PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

2014-09-15

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

2014-01-01

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

2016-04-01

Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling

A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: jjagdish@uj.ac.za, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za [Department of Physics, University of Johannesburg, P. O. Box 524, Auckland Park 2006 (South Africa)

2017-09-01

The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fit their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.

Sources of population and family planning assistance.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

This document assesses the current status of population and family planning assistance throughout the world and provides brief sketches of the available sources including national governments, intergovernmental agencies such as the UNFPA and other UN entities, and nongovernmental funding, technical assistance, or funding and technical assistance organizations. The descriptions of aid-granting organizations describe their purposes, sources of funding, and activities, and give addresses where further information may be sought. At present about $100 million of the US $1 billion spent for family planning in developing countries each year comes from individuals paying for their own supplies and services, over $400 million is spent by national governments on their own programs, and about $450 million comes from developed country governments and private agencies. Over half of external assistance appears to be channeled through international agencies, and only a few countries provide a substantial proportion of aid bilaterally. In the past decade several governments, particularly in Asia, significantly increased the share of program costs they assumed themselves, and the most populous developing countries, China, India, and Indonesia, now contribute most of the funding for their own programs. Although at least 130 countries have provided population aid at some time, most is given by 12 industrialized countries. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) is the largest single donor, but the US share of population assistance has declined to 50% of all assistance in 1981 from 60% in the early 1970s. Governments of Communist bloc countries have made only small contributions to international population assistance. Most governmental asistance is in cash grant form, but loans, grants in kind, and technical assistance are also provided. Private organizations give assistance primarily to other private organizations in developing countries, and have been major innovators in

Using temporal sampling to improve attribution of source populations for invasive species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sharyn J Goldstien

Full Text Available Numerous studies have applied genetic tools to the identification of source populations and transport pathways for invasive species. However, there are many gaps in the knowledge obtained from such studies because comprehensive and meaningful spatial sampling to meet these goals is difficult to achieve. Sampling populations as they arrive at the border should fill the gaps in source population identification, but such an advance has not yet been achieved with genetic data. Here we use previously acquired genetic data to assign new incursions as they invade populations within New Zealand ports and marinas. We also investigated allelelic frequency change in these recently established populations over a two-year period, and assessed the effect of temporal genetic sampling on our ability to assign new incursions to their population of source. We observed shifts in the allele frequencies among populations, as well as the complete loss of some alleles and the addition of alleles novel to New Zealand, within these recently established populations. There was no significant level of genetic differentiation observed in our samples between years, and the use of these temporal data did alter the assignment probability of new incursions. Our study further suggests that new incursions can add genetic variation to the population in a single introduction event as the founders themselves are often more genetically diverse than theory initially predicted.

Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin E McCluney

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web". Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

Science.gov (United States)

McCluney, Kevin E; Sabo, John L

2010-12-31

Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web"). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

2014-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Identifying populations at risk from environmental contamination from point sources

OpenAIRE

Williams, F; Ogston, S

2002-01-01

Objectives: To compare methods for defining the population at risk from a point source of air pollution. A major challenge for environmental epidemiology lies in correctly identifying populations at risk from exposure to environmental pollutants. The complexity of today's environment makes it essential that the methods chosen are accurate and sensitive.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

Science.gov (United States)

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net

BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas E Gorochowski

Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

Testing for multiple invasion routes and source populations for the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on Guam: implications for pest management

Science.gov (United States)

Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Wood, Dustin A.; Stanford, James W.; Fisher, Robert N.

2014-01-01

The brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) population on the Pacific island of Guam has reached iconic status as one of the most destructive invasive species of modern times, yet no published works have used genetic data to identify a source population. We used DNA sequence data from multiple genetic markers and coalescent-based phylogenetic methods to place the Guam population within the broader phylogeographic context of B. irregularis across its native range and tested whether patterns of genetic variation on the island are consistent with one or multiple introductions from different source populations. We also modeled a series of demographic scenarios that differed in the effective size and duration of a population bottleneck immediately following the invasion on Guam, and measured the fit of these simulations to the observed data using approximate Bayesian computation. Our results exclude the possibility of serial introductions from different source populations, and instead verify a single origin from the Admiralty Archipelago off the north coast of Papua New Guinea. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis thatB. irregularis was accidentally transported to Guam during military relocation efforts at the end of World War II. Demographic model comparisons suggest that multiple snakes were transported to Guam from the source locality, but that fewer than 10 individuals could be responsible for establishing the population. Our results also provide evidence that low genetic diversity stemming from the founder event has not been a hindrance to the ecological success of B. irregularis on Guam, and at the same time offers a unique ‘genetic opening’ to manage snake density using classical biological approaches.

Assessing Model Characterization of Single Source ...

Science.gov (United States)

Aircraft measurements made downwind from specific coal fired power plants during the 2013 Southeast Nexus field campaign provide a unique opportunity to evaluate single source photochemical model predictions of both O3 and secondary PM2.5 species. The model did well at predicting downwind plume placement. The model shows similar patterns of an increasing fraction of PM2.5 sulfate ion to the sum of SO2 and PM2.5 sulfate ion by distance from the source compared with ambient based estimates. The model was less consistent in capturing downwind ambient based trends in conversion of NOX to NOY from these sources. Source sensitivity approaches capture near-source O3 titration by fresh NO emissions, in particular subgrid plume treatment. However, capturing this near-source chemical feature did not translate into better downwind peak estimates of single source O3 impacts. The model estimated O3 production from these sources but often was lower than ambient based source production. The downwind transect ambient measurements, in particular secondary PM2.5 and O3, have some level of contribution from other sources which makes direct comparison with model source contribution challenging. Model source attribution results suggest contribution to secondary pollutants from multiple sources even where primary pollutants indicate the presence of a single source. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, deci

Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

Science.gov (United States)

Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

2014-07-01

A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

Location of odor sources and the affected population in Imperial County, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hahn, J.L.

1981-08-01

This report is divided into four sections. The first two sections contain general background information on Imperial County. The third section is a general discussion of odor sources in Imperial County, and the fourth maps the specific odor sources, the expected areas of perception, and the affected populations. this mapping is done for the Imperial Valley and each of the four Imperial County KGRA's (Known Geothermal Resource Areas) where odor from the development of the geothermal energy may affect population.

Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

2008-04-01

A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

Time-dependent source model of the Lusi mud volcano

Science.gov (United States)

Shirzaei, M.; Rudolph, M. L.; Manga, M.

2014-12-01

The Lusi mud eruption, near Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, began erupting in May 2006 and continues to erupt today. Previous analyses of surface deformation data suggested an exponential decay of the pressure in the mud source, but did not constrain the geometry and evolution of the source(s) from which the erupting mud and fluids ascend. To understand the spatiotemporal evolution of the mud and fluid sources, we apply a time-dependent inversion scheme to a densely populated InSAR time series of the surface deformation at Lusi. The SAR data set includes 50 images acquired on 3 overlapping tracks of the ALOS L-band satellite between May 2006 and April 2011. Following multitemporal analysis of this data set, the obtained surface deformation time series is inverted in a time-dependent framework to solve for the volume changes of distributed point sources in the subsurface. The volume change distribution resulting from this modeling scheme shows two zones of high volume change underneath Lusi at 0.5-1.5 km and 4-5.5km depth as well as another shallow zone, 7 km to the west of Lusi and underneath the Wunut gas field. The cumulative volume change within the shallow source beneath Lusi is ~2-4 times larger than that of the deep source, whilst the ratio of the Lusi shallow source volume change to that of Wunut gas field is ~1. This observation and model suggest that the Lusi shallow source played a key role in eruption process and mud supply, but that additional fluids do ascend from depths >4 km on eruptive timescales.

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

2010-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

2018-01-01

Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

Computational model of Amersham I-125 source model 6711 and Prosper Pd-103 source model MED3633 using MCNP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menezes, Artur F.; Reis Junior, Juraci P.; Silva, Ademir X., E-mail: ademir@con.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rosa, Luiz A.R. da, E-mail: lrosa@ird.gov.b [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Facure, Alessandro [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Cardoso, Simone C., E-mail: Simone@if.ufrj.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IF/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Nuclear

2011-07-01

Brachytherapy is used in cancer treatment at shorter distances through the use of small encapsulated source of ionizing radiation. In such treatment, a radiation source is positioned directly into or near the target volume to be treated. In this study the Monte Carlo based MCNP code was used to model and simulate the I-125 Amersham Health source model 6711 and the Pd-103 Prospera source model MED3633 in order to obtain the dosimetric parameter dose rate constant ({Lambda}) . The sources geometries were modeled and implemented in MCNPX code. The dose rate constant is an important parameter prostate LDR brachytherapy's treatments planning. This study was based on American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) recommendations which were produced by its Task Group 43. The results obtained were 0.941 and 0.65 for the dose rate constants of I-125 and Pd-103 sources, respectively. They present good agreement with the literature values based on different Monte Carlo codes. (author)

Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

2012-01-01

Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

2010-11-01

• Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

Open source molecular modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Pirhadi, Somayeh; Sunseri, Jocelyn; Koes, David Ryan

2016-09-01

The success of molecular modeling and computational chemistry efforts are, by definition, dependent on quality software applications. Open source software development provides many advantages to users of modeling applications, not the least of which is that the software is free and completely extendable. In this review we categorize, enumerate, and describe available open source software packages for molecular modeling and computational chemistry. An updated online version of this catalog can be found at https://opensourcemolecularmodeling.github.io. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

Science.gov (United States)

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

The modifying effect of the building envelope on population exposure to PM2.5 from outdoor sources

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, J; Shrubsole, C; Davies, M; Biddulph, P; Das, P; Hamilton, I; Vardoulakis, S; Mavrogianni, A; Jones, B; Oikonomou, E

2014-01-01

A number of studies have estimated population exposure to PM2.5 by examining modeled or measured outdoor PM2.5 levels. However, few have taken into account the mediating effects of building characteristics on the ingress of PM2.5 from outdoor sources and its impact on population exposure in the indoor domestic environment. This study describes how building simulation can be used to determine the indoor concentration of outdoor-sourced pollution for different housing typologies and how the results can be mapped using building stock models and Geographical Information Systems software to demonstrate the modifying effect of dwellings on occupant exposure to PM2.5 across London. Building archetypes broadly representative of those in the Greater London Authority were simulated for pollution infiltration using EnergyPlus. In addition, the influence of occupant behavior on indoor levels of PM2.5 from outdoor sources was examined using a temperature-dependent window-opening scenario. Results demonstrate a range of I/O ratios of PM2.5, with detached and semi-detached dwellings most vulnerable to high levels of infiltration. When the results are mapped, central London shows lower I/O ratios of PM2.5 compared with outer London, an apparent inversion of exposure most likely caused by the prevalence of flats rather than detached or semi-detached properties. PMID:24713025

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

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Clement N Mweya

Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2014-01-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

Population-expression models of immune response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

2013-01-01

The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

Science.gov (United States)

Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

Application of Gaussian cubature to model two-dimensional population balances

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Bałdyga Jerzy

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In many systems of engineering interest the moment transformation of population balance is applied. One of the methods to solve the transformed population balance equations is the quadrature method of moments. It is based on the approximation of the density function in the source term by the Gaussian quadrature so that it preserves the moments of the original distribution. In this work we propose another method to be applied to the multivariate population problem in chemical engineering, namely a Gaussian cubature (GC technique that applies linear programming for the approximation of the multivariate distribution. Examples of the application of the Gaussian cubature (GC are presented for four processes typical for chemical engineering applications. The first and second ones are devoted to crystallization modeling with direction-dependent two-dimensional and three-dimensional growth rates, the third one represents drop dispersion accompanied by mass transfer in liquid-liquid dispersions and finally the fourth case regards the aggregation and sintering of particle populations.

Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

Dynamic Properties of the Solow Model with Increasing or Decreasing Population and Time-to-Build Technology

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Luca Guerrini

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with nonconstant population. Our analysis shows that the population dynamics may be a source of stability switches and Hopf bifurcations. The analytical results are obtained using the recent technique introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002 in the studying of delayed differential equations with delay-dependent coefficients in characteristic equation. Numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate the main dynamic features of the model.

Source-sink estimates of genetic introgression show influence of hatchery strays on wild chum salmon populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

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James R Jasper

Full Text Available The extent to which stray, hatchery-reared salmon affect wild populations is much debated. Although experiments show that artificial breeding and culture influence the genetics of hatchery salmon, little is known about the interaction between hatchery and wild salmon in a natural setting. Here, we estimated historical and contemporary genetic population structures of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta in Prince William Sound (PWS, Alaska, with 135 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers. Historical population structure was inferred from the analysis of DNA from fish scales, which had been archived since the late 1960's for several populations in PWS. Parallel analyses with microsatellites and a test based on Hardy-Weinberg proportions showed that about 50% of the fish-scale DNA was cross-contaminated with DNA from other fish. These samples were removed from the analysis. We used a novel application of the classical source-sink model to compare SNP allele frequencies in these archived fish-scales (1964-1982 with frequencies in contemporary samples (2008-2010 and found a temporal shift toward hatchery allele frequencies in some wild populations. Other populations showed markedly less introgression, despite moderate amounts of hatchery straying. The extent of introgression may reflect similarities in spawning time and life-history traits between hatchery and wild fish, or the degree that hybrids return to a natal spawning area. The source-sink model is a powerful means of detecting low levels of introgression over several generations.

Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

Science.gov (United States)

Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

2017-12-01

Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

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Philip Gemmell

Full Text Available Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+, inward rectifying K(+, L-type Ca(2+, and Na(+/K(+ pump currents in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al. at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in

Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T Alexander

2014-01-01

Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally

Learning models for multi-source integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tejada, S.; Knoblock, C.A.; Minton, S. [Univ. of Southern California/ISI, Marina del Rey, CA (United States)

1996-12-31

Because of the growing number of information sources available through the internet there are many cases in which information needed to solve a problem or answer a question is spread across several information sources. For example, when given two sources, one about comic books and the other about super heroes, you might want to ask the question {open_quotes}Is Spiderman a Marvel Super Hero?{close_quotes} This query accesses both sources; therefore, it is necessary to have information about the relationships of the data within each source and between sources to properly access and integrate the data retrieved. The SIMS information broker captures this type of information in the form of a model. All the information sources map into the model providing the user a single interface to multiple sources.

Source characterization and exposure modeling of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H.; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua (Tina); Wu, Jun

2018-03-01

Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC.

Science.gov (United States)

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-06

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

Science.gov (United States)

Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

2013-11-01

Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Competition as a source of constraint on life history evolution in natural populations.

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Wilson, A J

2014-01-01

Competition among individuals is central to our understanding of ecology and population dynamics. However, it could also have major implications for the evolution of resource-dependent life history traits (for example, growth, fecundity) that are important determinants of fitness in natural populations. This is because when competition occurs, the phenotype of each individual will be causally influenced by the phenotypes, and so the genotypes, of competitors. Theory tells us that indirect genetic effects arising from competitive interactions will give rise to the phenomenon of 'evolutionary environmental deterioration', and act as a source of evolutionary constraint on resource-dependent traits under natural selection. However, just how important this constraint is remains an unanswered question. This article seeks to stimulate empirical research in this area, first highlighting some patterns emerging from life history studies that are consistent with a competition-based model of evolutionary constraint, before describing several quantitative modelling strategies that could be usefully applied. A recurrent theme is that rigorous quantification of a competition's impact on life history evolution will require an understanding of the causal pathways and behavioural processes by which genetic (co)variance structures arise. Knowledge of the G-matrix among life history traits is not, in and of itself, sufficient to identify the constraints caused by competition.

Carnivore translocations and conservation: insights from population models and field data for fishers (Martes pennanti.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey C Lewis

Full Text Available Translocations are frequently used to restore extirpated carnivore populations. Understanding the factors that influence translocation success is important because carnivore translocations can be time consuming, expensive, and controversial. Using population viability software, we modeled reintroductions of the fisher, a candidate for endangered or threatened status in the Pacific states of the US. Our model predicts that the most important factor influencing successful re-establishment of a fisher population is the number of adult females reintroduced (provided some males are also released. Data from 38 translocations of fishers in North America, including 30 reintroductions, 5 augmentations and 3 introductions, show that the number of females released was, indeed, a good predictor of success but that the number of males released, geographic region and proximity of the source population to the release site were also important predictors. The contradiction between model and data regarding males may relate to the assumption in the model that all males are equally good breeders. We hypothesize that many males may need to be released to insure a sufficient number of good breeders are included, probably large males. Seventy-seven percent of reintroductions with known outcomes (success or failure succeeded; all 5 augmentations succeeded; but none of the 3 introductions succeeded. Reintroductions were instrumental in reestablishing fisher populations within their historical range and expanding the range from its most-contracted state (43% of the historical range to its current state (68% of the historical range. To increase the likelihood of translocation success, we recommend that managers: 1 release as many fishers as possible, 2 release more females than males (55-60% females when possible, 3 release as many adults as possible, especially large males, 4 release fishers from a nearby source population, 5 conduct a formal feasibility assessment, and

Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

2010-01-01

mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

1993-10-01

The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Characterization and modeling of the heat source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glickstein, S.S.; Friedman, E.

1993-10-01

A description of the input energy source is basic to any numerical modeling formulation designed to predict the outcome of the welding process. The source is fundamental and unique to each joining process. The resultant output of any numerical model will be affected by the initial description of both the magnitude and distribution of the input energy of the heat source. Thus, calculated weld shape, residual stresses, weld distortion, cooling rates, metallurgical structure, material changes due to excessive temperatures and potential weld defects are all influenced by the initial characterization of the heat source. Understandings of both the physics and the mathematical formulation of these sources are essential for describing the input energy distribution. This section provides a brief review of the physical phenomena that influence the input energy distributions and discusses several different models of heat sources that have been used in simulating arc welding, high energy density welding and resistance welding processes. Both simplified and detailed models of the heat source are discussed.

Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

Science.gov (United States)

Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

2017-07-01

Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

Use of models in small mammal population studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

1978-01-01

The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

Incorporating territory compression into population models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

A hierarchical integrated population model for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, California and Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Coates, Peter S.; Halstead, Brian J.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne; Howe, Kristy B.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Reese, Kerry P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Casazza, Michael L.

2014-01-01

rate (i.e., finite rate of change, λ) and specific demographic parameters that explain sources of variation in λ within different subpopulations would be valuable for making conservation and management decisions for this DPS. During 2003–12, agencies and universities collaborated to conduct extensive monitoring of sage-grouse populations within the Bi-State DPS. Data regarding lek attendance, movement, and survival of sage-grouse across multiple life stages were documented. Specifically, sage-grouse from nearly all subpopulations were marked and tracked across multiple seasons using radio-telemetry techniques. A hierarchical integrated population modeling (IPM) approach was used to derive demographic parameters for the Bi-State DPS using the large amount of data collected over a 10-year period. This modeling approach allows integration of multiple data sources to inform population growth rates and population vital rates for the Bi-State DPS overall, as well as for individual subpopulations. These models are more informative than other models because they integrate inputs of demographic data (for example, survival and fecundity rates) and survey data (for example, lek observations). The findings here will help characterize population growth rates within the Bi-State DPS.

Joint modeling and registration of cell populations in cohorts of high-dimensional flow cytometric data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saumyadipta Pyne

Full Text Available In biomedical applications, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multivariate responses of a panel of markers such as from a signaling network. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While computational methods can identify cell populations in individual samples, without the ability to automatically match them across samples, it is difficult to compare and characterize the populations in typical experiments, such as those responding to various stimulations or distinctive of particular patients or time-points, especially when there are many samples. Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM is a multi-level framework for simultaneous modeling and registration of populations across a cohort. JCM models every population with a robust multivariate probability distribution. Simultaneously, JCM fits a random-effects model to construct an overall batch template--used for registering populations across samples, and classifying new samples. By tackling systems-level variation, JCM supports practical biomedical applications involving large cohorts. Software for fitting the JCM models have been implemented in an R package EMMIX-JCM, available from http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/mix_soft/EMMIX-JCM/.

Evaluation and distribution of doses received by Cuban population due to environmental sources of radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerquera, Juan T.; Prendes Alonso, Miguel; Fernandez Gomez, Isis M.; Lopez Bejerano, Gladys

2008-01-01

Full text: In the frame of a national research project supported by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment of the Republic of Cuba doses received by Cuban population due to the exposure to existing in the environment sources of radiation were assessed. Direct measurements of sources representing 90% of average total doses to world population according to UNSCEAR data were made and estimations of doses were obtained for the different components of the total dose: doses due to the exposure to cosmic radiation, external terrestrial radiation, potassium contained in human body and inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides present in the environment. Using the obtained results it was made an estimation of total doses to Cuban population due to environmental radiation sources and the contributions of different dose components were assessed. This was carried out through a Monte Carlo simulation of the total doses using the parameter of dose distributions obtained for the different contributors (components) to total dose. On the basis of the estimations the average total effective dose to Cuban population due to the exposure to environmental sources was estimated as 1.1 ± 0.3 mSv per year. This low dose value is in the range of doses estimated by UNSCEAR for world population due to natural background and can be explained by the specific of Cuban environment: a majority of the population living at the sea level or at low altitudes, relative low content of primordial radionuclides in soils and high ventilation rates in dwellings. All the instructions specified in the Call for Abstracts should be taken into account. e/ 41 and 457. (author)

Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hal Caswell

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

Balmorel open source energy system model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiese, Frauke; Bramstoft, Rasmus; Koduvere, Hardi

2018-01-01

As the world progresses towards a cleaner energy future with more variable renewable energy sources, energy system models are required to deal with new challenges. This article describes design, development and applications of the open source energy system model Balmorel, which is a result...... of a long and fruitful cooperation between public and private institutions within energy system research and analysis. The purpose of the article is to explain the modelling approach, to highlight strengths and challenges of the chosen approach, to create awareness about the possible applications...... of Balmorel as well as to inspire to new model developments and encourage new users to join the community. Some of the key strengths of the model are the flexible handling of the time and space dimensions and the combination of operation and investment optimisation. Its open source character enables diverse...

Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

KAUST Repository

Song, S. G.

2013-12-24

Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasuharu Nagano

Full Text Available Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury.A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors.The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%. However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

2014-01-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthieu Jacobs

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

CERN Document Server

Ruan, Shigui

2008-01-01

This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

CERN Document Server

Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

2014-01-01

This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

Science.gov (United States)

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkle, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

Constraints on equivalent elastic source models from near-source data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stump, B.

1993-01-01

A phenomenological based seismic source model is important in quantifying the important physical processes that affect the observed seismic radiation in the linear-elastic regime. Representations such as these were used to assess yield effects on seismic waves under a Threshold Test Ban Treaty and to help transport seismic coupling experience at one test site to another. These same characterizations in a non-proliferation environment find applications in understanding the generation of the different types of body and surface waves from nuclear explosions, single chemical explosions, arrays of chemical explosions used in mining, rock bursts and earthquakes. Seismologists typically begin with an equivalent elastic representation of the source which when convolved with the propagation path effects produces a seismogram. The Representation Theorem replaces the true source with an equivalent set of body forces, boundary conditions or initial conditions. An extension of this representation shows the equivalence of the body forces, boundary conditions and initial conditions and replaces the source with a set of force moments, the first degree moment tensor for a point source representation. The difficulty with this formulation, which can completely describe the observed waveforms when the propagation path effects are known, is in the physical interpretation of the actual physical processes acting in the source volume. Observational data from within the source region, where processes are often nonlinear, linked to numerical models of the important physical processes in this region are critical to a unique physical understanding of the equivalent elastic source function

PSRPOPPy: an open-source package for pulsar population simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, S. D.; Lorimer, D. R.; Rane, A.; Swiggum, J.

2014-04-01

We have produced a new software package for the simulation of pulsar populations, PSRPOPPY, based on the PSRPOP package. The codebase has been re-written in Python (save for some external libraries, which remain in their native Fortran), utilizing the object-oriented features of the language, and improving the modularity of the code. Pre-written scripts are provided for running the simulations in `standard' modes of operation, but the code is flexible enough to support the writing of personalised scripts. The modular structure also makes the addition of experimental features (such as new models for period or luminosity distributions) more straightforward than with the previous code. We also discuss potential additions to the modelling capabilities of the software. Finally, we demonstrate some potential applications of the code; first, using results of surveys at different observing frequencies, we find pulsar spectral indices are best fitted by a normal distribution with mean -1.4 and standard deviation 1.0. Secondly, we model pulsar spin evolution to calculate the best fit for a relationship between a pulsar's luminosity and spin parameters. We used the code to replicate the analysis of Faucher-Giguère & Kaspi, and have subsequently optimized their power-law dependence of radio luminosity, L, with period, P, and period derivative, Ṗ. We find that the underlying population is best described by L ∝ P-1.39±0.09 Ṗ0.48±0.04 and is very similar to that found for γ-ray pulsars by Perera et al. Using this relationship, we generate a model population and examine the age-luminosity relation for the entire pulsar population, which may be measurable after future large-scale surveys with the Square Kilometre Array.

Trans Fat Intake and Its Dietary Sources in General Populations Worldwide: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, Anne J.; Zock, Peter L.; Brouwer, Ingeborg A.

2017-01-01

After the discovery that trans fat increases the risk of coronary heart disease, trans fat content of foods have considerably changed. The aim of this study was to systematically review available data on intakes of trans fat and its dietary sources in general populations worldwide. Data from national dietary surveys and population studies published from 1995 onward were searched via Scopus and websites of national public health institutes. Relevant data from 29 countries were identified. The most up to date estimates of total trans fat intake ranged from 0.3 to 4.2 percent of total energy intake (En%) across countries. Seven countries had trans fat intakes higher than the World Health Organization recommendation of 1 En%. In 16 out of 21 countries with data on dietary sources, intakes of trans fat from animal sources were higher than that from industrial sources. Time trend data from 20 countries showed substantial declines in industrial trans fat intake since 1995. In conclusion, nowadays, in the majority of countries for which data are available, average trans fat intake is lower than the recommended maximum intake of 1 En%, with intakes from animal sources being higher than from industrial sources. In the past 20 years, substantial reductions in industrial trans fat have been achieved in many countries. PMID:28783062

Bayesian model selection of template forward models for EEG source reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Strobbe, Gregor; van Mierlo, Pieter; De Vos, Maarten; Mijović, Bogdan; Hallez, Hans; Van Huffel, Sabine; López, José David; Vandenberghe, Stefaan

2014-06-01

Several EEG source reconstruction techniques have been proposed to identify the generating neuronal sources of electrical activity measured on the scalp. The solution of these techniques depends directly on the accuracy of the forward model that is inverted. Recently, a parametric empirical Bayesian (PEB) framework for distributed source reconstruction in EEG/MEG was introduced and implemented in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. The framework allows us to compare different forward modeling approaches, using real data, instead of using more traditional simulated data from an assumed true forward model. In the absence of a subject specific MR image, a 3-layered boundary element method (BEM) template head model is currently used including a scalp, skull and brain compartment. In this study, we introduced volumetric template head models based on the finite difference method (FDM). We constructed a FDM head model equivalent to the BEM model and an extended FDM model including CSF. These models were compared within the context of three different types of source priors related to the type of inversion used in the PEB framework: independent and identically distributed (IID) sources, equivalent to classical minimum norm approaches, coherence (COH) priors similar to methods such as LORETA, and multiple sparse priors (MSP). The resulting models were compared based on ERP data of 20 subjects using Bayesian model selection for group studies. The reconstructed activity was also compared with the findings of previous studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found very strong evidence in favor of the extended FDM head model with CSF and assuming MSP. These results suggest that the use of realistic volumetric forward models can improve PEB EEG source reconstruction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Personal and Built Environment Attributes to Physical Activity: A Multilevel Analysis on Multiple Population-Based Data Sources

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Wei Yang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Studies have documented that built environment factors potentially promote or impede leisure time physical activity (LTPA. This study explored the relationship between multiple built environment factors and individual characteristics on LTPA. Methods. Multiple data sources were utilized including individual level data for health behaviors and health status from the Nevada Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS and community level data from different data sources including indicators for recreation facilities, safety, air quality, commute time, urbanization, population density, and land mix level. Mixed model logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS spatial analysis were conducted. Results. Among 6,311 respondents, 24.4% reported no LTPA engagement during the past 30 days. No engagement in LTPA was significantly associated with (1 individual factors: older age, less education, lower income, being obesity, and low life satisfaction and (2 community factors: more commute time, higher crime rate, urban residence, higher population density, but not for density and distance to recreation facilities, air quality, and land mix. Conclusions. Multiple data systems including complex population survey and spatial analysis are valuable tools on health and built environment studies.

Merging Models and Biomonitoring Data to Characterize Sources andPathways of Human Exposure to Organophosphorous Pesticides in the SalinasValley of California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKone, Thomas E.; Castorina, Rosemary; Kuwabara, Yu; Harnly,Martha E.; Eskenazi, Brenda; Bradman, Asa

2006-06-01

By drawing on human biomonitoring data and limited environmental samples together with outputs from the CalTOX multimedia, multipathway source-to-dose model, we characterize cumulative intake of organophosphorous (OP) pesticides in an agricultural region of California. We assemble regional OP pesticide use, environmental sampling, and biological tissue monitoring data for a large and geographically dispersed population cohort of 592 pregnant Latina women in California (the CHAMACOS cohort). We then use CalTOX with regional pesticide usage data to estimate the magnitude and uncertainty of exposure and intake from local sources. We combine model estimates of intake from local sources with food intake based on national residue data to estimate for the CHAMACOS cohort cumulative median OP intake, which corresponds to expected levels of urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) metabolite excretion for this cohort. From these results we develop premises about relative contributions from different sources and pathways of exposure. We evaluate these premises by comparing the magnitude and variation of DAPs in the CHAMACOS cohort with the whole U.S. population using data from the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES). This comparison supports the premise that in both populations diet is the common and dominant exposure pathway. Both the model results and biomarker comparison supports the observation that the CHAMACOS population has a statistically significant higher intake of OP pesticides that appears as an almost constant additional dose among all participants. We attribute the magnitude and small variance of this intake to non-dietary exposure in residences from local sources.

A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

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Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

2014-02-01

State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

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Gordon, Sheldon P.

2009-01-01

The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

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Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

2011-01-01

1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy

Estimating abundance of an open population with an N-mixture model using auxiliary data on animal movements.

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Ketz, Alison C; Johnson, Therese L; Monello, Ryan J; Mack, John A; George, Janet L; Kraft, Benjamin R; Wild, Margaret A; Hooten, Mevin B; Hobbs, N Thompson

2018-04-01

Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground-based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi-state mark-recapture methods using a hierarchical N-mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state-space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a

Population demographics of two local South Carolina mourning dove populations

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McGowan, D.P.; Otis, D.L.

1998-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) call-count index had a significant (P 2,300 doves and examined >6,000 individuals during harvest bag checks. An age-specific band recovery model with time- and area-specific recovery rates, and constant survival rates, was chosen for estimation via Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), likelihood ratio, and goodness-of-fit criteria. After-hatching-year (AHY) annual survival rate was 0.359 (SE = 0.056), and hatching-year (HY) annual survival rate was 0.118 (SE = 0.042). Average estimated recruitment per adult female into the prehunting season population was 3.40 (SE = 1.25) and 2.32 (SE = 0.46) for the 2 study areas. Our movement data support earlier hypotheses of nonmigratory breeding and harvested populations in South Carolina. Low survival rates and estimated population growth rate in the study areas may be representative only of small-scale areas that are heavily managed for dove hunting. Source-sink theory was used to develop a model of region-wide populations that is composed of source areas with positive growth rates and sink areas of declining growth. We suggest management of mourning doves in the Southeast might benefit from improved understanding of local population dynamics, as opposed to regional-scale population demographics.

Assessment of dose contribution to population exposure from the radiation sources in the alienated Chernobyl zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grodzinsky, D.M.; Francevych, L.K.; Koval, H.N.; Yakovlev, E.A.; Bezdrobny, Yu.V.; Proscura, N.I.; Pyantkowsky, V.L.

1997-01-01

The main dose load of Ukrainian population is caused by radionuclide-contamination of country territories, located outside the alienated zone, following Chernobyl accident. Besides, much attention could be devoted to the contribution of dose load on population, received from the radioactivity sources that were transferred out from the zone after accident. Present research and analysis of the available documents reflecting the transfer of radioactivity from the alienated zone, provided the estimates of dose load on population, resulting from transfer of the radioactivity sources via following channels: (1) direct surface flow; (2) underground waters; (3) wind-powdered route; (4) transfer with hydrobionts; (5) transfer during irrigation; (6) biogenic route; (7) transport routes and (8) route during wood transportation. Dynamics of radiation transfer through each channel was also studied for the post-accident period. Specific gravity of radioactivity transfer is determined in relation to dose load on Ukrainian population in different regions, in particular, in Dnipro river basin. The perspectives of radioactivity transfer via each of studied channels and its role in dose load on population were also analyzed. On the basis of present results the recommendations on possible arrangements are working out that aimed to reduce the dose contribution in population exposure by radioactivity source transfer from the alienated zone via channels that stipulate the largest dose loads and collective doses

Modelling Choice of Information Sources

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Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

Population dynamics

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Cooch, E. G.

2004-06-01

��recapture analysis with model estimates. The utility of combining sources of information into analysis of populations was the explicit subject of the other two papers. Gauthier & Lebreton (2004 draw on a long–term study of an Arctic–breeding Goose population, where both extensive mark–recapture, ring recovery, and census data are available. The primary goal is to use these various sources of information to to evaluate the effect of increased harvests on dynamics of the population. A number of methods are compared; most notably they describe an approach based on the Kalman filter which allows for different sources of information to be used in the same model, that is demographic data (i.e. transition matrix and census data (i.e. annual survey. They note that one advantage of this approach is that it attempts to minimize both uncertainties associated with the survey and demographic parameters based on the variance of each estimate. The final paper, by Brooks, King and Morgan (Brooks et al., 2004 extends the notion of the combining information in a common model further. They present a Bayesian analysis of joint ring–recovery and census data using a state–space model allowing for the fact that not all members of the population are directly observable. They then impose a Leslie–matrix–based model on the true population counts describing the natural birth–death and age transition processes. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC approach (which eliminates the need for some of the standard assumption often invoked in use of a Kalman filter, Brooks and colleagues describe methods to combine information, including potentially relevant covariates that might explain some of the variation, within a larger framework that allows for discrimination (selection amongst alternative models. We submit that all of the papers presented in this session indicate clearly significant interest in approaches for combining data and modeling approaches. The Bayesian framework appears a natural

Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

Science.gov (United States)

J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

1993-01-01

Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

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Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-10-11

The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

2014-05-01

Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration

Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-01

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

Trans Fat Intake and Its Dietary Sources in General Populations Worldwide: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne J. Wanders

2017-08-01

Full Text Available After the discovery that trans fat increases the risk of coronary heart disease, trans fat content of foods have considerably changed. The aim of this study was to systematically review available data on intakes of trans fat and its dietary sources in general populations worldwide. Data from national dietary surveys and population studies published from 1995 onward were searched via Scopus and websites of national public health institutes. Relevant data from 29 countries were identified. The most up to date estimates of total trans fat intake ranged from 0.3 to 4.2 percent of total energy intake (En% across countries. Seven countries had trans fat intakes higher than the World Health Organization recommendation of 1 En%. In 16 out of 21 countries with data on dietary sources, intakes of trans fat from animal sources were higher than that from industrial sources. Time trend data from 20 countries showed substantial declines in industrial trans fat intake since 1995. In conclusion, nowadays, in the majority of countries for which data are available, average trans fat intake is lower than the recommended maximum intake of 1 En%, with intakes from animal sources being higher than from industrial sources. In the past 20 years, substantial reductions in industrial trans fat have been achieved in many countries.

A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gompert, Zachariah

2016-01-01

Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20) SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure), particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur) and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among chromosomes in the Uyghur

Annual individual hygienic assessment of natural exposure doses of the Altai territory model areas population

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N. Yu. Potseluev

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The goal is to determine ionizing radiation natural sources exposure regularities of Altai Territory model areas population. The materials and methods. 11376 radon measurements, 1247 gamma radiation meas-urements in an open area and in residential and office buildings were performed, selection of 189 drinking water tests was carried out. Results. Complex radiation and hygienic examination of the region with the most large municipalities number with model areas allocation was conducted. The assessment of the Altai Territory population’s individual annual radiation doses from natural radionuclides has revealed a number of the regularities depending on the terrain’s ecological and geographical type. Following the research results, ranging the region territories taking into account of annual effective doses of the population from natural sources for 2009-2015 was carried out. The annual individual effective dose of the Altai Territory upland areas population presented by the highest values and ranges from 7.36 mSv / year to 8.19 mSv / year. Foothill regions of Altai and in Salair ridge are characterized by increased population exposure from natural sources. Here the dose ranges from 5.09 mSv / year to 6.22 mSv / year. Steppe and forest-steppe territories are characterized by the lowest level of the natural radiation which is ranging from 3.23 mSv / year to 4.11 mSv / year, that doesn’t exceed the all-Russian levels. Most of the hygienic radon equivalent equilibrium volume activity standards exceedances were registered in mountain and foothill areas buildings. A number of radon anomalies is revealed also in steppe areas. Med exceedances ranged from 203 ± 17.8 Bq / m3 to 480 ± 37.9 Bq / m3. Given the fact that most of these buildings belong to the administrative or educational institutions with an eight-hour working day, the dose of radiation for people there can be up to 10 mSv / year. Conclusion. Spreading of individual annual effective

Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

Science.gov (United States)

M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

2009-01-01

The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

Science.gov (United States)

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling multi-source flooding disaster and developing simulation framework in Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Cui, X.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

Most Delta regions of the world are densely populated and with advanced economies. However, due to impact of the multi-source flooding (upstream flood, rainstorm waterlogging, storm surge flood), the Delta regions is very vulnerable. The academic circles attach great importance to the multi-source flooding disaster in these areas. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in south China is selected as the research area. Based on analysis of natural and environmental characteristics data of the Delta urban agglomeration(remote sensing data, land use data, topographic map, etc.), hydrological monitoring data, research of the uneven distribution and process of regional rainfall, the relationship between the underlying surface and the parameters of runoff, effect of flood storage pattern, we use an automatic or semi-automatic method for dividing spatial units to reflect the runoff characteristics in urban agglomeration, and develop an Multi-model Ensemble System in changing environment, including urban hydrologic model, parallel computational 1D&2D hydrodynamic model, storm surge forecast model and other professional models, the system will have the abilities like real-time setting a variety of boundary conditions, fast and real-time calculation, dynamic presentation of results, powerful statistical analysis function. The model could be optimized and improved by a variety of verification methods. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471427); Special Basic Research Key Fund for Central Public Scientific Research Institutes.

Modelling of H.264 MPEG2 TS Traffic Source

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Klucik

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with IPTV traffic source modelling. Traffic sources are used for simulation, emulation and real network testing. This model is made as a derivation of known recorded traffic sources that are analysed and statistically processed. As the results show the proposed model causes in comparison to the known traffic source very similar network traffic parameters when used in a simulated network.

Computerized dosimetry of I-125 sources model 6711

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isturiz, J.

2001-01-01

It tries on: physical presentation of the sources; radiation protection; mathematical model of I-125 source model 6711; data considered for the calculation program; experimental com probation of the dose distribution; exposure rate and apparent activity; techniques of the use given to the sources I-125; and the calculation planning systems [es

Reproducibility and consistency of proteomic experiments on natural populations of a non-model aquatic insect.

Science.gov (United States)

Hidalgo-Galiana, Amparo; Monge, Marta; Biron, David G; Canals, Francesc; Ribera, Ignacio; Cieslak, Alexandra

2014-01-01

Population proteomics has a great potential to address evolutionary and ecological questions, but its use in wild populations of non-model organisms is hampered by uncontrolled sources of variation. Here we compare the response to temperature extremes of two geographically distant populations of a diving beetle species (Agabus ramblae) using 2-D DIGE. After one week of acclimation in the laboratory under standard conditions, a third of the specimens of each population were placed at either 4 or 27°C for 12 h, with another third left as a control. We then compared the protein expression level of three replicated samples of 2-3 specimens for each treatment. Within each population, variation between replicated samples of the same treatment was always lower than variation between treatments, except for some control samples that retained a wider range of expression levels. The two populations had a similar response, without significant differences in the number of protein spots over- or under-expressed in the pairwise comparisons between treatments. We identified exemplary proteins among those differently expressed between treatments, which proved to be proteins known to be related to thermal response or stress. Overall, our results indicate that specimens collected in the wild are suitable for proteomic analyses, as the additional sources of variation were not enough to mask the consistency and reproducibility of the response to the temperature treatments.

A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

Science.gov (United States)

Otis, D.L.

2002-01-01

Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

HOX and TALE signatures specify human stromal stem cell populations from different sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Picchi, Jacopo; Trombi, Luisa; Spugnesi, Laura; Barachini, Serena; Maroni, Giorgia; Brodano, Giovanni Barbanti; Boriani, Stefano; Valtieri, Mauro; Petrini, Mario; Magli, Maria Cristina

2013-04-01

Human stromal stem cell populations reside in different tissues and anatomical sites, however a critical question related to their efficient use in regenerative medicine is whether they exhibit equivalent biological properties. Here, we compared cellular and molecular characteristics of stromal stem cells derived from the bone marrow, at different body sites (iliac crest, sternum, and vertebrae) and other tissues (dental pulp and colon). In particular, we investigated whether homeobox genes of the HOX and TALE subfamilies might provide suitable markers to identify distinct stromal cell populations, as HOX proteins control cell positional identity and, together with their co-factors TALE, are involved in orchestrating differentiation of adult tissues. Our results show that stromal populations from different sources, although immunophenotypically similar, display distinct HOX and TALE signatures, as well as different growth and differentiation abilities. Stromal stem cells from different tissues are characterized by specific HOX profiles, differing in the number and type of active genes, as well as in their level of expression. Conversely, bone marrow-derived cell populations can be essentially distinguished for the expression levels of specific HOX members, strongly suggesting that quantitative differences in HOX activity may be crucial. Taken together, our data indicate that the HOX and TALE profiles provide positional, embryological and hierarchical identity of human stromal stem cells. Furthermore, our data suggest that cell populations derived from different body sites may not represent equivalent cell sources for cell-based therapeutical strategies for regeneration and repair of specific tissues. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Null Controllability of a Nonlinear Dissipative System and Application to the Detection of the Incomplete Parameter for a Nonlinear Population Dynamics Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yacouba Simporé

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We first prove a null controllability result for a nonlinear system derived from a nonlinear population dynamics model. In order to tackle the controllability problem we use an adapted Carleman inequality. Next we consider the nonlinear population dynamics model with a source term called the pollution term. In order to obtain information on the pollution term we use the method of sentinel.

Fast temperature optimization of multi-source hyperthermia applicators with reduced-order modeling of 'virtual sources'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, K-S; Stakhursky, Vadim; Craciunescu, Oana I; Stauffer, Paul; Dewhirst, Mark; Das, Shiva K

2008-01-01

The goal of this work is to build the foundation for facilitating real-time magnetic resonance image guided patient treatment for heating systems with a large number of physical sources (e.g. antennas). Achieving this goal requires knowledge of how the temperature distribution will be affected by changing each source individually, which requires time expenditure on the order of the square of the number of sources. To reduce computation time, we propose a model reduction approach that combines a smaller number of predefined source configurations (fewer than the number of actual sources) that are most likely to heat tumor. The source configurations consist of magnitude and phase source excitation values for each actual source and may be computed from a CT scan based plan or a simplified generic model of the corresponding patient anatomy. Each pre-calculated source configuration is considered a 'virtual source'. We assume that the actual best source settings can be represented effectively as weighted combinations of the virtual sources. In the context of optimization, each source configuration is treated equivalently to one physical source. This model reduction approach is tested on a patient upper-leg tumor model (with and without temperature-dependent perfusion), heated using a 140 MHz ten-antenna cylindrical mini-annular phased array. Numerical simulations demonstrate that using only a few pre-defined source configurations can achieve temperature distributions that are comparable to those from full optimizations using all physical sources. The method yields close to optimal temperature distributions when using source configurations determined from a simplified model of the tumor, even when tumor position is erroneously assumed to be ∼2.0 cm away from the actual position as often happens in practical clinical application of pre-treatment planning. The method also appears to be robust under conditions of changing, nonlinear, temperature-dependent perfusion. The

Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Einat Granot-Atedgi

Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Anung Basuki

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

Mercury Stable Isotopes Discriminate Different Populations of European Seabass and Trace Potential Hg Sources around Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Cransveld, Alice; Amouroux, David; Tessier, Emmanuel; Koutrakis, Emmanuil; Ozturk, Ayaka A; Bettoso, Nicola; Mieiro, Cláudia L; Bérail, Sylvain; Barre, Julien P G; Sturaro, Nicolas; Schnitzler, Joseph; Das, Krishna

2017-11-07

Our study reports the first data on mercury (Hg) isotope composition in marine European fish, for seven distinct populations of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax. The use of δ 202 Hg and Δ 199 Hg values in SIBER enabled us to estimate Hg isotopic niches, successfully discriminating several populations. Recursive-partitioning analyses demonstrated the relevance of Hg stable isotopes as discriminating tools. Hg isotopic values also provided insight on Hg contamination sources for biota in coastal environment. The overall narrow range of δ 202 Hg around Europe was suggested to be related to a global atmospheric contamination while δ 202 Hg at some sites was linked either to background contamination, or with local contamination sources. Δ 199 Hg was related to Hg levels of fish but we also suggest a relation with ecological conditions. Throughout this study, results from the Black Sea population stood out, displaying a Hg cycling similar to fresh water lakes. Our findings bring out the possibility to use Hg isotopes in order to discriminate distinct populations, to explore the Hg cycle on a large scale (Europe) and to distinguish sites contaminated by global versus local Hg source. The interest of using Hg sable isotopes to investigate the whole European Hg cycle is clearly highlighted.

Modeling of EUV emission from xenon and tin plasma sources for nanolithography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poirier, M. [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France)]. E-mail: michel.poirier@cea.fr; Blenski, T. [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Gaufridy de Dortan, F. de [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Gilleron, F. [CEA-DAM, F91680 Bruyeres-le-Chatel (France)

2006-05-15

Over the last decade there has been a major effort devoted to the development of efficient extreme UV sources designed for nanolithography, operating in the 13.5-nm range. Possible sources include laser-produced plasmas and discharge-produced plasmas. This paper, devoted to the modeling of such emission, emphasizes the atomic physics effects and particularly the effects of configuration interaction. Two types of theoretical approaches are presented, one involving the detailed computation with the parametric potential code HULLAC, the other based on the superconfiguration code SCO. Computations of emission spectra in xenon and tin are presented. The possible influence of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects is investigated using populations given by the simple collisional-radiative formulas from Colombant and Tonon. Convergence to LTE is analyzed in the tin case.

Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Chen

Full Text Available For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.

A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zachariah Gompert

Full Text Available Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20 SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure, particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among

Probabilistic forward model for electroencephalography source analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plis, Sergey M; George, John S; Jun, Sung C; Ranken, Doug M; Volegov, Petr L; Schmidt, David M

2007-01-01

Source localization by electroencephalography (EEG) requires an accurate model of head geometry and tissue conductivity. The estimation of source time courses from EEG or from EEG in conjunction with magnetoencephalography (MEG) requires a forward model consistent with true activity for the best outcome. Although MRI provides an excellent description of soft tissue anatomy, a high resolution model of the skull (the dominant resistive component of the head) requires CT, which is not justified for routine physiological studies. Although a number of techniques have been employed to estimate tissue conductivity, no present techniques provide the noninvasive 3D tomographic mapping of conductivity that would be desirable. We introduce a formalism for probabilistic forward modeling that allows the propagation of uncertainties in model parameters into possible errors in source localization. We consider uncertainties in the conductivity profile of the skull, but the approach is general and can be extended to other kinds of uncertainties in the forward model. We and others have previously suggested the possibility of extracting conductivity of the skull from measured electroencephalography data by simultaneously optimizing over dipole parameters and the conductivity values required by the forward model. Using Cramer-Rao bounds, we demonstrate that this approach does not improve localization results nor does it produce reliable conductivity estimates. We conclude that the conductivity of the skull has to be either accurately measured by an independent technique, or that the uncertainties in the conductivity values should be reflected in uncertainty in the source location estimates

Equivalent charge source model based iterative maximum neighbor weight for sparse EEG source localization.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Peng; Tian, Yin; Lei, Xu; Hu, Xiao; Yao, Dezhong

2008-12-01

How to localize the neural electric activities within brain effectively and precisely from the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings is a critical issue for current study in clinical neurology and cognitive neuroscience. In this paper, based on the charge source model and the iterative re-weighted strategy, proposed is a new maximum neighbor weight based iterative sparse source imaging method, termed as CMOSS (Charge source model based Maximum neighbOr weight Sparse Solution). Different from the weight used in focal underdetermined system solver (FOCUSS) where the weight for each point in the discrete solution space is independently updated in iterations, the new designed weight for each point in each iteration is determined by the source solution of the last iteration at both the point and its neighbors. Using such a new weight, the next iteration may have a bigger chance to rectify the local source location bias existed in the previous iteration solution. The simulation studies with comparison to FOCUSS and LORETA for various source configurations were conducted on a realistic 3-shell head model, and the results confirmed the validation of CMOSS for sparse EEG source localization. Finally, CMOSS was applied to localize sources elicited in a visual stimuli experiment, and the result was consistent with those source areas involved in visual processing reported in previous studies.

Information sources and knowledge on vaccination in a population from southern Italy: The ESCULAPIO project.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabacchi, Garden; Costantino, Claudio; Cracchiolo, Manuela; Ferro, Antonio; Marchese, Valentina; Napoli, Giuseppe; Palmeri, Sara; Raia, Daniele; Restivo, Vincenzo; Siddu, Andrea; Vitale, Francesco; Casuccio, Alessandra

2017-02-01

Vaccine knowledge of the general population is shaped by different information sources and strongly influences vaccination attitudes and uptake. The CCM-Italian Ministry of Health ESCULAPIO project attempted to identify the role of such information sources, in order to address adequate strategies to improve information on vaccines and vaccine preventable diseases. In the present study, data on 632 adults from Southern Italy regarding information sources were collected, and their perceived and actual knowledge on vaccinations were compared and analyzed in relation to socio-demographic characteristics and information sources. The main reported reference sources were general practitioners (GPs) (42.5%) and pediatricians (33.1%), followed by mass media (24.1%) and the Internet (17.6%). A total of 45.4% reported they believed to be informed (45.4%), while those estimated to be truly informed were 43.8%. However, as showed in the multivariate logistic regression, people having the perception to be correctly informed ascribed their good knowledge to their profession in the health sector (Adj OR 2.28, CI 1.09-4.77, p informed population thought the responsibility had to be attributed to mass media (AdjOR 0.45, CI 0.22-0.92, p information, instead, were younger (AdjOR 1.64, CI 1.04-2.59, p information about vaccination should be addressed to fortifying healthcare workers knowledge in order to make them public health opinion leaders. General population should be provided with correct indications on trustworthy websites on vaccines to contrast false information supplied by anti-vaccinists on their own websites or social networks pages and on the mass media.

Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

CERN Document Server

Pardoux, Étienne

2016-01-01

This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

Science.gov (United States)

Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

2014-03-01

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

2015-01-01

Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

Modeling Sources of Teaching Self-Efficacy for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Graduate Teaching Assistants

Science.gov (United States)

DeChenne, Sue Ellen; Koziol, Natalie; Needham, Mark; Enochs, Larry

2015-01-01

Graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have a large impact on undergraduate instruction but are often poorly prepared to teach. Teaching self-efficacy, an instructor’s belief in his or her ability to teach specific student populations a specific subject, is an important predictor of teaching skill and student achievement. A model of sources of teaching self-efficacy is developed from the GTA literature. This model indicates that teaching experience, departmental teaching climate (including peer and supervisor relationships), and GTA professional development (PD) can act as sources of teaching self-efficacy. The model is pilot tested with 128 GTAs from nine different STEM departments at a midsized research university. Structural equation modeling reveals that K–12 teaching experience, hours and perceived quality of GTA PD, and perception of the departmental facilitating environment are significant factors that explain 32% of the variance in the teaching self-efficacy of STEM GTAs. This model highlights the important contributions of the departmental environment and GTA PD in the development of teaching self-efficacy for STEM GTAs. PMID:26250562

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

2014-01-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

Modeled population exposures to ozone

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

2017-02-01

Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole

2009-01-01

In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface, and ele......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface...

The Commercial Open Source Business Model

Science.gov (United States)

Riehle, Dirk

Commercial open source software projects are open source software projects that are owned by a single firm that derives a direct and significant revenue stream from the software. Commercial open source at first glance represents an economic paradox: How can a firm earn money if it is making its product available for free as open source? This paper presents the core properties of com mercial open source business models and discusses how they work. Using a commercial open source approach, firms can get to market faster with a superior product at lower cost than possible for traditional competitors. The paper shows how these benefits accrue from an engaged and self-supporting user community. Lacking any prior comprehensive reference, this paper is based on an analysis of public statements by practitioners of commercial open source. It forges the various anecdotes into a coherent description of revenue generation strategies and relevant business functions.

Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

2014-01-01

Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

2013-01-01

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

Significance of population centers as sources of gaseous and dissolved PAHs in the lower Great Lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonough, Carrie A; Khairy, Mohammed A; Muir, Derek C G; Lohmann, Rainer

2014-07-15

Polyethylene passive samplers (PEs) were used to measure concentrations of gaseous and dissolved polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the air and water throughout the lower Great Lakes during summer and fall of 2011. Atmospheric Σ15PAH concentrations ranged from 2.1 ng/m3 in Cape Vincent (NY) to 76.4 ng/m3 in downtown Cleveland (OH). Aqueous Σ18PAH concentrations ranged from 2.4 ng/L at an offshore Lake Erie site to 30.4 ng/L in Sheffield Lake (OH). Gaseous PAH concentrations correlated strongly with population within 3-40 km of the sampling site depending on the compound considered, suggesting that urban centers are a primary source of gaseous PAHs (except retene) in the lower Great Lakes region. The significance of distant population (within 20 km) versus local population (within 3 km) increased with subcooled liquid vapor pressure. Most dissolved aqueous PAHs did not correlate significantly with population, nor were they consistently related to river discharge, wastewater effluents, or precipitation. Air-water exchange calculations implied that diffusive exchange was a source of phenanthrene to surface waters, while acenaphthylene volatilized out of the lakes. Comparison of air-water fluxes with temperature suggested that the significance of urban centers as sources of dissolved PAHs via diffusive exchange may decrease in warmer months.

Discussion of Source Reconstruction Models Using 3D MCG Data

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Massimo De; Uchikawa, Yoshinori

In this study we performed the source reconstruction of magnetocardiographic signals generated by the human heart activity to localize the site of origin of the heart activation. The localizations were performed in a four compartment model of the human volume conductor. The analyses were conducted on normal subjects and on a subject affected by the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Different models of the source activation were used to evaluate whether a general model of the current source can be applied in the study of the cardiac inverse problem. The data analyses were repeated using normal and vector component data of the MCG. The results show that a distributed source model has the better accuracy in performing the source reconstructions, and that 3D MCG data allow finding smaller differences between the different source models.

Model-Based Least Squares Reconstruction of Coded Source Neutron Radiographs: Integrating the ORNL HFIR CG1D Source Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos-Villalobos, Hector J [ORNL; Gregor, Jens [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Bingham, Philip R [ORNL

2014-01-01

At the present, neutron sources cannot be fabricated small and powerful enough in order to achieve high resolution radiography while maintaining an adequate flux. One solution is to employ computational imaging techniques such as a Magnified Coded Source Imaging (CSI) system. A coded-mask is placed between the neutron source and the object. The system resolution is increased by reducing the size of the mask holes and the flux is increased by increasing the size of the coded-mask and/or the number of holes. One limitation of such system is that the resolution of current state-of-the-art scintillator-based detectors caps around 50um. To overcome this challenge, the coded-mask and object are magnified by making the distance from the coded-mask to the object much smaller than the distance from object to detector. In previous work, we have shown via synthetic experiments that our least squares method outperforms other methods in image quality and reconstruction precision because of the modeling of the CSI system components. However, the validation experiments were limited to simplistic neutron sources. In this work, we aim to model the flux distribution of a real neutron source and incorporate such a model in our least squares computational system. We provide a full description of the methodology used to characterize the neutron source and validate the method with synthetic experiments.

Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

2014-11-01

Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

Atmospheric dispersion and inverse modelling for the reconstruction of accidental sources of pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winiarek, Victor

2014-01-01

Uncontrolled releases of pollutant in the atmosphere may be the consequence of various situations: accidents, for instance leaks or explosions in an industrial plant, or terrorist attacks such as biological bombs, especially in urban areas. In the event of such situations, authorities' objectives are various: predict the contaminated zones to apply first countermeasures such as evacuation of concerned population; determine the source location; assess the long-term polluted areas, for instance by deposition of persistent pollutants in the soil. To achieve these objectives, numerical models can be used to model the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We will first present the different processes that govern the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, then the different numerical models that are commonly used in this context. The choice between these models mainly depends of the scale and the details one seeks to take into account. We will then present several inverse modeling methods to estimate the emission as well as statistical methods to estimate prior errors, to which the inversion is very sensitive. Several case studies are presented, using synthetic data as well as real data such as the estimation of source terms from the Fukushima accident in March 2011. From our results, we estimate the Cesium-137 emission to be between 12 and 19 PBq with a standard deviation between 15 and 65% and the Iodine-131 emission to be between 190 and 380 PBq with a standard deviation between 5 and 10%. Concerning the localization of an unknown source of pollutant, two strategies can be considered. On one hand parametric methods use a limited number of parameters to characterize the source term to be reconstructed. To do so, strong assumptions are made on the nature of the source. The inverse problem is hence to estimate these parameters. On the other hand nonparametric methods attempt to reconstruct a full emission field. Several parametric and nonparametric methods are

Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

2017-10-01

An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Population Health in Pediatric Speech and Language Disorders: Available Data Sources and a Research Agenda for the Field.

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Ramesh; Camarata, Stephen; White, Karl; Barbaresi, William; Parish, Susan; Krahn, Gloria

2018-05-17

The aim of the study was to provide an overview of population science as applied to speech and language disorders, illustrate data sources, and advance a research agenda on the epidemiology of these conditions. Computer-aided database searches were performed to identify key national surveys and other sources of data necessary to establish the incidence, prevalence, and course and outcome of speech and language disorders. This article also summarizes a research agenda that could enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of these disorders. Although the data yielded estimates of prevalence and incidence for speech and language disorders, existing sources of data are inadequate to establish reliable rates of incidence, prevalence, and outcomes for speech and language disorders at the population level. Greater support for inclusion of speech and language disorder-relevant questions is necessary in national health surveys to build the population science in the field.

Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šarūnė Beinoraitė

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Juan; Jin, Zhen; Sun, Gui-Quan; Sun, Xiang-Dong; Wang, You-Ming; Huang, Baoxu

2014-05-01

H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.

Earthquake Source Spectral Study beyond the Omega-Square Model

Science.gov (United States)

Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

2017-12-01

Earthquake source spectra have been used for characterizing earthquake source processes quantitatively and, at the same time, simply, so that we can analyze the source spectra for many earthquakes, especially for small earthquakes, at once and compare them each other. A standard model for the source spectra is the omega-square model, which has the flat spectrum and the falloff inversely proportional to the square of frequencies at low and high frequencies, respectively, which are bordered by a corner frequency. The corner frequency has often been converted to the stress drop under the assumption of circular crack models. However, recent studies claimed the existence of another corner frequency [Denolle and Shearer, 2016; Uchide and Imanishi, 2016] thanks to the recent development of seismic networks. We have found that many earthquakes in areas other than the area studied by Uchide and Imanishi [2016] also have source spectra deviating from the omega-square model. Another part of the earthquake spectra we now focus on is the falloff rate at high frequencies, which will affect the seismic energy estimation [e.g., Hirano and Yagi, 2017]. In June, 2016, we deployed seven velocity seismometers in the northern Ibaraki prefecture, where the shallow crustal seismicity mainly with normal-faulting events was activated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We have recorded seismograms at 1000 samples per second and at a short distance from the source, so that we can investigate the high-frequency components of the earthquake source spectra. Although we are still in the stage of discovery and confirmation of the deviation from the standard omega-square model, the update of the earthquake source spectrum model will help us systematically extract more information on the earthquake source process.

Drinking water intake and source patterns within a US-Mexico border population.

Science.gov (United States)

Regnier, Adam; Gurian, Patrick; Mena, Kristina D

2015-01-01

This study was undertaken to identify water intake and source patterns among a population that resides in a hot, arid region on the US-Mexico border. A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted among households in the neighbouring cities of El Paso, TX, USA and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico to obtain data on the quantity and source of water consumed. The study was also designed to identify factors that impact water consumption patterns, including gender, demographics, socio-economic status, cultural characteristics, health status, types of occupations and residences, available water sources and outdoor temperature, among many others. Of all factors studied, outdoor air temperature was found to have the strongest impact upon water intake quantity. Specifically, among the survey participants, when the outdoor air temperature exceeded 90 °F, water consumption increased by 28 %. Additionally, it was found that participants in this region consumed approximately 50 % more water than the values reported in previous studies.

Model predictive control for Z-source power converter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mo, W.; Loh, P.C.; Blaabjerg, Frede

2011-01-01

This paper presents Model Predictive Control (MPC) of impedance-source (commonly known as Z-source) power converter. Output voltage control and current control for Z-source inverter are analyzed and simulated. With MPC's ability of multi- system variables regulation, load current and voltage...

Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J. S. Allen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

PHARAO laser source flight model: Design and performances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lévèque, T., E-mail: thomas.leveque@cnes.fr; Faure, B.; Esnault, F. X.; Delaroche, C.; Massonnet, D.; Grosjean, O.; Buffe, F.; Torresi, P. [Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Bomer, T.; Pichon, A.; Béraud, P.; Lelay, J. P.; Thomin, S. [Sodern, 20 Avenue Descartes, 94451 Limeil-Brévannes (France); Laurent, Ph. [LNE-SYRTE, CNRS, UPMC, Observatoire de Paris, 61 avenue de l’Observatoire, 75014 Paris (France)

2015-03-15

In this paper, we describe the design and the main performances of the PHARAO laser source flight model. PHARAO is a laser cooled cesium clock specially designed for operation in space and the laser source is one of the main sub-systems. The flight model presented in this work is the first remote-controlled laser system designed for spaceborne cold atom manipulation. The main challenges arise from mechanical compatibility with space constraints, which impose a high level of compactness, a low electric power consumption, a wide range of operating temperature, and a vacuum environment. We describe the main functions of the laser source and give an overview of the main technologies developed for this instrument. We present some results of the qualification process. The characteristics of the laser source flight model, and their impact on the clock performances, have been verified in operational conditions.

Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

2015-01-01

To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to

Estimated population exposure from nuclear power production and other radiation sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pochin, E.E.

1976-01-01

Estimates are given of the total radiation dose from all forms of ionizing radiation resulting from nuclear power reduction. A power consumption of 1kW per head of population, derived entirely from nuclear energy, would increase the average radiation exposure of the whole population from 100mrem per year from natural sources (plus about 40mrem per year from medical procedures and other artificial causes) by about 6mrem per year. The genetically signifificant component of this increase would be about 4mrem per year. Available estimates of harm from radiation would indicate that this would give a risk per year per million of population of about 1 fatal induced malignancy, about the same number of malignancies fully treatable by operation, and, after many generations, about the same number of inherited defects, of greater or less severity, per year. Accidental injuries, particularly in constructional and mining work, would cause an estimated 1 fatality and 50 other accidents annually. Indications are given of the number of fatalities and accidents involved in equal power production by alternative methods, and of the value and limitations of such numerical comparisons in reaching decisions on the development of future power programmes

Bayesian mixture models for source separation in MEG

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Homa, Laura; Somersalo, Erkki

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the problem of imaging electromagnetic brain activity from measurements of the induced magnetic field outside the head. This imaging modality, magnetoencephalography (MEG), is known to be severely ill posed, and in order to obtain useful estimates for the activity map, complementary information needs to be used to regularize the problem. In this paper, a particular emphasis is on finding non-superficial focal sources that induce a magnetic field that may be confused with noise due to external sources and with distributed brain noise. The data are assumed to come from a mixture of a focal source and a spatially distributed possibly virtual source; hence, to differentiate between those two components, the problem is solved within a Bayesian framework, with a mixture model prior encoding the information that different sources may be concurrently active. The mixture model prior combines one density that favors strongly focal sources and another that favors spatially distributed sources, interpreted as clutter in the source estimation. Furthermore, to address the challenge of localizing deep focal sources, a novel depth sounding algorithm is suggested, and it is shown with simulated data that the method is able to distinguish between a signal arising from a deep focal source and a clutter signal. (paper)

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Fluctuations in a coupled population model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

2005-01-01

We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

2017-07-28

Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural.

OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Strachan, Neil; Heaps, Charles; Huntington, Hillard; Kypreos, Socrates; Hughes, Alison; Silveira, Semida; DeCarolis, Joe; Bazillian, Morgan; Roehrl, Alexander

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the design and development of the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS). It describes the model's formulation in terms of a 'plain English' description, algebraic formulation, implementation-in terms of its full source code, as well as a detailed description of the model inputs, parameters, and outputs. A key feature of the OSeMOSYS implementation is that it is contained in less than five pages of documented, easily accessible code. Other existing energy system models that do not have this emphasis on compactness and openness makes the barrier to entry by new users much higher, as well as making the addition of innovative new functionality very difficult. The paper begins by describing the rationale for the development of OSeMOSYS and its structure. The current preliminary implementation of the model is then demonstrated for a discrete example. Next, we explain how new development efforts will build on the existing OSeMOSYS codebase. The paper closes with thoughts regarding the organization of the OSeMOSYS community, associated capacity development efforts, and linkages to other open source efforts including adding functionality to the LEAP model. - Highlights: → OSeMOSYS is a new free and open source energy systems. → This model is written in a simple, open, flexible and transparent manner to support teaching. → OSeMOSYS is based on free software and optimizes using a free solver. → This model replicates the results of many popular tools, such as MARKAL. → A link between OSeMOSYS and LEAP has been developed.

The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

-population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Bortolussi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

Application of SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source load, fate, and transport of fecal bacteria in watersheds.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranatunga, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads from SELECT model were input to the SWAT model, and simulate the bacteria transport through the land and in-stream. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on regional land use, population and household forecast (up to 2040). Based on the reductions required to meet the water quality standards in-stream, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

Population pharmacokinetics model of THC used by pulmonary route in occasional cannabis smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsot, A; Audebert, C; Attolini, L; Lacarelle, B; Micallef, J; Blin, O

Cannabis is the most widely used illegal drug in the world. Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main source of the pharmacological effect. Some studies have been carried out and showed significant variability in the described models as the values of the estimated pharmacokinetic parameters. The objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for THC in occasional cannabis smokers. Twelve male volunteers (age: 20-28years, body weight: 62.5-91.0kg), tobacco (3-8 cigarette per day) and cannabis occasional smokers were recruited from the local community. After ad libitum smoking cannabis cigarette according a standardized procedure, 16 blood samples up to 72h were collected. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a non-linear mixed effects model, with NONMEM software. Demographic and biological data were investigated as covariates. A three-compartment model with first-order elimination fitted the data. The model was parameterized in terms of micro constants and central volume of distribution (V 1 ). Normal ALT concentration (6.0 to 45.0IU/l) demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with k 10 . The mean values (%Relative Standard Error (RSE)) for k 10 , k 12 , k 21 , k 23 , k 32 and V 1 were 0.408h -1 (48.8%), 4.070h -1 (21.4%), 0.022h -1 (27.0%), 1.070h -1 (14.3%), 1.060h -1 (16.7%) and 19.10L (39.7%), respectively. We have developed a population pharmacokinetic model able to describe the quantitative relationship between administration of inhaled doses of THC and the observed plasma concentrations after smoking cannabis. In addition, a linear relationship between ALT concentration and value of k 10 has been described and request further investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

1999-01-01

Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

Science.gov (United States)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multi-state models: A comparison to capture-recapture approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Scott, Sillett T.; Chandler, Richard; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

Monte Carlo modelling of large scale NORM sources using MCNP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, J D

2013-12-01

The representative Monte Carlo modelling of large scale planar sources (for comparison to external environmental radiation fields) is undertaken using substantial diameter and thin profile planar cylindrical sources. The relative impact of source extent, soil thickness and sky-shine are investigated to guide decisions relating to representative geometries. In addition, the impact of source to detector distance on the nature of the detector response, for a range of source sizes, has been investigated. These investigations, using an MCNP based model, indicate a soil cylinder of greater than 20 m diameter and of no less than 50 cm depth/height, combined with a 20 m deep sky section above the soil cylinder, are needed to representatively model the semi-infinite plane of uniformly distributed NORM sources. Initial investigation of the effect of detector placement indicate that smaller source sizes may be used to achieve a representative response at shorter source to detector distances. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

Science.gov (United States)

Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

2016-10-01

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

An Empirical Temperature Variance Source Model in Heated Jets

Science.gov (United States)

Khavaran, Abbas; Bridges, James

2012-01-01

An acoustic analogy approach is implemented that models the sources of jet noise in heated jets. The equivalent sources of turbulent mixing noise are recognized as the differences between the fluctuating and Favre-averaged Reynolds stresses and enthalpy fluxes. While in a conventional acoustic analogy only Reynolds stress components are scrutinized for their noise generation properties, it is now accepted that a comprehensive source model should include the additional entropy source term. Following Goldstein s generalized acoustic analogy, the set of Euler equations are divided into two sets of equations that govern a non-radiating base flow plus its residual components. When the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow, the residual equations may be rearranged to form an inhomogeneous third-order wave equation. A general solution is written subsequently using a Green s function method while all non-linear terms are treated as the equivalent sources of aerodynamic sound and are modeled accordingly. In a previous study, a specialized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver was implemented to compute the variance of thermal fluctuations that determine the enthalpy flux source strength. The main objective here is to present an empirical model capable of providing a reasonable estimate of the stagnation temperature variance in a jet. Such a model is parameterized as a function of the mean stagnation temperature gradient in the jet, and is evaluated using commonly available RANS solvers. The ensuing thermal source distribution is compared with measurements as well as computational result from a dedicated RANS solver that employs an enthalpy variance and dissipation rate model. Turbulent mixing noise predictions are presented for a wide range of jet temperature ratios from 1.0 to 3.20.

Repairing business process models as retrieved from source code

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández-Ropero, M.; Reijers, H.A.; Pérez-Castillo, R.; Piattini, M.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, H.A.; Soffer, P.; Krogstie, J.; Schmidt, R.; Halpin, T.; Bider, I.

2013-01-01

The static analysis of source code has become a feasible solution to obtain underlying business process models from existing information systems. Due to the fact that not all information can be automatically derived from source code (e.g., consider manual activities), such business process models

An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilberto González Parra

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method

Science.gov (United States)

Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.

2017-10-01

Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian-Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

Modeling the NPE with finite sources and empirical Green`s functions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutchings, L.; Kasameyer, P.; Goldstein, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)] [and others

1994-12-31

In order to better understand the source characteristics of both nuclear and chemical explosions for purposes of discrimination, we have modeled the NPE chemical explosion as a finite source and with empirical Green`s functions. Seismograms are synthesized at four sties to test the validity of source models. We use a smaller chemical explosion detonated in the vicinity of the working point to obtain empirical Green`s functions. Empirical Green`s functions contain all the linear information of the geology along the propagation path and recording site, which are identical for chemical or nuclear explosions, and therefore reduce the variability in modeling the source of the larger event. We further constrain the solution to have the overall source duration obtained from point-source deconvolution results. In modeling the source, we consider both an elastic source on a spherical surface and an inelastic expanding spherical volume source. We found that the spherical volume solution provides better fits to observed seismograms. The potential to identify secondary sources was examined, but the resolution is too poor to be definitive.

Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data

Science.gov (United States)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank

2013-04-01

In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source

Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krisztian Magori

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

A model for superliminal radio sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milgrom, M.; Bahcall, J.N.

1977-01-01

A geometrical model for superluminal radio sources is described. Six predictions that can be tested by observations are summarized. The results are in agreement with all the available observations. In this model, the Hubble constant is the only numerical parameter that is important in interpreting the observed rates of change of angular separations for small redshifts. The available observations imply that H 0 is less than 55 km/s/Mpc if the model is correct. (author)

Topographic filtering simulation model for sediment source apportionment

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Se Jong; Wilcock, Peter; Hobbs, Benjamin

2018-05-01

We propose a Topographic Filtering simulation model (Topofilter) that can be used to identify those locations that are likely to contribute most of the sediment load delivered from a watershed. The reduced complexity model links spatially distributed estimates of annual soil erosion, high-resolution topography, and observed sediment loading to determine the distribution of sediment delivery ratio across a watershed. The model uses two simple two-parameter topographic transfer functions based on the distance and change in elevation from upland sources to the nearest stream channel and then down the stream network. The approach does not attempt to find a single best-calibrated solution of sediment delivery, but uses a model conditioning approach to develop a large number of possible solutions. For each model run, locations that contribute to 90% of the sediment loading are identified and those locations that appear in this set in most of the 10,000 model runs are identified as the sources that are most likely to contribute to most of the sediment delivered to the watershed outlet. Because the underlying model is quite simple and strongly anchored by reliable information on soil erosion, topography, and sediment load, we believe that the ensemble of simulation outputs provides a useful basis for identifying the dominant sediment sources in the watershed.

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

Science.gov (United States)

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

Macronutrient Distribution and Dietary Sources in the Spanish Population: Findings from the ANIBES Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma Ruiz

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Our aim was to analyze dietary macronutrient intake and its main sources according to sex and age. Results were derived from the ANIBES (“Anthropometry, Intake and Energy Balance in Spain” cross-sectional study using a nationally-representative sample of the Spanish population (9–75 years old. Mean dietary protein intake was 74.5 ± 22.4 g/day, with meat and meat products as the main sources (33.0%. Mean carbohydrate intake was 185.4 ± 60.9 g/day and was higher in children and adolescents; grains (49%, mainly bread, were the main contributor. Milk and dairy products (23% ranked first for sugar intake. Mean lipid intake was 78.1 ± 26.1 g/day and was higher in younger age groups; contributions were mainly from oils and fats (32.5%; olive oil 25.6% and meat and meat products (22.0%. Lipid profiles showed relatively high monounsaturated fatty acid intake, of which olive oil contributed 38.8%. Saturated fatty acids were mainly (>70% combined from meat and meat products, milk and dairy products and oils and fats. Polyunsaturated fatty acids were mainly from oils and fats (31.5%. The macronutrient intake and distribution in the Spanish population is far from population reference intakes and nutritional goals, especially for children and adolescents.

Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

Science.gov (United States)

Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

2018-01-01

This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Cao

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

A comprehensive assessment of mercury exposure in penguin populations throughout the Southern Hemisphere: Using trophic calculations to identify sources of population-level variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brasso, Rebecka L.; Chiaradia, André; Polito, Michael J.; Raya Rey, Andrea; Emslie, Steven D.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Mercury concentrations documented for 10 species of penguins (26 breeding populations). • Mercury concentrations ⩽2.00 ppm in feathers from 18/26 penguin populations. • Trophic level calculations revealed source of population-level variation in mercury. • First documentation of geographic mercury ‘hotspots’ for penguin populations. - Abstract: The wide geographic distribution of penguins (Order Sphenisciformes) throughout the Southern Hemisphere provided a unique opportunity to use a single taxonomic group as biomonitors of mercury among geographically distinct marine ecosystems. Mercury concentrations were compared among ten species of penguins representing 26 geographically distinct breeding populations. Mercury concentrations were relatively low (⩽2.00 ppm) in feathers from 18/26 populations considered. Population-level differences in trophic level explained variation in mercury concentrations among Little, King, and Gentoo penguin populations. However, Southern Rockhopper and Magellanic penguins breeding on Staten Island, Tierra del Fuego, had the highest mercury concentrations relative to their conspecifics despite foraging at a lower trophic level. The concurrent use of stable isotope and mercury data allowed us to document penguin populations at the greatest risk of exposure to harmful concentrations of mercury as a result of foraging at a high trophic level or in geographic ‘hot spots’ of mercury availability

Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

2007-01-01

An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

OpenAIRE

Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

2014-01-01

Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taeuber, Uwe C

2011-01-01

It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

Partitioning detectability components in populations subject to within-season temporary emigration using binomial mixture models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katherine M O'Donnell

Full Text Available Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model's potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3-5 surveys each spring and fall 2010-2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling, while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling. By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and

On the sources of technological change: What do the models assume?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, Leon; Weyant, John; Edmonds, Jae

2008-01-01

It is widely acknowledged that technological change can substantially reduce the costs of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This paper discusses the sources of technological change and the representations of these sources in formal models of energy and the environment. The paper distinguishes between three major sources of technological change-R and D, learning-by-doing and spillovers-and introduces a conceptual framework for linking modeling approaches to assumptions about these real-world sources. A selective review of modeling approaches, including those employing exogenous technological change, suggests that most formal models have meaningful real-world interpretations that focus on a subset of possible sources of technological change while downplaying the roles of others

The Unfolding of Value Sources During Online Business Model Transformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadja Hoßbach

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: In the magazine publishing industry, viable online business models are still rare to absent. To prepare for the ‘digital future’ and safeguard their long-term survival, many publishers are currently in the process of transforming their online business model. Against this backdrop, this study aims to develop a deeper understanding of (1 how the different building blocks of an online business model are transformed over time and (2 how sources of value creation unfold during this transformation process. Methodology: To answer our research question, we conducted a longitudinal case study with a leading German business magazine publisher (called BIZ. Data was triangulated from multiple sources including interviews, internal documents, and direct observations. Findings: Based on our case study, we nd that BIZ used the transformation process to differentiate its online business model from its traditional print business model along several dimensions, and that BIZ’s online business model changed from an efficiency- to a complementarity- to a novelty-based model during this process. Research implications: Our findings suggest that different business model transformation phases relate to different value sources, questioning the appropriateness of value source-based approaches for classifying business models. Practical implications: The results of our case study highlight the need for online-offline business model differentiation and point to the important distinction between service and product differentiation. Originality: Our study contributes to the business model literature by applying a dynamic and holistic perspective on the link between online business model changes and unfolding value sources.

Modeling livestock population structure: a geospatial database for Ontario swine farms.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Salah Uddin; O'Sullivan, Terri L; Poljak, Zvonimir; Alsop, Janet; Greer, Amy L

2018-01-30

Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. We developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario. In the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.

Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2011-01-01

population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

Science.gov (United States)

Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

2018-04-01

A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

1995-01-01

A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

Science.gov (United States)

Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

2016-03-01

Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

COMBINING SOURCES IN STABLE ISOTOPE MIXING MODELS: ALTERNATIVE METHODS

Science.gov (United States)

Stable isotope mixing models are often used to quantify source contributions to a mixture. Examples include pollution source identification; trophic web studies; analysis of water sources for soils, plants, or water bodies; and many others. A common problem is having too many s...

Application of source-receptor models to determine source areas of biological components (pollen and butterflies)

OpenAIRE

M. Alarcón; M. Àvila; J. Belmonte; C. Stefanescu; R. Izquierdo

2010-01-01

The source-receptor models allow the establishment of relationships between a receptor point (sampling point) and the probable source areas (regions of emission) through the association of concentration values at the receptor point with the corresponding atmospheric back-trajectories, and, together with other techniques, to interpret transport phenomena on a synoptic scale. These models are generally used in air pollution studies to determine the areas of origin of chemical compounds measured...

The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle

OpenAIRE

Laaksonen, Pekka

2011-01-01

Laaksonen, Pekka The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle Jyväskylä: Jyväskylän yliopisto, 2011, 42 s. Tietojärjestelmätiede, kandidaatintutkielma Ohjaaja(t): Käkölä, Timo Tässä kandidaatintutkielmassa selvitettiin sitä, miten the eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers-mallin käytännöt (practices) ovat liittyneet tietä-myksenhallinnan neljään prosessiin: tiedon luominen, varastointi/noutaminen, jakamine...

Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

Science.gov (United States)

Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

1998-01-01

Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

2014-01-01

High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

The Growth of open source: A look at how companies are utilizing open source software in their business models

OpenAIRE

Feare, David

2009-01-01

This paper examines how open source software is being incorporated into the business models of companies in the software industry. The goal is to answer the question of whether the open source model can help sustain economic growth. While some companies are able to maintain a "pure" open source approach with their business model, the reality is that most companies are relying on proprietary add-on value in order to generate revenue because open source itself is simply not big business. Ultima...

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

2009-01-01

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

2009-10-30

In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

2015-08-01

The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT MODELING USING THE BASINS NON-POINT SOURCE MODEL

Science.gov (United States)

The Non-Point Source Model (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran, or HSPF) within the EPA Office of Water's BASINS watershed modeling system was used to simulate streamflow and total suspended solids within Contentnea Creek, North Carolina, which is a tributary of the Neuse Rive...

Modelling population distribution using remote sensing imagery and location-based data

Science.gov (United States)

Song, J.; Prishchepov, A. V.

2017-12-01

Detailed spatial distribution of population density is essential for city studies such as urban planning, environmental pollution and city emergency, even estimate pressure on the environment and human exposure and risks to health. However, most of the researches used census data as the detailed dynamic population distribution are difficult to acquire, especially in microscale research. This research describes a method using remote sensing imagery and location-based data to model population distribution at the function zone level. Firstly, urban functional zones within a city were mapped by high-resolution remote sensing images and POIs. The workflow of functional zones extraction includes five parts: (1) Urban land use classification. (2) Segmenting images in built-up area. (3) Identification of functional segments by POIs. (4) Identification of functional blocks by functional segmentation and weight coefficients. (5) Assessing accuracy by validation points. The result showed as Fig.1. Secondly, we applied ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression to assess spatial nonstationary relationship between light digital number (DN) and population density of sampling points. The two methods were employed to predict the population distribution over the research area. The R²of GWR model were in the order of 0.7 and typically showed significant variations over the region than traditional OLS model. The result showed as Fig.2.Validation with sampling points of population density demonstrated that the result predicted by the GWR model correlated well with light value. The result showed as Fig.3. Results showed: (1) Population density is not linear correlated with light brightness using global model. (2) VIIRS night-time light data could estimate population density integrating functional zones at city level. (3) GWR is a robust model to map population distribution, the adjusted R2 of corresponding GWR models were higher than the optimal OLS models

Faster universal modeling for two source classes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nowbakht, A.; Willems, F.M.J.; Macq, B.; Quisquater, J.-J.

2002-01-01

The Universal Modeling algorithms proposed in [2] for two general classes of finite-context sources are reviewed. The above methods were constructed by viewing a model structure as a partition of the context space and realizing that a partition can be reached through successive splits. Here we start

The effects of harvest on waterfowl populations

Science.gov (United States)

Cooch, Evan G.; Guillemain, Matthieu; Boomer, G Scott; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

Change in the size of populations over space and time is, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change in the abundance is the simple difference between the number of individuals entering the population and the number leaving the population, either or both of which may change in response to factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the population. While harvest of individuals from a population constitutes a clear extrinsic source of removal of individuals, the response of populations to harvest is frequently complex, reflecting an interaction of harvest with one or more population processes. Here we consider the role of these interactions, and factors influencing them, on the effective harvest management of waterfowl populations. We review historical ideas concerning harvest and discuss the relationship(s) between waterfowl life histories and the development and application of population models to inform harvest management. The influence of population structure (age, spatial) on derivation of optimal harvest strategies (with and without explicit consideration of various sources of uncertainty) is considered. In addition to population structure, we discuss how the optimal harvest strategy may be influenced by: 1) patterns of density-dependence in one or more vital rates, and 2) heterogeneity in vital rates among individuals within an age-sex-size class. Although derivation of the optimal harvest strategy for simple population models (with or without structure) is generally straightforward, there are several potential difficulties in application. In particular, uncertainty concerning the population structure at the time of harvest, and the ability to regulate the structure of the harvest itself, are significant complications. We therefore review the evidence of effects of harvest on waterfowl populations. Some of this evidence has

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

2013-10-01

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A 1D ion species model for an RF driven negative ion source

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, I.; Holmes, A. J. T.

2017-08-01

A one-dimensional model for an RF driven negative ion source has been developed based on an inductive discharge. The RF source differs from traditional filament and arc ion sources because there are no primary electrons present, and is simply composed of an antenna region (driver) and a main plasma discharge region. However the model does still make use of the classical plasma transport equations for particle energy and flow, which have previously worked well for modelling DC driven sources. The model has been developed primarily to model the Small Negative Ion Facility (SNIF) ion source at CCFE, but may be easily adapted to model other RF sources. Currently the model considers the hydrogen ion species, and provides a detailed description of the plasma parameters along the source axis, i.e. plasma temperature, density and potential, as well as current densities and species fluxes. The inputs to the model are currently the RF power, the magnetic filter field and the source gas pressure. Results from the model are presented and where possible compared to existing experimental data from SNIF, with varying RF power, source pressure.

Open Source Software Success Model for Iran: End-User Satisfaction Viewpoint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Niknafs

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The open source software development is notable option for software companies. Recent years, many advantages of this software type are cause of move to that in Iran. National security and international restrictions problems and also software and services costs and more other problems intensified importance of use of this software. Users and their viewpoints are the critical success factor in the software plans. But there is not an appropriate model for open source software case in Iran. This research tried to develop a measuring open source software success model for Iran. By use of data gathered from open source users and online survey the model was tested. The results showed that components by positive effect on open source success were user satisfaction, open source community services quality, open source quality, copyright and security.

Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

KAUST Repository

Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin

2013-01-01

statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point

Model Predictive Control of Z-source Neutral Point Clamped Inverter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mo, Wei; Loh, Poh Chiang; Blaabjerg, Frede

2011-01-01

This paper presents Model Predictive Control (MPC) of Z-source Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) inverter. For illustration, current control of Z-source NPC grid-connected inverter is analyzed and simulated. With MPC’s advantage of easily including system constraints, load current, impedance network...... response are obtained at the same time with a formulated Z-source NPC inverter network model. Operation steady state and transient state simulation results of MPC are going to be presented, which shows good reference tracking ability of this method. It provides new control method for Z-source NPC inverter...

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

Cosmogenic photons strongly constrain UHECR source models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Vliet Arjen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available With the newest version of our Monte Carlo code for ultra-high-energy cosmic ray (UHECR propagation, CRPropa 3, the flux of neutrinos and photons due to interactions of UHECRs with extragalactic background light can be predicted. Together with the recently updated data for the isotropic diffuse gamma-ray background (IGRB by Fermi LAT, it is now possible to severely constrain UHECR source models. The evolution of the UHECR sources especially plays an important role in the determination of the expected secondary photon spectrum. Pure proton UHECR models are already strongly constrained, primarily by the highest energy bins of Fermi LAT’s IGRB, as long as their number density is not strongly peaked at recent times.

Stochastic modeling for reliability shocks, burn-in and heterogeneous populations

CERN Document Server

Finkelstein, Maxim

2013-01-01

Focusing on shocks modeling, burn-in and heterogeneous populations, Stochastic Modeling for Reliability naturally combines these three topics in the unified stochastic framework and presents numerous practical examples that illustrate recent theoretical findings of the authors.  The populations of manufactured items in industry are usually heterogeneous. However, the conventional reliability analysis is performed under the implicit assumption of homogeneity, which can result in distortion of the corresponding reliability indices and various misconceptions. Stochastic Modeling for Reliability fills this gap and presents the basics and further developments of reliability theory for heterogeneous populations. Specifically, the authors consider burn-in as a method of elimination of ‘weak’ items from heterogeneous populations. The real life objects are operating in a changing environment. One of the ways to model an impact of this environment is via the external shocks occurring in accordance with some stocha...

Assessing the population coverage of a health demographic surveillance system using satellite imagery and crowd-sourcing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurelio Di Pasquale

Full Text Available Remotely sensed data can serve as an independent source of information about the location of residential structures in areas under demographic and health surveillance. We report on results obtained combining satellite imagery, imported from Bing, with location data routinely collected using the built-in GPS sensors of tablet computers, to assess completeness of population coverage in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Malawi. The Majete Malaria Project Health and Demographic Surveillance System, in Malawi, started in 2014 to support a project with the aim of studying the reduction of malaria using an integrated control approach by rolling out insecticide treated nets and improved case management supplemented with house improvement and larval source management. In order to support the monitoring of the trial a Health and Demographic Surveillance System was established in the area that surrounds the Majete Wildlife Reserve (1600 km2, using the OpenHDS data system. We compared house locations obtained using GPS recordings on mobile devices during the demographic surveillance census round with those acquired from satellite imagery. Volunteers were recruited through the crowdcrafting.org platform to identify building structures on the images, which enabled the compilation of a database with coordinates of potential residences. For every building identified on these satellite images by the volunteers (11,046 buildings identified of which 3424 (ca. 30% were part of the censused area, we calculated the distance to the nearest house enumerated on the ground by fieldworkers during the census round of the HDSS. A random sample of buildings (85 structures identified on satellite images without a nearby location enrolled in the census were visited by a fieldworker to determine how many were missed during the baseline census survey, if any were missed. The findings from this ground-truthing effort suggest that a high population coverage was

An improved export coefficient model to estimate non-point source phosphorus pollution risks under complex precipitation and terrain conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xian; Chen, Liding; Sun, Ranhao; Jing, Yongcai

2018-05-15

To control non-point source (NPS) pollution, it is important to estimate NPS pollution exports and identify sources of pollution. Precipitation and terrain have large impacts on the export and transport of NPS pollutants. We established an improved export coefficient model (IECM) to estimate the amount of agricultural and rural NPS total phosphorus (TP) exported from the Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in northern China. The TP concentrations of rivers from 35 selected catchments in the LRB were used to test the model's explanation capacity and accuracy. The simulation results showed that, in 2013, the average TP export was 57.20 t at the catchment scale. The mean TP export intensity in the LRB was 289.40 kg/km 2 , which was much higher than those of other basins in China. In the LRB topographic regions, the TP export intensity was the highest in the south Yanshan Mountains and was followed by the plain area, the north Yanshan Mountains, and the Bashang Plateau. Among the three pollution categories, the contribution ratios to TP export were, from high to low, the rural population (59.44%), livestock husbandry (22.24%), and land-use types (18.32%). Among all ten pollution sources, the contribution ratios from the rural population (59.44%), pigs (14.40%), and arable land (10.52%) ranked as the top three sources. This study provides information that decision makers and planners can use to develop sustainable measures for the prevention and control of NPS pollution in semi-arid regions.

System level modelling with open source tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Mikkel Koefoed; Madsen, Jan; Niaki, Seyed Hosein Attarzadeh

, called ForSyDe. ForSyDe is available under the open Source approach, which allows small and medium enterprises (SME) to get easy access to advanced modeling capabilities and tools. We give an introduction to the design methodology through the system level modeling of a simple industrial use case, and we...

Modeling the Galaxy-Halo Connection: An open-source approach with Halotools

Science.gov (United States)

Hearin, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although the modern form of galaxy-halo modeling has been in place for over ten years, there exists no common code base for carrying out large-scale structure calculations. Considering, for example, the advances in CMB science made possible by Boltzmann-solvers such as CMBFast, CAMB and CLASS, there are clear precedents for how theorists working in a well-defined subfield can mutually benefit from such a code base. Motivated by these and other examples, I present Halotools: an open-source, object-oriented python package for building and testing models of the galaxy-halo connection. Halotools is community-driven, and already includes contributions from over a dozen scientists spread across numerous universities. Designed with high-speed performance in mind, the package generates mock observations of synthetic galaxy populations with sufficient speed to conduct expansive MCMC likelihood analyses over a diverse and highly customizable set of models. The package includes an automated test suite and extensive web-hosted documentation and tutorials (halotools.readthedocs.org). I conclude the talk by describing how Halotools can be used to analyze existing datasets to obtain robust and novel constraints on galaxy evolution models, and by outlining the Halotools program to prepare the field of cosmology for the arrival of Stage IV dark energy experiments.

Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

Science.gov (United States)

Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

2013-01-01

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

Rate-control algorithms testing by using video source model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Belyaev, Evgeny; Turlikov, Andrey; Ukhanova, Anna

2008-01-01

In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set.......In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set....

Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Dubovik

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

Zoonotic disease in a peripheral population: persistence and transmission of Leishmania major in a putative sink-source system in the Negev Highlands, Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Ruti; Wasserberg, Gideon; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P

2014-08-01

Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the "mainland" or the "source" patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau ("island patch" or "sink patch") are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change.

Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Saikia, C. K.; Helmberger, D. V.; Stead, R. J.; Woods, B. B.

- It has proven difficult to uniquely untangle the source and propagation effects on the observed seismic data from underground nuclear explosions, even when large quantities of near-source, broadband data are available for analysis. This leads to uncertainties in our ability to quantify the nuclear seismic source function and, consequently the accuracy of seismic yield estimates for underground explosions. Extensive deterministic modeling analyses of the seismic data recorded from underground explosions at a variety of test sites have been conducted over the years and the results of these studies suggest that variations in the seismic source characteristics between test sites may be contributing to the observed differences in the magnitude/yield relations applicable at those sites. This contributes to our uncertainty in the determination of seismic yield estimates for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. In this paper we review issues involving the relationship of Nevada Test Site (NTS) source scaling laws to those at other sites. The Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) indicates that a magnitude (mb) bias (δmb) exists between the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Nevada test site (NTS) in the United States. Generally this δmb is attributed to differential attenuation in the upper-mantle beneath the two test sites. This assumption results in rather large estimates of yield for large mb tunnel shots at Novaya Zemlya. A re-examination of the US testing experiments suggests that this δmb bias can partly be explained by anomalous NTS (Pahute) source characteristics. This interpretation is based on the modeling of US events at a number of test sites. Using a modified Haskell source description, we investigated the influence of the source Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) parameters ψ ∞ , K and B by fitting short- and long-period data simultaneously, including the near-field body and surface waves. In general

A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

2015-07-14

The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

Developing seismogenic source models based on geologic fault data

Science.gov (United States)

Haller, Kathleen M.; Basili, Roberto

2011-01-01

Calculating seismic hazard usually requires input that includes seismicity associated with known faults, historical earthquake catalogs, geodesy, and models of ground shaking. This paper will address the input generally derived from geologic studies that augment the short historical catalog to predict ground shaking at time scales of tens, hundreds, or thousands of years (e.g., SSHAC 1997). A seismogenic source model, terminology we adopt here for a fault source model, includes explicit three-dimensional faults deemed capable of generating ground motions of engineering significance within a specified time frame of interest. In tectonically active regions of the world, such as near plate boundaries, multiple seismic cycles span a few hundred to a few thousand years. In contrast, in less active regions hundreds of kilometers from the nearest plate boundary, seismic cycles generally are thousands to tens of thousands of years long. Therefore, one should include sources having both longer recurrence intervals and possibly older times of most recent rupture in less active regions of the world rather than restricting the model to include only Holocene faults (i.e., those with evidence of large-magnitude earthquakes in the past 11,500 years) as is the practice in tectonically active regions with high deformation rates. During the past 15 years, our institutions independently developed databases to characterize seismogenic sources based on geologic data at a national scale. Our goal here is to compare the content of these two publicly available seismogenic source models compiled for the primary purpose of supporting seismic hazard calculations by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); hereinafter we refer to the two seismogenic source models as INGV and USGS, respectively. This comparison is timely because new initiatives are emerging to characterize seismogenic sources at the continental scale (e.g., SHARE in the

A collisional radiative model of hydrogen plasmas developed for diagnostic purposes of negative ion sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iordanova, Snejana, E-mail: snejana@phys.uni-sofia.bg; Paunska, Tsvetelina [Faculty of Physics, Sofia University, BG-1164 Sofia (Bulgaria)

2016-02-15

A collisional radiative model of low-pressure hydrogen plasmas is elaborated and applied in optical emission spectroscopy diagnostics of a single element of a matrix source of negative hydrogen ions. The model accounts for the main processes determining both the population densities of the first ten states of the hydrogen atom and the densities of the positive hydrogen ions H{sup +}, H{sub 2}{sup +}, and H{sub 3}{sup +}. In the calculations, the electron density and electron temperature are varied whereas the atomic and molecular temperatures are included as experimentally obtained external parameters. The ratio of the H{sub α} to H{sub β} line intensities is calculated from the numerical results for the excited state population densities, obtained as a solution of the set of the steady-state rate balance equations. The comparison of measured and theoretically obtained ratios of line intensities yields the values of the electron density and temperature as well as of the degree of dissociation, i.e., of the parameters which have a crucial role for the volume production of the negative ions.

Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

CERN Document Server

Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

2016-01-01

This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

2017-12-01

The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

The faint radio source population at 15.7 GHz - II. Multi-wavelength properties

Science.gov (United States)

Whittam, I. H.; Riley, J. M.; Green, D. A.; Jarvis, M. J.; Vaccari, M.

2015-11-01

A complete, flux density limited sample of 96 faint (>0.5 mJy) radio sources is selected from the 10C survey at 15.7 GHz in the Lockman Hole. We have matched this sample to a range of multi-wavelength catalogues, including Spitzer Extragalactic Representative Volume Survey, Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic survey, United Kingdom Infrared Telescope Infrared Deep Sky Survey and optical data; multi-wavelength counterparts are found for 80 of the 96 sources and spectroscopic redshifts are available for 24 sources. Photometric redshifts are estimated for the sources with multi-wavelength data available; the median redshift of the sample is 0.91 with an interquartile range of 0.84. Radio-to-optical ratios show that at least 94 per cent of the sample are radio loud, indicating that the 10C sample is dominated by radio galaxies. This is in contrast to samples selected at lower frequencies, where radio-quiet AGN and star-forming galaxies are present in significant numbers at these flux density levels. All six radio-quiet sources have rising radio spectra, suggesting that they are dominated by AGN emission. These results confirm the conclusions of Paper I that the faint, flat-spectrum sources which are found to dominate the 10C sample below ˜1 mJy are the cores of radio galaxies. The properties of the 10C sample are compared to the Square Kilometre Array Design Studies Simulated Skies; a population of low-redshift star-forming galaxies predicted by the simulation is not found in the observed sample.

Modeling Source Water TOC Using Hydroclimate Variables and Local Polynomial Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Samson, Carleigh C; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Summers, R Scott

2016-04-19

To control disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking water, an understanding of the source water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration variability can be critical. Previously, TOC concentrations in water treatment plant source waters have been modeled using streamflow data. However, the lack of streamflow data or unimpaired flow scenarios makes it difficult to model TOC. In addition, TOC variability under climate change further exacerbates the problem. Here we proposed a modeling approach based on local polynomial regression that uses climate, e.g. temperature, and land surface, e.g., soil moisture, variables as predictors of TOC concentration, obviating the need for streamflow. The local polynomial approach has the ability to capture non-Gaussian and nonlinear features that might be present in the relationships. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated using source water quality and climate data in three case study locations with surface source waters including river and reservoir sources. The models show good predictive skill in general at these locations, with lower skills at locations with the most anthropogenic influences in their streams. Source water TOC predictive models can provide water treatment utilities important information for making treatment decisions for DBP regulation compliance under future climate scenarios.

Using a Population Model to Inform the Management of River Flows and Invasive Carp ( Cyprinus carpio)

Science.gov (United States)

Koehn, John D.; Todd, Charles R.; Zampatti, Brenton P.; Stuart, Ivor G.; Conallin, Anthony; Thwaites, Leigh; Ye, Qifeng

2018-03-01

Carp are a highly successful invasive fish species, now widespread, abundant and considered a pest in south-eastern Australia. To date, most management effort has been directed at reducing abundances of adult fish, with little consideration of population growth through reproduction. Environmental water allocations are now an important option for the rehabilitation of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin. As carp respond to flows, there is concern that environmental watering may cause floodplain inundation and provide access to spawning habitats subsequently causing unwanted population increase. This is a management conundrum that needs to be carefully considered within the context of contemporary river flow management (natural, environmental, irrigation). This paper uses a population model to investigate flow-related carp population dynamics for three case studies in the Murray-Darling Basin: (1) river and terminal lakes; (2) wetlands and floodplain lakes; and (3) complex river channel and floodplain system. Results highlight distinctive outcomes depending on site characteristics. In particular, the terminal lakes maintain a significant source carp population regardless of river flow; hence any additional within-channel environmental flows are likely to have little impact on carp populations. In contrast, large-scale removal of carp from the lakes may be beneficial, especially in times of extended low river flows. Case studies 2 and 3 show how wetlands, floodplain lakes and the floodplain itself can now often be inundated for several months over the carp spawning season by high volume flows provided for irrigation or water transfers. Such inundations can be a major driver of carp populations, compared to within channel flows that have relatively little effecton recruitment. The use of a population model that incorporates river flows and different habitats for this flow-responsive species, allows for the comparison of likely population

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

OpenAIRE

A.M. Woodd

1999-01-01

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

Analysis of the rate setting system on Russia population exposure limitation by natural irradiation sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stamat, I.P.

2009-01-01

In this work the condition of the legal securing of radiation safety system for the population of Russia under the influence of natural sources of radiation was analyzed. The system had been created during the latter 30 years. The ways of its improvement and harmonization according to the recommendations of authoritative organization were examined

Modeling heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads using diffusion-advection PDEs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moura, Scott; Ruiz, Victor; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

2013-01-01

This paper focuses on developing a partial differential equation (PDE)-based model and parameter identification scheme for heterogeneous populations of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs). First, a coupled two-state hyperbolic PDE model for homogenous TCL populations is derived. This model i...

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Woodd

1999-07-01

Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

2018-02-03

For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

Science.gov (United States)

ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

2018-01-01

Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

Science.gov (United States)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Y.; Levy, J.I.; Evans, J.S.; Hammitt, J.K. [Harvard University, Boston, MA (United States). School of Public Health

2006-04-15

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 x 10{sup -5}), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 x 10{sup -6}), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 x 10{sup -6}), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 x 10{sup -6}). In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants, with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling.

Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

Science.gov (United States)

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-02-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Nutrient load estimates for Manila Bay, Philippines using population data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sotto, Lara Patricia A; Beusen, Arthur H W; Villanoy, Cesar L.; Bouwman, Lex F.; Jacinto, Gil S.

2015-01-01

A major source of nutrient load to periodically hypoxic Manila Bay is the urban nutrient waste water flow from humans and industries to surface water. In Manila alone, the population density is as high as 19,137 people/km2. A model based on a global point source model by Morée et al. (2013) was used

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-02-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

A comparison of PCA and PMF models for source identification of fugitive methane emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Assan, Sabina; Baudic, Alexia; Bsaibes, Sandy; Gros, Valerie; Ciais, Philippe; Staufer, Johannes; Robinson, Rod; Vogel, Felix

2017-04-01

Methane (CH_4) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 28-32 times that of carbon dioxide (CO_2) on a 100 year period, and even greater on shorter timescales [Etminan, et al., 2016, Allen, 2014]. Thus, despite its relatively short life time and smaller emission quantities compared to CO_2, CH4 emissions contribute to approximately 20{%} of today's anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming [Kirschke et al., 2013]. Major anthropogenic sources include livestock (enteric fermentation), oil and gas production and distribution, landfills, and wastewater emissions [EPA, 2011]. Especially in densely populated areas multiple CH4 sources can be found in close vicinity. Thus, when measuring CH4 emissions at local scales it is necessary to distinguish between different CH4 source categories to effectively quantify the contribution of each sector and aid the implementation of greenhouse gas reduction strategies. To this end, source apportionment models can be used to aid the interpretation of spatial and temporal patterns in order to identify and characterise emission sources. The focus of this study is to evaluate two common linear receptor models, namely Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) for CH4 source apportionment. The statistical models I will present combine continuous in-situ CH4 , C_2H_6, δ^1^3CH4 measured using a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) instrument [Assan et al. 2016] with volatile organic compound (VOC) observations performed using Gas Chromatography (GC) in order to explain the underlying variance of the data. The strengths and weaknesses of both models are identified for data collected in multi-source environments in the vicinity of four different types of sites; an agricultural farm with cattle, a natural gas compressor station, a wastewater treatment plant, and a pari-urban location in the Ile de France region impacted by various sources. To conclude, receptor model results to separate statistically the

Selection of models to calculate the LLW source term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, T.M.

1991-10-01

Performance assessment of a LLW disposal facility begins with an estimation of the rate at which radionuclides migrate out of the facility (i.e., the source term). The focus of this work is to develop a methodology for calculating the source term. In general, the source term is influenced by the radionuclide inventory, the wasteforms and containers used to dispose of the inventory, and the physical processes that lead to release from the facility (fluid flow, container degradation, wasteform leaching, and radionuclide transport). In turn, many of these physical processes are influenced by the design of the disposal facility (e.g., infiltration of water). The complexity of the problem and the absence of appropriate data prevent development of an entirely mechanistic representation of radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Typically, a number of assumptions, based on knowledge of the disposal system, are used to simplify the problem. This document provides a brief overview of disposal practices and reviews existing source term models as background for selecting appropriate models for estimating the source term. The selection rationale and the mathematical details of the models are presented. Finally, guidance is presented for combining the inventory data with appropriate mechanisms describing release from the disposal facility. 44 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

Modeling Noise Sources and Propagation in External Gear Pumps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangbeom Woo

2017-07-01

Full Text Available As a key component in power transfer, positive displacement machines often represent the major source of noise in hydraulic systems. Thus, investigation into the sources of noise and discovering strategies to reduce noise is a key part of improving the performance of current hydraulic systems, as well as applying fluid power systems to a wider range of applications. The present work aims at developing modeling techniques on the topic of noise generation caused by external gear pumps for high pressure applications, which can be useful and effective in investigating the interaction between noise sources and radiated noise and establishing the design guide for a quiet pump. In particular, this study classifies the internal noise sources into four types of effective load functions and, in the proposed model, these load functions are applied to the corresponding areas of the pump case in a realistic way. Vibration and sound radiation can then be predicted using a combined finite element and boundary element vibro-acoustic model. The radiated sound power and sound pressure for the different operating conditions are presented as the main outcomes of the acoustic model. The noise prediction was validated through comparison with the experimentally measured sound power levels.

Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) δ15N as a bioindicator of nitrogen sources: Observations and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fertig, B.; Carruthers, T.J.B.; Dennison, W.C.; Fertig, E.J.; Altabet, M.A.

2010-01-01

Stable nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N) in bioindicators are increasingly employed to identify nitrogen sources in many ecosystems and biological characteristics of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) make it an appropriate species for this purpose. To assess nitrogen isotopic fractionation associated with assimilation and baseline variations in oyster mantle, gill, and muscle tissue δ 15 N, manipulative fieldwork in Chesapeake Bay and corresponding modeling exercises were conducted. This study (1) determined that five individuals represented an optimal sample size; (2) verified that δ 15 N in oysters from two locations converged after shared deployment to a new location reflecting a change in nitrogen sources; (3) identified required exposure time and temporal integration (four months for muscle, two to three months for gill and mantle); and (4) demonstrated seasonal δ 15 N increases in seston (summer) and oysters (winter). As bioindicators, oysters can be deployed for spatial interpolation of nitrogen sources, even in areas lacking extant populations.

Investigation of the Nonlinear Model of the Cellular Population System Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. S. Vinogradova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An isolated population system is considered which consists of two types of human stem cells: normal cells and cells with chromosomal anomalies (abnormal. In the paper the nonlinear dynamic model which describes dynamics of cell populations developing in vitro is elaborated. The model allows to investigate the processes of the formation of the abnormal cells population from the abnormal cells population of normal cells as well as joint development of these populations. The model takes into account the limited resources.An important feature of the developed model is the use of biological characteristics of processes in the cell population system, such as the proportion of cells, divided over a specified time, the proportion of cells whish are not divided, and which are "lost" and which are passed in the population of abnormal cells from the normal population. This approach allows a more detailed analysis of the impact of various "primary" parameters on the evolution of the population system.Under cultivation of cell populations in vitro a struggle for resources primarily affects the processes of the cell reproduction. This is reflected in the existence of the dividing cells frequency dependence of the total population of normal and abnormal cells. For the account of such dependencies different non-linear functions are typically used. However, the use of such non-linear relationships leads to the difficulties in finding confidence intervals for the estimates of the model parameters at subsequent stages of research. At the same time, the problem of the system parameters estimating and finding of the corresponding confidence intervals for estimates can be solved easy in case when the nonlinear system is linear with respect to the unknown parameters. In the paper it is achieved due to the piecewise linear approximation of nonlinear dependencies.An important feature of the model is a different view of the right part of the differential equations system

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Source modelling of train noise - Literature review and some initial measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Xuetao; Jonasson, Hans; Holmberg, Kjell

2000-07-01

A literature review of source modelling of railway noise is reported. Measurements on a special test rig at Surahammar and on the new railway line between Arlanda and Stockholm City are reported and analyzed. In the analysis the train is modelled as a number of point sources with or without directivity and each source is combined with analytical sound propagation theory to predict the sound propagation pattern best fitting the measured data. Wheel/rail rolling noise is considered to be the most important noise source. The rolling noise can be modelled as an array of moving point sources, which have a dipole-like horizontal directivity and some kind of vertical directivity. In general it is necessary to distribute the point sources on several heights. Based on our model analysis the source heights for the rolling noise should be below the wheel axles and the most important height is about a quarter of wheel diameter above the railheads. When train speeds are greater than 250 km/h aerodynamic noise will become important and even dominant. It may be important for low frequency components only if the train speed is less than 220 km/h. Little data are available for these cases. It is believed that aerodynamic noise has dipole-like directivity. Its spectrum depends on many factors: speed, railway system, type of train, bogies, wheels, pantograph, presence of barriers and even weather conditions. Other sources such as fans, engine, transmission and carriage bodies are at most second order noise sources, but for trains with a diesel locomotive engine the engine noise will be dominant if train speeds are less than about 100 km/h. The Nord 2000 comprehensive model for sound propagation outdoors, together with the source model that is based on the understandings above, can suitably handle the problems of railway noise propagation in one-third octave bands although there are still problems left to be solved.

Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

2011-07-01

Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

Multi-population genomic prediction using a multi-task Bayesian learning model.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liuhong; Li, Changxi; Miller, Stephen; Schenkel, Flavio

2014-05-03

Genomic prediction in multiple populations can be viewed as a multi-task learning problem where tasks are to derive prediction equations for each population and multi-task learning property can be improved by sharing information across populations. The goal of this study was to develop a multi-task Bayesian learning model for multi-population genomic prediction with a strategy to effectively share information across populations. Simulation studies and real data from Holstein and Ayrshire dairy breeds with phenotypes on five milk production traits were used to evaluate the proposed multi-task Bayesian learning model and compare with a single-task model and a simple data pooling method. A multi-task Bayesian learning model was proposed for multi-population genomic prediction. Information was shared across populations through a common set of latent indicator variables while SNP effects were allowed to vary in different populations. Both simulation studies and real data analysis showed the effectiveness of the multi-task model in improving genomic prediction accuracy for the smaller Ayshire breed. Simulation studies suggested that the multi-task model was most effective when the number of QTL was small (n = 20), with an increase of accuracy by up to 0.09 when QTL effects were lowly correlated between two populations (ρ = 0.2), and up to 0.16 when QTL effects were highly correlated (ρ = 0.8). When QTL genotypes were included for training and validation, the improvements were 0.16 and 0.22, respectively, for scenarios of the low and high correlation of QTL effects between two populations. When the number of QTL was large (n = 200), improvement was small with a maximum of 0.02 when QTL genotypes were not included for genomic prediction. Reduction in accuracy was observed for the simple pooling method when the number of QTL was small and correlation of QTL effects between the two populations was low. For the real data, the multi-task model achieved an

Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

Science.gov (United States)

ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

2018-01-01

Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

A mathematical model of a crocodilian population using delay-differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallegos, Angela; Plummer, Tenecia; Uminsky, David; Vega, Cinthia; Wickman, Clare; Zawoiski, Michael

2008-11-01

The crocodilia have multiple interesting characteristics that affect their population dynamics. They are among several reptile species which exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in which the temperature of egg incubation determines the sex of the hatchlings. Their life parameters, specifically birth and death rates, exhibit strong age-dependence. We develop delay-differential equation (DDE) models describing the evolution of a crocodilian population. In using the delay formulation, we are able to account for both the TSD and the age-dependence of the life parameters while maintaining some analytical tractability. In our single-delay model we also find an equilibrium point and prove its local asymptotic stability. We numerically solve the different models and investigate the effects of multiple delays on the age structure of the population as well as the sex ratio of the population. For all models we obtain very strong agreement with the age structure of crocodilian population data as reported in Smith and Webb (Aust. Wild. Res. 12, 541-554, 1985). We also obtain reasonable values for the sex ratio of the simulated population.

Investigations of incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models to improve auralizations

Science.gov (United States)

Vigeant, Michelle C.

Room acoustics computer modeling and auralizations are useful tools when designing or modifying acoustically sensitive spaces. In this dissertation, the input parameter of source directivity has been studied in great detail to determine first its effect in room acoustics computer models and secondly how to better incorporate the directional source characteristics into these models to improve auralizations. To increase the accuracy of room acoustics computer models, the source directivity of real sources, such as musical instruments, must be included in the models. The traditional method for incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models involves inputting the measured static directivity data taken every 10° in a sphere-shaped pattern around the source. This data can be entered into the room acoustics software to create a directivity balloon, which is used in the ray tracing algorithm to simulate the room impulse response. The first study in this dissertation shows that using directional sources over an omni-directional source in room acoustics computer models produces significant differences both in terms of calculated room acoustics parameters and auralizations. The room acoustics computer model was also validated in terms of accurately incorporating the input source directivity. A recently proposed technique for creating auralizations using a multi-channel source representation has been investigated with numerous subjective studies, applied to both solo instruments and an orchestra. The method of multi-channel auralizations involves obtaining multi-channel anechoic recordings of short melodies from various instruments and creating individual channel auralizations. These auralizations are then combined to create a total multi-channel auralization. Through many subjective studies, this process was shown to be effective in terms of improving the realism and source width of the auralizations in a number of cases, and also modeling different

REQUIREMENTS TO THE LIMITATION OF POPULATION EXPO-SURE FROM THE NATIRAL IONIZING IRRADIATION SOURCES IN INDUSTRIAL CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. P. Stamat

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents conceptually new requirements to the limitation of population exposure from the natural ionizing irradiation sources in industrial conditions, introduced into Basic Sanitary Rules of Radiation Safety (OSPORB-99/2010. It is shown that, first of all, introduction of these requirements is aimed at the resolution of variety of previously existing serious contradictions in organization of radiation safety control and supervision for the impact of natural ionizing irradiation sources in industry.

Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

Science.gov (United States)

Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

2008-10-01

Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

Some considerations on stochastic neutron populations (u)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souto, Francisco J.; Prinja, Anil K.

2010-01-01

The neutron population in a multiplying body containing a weak random source may depart considerably from its average or expected value. The resulting behavior of the system is then unpredictable and a fully stochastic description of the neutron population becomes necessary. Stochastic considerations are especially important when dealing with pulsed reactors or in the case of criticality excursions in the presence of a weak source. Using the theory of discrete-state continuous-time Markov processes, and subject to some physical approximations, Bell (I) obtained approximate solutions for the neutron number probability distributions (pdf), with and without an intrinsic rapdom neutron source, that were valid at late times and/ large neutron populations. In recent work (4), we obtained exact solutions for Bell's model problem, and in this paper we use these exact probability distributions to: (I) assess the accuracy of Bell's asymptotic solutions and show how the latter follow from the exact solutions, (2) rigorously examine the probability of obtaining a divergent chain reaction, and (3) demonstrate the existence of an abrupt transition from a stochastic to a deterministic phase with increasing source strength.

Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

2012-01-01

American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

MCNP model for the many KE-Basin radiation sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rittmann, P.D.

1997-01-01

This document presents a model for the location and strength of radiation sources in the accessible areas of KE-Basin which agrees well with data taken on a regular grid in September of 1996. This modelling work was requested to support dose rate reduction efforts in KE-Basin. Anticipated fuel removal activities require lower dose rates to minimize annual dose to workers. With this model, the effects of component cleanup or removal can be estimated in advance to evaluate their effectiveness. In addition, the sources contributing most to the radiation fields in a given location can be identified and dealt with

Model of contamination sources of electron for radiotherapy of beams of photons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Infantes, W.; Lallena Rojo, A. M.; Anguiano Millan, M.

2013-01-01

Proposes a model of virtual sources of electrons, that allows to reproduce the sources to the input parameters of the representation of the patient. To compare performance in depth values and calculated profiles from the full simulation of the heads, with the calculated values using sources model, found that the model is capable of playing depth dose distributions and profiles. (Author)

Optimization of Excitation in FDTD Method and Corresponding Source Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Dimitrijevic

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Source and excitation modeling in FDTD formulation has a significant impact on the method performance and the required simulation time. Since the abrupt source introduction yields intensive numerical variations in whole computational domain, a generally accepted solution is to slowly introduce the source, using appropriate shaping functions in time. The main goal of the optimization presented in this paper is to find balance between two opposite demands: minimal required computation time and acceptable degradation of simulation performance. Reducing the time necessary for source activation and deactivation is an important issue, especially in design of microwave structures, when the simulation is intensively repeated in the process of device parameter optimization. Here proposed optimized source models are realized and tested within an own developed FDTD simulation environment.

The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela OPAIT

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

2012-12-01

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

A Systems Thinking Model for Open Source Software Development in Social Media

OpenAIRE

Mustaquim, Moyen

2010-01-01

In this paper a social media model, based on systems thinking methodology is proposed to understand the behavior of the open source software development community working in social media.The proposed model is focused on relational influences of two different systems- social media and the open source community. This model can be useful for taking decisions which are complicated and where solutions are not apparent.Based on the proposed model, an efficient way of working in open source developm...

Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

Science.gov (United States)

Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

2017-08-01

The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

Science.gov (United States)

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

Science.gov (United States)

Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

2011-01-01

An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

Modeling Sources of Teaching Self-Efficacy for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Graduate Teaching Assistants.

Science.gov (United States)

DeChenne, Sue Ellen; Koziol, Natalie; Needham, Mark; Enochs, Larry

2015-01-01

Graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have a large impact on undergraduate instruction but are often poorly prepared to teach. Teaching self-efficacy, an instructor's belief in his or her ability to teach specific student populations a specific subject, is an important predictor of teaching skill and student achievement. A model of sources of teaching self-efficacy is developed from the GTA literature. This model indicates that teaching experience, departmental teaching climate (including peer and supervisor relationships), and GTA professional development (PD) can act as sources of teaching self-efficacy. The model is pilot tested with 128 GTAs from nine different STEM departments at a midsized research university. Structural equation modeling reveals that K-12 teaching experience, hours and perceived quality of GTA PD, and perception of the departmental facilitating environment are significant factors that explain 32% of the variance in the teaching self-efficacy of STEM GTAs. This model highlights the important contributions of the departmental environment and GTA PD in the development of teaching self-efficacy for STEM GTAs. © 2015 S. E. DeChenne et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2015 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iniyan, S.; Suganthi, L.; Samuel, Anand A.

2006-01-01

In this paper, three models have been projected namely Modified Econometric Mathematical (MEM) model, Mathematical Programming Energy-Economy-Environment (MPEEE) model, and Optimal Renewable Energy Mathematical (OREM) model. The actual demand for coal, oil and electricity is predicted using the MEM model based on economic, technological and environmental factors. The results were used in the MPEEE model, which determines the optimum allocation of commercial energy sources based on environmental limitations. The gap between the actual energy demand from the MEM model and optimal energy use from the MPEEE model, has to be met by the renewable energy sources. The study develops an OREM model that would facilitate effective utilization of renewable energy sources in India, based on cost, efficiency, social acceptance, reliability, potential and demand. The economic variations in solar energy systems and inclusion of environmental constraint are also analyzed with OREM model. The OREM model will help policy makers in the formulation and implementation of strategies concerning renewable energy sources in India for the next two decades

The Red MSX Source Survey: The Massive Young Stellar Population of Our Galaxy

Science.gov (United States)

Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Urquhart, J. S.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Davies, B.; Mottram, J. C.; Cooper, H. D. B.; Moore, T. J. T.

2013-09-01

We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores.

THE RED MSX SOURCE SURVEY: THE MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR POPULATION OF OUR GALAXY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Cooper, H. D. B.; Urquhart, J. S.; Davies, B.; Moore, T. J. T.; Mottram, J. C.

2013-01-01

We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores

THE RED MSX SOURCE SURVEY: THE MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR POPULATION OF OUR GALAXY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Cooper, H. D. B. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Urquhart, J. S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, Bonn (Germany); Davies, B.; Moore, T. J. T. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 5RF (United Kingdom); Mottram, J. C. [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9513, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands)

2013-09-01

We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores.

Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

-mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

The Dynamics of Population, Built-up Areas and their Evolving Associations in Gridded Population across Time and Space

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, F. R.; Gaughan, A. E.; Tatem, A. J.; Linard, C.; Sorichetta, A.; Nieves, J. J.; Reed, P.

2017-12-01

Gridded population data is commonly used to understand the `now' of hazard risk and mitigation management, health and disease modelling, and global change-, economic-, environmental-, and sustainability-related research. But to understand how human population change at local to global scales influences and is influenced by environmental changes requires novel ways of treating data and statistically describing associations of measured population counts with associated covariates. One of the most critical components in such gridded estimates is the relationship between built-up areas and population located in these areas. This relationship is rarely static and accurately estimating changes in built-areas through time and the changing human population around them is critical when applying gridded population datasets in studies of other environmental change. The research presented here discusses these issues in the context of multitemporal, gridded population data, using new technologies and sources of remotely-sensed and modeled built-up areas. We discuss applications of these data in environmental analyses and intercomparisons with other such data across scales.

Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-07-01

Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

Phase transitions in a lattice population model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

2007-01-01

We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2015-01-01

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

Extended nonnegative tensor factorisation models for musical sound source separation.

Science.gov (United States)

FitzGerald, Derry; Cranitch, Matt; Coyle, Eugene

2008-01-01

Recently, shift-invariant tensor factorisation algorithms have been proposed for the purposes of sound source separation of pitched musical instruments. However, in practice, existing algorithms require the use of log-frequency spectrograms to allow shift invariance in frequency which causes problems when attempting to resynthesise the separated sources. Further, it is difficult to impose harmonicity constraints on the recovered basis functions. This paper proposes a new additive synthesis-based approach which allows the use of linear-frequency spectrograms as well as imposing strict harmonic constraints, resulting in an improved model. Further, these additional constraints allow the addition of a source filter model to the factorisation framework, and an extended model which is capable of separating mixtures of pitched and percussive instruments simultaneously.

Extended Nonnegative Tensor Factorisation Models for Musical Sound Source Separation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derry FitzGerald

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, shift-invariant tensor factorisation algorithms have been proposed for the purposes of sound source separation of pitched musical instruments. However, in practice, existing algorithms require the use of log-frequency spectrograms to allow shift invariance in frequency which causes problems when attempting to resynthesise the separated sources. Further, it is difficult to impose harmonicity constraints on the recovered basis functions. This paper proposes a new additive synthesis-based approach which allows the use of linear-frequency spectrograms as well as imposing strict harmonic constraints, resulting in an improved model. Further, these additional constraints allow the addition of a source filter model to the factorisation framework, and an extended model which is capable of separating mixtures of pitched and percussive instruments simultaneously.

Parallel Beam Dynamics Simulation Tools for Future Light Source Linac Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiang, Ji; Pogorelov, Ilya v.; Ryne, Robert D.

2007-01-01

Large-scale modeling on parallel computers is playing an increasingly important role in the design of future light sources. Such modeling provides a means to accurately and efficiently explore issues such as limits to beam brightness, emittance preservation, the growth of instabilities, etc. Recently the IMPACT codes suite was enhanced to be applicable to future light source design. Simulations with IMPACT-Z were performed using up to one billion simulation particles for the main linac of a future light source to study the microbunching instability. Combined with the time domain code IMPACT-T, it is now possible to perform large-scale start-to-end linac simulations for future light sources, including the injector, main linac, chicanes, and transfer lines. In this paper we provide an overview of the IMPACT code suite, its key capabilities, and recent enhancements pertinent to accelerator modeling for future linac-based light sources

Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zheng, Chaozhi

2015-01-01

The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

Population density models of integrate-and-fire neurons with jumps: well-posedness.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumont, Grégory; Henry, Jacques

2013-09-01

In this paper we study the well-posedness of different models of population of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with a population density approach. The synaptic interaction between neurons is modeled by a potential jump at the reception of a spike. We study populations that are self excitatory or self inhibitory. We distinguish the cases where this interaction is instantaneous from the one where there is a repartition of conduction delays. In the case of a bounded density of delays both excitatory and inhibitory population models are shown to be well-posed. But without conduction delay the solution of the model of self excitatory neurons may blow up. We analyze the different behaviours of the model with jumps compared to its diffusion approximation.

Dynamical analysis of a model of social behavior: Criminal vs non-criminal population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbas, Syed; Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Neha, A.A.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A new social model of interaction between criminal and non-criminal population is proposed • The effect of law enforcement is studied • Many real life situations are analyzed • List of open problems is given for future work. - Abstract: In this paper, we construct a model motivated by the well known predator-prey model to study the interaction between criminal population and non-criminal population. Our aim is to study various possibilities of interactions between them. First we model it using simple predator-prey model, then we modify it by considering the logistic growth of non-criminal population. We clearly deduce that the model with logistic growth is better than classical one. More precisely, the role of carrying capacity on the dynamics of criminal minded population is discussed. Further, we incorporate law enforcement term in the model and study its effect. The result obtained suggest that by incorporating enforcement law, the criminal population reduces from the very beginning, which resembles with real life situation. Our result indicates that the criminal minded population exist as long as coefficient of enforcement l_c does not cross a threshold value and after this value the criminal minded population extinct. In addition, we also discuss the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcation in case of model system with law enforcement. Numerical examples and simulations are presented to illustrate the obtained results.

AutoLens: Automated Modeling of a Strong Lens's Light, Mass and Source

Science.gov (United States)

Nightingale, J. W.; Dye, S.; Massey, Richard J.

2018-05-01

This work presents AutoLens, the first entirely automated modeling suite for the analysis of galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. AutoLens simultaneously models the lens galaxy's light and mass whilst reconstructing the extended source galaxy on an adaptive pixel-grid. The method's approach to source-plane discretization is amorphous, adapting its clustering and regularization to the intrinsic properties of the lensed source. The lens's light is fitted using a superposition of Sersic functions, allowing AutoLens to cleanly deblend its light from the source. Single component mass models representing the lens's total mass density profile are demonstrated, which in conjunction with light modeling can detect central images using a centrally cored profile. Decomposed mass modeling is also shown, which can fully decouple a lens's light and dark matter and determine whether the two component are geometrically aligned. The complexity of the light and mass models are automatically chosen via Bayesian model comparison. These steps form AutoLens's automated analysis pipeline, such that all results in this work are generated without any user-intervention. This is rigorously tested on a large suite of simulated images, assessing its performance on a broad range of lens profiles, source morphologies and lensing geometries. The method's performance is excellent, with accurate light, mass and source profiles inferred for data sets representative of both existing Hubble imaging and future Euclid wide-field observations.

A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

Cross-correlating Cosmic IR and X-ray Background Fluctuations: Evidence of Significant Black Hole Populations Among the CIB Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Cappelluti, N.; Kashlinsky, A.; Arendt, R. G.; Comastri, A.; Fazio, G. G.; Finoguenov, A.; Hasinger, G.; Mather, J. C.; Miyaji, T; Moseley, S. H.

2013-01-01

In order to understand the nature of the sources producing the recently uncovered cosmic infrared background (CIB) fluctuations, we study cross-correlations between the fluctuations in the source-subtracted CIB from Spitzer/IRAC data and the unresolved cosmic X-ray background from deep Chandra observations. Our study uses data from the EGS/AEGIS field, where both data sets cover an approx = 8' x 45' region of the sky. Our measurement is the cross-power spectrum between the IR and X-ray data. The cross-power signal between the IRAC maps at 3.6 micron and 4.5 micron and the Chandra [0.5-2] keV data has been detected, at angular scales approx >20'', with an overall significance of approx = 3.8 sigma and approx. = 5.6 sigma, respectively. At the same time we find no evidence of significant cross-correlations at the harder Chandra bands. The cross-correlation signal is produced by individual IR sources with 3.6 micron and 4.5 micron magnitudes m(sub AB) approx. > 25-26 and [0.5-2] keV X-ray fluxes black holes than among the known populations. We discuss the various possible origins for the cross-power signal and show that neither local foregrounds nor the known remaining normal galaxies and active galactic nuclei can reproduce the measurements. These observational results are an important new constraint on theoretical modeling of the near-IR CIB fluctuations. local foregrounds, nor the known remaining normal galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) can reproduce the measurements. These observational results are an important new constraint on theoretical modeling of the near-IR CIB fluctuations

The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ying Zhou; Levy, J.I.; Evans, J.S.; Hammitt, J.K.

2006-01-01

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 x 10 -5 ), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 x 10 -6 ), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 x 10 -6 ), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 x 10 -6 ). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R 2 between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be estimated with

The influence of geographic location on population exposure to emissions from power plants throughout China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ying Zhou; Levy, J.I. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Evans, J.S.; Hammitt, J.K. [Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Boston, MA (United States)

2006-04-15

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 x 10{sup -5}), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 x 10{sup -6}), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 x 10{sup -6}), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 x 10{sup -6}). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R{sup 2} between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be

Who Uses the Internet as a Source of Nutrition and Dietary Information? An Australian Population Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Background The Internet contains a plethora of nutrition information. Health organizations are increasingly using the Internet to deliver population-wide health information and interventions. Effective interventions identify their target population and their needs; however, little is known about use of the Internet as a source of nutrition information. Objective The aim was to assess the change in prevalence and demographic characteristics of Western Australian adults accessing the Internet as a source of nutrition information and identify specific information needs. Methods Data were pooled from the Western Australian Department of Health’s 3-yearly Nutrition Monitoring Survey Series telephone survey between 1995 and 2012 of 7044 participants aged 18 to 64 years. Outcome variables were the main sources of nutrition information used in the last year and yes/no responses to 4 suggestions to what would make it easier to eat a healthy diet. Sociodemographic variables were collected. Results The proportion of respondents using the Internet for nutrition information increased from Internet for this information increased significantly in 2009 (OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.07-3.88) and 2012 (OR 5.20, 95% CI 3.86-7.02, PInternet as a source were more likely to be female (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.60, P=.02), live in a metropolitan area (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, P=.03), born in countries other than Australia/UK/Ireland (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.85, P=.02), more educated (university: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.77-3.42, PInternet for nutrition information were more likely than nonusers to want to know quicker ways to prepare healthy foods (83.0% vs 78.1%, P=.005) and information on choosing healthy foods (76.3% vs 67.3%, PInternet as a main source of nutrition information has grown rapidly since 2004; one-third of Western Australian adults reported using the Internet for this purpose in 2012. Information on preparing healthy foods (ideas, quicker ways), choosing ingredients, and knowing more

Who Uses the Internet as a Source of Nutrition and Dietary Information? An Australian Population Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, Christina Mary; Pulker, Claire Elizabeth; Meng, Xingqiong; Kerr, Deborah Anne; Scott, Jane Anne

2015-08-26

The Internet contains a plethora of nutrition information. Health organizations are increasingly using the Internet to deliver population-wide health information and interventions. Effective interventions identify their target population and their needs; however, little is known about use of the Internet as a source of nutrition information. The aim was to assess the change in prevalence and demographic characteristics of Western Australian adults accessing the Internet as a source of nutrition information and identify specific information needs. Data were pooled from the Western Australian Department of Health's 3-yearly Nutrition Monitoring Survey Series telephone survey between 1995 and 2012 of 7044 participants aged 18 to 64 years. Outcome variables were the main sources of nutrition information used in the last year and yes/no responses to 4 suggestions to what would make it easier to eat a healthy diet. Sociodemographic variables were collected. The proportion of respondents using the Internet for nutrition information increased from Internet for this information increased significantly in 2009 (OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.07-3.88) and 2012 (OR 5.20, 95% CI 3.86-7.02, PInternet as a source were more likely to be female (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.60, P=.02), live in a metropolitan area (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, P=.03), born in countries other than Australia/UK/Ireland (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.85, P=.02), more educated (university: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.77-3.42, PInternet for nutrition information were more likely than nonusers to want to know quicker ways to prepare healthy foods (83.0% vs 78.1%, P=.005) and information on choosing healthy foods (76.3% vs 67.3%, PUse of the Internet as a main source of nutrition information has grown rapidly since 2004; one-third of Western Australian adults reported using the Internet for this purpose in 2012. Information on preparing healthy foods (ideas, quicker ways), choosing ingredients, and knowing more about cooking would make it

OPEN-SOURCE DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (DEMs EVALUATION WITH GPS AND LiDAR DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. F. Khalid

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer-Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, and Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010 are freely available Digital Elevation Model (DEM datasets for environmental modeling and studies. The quality of spatial resolution and vertical accuracy of the DEM data source has a great influence particularly on the accuracy specifically for inundation mapping. Most of the coastal inundation risk studies used the publicly available DEM to estimated the coastal inundation and associated damaged especially to human population based on the increment of sea level. In this study, the comparison between ground truth data from Global Positioning System (GPS observation and DEM is done to evaluate the accuracy of each DEM. The vertical accuracy of SRTM shows better result against ASTER and GMTED10 with an RMSE of 6.054 m. On top of the accuracy, the correlation of DEM is identified with the high determination of coefficient of 0.912 for SRTM. For coastal zone area, DEMs based on airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR dataset was used as ground truth data relating to terrain height. In this case, the LiDAR DEM is compared against the new SRTM DEM after applying the scale factor. From the findings, the accuracy of the new DEM model from SRTM can be improved by applying scale factor. The result clearly shows that the value of RMSE exhibit slightly different when it reached 0.503 m. Hence, this new model is the most suitable and meets the accuracy requirement for coastal inundation risk assessment using open source data. The suitability of these datasets for further analysis on coastal management studies is vital to assess the potentially vulnerable areas caused by coastal inundation.

A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

Science.gov (United States)

Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

2000-08-01

Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

Monitoring alert and drowsy states by modeling EEG source nonstationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Sheng-Hsiou; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-10-01

Objective. As a human brain performs various cognitive functions within ever-changing environments, states of the brain characterized by recorded brain activities such as electroencephalogram (EEG) are inevitably nonstationary. The challenges of analyzing the nonstationary EEG signals include finding neurocognitive sources that underlie different brain states and using EEG data to quantitatively assess the state changes. Approach. This study hypothesizes that brain activities under different states, e.g. levels of alertness, can be modeled as distinct compositions of statistically independent sources using independent component analysis (ICA). This study presents a framework to quantitatively assess the EEG source nonstationarity and estimate levels of alertness. The framework was tested against EEG data collected from 10 subjects performing a sustained-attention task in a driving simulator. Main results. Empirical results illustrate that EEG signals under alert versus drowsy states, indexed by reaction speeds to driving challenges, can be characterized by distinct ICA models. By quantifying the goodness-of-fit of each ICA model to the EEG data using the model deviation index (MDI), we found that MDIs were significantly correlated with the reaction speeds (r  =  -0.390 with alertness models and r  =  0.449 with drowsiness models) and the opposite correlations indicated that the two models accounted for sources in the alert and drowsy states, respectively. Based on the observed source nonstationarity, this study also proposes an online framework using a subject-specific ICA model trained with an initial (alert) state to track the level of alertness. For classification of alert against drowsy states, the proposed online framework achieved an averaged area-under-curve of 0.745 and compared favorably with a classic power-based approach. Significance. This ICA-based framework provides a new way to study changes of brain states and can be applied to

Air quality dispersion models from energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazarevska, Ana

1996-01-01

Along with the continuing development of new air quality models that cover more complex problems, in the Clean Air Act, legislated by the US Congress, a consistency and standardization of air quality model applications were encouraged. As a result, the Guidelines on Air Quality Models were published, which are regularly reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA. These guidelines provide a basis for estimating the air quality concentrations used in accessing control strategies as well as defining emission limits. This paper presents a review and analysis of the recent versions of the models: Simple Terrain Stationary Source Model; Complex Terrain Dispersion Model; Ozone,Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Dioxide Models; Long Range Transport Model; Other phenomenon Models:Fugitive Dust/Fugitive Emissions, Particulate Matter, Lead, Air Pathway Analyses - Air Toxic as well as Hazardous Waste. 8 refs., 4 tabs., 2 ills

A probabilistic model for cell population phenotyping using HCS data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edouard Pauwels

Full Text Available High Content Screening (HCS platforms allow screening living cells under a wide range of experimental conditions and give access to a whole panel of cellular responses to a specific treatment. The outcome is a series of cell population images. Within these images, the heterogeneity of cellular response to the same treatment leads to a whole range of observed values for the recorded cellular features. Consequently, it is difficult to compare and interpret experiments. Moreover, the definition of phenotypic classes at a cell population level remains an open question, although this would ease experiments analyses. In the present work, we tackle these two questions. The input of the method is a series of cell population images for which segmentation and cellular phenotype classification has already been performed. We propose a probabilistic model to represent and later compare cell populations. The model is able to fully exploit the HCS-specific information: "dependence structure of population descriptors" and "within-population variability". The experiments we carried out illustrate how our model accounts for this specific information, as well as the fact that the model benefits from considering them. We underline that these features allow richer HCS data analysis than simpler methods based on single cellular feature values averaged over each well. We validate an HCS data analysis method based on control experiments. It accounts for HCS specificities that were not taken into account by previous methods but have a sound biological meaning. Biological validation of previously unknown outputs of the method constitutes a future line of work.

Invasive cyprinid fish in Europe originate from the single introduction of an admixed source population followed by a complex pattern of spread.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Simon

Full Text Available The Asian cyprinid fish, the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva, was introduced into Europe in the 1960s. A highly invasive freshwater fish, it is currently found in at least 32 countries outside its native range. Here we analyse a 700 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to examine different models of colonisation and spread within the invasive range, and to investigate the factors that may have contributed to their invasion success. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of the introduced populations from continental Europe was higher than that of the native populations, although two recently introduced populations from the British Isles showed low levels of variability. Based on coalescent theory, all introduced and some native populations showed a relative excess of nucleotide diversity compared to haplotype diversity. This suggests that these populations are not in mutation-drift equilibrium, but rather that the relative inflated level of nucleotide diversity is consistent with recent admixture. This study elucidates the colonisation patterns of P. parva in Europe and provides an evolutionary framework of their invasion. It supports the hypothesis that their European colonisation was initiated by their introduction to a single location or small geographic area with subsequent complex pattern of spread including both long distance and stepping-stone dispersal. Furthermore, it was preceded by, or associated with, the admixture of genetically diverse source populations that may have augmented its invasive-potential.

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, Dummy; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of cryptosporidium to surface waters : A case study for Bangladesh and India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, L.C.; Kraker, J.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a

Considering a point-source in a regional air pollution model; Prise en compte d`une source ponctuelle dans un modele regional de pollution atmospherique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipphardt, M.

1997-06-19

This thesis deals with the development and validation of a point-source plume model, with the aim to refine the representation of intensive point-source emissions in regional-scale air quality models. The plume is modelled at four levels of increasing complexity, from a modified Gaussian plume model to the Freiberg and Lusis ring model. Plume elevation is determined by Netterville`s plume rise model, using turbulence and atmospheric stability parameters. A model for the effect of a fine-scale turbulence on the mean concentrations in the plume is developed and integrated in the ring model. A comparison between results with and without considering micro-mixing shows the importance of this effect in a chemically reactive plume. The plume model is integrated into the Eulerian transport/chemistry model AIRQUAL, using an interface between Airqual and the sub-model, and interactions between the two scales are described. A simulation of an air pollution episode over Paris is carried out, showing that the utilization of such a sub-scale model improves the accuracy of the air quality model

Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

OpenAIRE

Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

2017-01-01

This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

Comparison of receptor models for source apportionment of volatile organic compounds in Beijing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yu; Dai Wei; Shao Min; Liu Ying; Lu Sihua; Kuster, William; Goldan, Paul

2008-01-01

Identifying the sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is key to reducing ground-level ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Several receptor models have been developed to apportion sources, but an intercomparison of these models had not been performed for VOCs in China. In the present study, we compared VOC sources based on chemical mass balance (CMB), UNMIX, and positive matrix factorization (PMF) models. Gasoline-related sources, petrochemical production, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were identified by all three models as the major contributors, with UNMIX and PMF producing quite similar results. The contributions of gasoline-related sources and LPG estimated by the CMB model were higher, and petrochemical emissions were lower than in the UNMIX and PMF results, possibly because the VOC profiles used in the CMB model were for fresh emissions and the profiles extracted from ambient measurements by the two-factor analysis models were 'aged'. - VOCs sources were similar for three models with CMB showing a higher estimate for vehicles

Comparison of receptor models for source apportionment of volatile organic compounds in Beijing, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song Yu; Dai Wei [Department of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Shao Min [State Joint Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)], E-mail: mshao@pku.edu.cn; Liu Ying; Lu Sihua [State Joint Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Kuster, William; Goldan, Paul [Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305 (United States)

2008-11-15

Identifying the sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is key to reducing ground-level ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Several receptor models have been developed to apportion sources, but an intercomparison of these models had not been performed for VOCs in China. In the present study, we compared VOC sources based on chemical mass balance (CMB), UNMIX, and positive matrix factorization (PMF) models. Gasoline-related sources, petrochemical production, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were identified by all three models as the major contributors, with UNMIX and PMF producing quite similar results. The contributions of gasoline-related sources and LPG estimated by the CMB model were higher, and petrochemical emissions were lower than in the UNMIX and PMF results, possibly because the VOC profiles used in the CMB model were for fresh emissions and the profiles extracted from ambient measurements by the two-factor analysis models were 'aged'. - VOCs sources were similar for three models with CMB showing a higher estimate for vehicles.

Modeling population dynamics of solitary bees in relation to habitat quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Ulbrich

2001-09-01

Full Text Available To understand associations between habitat, individual behaviour, and population development of solitary bees we developed an individual-based model. This model is based on field observations of Osmia rufa (L (Apoideae: Megachilidae and describes population dynamics of solitary bees. Model rules are focused on maternal investment, in particular on the female’s individual decisions about sex and size of progeny. In the present paper, we address the effect of habitat quality on population size and sex ratio. We examine how food availability and the risk of parasitism influence long-term population development. It can be shown how population properties result from individual maternal investment which is described as a functional response to fluctuations of environmental conditions. We found that habitat quality can be expressed in terms of cell construction time. This interface factor influences the rate of open cell parasitism as the risk for a brood cell to be parasitized is positively correlated with the time of its construction. Under conditions of scarce food and under resulting long provision times even low parasitism rates lead to a high extinction risk of the population, whereas in rich habitats probabilities of extinction are low even for high rates of parasitism. For a given level of food and parasitism there is an optimum time for cell construction which minimizes the extinction risk of the population. Model results demonstrate that under fluctuating environmental conditions, decreasing habitat quality leads to a decrease in population size but also to rapid shifts in sex ratio.

Receptor modeling for source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban atmosphere.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Kunwar P; Malik, Amrita; Kumar, Ranjan; Saxena, Puneet; Sinha, Sarita

2008-01-01

This study reports source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in particulate depositions on vegetation foliages near highway in the urban environment of Lucknow city (India) using the principal components analysis/absolute principal components scores (PCA/APCS) receptor modeling approach. The multivariate method enables identification of major PAHs sources along with their quantitative contributions with respect to individual PAH. The PCA identified three major sources of PAHs viz. combustion, vehicular emissions, and diesel based activities. The PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach revealed that the combustion sources (natural gas, wood, coal/coke, biomass) contributed 19-97% of various PAHs, vehicular emissions 0-70%, diesel based sources 0-81% and other miscellaneous sources 0-20% of different PAHs. The contributions of major pyrolytic and petrogenic sources to the total PAHs were 56 and 42%, respectively. Further, the combustion related sources contribute major fraction of the carcinogenic PAHs in the study area. High correlation coefficient (R2 > 0.75 for most PAHs) between the measured and predicted concentrations of PAHs suggests for the applicability of the PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach for estimation of source contribution to the PAHs in particulates.

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Lubow, Bruce C.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model MH), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final

Source Term Model for Fine Particle Resuspension from Indoor Surfaces

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kim, Yoojeong; Gidwani, Ashok; Sippola, Mark; Sohn, Chang W

2008-01-01

This Phase I effort developed a source term model for particle resuspension from indoor surfaces to be used as a source term boundary condition for CFD simulation of particle transport and dispersion in a building...

Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bakanev Sergey ...

2012-10-01

Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

Comparison of the iPCoD and DEPONS models for modelling population consequences of noise on harbour porpoises

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Harwood, John

Two different frameworks have been developed to assess the potential effects of noise associated with offshore renewable energy developments on harbour porpoise populations: The Interim Population Consequences of Disturbance (iPCoD) and Disturbance Effects of Noise on the Harbour Porpoise...... Population in the North Sea (DEPONS). Although both models simulate population dynamics based on the birth and survival rates of individual animals, they model survival in a different way. iPCoD uses average survival rates derived from data from North Sea animals. In the DEPONS model, survival emerges from...

Open source Modeling and optimization tools for Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peles, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-02-10

Open source modeling and optimization tools for planning The existing tools and software used for planning and analysis in California are either expensive, difficult to use, or not generally accessible to a large number of participants. These limitations restrict the availability of participants for larger scale energy and grid studies in the state. The proposed initiative would build upon federal and state investments in open source software, and create and improve open source tools for use in the state planning and analysis activities. Computational analysis and simulation frameworks in development at national labs and universities can be brought forward to complement existing tools. An open source platform would provide a path for novel techniques and strategies to be brought into the larger community and reviewed by a broad set of stakeholders.

Exposure of the Spanish population to radiation from natural sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Talavera, M.; Suarez, E.; Matarranz, J.L.; Salas, R.; Ramos, L.

2006-01-01

We have assessed the exposure of the Spanish population to natural radiation sources. The annual average effective dose is estimated to be 2.38 mSv, taking into account contributions from cosmic radiation (13.8%), terrestrial gamma radiation (39%), radon and thoron inhalation (34%) and ingestion (13.2%). Cosmic radiation doses were calculated from town altitude data. Terrestrial gamma ray exposure outdoors was derived from the M.A.R.N.A. (natural gamma radiation map of Spain). Indoor gamma ray exposure was calculated by multiplying the corresponding outdoor value by a conversion factor, which was obtained by a linear least-squares fit of experimental measurements. Radon doses were estimated from national surveys carried out throughout the country. To assess doses by ingestion of water and foodstuffs we considered the results from a detailed study on consumption habits by age and geographical area in Spain, promoted by C.S.N., and average radioactivity values from UNSCEAR. (authors)

Exposure of the Spanish population to radiation from natural sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia-Talavera, M.; Suarez, E.; Matarranz, J.L.; Salas, R.; Ramos, L. [Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear. Justo Dorado, Madrid (Spain)

2006-07-01

We have assessed the exposure of the Spanish population to natural radiation sources. The annual average effective dose is estimated to be 2.38 mSv, taking into account contributions from cosmic radiation (13.8%), terrestrial gamma radiation (39%), radon and thoron inhalation (34%) and ingestion (13.2%). Cosmic radiation doses were calculated from town altitude data. Terrestrial gamma ray exposure outdoors was derived from the M.A.R.N.A. (natural gamma radiation map of Spain). Indoor gamma ray exposure was calculated by multiplying the corresponding outdoor value conversion factor, which was obtained by a linear least-squares fit of experimental measurements. Radon doses were estimated from national surveys carried out throughout the country. To assess doses by ingestion of water and foodstuffs we considered the results from a detailed study on consumption habits by age and geographical area in Spain, promoted by C.S.N., and average radioactivity values from UNSCEAR. (authors)

Nitrate source apportionment using a combined dual isotope, chemical and bacterial property, and Bayesian model approach in river systems

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Yongqiu; Li, Yuefei; Zhang, Xinyu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

2017-01-01

Nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a serious problem worldwide, particularly in countries with intensive agricultural and population activities. Previous studies have used δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- to determine the NO3- sources in rivers. However, this approach is subject to substantial uncertainties and limitations because of the numerous NO3- sources, the wide isotopic ranges, and the existing isotopic fractionations. In this study, we outline a combined procedure for improving the determination of NO3- sources in a paddy agriculture-urban gradient watershed in eastern China. First, the main sources of NO3- in the Qinhuai River were examined by the dual-isotope biplot approach, in which we narrowed the isotope ranges using site-specific isotopic results. Next, the bacterial groups and chemical properties of the river water were analyzed to verify these sources. Finally, we introduced a Bayesian model to apportion the spatiotemporal variations of the NO3- sources. Denitrification was first incorporated into the Bayesian model because denitrification plays an important role in the nitrogen pathway. The results showed that fertilizer contributed large amounts of NO3- to the surface water in traditional agricultural regions, whereas manure effluents were the dominant NO3- source in intensified agricultural regions, especially during the wet seasons. Sewage effluents were important in all three land uses and exhibited great differences between the dry season and the wet season. This combined analysis quantitatively delineates the proportion of NO3- sources from paddy agriculture to urban river water for both dry and wet seasons and incorporates isotopic fractionation and uncertainties in the source compositions.

Urban domestic dog populations as a source of canine distemper virus for wild carnivores in the Coquimbo region of Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta-Jamett, G; Chalmers, W S K; Cunningham, A A; Cleaveland, S; Handel, I G; Bronsvoort, B M deC

2011-09-28

Urban areas can support dog populations dense enough to maintain canine distemper virus (CDV) and can be a source of infection for rural dogs and free-ranging carnivores. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between urban and rural domestic dog and wild carnivore populations and their effects on the epidemiology of CDV to explain retrospectively a CD outbreak in wild foxes in 2003. From 2005 to 2007 a cross-sectional household questionnaire survey was conducted in Coquimbo and Ovalle cities, in three towns and in rural sites along two transects from these cities to the Fray Jorge National Park (FJNP) in the Coquimbo region, Chile. Blood samples were collected from unvaccinated dogs at surveyed households and from free-ranging foxes in rural areas along the transects. The seroprevalence of CDV in domestic dogs was higher in urban than in rural areas and in the later was highest in dogs born before 2001-2002. The seroprevalence of CDV in foxes was higher in areas closer to human settlements. A high seroprevalence in dogs born before 2001-2002 further supports a link between CDV patterns in rural dog and fox populations. In our study area, urban dogs are proposed to be the source of CDV infection to wild carnivores. The large dog population size and density detected in Coquimbo and Ovalle provides optimal conditions for maintaining a large and dense susceptible population of dogs, which can act as a reservoir for highly infectious diseases and could have been the source of infection in the CD outbreak in wild foxes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Equivalent Source Method for Modelling the Global Lithospheric Magnetic Field

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kother, Livia Kathleen; Hammer, Magnus Danel; Finlay, Chris

2014-01-01

We present a new technique for modelling the global lithospheric magnetic field at Earth's surface based on the estimation of equivalent potential field sources. As a demonstration we show an application to magnetic field measurements made by the CHAMP satellite during the period 2009-2010 when...... are also employed to minimize the influence of the ionospheric field. The model for the remaining lithospheric magnetic field consists of magnetic point sources (monopoles) arranged in an icosahedron grid. The corresponding source values are estimated using an iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm...... in the CHAOS-4 and MF7 models using more conventional spherical harmonic based approaches. Advantages of the equivalent source method include its local nature, allowing e.g. for regional grid refinement, and the ease of transforming to spherical harmonics when needed. Future applications will make use of Swarm...

On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

2010-01-01

from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

Developing a Successful Open Source Training Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Lopez

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Training programs for open source software provide a tangible, and sellable, product. A successful training program not only builds revenue, it also adds to the overall body of knowledge available for the open source project. By gathering best practices and taking advantage of the collective expertise within a community, it may be possible for a business to partner with an open source project to build a curriculum that promotes the project and supports the needs of the company's training customers. This article describes the initial approach used by Canonical, the commercial sponsor of the Ubuntu Linux operating system, to engage the community in the creation of its training offerings. We then discuss alternate curriculum creation models and some of the conditions that are necessary for successful collaboration between creators of existing documentation and commercial training providers.

Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

Science.gov (United States)

Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

Model of the Sgr B2 radio source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gosachinskij, I.V.; Khersonskij, V.K.

1981-01-01

The dynamical model of the gas cloud around the radio source Sagittarius B2 is suggested. This model describes the kinematic features of the gas in this source: contraction of the core and rotation of the envelope. The stability of the cloud at the initial stage is supported by the turbulent motion of the gas, turbulence energy dissipates due to magnetic viscosity. This process is occurring more rapidly in the dense core and the core begins to collapse but the envelope remains stable. The parameters of the primary cloud and some parameters (mass, density and size) of the collapse are calculated. The conditions in the core at the moment of its fragmentation into masses of stellar order are established [ru

GalMod: the last frontier of Galaxy population synthesis models

Science.gov (United States)

Pasetto, Stefano; Kollmeier, Juna; Grebel, Eva K.; chiosi, cesare

2018-01-01

We present a novel Galaxy population synthesis model: GalMod (Pasetto et al. 2016, 2017a,b) is the only star-count model featuring an asymmetric bar/bulge as well as spiral arms as directly obtained by applying linear perturbative theory to self-consistent distribution function of the Galaxy stellar populations. Compared to previous literature models (e.g., Besancon, Trilegal), GalMod allows to generate full-sky mock catalogue, M31 surveys and provides a better match to observed Milky Way (MW) stellar fields.The model can generate synthetic mock catalogs of visible portions of the MW, external galaxies like M31, or N-body simulation initial conditions. At any given time, e.g., a chosen age of the Galaxy, the model contains a sum of discrete stellar populations, namely bulge/bar, disk, halo. The disk population is itself the sum of subpopulations: spiral arms, thin disk, thick disk, and gas component, while the halo is modeled as the sum of a stellar component, a hot coronal gas, and a dark matter component. The Galactic potential is computed from these subpopulations' density profiles and used to generate detailed kinematics by considering the first few moments of the Boltzmann collisionless equation for all the stellar subpopulations. The same density profiles are then used to define the observed color-magnitude diagrams within an input field of view from an arbitrary solar location. Several photometric systems have been included and made available on-line, e.g., SDSS, Gaia, 2MASS, HST WFC3, and others. Finally, we model the extinction with advanced ray tracing solutions.The model's web page (and tutorial) can be accessed at www.GalMod.org.

Historical evolution of sources identification by means of Receptor Modeling in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, R. M.; Andrade, M. D. F.; Marien, Y., Sr.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric aerosols sources have been identified in Sao Paulo since the 80´s with the use of receptor models. The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is a megacity with a population of 21 million, corresponding to more than 11% of the total population of Brazil. The first results for the identification of sources of particles were obtained with the application of Absolute Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis and Chemical Mass Balance. More recently the Positive Matrix Factorization has been used in combination with the other receptor models. With the improvement of the aerosol composition analytical determination (more elements and better resolution) the source identification has became more accurate. But, in spite of that, the main sources are the same for fine particles: vehicular emission, secondary formation and biomass burning. The large amount of biofuels used in the MASP makes this region an important example of the atmospheric chemistry of fossil fuel and biofuel emissions. The 7 million vehicles can run on gasohol, ethanol (95% ethanol + 5% gasoline) and biodiesel (mostly for trucks and buses). We have considered the Black Carbon as the tracer for diesel engines and biomass burning, being this last source associated not only with burning of sugar cane plantation and forest fires, but also with wood and charcoal used in restaurant and domestic cooking and residues burning. The responsibility of the vehicular emission to the fine particles has been maintained in approximately 50% of the mass. The soil resuspension was associated with 8% of the fine particles origin. We are presenting the data obtained from experiments performed from 1983 to 2014, not continuously and mainly performed in the winter time. It is a long period of data that is going to be considered. The previous results obtained with the application of PCA were compared to that obtained with PMF applied to the historical data collected at MASP, showing the evolution of the

Comments to a polar bear population model

OpenAIRE

Øritsland, Nils Are

1985-01-01

Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.

Population growth and economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Narayana, D L

1984-01-01

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

Open Sourcing Social Change: Inside the Constellation Model

OpenAIRE

Tonya Surman; Mark Surman

2008-01-01

The constellation model was developed by and for the Canadian Partnership for Children's Health and the Environment. The model offers an innovative approach to organizing collaborative efforts in the social mission sector and shares various elements of the open source model. It emphasizes self-organizing and concrete action within a network of partner organizations working on a common issue. Constellations are self-organizing action teams that operate within the broader strategic vision of a ...

Effects of Host-rock Fracturing on Elastic-deformation Source Models of Volcano Deflation.

Science.gov (United States)

Holohan, Eoghan P; Sudhaus, Henriette; Walter, Thomas R; Schöpfer, Martin P J; Walsh, John J

2017-09-08

Volcanoes commonly inflate or deflate during episodes of unrest or eruption. Continuum mechanics models that assume linear elastic deformation of the Earth's crust are routinely used to invert the observed ground motions. The source(s) of deformation in such models are generally interpreted in terms of magma bodies or pathways, and thus form a basis for hazard assessment and mitigation. Using discontinuum mechanics models, we show how host-rock fracturing (i.e. non-elastic deformation) during drainage of a magma body can progressively change the shape and depth of an elastic-deformation source. We argue that this effect explains the marked spatio-temporal changes in source model attributes inferred for the March-April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Reunion. We find that pronounced deflation-related host-rock fracturing can: (1) yield inclined source model geometries for a horizontal magma body; (2) cause significant upward migration of an elastic-deformation source, leading to underestimation of the true magma body depth and potentially to a misinterpretation of ascending magma; and (3) at least partly explain underestimation by elastic-deformation sources of changes in sub-surface magma volume.

Source apportionment of PM2.5 in North India using source-oriented air quality models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Hao; Kota, Sri Harsha; Sahu, Shovan Kumar; Hu, Jianlin; Ying, Qi; Gao, Aifang; Zhang, Hongliang

2017-01-01

In recent years, severe pollution events were observed frequently in India especially at its capital, New Delhi. However, limited studies have been conducted to understand the sources to high pollutant concentrations for designing effective control strategies. In this work, source-oriented versions of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) were applied to quantify the contributions of eight source types (energy, industry, residential, on-road, off-road, agriculture, open burning and dust) to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and its components including primary PM (PPM) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) i.e. sulfate, nitrate and ammonium ions, in Delhi and three surrounding cities, Chandigarh, Lucknow and Jaipur in 2015. PPM mass is dominated by industry and residential activities (>60%). Energy (∼39%) and industry (∼45%) sectors contribute significantly to PPM at south of Delhi, which reach a maximum of 200 μg/m 3 during winter. Unlike PPM, SIA concentrations from different sources are more heterogeneous. High SIA concentrations (∼25 μg/m 3 ) at south Delhi and central Uttar Pradesh were mainly attributed to energy, industry and residential sectors. Agriculture is more important for SIA than PPM and contributions of on-road and open burning to SIA are also higher than to PPM. Residential sector contributes highest to total PM 2.5 (∼80 μg/m 3 ), followed by industry (∼70 μg/m 3 ) in North India. Energy and agriculture contribute ∼25 μg/m 3 and ∼16 μg/m 3 to total PM 2.5 , while SOA contributes <5 μg/m 3 . In Delhi, industry and residential activities contribute to 80% of total PM 2.5 . - Highlights: • Sources of PM 2.5 in North India were quantified by source-oriented CMAQ. • Industrial/residential activities are the dominating sources (60–70%) for PPM. • Energy/agriculture are the most important sources (30–40%) for SIA. • Strong seasonal

Improved population balance model for straining-dominant deep bed filtration using network calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yuan, Hao; You, Zhenjiang; Shapiro, Alexander

2013-01-01

Colloidal-suspension flow in porous media is modelled simultaneously by the large scale population balance equations and by the microscale network model. The phenomenological parameter of the correlation length in the population balance model is determined from the network modelling. It is found...... out that the correlation length in the population balance model depends on the particle size. This dependency calculated by two-dimensional network has the same tendency as that obtained from the laboratory tests in engineered porous media....

Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

Science.gov (United States)

Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

2014-11-01

Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

Modeling the contribution of point sources and non-point sources to Thachin River water pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaffner, Monika; Bader, Hans-Peter; Scheidegger, Ruth

2009-08-15

Major rivers in developing and emerging countries suffer increasingly of severe degradation of water quality. The current study uses a mathematical Material Flow Analysis (MMFA) as a complementary approach to address the degradation of river water quality due to nutrient pollution in the Thachin River Basin in Central Thailand. This paper gives an overview of the origins and flow paths of the various point- and non-point pollution sources in the Thachin River Basin (in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus) and quantifies their relative importance within the system. The key parameters influencing the main nutrient flows are determined and possible mitigation measures discussed. The results show that aquaculture (as a point source) and rice farming (as a non-point source) are the key nutrient sources in the Thachin River Basin. Other point sources such as pig farms, households and industries, which were previously cited as the most relevant pollution sources in terms of organic pollution, play less significant roles in comparison. This order of importance shifts when considering the model results for the provincial level. Crosschecks with secondary data and field studies confirm the plausibility of our simulations. Specific nutrient loads for the pollution sources are derived; these can be used for a first broad quantification of nutrient pollution in comparable river basins. Based on an identification of the sensitive model parameters, possible mitigation scenarios are determined and their potential to reduce the nutrient load evaluated. A comparison of simulated nutrient loads with measured nutrient concentrations shows that nutrient retention in the river system may be significant. Sedimentation in the slow flowing surface water network as well as nitrogen emission to the air from the warm oxygen deficient waters are certainly partly responsible, but also wetlands along the river banks could play an important role as nutrient sinks.

Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Fieberg, John R; Shertzer, Kyle W; Conn, Paul B; Noyce, Karen V; Garshelis, David L

2010-08-12

Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and

Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

Science.gov (United States)

Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

2001-01-01

Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2017-05-01

Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

KAUST Repository

Causse, M.

2013-12-24

We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

Consistent modelling of wind turbine noise propagation from source to receiver.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlas, Emre; Zhu, Wei Jun; Shen, Wen Zhong; Dag, Kaya O; Moriarty, Patrick

2017-11-01

The unsteady nature of wind turbine noise is a major reason for annoyance. The variation of far-field sound pressure levels is not only caused by the continuous change in wind turbine noise source levels but also by the unsteady flow field and the ground characteristics between the turbine and receiver. To take these phenomena into account, a consistent numerical technique that models the sound propagation from the source to receiver is developed. Large eddy simulation with an actuator line technique is employed for the flow modelling and the corresponding flow fields are used to simulate sound generation and propagation. The local blade relative velocity, angle of attack, and turbulence characteristics are input to the sound generation model. Time-dependent blade locations and the velocity between the noise source and receiver are considered within a quasi-3D propagation model. Long-range noise propagation of a 5 MW wind turbine is investigated. Sound pressure level time series evaluated at the source time are studied for varying wind speeds, surface roughness, and ground impedances within a 2000 m radius from the turbine.

Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala

2012-01-01

Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all marker...

Efficient Generation and Selection of Virtual Populations in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R J; Rieger, T R; Musante, C J

2016-03-01

Quantitative systems pharmacology models mechanistically describe a biological system and the effect of drug treatment on system behavior. Because these models rarely are identifiable from the available data, the uncertainty in physiological parameters may be sampled to create alternative parameterizations of the model, sometimes termed "virtual patients." In order to reproduce the statistics of a clinical population, virtual patients are often weighted to form a virtual population that reflects the baseline characteristics of the clinical cohort. Here we introduce a novel technique to efficiently generate virtual patients and, from this ensemble, demonstrate how to select a virtual population that matches the observed data without the need for weighting. This approach improves confidence in model predictions by mitigating the risk that spurious virtual patients become overrepresented in virtual populations.

Data Sources for NetZero Ft Carson Model

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Table of values used to parameterize and evaluate the Ft Carson NetZero integrated Model with published reference sources for each value. This dataset is associated...

Modeling of renewable hybrid energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru Cristian Dragos

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Recent developments and trends in the electric power consumption indicate an increasing use of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. By this point of view studies on renewable energies focuses more and more attention. The present paper intends to present different mathematical models related to different types of renewable energy sources such as: solar energy and wind energy. It is also presented the validation and adaptation of such models to hybrid systems working in geographical and meteorological conditions specific to central part of Transylvania region. The conclusions based on validation of such models are also shown.

Comparison of analytic source models for head scatter factor calculation and planar dose calculation for IMRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Guanghua; Liu, Chihray; Lu Bo; Palta, Jatinder R; Li, Jonathan G

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to choose an appropriate head scatter source model for the fast and accurate independent planar dose calculation for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with MLC. The performance of three different head scatter source models regarding their ability to model head scatter and facilitate planar dose calculation was evaluated. A three-source model, a two-source model and a single-source model were compared in this study. In the planar dose calculation algorithm, in-air fluence distribution was derived from each of the head scatter source models while considering the combination of Jaw and MLC opening. Fluence perturbations due to tongue-and-groove effect, rounded leaf end and leaf transmission were taken into account explicitly. The dose distribution was calculated by convolving the in-air fluence distribution with an experimentally determined pencil-beam kernel. The results were compared with measurements using a diode array and passing rates with 2%/2 mm and 3%/3 mm criteria were reported. It was found that the two-source model achieved the best agreement on head scatter factor calculation. The three-source model and single-source model underestimated head scatter factors for certain symmetric rectangular fields and asymmetric fields, but similar good agreement could be achieved when monitor back scatter effect was incorporated explicitly. All the three source models resulted in comparable average passing rates (>97%) when the 3%/3 mm criterion was selected. The calculation with the single-source model and two-source model was slightly faster than the three-source model due to their simplicity

Comparison of analytic source models for head scatter factor calculation and planar dose calculation for IMRT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan Guanghua [Department of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Liu, Chihray; Lu Bo; Palta, Jatinder R; Li, Jonathan G [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610-0385 (United States)

2008-04-21

The purpose of this study was to choose an appropriate head scatter source model for the fast and accurate independent planar dose calculation for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with MLC. The performance of three different head scatter source models regarding their ability to model head scatter and facilitate planar dose calculation was evaluated. A three-source model, a two-source model and a single-source model were compared in this study. In the planar dose calculation algorithm, in-air fluence distribution was derived from each of the head scatter source models while considering the combination of Jaw and MLC opening. Fluence perturbations due to tongue-and-groove effect, rounded leaf end and leaf transmission were taken into account explicitly. The dose distribution was calculated by convolving the in-air fluence distribution with an experimentally determined pencil-beam kernel. The results were compared with measurements using a diode array and passing rates with 2%/2 mm and 3%/3 mm criteria were reported. It was found that the two-source model achieved the best agreement on head scatter factor calculation. The three-source model and single-source model underestimated head scatter factors for certain symmetric rectangular fields and asymmetric fields, but similar good agreement could be achieved when monitor back scatter effect was incorporated explicitly. All the three source models resulted in comparable average passing rates (>97%) when the 3%/3 mm criterion was selected. The calculation with the single-source model and two-source model was slightly faster than the three-source model due to their simplicity.

Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.