Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

Dynamic generation of socio-economic scenarios for climate change adaptation: methods, building blocks and examples; Dynamisk generering av socioekonomiska scenarier foer klimatanpassning: metod, byggstenar och exempel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik

2008-05-15

There is a need for socio-economic scenarios in climate change adaptation work in order to help planners cope with uncertainty of the long term development of society. The United Nations' Panel of climate change (IPCC) has developed climate scenarios with substantially different climatic characteristics in a hundred years' perspective. However, in a 25-30 years' perspective, which is very long term in societal planning, the difference between the scenarios is small, while society may develop in different directions. Since measures of adaptation to a changing climate may have different impacts depending on future socio-economic conditions, there is a need for scenarios that describe different possible developments. With a time frame of 25 years scenarios are more useful than projections of single factors such as GDP or demography, because scenarios can capture structural changes of society. This report presents results from a first step of the development of a scenario tool for climate adaptation work in municipalities, regions, and sectors of society in Sweden. The tool is to be further developed in regional case studies with the aim to make it adaptable to the specific focus of interest of various planning agencies. Therefore, we primarily concentrate on developing external factors and different possible future states for these, and a methodology for combining them into scenarios. The report presents the main steps of the scenario methodology and building blocks for the scenario construction consisting of socio-economic factors of special importance for climate adaptation work. The 13 socio-economic factors are: Demography; International mitigation policy; International climate change adaptation policy, Swedish economy; Ideology and social cohesion; Climate change perception; Swedish governance; Environmental policy; Global energy paradigm; Swedish energy paradigm; Land use; Built environment; Transportation. For each factor different possible

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

2015-10-15

This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

Socioeconomic and other predictors of colonoscopy preparation quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebwohl, Benjamin; Wang, Timothy C; Neugut, Alfred I

2010-07-01

Suboptimal bowel preparation prior to colonoscopy is a common occurrence, with a deleterious impact on colonoscopy effectiveness. Established risk factors for suboptimal bowel preparation have been proposed, but social factors, such as socioeconomic status and marital status, have not been investigated. The aim of this study was to evaluate sociodemographic factors, including insurance status and marital status, as predictive of suboptimal preparation. We analyzed a database of 12,430 consecutive colonoscopies during a 28-month period at Columbia University Medical Center. We collected the following variables: age, gender, indication for colonoscopy, location (inpatient vs. outpatient), race, marital status, and Medicaid status. Preparation quality was recorded and dichotomized as optimal or suboptimal. We employed multivariate regression to determine independent risk factors for suboptimal bowel preparation. Among the 10,921 examinations in which bowel preparation was recorded, suboptimal preparation occurred in 34% of Medicaid patients versus 18% of non-Medicaid patients (P Married patients had decreased rates of suboptimal preparation (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.98). Other variables associated with suboptimal preparation included increased age (OR per 10 years 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.14), male gender (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.31-1.59), inpatient status (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.26-1.80), and later time of day (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.71-2.09). Unmarried status and Medicaid status are predictive of suboptimal bowel preparation. Future studies are warranted to identify how these social conditions predict bowel preparation quality and to implement interventions to optimize bowel preparation in vulnerable populations.

Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-01-01

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment. (letter)

Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

2015-01-01

Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

Science.gov (United States)

Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

2015-04-01

Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

2015-01-01

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Kate; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Sonny; Kopp, Robert; Kyle, Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall

2012-01-01

We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved. - Highlights: ► We explore the implications of alternative population and economic pathways for the role of Asia. ► High population world places significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. ► In high population world, the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices. ► The greater level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor people experience. ► The greater the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems preserved.

Nuclear waste repository in basalt: preliminary socioeconomic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cluett, C.; Bolton, P.A.; Malhotra, S.; McStay, J.R.; Slingsby, J.A.

1984-06-01

This report was prepared as a part of the continuing site characterization activities for a proposed nuclear waste repository in basalt (NWRB) to be located on the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. The purpose of this study is to assess the social and economic impacts that could be caused by the construction and operation of the proposed NWRB facility. The specific objectives of this study are to describe historical socioeconomic trends in the study area, to describe current conditions, to project future baseline conditions without the NWRB, to project potential impacts due to the proposed NWRB under two alternative regional development scenarios and assess their significance, and to suggest an overall impact management and mitigation strategy. A closely related objective is to assemble a comprehensive socioeconomic data base that can be easily updated for future analyses. This study examines employment, labor supply, population change, housing, local transportation, revenues, and expenditures for public services. This report documents the marked demographic and economic decline that has occurred in the study area since 1981 and concludes that future baseline growth will resume at a relatively slower pace after further expected declines have been experienced through about 1985. The projected socioeconomic impacts of the NWRB development are assessed under two alternative baseline scenarios and are not expected to be significant in either case. With careful planning and attention to impact mitigation, including public participation and interaction with local and regional planning agencies, potential socioeconomic impacts can be anticipated and managed effectively. Recommendations are made for providing frequent updating of the data base and for improving the analysis of socioeconomic impacts. 68 references, 19 figures, 38 tables

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

2017-01-01

levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2014-01-01

Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

Science.gov (United States)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

2017-04-01

Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Caille

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias

2017-11-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57-130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73-150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75-147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63-133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95-189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34-75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 62 cm (40-96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 75 cm (47-113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 91 cm (61-132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr-1 and 19 mm yr-1 for FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US2005 tCO2 -1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

1986-03-01

A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix

Ecological and Socio-Economic Modeling of Consequences of Biological Management Scenarios Implementation in Integrated Watershed Management (Case Study: Simindasht Catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. R. Keshtkar

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Integrated watershed management is considered as a new principle for development planning and management of water and soil resources emphasizing on socio-economic characteristics of the region to sustainable livelihoods without vulnerability for plants and the residents of an area. This research, in line with the objectives of integrated management, has been carried out for modelling and evaluating the effects of ecological, socio-economic consequences resulting from the implementation of the proposed management plans on the vegetation changes with a focus on the problems in Simindasht catchment, located in Semnan and Tehran Provinces. After standardization of indices by distance method and weighing them, the scenarios were prioritized using multi-criteria decision-making technique. Trade-off analysis of the results indicates that in the integrated management of Simindasht catchment more than one single management solution, covering all aspects of the system can be recommended in different weighting approaches. The approach used herein, considering the results of different models and comparing the results, is an efficient tool to represent the watershed system as a whole and to facilitate decision making for integrated watershed management.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

The socio-economic base line survey; first chapter of the handbook under preparation: "Managing farmers: a handbook for working with farmers in irrigation and drainage projects"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schrevel, A.

2002-01-01

The text The socio-economic base line survey is the first chapter of a book under preparation meant to instruct senior staff of irrigation and drainage projects on techniques to work with farmers. It informs the reader of best practices to set up and execute a socio-economic baseline survey. The

Food and families' socioeconomic status.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinsey, J D

1994-09-01

This paper explores the relationship between food expenditures and consumption patterns and families' socioeconomic status in the United States. Three themes follow through the paper. One is that as income rises over time and across socioeconomic groups, a smaller percent of that income is spent of food. Simultaneously, a larger percent of the food dollar buys services and food preparation moves farther away from the home. Second, characteristics of people like age and ethnicity contribute to diversity in food consumption but labor force participation by women has led the trend in away-from-home-food preparation. New scientific information and technology have changed attitudes about nutrition and food safety and their linkages to health. Finally, the continuous introduction of affordable new foods into the diet and culture of families in all socioeconomic groups has been a quiet evolution. Trying to differentiate socioeconomic groups in the United States by their food and nutritional status is almost a nonstory except for fascinating intragroup diversities that change rapidly in the postmodern society.

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Socioeconomics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saulsbury, J.W.; Sorensen, B.M.; Reed, R.M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Schexnayder, S.M. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1995-03-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background information on socioeconomic resources collected during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3--4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The USDOE published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This document provides background information on socioeconomic resources in Hawaii County, with particular emphasis on the Puna District. Information is being made available for use by others in conducting future socioeconomic impact assessments in this area. this report describes existing socioeconomic resources in the areas studied and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. The socioeconomic resources described are primarily those that would be affected by employment and population growth associated with any future large-scale development. These resource categories are population, housing, land use, economic structure, infrastructure and public services, local government revenues and expenditures, and tourism and recreation.

A few scenarios still do not fit all

Science.gov (United States)

Schweizer, Vanessa

2018-05-01

For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2015-05-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

Socioeconomic assessment of defense waste processing facility impacts in the Savannah River Plant region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peelle, E.; Reed, J.H.; Stevenson, R.H.

1981-09-01

The DWPF will immobilize highly radioactive defense wastes for storage on site until shipment to an approved federal repository for radioactive wastes. This document assesses the socioeconomic impacts of constructing and operating the proposed facility and presents the assessment methodology. Because various schedules and various ways of staging the construction of the DWPF are considered and because in some of these instances a large nearby construction project (the Vogtle Nuclear Power Station) may influence the socioeconomic impacts, four scenarios involving different facility options and schedules are assessed. In general, the impacts were found not to be large. In the scenario where the socioeconomic effects were the greatest, it was found that there are likely to be some impacts on schools in Barnwell County as well as a shortage of mobile homes in that county. Aiken, Allendale, and Bamberg counties are also likely to experience slight-to-moderate housing shortages. Minor impacts are anticipated for fire and police services, roads, traffic, and land use. There will be noticeable economic impact from the project. Other scenarios had fewer socioeconomic impacts.

Socioeconomic assessment of defense waste processing facility impacts in the Savannah River Plant region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peelle, E.; Reed, J.H.; Stevenson, R.H.

1981-09-01

The DWPF will immobilize highly radioactive defense wastes for storage on site until shipment to an approved federal repository for radioactive wastes. This document assesses the socioeconomic impacts of constructing and operating the proposed facility and presents the assessment methodology. Because various schedules and various ways of staging the construction of the DWPF are considered and because in some of these instances a large nearby construction project (the Vogtle Nuclear Power Station) may influence the socioeconomic impacts, four scenarios involving different facility options and schedules are assessed. In general, the impacts were found not to be large. In the scenario where the socioeconomic effects were the greatest, it was found that there are likely to be some impacts on schools in Barnwell County as well as a shortage of mobile homes in that county. Aiken, Allendale, and Bamberg counties are also likely to experience slight-to-moderate housing shortages. Minor impacts are anticipated for fire and police services, roads, traffic, and land use. There will be noticeable economic impact from the project. Other scenarios had fewer socioeconomic impacts

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goni, M.R.

1996-01-01

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

2015-01-01

This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100.

Science.gov (United States)

Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2017-01-01

This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex-as is conventionally done in demographic projections-but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

2017-12-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

2015-06-01

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

1984-06-01

This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

Science.gov (United States)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Socioeconomics (DRAFT)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saulsbury, J.W.; Sorensen, B.M.; Schexnayder, S.M.

1994-06-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background information on socioeconomic resources collected during the preparation of the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed. Regis. 5925638), withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 57:5433), of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGPEIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This document provides background information on socioeconomic resources in Hawaii County, with particular emphasis on the Puna District (Fig. 1). Information is being made available for use by others in conducting future socioeconomic impact assessments in this area. This report describes existing socioeconomic resources in the areas studied (i.e., the affected environment) and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. The socioeconomic resources described are primarily those that would be affected by employment and population growth associated with any future large-scale development. These resource categories are (1) population, (2) housing, (3) land use, (4) economic structure (primarily employment and income), (5) infrastructure and public services (education, ground transportation, police and fire protection, water, wastewater, solid waste disposal, electricity, and emergency planning), (6) local government revenues and expenditures, and (7) tourism and recreation.

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Social disparities in food preparation behaviours: a DEDIPAC study.

Science.gov (United States)

Méjean, Caroline; Si Hassen, Wendy; Gojard, Séverine; Ducrot, Pauline; Lampuré, Aurélie; Brug, Hans; Lien, Nanna; Nicolaou, Mary; Holdsworth, Michelle; Terragni, Laura; Hercberg, Serge; Castetbon, Katia

2017-09-20

The specific role of major socio-economic indicators in influencing food preparation behaviours could reveal distinct socio-economic patterns, thus enabling mechanisms to be understood that contribute to social inequalities in health. This study investigated whether there was an independent association of each socio-economic indicator (education, occupation, income) with food preparation behaviours. A total of 62,373 adults participating in the web-based NutriNet-Santé cohort study were included in our cross-sectional analyses. Cooking skills, preparation from scratch and kitchen equipment were assessed using a 0-10-point score; frequency of meal preparation, enjoyment of cooking and willingness to cook better/more frequently were categorical variables. Independent associations between socio-economic factors (education, income and occupation) and food preparation behaviours were assessed using analysis of covariance and logistic regression models stratified by sex. The models simultaneously included the three socio-economic indicators, adjusting for age, household composition and whether or not they were the main cook in the household. Participants with the lowest education, the lowest income group and female manual and office workers spent more time preparing food daily than participants with the highest education, those with the highest income and managerial staff (P cooks than those with the highest education level (Women: OR = 3.36 (1.69;6.69); Men: OR = 1.83 (1.07;3.16)) while female manual and office workers and the never-employed were less likely to be non-cooks (OR = 0.52 (0.28;0.97); OR = 0.30 (0.11;0.77)). Female manual and office workers had lower scores of preparation from scratch and were less likely to want to cook more frequently than managerial staff (P cooking meal daily (OR = 0.68 (0.45;0.86)) than those with the highest income. Lowest socio-economic groups, particularly women, spend more time preparing food than high socioeconomic

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. Copyright © 2011 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

2003-12-01

Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

Socioeconomic rehabilitation of successful renal transplant patients and impact of funding source: Indian scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Kapoor, Rakesh; Sharma, Raj Kumar; Srivastava, Aneesh; Kapoor, Rohit; Arora, Sohrab; Sureka, Sanjoy Kumar

2015-01-01

Socio-economic rehabilitation is an important outcome parameter in successful renal transplant recipients, particularly in developing countries with low income patients who often depend on extraneous sources to fund their surgery costs. We studied the socioeconomic rehabilitation and changes in socioeconomic status (SES) of successful renal allograft recipients among Indian patients and its correlation with their source of funding for the surgery. A cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study was conducted on 183 patients between January 2010 to January 2013. Patients with follow up of at least 1 year after successful renal transplant were included. During interview, two questionnaires were administered, one related to the SES including source of funding before transplantation and another one relating to the same at time of interview. Changes in SES were categorized as improvement, stable and deterioration if post-transplant SES score increased >5%, increased or decreased by 5% of pre-transplant value, respectively. In this cohort, 97 (52.7%), 67 (36.4%) and 19 (10.3%) patients were non-funded (self-funded), one-time funded and continuous funded, respectively. Fifty-six (30.4%) recipients had improvement in SES, whereas 89 (48.4%) and 38 (20.7%) recipients had deterioration and stable SES. Improvement in SES was seen in 68% patients with continuous funding support whereas, in only 36% and 12% patients with non-funded and onetime funding support (P = 0.001) respectively. Significant correlation was found (R = 0.715) between baseline socioeconomic strata and changes in SES after transplant. 70% of the patients with upper and upper middle class status had improving SES. Patients with middle class, lower middle and lower class had deterioration of SES after transplant in 47.4%, 79.6% and 66.7% patients, respectively. Most of the recipients from middle and lower social strata, which included more than 65% of our patient's population, had deteriorating SES even after a

Assessment of the Future Health Burden Attributable to Undernutrition under the Latest Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-05-01

There are growing concerns that future food security will be negatively affected by various factors, such as changes in socioeconomic and climate conditions. The health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition is among the most severe problems related to food crisis in the world. This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. We used three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) as future population and gross domestic products (GDP), three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and 12 Global Circulation Models (12 GCMs) to estimate climate conditions. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. A logarithmic relationship was proposed for the regression model. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model (M-GAEZ), and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 23 ~ 60% in 2030 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. DAtU decreases further by 2050 for SSP1 and SSP2 scenario, whereas it slightly increases for SSP3. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. ii) the impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. The impact of changes in socioeconomic conditions on the health burden is greater in the regions where current health burden is high. iii) parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on

Integrating environmental and socioeconomic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Branch, K.M.; Cluett, C.; Page, T.L.

1987-01-01

Since the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in 1969, considerable scientific and regulatory attention has been given to the preparation of environmental impact assessments. Part of this attention has been directed to definition of the proper scope of an environmental assessment and to debate about how the ''human environment'' should be addressed. This debate continues, and is reflected in the ongoing evolution of the definition of and relationship between the ''environmental'' and ''socioeconomic'' components of an integrated environmental impact assessment. This paper discusses the need for close integration between the environmental and socioeconomic assessment efforts and examines some of the benefits and difficulties of achieving this integration

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smit, B.

1993-01-01

Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Mario; Freitas, Raul; Crespi, Antonio L.; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, Joao Alexandre

2011-01-01

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: → Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. → Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. → Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.→ Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.→ Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Department of Forest and Landscape, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, Joao Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal)

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhancing the Quantitative Representation of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) using the International Futures Model

Science.gov (United States)

Rothman, D. S.; Siraj, A.; Hughes, B.

2013-12-01

The international research community is currently in the process of developing new scenarios for climate change research. One component of these scenarios are the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which describe a set of possible future socioeconomic conditions. These are presented in narrative storylines with associated quantitative drivers. The core quantitative drivers include total population, average GDP per capita, educational attainment, and urbanization at the global, regional, and national levels. At the same time there have been calls, particularly by the IAV community, for the SSPs to include additional quantitative information on other key social factors, such as income inequality, governance, health, and access to key infrastructures, which are discussed in the narratives. The International Futures system (IFs), based at the Pardee Center at the University of Denver, is able to provide forecasts of many of these indicators. IFs cannot use the SSP drivers as exogenous inputs, but we are able to create development pathways that closely reproduce the core quantitative drivers defined by the different SSPs, as well as incorporating assumptions on other key driving factors described in the qualitative narratives. In this paper, we present forecasts for additional quantitative indicators based upon the implementation of the SSP development pathways in IFs. These results will be of value to many researchers.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

2014-01-01

This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO 2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E H J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/372664636; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2013-01-01

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic

Embedding Microethical Dilemmas in High-Fidelity Simulation Scenarios: Preparing Nursing Students for Ethical Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Krautscheid, Lorretta C

2017-01-01

Despite the inclusion of ethics education in the formal curriculum, students felt ill-prepared to manage ethical issues and protect patients' health and well-being. Nursing students reported knowing what should be done to promote optimal patient care; however, they also reported an inability to act on their convictions due to fear of reprisal, powerlessness, and low confidence. Bloom's Taxonomy guided the development and implementation of experiential-applied ethics education via microethical dilemmas embedded in existing high-fidelity simulation (HFS) scenarios. Students were unaware that ethical dilemmas would be presented, replicating complex and spontaneous practice environments. Students reported that the educational strategy was powerful, increasing ethical decision-making confidence, empowering effective advocacy, and building courage to overcome fears and defend ethical practice. Simulation extends ethics education beyond the cognitive domain, ensuring the purposeful integration of affective and psychomotor learning, which promotes congruence between knowing what to do and acting on one's convictions. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(1):55-58.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim; Calvin, Katherine V.

2016-01-01

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

Emergency exercise scenario tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeblom, K.

1998-03-01

Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

2016-01-01

Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastassi Stefanova

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario fol......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

Socio-economic expenditure impacts report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The direct and indirect employment and employment income that can result from lifting the moratorium on British Columbia's west coast were estimated. Jobs and income are the two socio-economic benefits that generate the most concern at the local, provincial and national levels. The estimates are based on the development scenarios of one natural gas project in the Hecate Strait, and one oil project in the Queen Charlotte Sound. It was noted that a significant component of the potential socio-economic benefits from offshore development in British Columbia will result from project investment expenditures. Statistics Canada's Input-Output Model was used to assess the total expenditure impacts at the national and provincial levels. The indirect impacts are relatively more important to the local economy because they deal mainly with accommodation, food, beverage, and transportation. The total impacts can be measured in terms of total revenues, gross domestic product, and wages and salaries. The nature of supplier services that may be required were also identified. It was estimated that with the combined impacts of construction and operations, the total Canadian gross domestic product will increase by $3.0 billion, most of which will accrue to British Columbia. refs., tabs., figs

Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn R. Francis

2011-12-01

We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

Modeling of response, socioeconomic, and natural resource damage costs for hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Etkin, D.S.; French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.

2002-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the influence of oil type, spill size, response strategy and location factors on oil spill response costs, with particular reference to the cost benefits of the use of dispersants. Modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill in San Francisco Bay to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). Response costs, natural resource damages and socioeconomic impact were determined based on spill trajectory and fate. Mechanical recovery-based operations carry higher response costs than dispersant-based operations. Response costs for diesel and gasoline spills make up 20 per cent of the total costs, compared to 43 per cent for crude and heavy fuel oil spills. Damages to natural resources are higher for spills of toxic lighter fuels such as gasoline and diesel because gasoline has a greater impact on the water column with less shoreline oiling, resulting in more damages to natural resources. Heavier oils have a greater impact on shorelines and higher response and socioeconomic costs. Although socioeconomic costs varied by location, they tend to be greater than response costs and natural resource damage costs. Proportions of the different costs were described with reference to various spill factors. Socioeconomic costs are 61, 76, 45 and 53 per cent respectively for gasoline, diesel, crude oil, and heavy fuel oil spills. 27 refs., 23 tabs., 5 figs

Social disparities in food preparation behaviours: a DEDIPAC study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Méjean, C.; Si Hassen, W.; Gojard, S.; Ducrot, P.; Lampuré, A.; Brug, H.; Lien, N.; Nicolaou, M.; Holdsworth, M.; Terragni, L.; Hercberg, S.; Castetbon, K.

2017-01-01

Background The specific role of major socio-economic indicators in influencing food preparation behaviours could reveal distinct socio-economic patterns, thus enabling mechanisms to be understood that contribute to social inequalities in health. This study investigated whether there was an

Social disparities in food preparation behaviours: a DEDIPAC study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Méjean, Caroline; Si Hassen, Wendy; Gojard, Séverine; Ducrot, Pauline; Lampuré, Aurélie; Brug, Hans; Lien, Nanna; Nicolaou, Mary; Holdsworth, Michelle; Terragni, Laura; Hercberg, Serge; Castetbon, Katia

2017-01-01

Background: The specific role of major socio-economic indicators in influencing food preparation behaviours could reveal distinct socio-economic patterns, thus enabling mechanisms to be understood that contribute to social inequalities in health. This study investigated whether there was an

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios. The Implications for Policy. An Example from Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.I.

1999-01-01

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and ,most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and 'the precautionary principle'. 21 refs

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

OpenAIRE

Cristina Montiel Molina; Luis Galiana-Martín

2016-01-01

Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propag...

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

Food loss reduction from an environmental, socio-economic and consumer perspective - The case of the Swiss potato market.

Science.gov (United States)

Willersinn, Christian; Mouron, Patrik; Mack, Gabriele; Siegrist, Michael

2017-01-01

Potatoes are one of the commodities with the highest loss shares along the entire supply chain. In the present study, we analyzed six potential loss reduction scenarios concerning their environmental-socio-economic sustainability compared with the current situation by using the "SustainOS" methodology. For this purpose, life cycle assessments, full-cost calculations and an online consumer survey were conducted. Environmental improvements through loss reduction were rather small and did not cross limits of significance, but the socio-economic performance of the entire supply chain can be improved considerably. Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression analyses were used to predict the influence of specific subjective items like the intention to avoid food loss, knowledge related to food loss and consumers' price sensitivity on the assigned preference. Results show that perceived risks, perceived inconvenience and the general acceptance of loss-reducing instruments influence consumers' preferences. Altogether, only three out of six tested scenarios seem realistic: selling unwashed potatoes in a lightproof box, selling unpacked potatoes, and improved quality sorting at farms. For two of the other scenarios, consumers significantly indicated their refusal even if losses decreased considerably, whereas the sixth scenario was unfavorable from a socio-economic perspective. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

2017-12-01

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Sun Jeong

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

Who is eating where? Findings from the SocioEconomic Status and Activity in Women (SESAW) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Lukar E; Crawford, David A; Ball, Kylie

2011-03-01

Foods prepared outside of the home have been linked to less-than-ideal nutrient profiles for health. We examine whether the locations where meals are prepared and consumed are associated with socio-economic predictors among women. A cross-sectional study using self-reported data. We examined multiple locations where meals are prepared and consumed: (i) at home; (ii) fast food eaten at home; (iii) fast food eaten at the restaurant; (iv) total fast food; (v) non-fast-food restaurant meals eaten at home; (vi) non-fast-food restaurant meals eaten at the restaurant; and (vii) all non-fast-food restaurant meals. Multilevel logistic regression was used to determine whether frequent consumption of meals from these sources varied by level of education, occupation, household income and area-level disadvantage. Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. A total of 1328 women from forty-five neighbourhoods randomly sampled for the SocioEconomic Status and Activity in Women study. Those with higher educational qualifications or who were not in the workforce (compared with those in professional employment) were more likely to report frequent consumption of meals prepared and consumed at home. High individual- and area-level socio-economic characteristics were associated with a lower likelihood of frequent consumption of fast food and a higher likelihood of frequent consumption of meals from non-fast-food sources. The strength and significance of relationships varied by place of consumption. The source of meal preparation and consumption varied by socio-economic predictors. This has implications for policy makers who need to continue to campaign to make healthy alternatives available in out-of-home food sources.

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

Science.gov (United States)

Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakkes, J.; Gaponenko, N.; Mnatsakanian, R.

2003-01-01

The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

Food preparation supplies predict children's family meal and home-prepared dinner consumption in low-income households.

Science.gov (United States)

Appelhans, Bradley M; Waring, Molly E; Schneider, Kristin L; Pagoto, Sherry L

2014-05-01

Frequent family meals and home food preparation are considered important for children's nutritional health and weight maintenance. This cross-sectional study tested whether these parent-driven behaviors are related to the availability of food preparation supplies in low-income urban households. Caregivers of children ages 6-13 provided information on family meal frequency, child consumption of home-prepared dinners, household food insecurity, and attitudes towards cooking. Researchers used a newly developed Food Preparation Checklist (FPC) to assess the availability of 41 food preparation supplies during a physical audit of the home environment. Caregivers and children provided anthropometric measurements and jointly reported on child dietary intake. In ordinal logistic regression models, greater home availability of food preparation supplies was associated with more frequent family meals and child consumption of home-prepared dinners. Associations were independent of household financial strain, food insecurity, caregiver attitudes toward cooking, and sociodemographic characteristics. Fewer food preparation supplies were available in households characterized by greater food insecurity, lower income, and negative caregiver attitudes towards cooking, but did not differ by child or caregiver weight status. As in prior studies, more frequent family meals and consumption of home-prepared dinners were associated with healthier child dietary intake in several areas. We conclude that food preparation supplies are often limited in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged households, and their availability is related to the frequency with which children consume family meals and home-prepared dinners. The potential role of food preparation supplies as contributors to socioeconomic disparities in child nutritional health and obesity deserves further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research Gender Features of Formation of Student Life Scenarios

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Vadym Zavatskyi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of the impact on gender identity formation of student life scenarios. It is shown that socio-economic and political changes are factors which change perceptions of themselves and the general picture of the world youth, and is a catalyst for the process of finding one’s own life script or harmonious way of life. The authors established that the individual life path or script must meet the abilities and capabilities of the young man and also be a means of self-realization in life. The paper stated that under current conditions the process of personal and professional self-education related to a number of difficulties, that is why the problem of forming life script personality in adolescence is becoming increasingly important. Based on the scientific approaches the problem of forming life scenarios identity and gender identity problem. We characterize the sample studied, which was caused by the objectives and purpose of the study. The article provided a description of methods by which we conducted the diagnosis of gender identity influence on the formation of individual life scenarios in adolescence. We used the results of correlation analysis.

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

2013-01-01

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

ONWI socioeconomic activities in support of SRPO socioeconomic program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-03-01

The introduction describes the purpose of ONWI's Socioeconomic Program for SRPO nuclear waste repository program and the organization within ONWI dedicated to socioeconomic activities. Chapter 2 of this report, Statutory Requirements and Mission Plan Strategy, documents the specific directives and guidelines contained in the NWPA and in the Mission Plan that define DOE's socioeconomic responsibilities. Chapter 3, ONWI Socioeconomic Objectives and Activities to Assist SRPO, describes ONWI's socioeconomic objectives and provides a detailed discussion of the major activities planned to assist SRPO in the impact assessment, mitigation, and monitoring phases of the program. Chapter 4 lists references cited in the report. 15 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

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Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Socio-Economic Conditions and Quality of Life in the Tribal Areas of Orissa with Special Reference to Mayurbhanj District

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Dr N.C. Jana

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Odisha (previously known as Orissa, being socio-economically backward but culturally sound, is one of the important states in Eastern India. Out of 30 districts 9 are considered as tribal districts (according to Location Quotient value and of the total population (41,947,358 in 2011 a significant share (22.1% goes to tribal people (8,145,081in 2011. This tribal group of Odisha has special significance because they are one of the most backward and geographically isolated communities. That’s why their life style and economy is confined to the direct utilization of natural resources, pre-agricultural level of technology and specific indigenous type of work. But now with the emergence of industry and market economy, the age-old relationship between tribes and nature has disturbed. Keeping this in backdrop, the present study tried to explore the changing scenario of socio-economic condition in the tribal areas of Odisha. In this regard, various socio-economic indicators have been analyzed and compared for representing district-level patterns of quality of life and finding out the variation among the Primitive tribal households in the study area. In addition, Mayurbhanj has also been taken as a case study to represent the socio-economic condition and quality of life at the block level. It may be pointed out in this context that out of 30 districts in Odisha, according to Location Quotient value Mayurbhanj is the highest tribal concentrated district. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of disparities and variations in socio-economic status in Odisha as well as in Mayurbhanj and also find out some remedial measures to overcome the problems to bring the Primitive tribal community in the main stream of the society. Maps have been prepared on the above-mentioned indicators based on secondary data using Arc-GIS 9.3. From the analysis of the health-related indicators it is clear from the analysis that the quality of life

THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF MONITORING OF REGION’S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES:

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Valentyna Yakubiv

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article defines the nature of socio-economic development processes monitoring in a region on the basis of systematization of scientific works on economics. The terms of monitoring introduction into the processes of socio-economic development of a region are defined. The difference between monitoring and standard statistic technology is explained. The fact that socio-economic processes monitoring is primarily directed at collection, examination and preparation of information for making and analyzing of economic decisions at different management levels is proved. The indicators by the direction “renewable energy and energy efficiency”, which are evaluated in the process of monitoring, are outlined. Major tasks of monitoring are defined and principles of its information basis forming are determined. Key words: decentralization, information basis, renewable energy, monitoring, region, development, socio-economic processes.

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap

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Duffy, Erin; Mendelsohn, Joshua; Escarce, José J.

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association. Design This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35–75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009–2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009–2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White–Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators. Results Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES) assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated. Conclusion White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES) to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap. PMID:29474451

Racial residential segregation, socioeconomic disparities, and the White-Black survival gap.

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Ioana Popescu

Full Text Available To evaluate the association between racial residential segregation, a prominent manifestation of systemic racism, and the White-Black survival gap in a contemporary cohort of adults, and to assess the extent to which socioeconomic inequality explains this association.This was a cross sectional study of White and Black men and women aged 35-75 living in 102 large US Core Based Statistical Areas. The main outcome was the White-Black survival gap. We used 2009-2013 CDC mortality data for Black and White men and women to calculate age-, sex- and race adjusted White and Black mortality rates. We measured segregation using the Dissimilarity index, obtained from the Manhattan Institute. We used the 2009-2013 American Community Survey to define indicators of socioeconomic inequality. We estimated the CBSA-level White-Black gap in probability of survival using sequential linear regression models accounting for the CBSA dissimilarity index and race-specific socioeconomic indicators.Black men and women had a 14% and 9% lower probability of survival from age 35 to 75 than their white counterparts. Residential segregation was strongly associated with the survival gap, and this relationship was partly, but not fully, explained by socioeconomic inequality. At the lowest observed level of segregation, and with the Black socioeconomic status (SES assumed to be at the White SES level scenario, the survival gap is essentially eliminated.White-Black differences in survival remain wide notwithstanding public health efforts to improve life expectancy and initiatives to reduce health disparities. Eliminating racial residential segregation and bringing Black socioeconomic status (SES to White SES levels would eliminate the White-Black survival gap.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.

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Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Amisigo, Barnabas; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Crossman, Jill; Nicholls, Robert J; McCartney, Matthew; Rodda, Harvey J E

2018-05-14

As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Xingcai; Zhang, Xuejun

2017-02-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2-11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2009-04-01

In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

Methods of preparation of Swazi traditional fermented foods

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Protus Simatende

2015-09-01

Conclusion: Umcombotsi, emahewu, buganu, and emasi were the fermented foods commonly prepared at a household level in the Hhohho region, Swaziland. The main ingredient used for preparing umcombotsi and emahewu was maize meal. Unmilled sorghum malt was also added during preparation of umcombotsi. However, typically no malt was added during the preparation of emahewu. Buganu and emasi also play an important role in the diet and socioeconomic activities of the population in Swaziland.

Socio-economic analysis: a tool for assessing the potential of nanotechnologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brignon, Jean-Marc

2011-01-01

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long history, especially in the USA, of being used for the assessment of new regulation, new infrastructure and more recently for new technologies. Under the denomination of Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA), this concept is used in EU safety and environmental regulation, especially for the placing of chemicals on the market (REACh regulation) and the operation of industrial installations (Industrial Emissions Directive). As far as REACh and other EU legislation apply specifically to nanomaterials in the future, SEA might become an important assessment tool for nanotechnologies. The most important asset of SEA regarding nanomaterials, is the comparison with alternatives in socio-economic scenarios, which is key for the understanding of how a nanomaterial 'socially' performs in comparison with its alternatives. 'Industrial economics' methods should be introduced in SEAs to make industry and the regulator share common concepts and visions about economic competitiveness implications of regulating nanotechnologies, SEA and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) can complement each other : Socio-Economic LCA are increasingly seen as a complete assessment tool for nanotechnologies, but the perspective between Social LCA and SEA are different and the respective merits and limitations of both approaches should be kept in mind. SEA is a 'pragmatic regulatory impact analysis', that uses a cost/benefit framework analysis but remains open to other disciplines than economy, and open to the participation of stakeholders for the construction of scenarios of the deployment of technologies and the identification of alternatives. SEA is 'pragmatic' in the sense that it is driven by the purpose to assess 'what happens' with the introduction of nanotechnology, and uses methodologies such as Life Cycle Analysis only as far as they really contribute to that goal. We think that, being pragmatic, SEA is also adaptative, which is a key quality to handle the novelty of

Socio-economic analysis: a tool for assessing the potential of nanotechnologies

Science.gov (United States)

Brignon, Jean-Marc

2011-07-01

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long history, especially in the USA, of being used for the assessment of new regulation, new infrastructure and more recently for new technologies. Under the denomination of Socio-Economic Analysis (SEA), this concept is used in EU safety and environmental regulation, especially for the placing of chemicals on the market (REACh regulation) and the operation of industrial installations (Industrial Emissions Directive). As far as REACh and other EU legislation apply specifically to nanomaterials in the future, SEA might become an important assessment tool for nanotechnologies. The most important asset of SEA regarding nanomaterials, is the comparison with alternatives in socio-economic scenarios, which is key for the understanding of how a nanomaterial "socially" performs in comparison with its alternatives. "Industrial economics" methods should be introduced in SEAs to make industry and the regulator share common concepts and visions about economic competitiveness implications of regulating nanotechnologies, SEA and Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) can complement each other : Socio-Economic LCA are increasingly seen as a complete assessment tool for nanotechnologies, but the perspective between Social LCA and SEA are different and the respective merits and limitations of both approaches should be kept in mind. SEA is a "pragmatic regulatory impact analysis", that uses a cost/benefit framework analysis but remains open to other disciplines than economy, and open to the participation of stakeholders for the construction of scenarios of the deployment of technologies and the identification of alternatives. SEA is "pragmatic" in the sense that it is driven by the purpose to assess "what happens" with the introduction of nanotechnology, and uses methodologies such as Life Cycle Analysis only as far as they really contribute to that goal. We think that, being pragmatic, SEA is also adaptative, which is a key quality to handle the novelty of

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

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Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

The socioeconomic scenario and opportunities for mature production regions; O cenario socioeconomico e oportunidades de desenvolvimento para regioes produtoras maduras

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reis, Andrea Campos; Lima, Regina Celia Palacio

2009-07-01

It is shown that production of oil and gas in mature fields provides good conditions for the economic and social development of the producing regions. This article presents the current social-economic scenery in areas of mature production. The authors provide a comparison between collected royalties and human development indicator in some countries with analysis of socio-economic data and comparison of results with and without the collection of royalties. Additionally, this papers offers a study of the socio-economic motivations for production in mature fields and describes several initiatives for improving living conditions for the local population. (author)

Role of the coach-manager and organizational forms to manage the preparation of athletes in the new socio-economic conditions

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Vladimir Paevskyy

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to reveal the role of the coach, to discharge the role of manager, as well as the importance of modern organizational forms to manage the preparation of athletes in the new socio-economic conditions. Material and Methods: the methods used in the study of the theoretical level, including the analysis and synthesis of literature and materials posted on the Internet. Results: it was shown that the characteristics of the problem of improving the training of trainers is the account of the variety and diversity of managerial situations. Core members of the athletic training are the coach and the athlete. Coach main participant in the project, in fact, the project manager. Object management training is the behavior of the athlete and his condition. Conclusion: during the studies confirmed the problem of the need to improve the organization and management of the development of sport in today's Ukraine.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

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Aleksejus Kononovičius

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The focus of this contribution is the correspondence between collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Currently there is a wide selection of papers proposing various models for the both collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Yet the papers directly relating these two concepts are still quite rare. By studying this correspondence we discuss a cutting edge approach to the modeling of complex socio-economic systems. Design/methodology/approach – The collective behavior is often modeled using stochastic and ordinary calculus, while the inter-individual interactions are modeled using agent-based models. In order to obtain the ideal model, one should start from these frameworks and build a bridge to reach another. This is a formidable task, if we consider the top-down approach, namely starting from the collective behavior and moving towards inter-individual interactions. The bottom-up approach also fails, if complex inter-individual interaction models are considered, yet in this case we can start with simple models and increase the complexity as needed. Findings – The bottom-up approach, considering simple agent-based herding model as a model for the inter-individual interactions, allows us to derive certain macroscopic models of the complex socio-economic systems from the agent-based perspective. This provides interesting insights into the collective behavior patterns observed in the complex socio-economic systems. Research limitations/implications –The simplicity of the agent-based herding model might be considered to be somewhat limiting. Yet this simplicity implies that the model is highly universal. It reproduces universal features of social behavior and also can be further extended to fit different socio-economic scenarios. Practical implications – Insights provided in this contribution might be used to modify existing

A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Salvati, Luca

2014-01-01

Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

1979-10-01

The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

Science.gov (United States)

Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Mogollón, J. M.; Lassaletta, L.; Beusen, A. H. W.; van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Westhoek, H.; Bouwman, A. F.

2018-04-01

Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr‑1 in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr‑1). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions.

Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

2016-01-01

Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Lombardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

1992-01-01

Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

Consumption and expenditure on food prepared away from home among Mexican adults in 2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Langellier, Brent A

2015-01-01

To describe food expenditure and consumption of foods prepared away from home among Mexican adults. Data were from 45 241 adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006, a nationally-representative, cross-sectional survey of Mexican households. Descriptive statistics and multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between location of residence, educational attainment, socioeconomic status and the following: 1) expenditure on all food and at restaurants, and 2) frequency of consumption of 'comida corrida' or restaurant food and street food. Food expenditure and consumption of food prepared away from home were positively associated with socioeconomic status, educational attainment, and urban vs. rural residence (pConsumption of food prepared outside home may be an important part of the diet among urban Mexican adults and those with high socioeconomic status and educational attainment.

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

Science.gov (United States)

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HUMAN CAPITAL, THE DIGITAL DIVIDE, AND THE POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO THE FLOW-FUND ANALYSIS OF SOCIOECONOMIC METABOLISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RALUCA I. IORGULESCU

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Poverty and economic growth are interconnected research fields via the standard concept ‘human capital’ and in modern societies their analysis is intertwined. In the past decades, more and more research has considered modern economies as complex systems embedded in the biosystem. Under this assumption, scenario analysis based on the concept of socioeconomic metabolism is used to complement more traditional forecasting methods. Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM is developed on the framework of Georgescu-Roegen’s 'flow-fund' model of production and it characterizes socioeconomic systems as metabolic systems. In the context of this novel approach, concepts like bio-economic pressure enable scenario analysis for the evolution of the whole or partial socioeconomic system. The Human Activity Fund is a concept central to the socioeconomic metabolic flow-fund framework and it is related, besides human capital, to one of the newest sources of inequality, namely the ‘digital divide’. The digital divide is a result of the IT Revolution and recent research has associated it with the ‘rewiring of the human brain’. This paper introduces the concept of human capital and presents some of the measures employed in the literature. It also investigates the possible change, due to the digital divide, in the metabolic pattern of a society associated with ‘quality’ changes of the Human Activity Fund through demographic structure or poverty pattern alterations. The ‘internet illiteracy’ indicator is used as a first step to investigate the connection between the MuSIASEM concept Human Activity Fund and the standard concept Human Capital.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

Science.gov (United States)

Schmucki, Edgar; Marty, Christoph; Fierz, Charles; Weingartner, Rolf; Lehning, Michael

2017-02-01

Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000-1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

2018-04-01

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

Scenarios for economy and environment in Central and Eastern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bollen, J.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Maas, R.

1993-01-01

This draft report was produced within the framework of the Environmental Action Plant for Central and Eastern Europe on the request of the World Bank. A number of scenarios for this environment; Western Europe, Central Europe (the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland) and Eastern Europe (the former USSR) were developed. The environmental results related to scenarios applying future Western European techniques in future CEE (Environmental Action Plan for Central and Eastern Europe) investments were predicted - based on estimates of differences of energy efficiency and emission factors of techniques currently applied in CEE and Western Europe. The focus of the analysis is to reflect the effects on environmental quality in CEE assuming a gradual introduction of Western control technology. The results (in the form of maps, graphs and tables) of the analysis are given in detail, preceded by sections on socio-economic background and descriptions of scenarios and models. It is concluded that the main problem for Central and Eastern Europe will be to generate funds to restart economic growth after a difficult transition process. A more efficient use of energy should be encouraged and installations and industrial complexes should be retrofitted to help achieve this aim. Episodic peak concentrations of energy consumption should be reduced. (AB)

The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burtles, Jim

2015-01-01

This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

Opinions of Illinois Secondary Business Teachers Concerning Political and Socio-Economic Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Scriven, Jolene Davidson

1975-01-01

The results of this study point to a need for business teachers to find ways of discussing political and socio-economic issues in their classrooms and that business teacher education institutions should be certain that graduates are prepared to include these issues in the courses they teach. (Author)

Socioeconomic evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1980-01-01

The session on Socioeconomic Evaluations consisted of the following seven papers: (1) Socioeconomic Considerations in Nuclear Waste Management; (2) High-Level Radioactive Waste - the Social Decision; (3) Role of Impact Assessment in Program Planning - A Social Science Perspective; (4) Social and Demographic Impacts Associated with Large-Scale Resource Developments - Implications for Nuclear Waste Repositories; (5) Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Large-Scale Development Projects - Implications for Nuclear Waste Repositories; (6) Socioeconomic Analyses of the Proposed Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Project; and (7) Existing Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Incentives for Siting Publicly Sensitive Facilities

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

2016-11-15

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

The socio-economic impact assessment for nuclear fuel waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamm, J.; Wlodarczyk, T.

1992-01-01

The concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste will undergo public scrutiny as it is examined under the Canadian Environmental Assessment and Review Process (EARP). This process presents a number of challenges in preparing the socio-economic impact assessment (SEIA) component of an Environment Impact Statement. These challenges relate to defining the scope of the SEIA, adapting site-specific methodologies to an assessment of a concept, and addressing evolving public concerns and issues. This paper reports that in meeting these challenges a generic process-oriented SEIA has been developed that emphasizes the importance of defining policies and processes to manage socio-economic impacts. In addition, public involvement and attitude research has facilitated the assessment of the concept at the societal level

British Columbia offshore oil and gas socio-economic issue papers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boydell, T.; Brar, C.; Dodd, M.; Kwong, N.; Seeley

2004-05-01

Some of the key social and economic issues regarding offshore oil and gas exploration and development in British Columbia's coastal waters were examined by the Science, Technology and Environment Division of Royal Roads University in conjunction with Glenn Bridges and Associates. In 1972, the federal government imposed a moratorium to prevent crude oil tankers from travelling the west coast due to concerns over environmental impacts. A provincial moratorium on exploration followed shortly thereafter. The government of British Columbia recently suggested lifting the moratorium, and conducted public hearings and scientific reviews of issues related to offshore oil and exploration. In the Spring of 2002, the provincial government asked the federal government to consider lifting its moratorium. In response, a Federal Interdepartmental Offshore Oil and Gas Socio-Economic Issues Working Group conducted a series of study plans in the areas of science, legal, aboriginal, socio-economic, oceans and management regimes. This report provides the outcomes of the studies. It is organized in tabular form to facilitate presentation. All 8 tabs were catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. They include: (1) an introduction and overview, (2) illustrative development scenarios, (3) resource revenues report, (4) socio-economic expenditure report, (5) human resources report, (6) due diligence issues report, (7) knowledge management strategy for policy formation, and, (8) bibliography. refs., tabs., figs

British Columbia offshore oil and gas socio-economic issue papers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boydell, T.; Brar, C.; Dodd, M.; Kwong, N.; Seeley [Royal Roads Univ., Victoria, BC (Canada). Science Technology and Environment Division; Bridges, G.; Shrimpton, M.; Burke, H.; Johnson, J. [GE Bridges and Associates, Victoria, BC (Canada)

2004-05-01

Some of the key social and economic issues regarding offshore oil and gas exploration and development in British Columbia's coastal waters were examined by the Science, Technology and Environment Division of Royal Roads University in conjunction with Glenn Bridges and Associates. In 1972, the federal government imposed a moratorium to prevent crude oil tankers from travelling the west coast due to concerns over environmental impacts. A provincial moratorium on exploration followed shortly thereafter. The government of British Columbia recently suggested lifting the moratorium, and conducted public hearings and scientific reviews of issues related to offshore oil and exploration. In the Spring of 2002, the provincial government asked the federal government to consider lifting its moratorium. In response, a Federal Interdepartmental Offshore Oil and Gas Socio-Economic Issues Working Group conducted a series of study plans in the areas of science, legal, aboriginal, socio-economic, oceans and management regimes. This report provides the outcomes of the studies. It is organized in tabular form to facilitate presentation. All 8 tabs were catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. They include: (1) an introduction and overview, (2) illustrative development scenarios, (3) resource revenues report, (4) socio-economic expenditure report, (5) human resources report, (6) due diligence issues report, (7) knowledge management strategy for policy formation, and, (8) bibliography. refs., tabs., figs.

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

2013-01-01

In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel Sellers

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

Consumption and expenditure on food prepared away from home among Mexican adults in 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brent A Langellier

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To describe food expenditure and consumption of foods prepared away from home among Mexican adults. Materials and methods. Data were from 45 241 adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006, a nationally-representative, cross-sectional survey of Mexican households. Descriptive statistics and multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between location of residence, educational attainment, socioeconomic status and the following: 1 expenditure on all food and at restaurants, and 2 frequency of consumption of comida corrida or restaurant food and street food. Results. Food expenditure and consumption of food prepared away from home were positively associated with socioeconomic status, educational attainment, and urban vs. rural residence (p menor que 0.001 for all relationships in bivariate analyses. Conclusions. Consumption of food prepared outside home may be an important part of the diet among urban Mexican adults and those with high socioeconomic status and educational attainment.

A Study on Foodborne Bacterial Cross-contamination During Fresh Chicken Preparation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shamma Ebrahim AlZaabi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Cross-contamination of foodborne pathogens from undercooked poultry meat to ready-to-eat food has been shown to be responsible for a number of foodborne disease outbreaks. Various studies have indicated that bacterial cross-contamination occurs during food preparation where bacteria present on food contact other surfaces and cause illness. Objectives: This study evaluated the ability of bacteria to survive and cross-contaminate other foods during the preparation of fresh chicken. Salmonella spp. cross-contamination from chicken to cucumber and utensils under various food handling scenarios was determined. Methods: Two scenarios were tested: in scenario 1, cutting board and knife used for cutting chicken without washing step were sampled. In scenario 2, cutting board and knife was washed with tap water separately after cutting chicken, and subsequently used for cutting cucumber. In scenario 1, chicken, cutting board, knife, and hands were sampled, and in scenario 2, cucumber was tested. Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH method, using published Salmonella specific gene probes was used for Salmonella detection in samples taken from cross-contamination scenarios. A culture-based detection by Hektoen enteric agar was used for the confirmation of Salmonella species. Results: All the samples analyzed were found to be positive for Salmonella spp. with different contamination levels. These results were further confirmed by culture based method. In scenario 1, Salmonella spp. was detected by Sal-1 and Salm-63 oligonucleotide probes in all four samples (chicken, cutting board, knife and hands. A high contamination level was observed in chicken samples in comparison to samples collected from cutting board, knife and hands. In scenario 2, Salmonella spp. was detected by Sal-1 and Salm-63 oligonucleotide probes in the cucumber with very low contamination level. Salmonella Enterica was also detected by Sal-3 and Sapath-3 in both scenarios but

Visionmaker NYC: A bottom-up approach to finding shared socioeconomic pathways in New York City

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderson, E. W.; Fisher, K.; Giampieri, M.; Barr, J.; Meixler, M.; Allred, S. B.; Bunting-Howarth, K. E.; DuBois, B.; Parris, A. S.

2015-12-01

Visionmaker NYC is a free, public participatory, bottom-up web application to develop and share climate mitigation and adaptation strategies for New York City neighborhoods. The goal is to develop shared socioeconomic pathways by allowing a broad swath of community members - from schoolchildren to architects and developers to the general public - to input their concepts for a desired future. Visions are comprised of climate scenarios, lifestyle choices, and ecosystem arrangements, where ecosystems are broadly defined to include built ecosystems (e.g. apartment buildings, single family homes, etc.), transportation infrastructure (e.g. highways, connector roads, sidewalks), and natural land cover types (e.g. wetlands, forests, estuary.) Metrics of water flows, carbon cycling, biodiversity patterns, and population are estimated for the user's vision, for the same neighborhood today, and for that neighborhood as it existed in the pre-development state, based on the Welikia Project (welikia.org.) Users can keep visions private, share them with self-defined groups of other users, or distribute them publicly. Users can also propose "challenges" - specific desired states of metrics for specific parts of the city - and others can post visions in response. Visionmaker contributes by combining scenario planning, scientific modelling, and social media to create new, wide-open possibilities for discussion, collaboration, and imagination regarding future, shared socioeconomic pathways.

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

2015-01-01

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Overall socio-economic perspective of the world economy to the year 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The document contains the following 10 chapters: Introduction, Long-term trends in world economic development, Quantitative scenarios for the world economy to the year 2000, Structural changes in world production and trade, Long-term sectoral issues, New technologies, Environmental issues, Population and human settlements, Human resource development and social policy, Concluding observations. The chapter devoted to long-term sectoral issues includes an analysis of the trends in the field of energy consumption and production in the overall socio-economic perspective of the world economy to the year 2000. Figs and tabs

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Problem definition study of subsidence caused by geopressured geothermal resource development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

The environmental and socio-economic settings of four environmentally representative Gulf Coast geopressured geothermal fairways were inventoried. Subsidence predictions were prepared using feasible development scenarios for the four representative subsidence sites. Based on the results of the subsidence estimates, an assessment of the associated potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts was prepared. An inventory of mitigation measures was also compiled. Results of the subsidence estimates and impact assessments are presented, as well as conclusions as to what are the major uncertainties, problems, and issues concerning the future study of geopressured geothermal subsidence.

Coupling Biophysical and Socioeconomic Models for Coral Reef Systems in Quintana Roo, Mexican Caribbean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Melbourne-Thomas

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Transdisciplinary approaches that consider both socioeconomic and biophysical processes are central to understanding and managing rapid change in coral reef systems worldwide. To date, there have been limited attempts to couple the two sets of processes in dynamic models for coral reefs, and these attempts are confined to reef systems in developed countries. We present an approach to coupling existing biophysical and socioeconomic models for coral reef systems in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. The biophysical model is multiscale, using dynamic equations to capture local-scale ecological processes on individual reefs, with reefs connected at regional scales by the ocean transport of larval propagules. The agent-based socioeconomic model simulates changes in tourism, fisheries, and urbanization in the Quintana Roo region. Despite differences in the formulation and currencies of the two models, we were able to successfully modify and integrate them to synchronize and define information flows and feedbacks between them. A preliminary evaluation of the coupled model system indicates that the model gives reasonable predictions for fisheries and ecological variables and can be used to examine scenarios for future social-ecological change in Quintana Roo. We provide recommendations for where efforts might usefully be focused in future attempts to integrate models of biophysical and socioeconomic processes, based on the limitations of our coupled system.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Influence of socioeconomic and working status of the parents on the incidence of their children's dental caries.

Science.gov (United States)

Gokhale, Niraj; Nuvvula, Sivakumar

2016-01-01

In the contemporary scenario of both parents employed, there seems to be limited focus on the dietary habits and dental health of their children. Hence, we attempted to correlate the socioeconomic and working status of the parents to the incidence of their children's dental caries. One thousand school children aged between 3 and 12 years were enrolled in the study. Socioeconomic and working status of their parents was obtained by a pretested questionnaire following which these children were examined for their dental caries status. The data collected were statistically analyzed using logistic regression analysis and calculation of odds ratio. A significant correlation was observed between working status of the parents and dental caries status of their children. Though, the socioeconomic status and dental caries had a weak correlation, the odds ratio was high, indicating that the children of lower socioeconomic status or family with both parents employed were at a higher risk for dental caries. Efforts are needed to implement programs at the school level to enhance the oral and dental health among children, as parental responsibilities toward this maybe inadequate due to economic or time constraints.

Socioeconomic information, Plainsboro area, New Jersey: Supplementary documentation for an environmental assessment for the CIT [Compact Ignition Tokamak] at PPPL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentz, L.K.; Bender, D.S.

1987-07-01

This report contains socioeconomic information on the Plainsboro, New Jersey, area, the proposed location of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) facility. It was prepared as supplemental information for an environmental assessment for the CIT at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). The report contains descriptions of the demographic, economic, and community resource characteristics, and, based on information available in early 1987, considers the socioeconomic effect of the proposed facility. In all areas examined, the anticipated socioeconomic impacts of the proposed CIT facility at PPPL are negligible or minimal. 29 refs., 8 figs., 24 tabs

Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation Of Socio-Economic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Valentinovich Okrepilov

2015-06-01

Full Text Available To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The performed studies have created a basis for development of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socio-economic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted research of socio-economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that is not less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM. The essence of this tool is that owing to the power computer increase it has become possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as socio-economic systems are. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of socio-economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the

Scenarios of the Oil Industry of Croatia and the Region: Qualitative Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoslav Barišić

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The oil industry is historically burdened by different turbulences and tremors having the significant impact on the market. In order to anticipate unforeseen and potentially harmful situations, some firms as a part of their long-term strategic plans pay attention to scenario-based planning, which is a useful technique for preparation of appropriate strategy and responses to potential unforeseen emergencies. Scenario planning is used for a detailed analysis of the current situation in the market and potential future development, creating a research framework for creating development scenarios. Scenario planning is especially highlighted in the context of oil industry considering the technique actually originated in this business (it was also used in previous military doctrine, where, because of using a scenario-based planning, some oil companies profited and gained a privileged position. The aim of the paper is to provide an insight into the importance and various approaches in using scenario planning today and explain the potential long-term scenarios in the oil industry of Croatia and the region, obtained by means of qualitative research and in-depth interviews with a number of experts in the field of oil industry.

Outsourcing childcare, home cleaning and meal preparation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Ophem, van J.A.C.; Antonides, G.; Maassen van den Brink, H.

2011-01-01

In this paper the outsourcing of childcare, home cleaning and meal preparation is analysed by means of a socio-economic model that incorporates household-economic, lifecycle, lifestyle and health variables. The data (n= 700) was collected during a telephone survey in the Netherlands. About 10 per

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

2013-01-01

This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šarūnas Stanaitis

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

1979-11-01

The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

2016-03-01

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

SITE-94. Scenario development FEP audit list preparation: methodology and presentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenhouse, M.; Chapman, N.; Sumerling, T.

1993-04-01

This report concerns a study which is part of the SKI performance assessment project SITE-94. SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. Other important elements of SITE-94 are the development of a practical and defensible methodology for defining, constructing and analyzing scenarios, the development of approaches for treatment of uncertainties , evaluation of canister integrity, and the development and application of an appropriate quality assurance plan for performance assessments

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suchithra Naish

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Institutional and socioeconomic aspects of water supply

Science.gov (United States)

Rauchenschwandtner, H.; Pachel, M.

2012-04-01

Institutional and socioeconomic aspects of water supply Within the project CC-WaterS the participating researchers of the Vienna University of Economics and B.A. have been responsible for the analysis of the socioeconomic aspects related to water supply and climate change, the assessment of future water demands in the City of Vienna, as well as an estimation of economic consequences of possible water shortages and possible scope for the introduction of new legal guidelines. The institutional and socioeconomic dimensions of drinking water and sanitation systems are being examined by utilisation of different prognostic scenarios in order to assess future costs of water provisioning and future demands of main water users, thus providing an information basis and recommendations for policy and decision makers in the water sector. These dimensions, for example, include EU legislation - especially the Water Framework Directive -, national legislations and strategies targeted at achieving sustainability in water usage, best practices and different forms of regulating water markets, and an analysis of the implications of demographic change. As a basis this task encompasses research of given institutional, social, and legal-political structures in the area of water supply. In this course we provide an analysis of the structural characteristics of water markets, the role of water prices, the increasing perception of water as an economic good as well as implications thereof, the public awareness in regard to climate change and water resources, as well as related legal aspects and involved actors from regional to international level; and show how water resources and the different systems of water provisioning are affected by (ideological) conflicts on various levels. Furthermore, and in order to provide a solid basis for management recommendations related to climate change and water supply, an analytical risk-assessment framework based on the concepts of new institutional

Socioeconomic profile of Nye County, Nevada: Community services inventory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-09-01

The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project is preparing socioeconomic profiles of Nye County, Nevada, and communities in Nye County that could be affected by siting, construction, operation, and decommissioning of a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, located in Nye County. These profiles serve as a data base for evaluating local community service impacts; store existing socioeconomic data in a uniform, readily accessible format; identify the need for additional data; and assist in developing a plan for monitoring and mitigating any significant adverse impacts that may be associated with site characterization and potential repository development. This element of the socioeconomic profiles contains an inventory of community services provided by local, county, and state agencies and volunteer organizations to residents of Amargosa Valley, Beatty, and Pahrump. Services inventoried for each community include housing, growth management, general government, education, police protection, transportation networks, public clinics, private health personnel, parks and recreation, social services, libraries, ambulances, electric power, heating fuel, water, sewers and wastewater treatment, solid waste, and fire protection. The report includes a summary overview of service providers in Nye County, discussions of services provided to residents of the three communities, and summary tables. Data presented in this profile were collected through early 1985. Data collection efforts are ongoing and this profile will be updated periodically

Multi-model and multi-scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Byers, Edward; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Greve, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Nava, Luzma Fabiola; Cosgrove, William; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-07-01

This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.

Outsourcing child care, home cleaning and meal preparation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Ophem, van J.A.C.; Antonides, G.; Maassen van den Brink, H.

2013-01-01

In this paper, the outsourcing of child care, home cleaning and meal preparation is analysed by means of a socio-economic model that incorporates household-economic, life cycle, lifestyle and health variables. The data (n¿=¿700) were collected during a telephone survey in the Netherlands. About 10%

Adjudicating socioeconomic rights

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Christo Heunis

It is trite to say that the adjudication of socio-economic rights is a new enterprise in South African jurisprudence, as it is to the jurisprudence of many other jurisdictions. Professor van Rensburg's paper seeks to analyse the influence of political, socio-economic and cultural considerations on the interpretation and application ...

Assessment of geothermal development in the Imperial Valley of California. Volume 1. Environment, health, and socioeconomics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Layton, D. (ed.)

1980-07-01

Utilization of the Imperial Valley's geothermal resources to support energy production could be hindered if environmental impacts prove to be unacceptable or if geothermal operations are incompatible with agriculture. To address these concerns, an integrated environmental and socioeconomic assessment of energy production in the valley was prepared. The most important impacts examined in the assessment involved air quality changes resulting from emissions of hydrogen sulfide, and increases in the salinity of the Salton Sea resulting from the use of agricultural waste waters for power plant cooling. The socioeconomics consequences of future geothermal development will generally be beneficial. (MHR)

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Preparations for Old Age and Well-Being in Later Life in Thailand: Gender Matters?

Science.gov (United States)

Pothisiri, Wiraporn; Quashie, Nekehia T

2018-06-01

Data from the 2011 Survey of Older Persons in Thailand examines the association between preparations for old age (financial, health, caregiving, living arrangements, and spiritual) and three measures of well-being: financial satisfaction, life satisfaction, and physical health. The study further explores the role of social stratification and the gendered nature of these relationships. The sample ( N = 10,235) is restricted to adults 60 years and above, who are retired and answered the survey independently. Multivariate logistic regression analyses indicate that different forms of preparation are positively associated with post-retirement well-being for men and women but socioeconomic resources are positively associated with all three well-being outcomes. Furthermore, for women, there are significant negative interaction effects of income and financial preparation on life satisfaction, as well as negative interaction effects of disability and caregiver preparation on self-rated health. Implications for long-term care, socioeconomic inequality, and gender inequality in paid labor are discussed.

Session II-E. Socioeconomic evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finley, J.R.

1981-01-01

Major tasks of the socioeconomic program are designed to address and resolve issues raised by federal, state, and local agencies and the public, and to meet legal and regulatory requirements. The tasks are intended to: (1) characterize socioeconomic and other nontechnical issues, and recommend possible resolution, (2) develop socioeconomic impact methodologies and provide impact assessments, (3) design and implement a community development approach to impact mitigation, and (4)conduct institutional and organizational analyses. The following papers relate to these socioeconomic tasks: (1) an integrated approach to socioeconomic considerations in nuclear waste management; (2)ethical considerations surrounding nuclear waste isolation and mitigation; (3) institutional issues in transportation of nuclear wastes; (4) framework for evaluating the utility of incentive systems for radioactive waste repository siting; (5)special issues in impact mitigation; (6) effective programs for public participation in siting large public facilities; (7) a program for community development assistance; and (8) examination of factors affecting socioeconomic mitigation costs

Preparing for the unexpected: violence in the home care environment, one agency's story.

Science.gov (United States)

Browning, Sarah Via; Clark, Rebecca Culver; Glick, Roger E

2013-06-01

Home care and hospice agencies, bound by regulations, prepare for emergencies and disasters by creating policies and protocols for management of emergency situations, perhaps conducting table top or other types of drills, and discussing hazards likely to impact home care. Is this preparation merely an exercise to meet a requirement, or is it life-saving preparation? For one home care agency, the emergency exercise saved the day as the scenario enacted in the drill was actually lived out a few weeks after the exercise-a scenario the agency leaders hoped they would never face. This account explores how the agency prepared to meet the emergent situation and details lessons learned in the aftermath.

The socio-economic weight of the electronuclear sector in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-05-01

This report highlights the socio-economic weight of the electronuclear sector in France. It outlines that France is among the first three world leader on each link of the supply chain, and that the electronuclear sector has therefore a significant role in the French economy: 125.000 direct jobs and 410.000 generated jobs, a direct contribution of 0,71% to the GDP, each link of the supply chain (upstream, building, exploitation and maintenance, downstream) is present in the French economy, the electronuclear sector is part of the economic activity of local communities, the expertise of specialised companies contributes to their competitiveness in other domains, and the sector now invests to prepare its future. The socio-economic impacts of an EPR are analysed in terms of activity during nearly 90 years, with respect to its location, and according to technical and economic criteria. The last part outlines that the weight of this sector in the French economy could significantly increase

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

Science.gov (United States)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Socio-economic impacts of low-carbon power generation portfolios: Strategies with and without CCS for the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelbl, Barbara S.; Broek, Machteld A. van den; Wilting, Harry C.; Sanders, Mark W.J.L.; Bulavskaya, Tatyana; Wood, Richard; Faaij, André P.C.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We compare GHG mitigation policy including or excluding CCS on socio-economic impacts for the Netherlands. • We simulate these policy options in a global multiregional Input-Output Model with detailed bottom-up technology data. • Economy-wide differentials between these mitigation policies are small for Employment, GDP and Imports. • Notable impacts are found for the energy sector and some upstream sectors (natural gas, construction). • This pattern shows to base a choice on macroeconomic impacts is hard and it will affect strong and vested interests. - Abstract: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) could be an interesting option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands. This study compares a mitigation strategy for the Dutch power sector that includes CCS to one without on several socio-economic indicators. In particular, we calculate incremental gross value added (GVA), employment and import dependency impacts of two such low-carbon power production portfolios for the Netherlands. We combine technology specific techno-economic bottom-up data with a macro-economic multi-regional Input-Output-Table containing high sectoral detail. For the total economy, we find the differences between these scenarios to be small. Still, gross value added, and employment are lower under the CCS-inclusive strategy, while import dependency is higher. For the power sector, the differences between the scenarios are, however, considerable. Furthermore, our analysis shows that also for other sectors the differences between the scenarios could be large. For instance, a CCS-exclusive strategy leads to considerably higher GVA and employment in domestic construction services, while the CCS-inclusive strategy comes with considerably higher GVA and employment for natural gas mining and related upstream sectors.

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Central receiver power plant: an environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davison, M.; Grether, D.

1977-06-01

The technical details of the central receiver design are reviewed. Socio-economic questions are considered including: market penetration, air industrial sector model, demands on industry, employment, effluents associated with manufacture of components, strains due to intensive construction, water requirements, and land requirements. The ecological effects in the vicinity of the central receiver plant site are dealt with, with emphasis on effects on land surface, mammals, and reptiles and amphibians. Climatological considerations are reviewed including: desert types, effects of surface albedo modification, effects of aerosols, effects on evaporation rates, the heliostat canopy, effects on turbulent transfer rates, effects on the wind profile, a model of convection about a central receiver plant, and a global scenario. Drawings of heliostat and plant design are included in appendices. (MHR)

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Reactive nitrogen losses from China's food system for the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mengru; Kroeze, Carolien; Strokal, Maryna; Ma, Lin

2017-12-15

Food production in China has been changing fast as a result of socio-economic development. This resulted in an increased use of nitrogen (N) in food production, and also to increased reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses to the environment, causing nitrogen pollution. Our study is the first to quantify future Nr losses from China's food system for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We show that Nr losses differ largely among SSPs. We first qualitatively described the five SSP storylines for China with a focus on food production and consumption. Next, we interpreted these SSP scenarios quantitatively for 2030 and 2050, using the NUFER (NUtrient Flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model to project the Nr losses from China's food system. The results indicate that Nr losses from future food system in China are relatively low for SSP1 and SSP2, and relatively high for SSP3 and SSP4. In SSP5 Nr losses from China's food system are projected to be slightly lower than the level of today. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

Science.gov (United States)

Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-11-01

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

1996-12-31

The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Protection as care: moral reasoning and moral orientation among ethnically and socioeconomically diverse older women.

Science.gov (United States)

Dakin, Emily

2014-01-01

This study examined moral reasoning among ethnically and socioeconomically diverse older women based on the care and justice moral orientations reflecting theoretical frameworks developed by Carol Gilligan and Lawrence Kohlberg, respectively. A major gap in this area of research and theory development has been the lack of examination of moral reasoning in later life. This study addressed this gap by assessing socioeconomically and ethnically diverse older women's reasoning in response to ethical dilemmas showing conflict between autonomy, representative of Kohlberg's justice orientation, and protection, representative of Gilligan's care orientation. The dilemmas used in this study came from adult protective services (APS), the U.S. system that investigates and intervenes in cases of elder abuse and neglect. Subjects were 88 African American, Latina, and Caucasian women age 60 or over from varying socioeconomic status backgrounds who participated in eight focus groups. Overall, participants favored protection over autonomy in responding to the case scenarios. Their reasoning in responding to these dilemmas reflected an ethic of care and responsibility and a recognition of the limitations of autonomy. This reasoning is highly consistent with the care orientation. Variations in the overall ethic of care and responsibility based on ethnicity and SES also are discussed. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Review of existing studies and unresolved problems associated with socio-economic impact of nuclear powerplants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendrickson, P.L.; King, J.C.; O'Connell, M.S.

1975-07-01

Preparation of socio-economic impact statements for nuclear powerplants began only a few years ago. The number of these statements is increasing, and some states, such as Washington, now require them as a condition to state approval for thermal powerplants. The major purpose of this paper was to review existing socio-economic impact statements to identify where additional research to improve the impact analysis process would be useful and appropriate. A second purpose was to summarize the type of information included in existing statements. Toward this end a number of socio-economic impact statements were reviewed. Most of the statements are for nuclear power plants; however, some are for other large construction projects. The statements reviewed are largely predictive in nature; i.e., they attempt to predict socio-economic impacts based on the existing knowledge. A few of the reports contain retroactive case studies of plants already completed. One describes an ongoing monitoring analysis of plants under construction. As a result of this preliminary study, a need was identified for a better-defined impact statement methodology and for guidelines identifying appropriate areas for analysis and analytical techniques

Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

2011-12-01

Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The politics of socioeconomic status: how socioeconomic status may influence political attitudes and engagement.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown-Iannuzzi, Jazmin L; Lundberg, Kristjen B; McKee, Stephanie

2017-12-01

Socioeconomic status is hypothesized to be one factor informing political attitudes and actions. Presumably, this relationship is rooted in economic self-interest, with individuals preferring policies that would benefit them financially. In addition, these economic policy preferences are assumed to translate into political action. However, the relationships between socioeconomic status and political attitudes and behavior, as well as the psychological mechanisms associated with those relationships, are not straightforward. Here, we briefly review the current state of knowledge on the relationships between socioeconomic status and political attitudes and behavior. Overall, the research suggests that while socioeconomic status informs political attitudes toward economic policies, these attitudes may not correlate with complementary political behavior. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Alternative futures for societal change: The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, B. C.

2013-12-01

Deciding how best to respond to the challenge of climate change requires anticipating not only how climate might change in the future, but how society might change as well. Changes in population and economic growth, innovation, technological development, governance, culture, and lifestyle all will affect the energy use and land use that drive climate change, as well as society's capacity to reduce emissions or adapt to climate change impacts. Developing a set of alternative scenarios for societal development is one way to capture and explore the uncertainty in future conditions. The climate change research community has produced a new set of five such scenarios, called Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), that is intended to underpin scientific studies, assessments, and policy dialogues for the next decade or more. The SSPs include both qualitative narratives and quantitative projections of key elements such as population, economic growth, urbanization, and educational attainment. They are designed to span a wide range of future conditions in terms of the challenges they present to both adaptation and mitigation. The SSPs are one component of a larger scenario framework which also includes a set of radiative forcing pathways and climate model simulations based on them. Alternative climate futures will be integrated with the alternative societal futures represented by the SSPs to investigate climate change impacts as well as mitigation and adaptation response options.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Banta, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-05-12

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Žiga Malek

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

2008-01-01

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and

From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Capitani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect top-down global oversight with bottom-up subnational knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially explicit scenarios at national scale that model socioeconomic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing subnational (seven forest management zones and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025, under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ~ 2% per year (up to 88,808 km², with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation, i.e., loss of tree cover and biomass, up to 80,426 km² of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10% and implementation of payment for ecosystem service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km² and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km². This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users' equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

The SocioEconomic analysis of repository siting (SEARS): Guide to data base preparation: Final draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamm, R.R.; Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Kiel, B.; Parpia, B.

1984-11-01

This guide describes the data bases in the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) modeling system. This model is a user-interactive, computerized model for projecting the economic, demographic, public service, and fiscal impacts of repository siting. This guide provides a description of the data bases, sources of data, data formats, and preprocessing programs for adapting and implementing the SEARS system and is seen as an essential reference for technical users of the model. It should be used in conjunction with reports describing the model's features and characteristics. 95 refs., 3 tabs

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goessling, S.; Hall, C.M.

2006-01-01

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation

Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change. Editorial Essay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goessling, S. [Department of Service Management, Lund University, Box 882, 251 08 Helsingborg (Sweden); Hall, C.M. [Department of Tourism, University of Otago, Otago (New Zealand)

2006-12-15

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, 'warmer' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity. This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters. The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including 'most at risk destinations', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.

Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

2015-01-01

Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

Socioeconomic profile of Clark County, Nevada: Community services inventory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-09-01

The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project is preparing socioeconomic profiles of Clark County, Nevada, and communities in Clark County that could be affected by siting, construction, operation, and decommissioning of a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, located in Nye County. These profiles serve as a data base for evaluating local community service impacts; store existing socioeconomic data in a uniform, readily accessible format; identify the need for additional data; and assist in developing a plan for monitoring and mitigating any significant adverse impacts that may be associated with site characterization and potential repository development. This element of the socioeconomic profiles contains an inventory of community services provided by local, county, and state agencies and volunteer organizations to residents of Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Boulder City, Indian Springs, and unincorporated areas of the county. Services inventoried include housing, growth management, general government, education, police protection, transportation networks, public clinics, private health personnel, parks and recreation, social services, libraries, ambulances, electric power, natural gas, water, sewers and wastewater treatment, solid waste, and fire protection. The report includes a summary overview of service providers in Clark County, discussions of the services provided to residents of communities in Clark County that may be affected by Project activities, and a description of service providers whose service areas are not limited to the incorporated areas of Clark County. Data presented in this profile were collected through March of 1985. Data collection efforts are ongoing and this profile will be updated periodically

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

Science.gov (United States)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D. Danny

2014-01-01

This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

Emergency preparedness exercises for nuclear facilities: Preparation, conduct and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

This publication offers guidance for operating organizations and public authorities on planning, organizing and conducting exercises, preparing scenarios and evaluating the results of exercises in order to make full use of the experience gained in improving the response planning and preparedness for radiation emergencies. The training aspects associated with achieving an adequate level of emergency preparedness are explored and examples of accident scenarios are presented

The Role of Adolescents From a Low Socioeconomic Background in Household Food Preparation: A Qualitative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Leak, Tashara M; Aasand, Taylor A; Vickers, Zata; Reicks, Marla

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study was to understand adolescents' from low-income households perceptions of their involvement in home food preparation, reasons underlying the extent to which they were involved, and positive and negative consequences associated with their involvement. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of 19 adolescents (13-18 years). Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim. Themes were identified using grounded theory and the constant comparative method. Eight adolescents described cooking as a primary responsibility due to adult work and family schedules, age, gender, and/or cultural expectations. They were typically preparing food for themselves and their family without assistance, and making decisions about what was prepared. They identified positive and negative consequences including enjoyment and satisfaction, as well as stress and less time for other activities. Eleven adolescents mostly assisted the primary food preparer, with little input in deciding what was prepared. They identified benefits such as enjoyment and family interaction. Foods prepared by many adolescents tended to be quick and easy to prepare foods. Future studies should investigate the relationship between adultified cooking responsibilities, diet quality, and health. Also, cooking education for adolescents needs to address how to prepare a healthy family meal on a budget.

Hydrogen production in early generation fusion power plant and its socio-economic implication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konishi, S.; Yamamoto, Y.

2007-01-01

Full text: This paper describes technical possibility of high temperature blanket for the early generation of fusion power plant and its application to hydrogen production. Its anticipated implication and strategy from the socio-economic aspects will be also discussed. Material and energy balances, such as fuel supply and delivery of product energy from fusion plants, as well as waste discharge and accident scenario that lead to environmental impact, are characterized by blanket concepts. Thus blankets are considered to dominate the feature of fusion energy that should respond to the requirements of the sponsors, i.e., public and future market. Fusion blanket concept based on the combinations of LiPb and SiC materials are regarded as a candidate for ITER/TBM, and at the same time, applied in various DEMO designs encompassing high temperature output. Recent developments of SiC-LiPb blanket in Japan, EU, US or China suggests staged development paths starting from TBMs and targeting high temperature blanket and efficient energy output from early generation plants. These strategies are strongly affected by the views of these parties on fusion energy, from the aspects of socio-economics. Hydrogen production process with the high temperature blanket is one of the most important issues, because temperature range much higher than is possible with current or near future fission plants are needed, suggesting market possibility different from that of fission. Fuel cycles, particularly lithium supply and TBR control will be also important. Self-sustained fusion fuel cycle requires technical capability to maintain the lithium contents. Liquid blanket has an advantage in continuous and real-time control TBR in a plant, but large amount of lithium-6 and initial tritium supply remains as issues. As for the environmental effect, normal operation release, assumed accidental scenario, and rad-waste will be the key issue to dominate social acceptance of fusion. (author)

Hydrogen production in early generation fusion power plant and its socio-economic implication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konishi, Satoshi; Yamamoto, Yasushi

2008-01-01

This paper describes technical possibility of high temperature blanket for the early generation of fusion power plant and its application to hydrogen production. Its anticipated implication and strategy from the socio-economic aspects will be also discussed. Material and energy balances, such as fuel supply and delivery of product energy from fusion plants, as well as waste discharge and accident scenario that lead to environmental impact, are characterized by blanket concepts. Thus blankets are considered to dominate the feature of fusion energy that should respond to the requirements of the sponsors, i.e., public and future market. Fusion blanket concept based on the combinations of LiPb and SiC materials are regarded as a candidate for ITER/TBM, and at the same time, applied in various DEMO designs encompassing high temperature output. Recent developments of SiC-LiPb blanket in Japan, EU, US or China suggests staged development paths starting from TBMs and targeting high temperature blanket and efficient energy output from early generation plants. These strategies are strongly affected by the views of these parties on fusion energy, from the aspects of socio-economics. Hydrogen production process with the high temperature blanket is one of the most important issues, because temperature range much higher than is possible with current or near future fission plants are needed, suggesting market possibility different from that of fission. Fuel cycles, particularly lithium supply and TBR control will be also important. Self-sustained fusion fuel cycle requires technical capability to maintain the lithium contents. Liquid blanket has an advantage in continuous and real-time control TBR in a plant, but large amount of lithium-6 and initial tritium supply remains as issues. As for the environmental effect, normal operation release, assumed accidental scenario, and rad-waste will be the key issue to dominate social acceptance of fusion. (author)

Socioeconomic Factors and Childhood Overweight in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bammann, K.; Gwozdz, Wencke; Lanfer, A.

2013-01-01

What is already known about this subject. Overweight and obesity can be linked to different parental socioeconomic factors already in very young children. In Western developed countries, the association of childhood overweight and obesity and parental socioeconomic status shows a negative gradient......-sectional association between socioeconomic factors, like socioeconomic status (SES), and the prevalence of childhood overweight. Differences and similarities regarding this relationship in eight European regions (located in Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain and Sweden) are explored. 11 994....... Ambiguous results have been obtained regarding the association between socioeconomic factors and childhood overweight and obesity in different countries and over time. What this study adds. European regions show heterogeneous associations between socioeconomic factors and overweight and obesity in a multi...

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Environmental impact of geopressure - geothermal cogeneration facility on wetland resources and socioeconomic characteristics in Louisiana Gulf Coast region. Final report, October 10, 1983-September 31, 1984

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smalley, A.M.; Saleh, F.M.S.; Fontenot, M.

1984-08-01

Baseline data relevant to air quality are presented. The following are also included: geology and resource assessment, design well prospects in southwestern Louisiana, water quality monitoring, chemical analysis subsidence, microseismicity, geopressure-geothermal subsidence modeling, models of compaction and subsidence, sampling handling and preparation, brine chemistry, wetland resources, socioeconomic characteristics, impacts on wetlands, salinity, toxic metals, non-metal toxicants, temperature, subsidence, and socioeconomic impacts. (MHR)

Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riitta Molarius

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

Analysis of Brazilian SHP policy and its regulation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiago Filho, Geraldo Lucio; Rocha Galhardo, Camila; Cassia Barbosa, Adriana de; Mambeli Barros, Regina; Gracas Braga da Silva, Fernando das

2011-01-01

This article presents the main regulatory changes that occurred in the Brazilian power sector in 2009, along with the impacts these changes caused on the market, especially related to small hydropower (<30 MW). This study addresses regulatory issues based on inventory studies and records of basic projects, changes related to the compensation of the assured energy of SHPs in the Brazilian energy reallocation market, the socio-economic impact resulting from the construction of SHPs, SHPs in alternative resource auctions and finally the general outlook for the growth scenario for SHPs in Brazil according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). The overall conclusions of this investigation were that the 2008/2009 biennium was a period of great changes in the regulation of small hydropower plants in Brazil, and the SHP market has shown maturity. Additionally, despite SHP being a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry, in recent years, they have experienced policy disincentives caused by changes to rules that inhibit their growth. - Highlights: → Main regulatory changes in Brazilian Power Sector that have occurred in 2009. → The impact of these changes caused on market, especially about SHPs (<30 MW). → The Brazilian growth scenario for SHPs according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). → 2008/2009 biennium was a period of changes in the Brazilian regulation of SHPs. → SHP is a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry.

Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.

Science.gov (United States)

Verosub, K. L.

2017-12-01

Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Factors affecting food choices of older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups: a discrete choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; van Lenthe, Frank J

2015-04-01

Healthiness, price, and convenience are typically indicated as important motives for food choices; however, it is largely unknown to what extent older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups differ in these underlying motives. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is an innovative way to elicit implicit motives for food choices. The aim was to investigate differences in food motives between socioeconomic groups by means of a DCE. A DCE was carried out during a face-to-face interview among older adults as part of the Health and Living Conditions in Eindhoven and surrounding cities (GLOBE) cohort study, The Netherlands. Participants (n = 399; mean age: 63.3 y) were offered a series of choice sets about a usual dinner at home and were asked to choose in each choice set between 2 meals and an opt-out choice, with different combinations of attribute levels. We included 5 meal attributes (taste, healthiness, preparation time, travel time to shops, and price) and 3 or 4 levels for each attribute. Data were analyzed by multinomial logit models. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to the grocery store proved to significantly influence older adults' meal decisions; preparation time was not significant. Healthiness was the most important attribute for all of the participants. More highly educated participants rated a healthy and less expensive meal to be more important than did less educated participants. Those with a high income rated a meal that was healthy and very tasteful to be more important than did those with a lower income. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to grocery shops influenced older adults' meal decisions. Higher socioeconomic groups valued health more than did lower socioeconomic groups. DCEs represent a promising method to gain insight into the relative importance of motives for food choices. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN60293770. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

Socioeconomic status and fertility decline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dribe, Martin; Breschi, Marco; Gagnon, Alain

2017-01-01

America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories...

The costs of wind power. Socio-economic costs of expansion of wind power; Vindkraftens pris. Samfundsoekonomiske omkostninger ved udbygning af vindkraft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Busk, R.; Larsen, Anderse; Skovsgaard Nielsen, L.; Nielsen, Uffe; Pade, L.L.; Mulvad Jeppesen, L. [Inst. for Miljoevurdering (Denmark); Munksgaard, J. [Amternes of Kommunernes Forskningsinst. (Denmark)

2007-08-28

This report was prepared in order to inform the basis for making energy policy decisions, particularly in with respect to Denmark's goals for renewable energy and wind power. The report estimates the socio-economic costs of expanding Danish wind power to a share of 30, 40 and 50%, respectively, of the electricity consumption by 2025. The report also analyses barriers to and instruments for the expansion of Danish wind power. The main analysis is a socio-economic cost analysis which includes, among other factors, costs of investments, infrastructure and tax distortion losses. (au)

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

The Scenario Approach in the State Regulation of Addictive Goods Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roman Yuryevich Skokov

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article presents alternative scenarios of the state regulation of the markets for addictive goods and services which include alcohol and alcohol-containing products, tobacco products, energy drinks, drugs, gambling games. The author reveals the content of inertial, modernizational, monopolistic and prohibitionist scenarios, and systematizes the effective measures which are used in the international practice of state regulation for reducing the number of challenges connected with the consumption of addictive goods and for adequate use of industrial capacities. The analysis conducted in the article touched upon the traditional practical measures on reducing shadow economic activity, realizing home-made products and substitutes, regulating the economic and physical availability, restricting advertising, sponsorship and sales promotion, as well as the measures aimed at the change of consumer behavior in the conditions associated with increased risk, prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation. It is determined that none of these measures is not implemented to the full extent in Russia because they are used under the conditions of informal and shadow offers, corruption in government bodies, lobbying, administrative barriers and low-level administrative and business ethics. The author composed a rating of measures effectiveness under alternative scenarios. On the basis of this analysis and the assessment of the development and status of modern society, the theory and practice of regulating addictive goods markets, the conclusion was made about the socio-economic advantages of the state monopoly which allows to minimize the private interest in increasing sales and gaining over-profits, adequately reflects the public interest, standardizes and unifies physical and economic accessibility of these goods and services, proves its efficiency in domestic practice and the experience of Scandinavian countries.

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Study of 'inadvertent human intrusion or rare natural event scenarios' for sub-surface disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakatani, Takayoshi; Ishitoya, Kimihide; Funabashi, Hideyuki; Sugaya, Toshikatsu; Sone, Tomoyuki; Shimada, Hidemitsu; Nakai, Kunihiro

2010-03-01

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is making preparations for the sub-surface disposal of radioactive wastes, in an integrated fashion according to the properties of the waste material regardless of the generators or waste sources. In this study, 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' of 'Three Types scenarios' was considered according to the standard of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) on the sub-surface disposal system that was based on 'Basic Policy for Safety Regulation Concerning Land Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive Waste (Interim Report)' by Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (NSC). Selection of the assessed scenarios, development of the assessment tool and preliminary exposure dose assessment for general public were conducted. Among the assessed scenarios, the exposure dose of 'well water drinking scenario' was the highest under the very conservative assessment condition. This scenario assumed that the groundwater in Excavation Disturbed Zone (EDZ) was directly used as drinking water without any dilution. Although this was very conservative condition and the result exceeded 10 mSv/y, it stayed under the upper limit of standard dose value for 'Inadvertent Human Intrusion or Rare Natural Event Scenarios' (10 - 100 mSv/y). (author)

Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development; Proyeccion de la demanda electrica para dos escenarios de desarrollo socio-economico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goni, M R [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, San Martin (Argentina). Unidad de Actividad Reactores y Centrales Nucleares

1997-12-31

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

Socioeconomic assessment: issues, status, and plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boryczka, M.K.

1983-01-01

Numerous public meetings and hearings have been held in Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Utah on the issue of siting a nuclear waste repository in salt. Citizens in these potential site areas have raised many questions about how this facility will affect their quality of life. Questions about population and economic changes have been of particular concern. In developing a socioeconomic program, these issues and others have been an integral part of Battelle's socioeconomic studies. The three elements of Battelle's socioeconomic program are comprised of three elements: impact assessment, impact mitigation and community development, and impact monitoring. In addition, our approach to assessing socioeconomic impacts for the environmental assessment (EA) required by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 are described. Since the EA analysis will address many of the issues raised in the site areas, these concerns will be elaborated on. Finally, various techniques for managing socioeconomic impacts will be presented. 6 references, 1 figure

Household energy consumption in the UK: A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Druckman, A.; Jackson, T.

2008-01-01

Devising policies for a low carbon society requires a careful understanding of energy consumption in different types of households. In this paper, we explore patterns of UK household energy use and associated carbon emissions at national level and also at high levels of socio-economic and geographical disaggregation. In particular, we examine specific neighbourhoods with contrasting levels of deprivation, and typical 'types' (segments) of UK households based on socio-economic characteristics. Results support the hypothesis that different segments have widely differing patterns of consumption. We show that household energy use and associated carbon emissions are both strongly, but not solely, related to income levels. Other factors, such as the type of dwelling, tenure, household composition and rural/urban location are also extremely important. The methodology described in this paper can be used in various ways to inform policy-making. For example, results can help in targeting energy efficiency measures; trends from time series results will form a useful basis for scenario building; and the methodology may be used to model expected outcomes of possible policy options, such as personal carbon trading or a progressive tax regime on household energy consumption

Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

2016-04-01

Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

Time perspective and socioeconomic status: a link to socioeconomic disparities in health?

Science.gov (United States)

Guthrie, Lori C; Butler, Stephen C; Ward, Michael M

2009-06-01

Time perspective is a measure of the degree to which one's thinking is motivated by considerations of the future, present, or past. Time perspective has been proposed as a potential mediator of socioeconomic disparities in health because it has been associated with health behaviors and is presumed to vary with socioeconomic status. In this cross-sectional community-based survey of respondents recruited from hair salons and barber shops in a suburb of Washington DC, we examined the association between time perspective and both education level and occupation. We asked participants (N=525) to complete a questionnaire that included three subscales (future, present-fatalistic, and present-hedonistic) of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory. Participants with more formal education and those with professional occupations had higher scores on the future time perspective subscale, and lower scores on the present-fatalistic subscale, than participants with less formal education or a non-professional occupation. Present-fatalistic scores were also higher among participants whose parents had less formal education. Present-hedonistic scores were not associated with either education level or professional occupation. Time perspective scores were not independently associated with the likelihood of obesity, smoking, or exercise. In this community sample, future time perspective was associated with current socioeconomic status, and past-fatalistic time perspective was associated with both current and childhood socioeconomic status.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

"To Study the Relationship of Academic Stress and Socio-Economic Status among IX Standard Students of Raipur City"

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Suhail Ahmed; Ayyub, Khan Farhat

2013-01-01

This paper focuses on the relationship between academic stress and socio-economic status among IX standard students. The research was carried out in Raipur City (Chhattisgarh) on a sample of 600 IX standard students of English and Hindi medium schools. Academic Stress was measured by Stress Inventory for School Students prepared by Seema Rani…

History or histories of socio-economic rights?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Christian O.

2016-01-01

The German historian Reinhart Koselleck was once described as a partisan for histories in the plural (as opposed to history in the singular). His point was that history has many different layers, logics, and temporalities and that the modernist idea of one, overarching history with one direction ......) at work in the histories and dynamics of socio-economic rights. More specifically, I propose a list of eight important variables that may help explain the dynamics of the histories of socio-economic rights - their failures as well as their successes....... (telos) – be it towards progress or decline – was inadequate for the multi-faceted geographies, rhythms and dynamics of life. In these reflections on a two-days research workshop in Paris, I argue that Koselleck’s point also applies to the field of the history of socio-economic rights. Instead of writing...... the history of socio-economic rights, I would propose thinking about the histories of socio-economic rights. There are three main reasons for this: the non-teleological histories of socioeconomic rights; the distinctiveness between different socio-economic rights; and the complexity (multiple variables...

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Chronic Inundation along the US Coastline: Where, When and How to Respond

Science.gov (United States)

Caldas, A.; Dahl, K. A.; Spanger-Siegfried, E.; Udvardy, S.

2017-12-01

The Union of Concerned Scientists conducted an analysis of exposure to chronic inundation along the US coastline, using three localized sea level rise projections—Highest, Intermediate-High and Intermediate-Low—drawn from the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Chronic inundation is defined as flooding of 10 percent or more of usable land area at least 26 times per year. The goal of the analysis was to identify not only which communities would face this type of disruptive inundation, but also when, and over how much of their area. By having a timeframe and different scenarios, communities can prepare according to the time they have, and their tolerance for risk. We also used the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) at the Census tract level to identify which of these communities might be differentially impacted because of socioeconomic factors. We found that, by 2035, 170 communities will be facing chronic inundation. That number jumps to between 490 and 670 by the end of the century, depending on the scenario. Under the two higher scenarios, more than half of communities facing chronic inundation by 2035 contain tracts with high socioeconomic vulnerability today. Using the Intermediate-Low scenario as a proxy for sea level rise were the long-term temperature goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement were met, we found that up to 380 communities could avoid chronic inundation this century. The results are accessible within an interactive online tool, which zooms in to street level, therefore providing specific information that communities, city planners, and elected officials need to plan and prepare. Preparatory measures could include defending against the sea, accommodating and learning to live with water, or retreating from areas that are too hard to live in anymore. Each of these measures has challenges, and communities will need to adopt a portfolio of actions to prepare and protect themselves. Depending on their inundation response time, communities might

Socioeconomic impacts of nuclear power plants: a paired comparison of operating facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shields, M.A.; Cowan, J.T.; Bjornstad, D.J.

1979-07-01

This study compares the social, economic, and political effects of constructing and operating two nuclear power plants in the rural Southeast: Brunswick 1 and 2 in Brunswick County, North Carolina, and Hatch 1 and 2 in Appling County, Georgia. It is a comparative, post-licensing case study designed to analyze variations in the range and magnitude of impacts experienced by the areas in which the plants were constructed. The study is intended to assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the preparation of socioeconomic impact sections of environmental impact statements for proposed nuclear power stations

Socioeconomic inequality in hypertension in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Fateh, Mansooreh; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Asgari, Fereshteh; Alami, Ali; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-09-01

Hypertension covers a large portion of burden of diseases, especially in the developing countries. The unequal distribution of hypertension in the population may affect 'health for all' goal. This study aimed to investigate the socioeconomic inequality of hypertension in Iran and to identify its influencing factors. We used data from Iran's surveillance system for risk factors of noncommunicable diseases which was conducted on 89 400 individuals aged 15-64 years in 2005. To determine the socioeconomic status of participants, a new variable was created using a principal component analysis. We examined hypertension at different levels of this new variable and calculated slop index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (C) for hypertension. We then applied Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition analysis to determine the causes of inequality. The SII and C for hypertension were -32.3 and -0.170, respectively. The concentration indices varied widely between different provinces in Iran and was lower (more unequal) in women than in men. There was significant socioeconomic inequality in hypertension. The results of decomposition indicated that 40.5% of the low-socioeconomic group (n = 18190) and 16.4% of the high-socioeconomic group (n = 16335) had hypertension. Age, education level, sex and residency location were the main associated factors of the difference among groups. According to our results, there was an inequality in hypertension in Iran, so that individuals with low socioeconomic status had a higher prevalence of hypertension. Age was the most contributed factor in this inequality and women in low-socioeconomic group were the most vulnerable people for hypertension.

SOCIAL CAPITAL AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORMATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY IN RURAL AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrii Sukhostavets

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Social capital is the basis for the definition of the future concept of rural areas management. Therefore, one of the most important tasks is to determine the various factors of existence, development, and formation of social capital. One of these factors is the security of rural areas and the definition of how social capital affects it. The analysis of the available scientific works in various areas reveals the lack of consensus in the definition of the category “socio-economic security of rural areas”. This is due to the fact that the definition of social and economic security of rural areas is identified with such concepts as the ability to provide resistance to various internal and external environmental influences. The purpose of the study is to determine the nature of social capital, as well as to study its impact on the socio-economic security of the state. The methodology of the research is based on the monographic method, the method of dialectic cognition, the scenario methods used to find the optimal scenario implementation option; SWOT-analysis is used to assess the positive or negative impact of social capital on the socio-economic security of rural areas. Understanding the essence of socio-economic security has led to the conclusion that it consists of economic, social, environmental and other types of security. The term “social security” in the understanding of researchers usually has two interpretations: traditional (absence of threats to the society and alternative (absence of threats from the society. It is proved that the social security of the region should be focused on ensuring primarily human rights and freedoms, namely, personal, political, social, economic, cultural, environmental, and family ones. Social and economic security should also provide social standards and guarantees, as well as norms. The economic basis of the security of rural areas is manifested in the development of market relations, infrastructure

Socioeconomic inequalities in stillbirth rates in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeitlin, Jennifer; Mortensen, Laust; Prunet, Caroline

2016-01-01

in their country. Conclusions: Data on stillbirths and socioeconomic status from routine systems showed widespread and consistent socioeconomic inequalities in stillbirth rates in Europe. Further research is needed to better understand differences between countries in the magnitude of the socioeconomic gradient.......Background: Previous studies have shown that socioeconomic position is inversely associated with stillbirth risk, but the impact on national rates in Europe is not known. We aimed to assess the magnitude of social inequalities in stillbirth rates in European countries using indicators generated...... from routine monitoring systems. Methods: Aggregated data on the number of stillbirths and live births for the year 2010 were collected for three socioeconomic indicators (mothers' educational level, mothers' and fathers' occupational group) from 29 European countries participating in the Euro...

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

Science.gov (United States)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Socioeconomic Site Study Plan: Draft

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-07-01

Social and economic issues and concerns of the Deak Smith County site area will be evaluated during site characterization. Effects that the area could experience from a repository project include demographic, economic, community service, fiscal, and social impacts. The Socioeconomic Site Study Plan is designed to provide a strategy to assess the potential for those impacts. The Socioeconomic Site Study Plan is structured to provide an overview of the socioeconomic program requirements, objectives, and activities to be conducted during site characterization. This report will describe the study design and its rationale; data collection, management, and reporting; program schedules and milestones; site study organization and management; and quality assurance issues. 43 refs

ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

Science.gov (United States)

Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

2016-05-01

Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyun M Yang

2001-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Mitigation of negative ecological and socio-economic impacts of the Diama dam on the Senegal River Delta wetland (Mauritania), using a model based decision support system

Science.gov (United States)

Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

construction of the Diama dam in 1986 and the floodplain and estuarine areas on the Mauritanian bank were affected severely by the absence of floods. In 1994, managed flood releases were initiated in the Bell basin (4000 ha) of the Diawling National Park, as part of a rehabilitation effort. The basin was designated as a joint management area between traditional users and the Park authority and a revised management plan was developed through a participatory approach based on a topographical, hydro-climatic, ecological and socio-economic data. Hydraulic modelling was developed as a tool to support stakeholder negotiations on the desired characteristics of the managed flood releases. Initially, a water balance model was developed. The data were then integrated into a one-dimensional hydraulic model, MIKE 11 (DHI, 2000). When associated with a Digital Elevation Model and a Geographic Information System, (Arc View), the model provided a dynamic description of floods. Flood extent, water depth and flood duration data were combined with ecological and socio-economic data. The water requirements of the different stakeholders were converted to flood scenarios and the benefits and constraints analysed. A consensus scenario was reached through a participatory process. The volume of flood release required to restore the delta does not affect hydro-power generation, navigation or intensive irrigation, for which the dams in the basin were constructed. Hydraulic modelling provided useful inputs to stakeholder discussions and allows investigation of untested flood scenarios.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Socioeconomic position and survival after cervical cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ibfelt, E H; Kjær, S K; Høgdall, C

2013-01-01

In an attempt to decrease social disparities in cancer survival, it is important to consider the mechanisms by which socioeconomic position influences cancer prognosis. We aimed to investigate whether any associations between socioeconomic factors and survival after cervical cancer could...... be explained by socioeconomic differences in cancer stage, comorbidity, lifestyle factors or treatment....

Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

2017-11-01

The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

Fire Scenarios in Spain: A Territorial Approach to Proactive Fire Management in the Context of Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Montiel Molina

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Humans and fire form a coupled and co-evolving natural-human system in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. In this context, recent trends in landscape change, such as urban sprawl or the abandoning of agricultural and forest land management in line with new models of economic development and lifestyles, are leading to new fire scenarios. A fire scenario refers to the contextual factors of a fire regime, i.e., the environmental, socio-economic and policy drivers of wildfire initiation and propagation on different spatial and temporal scales. This is basically a landscape concept linking territorial dynamics (related to ecosystem evolution and settlement patterns with a fire regime (ignition causes; spread patterns; fire frequency, severity, extent and seasonality. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize these land-based fire scenarios in Spain on a national and regional scale, using a GIS-based methodology to perform a spatial analysis of the area attributes of homogenous fire spread patterns. To do this, the main variables considered are: land use/land cover, fuel load and recent fire history. The final objective is to reduce territorial vulnerability to forest wildfires and facilitate the adaptation of fire policies and land management systems to current challenges of preparedness and uncertainty management.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

regarding future fossil fuel production in SRES was investigated and compared with scientific methodology regarding reasonable future production trajectories. Historical data from the past 20 years was used to test how well the production scenarios agree with actual reality. Some of the scenarios turned out to mismatch with reality, and should be ruled out. Given the importance of coal utilization as a source of anthropogenic GHG emissions it is necessary to use realistic production trajectories that incorporate geological and physical data as well as socioeconomic parameters. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimates regarding the availability of fossil energy. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

fundamental assumptions regarding future fossil fuel production in SRES was investigated and compared with scientific methodology regarding reasonable future production trajectories. Historical data from the past 20 years was used to test how well the production scenarios agree with actual reality. Some of the scenarios turned out to mismatch with reality, and should be ruled out. Given the importance of coal utilization as a source of anthropogenic GHG emissions it is necessary to use realistic production trajectories that incorporate geological and physical data as well as socioeconomic parameters. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimates regarding the availability of fossil energy. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks

The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-01-01

Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Sympathy for the Devil: Detailing the Effects of Planning-Unit Size, Thematic Resolution of Reef Classes, and Socioeconomic Costs on Spatial Priorities for Marine Conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheok, Jessica; Pressey, Robert L; Weeks, Rebecca; Andréfouët, Serge; Moloney, James

2016-01-01

Spatial data characteristics have the potential to influence various aspects of prioritising biodiversity areas for systematic conservation planning. There has been some exploration of the combined effects of size of planning units and level of classification of physical environments on the pattern and extent of priority areas. However, these data characteristics have yet to be explicitly investigated in terms of their interaction with different socioeconomic cost data during the spatial prioritisation process. We quantify the individual and interacting effects of three factors-planning-unit size, thematic resolution of reef classes, and spatial variability of socioeconomic costs-on spatial priorities for marine conservation, in typical marine planning exercises that use reef classification maps as a proxy for biodiversity. We assess these factors by creating 20 unique prioritisation scenarios involving combinations of different levels of each factor. Because output data from these scenarios are analogous to ecological data, we applied ecological statistics to determine spatial similarities between reserve designs. All three factors influenced prioritisations to different extents, with cost variability having the largest influence, followed by planning-unit size and thematic resolution of reef classes. The effect of thematic resolution on spatial design depended on the variability of cost data used. In terms of incidental representation of conservation objectives derived from finer-resolution data, scenarios prioritised with uniform cost outperformed those prioritised with variable cost. Following our analyses, we make recommendations to help maximise the spatial and cost efficiency and potential effectiveness of future marine conservation plans in similar planning scenarios. We recommend that planners: employ the smallest planning-unit size practical; invest in data at the highest possible resolution; and, when planning across regional extents with the intention

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

The importance of socioeconomic factors in symptoms of heartburn.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Rodríguez, F; Chaves, R C M; Dib, R A; Navarro-Rodríguez, T

2011-01-01

Patients' socioeconomic status is rarely assessed during medical consultations. To correlate patients' socioeconomic conditions with symptoms of heartburn. 1184 patients who answered a questionnaire in three cities on the coast of the State of Sä Paulo, Brazil, were evaluated prospectively. Socioeconomic status was assessed using several criteria: number of bathrooms, consumer goods present at home, health conditions at home, comfort (cars and/or home helps), monthly family income and head of household's educational level. 583 patients (49.2%) reported occurrences of heartburn over the 30 days preceding the consultation, with frequencies ranging from five to thirty episodes over this period. Among patients from the city of Guarujá (low socioeconomic condition), 9.7% had never felt heartburn, while 65.7% reported occurrences, reaching statistical significance in relation to patients of medium socioeconomic condition (city of Sä Vicente) (p = 0.012). There was no difference between patients from medium socioeconomic condition and patients from Santos (high socioeconomic condition) (p = 0.997). There was a statistically significant difference in occurrence of heartburn between the patients with high socioeconomic condition and those of low socioeconomic condition (p = 0.002). The least favored socioeconomic status patients, as confirmed according to a variety of socioeconomic factors, presented greater incidence of heartburn than did the most favored social class.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2014-12-01

Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

van Zon, Sander K R; Bültmann, Ute; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

2015-01-01

The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of socioeconomic position, the health outcome, gender, and as to whether socioeconomic health inequalities are measured in absolute or in relative terms. The aim is to investigate whether absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. The study sample was derived from the baseline measurement of the LifeLines Cohort Study and consisted of 95,432 participants. Socioeconomic position was measured as educational level and household income. Physical and mental health were measured with the RAND-36. Age concerned eleven 5-years age groups. Absolute inequalities were examined by comparing means. Relative inequalities were examined by comparing Gini-coefficients. Analyses were performed for both health outcomes by both educational level and household income. Analyses were performed for all age groups, and stratified by gender. Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome, and gender. Absolute inequalities were most pronounced for mental health by household income. They were larger in younger than older age groups. Relative inequalities were most pronounced for physical health by educational level. Gini-coefficients were largest in young age groups and smallest in older age groups. Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed cross-sectionally across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. Researchers should critically consider the implications of choosing a specific age group, in addition to the indicator of socioeconomic position and health outcome

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Stroke Incidence Among Migrant Groups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agyemang, Charles; van Oeffelen, AA; Nørredam, Marie Louise

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose—Low socioeconomic status has been linked to high incidence of stroke in industrialized countries; therefore, reducing socioeconomic disparities is an important goal of health policy. The evidence on migrant groups is, however, limited and inconsistent. We assessed socioecon......Background and Purpose—Low socioeconomic status has been linked to high incidence of stroke in industrialized countries; therefore, reducing socioeconomic disparities is an important goal of health policy. The evidence on migrant groups is, however, limited and inconsistent. We assessed...... socioeconomic inequalities in relation to stroke incidence among major ethnic groups in the Netherlands. Methods—A nationwide register-based cohort study was conducted (n=2 397 446) between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, among ethnic Dutch and ethnic minority groups. Standardized disposable household...... income was used as a measure of socioeconomic position. Results—Among ethnic Dutch, the incidence of stroke was higher in the low-income group than in the high-income group (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.16–1.20). Similar socioeconomic inequalities in stroke incidence were found...

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Analysis of a Scenario for Chaotic Quantal Slowing Down of Inspiration

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

On exposure to opiates, preparations from rat brain stems have been observed to continue to produce regular expiratory signals, but to fail to produce some inspiratory signals. The numbers of expirations between two successive inspirations form an apparently random sequence. Here, we propose an explanation based on the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. A relatively simple scenario for the dynamics of interaction between the generators of expiratory and inspiratory signals produces pseudo-random behaviour of the type observed. PMID:24040967

Scenario Planning Analysis for Startup Business Case Study: Kemilau Indonesia Magazine

OpenAIRE

Mulyanto, Frieta Miasari; Sunitiyoso, Yos

2013-01-01

This research explained about the application of scenario planning analysis as solution for Kemilau Indonesia Magazine (KIM) which was born from the opportunities as information and promotion media of tourism. As a new player, KIM has several internal and external issues that impact on its survival. The technique used in this method is to collect data and information to be analyzed in order to generate predictions as a preparation for decision making process. This method give an overview of e...

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taibi, Emanuele

2015-01-01

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure. - Highlights: • Energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040 are presented. • Study in the frame of renewable energy roadmap for Cyprus supported by IRENA. • Four scenarios considered, some allowing for breaks with past trends of energy use. • Rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures is realistic. • Strong energy savings required in line with EU decarbonisation targets.

[Current status and future of telemonitoring : Scenarios for telemedical care in 2025].

Science.gov (United States)

Zippel-Schultz, Bettina; Schultz, Carsten; Helms, Thomas M

2017-09-01

Telemonitoring is an already realized implementation of digital transformation in the healthcare system. It has the potential to support and secure a sustainable and comprehensive provision of healthcare for a rising number of chronically ill patients, e. g. patients with chronic heart failure. Remote regions in particular can profit from the benefits of telemonitoring; however, so far telemonitoring services have not become truly established in the German healthcare market. Together with experts from politics, science and practice, a scenario analysis "Health Care System 2025 - A Place for Telemonitoring?" was carried out with the aim to examine the future development of the healthcare market and to draw conclusions for providers of telemonitoring services or devices. The scenario analysis contained two workshops and an expert survey and was supported by a scenario software. The current drivers and barriers of the diffusion of telemonitoring were identified and the most relevant factors that influence the future development of the healthcare market were discussed. Based on those influencing factors, three different scenarios were determined: (1) administrating rather than shaping, (2) safely into the future and (3) interconnected and digital world. In the subsequent consequence analysis activities were defined, which describe the necessary infrastructure, software instruments, organizational structures and provision of services and discuss possible activities, which prepare telemonitoring solutions for the future.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

Learning to deal with crisis in the home: Part 2 - preparing preregistration students.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Caroline E; Dickson, Caroline; Lawson, Bill; McMillan, Ailsa; Kelly, Helena

2015-12-01

The global shift of health care is from acute services to community and primary care. Therefore, registrants must be prepared to work effectively within diverse settings. This article is the second in a series discussing the preparation of nurses for contemporary health-care challenges in the community. In it, we outline the design, implementation, and evaluation of simulated emergency scenarios within an honours degree-level, pre-registration nursing curriculum in Scotland. Over 3 years, 99 final-year students participated in interactive sessions focusing on recognition and management of the deteriorating patient and emergency care. Clinical scenarios were designed and delivered collaboratively with community practitioners. Debriefing challenged the students to reflect on learning and transferability of skills of clinical reasoning and care management to the community context. Students considered the scenarios to be realistic and perceived that their confidence had increased. Development of such simulation exercises is worthy of further debate in education and practice.

Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

Socioeconomic and modifiable predictors of blood pressure control ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background. Low socioeconomic status is associated with the risk of hypertension. There are few reports of the effect of socioeconomic and potentially modifiable factors on the control of hypertension in South Africa (SA). Objectives. To investigate associations between patients' socioeconomic status and characteristics of ...

Socio-Economic Position and Suicidal Ideation in Men

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Pirkis

2017-03-01

Full Text Available People in low socio-economic positions are over-represented in suicide statistics and are at heightened risk for non-fatal suicidal thoughts and behaviours. Few studies have tried to tease out the relationship between individual-level and area-level socio-economic position, however. We used data from Ten to Men (the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health to investigate the relationship between individual-level and area-level socio-economic position and suicidal thinking in 12,090 men. We used a measure of unemployment/employment and occupational skill level as our individual-level indicator of socio-economic position. We used the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage (a composite multidimensional construct created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics that combines information from a range of area-level variables, including the prevalence of unemployment and employment in low skilled occupations as our area-level indicator. We assessed suicidal thinking using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9. We found that even after controlling for common predictors of suicidal thinking; low individual-level and area-level socio-economic position heightened risk. Individual-level socio-economic position appeared to exert the greater influence of the two; however. There is an onus on policy makers and planners from within and outside the mental health sector to take individual- and area-level socio-economic position into account when they are developing strategic initiatives.

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

Socioeconomic Development Inequalities among Geographic Units ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Socio-economic development inequality among geographic units is a phenomenon common in both the developed and developing countries. Regional inequality may result in dissension among geographic units of the same state due to the imbalance in socio-economic development. This study examines the inequality ...

Testing REACH draft technical guidance notes for conducting chemical safety assessments-the experience of a downstream user of a preparation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gade, Anne Lill; Ovrebø, Steinar; Hylland, Ketil

2008-07-01

The goal of REACH is the safe use of chemicals. This study examines the efficiency and usefulness of two draft technical guidance notes in the REACH Interim Project 3.2-2 for the development of the chemical safety report and exposure scenarios. A case study was carried out for a paint system for protection of structural steel. The focuses of the study were risk assessment of preparations based on Derived No Effect Level (DNEL) and Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) and on effective and accurate communication in the supply chain. Exposure scenarios and generic descriptions of uses, risk management measures, and exposure determinants were developed. The study showed that communication formats, software tools, and guidelines for chemical risk assessment need further adjustment to preparations and real-life situations. Web platforms may simplify such communication. The downstream formulator needs basic substance data from the substance manufacturer during the pre-registration phase to develop exposure scenarios for preparations. Default values need to be communicated in the supply chain because these were critical for the derivation of applicable risk management demands. The current guidelines which rely on the available toxicological knowledge are insufficient to advise downstream users on how to develop exposure scenarios for preparations.

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Using the factors that have a positive impact on the retention of low socioeconomic students to prepare accelerated enrolled nurses for the science units of a nursing degree. A Practice Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheila Doggrell

2015-03-01

Full Text Available At a campus in a low socioeconomic (SES area, our University allows enrolled nurses entry into the second year of a Bachelor of Nursing, but attrition is high.  Using the factors, described by Yorke and Thomas (2003 to have a positive impact on the attrition of low SES students, we developed strategies to prepare the enrolled nurses for the pharmacology and bioscience units of a nursing degree with the aim of reducing their attrition.  As a strategy, the introduction of review lectures of anatomy, physiology and microbiology, was associated with significantly reduced attrition rates. The subsequent introduction of a formative website activity of some basic concepts in bioscience and pharmacology, and a workshop addressing study skills and online resources, were associated with a further reduction in attrition rates of enrolled nursing students in a Bachelor of Nursing

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Socioeconomic determinants of disability in Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Zitko Melo, Pedro; Cabieses Valdes, Báltica

2011-10-01

Disability is a worldwide public health priority. A shift from a biomedical perspective of dysfunction to a broader social understanding of disability has been proposed. Among many different social factors described in the past, socioeconomic position remains as a key multidimensional determinant of health. The study goal was to analyze the relationship between disability and different domains of socioeconomic position in Chile. Cross-sectional analysis of an anonymized population-based survey conducted in Chile in 2006. Any disability (dichotomous variable) and 6 different types of disability were analyzed on the bases of their relationship with income quintiles, occupational status, educational level, and material living standards (quality of the housing, overcrowding rate and sanitary conditions). Confounding and interaction effects were explored using R statistical program. Income, education, occupation, and material measures of socioeconomic position, along with some sociodemographic characteristics of the population, were independently associated with the chance of being disabled in Chile. Interestingly, classic measures of socioeconomic position (income, education, and occupation) were consistently associated with any disability in Chile, whereas material living conditions were partially confounded by these classic measures. In addition to this, each type of disability showed a particular pattern of related social determinants, which also varied by age group. This study contributed to the understanding of disability in Chile and how different domains of socioeconomic position might be associated with this prevalent condition. Disability remains a complex multidimensional public health problem in Chile that requires the inclusion of a wide range of risk factors, of which socioeconomic position is particularly relevant. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Socioeconomic conditions in cultural communities: The Nez Perce Tribe, the confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation and the confederated tribes and bands of the Yakima Indian Nation: Interim profile report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stokowski, P.A.; Friedli, E.A.

1987-11-01

A series of BWIP Socioeconomic Profile Reports are being prepared. This report is one of the first set of five separate BWIP Profile Reports, which cover: economic/demographic conditions; fiscal conditions; housing characteristics; public services and facilities; and socioeconomic conditions in cultural communities. The BWIP Socioeconomic Profile Reports are designed to provide information about the characteristics of the communities in which socioeconomic impacts from BWIP may occur. The Profile Reports present a compilation of historical information about socioeconomic conditions in the affected communities. These reports are designed to provide a transition between the BWIP EA, published in 1986, the Monitoring Reports, and other technical reports associated with the BWIP SMMP and CSP. The principal objectives of the Profile Reports are to update the DOE BWIP socioeconomic database by compiling available secondary and primary data and to make this information available to both the DOE program and other interested parties. The initial Profile Reports will help identify the need for additional data. The database developed for the profiles will assemble socioeconomic data in a uniform, readily accessible format. 16 refs., 1 fig., 17 tabs

Investigating the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas region

Science.gov (United States)

Subedee, M.; Dotson, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.

2016-02-01

Anthropogenic effects throughout the twenty-first century, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, have contributed to global climatic and environmental changes. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of these changes which is occurring along the Texas Coast and is amplified by land subsidence. SLR along the northern Texas coast is impacting sensitive coastal environments as well as human populations, and industries and infrastructure supporting those populations. Sea level data from the NOAA gauge at Galveston Pier 21 has shown an increase of 2.08 feet in relative sea level in 100 years. Given an expected increase in the rate of sea level rise in the next decades, the purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth assessment on the effects of relative sea level rise on the habitat distribution of highly valuable coastal wetlands in the Galveston Bay region. This study also focuses on projecting the potential socioeconomic losses due to coastal flooding that is amplified by SLR in the region. In this study, three SLR scenarios are modeled: a scenario based on a linear extrapolation of satellite altimetry data (0.21 m by 2100); the IPCC's RCP8.5 mean scenario (0.74 m by 2100); and a high-end scenario (1.8 m by 2100) as proposed by Jevrejeva et al. (2014). A land subsidence rate calculated by developing a subsidence grid using GPS-measured subsidence monitoring and releveling data is added to all these scenarios. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to predict wetland conversion due to long-term SLR incorporating the processes of inundation, erosion, accretion, overwash, and saturation. Similarly, HAZUS-MH is used to evaluate the property damage to building stocks and the direct business interruption losses due to flooding caused by 100-year flood event scenario with three SLR scenarios. This coordinated research effort to assess the physical, environmental and policy impacts due to SLR is intended to enable policy-makers, managers, and the general public to

ICT reuse in socio-economic enterprises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ongondo, F.O.; Williams, I.D.; Dietrich, J.; Carroll, C.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We analyse ICT equipment reuse operations of socio-economic enterprises. • Most common ICT products dealt with are computers and related equipment. • In the UK in 2010, ∼143,750 appliances were reused. • Marketing and legislative difficulties are the common hurdles to reuse activities. • Socio-economic enterprises can significantly contribute to resource efficiency. - Abstract: In Europe, socio-economic enterprises such as charities, voluntary organisations and not-for-profit companies are involved in the repair, refurbishment and reuse of various products. This paper characterises and analyses the operations of socio-economic enterprises that are involved in the reuse of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment. Using findings from a survey, the paper specifically analyses the reuse activities of socio-economic enterprises in the UK from which Europe-wide conclusions are drawn. The amount of ICT products handled by the reuse organisations is quantified and potential barriers and opportunities to their operations are analysed. By-products from reuse activities are discussed and recommendations to improve reuse activities are provided. The most common ICT products dealt with by socio-economic enterprises are computers and related equipment. In the UK in 2010, an estimated 143,750 appliances were reused. However, due to limitations in data, it is difficult to compare this number to the amount of new appliances that entered the UK market or the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment generated in the same period. Difficulties in marketing products and numerous legislative requirements are the most common barriers to reuse operations. Despite various constraints, it is clear that organisations involved in reuse of ICT could contribute significantly to resource efficiency and a circular economy. It is suggested that clustering of their operations into “reuse parks” would enhance both their profile and their

ICT reuse in socio-economic enterprises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ongondo, F.O., E-mail: f.ongondo@soton.ac.uk [Centre for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Lanchester Building, University of Southampton, University Rd., Highfield, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Williams, I.D. [Centre for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Lanchester Building, University of Southampton, University Rd., Highfield, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Dietrich, J. [Technische Universität Berlin, Centre for Scientific Continuing Education and Cooperation, Cooperation and Consulting for Environmental Questions (kubus) FH10-1, Fraunhoferstraße 33-36, 10587 Berlin (Germany); Carroll, C. [Centre for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Lanchester Building, University of Southampton, University Rd., Highfield, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • We analyse ICT equipment reuse operations of socio-economic enterprises. • Most common ICT products dealt with are computers and related equipment. • In the UK in 2010, ∼143,750 appliances were reused. • Marketing and legislative difficulties are the common hurdles to reuse activities. • Socio-economic enterprises can significantly contribute to resource efficiency. - Abstract: In Europe, socio-economic enterprises such as charities, voluntary organisations and not-for-profit companies are involved in the repair, refurbishment and reuse of various products. This paper characterises and analyses the operations of socio-economic enterprises that are involved in the reuse of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment. Using findings from a survey, the paper specifically analyses the reuse activities of socio-economic enterprises in the UK from which Europe-wide conclusions are drawn. The amount of ICT products handled by the reuse organisations is quantified and potential barriers and opportunities to their operations are analysed. By-products from reuse activities are discussed and recommendations to improve reuse activities are provided. The most common ICT products dealt with by socio-economic enterprises are computers and related equipment. In the UK in 2010, an estimated 143,750 appliances were reused. However, due to limitations in data, it is difficult to compare this number to the amount of new appliances that entered the UK market or the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment generated in the same period. Difficulties in marketing products and numerous legislative requirements are the most common barriers to reuse operations. Despite various constraints, it is clear that organisations involved in reuse of ICT could contribute significantly to resource efficiency and a circular economy. It is suggested that clustering of their operations into “reuse parks” would enhance both their profile and their

Socioeconomic Determinants of Ciprofloxacin-Resistant Shigella Infections in Bangladeshi Children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randon J. Gruninger

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Shigella species (spp. are a leading cause of moderate to severe diarrhea in children worldwide. The recent emergence of quinolone-resistant Shigella spp. gives cause for concern, and South Asia has been identified as a reservoir for global spread. The influence of socioeconomic status on antimicrobial resistance in developing countries, such as those in South Asia, remains unknown. Methods: We used data collected from 2009 to 2014 from a hospital specializing in the treatment of diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to determine the relationship between ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella spp. isolates and measures of socioeconomic status in Bangladeshi children less than 5 years of age. Results: We found 2.7% (230/8, 672 of children who presented with diarrhea had Shigella spp. isolated from their stool, and 50% (115/230 had resistance to ciprofloxacin. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we found that children from families where the father’s income was in the highest quintile had significantly higher odds of having ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella spp. compared to children in the lowest quintile (OR = 6.1, CI 1.9-19. Factors protective against the development of resistance included access to improved sanitation (OR = 0.27, CI 0.11-0.7, and improved water sources (OR = 0.48, CI 0.25-0.92. We did not find a relationship between ciprofloxacin resistance and other proxies for socioeconomic status, including the presence of animals in the home, nutritional status, paternal education level, and the number of family members in the home. Conclusions: Although the associations between wealth and antimicrobial resistance are not fully understood, possible explanations include increased access and use of antibiotics, greater access to healthcare facilities and thus resistant pathogens, or greater consumption of commercially produced foods prepared with antibiotics.

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Towards predictive scenario simulations combining LH, ICRH and ECRH heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basiuk, V.; Artaud, J.F.; Becoulet, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Litaudon, X.; Mazon, D.; Passeron, C.; Peysson, Y.

2003-01-01

Reliable predictive simulations, combining current, heat and matter transport equation with a 2D equilibrium allowing diagnostic reconstruction such as Faraday angle and MSE angle are of a great interest for existing and future tokamak. The Cronos code with its various power deposition codes (Delphine, Rema, Pion) is a powerful tool to prepare such scenario in a reasonable CPU time (a few hours, for one minute plasma discharge). An example of such advanced scenario, with a negative seed of current at the center of the discharge is shown in this paper. It allows also testing new concept of feedback control, which will be directly implemented on the new real-time network of Tore-Supra. In this concept, the algorithm as to find itself the best and safe way to reach enhance performance (i.e. best plasma fusion power D-D) using different actuators (injected power,...). On this paper, we will focus on a simple example where the initial and final states are known and we will show why a steady state tokamak allowing long pulse operation is necessary for such control. (authors)

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Community College Attendance and Socioeconomic Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sueuk; Pascarella, Ernest T.

2010-01-01

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study, 1988 (NELS: 88), this paper documents differences in the socioeconomic plans of students in two-year and four-year colleges. We found attendance at a two-year college led to a modest but statistically significant disadvantage in socioeconomic plans. However, the impact of attending a…

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Operating Room Fires and Surgical Skin Preparation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Edward L; Overbey, Douglas M; Chapman, Brandon C; Jones, Teresa S; Hilton, Sarah A; Moore, John T; Robinson, Thomas N

2017-07-01

Operating room fires are "never events" that remain an under-reported source of devastating complications. One common set-up that promotes fires is the use of surgical skin preparations combined with electrosurgery and oxygen. Limited data exist examining the incidence of fires and surgical skin preparations. A standardized, ex vivo model was created with a 15 × 15 cm section of clipped porcine skin. An electrosurgical "Bovie" pencil was activated for 2 seconds on 30 Watts coagulation mode in 21% oxygen (room air), both immediately and 3 minutes after skin preparation application. Skin preparations with and without alcohol were tested, and were applied with and without pooling. Alcohol-based skin preparations included 70% isopropyl alcohol (IPA) with 2% chlorhexidine gluconate, 74% IPA with 0.7% iodine povacrylex, and plain 70% IPA. No fires occurred with nonalcohol-based preparations (p fires occurred in 38% (23 of 60) at 0 minutes and 27% (16 of 60) at 3 minutes. Alcohol-based skin preparations fuel operating room fires in common clinical scenarios. Following manufacturer guidelines and allowing 3 minutes for drying, surgical fires were still created in 1 in 10 cases without pooling and more than one-quarter of cases with pooling. Surgeons can decrease the risk of an operating room fire by using nonalcohol-based skin preparations or avoiding pooling of the preparation solution. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Energy from the desert. Very large scale photovoltaic systems: socio-economic, financial, technical and environmental aspects. Executive summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kurokawa, K.; Ito, M.; Komoto, K.; Vleuten, P. van der; Faiman, D. (eds.)

2009-05-15

This executive summary report for the International Energy Agency (IEA) summarises the objectives and concepts of very large scale photovoltaic power generation (VLS-PV) systems and takes a look at the socio-economic, financial and technical aspects involved as well as the environmental impact of such systems. Potential benefits for desert communities, agricultural development and desalination of water are topics that are looked at. The potential of VLS-PV, its energy payback time and CO{sub 2} emission rates are discussed. Case studies for the Sahara and the Gobi Dessert areas are discussed. A VLS-PV roadmap is proposed and scenarios are discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are made.

Molecular genetic contributions to socioeconomic status and intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Marioni, Riccardo E; Davies, Gail; Hayward, Caroline; Liewald, Dave; Kerr, Shona M; Campbell, Archie; Luciano, Michelle; Smith, Blair H; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Hocking, Lynne J; Hastie, Nicholas D; Wright, Alan F; Porteous, David J; Visscher, Peter M; Deary, Ian J

2014-05-01

Education, socioeconomic status, and intelligence are commonly used as predictors of health outcomes, social environment, and mortality. Education and socioeconomic status are typically viewed as environmental variables although both correlate with intelligence, which has a substantial genetic basis. Using data from 6815 unrelated subjects from the Generation Scotland study, we examined the genetic contributions to these variables and their genetic correlations. Subjects underwent genome-wide testing for common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). DNA-derived heritability estimates and genetic correlations were calculated using the 'Genome-wide Complex Trait Analyses' (GCTA) procedures. 21% of the variation in education, 18% of the variation in socioeconomic status, and 29% of the variation in general cognitive ability was explained by variation in common SNPs (SEs ~ 5%). The SNP-based genetic correlations of education and socioeconomic status with general intelligence were 0.95 (SE 0.13) and 0.26 (0.16), respectively. There are genetic contributions to intelligence and education with near-complete overlap between common additive SNP effects on these traits (genetic correlation ~ 1). Genetic influences on socioeconomic status are also associated with the genetic foundations of intelligence. The results are also compatible with substantial environmental contributions to socioeconomic status.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Zon, Sander K. R.; Bultmann, Ute; de Leon, Carlos F. Mendes; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

2015-01-01

Background The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Science.gov (United States)

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Socioeconomic differences in perinatal health and disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Helweg-Larsen, Karin

2011-01-01

been used to examine the influence of socioeconomic factors on perinatal health. Conclusion: Danish register data is an invaluable source of information on socioeconomic differences in perinatal health. Danish registers continue to provide excellent opportunities for research and surveillance...

Prediction is difficult, preparation is critical and possible

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zilli, Romano; Dalton, Luke; Ooms, Wim

at the level of the source of infection, transmission pathways, and the outcomes. Changes to such challenges and uncertainties are inevitable and foresight in identifying strategies is required for us to prepare for a sustainable future. The EU-funded Global Network on Infectious Diseases of Animals...... and technological needs, including research capacity and support structures to prevent, control or mitigate animal health and zoonotic challenges for 2030 and beyond. While our ability to predict the future is often limited, being prepared to engage with whatever may happen is critical. Methods: Foresight workshops...... to give an overall list in which transnational data sharing, knowledge transfer, public-private partnerships, vaccinology/immunology, vector control, antimicrobial resistance, socioeconomics, genetics/bioinformatics and utilisation of big data rated highly. Conclusion: The outputs of the STAR...

Measuring socio-economic position in dietary research: is choice of socio-economic indicator important?

Science.gov (United States)

Turrell, Gavin; Hewitt, Belinda; Patterson, Carla; Oldenburg, Brian

2003-04-01

To examine the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and diet, by assessing the unadjusted and simultaneously adjusted (independent) contributions of education, occupation and household income to food purchasing behaviour. The sample was randomly selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design, and the response rate was 66.4%. Data were collected by face-to-face interview. Food purchasing was examined on the basis of three composite indices that reflected a household's choice of grocery items (including meat and chicken), fruit and vegetables. Brisbane City, Australia, 2000. : Non-institutionalised residents of private dwellings located in 50 small areas (Census Collectors Districts). When shopping, respondents in lower socio-economic groups were less likely to purchase grocery foods that were high in fibre and low in fat, salt and sugar. Disadvantaged groups purchased fewer types of fresh fruits and vegetables, and less often, than their counterparts from more advantaged backgrounds. When the relationship between SEP and food purchasing was examined using each indicator separately, education and household income made an unadjusted contribution to purchasing behaviour for all three food indices; however, occupation was significantly related only with the purchase of grocery foods. When education and occupation were simultaneously adjusted for each other, the socio-economic patterning with food purchase remained largely unchanged, although the strength of the associations was attenuated. When household income was introduced into the analysis, the association between education, occupation and food purchasing behaviour was diminished or became non-significant; income, however, showed a strong, graded association with food choice. The food purchasing behaviours of socio-economically disadvantaged groups were least in accord with dietary guideline recommendations, and hence are more consistent with greater risk for the development of diet

Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

Science.gov (United States)

Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

2016-12-01

A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Gender differences in socioeconomic inequality in mortality

OpenAIRE

Mustard, C; Etches, J

2003-01-01

Objectives: There is uncertainty about whether position in a socioeconomic hierarchy confers different mortality risks on men and women. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of gender differences in socioeconomic inequality in risk of death.

Impact of socioeconomic status on municipal solid waste generation rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, D; Kumar, A; Samadder, S R

2016-03-01

The solid waste generation rate was expected to vary in different socioeconomic groups due to many environmental and social factors. This paper reports the assessment of solid waste generation based on different socioeconomic parameters like education, occupation, income of the family, number of family members etc. A questionnaire survey was conducted in the study area to identify the different socioeconomic groups that may affect the solid waste generation rate and composition. The average waste generated in the municipality is 0.41 kg/capita/day in which the maximum waste was found to be generated by lower middle socioeconomic group (LMSEG) with average waste generation of 0.46 kg/capita/day. Waste characterization indicated that there was no much difference in the composition of wastes among different socioeconomic groups except ash residue and plastic. Ash residue is found to increase as we move lower down the socioeconomic groups with maximum (31%) in lower socioeconomic group (LSEG). The study area is a coal based city hence application of coal and wood as fuel for cooking in the lower socioeconomic group is the reason for high amount of ash content. Plastic waste is maximum (15%) in higher socioeconomic group (HSEG) and minimum (1%) in LSEG. Food waste is a major component of generated waste in almost every socioeconomic group with maximum (38%) in case of HSEG and minimum (28%) in LSEG. This study provides new insights on the role of various socioeconomic parameters on generation of household wastes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Envisioning Adaptive Strategies to Change: Participatory Scenarios for Agropastoral Semiarid Systems in Nicaragua

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federica Ravera

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Historically, the semiarid social-ecological systems of the dry Central American corridor have proven resilient to pressures. However, in the last century, these systems have experienced huge environmental and socioeconomic changes that have increased the vulnerability of local livelihoods to shocks. New approaches are needed to capture complex, uncertain, cross-scale and nonlinear relationships among drivers of change and vulnerability. Therefore, to tackle this challenge, we have applied a participatory and interdisciplinary methodological framework of vulnerability assessment to a case study in northern Nicaragua. We triangulated a range of information and data from participatory and scientific research to explore historical and current drivers of changes that affect the system's components and indicators of vulnerability, represented in a 3-dimensional space in terms of ecological resilience, the socioeconomic ability of individuals to adapt to change, and an institutional capacity to buffer and respond to crisis. A projection of climatic changes combined with a participatory scenario analysis helped, then, to heuristically analyze tendencies of vulnerability in the future and to explore what policy options might enhance the system's adaptive capacity to face new pressures. Our work primarily contributes to an empirical understanding of key factors that influence vulnerability and learning about local strategies to adapt to change in semiarid agropastoral systems in Central America. We also make a methodological contribution by testing the use of a multidimensional vulnerability framework as a way of stimulating discussion among researchers, local stakeholders, and policy makers.

Variations in health status within and between socioeconomic strata

OpenAIRE

Ferrer, R; Palmer, R

2004-01-01

Objectives: To analyse the variability in health status within as well as between socioeconomic groups. What is the range of individual variability in the health effects of socioeconomic status? Is the adverse effect of lower socioeconomic status uniform across the entire distribution of health status?

Gender differences in asthma prevalence: variations with socioeconomic disadvantage.

Science.gov (United States)

Chittleborough, Catherine R; Taylor, Anne W; Dal Grande, Eleonora; Gill, Tiffany K; Grant, Janet F; Adams, Robert J; Wilson, David H; Ruffin, Richard E

2010-01-01

Socioeconomic inequalities in health have been shown to vary for different diseases and by gender. This study aimed to examine gender differences in associations between asthma and socioeconomic disadvantage. Socioeconomic variables were assessed among men and women in the North West Adelaide Health Study, a representative population cohort (n = 4060) aged 18 years and over in metropolitan South Australia. Asthma was determined from spirometry and self-reported doctor diagnosis. The prevalence of asthma was 12.0% (95% CI: 11.1-13.1), and was significantly higher among women (13.5%) than men (10.5%). For participants aged 18-64 years a higher prevalence of asthma was associated with an education level of secondary school or lower, or not being in the paid labour force among men, and with a gross annual household income of $20,000 or less among women. Among socioeconomically advantaged groups, the prevalence of asthma was significantly higher among women than men. Socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with higher asthma prevalence, although this varied by gender depending on the indicator of socioeconomic position used. Men with low education or those not employed in the paid labour force had higher asthma prevalence than more socioeconomically advantaged men. Women with low income had higher asthma prevalence than those with higher income. Among all socioeconomically advantaged groups, and also the low-income group, women experienced a higher prevalence of asthma than men.

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

2017-12-01

Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

Sustainable Livestock Farming for Improving Socio-Economic Condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Shamsuddoha

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Sustainability is the most effective concept to improve socio-economic condition, including environment. Constructive socio-economic changes are getting priority in recent years among academia and business sector in Bangladesh. Bangladesh poultry sub-sector has long supply chains having associated with various stakeholders. In this paper, a case poultry farm was taken to examine a production process that links with socio-economic benefits. Design science method under the quantitative paradigm was chosen to develop a model for the case industry. A Simulation model was developed using simul8 software to construct the real poultry operation. The objectives of this paper are to construct a sustainable model for a case poultry industry along with socio-economic issues. Later, simulated model output will examine it through various performance indicators (KPIs to find out the impacts on socio-economic benefits. Numbers of KPIs have been briefly discussed in light of the research problem to illustrate positive effects of sustainable production.

Socio-economic factors influencing cassava production in Kuje and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examined socio-economic factors influencing output level of cassava production in Kuje and Abaji Area Councils of Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The specific objectives were to:identify the socio-economic characteristics of sampled cassava farmers in the study area; determine the socio-economic factors ...

Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2000-01-01

Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

Socioeconomic inequality in malnutrition in developing countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Van de Poel (Ellen); A.R. Hosseinpoor (Ahmad); N. Speybroeck (Niko); T.G.M. van Ourti (Tom); J. Vega (Jeanette)

2008-01-01

textabstractObjective: The objectives of this study were to report on socioeconomic inequality in childhood malnutrition in the developing world, to provide evidence for an association between socioeconomic inequality and the average level of malnutrition, and to draw attention to different patterns

Race, Socioeconomic Status, and Health during Childhood: A Longitudinal Examination of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Parental Socioeconomic Timing and Child Obesity Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Antwan

2018-04-11

Prior research suggests that socioeconomic standing during the early years of life, particularly in utero, is associated with child health. However, it is unclear whether socioeconomic benefits are only maximized at very young ages. Moreover, given the link between socioeconomic status (SES) and race, research is inconclusive whether any SES benefits during those younger ages would uniformly benefit all racial and ethnic groups. Using 1986-2014 data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79), this study examines the impact of socioeconomic timing on child weight outcomes by race. Specifically, this research investigates whether specific points exist where socioeconomic investment would have higher returns on child health. Findings suggest that both the timing and the type of socioeconomic exposure is important to understanding child weight status. SES, particularly mother's employment and father's education, is important in determining child health, and each measure is linked to weight gain differently for White, Black, and Hispanic children at specific ages. Policies such as granting more educational access for men and work-family balance for women are discussed.

Race, Socioeconomic Status, and Health during Childhood: A Longitudinal Examination of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Parental Socioeconomic Timing and Child Obesity Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antwan Jones

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Prior research suggests that socioeconomic standing during the early years of life, particularly in utero, is associated with child health. However, it is unclear whether socioeconomic benefits are only maximized at very young ages. Moreover, given the link between socioeconomic status (SES and race, research is inconclusive whether any SES benefits during those younger ages would uniformly benefit all racial and ethnic groups. Using 1986–2014 data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79, this study examines the impact of socioeconomic timing on child weight outcomes by race. Specifically, this research investigates whether specific points exist where socioeconomic investment would have higher returns on child health. Findings suggest that both the timing and the type of socioeconomic exposure is important to understanding child weight status. SES, particularly mother’s employment and father’s education, is important in determining child health, and each measure is linked to weight gain differently for White, Black, and Hispanic children at specific ages. Policies such as granting more educational access for men and work-family balance for women are discussed.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

Science.gov (United States)

Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

1999-01-01

A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

[Socioeconomic inequality and health in Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Pérez-Salgado, Diana; Tamez-González, Silvia

2015-01-01

To establish the relationship between socioeconomic inequality and health problems amongst Mexican population reviewing studies with national or regional representation. A literature search was performed at national and international databases using the following keywords: health, disease, mental disorders, nutrition, food, social class, social status, unemployment, employment, occupation, income, wage, poverty and socioeconomic status. Reports of national or regional surveys conducted from the nineties were included. Mostly, diseases events were more common among people from low socioeconomic status: anencephaly, viral infections, anemia, transit accidents by run over, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, affective disorder, anxiety and substances abuse; some malignancies, difficulties to perform activities of daily living, and poor perceived health status. On the opposite, as it goes down in the social scale, are less frequent some protective factors (e.g. fruits or vegetables intake and physical activity) and there is less access to medical aid and preventive interventions (e.g. condom use or diagnosis and treatment for HIV infection, hypertension or obesity). Socioeconomic status affects all living conditions; therefore, its effects are not confined to certain diseases, but a general precarious state of health. The conceptual and public policy implications related with social inequalities in health are discussed.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D'Andrea

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Gendered socioeconomic conditions and HIV risk behaviours ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Despite this possibility, there are surprisingly few definitive studies that examine the effects of socioeconomic status on HIV risk and prevention behaviours among youth in South Africa. Using household survey data collected in 2001, this study investigates how socioeconomic disadvantage has influenced the sexual ...

Family socioeconomic status and nutrition habits of 7-8 year old children: cross-sectional Lithuanian COSI study.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrauskienė, Aušra; Žaltauskė, Vilma; Albavičiūtė, Edita

2015-04-23

Nutritional habits are a useful way to characterize whole diets and they are also known to be influenced by a wide range of social and economic factors. The above factors in each country may have different effect on children's eating habits. In Lithuania the data of children nutrition in association with socio-economic status of family is poor. There are few studies done, where links between nutrition habits of children and socio-economic status of family was evaluated. The aim of this paper is to evaluate association among nutrition habits of first-formers and family socio-economic status in Lithuania. Data were obtained participating in the international study, which was performed in all ten districts of Lithuania. A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2010, using the protocol and methodology prepared by the experts from the WHO and countries participating in the Initiative. The data were collected by means of COSI standardized questionnaire, which was filled out by parents of selected first-formers'. In this paper a part of questions regarding children nutrition habits and parents' socio-economic status is presented. Statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS 20.0 software for Windows. Correlation among variables was evaluated by χ (2). Links among nutrition habits of first-formers and family socioeconomic status were determined using binary logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). For all tests p eat breakfast every day or 4-6 times a week. Significant differences were found between breakfast consumption and gender - girls eat breakfast less frequently than boys. Odds ratio of children daily breakfast consumption were 1.3 times higher in families where fathers' were older than 30 years comparing with younger fathers. Meanwhile mothers' age had significant influence just on children daily soft drinks with sugar consumption. Results from the national survey of primary school age children of Lithuania reveals

Association between cardiovascular disease and socioeconomic level in Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro, Sónia; Furtado, Cláudia; Pereira, João

2013-11-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity, mortality and disability in Portugal. Socioeconomic level is known to influence health status but there is scant evidence on socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease in Portugal. To analyze the distribution of cardiovascular disease in the Portuguese population according to socioeconomic status. We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the fourth National Health Survey on a representative sample of the Portuguese population. Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular disease, risk factors and number of medical visits were analyzed using odds ratios according to socioeconomic status (household equivalent income) in the adult population (35-74 years). Comparisons focused on the top and bottom 50% and 10% of household income distribution. Of the 21 807 individuals included, 53.3% were female, and mean age was 54 ± 11 years. Cardiovascular disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity were associated with lower socioeconomic status, while smoking was associated with higher status; number of medical visits and psychological distress showed no association. When present, inequality was greater at the extremes of income distribution. The results reveal an association between morbidity, lifestyle and socioeconomic status. They also suggest that besides improved access to effective medical intervention, there is a need for a comprehensive strategy for health promotion and disease prevention that takes account of individual, cultural and socioeconomic characteristics. Copyright © 2012 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Incorporating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Seasonal Crop Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa to Support National/Regional/Local Decision Makers

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

The USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides seasonal assessments of crop conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and other food insecure regions. These assessments and current livelihood, nutrition, market conditions and conflicts are used to generate food security scenarios that help national, regional and local decision makers target their resources and mitigate socio-economic losses. Among the various tools that FEWS NET uses is the FAO's Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The WRSI is a simple yet powerful crop assessment model that incorporates current moisture conditions (at the time of the issuance of forecast), precipitation scenarios, potential evapotranspiration and crop parameters to categorize crop conditions into different classes ranging from "failure" to "very good". The WRSI tool has been shown to have a good agreement with local crop yields in the GHA region. At present, the precipitation scenarios used to drive the WRSI are based on either a climatological forecast (that assigns equal chances of occurrence to all possible scenarios and has no skill over the forecast period) or a sea-surface temperature anomaly based scenario (which at best have skill at the seasonal scale). In both cases, the scenarios fail to capture the skill that can be attained by initial atmospheric conditions (i.e., medium-range weather forecasts). During the middle of a cropping season, when a week or two of poor rains can have a devastating effect, two weeks worth of skillful precipitation forecasts could improve the skill of the crop scenarios. With this working hypothesis, we examine the value of incorporating medium-range weather forecasts in improving the skill of crop scenarios in the GHA region. We use the NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) weather forecasts and examine the skill of crop scenarios generated using the GEFS weather forecasts with respect to the scenarios based solely on the climatological forecast

Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A. [Colenco Power Consulting AG, Baden (Switzerland)

2001-07-01

This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises.

Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises

EU socio-economic research on fusion: Findings and program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tosato, G.C.

2003-01-01

In 1997 the European Commission launched a Socio-Economic Research program to study under which conditions future fusion power plants may become competitive, compatible with the energy supply system and acceptable for the public. It has been shown, among others, that: 1) local communities are ready to support the construction of an experimental fusion facility, if appropriate communication and awareness campaigns are carried out; 2) since the externalities are much lower than for competitors, fusion power plants may become the major producer of base load electricity at the end of the century in Europe, if climate changes have to be mitigated, if the construction of new nuclear fission power plants continues to be constrained and if nuclear fusion power plants become commercially available in 2050. Cooperating with major international organizations, the program for next year aims to demonstrating, through technical economic programming models and global multi-regional energy environmental scenarios, that the potential global benefits of fusion power plants in the second half of the century largely outdo the RD and D costs borne in the first half to make it available. Making the public aware of such benefits through field experiences will be part of the program. (author)

Socio-Economic Characteristics of Registered Cocoa Farmers in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF HORSFALL

ABSTRACT: This study examined the socio-economic characteristics of registered cocoa farmers in Edo State; ... Key words: socio-economics, characteristics, registered cocoa farmers. ... international exchange market in two world currencies ...

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Socio-Economic Impact Of Onchocerciasis With Particular ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The socio-economic impact of onchocerciasis (river blindness) on humans is reviewed with special reference to females and children. The results of many studies reveal that onchocerciasis is usuallya serious threat to public health and an impediment to socio-economic development in areas wth high intensity and high ...

Large Mines and the Community : Socioeconomic and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

1 janv. 2001 ... Large Mines and the Community : Socioeconomic and Environmental Effects in Latin America, Canada, and Spain. Couverture du livre Large Mines and the Community : Socioeconomic and Environmental Effects in Latin America. Directeur(s):. Gary McMahon et Felix Remy. Maison(s) d'édition: Banque ...

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Borisova

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the article deals with the development of an algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy. Since the "Strategy for socio-economic development of the Lipetsk region for the period until 2020" does not contain scenarios for the development of the region, the algorithm for choosing the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formalized. The scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region according to the indicators of the Program of social and economic development are calculated: "Quality of life index", "Average monthly nominal wage", "Level of registered unemployment", "Growth rate of gross regional product", "The share of innovative products in the total volume of goods shipped, works performed and services rendered by industrial organizations", "Total volume of atmospheric pollution per unit GRP" and "Satisfaction of the population with the activity of executive bodies of state power of the region". Based on the calculation of development scenarios, the dynamics of the values of these indicators was developed in the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region in 2016–2020. Discounted financial costs of economic participants for realization of scenarios of development of economy of the Lipetsk region are estimated. It is shown that the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation assumes the choice of a paradigm for the innovative development of territories and requires all participants in economic relations at the regional level to concentrate their resources on the creation of new science-intensive products. An assessment of the effects of the implementation of reasonable scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region was carried out. It is shown that the most acceptable is the "base" scenario, which assumes a consistent change in the main indicators. The specific economic

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Application of the RESRAD computer code to VAMP scenario S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanapragasam, E.K.; Yu, C.

1997-03-01

The RESRAD computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory was among 11 models from 11 countries participating in the international Scenario S validation of radiological assessment models with Chernobyl fallout data from southern Finland. The validation test was conducted by the Multiple Pathways Assessment Working Group of the Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP) program coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. RESRAD was enhanced to provide an output of contaminant concentrations in environmental media and in food products to compare with measured data from southern Finland. Probability distributions for inputs that were judged to be most uncertain were obtained from the literature and from information provided in the scenario description prepared by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. The deterministic version of RESRAD was run repeatedly to generate probability distributions for the required predictions. These predictions were used later to verify the probabilistic RESRAD code. The RESRAD predictions of radionuclide concentrations are compared with measured concentrations in selected food products. The radiological doses predicted by RESRAD are also compared with those estimated by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety

Socioeconomic position and the risk of spontaneous abortion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Norsker, Filippa Nyboe; Espenhain, Laura; rogvi, Sofie

2012-01-01

To investigate the relationship between different indicators of socioeconomic position and the risk of spontaneous abortion.......To investigate the relationship between different indicators of socioeconomic position and the risk of spontaneous abortion....

Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

2015-12-01

A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

Socio-economic analysis of the risk management of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) in China in the context of the Stockholm Convention.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Jing; Liu, Jian-Guo; Hu, Jian-Xin; Yi, Shan

2016-05-01

Socio-economic analysis (SEA) plays an important role in decision-making on risk management actions for certain chemicals under Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) in developing countries. This paper showed the first holistic and quantitative SEA case study on that by developing a country-specific SEA framwork and methodologies and applying the case of HBCD phase-out in China under the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). The study indicates that, under the possible scenarios of 10 years and 5 years , the economic costs of HBCD phase-out in China would be between 9.032 and 19.021 billion RMB. Although the total economic costs seems to be significant, it would only have a marginal impact on the house building industry with a likely cost increase by about 0.07‰-0.14‰. Meanwhile, the HBCD phase-out may render significant environmental and health benefits, including about 23-29 tons of HBCD release prevented to the environment, 1.142-1.469 million tons of potentially HBCD contained hazardous wastes avoided, along with significant reduction from 58% up to almost 100% in local environmental concentrations of HBCD, and about 0.0996-0.128 million workers at risk avoided and at least 3.067-4.033 billion RMB of the health care savings. While the scenario of phasing out HBCD over 10 years would be less costly than the scenario of that over 5 years, the later scenario suggested much greater environmental and health benefits for China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

Socio-economic and tobacco mediation of ethnic inequalities in mortality over time: Repeated census-mortality cohort studies, 1981 to 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Blakely, Tony; Disney, George; Valeri, Linda; Atkinson, June; Teng, Andrea; Wilson, Nick; Gurrin, Lyle

2018-04-10

Racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality may be reducible by addressing socio-economic factors and smoking. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate trends over multiple decades in: 1) mediation of racial/ethnic inequalities in mortality (between Māori and Europeans in New Zealand [NZ]) by socio-economic factors, 2) additional mediation through smoking; and 3) inequalities had there never been smoking. We estimated natural (1 and 2 above) and controlled mediation effects (3 above) in census-mortality cohorts for 1981-84 (1.1 million people), 1996-99 (1.5 million) and 2006-11 (1.5 million) for 25-74 year olds in NZ, using a weighting of regression predicted outcomes. Socio-economic factors explained 46% of male inequalities in all three cohorts and made an increasing contribution over time among females from 30.4% (95% CI 18.1% to 42.7%) in 1981-84 to 41.9% (36.0% to 48.0%). Including smoking with socioeconomic factors only modestly altered the percentage mediated for males, but more substantially increased it for females, e.g. 7.7% (5.5% to 10.0%) in 2006-11.A counterfactual scenario of having eradicated tobacco in the past (but unchanged socio-economic distribution) lowered mortality for all sex-by-ethnic groups, and resulted in a 12.2% (2.9% to 20.8%) and 21.2% (11.6% and 31.0%) reduction in the absolute mortality gap between Māori and Europeans in 2006-11, for males and females respectively. Our study predicts that, in this high-income country, reducing socio-economic disparities between ethnic groups would greatly reduce ethnic inequalities in mortality over the long run. Eradicating tobacco would notably reduce ethnic inequalities in absolute but not relative mortality.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Socioeconomic study: WPPSS Nuclear Projects 1 and 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-04-01

A study is presented which is primarily concerned with the identification of those WNP-1 and WNP-4 impacts which place stress upon the socioeconomic structure of the Tri-City region. The study fulfills three objectives: first, to describe the socioeconomic implications of the proposed projects and the components of socioeconomic structure characterizing the study region; second, to postulate the potential impacts of the projects as well as possible mitigating measures on these components; and third, to present overall evaluation and planning strategies

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Socioeconomic inequalities in lung cancer mortality in 16 European populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Heyden, J. H. A.; Schaap, M. M.; Kunst, A. E.; Esnaola, S.; Borrell, C.; Cox, B.; Leinsalu, M.; Stirbu, I.; Kalediene, R.; Deboosere, P.; Mackenbach, J. P.; van Oyen, H.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to describe socioeconomic inequalities in lung cancer mortality in Europe and to get further insight into socioeconomic inequalities in lung cancer mortality in different European populations by relating these to socioeconomic inequalities in overall mortality and smoking

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Pre-crash scenarios at road junctions: A clustering method for car crash data.

Science.gov (United States)

Nitsche, Philippe; Thomas, Pete; Stuetz, Rainer; Welsh, Ruth

2017-10-01

Given the recent advancements in autonomous driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual simulation environments or on real-world test tracks. This paper presents a novel data analysis method including the preparation, analysis and visualization of car crash data, to identify the critical pre-crash scenarios at T- and four-legged junctions as a basis for testing the safety of automated driving systems. The presented method employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth "On-the-Spot" database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. The results support existing findings on road junction accidents and provide benchmark situations for safety performance tests in order to reduce the possible number parameter combinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

ICT reuse in socio-economic enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Ongondo, F O; Williams, I D; Dietrich, J; Carroll, C

2013-12-01

In Europe, socio-economic enterprises such as charities, voluntary organisations and not-for-profit companies are involved in the repair, refurbishment and reuse of various products. This paper characterises and analyses the operations of socio-economic enterprises that are involved in the reuse of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment. Using findings from a survey, the paper specifically analyses the reuse activities of socio-economic enterprises in the U.K. from which Europe-wide conclusions are drawn. The amount of ICT products handled by the reuse organisations is quantified and potential barriers and opportunities to their operations are analysed. By-products from reuse activities are discussed and recommendations to improve reuse activities are provided. The most common ICT products dealt with by socio-economic enterprises are computers and related equipment. In the U.K. in 2010, an estimated 143,750 appliances were reused. However, due to limitations in data, it is difficult to compare this number to the amount of new appliances that entered the U.K. market or the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment generated in the same period. Difficulties in marketing products and numerous legislative requirements are the most common barriers to reuse operations. Despite various constraints, it is clear that organisations involved in reuse of ICT could contribute significantly to resource efficiency and a circular economy. It is suggested that clustering of their operations into "reuse parks" would enhance both their profile and their products. Reuse parks would also improve consumer confidence in and subsequently sales of the products. Further, it is advocated that industrial networking opportunities for the exchange of by-products resulting from the organisations' activities should be investigated. The findings make two significant contributions to the current literature. One, they provide a detailed insight into the reuse operations

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

Multiple socio-economic circumstances and healthy food habits.

Science.gov (United States)

Lallukka, T; Laaksonen, M; Rahkonen, O; Roos, E; Lahelma, E

2007-06-01

To examine associations between seven indicators of socio-economic circumstances and healthy food habits, while taking into account assumed temporal order between these socio-economic indicators. Data were derived from cross-sectional postal questionnaires in 2000-2002. Socio-economic circumstances were assessed by parental education, childhood economic difficulties, own education, occupational class, household income, home ownership and current economic difficulties. Healthy food habits were measured by an index consisting of consumption of fresh vegetables, fruit or berries, rye bread, fish and choosing vegetable fats on bread and oil in cooking. Sequential logistic regression models were used, adjusting for age and marital status. Employees of the City of Helsinki, Finland (n=8960, aged 40-60 years). Healthy food habits were reported by 28% of women and by 17% of men. Own education, occupational class, household income, home ownership and current economic difficulties were associated with healthy food habits. These associations were attenuated but mainly remained after mutual adjustments for the socio-economic indicators. Among women, a pathway was found suggesting that part of the effects of education on food habits were mediated through occupational class. Employees in higher and lower socio-economic positions differ in their food habits, and those in lower positions and economically disadvantaged are less likely to report healthy food habits. Health promotion programmes and food policies should encourage healthier food choices among those in lower socio-economic positions and among those with economic difficulties in particular.

Socio-economic considerations of cleaning Greater Vancouver's air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-08-01

Socio-economic considerations of better air quality on the Greater Vancouver population and economy were discussed. The purpose of the study was to provide socio-economic information to staff and stakeholders of the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) who are participating in an Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) development process and the Sustainable Region Initiative (SRI) process. The study incorporated the following methodologies: identification and review of Canadian, American, and European quantitative socio-economic, cost-benefit, cost effectiveness, competitiveness and health analyses of changes in air quality and measures to improve air quality; interviews with industry representatives in Greater Vancouver on competitiveness impacts of air quality changes and ways to improve air quality; and a qualitative analysis and discussion of secondary quantitative information that identifies and evaluates socio-economic impacts arising from changes in Greater Vancouver air quality. The study concluded that for the Greater Vancouver area, the qualitative analysis of an improvement in Greater Vancouver air quality shows positive socio-economic outcomes, as high positive economic efficiency impacts are expected along with good social quality of life impacts. 149 refs., 30 tabs., 6 appendices

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Socioeconomic trends in radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barneveld Binkhuysen, F.H.

1998-01-01

For radiology the socioeconomic environment is a topic of increasing importance. In addition to the well-known important scientific developments in radiology such as interventional MRI, several other major trends can be recognized: (1) changes in the delivery of health care, in which all kinds of managed care are developing and will influence the practice of radiology, and (2) the process of computerization and digitization. The socioeconomic environment of radiology will be transformed by the developments in managed care, teleradiology and the integration of information systems. If radiologists want to manage future radiology departments they must have an understanding of the changes in the fields of economics and politics that are taking place and that will increasingly influence radiology. Some important and recognizable aspects of these changes will be described here. (orig.)

Socioeconomic status and risk of rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Line Merete Blak; Jacobsen, Søren; Klarlund, Mette

2006-01-01

To examine whether markers of socioeconomic status (SES) are associated with risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and if so, whether selected lifestyle-related factors could explain this association.......To examine whether markers of socioeconomic status (SES) are associated with risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and if so, whether selected lifestyle-related factors could explain this association....

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

socio-economic population

African Journals Online (AJOL)

not ideal, underscores the peculiarities of experience in a general hospital in a low socio-economic setting. In conclusion, hernia surgery in a general hospital setting can be safely performed with the judicious use of intravenous Kctamine in children and emergency adult surgery as long as awareness of its side-effects and.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management - Part 1: Model development

Science.gov (United States)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Effective policies, leading to sustainable management solutions for land and water resources, require a full understanding of interactions between socio-economic and physical processes. However, the complex nature of these interactions, combined with limited stakeholder engagement, hinders the incorporation of socio-economic components into physical models. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socio-economic factors. A stepwise process to quantify the GBSDM is presented, along with governing equations and model assumptions. Sub-modules of the GBSDM, describing agricultural, economic, water and farm management factors, are linked together with feedbacks and finally coupled with the physically based SAHYSMOD model through commonly used tools (i.e., MS Excel and a Python script). The overall integrated model (GBSDM-SAHYSMOD) can be used to help facilitate the role of stakeholders with limited expertise and resources in model and policy development and implementation. Following the development of the integrated model, a testing methodology was used to validate the structure and behavior of the integrated model. Model robustness under different operating conditions was also assessed. The model structure was able to produce anticipated real behaviours under the tested scenarios, from which it can be concluded that the formulated structures generate the right behaviour for the right reasons.

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

The Influence of Household Socio-Economic Characteristics and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Influence of Household Socio-Economic Characteristics and Awareness on Aflatoxin Contamination of Maize in Makueni County, Kenya. ... East African Medical Journal ... The results further showed significant associations of some socio-economic characteristics and awareness with aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Note about socio-economic calculations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landex, Alex; Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Salling, Kim Bang

2006-01-01

these effects must be described qualitatively. This note describes the socio-economic evaluation based on market prices and not factor prices which has been the tradition in Denmark till now. This is due to the recommendation from the Ministry of Transport to start using calculations based on market prices...... alternative. In socio-economic evaluations it is intended to describe the effects in economic terms whenever possible (”+” is used when it is positive for the society, and ”–” when it is negative for the society). However, not all the effects for the society can be described in economic terms, and instead...

Socioeconomic and political issues in radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stiles, R.G.; Belt, H.C.

1990-01-01

This paper compares editorials on socioeconomic and political issues published in the radiologic literature during 1920-1940 with those published during 1970-1990. Radiologists literature indexes were searched for editorials on socioeconomic and political issues published during two 20-year periods: 1920-1940 and 1970- 1990. One hundred editorials from each period were chosen from two major journals. The editorials were organized into 20 categories including turf, subspecialization, radiologist as physician, public relations, governmental intervention (socialized medicine), future of radiology, overuse of studies

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Socioeconomic inequalities in adolescent smoking across 35 countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moor, Irene; Rathmann, Katharina; Lenzi, Michela

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Tobacco-related heath inequalities are a major public health concern, with smoking being more prevalent among lower socioeconomic groups. The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanisms leading to socioeconomic inequalities in smoking among 15-year-old adolescents by examining ...

Overview of Site Preparation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garin, P.

2006-01-01

The preparation of Cadarache as the host of ITER is organised at a double level: Europe, since the beginning of the candidature in 2001, is coordinating the so-called European ITER Site Studies; France, as the host country, has put in place a dedicated structure at a decisional level (close to the government), and operational level in the PACA region with two entities: The Agency Iter France (AIF), inside the CEA, interlocutor of international and European entities, in charge of site preparation and fund recollection; An accompanying prefectoral mission, in charge mainly of road adaptation and the international school. The paper will cover all the aspects related to the preparation of the implementation of ITER: Technical aspects: the progress of site preparation itself, its servicing (water supply, electrical supply, Internet...), the road adaptation between the large harbour of Fos-sur-mer and Cadarache, etc. will be detailed. Regulatory procedures: in the framework of the delegation that the ITER partners gave to the CEA/AIF on 14 th September 2005, two main large files are in progress: The public debate, organised by an independent authority, informs the population of the challenges and impacts of ITER in Provence; The safety documents: the writing of the preliminary safety report, which will be submitted to the Nuclear Safety Authority and the files submitted to the public during the public enquiries are ongoing. Socioeconomic aspects: the welcome of ITER staff and their families is operational, via a dedicated Welcome Office; the location of an international school in Manosque leads now to its pre-figuration. The overall organisation will be described, as well as all planning forecast for the coming years, leading to the start of construction. (author)

SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INEQUALITIES AMONG ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

and patterns in the socio-economic development in the study area.The pattern ... Department of Urban and Regional Planning ... perspective of network density of paved road ... available and a number of cooperative .... The case of Akwa Ibom.

COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Valeriu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

Evaluation of socio-economic effects of R and D results at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. 2. Socio-economic evaluation of the basic research at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-11-01

The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), as a core organization devoted to comprehensive nuclear energy research, has steadily promoted various types of research and development (R and D) studies since its establishment in June 1956. Research activities are aimed at performing (1) R and D for nuclear energy, (2) the utilization and application of radiation-based technologies, and (3) the establishment of basic and fundamental research in the nuclear field. Last year, the socio-economic effects on items (1) and (2) were qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of item (3) from the viewpoint of a socio-economic effect, however, calls for a different concept and methodology than previously used cost-benefit approach. Achievements obtained from the activities conducted over the last 10 years implied that socio-economics in basic research funded by the public could contribute to the (1) increase in useful intellectual stocks, (2) upbringing of highly skilled college graduates, (3) construction of new scientific facilities and creation of methodologies, (4) stimulation and promotion of social interrelations by networking, (5) increase of one's ability to solve scientific problems, and (6) establishment of venture companies. In this study, we focused on item (4) for the analysis because it assumed that the external economic effect has a link with the socio-economic effects accompanying the networking formation. For the criteria of socio-economic effects we assume that the external effect becomes significant in proportion to the width of networking and/or the magnitude of cooperation measured by numbers of co-writing studies between JAERI and the research bodies, namely private and governmental sectors and universities. Taking these criteria into consideration, the subsequent four items are prepared for quantitative study. They are (1) to clarify the basic research fields where JAERI has been established a significant effort to

Scenarios for solar thermal energy applications in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, F.R.; Abreu, S.L.; Pereira, E.B.

2012-01-01

The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) database is used to prepare and discuss scenarios for solar thermal applications in Brazil. The paper discusses low temperature applications (small and large scale water heating) and solar power plants for electricity production (concentrated solar power plants and solar chimney plants) in Brazil. The results demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale application of solar energy for water heating and electricity generation in Brazil. Payback periods for water heating systems are typically below 4 years if they were used to replace residential electric showerheads in low-income families. Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility and many commercial companies are adopting this technology to reduce operational costs. The best sites to set up CSP plants are in the Brazilian semi-arid region where the annual energy achieves 2.2 MW h/m 2 and averages of daily solar irradiation are larger than 5.0 kW h/m 2 /day. The western area of Brazilian Northeastern region meets all technical requirements to exploit solar thermal energy for electricity generation based on solar chimney technology. Highlights: ► Scenarios for solar thermal applications are presented. ► Payback is typically below 4 years for small scale water heating systems. ► Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility. ► The Brazilian semi-arid region is the best sites for CSP and chimney tower plants.

Accounting For Patients' Socioeconomic Status Does Not Change Hospital Readmission Rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernheim, Susannah M; Parzynski, Craig S; Horwitz, Leora; Lin, Zhenqiu; Araas, Michael J; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Suter, Lisa G; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-08-01

There is an active public debate about whether patients' socioeconomic status should be included in the readmission measures used to determine penalties in Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Using the current Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services methodology, we compared risk-standardized readmission rates for hospitals caring for high and low proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status (as defined by their Medicaid status or neighborhood income). We then calculated risk-standardized readmission rates after additionally adjusting for patients' socioeconomic status. Our results demonstrate that hospitals caring for large proportions of patients of low socioeconomic status have readmission rates similar to those of other hospitals. Moreover, readmission rates calculated with and without adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status are highly correlated. Readmission rates of hospitals caring for patients of low socioeconomic status changed by approximately 0.1 percent with adjustment for patients' socioeconomic status, and only 3-4 percent fewer such hospitals reached the threshold for payment penalty in Medicare's HRRP. Overall, adjustment for socioeconomic status does not change hospital results in meaningful ways. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

[Intersection between gender and socioeconomic status in medical sciences career choice].

Science.gov (United States)

Gallardo-Hernández, Georgina; Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Compeán-Dardón, Sandra; Verde-Flota, Elizabeth; Delgado-Sáncnchez, Guadalupe; Tamez-González, Silivia

2006-01-01

Analyze the relationship between gender identity and socioeconomic level associated with career choice among undergraduate students selecting the area of health sciences. Our sample was comprised of first year medical nutrition, dentistry and nursing students (n=637) admitted to the Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Xochimilco. A self administered questionnaire was used. The dependent variable was career choice. Independent variables included socioeconomic status, gender norms in student's homes, and gender stereotype internalization. More female nursing students came from low socioeconomic strata, while medical students had a higher socioeconomic status. Among males, more nursing and medical students belonged to a higher socioeconomicstrata. Nutrition and dentistry students belonged to a medium strata. In comparison with males from high socioeconomic strata more male participants reported that household chores were divided among men and women. For women, as the socioeconomic level increased, the participation of men and women also increased. In the indicators of internalization of gender stereotypes, nursing students had the highest rates in the submission scale, but the lowest for masculinity and machismo. As the socioeconomic strata increased, the characteristics of masculinity and machismo also increased. The present results seem to indicate that among women of low socioeconomic strata more traditional gender stereotypes prevail which lead them to seek career choices considered femenine. Among men, there is a clear relationship between career choice, socioeconomic level and internalization of gender stereotypes.

Health status and air pollution related socioeconomic concerns in urban China.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Kaishan; Xu, Mengjia; Liu, Meng

2018-02-05

China is experiencing environmental issues and related health effects due to its industrialization and urbanization. The health effects associated with air pollution are not just a matter of epidemiology and environmental science research, but also an important social science issue. Literature about the relationship of socioeconomic factors with the environment and health factors is inadequate. The relationship between air pollution exposure and health effects in China was investigated with consideration of the socioeconomic factors. Based on nationwide survey data of China in 2014, we applied the multilevel mixed-effects model to evaluate how socioeconomic status (represented by education and income) contributed to the relationship between self-rated air pollution and self-rated health status at community level and individual level. The findings indicated that there was a non-linear relationship between the community socioeconomic status and community air pollution in urban China, with the highest level of air pollution presented in the communities with moderate socioeconomic status. In addition, health effects associated air pollution in different socioeconomic status groups were not equal. Self-rated air pollution had the greatest impact on self-rated health of the lower socioeconomic groups. With the increase of socioeconomic status, the effect of self-rated air pollution on self-rated health decreased. This study verified the different levels of exposure to air pollution and inequality in health effects among different socioeconomic groups in China. It is imperative for the government to urgently formulate public policies to enhance the ability of the lower socioeconomic groups to circumvent air pollution and reduce the health damage caused by air pollution.

Socio-economic status and overall and cause-specific mortality in Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sundquist Jan

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have reported discrepancies in cause-specific mortality among groups of individuals with different socio-economic status. However, most of the studies were limited by the specificity of the investigated populations and the broad definitions of the causes of death. The aim of the present population-based study was to explore the dependence of disease specific mortalities on the socio-economic status in Sweden, a country with universal health care. Another aim was to investigate possible gender differences. Methods Using the 2006 update of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, we identified over 2 million individuals with socio-economic data recorded in the 1960 national census. The association between mortality and socio-economic status was investigated by Cox's proportional hazards models taking into account the age, time period and residential area in both men and women, and additionally parity and age at first birth in women. Results We observed significant associations between socio-economic status and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, to cancer and to endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. The influence of socio-economic status on female breast cancer was markedly specific: women with a higher socio-economic status showed increased mortality due to breast cancer. Conclusion Even in Sweden, a country where health care is universally provided, higher socio-economic status is associated with decreased overall and cause-specific mortalities. Comparison of mortality among female and male socio-economic groups may provide valuable insights into the underlying causes of socio-economic inequalities in length of life.

Childhood and adulthood socio-economic position and midlife depressive and anxiety disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Stansfeld, Stephen A; Clark, Charlotte; Rodgers, Bryan; Caldwell, Tanya; Power, Chris

2008-02-01

This paper investigates how childhood socio-economic position influences the risk for midlife depressive and anxiety disorders at 45 years of age, assessed by the Clinical Interview Schedule in 9377 participants of the 1958 British Birth Cohort. Socio-economic position was measured by Registrar General Social Class in childhood and adulthood. The association of paternal manual socio-economic position with any diagnosis at 45 years of age was accounted for after adjustment for adult socio-economic position. Manual socio-economic position in women at 42 years of age was associated with midlife depressive disorder and any diagnosis; these associations were diminished by adjustment for childhood psychological disorders. Effects of childhood socio-economic position on adult depressive disorders may be mediated through adult socio-economic position.

Socio-economic impact of nuclear reactor decommissioning at Vandellos I NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liliana Yetta Pandi

2013-01-01

Currently nuclear reactors in Indonesia has been outstanding for more than 30 years, the possibility of nuclear reactors will be decommissioned. Closure of the operation or decommissioning of nuclear reactors will have socio-economic impacts. The socioeconomic impacts occur to workers, local communities and wider society. In this paper we report on socio-economic impacts of nuclear reactors decommissioning and lesson learned that can be drawn from the socio-economic impacts decommissioning Vandellos I nuclear power plant in Spain. Socio-economic impact due to decommissioning of nuclear reactor occurs at installation worker, local community and wider community. (author)

Socioeconomic Status and Bullying: A Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wolke, Dieter

2014-01-01

We examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) could be used to identify which schools or children are at greatest risk of bullying, which can adversely affect children’s health and life. We conducted a review of published literature on school bullying and SES. We identified 28 studies that reported an association between roles in school bullying (victim, bully, and bully-victim) and measures of SES. Random effects models showed SES was weakly related to bullying roles. Adjusting for publication bias, victims (odds ratio [OR] = 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24, 1.58) and bully-victims (OR = 1.54; 95% CI = 1.36, 1.74) were more likely to come from low socioeconomic households. Bullies (OR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97, 0.99) and victims (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.94, 0.97) were slightly less likely to come from high socioeconomic backgrounds. SES provides little guidance for targeted intervention, and all schools and children, not just those with more socioeconomic deprivation, should be targeted to reduce the adverse effects of bullying. PMID:24825231

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Economic study of socioeconomic characteristics and resource use ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study was carried out in 2008 in Dekina Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria. Primary data which were obtained from randomly selected maize farmers were used for the study. Both socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers and production activities were studied. The socioeconomic characteristics were ...

Prevalence and socioeconomic correlates of autism among children ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives: The objectives of the study were to determine the prevalence and socio-economic determinants of autism among children attending primary and secondary schools in South East, Nigeria. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study that assessed the prevalence and socio-economic pattern of childhood autism ...

Socio-economic Inequalities and Healthcare Utilization in Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bashiru I.I. Saeed

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A socio-economic inequality in the use of healthcare services in Ghana is investigated in this paper. The data employed in the study were drawn from Global Ageing and Adult Health survey conducted in Ghana by SAGE and was based on the design for the World Health Survey (WHS, 2003. The survey was conducted in 2007 and collected data on socio-economic characteristics and other variables of the individuals interviewed. Using generalized logit model, the study found that health status is a very strong determinant of the type of healthcare services Ghanaians look for. In Ghana, there are still important socio-economic gradients in the use of some healthcare services. These differences may be due to socio-economic inequities but could also indicate that the existing health facilities are not always used in an optimal way. Patient factors may be more important than supply factors in explaining the differential use of health services.

Socioeconomic position and participation in colorectal cancer screening

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, B L; Jørgensen, Torben; Brasso, K

2010-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with faecal occult blood test (FOBT) has the potential to reduce the incidence and mortality of CRC. Screening uptake is known to be inferior in people with low socioeconomic position (SEP) when compared with those with high position; however, the results of most...... information on education, employment, and income to encompass different but related aspects of socioeconomic stratification. Also, the impact of ethnicity and cohabiting status was analysed.......Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with faecal occult blood test (FOBT) has the potential to reduce the incidence and mortality of CRC. Screening uptake is known to be inferior in people with low socioeconomic position (SEP) when compared with those with high position; however, the results of most...... previous studies have limited value because they are based on recall or area-based measures of socioeconomic position, and might thus be subject to selective participation and misclassification. In this study we investigated differences in CRC screening participation using register-based individual...

[Socioeconomic inequalities and infant mortality in Bolivia].

Science.gov (United States)

Maydana, Edgar; Serral, Gemma; Borrell, Carme

2009-05-01

To evaluate socioeconomic inequalities and its relation to infant mortality in Bolivia's municipalities in 2001. An ecological study based on data from the 2001 National Census on Population and Housing (Censo Nacional de Población y Vivienda) covering the 327 municipalities in Bolivia's nine departments. The dependent variable was the infant mortality rate (IMR); the independent variables were indirect socioeconomic indicators (the percentage of illiterates older than 15 years of age, and the building materials and sanitation features of the houses). The geographic distribution of each indicator was determined and the associations between IMR and each socioeconomic indicator were calculate using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and adjusted with Poisson regression models. The resulting IMR for Bolivia in 2001 was 67 per 1000 live births. Rates ranged from <0.1 per 1000 live births in the Magdalena municipality, Beni department, to 170.0 per 1000 live births in the Caripuyo municipality, Potosí department. The mean rate of illiteracy per municipality was 17.5%; the mean percentage of houses without running water was 90.4%, and for those lacking sanitation services, 67.6%. The IMR was inversely associated with all of the socioeconomic indicators studied. The highest relative risk was found in housing without sanitation services. Multifactorial models adjusted for illiteracy showed that the following indicators were still strongly associated with the IMR: no sanitation services (Relative risk (RR)=1.54; 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI)=1.38-1.66); adobe, stone, or mud walls (RR=1.54; 95%CI: 1.43-1.67); and, corrugated metal, straw, or palm branch roof (RR=1.34; 95%CI: 1.26-1.43). A significant association was found between poor socioeconomic status and high IMR in Bolivia's municipalities in 2001. The municipalities in the country's central and southeastern areas had lower socioeconomic status and higher IMR. The lack of education, absence of basic sanitation

IPCC Socio-Economic Baseline Dataset

Data.gov (United States)