Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics
Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.
2017-01-01
Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture
Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics
Jeong, Jaehong
2017-11-28
Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.
Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms
2015-01-01
Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.
Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach
Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.
2017-11-01
Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.
Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?
Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.
2017-09-01
There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across
A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D’Aubigny Gérard
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP, valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis.
Modelling malaria treatment practices in Bangladesh using spatial statistics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haque Ubydul
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria treatment-seeking practices vary worldwide and Bangladesh is no exception. Individuals from 88 villages in Rajasthali were asked about their treatment-seeking practices. A portion of these households preferred malaria treatment from the National Control Programme, but still a large number of households continued to use drug vendors and approximately one fourth of the individuals surveyed relied exclusively on non-control programme treatments. The risks of low-control programme usage include incomplete malaria treatment, possible misuse of anti-malarial drugs, and an increased potential for drug resistance. Methods The spatial patterns of treatment-seeking practices were first examined using hot-spot analysis (Local Getis-Ord Gi statistic and then modelled using regression. Ordinary least squares (OLS regression identified key factors explaining more than 80% of the variation in control programme and vendor treatment preferences. Geographically weighted regression (GWR was then used to assess where each factor was a strong predictor of treatment-seeking preferences. Results Several factors including tribal affiliation, housing materials, household densities, education levels, and proximity to the regional urban centre, were found to be effective predictors of malaria treatment-seeking preferences. The predictive strength of each of these factors, however, varied across the study area. While education, for example, was a strong predictor in some villages, it was less important for predicting treatment-seeking outcomes in other villages. Conclusion Understanding where each factor is a strong predictor of treatment-seeking outcomes may help in planning targeted interventions aimed at increasing control programme usage. Suggested strategies include providing additional training for the Building Resources across Communities (BRAC health workers, implementing educational programmes, and addressing economic factors.
Handbook of Spatial Statistics
Gelfand, Alan E
2010-01-01
Offers an introduction detailing the evolution of the field of spatial statistics. This title focuses on the three main branches of spatial statistics: continuous spatial variation (point referenced data); discrete spatial variation, including lattice and areal unit data; and, spatial point patterns.
Huser, Raphaë l; Opitz, Thomas; Thibaud, Emeric
2018-01-01
Extreme-value theory for stochastic processes has motivated the statistical use of max-stable models for spatial extremes. However, fitting such asymptotic models to maxima observed over finite blocks is problematic when the asymptotic stability
Getis, Arthur
1997-01-01
In recent years, spatial analysis has become an increasingly active field, as evidenced by the establishment of educational and research programs at many universities. Its popularity is due mainly to new technologies and the development of spatial data infrastructures. This book illustrates some recent developments in spatial analysis, behavioural modelling, and computational intelligence. World renown spatial analysts explain and demonstrate their new and insightful models and methods. The applications are in areas of societal interest such as the spread of infectious diseases, migration behaviour, and retail and agricultural location strategies. In addition, there is emphasis on the uses of new technologoies for the analysis of spatial data through the application of neural network concepts.
Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data
Daniel J. Isaak; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Seth J. Wenger; Jeffrey A. Falke; Christian E. Torgersen; Colin Sowder; E. Ashley Steel; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Aaron S. Ruesch; Nicholas Som; Pascal. Monestiez
2014-01-01
Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erfan Ayubi
2017-05-01
Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fouque, A.L.; Ciuciu, Ph.; Risser, L.; Fouque, A.L.; Ciuciu, Ph.; Risser, L.
2009-01-01
In this paper, a novel statistical parcellation of intra-subject functional MRI (fMRI) data is proposed. The key idea is to identify functionally homogenous regions of interest from their hemodynamic parameters. To this end, a non-parametric voxel-based estimation of hemodynamic response function is performed as a prerequisite. Then, the extracted hemodynamic features are entered as the input data of a Multivariate Spatial Gaussian Mixture Model (MSGMM) to be fitted. The goal of the spatial aspect is to favor the recovery of connected components in the mixture. Our statistical clustering approach is original in the sense that it extends existing works done on univariate spatially regularized Gaussian mixtures. A specific Gibbs sampler is derived to account for different covariance structures in the feature space. On realistic artificial fMRI datasets, it is shown that our algorithm is helpful for identifying a parsimonious functional parcellation required in the context of joint detection estimation of brain activity. This allows us to overcome the classical assumption of spatial stationarity of the BOLD signal model. (authors)
Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)
Braverman, Amy J.; Nguyen, Hai M.; Cressie, Noel
2013-01-01
As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is
Huser, Raphaël
2018-01-09
Extreme-value theory for stochastic processes has motivated the statistical use of max-stable models for spatial extremes. However, fitting such asymptotic models to maxima observed over finite blocks is problematic when the asymptotic stability of the dependence does not prevail in finite samples. This issue is particularly serious when data are asymptotically independent, such that the dependence strength weakens and eventually vanishes as events become more extreme. We here aim to provide flexible sub-asymptotic models for spatially indexed block maxima, which more realistically account for discrepancies between data and asymptotic theory. We develop models pertaining to the wider class of max-infinitely divisible processes, extending the class of max-stable processes while retaining dependence properties that are natural for maxima: max-id models are positively associated, and they yield a self-consistent family of models for block maxima defined over any time unit. We propose two parametric construction principles for max-id models, emphasizing a point process-based generalized spectral representation, that allows for asymptotic independence while keeping the max-stable extremal-$t$ model as a special case. Parameter estimation is efficiently performed by pairwise likelihood, and we illustrate our new modeling framework with an application to Dutch wind gust maxima calculated over different time units.
Straub, Annette; Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Geruschkat, Uta; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Kühlbach, Benjamin; Kusch, Thomas; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Umminger, Robin; Wolf, Kathrin
2017-04-01
Frequently spatial variations of air temperature of considerable magnitude occur within urban areas. They correspond to varying land use/land cover characteristics and vary with season, time of day and synoptic conditions. These temperature differences have an impact on human health and comfort directly by inducing thermal stress as well as indirectly by means of affecting air quality. Therefore, knowledge of the spatial patterns of air temperature in cities and the factors causing them is of great importance, e.g. for urban planners. A multitude of studies have shown statistical modelling to be a suitable tool for generating spatial air temperature patterns. This contribution presents a comparison of different statistical modelling approaches for deriving spatial air temperature patterns in the urban environment of Augsburg, Southern Germany. In Augsburg there exists a measurement network for air temperature and humidity currently comprising 48 stations in the city and its rural surroundings (corporately operated by the Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health and the Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg). Using different datasets for land surface characteristics (Open Street Map, Urban Atlas) area percentages of different types of land cover were calculated for quadratic buffer zones of different size (25, 50, 100, 250, 500 m) around the stations as well for source regions of advective air flow and used as predictors together with additional variables such as sky view factor, ground level and distance from the city centre. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest models for different situations taking into account season, time of day and weather condition were applied utilizing selected subsets of these predictors in order to model spatial distributions of mean hourly and daily air temperature deviations from a rural reference station. Furthermore, the different model setups were
Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; R Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell
2017-01-01
In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus . An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khalifa M. Al-Kindi
2017-08-01
Full Text Available In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus. An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.
Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo
2010-05-01
Extreme precipitation events are one of the causes of natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, making its investigation so important, and this research aims to contribute to the study of the extreme rainfall patterns in a Portuguese mountainous area. The study area is centred on the Arcos de Valdevez county, located in the northwest region of Portugal, the rainiest of the country, with more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall at the Peneda-Gerês mountain system. This work focus on two main subjects related with the precipitation variability on the study area. First, a statistical analysis of several precipitation parameters is carried out, using daily data from 17 rain-gauges with a complete record for the 1960-1995 period. This approach aims to evaluate the main spatial contrasts regarding different aspects of the rainfall regime, described by ten parameters and indices of precipitation extremes (e.g. mean annual precipitation, the annual frequency of precipitation days, wet spells durations, maximum daily precipitation, maximum of precipitation in 30 days, number of days with rainfall exceeding 100 mm and estimated maximum daily rainfall for a return period of 100 years). The results show that the highest precipitation amounts (from annual to daily scales) and the higher frequency of very abundant rainfall events occur in the Serra da Peneda and Gerês mountains, opposing to the valleys of the Lima, Minho and Vez rivers, with lower precipitation amounts and less frequent heavy storms. The second purpose of this work is to find a method of mapping extreme rainfall in this mountainous region, investigating the complex influence of the relief (e.g. elevation, topography) on the precipitation patterns, as well others geographical variables (e.g. distance from coast, latitude), applying tested geo-statistical techniques (Goovaerts, 2000; Diodato, 2005). Models of linear regression were applied to evaluate the influence of different geographical variables (altitude
Likelihood devices in spatial statistics
Zwet, E.W. van
1999-01-01
One of the main themes of this thesis is the application to spatial data of modern semi- and nonparametric methods. Another, closely related theme is maximum likelihood estimation from spatial data. Maximum likelihood estimation is not common practice in spatial statistics. The method of moments
Robin M. Reich; C. Aguirre-Bravo; M.S. Williams
2006-01-01
A statistical strategy for spatial estimation and modeling of natural and environmental resource variables and indicators is presented. This strategy is part of an inventory and monitoring pilot study that is being carried out in the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima. Fine spatial resolution estimates of key variables and indicators are outputs that will allow the...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mansour Halimi
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Objective: To model spatial relationship between climatic conditions and annual parasite incidence (API of malaria in southern part of Sistan&Balouchistan Province of Iran using spatial statistic models . Methods: A geographical weighted regression model was applied for predicting API by 3 climatic factors in order to model the spatial API of malaria in Sistan&Baluchistan Province of Iran. Results: The results indicated that most important climatic factor for explaining API in Sistan&Baluchistan was annual rainfall being of more importance in southern part of study area such as Chabahar, and Nikshar. The temperature and relative humidity are of the second and third priority respectively. The importance of these two climatic factors is higher in northern part of the studied region. The spatial autocorrelation (Moran ’s I for standard residual of applied geographical weighted regression model is -0.022 which indicated no spatial patterns. Conclusions: This model explained only 0.51 of API spatial variation (R2=0.51. Thus, the nonclimatic factors such as socioeconomic, lifestyle and the neighborhood position of this province with Afghanistan, and Pakistan also should be considered in epidemiological survey of malaria in Sistan&Baluchistan.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Siljander, M.
2010-07-01
This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Aaland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics
Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal
Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen
2017-04-01
General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All
Taggart, T. P.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.
2014-12-01
Gray and green infrastructure in urban environments alters many natural hydrologic processes, creating an urban water balance unique to the developed environment. A common way to assess the consequences of impervious cover and grey infrastructure is by measuring runoff hydrographs. This focus on the watershed outlet masks the spatial variation of hydrologic process alterations across the urban environment in response to localized landscape characteristics. We attempt to represent this spatial variation in the urban environment using the statistically and spatially distributed i-Tree Hydro model, a scoping level urban forest effects water balance model. i-Tree Hydro has undergone expansion and modification to include the effect of green infrastructure processes, road network attributes, and urban pipe system leakages. These additions to the model are intended to increase the understanding of the altered urban hydrologic cycle by examining the effects of the location of these structures on the water balance. Specifically, the effect of these additional structures and functions on the spatially varying properties of interception, soil moisture and runoff generation. Differences in predicted properties and optimized parameter sets between the two models are examined and related to the recent landscape modifications. Datasets used in this study consist of watersheds and sewersheds within the Syracuse, NY metropolitan area, an urban area that has integrated green and gray infrastructure practices to alleviate stormwater problems.
Statistical methods in spatial genetics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guillot, Gilles; Leblois, Raphael; Coulon, Aurelie
2009-01-01
The joint analysis of spatial and genetic data is rapidly becoming the norm in population genetics. More and more studies explicitly describe and quantify the spatial organization of genetic variation and try to relate it to underlying ecological processes. As it has become increasingly difficult...... to keep abreast with the latest methodological developments, we review the statistical toolbox available to analyse population genetic data in a spatially explicit framework. We mostly focus on statistical concepts but also discuss practical aspects of the analytical methods, highlighting not only...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ozonoff Al
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM
Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F
2010-07-19
A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression
Statistical model of natural stimuli predicts edge-like pooling of spatial frequency channels in V2
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gutmann Michael
2005-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been shown that the classical receptive fields of simple and complex cells in the primary visual cortex emerge from the statistical properties of natural images by forcing the cell responses to be maximally sparse or independent. We investigate how to learn features beyond the primary visual cortex from the statistical properties of modelled complex-cell outputs. In previous work, we showed that a new model, non-negative sparse coding, led to the emergence of features which code for contours of a given spatial frequency band. Results We applied ordinary independent component analysis to modelled outputs of complex cells that span different frequency bands. The analysis led to the emergence of features which pool spatially coherent across-frequency activity in the modelled primary visual cortex. Thus, the statistically optimal way of processing complex-cell outputs abandons separate frequency channels, while preserving and even enhancing orientation tuning and spatial localization. As a technical aside, we found that the non-negativity constraint is not necessary: ordinary independent component analysis produces essentially the same results as our previous work. Conclusion We propose that the pooling that emerges allows the features to code for realistic low-level image features related to step edges. Further, the results prove the viability of statistical modelling of natural images as a framework that produces quantitative predictions of visual processing.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erin Peterson
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper describes the STARS ArcGIS geoprocessing toolset, which is used to calcu- late the spatial information needed to fit spatial statistical models to stream network data using the SSN package. The STARS toolset is designed for use with a landscape network (LSN, which is a topological data model produced by the FLoWS ArcGIS geoprocessing toolset. An overview of the FLoWS LSN structure and a few particularly useful tools is also provided so that users will have a clear understanding of the underlying data struc- ture that the STARS toolset depends on. This document may be used as an introduction to new users. The methods used to calculate the spatial information and format the final .ssn object are also explicitly described so that users may create their own .ssn object using other data models and software.
A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages
Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by
Hawthorne L. Beyer; Jeff Jenness; Samuel A. Cushman
2010-01-01
Spatial information systems (SIS) is a term that describes a wide diversity of concepts, techniques, and technologies related to the capture, management, display and analysis of spatial information. It encompasses technologies such as geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), remote sensing, and relational database management systems (...
Non-standard spatial statistics and spatial econometrics
Griffith, Daniel A
2011-01-01
Spatial statistics and spatial econometrics are recent sprouts of the tree "spatial analysis with measurement". Still, several general themes have emerged. Exploring selected fields of possible interest is tantalizing, and this is what the authors aim here.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorson, James T.; Kristensen, Kasper
2016-01-01
Statistical models play an important role in fisheries science when reconciling ecological theory with available data for wild populations or experimental studies. Ecological models increasingly include both fixed and random effects, and are often estimated using maximum likelihood techniques...... configurations of an age-structured population dynamics model. This simulation experiment shows that the epsilon-method and the existing bias-correction method perform equally well in data-rich contexts, but the epsilon-method is slightly less biased in data-poor contexts. We then apply the epsilon......-method to a spatial regression model when estimating an index of population abundance, and compare results with an alternative bias-correction algorithm that involves Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. This example shows that the epsilon-method leads to a biologically significant difference in estimates of average...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mabaso Musawenkosi LH
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have
Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen
2017-06-01
Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Ke; Chen, Guang-Hong, E-mail: gchen7@wisc.edu [Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1111 Highland Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 and Department of Radiology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 600 Highland Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States); Garrett, John; Ge, Yongshuai [Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1111 Highland Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States)
2014-07-15
Purpose: Statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) methods have been introduced to clinical CT systems and are being used in some clinical diagnostic applications. The purpose of this paper is to experimentally assess the unique spatial resolution characteristics of this nonlinear reconstruction method and identify its potential impact on the detectabilities and the associated radiation dose levels for specific imaging tasks. Methods: The thoracic section of a pediatric phantom was repeatedly scanned 50 or 100 times using a 64-slice clinical CT scanner at four different dose levels [CTDI{sub vol} =4, 8, 12, 16 (mGy)]. Both filtered backprojection (FBP) and MBIR (Veo{sup ®}, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) were used for image reconstruction and results were compared with one another. Eight test objects in the phantom with contrast levels ranging from 13 to 1710 HU were used to assess spatial resolution. The axial spatial resolution was quantified with the point spread function (PSF), while the z resolution was quantified with the slice sensitivity profile. Both were measured locally on the test objects and in the image domain. The dependence of spatial resolution on contrast and dose levels was studied. The study also features a systematic investigation of the potential trade-off between spatial resolution and locally defined noise and their joint impact on the overall image quality, which was quantified by the image domain-based channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) detectability index d′. Results: (1) The axial spatial resolution of MBIR depends on both radiation dose level and image contrast level, whereas it is supposedly independent of these two factors in FBP. The axial spatial resolution of MBIR always improved with an increasing radiation dose level and/or contrast level. (2) The axial spatial resolution of MBIR became equivalent to that of FBP at some transitional contrast level, above which MBIR demonstrated superior spatial resolution than
Spatial analysis statistics, visualization, and computational methods
Oyana, Tonny J
2015-01-01
An introductory text for the next generation of geospatial analysts and data scientists, Spatial Analysis: Statistics, Visualization, and Computational Methods focuses on the fundamentals of spatial analysis using traditional, contemporary, and computational methods. Outlining both non-spatial and spatial statistical concepts, the authors present practical applications of geospatial data tools, techniques, and strategies in geographic studies. They offer a problem-based learning (PBL) approach to spatial analysis-containing hands-on problem-sets that can be worked out in MS Excel or ArcGIS-as well as detailed illustrations and numerous case studies. The book enables readers to: Identify types and characterize non-spatial and spatial data Demonstrate their competence to explore, visualize, summarize, analyze, optimize, and clearly present statistical data and results Construct testable hypotheses that require inferential statistical analysis Process spatial data, extract explanatory variables, conduct statisti...
Spatial Statistical Network Models for Stream and River Temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Numerous metrics have been proposed to describe stream/river thermal regimes, and researchers are still struggling with the need to describe thermal regimes in a parsimonious fashion. Regional temperature models are needed for characterizing and mapping current stream thermal re...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyunwoo Kang
2017-08-01
New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.
Statistical mechanics of spatial evolutionary games
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miekisz, Jacek
2004-01-01
We discuss the long-run behaviour of stochastic dynamics of many interacting players in spatial evolutionary games. In particular, we investigate the effect of the number of players and the noise level on the stochastic stability of Nash equilibria. We discuss similarities and differences between systems of interacting players maximizing their individual payoffs and particles minimizing their interaction energy. We use concepts and techniques of statistical mechanics to study game-theoretic models. In order to obtain results in the case of the so-called potential games, we analyse the thermodynamic limit of the appropriate models of interacting particles
A nonparametric spatial scan statistic for continuous data.
Jung, Inkyung; Cho, Ho Jin
2015-10-20
Spatial scan statistics are widely used for spatial cluster detection, and several parametric models exist. For continuous data, a normal-based scan statistic can be used. However, the performance of the model has not been fully evaluated for non-normal data. We propose a nonparametric spatial scan statistic based on the Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic and compared the performance of the method with parametric models via a simulation study under various scenarios. The nonparametric method outperforms the normal-based scan statistic in terms of power and accuracy in almost all cases under consideration in the simulation study. The proposed nonparametric spatial scan statistic is therefore an excellent alternative to the normal model for continuous data and is especially useful for data following skewed or heavy-tailed distributions.
Tucker tensor analysis of Matern functions in spatial statistics
Litvinenko, Alexander
2018-04-20
Low-rank Tucker tensor methods in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical models 2. Motivation: disadvantages of matrices 3. Tools: Tucker tensor format 4. Tensor approximation of Matern covariance function via FFT 5. Typical statistical operations in Tucker tensor format 6. Numerical experiments
Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong
2013-01-01
As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel A. Griffith
1998-02-01
Full Text Available Computational simplifications for a space-time autoregressive response model specification are explored for the change in Spain's per capita disposable family income between 1975 and 1983. The geographic resolution for this analysis is the provincial partitioning of part of the Iberian peninsula into Spain's 47 coterminous provinces coupled with its 3 island clusters provinces. In keeping with the Paelinckian tradition of spatial econometrics, exploration focuses on both new spatial econometric estimators and model specifications that emphasize the capturing of spatial dependency effects in the mean response term. One goal of this analysis is to differentiate between spatial, temporal, and space-time interaction information contained in the per capita disposable family income data. A second objective of the application is to illustrate the utility of extending computational simplifications from the spatial to the space-time domain. And a third purpose is to gain some substantive insights into the economic development of one country in a changing Europe. A serendipitous outcome of this investigation is a detailed analysis of locational information latent in Spain's regionally disaggregated per capita disposable family income.
Statistics of spatially integrated speckle intensity difference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hanson, Steen Grüner; Yura, Harold
2009-01-01
We consider the statistics of the spatially integrated speckle intensity difference obtained from two separated finite collecting apertures. For fully developed speckle, closed-form analytic solutions for both the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function are derived...... here for both arbitrary values of the mean number of speckles contained within an aperture and the degree of coherence of the optical field. Additionally, closed-form expressions are obtained for the corresponding nth statistical moments....
Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.
2001-01-01
This study illustrates the use of modern statistical procedures for better wildlife management by addressing three key issues: determination of abundance, modeling of animal distributions and variability of diversity in space and time. Prior information in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is
Spatial scan statistics using elliptic windows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Andersen, Jens Strodl; Wegener, Henrik Caspar
The spatial scan statistic is widely used to search for clusters in epidemiologic data. This paper shows that the usually applied elimination of secondary clusters as implemented in SatScan is sensitive to smooth changes in the shape of the clusters. We present an algorithm for generation of set...
Spatial scan statistics using elliptic windows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Andersen, Jens Strodl; Wegener, Henrik Caspar
2006-01-01
The spatial scan statistic is widely used to search for clusters. This article shows that the usually applied elimination of secondary clusters as implemented in SatScan is sensitive to smooth changes in the shape of the clusters. We present an algorithm for generation of a set of confocal elliptic...
Statistical Model of Extreme Shear
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose
2004-01-01
In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....
Planar-channeling spatial density under statistical equilibrium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ellison, J.A.; Picraux, S.T.
1978-01-01
The phase-space density for planar channeled particles has been derived for the continuum model under statistical equilibrium. This is used to obtain the particle spatial probability density as a function of incident angle. The spatial density is shown to depend on only two parameters, a normalized incident angle and a normalized planar spacing. This normalization is used to obtain, by numerical calculation, a set of universal curves for the spatial density and also for the channeled-particle wavelength as a function of amplitude. Using these universal curves, the statistical-equilibrium spatial density and the channeled-particle wavelength can be easily obtained for any case for which the continuum model can be applied. Also, a new one-parameter analytic approximation to the spatial density is developed. This parabolic approximation is shown to give excellent agreement with the exact calculations
Modern Statistics for Spatial Point Processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus
2007-01-01
We summarize and discuss the current state of spatial point process theory and directions for future research, making an analogy with generalized linear models and random effect models, and illustrating the theory with various examples of applications. In particular, we consider Poisson, Gibbs...
Modern statistics for spatial point processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Waagepetersen, Rasmus
We summarize and discuss the current state of spatial point process theory and directions for future research, making an analogy with generalized linear models and random effect models, and illustrating the theory with various examples of applications. In particular, we consider Poisson, Gibbs...
Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin
2017-11-01
This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.
Statistical Model of Extreme Shear
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.
2005-01-01
In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...
Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...
Thermodynamic Model of Spatial Memory
Kaufman, Miron; Allen, P.
1998-03-01
We develop and test a thermodynamic model of spatial memory. Our model is an application of statistical thermodynamics to cognitive science. It is related to applications of the statistical mechanics framework in parallel distributed processes research. Our macroscopic model allows us to evaluate an entropy associated with spatial memory tasks. We find that older adults exhibit higher levels of entropy than younger adults. Thurstone's Law of Categorical Judgment, according to which the discriminal processes along the psychological continuum produced by presentations of a single stimulus are normally distributed, is explained by using a Hooke spring model of spatial memory. We have also analyzed a nonlinear modification of the ideal spring model of spatial memory. This work is supported by NIH/NIA grant AG09282-06.
Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime
2009-12-01
This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.
Monte Carlo testing in spatial statistics, with applications to spatial residuals
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mrkvička, Tomáš; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Myllymäki, Mari
2016-01-01
This paper reviews recent advances made in testing in spatial statistics and discussed at the Spatial Statistics conference in Avignon 2015. The rank and directional quantile envelope tests are discussed and practical rules for their use are provided. These tests are global envelope tests...... with an appropriate type I error probability. Two novel examples are given on their usage. First, in addition to the test based on a classical one-dimensional summary function, the goodness-of-fit of a point process model is evaluated by means of the test based on a higher dimensional functional statistic, namely...
A spatial scan statistic for compound Poisson data.
Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Chang, Hsing-Ming
2013-12-20
The topic of spatial cluster detection gained attention in statistics during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Effort has been devoted to the development of methods for detecting spatial clustering of cases and events in the biological sciences, astronomy and epidemiology. More recently, research has examined detecting clusters of correlated count data associated with health conditions of individuals. Such a method allows researchers to examine spatial relationships of disease-related events rather than just incident or prevalent cases. We introduce a spatial scan test that identifies clusters of events in a study region. Because an individual case may have multiple (repeated) events, we base the test on a compound Poisson model. We illustrate our method for cluster detection on emergency department visits, where individuals may make multiple disease-related visits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Diffeomorphic Statistical Deformation Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Michael Sass; Hansen, Mads/Fogtman; Larsen, Rasmus
2007-01-01
In this paper we present a new method for constructing diffeomorphic statistical deformation models in arbitrary dimensional images with a nonlinear generative model and a linear parameter space. Our deformation model is a modified version of the diffeomorphic model introduced by Cootes et al....... The modifications ensure that no boundary restriction has to be enforced on the parameter space to prevent folds or tears in the deformation field. For straightforward statistical analysis, principal component analysis and sparse methods, we assume that the parameters for a class of deformations lie on a linear...... with ground truth in form of manual expert annotations, and compared to Cootes's model. We anticipate applications in unconstrained diffeomorphic synthesis of images, e.g. for tracking, segmentation, registration or classification purposes....
Temporal scaling and spatial statistical analyses of groundwater level fluctuations
Sun, H.; Yuan, L., Sr.; Zhang, Y.
2017-12-01
Natural dynamics such as groundwater level fluctuations can exhibit multifractionality and/or multifractality due likely to multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. This study explores multifractionality and non-Gaussian properties in groundwater dynamics expressed by time series of daily level fluctuation at three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley, after removing the seasonal cycle in the temporal scaling and spatial statistical analysis. First, using the time-scale multifractional analysis, a systematic statistical method is developed to analyze groundwater level fluctuations quantified by the time-scale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE). Results show that the TS-LHE does not remain constant, implying the fractal-scaling behavior changing with time and location. Hence, we can distinguish the potentially location-dependent scaling feature, which may characterize the hydrology dynamic system. Second, spatial statistical analysis shows that the increment of groundwater level fluctuations exhibits a heavy tailed, non-Gaussian distribution, which can be better quantified by a Lévy stable distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of the fluctuation process also show that the linear fractional stable motion model can well depict the transient dynamics (i.e., fractal non-Gaussian property) of groundwater level, while fractional Brownian motion is inadequate to describe natural processes with anomalous dynamics. Analysis of temporal scaling and spatial statistics therefore may provide useful information and quantification to understand further the nature of complex dynamics in hydrology.
Bias expansion of spatial statistics and approximation of differenced ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Investigations of spatial statistics, computed from lattice data in the plane, can lead to a special lattice point counting problem. The statistical goal is to expand the asymptotic expectation or large-sample bias of certain spatial covariance estimators, where this bias typically depends on the shape of a spatial sampling region.
Litvinenko, Alexander
2018-03-12
Part 1: Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro. Part 2: Low-rank Tucker tensor methods in spatial statistics
Lawson, Andrew B
2002-01-01
Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this book reviews the state-of-the-art in spatial clustering and spatial cluster modelling, bringing together research and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. It begins with an overview of the field, then presents a series of chapters that illuminate the nature and purpose of cluster modelling within different application areas, including astrophysics, epidemiology, ecology, and imaging. The focus then shifts to methods, with discussions on point and object process modelling, perfect sampling of cluster processes, partitioning in space and space-time, spatial and spatio-temporal process modelling, nonparametric methods for clustering, and spatio-temporal ...
Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature ... CGCM3; HadCM3; modified Mann–Kendall test; statistical analysis; Sutlej basin. ... Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 ...
Statistical learning as a tool for rehabilitation in spatial neglect.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Albulena eShaqiri
2013-05-01
Full Text Available We propose that neglect includes a disorder of representational updating. Representational updating refers to our ability to build mental models and adapt those models to changing experience. This updating ability depends on the processes of priming, working memory, and statistical learning. These processes in turn interact with our capabilities for sustained attention and precise temporal processing. We review evidence showing that all these non-spatial abilities are impaired in neglect, and we discuss how recognition of such deficits can lead to novel approaches for rehabilitating neglect.
Spatial statistics for predicting flow through a rock fracture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coakley, K.J.
1989-03-01
Fluid flow through a single rock fracture depends on the shape of the space between the upper and lower pieces of rock which define the fracture. In this thesis, the normalized flow through a fracture, i.e. the equivalent permeability of a fracture, is predicted in terms of spatial statistics computed from the arrangement of voids, i.e. open spaces, and contact areas within the fracture. Patterns of voids and contact areas, with complexity typical of experimental data, are simulated by clipping a correlated Gaussian process defined on a N by N pixel square region. The voids have constant aperture; the distance between the upper and lower surfaces which define the fracture is either zero or a constant. Local flow is assumed to be proportional to local aperture cubed times local pressure gradient. The flow through a pattern of voids and contact areas is solved using a finite-difference method. After solving for the flow through simulated 10 by 10 by 30 pixel patterns of voids and contact areas, a model to predict equivalent permeability is developed. The first model is for patterns with 80% voids where all voids have the same aperture. The equivalent permeability of a pattern is predicted in terms of spatial statistics computed from the arrangement of voids and contact areas within the pattern. Four spatial statistics are examined. The change point statistic measures how often adjacent pixel alternate from void to contact area (or vice versa ) in the rows of the patterns which are parallel to the overall flow direction. 37 refs., 66 figs., 41 tabs
Screening for collusion: a spatial statistics approach
Heijnen, P.; Haan, M.A.; Soetevent, A.R.
2012-01-01
We develop a method to screen for local cartels. We first test whether there is statistical evidence of clustering of outlets that score high on some characteristic that is consistent with collusive behavior. If so, we determine in a second step the most suspicious regions where further antitrust
Screening for collusion: a spatial statistics approach
Heijnen, P.; Haan, M.A.; Soetevent, A.R.
2015-01-01
We develop a method to screen for local cartels. We first test whether there is statistical evidence of clustering of outlets that score high on some characteristic that is consistent with collusive behavior. If so, we determine in a second step the most suspicious regions where further antitrust
Screening for collusion : A spatial statistics approach
Heijnen, Pim; Haan, Marco A.; Soetevent, Adriaan R.
2015-01-01
We develop a method to screen for local cartels. We first test whether there is statistical evidence of clustering of outlets that score high on some characteristic that is consistent with collusive behavior. If so, we determine in a second step the most suspicious regions where further antitrust
RADSS: an integration of GIS, spatial statistics, and network service for regional data mining
Hu, Haitang; Bao, Shuming; Lin, Hui; Zhu, Qing
2005-10-01
Regional data mining, which aims at the discovery of knowledge about spatial patterns, clusters or association between regions, has widely applications nowadays in social science, such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, crime, and so on. Many applications in the regional or other social sciences are more concerned with the spatial relationship, rather than the precise geographical location. Based on the spatial continuity rule derived from Tobler's first law of geography: observations at two sites tend to be more similar to each other if the sites are close together than if far apart, spatial statistics, as an important means for spatial data mining, allow the users to extract the interesting and useful information like spatial pattern, spatial structure, spatial association, spatial outlier and spatial interaction, from the vast amount of spatial data or non-spatial data. Therefore, by integrating with the spatial statistical methods, the geographical information systems will become more powerful in gaining further insights into the nature of spatial structure of regional system, and help the researchers to be more careful when selecting appropriate models. However, the lack of such tools holds back the application of spatial data analysis techniques and development of new methods and models (e.g., spatio-temporal models). Herein, we make an attempt to develop such an integrated software and apply it into the complex system analysis for the Poyang Lake Basin. This paper presents a framework for integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service in regional data mining, as well as their implementation. After discussing the spatial statistics methods involved in regional complex system analysis, we introduce RADSS (Regional Analysis and Decision Support System), our new regional data mining tool, by integrating GIS, spatial statistics and network service. RADSS includes the functions of spatial data visualization, exploratory spatial data analysis, and
spatial statistics of poultry production in anambra state of nigeria
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
case study. Spatial statistics toolbox in ArcGIS was used to generate point density map which reveal the regional .... Global Positioning System (GPS) .... report generated is shown in Figure . .... for the analysis of crime incident locations. Ned.
Tan, Mei-xiu; Wang, Jing; Yu, Wei-dong; He, Di; Wang, Na; Dai, Tong; Sun, Yan; Tang, Jian-zhao; Chang, Qing
2015-12-01
Sowing date is one of the vital factors for determining crop yield. In this study, temporal and spatial variation of optimal sowing date of summer maize was analyzed by statistical model and the APSIM-Maize model in Henan Province, China. The results showed that average summer maize optimal sowing dates ranged from May 30 to June 13 across Henan Province with earlier sowing before June 8 in the southern part and later sowing from June 4 to June 13 in the northern part. The optimal sowing date in mountain area of western Henan Province should be around May 30. Late-maturing variety Nongda 108 should be planted at least two days earlier than middle-maturing variety Danyu 13. Under climate warming background, maize sowing should be postponed for at least 3 days if maize harvesting date could be delayed for a week. It was proposed that sowing should be delayed for about a week for a yearly less precipitation pattern while advanced for about a week for a yearly more precipitation pattern compared to the normal one. Across Henan Province, the optimal sowing dates of summer maize showed no significant change trend in 1971-2010, while the potential sowing period had been extended for some regions, such as south from Zhumadian, Yichuan, Nei-xiang and Nanyang in the middle part of Henan, Linzhou in the northern Henan and Sanmenxia in the western Henan, as a result from advanced maturity of winter wheat due to increasing temperature and winter wheat cultivar change. Optimal sowing dates at 76.7% of the study stations showed no significant difference between the two methods. It was recommended that the northern Henan should sow maize immediately after any rainfall and replant afterward, while the southern Henan should not sow maize until that there were valid precipitation (3.9 mm and 8.3 mm for upper south and south parts, respectively) during sowing period, both required enough precipitation during key water requirement period and optimal temperature during grain
Exclusion statistics and integrable models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mashkevich, S.
1998-01-01
The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open
Discussion of "Modern statistics for spatial point processes"
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel; Prokesová, Michaela; Hellmund, Gunnar
2007-01-01
ABSTRACT. The paper ‘Modern statistics for spatial point processes’ by Jesper Møller and Rasmus P. Waagepetersen is based on a special invited lecture given by the authors at the 21st Nordic Conference on Mathematical Statistics, held at Rebild, Denmark, in June 2006. At the conference, Antti...
Analysis of thrips distribution: application of spatial statistics and Kriging
John Aleong; Bruce L. Parker; Margaret Skinner; Diantha Howard
1991-01-01
Kriging is a statistical technique that provides predictions for spatially and temporally correlated data. Observations of thrips distribution and density in Vermont soils are made in both space and time. Traditional statistical analysis of such data assumes that the counts taken over space and time are independent, which is not necessarily true. Therefore, to analyze...
Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data
Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E
2003-01-01
Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat
Exclusion statistics and integrable models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mashkevich, S.
1998-01-01
The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question
Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Duczmal Luiz H
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. Results A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. Conclusions A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.
Data-driven inference for the spatial scan statistic.
Almeida, Alexandre C L; Duarte, Anderson R; Duczmal, Luiz H; Oliveira, Fernando L P; Takahashi, Ricardo H C
2011-08-02
Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic for aggregated area maps searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size (number of areas) or geographic location in advance. Their statistical significance is tested while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. However, as is shown in this work, this adjustment is not done in an even manner for all possible cluster sizes. A modification is proposed to the usual inference test of the spatial scan statistic, incorporating additional information about the size of the most likely cluster found. A new interpretation of the results of the spatial scan statistic is done, posing a modified inference question: what is the probability that the null hypothesis is rejected for the original observed cases map with a most likely cluster of size k, taking into account only those most likely clusters of size k found under null hypothesis for comparison? This question is especially important when the p-value computed by the usual inference process is near the alpha significance level, regarding the correctness of the decision based in this inference. A practical procedure is provided to make more accurate inferences about the most likely cluster found by the spatial scan statistic.
Statistically and Computationally Efficient Estimating Equations for Large Spatial Datasets
Sun, Ying
2014-11-07
For Gaussian process models, likelihood based methods are often difficult to use with large irregularly spaced spatial datasets, because exact calculations of the likelihood for n observations require O(n3) operations and O(n2) memory. Various approximation methods have been developed to address the computational difficulties. In this paper, we propose new unbiased estimating equations based on score equation approximations that are both computationally and statistically efficient. We replace the inverse covariance matrix that appears in the score equations by a sparse matrix to approximate the quadratic forms, then set the resulting quadratic forms equal to their expected values to obtain unbiased estimating equations. The sparse matrix is constructed by a sparse inverse Cholesky approach to approximate the inverse covariance matrix. The statistical efficiency of the resulting unbiased estimating equations are evaluated both in theory and by numerical studies. Our methods are applied to nearly 90,000 satellite-based measurements of water vapor levels over a region in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.
Statistically and Computationally Efficient Estimating Equations for Large Spatial Datasets
Sun, Ying; Stein, Michael L.
2014-01-01
For Gaussian process models, likelihood based methods are often difficult to use with large irregularly spaced spatial datasets, because exact calculations of the likelihood for n observations require O(n3) operations and O(n2) memory. Various approximation methods have been developed to address the computational difficulties. In this paper, we propose new unbiased estimating equations based on score equation approximations that are both computationally and statistically efficient. We replace the inverse covariance matrix that appears in the score equations by a sparse matrix to approximate the quadratic forms, then set the resulting quadratic forms equal to their expected values to obtain unbiased estimating equations. The sparse matrix is constructed by a sparse inverse Cholesky approach to approximate the inverse covariance matrix. The statistical efficiency of the resulting unbiased estimating equations are evaluated both in theory and by numerical studies. Our methods are applied to nearly 90,000 satellite-based measurements of water vapor levels over a region in the Southeast Pacific Ocean.
Statistical Compression for Climate Model Output
Hammerling, D.; Guinness, J.; Soh, Y. J.
2017-12-01
Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus is it important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions. We propose a statistical compression and decompression algorithm based on storing a set of summary statistics as well as a statistical model describing the conditional distribution of the full dataset given the summary statistics. We decompress the data by computing conditional expectations and conditional simulations from the model given the summary statistics. Conditional expectations represent our best estimate of the original data but are subject to oversmoothing in space and time. Conditional simulations introduce realistic small-scale noise so that the decompressed fields are neither too smooth nor too rough compared with the original data. Considerable attention is paid to accurately modeling the original dataset-one year of daily mean temperature data-particularly with regard to the inherent spatial nonstationarity in global fields, and to determining the statistics to be stored, so that the variation in the original data can be closely captured, while allowing for fast decompression and conditional emulation on modest computers.
Statistical modeling for degradation data
Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru
2017-01-01
This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.
Statistical modelling with quantile functions
Gilchrist, Warren
2000-01-01
Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...
A Statistical Programme Assignment Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rosholm, Michael; Staghøj, Jonas; Svarer, Michael
When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...... duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the plementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers....
Ghezelbash, Reza; Maghsoudi, Abbas
2018-05-01
The delineation of populations of stream sediment geochemical data is a crucial task in regional exploration surveys. In this contribution, uni-element stream sediment geochemical data of Cu, Au, Mo, and Bi have been subjected to two reliable anomaly-background separation methods, namely, the concentration-area (C-A) fractal and the U-spatial statistics methods to separate geochemical anomalies related to porphyry-type Cu mineralization in northwest Iran. The quantitative comparison of the delineated geochemical populations using the modified success-rate curves revealed the superiority of the U-spatial statistics method over the fractal model. Moreover, geochemical maps of investigated elements revealed strongly positive correlations between strong anomalies and Oligocene-Miocene intrusions in the study area. Therefore, follow-up exploration programs should focus on these areas.
Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics
Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.
2016-01-01
We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.
Application of Parallel Hierarchical Matrices in Spatial Statistics and Parameter Identification
Litvinenko, Alexander
2018-04-20
Parallel H-matrices in spatial statistics 1. Motivation: improve statistical model 2. Tools: Hierarchical matrices [Hackbusch 1999] 3. Matern covariance function and joint Gaussian likelihood 4. Identification of unknown parameters via maximizing Gaussian log-likelihood 5. Implementation with HLIBPro
Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Bortolussi
2016-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.
Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.
Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B
2009-01-01
Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.
Tropical geometry of statistical models.
Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd
2004-11-16
This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.
Statistical, Spatial and Temporal Mapping of 911 Emergencies in Ecuador
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danilo Corral-De-Witt
2018-01-01
Full Text Available A public safety answering point (PSAP receives alerts and attends to emergencies that occur in its responsibility area. The analysis of the events related to a PSAP can give us relevant information in order to manage them and to improve the performance of the first response institutions (FRIs associated to every PSAP. However, current emergency systems are growing dramatically in terms of information heterogeneity and the volume of attended requests. In this work, we propose a system for statistical, spatial, and temporal analysis of incidences registered in a PSAP by using simple, yet robust and compact, event representations. The selected and designed temporal analysis tools include seasonal representations and nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs, which dissociate the main seasonal components and the transients. The spatial analysis tools include a straightforward event location over Google Maps and the detection of heat zones by means of bidimensional geographic Parzen windows with automatic width control in terms of the scales and the number of events in the region of interest. Finally, statistical representations are used for jointly analyzing temporal and spatial data in terms of the “time–space slices”. We analyzed the total number of emergencies that were attended during 2014 by seven FRIs articulated in a PSAP at the Ecuadorian 911 Integrated Security Service. Characteristic weekly patterns were observed in institutions such as the police, health, and transit services, whereas annual patterns were observed in firefighter events. Spatial and spatiotemporal analysis showed some expected patterns together with nontrivial differences among different services, to be taken into account for resource management. The proposed analysis allows for a flexible analysis by combining statistical, spatial and temporal information, and it provides 911 service managers with useful and operative information.
Statistical Models for Social Networks
Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS
2011-01-01
Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For
Statistical inference and visualization in scale-space for spatially dependent images
Vaughan, Amy
2012-03-01
SiZer (SIgnificant ZERo crossing of the derivatives) is a graphical scale-space visualization tool that allows for statistical inferences. In this paper we develop a spatial SiZer for finding significant features and conducting goodness-of-fit tests for spatially dependent images. The spatial SiZer utilizes a family of kernel estimates of the image and provides not only exploratory data analysis but also statistical inference with spatial correlation taken into account. It is also capable of comparing the observed image with a specific null model being tested by adjusting the statistical inference using an assumed covariance structure. Pixel locations having statistically significant differences between the image and a given null model are highlighted by arrows. The spatial SiZer is compared with the existing independent SiZer via the analysis of simulated data with and without signal on both planar and spherical domains. We apply the spatial SiZer method to the decadal temperature change over some regions of the Earth. © 2011 The Korean Statistical Society.
Sensometrics: Thurstonian and Statistical Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen
. sensR is a package for sensory discrimination testing with Thurstonian models and ordinal supports analysis of ordinal data with cumulative link (mixed) models. While sensR is closely connected to the sensometrics field, the ordinal package has developed into a generic statistical package applicable......This thesis is concerned with the development and bridging of Thurstonian and statistical models for sensory discrimination testing as applied in the scientific discipline of sensometrics. In sensory discrimination testing sensory differences between products are detected and quantified by the use...... and sensory discrimination testing in particular in a series of papers by advancing Thurstonian models for a range of sensory discrimination protocols in addition to facilitating their application by providing software for fitting these models. The main focus is on identifying Thurstonian models...
Classical model of intermediate statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaniadakis, G.
1994-01-01
In this work we present a classical kinetic model of intermediate statistics. In the case of Brownian particles we show that the Fermi-Dirac (FD) and Bose-Einstein (BE) distributions can be obtained, just as the Maxwell-Boltzmann (MD) distribution, as steady states of a classical kinetic equation that intrinsically takes into account an exclusion-inclusion principle. In our model the intermediate statistics are obtained as steady states of a system of coupled nonlinear kinetic equations, where the coupling constants are the transmutational potentials η κκ' . We show that, besides the FD-BE intermediate statistics extensively studied from the quantum point of view, we can also study the MB-FD and MB-BE ones. Moreover, our model allows us to treat the three-state mixing FD-MB-BE intermediate statistics. For boson and fermion mixing in a D-dimensional space, we obtain a family of FD-BE intermediate statistics by varying the transmutational potential η BF . This family contains, as a particular case when η BF =0, the quantum statistics recently proposed by L. Wu, Z. Wu, and J. Sun [Phys. Lett. A 170, 280 (1992)]. When we consider the two-dimensional FD-BE statistics, we derive an analytic expression of the fraction of fermions. When the temperature T→∞, the system is composed by an equal number of bosons and fermions, regardless of the value of η BF . On the contrary, when T=0, η BF becomes important and, according to its value, the system can be completely bosonic or fermionic, or composed both by bosons and fermions
Textual information access statistical models
Gaussier, Eric
2013-01-01
This book presents statistical models that have recently been developed within several research communities to access information contained in text collections. The problems considered are linked to applications aiming at facilitating information access:- information extraction and retrieval;- text classification and clustering;- opinion mining;- comprehension aids (automatic summarization, machine translation, visualization).In order to give the reader as complete a description as possible, the focus is placed on the probability models used in the applications
Quantifying spatial and temporal trends in beach-dune volumetric changes using spatial statistics
Eamer, Jordan B. R.; Walker, Ian J.
2013-06-01
Spatial statistics are generally underutilized in coastal geomorphology, despite offering great potential for identifying and quantifying spatial-temporal trends in landscape morphodynamics. In particular, local Moran's Ii provides a statistical framework for detecting clusters of significant change in an attribute (e.g., surface erosion or deposition) and quantifying how this changes over space and time. This study analyzes and interprets spatial-temporal patterns in sediment volume changes in a beach-foredune-transgressive dune complex following removal of invasive marram grass (Ammophila spp.). Results are derived by detecting significant changes in post-removal repeat DEMs derived from topographic surveys and airborne LiDAR. The study site was separated into discrete, linked geomorphic units (beach, foredune, transgressive dune complex) to facilitate sub-landscape scale analysis of volumetric change and sediment budget responses. Difference surfaces derived from a pixel-subtraction algorithm between interval DEMs and the LiDAR baseline DEM were filtered using the local Moran's Ii method and two different spatial weights (1.5 and 5 m) to detect statistically significant change. Moran's Ii results were compared with those derived from a more spatially uniform statistical method that uses a simpler student's t distribution threshold for change detection. Morphodynamic patterns and volumetric estimates were similar between the uniform geostatistical method and Moran's Ii at a spatial weight of 5 m while the smaller spatial weight (1.5 m) consistently indicated volumetric changes of less magnitude. The larger 5 m spatial weight was most representative of broader site morphodynamics and spatial patterns while the smaller spatial weight provided volumetric changes consistent with field observations. All methods showed foredune deflation immediately following removal with increased sediment volumes into the spring via deposition at the crest and on lobes in the lee
Spatial Analysis Along Networks Statistical and Computational Methods
Okabe, Atsuyuki
2012-01-01
In the real world, there are numerous and various events that occur on and alongside networks, including the occurrence of traffic accidents on highways, the location of stores alongside roads, the incidence of crime on streets and the contamination along rivers. In order to carry out analyses of those events, the researcher needs to be familiar with a range of specific techniques. Spatial Analysis Along Networks provides a practical guide to the necessary statistical techniques and their computational implementation. Each chapter illustrates a specific technique, from Stochastic Point Process
Improved model for statistical alignment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)
2001-01-01
The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.
Active Learning with Statistical Models.
1995-01-01
Active Learning with Statistical Models ASC-9217041, NSF CDA-9309300 6. AUTHOR(S) David A. Cohn, Zoubin Ghahramani, and Michael I. Jordan 7. PERFORMING...TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Al, MIT, Artificial Intelligence, active learning , queries, locally weighted 6 regression, LOESS, mixtures of gaussians...COMPUTATIONAL LEARNING DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES A.I. Memo No. 1522 January 9. 1995 C.B.C.L. Paper No. 110 Active Learning with
Spatial and multidimensional visualization of Indonesia's village health statistics.
Parmanto, Bambang; Paramita, Maria V; Sugiantara, Wayan; Pramana, Gede; Scotch, Matthew; Burke, Donald S
2008-06-11
A community health assessment (CHA) is used to identify and address health issues in a given population. Effective CHA requires timely and comprehensive information from a wide variety of sources, such as: socio-economic data, disease surveillance, healthcare utilization, environmental data, and health resource allocation. Indonesia is a developing country with 235 million inhabitants over 13,000 islands. There are significant barriers to conducting CHA in developing countries like Indonesia, such as the high cost of computing resources and the lack of computing skills necessary to support such an assessment. At the University of Pittsburgh, we have developed the Spatial OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing) Visualization and Analysis Tool (SOVAT) for performing CHA. SOVAT combines Geographic Information System (GIS) technology along with an advanced multidimensional data warehouse structure to facilitate analysis of large, disparate health, environmental, population, and spatial data. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of SOVAT for facilitating CHA among developing countries by using health, population, healthcare resources, and spatial data from Indonesia for use in two CHA cases studies. Bureau of Statistics administered data sets from the Indonesian Census, and the Indonesian village statistics, were used in the case studies. The data consisted of: healthcare resources (number of healthcare professionals and facilities), population (census), morbidity and mortality, and spatial (GIS-formatted) information. The data was formatted, combined, and populated into SOVAT for CHA use. Case study 1 involves the distribution of healthcare professionals in Indonesia, while case study 2 involves malaria mortality. Screen shots are shown for both cases. The results for the CHA were retrieved in seconds and presented through the geospatial and numerical SOVAT interface. The case studies show the potential of spatial and multidimensional analysis using
Identifying clusters of active transportation using spatial scan statistics.
Huang, Lan; Stinchcomb, David G; Pickle, Linda W; Dill, Jennifer; Berrigan, David
2009-08-01
There is an intense interest in the possibility that neighborhood characteristics influence active transportation such as walking or biking. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how a spatial cluster identification method can evaluate the geographic variation of active transportation and identify neighborhoods with unusually high/low levels of active transportation. Self-reported walking/biking prevalence, demographic characteristics, street connectivity variables, and neighborhood socioeconomic data were collected from respondents to the 2001 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS; N=10,688) in Los Angeles County (LAC) and San Diego County (SDC). Spatial scan statistics were used to identify clusters of high or low prevalence (with and without age-adjustment) and the quantity of time spent walking and biking. The data, a subset from the 2001 CHIS, were analyzed in 2007-2008. Geographic clusters of significantly high or low prevalence of walking and biking were detected in LAC and SDC. Structural variables such as street connectivity and shorter block lengths are consistently associated with higher levels of active transportation, but associations between active transportation and socioeconomic variables at the individual and neighborhood levels are mixed. Only one cluster with less time spent walking and biking among walkers/bikers was detected in LAC, and this was of borderline significance. Age-adjustment affects the clustering pattern of walking/biking prevalence in LAC, but not in SDC. The use of spatial scan statistics to identify significant clustering of health behaviors such as active transportation adds to the more traditional regression analysis that examines associations between behavior and environmental factors by identifying specific geographic areas with unusual levels of the behavior independent of predefined administrative units.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farid Rifaie
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Snakebite envenomation in Indonesia is a health burden that receives no attention from stakeholders. The high mortality and morbidity rate caused by snakebite in Indonesia is estimated from regional reports. The true burden of this issue in Indonesia needs to be revealed even starting from a small part of the country. Medical records from a Hospital in Bondowoso Regency were the data source of the snakebite cases. Three spatial statistical summaries were applied to analyze the spatial pattern of snakebite incidents. The comparison between statistical functions and the theoretical model of random distributions shows a significant clustering pattern of the events. The pattern indicates that five subdistricts in Bondowoso have a substantial number of snakebite cases more than other regions. This finding shows the potential application of spatial statistics for the snakebite combating strategy in this area by identifying the priority locations of the snakebite cases.
Tucker Tensor analysis of Matern functions in spatial statistics
Litvinenko, Alexander
2018-03-09
In this work, we describe advanced numerical tools for working with multivariate functions and for the analysis of large data sets. These tools will drastically reduce the required computing time and the storage cost, and, therefore, will allow us to consider much larger data sets or finer meshes. Covariance matrices are crucial in spatio-temporal statistical tasks, but are often very expensive to compute and store, especially in 3D. Therefore, we approximate covariance functions by cheap surrogates in a low-rank tensor format. We apply the Tucker and canonical tensor decompositions to a family of Matern- and Slater-type functions with varying parameters and demonstrate numerically that their approximations exhibit exponentially fast convergence. We prove the exponential convergence of the Tucker and canonical approximations in tensor rank parameters. Several statistical operations are performed in this low-rank tensor format, including evaluating the conditional covariance matrix, spatially averaged estimation variance, computing a quadratic form, determinant, trace, loglikelihood, inverse, and Cholesky decomposition of a large covariance matrix. Low-rank tensor approximations reduce the computing and storage costs essentially. For example, the storage cost is reduced from an exponential O(n^d) to a linear scaling O(drn), where d is the spatial dimension, n is the number of mesh points in one direction, and r is the tensor rank. Prerequisites for applicability of the proposed techniques are the assumptions that the data, locations, and measurements lie on a tensor (axes-parallel) grid and that the covariance function depends on a distance, ||x-y||.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Robert Pincus
2011-05-17
This project focused on the variability of clouds that is present across a wide range of scales ranging from the synoptic to the millimeter. In particular, there is substantial variability in cloud properties at scales smaller than the grid spacing of models used to make climate projections (GCMs) and weather forecasts. These models represent clouds and other small-scale processes with parameterizations that describe how those processes respond to and feed back on the largescale state of the atmosphere.
A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.
Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie
2012-01-30
Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A method for statistically comparing spatial distribution maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reynolds Mary G
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ecological niche modeling is a method for estimation of species distributions based on certain ecological parameters. Thus far, empirical determination of significant differences between independently generated distribution maps for a single species (maps which are created through equivalent processes, but with different ecological input parameters, has been challenging. Results We describe a method for comparing model outcomes, which allows a statistical evaluation of whether the strength of prediction and breadth of predicted areas is measurably different between projected distributions. To create ecological niche models for statistical comparison, we utilized GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production software to generate ecological niche models of human monkeypox in Africa. We created several models, keeping constant the case location input records for each model but varying the ecological input data. In order to assess the relative importance of each ecological parameter included in the development of the individual predicted distributions, we performed pixel-to-pixel comparisons between model outcomes and calculated the mean difference in pixel scores. We used a two sample Student's t-test, (assuming as null hypothesis that both maps were identical to each other regardless of which input parameters were used to examine whether the mean difference in corresponding pixel scores from one map to another was greater than would be expected by chance alone. We also utilized weighted kappa statistics, frequency distributions, and percent difference to look at the disparities in pixel scores. Multiple independent statistical tests indicated precipitation as the single most important independent ecological parameter in the niche model for human monkeypox disease. Conclusion In addition to improving our understanding of the natural factors influencing the distribution of human monkeypox disease, such pixel-to-pixel comparison
GIGMF - A statistical model program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vladuca, G.; Deberth, C.
1978-01-01
The program GIGMF computes the differential and integrated statistical model cross sections for the reactions proceeding through a compound nuclear stage. The computational method is based on the Hauser-Feshbach-Wolfenstein theory, modified to include the modern version of Tepel et al. Although the program was written for a PDP-15 computer, with 16K high speed memory, many reaction channels can be taken into account with the following restrictions: the pro ectile spin must be less than 2, the maximum spin momenta of the compound nucleus can not be greater than 10. These restrictions are due solely to the storage allotments and may be easily relaxed. The energy of the impinging particle, the target and projectile masses, the spin and paritjes of the projectile, target, emergent and residual nuclei the maximum orbital momentum and transmission coefficients for each reaction channel are the input parameters of the program. (author)
Competition in spatial location models
Webers, H.M.
1996-01-01
Models of spatial competition are designed and analyzed to describe the fact that space, by its very nature, is a source of market power. This field of research, lying at the interface of game theory and economics, has attracted much interest because location problems are related to many aspects of
Statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of galaxies and clusters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cappi, Alberto
1993-01-01
This thesis deals with the analysis of the distribution of galaxies and clusters, describing some observational problems and statistical results. First chapter gives a theoretical introduction, aiming to describe the framework of the formation of structures, tracing the history of the Universe from the Planck time, t_p = 10"-"4"3 sec and temperature corresponding to 10"1"9 GeV, to the present epoch. The most usual statistical tools and models of the galaxy distribution, with their advantages and limitations, are described in chapter two. A study of the main observed properties of galaxy clustering, together with a detailed statistical analysis of the effects of selecting galaxies according to apparent magnitude or diameter, is reported in chapter three. Chapter four delineates some properties of groups of galaxies, explaining the reasons of discrepant results on group distributions. Chapter five is a study of the distribution of galaxy clusters, with different statistical tools, like correlations, percolation, void probability function and counts in cells; it is found the same scaling-invariant behaviour of galaxies. Chapter six describes our finding that rich galaxy clusters too belong to the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies, and gives a discussion of its possible implications. Finally chapter seven reviews the possibilities offered by multi-slit and multi-fibre spectrographs, and I present some observational work on nearby and distant galaxy clusters. In particular, I show the opportunities offered by ongoing surveys of galaxies coupled with multi-object fibre spectrographs, focusing on the ESO Key Programme A galaxy redshift survey in the south galactic pole region to which I collaborate and on MEFOS, a multi-fibre instrument with automatic positioning. Published papers related to the work described in this thesis are reported in the last appendix. (author) [fr
Integrating the statistical analysis of spatial data in ecology
A. M. Liebhold; J. Gurevitch
2002-01-01
In many areas of ecology there is an increasing emphasis on spatial relationships. Often ecologists are interested in new ways of analyzing data with the objective of quantifying spatial patterns, and in designing surveys and experiments in light of the recognition that there may be underlying spatial pattern in biotic responses. In doing so, ecologists have adopted a...
Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization
Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.
2013-01-01
Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.
Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market
Bury, Thomas
2013-03-01
Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.
Statistical modeling of Earth's plasmasphere
Veibell, Victoir
The behavior of plasma near Earth's geosynchronous orbit is of vital importance to both satellite operators and magnetosphere modelers because it also has a significant influence on energy transport, ion composition, and induced currents. The system is highly complex in both time and space, making the forecasting of extreme space weather events difficult. This dissertation examines the behavior and statistical properties of plasma mass density near geosynchronous orbit by using both linear and nonlinear models, as well as epoch analyses, in an attempt to better understand the physical processes that precipitates and drives its variations. It is shown that while equatorial mass density does vary significantly on an hourly timescale when a drop in the disturbance time scale index ( Dst) was observed, it does not vary significantly between the day of a Dst event onset and the day immediately following. It is also shown that increases in equatorial mass density were not, on average, preceded or followed by any significant change in the examined solar wind or geomagnetic variables, including Dst, despite prior results that considered a few selected events and found a notable influence. It is verified that equatorial mass density and and solar activity via the F10.7 index have a strong correlation, which is stronger over longer timescales such as 27 days than it is over an hourly timescale. It is then shown that this connection seems to affect the behavior of equatorial mass density most during periods of strong solar activity leading to large mass density reactions to Dst drops for high values of F10.7. It is also shown that equatorial mass density behaves differently before and after events based on the value of F10.7 at the onset of an equatorial mass density event or a Dst event, and that a southward interplanetary magnetic field at onset leads to slowed mass density growth after event onset. These behavioral differences provide insight into how solar and geomagnetic
de Groot, Marius; Vernooij, Meike W.; Klein, Stefan; Ikram, M. Arfan; Vos, Frans M.; Smith, Stephen M.; Niessen, Wiro J.; Andersson, Jesper L. R.
2013-01-01
Anatomical alignment in neuroimaging studies is of such importance that considerable effort is put into improving the registration used to establish spatial correspondence. Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) is a popular method for comparing diffusion characteristics across subjects. TBSS
De Groot, M.; Vernooij, M.W.; Klein, S.; Arfan Ikram, M.; Vos, F.M.; Smith, S.M.; Niessen, W.J.; Andersson, J.L.R.
2013-01-01
Anatomical alignment in neuroimaging studies is of such importance that considerable effort is put into improving the registration used to establish spatial correspondence. Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) is a popular method for comparing diffusion characteristics across subjects. TBSS
Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben S.
2016-01-01
The objective in this article is twofold. On one hand, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) framework for improved wind speed forecast accuracy is described and evaluated. On the other hand, the approach explored identifies unintuitive explanatory value from a diagnostic variable in an operational....... Based on the statistical model candidates inferred from the data, the lifted index NWP model diagnostic is consistently found among the NWP model predictors of the best performing statistical models across sites....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Belianinov, Alex; Ganesh, Panchapakesan; Lin, Wenzhi; Jesse, Stephen; Pan, Minghu; Kalinin, Sergei V.; Sales, Brian C.; Sefat, Athena S.
2014-01-01
Atomic level spatial variability of electronic structure in Fe-based superconductor FeTe 0.55 Se 0.45 (T c = 15 K) is explored using current-imaging tunneling-spectroscopy. Multivariate statistical analysis of the data differentiates regions of dissimilar electronic behavior that can be identified with the segregation of chalcogen atoms, as well as boundaries between terminations and near neighbor interactions. Subsequent clustering analysis allows identification of the spatial localization of these dissimilar regions. Similar statistical analysis of modeled calculated density of states of chemically inhomogeneous FeTe 1−x Se x structures further confirms that the two types of chalcogens, i.e., Te and Se, can be identified by their electronic signature and differentiated by their local chemical environment. This approach allows detailed chemical discrimination of the scanning tunneling microscopy data including separation of atomic identities, proximity, and local configuration effects and can be universally applicable to chemically and electronically inhomogeneous surfaces
Spatial statistics detect clustering patterns of kidney diseases in south-eastern Romania
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ruben I.
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Medical geography was conceptualized almost ten years ago due to its obvious usefulness in epidemiological research. Still, numerous diseases in many regions were neglected in these aspects of research, and the prevalence of kidney diseases in Eastern Europe is such an example. We evaluated the spatial patterns of main kidney diseases in south-eastern Romania, and highlighted the importance of spatial modeling in medical management in Romania. We found two statistically significant hotspots of kidney diseases prevalence. We also found differences in the spatial patterns between categories of diseases. We propose to speed up the process of creating a national database of records on kidney diseases. Offering the researchers access to a national database will allow further epidemiology studies in Romania and finally lead to a better management of medical services.
Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.
Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J
2010-12-01
Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies
Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Bo
2016-10-01
Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.
Optimizing the maximum reported cluster size in the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data.
Kim, Sehwi; Jung, Inkyung
2017-01-01
The spatial scan statistic is an important tool for spatial cluster detection. There have been numerous studies on scanning window shapes. However, little research has been done on the maximum scanning window size or maximum reported cluster size. Recently, Han et al. proposed to use the Gini coefficient to optimize the maximum reported cluster size. However, the method has been developed and evaluated only for the Poisson model. We adopt the Gini coefficient to be applicable to the spatial scan statistic for ordinal data to determine the optimal maximum reported cluster size. Through a simulation study and application to a real data example, we evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. With some sophisticated modification, the Gini coefficient can be effectively employed for the ordinal model. The Gini coefficient most often picked the optimal maximum reported cluster sizes that were the same as or smaller than the true cluster sizes with very high accuracy. It seems that we can obtain a more refined collection of clusters by using the Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient developed specifically for the ordinal model can be useful for optimizing the maximum reported cluster size for ordinal data and helpful for properly and informatively discovering cluster patterns.
An improved Fuzzy Kappa statistic that accounts for spatial autocorrelation
Hagen - Zanker, A.H.
2009-01-01
The Fuzzy Kappa statistic expresses the agreement between two categorical raster maps. The statistic goes beyond cell-by-cell comparison and gives partial credit to cells based on the categories found in the neighborhood. When matching categories are found at shorter distances the agreement is
Multivariate Non-Symmetric Stochastic Models for Spatial Dependence Models
Haslauer, C. P.; Bárdossy, A.
2017-12-01
A copula based multivariate framework allows more flexibility to describe different kind of dependences than what is possible using models relying on the confining assumption of symmetric Gaussian models: different quantiles can be modelled with a different degree of dependence; it will be demonstrated how this can be expected given process understanding. maximum likelihood based multivariate quantitative parameter estimation yields stable and reliable results; not only improved results in cross-validation based measures of uncertainty are obtained but also a more realistic spatial structure of uncertainty compared to second order models of dependence; as much information as is available is included in the parameter estimation: incorporation of censored measurements (e.g., below detection limit, or ones that are above the sensitive range of the measurement device) yield to more realistic spatial models; the proportion of true zeros can be jointly estimated with and distinguished from censored measurements which allow estimates about the age of a contaminant in the system; secondary information (categorical and on the rational scale) has been used to improve the estimation of the primary variable; These copula based multivariate statistical techniques are demonstrated based on hydraulic conductivity observations at the Borden (Canada) site, the MADE site (USA), and a large regional groundwater quality data-set in south-west Germany. Fields of spatially distributed K were simulated with identical marginal simulation, identical second order spatial moments, yet substantially differing solute transport characteristics when numerical tracer tests were performed. A statistical methodology is shown that allows the delineation of a boundary layer separating homogenous parts of a spatial data-set. The effects of this boundary layer (macro structure) and the spatial dependence of K (micro structure) on solute transport behaviour is shown.
Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution
Kalenderski, Stoitchko
2011-03-17
We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..
Fiedukowicz, Anna; Gasiorowski, Jedrzej; Kowalski, Paweł; Olszewski, Robert; Pillich-Kolipinska, Agata
2012-11-01
The wide access to source data, published by numerous websites, results in situation, when information acquisition is not a problem any more. The real problem is how to transform information in the useful knowledge. Cartographic method of research, dealing with spatial data, has been serving this purpose for many years. Nowadays, it allows conducting analyses at the high complexity level, thanks to the intense development in IT technologies, The vast majority of analytic methods utilizing the so-called data mining and data enrichment techniques, however, concerns non-spatial data. According to the Authors, utilizing those techniques in spatial data analysis (including analysis based on statistical data with spatial reference), would allow the evolution of the Spatial Information Infrastructure (SII) into the Spatial Knowledge Infrastructure (SKI). The SKI development would benefit from the existence of statistical geoportal. Its proposed functionality, consisting of data analysis as well as visualization, is outlined in the article. The examples of geostatistical analyses (ANOVA and the regression model considering the spatial neighborhood), possible to implement in such portal and allowing to produce the “cartographic added value”, are also presented here. Szeroki dostep do danych zródłowych publikowanych w licznych serwisach internetowych sprawia, iz współczesnie problemem jest nie pozyskanie informacji, lecz umiejetne przekształcenie jej w uzyteczna wiedze. Kartograficzna metoda badan, która od wielu lat słuzy temu celowi w odniesieniu do danych przestrzennych, zyskuje dzis nowe oblicze - pozwala na wykonywanie złozonych analiz dzieki wykorzystaniu intensywnego rozwoju technologii informatycznych. Znaczaca wiekszosc zastosowan metod analitycznych tzw. eksploracyjnej analizy danych (data mining) i ich "wzbogacania” (data enrichment) dotyczy jednakze danych nieprzestrzennych. Wykorzystanie tych metod do analizy danych o charakterze przestrzennym, w
Spatial and Statistical Analysis of Leptospirosis in Guilan Province, Iran
Nia, A. Mohammadi; Alimohammadi, A.; Habibi, R.; Shirzadi, M. R.
2015-12-01
The most underdiagnosed water-borne bacterial zoonosis in the world is Leptospirosis which especially impacts tropical and humid regions. According to World Health Organization (WHO), the number of human cases is not known precisely. Available reports showed that worldwide incidences vary from 0.1-1 per 100 000 per year in temperate climates to 10-100 per 100 000 in the humid tropics. Pathogenic bacteria that is spread by the urines of rats is the main reason of water and soil infections. Rice field farmers who are in contact with infected water or soil, contain the most burden of leptospirosis prevalence. In recent years, this zoonotic disease have been occurred in north of Iran endemically. Guilan as the second rice production province (average=750 000 000 Kg, 40% of country production) after Mazandaran, has one of the most rural population (Male=487 679, Female=496 022) and rice workers (47 621 insured workers) among Iran provinces. The main objectives of this study were to analyse yearly spatial distribution and the possible spatial clusters of leptospirosis to better understand epidemiological aspects of them in the province. Survey was performed during the period of 2009-2013 at rural district level throughout the study area. Global clustering methods including the average nearest neighbour distance, Moran's I and General G indices were utilized to investigate the annual spatial distribution of diseases. At the end, significant spatial clusters have been detected with the objective of informing priority areas for public health planning and resource allocation.
Statistical modelling of fish stocks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kvist, Trine
1999-01-01
for modelling the dynamics of a fish population is suggested. A new approach is introduced to analyse the sources of variation in age composition data, which is one of the most important sources of information in the cohort based models for estimation of stock abundancies and mortalities. The approach combines...... and it is argued that an approach utilising stochastic differential equations might be advantagous in fish stoch assessments....
Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values
Sang, Huiyan; Gelfand, Alan E.
2010-01-01
process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters
Meteor localization via statistical analysis of spatially temporal fluctuations in image sequences
Kukal, Jaromír.; Klimt, Martin; Šihlík, Jan; Fliegel, Karel
2015-09-01
Meteor detection is one of the most important procedures in astronomical imaging. Meteor path in Earth's atmosphere is traditionally reconstructed from double station video observation system generating 2D image sequences. However, the atmospheric turbulence and other factors cause spatially-temporal fluctuations of image background, which makes the localization of meteor path more difficult. Our approach is based on nonlinear preprocessing of image intensity using Box-Cox and logarithmic transform as its particular case. The transformed image sequences are then differentiated along discrete coordinates to obtain statistical description of sky background fluctuations, which can be modeled by multivariate normal distribution. After verification and hypothesis testing, we use the statistical model for outlier detection. Meanwhile the isolated outlier points are ignored, the compact cluster of outliers indicates the presence of meteoroids after ignition.
Statistical lung model for microdosimetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fisher, D.R.; Hadley, R.T.
1984-03-01
To calculate the microdosimetry of plutonium in the lung, a mathematical description is needed of lung tissue microstructure that defines source-site parameters. Beagle lungs were expanded using a glutaraldehyde fixative at 30 cm water pressure. Tissue specimens, five microns thick, were stained with hematoxylin and eosin then studied using an image analyzer. Measurements were made along horizontal lines through the magnified tissue image. The distribution of air space and tissue chord lengths and locations of epithelial cell nuclei were recorded from about 10,000 line scans. The distribution parameters constituted a model of lung microstructure for predicting the paths of random alpha particle tracks in the lung and the probability of traversing biologically sensitive sites. This lung model may be used in conjunction with established deposition and retention models for determining the microdosimetry in the pulmonary lung for a wide variety of inhaled radioactive materials
Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Jóan Petur; Jacobsen, Daniel J.; Winther, Ole
2012-01-01
This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks...
Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models
Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.
2007-01-01
Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics
A flexible spatial scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio for detecting disease clusters.
Tango, Toshiro; Takahashi, Kunihiko
2012-12-30
Spatial scan statistics are widely used tools for detection of disease clusters. Especially, the circular spatial scan statistic proposed by Kulldorff (1997) has been utilized in a wide variety of epidemiological studies and disease surveillance. However, as it cannot detect noncircular, irregularly shaped clusters, many authors have proposed different spatial scan statistics, including the elliptic version of Kulldorff's scan statistic. The flexible spatial scan statistic proposed by Tango and Takahashi (2005) has also been used for detecting irregularly shaped clusters. However, this method sets a feasible limitation of a maximum of 30 nearest neighbors for searching candidate clusters because of heavy computational load. In this paper, we show a flexible spatial scan statistic implemented with a restricted likelihood ratio proposed by Tango (2008) to (1) eliminate the limitation of 30 nearest neighbors and (2) to have surprisingly much less computational time than the original flexible spatial scan statistic. As a side effect, it is shown to be able to detect clusters with any shape reasonably well as the relative risk of the cluster becomes large via Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the proposed spatial scan statistic with data on mortality from cerebrovascular disease in the Tokyo Metropolitan area, Japan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Variability aware compact model characterization for statistical circuit design optimization
Qiao, Ying; Qian, Kun; Spanos, Costas J.
2012-03-01
Variability modeling at the compact transistor model level can enable statistically optimized designs in view of limitations imposed by the fabrication technology. In this work we propose an efficient variabilityaware compact model characterization methodology based on the linear propagation of variance. Hierarchical spatial variability patterns of selected compact model parameters are directly calculated from transistor array test structures. This methodology has been implemented and tested using transistor I-V measurements and the EKV-EPFL compact model. Calculation results compare well to full-wafer direct model parameter extractions. Further studies are done on the proper selection of both compact model parameters and electrical measurement metrics used in the method.
Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data
Lawless, Jerald F
2011-01-01
Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,
Statistics and the shell model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weidenmueller, H.A.
1985-01-01
Starting with N. Bohr's paper on compound-nucleus reactions, we confront regular dynamical features and chaotic motion in nuclei. The shell-model and, more generally, mean-field theories describe average nuclear properties which are thus identified as regular features. The fluctuations about the average show chaotic behaviour of the same type as found in classical chaotic systems upon quantisation. These features are therefore generic and quite independent of the specific dynamics of the nucleus. A novel method to calculate fluctuations is discussed, and the results of this method are described. (orig.)
Ma, Yue; Yin, Fei; Zhang, Tao; Zhou, Xiaohua Andrew; Li, Xiaosong
2016-01-01
Spatial scan statistics are widely used in various fields. The performance of these statistics is influenced by parameters, such as maximum spatial cluster size, and can be improved by parameter selection using performance measures. Current performance measures are based on the presence of clusters and are thus inapplicable to data sets without known clusters. In this work, we propose a novel overall performance measure called maximum clustering set-proportion (MCS-P), which is based on the likelihood of the union of detected clusters and the applied dataset. MCS-P was compared with existing performance measures in a simulation study to select the maximum spatial cluster size. Results of other performance measures, such as sensitivity and misclassification, suggest that the spatial scan statistic achieves accurate results in most scenarios with the maximum spatial cluster sizes selected using MCS-P. Given that previously known clusters are not required in the proposed strategy, selection of the optimal maximum cluster size with MCS-P can improve the performance of the scan statistic in applications without identified clusters.
Spatio-temporal statistical models with applications to atmospheric processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wikle, C.K.
1996-01-01
This doctoral dissertation is presented as three self-contained papers. An introductory chapter considers traditional spatio-temporal statistical methods used in the atmospheric sciences from a statistical perspective. Although this section is primarily a review, many of the statistical issues considered have not been considered in the context of these methods and several open questions are posed. The first paper attempts to determine a means of characterizing the semiannual oscillation (SAO) spatial variation in the northern hemisphere extratropical height field. It was discovered that the midlatitude SAO in 500hPa geopotential height could be explained almost entirely as a result of spatial and temporal asymmetries in the annual variation of stationary eddies. It was concluded that the mechanism for the SAO in the northern hemisphere is a result of land-sea contrasts. The second paper examines the seasonal variability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGW) in lower stratospheric over the equatorial Pacific. Advanced cyclostationary time series techniques were used for analysis. It was found that there are significant twice-yearly peaks in MRGW activity. Analyses also suggested a convergence of horizontal momentum flux associated with these waves. In the third paper, a new spatio-temporal statistical model is proposed that attempts to consider the influence of both temporal and spatial variability. This method is mainly concerned with prediction in space and time, and provides a spatially descriptive and temporally dynamic model
Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes
Vettori, Sabrina
2017-12-07
The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical
Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Spatial statistical analysis of basal stem root disease under natural field epidemic of oil palm
Kamu, Assis; Phin, Chong Khim; Seman, Idris Abu; Wan, Hoong Hak; Mun, Ho Chong
2015-02-01
Oil palm or scientifically known as Elaeis guineensis Jacq. is the most important commodity crop in Malaysia and has greatly contributed to the economy growth of the country. As far as disease is concerned in the industry, Basal Stem Rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninence remains the most important disease. BSR disease is the most widely studied with information available for oil palm disease in Malaysia. However, there is still limited study on the spatial as well as temporal pattern or distribution of the disease especially under natural field epidemic condition in oil palm plantation. The objective of this study is to spatially identify the pattern of BSR disease under natural field epidemic using two geospatial analytical techniques, which are quadrat analysis for the first order properties of partial pattern analysis and nearest-neighbor analysis (NNA) for the second order properties of partial pattern analysis. Two study sites were selected with different age of tree. Both sites are located in Tawau, Sabah and managed by the same company. The results showed that at least one of the point pattern analysis used which is NNA (i.e. the second order properties of partial pattern analysis) has confirmed the disease is complete spatial randomness. This suggests the spread of the disease is not from tree to tree and the age of palm does not play a significance role in determining the spatial pattern of the disease. From the spatial pattern of the disease, it would help in the disease management program and for the industry in the future. The statistical modelling is expected to help in identifying the right model to estimate the yield loss of oil palm due to BSR disease in the future.
Statistical Model-Based Face Pose Estimation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
GE Xinliang; YANG Jie; LI Feng; WANG Huahua
2007-01-01
A robust face pose estimation approach is proposed by using face shape statistical model approach and pose parameters are represented by trigonometric functions. The face shape statistical model is firstly built by analyzing the face shapes from different people under varying poses. The shape alignment is vital in the process of building the statistical model. Then, six trigonometric functions are employed to represent the face pose parameters. Lastly, the mapping function is constructed between face image and face pose by linearly relating different parameters. The proposed approach is able to estimate different face poses using a few face training samples. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate its efficiency and accuracy.
Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics
Briggs, William
2016-01-01
This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...
Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacobson, J.J.
1992-01-01
The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability
SU-F-I-10: Spatially Local Statistics for Adaptive Image Filtering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iliopoulos, AS; Sun, X; Floros, D; Zhang, Y; Yin, FF; Ren, L; Pitsianis, N
2016-01-01
Purpose: To facilitate adaptive image filtering operations, addressing spatial variations in both noise and signal. Such issues are prevalent in cone-beam projections, where physical effects such as X-ray scattering result in spatially variant noise, violating common assumptions of homogeneous noise and challenging conventional filtering approaches to signal extraction and noise suppression. Methods: We present a computational mechanism for probing into and quantifying the spatial variance of noise throughout an image. The mechanism builds a pyramid of local statistics at multiple spatial scales; local statistical information at each scale includes (weighted) mean, median, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, as well as histogram or dynamic range after local mean/median shifting. Based on inter-scale differences of local statistics, the spatial scope of distinguishable noise variation is detected in a semi- or un-supervised manner. Additionally, we propose and demonstrate the incorporation of such information in globally parametrized (i.e., non-adaptive) filters, effectively transforming the latter into spatially adaptive filters. The multi-scale mechanism is materialized by efficient algorithms and implemented in parallel CPU/GPU architectures. Results: We demonstrate the impact of local statistics for adaptive image processing and analysis using cone-beam projections of a Catphan phantom, fitted within an annulus to increase X-ray scattering. The effective spatial scope of local statistics calculations is shown to vary throughout the image domain, necessitating multi-scale noise and signal structure analysis. Filtering results with and without spatial filter adaptation are compared visually, illustrating improvements in imaging signal extraction and noise suppression, and in preserving information in low-contrast regions. Conclusion: Local image statistics can be incorporated in filtering operations to equip them with spatial adaptivity to spatial
SU-F-I-10: Spatially Local Statistics for Adaptive Image Filtering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iliopoulos, AS; Sun, X [Duke University, Durham, NC (United States); Floros, D [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece); Zhang, Y; Yin, FF; Ren, L [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Pitsianis, N [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (Greece); Duke University, Durham, NC (United States)
2016-06-15
Purpose: To facilitate adaptive image filtering operations, addressing spatial variations in both noise and signal. Such issues are prevalent in cone-beam projections, where physical effects such as X-ray scattering result in spatially variant noise, violating common assumptions of homogeneous noise and challenging conventional filtering approaches to signal extraction and noise suppression. Methods: We present a computational mechanism for probing into and quantifying the spatial variance of noise throughout an image. The mechanism builds a pyramid of local statistics at multiple spatial scales; local statistical information at each scale includes (weighted) mean, median, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, as well as histogram or dynamic range after local mean/median shifting. Based on inter-scale differences of local statistics, the spatial scope of distinguishable noise variation is detected in a semi- or un-supervised manner. Additionally, we propose and demonstrate the incorporation of such information in globally parametrized (i.e., non-adaptive) filters, effectively transforming the latter into spatially adaptive filters. The multi-scale mechanism is materialized by efficient algorithms and implemented in parallel CPU/GPU architectures. Results: We demonstrate the impact of local statistics for adaptive image processing and analysis using cone-beam projections of a Catphan phantom, fitted within an annulus to increase X-ray scattering. The effective spatial scope of local statistics calculations is shown to vary throughout the image domain, necessitating multi-scale noise and signal structure analysis. Filtering results with and without spatial filter adaptation are compared visually, illustrating improvements in imaging signal extraction and noise suppression, and in preserving information in low-contrast regions. Conclusion: Local image statistics can be incorporated in filtering operations to equip them with spatial adaptivity to spatial
High-Throughput Nanoindentation for Statistical and Spatial Property Determination
Hintsala, Eric D.; Hangen, Ude; Stauffer, Douglas D.
2018-04-01
Standard nanoindentation tests are "high throughput" compared to nearly all other mechanical tests, such as tension or compression. However, the typical rates of tens of tests per hour can be significantly improved. These higher testing rates enable otherwise impractical studies requiring several thousands of indents, such as high-resolution property mapping and detailed statistical studies. However, care must be taken to avoid systematic errors in the measurement, including choosing of the indentation depth/spacing to avoid overlap of plastic zones, pileup, and influence of neighboring microstructural features in the material being tested. Furthermore, since fast loading rates are required, the strain rate sensitivity must also be considered. A review of these effects is given, with the emphasis placed on making complimentary standard nanoindentation measurements to address these issues. Experimental applications of the technique, including mapping of welds, microstructures, and composites with varying length scales, along with studying the effect of surface roughness on nominally homogeneous specimens, will be presented.
A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics
Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James
2013-04-01
Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.
Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pascucci, Valerio (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Mascarenhas, Ajith Arthur; Rusek, Korben (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Bennett, Janine Camille; Levine, Joshua (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Gyulassy, Attila (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Thompson, David C.; Rojas, Joseph Maurice (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX)
2011-07-01
This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.
Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.
Varin, Cristiano; Cattelan, Manuela; Firth, David
2016-01-01
Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UK's research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation 'export scores' within the discipline of statistics.
Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel
2003-01-01
An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...
Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria
2011-01-01
We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...
Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values
Sang, Huiyan
2010-01-28
We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.
Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models
Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH
2011-01-01
In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and
Statistical physics of pairwise probability models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John
2009-01-01
(dansk abstrakt findes ikke) Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data......: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying...
Spatial data quality and coastal spill modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Y.; Brimicombe, A.J.; Ralphs, M.P.
1998-01-01
Issues of spatial data quality are central to the whole oil spill modelling process. Both model and data quality performance issues should be considered as indispensable parts of a complete oil spill model specification and testing procedure. This paper presents initial results of research that will emphasise to modeler and manager alike the practical issues of spatial data quality for coastal oil spill modelling. It is centred around a case study of Jiao Zhou Bay in the People's Republic of China. The implications for coastal oil spill modelling are discussed and some strategies for managing the effects of spatial data quality in the outputs of oil spill modelling are explored. (author)
Making Spatial Statistics Service Accessible On Cloud Platform
Mu, X.; Wu, J.; Li, T; Zhong, Y.; Gao, X.
2014-01-01
Web service can bring together applications running on diverse platforms, users can access and share various data, information and models more effectively and conveniently from certain web service platform. Cloud computing emerges as a paradigm of Internet computing in which dynamical, scalable and often virtualized resources are provided as services. With the rampant growth of massive data and restriction of net, traditional web services platforms have some prominent problems existi...
Cold dark matter. 2: Spatial and velocity statistics
Gelb, James M.; Bertschinger, Edmund
1994-01-01
We examine high-resolution gravitational N-body simulations of the omega = 1 cold dark matter (CDM) model in order to determine whether there is any normalization of the initial density fluctuation spectrum that yields acceptable results for galaxy clustering and velocities. Dense dark matter halos in the evolved mass distribution are identified with luminous galaxies; the most massive halos are also considered as sites for galaxy groups, with a range of possibilities explored for the group mass-to-light ratios. We verify the earlier conclusions of White et al. (1987) for the low-amplitude (high-bias) CDM model-the galaxy correlation function is marginally acceptable but that there are too many galaxies. We also show that the peak biasing method does not accurately reproduce the results obtained using dense halos identified in the simulations themselves. The Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) anisotropy implies a higher normalization, resulting in problems with excessive pairwise galaxy velocity dispersion unless a strong velocity bias is present. Although we confirm the strong velocity bias of halos reported by Couchman & Carlberg (1992), we show that the galaxy motions are still too large on small scales. We find no amplitude for which the CDM model can reconcile simultaneously and galaxy correlation function, the low pairwise velocity dispersion, and the richness distribution of groups and clusters. With the normalization implied by COBE, the CDM spectrum has too much power on small scales if omega = 1.
Erdogan, Saffet
2009-10-01
The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey. Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of Paccidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as Paccidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R(2) values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R(2) for death and accident rates, compared with 0
Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling
Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José
2002-01-01
This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.
Aspects of statistical model for multifragmentation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhattacharyya, P.; Das Gupta, S.; Mekjian, A. Z.
1999-01-01
We deal with two different aspects of an exactly soluble statistical model of fragmentation. First we show, using zero range force and finite temperature Thomas-Fermi theory, that a common link can be found between finite temperature mean field theory and the statistical fragmentation model. We show the latter naturally arises in the spinodal region. Next we show that although the exact statistical model is a canonical model and uses temperature, microcanonical results which use constant energy rather than constant temperature can also be obtained from the canonical model using saddle-point approximation. The methodology is extremely simple to implement and at least in all the examples studied in this work is very accurate. (c) 1999 The American Physical Society
Statistical image processing and multidimensional modeling
Fieguth, Paul
2010-01-01
Images are all around us! The proliferation of low-cost, high-quality imaging devices has led to an explosion in acquired images. When these images are acquired from a microscope, telescope, satellite, or medical imaging device, there is a statistical image processing task: the inference of something - an artery, a road, a DNA marker, an oil spill - from imagery, possibly noisy, blurry, or incomplete. A great many textbooks have been written on image processing. However this book does not so much focus on images, per se, but rather on spatial data sets, with one or more measurements taken over
Estimating preferential flow in karstic aquifers using statistical mixed models.
Anaya, Angel A; Padilla, Ingrid; Macchiavelli, Raul; Vesper, Dorothy J; Meeker, John D; Alshawabkeh, Akram N
2014-01-01
Karst aquifers are highly productive groundwater systems often associated with conduit flow. These systems can be highly vulnerable to contamination, resulting in a high potential for contaminant exposure to humans and ecosystems. This work develops statistical models to spatially characterize flow and transport patterns in karstified limestone and determines the effect of aquifer flow rates on these patterns. A laboratory-scale Geo-HydroBed model is used to simulate flow and transport processes in a karstic limestone unit. The model consists of stainless steel tanks containing a karstified limestone block collected from a karst aquifer formation in northern Puerto Rico. Experimental work involves making a series of flow and tracer injections, while monitoring hydraulic and tracer response spatially and temporally. Statistical mixed models (SMMs) are applied to hydraulic data to determine likely pathways of preferential flow in the limestone units. The models indicate a highly heterogeneous system with dominant, flow-dependent preferential flow regions. Results indicate that regions of preferential flow tend to expand at higher groundwater flow rates, suggesting a greater volume of the system being flushed by flowing water at higher rates. Spatial and temporal distribution of tracer concentrations indicates the presence of conduit-like and diffuse flow transport in the system, supporting the notion of both combined transport mechanisms in the limestone unit. The temporal response of tracer concentrations at different locations in the model coincide with, and confirms the preferential flow distribution generated with the SMMs used in the study. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.
Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Finn Lindgren
2015-02-01
Full Text Available The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009 is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE, Lindgren, Rue, and Lindstrm 2011, one can accommodate all kinds of geographically referenced data, including areal and geostatistical ones, as well as spatial point process data. The implementation interface covers stationary spatial mod- els, non-stationary spatial models, and also spatio-temporal models, and is applicable in epidemiology, ecology, environmental risk assessment, as well as general geostatistics.
Performance modeling, loss networks, and statistical multiplexing
Mazumdar, Ravi
2009-01-01
This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the important ideas of Palm distributions associated with traffic models and their role in performance measures. Also presented are recent ideas of large buffer, and many sources asymptotics that play an important role in understanding statistical multiplexing. I
Simple statistical model for branched aggregates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt
2015-01-01
, given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory......We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule...
Advances in statistical models for data analysis
Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio
2015-01-01
This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.
Model for neural signaling leap statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos
2011-01-01
We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5 0 C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5 0 C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.
Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narayanan, R.S.
1991-10-01
We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)
Model for neural signaling leap statistics
Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos
2011-03-01
We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.
Model for neural signaling leap statistics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos, E-mail: oria@otica.ufpb.br [Laboratorio de Fisica Atomica e Lasers Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal da ParaIba Caixa Postal 5086 58051-900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)
2011-03-01
We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5{sup 0}C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5{sup 0}C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.
Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.
1993-01-01
Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change
Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences
Elhorst, J. Paul
This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent
Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics
Pan, Jian-Xin
2002-01-01
Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.
Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
2013-10-31
Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.
Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N Thompson
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili
Crash rates analysis in China using a spatial panel model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wonmongo Lacina Soro
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The consideration of spatial externalities in traffic safety analysis is of paramount importance for the success of road safety policies. Yet, the quasi-totality of spatial dependence studies on crash rates is performed within the framework of single-equation spatial cross-sectional studies. The present study extends the spatial cross-sectional scheme to a spatial fixed-effects panel model estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The spatial units are the 31 administrative regions of mainland China over the period 2004–2013. The presence of neighborhood effects is evidenced through the Moran's I statistic. Consistent with previous studies, the analysis reveals that omitting the spatial effects in traffic safety analysis is likely to bias the estimation results. The spatial and error lags are all positive and statistically significant suggesting similarities of crash rates pattern in neighboring regions. Some other explanatory variables, such as freight traffic, the length of paved roads and the populations of age 65 and above are related to higher rates while the opposite trend is observed for the Gross Regional Product, the urban unemployment rate and passenger traffic.
Spatial modeling of households' knowledge about arsenic pollution in Bangladesh.
Sarker, M Mizanur Rahman
2012-04-01
Arsenic in drinking water is an important public health issue in Bangladesh, which is affected by households' knowledge about arsenic threats from their drinking water. In this study, spatial statistical models were used to investigate the determinants and spatial dependence of households' knowledge about arsenic risk. The binary join matrix/binary contiguity matrix and inverse distance spatial weight matrix techniques are used to capture spatial dependence in the data. This analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across divisions and regions. A positive spatial correlation was found in households' knowledge across neighboring districts at district, divisional and regional levels, but the strength of this spatial correlation varies considerably by spatial weight. Literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, arsenic status, and percentage of red mark tube well usage in districts were found to contribute positively and significantly to households' knowledge. These findings have policy implications both at regional and national levels in mitigating the present arsenic crisis and to ensure arsenic-free water in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A log-Weibull spatial scan statistic for time to event data.
Usman, Iram; Rosychuk, Rhonda J
2018-06-13
Spatial scan statistics have been used for the identification of geographic clusters of elevated numbers of cases of a condition such as disease outbreaks. These statistics accompanied by the appropriate distribution can also identify geographic areas with either longer or shorter time to events. Other authors have proposed the spatial scan statistics based on the exponential and Weibull distributions. We propose the log-Weibull as an alternative distribution for the spatial scan statistic for time to events data and compare and contrast the log-Weibull and Weibull distributions through simulation studies. The effect of type I differential censoring and power have been investigated through simulated data. Methods are also illustrated on time to specialist visit data for discharged patients presenting to emergency departments for atrial fibrillation and flutter in Alberta during 2010-2011. We found northern regions of Alberta had longer times to specialist visit than other areas. We proposed the spatial scan statistic for the log-Weibull distribution as a new approach for detecting spatial clusters for time to event data. The simulation studies suggest that the test performs well for log-Weibull data.
Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chengcheng Xu
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.
Statistical transmutation in doped quantum dimer models.
Lamas, C A; Ralko, A; Cabra, D C; Poilblanc, D; Pujol, P
2012-07-06
We prove a "statistical transmutation" symmetry of doped quantum dimer models on the square, triangular, and kagome lattices: the energy spectrum is invariant under a simultaneous change of statistics (i.e., bosonic into fermionic or vice versa) of the holes and of the signs of all the dimer resonance loops. This exact transformation enables us to define the duality equivalence between doped quantum dimer Hamiltonians and provides the analytic framework to analyze dynamical statistical transmutations. We investigate numerically the doping of the triangular quantum dimer model with special focus on the topological Z(2) dimer liquid. Doping leads to four (instead of two for the square lattice) inequivalent families of Hamiltonians. Competition between phase separation, superfluidity, supersolidity, and fermionic phases is investigated in the four families.
STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreea Feraru
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.
Li, Tianxin; Zhou, Xing Chen; Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion; Difei, An
2018-05-01
In recent years, with the significant increase in urban development, it has become necessary to optimize the current air monitoring stations to reflect the quality of air in the environment. Highlighting the spatial representation of some air monitoring stations using Beijing's regional air monitoring station data from 2012 to 2014, the monthly mean particulate matter concentration (PM10) in the region was calculated and through the IDW interpolation method and spatial grid statistical method using GIS, the spatial distribution of PM10 concentration in the whole region was deduced. The spatial distribution variation of districts in Beijing using the gridding model was performed, and through the 3-year spatial analysis, PM10 concentration data including the variation and spatial overlay (1.5 km × 1.5 km cell resolution grid), the spatial distribution result obtained showed that the total PM10 concentration frequency variation exceeded the standard. It is very important to optimize the layout of the existing air monitoring stations by combining the concentration distribution of air pollutants with the spatial region using GIS.
(ajst) statistical mechanics model for orientational
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Science and Engineering Series Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 94 - 101. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODEL FOR ORIENTATIONAL. MOTION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL RIGID ROTATOR. Malo, J.O. ... there is no translational motion and that they are well separated so .... constant and I is the moment of inertia of a linear rotator. Thus, the ...
Statistical Model Checking for Biological Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel
2014-01-01
Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a highly scalable simulation-based verification approach for testing and estimating the probability that a stochastic system satisfies a given linear temporal property. The technique has been applied to (discrete and continuous time) Markov chains, stochastic...
Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bennett, Janine Camille [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pebay, Philippe Pierre [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Rojas, Maurice [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
2014-07-01
This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.
Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature
Statistical models for optimizing mineral exploration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.
1987-01-01
The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)
A statistical model for mapping morphological shape
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Jiahan
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Living things come in all shapes and sizes, from bacteria, plants, and animals to humans. Knowledge about the genetic mechanisms for biological shape has far-reaching implications for a range spectrum of scientific disciplines including anthropology, agriculture, developmental biology, evolution and biomedicine. Results We derived a statistical model for mapping specific genes or quantitative trait loci (QTLs that control morphological shape. The model was formulated within the mixture framework, in which different types of shape are thought to result from genotypic discrepancies at a QTL. The EM algorithm was implemented to estimate QTL genotype-specific shapes based on a shape correspondence analysis. Computer simulation was used to investigate the statistical property of the model. Conclusion By identifying specific QTLs for morphological shape, the model developed will help to ask, disseminate and address many major integrative biological and genetic questions and challenges in the genetic control of biological shape and function.
Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing
Mazumdar, Ravi R
2013-01-01
This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan
Statistical models for competing risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sather, H.N.
1976-08-01
Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined
Statistical physics of pairwise probability models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasser Roudi
2009-11-01
Full Text Available Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.
Terán-Hernández, Mónica; Ramis-Prieto, Rebeca; Calderón-Hernández, Jaqueline; Garrocho-Rangel, Carlos Félix; Campos-Alanís, Juan; Ávalos-Lozano, José Antonio; Aguilar-Robledo, Miguel
2016-09-29
Worldwide, Cervical Cancer (CC) is the fourth most common type of cancer and cause of death in women. It is a significant public health problem, especially in low and middle-income/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries. In the past decade, several studies of CC have been published, that identify the main modifiable and non-modifiable CC risk factors for Mexican women. However, there are no studies that attempt to explain the residual spatial variation in CC incidence In Mexico, i.e. spatial variation that cannot be ascribed to known, spatially varying risk factors. This paper uses a spatial statistical methodology that takes into account spatial variation in socio-economic factors and accessibility to health services, whilst allowing for residual, unexplained spatial variation in risk. To describe residual spatial variations in CC risk, we used generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with both spatially structured and unstructured random effects, using a Bayesian approach to inference. The highest risk is concentrated in the southeast, where the Matlapa and Aquismón municipalities register excessive risk, with posterior probabilities greater than 0.8. The lack of coverage of Cervical Cancer-Screening Programme (CCSP) (RR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.12-1.22), Marginalisation Index (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.03-1.08), and lack of accessibility to health services (RR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.03) were significant covariates. There are substantial differences between municipalities, with high-risk areas mainly in low-resource areas lacking accessibility to health services for CC. Our results clearly indicate the presence of spatial patterns, and the relevance of the spatial analysis for public health intervention. Ignoring the spatial variability means to continue a public policy that does not tackle deficiencies in its national CCSP and to keep disadvantaging and disempowering Mexican women in regard to their health care.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lopez de la Cruz, J.; Gutierrez, M.A.
2008-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic analysis of spatial point patterns as effect of localized pitting corrosion. The Quadrat Counts method is studied with two empirical pit patterns. The results are dependent on the quadrat size and bias is introduced when empty quadrats are accounted for the analysis. The spatially inhomogeneous Poisson process is used to improve the performance of the Quadrat Counts method. The latter combines Quadrat Counts with distance-based statistics in the analysis of pit patterns. The Inter-Event and the Nearest-Neighbour statistics are here implemented in order to compare their results. Further, the treatment of patterns in irregular domains is discussed
Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics
Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.
2017-10-01
This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.
Equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice models
Lavis, David A
2015-01-01
Most interesting and difficult problems in equilibrium statistical mechanics concern models which exhibit phase transitions. For graduate students and more experienced researchers this book provides an invaluable reference source of approximate and exact solutions for a comprehensive range of such models. Part I contains background material on classical thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, together with a classification and survey of lattice models. The geometry of phase transitions is described and scaling theory is used to introduce critical exponents and scaling laws. An introduction is given to finite-size scaling, conformal invariance and Schramm—Loewner evolution. Part II contains accounts of classical mean-field methods. The parallels between Landau expansions and catastrophe theory are discussed and Ginzburg—Landau theory is introduced. The extension of mean-field theory to higher-orders is explored using the Kikuchi—Hijmans—De Boer hierarchy of approximations. In Part III the use of alge...
Statistical shape and appearance models of bones.
Sarkalkan, Nazli; Weinans, Harrie; Zadpoor, Amir A
2014-03-01
When applied to bones, statistical shape models (SSM) and statistical appearance models (SAM) respectively describe the mean shape and mean density distribution of bones within a certain population as well as the main modes of variations of shape and density distribution from their mean values. The availability of this quantitative information regarding the detailed anatomy of bones provides new opportunities for diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of skeletal diseases. The potential of SSM and SAM has been recently recognized within the bone research community. For example, these models have been applied for studying the effects of bone shape on the etiology of osteoarthritis, improving the accuracy of clinical osteoporotic fracture prediction techniques, design of orthopedic implants, and surgery planning. This paper reviews the main concepts, methods, and applications of SSM and SAM as applied to bone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations
Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry
The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.
Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rujan, P.
1987-01-01
The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Osamu Watanabe
2011-05-01
Full Text Available The human visual system can acquire the statistical structures in temporal sequences of object feature changes, such as changes in shape, color, and its combination. Here we investigate whether the statistical learning for spatial position and shape changes operates separately or not. It is known that the visual system processes these two types of information separately; the spatial information is processed in the parietal cortex, whereas object shapes and colors are detected in the temporal pathway, and, after that, we perceive bound information in the two streams. We examined whether the statistical learning operates before or after binding the shape and the spatial information by using the “re-paired triplet” paradigm proposed by Turk-Browne, Isola, Scholl, and Treat (2008. The result showed that observers acquired combined sequences of shape and position changes, but no statistical information in individual sequence was obtained. This finding suggests that the visual statistical learning works after binding the temporal sequences of shapes and spatial structures and would operate in the higher-order visual system; this is consistent with recent ERP (Abla & Okanoya, 2009 and fMRI (Turk-Browne, Scholl, Chun, & Johnson, 2009 studies.
Spatial occupancy models for large data sets
Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.
2013-01-01
Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.
Panchromatic SED modelling of spatially resolved galaxies
Smith, Daniel J. B.; Hayward, Christopher C.
2018-05-01
We test the efficacy of the energy-balance spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code MAGPHYS for recovering the spatially resolved properties of a simulated isolated disc galaxy, for which it was not designed. We perform 226 950 MAGPHYS SED fits to regions between 0.2 and 25 kpc in size across the galaxy's disc, viewed from three different sight-lines, to probe how well MAGPHYS can recover key galaxy properties based on 21 bands of UV-far-infrared model photometry. MAGPHYS yields statistically acceptable fits to >99 per cent of the pixels within the r-band effective radius and between 59 and 77 percent of pixels within 20 kpc of the nucleus. MAGPHYS is able to recover the distribution of stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), specific SFR, dust luminosity, dust mass, and V-band attenuation reasonably well, especially when the pixel size is ≳ 1 kpc, whereas non-standard outputs (stellar metallicity and mass-weighted age) are recovered less well. Accurate recovery is more challenging in the smallest sub-regions of the disc (pixel scale ≲ 1 kpc), where the energy balance criterion becomes increasingly incorrect. Estimating integrated galaxy properties by summing the recovered pixel values, the true integrated values of all parameters considered except metallicity and age are well recovered at all spatial resolutions, ranging from 0.2 kpc to integrating across the disc, albeit with some evidence for resolution-dependent biases. These results must be considered when attempting to analyse the structure of real galaxies with actual observational data, for which the `ground truth' is unknown.
Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Koch, Julian
the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...
Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre
The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....
Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs
Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.
2017-06-01
Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.
A statistical model for instable thermodynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sommer, Jens-Uwe
2003-01-01
A generic model is presented for statistical systems which display thermodynamic features in contrast to our everyday experience, such as infinite and negative heat capacities. Such system are instable in terms of classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Using our statistical model, we are able to investigate states of instable systems which are undefined in the framework of equilibrium thermodynamics. We show that a region of negative heat capacity in the adiabatic environment, leads to a first order like phase transition when the system is coupled to a heat reservoir. This phase transition takes place without a phase coexistence. Nevertheless, all intermediate states are stable due to fluctuations. When two instable system are brought in thermal contact, the temperature of the composed system is lower than the minimum temperature of the individual systems. Generally, the equilibrium states of instable system cannot be simply decomposed into equilibrium states of the individual systems. The properties of instable system depend on the environment, ensemble equivalence is broken
Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test
Zhang, L.; Mai, Paul Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar; Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.; Genton, Marc G.
2014-01-01
Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.
Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test
Zhang, L.
2014-11-10
Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.
Logarithmic transformed statistical models in calibration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zeis, C.D.
1975-01-01
A general type of statistical model used for calibration of instruments having the property that the standard deviations of the observed values increase as a function of the mean value is described. The application to the Helix Counter at the Rocky Flats Plant is primarily from a theoretical point of view. The Helix Counter measures the amount of plutonium in certain types of chemicals. The method described can be used also for other calibrations. (U.S.)
ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING
Palas Roy; Naba Kumar Mondal; Biswajit Das; Kousik Das
2013-01-01
High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India) has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Mul...
Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach
Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.
2018-01-01
Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.
Statistical inference and visualization in scale-space for spatially dependent images
Vaughan, Amy; Jun, Mikyoung; Park, Cheolwoo
2012-01-01
SiZer (SIgnificant ZERo crossing of the derivatives) is a graphical scale-space visualization tool that allows for statistical inferences. In this paper we develop a spatial SiZer for finding significant features and conducting goodness-of-fit tests
A simple statistical model for geomagnetic reversals
Constable, Catherine
1990-01-01
The diversity of paleomagnetic records of geomagnetic reversals now available indicate that the field configuration during transitions cannot be adequately described by simple zonal or standing field models. A new model described here is based on statistical properties inferred from the present field and is capable of simulating field transitions like those observed. Some insight is obtained into what one can hope to learn from paleomagnetic records. In particular, it is crucial that the effects of smoothing in the remanence acquisition process be separated from true geomagnetic field behavior. This might enable us to determine the time constants associated with the dominant field configuration during a reversal.
Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Bathymetric Data for the St. Clair River, 1971-2007
Bennion, David
2009-01-01
To address questions concerning ongoing geomorphic processes in the St. Clair River, selected bathymetric datasets spanning 36 years were analyzed. Comparisons of recent high-resolution datasets covering the upper river indicate a highly variable, active environment. Although statistical and spatial comparisons of the datasets show that some changes to the channel size and shape have taken place during the study period, uncertainty associated with various survey methods and interpolation processes limit the statistically certain results. The methods used to spatially compare the datasets are sensitive to small variations in position and depth that are within the range of uncertainty associated with the datasets. Characteristics of the data, such as the density of measured points and the range of values surveyed, can also influence the results of spatial comparison. With due consideration of these limitations, apparently active and ongoing areas of elevation change in the river are mapped and discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Woth, K. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung
2001-07-01
In this study, the sensitivity of the estimation of small-scale climate variables using the technique of statistical downscaling is investigated and one method to select the most suitable input data is presented. For the example of precipitation in southwest Europe, the input data are selected systematically by extracting those stations that show a strong statistical relation in time with North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP). From these stations the sector of North Atlantic SLP is selected that best explains the dominant spatial pattern of regional precipitation. For comparison, one alternative, slightly different geographical box is used. For both sectors a statistical model for the estimation of future rainfall in the southwest of Europe is constructed. It is shown that the method of statistical downscaling is sensitive to small changes of the input data and that the estimations of future precipitation show remarkable differences for the two different Atlantic SLP sectors considered. Possible reasons are discussed. (orig.)
Radar Derived Spatial Statistics of Summer Rain. Volume 2; Data Reduction and Analysis
Konrad, T. G.; Kropfli, R. A.
1975-01-01
Data reduction and analysis procedures are discussed along with the physical and statistical descriptors used. The statistical modeling techniques are outlined and examples of the derived statistical characterization of rain cells in terms of the several physical descriptors are presented. Recommendations concerning analyses which can be pursued using the data base collected during the experiment are included.
Modeling fixation locations using spatial point processes.
Barthelmé, Simon; Trukenbrod, Hans; Engbert, Ralf; Wichmann, Felix
2013-10-01
Whenever eye movements are measured, a central part of the analysis has to do with where subjects fixate and why they fixated where they fixated. To a first approximation, a set of fixations can be viewed as a set of points in space; this implies that fixations are spatial data and that the analysis of fixation locations can be beneficially thought of as a spatial statistics problem. We argue that thinking of fixation locations as arising from point processes is a very fruitful framework for eye-movement data, helping turn qualitative questions into quantitative ones. We provide a tutorial introduction to some of the main ideas of the field of spatial statistics, focusing especially on spatial Poisson processes. We show how point processes help relate image properties to fixation locations. In particular we show how point processes naturally express the idea that image features' predictability for fixations may vary from one image to another. We review other methods of analysis used in the literature, show how they relate to point process theory, and argue that thinking in terms of point processes substantially extends the range of analyses that can be performed and clarify their interpretation.
Statistical Modelling of the Soil Dielectric Constant
Usowicz, Boguslaw; Marczewski, Wojciech; Bogdan Usowicz, Jerzy; Lipiec, Jerzy
2010-05-01
The dielectric constant of soil is the physical property being very sensitive on water content. It funds several electrical measurement techniques for determining the water content by means of direct (TDR, FDR, and others related to effects of electrical conductance and/or capacitance) and indirect RS (Remote Sensing) methods. The work is devoted to a particular statistical manner of modelling the dielectric constant as the property accounting a wide range of specific soil composition, porosity, and mass density, within the unsaturated water content. Usually, similar models are determined for few particular soil types, and changing the soil type one needs switching the model on another type or to adjust it by parametrization of soil compounds. Therefore, it is difficult comparing and referring results between models. The presented model was developed for a generic representation of soil being a hypothetical mixture of spheres, each representing a soil fraction, in its proper phase state. The model generates a serial-parallel mesh of conductive and capacitive paths, which is analysed for a total conductive or capacitive property. The model was firstly developed to determine the thermal conductivity property, and now it is extended on the dielectric constant by analysing the capacitive mesh. The analysis is provided by statistical means obeying physical laws related to the serial-parallel branching of the representative electrical mesh. Physical relevance of the analysis is established electrically, but the definition of the electrical mesh is controlled statistically by parametrization of compound fractions, by determining the number of representative spheres per unitary volume per fraction, and by determining the number of fractions. That way the model is capable covering properties of nearly all possible soil types, all phase states within recognition of the Lorenz and Knudsen conditions. In effect the model allows on generating a hypothetical representative of
Encoding Dissimilarity Data for Statistical Model Building.
Wahba, Grace
2010-12-01
We summarize, review and comment upon three papers which discuss the use of discrete, noisy, incomplete, scattered pairwise dissimilarity data in statistical model building. Convex cone optimization codes are used to embed the objects into a Euclidean space which respects the dissimilarity information while controlling the dimension of the space. A "newbie" algorithm is provided for embedding new objects into this space. This allows the dissimilarity information to be incorporated into a Smoothing Spline ANOVA penalized likelihood model, a Support Vector Machine, or any model that will admit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space components, for nonparametric regression, supervised learning, or semi-supervised learning. Future work and open questions are discussed. The papers are: F. Lu, S. Keles, S. Wright and G. Wahba 2005. A framework for kernel regularization with application to protein clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 12332-1233.G. Corrada Bravo, G. Wahba, K. Lee, B. Klein, R. Klein and S. Iyengar 2009. Examining the relative influence of familial, genetic and environmental covariate information in flexible risk models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 8128-8133F. Lu, Y. Lin and G. Wahba. Robust manifold unfolding with kernel regularization. TR 1008, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates
Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.
1989-01-01
A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.
Spatial-temporal modeling of malware propagation in networks.
Chen, Zesheng; Ji, Chuanyi
2005-09-01
Network security is an important task of network management. One threat to network security is malware (malicious software) propagation. One type of malware is called topological scanning that spreads based on topology information. The focus of this work is on modeling the spread of topological malwares, which is important for understanding their potential damages, and for developing countermeasures to protect the network infrastructure. Our model is motivated by probabilistic graphs, which have been widely investigated in machine learning. We first use a graphical representation to abstract the propagation of malwares that employ different scanning methods. We then use a spatial-temporal random process to describe the statistical dependence of malware propagation in arbitrary topologies. As the spatial dependence is particularly difficult to characterize, the problem becomes how to use simple (i.e., biased) models to approximate the spatially dependent process. In particular, we propose the independent model and the Markov model as simple approximations. We conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations on large networks using both real measurements and synthesized topologies to test the performance of the proposed models. Our results show that the independent model can capture temporal dependence and detailed topology information and, thus, outperforms the previous models, whereas the Markov model incorporates a certain spatial dependence and, thus, achieves a greater accuracy in characterizing both transient and equilibrium behaviors of malware propagation.
A simplified spatial model for BWR stability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berman, Y.; Lederer, Y.; Meron, E.
2012-01-01
A spatial reduced order model for the study of BWR stability, based on the phenomenological model of March-Leuba et al., is presented. As one dimensional spatial dependence of the neutron flux, fuel temperature and void fraction is introduced, it is possible to describe both global and regional oscillations of the reactor power. Both linear stability analysis and numerical analysis were applied in order to describe the parameters which govern the model stability. The results were found qualitatively similar to past results. Doppler reactivity feedback was found essential for the explanation of the different regions of the flow-power stability map. (authors)
ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Palas Roy
2013-01-01
Full Text Available High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Multivariate data analysis was done with the collected groundwater samples from the 132 tubewells of this contaminated region shows that three variable parameters are significantly related with the arsenic. Based on these relationships, a multiple linear regression model has been developed that estimated the arsenic contamination by measuring such three predictor parameters of the groundwater variables in the contaminated aquifer. This model could also be a suggestive tool while designing the arsenic removal scheme for any affected groundwater.
A study on the use of Gumbel approximation with the Bernoulli spatial scan statistic.
Read, S; Bath, P A; Willett, P; Maheswaran, R
2013-08-30
The Bernoulli version of the spatial scan statistic is a well established method of detecting localised spatial clusters in binary labelled point data, a typical application being the epidemiological case-control study. A recent study suggests the inferential accuracy of several versions of the spatial scan statistic (principally the Poisson version) can be improved, at little computational cost, by using the Gumbel distribution, a method now available in SaTScan(TM) (www.satscan.org). We study in detail the effect of this technique when applied to the Bernoulli version and demonstrate that it is highly effective, albeit with some increase in false alarm rates at certain significance thresholds. We explain how this increase is due to the discrete nature of the Bernoulli spatial scan statistic and demonstrate that it can affect even small p-values. Despite this, we argue that the Gumbel method is actually preferable for very small p-values. Furthermore, we extend previous research by running benchmark trials on 12 000 synthetic datasets, thus demonstrating that the overall detection capability of the Bernoulli version (i.e. ratio of power to false alarm rate) is not noticeably affected by the use of the Gumbel method. We also provide an example application of the Gumbel method using data on hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution.
Gangnon, Ronald E
2012-03-01
The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, whereas rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.
Modulation of spatial attention by goals, statistical learning, and monetary reward.
Jiang, Yuhong V; Sha, Li Z; Remington, Roger W
2015-10-01
This study documented the relative strength of task goals, visual statistical learning, and monetary reward in guiding spatial attention. Using a difficult T-among-L search task, we cued spatial attention to one visual quadrant by (i) instructing people to prioritize it (goal-driven attention), (ii) placing the target frequently there (location probability learning), or (iii) associating that quadrant with greater monetary gain (reward-based attention). Results showed that successful goal-driven attention exerted the strongest influence on search RT. Incidental location probability learning yielded a smaller though still robust effect. Incidental reward learning produced negligible guidance for spatial attention. The 95 % confidence intervals of the three effects were largely nonoverlapping. To understand these results, we simulated the role of location repetition priming in probability cuing and reward learning. Repetition priming underestimated the strength of location probability cuing, suggesting that probability cuing involved long-term statistical learning of how to shift attention. Repetition priming provided a reasonable account for the negligible effect of reward on spatial attention. We propose a multiple-systems view of spatial attention that includes task goals, search habit, and priming as primary drivers of top-down attention.
Optimizing refiner operation with statistical modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Broderick, G [Noranda Research Centre, Pointe Claire, PQ (Canada)
1997-02-01
The impact of refining conditions on the energy efficiency of the process and on the handsheet quality of a chemi-mechanical pulp was studied as part of a series of pilot scale refining trials. Statistical models of refiner performance were constructed from these results and non-linear optimization of process conditions were conducted. Optimization results indicated that increasing the ratio of specific energy applied in the first stage led to a reduction of some 15 per cent in the total energy requirement. The strategy can also be used to obtain significant increases in pulp quality for a given energy input. 20 refs., 6 tabs.
Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Jaick, L.J.
1974-01-01
The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kostas Alexandridis
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Assessing spatial model performance often presents challenges related to the choice and suitability of traditional statistical methods in capturing the true validity and dynamics of the predicted outcomes. The stochastic nature of many of our contemporary spatial models of land use change necessitate the testing and development of new and innovative methodologies in statistical spatial assessment. In many cases, spatial model performance depends critically on the spatially-explicit prior distributions, characteristics, availability and prevalence of the variables and factors under study. This study explores the statistical spatial characteristics of statistical model assessment of modeling land use change dynamics in a seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin during the historical period of 1963–1990. The artificial neural network-based Land Transformation Model (LTM predictions are used to compare simulated with historical land use transformations in urban/suburban landscapes. We introduce a range of Bayesian information entropy statistical spatial metrics for assessing the model performance across multiple simulation testing runs. Bayesian entropic estimates of model performance are compared against information-theoretic stochastic entropy estimates and theoretically-derived accuracy assessments. We argue for the critical role of informational uncertainty across different scales of spatial resolution in informing spatial landscape model assessment. Our analysis reveals how incorporation of spatial and landscape information asymmetry estimates can improve our stochastic assessments of spatial model predictions. Finally our study shows how spatially-explicit entropic classification accuracy estimates can work closely with dynamic modeling methodologies in improving our scientific understanding of landscape change as a complex adaptive system and process.
Spatial Statistics and Spatio-Temporal Data Covariance Functions and Directional Properties
Sherman, Michael
2010-01-01
In the spatial or space-time context, specifying the correct covariance function is important to obtain efficient predictions and to understand the underlying physical process of interest. There have been several books in recent years in the general area of spatial statistics. This book focuses on covariance and variogram functions, their role in prediction, and the proper choice of these functions in data applications. Presenting recent methods from 2004-2007 alongside more established methodology of assessing the usual assumptions on such functions such as isotropy, separability and symmetry
Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Feser, F.
2005-07-01
In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter
Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.
Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat
2012-01-01
A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.
Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lenzi, Amanda
. This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...
Statistical modeling to support power system planning
Staid, Andrea
This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate
Acceleration transforms and statistical kinetic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
LuValle, M.J.; Welsher, T.L.; Svoboda, K.
1988-01-01
For a restricted class of problems a mathematical model of microscopic degradation processes, statistical kinetics, is developed and linked through acceleration transforms to the information which can be obtained from a system in which the only observable sign of degradation is sudden and catastrophic failure. The acceleration transforms were developed in accelerated life testing applications as a tool for extrapolating from the observable results of an accelerated life test to the dynamics of the underlying degradation processes. A particular concern of a physicist attempting to interpreted the results of an analysis based on acceleration transforms is determining the physical species involved in the degradation process. These species may be (a) relatively abundant or (b) relatively rare. The main results of this paper are a theorem showing that for an important subclass of statistical kinetic models, acceleration transforms cannot be used to distinguish between cases a and b, and an example showing that in some cases falling outside the restrictions of the theorem, cases a and b can be distinguished by their acceleration transforms
Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.
2003-01-01
In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs
A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.
Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj
2014-05-20
The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lovejoy, S.; Lima, M. I. P. de
2015-01-01
Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shkvarko Yuriy
2006-01-01
Full Text Available We address a new approach to solve the ill-posed nonlinear inverse problem of high-resolution numerical reconstruction of the spatial spectrum pattern (SSP of the backscattered wavefield sources distributed over the remotely sensed scene. An array or synthesized array radar (SAR that employs digital data signal processing is considered. By exploiting the idea of combining the statistical minimum risk estimation paradigm with numerical descriptive regularization techniques, we address a new fused statistical descriptive regularization (SDR strategy for enhanced radar imaging. Pursuing such an approach, we establish a family of the SDR-related SSP estimators, that encompass a manifold of existing beamforming techniques ranging from traditional matched filter to robust and adaptive spatial filtering, and minimum variance methods.
Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi
2017-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.
Modern methodology and applications in spatial-temporal modeling
Matsui, Tomoko
2015-01-01
This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized methodological and applied aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter deals with non-parametric Bayesian inference via a recently developed framework known as kernel mean embedding which has had a significant influence in machine learning disciplines. The second chapter takes up non-parametric statistical methods for spatial field reconstruction and exceedance probability estimation based on Gaussian process-based models in the context of wireless sensor network data. The third chapter presents signal-processing methods applied to acoustic mood analysis based on music signal analysis. The fourth chapter covers models that are applicable to time series modeling in the domain of speech and language processing. This includes aspects of factor analysis, independent component an...
A statistical mechanical model of economics
Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams
Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex
Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF)
Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF) was developed by Dr. Scott Havens at the USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in Boise, ID. SMRF was designed to increase the flexibility of taking measured weather data and distributing the point measurements across a watershed. SMRF was developed...
The 3-D global spatial data model foundation of the spatial data infrastructure
Burkholder, Earl F
2008-01-01
Traditional methods for handling spatial data are encumbered by the assumption of separate origins for horizontal and vertical measurements. Modern measurement systems operate in a 3-D spatial environment. The 3-D Global Spatial Data Model: Foundation of the Spatial Data Infrastructure offers a new model for handling digital spatial data, the global spatial data model or GSDM. The GSDM preserves the integrity of three-dimensional spatial data while also providing additional benefits such as simpler equations, worldwide standardization, and the ability to track spatial data accuracy with greater specificity and convenience. This groundbreaking spatial model incorporates both a functional model and a stochastic model to connect the physical world to the ECEF rectangular system. Combining horizontal and vertical data into a single, three-dimensional database, this authoritative monograph provides a logical development of theoretical concepts and practical tools that can be used to handle spatial data mo...
Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA
Blangiardo, Marta
2015-01-01
Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr
Current algebra, statistical mechanics and quantum models
Vilela Mendes, R.
2017-11-01
Results obtained in the past for free boson systems at zero and nonzero temperatures are revisited to clarify the physical meaning of current algebra reducible functionals which are associated to systems with density fluctuations, leading to observable effects on phase transitions. To use current algebra as a tool for the formulation of quantum statistical mechanics amounts to the construction of unitary representations of diffeomorphism groups. Two mathematical equivalent procedures exist for this purpose. One searches for quasi-invariant measures on configuration spaces, the other for a cyclic vector in Hilbert space. Here, one argues that the second approach is closer to the physical intuition when modelling complex systems. An example of application of the current algebra methodology to the pairing phenomenon in two-dimensional fermion systems is discussed.
Statistical model for OCT image denoising
Li, Muxingzi
2017-08-01
Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive technique with a large array of applications in clinical imaging and biological tissue visualization. However, the presence of speckle noise affects the analysis of OCT images and their diagnostic utility. In this article, we introduce a new OCT denoising algorithm. The proposed method is founded on a numerical optimization framework based on maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the noise-free OCT image. It combines a novel speckle noise model, derived from local statistics of empirical spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) data, with a Huber variant of total variation regularization for edge preservation. The proposed approach exhibits satisfying results in terms of speckle noise reduction as well as edge preservation, at reduced computational cost.
Multivariate Receptor Models for Spatially Correlated Multipollutant Data
Jun, Mikyoung
2013-08-01
The goal of multivariate receptor modeling is to estimate the profiles of major pollution sources and quantify their impacts based on ambient measurements of pollutants. Traditionally, multivariate receptor modeling has been applied to multiple air pollutant data measured at a single monitoring site or measurements of a single pollutant collected at multiple monitoring sites. Despite the growing availability of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites, there has not yet been any attempt to incorporate spatial dependence that may exist in such data into multivariate receptor modeling. We propose a spatial statistics extension of multivariate receptor models that enables us to incorporate spatial dependence into estimation of source composition profiles and contributions given the prespecified number of sources and the model identification conditions. The proposed method yields more precise estimates of source profiles by accounting for spatial dependence in the estimation. More importantly, it enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites as well as when there are missing values at monitoring sites. The method is illustrated with simulated data and real multipollutant data collected from eight monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas. Supplementary materials for this article, including data and R code for implementing the methods, are available online on the journal web site. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Ferrante, Oscar; Patacca, Alessia; Di Caro, Valeria; Della Libera, Chiara; Santandrea, Elisa; Chelazzi, Leonardo
2018-05-01
The cognitive system has the capacity to learn and make use of environmental regularities - known as statistical learning (SL), including for the implicit guidance of attention. For instance, it is known that attentional selection is biased according to the spatial probability of targets; similarly, changes in distractor filtering can be triggered by the unequal spatial distribution of distractors. Open questions remain regarding the cognitive/neuronal mechanisms underlying SL of target selection and distractor filtering. Crucially, it is unclear whether the two processes rely on shared neuronal machinery, with unavoidable cross-talk, or they are fully independent, an issue that we directly addressed here. In a series of visual search experiments, participants had to discriminate a target stimulus, while ignoring a task-irrelevant salient distractor (when present). We systematically manipulated spatial probabilities of either one or the other stimulus, or both. We then measured performance to evaluate the direct effects of the applied contingent probability distribution (e.g., effects on target selection of the spatial imbalance in target occurrence across locations) as well as its indirect or "transfer" effects (e.g., effects of the same spatial imbalance on distractor filtering across locations). By this approach, we confirmed that SL of both target and distractor location implicitly bias attention. Most importantly, we described substantial indirect effects, with the unequal spatial probability of the target affecting filtering efficiency and, vice versa, the unequal spatial probability of the distractor affecting target selection efficiency across locations. The observed cross-talk demonstrates that SL of target selection and distractor filtering are instantiated via (at least partly) shared neuronal machinery, as further corroborated by strong correlations between direct and indirect effects at the level of individual participants. Our findings are compatible
Estimating Predictive Variance for Statistical Gas Distribution Modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lilienthal, Achim J.; Asadi, Sahar; Reggente, Matteo
2009-01-01
Recent publications in statistical gas distribution modelling have proposed algorithms that model mean and variance of a distribution. This paper argues that estimating the predictive concentration variance entails not only a gradual improvement but is rather a significant step to advance the field. This is, first, since the models much better fit the particular structure of gas distributions, which exhibit strong fluctuations with considerable spatial variations as a result of the intermittent character of gas dispersal. Second, because estimating the predictive variance allows to evaluate the model quality in terms of the data likelihood. This offers a solution to the problem of ground truth evaluation, which has always been a critical issue for gas distribution modelling. It also enables solid comparisons of different modelling approaches, and provides the means to learn meta parameters of the model, to determine when the model should be updated or re-initialised, or to suggest new measurement locations based on the current model. We also point out directions of related ongoing or potential future research work.
New advances in statistical modeling and applications
Santos, Rui; Oliveira, Maria; Paulino, Carlos
2014-01-01
This volume presents selected papers from the XIXth Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society, held in the town of Nazaré, Portugal, from September 28 to October 1, 2011. All contributions were selected after a thorough peer-review process. It covers a broad range of papers in the areas of statistical science, probability and stochastic processes, extremes and statistical applications.
Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review
DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon
2017-01-01
The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.
A statistical model for predicting muscle performance
Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix
The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing
Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.
Control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling
Li, Yang
2007-01-01
Spatial discretisation plays an important role in many numerical environmental models. This paper studies the control of spatial discretisation in coastal oil spill modelling with a view to assure the quality of modelling outputs for given spatial data inputs. Spatial data analysis techniques are effective for investigating and improving the spatial discretisation in different phases of the modelling. Proposed methods are implemented and tested with experimental models. A new “Automatic Searc...
Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juul, Jeppe Søgaard
When studying the dynamics of living systems, insight can often be gained by developing a mathematical model that can predict future behaviour of the system or help classify system characteristics. However, in living cells, organisms, and especially groups of interacting individuals, a large number...... variables of the system. However, this approach disregards any spatial structure of the system, which may potentially change the behaviour drastically. An alternative approach is to construct a cellular automaton with nearest neighbour interactions, or even to model the system as a complex network...... with interactions defined by network topology. In this thesis I first describe three different biological models of ageing and cancer, in which spatial structure is important for the system dynamics. I then turn to describe characteristics of ecosystems consisting of three cyclically interacting species...
A nonlocal spatial model for Lyme disease
Yu, Xiao; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang
2016-07-01
This paper is devoted to the study of a nonlocal and time-delayed reaction-diffusion model for Lyme disease with a spatially heterogeneous structure. In the case of a bounded domain, we first prove the existence of the positive steady state and a threshold type result for the disease-free system, and then establish the global dynamics for the model system in terms of the basic reproduction number. In the case of an unbound domain, we obtain the existence of the disease spreading speed and its coincidence with the minimal wave speed. At last, we use numerical simulations to verify our analytic results and investigate the influence of model parameters and spatial heterogeneity on the disease infection risk.
Statistical Model Checking of Rich Models and Properties
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poulsen, Danny Bøgsted
in undecidability issues for the traditional model checking approaches. Statistical model checking has proven itself a valuable supplement to model checking and this thesis is concerned with extending this software validation technique to stochastic hybrid systems. The thesis consists of two parts: the first part...... motivates why existing model checking technology should be supplemented by new techniques. It also contains a brief introduction to probability theory and concepts covered by the six papers making up the second part. The first two papers are concerned with developing online monitoring techniques...... systems. The fifth paper shows how stochastic hybrid automata are useful for modelling biological systems and the final paper is concerned with showing how statistical model checking is efficiently distributed. In parallel with developing the theory contained in the papers, a substantial part of this work...
Hamzalouh, L.; Ismail, M. T.; Rahman, R. A.
2017-09-01
In this paper, spatial panel models were used and the method for selecting the best model amongst the spatial fixed effects model and the spatial random effects model to estimate the fitting model by using the robust Hausman test for analysis of the exports pattern of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African (COMESA) countries. And examine the effects of the interactions of the economic statistic of explanatory variables on the exports of the COMESA. Results indicated that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects specification should be tested and considered in most cases of this study. After that, the direct and indirect effects among COMESA regions were assessed, and the role of indirect spatial effects in estimating exports was empirically demonstrated. Regarding originality and research value, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine exports between COMESA and its member countries through spatial panel models using XSMLE, which is a new command for spatial analysis using STATA.
Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal
2015-01-01
For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...
Statistical Shape Modelling and Markov Random Field Restoration (invited tutorial and exercise)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hilger, Klaus Baggesen
This tutorial focuses on statistical shape analysis using point distribution models (PDM) which is widely used in modelling biological shape variability over a set of annotated training data. Furthermore, Active Shape Models (ASM) and Active Appearance Models (AAM) are based on PDMs and have proven...... deformation field between shapes. The tutorial demonstrates both generative active shape and appearance models, and MRF restoration on 3D polygonized surfaces. ''Exercise: Spectral-Spatial classification of multivariate images'' From annotated training data this exercise applies spatial image restoration...... using Markov random field relaxation of a spectral classifier. Keywords: the Ising model, the Potts model, stochastic sampling, discriminant analysis, expectation maximization....
Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper
2007-01-01
Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....
Developing a modelling for the spatial data infrastructure
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Hjelmager, J
2005-07-01
Full Text Available The Commission on Spatial Data Standards of the International Cartographic Association (ICA) is working on defining spatial models and technical characteristics of a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI). To date, this work has been restricted...
Chekmarev, Sergei F
2013-03-01
The transition from laminar to turbulent fluid motion occurring at large Reynolds numbers is generally associated with the instability of the laminar flow. On the other hand, since the turbulent flow characteristically appears in the form of spatially localized structures (e.g., eddies) filling the flow field, a tendency to occupy such a structured state of the flow cannot be ruled out as a driving force for turbulent transition. To examine this possibility, we propose a simple analytical model that treats the flow as a collection of localized spatial structures, each of which consists of elementary cells in which the behavior of the particles (atoms or molecules) is uncorrelated. This allows us to introduce the Reynolds number, associating it with the ratio between the total phase volume for the system and that for the elementary cell. Using the principle of maximum entropy to calculate the most probable size distribution of the localized structures, we show that as the Reynolds number increases, the elementary cells group into the localized structures, which successfully explains turbulent transition and some other general properties of turbulent flows. An important feature of the present model is that a bridge between the spatial-statistical description of the flow and hydrodynamic equations is established. We show that the basic assumptions underlying the model, i.e., that the particles are indistinguishable and elementary volumes of phase space exist in which the state of the particles is uncertain, are involved in the derivation of the Navier-Stokes equation. Taking into account that the model captures essential features of turbulent flows, this suggests that the driving force for the turbulent transition is basically the same as in the present model, i.e., the tendency of the system to occupy a statistically dominant state plays a key role. The instability of the flow at high Reynolds numbers can then be a mechanism to initiate structural rearrangement of
Modeling molecular mixing in a spatially inhomogeneous turbulent flow
Meyer, Daniel W.; Deb, Rajdeep
2012-02-01
Simulations of spatially inhomogeneous turbulent mixing in decaying grid turbulence with a joint velocity-concentration probability density function (PDF) method were conducted. The inert mixing scenario involves three streams with different compositions. The mixing model of Meyer ["A new particle interaction mixing model for turbulent dispersion and turbulent reactive flows," Phys. Fluids 22(3), 035103 (2010)], the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) model and its velocity-conditional variant, i.e., the IECM model, were applied. For reference, the direct numerical simulation data provided by Sawford and de Bruyn Kops ["Direct numerical simulation and lagrangian modeling of joint scalar statistics in ternary mixing," Phys. Fluids 20(9), 095106 (2008)] was used. It was found that velocity conditioning is essential to obtain accurate concentration PDF predictions. Moreover, the model of Meyer provides significantly better results compared to the IECM model at comparable computational expense.
Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data
Krupskii, Pavel
2016-12-19
We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.
Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data
Krupskii, Pavel; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.
2016-01-01
We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.
Modeling Spatially Unrestricted Pedestrian Traffic on Footbridges
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zivanovic, Stana; Pavic, Aleksandar; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór
2010-01-01
restricted movement of pedestrians, has kept attracting attention of researchers. However, it is the normal spatially unrestricted pedestrian traffic, and its vertical dynamic loading component, that are most relevant for vibration serviceability checks for most footbridges. Despite the existence of numerous...... design procedures concerned with this loading, the current confidence in its modelling is low due to lack of verification of the models on as-built structures. This is the motivation behind reviewing the existing design procedures for modelling normal pedestrian traffic in this paper and evaluating...
Network Data: Statistical Theory and New Models
2016-02-17
and with environmental scientists at JPL and Emory University to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution ...Beijing, May, 2013 Beijing Statistics Forum, Beijing, May, 2013 Statistics Seminar, CREST-ENSAE, Paris , March, 2013 Statistics Seminar, University...to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution monitoring and management. Satellite- retrieved Aerosol Optical
Measuring streetscape complexity based on the statistics of local contrast and spatial frequency.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
André Cavalcante
Full Text Available Streetscapes are basic urban elements which play a major role in the livability of a city. The visual complexity of streetscapes is known to influence how people behave in such built spaces. However, how and which characteristics of a visual scene influence our perception of complexity have yet to be fully understood. This study proposes a method to evaluate the complexity perceived in streetscapes based on the statistics of local contrast and spatial frequency. Here, 74 streetscape images from four cities, including daytime and nighttime scenes, were ranked for complexity by 40 participants. Image processing was then used to locally segment contrast and spatial frequency in the streetscapes. The statistics of these characteristics were extracted and later combined to form a single objective measure. The direct use of statistics revealed structural or morphological patterns in streetscapes related to the perception of complexity. Furthermore, in comparison to conventional measures of visual complexity, the proposed objective measure exhibits a higher correlation with the opinion of the participants. Also, the performance of this method is more robust regarding different time scenarios.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia, Francisco; Palacio, Carlos; Garcia, Uriel
2012-01-01
Multivariate statistical techniques were used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of water quality at the Santa Marta coastal area where a submarine out fall that discharges 1 m3/s of domestic wastewater is located. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), cluster and principal component analysis and Krigging interpolation were considered for this report. Temporal variation showed two heterogeneous periods. From December to April, and July, where the concentration of the water quality parameters is higher; the rest of the year (May, June, August-November) were significantly lower. The spatial variation reported two areas where the water quality is different, this difference is related to the proximity to the submarine out fall discharge.
Quantum statistical model for hot dense matter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rukhsana Kouser; Tasneem, G.; Saleem Shahzad, M.; Shafiq-ur-Rehman; Nasim, M.H.; Amjad Ali
2015-01-01
In solving numerous applied problems, one needs to know the equation of state, photon absorption coefficient and opacity of substances employed. We present a code for absorption coefficient and opacity calculation based on quantum statistical model. A self-consistent method for the calculation of potential is used. By solving Schrödinger equation with self-consistent potential we find energy spectrum of quantum mechanical system and corresponding wave functions. In addition we find mean occupation numbers of electron states and average charge state of the substance studied. The main processes of interaction of radiation with matter included in our opacity calculation are photon absorption in spectral lines (Bound-bound), photoionization (Bound-free), inverse bremsstrahlung (Free-free), Compton and Thomson scattering. Bound-bound line shape function has contribution from natural, Doppler, fine structure, collisional and stark broadening. To illustrate the main features of the code and its capabilities, calculation of average charge state, absorption coefficient, Rosseland and Planck mean and group opacities of aluminum and iron are presented. Results are satisfactorily compared with the published data. (authors)
Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models
Pinzon, Jorge E.
2010-01-01
This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).
Properties of spatial Cox process models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper
Probabilistic properties of Cox processes of relevance for statistical modelling and inference are studied. Particularly, we study the most important classes of Cox processes, including log Gaussian Cox processes, shot noise Cox processes, and permanent Cox processes. We consider moment properties...... and point process operations such as thinning, displacements, and superpositioning. We also discuss how to simulate specific Cox processes....
The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability
Wise, James A.
1988-01-01
A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.
Understanding spatial organizations of chromosomes via statistical analysis of Hi-C data
Hu, Ming; Deng, Ke; Qin, Zhaohui; Liu, Jun S.
2015-01-01
Understanding how chromosomes fold provides insights into the transcription regulation, hence, the functional state of the cell. Using the next generation sequencing technology, the recently developed Hi-C approach enables a global view of spatial chromatin organization in the nucleus, which substantially expands our knowledge about genome organization and function. However, due to multiple layers of biases, noises and uncertainties buried in the protocol of Hi-C experiments, analyzing and interpreting Hi-C data poses great challenges, and requires novel statistical methods to be developed. This article provides an overview of recent Hi-C studies and their impacts on biomedical research, describes major challenges in statistical analysis of Hi-C data, and discusses some perspectives for future research. PMID:26124977
Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina.
Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E
2011-06-01
To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.
Spatial Modeling for Groundwater Arsenic Levels in North Carolina
Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E.
2013-01-01
To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. PMID:21528844
Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina
Kim, D.; Miranda, M.L.; Tootoo, J.; Bradley, P.; Gelfand, A.E.
2011-01-01
To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slowinski, B.
1987-01-01
A description of a simple phenomenological model of electromagnetic cascade process (ECP) initiated by high-energy gamma quanta in heavy absorbents is given. Within this model spatial structure and fluctuations of ionization losses of shower electrons and positrons are described. Concrete formulae have been obtained as a result of statistical analysis of experimental data from the xenon bubble chamber of ITEP (Moscow)
A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System
Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.
2017-11-01
The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.
A BRDF statistical model applying to space target materials modeling
Liu, Chenghao; Li, Zhi; Xu, Can; Tian, Qichen
2017-10-01
In order to solve the problem of poor effect in modeling the large density BRDF measured data with five-parameter semi-empirical model, a refined statistical model of BRDF which is suitable for multi-class space target material modeling were proposed. The refined model improved the Torrance-Sparrow model while having the modeling advantages of five-parameter model. Compared with the existing empirical model, the model contains six simple parameters, which can approximate the roughness distribution of the material surface, can approximate the intensity of the Fresnel reflectance phenomenon and the attenuation of the reflected light's brightness with the azimuth angle changes. The model is able to achieve parameter inversion quickly with no extra loss of accuracy. The genetic algorithm was used to invert the parameters of 11 different samples in the space target commonly used materials, and the fitting errors of all materials were below 6%, which were much lower than those of five-parameter model. The effect of the refined model is verified by comparing the fitting results of the three samples at different incident zenith angles in 0° azimuth angle. Finally, the three-dimensional modeling visualizations of these samples in the upper hemisphere space was given, in which the strength of the optical scattering of different materials could be clearly shown. It proved the good describing ability of the refined model at the material characterization as well.
Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals
Yu, Zhaoxia
2017-11-01
Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible solutions, and highlight future research directions.
Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals
Yu, Zhaoxia; Pluta, Dustin; Shen, Tong; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui; Ombao, Hernando
2017-01-01
Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible
Statistical Learning Theory: Models, Concepts, and Results
von Luxburg, Ulrike; Schoelkopf, Bernhard
2008-01-01
Statistical learning theory provides the theoretical basis for many of today's machine learning algorithms. In this article we attempt to give a gentle, non-technical overview over the key ideas and insights of statistical learning theory. We target at a broad audience, not necessarily machine learning researchers. This paper can serve as a starting point for people who want to get an overview on the field before diving into technical details.
The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability
Wise, J. A.
1985-01-01
A model for the quantitative assessment of human spatial habitability is presented in the space station context. The visual aspect assesses how interior spaces appear to the inhabitants. This aspect concerns criteria such as sensed spaciousness and the affective (emotional) connotations of settings' appearances. The kinesthetic aspect evaluates the available space in terms of its suitability to accommodate human movement patterns, as well as the postural and anthrometric changes due to microgravity. Finally, social logic concerns how the volume and geometry of available space either affirms or contravenes established social and organizational expectations for spatial arrangements. Here, the criteria include privacy, status, social power, and proxemics (the uses of space as a medium of social communication).
Modeling mental spatial reasoning about cardinal directions.
Schultheis, Holger; Bertel, Sven; Barkowsky, Thomas
2014-01-01
This article presents research into human mental spatial reasoning with orientation knowledge. In particular, we look at reasoning problems about cardinal directions that possess multiple valid solutions (i.e., are spatially underdetermined), at human preferences for some of these solutions, and at representational and procedural factors that lead to such preferences. The article presents, first, a discussion of existing, related conceptual and computational approaches; second, results of empirical research into the solution preferences that human reasoners actually have; and, third, a novel computational model that relies on a parsimonious and flexible spatio-analogical knowledge representation structure to robustly reproduce the behavior observed with human reasoners. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Analysing the distribution of synaptic vesicles using a spatial point process model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khanmohammadi, Mahdieh; Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Nava, Nicoletta
2014-01-01
functionality by statistically modelling the distribution of the synaptic vesicles in two groups of rats: a control group subjected to sham stress and a stressed group subjected to a single acute foot-shock (FS)-stress episode. We hypothesize that the synaptic vesicles have different spatial distributions...... in the two groups. The spatial distributions are modelled using spatial point process models with an inhomogeneous conditional intensity and repulsive pairwise interactions. Our results verify the hypothesis that the two groups have different spatial distributions....
Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses
Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus
2017-06-01
Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.
Remote Sensing Based Spatial Statistics to Document Tropical Rainforest Transition Pathways
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abduwasit Ghulam
2015-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, grid cell based spatial statistics were used to quantify the drivers of land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC and habitat degradation in a tropical rainforest in Madagascar. First, a spectral database of various land-cover and land-use information was compiled using multi-year field campaign data and photointerpretation of satellite images. Next, residential areas were extracted from IKONOS-2 and GeoEye-1 images using object oriented feature extraction (OBIA. Then, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+ data were used to generate land-cover and land-use maps from 1990 to 2011, and LCLUC maps were developed with decadal intervals and converted to 100 m vector grid cells. Finally, the causal associations between LCLUC were quantified using ordinary least square regression analysis and Moran’s I, and a forest disturbance index derived from the time series Landsat data were used to further confirm LCLUC drivers. The results showed that (1 local spatial statistical approaches were most effective at quantifying the drivers of LCLUC, and (2 the combined threats of habitat degradation in and around the reserve and increasing encroachment of invasive plant species lead to the expansion of shrubland and mixed forest within the former primary forest, which was echoed by the forest disturbance index derived from the Landsat data.
de Groot, Marius; Vernooij, Meike W; Klein, Stefan; Ikram, M Arfan; Vos, Frans M; Smith, Stephen M; Niessen, Wiro J; Andersson, Jesper L R
2013-08-01
Anatomical alignment in neuroimaging studies is of such importance that considerable effort is put into improving the registration used to establish spatial correspondence. Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) is a popular method for comparing diffusion characteristics across subjects. TBSS establishes spatial correspondence using a combination of nonlinear registration and a "skeleton projection" that may break topological consistency of the transformed brain images. We therefore investigated feasibility of replacing the two-stage registration-projection procedure in TBSS with a single, regularized, high-dimensional registration. To optimize registration parameters and to evaluate registration performance in diffusion MRI, we designed an evaluation framework that uses native space probabilistic tractography for 23 white matter tracts, and quantifies tract similarity across subjects in standard space. We optimized parameters for two registration algorithms on two diffusion datasets of different quality. We investigated reproducibility of the evaluation framework, and of the optimized registration algorithms. Next, we compared registration performance of the regularized registration methods and TBSS. Finally, feasibility and effect of incorporating the improved registration in TBSS were evaluated in an example study. The evaluation framework was highly reproducible for both algorithms (R(2) 0.993; 0.931). The optimal registration parameters depended on the quality of the dataset in a graded and predictable manner. At optimal parameters, both algorithms outperformed the registration of TBSS, showing feasibility of adopting such approaches in TBSS. This was further confirmed in the example experiment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.
Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G
2015-01-01
In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Helbich, M; Griffith, D
2016-01-01
Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns
Statistical Models for Inferring Vegetation Composition from Fossil Pollen
Paciorek, C.; McLachlan, J. S.; Shang, Z.
2011-12-01
Fossil pollen provide information about vegetation composition that can be used to help understand how vegetation has changed over the past. However, these data have not traditionally been analyzed in a way that allows for statistical inference about spatio-temporal patterns and trends. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model called STEPPS (Spatio-Temporal Empirical Prediction from Pollen in Sediments) that predicts forest composition in southern New England, USA, over the last two millenia based on fossil pollen. The critical relationships between abundances of tree taxa in the pollen record and abundances in actual vegetation are estimated using modern (Forest Inventory Analysis) data and (witness tree) data from colonial records. This gives us two time points at which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available. Based on these relationships, and incorporating our uncertainty about them, we predict forest composition using fossil pollen. We estimate the spatial distribution and relative abundances of tree species and draw inference about how these patterns have changed over time. Finally, we describe ongoing work to extend the modeling to the upper Midwest of the U.S., including an approach to infer tree density and thereby estimate the prairie-forest boundary in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This work is part of the PalEON project, which brings together a team of ecosystem modelers, paleoecologists, and statisticians with the goal of reconstructing vegetation responses to climate during the last two millenia in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The estimates from the statistical modeling will be used to assess and calibrate ecosystem models that are used to project ecological changes in response to global change.
A Computational Model of Spatial Development
Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven
Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.
Dataset of coded handwriting features for use in statistical modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Agius
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The data presented here is related to the article titled, “Using handwriting to infer a writer's country of origin for forensic intelligence purposes” (Agius et al., 2017 [1]. This article reports original writer, spatial and construction characteristic data for thirty-seven English Australian11 In this study, English writers were Australians whom had learnt to write in New South Wales (NSW. writers and thirty-seven Vietnamese writers. All of these characteristics were coded and recorded in Microsoft Excel 2013 (version 15.31. The construction characteristics coded were only extracted from seven characters, which were: ‘g’, ‘h’, ‘th’, ‘M’, ‘0’, ‘7’ and ‘9’. The coded format of the writer, spatial and construction characteristics is made available in this Data in Brief in order to allow others to perform statistical analyses and modelling to investigate whether there is a relationship between the handwriting features and the nationality of the writer, and whether the two nationalities can be differentiated. Furthermore, to employ mathematical techniques that are capable of characterising the extracted features from each participant.
Spatially varying dispersion to model breakthrough curves.
Li, Guangquan
2011-01-01
Often the water flowing in a karst conduit is a combination of contaminated water entering at a sinkhole and cleaner water released from the limestone matrix. Transport processes in the conduit are controlled by advection, mixing (dilution and dispersion), and retention-release. In this article, a karst transport model considering advection, spatially varying dispersion, and dilution (from matrix seepage) is developed. Two approximate Green's functions are obtained using transformation of variables, respectively, for the initial-value problem and for the boundary-value problem. A numerical example illustrates that mixing associated with strong spatially varying conduit dispersion can cause strong skewness and long tailing in spring breakthrough curves. Comparison of the predicted breakthrough curve against that measured from a dye-tracing experiment between Ames Sink and Indian Spring, Northwest Florida, shows that the conduit dispersivity can be as large as 400 m. Such a large number is believed to imply strong solute interaction between the conduit and the matrix and/or multiple flow paths in a conduit network. It is concluded that Taylor dispersion is not dominant in transport in a karst conduit, and the complicated retention-release process between mobile- and immobile waters may be described by strong spatially varying conduit dispersion. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.
Integer Set Compression and Statistical Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsson, N. Jesper
2014-01-01
enumeration of elements may be arbitrary or random, but where statistics is kept in order to estimate probabilities of elements. We present a recursive subset-size encoding method that is able to benefit from statistics, explore the effects of permuting the enumeration order based on element probabilities......Compression of integer sets and sequences has been extensively studied for settings where elements follow a uniform probability distribution. In addition, methods exist that exploit clustering of elements in order to achieve higher compression performance. In this work, we address the case where...
Statistical modelling for social researchers principles and practice
Tarling, Roger
2008-01-01
This book explains the principles and theory of statistical modelling in an intelligible way for the non-mathematical social scientist looking to apply statistical modelling techniques in research. The book also serves as an introduction for those wishing to develop more detailed knowledge and skills in statistical modelling. Rather than present a limited number of statistical models in great depth, the aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the statistical models currently adopted in social research, in order that the researcher can make appropriate choices and select the most suitable model for the research question to be addressed. To facilitate application, the book also offers practical guidance and instruction in fitting models using SPSS and Stata, the most popular statistical computer software which is available to most social researchers. Instruction in using MLwiN is also given. Models covered in the book include; multiple regression, binary, multinomial and ordered logistic regression, log-l...
An Evolutionary Model of Spatial Competition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Winter, Sidney G.
This paper sets forth an evolutionary model in which diverse businesses, with diverse offerings, compete in a stylized physical space. When a business firm attempts to expand its activity, so as to profit further from the capabilities it has developed, it necessarily does so in a "new location...... as well in the new environment as they did in the old; the firm may respond with effort to locate appropriate environments or by modification of its routines. Tradeoffs are presented between the complexity of a business model and its replication costs, as well as issues involving response....... Randomly generated firm policies are tested first by a local market environment, and then, if success leads the firm to grow spatially, in a gradually expanding environment. In the initial experiments reported here, we show that the model generates configurations that reflect features of the exogenous...
Statistics of the turbulent/non-turbulent interface in a spatially developing mixing layer
Attili, Antonio
2014-06-02
The thin interface separating the inner turbulent region from the outer irrotational fluid is analysed in a direct numerical simulation of a spatially developing turbulent mixing layer. A vorticity threshold is defined to detect the interface separating the turbulent from the non-turbulent regions of the flow, and to calculate statistics conditioned on the distance from this interface. The conditional statistics for velocity are in remarkable agreement with the results for other free shear flows available in the literature, such as turbulent jets and wakes. In addition, an analysis of the passive scalar field in the vicinity of the interface is presented. It is shown that the scalar has a jump at the interface, even stronger than that observed for velocity. The strong jump for the scalar has been observed before in the case of high Schmidt number (Sc). In the present study, such a strong jump is observed for a scalar with Sc ≈ 1. Conditional statistics of kinetic energy and scalar dissipation are presented. While the kinetic energy dissipation has its maximum far from the interface, the scalar dissipation is characterised by a strong peak very close to the interface. Finally, it is shown that the geometric features of the interfaces correlate with relatively large scale structures as visualised by low-pressure isosurfaces. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.
Statistics of the turbulent/non-turbulent interface in a spatially evolving mixing layer
Cristancho, Juan
2012-12-01
The thin interface separating the inner turbulent region from the outer irrotational fluid is analyzed in a direct numerical simulation of a spatially developing turbulent mixing layer. A vorticity threshold is defined to detect the interface separating the turbulent from the non-turbulent regions of the flow, and to calculate statistics conditioned on the distance from this interface. Velocity and passive scalar statistics are computed and compared to the results of studies addressing other shear flows, such as turbulent jets and wakes. The conditional statistics for velocity are in remarkable agreement with the results for other types of free shear flow available in the literature. In addition, a detailed analysis of the passive scalar field (with Sc 1) in the vicinity of the interface is presented. The scalar has a jump at the interface, even stronger than that observed for velocity. The strong jump for the scalar has been observed before in the case of high Schmidt number, but it is a new result for Schmidt number of order one. Finally, the dissipation for the kinetic energy and the scalar are presented. While the kinetic energy dissipation has its maximum far from the interface, the scalar dissipation is characterized by a strong peak very close to the interface.
Linear Mixed Models in Statistical Genetics
R. de Vlaming (Ronald)
2017-01-01
markdownabstractOne of the goals of statistical genetics is to elucidate the genetic architecture of phenotypes (i.e., observable individual characteristics) that are affected by many genetic variants (e.g., single-nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs). A particular aim is to identify specific SNPs that
Spatial statistics of magnetic field in two-dimensional chaotic flow in the resistive growth stage
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kolokolov, I.V., E-mail: igor.kolokolov@gmail.com [Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics RAS, 119334, Kosygina 2, Moscow (Russian Federation); NRU Higher School of Economics, 101000, Myasnitskaya 20, Moscow (Russian Federation)
2017-03-18
The correlation tensors of magnetic field in a two-dimensional chaotic flow of conducting fluid are studied. It is shown that there is a stage of resistive evolution where the field correlators grow exponentially with time. The two- and four-point field correlation tensors are computed explicitly in this stage in the framework of Batchelor–Kraichnan–Kazantsev model. They demonstrate strong temporal intermittency of the field fluctuations and high level of non-Gaussianity in spatial field distribution.
Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis
Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo
2013-01-01
Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical
Bosomprah, Samuel; Dotse-Gborgbortsi, Winfred; Aboagye, Patrick; Matthews, Zoe
2016-11-01
To identify and evaluate clusters of births that occurred outside health facilities in Ghana for targeted intervention. A retrospective study was conducted using a convenience sample of live births registered in Ghanaian health facilities from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Data were extracted from the district health information system. A spatial scan statistic was used to investigate clusters of home births through a discrete Poisson probability model. Scanning with a circular spatial window was conducted only for clusters with high rates of such deliveries. The district was used as the geographic unit of analysis. The likelihood P value was estimated using Monte Carlo simulations. Ten statistically significant clusters with a high rate of home birth were identified. The relative risks ranged from 1.43 ("least likely" cluster; P=0.001) to 1.95 ("most likely" cluster; P=0.001). The relative risks of the top five "most likely" clusters ranged from 1.68 to 1.95; these clusters were located in Ashanti, Brong Ahafo, and the Western, Eastern, and Greater regions of Accra. Health facility records, geospatial techniques, and geographic information systems provided locally relevant information to assist policy makers in delivering targeted interventions to small geographic areas. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui
2012-01-01
Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics
Panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable
Elhorst, J. Paul
2001-01-01
This paper surveys panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable. In particular, it focuses on the specification and estimation of four panel data models commonly used in applied research: the fixed effects model, the random effects model, the
Flashover of a vacuum-insulator interface: A statistical model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. A. Stygar
2004-07-01
Full Text Available We have developed a statistical model for the flashover of a 45° vacuum-insulator interface (such as would be found in an accelerator subject to a pulsed electric field. The model assumes that the initiation of a flashover plasma is a stochastic process, that the characteristic statistical component of the flashover delay time is much greater than the plasma formative time, and that the average rate at which flashovers occur is a power-law function of the instantaneous value of the electric field. Under these conditions, we find that the flashover probability is given by 1-exp(-E_{p}^{β}t_{eff}C/k^{β}, where E_{p} is the peak value in time of the spatially averaged electric field E(t, t_{eff}≡∫[E(t/E_{p}]^{β}dt is the effective pulse width, C is the insulator circumference, k∝exp(λ/d, and β and λ are constants. We define E(t as V(t/d, where V(t is the voltage across the insulator and d is the insulator thickness. Since the model assumes that flashovers occur at random azimuthal locations along the insulator, it does not apply to systems that have a significant defect, i.e., a location contaminated with debris or compromised by an imperfection at which flashovers repeatedly take place, and which prevents a random spatial distribution. The model is consistent with flashover measurements to within 7% for pulse widths between 0.5 ns and 10 μs, and to within a factor of 2 between 0.5 ns and 90 s (a span of over 11 orders of magnitude. For these measurements, E_{p} ranges from 64 to 651 kV/cm, d from 0.50 to 4.32 cm, and C from 4.96 to 95.74 cm. The model is significantly more accurate, and is valid over a wider range of parameters, than the J. C. Martin flashover relation that has been in use since 1971 [J. C. Martin on Pulsed Power, edited by T. H. Martin, A. H. Guenther, and M. Kristiansen (Plenum, New York, 1996]. We have generalized the statistical model to estimate the total-flashover probability of an
Geometric modeling in probability and statistics
Calin, Ovidiu
2014-01-01
This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...
Challenges in dental statistics: data and modelling
Matranga, D.; Castiglia, P.; Solinas, G.
2013-01-01
The aim of this work is to present the reflections and proposals derived from the first Workshop of the SISMEC STATDENT working group on statistical methods and applications in dentistry, held in Ancona (Italy) on 28th September 2011. STATDENT began as a forum of comparison and discussion for statisticians working in the field of dental research in order to suggest new and improve existing biostatistical and clinical epidemiological methods. During the meeting, we dealt with very important to...
A statistical model of future human actions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Woo, G.
1992-02-01
A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)
Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Syversveen, Anne Randi
1997-12-31
The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.
Theoretical aspects of spatial-temporal modeling
Matsui, Tomoko
2015-01-01
This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized theoretical aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter provides up-to-date coverage of particle association measures that underpin the theoretical properties of recently developed random set methods in space and time otherwise known as the class of probability hypothesis density framework (PHD filters). The second chapter gives an overview of recent advances in Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In particular, the chapter explains how one may extend classical sequential Monte Carlo methods for filtering and static inference problems to high dimensions and big-data applications. The third chapter presents an overview of generalized families of processes that extend the class of Gaussian process models to heavy-tailed families known as alph...
Spatial statistical analysis of organs for intelligent CAD and its application to disease detection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Takizawa, Hotaka
2009-01-01
The present article reports our research that was performed in a research project supported by a Grantin-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Area from the Ministry of Education, Culture Sports, Science and Technology, JAPAN, from 2003 to 2006. Our method developed in the research acquired the trend of variation of spatial relations between true diseases, false positives and image features through statistical analysis of a set of medical images and improved the accuracy of disease detection by predicting their occurrence positions in an image based on the trend. This article describes the formulation of the method in general form and shows the results obtained by applying the method to chest X-ray CT images for detection of pulmonary nodules. (author)
Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.
2005-01-01
We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...
Statistical models of shape optimisation and evaluation
Davies, Rhodri; Taylor, Chris
2014-01-01
Deformable shape models have wide application in computer vision and biomedical image analysis. This book addresses a key issue in shape modelling: establishment of a meaningful correspondence between a set of shapes. Full implementation details are provided.
Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.
2013-01-01
Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science
Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models
Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K
2011-01-01
An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a
Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using Hierarchical Bayesian models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andrade, A.R.; Teixeira, P.F.
2015-01-01
Railway maintenance planners require a predictive model that can assess the railway track geometry degradation. The present paper uses a Hierarchical Bayesian model as a tool to model the main two quality indicators related to railway track geometry degradation: the standard deviation of longitudinal level defects and the standard deviation of horizontal alignment defects. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) are flexible statistical models that allow specifying different spatially correlated components between consecutive track sections, namely for the deterioration rates and the initial qualities parameters. HBM are developed for both quality indicators, conducting an extensive comparison between candidate models and a sensitivity analysis on prior distributions. HBM is applied to provide an overall assessment of the degradation of railway track geometry, for the main Portuguese railway line Lisbon–Oporto. - Highlights: • Rail track geometry degradation is analysed using Hierarchical Bayesian models. • A Gibbs sampling strategy is put forward to estimate the HBM. • Model comparison and sensitivity analysis find the most suitable model. • We applied the most suitable model to all the segments of the main Portuguese line. • Tackling spatial correlations using CAR structures lead to a better model fit
Statistical modelling of traffic safety development
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christens, Peter
2004-01-01
there were 6861 injury trafficc accidents reported by the police, resulting in 4519 minor injuries, 3946 serious injuries, and 431 fatalities. The general purpose of the research was to improve the insight into aggregated road safety methodology in Denmark. The aim was to analyse advanced statistical methods......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...
A statistical mechanical model for equilibrium ionization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Macris, N.; Martin, P.A.; Pule, J.
1990-01-01
A quantum electron interacts with a classical gas of hard spheres and is in thermal equilibrium with it. The interaction is attractive and the electron can form a bound state with the classical particles. It is rigorously shown that in a well defined low density and low temperature limit, the ionization probability for the electron tends to the value predicted by the Saha formula for thermal ionization. In this regime, the electron is found to be in a statistical mixture of a bound and a free state. (orig.)
Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund
2014-01-01
Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.
Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics
Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.
2013-12-01
Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.
Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)
2014-04-15
Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.
A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2013-01-01
of extreme rainfall events, a statistical model is tested for this purpose. The model is built on the theory of generalized linear models and uses Poisson regression solved by generalized estimation equations. Spatial and temporal explanatory variables can be included simultaneously, and their relative...
Fluctuations and correlations in statistical models of hadron production
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gorenstein, M. I.
2012-01-01
An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution are introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.
Analysis and Evaluation of Statistical Models for Integrated Circuits Design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sáenz-Noval J.J.
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Statistical models for integrated circuits (IC allow us to estimate the percentage of acceptable devices in the batch before fabrication. Actually, Pelgrom is the statistical model most accepted in the industry; however it was derived from a micrometer technology, which does not guarantee reliability in nanometric manufacturing processes. This work considers three of the most relevant statistical models in the industry and evaluates their limitations and advantages in analog design, so that the designer has a better criterion to make a choice. Moreover, it shows how several statistical models can be used for each one of the stages and design purposes.
Modeling of uncertainties in statistical inverse problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaipio, Jari
2008-01-01
In all real world problems, the models that tie the measurements to the unknowns of interest, are at best only approximations for reality. While moderate modeling and approximation errors can be tolerated with stable problems, inverse problems are a notorious exception. Typical modeling errors include inaccurate geometry, unknown boundary and initial data, properties of noise and other disturbances, and simply the numerical approximations of the physical models. In principle, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which all uncertainties are modeled as random variables, is capable of handling these uncertainties. Depending on the type of uncertainties, however, different strategies may be adopted. In this paper we give an overview of typical modeling errors and related strategies within the Bayesian framework.
Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.
Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory
2014-01-01
A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.
Statistical modeling and extrapolation of carcinogenesis data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Dewanji, A.
1986-01-01
Mathematical models of carcinogenesis are reviewed, including pharmacokinetic models for metabolic activation of carcinogenic substances. Maximum likelihood procedures for fitting these models to epidemiological data are discussed, including situations where the time to tumor occurrence is unobservable. The plausibility of different possible shapes of the dose response curve at low doses is examined, and a robust method for linear extrapolation to low doses is proposed and applied to epidemiological data on radiation carcinogenesis
Plan Recognition using Statistical Relational Models
2014-08-25
corresponding undirected model can be significantly more complex since there is no closed form solution for the maximum-likelihood set of parameters unlike in...algorithm did not scale to larger training sets, and the overall results are still not competitive with BALPs. 5In directed models, a closed form solution...opinions of ARO, DARPA, NSF or any other government agency. References Albrecht DW, Zukerman I, Nicholson AE. Bayesian models for keyhole plan
Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models
Fahrmeir, Ludwig
1994-01-01
This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...
Titov, A. G.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.
2017-11-01
The use of large geospatial datasets in climate change studies requires the development of a set of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) elements, including geoprocessing and cartographical visualization web services. This paper presents the architecture of a geospatial OGC web service system as an integral part of a virtual research environment (VRE) general architecture for statistical processing and visualization of meteorological and climatic data. The architecture is a set of interconnected standalone SDI nodes with corresponding data storage systems. Each node runs a specialized software, such as a geoportal, cartographical web services (WMS/WFS), a metadata catalog, and a MySQL database of technical metadata describing geospatial datasets available for the node. It also contains geospatial data processing services (WPS) based on a modular computing backend realizing statistical processing functionality and, thus, providing analysis of large datasets with the results of visualization and export into files of standard formats (XML, binary, etc.). Some cartographical web services have been developed in a system’s prototype to provide capabilities to work with raster and vector geospatial data based on OGC web services. The distributed architecture presented allows easy addition of new nodes, computing and data storage systems, and provides a solid computational infrastructure for regional climate change studies based on modern Web and GIS technologies.
Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling
Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.
2012-01-01
Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.
Statistical shape modeling based renal volume measurement using tracked ultrasound
Pai Raikar, Vipul; Kwartowitz, David M.
2017-03-01
Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the fourth most common cause of kidney transplant worldwide accounting for 7-10% of all cases. Although ADPKD usually progresses over many decades, accurate risk prediction is an important task.1 Identifying patients with progressive disease is vital to providing new treatments being developed and enable them to enter clinical trials for new therapy. Among other factors, total kidney volume (TKV) is a major biomarker predicting the progression of ADPKD. Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies in Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP)2 have shown that TKV is an early, and accurate measure of cystic burden and likely growth rate. It is strongly associated with loss of renal function.3 While ultrasound (US) has proven as an excellent tool for diagnosing the disease; monitoring short-term changes using ultrasound has been shown to not be accurate. This is attributed to high operator variability and reproducibility as compared to tomographic modalities such as CT and MR (Gold standard). Ultrasound has emerged as one of the standout modality for intra-procedural imaging and with methods for spatial localization has afforded us the ability to track 2D ultrasound in physical space which it is being used. In addition to this, the vast amount of recorded tomographic data can be used to generate statistical shape models that allow us to extract clinical value from archived image sets. In this work, we aim at improving the prognostic value of US in managing ADPKD by assessing the accuracy of using statistical shape model augmented US data, to predict TKV, with the end goal of monitoring short-term changes.
Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)
2012-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.
Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan
L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)
2013-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.
Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment.
Guo, Weijun
2017-11-01
To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sohair F Higazi
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Regression analysis depends on several assumptions that have to be satisfied. A major assumption that is never satisfied when variables are from contiguous observations is the independence of error terms. Spatial analysis treated the violation of that assumption by two derived models that put contiguity of observations into consideration. Data used are from Egypt's 2006 latest census, for 93 counties in middle delta seven adjacent Governorates. The dependent variable used is the percent of individuals classified as poor (those who make less than 1$ daily. Predictors are some demographic indicators. Explanatory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA is performed to examine the existence of spatial clustering and spatial autocorrelation between neighboring counties. The ESDA revealed spatial clusters and spatial correlation between locations. Three statistical models are applied to the data, the Ordinary Least Square regression model (OLS, the Spatial Error Model (SEM and the Spatial Lag Model (SLM.The Likelihood Ratio test and some information criterions are used to compare SLM and SEM to OLS. The SEM model proved to be better than the SLM model. Recommendations are drawn regarding the two spatial models used.
A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model
Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak
2013-01-01
Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...
On the Logical Development of Statistical Models.
1983-12-01
1978). "Modelos con parametros variables en el analisis de series temporales " Questiio, 4, 2, 75-87. [25] Seal, H. L. (1967). "The historical...example, a classical state-space representation of a simple time series model is: yt = it + ut Ut = *It-I + Ct (2.2) ut and et are independent normal...on its past values is displayed in the structural equation. This approach has been particularly useful in time series models. For example, model (2.2
A Noise Robust Statistical Texture Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Larsen, Rasmus
2002-01-01
Appearance Models segmentation framework. This is accomplished by augmenting the model with an estimate of the covariance of the noise present in the training data. This results in a more compact model maximising the signal-to-noise ratio, thus favouring subspaces rich on signal, but low on noise......This paper presents a novel approach to the problem of obtaining a low dimensional representation of texture (pixel intensity) variation present in a training set after alignment using a Generalised Procrustes analysis.We extend the conventional analysis of training textures in the Active...
GIS-based spatial statistical analysis of risk areas for liver flukes in Surin Province of Thailand.
Rujirakul, Ratana; Ueng-arporn, Naporn; Kaewpitoon, Soraya; Loyd, Ryan J; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut
2015-01-01
It is urgently necessary to be aware of the distribution and risk areas of liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, for proper allocation of prevention and control measures. This study aimed to investigate the human behavior, and environmental factors influencing the distribution in Surin Province of Thailand, and to build a model using stepwise multiple regression analysis with a geographic information system (GIS) on environment and climate data. The relationship between the human behavior, attitudes (R Square=0.878, and, Adjust R Square=0.849. By GIS analysis, we found Si Narong, Sangkha, Phanom Dong Rak, Mueang Surin, Non Narai, Samrong Thap, Chumphon Buri, and Rattanaburi to have the highest distributions in Surin province. In conclusion, the combination of GIS and statistical analysis can help simulate the spatial distribution and risk areas of liver fluke, and thus may be an important tool for future planning of prevention and control measures.
Towards Quantitative Spatial Models of Seabed Sediment Composition.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Stephens
Full Text Available There is a need for fit-for-purpose maps for accurately depicting the types of seabed substrate and habitat and the properties of the seabed for the benefits of research, resource management, conservation and spatial planning. The aim of this study is to determine whether it is possible to predict substrate composition across a large area of seabed using legacy grain-size data and environmental predictors. The study area includes the North Sea up to approximately 58.44°N and the United Kingdom's parts of the English Channel and the Celtic Seas. The analysis combines outputs from hydrodynamic models as well as optical remote sensing data from satellite platforms and bathymetric variables, which are mainly derived from acoustic remote sensing. We build a statistical regression model to make quantitative predictions of sediment composition (fractions of mud, sand and gravel using the random forest algorithm. The compositional data is analysed on the additive log-ratio scale. An independent test set indicates that approximately 66% and 71% of the variability of the two log-ratio variables are explained by the predictive models. A EUNIS substrate model, derived from the predicted sediment composition, achieved an overall accuracy of 83% and a kappa coefficient of 0.60. We demonstrate that it is feasible to spatially predict the seabed sediment composition across a large area of continental shelf in a repeatable and validated way. We also highlight the potential for further improvements to the method.
Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes
Jun, M.
2014-09-16
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.
Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes
Jun, M.; Katzfuss, M.; Hu, J.; Johnson, V. E.
2014-01-01
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.
Hayslett, H T
1991-01-01
Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the
12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications
Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof
2015-01-01
This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.
Materials Informatics: Statistical Modeling in Material Science.
Yosipof, Abraham; Shimanovich, Klimentiy; Senderowitz, Hanoch
2016-12-01
Material informatics is engaged with the application of informatic principles to materials science in order to assist in the discovery and development of new materials. Central to the field is the application of data mining techniques and in particular machine learning approaches, often referred to as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling, to derive predictive models for a variety of materials-related "activities". Such models can accelerate the development of new materials with favorable properties and provide insight into the factors governing these properties. Here we provide a comparison between medicinal chemistry/drug design and materials-related QSAR modeling and highlight the importance of developing new, materials-specific descriptors. We survey some of the most recent QSAR models developed in materials science with focus on energetic materials and on solar cells. Finally we present new examples of material-informatic analyses of solar cells libraries produced from metal oxides using combinatorial material synthesis. Different analyses lead to interesting physical insights as well as to the design of new cells with potentially improved photovoltaic parameters. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Introduction to statistical modelling: linear regression.
Lunt, Mark
2015-07-01
In many studies we wish to assess how a range of variables are associated with a particular outcome and also determine the strength of such relationships so that we can begin to understand how these factors relate to each other at a population level. Ultimately, we may also be interested in predicting the outcome from a series of predictive factors available at, say, a routine clinic visit. In a recent article in Rheumatology, Desai et al. did precisely that when they studied the prediction of hip and spine BMD from hand BMD and various demographic, lifestyle, disease and therapy variables in patients with RA. This article aims to introduce the statistical methodology that can be used in such a situation and explain the meaning of some of the terms employed. It will also outline some common pitfalls encountered when performing such analyses. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Spatial Data Web Services Pricing Model Infrastructure
Ozmus, L.; Erkek, B.; Colak, S.; Cankurt, I.; Bakıcı, S.
2013-08-01
most important law with related NSDI is the establishment of General Directorate of Geographic Information System under the Ministry of Environment and Urbanism. due to; to do or to have do works and activities with related to the establishment of National Geographic Information Systems (NGIS), usage of NGIS and improvements of NGIS. Outputs of these projects are served to not only public administration but also to Turkish society. Today for example, TAKBIS data (cadastre services) are shared more than 50 institutions by Web services, Tusaga-Aktif system has more than 3800 users who are having real-time GPS data correction, Orthophoto WMS services has been started for two years as a charge of free. Today there is great discussion about data pricing among the institutions. Some of them think that the pricing is storage of the data. Some of them think that the pricing is value of data itself. There is no certain rule about pricing. On this paper firstly, pricing of data storage and later on spatial data pricing models in different countries are investigated to improve institutional understanding in Turkey.
Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan
2007-01-01
Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the
Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models
Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan
2007-11-01
Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the
Latent domain models for statistical machine translation
Hoàng, C.
2017-01-01
A data-driven approach to model translation suffers from the data mismatch problem and demands domain adaptation techniques. Given parallel training data originating from a specific domain, training an MT system on the data would result in a rather suboptimal translation for other domains. But does
Behavioral and statistical models of educational inequality
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard
2016-01-01
This paper addresses the question of how students and their families make educational decisions. We describe three types of behavioral model that might underlie decision-making and we show that they have consequences for what decisions are made. Our study thus has policy implications if we wish...
Statistical modelling of fine red wine production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
María Rosa Castro
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.
Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing
Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean
2017-05-01
The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.
Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
random sampling allows data to be modelled with the help of probability ... g based on different trials to get an estimate of the experimental error. ... research interests lie in the .... if e is indeed the true value of the proportion of defectives in the.
Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto
2016-01-01
average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...
A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marjaneh Issapour
2012-12-01
Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.
Structured Statistical Models of Inductive Reasoning
Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
2009-01-01
Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hicham Ezzine
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This study aims to improve the statistical spatial downscaling of coarse precipitation (TRMM 3B43 product and also to explore its limitations in the Mediterranean area. It was carried out in Morocco and was based on an open dataset including four predictors (NDVI, NDWI, DEM, and distance from sea that explain TRMM 3B43 product. For this purpose, four groups of models were established based on different combinations of the four predictors, in order to compare from one side NDVI and NDWI based models and the other side stepwise with multiple regression. The models that have given rise to the best approximations and best fits were used to downscale TRMM 3B43 product. The resulting downscaled and calibrated precipitations were validated by independent RGS. Aside from that, the limitations of the proposed approach were assessed in five bioclimatic stages. Furthermore, the influence of the sea was analyzed in five classes of distance. The findings showed that the models built using NDVI and NDWI have a high correlation and therefore can be used to downscale precipitation. The integration of elevation and distance improved the correlation models. According to R2, RMSE, bias, and MAE, the study revealed that there is a great agreement between downscaled precipitations and RGS measurements. In addition, the analysis showed that the contribution of the variable (distance from sea is evident around the coastal area and decreases progressively. Likewise, the study demonstrated that the approach performs well in humid and arid bioclimatic stages compared to others.
Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Olkiluoto Structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hellae, P.; Vaittinen, T.; Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.
2004-11-01
Posiva Oy is carrying out investigations for the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in SW Finland. The investigations have focused on the central part of the island. The layout design of the entire repository requires characterization of notably larger areas and must rely at least at the current stage on borehole information from a rather sparse network and on the geophysical soundings providing information outside and between the holes. In this work, the structural data according to the current version of the Olkiluoto bedrock model is analyzed. The bedrock model relies much on the borehole data although results of the seismic surveys and, for example, pumping tests are used in determining the orientation and continuation of the structures. Especially in the analysis, questions related to the frequency of structures and size of the structures are discussed. The structures observed in the boreholes are mainly dipping gently to the southeast. About 9 % of the sample length belongs to structures. The proportion is higher in the upper parts of the rock. The number of fracture and crushed zones seems not to depend greatly on the depth, whereas the hydraulic features concentrate on the depth range above -100 m. Below level -300 m, the hydraulic conductivity occurs in connection of fractured zones. Especially the hydraulic features, but also fracture and crushed zones often occur in groups. The frequency of the structure (area of structures per total volume) is estimated to be of the order of 1/100m. The size of the local structures was estimated by calculating the intersection of the zone to the nearest borehole where the zone has not been detected. Stochastic models using the Fracman software by Golder Associates were generated based on the bedrock model data complemented with the magnetic ground survey data. The seismic surveys (from boreholes KR5, KR13, KR14, and KR19) were used as alternative input data. The generated models were tested by
Automated robust generation of compact 3D statistical shape models
Vrtovec, Tomaz; Likar, Bostjan; Tomazevic, Dejan; Pernus, Franjo
2004-05-01
Ascertaining the detailed shape and spatial arrangement of anatomical structures is important not only within diagnostic settings but also in the areas of planning, simulation, intraoperative navigation, and tracking of pathology. Robust, accurate and efficient automated segmentation of anatomical structures is difficult because of their complexity and inter-patient variability. Furthermore, the position of the patient during image acquisition, the imaging device and protocol, image resolution, and other factors induce additional variations in shape and appearance. Statistical shape models (SSMs) have proven quite successful in capturing structural variability. A possible approach to obtain a 3D SSM is to extract reference voxels by precisely segmenting the structure in one, reference image. The corresponding voxels in other images are determined by registering the reference image to each other image. The SSM obtained in this way describes statistically plausible shape variations over the given population as well as variations due to imperfect registration. In this paper, we present a completely automated method that significantly reduces shape variations induced by imperfect registration, thus allowing a more accurate description of variations. At each iteration, the derived SSM is used for coarse registration, which is further improved by describing finer variations of the structure. The method was tested on 64 lumbar spinal column CT scans, from which 23, 38, 45, 46 and 42 volumes of interest containing vertebra L1, L2, L3, L4 and L5, respectively, were extracted. Separate SSMs were generated for each vertebra. The results show that the method is capable of reducing the variations induced by registration errors.
Modeling statistical properties of written text.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M Angeles Serrano
Full Text Available Written text is one of the fundamental manifestations of human language, and the study of its universal regularities can give clues about how our brains process information and how we, as a society, organize and share it. Among these regularities, only Zipf's law has been explored in depth. Other basic properties, such as the existence of bursts of rare words in specific documents, have only been studied independently of each other and mainly by descriptive models. As a consequence, there is a lack of understanding of linguistic processes as complex emergent phenomena. Beyond Zipf's law for word frequencies, here we focus on burstiness, Heaps' law describing the sublinear growth of vocabulary size with the length of a document, and the topicality of document collections, which encode correlations within and across documents absent in random null models. We introduce and validate a generative model that explains the simultaneous emergence of all these patterns from simple rules. As a result, we find a connection between the bursty nature of rare words and the topical organization of texts and identify dynamic word ranking and memory across documents as key mechanisms explaining the non trivial organization of written text. Our research can have broad implications and practical applications in computer science, cognitive science and linguistics.
Maximum entropy principle and hydrodynamic models in statistical mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trovato, M.; Reggiani, L.
2012-01-01
This review presents the state of the art of the maximum entropy principle (MEP) in its classical and quantum (QMEP) formulation. Within the classical MEP we overview a general theory able to provide, in a dynamical context, the macroscopic relevant variables for carrier transport in the presence of electric fields of arbitrary strength. For the macroscopic variables the linearized maximum entropy approach is developed including full-band effects within a total energy scheme. Under spatially homogeneous conditions, we construct a closed set of hydrodynamic equations for the small-signal (dynamic) response of the macroscopic variables. The coupling between the driving field and the energy dissipation is analyzed quantitatively by using an arbitrary number of moments of the distribution function. Analogously, the theoretical approach is applied to many one-dimensional n + nn + submicron Si structures by using different band structure models, different doping profiles, different applied biases and is validated by comparing numerical calculations with ensemble Monte Carlo simulations and with available experimental data. Within the quantum MEP we introduce a quantum entropy functional of the reduced density matrix, the principle of quantum maximum entropy is then asserted as fundamental principle of quantum statistical mechanics. Accordingly, we have developed a comprehensive theoretical formalism to construct rigorously a closed quantum hydrodynamic transport within a Wigner function approach. The theory is formulated both in thermodynamic equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions, and the quantum contributions are obtained by only assuming that the Lagrange multipliers can be expanded in powers of ħ 2 , being ħ the reduced Planck constant. In particular, by using an arbitrary number of moments, we prove that: i) on a macroscopic scale all nonlocal effects, compatible with the uncertainty principle, are imputable to high-order spatial derivatives both of the
Statistical Clustering and Compositional Modeling of Iapetus VIMS Spectral Data
Pinilla-Alonso, N.; Roush, T. L.; Marzo, G.; Dalle Ore, C. M.; Cruikshank, D. P.
2009-12-01
It has long been known that the surfaces of Saturn's major satellites are predominantly icy objects [e.g. 1 and references therein]. Since 2004, these bodies have been the subject of observations by the Cassini-VIMS (Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) experiment [2]. Iapetus has the unique property that the hemisphere centered on the apex of its locked synchronous orbital motion around Saturn has a very low geometrical albedo of 2-6%, while the opposite hemisphere is about 10 times more reflective. The nature and origin of the dark material of Iapetus has remained a question since its discovery [3 and references therein]. The nature of this material and how it is distributed on the surface of this body, can shed new light into the knowledge of the Saturnian system. We apply statistical clustering [4] and theoretical modeling [5,6] to address the surface composition of Iapetus. The VIMS data evaluated were obtained during the second flyby of Iapetus, in September 2007. This close approach allowed VIMS to obtain spectra at relatively high spatial resolution, ~1-22 km/pixel. The data we study sampled the trailing hemisphere and part of the dark leading one. The statistical clustering [4] is used to identify statistically distinct spectra on Iapetus. The composition of these distinct spectra are evaluated using theoretical models [5,6]. We thank Allan Meyer for his help. This research was supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Ames Research Center, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA. [1] A, Coradini et al., 2009, Earth, Moon & Planets, 105, 289-310. [2] Brown et al., 2004, Space Science Reviews, 115, 111-168. [3] Cruikshank, D. et al Icarus, 2008, 193, 334-343. [4] Marzo, G. et al. 2008, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, E12, CiteID E12009. [5] Hapke, B. 1993, Theory of reflectance and emittance spectroscopy, Cambridge University Press. [6] Shkuratov, Y. et al. 1999, Icarus, 137, 235-246.
Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models
Durstewitz, Daniel
2017-01-01
This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering. Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...
Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2017-01-01
Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable
Statistics and scaling of turbulence in a spatially developing mixing layer at Reλ = 250
Attili, Antonio
2012-03-21
The turbulent flow originating from the interaction between two parallel streams with different velocities is studied by means of direct numerical simulation. Rather than the more common temporal evolving layer, a spatially evolving configuration, with perturbed laminar inlet conditions is considered. The streamwise evolution and the self-similar state of turbulence statistics are reported and compared to results available in the literature. The characteristics of the transitional region agree with those observed in other simulations and experiments of mixing layers originating from laminar inlets. The present results indicate that the transitional region depends strongly on the inlet flow. Conversely, the self-similar state of turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation agrees quantitatively with those in a temporal mixing layer developing from turbulent initial conditions [M. M. Rogers and R. D. Moser, “Direct simulation of a self-similar turbulent mixing layer,” Phys. Fluids6, 903 (1994)]. The statistical features of turbulence in the self-similar region have been analysed in terms of longitudinal velocity structure functions, and scaling exponents are estimated by applying the extended self-similarity concept. In the small scale range (60 < r/η < 250), the scaling exponents display the universal anomalous scaling observed in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The hypothesis of isotropy recovery holds in the turbulent mixing layer despite the presence of strong shear and large-scale structures, independently of the means of turbulence generation. At larger scales (r/η > 400), the mean shear and large coherent structures result in a significant deviation from predictions based on homogeneous isotropic turbulence theory. In this second scaling range, the numerical values of the exponents agree quantitatively with those reported for a variety of other flows characterized by strong shear, such as boundary layers, as well as channel and wake flows.
Statistics and scaling of turbulence in a spatially developing mixing layer at Reλ = 250
Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio
2012-01-01
The turbulent flow originating from the interaction between two parallel streams with different velocities is studied by means of direct numerical simulation. Rather than the more common temporal evolving layer, a spatially evolving configuration, with perturbed laminar inlet conditions is considered. The streamwise evolution and the self-similar state of turbulence statistics are reported and compared to results available in the literature. The characteristics of the transitional region agree with those observed in other simulations and experiments of mixing layers originating from laminar inlets. The present results indicate that the transitional region depends strongly on the inlet flow. Conversely, the self-similar state of turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation agrees quantitatively with those in a temporal mixing layer developing from turbulent initial conditions [M. M. Rogers and R. D. Moser, “Direct simulation of a self-similar turbulent mixing layer,” Phys. Fluids6, 903 (1994)]. The statistical features of turbulence in the self-similar region have been analysed in terms of longitudinal velocity structure functions, and scaling exponents are estimated by applying the extended self-similarity concept. In the small scale range (60 < r/η < 250), the scaling exponents display the universal anomalous scaling observed in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The hypothesis of isotropy recovery holds in the turbulent mixing layer despite the presence of strong shear and large-scale structures, independently of the means of turbulence generation. At larger scales (r/η > 400), the mean shear and large coherent structures result in a significant deviation from predictions based on homogeneous isotropic turbulence theory. In this second scaling range, the numerical values of the exponents agree quantitatively with those reported for a variety of other flows characterized by strong shear, such as boundary layers, as well as channel and wake flows.
Statistically Based Morphodynamic Modeling of Tracer Slowdown
Borhani, S.; Ghasemi, A.; Hill, K. M.; Viparelli, E.
2017-12-01
Tracer particles are used to study bedload transport in gravel-bed rivers. One of the advantages associated with using of tracer particles is that they allow for direct measures of the entrainment rates and their size distributions. The main issue in large scale studies with tracer particles is the difference between tracer stone short term and long term behavior. This difference is due to the fact that particles undergo vertical mixing or move to less active locations such as bars or even floodplains. For these reasons the average virtual velocity of tracer particle decreases in time, i.e. the tracer slowdown. In summary, tracer slowdown can have a significant impact on the estimation of bedload transport rate or long term dispersal of contaminated sediment. The vast majority of the morphodynamic models that account for the non-uniformity of the bed material (tracer and not tracer, in this case) are based on a discrete description of the alluvial deposit. The deposit is divided in two different regions; the active layer and the substrate. The active layer is a thin layer in the topmost part of the deposit whose particles can interact with the bed material transport. The substrate is the part of the deposit below the active layer. Due to the discrete representation of the alluvial deposit, active layer models are not able to reproduce tracer slowdown. In this study we try to model the slowdown of tracer particles with the continuous Parker-Paola-Leclair morphodynamic framework. This continuous, i.e. not layer-based, framework is based on a stochastic description of the temporal variation of bed surface elevation, and of the elevation specific particle entrainment and deposition. Particle entrainment rates are computed as a function of the flow and sediment characteristics, while particle deposition is estimated with a step length formulation. Here we present one of the first implementation of the continuum framework at laboratory scale, its validation against
Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia
2017-03-01
Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.
Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smacchia, Pietro; Amico, Luigi; Facchi, Paolo; Fazio, Rosario; Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio; Vedral, Vlatko
2011-01-01
We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.
Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smacchia, Pietro [SISSA - via Bonomea 265, I-34136, Trieste (Italy); Amico, Luigi [CNR-MATIS-IMM and Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia Universita di Catania, C/O ed. 10, viale Andrea Doria 6, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Facchi, Paolo [Dipartimento di Matematica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70125 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Fazio, Rosario [NEST, Scuola Normale Superiore and Istituto Nanoscienze - CNR, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio [Dipartimento di Fisica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Vedral, Vlatko [Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Department of Physics, National University of Singapore, 2 Science Drive 3, Singapore 117542 (Singapore); Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Oxford, OX1 3PU (United Kingdom)
2011-08-15
We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.
Infection dynamics on spatial small-world network models
Iotti, Bryan; Antonioni, Alberto; Bullock, Seth; Darabos, Christian; Tomassini, Marco; Giacobini, Mario
2017-11-01
The study of complex networks, and in particular of social networks, has mostly concentrated on relational networks, abstracting the distance between nodes. Spatial networks are, however, extremely relevant in our daily lives, and a large body of research exists to show that the distances between nodes greatly influence the cost and probability of establishing and maintaining a link. A random geometric graph (RGG) is the main type of synthetic network model used to mimic the statistical properties and behavior of many social networks. We propose a model, called REDS, that extends energy-constrained RGGs to account for the synergic effect of sharing the cost of a link with our neighbors, as is observed in real relational networks. We apply both the standard Watts-Strogatz rewiring procedure and another method that conserves the degree distribution of the network. The second technique was developed to eliminate unwanted forms of spatial correlation between the degree of nodes that are affected by rewiring, limiting the effect on other properties such as clustering and assortativity. We analyze both the statistical properties of these two network types and their epidemiological behavior when used as a substrate for a standard susceptible-infected-susceptible compartmental model. We consider and discuss the differences in properties and behavior between RGGs and REDS as rewiring increases and as infection parameters are changed. We report considerable differences both between the network types and, in the case of REDS, between the two rewiring schemes. We conclude that REDS represent, with the application of these rewiring mechanisms, extremely useful and interesting tools in the study of social and epidemiological phenomena in synthetic complex networks.
Spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya with spatially varying coefficients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elphas Okango
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease mapping has become popular in the field of statistics as a method to explain the spatial distribution of disease outcomes and as a tool to help design targeted intervention strategies. Most of these models however have been implemented with assumptions that may be limiting or altogether lead to less meaningful results and hence interpretations. Some of these assumptions include the linearity, stationarity and normality assumptions. Studies have shown that the linearity assumption is not necessarily true for all covariates. Age for example has been found to have a non-linear relationship with HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Other studies have made stationarity assumption in that one stimulus e.g. education, provokes the same response in all the regions under study and this is also quite restrictive. Responses to stimuli may vary from region to region due to aspects like culture, preferences and attitudes. Methods We perform a spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya, while relaxing these assumptions i.e. the linearity assumption by allowing the covariate age to have a non-linear effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence using the random walk model of order 2 and the stationarity assumption by allowing the rest of the covariates to vary spatially using the conditional autoregressive model. The women data used in this study were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS indicator survey where women aged 15–49 years were surveyed. A full Bayesian approach was used and the models were implemented in R-INLA software. Results Age was found to have a non-linear relationship with both HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and the spatially varying coefficient model provided a significantly better fit for HSV-2. Age-at first sex also had a greater effect on HSV-2 prevalence in the Coastal and some parts of North Eastern regions suggesting either early marriages or child prostitution. The effect of education on HIV prevalence among women was more
Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.
2006-01-01
1. Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2. Analyses were based o...
Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models
Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.
2003-01-01
This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling
Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad
The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....
Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers
Peng, Defen
2014-01-01
This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...
The spatial limitations of current neutral models of biodiversity.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rampal S Etienne
Full Text Available The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a 'fat-tailed' distribution. Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed.
Model for Atmospheric Propagation of Spatially Combined Laser Beams
2016-09-01
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS by Kum Leong Lee September...MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Kum Leong Lee 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND...BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS Kum Leong Lee
Petersson, K M; Nichols, T E; Poline, J B; Holmes, A P
1999-01-01
Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference. PMID:10466149
A Spatial Model of the Mere Exposure Effect.
Fink, Edward L.; And Others
1989-01-01
Uses a spatial model to examine the relationship between stimulus exposure, cognition, and affect. Notes that this model accounts for cognitive changes that a stimulus may acquire as a result of exposure. Concludes that the spatial model is useful for evaluating the mere exposure effect and that affective change does not require cognitive change.…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2005-01-01
For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees
Unemployment estimation: Spatial point referenced methods and models
Pereira, Soraia
2017-06-26
Portuguese Labor force survey, from 4th quarter of 2014 onwards, started geo-referencing the sampling units, namely the dwellings in which the surveys are carried. This opens new possibilities in analysing and estimating unemployment and its spatial distribution across any region. The labor force survey choose, according to an preestablished sampling criteria, a certain number of dwellings across the nation and survey the number of unemployed in these dwellings. Based on this survey, the National Statistical Institute of Portugal presently uses direct estimation methods to estimate the national unemployment figures. Recently, there has been increased interest in estimating these figures in smaller areas. Direct estimation methods, due to reduced sampling sizes in small areas, tend to produce fairly large sampling variations therefore model based methods, which tend to
A Model of Statistics Performance Based on Achievement Goal Theory.
Bandalos, Deborah L.; Finney, Sara J.; Geske, Jenenne A.
2003-01-01
Tests a model of statistics performance based on achievement goal theory. Both learning and performance goals affected achievement indirectly through study strategies, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Implications of these findings for teaching and learning statistics are discussed. (Contains 47 references, 3 tables, 3 figures, and 1 appendix.)…
Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel
2002-01-01
Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002
Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes
Bendjaballah, C.
2011-08-01
Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes have been analyzed from the counting and time interval statistics points of view. Based on the criterion of the reduced variance, it is seen that such processes exhibit nonclassical properties. The conditions for these processes to be treated as conditional Poisson processes are examined. Numerical simulations illustrate part of the theoretical calculations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2001-01-01
For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2000-01-01
For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1999-01-01
For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saubamea, B.
1998-12-01
This thesis presents a new method to measure the temperature of ultracold atoms from the spatial autocorrelation function of the atomic wave-packets. We thus determine the temperature of metastable helium-4 atoms cooled by velocity selective dark resonance, a method known to cool the atoms below the temperature related to the emission or the absorption of a single photon by an atom at rest, namely the recoil temperature. This cooling mechanism prepares each atom in a coherent superposition of two wave-packets with opposite mean momenta, which are initially superimposed and then drift apart. By measuring the temporal decay of their overlap, we have access to the Fourier transform of the momentum distribution of the atoms. Using this method, we can measure temperatures as low as 5 nK, 800 times as small as the recoil temperature. Moreover we study in detail the exact shape of the momentum distribution and compare the experimental results with two different theoretical approaches: a quantum Monte Carlo simulation and an analytical model based on Levy statistics. We compare the calculated line shape with the one deduced from simulations, and each theoretical model with experimental data. A very good agreement is found with each approach. We thus demonstrate the validity of the statistical model of sub-recoil cooling and give the first experimental evidence of some of its characteristics: the absence of steady-state, the self-similarity and the non Lorentzian shape of the momentum distribution of the cooled atoms. All these aspects are related to the non ergodicity of sub-recoil cooling. (author)
Spatial data modelling and maximum entropy theory
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Klimešová, Dana; Ocelíková, E.
2005-01-01
Roč. 51, č. 2 (2005), s. 80-83 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : spatial data classification * distribution function * error distribution Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information
A Monte Carlo-adjusted goodness-of-fit test for parametric models describing spatial point patterns
Dao, Ngocanh; Genton, Marc G.
2014-01-01
Assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for intricate parametric spatial point process models is important for many application fields. When the probability density of the statistic of the GOF test is intractable, a commonly used procedure is the Monte
Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications
Sedlmeier, Peter
1999-01-01
This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.
Wang, Shuangkun; Zuo, Long; Jiang, Tao; Peng, Peng; Chu, Shuilian; Xiao, Dan
2017-12-01
Objectives Cigarette smoking is an important risk factor of central nervous system diseases. However, the white matter (WM) integrity of early adulthood chronic smokers has not been attached enough importance to as it deserves, and the relationship between the chronic smoking effect and the WM is still unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate whole - brain WM microstructure of early adulthood smokers and explore the structural correlates of behaviorally relevant features of the disorder. Methods We compared multiple DTI-derived indices, including fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD) and radial diffusivity (RD), between early adulthood smokers (n = 19) and age-, education- and gender-matched controls (n = 23) using a whole-brain tract-based spatial statistics approach. We also explored the correlations of the mean DTI index values with pack-years and Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence. Results The smokers showed increased FA in left superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), left anterior corona radiate, left superior corona radiate, left posterior corona radiate, left external capsule (EC), left inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus and sagittal stratum (SS), and decreased RD in left SLF. There were significant negative correlations among the average FA in the left external capsule and pack-years in smokers. In addition, significant positive correlation was found between RD values in the left SLF and pack-years. Discussion These findings indicate that smokers show microstructural changes in several white-matter regions. The correlation between the cumulative effect and microstructural WM alternations suggests that WM properties may become the new biomarkers in practice.
Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models
Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis
2012-01-01
PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage
Some remarks on the statistical model of heavy ion collisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koch, V.
2003-01-01
This contribution is an attempt to assess what can be learned from the remarkable success of this statistical model in describing ratios of particle abundances in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions
Eigenfunction statistics for Anderson model with Hölder continuous ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Taramani, Chennai 600 113, India ... Anderson model; Hölder continuous measure; Poisson statistics. ...... [4] Combes J-M, Hislop P D and Klopp F, An optimal Wegner estimate and its application to.
Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model From Breakthrough Curve Data Alone
Sherman, Thomas; Fakhari, Abbas; Miller, Savannah; Singha, Kamini; Bolster, Diogo
2017-12-01
The spatial Markov model (SMM) is an upscaled Lagrangian model that effectively captures anomalous transport across a diverse range of hydrologic systems. The distinct feature of the SMM relative to other random walk models is that successive steps are correlated. To date, with some notable exceptions, the model has primarily been applied to data from high-resolution numerical simulations and correlation effects have been measured from simulated particle trajectories. In real systems such knowledge is practically unattainable and the best one might hope for is breakthrough curves (BTCs) at successive downstream locations. We introduce a novel methodology to quantify velocity correlation from BTC data alone. By discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and developing an inverse model, we estimate velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where detailed Lagrangian velocity statistics are unavailable. The proposed methodology is applied to two synthetic numerical problems, where we measure all details and thus test the veracity of the approach by comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Our results suggest that our estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and using the SMM with this estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Our methodology naturally allows for estimates of uncertainty by calculating lower and upper bounds of velocity correlation, enabling prediction of a range of BTCs. The measured BTCs fall within the range of predicted BTCs. This novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone is quite parsimonious, thereby widening the SMM's practical applicability.
A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trevisan, Luis A.; Mirez, Carlos
2013-01-01
We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sengupta, S.K.; Boyle, J.S.
1993-05-01
Variables describing atmospheric circulation and other climate parameters derived from various GCMs and obtained from observations can be represented on a spatio-temporal grid (lattice) structure. The primary objective of this paper is to explore existing as well as some new statistical methods to analyze such data structures for the purpose of model diagnostics and intercomparison from a statistical perspective. Among the several statistical methods considered here, a new method based on common principal components appears most promising for the purpose of intercomparison of spatio-temporal data structures arising in the task of model/model and model/data intercomparison. A complete strategy for such an intercomparison is outlined. The strategy includes two steps. First, the commonality of spatial structures in two (or more) fields is captured in the common principal vectors. Second, the corresponding principal components obtained as time series are then compared on the basis of similarities in their temporal evolution
Statistical models and NMR analysis of polymer microstructure
Statistical models can be used in conjunction with NMR spectroscopy to study polymer microstructure and polymerization mechanisms. Thus, Bernoullian, Markovian, and enantiomorphic-site models are well known. Many additional models have been formulated over the years for additional situations. Typica...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-01-01
For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2004-01-01
For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2000-01-01
For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products
Thiessen, Erik D
2017-01-05
Statistical learning has been studied in a variety of different tasks, including word segmentation, object identification, category learning, artificial grammar learning and serial reaction time tasks (e.g. Saffran et al. 1996 Science 274: , 1926-1928; Orban et al. 2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: , 2745-2750; Thiessen & Yee 2010 Child Development 81: , 1287-1303; Saffran 2002 Journal of Memory and Language 47: , 172-196; Misyak & Christiansen 2012 Language Learning 62: , 302-331). The difference among these tasks raises questions about whether they all depend on the same kinds of underlying processes and computations, or whether they are tapping into different underlying mechanisms. Prior theoretical approaches to statistical learning have often tried to explain or model learning in a single task. However, in many cases these approaches appear inadequate to explain performance in multiple tasks. For example, explaining word segmentation via the computation of sequential statistics (such as transitional probability) provides little insight into the nature of sensitivity to regularities among simultaneously presented features. In this article, we will present a formal computational approach that we believe is a good candidate to provide a unifying framework to explore and explain learning in a wide variety of statistical learning tasks. This framework suggests that statistical learning arises from a set of processes that are inherent in memory systems, including activation, interference, integration of information and forgetting (e.g. Perruchet & Vinter 1998 Journal of Memory and Language 39: , 246-263; Thiessen et al. 2013 Psychological Bulletin 139: , 792-814). From this perspective, statistical learning does not involve explicit computation of statistics, but rather the extraction of elements of the input into memory traces, and subsequent integration across those memory traces that emphasize consistent information (Thiessen and Pavlik
Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.
Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei
2013-01-01
Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.
Role of spatial inhomogenity in GPCR dimerisation predicted by receptor association-diffusion models
Deshpande, Sneha A.; Pawar, Aiswarya B.; Dighe, Anish; Athale, Chaitanya A.; Sengupta, Durba
2017-06-01
G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) association is an emerging paradigm with far reaching implications in the regulation of signalling pathways and therapeutic interventions. Recent super resolution microscopy studies have revealed that receptor dimer steady state exhibits sub-second dynamics. In particular the GPCRs, muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M1 (M1MR) and formyl peptide receptor (FPR), have been demonstrated to exhibit a fast association/dissociation kinetics, independent of ligand binding. In this work, we have developed a spatial kinetic Monte Carlo model to investigate receptor homo-dimerisation at a single receptor resolution. Experimentally measured association/dissociation kinetic parameters and diffusion coefficients were used as inputs to the model. To test the effect of membrane spatial heterogeneity on the simulated steady state, simulations were compared to experimental statistics of dimerisation. In the simplest case the receptors are assumed to be diffusing in a spatially homogeneous environment, while spatial heterogeneity is modelled to result from crowding, membrane micro-domains and cytoskeletal compartmentalisation or ‘corrals’. We show that a simple association-diffusion model is sufficient to reproduce M1MR association statistics, but fails to reproduce FPR statistics despite comparable kinetic constants. A parameter sensitivity analysis is required to reproduce the association statistics of FPR. The model reveals the complex interplay between cytoskeletal components and their influence on receptor association kinetics within the features of the membrane landscape. These results constitute an important step towards understanding the factors modulating GPCR organisation.
Snow cover and End of Summer Snowline statistics from a simple stochastic model
Petrelli, A.; Crouzy, B.; Perona, P.
2012-04-01
One essential parameter characterizing snow cover statistics is the End Of Summer Snowline (EOSS), which is also a good indicator of actual climatic trends in mountain regions. EOSS is usually modelled by means of spatially distributed physically based models, and typically require heavy parameterization. In this paper we validate the simple stochastic model proposed by Perona et al. (2007), by showing that the snow cover statistics and the position of EOSS can in principle be explained by only four essential (meteorological) parameters. Perona et al. (2007) proposed a model accounting for stochastic snow accumulation in the cold period, and deterministic melting dynamics in the warm period, and studied the statistical distribution of the snowdepth on the long term. By reworking the ensemble average of the steady state evolution equation we single out a relationship between the snowdepth statistics (including the position of EOSS) and the involved parameters. The validation of the established relationship is done using 50 years of field data from 73 Swiss stations located above 2000 m a.s.l. First an estimation of the meteorological parameters is made. Snow height data are used as a precipitation proxy, using temperature data to estimate SWE during the precipitation event. Thresholds are used both to separate accumulation from actual precipitation and wind transport phenomena, and to better assess summer melting rate, considered to be constant over the melting period according to the simplified model. First results show that data for most of the weather stations actually scales with the proposed relationship. This indicates that, on the long term, the effect of spatial and temporal noise masks most of the process detail so that minimalist models suffice to obtain reliable statistics. Future works will test the validity of this approach at different spatial scales, e.g., regional, continental and planetary. Reference: P. Perona, A. Porporato, and L. Ridolfi, "A
Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications
Stapleton, James H
2007-01-01
This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...
Statistical geological discrete fracture network model. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul; Simeonov, Assen; Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan
2007-11-01
. These models describe fracture intensity and size as a single range from borehole to outcrop scale; and - the combined outcrop scale and tectonic fault models (OSM+TFM), where separate distributions for size and intensity describe the fractures observed at outcrop scale (largely joints) and the features observed at regional scales (lineaments that are largely faults or deformation zones). Fracture intensity and fracture size are not rigidly coupled. The stochastic intensity model is build using power laws, and combines fracture intensity data from outcrops (P21) and boreholes (P10) to simultaneously match both data sets. Intensity statistics are presented for each fracture set in each domain, and the spatial variation of intensity described as a function of lithology or as a gamma distribution where possible. This report also describes the sources of uncertainty in the methodologies, data, and analyses used to build the version 2.2 geological DFN, and offers insight as to the potential magnitudes of their effects on downstream models. The outputs of the geological DFN modeling process are recommended parameters or statistical distributions describing fracture set orientations, radius sizes, volumetric intensities, spatial correlations and models, and other parameters necessary to build stochastic models (lithology and scaling corrections, termination matrices)
Statistical geological discrete fracture network model. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fox, Aaron; La Pointe, Paul [Golder Associates Inc (United States); Simeonov, Assen [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan; Oehman, Johan [Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden)
2007-11-15
. These models describe fracture intensity and size as a single range from borehole to outcrop scale; and - the combined outcrop scale and tectonic fault models (OSM+TFM), where separate distributions for size and intensity describe the fractures observed at outcrop scale (largely joints) and the features observed at regional scales (lineaments that are largely faults or deformation zones). Fracture intensity and fracture size are not rigidly coupled. The stochastic intensity model is build using power laws, and combines fracture intensity data from outcrops (P21) and boreholes (P10) to simultaneously match both data sets. Intensity statistics are presented for each fracture set in each domain, and the spatial variation of intensity described as a function of lithology or as a gamma distribution where possible. This report also describes the sources of uncertainty in the methodologies, data, and analyses used to build the version 2.2 geological DFN, and offers insight as to the potential magnitudes of their effects on downstream models. The outputs of the geological DFN modeling process are recommended parameters or statistical distributions describing fracture set orientations, radius sizes, volumetric intensities, spatial correlations and models, and other parameters necessary to build stochastic models (lithology and scaling corrections, termination matrices)
Horvath , E.A.; Fosnight, E.A.; Klingebiel, A.A.; Moore, D.G.; Stone, J.E.; Reybold, W.U.; Petersen, G.W.
1987-01-01
A methodology has been developed to create a spatial database by referencing digital elevation, Landsat multispectral scanner data, and digitized soil premap delineations of a number of adjacent 7.5-min quadrangle areas to a 30-m Universal Transverse Mercator projection. Slope and aspect transformations are calculated from elevation data and grouped according to field office specifications. An unsupervised classification is performed on a brightness and greenness transformation of the spectral data. The resulting spectral, slope, and aspect maps of each of the 7.5-min quadrangle areas are then plotted and submitted to the field office to be incorporated into the soil premapping stages of a soil survey. A tabular database is created from spatial data by generating descriptive statistics for each data layer within each soil premap delineation. The tabular data base is then entered into a data base management system to be accessed by the field office personnel during the soil survey and to be used for subsequent resource management decisions.Large amounts of data are collected and archived during resource inventories for public land management. Often these data are stored as stacks of maps or folders in a file system in someone's office, with the maps in a variety of formats, scales, and with various standards of accuracy depending on their purpose. This system of information storage and retrieval is cumbersome at best when several categories of information are needed simultaneously for analysis or as input to resource management models. Computers now provide the resource scientist with the opportunity to design increasingly complex models that require even more categories of resource-related information, thus compounding the problem.Recently there has been much emphasis on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) as an alternative method for map data archives and as a resource management tool. Considerable effort has been devoted to the generation of tabular
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diego Montenegro
Full Text Available BACKGROUND Chagas disease (CD, caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected human disease. It is endemic to the Americas and is estimated to have an economic impact, including lost productivity and disability, of 7 billion dollars per year on average. OBJECTIVES To assess vulnerability to vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi in domiciliary environments within an area undergoing domiciliary vector interruption of T. cruzi in Colombia. METHODS Multi-criteria decision analysis [preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE and geometrical analysis for interactive assistance (GAIA methods] and spatial statistics were performed on data from a socio-environmental questionnaire and an entomological survey. In the construction of multi-criteria descriptors, decision-making processes and indicators of five determinants of the CD vector pathway were summarily defined, including: (1 house indicator (HI; (2 triatominae indicator (TI; (3 host/reservoir indicator (Ho/RoI; (4 ecotope indicator (EI; and (5 socio-cultural indicator (S-CI. FINDINGS Determination of vulnerability to CD is mostly influenced by TI, with 44.96% of the total weight in the model, while the lowest contribution was from S-CI, with 7.15%. The five indicators comprise 17 indices, and include 78 of the original 104 priority criteria and variables. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods proved very efficient for prioritisation and quantitative categorisation of socio-environmental determinants and for better determining which criteria should be considered for interrupting the man-T. cruzi-vector relationship in endemic areas of the Americas. Through the analysis of spatial autocorrelation it is clear that there is a spatial dependence in establishing categories of vulnerability, therefore, the effect of neighbors’ setting (border areas on local values should be incorporated into disease management for establishing programs of surveillance and control of CD via vector
Montenegro, Diego; Cunha, Ana Paula da; Ladeia-Andrade, Simone; Vera, Mauricio; Pedroso, Marcel; Junqueira, Angela
2017-10-01
Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected human disease. It is endemic to the Americas and is estimated to have an economic impact, including lost productivity and disability, of 7 billion dollars per year on average. To assess vulnerability to vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi in domiciliary environments within an area undergoing domiciliary vector interruption of T. cruzi in Colombia. Multi-criteria decision analysis [preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and geometrical analysis for interactive assistance (GAIA) methods] and spatial statistics were performed on data from a socio-environmental questionnaire and an entomological survey. In the construction of multi-criteria descriptors, decision-making processes and indicators of five determinants of the CD vector pathway were summarily defined, including: (1) house indicator (HI); (2) triatominae indicator (TI); (3) host/reservoir indicator (Ho/RoI); (4) ecotope indicator (EI); and (5) socio-cultural indicator (S-CI). Determination of vulnerability to CD is mostly influenced by TI, with 44.96% of the total weight in the model, while the lowest contribution was from S-CI, with 7.15%. The five indicators comprise 17 indices, and include 78 of the original 104 priority criteria and variables. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods proved very efficient for prioritisation and quantitative categorisation of socio-environmental determinants and for better determining which criteria should be considered for interrupting the man-T. cruzi-vector relationship in endemic areas of the Americas. Through the analysis of spatial autocorrelation it is clear that there is a spatial dependence in establishing categories of vulnerability, therefore, the effect of neighbors' setting (border areas) on local values should be incorporated into disease management for establishing programs of surveillance and control of CD via vector. The study model proposed here is flexible and
Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance
Wilson, T.L.; Odei, J.B.; Hooten, M.B.; Edwards, T.C.
2010-01-01
Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.
Modeling spatial processes with unknown extremal dependence class
Huser, Raphaë l G.; Wadsworth, Jennifer L.
2017-01-01
Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models
Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.
Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M
2015-12-01
Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes
Vettori, Sabrina
2017-01-01
The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing
Parameterizing the Spatial Markov Model from Breakthrough Curve Data Alone
Sherman, T.; Bolster, D.; Fakhari, A.; Miller, S.; Singha, K.
2017-12-01
The spatial Markov model (SMM) uses a correlated random walk and has been shown to effectively capture anomalous transport in porous media systems; in the SMM, particles' future trajectories are correlated to their current velocity. It is common practice to use a priori Lagrangian velocity statistics obtained from high resolution simulations to determine a distribution of transition probabilities (correlation) between velocity classes that govern predicted transport behavior; however, this approach is computationally cumbersome. Here, we introduce a methodology to quantify velocity correlation from Breakthrough (BTC) curve data alone; discretizing two measured BTCs into a set of arrival times and reverse engineering the rules of the SMM allows for prediction of velocity correlation, thereby enabling parameterization of the SMM in studies where Lagrangian velocity statistics are not available. The introduced methodology is applied to estimate velocity correlation from BTCs measured in high resolution simulations, thus allowing for a comparison of estimated parameters with known simulated values. Results show 1) estimated transition probabilities agree with simulated values and 2) using the SMM with estimated parameterization accurately predicts BTCs downstream. Additionally, we include uncertainty measurements by calculating lower and upper estimates of velocity correlation, which allow for prediction of a range of BTCs. The simulated BTCs fall in the range of predicted BTCs. This research proposes a novel method to parameterize the SMM from BTC data alone, thereby reducing the SMM's computational costs and widening its applicability.
Chemical library subset selection algorithms: a unified derivation using spatial statistics.
Hamprecht, Fred A; Thiel, Walter; van Gunsteren, Wilfred F
2002-01-01
If similar compounds have similar activity, rational subset selection becomes superior to random selection in screening for pharmacological lead discovery programs. Traditional approaches to this experimental design problem fall into two classes: (i) a linear or quadratic response function is assumed (ii) some space filling criterion is optimized. The assumptions underlying the first approach are clear but not always defendable; the second approach yields more intuitive designs but lacks a clear theoretical foundation. We model activity in a bioassay as realization of a stochastic process and use the best linear unbiased estimator to construct spatial sampling designs that optimize the integrated mean square prediction error, the maximum mean square prediction error, or the entropy. We argue that our approach constitutes a unifying framework encompassing most proposed techniques as limiting cases and sheds light on their underlying assumptions. In particular, vector quantization is obtained, in dimensions up to eight, in the limiting case of very smooth response surfaces for the integrated mean square error criterion. Closest packing is obtained for very rough surfaces under the integrated mean square error and entropy criteria. We suggest to use either the integrated mean square prediction error or the entropy as optimization criteria rather than approximations thereof and propose a scheme for direct iterative minimization of the integrated mean square prediction error. Finally, we discuss how the quality of chemical descriptors manifests itself and clarify the assumptions underlying the selection of diverse or representative subsets.
Modeling the spatial reach of the LFP
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindén, Henrik; Tetzlaff, Tom; Potjans, Tobias C
2011-01-01
The local field potential (LFP) reflects activity of many neurons in the vicinity of the recording electrode and is therefore useful for studying local network dynamics. Much of the nature of the LFP is, however, still unknown. There are, for instance, contradicting reports on the spatial extent ...
Spatial modeling of potential woody biomass flow
Woodam Chung; Nathaniel Anderson
2012-01-01
The flow of woody biomass to end users is determined by economic factors, especially the amount available across a landscape and delivery costs of bioenergy facilities. The objective of this study develop methodology to quantify landscape-level stocks and potential biomass flows using the currently available spatial database road network analysis tool. We applied this...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kamyar Mansori
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The Besag-York-Mollié (BYM model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05. The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53, living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96, not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94 and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68 were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range and mean (standard deviation values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01 and 1.05 (1.31, respectively. Conclusions Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in atrisk areas.
Chonggang Xu; Hong S. He; Yuanman Hu; Yu Chang; Xiuzhen Li; Rencang Bu
2005-01-01
Geostatistical stochastic simulation is always combined with Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in spatial model simulations. However, due to the relatively long running time of spatially explicit forest models as a result of their complexity, it is always infeasible to generate hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Thus, it is of great...
Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software
West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T
2006-01-01
Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo
Speech emotion recognition based on statistical pitch model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WANG Zhiping; ZHAO Li; ZOU Cairong
2006-01-01
A modified Parzen-window method, which keep high resolution in low frequencies and keep smoothness in high frequencies, is proposed to obtain statistical model. Then, a gender classification method utilizing the statistical model is proposed, which have a 98% accuracy of gender classification while long sentence is dealt with. By separation the male voice and female voice, the mean and standard deviation of speech training samples with different emotion are used to create the corresponding emotion models. Then the Bhattacharyya distance between the test sample and statistical models of pitch, are utilized for emotion recognition in speech.The normalization of pitch for the male voice and female voice are also considered, in order to illustrate them into a uniform space. Finally, the speech emotion recognition experiment based on K Nearest Neighbor shows that, the correct rate of 81% is achieved, where it is only 73.85%if the traditional parameters are utilized.
Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market
Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin
2016-11-01
A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.
Adaptive Maneuvering Frequency Method of Current Statistical Model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wei Sun; Yongjian Yang
2017-01-01
Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.
Havens, Scott; Marks, Danny; Kormos, Patrick; Hedrick, Andrew
2017-12-01
In the Western US and many mountainous regions of the world, critical water resources and climate conditions are difficult to monitor because the observation network is generally very sparse. The critical resource from the mountain snowpack is water flowing into streams and reservoirs that will provide for irrigation, flood control, power generation, and ecosystem services. Water supply forecasting in a rapidly changing climate has become increasingly difficult because of non-stationary conditions. In response, operational water supply managers have begun to move from statistical techniques towards the use of physically based models. As we begin to transition physically based models from research to operational use, we must address the most difficult and time-consuming aspect of model initiation: the need for robust methods to develop and distribute the input forcing data. In this paper, we present a new open source framework, the Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF), which automates and simplifies the common forcing data distribution methods. It is computationally efficient and can be implemented for both research and operational applications. We present an example of how SMRF is able to generate all of the forcing data required to a run physically based snow model at 50-100 m resolution over regions of 1000-7000 km2. The approach has been successfully applied in real time and historical applications for both the Boise River Basin in Idaho, USA and the Tuolumne River Basin in California, USA. These applications use meteorological station measurements and numerical weather prediction model outputs as input. SMRF has significantly streamlined the modeling workflow, decreased model set up time from weeks to days, and made near real-time application of a physically based snow model possible.
Modelling diversity in building occupant behaviour: a novel statistical approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Haldi, Frédéric; Calì, Davide; Andersen, Rune Korsholm
2016-01-01
We propose an advanced modelling framework to predict the scope and effects of behavioural diversity regarding building occupant actions on window openings, shading devices and lighting. We develop a statistical approach based on generalised linear mixed models to account for the longitudinal nat...
A classical statistical model of heavy ion collisions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmidt, R.; Teichert, J.
1980-01-01
The use of the computer code TRAJEC which represents the numerical realization of a classical statistical model for heavy ion collisions is described. The code calculates the results of a classical friction model as well as various multi-differential cross sections for heavy ion collisions. INPUT and OUTPUT information of the code are described. Two examples of data sets are given [ru
On an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bilic, N.; Dadic, I.; Martinis, M.
1978-01-01
Starting from the density of states of an ideal Bose-Einstein gas, an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics has been formulated. The transition to continuum is based on the Touschek invariant measure. It has been shown that in this model average multiplicity increases logarithmically with total energy, while the inclusive distribution shows ln s violation of scaling. (author)
Kwon, O.; Kim, W.; Kim, J.
2017-12-01
Recently construction of subsea tunnel has been increased globally. For safe construction of subsea tunnel, identifying the geological structure including fault at design and construction stage is more than important. Then unlike the tunnel in land, it's very difficult to obtain the data on geological structure because of the limit in geological survey. This study is intended to challenge such difficulties in a way of developing the technology to identify the geological structure of seabed automatically by using echo sounding data. When investigation a potential site for a deep subsea tunnel, there is the technical and economical limit with borehole of geophysical investigation. On the contrary, echo sounding data is easily obtainable while information reliability is higher comparing to above approaches. This study is aimed at developing the algorithm that identifies the large scale of geological structure of seabed using geostatic approach. This study is based on theory of structural geology that topographic features indicate geological structure. Basic concept of algorithm is outlined as follows; (1) convert the seabed topography to the grid data using echo sounding data, (2) apply the moving window in optimal size to the grid data, (3) estimate the spatial statistics of the grid data in the window area, (4) set the percentile standard of spatial statistics, (5) display the values satisfying the standard on the map, (6) visualize the geological structure on the map. The important elements in this study include optimal size of moving window, kinds of optimal spatial statistics and determination of optimal percentile standard. To determine such optimal elements, a numerous simulations were implemented. Eventually, user program based on R was developed using optimal analysis algorithm. The user program was designed to identify the variations of various spatial statistics. It leads to easy analysis of geological structure depending on variation of spatial statistics
Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods
Mantovan, Pietro
2010-01-01
The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici
. Redundancy and blocking in the spatial domain: A connectionist model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I. P. L. Mc Laren
2002-01-01
Full Text Available How can the observations of spatial blocking (Rodrigo, Chamizo, McLaren & Mackintosh, 1997 and cue redundancy (OKeefe and Conway, 1978 be reconciled within the framework provided by an error-correcting, connectionist account of spatial navigation? I show that an implementation of McLarens (1995 better beta model can serve this purpose, and examine some of the implications for spatial learning and memory.
Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)
2012-01-15
Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).
Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.
2015-09-01
The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.
A scan statistic for continuous data based on the normal probability model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huang Lan
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Temporal, spatial and space-time scan statistics are commonly used to detect and evaluate the statistical significance of temporal and/or geographical disease clusters, without any prior assumptions on the location, time period or size of those clusters. Scan statistics are mostly used for count data, such as disease incidence or mortality. Sometimes there is an interest in looking for clusters with respect to a continuous variable, such as lead levels in children or low birth weight. For such continuous data, we present a scan statistic where the likelihood is calculated using the the normal probability model. It may also be used for other distributions, while still maintaining the correct alpha level. In an application of the new method, we look for geographical clusters of low birth weight in New York City.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng-Xiang Wang
2007-02-01
Full Text Available The performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO systems is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal correlation properties of the underlying MIMO channels. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal correlation characteristics of the spatial channel model (SCM in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP and the Kronecker-based stochastic model (KBSM at three levels, namely, the cluster level, link level, and system level. The KBSM has both the spatial separability and spatial-temporal separability at all the three levels. The spatial-temporal separability is observed for the SCM only at the system level, but not at the cluster and link levels. The SCM shows the spatial separability at the link and system levels, but not at the cluster level since its spatial correlation is related to the joint distribution of the angle of arrival (AoA and angle of departure (AoD. The KBSM with the Gaussian-shaped power azimuth spectrum (PAS is found to fit best the 3GPP SCM in terms of the spatial correlations. Despite its simplicity and analytical tractability, the KBSM is restricted to model only the average spatial-temporal behavior of MIMO channels. The SCM provides more insights of the variations of different MIMO channel realizations, but the implementation complexity is relatively high.
Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Blume
2012-07-01
Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.
Spatial Uncertainty Model for Visual Features Using a Kinect™ Sensor
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jae-Han Park
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.
Spatial uncertainty model for visual features using a Kinect™ sensor.
Park, Jae-Han; Shin, Yong-Deuk; Bae, Ji-Hun; Baeg, Moon-Hong
2012-01-01
This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.
Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.
1999-01-01
A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made
Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)
2012-09-01
Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.
Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.
Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis
2012-09-01
To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Shell model in large spaces and statistical spectroscopy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kota, V.K.B.
1996-01-01
For many nuclear structure problems of current interest it is essential to deal with shell model in large spaces. For this, three different approaches are now in use and two of them are: (i) the conventional shell model diagonalization approach but taking into account new advances in computer technology; (ii) the shell model Monte Carlo method. A brief overview of these two methods is given. Large space shell model studies raise fundamental questions regarding the information content of the shell model spectrum of complex nuclei. This led to the third approach- the statistical spectroscopy methods. The principles of statistical spectroscopy have their basis in nuclear quantum chaos and they are described (which are substantiated by large scale shell model calculations) in some detail. (author)
Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model
Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan
2016-01-01
In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...
A spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model: Theory and evidence
Fischer, Manfred M.
2009-01-01
This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system ...
Spatial Modeling of Deforestation in FMU of Poigar, North Sulawesi
Ahmad, Afandi; Saleh, Muhammad Buce; Rusolono, Teddy
2016-01-01
Forest is a part of the ecosystem that provides environmental services. Deforestation may decrease forest function in an ecosystem. This study aims to build a spatial model of deforestation in a forest management unit (FMU) of Poigar. Deforestation analysis carried out by analyze the change of forest cover into non-forest cover with post classification comparison technique. Driving forces of deforestation carried out by spatial modeling using binary logistic regression models (LRM). Result of...
A model relating Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity correlations
Cholemari, Murali R.; Arakeri, Jaywant H.
2006-03-01
In this paper we propose a model to relate Eulerian spatial and temporal velocity autocorrelations in homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulence. We model the decorrelation as the eddies of various scales becoming decorrelated. This enables us to connect the spatial and temporal separations required for a certain decorrelation through the ‘eddy scale’. Given either the spatial or the temporal velocity correlation, we obtain the ‘eddy scale’ and the rate at which the decorrelation proceeds. This leads to a spatial separation from the temporal correlation and a temporal separation from the spatial correlation, at any given value of the correlation relating the two correlations. We test the model using experimental data from a stationary axisymmetric turbulent flow with homogeneity along the axis.
Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute
2017-01-01
Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...
Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.
Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F
2014-09-01
Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
Statistical Model of the 2001 Czech Census for Interactive Presentation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Grim, Jiří; Hora, Jan; Boček, Pavel; Somol, Petr; Pudil, Pavel
Vol. 26, č. 4 (2010), s. 1-23 ISSN 0282-423X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Interactive statistical model * census data presentation * distribution mixtures * data modeling * EM algorithm * incomplete data * data reproduction accuracy * data mining Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.492, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/RO/grim-0350513.pdf
The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriela OPAIT
2014-11-01
Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.
Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...
EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.
Hervind, Widyaningsih, Y.
2017-07-01
Concurrent infection with multiple infectious agents may occur in one patient, it appears frequently in dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and typhoid fever. This paper depicted association between DHF and typhoid based on spatial point of view. Since paucity of data regarding dengue and typhoid co-infection, data that be used are the number of patients of those diseases in every district (kecamatan) in Jakarta in 2014 and 2015 obtained from Jakarta surveillance website. Poisson spatial scan statistics is used to detect DHF and typhoid hotspots area district in Jakarta separately. After obtain the hotspot, Fisher's exact test is applied to validate association between those two diseases' hotspot. The result exhibit hotspots of DHF and typhoid are located around central Jakarta. The further analysis used Poisson space-time scan statistics to reveal the hotspot in term of spatial and time. DHF and typhoid fever more likely occurr from January until May in the area which is relatively similar with pure spatial result. Preventive action could be done especially in the hotspot areas and it is required further study to observe the causes based on characteristics of the hotspot area.
An API for Integrating Spatial Context Models with Spatial Reasoning Algorithms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun
2006-01-01
The integration of context-aware applications with spatial context models is often done using a common query language. However, algorithms that estimate and reason about spatial context information can benefit from a tighter integration. An object-oriented API makes such integration possible...... and can help reduce the complexity of algorithms making them easier to maintain and develop. This paper propose an object-oriented API for context models of the physical environment and extensions to a location modeling approach called geometric space trees for it to provide adequate support for location...... modeling. The utility of the API is evaluated in several real-world cases from an indoor location system, and spans several types of spatial reasoning algorithms....
Zikou, Anastasia K; Xydis, Vasileios G; Astrakas, Loukas G; Nakou, Iliada; Tzarouchi, Loukia C; Tzoufi, Meropi; Argyropoulou, Maria I
2016-07-01
There is evidence of microstructural changes in normal-appearing white matter of patients with tuberous sclerosis complex. To evaluate major white matter tracts in children with tuberous sclerosis complex using tract-based spatial statistics diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) analysis. Eight children (mean age ± standard deviation: 8.5 ± 5.5 years) with an established diagnosis of tuberous sclerosis complex and 8 age-matched controls were studied. The imaging protocol consisted of T1-weighted high-resolution 3-D spoiled gradient-echo sequence and a spin-echo, echo-planar diffusion-weighted sequence. Differences in the diffusion indices were evaluated using tract-based spatial statistics. Tract-based spatial statistics showed increased axial diffusivity in the children with tuberous sclerosis complex in the superior and anterior corona radiata, the superior longitudinal fascicle, the inferior fronto-occipital fascicle, the uncinate fascicle and the anterior thalamic radiation. No significant differences were observed in fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity and radial diffusivity between patients and control subjects. No difference was found in the diffusion indices between the baseline and follow-up examination in the patient group. Patients with tuberous sclerosis complex have increased axial diffusivity in major white matter tracts, probably related to reduced axonal integrity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zikou, Anastasia K.; Xydis, Vasileios G.; Tzarouchi, Loukia C.; Argyropoulou, Maria I.; Astrakas, Loukas G.; Nakou, Iliada; Tzoufi, Meropi
2016-01-01
There is evidence of microstructural changes in normal-appearing white matter of patients with tuberous sclerosis complex. To evaluate major white matter tracts in children with tuberous sclerosis complex using tract-based spatial statistics diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) analysis. Eight children (mean age ± standard deviation: 8.5 ± 5.5 years) with an established diagnosis of tuberous sclerosis complex and 8 age-matched controls were studied. The imaging protocol consisted of T1-weighted high-resolution 3-D spoiled gradient-echo sequence and a spin-echo, echo-planar diffusion-weighted sequence. Differences in the diffusion indices were evaluated using tract-based spatial statistics. Tract-based spatial statistics showed increased axial diffusivity in the children with tuberous sclerosis complex in the superior and anterior corona radiata, the superior longitudinal fascicle, the inferior fronto-occipital fascicle, the uncinate fascicle and the anterior thalamic radiation. No significant differences were observed in fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity and radial diffusivity between patients and control subjects. No difference was found in the diffusion indices between the baseline and follow-up examination in the patient group. Patients with tuberous sclerosis complex have increased axial diffusivity in major white matter tracts, probably related to reduced axonal integrity. (orig.)
Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eberhardt, L L
1976-01-01
In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.
Analyzing sickness absence with statistical models for survival data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Karl Bang; Andersen, Per Kragh; Smith-Hansen, Lars
2007-01-01
OBJECTIVES: Sickness absence is the outcome in many epidemiologic studies and is often based on summary measures such as the number of sickness absences per year. In this study the use of modern statistical methods was examined by making better use of the available information. Since sickness...... absence data deal with events occurring over time, the use of statistical models for survival data has been reviewed, and the use of frailty models has been proposed for the analysis of such data. METHODS: Three methods for analyzing data on sickness absences were compared using a simulation study...... involving the following: (i) Poisson regression using a single outcome variable (number of sickness absences), (ii) analysis of time to first event using the Cox proportional hazards model, and (iii) frailty models, which are random effects proportional hazards models. Data from a study of the relation...
Humans make efficient use of natural image statistics when performing spatial interpolation.
D'Antona, Anthony D; Perry, Jeffrey S; Geisler, Wilson S
2013-12-16
Visual systems learn through evolution and experience over the lifespan to exploit the statistical structure of natural images when performing visual tasks. Understanding which aspects of this statistical structure are incorporated into the human nervous system is a fundamental goal in vision science. To address this goal, we measured human ability to estimate the intensity of missing image pixels in natural images. Human estimation accuracy is compared with various simple heuristics (e.g., local mean) and with optimal observers that have nearly complete knowledge of the local statistical structure of natural images. Human estimates are more accurate than those of simple heuristics, and they match the performance of an optimal observer that knows the local statistical structure of relative intensities (contrasts). This optimal observer predicts the detailed pattern of human estimation errors and hence the results place strong constraints on the underlying neural mechanisms. However, humans do not reach the performance of an optimal observer that knows the local statistical structure of the absolute intensities, which reflect both local relative intensities and local mean intensity. As predicted from a statistical analysis of natural images, human estimation accuracy is negligibly improved by expanding the context from a local patch to the whole image. Our results demonstrate that the human visual system exploits efficiently the statistical structure of natural images.
A Review of Modeling Bioelectrochemical Systems: Engineering and Statistical Aspects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuai Luo
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Bioelectrochemical systems (BES are promising technologies to convert organic compounds in wastewater to electrical energy through a series of complex physical-chemical, biological and electrochemical processes. Representative BES such as microbial fuel cells (MFCs have been studied and advanced for energy recovery. Substantial experimental and modeling efforts have been made for investigating the processes involved in electricity generation toward the improvement of the BES performance for practical applications. However, there are many parameters that will potentially affect these processes, thereby making the optimization of system performance hard to be achieved. Mathematical models, including engineering models and statistical models, are powerful tools to help understand the interactions among the parameters in BES and perform optimization of BES configuration/operation. This review paper aims to introduce and discuss the recent developments of BES modeling from engineering and statistical aspects, including analysis on the model structure, description of application cases and sensitivity analysis of various parameters. It is expected to serves as a compass for integrating the engineering and statistical modeling strategies to improve model accuracy for BES development.
Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*
Castruccio, Stefano
2014-03-01
The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.
New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.
Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro
2018-05-17
This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lawson, Andrew
2013-01-01
Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lawson, Andrew
2013-01-01
.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...
Simple classical model for Fano statistics in radiation detectors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jordan, David V. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)], E-mail: David.Jordan@pnl.gov; Renholds, Andrea S.; Jaffe, John E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Rene Corrales, L.; Peurrung, Anthony J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)
2008-02-01
A simple classical model that captures the essential statistics of energy partitioning processes involved in the creation of information carriers (ICs) in radiation detectors is presented. The model pictures IC formation from a fixed amount of deposited energy in terms of the statistically analogous process of successively sampling water from a large, finite-volume container ('bathtub') with a small dipping implement ('shot or whiskey glass'). The model exhibits sub-Poisson variance in the distribution of the number of ICs generated (the 'Fano effect'). Elementary statistical analysis of the model clarifies the role of energy conservation in producing the Fano effect and yields Fano's prescription for computing the relative variance of the IC number distribution in terms of the mean and variance of the underlying, single-IC energy distribution. The partitioning model is applied to the development of the impact ionization cascade in semiconductor radiation detectors. It is shown that, in tandem with simple assumptions regarding the distribution of energies required to create an (electron, hole) pair, the model yields an energy-independent Fano factor of 0.083, in accord with the lower end of the range of literature values reported for silicon and high-purity germanium. The utility of this simple picture as a diagnostic tool for guiding or constraining more detailed, 'microscopic' physical models of detector material response to ionizing radiation is discussed.
Statistics for Time-Series Spatial Data: Applying Survival Analysis to Study Land-Use Change
Wang, Ninghua Nathan
2013-01-01
Traditional spatial analysis and data mining methods fall short of extracting temporal information from data. This inability makes their use difficult to study changes and the associated mechanisms of many geographic phenomena of interest, for example, land-use. On the other hand, the growing availability of land-change data over multiple time…
A spatial statistical analysis of cork oak competition in two Portuguese silvopastoral systems
Paulo, M.J.; Stein, A.; Tomé, M.
2002-01-01
This paper considers competition among cork oaks (Quercus suber L.) at three plots in two representative Portuguese stands. It uses spatial point pattern functions to describe densities and quantify differences among stands. Relations between cork oak characteristics and indices measuring intertree
Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il; Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun
2012-01-01
The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.
Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il [School of Dentistry, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun [Division of Multimedia Engineering, Seoul Women' s University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2012-09-15
The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.
Testing spatial heterogeneity with stock assessment models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jardim, Ernesto; Eero, Margit; Silva, Alexandra
2018-01-01
sub-populations and applied to two case studies, North Sea cod (Gadus morua) and Northeast Atlantic sardine (Sardina pilchardus). Considering that the biological components of a population can be partitioned into discrete spatial units, we extended this idea into a property of additivity of sub......, the better the diffusion process will be detected. On the other hand it showed that weak to moderate diffusion processes are not easy to identify and large differences between sub-populations productivities may be confounded with weak diffusion processes. The application to North Sea cod and Atlantic sardine...... exemplified how much insight can be gained. In both cases the results obtained were sufficiently robust to support the regional analysis....
Statistical sampling and modelling for cork oak and eucalyptus stands
Paulo, M.J.
2002-01-01
This thesis focuses on the use of modern statistical methods to solve problems on sampling, optimal cutting time and agricultural modelling in Portuguese cork oak and eucalyptus stands. The results are contained in five chapters that have been submitted for publication
Two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and field theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koberle, R.
1980-01-01
Several features of two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and Field theory, such as, lattice quantum chromodynamics, Z(N), Gross-Neveu and CP N-1 are discussed. The problems of confinement and dynamical mass generation are also analyzed. (L.C.) [pt
Statistical Modeling of Energy Production by Photovoltaic Farms
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Brabec, Marek; Pelikán, Emil; Krč, Pavel; Eben, Kryštof; Musílek, P.
2011-01-01
Roč. 5, č. 9 (2011), s. 785-793 ISSN 1934-8975 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : electrical energy * solar energy * numerical weather prediction model * nonparametric regression * beta regression Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
Model selection for contingency tables with algebraic statistics
Krampe, A.; Kuhnt, S.; Gibilisco, P.; Riccimagno, E.; Rogantin, M.P.; Wynn, H.P.
2009-01-01
Goodness-of-fit tests based on chi-square approximations are commonly used in the analysis of contingency tables. Results from algebraic statistics combined with MCMC methods provide alternatives to the chi-square approximation. However, within a model selection procedure usually a large number of
Syntactic discriminative language model rerankers for statistical machine translation
Carter, S.; Monz, C.
2011-01-01
This article describes a method that successfully exploits syntactic features for n-best translation candidate reranking using perceptrons. We motivate the utility of syntax by demonstrating the superior performance of parsers over n-gram language models in differentiating between Statistical
Using statistical compatibility to derive advanced probabilistic fatigue models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Fernández-Canteli, A.; Castillo, E.; López-Aenlle, M.; Seitl, Stanislav
2010-01-01
Roč. 2, č. 1 (2010), s. 1131-1140 E-ISSN 1877-7058. [Fatigue 2010. Praha, 06.06.2010-11.06.2010] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : Fatigue models * Statistical compatibility * Functional equations Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics
Statistical properties of the nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dias, H.; Hussein, M.S.; Oliveira, N.A. de
1986-01-01
The statistical properties of realistic nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian are investigated in sd-shell nuclei. The probability distribution of the basic-vector amplitude is calculated and compared with the Porter-Thomas distribution. Relevance of the results to the calculation of the giant resonance mixing parameter is pointed out. (Author) [pt
Statistical shape model with random walks for inner ear segmentation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pujadas, Esmeralda Ruiz; Kjer, Hans Martin; Piella, Gemma
2016-01-01
is required. We propose a new framework for segmentation of micro-CT cochlear images using random walks combined with a statistical shape model (SSM). The SSM allows us to constrain the less contrasted areas and ensures valid inner ear shape outputs. Additionally, a topology preservation method is proposed...
Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications
Clark, James S
2006-01-01
New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.
A Statistical Model for the Estimation of Natural Gas Consumption
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Vondráček, Jiří; Pelikán, Emil; Konár, Ondřej; Čermáková, Jana; Eben, Kryštof; Malý, Marek; Brabec, Marek
2008-01-01
Roč. 85, c. 5 (2008), s. 362-370 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : nonlinear regression * gas consumption modeling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.371, year: 2008
Statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement
Sun, Wenjing; Sun, Jinqiu; Zhang, Yanning; Li, Haisen
2016-03-01
Photometric measurement is an important way to identify the space debris, but the present methods of photometric measurement have many constraints on star image and need complex image processing. Aiming at the problems, a statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement is proposed based on the global consistency of the star image, and the statistical information of star images is used to eliminate the measurement noises. First, the known stars on the star image are divided into training stars and testing stars. Then, the training stars are selected as the least squares fitting parameters to construct the photometric measurement model, and the testing stars are used to calculate the measurement accuracy of the photometric measurement model. Experimental results show that, the accuracy of the proposed photometric measurement model is about 0.1 magnitudes.
Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications
1988-01-01
In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.
Statistical models describing the energy signature of buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Thavlov, Anders
2010-01-01
Approximately one third of the primary energy production in Denmark is used for heating in buildings. Therefore efforts to accurately describe and improve energy performance of the building mass are very important. For this purpose statistical models describing the energy signature of a building, i...... or varying energy prices. The paper will give an overview of statistical methods and applied models based on experiments carried out in FlexHouse, which is an experimental building in SYSLAB, Risø DTU. The models are of different complexity and can provide estimates of physical quantities such as UA......-values, time constants of the building, and other parameters related to the heat dynamics. A method for selecting the most appropriate model for a given building is outlined and finally a perspective of the applications is given. Aknowledgements to the Danish Energy Saving Trust and the Interreg IV ``Vind i...
Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.
2004-01-01
A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements
Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy
2014-10-01
The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.
On Angular Sampling Methods for 3-D Spatial Channel Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fan, Wei; Jämsä, Tommi; Nielsen, Jesper Ødum
2015-01-01
This paper discusses generating three dimensional (3D) spatial channel models with emphasis on the angular sampling methods. Three angular sampling methods, i.e. modified uniform power sampling, modified uniform angular sampling, and random pairing methods are proposed and investigated in detail....... The random pairing method, which uses only twenty sinusoids in the ray-based model for generating the channels, presents good results if the spatial channel cluster is with a small elevation angle spread. For spatial clusters with large elevation angle spreads, however, the random pairing method would fail...... and the other two methods should be considered....
Jovicich, Jorge; Marizzoni, Moira; Bosch, Beatriz; Bartrés-Faz, David; Arnold, Jennifer; Benninghoff, Jens; Wiltfang, Jens; Roccatagliata, Luca; Picco, Agnese; Nobili, Flavio; Blin, Oliver; Bombois, Stephanie; Lopes, Renaud; Bordet, Régis; Chanoine, Valérie; Ranjeva, Jean-Philippe; Didic, Mira; Gros-Dagnac, Hélène; Payoux, Pierre; Zoccatelli, Giada; Alessandrini, Franco; Beltramello, Alberto; Bargalló, Núria; Ferretti, Antonio; Caulo, Massimo; Aiello, Marco; Ragucci, Monica; Soricelli, Andrea; Salvadori, Nicola; Tarducci, Roberto; Floridi, Piero; Tsolaki, Magda; Constantinidis, Manos; Drevelegas, Antonios; Rossini, Paolo Maria; Marra, Camillo; Otto, Josephin; Reiss-Zimmermann, Martin; Hoffmann, Karl-Titus; Galluzzi, Samantha; Frisoni, Giovanni B
2014-11-01
Large-scale longitudinal neuroimaging studies with diffusion imaging techniques are necessary to test and validate models of white matter neurophysiological processes that change in time, both in healthy and diseased brains. The predictive power of such longitudinal models will always be limited by the reproducibility of repeated measures acquired during different sessions. At present, there is limited quantitative knowledge about the across-session reproducibility of standard diffusion metrics in 3T multi-centric studies on subjects in stable conditions, in particular when using tract based spatial statistics and with elderly people. In this study we implemented a multi-site brain diffusion protocol in 10 clinical 3T MRI sites distributed across 4 countries in Europe (Italy, Germany, France and Greece) using vendor provided sequences from Siemens (Allegra, Trio Tim, Verio, Skyra, Biograph mMR), Philips (Achieva) and GE (HDxt) scanners. We acquired DTI data (2 × 2 × 2 mm(3), b = 700 s/mm(2), 5 b0 and 30 diffusion weighted volumes) of a group of healthy stable elderly subjects (5 subjects per site) in two separate sessions at least a week apart. For each subject and session four scalar diffusion metrics were considered: fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD) and axial (AD) diffusivity. The diffusion metrics from multiple subjects and sessions at each site were aligned to their common white matter skeleton using tract-based spatial statistics. The reproducibility at each MRI site was examined by looking at group averages of absolute changes relative to the mean (%) on various parameters: i) reproducibility of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the b0 images in centrum semiovale, ii) full brain test-retest differences of the diffusion metric maps on the white matter skeleton, iii) reproducibility of the diffusion metrics on atlas-based white matter ROIs on the white matter skeleton. Despite the differences of MRI scanner