy versus compliance, or the interaction between structure and strategy) and addresses how operators adapt to challenges in their environment by adjusting their modes of functioning and recovery. Finally, it facilitates the transfer of knowledge from diverse incidents and near misses within similar domains of practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  6. Cloud diagnosis impact on deposition modelling applied to the Fukushima accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne

    2017-04-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in March 2011 resulted in the release of several hundred PBq of activity into the environment. Most of the radioactivity was released in a time period of about 40 days. Radioactivity was dispersed in the atmosphere and the ocean and subsequently traces of radionuclides were detected all over Japan. At the Fukushima airport for instance, a deposit as large as 36 kBq/m2 of Cs-137 was measured resulting of an atmospheric deposition of the plume. Both dry and wet deposition were probably involved since a raining event occurred on the 15th of March when the plume was passing nearby. The accident scenario have given rise to a number of scientific investigations. Atmospheric deposition, for example, was studied by utilizing atmospheric transport models. In atmospheric transport models, some parameters, such as cloud diagnosis, are derived from meteorological data. This cloud diagnosis is a key issue for wet deposition modelling since it allows to distinguish between two processes: in-cloud scavenging which corresponds to the collection of radioactive particles into the cloud and below-cloud scavenging consequent to the removal of radioactive material due to the falling drops. Several parametrizations of cloud diagnosis exist in the literature, using different input data: relative humidity, liquid water content, also. All these diagnosis return a large range of cloud base heights and cloud top heights. In this study, computed cloud diagnostics are compared to the observations at the Fukushima airport. Atmospheric dispersion simulations at Japan scale are then performed utilizing the most reliable ones. Impact on results are discussed.

  7. A local oil spill revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teal, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    In October 1969 George Hampson and Howard Sanders (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) described a 'Local Oil Spill' in Oceanus. The spill had occurred a month before when the barge Florida, loaded with no. 2 fuel oil, ran into some rocks in Buzzards Bay off West Falmouth, Massachusetts. In the summer of 1989, almost 20 years later, They visited the Wild Harbor marsh area that had suffered the greatest impact from the spill to see if any traces of the event in the marsh ecosystem could be found. During those 20 years, the site has been visited by graduate students in marine ecology, by reporters seeking information about current oil spills but also interested in seeing the effects of the Wild Harbor spill, and by visiting scientists curious about one of the world's best-studied oil spills. For more than a decade after the spill, an oil sheen appeared on the surface of the water when mud from the most heavily oiled parts of the marsh was disturbed. During the second decade, the marsh's appearance returned to normal

  8. Wabamun : a major inland spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, R.H.

    2006-01-01

    The 2 largest spills in Canada this century have been in freshwater environments. This paper evaluated remedial actions taken after a spill which occurred on the shore of Lake Wabamun, Alberta. A freight train derailed in the residential area, spilling 750 m 3 of oil into the lake. The initial response was inadequate as the spilled material was not immediately identified as oil. Some containment booms were deployed. By mid-morning, the oil slick had spread 12 km, and was driven by the wind onto the beaches of cottages. The limited amount of response equipment during the early stages of the spill caused anxiety among residents, which was further compounded by a lack of governmental involvement. The experience of Wabamun showed that the methods of operation and skill sets of environmental response organizations that routinely respond to small spills cannot readily be applied to larger spills. Plans by the railway for the Wabamun area were generic and did not focus on any particular response scenario. Limitations in the Transportation of Dangerous Good were noted, as the 2 substances which spilled were not identified as requiring labels. Various data gaps were identified concerning spills involving high density viscous oil; the dynamics of near neutral density oil; the flowing of hot product; interaction of fine sediments; and the cutting of reed beds. It was concluded that new detection technologies and response technologies are required concerning the detection of oil in water, the collection and removal of oil, and tar formation. The development of a new emergency response agency was recommended, as well as the establishment of a new research and technical information institute and incident command structure (ICS). 22 refs., 3 figs

  9. RASCAL [Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis]: A screening model for estimating doses from radiological accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoreen, A.L.; Athey, G.F.; Sakenas, C.A.; McKenna, T.J.

    1988-01-01

    The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis (RASCAL) is a new MS-DOS-based dose assessment model which has been written for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use during response to radiological emergencies. RASCAL is designed to provide crude estimates of the effects of an accident while the accident is in progress and only limited information is available. It has been designed to be very simple to use and to run quickly. RASCAL is unique in that it estimates the source term based on fundamental plant conditions and does not rely solely on release rate estimation (e.g., Ci/sec of I-131). Therefore, it can estimate consequences of accidents involving unmonitored pathways or projected failures. RASCAL will replace the older model, IRDAM. 6 refs

  10. The application of the health effects models to the severe accident consequence analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Ling; Yeung, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    Health Effect Model (HEM) is an important model used in the analysis of severe accidents consequence of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The accuracy of HEM affects the reliability of the assessment for the accidents consequences, and furthermore, the effectiveness of the emergency countermeasures taken for the health protection of the public around the NPPs. Based on the NUREG/CR4214 series reports, the paper sets appropriate parameters for HEM by studying both early and late HEMs used for domestic NPP accident consequence analysis. In the study, the Guangdong Daya Bay NPP is chosen as an example study to calculate the health risk of the Hong Kong population caused by Daya Bay NPP

  11. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other.'' The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs

  12. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  13. Development of systematic models for aerosol agglomeration and spray removal under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro

    2008-01-01

    Radionuclide behavior during various severe accident conditions has been addressed as one of the important issues to discuss environmental safety in nuclear power plants. The present paper deals with the development of analytical models and their validations for the agglomeration of multiple-component aerosol and spray removal that controls source terms to the environment of both aerosols and gaseous radionuclides during recirculation mode operation in a containment system for a light water reactor. As for aerosol agglomeration, the single collision kernel model that can cover all types of two-body collision of aerosol was developed. In addition, the dynamic model that can treat aerosol and vapor transfer leading to the equilibrium condition under the containment spray operation was developed. The validations of the present models for multiple-component aerosol growth by agglomeration were performed by comparisons with Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and AB experiments at Hanford Engineering National Laboratory (HEDL). In addition, the spray removal models were applied to the analysis of containment spray experiment (CSE) at HEDL. The results calculated by the models showed good agreements with experimental results. (author)

  14. Modeling operator actions during a small break loss-of-coolant accident in a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, L.S.; Ortiz, M.G.

    1991-01-01

    A small break loss-of-accident (SBLOCA) in a typical Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plant was modeled using RELAP5/MOD3. This work was performed as part of the United States Regulatory Commission's (USNRC) Code, Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) study. The break was initiated by severing one high pressure injection (HPI) line at the cold leg. Thus, the small break was further aggravated by reduced HPI flow. Comparisons between scoping runs with minimal operator action, and full operator action, clearly showed that the operator plays a key role in recovering the plant. Operator actions were modeled based on the emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and the Technical Bases Document for the EOPs. The sequence of operator actions modeled here is only one of several possibilities. Different sequences of operator actions are possible for a given accident because of the subjective decisions the operator must make when determining the status of the plant, hence, which branch of the EOP to follow. To assess the credibility of the modeled operator actions, these actions and results of the simulated accident scenario were presented to operator examiners who are familiar with B ampersand W nuclear power plants. They agreed that, in general, the modeled operator actions conform to the requirements set forth in the EOPs and are therefore plausible. This paper presents the method for modeling the operator actions and discusses the simulated accident scenario from the viewpoint of operator actions

  15. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic assessment of spent fuel accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    If there should be an accident involving drainage of all the water from a spent fuel pool, the fuel elements will heat up until the heat produced by radioactive decay is balanced by that removed by natural convection to air, thermal radiation, and other means. If the temperatures become high enough for the cladding or other materials to ignite due to rapid oxidation, then some of the fuel might melt, leading to an undesirable release of radioactive materials. The amount of melting is dependent upon the fuel loading configuration and its age, the oxidation and melting characteristics of the materials, and the potential effectiveness of recovery actions. The authors have developed methods for modeling the pertinent physical phenomena and integrating the results with a probabilistic treatment of the uncertainty distributions. The net result is a set of complementary cumulative distribution functions for the amount of fuel melted

  16. Structural stability of the market model after the Three Mile Island accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, C.R.

    1984-01-01

    This article examines the stability of alpha and beta in the market model resulting from the Three Mile Island accident. The data consist of weekly returns on 70 utility stocks. Both a dummy variable test and the Fisher F statistics are utilized to test for stability. In addition to the individual stocks, the 70 utilities are partioned into two portfolios for the test: nuclear and non-nuclear. The main conclusions are: for the non-nuclear portfolio, no change is observed; for the nuclear portfolio, alpha fell and beta rose (the impact, however, is transitory and insignificant); and the behavior of the residuals suggests that the result is consistent with an efficient market. 17 references, 3 tables

  17. European pipelines spill near record amounts in 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    European pipelines in 1993 spilled as much crude oil and petroleum products as in any year since 1971, when statistics first began to be reported. Final cost of cleanup will exceed $10 million, by far the most ever spent by western European oil pipelines operating on land. This cost figure is only preliminary: costs for three spills totaling nearly 2,600 cu m (approximately 16,380 bbl; 43.6% of total spilled) had not been reported through November 1994. Ten incidents of oil spills from pipelines occurred in 1993, compared with seven for 1992 and an average of 12.7/year since 1971. Total length of oil industry cross-country pipelines operating in Western Europe at the end of 1993 was 21,600 km, up from nearly 19,000 km in 1989. In all, 601 million cu m (3.8 billion bbl) of crude oil and refined products moved through the pipeline system. The paper briefly describes several of the accidents

  18. A Study of The Relationship Between The Components of The Five-Factor Model of Personality and The Occurrence of Occupational Accidents in Industry Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsanollah Habibi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Accidents are among the most important problems of both the developed and the developing countries. Individual factors and personality traits are the primary causes of human errors and contribute to accidents. The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the components of the five-factor model of personality and the occurrence of occupational accidents in industrial workers. The independent T-test indicated that there is a meaningful relationship between the personality traits and accident proneness. In the two groups of industry workers injured in occupational accidents and industry workers without any occupational accidents, there is a significant relationship between personality traits, neuroticism (p=0.001, openness to experience (p=0.001, extraversion (p=0.024 and conscientiousness (p=0.021. Nonetheless, concerning the personality trait of agreeableness (p = 0.09, the group of workers with accidents did not differ significantly from the workers without any accidents. The results showed that there is a direct and significant relationship between accident proneness and the personality traits of neuroticism and openness to experience. Furthermore, there is a meaningful but inverse correlation between accident proneness and the personality traits of extraversion and conscientiousness, while there was no relationship between accident proneness and the personality trait of agreeableness.

  19. Methodology of intervention during a mystery spill: The example of the Baie-des-Sables case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, V.

    1993-01-01

    A mystery spill, or an oil spill of unknown origin, is one whose source cannot be identified at the time the environmental impact of the spill is noted. Unlike a known incident during which preventive action may be taken, mystery spills are often assessed based on the damages they have caused. In Canada, the coast guard regularly reports many spills with unidentified sources, and the most frequently reported sign of a spill is the presence of an oily film on the water surface. The smell of oil is also an important indication of a recent spill. The spill at Baie-des-Sables, Quebec, is presented as an illustrative example of a mystery spill. The size of the spill was estimated at 25 tons of bunker oil. The first indication of the spill was a number of contaminated ducks from the Rimouski region, reported by hunters to the appropriate government agency. Two days later, an oil slick was reported in the channel between Baie-Comeau and Rimouski; this provided sufficient information to trigger an alert. The next day an aerial inspection of the slick was carried out and a dispersion model was made. Contamination of seagulls and the south shore of the St. Lawrence River were noted. Over the next week response measures were organized and more inspections of shorelines were undertaken. Of the shoreline studied, 50 km were contaminated and 14 km were restored. Lack of precise early observations of the slick precluded identification of the vessel responsible for the spill. Recommendations are made for improving assessment of mystery spills and ensuring faster response times. 1 fig

  20. Experimental plans for LMFBR cavity liner sodium spill test LT-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilliard, R.K.; Newell, G.A.

    1976-01-01

    Reinforced concrete is an important material of construction in LMFBR cavities and cells. Steel liners are often installed on the concrete surfaces to provide a gastight seal for minimizing air inleakage to inerted cell atmospheres and to protect the concrete from direct contact with sodium in the event of a sodium spill. In making safety assessment analyses, it is of interest to determine the adequacy of the liners to maintain their leaktightness during postulated accidents involving large sodium spills. However, data for basing analytical assessments of cell liners are very meager and an experimental program is underway at HEDL to provide some of the needed information. The HEDL cell liner evaluation program consists of both bench-scale feature tests and large-scale sodium spill demonstration tests. The plans for the first large-scale sodium spill test (LT-1) are the subject of this paper

  1. Accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J.; Monty, B.S.; Liparulo, N.J.; Desaedeleer, G.

    1989-01-01

    The foundation of the framework for a Severe Accident Management Program is the contained in the Probabilistic Safety Study (PSS) or the Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE) for a specific plant. The development of a Severe Accident Management Program at a plant is based on the use of the information, in conjunction with other applicable information. A Severe Accident Management Program must address both accident prevention and accident mitigation. The overall Severe Accident Management framework must address these two facets, as a living program in terms of gathering the evaluating information, the readiness to respond to an event. Significant international experience in the development of severe accident management programs exist which should provide some direction for the development of Severe Accident Management in the U.S. This paper reports that the two most important elements of a Severe Accident Management Program are the Emergency Consultation process and the standards for measuring the effectiveness of individual Severe Accident Management Programs at utilities

  2. Bioremediation of oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foght, J.M.; Westlake, D.W.S.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ bioremediation of crude oil spills relies on either the indigenous microbes at the polluted site, whose degradative abilities are accelerated by adding such agents as fertilizers or dispersants, or on introducing pollutant-degrading microbes into the site (possibly accompanied by stimulatory chemicals). The bioremediation method to be used at a specific site must be selected to be suitable for that site and its environmental conditions. The basic components of bioremediation are outlined and the background information needed to understand the chemical and biological limitations of the technique are presented. Specifically, the microbial community, the crude oil substrate composition, and biological limiting factors are discussed. Generalized examples of bioremediation applications are illustrated. 10 refs

  3. U.S. oil spill law to cause growing tanker problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, R.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on tanker owners which face a growing dilemma on the issue of oil spill liability. The U.S. Oil Pollution Act, passed last year in the wake of the March 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, was intended to reduce risk of and damage from such accidents. However, in addition to phasing in double hulls on most tankers operating in U.S. waters, the law substantially increases shipowner's liability for spills. And the federal law does not preempt state liability laws, which in most cases amount to unlimited liability for spill cleanup. Rather than face potentially unlimited liability in the event of a spill, tanker owners worldwide are exercising a number of options to shield themselves. Some of those options could increase the potential for oil spills, industry officials warn. The act also threatens to shatter the international alliance among shippers. A report by Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London, says the law could have a devastating effect on operating practices. Tanker owners and operators have voiced the most opposition to the new spill law and the shackles it places on them. Now the industry that insures tankers has spoken up about is increased liability, and it too may launch a boycott

  4. Petroleum biodegradation and oil spill bioremediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atlas, R.M.

    1995-01-01

    Hydrocarbon-utilizing microorganisms are ubiquitously distributed in the marine environment following oil spills. These microorganisms naturally biodegrade numerous contaminating petroleum hydrocarbons, thereby cleansing the oceans of oil pullutants. Bioremediation, which is accomplished by adding exogenous microbial populations or stimulating indigenous ones, attempts to raise the rates of degradation found naturally to significantly higher rates. Seeding with oil degraders has not been demonstrated to be effective, but addition of nitrogenous fertilizers has been shown to increase rates of petroleum biodegradation. In the case of the Exxon Valdez spill, the largest and most thoroughly studied application of bioremediation, the application of fertilizer (slow release or oleophilic) increased rates of biodegradation 3-5 times. Because of the patchiness of oil, an internally conserved compound, hopane, was critical for demonstrating the efficacy of bioremediation. Multiple regression models showed that the effectiveness of bioremediation depended upon the amount of nitrogen delivered, the concentration of oil, and time. (author)

  5. Unavoidable Accident

    OpenAIRE

    Grady, Mark F.

    2009-01-01

    In negligence law, "unavoidable accident" is the risk that remains when an actor has used due care. The counterpart of unavoidable accident is "negligent harm." Negligence law makes parties immune for unavoidable accident even when they have used less than due care. Courts have developed a number of methods by which they "sort" accidents to unavoidable accident or to negligent harm, holding parties liable only for the latter. These sorting techniques are interesting in their own right and als...

  6. Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.

    1988-06-01

    Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.) [de

  7. Computer simulation of the Shetland oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, A.; Proctor, R.

    1994-01-01

    Model predictions of the movement of oil released during the Shetland oil spill in January 1993 commenced immediately following the grounding of the Braer. The initial forecast, made with a 5 nautical mile grid model, predicted oil along the west coast of the island but were too coarse to resolve the coastal bathymetry and circulation. This forced the development of a fine grid (924m) hydrodynamic model of the region which was interfaced to surface wind forecasts and meshed to a shelf-wide storm surge model. (author)

  8. A model of the operator cognitive behaviors during the steam generator tube rupture accident at a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mun, J. H.; Kang, C. S.

    1996-01-01

    An integrated framework of modeling the human operator cognitive behavior during nuclear power plant accident scenarios is presented. It incorporates both plant and operator models. The basic structure of the operator model is similar to that of existing cognitive models, however, this model differs from those existing ones largely in two aspects. First, using frame and membership function, the pattern matching behavior, which is identified as the dominant cognitive process of operators responding to an accident sequence, is explicitly implemented in this model. Second, the non-task-related human cognitive activities like effects of stress and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias and availability bias, are also considered. A computer code, OPEC is assembled to simulate this framework and is actually applied to an SGTR sequence, and the resultant simulated behaviors of operator are obtained. 28 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs. (author)

  9. Sensitivity study of the wet deposition schemes in the modelling of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Thomas; Adachi, Kouji; Didier, Damien; Igarashi, Yasuhito

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima-Daiichi release of radioactivity is a relevant event to study the atmospheric dispersion modelling of radionuclides. Actually, the atmospheric deposition onto the ground may be studied through the map of measured Cs-137 established consecutively to the accident. The limits of detection were low enough to make the measurements possible as far as 250km from the nuclear power plant. This large scale deposition has been modelled with the Eulerian model ldX. However, several weeks of emissions in multiple weather conditions make it a real challenge. Besides, these measurements are accumulated deposition of Cs-137 over the whole period and do not inform of deposition mechanisms involved: in-cloud, below-cloud, dry deposition. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed in order to understand wet deposition mechanisms. It has been shown in a previous study (Quérel et al, 2016) that the choice of the wet deposition scheme has a strong impact on the assessment of the deposition patterns. Nevertheless, a "best" scheme could not be highlighted as it depends on the selected criteria: the ranking differs according to the statistical indicators considered (correlation, figure of merit in space and factor 2). A possibility to explain the difficulty to discriminate between several schemes was the uncertainties in the modelling, resulting from the meteorological data for instance. Since the move of the plume is not properly modelled, the deposition processes are applied with an inaccurate activity in the air. In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, new meteorological fields at higher resolution (Sekiyama et al., 2013) were provided and allows to reconsider the previous study. An updated study including these new meteorology data is presented. In addition, a focus on several releases causing deposition in located areas during known period was done. This helps to better understand the mechanisms of deposition involved following the

  10. GASFLOW: A computational model to analyze accidents in nuclear containment and facility buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, J.R.; Nichols, B.D.; Wilson, T.L.; Lam, K.L.; Spore, J.W.; Niederauer, G.F.

    1993-01-01

    GASFLOW is a finite-volume computer code that solves the time-dependent, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for multiple gas species. The fluid-dynamics algorithm is coupled to the chemical kinetics of combusting liquids or gases to simulate diffusion or propagating flames in complex geometries of nuclear containment or confinement and facilities' buildings. Fluid turbulence is calculated to enhance the transport and mixing of gases in rooms and volumes that may be connected by a ventilation system. The ventilation system may consist of extensive ductwork, filters, dampers or valves, and fans. Condensation and heat transfer to walls, floors, ceilings, and internal structures are calculated to model the appropriate energy sinks. Solid and liquid aerosol behavior is simulated to give the time and space inventory of radionuclides. The solution procedure of the governing equations is a modified Los Alamos ICE'd-ALE methodology. Complex facilities can be represented by separate computational domains (multiblocks) that communicate through overlapping boundary conditions. The ventilation system is superimposed throughout the multiblock mesh. Gas mixtures and aerosols are transported through the free three-dimensional volumes and the restricted one-dimensional ventilation components as the accident and fluid flow fields evolve. Combustion may occur if sufficient fuel and reactant or oxidizer are present and have an ignition source. Pressure and thermal loads on the building, structural components, and safety-related equipment can be determined for specific accident scenarios. GASFLOW calculations have been compared with large oil-pool fire tests in the 1986 HDR containment test T52.14, which is a 3000-kW fire experiment. The computed results are in good agreement with the observed data

  11. Study of heat and mass transfer phenomena in fuel assembly models under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yefanov, A.D.; Kalyakin, C.G.; Loshchinin, V.M.; Pomet'ko, R.S.; Sergeev, V.V.; Shumsky, R.V.

    1996-01-01

    The majority of the material in support of the thermal - hydraulic safety of WWER core was obtained on single - assembly models containing a relatively small number of elements - heater rods. Upgrading the requirements to the reactor safety leads to the necessity for studying phenomena in channels representing the cross - sectional core dimensions and non - uniform radial power generation. Under such conditions, the contribution of natural convection can be significant in some core zones, including the occurrence of reverse flows and interchannel instability. These phenomena can have an important influence on heat transfer processes. Such influence is especially drastical under accident conditions associated with ceasing the forced circulation over the circuit. A number of urgent reactor safety problems at low operating parameters is related with the computer code verification and certification. One of the important trends in the reactor safety research is concerned with the rod bundle reflooding and verificational calculations of this phenomenon. To assess the water cooled reactor safety, the best fit computer codes are employed, which make it possible to simulate accident and transient operating conditions in a reactor installation. One of the most widely known computer codes is the RELAP5/MOD3 Code. The paper presents the comparison of the results calculated using this computer code with the test data on 4 - rod bundle quenching, which were obtained at the SSCRF-IPPE. Recently, the investigations on the steam - zirconium reaction kinetics have been performed at the SSCFR-IPPE and are being presently performed for the purpose of developing new and verifying available computer codes. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs

  12. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  13. Alaska, Gulf spills share similarities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usher, D.

    1991-01-01

    The accidental Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska and the deliberate dumping of crude oil into the Persian Gulf as a tactic of war contain both glaring differences and surprising similarities. Public reaction and public response was much greater to the Exxon Valdez spill in pristine Prince William Sound than to the war-related tragedy in the Persian Gulf. More than 12,000 workers helped in the Alaskan cleanup; only 350 have been involved in Kuwait. But in both instances, environmental damages appear to be less than anticipated. Natures highly effective self-cleansing action is primarily responsible for minimizing the damages. One positive action growing out of the two incidents is increased international cooperation and participation in oil-spill clean-up efforts. In 1990, in the aftermath of the Exxon Valdez spill, 94 nations signed an international accord on cooperation in future spills. The spills can be historic environmental landmarks leading to creation of more sophisticated response systems worldwide

  14. Oil spills - effects and response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dicks, B.M.; White, I.C.

    1992-01-01

    The incidence of oil spills from offshore industry operates on the United Kingdom continental shelf is reported for the period 1979 to 1988. The properties of North Sea crude oils which determine their fate and effects when spilled onto the surface of the sea are summarized. Examples of oil impacts on specific North Sea habitats and communities are used to illustrate the effect of oil spills and the economic impact on human activities such as recreation, industry and fishing are considered. Since most oil spills will dissipate through natural processes if they remain at sea long enough, the most appropriate response to a spill from a platform in the middle of the sea is often aerial surveillance to monitor the movement and dissipation of the oil. However, if an active response is required, containment and collection of the oil or chemical dispersion are the two main options. In coastal waters, it will be necessary to focus protection efforts on selected sensitive areas of coastline. Once the oil is ashore there are still occasions when the best course of actions is to do nothing as clean-up operations may do more harm than good. If oil removal is feasible and necessary, the methods which are most effective are usually straightforward and require no sophisticated technology. Contingency planning is an essential preparation for all operations to deal with oil spills. (UK)

  15. What turns an oil spill into a disaster?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearce, F.

    1993-01-01

    Whenever an oil tanker spews its cargo into the sea, the spill is instantly labelled an ''ecological disaster'' and with the slightest statistical prompting, ''the worst ever disaster''. Within hours of the Braer hitting the rocks of Garth's Ness, on the coast of Shetland in the United Kingdom, the accident had already been labelled a tragedy. Two weeks later, after ferocious storms seemed to have spirited away the worst of the pollution, the verdict changed. Shetland had had a lucky escape. But with the majority of the 84 000 tonnes of oil still unaccounted for, it will be some time before the true extent of the damage is known. Only then will we know if the Braer has really caused a disaster. The factors which will determine whether the spill becomes a disaster are examined in this article. (Author)

  16. Development of a PWR-W GOTHIC 3D model for containment accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocanegra, Rafael; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Fernández-Cosials, Mikel Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The development of several 3D PWR containment models is described. • A Large Break LOCA is simulated. • The temperature and velocity fields are highly dependent on three-dimensional phenomena. • The pressure evolution is qualitatively similar in all models with small quantitative differences. - Abstract: The confinement of radioactive material in a nuclear power plant, including the discharge control and the release minimization, is a fundamental safety function to be ensured in a design basis accident (DBA). For plant licensing analysis, the containment is usually modeled with a lumped parameter approach. Inherent to the lumped parameter approach is the assumption that within each region the fluid is well mixed. However, the containment is a large building with a complex configuration and it is distributed in several compartments that avoid the well mixing of the fluid and could have three-dimensional effects that affect the thermal–hydraulic behavior. Therefore, the commonly used lumped parameter approach may not be enough to capture these effects. In order to study these assumptions, four generic PWR containment models have been developed for Mass and Energy (M&E) release analysis with GOTHIC 8.0 (QA) code, three of them being subdivided and the fourth one is a lumped parameter model. A Large Break LOCA is simulated in order to compare the thermal–hydraulic behavior of the different models. The results show a high dependence on the three-dimensional phenomena, especially the temperature and velocity distribution. In contrast, the pressure evolution is qualitatively similar in all models with small quantitative differences.

  17. Raim – A model for iodine behavior in containment under severe accident condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-Chul Kim

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Following a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, iodine is a major contributor to the potential health risks for the public. Because the amount of iodine released largely depends on its volatility, iodine's behavior in containment has been extensively studied in international programs such as International Source Term Programme-Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation (EPICUR, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD-Behaviour of Iodine Project, and OECD-Source Term Evaluation and Mitigation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS has joined these programs and is developing a simplified, stand-alone iodine chemistry model, RAIM (Radio-Active Iodine chemistry Model, based on the IMOD methodology and other previous studies. This model deals with chemical reactions associated with the formation and destruction of iodine species and surface reactions in the containment atmosphere and the sump in a simple manner. RAIM was applied to a simulation of four EPICUR tests and one Radioiodine Test Facility test, which were carried out in aqueous or gaseous phases. After analysis, the results show a trend of underestimation of organic and molecular iodine for the gas-phase experiments, the opposite of that for the aqueous-phase ones, whereas the total amount of volatile iodine species agrees well between the experiment and the analysis result.

  18. RAIM-A model for iodine behavior in containment under severe accident condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Han Chul; Cho, Yeong Hun [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Following a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, iodine is a major contributor to the potential health risks for the public. Because the amount of iodine released largely depends on its volatility, iodine's behavior in containment has been extensively studied in international programs such as International Source Term Programme-Experimental Program on Iodine Chemistry under Radiation (EPICUR), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-Behaviour of Iodine Project, and OECD-Source Term Evaluation and Mitigation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) has joined these programs and is developing a simplified, stand-alone iodine chemistry model, RAIM (Radio-Active Iodine chemistry Model), based on the IMOD methodology and other previous studies. This model deals with chemical reactions associated with the formation and destruction of iodine species and surface reactions in the containment atmosphere and the sump in a simple manner. RAIM was applied to a simulation of four EPICUR tests and one Radioiodine Test Facility test, which were carried out in aqueous or gaseous phases. After analysis, the results show a trend of underestimation of organic and molecular iodine for the gas-phase experiments, the opposite of that for the aqueous-phase ones, whereas the total amount of volatile iodine species agrees well between the experiment and the analysis result.

  19. Cyber Physical Intelligence for Oil Spills (CPI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lary, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The National Academy of Sciences estimate 1.7 to 8.8 million tons of oil are released into global waters every year. The effects of these spills include dead wildlife, oil covered marshlands and contaminated water. Deepwater horizon cost approximately $50 billion and severely challenged response capabilities. In such large spills optimizing a coordinated response is a particular challenge. This challenge can be met in a revolutionary new way by using an objectively optimized Cyber Physical Decision Making System (CPS) for rapid response products and a framework for objectively optimized decision-making in an uncertain environment. The CPS utilizes machine learning for the processing of the massive real-time streams of Big Data from comprehensive hyperspectral remote sensing acquired by a team of low-cost robotic aerial vehicles, providing a real-time aerial view and stream of hyperspectral imagery from the near UV to the thermal infrared, and a characterization of oil thickness, oil type and oil weathering. The objective decision making paradigm is modeled on the human brain and provides the optimal course trajectory for response vessels to achieve the most expeditious cleanup of oil spills using the available resources. In addition, oil spill cleanups often involve surface oil burns that can lead to air quality issues. The aerial vehicles comprehensively characterize air quality in real-time, streaming location, temperature, pressure, humidity, the abundance of 6 criterion pollutants (O3, CO, NO, NO2, SO2, and H2S) and the full size distribution of airborne particulates. This CPS can be readily applied to other systems in agriculture, water conversation, monitoring of stream quality, air quality, diagnosing risk of wild fires, etc..

  20. Theoretical D