WorldWideScience

Sample records for societies agent-based simulation

  1. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. Jonker (Catholijn); J. Treur

    1998-01-01

    textabstract In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active, social and adaptive behaviour. The compositional development method for

  2. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course

  3. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course of this project two workshops were organized. At these workshops, a wide range of experts, both ABM experts and domain experts, worked on several potential applications of ABM. The results and ins...

  4. An Agent-Based Monetary Production Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2006-01-01

    An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable......An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable...

  5. Agent Programming Languages and Logics in Agent-Based Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, John

    2018-01-01

    and social behavior, and work on verification. Agent-based simulation is an approach for simulation that also uses the notion of agents. Although agent programming languages and logics are much less used in agent-based simulation, there are successful examples with agents designed according to the BDI...

  6. Agent-based simulation in entrepreneurship research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, S.-J.S.; Chandra, Y.

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) has wide applications in natural and social sciences yet it has not been widely applied in entrepreneurship research. We discuss the nature of ABM, its position among conventional methodologies and then offer a roadmap for developing, testing and extending theories of

  7. Use of agent based simulation for traffic safety assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of an agent based Computational Building Simulation (CBS) tool, termed KRONOS that is being used to work on advanced research questions such as traffic safety assessment and user behaviour in buildings...

  8. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J

    In the biological literature on animal behaviour, in addition to real experiments and field studies, also simulation experiments are a useful source of progress. Often specific mathematical modelling techniques are adopted and directly implemented in a programming language. Modelling more complex

  9. Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

  10. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  11. Solution of partial differential equations by agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, Miklos N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this short note is to demonstrate that partial differential equations can be quickly solved by agent-based simulation with high accuracy. There is no need for the solution of large systems of algebraic equations. This method is especially useful for quick determination of potential distributions and demonstration purposes in teaching electromagnetism. (letters and comments)

  12. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  13. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

    2007-01-01

    The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

  14. Large-scale agent-based social simulation : A study on epidemic prediction and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, M.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale agent-based social simulation is gradually proving to be a versatile methodological approach for studying human societies, which could make contributions from policy making in social science, to distributed artificial intelligence and agent technology in computer science, and to theory

  15. Simulating classroom lessons : an agent-based attempt

    OpenAIRE

    Ingram, Fred; Brooks, Roger John

    2018-01-01

    This is an interim report on a project to construct an agent-based simulation that reproduces some of the interactions between students and their teacher in classroom lessons. In a pilot study, the activities of 67 students and 7 teachers during 40 lessons were recorded using a data collection instrument that currently captures 17 student states and 15 teacher states. These data enabled various conceptual models to be explored, providing empirical values and distributions for the model parame...

  16. Invariance and universality in social agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio

    2002-01-01

    Agent-based simulation models have a promising future in the social sciences, from political science to anthropology, economics, and sociology. To realize their full scientific potential, however, these models must address a set of key problems, such as the number of interacting agents and their geometry, network topology, time calibration, phenomenological calibration, structural stability, power laws, and other substantive and methodological issues. This paper discusses and highlights these problems and outlines some solutions. PMID:12011412

  17. A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, M.

    2016-12-01

    The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

  18. Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Vaněk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent based simulation platform is introduced that focuses on legitimate and illegitimate aspects of maritime traffic, mainly on intercontinental transport through piracy afflicted areas. The extensible architecture presented here comprises several modules controlling the simulation and the life-cycle of the agents, analyzing the simulation output and visualizing the entire simulated domain. The simulation control module is initialized by various configuration scenarios to simulate various real-world situations, such as a pirate ambush, coordinated transit through a transport corridor, or coastal fishing and local traffic. The environmental model provides a rich set of inputs for agents that use the geo-spatial data and the vessel operational characteristics for their reasoning. The agent behavior model based on finite state machines together with planning algorithms allows complex expression of agent behavior, so the resulting simulation output can serve as a substitution for real world data from the maritime domain.

  19. Agent-based modeling and simulation Part 3 : desktop ABMS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2007-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS 'is a third way of doing science,' in addition to traditional deductive and inductive reasoning (Axelrod 1997b). Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based models across a variety of application domains. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market, supply chains, and consumer markets, to predicting the spread of epidemics, the threat of bio-warfare, and the factors responsible for the fall of ancient civilizations. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing agent models, and illustrates the development of a simple agent-based model of shopper behavior using spreadsheets.

  20. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  1. Formalizing Knowledge in Multi-Scale Agent-Based Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somogyi, Endre; Sluka, James P; Glazier, James A

    2016-10-01

    Multi-scale, agent-based simulations of cellular and tissue biology are increasingly common. These simulations combine and integrate a range of components from different domains. Simulations continuously create, destroy and reorganize constituent elements causing their interactions to dynamically change. For example, the multi-cellular tissue development process coordinates molecular, cellular and tissue scale objects with biochemical, biomechanical, spatial and behavioral processes to form a dynamic network. Different domain specific languages can describe these components in isolation, but cannot describe their interactions. No current programming language is designed to represent in human readable and reusable form the domain specific knowledge contained in these components and interactions. We present a new hybrid programming language paradigm that naturally expresses the complex multi-scale objects and dynamic interactions in a unified way and allows domain knowledge to be captured, searched, formalized, extracted and reused.

  2. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  3. Capacity Analysis for Parallel Runway through Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parallel runway is the mainstream structure of China hub airport, runway is often the bottleneck of an airport, and the evaluation of its capacity is of great importance to airport management. This study outlines a model, multiagent architecture, implementation approach, and software prototype of a simulation system for evaluating runway capacity. Agent Unified Modeling Language (AUML is applied to illustrate the inbound and departing procedure of planes and design the agent-based model. The model is evaluated experimentally, and the quality is studied in comparison with models, created by SIMMOD and Arena. The results seem to be highly efficient, so the method can be applied to parallel runway capacity evaluation and the model propose favorable flexibility and extensibility.

  4. A SIMULATION OF CONTRACT FARMING USING AGENT BASED MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanita Handayati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to simulate the effects of contract farming and farmer commitment to contract farming on supply chain performance by using agent based modeling as a methodology. Supply chain performance is represented by profits and service levels. The simulation results indicate that farmers should pay attention to customer requirements and plan their agricultural activities in order to fulfill these requirements. Contract farming helps farmers deal with demand and price uncertainties. We also find that farmer commitment is crucial to fulfilling contract requirements. This study contributes to this field from a conceptual as well as a practical point of view. From the conceptual point of view, our simulation results show that different levels of farmer commitment have an impact on farmer performance when implementing contract farming. From a practical point of view, the uncertainty faced by farmers and the market can be managed by implementing cultivation and harvesting scheduling, information sharing, and collective learning as ways of committing to contract farming.

  5. Agent-based simulation for human-induced hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleit, William M; Drewek, Matthew W

    2011-02-01

    Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human-induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent-based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human-induced hazards. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  7. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  8. Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Labiosa, William

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information

  9. Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent-Based Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroshl, William M; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas A

    2015-09-01

    This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent-based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg "leader follower" game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent-based simulation. The evolutionary agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent-based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent-based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA-based approach. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Using an Agent-Based Modeling Simulation and Game to Teach Socio-Scientific Topics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori L. Scarlatos

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In our modern world, where science, technology and society are tightly interwoven, it is essential that all students be able to evaluate scientific evidence and make informed decisions. Energy Choices, an agent-based simulation with a multiplayer game interface, was developed as a learning tool that models the interdependencies between the energy choices that are made, growth in local economies, and climate change on a global scale. This paper presents the results of pilot testing Energy Choices in two different settings, using two different modes of delivery.

  11. A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

  12. Agent-Based Simulation and Assessment of NAS Security and Safety, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The key innovation proposed here is the use of agent-based modeling and simulation to evaluate the safety of the National Airspace under crisis operations and...

  13. An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Organizational Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ruan, Sui; Gokhale, Swapna S; Pattipati, Krishna R

    2006-01-01

    In many fields, including engineering, management, and organizational science, simulation-based computational organization theory has been used to gain insight into the degree of match ("congruence...

  14. Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

  15. Plan Validation Using DES and Agent-based Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wong, Teck H; Ong, Kim S

    2008-01-01

    .... This thesis explores the possibility of using a multi-agent system (MAS) to generate the aggressor's air strike plans, which could be coupled with a low resolution Discrete Event Simulation (DES...

  16. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-01-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent...

  17. Data-driven Travel Demand Modelling and Agent-based Traffic Simulation in Amsterdam Urban Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnikov, V.R.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Lees, M.H.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this project is the development of a large-scale agent-based traffic simulation system for Amsterdam urban area, validated on sensor data and adjusted for decision support in critical situations and for policy making in sustainable city development, emission control and electric car

  18. Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

  19. Agent-based Simulation of Reactive, Pro-active, and Social Animal Behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Mira, J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active and social behaviour. The compositional development method for multi-agent systems DESIRE and

  20. Pricing and Timing Strategies for New Product Using Agent-Based Simulation of Behavioural Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Keeheon Lee; Hoyeop Lee; Chang Ouk Kim

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we are interested in the problem of determining the pricing and timing strategies of a new product by developing an agent-based product diffusion simulation. In the proposed simulation model, agents imitate behavioural consumers, who are reference dependent and risk averse in the evaluation of new products and whose interactions create word-of-mouth regarding new products. Pricing and timing strategies involve the timing of a new product release, the timing of providing a disco...

  1. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Sánchez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  2. A Novel Approach to Selecting Contractor in Agent-based Multi-sensor Battlefield Reconnaissance Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiong Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel approach towards showing how contractor in agent-based simulation for complex warfare system such as multi-sensor battlefield reconnaissance system can be selected in Contract Net Protocol (CNP with high efficiency. We first analyze agent and agent-based simulation framework, CNP and collaborators, and present agents interaction chain used to actualize CNP and establish agents trust network. We then obtain contractor's importance weight and dynamic trust by presenting fuzzy similarity-based algorithm and trust modifying algorithm, thus we propose contractor selecting approach based on maximum dynamic integrative trust. We validate the feasibility and capability of this approach by implementing simulation, analyzing compared results and checking the model.

  3. iCrowd: agent-based behavior modeling and crowd simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    Initially designed in the context of the TASS (Total Airport Security System) FP-7 project, the Crowd Simulation platform developed by the Integrated Systems Lab of the Institute of Informatics and Telecommunications at N.C.S.R. Demokritos, has evolved into a complete domain-independent agent-based behavior simulator with an emphasis on crowd behavior and building evacuation simulation. Under continuous development, it reflects an effort to implement a modern, multithreaded, data-oriented simulation engine employing latest state-of-the-art programming technologies and paradigms. It is based on an extensible architecture that separates core services from the individual layers of agent behavior, offering a concrete simulation kernel designed for high-performance and stability. Its primary goal is to deliver an abstract platform to facilitate implementation of several Agent-Based Simulation solutions with applicability in several domains of knowledge, such as: (i) Crowd behavior simulation during [in/out] door evacuation. (ii) Non-Player Character AI for Game-oriented applications and Gamification activities. (iii) Vessel traffic modeling and simulation for Maritime Security and Surveillance applications. (iv) Urban and Highway Traffic and Transportation Simulations. (v) Social Behavior Simulation and Modeling.

  4. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  5. Simulating Transport and Land Use Interdependencies for Strategic Urban Planning—An Agent Based Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Huynh

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Agent based modelling has been widely accepted as a promising tool for urban planning purposes thanks to its capability to provide sophisticated insights into the social behaviours and the interdependencies that characterise urban systems. In this paper, we report on an agent based model, called TransMob, which explicitly simulates the mutual dynamics between demographic evolution, transport demands, housing needs and the eventual change in the average satisfaction of the residents of an urban area. The ability to reproduce such dynamics is a unique feature that has not been found in many of the like agent based models in the literature. TransMob, is constituted by six major modules: synthetic population, perceived liveability, travel diary assignment, traffic micro-simulator, residential location choice, and travel mode choice. TransMob is used to simulate the dynamics of a metropolitan area in South East of Sydney, Australia, in 2006 and 2011, with demographic evolution. The results are favourably compared against survey data for the area in 2011, therefore validating the capability of TransMob to reproduce the observed complexity of an urban area. We also report on the application of TransMob to simulate various hypothetical scenarios of urban planning policies. We conclude with discussions on current limitations of TransMob, which serve as suggestions for future developments.

  6. MULTI AGENT-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL LANDSCAPE (MABEL) - AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SIMULATION MODEL: SOME EARLY ASSESSMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.

    2002-01-01

    The Multi Agent-Based Environmental Landscape model (MABEL) introduces a Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI) systemic methodology, to simulate land use and transformation changes over time and space. Computational agents represent abstract relations among geographic, environmental, human and socio-economic variables, with respect to land transformation pattern changes. A multi-agent environment is developed providing task-nonspecific problem-solving abilities, flexibility on achieving g...

  7. Agent-based modeling and simulation of clean heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya

    2011-03-15

    A sound climate policy encouraging clean energy investment is important to mitigate global warming. Previous research has demonstrated that consumer choice indeed plays an important role in adoption of sustainable technologies. This thesis strives to gain a better understanding of consumers' decision-making on heating systems and to explore the potential application of agent-based modeling (ABM) in exploring mechanism underlying adoption in which heating system adoption by Norwegian households is taken up as a case study. An interdisciplinary approach, applying various established theories including those of psychology, is applied to create a model for consumer behavior and implement this behavior in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate heating technology diffusion. A mail-survey, carried out in autumn 2008, is a means to collect information for parameterizing the agent-based model, for gaining empirical facts, and for validating the developed model at micro-level. Survey sample consisted of 1500 Norwegian households drawn from population register and 1500 wood pellet users in Norway. The response rates were 10.3% and 34.6% for population sample and wood pellet sample respectively. This study is divided into two parts; empirical analysis and agent-based simulation. The empirical analysis aims at fully understanding the important aspects of adoption decision and their implications, in order to assist simulation. The analysis particularly contributes to the identification of differences/similarities between adopters and non adopters of wood pellet heating with respects to some key points of adoption derived from different theories, psychological factors underlying the adoption-decision of wood pellet heating, and the rationales underlying Norwegian households' decisions regarding their future heating system. The simulation study aims at exploring the mechanism of heterogeneous household decision-making giving rise to the diffusion of heating systems, and

  8. An Agent-Based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provance, Mike; Collins, Andrew; Carayannis, Elias

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing debate over the means by which regions can foster the growth of entrepreneurial activity in order to stimulate recovery and growth of their economies. On one side, agglomeration theory suggests the regions grow because of strong clusters that foster knowledge spillover locally; on the other side, the entrepreneurial action camp argues that innovative business models are generated by entrepreneurs with unique market perspectives who draw on knowledge from more distant domains. We will show you the design for a novel agent-based model of new venture creation that will demonstrate the relationship between agglomeration and action. The primary focus of this model is information exchange as the medium for these agent interactions. Our modeling and simulation study proposes to reveal interesting relationships in these perspectives, offer a foundation on which these disparate theories from economics and sociology can find common ground, and expand the use of agent-based modeling into entrepreneurship research.

  9. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  10. Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

  11. Agent-Based Simulation of Mass Shootings: Determining How to Limit the Scale of a Tragedy

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Hayes; Reginald Hayes

    2014-01-01

    An agent-based simulation was created to examine key parameters in mass shootings. The goal of the simulation was to examine the potential effectiveness of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) assault weapons and high-capacity magazines bill. Based on the analysis, the proposed law would have a negligible effect on the number of people shot during mass shootings. The assault weapons portion of the proposed bill will have no effect on the number of people killed or wounded in a mass shootin...

  12. The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  13. The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  14. Agent-Based Smart Grid Market Simulation with Connection to Real Infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Gomes, Luis

    2015-01-01

    The consensus behind Smart Grids (SG) as one of the most promising solutions for the massive integration of renewable energy sources in power systems has led to the practical implementation of several prototypes and pilots that aim at testing and validating SG methodologies. The urgent need...... to accommodate such resources of distributed and intermittent nature and the impact that a deficient management of energy sources has on the global population require that alternative solutions are experimented. This paper presents a multi-agent based SG simulation platform that is connected to physical...

  15. ModelforAnalyzing Human Communication Network Based onAgent-Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuyama, Shinako; Terano, Takao

    This paper discusses dynamic properties of human communications networks, which appears as a result of informationexchanges among people. We propose agent-based simulation (ABS) to examine implicit mechanisms behind the dynamics. The ABS enables us to reveal the characteristics and the differences of the networks regarding the specific communicationgroups. We perform experiments on the ABS with activity data from questionnaires survey and with virtual data which isdifferent from the activity data. We compare the difference between them and show the effectiveness of the ABS through theexperiments.

  16. Towards a standard model for research in agent-based modeling and simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Fachada

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Agent-based modeling (ABM is a bottom-up modeling approach, where each entity of the system being modeled is uniquely represented as an independent decision-making agent. ABMs are very sensitive to implementation details. Thus, it is very easy to inadvertently introduce changes which modify model dynamics. Such problems usually arise due to the lack of transparency in model descriptions, which constrains how models are assessed, implemented and replicated. In this paper, we present PPHPC, a model which aims to serve as a standard in agent based modeling research, namely, but not limited to, conceptual model specification, statistical analysis of simulation output, model comparison and parallelization studies. This paper focuses on the first two aspects (conceptual model specification and statistical analysis of simulation output, also providing a canonical implementation of PPHPC. The paper serves as a complete reference to the presented model, and can be used as a tutorial for simulation practitioners who wish to improve the way they communicate their ABMs.

  17. Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walpole, J; Chappell, J C; Cluceru, J G; Mac Gabhann, F; Bautch, V L; Peirce, S M

    2015-09-01

    Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods.

  18. An Agent-Based Labor Market Simulation with Endogenous Skill-Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemkow, S.

    This paper considers an agent-based labor market simulation to examine the influence of skills on wages and unemployment rates. Therefore less and highly skilled workers as well as less and highly productive vacancies are implemented. The skill distribution is exogenous whereas the distribution of the less and highly productive vacancies is endogenous. The different opportunities of the skill groups on the labor market are established by skill requirements. This means that a highly productive vacancy can only be filled by a highly skilled unemployed. Different skill distributions, which can also be interpreted as skill-biased technological change, are simulated by incrementing the skill level of highly skilled persons exogenously. This simulation also provides a microeconomic foundation of the matching function often used in theoretical approaches.

  19. Agent-Based Modeling of Taxi Behavior Simulation with Probe Vehicle Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurav Ranjit

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Taxi behavior is a spatial–temporal dynamic process involving discrete time dependent events, such as customer pick-up, customer drop-off, cruising, and parking. Simulation models, which are a simplification of a real-world system, can help understand the effects of change of such dynamic behavior. In this paper, agent-based modeling and simulation is proposed, that describes the dynamic action of an agent, i.e., taxi, governed by behavior rules and properties, which emulate the taxi behavior. Taxi behavior simulations are fundamentally done for optimizing the service level for both taxi drivers as well as passengers. Moreover, simulation techniques, as such, could be applied to another field of application as well, where obtaining real raw data are somewhat difficult due to privacy issues, such as human mobility data or call detail record data. This paper describes the development of an agent-based simulation model which is based on multiple input parameters (taxi stay point cluster; trip information (origin and destination; taxi demand information; free taxi movement; and network travel time that were derived from taxi probe GPS data. As such, agent’s parameters were mapped into grid network, and the road network, for which the grid network was used as a base for query/search/retrieval of taxi agent’s parameters, while the actual movement of taxi agents was on the road network with routing and interpolation. The results obtained from the simulated taxi agent data and real taxi data showed a significant level of similarity of different taxi behavior, such as trip generation; trip time; trip distance as well as trip occupancy, based on its distribution. As for efficient data handling, a distributed computing platform for large-scale data was used for extracting taxi agent parameter from the probe data by utilizing both spatial and non-spatial indexing technique.

  20. An agent-based method for simulating porous fluid-saturated structures with indistinguishable components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Jamal; Pettet, Graeme John; Gu, YuanTong; Zhang, Lihai; Oloyede, Adekunle

    2017-10-01

    Single-phase porous materials contain multiple components that intermingle up to the ultramicroscopic level. Although the structures of the porous materials have been simulated with agent-based methods, the results of the available methods continue to provide patterns of distinguishable solid and fluid agents which do not represent materials with indistinguishable phases. This paper introduces a new agent (hybrid agent) and category of rules (intra-agent rule) that can be used to create emergent structures that would more accurately represent single-phase structures and materials. The novel hybrid agent carries the characteristics of system's elements and it is capable of changing within itself, while also responding to its neighbours as they also change. As an example, the hybrid agent under one-dimensional cellular automata formalism in a two-dimensional domain is used to generate patterns that demonstrate the striking morphological and characteristic similarities with the porous saturated single-phase structures where each agent of the ;structure; carries semi-permeability property and consists of both fluid and solid in space and at all times. We conclude that the ability of the hybrid agent to change locally provides an enhanced protocol to simulate complex porous structures such as biological tissues which could facilitate models for agent-based techniques and numerical methods.

  1. Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grébaut Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control the disease. Using the Cormas® system, we developed HATSim, an agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the evolution of the disease within this area over a 5-year span. In this article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD protocol that is classically used to describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon, in order to illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control Program (CNCP. Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the elimination of the disease in foci.

  2. SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana MARICA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

  3. High performance cellular level agent-based simulation with FLAME for the GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Paul; Walker, Dawn; Coakley, Simon; Romano, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Driven by the availability of experimental data and ability to simulate a biological scale which is of immediate interest, the cellular scale is fast emerging as an ideal candidate for middle-out modelling. As with 'bottom-up' simulation approaches, cellular level simulations demand a high degree of computational power, which in large-scale simulations can only be achieved through parallel computing. The flexible large-scale agent modelling environment (FLAME) is a template driven framework for agent-based modelling (ABM) on parallel architectures ideally suited to the simulation of cellular systems. It is available for both high performance computing clusters (www.flame.ac.uk) and GPU hardware (www.flamegpu.com) and uses a formal specification technique that acts as a universal modelling format. This not only creates an abstraction from the underlying hardware architectures, but avoids the steep learning curve associated with programming them. In benchmarking tests and simulations of advanced cellular systems, FLAME GPU has reported massive improvement in performance over more traditional ABM frameworks. This allows the time spent in the development and testing stages of modelling to be drastically reduced and creates the possibility of real-time visualisation for simple visual face-validation.

  4. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation Considering Emotion Contagion for Emergency Evacuation Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faroqi, H.; Mesgari, M.-S.

    2015-12-01

    During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  5. AGENT-BASED CROWD SIMULATION CONSIDERING EMOTION CONTAGION FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATION PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Faroqi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  6. Solving the dial-a-ride problem using agent-based simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campbell, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The ‘dial-a-ride problem’ (DARP requires a set of customers to be transported by a limited fleet of vehicles between unique origins and destinations under several service constraints, including within defined time windows. The problem is considered NP-hard, and has typically been solved using metaheuristic methods. An agent-based simulation (ABS model was developed, where each vehicle bids to service customers based on a weighted objective function that considers the cost to service the customer and the time quality of the service that would be achieved. The approach applied a pre- processing technique to reduce the search space, given the service time window constraints. Tests of the model showed significantly better customer transit and waiting times than the benchmark datasets. The ABS was able to obtain solutions for much larger problem sizes than the benchmark solutions, with this work being the first known application of ABS to the DARP.

  7. Application of Transaction Costs in Analyzing Transport Corridors Using Multi-Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence E. Henesey

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In analyzing the freight transportation systems, such as thetransport of intermodal containers, often direct monetary costsassociated with transportation are used to evaluate or determinethe choice of transport corridor. In forming decisions ontransport co"idor choice, this paper proposes that transactioncosts can be considered as an additional determinant in conductingtransport corridor analysis. The application of transactioncosts theory in analyzing the organizations and the transactionsthat occur, assists in indicating as to which governancestructure results in higher efficiencies. Efficiency is seen as eitherthe minimisation on costs or the maximisation of customerservice levels. The use of multi-agent based simulation for modellingthe organisational structure and mechanisms provides anovel approach in understanding the relationships in a regionaltransport co"idor.

  8. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  9. Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Martens, Thomas

    2008-09-01

    Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

  10. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  11. An agent-based simulation model to study accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pai; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-03-01

    Creating accountable care organizations (ACOs) has been widely discussed as a strategy to control rapidly rising healthcare costs and improve quality of care; however, building an effective ACO is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders (payers, providers, patients) with their own interests. Also, implementation of an ACO is costly in terms of time and money. Immature design could cause safety hazards. Therefore, there is a need for analytical model-based decision-support tools that can predict the outcomes of different strategies to facilitate ACO design and implementation. In this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to study ACOs that considers payers, healthcare providers, and patients as agents under the shared saving payment model of care for congestive heart failure (CHF), one of the most expensive causes of sometimes preventable hospitalizations. The agent-based simulation model has identified the critical determinants for the payment model design that can motivate provider behavior changes to achieve maximum financial and quality outcomes of an ACO. The results show nonlinear provider behavior change patterns corresponding to changes in payment model designs. The outcomes vary by providers with different quality or financial priorities, and are most sensitive to the cost-effectiveness of CHF interventions that an ACO implements. This study demonstrates an increasingly important method to construct a healthcare system analytics model that can help inform health policy and healthcare management decisions. The study also points out that the likely success of an ACO is interdependent with payment model design, provider characteristics, and cost and effectiveness of healthcare interventions.

  12. Design of a Mobile Agent-Based Adaptive Communication Middleware for Federations of Critical Infrastructure Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Görbil, Gökçe; Gelenbe, Erol

    The simulation of critical infrastructures (CI) can involve the use of diverse domain specific simulators that run on geographically distant sites. These diverse simulators must then be coordinated to run concurrently in order to evaluate the performance of critical infrastructures which influence each other, especially in emergency or resource-critical situations. We therefore describe the design of an adaptive communication middleware that provides reliable and real-time one-to-one and group communications for federations of CI simulators over a wide-area network (WAN). The proposed middleware is composed of mobile agent-based peer-to-peer (P2P) overlays, called virtual networks (VNets), to enable resilient, adaptive and real-time communications over unreliable and dynamic physical networks (PNets). The autonomous software agents comprising the communication middleware monitor their performance and the underlying PNet, and dynamically adapt the P2P overlay and migrate over the PNet in order to optimize communications according to the requirements of the federation and the current conditions of the PNet. Reliable communications is provided via redundancy within the communication middleware and intelligent migration of agents over the PNet. The proposed middleware integrates security methods in order to protect the communication infrastructure against attacks and provide privacy and anonymity to the participants of the federation. Experiments with an initial version of the communication middleware over a real-life networking testbed show that promising improvements can be obtained for unicast and group communications via the agent migration capability of our middleware.

  13. Investigating the role of water in the Diffusion of Cholera using Agent-Based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Augustijn, Denie

    2014-05-01

    Traditionally, cholera was considered to be a waterborne disease. Currently we know that many other factors can contribute to the spread of this disease including human mobility and human behavior. However, the hydrological component in cholera diffusion is significant. The interplay between cholera and water includes bacteria (V. cholera) that survive in the aquatic environment, the possibility that run-off water from dumpsites carries the bacteria to surface water (rivers and lakes), and when the bacteria reach streams they can be carried downstream to infect new locations. Modelling is a very important tool to build theory on the interplay between different types of transmission mechanisms that together are responsible for the spread of Cholera. Agent-based simulation models are very suitable to incorporate behavior at individual level and to reproduce emergence. However, it is more difficult to incorporate the hydrological components in this type of model. In this research we present the hydrological component of an Agent-Based Cholera model developed to study a Cholera epidemic in Kumasi (Ghana) in 2005. The model was calibrated on the relative contribution of each community to the distributed pattern of cholera rather than the absolute number of incidences. Analysis of the results shows that water plays an important role in the diffusion of cholera: 75% of the cholera cases were infected via river water that was contaminated by runoff from the dumpsites. To initiate infections upstream, the probability of environment-to-human transmission seemed to be overestimated compared to what may be expected from literature. Scenario analyses show that there is a strong relation between the epidemic curve and the rainfall. Removing dumpsites that are situated close to the river resulted in a strong decrease in the number of cholera cases. Results are sensitive to the scheduling of the daily activities and the survival time of the cholera bacteria.

  14. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  15. Efficient graph-based dynamic load-balancing for parallel large-scale agent-based traffic simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Y.; Cai, W.; Aydt, H.; Lees, M.; Tolk, A.; Diallo, S.Y.; Ryzhov, I.O.; Yilmaz, L.; Buckley, S.; Miller, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    One of the issues of parallelizing large-scale agent-based traffic simulations is partitioning and load-balancing. Traffic simulations are dynamic applications where the distribution of workload in the spatial domain constantly changes. Dynamic load-balancing at run-time has shown better efficiency

  16. Perception Modelling of Visitors in Vargas Museum Using Agent-Based Simulation and Visibility Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcellar, B. G., III

    2017-10-01

    Museum exhibit management is one of the usual undertakings of museum facilitators. Art works must be strategically placed to achieve maximum viewing from the visitors. The positioning of the artworks also highly influences the quality of experience of the visitors. One solution in such problems is to utilize GIS and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). In ABM, persistent interacting objects are modelled as agents. These agents are given attributes and behaviors that describe their properties as well as their motion. In this study, ABM approach that incorporates GIS is utilized to perform analyticcal assessment on the placement of the artworks in the Vargas Museum. GIS serves as the backbone for the spatial aspect of the simulation such as the placement of the artwork exhibits, as well as possible obstructions to perception such as the columns, walls, and panel boards. Visibility Analysis is also done to the model in GIS to assess the overall visibility of the artworks. The ABM is done using the initial GIS outputs and GAMA, an open source ABM software. Visitors are modelled as agents, moving inside the museum following a specific decision tree. The simulation is done in three use cases: the 10 %, 20 %, and 30 % chance of having a visitor in the next minute. For the case of the said museum, the 10 % chance is determined to be the closest simulation case to the actual and the recommended minimum time to achieve a maximum artwork perception is 1 hour and 40 minutes. Initial assessment of the results shows that even after 3 hours of simulation, small parts of the exhibit show lack of viewers, due to its distance from the entrance. A more detailed decision tree for the visitor agents can be incorporated to have a more realistic simulation.

  17. Analysis of Customer Behaviour and Online Retailers Strategies Using the Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sava Čavoški

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of ABMS – agent-based modelling and simulation in the analysis of customer behaviour on B2C e-commerce websites as well as in the analysis of various business decisions upon the effects of on-line sales. By linking the areas of modelling based on agents and electronic commerce, this paper addresses the new opportunities for a quality assessment of consumer behaviour and reasons explaining this behaviour in e-commerce. The interactions of agents that make up this model are sublimated in the utility function that provides the basis for decision-making in the model. The rules of behaviour and interactions, included in the model through the utility function, denote the complexity of the decision-making process which occurs in evaluation and purchase of products in the part of B2C e-commerce. The simulation model implemented in the software NetLogo enables the monitoring of all interactions between the consumers (ConsumerAgents, seller-Internet sites (SellerAgents and advertisement agents (BannerAgents by generating the indicators of B2C site business performance.

  18. Impact of Carbon Quota Allocation Mechanism on Emissions Trading: An Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Jiang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes an agent-based simulation system of the carbon emissions trading in accordance with the complex feature of the trading process. This system analyzes the impact of the carbon quota allocation mechanism on emissions trading for three different aspects including the amount of emissions reduction, the economic effect on the emitters, and the emissions reduction cost. Based on the data of the carbon emissions of different industries in China, several simulations were made. The results indicate that the emissions trading policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions in a perfectly competitive market. Moreover, by comparing separate quota allocation mechanisms, we obtain the result that the scheme with a small extent quota decrease in a comprehensive allocation mechanism can minimize the unit carbon emission cost. Implementing this scheme can also achieve minimal effects of carbon emissions limitation on the economy on the basis that the environment is not destroyed. However, excessive quota decrease cannot promote the emitters to reduce emission. Taking into account that several developing countries have the dual task of limiting carbon emissions and developing the economy, it is necessary to adopt a comprehensive allocation mechanism of the carbon quota and increase the initial proportion of free allocation.

  19. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Emlyn Yang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.

  20. Simulation of Distance Relay for Load Encroachment Alleviation with Agent Based Supervision of Zone3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Badr

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cascaded tripping of power lines due to mal-operation of zone-3 distance relays has been one of the main causes of many previous blackouts worldwide. Encroachment of load into zone-3 characteristics during stressed system operation conditions is a basic factor for such mal-operation of the relays. By improving the operation of zone-3, it is possible to prevent mal-operations so that cascaded line tripping can be avoided. For proper study of the behavior of distance relay during faults and load encroachment phenomenon, we must build a model of distance relay, so in this paper a modeling study of distance relay is implemented using MATLAB/Simulink program. However, this model is distinguished from previous models that, examines in detail the third zone of distance relay. Many cases are simulated with changing line loading and fault location to ensure the capability of the relay to detect the fault and thus the maximum load ability limit of distance relay is obtained. In order to prevent cascading events caused by hidden failures in zone-3 relays, agent based relay architectures have been suggested in the recent past. In such architectures each zone-3 relay contains agents that require communication with other agents at various relevant relays in order to distinguish a real zone-3 event from a temporary overload. In this paper, a local master agent is consulted by all zone-3 agents before a tripping decision is made. The master agent maintains a rule base which is updated based on the local topology of the network and real time monitoring of the status of other relays and circuit breakers. Cisco Packet Tracer program is used for running communication network simulations. The result of the simulation indicate that the time estimated to send and receive a packet data unit (PDU message between one relay to anther can satisfy the communication requirement for the proposed scheme with fiber media.

  1. Agent-Based Simulation of Children’s School Travel Mode with Parental Escort Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jing

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, the number of private cars has expanding quickly in China, more and more parents use cars to escort their children to school, thus cause serious traffic congestions near school in many cities. In this paper, we developed an agent-based model (ABM of the parents’ choice of escort mode. The core of this model is an escort mode choice motivation adjustment function that combines distance, traffic safety and social influence. We also used ABM to exhibit the emergent decoy effect phenomenon, which is a dynamic phenomenon that the introduction of a decoy to the choice-set could increase the share of other alternatives. The model reveals the parents’ inner psychological mechanism when facing competing escort mode choice in transportation system. The simulation results show that the proportion of parents to choose bus escort was 62.45% without the decoy effect was introduced, while the proportion of parents to choose bus escort increased to 74.29% with the decoy effect was entry. The use of the ABM method gives the potential to cope with the dynamic changes in studying parent escort mode choice behavior.

  2. Agent-based simulation in management and organizational studies: a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Alfonso Gómez-Cruz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the literature about the use of agent-based simulation (ABS in the study of organizational behavior, decision making, and problem-solving. It aims at contributing to the consolidation of ABS as a field of applied research in management and organizational studies. Design/methodology/approach - The authors carried out a non-systematic search in literature published between 2000 and 2016, by using the keyword “agent-based” to search through Scopus’ business, management and accounting database. Additional search criteria were devised using the papers’ keywords and the categories defined by the divisions and interest groups of the Academy of Management. The authors found 181 articles for this survey. Findings - The survey shows that ABS provides a robust and rigorous framework to elaborate descriptions, explanations, predictions and theories about organizations and their processes as well as develop tools that support strategic and operational decision making and problem-solving. The authors show that the areas that report the highest number of applications are operations and logistics (37 percent, marketing (17 percent and organizational behavior (14 percent. Originality/value - The paper illustrates the increasingly prominent role of ABS in fields such as organizational behavior, strategy, human resources, marketing and logistics. To-date, this is the most complete survey about ABS in all management areas.

  3. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

    2016-12-21

    With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C), Deployment (D), Resource (R) and IOData (IO). Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  4. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C, Deployment (D, Resource (R and IOData (IO. Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  5. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

    2016-01-01

    With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C), Deployment (D), Resource (R) and IOData (IO). Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design. PMID:28009818

  6. Comparing methods of targeting obesity interventions in populations: An agent-based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Glass, Thomas A

    2017-12-01

    Social networks as well as neighborhood environments have been shown to effect obesity-related behaviors including energy intake and physical activity. Accordingly, harnessing social networks to improve targeting of obesity interventions may be promising to the extent this leads to social multiplier effects and wider diffusion of intervention impact on populations. However, the literature evaluating network-based interventions has been inconsistent. Computational methods like agent-based models (ABM) provide researchers with tools to experiment in a simulated environment. We develop an ABM to compare conventional targeting methods (random selection, based on individual obesity risk, and vulnerable areas) with network-based targeting methods. We adapt a previously published and validated model of network diffusion of obesity-related behavior. We then build social networks among agents using a more realistic approach. We calibrate our model first against national-level data. Our results show that network-based targeting may lead to greater population impact. We also present a new targeting method that outperforms other methods in terms of intervention effectiveness at the population level.

  7. Agent-Based Simulation to Support the Effectiveness, Procurement, and Employment of Non-Lethal Weapon Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xv LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ABS Agent-Based Simulation AQ Al Qaeda CMC Commandant of the Marine Corps DES Discrete -Event...instilling in me the work ethic to accomplish anything I put my mind to. Jake and Jordan, thank you for listening to me complain about math and...used within the DOD, with two of the most common being discrete -event simulation (DES) and ABS. The DOD uses simulation models in support of

  8. Assessing Consequential Scenarios in a Complex Operational Environment Using Agent Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-16

    capabilities and maturities of 4 subelements: cognition, judgment, emotion , and critical thinking. Each model represents these subelements differently...CADSIM) 102 5.2 Evaluating Agent-Based Technologies: Maturity Level and the Human Domain 103 5.2.1 Evaluation of Maturity Level 103 5.2.2 Human...describes the maturity of agent-based models, ranging from realistic caricatures to quantitatively characterized phenomena at the microlevel. This

  9. An agent-based simulation model for Clostridium difficile infection control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codella, James; Safdar, Nasia; Heffernan, Rick; Alagoz, Oguzhan

    2015-02-01

    Control of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is an increasingly difficult problem for health care institutions. There are commonly recommended strategies to combat CDI transmission, such as oral vancomycin for CDI treatment, increased hand hygiene with soap and water for health care workers, daily environmental disinfection of infected patient rooms, and contact isolation of diseased patients. However, the efficacy of these strategies, particularly for endemic CDI, has not been well studied. The objective of this research is to develop a valid, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to study C. difficile transmission and control in a midsized hospital. We develop an ABM of a midsized hospital with agents such as patients, health care workers, and visitors. We model the natural progression of CDI in a patient using a Markov chain and the transmission of CDI through agent and environmental interactions. We derive input parameters from aggregate patient data from the 2007-2010 Wisconsin Hospital Association and published medical literature. We define a calibration process, which we use to estimate transition probabilities of the Markov model by comparing simulation results to benchmark values found in published literature. In a comparison of CDI control strategies implemented individually, routine bleach disinfection of CDI-positive patient rooms provides the largest reduction in nosocomial asymptomatic colonization (21.8%) and nosocomial CDIs (42.8%). Additionally, vancomycin treatment provides the largest reduction in relapse CDIs (41.9%), CDI-related mortalities (68.5%), and total patient length of stay (21.6%). We develop a generalized ABM for CDI control that can be customized and further expanded to specific institutions and/or scenarios. Additionally, we estimate transition probabilities for a Markov model of natural CDI progression in a patient through calibration. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Agent Based Modeling and Simulation of Pedestrian Crowds In Panic Situations

    KAUST Repository

    Alrashed, Mohammed

    2016-11-01

    The increasing occurrence of panic stampedes during mass events has motivated studying the impact of panic on crowd dynamics and the simulation of pedestrian flows in panic situations. The lack of understanding of panic stampedes still causes hundreds of fatalities each year, not to mention the scarce methodical studies of panic behavior capable of envisaging such crowd dynamics. Under those circumstances, there are thousands of fatalities and twice that many of injuries every year caused be crowd stampede worldwide, despite the tremendous efforts of crowd control and massive numbers of safekeeping forces. Pedestrian crowd dynamics are generally predictable in high-density crowds where pedestrians cannot move freely and thus gives rise to self-propelling interactions between pedestrians. Although every pedestrian has personal preferences, the motion dynamics can be modeled as a social force in such crowds. These forces are representations of internal preferences and objectives to perform certain actions or movements. The corresponding forces can be controlled for each individual to represent a different variety of behaviors that can be associated with panic situations such as escaping danger, clustering, and pushing. In this thesis, we use an agent-based model of pedestrian behavior in panic situations to predict the collective human behavior in such crowd dynamics. The proposed simulations suggests a practical way to alleviate fatalities and minimize the evacuation time in panic situations. Moreover, we introduce contagious panic and pushing behavior, resulting in a more realistic crowd dynamics model. The proposed methodology describes the intensity and spread of panic for each individual as a function of distances between pedestrians.

  11. Simulating the influence of life trajectory events on transport mode behavior in an agent-based system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, M.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    2007-01-01

    this paper describes the results of a study on the impact of lifecycle or life trajectory events on activity-travel decisions. This lifecycle trajectory of individual agents can be easily incorporated in an agent-based simulation system. This paper focuses on two lifecycle events, change in

  12. Technological progress and effects of (supra) regional innovation and production collaboration. An agent-based model simulation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, B.; Pyka, A.; Serguieva, A.; Maringer, D.; Palade, V.; Almeida, R.J.

    2014-01-01

    We provide a novel technology development model in which economic agents search for transformations to build artifacts. Using this technology development model, we conduct an agent-based model simulation study on the effect of (supra-)regional collaboration in production and innovation on

  13. Combining integrated river modelling and agent based social simulation for river management; The case study of the Grensmaas project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkering, P.; Krywkow, Jorg; Rotmans, J.; van der Veen, A.; Douben, N.; van Os, A.G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we present a coupled Integrated River Model – Agent Based Social Simulation model (IRM-ABSS) for river management. The models represent the case of the ongoing river engineering project “Grensmaas”. In the ABSS model stakeholders are represented as computer agents negotiating a river

  14. An Empirical Agent-Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiah, Venu; Binder, Andrew R; Berglund, Emily Z

    2017-10-01

    Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large-scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision-making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent-based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the "risk publics" model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community-level parameters-including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data-are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Application potential of Agent Based Simulation and Discrete Event Simulation in Enterprise integration modelling concepts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Eric DOSSOU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;} This paper aims to present the dilemma of simulation tool selection. Authors discuss the examples of methodologies of enterprises architectures (CIMOSA and GRAI where agent approach is used to solve planning and managing problems. Actually simulation is widely used and practically only one tool which can enable verification of complex systems. Many companies face the problem, which simulation tool is appropriate to use for verification. Selected tools based on ABS and DES are presented. Some tools combining DES and ABS approaches are described. Authors give some recommendation on selection process.

  16. Application potential of Agent Based Simulation and Discrete Event Simulation in Enterprise integration modelling concepts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawel PAWLEWSKI

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;} This paper aims to present the dilemma of simulation tool selection. Authors discuss the examples of methodologies of enterprises architectures (CIMOSA and GRAI where agent approach is used to solve planning and managing problems. Actually simulation is widely used and practically only one tool which can enable verification of complex systems. Many companies face the problem, which simulation tool is appropriate to use for verification. Selected tools based on ABS and DES are presented. Some tools combining DES and ABS approaches are described. Authors give some recommendation on selection process.

  17. Modelling and Simulating Complex Systems in Biology: introducing NetBioDyn : A Pedagogical and Intuitive Agent-Based Software

    OpenAIRE

    Ballet, Pascal; Rivière, Jérémy; Pothet, Alain; Théron, Michaël; Pichavant, Karine; Abautret, Frank; Fronville, Alexandra; Rodin, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Modelling and teaching complex biological systems is a difficult process. Multi-Agent Based Simulations (MABS) have proved to be an appropriate approach both in research and education when dealing with such systems including emergent, self-organizing phenomena. This chapter presents NetBioDyn, an original software aimed at biologists (students, teachers, researchers) to easily build and simulate complex biological mechanisms observed in multicellular and molecular syst...

  18. Towards Agent-Based Simulation of Emerging and Large-Scale Social Networks. Examples of the Migrant Crisis and MMORPGs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schatten, Markus

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale agent based simulation of social networks is described in the context of the migrant crisis in Syria and the EU as well as massively multi-player on-line role playing games (MMORPG. The recipeWorld system by Terna and Fontana is proposed as a possible solution to simulating large-scale social networks. The initial system has been re-implemented using the Smart Python multi-Agent Development Environment (SPADE and Pyinteractive was used for visualization. We present initial models of simulation that we plan to develop further in future studies. Thus this paper is research in progress that will hopefully establish a novel agent-based modelling system in the context of the ModelMMORPG project.

  19. On the engineering of agent-based simulations of social activities with social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ronald, N.A.; Dignum, V.; Jonker, C.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Context Models of how people move around cities play a role in making decisions about urban and land-use planning. Previous models have been based on space and time, and have neglected the social aspect of travel. Recent work on agent-based modelling shows promise as a new approach, especially for

  20. Enhancing Transportation Education through On-line Simulation using an Agent-Based Demand and Assignment Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shanjiang Zhu; Feng Xie; David Levinson

    2005-01-01

    This research explores the effectiveness of using simulation as a tool for enhancing classroom learning in the Civil Engineering Department of the University of Minnesota at Twin Cities. The authors developed a modern transportation planning software package, Agent-based Demand and Assignment Model (ADAM), that is consistent with our present understanding of travel behavior, that is platform independent, and that is easy to learn and is thus usable by students. An in-class project incorporate...

  1. Modelling and simulation of electrical energy systems through a complex systems approach using agent-based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, Enrique

    2013-10-01

    Complexity science aims to better understand the processes of both natural and man-made systems which are composed of many interacting entities at different scales. A disaggregated approach is proposed for simulating electricity systems, by using agent-based models coupled to continuous ones. The approach can help in acquiring a better understanding of the operation of the system itself, e.g. on emergent phenomena or scale effects; as well as in the improvement and design of future smart grids.

  2. Agent-based Modeling Simulation Analysis on the Regulation of Institutional Investor's Encroachment Behavior in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores the effective regulation of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market. Given the theoretical and practical importance, the present study examines the effect of the self-adaptive regulation strategy (adjusting the regulation factors such as punishment and the probability of investigating successfully in time for the sake of the small & medium-sized investor protection.Design/methodology/approach: This study was carried out through game theory and agent-based modeling simulation. Firstly, a dynamic game model was built to search the core factors of regulation and the equilibrium paths. Secondly, an agent-based modeling simulation model was built in Swarm to extend the game model. Finally, a simulation experiment (using virtual parameter values was performed to examine the effect of regulation strategy obtained form game model.Findings: The results of this study showed that the core factors of avoiding the institutional investor's encroachment behavior are the punishment and the probability of investigating successfully of the regulator. The core factors embody as the self-adaptability and the capability of regulator. If the regulator can adjust the regulation factors in time, the illegal behaviors will be avoided effectively.Research limitations/implications: The simulation experiment in this paper was performed with virtual parameter values. Although the results of experiment showed the effect of self-adaptive regulation, there are still some differences between simulation experiment and real market situation.Originality/value: The purpose of this study is to investigate an effective regulation strategy of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market in order to maintain market order and protect the benefits of investors. Base on the game model and simulation model, a simulation experiment was preformed and the result showed that the self-adaptive regulation would be effective

  3. Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

  4. Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

    2014-07-01

    Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

  5. Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maya Sopha, Bertha; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2011-01-01

    Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed. - Research highlights: → The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation is applied to investigate potential policy options toward diffusion of wood-pellet heating in Norway. → Relative advantages are necessary for wood-pellet heating to be adopted, consistent with Diffusion of Innovation theory (). → Simultaneous development is also required for further uptake of wood-pellet heating, supporting the existing empirical hypothesis by . → Persuading households to use environmentally friendly heating system is not a promising driver, in line with empirical finding of , who investigated psychological factors underlying the adoption of wood-pellet heating.

  6. Exploring policy options for a transition to sustainable heating system diffusion using an agent-based simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maya Sopha, Bertha, E-mail: bertha.sopha@ntnu.n [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Kloeckner, Christian A. [Department of Psychology, Section for Risk Psychology, Environment and Safety (RIPENSA), Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Hertwich, Edgar G. [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway)

    2011-05-15

    Change in home heating to more efficient and renewable systems is important for a sound climate policy. The present paper aims to identify potential interventions for the uptake of wood-pellet heating in Norway using an agent-based model (ABM). The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation demonstrates that financial support, i.e., a stable wood-pellet price, and technical development, i.e., functional reliability improvement, have to be established all at the same time for a successful wood-pellet market to start. Furthermore, a soft intervention through persuading households to use environmentally beneficial heating system is not a promising driver for wood-pellet diffusion. Limitations and suggestions for future work are also discussed. - Research highlights: {yields} The theoretically based, empirically founded, agent-based simulation is applied to investigate potential policy options toward diffusion of wood-pellet heating in Norway. {yields} Relative advantages are necessary for wood-pellet heating to be adopted, consistent with Diffusion of Innovation theory (). {yields} Simultaneous development is also required for further uptake of wood-pellet heating, supporting the existing empirical hypothesis by . {yields} Persuading households to use environmentally friendly heating system is not a promising driver, in line with empirical finding of , who investigated psychological factors underlying the adoption of wood-pellet heating.

  7. Pattern-oriented Agent-based Monte Carlo simulation of Cellular Redox Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Jiaowei; Holcombe, Mike; Boonen, Harrie C.M.

    /CYSS) and mitochondrial redox couples. Evidence suggests that both intracellular and extracellular redox can affect overall cell redox state. How redox is communicated between extracellular and intracellular environments is still a matter of debate. Some researchers conclude based on experimental data...... cells. Biochimica Et Biophysica Acta-General Subjects, 2008. 1780(11): p. 1271-1290. 5. Jones, D.P., Redox sensing: orthogonal control in cell cycle and apoptosis signalling. J Intern Med, 2010. 268(5): p. 432-48. 6. Pogson, M., et al., Formal agent-based modelling of intracellular chemical interactions...

  8. On-lattice agent-based simulation of populations of cells within the open-source Chaste framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueredo, Grazziela P; Joshi, Tanvi V; Osborne, James M; Byrne, Helen M; Owen, Markus R

    2013-04-06

    Over the years, agent-based models have been developed that combine cell division and reinforced random walks of cells on a regular lattice, reaction-diffusion equations for nutrients and growth factors; and ordinary differential equations for the subcellular networks regulating the cell cycle. When linked to a vascular layer, this multiple scale model framework has been applied to tumour growth and therapy. Here, we report on the creation of an agent-based multi-scale environment amalgamating the characteristics of these models within a Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Exemplar Project. This project enables reuse, integration, expansion and sharing of the model and relevant data. The agent-based and reaction-diffusion parts of the multi-scale model have been implemented and are available for download as part of the latest public release of Chaste (Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment; http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste/), part of the VPH Toolkit (http://toolkit.vph-noe.eu/). The environment functionalities are verified against the original models, in addition to extra validation of all aspects of the code. In this work, we present the details of the implementation of the agent-based environment, including the system description, the conceptual model, the development of the simulation model and the processes of verification and validation of the simulation results. We explore the potential use of the environment by presenting exemplar applications of the 'what if' scenarios that can easily be studied in the environment. These examples relate to tumour growth, cellular competition for resources and tumour responses to hypoxia (low oxygen levels). We conclude our work by summarizing the future steps for the expansion of the current system.

  9. On-lattice agent-based simulation of populations of cells within the open-source Chaste framework

    KAUST Repository

    Figueredo, G. P.

    2013-02-21

    Over the years, agent-based models have been developed that combine cell division and reinforced random walks of cells on a regular lattice, reaction-diffusion equations for nutrients and growth factors; and ordinary differential equations for the subcellular networks regulating the cell cycle. When linked to a vascular layer, this multiple scale model framework has been applied to tumour growth and therapy. Here, we report on the creation of an agent-based multi-scale environment amalgamating the characteristics of these models within a Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Exemplar Project. This project enables reuse, integration, expansion and sharing of the model and relevant data. The agent-based and reaction-diffusion parts of the multi-scale model have been implemented and are available for download as part of the latest public release of Chaste (Cancer, Heart and Soft Tissue Environment; http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste/), part of the VPH Toolkit (http://toolkit.vph-noe.eu/). The environment functionalities are verified against the original models, in addition to extra validation of all aspects of the code. In this work, we present the details of the implementation of the agent-based environment, including the system description, the conceptual model, the development of the simulation model and the processes of verification and validation of the simulation results. We explore the potential use of the environment by presenting exemplar applications of the \\'what if\\' scenarios that can easily be studied in the environment. These examples relate to tumour growth, cellular competition for resources and tumour responses to hypoxia (low oxygen levels). We conclude our work by summarizing the future steps for the expansion of the current system.

  10. Using the Integration of Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation to Enhance Outpatient Service Quality in an Orthopedic Department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cholada Kittipittayakorn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many hospitals are currently paying more attention to patient satisfaction since it is an important service quality index. Many Asian countries’ healthcare systems have a mixed-type registration, accepting both walk-in patients and scheduled patients. This complex registration system causes a long patient waiting time in outpatient clinics. Different approaches have been proposed to reduce the waiting time. This study uses the integration of discrete event simulation (DES and agent-based simulation (ABS to improve patient waiting time and is the first attempt to apply this approach to solve this key problem faced by orthopedic departments. From the data collected, patient behaviors are modeled and incorporated into a massive agent-based simulation. The proposed approach is an aid for analyzing and modifying orthopedic department processes, allows us to consider far more details, and provides more reliable results. After applying the proposed approach, the total waiting time of the orthopedic department fell from 1246.39 minutes to 847.21 minutes. Thus, using the correct simulation model significantly reduces patient waiting time in an orthopedic department.

  11. Applying GIS and high performance agent-based simulation for managing an Old World Screwworm fly invasion of Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, M C; Kwan, P W; Sajeev, A S M

    2014-10-01

    Agent-based modelling has proven to be a promising approach for developing rich simulations for complex phenomena that provide decision support functions across a broad range of areas including biological, social and agricultural sciences. This paper demonstrates how high performance computing technologies, namely General-Purpose Computing on Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU), and commercial Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be applied to develop a national scale, agent-based simulation of an incursion of Old World Screwworm fly (OWS fly) into the Australian mainland. The development of this simulation model leverages the combination of massively data-parallel processing capabilities supported by NVidia's Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) and the advanced spatial visualisation capabilities of GIS. These technologies have enabled the implementation of an individual-based, stochastic lifecycle and dispersal algorithm for the OWS fly invasion. The simulation model draws upon a wide range of biological data as input to stochastically determine the reproduction and survival of the OWS fly through the different stages of its lifecycle and dispersal of gravid females. Through this model, a highly efficient computational platform has been developed for studying the effectiveness of control and mitigation strategies and their associated economic impact on livestock industries can be materialised. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Using the Integration of Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation to Enhance Outpatient Service Quality in an Orthopedic Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittipittayakorn, Cholada; Ying, Kuo-Ching

    2016-01-01

    Many hospitals are currently paying more attention to patient satisfaction since it is an important service quality index. Many Asian countries' healthcare systems have a mixed-type registration, accepting both walk-in patients and scheduled patients. This complex registration system causes a long patient waiting time in outpatient clinics. Different approaches have been proposed to reduce the waiting time. This study uses the integration of discrete event simulation (DES) and agent-based simulation (ABS) to improve patient waiting time and is the first attempt to apply this approach to solve this key problem faced by orthopedic departments. From the data collected, patient behaviors are modeled and incorporated into a massive agent-based simulation. The proposed approach is an aid for analyzing and modifying orthopedic department processes, allows us to consider far more details, and provides more reliable results. After applying the proposed approach, the total waiting time of the orthopedic department fell from 1246.39 minutes to 847.21 minutes. Thus, using the correct simulation model significantly reduces patient waiting time in an orthopedic department.

  13. ABS-TrustSDN: An Agent-Based Simulator of Trust Strategies in Software-Defined Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván García-Magariño

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Software-defined networks (SDNs have become a mechanism to separate the control plane and the data plane in the communication in networks. SDNs involve several challenges around their security and their confidentiality. Ideally, SDNs should incorporate autonomous and adaptive systems for controlling the routing to be able to isolate network resources that may be malfunctioning or whose security has been compromised with malware. The current work introduces a novel agent-based framework that simulates SDN isolation protocols by means of trust and reputation models. This way, SDN programmers may estimate the repercussions of certain isolation protocols based on trust models before actually deploying the protocol into the network.

  14. Analysis of Interactions of Key Stakeholders on B2C e-Markets - Agent Based Modelling and Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Aleksandar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/purpose: This paper discusses the application of ABMS - agent-based modelling and simulation in the analysis of customer behaviour on B2C e-commerce websites as well as in the analysis of various business decisions upon the effects of on-line sales. The continuous development and dynamics in the field of e-commerce requires application of advanced decision-making tools. These tools must be able to process, in a short time period, a large amount of data generated by the e-commerce systems and enable the use of acquired data for making quality business decisions.

  15. Diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials from quantum dots-based nanotechnologies: an agent-based modeling simulation framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agusdinata, Datu Buyung, E-mail: bagusdinata@niu.edu; Amouie, Mahbod [Northern Illinois University, Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Environment, Sustainability, & Energy Institute (United States); Xu, Tao [Northern Illinois University, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (United States)

    2015-01-15

    Due to their favorable electrical and optical properties, quantum dots (QDs) nanostructures have found numerous applications including nanomedicine and photovoltaic cells. However, increased future production, use, and disposal of engineered QD products also raise concerns about their potential environmental impacts. The objective of this work is to establish a modeling framework for predicting the diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials released from Trioctylphosphine oxide-capped CdSe. To this end, an agent-based model simulation with reaction kinetics and Brownian motion dynamics was developed. Reaction kinetics is used to model the stability of surface capping agent particularly due to oxidation process. The diffusion of toxic Cd{sup 2+} ions in aquatic environment was simulated using an adapted Brownian motion algorithm. A calibrated parameter to reflect sensitivity to reaction rate is proposed. The model output demonstrates the stochastic spatial distribution of toxic Cd{sup 2+} ions under different values of proxy environmental factor parameters. With the only chemistry considered was oxidation, the simulation was able to replicate Cd{sup 2+} ion release from Thiol-capped QDs in aerated water. The agent-based method is the first to be developed in the QDs application domain. It adds both simplicity of the solubility and rate of release of Cd{sup 2+} ions and complexity of tracking of individual atoms of Cd at the same time.

  16. Diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials from quantum dots-based nanotechnologies: an agent-based modeling simulation framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusdinata, Datu Buyung; Amouie, Mahbod; Xu, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Due to their favorable electrical and optical properties, quantum dots (QDs) nanostructures have found numerous applications including nanomedicine and photovoltaic cells. However, increased future production, use, and disposal of engineered QD products also raise concerns about their potential environmental impacts. The objective of this work is to establish a modeling framework for predicting the diffusion dynamics and concentration of toxic materials released from Trioctylphosphine oxide-capped CdSe. To this end, an agent-based model simulation with reaction kinetics and Brownian motion dynamics was developed. Reaction kinetics is used to model the stability of surface capping agent particularly due to oxidation process. The diffusion of toxic Cd 2+ ions in aquatic environment was simulated using an adapted Brownian motion algorithm. A calibrated parameter to reflect sensitivity to reaction rate is proposed. The model output demonstrates the stochastic spatial distribution of toxic Cd 2+ ions under different values of proxy environmental factor parameters. With the only chemistry considered was oxidation, the simulation was able to replicate Cd 2+ ion release from Thiol-capped QDs in aerated water. The agent-based method is the first to be developed in the QDs application domain. It adds both simplicity of the solubility and rate of release of Cd 2+ ions and complexity of tracking of individual atoms of Cd at the same time

  17. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  18. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states. (paper)

  19. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-10-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states.

  20. Analyzing maintenance strategies by agent-based simulations: A feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaegi, M.; Mock, R.; Kroeger, W.

    2009-01-01

    Thoroughly planned and implemented maintenance strategies save time and cost. However, the integration of maintenance work into reliability analysis is difficult as common modeling techniques are often not applicable due to state explosion which calls for restrictive model assumptions and oversimplification. From authors' point of view, agent-based modeling (ABM) of technical and organizational systems is a promising approach to overcome such problems. But since ABM is not well established in reliability analysis its feasibility in this area still has to be demonstrated. For this purpose ABM is compared with Markov chains, namely by analyzing the reliability of a maintained n-unit system with dependent repair events, applying both modeling approaches. Although ABM and Markov chains lead to the same numerical results, the former points out the potentiality of an improved system state handling. This is demonstrated by extending the ABM with operators as additional 'agents' featuring their location (x;y) availability (0;1) and different maintenance strategies. This extension highlights the capability of ABM to analyze complex emergent system behavior and allows a systematic refinement and optimization of the maintenance strategies.

  1. Agent-Based Simulation of School Choice in Bandung, Indonesia: The Emergence of Enrolment Pattern Trough Individual Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhanan Sarwo Utomo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is motivated by the reality that school choice programs that is currently implemented in Bandung that, always resulting student deficit (lack of student in some schools. In this study, a mechanism that can describe how the enrollment pattern in a school choice program emerge as a result of individual preferences of the prospective students, is constructed. Using computer simulation, virtual experiments are conducted. In these experiments, the enrollment patterns and the number of student deficit that were resulted by various school choice program configurations are analyzed. Based on the experiment results, modification of the current program that can minimize the number of student deficit can be purposed.Keywords: agent-based simulation, school choice, computer simulation

  2. Simulation of the Role of Government in Spatial Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Ivanovich Suslov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the further development of an agent-based multiregional input-output model of the Russian economy. We consider the idea of incorporating the government into the model and analyze the results of experimental calculations for the conditional example of spatial economy. New agents are included into the model such as the federal and regional governments, pension fund and also the state enterprises producing public goods at the federal and regional levels. The government sets four types of taxes (personal and business income taxes, VAT and payroll taxes, ensures the provision of public goods and provides social, investment and interbudgetary transfers to households, firms and budgets. Social transfers consist of social assistance and unemployment benefits. The utility functions of households are expanded by the terms associated with national and regional public goods. The budget policy is designed in accordance with the maximization of isoelastic function of social welfare that formalizes the choice between the different concepts of social justice. The Gini index is used for the monitoring the inequality of income distribution. The results of experimental calculations present the convergence of the new version of the model to the state of quasi-equilibrium. The special attention is paid an optimal level of the taxation maximizing the social welfare function. Four variants of the optimal tax rates are defined: for three major taxes at a fixed proportion of rates and for each of the tax separately at zero rates of two other taxes. The further directions of modelling are identified, they allow to investigate the spatial development of the Russian economy taking into account the decision-making by private agents in responding to government policies.

  3. MODELING OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN STOCKS MARKETS: AN APPROACH FROM MULTI AGENT BASED SIMULATION AND FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO ESCOBAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simulation model of a complex system, in this case a financial market, using a MultiAgent Based Simulation approach. Such model takes into account microlevel aspects like the Continuous Double Auction mechanism, which is widely used within stock markets, as well as investor agents reasoning who participate looking for profits. To model such reasoning several variables were considered including general stocks information like profitability and volatility, but also some agent's aspects like their risk tendency. All these variables are incorporated throughout a fuzzy logic approach trying to represent in a faithful manner the kind of reasoning that nonexpert investors have, including a stochastic component in order to model human factors.

  4. An agent-based simulation of power generation company behavior in electricity markets under different market-clearing mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aliabadi, Danial Esmaeili; Kaya, Murat; Şahin, Güvenç

    2017-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets are expected to provide affordable electricity for consumers through promoting competition. Yet, the results do not always fulfill the expectations. The regulator's market-clearing mechanism is a strategic choice that may affect the level of competition in the market. We conceive of the market-clearing mechanism as composed of two components: pricing rules and rationing policies. We investigate the strategic behavior of power generation companies under different market-clearing mechanisms using an agent-based simulation model which integrates a game-theoretical understanding of the auction mechanism in the electricity market and generation companies' learning mechanism. Results of our simulation experiments are presented using various case studies representing different market settings. The market in simulations is observed to converge to a Nash equilibrium of the stage game or to a similar state under most parameter combinations. Compared to pay-as-bid pricing, bid prices are closer to marginal costs on average under uniform pricing while GenCos' total profit is also higher. The random rationing policy of the ISO turns out to be more successful in achieving lower bid prices and lower GenCo profits. In minimizing GenCos' total profit, a combination of pay-as-bid pricing rule and random rationing policy is observed to be the most promising. - Highlights: • An agent-based simulation of generation company behavior in electricity markets is developed. • Learning dynamics of companies is modeled with an extended Q-learning algorithm. • Different market clearing mechanisms of the regulator are compared. • Convergence to Nash equilibria is analyzed under different cases. • The level of competition in the market is studied.

  5. Optimization of Intelligent Munition Warfare Using Agent-Based Simulation Software and Design of Experiments Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Floersheim, Bruce; Hou, Gene

    2006-01-01

    ... mechanism for a number of vehicles caught in the killzone. Thus, it is useful to study and attempt to model through equations and simulation the interaction between enemy agents and these new munitions...

  6. Autonomic, Agent-Based Simulation Management (A2SM) Framework, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Large scale numerical simulations, as typified by climate models, space weather models, and the like, typically involve non-linear governing equations in discretized...

  7. Social self-organization agent-based simulations and experiments to study emergent social behavior

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    What are the principles that keep our society together? This question is even more difficult to answer than the long-standing question, what are the forces that keep our world together. However, the social challenges of humanity in the 21st century ranging from the financial crises to the impacts of globalization, require us to make fast progress in our understanding of how society works, and how our future can be managed in a resilient and sustainable way. This book can present only a few very first steps towards this ambitious goal. However, based on simple models of social interactions, one can already gain some surprising insights into the social, ``macro-level'' outcomes and dynamics that is implied by individual, ``micro-level'' interactions. Depending on the nature of these interactions, they may imply the spontaneous formation of social conventions or the birth of social cooperation, but also their sudden breakdown. This can end in deadly crowd disasters or tragedies of the commons (such as financial ...

  8. Estimation of Financial Agent-Based Models with Simulated Maximum Likelihood

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukačka, Jiří; Baruník, Jozef

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 85, č. 1 (2017), s. 21-45 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : heterogeneous agent model, * simulated maximum likelihood * switching Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Finance Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kukacka-0478481.pdf

  9. Developing an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Urban Land-Use Expansion (Case Study: Qazvin)

    OpenAIRE

    F. Nourian; A. A. Alesheikh; F. Hosseinali

    2012-01-01

    Extended abstract1-IntroductionUrban land-use expansion is a challenging issue in developing countries. Increases in population as well as the immigration from the villages to the cities are the two major factors for that phenomenon. Those factors have reduced the influence of efforts that try to limit the cities’ boundaries. Thus, spatial planners always look for the models that simulate the expansion of urban land-uses and enable them to prevent unbalanced expansions of cities and guide the...

  10. Wealth distribution, Pareto law, and stretched exponential decay of money: Computer simulations analysis of agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydiner, Ekrem; Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Metzler, Ralf

    2018-01-01

    We study by Monte Carlo simulations a kinetic exchange trading model for both fixed and distributed saving propensities of the agents and rationalize the person and wealth distributions. We show that the newly introduced wealth distribution - that may be more amenable in certain situations - features a different power-law exponent, particularly for distributed saving propensities of the agents. For open agent-based systems, we analyze the person and wealth distributions and find that the presence of trap agents alters their amplitude, leaving however the scaling exponents nearly unaffected. For an open system, we show that the total wealth - for different trap agent densities and saving propensities of the agents - decreases in time according to the classical Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts stretched exponential law. Interestingly, this decay does not depend on the trap agent density, but rather on saving propensities. The system relaxation for fixed and distributed saving schemes are found to be different.

  11. Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Betti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters. The simulation tracks bees of different ages and castes, food stores within the colony, pollen and nectar sources and the spatial position of individual foragers outside the hive. We track explicitly the intake of pesticides in individual bees and their ability to metabolize these toxins, such that the impact of sub-lethal doses of pesticides can be explored. Moreover, pathogen populations (in particular, Nosema apis, Nosema cerenae and Varroa mites have been included in the model and may be introduced at any time or location. The ability to study interactions among pesticides, climate, biodiversity and pathogens in this predictive framework should prove useful to a wide range of researchers studying honey bee populations. To this end, the simulation package is written in open source, object-oriented code (C++ and can be easily modified by the user. Here, we demonstrate the use of the model by exploring the effects of sub-lethal pesticide exposure on the flight behaviour of foragers.

  12. Enabling the Analysis of Emergent Behavior in Future Electrical Distribution Systems Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kolen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In future electrical distribution systems, component heterogeneity and their cyber-physical interactions through electrical lines and communication lead to emergent system behavior. As the distribution systems represent the largest part of an energy system with respect to the number of nodes and components, large-scale studies of their emergent behavior are vital for the development of decentralized control strategies. This paper presents and evaluates DistAIX, a novel agent-based modeling and simulation tool to conduct such studies. The major novelty is a parallelization of the entire model—including the power system, communication system, control, and all interactions—using processes instead of threads. Thereby, a distribution of the simulation to multiple computing nodes with a distributed memory architecture becomes possible. This makes DistAIX scalable and allows the inclusion of as many processing units in the simulation as desired. The scalability of DistAIX is demonstrated by simulations of large-scale scenarios. Additionally, the capability of observing emergent behavior is demonstrated for an exemplary distribution grid with a large number of interacting components.

  13. Multi-Agent Based Microscopic Simulation Modeling for Urban Traffic Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianyan Kuang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic simulation plays an important role in the evaluation of traffic decisions. The movement of vehicles essentially is the operating process of drivers, in order to reproduce the urban traffic flow from the micro-aspect on computer, this paper establishes an urban traffic flow microscopic simulation system (UTFSim based on multi-agent. The system is seen as an intelligent virtual environment system (IVES, and the four-layer structure of it is built. The road agent, vehicle agent and signal agent are modeled. The concept of driving trajectory which is divided into LDT (Lane Driving Trajectory and VDDT (Vehicle Dynamic Driving Trajectory is introduced. The “Link-Node” road network model is improved. The driving behaviors including free driving, following driving, lane changing, slowing down, vehicle stop, etc. are analyzed. The results of the signal control experiments utilizing the UTFSim developed in the platform of Visual Studio. NET indicates that it plays a good performance and can be used in the evaluation of traffic management and control.

  14. Evolutionary Agent-Based Simulation of the Introduction of New Technologies in Air Traffic Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yliniemi, Logan; Agogino, Adrian K.; Tumer, Kagan

    2014-01-01

    Accurate simulation of the effects of integrating new technologies into a complex system is critical to the modernization of our antiquated air traffic system, where there exist many layers of interacting procedures, controls, and automation all designed to cooperate with human operators. Additions of even simple new technologies may result in unexpected emergent behavior due to complex human/ machine interactions. One approach is to create high-fidelity human models coming from the field of human factors that can simulate a rich set of behaviors. However, such models are difficult to produce, especially to show unexpected emergent behavior coming from many human operators interacting simultaneously within a complex system. Instead of engineering complex human models, we directly model the emergent behavior by evolving goal directed agents, representing human users. Using evolution we can predict how the agent representing the human user reacts given his/her goals. In this paradigm, each autonomous agent in a system pursues individual goals, and the behavior of the system emerges from the interactions, foreseen or unforeseen, between the agents/actors. We show that this method reflects the integration of new technologies in a historical case, and apply the same methodology for a possible future technology.

  15. The contribution of agent-based simulations to conservation management on a Natura 2000 site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Hélène; Gourmelon, Françoise; Rouan, Mathias; Le Viol, Isabelle; Kerbiriou, Christian

    2016-03-01

    The conservation of biodiversity today must include the participation and support of local stakeholders. Natura 2000 can be considered as a conservation system that, in its application in most EU countries, relies on the participation of local stakeholders. Our study proposes a scientific method for participatory modelling, with the aim of contributing to the conservation management of habitats and species at a Natura 2000 site (Crozon Peninsula, Bretagne, France) that is representative of in landuse changes in coastal areas. We make use of companion modelling and its associated tools (scenario-planning, GIS, multi-agent modelling and simulations) to consider possible futures through the co-construction of management scenarios and the understanding of their consequences on different indicators of biodiversity status (habitats, avifauna, flora). The maintenance of human activities as they have been carried out since the creation of the Natura 2000s zone allows the biodiversity values to remain stable. Extensive agricultural activities have been shown to be essential to this maintenance, whereas management sustained by the multiplication of conservation actions brings about variable results according to the indicators. None of the scenarios has a positive incidence on the set of indicators. However, an understanding of the modelling system and the results of the simulations allow for the refining of the selection of conservation actions in relation to the species to be preserved. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. ActivitySim: large-scale agent based activity generation for infrastructure simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gali, Emmanuel [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Eidenbenz, Stephan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mniszewski, Sue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Cuellar, Leticia [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Teuscher, Christof [PORTLAND STATE UNIV

    2008-01-01

    The United States' Department of Homeland Security aims to model, simulate, and analyze critical infrastructure and their interdependencies across multiple sectors such as electric power, telecommunications, water distribution, transportation, etc. We introduce ActivitySim, an activity simulator for a population of millions of individual agents each characterized by a set of demographic attributes that is based on US census data. ActivitySim generates daily schedules for each agent that consists of a sequence of activities, such as sleeping, shopping, working etc., each being scheduled at a geographic location, such as businesses or private residences that is appropriate for the activity type and for the personal situation of the agent. ActivitySim has been developed as part of a larger effort to understand the interdependencies among national infrastructure networks and their demand profiles that emerge from the different activities of individuals in baseline scenarios as well as emergency scenarios, such as hurricane evacuations. We present the scalable software engineering principles underlying ActivitySim, the socia-technical modeling paradigms that drive the activity generation, and proof-of-principle results for a scenario in the Twin Cities, MN area of 2.6 M agents.

  17. An Agent-Based Simulation for Investigating the Impact of Stereotypes on Task-Oriented Group Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghami, Mahsa; Sukthankar, Gita

    In this paper, we introduce an agent-based simulation for investigating the impact of social factors on the formation and evolution of task-oriented groups. Task-oriented groups are created explicitly to perform a task, and all members derive benefits from task completion. However, even in cases when all group members act in a way that is locally optimal for task completion, social forces that have mild effects on choice of associates can have a measurable impact on task completion performance. In this paper, we show how our simulation can be used to model the impact of stereotypes on group formation. In our simulation, stereotypes are based on observable features, learned from prior experience, and only affect an agent's link formation preferences. Even without assuming stereotypes affect the agents' willingness or ability to complete tasks, the long-term modifications that stereotypes have on the agents' social network impair the agents' ability to form groups with sufficient diversity of skills, as compared to agents who form links randomly. An interesting finding is that this effect holds even in cases where stereotype preference and skill existence are completely uncorrelated.

  18. POLARIS: Agent-based modeling framework development and implementation for integrated travel demand and network and operations simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auld, Joshua; Hope, Michael; Ley, Hubert; Sokolov, Vadim; Xu, Bo; Zhang, Kuilin

    2016-03-01

    This paper discusses the development of an agent-based modelling software development kit, and the implementation and validation of a model using it that integrates dynamic simulation of travel demand, network supply and network operations. A description is given of the core utilities in the kit: a parallel discrete event engine, interprocess exchange engine, and memory allocator, as well as a number of ancillary utilities: visualization library, database IO library, and scenario manager. The overall framework emphasizes the design goals of: generality, code agility, and high performance. This framework allows the modeling of several aspects of transportation system that are typically done with separate stand-alone software applications, in a high-performance and extensible manner. The issue of integrating such models as dynamic traffic assignment and disaggregate demand models has been a long standing issue for transportation modelers. The integrated approach shows a possible way to resolve this difficulty. The simulation model built from the POLARIS framework is a single, shared-memory process for handling all aspects of the integrated urban simulation. The resulting gains in computational efficiency and performance allow planning models to be extended to include previously separate aspects of the urban system, enhancing the utility of such models from the planning perspective. Initial tests with case studies involving traffic management center impacts on various network events such as accidents, congestion and weather events, show the potential of the system.

  19. R&D networks and regional knowledge production: an agent-based simulation of the Austrian competence centres programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Korber

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Publicly funded competence centres have gained high recognition for improving science-industry collaboration. With the requirement for long-term and geographically concentrated R&D, competence centres provide an environment for joint learning and transfer of “sticky” knowledge. The objective of this paper is to investigate how a competence centres programme affects knowledge production in the regional innovation system. In order to address this issue, we draw on a simulation approach and develop an agent-based model of the Vienna Life Sciences innovation system. Companies, research organisations and universities are heterogeneous agents that create scientific publications, patents, as well as high-tech jobs. Simulation runs refer to long-term scenarios regarding the level and duration of public funding. By addressing the complexities of knowledge interaction in the context of the “local buzz” versus “global pipelines” discussion, the results show the potential of empirically calibrated simulation models for ex-ante impact assessment in R&D policy.

  20. An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yousefi

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc. to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department.

  1. Towards a complex systems approach in sports injury research: simulating running-related injury development with agent-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Adam; Thompson, Jason; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Read, Gemma J M; Salmon, Paul M

    2018-06-18

    There have been recent calls for the application of the complex systems approach in sports injury research. However, beyond theoretical description and static models of complexity, little progress has been made towards formalising this approach in way that is practical to sports injury scientists and clinicians. Therefore, our objective was to use a computational modelling method and develop a dynamic simulation in sports injury research. Agent-based modelling (ABM) was used to model the occurrence of sports injury in a synthetic athlete population. The ABM was developed based on sports injury causal frameworks and was applied in the context of distance running-related injury (RRI). Using the acute:chronic workload ratio (ACWR), we simulated the dynamic relationship between changes in weekly running distance and RRI through the manipulation of various 'athlete management tools'. The findings confirmed that building weekly running distances over time, even within the reported ACWR 'sweet spot', will eventually result in RRI as athletes reach and surpass their individual physical workload limits. Introducing training-related error into the simulation and the modelling of a 'hard ceiling' dynamic resulted in a higher RRI incidence proportion across the population at higher absolute workloads. The presented simulation offers a practical starting point to further apply more sophisticated computational models that can account for the complex nature of sports injury aetiology. Alongside traditional forms of scientific inquiry, the use of ABM and other simulation-based techniques could be considered as a complementary and alternative methodological approach in sports injury research. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  2. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  3. The Basic Immune Simulator: An agent-based model to study the interactions between innate and adaptive immunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orosz Charles G

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We introduce the Basic Immune Simulator (BIS, an agent-based model created to study the interactions between the cells of the innate and adaptive immune system. Innate immunity, the initial host response to a pathogen, generally precedes adaptive immunity, which generates immune memory for an antigen. The BIS simulates basic cell types, mediators and antibodies, and consists of three virtual spaces representing parenchymal tissue, secondary lymphoid tissue and the lymphatic/humoral circulation. The BIS includes a Graphical User Interface (GUI to facilitate its use as an educational and research tool. Results The BIS was used to qualitatively examine the innate and adaptive interactions of the immune response to a viral infection. Calibration was accomplished via a parameter sweep of initial agent population size, and comparison of simulation patterns to those reported in the basic science literature. The BIS demonstrated that the degree of the initial innate response was a crucial determinant for an appropriate adaptive response. Deficiency or excess in innate immunity resulted in excessive proliferation of adaptive immune cells. Deficiency in any of the immune system components increased the probability of failure to clear the simulated viral infection. Conclusion The behavior of the BIS matches both normal and pathological behavior patterns in a generic viral infection scenario. Thus, the BIS effectively translates mechanistic cellular and molecular knowledge regarding the innate and adaptive immune response and reproduces the immune system's complex behavioral patterns. The BIS can be used both as an educational tool to demonstrate the emergence of these patterns and as a research tool to systematically identify potential targets for more effective treatment strategies for diseases processes including hypersensitivity reactions (allergies, asthma, autoimmunity and cancer. We believe that the BIS can be a useful addition to

  4. “Space, the Final Frontier”: How Good are Agent-Based Models at Simulating Individuals and Space in Cities?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Heppenstall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are complex systems, comprising of many interacting parts. How we simulate and understand causality in urban systems is continually evolving. Over the last decade the agent-based modeling (ABM paradigm has provided a new lens for understanding the effects of interactions of individuals and how through such interactions macro structures emerge, both in the social and physical environment of cities. However, such a paradigm has been hindered due to computational power and a lack of large fine scale datasets. Within the last few years we have witnessed a massive increase in computational processing power and storage, combined with the onset of Big Data. Today geographers find themselves in a data rich era. We now have access to a variety of data sources (e.g., social media, mobile phone data, etc. that tells us how, and when, individuals are using urban spaces. These data raise several questions: can we effectively use them to understand and model cities as complex entities? How well have ABM approaches lent themselves to simulating the dynamics of urban processes? What has been, or will be, the influence of Big Data on increasing our ability to understand and simulate cities? What is the appropriate level of spatial analysis and time frame to model urban phenomena? Within this paper we discuss these questions using several examples of ABM applied to urban geography to begin a dialogue about the utility of ABM for urban modeling. The arguments that the paper raises are applicable across the wider research environment where researchers are considering using this approach.

  5. School beverage environment and children's energy expenditure associated with physical education class: an agent-based model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Kumanyika, S; Wang, Y

    2017-06-01

    Physical activity contributes to children's energy expenditure and prevents excess weight gain, but fluid replacement with sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) may diminish this benefit. The aim of this study was to explore the net energy expenditure (EE) after physical education (PE) class given the competition between water and SSB consumption for rehydration and explore environmental factors that may influence the net EE, e.g. PE duration, affordability of SSB and students' SSB preference. We built an agent-based model that simulates the behaviour of 13-year-old children in a PE class with nearby water fountains and SSB vending machines available. A longer PE class contributed to greater prevalence of dehydration and required more time for rehydration. The energy cost of a PE class with activity intensity equivalent to 45 min of jogging is about 300 kcal on average, i.e. 10-15% of average 13-year-old children's total daily EE. Adding an SSB vending machine could offset PE energy expenditure by as much as 90 kcal per child, which was associated with PE duration, students' pocket money and SSB preference. Sugar-sweetened beverage vending machines in school may offset some of the EE in PE classes. This could be avoided if water is the only readily available source for children's fluid replacement after class. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

  6. Agent based simulation on the process of human flesh search-From perspective of knowledge and emotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hou; Hu, Bin

    2017-03-01

    Human flesh search as a new net crowed behavior, on the one hand can help us to find some special information, on the other hand may lead to privacy leaking and offending human right. In order to study the mechanism of human flesh search, this paper proposes a simulation model based on agent-based model and complex networks. The computational experiments show some useful results. Discovered information quantity and involved personal ratio are highly correlated, and most of net citizens will take part in the human flesh search or will not take part in the human flesh search. Knowledge quantity does not influence involved personal ratio, but influences whether HFS can find out the target human. When the knowledge concentrates on hub nodes, the discovered information quantity is either perfect or almost zero. Emotion of net citizens influences both discovered information quantity and involved personal ratio. Concretely, when net citizens are calm to face the search topic, it will be hardly to find out the target; But when net citizens are agitated, the target will be found out easily.

  7. An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets. Agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Maleki-Shoja, B.; Skandari, M.R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative model of agent based simulation, based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed in order to compare three available strategies of clearing wholesale electricity markets, i.e. uniform, pay-as-bid, and generalized Vickrey rules. The supply side actors of the power market are modeled as adaptive agents who learn how to bid strategically to optimize their profit through indirect interaction with other actors of the market. The proposed model is proper for bidding functions with high number of dimensions and enables modelers to avoid curse of dimensionality as dimension grows. Test systems are then used to study the behavior of each pricing rule under different degrees of competition and heterogeneity. Finally, the pricing rules are comprehensively compared using different economic criteria such as average cleared price, efficiency of allocation, and price volatility. Also, principle component analysis (PCA) is used to rank and select the best price rule. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study that uses ACO for assessing strategies of wholesale electricity market. (author)

  8. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  9. Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic - Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2015-03-09

    We developed an agent-based model to investigate the epidemic dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia and Sierra Leone from May 27 to December 21, 2014. The dynamics of the agent-based simulator evolve on small-world transmission networks of sizes equal to the population of each country, with adjustable densities to account for the effects of public health intervention policies and individual behavioral responses to the evolving epidemic. Based on time series of the official case counts from the World Health Organization (WHO), we provide estimates for key epidemiological variables by employing the so-called Equation-Free approach. The underlying transmission networks were characterized by rather random structures in the two countries with densities decreasing by ~19% from the early (May 27-early August) to the last period (mid October-December 21). Our estimates for the values of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate, are very close to the ones reported by the WHO Ebola response team during the early period of the epidemic (until September 14) that were calculated based on clinical data. Specifically, regarding the effective reproductive number Re, our analysis suggests that until mid October, Re was above 2.3 in both countries; from mid October to December 21, Re dropped well below unity in Liberia, indicating a saturation of the epidemic, while in Sierra Leone it was around 1.9, indicating an ongoing epidemic. Accordingly, a ten-week projection from December 21 estimated that the epidemic will fade out in Liberia in early March; in contrast, our results flashed a note of caution for Sierra Leone since the cumulative number of cases could reach as high as 18,000, and the number of deaths might exceed 5,000, by early March 2015. However, by processing the reported data of the very last period (December 21, 2014-January 18, 2015), we obtained more optimistic estimates indicative of a remission of

  10. Understanding coupled natural and human systems on fire prone landscapes: integrating wildfire simulation into an agent based planning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Ana; Ager, Alan; Preisler, Haiganoush; Day, Michelle; Spies, Tom; Bolte, John

    2015-04-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) allow users to examine the long-term effects of agent decisions in complex systems where multiple agents and processes interact. This framework has potential application to study the dynamics of coupled natural and human systems where multiple stimuli determine trajectories over both space and time. We used Envision, a landscape based ABM, to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics in a heterogeneous, multi-owner landscape in Oregon, USA. Landscape dynamics are affected by land management policies, actors decisions, and autonomous processes such as vegetation succession, wildfire, or at a broader scale, climate change. Key questions include: 1) How are landscape dynamics influenced by policies and institutions, and 2) How do land management policies and actor decisions interact to produce intended and unintended consequences with respect to wildfire on fire-prone landscapes. Applying Envision to address these questions required the development of a wildfire module that could accurately simulate wildfires on the heterogeneous landscapes within the study area in terms of replicating historical fire size distribution, spatial distribution and fire intensity. In this paper we describe the development and testing of a mechanistic fire simulation system within Envision and application of the model on a 3.2 million fire prone landscape in central Oregon USA. The core fire spread equations use the Minimum Travel Time algorithm developed by M Finney. The model operates on a daily time step and uses a fire prediction system based on the relationship between energy release component and historical fires. Specifically, daily wildfire probabilities and sizes are generated from statistical analyses of historical fires in relation to daily ERC values. The MTT was coupled with the vegetation dynamics module in Envision to allow communication between the respective subsystem and effectively model fire effects and vegetation dynamics after a wildfire. Canopy and

  11. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Richard E; Jones, Makoto; Leecaster, Molly; Samore, Matthew H; Ray, William; Huttner, Angela; Huttner, Benedikt; Khader, Karim; Stevens, Vanessa W; Gerding, Dale; Schweizer, Marin L; Rubin, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together. We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a) aggressive C. difficile testing; (b) empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c) improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d) contact precautions; (e) improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f) improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1) base-case (BASE) values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2) intervention (INT) values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3) optimal (OPT) values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile. INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  12. MODELLING TEMPORAL SCHEDULE OF URBAN TRAINS USING AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND NSGA2-BASED MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sahelgozin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Increasing distances between locations of residence and services leads to a large number of daily commutes in urban areas. Developing subway systems has been taken into consideration of transportation managers as a response to this huge amount of travel demands. In developments of subway infrastructures, representing a temporal schedule for trains is an important task; because an appropriately designed timetable decreases Total passenger travel times, Total Operation Costs and Energy Consumption of trains. Since these variables are not positively correlated, subway scheduling is considered as a multi-criteria optimization problem. Therefore, proposing a proper solution for subway scheduling has been always a controversial issue. On the other hand, research on a phenomenon requires a summarized representation of the real world that is known as Model. In this study, it is attempted to model temporal schedule of urban trains that can be applied in Multi-Criteria Subway Schedule Optimization (MCSSO problems. At first, a conceptual framework is represented for MCSSO. Then, an agent-based simulation environment is implemented to perform Sensitivity Analysis (SA that is used to extract the interrelations between the framework components. These interrelations is then taken into account in order to construct the proposed model. In order to evaluate performance of the model in MCSSO problems, Tehran subway line no. 1 is considered as the case study. Results of the study show that the model was able to generate an acceptable distribution of Pareto-optimal solutions which are applicable in the real situations while solving a MCSSO is the goal. Also, the accuracy of the model in representing the operation of subway systems was significant.

  13. Health and economic benefits of public financing of epilepsy treatment in India: An agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megiddo, Itamar; Colson, Abigail; Chisholm, Dan; Dua, Tarun; Nandi, Arindam; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

    2016-03-01

    An estimated 6-10 million people in India live with active epilepsy, and less than half are treated. We analyze the health and economic benefits of three scenarios of publicly financed national epilepsy programs that provide: (1) first-line antiepilepsy drugs (AEDs), (2) first- and second-line AEDs, and (3) first- and second-line AEDs and surgery. We model the prevalence and distribution of epilepsy in India using IndiaSim, an agent-based, simulation model of the Indian population. Agents in the model are disease-free or in one of three disease states: untreated with seizures, treated with seizures, and treated without seizures. Outcome measures include the proportion of the population that has epilepsy and is untreated, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost per DALY averted. Economic benefit measures estimated include out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure averted and money-metric value of insurance. All three scenarios represent a cost-effective use of resources and would avert 800,000-1 million DALYs per year in India relative to the current scenario. However, especially in poor regions and populations, scenario 1 (which publicly finances only first-line therapy) does not decrease the OOP expenditure or provide financial risk protection if we include care-seeking costs. The OOP expenditure averted increases from scenarios 1 through 3, and the money-metric value of insurance follows a similar trend between scenarios and typically decreases with wealth. In the first 10 years of scenarios 2 and 3, households avert on average over US$80 million per year in medical expenditure. Expanding and publicly financing epilepsy treatment in India averts substantial disease burden. A universal public finance policy that covers only first-line AEDs may not provide significant financial risk protection. Covering costs for both first- and second-line therapy and other medical costs alleviates the financial burden from epilepsy and is cost-effective across wealth

  14. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Nelson

    Full Text Available A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together.We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a aggressive C. difficile testing; (b empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d contact precautions; (e improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1 base-case (BASE values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2 intervention (INT values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3 optimal (OPT values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile.INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  15. Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

    2015-04-01

    The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model

  16. Developing an Agent-Based Simulation System for Post-Earthquake Operations in Uncertainty Conditions: A Proposed Method for Collaboration among Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navid Hooshangi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent-based modeling is a promising approach for developing simulation tools for natural hazards in different areas, such as during urban search and rescue (USAR operations. The present study aimed to develop a dynamic agent-based simulation model in post-earthquake USAR operations using geospatial information system and multi agent systems (GIS and MASs, respectively. We also propose an approach for dynamic task allocation and establishing collaboration among agents based on contract net protocol (CNP and interval-based Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS methods, which consider uncertainty in natural hazards information during agents’ decision-making. The decision-making weights were calculated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP. In order to implement the system, earthquake environment was simulated and the damage of the buildings and a number of injuries were calculated in Tehran’s District 3: 23%, 37%, 24% and 16% of buildings were in slight, moderate, extensive and completely vulnerable classes, respectively. The number of injured persons was calculated to be 17,238. Numerical results in 27 scenarios showed that the proposed method is more accurate than the CNP method in the terms of USAR operational time (at least 13% decrease and the number of human fatalities (at least 9% decrease. In interval uncertainty analysis of our proposed simulated system, the lower and upper bounds of uncertain responses are evaluated. The overall results showed that considering uncertainty in task allocation can be a highly advantageous in the disaster environment. Such systems can be used to manage and prepare for natural hazards.

  17. Simulating Spatial Growth Patterns in Developing Countries: an Agent Based Modelling Approach. A Case of Shama in the Western Region of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inkoom, J. N.

    2011-12-01

    In Sub-Saharan Africa, rapid urban growth is characterized by prolific expansion of unplanned (informal) structures, and unguided spatial expansion. These unguided expansions by human agents have outstripped the regulatory capacities of Central and Local government. Governmental institutions in finding solutions to the unguided expansion in unplanned use of land have to call for the modelling of what influences the spatial decision and role of human agents in the growth of informal settlement. The objective of the study is to simulate spatial growth pattern of settlements in the Shama district using an agent based model. The study was conducted within a framework of NetLogo. The NetLogo assisted to incorporate and simulate driving forces that affect location decision-making by households and the growth of informal settlement. A survey was conducted to obtain household location decision preferences. The development of unplanned settlement has been a function of land price, proximity to economic centre's, household economic potential, and the location decision-making patterns of households. The exploratory analysis found particularly that majority of spontaneous development took place on areas liable to floods suggesting that some structures fall outside the required building regulations. The application of the proposed model indicates its potential to improve urban planning policies and decision-making processes in emerging cities of developing countries. Also, the result of the simulation suggests potential preferential location for residential development. The research justifies an approach in the area of simulating urban dynamics with agent-based models.

  18. The effects of residential real-time pricing contracts on transco loads, pricing, and profitability: Simulations using the N-ABLE trademark agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehlen, Mark A.; Scholand, Andrew J.; Stamber, Kevin L.

    2007-01-01

    An agent-based model is constructed in which a demand aggregator sells both uniform-price and real-time price (RTP) contracts to households as means for adding price elasticity in residential power use sectors, particularly during peak-price hours of the day. Simulations suggest that RTP contracts help a demand aggregator (1) shift its long-term contracts toward off-peak hours, thereby reducing its cost of power and (2) increase its short-run profits if it is one of the first aggregators to have large numbers of RTP contracts; but (3) create susceptibilities to short-term market demand and price volatilities. (author)

  19. Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

    2004-01-01

    ...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

  20. Experimental Evaluation of Suitability of Selected Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods for Large-Scale Agent-Based Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tučník, Petr; Bureš, Vladimír

    2016-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the-server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models.

  1. Real-Time Agent-Based Modeling Simulation with in-situ Visualization of Complex Biological Systems: A Case Study on Vocal Fold Inflammation and Healing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seekhao, Nuttiiya; Shung, Caroline; JaJa, Joseph; Mongeau, Luc; Li-Jessen, Nicole Y K

    2016-05-01

    We present an efficient and scalable scheme for implementing agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation with In Situ visualization of large complex systems on heterogeneous computing platforms. The scheme is designed to make optimal use of the resources available on a heterogeneous platform consisting of a multicore CPU and a GPU, resulting in minimal to no resource idle time. Furthermore, the scheme was implemented under a client-server paradigm that enables remote users to visualize and analyze simulation data as it is being generated at each time step of the model. Performance of a simulation case study of vocal fold inflammation and wound healing with 3.8 million agents shows 35× and 7× speedup in execution time over single-core and multi-core CPU respectively. Each iteration of the model took less than 200 ms to simulate, visualize and send the results to the client. This enables users to monitor the simulation in real-time and modify its course as needed.

  2. Modeling rational, psychological, and social behavior toward diffusion of new technology using agent-based simulation: the case of the public utility jeepney (PUJ) fleet in Metro Manila

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahanchian, Mohammad; Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel

    2017-01-01

    configuration affect diffusion of innovation. This study presents an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the rational decision-making, psychological behavior, and social interaction of people to explore their reaction to policy scenarios toward adopting technological changes over time. The aim of model......In most developing countries, over-aged vehicles play a significant role in energy demand and air pollution, which make the transportation sector a suitable choice for investigating opportunities to mitigate climate change. Apparently, people heterogeneity, social influence, and network...... is to assist policymakers for energy and environmental policy design based on consumers’ behavior. The jeepney owners in the old public utility jeepney (PUJ) fleet in Metro Manila are chosen as case study to prove the applicability of the model. The results show that rational, psychological, and social...

  3. Simulating the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department without being seen by a physician: a cellular automaton and agent-based framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milad Yousefi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop an agent based modeling (ABM framework to simulate the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department (ED without being seen (LWBS. In doing so, the study complements computer modeling and cellular automata (CA techniques to simulate the behavior of patients in an ED. After verifying and validating the model by comparing it with data from a real case study, the significance of four preventive policies including increasing number of triage nurses, fast-track treatment, increasing the waiting room capacity and reducing treatment time were investigated by utilizing ordinary least squares regression. After applying the preventing policies in ED, an average of 42.14% reduction in the number of patients who leave without being seen and 6.05% reduction in the average length of stay (LOS of patients was reported. This study is the first to apply CA in an ED simulation. Comparing the average LOS before and after applying CA with actual times from emergency department information system showed an 11% improvement. The simulation results indicated that the most effective approach to reduce the rate of LWBS is applying fast-track treatment. The ABM approach represents a flexible tool that can be constructed to reflect any given environment. It is also a support system for decision-makers to assess the relative impact of control strategies.

  4. Simulating the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department without being seen by a physician: a cellular automaton and agent-based framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Milad; Yousefi, Moslem; Fogliatto, F S; Ferreira, R P M; Kim, J H

    2018-01-11

    The objective of this study was to develop an agent based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate the behavior of patients who leave a public hospital emergency department (ED) without being seen (LWBS). In doing so, the study complements computer modeling and cellular automata (CA) techniques to simulate the behavior of patients in an ED. After verifying and validating the model by comparing it with data from a real case study, the significance of four preventive policies including increasing number of triage nurses, fast-track treatment, increasing the waiting room capacity and reducing treatment time were investigated by utilizing ordinary least squares regression. After applying the preventing policies in ED, an average of 42.14% reduction in the number of patients who leave without being seen and 6.05% reduction in the average length of stay (LOS) of patients was reported. This study is the first to apply CA in an ED simulation. Comparing the average LOS before and after applying CA with actual times from emergency department information system showed an 11% improvement. The simulation results indicated that the most effective approach to reduce the rate of LWBS is applying fast-track treatment. The ABM approach represents a flexible tool that can be constructed to reflect any given environment. It is also a support system for decision-makers to assess the relative impact of control strategies.

  5. ABS-SmartComAgri: An Agent-Based Simulator of Smart Communication Protocols in Wireless Sensor Networks for Debugging in Precision Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Magariño, Iván; Lacuesta, Raquel; Lloret, Jaime

    2018-03-27

    Smart communication protocols are becoming a key mechanism for improving communication performance in networks such as wireless sensor networks. However, the literature lacks mechanisms for simulating smart communication protocols in precision agriculture for decreasing production costs. In this context, the current work presents an agent-based simulator of smart communication protocols for efficiently managing pesticides. The simulator considers the needs of electric power, crop health, percentage of alive bugs and pesticide consumption. The current approach is illustrated with three different communication protocols respectively called (a) broadcast, (b) neighbor and (c) low-cost neighbor. The low-cost neighbor protocol obtained a statistically-significant reduction in the need of electric power over the neighbor protocol, with a very large difference according to the common interpretations about the Cohen's d effect size. The presented simulator is called ABS-SmartComAgri and is freely distributed as open-source from a public research data repository. It ensures the reproducibility of experiments and allows other researchers to extend the current approach.

  6. Designing Citizen Business Loan Model to Reduce Non-Performing Loan: An Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Approach in Regional Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moses L Singgih

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Citizen Business Loan (CBL constitutes a program poverty alleviation based on economic empowerment of small and medium enterprise. This study focuses on implementation of CBL at Regional Development Bank branch X. The problem is the existing of interdependencies between CBL’s implements (Bank and the uncertainty of debtor’s capability in returning the credit. The impact of this circumstance is non-performing loan (NPL becomes relatively high (22%. The ultimate objective is to minimize NPL by designing the model based on the agent that can represent the problem through a simulation using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS. The model is considered by managing the probability of the debtor to pay or not based on 5 C categories, they are: character, capacity, capital, condition, and collateral that inherent to each debtor. There are two improvement scenarios proposed in this model. The first scenario only involves the first category of debtor in simulation. The result of this scenario is NPL value as 0%. The second scenario includes the first and second of debtor’s category in simulation and resulting NPL value between 4.6% and 11.4%.

  7. Novel Role of Rural Official Organization in the Biomass-Based Power Supply Chain in China: A Combined Game Theory and Agent-Based Simulation Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiyan Luo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Developing biomass-based power generation is helpful for China to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and to release the targets of carbon emission peak. The decentralized farming method leads to Chinese farmers’ weak willingness to collect and sell crop residues to biomass-based power plants. The purpose of this paper is to solve the issue by proposing a novel biomass feedstock supply model with China’s rural official organization—villagers’ committee, which has great influence on villagers’ decision making. Introducing it into the biomass-based power supply chain is beneficial to motivating farmers’ supplying enthusiasm. A combined game theory and agent-based simulation approach is applied to study the effectiveness of this new supply model. Multiple simulation scenarios are built to study impacts of different simulation parameters, and results show that farmers tend to supply more biomass material for electricity production in the proposed villagers’ committee model, compared with the two conventional supply models, direct-deal and broker models. The supply model incorporating the rural official organization can ensure the feedstock sufficiency for plants. A proper model design depends on the feed-in tariff subsidy for biomass-based electricity, feedstock shipping distance, performance appraisal system of the villagers’ committee, as well as farmers’ utility weights on net income and public service improvement.

  8. Agent-based simulation of reactions in the crowded and structured intracellular environment: Influence of mobility and location of the reactants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lapin Alexei

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper we apply a novel agent-based simulation method in order to model intracellular reactions in detail. The simulations are performed within a virtual cytoskeleton enriched with further crowding elements, which allows the analysis of molecular crowding effects on intracellular diffusion and reaction rates. The cytoskeleton network leads to a reduction in the mobility of molecules. Molecules can also unspecifically bind to membranes or the cytoskeleton affecting (i the fraction of unbound molecules in the cytosol and (ii furthermore reducing the mobility. Binding of molecules to intracellular structures or scaffolds can in turn lead to a microcompartmentalization of the cell. Especially the formation of enzyme complexes promoting metabolic channeling, e.g. in glycolysis, depends on the co-localization of the proteins. Results While the co-localization of enzymes leads to faster reaction rates, the reduced mobility decreases the collision rate of reactants, hence reducing the reaction rate, as expected. This effect is most prominent in diffusion limited reactions. Furthermore, anomalous diffusion can occur due to molecular crowding in the cell. In the context of diffusion controlled reactions, anomalous diffusion leads to fractal reaction kinetics. The simulation framework is used to quantify and separate the effects originating from molecular crowding or the reduced mobility of the reactants. We were able to define three factors which describe the effective reaction rate, namely f diff for the diffusion effect, f volume for the crowding, and f access for the reduced accessibility of the molecules. Conclusions Molecule distributions, reaction rate constants and structural parameters can be adjusted separately in the simulation allowing a comprehensive study of individual effects in the context of a realistic cell environment. As such, the present simulation can help to bridge the gap between in vivo and in vitro

  9. Gaming, simulations and society research scope and perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Shiratori, R; Kato, F

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a current research scope and perspective of Simulation and Gaming.Theoretical problems of Simulation and Gaming will be examined with a view to improving the social sciences through the introduction of the techniques and concepts of Simulation and Gaming.The fields of economics, political science, psychology and business management can all be radically improved by introducing such techniques of Simulation and Gaming as the Agent-Based Modelling.Other important topics are the analysis of philosophical foundations in Simulation and Gaming as an academic discipline.The ever growing and massive popularity of PC and arcade games cannot be ignored.Their potential as agents of education and their essentially violent nature raise many ethical and moral problems that need to be addressed.

  10. Agent-Based Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Jędrzejowicz, Piotr; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents a collection of original research works by leading specialists focusing on novel and promising approaches in which the multi-agent system paradigm is used to support, enhance or replace traditional approaches to solving difficult optimization problems. The editors have invited several well-known specialists to present their solutions, tools, and models falling under the common denominator of the agent-based optimization. The book consists of eight chapters covering examples of application of the multi-agent paradigm and respective customized tools to solve  difficult optimization problems arising in different areas such as machine learning, scheduling, transportation and, more generally, distributed and cooperative problem solving.

  11. Agent-based modelling of cholera diffusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella; Doldersum, Tom; Useya, Juliana; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model for micro-scale cholera diffusion. The model simulates both an environmental reservoir of naturally occurring V.cholerae bacteria and hyperinfectious V. cholerae. Objective of the research is to test if runoff from open refuse

  12. Agent-based simulations of the influence of social policy and neighboring communication on the adoption of grid-connected photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, Tomoyuki

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Multi-agent systems coupled with an electric power flow analysis. • Influence of social policy and communication on the adoption of photovoltaics. • Strong intervention near a transformer drives the greatest PV adoption. • Strong intervention far from a transformer increases social costs. - Abstract: Agent-based simulations coupled with an analysis of the flow of electric power are carried out to examine the influence of the social policy of the government and the neighboring communication between customers on the adoption of distributed rooftop photovoltaic electrical power generators (PVs). How the relationships between the social policy and the possibility of a reverse current restriction give rise to the collective behavior of autonomous individuals, and how the end customers interact and form relationships with its environment are described. Strong intervention by the government in the areas near a main high-voltage power distribution transformer, where the possibility of a reverse current restriction is relatively low, drives the greatest adoption of the PV system. The near areas are primarily occupied by customers with only a PV to improve the diffusion rate of PVs via the self-organization by the communication between customers. It also lead in a decrease in the need for compensation devices, which in turn minimizes the social cost. Growth in the number of PVs in areas far from the transformer is assisted by the installation of batteries as compensation for the lost opportunity due to restrictions in those areas on reverse power currents. Therefore, excessive intervention by the government in the far areas results in an increase in the social cost of managing reverse currents

  13. An agent-based simulation of persistent inequalities in health behavior: Understanding the interdependent roles of segregation, clustering, and social influence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brent A. Langellier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Health inequalities are conspicuously persistent through time and often durable even in spite of interventions. In this study, I use agent-based simulation models (ABMs to understand how the complex interrelationships between residential segregation, social network formation, group-level preferences, and social influence may contribute to this persistence. I use a more-stylized ABM, Bubblegum Village (BV, to understand how initial inequalities in bubblegum-chewing behaviors either endure, increase, or decrease over time given group-level differences in preferences, neighborhood-level barriers or facilitators of bubblegum chewing (e.g., access to bubblegum shops, and agents’ preferences for segregation, homophily, and clustering (i.e., the ‘tightness’ of social networks. I further use BV to understand whether segregation and social network characteristics impact whether the effects of a bubblegum-reduction intervention that is very effective in the short term are durable over time, as well as to identify intervention strategies to reduce attenuation of the intervention effects. In addition to BV, I also present results from an ABM based on the distribution and social characteristics of the population in Philadelphia, PA. This model explores similar questions to BV, but examines racial/ethnic inequalities in soda consumption based on agents’ social characteristics and baseline soda consumption probabilities informed by the 2007–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Collectively, the models suggest that residential segregation is a fundamental process for the production and persistence of health inequalities. The other major conclusion of the study is that, for behaviors that are subject to social influence and that cluster within social groups, interventions that are randomly-targeted to individuals with ‘bad’ behaviors will likely experience a large degree of recidivism to pre-intervention behaviors. In contrast

  14. An agent-based simulation of persistent inequalities in health behavior: Understanding the interdependent roles of segregation, clustering, and social influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langellier, Brent A

    2016-12-01

    Health inequalities are conspicuously persistent through time and often durable even in spite of interventions. In this study, I use agent-based simulation models (ABMs) to understand how the complex interrelationships between residential segregation, social network formation, group-level preferences, and social influence may contribute to this persistence. I use a more-stylized ABM, Bubblegum Village (BV), to understand how initial inequalities in bubblegum-chewing behaviors either endure, increase, or decrease over time given group-level differences in preferences, neighborhood-level barriers or facilitators of bubblegum chewing (e.g., access to bubblegum shops), and agents' preferences for segregation, homophily, and clustering (i.e., the 'tightness' of social networks). I further use BV to understand whether segregation and social network characteristics impact whether the effects of a bubblegum-reduction intervention that is very effective in the short term are durable over time, as well as to identify intervention strategies to reduce attenuation of the intervention effects. In addition to BV, I also present results from an ABM based on the distribution and social characteristics of the population in Philadelphia, PA. This model explores similar questions to BV, but examines racial/ethnic inequalities in soda consumption based on agents' social characteristics and baseline soda consumption probabilities informed by the 2007-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Collectively, the models suggest that residential segregation is a fundamental process for the production and persistence of health inequalities. The other major conclusion of the study is that, for behaviors that are subject to social influence and that cluster within social groups, interventions that are randomly-targeted to individuals with 'bad' behaviors will likely experience a large degree of recidivism to pre-intervention behaviors. In contrast, interventions that target

  15. Exploring the use of automated vehicles as last mile connection of train trips through an agent-based simulation model: An application to Delft, Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Scheltes

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The last mile in a public transport trip is known to bring a large disutility for passengers, because the conventional transport modes for this stage of the trip can, in many cases, be rather slow, inflexible and not provide a seamless experience to passengers. Fully automated vehicles (AVs, that is, those which do not need a driver, could act as a first mile/last mile connection to mass public transport modes. In this paper, we study a system that we call Automated Last-Mile Transport (ALMT, which consists of a fleet of small, fully automated, electric vehicles to improve the last mile performance of a trip done in a train. An agent-based simulation model was proposed for the ALMT whereby a dispatching algorithm distributes travel requests amongst the available vehicles using a FIFO sequence and selects a vehicle based on a set of specified control conditions (e.g. travel time to reach a requesting passenger. The model was applied to the case-study of the connection between the train station Delft Zuid and the Technological Innovation Campus (Delft, The Netherlands in order to test the methodology and understand the performance of the system in function of several operational parameters and demand scenarios. The most important conclusion from the baseline scenario was that the ALMT system was only able to compete with the walking mode and that additional measures were needed to increase the performance of the ALMT system in order to be competitive with cycling. Relocating empty vehicles or allowing pre-booking of vehicles led to a significant reduction in average waiting time, whilst allowing passengers to drive at a higher speed led to a large reduction in average travel time, whilst simultaneously reducing system capacity as energy use is increased.

  16. Simulating political stability and change in the Netherlands (1998-2002). An agent-based model of party competition with media effects empirically tested.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, J.C.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based models of political party competition in a multidimensional policy space have been developed in order to reflect adaptive learning by party leaders with very limited information feedback. The key assumption is that two categories of actors continually make decisions: voters choose which

  17. Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

    2016-06-01

    Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

  18. Improving Agent Based Modeling of Critical Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Till

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent Based Modeling (ABM is a powerful method that has been used to simulate potential critical incidents in the infrastructure and built environments. This paper will discuss the modeling of some critical incidents currently simulated using ABM and how they may be expanded and improved by using better physiological modeling, psychological modeling, modeling the actions of interveners, introducing Geographic Information Systems (GIS and open source models.

  19. GIS and agent based spatial-temporal simulation modeling for assessing tourism social carrying capacity: a study on Mount Emei scenic area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Renjun

    2007-06-01

    Each scenic area can sustain a specific level of acceptance of tourist development and use, beyond which further development can result in socio-cultural deterioration or a decline in the quality of the experience gained by visitors. This specific level is called carrying capacity. Social carrying capacity can be defined as the maximum level of use (in terms of numbers and activities) that can be absorbed by an area without an unacceptable decline in the quality of experience of visitors and without an unacceptable adverse impact on the society of the area. It is difficult to assess the carrying capacity, because the carrying capacity is determined by not only the number of visitors, but also the time, the type of the recreation, the characters of each individual and the physical environment. The objective of this study is to build a spatial-temporal simulation model to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. This model is a tourist spatial behaviors simulator (TSBS). Based on TSBS, the changes of each visitor's travel patterns such as location, cost, and other states data are recoded in a state table. By analyzing this table, the intensity of the tourist use in any area can be calculated; the changes of the quality of tourism experience can be quantized and analyzed. So based on this micro simulation method the social carrying capacity can be assessed more accurately, can be monitored proactively and managed adaptively. In this paper, the carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area is analyzed as followed: The author selected the intensity of the crowd as the monitoring Indicators. it is regarded that longer waiting time means more crowded. TSBS was used to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. the average of waiting time all the visitors is calculated. And then the author assessed the social carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area, found the key factors have impacted on social carrying capacity. The results show that the TSBS

  20. Agent-Based Modeling in Systems Pharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, J; Butler, J; Alden, K; Read, M; Kumar, V; Cucurull-Sanchez, L; Timmis, J; Coles, M

    2015-11-01

    Modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques provide a platform for knowledge integration and hypothesis testing to gain insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an M&S technique that focuses on describing individual components rather than homogenous populations. This tutorial introduces ABM to systems pharmacologists, using relevant case studies to highlight how ABM-specific strengths have yielded success in the area of preclinical mechanistic modeling.

  1. Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, J. S.

    2004-12-01

    Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in

  2. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)

    2008-12-15

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  3. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  4. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  5. Agent-Based Collaborative Traffic Flow Management, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose agent-based game-theoretic approaches for simulation of strategies involved in multi-objective collaborative traffic flow management (CTFM). Intelligent...

  6. Exploring Intra-Urban Accessibility and Impacts of Pollution Policies with an Agent-Based Simulation Platform: GaMiroD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Fosset

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we address the issue of sustainable cities by focusing on one of their very central components: daily mobility. Indeed, if cities can be interpreted as spatial organizations allowing social interactions, the number of daily movements needed to reach this goal is continuously increasing. Therefore, improving urban accessibility merely results in increasing traffic and its negative externalities (congestion, accidents, pollution, noise, etc., while eventually reducing the quality of life of people in the city. This is why several urban-transport policies are implemented in order to reduce individual mobility impacts while maintaining equitable access to the city. This challenge is however non-trivial and therefore we propose to investigate this issue from the complex systems point of view. The real spatial-temporal urban accessibility of citizens cannot be approximated just by focusing on space and implies taking into account the space-time activity patterns of individuals, in a more dynamic way. Thus, given the importance of local interactions in such a perspective, an agent based approach seems to be a relevant solution. This kind of individual based and “interactionist” approach allows us to explore the possible impact of individual behaviors on the overall dynamics of the city but also the possible impact of global measures on individual behaviors. In this paper, we give an overview of the Miro Project and then focus on the GaMiroD model design from real data analysis to model exploration tuned by transportation-oriented scenarios. Among them, we start with the the impact of a LEZ (Low Emission Zone in the city center.

  7. The Logic of the Method of Agent-Based Simulation in the Social Sciences: Empirical and Intentional Adequacy of Computer Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno David; Jaime Simão Sichman; Helder Coelho

    2005-01-01

    WOS:000235217900009 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science) The classical theory of computation does not represent an adequate model of reality for simulation in the social sciences. The aim of this paper is to construct a methodological perspective that is able to conciliate the formal and empirical logic of program verification in computer science, with the interpretative and multiparadigmatic logic of the social sciences. We attempt to evaluate whether social simulation implies an additional pers...

  8. The Dynamic Optimization of the Departure Times of Metro Users during Rush Hour in an Agent-Based Simulation: A Case Study in Shenzhen, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuliang Xi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available As serious traffic problems have increased throughout the world, various types of studies, especially traffic simulations, have been conducted to investigate this issue. Activity-based traffic simulation models, such as MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation, are intended to identify optimal combinations of activities in time and space. It is also necessary to examine commuting-based traffic simulations. Such simulations focus on optimizing travel times by adjusting departure times, travel modes or travel routes to present travel suggestions to the public. This paper examines the optimal departure times of metro users during rush hour using a newly developed simulation tool. A strategy for identifying relatively optimal departure times is identified. This study examines 103,637 person agents (passengers in Shenzhen, China, and reports their average departure time, travel time and travel utility, as well as the numbers of person agents who are late and miss metro trips in every iteration. The results demonstrate that as the number of iterations increases, the average travel time of these person agents decreases by approximately 4 min. Moreover, the latest average departure time with no risk of being late when going to work is approximately 8:04, and the earliest average departure time with no risk of missing metro trips when getting off work is approximately 17:50.

  9. Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

    The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

  10. Study of photo-oxidative reactivity of sunscreening agents based on photo-oxidation of uric acid by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradmand Jalali, Hamed; Bashiri, Hadis; Rasa, Hossein

    2015-05-01

    In the present study, the mechanism of free radical production by light-reflective agents in sunscreens (TiO2, ZnO and ZrO2) was obtained by applying kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The values of the rate constants for each step of the suggested mechanism have been obtained by simulation. The effect of the initial concentration of mineral oxides and uric acid on the rate of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of some sun care agents has been studied. The kinetic Monte Carlo simulation results agree qualitatively with the existing experimental data for the production of free radicals by sun care agents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Study of photo-oxidative reactivity of sunscreening agents based on photo-oxidation of uric acid by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moradmand Jalali, Hamed; Bashiri, Hadis; Rasa, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, the mechanism of free radical production by light-reflective agents in sunscreens (TiO 2 , ZnO and ZrO 2 ) was obtained by applying kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The values of the rate constants for each step of the suggested mechanism have been obtained by simulation. The effect of the initial concentration of mineral oxides and uric acid on the rate of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of some sun care agents has been studied. The kinetic Monte Carlo simulation results agree qualitatively with the existing experimental data for the production of free radicals by sun care agents. - Highlights: • The mechanism and kinetics of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of sun care agents has been obtained by simulation. • The mechanism has been used for free radical production of TiO 2 (rutile and anatase), ZnO and ZrO 2 . • The ratios of photo-activity of ZnO to anastase, rutile and ZrO have been obtained. • By doubling the initial concentrations of mineral oxide, the rate of reaction was doubled. • The optimum ratio of initial concentration of mineral oxides to uric acid has been obtained

  12. Study of photo-oxidative reactivity of sunscreening agents based on photo-oxidation of uric acid by kinetic Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moradmand Jalali, Hamed; Bashiri, Hadis, E-mail: hbashiri@kashanu.ac.ir; Rasa, Hossein

    2015-05-01

    In the present study, the mechanism of free radical production by light-reflective agents in sunscreens (TiO{sub 2}, ZnO and ZrO{sub 2}) was obtained by applying kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The values of the rate constants for each step of the suggested mechanism have been obtained by simulation. The effect of the initial concentration of mineral oxides and uric acid on the rate of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of some sun care agents has been studied. The kinetic Monte Carlo simulation results agree qualitatively with the existing experimental data for the production of free radicals by sun care agents. - Highlights: • The mechanism and kinetics of uric acid photo-oxidation by irradiation of sun care agents has been obtained by simulation. • The mechanism has been used for free radical production of TiO{sub 2} (rutile and anatase), ZnO and ZrO{sub 2}. • The ratios of photo-activity of ZnO to anastase, rutile and ZrO have been obtained. • By doubling the initial concentrations of mineral oxide, the rate of reaction was doubled. • The optimum ratio of initial concentration of mineral oxides to uric acid has been obtained.

  13. Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tingting; Cheng, Zhengguo; Zhang, Le

    2017-01-01

    Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency. PMID:29194393

  14. Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency.

  15. Agent Based Individual Traffic guidance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wanscher, Jørgen Bundgaard

    2004-01-01

    When working with traffic planning or guidance it is common practice to view the vehicles as a combined mass. >From this models are employed to specify the vehicle supply and demand for each region. As the models are complex and the calculations are equally demanding the regions and the detail...... of the road network is aggregated. As a result the calculations reveal only what the mass of vehicles are doing and not what a single vehicle is doing. This is the crucial difference to ABIT (Agent Based Individual Trafficguidance). ABIT is based on the fact that information on the destination of each vehicle...

  16. Development of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to Simulate the Immune System and Integration of a Regression Method to Estimate the Key ABM Parameters by Fitting the Experimental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xuming; Chen, Jinghang; Miao, Hongyu; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Le

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) and differential equations (DE) are two commonly used methods for immune system simulation. However, it is difficult for ABM to estimate key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data, whereas the differential equation model is incapable of describing the complicated immune system in detail. To overcome these problems, we developed an integrated ABM regression model (IABMR). It can combine the advantages of ABM and DE by employing ABM to mimic the multi-scale immune system with various phenotypes and types of cells as well as using the input and output of ABM to build up the Loess regression for key parameter estimation. Next, we employed the greedy algorithm to estimate the key parameters of the ABM with respect to the same experimental data set and used ABM to describe a 3D immune system similar to previous studies that employed the DE model. These results indicate that IABMR not only has the potential to simulate the immune system at various scales, phenotypes and cell types, but can also accurately infer the key parameters like DE model. Therefore, this study innovatively developed a complex system development mechanism that could simulate the complicated immune system in detail like ABM and validate the reliability and efficiency of model like DE by fitting the experimental data. PMID:26535589

  17. Agent Based Modeling as an Educational Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, J. H.; Johnson, R.; Castillo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Motivation is a key element in high school education. One way to improve motivation and provide content, while helping address critical thinking and problem solving skills, is to have students build and study agent based models in the classroom. This activity visually connects concepts with their applied mathematical representation. "Engaging students in constructing models may provide a bridge between frequently disconnected conceptual and mathematical forms of knowledge." (Levy and Wilensky, 2011) We wanted to discover the feasibility of implementing a model based curriculum in the classroom given current and anticipated core and content standards.; Simulation using California GIS data ; Simulation of high school student lunch popularity using aerial photograph on top of terrain value map.

  18. Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to study the essence of agent-based modeling, defining its features and prospects of usage in the modeling of socio-economic development of territories and systematization of domestic and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. Information basis for the research comprised the works on agent-based modeling by Russian and foreign scholars, especially articles and monographs of scientists of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, papers presented in an international journal The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation and other sources available on the Internet. The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations of agent-based models of territories. The author considers the concepts of “agent-based modeling” and “agent” and defines specifics of agent-based models in comparison with other types of simulation modeling. The paper also describes major stages of building agent-based models for territories and considers qualification requirements to a modeling subject. Furthermore, it reviews Russian and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. It has been determined that most of them deal with the modeling of spatial, territorial and socio-economic development of regions, cities and municipal entities. Agents in such models are presented by households, residents of regions and cities, enterprises and organizations operating in their territory, and public administration authorities (their inclusion in the model makes it possible to test different options of management impacts on territories by changing the model parameters, for instance, the introduction of certain prohibitions and quotas, issuance of permits, distribution of financial resources, etc.. At the end of the paper, the author formulates major conclusions. He shows the complexity faced

  19. Agent-based modelling in synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorochowski, Thomas E

    2016-11-30

    Biological systems exhibit complex behaviours that emerge at many different levels of organization. These span the regulation of gene expression within single cells to the use of quorum sensing to co-ordinate the action of entire bacterial colonies. Synthetic biology aims to make the engineering of biology easier, offering an opportunity to control natural systems and develop new synthetic systems with useful prescribed behaviours. However, in many cases, it is not understood how individual cells should be programmed to ensure the emergence of a required collective behaviour. Agent-based modelling aims to tackle this problem, offering a framework in which to simulate such systems and explore cellular design rules. In this article, I review the use of agent-based models in synthetic biology, outline the available computational tools, and provide details on recently engineered biological systems that are amenable to this approach. I further highlight the challenges facing this methodology and some of the potential future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  1. Genetic Algorithms for Agent-Based Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May Permann

    2007-03-01

    Today’s society relies greatly upon an array of complex national and international infrastructure networks such as transportation, electric power, telecommunication, and financial networks. This paper describes initial research combining agent-based infrastructure modeling software and genetic algorithms (GAs) to help optimize infrastructure protection and restoration decisions. This research proposes to apply GAs to the problem of infrastructure modeling and analysis in order to determine the optimum assets to restore or protect from attack or other disaster. This research is just commencing and therefore the focus of this paper is the integration of a GA optimization method with a simulation through the simulation’s agents.

  2. Agent-Based Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Tourism Researchers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nicholls, Sarah; Amelung, B.; Student, Jillian

    2017-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the

  3. Structuring Qualitative Data for Agent-Based Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghorbani, Amineh; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Schrauwen, Noortje

    2015-01-01

    Using ethnography to build agent-based models may result in more empirically grounded simulations. Our study on innovation practice and culture in the Westland horticulture sector served to explore what information and data from ethnographic analysis could be used in models and how. MAIA, a

  4. An agent-based model for diffusion of electric vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kangur, Ayla; Jager, Wander; Verbrugge, Rineke; Bockarjova, Marija

    2017-01-01

    The transition from fuel cars to electric cars is a large-scale process involving many interactions between consumers and other stakeholders over decades. To explore how policies may interact with consumer behavior over such a long time period, we developed an agent-based social simulation model. In

  5. Agent-based Modeling Methodology for Analyzing Weapons Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    technique involve model structure, system representation and the degree of validity, coupled with the simplicity, of the overall model. ABM is best suited... system representation of the air combat system . We feel that a simulation model that combines ABM with equation-based representation of weapons and...AGENT-BASED MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING WEAPONS SYSTEMS THESIS Casey D. Connors, Major, USA

  6. An agent-based architecture for multimodal interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    In this paper, an executable generic process model is proposed for combined verbal and non-verbal communication processes and their interaction. The agent-based architecture can be used to create multimodal interaction. The generic process model has been designed, implemented and used to simulate

  7. An agent-based architecture for multimodal interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, an executable generic process model is proposed for combined verbal and non-verbal communication processes and their interaction. The agent-based architecture can be used to create multimodal interaction. The generic process model has been designed, implemented and used to simulate

  8. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  9. A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

    2008-11-21

    Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

  10. Agent Based Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2012-01-01

    to launch the MFM Workbench into an agent based environment, which can complement disadvantages of the original software. The agent-based MFM Workbench is centered on a concept called “Blackboard System” and use an event based mechanism to arrange the reasoning tasks. This design will support the new...

  11. Participatory Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Northern Mountains of Vietnam: the Combined Use of an Agent-Based Model, a Role-Playing Game, and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Christophe Castella

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In Vietnam, the remarkable economic growth that resulted from the doi moi (renovation reforms was based largely on the rural households that had become the new basic unit of agricultural production in the early 1990s. The technical, economic, and social changes that accompanied the decollectivization process transformed agricultural production, resource management, land use, and the institutions that defined access to resources and their distribution. Combined with the extreme biophysical, technical, and social heterogeneity encountered in the northern mountains, these rapid changes led to the extreme complexity of the agrarian dynamics that today challenges traditional diagnostic approaches. Since 1999, a participatory simulation method has been developed to disentangle the cause-and-effect relationships between the different driving forces and changes in land use observed at different scales. Several tools were combined to understand the interactions between human and natural systems, including a narrative conceptual model, an agent-based spatial computational model (ABM, a role-playing game, and a multiscale geographic information system (GIS. We synthesized into an ABM named SAMBA-GIS the knowledge generated from the above tools applied to a representative sample of research sites. The model takes explicitly into account the dynamic interactions among: (1 farmers' strategies, i.e., the individual decision-making process as a function of the farm's resource profile; (2 the institutions that define resource access and usage; and (3 changes in the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. The next step consisted of coupling the ABM with the GIS to extrapolate the application of local management rules to a whole landscape. Simulations are initialized using the layers of the GIS, e.g., land use in 1990, accessibility, soil characteristics, etc., and statistics available at the village level, e.g., population, ethnicity, livestock, etc. At each

  12. Agent-Based Approach for Modelling the Labour Migration from China to Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the process of labour migration from China to Russia and shows its modelling using the agent-based approach. This approach allows us to simulate an artificial society in a computer program taking into account the diversity of individuals under consideration, as well as to model a set of laws and rules of conduct that make up the institutional environment in which the members of this society live. A brief review and analysis of agent-based migration models presented in the foreign literature are given. The agent-based model of labour migration from China to Russia developed by the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences simulates human behaviour close to reality, which is based on their internal purposes, determining the agents choice of territory as a place of residence. Therefore, at the development of the agents of the model and their behaviour algorithms, as well as the organization of the environment in which they exist and interact, the main characteristics of the population of two neighbouring countries and their demographic processes have been considered. Using the model, two experiments have been conducted. The purpose of the first of them was to assess the effect of depreciation of the rubble against the yuan on the overall indexes of labour migration, as well as its structure. In the second experiment, the procedure of the search of the information by agents for the migratory decision-making was changing. Namely, all generalizing information on the average salary by types of activity and skill level of employees, both in China and Russia, became available to all agents irrespective of their qualification level.

  13. Proceedings of the 19. Canadian Nuclear Society simulation symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marleau, G.

    1995-01-01

    A majority of the 31 papers in this symposium on nuclear simulation deal with CANDU reactors. The sessions were organized according to the following subjects: reactor physics, hydrogen behaviour, thermalhydraulics, reactor safety and operation. The individual papers have been abstracted separately

  14. Agent-based modeling of sustainable behaviors

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez-Maroño, Noelia; Fontenla-Romero, Oscar; Polhill, J; Craig, Tony; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan

    2017-01-01

    Using the O.D.D. (Overview, Design concepts, Detail) protocol, this title explores the role of agent-based modeling in predicting the feasibility of various approaches to sustainability. The chapters incorporated in this volume consist of real case studies to illustrate the utility of agent-based modeling and complexity theory in discovering a path to more efficient and sustainable lifestyles. The topics covered within include: households' attitudes toward recycling, designing decision trees for representing sustainable behaviors, negotiation-based parking allocation, auction-based traffic signal control, and others. This selection of papers will be of interest to social scientists who wish to learn more about agent-based modeling as well as experts in the field of agent-based modeling.

  15. Validation of Agent Based Distillation Movement Algorithms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gill, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Agent based distillations (ABD) are low-resolution abstract models, which can be used to explore questions associated with land combat operations in a short period of time Movement of agents within the EINSTein and MANA ABDs...

  16. Three essays in agent-based macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Canzian, Giulia

    2009-01-01

    The dissertation is aimed at offering an insight into the agent-based methodology and its possible application to the macroeconomic analysis. Relying on this methodology, I deal with three different issues concerning heterogeneity of economic agents, bounded rationality and interaction. Specifically, the first chapter is devoted to describe the distinctive characteristics of agent-based economics and its advantages-disadvantages. In the second chapter I propose a credit market framework c...

  17. Dissemination of Cultural Norms and Values: Agent-Based Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Andreevich Degterev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article shows how agent-based modeling allows us to explore the mechanisms of the dissemination of cultural norms and values both within one country and in the whole world. In recent years, this type of simulation is particularly prevalent in the analysis of international relations, becoming more popular than the system dynamics and discrete event simulation. The use of agent-based modeling in the analysis of international relations is connected with the agent-structure problem in international relations. Structure and agents act as interdependent and dynamically changing in the process of interaction between entities. Agent-structure interaction could be modeled by means of the theory of complex adaptive systems with the use of agent-based modeling techniques. One of the first examples of the use of agent-based modeling in political science is a model of racial segregation T. Shellinga. On the basis of this model, the author shows how the change in behavioral patterns at micro-level impacts on the macro-level. Patterns are changing due to the dynamics of cultural norms and values, formed by mass-media and other social institutes. The author shows the main areas of modern application of agent-based modeling in international studies including the analysis of ethnic conflicts, the formation of international coalitions. Particular attention is paid to Robert Axelrod approach based on the use of genetic algorithms to the spread of cultural norms and values. Agent-based modeling shows how to how to create such conditions that the norms that originally are not shared by a significant part of the population, eventually spread everywhere. Practical application of these algorithms is shown by the author of the article on the example of the situation in Ukraine in 2015-2016. The article also reveals the mechanisms of international spread of cultural norms and values. The main think-tanks using agent-based modeling in international studies are

  18. A technology path to tactical agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.

    2017-05-01

    Wargaming is a process of thinking through and visualizing events that could occur during a possible course of action. Over the past 200 years, wargaming has matured into a set of formalized processes. One area of growing interest is the application of agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling and its additional supporting technologies has potential to introduce a third-generation wargaming capability to the Army, creating a positive overmatch decision-making capability. In its simplest form, agent-based modeling is a computational technique that helps the modeler understand and simulate how the "whole of a system" responds to change over time. It provides a decentralized method of looking at situations where individual agents are instantiated within an environment, interact with each other, and empowered to make their own decisions. However, this technology is not without its own risks and limitations. This paper explores a technology roadmap, identifying research topics that could realize agent-based modeling within a tactical wargaming context.

  19. Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

    2012-08-01

    Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

  20. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  1. Agent based modeling of energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new approach for energy network modeling is designed and tested. • The agent-based approach is general and no technology dependent. • The models can be easily extended. • The range of applications encompasses from small to large energy infrastructures. - Abstract: Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed

  2. Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice-versa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron

    Full Text Available Agent-based models (ABM are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not.Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks and analytic calculations (for a complete graph we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature.This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.

  3. New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

  4. Agent-based modeling and network dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Namatame, Akira

    2016-01-01

    The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...

  5. Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

    2016-12-01

    Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Agent-based distributed hierarchical control of dc microgrid systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Lexuan; Vasquez, Juan Carlos; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    In order to enable distributed control and management for microgrids, this paper explores the application of information consensus and local decisionmaking methods formulating an agent based distributed hierarchical control system. A droop controlled paralleled DC/DC converter system is taken as ....... Standard genetic algorithm is applied in each local control system in order to search for a global optimum. Hardware-in-Loop simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.......In order to enable distributed control and management for microgrids, this paper explores the application of information consensus and local decisionmaking methods formulating an agent based distributed hierarchical control system. A droop controlled paralleled DC/DC converter system is taken...... as a case study. The objective is to enhance the system efficiency by finding the optimal sharing ratio of load current. Virtual resistances in local control systems are taken as decision variables. Consensus algorithms are applied for global information discovery and local control systems coordination...

  7. Agent-Based Modeling for Testing and Designing Novel Decentralized Command and Control System Paradigms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bonabeau, Eric; Hunt, Carl W; Gaudiano, Paolo

    2003-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a recent simulation modeling technique that consists of modeling a system from the bottom up, capturing the interactions taking place between the system's constituent units...

  8. An Evolutionary, Agent-Based Model to Aid in Computer Intrusion Detection and Prevention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shargel, Ben; Bonabeau, Eric; Budynek, Julien; Gaudiano, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a realistic agent-based simulation model of hacker behavior. In the model, hacker scripts are generated using a simple but powerful hacker grammar that has the potential to cover all possible hacker scripts...

  9. Stability of subsystem solutions in agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    The fact that relatively simple entities, such as particles or neurons, or even ants or bees or humans, give rise to fascinatingly complex behaviour when interacting in large numbers is the hallmark of complex systems science. Agent-based models are frequently employed for modelling and obtaining a predictive understanding of complex systems. Since the sheer number of equations that describe the behaviour of an entire agent-based model often makes it impossible to solve such models exactly, Monte Carlo simulation methods must be used for the analysis. However, unlike pairwise interactions among particles that typically govern solid-state physics systems, interactions among agents that describe systems in biology, sociology or the humanities often involve group interactions, and they also involve a larger number of possible states even for the most simplified description of reality. This begets the question: when can we be certain that an observed simulation outcome of an agent-based model is actually stable and valid in the large system-size limit? The latter is key for the correct determination of phase transitions between different stable solutions, and for the understanding of the underlying microscopic processes that led to these phase transitions. We show that a satisfactory answer can only be obtained by means of a complete stability analysis of subsystem solutions. A subsystem solution can be formed by any subset of all possible agent states. The winner between two subsystem solutions can be determined by the average moving direction of the invasion front that separates them, yet it is crucial that the competing subsystem solutions are characterised by a proper composition and spatiotemporal structure before the competition starts. We use the spatial public goods game with diverse tolerance as an example, but the approach has relevance for a wide variety of agent-based models.

  10. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2007-03-15

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

  11. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  12. Agent-based models of financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  13. Turning green: Agent-based modeling of the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowalska-Pyzalska, Anna; Maciejowska, Katarzyna; Suszczyński, Karol; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach we study the temporal dynamics of consumer opinions regarding switching to dynamic electricity tariffs and the actual decisions to switch. We assume that the decision to switch is based on the unanimity of τ past opinions. The resulting model offers a hypothetical, yet plausible explanation of why there is such a big discrepancy between consumer opinions, as measured by market surveys, and the actual participation in pilot programs and the adoption of dynamic tariffs. We argue that due to the high indifference level in today's retail electricity markets, customer opinions are very unstable and change frequently. The conducted simulation study shows that reducing the indifference level can result in narrowing the intention–behavior gap. A similar effect can be achieved by decreasing the decision time that a consumer takes to make a decision. - Highlights: • We propose an agent-based model to study the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs. • The decision to change the tariff is based on the unanimity of τ past opinions. • The model explains why the empirically observed intention–behavior gap exists. • The adoption of dynamic tariffs is impossible due to the high level of indifference in today's societies. • Reducing the indifference level or decreasing the decision time can result in narrowing the gap

  14. Identification of walking human model using agent-based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabpoor, Erfan; Pavic, Aleksandar; Racic, Vitomir

    2018-03-01

    The interaction of walking people with large vibrating structures, such as footbridges and floors, in the vertical direction is an important yet challenging phenomenon to describe mathematically. Several different models have been proposed in the literature to simulate interaction of stationary people with vibrating structures. However, the research on moving (walking) human models, explicitly identified for vibration serviceability assessment of civil structures, is still sparse. In this study, the results of a comprehensive set of FRF-based modal tests were used, in which, over a hundred test subjects walked in different group sizes and walking patterns on a test structure. An agent-based model was used to simulate discrete traffic-structure interactions. The occupied structure modal parameters found in tests were used to identify the parameters of the walking individual's single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) mass-spring-damper model using 'reverse engineering' methodology. The analysis of the results suggested that the normal distribution with the average of μ = 2.85Hz and standard deviation of σ = 0.34Hz can describe human SDOF model natural frequency. Similarly, the normal distribution with μ = 0.295 and σ = 0.047 can describe the human model damping ratio. Compared to the previous studies, the agent-based modelling methodology proposed in this paper offers significant flexibility in simulating multi-pedestrian walking traffics, external forces and simulating different mechanisms of human-structure and human-environment interaction at the same time.

  15. Agent-Based Data Integration Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Faber

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combining data from diverse, heterogeneous sources while facilitating a unified access to it is an important (albeit difficult task. There are various possibilities of performing it. In this publication, we propose and describe an agent-based framework dedicated to acquiring and processing distributed, heterogeneous data collected from diverse sources (e.g., the Internet, external software, relational, and document databases. Using this multi-agent-based approach in the aspects of the general architecture (the organization and management of the framework, we create a proof-of-concept implementation. The approach is presented using a sample scenario in which the system is used to search for personal and professional profiles of scientists.

  16. Agent-Based Computing: Promise and Perils

    OpenAIRE

    Jennings, N. R.

    1999-01-01

    Agent-based computing represents an exciting new synthesis both for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, more genrally, Computer Science. It has the potential to significantly improve the theory and practice of modelling, designing and implementing complex systems. Yet, to date, there has been little systematic analysis of what makes an agent such an appealing and powerful conceptual model. Moreover, even less effort has been devoted to exploring the inherent disadvantages that stem from adoptin...

  17. Assurance in Agent-Based Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilliom, Laura R.; Goldsmith, Steven Y.

    1999-05-10

    Our vision of the future of information systems is one that includes engineered collectives of software agents which are situated in an environment over years and which increasingly improve the performance of the overall system of which they are a part. At a minimum, the movement of agent and multi-agent technology into National Security applications, including their use in information assurance, is apparent today. The use of deliberative, autonomous agents in high-consequence/high-security applications will require a commensurate level of protection and confidence in the predictability of system-level behavior. At Sandia National Laboratories, we have defined and are addressing a research agenda that integrates the surety (safety, security, and reliability) into agent-based systems at a deep level. Surety is addressed at multiple levels: The integrity of individual agents must be protected by addressing potential failure modes and vulnerabilities to malevolent threats. Providing for the surety of the collective requires attention to communications surety issues and mechanisms for identifying and working with trusted collaborators. At the highest level, using agent-based collectives within a large-scale distributed system requires the development of principled design methods to deliver the desired emergent performance or surety characteristics. This position paper will outline the research directions underway at Sandia, will discuss relevant work being performed elsewhere, and will report progress to date toward assurance in agent-based systems.

  18. Assurance in Agent-Based Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilliom, Laura R.; Goldsmith, Steven Y.

    1999-01-01

    Our vision of the future of information systems is one that includes engineered collectives of software agents which are situated in an environment over years and which increasingly improve the performance of the overall system of which they are a part. At a minimum, the movement of agent and multi-agent technology into National Security applications, including their use in information assurance, is apparent today. The use of deliberative, autonomous agents in high-consequence/high-security applications will require a commensurate level of protection and confidence in the predictability of system-level behavior. At Sandia National Laboratories, we have defined and are addressing a research agenda that integrates the surety (safety, security, and reliability) into agent-based systems at a deep level. Surety is addressed at multiple levels: The integrity of individual agents must be protected by addressing potential failure modes and vulnerabilities to malevolent threats. Providing for the surety of the collective requires attention to communications surety issues and mechanisms for identifying and working with trusted collaborators. At the highest level, using agent-based collectives within a large-scale distributed system requires the development of principled design methods to deliver the desired emergent performance or surety characteristics. This position paper will outline the research directions underway at Sandia, will discuss relevant work being performed elsewhere, and will report progress to date toward assurance in agent-based systems

  19. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing......Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...

  20. On the formal analysis of the dynamics of simulated agent societies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Popova, V.; Eiben, A.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Schut, M.C.

    2007-01-01

    To analyze emergent behavior, a formal framework is needed to characterize the structure and dynamics of complex interaction-based multi-agent systems. We introduce an extension of an existing agent testbed for artificial societies making it possible to formally analyze the dynamics of the simulated

  1. What Can Students Learn in an Extended Role-Play Simulation on Technology and Society?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loui, Michael C.

    2009-01-01

    In a small course on technology and society, students participated in an extended role-play simulation for two weeks. Each student played a different adult character in a fictional community, which faces technological decisions in three scenarios set in the near future. The three scenarios involved stem cell research, nanotechnology, and privacy.…

  2. Can agent based models effectively reduce fisheries management implementation uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, M.

    2016-02-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent feature of fisheries management. Implementation uncertainty remains a challenge to quantify often due to unintended responses of users to management interventions. This problem will continue to plague both single species and ecosystem based fisheries management advice unless the mechanisms driving these behaviors are properly understood. Equilibrium models, where each actor in the system is treated as uniform and predictable, are not well suited to forecast the unintended behaviors of individual fishers. Alternatively, agent based models (AMBs) can simulate the behaviors of each individual actor driven by differing incentives and constraints. This study evaluated the feasibility of using AMBs to capture macro scale behaviors of the US West Coast Groundfish fleet. Agent behavior was specified at the vessel level. Agents made daily fishing decisions using knowledge of their own cost structure, catch history, and the histories of catch and quota markets. By adding only a relatively small number of incentives, the model was able to reproduce highly realistic macro patterns of expected outcomes in response to management policies (catch restrictions, MPAs, ITQs) while preserving vessel heterogeneity. These simulations indicate that agent based modeling approaches hold much promise for simulating fisher behaviors and reducing implementation uncertainty. Additional processes affecting behavior, informed by surveys, are continually being added to the fisher behavior model. Further coupling of the fisher behavior model to a spatial ecosystem model will provide a fully integrated social, ecological, and economic model capable of performing management strategy evaluations to properly consider implementation uncertainty in fisheries management.

  3. An agent-based model for integrated emotion regulation and contagion in socially affected decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Manzoor, A.; Treur, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses an agent-based computational social agent model for the integration of emotion regulation, emotion contagion and decision making in a social context. The model integrates emotion-related valuing, in order to analyse the role of emotions in socially affected decision making. The agent-based model is illustrated for the interaction between two persons. Simulation experiments for different kinds of scenarios help to understand how decisions can be affected by regulating the ...

  4. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

  5. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

  6. Multiscale agent-based cancer modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Le; Wang, Zhihui; Sagotsky, Jonathan A; Deisboeck, Thomas S

    2009-04-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an in silico technique that is being used in a variety of research areas such as in social sciences, economics and increasingly in biomedicine as an interdisciplinary tool to study the dynamics of complex systems. Here, we describe its applicability to integrative tumor biology research by introducing a multi-scale tumor modeling platform that understands brain cancer as a complex dynamic biosystem. We summarize significant findings of this work, and discuss both challenges and future directions for ABM in the field of cancer research.

  7. A Multi Agent Based Model for Airport Service Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.H. Ip

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Aviation industry is highly dynamic and demanding in nature that time and safety are the two most important factors while one of the major sources of delay is aircraft on ground because of it complexity, a lot of machinery like vehicles are involved and lots of communication are involved. As one of the aircraft ground services providers in Hong Kong International Airport, China Aircraft Services Limited (CASL aims to increase competitiveness by better its service provided while minimizing cost is also needed. One of the ways is to optimize the number of maintenance vehicles allocated in order to minimize chance of delay and also operating costs. In the paper, an agent-based model is proposed for support decision making in vehicle allocation. The overview of the aircrafts ground services procedures is firstly mentioned with different optimization methods suggested by researchers. Then, the agent-based approach is introduced and in the latter part of report and a multi-agent system is built and proposed which is decision supportive for CASL in optimizing the maintenance vehicles' allocation. The application provides flexibility for inputting number of different kinds of vehicles, simulation duration and aircraft arrival rate in order to simulation different scenarios which occurs in HKIA.

  8. Action research, simulation, team communication, and bringing the tacit into voice society for simulation in healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Lydia

    2009-01-01

    In healthcare, professionals usually function in a time-constrained paradigm because of the nature of care delivery functions and the acute patient populations usually in need of emergent and urgent care. This leaves little, if no time for team reflection, or team processing as a collaborative action. Simulation can be used to create a safe space as a structure for recognition and innovation to continue to develop a culture of safety for healthcare delivery and patient care. To create and develop a safe space, three qualitative modified action research institutional review board-approved studies were developed using simulation to explore team communication as an unfolding in the acute care environment of the operating room. An action heuristic was used for data collection by capturing the participants' narratives in the form of collaborative recall and reflection to standardize task, process, and language. During the qualitative simulations, the team participants identified and changed multiple tasks, process, and language items. The simulations contributed to positive changes for task and efficiencies, team interactions, and overall functionality of the team. The studies demonstrated that simulation can be used in healthcare to define safe spaces to practice, reflect, and develop collaborative relationships, which contribute to the realization of a culture of safety.

  9. Agent-Based Models in Social Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quang, Le Anh; Jung, Nam; Cho, Eun Sung; Choi, Jae Han; Lee, Jae Woo

    2018-06-01

    We review the agent-based models (ABM) on social physics including econophysics. The ABM consists of agent, system space, and external environment. The agent is autonomous and decides his/her behavior by interacting with the neighbors or the external environment with the rules of behavior. Agents are irrational because they have only limited information when they make decisions. They adapt using learning from past memories. Agents have various attributes and are heterogeneous. ABM is a non-equilibrium complex system that exhibits various emergence phenomena. The social complexity ABM describes human behavioral characteristics. In ABMs of econophysics, we introduce the Sugarscape model and the artificial market models. We review minority games and majority games in ABMs of game theory. Social flow ABM introduces crowding, evacuation, traffic congestion, and pedestrian dynamics. We also review ABM for opinion dynamics and voter model. We discuss features and advantages and disadvantages of Netlogo, Repast, Swarm, and Mason, which are representative platforms for implementing ABM.

  10. Econophysics of agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim

    2014-01-01

    The primary goal of this book is to present the research findings and conclusions of physicists, economists, mathematicians and financial engineers working in the field of "Econophysics" who have undertaken agent-based modelling, comparison with empirical studies and related investigations. Most standard economic models assume the existence of the representative agent, who is “perfectly rational” and applies the utility maximization principle when taking action. One reason for this is the desire to keep models mathematically tractable: no tools are available to economists for solving non-linear models of heterogeneous adaptive agents without explicit optimization. In contrast, multi-agent models, which originated from statistical physics considerations, allow us to go beyond the prototype theories of traditional economics involving the representative agent. This book is based on the Econophys-Kolkata VII Workshop, at which many such modelling efforts were presented. In the book, leading researchers in the...

  11. Agent-based Modeling Automated: Data-driven Generation of Innovation Diffusion Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jensen, T.; Chappin, E.J.L.

    2016-01-01

    Simulation modeling is useful to gain insights into driving mechanisms of diffusion of innovations. This study aims to introduce automation to make identification of such mechanisms with agent-based simulation modeling less costly in time and labor. We present a novel automation procedure in which

  12. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valbuena, D.F.; Verburg, P.H.; Bregt, A.K.; Ligtenberg, A.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local

  13. An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

    2007-06-01

    An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

  14. Empirical agent-based modelling challenges and solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Barreteau, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This instructional book showcases techniques to parameterise human agents in empirical agent-based models (ABM). In doing so, it provides a timely overview of key ABM methodologies and the most innovative approaches through a variety of empirical applications.  It features cutting-edge research from leading academics and practitioners, and will provide a guide for characterising and parameterising human agents in empirical ABM.  In order to facilitate learning, this text shares the valuable experiences of other modellers in particular modelling situations. Very little has been published in the area of empirical ABM, and this contributed volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying simulation modeling in economics, sociology, ecology, and trans-disciplinary studies, such as topics related to sustainability. In a similar vein to the instruction found in a cookbook, this text provides the empirical modeller with a set of 'recipes'  ready to be implemented. Agent-based modeling (AB...

  15. Agent-based models for higher-order theory of mind

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Weerd, Harmen; Verbrugge, Rineke; Verheij, Bart; Kamiński, Bogumił; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Agent-based models are a powerful tool for explaining the emergence of social phenomena in a society. In such models, individual agents typically have little cognitive ability. In this paper, we model agents with the cognitive ability to make use of theory of mind. People use this ability to reason

  16. An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

    This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

  17. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  18. Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

    2016-01-01

    This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

  19. Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model are developed for modeling the hybrid relational structure and complex operational processes, respectively. To intuitively elucidate this method, the agent based modeling is used to simulate the terrorist network and test the performance in diverse scenarios. Based on the experimental results, we show how the changes of operational environments affect the development of terrorist organization in terms of its recovery and capacity to perform future tasks. The potential strategies are also discussed, which can be used to restrain the activities of terrorists.

  20. An Agent Based approach to design Serious Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Gentile

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Serious games are designed to train and educate learners, opening up new learning approaches like exploratory learning and situated cognition.  Despite growing interest in these games, their design is still an artisan process.On the basis of experiences in designing computer simulation, this paper proposes an agent-based approach to guide the design process of a serious game. The proposed methodology allows the designer to strike the right equilibrium between educational effectiveness and entertainment, realism and complexity.The design of the PNPVillage game is used as a case study. The PNPVillage game aims to introduce and foster an entrepreneurial mindset among young students. It was implemented within the framework of the European project “I  can… I cannot… I go!” Rev.2

  1. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  2. Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

    The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

  3. Study of the attractor structure of an agent-based sociological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timpanaro, Andre M; Prado, Carmen P C, E-mail: timpa@if.usp.br, E-mail: prado@if.usp.br [Instituto de Fisica da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2011-03-01

    The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is based in the Potts model, and used for describing opinion propagation in a society. It employs an agent-based approach and interaction rules favouring pairs of agreeing agents. It has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections (see for instance the works of A. T. Bernardes and R. N. Costa Filho), but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to explain more complicated behaviours, we have modified the bounded confidence idea (introduced before in other opinion models, like the Deffuant model), with the introduction of prejudices and biases (we called this modification confidence rules), and have adapted it to the discrete Sznajd model. This generalized Sznajd model is able to reproduce almost all of the previous versions of the Sznajd model, by using appropriate choices of parameters. We solved the attractor structure of the resulting model in a mean-field approach and made Monte Carlo simulations in a Barabasi-Albert network. These simulations show great similarities with the mean-field, for the tested cases of 3 and 4 opinions. The dynamical systems approach that we devised allows for a deeper understanding of the potential of the Sznajd model as an opinion propagation model and can be easily extended to other models, like the voter model. Our modification of the bounded confidence rule can also be readily applied to other opinion propagation models.

  4. Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D; Mukhi, Shamir N

    2011-01-01

    This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level.

  5. An agent-based information management model of the Chinese pig sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.A.; Kramer, M.R.; Hofstede, G.J.; Roozmand, O.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of a selected top-down measure (what-if scenario) on actual agent behaviour and total system behaviour by means of an agent-based simulation model, when agents’ behaviour cannot fully be managed because the agents are autonomous. The Chinese pork sector serves as

  6. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  7. Use of Agent Based Modelling to Investigate the Dynamics of Slum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Urban planners and policy makers face challenges in effective management of slum ... slum characteristics using various remote sensing and artificial intelligence ... an empirically informed agent based prototype that can simulate future patterns ... The study incorporates physical, environmental, social and economic factors ...

  8. Towards Agent-Based Model Specification in Smart Grid: A Cognitive Agent-based Computing Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Akram, Waseem; Niazi, Muaz A.; Iantovics, Laszlo Barna

    2017-01-01

    A smart grid can be considered as a complex network where each node represents a generation unit or a consumer. Whereas links can be used to represent transmission lines. One way to study complex systems is by using the agent-based modeling (ABM) paradigm. An ABM is a way of representing a complex system of autonomous agents interacting with each other. Previously, a number of studies have been presented in the smart grid domain making use of the ABM paradigm. However, to the best of our know...

  9. Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

  10. Between Complexity and Parsimony: Can Agent-Based Modelling Resolve the Trade-off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Malawska, Anna Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    to BR- based policy studies would be to couple research on bounded ra-tionality with agent-based modeling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the behavior and interactions of any number of decision makers in a dynamic system. Agent-based models are better suited than...... are general equilibrium models for capturing behavior patterns of complex systems. ABMs may have the potential to represent complex systems without oversimplifying them. At the same time, research in bounded rationality and behavioral economics has already yielded many insights that could inform the modeling......While Herbert Simon espoused development of general models of behavior, he also strongly advo-cated that these models be based on realistic assumptions about humans and therefore reflect the complexity of human cognition and social systems (Simon 1997). Hence, the model of bounded rationality...

  11. An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

  12. Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

    2007-06-01

    Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

  13. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zining Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

  14. Agent-based modelling of heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2010-07-01

    Full text: This paper introduces agent-based modelling as a methodological approach to understand the effect of decision making mechanism on the adoption of heating systems in Norway. The model is used as an experimental/learning tool to design possible interventions, not for prediction. The intended users of the model are therefore policy designers. Primary heating system adoptions of electric heating, heat pump and wood pellet heating were selected. Random topology was chosen to represent social network among households. Agents were households with certain location, number of peers, current adopted heating system, employed decision strategy, and degree of social influence in decision making. The overall framework of decision-making integrated theories from different disciplines; customer behavior theory, behavioral economics, theory of planned behavior, and diffusion of innovation, in order to capture possible decision making processes in households. A mail survey of 270 Norwegian households conducted in 2008 was designed specifically for acquiring data for the simulation. The model represents real geographic area of households and simulates the overall fraction of adopted heating system under study. The model was calibrated with historical data from Statistics Norway (SSB). Interventions with respects to total cost, norms, indoor air quality, reliability, supply security, required work, could be explored using the model. For instance, the model demonstrates that a considerable total cost (investment and operating cost) increase of electric heating and heat pump, rather than a reduction of wood pellet heating's total cost, are required to initiate and speed up wood pellet adoption. (Author)

  15. Smart Agent Based Mobile Tutoring and Querying System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Sankaranarayanan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available With our busy schedules today and the rising cost of education there is a need to find a convenient and cost effective means of maximizing our educational/training experiences. New trends in the delivery/access of information are becoming more technology based in all areas of society with education being no exception. The ubiquitous use of mobile devices has led to a boom in m-commerce. Mobile devices provide many services in commercial environments such as mobile banking, mobile purchasing, mobile learning, etc. It is therefore fitting that we seek to use mobile devices as a platform in delivering our convenient and cost effective solution. The proposed agent based Mobile tutoring system seeks to provide a student with a rich learning experience that will provide them with the relevant reading material based on their stage of development which allows them to move at their own pace. The system will allow the user to be able to ask certain questions and get explanations as if they were interacting with a human tutor but with the added benefit of being able to do this anytime in any location via their mobile phone.

  16. Computer-assisted learning and simulation systems in dentistry--a challenge to society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welk, A; Splieth, Ch; Wierinck, E; Gilpatrick, R O; Meyer, G

    2006-07-01

    Computer technology is increasingly used in practical training at universities. However, in spite of their potential, computer-assisted learning (CAL) and computer-assisted simulation (CAS) systems still appear to be underutilized in dental education. Advantages, challenges, problems, and solutions of computer-assisted learning and simulation in dentistry are discussed by means of MEDLINE, open Internet platform searches, and key results of a study among German dental schools. The advantages of computer-assisted learning are seen for example in self-paced and self-directed learning and increased motivation. It is useful for both objective theoretical and practical tests and for training students to handle complex cases. CAL can lead to more structured learning and can support training in evidence-based decision-making. The reasons for the still relatively rare implementation of CAL/CAS systems in dental education include an inability to finance, lack of studies of CAL/CAS, and too much effort required to integrate CAL/CAS systems into the curriculum. To overcome the reasons for the relative low degree of computer technology use, we should strive for multicenter research and development projects monitored by the appropriate national and international scientific societies, so that the potential of computer technology can be fully realized in graduate, postgraduate, and continuing dental education.

  17. Investigating immune system aging: system dynamics and agent-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Figueredo, Grazziela; Aickelin, Uwe

    2010-01-01

    System dynamics and agent based simulation models can\\ud both be used to model and understand interactions of entities within a population. Our modeling work presented here is concerned with understanding the suitability of the different types of simulation for the immune system aging problems and comparing their results. We are trying to answer questions such as: How fit is the immune system given a certain age? Would an immune boost be of therapeutic value, e.g. to improve the effectiveness...

  18. Multi-agent based simulator with high fidelity virtual sensors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papp, Z.; Thean, A.H.C.; Elk, M.G. van; Dorrepaal, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nowadays the distributed implementation of measurement/data processing/control systems is gaining importance. This process is driven by application domain needs. Wide variety of applications (e.g. mobile-robotic, intelligent vehicle, autonomous-guided-vehicle systems) can be modelled as a collection

  19. Investigating Ground Swarm Robotics Using Agent Based Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ho, Sze-Tek T

    2006-01-01

    The concept of employing ground swarm robotics to accomplish tasks has been proposed for future use in humanitarian de-mining, plume monitoring, searching for survivors in a disaster site, and other hazardous activities...

  20. Agent-based analysis of organizations : formalization and simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dignum, M.V.; Tick, C.

    2007-01-01

    Organizational effectiveness depends on many factors, including individual excellence, efficient structures, effective planning and capability to understand and match context requirements. We propose a way to model organizational performance based on a combination of formal models and

  1. The institutional stance in agent-based simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sileno, G.; Boer, A.; van Engers, T.; Filipe, J.; Fred, A.L.N.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-agent framework intended to animate scenarios of compliance and non-compliance in a normative system. With the purpose of describing social human behaviour, we choose to reduce social complexity by creating models of the involved agents starting from stories, and

  2. Simulation of Martian EVA at the Mars Society Arctic Research Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pletser, V.; Zubrin, R.; Quinn, K.

    The Mars Society has established a Mars Arctic Research Station (M.A.R.S.) on Devon Island, North of Canada, in the middle of the Haughton crater formed by the impact of a large meteorite several million years ago. The site was selected for its similarities with the surface of the Mars planet. During the Summer 2001, the MARS Flashline Research Station supported an extended international simulation campaign of human Mars exploration operations. Six rotations of six person crews spent up to ten days each at the MARS Flashline Research Station. International crews, of mixed gender and professional qualifications, conducted various tasks as a Martian crew would do and performed scientific experiments in several fields (Geophysics, Biology, Psychology). One of the goals of this simulation campaign was to assess the operational and technical feasibility of sustaining a crew in an autonomous habitat, conducting a field scientific research program. Operations were conducted as they would be during a Martian mission, including Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) with specially designed unpressurized suits. The second rotation crew conducted seven simulated EVAs for a total of 17 hours, including motorized EVAs with All Terrain Vehicles, to perform field scientific experiments in Biology and Geophysics. Some EVAs were highly successful. For some others, several problems were encountered related to hardware technical failures and to bad weather conditions. The paper will present the experiment programme conducted at the Mars Flashline Research Station, the problems encountered and the lessons learned from an EVA operational point of view. Suggestions to improve foreseen Martian EVA operations will be discussed.

  3. Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinde, Snehal B; Kurhekar, Manish P

    2018-06-01

    The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

  4. An Agent Based Model of Household Water Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clinton J. Andrews

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Households consume a significant fraction of total potable water production. Strategies to improve the efficiency of water use tend to emphasize technological interventions to reduce or shift water demand. Behavioral water use reduction strategies can also play an important role, but a flexible framework for exploring the “what-ifs” has not been available. This paper introduces such a framework, presenting an agent-based model of household water-consuming behavior. The model simulates hourly water-using activities of household members within a rich technological and behavioral context, calibrated with appropriate data. Illustrative experiments compare the resulting water usage of U.S. and Dutch households and their associated water-using technologies, different household types (singles, families with children, and retired couples, different water metering regimes, and educational campaigns. All else equal, Dutch and metered households use less water. Retired households use more water because they are more often at home. Water-saving educational campaigns are effective for the part of the population that is receptive. Important interactions among these factors, both technological and behavioral, highlight the value of this framework for integrated analysis of the human-technology-water system.

  5. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  6. An Agent-Based Modeling Template for a Cohort of Veterans with Diabetic Retinopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore Eugene Day

    Full Text Available Agent-based models are valuable for examining systems where large numbers of discrete individuals interact with each other, or with some environment. Diabetic Veterans seeking eye care at a Veterans Administration hospital represent one such cohort.The objective of this study was to develop an agent-based template to be used as a model for a patient with diabetic retinopathy (DR. This template may be replicated arbitrarily many times in order to generate a large cohort which is representative of a real-world population, upon which in-silico experimentation may be conducted.Agent-based template development was performed in java-based computer simulation suite AnyLogic Professional 6.6. The model was informed by medical data abstracted from 535 patient records representing a retrospective cohort of current patients of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System Eye clinic. Logistic regression was performed to determine the predictors associated with advancing stages of DR. Predicted probabilities obtained from logistic regression were used to generate the stage of DR in the simulated cohort.The simulated cohort of DR patients exhibited no significant deviation from the test population of real-world patients in proportion of stage of DR, duration of diabetes mellitus (DM, or the other abstracted predictors. Simulated patients after 10 years were significantly more likely to exhibit proliferative DR (P<0.001.Agent-based modeling is an emerging platform, capable of simulating large cohorts of individuals based on manageable data abstraction efforts. The modeling method described may be useful in simulating many different conditions where course of disease is described in categorical stages.

  7. Teamcore Project Control of Agent-Based Systems (COABS) Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tambe, Milind

    2002-01-01

    An increasing number of agent-based systems now operate in complex dynamic environments, such as disaster rescue missions, monitoring/surveillance tasks, enterprise integration, and education/training environments...

  8. Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

    2016-02-01

    Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  9. Linking Cognitive and Social Aspects of Sound Change Using Agent-Based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Jonathan; Kleber, Felicitas; Reubold, Ulrich; Schiel, Florian; Stevens, Mary

    2018-03-26

    The paper defines the core components of an interactive-phonetic (IP) sound change model. The starting point for the IP-model is that a phonological category is often skewed phonetically in a certain direction by the production and perception of speech. A prediction of the model is that sound change is likely to come about as a result of perceiving phonetic variants in the direction of the skew and at the probabilistic edge of the listener's phonological category. The results of agent-based computational simulations applied to the sound change in progress, /u/-fronting in Standard Southern British, were consistent with this hypothesis. The model was extended to sound changes involving splits and mergers by using the interaction between the agents to drive the phonological reclassification of perceived speech signals. The simulations showed no evidence of any acoustic change when this extended model was applied to Australian English data in which /s/ has been shown to retract due to coarticulation in /str/ clusters. Some agents nevertheless varied in their phonological categorizations during interaction between /str/ and /ʃtr/: This vacillation may represent the potential for sound change to occur. The general conclusion is that many types of sound change are the outcome of how phonetic distributions are oriented with respect to each other, their association to phonological classes, and how these types of information vary between speakers that happen to interact with each other. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

  10. Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

    2015-06-02

    Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

  11. A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Lin

    2011-01-01

    This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

  12. Developing an agent-based model on how different individuals solve complex problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipek Bozkurt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Research that focuses on the emotional, mental, behavioral and cognitive capabilities of individuals has been abundant within disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and anthropology, among others. However, when facing complex problems, a new perspective to understand individuals is necessary. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an agent-based model and simulation to gain understanding on the decision-making and problem-solving abilities of individuals. Design/Methodology/approach: The micro-level analysis modeling and simulation paradigm Agent-Based Modeling Through the use of Agent-Based Modeling, insight is gained on how different individuals with different profiles deal with complex problems. Using previous literature from different bodies of knowledge, established theories and certain assumptions as input parameters, a model is built and executed through a computer simulation. Findings: The results indicate that individuals with certain profiles have better capabilities to deal with complex problems. Moderate profiles could solve the entire complex problem, whereas profiles within extreme conditions could not. This indicates that having a strong predisposition is not the ideal way when approaching complex problems, and there should always be a component from the other perspective. The probability that an individual may use these capabilities provided by the opposite predisposition provides to be a useful option. Originality/value: The originality of the present research stems from how individuals are profiled, and the model and simulation that is built to understand how they solve complex problems. The development of the agent-based model adds value to the existing body of knowledge within both social sciences, and modeling and simulation.

  13. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

  15. Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawlor, Jennifer A; McGirr, Sara

    2017-12-01

    Recently, systems thinking and systems science approaches have gained popularity in the field of evaluation; however, there has been relatively little exploration of how evaluators could use quantitative tools to assist in the implementation of systems approaches therein. The purpose of this paper is to explore potential uses of one such quantitative tool, agent-based modeling, in evaluation practice. To this end, we define agent-based modeling and offer potential uses for it in typical evaluation activities, including: engaging stakeholders, selecting an intervention, modeling program theory, setting performance targets, and interpreting evaluation results. We provide demonstrative examples from published agent-based modeling efforts both inside and outside the field of evaluation for each of the evaluative activities discussed. We further describe potential pitfalls of this tool and offer cautions for evaluators who may chose to implement it in their practice. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of the future of agent-based modeling in evaluation practice and a call for more formal exploration of this tool as well as other approaches to simulation modeling in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Zining Yang

    2016-01-01

    In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

  17. A framework to specify agent-based models in geographic sciences

    OpenAIRE

    Grueau, Cédric; Araújo, João

    2015-01-01

    Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and simulation have gained popularity in the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) domain. Despite the increasing number of models built by experts and users, it remains challenging for users to specify their models in a manner in which one can understand it. This constraint represents an inhibition to the development and acceptance of the ABM approach. In this paper, we raise the questions that need to be answered in order to cope with ABM specification issues. We r...

  18. Money-Scape: A Generic Agent-Based Model of Corruption

    OpenAIRE

    Hokky Situngkir

    2004-01-01

    There has been a lot of works on corruption cases. We must think that corruption is a cultural aspect in a social life. We cannot separate the corruption with the cultural system where the corruption raised. Indonesia has been recorded to be one of the countries of the worst economic and political system on corruption case. The paper is introducing the usage of agent based simulation for analyzing the corruption specifically in Indonesia as the biggest corruption level. The model showed is na...

  19. Toward an agent-based patient-physician model for the adoption of continuous glucose monitoring technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verella, J Tipan; Patek, Stephen D

    2009-03-01

    Health care is a major component of the U.S. economy, and tremendous research and development efforts are directed toward new technologies in this arena. Unfortunately few tools exist for predicting outcomes associated with new medical products, including whether new technologies will find widespread use within the target population. Questions of technology adoption are rife within the diabetes technology community, and we particularly consider the long-term prognosis for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology. We present an approach to the design and analysis of an agent model that describes the process of CGM adoption among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), their physicians, and related stakeholders. We particularly focus on patient-physician interactions, with patients discovering CGM technology through word-of-mouth communication and through advertising, applying pressure to their physicians in the context of CGM device adoption, and physicians, concerned about liability, looking to peers for a general level of acceptance of the technology before recommending CGM to their patients. Repeated simulation trials of the agent-based model show that the adoption process reflects the heterogeneity of the adopting community. We also find that the effect of the interaction between patients and physicians is agents. Each physician, say colored by the nature of the environment as defined by the model parameters. We find that, by being able to represent the diverse perspectives of different types of stakeholders, agent-based models can offer useful insights into the adoption process. Models of this sort may eventually prove to be useful in helping physicians, other health care providers, patient advocacy groups, third party payers, and device manufacturers understand the impact of their decisions about new technologies. (c) 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

  20. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  1. The Hunt Opinion Model—An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: “snobs” and “followers” (or “opinion hunters”, hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model—quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf’s bifurcation. PMID:27835679

  2. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Apriasz

    Full Text Available We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model. Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists. Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model, we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  3. Agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhenhua

    The active hybridization technique provides an effective approach to combining the best properties of a heterogeneous set of power sources to achieve higher energy density, power density and fuel efficiency. Active hybrid power sources can be used to power hybrid electric vehicles with selected combinations of internal combustion engines, fuel cells, batteries, and/or supercapacitors. They can be deployed in all-electric ships to build a distributed electric power system. They can also be used in a bulk power system to construct an autonomous distributed energy system. An important aspect in designing an active hybrid power source is to find a suitable control strategy that can manage the active power sharing and take advantage of the inherent scalability and robustness benefits of the hybrid system. This paper presents an agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed agent-based power sharing scheme, simulation studies are performed for a hybrid power source that can be used in a solar car as the main propulsion power module. Simulation results clearly indicate that the agent-based control framework is effective to coordinate the various energy sources and manage the power/voltage profiles.

  4. A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)

  5. An Adaptive Agent-Based Model of Homing Pigeons: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Oloo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventionally, agent-based modelling approaches start from a conceptual model capturing the theoretical understanding of the systems of interest. Simulation outcomes are then used “at the end” to validate the conceptual understanding. In today’s data rich era, there are suggestions that models should be data-driven. Data-driven workflows are common in mathematical models. However, their application to agent-based models is still in its infancy. Integration of real-time sensor data into modelling workflows opens up the possibility of comparing simulations against real data during the model run. Calibration and validation procedures thus become automated processes that are iteratively executed during the simulation. We hypothesize that incorporation of real-time sensor data into agent-based models improves the predictive ability of such models. In particular, that such integration results in increasingly well calibrated model parameters and rule sets. In this contribution, we explore this question by implementing a flocking model that evolves in real-time. Specifically, we use genetic algorithms approach to simulate representative parameters to describe flight routes of homing pigeons. The navigation parameters of pigeons are simulated and dynamically evaluated against emulated GPS sensor data streams and optimised based on the fitness of candidate parameters. As a result, the model was able to accurately simulate the relative-turn angles and step-distance of homing pigeons. Further, the optimised parameters could replicate loops, which are common patterns in flight tracks of homing pigeons. Finally, the use of genetic algorithms in this study allowed for a simultaneous data-driven optimization and sensitivity analysis.

  6. Controlling for false negatives in agent-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Secchi, Davide; Seri, Raffaello

    2017-01-01

    This article is concerned with the study of statistical power in agent-based modeling (ABM). After an overview of classic statistics theory on how to interpret Type-II error (whose occurrence is also referred to as a false negative) and power, the manuscript presents a study on ABM simulation art...... of simulation runs to reach an appropriate level of power. The study concludes with the importance for organizational behavior scholars to perform their models in an attempt to reach a power of 0.95 or higher at the 0.01 significance level....

  7. Agent-based Security and Efficiency Estimation in Airport Terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.

    We investigate the use of an Agent-based framework to identify and quantify the relationship between security and efficiency within airport terminals. In this framework, we define a novel Security Risk Assessment methodology that explicitly models attacker and defender behavior in a security

  8. A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

    2018-01-01

    Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

  9. Agent-based services for B2B electronic commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Elizabeth; Ivezic, Nenad; Rhodes, Tom; Peng, Yun

    2000-12-01

    The potential of agent-based systems has not been realized yet, in part, because of the lack of understanding of how the agent technology supports industrial needs and emerging standards. The area of business-to-business electronic commerce (b2b e-commerce) is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of industry with huge impact on manufacturing practices. In this paper, we investigate the current state of agent technology and the feasibility of applying agent-based computing to b2b e-commerce in the circuit board manufacturing sector. We identify critical tasks and opportunities in the b2b e-commerce area where agent-based services can best be deployed. We describe an implemented agent-based prototype system to facilitate the bidding process for printed circuit board manufacturing and assembly. These activities are taking place within the Internet Commerce for Manufacturing (ICM) project, the NIST- sponsored project working with industry to create an environment where small manufacturers of mechanical and electronic components may participate competitively in virtual enterprises that manufacture printed circuit assemblies.

  10. Agent-based transportation planning compared with scheduling heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mes, Martijn R.K.; van der Heijden, Matthijs C.; van Harten, Aart

    2004-01-01

    Here we consider the problem of dynamically assigning vehicles to transportation orders that have di¤erent time windows and should be handled in real time. We introduce a new agent-based system for the planning and scheduling of these transportation networks. Intelligent vehicle agents schedule

  11. Simulated Sustainable Societies: Students' Reflections on Creating Future Cities in Computer Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Elisabet M.; Jakobsson, Anders

    2011-01-01

    The empirical study, in this article, involved 42 students (ages 14-15), who used the urban simulation computer game SimCity 4 to create models of sustainable future cities. The aim was to explore in what ways the simulated "real" worlds provided by this game could be a potential facilitator for science learning contexts. The topic investigated is…

  12. An agent-based model of centralized institutions, social network technology, and revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makowsky, Michael D; Rubin, Jared

    2013-01-01

    This paper sheds light on the general mechanisms underlying large-scale social and institutional change. We employ an agent-based model to test the impact of authority centralization and social network technology on preference falsification and institutional change. We find that preference falsification is increasing with centralization and decreasing with social network range. This leads to greater cascades of preference revelation and thus more institutional change in highly centralized societies and this effect is exacerbated at greater social network ranges. An empirical analysis confirms the connections that we find between institutional centralization, social radius, preference falsification, and institutional change.

  13. On Religion and Language Evolutions Seen Through Mathematical and Agent Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.

    Religions and languages are social variables, like age, sex, wealth or political opinions, to be studied like any other organizational parameter. In fact, religiosity is one of the most important sociological aspects of populations. Languages are also obvious characteristics of the human species. Religions, languages appear though also disappear. All religions and languages evolve and survive when they adapt to the society developments. On the other hand, the number of adherents of a given religion, or the number of persons speaking a language is not fixed in time, - nor space. Several questions can be raised. E.g. from a oscopic point of view : How many religions/languages exist at a given time? What is their distribution? What is their life time? How do they evolve? From a "microscopic" view point: can one invent agent based models to describe oscopic aspects? Do simple evolution equations exist? How complicated must be a model? These aspects are considered in the present note. Basic evolution equations are outlined and critically, though briefly, discussed. Similarities and differences between religions and languages are summarized. Cases can be illustrated with historical facts and data. It is stressed that characteristic time scales are different. It is emphasized that "external fields" are historically very relevant in the case of religions, rending the study more " interesting" within a mechanistic approach based on parity and symmetry of clusters concepts. Yet the modern description of human societies through networks in reported simulations is still lacking some mandatory ingredients, i.e. the non scalar nature of the nodes, and the non binary aspects of nodes and links, though for the latter this is already often taken into account, including directions. From an analytical point of view one can consider a population independently of the others. It is intuitively accepted, but also found from the statistical analysis of the frequency distribution that an

  14. An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, van A.M.; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the

  15. A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

  16. An agent-based model of signal transduction in bacterial chemotaxis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jameson Miller

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We report the application of agent-based modeling to examine the signal transduction network and receptor arrays for chemotaxis in Escherichia coli, which are responsible for regulating swimming behavior in response to environmental stimuli. Agent-based modeling is a stochastic and bottom-up approach, where individual components of the modeled system are explicitly represented, and bulk properties emerge from their movement and interactions. We present the Chemoscape model: a collection of agents representing both fixed membrane-embedded and mobile cytoplasmic proteins, each governed by a set of rules representing knowledge or hypotheses about their function. When the agents were placed in a simulated cellular space and then allowed to move and interact stochastically, the model exhibited many properties similar to the biological system including adaptation, high signal gain, and wide dynamic range. We found the agent based modeling approach to be both powerful and intuitive for testing hypotheses about biological properties such as self-assembly, the non-linear dynamics that occur through cooperative protein interactions, and non-uniform distributions of proteins in the cell. We applied the model to explore the role of receptor type, geometry and cooperativity in the signal gain and dynamic range of the chemotactic response to environmental stimuli. The model provided substantial qualitative evidence that the dynamic range of chemotactic response can be traced to both the heterogeneity of receptor types present, and the modulation of their cooperativity by their methylation state.

  17. An agent-based model of signal transduction in bacterial chemotaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jameson; Parker, Miles; Bourret, Robert B; Giddings, Morgan C

    2010-05-13

    We report the application of agent-based modeling to examine the signal transduction network and receptor arrays for chemotaxis in Escherichia coli, which are responsible for regulating swimming behavior in response to environmental stimuli. Agent-based modeling is a stochastic and bottom-up approach, where individual components of the modeled system are explicitly represented, and bulk properties emerge from their movement and interactions. We present the Chemoscape model: a collection of agents representing both fixed membrane-embedded and mobile cytoplasmic proteins, each governed by a set of rules representing knowledge or hypotheses about their function. When the agents were placed in a simulated cellular space and then allowed to move and interact stochastically, the model exhibited many properties similar to the biological system including adaptation, high signal gain, and wide dynamic range. We found the agent based modeling approach to be both powerful and intuitive for testing hypotheses about biological properties such as self-assembly, the non-linear dynamics that occur through cooperative protein interactions, and non-uniform distributions of proteins in the cell. We applied the model to explore the role of receptor type, geometry and cooperativity in the signal gain and dynamic range of the chemotactic response to environmental stimuli. The model provided substantial qualitative evidence that the dynamic range of chemotactic response can be traced to both the heterogeneity of receptor types present, and the modulation of their cooperativity by their methylation state.

  18. Recent advances in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Fujita, Katsuhide; Robu, Valentin

    2016-01-01

    This book covers recent advances in Complex Automated Negotiations as a widely studied emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. The book includes selected revised and extended papers from the 7th International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN2014), which was held in Paris, France, in May 2014. The book also includes brief introductions about Agent-based Complex Automated Negotiation which are based on tutorials provided in the workshop, and brief summaries and descriptions about the ANAC'14 (Automated Negotiating Agents Competition) competition, where authors of selected finalist agents explain the strategies and the ideas used by them. The book is targeted to academic and industrial researchers in various communities of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as agreement technology, mechanism design, electronic commerce, related areas, as well as graduate, undergraduate, and PhD students working in those areas or having interest in them.

  19. Security Framework for Agent-Based Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Venkateshwaran

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Agent can play a key role in bringing suitable cloud services to the customer based on their requirements. In agent based cloud computing, agent does negotiation, coordination, cooperation and collaboration on behalf of the customer to make the decisions in efficient manner. However the agent based cloud computing have some security issues like (a. addition of malicious agent in the cloud environment which could demolish the process by attacking other agents, (b. denial of service by creating flooding attacks on other involved agents. (c. Some of the exceptions in the agent interaction protocol such as Not-Understood and Cancel_Meta protocol can be misused and may lead to terminating the connection of all the other agents participating in the negotiating services. Also, this paper proposes algorithms to solve these issues to ensure that there will be no intervention of any malicious activities during the agent interaction.

  20. A Framework for Agent-based Human Interaction Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Bürkle

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an agent-based infrastructure for multimodal perceptual systems which aims at developing and realizing computer services that are delivered to humans in an implicit and unobtrusive way. The framework presented here supports the implementation of human-centric context-aware applications providing non-obtrusive assistance to participants in events such as meetings, lectures, conferences and presentations taking place in indoor "smart spaces". We emphasize on the design and implementation of an agent-based framework that supports "pluggable" service logic in the sense that the service developer can concentrate on coding the service logic independently of the underlying middleware. Furthermore, we give an example of the architecture's ability to support the cooperation of multiple services in a meeting scenario using an intelligent connector service and a semantic web oriented travel service.

  1. A strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Śnieżyński Bartłomiej

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification. In the literature, the most commonly used learning method in agent-based systems is reinforcement learning. In our opinion, classification can be considered a good alternative. This type of supervised learning can be used to generate a classifier that allows the agent to choose an appropriate action for execution. Experimental results show that this model can be successfully applied for strategy generation even if rewards are delayed. We compare the efficiency of the proposed model and reinforcement learning using the farmer-pest domain and configurations of various complexity. In complex environments, supervised learning can improve the performance of agents much faster that reinforcement learning. If an appropriate knowledge representation is used, the learned knowledge may be analyzed by humans, which allows tracking the learning process

  2. Novel insights in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez-Carmona, Miguel; Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Bai, Quan; Fujita, Katsuhide

    2014-01-01

    This book focuses on all aspects of complex automated negotiations, which are studied in the field of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems. This book consists of two parts. I: Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations, and II: Automated Negotiation Agents Competition. The chapters in Part I are extended versions of papers presented at the 2012 international workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN), after peer reviews by three Program Committee members. Part II examines in detail ANAC 2012 (The Third Automated Negotiating Agents Competition), in which automated agents that have different negotiation strategies and are implemented by different developers are automatically negotiated in the several negotiation domains. ANAC is an international competition in which automated negotiation strategies, submitted by a number of universities and research institutes across the world, are evaluated in tournament style. The purpose of the competition is to steer the research in the area of bilate...

  3. The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2008-06-01

    Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

  4. AGENT-BASED NEGOTIATION PLATFORM IN COLLABORATIVE NETWORKED ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Georgeta CREȚAN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an agent-based platform to model and support parallel and concurrent negotiations among organizations acting in the same industrial market. The underlying complexity is to model the dynamic environment where multi-attribute and multi-participant negotiations are racing over a set of heterogeneous resources. The metaphor Interaction Abstract Machines (IAMs is used to model the parallelism and the non-deterministic aspects of the negotiation processes that occur in Collaborative Networked Environment.

  5. Financial Regulation in an Agent Based Macroeconomic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Mauro, Gallegati

    2013-01-01

    Starting from the agent-based decentralized matching macroeconomic model proposed in Riccetti et al. (2012), we explore the effects of banking regulation on macroeconomic dynamics. In particular, we study the overall credit exposure and the lending concentration towards a single counterparty, finding that the portfolio composition seems to be more relevant than the overall exposure for banking stability, even if both features are very important. We show that a too tight regulation is dangerou...

  6. SETH: A Hierarchical, Agent-based Architecture for Smart Spaces

    OpenAIRE

    Marsá Maestre, Iván

    2008-01-01

    The ultimate goal of any smart environment is to release users from the tasks they usually perform to achieve comfort, efficiency, and service personalization. To achieve this goal, we propose to use multiagent systems. In this report we describe the SETH architectur: a hierarchical, agent-based solution intended to be applicable to different smart space scenarios, ranging from small environments, like smart homes or smart offices, to large smart spaces like cities.

  7. Macroprudential policies in an agent-based artificial economy

    OpenAIRE

    Raberto, Marco; Teglio, Andrea; Cincotti, Silvano

    2012-01-01

    Basel III is a recently-agreed regulatory standard for bank capital adequacy with focus on the macroprudential dimension of banking regulation, i.e., the system- wide implications of banks’ lending and risk. An important Basel III provision is to reduce procyclicality of present banking regulation and promote countercyclical capital buffers for banks. The Eurace agent-based macroeconomic model and sim- ulator has been recently showed to be able to reproduce a credit-fueled boom-bust dynamics ...

  8. An Agent Based Collaborative Simplification of 3D Mesh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li-Rong; Yu, Bo; Hagiwara, Ichiro

    Large-volume mesh model faces the challenge in fast rendering and transmission by Internet. The current mesh models obtained by using three-dimensional (3D) scanning technology are usually very large in data volume. This paper develops a mobile agent based collaborative environment on the development platform of mobile-C. Communication among distributed agents includes grasping image of visualized mesh model, annotation to grasped image and instant message. Remote and collaborative simplification can be efficiently conducted by Internet.

  9. An Agent Based Approach for Project Management in Construction

    OpenAIRE

    Sencer, Safiye; Turgay, Tahsin

    2013-01-01

    Project management has an important role in terms of time, cost and flexibility. An agentbased architecture provides additional robustness, scalability, flexibility that is particularly appropriate for problems with a dynamic and distributed nature. Integrated agent based project management covers design and construction planning. It is combined with plan execution, tolerating both the design and plan, which may be changed as necessary. In this reason, the decision making process requires tha...

  10. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  11. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dressler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  12. Simulated Sustainable Societies: Students' Reflections on Creating Future Cities in Computer Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Elisabet M.; Jakobsson, Anders

    2011-02-01

    The empirical study, in this article, involved 42 students (ages 14-15), who used the urban simulation computer game SimCity 4 to create models of sustainable future cities. The aim was to explore in what ways the simulated "real" worlds provided by this game could be a potential facilitator for science learning contexts. The topic investigated is in what way interactions in this gaming environment, and reflections about these interactions, can form a context where the students deal with real world problems, and where they can contextualise and apply their scientific knowledge. Focus group interviews and video recordings were used to gather data on students' reflections on their cities, and on sustainable development. The findings indicate that SimCity 4 actually contributes to creating meaningful educational situations in science classrooms, and that computer games can constitute an important artefact that may facilitate contextualisation and make students' use of science concepts and theories more explicit.

  13. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  14. Agent based Particle Swarm Optimization for Load Frequency Control of Distribution Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cha, Seung-Tae; Saleem, Arshad; Wu, Qiuwei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based on multi-agent controller. Real-time digital simulator (RTDS) is used for modelling the power system, while a PSO based multi-agent LFC algorithm is developed in JAVA for communicating with resource agents and determines the scenario...... to stabilize the frequency and voltage after the system enters into the islanding operation mode. The proposed algorithm is based on the formulation of an optimization problem using agent based PSO. The modified IEEE 9-bus system is employed to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller via RTDS...

  15. An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Espíndola, Aquino L; Bauch, Chris T; Troca Cabella, Brenno C; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2011-01-01

    In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed

  16. Multi-agent based modeling for electric vehicle integration in a distribution network operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Morais, Hugo; Lind, Morten

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a multi-agent based modeling technology for simulating and operating a hierarchical energy management of a power distribution system with focus on EVs integration. The proposed multi-agent system consists of four types of agents: i) Distribution system...... operator (DSO) technical agent and ii) DSO market agents that both belong to the top layer of the hierarchy and their roles are to manage the distribution network by avoiding grid congestions and using congestion prices to coordinate the energy scheduled; iii) Electric vehicle virtual power plant agents...

  17. Diffusion and Aggregation in an Agent Based Model of Stock Market Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castiglione, Filippo

    We describe a new model to simulate the dynamic interactions between market price and the decisions of two different kind of traders. They possess spatial mobility allowing to group together to form coalitions. Each coalition follows a strategy chosen from a proportional voting ``dominated'' by a leader's decision. The interplay of both kind of agents gives rise to complex price dynamics that is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial time series. The present model incorporates many features of other known models and is meant to be the first step toward the construction of an agent-based model that uses more realistic markets rules, strategies, and information structures.

  18. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-01-01

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model

  19. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidden, Matthew J.

    Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

  20. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  1. Information driving force and its application in agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2018-04-01

    Exploring the scientific impact of online big-data has attracted much attention of researchers from different fields in recent years. Complex financial systems are typical open systems profoundly influenced by the external information. Based on the large-scale data in the public media and stock markets, we first define an information driving force, and analyze how it affects the complex financial system. The information driving force is observed to be asymmetric in the bull and bear market states. As an application, we then propose an agent-based model driven by the information driving force. Especially, all the key parameters are determined from the empirical analysis rather than from statistical fitting of the simulation results. With our model, both the stationary properties and non-stationary dynamic behaviors are simulated. Considering the mean-field effect of the external information, we also propose a few-body model to simulate the financial market in the laboratory.

  2. Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Niaz Arifin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

  3. Data Provenance for Agent-Based Models in a Distributed Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delmar B. Davis

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent-Based Models (ABMs assist with studying emergent collective behavior of individual entities in social, biological, economic, network, and physical systems. Data provenance can support ABM by explaining individual agent behavior. However, there is no provenance support for ABMs in a distributed setting. The Multi-Agent Spatial Simulation (MASS library provides a framework for simulating ABMs at fine granularity, where agents and spatial data are shared application resources in a distributed memory. We introduce a novel approach to capture ABM provenance in a distributed memory, called ProvMASS. We evaluate our technique with traditional data provenance queries and performance measures. Our results indicate that a configurable approach can capture provenance that explains coordination of distributed shared resources, simulation logic, and agent behavior while limiting performance overhead. We also show the ability to support practical analyses (e.g., agent tracking and storage requirements for different capture configurations.

  4. Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, David; Karl, Stephan; Zimmerman, Peter A; King, Charles H; St Pierre, Timothy G; Davis, Timothy M E

    2012-01-01

    Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

  5. Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gurarie

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

  6. Moral Guilt : An Agent-Based Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaudou , Benoit; Lorini , Emiliano; Mayor , Eunate

    2013-01-01

    International audience; In this article we analyze the influence of a concrete moral emotion (i.e. moral guilt) on strategic decision making. We present a normal form Prisoner’s Dilemma with a moral component. We assume that agents evaluate the game’s outcomes with respect to their ideality degree (i.e. how much a given outcome conforms to the player’s moral values), based on two proposed notions on ethical preferences: Harsanyi’s and Rawls’. Based on such game, we construct and agent-based m...

  7. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  8. Agent-based Algorithm for Spatial Distribution of Objects

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Nathan

    2012-06-02

    In this paper we present an agent-based algorithm for the spatial distribution of objects. The algorithm is a generalization of the bubble mesh algorithm, initially created for the point insertion stage of the meshing process of the finite element method. The bubble mesh algorithm treats objects in space as bubbles, which repel and attract each other. The dynamics of each bubble are approximated by solving a series of ordinary differential equations. We present numerical results for a meshing application as well as a graph visualization application.

  9. Web of Data Evolution by Exploiting Agent Based-Argumentation

    OpenAIRE

    Chamekh , Fatma; Boulanger , Danielle; Talens , Guilaine

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Sharing knowledge and data coming from different sources is one of the biggest advantage of linked data. Keeping this knowledge graph up to date may take in account both ontology vocabularies and data since they should be consistent. Our general problem is to deal with web of data evolution in particular: We aim at assisting user in a such complex process. In this research work, we propose an agent based-argumentation framework to help user linked data changes. We assi...

  10. A mathematical framework for agent based models of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelmann, Franziska; Murrugarra, David; Jarrah, Abdul Salam; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2011-07-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation is a useful method to study biological phenomena in a wide range of fields, from molecular biology to ecology. Since there is currently no agreed-upon standard way to specify such models, it is not always easy to use published models. Also, since model descriptions are not usually given in mathematical terms, it is difficult to bring mathematical analysis tools to bear, so that models are typically studied through simulation. In order to address this issue, Grimm et al. proposed a protocol for model specification, the so-called ODD protocol, which provides a standard way to describe models. This paper proposes an addition to the ODD protocol which allows the description of an agent-based model as a dynamical system, which provides access to computational and theoretical tools for its analysis. The mathematical framework is that of algebraic models, that is, time-discrete dynamical systems with algebraic structure. It is shown by way of several examples how this mathematical specification can help with model analysis. This mathematical framework can also accommodate other model types such as Boolean networks and the more general logical models, as well as Petri nets.

  11. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  12. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  13. Multi-agent based distributed control architecture for microgrid energy management and optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basir Khan, M. Reyasudin; Jidin, Razali; Pasupuleti, Jagadeesh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new multi-agent based distributed control architecture for energy management. • Multi-agent coordination based on non-cooperative game theory. • A microgrid model comprised of renewable energy generation systems. • Performance comparison of distributed with conventional centralized control. - Abstract: Most energy management systems are based on a centralized controller that is difficult to satisfy criteria such as fault tolerance and adaptability. Therefore, a new multi-agent based distributed energy management system architecture is proposed in this paper. The distributed generation system is composed of several distributed energy resources and a group of loads. A multi-agent system based decentralized control architecture was developed in order to provide control for the complex energy management of the distributed generation system. Then, non-cooperative game theory was used for the multi-agent coordination in the system. The distributed generation system was assessed by simulation under renewable resource fluctuations, seasonal load demand and grid disturbances. The simulation results show that the implementation of the new energy management system proved to provide more robust and high performance controls than conventional centralized energy management systems.

  14. Spatial Planning and Policy Evaluation in an Urban Conurbation: a Regional Agent-Based Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzius Stricker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies different functions and relations between 45 agglomerated municipalities in southern Switzerland (Ticino, using a territorial agent-based model. Our research adopts a bottom-up approach to urban systems, considering the agglomeration mechanism and effects of different regional and urban policies, and simulates the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city using an Agent-based model (ABM. Simulating the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time, they effectively provide a good test bed for evaluating the impact of different policies. The database is created merging the Swiss official secondary data for one reference year (2011 with Eurostat and OECD-Regpat. The results highlight that the understanding of municipalities’ functions on the territory appears to be essential for designing a solid institutional agglomeration (or city. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to improve the application of territorial ABM. Finally, our results provide a robust base to evaluate in a dynamic way various political interventions, in order to ensure a sustainable development of the agglomeration and the surrounding territories. Applying the analyses and the model on a larger scale, including further regions and conurbations, and including more indicators and variables, to obtain a more detailed and characteristic model, will constitute a further step of the research.

  15. Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

    2016-08-01

    In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

  16. Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Banisch, Sven

    2016-01-01

    This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...

  17. Strengthening Theoretical Testing in Criminology Using Agent-based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Groff, Elizabeth R

    2014-07-01

    The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency ( JRCD ) has published important contributions to both criminological theory and associated empirical tests. In this article, we consider some of the challenges associated with traditional approaches to social science research, and discuss a complementary approach that is gaining popularity-agent-based computational modeling-that may offer new opportunities to strengthen theories of crime and develop insights into phenomena of interest. Two literature reviews are completed. The aim of the first is to identify those articles published in JRCD that have been the most influential and to classify the theoretical perspectives taken. The second is intended to identify those studies that have used an agent-based model (ABM) to examine criminological theories and to identify which theories have been explored. Ecological theories of crime pattern formation have received the most attention from researchers using ABMs, but many other criminological theories are amenable to testing using such methods. Traditional methods of theory development and testing suffer from a number of potential issues that a more systematic use of ABMs-not without its own issues-may help to overcome. ABMs should become another method in the criminologists toolbox to aid theory testing and falsification.

  18. Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

    2014-09-01

    Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

  19. Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakobsson, Kristofer

    2010-05-01

    Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual

  20. Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

    2007-02-01

    Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach.

  1. MOVICLOUD: Agent-Based 3D Platform for the Labor Integration of Disabled People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto L. Barriuso

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS, used in combination with three-dimensional representation, makes it possible to do near-reality modeling and visualizations of changing and complex environments. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of a tool that integrates these two techniques. The purpose of this tool is to assist in creating a work environment that is adapted to the needs of people with disabilities. The tool measures the degree of accessibility in the place of work and identifies the architectural barriers of the environment by considering the activities carried out by workers. Thus, thanks to the use of novel mechanisms and simulation techniques more people with disabilities will have the opportunity to work and feel comfortable in the environment. To validate the developed tool, a case study was performed in a real environment.

  2. Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuto Sakamoto

    Full Text Available Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level.

  3. TOWARDS A MULTI-SCALE AGENT-BASED PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE METHODOLOGY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somogyi, Endre; Hagar, Amit; Glazier, James A

    2016-12-01

    Living tissues are dynamic, heterogeneous compositions of objects , including molecules, cells and extra-cellular materials, which interact via chemical, mechanical and electrical process and reorganize via transformation, birth, death and migration processes . Current programming language have difficulty describing the dynamics of tissues because: 1: Dynamic sets of objects participate simultaneously in multiple processes, 2: Processes may be either continuous or discrete, and their activity may be conditional, 3: Objects and processes form complex, heterogeneous relationships and structures, 4: Objects and processes may be hierarchically composed, 5: Processes may create, destroy and transform objects and processes. Some modeling languages support these concepts, but most cannot translate models into executable simulations. We present a new hybrid executable modeling language paradigm, the Continuous Concurrent Object Process Methodology ( CCOPM ) which naturally expresses tissue models, enabling users to visually create agent-based models of tissues, and also allows computer simulation of these models.

  4. Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Auke Hoekstra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.

  5. Agent-based Modelling, a new kind of research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Held, Fabian P.; Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.

    2014-01-01

    guidelines to help plan and structure the development of a theory about the causes of such a phenomenon in conjunction with a matching ABM. We argue that research about complex social phenomena is still largely fundamental research and therefore an iterative and cyclical development process of both theory......We discuss the use of Agent-based Modelling for the development and testing of theories about emergent social phenomena in marketing and the social sciences in general. We address both theoretical aspects about the types of phenomena that are suitably addressed with this approach and practical...... development. The main goal of this paper was to make research on complex social systems more accessible and help anticipate and structure the research process....

  6. Agent-Based Modeling in Molecular Systems Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soheilypour, Mohammad; Mofrad, Mohammad R K

    2018-06-08

    Molecular systems orchestrating the biology of the cell typically involve a complex web of interactions among various components and span a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Computational methods have advanced our understanding of the behavior of molecular systems by enabling us to test assumptions and hypotheses, explore the effect of different parameters on the outcome, and eventually guide experiments. While several different mathematical and computational methods are developed to study molecular systems at different spatiotemporal scales, there is still a need for methods that bridge the gap between spatially-detailed and computationally-efficient approaches. In this review, we summarize the capabilities of agent-based modeling (ABM) as an emerging molecular systems biology technique that provides researchers with a new tool in exploring the dynamics of molecular systems/pathways in health and disease. © 2018 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

  7. System-Awareness for Agent-based Power System Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Saleem, Arshad; Lind, Morten

    2010-01-01

    transition. This paper presents a concept for the representation and organization of control- and resource-allocation, enabling computational reasoning and system awareness. The principles are discussed with respect to a recently proposed Subgrid operation concept.......Operational intelligence in electric power systems is focused in a small number of control rooms that coordinate their actions. A clear division of responsibility and a command hierarchy organize system operation. With multi-agent based control systems, this control paradigm may be shifted...... to a more decentralized openaccess collaboration control paradigm. This shift cannot happen at once, but must fit also with current operation principles. In order to establish a scalable and transparent system control architecture, organizing principles have to be identified that allow for a smooth...

  8. Agent-based modeling of noncommunicable diseases: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nianogo, Roch A; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2015-03-01

    We reviewed the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), a systems science method, in understanding noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and their public health risk factors. We systematically reviewed studies in PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Sciences published from January 2003 to July 2014. We retrieved 22 relevant articles; each had an observational or interventional design. Physical activity and diet were the most-studied outcomes. Often, single agent types were modeled, and the environment was usually irrelevant to the studied outcome. Predictive validation and sensitivity analyses were most used to validate models. Although increasingly used to study NCDs, ABM remains underutilized and, where used, is suboptimally reported in public health studies. Its use in studying NCDs will benefit from clarified best practices and improved rigor to establish its usefulness and facilitate replication, interpretation, and application.

  9. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  10. Next frontier in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on automated negotiations based on multi-agent systems. It is intended for researchers and students in various fields involving autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as e-commerce tools, decision-making and negotiation support systems, and collaboration tools. The contents will help them to understand the concept of automated negotiations, negotiation protocols, negotiating agents’ strategies, and the applications of those strategies. In this book, some negotiation protocols focusing on the multiple interdependent issues in negotiations are presented, making it possible to find high-quality solutions for the complex agents’ utility functions. This book is a compilation of the extended versions of the very best papers selected from the many that were presented at the International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations.

  11. Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

    Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

  12. Engineering large-scale agent-based systems with consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokma, A.; Slade, A.; Kerridge, S.; Johnson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the consensus method for the development of large-scale agent-based systems. Systems can be developed as networks of knowledge based agents (KBA) which engage in a collaborative problem solving effort. The method provides a comprehensive and integrated approach to the development of this type of system. This includes a systematic analysis of user requirements as well as a structured approach to generating a system design which exhibits the desired functionality. There is a direct correspondence between system requirements and design components. The benefits of this approach are that requirements are traceable into design components and code thus facilitating verification. The use of the consensus method with two major test applications showed it to be successful and also provided valuable insight into problems typically associated with the development of large systems.

  13. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  14. An agent-based model for energy service companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Marguerite; Varga, Liz; Allen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An agent-based model for household energy efficiency upgrades is considered. • Energy service companies provide an alternative to traditional utility providers. • Household self-financing is a limiting factor to widespread efficiency upgrading. • Longer term service contracts can lead to reduced household energy costs. • Future energy price increases enable service providers to retain their customer base. - Abstract: The residential housing sector is a major consumer of energy accounting for approximately one third of carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Achieving a sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure necessitates a reduced and more efficient use of domestic energy supplies. Energy service companies offer an alternative to traditional providers, which supply a single utility product to satisfy the unconstrained demand of end users, and have been identified as a potentially important actor in sustainable future economies. An agent-based model is developed to examine the potential of energy service companies to contribute to the large scale upgrading of household energy efficiency, which would ultimately lead to a more sustainable and secure energy infrastructure. The migration of households towards energy service companies is described by an attractiveness array, through which potential customers can evaluate the future benefits, in terms of household energy costs, of changing provider. It is shown that self-financing is a limiting factor to the widespread upgrading of residential energy efficiency. Greater reductions in household energy costs could be achieved by committing to longer term contracts, allowing upgrade costs to be distributed over greater time intervals. A steadily increasing cost of future energy usage lends an element of stability to the market, with energy service companies displaying the ability to retain customers on contract expiration. The model highlights how a greater focus on the provision of energy services, as

  15. Agent-Based Computational Modeling of Cell Culture ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantitative characterization of cellular dose in vitro is needed for alignment of doses in vitro and in vivo. We used the agent-based software, CompuCell3D (CC3D), to provide a stochastic description of cell growth in culture. The model was configured so that isolated cells assumed a “fried egg shape” but became increasingly cuboidal with increasing confluency. The surface area presented by each cell to the overlying medium varies from cell-to-cell and is a determinant of diffusional flux of toxicant from the medium into the cell. Thus, dose varies among cells for a given concentration of toxicant in the medium. Computer code describing diffusion of H2O2 from medium into each cell and clearance of H2O2 was calibrated against H2O2 time-course data (25, 50, or 75 uM H2O2 for 60 min) obtained with the Amplex Red assay for the medium and the H2O2-sensitive fluorescent reporter, HyPer, for cytosol. Cellular H2O2 concentrations peaked at about 5 min and were near baseline by 10 min. The model predicted a skewed distribution of surface areas, with between cell variation usually 2 fold or less. Predicted variability in cellular dose was in rough agreement with the variation in the HyPer data. These results are preliminary, as the model was not calibrated to the morphology of a specific cell type. Future work will involve morphology model calibration against human bronchial epithelial (BEAS-2B) cells. Our results show, however, the potential of agent-based modeling

  16. Simulation and database society in Japanese role-playing game fandoms: Reading boys' love dōjinshi online

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy Hannah Glasspool

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Japanese video games have been characterized as typifying contemporary postmodernity in the form of simulacra, both as a media form and in terms of their extensive localization for international markets, which creates user fantasies of Japaneseness that are not linked to an authentic or original Japan. These simulations are reappropriated by fans to create new content, in this case boys' love dōjinshi, which are in turn disseminated and consumed in an English-speaking online context. Fantasy role-playing video games, which often privilege heteronormativity and binary gender norms in their goals, narratives, and aesthetics, are among the most popular texts reimagined in this way. This study considers the concepts of simulation and database societies through an examination of the ways in which artificial contours of Japaneseness are constructed in the role-playing game series Final Fantasy VII's boys' love dōjinshi fandoms, how far these fan texts develop possibilities for the deconstruction of heteronormativity, and how transnational digitized consumption methods facilitate the intersection of these phenomena.

  17. Adapting an Agent-Based Model of Socio-Technical Systems to Analyze System and Security Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    develop frameworks assisting in collaborative design[6], to built platforms for col- lecting feedback from patients for researchers in healthcare ...cyber security with simulated humans. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, 2011. [3] L...Conference, 2015. [6] J. D. Faus and F. Grimaldo. Infraworld, a multi-agent based framework to assist in civil infrastructure collaborative design. In

  18. Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Venkatramanan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects of various interventions in place. Under this setting, detailed computational models provide a comprehensive framework for integrating diverse data sources into a well-defined model of disease dynamics and social behavior, potentially leading to better understanding and actions. In this paper, we describe one such agent-based model framework developed for forecasting the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in Liberia, and subsequently used during the Ebola forecasting challenge. We describe the various components of the model, the calibration process and summarize the forecast performance across scenarios of the challenge. We conclude by highlighting how such a data-driven approach can be refined and adapted for future epidemics, and share the lessons learned over the course of the challenge. Keywords: Emerging infectious diseases, Agent-based models, Simulation optimization, Bayesian calibration, Ebola

  19. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  20. Agent-based modeling of the energy network for hybrid cars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An approach to represent and calculate multicarrier energy networks has been developed. • It provides a modeling method based on agents, for multicarrier energy networks. • It allows the system representation on a single sheet. • Energy flows circulating in the system can be observed dynamically during simulation. • The method is technology independent. - Abstract: Studies in complex energy networks devoted to the modeling of electrical power grids, were extended in previous work, where a computational multi-layered ontology, implemented using agent-based methods, was adopted. This structure is compatible with recently introduced Multiplex Networks which using Multi-linear Algebra generalize some of classical results for single-layer networks, to multilayer networks in steady state. Static results do not assist overly in understanding dynamic networks in which the values of the variables in the nodes and edges can change suddenly, driven by events, and even where new nodes or edges may appear or disappear, also because of other events. To address this gap, a computational agent-based model is developed to extend the multi-layer and multiplex approaches. In order to demonstrate the benefits of a dynamical extension, a model of the energy network in a hybrid car is presented as a case study

  1. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  2. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  3. Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksejus Kononovičius

    2013-08-01

    policy making tools in order to cope with the social transformations in the contemporary society. Originality/Value – The relationship between the inter-individual and the collective behavior is an interesting topic considered to be coming from rather different fields by many scientists. Yet the topic has received due attention only in the recent years. Consequently, the truly systematic approaches directly bridging between these two concepts are somewhat rare. These approaches also differ among themselves – some of the research groups consider questionnaires to understand the individual incentives of the humans, some suggest varying applications of the known physical models and some have roots in the behavioral economics and utility optimization. Our approach in this sense is unique as we start from a simple agentbased herding model and use the ideas from the statistical physics to obtain its macroscopic treatments for the different socio-economic scenarios. In this contribution we present our previous approaches, namely considering new product diffusion in the market and also a financial market model, and also our most recent results, related to the leadership in the social communities and predator-prey type competition in the socio-economic systems. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the correspondence between the considered simple agent-based herding model and the considered macroscopic models was not previously discussed by the other research groups. Research type: research paper.

  4. Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

    An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

  5. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  6. An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friederike Wall

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

  7. Skin Stem Cell Hypotheses and Long Term Clone Survival – Explored Using Agent-based Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Upadhyay, A. K.; Bullock, A. J.; Dicolandrea, T.; Xu, J.; Binder, R. L.; Robinson, M. K.; Finlay, D. R.; Mills, K. J.; Bascom, C. C.; Kelling, C. K.; Isfort, R. J.; Haycock, J. W.; MacNeil, S.; Smallwood, R. H.

    2013-01-01

    Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epidermis. The model simulated the growth and maintenance of the epidermis over three years. The offspring of each proliferative cell was traced. While all lineages were preserved in asymmetric division, the vast majority were lost when assuming populational asymmetry. The third hypothesis provided the most reliable mechanism for self-renewal by preserving genetic heterogeneity in quiescent stem cells, and also inherent mechanisms for skin ageing and the accumulation of genetic mutation. PMID:23712735

  8. Skin stem cell hypotheses and long term clone survival--explored using agent-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X; Upadhyay, A K; Bullock, A J; Dicolandrea, T; Xu, J; Binder, R L; Robinson, M K; Finlay, D R; Mills, K J; Bascom, C C; Kelling, C K; Isfort, R J; Haycock, J W; MacNeil, S; Smallwood, R H

    2013-01-01

    Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epidermis. The model simulated the growth and maintenance of the epidermis over three years. The offspring of each proliferative cell was traced. While all lineages were preserved in asymmetric division, the vast majority were lost when assuming populational asymmetry. The third hypothesis provided the most reliable mechanism for self-renewal by preserving genetic heterogeneity in quiescent stem cells, and also inherent mechanisms for skin ageing and the accumulation of genetic mutation.

  9. DAIDS: a Distributed, Agent-based Information Dissemination System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pete Haglich

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The Distributed Agent-Based Information Dissemination System (DAIDS concept was motivated by the need to share information among the members of a military tactical team in an atmosphere of extremely limited or intermittent bandwidth. The DAIDS approach recognizes that in many cases communications limitations will preclude the complete sharing of all tactical information between the members of the tactical team. Communications may be limited by obstructions to the line of sight between platforms; electronic warfare; or environmental conditions, or just contention from other users of that bandwidth. Since it may not be possible to achieve a complete information exchange, it is important to prioritize transmissions so the most critical information from the standpoint of the recipient is disseminated first. The challenge is to be able to determine which elements of information are the most important to each teammate. The key innovation of the DAIDS concept is the use of software proxy agents to represent the information needs of the recipient of the information. The DAIDS approach uses these proxy agents to evaluate the content of a message in accordance with the context and information needs of the recipient platform (the agent's principal and prioritize the message for dissemination. In our research we implemented this approach and demonstrated that it provides nearly a reduction in transmission times for critical tactical reports by up to a factor of 30 under severe bandwidth limitations.

  10. MAST – A Mobile Agent-based Security Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carvalho

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the chief computer security problems is not the long list of viruses and other potential vulnerabilities, but the vast number of systems that continue to be easy prey, as their system administrators or owners simply are not able to keep up with all of the available patches, updates, or needed configuration changes in order to protect them from those known vulnerabilities. Even up-to-date systems could become vulnerable to attacks, due to inappropriate configuration or combined used of applications and services. Our mobile agent-based security tool (MAST is designed to bridge this gap, and provide automated methods to make sure that all of the systems in a specific domain or network are secured and up-to-date with all patches and updates. The tool is also designed to check systems for misconfigurations that make them vulnerable. Additionally, this user interface is presented in a domain knowledge model known as a Concept Map that provides a continuous learning experience for the system administrator.

  11. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  12. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  13. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

    2016-04-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

  14. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  15. Using the Agent-Based Modeling in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The last ten years of the XX century has been the witnesses of the apparition of a new scientific field, which is usually defined as the study of “Complex adaptive systems”. This field, generic named Complexity Sciences, shares its subject, the general proprieties of complex systems across traditional disciplinary boundaries, with cybernetics and general systems theory. But the development of Complexity Sciences approaches is determined by the extensive use of Agent-Based-Models (ABM as a research tool and an emphasis on systems, such as markets, populations or ecologies, which are less integrated or “organized” than the ones, such as companies and economies, intensively studied by the traditional disciplines. For ABM, a complex system is a system of individual agents who have the freedom to act in ways that are not always totally predictable, and whose actions are interconnected such that one agent’s actions changes the context (environment for other agents. These are many examples of such complex systems: the stock market, the human body immune system, a business organization, an institution, a work-team, a family etc.

  16. Carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in China: A multi-agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Wu, Jiaqian; Yu, Lean; Bao, Qin

    2015-01-01

    To develop a low-carbon economy, China launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading (CET) in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide CET mechanism in 2015. This paper formulated a multi-agent-based model to investigate the impacts of different CET designs in order to find the most appropriate one for China. The proposed bottom-up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework. The simulation results indicate that (1) CET would effectively reduce carbon emissions, with a certain negative impact on the economy, (2) as for allowance allocation, the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate, while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive, (3) as for the carbon price, when the price level in the secondary CET market is regulated to be around RMB 40 per metric ton, a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained, (4) the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect, and (5) subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy. The results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for CET policy making and analyses. -- Highlights: •A multi-agent-based model is proposed for carbon emissions trading (CET) in China. •Three agents are included: government, firms in different sectors and households. •The impacts of CET on the economy and environment in China are analyzed. •Different CET designs are simulated to find an appropriate policy for China. •Results confirm the effectiveness of the model and give helpful insights into CET design

  17. Simulating social complexity a handbook

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    Social systems are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible and natural language approaches inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. However, individual- and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems.  Simulating Social Complexity examines all aspects of using agent- or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having each their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes these elements "social" is that they are usefully interpretable as interacting elements of an observed society. In this, the focus is on human society, but can be extended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society.  The phenom...

  18. Integrating macro and micro scale approaches in the agent-based modeling of residential dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedi, Sara

    2018-06-01

    With the advancement of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) methods as well as data collection technologies, urban dynamics modeling substantially improved over the last several decades. The complex urban dynamics processes are most effectively modeled not at the macro-scale, but following a bottom-up approach, by simulating the decisions of individual entities, or residents. Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides the key to a dynamic M&S framework that is able to integrate socioeconomic with environmental models, and to operate at both micro and macro geographical scales. In this study, a multi-agent system is proposed to simulate residential dynamics by considering spatiotemporal land use changes. In the proposed ABM, macro-scale land use change prediction is modeled by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and deployed as the agent environment and micro-scale residential dynamics behaviors autonomously implemented by household agents. These two levels of simulation interacted and jointly promoted urbanization process in an urban area of Tehran city in Iran. The model simulates the behavior of individual households in finding ideal locations to dwell. The household agents are divided into three main groups based on their income rank and they are further classified into different categories based on a number of attributes. These attributes determine the households' preferences for finding new dwellings and change with time. The ABM environment is represented by a land-use map in which the properties of the land parcels change dynamically over the simulation time. The outputs of this model are a set of maps showing the pattern of different groups of households in the city. These patterns can be used by city planners to find optimum locations for building new residential units or adding new services to the city. The simulation results show that combining macro- and micro-level simulation can give full play to the potential of the ABM to understand the driving

  19. Agent Based Modeling of Human Gut Microbiome Interactions and Perturbations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Shashkova

    Full Text Available Intestinal microbiota plays an important role in the human health. It is involved in the digestion and protects the host against external pathogens. Examination of the intestinal microbiome interactions is required for understanding of the community influence on host health. Studies of the microbiome can provide insight on methods of improving health, including specific clinical procedures for individual microbial community composition modification and microbiota correction by colonizing with new bacterial species or dietary changes.In this work we report an agent-based model of interactions between two bacterial species and between species and the gut. The model is based on reactions describing bacterial fermentation of polysaccharides to acetate and propionate and fermentation of acetate to butyrate. Antibiotic treatment was chosen as disturbance factor and used to investigate stability of the system. System recovery after antibiotic treatment was analyzed as dependence on quantity of feedback interactions inside the community, therapy duration and amount of antibiotics. Bacterial species are known to mutate and acquire resistance to the antibiotics. The ability to mutate was considered to be a stochastic process, under this suggestion ratio of sensitive to resistant bacteria was calculated during antibiotic therapy and recovery.The model confirms a hypothesis of feedbacks mechanisms necessity for providing functionality and stability of the system after disturbance. High fraction of bacterial community was shown to mutate during antibiotic treatment, though sensitive strains could become dominating after recovery. The recovery of sensitive strains is explained by fitness cost of the resistance. The model demonstrates not only quantitative dynamics of bacterial species, but also gives an ability to observe the emergent spatial structure and its alteration, depending on various feedback mechanisms. Visual version of the model shows that spatial

  20. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  1. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  2. A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

    2013-11-15

    Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second

  3. Agent Based Modeling of Atherosclerosis: A Concrete Help in Personalized Treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappalardo, Francesco; Cincotti, Alessandro; Motta, Alfredo; Pennisi, Marzio

    Atherosclerosis, a pathology affecting arterial blood vessels, is one of most common diseases of the developed countries. We present studies on the increased atherosclerosis risk using an agent based model of atherogenesis that has been previously validated using clinical data. It is well known that the major risk in atherosclerosis is the persistent high level of low density lipoprotein (LDL) concentration. However, it is not known if short period of high LDL concentration can cause irreversible damage and if reduction of the LDL concentration (either by life style or drug) can drastically or partially reduce the already acquired risk. We simulated four different clinical situations in a large set of virtual patients (200 per clinical scenario). In the first one the patients lifestyle maintains the concentration of LDL in a no risk range. This is the control case simulation. The second case is represented by patients having high level of LDL with a delay to apply appropriate treatments; The third scenario is characterized by patients with high LDL levels treated with specific drugs like statins. Finally we simulated patients that are characterized by several oxidative events (smoke, sedentary life style, assumption of alcoholic drinks and so on so forth) that effective increase the risk of LDL oxidation. Those preliminary results obviously need to be clinically investigated. It is clear, however, that SimAthero has the power to concretely help medical doctors and clinicians in choosing personalized treatments for the prevention of the atherosclerosis damages.

  4. Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mniszewski, S M; Manore, C A; Bryan, C; Del Valle, S Y; Roberts, D

    2014-07-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.

  5. Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Liquidity Mismatch in Open-End Bond Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald J. Berndt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a small-scale heterogeneous agent-based model of the US corporate bond market. The model includes a realistic micro-grounded ecology of investors that trade a set of bonds through dealers. Using the model, we simulate market dynamics that emerge from agent behaviors in response to basic exogenous factors (such as interest rate shocks and the introduction of regulatory policies and constraints. A first experiment focuses on the liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds and investigates the conditions under which redemption-driven bond sales may trigger market instability. We simulate the effects of increasing mutual fund market shares in the presence of market-wide repricing of risk (in the form of a 100 basis point increase in the expected returns. The simulations highlight robust-yet-fragile aspects of the growing liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds, with an inflection point beyond which redemption-driven negative feedback loops trigger market instability.

  6. Carbon allowance auction design of China's emissions trading scheme: A multi-agent-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Wu, Jiaqian; Yu, Lean; Bao, Qin

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, a multi-agent-based ETS simulation model is proposed for carbon allowance auction design in China. In the proposed model, two main agents, i.e., the government (the ETS implementer) and the firms in different sectors (the ETS targets), are considered. Under the ETS policy, all agents make various decisions individually according to their own goals, and interact with each other through three main markets: the commodity market, the primary carbon auction market and the secondary carbon trading market. Different popular auction designs are introduced into the ETS formulation to offer helpful insights into China's ETS design. (1) Generally, the ETS would lead to positive effects on China's carbon mitigation and energy structure improvement, but a negative impact on economy. (2) As for auction forms, the uniform-price design is relatively moderate, while the discriminative-price design is quite aggressive in both economic damage and emissions reduction. (3) As for carbon price, the uniform-price auction might generate a slightly higher market clearing price than the discriminative-price auction, and the prices under two auction rules fluctuate about RMB 40 per metric ton. (4) As for carbon cap, the total allowances in the carbon auction market should be carefully set to well balance economic growth and mitigation effect. - Highlights: • A multi-agent-based model is proposed for China's emissions trading scheme (ETS). • Two main economic agents are included: government and firms in different sectors. • Auction-based allocation for initial carbon allowances is especially investigated. • Economic and environmental impacts of different auction designs are analyzed. • Results confirm the validity of the model and give helpful insights into ETS design.

  7. Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2010-02-18

    Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve

  8. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  9. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Tan, Lei

    2013-01-01

    For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key parameters can be applied to other complex

  10. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Jie Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. METHODS: To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. RESULTS: With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. CONCLUSIONS: We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the

  11. A Novel Framework for Characterizing Exposure-Related Behaviors Using Agent-Based Models Embedded with Needs-Based Artificial Intelligence (CSSSA2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descriptions of where and how individuals spend their time are important for characterizing exposures to chemicals in consumer products and in indoor environments. Herein we create an agent-based model (ABM) that is able to simulate longitudinal patterns in behaviors. By basing o...

  12. The comparison of the use of holonic and agent-based methods in modelling of manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foit, K.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Hryniewicz, P.

    2017-08-01

    The rapid evolution in the field of industrial automation and manufacturing is often called the 4th Industry Revolution. Worldwide availability of the internet access contributes to the competition between manufacturers, gives the opportunity for buying materials, parts and for creating the partnership networks, like cloud manufacturing, grid manufacturing (MGrid), virtual enterprises etc. The effect of the industry evolution is the need to search for new solutions in the field of manufacturing systems modelling and simulation. During the last decade researchers have developed the agent-based approach of modelling. This methodology have been taken from the computer science, but was adapted to the philosophy of industrial automation and robotization. The operation of the agent-based system depends on the simultaneous acting of different agents that may have different roles. On the other hand, there is the holon-based approach that uses the structures created by holons. It differs from the agent-based structure in some aspects, while the other ones are quite similar in both methodologies. The aim of this paper is to present the both methodologies and discuss the similarities and the differences. This may could help to select the optimal method of modelling, according to the considered problem and software resources.

  13. Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Pizzitutti

    Full Text Available Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.

  14. Out of the net: An agent-based model to study human movements influence on local-scale malaria transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Feingold, Beth; Zaitchik, Ben; Álvarez, Carlos A; Mena, Carlos F

    2018-01-01

    Though malaria control initiatives have markedly reduced malaria prevalence in recent decades, global eradication is far from actuality. Recent studies show that environmental and social heterogeneities in low-transmission settings have an increased weight in shaping malaria micro-epidemiology. New integrated and more localized control strategies should be developed and tested. Here we present a set of agent-based models designed to study the influence of local scale human movements on local scale malaria transmission in a typical Amazon environment, where malaria is transmission is low and strongly connected with seasonal riverine flooding. The agent-based simulations show that the overall malaria incidence is essentially not influenced by local scale human movements. In contrast, the locations of malaria high risk spatial hotspots heavily depend on human movements because simulated malaria hotspots are mainly centered on farms, were laborers work during the day. The agent-based models are then used to test the effectiveness of two different malaria control strategies both designed to reduce local scale malaria incidence by targeting hotspots. The first control scenario consists in treat against mosquito bites people that, during the simulation, enter at least once inside hotspots revealed considering the actual sites where human individuals were infected. The second scenario involves the treatment of people entering in hotspots calculated assuming that the infection sites of every infected individual is located in the household where the individual lives. Simulations show that both considered scenarios perform better in controlling malaria than a randomized treatment, although targeting household hotspots shows slightly better performance.

  15. Agent-based inter-organizational systems in advanced logistics operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Wasesa (Meditya)

    2017-01-01

    textabstract“Agent-based Inter-organizational Systems (ABIOS) in Advanced Logistics Operations” explores the concepts, the design, and the role and impact of agent-based systems to improve coordination and performance of logistics operations. The dissertation consists of one conceptual study and

  16. An Agent Based Modelling Approach for Multi-Stakeholder Analysis of City Logistics Solutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anand, N.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for multi-stakeholder analysis of city logistics solutions using agent based modeling. The framework describes different stages for the systematic development of an agent based model for the city logistics domain. The framework includes a

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of an Agent-Based Model of Culture's Consequences for Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, S.L.G.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Hofstede, G.J.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of an agent-based model’s sensitivity to changes in parameters that describe the agents’ cultural background, relational parameters, and parameters of the decision functions. As agent-based models may be very sensitive to small changes in parameter values, it is of

  18. Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: challenges and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Filatova, T.; Verburg, P.H.; Parker, D.C.; Stannard, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Departing from the comprehensive reviews carried out in the field, we identify the key challenges that agent-based methodology faces when modeling coupled socio-ecological systems. Focusing primarily on the papers presented in this thematic issue, we review progress in spatial agent-based models

  19. In Defense of Agent-Based Virtue Ethics | Van Zyl | Philosophical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In 'Against agent-based virtue ethics' (2004) Michael Brady rejects agent-based virtue ethics on the grounds that it fails to capture the commonsense distinction between an agent's doing the right thing, and her doing it for the right reason. In his view, the failure to account for this distinction has paradoxical results, making it ...

  20. A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Barbieri, Alisson; Miranda, J Jaime; Feingold, Beth; Guedes, Gilvan R; Alarcon-Valenzuela, Javiera; Mena, Carlos F

    2015-12-22

    The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.

  1. Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

  2. An Agent-Based Approach To Nodes Misbehaviour Detection In Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otor Samera U.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Existing Misbehaviour Detection Systems in Mobile Ad-hoc Networks MANETs are challenged with routing overhead and high latency resulting from complexity and failure to isolate and block misbehaving nodes for the reason that it is difficult to detect them as they participate fully in route finding. In this work a Mobile Agent-Based Acknowledgement scheme MAACK was formulated to address this problem using an object oriented algorithm deployed to report misbehaving nodes to the source and destination by registering the Internet Protocol IP address of misbehaving nodes in their header. The scheme was simulated using Network Simulator-3 NS-3 and results benchmarked with an existing scheme the Enhanced Adaptive Acknowledgment EAACK using packet delivery ratio routing overhead and latency as performance metrics in the two scenarios. The results showed that the MAACK paradigm guaranteed a higher packet delivery ratio lower latency and routing overhead than the EAACK scheme. The model can be adapted by Ad-Hoc network protocol developers.

  3. Connectionist agent-based learning in bank-run decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weihong; Huang, Qiao

    2018-05-01

    It is of utter importance for the policy makers, bankers, and investors to thoroughly understand the probability of bank-run (PBR) which was often neglected in the classical models. Bank-run is not merely due to miscoordination (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983) or deterioration of bank assets (Allen and Gale, 1998) but various factors. This paper presents the simulation results of the nonlinear dynamic probabilities of bank runs based on the global games approach, with the distinct assumption that heterogenous agents hold highly correlated but unidentical beliefs about the true payoffs. The specific technique used in the simulation is to let agents have an integrated cognitive-affective network. It is observed that, even when the economy is good, agents are significantly affected by the cognitive-affective network to react to bad news which might lead to bank-run. Both the rise of the late payoffs, R, and the early payoffs, r, will decrease the effect of the affective process. The increased risk sharing might or might not increase PBR, and the increase in late payoff is beneficial for preventing the bank run. This paper is one of the pioneers that links agent-based computational economics and behavioral economics.

  4. An agent-based model for emotion contagion and competition in online social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Rui; Xu, Ke; Zhao, Jichang

    2018-04-01

    Recent studies suggest that human emotions diffuse in not only real-world communities but also online social media. However, a comprehensive model that considers up-to-date findings and multiple online social media mechanisms is still missing. To bridge this vital gap, an agent-based model, which concurrently considers emotion influence and tie strength preferences, is presented to simulate the emotion contagion and competition. Our model well reproduces patterns observed in the empirical data, like anger's preference on weak ties, anger-dominated users' high vitalities and angry tweets' short retweet intervals, and anger's competitiveness in negative events. The comparison with a previously presented baseline model further demonstrates its effectiveness in modeling online emotion contagion. It is also surprisingly revealed by our model that as the ratio of anger approaches joy with a gap less than 12%, anger will eventually dominate the online social media and arrives the collective outrage in the cyber space. The critical gap disclosed here can be indeed warning signals at early stages for outrage control. Our model would shed lights on the study of multiple issues regarding emotion contagion and competition in terms of computer simulations.

  5. A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Berger, Uta; Bastiansen, Finn; Eliassen, Sigrunn; Ginot, Vincent; Giske, Jarl; Goss-Custard, John; Grand, Tamara; Heinz, Simone K.; Huse, Geir; Huth, Andreas; Jepsen, Jane U.; Jorgensen, Christian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Muller, Birgit; Pe'er, Guy; Piou, Cyril; Railsback, Steven F.; Robbins, Andrew M.; Robbins, Martha M.; Rossmanith, Eva; Ruger, Nadja; Strand, Espen; Souissi, Sami; Stillman, Richard A.; Vabo, Rune; Visser, Ute; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2006-01-01

    Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs. Once initiated, the protocol will hopefully evolve as it becomes used by a sufficiently large proportion of modellers.

  6. Robotic surgery training with commercially available simulation systems in 2011: a current review and practice pattern survey from the society of urologic robotic surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallas, Costas D; Davis, John W

    2012-03-01

    Virtual reality (VR) simulation has the potential to standardize surgical training for robotic surgery. We sought to evaluate all commercially available VR robotic simulators. A MEDLINE(®) literature search was performed of all applicable keywords. Available VR simulators were evaluated with regard to face, content, and construct validation. Additionally, a survey was e-mailed to all members of the Endourological Society, querying the pervasiveness of VR simulators in robotic surgical training. Finally, each company was e-mailed to ask for a price quote for their respective system. There are four VR robotic surgical simulators currently available: RoSS™, dV-Trainer™, SEP Robot™, and da Vinci(®) Skills Simulator™. Each system is represented in the literature and all possess varying degrees of face, content, and construct validity. Although all systems have basic skill sets with performance analysis and metrics software, most do not contain procedural components. When evaluating the results of our survey, most respondents did not possess a VR simulator although almost all believed there to be great potential for these devices in robotic surgical training. With the exception of the SEP Robot, all VR simulators are similar in price. VR simulators have a definite role in the future of robotic surgical training. Although the simulators target technical components of training, their largest impact will be appreciated when incorporated into a comprehensive educational curriculum.

  7. A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

  8. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Reducing Moose-Vehicle Collisions through Salt Pool Removal and Displacement: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. Grosman; Jochen A. G. Jaeger; Pascale M. Biron; Christian Dussault; Jean-Pierre Ouellet

    2009-01-01

    Between 1990 and 2002, more than 200 moose-vehicle collisions occurred each year in Quebec, including about 50/yr in the Laurentides Wildlife Reserve. One cause is the presence of roadside salt pools that attract moose near roads in the spring and summer. Using the computer simulation technique of agent-based modeling, this study investigated whether salt pool removal and displacement, i.e., a compensatory salt pool set up 100 to 1500 m away from the road shoulder, would reduce the number of ...

  10. Opening the black box—Development, testing and documentation of a mechanistically rich agent-based model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Chris J.; Høye, Toke; Olesen, Carsten Riis

    2010-01-01

    Although increasingly widely used in biology, complex adaptive simulation models such as agent-based models have been criticised for being difficult to communicate and test. This study demonstrates the application of pattern-oriented model testing, and a novel documentation procedure to present...... accessible description of the processes included in the model. Application of the model to a comprehensive historical data set supported the hypothesis that interference competition is the primary population regulating factor in the absence of mammal predators in the brown hare, and that the effect works...

  11. The architectural foundations for agent-based shop floor control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langer, Gilad; Bilberg, Arne

    1998-01-01

    simulation and cell controlenabling technologies. In order to continuethis research effortnew concepts and theories for shop floor control are investigated.This paper reviews the multi-agent concept aimed at investigatingits potential use in shop floor control systems. The paper willalso include a survey...

  12. An agent-based model for diffusion of electric vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kangur, A.; Bockarjova, M.; Jager, W.; Verbrugge, R.

    2017-01-01

    The transition from fuel cars to electric cars is a large-scale process involving many interactions between consumers and other stakeholders over decades. To explore how policies may interfere with consumer behavior over such a long time period, we developed a social simulation model. In this model,

  13. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  14. Case Study for the Return on Investment of Internet of Things Using Agent-Based Modelling and Data Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Houston

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As technology advances towards new paradigms such as the Internet of Things, there is a desire among business leaders for a reliable method to determine the value of supporting these ventures. Traditional simulation and analysis techniques cannot model the complex systems inherent in fields such as infrastructure asset management, or suffer from a lack of data on which to build a prediction. Agent-based modelling, through an integration with data science, presents an attractive simulation method to capture these underlying complexities and provide a solution. The aim of this work is to investigate this integration as a refined process for answering practical business questions. A specific case study is addressed to assess the return on investment of installing condition monitoring sensors on lift assets in a London Underground station. An agent-based model is developed for this purpose, supported by analysis from historical data. The simulation results demonstrate how returns can be achieved and highlight features induced as a result of stochasticity in the model. Suggestions of future research paths are additionally outlined.

  15. [Identification with an ingroup and a super-ordinate group and support provision toward outgroups: an examination in a simulated society game].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasawa, Kaori

    2002-04-01

    This study examined the determinants of attitudes toward intergroup support. The data was collected from the participants of a simulated society game (SIMINSOC; Hirose, 1997). The global society in the game includes rich and poor regions, and the poor regions need to obtain support from rich regions for survival. One hundred and thirty-two participants were randomly assigned to either rich or poor regions and were engaged in various activities in the game. The level of ingroup identity was manipulated by facilitating group activities in some groups but no in others. Then they answered questions regarding the identification, attributions of responsibility, and attitude toward support provision. The results indicated that the identification toward the ingroup increased attribution bias. Furthermore, the identification toward the global society increased the intent to provide support among those from the rich regions. The discussion considered the importance of including intergroup variables in the attributional approach to support provision.

  16. Agent-Based Coordination Model for Designing Transportation Applications

    OpenAIRE

    BADEIG, F; BALBO, F; SCEMAMA, G; ZARGAYOUNA, M

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an environment-centered approach to design multi-agent solutions to transportation problems. Based on the Property-based Coordination Principle (PbC), the objective of our approach is to solve three recurrent issues in the design of these solutions: the knowledge problem, the space-time dimension and the dynamics of the real environment. To demonstrate the benefits of our approach, two completely different applications, a demand-responsive transportation system and a simul...

  17. Agent-based self-service technology adoption model for air-travelers: Exploring best operational practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueda, Keiichi; Kurahashi, Setsuya

    2018-02-01

    The continuous development of the service economy and an aging society with fewer children is expected to lead to a shortage of workers in the near future. In addition, the growth of the service economy would require service providers to meet various service requirements. In this regard, self-service technology (SST) is a promising alternative to securing labor in both developed and emerging countries. SST is expected to coordinate the controllable productive properties in order to optimize resources and minimize consumer stress. As services are characterized by simultaneity and inseparability, a smoother operation in cooperation with the consumer is required to provide a certain level of service. This study focuses on passenger handling in an airport departure lobby with the objective of optimizing multiple service resources comprising interpersonal service staff and self-service kiosks. Our aim is to elucidate the passenger decision- making mechanism of choosing either interpersonal service or self-service as the check-in option, and to apply it to analyze several scenarios to determine the best practice. The experimental space is studied and an agent-based model is proposed to analyze the operational efficiency via a simulation. We expand on a previous SST adoption model, which is enhanced by introducing the concept of individual traits. We focus on the decision-making of individuals who are neutral toward the service option, by tracking the actual activity of passengers and mapping their behavior into the model. A new method of validation that follows a different approach is proposed to ensure that this model approximates real-world situations. A scenario analysis is then carried out with the aim of exploring the best operational practice to minimize the stress experienced by the air travelers and to meet the business needs of the airline managers at the airport. We collected actual data from the Departure Control System of an airline to map the real-world data

  18. Agent-Based Self-Service Technology Adoption Model for Air-Travelers: Exploring Best Operational Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiichi Ueda

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The continuous development of the service economy and an aging society with fewer children is expected to lead to a shortage of workers in the near future. In addition, the growth of the service economy would require service providers to meet various service requirements. In this regard, self-service technology (SST is a promising alternative to securing labor in both developed and emerging countries. SST is expected to coordinate the controllable productive properties in order to optimize resources and minimize consumer stress. As services are characterized by simultaneity and inseparability, a smoother operation in cooperation with the consumer is required to provide a certain level of service. This study focuses on passenger handling in an airport departure lobby with the objective of optimizing multiple service resources comprising interpersonal service staff and self-service kiosks. Our aim is to elucidate the passenger decision-making mechanism of choosing either interpersonal service or self-service as the check-in option, and to apply it to analyze several scenarios to determine the best practice. The experimental space is studied and an agent-based model is proposed to analyze the operational efficiency via a simulation. We expand on a previous SST adoption model, which is enhanced by introducing the concept of individual traits. We focus on the decision-making of individuals who are neutral toward the service option, by tracking the actual activity of passengers and mapping their behavior into the model. A new method of validation that follows a different approach is proposed to ensure that this model approximates real-world situations. A scenario analysis is then carried out with the aim of exploring the best operational practice to minimize the stress experienced by the air travelers and to meet the business needs of the airline managers at the airport. We collected actual data from the Departure Control System of an airline to map

  19. Advances in social simulation 2015

    CERN Document Server

    Verbrugge, Rineke; Flache, Andreas; Roo, Gert; Hoogduin, Lex; Hemelrijk, Charlotte

    2017-01-01

    This book highlights recent developments in the field, presented at the Social Simulation 2015 conference in Groningen, The Netherlands. It covers advances both in applications and methods of social simulation. Societal issues addressed range across complexities in economic systems, opinion dynamics and civil violence, changing mobility patterns, different land-use, transition in the energy system, food production and consumption, ecosystem management and historical processes. Methodological developments cover how to use empirical data in validating models in general, formalization of behavioral theory in agent behavior, construction of artificial populations for experimentation, replication of models, and agent-based models that can be run in a web browser. Social simulation is a rapidly evolving field. Social scientists are increasingly interested in social simulation as a tool to tackle the complex non-linear dynamics of society. Furthermore, the software and hardware tools available for social simulation ...

  20. The potential of agent-based modelling for verification of people trajectories based on smartphone sensor data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillen, F; Ehlers, M; Höfle, B; Reinartz, P

    2014-01-01

    In this paper the potential of smartphone sensor data for verification of people trajectories derived from airborne remote sensing data are investigated and discussed based on simulated test recordings in the city of Osnabrueck, Germany. For this purpose, the airborne imagery is simulated by images taken from a high building with a typical single lens reflex camera. The smartphone data required for the analysis of the potential is simultaneously recorded by test persons on the ground. In a second step, the quality of the smartphone sensor data is evaluated regarding the integration into simulation and modelling approaches. In this context we studied the potential of the agent-based modelling technique concerning the verification of people trajectories

  1. A Multiscale Agent-Based in silico Model of Liver Fibrosis Progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta [Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Center for Inflammation and Regenerative Modeling, McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Solovyev, Alexey [Center for Inflammation and Regenerative Modeling, McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Mathematics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Mi, Qi [Center for Inflammation and Regenerative Modeling, McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Sports Medicine and Nutrition, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Nishikawa, Taichiro [McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro [McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Pathology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Thomas E. Starzl Transplantation Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Fox, Ira J. [McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Department of Surgery, Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Thomas E. Starzl Transplantation Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Vodovotz, Yoram, E-mail: vodovotzy@upmc.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Center for Inflammation and Regenerative Modeling, McGowan Institute for Regenerative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2014-05-30

    Chronic hepatic inflammation involves a complex interplay of inflammatory and mechanical influences, ultimately manifesting in a characteristic histopathology of liver fibrosis. We created an agent-based model (ABM) of liver tissue in order to computationally examine the consequence of liver inflammation. Our liver fibrosis ABM (LFABM) is comprised of literature-derived rules describing molecular and histopathological aspects of inflammation and fibrosis in a section of chemically injured liver. Hepatocytes are modeled as agents within hexagonal lobules. Injury triggers an inflammatory reaction, which leads to activation of local Kupffer cells and recruitment of monocytes from circulation. Portal fibroblasts and hepatic stellate cells are activated locally by the products of inflammation. The various agents in the simulation are regulated by above-threshold concentrations of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and damage-associated molecular pattern molecules. The simulation progresses from chronic inflammation to collagen deposition, exhibiting periportal fibrosis followed by bridging fibrosis, and culminating in disruption of the regular lobular structure. The ABM exhibited key histopathological features observed in liver sections from rats treated with carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}). An in silico “tension test” for the hepatic lobules predicted an overall increase in tissue stiffness, in line with clinical elastography literature and published studies in CCl{sub 4}-treated rats. Therapy simulations suggested differential anti-fibrotic effects of neutralizing tumor necrosis factor alpha vs. enhancing M2 Kupffer cells. We conclude that a computational model of liver inflammation on a structural skeleton of physical forces can recapitulate key histopathological and macroscopic properties of CCl{sub 4}-injured liver. This multiscale approach linking molecular and chemomechanical stimuli enables a model that could be used to gain translationally relevant

  2. A Multiscale Agent-Based in silico Model of Liver Fibrosis Progression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Solovyev, Alexey; Mi, Qi; Nishikawa, Taichiro; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro; Fox, Ira J.; Vodovotz, Yoram

    2014-01-01

    Chronic hepatic inflammation involves a complex interplay of inflammatory and mechanical influences, ultimately manifesting in a characteristic histopathology of liver fibrosis. We created an agent-based model (ABM) of liver tissue in order to computationally examine the consequence of liver inflammation. Our liver fibrosis ABM (LFABM) is comprised of literature-derived rules describing molecular and histopathological aspects of inflammation and fibrosis in a section of chemically injured liver. Hepatocytes are modeled as agents within hexagonal lobules. Injury triggers an inflammatory reaction, which leads to activation of local Kupffer cells and recruitment of monocytes from circulation. Portal fibroblasts and hepatic stellate cells are activated locally by the products of inflammation. The various agents in the simulation are regulated by above-threshold concentrations of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and damage-associated molecular pattern molecules. The simulation progresses from chronic inflammation to collagen deposition, exhibiting periportal fibrosis followed by bridging fibrosis, and culminating in disruption of the regular lobular structure. The ABM exhibited key histopathological features observed in liver sections from rats treated with carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ). An in silico “tension test” for the hepatic lobules predicted an overall increase in tissue stiffness, in line with clinical elastography literature and published studies in CCl 4 -treated rats. Therapy simulations suggested differential anti-fibrotic effects of neutralizing tumor necrosis factor alpha vs. enhancing M2 Kupffer cells. We conclude that a computational model of liver inflammation on a structural skeleton of physical forces can recapitulate key histopathological and macroscopic properties of CCl 4 -injured liver. This multiscale approach linking molecular and chemomechanical stimuli enables a model that could be used to gain translationally relevant insights into

  3. Is the whole the sum of its parts? Agent-based modelling of wastewater treatment systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, A J; Majed, N; Bucci, V; Hellweger, F L; Tu, Y; Gu, A Z

    2011-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABMS) simulate individual units within a system, such as the bacteria in a biological wastewater treatment system. This paper outlines past, current and potential future applications of ABMs to wastewater treatment. ABMs track heterogeneities within microbial populations, and this has been demonstrated to yield different predictions of bulk behaviors than the conventional, "lumped" approaches for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) completely mixed reactors systems. Current work included the application of the ABM approach to bacterial adaptation/evolution, using the model system of individual EBPR bacteria that are allowed to evolve a kinetic parameter (maximum glycogen storage) in a competitive environment. The ABM approach was successfully implemented to a simple anaerobic-aerobic system and it was found the differing initial states converged to the same optimal solution under uncertain hydraulic residence times associated with completely mixed hydraulics. In another study, an ABM was developed and applied to simulate the heterogeneity in intracellular polymer storage compounds, including polyphosphate (PP), in functional microbial populations in enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) process. The simulation results were compared to the experimental measurements of single-cell abundance of PP in polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs), performed using Raman microscopy. The model-predicted heterogeneity was generally consistent with observations, and it was used to investigate the relative contribution of external (different life histories) and internal (biological) mechanisms leading to heterogeneity. In the future, ABMs could be combined with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to understand incomplete mixing, more intracellular states and mechanisms can be incorporated, and additional experimental verification is needed.

  4. Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy H. Auchincloss

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

  5. Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

    2015-11-01

    There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

  6. A Multi Agent Based Approach for Prehospital Emergency Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safdari, Reza; Shoshtarian Malak, Jaleh; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Danesh Shahraki, Azimeh

    2017-07-01

    To demonstrate an architecture to automate the prehospital emergency process to categorize the specialized care according to the situation at the right time for reducing the patient mortality and morbidity. Prehospital emergency process were analyzed using existing prehospital management systems, frameworks and the extracted process were modeled using sequence diagram in Rational Rose software. System main agents were identified and modeled via component diagram, considering the main system actors and by logically dividing business functionalities, finally the conceptual architecture for prehospital emergency management was proposed. The proposed architecture was simulated using Anylogic simulation software. Anylogic Agent Model, State Chart and Process Model were used to model the system. Multi agent systems (MAS) had a great success in distributed, complex and dynamic problem solving environments, and utilizing autonomous agents provides intelligent decision making capabilities.  The proposed architecture presents prehospital management operations. The main identified agents are: EMS Center, Ambulance, Traffic Station, Healthcare Provider, Patient, Consultation Center, National Medical Record System and quality of service monitoring agent. In a critical condition like prehospital emergency we are coping with sophisticated processes like ambulance navigation health care provider and service assignment, consultation, recalling patients past medical history through a centralized EHR system and monitoring healthcare quality in a real-time manner. The main advantage of our work has been the multi agent system utilization. Our Future work will include proposed architecture implementation and evaluation of its impact on patient quality care improvement.

  7. Use of agent-based modelling in emergency management under a range of flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Life Safety Model (LSM was developed some 15 years ago, originally for dam break assessments and for informing reservoir evacuation and emergency plans. Alongside other technological developments, the model has evolved into a very useful agent-based tool, with many applications for a range of hazards and receptor behaviour. HR Wallingford became involved in its use in 2006, and is now responsible for its technical development and commercialisation. Over the past 10 years the model has been applied to a range of flood hazards, including coastal surge, river flood, dam failure and tsunami, and has been verified against historical events. Commercial software licences are being used in Canada, Italy, Malaysia and Australia. A core group of LSM users and analysts has been specifying and delivering a programme of model enhancements. These include improvements to traffic behaviour at intersections, new algorithms for sheltering in high-rise buildings, and the addition of monitoring points to allow detailed analysis of vehicle and pedestrian movement. Following user feedback, the ability of LSM to handle large model ‘worlds’ and hydrodynamic meshes has been improved. Recent developments include new documentation, performance enhancements, better logging of run-time events and bug fixes. This paper describes some of the recent developments and summarises some of the case study applications, including dam failure analysis in Japan and mass evacuation simulation in England.

  8. Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ting; Li, Honggang

    2013-09-01

    Credit trading, or leverage trading, which includes buying on margin and selling short, plays an important role in financial markets, where agents tend to increase their leverages for increased profits. This paper presents an agent-based asset market model to study the effect of the permissive leverage level on traders’ wealth and overall market indicators. In this model, heterogeneous agents can assume fundamental value-converging expectations or trend-persistence expectations, and their effective demands of assets depend both on demand willingness and wealth constraints, where leverage can relieve the wealth constraints to some extent. The asset market price is determined by a market maker, who watches the market excess demand, and is influenced by noise factors. By simulations, we examine market results for different leverage ratios. At the individual level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences agents’ wealth accumulation. At the market level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences changes in the asset price, volatility, and trading volume. Qualitatively, our model provides some meaningful results supported by empirical facts. More importantly, we find a continuous phase transition as we increase the leverage threshold, which may provide a further prospective of credit trading.

  9. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-02-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

  10. Towards an Agent Based Framework for Modelling Smart Self-Sustainable Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Tomičić

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Self-sustainability is a property of a system; a system is considered to be self-sustainable if it can sustain itself without external support in an observed period of time. If this property is mapped to a human settlement in context of resources (water, energy, food, etc., it would describe a human settlement which is independent of external resources (like the national electrical grid or a central water distribution system, where such external resources are either not available, or not desirable. This article contributes to presenting the state-of-the-art overview of self-sustainability-related research. While self-sustainability as in the above described form was not a direct subject of research, there are several fields which are either related to, or could be of significant value to the self-sustainability research in this context. The extensive literature overview also showed no frameworks for modeling self sustainable systems in the context of human settlements. Herein a motivation for using agent-based modeling and simulation techniques will be given.

  11. A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Noah; Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

  12. Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poza, David J; Santos, José I; Galán, José M; López-Paredes, Adolfo

    2011-03-09

    The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders.

  13. Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Poza

    Full Text Available The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders.

  14. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  15. An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

  16. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  17. Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom-up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lye, Ribin; Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2012-11-01

    We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N independent traders buy and sell M stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction fb of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction fs of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.

  18. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  19. AN AGENT BASED TRANSACTION PROCESSING SCHEME FOR DISCONNECTED MOBILE NODES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.L. Walter Jeyakumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a mobile transaction framework in which mobile users can share data which is stored in the cache of a mobile agent. This mobile agent is a special mobile node which coordinates the sharing process. The proposed framework allows mobile affiliation work groups to be formed dynamically with a mobile agent and mobile hosts. Using short range wireless communication technology, mobile users can simultaneously access the data from the cache of the mobile agent. The data Access Manager module at the mobile agent enforces concurrency control using cache invalidation technique. This model supports disconnected mobile computing allowing mobile agent to move along with the Mobile Hosts. The proposed Transaction frame work has been simulated in Java 2 and performance of this scheme is compared with existing frame works.

  20. New Trends in Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin; Fatima, Shaheen; Matsuo, Tokuro

    2012-01-01

    Complex Automated Negotiations represent an important, emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. Automated negotiations can be complex, since there are a lot of factors that characterize such negotiations. These factors include the number of issues, dependencies between these issues,  representation of utilities, the negotiation protocol, the number of parties in the negotiation (bilateral or multi-party), time constraints, etc. Software agents can support automation or simulation of such complex negotiations on the behalf of their owners, and can provide them with efficient bargaining strategies. To realize such a complex automated negotiation, we have to incorporate advanced Artificial Intelligence technologies includes search, CSP, graphical utility models, Bayes nets, auctions, utility graphs, predicting and learning methods. Applications could include e-commerce tools, decision-making support tools, negotiation support tools, collaboration tools, etc. This book aims to pro...

  1. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

    2011-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

  2. Agent-based game theory modeling for driverless vehicles at intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    This report presents three research efforts that were published in various journals. The first research effort presents a reactive-driving agent based algorithm for modeling driver left turn gap acceptance behavior at signalized intersections. This m...

  3. Practicality of Agent-Based Modeling of Civil Violence: an Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Thron, Christopher; Jackson, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Joshua Epstein (2002) proposed a simple agent-based model to describe the formation and evolution of spontaneous civil violence (such as riots or violent demonstrations). In this paper we study the practical applicability of Epstein's model.

  4. Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams. Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-12

    Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling Tristan E. Johnson, Ph.D. Learning ...REPORT DATE AUG 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategies to Enhance Online Learning ...TeamsTeam Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams: Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

  5. Conceptual Framework for Agent-Based Modeling of Customer-Oriented Supply Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Solano-Vanegas , Clara ,; Carrillo-Ramos , Angela; Montoya-Torres , Jairo ,

    2015-01-01

    Part 3: Collaboration Frameworks; International audience; Supply Networks (SN) are complex systems involving the interaction of different actors, very often, with different objectives and goals. Among the different existing modeling approaches, agent-based systems can properly represent the autonomous behavior of SN links and, simultaneously, observe the general response of the system as a result of individual actions. Most of research using agent-based modeling in SN focuses on production is...

  6. Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Zhang; David Levinson; Shanjiang Zhu

    2007-01-01

    Using consistent agent-based techniques, this research models the decision-making processes of users and infrastructure owner/operators to explore the welfare consequence of price competition, capacity choice, and product differentiation on congested transportation networks. Component models include: (1) An agent-based travel demand model wherein each traveler has learning capabilities and unique characteristics (e.g. value of time); (2) Econometric facility provision cost models; and (3) Rep...

  7. Multi-Equilibria Regulation Agent-Based Model of Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Koulouris

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the Multiple Equilibria Regulation (MER model, i.e., an agent-based simulation model, to represent opinion dynamics in social networks. It relies on a small set of micro-prerequisites (intra-individual balance and confidence bound, leading to emergence of (nonstationary macro-outcomes. These outcomes may refer to consensus, polarization or fragmentation of opinions about taxation (e.g., congestion pricing or other policy measures, according to the way communication is structured. In contrast with other models of opinion dynamics, it allows for the impact of both the regulation of intra-personal discrepancy and the interpersonal variability of opinions on social learning and network dynamics. Several simulation experiments are presented to demonstrate, through the MER model, the role of different network structures (complete, star, cellular automata, small-world and random graphs on opinion formation dynamics and the overall evolution of the system. The findings can help to identify specific topological characteristics, such as density, number of neighbourhoods and critical nodes-agents, that affect the stability and system dynamics. This knowledge can be used to better organize the information diffusion and learning in the community, enhance the predictability of outcomes and manage possible conflicts. It is shown that a small-world organization, which depicts more realistic aspects of real-life and virtual social systems, provides increased predictability and stability towards a less fragmented and more manageable grouping of opinions, compared to random networks. Such macro-level organizations may be enhanced with use of web-based technologies to increase the density of communication and public acceptability of policy measures.

  8. Optimization and Control of Agent-Based Models in Biology: A Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, G; Fitzpatrick, B G; Christley, S; Federico, P; Kanarek, A; Neilan, R Miller; Oremland, M; Salinas, R; Laubenbacher, R; Lenhart, S

    2017-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABMs) have become an increasingly important mode of inquiry for the life sciences. They are particularly valuable for systems that are not understood well enough to build an equation-based model. These advantages, however, are counterbalanced by the difficulty of analyzing and using ABMs, due to the lack of the type of mathematical tools available for more traditional models, which leaves simulation as the primary approach. As models become large, simulation becomes challenging. This paper proposes a novel approach to two mathematical aspects of ABMs, optimization and control, and it presents a few first steps outlining how one might carry out this approach. Rather than viewing the ABM as a model, it is to be viewed as a surrogate for the actual system. For a given optimization or control problem (which may change over time), the surrogate system is modeled instead, using data from the ABM and a modeling framework for which ready-made mathematical tools exist, such as differential equations, or for which control strategies can explored more easily. Once the optimization problem is solved for the model of the surrogate, it is then lifted to the surrogate and tested. The final step is to lift the optimization solution from the surrogate system to the actual system. This program is illustrated with published work, using two relatively simple ABMs as a demonstration, Sugarscape and a consumer-resource ABM. Specific techniques discussed include dimension reduction and approximation of an ABM by difference equations as well systems of PDEs, related to certain specific control objectives. This demonstration illustrates the very challenging mathematical problems that need to be solved before this approach can be realistically applied to complex and large ABMs, current and future. The paper outlines a research program to address them.

  9. Agent-based modeling of oxygen-responsive transcription factors in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Bai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the presence of oxygen (O2 the model bacterium Escherichia coli is able to conserve energy by aerobic respiration. Two major terminal oxidases are involved in this process - Cyo has a relatively low affinity for O2 but is able to pump protons and hence is energetically efficient; Cyd has a high affinity for O2 but does not pump protons. When E. coli encounters environments with different O2 availabilities, the expression of the genes encoding the alternative terminal oxidases, the cydAB and cyoABCDE operons, are regulated by two O2-responsive transcription factors, ArcA (an indirect O2 sensor and FNR (a direct O2 sensor. It has been suggested that O2-consumption by the terminal oxidases located at the cytoplasmic membrane significantly affects the activities of ArcA and FNR in the bacterial nucleoid. In this study, an agent-based modeling approach has been taken to spatially simulate the uptake and consumption of O2 by E. coli and the consequent modulation of ArcA and FNR activities based on experimental data obtained from highly controlled chemostat cultures. The molecules of O2, transcription factors and terminal oxidases are treated as individual agents and their behaviors and interactions are imitated in a simulated 3-D E. coli cell. The model implies that there are two barriers that dampen the response of FNR to O2, i.e. consumption of O2 at the membrane by the terminal oxidases and reaction of O2 with cytoplasmic FNR. Analysis of FNR variants suggested that the monomer-dimer transition is the key step in FNR-mediated repression of gene expression.

  10. An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eppstein, Margaret J.; Grover, David K.; Marshall, Jeffrey S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

    2011-01-01

    A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, homophily, and conformity) and media influences. Preliminary simulations demonstrate how such a model could be used to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points, inform policies affecting PHEV market penetration, and help identify future data collection necessary to more accurately model the system. We examine sensitivity of the model to gasoline prices, to accuracy in estimation of fuel costs, to agent willingness to adopt the PHEV technology, to PHEV purchase price and rebates, to PHEV battery range, and to heuristic values related to gasoline usage. Our simulations indicate that PHEV market penetration could be enhanced significantly by providing consumers with ready estimates of expected lifetime fuel costs associated with different vehicles (e.g., on vehicle stickers), and that increases in gasoline prices could nonlinearly magnify the impact on fleet efficiency. We also infer that a potential synergy from a gasoline tax with proceeds is used to fund research into longer-range lower-cost PHEV batteries. - Highlights: → We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. → The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. → We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. → Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. → Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency.

  11. Effects of naloxone distribution to likely bystanders: Results of an agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Christopher; Egan, James E; Hawk, Mary

    2018-05-01

    Opioid overdose deaths in the US rose dramatically in the past 16 years, creating an urgent national health crisis with no signs of immediate relief. In 2017, the President of the US officially declared the opioid epidemic to be a national emergency and called for additional resources to respond to the crisis. Distributing naloxone to community laypersons and people at high risk for opioid overdose can prevent overdose death, but optimal distribution methods have not yet been pinpointed. We conducted a sequential exploratory mixed methods design using qualitative data to inform an agent-based model to improve understanding of effective community-based naloxone distribution to laypersons to reverse opioid overdose. The individuals in the model were endowed with cognitive and behavioral variables and accessed naloxone via community sites such as pharmacies, hospitals, and urgent-care centers. We compared overdose deaths over a simulated 6-month period while varying the number of distribution sites (0, 1, and 10) and number of kits given to individuals per visit (1 versus 10). Specifically, we ran thirty simulations for each of thirteen distribution models and report average overdose deaths for each. The baseline comparator was no naloxone distribution. Our simulations explored the effects of distribution through syringe exchange sites with and without secondary distribution, which refers to distribution of naloxone kits by laypersons within their social networks and enables ten additional laypersons to administer naloxone to reverse opioid overdose. Our baseline model with no naloxone distribution predicted there would be 167.9 deaths in a six month period. A single distribution site, even with 10 kits picked up per visit, decreased overdose deaths by only 8.3% relative to baseline. However, adding secondary distribution through social networks to a single site resulted in 42.5% fewer overdose deaths relative to baseline. That is slightly higher than the 39

  12. Phenotypic transition maps of 3D breast acini obtained by imaging-guided agent-based modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Jonathan; Enderling, Heiko; Becker-Weimann, Sabine; Pham, Christopher; Polyzos, Aris; Chen, Chen-Yi; Costes, Sylvain V

    2011-02-18

    We introduce an agent-based model of epithelial cell morphogenesis to explore the complex interplay between apoptosis, proliferation, and polarization. By varying the activity levels of these mechanisms we derived phenotypic transition maps of normal and aberrant morphogenesis. These maps identify homeostatic ranges and morphologic stability conditions. The agent-based model was parameterized and validated using novel high-content image analysis of mammary acini morphogenesis in vitro with focus on time-dependent cell densities, proliferation and death rates, as well as acini morphologies. Model simulations reveal apoptosis being necessary and sufficient for initiating lumen formation, but cell polarization being the pivotal mechanism for maintaining physiological epithelium morphology and acini sphericity. Furthermore, simulations highlight that acinus growth arrest in normal acini can be achieved by controlling the fraction of proliferating cells. Interestingly, our simulations reveal a synergism between polarization and apoptosis in enhancing growth arrest. After validating the model with experimental data from a normal human breast line (MCF10A), the system was challenged to predict the growth of MCF10A where AKT-1 was overexpressed, leading to reduced apoptosis. As previously reported, this led to non growth-arrested acini, with very large sizes and partially filled lumen. However, surprisingly, image analysis revealed a much lower nuclear density than observed for normal acini. The growth kinetics indicates that these acini grew faster than the cells comprising it. The in silico model could not replicate this behavior, contradicting the classic paradigm that ductal carcinoma in situ is only the result of high proliferation and low apoptosis. Our simulations suggest that overexpression of AKT-1 must also perturb cell-cell and cell-ECM communication, reminding us that extracellular context can dictate cellular behavior.

  13. Using an agent-based model to analyze the dynamic communication network of the immune response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doolittle John

    2011-01-01

    loss outcomes. Conclusions An agent-based model capturing several key aspects of complex system dynamics was used to study the emergent properties of the immune response to viral infection. Specific patterns of interactions between leukocyte agents occurring early in the response significantly improved outcome. More interactions at later stages correlated with persistent inflammation and infection. These simulation experiments highlight the importance of commonly overlooked aspects of the immune response and provide insight into these processes at a resolution level exceeding the capabilities of current laboratory technologies.

  14. Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

  15. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  16. Exploration of agent of change’s role in biodiesel energy transition process using agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayatno, A.; Vicky, L. R.; Destyanto, A. R.

    2017-11-01

    As the world’s largest Crude Palm Oil (CPO) producer, Indonesia uses CPO as raw material for biodiesel. A number of policies have been designed by the Indonesian government to support adoption of biodiesel. However, the role of energy alternatives faced complex problems. Agent-based modeling can be applied to predict the impact of policies on the actors in the business process to acquire a rich discernment of the behavior and decision making by the biodiesel industries. This study evaluates government policy by attending at the adoption of the biodiesel industry in the tender run by a government with the intervention of two policy options biodiesel energy utilization by developing an agent-based model. The simulation result show that the policy of adding the biodiesel plant installed capacity has a good impact in increasing the production capacity and vendor adoption in the tender. Even so, the government should consider the cost to be incurred and the profits for vendors, so the biodiesel production targets can be successfully fulfilled.

  17. An Agent-Based Model for Addressing the Impact of a Disaster on Access to Primary Care Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guclu, Hasan; Kumar, Supriya; Galloway, David; Krauland, Mary; Sood, Rishi; Bocour, Angelica; Hershey, Tina Batra; van Nostrand, Elizabeth; Potter, Margaret

    2016-06-01

    Hurricane Sandy in the Rockaways, Queens, forced residents to evacuate and primary care providers to close or curtail operations. A large deficit in primary care access was apparent in the immediate aftermath of the storm. Our objective was to build a computational model to aid responders in planning to situate primary care services in a disaster-affected area. Using an agent-based modeling platform, HAZEL, we simulated the Rockaways population, its evacuation behavior, and primary care providers' availability in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Data sources for this model included post-storm and community health surveys from New York City, a survey of the Rockaways primary care providers, and research literature. The model then tested geospatially specific interventions to address storm-related access deficits. The model revealed that areas of high primary care access deficit were concentrated in the eastern part of the Rockaways. Placing mobile health clinics in the most populous census tracts reduced the access deficit significantly, whereas increasing providers' capacity by 50% reduced the deficit to a lesser degree. An agent-based model may be a useful tool to have in place so that policy makers can conduct scenario-based analyses to plan interventions optimally in the event of a disaster. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:386-393).

  18. The role of research efficiency in the evolution of scientific productivity and impact: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    You, Zhi-Qiang; Han, Xiao-Pu; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik

    2016-01-01

    We introduce an agent-based model to investigate the effects of production efficiency (PE) and hot field tracing capability (HFTC) on productivity and impact of scientists embedded in a competitive research environment. Agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of a citation network calibrated by real-world citation datasets. Our Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that differences in individual performance are strongly related to PE, whereas HFTC alone cannot provide sustainable academic careers under intensely competitive conditions. Remarkably, the negative effect of high competition levels on productivity can be buffered by elevated research efficiency if simultaneously HFTC is sufficiently low. - Highlights: • We study the role of production efficiency (PE) and research topic selectivity in the evolution of performance in academia. • In our model, agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of an artificial citation network. • Our agent-based model is calibrated by using datasets from the APS journals and the arxiv.org online preprint repository. • Individual performance is strongly affected by PE, whereas topic selectivity cannot significantly enhance academic success. • With even minimal reductions of research efficiency gaps, fairly profound boosts of scientific careers can be achieved.

  19. The role of research efficiency in the evolution of scientific productivity and impact: An agent-based model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    You, Zhi-Qiang [Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Institute of Information Economy and Alibaba Business College, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Han, Xiao-Pu, E-mail: xp@hznu.edu.cn [Alibaba Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Institute of Information Economy and Alibaba Business College, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Hadzibeganovic, Tarik, E-mail: tarik.hadzibeganovic@gmail.com [Department of Psychology, University of Graz, 8010 Graz (Austria)

    2016-02-22

    We introduce an agent-based model to investigate the effects of production efficiency (PE) and hot field tracing capability (HFTC) on productivity and impact of scientists embedded in a competitive research environment. Agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of a citation network calibrated by real-world citation datasets. Our Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that differences in individual performance are strongly related to PE, whereas HFTC alone cannot provide sustainable academic careers under intensely competitive conditions. Remarkably, the negative effect of high competition levels on productivity can be buffered by elevated research efficiency if simultaneously HFTC is sufficiently low. - Highlights: • We study the role of production efficiency (PE) and research topic selectivity in the evolution of performance in academia. • In our model, agents compete to publish and become cited by occupying the nodes of an artificial citation network. • Our agent-based model is calibrated by using datasets from the APS journals and the arxiv.org online preprint repository. • Individual performance is strongly affected by PE, whereas topic selectivity cannot significantly enhance academic success. • With even minimal reductions of research efficiency gaps, fairly profound boosts of scientific careers can be achieved.

  20. The Emergence of Climate Change and Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  1. Autism Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español Improving the lives of all affected by autism. The Autism Society is the nation's leading grassroots ... more Improving the lives of all affected by autism. The Autism Society is the nation's leading grassroots ...

  2. Vascular Adaptation: Pattern Formation and Cross Validation between an Agent Based Model and a Dynamical System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbey, Marc; Casarin, Stefano; Berceli, Scott A

    2017-09-21

    Myocardial infarction is the global leading cause of mortality (Go et al., 2014). Coronary artery occlusion is its main etiology and it is commonly treated by Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) surgery (Wilson et al, 2007). The long-term outcome remains unsatisfactory (Benedetto, 2016) as the graft faces the phenomenon of restenosis during the post-surgery, which consists of re-occlusion of the lumen and usually requires secondary intervention even within one year after the initial surgery (Harskamp, 2013). In this work, we propose an extensive study of the restenosis phenomenon by implementing two mathematical models previously developed by our group: a heuristic Dynamical System (DS) (Garbey and Berceli, 2013), and a stochastic Agent Based Model (ABM) (Garbey et al., 2015). With an extensive use of the ABM, we retrieved the pattern formations of the cellular events that mainly lead the restenosis, especially focusing on mitosis in intima, caused by alteration in shear stress, and mitosis in media, fostered by alteration in wall tension. A deep understanding of the elements at the base of the restenosis is indeed crucial in order to improve the final outcome of vein graft bypass. We also turned the ABM closer to the physiological reality by abating its original assumption of circumferential symmetry. This allowed us to finely replicate the trigger event of the restenosis, i.e. the loss of the endothelium in the early stage of the post-surgical follow up (Roubos et al., 1995) and to simulate the encroachment of the lumen in a fashion aligned with histological evidences (Owens et al., 2015). Finally, we cross-validated the two models by creating an accurate matching procedure. In this way we added the degree of accuracy given by the ABM to a simplified model (DS) that can serve as powerful predictive tool for the clinic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  4. Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Dalmasso

    Full Text Available Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy. While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1 mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2 restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3 maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4 our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions

  5. Equation-free analysis of agent-based models and systematic parameter determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Spencer A.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Skeldon, Anne C.

    2016-12-01

    Agent based models (ABM)s are increasingly used in social science, economics, mathematics, biology and computer science to describe time dependent systems in circumstances where a description in terms of equations is difficult. Yet few tools are currently available for the systematic analysis of ABM behaviour. Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis is a well-established tool for the study of deterministic systems. Recently, equation-free (EF) methods have been developed to extend numerical continuation techniques to systems where the dynamics are described at a microscopic scale and continuation of a macroscopic property of the system is considered. To date, the practical use of EF methods has been limited by; (1) the over-head of application-specific implementation; (2) the laborious configuration of problem-specific parameters; and (3) large ensemble sizes (potentially) leading to computationally restrictive run-times. In this paper we address these issues with our tool for the EF continuation of stochastic systems, which includes algorithms to systematically configuration problem specific parameters and enhance robustness to noise. Our tool is generic and can be applied to any 'black-box' simulator and determines the essential EF parameters prior to EF analysis. Robustness is significantly improved using our convergence-constraint with a corrector-repeat (C3R) method. This algorithm automatically detects outliers based on the dynamics of the underlying system enabling both an order of magnitude reduction in ensemble size and continuation of systems at much higher levels of noise than classical approaches. We demonstrate our method with application to several ABM models, revealing parameter dependence, bifurcation and stability analysis of these complex systems giving a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour of the models in a way that is not otherwise easily obtainable. In each case we demonstrate our systematic parameter determination stage for

  6. Agent Based Model in SAS Environment for Rail Transit System Alignment Determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Made Indradjaja Brunner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Transit system had been proposed for the urban area of Honolulu. One consideration to be determined is the alignment of the transit system. Decision to set the transit alignment will have influences on which areas will be served, who will be benefiting, as well as who will be impacted. Inputs for the decision usually conducted through public meetings, where community members are shown numbers of maps with pre-set routes. That approach could lead to a rather subjective decision by the community members. This paper attempts to discuss the utilization of grid map in determining the best alignment for rail transit system in Honolulu, Hawaii. It tries to use a more objective approach using various data derived from thematic maps. Overlaid maps are aggregated into a uniform 0.1-square mile vector based grid map system in GIS environment. The large dataset in the GIS environment is analyzed and manipulated using SAS software. The SAS procedure is applied to select the location of the alignment using a rational and deterministic approach. Grid cells that are superior compared to the others are selected based on several predefined criteria. Location of the dominant cells indicates possible transit alignment. The SAS procedure is designed to allow a transient vector called the GUIDE (Grid Unit with Intelligent Directional Expertise agent to analyze several cells at its vicinity and to move towards a cell with the highest value. Each time the agent landed on a cell, it left a mark. The chain of those marks shows location for the transit alignment. This study shows that the combination of ArcGIS and SAS allows a robust analysis of spatial data and manipulation of its datasets, which can be used to run a simulation mimicking the Agent-Based Modelling. This study also opens up further study possibilities by increasing number of factors analyzed by the agent, as well as creating a composite value of multi-factors.

  7. Predicting the impact of combined therapies on myeloma cell growth using a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Zhiwei; Su, Jing; Wu, Dan; Peng, Huiming; Zhao, Weiling; Nlong Zhao, Brian; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2017-01-31

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant still incurable plasma cell disorder. This is due to refractory disease relapse, immune impairment, and development of multi-drug resistance. The growth of malignant plasma cells is dependent on the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment and evasion of the host's anti-tumor immune response. Hence, we hypothesized that targeting tumor-stromal cell interaction and endogenous immune system in BM will potentially improve the response of multiple myeloma (MM). Therefore, we proposed a computational simulation of the myeloma development in the complicated microenvironment which includes immune cell components and bone marrow stromal cells and predicted the effects of combined treatment with multi-drugs on myeloma cell growth. We constructed a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model (HABM) that combines an ODE system and Agent-based model (ABM). The ODEs was used for modeling the dynamic changes of intracellular signal transductions and ABM for modeling the cell-cell interactions between stromal cells, tumor, and immune components in the BM. This model simulated myeloma growth in the bone marrow microenvironment and revealed the important role of immune system in this process. The predicted outcomes were consistent with the experimental observations from previous studies. Moreover, we applied this model to predict the treatment effects of three key therapeutic drugs used for MM, and found that the combination of these three drugs potentially suppress the growth of myeloma cells and reactivate the immune response. In summary, the proposed model may serve as a novel computational platform for simulating the formation of MM and evaluating the treatment response of MM to multiple drugs.

  8. Agent based approach for engineering and control of micro-grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basso, Gillian

    2013-01-01

    . - An agent-based model of the simulator to represent the complexity of electrical networks. - The use of the holonic paradigm to take into account the multiple levels inherent to power grids. - The use of the influence/reaction model and offers a technology that can manage simultaneous actions, possibly conflicting, in MAS. (author) [fr

  9. The possibility of coexistence and co-development in language competition: ecology-society computational model and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Jian; Shang, Song-Chao; Wei, Xiao-Dan; Liu, Shuang; Li, Zhi-Jie

    2016-01-01

    Language is characterized by both ecological properties and social properties, and competition is the basic form of language evolution. The rise and decline of one language is a result of competition between languages. Moreover, this rise and decline directly influences the diversity of human culture. Mathematics and computer modeling for language competition has been a popular topic in the fields of linguistics, mathematics, computer science, ecology, and other disciplines. Currently, there are several problems in the research on language competition modeling. First, comprehensive mathematical analysis is absent in most studies of language competition models. Next, most language competition models are based on the assumption that one language in the model is stronger than the other. These studies tend to ignore cases where there is a balance of power in the competition. The competition between two well-matched languages is more practical, because it can facilitate the co-development of two languages. A third issue with current studies is that many studies have an evolution result where the weaker language inevitably goes extinct. From the integrated point of view of ecology and sociology, this paper improves the Lotka-Volterra model and basic reaction-diffusion model to propose an "ecology-society" computational model for describing language competition. Furthermore, a strict and comprehensive mathematical analysis was made for the stability of the equilibria. Two languages in competition may be either well-matched or greatly different in strength, which was reflected in the experimental design. The results revealed that language coexistence, and even co-development, are likely to occur during language competition.

  10. Agent-based transport simulation versus equilibrium assignment for private vehicle traffic in Gauteng

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Fourie, PJ

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available 2000, commissioned by the Gauteng Department of Roads and Public Works. MATSim and EMME/2 produce similar volumes on high capacity links, but closer investigation reveals that MATSim agents also favour secondary routes to avoid congestion. MATSim...

  11. Exploring Naval Tactics with UAVs in an Island Complex Using Agent-Based Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lalis, Vasileios

    2007-01-01

    The benefits of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) at sea are undisputed. The amount and speed of the incoming information from a UAV, combined with its maneuverability and time-on-task capability, are assets to any navy...

  12. An Agent-based Simulation of a QoS-oriented Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Gumzej, Roman; Rosi, Bojan

    2017-01-01

    With adaptive customer-orientation the efficiency of supply chain management is improved substantially. By the introduction of service quality-based decision-making into supply chain management the quality of service (QoS) within supply chains is expected to improve autonomously and continuously up- and downstream. In the paper the main characteristics of quality of service oriented supply chain management are outlined. The quality of service criterion, introduced into the adaptive supply cha...

  13. UAV Swarm Tactics: An Agent-Based Simulation and Markov Process Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    research UAV platforms, namely the (a) Procerus Unicorn UAV and (b) modified Ritewing ZephyrII RC plane, for ongoing live-fly field experimentation of the...number of possible states would grow exponentially, but short excursions with baseline two-on-one models, as found in the literature, could provide

  14. Simulating Emerging Space Industries with Agent-Based Modeling, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) calls for encouraging commercial participation as a top-level objective. Given current and future commercial activities, how...

  15. Modelling the Effects of Information Campaigns Using Agent-Based Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wragg, Tony

    2006-01-01

    .... The study highlighted the requirement for accurate data concerning a population's social hierarchy, social networks, behavior patterns, human geography and their subsequent impact on the success of both word-of-mouth and mass media driven information campaigns.

  16. Agent Based Modeling and Simulation of Pedestrian Crowds In Panic Situations

    KAUST Repository

    Alrashed, Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    to self-propelling interactions between pedestrians. Although every pedestrian has personal preferences, the motion dynamics can be modeled as a social force in such crowds. These forces are representations of internal preferences and objectives to perform

  17. Particle Swarm Social Adaptive Model for Multi-Agent Based Insurgency Warfare Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Xiaohui [ORNL; Potok, Thomas E [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    To better understand insurgent activities and asymmetric warfare, a social adaptive model for modeling multiple insurgent groups attacking multiple military and civilian targets is proposed and investigated. This report presents a pilot study using the particle swarm modeling, a widely used non-linear optimal tool to model the emergence of insurgency campaign. The objective of this research is to apply the particle swarm metaphor as a model of insurgent social adaptation for the dynamically changing environment and to provide insight and understanding of insurgency warfare. Our results show that unified leadership, strategic planning, and effective communication between insurgent groups are not the necessary requirements for insurgents to efficiently attain their objective.

  18. Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokar Arsanjani, J.; Helbich, M.; Vaz, E.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid urban growth is becoming a serious problem in most developing countries. Tehran, the capital of Iran, stands out as a vibrant metropolitan area, facing uncontrolled urban expansion. Public authorities and decision makers require planning criteria regarding possible spatial developments. To

  19. Using agent-based simulation to explore sugarcane supply chain transport complexities at a mill scale

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Price, CS

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available . The anticipated waiting time was varied to determine how many trucks would be needed in the system to deliver the week’s cane allocation. As the anticipated waiting time increased, the number of trucks needed also increased, which in turn delayed the trucks when...

  20. How Does Emotion Influence Collaboration? - An Agent Based Simulation of the Dynamic of Confrontation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Gilbert, N., & Terna, P. (2000). How to Build and Use Agent‐based Models in  Social Science. Retrieved March 3, 2008, from Facoltà di  Economia ...American , pp.  50–57.  Li, S., & Roloff, M. E. (2006). Strategic Emotion in Negotiation: Cognition,  Emotion, and  Culture . In Communication to Presence...Cognition, Emotions and  Culture  towards the Ultimate Communicative Experience. Amsterdam: IOS Press.  Macy, M. W., & Willer, R. (2002). From Factors