Numeracy moderates the influence of task-irrelevant affect on probability weighting.

Science.gov (United States)

Traczyk, Jakub; Fulawka, Kamil

2016-06-01

Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-07-01

Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.

Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

Science.gov (United States)

López Puga, Jorge

2014-01-01

The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

Effects of NMDA receptor antagonists on probability discounting depend on the order of probability presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Justin R; Breitenstein, Kerry A; Gunkel, Benjamin T; Hughes, Mallory N; Johnson, Anthony B; Rogers, Katherine K; Shape, Sara M

Risky decision making can be measured using a probability-discounting procedure, in which animals choose between a small, certain reinforcer and a large, uncertain reinforcer. Recent evidence has identified glutamate as a mediator of risky decision making, as blocking the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor with MK-801 increases preference for a large, uncertain reinforcer. Because the order in which probabilities associated with the large reinforcer can modulate the effects of drugs on choice, the current study determined if NMDA receptor ligands alter probability discounting using ascending and descending schedules. Sixteen rats were trained in a probability-discounting procedure in which the odds against obtaining the large reinforcer increased (n=8) or decreased (n=8) across blocks of trials. Following behavioral training, rats received treatments of the NMDA receptor ligands MK-801 (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 0.003, 0.01, or 0.03mg/kg), ketamine (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 5.0, or 10.0mg/kg), and ifenprodil (NR2B-selective non-competitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 3.0, or 10.0mg/kg). Results showed discounting was steeper (indicating increased risk aversion) for rats on an ascending schedule relative to rats on the descending schedule. Furthermore, the effects of MK-801, ketamine, and ifenprodil on discounting were dependent on the schedule used. Specifically, the highest dose of each drug decreased risk taking in rats in the descending schedule, but only MK-801 (0.03mg/kg) increased risk taking in rats on an ascending schedule. These results show that probability presentation order modulates the effects of NMDA receptor ligands on risky decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is probability of frequency too narrow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.

1993-01-01

Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

Impact of MCNP Unresolved Resonance Probability-Table Treatment on Uranium and Plutonium Benchmarks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosteller, R.D.; Little, R.C.

1999-01-01

A probability-table treatment recently has been incorporated into an intermediate version of the MCNP Monte Carlo code named MCNP4XS. This paper presents MCNP4XS results for a variety of uranium and plutonium criticality benchmarks, calculated with and without the probability-table treatment. It is shown that the probability-table treatment can produce small but significant reactivity changes for plutonium and 233 U systems with intermediate spectra. More importantly, it can produce substantial reactivity increases for systems with large amounts of 238 U and intermediate spectra

Invariant probabilities of transition functions

CERN Document Server

Zaharopol, Radu

2014-01-01

The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2006-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...... the distributions can be subsequently used in pre-aggregation. Since the probability distributions can become large, we show how to achieve good time and space efficiency by approximating the distributions. We present the results of several experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. The work...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions....

Decreased Serum Lipids in Patients with Probable Alzheimer´s Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orhan Lepara

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is a multifactorial disease but its aetiology and pathophisiology are still not fully understood. Epidemiologic studies examining the association between lipids and dementia have reported conflicting results. High total cholesterol has been associated with both an increased, and decreased, risk of AD and/or vascular dementia (VAD, whereas other studies found no association. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum lipids concentration in patients with probable AD, as well as possible correlation between serum lipids concentrations and cognitive impairment.Our cross-sectional study included 30 patients with probable AD and 30 age and sex matched control subjects. The probable AD was clinically diagnosed by NINCDS-ADRDA criteria. Serum total cholesterol (TC, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and triglyceride (TG levels were determined at the initial assessment using standard enzymatic colorimetric techniques. Low-den- sity lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C levels were calculated. Subjects with probable AD had significantly lower serum TG (p<0,01, TC (p<0,05, LDL-C (p<0,05 and VLDL-C (p<0,01 compared to the control group. We did not observe signifi-cant difference in HDL-C level between patients with probable AD and control subjects. Negative, although not significant correlation between TG, TC and VLDL-C and MMSE in patients with AD was observed. In the control group of subjects there was a negative correlation between TC and MMSE but it was not statistically significant (r = -0,28. Further studies are required to explore the possibility for serum lipids to serve as diagnostic and therapeutic markers of AD.

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

Probability via expectation

CERN Document Server

Whittle, Peter

1992-01-01

This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

Diagnosis of time of increased probability of volcanic earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius zone

CERN Document Server

Rotwain, I; Kuznetsov, I V; Panza, G F; Peresan, A

2003-01-01

The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the algorithm CN is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M >= M sub 0 , within a region a priori delimited. Here the algorithm CN is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius, during the period from February 1972 to October 2002, are considered and the magnitude threshold M sub 0 , selecting the events to be predicted, is varied within the range: 3.0 - 3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5 - 3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M >= M sub 0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The co...

Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

Default probabilities and default correlations

OpenAIRE

Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

2001-01-01

Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

Probabilities for profitable fungicide use against gray leaf spot in hybrid maize.

Science.gov (United States)

Munkvold, G P; Martinson, C A; Shriver, J M; Dixon, P M

2001-05-01

ABSTRACT Gray leaf spot, caused by the fungus Cercospora zeae-maydis, causes considerable yield losses in hybrid maize grown in the north-central United States and elsewhere. Nonchemical management tactics have not adequately prevented these losses. The probability of profitably using fungicide application as a management tool for gray leaf spot was evaluated in 10 field experiments under conditions of natural inoculum in Iowa. Gray leaf spot severity in untreated control plots ranged from 2.6 to 72.8% for the ear leaf and from 3.0 to 7.7 (1 to 9 scale) for whole-plot ratings. In each experiment, fungicide applications with propiconazole or mancozeb significantly reduced gray leaf spot severity. Fungicide treatment significantly (P increased yield by as much as 1.65 t/ha with a single propiconazole application. There were significant (P < 0.05) correlations between gray leaf spot severity and yield. We used a Bayesian inference method to calculate for each experiment the probability of achieving a positive net return with one or two propiconazole applications, based on the mean yields and standard deviations for treated and untreated plots, the price of grain, and the costs of the fungicide applications. For one application, the probability ranged from approximately 0.06 to more than 0.99, and exceeded 0.50 in six of nine scenarios (specific experiment/hybrid). The highest probabilities occurred in the 1995 experiments with the most susceptible hybrid. Probabilities were almost always higher for a single application of propiconazole than for two applications. These results indicate that a single application of propiconazole frequently can be profitable for gray leaf spot management in Iowa, but the probability of a profitable application is strongly influenced by hybrid susceptibility. The calculation of probabilities for positive net returns was more informative than mean separation in terms of assessing the economic success of the fungicide applications.

Assessing the Probability that a Finding Is Genuine for Large-Scale Genetic Association Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Chia-Ling; Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Zaykin, Dmitri V

2015-01-01

Genetic association studies routinely involve massive numbers of statistical tests accompanied by P-values. Whole genome sequencing technologies increased the potential number of tested variants to tens of millions. The more tests are performed, the smaller P-value is required to be deemed significant. However, a small P-value is not equivalent to small chances of a spurious finding and significance thresholds may fail to serve as efficient filters against false results. While the Bayesian approach can provide a direct assessment of the probability that a finding is spurious, its adoption in association studies has been slow, due in part to the ubiquity of P-values and the automated way they are, as a rule, produced by software packages. Attempts to design simple ways to convert an association P-value into the probability that a finding is spurious have been met with difficulties. The False Positive Report Probability (FPRP) method has gained increasing popularity. However, FPRP is not designed to estimate the probability for a particular finding, because it is defined for an entire region of hypothetical findings with P-values at least as small as the one observed for that finding. Here we propose a method that lets researchers extract probability that a finding is spurious directly from a P-value. Considering the counterpart of that probability, we term this method POFIG: the Probability that a Finding is Genuine. Our approach shares FPRP's simplicity, but gives a valid probability that a finding is spurious given a P-value. In addition to straightforward interpretation, POFIG has desirable statistical properties. The POFIG average across a set of tentative associations provides an estimated proportion of false discoveries in that set. POFIGs are easily combined across studies and are immune to multiple testing and selection bias. We illustrate an application of POFIG method via analysis of GWAS associations with Crohn's disease.

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Multiple fields may offer better esophagus sparing without increased probability of lung toxicity in optimized IMRT of lung tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapet, Olivier; Fraass, Benedick A.; Haken, Randall K. ten

2006-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate whether increasing numbers of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) fields enhance lung-tumor dose without additional predicted toxicity for difficult planning geometries. Methods and Materials: Data from 8 previous three dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) patients with tumors located in various regions of each lung, but with planning target volumes (PTVs) overlapping part of the esophagus, were used as input. Four optimized-beamlet IMRT plans (1 plan that used the 3D-CRT beam arrangement and 3 plans with 3, 5, or 7 axial, but predominantly one-sided, fields) were compared. For IMRT, the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) in the whole PTV was optimized simultaneously with that in a reduced PTV exclusive of the esophagus. Normal-tissue complication probability-based costlets were used for the esophagus, heart, and lung. Results: Overall, IMRT plans (optimized by use of EUD to judiciously allow relaxed PTV dose homogeneity) result in better minimum PTV isodose surface coverage and better average EUD values than does conformal planning; dose generally increases with the number of fields. Even 7-field plans do not significantly alter normal-lung mean-dose values or lung volumes that receive more than 13, 20, or 30 Gy. Conclusion: Optimized many-field IMRT plans can lead to escalated lung-tumor dose in the special case of esophagus overlapping PTV, without unacceptable alteration in the dose distribution to normal lung

Neurite outgrowth is significantly increased by the simultaneous presentation of Schwann cells and moderate exogenous electric fields

Science.gov (United States)

Koppes, Abigail N.; Seggio, Angela M.; Thompson, Deanna M.

2011-08-01

Axonal extension is influenced by a variety of external guidance cues; therefore, the development and optimization of a multi-faceted approach is probably necessary to address the intricacy of functional regeneration following nerve injury. In this study, primary dissociated neonatal rat dorsal root ganglia neurons and Schwann cells were examined in response to an 8 h dc electrical stimulation (0-100 mV mm-1). Stimulated samples were then fixed immediately, immunostained, imaged and analyzed to determine Schwann cell orientation and characterize neurite outgrowth relative to electric field strength and direction. Results indicate that Schwann cells are viable following electrical stimulation with 10-100 mV mm-1, and retain a normal morphology relative to unstimulated cells; however, no directional bias is observed. Neurite outgrowth was significantly enhanced by twofold following exposure to either a 50 mV mm-1 electric field (EF) or co-culture with unstimulated Schwann cells by comparison to neurons cultured alone. Neurite outgrowth was further increased in the presence of simultaneously applied cues (Schwann cells + 50 mV mm-1 dc EF), exhibiting a 3.2-fold increase over unstimulated control neurons, and a 1.2-fold increase over either neurons cultured with unstimulated Schwann cells or the electrical stimulus alone. These results indicate that dc electric stimulation in combination with Schwann cells may provide synergistic guidance cues for improved axonal growth relevant to nerve injuries in the peripheral nervous system.

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Lucile M.

1994-01-01

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

Probability of detection of clinical seizures using heart rate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Osorio, Ivan; Manly, B F J

2015-08-01

Heart rate-based seizure detection is a viable complement or alternative to ECoG/EEG. This study investigates the role of various biological factors on the probability of clinical seizure detection using heart rate. Regression models were applied to 266 clinical seizures recorded from 72 subjects to investigate if factors such as age, gender, years with epilepsy, etiology, seizure site origin, seizure class, and data collection centers, among others, shape the probability of EKG-based seizure detection. Clinical seizure detection probability based on heart rate changes, is significantly (pprobability of detecting clinical seizures (>0.8 in the majority of subjects) using heart rate is highest for complex partial seizures, increases with a patient's years with epilepsy, is lower for females than for males and is unrelated to the side of hemisphere origin. Clinical seizure detection probability using heart rate is multi-factorially dependent and sufficiently high (>0.8) in most cases to be clinically useful. Knowledge of the role that these factors play in shaping said probability will enhance its applicability and usefulness. Heart rate is a reliable and practical signal for extra-cerebral detection of clinical seizures originating from or spreading to central autonomic network structures. Copyright © 2015 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased probability of repetitive spinal motoneuron activation by transcranial magnetic stimulation after muscle fatigue in healthy subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Birgit; Felding, Ulrik Ascanius; Krarup, Christian

2012-01-01

Triple stimulation technique (TST) has previously shown that transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) fails to activate a proportion of spinal motoneurons (MNs) during motor fatigue. The TST response depression without attenuation of the conventional motor evoked potential suggested increased...... probability of repetitive spinal MN activation during exercise even if some MNs failed to discharge by the brain stimulus. Here we used a modified TST (Quadruple stimulation; QuadS and Quintuple stimulation; QuintS) to examine the influence of fatiguing exercise on second and third MN discharges after......, reflecting that a greater proportion of spinal MNs were activated 2 or 3 times by the transcranial stimulus. The size of QuadS responses did not return to pre-contraction levels during 10 min observation time indicating long-lasting increase in excitatory input to spinal MNs. In addition, the post...

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian; Winkel, Per

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does...... not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore...... of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a 'null' effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance...

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

APP Homodimers Transduce an Amyloid-β-Mediated Increase in Release Probability at Excitatory Synapses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilla Fogel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Accumulation of amyloid-β peptides (Aβ, the proteolytic products of the amyloid precursor protein (APP, induces a variety of synaptic dysfunctions ranging from hyperactivity to depression that are thought to cause cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease. While depression of synaptic transmission has been extensively studied, the mechanisms underlying synaptic hyperactivity remain unknown. Here, we show that Aβ40 monomers and dimers augment release probability through local fine-tuning of APP-APP interactions at excitatory hippocampal boutons. Aβ40 binds to the APP, increases the APP homodimer fraction at the plasma membrane, and promotes APP-APP interactions. The APP activation induces structural rearrangements in the APP/Gi/o-protein complex, boosting presynaptic calcium flux and vesicle release. The APP growth-factor-like domain (GFLD mediates APP-APP conformational changes and presynaptic enhancement. Thus, the APP homodimer constitutes a presynaptic receptor that transduces signal from Aβ40 to glutamate release. Excessive APP activation may initiate a positive feedback loop, contributing to hippocampal hyperactivity in Alzheimer’s disease.

Cross Check of NOvA Oscillation Probabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parke, Stephen J. [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States). Dept. of Theoretical Physics; Messier, Mark D. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Physics

2018-01-12

In this note we perform a cross check of the programs used by NOvA to calculate the 3-flavor oscillation probabilities with a independent program using a different method. The comparison is performed at 6 significant figures and the agreement, $|\\Delta P|/P$ is better than $10^{-5}$, as good as can be expected with 6 significant figures. In addition, a simple and accurate alternative method to calculate the oscillation probabilities is outlined and compared in the L/E range and matter density relevant for the NOvA experiment.

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Diagnosis of time of increased probability of volcanic earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rotwain, I.; Kuznetsov, I.; De Natale, G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

2003-06-01

The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the algorithm CN is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M 0 , within a region a priori delimited. Here the algorithm CN is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius, during the period from February 1972 to October 2002, are considered and the magnitude threshold M 0 , selecting the events to be predicted, is varied within the range: 3.0 - 3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5 - 3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M 0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment 'Seismic History' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the algorithm CN can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius. (author)

Sixteen-Day Bedrest Significantly Increases Plasma Colloid Osmotic Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Hargens, Alan R.; Hsieh, S. T.; Murthy, G.; Ballard, R. E.; Convertino, V. A.; Wade, Charles E. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Upon exposure to microgravity, astronauts lose up to 10% of their total plasma volume, which may contribute to orthostatic intolerance after space flight. Because plasma colloid osmotic pressure (COP) is a primary factor maintaining plasma volume, our objective was to measure time course changes in COP during microgravity simulated by 6 deg. head-down tilt (HDT). Seven healthy male subjects (30-55 years of age) were placed in HDT for 16 days. For the purpose of another study, three of the seven subjects were chosen to exercise on a cycle ergometer on day 16. Blood samples were drawn immediately before bedrest on day 14 of bedrest, 18-24 hours following exercise while all subjects were still in HDT and 1 hour following bedrest termination. Plasma COP was measured in all 20 microliter EDTA-treated samples using an osmometer fitted with a PM 30 membrane. Data were analyzed with paired and unpaired t-tests. Plasma COP on day 14 of bedrest (29.9 +/- 0.69 mmHg) was significantly higher (p less than 0.005) than the control, pre-bedrest value (23.1 +/- 0.76 mmHg). At one hour of upright recovery after HDT, plasma COP remained significantly elevated (exercise: 26.9 +/- 0.87 mmHg; no exercise: 26.3 +/- 0.85 mmHg). Additionally, exercise had no significant effect on plasma COP 18-24 hours following exercise (exercise: 27.8 +/- 1.09 mmHg; no exercise: 27.1 +/- 0.78 mmHg). Our results demonstrate that plasma COP increases significantly with microgravity simulated by HDT. However, preliminary results indicate exercise during HDT does not significantly affect plasma COP.

Method to Calculate Accurate Top Event Probability in a Seismic PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

ACUBE(Advanced Cutset Upper Bound Estimator) calculates the top event probability and importance measures from cutsets by dividing cutsets into major and minor groups depending on the cutset probability, where the cutsets that have higher cutset probability are included in the major group and the others in minor cutsets, converting major cutsets into a Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. ACUBE works by dividing the cutsets into two groups (higher and lower cutset probability groups), calculating the top event probability and importance measures in each group, and combining the two results from the two groups. Here, ACUBE calculates the top event probability and importance measures of the higher cutset probability group exactly. On the other hand, ACUBE calculates these measures of the lower cutset probability group with an approximation such as MCUB. The ACUBE algorithm is useful for decreasing the conservatism that is caused by approximating the top event probability and importance measure calculations with given cutsets. By applying the ACUBE algorithm to the seismic PSA cutsets, the accuracy of a top event probability and importance measures can be significantly improved. This study shows that careful attention should be paid and an appropriate method be provided in order to avoid the significant overestimation of the top event probability calculation. Due to the strength of ACUBE that is explained in this study, the ACUBE became a vital tool for calculating more accurate CDF of the seismic PSA cutsets than the conventional probability calculation method.

The probable effect of integrated reporting on audit quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamer A. El Nashar

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines a probable effect of integrated reporting on improving the audit quality of organizations. I correlate the hypothesis of this paper in relation to the current trends of protecting the economies, the financial markets and the societies. I predict an improvement of the audit quality, as a result to an estimated percentage of organizations’ reliance on the integrated reporting in their accountability perspective. I used a decision tree and a Bayes’ theorem approach, to predict the probabilities of the significant effect on improving the auditing quality. I find the overall result of this paper, indicates that the probability of organizations to rely on the integrated reporting by a significant percentage, predicts also a significant improvement in audit quality.

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANDRÉ F NASCIMENTO

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animáis submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=31; 3,5 Kcal/g and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g. The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animáis a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee Índex, body mass Índex and misclassification probability. A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee Índex. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21% to 40.91%. In conclusión, the results of this experiment show that misclassification probabilities occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animáis. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)

2012-04-15

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

Sensitivity of probability-of-failure estimates with respect to probability of detection curve parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2012-01-01

A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

2014-01-01

the dependent variable of the latent variable model and its predictor variables. We show how this correlation can be derived from the parameters of non-linear probability models, develop tests for the statistical significance of the derived correlation, and illustrate its usefulness in two applications. Under......Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations between...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....

INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCE OF ENCODING FUNCTION COMPLEXITY ON DISTRIBUTION OF ERROR MASKING PROBABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Levina

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Error detection codes are mechanisms that enable robust delivery of data in unreliable communication channels and devices. Unreliable channels and devices are error-prone objects. Respectively, error detection codes allow detecting such errors. There are two classes of error detecting codes - classical codes and security-oriented codes. The classical codes have high percentage of detected errors; however, they have a high probability to miss an error in algebraic manipulation. In order, security-oriented codes are codes with a small Hamming distance and high protection to algebraic manipulation. The probability of error masking is a fundamental parameter of security-oriented codes. A detailed study of this parameter allows analyzing the behavior of the error-correcting code in the case of error injection in the encoding device. In order, the complexity of the encoding function plays an important role in the security-oriented codes. Encoding functions with less computational complexity and a low probability of masking are the best protection of encoding device against malicious acts. This paper investigates the influence of encoding function complexity on the error masking probability distribution. It will be shownthat the more complex encoding function reduces the maximum of error masking probability. It is also shown in the paper that increasing of the function complexity changes the error masking probability distribution. In particular, increasing of computational complexity decreases the difference between the maximum and average value of the error masking probability. Our resultshave shown that functions with greater complexity have smoothed maximums of error masking probability, which significantly complicates the analysis of error-correcting code by attacker. As a result, in case of complex encoding function the probability of the algebraic manipulation is reduced. The paper discusses an approach how to measure the error masking

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Doyle T.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2017-01-01

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Joint Probability-Based Neuronal Spike Train Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Chen

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Neuronal spike trains are used by the nervous system to encode and transmit information. Euclidean distance-based methods (EDBMs have been applied to quantify the similarity between temporally-discretized spike trains and model responses. In this study, using the same discretization procedure, we developed and applied a joint probability-based method (JPBM to classify individual spike trains of slowly adapting pulmonary stretch receptors (SARs. The activity of individual SARs was recorded in anaesthetized, paralysed adult male rabbits, which were artificially-ventilated at constant rate and one of three different volumes. Two-thirds of the responses to the 600 stimuli presented at each volume were used to construct three response models (one for each stimulus volume consisting of a series of time bins, each with spike probabilities. The remaining one-third of the responses where used as test responses to be classified into one of the three model responses. This was done by computing the joint probability of observing the same series of events (spikes or no spikes, dictated by the test response in a given model and determining which probability of the three was highest. The JPBM generally produced better classification accuracy than the EDBM, and both performed well above chance. Both methods were similarly affected by variations in discretization parameters, response epoch duration, and two different response alignment strategies. Increasing bin widths increased classification accuracy, which also improved with increased observation time, but primarily during periods of increasing lung inflation. Thus, the JPBM is a simple and effective method performing spike train classification.

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Fixation probability on clique-based graphs

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jeong-Ok; Yu, Unjong

2018-02-01

The fixation probability of a mutant in the evolutionary dynamics of Moran process is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method on a few families of clique-based graphs. It is shown that the complete suppression of fixation can be realized with the generalized clique-wheel graph in the limit of small wheel-clique ratio and infinite size. The family of clique-star is an amplifier, and clique-arms graph changes from amplifier to suppressor as the fitness of the mutant increases. We demonstrate that the overall structure of a graph can be more important to determine the fixation probability than the degree or the heat heterogeneity. The dependence of the fixation probability on the position of the first mutant is discussed.

Evolution of thermal stress and failure probability during reduction and re-oxidation of solid oxide fuel cell

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu; Jiang, Wenchun; Luo, Yun; Zhang, Yucai; Tu, Shan-Tung

2017-12-01

The reduction and re-oxidation of anode have significant effects on the integrity of the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) sealed by the glass-ceramic (GC). The mechanical failure is mainly controlled by the stress distribution. Therefore, a three dimensional model of SOFC is established to investigate the stress evolution during the reduction and re-oxidation by finite element method (FEM) in this paper, and the failure probability is calculated using the Weibull method. The results demonstrate that the reduction of anode can decrease the thermal stresses and reduce the failure probability due to the volumetric contraction and porosity increasing. The re-oxidation can result in a remarkable increase of the thermal stresses, and the failure probabilities of anode, cathode, electrolyte and GC all increase to 1, which is mainly due to the large linear strain rather than the porosity decreasing. The cathode and electrolyte fail as soon as the linear strains are about 0.03% and 0.07%. Therefore, the re-oxidation should be controlled to ensure the integrity, and a lower re-oxidation temperature can decrease the stress and failure probability.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Significance in the increase of women psychiatrists in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ha Kyoung; Kim, Soo In

2008-01-01

The number of female doctors has increased in Korea; 18.9% (13,083) of the total medical doctors registered (69,097) were women in 2006, compared to 13.6% (2,216) in 1975. The proportion of female doctors will jump up by 2010 considering that nearly 40% of the medical students are women as of today. This trend has had strong influence on the field of psychiatry; the percentage of women psychiatrists rose from 1.6 (6)% to 18% (453), from 1975 to 2006 and now women residents comprise 39% (206) of all. This is not only a reflection of a social phenomenon of the increase in professional women but also attributed to some specific characteristics of the psychiatry. Psychiatric practice may come more natural to women. While clinical activities of women psychiatrists are expanding, there are few women leaders and much less women are involving in academic activities in this field as yet. Though there is less sexual discrimination in the field of psychiatry, women psychiatrists are still having a lot of difficulties in balancing work and family matters. Many women psychiatrists also report they've ever felt an implied discrimination in their careers. In this study, we are to identify the characteristics of women psychiatrists and to explore the significance of the increase in women psychiatrists in Korea and the situation in which they are.

The transmission probability method in one-dimensional cylindrical geometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, I.E.

1983-01-01

The collision probability method widely used in solving the problems of neutron transpopt in a reactor cell is reliable for simple cells with small number of zones. The increase of the number of zones and also taking into account the anisotropy of scattering greatly increase the scope of calculations. In order to reduce the time of calculation the transmission probability method is suggested to be used for flux calculation in one-dimensional cylindrical geometry taking into account the scattering anisotropy. The efficiency of the suggested method is verified using the one-group calculations for cylindrical cells. The use of the transmission probability method allows to present completely angular and spatial dependences is neutrons distributions without the increase in the scope of calculations. The method is especially effective in solving the multi-group problems

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

2015-10-01

The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

A Study of Probability Models in Monitoring Environmental Pollution in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. E. Oguntunde

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In Lagos State, Nigeria, pollutant emissions were monitored across the state to detect any significant change which may cause harm to human health and the environment at large. In this research, three theoretical distributions, Weibull, lognormal, and gamma distributions, were examined on the carbon monoxide observations to determine the best fit. The characteristics of the pollutant observation were established and the probabilities of exceeding the Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency (LASEPA and the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (FEPA acceptable limits have been successfully predicted. Increase in the use of vehicles and increase in the establishment of industries have been found not to contribute significantly to the high level of carbon monoxide concentration in Lagos State for the period studied.

The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imre Pázsit

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

Influence of interference terms on probability of color connections among partons in e+e-→qq-bar + ng process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Yi; Xie Qubing; Li Shiyuan

2003-01-01

Large N c approximation is adopted in popular e + e - event generators where the production probability of singlet chain states is 100% and that of color separate states is 0. In the real world N c =3, we investigate the origin and character of color and kinematics aspects in interference terms. We find that the production probability of color singlet chain states decreases from 83%, 77% to 67%, 58% for qq-bar + 2g and qq-bar + 3g system respectively after considering the interference terms. Especially, the production probability of color separate states increases to twice of that without interference terms for qq-bar + 2g. Hence when n is larger, we can expect that the production probability of singlet chain states will be far less than 1 and that of color separate states will significantly increase when n is larger

Six weeks of structured exercise training and hypocaloric diet increases the probability of ovulation after clomiphene citrate in overweight and obese patients with polycystic ovary syndrome: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Palomba, S; Falbo, A; Giallauria, F; Russo, T; Rocca, M; Tolino, A; Zullo, F; Orio, F

2010-11-01

Clomiphene citrate (CC) is the first-line therapy for the induction of ovulation in infertile women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), but ∼20% of patients are unresponsive. The aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that a 6-week intervention that consisted of structured exercise training (SET) and hypocaloric diet increases the probability of ovulation after CC in overweight and obese CC-resistant PCOS patients. A cohort of 96 overweight and obese CC-resistant PCOS patients was enrolled consecutively in a three-arm randomized, parallel, controlled, assessor-blinded clinical trial. The three interventions were: SET plus hypocaloric diet for 6 weeks (Group A); 2 weeks of observation followed by one cycle of CC therapy (Group B); and SET plus hypocaloric diet for 6 weeks, with one cycle of CC after the first 2 weeks (Group C). The primary end-point was the ovulation rate. Other reproductive data, as well as anthropometric, hormonal and metabolic data, were also collected and considered as secondary end points. After 6 weeks of SET plus hypocaloric diet, the ovulation rate was significantly (P =0.008) higher in Group C [12/32 (37.5%)] than in Groups A [4/32 (12.5%)] and B [3/32 (9.4%)] with relative risks of 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-8.3; P = 0.035] and 4.0 (95% CI 1.2-12.8; P = 0.020) compared with Groups A and B, respectively. Compared with baseline, in Groups A and C, a significant improvement in clinical and biochemical androgen and insulin sensitivity indexes was observed. In the same two groups, the insulin sensitivity index was significantly (P hypocaloric diet was effective in increasing the probability of ovulation under CC treatment. The study was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov:NCT0100468.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

OpenAIRE

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2015-01-01

We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

THE SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT AND NONTRANSITORY INCREASE IN PRICES (SSNIP TEST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liviana Niminet

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The Small but Significant Nontransitory Increase in Price Test was designed to define the relevant market by concepts of product, geographical area and time. This test, also called the ,,hypothetical monopolistic test” is the subject of many researches both economical and legal as it deals with economic concepts as well as with legally aspects.

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

Science.gov (United States)

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased frequency of retinopathy of prematurity over the last decade and significant regional differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmström, Gerd; Tornqvist, Kristina; Al-Hawasi, Abbas; Nilsson, Åsa; Wallin, Agneta; Hellström, Ann

2018-03-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) causes childhood blindness globally in prematurely born infants. Although increased levels of oxygen supply lead to increased survival and reduced frequency of cerebral palsy, increased incidence of ROP is reported. With the help of a Swedish register for ROP, SWEDROP, national and regional incidences of ROP and frequencies of treatment were evaluated from 2008 to 2015 (n = 5734), as well as before and after targets of provided oxygen changed from 85-89% to 91-95% in 2014. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was found in 31.9% (1829/5734) of all infants with a gestational age (GA) of <31 weeks at birth and 5.7% of the infants (329/5734) had been treated for ROP. Analyses of the national data revealed an increased incidence of ROP during the 8-year study period (p = 0.003), but there was no significant increase in the frequency of treatment. There were significant differences between the seven health regions of Sweden, regarding both incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment (p < 0.001). Comparison of regional data before and after the new oxygen targets revealed a significant increase in treated ROP in one region [OR: 2.24 (CI: 1.11-4.49), p = 0.024] and a borderline increase in one other [OR: 3.08 (CI: 0.99-9.60), p = 0.052]. The Swedish national ROP register revealed an increased incidence of ROP during an 8-year period and significant regional differences regarding the incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of Significance of Diffusely Increased Bilateral Renal Uptake on Bone Scan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sung, Mi Sook; Yang, Woo Jin; Byun, Jae Young; Park, Jung Mi; Shinn, Kyung Sub; Bahk, Yong Whee

1990-01-01

Unexpected renal abnormality can be detected on bone scan using 99m Tc-MDP. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the diagnostic significance of diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake on bone scan. 1,500 bone scan were reviewed and 43 scans which showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake were selected for analysis. Laboratory findings for renal and liver function tests including routine urinalysis were reviewed in 43 patients. 26 of 43 case showed abnormality in urinalysis and renal function study. 20 of 43 cases showed abnormal liver function study and 3 of these cases were diagnosed as hepatorenal syndrome later. 13 of those 20 cases had liver cirrhosis with or without hepatoma. 12 of 43 cases showed abnormality both in renal and liver function studies. 2 of 43 cases showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake after chemotherapy for cancer but not on previous scans before chemotherapy. 2 of 43 cases showed hypercalcaemia and 8 of 43 cases had multifocal bone uptake due to metastasis or benign bone lesion. But the latter showed no hypercalcaemia at all. There was no significant correlation between increased renal uptake and MDP uptake in soft tissue other than kidneys. This study raised the possibility that the impaired liver and/or renal function may result in diffuse increase of bilateral renal uptake of MDP of unknown mechanism. It seems to need further study on this correlation.

Evaluation of Significance of Diffusely Increased Bilateral Renal Uptake on Bone Scan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sung, Mi Sook; Yang, Woo Jin; Byun, Jae Young; Park, Jung Mi; Shinn, Kyung Sub; Bahk, Yong Whee [Catholic University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1990-03-15

Unexpected renal abnormality can be detected on bone scan using {sup 99m}Tc-MDP. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the diagnostic significance of diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake on bone scan. 1,500 bone scan were reviewed and 43 scans which showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake were selected for analysis. Laboratory findings for renal and liver function tests including routine urinalysis were reviewed in 43 patients. 26 of 43 case showed abnormality in urinalysis and renal function study. 20 of 43 cases showed abnormal liver function study and 3 of these cases were diagnosed as hepatorenal syndrome later. 13 of those 20 cases had liver cirrhosis with or without hepatoma. 12 of 43 cases showed abnormality both in renal and liver function studies. 2 of 43 cases showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake after chemotherapy for cancer but not on previous scans before chemotherapy. 2 of 43 cases showed hypercalcaemia and 8 of 43 cases had multifocal bone uptake due to metastasis or benign bone lesion. But the latter showed no hypercalcaemia at all. There was no significant correlation between increased renal uptake and MDP uptake in soft tissue other than kidneys. This study raised the possibility that the impaired liver and/or renal function may result in diffuse increase of bilateral renal uptake of MDP of unknown mechanism. It seems to need further study on this correlation.

St. John's wort significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of methotrexate in rats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Shih-Ying; Juang, Shin-Hun; Tsai, Shang-Yuan; Chao, Pei-Dawn Lee; Hou, Yu-Chi

2012-01-01

St. John's wort (SJW, Hypericum perforatum) is one of the popular nutraceuticals for treating depression. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window. This study investigated the effect of SJW on MTX pharmacokinetics in rats. Rats were orally given MTX alone and coadministered with 300 and 150 mg/kg of SJW, and 25 mg/kg of diclofenac, respectively. Blood was withdrawn at specific time points and serum MTX concentrations were assayed by a specific monoclonal fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. The results showed that 300 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of MTX by 163% and 60%, respectively, and 150 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t of MTX by 55%. In addition, diclofenac enhanced the C max of MTX by 110%. The mortality of rats treated with SJW was higher than that of controls. In conclusion, coadministration of SJW significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of MTX. The combined use of MTX with SJW would need to be with caution. -- Highlights: ► St. John's wort significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of methotrexate. ► Coadministration of St. John's wort increased the exposure and toxicity of methotrexate. ► The combined use of methotrexate with St. John's wort will need to be with caution.

Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

CERN Document Server

Calin, Ovidiu

2014-01-01

This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

Quantum Probability Zero-One Law for Sequential Terminal Events

Science.gov (United States)

Rehder, Wulf

1980-07-01

On the basis of the Jauch-Piron quantum probability calculus a zero-one law for sequential terminal events is proven, and the significance of certain crucial axioms in the quantum probability calculus is discussed. The result shows that the Jauch-Piron set of axioms is appropriate for the non-Boolean algebra of sequential events.

An array-based study of increased system lifetime probability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nesgaard, Carsten

2003-01-01

Society's increased dependence on electronic systems calls for highly reliable power supplies comprised of multiple converters working in parallel. This paper describes a redundancy control scheme, based on the array technology that increases the overall reliability quite considerably and thereby...

An array-based study of increased system lifetime probability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nesgaard, Carsten

2002-01-01

Society's increased dependence on electronic systems calls for highly reliable power supplies comprised of multiple converters working in parallel. This paper describes a redundancy control scheme, based on the array technology that increases the overall reliability quite considerably and thereby...

Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard F Murray

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

2017-09-01

Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovacs, Z.

1985-01-01

The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)

Introduction to Probability, Part 1 - Basic Concepts. Student Text. Revised Edition.

Science.gov (United States)

Blakeslee, David W.; And Others

This book is designed to introduce the reader to some fundamental ideas about probability. The mathematical theory of probability plays an increasingly important role in science, government, industry, business, and economics. An understanding of the basic concepts of probability is essential for the study of statistical methods that are widely…

Zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Prasetya, E. B.; Utari; Purnama, B.

2017-11-01

This paper discussed about zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal (TAMR). Appearance of reversal probability in zero field investigated through micromagnetic simulation by solving stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gibert (LLG). The perpendicularly anisotropy magnetic dot of 50×50×20 nm3 is considered as single cell magnetic storage of magnetic random acces memory (MRAM). Thermally assisted magnetization reversal was performed by cooling writing process from near/almost Curie point to room temperature on 20 times runs for different randomly magnetized state. The results show that the probability reversal under zero magnetic field decreased with the increase of the energy barrier. The zero-field probability switching of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T and the reversal probability become zero noted at energy barrier of 2348 k B T. The higest zero-field switching probability of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T which corespond to magnetif field of 150 Oe for switching.

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Subspace Learning via Local Probability Distribution for Hyperspectral Image Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiwu Luo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The computational procedure of hyperspectral image (HSI is extremely complex, not only due to the high dimensional information, but also due to the highly correlated data structure. The need of effective processing and analyzing of HSI has met many difficulties. It has been evidenced that dimensionality reduction has been found to be a powerful tool for high dimensional data analysis. Local Fisher’s liner discriminant analysis (LFDA is an effective method to treat HSI processing. In this paper, a novel approach, called PD-LFDA, is proposed to overcome the weakness of LFDA. PD-LFDA emphasizes the probability distribution (PD in LFDA, where the maximum distance is replaced with local variance for the construction of weight matrix and the class prior probability is applied to compute the affinity matrix. The proposed approach increases the discriminant ability of the transformed features in low dimensional space. Experimental results on Indian Pines 1992 data indicate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the traditional alternatives.

Dynamic probability of reinforcement for cooperation: Random game termination in the centipede game.

Science.gov (United States)

Krockow, Eva M; Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D

2018-03-01

Experimental games have previously been used to study principles of human interaction. Many such games are characterized by iterated or repeated designs that model dynamic relationships, including reciprocal cooperation. To enable the study of infinite game repetitions and to avoid endgame effects of lower cooperation toward the final game round, investigators have introduced random termination rules. This study extends previous research that has focused narrowly on repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games by conducting a controlled experiment of two-player, random termination Centipede games involving probabilistic reinforcement and characterized by the longest decision sequences reported in the empirical literature to date (24 decision nodes). Specifically, we assessed mean exit points and cooperation rates, and compared the effects of four different termination rules: no random game termination, random game termination with constant termination probability, random game termination with increasing termination probability, and random game termination with decreasing termination probability. We found that although mean exit points were lower for games with shorter expected game lengths, the subjects' cooperativeness was significantly reduced only in the most extreme condition with decreasing computer termination probability and an expected game length of two decision nodes. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

Time of Arrival Estimation in Probability-Controlled Generalized CDMA Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hagit Messer

2007-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, more and more wireless communications systems are required to provide also a positioning measurement. In code division multiple access (CDMA communication systems, the positioning accuracy is significantly degraded by the multiple access interference (MAI caused by other users in the system. This MAI is commonly managed by a power control mechanism, and yet, MAI has a major effect on positioning accuracy. Probability control is a recently introduced interference management mechanism. In this mechanism, a user with excess power chooses not to transmit some of its symbols. The information in the nontransmitted symbols is recovered by an error-correcting code (ECC, while all other users receive a more reliable data during these quiet periods. Previous research had shown that the implementation of a probability control mechanism can significantly reduce the MAI. In this paper, we show that probability control also improves the positioning accuracy. We focus on time-of-arrival (TOA based positioning systems. We analyze the TOA estimation performance in a generalized CDMA system, in which the probability control mechanism is employed, where the transmitted signal is noncontinuous with a symbol transmission probability smaller than 1. The accuracy of the TOA estimation is determined using appropriate modifications of the Cramer-Rao bound on the delay estimation. Keeping the average transmission power constant, we show that the TOA accuracy of each user does not depend on its transmission probability, while being a nondecreasing function of the transmission probability of any other user. Therefore, a generalized, noncontinuous CDMA system with a probability control mechanism can always achieve better positioning performance, for all users in the network, than a conventional, continuous, CDMA system.

Measurement of Plutonium-240 Angular Momentum Dependent Fission Probabilities Using the Alpha-Alpha' Reaction

Science.gov (United States)

Koglin, Johnathon

Accurate nuclear reaction data from a few keV to tens of MeV and across the table of nuclides is essential to a number of applications of nuclear physics, including national security, nuclear forensics, nuclear astrophysics, and nuclear energy. Precise determination of (n, f) and neutron capture cross sections for reactions in high- ux environments are particularly important for a proper understanding of nuclear reactor performance and stellar nucleosynthesis. In these extreme environments reactions on short-lived and otherwise difficult-to-produce isotopes play a significant role in system evolution and provide insights into the types of nuclear processes taking place; a detailed understanding of these processes is necessary to properly determine cross sections far from stability. Indirect methods are often attempted to measure cross sections on isotopes that are difficult to separate in a laboratory setting. Using the surrogate approach, the same compound nucleus from the reaction of interest is created through a "surrogate" reaction on a different isotope and the resulting decay is measured. This result is combined with appropriate reaction theory for compound nucleus population, from which the desired cross sections can be inferred. This method has shown promise, but the theoretical framework often lacks necessary experimental data to constrain models. In this work, dual arrays of silicon telescope particle identification detectors and photovoltaic (solar) cell fission fragment detectors have been used to measure the fission probability of the 240Pu(alpha, alpha'f) reaction - a surrogate for the 239Pu(n, f) - and fission of 35.9(2)MeV at eleven scattering angles from 40° to 140° in 10° intervals and at nuclear excitation energies up to 16MeV. Within experimental uncertainty, the maximum fission probability was observed at the neutron separation energy for each alpha scattering angle. Fission probabilities were separated into five 500 keV bins from 5:5MeV to

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT IN CASE OF ROMANIAN COMPANIES LISTED ON STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marton Noemi, Racz Timea Erzsebet

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The importance of estimation of a firm's probability of default increased significantly during the economic and financial crisis for financial institutions, which can be explained by the fact that the share of nonperforming loans increased in this period. The probability of default can be estimated with structural models, which have on base the methodology developed by Merton (1974, methodology used by Moody's Corporation (known as KMV Merton model. The aim of this study is to estimate the probability of default of companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange using this methodology. This approach was widely used in the literature by many researchers (i.e., Kealhofer and Kurbat (2000, Crosbie and Bohn (2002, Duffie and Wang (2004, Bharath and Shumway (2004, 2008. In Romania this methodology was empirically tested by Codirlaşu (2007, who estimated using Merton's methodology the probability of default of companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, respectively by Bobircă et al. (2008, where the probabilities of default were estimated in case of 42 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange for 2000-2008 time period. In this paper we used Merton's model, which assumes that a company defaults if the value of its assets is less than the promised dept repayment at time T. The process of estimating the probability of default starts from the following firm specific variables: the market value of the firm's assets, the share prices, the value of the liabilities and the risk-free rate. The analyzed period is 2003-2010, containing the economic and financial crisis period, too. Analyzing the financial statements of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, we determined the input parameters of the model and calculated the quarterly probabilities of default of each analyzed company. According to our results the probabilities of default have a reduced value in the majority of the cases.

Foundations of quantization for probability distributions

CERN Document Server

Graf, Siegfried

2000-01-01

Due to the rapidly increasing need for methods of data compression, quantization has become a flourishing field in signal and image processing and information theory. The same techniques are also used in statistics (cluster analysis), pattern recognition, and operations research (optimal location of service centers). The book gives the first mathematically rigorous account of the fundamental theory underlying these applications. The emphasis is on the asymptotics of quantization errors for absolutely continuous and special classes of singular probabilities (surface measures, self-similar measures) presenting some new results for the first time. Written for researchers and graduate students in probability theory the monograph is of potential interest to all people working in the disciplines mentioned above.

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

CERN Document Server

Briggs, William

2016-01-01

This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

Continuous background light significantly increases flashing-light enhancement of photosynthesis and growth of microalgae.

Science.gov (United States)

Abu-Ghosh, Said; Fixler, Dror; Dubinsky, Zvy; Iluz, David

2015-01-01

Under specific conditions, flashing light enhances the photosynthesis rate in comparison to continuous illumination. Here we show that a combination of flashing light and continuous background light with the same integrated photon dose as continuous or flashing light alone can be used to significantly enhance photosynthesis and increase microalgae growth. To test this hypothesis, the green microalga Dunaliella salina was exposed to three different light regimes: continuous light, flashing light, and concomitant application of both. Algal growth was compared under three different integrated light quantities; low, intermediate, and moderately high. Under the combined light regime, there was a substantial increase in all algal growth parameters, with an enhanced photosynthesis rate, within 3days. Our strategy demonstrates a hitherto undescribed significant increase in photosynthesis and algal growth rates, which is beyond the increase by flashing light alone. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large deviations and idempotent probability

CERN Document Server

Puhalskii, Anatolii

2001-01-01

In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

Breast-cancer-associated metastasis is significantly increased in a model of autoimmune arthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Das Roy, Lopamudra; Pathangey, Latha B; Tinder, Teresa L; Schettini, Jorge L; Gruber, Helen E; Mukherjee, Pinku

2009-01-01

Sites of chronic inflammation are often associated with the establishment and growth of various malignancies including breast cancer. A common inflammatory condition in humans is autoimmune arthritis (AA) that causes inflammation and deformity of the joints. Other systemic effects associated with arthritis include increased cellular infiltration and inflammation of the lungs. Several studies have reported statistically significant risk ratios between AA and breast cancer. Despite this knowledge, available for a decade, it has never been questioned if the site of chronic inflammation linked to AA creates a milieu that attracts tumor cells to home and grow in the inflamed bones and lungs which are frequent sites of breast cancer metastasis. To determine if chronic inflammation induced by autoimmune arthritis contributes to increased breast cancer-associated metastasis, we generated mammary gland tumors in SKG mice that were genetically prone to develop AA. Two breast cancer cell lines, one highly metastatic (4T1) and the other non-metastatic (TUBO) were used to generate the tumors in the mammary fat pad. Lung and bone metastasis and the associated inflammatory milieu were evaluated in the arthritic versus the non-arthritic mice. We report a three-fold increase in lung metastasis and a significant increase in the incidence of bone metastasis in the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice compared to non-arthritic control mice. We also report that the metastatic breast cancer cells augment the severity of arthritis resulting in a vicious cycle that increases both bone destruction and metastasis. Enhanced neutrophilic and granulocytic infiltration in lungs and bone of the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice and subsequent increase in circulating levels of proinflammatory cytokines, such as macrophage colony stimulating factor (M-CSF), interleukin-17 (IL-17), interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) may contribute

Breast cancer-associated metastasis is significantly increased in a model of autoimmune arthritis

Science.gov (United States)

Das Roy, Lopamudra; Pathangey, Latha B; Tinder, Teresa L; Schettini, Jorge L; Gruber, Helen E; Mukherjee, Pinku

2009-01-01

Introduction Sites of chronic inflammation are often associated with the establishment and growth of various malignancies including breast cancer. A common inflammatory condition in humans is autoimmune arthritis (AA) that causes inflammation and deformity of the joints. Other systemic effects associated with arthritis include increased cellular infiltration and inflammation of the lungs. Several studies have reported statistically significant risk ratios between AA and breast cancer. Despite this knowledge, available for a decade, it has never been questioned if the site of chronic inflammation linked to AA creates a milieu that attracts tumor cells to home and grow in the inflamed bones and lungs which are frequent sites of breast cancer metastasis. Methods To determine if chronic inflammation induced by autoimmune arthritis contributes to increased breast cancer-associated metastasis, we generated mammary gland tumors in SKG mice that were genetically prone to develop AA. Two breast cancer cell lines, one highly metastatic (4T1) and the other non-metastatic (TUBO) were used to generate the tumors in the mammary fat pad. Lung and bone metastasis and the associated inflammatory milieu were evaluated in the arthritic versus the non-arthritic mice. Results We report a three-fold increase in lung metastasis and a significant increase in the incidence of bone metastasis in the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice compared to non-arthritic control mice. We also report that the metastatic breast cancer cells augment the severity of arthritis resulting in a vicious cycle that increases both bone destruction and metastasis. Enhanced neutrophilic and granulocytic infiltration in lungs and bone of the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice and subsequent increase in circulating levels of proinflammatory cytokines, such as macrophage colony stimulating factor (M-CSF), interleukin-17 (IL-17), interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and tumor necrosis factor

Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amber M Sprenger

2011-06-01

Full Text Available We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008 that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention at encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments.

Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment

Science.gov (United States)

Sprenger, Amber M.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Atkins, Sharona M.; Franco-Watkins, Ana M.; Thomas, Rick P.; Lange, Nicholas; Abbs, Brandon

2011-01-01

We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas et al., 2008) that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect the degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention during encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments. PMID:21734897

Effect of Urban Green Spaces and Flooded Area Type on Flooding Probability

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Hyomin Kim

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Countermeasures to urban flooding should consider long-term perspectives, because climate change impacts are unpredictable and complex. Urban green spaces have emerged as a potential option to reduce urban flood risks, and their effectiveness has been highlighted in notable urban water management studies. In this study, flooded areas in Seoul, Korea, were divided into four flooded area types by cluster analysis based on topographic and physical characteristics and verified using discriminant analysis. After division by flooded area type, logistic regression analysis was performed to determine how the flooding probability changes with variations in green space area. Type 1 included regions where flooding occurred in a drainage basin that had a flood risk management infrastructure (FRMI. In Type 2, the slope was steep; the TWI (Topographic Wetness Index was relatively low; and soil drainage was favorable. Type 3 represented the gentlest sloping areas, and these were associated with the highest TWI values. In addition, these areas had the worst soil drainage. Type 4 had moderate slopes, imperfect soil drainage and lower than average TWI values. We found that green spaces exerted a considerable influence on urban flooding probabilities in Seoul, and flooding probabilities could be reduced by over 50% depending on the green space area and the locations where green spaces were introduced. Increasing the area of green spaces was the most effective method of decreasing flooding probability in Type 3 areas. In Type 2 areas, the maximum hourly precipitation affected the flooding probability significantly, and the flooding probability in these areas was high despite the extensive green space area. These findings can contribute towards establishing guidelines for urban spatial planning to respond to urban flooding.

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

Noninvasive Coronary Angiography using 64-Detector-Row Computed Tomography in Patients with a Low to Moderate Pretest Probability of Significant Coronary Artery Disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlosser, T.; Mohrs, O.K.; Magedanz, A.; Nowak, B.; Voigtlaender, T.; Barkhausen, J.; Schmermund, A.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the value of 64-detector-row computed tomography for ruling out high-grade coronary stenoses in patients with a low to moderate pretest probability of significant coronary artery disease. Material and Methods: The study included 61 patients with a suspicion of coronary artery disease on the basis of atypical angina or ambiguous findings in noninvasive stress testing and a class II indication for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). All patients were examined by 64-detector-row computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ICA. On a coronary segmental level, the presence of significant (>50% diameter) stenoses was examined. Results: In a total of 915 segments, CTA detected 62 significant stenoses. Thirty-four significant stenoses were confirmed by ICA, whereas 28 stenoses could not be confirmed by ICA. Twenty-two of them showed wall irregularities on ICA, and six were angiographically normal. Accordingly, on a coronary segmental basis, 28 false-positive and 0 false-negative findings resulted in a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 96.8%, a positive predictive value of 54.8%, and a negative predictive value of 100%. The diagnostic accuracy was 96.9%. Conclusion: Sixty-four-detector-row computed tomography reliably detects significant coronary stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease and appears to be helpful in the selection of patients who need to undergo ICA. Calcified and non-calcified plaques are detected. Grading of stenoses in areas with calcification is difficult. Frequently, stenosis severity is overestimated by 64-detector-row computed tomography

Noninvasive Coronary Angiography using 64-Detector-Row Computed Tomography in Patients with a Low to Moderate Pretest Probability of Significant Coronary Artery Disease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schlosser, T.; Mohrs, O.K.; Magedanz, A.; Nowak, B.; Voigtlaender, T.; Barkhausen, J.; Schmermund, A. [Dept. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology and Neuroradiology, University Hospital Essen, Essen (Germany)

2007-04-15

Purpose: To evaluate the value of 64-detector-row computed tomography for ruling out high-grade coronary stenoses in patients with a low to moderate pretest probability of significant coronary artery disease. Material and Methods: The study included 61 patients with a suspicion of coronary artery disease on the basis of atypical angina or ambiguous findings in noninvasive stress testing and a class II indication for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). All patients were examined by 64-detector-row computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ICA. On a coronary segmental level, the presence of significant (>50% diameter) stenoses was examined. Results: In a total of 915 segments, CTA detected 62 significant stenoses. Thirty-four significant stenoses were confirmed by ICA, whereas 28 stenoses could not be confirmed by ICA. Twenty-two of them showed wall irregularities on ICA, and six were angiographically normal. Accordingly, on a coronary segmental basis, 28 false-positive and 0 false-negative findings resulted in a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 96.8%, a positive predictive value of 54.8%, and a negative predictive value of 100%. The diagnostic accuracy was 96.9%. Conclusion: Sixty-four-detector-row computed tomography reliably detects significant coronary stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease and appears to be helpful in the selection of patients who need to undergo ICA. Calcified and non-calcified plaques are detected. Grading of stenoses in areas with calcification is difficult. Frequently, stenosis severity is overestimated by 64-detector-row computed tomography.

Camera trap arrays improve detection probability of wildlife: Investigating study design considerations using an empirical dataset.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Kelly M; Nathan, Lucas R; Liberati, Marjorie R; Tingley, Morgan W; Vokoun, Jason C; Rittenhouse, Tracy A G

2017-01-01

Camera trapping is a standard tool in ecological research and wildlife conservation. Study designs, particularly for small-bodied or cryptic wildlife species often attempt to boost low detection probabilities by using non-random camera placement or baited cameras, which may bias data, or incorrectly estimate detection and occupancy. We investigated the ability of non-baited, multi-camera arrays to increase detection probabilities of wildlife. Study design components were evaluated for their influence on wildlife detectability by iteratively parsing an empirical dataset (1) by different sizes of camera arrays deployed (1-10 cameras), and (2) by total season length (1-365 days). Four species from our dataset that represented a range of body sizes and differing degrees of presumed detectability based on life history traits were investigated: white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), bobcat (Lynx rufus), raccoon (Procyon lotor), and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana). For all species, increasing from a single camera to a multi-camera array significantly improved detection probability across the range of season lengths and number of study sites evaluated. The use of a two camera array increased survey detection an average of 80% (range 40-128%) from the detection probability of a single camera across the four species. Species that were detected infrequently benefited most from a multiple-camera array, where the addition of up to eight cameras produced significant increases in detectability. However, for species detected at high frequencies, single cameras produced a season-long (i.e, the length of time over which cameras are deployed and actively monitored) detectability greater than 0.75. These results highlight the need for researchers to be critical about camera trap study designs based on their intended target species, as detectability for each focal species responded differently to array size and season length. We suggest that researchers a priori identify

Camera trap arrays improve detection probability of wildlife: Investigating study design considerations using an empirical dataset.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly M O'Connor

Full Text Available Camera trapping is a standard tool in ecological research and wildlife conservation. Study designs, particularly for small-bodied or cryptic wildlife species often attempt to boost low detection probabilities by using non-random camera placement or baited cameras, which may bias data, or incorrectly estimate detection and occupancy. We investigated the ability of non-baited, multi-camera arrays to increase detection probabilities of wildlife. Study design components were evaluated for their influence on wildlife detectability by iteratively parsing an empirical dataset (1 by different sizes of camera arrays deployed (1-10 cameras, and (2 by total season length (1-365 days. Four species from our dataset that represented a range of body sizes and differing degrees of presumed detectability based on life history traits were investigated: white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus, bobcat (Lynx rufus, raccoon (Procyon lotor, and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana. For all species, increasing from a single camera to a multi-camera array significantly improved detection probability across the range of season lengths and number of study sites evaluated. The use of a two camera array increased survey detection an average of 80% (range 40-128% from the detection probability of a single camera across the four species. Species that were detected infrequently benefited most from a multiple-camera array, where the addition of up to eight cameras produced significant increases in detectability. However, for species detected at high frequencies, single cameras produced a season-long (i.e, the length of time over which cameras are deployed and actively monitored detectability greater than 0.75. These results highlight the need for researchers to be critical about camera trap study designs based on their intended target species, as detectability for each focal species responded differently to array size and season length. We suggest that researchers a priori

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Probability and information theory, with applications to radar

CERN Document Server

Woodward, P M; Higinbotham, W

1964-01-01

Electronics and Instrumentation, Second Edition, Volume 3: Probability and Information Theory with Applications to Radar provides information pertinent to the development on research carried out in electronics and applied physics. This book presents the established mathematical techniques that provide the code in which so much of the mathematical theory of electronics and radar is expressed.Organized into eight chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the geometry of probability distributions in which moments play a significant role. This text then examines the mathematical methods in

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting (WINDP).

Science.gov (United States)

1981-04-01

llq. h. ,c ilrac (t’ small probabilities (below 107c) is limited II(t’h, numb(r o!, significant digits given: therefore 1t( huld lU r~ruidvd as being...APPLIED SCI. CORP. ENGLAMD ;7MOS. SCIENCES OEPT., LIBRARY ATTN: LIBARY , SUITE 500 400 WASHINGTON AVE. 6811 KENILWORTH AVE. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM

Reliability of structures by using probability and fatigue theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Dong Hyeok; Park, Yeon Chang

2008-01-01

Methodologies to calculate failure probability and to estimate the reliability of fatigue loaded structures are developed. The applicability of the methodologies is evaluated with the help of the fatigue crack growth models suggested by Paris and Walker. The probability theories such as the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) are utilized. It is found that the failure probability decreases with the increase of the design fatigue life and the applied minimum stress, the decrease of the initial edge crack size, the applied maximum stress and the slope of Paris equation. Furthermore, according to the sensitivity analysis of random variables, the slope of Pairs equation affects the failure probability dominantly among other random variables in the Paris and the Walker models

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

Mechanistic considerations used in the development of the probability of failure in transient increases in power (PROFIT) pellet-zircaloy cladding (thermo-mechanical-chemical) interactions (pci) fuel failure model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pankaskie, P.J.

1980-05-01

A fuel Pellet-Zircaloy Cladding (thermo-mechanical-chemical) interactions (PCI) failure model for estimating the Probability of Failure in Transient Increases in Power (PROFIT) was developed. PROFIT is based on (1) standard statistical methods applied to available PCI fuel failure data and (2) a mechanistic analysis of the environmental and strain-rate-dependent stress versus strain characteristics of Zircaloy cladding. The statistical analysis of fuel failures attributable to PCI suggested that parameters in addition to power, transient increase in power, and burnup are needed to define PCI fuel failures in terms of probability estimates with known confidence limits. The PROFIT model, therefore, introduces an environmental and strain-rate dependent Strain Energy Absorption to Failure (SEAF) concept to account for the stress versus strain anomalies attributable to interstitial-dislocation interaction effects in the Zircaloy cladding

The Brazilian policy of withholding treatment for ADHD is probably increasing health and social costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos R. Maia

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: To estimate the economic consequences of the current Brazilian government policy for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD treatment and how much the country would save if treatment with immediate-release methylphenidate (MPH-IR, as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO, was offered to patients with ADHD. Method: Based on conservative previous analyses, we assumed that 257,662 patients aged 5 to 19 years are not receiving ADHD treatment in Brazil. We estimated the direct costs and savings of treating and not treating ADHD on the basis of the following data: a spending on ADHD patients directly attributable to grade retention and emergency department visits; and b savings due to impact of ADHD treatment on these outcomes. Results: Considering outcomes for which data on the impact of MPH-IR treatment are available, Brazil is probably wasting approximately R$ 1.841 billion/year on the direct consequences of not treating ADHD in this age range alone. On the other hand, treating ADHD in accordance with WHO recommendations would save approximately R$ 1.163 billion/year. Conclusions: By increasing investments on MPH-IR treatment for ADHD to around R$ 377 million/year, the country would save approximately 3.1 times more than is currently spent on the consequences of not treating ADHD in patients aged 5 to 19 years.

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

A shift from significance test to hypothesis test through power analysis in medical research.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, G

2006-01-01

Medical research literature until recently, exhibited substantial dominance of the Fisher's significance test approach of statistical inference concentrating more on probability of type I error over Neyman-Pearson's hypothesis test considering both probability of type I and II error. Fisher's approach dichotomises results into significant or not significant results with a P value. The Neyman-Pearson's approach talks of acceptance or rejection of null hypothesis. Based on the same theory these two approaches deal with same objective and conclude in their own way. The advancement in computing techniques and availability of statistical software have resulted in increasing application of power calculations in medical research and thereby reporting the result of significance tests in the light of power of the test also. Significance test approach, when it incorporates power analysis contains the essence of hypothesis test approach. It may be safely argued that rising application of power analysis in medical research may have initiated a shift from Fisher's significance test to Neyman-Pearson's hypothesis test procedure.

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1982-01-01

Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

Probability for Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

Fixation probability in a two-locus intersexual selection model.

Science.gov (United States)

Durand, Guillermo; Lessard, Sabin

2016-06-01

We study a two-locus model of intersexual selection in a finite haploid population reproducing according to a discrete-time Moran model with a trait locus expressed in males and a preference locus expressed in females. We show that the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a male ornament introduced at random at the trait locus given any initial frequency state at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and recombination, weak or strong. Moreover, this probability exceeds the initial frequency of the mutant allele even in the case of a costly male ornament if intersexual selection is not too weak. On the other hand, the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a female preference towards a male ornament introduced at random at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and weak recombination if the female preference is not costly, and is strong enough in the case of a costly male ornament. The analysis relies on an extension of the ancestral recombination-selection graph for samples of haplotypes to take into account events of intersexual selection, while the symbolic calculation of the fixation probabilities is made possible in a reasonable time by an optimizing algorithm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A probability model for the failure of pressure containing parts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, H.M.

1978-01-01

The model provides a method of estimating the order of magnitude of the leakage failure probability of pressure containing parts. It is a fatigue based model which makes use of the statistics available for both specimens and vessels. Some novel concepts are introduced but essentially the model simply quantifies the obvious i.e. that failure probability increases with increases in stress levels, number of cycles, volume of material and volume of weld metal. A further model based on fracture mechanics estimates the catastrophic fraction of leakage failures. (author)

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Reduced probability of smoking cessation in men with increasing number of job losses and partnership breakdowns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kriegbaum, Margit; Larsen, Anne Mette; Christensen, Ulla

2011-01-01

and to study joint exposure to both. Methods Birth cohort study of smoking cessation of 6232 Danish men born in 1953 with a follow-up at age 51 (response rate 66.2%). History of unemployment and cohabitation was measured annually using register data. Information on smoking cessation was obtained...... by a questionnaire. Results The probability of smoking cessation decreased with the number of job losses (ranging from 1 OR 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.64) to 3+ OR 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.55)) and of broken partnerships (ranging from 1 OR 0.74 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.85) to 3+ OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.63)). Furthermore......–23 years (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.52)). Those who never cohabited and experienced one or more job losses had a particular low chance of smoking cessation (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.30). Conclusion The numbers of job losses and of broken partnerships were both inversely associated with probability...

High temperature triggers latent variation among individuals: oviposition rate and probability for outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christer Björkman

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations.Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20 °C. It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20 °C continued to do so when transferred to 12 °C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20 °C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12 °C. When transferred back to 20 °C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature.If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events.

Dual Diagnosis and Suicide Probability in Poly-Drug Users.

Science.gov (United States)

Youssef, Ismail M; Fahmy, Magda T; Haggag, Wafaa L; Mohamed, Khalid A; Baalash, Amany A

2016-02-01

To determine the frequency of suicidal thoughts and suicidal probability among poly-substance abusers in Saudi population, and to examine the relation between dual diagnosis and suicidal thoughts. Case control study. Al-Baha Psychiatric Hospital, Saudi Arabia, from May 2011 to June 2012. Participants were 239 subjects, aged 18 - 45 years. We reviewed 122 individuals who fulfilled the DSM-IV-TR criteria of substance abuse for two or more substances, and their data were compared with that collected from 117 control persons. Suicidal cases were highly present among poly-substance abusers 64.75%. Amphetamine and cannabis were the most abused substances, (87.7% and 70.49%, respectively). Astatistically significant association with suicidality was found with longer duration of substance abuse (p Suicidal cases showed significant higher scores (p suicide probability scale and higher scores in Beck depressive inventory (p Abusing certain substances for long duration, in addition to comorbid psychiatric disorders especially with disturbed-mood element, may trigger suicidal thoughts in poly-substance abusers. Depression and suicide probability is common consequences of substance abuse.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

Fetal rat metabonome alteration by prenatal caffeine ingestion probably due to the increased circulatory glucocorticoid level and altered peripheral glucose and lipid metabolic pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yansong; Xu, Dan; Feng, Jianghua; Kou, Hao; Liang, Gai; Yu, Hong; He, Xiaohua; Zhang, Baifang; Chen, Liaobin; Magdalou, Jacques; Wang, Hui

2012-01-01

The aims of this study were to clarify the metabonome alteration in fetal rats after prenatal caffeine ingestion and to explore the underlying mechanism pertaining to the increased fetal circulatory glucocorticoid (GC). Pregnant Wistar rats were daily intragastrically administered with different doses of caffeine (0, 20, 60 and 180 mg/kg) from gestational days (GD) 11 to 20. Metabonome of fetal plasma and amniotic fluid on GD20 were analyzed by 1 H nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabonomics. Gene and protein expressions involved in the GC metabolism, glucose and lipid metabolic pathways in fetal liver and gastrocnemius were measured by real-time RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. Fetal plasma metabonome were significantly altered by caffeine, which presents as the elevated α- and β‐glucose, reduced multiple lipid contents, varied apolipoprotein contents and increased levels of a number of amino acids. The metabonome of amniotic fluids showed a similar change as that in fetal plasma. Furthermore, the expressions of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 2 (11β-HSD-2) were decreased, while the level of blood GC and the expressions of 11β-HSD-1 and glucocorticoid receptor (GR) were increased in fetal liver and gastrocnemius. Meanwhile, the expressions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), IGF-1 receptor and insulin receptor were decreased, while the expressions of adiponectin receptor 2, leptin receptors and AMP-activated protein kinase α2 were increased after caffeine treatment. Prenatal caffeine ingestion characteristically change the fetal metabonome, which is probably attributed to the alterations of glucose and lipid metabolic pathways induced by increased circulatory GC, activated GC metabolism and enhanced GR expression in peripheral metabolic tissues. -- Highlights: ► Prenatal caffeine ingestion altered the metabonome of IUGR fetal rats. ► Caffeine altered the glucose and lipid metabolic pathways of IUGR fetal rats. ► Prenatal caffeine ingestion

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

Science.gov (United States)

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.

1976-06-01

The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

Probability of Alzheimer's disease in breast cancer survivors based on gray-matter structural network efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Vikram; Ray, William J; Rao, Arvind

2017-01-01

Breast cancer chemotherapy is associated with accelerated aging and potentially increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). We calculated the probability of AD diagnosis from brain network and demographic and genetic data obtained from 47 female AD converters and 47 matched healthy controls. We then applied this algorithm to data from 78 breast cancer survivors. The classifier discriminated between AD and healthy controls with 86% accuracy ( P  < .0001). Chemotherapy-treated breast cancer survivors demonstrated significantly higher probability of AD compared to healthy controls ( P  < .0001) and chemotherapy-naïve survivors ( P  = .007), even after stratifying for apolipoprotein e4 genotype. Chemotherapy-naïve survivors also showed higher AD probability compared to healthy controls ( P  = .014). Chemotherapy-treated breast cancer survivors who have a particular profile of brain structure may have a higher risk for AD, especially those who are older and have lower cognitive reserve.

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

On the probability of occurrence of rogue waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. M. Bitner-Gregersen

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A number of extreme and rogue wave studies have been conducted theoretically, numerically, experimentally and based on field data in the last years, which have significantly advanced our knowledge of ocean waves. So far, however, consensus on the probability of occurrence of rogue waves has not been achieved. The present investigation is addressing this topic from the perspective of design needs. Probability of occurrence of extreme and rogue wave crests in deep water is here discussed based on higher order time simulations, experiments and hindcast data. Focus is given to occurrence of rogue waves in high sea states.

Incorporation of various uncertainties in dependent failure-probability estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Mitra, S.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes an approach that allows the incorporation of various types of uncertainties in the estimation of dependent failure (common mode failure) probability. The types of uncertainties considered are attributable to data, modeling and coupling. The method developed is applied to a class of dependent failures, i.e., multiple human failures during testing, maintenance and calibration. Estimation of these failures is critical as they have been shown to be significant contributors to core melt probability in pressurized water reactors

Increase in tumor control and normal tissue complication probabilities in advanced head-and-neck cancer for dose-escalated intensity-modulated photon and proton therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annika eJakobi

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction:Presently used radio-chemotherapy regimens result in moderate local control rates for patients with advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC. Dose escalation (DE may be an option to improve patient outcome, but may also increase the risk of toxicities in healthy tissue. The presented treatment planning study evaluated the feasibility of two DE levels for advanced HNSCC patients, planned with either intensity-modulated photon therapy (IMXT or proton therapy (IMPT.Materials and Methods:For 45 HNSCC patients, IMXT and IMPT treatment plans were created including DE via a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB in the high-risk volume, while maintaining standard fractionation with 2 Gy per fraction in the remaining target volume. Two DE levels for the SIB were compared: 2.3 Gy and 2.6 Gy. Treatment plan evaluation included assessment of tumor control probabilities (TCP and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP.Results:An increase of approximately 10% in TCP was estimated between the DE levels. A pronounced high-dose rim surrounding the SIB volume was identified in IMXT treatment. Compared to IMPT, this extra dose slightly increased the TCP values and to a larger extent the NTCP values. For both modalities, the higher DE level led only to a small increase in NTCP values (mean differences < 2% in all models, except for the risk of aspiration, which increased on average by 8% and 6% with IMXT and IMPT, respectively, but showed a considerable patient dependence. Conclusions:Both DE levels appear applicable to patients with IMXT and IMPT since all calculated NTCP values, except for one, increased only little for the higher DE level. The estimated TCP increase is of relevant magnitude. The higher DE schedule needs to be investigated carefully in the setting of a prospective clinical trial, especially regarding toxicities caused by high local doses that lack a sound dose response description, e.g., ulcers.

Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site, north of eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Ma

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Ozone pollution in eastern China has become one of the top environmental issues. Quantifying the temporal trend of surface ozone helps to assess the impacts of the anthropogenic precursor reductions and the likely effects of emission control strategies implemented. In this paper, ozone data collected at the Shangdianzi (SDZ regional atmospheric background station from 2003 to 2015 are presented and analyzed to obtain the variation in the trend of surface ozone in the most polluted region of China, north of eastern China or the North China Plain. A modified Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ filter method was performed on the maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8 concentrations of ozone to separate the contributions of different factors from the variation of surface ozone and remove the influence of meteorological fluctuations on surface ozone. Results reveal that the short-term, seasonal and long-term components of ozone account for 36.4, 57.6 and 2.2 % of the total variance, respectively. The long-term trend indicates that the MDA8 has undergone a significant increase in the period of 2003–2015, with an average rate of 1.13 ± 0.01 ppb year−1 (R2 = 0.92. It is found that meteorological factors did not significantly influence the long-term variation of ozone and the increase may be completely attributed to changes in emissions. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between the long-term O3 and NO2 trends. This study suggests that emission changes in VOCs might have played a more important role in the observed increase of surface ozone at SDZ.

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Left passage probability of Schramm-Loewner Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, M. N.

2013-06-01

SLE(κ,ρ⃗) is a variant of Schramm-Loewner Evolution (SLE) which describes the curves which are not conformal invariant, but are self-similar due to the presence of some other preferred points on the boundary. In this paper we study the left passage probability (LPP) of SLE(κ,ρ⃗) through field theoretical framework and find the differential equation governing this probability. This equation is numerically solved for the special case κ=2 and hρ=0 in which hρ is the conformal weight of the boundary changing (bcc) operator. It may be referred to loop erased random walk (LERW) and Abelian sandpile model (ASM) with a sink on its boundary. For the curve which starts from ξ0 and conditioned by a change of boundary conditions at x0, we find that this probability depends significantly on the factor x0-ξ0. We also present the perturbative general solution for large x0. As a prototype, we apply this formalism to SLE(κ,κ-6) which governs the curves that start from and end on the real axis.

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Ozone-surface reactions in five homes: surface reaction probabilities, aldehyde yields, and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H; Morrison, G

2010-06-01

Field experiments were conducted in five homes during three seasons (summer 2005, summer 2006 and winter 2007) to quantify ozone-initiated secondary aldehyde yields, surface reaction probabilities, and trends any temporal over a 1.5-year interval. Surfaces examined include living room carpets, bedroom carpets, kitchen floors, kitchen counters, and living room walls. Reaction probabilities for all surfaces for all seasons ranged from 9.4 x 10(-8) to 1.0 x 10(-4). There were no significant temporal trends in reaction probabilities for any surfaces from summer 2005 to summer 2006, nor over the entire 1.5-year period, indicating that it may take significantly longer than this period for surfaces to exhibit any 'ozone aging' or lowering of ozone-surface reactivity. However, all surfaces in three houses exhibited a significant decrease in reaction probabilities from summer 2006 to winter 2007. The total yield of aldehydes for the summer of 2005 were nearly identical to that for summer of 2006, but were significantly higher than for winter 2007. We also observed that older carpets were consistently less reactive than in newer carpets, but that countertops remained consistently reactive, probably because of occupant activities such as cooking and cleaning. Ozone reactions taking place at indoor surfaces significantly influence personal exposure to ozone and volatile reaction products. These field studies show that indoor surfaces only slowly lose their ability to react with ozone over several year time frames, and that this is probably because of a combination of large reservoirs of reactive coatings and periodic additions of reactive coatings in the form of cooking, cleaning, and skin-oil residues. When considering exposure to ozone and its reaction products and in the absence of dramatic changes in occupancy, activities or furnishings, indoor surface reactivity is expected to change very slowly.

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

The perception of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

2014-01-01

We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Introduction to probability with R

CERN Document Server

Baclawski, Kenneth

2008-01-01

FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Probability of causation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jose, D.E.

1988-01-01

Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

Flux continuity and probability conservation in complexified Bohmian mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poirier, Bill

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen increased interest in complexified Bohmian mechanical trajectory calculations for quantum systems as both a pedagogical and computational tool. In the latter context, it is essential that trajectories satisfy probability conservation to ensure they are always guided to where they are most needed. We consider probability conservation for complexified Bohmian trajectories. The analysis relies on time-reversal symmetry considerations, leading to a generalized expression for the conjugation of wave functions of complexified variables. This in turn enables meaningful discussion of complexified flux continuity, which turns out not to be satisfied in general, though a related property is found to be true. The main conclusion, though, is that even under a weak interpretation, probability is not conserved along complex Bohmian trajectories

A shift from significance test to hypothesis test through power analysis in medical research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singh Girish

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Medical research literature until recently, exhibited substantial dominance of the Fisher′s significance test approach of statistical inference concentrating more on probability of type I error over Neyman-Pearson′s hypothesis test considering both probability of type I and II error. Fisher′s approach dichotomises results into significant or not significant results with a P value. The Neyman-Pearson′s approach talks of acceptance or rejection of null hypothesis. Based on the same theory these two approaches deal with same objective and conclude in their own way. The advancement in computing techniques and availability of statistical software have resulted in increasing application of power calculations in medical research and thereby reporting the result of significance tests in the light of power of the test also. Significance test approach, when it incorporates power analysis contains the essence of hypothesis test approach. It may be safely argued that rising application of power analysis in medical research may have initiated a shift from Fisher′s significance test to Neyman-Pearson′s hypothesis test procedure.

Most probable degree distribution at fixed structural entropy

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Here we derive the most probable degree distribution emerging ... the structural entropy of power-law networks is an increasing function of the expo- .... tition function Z of the network as the sum over all degree distributions, with given energy.

Collision Probability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1998-01-01

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

Irreversibility and conditional probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuart, C.I.J.M.

1989-01-01

The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

Introduction to probability with Mathematica

CERN Document Server

Hastings, Kevin J

2009-01-01

Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Čižmešija

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

Influence of nucleon density distribution in nucleon emission probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paul, Sabyasachi; Nandy, Maitreyee; Mohanty, A.K.; Sarkar, P.K.; Gambhir, Y.K.

2014-01-01

Different decay modes are observed in heavy ion reactions at low to intermediate energies. It is interesting to study total neutron emission in these reactions which may be contributed by all/many of these decay modes. In an attempt to understand the importance of mean field and the entrance channel angular momentum, we study their influence on the emission probability of nucleons in heavy ion reactions in this work. This study owes its significance to the fact that once population of different states are determined, emission probability governs the double differential neutron yield

Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan eCort

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

Some uses of predictive probability of success in clinical drug development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauro Gasparini

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Predictive probability of success is a (subjective Bayesian evaluation of the prob- ability of a future successful event in a given state of information. In the context of pharmaceutical clinical drug development, successful events relate to the accrual of positive evidence on the therapy which is being developed, like demonstration of su- perior efficacy or ascertainment of safety. Positive evidence will usually be obtained via standard frequentist tools, according to the regulations imposed in the world of pharmaceutical development.Within a single trial, predictive probability of success can be identified with expected power, i.e. the evaluation of the success probability of the trial. Success means, for example, obtaining a significant result of a standard superiority test.Across trials, predictive probability of success can be the probability of a successful completion of an entire part of clinical development, for example a successful phase III development in the presence of phase II data.Calculations of predictive probability of success in the presence of normal data with known variance will be illustrated, both for within-trial and across-trial predictions.

Box-particle probability hypothesis density filtering

OpenAIRE

Schikora, M.; Gning, A.; Mihaylova, L.; Cremers, D.; Koch, W.

2014-01-01

This paper develops a novel approach for multitarget tracking, called box-particle probability hypothesis density filter (box-PHD filter). The approach is able to track multiple targets and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic, and data association uncertainty. The box-PHD filter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The small number of box-p...

St. John's wort significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of methotrexate in rats

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Shih-Ying [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Juang, Shin-Hun [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Tsai, Shang-Yuan; Chao, Pei-Dawn Lee [School of Pharmacy, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Hou, Yu-Chi, E-mail: hou5133@gmail.com [School of Pharmacy, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan (China)

2012-08-15

St. John's wort (SJW, Hypericum perforatum) is one of the popular nutraceuticals for treating depression. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window. This study investigated the effect of SJW on MTX pharmacokinetics in rats. Rats were orally given MTX alone and coadministered with 300 and 150 mg/kg of SJW, and 25 mg/kg of diclofenac, respectively. Blood was withdrawn at specific time points and serum MTX concentrations were assayed by a specific monoclonal fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. The results showed that 300 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} and C{sub max} of MTX by 163% and 60%, respectively, and 150 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} of MTX by 55%. In addition, diclofenac enhanced the C{sub max} of MTX by 110%. The mortality of rats treated with SJW was higher than that of controls. In conclusion, coadministration of SJW significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of MTX. The combined use of MTX with SJW would need to be with caution. -- Highlights: ► St. John's wort significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} and C{sub max} of methotrexate. ► Coadministration of St. John's wort increased the exposure and toxicity of methotrexate. ► The combined use of methotrexate with St. John's wort will need to be with caution.

Unequivocal detection of ozone recovery in the Antarctic Ozone Hole through significant increases in atmospheric layers with minimum ozone

Science.gov (United States)

de Laat, Jos; van Weele, Michiel; van der A, Ronald

2015-04-01

An important new landmark in present day ozone research is presented through MLS satellite observations of significant ozone increases during the ozone hole season that are attributed unequivocally to declining ozone depleting substances. For many decades the Antarctic ozone hole has been the prime example of both the detrimental effects of human activities on our environment as well as how to construct effective and successful environmental policies. Nowadays atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are on the decline and first signs of recovery of stratospheric ozone and ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole have been observed. The claimed detection of significant recovery, however, is still subject of debate. In this talk we will discuss first current uncertainties in the assessment of ozone recovery in the Antarctic ozone hole by using multi-variate regression methods, and, secondly present an alternative approach to identify ozone hole recovery unequivocally. Even though multi-variate regression methods help to reduce uncertainties in estimates of ozone recovery, great care has to be taken in their application due to the existence of uncertainties and degrees of freedom in the choice of independent variables. We show that taking all uncertainties into account in the regressions the formal recovery of ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole cannot be established yet, though is likely before the end of the decade (before 2020). Rather than focusing on time and area averages of total ozone columns or ozone profiles, we argue that the time evolution of the probability distribution of vertically resolved ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole contains a better fingerprint for the detection of ozone recovery in the Antarctic ozone hole. The advantages of this method over more tradition methods of trend analyses based on spatio-temporal average ozone are discussed. The 10-year record of MLS satellite measurements of ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole shows a

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Edward; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.; Reasenberg, P.A.; Dieterich, J.H.; Yoshida, A.

1998-01-01

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2-1.0 bars (0.02-0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to

A first course in probability

CERN Document Server

Ross, Sheldon

2014-01-01

A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Variation in the standard deviation of the lure rating distribution: Implications for estimates of recollection probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dopkins, Stephen; Varner, Kaitlin; Hoyer, Darin

2017-10-01

In word recognition semantic priming of test words increased the false-alarm rate and the mean of confidence ratings to lures. Such priming also increased the standard deviation of confidence ratings to lures and the slope of the z-ROC function, suggesting that the priming increased the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. The Unequal Variance Signal Detection (UVSD) model interpreted the priming as increasing the standard deviation of the lure evidence distribution. Without additional parameters the Dual Process Signal Detection (DPSD) model could only accommodate the results by fitting the data for related and unrelated primes separately, interpreting the priming, implausibly, as decreasing the probability of target recollection (DPSD). With an additional parameter, for the probability of false (lure) recollection the model could fit the data for related and unrelated primes together, interpreting the priming as increasing the probability of false recollection. These results suggest that DPSD estimates of target recollection probability will decrease with increases in the lure confidence/evidence standard deviation unless a parameter is included for false recollection. Unfortunately the size of a given lure confidence/evidence standard deviation relative to other possible lure confidence/evidence standard deviations is often unspecified by context. Hence the model often has no way of estimating false recollection probability and thereby correcting its estimates of target recollection probability.

Estimating Subjective Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

2014-01-01

either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Probability Models Based on Soil Properties for Predicting Presence-Absence of Pythium in Soybean Roots.

Science.gov (United States)

Zitnick-Anderson, Kimberly K; Norland, Jack E; Del Río Mendoza, Luis E; Fortuna, Ann-Marie; Nelson, Berlin D

2017-10-01

Associations between soil properties and Pythium groups on soybean roots were investigated in 83 commercial soybean fields in North Dakota. A data set containing 2877 isolates of Pythium which included 26 known spp. and 1 unknown spp. and 13 soil properties from each field were analyzed. A Pearson correlation analysis was performed with all soil properties to observe any significant correlation between properties. Hierarchical clustering, indicator spp., and multi-response permutation procedures were used to identify groups of Pythium. Logistic regression analysis using stepwise selection was employed to calculate probability models for presence of groups based on soil properties. Three major Pythium groups were identified and three soil properties were associated with these groups. Group 1, characterized by P. ultimum, was associated with zinc levels; as zinc increased, the probability of group 1 being present increased (α = 0.05). Pythium group 2, characterized by Pythium kashmirense and an unknown Pythium sp., was associated with cation exchange capacity (CEC) (α < 0.05); as CEC increased, these spp. increased. Group 3, characterized by Pythium heterothallicum and Pythium irregulare, were associated with CEC and calcium carbonate exchange (CCE); as CCE increased and CEC decreased, these spp. increased (α = 0.05). The regression models may have value in predicting pathogenic Pythium spp. in soybean fields in North Dakota and adjacent states.

Pretest probability of a normal echocardiography: validation of a simple and practical algorithm for routine use.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammoudi, Nadjib; Duprey, Matthieu; Régnier, Philippe; Achkar, Marc; Boubrit, Lila; Preud'homme, Gisèle; Healy-Brucker, Aude; Vignalou, Jean-Baptiste; Pousset, Françoise; Komajda, Michel; Isnard, Richard

2014-02-01

Management of increased referrals for transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) examinations is a challenge. Patients with normal TTE examinations take less time to explore than those with heart abnormalities. A reliable method for assessing pretest probability of a normal TTE may optimize management of requests. To establish and validate, based on requests for examinations, a simple algorithm for defining pretest probability of a normal TTE. In a retrospective phase, factors associated with normality were investigated and an algorithm was designed. In a prospective phase, patients were classified in accordance with the algorithm as being at high or low probability of having a normal TTE. In the retrospective phase, 42% of 618 examinations were normal. In multivariable analysis, age and absence of cardiac history were associated to normality. Low pretest probability of normal TTE was defined by known cardiac history or, in case of doubt about cardiac history, by age>70 years. In the prospective phase, the prevalences of normality were 72% and 25% in high (n=167) and low (n=241) pretest probability of normality groups, respectively. The mean duration of normal examinations was significantly shorter than abnormal examinations (13.8 ± 9.2 min vs 17.6 ± 11.1 min; P=0.0003). A simple algorithm can classify patients referred for TTE as being at high or low pretest probability of having a normal examination. This algorithm might help to optimize management of requests in routine practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Analysis of Drop Call Probability in Well Established Cellular ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Technology in Africa has increased over the past decade. The increase in modern cellular networks requires stringent quality of service (QoS). Drop call probability is one of the most important indices of QoS evaluation in a large scale well-established cellular network. In this work we started from an accurate statistical ...

The sticking probability for H-2 in presence of CO on some transition metals at a hydrogen pressure of 1 bar

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansson, Martin; Lytken, Ole; Chorkendorff, Ib

2008-01-01

The sticking probability for H-2 on Ni, Co, Cu, Rh, Ru, Pd, it and Pt metal films supported on graphite has been investigated in a gas mixture consisting of 10 ppm carbon monoxide in hydrogen at a total pressure of 1 bar in the temperature range 40-200 degrees C. Carbon monoxide inhibits the stic......The sticking probability for H-2 on Ni, Co, Cu, Rh, Ru, Pd, it and Pt metal films supported on graphite has been investigated in a gas mixture consisting of 10 ppm carbon monoxide in hydrogen at a total pressure of 1 bar in the temperature range 40-200 degrees C. Carbon monoxide inhibits...... the sticking probability significantly for all the metals, even at 200 degrees C. In the presence of 10 ppm CO, the sticking probability increases in the order It, Pt, Ni, Co, Pd, Rh, Ru, whereas for Cu, it is below the detection limit of the measurement, even in pure H2. The sticking probability for H2...

The influence of initial beliefs on judgments of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Erica C; Lagnado, David A

2012-01-01

This study aims to investigate whether experimentally induced prior beliefs affect processing of evidence including the updating of beliefs under uncertainty about the unknown probabilities of outcomes and the structural, outcome-generating nature of the environment. Participants played a gambling task in the form of computer-simulated slot machines and were given information about the slot machines' possible outcomes without their associated probabilities. One group was induced with a prior belief about the outcome space that matched the space of actual outcomes to be sampled; the other group was induced with a skewed prior belief that included the actual outcomes and also fictional higher outcomes. In reality, however, all participants sampled evidence from the same underlying outcome distribution, regardless of priors given. Before and during sampling, participants expressed their beliefs about the outcome distribution (values and probabilities). Evaluation of those subjective probability distributions suggests that all participants' judgments converged toward the observed outcome distribution. However, despite observing no supporting evidence for fictional outcomes, a significant proportion of participants in the skewed priors condition expected them in the future. A probe of the participants' understanding of the underlying outcome-generating processes indicated that participants' judgments were based on the information given in the induced priors and consequently, a significant proportion of participants in the skewed condition believed the slot machines were not games of chance while participants in the control condition believed the machines generated outcomes at random. Beyond Bayesian or heuristic belief updating, priors not only contribute to belief revision but also affect one's deeper understanding of the environment.

Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Druker

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

Science.gov (United States)

Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

2010-06-01

False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

Rejecting probability summation for radial frequency patterns, not so Quick!

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Alex S; Schmidtmann, Gunnar; Kingdom, Frederick A A; Hess, Robert F

2016-05-01

Radial frequency (RF) patterns are used to assess how the visual system processes shape. They are thought to be detected globally. This is supported by studies that have found summation for RF patterns to be greater than what is possible if the parts were being independently detected and performance only then improved with an increasing number of cycles by probability summation between them. However, the model of probability summation employed in these previous studies was based on High Threshold Theory (HTT), rather than Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We conducted rating scale experiments to investigate the receiver operating characteristics. We find these are of the curved form predicted by SDT, rather than the straight lines predicted by HTT. This means that to test probability summation we must use a model based on SDT. We conducted a set of summation experiments finding that thresholds decrease as the number of modulated cycles increases at approximately the same rate as previously found. As this could be consistent with either additive or probability summation, we performed maximum-likelihood fitting of a set of summation models (Matlab code provided in our Supplementary material) and assessed the fits using cross validation. We find we are not able to distinguish whether the responses to the parts of an RF pattern are combined by additive or probability summation, because the predictions are too similar. We present similar results for summation between separate RF patterns, suggesting that the summation process there may be the same as that within a single RF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fetal rat metabonome alteration by prenatal caffeine ingestion probably due to the increased circulatory glucocorticoid level and altered peripheral glucose and lipid metabolic pathways

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Yansong [Department of Pharmacology, Basic Medical School of Wuhan University, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Xu, Dan [Department of Pharmacology, Basic Medical School of Wuhan University, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Research Center of Food and Drug Evaluation, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Feng, Jianghua, E-mail: jianghua.feng@xmu.edu.cn [Wuhan Institute of Physics and Mathematics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Department of Electronic Science, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Plasma and Magnetic Resonance, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005 (China); Kou, Hao; Liang, Gai [Department of Pharmacology, Basic Medical School of Wuhan University, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Yu, Hong; He, Xiaohua; Zhang, Baifang; Chen, Liaobin [Research Center of Food and Drug Evaluation, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Magdalou, Jacques [UMR 7561 CNRS-Nancy Université, Faculté de Médicine, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy (France); Wang, Hui, E-mail: wanghui19@whu.edu.cn [Department of Pharmacology, Basic Medical School of Wuhan University, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China); Research Center of Food and Drug Evaluation, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071 (China)

2012-07-15

The aims of this study were to clarify the metabonome alteration in fetal rats after prenatal caffeine ingestion and to explore the underlying mechanism pertaining to the increased fetal circulatory glucocorticoid (GC). Pregnant Wistar rats were daily intragastrically administered with different doses of caffeine (0, 20, 60 and 180 mg/kg) from gestational days (GD) 11 to 20. Metabonome of fetal plasma and amniotic fluid on GD20 were analyzed by {sup 1}H nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabonomics. Gene and protein expressions involved in the GC metabolism, glucose and lipid metabolic pathways in fetal liver and gastrocnemius were measured by real-time RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. Fetal plasma metabonome were significantly altered by caffeine, which presents as the elevated α- and β‐glucose, reduced multiple lipid contents, varied apolipoprotein contents and increased levels of a number of amino acids. The metabonome of amniotic fluids showed a similar change as that in fetal plasma. Furthermore, the expressions of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 2 (11β-HSD-2) were decreased, while the level of blood GC and the expressions of 11β-HSD-1 and glucocorticoid receptor (GR) were increased in fetal liver and gastrocnemius. Meanwhile, the expressions of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), IGF-1 receptor and insulin receptor were decreased, while the expressions of adiponectin receptor 2, leptin receptors and AMP-activated protein kinase α2 were increased after caffeine treatment. Prenatal caffeine ingestion characteristically change the fetal metabonome, which is probably attributed to the alterations of glucose and lipid metabolic pathways induced by increased circulatory GC, activated GC metabolism and enhanced GR expression in peripheral metabolic tissues. -- Highlights: ► Prenatal caffeine ingestion altered the metabonome of IUGR fetal rats. ► Caffeine altered the glucose and lipid metabolic pathways of IUGR fetal rats. ► Prenatal caffeine

A probability space for quantum models

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Aspects of igneous activity significant to a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krier, D.J.; Perry, F.V.

2004-01-01

Location, timing, volume, and eruptive style of post-Miocene volcanoes have defined the volcanic hazard significant to a proposed high-level radioactive waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a low-probability, high-consequence event. Examination of eruptive centers in the region that may be analogueues to possible future volcanic activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining and evaluating the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption above a repository. The probability of a future event intersecting a repository at Yucca Mountain has a mean value of 1.7 x 10 -8 per year. This probability comes from the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) completed in 1996 and updated to reflect change in repository layout. Since that time, magnetic anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified fiom magnetic surveys; however these potential buried centers only slightly increase the probability of an event intersecting the repository. The proposed repository will be located in its central portion of Yucca Mountain at approximately 300m depth. The process for assessing performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain has identified two scenarios for igneous activity that, although having a very low probability of occurrence, could have a significant consequence should an igneous event occur. Either a dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, or a volcanic eruption through the repository could result in release of radioactive material to the accessible environment. Ongoing investigations are assessing the mechanisms and significance of the consequence scenarios. Lathrop Wells Cone (∼80,000 yrs), a key analogue for estimating potential future volcanic activity, is the youngest surface expression of apparent waning basaltic volcanism in the region. Cone internal structure, lavas, and ash-fall tephra have been examined to estimate eruptive volume, eruption

Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Varacca, Daniele

Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

A Scheduling Algorithm for Minimizing the Packet Error Probability in Clusterized TDMA Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arash T. Toyserkani

2009-01-01

Full Text Available We consider clustered wireless networks, where transceivers in a cluster use a time-slotted mechanism (TDMA to access a wireless channel that is shared among several clusters. An approximate expression for the packet-loss probability is derived for networks with one or more mutually interfering clusters in Rayleigh fading environments, and the approximation is shown to be good for relevant scenarios. We then present a scheduling algorithm, based on Lagrangian duality, that exploits the derived packet-loss model in an attempt to minimize the average packet-loss probability in the network. Computer simulations of the proposed scheduling algorithm show that a significant increase in network throughput can be achieved compared to uncoordinated scheduling. Empirical trials also indicate that the proposed optimization algorithm almost always converges to an optimal schedule with a reasonable number of iterations. Thus, the proposed algorithm can also be used for bench-marking suboptimal scheduling algorithms.

Ignition Probability

Data.gov (United States)

Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1988-01-01

Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time-Series and Intervention Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei

2017-07-01

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Spatial probability of soil water repellency in an abandoned agricultural field in Lithuania

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Paulo; Misiūnė, Ieva

2015-04-01

Water repellency is a natural soil property with implications on infiltration, erosion and plant growth. It depends on soil texture, type and amount of organic matter, fungi, microorganisms, and vegetation cover (Doerr et al., 2000). Human activities as agriculture can have implications on soil water repellency (SWR) due tillage and addition of organic compounds and fertilizers (Blanco-Canqui and Lal, 2009; Gonzalez-Penaloza et al., 2012). It is also assumed that SWR has a high small-scale variability (Doerr et al., 2000). The aim of this work is to study the spatial probability of SWR in an abandoned field testing several geostatistical methods, Organic Kriging (OK), Simple Kriging (SK), Indicator Kriging (IK), Probability Kriging (PK) and Disjunctive Kriging (DK). The study area it is located near Vilnius urban area at (54 49' N, 25 22', 104 masl) in Lithuania (Pereira and Oliva, 2013). It was designed a experimental plot with 21 m2 (07x03 m). Inside this area it was measured SWR was measured every 50 cm using the water drop penetration time (WDPT) (Wessel, 1998). A total of 105 points were measured. The probability of SWR was classified in 0 (No probability) to 1 (High probability). The methods accuracy was assessed with the cross validation method. The best interpolation method was the one with the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the most accurate probability method was SK (RMSE=0.436), followed by DK (RMSE=0.437), IK (RMSE=0.448), PK (RMSE=0.452) and OK (RMSE=0.537). Significant differences were identified among probability tests (Kruskal-Wallis test =199.7597 ptested technique. Simple Kriging, DK, IK and PK methods identified the high SWR probabilities in the northeast and central part of the plot, while OK observed mainly in the south-western part of the plot. In conclusion, before predict the spatial probability of SWR it is important to test several methods in order to identify the most accurate. Acknowledgments COST action ES

The concept of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

1989-01-01

The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Time-dependent earthquake probability calculations for southern Kanto after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Nanjo, K. Z.; Sakai, S.; Kato, A.; Tsuruoka, H.; Hirata, N.

2013-05-01

Seismicity in southern Kanto activated with the 2011 March 11 Tohoku earthquake of magnitude M9.0, but does this cause a significant difference in the probability of more earthquakes at the present or in the To? future answer this question, we examine the effect of a change in the seismicity rate on the probability of earthquakes. Our data set is from the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalogue, downloaded on 2012 May 30. Our approach is based on time-dependent earthquake probabilistic calculations, often used for aftershock hazard assessment, and are based on two statistical laws: the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude law and the Omori-Utsu (OU) aftershock-decay law. We first confirm that the seismicity following a quake of M4 or larger is well modelled by the GR law with b ˜ 1. Then, there is good agreement with the OU law with p ˜ 0.5, which indicates that the slow decay was notably significant. Based on these results, we then calculate the most probable estimates of future M6-7-class events for various periods, all with a starting date of 2012 May 30. The estimates are higher than pre-quake levels if we consider a period of 3-yr duration or shorter. However, for statistics-based forecasting such as this, errors that arise from parameter estimation must be considered. Taking into account the contribution of these errors to the probability calculations, we conclude that any increase in the probability of earthquakes is insignificant. Although we try to avoid overstating the change in probability, our observations combined with results from previous studies support the likelihood that afterslip (fault creep) in southern Kanto will slowly relax a stress step caused by the Tohoku earthquake. This afterslip in turn reminds us of the potential for stress redistribution to the surrounding regions. We note the importance of varying hazards not only in time but also in space to improve the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for southern Kanto.

Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cao, T.; Aki, K.

1983-03-10

We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.

The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

2001-01-01

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

Poisson Processes in Free Probability

OpenAIRE

An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

2015-01-01

We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

Solving probability reasoning based on DNA strand displacement and probability modules.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Xiaobiao; Wang, Xiaojun; Zhou, Changjun

2017-12-01

In computation biology, DNA strand displacement technology is used to simulate the computation process and has shown strong computing ability. Most researchers use it to solve logic problems, but it is only rarely used in probabilistic reasoning. To process probabilistic reasoning, a conditional probability derivation model and total probability model based on DNA strand displacement were established in this paper. The models were assessed through the game "read your mind." It has been shown to enable the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garza, J.; Millwater, H.

2016-01-01

Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.

Truth, possibility and probability new logical foundations of probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Chuaqui, R

1991-01-01

Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.

Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

2015-04-01

This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing

Science.gov (United States)

Jopek, Tadeusz Jan; Bronikowska, Małgorzata

2017-09-01

Probability of coincidental clustering among orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups of 2,3,4,… members. Probability of coincidental clustering is assessed by the numerical simulation, therefore, it depends also on the method used for the synthetic orbits generation. We have tested the impact of some of these factors. For a given size of the orbital sample we have assessed probability of random pairing among several orbital populations of different sizes. We have found how these probabilities vary with the size of the orbital samples. Finally, keeping fixed size of the orbital sample we have shown that the probability of random pairing can be significantly different for the orbital samples obtained by different observation techniques. Also for the user convenience we have obtained several formulae which, for given size of the orbital sample can be used to calculate the similarity threshold corresponding to the small value of the probability of coincidental similarity among two orbits.

Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

Science.gov (United States)

Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

2018-04-01

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint

Science.gov (United States)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2017-09-01

We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius rex. For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius rex. It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius rex corresponds to the screening length.

Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint.

Science.gov (United States)

Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

2017-09-07

We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius r ex . For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius r ex . It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius r ex corresponds to the screening length.

Probability and stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Rotar, Vladimir I

2012-01-01

Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

Transitional Probabilities Are Prioritized over Stimulus/Pattern Probabilities in Auditory Deviance Detection: Memory Basis for Predictive Sound Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mittag, Maria; Takegata, Rika; Winkler, István

2016-09-14

Representations encoding the probabilities of auditory events do not directly support predictive processing. In contrast, information about the probability with which a given sound follows another (transitional probability) allows predictions of upcoming sounds. We tested whether behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection (the latter indexed by the mismatch negativity event-related potential) relies on probabilities of sound patterns or on transitional probabilities. We presented healthy adult volunteers with three types of rare tone-triplets among frequent standard triplets of high-low-high (H-L-H) or L-H-L pitch structure: proximity deviant (H-H-H/L-L-L), reversal deviant (L-H-L/H-L-H), and first-tone deviant (L-L-H/H-H-L). If deviance detection was based on pattern probability, reversal and first-tone deviants should be detected with similar latency because both differ from the standard at the first pattern position. If deviance detection was based on transitional probabilities, then reversal deviants should be the most difficult to detect because, unlike the other two deviants, they contain no low-probability pitch transitions. The data clearly showed that both behavioral and cortical auditory deviance detection uses transitional probabilities. Thus, the memory traces underlying cortical deviance detection may provide a link between stimulus probability-based change/novelty detectors operating at lower levels of the auditory system and higher auditory cognitive functions that involve predictive processing. Our research presents the first definite evidence for the auditory system prioritizing transitional probabilities over probabilities of individual sensory events. Forming representations for transitional probabilities paves the way for predictions of upcoming sounds. Several recent theories suggest that predictive processing provides the general basis of human perception, including important auditory functions, such as auditory scene analysis. Our

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Probability tales

CERN Document Server

Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

2011-01-01

This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

The effect of incremental changes in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children

Science.gov (United States)

Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

2013-01-01

Purpose Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density have predominately been defined using gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). The current studies examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method The full range of probability or density was examined by sampling five nonwords from each of four quartiles. Three- and 5-year-old children received training on nonword-nonobject pairs. Learning was measured in a picture-naming task immediately following training and 1-week after training. Results were analyzed using multi-level modeling. Results A linear spline model best captured nonlinearities in phonotactic probability. Specifically word learning improved as probability increased in the lowest quartile, worsened as probability increased in the midlow quartile, and then remained stable and poor in the two highest quartiles. An ordinary linear model sufficiently described neighborhood density. Here, word learning improved as density increased across all quartiles. Conclusion Given these different patterns, phonotactic probability and neighborhood density appear to influence different word learning processes. Specifically, phonotactic probability may affect recognition that a sound sequence is an acceptable word in the language and is a novel word for the child, whereas neighborhood density may influence creation of a new representation in long-term memory. PMID:23882005

Application of damping mechanism model and stacking fault probability in Fe-Mn alloy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, S.K.; Wen, Y.H.; Li, N.; Teng, J.; Ding, S.; Xu, Y.G.

2008-01-01

In this paper, the damping mechanism model of Fe-Mn alloy was analyzed using dislocation theory. Moreover, as an important parameter in Fe-Mn based alloy, the effect of stacking fault probability on the damping capacity of Fe-19.35Mn alloy after deep-cooling or tensile deformation was also studied. The damping capacity was measured using reversal torsion pendulum. The stacking fault probability of γ-austenite and ε-martensite was determined by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD) profile analysis. The microstructure was observed using scanning electronic microscope (SEM). The results indicated that with the strain amplitude increasing above a critical value, the damping capacity of Fe-19.35Mn alloy increased rapidly which could be explained using the breakaway model of Shockley partial dislocations. Deep-cooling and suitable tensile deformation could improve the damping capacity owning to the increasing of stacking fault probability of Fe-19.35Mn alloy

The effects of a Danish legal reform on divorce probabilities and pension savings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amilon, Anna

2012-01-01

This paper investigates how a recent Danish legal reform that changed how pension savings are shared upon divorce influenced divorce probabilities and pension savings. A simple theoretical model predicts that the reform should cause couples to either get divorced or sign postnuptial agreements...... for the couples in the sample was less than 1 %, the relative increase in divorce probabilities caused by the reform was between 12 and 40 %. The effects are largest when the wife is the one gaining from getting divorced. Moreover, the reform influenced wives', but not husbands', pension savings and caused....... Using a large panel of Danish register data, I find that the probability of getting divorced increased by between 0.1 and 0.3 % for couples that were affected by the reform, compared to couples that were not. Although these increases might appear small, given that the average divorce rates...

A Tale of Two Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

2013-01-01

Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

Impact of controlling the sum of error probability in the sequential probability ratio test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijoy Kumarr Pradhan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available A generalized modified method is proposed to control the sum of error probabilities in sequential probability ratio test to minimize the weighted average of the two average sample numbers under a simple null hypothesis and a simple alternative hypothesis with the restriction that the sum of error probabilities is a pre-assigned constant to find the optimal sample size and finally a comparison is done with the optimal sample size found from fixed sample size procedure. The results are applied to the cases when the random variate follows a normal law as well as Bernoullian law.

The probability and severity of decompression sickness

Science.gov (United States)

Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

2017-01-01

Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

Simplified Freeman-Tukey test statistics for testing probabilities in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents the simplified version of the Freeman-Tukey test statistic for testing hypothesis about multinomial probabilities in one, two and multidimensional contingency tables that does not require calculating the expected cell frequencies before test of significance. The simplified method established new criteria of ...

Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frič Roman

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

2011-01-01

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rabiul Islam

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man–machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Evolvement simulation of the probability of neutron-initiating persistent fission chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhe; Hong Zhenying

2014-01-01

Background: Probability of neutron-initiating persistent fission chain, which has to be calculated in analysis of critical safety, start-up of reactor, burst waiting time on pulse reactor, bursting time on pulse reactor, etc., is an inherent parameter in a multiplying assembly. Purpose: We aim to derive time-dependent integro-differential equation for such probability in relative velocity space according to the probability conservation, and develop the deterministic code Dynamic Segment Number Probability (DSNP) based on the multi-group S N method. Methods: The reliable convergence of dynamic calculation was analyzed and numerical simulation of the evolvement process of dynamic probability for varying concentration was performed under different initial conditions. Results: On Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Bare Spheres, when the time is long enough, the results of dynamic calculation approach to those of static calculation. The most difference of such results between DSNP and Partisn code is less than 2%. On Baker model, over the range of about 1 μs after the first criticality, the most difference between the dynamic and static calculation is about 300%. As for a super critical system, the finite fission chains decrease and the persistent fission chains increase as the reactivity aggrandizes, the dynamic evolvement curve of initiation probability is close to the static curve within the difference of 5% when the K eff is more than 1.2. The cumulative probability curve also indicates that the difference of integral results between the dynamic calculation and the static calculation decreases from 35% to 5% as the K eff increases. This demonstrated that the ability of initiating a self-sustaining fission chain reaction approaches stabilization, while the former difference (35%) showed the important difference of the dynamic results near the first criticality with the static ones. The DSNP code agrees well with Partisn code. Conclusions: There are large numbers of

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Closed Form Aliasing Probability For Q-ary Symmetric Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geetani Edirisooriya

1996-01-01

Full Text Available In Built-In Self-Test (BIST techniques, test data reduction can be achieved using Linear Feedback Shift Registers (LFSRs. A faulty circuit may escape detection due to loss of information inherent to data compaction schemes. This is referred to as aliasing. The probability of aliasing in Multiple-Input Shift-Registers (MISRs has been studied under various bit error models. By modeling the signature analyzer as a Markov process we show that the closed form expression derived for aliasing probability previously, for MISRs with primitive polynomials under q-ary symmetric error model holds for all MISRs irrespective of their feedback polynomials and for group cellular automata signature analyzers as well. If the erroneous behaviour of a circuit can be modelled with q-ary symmetric errors, then the test circuit complexity and propagation delay associated with the signature analyzer can be minimized by using a set of m single bit LFSRs without increasing the probability of aliasing.

Free probability and random matrices

CERN Document Server

Mingo, James A

2017-01-01

This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

Application of escape probability to line transfer in laser-produced plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.T.; London, R.A.; Zimmerman, G.B.; Haglestein, P.L.

1989-01-01

In this paper the authors apply the escape probability method to treat transfer of optically thick lines in laser-produced plasmas in plan-parallel geometry. They investigate the effect of self-absorption on the ionization balance and ion level populations. In addition, they calculate such effect on the laser gains in an exploding foil target heated by an optical laser. Due to the large ion streaming motion in laser-produced plasmas, absorption of an emitted photon occurs only over the length in which the Doppler shift is equal to the line width. They find that the escape probability calculated with the Doppler shift is larger compared to the escape probability for a static plasma. Therefore, the ion streaming motion contributes significantly to the line transfer process in laser-produced plasmas. As examples, they have applied escape probability to calculate transfer of optically thick lines in both ablating slab and exploding foil targets under irradiation of a high-power optical laser

Probability with applications and R

CERN Document Server

Dobrow, Robert P

2013-01-01

An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

A philosophical essay on probabilities

CERN Document Server

Laplace, Marquis de

1996-01-01

A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

[Formula: see text]Determination of the smoking gun of intent: significance testing of forced choice results in social security claimants.

Science.gov (United States)

Binder, Laurence M; Chafetz, Michael D

2018-01-01

Significantly below-chance findings on forced choice tests have been described as revealing "the smoking gun of intent" that proved malingering. The issues of probability levels, one-tailed vs. two-tailed tests, and the combining of PVT scores on significantly below-chance findings were addressed in a previous study, with a recommendation of a probability level of .20 to test the significance of below-chance results. The purpose of the present study was to determine the rate of below-chance findings in a Social Security Disability claimant sample using the previous recommendations. We compared the frequency of below-chance results on forced choice performance validity tests (PVTs) at two levels of significance, .05 and .20, and when using significance testing on individual subtests of the PVTs compared with total scores in claimants for Social Security Disability in order to determine the rate of the expected increase. The frequency of significant results increased with the higher level of significance for each subtest of the PVT and when combining individual test sections to increase the number of test items, with up to 20% of claimants showing significantly below-chance results at the higher p-value. These findings are discussed in light of Social Security Administration policy, showing an impact on policy issues concerning child abuse and neglect, and the importance of using these techniques in evaluations for Social Security Disability.

BAYES-HEP: Bayesian belief networks for estimation of human error probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karthick, M.; Senthil Kumar, C.; Paul, Robert T.

2017-01-01

Human errors contribute a significant portion of risk in safety critical applications and methods for estimation of human error probability have been a topic of research for over a decade. The scarce data available on human errors and large uncertainty involved in the prediction of human error probabilities make the task difficult. This paper presents a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for human error probability estimation in safety critical functions of a nuclear power plant. The developed model using BBN would help to estimate HEP with limited human intervention. A step-by-step illustration of the application of the method and subsequent evaluation is provided with a relevant case study and the model is expected to provide useful insights into risk assessment studies

Graft rejection episodes after Descemet stripping with endothelial keratoplasty: part two: the statistical analysis of probability and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Price, M O; Jordan, C S; Moore, G; Price, F W

2009-03-01

To investigate risk factors and probability of initial immunological graft rejection episodes after Descemet stripping with endothelial keratoplasty (DSEK). Outcomes of 598 DSEK cases from a single tertiary referral centre were reviewed. Risk factors and probability of rejection were assessed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards modelling. Rejection episodes occurred in 54 eyes of 48 patients. Estimated probability of a rejection episode was 7.6% by 1 year and 12% by 2 years after grafting. Relative risk of rejection was five times higher for African-American patients compared with Caucasians (p = 0.0002). Eyes with pre-existing glaucoma (9%) or steroid-responsive ocular hypertension (27%) had twice the relative risk of rejection (p = 0.045) compared with eyes that did not have those problems. Patient age, sex and corneal diagnosis did not significantly influence rejection risk. Risk of rejection was not increased when fellow eyes were grafted within 1 year of the first eye (p = 0.62). Pre-existing glaucoma or steroid-responsive ocular hypertension and race were the two factors that independently influenced relative risk of rejection after DSEK. Rejection risk was not increased if the fellow eye was grafted within the prior year with DSEK.

Re‐estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in Cascadia

Science.gov (United States)

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; McCausland, Wendy

2013-01-01

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times, a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event. This previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold. We refine the estimate, assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory‐observed earthquake initiation. Laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre‐existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress. Instead, slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes. The characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress. Using this model, the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in Cascadia is negligible (stresses of 10 MPa or more and only increases by 1.5 times for an effective normal stress of 1 MPa. We present arguments that the hypocentral effective normal stress exceeds 1 MPa. In addition, the probability enhancement due to rapid slip extends into the interevent period. With this delayed failure model for effective normal stresses greater than or equal to 50 kPa, it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur between the periods of rapid deep slip than during them. Our conclusion is that great earthquake occurrence is not significantly enhanced by episodic deep slip events.

First-passage Probability Estimation of an Earthquake Response of Seismically Isolated Containment Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, Dae-Gi; Park, Kwan-Soon; Koh, Hyun-Moo

2008-01-01

The awareness of a seismic hazard and risk is being increased rapidly according to the frequent occurrences of the huge earthquakes such as the 2008 Sichuan earthquake which caused about 70,000 confirmed casualties and a 20 billion U.S. dollars economic loss. Since an earthquake load contains various uncertainties naturally, the safety of a structural system under an earthquake excitation has been assessed by probabilistic approaches. In many structural applications for a probabilistic safety assessment, it is often regarded that the failure of a system will occur when the response of the structure firstly crosses the limit barrier within a specified interval of time. The determination of such a failure probability is usually called the 'first-passage problem' and has been extensively studied during the last few decades. However, especially for the structures which show a significant nonlinear dynamic behavior, an effective and accurate method for the estimation of such a failure probability is not fully established yet. In this study, we presented a new approach to evaluate the first-passage probability of an earthquake response of seismically isolated structures. The proposed method is applied to the seismic isolation system for the containment buildings of a nuclear power plant. From the numerical example, we verified that the proposed method shows accurate results with more efficient computational efforts compared to the conventional approaches

Bayes factor and posterior probability: Complementary statistical evidence to p-value.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ruitao; Yin, Guosheng

2015-09-01

As a convention, a p-value is often computed in hypothesis testing and compared with the nominal level of 0.05 to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. Although the smaller the p-value, the more significant the statistical test, it is difficult to perceive the p-value in a probability scale and quantify it as the strength of the data against the null hypothesis. In contrast, the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis has an explicit interpretation of how strong the data support the null. We make a comparison of the p-value and the posterior probability by considering a recent clinical trial. The results show that even when we reject the null hypothesis, there is still a substantial probability (around 20%) that the null is true. Not only should we examine whether the data would have rarely occurred under the null hypothesis, but we also need to know whether the data would be rare under the alternative. As a result, the p-value only provides one side of the information, for which the Bayes factor and posterior probability may offer complementary evidence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Narens, Louis

2014-01-01

Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Web-based experiments controlled by JavaScript: an example from probability learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnbaum, Michael H; Wakcher, Sandra V

2002-05-01

JavaScript programs can be used to control Web experiments. This technique is illustrated by an experiment that tested the effects of advice on performance in the classic probability-learning paradigm. Previous research reported that people tested via the Web or in the lab tended to match the probabilities of their responses to the probabilities that those responses would be reinforced. The optimal strategy, however, is to consistently choose the more frequent event; probability matching produces suboptimal performance. We investigated manipulations we reasoned should improve performance. A horse race scenario in which participants predicted the winner in each of a series of races between two horses was compared with an abstract scenario used previously. Ten groups of learners received different amounts of advice, including all combinations of (1) explicit instructions concerning the optimal strategy, (2) explicit instructions concerning a monetary sum to maximize, and (3) accurate information concerning the probabilities of events. The results showed minimal effects of horse race versus abstract scenario. Both advice concerning the optimal strategy and probability information contributed significantly to performance in the task. This paper includes a brief tutorial on JavaScript, explaining with simple examples how to assemble a browser-based experiment.

Loss-of-load probabilities for stand-alone photovoltaic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, S.A.; Beckman, W.A.

1989-01-01

A general method is presented for estimating the loss-of-load probability of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. The method was developed by correlating simulation results. The simulations were driven with synthetic radiation sequences having the same statistical significance as available historical data. The methods assumes a constant nighttime load and accounts for the distribution and persistence in daily solar radiation data. It is shown that the 10 year average performance of systems having loss-of-load probabilities less than about 0.01 can vary greatly from one ten year period to the next and thereby cannot be considered realistic performance estimates of a system during its lifetime. (author). 26 refs, 15 figs, 4 tabs

Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Pugachev, V S

1984-01-01

Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

CERN Document Server

Helms, Lester L

2010-01-01

This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

Probability in quantum mechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. G. Gilson

1982-01-01

Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.

1988-12-01

Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs

Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-02-18

Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

Introducing extra NADPH consumption ability significantly increases the photosynthetic efficiency and biomass production of cyanobacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jie; Zhang, Fuliang; Meng, Hengkai; Zhang, Yanping; Li, Yin

2016-11-01

Increasing photosynthetic efficiency is crucial to increasing biomass production to meet the growing demands for food and energy. Previous theoretical arithmetic analysis suggests that the light reactions and dark reactions are imperfectly coupled due to shortage of ATP supply, or accumulation of NADPH. Here we hypothesized that solely increasing NADPH consumption might improve the coupling of light reactions and dark reactions, thereby increasing the photosynthetic efficiency and biomass production. To test this hypothesis, an NADPH consumption pathway was constructed in cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. The resulting extra NADPH-consuming mutant grew much faster and achieved a higher biomass concentration. Analyses of photosynthesis characteristics showed the activities of photosystem II and photosystem I and the light saturation point of the NADPH-consuming mutant all significantly increased. Thus, we demonstrated that introducing extra NADPH consumption ability is a promising strategy to increase photosynthetic efficiency and to enable utilization of high-intensity lights. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

Science.gov (United States)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

Talking probabilities: communicating probabilistic information with words and numbers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Renooij, S.; Witteman, C.L.M.

1999-01-01

The number of knowledge-based systems that build on Bayesian belief networks is increasing. The construction of such a network however requires a large number of probabilities in numerical form. This is often considered a major obstacle, one of the reasons being that experts are reluctant to

Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

2012-01-01

With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

2017-07-01

Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, pprobability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Expected utility with lower probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

1994-01-01

An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

2013-01-01

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

Predicting significant torso trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

2005-07-01

Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hon, Nicholas

2017-06-14

Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

2011-10-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-01-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

Science.gov (United States)

Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

2011-10-01

Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

Hydrologic effects of large southwestern USA wildfires significantly increase regional water supply: fact or fiction?

Science.gov (United States)

Wine, M. L.; Cadol, D.

2016-08-01

In recent years climate change and historic fire suppression have increased the frequency of large wildfires in the southwestern USA, motivating study of the hydrological consequences of these wildfires at point and watershed scales, typically over short periods of time. These studies have revealed that reduced soil infiltration capacity and reduced transpiration due to tree canopy combustion increase streamflow at the watershed scale. However, the degree to which these local increases in runoff propagate to larger scales—relevant to urban and agricultural water supply—remains largely unknown, particularly in semi-arid mountainous watersheds co-dominated by winter snowmelt and the North American monsoon. To address this question, we selected three New Mexico watersheds—the Jemez (1223 km2), Mogollon (191 km2), and Gila (4807 km2)—that together have been affected by over 100 wildfires since 1982. We then applied climate-driven linear models to test for effects of fire on streamflow metrics after controlling for climatic variability. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and snowpack variability, significantly more streamflow discharged from the Gila watershed for three to five years following wildfires, consistent with increased regional water yield due to enhanced infiltration-excess overland flow and groundwater recharge at the large watershed scale. In contrast, we observed no such increase in discharge from the Jemez watershed following wildfires. Fire regimes represent a key difference between the contrasting responses of the Jemez and Gila watersheds with the latter experiencing more frequent wildfires, many caused by lightning strikes. While hydrologic dynamics at the scale of large watersheds were previously thought to be climatically dominated, these results suggest that if one fifth or more of a large watershed has been burned in the previous three to five years, significant increases in water yield can be expected.

Predicting dihedral angle probability distributions for protein coil residues from primary sequence using neural networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helles, Glennie; Fonseca, Rasmus

2009-01-01

residue in the input-window. The trained neural network shows a significant improvement (4-68%) in predicting the most probable bin (covering a 30°×30° area of the dihedral angle space) for all amino acids in the data set compared to first order statistics. An accuracy comparable to that of secondary...... seem to have a significant influence on the dihedral angles adopted by the individual amino acids in coil segments. In this work we attempt to predict a probability distribution of these dihedral angles based on the flanking residues. While attempts to predict dihedral angles of coil segments have been...... done previously, none have, to our knowledge, presented comparable results for the probability distribution of dihedral angles. Results: In this paper we develop an artificial neural network that uses an input-window of amino acids to predict a dihedral angle probability distribution for the middle...

Determination of bounds on failure probability in the presence of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In particular, fuzzy set theory provides a more rational framework for ..... indicating that the random variations inT andO2 do not affect failure probability significantly. ... The upper-bound for PF shown in figure 6 can be used in decision-making.

High probability of disease in angina pectoris patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høilund-Carlsen, Poul F.; Johansen, Allan; Vach, Werner

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: According to most current guidelines, stable angina pectoris patients with a high probability of having coronary artery disease can be reliably identified clinically. OBJECTIVES: To examine the reliability of clinical evaluation with or without an at-rest electrocardiogram (ECG......) in patients with a high probability of coronary artery disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective series of 357 patients referred for coronary angiography (CA) for suspected stable angina pectoris were examined by a trained physician who judged their type of pain and Canadian Cardiovascular Society grade...... on CA. Of the patients who had also an abnormal at-rest ECG, 14% to 21% of men and 42% to 57% of women had normal MPS. Sex-related differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical prediction appears to be unreliable. Addition of at-rest ECG data results in some improvement, particularly...

Talking probabilities: communicating probalistic information with words and numbers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Renooij, S.; Witteman, C.L.M.

1999-01-01

The number of knowledge-based systems that build on Bayesian belief networks is increasing. The construction of such a network however requires a large number of probabilities in numerical form. This is often considered a major obstacle, one of the reasons being that experts are reluctant to provide

An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2012-01-01

This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2014-01-01

The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

Increased brain dopamine and dopamine receptors in schizophrenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackay, A.V.; Iversen, L.L.; Rossor, M.; Spokes, E.; Bird, E.; Arregui, A.; Creese, I.; Synder, S.H.

1982-01-01

In postmortem samples of caudate nucleus and nucleus accumbens from 48 schizophrenic patients, there were significant increases in both the maximum number of binding sites (Bmax) and the apparent dissociation constant (KD) for tritiated spiperone. The increase in apparent KD probably reflects the presence of residual neuroleptic drugs, but changes in Bmax for tritiated spiperone reflect genuine changes in receptor numbers. The increases in receptors were seen only in patients in whom neuroleptic medication had been maintained until the time of death, indicating that they may be entirely iatrogenic. Dopamine measurements for a larger series of schizophrenic and control cases (n greater than 60) show significantly increased concentrations in both the nucleus accumbens and caudate nucleus. The changes in dopamine were not obviously related to neuroleptic medication and, unlike the receptor changes, were most severe in younger patients

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

Quantum computing and probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferry, David K

2009-11-25

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

Quantum computing and probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferry, David K

2009-01-01

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

Persistent current and transmission probability in the Aharonov-Bohm ring with an embedded quantum dot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Suzhi; Li Ning; Jin Guojun; Ma Yuqiang

2008-01-01

Persistent current and transmission probability in the Aharonov-Bohm (AB) ring with an embedded quantum dot (QD) are studied using the technique of the scattering matrix. For the first time, we find that the persistent current can arise in the absence of magnetic flux in the ring with an embedded QD. The persistent current and the transmission probability are sensitive to the lead-ring coupling and the short-range potential barrier. It is shown that increasing the lead-ring coupling or the short-range potential barrier causes the suppression of the persistent current and the increasing resonance width of the transmission probability. The effect of the potential barrier on the number of the transmission peaks is also investigated. The dependence of the persistent current and the transmission probability on the magnetic flux exhibits a periodic property with period of the flux quantum

Effects of preparation time and trial type probability on performance of anti- and pro-saccades.

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

2016-02-01

Cognitive control optimizes responses to relevant task conditions by balancing bottom-up stimulus processing with top-down goal pursuit. It can be investigated using the ocular motor system by contrasting basic prosaccades (look toward a stimulus) with complex antisaccades (look away from a stimulus). Furthermore, the amount of time allotted between trials, the need to switch task sets, and the time allowed to prepare for an upcoming saccade all impact performance. In this study the relative probabilities of anti- and pro-saccades were manipulated across five blocks of interleaved trials, while the inter-trial interval and trial type cue duration were varied across subjects. Results indicated that inter-trial interval had no significant effect on error rates or reaction times (RTs), while a shorter trial type cue led to more antisaccade errors and faster overall RTs. Responses following a shorter cue duration also showed a stronger effect of trial type probability, with more antisaccade errors in blocks with a low antisaccade probability and slower RTs for each saccade task when its trial type was unlikely. A longer cue duration yielded fewer errors and slower RTs, with a larger switch cost for errors compared to a short cue duration. Findings demonstrated that when the trial type cue duration was shorter, visual motor responsiveness was faster and subjects relied upon the implicit trial probability context to improve performance. When the cue duration was longer, increased fixation-related activity may have delayed saccade motor preparation and slowed responses, guiding subjects to respond in a controlled manner regardless of trial type probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

Science.gov (United States)

Dinya, E

1998-04-26

The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

Contributions to quantum probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-01-01

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

2017-01-01

Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-01-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

Fostering Positive Attitude in Probability Learning Using Graphing Calculator

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Choo-Kim; Harji, Madhubala Bava; Lau, Siong-Hoe

2011-01-01

Although a plethora of research evidence highlights positive and significant outcomes of the incorporation of the Graphing Calculator (GC) in mathematics education, its use in the teaching and learning process appears to be limited. The obvious need to revisit the teaching and learning of Probability has resulted in this study, i.e. to incorporate…

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to

Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

2002-01-01

Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

Adjuvant Chemotherapy Improves the Probability of Freedom From Recurrence in Patients With Resected Stage IB Lung Adenocarcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Jung-Jyh; Wu, Yu-Chung; Chou, Teh-Ying; Jeng, Wen-Juei; Yeh, Yi-Chen; Hsu, Wen-Hu

2016-04-01

The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy remains controversial for patients with stage IB non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study investigated the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy and the predictors of benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage IB lung adenocarcinoma. A total of 243 patients with completely resected pathologic stage IB lung adenocarcinoma were included in the study. Predictors of the benefits of improved overall survival (OS) or probability of freedom from recurrence (FFR) from platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with resected stage IB lung adenocarcinoma were investigated. Among the 243 patients, 70 (28.8%) had received platinum-based doublet adjuvant chemotherapy. A micropapillary/solid-predominant pattern (versus an acinar/papillary-predominant pattern) was a significantly worse prognostic factor for probability of FFR (p = 0.033). Although adjuvant chemotherapy (versus surgical intervention alone) was not a significant prognostic factor for OS (p = 0.303), it was a significant prognostic factor for a better probability of FFR (p = 0.029) on multivariate analysis. In propensity-score-matched pairs, there was no significant difference in OS between patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and those who did not (p = 0.386). Patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy had a significantly better probability of FFR than those who did not (p = 0.043). For patients with a predominantly micropapillary/solid pattern, adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.033) was a significant prognostic factor for a better probability of FFR on multivariate analysis. Adjuvant chemotherapy is a favorable prognostic factor for the probability of FFR in patients with stage IB lung adenocarcinoma, particularly in those with a micropapillary/solid-predominant pattern. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana Bueno-Soler

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

Probability of burn-through of defective 13 kA splices at increased energy levels

CERN Document Server

Verweij, A

2011-01-01

In many 13 kA splices in the machine there is a lack of bonding between the superconducting cable and the stabilising copper along with a bad contact between the bus stabiliser and the splice stabiliser. In case of a quench of such a defective splice, the current cannot bypass the cable through the copper, hence leading to excessive local heating of the cable. This may result in a thermal runaway and burn-through of the cable in a time smaller than the time constant of the circuit. Since it is not possible to protect against this fast thermal run-away, one has to limit the current to a level that is small enough so that a burn-through cannot occur. Prompt quenching of the joint, and quenching due to heat propagation through the bus and through the helium are considered. Probabilities for joint burn-through are given for the RB circuit for beam energies of 3.5, 4 and 4.5 TeV, and a decay time constant of the RB circuit of 50 and 68 s.

Exploring non-signalling polytopes with negative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oas, G; Barros, J Acacio de; Carvalhaes, C

2014-01-01

Bipartite and tripartite EPR–Bell type systems are examined via joint quasi-probability distributions where probabilities are permitted to be negative. It is shown that such distributions exist only when the no-signalling condition is satisfied. A characteristic measure, the probability mass, is introduced and, via its minimization, limits the number of quasi-distributions describing a given marginal probability distribution. The minimized probability mass is shown to be an alternative way to characterize non-local systems. Non-signalling polytopes for two to eight settings in the bipartite scenario are examined and compared to prior work. Examining perfect cloning of non-local systems within the tripartite scenario suggests defining two categories of signalling. It is seen that many properties of non-local systems can be efficiently described by quasi-probability theory. (paper)

Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

CERN Document Server

Ibe, Oliver

2005-01-01

This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

The enigma of probability and physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayants, L.

1984-01-01

This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

Increasing the statistical significance of entanglement detection in experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Jungnitsch, Bastian; Niekamp, Sönke; Kleinmann, Matthias; Gühne, Otfried; Lu, He; Gao, Wei-Bo; Chen, Yu-Ao; Chen, Zeng-Bing; Pan, Jian-Wei

2010-05-28

Entanglement is often verified by a violation of an inequality like a Bell inequality or an entanglement witness. Considerable effort has been devoted to the optimization of such inequalities in order to obtain a high violation. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that such an optimization does not necessarily lead to a better entanglement test, if the statistical error is taken into account. Theoretically, we show for different error models that reducing the violation of an inequality can improve the significance. Experimentally, we observe this phenomenon in a four-photon experiment, testing the Mermin and Ardehali inequality for different levels of noise. Furthermore, we provide a way to develop entanglement tests with high statistical significance.

Frame representations of quantum mechanics and the necessity of negativity in quasi-probability representations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrie, Christopher; Emerson, Joseph

2008-01-01

Several finite-dimensional quasi-probability representations of quantum states have been proposed to study various problems in quantum information theory and quantum foundations. These representations are often defined only on restricted dimensions and their physical significance in contexts such as drawing quantum-classical comparisons is limited by the non-uniqueness of the particular representation. Here we show how the mathematical theory of frames provides a unified formalism which accommodates all known quasi-probability representations of finite-dimensional quantum systems. Moreover, we show that any quasi-probability representation is equivalent to a frame representation and then prove that any such representation of quantum mechanics must exhibit either negativity or a deformed probability calculus. (fast track communication)

F.Y. Edgeworth’s Treatise on Probabilities

OpenAIRE

Alberto Baccini

2007-01-01

Probability theory has a central role in Edgeworth’s thought; this paper examines the philosophical foundation of the theory. Starting from a frequentist position, Edgeworth introduced some innovations on the definition of primitive probabilities. He distinguished between primitive probabilities based on experience of statistical evidence, and primitive a priori probabilities based on a more general and less precise kind of experience, inherited by the human race through evolution. Given prim...

USING THE WEB-SERVICES WOLFRAM|ALPHA TO SOLVE PROBLEMS IN PROBABILITY THEORY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taras Kobylnyk

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The trend towards the use of remote network resources on the Internet clearly delineated. Traditional training combined with increasingly networked, remote technologies become popular cloud computing. Research methods of probability theory are used in various fields. Of particular note is the use of methods of probability theory in psychological and educational research in statistical analysis of experimental data. Conducting such research is impossible without the use of modern information technology. Given the advantages of web-based software, the article describes web-service Wolfram|Alpha. Detailed analysis of the possibilities of using web-service Wolfram|Alpha for solving problems of probability theory. In the case studies described the results of queries for solving of probability theory, in particular the sections random events and random variables. Considered and analyzed the problem of the number of occurrences of event A in n independent trials using Wolfram|Alpha, detailed analysis of the possibilities of using the service Wolfram|Alpha for the study of continuous random variable that has a normal and uniform probability distribution, including calculating the probability of getting the value of a random variable in a given interval. The problem in applying the binomial and hypergeometric probability distribution of a discrete random variable and demonstrates the possibility of using the service Wolfram|Alpha for solving it.

Sequential probability ratio controllers for safeguards radiation monitors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehlau, P.E.; Coop, K.L.; Nixon, K.V.

1984-01-01

Sequential hypothesis tests applied to nuclear safeguards accounting methods make the methods more sensitive to detecting diversion. The sequential tests also improve transient signal detection in safeguards radiation monitors. This paper describes three microprocessor control units with sequential probability-ratio tests for detecting transient increases in radiation intensity. The control units are designed for three specific applications: low-intensity monitoring with Poisson probability ratios, higher intensity gamma-ray monitoring where fixed counting intervals are shortened by sequential testing, and monitoring moving traffic where the sequential technique responds to variable-duration signals. The fixed-interval controller shortens a customary 50-s monitoring time to an average of 18 s, making the monitoring delay less bothersome. The controller for monitoring moving vehicles benefits from the sequential technique by maintaining more than half its sensitivity when the normal passage speed doubles

Are studies reporting significant results more likely to be published?

Science.gov (United States)

Koletsi, Despina; Karagianni, Anthi; Pandis, Nikolaos; Makou, Margarita; Polychronopoulou, Argy; Eliades, Theodore

2009-11-01

Our objective was to assess the hypothesis that there are variations of the proportion of articles reporting a significant effect, with a higher percentage of those articles published in journals with impact factors. The contents of 5 orthodontic journals (American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, Angle Orthodontist, European Journal of Orthodontics, Journal of Orthodontics, and Orthodontics and Craniofacial Research), published between 2004 and 2008, were hand-searched. Articles with statistical analysis of data were included in the study and classified into 4 categories: behavior and psychology, biomaterials and biomechanics, diagnostic procedures and treatment, and craniofacial growth, morphology, and genetics. In total, 2622 articles were examined, with 1785 included in the analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied with statistical significance as the dependent variable, and whether the journal had an impact factor, the subject, and the year were the independent predictors. A higher percentage of articles showed significant results relative to those without significant associations (on average, 88% vs 12%) for those journals. Overall, these journals published significantly more studies with significant results, ranging from 75% to 90% (P = 0.02). Multivariate modeling showed that journals with impact factors had a 100% increased probability of publishing a statistically significant result compared with journals with no impact factor (odds ratio [OR], 1.99; 95% CI, 1.19-3.31). Compared with articles on biomaterials and biomechanics, all other subject categories showed lower probabilities of significant results. Nonsignificant findings in behavior and psychology and diagnosis and treatment were 1.8 (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.51-2.67) and 3.5 (OR, 3.50; 95% CI, 2.27-5.37) times more likely to be published, respectively. Journals seem to prefer reporting significant results; this might be because of authors

Efficient Simulation of the Outage Probability of Multihop Systems

KAUST Repository

Ben Issaid, Chaouki; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Tempone, Raul

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an efficient importance sampling estimator for the evaluation of the outage probability of multihop systems with amplify-and-forward channel state-information-assisted. The proposed estimator is endowed with the bounded relative error property. Simulation results show a significant reduction in terms of number of simulation runs compared to naive Monte Carlo.

Efficient Simulation of the Outage Probability of Multihop Systems

KAUST Repository

Ben Issaid, Chaouki

2017-10-23

In this paper, we present an efficient importance sampling estimator for the evaluation of the outage probability of multihop systems with amplify-and-forward channel state-information-assisted. The proposed estimator is endowed with the bounded relative error property. Simulation results show a significant reduction in terms of number of simulation runs compared to naive Monte Carlo.

A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration.

Science.gov (United States)

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Chitnis, Nakul; Pothin, Emilie; Smith, Thomas A

2017-09-18

Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as an intervention to achieve local extinction of malaria. Although its effect on the reproduction number is short lived, extinction may subsequently occur in a small population due to stochastic fluctuations. This paper examines how the probability of stochastic extinction depends on population size, MDA coverage and the reproduction number under control, R c . A simple compartmental model is developed which is used to compute the probability of extinction using probability generating functions. The expected time to extinction in small populations after MDA for various scenarios in this model is calculated analytically. The results indicate that mass drug administration (Firstly, R c must be sustained at R c  95% to have a non-negligible probability of successful elimination. Stochastic fluctuations only significantly affect the probability of extinction in populations of about 1000 individuals or less. The expected time to extinction via stochastic fluctuation is less than 10 years only in populations less than about 150 individuals. Clustering of secondary infections and of MDA distribution both contribute positively to the potential probability of success, indicating that MDA would most effectively be administered at the household level. There are very limited circumstances in which MDA will lead to local malaria elimination with a substantial probability.

Approximation methods in probability theory

CERN Document Server

Čekanavičius, Vydas

2016-01-01

This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

Introduction to imprecise probabilities

CERN Document Server

Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

2014-01-01

In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

Classic Problems of Probability

CERN Document Server

Gorroochurn, Prakash

2012-01-01

"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

Contributions to quantum probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, Tobias

2010-06-25

Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Strauch

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m, and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

Science.gov (United States)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Nudurupati, Sai Siddhartha; Bandaragoda, Christina; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2018-02-01

We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m), and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

Dual Diagnosis and Suicide Probability in Poly-Drug Users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youssef, I. M.; Fahmy, M. T.; Haggag, W. L.; Mohamed, K. A.; Baalash, A. A.

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine the frequency of suicidal thoughts and suicidal probability among poly-substance abusers in Saudi population, and to examine the relation between dual diagnosis and suicidal thoughts. Study Design: Case control study. Place and Duration of Study: Al-Baha Psychiatric Hospital, Saudi Arabia, from May 2011 to Jun 2012. Methodology: Participants were 239 subjects, aged 18 - 45 years. We reviewed 122 individuals who fulfilled the DSM-IV-TR criteria of substance abuse for two or more substances, and their data were compared with that collected from 117 control persons. Results: Suicidal cases were highly present among poly-substance abusers 64.75 percentage. Amphetamine and cannabis were the most abused substances, (87.7 percentage and 70.49 percentage, respectively). A statistically significant association with suicidality was found with longer duration of substance abuse (p < 0.001), using alcohol (p=0.001), amphetamine (p=0.007), volatile substances (p=0.034), presence of comorbid psychiatric disorders (dual diagnosis) as substance induced mood disorder (p=0.001), schizo-affective disorder (p=0.017), major depressive disorders (p=0.001), antisocial (p=0.016) and borderline (p=0.005) personality disorder. Suicidal cases showed significant higher scores (p < 0.001) of suicide probability scale and higher scores in Beck depressive inventory (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Abusing certain substances for long duration, in addition to comorbid psychiatric disorders especially with disturbed-mood element, may trigger suicidal thoughts in poly-substance abusers. Depression and suicide probability is common consequences of substance abuse. (author)

Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Furber

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

Science.gov (United States)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Probability-of-Superiority SEM (PS-SEM—Detecting Probability-Based Multivariate Relationships in Behavioral Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnson Ching-Hong Li

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In behavioral research, exploring bivariate relationships between variables X and Y based on the concept of probability-of-superiority (PS has received increasing attention. Unlike the conventional, linear-based bivariate relationship (e.g., Pearson's correlation, PS defines that X and Y can be related based on their likelihood—e.g., a student who is above mean in SAT has 63% likelihood of achieving an above-mean college GPA. Despite its increasing attention, the concept of PS is restricted to a simple bivariate scenario (X-Y pair, which hinders the development and application of PS in popular multivariate modeling such as structural equation modeling (SEM. Therefore, this study addresses an empirical-based simulation study that explores the potential of detecting PS-based relationship in SEM, called PS-SEM. The simulation results showed that the proposed PS-SEM method can detect and identify PS-based when data follow PS-based relationships, thereby providing a useful method for researchers to explore PS-based SEM in their studies. Conclusions, implications, and future directions based on the findings are also discussed.

PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PROBABILITY CALIBRATION BY THE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PROBABILITY SCORES IN ONE-CLASS BAYES LEARNING FOR ANOMALY DETECTION GUICHONG LI, NATHALIE JAPKOWICZ, IAN HOFFMAN,...

Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

2003-01-01

General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

Phytohormone supplementation significantly increases growth of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii cultivated for biodiesel production.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Won-Kun; Yoo, Gursong; Moon, Myounghoon; Kim, Chul Woong; Choi, Yoon-E; Yang, Ji-Won

2013-11-01

Cultivation is the most expensive step in the production of biodiesel from microalgae, and substantial research has been devoted to developing more cost-effective cultivation methods. Plant hormones (phytohormones) are chemical messengers that regulate various aspects of growth and development and are typically active at very low concentrations. In this study, we investigated the effect of different phytohormones on microalgal growth and biodiesel production in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and their potential to lower the overall cost of commercial biofuel production. The results indicated that all five of the tested phytohormones (indole-3-acetic acid, gibberellic acid, kinetin, 1-triacontanol, and abscisic acid) promoted microalgal growth. In particular, hormone treatment increased biomass production by 54 to 69 % relative to the control growth medium (Tris-acetate-phosphate, TAP). Phytohormone treatments also affected microalgal cell morphology but had no effect on the yields of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) as a percent of biomass. We also tested the effect of these phytohormones on microalgal growth in nitrogen-limited media by supplementation in the early stationary phase. Maximum cell densities after addition of phytohormones were higher than in TAP medium, even when the nitrogen source was reduced to 40 % of that in TAP medium. Taken together, our results indicate that phytohormones significantly increased microalgal growth, particularly in nitrogen-limited media, and have potential for use in the development of efficient microalgal cultivation for biofuel production.

Foundations of the theory of probability

CERN Document Server

Kolmogorov, AN

2018-01-01

This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

A Semi-Continuous State-Transition Probability HMM-Based Voice Activity Detector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Othman

2007-02-01

Full Text Available We introduce an efficient hidden Markov model-based voice activity detection (VAD algorithm with time-variant state-transition probabilities in the underlying Markov chain. The transition probabilities vary in an exponential charge/discharge scheme and are softly merged with state conditional likelihood into a final VAD decision. Working in the domain of ITU-T G.729 parameters, with no additional cost for feature extraction, the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms G.729 Annex B VAD while providing a balanced tradeoff between clipping and false detection errors. The performance compares very favorably with the adaptive multirate VAD, option 2 (AMR2.

A Semi-Continuous State-Transition Probability HMM-Based Voice Activity Detector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Othman H

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We introduce an efficient hidden Markov model-based voice activity detection (VAD algorithm with time-variant state-transition probabilities in the underlying Markov chain. The transition probabilities vary in an exponential charge/discharge scheme and are softly merged with state conditional likelihood into a final VAD decision. Working in the domain of ITU-T G.729 parameters, with no additional cost for feature extraction, the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms G.729 Annex B VAD while providing a balanced tradeoff between clipping and false detection errors. The performance compares very favorably with the adaptive multirate VAD, option 2 (AMR2.

Probability an introduction with statistical applications

CERN Document Server

Kinney, John J

2014-01-01

Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiao-Kan

2018-03-01

We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Probability mapping of scarred myocardium using texture and intensity features in CMR images

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The myocardium exhibits heterogeneous nature due to scarring after Myocardial Infarction (MI). In Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging, Late Gadolinium (LG) contrast agent enhances the intensity of scarred area in the myocardium. Methods In this paper, we propose a probability mapping technique using Texture and Intensity features to describe heterogeneous nature of the scarred myocardium in Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) images after Myocardial Infarction (MI). Scarred tissue and non-scarred tissue are represented with high and low probabilities, respectively. Intermediate values possibly indicate areas where the scarred and healthy tissues are interwoven. The probability map of scarred myocardium is calculated by using a probability function based on Bayes rule. Any set of features can be used in the probability function. Results In the present study, we demonstrate the use of two different types of features. One is based on the mean intensity of pixel and the other on underlying texture information of the scarred and non-scarred myocardium. Examples of probability maps computed using the mean intensity of pixel and the underlying texture information are presented. We hypothesize that the probability mapping of myocardium offers alternate visualization, possibly showing the details with physiological significance difficult to detect visually in the original CMR image. Conclusion The probability mapping obtained from the two features provides a way to define different cardiac segments which offer a way to identify areas in the myocardium of diagnostic importance (like core and border areas in scarred myocardium). PMID:24053280

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2015-01-01

Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum–classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane). (paper)

Probability of fracture and life extension estimate of the high-flux isotope reactor vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, S.J.

1998-01-01

The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) for fracture, often denoted by RT NDT for carbon steel. This transition temperature can be calibrated by the drop-weight test and, sometimes, by the Charpy impact test. The life extension for the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics that is incorporated with the effect of the DBTT change. The failure probability of the HFIR vessel is limited as the life of the vessel by the reactor core melt probability of 10 -4 . The operating safety of the reactor is ensured by periodic hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest). The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test is calculated and is used to determine the life of the vessel. Failure to perform hydrotest imposes the limit on the life of the vessel. The conventional method of fracture probability calculations such as that used by the NRC-sponsored PRAISE CODE and the FAVOR CODE developed in this Laboratory are based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Heavy computations are required. An alternative method of fracture probability calculation by direct probability integration is developed in this paper. The present approach offers simple and expedient ways to obtain numerical results without losing any generality. In this paper, numerical results on (1) the probability of vessel fracture, (2) the hydrotest time interval, and (3) the hydrotest pressure as a result of the DBTT increase are obtained

The probabilities of one- and multi-track events for modeling radiation-induced cell kill

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schneider, Uwe; Vasi, Fabiano; Besserer, Juergen [University of Zuerich, Department of Physics, Science Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden, Zurich (Switzerland)

2017-08-15

In view of the clinical importance of hypofractionated radiotherapy, track models which are based on multi-hit events are currently reinvestigated. These models are often criticized, because it is believed that the probability of multi-track hits is negligible. In this work, the probabilities for one- and multi-track events are determined for different biological targets. The obtained probabilities can be used with nano-dosimetric cluster size distributions to obtain the parameters of track models. We quantitatively determined the probabilities for one- and multi-track events for 100, 500 and 1000 keV electrons, respectively. It is assumed that the single tracks are statistically independent and follow a Poisson distribution. Three different biological targets were investigated: (1) a DNA strand (2 nm scale); (2) two adjacent chromatin fibers (60 nm); and (3) fiber loops (300 nm). It was shown that the probabilities for one- and multi-track events are increasing with energy, size of the sensitive target structure, and dose. For a 2 x 2 x 2 nm{sup 3} target, one-track events are around 10,000 times more frequent than multi-track events. If the size of the sensitive structure is increased to 100-300 nm, the probabilities for one- and multi-track events are of the same order of magnitude. It was shown that target theories can play a role for describing radiation-induced cell death if the targets are of the size of two adjacent chromatin fibers or fiber loops. The obtained probabilities can be used together with the nano-dosimetric cluster size distributions to determine model parameters for target theories. (orig.)

Handbook of probability theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Rudas, Tamas

2008-01-01

""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari

Computation of the Complex Probability Function

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-08-22

The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the n^th degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

The Probabilities of Unique Events

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

Fixation probability of a nonmutator in a large population of asexual mutators.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Kavita; James, Ananthu

2017-11-21

In an adapted population of mutators in which most mutations are deleterious, a nonmutator that lowers the mutation rate is under indirect selection and can sweep to fixation. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large population of asexual mutators. We show that when beneficial mutations are absent, the fixation probability is a nonmonotonic function of the mutation rate of the mutator: it first increases sublinearly and then decreases exponentially. We also find that beneficial mutations can enhance the fixation probability of a nonmutator. Our analysis is relevant to an understanding of recent experiments in which a reduction in the mutation rates has been observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"I Don't Really Understand Probability at All": Final Year Pre-Service Teachers' Understanding of Probability

Science.gov (United States)

Maher, Nicole; Muir, Tracey

2014-01-01

This paper reports on one aspect of a wider study that investigated a selection of final year pre-service primary teachers' responses to four probability tasks. The tasks focused on foundational ideas of probability including sample space, independence, variation and expectation. Responses suggested that strongly held intuitions appeared to…

Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClure, J.D.

1981-07-01

The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

Increasing the statistical significance of entanglement detection in experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jungnitsch, Bastian; Niekamp, Soenke; Kleinmann, Matthias; Guehne, Otfried [Institut fuer Quantenoptik und Quanteninformation, Innsbruck (Austria); Lu, He; Gao, Wei-Bo; Chen, Zeng-Bing [Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at Microscale and Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei (China); Chen, Yu-Ao; Pan, Jian-Wei [Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at Microscale and Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei (China); Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Heidelberg (Germany)

2010-07-01

Entanglement is often verified by a violation of an inequality like a Bell inequality or an entanglement witness. Considerable effort has been devoted to the optimization of such inequalities in order to obtain a high violation. We demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that such an optimization does not necessarily lead to a better entanglement test, if the statistical error is taken into account. Theoretically, we show for different error models that reducing the violation of an inequality can improve the significance. We show this to be the case for an error model in which the variance of an observable is interpreted as its error and for the standard error model in photonic experiments. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Mermin inequality yields a Bell test which is statistically more significant than the Ardehali inequality in the case of a photonic four-qubit state that is close to a GHZ state. Experimentally, we observe this phenomenon in a four-photon experiment, testing the above inequalities for different levels of noise.

Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Schumann

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joop de Beer

2012-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. OBJECTIVE This article demonstrates how TOPALS can be used for both smoothing and projecting age-specific mortality for 26 European countries and compares the results of TOPALS with those of other smoothing and projection methods. METHODS TOPALS uses a linear spline to describe the ratios between the age-specific death probabilities of a given country and a standard age schedule. For smoothing purposes I use the average of death probabilities over 15 Western European countries as standard, whereas for projection purposes I use an age schedule of 'best practice' mortality. A partial adjustment model projects how quickly the death probabilities move in the direction of the best-practice level of mortality. RESULTS On average, TOPALS performs better than the Heligman-Pollard model and the Brass relational method in smoothing mortality age schedules. TOPALS can produce projections that are similar to those of the Lee-Carter method, but can easily be used to produce alternative scenarios as well. This article presents three projections of life expectancy at birth for the year 2060 for 26 European countries. The Baseline scenario assumes a continuation of the past trend in each country, the Convergence scenario assumes that there is a common trend across European countries, and the Acceleration scenario assumes that the future decline of death probabilities will exceed that in the past. The Baseline scenario projects that average European life expectancy at birth will increase to 80 years for men and 87 years for women in 2060, whereas the Acceleration scenario projects an increase to 90 and 93 years respectively. CONCLUSIONS TOPALS is a useful new tool for demographers for both smoothing age schedules and making scenarios.

Increase in tiagabine serum concentration with coadministration of gemfibrozil.

Science.gov (United States)

Burstein, Aaron H; Boudreau, Eilis A; Theodore, William H

2009-02-01

To report a case of possible acute tiagabine toxicity secondary to administration of gemfibrozil. A 39-year-old male was taking tiagabine 16 mg orally 3 times per day and carbamazepine 500 mg orally twice per day for complex partial seizures secondary to mesial temporal sclerosis. He was found to have type IV hypertriglyceridemia and was prescribed gemfibrozil. Because he reported severe confusion and altered consciousness shortly after a single 600-mg dose of gemfibrozil, he was admitted for controlled challenge with that drug. A single 300-mg dose of gemfibrozil resulted in lightheadedness and led to a 59% and 75% increase in total tiagabine serum concentrations at 2 and 5 hours, respectively, without significant change in baseline carbamazepine concentrations. This is the first report of an interaction between the widely used antihyperlipidemic drug gemfibrozil and tiagabine. Since tiagabine, which was originally developed as an antiepileptic medication, is now being used widely for a variety of other indications such as anxiety and depression, there is an increased risk for clinically significant interactions with gemfibrozil. Increased total and unbound tiagabine concentrations following a single 300-mg dose of gemfibrozil and reproduction of clinical symptoms with gemfibrozil rechallenge suggests the toxicity our patient experienced was due to a pharmacokinetic drug interaction. Use of the Horn Drug Interaction Probability Scale showed a probable interaction between gemfibrozil and tiagabine.

Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sashi

2015-01-01

There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

OpenAIRE

Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

2014-01-01

A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

Comparison of clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer and age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation to exclude venous thromboembolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Takach Lapner, Sarah; Julian, Jim A; Linkins, Lori-Ann; Bates, Shannon; Kearon, Clive

2017-10-05

Two new strategies for interpreting D-dimer results have been proposed: i) using a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age (age-adjusted strategy) and ii) using a D-dimer threshold in patients with low clinical probability that is twice the threshold used in patients with moderate clinical probability (clinical probability-adjusted strategy). Our objective was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of age-adjusted and clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation in patients with a low or moderate clinical probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical data and blood samples from two prospective studies. We compared the negative predictive value (NPV) for VTE, and the proportion of patients with a negative D-dimer result, using two D-dimer interpretation strategies: the age-adjusted strategy, which uses a progressively higher D-dimer threshold with increasing age over 50 years (age in years × 10 µg/L FEU); and the clinical probability-adjusted strategy which uses a D-dimer threshold of 1000 µg/L FEU in patients with low clinical probability and 500 µg/L FEU in patients with moderate clinical probability. A total of 1649 outpatients with low or moderate clinical probability for a first suspected deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism were included. The NPV of both the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (99.7 %) and the age-adjusted strategy (99.6 %) were similar. However, the proportion of patients with a negative result was greater with the clinical probability-adjusted strategy (56.1 % vs, 50.9 %; difference 5.2 %; 95 % CI 3.5 % to 6.8 %). These findings suggest that clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer interpretation is a better way of interpreting D-dimer results compared to age-adjusted interpretation.

Constructing inverse probability weights for continuous exposures: a comparison of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Naimi, Ashley I; Moodie, Erica E M; Auger, Nathalie; Kaufman, Jay S

2014-03-01

Inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models with binary exposures are common in epidemiology. Constructing inverse probability weights for a continuous exposure can be complicated by the presence of outliers, and the need to identify a parametric form for the exposure and account for nonconstant exposure variance. We explored the performance of various methods to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures using Monte Carlo simulation. We generated two continuous exposures and binary outcomes using data sampled from a large empirical cohort. The first exposure followed a normal distribution with homoscedastic variance. The second exposure followed a contaminated Poisson distribution, with heteroscedastic variance equal to the conditional mean. We assessed six methods to construct inverse probability weights using: a normal distribution, a normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a truncated normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a gamma distribution, a t distribution (1, 3, and 5 degrees of freedom), and a quantile binning approach (based on 10, 15, and 20 exposure categories). We estimated the marginal odds ratio for a single-unit increase in each simulated exposure in a regression model weighted by the inverse probability weights constructed using each approach, and then computed the bias and mean squared error for each method. For the homoscedastic exposure, the standard normal, gamma, and quantile binning approaches performed best. For the heteroscedastic exposure, the quantile binning, gamma, and heteroscedastic normal approaches performed best. Our results suggest that the quantile binning approach is a simple and versatile way to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures.

Multiple-event probability in general-relativistic quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellmann, Frank; Mondragon, Mauricio; Perez, Alejandro; Rovelli, Carlo

2007-01-01

We discuss the definition of quantum probability in the context of 'timeless' general-relativistic quantum mechanics. In particular, we study the probability of sequences of events, or multievent probability. In conventional quantum mechanics this can be obtained by means of the 'wave function collapse' algorithm. We first point out certain difficulties of some natural definitions of multievent probability, including the conditional probability widely considered in the literature. We then observe that multievent probability can be reduced to single-event probability, by taking into account the quantum nature of the measuring apparatus. In fact, by exploiting the von-Neumann freedom of moving the quantum/classical boundary, one can always trade a sequence of noncommuting quantum measurements at different times, with an ensemble of simultaneous commuting measurements on the joint system+apparatus system. This observation permits a formulation of quantum theory based only on single-event probability, where the results of the wave function collapse algorithm can nevertheless be recovered. The discussion also bears on the nature of the quantum collapse

Attenuated associations between increasing BMI and unfavorable lipid profiles in Chinese Buddhist vegetarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hui-Jie; Han, Peng; Sun, Su-Yun; Wang, Li-Ying; Yan, Bing; Zhang, Jin-Hua; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Shu-Yu; Li, Xue-Jun

2013-01-01

Obesity is related to hyperlipidemia and risk of cardiovascular disease. Health benefits of vegetarian diets have well-documented in the Western countries where both obesity and hyperlipidemia were prevalent. We studied the association between BMI and various lipid/lipoprotein measures, as well as between BMI and predicted coronary heart disease probability in lean, low risk populations in Southern China. The study included 170 Buddhist monks (vegetarians) and 126 omnivore men. Interaction between BMI and vegetarian status was tested in the multivariable regression analysis adjusting for age, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, and physical activity. Compared with omnivores, vegetarians had significantly lower mean BMI, blood pressures, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein ratio, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B and A-I, as well as lower predicted probability of coronary heart disease. Higher BMI was associated with unfavorable lipid/lipoprotein profile and predicted probability of coronary heart disease in both vegetarians and omnivores. However, the associations were significantly diminished in Buddhist vegetarians. Vegetarian diets not only lower BMI, but also attenuate the BMI-related increases of atherogenic lipid/ lipoprotein and the probability of coronary heart disease.

Evaluation of probability and hazard in nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novikov, V.Ya.; Romanov, N.L.

1979-01-01

Various methods of evaluation of accident probability on NPP are proposed because of NPP security statistic evaluation unreliability. The conception of subjective probability for quantitative analysis of security and hazard are described. Intrepretation of probability as real faith of an expert is assumed as a basis of the conception. It is suggested to study the event uncertainty in the framework of subjective probability theory which not only permits but demands to take into account expert opinions when evaluating the probability. These subjective expert evaluations effect to a certain extent the calculation of the usual mathematical event probability. The above technique is advantageous to use for consideration of a separate experiment or random event

Safeguarding a Lunar Rover with Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test

Science.gov (United States)

Furlong, Michael; Dille, Michael; Wong, Uland; Nefian, Ara

2016-01-01

The virtual bumper is a safeguarding mechanism for autonomous and remotely operated robots. In this paper we take a new approach to the virtual bumper system by using an old statistical test. By using a modified version of Wald's sequential probability ratio test we demonstrate that we can reduce the number of false positive reported by the virtual bumper, thereby saving valuable mission time. We use the concept of sequential probability ratio to control vehicle speed in the presence of possible obstacles in order to increase certainty about whether or not obstacles are present. Our new algorithm reduces the chances of collision by approximately 98 relative to traditional virtual bumper safeguarding without speed control.

Reading the copepod personal ads : increasing encounter probability with hydromechanical signals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Duren, LA; Stamhuis, EJ; Videler, JJ

1998-01-01

Females of the calanoid copepod Temora longicornis react to chemical exudates of male conspecifics with little hops, quite distinct from their normal smooth uniform swimming motion. These hops possibly serve to create a hydrodynamical signal in the surrounding water, to increase encounter

p-adic probability interpretation of Bell's inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, A.

1995-01-01

We study the violation of Bell's inequality using a p-adic generalization of the theory of probability. p-adic probability is introduced as a limit of relative frequencies but this limit exists with respect to a p-adic metric. In particular, negative probability distributions are well defined on the basis of the frequency definition. This new type of stochastics can be used to describe hidden-variables distributions of some quantum models. If the hidden variables have a p-adic probability distribution, Bell's inequality is not valid and it is not necessary to discuss the experimental violations of this inequality. ((orig.))

A framework to estimate probability of diagnosis error in NPP advanced MCR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ar Ryum; Kim, Jong Hyun; Jang, Inseok; Seong, Poong Hyun

2018-01-01

Highlights: •As new type of MCR has been installed in NPPs, the work environment is considerably changed. •A new framework to estimate operators’ diagnosis error probabilities should be proposed. •Diagnosis error data were extracted from the full-scope simulator of the advanced MCR. •Using Bayesian inference, a TRC model was updated for use in advanced MCR. -- Abstract: Recently, a new type of main control room (MCR) has been adopted in nuclear power plants (NPPs). The new MCR, known as the advanced MCR, consists of digitalized human-system interfaces (HSIs), computer-based procedures (CPS), and soft controls while the conventional MCR includes many alarm tiles, analog indicators, hard-wired control devices, and paper-based procedures. These changes significantly affect the generic activities of the MCR operators, in relation to diagnostic activities. The aim of this paper is to suggest a framework to estimate the probabilities of diagnosis errors in the advanced MCR by updating a time reliability correlation (TRC) model. Using Bayesian inference, the TRC model was updated with the probabilities of diagnosis errors. Here, the diagnosis error data were collected from a full-scope simulator of the advanced MCR. To do this, diagnosis errors were determined based on an information processing model and their probabilities were calculated. However, these calculated probabilities of diagnosis errors were largely affected by context factors such as procedures, HSI, training, and others, known as PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors). In order to obtain the nominal diagnosis error probabilities, the weightings of PSFs were also evaluated. Then, with the nominal diagnosis error probabilities, the TRC model was updated. This led to the proposal of a framework to estimate the nominal probabilities of diagnosis errors in the advanced MCR.

Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1979-03-01

A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

Modelling the probability of building fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojtěch Barták

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.

Main factors for fatigue failure probability of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Machida, Hideo; Suzuki, Masaaki; Kasahara, Naoto

2015-01-01

It is very important to grasp failure probability and failure mode appropriately to carry out risk reduction measures of nuclear power plants. To clarify the important factors for failure probability and failure mode of pipes subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation, failure probability analyses were performed by changing the values of a stress range, stress ratio, stress components and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factors for the failure probability are range, stress ratio (mean stress condition) and threshold of stress intensity factor range. The important factor for the failure mode is a circumferential angle range of fluid thermal fluctuation. When a large fluid thermal fluctuation acts on the entire circumferential surface of the pipe, the probability of pipe breakage increases, calling for measures to prevent such a failure and reduce the risk to the plant. When the circumferential angle subjected to fluid thermal fluctuation is small, the failure mode of piping is leakage and the corrective maintenance might be applicable from the viewpoint of risk to the plant. (author)

Improved detection probability of low level light and infrared image fusion system

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yuxiang; Fu, Rongguo; Zhang, Junju; Wang, Wencong; Chang, Benkang

2018-02-01

Low level light(LLL) image contains rich information on environment details, but is easily affected by the weather. In the case of smoke, rain, cloud or fog, much target information will lose. Infrared image, which is from the radiation produced by the object itself, can be "active" to obtain the target information in the scene. However, the image contrast and resolution is bad, the ability of the acquisition of target details is very poor, and the imaging mode does not conform to the human visual habit. The fusion of LLL and infrared image can make up for the deficiency of each sensor and give play to the advantages of single sensor. At first, we show the hardware design of fusion circuit. Then, through the recognition probability calculation of the target(one person) and the background image(trees), we find that the trees detection probability of LLL image is higher than that of the infrared image, and the person detection probability of the infrared image is obviously higher than that of LLL image. The detection probability of fusion image for one person and trees is higher than that of single detector. Therefore, image fusion can significantly enlarge recognition probability and improve detection efficiency.

Probability theory

CERN Document Server

Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

1997-01-01

This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

Science.gov (United States)

Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

2011-01-01

The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acacio de Barros, J.

2012-01-01

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

2012-12-18

In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

2014-01-01

The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

2007-01-01

Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

Selected papers on probability and statistics

CERN Document Server

2009-01-01

This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1996-01-01

To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

1996-01-01

To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners.

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, R

1992-06-01

The "problem of three prisoners", a counterintuitive teaser, is analyzed. It is representative of a class of probability puzzles where the correct solution depends on explication of underlying assumptions. Spontaneous beliefs concerning the problem and intuitive heuristics are reviewed. The psychological background of these beliefs is explored. Several attempts to find a simple criterion to predict whether and how the probability of the target event will change as a result of obtaining evidence are examined. However, despite the psychological appeal of these attempts, none proves to be valid in general. A necessary and sufficient condition for change in the probability of the target event, following observation of new data, is proposed. That criterion is an extension of the likelihood-ratio principle (which holds in the case of only two complementary alternatives) to any number of alternatives. Some didactic implications concerning the significance of the chance set-up and reliance on analogies are discussed.

Orthogonal Algorithm of Logic Probability and Syndrome-Testable Analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

1990-01-01

A new method,orthogonal algoritm,is presented to compute the logic probabilities(i.e.signal probabilities)accurately,The transfer properties of logic probabilities are studied first,which are useful for the calculation of logic probability of the circuit with random independent inputs.Then the orthogonal algoritm is described to compute the logic probability of Boolean function realized by a combinational circuit.This algorithm can make Boolean function “ORTHOGONAL”so that the logic probabilities can be easily calculated by summing up the logic probabilities of all orthogonal terms of the Booleam function.

Probability sampling in legal cases: Kansas cellphone users

Science.gov (United States)

Kadane, Joseph B.

2012-10-01

Probability sampling is a standard statistical technique. This article introduces the basic ideas of probability sampling, and shows in detail how probability sampling was used in a particular legal case.

Recent trends in the probability of high out-of-pocket medical expenses in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katherine E Baird

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: This article measures the probability that out-of-pocket expenses in the United States exceed a threshold share of income. It calculates this probability separately by individuals’ health condition, income, and elderly status and estimates changes occurring in these probabilities between 2010 and 2013. Data and Method: This article uses nationally representative household survey data on 344,000 individuals. Logistic regressions estimate the probabilities that out-of-pocket expenses exceed 5% and alternatively 10% of income in the two study years. These probabilities are calculated for individuals based on their income, health status, and elderly status. Results: Despite favorable changes in both health policy and the economy, large numbers of Americans continue to be exposed to high out-of-pocket expenditures. For instance, the results indicate that in 2013 over a quarter of nonelderly low-income citizens in poor health spent 10% or more of their income on out-of-pocket expenses, and over 40% of this group spent more than 5%. Moreover, for Americans as a whole, the probability of spending in excess of 5% of income on out-of-pocket costs increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2010 and 2013, with the largest increases occurring among low-income Americans; the probability of Americans spending more than 10% of income grew from 9.3% to 9.6%, with the largest increases also occurring among the poor. Conclusion: The magnitude of out-of-pocket’s financial burden and the most recent upward trends in it underscore a need to develop good measures of the degree to which health care policy exposes individuals to financial risk, and to closely monitor the Affordable Care Act’s success in reducing Americans’ exposure to large medical bills.

Log-concave Probability Distributions: Theory and Statistical Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

An, Mark Yuing

1996-01-01

This paper studies the broad class of log-concave probability distributions that arise in economics of uncertainty and information. For univariate, continuous, and log-concave random variables we prove useful properties without imposing the differentiability of density functions. Discrete...... and multivariate distributions are also discussed. We propose simple non-parametric testing procedures for log-concavity. The test statistics are constructed to test one of the two implicati ons of log-concavity: increasing hazard rates and new-is-better-than-used (NBU) property. The test for increasing hazard...... rates are based on normalized spacing of the sample order statistics. The tests for NBU property fall into the category of Hoeffding's U-statistics...

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

2016-01-01

This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

Assessing the probability of carbon and greenhouse gas benefit from the management of peat soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrall, F.; Bell, M.J.; Bhogal, A.

2010-01-01

This study proposes a method for assessing the probability that land management interventions will lead to an improvement in the carbon sink represented by peat soils. The method is able to: combine studies of different carbon uptake and release pathways in order to assess changes on the overall carbon or greenhouse gas budget; calculate the probability of the management or restoration leading to an improvement in the budget; calculate the uncertainty in that probability estimate; estimate the equivalent number of complete budgets available from the combination of the literature; test the difference in the outcome of different land management interventions; and provide a method for updating the predicted probabilities as new studies become available. Using this methodology, this study considered the impact of: afforestation, managed burning, drainage, drain-blocking, grazing removal; and revegetation, on the carbon budget of peat soils in the UK. The study showed that afforestation, drain-blocking, revegetation, grazing removal and cessation of managed burning would bring a carbon benefit, whereas deforestation, managed burning and drainage would bring a disbenefit. The predicted probabilities of a benefit are often equivocal as each management type or restoration often leads to increase in uptake in one pathway while increasing losses in another.

Convergence of Transition Probability Matrix in CLVMarkov Models

Science.gov (United States)

Permana, D.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Suprayogi, S.

2018-04-01

A transition probability matrix is an arrangement of transition probability from one states to another in a Markov chain model (MCM). One of interesting study on the MCM is its behavior for a long time in the future. The behavior is derived from one property of transition probabilty matrix for n steps. This term is called the convergence of the n-step transition matrix for n move to infinity. Mathematically, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is finding the limit of the transition matrix which is powered by n where n moves to infinity. The convergence form of the transition probability matrix is very interesting as it will bring the matrix to its stationary form. This form is useful for predicting the probability of transitions between states in the future. The method usually used to find the convergence of transition probability matrix is through the process of limiting the distribution. In this paper, the convergence of the transition probability matrix is searched using a simple concept of linear algebra that is by diagonalizing the matrix.This method has a higher level of complexity because it has to perform the process of diagonalization in its matrix. But this way has the advantage of obtaining a common form of power n of the transition probability matrix. This form is useful to see transition matrix before stationary. For example cases are taken from CLV model using MCM called Model of CLV-Markov. There are several models taken by its transition probability matrix to find its convergence form. The result is that the convergence of the matrix of transition probability through diagonalization has similarity with convergence with commonly used distribution of probability limiting method.

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

Probability of Interference-Optimal and Energy-Efficient Analysis for Topology Control in Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Li

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Because wireless sensor networks (WSNs have been widely used in recent years, how to reduce their energy consumption and interference has become a major issue. Topology control is a common and effective approach to improve network performance, such as reducing the energy consumption and network interference, improving the network connectivity, etc. Many topology control algorithms reduce network interference by dynamically adjusting the node transmission range. However, reducing the network interference by adjusting the transmission range is probabilistic. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the probability of interference-optimality for the WSNs and prove that the probability of interference-optimality increases with the increasing of the original transmission range. Under a specific transmission range, the probability reaches the maximum value when the transmission range is 0.85r in homogeneous networks and 0.84r in heterogeneous networks. In addition, we also prove that when the network is energy-efficient, the network is also interference-optimal with probability 1 both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous networks.

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

Science.gov (United States)

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Depressive symptoms and incidence of mild cognitive impairment and probable dementia in elderly women: the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Goveas, Joseph S; Espeland, Mark A; Woods, Nancy F; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Kotchen, Jane M

2011-01-01

To examine whether significant depressive symptoms in postmenopausal women increases the risk of subsequent mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. Prospective cohort study. Thirty nine of the 40 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical centers that participated in a randomized clinical trial of hormone therapy. Six thousand three hundred seventy-six postmenopausal women without cognitive impairment aged 65 to 79 at baseline. Depressive disorders were assessed using an eight-item Burnam algorithm and followed annually for a mean period of 5.4 years. A central adjudication committee classified the presence of MCI and probable dementia based on an extensive neuropsychiatric examination. Eight percent of postmenopausal women in this sample reported depressive symptoms above a 0.06 cut point on the Burnam algorithm. Depressive disorder at baseline was associated with greater risk of incident MCI (hazard ratio (HR)=1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.33-2.94), probable dementia (HR=2.03, 95% CI=1.15-3.60), and MCI or probable dementia (HR=1.92, 95% CI=1.35-2.73) after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle and vascular risk factors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, antidepressant use, and current and past hormone therapy status. Assignment to hormone therapy and baseline cognitive function did not affect these relationships. Women without depression who endorsed a remote history of depression had a higher risk of developing dementia. Clinically significant depressive symptoms in women aged 65 and older are independently associated with greater incidence of MCI and probable dementia. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Voltage dependency of transmission probability of aperiodic DNA molecule

Science.gov (United States)

Wiliyanti, V.; Yudiarsah, E.

2017-07-01

Characteristics of electron transports in aperiodic DNA molecules have been studied. Double stranded DNA model with the sequences of bases, GCTAGTACGTGACGTAGCTAGGATATGCCTGA, in one chain and its complements on the other chains has been used. Tight binding Hamiltonian is used to model DNA molecules. In the model, we consider that on-site energy of the basis has a linearly dependency on the applied electric field. Slater-Koster scheme is used to model electron hopping constant between bases. The transmission probability of electron from one electrode to the next electrode is calculated using a transfer matrix technique and scattering matrix method simultaneously. The results show that, generally, higher voltage gives a slightly larger value of the transmission probability. The applied voltage seems to shift extended states to lower energy. Meanwhile, the value of the transmission increases with twisting motion frequency increment.

Onychomycosis by Fusarium oxysporum probably acquired in utero

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vania O. Carvalho

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Fusarium oxysporum has been described as a pathogen causing onychomycosis, its incidence has been increasing in immunocompetent and disseminated infection can occur in immunosuppressed individuals. We describe the first case of congenital onychomycosis in a child caused by Fusarium oxysporum. The infection being acquired in utero was proven by molecular methods with the identification of the fungus both in the nail and placenta, most probably as an ascending contamination/infection in a HIV-positive, immunosuppressed mother.

Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

2014-06-01

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimating rear-end accident probabilities at signalized intersections: a comparison study of intersections with and without green signal countdown devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Ying; Li, Keping

2014-01-01

Rear-end accidents are the most common accident type at signalized intersections, because the diversity of actions taken increases due to signal change. Green signal countdown devices (GSCDs), which have been widely installed in Asia, are thought to have the potential of improving capacity and reducing accidents, but some negative effects on intersection safety have been observed in practice; for example, an increase in rear-end accidents. A microscopic modeling approach was applied to estimate rear-end accident probability during the phase transition interval in the study. The rear-end accident probability is determined by the following probabilities: (1) a leading vehicle makes a "stop" decision, which was formulated by using a binary logistic model, and (2) the following vehicle fails to stop in the available stopping distance, which is closely related to the critical deceleration used by the leading vehicle. Based on the field observation carried out at 2 GSCD intersections and 2 NGSCD intersections (i.e., intersections without GSCD devices) along an arterial in Suzhou, the rear-end probabilities at GSCD and NGSCD intersections were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggested that, on the one hand, GSCDs caused significantly negative safety effects during the flashing green interval, especially for vehicles in a zone ranging from 15 to 70 m; on the other hand, GSCD devices were helpful in reducing rear-end accidents during the yellow interval, especially in a zone from 0 to 50 m. GSCDs helped shorten indecision zones and reduce rear-end collisions near the stop line during the yellow interval, but they easily resulted in risky car following behavior and much higher rear-end collision probabilities at indecision zones during both flashing green and yellow intervals. GSCDs are recommended to be cautiously installed and education on safe driving behavior should be available.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

Science.gov (United States)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Some open problems in noncommutative probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruszynski, P.

1981-01-01

A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

Counterexamples in probability

CERN Document Server

Stoyanov, Jordan M

2013-01-01

While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

Changes in rocket salad phytochemicals within the commercial supply chain: Glucosinolates, isothiocyanates, amino acids and bacterial load increase significantly after processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Luke; Yahya, Hanis Nadia; Oloyede, Omobolanle Oluwadamilola; Methven, Lisa; Wagstaff, Carol

2017-04-15

Five cultivars of Eruca sativa and a commercial variety of Diplotaxis tenuifolia were grown in the UK (summer) and subjected to commercial growth, harvesting and processing, with subsequent shelf life storage. Glucosinolates (GSL), isothiocyanates (ITC), amino acids (AA), free sugars, and bacterial loads were analysed throughout the supply chain to determine the effects on phytochemical compositions. Bacterial load of leaves increased significantly over time and peaked during shelf life storage. Significant correlations were observed with GSL and AA concentrations, suggesting a previously unknown relationship between plants and endemic leaf bacteria. GSLs, ITCs and AAs increased significantly after processing and during shelf life. The supply chain did not significantly affect glucoraphanin concentrations, and its ITC sulforaphane significantly increased during shelf life in E. sativa cultivars. We hypothesise that commercial processing may increase the nutritional value of the crop, and have added health benefits for the consumer. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Triglyceride content in remnant lipoproteins is significantly increased after food intake and is associated with plasma lipoprotein lipase.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakajima, Katsuyuki; Tokita, Yoshiharu; Sakamaki, Koji; Shimomura, Younosuke; Kobayashi, Junji; Kamachi, Keiko; Tanaka, Akira; Stanhope, Kimber L; Havel, Peter J; Wang, Tao; Machida, Tetsuo; Murakami, Masami

2017-02-01

Previous large population studies reported that non-fasting plasma triglyceride (TG) reflect a higher risk for cardiovascular disease than TG in the fasting plasma. This is suggestive of the presence of higher concentration of remnant lipoproteins (RLP) in postprandial plasma. TG and RLP-TG together with other lipids, lipoproteins and lipoprotein lipase (LPL) in both fasting and postprandial plasma were determined in generally healthy volunteers and in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) after consuming a fat load or a more typical moderate meal. RLP-TG/TG ratio (concentration) and RLP-TG/RLP-C ratio (particle size) were significantly increased in the postprandial plasma of both healthy controls and CAD patients compared with those in fasting plasma. LPL/RLP-TG ratio demonstrated the interaction correlation between RLP concentration and LPL activity The increased RLP-TG after fat consumption contributed to approximately 90% of the increased plasma TG, while approximately 60% after a typical meal. Plasma LPL in postprandial plasma was not significantly altered after either type of meal. Concentrations of RLP-TG found in the TG along with its particle size are significantly increased in postprandial plasma compared with fasting plasma. Therefore, non-fasting TG determination better reflects the presence of higher RLP concentrations in plasma. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the shake-off probability for atomic systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, A.C.F., E-mail: toniufrj@gmail.com [Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, P.O. Box 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Almeida, D.P. [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-900 Florianópolis (Brazil)

2016-07-15

Highlights: • The scope is to find the relationship among SO probabilities, Z and electron density. • A scaling law is suggested, allowing us to find the SO probabilities for atoms. • SO probabilities have been scaled as a function of target Z and polarizability. - Abstract: The main scope in this work has been upon the relationship between shake-off probabilities, target atomic number and electron density. By comparing the saturation values of measured double-to-single photoionization ratios from the literature, a simple scaling law has been found, which allows us to predict the shake-off probabilities for several elements up to Z = 54 within a factor 2. The electron shake-off probabilities accompanying valence shell photoionization have been scaled as a function of the target atomic number, Z, and polarizability, α. This behavior is in qualitative agreement with the experimental results.

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

Outage Probability Analysis of FSO Links over Foggy Channel

KAUST Repository

Esmail, Maged Abdullah

2017-02-22

Outdoor Free space optic (FSO) communication systems are sensitive to atmospheric impairments such as turbulence and fog, in addition to being subject to pointing errors. Fog is particularly severe because it induces an attenuation that may vary from few dBs up to few hundreds of dBs per kilometer. Pointing errors also distort the link alignment and cause signal fading. In this paper, we investigate and analyze the FSO systems performance under fog conditions and pointing errors in terms of outage probability. We then study the impact of several effective communication mitigation techniques that can improve the system performance including multi-hop, transmit laser selection (TLS) and hybrid RF/FSO transmission. Closed-form expressions for the outage probability are derived and practical and comprehensive numerical examples are suggested to assess the obtained results. We found that the FSO system has limited performance that prevents applying FSO in wireless microcells that have a 500 m minimum cell radius. The performance degrades more when pointing errors appear. Increasing the transmitted power can improve the performance under light to moderate fog. However, under thick and dense fog the improvement is negligible. Using mitigation techniques can play a major role in improving the range and outage probability.

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

Outage Probability Analysis of FSO Links over Foggy Channel

KAUST Repository

Esmail, Maged Abdullah; Fathallah, Habib; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2017-01-01

Outdoor Free space optic (FSO) communication systems are sensitive to atmospheric impairments such as turbulence and fog, in addition to being subject to pointing errors. Fog is particularly severe because it induces an attenuation that may vary from few dBs up to few hundreds of dBs per kilometer. Pointing errors also distort the link alignment and cause signal fading. In this paper, we investigate and analyze the FSO systems performance under fog conditions and pointing errors in terms of outage probability. We then study the impact of several effective communication mitigation techniques that can improve the system performance including multi-hop, transmit laser selection (TLS) and hybrid RF/FSO transmission. Closed-form expressions for the outage probability are derived and practical and comprehensive numerical examples are suggested to assess the obtained results. We found that the FSO system has limited performance that prevents applying FSO in wireless microcells that have a 500 m minimum cell radius. The performance degrades more when pointing errors appear. Increasing the transmitted power can improve the performance under light to moderate fog. However, under thick and dense fog the improvement is negligible. Using mitigation techniques can play a major role in improving the range and outage probability.

Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, M.

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

Probability theory a foundational course

CERN Document Server

Pakshirajan, R P

2013-01-01

This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

Probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy of South African registered dietitians.

Science.gov (United States)

Paterson, Marie; Green, J M; Basson, C J; Ross, F

2002-02-01

There is little information on the probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy in the literature regarding dietitians. The objective of this study was to establish baseline information of these attributes and the factors affecting them. Questionnaires collecting biographical information and self-assessment psychometric scales measuring levels of probability of assertiveness, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy were mailed to 350 subjects, who comprised a random sample of dietitians registered with the Health Professions Council of South Africa. Forty-one per cent (n=145) of the sample responded. Self-assessment inventory results were compared to test levels of probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy. The inventory results were compared with the biographical findings to establish statistical relationships between the variables. The hypotheses were formulated before data collection. Dietitians had acceptable levels of probability of assertive behaviour and interpersonal anxiety. The probability of assertive behaviour was significantly lower than the level noted in the literature and was negatively related to interpersonal anxiety and positively related to self-efficacy.

Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cinicioglu Esma Nur

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grain.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmouttie, David; Kiermeier, Andreas; Hamilton, Grant

2010-12-01

The presence of insects in stored grain is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspection of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and thereby to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grain, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper, a sampling methodology is demonstrated that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grain. It is shown that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling programme to detect insects in bulk grain. The results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. It is also demonstrated that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grain increases as the number of subsamples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. This study underlines the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Epistemology and Probability

CERN Document Server

Plotnitsky, Arkady

2010-01-01

Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

Science.gov (United States)

Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

Statistical significance of cis-regulatory modules

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith Andrew D

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is becoming increasingly important for researchers to be able to scan through large genomic regions for transcription factor binding sites or clusters of binding sites forming cis-regulatory modules. Correspondingly, there has been a push to develop algorithms for the rapid detection and assessment of cis-regulatory modules. While various algorithms for this purpose have been introduced, most are not well suited for rapid, genome scale scanning. Results We introduce methods designed for the detection and statistical evaluation of cis-regulatory modules, modeled as either clusters of individual binding sites or as combinations of sites with constrained organization. In order to determine the statistical significance of module sites, we first need a method to determine the statistical significance of single transcription factor binding site matches. We introduce a straightforward method of estimating the statistical significance of single site matches using a database of known promoters to produce data structures that can be used to estimate p-values for binding site matches. We next introduce a technique to calculate the statistical significance of the arrangement of binding sites within a module using a max-gap model. If the module scanned for has defined organizational parameters, the probability of the module is corrected to account for organizational constraints. The statistical significance of single site matches and the architecture of sites within the module can be combined to provide an overall estimation of statistical significance of cis-regulatory module sites. Conclusion The methods introduced in this paper allow for the detection and statistical evaluation of single transcription factor binding sites and cis-regulatory modules. The features described are implemented in the Search Tool for Occurrences of Regulatory Motifs (STORM and MODSTORM software.

The Probability of Uranium Deposit Occurrences at Hatapang and Its Surrounding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soepradto-Tjokrokardono; Ngadenin

2004-01-01

This study was carried out based on a geological condition of Hatapang and is surroundings areas that are favourable for uranium accumulation, which are indicated by the existence of granite high uranium content, having mobilizations process and uranium trapping rocks. Referring to the plate tectonic and geochemical situation of Hatapang, those condition will give a significant indications for the possible occurrence of deposit of uranium in the area. The goal of this study is to know the probability occurrences of uranium deposit based on the regional tectonic, geology, mineralogy, geochemical, and radioactivity characters. It is concluded that Hatapang granite is potential for U source granite, and U deposit of black shale type is probably accurate in this area. (author)

Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

2018-01-02

We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

The estimation of small probabilities and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalbfleisch, J.D.; Lawless, J.F.; MacKay, R.J.

1982-01-01

The primary contribution of statistics to risk assessment is in the estimation of probabilities. Frequently the probabilities in question are small, and their estimation is particularly difficult. The authors consider three examples illustrating some problems inherent in the estimation of small probabilities

Probability Weighting and Loss Aversion in Futures Hedging

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mattos, F.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

2008-01-01

We analyze how the introduction of probability weighting and loss aversion in a futures hedging model affects decision making. Analytical findings indicate that probability weighting alone always affects optimal hedge ratios, while loss and risk aversion only have an impact when probability

Influence of anthropogenic activities on PAHs in sediments in a significant gulf of low-latitude developing regions, the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea: distribution, sources, inventory and probability risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Pingyang; Xue, Rui; Wang, Yinghui; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhang, Gan

2015-01-15

Fifteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 41 surface sediment samples and a sediment core (50 cm) from the Beibu Gulf, a significant low-latitude developing gulf, were analyzed. PAHs concentrations were 3.01-388 ng g(-)(1) (mean 95.5 ng g(-)(1)) in the surface sediments and 10.5-87.1 ng g(-)(1) (average 41.1 ng g(-)(1)) in the sediment core. Source apportionment indicated that PAHs were generated from coke production and vehicular emissions (39.4%), coal and biomass combustion (35.8%), and petrogenic sources (24.8%). PAHs were mainly concentrated in the industrialized and urbanized regions and the harbor, and were transported by atmospheric deposition to the marine matrix. The mass inventory (1.57-2.62t) and probability risk showed sediments here served as an important reservoir but low PAH risk. Different from oil and natural gas in developed regions, coal combustion has always been a significant energy consumption pattern in this developing region for the past 30 years (56 ± 5%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Hsu, Elton P

1999-01-01

This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

Waste Package Misload Probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knudsen, J.K.

2001-01-01

The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

Fusion-fission probabilities, cross sections, and structure notes of superheavy nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kowal, Michał; Cap, Tomasz; Jachimowicz, Piotr; Skalski, Janusz; Siwek-Wilczyńska, Krystyna; Wilczyński, Janusz

2016-01-01

Fusion – fission probabilities in the synthesis of heaviest elements are discussed in the context of the latest experimental reports. Cross sections for superheavy nuclei are evaluated using the “Fusion by Diffusion” (FBD) model. Predictive power of this approach is shown for experimentally known Lv and Og isotopes and predictions given for Z = 119, 120. Ground state and saddle point properties as masses, shell corrections, pairing energies, and deformations necessary for cross-section estimations are calculated systematically within the multidimensional microscopic-macroscopic method based on the deformed Woods-Saxon single-particle potential. In the frame of the FBD approach predictions for production of elements heavier than Z = 118 are not too optimistic. For this reason, and because of high instability of superheavy nuclei, we comment on some structure effects, connected with the K-isomerism phenomenon which could lead to a significant increase in the stability of these systems.

Probable mode prediction for H.264 advanced video coding P slices using removable SKIP mode distortion estimation

Science.gov (United States)

You, Jongmin; Jeong, Jechang

2010-02-01

The H.264/AVC (advanced video coding) is used in a wide variety of applications including digital broadcasting and mobile applications, because of its high compression efficiency. The variable block mode scheme in H.264/AVC contributes much to its high compression efficiency but causes a selection problem. In general, rate-distortion optimization (RDO) is the optimal mode selection strategy, but it is computationally intensive. For this reason, the H.264/AVC encoder requires a fast mode selection algorithm for use in applications that require low-power and real-time processing. A probable mode prediction algorithm for the H.264/AVC encoder is proposed. To reduce the computational complexity of RDO, the proposed method selects probable modes among all allowed block modes using removable SKIP mode distortion estimation. Removable SKIP mode distortion is used to estimate whether or not a further divided block mode is appropriate for a macroblock. It is calculated using a no-motion reference block with a few computations. Then the proposed method reduces complexity by performing the RDO process only for probable modes. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce encoding time by an average of 55.22% without significant visual quality degradation and increased bit rate.

Concept of probability in statistical physics

CERN Document Server

Guttmann, Y M

1999-01-01

Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

Explaining regional disparities in traffic mortality by decomposing conditional probabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldstein, Gregory P; Clark, David E; Travis, Lori L; Haskins, Amy E

2011-04-01

In the USA, the mortality rate from traffic injury is higher in rural and in southern regions, for reasons that are not well understood. For 1754 (56%) of the 3142 US counties, we obtained data allowing for separation of the deaths/population rate into deaths/injury, injuries/crash, crashes/exposure and exposure/population, with exposure measured as vehicle miles travelled. A 'decomposition method' proposed by Li and Baker was extended to study how the contributions of these components were affected by three measures of rural location, as well as southern location. The method of Li and Baker extended without difficulty to include non-binary effects and multiple exposures. Deaths/injury was by far the most important determinant in the county-to-county variation in deaths/population, and accounted for the greatest portion of the rural/urban disparity. After controlling for the rural effect, injuries/crash accounted for most of the southern/northern disparity. The increased mortality rate from traffic injury in rural areas can be attributed to the increased probability of death given that a person has been injured, possibly due to challenges faced by emergency medical response systems. In southern areas, there is an increased probability of injury given that a person has crashed, possibly due to differences in vehicle, road, or driving conditions.

Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Lukits

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1 does the principle of maximum entropy (PME give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2 isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.

Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.

1985-01-01

The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs

Probability and statistics with integrated software routines

CERN Document Server

Deep, Ronald

2005-01-01

Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods

Novel loci and pathways significantly associated with longevity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yi; Nie, Chao; Min, Junxia

2016-01-01

Only two genome-wide significant loci associated with longevity have been identified so far, probably because of insufficient sample sizes of centenarians, whose genomes may harbor genetic variants associated with health and longevity. Here we report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of Han ...

Social marketing campaign significantly associated with increases in syphilis testing among gay and bisexual men in San Francisco.

Science.gov (United States)

Montoya, Jorge A; Kent, Charlotte K; Rotblatt, Harlan; McCright, Jacque; Kerndt, Peter R; Klausner, Jeffrey D

2005-07-01

Between 1999 and 2002, San Francisco experienced a sharp increase in early syphilis among gay and bisexual men. In response, the San Francisco Department of Public Health launched a social marketing campaign to increase testing for syphilis, and awareness and knowledge about syphilis among gay and bisexual men. A convenience sample of 244 gay and bisexual men (18-60 years of age) were surveyed to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign. Respondents were interviewed to elicit unaided and aided awareness about the campaign, knowledge about syphilis, recent sexual behaviors, and syphilis testing behavior. After controlling for other potential confounders, unaided campaign awareness was a significant correlate of having a syphilis test in the last 6 months (odds ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-7.97) compared with no awareness of the campaign. A comparison of respondents aware of the campaign with those not aware also revealed significant increases in awareness and knowledge about syphilis. The Healthy Penis 2002 campaign achieved its primary objective of increasing syphilis testing, and awareness and knowledge about syphilis among gay and bisexual men in San Francisco.

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism

Random phenomena fundamentals of probability and statistics for engineers

CERN Document Server

Ogunnaike, Babatunde A

2009-01-01

PreludeApproach PhilosophyFour Basic PrinciplesI FoundationsTwo Motivating ExamplesYield Improvement in a Chemical ProcessQuality Assurance in a Glass Sheet Manufacturing ProcessOutline of a Systematic ApproachRandom Phenomena, Variability, and UncertaintyTwo Extreme Idealizations of Natural PhenomenaRandom Mass PhenomenaIntroducing ProbabilityThe Probabilistic FrameworkII ProbabilityFundamentals of Probability TheoryBuilding BlocksOperationsProbabilityConditional ProbabilityIndependenceRandom Variables and DistributionsDistributionsMathematical ExpectationCharacterizing DistributionsSpecial Derived Probability FunctionsMultidimensional Random VariablesDistributions of Several Random VariablesDistributional Characteristics of Jointly Distributed Random VariablesRandom Variable TransformationsSingle Variable TransformationsBivariate TransformationsGeneral Multivariate TransformationsApplication Case Studies I: ProbabilityMendel and HeredityWorld War II Warship Tactical Response Under AttackIII DistributionsIde...

Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu Yuhua

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.

Probability elements of the mathematical theory

CERN Document Server

Heathcote, C R

2000-01-01

Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

Science.gov (United States)

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

On the Hitting Probability of Max-Stable Processes

OpenAIRE

Hofmann, Martin

2012-01-01

The probability that a max-stable process {\\eta} in C[0, 1] with identical marginal distribution function F hits x \\in R with 0 < F (x) < 1 is the hitting probability of x. We show that the hitting probability is always positive, unless the components of {\\eta} are completely dependent. Moreover, we consider the event that the paths of standard MSP hit some x \\in R twice and we give a sufficient condition for a positive probability of this event.

Risk estimation using probability machines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Fixation Probability in a Haploid-Diploid Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Bessho, Kazuhiro; Otto, Sarah P

2017-01-01

Classical population genetic theory generally assumes either a fully haploid or fully diploid life cycle. However, many organisms exhibit more complex life cycles, with both free-living haploid and diploid stages. Here we ask what the probability of fixation is for selected alleles in organisms with haploid-diploid life cycles. We develop a genetic model that considers the population dynamics using both the Moran model and Wright-Fisher model. Applying a branching process approximation, we obtain an accurate fixation probability assuming that the population is large and the net effect of the mutation is beneficial. We also find the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability, which is accurate even in small populations and for deleterious alleles, as long as selection is weak. These fixation probabilities from branching process and diffusion approximations are similar when selection is weak for beneficial mutations that are not fully recessive. In many cases, particularly when one phase predominates, the fixation probability differs substantially for haploid-diploid organisms compared to either fully haploid or diploid species. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Stuart G

2013-11-10

Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Daniel

This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

Evaluating probability measures related to subsurface flow and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cawlfield, J.D.

1991-01-01

Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses. The work presented in this paper addresses three issues: comparison of common probabilistic modeling techniques, recent results regarding the sensitivity of probability measures to likely changes in the uncertain variables for transport in porous media, and a discussion of some questions regarding fundamental modeling philosophy within a probabilistic framework. Recent results indicate that uncertainty regarding average flow velocity controls the probabilistic outcome, while uncertainty in the dispersivity and diffusion coefficient does not seem very important. Uncertainty of reaction terms is important only at early times in the transport process. Questions are posed regarding (1) the inclusion of macrodispersion in a probabilistic analysis, (2) statistics of flow velocity and (3) the notion of an ultimate probability measure for subsurface flow analyses

Chance, determinism and the classical theory of probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasudevan, Anubav

2018-02-01

This paper situates the metaphysical antinomy between chance and determinism in the historical context of some of the earliest developments in the mathematical theory of probability. Since Hacking's seminal work on the subject, it has been a widely held view that the classical theorists of probability were guilty of an unwitting equivocation between a subjective, or epistemic, interpretation of probability, on the one hand, and an objective, or statistical, interpretation, on the other. While there is some truth to this account, I argue that the tension at the heart of the classical theory of probability is not best understood in terms of the duality between subjective and objective interpretations of probability. Rather, the apparent paradox of chance and determinism, when viewed through the lens of the classical theory of probability, manifests itself in a much deeper ambivalence on the part of the classical probabilists as to the rational commensurability of causal and probabilistic reasoning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Jennie H; Reske, Kimberly A; Hink, Tiffany; Burnham, C A; Dubberke, Erik R

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

How did Fukushima-Dai-ichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escobar Rangel, Lina; Leveque, Francois

2012-10-01

How to predict the probability of a nuclear accident using past observations? What increase in probability the Fukushima Dai-ichi event does entail? Many models and approaches can be used to answer these questions. Poisson regression as well as Bayesian updating are good candidates. However, they fail to address these issues properly because the independence assumption in which they are based on is violated. We propose a Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA) based in a state-space time series approach to overcome this critical drawback. We find an increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident for the next year in the world by a factor of ten owing to the new major accident that took place in Japan in 2011. (authors)

Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

CERN Document Server

Allen, Arnold O

1990-01-01

This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Olofsson, Peter

2011-01-01

A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d