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Sample records for source population modeling

  1. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial

  2. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

    Hardstaff Joanne L

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles. The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to

  3. Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

    Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

    2012-06-27

    The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such

  4. Coagulation of aerosols population in external mixture: modeling and experiments/Modelling of a population of aerosol multi-sources and research for contributions of every source in the urban scale with the model of dispersion CHIMERE

    Dergaoui, Hilel

    2012-01-01

    This thesis has been launched at the instigation of INERIS in order to bring some answers to several issues about environmental and health impact of the particle pollution. Indeed, the growing concern of public exposure at urban scale to atmospheric particles and the gradual setting-up of emission reduction policies (particles and their gaseous precursors) make more and more necessary to apportion the various sources contributing to ambient particle concentrations and to quantify these contributions. Due to the highly complex relationships between emissions and measured concentrations, chemical transport models which simulate advection, diffusion and the physico-chemical transformations undergone by pollutants in atmosphere, have to be used. Particles are still a hard modeling task, due to their multiple sizes, chemical compositions and emission sources (including their gaseous precursors). Most chemical transport models uses a simplified mathematical representation for atmospheric aerosols. Their size distribution is either represented by several log-normal distributions, or discretized in several sections, whose mean diameters span from a few nanometers to tens of micrometers. Within each size class, particles are usually assumed to be well mixed, i.e. they all have the same composition, which is named internal mixing. However, in reality and close to emission sources, the particle population may have several distinct chemical compositions for one given size class, due to the fact that sources emit particles with very different chemical compositions (e.g. traffic, heating, industries, vegetation), which refers to external mixing. Thus, the internal mixing assumption comes to neglect the mixing time between particles of different sources, which may entail significant errors in the computation of exposure and of their physico-chemical properties, some of whom, like radiative effect, are precisely above all sensitive to chemical composition. In this framework, the

  5. Source apportionment of population representative samples of PM(2.5) in three European cities using structural equation modelling.

    Ilacqua, Vito; Hänninen, Otto; Saarela, Kristina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Künzli, Nino; Jantunen, Matti

    2007-10-01

    Apportionment of urban particulate matter (PM) to sources is central for air quality management and efficient reduction of the substantial public health risks associated with fine particles (PM(2.5)). Traffic is an important source combustion particles, but also a significant source of resuspended particles that chemically resemble Earth's crust and that are not affected by development of cleaner motor technologies. A substantial fraction of urban ambient PM originates from long-range transport outside the immediate urban environment including secondary particles formed from gaseous emissions of mainly sulphur, nitrogen oxides and ammonia. Most source apportionment studies are based on small number of fixed monitoring sites and capture well population exposures to regional and long-range transported particles. However, concentrations from local sources are very unevenly distributed and the results from such studies are therefore poorly representative of the actual exposures. The current study uses PM(2.5) data observed at population based random sampled residential locations in Athens, Basle and Helsinki with 17 elemental constituents, selected VOCs (xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, nonane and benzene) and light absorbance (black smoke). The major sources identified across the three cities included crustal, salt, long-range transported inorganic and traffic sources. Traffic was associated separately with source categories with crustal (especially Athens and Helsinki) and long-range transported chemical composition (all cities). Remarkably high fractions of the variability of elemental (R(2)>0.6 except for Ca in Basle 0.38) and chemical concentrations (R(2)>0.5 except benzene in Basle 0.22 and nonane in Athens 0.39) are explained by the source factors of an SEM model. The RAINS model that is currently used as the main tool in developing European air quality management policies seems to capture the local urban fraction (the city delta term) quite well, but underestimates

  6. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Philip Gemmell

    Full Text Available Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+, inward rectifying K(+, L-type Ca(2+, and Na(+/K(+ pump currents in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al. at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in

  7. Population of computational rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models for investigating sources of variability in cellular repolarisation.

    Gemmell, Philip; Burrage, Kevin; Rodriguez, Blanca; Quinn, T Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Variability is observed at all levels of cardiac electrophysiology. Yet, the underlying causes and importance of this variability are generally unknown, and difficult to investigate with current experimental techniques. The aim of the present study was to generate populations of computational ventricular action potential models that reproduce experimentally observed intercellular variability of repolarisation (represented by action potential duration) and to identify its potential causes. A systematic exploration of the effects of simultaneously varying the magnitude of six transmembrane current conductances (transient outward, rapid and slow delayed rectifier K(+), inward rectifying K(+), L-type Ca(2+), and Na(+)/K(+) pump currents) in two rabbit-specific ventricular action potential models (Shannon et al. and Mahajan et al.) at multiple cycle lengths (400, 600, 1,000 ms) was performed. This was accomplished with distributed computing software specialised for multi-dimensional parameter sweeps and grid execution. An initial population of 15,625 parameter sets was generated for both models at each cycle length. Action potential durations of these populations were compared to experimentally derived ranges for rabbit ventricular myocytes. 1,352 parameter sets for the Shannon model and 779 parameter sets for the Mahajan model yielded action potential duration within the experimental range, demonstrating that a wide array of ionic conductance values can be used to simulate a physiological rabbit ventricular action potential. Furthermore, by using clutter-based dimension reordering, a technique that allows visualisation of multi-dimensional spaces in two dimensions, the interaction of current conductances and their relative importance to the ventricular action potential at different cycle lengths were revealed. Overall, this work represents an important step towards a better understanding of the role that variability in current conductances may play in experimentally

  8. Long GRBs sources population non-uniformity

    Arkhangelskaja, Irene

    Long GRBs observed in the very wide energy band. It is possible to separate two subsets of GRBs with high energy component (E > 500 MeV) presence. First type events energy spectra in low and high energy intervals are similar (as for GRB 021008) and described by Band, power law or broken power law models look like to usual bursts without emission in tens MeV region. For example, Band spectrum of GRB080916C covering 6 orders of magnitude. Second ones contain new additional high energy spectral component (for example, GRB 050525B and GRB 090902B). Both types of GRBs observed since CGRO mission beginning. The low energy precursors existence are typical for all types bursts. Both types of bursts temporal profiles can be similar in the various energy regions during some events or different in other cases. The absence of hard to soft evolution in low energy band and (or) presence of high energy precursors for some events are the special features of second class of GRBs by the results of preliminary data analysis and this facts gives opportunities to suppose differences between these two GRBs subsets sources. Also the results of long GRB redshifts distribution analysis have shown its shape contradiction to uniform population objects one for our Metagalaxy to both total and various redshifts definition methods GRBs sources samples. These evidences allow making preliminary conclusion about non-uniformity of long GRBs sources population.

  9. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics): an open-source software system for modeling infectious diseases and control strategies using census-based populations.

    Grefenstette, John J; Brown, Shawn T; Rosenfeld, Roni; DePasse, Jay; Stone, Nathan T B; Cooley, Phillip C; Wheaton, William D; Fyshe, Alona; Galloway, David D; Sriram, Anuroop; Guclu, Hasan; Abraham, Thomas; Burke, Donald S

    2013-10-08

    Mathematical and computational models provide valuable tools that help public health planners to evaluate competing health interventions, especially for novel circumstances that cannot be examined through observational or controlled studies, such as pandemic influenza. The spread of diseases like influenza depends on the mixing patterns within the population, and these mixing patterns depend in part on local factors including the spatial distribution and age structure of the population, the distribution of size and composition of households, employment status and commuting patterns of adults, and the size and age structure of schools. Finally, public health planners must take into account the health behavior patterns of the population, patterns that often vary according to socioeconomic factors such as race, household income, and education levels. FRED (a Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system based closely on models used in previously published studies of pandemic influenza. This version of FRED uses open-access census-based synthetic populations that capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population, including realistic household, school, and workplace social networks. FRED epidemic models are currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations. State and county public health planners can use FRED to explore the effects of possible influenza epidemics in specific geographic regions of interest and to help evaluate the effect of interventions such as vaccination programs and school closure policies. FRED is available under a free open source license in order to contribute to the development of better modeling tools and to encourage open discussion of modeling tools being used to evaluate public health policies. We also welcome participation by other researchers in the further development of FRED.

  10. Population studies of the unidentified EGRET sources

    Siegal-Gaskins, J M [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Pavlidou, V [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Olinto, A V [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Brown, C [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Fields, B D [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2007-03-15

    The third EGRET catalog contains a large number of unidentified sources. Current data allows the intriguing possibility that some of these objects may represent a new class of yet undiscovered gamma-ray sources. By assuming that galaxies similar to the Milky Way host comparable populations of objects, we constrain the allowed Galactic abundance and distribution of various classes of gamma-ray sources using the EGRET data set. Furthermore, regardless of the nature of the unidentified sources, faint unresolved objects of the same class contribute to the observed diffuse gamma-ray background. We investigate the potential contribution of these unresolved sources to the extragalactic gamma-ray background.

  11. Population studies of the unidentified EGRET sources

    Siegal-Gaskins, J M; Pavlidou, V; Olinto, A V; Brown, C; Fields, B D

    2007-01-01

    The third EGRET catalog contains a large number of unidentified sources. Current data allows the intriguing possibility that some of these objects may represent a new class of yet undiscovered gamma-ray sources. By assuming that galaxies similar to the Milky Way host comparable populations of objects, we constrain the allowed Galactic abundance and distribution of various classes of gamma-ray sources using the EGRET data set. Furthermore, regardless of the nature of the unidentified sources, faint unresolved objects of the same class contribute to the observed diffuse gamma-ray background. We investigate the potential contribution of these unresolved sources to the extragalactic gamma-ray background

  12. Open source molecular modeling.

    Pirhadi, Somayeh; Sunseri, Jocelyn; Koes, David Ryan

    2016-09-01

    The success of molecular modeling and computational chemistry efforts are, by definition, dependent on quality software applications. Open source software development provides many advantages to users of modeling applications, not the least of which is that the software is free and completely extendable. In this review we categorize, enumerate, and describe available open source software packages for molecular modeling and computational chemistry. An updated online version of this catalog can be found at https://opensourcemolecularmodeling.github.io. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A self-consistent model of cosmic-ray fluxes and positron excess: roles of nearby pulsars and a sub-dominant source population

    Joshi, Jagdish C.; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: jjagdish@uj.ac.za, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za [Department of Physics, University of Johannesburg, P. O. Box 524, Auckland Park 2006 (South Africa)

    2017-09-01

    The cosmic-ray positron flux calculated using the cosmic-ray nuclei interactions in our Galaxy cannot explain observed data above 10 GeV. An excess in the measured positron flux is therefore open to interpretation. Nearby pulsars, located within sub-kiloparsec range of the Solar system, are often invoked as plausible sources contributing to the excess. We show that an additional, sub-dominant population of sources together with the contributions from a few nearby pulsars can explain the latest positron excess data from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS). We simultaneously model, using the DRAGON code, propagation of cosmic-ray proton, Helium, electron and positron and fit their respective flux data. Our fit to the Boron to Carbon ratio data gives a diffusion spectral index of 0.45, which is close to the Kraichnan turbulent spectrum.

  14. Sources of population and family planning assistance.

    1983-01-01

    This document assesses the current status of population and family planning assistance throughout the world and provides brief sketches of the available sources including national governments, intergovernmental agencies such as the UNFPA and other UN entities, and nongovernmental funding, technical assistance, or funding and technical assistance organizations. The descriptions of aid-granting organizations describe their purposes, sources of funding, and activities, and give addresses where further information may be sought. At present about $100 million of the US $1 billion spent for family planning in developing countries each year comes from individuals paying for their own supplies and services, over $400 million is spent by national governments on their own programs, and about $450 million comes from developed country governments and private agencies. Over half of external assistance appears to be channeled through international agencies, and only a few countries provide a substantial proportion of aid bilaterally. In the past decade several governments, particularly in Asia, significantly increased the share of program costs they assumed themselves, and the most populous developing countries, China, India, and Indonesia, now contribute most of the funding for their own programs. Although at least 130 countries have provided population aid at some time, most is given by 12 industrialized countries. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) is the largest single donor, but the US share of population assistance has declined to 50% of all assistance in 1981 from 60% in the early 1970s. Governments of Communist bloc countries have made only small contributions to international population assistance. Most governmental asistance is in cash grant form, but loans, grants in kind, and technical assistance are also provided. Private organizations give assistance primarily to other private organizations in developing countries, and have been major innovators in

  15. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  16. Estimation of population dose from all sources in Japan

    Kusama, Tomoko; Nakagawa, Takeo; Kai, Michiaki; Yoshizawa, Yasuo

    1988-01-01

    The purposes of estimation of population doses are to understand the per-caput doses of the public member from each artificial radiation source and to determine the proportion contributed of the doses from each individual source to the total irradiated population. We divided the population doses into two categories: individual-related and source-related population doses. The individual-related population dose is estimated based on the maximum assumption for use in allocation of the dose limits for members of the public. The source-related population dose is estimated both to justify the sources and practices and to optimize radiation protection. The source-related population dose, therefore, should be estimated as realistically as possible. We investigated all sources that caused exposure to the population in Japan from the above points of view

  17. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  18. Mosquito population regulation and larval source management in heterogeneous environments.

    David L Smith

    Full Text Available An important question for mosquito population dynamics, mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and vector control is how mosquito populations are regulated. Here we develop simple models with heterogeneity in egg laying patterns and in the responses of larval populations to crowding in aquatic habitats. We use the models to evaluate how such heterogeneity affects mosquito population regulation and the effects of larval source management (LSM. We revisit the notion of a carrying capacity and show how heterogeneity changes our understanding of density dependence and the outcome of LSM. Crowding in and productivity of aquatic habitats is highly uneven unless egg-laying distributions are fine-tuned to match the distribution of habitats' carrying capacities. LSM reduces mosquito population density linearly with coverage if adult mosquitoes avoid laying eggs in treated habitats, but quadratically if eggs are laid in treated habitats and the effort is therefore wasted (i.e., treating 50% of habitat reduces mosquito density by approximately 75%. Unsurprisingly, targeting (i.e. treating a subset of the most productive pools gives much larger reductions for similar coverage, but with poor targeting, increasing coverage could increase adult mosquito population densities if eggs are laid in higher capacity habitats. Our analysis suggests that, in some contexts, LSM models that accounts for heterogeneity in production of adult mosquitoes provide theoretical support for pursuing mosquito-borne disease prevention through strategic and repeated application of modern larvicides.

  19. Photovoltaic sources modeling

    Petrone, Giovanni; Spagnuolo, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    This comprehensive guide surveys all available models for simulating a photovoltaic (PV) generator at different levels of granularity, from cell to system level, in uniform as well as in mismatched conditions. Providing a thorough comparison among the models, engineers have all the elements needed to choose the right PV array model for specific applications or environmental conditions matched with the model of the electronic circuit used to maximize the PV power production.

  20. Population genetics models of local ancestry.

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-06-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with Wright-Fisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of "European" gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances.

  1. Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

    Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

    2014-01-01

    Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

  2. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  3. Characterization of the near-source population around five ...

    Many ports are currently preparing for increased freight traffic, which may result in elevated local air pollution in areas near the port and freight transportation corridors. In this study, a geographical information system (GIS) analysis of areas surrounding five ports – Port of New York and New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Port of Savannah, Port of Miami, and Port of Houston – was conducted to characterize the population that might be affected by air emissions from the freight transportation network and to determine which sources had the potential to affect the most people. Defining “near-source” populations as living within 300 m of the freight transportation network, namely the port and associated truck routes, railroads, and intermodal facilities (e. g. rail yards and warehouses); near-source populations ranged from 37,000 to over a million within 10 km of a port. At the ports considered, the population living within 300 m of the port boundary constituted of the total near-source population. Sensitive population exposure was also indicated, such as the 81 day care centers and K-12 schools in near-source environments within 2 km of the Port of New York and New Jersey. Minority groups constituted 55 % to 85 % of the near-source populations in the five port areas. For four of the five ports, the mean and median income of the near-source population was lower and the minority percentage was higher than the population living adjacent to the near-sou

  4. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  5. Redwoods: a population model.

    Bosch, C A

    1971-04-23

    The chief conclusion to be drawn from the results of this study is that redwoods are amazingly vigorous. The results support both the lumber companies and the conservationists. There is no question that old growth giant redwoods must be preserved. Only commercial greed could be a basis for refuting that stand. On the other hand, the lumber companies seem to be supported in their contention that redwoods can be farmed without driving them to extinction. The central issue revolves around the old trees. And here profit is the big factor. Lumbering is an important industry in California, and redwood lumbering represents about 20 percent of the industry (l). Most of the big names in timber, such as Weyerhaeuser and Georgia-Pacific, are involved in logging the California redwood. At the current rate of logging, particularly of old growth stands, the Bank of America estimates that employment in Humboldt County will be down significantly by 1975 (4). It has been argued that tourism would more than compensate for the lower employment in logging. But not if the trees that the tourists come to see are gone. Why can't young and mature trees be harvested at a reasonable rate, the old trees saved, and both tourism and logging flourish? The question posed earlier has been answered. Redwood growth and survival can be modeled, using matrix methods in a new context. Meaningful conclusions may be drawn. And the results are sufficiently tantalizing to inspire further research.

  6. Constraints on Galactic populations from the unidentified EGRET sources

    Siegal-Gaskins, Jennifer M.; Pavlidou, Vasiliki; Brown, Carolyn; Olinto, Angela V.; Fields, Brian D.

    2007-01-01

    A significant fraction of the sources in the third EGRET catalog have not yet been identified with a low-energy counterpart. We evaluate the plausibility of a Galactic population accounting for some or all of the unidentified EGRET sources by making the simple assumption that galaxies similar to the Milky Way host comparable populations of gamma-ray emitters. Rather than focusing on the properties of a specific candidate emitter, we constrain the abundance and spatial distribution of proposed Galactic populations. We find that it is highly improbable that the unidentified EGRET sources contain more than a handful of members of a Galactic halo population, but that current observations are consistent with all of these sources being Galactic objects if they reside entirely in the disk and bulge. We discuss the additional constraints and new insights into the nature of Galactic gamma-ray emitting populations that GLAST is expected to provide

  7. Modelling Choice of Information Sources

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

  8. Identifying populations at risk from environmental contamination from point sources

    Williams, F; Ogston, S

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To compare methods for defining the population at risk from a point source of air pollution. A major challenge for environmental epidemiology lies in correctly identifying populations at risk from exposure to environmental pollutants. The complexity of today's environment makes it essential that the methods chosen are accurate and sensitive.

  9. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  10. Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

    Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

    2018-01-01

    Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough

  11. Assessing Model Characterization of Single Source ...

    Aircraft measurements made downwind from specific coal fired power plants during the 2013 Southeast Nexus field campaign provide a unique opportunity to evaluate single source photochemical model predictions of both O3 and secondary PM2.5 species. The model did well at predicting downwind plume placement. The model shows similar patterns of an increasing fraction of PM2.5 sulfate ion to the sum of SO2 and PM2.5 sulfate ion by distance from the source compared with ambient based estimates. The model was less consistent in capturing downwind ambient based trends in conversion of NOX to NOY from these sources. Source sensitivity approaches capture near-source O3 titration by fresh NO emissions, in particular subgrid plume treatment. However, capturing this near-source chemical feature did not translate into better downwind peak estimates of single source O3 impacts. The model estimated O3 production from these sources but often was lower than ambient based source production. The downwind transect ambient measurements, in particular secondary PM2.5 and O3, have some level of contribution from other sources which makes direct comparison with model source contribution challenging. Model source attribution results suggest contribution to secondary pollutants from multiple sources even where primary pollutants indicate the presence of a single source. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, deci

  12. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  13. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  14. Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

    Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

  15. Learning models for multi-source integration

    Tejada, S.; Knoblock, C.A.; Minton, S. [Univ. of Southern California/ISI, Marina del Rey, CA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Because of the growing number of information sources available through the internet there are many cases in which information needed to solve a problem or answer a question is spread across several information sources. For example, when given two sources, one about comic books and the other about super heroes, you might want to ask the question {open_quotes}Is Spiderman a Marvel Super Hero?{close_quotes} This query accesses both sources; therefore, it is necessary to have information about the relationships of the data within each source and between sources to properly access and integrate the data retrieved. The SIMS information broker captures this type of information in the form of a model. All the information sources map into the model providing the user a single interface to multiple sources.

  16. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  17. PSRPOPPy: an open-source package for pulsar population simulations

    Bates, S. D.; Lorimer, D. R.; Rane, A.; Swiggum, J.

    2014-04-01

    We have produced a new software package for the simulation of pulsar populations, PSRPOPPY, based on the PSRPOP package. The codebase has been re-written in Python (save for some external libraries, which remain in their native Fortran), utilizing the object-oriented features of the language, and improving the modularity of the code. Pre-written scripts are provided for running the simulations in `standard' modes of operation, but the code is flexible enough to support the writing of personalised scripts. The modular structure also makes the addition of experimental features (such as new models for period or luminosity distributions) more straightforward than with the previous code. We also discuss potential additions to the modelling capabilities of the software. Finally, we demonstrate some potential applications of the code; first, using results of surveys at different observing frequencies, we find pulsar spectral indices are best fitted by a normal distribution with mean -1.4 and standard deviation 1.0. Secondly, we model pulsar spin evolution to calculate the best fit for a relationship between a pulsar's luminosity and spin parameters. We used the code to replicate the analysis of Faucher-Giguère & Kaspi, and have subsequently optimized their power-law dependence of radio luminosity, L, with period, P, and period derivative, Ṗ. We find that the underlying population is best described by L ∝ P-1.39±0.09 Ṗ0.48±0.04 and is very similar to that found for γ-ray pulsars by Perera et al. Using this relationship, we generate a model population and examine the age-luminosity relation for the entire pulsar population, which may be measurable after future large-scale surveys with the Square Kilometre Array.

  18. Photovoltaic sources modeling and emulation

    Piazza, Maria Carmela Di

    2012-01-01

    This book offers an extensive introduction to the modeling of photovoltaic generators and their emulation by means of power electronic converters will aid in understanding and improving design and setup of new PV plants.

  19. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  20. Exposure of the Spanish population to radiation from natural sources

    Garcia-Talavera, M.; Suarez, E.; Matarranz, J.L.; Salas, R.; Ramos, L.

    2006-01-01

    We have assessed the exposure of the Spanish population to natural radiation sources. The annual average effective dose is estimated to be 2.38 mSv, taking into account contributions from cosmic radiation (13.8%), terrestrial gamma radiation (39%), radon and thoron inhalation (34%) and ingestion (13.2%). Cosmic radiation doses were calculated from town altitude data. Terrestrial gamma ray exposure outdoors was derived from the M.A.R.N.A. (natural gamma radiation map of Spain). Indoor gamma ray exposure was calculated by multiplying the corresponding outdoor value by a conversion factor, which was obtained by a linear least-squares fit of experimental measurements. Radon doses were estimated from national surveys carried out throughout the country. To assess doses by ingestion of water and foodstuffs we considered the results from a detailed study on consumption habits by age and geographical area in Spain, promoted by C.S.N., and average radioactivity values from UNSCEAR. (authors)

  1. Exposure of the Spanish population to radiation from natural sources

    Garcia-Talavera, M.; Suarez, E.; Matarranz, J.L.; Salas, R.; Ramos, L. [Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear. Justo Dorado, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-07-01

    We have assessed the exposure of the Spanish population to natural radiation sources. The annual average effective dose is estimated to be 2.38 mSv, taking into account contributions from cosmic radiation (13.8%), terrestrial gamma radiation (39%), radon and thoron inhalation (34%) and ingestion (13.2%). Cosmic radiation doses were calculated from town altitude data. Terrestrial gamma ray exposure outdoors was derived from the M.A.R.N.A. (natural gamma radiation map of Spain). Indoor gamma ray exposure was calculated by multiplying the corresponding outdoor value conversion factor, which was obtained by a linear least-squares fit of experimental measurements. Radon doses were estimated from national surveys carried out throughout the country. To assess doses by ingestion of water and foodstuffs we considered the results from a detailed study on consumption habits by age and geographical area in Spain, promoted by C.S.N., and average radioactivity values from UNSCEAR. (authors)

  2. The Commercial Open Source Business Model

    Riehle, Dirk

    Commercial open source software projects are open source software projects that are owned by a single firm that derives a direct and significant revenue stream from the software. Commercial open source at first glance represents an economic paradox: How can a firm earn money if it is making its product available for free as open source? This paper presents the core properties of com mercial open source business models and discusses how they work. Using a commercial open source approach, firms can get to market faster with a superior product at lower cost than possible for traditional competitors. The paper shows how these benefits accrue from an engaged and self-supporting user community. Lacking any prior comprehensive reference, this paper is based on an analysis of public statements by practitioners of commercial open source. It forges the various anecdotes into a coherent description of revenue generation strategies and relevant business functions.

  3. An analytic uranium sources model

    Singer, C.E.

    2001-01-01

    This document presents a method for estimating uranium resources as a continuous function of extraction costs and describing the uncertainty in the resulting fit. The estimated functions provide convenient extrapolations of currently available data on uranium extraction cost and can be used to predict the effect of resource depletion on future uranium supply costs. As such, they are a useful input for economic models of the nuclear energy sector. The method described here pays careful attention to minimizing built-in biases in the fitting procedure and defines ways to describe the uncertainty in the resulting fits in order to render the procedure and its results useful to the widest possible variety of potential users. (author)

  4. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  5. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  6. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  7. Characterization and modeling of the heat source

    Glickstein, S.S.; Friedman, E.

    1993-10-01

    A description of the input energy source is basic to any numerical modeling formulation designed to predict the outcome of the welding process. The source is fundamental and unique to each joining process. The resultant output of any numerical model will be affected by the initial description of both the magnitude and distribution of the input energy of the heat source. Thus, calculated weld shape, residual stresses, weld distortion, cooling rates, metallurgical structure, material changes due to excessive temperatures and potential weld defects are all influenced by the initial characterization of the heat source. Understandings of both the physics and the mathematical formulation of these sources are essential for describing the input energy distribution. This section provides a brief review of the physical phenomena that influence the input energy distributions and discusses several different models of heat sources that have been used in simulating arc welding, high energy density welding and resistance welding processes. Both simplified and detailed models of the heat source are discussed.

  8. Balmorel open source energy system model

    Wiese, Frauke; Bramstoft, Rasmus; Koduvere, Hardi

    2018-01-01

    As the world progresses towards a cleaner energy future with more variable renewable energy sources, energy system models are required to deal with new challenges. This article describes design, development and applications of the open source energy system model Balmorel, which is a result...... of a long and fruitful cooperation between public and private institutions within energy system research and analysis. The purpose of the article is to explain the modelling approach, to highlight strengths and challenges of the chosen approach, to create awareness about the possible applications...... of Balmorel as well as to inspire to new model developments and encourage new users to join the community. Some of the key strengths of the model are the flexible handling of the time and space dimensions and the combination of operation and investment optimisation. Its open source character enables diverse...

  9. Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

    Kevin E McCluney

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web". Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

  10. Tracing water sources of terrestrial animal populations with stable isotopes: laboratory tests with crickets and spiders.

    McCluney, Kevin E; Sabo, John L

    2010-12-31

    Fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water between ecosystem components and organisms have great impacts across levels of biological organization. Although much progress has been made in tracing carbon and nitrogen, difficulty remains in tracing water sources from the ecosystem to animals and among animals (the "water web"). Naturally occurring, non-radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water provide a potential method for tracing water sources. However, using this approach for terrestrial animals is complicated by a change in water isotopes within the body due to differences in activity of heavy and light isotopes during cuticular and transpiratory water losses. Here we present a technique to use stable water isotopes to estimate the mean mix of water sources in a population by sampling a group of sympatric animals over time. Strong correlations between H and O isotopes in the body water of animals collected over time provide linear patterns of enrichment that can be used to predict a mean mix of water sources useful in standard mixing models to determine relative source contribution. Multiple temperature and humidity treatment levels do not greatly alter these relationships, thus having little effect on our ability to estimate this population-level mix of water sources. We show evidence for the validity of using multiple samples of animal body water, collected across time, to estimate the isotopic mix of water sources in a population and more accurately trace water sources. The ability to use isotopes to document patterns of animal water use should be a great asset to biologists globally, especially those studying drylands, droughts, streamside areas, irrigated landscapes, and the effects of climate change.

  11. Structured population models in biology and epidemiology

    Ruan, Shigui

    2008-01-01

    This book consists of six chapters written by leading researchers in mathematical biology. These chapters present recent and important developments in the study of structured population models in biology and epidemiology. Topics include population models structured by age, size, and spatial position; size-structured models for metapopulations, macroparasitc diseases, and prion proliferation; models for transmission of microparasites between host populations living on non-coincident spatial domains; spatiotemporal patterns of disease spread; method of aggregation of variables in population dynamics; and biofilm models. It is suitable as a textbook for a mathematical biology course or a summer school at the advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It can also serve as a reference book for researchers looking for either interesting and specific problems to work on or useful techniques and discussions of some particular problems.

  12. Faster universal modeling for two source classes

    Nowbakht, A.; Willems, F.M.J.; Macq, B.; Quisquater, J.-J.

    2002-01-01

    The Universal Modeling algorithms proposed in [2] for two general classes of finite-context sources are reviewed. The above methods were constructed by viewing a model structure as a partition of the context space and realizing that a partition can be reached through successive splits. Here we start

  13. System level modelling with open source tools

    Jakobsen, Mikkel Koefoed; Madsen, Jan; Niaki, Seyed Hosein Attarzadeh

    , called ForSyDe. ForSyDe is available under the open Source approach, which allows small and medium enterprises (SME) to get easy access to advanced modeling capabilities and tools. We give an introduction to the design methodology through the system level modeling of a simple industrial use case, and we...

  14. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg

  15. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  16. Probabilistic forward model for electroencephalography source analysis

    Plis, Sergey M; George, John S; Jun, Sung C; Ranken, Doug M; Volegov, Petr L; Schmidt, David M

    2007-01-01

    Source localization by electroencephalography (EEG) requires an accurate model of head geometry and tissue conductivity. The estimation of source time courses from EEG or from EEG in conjunction with magnetoencephalography (MEG) requires a forward model consistent with true activity for the best outcome. Although MRI provides an excellent description of soft tissue anatomy, a high resolution model of the skull (the dominant resistive component of the head) requires CT, which is not justified for routine physiological studies. Although a number of techniques have been employed to estimate tissue conductivity, no present techniques provide the noninvasive 3D tomographic mapping of conductivity that would be desirable. We introduce a formalism for probabilistic forward modeling that allows the propagation of uncertainties in model parameters into possible errors in source localization. We consider uncertainties in the conductivity profile of the skull, but the approach is general and can be extended to other kinds of uncertainties in the forward model. We and others have previously suggested the possibility of extracting conductivity of the skull from measured electroencephalography data by simultaneously optimizing over dipole parameters and the conductivity values required by the forward model. Using Cramer-Rao bounds, we demonstrate that this approach does not improve localization results nor does it produce reliable conductivity estimates. We conclude that the conductivity of the skull has to be either accurately measured by an independent technique, or that the uncertainties in the conductivity values should be reflected in uncertainty in the source location estimates

  17. A model for superliminal radio sources

    Milgrom, M.; Bahcall, J.N.

    1977-01-01

    A geometrical model for superluminal radio sources is described. Six predictions that can be tested by observations are summarized. The results are in agreement with all the available observations. In this model, the Hubble constant is the only numerical parameter that is important in interpreting the observed rates of change of angular separations for small redshifts. The available observations imply that H 0 is less than 55 km/s/Mpc if the model is correct. (author)

  18. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  19. Population-expression models of immune response

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  20. Air quality dispersion models from energy sources

    Lazarevska, Ana

    1996-01-01

    Along with the continuing development of new air quality models that cover more complex problems, in the Clean Air Act, legislated by the US Congress, a consistency and standardization of air quality model applications were encouraged. As a result, the Guidelines on Air Quality Models were published, which are regularly reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA. These guidelines provide a basis for estimating the air quality concentrations used in accessing control strategies as well as defining emission limits. This paper presents a review and analysis of the recent versions of the models: Simple Terrain Stationary Source Model; Complex Terrain Dispersion Model; Ozone,Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Dioxide Models; Long Range Transport Model; Other phenomenon Models:Fugitive Dust/Fugitive Emissions, Particulate Matter, Lead, Air Pathway Analyses - Air Toxic as well as Hazardous Waste. 8 refs., 4 tabs., 2 ills

  1. Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water

    Coulibaly, Lassina; Jakus, Paul M.; Keith, John E.

    2014-07-01

    A significant portion of the world's population lives in areas where public water delivery systems are unreliable and/or deliver poor quality water. In response, people have developed important alternatives to publicly supplied water. To date, most water demand research has been based on single-equation models for a single source of water, with very few studies that have examined water demand from two sources of water (where all nonpublic system water sources have been aggregated into a single demand). This modeling approach leads to two outcomes. First, the demand models do not capture the full range of alternatives, so the true economic relationship among the alternatives is obscured. Second, and more seriously, economic theory predicts that demand for a good becomes more price-elastic as the number of close substitutes increases. If researchers artificially limit the number of alternatives studied to something less than the true number, the price elasticity estimate may be biased downward. This paper examines water demand in a region with near universal access to piped water, but where system reliability and quality is such that many alternative sources of water exist. In extending the demand analysis to four sources of water, we are able to (i) demonstrate why households choose the water sources they do, (ii) provide a richer description of the demand relationships among sources, and (iii) calculate own-price elasticity estimates that are more elastic than those generally found in the literature.

  2. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  3. Sources and sinks of Earth's ring current populations

    Mauk, B.

    2017-12-01

    Processes that modify and transport current-carrying particles into and out of Earth's ring current regions are overviewed and discussed here with a focus on outstanding mysteries and uncertainties. Examples of such mysteries include the following. Some modeling and observational approaches point to a need for storm-time enhancements in the global electric field configuration to help bring magnetotail populations into the inner magnetosphere. And yet, electric field measurements from several missions, most recently the Van Allen Probes, suggest that only highly transient enhancements occur in critical regions that connect the outer and inner regions. Global enhancements appear to be internally generated rather than necessarily being driven from the outside. Another sample mystery involves the processes that give rise to the sometimes initial prompt recovery of the magnetic storm indice DST, given that loss processes traditionally invoked are likely too slow. Wave losses, such as those engendered by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves, may be responsible, but observational support for such a solution is lacking. These and other uncertainties are discussed with a goal of addressing how they might be addressed with the present great constellation of Earth-orbiting spacecraft, most recently joined by MMS and Arase (ERG).

  4. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  5. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  6. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  7. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Béchaux, Camille, E-mail: Camille.bechaux@anses.fr [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Bodin, Laurent [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France); Clémençon, Stéphan [Telecom ParisTech, 46 rue Barrault, 75634 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Crépet, Amélie [ANSES, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety, 27-31 Avenue du Général Leclerc, 94701 Maisons-Alfort (France)

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  8. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-01-01

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure

  9. Developing a Successful Open Source Training Model

    Belinda Lopez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Training programs for open source software provide a tangible, and sellable, product. A successful training program not only builds revenue, it also adds to the overall body of knowledge available for the open source project. By gathering best practices and taking advantage of the collective expertise within a community, it may be possible for a business to partner with an open source project to build a curriculum that promotes the project and supports the needs of the company's training customers. This article describes the initial approach used by Canonical, the commercial sponsor of the Ubuntu Linux operating system, to engage the community in the creation of its training offerings. We then discuss alternate curriculum creation models and some of the conditions that are necessary for successful collaboration between creators of existing documentation and commercial training providers.

  10. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  11. The COLOFOL trial: study design and comparison of the study population with the source cancer population

    Hansdotter Andersson P

    2016-01-01

    eligible patients. However, a difference was noted in tumor location and stage distribution, with 5.6% more patients in the randomized group having colon cancer and 6.7% more patients having stage II disease. Conclusion: Patients in the two study arms were not only demographically similar, but also similar to nonincluded eligible patients, apart from stage and localization. The analyses will be stratified by these variables. Taken together, we conclude that our trial results will be robust and possible to extrapolate to the target population. Keywords: trial design, source population, colorectal cancer, follow-up

  12. Open source integrated modeling environment Delta Shell

    Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Jagers, B.; van Putten, H.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, integrated modelling has become a very popular topic in environmental modelling since it helps solving problems, which is difficult to model using a single model. However, managing complexity of integrated models and minimizing time required for their setup remains a challenging task. The integrated modelling environment Delta Shell simplifies this task. The software components of Delta Shell are easy to reuse separately from each other as well as a part of integrated environment that can run in a command-line or a graphical user interface mode. The most components of the Delta Shell are developed using C# programming language and include libraries used to define, save and visualize various scientific data structures as well as coupled model configurations. Here we present two examples showing how Delta Shell simplifies process of setting up integrated models from the end user and developer perspectives. The first example shows coupling of a rainfall-runoff, a river flow and a run-time control models. The second example shows how coastal morphological database integrates with the coastal morphological model (XBeach) and a custom nourishment designer. Delta Shell is also available as open-source software released under LGPL license and accessible via http://oss.deltares.nl.

  13. Cosmogenic photons strongly constrain UHECR source models

    van Vliet Arjen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the newest version of our Monte Carlo code for ultra-high-energy cosmic ray (UHECR propagation, CRPropa 3, the flux of neutrinos and photons due to interactions of UHECRs with extragalactic background light can be predicted. Together with the recently updated data for the isotropic diffuse gamma-ray background (IGRB by Fermi LAT, it is now possible to severely constrain UHECR source models. The evolution of the UHECR sources especially plays an important role in the determination of the expected secondary photon spectrum. Pure proton UHECR models are already strongly constrained, primarily by the highest energy bins of Fermi LAT’s IGRB, as long as their number density is not strongly peaked at recent times.

  14. Comments to a polar bear population model

    Øritsland, Nils Are

    1985-01-01

    Larsen, T. & Ugland, K. I. (Polar Research 2 n.s., 117-118) note correctly that a Leslie matrix model treats cubs and females as independent units which is not the case for polar bears. Population projections using the Leslie model with hunting mortalities added are instructive first approximations in evaluations of field data, however, and are recommended as exercises also for polar bear biologists. An APL programme for such projections is available.

  15. Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

    Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all marker...

  16. Time-dependent source model of the Lusi mud volcano

    Shirzaei, M.; Rudolph, M. L.; Manga, M.

    2014-12-01

    The Lusi mud eruption, near Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, began erupting in May 2006 and continues to erupt today. Previous analyses of surface deformation data suggested an exponential decay of the pressure in the mud source, but did not constrain the geometry and evolution of the source(s) from which the erupting mud and fluids ascend. To understand the spatiotemporal evolution of the mud and fluid sources, we apply a time-dependent inversion scheme to a densely populated InSAR time series of the surface deformation at Lusi. The SAR data set includes 50 images acquired on 3 overlapping tracks of the ALOS L-band satellite between May 2006 and April 2011. Following multitemporal analysis of this data set, the obtained surface deformation time series is inverted in a time-dependent framework to solve for the volume changes of distributed point sources in the subsurface. The volume change distribution resulting from this modeling scheme shows two zones of high volume change underneath Lusi at 0.5-1.5 km and 4-5.5km depth as well as another shallow zone, 7 km to the west of Lusi and underneath the Wunut gas field. The cumulative volume change within the shallow source beneath Lusi is ~2-4 times larger than that of the deep source, whilst the ratio of the Lusi shallow source volume change to that of Wunut gas field is ~1. This observation and model suggest that the Lusi shallow source played a key role in eruption process and mud supply, but that additional fluids do ascend from depths >4 km on eruptive timescales.

  17. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  18. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    Jakeman, E; Hopcraft, K I; Matthews, J O

    2005-01-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N -(1+α) (0 < α < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system

  19. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  20. Limitation of population's irradiation by natural sources of ionizing radiation

    Krisyuk, Eh.M.

    1989-01-01

    Review of works devoted to evaluating the human irradiation doses at the expense of the main sources of ionizing radiation, is given. It is shown that the human irradiation doses at the expense of DDP can be reduced 10 times and more. However to realize such measures it is necessary to study the efficiency and determine the cost of various protective activities as well as to develop the criteria of their realization necessity

  1. Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears.

    Boulanger, John; Kendall, Katherine C; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Roon, David A; Waits, Lisette P; Paetkau, David

    2008-04-01

    A fundamental challenge to estimating population size with mark-recapture methods is heterogeneous capture probabilities and subsequent bias of population estimates. Confronting this problem usually requires substantial sampling effort that can be difficult to achieve for some species, such as carnivores. We developed a methodology that uses two data sources to deal with heterogeneity and applied this to DNA mark-recapture data from grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). We improved population estimates by incorporating additional DNA "captures" of grizzly bears obtained by collecting hair from unbaited bear rub trees concurrently with baited, grid-based, hair snag sampling. We consider a Lincoln-Petersen estimator with hair snag captures as the initial session and rub tree captures as the recapture session and develop an estimator in program MARK that treats hair snag and rub tree samples as successive sessions. Using empirical data from a large-scale project in the greater Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, area and simulation modeling we evaluate these methods and compare the results to hair-snag-only estimates. Empirical results indicate that, compared with hair-snag-only data, the joint hair-snag-rub-tree methods produce similar but more precise estimates if capture and recapture rates are reasonably high for both methods. Simulation results suggest that estimators are potentially affected by correlation of capture probabilities between sample types in the presence of heterogeneity. Overall, closed population Huggins-Pledger estimators showed the highest precision and were most robust to sparse data, heterogeneity, and capture probability correlation among sampling types. Results also indicate that these estimators can be used when a segment of the population has zero capture probability for one of the methods. We propose that this general methodology may be useful for other species in which mark-recapture data are available from multiple sources.

  2. Markov source model for printed music decoding

    Kopec, Gary E.; Chou, Philip A.; Maltz, David A.

    1995-03-01

    This paper describes a Markov source model for a simple subset of printed music notation. The model is based on the Adobe Sonata music symbol set and a message language of our own design. Chord imaging is the most complex part of the model. Much of the complexity follows from a rule of music typography that requires the noteheads for adjacent pitches to be placed on opposite sides of the chord stem. This rule leads to a proliferation of cases for other typographic details such as dot placement. We describe the language of message strings accepted by the model and discuss some of the imaging issues associated with various aspects of the message language. We also point out some aspects of music notation that appear problematic for a finite-state representation. Development of the model was greatly facilitated by the duality between image synthesis and image decoding. Although our ultimate objective was a music image model for use in decoding, most of the development proceeded by using the evolving model for image synthesis, since it is computationally far less costly to image a message than to decode an image.

  3. Modeling of renewable hybrid energy sources

    Dumitru Cristian Dragos

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments and trends in the electric power consumption indicate an increasing use of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. By this point of view studies on renewable energies focuses more and more attention. The present paper intends to present different mathematical models related to different types of renewable energy sources such as: solar energy and wind energy. It is also presented the validation and adaptation of such models to hybrid systems working in geographical and meteorological conditions specific to central part of Transylvania region. The conclusions based on validation of such models are also shown.

  4. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  5. Use of models in small mammal population studies

    Conley, W.; Nichols, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The role of models as contributors to the understanding of natural populations of small mammals is reviewed. A philosophy of model use and projections for future work are also included. Categories of biological phenomena reviewed include models on population dynamics (demographic variables and population regulation, dispersal, sex-ratios, predation, population cycles), population responses to environmental conditions, genetics of small mammal populations, competitive interactions, ecosystems and small mammal functions, and control and management of small mammal populations

  6. Phase transitions in a lattice population model

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J

    2007-01-01

    We introduce a model for a population on a lattice with diffusion and birth/death according to 2A→3A and A→Φ for a particle A. We find that the model displays a phase transition from an active to an absorbing state which is continuous in 1 + 1 dimensions and of first-order in higher dimensions in agreement with the mean field equation. For the (1 + 1)-dimensional case, we examine the critical exponents and a scaling function for the survival probability and show that it belongs to the universality class of directed percolation. In higher dimensions, we look at the first-order phase transition by plotting a histogram of the population density and use the presence of phase coexistence to find an accurate value for the critical point in 2 + 1 dimensions

  7. Modeling a neutron rich nuclei source

    Mirea, M.; Bajeat, O.; Clapier, F.; Ibrahim, F.; Mueller, A.C.; Pauwels, N.; Proust, J. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire, IN2P3/CNRS, 91 - Orsay (France); Mirea, M. [Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Tandem Lab., Bucharest (Romania)

    2000-07-01

    The deuteron break-up process in a suitable converter gives rise to intense neutron beams. A source of neutron rich nuclei based on the neutron induced fission can be realised using these beams. A theoretical optimization of such a facility as a function of the incident deuteron energy is reported. The model used to determine the fission products takes into account the excitation energy of the target nucleus and the evaporation of prompt neutrons. Results are presented in connection with a converter-target specific geometry. (author000.

  8. Modeling a neutron rich nuclei source

    Mirea, M.; Bajeat, O.; Clapier, F.; Ibrahim, F.; Mueller, A.C.; Pauwels, N.; Proust, J.; Mirea, M.

    2000-01-01

    The deuteron break-up process in a suitable converter gives rise to intense neutron beams. A source of neutron rich nuclei based on the neutron induced fission can be realised using these beams. A theoretical optimization of such a facility as a function of the incident deuteron energy is reported. The model used to determine the fission products takes into account the excitation energy of the target nucleus and the evaporation of prompt neutrons. Results are presented in connection with a converter-target specific geometry. (authors)

  9. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  10. Population-based imaging biobanks as source of big data.

    Gatidis, Sergios; Heber, Sophia D; Storz, Corinna; Bamberg, Fabian

    2017-06-01

    Advances of computational sciences over the last decades have enabled the introduction of novel methodological approaches in biomedical research. Acquiring extensive and comprehensive data about a research subject and subsequently extracting significant information has opened new possibilities in gaining insight into biological and medical processes. This so-called big data approach has recently found entrance into medical imaging and numerous epidemiological studies have been implementing advanced imaging to identify imaging biomarkers that provide information about physiological processes, including normal development and aging but also on the development of pathological disease states. The purpose of this article is to present existing epidemiological imaging studies and to discuss opportunities, methodological and organizational aspects, and challenges that population imaging poses to the field of big data research.

  11. Data analysis and source modelling for LISA

    Shang, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The gravitational waves are one of the most important predictions in general relativity. Besides of the directly proof of the existence of GWs, there are already several ground based detectors (such as LIGO, GEO, etc) and the planed future space mission (such as: LISA) which are aim to detect the GWs directly. GW contain a large amount of information of its source, extracting these information can help us dig out the physical property of the source, even open a new window for understanding the Universe. Hence, GW data analysis will be a challenging task in seeking the GWs. In this thesis, I present two works about the data analysis for LISA. In the first work, we introduce an extended multimodal genetic algorithm which utilizes the properties of the signal and the detector response function to analyze the data from the third round of mock LISA data challenge. We have found all five sources present in the data and recovered the coalescence time, chirp mass, mass ratio and sky location with reasonable accuracy. As for the orbital angular momentum and two spins of the Black Holes, we have found a large number of widely separated modes in the parameter space with similar maximum likelihood values. The performance of this method is comparable, if not better, to already existing algorithms. In the second work, we introduce an new phenomenological waveform model for the extreme mass ratio inspiral system. This waveform consists of a set of harmonics with constant amplitude and slowly evolving phase which we decompose in a Taylor series. We use these phenomenological templates to detect the signal in the simulated data, and then, assuming a particular EMRI model, estimate the physical parameters of the binary with high precision. The results show that our phenomenological waveform is very feasible in the data analysis of EMRI signal.

  12. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  13. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  14. Location of odor sources and the affected population in Imperial County, California

    Hahn, J.L.

    1981-08-01

    This report is divided into four sections. The first two sections contain general background information on Imperial County. The third section is a general discussion of odor sources in Imperial County, and the fourth maps the specific odor sources, the expected areas of perception, and the affected populations. this mapping is done for the Imperial Valley and each of the four Imperial County KGRA's (Known Geothermal Resource Areas) where odor from the development of the geothermal energy may affect population.

  15. Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

    Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

    1993-10-01

    The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs

  16. Population matrix models and palm resource management

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available MATRICES DE POPULATIONS ET MISE EN VALEUR DES PALMIERS. Au cours des 20 dernières années, les structures de population de nombreuses espèces de palmiers ont été décrites et discutées. La croissance et la stabilité des populations ont été analysées à l’aide de matrices. Dans cet article, nous reprenons un modèle et en discutons les aspects méthodologiques en vue d’une estimation des paramètres de l’histoire de la vie des palmiers. Les généralisations résultant de précédentes études sont présentées et les conséquences pour la mise en valeur des palmiers, concernant en particulier la confection de toitures, les fruits, la récolte des stipes, sont discutées. MATRICES DE POBLACIONES Y MANEJO DE PALMERAS. En los últimos 20 años, las estructuras de población de numerosas especies de palmeras han sido descritas y discutidas. El crecimiento y la estabilidad de las poblaciones han sido analizadas, utilizando matrices. En el presente artículo, presentamos un modelo y discutimos los aspectos metodológicos específicos para hacer una estimación de los parámetros de la historia de la vida de las palmeras. Son presentadas las generalizaciones diseñadas por estudios previos, y discutidas las implicancias en el manejo de las palmeras, en cuanto a techado, frutas, cosecha de los estípites. Population structures of numerous palm species have been described and discussed in the last 20 years. Population growth and stability have been analyzed with matrix models. In this paper we review matrix models and discuss methodological issues specific to estimating palm life history parameters. Generalizations drawn from previous studies are presented and implications for palm resource management, specifically for thatch, fruit, and stem harvest, are discussed.

  17. Competition as a source of constraint on life history evolution in natural populations.

    Wilson, A J

    2014-01-01

    Competition among individuals is central to our understanding of ecology and population dynamics. However, it could also have major implications for the evolution of resource-dependent life history traits (for example, growth, fecundity) that are important determinants of fitness in natural populations. This is because when competition occurs, the phenotype of each individual will be causally influenced by the phenotypes, and so the genotypes, of competitors. Theory tells us that indirect genetic effects arising from competitive interactions will give rise to the phenomenon of 'evolutionary environmental deterioration', and act as a source of evolutionary constraint on resource-dependent traits under natural selection. However, just how important this constraint is remains an unanswered question. This article seeks to stimulate empirical research in this area, first highlighting some patterns emerging from life history studies that are consistent with a competition-based model of evolutionary constraint, before describing several quantitative modelling strategies that could be usefully applied. A recurrent theme is that rigorous quantification of a competition's impact on life history evolution will require an understanding of the causal pathways and behavioural processes by which genetic (co)variance structures arise. Knowledge of the G-matrix among life history traits is not, in and of itself, sufficient to identify the constraints caused by competition.

  18. An open source business model for malaria.

    Årdal, Christine; Røttingen, John-Arne

    2015-01-01

    Greater investment is required in developing new drugs and vaccines against malaria in order to eradicate malaria. These precious funds must be carefully managed to achieve the greatest impact. We evaluate existing efforts to discover and develop new drugs and vaccines for malaria to determine how best malaria R&D can benefit from an enhanced open source approach and how such a business model may operate. We assess research articles, patents, clinical trials and conducted a smaller survey among malaria researchers. Our results demonstrate that the public and philanthropic sectors are financing and performing the majority of malaria drug/vaccine discovery and development, but are then restricting access through patents, 'closed' publications and hidden away physical specimens. This makes little sense since it is also the public and philanthropic sector that purchases the drugs and vaccines. We recommend that a more "open source" approach is taken by making the entire value chain more efficient through greater transparency which may lead to more extensive collaborations. This can, for example, be achieved by empowering an existing organization like the Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) to act as a clearing house for malaria-related data. The malaria researchers that we surveyed indicated that they would utilize such registry data to increase collaboration. Finally, we question the utility of publicly or philanthropically funded patents for malaria medicines, where little to no profits are available. Malaria R&D benefits from a publicly and philanthropically funded architecture, which starts with academic research institutions, product development partnerships, commercialization assistance through UNITAID and finally procurement through mechanisms like The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and the U.S.' President's Malaria Initiative. We believe that a fresh look should be taken at the cost/benefit of patents particularly related to new malaria

  19. An open source business model for malaria.

    Christine Årdal

    Full Text Available Greater investment is required in developing new drugs and vaccines against malaria in order to eradicate malaria. These precious funds must be carefully managed to achieve the greatest impact. We evaluate existing efforts to discover and develop new drugs and vaccines for malaria to determine how best malaria R&D can benefit from an enhanced open source approach and how such a business model may operate. We assess research articles, patents, clinical trials and conducted a smaller survey among malaria researchers. Our results demonstrate that the public and philanthropic sectors are financing and performing the majority of malaria drug/vaccine discovery and development, but are then restricting access through patents, 'closed' publications and hidden away physical specimens. This makes little sense since it is also the public and philanthropic sector that purchases the drugs and vaccines. We recommend that a more "open source" approach is taken by making the entire value chain more efficient through greater transparency which may lead to more extensive collaborations. This can, for example, be achieved by empowering an existing organization like the Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV to act as a clearing house for malaria-related data. The malaria researchers that we surveyed indicated that they would utilize such registry data to increase collaboration. Finally, we question the utility of publicly or philanthropically funded patents for malaria medicines, where little to no profits are available. Malaria R&D benefits from a publicly and philanthropically funded architecture, which starts with academic research institutions, product development partnerships, commercialization assistance through UNITAID and finally procurement through mechanisms like The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and the U.S.' President's Malaria Initiative. We believe that a fresh look should be taken at the cost/benefit of patents particularly related

  20. About Block Dynamic Model of Earthquake Source.

    Gusev, G. A.; Gufeld, I. L.

    One may state the absence of a progress in the earthquake prediction papers. The short-term prediction (diurnal period, localisation being also predicted) has practical meaning. Failure is due to the absence of the adequate notions about geological medium, particularly, its block structure and especially in the faults. Geological and geophysical monitoring gives the basis for the notion about geological medium as open block dissipative system with limit energy saturation. The variations of the volume stressed state close to critical states are associated with the interaction of the inhomogeneous ascending stream of light gases (helium and hydrogen) with solid phase, which is more expressed in the faults. In the background state small blocks of the fault medium produce the sliding of great blocks in the faults. But for the considerable variations of ascending gas streams the formation of bound chains of small blocks is possible, so that bound state of great blocks may result (earthquake source). Recently using these notions we proposed a dynamical earthquake source model, based on the generalized chain of non-linear bound oscillators of Fermi-Pasta-Ulam type (FPU). The generalization concerns its in homogeneity and different external actions, imitating physical processes in the real source. Earlier weak inhomogeneous approximation without dissipation was considered. Last has permitted to study the FPU return (return to initial state). Probabilistic properties in quasi periodic movement were found. The chain decay problem due to non-linearity and external perturbations was posed. The thresholds and dependence of life- time of the chain are studied. The great fluctuations of life-times are discovered. In the present paper the rigorous consideration of the inhomogeneous chain including the dissipation is considered. For the strong dissipation case, when the oscillation movements are suppressed, specific effects are discovered. For noise action and constantly arising

  1. Using temporal sampling to improve attribution of source populations for invasive species.

    Sharyn J Goldstien

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have applied genetic tools to the identification of source populations and transport pathways for invasive species. However, there are many gaps in the knowledge obtained from such studies because comprehensive and meaningful spatial sampling to meet these goals is difficult to achieve. Sampling populations as they arrive at the border should fill the gaps in source population identification, but such an advance has not yet been achieved with genetic data. Here we use previously acquired genetic data to assign new incursions as they invade populations within New Zealand ports and marinas. We also investigated allelelic frequency change in these recently established populations over a two-year period, and assessed the effect of temporal genetic sampling on our ability to assign new incursions to their population of source. We observed shifts in the allele frequencies among populations, as well as the complete loss of some alleles and the addition of alleles novel to New Zealand, within these recently established populations. There was no significant level of genetic differentiation observed in our samples between years, and the use of these temporal data did alter the assignment probability of new incursions. Our study further suggests that new incursions can add genetic variation to the population in a single introduction event as the founders themselves are often more genetically diverse than theory initially predicted.

  2. sources

    Shu-Yin Chiang

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the simplified models of the ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode multiplexer network with Bernoulli random traffic sources. Based on the model, the performance measures are analyzed by the different output service schemes.

  3. Heat source model for welding process

    Doan, D.D.

    2006-10-01

    One of the major industrial stakes of the welding simulation relates to the control of mechanical effects of the process (residual stress, distortions, fatigue strength... ). These effects are directly dependent on the temperature evolutions imposed during the welding process. To model this thermal loading, an original method is proposed instead of the usual methods like equivalent heat source approach or multi-physical approach. This method is based on the estimation of the weld pool shape together with the heat flux crossing the liquid/solid interface, from experimental data measured in the solid part. Its originality consists in solving an inverse Stefan problem specific to the welding process, and it is shown how to estimate the parameters of the weld pool shape. To solve the heat transfer problem, the interface liquid/solid is modeled by a Bezier curve ( 2-D) or a Bezier surface (3-D). This approach is well adapted to a wide diversity of weld pool shapes met for the majority of the current welding processes (TIG, MlG-MAG, Laser, FE, Hybrid). The number of parameters to be estimated is weak enough, according to the cases considered from 2 to 5 in 20 and 7 to 16 in 3D. A sensitivity study leads to specify the location of the sensors, their number and the set of measurements required to a good estimate. The application of the method on test results of welding TIG on thin stainless steel sheets in emerging and not emerging configurations, shows that only one measurement point is enough to estimate the various weld pool shapes in 20, and two points in 3D, whatever the penetration is full or not. In the last part of the work, a methodology is developed for the transient analysis. It is based on the Duvaut's transformation which overpasses the discontinuity of the liquid metal interface and therefore gives a continuous variable for the all spatial domain. Moreover, it allows to work on a fixed mesh grid and the new inverse problem is equivalent to identify a source

  4. Monte Carlo simulation models of breeding-population advancement.

    J.N. King; G.R. Johnson

    1993-01-01

    Five generations of population improvement were modeled using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was designed to address questions that are important to the development of an advanced generation breeding population. Specifically we addressed the effects on both gain and effective population size of different mating schemes when creating a recombinant population for...

  5. Probabilistic models of population evolution scaling limits, genealogies and interactions

    Pardoux, Étienne

    2016-01-01

    This expository book presents the mathematical description of evolutionary models of populations subject to interactions (e.g. competition) within the population. The author includes both models of finite populations, and limiting models as the size of the population tends to infinity. The size of the population is described as a random function of time and of the initial population (the ancestors at time 0). The genealogical tree of such a population is given. Most models imply that the population is bound to go extinct in finite time. It is explained when the interaction is strong enough so that the extinction time remains finite, when the ancestral population at time 0 goes to infinity. The material could be used for teaching stochastic processes, together with their applications. Étienne Pardoux is Professor at Aix-Marseille University, working in the field of Stochastic Analysis, stochastic partial differential equations, and probabilistic models in evolutionary biology and population genetics. He obtai...

  6. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  7. Modelling of H.264 MPEG2 TS Traffic Source

    Stanislav Klucik

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with IPTV traffic source modelling. Traffic sources are used for simulation, emulation and real network testing. This model is made as a derivation of known recorded traffic sources that are analysed and statistically processed. As the results show the proposed model causes in comparison to the known traffic source very similar network traffic parameters when used in a simulated network.

  8. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  9. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  10. Computerized dosimetry of I-125 sources model 6711

    Isturiz, J.

    2001-01-01

    It tries on: physical presentation of the sources; radiation protection; mathematical model of I-125 source model 6711; data considered for the calculation program; experimental com probation of the dose distribution; exposure rate and apparent activity; techniques of the use given to the sources I-125; and the calculation planning systems [es

  11. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Source Term Model for Fine Particle Resuspension from Indoor Surfaces

    Kim, Yoojeong; Gidwani, Ashok; Sippola, Mark; Sohn, Chang W

    2008-01-01

    This Phase I effort developed a source term model for particle resuspension from indoor surfaces to be used as a source term boundary condition for CFD simulation of particle transport and dispersion in a building...

  13. Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

    2010-01-01

    mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

  14. Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

    Merkle, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

  15. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    Song, S. G.

    2013-12-24

    Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

  16. Assessment of dose contribution to population exposure from the radiation sources in the alienated Chernobyl zone

    Grodzinsky, D.M.; Francevych, L.K.; Koval, H.N.; Yakovlev, E.A.; Bezdrobny, Yu.V.; Proscura, N.I.; Pyantkowsky, V.L.

    1997-01-01

    The main dose load of Ukrainian population is caused by radionuclide-contamination of country territories, located outside the alienated zone, following Chernobyl accident. Besides, much attention could be devoted to the contribution of dose load on population, received from the radioactivity sources that were transferred out from the zone after accident. Present research and analysis of the available documents reflecting the transfer of radioactivity from the alienated zone, provided the estimates of dose load on population, resulting from transfer of the radioactivity sources via following channels: (1) direct surface flow; (2) underground waters; (3) wind-powdered route; (4) transfer with hydrobionts; (5) transfer during irrigation; (6) biogenic route; (7) transport routes and (8) route during wood transportation. Dynamics of radiation transfer through each channel was also studied for the post-accident period. Specific gravity of radioactivity transfer is determined in relation to dose load on Ukrainian population in different regions, in particular, in Dnipro river basin. The perspectives of radioactivity transfer via each of studied channels and its role in dose load on population were also analyzed. On the basis of present results the recommendations on possible arrangements are working out that aimed to reduce the dose contribution in population exposure by radioactivity source transfer from the alienated zone via channels that stipulate the largest dose loads and collective doses

  17. Computational model of Amersham I-125 source model 6711 and Prosper Pd-103 source model MED3633 using MCNP

    Menezes, Artur F.; Reis Junior, Juraci P.; Silva, Ademir X., E-mail: ademir@con.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Rosa, Luiz A.R. da, E-mail: lrosa@ird.gov.b [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Facure, Alessandro [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Cardoso, Simone C., E-mail: Simone@if.ufrj.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (IF/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Nuclear

    2011-07-01

    Brachytherapy is used in cancer treatment at shorter distances through the use of small encapsulated source of ionizing radiation. In such treatment, a radiation source is positioned directly into or near the target volume to be treated. In this study the Monte Carlo based MCNP code was used to model and simulate the I-125 Amersham Health source model 6711 and the Pd-103 Prospera source model MED3633 in order to obtain the dosimetric parameter dose rate constant ({Lambda}) . The sources geometries were modeled and implemented in MCNPX code. The dose rate constant is an important parameter prostate LDR brachytherapy's treatments planning. This study was based on American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) recommendations which were produced by its Task Group 43. The results obtained were 0.941 and 0.65 for the dose rate constants of I-125 and Pd-103 sources, respectively. They present good agreement with the literature values based on different Monte Carlo codes. (author)

  18. Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

    Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

    2010-11-01

    • Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

  19. Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

  20. Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

    Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

    2015-01-01

    Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

  1. Studies and modeling of cold neutron sources

    Campioni, G.

    2004-11-01

    With the purpose of updating knowledge in the fields of cold neutron sources, the work of this thesis has been run according to the 3 following axes. First, the gathering of specific information forming the materials of this work. This set of knowledge covers the following fields: cold neutron, cross-sections for the different cold moderators, flux slowing down, different measurements of the cold flux and finally, issues in the thermal analysis of the problem. Secondly, the study and development of suitable computation tools. After an analysis of the problem, several tools have been planed, implemented and tested in the 3-dimensional radiation transport code Tripoli-4. In particular, a module of uncoupling, integrated in the official version of Tripoli-4, can perform Monte-Carlo parametric studies with a spare factor of Cpu time fetching 50 times. A module of coupling, simulating neutron guides, has also been developed and implemented in the Monte-Carlo code McStas. Thirdly, achieving a complete study for the validation of the installed calculation chain. These studies focus on 3 cold sources currently functioning: SP1 from Orphee reactor and 2 other sources (SFH and SFV) from the HFR at the Laue Langevin Institute. These studies give examples of problems and methods for the design of future cold sources

  2. Discussion of Source Reconstruction Models Using 3D MCG Data

    Melis, Massimo De; Uchikawa, Yoshinori

    In this study we performed the source reconstruction of magnetocardiographic signals generated by the human heart activity to localize the site of origin of the heart activation. The localizations were performed in a four compartment model of the human volume conductor. The analyses were conducted on normal subjects and on a subject affected by the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Different models of the source activation were used to evaluate whether a general model of the current source can be applied in the study of the cardiac inverse problem. The data analyses were repeated using normal and vector component data of the MCG. The results show that a distributed source model has the better accuracy in performing the source reconstructions, and that 3D MCG data allow finding smaller differences between the different source models.

  3. Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

    Yasuharu Nagano

    Full Text Available Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury.A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors.The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%. However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001.

  4. Analysis of the rate setting system on Russia population exposure limitation by natural irradiation sources

    Stamat, I.P.

    2009-01-01

    In this work the condition of the legal securing of radiation safety system for the population of Russia under the influence of natural sources of radiation was analyzed. The system had been created during the latter 30 years. The ways of its improvement and harmonization according to the recommendations of authoritative organization were examined

  5. Model predictive control for Z-source power converter

    Mo, W.; Loh, P.C.; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents Model Predictive Control (MPC) of impedance-source (commonly known as Z-source) power converter. Output voltage control and current control for Z-source inverter are analyzed and simulated. With MPC's ability of multi- system variables regulation, load current and voltage...

  6. COMBINING SOURCES IN STABLE ISOTOPE MIXING MODELS: ALTERNATIVE METHODS

    Stable isotope mixing models are often used to quantify source contributions to a mixture. Examples include pollution source identification; trophic web studies; analysis of water sources for soils, plants, or water bodies; and many others. A common problem is having too many s...

  7. Evaluation and distribution of doses received by Cuban population due to environmental sources of radioactivity

    Zerquera, Juan T.; Prendes Alonso, Miguel; Fernandez Gomez, Isis M.; Lopez Bejerano, Gladys

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In the frame of a national research project supported by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment of the Republic of Cuba doses received by Cuban population due to the exposure to existing in the environment sources of radiation were assessed. Direct measurements of sources representing 90% of average total doses to world population according to UNSCEAR data were made and estimations of doses were obtained for the different components of the total dose: doses due to the exposure to cosmic radiation, external terrestrial radiation, potassium contained in human body and inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides present in the environment. Using the obtained results it was made an estimation of total doses to Cuban population due to environmental radiation sources and the contributions of different dose components were assessed. This was carried out through a Monte Carlo simulation of the total doses using the parameter of dose distributions obtained for the different contributors (components) to total dose. On the basis of the estimations the average total effective dose to Cuban population due to the exposure to environmental sources was estimated as 1.1 ± 0.3 mSv per year. This low dose value is in the range of doses estimated by UNSCEAR for world population due to natural background and can be explained by the specific of Cuban environment: a majority of the population living at the sea level or at low altitudes, relative low content of primordial radionuclides in soils and high ventilation rates in dwellings. All the instructions specified in the Call for Abstracts should be taken into account. e/ 41 and 457. (author)

  8. Trans Fat Intake and Its Dietary Sources in General Populations Worldwide: A Systematic Review

    Anne J. Wanders

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available After the discovery that trans fat increases the risk of coronary heart disease, trans fat content of foods have considerably changed. The aim of this study was to systematically review available data on intakes of trans fat and its dietary sources in general populations worldwide. Data from national dietary surveys and population studies published from 1995 onward were searched via Scopus and websites of national public health institutes. Relevant data from 29 countries were identified. The most up to date estimates of total trans fat intake ranged from 0.3 to 4.2 percent of total energy intake (En% across countries. Seven countries had trans fat intakes higher than the World Health Organization recommendation of 1 En%. In 16 out of 21 countries with data on dietary sources, intakes of trans fat from animal sources were higher than that from industrial sources. Time trend data from 20 countries showed substantial declines in industrial trans fat intake since 1995. In conclusion, nowadays, in the majority of countries for which data are available, average trans fat intake is lower than the recommended maximum intake of 1 En%, with intakes from animal sources being higher than from industrial sources. In the past 20 years, substantial reductions in industrial trans fat have been achieved in many countries.

  9. Trans Fat Intake and Its Dietary Sources in General Populations Worldwide: A Systematic Review

    Wanders, Anne J.; Zock, Peter L.; Brouwer, Ingeborg A.

    2017-01-01

    After the discovery that trans fat increases the risk of coronary heart disease, trans fat content of foods have considerably changed. The aim of this study was to systematically review available data on intakes of trans fat and its dietary sources in general populations worldwide. Data from national dietary surveys and population studies published from 1995 onward were searched via Scopus and websites of national public health institutes. Relevant data from 29 countries were identified. The most up to date estimates of total trans fat intake ranged from 0.3 to 4.2 percent of total energy intake (En%) across countries. Seven countries had trans fat intakes higher than the World Health Organization recommendation of 1 En%. In 16 out of 21 countries with data on dietary sources, intakes of trans fat from animal sources were higher than that from industrial sources. Time trend data from 20 countries showed substantial declines in industrial trans fat intake since 1995. In conclusion, nowadays, in the majority of countries for which data are available, average trans fat intake is lower than the recommended maximum intake of 1 En%, with intakes from animal sources being higher than from industrial sources. In the past 20 years, substantial reductions in industrial trans fat have been achieved in many countries. PMID:28783062

  10. Earthquake source model using strong motion displacement

    The strong motion displacement records available during an earthquake can be treated as the response of the earth as the a structural system to unknown forces acting at unknown locations. Thus, if the part of the earth participating in ground motion is modelled as a known finite elastic medium, one can attempt to model the ...

  11. Repairing business process models as retrieved from source code

    Fernández-Ropero, M.; Reijers, H.A.; Pérez-Castillo, R.; Piattini, M.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, H.A.; Soffer, P.; Krogstie, J.; Schmidt, R.; Halpin, T.; Bider, I.

    2013-01-01

    The static analysis of source code has become a feasible solution to obtain underlying business process models from existing information systems. Due to the fact that not all information can be automatically derived from source code (e.g., consider manual activities), such business process models

  12. Quasistatic modelling of the coaxial slow source

    Hahn, K.D.; Pietrzyk, Z.A.; Vlases, G.C.

    1986-01-01

    A new 1-D Lagrangian MHD numerical code in flux coordinates has been developed for the Coaxial Slow Source (CSS) geometry. It utilizes the quasistatic approximation so that the plasma evolves as a succession of equilibria. The P=P (psi) equilibrium constraint, along with the assumption of infinitely fast axial temperature relaxation on closed field lines, is incorporated. An axially elongated, rectangular plasma is assumed. The axial length is adjusted by the global average condition, or assumed to be fixed. In this paper predictions obtained with the code, and a limited amount of comparison with experimental data are presented

  13. Mercury Stable Isotopes Discriminate Different Populations of European Seabass and Trace Potential Hg Sources around Europe.

    Cransveld, Alice; Amouroux, David; Tessier, Emmanuel; Koutrakis, Emmanuil; Ozturk, Ayaka A; Bettoso, Nicola; Mieiro, Cláudia L; Bérail, Sylvain; Barre, Julien P G; Sturaro, Nicolas; Schnitzler, Joseph; Das, Krishna

    2017-11-07

    Our study reports the first data on mercury (Hg) isotope composition in marine European fish, for seven distinct populations of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax. The use of δ 202 Hg and Δ 199 Hg values in SIBER enabled us to estimate Hg isotopic niches, successfully discriminating several populations. Recursive-partitioning analyses demonstrated the relevance of Hg stable isotopes as discriminating tools. Hg isotopic values also provided insight on Hg contamination sources for biota in coastal environment. The overall narrow range of δ 202 Hg around Europe was suggested to be related to a global atmospheric contamination while δ 202 Hg at some sites was linked either to background contamination, or with local contamination sources. Δ 199 Hg was related to Hg levels of fish but we also suggest a relation with ecological conditions. Throughout this study, results from the Black Sea population stood out, displaying a Hg cycling similar to fresh water lakes. Our findings bring out the possibility to use Hg isotopes in order to discriminate distinct populations, to explore the Hg cycle on a large scale (Europe) and to distinguish sites contaminated by global versus local Hg source. The interest of using Hg sable isotopes to investigate the whole European Hg cycle is clearly highlighted.

  14. Significance of population centers as sources of gaseous and dissolved PAHs in the lower Great Lakes.

    McDonough, Carrie A; Khairy, Mohammed A; Muir, Derek C G; Lohmann, Rainer

    2014-07-15

    Polyethylene passive samplers (PEs) were used to measure concentrations of gaseous and dissolved polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the air and water throughout the lower Great Lakes during summer and fall of 2011. Atmospheric Σ15PAH concentrations ranged from 2.1 ng/m3 in Cape Vincent (NY) to 76.4 ng/m3 in downtown Cleveland (OH). Aqueous Σ18PAH concentrations ranged from 2.4 ng/L at an offshore Lake Erie site to 30.4 ng/L in Sheffield Lake (OH). Gaseous PAH concentrations correlated strongly with population within 3-40 km of the sampling site depending on the compound considered, suggesting that urban centers are a primary source of gaseous PAHs (except retene) in the lower Great Lakes region. The significance of distant population (within 20 km) versus local population (within 3 km) increased with subcooled liquid vapor pressure. Most dissolved aqueous PAHs did not correlate significantly with population, nor were they consistently related to river discharge, wastewater effluents, or precipitation. Air-water exchange calculations implied that diffusive exchange was a source of phenanthrene to surface waters, while acenaphthylene volatilized out of the lakes. Comparison of air-water fluxes with temperature suggested that the significance of urban centers as sources of dissolved PAHs via diffusive exchange may decrease in warmer months.

  15. A linear model of population dynamics

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  16. Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

    van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net

  17. Equivalent charge source model based iterative maximum neighbor weight for sparse EEG source localization.

    Xu, Peng; Tian, Yin; Lei, Xu; Hu, Xiao; Yao, Dezhong

    2008-12-01

    How to localize the neural electric activities within brain effectively and precisely from the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings is a critical issue for current study in clinical neurology and cognitive neuroscience. In this paper, based on the charge source model and the iterative re-weighted strategy, proposed is a new maximum neighbor weight based iterative sparse source imaging method, termed as CMOSS (Charge source model based Maximum neighbOr weight Sparse Solution). Different from the weight used in focal underdetermined system solver (FOCUSS) where the weight for each point in the discrete solution space is independently updated in iterations, the new designed weight for each point in each iteration is determined by the source solution of the last iteration at both the point and its neighbors. Using such a new weight, the next iteration may have a bigger chance to rectify the local source location bias existed in the previous iteration solution. The simulation studies with comparison to FOCUSS and LORETA for various source configurations were conducted on a realistic 3-shell head model, and the results confirmed the validation of CMOSS for sparse EEG source localization. Finally, CMOSS was applied to localize sources elicited in a visual stimuli experiment, and the result was consistent with those source areas involved in visual processing reported in previous studies.

  18. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  19. HOX and TALE signatures specify human stromal stem cell populations from different sources.

    Picchi, Jacopo; Trombi, Luisa; Spugnesi, Laura; Barachini, Serena; Maroni, Giorgia; Brodano, Giovanni Barbanti; Boriani, Stefano; Valtieri, Mauro; Petrini, Mario; Magli, Maria Cristina

    2013-04-01

    Human stromal stem cell populations reside in different tissues and anatomical sites, however a critical question related to their efficient use in regenerative medicine is whether they exhibit equivalent biological properties. Here, we compared cellular and molecular characteristics of stromal stem cells derived from the bone marrow, at different body sites (iliac crest, sternum, and vertebrae) and other tissues (dental pulp and colon). In particular, we investigated whether homeobox genes of the HOX and TALE subfamilies might provide suitable markers to identify distinct stromal cell populations, as HOX proteins control cell positional identity and, together with their co-factors TALE, are involved in orchestrating differentiation of adult tissues. Our results show that stromal populations from different sources, although immunophenotypically similar, display distinct HOX and TALE signatures, as well as different growth and differentiation abilities. Stromal stem cells from different tissues are characterized by specific HOX profiles, differing in the number and type of active genes, as well as in their level of expression. Conversely, bone marrow-derived cell populations can be essentially distinguished for the expression levels of specific HOX members, strongly suggesting that quantitative differences in HOX activity may be crucial. Taken together, our data indicate that the HOX and TALE profiles provide positional, embryological and hierarchical identity of human stromal stem cells. Furthermore, our data suggest that cell populations derived from different body sites may not represent equivalent cell sources for cell-based therapeutical strategies for regeneration and repair of specific tissues. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    Song, S. G.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2013-01-01

    statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point

  1. Modeling Group Interactions via Open Data Sources

    2011-08-30

    data. The state-of-art search engines are designed to help general query-specific search and not suitable for finding disconnected online groups. The...groups, (2) developing innovative mathematical and statistical models and efficient algorithms that leverage existing search engines and employ

  2. Nitrogen component in nonpoint source pollution models

    Pollutants entering a water body can be very destructive to the health of that system. Best Management Practices (BMPs) and/or conservation practices are used to reduce these pollutants, but understanding the most effective practices is very difficult. Watershed models are an effective tool to aid...

  3. Application of source-receptor models to determine source areas of biological components (pollen and butterflies)

    M. Alarcón; M. Àvila; J. Belmonte; C. Stefanescu; R. Izquierdo

    2010-01-01

    The source-receptor models allow the establishment of relationships between a receptor point (sampling point) and the probable source areas (regions of emission) through the association of concentration values at the receptor point with the corresponding atmospheric back-trajectories, and, together with other techniques, to interpret transport phenomena on a synoptic scale. These models are generally used in air pollution studies to determine the areas of origin of chemical compounds measured...

  4. The modifying effect of the building envelope on population exposure to PM2.5 from outdoor sources

    Taylor, J; Shrubsole, C; Davies, M; Biddulph, P; Das, P; Hamilton, I; Vardoulakis, S; Mavrogianni, A; Jones, B; Oikonomou, E

    2014-01-01

    A number of studies have estimated population exposure to PM2.5 by examining modeled or measured outdoor PM2.5 levels. However, few have taken into account the mediating effects of building characteristics on the ingress of PM2.5 from outdoor sources and its impact on population exposure in the indoor domestic environment. This study describes how building simulation can be used to determine the indoor concentration of outdoor-sourced pollution for different housing typologies and how the results can be mapped using building stock models and Geographical Information Systems software to demonstrate the modifying effect of dwellings on occupant exposure to PM2.5 across London. Building archetypes broadly representative of those in the Greater London Authority were simulated for pollution infiltration using EnergyPlus. In addition, the influence of occupant behavior on indoor levels of PM2.5 from outdoor sources was examined using a temperature-dependent window-opening scenario. Results demonstrate a range of I/O ratios of PM2.5, with detached and semi-detached dwellings most vulnerable to high levels of infiltration. When the results are mapped, central London shows lower I/O ratios of PM2.5 compared with outer London, an apparent inversion of exposure most likely caused by the prevalence of flats rather than detached or semi-detached properties. PMID:24713025

  5. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  6. A general consumer-resource population model

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  7. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  8. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  9. Information sources and knowledge on vaccination in a population from southern Italy: The ESCULAPIO project.

    Tabacchi, Garden; Costantino, Claudio; Cracchiolo, Manuela; Ferro, Antonio; Marchese, Valentina; Napoli, Giuseppe; Palmeri, Sara; Raia, Daniele; Restivo, Vincenzo; Siddu, Andrea; Vitale, Francesco; Casuccio, Alessandra

    2017-02-01

    Vaccine knowledge of the general population is shaped by different information sources and strongly influences vaccination attitudes and uptake. The CCM-Italian Ministry of Health ESCULAPIO project attempted to identify the role of such information sources, in order to address adequate strategies to improve information on vaccines and vaccine preventable diseases. In the present study, data on 632 adults from Southern Italy regarding information sources were collected, and their perceived and actual knowledge on vaccinations were compared and analyzed in relation to socio-demographic characteristics and information sources. The main reported reference sources were general practitioners (GPs) (42.5%) and pediatricians (33.1%), followed by mass media (24.1%) and the Internet (17.6%). A total of 45.4% reported they believed to be informed (45.4%), while those estimated to be truly informed were 43.8%. However, as showed in the multivariate logistic regression, people having the perception to be correctly informed ascribed their good knowledge to their profession in the health sector (Adj OR 2.28, CI 1.09-4.77, p informed population thought the responsibility had to be attributed to mass media (AdjOR 0.45, CI 0.22-0.92, p information, instead, were younger (AdjOR 1.64, CI 1.04-2.59, p information about vaccination should be addressed to fortifying healthcare workers knowledge in order to make them public health opinion leaders. General population should be provided with correct indications on trustworthy websites on vaccines to contrast false information supplied by anti-vaccinists on their own websites or social networks pages and on the mass media.

  10. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  11. Bayesian mixture models for source separation in MEG

    Calvetti, Daniela; Homa, Laura; Somersalo, Erkki

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the problem of imaging electromagnetic brain activity from measurements of the induced magnetic field outside the head. This imaging modality, magnetoencephalography (MEG), is known to be severely ill posed, and in order to obtain useful estimates for the activity map, complementary information needs to be used to regularize the problem. In this paper, a particular emphasis is on finding non-superficial focal sources that induce a magnetic field that may be confused with noise due to external sources and with distributed brain noise. The data are assumed to come from a mixture of a focal source and a spatially distributed possibly virtual source; hence, to differentiate between those two components, the problem is solved within a Bayesian framework, with a mixture model prior encoding the information that different sources may be concurrently active. The mixture model prior combines one density that favors strongly focal sources and another that favors spatially distributed sources, interpreted as clutter in the source estimation. Furthermore, to address the challenge of localizing deep focal sources, a novel depth sounding algorithm is suggested, and it is shown with simulated data that the method is able to distinguish between a signal arising from a deep focal source and a clutter signal. (paper)

  12. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  13. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  14. Constraints on equivalent elastic source models from near-source data

    Stump, B.

    1993-01-01

    A phenomenological based seismic source model is important in quantifying the important physical processes that affect the observed seismic radiation in the linear-elastic regime. Representations such as these were used to assess yield effects on seismic waves under a Threshold Test Ban Treaty and to help transport seismic coupling experience at one test site to another. These same characterizations in a non-proliferation environment find applications in understanding the generation of the different types of body and surface waves from nuclear explosions, single chemical explosions, arrays of chemical explosions used in mining, rock bursts and earthquakes. Seismologists typically begin with an equivalent elastic representation of the source which when convolved with the propagation path effects produces a seismogram. The Representation Theorem replaces the true source with an equivalent set of body forces, boundary conditions or initial conditions. An extension of this representation shows the equivalence of the body forces, boundary conditions and initial conditions and replaces the source with a set of force moments, the first degree moment tensor for a point source representation. The difficulty with this formulation, which can completely describe the observed waveforms when the propagation path effects are known, is in the physical interpretation of the actual physical processes acting in the source volume. Observational data from within the source region, where processes are often nonlinear, linked to numerical models of the important physical processes in this region are critical to a unique physical understanding of the equivalent elastic source function

  15. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  16. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  17. Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

    Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration

  18. Data Sources for NetZero Ft Carson Model

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Table of values used to parameterize and evaluate the Ft Carson NetZero integrated Model with published reference sources for each value. This dataset is associated...

  19. Near-Source Modeling Updates: Building Downwash & Near-Road

    The presentation describes recent research efforts in near-source model development focusing on building downwash and near-road barriers. The building downwash section summarizes a recent wind tunnel study, ongoing computational fluid dynamics simulations and efforts to improve ...

  20. Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase.

    Kun Chen

    Full Text Available For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.

  1. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

  2. Rate-control algorithms testing by using video source model

    Belyaev, Evgeny; Turlikov, Andrey; Ukhanova, Anna

    2008-01-01

    In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set.......In this paper the method of rate control algorithms testing by the use of video source model is suggested. The proposed method allows to significantly improve algorithms testing over the big test set....

  3. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  4. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  5. Earthquake Source Spectral Study beyond the Omega-Square Model

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake source spectra have been used for characterizing earthquake source processes quantitatively and, at the same time, simply, so that we can analyze the source spectra for many earthquakes, especially for small earthquakes, at once and compare them each other. A standard model for the source spectra is the omega-square model, which has the flat spectrum and the falloff inversely proportional to the square of frequencies at low and high frequencies, respectively, which are bordered by a corner frequency. The corner frequency has often been converted to the stress drop under the assumption of circular crack models. However, recent studies claimed the existence of another corner frequency [Denolle and Shearer, 2016; Uchide and Imanishi, 2016] thanks to the recent development of seismic networks. We have found that many earthquakes in areas other than the area studied by Uchide and Imanishi [2016] also have source spectra deviating from the omega-square model. Another part of the earthquake spectra we now focus on is the falloff rate at high frequencies, which will affect the seismic energy estimation [e.g., Hirano and Yagi, 2017]. In June, 2016, we deployed seven velocity seismometers in the northern Ibaraki prefecture, where the shallow crustal seismicity mainly with normal-faulting events was activated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We have recorded seismograms at 1000 samples per second and at a short distance from the source, so that we can investigate the high-frequency components of the earthquake source spectra. Although we are still in the stage of discovery and confirmation of the deviation from the standard omega-square model, the update of the earthquake source spectrum model will help us systematically extract more information on the earthquake source process.

  6. Evaluation of Personal and Built Environment Attributes to Physical Activity: A Multilevel Analysis on Multiple Population-Based Data Sources

    Wei Yang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Studies have documented that built environment factors potentially promote or impede leisure time physical activity (LTPA. This study explored the relationship between multiple built environment factors and individual characteristics on LTPA. Methods. Multiple data sources were utilized including individual level data for health behaviors and health status from the Nevada Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS and community level data from different data sources including indicators for recreation facilities, safety, air quality, commute time, urbanization, population density, and land mix level. Mixed model logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS spatial analysis were conducted. Results. Among 6,311 respondents, 24.4% reported no LTPA engagement during the past 30 days. No engagement in LTPA was significantly associated with (1 individual factors: older age, less education, lower income, being obesity, and low life satisfaction and (2 community factors: more commute time, higher crime rate, urban residence, higher population density, but not for density and distance to recreation facilities, air quality, and land mix. Conclusions. Multiple data systems including complex population survey and spatial analysis are valuable tools on health and built environment studies.

  7. Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes.

    Einat Granot-Atedgi

    Full Text Available Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME model-a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population.

  8. Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

    Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

    2017-07-01

    Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

  9. Monte Carlo modelling of large scale NORM sources using MCNP.

    Wallace, J D

    2013-12-01

    The representative Monte Carlo modelling of large scale planar sources (for comparison to external environmental radiation fields) is undertaken using substantial diameter and thin profile planar cylindrical sources. The relative impact of source extent, soil thickness and sky-shine are investigated to guide decisions relating to representative geometries. In addition, the impact of source to detector distance on the nature of the detector response, for a range of source sizes, has been investigated. These investigations, using an MCNP based model, indicate a soil cylinder of greater than 20 m diameter and of no less than 50 cm depth/height, combined with a 20 m deep sky section above the soil cylinder, are needed to representatively model the semi-infinite plane of uniformly distributed NORM sources. Initial investigation of the effect of detector placement indicate that smaller source sizes may be used to achieve a representative response at shorter source to detector distances. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Optimization of Excitation in FDTD Method and Corresponding Source Modeling

    B. Dimitrijevic

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Source and excitation modeling in FDTD formulation has a significant impact on the method performance and the required simulation time. Since the abrupt source introduction yields intensive numerical variations in whole computational domain, a generally accepted solution is to slowly introduce the source, using appropriate shaping functions in time. The main goal of the optimization presented in this paper is to find balance between two opposite demands: minimal required computation time and acceptable degradation of simulation performance. Reducing the time necessary for source activation and deactivation is an important issue, especially in design of microwave structures, when the simulation is intensively repeated in the process of device parameter optimization. Here proposed optimized source models are realized and tested within an own developed FDTD simulation environment.

  11. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  12. Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

    Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

  13. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    environmental conditions. Three cases are presented and discussed in this thesis. Common to all is the use of S. cerevisiae as model organism, and the use of cell size and cell cycle position as single-cell descriptors. The first case focuses on the experimental and mathematical description of a yeast...

  14. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

  15. Macronutrient Distribution and Dietary Sources in the Spanish Population: Findings from the ANIBES Study

    Emma Ruiz

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Our aim was to analyze dietary macronutrient intake and its main sources according to sex and age. Results were derived from the ANIBES (“Anthropometry, Intake and Energy Balance in Spain” cross-sectional study using a nationally-representative sample of the Spanish population (9–75 years old. Mean dietary protein intake was 74.5 ± 22.4 g/day, with meat and meat products as the main sources (33.0%. Mean carbohydrate intake was 185.4 ± 60.9 g/day and was higher in children and adolescents; grains (49%, mainly bread, were the main contributor. Milk and dairy products (23% ranked first for sugar intake. Mean lipid intake was 78.1 ± 26.1 g/day and was higher in younger age groups; contributions were mainly from oils and fats (32.5%; olive oil 25.6% and meat and meat products (22.0%. Lipid profiles showed relatively high monounsaturated fatty acid intake, of which olive oil contributed 38.8%. Saturated fatty acids were mainly (>70% combined from meat and meat products, milk and dairy products and oils and fats. Polyunsaturated fatty acids were mainly from oils and fats (31.5%. The macronutrient intake and distribution in the Spanish population is far from population reference intakes and nutritional goals, especially for children and adolescents.

  16. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  17. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Šarūnė Beinoraitė

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of personal characteristics, geographical location, broadband Internet penetration per 1000 inhabitants, issued business licenses per thousand population, competitiveness, innovation, registered enterprises per thousand population, the promotion of a entrepreneurship program, the average wage level, the number of loans taken for business per thousand population, the number of bankrupt enterprises per thousand population, the level of education, the subscription of newspapers and magazines on business.

  18. PHARAO laser source flight model: Design and performances

    Lévèque, T., E-mail: thomas.leveque@cnes.fr; Faure, B.; Esnault, F. X.; Delaroche, C.; Massonnet, D.; Grosjean, O.; Buffe, F.; Torresi, P. [Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Bomer, T.; Pichon, A.; Béraud, P.; Lelay, J. P.; Thomin, S. [Sodern, 20 Avenue Descartes, 94451 Limeil-Brévannes (France); Laurent, Ph. [LNE-SYRTE, CNRS, UPMC, Observatoire de Paris, 61 avenue de l’Observatoire, 75014 Paris (France)

    2015-03-15

    In this paper, we describe the design and the main performances of the PHARAO laser source flight model. PHARAO is a laser cooled cesium clock specially designed for operation in space and the laser source is one of the main sub-systems. The flight model presented in this work is the first remote-controlled laser system designed for spaceborne cold atom manipulation. The main challenges arise from mechanical compatibility with space constraints, which impose a high level of compactness, a low electric power consumption, a wide range of operating temperature, and a vacuum environment. We describe the main functions of the laser source and give an overview of the main technologies developed for this instrument. We present some results of the qualification process. The characteristics of the laser source flight model, and their impact on the clock performances, have been verified in operational conditions.

  19. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  20. A new tool that links landscale connectivity and source-sink dynamics to population viability

    The importance of connectivity and source-sink dynamics to conservation planning is widely appreciated. But the use of these concepts in practical applications such as the identification of critical habitat has been slowed because few models are designed to identify demographic s...

  1. The Unfolding of Value Sources During Online Business Model Transformation

    Nadja Hoßbach

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In the magazine publishing industry, viable online business models are still rare to absent. To prepare for the ‘digital future’ and safeguard their long-term survival, many publishers are currently in the process of transforming their online business model. Against this backdrop, this study aims to develop a deeper understanding of (1 how the different building blocks of an online business model are transformed over time and (2 how sources of value creation unfold during this transformation process. Methodology: To answer our research question, we conducted a longitudinal case study with a leading German business magazine publisher (called BIZ. Data was triangulated from multiple sources including interviews, internal documents, and direct observations. Findings: Based on our case study, we nd that BIZ used the transformation process to differentiate its online business model from its traditional print business model along several dimensions, and that BIZ’s online business model changed from an efficiency- to a complementarity- to a novelty-based model during this process. Research implications: Our findings suggest that different business model transformation phases relate to different value sources, questioning the appropriateness of value source-based approaches for classifying business models. Practical implications: The results of our case study highlight the need for online-offline business model differentiation and point to the important distinction between service and product differentiation. Originality: Our study contributes to the business model literature by applying a dynamic and holistic perspective on the link between online business model changes and unfolding value sources.

  2. Two Populations Mean-Field Monomer-Dimer Model

    Alberici, Diego; Mingione, Emanuele

    2018-04-01

    A two populations mean-field monomer-dimer model including both hard-core and attractive interactions between dimers is considered. The pressure density in the thermodynamic limit is proved to satisfy a variational principle. A detailed analysis is made in the limit of one population is much smaller than the other and a ferromagnetic mean-field phase transition is found.

  3. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  4. The Red MSX Source Survey: The Massive Young Stellar Population of Our Galaxy

    Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Urquhart, J. S.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Davies, B.; Mottram, J. C.; Cooper, H. D. B.; Moore, T. J. T.

    2013-09-01

    We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores.

  5. THE RED MSX SOURCE SURVEY: THE MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR POPULATION OF OUR GALAXY

    Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Cooper, H. D. B.; Urquhart, J. S.; Davies, B.; Moore, T. J. T.; Mottram, J. C.

    2013-01-01

    We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores

  6. THE RED MSX SOURCE SURVEY: THE MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR POPULATION OF OUR GALAXY

    Lumsden, S. L.; Hoare, M. G.; Oudmaijer, R. D.; Cooper, H. D. B. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Urquhart, J. S. [Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Auf dem Hügel 69, Bonn (Germany); Davies, B.; Moore, T. J. T. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 5RF (United Kingdom); Mottram, J. C. [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9513, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands)

    2013-09-01

    We present the Red MSX Source survey, the largest statistically selected catalog of young massive protostars and H II regions to date. We outline the construction of the catalog using mid- and near-infrared color selection. We also discuss the detailed follow up work at other wavelengths, including higher spatial resolution data in the infrared. We show that within the adopted selection bounds we are more than 90% complete for the massive protostellar population, with a positional accuracy of the exciting source of better than 2 arcsec. We briefly summarize some of the results that can be obtained from studying the properties of the objects in the catalog as a whole; we find evidence that the most massive stars form: (1) preferentially nearer the Galactic center than the anti-center; (2) in the most heavily reddened environments, suggestive of high accretion rates; and (3) from the most massive cloud cores.

  7. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  8. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  9. The faint radio source population at 15.7 GHz - II. Multi-wavelength properties

    Whittam, I. H.; Riley, J. M.; Green, D. A.; Jarvis, M. J.; Vaccari, M.

    2015-11-01

    A complete, flux density limited sample of 96 faint (>0.5 mJy) radio sources is selected from the 10C survey at 15.7 GHz in the Lockman Hole. We have matched this sample to a range of multi-wavelength catalogues, including Spitzer Extragalactic Representative Volume Survey, Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic survey, United Kingdom Infrared Telescope Infrared Deep Sky Survey and optical data; multi-wavelength counterparts are found for 80 of the 96 sources and spectroscopic redshifts are available for 24 sources. Photometric redshifts are estimated for the sources with multi-wavelength data available; the median redshift of the sample is 0.91 with an interquartile range of 0.84. Radio-to-optical ratios show that at least 94 per cent of the sample are radio loud, indicating that the 10C sample is dominated by radio galaxies. This is in contrast to samples selected at lower frequencies, where radio-quiet AGN and star-forming galaxies are present in significant numbers at these flux density levels. All six radio-quiet sources have rising radio spectra, suggesting that they are dominated by AGN emission. These results confirm the conclusions of Paper I that the faint, flat-spectrum sources which are found to dominate the 10C sample below ˜1 mJy are the cores of radio galaxies. The properties of the 10C sample are compared to the Square Kilometre Array Design Studies Simulated Skies; a population of low-redshift star-forming galaxies predicted by the simulation is not found in the observed sample.

  10. Sources of Legal Nihilism in the Sense of Justice of the Population of Russia

    Natalia A. Nazariva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is focused on the consideration of reasons and sources of an origin of legal nihilism as forms of the deformed sense of justice of citizens in Russia. By means of use of a deductive method the understanding of the term "legal nihilism" is formed. In article approaches to understanding of legal nihilism by the analysis of comparison of various positions of the leading philosophers are considered. Article considers development of sense of justice of the population against the historical processes happening in Russia throughout centuries. Relationships of cause and effect of formation and development of legal nihilism as reactions to social changes of society come to light.

  11. Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling

    Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.

    1985-01-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  12. Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.

    Casasent, D; Ghosh, A

    1985-06-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  13. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  14. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  15. MCNP model for the many KE-Basin radiation sources

    Rittmann, P.D.

    1997-01-01

    This document presents a model for the location and strength of radiation sources in the accessible areas of KE-Basin which agrees well with data taken on a regular grid in September of 1996. This modelling work was requested to support dose rate reduction efforts in KE-Basin. Anticipated fuel removal activities require lower dose rates to minimize annual dose to workers. With this model, the effects of component cleanup or removal can be estimated in advance to evaluate their effectiveness. In addition, the sources contributing most to the radiation fields in a given location can be identified and dealt with

  16. Who Uses the Internet as a Source of Nutrition and Dietary Information? An Australian Population Perspective.

    Pollard, Christina Mary; Pulker, Claire Elizabeth; Meng, Xingqiong; Kerr, Deborah Anne; Scott, Jane Anne

    2015-08-26

    The Internet contains a plethora of nutrition information. Health organizations are increasingly using the Internet to deliver population-wide health information and interventions. Effective interventions identify their target population and their needs; however, little is known about use of the Internet as a source of nutrition information. The aim was to assess the change in prevalence and demographic characteristics of Western Australian adults accessing the Internet as a source of nutrition information and identify specific information needs. Data were pooled from the Western Australian Department of Health's 3-yearly Nutrition Monitoring Survey Series telephone survey between 1995 and 2012 of 7044 participants aged 18 to 64 years. Outcome variables were the main sources of nutrition information used in the last year and yes/no responses to 4 suggestions to what would make it easier to eat a healthy diet. Sociodemographic variables were collected. The proportion of respondents using the Internet for nutrition information increased from Internet for this information increased significantly in 2009 (OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.07-3.88) and 2012 (OR 5.20, 95% CI 3.86-7.02, PInternet as a source were more likely to be female (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.60, P=.02), live in a metropolitan area (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, P=.03), born in countries other than Australia/UK/Ireland (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.85, P=.02), more educated (university: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.77-3.42, PInternet for nutrition information were more likely than nonusers to want to know quicker ways to prepare healthy foods (83.0% vs 78.1%, P=.005) and information on choosing healthy foods (76.3% vs 67.3%, PUse of the Internet as a main source of nutrition information has grown rapidly since 2004; one-third of Western Australian adults reported using the Internet for this purpose in 2012. Information on preparing healthy foods (ideas, quicker ways), choosing ingredients, and knowing more about cooking would make it

  17. Who Uses the Internet as a Source of Nutrition and Dietary Information? An Australian Population Perspective

    2015-01-01

    Background The Internet contains a plethora of nutrition information. Health organizations are increasingly using the Internet to deliver population-wide health information and interventions. Effective interventions identify their target population and their needs; however, little is known about use of the Internet as a source of nutrition information. Objective The aim was to assess the change in prevalence and demographic characteristics of Western Australian adults accessing the Internet as a source of nutrition information and identify specific information needs. Methods Data were pooled from the Western Australian Department of Health’s 3-yearly Nutrition Monitoring Survey Series telephone survey between 1995 and 2012 of 7044 participants aged 18 to 64 years. Outcome variables were the main sources of nutrition information used in the last year and yes/no responses to 4 suggestions to what would make it easier to eat a healthy diet. Sociodemographic variables were collected. Results The proportion of respondents using the Internet for nutrition information increased from Internet for this information increased significantly in 2009 (OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.07-3.88) and 2012 (OR 5.20, 95% CI 3.86-7.02, PInternet as a source were more likely to be female (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.60, P=.02), live in a metropolitan area (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, P=.03), born in countries other than Australia/UK/Ireland (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.85, P=.02), more educated (university: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.77-3.42, PInternet for nutrition information were more likely than nonusers to want to know quicker ways to prepare healthy foods (83.0% vs 78.1%, P=.005) and information on choosing healthy foods (76.3% vs 67.3%, PInternet as a main source of nutrition information has grown rapidly since 2004; one-third of Western Australian adults reported using the Internet for this purpose in 2012. Information on preparing healthy foods (ideas, quicker ways), choosing ingredients, and knowing more

  18. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  19. Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

    Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

  20. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  1. Model for Measuring the Entrepreneurship of the Population

    Drejeris, Rolandas; Beinoraitė, Šarūnė

    2014-01-01

    Population entrepreneurship is an important factor in the progress of economic development. This paper proposes a model of entrepreneurship measurement for comparing the level of entrepreneurship. The model consists of two main components, including criteria for the selection and determination of entrepreneurship by adapting the multi­criteria evaluation method TOPSIS. The most important criteria for identifying entrepreneurship cover the dynamics of the unemployment rate, the population of p...

  2. Effects of Source RDP Models and Near-source Propagation: Implication for Seismic Yield Estimation

    Saikia, C. K.; Helmberger, D. V.; Stead, R. J.; Woods, B. B.

    - It has proven difficult to uniquely untangle the source and propagation effects on the observed seismic data from underground nuclear explosions, even when large quantities of near-source, broadband data are available for analysis. This leads to uncertainties in our ability to quantify the nuclear seismic source function and, consequently the accuracy of seismic yield estimates for underground explosions. Extensive deterministic modeling analyses of the seismic data recorded from underground explosions at a variety of test sites have been conducted over the years and the results of these studies suggest that variations in the seismic source characteristics between test sites may be contributing to the observed differences in the magnitude/yield relations applicable at those sites. This contributes to our uncertainty in the determination of seismic yield estimates for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. In this paper we review issues involving the relationship of Nevada Test Site (NTS) source scaling laws to those at other sites. The Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) indicates that a magnitude (mb) bias (δmb) exists between the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the Nevada test site (NTS) in the United States. Generally this δmb is attributed to differential attenuation in the upper-mantle beneath the two test sites. This assumption results in rather large estimates of yield for large mb tunnel shots at Novaya Zemlya. A re-examination of the US testing experiments suggests that this δmb bias can partly be explained by anomalous NTS (Pahute) source characteristics. This interpretation is based on the modeling of US events at a number of test sites. Using a modified Haskell source description, we investigated the influence of the source Reduced Displacement Potential (RDP) parameters ψ ∞ , K and B by fitting short- and long-period data simultaneously, including the near-field body and surface waves. In general

  3. An Empirical Temperature Variance Source Model in Heated Jets

    Khavaran, Abbas; Bridges, James

    2012-01-01

    An acoustic analogy approach is implemented that models the sources of jet noise in heated jets. The equivalent sources of turbulent mixing noise are recognized as the differences between the fluctuating and Favre-averaged Reynolds stresses and enthalpy fluxes. While in a conventional acoustic analogy only Reynolds stress components are scrutinized for their noise generation properties, it is now accepted that a comprehensive source model should include the additional entropy source term. Following Goldstein s generalized acoustic analogy, the set of Euler equations are divided into two sets of equations that govern a non-radiating base flow plus its residual components. When the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow, the residual equations may be rearranged to form an inhomogeneous third-order wave equation. A general solution is written subsequently using a Green s function method while all non-linear terms are treated as the equivalent sources of aerodynamic sound and are modeled accordingly. In a previous study, a specialized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver was implemented to compute the variance of thermal fluctuations that determine the enthalpy flux source strength. The main objective here is to present an empirical model capable of providing a reasonable estimate of the stagnation temperature variance in a jet. Such a model is parameterized as a function of the mean stagnation temperature gradient in the jet, and is evaluated using commonly available RANS solvers. The ensuing thermal source distribution is compared with measurements as well as computational result from a dedicated RANS solver that employs an enthalpy variance and dissipation rate model. Turbulent mixing noise predictions are presented for a wide range of jet temperature ratios from 1.0 to 3.20.

  4. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  5. Open Sourcing Social Change: Inside the Constellation Model

    Tonya Surman; Mark Surman

    2008-01-01

    The constellation model was developed by and for the Canadian Partnership for Children's Health and the Environment. The model offers an innovative approach to organizing collaborative efforts in the social mission sector and shares various elements of the open source model. It emphasizes self-organizing and concrete action within a network of partner organizations working on a common issue. Constellations are self-organizing action teams that operate within the broader strategic vision of a ...

  6. White Dwarf Model Atmospheres: Synthetic Spectra for Super Soft Sources

    Rauch, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The T\\"ubingen NLTE Model-Atmosphere Package (TMAP) calculates fully metal-line blanketed white dwarf model atmospheres and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) at a high level of sophistication. Such SEDs are easily accessible via the German Astrophysical Virtual Observatory (GAVO) service TheoSSA. We discuss applications of TMAP models to (pre) white dwarfs during the hottest stages of their stellar evolution, e.g. in the parameter range of novae and super soft sources.

  7. White Dwarf Model Atmospheres: Synthetic Spectra for Supersoft Sources

    Rauch, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The Tübingen NLTE Model-Atmosphere Package (TMAP) calculates fully metal-line blanketed white dwarf model atmospheres and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) at a high level of sophistication. Such SEDs are easily accessible via the German Astrophysical Virtual Observatory (GAVO) service TheoSSA. We discuss applications of TMAP models to (pre) white dwarfs during the hottest stages of their stellar evolution, e.g. in the parameter range of novae and supersoft sources.

  8. Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

    Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

    2016-07-01

    Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

  9. Village-Level Identification of Nitrate Sources: Collaboration of Experts and Local Population in Benin, Africa

    Crane, P.; Silliman, S. E.; Boukari, M.; Atoro, I.; Azonsi, F.

    2005-12-01

    Deteriorating groundwater quality, as represented by high nitrates, in the Colline province of Benin, West Africa was identified by the Benin national water agency, Direction Hydraulique. For unknown reasons the Colline province had consistently higher nitrate levels than any other region of the country. In an effort to address this water quality issue, a collaborative team was created that incorporated professionals from the Universite d'Abomey-Calavi (Benin), the University of Notre Dame (USA), Direction l'Hydraulique (a government water agency in Benin), Centre Afrika Obota (an educational NGO in Benin), and the local population of the village of Adourekoman. The goals of the project were to: (i) identify the source of nitrates, (ii) test field techniques for long term, local monitoring, and (iii) identify possible solutions to the high levels of groundwater nitrates. In order to accomplish these goals, the following methods were utilized: regional sampling of groundwater quality, field methods that allowed the local population to regularly monitor village groundwater quality, isotopic analysis, and sociological methods of surveys, focus groups, and observations. It is through the combination of these multi-disciplinary methods that all three goals were successfully addressed leading to preliminary identification of the sources of nitrates in the village of Adourekoman, confirmation of utility of field techniques, and initial assessment of possible solutions to the contamination problem.

  10. Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment

    Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice

    2016-04-01

    Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling

  11. Near Source 2007 Peru Tsunami Runup Observations and Modeling

    Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Kalligeris, N.; Broncano, P.; Ortega, E.

    2008-12-01

    On 15 August 2007 an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.0 centered off the coast of central Peru, generated a tsunami with locally focused runup heights of up to 10 m. A reconnaissance team was deployed two weeks after the event and investigated the tsunami effects at 51 sites. Three tsunami fatalities were reported south of the Paracas Peninsula in a sparsely populated desert area where the largest tsunami runup heights and massive inundation distances up to 2 km were measured. Numerical modeling of the earthquake source and tsunami suggest that a region of high slip near the coastline was primarily responsible for the extreme runup heights. The town of Pisco was spared by the Paracas Peninsula, which blocked tsunami waves from propagating northward from the high slip region. As with all near field tsunamis, the waves struck within minutes of the massive ground shaking. Spontaneous evacuations coordinated by the Peruvian Coast Guard minimized the fatalities and illustrate the importance of community-based education and awareness programs. The residents of the fishing village Lagunilla were unaware of the tsunami hazard after an earthquake and did not evacuate, which resulted in 3 fatalities. Despite the relatively benign tsunami effects at Pisco from this event, the tsunami hazard for this city (and its liquefied natural gas terminal) cannot be underestimated. Between 1687 and 1868, the city of Pisco was destroyed 4 times by tsunami waves. Since then, two events (1974 and 2007) have resulted in partial inundation and moderate damage. The fact that potentially devastating tsunami runup heights were observed immediately south of the peninsula only serves to underscore this point.

  12. Extended nonnegative tensor factorisation models for musical sound source separation.

    FitzGerald, Derry; Cranitch, Matt; Coyle, Eugene

    2008-01-01

    Recently, shift-invariant tensor factorisation algorithms have been proposed for the purposes of sound source separation of pitched musical instruments. However, in practice, existing algorithms require the use of log-frequency spectrograms to allow shift invariance in frequency which causes problems when attempting to resynthesise the separated sources. Further, it is difficult to impose harmonicity constraints on the recovered basis functions. This paper proposes a new additive synthesis-based approach which allows the use of linear-frequency spectrograms as well as imposing strict harmonic constraints, resulting in an improved model. Further, these additional constraints allow the addition of a source filter model to the factorisation framework, and an extended model which is capable of separating mixtures of pitched and percussive instruments simultaneously.

  13. Extended Nonnegative Tensor Factorisation Models for Musical Sound Source Separation

    Derry FitzGerald

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, shift-invariant tensor factorisation algorithms have been proposed for the purposes of sound source separation of pitched musical instruments. However, in practice, existing algorithms require the use of log-frequency spectrograms to allow shift invariance in frequency which causes problems when attempting to resynthesise the separated sources. Further, it is difficult to impose harmonicity constraints on the recovered basis functions. This paper proposes a new additive synthesis-based approach which allows the use of linear-frequency spectrograms as well as imposing strict harmonic constraints, resulting in an improved model. Further, these additional constraints allow the addition of a source filter model to the factorisation framework, and an extended model which is capable of separating mixtures of pitched and percussive instruments simultaneously.

  14. Monitoring alert and drowsy states by modeling EEG source nonstationarity

    Hsu, Sheng-Hsiou; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

    2017-10-01

    Objective. As a human brain performs various cognitive functions within ever-changing environments, states of the brain characterized by recorded brain activities such as electroencephalogram (EEG) are inevitably nonstationary. The challenges of analyzing the nonstationary EEG signals include finding neurocognitive sources that underlie different brain states and using EEG data to quantitatively assess the state changes. Approach. This study hypothesizes that brain activities under different states, e.g. levels of alertness, can be modeled as distinct compositions of statistically independent sources using independent component analysis (ICA). This study presents a framework to quantitatively assess the EEG source nonstationarity and estimate levels of alertness. The framework was tested against EEG data collected from 10 subjects performing a sustained-attention task in a driving simulator. Main results. Empirical results illustrate that EEG signals under alert versus drowsy states, indexed by reaction speeds to driving challenges, can be characterized by distinct ICA models. By quantifying the goodness-of-fit of each ICA model to the EEG data using the model deviation index (MDI), we found that MDIs were significantly correlated with the reaction speeds (r  =  -0.390 with alertness models and r  =  0.449 with drowsiness models) and the opposite correlations indicated that the two models accounted for sources in the alert and drowsy states, respectively. Based on the observed source nonstationarity, this study also proposes an online framework using a subject-specific ICA model trained with an initial (alert) state to track the level of alertness. For classification of alert against drowsy states, the proposed online framework achieved an averaged area-under-curve of 0.745 and compared favorably with a classic power-based approach. Significance. This ICA-based framework provides a new way to study changes of brain states and can be applied to

  15. Estimated population exposure from nuclear power production and other radiation sources

    Pochin, E.E.

    1976-01-01

    Estimates are given of the total radiation dose from all forms of ionizing radiation resulting from nuclear power reduction. A power consumption of 1kW per head of population, derived entirely from nuclear energy, would increase the average radiation exposure of the whole population from 100mrem per year from natural sources (plus about 40mrem per year from medical procedures and other artificial causes) by about 6mrem per year. The genetically signifificant component of this increase would be about 4mrem per year. Available estimates of harm from radiation would indicate that this would give a risk per year per million of population of about 1 fatal induced malignancy, about the same number of malignancies fully treatable by operation, and, after many generations, about the same number of inherited defects, of greater or less severity, per year. Accidental injuries, particularly in constructional and mining work, would cause an estimated 1 fatality and 50 other accidents annually. Indications are given of the number of fatalities and accidents involved in equal power production by alternative methods, and of the value and limitations of such numerical comparisons in reaching decisions on the development of future power programmes

  16. Drinking water intake and source patterns within a US-Mexico border population.

    Regnier, Adam; Gurian, Patrick; Mena, Kristina D

    2015-01-01

    This study was undertaken to identify water intake and source patterns among a population that resides in a hot, arid region on the US-Mexico border. A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted among households in the neighbouring cities of El Paso, TX, USA and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico to obtain data on the quantity and source of water consumed. The study was also designed to identify factors that impact water consumption patterns, including gender, demographics, socio-economic status, cultural characteristics, health status, types of occupations and residences, available water sources and outdoor temperature, among many others. Of all factors studied, outdoor air temperature was found to have the strongest impact upon water intake quantity. Specifically, among the survey participants, when the outdoor air temperature exceeded 90 °F, water consumption increased by 28 %. Additionally, it was found that participants in this region consumed approximately 50 % more water than the values reported in previous studies.

  17. Modeling the contribution of point sources and non-point sources to Thachin River water pollution.

    Schaffner, Monika; Bader, Hans-Peter; Scheidegger, Ruth

    2009-08-15

    Major rivers in developing and emerging countries suffer increasingly of severe degradation of water quality. The current study uses a mathematical Material Flow Analysis (MMFA) as a complementary approach to address the degradation of river water quality due to nutrient pollution in the Thachin River Basin in Central Thailand. This paper gives an overview of the origins and flow paths of the various point- and non-point pollution sources in the Thachin River Basin (in terms of nitrogen and phosphorus) and quantifies their relative importance within the system. The key parameters influencing the main nutrient flows are determined and possible mitigation measures discussed. The results show that aquaculture (as a point source) and rice farming (as a non-point source) are the key nutrient sources in the Thachin River Basin. Other point sources such as pig farms, households and industries, which were previously cited as the most relevant pollution sources in terms of organic pollution, play less significant roles in comparison. This order of importance shifts when considering the model results for the provincial level. Crosschecks with secondary data and field studies confirm the plausibility of our simulations. Specific nutrient loads for the pollution sources are derived; these can be used for a first broad quantification of nutrient pollution in comparable river basins. Based on an identification of the sensitive model parameters, possible mitigation scenarios are determined and their potential to reduce the nutrient load evaluated. A comparison of simulated nutrient loads with measured nutrient concentrations shows that nutrient retention in the river system may be significant. Sedimentation in the slow flowing surface water network as well as nitrogen emission to the air from the warm oxygen deficient waters are certainly partly responsible, but also wetlands along the river banks could play an important role as nutrient sinks.

  18. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  19. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  20. Low-level radioactive waste performance assessments: Source term modeling

    Icenhour, A.S.; Godbee, H.W.; Miller, L.F.

    1995-01-01

    Low-level radioactive wastes (LLW) generated by government and commercial operations need to be isolated from the environment for at least 300 to 500 yr. Most existing sites for the storage or disposal of LLW employ the shallow-land burial approach. However, the U.S. Department of Energy currently emphasizes the use of engineered systems (e.g., packaging, concrete and metal barriers, and water collection systems). Future commercial LLW disposal sites may include such systems to mitigate radionuclide transport through the biosphere. Performance assessments must be conducted for LUW disposal facilities. These studies include comprehensive evaluations of radionuclide migration from the waste package, through the vadose zone, and within the water table. Atmospheric transport mechanisms are also studied. Figure I illustrates the performance assessment process. Estimates of the release of radionuclides from the waste packages (i.e., source terms) are used for subsequent hydrogeologic calculations required by a performance assessment. Computer models are typically used to describe the complex interactions of water with LLW and to determine the transport of radionuclides. Several commonly used computer programs for evaluating source terms include GWSCREEN, BLT (Breach-Leach-Transport), DUST (Disposal Unit Source Term), BARRIER (Ref. 5), as well as SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 (which are used in this study). The SOURCE1 and SOURCE2 codes were prepared by Rogers and Associates Engineering Corporation for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SOURCE1 is designed for tumulus-type facilities, and SOURCE2 is tailored for silo, well-in-silo, and trench-type disposal facilities. This paper focuses on the source term for ORNL disposal facilities, and it describes improved computational methods for determining radionuclide transport from waste packages

  1. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes

  2. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  3. Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

    -mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

  4. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  5. Model-Based Least Squares Reconstruction of Coded Source Neutron Radiographs: Integrating the ORNL HFIR CG1D Source Model

    Santos-Villalobos, Hector J [ORNL; Gregor, Jens [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Bingham, Philip R [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    At the present, neutron sources cannot be fabricated small and powerful enough in order to achieve high resolution radiography while maintaining an adequate flux. One solution is to employ computational imaging techniques such as a Magnified Coded Source Imaging (CSI) system. A coded-mask is placed between the neutron source and the object. The system resolution is increased by reducing the size of the mask holes and the flux is increased by increasing the size of the coded-mask and/or the number of holes. One limitation of such system is that the resolution of current state-of-the-art scintillator-based detectors caps around 50um. To overcome this challenge, the coded-mask and object are magnified by making the distance from the coded-mask to the object much smaller than the distance from object to detector. In previous work, we have shown via synthetic experiments that our least squares method outperforms other methods in image quality and reconstruction precision because of the modeling of the CSI system components. However, the validation experiments were limited to simplistic neutron sources. In this work, we aim to model the flux distribution of a real neutron source and incorporate such a model in our least squares computational system. We provide a full description of the methodology used to characterize the neutron source and validate the method with synthetic experiments.

  6. Topographic filtering simulation model for sediment source apportionment

    Cho, Se Jong; Wilcock, Peter; Hobbs, Benjamin

    2018-05-01

    We propose a Topographic Filtering simulation model (Topofilter) that can be used to identify those locations that are likely to contribute most of the sediment load delivered from a watershed. The reduced complexity model links spatially distributed estimates of annual soil erosion, high-resolution topography, and observed sediment loading to determine the distribution of sediment delivery ratio across a watershed. The model uses two simple two-parameter topographic transfer functions based on the distance and change in elevation from upland sources to the nearest stream channel and then down the stream network. The approach does not attempt to find a single best-calibrated solution of sediment delivery, but uses a model conditioning approach to develop a large number of possible solutions. For each model run, locations that contribute to 90% of the sediment loading are identified and those locations that appear in this set in most of the 10,000 model runs are identified as the sources that are most likely to contribute to most of the sediment delivered to the watershed outlet. Because the underlying model is quite simple and strongly anchored by reliable information on soil erosion, topography, and sediment load, we believe that the ensemble of simulation outputs provides a useful basis for identifying the dominant sediment sources in the watershed.

  7. Selection of models to calculate the LLW source term

    Sullivan, T.M.

    1991-10-01

    Performance assessment of a LLW disposal facility begins with an estimation of the rate at which radionuclides migrate out of the facility (i.e., the source term). The focus of this work is to develop a methodology for calculating the source term. In general, the source term is influenced by the radionuclide inventory, the wasteforms and containers used to dispose of the inventory, and the physical processes that lead to release from the facility (fluid flow, container degradation, wasteform leaching, and radionuclide transport). In turn, many of these physical processes are influenced by the design of the disposal facility (e.g., infiltration of water). The complexity of the problem and the absence of appropriate data prevent development of an entirely mechanistic representation of radionuclide release from a disposal facility. Typically, a number of assumptions, based on knowledge of the disposal system, are used to simplify the problem. This document provides a brief overview of disposal practices and reviews existing source term models as background for selecting appropriate models for estimating the source term. The selection rationale and the mathematical details of the models are presented. Finally, guidance is presented for combining the inventory data with appropriate mechanisms describing release from the disposal facility. 44 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  8. Open source Modeling and optimization tools for Planning

    Peles, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    Open source modeling and optimization tools for planning The existing tools and software used for planning and analysis in California are either expensive, difficult to use, or not generally accessible to a large number of participants. These limitations restrict the availability of participants for larger scale energy and grid studies in the state. The proposed initiative would build upon federal and state investments in open source software, and create and improve open source tools for use in the state planning and analysis activities. Computational analysis and simulation frameworks in development at national labs and universities can be brought forward to complement existing tools. An open source platform would provide a path for novel techniques and strategies to be brought into the larger community and reviewed by a broad set of stakeholders.

  9. The Growth of open source: A look at how companies are utilizing open source software in their business models

    Feare, David

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines how open source software is being incorporated into the business models of companies in the software industry. The goal is to answer the question of whether the open source model can help sustain economic growth. While some companies are able to maintain a "pure" open source approach with their business model, the reality is that most companies are relying on proprietary add-on value in order to generate revenue because open source itself is simply not big business. Ultima...

  10. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  11. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  12. Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

    Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

    2017-10-01

    An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  13. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  14. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  15. Mitigating Spreadsheet Model Risk with Python Open Source Infrastructure

    Beavers, Oliver

    2018-01-01

    Across an aggregation of EuSpRIG presentation papers, two maxims hold true: spreadsheets models are akin to software, yet spreadsheet developers are not software engineers. As such, the lack of traditional software engineering tools and protocols invites a higher rate of error in the end result. This paper lays ground work for spreadsheet modelling professionals to develop reproducible audit tools using freely available, open source packages built with the Python programming language, enablin...

  16. OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System

    Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Strachan, Neil; Heaps, Charles; Huntington, Hillard; Kypreos, Socrates; Hughes, Alison; Silveira, Semida; DeCarolis, Joe; Bazillian, Morgan; Roehrl, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the design and development of the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS). It describes the model's formulation in terms of a 'plain English' description, algebraic formulation, implementation-in terms of its full source code, as well as a detailed description of the model inputs, parameters, and outputs. A key feature of the OSeMOSYS implementation is that it is contained in less than five pages of documented, easily accessible code. Other existing energy system models that do not have this emphasis on compactness and openness makes the barrier to entry by new users much higher, as well as making the addition of innovative new functionality very difficult. The paper begins by describing the rationale for the development of OSeMOSYS and its structure. The current preliminary implementation of the model is then demonstrated for a discrete example. Next, we explain how new development efforts will build on the existing OSeMOSYS codebase. The paper closes with thoughts regarding the organization of the OSeMOSYS community, associated capacity development efforts, and linkages to other open source efforts including adding functionality to the LEAP model. - Highlights: → OSeMOSYS is a new free and open source energy systems. → This model is written in a simple, open, flexible and transparent manner to support teaching. → OSeMOSYS is based on free software and optimizes using a free solver. → This model replicates the results of many popular tools, such as MARKAL. → A link between OSeMOSYS and LEAP has been developed.

  17. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to

  19. MODEL OF A PERSONWALKING AS A STRUCTURE BORNE SOUND SOURCE

    Lievens, Matthias; Brunskog, Jonas

    2007-01-01

    has to be considered and the contact history must be integrated in the model. This is complicated by the fact that nonlinearities occur at different stages in the system either on the source or receiver side. ot only lightweight structures but also soft floor coverings would benefit from an accurate...

  20. Modeling Noise Sources and Propagation in External Gear Pumps

    Sangbeom Woo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available As a key component in power transfer, positive displacement machines often represent the major source of noise in hydraulic systems. Thus, investigation into the sources of noise and discovering strategies to reduce noise is a key part of improving the performance of current hydraulic systems, as well as applying fluid power systems to a wider range of applications. The present work aims at developing modeling techniques on the topic of noise generation caused by external gear pumps for high pressure applications, which can be useful and effective in investigating the interaction between noise sources and radiated noise and establishing the design guide for a quiet pump. In particular, this study classifies the internal noise sources into four types of effective load functions and, in the proposed model, these load functions are applied to the corresponding areas of the pump case in a realistic way. Vibration and sound radiation can then be predicted using a combined finite element and boundary element vibro-acoustic model. The radiated sound power and sound pressure for the different operating conditions are presented as the main outcomes of the acoustic model. The noise prediction was validated through comparison with the experimentally measured sound power levels.

  1. Modeling of an autonomous microgrid for renewable energy sources integration

    Serban, I.; Teodorescu, Remus; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2009-01-01

    The frequency stability analysis in an autonomous microgrid (MG) with renewable energy sources (RES) is a continuously studied issue. This paper presents an original method for modeling an autonomous MG with a battery energy storage system (BESS) and a wind power plant (WPP), with the purpose...

  2. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  3. Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    Byler, Nell; Dalcanton, Julianne J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Conroy, Charlie; Johnson, Benjamin D., E-mail: ebyler@astro.washington.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

  4. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  5. Testing for multiple invasion routes and source populations for the invasive brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on Guam: implications for pest management

    Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Wood, Dustin A.; Stanford, James W.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2014-01-01

    The brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) population on the Pacific island of Guam has reached iconic status as one of the most destructive invasive species of modern times, yet no published works have used genetic data to identify a source population. We used DNA sequence data from multiple genetic markers and coalescent-based phylogenetic methods to place the Guam population within the broader phylogeographic context of B. irregularis across its native range and tested whether patterns of genetic variation on the island are consistent with one or multiple introductions from different source populations. We also modeled a series of demographic scenarios that differed in the effective size and duration of a population bottleneck immediately following the invasion on Guam, and measured the fit of these simulations to the observed data using approximate Bayesian computation. Our results exclude the possibility of serial introductions from different source populations, and instead verify a single origin from the Admiralty Archipelago off the north coast of Papua New Guinea. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis thatB. irregularis was accidentally transported to Guam during military relocation efforts at the end of World War II. Demographic model comparisons suggest that multiple snakes were transported to Guam from the source locality, but that fewer than 10 individuals could be responsible for establishing the population. Our results also provide evidence that low genetic diversity stemming from the founder event has not been a hindrance to the ecological success of B. irregularis on Guam, and at the same time offers a unique ‘genetic opening’ to manage snake density using classical biological approaches.

  6. Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation From Emissions of Combustion Sources

    Jathar, Shantanu Hemant

    Atmospheric aerosols exert a large influence on the Earth's climate and cause adverse public health effects, reduced visibility and material degradation. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), defined as the aerosol mass arising from the oxidation products of gas-phase organic species, accounts for a significant fraction of the submicron atmospheric aerosol mass. Yet, there are large uncertainties surrounding the sources, atmospheric evolution and properties of SOA. This thesis combines laboratory experiments, extensive data analysis and global modeling to investigate the contribution of semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (SVOC and IVOC) from combustion sources to SOA formation. The goals are to quantify the contribution of these emissions to ambient PM and to evaluate and improve models to simulate its formation. To create a database for model development and evaluation, a series of smog chamber experiments were conducted on evaporated fuel, which served as surrogates for real-world combustion emissions. Diesel formed the most SOA followed by conventional jet fuel / jet fuel derived from natural gas, gasoline and jet fuel derived from coal. The variability in SOA formation from actual combustion emissions can be partially explained by the composition of the fuel. Several models were developed and tested along with existing models using SOA data from smog chamber experiments conducted using evaporated fuel (this work, gasoline, fischertropschs, jet fuel, diesels) and published data on dilute combustion emissions (aircraft, on- and off-road gasoline, on- and off-road diesel, wood burning, biomass burning). For all of the SOA data, existing models under-predicted SOA formation if SVOC/IVOC were not included. For the evaporated fuel experiments, when SVOC/IVOC were included predictions using the existing SOA model were brought to within a factor of two of measurements with minor adjustments to model parameterizations. Further, a volatility

  7. Multiple bifurcations and periodic 'bubbling' in a delay population model

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the flip bifurcation and periodic doubling bifurcations of a discrete population model without delay influence is firstly studied and the phenomenon of Feigenbaum's cascade of periodic doublings is also observed. Secondly, we explored the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the delay population model (two-dimension discrete dynamical systems) and the unique stable closed invariant curve which bifurcates from the nontrivial fixed point. Finally, a computer-assisted study for the delay population model is also delved into. Our computer simulation shows that the introduction of delay effect in a nonlinear difference equation derived from the logistic map leads to much richer dynamic behavior, such as stable node → stable focus → an lower-dimensional closed invariant curve (quasi-periodic solution, limit cycle) or/and stable periodic solutions → chaotic attractor by cascading bubbles (the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling) and the sudden change between two different attractors, etc

  8. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  9. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  10. Developing seismogenic source models based on geologic fault data

    Haller, Kathleen M.; Basili, Roberto

    2011-01-01

    Calculating seismic hazard usually requires input that includes seismicity associated with known faults, historical earthquake catalogs, geodesy, and models of ground shaking. This paper will address the input generally derived from geologic studies that augment the short historical catalog to predict ground shaking at time scales of tens, hundreds, or thousands of years (e.g., SSHAC 1997). A seismogenic source model, terminology we adopt here for a fault source model, includes explicit three-dimensional faults deemed capable of generating ground motions of engineering significance within a specified time frame of interest. In tectonically active regions of the world, such as near plate boundaries, multiple seismic cycles span a few hundred to a few thousand years. In contrast, in less active regions hundreds of kilometers from the nearest plate boundary, seismic cycles generally are thousands to tens of thousands of years long. Therefore, one should include sources having both longer recurrence intervals and possibly older times of most recent rupture in less active regions of the world rather than restricting the model to include only Holocene faults (i.e., those with evidence of large-magnitude earthquakes in the past 11,500 years) as is the practice in tectonically active regions with high deformation rates. During the past 15 years, our institutions independently developed databases to characterize seismogenic sources based on geologic data at a national scale. Our goal here is to compare the content of these two publicly available seismogenic source models compiled for the primary purpose of supporting seismic hazard calculations by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); hereinafter we refer to the two seismogenic source models as INGV and USGS, respectively. This comparison is timely because new initiatives are emerging to characterize seismogenic sources at the continental scale (e.g., SHARE in the

  11. Race of source effects in the elaboration likelihood model.

    White, P H; Harkins, S G

    1994-11-01

    In a series of experiments, we investigated the effect of race of source on persuasive communications in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (R.E. Petty & J.T. Cacioppo, 1981, 1986). In Experiment 1, we found no evidence that White participants responded to a Black source as a simple negative cue. Experiment 2 suggested the possibility that exposure to a Black source led to low-involvement message processing. In Experiments 3 and 4, a distraction paradigm was used to test this possibility, and it was found that participants under low involvement were highly motivated to process a message presented by a Black source. In Experiment 5, we found that attitudes toward the source's ethnic group, rather than violations of expectancies, accounted for this processing effect. Taken together, the results of these experiments are consistent with S.L. Gaertner and J.F. Dovidio's (1986) theory of aversive racism, which suggests that Whites, because of a combination of egalitarian values and underlying negative racial attitudes, are very concerned about not appearing unfavorable toward Blacks, leading them to be highly motivated to process messages presented by a source from this group.

  12. How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis

    Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Unlike mixtures consisting solely of non-Gaussian sources, mixtures including two or more Gaussian components cannot be separated using standard independent components analysis methods that are based on higher order statistics and independent observations. The mixed Independent Components Analysis/Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though computationally intensive alternative for model selection. Application of the algorithm is illustrated using Fisher's iris data set and Howells' craniometric data set. Mixed ICA/PCA is of potential interest in any field of scientific investigation where the authenticity of blindly separated non-Gaussian sources might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian. PMID:25811988

  13. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  14. Absorptivity Measurements and Heat Source Modeling to Simulate Laser Cladding

    Wirth, Florian; Eisenbarth, Daniel; Wegener, Konrad

    The laser cladding process gains importance, as it does not only allow the application of surface coatings, but also additive manufacturing of three-dimensional parts. In both cases, process simulation can contribute to process optimization. Heat source modeling is one of the main issues for an accurate model and simulation of the laser cladding process. While the laser beam intensity distribution is readily known, the other two main effects on the process' heat input are non-trivial. Namely the measurement of the absorptivity of the applied materials as well as the powder attenuation. Therefore, calorimetry measurements were carried out. The measurement method and the measurement results for laser cladding of Stellite 6 on structural steel S 235 and for the processing of Inconel 625 are presented both using a CO2 laser as well as a high power diode laser (HPDL). Additionally, a heat source model is deduced.

  15. Diffusion theory model for optimization calculations of cold neutron sources

    Azmy, Y.Y.

    1987-01-01

    Cold neutron sources are becoming increasingly important and common experimental facilities made available at many research reactors around the world due to the high utility of cold neutrons in scattering experiments. The authors describe a simple two-group diffusion model of an infinite slab LD 2 cold source. The simplicity of the model permits to obtain an analytical solution from which one can deduce the reason for the optimum thickness based solely on diffusion-type phenomena. Also, a second more sophisticated model is described and the results compared to a deterministic transport calculation. The good (particularly qualitative) agreement between the results suggests that diffusion theory methods can be used in parametric and optimization studies to avoid the generally more expensive transport calculations

  16. CHARACTERIZING THE POPULATION OF BRIGHT INFRARED SOURCES IN THE SMALL MAGELLANIC CLOUD

    Kraemer, K. E.; Sloan, G. C.; Wood, P. R.; Jones, O. C.; Egan, M. P.

    2017-01-01

    We have used the Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope to observe stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) selected from the Point Source Catalog of the Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX). We concentrate on the dust properties of the oxygen-rich evolved stars. The dust composition has smaller contributions from alumina compared to the Galaxy. This difference may arise from the lower metallicity in the SMC, but it could be a selection effect, as the SMC sample includes more stars that are brighter and thus more massive. The distribution of the SMC stars along the silicate sequence looks more like the Galactic sample of red supergiants than asymptotic giant branch stars (AGBs). While many of the SMC stars are definitively on the AGB, several also show evidence of hot bottom burning. Three of the supergiants show PAH emission at 11.3 μ m. Two other sources show mixed chemistry, with both carbon-rich and oxygen-rich spectral features. One, MSX SMC 134, may be the first confirmed silicate/carbon star in the SMC. The other, MSX SMC 049, is a candidate post-AGB star. MSX SMC 145, previously considered a candidate OH/IR star, is actually an AGB star with a background galaxy at z  = 0.16 along the same line of sight. We consider the overall characteristics of all the MSX sources, the most infrared-bright objects in the SMC, in light of the higher sensitivity and resolution of Spitzer , and compare them with the object types expected from the original selection criteria. This population represents what will be seen in more distant galaxies by the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ). Color–color diagrams generated from the IRS spectra and the mid-infrared filters on JWST show how one can separate evolved stars from young stellar objects (YSOs) and distinguish among different classes of YSOs.

  17. CHARACTERIZING THE POPULATION OF BRIGHT INFRARED SOURCES IN THE SMALL MAGELLANIC CLOUD

    Kraemer, K. E. [Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 (United States); Sloan, G. C. [Center for Astrophysics and Planetary Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-6801 (United States); Wood, P. R. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Australian National University, Cotter Road, Weston Creek ACT 2611 (Australia); Jones, O. C. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Egan, M. P., E-mail: kathleen.kraemer@bc.edu, E-mail: sloan@astro.cornell.edu, E-mail: wood@mso.anu.edu.au, E-mail: michael.p.egan@nga.mil [National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, 7500 GEOINT Drive, Springfield, VA 22150 (United States)

    2017-01-10

    We have used the Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope to observe stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) selected from the Point Source Catalog of the Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX). We concentrate on the dust properties of the oxygen-rich evolved stars. The dust composition has smaller contributions from alumina compared to the Galaxy. This difference may arise from the lower metallicity in the SMC, but it could be a selection effect, as the SMC sample includes more stars that are brighter and thus more massive. The distribution of the SMC stars along the silicate sequence looks more like the Galactic sample of red supergiants than asymptotic giant branch stars (AGBs). While many of the SMC stars are definitively on the AGB, several also show evidence of hot bottom burning. Three of the supergiants show PAH emission at 11.3 μ m. Two other sources show mixed chemistry, with both carbon-rich and oxygen-rich spectral features. One, MSX SMC 134, may be the first confirmed silicate/carbon star in the SMC. The other, MSX SMC 049, is a candidate post-AGB star. MSX SMC 145, previously considered a candidate OH/IR star, is actually an AGB star with a background galaxy at z  = 0.16 along the same line of sight. We consider the overall characteristics of all the MSX sources, the most infrared-bright objects in the SMC, in light of the higher sensitivity and resolution of Spitzer , and compare them with the object types expected from the original selection criteria. This population represents what will be seen in more distant galaxies by the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ). Color–color diagrams generated from the IRS spectra and the mid-infrared filters on JWST show how one can separate evolved stars from young stellar objects (YSOs) and distinguish among different classes of YSOs.

  18. Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons

    Arvela, H

    1995-09-01

    The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.).

  19. Residential radon in Finland: sources, variation, modelling and dose comparisons

    Arvela, H.

    1995-09-01

    The study deals with sources of indoor radon in Finland, seasonal variations in radon concentration, the effect of house construction and ventilation and also with the radiation dose from indoor radon and terrestrial gamma radiation. The results are based on radon measurements in approximately 4000 dwellings and on air exchange measurements in 250 dwellings as well as on model calculations. The results confirm that convective soil air flow is by far the most important source of indoor radon in Finnish low-rise residential housing. (97 refs., 61 figs., 30 tabs.)

  20. Dynamic modeling of the advanced neutron source reactor

    March-Leuba, J.; Ibn-Khayat, M.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary description and some applications of a computer model that has been developed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the advanced neutron source (ANS) reactor. The ANS dynamic model is coded in the advanced continuous simulation language (ACSL), and it represents the reactor core, vessel, primary cooling system, and secondary cooling systems. The use of a simple dynamic model in the early stages of the reactor design has proven very valuable not only in the development of the control and plant protection system but also of components such as pumps and heat exchangers that are usually sized based on steady-state calculations

  1. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  2. Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux.

    Giles, John R; Plowright, Raina K; Eby, Peggy; Peel, Alison J; McCallum, Hamish

    2016-10-01

    Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology

  3. Source-sink estimates of genetic introgression show influence of hatchery strays on wild chum salmon populations in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

    James R Jasper

    Full Text Available The extent to which stray, hatchery-reared salmon affect wild populations is much debated. Although experiments show that artificial breeding and culture influence the genetics of hatchery salmon, little is known about the interaction between hatchery and wild salmon in a natural setting. Here, we estimated historical and contemporary genetic population structures of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta in Prince William Sound (PWS, Alaska, with 135 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers. Historical population structure was inferred from the analysis of DNA from fish scales, which had been archived since the late 1960's for several populations in PWS. Parallel analyses with microsatellites and a test based on Hardy-Weinberg proportions showed that about 50% of the fish-scale DNA was cross-contaminated with DNA from other fish. These samples were removed from the analysis. We used a novel application of the classical source-sink model to compare SNP allele frequencies in these archived fish-scales (1964-1982 with frequencies in contemporary samples (2008-2010 and found a temporal shift toward hatchery allele frequencies in some wild populations. Other populations showed markedly less introgression, despite moderate amounts of hatchery straying. The extent of introgression may reflect similarities in spawning time and life-history traits between hatchery and wild fish, or the degree that hybrids return to a natal spawning area. The source-sink model is a powerful means of detecting low levels of introgression over several generations.

  4. ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

    2014-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  5. An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

    Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

    2000-08-01

    Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

  6. Numerical model of electron cyclotron resonance ion source

    V. Mironov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features of the electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS operation are accurately reproduced with a numerical code. The code uses the particle-in-cell technique to model the dynamics of ions in ECRIS plasma. It is shown that a gas dynamical ion confinement mechanism is sufficient to provide the ion production rates in ECRIS close to the experimentally observed values. Extracted ion currents are calculated and compared to the experiment for a few sources. Changes in the simulated extracted ion currents are obtained with varying the gas flow into the source chamber and the microwave power. Empirical scaling laws for ECRIS design are studied and the underlying physical effects are discussed.

  7. Mathematical modelling of electricity market with renewable energy sources

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2007-01-01

    The paper addresses the electricity market with conventional energy sources on fossil fuel and non-conventional renewable energy sources (RESs) with stochastic operating conditions. A mathematical model of long-run (accounting for development of generation capacities) equilibrium in the market is constructed. The problem of determining optimal parameters providing the maximum social criterion of efficiency is also formulated. The calculations performed have shown that the adequate choice of price cap, environmental tax, subsidies to RESs and consumption tax make it possible to take into account external effects (environmental damage) and to create incentives for investors to construct conventional and renewable energy sources in an optimal (from the society view point) mix. (author)

  8. A FRAMEWORK FOR AN OPEN SOURCE GEOSPATIAL CERTIFICATION MODEL

    T. U. R. Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The geospatial industry is forecasted to have an enormous growth in the forthcoming years and an extended need for well-educated workforce. Hence ongoing education and training play an important role in the professional life. Parallel, in the geospatial and IT arena as well in the political discussion and legislation Open Source solutions, open data proliferation, and the use of open standards have an increasing significance. Based on the Memorandum of Understanding between International Cartographic Association, OSGeo Foundation, and ISPRS this development led to the implementation of the ICA-OSGeo-Lab imitative with its mission “Making geospatial education and opportunities accessible to all”. Discussions in this initiative and the growth and maturity of geospatial Open Source software initiated the idea to develop a framework for a worldwide applicable Open Source certification approach. Generic and geospatial certification approaches are already offered by numerous organisations, i.e., GIS Certification Institute, GeoAcademy, ASPRS, and software vendors, i. e., Esri, Oracle, and RedHat. They focus different fields of expertise and have different levels and ways of examination which are offered for a wide range of fees. The development of the certification framework presented here is based on the analysis of diverse bodies of knowledge concepts, i.e., NCGIA Core Curriculum, URISA Body Of Knowledge, USGIF Essential Body Of Knowledge, the “Geographic Information: Need to Know", currently under development, and the Geospatial Technology Competency Model (GTCM. The latter provides a US American oriented list of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required of workers in the geospatial technology industry and influenced essentially the framework of certification. In addition to the theoretical analysis of existing resources the geospatial community was integrated twofold. An online survey about the relevance of Open Source was performed and

  9. a Framework for AN Open Source Geospatial Certification Model

    Khan, T. U. R.; Davis, P.; Behr, F.-J.

    2016-06-01

    The geospatial industry is forecasted to have an enormous growth in the forthcoming years and an extended need for well-educated workforce. Hence ongoing education and training play an important role in the professional life. Parallel, in the geospatial and IT arena as well in the political discussion and legislation Open Source solutions, open data proliferation, and the use of open standards have an increasing significance. Based on the Memorandum of Understanding between International Cartographic Association, OSGeo Foundation, and ISPRS this development led to the implementation of the ICA-OSGeo-Lab imitative with its mission "Making geospatial education and opportunities accessible to all". Discussions in this initiative and the growth and maturity of geospatial Open Source software initiated the idea to develop a framework for a worldwide applicable Open Source certification approach. Generic and geospatial certification approaches are already offered by numerous organisations, i.e., GIS Certification Institute, GeoAcademy, ASPRS, and software vendors, i. e., Esri, Oracle, and RedHat. They focus different fields of expertise and have different levels and ways of examination which are offered for a wide range of fees. The development of the certification framework presented here is based on the analysis of diverse bodies of knowledge concepts, i.e., NCGIA Core Curriculum, URISA Body Of Knowledge, USGIF Essential Body Of Knowledge, the "Geographic Information: Need to Know", currently under development, and the Geospatial Technology Competency Model (GTCM). The latter provides a US American oriented list of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required of workers in the geospatial technology industry and influenced essentially the framework of certification. In addition to the theoretical analysis of existing resources the geospatial community was integrated twofold. An online survey about the relevance of Open Source was performed and evaluated with 105

  10. Learning with Admixture: Modeling, Optimization, and Applications in Population Genetics

    Cheng, Jade Yu

    2016-01-01

    the foundation for both CoalHMM and Ohana. Optimization modeling has been the main theme throughout my PhD, and it will continue to shape my work for the years to come. The algorithms and software I developed to study historical admixture and population evolution fall into a larger family of machine learning...... geneticists strive to establish working solutions to extract information from massive volumes of biological data. The steep increase in the quantity and quality of genomic data during the past decades provides a unique opportunity but also calls for new and improved algorithms and software to cope...... including population splits, effective population sizes, gene flow, etc. Since joining the CoalHMM development team in 2014, I have mainly contributed in two directions: 1) improving optimizations through heuristic-based evolutionary algorithms and 2) modeling of historical admixture events. Ohana, meaning...

  11. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  12. A probabilistic model for cell population phenotyping using HCS data.

    Edouard Pauwels

    Full Text Available High Content Screening (HCS platforms allow screening living cells under a wide range of experimental conditions and give access to a whole panel of cellular responses to a specific treatment. The outcome is a series of cell population images. Within these images, the heterogeneity of cellular response to the same treatment leads to a whole range of observed values for the recorded cellular features. Consequently, it is difficult to compare and interpret experiments. Moreover, the definition of phenotypic classes at a cell population level remains an open question, although this would ease experiments analyses. In the present work, we tackle these two questions. The input of the method is a series of cell population images for which segmentation and cellular phenotype classification has already been performed. We propose a probabilistic model to represent and later compare cell populations. The model is able to fully exploit the HCS-specific information: "dependence structure of population descriptors" and "within-population variability". The experiments we carried out illustrate how our model accounts for this specific information, as well as the fact that the model benefits from considering them. We underline that these features allow richer HCS data analysis than simpler methods based on single cellular feature values averaged over each well. We validate an HCS data analysis method based on control experiments. It accounts for HCS specificities that were not taken into account by previous methods but have a sound biological meaning. Biological validation of previously unknown outputs of the method constitutes a future line of work.

  13. Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-11-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

  14. Modeling a Hypothetical 170Tm Source for Brachytherapy Applications

    Enger, Shirin A.; D'Amours, Michel; Beaulieu, Luc

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To perform absorbed dose calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations for a hypothetical 170 Tm source and to investigate the influence of encapsulating material on the energy spectrum of the emitted electrons and photons. Methods: GEANT4 Monte Carlo code version 9.2 patch 2 was used to simulate the decay process of 170 Tm and to calculate the absorbed dose distribution using the GEANT4 Penelope physics models. A hypothetical 170 Tm source based on the Flexisource brachytherapy design with the active core set as a pure thulium cylinder (length 3.5 mm and diameter 0.6 mm) and different cylindrical source encapsulations (length 5 mm and thickness 0.125 mm) constructed of titanium, stainless-steel, gold, or platinum were simulated. The radial dose function for the line source approximation was calculated following the TG-43U1 formalism for the stainless-steel encapsulation. Results: For the titanium and stainless-steel encapsulation, 94% of the total bremsstrahlung is produced inside the core, 4.8 and 5.5% in titanium and stainless-steel capsules, respectively, and less than 1% in water. For the gold capsule, 85% is produced inside the core, 14.2% inside the gold capsule, and a negligible amount ( 170 Tm source is primarily a bremsstrahlung source, with the majority of bremsstrahlung photons being generated in the source core and experiencing little attenuation in the source encapsulation. Electrons are efficiently absorbed by the gold and platinum encapsulations. However, for the stainless-steel capsule (or other lower Z encapsulations) electrons will escape. The dose from these electrons is dominant over the photon dose in the first few millimeter but is not taken into account by current standard treatment planning systems. The total energy spectrum of photons emerging from the source depends on the encapsulation composition and results in mean photon energies well above 100 keV. This is higher than the main gamma-ray energy peak at 84 keV. Based on our

  15. A comprehensive assessment of mercury exposure in penguin populations throughout the Southern Hemisphere: Using trophic calculations to identify sources of population-level variation

    Brasso, Rebecka L.; Chiaradia, André; Polito, Michael J.; Raya Rey, Andrea; Emslie, Steven D.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Mercury concentrations documented for 10 species of penguins (26 breeding populations). • Mercury concentrations ⩽2.00 ppm in feathers from 18/26 penguin populations. • Trophic level calculations revealed source of population-level variation in mercury. • First documentation of geographic mercury ‘hotspots’ for penguin populations. - Abstract: The wide geographic distribution of penguins (Order Sphenisciformes) throughout the Southern Hemisphere provided a unique opportunity to use a single taxonomic group as biomonitors of mercury among geographically distinct marine ecosystems. Mercury concentrations were compared among ten species of penguins representing 26 geographically distinct breeding populations. Mercury concentrations were relatively low (⩽2.00 ppm) in feathers from 18/26 populations considered. Population-level differences in trophic level explained variation in mercury concentrations among Little, King, and Gentoo penguin populations. However, Southern Rockhopper and Magellanic penguins breeding on Staten Island, Tierra del Fuego, had the highest mercury concentrations relative to their conspecifics despite foraging at a lower trophic level. The concurrent use of stable isotope and mercury data allowed us to document penguin populations at the greatest risk of exposure to harmful concentrations of mercury as a result of foraging at a high trophic level or in geographic ‘hot spots’ of mercury availability

  16. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  17. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  18. Open Sourcing Social Change: Inside the Constellation Model

    Tonya Surman

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The constellation model was developed by and for the Canadian Partnership for Children's Health and the Environment. The model offers an innovative approach to organizing collaborative efforts in the social mission sector and shares various elements of the open source model. It emphasizes self-organizing and concrete action within a network of partner organizations working on a common issue. Constellations are self-organizing action teams that operate within the broader strategic vision of a partnership. These constellations are outwardly focused, placing their attention on creating value for those in the external environment rather than on the partnership itself. While serious effort is invested into core partnership governance and management, most of the energy is devoted to the decision making, resources and collaborative effort required to create social value. The constellations drive and define the partnership. The constellation model emerged from a deep understanding of the power of networks and peer production. Leadership rotates fluidly amongst partners, with each partner having the freedom to head up a constellation and to participate in constellations that carry out activities that are of more peripheral interest. The Internet provided the platform, the partner network enabled the expertise to align itself, and the goal of reducing chemical exposure in children kept the energy flowing. Building on seven years of experience, this article provides an overview of the constellation model, discusses the results from the CPCHE, and identifies similarities and differences between the constellation and open source models.

  19. Reproducibility and consistency of proteomic experiments on natural populations of a non-model aquatic insect.

    Hidalgo-Galiana, Amparo; Monge, Marta; Biron, David G; Canals, Francesc; Ribera, Ignacio; Cieslak, Alexandra

    2014-01-01

    Population proteomics has a great potential to address evolutionary and ecological questions, but its use in wild populations of non-model organisms is hampered by uncontrolled sources of variation. Here we compare the response to temperature extremes of two geographically distant populations of a diving beetle species (Agabus ramblae) using 2-D DIGE. After one week of acclimation in the laboratory under standard conditions, a third of the specimens of each population were placed at either 4 or 27°C for 12 h, with another third left as a control. We then compared the protein expression level of three replicated samples of 2-3 specimens for each treatment. Within each population, variation between replicated samples of the same treatment was always lower than variation between treatments, except for some control samples that retained a wider range of expression levels. The two populations had a similar response, without significant differences in the number of protein spots over- or under-expressed in the pairwise comparisons between treatments. We identified exemplary proteins among those differently expressed between treatments, which proved to be proteins known to be related to thermal response or stress. Overall, our results indicate that specimens collected in the wild are suitable for proteomic analyses, as the additional sources of variation were not enough to mask the consistency and reproducibility of the response to the temperature treatments.

  20. Model of the Sgr B2 radio source

    Gosachinskij, I.V.; Khersonskij, V.K.

    1981-01-01

    The dynamical model of the gas cloud around the radio source Sagittarius B2 is suggested. This model describes the kinematic features of the gas in this source: contraction of the core and rotation of the envelope. The stability of the cloud at the initial stage is supported by the turbulent motion of the gas, turbulence energy dissipates due to magnetic viscosity. This process is occurring more rapidly in the dense core and the core begins to collapse but the envelope remains stable. The parameters of the primary cloud and some parameters (mass, density and size) of the collapse are calculated. The conditions in the core at the moment of its fragmentation into masses of stellar order are established [ru

  1. Dynamic Properties of the Solow Model with Increasing or Decreasing Population and Time-to-Build Technology

    Luca Guerrini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with nonconstant population. Our analysis shows that the population dynamics may be a source of stability switches and Hopf bifurcations. The analytical results are obtained using the recent technique introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002 in the studying of delayed differential equations with delay-dependent coefficients in characteristic equation. Numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate the main dynamic features of the model.

  2. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Shi, Jiachun, E-mail: jcshi@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Wu, Laosheng, E-mail: laowu@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Jiang, Yonghai [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China)

    2013-10-01

    Nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L{sup −1}) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L{sup −1}). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L{sup −1} NO{sub 3}{sup −}. Four sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −} (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl{sup −}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}, HCO{sub 3}{sup −}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2−}, Ca{sup 2+}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Na{sup +}, dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ{sup 15}N–NO{sub 3}{sup −} and δ{sup 18}O–NO{sub 3}{sup −}). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO{sub 3}{sup −} to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −}, better

  3. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao; Shi, Jiachun; Wu, Laosheng; Jiang, Yonghai

    2013-01-01

    Nitrate (NO 3 − ) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO 3 − concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L −1 ) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L −1 ). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L −1 NO 3 − . Four sources of NO 3 − (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl − , NO 3 − , HCO 3 − , SO 4 2− , Ca 2+ , K + , Mg 2+ , Na + , dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ 15 N–NO 3 − and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO 3 − to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO 3 − , better agricultural management practices and sewage disposal programs can be implemented to sustain water quality in subtropical watersheds

  4. An architectural model for software reliability quantification: sources of data

    Smidts, C.; Sova, D.

    1999-01-01

    Software reliability assessment models in use today treat software as a monolithic block. An aversion towards 'atomic' models seems to exist. These models appear to add complexity to the modeling, to the data collection and seem intrinsically difficult to generalize. In 1997, we introduced an architecturally based software reliability model called FASRE. The model is based on an architecture derived from the requirements which captures both functional and nonfunctional requirements and on a generic classification of functions, attributes and failure modes. The model focuses on evaluation of failure mode probabilities and uses a Bayesian quantification framework. Failure mode probabilities of functions and attributes are propagated to the system level using fault trees. It can incorporate any type of prior information such as results of developers' testing, historical information on a specific functionality and its attributes, and, is ideally suited for reusable software. By building an architecture and deriving its potential failure modes, the model forces early appraisal and understanding of the weaknesses of the software, allows reliability analysis of the structure of the system, provides assessments at a functional level as well as at a systems' level. In order to quantify the probability of failure (or the probability of success) of a specific element of our architecture, data are needed. The term element of the architecture is used here in its broadest sense to mean a single failure mode or a higher level of abstraction such as a function. The paper surveys the potential sources of software reliability data available during software development. Next the mechanisms for incorporating these sources of relevant data to the FASRE model are identified

  5. Receptor models for source apportionment of remote aerosols in Brazil

    Artaxo Netto, P.E.

    1985-11-01

    The PIXE (particle induced X-ray emission), and PESA (proton elastic scattering analysis) method were used in conjunction with receptor models for source apportionment of remote aerosols in Brazil. The PIXE used in the determination of concentration for elements with Z >- 11, has a detection limit of about 1 ng/m 3 . The concentrations of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in the fine fraction of Amazon Basin aerosols was measured by PESA. We sampled in Jureia (SP), Fernando de Noronha, Arembepe (BA), Firminopolis (GO), Itaberai (GO) and Amazon Basin. For collecting the airbone particles we used cascade impactors, stacked filter units, and streaker samplers. Three receptor models were used: chemical mass balance, stepwise multiple regression analysis and principal factor analysis. The elemental and gravimetric concentrations were explained by the models within the experimental errors. Three sources of aerosol were quantitatively distinguished: marine aerosol, soil dust and aerosols related to forests. The emission of aerosols by vegetation is very clear for all the sampling sites. In Amazon Basin and Jureia it is the major source, responsible for 60 to 80% of airborne concentrations. (Author) [pt

  6. Mapping of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to models of population genetics and game theory

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the M -species stochastic Lotka-Volterra competition (SLVC) model and the M -allele Moran model of population genetics is explored via timescale separation arguments. When selection for species is weak and the population size is large but finite, precise conditions are determined for the stochastic dynamics of the SLVC model to be mappable to the neutral Moran model, the Moran model with frequency-independent selection, and the Moran model with frequency-dependent selection (equivalently a game-theoretic formulation of the Moran model). We demonstrate how these mappings can be used to calculate extinction probabilities and the times until a species' extinction in the SLVC model.

  7. A single-source photon source model of a linear accelerator for Monte Carlo dose calculation.

    Nwankwo, Obioma; Glatting, Gerhard; Wenz, Frederik; Fleckenstein, Jens

    2017-01-01

    To introduce a new method of deriving a virtual source model (VSM) of a linear accelerator photon beam from a phase space file (PSF) for Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation. A PSF of a 6 MV photon beam was generated by simulating the interactions of primary electrons with the relevant geometries of a Synergy linear accelerator (Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden) and recording the particles that reach a plane 16 cm downstream the electron source. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) for particle positions and energies were derived from the analysis of the PSF. These PDFs were implemented in the VSM using inverse transform sampling. To model particle directions, the phase space plane was divided into a regular square grid. Each element of the grid corresponds to an area of 1 mm2 in the phase space plane. The average direction cosines, Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between photon energies and their direction cosines, as well as the PCC between the direction cosines were calculated for each grid element. Weighted polynomial surfaces were then fitted to these 2D data. The weights are used to correct for heteroscedasticity across the phase space bins. The directions of the particles created by the VSM were calculated from these fitted functions. The VSM was validated against the PSF by comparing the doses calculated by the two methods for different square field sizes. The comparisons were performed with profile and gamma analyses. The doses calculated with the PSF and VSM agree to within 3% /1 mm (>95% pixel pass rate) for the evaluated fields. A new method of deriving a virtual photon source model of a linear accelerator from a PSF file for MC dose calculation was developed. Validation results show that the doses calculated with the VSM and the PSF agree to within 3% /1 mm.

  8. A single-source photon source model of a linear accelerator for Monte Carlo dose calculation.

    Obioma Nwankwo

    Full Text Available To introduce a new method of deriving a virtual source model (VSM of a linear accelerator photon beam from a phase space file (PSF for Monte Carlo (MC dose calculation.A PSF of a 6 MV photon beam was generated by simulating the interactions of primary electrons with the relevant geometries of a Synergy linear accelerator (Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden and recording the particles that reach a plane 16 cm downstream the electron source. Probability distribution functions (PDFs for particle positions and energies were derived from the analysis of the PSF. These PDFs were implemented in the VSM using inverse transform sampling. To model particle directions, the phase space plane was divided into a regular square grid. Each element of the grid corresponds to an area of 1 mm2 in the phase space plane. The average direction cosines, Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC between photon energies and their direction cosines, as well as the PCC between the direction cosines were calculated for each grid element. Weighted polynomial surfaces were then fitted to these 2D data. The weights are used to correct for heteroscedasticity across the phase space bins. The directions of the particles created by the VSM were calculated from these fitted functions. The VSM was validated against the PSF by comparing the doses calculated by the two methods for different square field sizes. The comparisons were performed with profile and gamma analyses.The doses calculated with the PSF and VSM agree to within 3% /1 mm (>95% pixel pass rate for the evaluated fields.A new method of deriving a virtual photon source model of a linear accelerator from a PSF file for MC dose calculation was developed. Validation results show that the doses calculated with the VSM and the PSF agree to within 3% /1 mm.

  9. Carnivore translocations and conservation: insights from population models and field data for fishers (Martes pennanti.

    Jeffrey C Lewis

    Full Text Available Translocations are frequently used to restore extirpated carnivore populations. Understanding the factors that influence translocation success is important because carnivore translocations can be time consuming, expensive, and controversial. Using population viability software, we modeled reintroductions of the fisher, a candidate for endangered or threatened status in the Pacific states of the US. Our model predicts that the most important factor influencing successful re-establishment of a fisher population is the number of adult females reintroduced (provided some males are also released. Data from 38 translocations of fishers in North America, including 30 reintroductions, 5 augmentations and 3 introductions, show that the number of females released was, indeed, a good predictor of success but that the number of males released, geographic region and proximity of the source population to the release site were also important predictors. The contradiction between model and data regarding males may relate to the assumption in the model that all males are equally good breeders. We hypothesize that many males may need to be released to insure a sufficient number of good breeders are included, probably large males. Seventy-seven percent of reintroductions with known outcomes (success or failure succeeded; all 5 augmentations succeeded; but none of the 3 introductions succeeded. Reintroductions were instrumental in reestablishing fisher populations within their historical range and expanding the range from its most-contracted state (43% of the historical range to its current state (68% of the historical range. To increase the likelihood of translocation success, we recommend that managers: 1 release as many fishers as possible, 2 release more females than males (55-60% females when possible, 3 release as many adults as possible, especially large males, 4 release fishers from a nearby source population, 5 conduct a formal feasibility assessment, and

  10. Joint modeling and registration of cell populations in cohorts of high-dimensional flow cytometric data.

    Saumyadipta Pyne

    Full Text Available In biomedical applications, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multivariate responses of a panel of markers such as from a signaling network. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While computational methods can identify cell populations in individual samples, without the ability to automatically match them across samples, it is difficult to compare and characterize the populations in typical experiments, such as those responding to various stimulations or distinctive of particular patients or time-points, especially when there are many samples. Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM is a multi-level framework for simultaneous modeling and registration of populations across a cohort. JCM models every population with a robust multivariate probability distribution. Simultaneously, JCM fits a random-effects model to construct an overall batch template--used for registering populations across samples, and classifying new samples. By tackling systems-level variation, JCM supports practical biomedical applications involving large cohorts. Software for fitting the JCM models have been implemented in an R package EMMIX-JCM, available from http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/mix_soft/EMMIX-JCM/.

  11. How Many Separable Sources? Model Selection In Independent Components Analysis

    Woods, Roger P.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Strother, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    among potential model categories with differing numbers of Gaussian components. Based on simulation studies, the assumptions and approximations underlying the Akaike Information Criterion do not hold in this setting, even with a very large number of observations. Cross-validation is a suitable, though....../Principal Components Analysis (mixed ICA/PCA) model described here accommodates one or more Gaussian components in the independent components analysis model and uses principal components analysis to characterize contributions from this inseparable Gaussian subspace. Information theory can then be used to select from...... might otherwise be questionable. Failure of the Akaike Information Criterion in model selection also has relevance in traditional independent components analysis where all sources are assumed non-Gaussian....

  12. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  13. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  14. Receptor Model Source Apportionment of Nonmethane Hydrocarbons in Mexico City

    V. Mugica

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of estimating the source contributions of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC to the atmosphere at three different sites in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, 92 ambient air samples were measured from February 23 to March 22 of 1997. Light- and heavy-duty vehicular profiles were determined to differentiate the NMHC contribution of diesel and gasoline to the atmosphere. Food cooking source profiles were also determined for chemical mass balance receptor model application. Initial source contribution estimates were carried out to determine the adequate combination of source profiles and fitting species. Ambient samples of NMHC were apportioned to motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapor, handling and distribution of liquefied petroleum gas (LP gas, asphalt operations, painting operations, landfills, and food cooking. Both gasoline and diesel motor vehicle exhaust were the major NMHC contributors for all sites and times, with a percentage of up to 75%. The average motor vehicle exhaust contributions increased during the day. In contrast, LP gas contribution was higher during the morning than in the afternoon. Apportionment for the most abundant individual NMHC showed that the vehicular source is the major contributor to acetylene, ethylene, pentanes, n-hexane, toluene, and xylenes, while handling and distribution of LP gas was the major source contributor to propane and butanes. Comparison between CMB estimates of NMHC and the emission inventory showed a good agreement for vehicles, handling and distribution of LP gas, and painting operations; nevertheless, emissions from diesel exhaust and asphalt operations showed differences, and the results suggest that these emissions could be underestimated.

  15. [Dietary sources of vitamin A, C, E and beta-carotene in a adult Mediterranean population].

    Gascón-Vila, P; Ribas, L; García-Closas, R; Farrán Codina, A; Serra-Majem, L

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of vitamin A, C, E and beta-carotene food sources, as well as its nutritional intake and density in adult Catalonian population. A cross-sectional study was conducted over 2,346 individuals obtained from the sample of Catalonian Survey of Nutritional Status aged 18 to 75 years old to estimate usual dietary intake of vitamins A, C, E and beta-carotene using two 24 hour dietary recalls administered in two periods (june-july and november-december of 1992). Replicated 24 hour Recalls allowed for estimation of usual intake. Calculation of food sources for vitamins encompassed three phases: foods transformation into nutrients, aggregation of foods in categories and sum of nutrients by food categories. Intake of vitamin A (equivalents of retinol of provitamin A and vitamin A), E, C were closely near or higher than RDA. Nutritional density of vitamin C, E and beta-carotene were higher in female group. Nutritional density was positively associated to age for vitamins C, E and beta-carotene. Addition fat was the first source of vitamin E and it reached 33.8% of total vitamin E intake. Vegetables contributed in 17.3 % to the total vitamin C, whereas fruits accounted for 57.9%. Fruits recached 40.6% of the total beta-carotene intake, whereas vegetables accounted for 34.8%. The major contributors of vitamin A were milk and dairy products. Nutritional intake of vitamin A, C and E are over the RDA parameters suggesting an healthy nutritional status that must be confirmed and ratify by biochemical assessment. Nutritional densities were higher in female gender than in males in vitamins C, E, and beta-carotene possibly due to a higher intake of total lipids in male gender than in females. Nutritional density was positively associated to age in the same group of vitamins, suggesting a higher intake of empty calories in younger group. Fruits and Vegetables accounted for more than 70% of vitamin C and beta-carotene and major contributors were citrics, carrots, tomatoes

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)

    Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface, and ele......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface...

  17. Preventing Noise-Induced Extinction in Discrete Population Models

    Irina Bashkirtseva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A problem of the analysis and prevention of noise-induced extinction in nonlinear population models is considered. For the solution of this problem, we suggest a general approach based on the stochastic sensitivity analysis. To prevent the noise-induced extinction, we construct feedback regulators which provide a low stochastic sensitivity and keep the system close to the safe equilibrium regime. For the demonstration of this approach, we apply our mathematical technique to the conceptual but quite representative Ricker-type models. A variant of the Ricker model with delay is studied along with the classic widely used one-dimensional system.

  18. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Defense of single-factor models of population regulation

    Tamarin, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    I reject a multifactorial approach to the study of the regulation of animal populations for two reasons. First, a mechanism suggested by Chitty, that has natural selection at its base, has not been adequately tested. Second, the multifactorial model suggested by Lidicker is untestable because of its vagueness. As a middle ground, I suggest a model that has natural selection as its mechanism, but is multifacturial because it allows many parameters to be the selective agents. I particularly emphasize prediction and selective dispersal. Methods to test this model are suggested

  20. Atmospheric mercury dispersion modelling from two nearest hypothetical point sources

    Al Razi, Khandakar Md Habib; Hiroshi, Moritomi; Shinji, Kambara [Environmental and Renewable Energy System (ERES), Graduate School of Engineering, Gifu University, Yanagido, Gifu City, 501-1193 (Japan)

    2012-07-01

    The Japan coastal areas are still environmentally friendly, though there are multiple air emission sources originating as a consequence of several developmental activities such as automobile industries, operation of thermal power plants, and mobile-source pollution. Mercury is known to be a potential air pollutant in the region apart from SOX, NOX, CO and Ozone. Mercury contamination in water bodies and other ecosystems due to deposition of atmospheric mercury is considered a serious environmental concern. Identification of sources contributing to the high atmospheric mercury levels will be useful for formulating pollution control and mitigation strategies in the region. In Japan, mercury and its compounds were categorized as hazardous air pollutants in 1996 and are on the list of 'Substances Requiring Priority Action' published by the Central Environmental Council of Japan. The Air Quality Management Division of the Environmental Bureau, Ministry of the Environment, Japan, selected the current annual mean environmental air quality standard for mercury and its compounds of 0.04 ?g/m3. Long-term exposure to mercury and its compounds can have a carcinogenic effect, inducing eg, Minamata disease. This study evaluates the impact of mercury emissions on air quality in the coastal area of Japan. Average yearly emission of mercury from an elevated point source in this area with background concentration and one-year meteorological data were used to predict the ground level concentration of mercury. To estimate the concentration of mercury and its compounds in air of the local area, two different simulation models have been used. The first is the National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk Assessment (AIST-ADMER) that estimates regional atmospheric concentration and distribution. The second is the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) that estimates the atmospheric

  1. Population Health in Pediatric Speech and Language Disorders: Available Data Sources and a Research Agenda for the Field.

    Raghavan, Ramesh; Camarata, Stephen; White, Karl; Barbaresi, William; Parish, Susan; Krahn, Gloria

    2018-05-17

    The aim of the study was to provide an overview of population science as applied to speech and language disorders, illustrate data sources, and advance a research agenda on the epidemiology of these conditions. Computer-aided database searches were performed to identify key national surveys and other sources of data necessary to establish the incidence, prevalence, and course and outcome of speech and language disorders. This article also summarizes a research agenda that could enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of these disorders. Although the data yielded estimates of prevalence and incidence for speech and language disorders, existing sources of data are inadequate to establish reliable rates of incidence, prevalence, and outcomes for speech and language disorders at the population level. Greater support for inclusion of speech and language disorder-relevant questions is necessary in national health surveys to build the population science in the field.

  2. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models.

    Thorson, James T; Ono, Kotaro; Munch, Stephan B

    2014-02-01

    State-space estimation methods are increasingly used in ecology to estimate productivity and abundance of natural populations while accounting for variability in both population dynamics and measurement processes. However, functional forms for population dynamics and density dependence often will not match the true biological process, and this may degrade the performance of state-space methods. We therefore developed a Bayesian semiparametric state-space model, which uses a Gaussian process (GP) to approximate the population growth function. This offers two benefits for population modeling. First, it allows data to update a specified "prior" on the population growth function, while reverting to this prior when data are uninformative. Second, it allows variability in population dynamics to be decomposed into random errors around the population growth function ("process error") and errors due to the mismatch between the specified prior and estimated growth function ("model error"). We used simulation modeling to illustrate the utility of GP methods in state-space population dynamics models. Results confirmed that the GP model performs similarly to a conventional state-space model when either (1) the prior matches the true process or (2) data are relatively uninformative. However, GP methods improve estimates of the population growth function when the function is misspecified. Results also demonstrated that the estimated magnitude of "model error" can be used to distinguish cases of model misspecification. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for GP methods in other state-space models, including age and length-structured, meta-analytic, and individual-movement models.

  3. Ionizing radiations used in medical diagnostics as a source of radiation exposure of the Bulgarian population

    Ingilizova, K.; Vasilev, G.

    1998-01-01

    X-ray and radionuclide application in medical diagnosing is the major sources of Bulgarian population exposure to ionizing radiations exceeding the radiation background. The number of X-ray examination on a nationwide scale shows an increase from 1600 thousand annually in 1950 to 10300 thousand in 1980 and decreases to about 4700 thousand annually for the period 1992-1993. The frequency for the above mentioned time intervals varies in the range 0.22 to 1.17 examinations per capita annually and decreases to 0.56. The roentgenoscopy to roentgenography ratio varies from 2.5:1 to 0.9:1 (1975) and increases to 2.0:1 (1993). The number of radioisotope examinations increased from 34 thousand in 1970 to 170 thousand annually in 1985 and decreased to about thousand annually in 1992-1993 with a number of studies per capita varying from 0.004 to 0.020 and decreasing to 0.010. In 1993 the annual collective effective dose due to X-ray diagnostics amounts to about 7000 man-Sv/a which exceeds the radiation background exposure by 76%. Radioisotope diagnostics in the period reviewed accounted for nearly 700 man-Sv/a with an exposure exceeding the radiation background by 7.7%. The major problems relating to patient protection and benefit/risk ratio improvement are discussed. (author)

  4. Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) δ15N as a bioindicator of nitrogen sources: Observations and modeling

    Fertig, B.; Carruthers, T.J.B.; Dennison, W.C.; Fertig, E.J.; Altabet, M.A.

    2010-01-01

    Stable nitrogen isotopes (δ 15 N) in bioindicators are increasingly employed to identify nitrogen sources in many ecosystems and biological characteristics of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) make it an appropriate species for this purpose. To assess nitrogen isotopic fractionation associated with assimilation and baseline variations in oyster mantle, gill, and muscle tissue δ 15 N, manipulative fieldwork in Chesapeake Bay and corresponding modeling exercises were conducted. This study (1) determined that five individuals represented an optimal sample size; (2) verified that δ 15 N in oysters from two locations converged after shared deployment to a new location reflecting a change in nitrogen sources; (3) identified required exposure time and temporal integration (four months for muscle, two to three months for gill and mantle); and (4) demonstrated seasonal δ 15 N increases in seston (summer) and oysters (winter). As bioindicators, oysters can be deployed for spatial interpolation of nitrogen sources, even in areas lacking extant populations.

  5. Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

    Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

  6. Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

    Liu, Zhen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Sargsyan, Khachik [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Najm, Habib N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); LaFranchi, Brian W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Ivey, Mark D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Schrader, Paul E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Michelsen, Hope A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Bambha, Ray P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developed a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF

  7. Modeling of low pressure plasma sources for microelectronics fabrication

    Agarwal, Ankur; Bera, Kallol; Kenney, Jason; Rauf, Shahid; Likhanskii, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    Chemically reactive plasmas operating in the 1 mTorr–10 Torr pressure range are widely used for thin film processing in the semiconductor industry. Plasma modeling has come to play an important role in the design of these plasma processing systems. A number of 3-dimensional (3D) fluid and hybrid plasma modeling examples are used to illustrate the role of computational investigations in design of plasma processing hardware for applications such as ion implantation, deposition, and etching. A model for a rectangular inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source is described, which is employed as an ion source for ion implantation. It is shown that gas pressure strongly influences ion flux uniformity, which is determined by the balance between the location of plasma production and diffusion. The effect of chamber dimensions on plasma uniformity in a rectangular capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) is examined using an electromagnetic plasma model. Due to high pressure and small gap in this system, plasma uniformity is found to be primarily determined by the electric field profile in the sheath/pre-sheath region. A 3D model is utilized to investigate the confinement properties of a mesh in a cylindrical CCP. Results highlight the role of hole topology and size on the formation of localized hot-spots. A 3D electromagnetic plasma model for a cylindrical ICP is used to study inductive versus capacitive power coupling and how placement of ground return wires influences it. Finally, a 3D hybrid plasma model for an electron beam generated magnetized plasma is used to understand the role of reactor geometry on plasma uniformity in the presence of E  ×  B drift. (paper)

  8. Modeling of low pressure plasma sources for microelectronics fabrication

    Agarwal, Ankur; Bera, Kallol; Kenney, Jason; Likhanskii, Alexandre; Rauf, Shahid

    2017-10-01

    Chemically reactive plasmas operating in the 1 mTorr-10 Torr pressure range are widely used for thin film processing in the semiconductor industry. Plasma modeling has come to play an important role in the design of these plasma processing systems. A number of 3-dimensional (3D) fluid and hybrid plasma modeling examples are used to illustrate the role of computational investigations in design of plasma processing hardware for applications such as ion implantation, deposition, and etching. A model for a rectangular inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source is described, which is employed as an ion source for ion implantation. It is shown that gas pressure strongly influences ion flux uniformity, which is determined by the balance between the location of plasma production and diffusion. The effect of chamber dimensions on plasma uniformity in a rectangular capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) is examined using an electromagnetic plasma model. Due to high pressure and small gap in this system, plasma uniformity is found to be primarily determined by the electric field profile in the sheath/pre-sheath region. A 3D model is utilized to investigate the confinement properties of a mesh in a cylindrical CCP. Results highlight the role of hole topology and size on the formation of localized hot-spots. A 3D electromagnetic plasma model for a cylindrical ICP is used to study inductive versus capacitive power coupling and how placement of ground return wires influences it. Finally, a 3D hybrid plasma model for an electron beam generated magnetized plasma is used to understand the role of reactor geometry on plasma uniformity in the presence of E  ×  B drift.

  9. Sensitivity of numerical dispersion modeling to explosive source parameters

    Baskett, R.L.; Cederwall, R.T.

    1991-01-01

    The calculation of downwind concentrations from non-traditional sources, such as explosions, provides unique challenges to dispersion models. The US Department of Energy has assigned the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) the task of estimating the impact of accidental radiological releases to the atmosphere anywhere in the world. Our experience includes responses to over 25 incidents in the past 16 years, and about 150 exercises a year. Examples of responses to explosive accidents include the 1980 Titan 2 missile fuel explosion near Damascus, Arkansas and the hydrogen gas explosion in the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Based on judgment and experience, we frequently estimate the source geometry and the amount of toxic material aerosolized as well as its particle size distribution. To expedite our real-time response, we developed some automated algorithms and default assumptions about several potential sources. It is useful to know how well these algorithms perform against real-world measurements and how sensitive our dispersion model is to the potential range of input values. In this paper we present the algorithms we use to simulate explosive events, compare these methods with limited field data measurements, and analyze their sensitivity to input parameters. 14 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Particle model of a cylindrical inductively coupled ion source

    Ippolito, N. D.; Taccogna, F.; Minelli, P.; Cavenago, M.; Veltri, P.

    2017-08-01

    In spite of the wide use of RF sources, a complete understanding of the mechanisms regulating the RF-coupling of the plasma is still lacking so self-consistent simulations of the involved physics are highly desirable. For this reason we are developing a 2.5D fully kinetic Particle-In-Cell Monte-Carlo-Collision (PIC-MCC) model of a cylindrical ICP-RF source, keeping the time step of the simulation small enough to resolve the plasma frequency scale. The grid cell dimension is now about seven times larger than the average Debye length, because of the large computational demand of the code. It will be scaled down in the next phase of the development of the code. The filling gas is Xenon, in order to minimize the time lost by the MCC collision module in the first stage of development of the code. The results presented here are preliminary, with the code already showing a good robustness. The final goal will be the modeling of the NIO1 (Negative Ion Optimization phase 1) source, operating in Padua at Consorzio RFX.

  11. A theoretical model of a liquid metal ion source

    Kingham, D.R.; Swanson, L.W.

    1984-01-01

    A model of liquid metal ion source (LMIS) operation has been developed which gives a consistent picture of three different aspects of LMI sources: (i) the shape and size of the ion emitting region; (ii) the mechanism of ion formation; (iii) properties of the ion beam such as angular intensity and energy spread. It was found that the emitting region takes the shape of a jet-like protrusion on the end of a Taylor cone with ion emission from an area only a few tens of A across, in agreement with recent TEM pictures by Sudraud. This is consistent with ion formation predominantly by field evaporation. Calculated angular intensities and current-voltage characteristics based on our fluid dynamic jet-like protrusion model agree well with experiment. The formation of doubly charged ions is attributed to post-ionization of field evaporated singly charged ions and an apex field strength of about 2.0 V A -1 was calculated for a Ga source. The ion energy spread is mainly due to space charge effects, it is known to be reduced for doubly charged ions in agreement with this post-ionization mechanism. (author)

  12. Moving across the border: Modeling migratory bat populations

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  13. Extended gamma sources modelling using multipole expansion: Application to the Tunisian gamma source load planning

    Loussaief, Abdelkader

    2007-01-01

    In this work we extend the use of multipole moments expansion to the case of inner radiation fields. A series expansion of the photon flux was established. The main advantage of this approach is that it offers the opportunity to treat both inner and external radiation field cases. We determined the expression of the inner multipole moments in both spherical harmonics and in cartesian coordinates. As an application we applied the analytical model to a radiation facility used for small target irradiation. Theoretical, experimental and simulation studies were performed, in air and in a product, and good agreement was reached.Conventional dose distribution study for gamma irradiation facility involves the use of isodose maps. The establishment of these maps requires the measurement of the absorbed dose in many points, which makes the task expensive experimentally and very long by simulation. However, a lack of points of measurement can distort the dose distribution cartography. To overcome these problems, we present in this paper a mathematical method to describe the dose distribution in air. This method is based on the multipole expansion in spherical harmonics of the photon flux emitted by the gamma source. The determination of the multipole coefficients of this development allows the modeling of the radiation field around the gamma source. (Author)

  14. REQUIREMENTS TO THE LIMITATION OF POPULATION EXPO-SURE FROM THE NATIRAL IONIZING IRRADIATION SOURCES IN INDUSTRIAL CONDITIONS

    I. P. Stamat

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents conceptually new requirements to the limitation of population exposure from the natural ionizing irradiation sources in industrial conditions, introduced into Basic Sanitary Rules of Radiation Safety (OSPORB-99/2010. It is shown that, first of all, introduction of these requirements is aimed at the resolution of variety of previously existing serious contradictions in organization of radiation safety control and supervision for the impact of natural ionizing irradiation sources in industry.

  15. Population Synthesis Models for Normal Galaxies with Dusty Disks

    Kyung-Won Suh

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the SEDs of galaxies considering the dust extinction processes in the galactic disks, we present the population synthesis models for normal galaxies with dusty disks. We use PEGASE (Fioc & Rocca-Volmerange 1997 to model them with standard input parameters for stars and new dust parameters. We find that the model results are strongly dependent on the dust parameters as well as other parameters (e.g. star formation history. We compare the model results with the observations and discuss about the possible explanations. We find that the dust opacity functions derived from studies of asymptotic giant branch stars are useful for modeling a galaxy with a dusty disk.

  16. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  17. Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

    Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

    2006-01-01

    Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions

  18. SOURCE 2.0 model development: UO2 thermal properties

    Reid, P.J.; Richards, M.J.; Iglesias, F.C.; Brito, A.C.

    1997-01-01

    During analysis of CANDU postulated accidents, the reactor fuel is estimated to experience large temperature variations and to be exposed to a variety of environments from highly oxidized to mildly reducing. The exposure of CANDU fuel to these environments and temperatures may affect fission product releases from the fuel and cause degradation of the fuel thermal properties. The SOURCE 2.0 project is a safety analysis code which will model the necessary mechanisms required to calculate fission product release for a variety of accident scenarios, including large break loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) with or without emergency core cooling. The goal of the model development is to generate models which are consistent with each other and phenomenologically based, insofar as that is possible given the state of theoretical understanding

  19. RF Plasma modeling of the Linac4 H− ion source

    Mattei, S; Hatayama, A; Lettry, J; Kawamura, Y; Yasumoto, M; Schmitzer, C

    2013-01-01

    This study focuses on the modelling of the ICP RF-plasma in the Linac4 H− ion source currently being constructed at CERN. A self-consistent model of the plasma dynamics with the RF electromagnetic field has been developed by a PIC-MCC method. In this paper, the model is applied to the analysis of a low density plasma discharge initiation, with particular interest on the effect of the external magnetic field on the plasma properties, such as wall loss, electron density and electron energy. The use of a multi-cusp magnetic field effectively limits the wall losses, particularly in the radial direction. Preliminary results however indicate that a reduced heating efficiency results in such a configuration. The effect is possibly due to trapping of electrons in the multi-cusp magnetic field, preventing their continuous acceleration in the azimuthal direction.

  20. How to Model Super-Soft X-ray Sources?

    Rauch, Thomas

    2012-07-01

    During outbursts, the surface temperatures of white dwarfs in cataclysmic variables exceed by far half a million Kelvin. In this phase, they may become the brightest super-soft sources (SSS) in the sky. Time-series of high-resolution, high S/N X-ray spectra taken during rise, maximum, and decline of their X-ray luminosity provide insights into the processes following such outbursts as well as in the surface composition of the white dwarf. Their analysis requires adequate NLTE model atmospheres. The Tuebingen Non-LTE Model-Atmosphere Package (TMAP) is a powerful tool for their calculation. We present the application of TMAP models to SSS spectra and discuss their validity.

  1. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-11-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

  2. Using a Population Model to Inform the Management of River Flows and Invasive Carp ( Cyprinus carpio)

    Koehn, John D.; Todd, Charles R.; Zampatti, Brenton P.; Stuart, Ivor G.; Conallin, Anthony; Thwaites, Leigh; Ye, Qifeng

    2018-03-01

    Carp are a highly successful invasive fish species, now widespread, abundant and considered a pest in south-eastern Australia. To date, most management effort has been directed at reducing abundances of adult fish, with little consideration of population growth through reproduction. Environmental water allocations are now an important option for the rehabilitation of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin. As carp respond to flows, there is concern that environmental watering may cause floodplain inundation and provide access to spawning habitats subsequently causing unwanted population increase. This is a management conundrum that needs to be carefully considered within the context of contemporary river flow management (natural, environmental, irrigation). This paper uses a population model to investigate flow-related carp population dynamics for three case studies in the Murray-Darling Basin: (1) river and terminal lakes; (2) wetlands and floodplain lakes; and (3) complex river channel and floodplain system. Results highlight distinctive outcomes depending on site characteristics. In particular, the terminal lakes maintain a significant source carp population regardless of river flow; hence any additional within-channel environmental flows are likely to have little impact on carp populations. In contrast, large-scale removal of carp from the lakes may be beneficial, especially in times of extended low river flows. Case studies 2 and 3 show how wetlands, floodplain lakes and the floodplain itself can now often be inundated for several months over the carp spawning season by high volume flows provided for irrigation or water transfers. Such inundations can be a major driver of carp populations, compared to within channel flows that have relatively little effecton recruitment. The use of a population model that incorporates river flows and different habitats for this flow-responsive species, allows for the comparison of likely population

  3. Modeling Degradation Product Partitioning in Chlorinated-DNAPL Source Zones

    Boroumand, A.; Ramsburg, A.; Christ, J.; Abriola, L.

    2009-12-01

    Metabolic reductive dechlorination degrades aqueous phase contaminant concentrations, increasing the driving force for DNAPL dissolution. Results from laboratory and field investigations suggest that accumulation of cis-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) may occur within DNAPL source zones. The lack of (or slow) degradation of cis-DCE and VC within bioactive DNAPL source zones may result in these dechlorination products becoming distributed among the solid, aqueous, and organic phases. Partitioning of cis-DCE and VC into the organic phase may reduce aqueous phase concentrations of these contaminants and result in the enrichment of these dechlorination products within the non-aqueous phase. Enrichment of degradation products within DNAPL may reduce some of the advantages associated with the application of bioremediation in DNAPL source zones. Thus, it is important to quantify how partitioning (between the aqueous and organic phases) influences the transport of cis-DCE and VC within bioactive DNAPL source zones. In this work, abiotic two-phase (PCE-water) one-dimensional column experiments are modeled using analytical and numerical methods to examine the rate of partitioning and the capacity of PCE-DNAPL to reversibly sequester cis-DCE. These models consider aqueous-phase, nonaqueous phase, and aqueous plus nonaqueous phase mass transfer resistance using linear driving force and spherical diffusion expressions. Model parameters are examined and compared for different experimental conditions to evaluate the mechanisms controlling partitioning. Biot number, a dimensionless number which is an index of the ratio of the aqueous phase mass transfer rate in boundary layer to the mass transfer rate within the NAPL, is used to characterize conditions in which either or both processes are controlling. Results show that application of a single aqueous resistance is capable to capture breakthrough curves when DNAPL is distributed in porous media as low

  4. Determination of Original Infection Source of H7N9 Avian Influenza by Dynamical Model

    Zhang, Juan; Jin, Zhen; Sun, Gui-Quan; Sun, Xiang-Dong; Wang, You-Ming; Huang, Baoxu

    2014-05-01

    H7N9, a newly emerging virus in China, travels among poultry and human. Although H7N9 has not aroused massive outbreaks, recurrence in the second half of 2013 makes it essential to control the spread. It is believed that the most effective control measure is to locate the original infection source and cut off the source of infection from human. However, the original infection source and the internal transmission mechanism of the new virus are not totally clear. In order to determine the original infection source of H7N9, we establish a dynamical model with migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry and human population, and view migratory bird, resident bird, domestic poultry as original infection source respectively to fit the true dynamics during the 2013 pandemic. By comparing the date fitting results and corresponding Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values, we conclude that migrant birds are most likely the original infection source. In addition, we obtain the basic reproduction number in poultry and carry out sensitivity analysis of some parameters.

  5. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee

  6. Energy Intake, Profile, and Dietary Sources in the Spanish Population: Findings of the ANIBES Study

    Emma Ruiz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy intake, and the foods and beverages contributing to that, are considered key to understanding the high obesity prevalence worldwide. The relative contributions of energy intake and expenditure to the obesity epidemic, however, remain poorly defined in Spain. The purpose of this study was to contribute to updating data of dietary energy intake and its main sources from food and beverages, according to gender and age. These data were derived from the ANIBES (“Anthropometry, Intake, and Energy Balance in Spain” study, a cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of the Spanish population (from 9–75 years old. A three-day dietary record, collected by means of a tablet device, was used to obtain information about food and beverage consumption and leftovers. The final sample comprised 2009 individuals (1,013 men, 996 women. The observed mean dietary energy intake was 7.6 ± 2.11 MJ/day (8.2 ± 2.22 MJ/day for men and 6.9 ± 1.79 MJ/day for women. The highest intakes were observed among adolescents aged 13–17 years (8.4 MJ/day, followed by children 9–12 years (8.2 ± 1.80 MJ/day, adults aged 18–64 (7.6 ± 2.14 MJ/day and older adults aged 65–75 years (6.8 ± 1.88 MJ/day. Cereals or grains (27.4%, meats and derivatives (15.2%, oils and fats (12.3%, and milk and dairy products (11.8% contributed most to daily energy intake. Energy contributions from non-alcoholic beverages (3.9%, fish and shellfish (3.6%, sugars and sweets (3.3% and alcoholic beverages (2.6% were moderate to minor. Contributions to caloric profile were 16.8%E from proteins; 41.1%E from carbohydrates, including 1.4%E from fiber; 38.5%E from fats; and 1.9%E from alcohol intake. We can conclude that energy intake is decreasing in the Spanish population. A variety of food and beverage groups contribute to energy intake; however, it is necessary to reinforce efforts for better adherence to the traditional Mediterranean diet.

  7. Energy Intake, Profile, and Dietary Sources in the Spanish Population: Findings of the ANIBES Study.

    Ruiz, Emma; Ávila, José Manuel; Valero, Teresa; del Pozo, Susana; Rodriguez, Paula; Aranceta-Bartrina, Javier; Gil, Ángel; González-Gross, Marcela; Ortega, Rosa M; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Varela-Moreiras, Gregorio

    2015-06-12

    Energy intake, and the foods and beverages contributing to that, are considered key to understanding the high obesity prevalence worldwide. The relative contributions of energy intake and expenditure to the obesity epidemic, however, remain poorly defined in Spain. The purpose of this study was to contribute to updating data of dietary energy intake and its main sources from food and beverages, according to gender and age. These data were derived from the ANIBES ("Anthropometry, Intake, and Energy Balance in Spain") study, a cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample of the Spanish population (from 9-75 years old). A three-day dietary record, collected by means of a tablet device, was used to obtain information about food and beverage consumption and leftovers. The final sample comprised 2009 individuals (1,013 men, 996 women). The observed mean dietary energy intake was 7.6 ± 2.11 MJ/day (8.2 ± 2.22 MJ/day for men and 6.9 ± 1.79 MJ/day for women). The highest intakes were observed among adolescents aged 13-17 years (8.4 MJ/day), followed by children 9-12 years (8.2 ± 1.80 MJ/day), adults aged 18-64 (7.6 ± 2.14 MJ/day) and older adults aged 65-75 years (6.8 ± 1.88 MJ/day). Cereals or grains (27.4%), meats and derivatives (15.2%), oils and fats (12.3%), and milk and dairy products (11.8%) contributed most to daily energy intake. Energy contributions from non-alcoholic beverages (3.9%), fish and shellfish (3.6%), sugars and sweets (3.3%) and alcoholic beverages (2.6%) were moderate to minor. Contributions to caloric profile were 16.8%E from proteins; 41.1%E from carbohydrates, including 1.4%E from fiber; 38.5%E from fats; and 1.9%E from alcohol intake. We can conclude that energy intake is decreasing in the Spanish population. A variety of food and beverage groups contribute to energy intake; however, it is necessary to reinforce efforts for better adherence to the traditional Mediterranean diet.

  8. Cardiac magnetic source imaging based on current multipole model

    Tang Fa-Kuan; Wang Qian; Hua Ning; Lu Hong; Tang Xue-Zheng; Ma Ping

    2011-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the heart current source can be reduced into a current multipole. By adopting three linear inverse methods, the cardiac magnetic imaging is achieved in this article based on the current multipole model expanded to the first order terms. This magnetic imaging is realized in a reconstruction plane in the centre of human heart, where the current dipole array is employed to represent realistic cardiac current distribution. The current multipole as testing source generates magnetic fields in the measuring plane, serving as inputs of cardiac magnetic inverse problem. In the heart-torso model constructed by boundary element method, the current multipole magnetic field distribution is compared with that in the homogeneous infinite space, and also with the single current dipole magnetic field distribution. Then the minimum-norm least-squares (MNLS) method, the optimal weighted pseudoinverse method (OWPIM), and the optimal constrained linear inverse method (OCLIM) are selected as the algorithms for inverse computation based on current multipole model innovatively, and the imaging effects of these three inverse methods are compared. Besides, two reconstructing parameters, residual and mean residual, are also discussed, and their trends under MNLS, OWPIM and OCLIM each as a function of SNR are obtained and compared. (general)

  9. Evaluating models of population process in a threatened population of Steller’s eiders: A retrospective approach

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-10-11

    The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 in response to perceived declines in abundance throughout their breeding and nesting range. Aerial surveys suggest the breeding population is small and highly variable in number, with zero birds counted in 5 of the last 25 years. Research was conducted to evaluate competing population process models of Alaskan-breeding Steller’s eiders through comparison of model projections to aerial survey data. To evaluate model efficacy and estimate demographic parameters, a Bayesian state-space modeling framework was used and each model was fit to counts from the annual aerial surveys, using sequential importance sampling and resampling. The results strongly support that the Alaskan breeding population experiences population level nonbreeding events and is open to exchange with the larger Russian-Pacific breeding population. Current recovery criteria for the Alaskan breeding population rely heavily on the ability to estimate population viability. The results of this investigation provide an informative model of the population process that can be used to examine future population states and assess the population in terms of the current recovery and reclassification criteria.

  10. Modeling population dynamics of mitochondria in mammalian cells

    Kornick, Kellianne; Das, Moumita

    Mitochondria are organelles located inside eukaryotic cells and are essential for several key cellular processes such as energy (ATP) production, cell signaling, differentiation, and apoptosis. All organisms are believed to have low levels of variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and alterations in mtDNA are connected to a range of human health conditions, including epilepsy, heart failure, Parkinsons disease, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Therefore, understanding how changes in mtDNA accumulate over time and are correlated to changes in mitochondrial function and cell properties can have a profound impact on our understanding of cell physiology and the origins of some diseases. Motivated by this, we develop and study a mathematical model to determine which cellular parameters have the largest impact on mtDNA population dynamics. The model consists of coupled ODEs to describe subpopulations of healthy and dysfunctional mitochondria subject to mitochondrial fission, fusion, autophagy, and mutation. We study the time evolution and stability of each sub-population under specific selection biases and pressures by tuning specific terms in our model. Our results may provide insights into how sub-populations of mitochondria survive and evolve under different selection pressures. This work was supported by a Grant from the Moore Foundation.

  11. A model for managing sources of groundwater pollution

    Gorelick, Steven M.

    1982-01-01

    The waste disposal capacity of a groundwater system can be maximized while maintaining water quality at specified locations by using a groundwater pollutant source management model that is based upon linear programing and numerical simulation. The decision variables of the management model are solute waste disposal rates at various facilities distributed over space. A concentration response matrix is used in the management model to describe transient solute transport and is developed using the U.S. Geological Survey solute transport simulation model. The management model was applied to a complex hypothetical groundwater system. Large-scale management models were formulated as dual linear programing problems to reduce numerical difficulties and computation time. Linear programing problems were solved using a numerically stable, available code. Optimal solutions to problems with successively longer management time horizons indicated that disposal schedules at some sites are relatively independent of the number of disposal periods. Optimal waste disposal schedules exhibited pulsing rather than constant disposal rates. Sensitivity analysis using parametric linear programing showed that a sharp reduction in total waste disposal potential occurs if disposal rates at any site are increased beyond their optimal values.

  12. Plant model of KIPT neutron source facility simulator

    Cao, Yan; Wei, Thomas Y.; Grelle, Austin L.; Gohar, Yousry

    2016-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) of the United States and Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) of Ukraine are collaborating on constructing a neutron source facility at KIPT, Kharkov, Ukraine. The facility has 100-kW electron beam driving a subcritical assembly (SCA). The electron beam interacts with a natural uranium target or a tungsten target to generate neutrons, and deposits its power in the target zone. The total fission power generated in SCA is about 300 kW. Two primary cooling loops are designed to remove 100-kW and 300-kW from the target zone and the SCA, respectively. A secondary cooling system is coupled with the primary cooling system to dispose of the generated heat outside the facility buildings to the atmosphere. In addition, the electron accelerator has a low efficiency for generating the electron beam, which uses another secondary cooling loop to remove the generated heat from the accelerator primary cooling loop. One of the main functions the KIPT neutron source facility is to train young nuclear specialists; therefore, ANL has developed the KIPT Neutron Source Facility Simulator for this function. In this simulator, a Plant Control System and a Plant Protection System were developed to perform proper control and to provide automatic protection against unsafe and improper operation of the facility during the steady-state and the transient states using a facility plant model. This report focuses on describing the physics of the plant model and provides several test cases to demonstrate its capabilities. The plant facility model uses the PYTHON script language. It is consistent with the computer language of the plant control system. It is easy to integrate with the simulator without an additional interface, and it is able to simulate the transients of the cooling systems with system control variables changing on real-time.

  13. Plant model of KIPT neutron source facility simulator

    Cao, Yan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wei, Thomas Y. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Grelle, Austin L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gohar, Yousry [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-02-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) of the United States and Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) of Ukraine are collaborating on constructing a neutron source facility at KIPT, Kharkov, Ukraine. The facility has 100-kW electron beam driving a subcritical assembly (SCA). The electron beam interacts with a natural uranium target or a tungsten target to generate neutrons, and deposits its power in the target zone. The total fission power generated in SCA is about 300 kW. Two primary cooling loops are designed to remove 100-kW and 300-kW from the target zone and the SCA, respectively. A secondary cooling system is coupled with the primary cooling system to dispose of the generated heat outside the facility buildings to the atmosphere. In addition, the electron accelerator has a low efficiency for generating the electron beam, which uses another secondary cooling loop to remove the generated heat from the accelerator primary cooling loop. One of the main functions the KIPT neutron source facility is to train young nuclear specialists; therefore, ANL has developed the KIPT Neutron Source Facility Simulator for this function. In this simulator, a Plant Control System and a Plant Protection System were developed to perform proper control and to provide automatic protection against unsafe and improper operation of the facility during the steady-state and the transient states using a facility plant model. This report focuses on describing the physics of the plant model and provides several test cases to demonstrate its capabilities. The plant facility model uses the PYTHON script language. It is consistent with the computer language of the plant control system. It is easy to integrate with the simulator without an additional interface, and it is able to simulate the transients of the cooling systems with system control variables changing on real-time.

  14. Sources

    Duffy, L.P.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the sources of radiation in the narrow perspective of radioactivity and the even narrow perspective of those sources that concern environmental management and restoration activities at DOE facilities, as well as a few related sources. Sources of irritation, Sources of inflammatory jingoism, and Sources of information. First, the sources of irritation fall into three categories: No reliable scientific ombudsman to speak without bias and prejudice for the public good, Technical jargon with unclear definitions exists within the radioactive nomenclature, and Scientific community keeps a low-profile with regard to public information. The next area of personal concern are the sources of inflammation. This include such things as: Plutonium being described as the most dangerous substance known to man, The amount of plutonium required to make a bomb, Talk of transuranic waste containing plutonium and its health affects, TMI-2 and Chernobyl being described as Siamese twins, Inadequate information on low-level disposal sites and current regulatory requirements under 10 CFR 61, Enhanced engineered waste disposal not being presented to the public accurately. Numerous sources of disinformation regarding low level radiation high-level radiation, Elusive nature of the scientific community, The Federal and State Health Agencies resources to address comparative risk, and Regulatory agencies speaking out without the support of the scientific community

  15. Bayesian model selection of template forward models for EEG source reconstruction.

    Strobbe, Gregor; van Mierlo, Pieter; De Vos, Maarten; Mijović, Bogdan; Hallez, Hans; Van Huffel, Sabine; López, José David; Vandenberghe, Stefaan

    2014-06-01

    Several EEG source reconstruction techniques have been proposed to identify the generating neuronal sources of electrical activity measured on the scalp. The solution of these techniques depends directly on the accuracy of the forward model that is inverted. Recently, a parametric empirical Bayesian (PEB) framework for distributed source reconstruction in EEG/MEG was introduced and implemented in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. The framework allows us to compare different forward modeling approaches, using real data, instead of using more traditional simulated data from an assumed true forward model. In the absence of a subject specific MR image, a 3-layered boundary element method (BEM) template head model is currently used including a scalp, skull and brain compartment. In this study, we introduced volumetric template head models based on the finite difference method (FDM). We constructed a FDM head model equivalent to the BEM model and an extended FDM model including CSF. These models were compared within the context of three different types of source priors related to the type of inversion used in the PEB framework: independent and identically distributed (IID) sources, equivalent to classical minimum norm approaches, coherence (COH) priors similar to methods such as LORETA, and multiple sparse priors (MSP). The resulting models were compared based on ERP data of 20 subjects using Bayesian model selection for group studies. The reconstructed activity was also compared with the findings of previous studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found very strong evidence in favor of the extended FDM head model with CSF and assuming MSP. These results suggest that the use of realistic volumetric forward models can improve PEB EEG source reconstruction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Open-source Software for Exoplanet Atmospheric Modeling

    Cubillos, Patricio; Blecic, Jasmina; Harrington, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    I will present a suite of self-standing open-source tools to model and retrieve exoplanet spectra implemented for Python. These include: (1) a Bayesian-statistical package to run Levenberg-Marquardt optimization and Markov-chain Monte Carlo posterior sampling, (2) a package to compress line-transition data from HITRAN or Exomol without loss of information, (3) a package to compute partition functions for HITRAN molecules, (4) a package to compute collision-induced absorption, and (5) a package to produce radiative-transfer spectra of transit and eclipse exoplanet observations and atmospheric retrievals.

  17. Sources of dietary protein in relation to blood pressure in a general Dutch population.

    Wieke Altorf-van der Kuil

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relation of different dietary protein types with blood pressure (BP. We examined whether intake of total, plant, animal, dairy, meat, and grain protein was related to BP in a cross sectional cohort of 20,820 Dutch adults, aged 20-65 y and not using antihypertensive medication. DESIGN: Mean BP levels were calculated in quintiles of energy-adjusted protein with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, education, smoking, and intake of energy, alcohol, and other nutrients including protein from other sources. In addition, mean BP difference after substitution of 3 en% carbohydrates or MUFA with protein was calculated. RESULTS: Total protein and animal protein were not associated with BP (p(trend = 0.62 and 0.71 respectively, both at the expense of carbohydrates and MUFA. Systolic BP was 1.8 mmHg lower (p(trend36 g/d than in the lowest (<27 g/d quintile of plant protein. This inverse association was present both at the expense of carbohydrates and MUFA and more pronounced in individuals with untreated hypertension (-3.6 mmHg than in those with normal (+0.1 mmHg or prehypertensive BP (-0.3 mmHg; p(interaction<0.01. Meat and grain protein were not related to BP. Dairy protein was directly associated with systolic BP (+1.6 mmHg, p(trend<0.01, but not with diastolic BP (p(trend = 0.24. CONCLUSIONS: Total protein and animal protein were not associated with BP in this general untreated Dutch population. Plant protein may be beneficial to BP, especially in people with elevated BP. However, because high intake of plant protein may be a marker of a healthy diet and lifestyle in general, confirmation from randomized controlled trials is warranted.

  18. Reference man models based on normal data from human populations

    Tanaka, Gi-ichiro; Kawamura, Hisao

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative description of the physical, and metabolic parameters of the human body is the very basic for internal dosimetry. Compilation of anatomical and other types of data Asian populations for internal (and external) dosimetry is of grate significance because of the potential spread of nuclear energy use in the Asian region and the major contribution of the region to the world population (about 58%). It has been observed that some differences exist for habitat, race, body sizes and pattern of food consumption. In the early stage of revision of ICRP Reference man by the Task Group, Characteristics of the human body of non-European populations received considerable attention as well as those of the European populations of different sexes and ages. In this context, an IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program on Compilation of Anatomical, Physiological and Metabolic Characteristics for a Reference Asian Man endorsed. In later stages of reference Man revision, anatomical data for Asians was discusses together with those of European populations, presumably due to ICRP's decision of unanimous use of the Reference Man for radiation protection. Reference man models for adults and 15, 10, 5, 1, 0 year-old males and females of Asian populations were developed for use in internal and external dosimetry. Based on the concept of ICRP Reference Man (Publication 23), the reference values were derived from the normal organ mass data for Japanese and statistical data on the physique and nutrition of Japanese and Chinese. Also incorporated were variations in physical measurements, as observed in the above mentioned IAEA-RCA Co-ordinated Research Program. The work was partly carried out within the activities of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man. The weight of the skeleton was adjusted following the revised values in Publication 70. This paper will report basic shared and non-shared characteristics of Reference Man' for Asians and ICRP Reference Man. (author)

  19. The prediction of the cavitation phenomena including population balance modeling

    Bannari, Rachid; Hliwa, Ghizlane Zineb; Bannari, Abdelfettah; Belghiti, Mly Taib

    2017-07-01

    Cavitation is the principal reason behind the behavior's modification of the hydraulic turbines. However, the experimental observations can not be appropriate to all cases due to the limitations in the measurement techniques. The mathematical models which have been implemented, use the mixture multiphase frame. As well as, most of the published work is limited by considering a constant bubble size distribution. However, this assumption is not realist. The aim of this article is the implementation and the use of a non-homogeneous multiphase model which solve two phases transport equation. The evolution of bubble size is considered by the population balance equation. This study is based on the eulerian-eulerian model, associated to the cavitation model. All the inter-phase forces such as drag, lift and virtual mass are used.

  20. Eulerian Multiphase Population Balance Model of Atomizing, Swirling Flows

    Narayana P. Rayapati

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An Eulerian/Eulerian multiphase flow model coupled with a population balance model is used as the basis for numerical simulation of atomization in swirling flows. The objective of this exercise is to develop a methodology capable of predicting the local point-wise drop size distribution in a spray, such as would be measured by the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDA. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of particle size distributions in an air-blast atomizer spray to demonstrate good qualitative and quantitative agreement. It is observed that the dependence of velocity on drop size inherent in a multiphase description of the drop cloud appears necessary to capture some features of the experimental data. Using this model, we demonstrate the relative contributions of secondary atomization and transport to the variation observed in the downstream spray drop size distribution.

  1. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

  2. Agricultural production as a source of irradiation of populations in radiation accidents

    Alexakhin, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    Radioactive contamination of the agricultural production sphere in case of a radiation accident with radionuclide release is one of the most important sources of additional irradiation for population. As a result, realisation of the measures for mitigating the consequences of the accident in agro-industrial complex assumes the leading role in total system of measures providing radiation safety. The possibility to obtain agricultural production meeting the radiological standards is one of the main indications of effectiveness of liquidation of the accident consequences. First, obtaining of agricultural production meeting the radiological standards provides decreasing of the total radiation dose. The evidence is obtained in the 8-year experience of liquidation of the Chernobyl NPP accident that the 70% decrease of the internal dose for population became possible through a complex of protection measures in agriculture (during the first year after the accident, the contribution of internal dose into the total one amounted to 45%, and that of external irradiation - 52%; for the 70-year period these values are 39% and 60%, respectively). Second, the possibility to obtain 'pure' agricultural production is one of the most important factors of psychological stability for population. Third, obtaining of consumable (as to radionuclide content) agricultural production in private small holdings is one of the guarantees of stability of demographic sector in the accident-affected zone. From the point of view of organization of agricultural production in liquidation of the consequences of accidents with radioactive releases into environment, some periods can be distinguished: (i) the first (early) period takes 10-12 days after the accident. The main measures in the field of agricultural production are in operative assessment of the radiological situation, organization of radiation survey, express classification of agricultural products ready to consumption. If radionuclide content

  3. Ions upstream of the earth's bow shock: a theoretical comparison of alternative source populations

    Schwartz, S.J.; Thomsen, M.F.; Gosling, J.T.

    1983-01-01

    A theoretical framework is developed for studying trajectories of ions reflected or leaked upstream from the earth's bow shock and subject solely to the Lorentz force in a steady interplanetary magnetic field B and the V x B electric field. We include the effects of a sharp shock potential rise. Expressions are derived for the guiding center motion and gyromotion in a frame (the Hoffman-Teller frame) moving parallel to the shock surface with sufficient speed to transform the incident solar wind velocity into motion entirely along the interplanetary magnetic field: the appropriate equations are also provided to transform these motions back to the observer's frame. The utility of these expressions is illustrated by comparing the predicted upstream motions for four different source models for upstream ions: magnetic moment-conserving reflection of the solar wind ions, specular reflection of solar wind ions, magnetic moment-conserving leakage of magnetosheath ions, and leakage of magnetosheath ions parallel to the shock normal. This comparison reveals that, for identical geometries, the reflection models produce higher energies and/or gyromotion than do the leakage models. We further argue that in a single simple encounter with the shock, an ion should behave in an unmagnetized manner and hence should not conserve its magnetic moment. Conservation of magnetic moment, if it is to occur, would seem to require multiple encounters with the shock. We investigate the conditions under which such multiple encounters can occur and find that under most quasi-parallel geometries neither leaked nor reflected ions should probably conserve their magnetic moments

  4. Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

    Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

    2015-01-01

    To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to

  5. Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere

    Ma, Denglong [Fuli School of Food Equipment Engineering and Science, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); Zhang, Zaoxiao, E-mail: zhangzx@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China)

    2016-07-05

    Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.

  6. Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere

    Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.

  7. A source-controlled data center network model.

    Yu, Yang; Liang, Mangui; Wang, Zhe

    2017-01-01

    The construction of data center network by applying SDN technology has become a hot research topic. The SDN architecture has innovatively separated the control plane from the data plane which makes the network more software-oriented and agile. Moreover, it provides virtual multi-tenancy, effective scheduling resources and centralized control strategies to meet the demand for cloud computing data center. However, the explosion of network information is facing severe challenges for SDN controller. The flow storage and lookup mechanisms based on TCAM device have led to the restriction of scalability, high cost and energy consumption. In view of this, a source-controlled data center network (SCDCN) model is proposed herein. The SCDCN model applies a new type of source routing address named the vector address (VA) as the packet-switching label. The VA completely defines the communication path and the data forwarding process can be finished solely relying on VA. There are four advantages in the SCDCN architecture. 1) The model adopts hierarchical multi-controllers and abstracts large-scale data center network into some small network domains that has solved the restriction for the processing ability of single controller and reduced the computational complexity. 2) Vector switches (VS) developed in the core network no longer apply TCAM for table storage and lookup that has significantly cut down the cost and complexity for switches. Meanwhile, the problem of scalability can be solved effectively. 3) The SCDCN model simplifies the establishment process for new flows and there is no need to download flow tables to VS. The amount of control signaling consumed when establishing new flows can be significantly decreased. 4) We design the VS on the NetFPGA platform. The statistical results show that the hardware resource consumption in a VS is about 27% of that in an OFS.

  8. Source characterization and dynamic fault modeling of induced seismicity

    Lui, S. K. Y.; Young, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years there are increasing concerns worldwide that industrial activities in the sub-surface can cause or trigger damaging earthquakes. In order to effectively mitigate the damaging effects of induced seismicity, the key is to better understand the source physics of induced earthquakes, which still remain elusive at present. Furthermore, an improved understanding of induced earthquake physics is pivotal to assess large-magnitude earthquake triggering. A better quantification of the possible causes of induced earthquakes can be achieved through numerical simulations. The fault model used in this study is governed by the empirically-derived rate-and-state friction laws, featuring a velocity-weakening (VW) patch embedded into a large velocity-strengthening (VS) region. Outside of that, the fault is slipping at the background loading rate. The model is fully dynamic, with all wave effects resolved, and is able to resolve spontaneous long-term slip history on a fault segment at all stages of seismic cycles. An earlier study using this model has established that aseismic slip plays a major role in the triggering of small repeating earthquakes. This study presents a series of cases with earthquakes occurring on faults with different fault frictional properties and fluid-induced stress perturbations. The effects to both the overall seismicity rate and fault slip behavior are investigated, and the causal relationship between the pre-slip pattern prior to the event and the induced source characteristics is discussed. Based on simulation results, the subsequent step is to select specific cases for laboratory experiments which allow well controlled variables and fault parameters. Ultimately, the aim is to provide better constraints on important parameters for induced earthquakes based on numerical modeling and laboratory data, and hence to contribute to a physics-based induced earthquake hazard assessment.

  9. A source-controlled data center network model

    Yu, Yang; Liang, Mangui; Wang, Zhe

    2017-01-01

    The construction of data center network by applying SDN technology has become a hot research topic. The SDN architecture has innovatively separated the control plane from the data plane which makes the network more software-oriented and agile. Moreover, it provides virtual multi-tenancy, effective scheduling resources and centralized control strategies to meet the demand for cloud computing data center. However, the explosion of network information is facing severe challenges for SDN controller. The flow storage and lookup mechanisms based on TCAM device have led to the restriction of scalability, high cost and energy consumption. In view of this, a source-controlled data center network (SCDCN) model is proposed herein. The SCDCN model applies a new type of source routing address named the vector address (VA) as the packet-switching label. The VA completely defines the communication path and the data forwarding process can be finished solely relying on VA. There are four advantages in the SCDCN architecture. 1) The model adopts hierarchical multi-controllers and abstracts large-scale data center network into some small network domains that has solved the restriction for the processing ability of single controller and reduced the computational complexity. 2) Vector switches (VS) developed in the core network no longer apply TCAM for table storage and lookup that has significantly cut down the cost and complexity for switches. Meanwhile, the problem of scalability can be solved effectively. 3) The SCDCN model simplifies the establishment process for new flows and there is no need to download flow tables to VS. The amount of control signaling consumed when establishing new flows can be significantly decreased. 4) We design the VS on the NetFPGA platform. The statistical results show that the hardware resource consumption in a VS is about 27% of that in an OFS. PMID:28328925

  10. A Model fot the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

    Antiochos, S. K.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.

    2011-01-01

    Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind also has large angular width, up to approx.60deg, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far from the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind, and magnetic field for a time period preceding the 2008 August 1 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere and propose further tests of the model. Key words: solar wind - Sun: corona - Sun: magnetic topology

  11. A Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

    Antiochos, S. K.; Mikić, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.

    2011-04-01

    Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind also has large angular width, up to ~60°, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far from the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind, and magnetic field for a time period preceding the 2008 August 1 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere and propose further tests of the model.

  12. Source modelling at the dawn of gravitational-wave astronomy

    Gerosa, Davide

    2016-09-01

    The age of gravitational-wave astronomy has begun. Gravitational waves are propagating spacetime perturbations ("ripples in the fabric of space-time") predicted by Einstein's theory of General Relativity. These signals propagate at the speed of light and are generated by powerful astrophysical events, such as the merger of two black holes and supernova explosions. The first detection of gravitational waves was performed in 2015 with the LIGO interferometers. This constitutes a tremendous breakthrough in fundamental physics and astronomy: it is not only the first direct detection of such elusive signals, but also the first irrefutable observation of a black-hole binary system. The future of gravitational-wave astronomy is bright and loud: the LIGO experiments will soon be joined by a network of ground-based interferometers; the space mission eLISA has now been fully approved by the European Space Agency with a proof-of-concept mission called LISA Pathfinder launched in 2015. Gravitational-wave observations will provide unprecedented tests of gravity as well as a qualitatively new window on the Universe. Careful theoretical modelling of the astrophysical sources of gravitational-waves is crucial to maximize the scientific outcome of the detectors. In this Thesis, we present several advances on gravitational-wave source modelling, studying in particular: (i) the precessional dynamics of spinning black-hole binaries; (ii) the astrophysical consequences of black-hole recoils; and (iii) the formation of compact objects in the framework of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. All these phenomena are deeply characterized by a continuous interplay between General Relativity and astrophysics: despite being a truly relativistic messenger, gravitational waves encode details of the astrophysical formation and evolution processes of their sources. We work out signatures and predictions to extract such information from current and future observations. At the dawn of a revolutionary

  13. Self-consistent modeling of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources

    Girard, A.; Hitz, D.; Melin, G.; Serebrennikov, K.; Lecot, C.

    2004-01-01

    In order to predict the performances of electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS), it is necessary to perfectly model the different parts of these sources: (i) magnetic configuration; (ii) plasma characteristics; (iii) extraction system. The magnetic configuration is easily calculated via commercial codes; different codes also simulate the ion extraction, either in two dimension, or even in three dimension (to take into account the shape of the plasma at the extraction influenced by the hexapole). However the characteristics of the plasma are not always mastered. This article describes the self-consistent modeling of ECRIS: we have developed a code which takes into account the most important construction parameters: the size of the plasma (length, diameter), the mirror ratio and axial magnetic profile, whether a biased probe is installed or not. These input parameters are used to feed a self-consistent code, which calculates the characteristics of the plasma: electron density and energy, charge state distribution, plasma potential. The code is briefly described, and some of its most interesting results are presented. Comparisons are made between the calculations and the results obtained experimentally

  14. Self-consistent modeling of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources

    Girard, A.; Hitz, D.; Melin, G.; Serebrennikov, K.; Lécot, C.

    2004-05-01

    In order to predict the performances of electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS), it is necessary to perfectly model the different parts of these sources: (i) magnetic configuration; (ii) plasma characteristics; (iii) extraction system. The magnetic configuration is easily calculated via commercial codes; different codes also simulate the ion extraction, either in two dimension, or even in three dimension (to take into account the shape of the plasma at the extraction influenced by the hexapole). However the characteristics of the plasma are not always mastered. This article describes the self-consistent modeling of ECRIS: we have developed a code which takes into account the most important construction parameters: the size of the plasma (length, diameter), the mirror ratio and axial magnetic profile, whether a biased probe is installed or not. These input parameters are used to feed a self-consistent code, which calculates the characteristics of the plasma: electron density and energy, charge state distribution, plasma potential. The code is briefly described, and some of its most interesting results are presented. Comparisons are made between the calculations and the results obtained experimentally.

  15. Modeling and simulation of RF photoinjectors for coherent light sources

    Chen, Y.; Krasilnikov, M.; Stephan, F.; Gjonaj, E.; Weiland, T.; Dohlus, M.

    2018-05-01

    We propose a three-dimensional fully electromagnetic numerical approach for the simulation of RF photoinjectors for coherent light sources. The basic idea consists in incorporating a self-consistent photoemission model within a particle tracking code. The generation of electron beams in the injector is determined by the quantum efficiency (QE) of the cathode, the intensity profile of the driving laser as well as by the accelerating field and magnetic focusing conditions in the gun. The total charge emitted during an emission cycle can be limited by the space charge field at the cathode. Furthermore, the time and space dependent electromagnetic field at the cathode may induce a transient modulation of the QE due to surface barrier reduction of the emitting layer. In our modeling approach, all these effects are taken into account. The beam particles are generated dynamically according to the local QE of the cathode and the time dependent laser intensity profile. For the beam dynamics, a tracking code based on the Lienard-Wiechert retarded field formalism is employed. This code provides the single particle trajectories as well as the transient space charge field distribution at the cathode. As an application, the PITZ injector is considered. Extensive electron bunch emission simulations are carried out for different operation conditions of the injector, in the source limited as well as in the space charge limited emission regime. In both cases, fairly good agreement between measurements and simulations is obtained.

  16. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    Matthieu Jacobs

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1 or with a resting stage (M2, a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5, models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3 or with (M4 inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6. For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h. Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10% and had good imprecision (<30%. However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  17. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system.

    Huang, Pu; Feldman, Maximilian; Schroder, Stephan; Bahri, Bochra A; Diao, Xianmin; Zhi, Hui; Estep, Matt; Baxter, Ivan; Devos, Katrien M; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

    2014-10-01

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new model system for C4 grasses and bioenergy crops, due to its rapid life cycle, large amount of seed production and small diploid genome, among other characters. However, remarkably little is known about the genetic diversity in natural populations of this species. In this study, we survey the genetic diversity of a worldwide sample of more than 200 S. viridis accessions, using the genotyping-by-sequencing technique. Two distinct genetic groups in S. viridis and a third group resembling S. italica were identified, with considerable admixture among the three groups. We find the genetic variation of North American S. viridis correlates with both geography and climate and is representative of the total genetic diversity in this species. This pattern may reflect several introduction/dispersal events of S. viridis into North America. We also modelled demographic history and show signal of recent population decline in one subgroup. Finally, we show linkage disequilibrium decay is rapid (<45 kb) in our total sample and slow in genetic subgroups. These results together provide an in-depth understanding of the pattern of genetic diversity of this new model species on a broad geographic scale. They also provide key guidelines for on-going and future work including germplasm preservation, local adaptation, crossing designs and genomewide association studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  19. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  20. Towards a Unified Source-Propagation Model of Cosmic Rays

    Taylor, M.; Molla, M.

    2010-07-01

    It is well known that the cosmic ray energy spectrum is multifractal with the analysis of cosmic ray fluxes as a function of energy revealing a first “knee” slightly below 1016 eV, a second knee slightly below 1018 eV and an “ankle” close to 1019 eV. The behaviour of the highest energy cosmic rays around and above the ankle is still a mystery and precludes the development of a unified source-propagation model of cosmic rays from their source origin to Earth. A variety of acceleration and propagation mechanisms have been proposed to explain different parts of the spectrum the most famous of course being Fermi acceleration in magnetised turbulent plasmas (Fermi 1949). Many others have been proposd for energies at and below the first knee (Peters & Cimento (1961); Lagage & Cesarsky (1983); Drury et al. (1984); Wdowczyk & Wolfendale (1984); Ptuskin et al. (1993); Dova et al. (0000); Horandel et al. (2002); Axford (1991)) as well as at higher energies between the first knee and the ankle (Nagano & Watson (2000); Bhattacharjee & Sigl (2000); Malkov & Drury (2001)). The recent fit of most of the cosmic ray spectrum up to the ankle using non-extensive statistical mechanics (NESM) (Tsallis et al. (2003)) provides what may be the strongest evidence for a source-propagation system deviating significantly from Boltmann statistics. As Tsallis has shown (Tsallis et al. (2003)), the knees appear as crossovers between two fractal-like thermal regimes. In this work, we have developed a generalisation of the second order NESM model (Tsallis et al. (2003)) to higher orders and we have fit the complete spectrum including the ankle with third order NESM. We find that, towards the GDZ limit, a new mechanism comes into play. Surprisingly it also presents as a modulation akin to that in our own local neighbourhood of cosmic rays emitted by the sun. We propose that this is due to modulation at the source and is possibly due to processes in the shell of the originating supernova. We

  1. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  2. Model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population

    Firdausi, F. Z.; Nuraini, N.

    2016-04-01

    Palm oil is a vital commodity to the economy of Indonesia. The area of oil palm plantations in Indonesia has increased from year to year. However, the effectiveness of palm oil production is reduced by pest infestation. One of the pest which often infests oil palm plantations is nettle caterpillar. The pest control used in this study is biological control, viz. biological agents given to oil palm trees. This paper describes a mathematical model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population. The two infectious diseases arise due to two biological agents, namely Bacillus thuringiensis bacterium and parasite which usually attack nettle caterpillars. The derivation of the model constructed in this paper is obtained from ordinary differential equations without time delay. The equilibrium points are analyzed. Two of three equilibrium points are stable if the Routh-Hurwitz criteria are fulfilled. In addition, this paper also presents the numerical simulation of the model which has been constructed.

  3. Modelling RF sources using 2-D PIC codes

    Eppley, K.R.

    1993-03-01

    In recent years, many types of RF sources have been successfully modelled using 2-D PIC codes. Both cross field devices (magnetrons, cross field amplifiers, etc.) and pencil beam devices (klystrons, gyrotrons, TWT'S, lasertrons, etc.) have been simulated. All these devices involve the interaction of an electron beam with an RF circuit. For many applications, the RF structure may be approximated by an equivalent circuit, which appears in the simulation as a boundary condition on the electric field ( port approximation''). The drive term for the circuit is calculated from the energy transfer between beam and field in the drift space. For some applications it may be necessary to model the actual geometry of the structure, although this is more expensive. One problem not entirely solved is how to accurately model in 2-D the coupling to an external waveguide. Frequently this is approximated by a radial transmission line, but this sometimes yields incorrect results. We also discuss issues in modelling the cathode and injecting the beam into the PIC simulation.

  4. Modelling RF sources using 2-D PIC codes

    Eppley, K.R.

    1993-03-01

    In recent years, many types of RF sources have been successfully modelled using 2-D PIC codes. Both cross field devices (magnetrons, cross field amplifiers, etc.) and pencil beam devices (klystrons, gyrotrons, TWT`S, lasertrons, etc.) have been simulated. All these devices involve the interaction of an electron beam with an RF circuit. For many applications, the RF structure may be approximated by an equivalent circuit, which appears in the simulation as a boundary condition on the electric field (``port approximation``). The drive term for the circuit is calculated from the energy transfer between beam and field in the drift space. For some applications it may be necessary to model the actual geometry of the structure, although this is more expensive. One problem not entirely solved is how to accurately model in 2-D the coupling to an external waveguide. Frequently this is approximated by a radial transmission line, but this sometimes yields incorrect results. We also discuss issues in modelling the cathode and injecting the beam into the PIC simulation.

  5. Modelling RF sources using 2-D PIC codes

    Eppley, K.R.

    1993-03-01

    In recent years, many types of RF sources have been successfully modelled using 2-D PIC codes. Both cross field devices (magnetrons, cross field amplifiers, etc.) and pencil beam devices (klystrons, gyrotrons, TWT'S, lasertrons, etc.) have been simulated. All these devices involve the interaction of an electron beam with an RF circuit. For many applications, the RF structure may be approximated by an equivalent circuit, which appears in the simulation as a boundary condition on the electric field (''port approximation''). The drive term for the circuit is calculated from the energy transfer between beam and field in the drift space. For some applications it may be necessary to model the actual geometry of the structure, although this is more expensive. One problem not entirely solved is how to accurately model in 2-D the coupling to an external waveguide. Frequently this is approximated by a radial transmission line, but this sometimes yields incorrect results. We also discuss issues in modelling the cathode and injecting the beam into the PIC simulation

  6. Fast temperature optimization of multi-source hyperthermia applicators with reduced-order modeling of 'virtual sources'

    Cheng, K-S; Stakhursky, Vadim; Craciunescu, Oana I; Stauffer, Paul; Dewhirst, Mark; Das, Shiva K

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this work is to build the foundation for facilitating real-time magnetic resonance image guided patient treatment for heating systems with a large number of physical sources (e.g. antennas). Achieving this goal requires knowledge of how the temperature distribution will be affected by changing each source individually, which requires time expenditure on the order of the square of the number of sources. To reduce computation time, we propose a model reduction approach that combines a smaller number of predefined source configurations (fewer than the number of actual sources) that are most likely to heat tumor. The source configurations consist of magnitude and phase source excitation values for each actual source and may be computed from a CT scan based plan or a simplified generic model of the corresponding patient anatomy. Each pre-calculated source configuration is considered a 'virtual source'. We assume that the actual best source settings can be represented effectively as weighted combinations of the virtual sources. In the context of optimization, each source configuration is treated equivalently to one physical source. This model reduction approach is tested on a patient upper-leg tumor model (with and without temperature-dependent perfusion), heated using a 140 MHz ten-antenna cylindrical mini-annular phased array. Numerical simulations demonstrate that using only a few pre-defined source configurations can achieve temperature distributions that are comparable to those from full optimizations using all physical sources. The method yields close to optimal temperature distributions when using source configurations determined from a simplified model of the tumor, even when tumor position is erroneously assumed to be ∼2.0 cm away from the actual position as often happens in practical clinical application of pre-treatment planning. The method also appears to be robust under conditions of changing, nonlinear, temperature-dependent perfusion. The

  7. Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

  8. Estimating average alcohol consumption in the population using multiple sources: the case of Spain.

    Sordo, Luis; Barrio, Gregorio; Bravo, María J; Villalbí, Joan R; Espelt, Albert; Neira, Montserrat; Regidor, Enrique

    2016-01-01

    National estimates on per capita alcohol consumption are provided regularly by various sources and may have validity problems, so corrections are needed for monitoring and assessment purposes. Our objectives were to compare different alcohol availability estimates for Spain, to build the best estimate (actual consumption), characterize its time trend during 2001-2011, and quantify the extent to which other estimates (coverage) approximated actual consumption. Estimates were: alcohol availability from the Spanish Tax Agency (Tax Agency availability), World Health Organization (WHO availability) and other international agencies, self-reported purchases from the Spanish Food Consumption Panel, and self-reported consumption from population surveys. Analyses included calculating: between-agency discrepancy in availability, multisource availability (correcting Tax Agency availability by underestimation of wine and cider), actual consumption (adjusting multisource availability by unrecorded alcohol consumption/purchases and alcohol losses), and coverage of selected estimates. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Time trends were characterized by joinpoint regression. Between-agency discrepancy in alcohol availability remained high in 2011, mainly because of wine and spirits, although some decrease was observed during the study period. The actual consumption was 9.5 l of pure alcohol/person-year in 2011, decreasing 2.3 % annually, mainly due to wine and spirits. 2011 coverage of WHO availability, Tax Agency availability, self-reported purchases, and self-reported consumption was 99.5, 99.5, 66.3, and 28.0 %, respectively, generally with downward trends (last three estimates, especially self-reported consumption). The multisource availability overestimated actual consumption by 12.3 %, mainly due to tourism imbalance. Spanish estimates of per capita alcohol consumption show considerable weaknesses. Using uncorrected estimates, especially self-reported consumption, for

  9. Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of a Desmopressin Oral Lyophilisate in Growing Piglets as a Model for the Pediatric Population

    Elke Gasthuys

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Desmopressin is used to treat primary nocturnal enuresis in children. Over the years, various formulations of desmopressin were commercialized of which the sublingual melt tablet is preferred in the pediatric population, despite the lack of full PK studies in this population. A full PK study was performed in growing conventional piglets to evaluate if this juvenile animal model can provide supplementary information to complement the information gap in the pediatric population. A desmopressin sublingual melt tablet (120 μg was administered to 32 male piglets aged 8 days, 4 weeks, 7 weeks, and 6 months (each group n = 8. Population PK (pop-PK analysis was performed to derive the PK parameters, the between- and within-subject variabilities and the effects of covariates. Desmopressin demonstrated two-compartmental PK, with a dual, sequential absorption process, and linear elimination. Body weight was the only significant covariate on clearance and on apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment. In human pediatric trials, no double peak in the absorption phase was observed in the plasma concentration-time curves, possibly due to the sparse sampling strategy applied in those pediatric studies. Therefore, it is recommended to perform additional studies, based on the sampling protocol applied in the current study.

  10. Modeling multi-source flooding disaster and developing simulation framework in Delta

    Liu, Y.; Cui, X.; Zhang, W.

    2016-12-01

    Most Delta regions of the world are densely populated and with advanced economies. However, due to impact of the multi-source flooding (upstream flood, rainstorm waterlogging, storm surge flood), the Delta regions is very vulnerable. The academic circles attach great importance to the multi-source flooding disaster in these areas. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in south China is selected as the research area. Based on analysis of natural and environmental characteristics data of the Delta urban agglomeration(remote sensing data, land use data, topographic map, etc.), hydrological monitoring data, research of the uneven distribution and process of regional rainfall, the relationship between the underlying surface and the parameters of runoff, effect of flood storage pattern, we use an automatic or semi-automatic method for dividing spatial units to reflect the runoff characteristics in urban agglomeration, and develop an Multi-model Ensemble System in changing environment, including urban hydrologic model, parallel computational 1D&2D hydrodynamic model, storm surge forecast model and other professional models, the system will have the abilities like real-time setting a variety of boundary conditions, fast and real-time calculation, dynamic presentation of results, powerful statistical analysis function. The model could be optimized and improved by a variety of verification methods. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471427); Special Basic Research Key Fund for Central Public Scientific Research Institutes.

  11. Modelling the radioecological transfer of radiocaesium to three Swedish populations

    Raeaef, C.L.

    2005-01-01

    UNSCEAR has presented a terrestrial transfer model for predicting the annual average concentrations of radionuclides in important diet components and in humans based on the annual ground deposition from atmospheric fallout. The model is composed of three components, the principal component representing the direct contamination of fodder and crops, and the two remaining ones reflecting delayed transfer from previous fallout accumulated in soils. The model is intended to be used for protracted deposition of radionuclides and has been applied to observed time-patterns of 137 Cs body burdens in three different Swedish populations subjected to transfer from continuous nuclear weapons fallout during the 1960s and 1970s. The results show that the best agreement with observed body burden data is obtained by applying an effective ecological half-time, T eco,eff , for nuclear weapons fallout 137 Cs of 0.8 years for urban individuals in the South of Sweden, 2 years for urbans living in the Stockholm area and 4 years for reindeer herders in the middle of Sweden. When compared with the ecological half-times observed in the urban population after the Chernobyl fallout these values appear to be shorter

  12. Modelling biological invasions: Individual to population scales at interfaces

    Belmonte-Beitia, J.

    2013-10-01

    Extracting the population level behaviour of biological systems from that of the individual is critical in understanding dynamics across multiple scales and thus has been the subject of numerous investigations. Here, the influence of spatial heterogeneity in such contexts is explored for interfaces with a separation of the length scales characterising the individual and the interface, a situation that can arise in applications involving cellular modelling. As an illustrative example, we consider cell movement between white and grey matter in the brain which may be relevant in considering the invasive dynamics of glioma. We show that while one can safely neglect intrinsic noise, at least when considering glioma cell invasion, profound differences in population behaviours emerge in the presence of interfaces with only subtle alterations in the dynamics at the individual level. Transport driven by local cell sensing generates predictions of cell accumulations along interfaces where cell motility changes. This behaviour is not predicted with the commonly used Fickian diffusion transport model, but can be extracted from preliminary observations of specific cell lines in recent, novel, cryo-imaging. Consequently, these findings suggest a need to consider the impact of individual behaviour, spatial heterogeneity and especially interfaces in experimental and modelling frameworks of cellular dynamics, for instance in the characterisation of glioma cell motility. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  14. Modelling biological invasions: Individual to population scales at interfaces

    Belmonte-Beitia, J.; Woolley, T.E.; Scott, J.G.; Maini, P.K.; Gaffney, E.A.

    2013-01-01

    Extracting the population level behaviour of biological systems from that of the individual is critical in understanding dynamics across multiple scales and thus has been the subject of numerous investigations. Here, the influence of spatial heterogeneity in such contexts is explored for interfaces with a separation of the length scales characterising the individual and the interface, a situation that can arise in applications involving cellular modelling. As an illustrative example, we consider cell movement between white and grey matter in the brain which may be relevant in considering the invasive dynamics of glioma. We show that while one can safely neglect intrinsic noise, at least when considering glioma cell invasion, profound differences in population behaviours emerge in the presence of interfaces with only subtle alterations in the dynamics at the individual level. Transport driven by local cell sensing generates predictions of cell accumulations along interfaces where cell motility changes. This behaviour is not predicted with the commonly used Fickian diffusion transport model, but can be extracted from preliminary observations of specific cell lines in recent, novel, cryo-imaging. Consequently, these findings suggest a need to consider the impact of individual behaviour, spatial heterogeneity and especially interfaces in experimental and modelling frameworks of cellular dynamics, for instance in the characterisation of glioma cell motility. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT MODELING USING THE BASINS NON-POINT SOURCE MODEL

    The Non-Point Source Model (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran, or HSPF) within the EPA Office of Water's BASINS watershed modeling system was used to simulate streamflow and total suspended solids within Contentnea Creek, North Carolina, which is a tributary of the Neuse Rive...

  16. Hydrodynamics of Bubble Columns: Turbulence and Population Balance Model

    Camila Braga Vieira

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an in-depth numerical analysis on the hydrodynamics of a bubble column. As in previous works on the subject, the focus here is on three important parameters characterizing the flow: interfacial forces, turbulence and inlet superficial Gas Velocity (UG. The bubble size distribution is taken into account by the use of the Quadrature Method of Moments (QMOM model in a two-phase Euler-Euler approach using the open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD code OpenFOAM (Open Field Operation and Manipulation. The interfacial forces accounted for in all the simulations presented here are drag, lift and virtual mass. For the turbulence analysis in the water phase, three versions of the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS k-ε turbulence model are examined: namely, the standard, modified and mixture variants. The lift force proves to be of major importance for a trustworthy prediction of the gas volume fraction profiles for all the (superficial gas velocities tested. Concerning the turbulence, the mixture k-ε model is seen to provide higher values of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in comparison to the other models, and this clearly affects the prediction of the gas volume fraction in the bulk region, and the bubble-size distribution. In general, the modified k-ε model proves to be a good compromise between modeling simplicity and accuracy in the study of bubble columns of the kind undertaken here.

  17. Partitioning detectability components in populations subject to within-season temporary emigration using binomial mixture models.

    Katherine M O'Donnell

    Full Text Available Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model's potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3-5 surveys each spring and fall 2010-2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling, while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling. By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and

  18. The population of Indonesia : regional demographic scenarios using a multiregional method and multiple data sources

    Muhidin, Salahudin

    2002-01-01

    This study attempts to contribute on the understanding of regional population dynamics in Indonesia. It outlines a detailed analysis of the changes in regional demographic variables during the last three decades. It provides an assessment of the past population projections, as well as the advantages

  19. An evaluation of the methods of determining excited state population distributions from sputtering sources

    Snowdon, K.J.; Andresen, B.; Veje, E.

    1978-01-01

    The method of calculating relative initial level populations of excited states of sputtered atoms is developed in principle and compared with those in current use. The reason that the latter, although mathematically different, have generally led to similar population distributions is outlined. (Auth.)

  20. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Van Luik, A.E.; Williford, R.E.; Doctor, P.G.; Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA; Roy F. Weston, Inc./Rogers and Assoc. Engineering Corp., Rockville, MD)

    1984-01-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with Federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilitistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative released from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  1. Conceptual model for deriving the repository source term

    Alexander, D.H.; Apted, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Doctor, P.G.; Williford, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

    1984-11-01

    Part of a strategy for evaluating the compliance of geologic repositories with federal regulations is a modeling approach that would provide realistic release estimates for a particular configuration of the engineered-barrier system. The objective is to avoid worst-case bounding assumptions that are physically impossible or excessively conservative and to obtain probabilistic estimates of (1) the penetration time for metal barriers and (2) radionuclide-release rates for individually simulated waste packages after penetration has occurred. The conceptual model described in this paper will assume that release rates are explicitly related to such time-dependent processes as mass transfer, dissolution and precipitation, radionuclide decay, and variations in the geochemical environment. The conceptual model will take into account the reduction in the rates of waste-form dissolution and metal corrosion due to a buildup of chemical reaction products. The sorptive properties of the metal-barrier corrosion products in proximity to the waste form surface will also be included. Cumulative releases from the engineered-barrier system will be calculated by summing the releases from a probabilistically generated population of individual waste packages. 14 refs., 7 figs

  2. Modeling of EUV emission from xenon and tin plasma sources for nanolithography

    Poirier, M. [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France)]. E-mail: michel.poirier@cea.fr; Blenski, T. [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Gaufridy de Dortan, F. de [Service Photons, Atomes, et Molecules, CEA Saclay, bat. 522, F91191 Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Gilleron, F. [CEA-DAM, F91680 Bruyeres-le-Chatel (France)

    2006-05-15

    Over the last decade there has been a major effort devoted to the development of efficient extreme UV sources designed for nanolithography, operating in the 13.5-nm range. Possible sources include laser-produced plasmas and discharge-produced plasmas. This paper, devoted to the modeling of such emission, emphasizes the atomic physics effects and particularly the effects of configuration interaction. Two types of theoretical approaches are presented, one involving the detailed computation with the parametric potential code HULLAC, the other based on the superconfiguration code SCO. Computations of emission spectra in xenon and tin are presented. The possible influence of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects is investigated using populations given by the simple collisional-radiative formulas from Colombant and Tonon. Convergence to LTE is analyzed in the tin case.

  3. Modelling and optimisation of fs laser-produced Kα sources

    Gibbon, P.; Masek, M.; Teubner, U.; Lu, W.; Nicoul, M.; Shymanovich, U.; Tarasevitch, A.; Zhou, P.; Sokolowski-Tinten, K.; Linde, D. von der

    2009-01-01

    Recent theoretical and numerical studies of laser-driven femtosecond K α sources are presented, aimed at understanding a recent experimental campaign to optimize emission from thin coating targets. Particular attention is given to control over the laser-plasma interaction conditions defined by the interplay between a controlled prepulse and the angle of incidence. It is found that the x-ray efficiency for poor-contrast laser systems in which a large preplasma is suspected can be enhanced by using a near-normal incidence geometry even at high laser intensities. With high laser contrast, similar efficiencies can be achieved by going to larger incidence angles, but only at the expense of larger X-ray spot size. New developments in three-dimensional modelling are also reported with the goal of handling interactions with geometrically complex targets and finite resistivity. (orig.)

  4. Modeling in control of the Advanced Light Source

    Bengtsson, J.; Forest, E.; Nishimura, H.; Schachinger, L.

    1991-05-01

    A software system for control of accelerator physics parameters of the Advanced Light Source (ALS) is being designed and implemented at LBL. Some of the parameters we wish to control are tunes, chromaticities, and closed orbit distortions as well as linear lattice distortions and, possibly, amplitude- and momentum-dependent tune shifts. In all our applications, the goal is to allow the user to adjust physics parameters of the machine, instead of turning knobs that control magnets directly. This control will take place via a highly graphical user interface, with both a model appropriate to the application and any correction algorithm running alongside as separate processes. Many of these applications will run on a Unix workstation, separate from the controls system, but communicating with the hardware database via Remote Procedure Calls (RPCs)

  5. Invasive cyprinid fish in Europe originate from the single introduction of an admixed source population followed by a complex pattern of spread.

    Andrea Simon

    Full Text Available The Asian cyprinid fish, the topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva, was introduced into Europe in the 1960s. A highly invasive freshwater fish, it is currently found in at least 32 countries outside its native range. Here we analyse a 700 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to examine different models of colonisation and spread within the invasive range, and to investigate the factors that may have contributed to their invasion success. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of the introduced populations from continental Europe was higher than that of the native populations, although two recently introduced populations from the British Isles showed low levels of variability. Based on coalescent theory, all introduced and some native populations showed a relative excess of nucleotide diversity compared to haplotype diversity. This suggests that these populations are not in mutation-drift equilibrium, but rather that the relative inflated level of nucleotide diversity is consistent with recent admixture. This study elucidates the colonisation patterns of P. parva in Europe and provides an evolutionary framework of their invasion. It supports the hypothesis that their European colonisation was initiated by their introduction to a single location or small geographic area with subsequent complex pattern of spread including both long distance and stepping-stone dispersal. Furthermore, it was preceded by, or associated with, the admixture of genetically diverse source populations that may have augmented its invasive-potential.

  6. Crowd Sourcing for Challenging Technical Problems and Business Model

    Davis, Jeffrey R.; Richard, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Crowd sourcing may be defined as the act of outsourcing tasks that are traditionally performed by an employee or contractor to an undefined, generally large group of people or community (a crowd) in the form of an open call. The open call may be issued by an organization wishing to find a solution to a particular problem or complete a task, or by an open innovation service provider on behalf of that organization. In 2008, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD), with the support of Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering, established and implemented pilot projects in open innovation (crowd sourcing) to determine if these new internet-based platforms could indeed find solutions to difficult technical challenges. These unsolved technical problems were converted to problem statements, also called "Challenges" or "Technical Needs" by the various open innovation service providers, and were then posted externally to seek solutions. In addition, an open call was issued internally to NASA employees Agency wide (10 Field Centers and NASA HQ) using an open innovation service provider crowd sourcing platform to post NASA challenges from each Center for the others to propose solutions). From 2008 to 2010, the SLSD issued 34 challenges, 14 externally and 20 internally. The 14 external problems or challenges were posted through three different vendors: InnoCentive, Yet2.com and TopCoder. The 20 internal challenges were conducted using the InnoCentive crowd sourcing platform designed for internal use by an organization. This platform was customized for NASA use and promoted as NASA@Work. The results were significant. Of the seven InnoCentive external challenges, two full and five partial awards were made in complex technical areas such as predicting solar flares and long-duration food packaging. Similarly, the TopCoder challenge yielded an optimization algorithm for designing a lunar medical kit. The Yet2.com challenges yielded many new industry and academic contacts in bone

  7. Atmospheric dispersion and inverse modelling for the reconstruction of accidental sources of pollutants

    Winiarek, Victor

    2014-01-01

    Uncontrolled releases of pollutant in the atmosphere may be the consequence of various situations: accidents, for instance leaks or explosions in an industrial plant, or terrorist attacks such as biological bombs, especially in urban areas. In the event of such situations, authorities' objectives are various: predict the contaminated zones to apply first countermeasures such as evacuation of concerned population; determine the source location; assess the long-term polluted areas, for instance by deposition of persistent pollutants in the soil. To achieve these objectives, numerical models can be used to model the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We will first present the different processes that govern the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, then the different numerical models that are commonly used in this context. The choice between these models mainly depends of the scale and the details one seeks to take into account. We will then present several inverse modeling methods to estimate the emission as well as statistical methods to estimate prior errors, to which the inversion is very sensitive. Several case studies are presented, using synthetic data as well as real data such as the estimation of source terms from the Fukushima accident in March 2011. From our results, we estimate the Cesium-137 emission to be between 12 and 19 PBq with a standard deviation between 15 and 65% and the Iodine-131 emission to be between 190 and 380 PBq with a standard deviation between 5 and 10%. Concerning the localization of an unknown source of pollutant, two strategies can be considered. On one hand parametric methods use a limited number of parameters to characterize the source term to be reconstructed. To do so, strong assumptions are made on the nature of the source. The inverse problem is hence to estimate these parameters. On the other hand nonparametric methods attempt to reconstruct a full emission field. Several parametric and nonparametric methods are

  8. Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review.

    Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

    2017-07-28

    Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural.

  9. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  10. Mathematical model of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti mosquito population

    Aldila, D.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2014-03-01

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Dengue became major public concern in these countries due to the unavailability of vaccine or drugs for dengue disease in the market. Hence, the only way to control the spread of DF and DHF is by controlling the vectors carrying the disease, for instance with fumigation, temephos or genetic manipulation. Many previous studies conclude that Aedes aegypti may develop resistance to many kind of insecticide, including temephos. Mathematical model for transmission of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti population is discussed in this paper. Nontrivial equilibrium point of the system and the corresponding existence are shown analytically. The model analysis have shown epidemiological trends condition that permits the coexistence of nontrivial equilibrium is given analytically. Numerical results are given to show parameter sensitivity and some cases of worsening effect values for illustrating possible conditions in the field.

  11. Development of an emissions inventory model for mobile sources

    Reynolds, A W; Broderick, B M [Trinity College, Dublin (Ireland). Dept. of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering

    2000-07-01

    Traffic represents one of the largest sources of primary air pollutants in urban areas. As a consequence, numerous abatement strategies are being pursued to decrease the ambient concentrations of a wide range of pollutants. A mutual characteristic of most of these strategies is a requirement for accurate data on both the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions to air in the form of an atmospheric emissions inventory database. In the case of traffic pollution, such an inventory must be compiled using activity statistics and emission factors for a wide range of vehicle types. The majority of inventories are compiled using 'passive' data from either surveys or transportation models and by their very nature tend to be out-of-date by the time they are compiled. Current trends are towards integrating urban traffic control systems and assessments of the environmental effects of motor vehicles. In this paper. a methodology for estimating emissions from mobile sources using real-time data is described. This methodology is used to calculate emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide (CO). volatile organic compounds (VOC), particulate matter less than 10 {mu}m aerodynamic diameter (PM{sub 10}), 1,3-butadiene (C{sub 4}H{sub 6}) and benzene (C{sub 6}H{sub 6}) at a test junction in Dublin. Traffic data, which are required on a street-by-street basis, is obtained from induction loops and closed circuit televisions (CCTV) as well as statistical data. The observed traffic data are compared to simulated data from a travel demand model. As a test case, an emissions inventory is compiled for a heavily trafficked signalized junction in an urban environment using the measured data. In order that the model may be validated, the predicted emissions are employed in a dispersion model along with local meteorological conditions and site geometry. The resultant pollutant concentrations are compared to average ambient kerbside conditions

  12. Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

    Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

    2014-01-01

    Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

  13. A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

    Gompert, Zachariah

    2016-01-01

    Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20) SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure), particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur) and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among chromosomes in the Uyghur

  14. A Continuous Correlated Beta Process Model for Genetic Ancestry in Admixed Populations.

    Zachariah Gompert

    Full Text Available Admixture and recombination create populations and genomes with genetic ancestry from multiple source populations. Analyses of genetic ancestry in admixed populations are relevant for trait and disease mapping, studies of speciation, and conservation efforts. Consequently, many methods have been developed to infer genome-average ancestry and to deconvolute ancestry into continuous local ancestry blocks or tracts within individuals. Current methods for local ancestry inference perform well when admixture occurred recently or hybridization is ongoing, or when admixture occurred in the distant past such that local ancestry blocks have fixed in the admixed population. However, methods to infer local ancestry frequencies in isolated admixed populations still segregating for ancestry do not exist. In the current paper, I develop and test a continuous correlated beta process model to fill this analytical gap. The method explicitly models autocorrelations in ancestry frequencies at the population-level and uses discriminant analysis of SNP windows to take advantage of ancestry blocks within individuals. Analyses of simulated data sets show that the method is generally accurate such that ancestry frequency estimates exhibited low root-mean-square error and were highly correlated with the true values, particularly when large (±10 or ±20 SNP windows were used. Along these lines, the proposed method outperformed post hoc inference of ancestry frequencies from a traditional hidden Markov model (i.e., the linkage model in structure, particularly when admixture occurred more distantly in the past with little on-going gene flow or was followed by natural selection. The reliability and utility of the method was further assessed by analyzing genetic ancestry in an admixed human population (Uyghur and three populations from a hybrid zone between Mus domesticus and M. musculus. Considerable variation in ancestry frequencies was detected within and among

  15. Modeling Sources of Teaching Self-Efficacy for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Graduate Teaching Assistants

    DeChenne, Sue Ellen; Koziol, Natalie; Needham, Mark; Enochs, Larry

    2015-01-01

    Graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have a large impact on undergraduate instruction but are often poorly prepared to teach. Teaching self-efficacy, an instructor’s belief in his or her ability to teach specific student populations a specific subject, is an important predictor of teaching skill and student achievement. A model of sources of teaching self-efficacy is developed from the GTA literature. This model indicates that teaching experience, departmental teaching climate (including peer and supervisor relationships), and GTA professional development (PD) can act as sources of teaching self-efficacy. The model is pilot tested with 128 GTAs from nine different STEM departments at a midsized research university. Structural equation modeling reveals that K–12 teaching experience, hours and perceived quality of GTA PD, and perception of the departmental facilitating environment are significant factors that explain 32% of the variance in the teaching self-efficacy of STEM GTAs. This model highlights the important contributions of the departmental environment and GTA PD in the development of teaching self-efficacy for STEM GTAs. PMID:26250562

  16. Modeling Sources of Teaching Self-Efficacy for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Graduate Teaching Assistants.

    DeChenne, Sue Ellen; Koziol, Natalie; Needham, Mark; Enochs, Larry

    2015-01-01

    Graduate teaching assistants (GTAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have a large impact on undergraduate instruction but are often poorly prepared to teach. Teaching self-efficacy, an instructor's belief in his or her ability to teach specific student populations a specific subject, is an important predictor of teaching skill and student achievement. A model of sources of teaching self-efficacy is developed from the GTA literature. This model indicates that teaching experience, departmental teaching climate (including peer and supervisor relationships), and GTA professional development (PD) can act as sources of teaching self-efficacy. The model is pilot tested with 128 GTAs from nine different STEM departments at a midsized research university. Structural equation modeling reveals that K-12 teaching experience, hours and perceived quality of GTA PD, and perception of the departmental facilitating environment are significant factors that explain 32% of the variance in the teaching self-efficacy of STEM GTAs. This model highlights the important contributions of the departmental environment and GTA PD in the development of teaching self-efficacy for STEM GTAs. © 2015 S. E. DeChenne et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2015 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

  17. Validation of an Eulerian population model for the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

    Alver, Morten Omholt; Broch, Ole Jacob; Melle, Webjørn; Bagøien, Espen; Slagstad, Dag

    2016-08-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is an important zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea, as a dominant food organism for pelagic fish larvae, and a potentially large source of marine lipids and proteins. Its position in the marine food web also makes it an important model species in assessing the risk posed by oil spills in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas. In this study, an Eulerian population model for C.finmarchicus, coupled to the physical and ecological model SINMOD, is presented. The model includes the full life cycle of C. finmarchicus with a representation of all developmental stages. The model has been validated against field measurements made in different areas of the Norwegian Sea in 1997 and 1998. The model displays geographical and temporal distributions of development stages that is in line with observed patterns. When comparing time series for selected regions, we see a high degree of variability both in the field samples and model output. On average, the model deviations are near half of the summed variability of the field data and model estimates. The model has applications within assessment of ecological production, and the potential for harvesting in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas, but in combination with other models, also for the assessment of ecological effects of oil spills and other types of pollution.

  18. Source term identification in atmospheric modelling via sparse optimization

    Adam, Lukas; Branda, Martin; Hamburger, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Inverse modelling plays an important role in identifying the amount of harmful substances released into atmosphere during major incidents such as power plant accidents or volcano eruptions. Another possible application of inverse modelling lies in the monitoring the CO2 emission limits where only observations at certain places are available and the task is to estimate the total releases at given locations. This gives rise to minimizing the discrepancy between the observations and the model predictions. There are two standard ways of solving such problems. In the first one, this discrepancy is regularized by adding additional terms. Such terms may include Tikhonov regularization, distance from a priori information or a smoothing term. The resulting, usually quadratic, problem is then solved via standard optimization solvers. The second approach assumes that the error term has a (normal) distribution and makes use of Bayesian modelling to identify the source term. Instead of following the above-mentioned approaches, we utilize techniques from the field of compressive sensing. Such techniques look for a sparsest solution (solution with the smallest number of nonzeros) of a linear system, where a maximal allowed error term may be added to this system. Even though this field is a developed one with many possible solution techniques, most of them do not consider even the simplest constraints which are naturally present in atmospheric modelling. One of such examples is the nonnegativity of release amounts. We believe that the concept of a sparse solution is natural in both problems of identification of the source location and of the time process of the source release. In the first case, it is usually assumed that there are only few release points and the task is to find them. In the second case, the time window is usually much longer than the duration of the actual release. In both cases, the optimal solution should contain a large amount of zeros, giving rise to the

  19. Yunnan-III models for evolutionary population synthesis

    Zhang, F.; Li, L.; Han, Z.; Zhuang, Y.; Kang, X.

    2013-02-01

    We build the Yunnan-III evolutionary population synthesis (EPS) models by using the mesa stellar evolution code, BaSeL stellar spectra library and the initial mass functions (IMFs) of Kroupa and Salpeter, and present colours and integrated spectral energy distributions (ISEDs) of solar-metallicity stellar populations (SPs) in the range of 1 Myr to 15 Gyr. The main characteristic of the Yunnan-III EPS models is the usage of a set of self-consistent solar-metallicity stellar evolutionary tracks (the masses of stars are from 0.1 to 100 M⊙). This set of tracks is obtained by using the state-of-the-art mesa code. mesa code can evolve stellar models through thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase for low- and intermediate-mass stars. By comparisons, we confirm that the inclusion of TP-AGB stars makes the V - K, V - J and V - R colours of SPs redder and the infrared flux larger at ages log(t/yr) ≳ 7.6 [the differences reach the maximum at log(t/yr) ˜ 8.6, ˜0.5-0.2 mag for colours, approximately two times for K-band flux]. We also find that the colour-evolution trends of Model with-TPAGB at intermediate and large ages are similar to those from the starburst99 code, which employs the Padova-AGB stellar library, BaSeL spectral library and the Kroupa IMF. At last, we compare the colours with the other EPS models comprising TP-AGB stars (such as CB07, M05, V10 and POPSTAR), and find that the B - V colour agrees with each other but the V-K colour shows a larger discrepancy among these EPS models [˜1 mag when 8 ≲ log(t/yr) ≲ 9]. The stellar evolutionary tracks, isochrones, colours and ISEDs can be obtained on request from the first author or from our website (http://www1.ynao.ac.cn/~zhangfh/). Using the isochrones, you can build your EPS models. Now the format of stellar evolutionary tracks is the same as that in the starburst99 code; you can put them into the starburst99 code and get the SP's results. Moreover, the colours involving other passbands

  20. Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC.

    Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

    2013-11-06

    Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

  1. Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

    Parikh, Nidhi; Youssef, Mina; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen

    2013-11-01

    Large numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.

  2. Geospatial Modeling of Asthma Population in Relation to Air Pollution

    Kethireddy, Swatantra R.; Tchounwou, Paul B.; Young, John H.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Alhamdan, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    Current observations indicate that asthma is growing every year in the United States, specific reasons for this are not well understood. This study stems from an ongoing research effort to investigate the spatio-temporal behavior of asthma and its relatedness to air pollution. The association between environmental variables such as air quality and asthma related health issues over Mississippi State are investigated using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools and applications. Health data concerning asthma obtained from Mississippi State Department of Health (MSDH) for 9-year period of 2003-2011, and data of air pollutant concentrations (PM2.5) collected from USEPA web resources, and are analyzed geospatially to establish the impacts of air quality on human health specifically related to asthma. Disease mapping using geospatial techniques provides valuable insights into the spatial nature, variability, and association of asthma to air pollution. Asthma patient hospitalization data of Mississippi has been analyzed and mapped using quantitative Choropleth techniques in ArcGIS. Patients have been geocoded to their respective zip codes. Potential air pollutant sources of Interstate highways, Industries, and other land use data have been integrated in common geospatial platform to understand their adverse contribution on human health. Existing hospitals and emergency clinics are being injected into analysis to further understand their proximity and easy access to patient locations. At the current level of analysis and understanding, spatial distribution of Asthma is observed in the populations of Zip code regions in gulf coast, along the interstates of south, and in counties of Northeast Mississippi. It is also found that asthma is prevalent in most of the urban population. This GIS based project would be useful to make health risk assessment and provide information support to the administrators and decision makers for establishing satellite clinics in future.

  3. The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle

    Laaksonen, Pekka

    2011-01-01

    Laaksonen, Pekka The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle Jyväskylä: Jyväskylän yliopisto, 2011, 42 s. Tietojärjestelmätiede, kandidaatintutkielma Ohjaaja(t): Käkölä, Timo Tässä kandidaatintutkielmassa selvitettiin sitä, miten the eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers-mallin käytännöt (practices) ovat liittyneet tietä-myksenhallinnan neljään prosessiin: tiedon luominen, varastointi/noutaminen, jakamine...

  4. Model of contamination sources of electron for radiotherapy of beams of photons

    Gonzalez Infantes, W.; Lallena Rojo, A. M.; Anguiano Millan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Proposes a model of virtual sources of electrons, that allows to reproduce the sources to the input parameters of the representation of the patient. To compare performance in depth values and calculated profiles from the full simulation of the heads, with the calculated values using sources model, found that the model is capable of playing depth dose distributions and profiles. (Author)

  5. The Influence of Normalization Weight in Population Pharmacokinetic Covariate Models.

    Goulooze, Sebastiaan C; Völler, Swantje; Välitalo, Pyry A J; Calvier, Elisa A M; Aarons, Leon; Krekels, Elke H J; Knibbe, Catherijne A J

    2018-03-23

    In covariate (sub)models of population pharmacokinetic models, most covariates are normalized to the median value; however, for body weight, normalization to 70 kg or 1 kg is often applied. In this article, we illustrate the impact of normalization weight on the precision of population clearance (CL pop ) parameter estimates. The influence of normalization weight (70, 1 kg or median weight) on the precision of the CL pop estimate, expressed as relative standard error (RSE), was illustrated using data from a pharmacokinetic study in neonates with a median weight of 2.7 kg. In addition, a simulation study was performed to show the impact of normalization to 70 kg in pharmacokinetic studies with paediatric or obese patients. The RSE of the CL pop parameter estimate in the neonatal dataset was lowest with normalization to median weight (8.1%), compared with normalization to 1 kg (10.5%) or 70 kg (48.8%). Typical clearance (CL) predictions were independent of the normalization weight used. Simulations showed that the increase in RSE of the CL pop estimate with 70 kg normalization was highest in studies with a narrow weight range and a geometric mean weight away from 70 kg. When, instead of normalizing with median weight, a weight outside the observed range is used, the RSE of the CL pop estimate will be inflated, and should therefore not be used for model selection. Instead, established mathematical principles can be used to calculate the RSE of the typical CL (CL TV ) at a relevant weight to evaluate the precision of CL predictions.

  6. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  7. Zoonotic disease in a peripheral population: persistence and transmission of Leishmania major in a putative sink-source system in the Negev Highlands, Israel.

    Berger, Ruti; Wasserberg, Gideon; Warburg, Alon; Orshan, Laor; Kotler, Burt P

    2014-08-01

    Populations at the edge of their geographic distributions are referred to as peripheral populations. Very little attention has been given to this topic in the context of persistence of infectious disease in natural populations. In this study, we examined this question using zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania major in the Negev Desert of Israel as a model system. Here, we suggest that the regional persistence of Phlebotomus papatasi populations and L. major transmission in the Sede Boqer region could be explained through processes akin to sink-source and/or mainland-island metapopulation dynamics. Given its potentially enzootically superior ecological conditions, we hypothesize that the Zin Valley ecotope constitutes the "mainland" or the "source" patch for the Sede Boqer area where L. major transmission is persistent and resistant to local extinctions (die-outs) whereas the local sand fly populations on the Zin Plateau ("island patch" or "sink patch") are more prone to local extinctions. Between 2007 and 2008, we trapped sand flies and sand rats in the two areas and compared sand fly abundance and L. major infection prevalence in both. In both 2007 and 2008, sand fly abundance was high and continuous in the Zin Wadi but low and discontinuous in the Zin Plateau. Infection prevalence of sand rats was significantly higher in the Wadi (13%) compared with the Zin Plateau (3%). Minimum infection rate in sand flies did not differ significantly between the two areas. Overall, our results are consistent with the premise that the Zin Valley population is relatively robust in terms of L. major transmission, whereas transmission is potentially more tenuous in the plateau. Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes enabling the persistence of L. major and other vector-borne diseases in peripheral disease foci is important for predicting the effect of anthropogenic land use and climate change.

  8. Urban domestic dog populations as a source of canine distemper virus for wild carnivores in the Coquimbo region of Chile.

    Acosta-Jamett, G; Chalmers, W S K; Cunningham, A A; Cleaveland, S; Handel, I G; Bronsvoort, B M deC

    2011-09-28

    Urban areas can support dog populations dense enough to maintain canine distemper virus (CDV) and can be a source of infection for rural dogs and free-ranging carnivores. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between urban and rural domestic dog and wild carnivore populations and their effects on the epidemiology of CDV to explain retrospectively a CD outbreak in wild foxes in 2003. From 2005 to 2007 a cross-sectional household questionnaire survey was conducted in Coquimbo and Ovalle cities, in three towns and in rural sites along two transects from these cities to the Fray Jorge National Park (FJNP) in the Coquimbo region, Chile. Blood samples were collected from unvaccinated dogs at surveyed households and from free-ranging foxes in rural areas along the transects. The seroprevalence of CDV in domestic dogs was higher in urban than in rural areas and in the later was highest in dogs born before 2001-2002. The seroprevalence of CDV in foxes was higher in areas closer to human settlements. A high seroprevalence in dogs born before 2001-2002 further supports a link between CDV patterns in rural dog and fox populations. In our study area, urban dogs are proposed to be the source of CDV infection to wild carnivores. The large dog population size and density detected in Coquimbo and Ovalle provides optimal conditions for maintaining a large and dense susceptible population of dogs, which can act as a reservoir for highly infectious diseases and could have been the source of infection in the CD outbreak in wild foxes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

    Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

    2011-01-01

    1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy

  10. X-ray Point Source Populations in Spiral and Elliptical Galaxies

    Colbert, E.; Heckman, T.; Weaver, K.; Strickland, D.

    2002-01-01

    The hard-X-ray luminosity of non-active galaxies has been known to be fairly well correlated with the total blue luminosity since the days of the Einstein satellite. However, the origin of this hard component was not well understood. Some possibilities that were considered included X-ray binaries, extended upscattered far-infrared light via the inverse-Compton process, extended hot 107 K gas (especially in ellipitical galaxies), or even an active nucleus. Chandra images of normal, elliptical and starburst galaxies now show that a significant amount of the total hard X-ray emission comes from individual point sources. We present here spatial and spectral analyses of the point sources in a small sample of Chandra obervations of starburst galaxies, and compare with Chandra point source analyses from comparison galaxies (elliptical, Seyfert and normal galaxies). We discuss possible relationships between the number and total hard luminosity of the X-ray point sources and various measures of the galaxy star formation rate, and discuss possible options for the numerous compact sources that are observed.

  11. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  12. Annual individual hygienic assessment of natural exposure doses of the Altai territory model areas population

    N. Yu. Potseluev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal is to determine ionizing radiation natural sources exposure regularities of Altai Territory model areas population. The materials and methods. 11376 radon measurements, 1247 gamma radiation meas-urements in an open area and in residential and office buildings were performed, selection of 189 drinking water tests was carried out. Results. Complex radiation and hygienic examination of the region with the most large municipalities number with model areas allocation was conducted. The assessment of the Altai Territory population’s individual annual radiation doses from natural radionuclides has revealed a number of the regularities depending on the terrain’s ecological and geographical type. Following the research results, ranging the region territories taking into account of annual effective doses of the population from natural sources for 2009-2015 was carried out. The annual individual effective dose of the Altai Territory upland areas population presented by the highest values and ranges from 7.36 mSv / year to 8.19 mSv / year. Foothill regions of Altai and in Salair ridge are characterized by increased population exposure from natural sources. Here the dose ranges from 5.09 mSv / year to 6.22 mSv / year. Steppe and forest-steppe territories are characterized by the lowest level of the natural radiation which is ranging from 3.23 mSv / year to 4.11 mSv / year, that doesn’t exceed the all-Russian levels. Most of the hygienic radon equivalent equilibrium volume activity standards exceedances were registered in mountain and foothill areas buildings. A number of radon anomalies is revealed also in steppe areas. Med exceedances ranged from 203 ± 17.8 Bq / m3 to 480 ± 37.9 Bq / m3. Given the fact that most of these buildings belong to the administrative or educational institutions with an eight-hour working day, the dose of radiation for people there can be up to 10 mSv / year. Conclusion. Spreading of individual annual effective

  13. Explaining the Linguistic Diversity of Sahul Using Population Models

    Reesink, Ger; Singer, Ruth; Dunn, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The region of the ancient Sahul continent (present day Australia and New Guinea, and surrounding islands) is home to extreme linguistic diversity. Even apart from the huge Austronesian language family, which spread into the area after the breakup of the Sahul continent in the Holocene, there are hundreds of languages from many apparently unrelated families. On each of the subcontinents, the generally accepted classification recognizes one large, widespread family and a number of unrelatable smaller families. If these language families are related to each other, it is at a depth which is inaccessible to standard linguistic methods. We have inferred the history of structural characteristics of these languages under an admixture model, using a Bayesian algorithm originally developed to discover populations on the basis of recombining genetic markers. This analysis identifies 10 ancestral language populations, some of which can be identified with clearly defined phylogenetic groups. The results also show traces of early dispersals, including hints at ancient connections between Australian languages and some Papuan groups (long hypothesized, never before demonstrated). Systematic language contact effects between members of big phylogenetic groups are also detected, which can in some cases be identified with a diffusional or substrate signal. Most interestingly, however, there remains striking evidence of a phylogenetic signal, with many languages showing negligible amounts of admixture. PMID:19918360

  14. Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi

    Chen, Jiangzhuo; Chu, Shuyu; Chungbaek, Youngyun; Khan, Maleq; Kuhlman, Christopher; Marathe, Achla; Mortveit, Henning; Vullikanti, Anil; Xie, Dawen

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents’ activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi. Methods An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes. Results Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10–50%, when slum attributes are ignored. Conclusions Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners. PMID:27687898

  15. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-01-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Meteorite Source Regions as Revealed by the Near-Earth Object Population

    Binzel, Richard P.; DeMeo, Francesca E.; Burt, Brian J.; Polishook, David; Burbine, Thomas H.; Bus, Schelte J.; Tokunaga, Alan; Birlan, Mirel

    2014-11-01

    Spectroscopic and taxonomic information is now available for 1000 near-Earth objects, having been obtained through both targeted surveys (e.g. [1], [2], [3]) or resulting from all-sky surveys (e.g. [4]). We determine their taxonomic types in the Bus-DeMeo system [5] [6] and subsequently examine meteorite correlations based on spectral analysis (e.g. [7],[8]). We correlate our spectral findings with the source region probabilities calculated using the methods of Bottke et al. [9]. In terms of taxonomy, very clear sources are indicated: Q-, Sq-, and S-types most strongly associated with ordinary chondrite meteorites show clear source signatures through the inner main-belt. V-types are relatively equally balanced between nu6 and 3:1 resonance sources, consistent with the orbital dispersion of the Vesta family. B- and C-types show distinct source region preferences for the outer belt and for Jupiter family comets. A Jupiter family comet source predominates for the D-type near-Earth objects, implying these "asteroidal" bodies may be extinct or dormant comets [10]. Similarly, near-Earth objects falling in the spectrally featureless "X-type" category also show a strong outer belt and Jupiter family comet source region preference. Finally the Xe-class near-Earth objects, which most closely match the spectral properties of enstatite achondrite (aubrite) meteorites seen in the Hungaria region[11], show a source region preference consistent with a Hungaria origin by entering near-Earth space through the Mars crossing and nu6 resonance pathways. This work supported by the National Science Foundation Grant 0907766 and NASA Grant NNX10AG27G.[1] Lazzarin, M. et al. (2004), Mem. S. A. It. Suppl. 5, 21. [2] Thomas, C. A. et al. (2014), Icarus 228, 217. [3] Tokunaga, A. et al. (2006) BAAS 38, 59.07. [4] Hasselmann, P. H., Carvano, J. M., Lazzaro, D. (2011) NASA PDS, EAR-A-I0035-5-SDSSTAX-V1.0. [5] Bus, S.J., Binzel, R.P. (2002). Icarus 158, 146. [6] DeMeo, F.E. et al. (2009), Icarus

  17. Rural population and renewable energy sources: Experiences of the Republic of Serbia

    Pucar Mila

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade of the twentieth century the use of green (renewable energy has become the imperative not only in developed countries worldwide, but also in poorer countries like Asia and Africa. The change from traditional to renewable energy sources carries valuable improvements in environmental protection and economic efficacy. This paper through individual examples, explores the possibility of replacing traditional with renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, energy of small hydroelectric power plants, etc. worldwide and in rural Serbian communities.

  18. Partitioning detectability components in populations subject to within-season temporary emigration using binomial mixture models.

    O'Donnell, Katherine M; Thompson, Frank R; Semlitsch, Raymond D

    2015-01-01

    Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model's potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3-5 surveys each spring and fall 2010-2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability.

  19. A comparison of PCA and PMF models for source identification of fugitive methane emissions

    Assan, Sabina; Baudic, Alexia; Bsaibes, Sandy; Gros, Valerie; Ciais, Philippe; Staufer, Johannes; Robinson, Rod; Vogel, Felix

    2017-04-01

    Methane (CH_4) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 28-32 times that of carbon dioxide (CO_2) on a 100 year period, and even greater on shorter timescales [Etminan, et al., 2016, Allen, 2014]. Thus, despite its relatively short life time and smaller emission quantities compared to CO_2, CH4 emissions contribute to approximately 20{%} of today's anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming [Kirschke et al., 2013]. Major anthropogenic sources include livestock (enteric fermentation), oil and gas production and distribution, landfills, and wastewater emissions [EPA, 2011]. Especially in densely populated areas multiple CH4 sources can be found in close vicinity. Thus, when measuring CH4 emissions at local scales it is necessary to distinguish between different CH4 source categories to effectively quantify the contribution of each sector and aid the implementation of greenhouse gas reduction strategies. To this end, source apportionment models can be used to aid the interpretation of spatial and temporal patterns in order to identify and characterise emission sources. The focus of this study is to evaluate two common linear receptor models, namely Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) for CH4 source apportionment. The statistical models I will present combine continuous in-situ CH4 , C_2H_6, δ^1^3CH4 measured using a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) instrument [Assan et al. 2016] with volatile organic compound (VOC) observations performed using Gas Chromatography (GC) in order to explain the underlying variance of the data. The strengths and weaknesses of both models are identified for data collected in multi-source environments in the vicinity of four different types of sites; an agricultural farm with cattle, a natural gas compressor station, a wastewater treatment plant, and a pari-urban location in the Ile de France region impacted by various sources. To conclude, receptor model results to separate statistically the

  20. Dimensional and discrete variations on the psychosis continuum in a Dutch crowd-sourcing population sample

    Wigman, J. T. W.; Wardenaar, K. J.; Wanders, R. B. K.; Booij, S. H.; Jeronimus, B. F.; van der Krieke, L.; Wichers, M.; de Jonge, P.

    Background: Mild psychotic experiences are common in the general population. Although transient and benign in most cases, these experiences are predictive of later mental health problems for a significant minority. The goal of the present study was to perform examinations of the dimensional and

  1. Sources of dietary protein and risk of hypertension in a general Dutch population

    Altorf-van der Kuil, W.; Engberink, M.F.; Geleijnse, J.M.; Boer, J.M.A.; Verschuren, W.M.M.

    2012-01-01

    Evidence suggests a small beneficial effect of dietary protein on blood pressure (BP), especially for plant protein. We examined the relationship between several types of dietary protein (total, plant, animal, dairy, meat and grain) and the risk of hypertension in a general population of 3588 Dutch

  2. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

    Hock, Karlo; Wolff, Nicholas H; Beeden, Roger; Hoey, Jessica; Condie, Scott A; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Possingham, Hugh P; Mumby, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Reliability model of SNS linac (spallation neutron source-ORNL)

    Pitigoi, A.; Fernandez, P.

    2015-01-01

    A reliability model of SNS LINAC (Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory) has been developed using risk spectrum reliability analysis software and the analysis of the accelerator system's reliability has been performed. The analysis results have been evaluated by comparing them with the SNS operational data. This paper presents the main results and conclusions focusing on the definition of design weaknesses and provides recommendations to improve reliability of the MYRRHA ( linear accelerator. The reliability results show that the most affected SNS LINAC parts/systems are: 1) SCL (superconducting linac), front-end systems: IS, LEBT (low-energy beam transport line), MEBT (medium-energy beam transport line), diagnostics and controls; 2) RF systems (especially the SCL RF system); 3) power supplies and PS controllers. These results are in line with the records in the SNS logbook. The reliability issue that needs to be enforced in the linac design is the redundancy of the systems, subsystems and components most affected by failures. For compensation purposes, there is a need for intelligent fail-over redundancy implementation in controllers. Enough diagnostics has to be implemented to allow reliable functioning of the redundant solutions and to ensure the compensation function

  5. Modeling the explosion-source region: An overview

    Glenn, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    The explosion-source region is defined as the region surrounding an underground explosion that cannot be described by elastic or anelastic theory. This region extends typically to ranges up to 1 km/(kt) 1/3 but for some purposes, such as yield estimation via hydrodynamic means (CORRTEX and HYDRO PLUS), the maximum range of interest is less by an order of magnitude. For the simulation or analysis of seismic signals, however, what is required is the time resolved motion and stress state at the inelastic boundary. Various analytic approximations have been made for these boundary conditions, but since they rely on near-field empirical data they cannot be expected to reliably extrapolate to different explosion sites. More important, without some knowledge of the initial energy density and the characteristics of the medium immediately surrounding the explosion, these simplified models are unable to distinguish chemical from nuclear explosions, identify cavity decoupling, or account for such phenomena as anomalous dissipation via pore collapse

  6. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the

  7. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the pattern, giving one or more new

  8. Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population.

    Sofaer, Helen R; Sillett, T Scott; Langin, Kathryn M; Morrison, Scott A; Ghalambor, Cameron K

    2014-07-01

    Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

  9. Population pharmacokinetics model of THC used by pulmonary route in occasional cannabis smokers.

    Marsot, A; Audebert, C; Attolini, L; Lacarelle, B; Micallef, J; Blin, O

    Cannabis is the most widely used illegal drug in the world. Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main source of the pharmacological effect. Some studies have been carried out and showed significant variability in the described models as the values of the estimated pharmacokinetic parameters. The objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for THC in occasional cannabis smokers. Twelve male volunteers (age: 20-28years, body weight: 62.5-91.0kg), tobacco (3-8 cigarette per day) and cannabis occasional smokers were recruited from the local community. After ad libitum smoking cannabis cigarette according a standardized procedure, 16 blood samples up to 72h were collected. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a non-linear mixed effects model, with NONMEM software. Demographic and biological data were investigated as covariates. A three-compartment model with first-order elimination fitted the data. The model was parameterized in terms of micro constants and central volume of distribution (V 1 ). Normal ALT concentration (6.0 to 45.0IU/l) demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with k 10 . The mean values (%Relative Standard Error (RSE)) for k 10 , k 12 , k 21 , k 23 , k 32 and V 1 were 0.408h -1 (48.8%), 4.070h -1 (21.4%), 0.022h -1 (27.0%), 1.070h -1 (14.3%), 1.060h -1 (16.7%) and 19.10L (39.7%), respectively. We have developed a population pharmacokinetic model able to describe the quantitative relationship between administration of inhaled doses of THC and the observed plasma concentrations after smoking cannabis. In addition, a linear relationship between ALT concentration and value of k 10 has been described and request further investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method

    Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.

    2017-10-01

    Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian-Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

  11. Experiments to populate and validate a processing model for polyurethane foam. BKC 44306 PMDI-10

    Mondy, Lisa Ann [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rao, Rekha Ranjana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shelden, Bion [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Soehnel, Melissa Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); O' Hern, Timothy J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Celina, Mathias C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wyatt, Nicholas B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Russick, Edward Mark [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bauer, Stephen J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hileman, Michael Bryan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Urquhart, Alexander [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thompson, Kyle Richard [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, David Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    We are developing computational models to elucidate the expansion and dynamic filling process of a polyurethane foam, PMDI. The polyurethane of interest is chemically blown, where carbon dioxide is produced via the reaction of water, the blowing agent, and isocyanate. The isocyanate also reacts with polyol in a competing reaction, which produces the polymer. Here we detail the experiments needed to populate a processing model and provide parameters for the model based on these experiments. The model entails solving the conservation equations, including the equations of motion, an energy balance, and two rate equations for the polymerization and foaming reactions, following a simplified mathematical formalism that decouples these two reactions. Parameters for the polymerization kinetics model are reported based on infrared spectrophotometry. Parameters describing the gas generating reaction are reported based on measurements of volume, temperature and pressure evolution with time. A foam rheology model is proposed and parameters determined through steady-shear and oscillatory tests. Heat of reaction and heat capacity are determined through differential scanning calorimetry. Thermal conductivity of the foam as a function of density is measured using a transient method based on the theory of the transient plane source technique. Finally, density variations of the resulting solid foam in several simple geometries are directly measured by sectioning and sampling mass, as well as through x-ray computed tomography. These density measurements will be useful for model validation once the complete model is implemented in an engineering code.

  12. Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

    Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

  13. Application of Gaussian cubature to model two-dimensional population balances

    Bałdyga Jerzy

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In many systems of engineering interest the moment transformation of population balance is applied. One of the methods to solve the transformed population balance equations is the quadrature method of moments. It is based on the approximation of the density function in the source term by the Gaussian quadrature so that it preserves the moments of the original distribution. In this work we propose another method to be applied to the multivariate population problem in chemical engineering, namely a Gaussian cubature (GC technique that applies linear programming for the approximation of the multivariate distribution. Examples of the application of the Gaussian cubature (GC are presented for four processes typical for chemical engineering applications. The first and second ones are devoted to crystallization modeling with direction-dependent two-dimensional and three-dimensional growth rates, the third one represents drop dispersion accompanied by mass transfer in liquid-liquid dispersions and finally the fourth case regards the aggregation and sintering of particle populations.

  14. Filling the interspace—restoring arid land mosses: source populations, organic matter, and overwintering govern success

    Condon, Lea; Pyke, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Biological soil crusts contribute to ecosystem functions and occupy space that could be available to invasive annual grasses. Given disturbances in the semiarid shrub steppe communities, we embarked on a set of studies to investigate restoration potential of mosses in sagebrush steppe ecosystems. We examined establishment and growth of two moss species common to the Great Basin, USA: Bryum argenteum and Syntrichia ruralis from two environmental settings (warm dry vs. cool moist). Moss fragments were inoculated into a third warm dry setting, on bare soil in spring and fall, both with and without a jute net and with and without spring irrigation. Moss cover was monitored in spring seasons of three consecutive years. Both moss species increased in cover over the winter. When Bryum received spring irrigation that was out of sync with natural precipitation patterns, moss cover increased and then crashed, taking two seasons to recover. Syntrichia did not respond to the irrigation treatment. The addition of jute net increased moss cover under all conditions, except Syntrichia following fall inoculation, which required a second winter to increase in cover. The warm dry population of Bryum combined with jute achieved on average 60% cover compared to the cool moist population that achieved only 28% cover by the end of the study. Differences were less pronounced for Syntrichia where moss from the warm dry population with jute achieved on average 51% cover compared to the cool moist population that achieved 43% cover by the end of the study. Restoration of arid land mosses may quickly protect soils from erosion while occupying sites before invasive plants. We show that higher moss cover will be achieved quickly with the addition of organic matter and when moss fragments originate from sites with a climate that is similar to that of the restoration site.

  15. Discrete bivariate population balance modelling of heteroaggregation processes.

    Rollié, Sascha; Briesen, Heiko; Sundmacher, Kai

    2009-08-15

    Heteroaggregation in binary particle mixtures was simulated with a discrete population balance model in terms of two internal coordinates describing the particle properties. The considered particle species are of different size and zeta-potential. Property space is reduced with a semi-heuristic approach to enable an efficient solution. Aggregation rates are based on deterministic models for Brownian motion and stability, under consideration of DLVO interaction potentials. A charge-balance kernel is presented, relating the electrostatic surface potential to the property space by a simple charge balance. Parameter sensitivity with respect to the fractal dimension, aggregate size, hydrodynamic correction, ionic strength and absolute particle concentration was assessed. Results were compared to simulations with the literature kernel based on geometric coverage effects for clusters with heterogeneous surface properties. In both cases electrostatic phenomena, which dominate the aggregation process, show identical trends: impeded cluster-cluster aggregation at low particle mixing ratio (1:1), restabilisation at high mixing ratios (100:1) and formation of complex clusters for intermediate ratios (10:1). The particle mixing ratio controls the surface coverage extent of the larger particle species. Simulation results are compared to experimental flow cytometric data and show very satisfactory agreement.

  16. Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

    Dowson Chris

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html.

  17. Substantial population structure of Plasmodium vivax in Thailand facilitates identification of the sources of residual transmission.

    Veerayuth Kittichai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Plasmodium vivax transmission in Thailand has been substantially reduced over the past 10 years, yet it remains highly endemic along international borders. Understanding the genetic relationship of residual parasite populations can help track the origins of the parasites that are reintroduced into malaria-free regions within the country.A total of 127 P. vivax isolates were genotyped from two western provinces (Tak and Kanchanaburi and one eastern province (Ubon Ratchathani of Thailand using 10 microsatellite markers. Genetic diversity was high, but recent clonal expansion was detected in all three provinces. Substantial population structure and genetic differentiation of parasites among provinces suggest limited gene flow among these sites. There was no haplotype sharing among the three sites, and a reduced panel of four microsatellite markers was sufficient to assign the parasites to their provincial origins.Significant parasite genetic differentiation between provinces shows successful interruption of parasite spread within Thailand, but high diversity along international borders implies a substantial parasite population size in these regions. The provincial origin of P. vivax cases can be reliably determined by genotyping four microsatellite markers, which should be useful for monitoring parasite reintroduction after malaria elimination.

  18. Substantial population structure of Plasmodium vivax in Thailand facilitates identification of the sources of residual transmission.

    Kittichai, Veerayuth; Koepfli, Cristian; Nguitragool, Wang; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cui, Liwang

    2017-10-01

    Plasmodium vivax transmission in Thailand has been substantially reduced over the past 10 years, yet it remains highly endemic along international borders. Understanding the genetic relationship of residual parasite populations can help track the origins of the parasites that are reintroduced into malaria-free regions within the country. A total of 127 P. vivax isolates were genotyped from two western provinces (Tak and Kanchanaburi) and one eastern province (Ubon Ratchathani) of Thailand using 10 microsatellite markers. Genetic diversity was high, but recent clonal expansion was detected in all three provinces. Substantial population structure and genetic differentiation of parasites among provinces suggest limited gene flow among these sites. There was no haplotype sharing among the three sites, and a reduced panel of four microsatellite markers was sufficient to assign the parasites to their provincial origins. Significant parasite genetic differentiation between provinces shows successful interruption of parasite spread within Thailand, but high diversity along international borders implies a substantial parasite population size in these regions. The provincial origin of P. vivax cases can be reliably determined by genotyping four microsatellite markers, which should be useful for monitoring parasite reintroduction after malaria elimination.

  19. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  20. Versatile Markovian models for networks with asymmetric TCP sources

    van Foreest, N.D.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Mandjes, M.R.H.; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we use Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) to study the interaction of multiple TCP sources that share one or two buffers, thereby considerably extending earlier work. We first consider two sources sharing a buffer and investigate the consequences of two popular assumptions for the loss

  1. A discriminative syntactic model for source permutation via tree transduction

    Khalilov, M.; Sima'an, K.; Wu, D.

    2010-01-01

    A major challenge in statistical machine translation is mitigating the word order differences between source and target strings. While reordering and lexical translation choices are often conducted in tandem, source string permutation prior to translation is attractive for studying reordering using

  2. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  3. Statistical tools for analysis and modeling of cosmic populations and astronomical time series: CUDAHM and TSE

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Scargle, Jeffrey D.

    2018-01-01

    This presentation provides an overview of open-source software packages addressing two challenging classes of astrostatistics problems. (1) CUDAHM is a C++ framework for hierarchical Bayesian modeling of cosmic populations, leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) to enable applying this computationally challenging paradigm to large datasets. CUDAHM is motivated by measurement error problems in astronomy, where density estimation and linear and nonlinear regression must be addressed for populations of thousands to millions of objects whose features are measured with possibly complex uncertainties, potentially including selection effects. An example calculation demonstrates accurate GPU-accelerated luminosity function estimation for simulated populations of $10^6$ objects in about two hours using a single NVIDIA Tesla K40c GPU. (2) Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a collection of software in Python and MATLAB for exploratory analysis and statistical modeling of astronomical time series. It comprises a library of stand-alone functions and classes, as well as an application environment for interactive exploration of times series data. The presentation will summarize key capabilities of this emerging project, including new algorithms for analysis of irregularly-sampled time series.

  4. Elemental fingerprinting of mussel shells to predict population sources and redistribution potential in the Gulf of Maine.

    Cascade J B Sorte

    Full Text Available As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month. To determine whether trace elemental "fingerprints" incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations, we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental "fingerprinting" is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.

  5. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua

    2015-01-01

    We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

  6. Muticriteria decision making model for chosing between open source and non-open source software

    Edmilson Alves de Moraes

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This article proposes the use of a multicriterio method for supporting decision on a problem where the intent is to chose for software given the options of open source and not-open source. The study shows how a method for decison making can be used to provide problem structuration and simplify the decision maker job. The method Analytic Hierarchy Process-AHP is described step-by-step and its benefits and flaws are discussed. Followin the theoretical discussion, a muliple case study is presented, where two companies are to use the decison making method. The analysis was supported by Expert Choice, a software developed based on AHP framework.

  7. Laboratory Plasma Source as an MHD Model for Astrophysical Jets

    Mayo, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    The significance of the work described herein lies in the demonstration of Magnetized Coaxial Plasma Gun (MCG) devices like CPS-1 to produce energetic laboratory magneto-flows with embedded magnetic fields that can be used as a simulation tool to study flow interaction dynamic of jet flows, to demonstrate the magnetic acceleration and collimation of flows with primarily toroidal fields, and study cross field transport in turbulent accreting flows. Since plasma produced in MCG devices have magnetic topology and MHD flow regime similarity to stellar and extragalactic jets, we expect that careful investigation of these flows in the laboratory will reveal fundamental physical mechanisms influencing astrophysical flows. Discussion in the next section (sec.2) focuses on recent results describing collimation, leading flow surface interaction layers, and turbulent accretion. The primary objectives for a new three year effort would involve the development and deployment of novel electrostatic, magnetic, and visible plasma diagnostic techniques to measure plasma and flow parameters of the CPS-1 device in the flow chamber downstream of the plasma source to study, (1) mass ejection, morphology, and collimation and stability of energetic outflows, (2) the effects of external magnetization on collimation and stability, (3) the interaction of such flows with background neutral gas, the generation of visible emission in such interaction, and effect of neutral clouds on jet flow dynamics, and (4) the cross magnetic field transport of turbulent accreting flows. The applicability of existing laboratory plasma facilities to the study of stellar and extragalactic plasma should be exploited to elucidate underlying physical mechanisms that cannot be ascertained though astrophysical observation, and provide baseline to a wide variety of proposed models, MHD and otherwise. The work proposed herin represents a continued effort on a novel approach in relating laboratory experiments to

  8. A Systems Thinking Model for Open Source Software Development in Social Media

    Mustaquim, Moyen

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a social media model, based on systems thinking methodology is proposed to understand the behavior of the open source software development community working in social media.The proposed model is focused on relational influences of two different systems- social media and the open source community. This model can be useful for taking decisions which are complicated and where solutions are not apparent.Based on the proposed model, an efficient way of working in open source developm...

  9. Comparison of analytic source models for head scatter factor calculation and planar dose calculation for IMRT

    Yan Guanghua; Liu, Chihray; Lu Bo; Palta, Jatinder R; Li, Jonathan G

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to choose an appropriate head scatter source model for the fast and accurate independent planar dose calculation for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with MLC. The performance of three different head scatter source models regarding their ability to model head scatter and facilitate planar dose calculation was evaluated. A three-source model, a two-source model and a single-source model were compared in this study. In the planar dose calculation algorithm, in-air fluence distribution was derived from each of the head scatter source models while considering the combination of Jaw and MLC opening. Fluence perturbations due to tongue-and-groove effect, rounded leaf end and leaf transmission were taken into account explicitly. The dose distribution was calculated by convolving the in-air fluence distribution with an experimentally determined pencil-beam kernel. The results were compared with measurements using a diode array and passing rates with 2%/2 mm and 3%/3 mm criteria were reported. It was found that the two-source model achieved the best agreement on head scatter factor calculation. The three-source model and single-source model underestimated head scatter factors for certain symmetric rectangular fields and asymmetric fields, but similar good agreement could be achieved when monitor back scatter effect was incorporated explicitly. All the three source models resulted in comparable average passing rates (>97%) when the 3%/3 mm criterion was selected. The calculation with the single-source model and two-source model was slightly faster than the three-source model due to their simplicity

  10. Comparison of analytic source models for head scatter factor calculation and planar dose calculation for IMRT

    Yan Guanghua [Department of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Liu, Chihray; Lu Bo; Palta, Jatinder R; Li, Jonathan G [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610-0385 (United States)

    2008-04-21

    The purpose of this study was to choose an appropriate head scatter source model for the fast and accurate independent planar dose calculation for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with MLC. The performance of three different head scatter source models regarding their ability to model head scatter and facilitate planar dose calculation was evaluated. A three-source model, a two-source model and a single-source model were compared in this study. In the planar dose calculation algorithm, in-air fluence distribution was derived from each of the head scatter source models while considering the combination of Jaw and MLC opening. Fluence perturbations due to tongue-and-groove effect, rounded leaf end and leaf transmission were taken into account explicitly. The dose distribution was calculated by convolving the in-air fluence distribution with an experimentally determined pencil-beam kernel. The results were compared with measurements using a diode array and passing rates with 2%/2 mm and 3%/3 mm criteria were reported. It was found that the two-source model achieved the best agreement on head scatter factor calculation. The three-source model and single-source model underestimated head scatter factors for certain symmetric rectangular fields and asymmetric fields, but similar good agreement could be achieved when monitor back scatter effect was incorporated explicitly. All the three source models resulted in comparable average passing rates (>97%) when the 3%/3 mm criterion was selected. The calculation with the single-source model and two-source model was slightly faster than the three-source model due to their simplicity.

  11. Decay of Fecal Indicator Bacterial Populations and Bovine-Associated Source-Tracking Markers in Freshly Deposited Cow Pats

    Understanding the survival of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and microbial source-tracking (MST) markers is critical to developing pathogen fate and transport models. Although pathogen survival in water microcosms and manure-amended soils is well documented, little is known about...

  12. Biomonitoring of urinary metals in a population living in the vicinity of industrial sources: a comparison with the general population of Andalusia, Spain.

    Aguilera, Inmaculada; Daponte, Antonio; Gil, Fernando; Hernández, Antonio F; Godoy, Patricia; Pla, Antonio; Ramos, Juan Luis

    2008-12-15

    The Ria of Huelva (south-west Spain) is one of the most polluted fluvial-estuarine systems in the world. Industrial activity delivers huge amounts of pollutants to the local environment, particularly heavy metals and arsenic. Here we aimed to determine urinary levels of As, Cd, Cr, Cu and Ni in a representative sample (n=857) of adults living in the Ria of Huelva. Levels were compared to those from a representative sample of 861 adults of the general urban population of Andalusia (southern Spain) and multiple regression models were developed to identify individual factors associated with urinary levels of these elements. Arsenic levels were significantly higher in the Ria of Huelva as compared to other Andalusian cities, whereas Cd and Ni levels were significantly lower. Despite these differences, levels in both groups were similar to the reference values reported in previous studies for general population. Age, gender, diet and lifestyle were the major factors contributing to the interindividual variation in urinary metals. In conclusion, despite living in a highly polluted area, the population of the Ria of Huelva failed to show higher urinary levels of the studied metals as compared to a reference urban population of the same region.

  13. Cloud Geospatial Analysis Tools for Global-Scale Comparisons of Population Models for Decision Making

    Hancher, M.; Lieber, A.; Scott, L.

    2017-12-01

    The volume of satellite and other Earth data is growing rapidly. Combined with information about where people are, these data can inform decisions in a range of areas including food and water security, disease and disaster risk management, biodiversity, and climate adaptation. Google's platform for planetary-scale geospatial data analysis, Earth Engine, grants access to petabytes of continually updating Earth data, programming interfaces for analyzing the data without the need to download and manage it, and mechanisms for sharing the analyses and publishing results for data-driven decision making. In addition to data about the planet, data about the human planet - population, settlement and urban models - are now available for global scale analysis. The Earth Engine APIs enable these data to be joined, combined or visualized with economic or environmental indicators such as nighttime lights trends, global surface water, or climate projections, in the browser without the need to download anything. We will present our newly developed application intended to serve as a resource for government agencies, disaster response and public health programs, or other consumers of these data to quickly visualize the different population models, and compare them to ground truth tabular data to determine which model suits their immediate needs. Users can further tap into the power of Earth Engine and other Google technologies to perform a range of analysis from simple statistics in custom regions to more complex machine learning models. We will highlight case studies in which organizations around the world have used Earth Engine to combine population data with multiple other sources of data, such as water resources and roads data, over deep stacks of temporal imagery to model disease risk and accessibility to inform decisions.

  14. Improved population balance model for straining-dominant deep bed filtration using network calculations

    Yuan, Hao; You, Zhenjiang; Shapiro, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Colloidal-suspension flow in porous media is modelled simultaneously by the large scale population balance equations and by the microscale network model. The phenomenological parameter of the correlation length in the population balance model is determined from the network modelling. It is found...... out that the correlation length in the population balance model depends on the particle size. This dependency calculated by two-dimensional network has the same tendency as that obtained from the laboratory tests in engineered porous media....

  15. Sources of contradictions in the evaluation of population genetic consequences after the chernobyl disaster.

    Glazko, V I; Glazko, T T

    2013-01-01

    The review covers the analysis of our own and published data pertaining to population and genetic consequences in various mammalian species under conditions of high levels of ionizing radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The findings indicate that these conditions have promoted the reproduction of heterozygotes in polyloci spectra of molecular genetic markers and animals with a relatively increased stability of the chromosomal apparatus. The prospects of using the reproductive "success" of the carriers of these characteristics as an integral indicator of the selective influence of environmental stress factors are discussed.

  16. Source apportionment of airborne particulates through receptor modeling: Indian scenario

    Banerjee, Tirthankar; Murari, Vishnu; Kumar, Manish; Raju, M. P.

    2015-10-01

    Airborne particulate chemistry mostly governed by associated sources and apportionment of specific sources is extremely essential to delineate explicit control strategies. The present submission initially deals with the publications (1980s-2010s) of Indian origin which report regional heterogeneities of particulate concentrations with reference to associated species. Such meta-analyses clearly indicate the presence of reservoir of both primary and secondary aerosols in different geographical regions. Further, identification of specific signatory molecules for individual source category was also evaluated in terms of their scientific merit and repeatability. Source signatures mostly resemble international profile while, in selected cases lack appropriateness. In India, source apportionment (SA) of airborne particulates was initiated way back in 1985 through factor analysis, however, principal component analysis (PCA) shares a major proportion of applications (34%) followed by enrichment factor (EF, 27%), chemical mass balance (CMB, 15%) and positive matrix factorization (PMF, 9%). Mainstream SA analyses identify earth crust and road dust resuspensions (traced by Al, Ca, Fe, Na and Mg) as a principal source (6-73%) followed by vehicular emissions (traced by Fe, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Ba and Zn; 5-65%), industrial emissions (traced by Co, Cr, Zn, V, Ni, Mn, Cd; 0-60%), fuel combustion (traced by K, NH4+, SO4-, As, Te, S, Mn; 4-42%), marine aerosols (traced by Na, Mg, K; 0-15%) and biomass/refuse burning (traced by Cd, V, K, Cr, As, TC, Na, K, NH4+, NO3-, OC; 1-42%). In most of the cases, temporal variations of individual source contribution for a specific geographic region exhibit radical heterogeneity possibly due to unscientific orientation of individual tracers for specific source and well exaggerated by methodological weakness, inappropriate sample size, implications of secondary aerosols and inadequate emission inventories. Conclusively, a number of challenging

  17. Studies and modeling of cold neutron sources; Etude et modelisation des sources froides de neutron

    Campioni, G

    2004-11-15

    With the purpose of updating knowledge in the fields of cold neutron sources, the work of this thesis has been run according to the 3 following axes. First, the gathering of specific information forming the materials of this work. This set of knowledge covers the following fields: cold neutron, cross-sections for the different cold moderators, flux slowing down, different measurements of the cold flux and finally, issues in the thermal analysis of the problem. Secondly, the study and development of suitable computation tools. After an analysis of the problem, several tools have been planed, implemented and tested in the 3-dimensional radiation transport code Tripoli-4. In particular, a module of uncoupling, integrated in the official version of Tripoli-4, can perform Monte-Carlo parametric studies with a spare factor of Cpu time fetching 50 times. A module of coupling, simulating neutron guides, has also been developed and implemented in the Monte-Carlo code McStas. Thirdly, achieving a complete study for the validation of the installed calculation chain. These studies focus on 3 cold sources currently functioning: SP1 from Orphee reactor and 2 other sources (SFH and SFV) from the HFR at the Laue Langevin Institute. These studies give examples of problems and methods for the design of future cold sources.

  18. Principal sources of irradiation of the Bulgarian population and the place and importance of medical irradiation

    Vasilev, G.

    1983-01-01

    From information relating to numbers of various types of diagnostic medical X-ray procedures annually performed over the period 1962-1981 and mean radiation doses thereby delivered to various organs, estimates were derived of mean annual effective dose equivalents to the Bulgarian population; they were found to have risen from 0.5 msv per capita for 1962 to 1.35 msv per capita for 1981. Also, taking into account information on population age distributions, genetically and leukemogenically significant doses were calculated and found to have increased from 0.3 and 0.45 msv per capita for 1962 to 0.96 and 1.15 msv per capita for 1981, respectively. Analysis of collective gonad dose equivalents for 1981 indicated medical applications and diagnostic X-rays in particular to be responsible for the bulk radiation exposure in excess of background. As of 1981, the absolute level of risk incurred through radiological diagnosis was estimated at 240 lethal cases (146 fatal malignant tumors and leukoses, and 94 severe genetic effects). The death rate from malignancies for this period being of the order of 13.5 x 10 3 cases, the additional 146 cases constitute less than 1% of spontaneous deaths. (authors)

  19. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  20. Source characterization and exposure modeling of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in Southern California

    Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H.; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua (Tina); Wu, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

  1. Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Are the Main Sources of Added Sugar Intake in the Mexican Population.

    Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; Batis, Carolina; Lutter, Chessa K; Rivera, Juan A

    2016-09-01

    Sugar intake has been associated with an increased prevalence of obesity, other noncommunicable diseases, and dental caries. The WHO recommends that free sugars should be ENSANUT (National Health and Nutrition Survey) 2012], which represents 3 geographic regions and urban and rural areas. Dietary information was obtained by administering a 24-h recall questionnaire to 10,096 participants. Total sugar intake was estimated by using the National Institute of Public Health (INSP) food-composition table and an established method to estimate added sugars. The mean intakes of total, intrinsic, and added sugars were 365, 127, and 238 kcal/d, respectively. Added sugars contributed 13% of TEI. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) were the main source of sugars, contributing 69% of added sugars. Food products high in saturated fat and/or added sugar (HSFAS) were the second main sources of added sugars, contributing 25% of added sugars. The average intake of added sugars in the Mexican diet is higher than WHO recommendations, which may partly explain the high prevalence of obesity and diabetes in Mexico. Because SSBs and HSFAS contribute >94% of total added sugars, strategies to reduce their intake should be strengthened. This includes stronger food labels to warn the consumer about the content of added sugars in foods and beverages. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  2. Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

    Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

    2008-10-01

    Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

  3. Exposure of the Bulgarian population from natural and manmade ionizing radiation sources in the mid 90-ies

    Vasilev, G.; Bajrakova, A.; Ingilizova, Kh.; Khristova, M.; Karadzhov, A.

    1997-01-01

    The main radiation sources the Bulgarian population is exposed to, e.g. natural radiation background and manmade exposure such as occupational, medical, nuclear power engineering and the like, are analyzed. The study covers the period 1991-1994 but it also contains a number of retrospective assessments concerning the last few decades. It is prepared with a special reference to the forthcoming report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the effect of atomic radiation scheduled for publication in 1998/1999. The Bulgarian population exposure presented as average annual effective collective doses amounts to 20240 mSv/a from natural background, 6400 mSv/a from x-ray diagnostics, 400 mSv/a from nuclear medicine, 17 mSv/a from occupational exposure (uranium mining excluded) etc. Total exposure in excess to background irradiation is about 40% of the background one

  4. RANS modeling of scalar dispersion from localized sources within a simplified urban-area model

    Rossi, Riccardo; Capra, Stefano; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2011-11-01

    The dispersion of a passive scalar downstream a localized source within a simplified urban-like geometry is examined by means of RANS scalar flux models. The computations are conducted under conditions of neutral stability and for three different incoming wind directions (0°, 45°, 90°) at a roughness Reynolds number of Ret = 391. A Reynolds stress transport model is used to close the flow governing equations whereas both the standard eddy-diffusivity closure and algebraic flux models are employed to close the transport equation for the passive scalar. The comparison with a DNS database shows improved reliability from algebraic scalar flux models towards predicting both the mean concentration and the plume structure. Since algebraic flux models do not increase substantially the computational effort, the results indicate that the use of tensorial-diffusivity can be promising tool for dispersion simulations for the urban environment.

  5. Possible Source Populations of the White-backed Planthopper in the Greater Mekong Subregion Revealed by Mitochondrial DNA Analysis

    Li, Xiang-Yong; Chu, Dong; Yin, Yan-Qiong; Zhao, Xue-Qing; Chen, Ai-Dong; Khay, Sathya; Douangboupha, Bounneuang; Kyaw, Mu Mu; Kongchuensin, Manita; Ngo, Vien Vinh; Nguyen, Chung Huy

    2016-12-01

    The white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), is a serious pest of rice in Asia. However, little is known regarding the migration of this pest insect from the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, and Vietnam, into China’s Yunnan Province. To determine the migration patterns of S. furcifera in the GMS and putative secondary immigration inside China’s Yunnan Province, we investigated the population genetic diversity, genetic structure, and gene flow of 42 S. furcifera populations across the six countries in the GMS by intensive sampling using mitochondrial genes. Our study revealed the potential emigration of S. furcifera from the GMS consists primarily of three major sources: 1) the S. furcifera from Laos and Vietnam migrate into south and southeast Yunnan, where they proceed to further migrate into northeast and central Yunnan; 2) the S. furcifera from Myanmar migrate into west Yunnan, and/or central Yunnan, and/or northeast Yunnan; 3) the S. furcifera from Cambodia migrate into southwest Yunnan, where the populations can migrate further into central Yunnan. The new data will not only be helpful in predicting population dynamics of the planthopper, but will also aid in regional control programs for this economically important pest insect.

  6. Identifying source populations for the reintroduction of the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber L. 1758, into Britain: evidence from ancient DNA.

    Marr, Melissa M; Brace, Selina; Schreve, Danielle C; Barnes, Ian

    2018-02-09

    Establishing true phylogenetic relationships between populations is a critical consideration when sourcing individuals for translocation. This presents huge difficulties with threatened and endangered species that have become extirpated from large areas of their former range. We utilise ancient DNA (aDNA) to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of a keystone species which has become extinct in Britain, the Eurasian beaver Castor fiber. We sequenced seventeen 492 bp partial tRNAPro and control region sequences from Late Pleistocene and Holocene age beavers and included these in network, demographic and genealogy analyses. The mode of postglacial population expansion from refugia was investigated by employing tests of neutrality and a pairwise mismatch distribution analysis. We found evidence of a pre-Late Glacial Maximum ancestor for the Western C. fiber clade which experienced a rapid demographic expansion during the terminal Pleistocene to early Holocene period. Ancient British beavers were found to originate from the Western phylogroup but showed no phylogenetic affinity to any one modern relict population over another. Instead, we find that they formed part of a large, continuous, pan-Western European clade that harbored little internal substructure. Our study highlights the utility of aDNA in reconstructing population histories of extirpated species which has real-world implications for conservation planning.

  7. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  8. Assessing the population coverage of a health demographic surveillance system using satellite imagery and crowd-sourcing.

    Aurelio Di Pasquale

    Full Text Available Remotely sensed data can serve as an independent source of information about the location of residential structures in areas under demographic and health surveillance. We report on results obtained combining satellite imagery, imported from Bing, with location data routinely collected using the built-in GPS sensors of tablet computers, to assess completeness of population coverage in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Malawi. The Majete Malaria Project Health and Demographic Surveillance System, in Malawi, started in 2014 to support a project with the aim of studying the reduction of malaria using an integrated control approach by rolling out insecticide treated nets and improved case management supplemented with house improvement and larval source management. In order to support the monitoring of the trial a Health and Demographic Surveillance System was established in the area that surrounds the Majete Wildlife Reserve (1600 km2, using the OpenHDS data system. We compared house locations obtained using GPS recordings on mobile devices during the demographic surveillance census round with those acquired from satellite imagery. Volunteers were recruited through the crowdcrafting.org platform to identify building structures on the images, which enabled the compilation of a database with coordinates of potential residences. For every building identified on these satellite images by the volunteers (11,046 buildings identified of which 3424 (ca. 30% were part of the censused area, we calculated the distance to the nearest house enumerated on the ground by fieldworkers during the census round of the HDSS. A random sample of buildings (85 structures identified on satellite images without a nearby location enrolled in the census were visited by a fieldworker to determine how many were missed during the baseline census survey, if any were missed. The findings from this ground-truthing effort suggest that a high population coverage was

  9. Modelling of novel light sources based on asymmetric heterostructures

    Afonenko, A.A.; Kononenko, V.K.; Manak, I.S.

    1995-01-01

    For asymmetric quantum-well heterojunction laser sources, processes of carrier injection into quantum wells are considered. In contrast to ordinary quantum-well light sources, active layers in the novel nanocrystalline systems have different thickness and/or compositions. In addition, wide-band gap barrier layers separating the quantum wells may have a linear or parabolic energy potential profile. For various kinds of the structures, mathematical simulation of dynamic response has been carried out. (author). 8 refs, 5 figs

  10. The development of a methodology to assess population doses from multiple sources and exposure pathways of radioactivity

    Hancox, J.; Stansby, S.; Thorne, M.

    2002-01-01

    The Environment Agency (EA) has new duties in accordance with the Basic Safety Standards Directive under which it is required to ensure that doses to individuals received from exposure to anthropogenic sources of radioactivity are within defined limits. In order to assess compliance with these requirements, the EA needs to assess the doses to members of the most highly exposed population groups ('critical' groups) from all relevant potential sources of anthropogenic radioactivity and all relevant potential exposure pathways to such radioactivity. The EA has identified a need to develop a methodology for the retrospective assessment of effective doses from multiple sources of radioactive materials and exposure pathways associated with those sources. Under contract to the EA, AEA Technology has undertaken the development of a suitable methodology as part of EA R and D Project P3-070. The methodology developed under this research project has been designed to support the EA in meeting its obligations under the Euratom Basic Safety Standards Directive and is consistent with UK and international approaches to radiation dosimetry and radiological protection. The development and trial application of the methodology is described in this report

  11. Single bumps in a 2-population homogenized neuronal network model

    Kolodina, Karina; Oleynik, Anna; Wyller, John

    2018-05-01

    We investigate existence and stability of single bumps in a homogenized 2-population neural field model, when the firing rate functions are given by the Heaviside function. The model is derived by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity functions. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. The bump solutions are constructed by using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable. In the weakly modulated case the generic picture consists of two bumps (one narrow and one broad bump) for each admissible set of threshold values for firing. In addition, a new threshold value regime for existence of bumps is detected. Beyond the weakly modulated regime the number of bumps depends sensitively on the degree of heterogeneity. For the latter case we present a configuration consisting of three coexisting bumps. The linear stability of the bumps is studied by means of the spectral properties of a Fredholm integral operator, block diagonalization of this operator and the Fourier decomposition method. In the weakly modulated regime, one of the bumps is unstable for all relative inhibition times, while the other one is stable for small and moderate values of this parameter. The latter bump becomes unstable as the relative inhibition time exceeds a certain threshold. In the case of the three coexisting bumps detected in the regime of finite degree of heterogeneity, we have at least one stable bump (and maximum two stable bumps) for small and moderate values of the relative inhibition time.

  12. Comparing deep learning models for population screening using chest radiography

    Sivaramakrishnan, R.; Antani, Sameer; Candemir, Sema; Xue, Zhiyun; Abuya, Joseph; Kohli, Marc; Alderson, Philip; Thoma, George

    2018-02-01

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), tuberculosis (TB) remains the most deadly infectious disease in the world. In a 2015 global annual TB report, 1.5 million TB related deaths were reported. The conditions worsened in 2016 with 1.7 million reported deaths and more than 10 million people infected with the disease. Analysis of frontal chest X-rays (CXR) is one of the most popular methods for initial TB screening, however, the method is impacted by the lack of experts for screening chest radiographs. Computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) tools have gained significance because they reduce the human burden in screening and diagnosis, particularly in countries that lack substantial radiology services. State-of-the-art CADx software typically is based on machine learning (ML) approaches that use hand-engineered features, demanding expertise in analyzing the input variances and accounting for the changes in size, background, angle, and position of the region of interest (ROI) on the underlying medical imagery. More automatic Deep Learning (DL) tools have demonstrated promising results in a wide range of ML applications. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), a class of DL models, have gained research prominence in image classification, detection, and localization tasks because they are highly scalable and deliver superior results with end-to-end feature extraction and classification. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CNN based DL models for population screening using frontal CXRs. The results demonstrate that pre-trained CNNs are a promising feature extracting tool for medical imagery including the automated diagnosis of TB from chest radiographs but emphasize the importance of large data sets for the most accurate classification.

  13. Source apportionment of fine particulate matter in China in 2013 using a source-oriented chemical transport model.

    Shi, Zhihao; Li, Jingyi; Huang, Lin; Wang, Peng; Wu, Li; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Hongliang; Lu, Li; Liu, Xuejun; Liao, Hong; Hu, Jianlin

    2017-12-01

    China has been suffering high levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). Designing effective PM 2.5 control strategies requires information about the contributions of different sources. In this study, a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to quantitatively estimate the contributions of different source sectors to PM 2.5 in China. Emissions of primary PM 2.5 and gas pollutants of SO 2 , NO x , and NH 3 , which are precursors of particulate sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium (SNA, major PM 2.5 components in China), from eight source categories (power plants, residential sources, industries, transportation, open burning, sea salt, windblown dust and agriculture) were separately tracked to determine their contributions to PM 2.5 in 2013. Industrial sector is the largest source of SNA in Beijing, Xi'an and Chongqing, followed by agriculture and power plants. Residential emissions are also important sources of SNA, especially in winter when severe pollution events often occur. Nationally, the contributions of different source sectors to annual total PM 2.5 from high to low are industries, residential sources, agriculture, power plants, transportation, windblown dust, open burning and sea salt. Provincially, residential sources and industries are the major anthropogenic sources of primary PM 2.5 , while industries, agriculture, power plants and transportation are important for SNA in most provinces. For total PM 2.5 , residential and industrial emissions are the top two sources, with a combined contribution of 40-50% in most provinces. The contributions of power plants and agriculture to total PM 2.5 are about 10%, respectively. Secondary organic aerosol accounts for about 10% of annual PM 2.5 in most provinces, with higher contributions in southern provinces such as Yunnan (26%), Hainan (25%) and Taiwan (21%). Windblown dust is an important source in western provinces such as Xizang (55% of total PM 2.5 ), Qinghai (74%), Xinjiang (59

  14. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Clement N Mweya

    Full Text Available Rift Valley Fever (RVF is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  15. Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

    Mweya, Clement N; Holst, Niels; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics. Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district. Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

  16. A collisional radiative model of hydrogen plasmas developed for diagnostic purposes of negative ion sources

    Iordanova, Snejana, E-mail: snejana@phys.uni-sofia.bg; Paunska, Tsvetelina [Faculty of Physics, Sofia University, BG-1164 Sofia (Bulgaria)

    2016-02-15

    A collisional radiative model of low-pressure hydrogen plasmas is elaborated and applied in optical emission spectroscopy diagnostics of a single element of a matrix source of negative hydrogen ions. The model accounts for the main processes determining both the population densities of the first ten states of the hydrogen atom and the densities of the positive hydrogen ions H{sup +}, H{sub 2}{sup +}, and H{sub 3}{sup +}. In the calculations, the electron density and electron temperature are varied whereas the atomic and molecular temperatures are included as experimentally obtained external parameters. The ratio of the H{sub α} to H{sub β} line intensities is calculated from the numerical results for the excited state population densities, obtained as a solution of the set of the steady-state rate balance equations. The comparison of measured and theoretically obtained ratios of line intensities yields the values of the electron density and temperature as well as of the degree of dissociation, i.e., of the parameters which have a crucial role for the volume production of the negative ions.

  17. Building materials as a source of a possible radiation exposure of the population

    Pensko, J.; Burkart, W.

    1986-12-01

    Two main pathways of exposure contribute to the human radiation exposure indoors: external whole body irradiation from gamma-rays originating from the walls, and exposure of lung tissue by alpha-rays emitted by radon daughters present in the inhaled air. Natural radioactive elements present in building materials produce both kinds of radioactive exposure. Uranium, thorium and potassium are sources of gamma radiations. Materials containing radium can create an alpha-radiation hazard for the human respiratory system through the exhalation of radon from room surfaces. Measurements of the natural radioactivity of building materials made in several European countries are reviewed. A preliminary assessment of the radioactivity content of potentially hazardous materials on the Swiss market shows elevated levels in imported phosphogypsum and tuff. (author)

  18. Source apportionment of PM2.5 in North India using source-oriented air quality models

    Guo, Hao; Kota, Sri Harsha; Sahu, Shovan Kumar; Hu, Jianlin; Ying, Qi; Gao, Aifang; Zhang, Hongliang

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, severe pollution events were observed frequently in India especially at its capital, New Delhi. However, limited studies have been conducted to understand the sources to high pollutant concentrations for designing effective control strategies. In this work, source-oriented versions of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) were applied to quantify the contributions of eight source types (energy, industry, residential, on-road, off-road, agriculture, open burning and dust) to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and its components including primary PM (PPM) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) i.e. sulfate, nitrate and ammonium ions, in Delhi and three surrounding cities, Chandigarh, Lucknow and Jaipur in 2015. PPM mass is dominated by industry and residential activities (>60%). Energy (∼39%) and industry (∼45%) sectors contribute significantly to PPM at south of Delhi, which reach a maximum of 200 μg/m 3 during winter. Unlike PPM, SIA concentrations from different sources are more heterogeneous. High SIA concentrations (∼25 μg/m 3 ) at south Delhi and central Uttar Pradesh were mainly attributed to energy, industry and residential sectors. Agriculture is more important for SIA than PPM and contributions of on-road and open burning to SIA are also higher than to PPM. Residential sector contributes highest to total PM 2.5 (∼80 μg/m 3 ), followed by industry (∼70 μg/m 3 ) in North India. Energy and agriculture contribute ∼25 μg/m 3 and ∼16 μg/m 3 to total PM 2.5 , while SOA contributes <5 μg/m 3 . In Delhi, industry and residential activities contribute to 80% of total PM 2.5 . - Highlights: • Sources of PM 2.5 in North India were quantified by source-oriented CMAQ. • Industrial/residential activities are the dominating sources (60–70%) for PPM. • Energy/agriculture are the most important sources (30–40%) for SIA. • Strong seasonal

  19. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  20. OPEN-SOURCE DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (DEMs EVALUATION WITH GPS AND LiDAR DATA

    N. F. Khalid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer-Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, and Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010 are freely available Digital Elevation Model (DEM datasets for environmental modeling and studies. The quality of spatial resolution and vertical accuracy of the DEM data source has a great influence particularly on the accuracy specifically for inundation mapping. Most of the coastal inundation risk studies used the publicly available DEM to estimated the coastal inundation and associated damaged especially to human population based on the increment of sea level. In this study, the comparison between ground truth data from Global Positioning System (GPS observation and DEM is done to evaluate the accuracy of each DEM. The vertical accuracy of SRTM shows better result against ASTER and GMTED10 with an RMSE of 6.054 m. On top of the accuracy, the correlation of DEM is identified with the high determination of coefficient of 0.912 for SRTM. For coastal zone area, DEMs based on airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR dataset was used as ground truth data relating to terrain height. In this case, the LiDAR DEM is compared against the new SRTM DEM after applying the scale factor. From the findings, the accuracy of the new DEM model from SRTM can be improved by applying scale factor. The result clearly shows that the value of RMSE exhibit slightly different when it reached 0.503 m. Hence, this new model is the most suitable and meets the accuracy requirement for coastal inundation risk assessment using open source data. The suitability of these datasets for further analysis on coastal management studies is vital to assess the potentially vulnerable areas caused by coastal inundation.

  1. A hierarchical integrated population model for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, California and Nevada

    Coates, Peter S.; Halstead, Brian J.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne; Howe, Kristy B.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Reese, Kerry P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    rate (i.e., finite rate of change, λ) and specific demographic parameters that explain sources of variation in λ within different subpopulations would be valuable for making conservation and management decisions for this DPS. During 2003–12, agencies and universities collaborated to conduct extensive monitoring of sage-grouse populations within the Bi-State DPS. Data regarding lek attendance, movement, and survival of sage-grouse across multiple life stages were documented. Specifically, sage-grouse from nearly all subpopulations were marked and tracked across multiple seasons using radio-telemetry techniques. A hierarchical integrated population modeling (IPM) approach was used to derive demographic parameters for the Bi-State DPS using the large amount of data collected over a 10-year period. This modeling appr