Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

2014-08-01

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

PA positioning significantly reduces testicular dose during sacroiliac joint radiography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mekis, Nejc [Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ljubljana (Slovenia); Mc Entee, Mark F., E-mail: mark.mcentee@ucd.i [School of Medicine and Medical Science, University College Dublin 4 (Ireland); Stegnar, Peter [Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

2010-11-15

Radiation dose to the testes in the antero-posterior (AP) and postero-anterior (PA) projection of the sacroiliac joint (SIJ) was measured with and without a scrotal shield. Entrance surface dose, the dose received by the testicles and the dose area product (DAP) was used. DAP measurements revealed the dose received by the phantom in the PA position is 12.6% lower than the AP (p {<=} 0.009) with no statistically significant reduction in image quality (p {<=} 0.483). The dose received by the testes in the PA projection in SIJ imaging is 93.1% lower than the AP projection when not using protection (p {<=} 0.020) and 94.9% lower with protection (p {<=} 0.019). The dose received by the testicles was not changed by the use of a scrotal shield in the AP position (p {<=} 0.559); but was lowered by its use in the PA (p {<=} 0.058). Use of the PA projection in SIJ imaging significantly lowers, the dose received by the testes compared to the AP projection without significant loss of image quality.

The Health Significance of Positive Emotions in Adulthood and Later Life.

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Ong, Anthony D; Mroczek, Daniel K; Riffin, Catherine

2011-08-01

A growing body of literature supports a link between positive emotions and health in older adults. In this article, we review evidence of the effects of positive emotions on downstream biological processes and meaningful clinical endpoints, such as adult morbidity and mortality. We then present relevant predictions from lifespan theories that suggest changes in cognition and motivation may play an important role in explaining how positive emotions are well maintained in old age, despite pervasive declines in cognitive processes. We conclude by discussing how the application of psychological theory can inform greater understanding of the adaptive significance of positive emotions in adulthood and later life.

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

2015-01-01

Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

Administrative trends in U.S. dental schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Martin M; Rodriguez, Angel; Chen, Rebecca Y; Fu, Earl; Liao, Shu-Yi; Karimbux, Nadeem Y

2014-11-01

The aims of this study were to analyze the administrative trends in U.S. dental schools at the beginning and end of a thirteen-year period and to identify the predictive factors for those changes. Administrative trends were measured by the difference in the number of major administrative positions for 1997 and 2010 reported in American Dental Education Association (ADEA) and American Dental Association (ADA) publications. Secondary measures (program length, student enrollment, and tuition) were also gathered. The mean numbers of administrative positions per school significantly increased over the study period, while the mean number of clinical science departments per school significantly decreased. The change in the number of directors was positively correlated with the change in student enrollment, but inversely correlated with the change in number of vice/associate/assistant deans. The change in the number of clinical science departments was positively correlated with changes in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but inversely correlated with the change in in-state tuition. The number of all departments per U.S. dental school significantly decreased in this period. The schools that had consolidation of clinical science departments were less likely to have increases in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but more likely to have increases in in-state tuition.

PA positioning significantly reduces testicular dose during sacroiliac joint radiography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mekis, Nejc; Mc Entee, Mark F.; Stegnar, Peter

2010-01-01

Radiation dose to the testes in the antero-posterior (AP) and postero-anterior (PA) projection of the sacroiliac joint (SIJ) was measured with and without a scrotal shield. Entrance surface dose, the dose received by the testicles and the dose area product (DAP) was used. DAP measurements revealed the dose received by the phantom in the PA position is 12.6% lower than the AP (p ≤ 0.009) with no statistically significant reduction in image quality (p ≤ 0.483). The dose received by the testes in the PA projection in SIJ imaging is 93.1% lower than the AP projection when not using protection (p ≤ 0.020) and 94.9% lower with protection (p ≤ 0.019). The dose received by the testicles was not changed by the use of a scrotal shield in the AP position (p ≤ 0.559); but was lowered by its use in the PA (p ≤ 0.058). Use of the PA projection in SIJ imaging significantly lowers, the dose received by the testes compared to the AP projection without significant loss of image quality.

Trends of the global radiation and sunshine hours in 1961-1998 and their relationships in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Rensheng; Kang Ersi; Ji Xibin; Yang Jianping; Zhang Zhihui

2006-01-01

Trends of the yearly global radiation E g , annual sunshine hours S, yearly precipitation P and yearly averaged air temperature T at 51 stations in 1961-1998 in China were detected, and the significance test method was the F-test. A total of 47 stations showed decreasing trend in the E g series of which 35 passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. At 42 stations, the trend of S was also decreasing, and 36 of them passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. The P series did not change largely in 1961-1998 and at 37 stations showed a positive trend, while the positive trend or reduced trend at 39 stations did not pass the F-test at the 25% significant level. The positive trend of the T series was shown at 49 stations, of which 29 passed the F-test at the 1% significant level. In the yearly scale, the empirical relationship between E g and S at any station was very low because the length of the E g series was too short. When using all the data at the used 51 stations together to simulate E g , the results were good. Using the longitude λ, latitude φ and altitude H, or/and P and T, of the used stations to adjust the parameters a and b of the Angstroem model, respectively, or just to adjust the parameter a, the results will be better. The parameter b of the Angstroem model was little affected by the geographical position of the used stations. At last, a simple equation is recommended to use for simulation of the yearly global radiation in China

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

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Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

2018-03-01

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Vigouroux

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH₄, C₂H₆, N₂O, CHClF₂, and O₃ have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

2015-05-01

Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Twelve-year analysis of microbial keratitis trends at a UK tertiary hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, S Z; Walkden, A; Au, L; Fullwood, C; Hamilton, A; Qamruddin, A; Armstrong, M; Brahma, A K; Carley, F

2017-08-01

PurposeTo investigate the frequencies, trends, and in vitro drug susceptibilities of the causative pathogens in microbial keratitis in Manchester Royal Eye Hospital.Patients and methodsCorneal scrape results recorded by the microbiology service between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from an established database. A total of 4229 corneal scrape specimens were identified from an established database. First-line antibiotic treatment in our centre during the study period was ofloxacin and second line was cefuroxime and gentamicin.ResultsMean age was 45.9±21.0. A total of 1379 samples (32.6%) were culture positive. One hundred forty-eight (10.7%) specimens cultured multiple organisms. Of the 1539 organisms identified, 63.3% were Gram-positive bacteria, 27.3% Gram-negative bacteria, 7.1% fungi, and 2.3% Acanthamoebae. A decreasing trend in Gram-positive isolates was found together with a stable trend in Gram negatives and an increasing trend in Acanthamoeba and fungi. There appeared to be a significant increasing trend of Moraxella infection (P=0.001). In all, 83.1 and 90.8% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates tested were susceptible to ofloxacin, respectively. Cefuroxime covered 86.6% of Gram-positive and 61.4% of Gram-negative isolates, whereas gentamicin covered 88.8 and 96.5% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates, respectively.ConclusionWe found a change in the type of Gram-negative organisms isolated over time, with the Moraxella species on the rise. Reassuringly, no significant increase in resistance was observed in vitro for any of the commonly used antibiotics. Ofloxacin remains a good first-line antibiotic treatment but duo-therapy does have broader coverage and should be considered in non-responsive cases.

National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

Science.gov (United States)

Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

2010-01-01

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somsubhra Chattopadhyay

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Estimates of statistical significance for comparison of individual positions in multiple sequence alignments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadreyev Ruslan I

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Profile-based analysis of multiple sequence alignments (MSA allows for accurate comparison of protein families. Here, we address the problems of detecting statistically confident dissimilarities between (1 MSA position and a set of predicted residue frequencies, and (2 between two MSA positions. These problems are important for (i evaluation and optimization of methods predicting residue occurrence at protein positions; (ii detection of potentially misaligned regions in automatically produced alignments and their further refinement; and (iii detection of sites that determine functional or structural specificity in two related families. Results For problems (1 and (2, we propose analytical estimates of P-value and apply them to the detection of significant positional dissimilarities in various experimental situations. (a We compare structure-based predictions of residue propensities at a protein position to the actual residue frequencies in the MSA of homologs. (b We evaluate our method by the ability to detect erroneous position matches produced by an automatic sequence aligner. (c We compare MSA positions that correspond to residues aligned by automatic structure aligners. (d We compare MSA positions that are aligned by high-quality manual superposition of structures. Detected dissimilarities reveal shortcomings of the automatic methods for residue frequency prediction and alignment construction. For the high-quality structural alignments, the dissimilarities suggest sites of potential functional or structural importance. Conclusion The proposed computational method is of significant potential value for the analysis of protein families.

German 2020 Energy Transition Index. Favourable trend, but no breakthrough; Energiewende-Index Deutschland 2020. Positive Tendenzen, aber noch keine Trendwende

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vahlenkamp, Thomas; Frunzetti, Katharina [McKinsey and Company, Duesseldorf (Germany); Peters, Michael [McKinsey and Company, Berlin (Germany)

2015-03-15

Introduced in autumn 2012 and updated twice a year since, the German 2020 Energy Transition Index (EWI) shows its first signs ever of a favourable trend. At last the indicators have got moving, even though one can hardly speak of a breakthrough yet. In spite of the positive trend, especially in regard to electricity consumption and the rate of newly installed offshore wind power capacity, the envisaged goals are still a long way off. This holds particularly for major indicators such as CO{sub 2} emissions and price levels of household and industrial electricity.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

Macro-indicators of citation impacts of six prolific countries: InCites data and the statistical significance of trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lutz Bornmann

Full Text Available Using the InCites tool of Thomson Reuters, this study compares normalized citation impact values calculated for China, Japan, France, Germany, United States, and the UK throughout the time period from 1981 to 2010. InCites offers a unique opportunity to study the normalized citation impacts of countries using (i a long publication window (1981 to 2010, (ii a differentiation in (broad or more narrow subject areas, and (iii allowing for the use of statistical procedures in order to obtain an insightful investigation of national citation trends across the years. Using four broad categories, our results show significantly increasing trends in citation impact values for France, the UK, and especially Germany across the last thirty years in all areas. The citation impact of papers from China is still at a relatively low level (mostly below the world average, but the country follows an increasing trend line. The USA exhibits a stable pattern of high citation impact values across the years. With small impact differences between the publication years, the US trend is increasing in engineering and technology but decreasing in medical and health sciences as well as in agricultural sciences. Similar to the USA, Japan follows increasing as well as decreasing trends in different subject areas, but the variability across the years is small. In most of the years, papers from Japan perform below or approximately at the world average in each subject area.

A trend analysis of laboratory positive propoxyphene workplace urine drug screens before and after the product recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Price, James

2015-01-01

Propoxyphene was withdrawn from the US market in November 2010. This drug is still tested for in the workplace as part of expanded panel nonregulated testing. A convenience sample of urine specimens (n = 7838) were provided by workers from various industries. The percentage of positive specimens with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for each year of the study. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of the year upon the propoxyphene result. The prevalence of positive propoxyphene tests was much higher before the product's withdrawal from the market. Logistic regression provided evidence of a decreasing linear trend (P < 0.000; β = -0.71). The odds ratio signifies that for every additional year the urine specimens were 0.49 times less likely to be positive for propoxyphene. This favors the determination that the change in propoxyphene positive drug test over the years is not by chance. The conclusion supports no longer performing nonregulated workplace propoxyphene urine drug testing for this population.

Trends in infant bedding use: National Infant Sleep Position study, 1993-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K; Colson, Eve R; Willinger, Marian; Rybin, Denis V; Camperlengo, Lena; Corwin, Michael J

2015-01-01

Use of potentially hazardous bedding, as defined by the American Academy of Pediatrics (eg, pillows, quilts, comforters, loose bedding), is a modifiable risk factor for sudden infant death syndrome and unintentional sleep-related suffocation. The proportion of US infants sleeping with these types of bedding is unknown. To investigate the US prevalence of and trends in bedding use, we analyzed 1993-2010 data from the National Infant Sleep Position study. Infants reported as being usually placed to sleep with blankets, quilts, pillows, and other similar materials under or covering them in the last 2 weeks were classified as bedding users. Logistic regression was used to describe characteristics associated with bedding use. From 1993 to 2010, bedding use declined but remained a widespread practice (moving average of 85.9% in 1993-1995 to 54.7% in 2008-2010). Prevalence was highest for infants of teen-aged mothers (83.5%) and lowest for infants born at term (55.6%). Bedding use was also frequently reported among infants sleeping in adult beds, on their sides, and on a shared surface. The rate of decline in bedding use was markedly less from 2001-2010 compared with 1993-2000. For 2007 to 2010, the strongest predictors (adjusted odds ratio: ≥1.5) of bedding use were young maternal age, non-white race and ethnicity, and not being college educated. Bedding use for infant sleep remains common despite recommendations against this practice. Understanding trends in bedding use is important for tailoring safe sleep interventions. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J. [The University of Sydney, Medical Image Optimisation and Perception Group, Discipline of Medical Radiation Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Lidcombe, NSW (Australia)

2016-10-15

To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J.

2016-01-01

To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

Detection of field significant long-term monotonic trends in spring yields

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ledvinka, O.; Lamačová, Anna

2015-01-01

Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1463-1484 ISSN 1436-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cross-correlation * Groundwater monitoring * Serial correlation * Spring yields * Trend analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.237, year: 2015

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

Science.gov (United States)

Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2005-01-01

-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because

Oxygen-isotope trends and seawater temperature changes across the Late Cambrian Steptoean positive carbon-isotope excursion (SPICE event)

Science.gov (United States)

Elrick, M.; Rieboldt, S.; Saltzman, M.; McKay, R.M.

2011-01-01

The globally recognized Late Cambrian Steptoean positive C-isotope excursion (SPICE) is characterized by a 3???-5??? positive ??13C shift spanning SPICE represents a widespread ocean anoxic event leading to enhanced burial/preservation of organic matter (Corg) and pyrite. We analyzed ??18O values of apatitic inarticulate brachiopods from three Upper Cambrian successions across Laurentia to evaluate paleotemperatures during the SPICE. ??18O values range from ~12.5??? to 16.5???. Estimated seawater temperatures associated with the SPICE are unreasonably warm, suggesting that the brachiopod ??18O values were altered during early diagenesis. Despite this, all three localities show similar trends with respect to the SPICE ??13C curve, suggesting that the brachiopod apatite preserves a record of relative ??18O and temperature changes. The trends include relatively high ??18O values at the onset of the SPICE, decreasing and lowest values during the main event, and an increase in values at the end of the event. The higher ??18O values during the global extinction at the onset of the SPICE suggests seawater cooling and supports earlier hypotheses of upwelling of cool waters onto the shallow shelf. Decreasing and low ??18O values coincident with the rising limb of the SPICE support the hypothesis that seawater warming and associated reduced thermohaline circulation rates contributed to decreased dissolved O2 concentrations, which enhanced the preservation/burial of Corg causing the positive ??13C shift. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah

2013-05-01

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.

Evaluation of significance of positive familial history in prevalence of hypertension in Isfahan

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Tavassoli A

1997-09-01

Full Text Available Hypertension is one of the most important modifiable risk factors of vascular heart disease. Control of hypertension in different age groups has a significant effect upon the control and prevention of vascular heart disease. A familial pattern is observed in the distribution of blood pressure in different societies. Family history of hypertension has a profound effect on the future risk of developing hypertension. The blood pressure of approximately 8150 inhabitants of Isfahan aged above 18 years was measured during 1993-94. Blood pressure measurements were performed according to the standards set by WHO i.e., on two separate occasions, in the sitting position, and from both arms. A questionnaire was completed consisting of 26 questions, including questions regarding history of hypertension in first and second-degree relatives. Cases with a blood pressure of 140/90 mmHg or more, were referred to the Cardiovascular Research Center of Isfahan for further evaluation. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure was higher in cases with a positive family history of hypertension. In this study, 37.4% of the men with hypertension and 45.4% of hypertensive women had positive history of hypertension in first-degree relatives. The association between positive family history and hypertension was not significant in men (P=0.62, but it was significant in women (P=0.000. This difference was less pronounced in the older age groups, which could be explained by the illiteracy of most of the older cases and their ignorance of the existence of hypertension in family members. After correcting for the effects of confounding factors, it appears that positive family history has a stronger association with the development of hypertension in women. Moreover, positive family history is a strong prognostic factor in the likelihood of hypertension in the children of affected cases. These findings emphasize the importance of routine blood pressure measurement in children and

Prevalence of Obesity Among Inuit in Greenland and Temporal Trend by Social Position

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to analyze the temporal trend of obesity among Inuit in Greenland during 1993-2010 according to sex and relative social position. METHODS: Data (N = 5,123) were collected in cross-sectional health surveys among the Inuit in Greenland in 1993-1994, 1999......-2001, and 2005-2010. Sociodemographic information was obtained by interview. Information on obesity (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference) was obtained by clinical examination and in 1993-1994 by interview. Statistics included multiple linear regression and Univariate General Linear Models. RESULTS......: Among men the prevalence of overweight (BMI 25-29.9) decreased while general obesity (BMI ≥ 30) did not change. Central obesity increased from 16.0% in 1993-1994 to 25.4% in 2005-2010 (P obesity increased. Central obesity increased from 31.3% in 1993-1994 to 54...

Assessing the gap in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology: trends over a 20-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

McKenzie, Kristopher; Ramonas, Milita; Patlas, Michael; Katz, Douglas S

2017-12-01

To examine trends in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology from January 1994 to December 2014. We obtained institutional review board approval for our study. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 1617 articles published in the journal Emergency Radiology over a 20-year period. Original articles, case reports, review articles, and pictorial essays were included. The first and last position author's gender was categorized as female or male. We analyzed trends by comparing the first and last position authors of original articles from the first and last year reviewed. We utilized Chi-square test for statistical analysis, with a p value gender of 96% of the authors. Overall, female authors were 21% of first position authors (290 of 1368) and 15% of last position authors (183 of 1246). Thirty-two percent of articles with female last position authors also had female first position authors (58 of 183). There was a statistically significant increase in female last position authors, from 12.9% in 1994 to 21.3% in 2014 (p = 0.026), a non-significant increase in female first position authors, from 17.5% in 1994 to 20.9% in 2014 (p = 0.514), and a non-significant increase in articles with both a first and last female author, from 25% in 1994 to 35% in 2014 (p = 0.593). Over the last 20 years, there has been a statistically significant upward trend in female last position authors publishing in the journal Emergency Radiology.

Wage Sorting Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

Trends in Infant Bedding Use: National Infant Sleep Position Study, 1993–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Colson, Eve R.; Willinger, Marian; Rybin, Denis V.; Camperlengo, Lena; Corwin, Michael J.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Use of potentially hazardous bedding, as defined by the American Academy of Pediatrics (eg, pillows, quilts, comforters, loose bedding), is a modifiable risk factor for sudden infant death syndrome and unintentional sleep-related suffocation. The proportion of US infants sleeping with these types of bedding is unknown. METHODS: To investigate the US prevalence of and trends in bedding use, we analyzed 1993–2010 data from the National Infant Sleep Position study. Infants reported as being usually placed to sleep with blankets, quilts, pillows, and other similar materials under or covering them in the last 2 weeks were classified as bedding users. Logistic regression was used to describe characteristics associated with bedding use. RESULTS: From 1993 to 2010, bedding use declined but remained a widespread practice (moving average of 85.9% in 1993–1995 to 54.7% in 2008–2010). Prevalence was highest for infants of teen-aged mothers (83.5%) and lowest for infants born at term (55.6%). Bedding use was also frequently reported among infants sleeping in adult beds, on their sides, and on a shared surface. The rate of decline in bedding use was markedly less from 2001–2010 compared with 1993–2000. For 2007 to 2010, the strongest predictors (adjusted odds ratio: ≥1.5) of bedding use were young maternal age, non-white race and ethnicity, and not being college educated. CONCLUSIONS: Bedding use for infant sleep remains common despite recommendations against this practice. Understanding trends in bedding use is important for tailoring safe sleep interventions. PMID:25452654

Are trends in total electron content (TEC) really positive?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan

2013-01-01

Roč. 118, č. 6 (2013), s. 3831-3835 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Long-term trends * total electron content Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.440, year: 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50261/abstract

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

OpenAIRE

Y. Wang; P. Konopka; Y. Liu; H. Chen; R. Müller; F. Plöger; M. Riese; Z. Cai; D. Lü

2012-01-01

Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photoche...

Trends in Mobile Application Development

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, Adrian; Ondrus, Jan

Major software companies, such as Apple and Google, are disturbing the relatively safe and established actors of the mobile application business. These newcomers have caused significant structural changes by imposing and enforcing their own rules for the future of mobile application development. The implications of these changes do not only concern the mobile network operators and mobile phone manufacturers. This changed environment also brings additional opportunities and constraints for current mobile application developers. Therefore, developers need to assess what their options are and how they can take advantages of these current trends. In this paper, we take a developer’s perspective in order to explore how the structural changes will influence the mobile application development markets. Moreover, we discuss what aspects developers need to take into account in order to position themselves within the current trends.

Trend of Legionella colonization in hospital water supply.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Alessandro, D; Fabiani, M; Cerquetani, F; Orsi, G B

2015-01-01

In many nosocomial Legionella outbreaks water distribution systems are the most frequent source of infection. Considering the hospital waterline old age, an investigation on colonization by Legionella spp was carried out in order to evaluate the pipeline system weaknesses and to implement environmental preventive measures. From 2004 to 2010, overall 97 samples from the water line were collected. The samples were analyzed according to the italian Legionella spp standard methods; water temperature, pH and residual free chlorine were determined at the time of collection. X2 test, exact-test and t-test were used to compare proportions and means. Overall 28 samples (23.7%) were positive for Legionella spp, and five of them (17.9%) exceeded the threshold level >104 cfu/L. The number of positive samples varied along the years, showing a significant increasing trend (X2 for trend = 11.5; pLegionella spp by comparison to negative ones showed a lower free chlorine concentration (0.08 mg/L vs 0.15 mg/L) and a higher water temperature (46.1° vs 42.7°). Actually the percentage of positive samples decreased significantly with the increasing in free chlorine in the water (X2 for trend = 8.53; pLegionella. All hospital buildings were colonized by Legionella spp, although 80% of samples >104 cfu/L occurred in the C-building. No cases of nosocomial legionellosis were reported during the study period. Hospital water system showed a diffuse colonization by Legionella spp, although the degree of contamination reached the threshold level (>104 cfu/L) only in a small percentage of samples, showing a substantial effectiveness of the control measures applied.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Strode

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER

2004-01-01

The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

2017-03-01

In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water in the Northeast United States

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, M.J.

2007-01-01

Public water systems in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island sampled treated drinking water from 1993-2006 and analyzed the samples for MTBE. The US Geological Survey examined trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water derived from ground water in these States for two near-decadal time steps; 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. MTBE was detected in 14% of drinking water samples collected in all States from 1993-1999 and in 19% of drinking water samples collected from the same systems from 2000-2006 and this difference was statistically significant. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in each State by individual year indicated significant positive trends in Maryland and New Hampshire. Significant, increasing trends in MTBE concentrations were observed in Maryland and Rhode Island by individual year. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 2007 Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water: Prevention, Assessment and Remediation Conference (Houston, TX 11/5-6/2007).

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Trends of Bacterial Keratitis Culture Isolates in Jerusalem; a 13- Years Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Politis

Full Text Available To describe the trends in pathogens and antibacterial resistance of corneal culture isolates in infectious keratitis during a period of 13 years at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.A Retrospective analysis of bacterial corneal isolates was performed during the months of January 2002 to December 2014 at Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center. Demographics, microbiological data and antibiotic resistance and sensitivity were collected.A total of 943 corneal isolates were analyzed during a 13 year period. A total of 415 positive bacterial cultures and 37 positive fungal cultures were recovered, representing 48% of the total cultures. The Annual incidence was 34.78 ± 6.54 cases. The most common isolate was coagulase-negative staphylococcus (32%, which had a significant decrease in trend throughout the study period (APC = -8.1, p = 0.002. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA appears to have a decrease trend (APC = -31.2, P = 0.5. There was an increase in the resistance trend of coagulase-negative staphylococci to penicillin (APC = 5.0, P = <0.001. None of the pathogens had developed any resistance to Vancomycin. (P = 0.88.Coagulase negative staphylococci were the predominant bacteria isolated from patients with keratitis. There was no significant change in the annual incidence of cases of bacterial keratitis seen over the past 13 years. Keratitis caused by MRSA appeared to decrease in contrast to the reported literature.

Temporal and spatial trends for trace metals in streams and rivers across Sweden (1996–2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Fölster

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Long term data series (1996 through 2009 for trace metals were analyzed from a large number of streams and rivers across Sweden varying in tributary watershed size from 0.05 to 48 193 km2. The final data set included 139 stream sites with data for arsenic (As, cobalt (Co, copper (Cu, chromium (Cr, nickel (Ni, lead (Pb, zinc (Zn, and vanadium (V. Between 7 % and 46 % of the sites analyzed showed significant trends according to the seasonal Kendall test. However, in contrast to previous studies and depositional patterns, a substantial portion of the trends were positive, especially for V (100 %, As (95 %, and Pb (68 %. Other metals (Zn and Cr generally decreased, were mixed (Ni and Zn, or had very few trends (Co over the study period. Trends by region were also analyzed and some showed significant variation between the north and south of Sweden. Regional trends for both Cu and Pb were positive (60 % and 93 %, respectively in the southern region but strongly negative (93 % and 75 %, respectively in the northern region. Kendall's τ coefficients were used to determine dependence between metals and potential in-stream drivers including total organic carbon (TOC, iron (Fe, pH, and sulphate (SO42−. TOC and Fe correlated positively and strongly with As, V, Pb, and Co while pH and SO42− generally correlated weakly, or not at all with the metals studied.

Trends in space activities in 2014: The significance of the space activities of governments

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Paikowsky, Deganit; Baram, Gil; Ben-Israel, Isaac

2016-01-01

This article addresses the principal events of 2014 in the field of space activities, and extrapolates from them the primary trends that can be identified in governmental space activities. In 2014, global space activities centered on two vectors. The first was geopolitical, and the second relates to the matrix between increasing commercial space activities and traditional governmental space activities. In light of these two vectors, the article outlines and analyzes trends of space exploration, human spaceflights, industry and technology, cooperation versus self-reliance, and space security and sustainability. It also reviews the space activities of the leading space-faring nations.

Green investment: Trends and determinants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyraud, Luc; Clements, Benedict; Wane, Abdoul

2013-01-01

This paper fills a gap in the macroeconomic literature on renewable sources of energy. It offers a definition of green investment and analyzes the trends and determinants of this investment over the last decade for 35 advanced and emerging countries. We use a new multi-country historical dataset and find that green investment has become a key driver of the energy sector and that its rapid growth is now mostly driven by China. Our econometric results suggest that green investment is boosted by economic growth, a sound financial system conducive to low interest rates, and high fuel prices. We also find that some policy interventions, such as the introduction of carbon pricing schemes or “feed-in-tariffs,” which require use of “green” energy, have a positive and significant impact on green investment. Other interventions, such as biofuel support, do not appear to be associated with higher green investment. - Highlights: • We offer a definition of green investment and review its trend since 2000. • We analyze its determinants from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. • Green investment is boosted by economic growth, interest rates, and fuel prices. • Feed-in-tariffs and carbon pricing schemes impact positively green investment

Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Paap (Richard)

1997-01-01

textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

Significant difference in p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity in HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennig, E.M.; Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo; Kvinnsland, S.; Holm, R.; Nesland, J.M.

1999-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 has previously been found in 19/41 breast carcinomas (46%) in women with a history of HPV 16 positive CIN III lesions. There was no significant difference in distribution of histological subtypes, mean or median tumour diameter or number of regional lymph node metastases in the HPV positive and HPV negative breast carcinoma groups. P53, p21 and c-erbB-2 proteins were analyzed by immunohistochemistry in the HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas. There was a significant difference in p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity between HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas (p=0.0091 and p=0.0040), with a significant less detectable p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity in the HPV 16 positive cases. There was also a significant difference in the coexpression of p53/p21 between the HPV 16 positive and HPV 16 negative breast carcinomas (p=0.002). No significant difference in immunostaining for c-erbB-2 protein in the two groups was found (p=0.15), or for the coexpression of p53/c-erbB-2 (p=0.19). The significantly lower expression of p53 and p21 proteins in HPV 16 positive than in HPV 16 negative breast carcinomas supports the hypothesis of inactivation and degradation of wild-type p53 proteins by HPV 16 E6 and that p53 mutation is not necessary for transformation in the HPV 16 positive cases. (orig.)

Prognostic Significance of Progesterone Receptor–Positive Tumor Cells Within Immunohistochemically Defined Luminal A Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Prat, Aleix; Cheang, Maggie Chon U.; Martín, Miguel; Parker, Joel S.; Carrasco, Eva; Caballero, Rosalía; Tyldesley, Scott; Gelmon, Karen; Bernard, Philip S.; Nielsen, Torsten O.; Perou, Charles M.

2013-01-01

Purpose Current immunohistochemical (IHC)-based definitions of luminal A and B breast cancers are imperfect when compared with multigene expression-based assays. In this study, we sought to improve the IHC subtyping by examining the pathologic and gene expression characteristics of genomically defined luminal A and B subtypes. Patients and Methods Gene expression and pathologic features were collected from primary tumors across five independent cohorts: British Columbia Cancer Agency (BCCA) tamoxifen-treated only, Grupo Español de Investigación en Cáncer de Mama 9906 trial, BCCA no systemic treatment cohort, PAM50 microarray training data set, and a combined publicly available microarray data set. Optimal cutoffs of percentage of progesterone receptor (PR) –positive tumor cells to predict survival were derived and independently tested. Multivariable Cox models were used to test the prognostic significance. Results Clinicopathologic comparisons among luminal A and B subtypes consistently identified higher rates of PR positivity, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negativity, and histologic grade 1 in luminal A tumors. Quantitative PR gene and protein expression were also found to be significantly higher in luminal A tumors. An empiric cutoff of more than 20% of PR-positive tumor cells was statistically chosen and proved significant for predicting survival differences within IHC-defined luminal A tumors independently of endocrine therapy administration. Finally, no additional prognostic value within hormonal receptor (HR) –positive/HER2-negative disease was observed with the use of the IHC4 score when intrinsic IHC-based subtypes were used that included the more than 20% PR-positive tumor cells and vice versa. Conclusion Semiquantitative IHC expression of PR adds prognostic value within the current IHC-based luminal A definition by improving the identification of good outcome breast cancers. The new proposed IHC-based definition of luminal A

The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene.

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Douglass, Chester W.

1991-01-01

Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

Trends in workforce diversity in vascular surgery programs in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Katherine; Rosero, Eric B; Clagett, G Patrick; Adams-Huet, Beverley; Timaran, Carlos H

2009-06-01

U.S. black and Hispanic populations are growing at a steady pace. In contrast, the medical profession lacks the same minority growth and representation. Women are also under-represented in many surgical disciplines. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in the proportion of women, blacks, and Hispanics admitted to vascular surgery (VS) and related specialties, and to compare them with each other and with a surgical specialty, orthopedic surgery (OS), with a formal diversity initiative. Data on the fellowship pool of VS, interventional radiology (IR), and interventional cardiology (IC), as well as the resident pools of general surgery (GS) and orthopedic surgery (OS), were obtained from U.S. graduate medical education reports for 1999 through 2005. Cochrane-Armitage trend tests were used to assess trends in the proportion of females, blacks, and Hispanics in relation to the total physician workforce for each subspecialty. No significant trends in the proportion of females, blacks, or Hispanics accepted into VS and IC fellowship programs occurred during the study period. In contrast, IR, GS, and OS programs revealed significant trends for increasing proportions of at least one of the underrepresented study groups. In particular, OS, which has implemented a diversity awareness program, showed a positive trend in female and Hispanic trainees (P workforce diversity.

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃ during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.

2010-07-01

In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

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A. V. Mikhailov

2003-03-01

Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

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Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

2014-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

Water vapour trends at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, L.; Mattar, C.; Da-Silva, L.; Abarca, R.

2009-01-01

In this paper water vapour trends were analyzed at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003. It was carried out using in situ values retrieved by 15 radiosonde stations and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis data (NNR). NNR and radiosonde water vapour data were linked to Koeppen-Geiger climatic zones to calculate anomalies, trends, and the non-parametric statistical significance for each mandatory level. A methodology used to process radiosonde data is shown. Water vapour trends in tropical climates presented positive decadal trends. This is statistically significant for the first mandatory levels retrieved by radiosonde. The highest values are presented in average with NNR; the decadal magnitude for climate Af being 0.15 g kg -1 for 1000 and 925 h Pa, and for climate As 0.27 g kg -1 for 925 and 850 h Pa. For non-tropical climates the magnitude trends of specific humidity are affected by the spatial resolution of NNR, which is seen when comparing the results received by the radiosondes. Finally, this paper shows the initial results of water vapour content trends in the last three decades over South America. Strong climatic events and synoptic oscillations were not commented upon.

Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

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Jyoteshwar R. Nagol

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Significant association between renal function and amyloid-positive area in renal biopsy specimens in AL amyloidosis

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Kuroda Takeshi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The kidney is a major target organ for systemic amyloidosis that often affects the kidney including proteinura, and elevated serum creatinine (Cr. The correlation between amount of amyloid deposits and clinical parameters is not known. The aim of this study was to clarify correlation the amyloid area in all renal biopsy specimen and clinical parameters. Methods Fifty-eight patients with an established diagnosis of AL amyloidosis participated in the study. All patients showed amyloid deposits in renal biopsies. We retrospectively investigated the correlation between clinical data and amyloid occupied area in whole renal biopsy specimens. Results The area occupied by amyloid was less than 10% in 57 of the 58 patients, and was under 2% in 40. For statistical analyses, %amyloid-positive areas were transformed to common logarithmic values (Log10%amyloid. Cr showed significant correlation with Log10%amyloid and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR showed the significant negative correlation. Patient age, cleatinine clearance (Ccr, blood urea nitorogen, and urinary protein was not significantly correlated with Log10%amyloid. The correlation with other clinical factors such as sex, and serum concentrations of total protein, albumin, immunoglobulins, compliments was evaluated. None of these factors significantly correlated with Log10%amyloid. According to sex- and age- adjusted multiple linear regression analysis, Log10%amyloid had significant positive association with Cr and significant negative association with eGFR. Conclusion There is significant association between amyloid-positive area in renal tissue and renal function, especially Cr and eGFR. The level of Cr and eGFR may be a marker of amount of amyloid in renal tissue.

When Teens Have Sex: Issues and Trends. KIDS COUNT Special Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, MD.

In the 1990s, teen pregnancy and birth rates in the United States declined significantly. Researchers cite two main factors: fewer teens are having sex, and among those who are, more are using contraception. Despite these positive trends, there are still about one million pregnancies and about half a million births each year to young women aged 15…

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Corrective action program at the Krsko NPP. Trending and analysis of minor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bach, B.; Kavsek, D.

2007-01-01

understand the factors that might be responsible for such trend and to take corrective actions prior to the escalation to a significant event. Reviewed and analyzed data based on codes trending identified common problems, potential trends and common contributors, promote a good trending program. For the effective trending program, positive adverse trends identification and corrective actions that are addressed the weaknesses that have been identified, should be specified and implemented through the corrective action program. For that purpose the appropriate coding system incorporated into Corrective Action and Operating Experience Program is established at Krsko NPP. Minor events and near misses are collected and analyzed in order to aggregate detected minor problems. The different groups of codes developed include codes for direct causes and casual factors, processes and organizations, consequences, level of significance etc. For easier trending and further analysis a different code combinations were utilized in a form of graphs. For example: organisation vs. causal factors (allows particular department to trend human performance in their own organisation), direct cause vs. time (allows trending of equipment degradation), processes vs. organisation (allows trending 501.2 of processes degradation in particular organisation) any code in question vs. time (for trend confirmation) etc. The purpose of this article is to present the coding system established at the Krsko Nuclear Power Plant and variety of ways for trending by using the system. The article deals with the codes established, organization of code system, trend codes combinations and benefit for early recognizing adverse trends of lo-level events. (author)

Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

2006-01-01

Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

2015-01-01

We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

What Buys Happiness? Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta

Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous ...... growth in the current account balance exerts a positive influence. Relative unemployment growth becomes significant when interacted with a measure of political ideology. The effects of relative GDP growth vary with median ideology.......Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous...

Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

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Amos T. Kabo-Bah

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

Trends in exotic-atom research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambrecht, R.M.; Horvath, D.

1983-01-01

An attempt was made to analyze the trends in the development of exotic-atom research on the basis of a recently compiled bibliography. The analysis of nearly 4000 publications demonstrated that: (1) exotic atoms are nuclear probes used in every field of physics, from the test of quantum electrodynamics (QED) to chemical physics, to materials sciences; (2) the role of nuclear and atomic physics in exotic atom research is decreasing (although it is still significant), while that of materials sciences and chemial physics is exponentially increasing; and (3) prior to 1980 most investigators were mainly interested in atoms with negative muons, while during the last few years the positive muon (μSR) studies have dominated exotic atom research

Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Argerich, A; Greathouse, E; Johnson, S L; Sebestyen, S D; Rhoades, C C; Knoepp, J D; Adams, M B; Likens, G E; Campbell, J L; McDowell, W H; Scatena, F N; Ice, G G

2013-01-01

To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among sites across the USA. We found both increasing and decreasing trends in monthly flow-weighted stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations. At a subset of the catchments, we found that the length and period of analysis influenced whether trends were positive, negative or non-significant. Trends also differed among neighboring catchments within several Experimental Forests, suggesting the importance of catchment-specific factors in determining nutrient exports. Over the longest time periods, trends were more consistent among catchments within sites, although there are fewer long-term records for analysis. These findings highlight the critical value of long-term, uninterrupted stream chemistry monitoring at a network of sites across the USA to elucidate patterns of change in nutrient concentrations at minimally disturbed forested sites. (letter)

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

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Benjamin I. Cook

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

Evaluating the consistency of the 1982-1999 NDVI trends in the Iberian Peninsula across four time-series derived from the AVHRR sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations' carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982-1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast.

Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trend of Performance, Production and Cultivated Area of 17 Field Crops Khorasan Razavi Province

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H. Zareabyaneh

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Any planning for the future requires estimates of future conditions. It is possible to study changes over time series. In this study, changes of production and cultivated area of 17 field crops of Khorasan Razavi province in a 25-year period were determined with Mann - Kendall test, Sen’s Estimator Slope and linear regression. Analysis of the three tests showed that performance of 76.5% from yield, 88.2% from area under cultivation and 55.8% from agricultural production were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level. On the other hand, trend of yields 58.8% was increase, 17.7% was reduced and 23.5% was no significant trend. Similarly, trend of 23.5% from area under cultivation was acreage, 64.7% was reduction, and 11.8% was no significant trend. For production variable, 29.4% was significantly increased and 29.4% was significant reduction. More detailed analysis showed that performance, production and area under cultivation of three crops of cotton, grain and tomatoes increased significantly. Results of all three methods showed the highest trend of negatively performance and area under cultivation variation is related to pea and melon respectively. Furthermore, most of the positive trend in production of tomatoes and grain, performance in onions, potatoes and tomatoes and area under cultivation in tomato observed. The results showed that linear trend and the nonparametric tests of important products of province: wheat, barley, sugar beet, cotton, melons, watermelons and tomatoes in 0.01 were significant. This result shows the importance of these yields in gross state province product.

Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009

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Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio

2018-05-01

Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2014-03-11

Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

Evaluating the Consistency of the 1982–1999 NDVI Trends in the Iberian Peninsula across Four Time-series Derived from the AVHRR Sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II

Science.gov (United States)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations’ carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982–1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast. PMID:22205868

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

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Krishnamurthy V

1996-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

Housing and Urban Development trends in Czech Republic

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Karel Schmeidler

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This article describes housing trends in Czech Republic, which are determined by social, economic, technical and cultural changes of last two decades In Central Europe. Those trends have positive and also negative sides: positive can be seen the quantitative and qualitative growth of housing space, variety of architectural solutions for individualised customer. Negative aspect is urban sprawl, which together with individual automobile occupancy destroys nature, space and land values. Future development is inevitable, proper design of housing needs sensitive multidisciplinal attitude and understanding of the needs of man and nature.

Trends in the Information Industry.

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Hogan, Thomas H.

1987-01-01

The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

The Health Significance of Positive Emotions in Adulthood and Later Life

OpenAIRE

Ong, Anthony D.; Mroczek, Daniel K.; Riffin, Catherine

2011-01-01

A growing body of literature supports a link between positive emotions and health in older adults. In this article, we review evidence of the effects of positive emotions on downstream biological processes and meaningful clinical endpoints, such as adult morbidity and mortality. We then present relevant predictions from lifespan theories that suggest changes in cognition and motivation may play an important role in explaining how positive emotions are well maintained in old age, despite perva...

Extra-nodal extension is a significant prognostic factor in lymph node positive breast cancer.

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Sura Aziz

Full Text Available Presence of lymph node (LN metastasis is a strong prognostic factor in breast cancer, whereas the importance of extra-nodal extension and other nodal tumor features have not yet been fully recognized. Here, we examined microscopic features of lymph node metastases and their prognostic value in a population-based cohort of node positive breast cancer (n = 218, as part of the prospective Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program NBCSP (1996-2009. Sections were reviewed for the largest metastatic tumor diameter (TD-MET, nodal afferent and efferent vascular invasion (AVI and EVI, extra-nodal extension (ENE, number of ENE foci, as well as circumferential (CD-ENE and perpendicular (PD-ENE diameter of extra-nodal growth. Number of positive lymph nodes, EVI, and PD-ENE were significantly increased with larger primary tumor (PT diameter. Univariate survival analysis showed that several features of nodal metastases were associated with disease-free (DFS or breast cancer specific survival (BCSS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated an independent prognostic value of PD-ENE (with 3 mm as cut-off value in predicting DFS and BCSS, along with number of positive nodes and histologic grade of the primary tumor (for DFS: P = 0.01, P = 0.02, P = 0.01, respectively; for BCSS: P = 0.02, P = 0.008, P = 0.02, respectively. To conclude, the extent of ENE by its perpendicular diameter was independently prognostic and should be considered in line with nodal tumor burden in treatment decisions of node positive breast cancer.

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

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Fernanda Karina dos Santos

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. METHODS: 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls, distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012, were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. RESULTS: Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012, and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012. In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys, and normal-weight (in girls; no clear trend was evident for stunting. CONCLUSION: Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

Science.gov (United States)

Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

2015-02-01

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

11-Year Trends in Pregnancy-Related Health Indicators in Maine, 2000–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Harris

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to understand health and demographic trends among mothers and infants in Maine relative to the goals of Healthy People 2020. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system (PRAMS data from Maine for 2000–2010 were used to determine yearly values of pregnancy-related variables. Means (for continuous variables and percentages (for categorical variables were calculated using the survey procedures in SAS. Linear trend analysis was applied with study year as the independent variable. The slope and significance of the trend were then calculated. Over the study period, new mothers in Maine became better educated but the fraction of households with incomes <$20,000/year remained stagnant. Maternal prepregnancy BMI increased. Average pregnancy weight gain decreased but the number of women whose pregnancy weight gain was within the recommended range was unchanged. The rates of smoking and alcohol consumption (before and during pregnancy increased. The Caesarean section rate rose and the fraction of infants born premature (<37 wks gestation or underweight (<2500 gms remained unchanged. The fraction of infants who were breast-fed increased. These results suggest that, despite some positive trends, Maine faces significant challenges in meeting Healthy People 2020 goals.

The long-term trends (1982-2006) in vegetation greenness of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Wang, Cuizhen; Ji, Lei; Li, Jing; Wang, Kun; Dai, Lin

2014-01-01

The increased rate of annual temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exceeded all other areas of the same latitude in recent decades. The influence of the warming climate on the alpine ecosystem of the plateau was distinct. An analysis of alpine vegetation under changes in climatic conditions was conducted in this study. This was done through an examination of vegetation greenness and its relationship with climate variability using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite imagery and climate datasets. Vegetation in the plateau experienced a positive trend in greenness, with 18.0 % of the vegetated areas exhibiting significantly positive trends, which were primarily located in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau. In grasslands, 25.8 % of meadows and 14.1 % of steppes exhibited significant upward trends. In contrast, the broadleaf forests experienced a trend of degradation. Temperature, particularly summer temperature, was the primary factor promoting the vegetation growth in the plateau. The wetter and warmer climate in the east contributed to the favorable conditions for vegetation. The alpine meadow was mostly sensitive to temperature, while the steppes were sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to vegetation growth in the alpine region, the rising temperature coupled with reduced precipitation in the south did not favor vegetation growth due to low humidity and poor soil moisture conditions.

Significant positive relationship between serum magnesium and muscle quality in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Okazaki, Hisanori; Ishimura, Eiji; Okuno, Senji; Norimine, Kyoko; Yamakawa, Kenjiro; Yamakawa, Tomoyuki; Shoji, Shigeichi; Nishizawa, Yoshiki; Inaba, Masaaki

2013-01-01

Serum magnesium (Mg) levels have been associated with muscle performance in the general population. We hypothesized that serum Mg would be associated with muscle quality in hemodialysis patients. A total of 310 patients were examined (age: 58 ± 12 years, hemodialysis duration: 6.4 ± 6.0 years, 60.6% men, and 36.1% diabetics). Arm lean mass was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) on the dominant side. Arm muscle quality was defined as the ratio of the handgrip strength to the arm lean mass of the same side (kg/kg). Serum Mg was 1.15 ± 0.16 mmol/L (2.8 ± 0.4 mg/dL), being higher than the reference range of normal subjects. There was a significant negative correlation between muscle quality and age (r = -0.326, p<0.0001) and duration of hemodialysis (r = -0.253, p<0.0001). The muscle quality of the diabetics was significantly lower than that of the non-diabetics (p<0.001). There was a significant, positive correlation between muscle quality and serum Mg (r = 0.118, p<0.05), but not serum calcium or phosphate. In multiple regression analysis, age, gender, hemodialysis duration, diabetes, and serum Mg (β = 0.129, p<0.05) were significantly and independently associated with muscle quality (R(2) = 0.298, p<0.0001). These results demonstrated that a lower serum Mg concentration was significantly associated with poor muscle quality in hemodialysis patients. Further studies are needed to explore the mechanism by which lower serum Mg affects muscle quality.

Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark

2016-12-01

Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koln (Germany)

2001-07-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H.

2001-01-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of

Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

2014-01-01

Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurst, Brian; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

a century. We analyze trend-following returns through various economic environments and highlight the diversifi cation benefi ts the strategy has historically provided in equity bear markets. Finally, we evaluate the recent environment for the strategy in the context of these long-term results.......We study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1903, extending the existing evidence by more than 80 years. We fi nd that trend-following has delivered strong positive returns and realized a low correlation to traditional asset classes each decade for more than...

Causes of spring vegetation growth trends in the northern mid–high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mao Jiafu; Shi Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E; Piao Shilong; Wang Xuhui

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial–temporal patterns of spring (April–May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid–high latitudes (NMH) (>25°N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI–temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity. (letter)

Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Shi, Xiaoying [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Shilong, Dr. Piao [Peking University; Xuhui, Dr. Wang [Peking University

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O{sub X} (sum O{sub 3} of and NO{sub 2}) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O X (sum O 3 of and NO 2 ) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative trends of ozone

Current economic trends in equine practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Andrew R

2009-12-01

Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

Trends in the dietary patterns and prevalence of obesity among Greenlandic school children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schnohr, C; Pedersen, J M; Alcón, M C G

2004-01-01

. CONCLUSION: Most of the observed trends are positive, with regard to intake of vegetables and sweets and consumption of soft drinks. The fact that a high proportion of schoolchildren consider themselves to be obese must be assumed to have a negative impact on the psychological well-being of this population......OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine the trends in the dietary patterns of selected food items and in the prevalence of self-perceived obesity in a population of Greenlandic schoolchildren. STUDY DESIGN: The study is based on three school surveys among Greenlandic schoolchildren, class 6......,057 and 2,010 pupils, respectively. RESULTS: The intake of vegetables has increased significantly since 1994, and the intake of fruits, sweets and soft drink has decreased significantly at a 5% level. An unchanged high proportion of schoolchildren report to be on a diet or consider themselves obese...

An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.

2001-01-01

We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Trends in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids in public supply wells of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins, San Bernardino County, California: influence of legacy land use.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K

2013-05-01

Concentrations and temporal changes in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin were evaluated to identify trends and factors that may be affecting trends. One hundred, thirty-one public-supply wells were selected for analysis based on the availability of data spanning at least 11 years between the late 1980s and the 2000s. Forty-one of the 131 wells (31%) had a significant (p<0.10) increase in nitrate and 14 wells (11%) had a significant decrease in nitrate. For TDS, 46 wells (35%) had a significant increase and 8 wells (6%) had a significant decrease. Slopes for the observed significant trends ranged from -0.44 to 0.91 mg/L/yr for nitrate (as N) and -8 to 13 mg/L/yr for TDS. Increasing nitrate trends were associated with greater well depth, higher percentage of agricultural land use, and being closer to the distal end of the flow system. Decreasing nitrate trends were associated with the occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); VOC occurrence decreases with increasing depth. The relations of nitrate trends to depth, lateral position, and VOCs imply that increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from historical agricultural land use and that more recent urban land use is generally associated with lower nitrate concentrations and greater VOC occurrence. Increasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater current nitrate concentrations and relatively greater amounts of urban land. Decreasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater amounts of natural land use. Trends in TDS concentrations were not related to depth, lateral position, or VOC occurrence, reflecting more complex factors affecting TDS than nitrate in the study area. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria do Céu Taveira

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls from northern (69.5% and central Portugal (30.5% followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50. Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement

Trends in picture communication

OpenAIRE

Speidel, Joachim

1993-01-01

In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

[False positive results or what's the probability that a significant P-value indicates a true effect?

Science.gov (United States)

Cucherat, Michel; Laporte, Silvy

2017-09-01

The use of statistical test is central in the clinical trial. At the statistical level, obtaining a Pinformation about the plausibility of the existence of treatment effect. With "Pfalse positive is very high. This is the case if the power is low, if there is an inflation of the alpha risk or if the result is exploratory or chance discoveries. This possibility is important to take into consideration when interpreting the results of clinical trials in order to avoid pushing ahead significant results in appearance, but which are likely to be actually false positive results. Copyright © 2017 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Clinical significance of orthostatic dizziness in the diagnosis of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo and orthostatic intolerance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeon, Eun-Ju; Park, Yong-Soo; Park, Shi-Nae; Park, Kyoung-Ho; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Nam, In-Chul; Chang, Ki-Hong

2013-01-01

Orthostatic dizziness (OD) and positional dizziness (PD) are considerably common conditions in dizziness clinic, whereas those two conditions are not clearly separated. We aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of simple OD and OD combined with PD for the diagnosis of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV) and orthostatic intolerance (OI). Patients presenting with OD (n=102) were divided into two groups according to their symptoms: group PO, presenting with PD as well as OD; group O, presenting with OD. A thorough medical history, physical examination, and vestibular function tests were performed to identify the etiology of the dizziness. Orthostatic vital sign measurement (OVSM) was used to diagnose OI. The majority of patients were in group PO (87.3%). BPPV was the most common cause of OD for entire patients (36.3%) and group PO (37.1%), while OI was most common etiology for group O (38.5%). Total of 17 (16.7%) OI patients were identified by OVSM test. Orthostatic hypotension (n=10) was most frequently found, followed by orthostatic hypertension (n=5), and orthostatic tachycardia (n=2). Group O showed significantly higher percentage (38.5%) of OI than group PO (13.5%) (P=0.039). It is suggested that orthostatic testing such as OVSM or head-up tilt table test should be performed as an initial work up for the patients with simple OD. Positional tests for BPPV should be considered as an essential diagnostic test for patients with OD, even though their dizziness is not associated with PD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microporous polyethylene separators — today and tomorrow. Separator development trends for modern automotive batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Böhnstedt, Werner

During the past decade, the design of modern automotive batteries has undergone a fundamental change. The introduction of microporous polyethylene pocket separators has resulted in an approximately 8% better volume utilization. Besides increasing the energy density, the polyethylene envelope has enalbed an improvement in cold-cranking performance and has raised the production efficiency. A first failure-mode analysis of pocket-separated automotive batteries in Europe with respect to leaf separation is presented. For comparable service life, a shift in failure mode has been found. Although corrosion of the positive electrode still dominates, a significant increase in positive active-material shedding is noted. This is certainly a consequence of the general trend towards lower antimony contents. Shorting through the separator is only found in cases of severe battery mistreatment. This positive, intermediary result is supplemented by an outlook on emerging development trends. Future automotive batteries will experience elevated operating temperatures, higher cycling loads, and maintenance freedom. Battery tests at temperatures up to 75 °C with various alloy combinations show that the hybrid design is best suited to meet the expected requirements. Microporous polyethylene pocket separation is not expected to be a limiting factor; the trend to lower antimony alloy content and increased cycling load will demonstrate the advantage of this separation even more clearly than in the past. Optimization of the already achieved, balanced separator characteristics profile with the reference parameters of electrical performance, water loss, durability and machinability will stimulate further development work.

Positive Selection or Free to Vary? Assessing the Functional Significance of Sequence Change Using Molecular Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane R Allison

Full Text Available Evolutionary arms races between pathogens and their hosts may be manifested as selection for rapid evolutionary change of key genes, and are sometimes detectable through sequence-level analyses. In the case of protein-coding genes, such analyses frequently predict that specific codons are under positive selection. However, detecting positive selection can be non-trivial, and false positive predictions are a common concern in such analyses. It is therefore helpful to place such predictions within a structural and functional context. Here, we focus on the p19 protein from tombusviruses. P19 is a homodimer that sequesters siRNAs, thereby preventing the host RNAi machinery from shutting down viral infection. Sequence analysis of the p19 gene is complicated by the fact that it is constrained at the sequence level by overprinting of a viral movement protein gene. Using homology modeling, in silico mutation and molecular dynamics simulations, we assess how non-synonymous changes to two residues involved in forming the dimer interface-one invariant, and one predicted to be under positive selection-impact molecular function. Interestingly, we find that both observed variation and potential variation (where a non-synonymous change to p19 would be synonymous for the overprinted movement protein does not significantly impact protein structure or RNA binding. Consequently, while several methods identify residues at the dimer interface as being under positive selection, MD results suggest they are functionally indistinguishable from a site that is free to vary. Our analyses serve as a caveat to using sequence-level analyses in isolation to detect and assess positive selection, and emphasize the importance of also accounting for how non-synonymous changes impact structure and function.

Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and the Niger Rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, C.; Bodian, A.; Vischel, T.; Panthou, G.; Quantin, G.

2017-12-01

In recent years, West Africa has witnessed several floods of unprecedented magnitude. Although the evolution of hydrological extremes has been evaluated in the region to some extent, results lack regional coverage, significance levels, uncertainty estimations, model selection criteria, or a combination of the above. In this study, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with and without various non-stationary temporal covariates are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) data sets in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. The data ranges from the 1950s to the 2010s. The two models of best fit most often selected (with an alpha=0.05 certainty level) were 1) a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (μ) with stationary dispersion (σ) and 2) a double-linear model for both parameters. Change points are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in μ was generally positive with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location was less consistent. The study clearly demonstrates the significant trends in extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. Moreover, it proposes a clear methodology for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The return levels generated from the chosen models can be applied to river basin management and hydraulic works sizing. The results provide a first evaluation of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological values in West Africa that is accompanied by significance levels, uncertainties, and non-stationary return level estimations .

Training in Spanish organizations: Trends and future perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Jose Rubio Hurtado

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to identify training trends in Spanish organizations.Design/methodology/approach: A survey methodology is conducted and the questionnaire is the strategy to collect information. In order to construct the sample, a previous selection of enterprises was done out of the 50 000 enterprises registered at DICODI (Data base of main Spanish societies 2004/2005. The sampling was done by quotas. The quotas or categories selected were: the enterprises’ activity sector, gender and job position. Findings: The research describes the actual state of training trends and the changes that seem to glimpse out of the considered dimensions: training planning, goals, recipients, modalities, resources, evaluation, training professionals and outsourcing.Research limitations: The study was carried out through a not randomized sample, so the results cannot be generalized.Practical implications: Organizations can make future proposals from the facts exposed in our research. Originality/value: Is the first time in our context that a research of this type is performed, showing significant matches in the results with other studies of international reference.

Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

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Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

2015-09-01

We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

Progranulin as a prognostic biomarker for breast cancer recurrence in patients who had hormone receptor-positive tumors: a cohort study.

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Dong Hoe Koo

Full Text Available Progranulin (PGRN is considered to play an important role in breast cancer tumorigenesis and in inhibiting tamoxifen-induced apoptosis. We aimed to determine whether PGRN levels are associated with breast cancer recurrence after curative surgery.We evaluated the associations between preoperative serum PGRN levels and breast cancer recurrence in a cohort of 697 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients who underwent curative surgery between April 2001 and December 2004. The mean age ± standard deviation (SD was 46 ± 9.8 years, and all patients with hormone receptor (HR-positive tumors received adjuvant tamoxifen therapy. At a median follow-up of 62.2 months (range, 2.9-98.2, 89 patients (12.8% had experienced a recurrence and 51 patients (7.3% had died. In the HR-positive group, serum PGRN levels were associated with recurrence according to the log-rank test for trend (p for trend = 0.049. There was no association between PGRN levels and recurrence in the HR-negative group (p for trend = 0.658. Adjusted hazard ratios, including possible confounders, revealed a linear relationship between serum PGRN levels and recurrence in the HR-positive group (p for trend = 0.049, and this association was further strengthened after excluding patients who had no lymph node metastasis (p for trend = 0.038.Serum PGRN levels were clinically significant for predicting recurrence in patients with HR-positive breast cancer during adjuvant tamoxifen therapy.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

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Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Clinical significance of isolated anti-HBc positivity in cases of chronic liver disease in New Delhi, India

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Manisha Jain

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The presence of anti-HBc IgG in the absence of HBsAg is usually indicative of a past self-limiting HBV infection. But it is frequently associated with co-infection with HCV which can worsen the existing status of chronic liver disease (CLD. Objectives: The present study was planned to evaluate the significance of isolated HBc IgG positivity in patients of CLD and look for the presence of HCV co-infection in such patients. Methods: Clinical profiles and biochemical tests were done for all the 77 CLD cases included in the study. Blood samples were taken from these patients and tested by the commercially available EIA for the presence of HBsAg, anti-HBc IgG, anti-HBs and anti-HCV. HBV DNA was detected by amplifying the surface region in all the cases. Results: Isolated anti-HBc IgG positivity defined as the presence of anti-HBc IgG in absence of any other serological markers of HBV infection was detected in 28 patients . Out of 64 patients positive for anti-HBc IgG 36 had the markers of HBV, either HBsAg, HBV DNA or anti-HBs alone or in combination. There was a significant association between isolated anti-HBc IgG positivity and HCV co-infection. Conclusion: Anti-HBc IgG should be tested in all patients with CLD as it is frequently the only marker of HBV infection in such patients and they should be monitored closely as such patients can develop CLD. Presence of co-infection with HCV should be actively searched for in such patients.

Antibiotic resistance and trend of urinary pathogens in general outpatients from a major urban city

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Carlos R. Kiffer

2007-02-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We assessed the antimicrobial resistance patterns of pathogens responsible for urinary tract infections (UTI in outpatients in São Paulo, Brazil, as well as the Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance trend. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outpatients urine cultures were collected from January 2000 to December 2003. Statistical analysis considered positive results for one bacterial species with colony count > 100,000 CFU/mL. Stratification was done on age group and gender. Statistical tests used included chi-square and the chi-square test for trend to evaluate differences between susceptibility rates among age groups and ordering in the E. coli resistance rates per year, respectively. RESULTS: There were 37,261 positive results with Enterobacteriaceae isolated in 32,530 (87.3% and Gram-positive cocci in 2,570 (6.9% cultures. E. coli had the highest prevalence (71.6%. Susceptibility tests were performed in 31,716 cultures. E. coli had elevated resistance rates (> 30% to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and tetracycline. Significant differences between age groups and ordering among years were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole is precluded in the population studied due to elevated resistance rates (> 30% among most prevalent pathogens. Significant resistance rate differences among age groups and years were observed, particularly for fluoroquinolones. Fluoroquinolones should be used with caution. Nitrofurantoin should be used as empirical therapy for primary, non-complicated urinary tract infections.

1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy)

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Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio

2018-05-01

A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

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Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?

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Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry

2010-06-01

Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

KAUST Repository

Klingmüller, Klaus

2016-04-22

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

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C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Impact of patient position on the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

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Alexiou, Vangelis G; Ierodiakonou, Vrettos; Dimopoulos, George; Falagas, Matthew E

2009-12-01

The aim of this study is to summarize the effect of position (prone and semirecumbent 45 degrees ) of mechanically ventilated patients on the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and other outcomes. A systematic search for randomized control trials (RCTs) was done. We estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using fixed effects model or random effects model, where appropriate. For continuous variables, we calculated the estimation of weighted mean differences. We analyzed data extracted from 3 RCTs studying the semirecumbent 45 degrees and 4 RCTs studying the prone position with a total of 337 and 1018 patients, respectively. The odds of developing clinically diagnosed VAP were significantly lower among patients in the semirecumbent 45 degrees position compared to patients in the supine position (OR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.27-0.82; 337 patients). The comparison of prone vs supine position group showed a moderate trend toward better outcomes regarding the incidence of clinically diagnosed VAP among patients in the prone position (OR = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.60-1.08; 1018 patients). The subanalysis regarding the incidence of microbiologically documented VAP, the length of intensive care unit stay, and the duration of mechanical ventilation showed that patients in the semirecumbent 45 degrees position have a moderate trend toward better clinical outcomes. This meta-analysis provides additional evidence that the usual practice of back-rest elevation of 15 degrees to 30 degrees is not sufficient to prevent VAP in mechanically ventilated patients. Patients positioned semirecumbently 45 degrees have significantly lower incidence of clinically diagnosed VAP compared to patients positioned supinely. On the other hand, the incidence of clinically diagnosed VAP among patients positioned pronely does not differ significantly from the incidence of clinically diagnosed VAP among patients positioned supinely.

New Trends in Facility Asset Management.

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Adams, Matt

2000-01-01

Explains new, positive trends in facility asset management that encompasses greater acceptance and involvement of facility managers in the financial planning process, greater awareness of the need for maintenance, and facility administrators taking a greater role with business officers. The new climate for alternative renewal financing proposals…

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

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Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Activity in ventromedial prefrontal cortex during self-related processing: positive subjective value or personal significance?

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Kim, Kyungmi; Johnson, Marcia K

2015-04-01

Well-being and subjective experience of a coherent world depend on our sense of 'self' and relations between the self and the environment (e.g. people, objects and ideas). The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vMPFC) is involved in self-related processing, and disrupted vMPFC activity is associated with disruptions of emotional/social functioning (e.g. depression and autism). Clarifying precise function(s) of vMPFC in self-related processing is an area of active investigation. In this study, we sought to more specifically characterize the function of vMPFC in self-related processing, focusing on two alternative accounts: (i) assignment of positive subjective value to self-related information and (ii) assignment of personal significance to self-related information. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants imagined owning objects associated with either their perceived ingroup or outgroup. We found that for ingroup-associated objects, vMPFC showed greater activity for objects with increased than decreased post-ownership preference. In contrast, for outgroup-associated objects, vMPFC showed greater activity for objects with decreased than increased post-ownership preference. Our findings support the idea that the function of vMPFC in self-related processing may not be to represent/evaluate the 'positivity' or absolute preference of self-related information but to assign personal significance to it based on its meaning/function for the self. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Significance analysis of lexical bias in microarray data

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Falkow Stanley

2003-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genes that are determined to be significantly differentially regulated in microarray analyses often appear to have functional commonalities, such as being components of the same biochemical pathway. This results in certain words being under- or overrepresented in the list of genes. Distinguishing between biologically meaningful trends and artifacts of annotation and analysis procedures is of the utmost importance, as only true biological trends are of interest for further experimentation. A number of sophisticated methods for identification of significant lexical trends are currently available, but these methods are generally too cumbersome for practical use by most microarray users. Results We have developed a tool, LACK, for calculating the statistical significance of apparent lexical bias in microarray datasets. The frequency of a user-specified list of search terms in a list of genes which are differentially regulated is assessed for statistical significance by comparison to randomly generated datasets. The simplicity of the input files and user interface targets the average microarray user who wishes to have a statistical measure of apparent lexical trends in analyzed datasets without the need for bioinformatics skills. The software is available as Perl source or a Windows executable. Conclusion We have used LACK in our laboratory to generate biological hypotheses based on our microarray data. We demonstrate the program's utility using an example in which we confirm significant upregulation of SPI-2 pathogenicity island of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium by the cation chelator dipyridyl.

Schoolwide Positive Behavior Supports and Students with Significant Disabilities: Where Are We?

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Kurth, Jennifer A.; Enyart, Matt

2016-01-01

Although the number of schools implementing schoolwide positive behavior supports (SWPBS) has increased dramatically, the inclusion of students with severe disabilities in these efforts remains negligible. This article describes the evolution of positive behavior intervention and supports into the SWPBS approach used in many schools today,…

Study of trends in the trucking market in modern conditions

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P.Popovych

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the features of the transport services market in accordance with its segmentation from the position of statistics on the field of automotive freight. The tendencies of development dynamics and road trucking transport market structure, and particularly the impact of transportation logistics market, including foreign trade cargo traffic of road transport, on the basic trends and the impact of logistics infrastructure development for aggregate indicators of development of transport communications, the size and dynamics of development, market compatibility on investment attractiveness. Balance of consumer, wholesale and logistics market in Ukraine, having similar development trends are established. Market logistics of trucking transport services have a steady trend of development in an objective decline in growth. The necessity of modernization policies in the transport sector at the state level as a software-oriented transport sector investment resources of the economy, taking into account that the share of road transport in the transport system of the country demonstrates the dynamic development with a positive trend in demand for transportation of goods.

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

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Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

2018-03-01

explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27-30 km altitude band) over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27-30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of ˜ 1.34±0.50 % decade-1 (averaged over the three regions). The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0-15° S) is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade-1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22-30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT-LS (upper troposphere-lower stratosphere) below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982-2008)

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Berner, Logan T.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Lloyd, Andrea H.; Goetz, Scott J.

2011-03-01

Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site-level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

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Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950-2005

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Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2018-06-01

Over recent decades, regions of West and Central Africa have experienced different and significant changes in climatic patterns, which have significantly impacted hydrological regimes. Such impacts, however, are not fully understood at the regional scale, largely because of scarce hydroclimatic data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to (a) assemble a new, robust, reconstructed streamflow dataset of 152 gauging stations; (b) quantify changes in streamflow over 1950-2005 period, using these newly reconstructed datasets; (c) significantly reveal trends and variability in streamflow over West and Central Africa based on new reconstructions; and (d) assess the robustness of this dataset by comparing the results with those identified in key climatic drivers (e.g. precipitation and temperature) over the region. Gap filling methods applied to monthly time series (1950-2005) yielded robust results (median Kling-Gupta Efficiency >0.75). The study underlines a good agreement between precipitation and streamflow trends and reveals contrasts between western Africa (negative trends) and Central Africa (positive trends) in the 1950s and 1960s. Homogenous dry conditions of the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by reduced significant negative trends resulting from quasi-decadal modulations of the trend, are replaced by wetter conditions in the recent period (1993-2005). The effect of this rainfall recovery (which extends to West and Central Africa) on increased river flows are further amplified by land use change in some Sahelian basins. This is partially offset, however, by higher potential evapotranspiration rates over parts of Niger and Nigeria. Crucially, the new reconstructed streamflow datasets presented here will be available for both the scientific community and water resource managers.

Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Shushi; Fang Jingyun; Piao Shilong; Chen, Anping; Xu Liang; Myneni, Ranga B; Cao Chunxiang; Pinzon, Jorge E; Tucker, Compton J

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr −1 from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr −1 ) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr −1 ) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr −1 ). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr −1 ) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr −1 ) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr −1 ) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr −1 ) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Seasonal Variations and Yearly Trend Evaluations of Sedimentation Loads: A Case Study at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia

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Aida Soraya Shamsuddin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The aims of this study were to determine the relationship between seasonal variations (wet and dry periods on sedimentation loads and to identify the yearly trend of sedimentation loads at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia from 2003 to 2008. It was found that wet and dry periods influenced the transportation of suspended sediment into the river significantly. The highest suspended sediment loads at Chalok River occurred during the wet period when the intensity of rainfall is high. Besides, the rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads also were analysed using Spearman correlation to identify their relationships. The results showed significant positive relationship between suspended sediment loads with rainfall (r = 0.664, p< 0.05, water level (r = 0.923, p< 0.05 and stream flow (r = 0.919, p< 0.05. Multiple linear regressions revealed 63% of high suspended sediment loads at Chalok River can be explained by rainfall, water level and stream flow. The trends of rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads were analysed by using Mann-Kendall trend test where the results showed that there is a significant increasing trend for suspended sediment loads but no significant increase trend for rainfall, water level and stream flow over the studied periods. It is evident that the evaluations conducted in this study are useful in providing better understanding and reliable conclusion on the basis of seasonal variations and other environmental variables that affect the sedimentations loads in the river. Such effort provides holistic information for effective and wise management policy of river basin management in the future.

Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985–2012

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Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark

2016-01-01

Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985–2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985–91 and 2006–12 – a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress. PMID:27922080

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

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Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Trends in Lifetime Cannabis Use among Czech School-aged Children from 2002 to 2014.

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Kážmér, Ladislav; Csémy, Ladislav; Ružbarská, Ingrid; Pavelka, Jan; Hamřík, Zdeněk; Kalman, Michal

2017-07-01

The aim of the study was to examine trends in the prevalence of lifetime cannabis use among the Czech 15-year old students. Data from the nationally representative Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Survey, conducted in the Czech Republic in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014, were used. Trends in cannabis use among both boys and girls were modelled through binary logistic regression with period as a predictor of the lifetime cannabis use. The prevalence of lifetime cannabis use has significantly decreased among young Czechs, particularly among boys. Gender differences in cannabis use have been also gradually decreasing since 2002, with no significant differences between genders in recent period. Although there are positive changes in the prevalence of adolescent cannabis use, from the European perspective, Czech students still belong to those with significantly higher rates in this respect. Thus, alongside with the use of other substances, adolescent cannabis consumption remains an important challenge for the national public health policy. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Effects of Exponential Trends on Correlations of Stock Markets

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Ai-Jing Lin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in time series. In this paper, DFA is employed to discuss the long-range correlations of stock market. The effects of exponential trends on correlations of Hang Seng Index (HSI are investigated with emphasis. We find that the long-range correlations and the positions of the crossovers of lower order DFA appear to have no immunity to the additive exponential trends. Further, our analysis suggests that an increase in the DFA order increases the efficiency of eliminating on exponential trends. In addition, the empirical study shows that the correlations and crossovers are associated with DFA order and magnitude of exponential trends.

Contemporary Trends in Land Surface Phenologies from the Aral Basin Suggest Weather- or Irrigation-Driven Changes in GPP not Land Cover Change

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Wright, C. K.; de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.

2009-12-01

The transformation of the Aral Sea into the Aral Lakes is a startling example of anthropogenic environmental degradation. However, ongoing impacts of hydrologic modification and climatic change are occurring throughout the nearly 2 million km2 Aral Basin (AB), thus requiring synoptic, basin-wide monitoring of environmental trends. The MODIS 500m global land cover (LC) product is a potential source of such information in a data-sparse region like the AB. However, we find that it is particularly unstable in this arid/semi-arid region. For example, 25% of AB pixels change LC class between 2001 and 2005 versions of the global LC using the IGBP LC scheme. Here we present an alternate analysis of environmental trends in the AB using MODIS data at the same spatial resolution, but incorporating temporal information embedded within contemporary land surface phenologies (LSPs), in contrast to temporally delimited LC. NDVI time series from 2001-2008 were derived from 500m MODIS NBAR data (16-d composites every 8 d; MCD43A4). Focusing on the period from 1 March to 1 October, each pixel time series was comprised of 27 NDVI values per year (or 216 composites in total). Trend analysis using the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall test revealed a number of spatially coherent hotspots of highly significant (p<0.01) positive and negative trends in NDVI dynamics over the 2001-2008 interval. Relative to the 2001 and 2005 LC classifications, positive trends tended to coincide with the following transitions between IGBP classes: open shrub → closed shrub; grassland → {open shrub, cropland}; {open shrub, cropland/natural vegetation mix} → cropland. These findings suggest that apparent LC change events might be false-positives caused by weather-driven increases in GPP. In turn, negative trends were largely coincident with putative LC change to grassland from mostly woody classes: {closed shrub, open shrub, woody savanna, savanna, snow/ice, barren} → grassland. Here, potential false-positives

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

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C. Zerefos

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD, tropopause height changes (including global warming and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC. Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

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Zerefos, Christos; Kapsomenakis, John; Eleftheratos, Kostas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Hubert, Daan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Frith, Stacey; Sofieva, Viktoria; Hassler, Birgit

2018-05-01

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

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J. Bremer

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO₂ content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

Presence and significance of TT virus in Danish patients on maintenance hemodialysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boysen, T.; Christensen, J. K.; Madsen, C. D.

2003-01-01

-positive patients were significantly older than TTV-negative patients (p = 0.011). No relations were found between TTV infection and elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) or CRP or hypo-response to EPO treatment. The mean hemoglobin concentration was 11.24 +/- 1.48 g/dl. Patients with a high TTV viral...... load had a lower level of hemoglobin (10.86 +/- 1.47 g/dl) than the others (p = 0.01). This trend suggested a positive relation between TTV infection and the number of blood transfusions. A restriction fragment length polymorphism assay suggested that patients were infected with different TTV strains......Objectives: To determine the prevalence of TT virus (TTV) in a population of Danish hemodialysis patients and evaluate possible relations between TTV infection and elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and hypo-response to treatment with erythropoietin (EPO). Material and Methods: Patients...

Presence and significance of TT virus in Danish patients on maintenance hemodialysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boysen, Trine; Christensen, Jens K; Madsen, Chris D

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of TT virus (TTV) in a population of Danish hemodialysis patients and evaluate possible relations between TTV infection and elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and hypo-response to treatment with erythropoietin (EPO). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients......-positive patients were significantly older than TTV-negative patients (p = 0.011). No relations were found between TTV infection and elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) or CRP or hypo-response to EPO treatment. The mean hemoglobin concentration was 11.24 +/- 1.48 g/dl. Patients with a high TTV viral...... load had a lower level of hemoglobin (10.86 +/- 1.47 g/dl) than the others (p = 0.01). This trend suggested a positive relation between TTV infection and the number of blood transfusions. A restriction fragment length polymorphism assay suggested that patients were infected with different TTV strains...

An improved method for Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) based on Trend Surface Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhiren; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Yu, Chao

2017-04-01

Among various approaches developed for detecting the multipath effect in high-accuracy GNSS positioning, Only MHM (Multipath Hemispherical Map) and SF (Sidereal Filtering) can be implemented to real-time GNSS data processing. SF is based on the time repeatability of satellites which just suitable for static environment, while the spatiotemporal repeatability-based MHM is applicable not only for static environment but also for dynamic carriers with static multipath environment such as ships and airplanes, and utilizes much smaller number of parameters than ASF. However, the MHM method also has certain defects. Since the MHM take the mean of residuals from the grid as the filter value, it is more suitable when the multipath regime is medium to low frequency. Now existing research data indicate that the newly advanced Sidereal Filtering (ASF) method perform better with high frequency multipath reduction than MHM by contrast. To solve the above problem and improve MHM's performance on high frequency multipath, we combined binary trend surface analysis method with original MHM model to effectively analyze particular spatial distribution and variation trends of multipath effect. We computed trend surfaces of the residuals within a grid by least-square procedures, and chose the best results through the moderate successive test. The enhanced MHM grid was constructed from a set of coefficients of the fitted equation instead of mean value. According to the analysis of the actual observation, the improved MHM model shows positive effect on high frequency multipath reduction, and significantly reduced the root mean square (RMS) value of the carrier residuals. Keywords: Trend Surface Analysis; Multipath Hemispherical Map; high frequency multipath effect

Understanding Trends in Catalytic Activity: The Effect of Adsorbate-Adsorbate Interactions for CO Oxidation Over Transition Metals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grabow, Lars; Larsen, Britt Hvolbæk; Nørskov, Jens Kehlet

2010-01-01

Using high temperature CO oxidation as the example, trends in the reactivity of transition metals are discussed on the basis of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Volcano type relations between the catalytic rate and adsorption energies of important intermediates are introduced...... and the effect of adsorbate-adsorbate interaction on the trends is discussed. We find that adsorbate-adsorbate interactions significantly increase the activity of strong binding metals (left side of the volcano) but the interactions do not change the relative activity of different metals and have a very small...... influence on the position of the top of the volcano, that is, on which metal is the best catalyst....

THE TRADE POSITION OF POLAND IN THE ICT SERVICES SECTOR

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Sylwia Talar

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper includes analysis and assessment of trade in the ICT services performance of Poland. This study is looked at the trade position, essentially on the basis of the share in the world ICT services exports, revealed comparative advantage (RCA, and trade coverage ratio. It also identifies trends of the world trade in the ICT services. The statistics are derived from the basis of UNCTAD and Eurostat. International trade in the ICT ser-vices sector has specific characteristics and the interpretation of results of this trade is to take account of the particular nature of the ICT services. Poland is currently not revealed comparative advantage in the ICT services exports, but has had positive balance. Practically all trade indicators for Poland show very strong growth, which indicate a significant improvement in its ICT services trade position.

Trends in Visual Health Inequalities in Childhood Through Associations of Visual Function With Sex and Social Position Across 3 UK Birth Cohorts.

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Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Cumberland, Phillippa M; Rahi, Jugnoo S

2017-09-01

Despite the existing country-specific strategies tackling social inequalities in visual health in adults, little is known about trends in visual function in childhood and its association with social position. To investigate the distribution of childhood visual function in the United Kingdom and associations with early-life social position between 1961 and 1986, a period of significant social change. Longitudinal cohort study using harmonized data sets from the British 1946, 1958, and 1970 national birth cohorts. In total, 14 283 cohort members with complete data on visual acuity at age 15 or 16 years, measured in 1961, 1974, and 1986, respectively, for each cohort, and social position were assessed. Using habitual distance visual acuity (with correction if prescribed), participants were assigned to a visual function category ranging from bilateral normal to visual impairment/severe visual impairment/blindness (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification). Distribution of visual function over time and associations with social position (risk ratios [RRs] and 95% confidence intervals) were analyzed. Complete data were available for 3152 participants (aged 15 years; 53% boys [n = 1660]) in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development, 6683 participants (aged 16 years; 51% boys [n = 3420]) in the 1958 National Child Development Study, and 4448 participants (aged 16 years; 48% boys [n = 2156]) in the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study. The proportion of children with bilateral normal vision decreased by 1.3% (95% CI, -5.1% to 2.7%) in 1974 and 1.7% (95% CI, -5.9% to 2.7%) in 1986. The risk of overall impaired vision increased by 1.20 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.43) and the risk of visual impairment/severe visual impairment/blindness by 1.75 times (95% CI, 1.03-2.98) during this period. Girls were consistently at increased risk of all vision impairment categories. Higher social position at

Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan

2012-11-01

Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

NatHER: protocol for systematic evaluation of trends in survival among patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer.

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Korner, Eli J; Morris, Anne; Allen, Isabel Elaine; Hurvitz, Sara; Beattie, Mary S; Kalesan, Bindu

2015-10-01

Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is an aggressive form of breast cancer and is historically associated with poor outcomes compared with HER2-negative MBC. Since 1998, four drugs have been globally approved for the targeted treatment of HER2-positive MBC. Additional advances in patient care-such as improved breast cancer screening, HER2 testing, and supportive care-have also occurred. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine whether there has been a cumulative change in survival over time in patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer based on results from interventional clinical trials (ICTs) and observational studies and to compare outcomes across these types of studies. A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials will be performed. Two investigators will independently assess each abstract for inclusion. English language reports of ICTs and observational studies that include patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer from 1987 onwards will be considered. The primary outcome of interest is overall survival; secondary outcomes include progression-free survival and safety. Data on clinical outcomes, as well as on study design, study population, treatment/intervention, methodological quality, and outcomes, will be extracted using a structured codebook developed by the authors for this study. Standard and cumulative random effects meta-analysis will be performed to derive pooled risk estimates, both overall and by study design, controlling for covariates such as aggregate demographic and clinical characteristics of patients, treatment/intervention, and study characteristics. Heterogeneity of studies will be evaluated using the I(2) statistic. Differences in risk estimates by quality characteristics will be performed using meta-regression. This study will evaluate current and evolving trends in survival associated with

Gender Gap Trends on Mathematics Exams Position Girls and Young Women for STEM Careers

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Beekman, John A.; Ober, David

2015-01-01

Nine years of results on 4.2 million of Indiana's Indiana Statewide Testing for Educational Progress (ISTEP) mathematics (math) exams (grades 3-10) taken after the implementation of No Child Left Behind have been used to determine gender gaps and their associated trends. Sociocultural factors were investigated by comparing math gender gaps and gap…

Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

2018-02-01

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

Genetic trend for growth and wool performance in a closed flock of Bharat Merino sheep at sub temperate region of Kodai hills, Tamil Nadu.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallick, P K; Thirumaran, S M K; Pourouchottamane, R; Rajapandi, S; Venkataramanan, R; Nagarajan, G; Murali, G; Rajendiran, A S

2016-03-01

The study was conducted at Southern Regional Research Center, ICAR-Central Sheep and Wool Research Institute (CSWRI), Mannavanur, Kodaikanal, Tamil Nadu to estimate genetic trends for birth weight (BWT), weaning weight (3WT), 6 months weight (6WT), and greasy fleece weight (GFY) in a Bharat Merino (BM) flock, where selection was practiced for 6WT and GFY. The data for this study represents a total of 1652 BM lambs; progeny of 144 sires spread over 15 years starting from 2000 to 2014, obtained from the BM flock of ICAR-SRRC (CSWRI), Mannavanur, Kodaikanal, Tamil Nadu, India. The genetic trends were calculated by regression of average predicted breeding values using software WOMBAT for the traits BWT, 3WT, 6WT and GFY versus the animal's birth year. The least square means were 3.28±0.02 kg, 19.08±0.23 kg, 25.00±0.35 kg and 2.13±0.07 kg for BWT, 3WT, 6WT and GFY, respectively. Genetic trends were positive and highly significant (p<0.01) for BWT, while the values for 3WT, 6WT and GFY though positive, were not significant. The estimates of genetic trends in BWT, 3WT, 6WT and GFY were 5 g, 0.8 g, 7 g and 0.3 g/year gain and the fit of the regression shows 55%, 22%, 42% and 12% coefficient of determination with the regressed value, respectively. In this study, estimated mean predicted breeding value (kg) in BWT and 3WT, 6WT and GFY were 0.067, 0.008, 0.036 and -0.003, respectively. Estimates of genetic trends indicated that there was a positive genetic improvement in all studied traits and selection would be effective for the improvement of body weight traits and GFY of BM sheep.

Work injury trends during the last three decades in the construction industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lander, Flemming; Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lauritsen, Jens M

2016-01-01

were calculated. Employment levels in the construction sector were used as an indicator of fluctuations in the business cycle since 1980. Results: Through the last three decades the overall trend of work-related injuries was unchanged. For some subgroups of injuries, such as major injuries and injuries...... were significantly related to the business cycle, where the risk of injuries was higher during economic booms than during recessions. Further, periods with economic booms are positively related to the rate of minor injuries and injuries due to all other work activities than the use of power tools...

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

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A. M. Toihir

2018-03-01

��km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27–30 km altitude band over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27–30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of  ∼ 1.34±0.50 % decade−1 (averaged over the three regions. The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0–15° S is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade−1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22–30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT–LS (upper troposphere–lower stratosphere below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Need, E.A.

1994-01-01

Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

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Jingjing Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

Linear trend and climate response of five-needle pines in the western United States related to treeline proximity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kipfmueller, K.F. [Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept. of Geography; Salzer, M.W. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research

2010-01-15

This study investigated sixty-six 5-needle pine growth chronologies from 1896 to their end years in order to identify potential patterns related to linear trends in ring width. Individual chronology responses to climate were also evaluated by comparing the chronologies with seasonal temperature and precipitation data from 1896 to the present date. Chronologies exhibiting similar patterns of climate response were grouped in order to examine the role of treeline proximity on climate-growth relationships. Ring width measurements for pine sites located in the western United States were obtained from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Growth indices were compared among all sites in order to assess the relative strength of common signals with increasing distance. Pearson correlations were used to calculate linear trends for each chronology. A cluster analysis of climate response patterns indicated that most chronologies positively associated with temperatures were located near upper treeline and contained significant positive linear trends. The study suggested that 5-needle pine treeline chronologies may be used as predictors in temperature reconstructions. However, care must be taken to determine that collection sites have not been impacted by disturbances such as fire or insect outbreaks. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

Trends, options for market positioning and success factors in E-Mobility; Tendenzen, Positionierungsoptionen und Erfolgsfaktoren bei E-Mobilitaet. Nachhaltige Chancen fuer Elektrizitaetsversorger

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ermann, A. [The Advisory House AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Pils, F.; Karring, K. [The Mobility House GmbH, Salzburg (Austria)

2010-07-01

This article discusses the trends in electro-mobility and the options available to electricity utilities when positioning themselves in this market. The factors influencing their success in doing this are also discussed. The general framework in which these activities are taking place are discussed as are the obstacles that hinder development in this area. The influence of society and politics, environmental, economical and ecological factors are looked at. Further, technological factors such as innovation and further development in the vehicle, battery and renewable energy areas are looked at. The necessary infrastructure for the operation of electrical vehicles is discussed. Case studies on electro-mobility are briefly presented and discussed. The necessary clear focus and the efficient use of the means available are stressed.

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

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G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

2010-01-01

Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

Science.gov (United States)

Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2009-09-01

directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.

Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing

2013-01-01

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036  yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

2010-01-01

Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

1983-07-01

A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

[Influence of different slope position and profile in Disporopsis pernyi forest land on soil microbial biomass and enzyme activity in southwest Karst mountain of China ].

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Hua-Jun; He, Bing-Hui; Zhao, Xuan-chi; Li, Yuan; Mao, Wen-tao; Zeng, Qing-ping

2014-09-01

Soil microbial biomass and enzyme activity are important parameters to evaluate the quality of the soil environment. The goal of this study was to determine the influence of different slope position and section in Disporopsis pernyi forest land on the soil microbial biomass and enzyme activity in southwest Karst Mountain. In this study, we chose the Dip forest land at Yunfo village Chengdong town Liangping country Chongqing Province as the study object, to analyze the influence of three different slope positions [Up Slope(US), Middle Slope(MS), Below Slope(BS)] and two different sections-upper layer(0-15 cm) and bottom layer(15-30 cm) on the soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC), soil microbial biomass nitrogen (SMBN), microbial carbon entropy (qMBC), microbial nitrogen entropy (qMBN) , catalase(CAT), alkaline phosphatase (ALK), urease(URE), and invertase(INV). The results showed that the same trend (BS > MS > US) was found for SMBC, SMBN, qMBC, qMBN, CAT and INV of upper soil layer, while a different trend (BS > US > MS) was observed for ALK. In addition, another trend (MS > US > BS) was observed for URE. The same trend (BS > MS >US) was observed for SMBN, qMBN, CAT, ALK, URE and INV in bottom layer, but a different trend (MS > BS > US) was observed for SMBC and qMBC. The SMBC, SMBN, CAT, ALK, URE and INV manifested as upper > bottom with reduction of the section, while qMBC and qMBN showed the opposite trend. Correlation analysis indicated that there were significant (P <0.05) or highly significant (P < 0.01) positive correlations among SMBC in different slope position and section, soil enzyme activity and moisture. According to the two equations of regression analysis, SMBC tended to increase with the increasing CAT and ALK, while decreased with the increasing pH. Then SMBN tended to increase with the increasing URE and INV.

Trends in chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men attending a large urban sexual health service in Australia, 2002-2009

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background To determine whether chlamydia positivity among heterosexual men (MSW) and chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity among men who have sex with men (MSM), are changing. Methods Computerized records for men attending a large sexual health clinic between 2002 and 2009 were analyzed. Chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity were calculated and logistic regression used to assess changes over time. Results 17769 MSW and 8328 MSM tested for chlamydia and 7133 MSM tested for gonorrhea. In MSW, 7.37% (95% CI: 6.99-7.77) were chlamydia positive; the odds of chlamydia positivity increased by 4% per year (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07; p = 0.02) after main risk factors were adjusted for. In MSM, 3.70% (95% CI: 3.30-4.14) were urethral chlamydia positive and 5.36% (95% CI: 4.82-5.96) were anal chlamydia positive; positivity could not be shown to have changed over time. In MSM, 3.05% (95% CI: 2.63-3.53) tested anal gonorrhea positive and 1.83% (95% CI: 1.53-2.18) tested pharyngeal gonorrhea positive. Univariate analysis found the odds of anal gonorrhea positivity had decreased (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-1.00; p = 0.05), but adjusting for main risk factors resulted in no change. Urethral gonorrhea cases in MSM as a percentage of all MSM tested for gonorrhea also fell (p gonorrhea prevalence among MSM is stable or declining. High STI testing rates among MSM in Australia may explain differences in STI trends between MSM and MSW. PMID:21639943

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

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S. T. Akhil Raj

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004–2014: a multi-exponential approach

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M. Pandolfi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background, located in the northeast (NE of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004–2014 were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann–Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10 showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN and Montseny (MSY during 2004–2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V–Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic and from the industrial (metallurgy

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

Science.gov (United States)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Different trends in extreme and median surface aerosol extinction coefficients over China inferred from quality-controlled visibility data

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Li, Chengcai; Zhao, Chunsheng

2018-03-01

Although the temporal changes in aerosol properties have been widely investigated, the majority of studies has focused on average conditions without much emphasis on the extremes. However, the latter can be more important in terms of human health and climate change. This study uses a previously validated, quality-controlled visibility dataset to investigate the long-term trends (expressed in terms of relative changes) in extreme surface aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) over China and compares them with the median trends. Two methods are used to independently evaluate the trends, which arrive at consistent results. The signs of extreme and median trends are generally coherent, whereas their magnitudes show distinct spatial and temporal differences. In the 1980s, an overall positive trend is found throughout China with the extreme trend exceeding the mean trend, except for northwest China and the North China Plain. In the 1990s, AEC over northeast and northwest China started to decline while the rest of the country still exhibited an increase. The extreme trends continued to dominate in the south while they yielded to the mean trend in the north. After the year 2000, the extreme trend became weaker than the mean trend overall in terms of both the magnitude and significance level. The annual trend can be primarily attributed to winter and fall trends. The results suggest that the decadal changes in pollution in China may be governed by different mechanisms. Synoptic conditions that often result in extreme air quality changes might have dominated in the 1980s, whereas emission increase might have been the main factor for the 2000s.

Prevention measures for avoiding unexpected drifting of marine component in recovery equipment of significant metals from sea water. Positioning and monitoring system for marine component and improvement of its positioning accuracy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamada, Masao; Kasai, Noboru; Seko, Noriaki; Hasegawa, Shin; Takeda, Hayato; Katakai, Akio; Sugo, Takanobu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Takasaki, Gunma (Japan). Takasaki Radiation Chemistry Research Establishment; Kawabata, Yukiya [Ebara Reseach Co., Ltd., Fujisawa, Kanagawa (Japan); Onuma, Kenji [Mitsubishi Materials Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

2001-11-01

Positioning and monitoring system for marine component in recovery equipment of significant metals from seawater with adsorbent was designed and assembled to avoid unexpected drifting accident. This system which was set on float part of the marine component obtains the positioning data from GPS satellites and sends them to Takasaki and Mutsu establishments through satellite communication. In both establishments, the position data were shown in computer displays. As characteristic test for 20 days in the real sea, 262 data were obtained every 2 hours. The twice of the distance root mean square (2DRMS) was 223.7 m. To improve this performance, three new functions were added to the present firmware. There are to raise positioning resolutions in longitude and latitude from 0.001 to 0.00001 degree, to remove the reflection of GPS signal from sea surface, and to average remaining three positioning data after maximum and minimum data were omitted from continuous five positioning data. The improved system shows the 2DRMS positioning of 15.5 m. This performance is enough to prevent marine component from its drifting accident. (author)

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions

Science.gov (United States)

You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick

2017-06-01

Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

Trends in motor neuron disease: association with latitude and air lead levels in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Santurtún, Ana; Villar, Alejandro; Delgado-Alvarado, Manuel; Riancho, Javier

2016-08-01

Motor neuron diseases (MND) are a group of disorders characterized by motor neuron degeneration. Among them, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is by far the most common in adulthood. This paper assesses the trend and geographical pattern in MND incidence in Spain and the possible air lead levels effect on this pathology. To confirm this concept, we performed a retrospective analysis of the deaths due to MND in Spain during 2000 and 2013, determined the geographical differences, and explored the relationship between MND and the air levels of lead. Overall, between 2000 and 2013, 11,355 people died in Spain because of MND. Disease mortality significantly increased in recent years (2007-2013) when compared with the first time of the period. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient also showed a statistically significant positive trend (CC = 0.824, p = 0.0002). Among people over 65 years, mortality rates were higher in Northern provinces. Moreover, we found a significant association of MND mortality with higher air lead levels (CC = 0.457, p = 0.01). Our study confirms that MND mortality is increasing in Spain, with a significant latitude gradient, which suggests an important role of environmental exposures. This ecological study suggests that air lead levels may be implicated in ALS pathogenesis.

Persistent collective trend in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

2010-12-01

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

Using Google Flu Trends data in forecasting influenza-like-illness related ED visits in Omaha, Nebraska.

Science.gov (United States)

Araz, Ozgur M; Bentley, Dan; Muelleman, Robert L

2014-09-01

Emergency department (ED) visits increase during the influenza seasons. It is essential to identify statistically significant correlates in order to develop an accurate forecasting model for ED visits. Forecasting influenza-like-illness (ILI)-related ED visits can significantly help in developing robust resource management strategies at the EDs. We first performed correlation analyses to understand temporal correlations between several predictors of ILI-related ED visits. We used the data available for Douglas County, the biggest county in Nebraska, for Omaha, the biggest city in the state, and for a major hospital in Omaha. The data set included total and positive influenza test results from the hospital (ie, Antigen rapid (Ag) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV) tests); an Internet-based influenza surveillance system data, that is, Google Flu Trends, for both Nebraska and Omaha; total ED visits in Douglas County attributable to ILI; and ILI surveillance network data for Douglas County and Nebraska as the predictors and data for the hospital's ILI-related ED visits as the dependent variable. We used Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt Winters methods with3 linear regression models to forecast ILI-related ED visits at the hospital and evaluated model performances by comparing the root means square errors (RMSEs). Because of strong positive correlations with ILI-related ED visits between 2008 and 2012, we validated the use of Google Flu Trends data as a predictor in an ED influenza surveillance tool. Of the 5 forecasting models we have tested, linear regression models performed significantly better when Google Flu Trends data were included as a predictor. Regression models including Google Flu Trends data as a predictor variable have lower RMSE, and the lowest is achieved when all other variables are also included in the model in our forecasting experiments for the first 5 weeks of 2013 (with RMSE = 57.61). Google Flu Trends data

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holand, P

1996-02-01

The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

Bibliometric analysis of authorship trends and collaboration dynamics over the past three decades of BONE's publication history.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Faisal; Sandelski, Morgan M; Rytlewski, Jeffrey D; Lamb, Jennifer; Pedro, Christina; Adjei, Michael B N; Lunsford, Shatoria; Fischer, James P; Wininger, Austin E; Whipple, Elizabeth C; Loder, Randall T; Kacena, Melissa A

2018-02-01

The existence of a gender gap in academia has been a hotly debated topic over the past several decades. It has been argued that due to the gender gap, it is more difficult for women to obtain higher positions. Manuscripts serve as an important measurement of one's accomplishments within a particular field of academia. Here, we analyzed, over the past 3 decades, authorship and other trends in manuscripts published in BONE, one of the premier journals in the field of bone and mineral metabolism. For this study, one complete year of manuscripts was evaluated (e.g. 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015) for each decade. A bibliometric analysis was then performed of authorship trends for those manuscripts. Analyzed fields included: average number of authors per manuscript, numerical position of the corresponding author, number of institutions collaborating on each manuscript, number of countries involved with each manuscript, number of references, and number of citations per manuscript. Each of these fields increased significantly over the 30-year time frame (pgender of both the first and corresponding authors was identified and analyzed over time and by region. There was a significant increase in the percentage of female first authors from 23.4% in 1985 to 47.8% in 2015 (p=0.001). The percentage of female corresponding authors also increased from 21.2% in 1985 to 35.4% in 2015 although it was not significant (p=0.07). With such a substantial emphasis being placed on publishing in academic medicine, it is crucial to comprehend the changes in publishing characteristics over time and geographical region. These findings highlight authorship trends in BONE over time as well as by region. Importantly, these findings also highlight where challenges still exist. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in surface wind speed and significant wave height as revealed by ERA-Interim wind wave hindcast in the Central Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shanas, P.R.; SanilKumar, V.

height. The area average analysis is carried out to investigate the sensitivity of the identified trend results for the point location and found similar trends for extreme wind speed and SWH. The high (>5 m) annual maximum SWH in the study area...

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Magnetic resonance imaging findings in spinal tuberculosis: Comparison of HIV positive and negative patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cameron Michael Anley

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background: There is an increasing incidence of Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV and tuberculosis (TB co-infection. This has led to an increasing number of atypical features on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. We postulated that the type 4 hypersensitivity response causing granulomatous inflammation may be disrupted by the HIV resulting in less vertebral body destruction. This study compares the MRI features of spinal tuberculosis in HIV positive and negative patients. Materials and Methods: Fifty patients with confirmed spinal tuberculosis, HIV status and available MRI scans at a single institution from 2003-2009 were identified. HIV status was positive in 20 and negative in 30. Females were predominant (34:16. The HIV positive group was younger at 32.4 versus 46 years (P=0.008. Blood parameters (WCC, ESR, Hb, Lymphocyte count were not significantly different between the HIV groups. MRI scans were reviewed by a radiologist who was blinded to the HIV status. Site, extent of disease, body collapse, abscess location and volume, kyphotic deformity and cord signal were reported. Results: There was no difference between the number of vertebral bodies affection with TB involvement, presence of cord signal or incidence of non-contiguous lesions. The HIV negative group had significantly more total vertebral collapse (P=0.036 and greater kyphosis (P=0.002. The HIV positive group had a trend to larger anterior epidural pus collection (P=0.2. Conclusion: HIV negative patients demonstrate greater tuberculous destruction in terms of total percentage body collapse and resultant kyphosis. There is no difference in the incidence of cord signal or presence of non-contiguous lesions. HIV positive patients show a trend to a greater epidural abscess volume. This difference may be explained by the reduced autoimmune response of the type 4 hypersensitivity reaction caused by the HIV infection.

Trends in Authorship of Articles in Major Ophthalmology Journals by Gender, 2002-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Mimouni, Michael; Zayit-Soudry, Shiri; Segal, Ori; Barak, Yoreh; Nemet, Arie Y; Shulman, Shiri; Geffen, Noa

2016-08-01

To evaluate trends in the prevalence of women authors in ophthalmology in recent years. Cohort study. Authors listed in publications of 6 leading ophthalmology journals between January 2002 and December 2014. Using the PubMed search engine, we conducted an observational study of trends in gender distribution of all authors in 6 leading ophthalmology journals between January 2002 and December 2014. In multiauthored articles, the first listed author often is the lead investigator and the last author is the senior author. Therefore, the full names and positions (first, middle, or last) of all authors in every article were collected. A Google-based name identifier was used to assign the gender of authors. Proportion of women authors throughout the study period in all journals, general ophthalmology versus subspecialty journals, and basic science versus clinical research journals. Furthermore, we assessed the proportion of women in different authorship positions (first, middle, and last). A total of 102 254 authors from 23 026 published articles were analyzed. There was a significant rise over time in the percentage of women authors, with a steeper slope for first authors than for last authors (P<0.001), although in 2014, women authors were less than the 50% mark in all categories of authorship. The rise in the percentage of women authors was similar in basic and clinical research, but was steeper for first authorship than for last authorship (P<0.001). In all 3 authorship positions (first, middle, or last), women's contributions consistently were higher in basic research publications. The rise in the percentage of women authors was significantly steeper for general journals than for subspecialty journals (P<0.001). There was no significant rise for last authorship in subspecialty journals. In all 3 authorship positions, the proportion of women was consistently higher in general ophthalmology journals than for subspecialty journals. Despite an overall increase in

Significance of Waterway Navigation Positioning Systems On Ship's Manoeuvring Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Galor, W.

The main goal of navigation is to lead the ship to the point of destination safety and efficiently. Various factors may affect ship realisating this process. The ship movement on waterway are mainly limited by water area dimensions (surface and depth). These limitations cause the requirement to realise the proper of ship movement trajectory. In case when this re requirement cant't fulfil then marine accident may happend. This fact is unwanted event caused losses of human health and life, damage or loss of cargo and ship, pollution of natural environment, damage of port structures or blocking the port of its ports and lost of salvage operation. These losses in same cases can be catas- trophical especially while e.i. crude oil spilling could be place. To realise of safety navigation process is needed to embrace the ship's movement trajectory by waterways area. The ship's trajectory is described by manoeuvring lane as a surface of water area which is require to realise of safety ship movement. Many conditions affect to ship manoeuvring line. The main are following: positioning accuracy, ship's manoeuvring features and phenomena's of shore and ship's bulk common affecting. The accuracy of positioning system is most important. This system depends on coast navigation mark- ing which can range many kinds of technical realisation. Mainly used systems based on lights (line), radionavigation (local system or GPS, DGPS), or radars. If accuracy of positiong is higer, then safety of navigation is growing. This article presents these problems exemplifying with approaching channel to ports situated on West Pomera- nian water region.

Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979–2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. K. Prasad

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year, and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times, positive and significant only over a period of six months (December to May. The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033�

[Significance of journal articles within the scientific literature of various disciplines: trends over the past two decades].

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, András; Soós, Sándor

2015-06-14

Trends of preferred publication channels in selected categories of Sciences, Social Sciences and Arts & Humanities were studied by determining the percentage share of references in reviews to serials (journals) in all references. It was found that in the period 1995-2014, the fraction of articles published in journals was increasing in all selected areas of science and scholarship. The most dynamical increase was found in Social Sciences.

Prevalence and trends of drugged driving in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Robyn D; Mainegra Hing, Marisela; Pashley, Charlotte R; Brown, Steve W; Vanlaar, Ward G M

2017-02-01

This study evaluates prevalence and trends in drugged driving in Canada based on multiple indicators collected from the Road Safety Monitor (RSM) and Canada's National Fatality Database maintained by the Traffic Injury Research Foundation (TIRF). The objective of this paper is to identify the state of drug-positive driving in Canada, as well as to make comparisons with data from previous years to determine whether changes have occurred. Available data from the RSM on self-reported drugged driving behaviours were collected and analyzed using multivariate techniques in various years spanning from 2002 to 2015. Data from TIRF's National Fatality Database from 2000 to 2012 were also analyzed to evaluate trends and prevalence of drugs in fatally injured drivers across Canada. Additionally, differences among drugged drivers with respect to gender and age were studied. Analyses of the RSM data and of the National Fatality Database showed that, as a whole, the prevalence of drugged driving has remained relatively stable over the past decade, with some changes noticed in specific years for some drug types. Specifically from the RSM, there was a 62.5% increase from the 1.6% of drivers reporting driving within two hours of using marijuana in 2013 to 2.6% in 2015. The analyses of the fatality data revealed a 16.9% increase in the percentage of fatally injured drivers testing positive for drugs between 2000 and 2012 (from 33.56% to 39.24%). Cocaine-positive fatally injured drivers increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 6.2% in 2012. Similarly, marijuana-positive fatally injured drivers increased from 12.8% in 2000 to 19.7% in 2012. Results showed varying characteristics with respect to gender and age among self-reported and fatally injured drugged drivers. Drugged driving behaviours remain prevalent among Canadian drivers and drugs continue to be found in over one-third of tested fatally injured drivers. Although self-reported behaviours have neither decreased nor increased overall in

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurst,, Brian; Ooi, Yao Hua; Pedersen, Lasse Heje

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time-series momentum has delivered positive average returns...

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Pei

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

Science.gov (United States)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

Prognostic Significance of the Number of Positive Lymph Nodes in Women With T1-2N1 Breast Cancer Treated With Mastectomy: Should Patients With 1, 2, and 3 Positive Lymph Nodes Be Grouped Together?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai Kubicky, Charlotte, E-mail: charlottedai@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Medicine and Knight Cancer Institute, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon (United States); Mongoue-Tchokote, Solange [Biostatistics Shared Resource, Knight Cancer Institute, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon (United States)

2013-04-01

Purpose: To determine whether patients with 1, 2, or 3 positive lymph nodes (LNs) have similar survival outcomes. Methods and Materials: We analyzed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry of breast cancer patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2003. We identified 10,415 women with T1-2N1M0 breast cancer who were treated with mastectomy with no adjuvant radiation, with at least 10 LNs examined and 6 months of follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier method and log–rank test were used for survival analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Median follow-up was 92 months. Ten-year overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) were progressively worse with increasing number of positive LNs. Survival rates were 70%, 64%, and 60% (OS), and 82%, 76%, and 72% (CSS) for 1, 2, and 3 positive LNs, respectively. Pairwise log–rank test P values were <.001 (1 vs 2 positive LNs), <.001 (1 vs 3 positive LNs), and .002 (2 vs 3 positive LNs). Multivariate analysis showed that number of positive LNs was a significant predictor of OS and CSS. Hazard ratios increased with the number of positive LNs. In addition, age, primary tumor size, grade, estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor status, race, and year of diagnosis were significant prognostic factors. Conclusions: Our study suggests that patients with 1, 2, and 3 positive LNs have distinct survival outcomes, with increasing number of positive LNs associated with worse OS and CSS. The conventional grouping of 1-3 positive LNs needs to be reconsidered.

Trend analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

1991-01-01

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region

Science.gov (United States)

Hartnett, Justin Joseph

Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The

Significance and management of positive surgical margins at the time of radical prostatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Silberstein, Jonathan L; Eastham, James A

2014-10-01

Positive surgical margins (PSM) at the time of radical prostatectomy (RP) result in an increased risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and secondary treatment. We review current literature with a focus on stratifying the characteristics of the PSM that may define its significance, the impact of modern imaging and surgical approaches in avoidance of PSM, and management strategies when PSM do occur. We performed a review of the available literature to identify factors associated with PSM and their management. PSM have been repeatedly demonstrated to be associated with an increased risk of BCR following RP. The specific characteristics (size, number, location, Gleason score at the margin) of the PSM may influence the risk of recurrence. Novel imaging and surgical approaches are being investigated and may allow for reductions of PSM in the future. The use of adjuvant treatment for a PSM remains controversial and should be decided on an individual basis after a discussion about the risks and benefits. The goal of RP is complete resection of the tumor. PSM are associated with increased risk of BCR and secondary treatments. Of the risk factors associated with BCR after RP, a PSM is directly influenced by surgical technique.

Significance and management of positive surgical margins at the time of radical prostatectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan L. Silberstein

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Positive surgical margins (PSM at the time of radical prostatectomy (RP result in an increased risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR and secondary treatment. We review current literature with a focus on stratifying the characteristics of the PSM that may define its significance, the impact of modern imaging and surgical approaches in avoidance of PSM, and management strategies when PSM do occur. We performed a review of the available literature to identify factors associated with PSM and their management. PSM have been repeatedly demonstrated to be associated with an increased risk of BCR following RP. The specific characteristics (size, number, location, Gleason score at the margin of the PSM may influence the risk of recurrence. Novel imaging and surgical approaches are being investigated and may allow for reductions of PSM in the future. The use of adjuvant treatment for a PSM remains controversial and should be decided on an individual basis after a discussion about the risks and benefits. The goal of RP is complete resection of the tumor. PSM are associated with increased risk of BCR and secondary treatments. Of the risk factors associated with BCR after RP, a PSM is directly influenced by surgical technique.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Pedersen, Peder J.

2008-01-01

by exploiting a long and complete time-series from the Eurobarometer Survey, 1973-2002 allowing an examination of trends in life satisfaction across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Our results show that while current GDP growth does not affect trends in well......-being, accelerations in GDP growth do. In addition, faster GDP growth and faster growth of government consumption than in neighbouring countries induces positive trends in life satisfaction. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of aspirations theory and the theory of reference group comparisons.  ...

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Tan, Bin; Yu, Yunyue

2014-05-01

Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3

Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India)

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak

2018-02-01

Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Feng Yeh

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

A trending database for human performance events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, D.

1993-01-01

An effective Operations Experience program includes a standardized methodology for the investigation of unplanned events and a tool capable of retaining investigation data for the purpose of trending analysis. A database used in conjunction with a formalized investigation procedure for the purpose of trending unplanning event data is described. The database follows the structure of INPO's Human Performance Enhancement System for investigations. The database screens duplicate on-line the HPES evaluation Forms. All information pertaining to investigations is collected, retained and entered into the database using these forms. The database will be used for trending analysis to determine if any significant patterns exist, for tracking progress over time both within AECL and against industry standards, and for evaluating the success of corrective actions. Trending information will be used to help prevent similar occurrences

Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

Science.gov (United States)

Kokol, Peter

2017-07-01

Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, A. V.

The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

Science.gov (United States)

Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

2016-01-01

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

Age trends in economically important traits of Merino ewes ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Schalk Cloete

Schalkwyk et al., 1999a), temperature and spatial position in the incubator (Van ... the eggs was fitted as a random effect, while female age, month of lay and the .... The trend for eggshell structure mirrored that of evaporation rate (Figure 1), ...

A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.-F. Sang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961–2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale. The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann–Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Ningrum, I. H.; Irianto, H.; Riptanti, E. W.

2018-03-01

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia and to know the trend and projection of Indonesian soybean production as well as the import in 2016-2020. The basic method used in this research is the description analysis method. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series data from 1979-2015. Methods of data analysis using simultaneous equations model with 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square) method and Trend analysis. The results showed that the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia are consumption and production. Consumption has positive effect while production is negatively affected. The percentage changed in soybean imports is greater than the percentage change in consumption and production of soybeans. Consumption is positively influenced by imports and production, while production is influenced positively by consumption and negative by imports. The production trend of soybean in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with a percentage of 11.18% per year. Production in 2016 is projected at 1.110.537 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 1,721,350 tons. The import trend in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 4.13% per year. Import in 2016 is projected at 2.224.188 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 2.611.270 tons.

Trend of elevator-related accidents in tehran.

Science.gov (United States)

Khaji, Ali; Ghodsi, Syyed Mohammad

2014-06-01

Elevator-related accidents are uncommon, but can cause significant injury. However, little data exist on these types of accidents. To compile and analyze accident data involving elevators in an effort to eliminate or at least significantly reduce such accidents. In this retrospective study we investigated 1,819 cases of elevator-related accidents during a four-year period (1999-2003) in Tehran. The data were obtained from the Tehran Safety Services & Fire Fighting Organization (TSFO) that is officially and solely responsible to conduct rescue missions of civilians in Tehran. The number of elevator accidents has increased steadily during the four year study period. During these four years there was a positive upward trend for serious injuries and mortality resulting from elevator accidents. Technical problems were the main cause with 74.5%, followed by power loss and overcapacity riding with 11.5% and 7.9% respectively. Sixty-three individuals sustained serious injury and 15 people died as a result of elevator accidents. The number of accidents was significantly higher in summer (x2=18.32, P=0.032) and a considerable proportion of incidences (54%, 947 cases out of 1819) occurred between 5 and 12 pm. Establishment of an organization to inspect the settings, maintenance, and repair of elevators is necessary.

A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-08-01

A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

Trends in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids in public supply wells of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins, San Bernardino County, California: Influence of legacy land use

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K.

2013-01-01

Concentrations and temporal changes in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin were evaluated to identify trends and factors that may be affecting trends. One hundred, thirty-one public-supply wells were selected for analysis based on the availability of data spanning at least 11 years between the late 1980s and the 2000s. Forty-one of the 131 wells (31%) had a significant (p relations of nitrate trends to depth, lateral position, and VOCs imply that increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from historical agricultural land use and that more recent urban land use is generally associated with lower nitrate concentrations and greater VOC occurrence. Increasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater current nitrate concentrations and relatively greater amounts of urban land. Decreasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater amounts of natural land use. Trends in TDS concentrations were not related to depth, lateral position, or VOC occurrence, reflecting more complex factors affecting TDS than nitrate in the study area.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

TRENDS IN URBAN STORM WATER QUALITY IN TALLINN AND INFLUENCES FROM STORMFLOW AND BASEFLOW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bharat Maharjan

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Temporal trends provide a good interpretation of change in stormwater quality over time. This study aimed to analyse trends and influences due to stormflow and baseflow. Grab samples of 18-19 years from 1995 to 2014 recorded at outlets of 7 Tallinn watersheds were analysed for monotonic trend through seasonal Mann Kendall test for long-term, short-term, baseflow and stormflow. Statistically significant downward trends (P-value (p 0.05 and < 0.2 for 3 – SS, 1 – BOD, 1 – TN and 1 – TP were identified. Statistically significant long-term upward trends of pH were revealed in 5 basins, which reduced to 2 with 5 less significant upward trends over the 10 year period, indicating improvements in pH reduction. Härjapea has the highest pH without trend but it includes an upward trend of TN at p = 0.051. The highly possible causes for downward trends are street sweeping, sewer network improvement, decline in sub-urban agricultural areas, etc. The upward trend results of pH are related to increased alkalinisation due to acidic rain, weathering of carbonate rocks, sewage discharge and alkaline road dust. In most of the basins, stormflow has more influence on trends than baseflow.

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Methamphetamine use among newly diagnosed HIV-positive young men in North Carolina, United States, from 2000 to 2005.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher B Hurt

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Methamphetamine (MA is a new arrival to the Southeastern United States (US. Incidence of HIV is also increasing regionally, but data are limited regarding any association between this trend and MA use. We examined behavioral data from North Carolina (NC residents newly diagnosed with HIV, collected by the Department of Health between 2000-2005.Among 1,460 newly diagnosed HIV-positive young men, an increasing trend was seen from 2000-2005 in MA use (p = 0.01, total n = 20. In bivariate analyses, users of MA had significantly greater odds of reporting other substance use, including alcohol, powder or crack cocaine, marijuana, and methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy". They were also more likely to have reported sexual activity while traveling outside NC; sex with anonymous partners; and previous HIV testing. In a predictive model, MA use had a negative association with nonwhite race, and strong positive associations with powder cocaine, "ecstasy," or intravenous drug use and being a university student.Similar to trends seen in more urban parts of the US, MA use among newly diagnosed, HIV-positive young men is increasing in NC. These data are among the first to demonstrate this relationship in a region with a burgeoning epidemic of MA use. Opportunities exist for MA-related HIV risk-reduction interventions whenever young men intersect the healthcare system.

Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Deborah A; Lim, Alwin; Thomas, Mark G; Baker, Michael G; Roberts, Sally A; Fraser, John D; Ritchie, Stephen R

2013-12-03

New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend.

Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen L. Durden

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius G T Schut

Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profile dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. F. Sofieva

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and intercompared; only those datasets which are in good agreement, and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at midlatitudes and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s and stratospheric cooling.

An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Franquist, Eric S.

Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

The relationship between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables among university students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aysun Babacan Gumus

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate relations between problematic internet use, violence trend and some demographic variables in university students. Methods: The study was conducted with students studying at a state university. The sample consisted of 375 university students as 201 female and 174 male. The data were collected using Demographic Information Form, Internet Addiction Scale (IAS and Violence Proneness Scale (VPS. In the analysis of the data; descriptive statistics student t test, ANOVA, Post hoc Tukey HSD test, pearson correlation analysis and stepwise hierarchical regression analysis were used. Results: The mean age of the students was 21.04+/-1.65 years (age range 18-28 years. It was found that 82.7% of the students in the study group use internet with the purpose of information, and 78.4% of the students use internet for social and entertainment purposes. According to IAS points; 3.7% of the students are problematic internet use, whereas 30.4% show borderline indications in terms of problematic internet use. According to VPS points; 40% of students have high trend of violence and 2.7% of the students have very high trend of violence. A positive relationship was determined between IAS and VPS mean scores (r=0.346, p<0.01. Duration of internet use, violence trend, internet use for social and entertainment purposes and gender are the variables that predict problematic internet use level. Problematic internet use, friend relationships, duration of mother education, gender and duration of internet use are significant predictors of violence trend. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that a significant portion of university students are at risk of problematic internet use and high violence trend. It is believed that the findings obtained in this research will be beneficial in terms of taking necessary measures for groups at risk and of raising awareness among university students. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2015; 14(6.000: 460-467

Significant changes in sexual behavior after a diagnosis of human papillomavirus-positive and human papillomavirus-negative oral cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Taberna, Miren; Inglehart, Ronald C; Pickard, Robert K L; Fakhry, Carole; Agrawal, Amit; Katz, Mira L; Gillison, Maura L

2017-04-01

Sexual behavior and oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection are risk factors for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). The effects of OSCC diagnosis and treatment on subsequent relationship stress and sexual behavior are unknown. Incident cases of HPV-positive or HPV-negative OSCC in patients who had a partnered relationship and partners of patients with oropharyngeal cancer were eligible for a study in which surveys were administered at diagnosis and at the 6-month follow-up time point to assess relationship distress, HPV transmission and concerns about health consequences, and sexual behavior. The frequency distributions of responses, stratified by tumor HPV status, were compared at baseline and follow-up. In total, 262 patients with OSCC and 81 partners were enrolled. Among the patients, 142 (54.2%) had HPV-positive OSCC, and 120 (45.8%) had HPV-negative OSCC. Relationship distress was infrequently reported, and 69% of patients felt that their relationship had strengthened since the cancer diagnosis. Both HPV-positive patients (25%) and their partners (14%) reported feelings of guilt or responsibility for the diagnosis of an HPV-caused cancer. Concern over sexual, but not nonsexual, HPV transmission to partners was reported by 50%. Significant declines in the frequency of vaginal and oral sexual behaviors were reported at follow-up, regardless of tumor HPV status. From baseline to 6 months, significant increases in abstinence from vaginal sex (from 10% to 34%; P oral sex (from 25% to 80%; P oral sex, regardless of tumor HPV status. Sexual behavior is an important quality-of-life outcome to assess within clinical trials. [See related editorial on pages 000-000, this issue.] Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2017;123:1156-1165. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

gain due to ice dynamics of 103±15 Gt/yr but this was offset by a negative trend in SMB of 47 Gt/yr, resulting in an overall positive trend of 56±15 Gt/yr. Over 2003-08, the ice dynamics trend is 96 Gt/yr, offset by a strong negative SMB trend of -81 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 15±13Gt/yr. Even after relaxing the ice dynamics constraint over East Antarctica, we are unable to reproduce the large positive trend obtained in Zwally2015. We conclude that this result is inconsistent with the combined observations, irrespective of any assumption made about the density of surface elevation changes.

Rabies trends and surveillance capabilities in Zambia | Kabaso ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The main objective of this study was to assess the trends, distribution and positivity rate of rabies cases in Zambia. A retrospective study for the period of 10 years between 2004 and 2014, was conducted by using rabies case reports. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and geo-coded in Quantum ...

Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

2015-01-01

-sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

Cotton trends in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

Cultural trends and eating disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pike, Kathleen M.; Hoek, Hans W.; Dunne, Patricia E.

Purpose of review Culture has long been recognized as significant to the cause and expression of eating disorders. We reviewed the recent literature about recent trends in the occurrence of eating disorders in different cultures. Recent findings While historically, eating disorders were

Cultural trends and eating disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pike, Kathleen M.; Hoek, Hans W.; Dunne, Patricia E.

2014-01-01

Purpose of review Culture has long been recognized as significant to the cause and expression of eating disorders. We reviewed the recent literature about recent trends in the occurrence of eating disorders in different cultures. Recent findings While historically, eating disorders were

FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

2012-10-04

The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

Primary pulmonary non-small cell carcinomas: the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program confirms a significant trend toward subcategorization based upon fine-needle aspiration cytomorphology alone.

Science.gov (United States)

Yildiz-Aktas, Isil Z; Sturgis, Charles D; Barkan, Guliz A; Souers, Rhona J; Fraig, Mostafa M; Laucirica, Rodolfo; Khalbuss, Walid E; Moriarty, Ann T

2014-01-01

Context.-Subtyping of non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) is necessary for optimal patient management with specific diagnoses triggering specific molecular tests and affecting therapy. Objective.-To assess the accuracy of the participants of the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program in diagnosing and subtyping NSCLC fine-needle aspiration (FNA) slides, based on morphology alone, considering preparation and participant type and trends over time. Design.-The performance of program participants was reviewed for the 5-year period spanning 2007-2011. Lung FNA challenges with reference diagnoses of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were evaluated for diagnostic concordance by using a nonlinear mixed model analysis. Results.-There were 10 493 pathologist and 6378 cytotechnologist responses with concordance rates of 97.4% and 97.9% for malignancy, respectively. Overall concordance rates for subcategorization were 54.6% for adenocarcinoma and 74.9% for SCC. For the exact reference diagnoses, pathologists performed better for adenocarcinoma and cytotechnologists performed better for SCC. Accurate subcategorization of adenocarcinomas significantly increased over time with 31.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2007 and 25.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2011 (P alone. During the study period, a statistically significant trend was confirmed toward greater accuracy of subcategorization of adenocarcinomas, suggesting that participants are cognizant of the impact that more specific cytomorphologic interpretations have in directing molecular triage and therapy.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

Science.gov (United States)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

Contemporary trends in the hotel industry development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barjaktarović Dragan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available International tourism has a leading position in the world's economy at the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. The number of participants in international tourism is near one billion tourists. Tourism FX income is above USD 1.260 billion, globally. More than 2/3 of total tourism turn over is provided by hospitality and restaurants business, which is the best indicator of relevance of those industries, for further development of total economic development and the tourism. Projections of different relevant world's institutions go in direction that tourism will have dynamic developing trend which will provide its' stronger position in the world's industry development. In accordance with UNWTO's estimations, number of foreign tourists will increase up to 1.8 million and FX tourist income is expected to reach USD 2.000 billion at the end of 2030. In order to meet the sophisticated requests of the modern tourists and provide an answer to contemporary market trends, hotel industry, as the base part of tourism, will respond with the new qualitative, technology based facilities and services.

Incidence and mortality trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia, 1988-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, Ina; Jakšić, Ozren; Kuliš, Tomislav; Batinjan, Katarina; Znaor, Ariana

2012-01-01

Aim To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes. Methods The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends. Results Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%). Conclusion While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future. PMID:22522989

Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-05-01

Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

Drift-corrected Odin-OSIRIS ozone product: algorithm and updated stratospheric ozone trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. E. Bourassa

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A small long-term drift in the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS stratospheric ozone product, manifested mostly since 2012, is quantified and attributed to a changing bias in the limb pointing knowledge of the instrument. A correction to this pointing drift using a predictable shape in the measured limb radiance profile is implemented and applied within the OSIRIS retrieval algorithm. This new data product, version 5.10, displays substantially better both long- and short-term agreement with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone throughout the stratosphere due to the pointing correction. Previously reported stratospheric ozone trends over the time period 1984–2013, which were derived by merging the altitude–number density ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II satellite instrument (1984–2005 and from OSIRIS (2002–2013, are recalculated using the new OSIRIS version 5.10 product and extended to 2017. These results still show statistically significant positive trends throughout the upper stratosphere since 1997, but at weaker levels that are more closely in line with estimates from other data records.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Branding trends in Asian markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Diederich; Segers, Rien

This chapter examines current branding trends in significant Asian markets, namely Japan, South Korea, and India, with a special focus on one emerging branding nation, China. No generalizations towards the whole of Asia can be drawn from this research. However, research identified some aspects in

Time trends for injuries and illness, and their relation to performance in the National Basketball Association.

Science.gov (United States)

Podlog, Leslie; Buhler, Craig F; Pollack, Harvey; Hopkins, Paul N; Burgess, Paul R

2015-05-01

To survey injury/illness in the National Basketball Association over a 25-year period and examine the relationship of injury/illness to team performance. A retrospective correlational design. Trends were examined in reported numbers of players injured/ill during a season and games missed due to injury/illness from seasons ending in 1986 through 2005. This period was compared to years 2006-2010, when NBA teams were allowed to increase the total number of players on the team from 12 to 15. There was a highly significant trend (pBasketball Association up until the expansion of team size in 2006. Following 2006, team expansion was positively associated with decreased injury/illness rates. The latter finding suggests the importance of maintaining a healthy roster with respect to winning outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

2015-06-01

This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

2013-01-01

Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

Snow in Castile-León: trends and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Merino, A.; Campos, L.; López, L.; García-Ortega, E.; Sánchez, J. L.; Marcos, J. L.; Guerrero-Higueras, A. M.

2012-04-01

The location of Castile and León, inside the Iberian Peninsula, in the Northwestern quadrant, determines, in large measure, the climatic conditions of its territory, granting it very characteristic traits, mostly in the mountainous areas. It is important to note that during a large part of the year, the region is under the influence of Jet Stream, and thus, gives way to very diverse dynamic situations, which turn into different and heterogeneous types of weather. So, in many areas of the region, especially in the most elevated areas, these synoptic and mesoscale situations generate snow precipitation. We should point out that snowfall is one of the principal meteorological risks of Castile and León. Thus, on average, in some mountainous areas there are more than 40 events of snowfall registered annually, with the month of January being the month in which the highest frequency of snowfall appears. The social repercussions of this snowfall are represented in the isolation of places, essentially mountainous, highways being blocked, increase in traffic accidents, etc. As proof of this, it is this type of episode that receives ample coverage by the media, which has a linear relationship with the social perception of risk. As such, the objective of the current work is to analyze the annual trend of days with snow in the different meteorological stations pertaining to AEMET placed in the Community. The period of study is from 1960-2010. Additionally, we have also evaluated trends in annual days of freezing temperature and annual absolute minimum temperature, with the objective of facilitating a meteorological interpretation of the trends obtained on days with snowfall. Finally, the results show that in the majority of stations, a significant negative trend in days with snowfall and annual days with freezing temperatures, and a positive trend in annual absolute minimum temperatures. However, we observed variability in the different regions in the area of study

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Incidence, trends and demographics of Staphylococcus aureus infections in Auckland, New Zealand, 2001–2011

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background New Zealand has a higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus disease than other developed countries, with significant sociodemographic variation in incidence rates. In contrast to North America, the majority of disease is due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), although relatively little is known about the comparative demographics of MSSA and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) infections in New Zealand. Methods Our objectives were to describe the trends, incidence and patient demographics of all S. aureus infections in patients presenting to our institution between 2001 and 2011, and compare the epidemiology of MSSA and MRSA infections. We identified all patients with S. aureus infections over the study period. A unique S. aureus infection was defined as the first positive S. aureus culture taken from the same patient within a thirty-day period. Standard definitions were used to classify episodes into community- or healthcare-associated S. aureus infection. Results There were 16,249 S. aureus infections over the study period. The incidence increased significantly over the study period from 360 to 412 per 100,000 population (P New Zealand. The significant increase in community-associated S. aureus infections is of public health importance. Future studies should investigate the reasons underlying this concerning trend. PMID:24299298

Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina

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de la Casa, Antonio; Nasello, Olga

2010-03-01

Long-term rainfall variability in the Province of Córdoba, Argentina is studied. The methodology used was developed by Tomé and Miranda (2004), and the most notable breakpoints in the time series were determined in order to identify sudden transitions from one period to another with a different linear trend sign. All the rain gauges operated by the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (SMN) of Argentina in Córdoba Province, in the period 1930-2006, were analyzed. One of the stations studied, Córdoba Observatorio, has reliable rainfall data since 1873. In this case, the 1925-2006 period and the 1873-2006 period were studied to analyze the influence of series length in terms of the piecewise linear trends produced. Analyzing only one breakpoint in all the series, a trend change is observed from negative to positive in the 1950s in the north area of the region, while in the other areas the opposite change occurs in the 1970s. The residual sum of squares obtained with the partial trend method is compared to that produced by the traditional method. This comparison shows how the multiple trend method enables regional changes to be determined for a given climatological variable.

A Noise Trimming and Positional Significance of Transposon Insertion System to Identify Essential Genes in Yersinia pestis

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zheng Rong; Bullifent, Helen L.; Moore, Karen; Paszkiewicz, Konrad; Saint, Richard J.; Southern, Stephanie J.; Champion, Olivia L.; Senior, Nicola J.; Sarkar-Tyson, Mitali; Oyston, Petra C. F.; Atkins, Timothy P.; Titball, Richard W.

2017-02-01

Massively parallel sequencing technology coupled with saturation mutagenesis has provided new and global insights into gene functions and roles. At a simplistic level, the frequency of mutations within genes can indicate the degree of essentiality. However, this approach neglects to take account of the positional significance of mutations - the function of a gene is less likely to be disrupted by a mutation close to the distal ends. Therefore, a systematic bioinformatics approach to improve the reliability of essential gene identification is desirable. We report here a parametric model which introduces a novel mutation feature together with a noise trimming approach to predict the biological significance of Tn5 mutations. We show improved performance of essential gene prediction in the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. This method would have broad applicability to other organisms and to the identification of genes which are essential for competitiveness or survival under a broad range of stresses.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Selected trends in breast cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Mardiak, J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of malignant tumors in women and so poses a serious social and economic problem. Aims: By analysing the trends of the basic indicators of breast cancer descriptive epidemiology in Slovakia, the prospective development was predicted, providing the missing information needed to assess the impact of intervention programmes. Results: The age-standardised incidence of breast cancer in Slovakia shows a strongly rising trend by an annual percentage change value of 2.2%, whereby in respect of mortality, after a previous significant decrease in values recorded in the period 2000-2009, stabilisation is registered once again with an annual percentage change of 3.4% (without statistical significance). Conclusion: Adverse trends in the development of breast cancer mortality in Slovakia underline the importance of establishing and monitoring the efficacy of intervention steps as part of organised screening. (author)

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

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China Supakorn

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

Relationship of condylar position to disc position and morphology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Incesu, L.; Taskaya-Yilmaz, N. E-mail: nergizy@omu.edu.tr; Oeguetcen-Toller, M.; Uzun, E

2004-09-01

Introduction/objective: The purpose of this study was to assess whether condylar position, as depicted by magnetic resonance imaging, was an indicator of disc morphology and position. Methods and material: One hundred and twenty two TMJs of 61 patients with temporomandibular joint disorder were examined. Condylar position, disc deformity and degree of anterior disc displacement were evaluated by using magnetic resonance imaging. Results and discussion: Posterior condyle position was found to be the main feature of temporomandibular joints with slight and moderate anterior disc displacement. No statistical significance was found between the condylar position, and reducing and nonreducing disc positions. On the other hand, superior disc position was found to be statistically significant for centric condylar position. Conclusion: It was concluded that posterior condyle position could indicate anterior disc displacement whereas there was no relation between the position of condyle and the disc deformity.

Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael

2016-06-01

Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER

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N. JIPA

2012-03-01

Full Text Available TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER. In the context of climate change at global and regional scale, this study intends to identify the trends in variability of the annual and monthly flow of Teleajen river. The study is based on processing the series of mean, maximum and minimum flows at Cheia and Moara Domnească hydrometric stations (these data were taken from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. The period of analysis is 1966-1998, statistical methods beeing mostly used, among which the Mann – Kendall test, that identifies the liniar trend and its statistic significance, comes into focus. The trends in the variability of water annual and monthly flows are highlighted. The results obtained show downward trends for the mean and maximum annual flows, and for the minimum water discharge, a downward trend for Cheia station and an upward trend for Moara Domnească station. Knowing the trends in the variability of the rivers’ flow is important empirically in view of taking adequate administration measures of the water resources and managment measures for the risks lead by extreme hidrologic events (floods, low-water, according to the possible identified changes.

Housing & woodworking: latest trends & impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Urs Buehlmann; Matt Bumgardner; Karen. Koenig

2014-01-01

Trends in housing and other construction-related sectors continue to have a significant impact on the wood products industry, particularly cabinetry, furniture, millwork and components. This fifth annual survey assesses the market conditions for secondary woodworking manufacturers involved in construction-based sectors and includes information on their status and...

Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

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Arun Kumar Taxak

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

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Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

2017-09-01

Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

Science.gov (United States)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

The Hotel as the Holiday/Stay destination: Trends and Innovations.

OpenAIRE

Hackett, Gereva; Melia, Detta

2012-01-01

This paper analyses trends in the international hotel industry and provides insights into the trends that are most likely to influence future business success. Trends, such as, design, social and lifestyle changes, the eco-hotel, the historically significant hotel, the sports hotel, the health spa, the quirky hotel, the boutique hotel and the fashionable hotel which are differentiating the traditional hotel product are discussed. This paper is based on primary and secondary research providing...

Trends in alcohol-related harms and offences in a liberalized alcohol environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Huckle, Taisia; Pledger, Megan; Casswell, Sally

2006-02-01

To assess alcohol-related harms and offences in New Zealand from 1990 to 2003, a period of alcohol policy liberalization, that included the lowering of the purchase age from 20 to 18 years in 1999. Time trend analyses were carried out on routinely collected data for prosecutions for driving with excess alcohol; alcohol-involved vehicle crashes (all and fatal) and prosecutions for disorder offences. These were carried out separately for those aged 14-15, 16-17, 18-19, 20-24 and 25 years and over. Rates of: prosecutions for driving with excess alcohol (1990-2003); rates of alcohol- involved vehicle crashes (all and fatal) (1990-2003); and rates of prosecutions for disorder offences (1994-2003). Effects of alcohol policy liberalization: positive trends were found in the rates of prosecutions for disorder in the 16-17, 18-19, 20-24 and 25 + age groups; with 18-19-year-olds and 16-17-year-olds having the largest rates and largest positive trend in rates. For 16-17-year-olds, there was a positive trend in the rates of prosecutions for excess breath alcohol. Negative trends in rates were found for alcohol-related crashes (all and fatal) among all age groups. Negative trends for those over 16-17 years were found for prosecutions for driving with excess breath alcohol (this was prior to the lowering of the purchase age). Effects of lowering the minimum purchase age: the lowering of minimum purchase age coincided with an increase in the trend of alcohol-related crashes for 18-19-year-olds; the next largest increase was among the 20-24-year-olds (all other age groups also increased but at a much lower rate). A similar result was found for driving with excess alcohol for those aged 18-19 (and those aged 20-24 years). An increase in the rates of prosecutions for disorder offences occurred for the 14-15-year-old group following the lowering of the purchase age. The liberalization of alcohol throughout the 1990s may have influenced younger people more, as reflected in increases

Trend of Elevator-Related Accidents in Tehran

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Ali Khaji

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background:   Elevator-related accidents are uncommon, but can cause significant injury. However, little data exist on these types of accidents. To compile and analyze accident data involving elevators in an effort to eliminate or at least significantly reduce such accidents. Methods: In this retrospective study we investigated 1,819 cases of elevator-related accidents during a four-year period (1999-2003 in Tehran. The data were obtained from the Tehran Safety Services & Fire Fighting Organization (TSFO that is officially and solely responsible to conduct rescue missions of civilians in Tehran. Results: The number of elevator accidents has increased steadily during the four year study period. During these four years here was a positive upward trend for serious injuries and mortality resulting from elevator accidents. Technical problems were the main cause with 74.5%, followed by power loss and overcapacity riding with 11.5% and 7.9%respectively. Sixty-three individuals sustained serious injury and 15 people died as a result of elevator accidents. The number of accidents was significantly higher in summer (x2=18.32, P=0.032 and a considerable proportion of incidences (54%, 947 cases out of 1819 occurred between 5 and 12 pm. Conclusions: Establishment of an organization to inspect the settings, maintenance, and repair of elevators is necessary

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

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Ying Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

Spatial and Temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Trends, Glacio-Isostatic Adjustment, and Surface Processes from a Joint Inversion of Satellite Altimeter, Gravity, and GPS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Espanol, Alba; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Clarke, Peter J.; Flament, Thomas; Helm, Veit; King, Matt A.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Petrie, Elizabeth; Remy, Frederique; Schon, Nana;

Whole-body computed tomography in trauma patients: optimization of the patient scanning position significantly shortens examination time while maintaining diagnostic image quality

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Hickethier T

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Tilman Hickethier,1,* Kamal Mammadov,1,* Bettina Baeßler,1 Thorsten Lichtenstein,1 Jochen Hinkelbein,2 Lucy Smith,3 Patrick Sven Plum,4 Seung-Hun Chon,4 David Maintz,1 De-Hua Chang1 1Department of Radiology, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; 2Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; 3Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Canada; 4Department of General, Visceral and Cancer Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: The study was conducted to compare examination time and artifact vulnerability of whole-body computed tomographies (wbCTs for trauma patients using conventional or optimized patient positioning. Patients and methods: Examination time was measured in 100 patients scanned with conventional protocol (Group A: arms positioned alongside the body for head and neck imaging and over the head for trunk imaging and 100 patients scanned with optimized protocol (Group B: arms flexed on a chest pillow without repositioning. Additionally, influence of two different scanning protocols on image quality in the most relevant body regions was assessed by two blinded readers. Results: Total wbCT duration was about 35% or 3:46 min shorter in B than in A. Artifacts in aorta (27 vs 6%, liver (40 vs 8% and spleen (27 vs 5% occurred significantly more often in B than in A. No incident of non-diagnostic image quality was reported, and no significant differences for lungs and spine were found. Conclusion: An optimized wbCT positioning protocol for trauma patients allows a significant reduction of examination time while still maintaining diagnostic image quality. Keywords: CT scan, polytrauma, acute care, time requirement, positioning

Recent history of trends in vegetation greenness and large-scale ecosystem disturbances in Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potter, Christopher; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Kumar, Vipin; Klooster, Steven

2007-01-01

Recent patterns of land cover and vegetation dynamics on the Euasian continent have been linked to changes in the global carbon cycle. Our study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-yr record of global satellite observations of terrestrial vegetation from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major trends in both vegetation 'greenness' and ecosystem disturbance. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide has been computed from the AVHRR at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 2000 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 8 km globally. Unlike previous studies of the AVHRR multiyear time-series of vegetation dynamics, the 8-km spatial resolution makes it possible to compare disturbance events and greenness trends at the same level of spatial detail. Positive trends in FPAR were detected throughout a major greenbelt of central-eastern Europe starting in the mid-1980s. This Eurasian greenbelt extended in a wide swath over the Urals, into the vicinity of Lake Baykal south of the central Siberian plateau, mainly along a latitude belt from 55 deg N to 65 deg N. There was also significantly positive greening in relatively large areas of Great Britain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, the Caucasus and southern India. Nonetheless, a strong downward trend in the FPAR time-series over most of Eurasia was observed by the end of the 1990s. Throughout the 19-yr time period, Eurasia was also impacted by many notable droughts and other disturbance events that could have substantially offset decadal carbon gains attributed to satellite-observed greening. Large-scale ecosystems disturbance events were identified in the FPAR time-series by locating anomalously low values (FPAR-LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 8-km pixel. We find verifiable evidence of numerous disturbance types across Eurasia, including regional patterns of severe droughts, forest fires and insect

Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

2008-07-01

Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

Application of neural network in market segmentation: A review on recent trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manojit Chattopadhyay

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Despite the significance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm to market segmentation, there is a need of a comprehensive literature review and a classification system for it towards identification of future trend of market segmentation research. The present work is the first identifiable academic literature review of the application of neural network based techniques to segmentation. Our study has provided an academic database of literature between the periods of 2000–2010 and proposed a classification scheme for the articles. One thousands (1000 articles have been identified, and around 100 relevant selected articles have been subsequently reviewed and classified based on the major focus of each paper. Findings of this study indicated that the research area of ANN based applications are receiving most research attention and self organizing map based applications are second in position to be used in segmentation. The commonly used models for market segmentation are data mining, intelligent system etc. Our analysis furnishes a roadmap to guide future research and aid knowledge accretion and establishment pertaining to the application of ANN based techniques in market segmentation. Thus the present work will significantly contribute to both the industry and academic research in business and marketing as a sustainable valuable knowledge source of market segmentation with the future trend of ANN application in segmentation.

Evaluating the Accuracy of MODIS Products in the Southern Scean Using Tagged Marine Predators, and Measuring Significant Change in 12 Years of [Chl-a], Zeu and Cloud Fraction Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Biermann, L.; Boehme, L.; Guinet, C.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean is vital to the functioning of our global atmospheric and marine systems. However, this key ocean is also measurably responsive to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Decreased ozone and increases in greenhouse gases appear to be forcing the SAM towards its positive phase, significantly changing wind patterns and, thus, altering mixing and circulation regimes of Southern Ocean waters. Inevitably, these changes must impact on patterns of phytoplankton abundance and distribution. Using remotely sensed data that have been evaluated alongside in situ data collected by tagged southern elephant seals, this work investigates if changes to summer phytoplankton abundance and distribution in the Southern Ocean can already be measured in the 12-year MODIS record. Patterns and trends in surface chlorophyll-a concentration ([Chl-a]), the depth of the 1% light level (Zeu) and mean cloud fraction are examined over time, as well as relative to the SAM. Trends in [Chl-a] and Zeu over the months of October, November and December suggest overall declines in surface phytoplankton, and shifts in timing of blooms. Indeed, by January and February over the 12-year timeseries, trends reverse to suggest increases in phytoplankton abundance. Relative to the increasingly positive SAM, trends of overall decline in phytoplankton abundance are significant only over Decembers. Trends in cloud cover are more difficult to interpret but the Atlantic Ocean appears to be becoming less cloudy, the southern sector of the Pacific Ocean appears to be becoming cloudier, and that the southern sector of the Indian Ocean is most variable over time. Only the increase in cloud over the southern Pacific in Decembers appears to be significantly related to changes to the SAM. Interestingly, in no cases were the changes to [Chl-a], Zeu or cloud cover strictly zonal. The asymmetry of these results reinforces findings from

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

Marital Satisfaction Trends in Hong Kong Between 2002 and 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huiping; Fan, Susan; Yip, Paul

2016-07-03

Macrosocial changes may generate influences on marital quality. This study used data from the 2002-2012 Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice surveys conducted by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong to track the trends of marital satisfaction of both husbands and wives over a 10-year period in Hong Kong, with associated factors. Results indicated that 85% of the husbands and around 80% of the wives reported that they were satisfied with their marital relationships, and no significant changes in general were observed for them between 2002 and 2012 except for some subgroups. Husbands aged 45-49 years, in employment and whose monthly household income between 25,000 HKD and 39,999 HKD, reported marital satisfaction decreased over the past 10 years and wives with primary education or below also reported a decreasing trend during this period. Education and family income had positive influences on the husbands' and wives' marital satisfaction, and husbands were more likely to be sensitive to the unemployment. Less than one-third of couples needed professional counseling on family-related issues, and couple conflicts and work-family conflicts were the urgent needs that should be given priority in delivering services. The implications of this study are discussed in the Chinese context of Hong Kong.

Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

2015-04-01

This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Factors associated with specific causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the D:A:D Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smith, Colette; Sabin, Caroline A; Lundgren, Jens D

2010-01-01

To investigate any emerging trends in causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the current cART era, and to investigate the factors associated with each specific cause of death.......To investigate any emerging trends in causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the current cART era, and to investigate the factors associated with each specific cause of death....

Clinical significance of coryneform Gram-positive rods from blood identified by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and their susceptibility profiles - a retrospective chart review.

Science.gov (United States)

Mushtaq, Ammara; Chen, Derrick J; Strand, Gregory J; Dylla, Brenda L; Cole, Nicolynn C; Mandrekar, Jayawant; Patel, Robin

2016-07-01

With the advent of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), most Gram-positive rods (GPRs) are readily identified; however, their clinical relevance in blood cultures remains unclear. Herein, we assessed the clinical significance of GPRs isolated from blood and identified in the era of MALDI-TOF MS. A retrospective chart review of patients presenting to the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, from January 1, 2013, to October 13, 2015, was performed. Any episode of a positive blood culture for a GPR was included. We assessed the number of bottles positive for a given isolate, time to positivity of blood cultures, patient age, medical history, interpretation of culture results by the healthcare team and whether infectious diseases consultation was obtained. We also evaluated the susceptibility profiles of a larger collection of GPRs tested in the clinical microbiology laboratory of the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN from January 1, 2013, to October 31, 2015. There were a total of 246 GPRs isolated from the blood of 181 patients during the study period. 56% (n = 101) were deemed contaminants by the healthcare team and were not treated; 33% (n = 59) were clinically determined to represent true bacteremia and were treated; and 8% (n = 14) were considered of uncertain significance, with patients prescribed treatment regardless. Patient characteristics associated with an isolate being treated on univariate analysis included younger age (P = 0.02), identification to the species level (P = 0.02), higher number of positive blood culture sets (P < 0.0001), lower time to positivity (P < 0.0001), immunosuppression (P = 0.03), and recommendation made by an infectious disease consultant (P = 0.0005). On multivariable analysis, infectious diseases consultation (P = 0.03), higher number of positive blood culture sets (P = 0.0005) and lower time to positivity (P = 0.03) were associated with an isolate being treated. 100, 83, 48 and 34% of GPRs

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vehicle positioning based on UWB technology

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Siquan; Kang, Min; She, Chundong

2017-08-01

In recent years, with the rapid increase of the number of urban cars, the vehicle internet is becoming a trend of smart transportion. In such vehicle network, accurate location is very crucial in many new applications such as autopilot, semi-autopilot and Car-to-x communications. UWB technology has been used for indoor closed range positioning and ranging widely, while UWB outdoor positioning and ranging research is relatively less. This paper proposed UWB as the vehicle positioning technology and developed a method based on two-way-ranging (TWR) to solve the ranging problem between vehicles. At the same time, the improved TOA method was used to locate vehicles, which has higher precision compared with traditional GPS or LBS. A hardware module is introduced and the simulation results show that the modules are capable of precise positioning for vehicles in vehicle network.

Rigorous determination of stratospheric water vapor trends from MIPAS observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ceccherini, Simone; Carli, Bruno; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco

2011-05-09

The trend of stratospheric water vapor as a function of latitude is estimated by the MIPAS measurements by means of a new method that uses the measurement space solution. The method uses all the information provided by the observations avoiding the artifacts introduced by the a priori information and by the interpolation to different vertical grids. The analysis provides very precise values of the trends that, however, are limited by a relatively large systematic error induced by the radiometric calibration error of the instrument. The results show in the five years from 2005 to 2009 a dependence on latitude of the stratospheric (from 37 to 53 km) water vapor trend with a positive value of (0.41 ± 0.16)%yr-1 in the northern hemisphere and less than 0.16%yr-1 in the southern hemisphere.

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

Secular trends of growth and pubertal maturation of school children in Southern Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaruratanasirikul, Somchit; Sriplung, Hutcha

2015-01-01

In Thailand, studies of growth date back to 1975, but there have been no studies examining any trends in increasing/decreasing growth. To determine if there have been any secular trends of increasing/decreasing growth and/or ages at puberty in Thai children. In 2012, a cross-sectional study of growth was conducted in 3460 children. The median heights and weights and the ages of pubertal maturation were compared with previous studies. Correlations between the secular trends and the health statistics indicators were calculated. From 1975-2012, the median final height of boys and girls had increased by 1.32 and 0.86 cm/decade and weight by 2.49 and 1.76 kg/decade, respectively. In girls, the age at thelarche and menarche had declined by 0.39 and 0.12 years/decade, respectively. In boys, the age at testicular enlargement Tanner II had declined by 0.15 years/decade. Increased physical growth was positively correlated to life expectancy, per capita income and prevalence of overweight/obesity was negatively correlated to prevalence of malnutrition and under-five mortality rate. The positive secular trend towards an increase in growth and a decline in the age at onset of puberty of Thai children is correlated with improvements in overall living conditions in Thailand.

A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.

2002-05-01

A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.

Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Brandt

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

Time-course of attentional bias for positive social words in individuals with high and low social anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hongyu; Li, Songwei; Qian, Mingyi; Yang, Peng; Wang, Xiaoling; Lin, Muyu; Yao, Nisha

2014-07-01

Although accumulating research demonstrates the association between attentional bias and social anxiety, the bias for positive stimuli has so far not been adequately studied. The aim is to investigate the time-course of attentional bias for positive social words in participants with high and low social anxiety. In a modified dot-probe task, word-pairs of neutral and positive social words were randomly presented for 100, 500, and 1250 milliseconds in a nonclinical sample of students to test their attentional bias. Non-significant interaction of Group × Exposure Duration was found. However, there was a significant main effect of group, with significantly different response latencies between the high social anxiety (HSA) and low social anxiety (LSA) groups in the 100 ms condition, without for 500 or 1250 ms. With respect to attentional bias, the LSA group showed enhanced preferential attention for positive social words to which the HSA group showed avoidance in the 100 ms condition. In the 500 ms condition, preferential attention to positive social words was at trend in the LSA group, relative to the HSA group. Neither group showed attentional bias in the 1250 ms condition. These findings extend recent research about the attention training program and add to the empirical literature suggesting that the initial avoidance of positive stimuli may contribute to maintaining social anxiety.

Revolutionary business trends in supply chain management

OpenAIRE

Mijušković Veljko

2010-01-01

Contemporary turbulent business conditions in the era of high technology bring inherent rapid changes. In order to survive, the imperative set upon all market players is not the position of a follower but more of an anticipator and trend setter. These unexpected changes erase existing business models, traditional enterprise paradigms and customary philosophies. A business isolated in its way of seeing operations and unconnected with other strategic constituents within the supply chain is dest...

Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.

2018-03-01

Nowadays, the study of the upper atmosphere is increasing, mostly because of the need to understand the patterns of Earth's atmosphere. Since studies on global warming have become very important for the development of new technologies, understanding all regions of the atmosphere becomes an unavoidable task. In this paper, we aim to analyze the temperature variability and its trend in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during a period of 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). For this purpose, three different heights, i.e., 85, 90 and 95 km, were focused on in order to investigate the upper atmosphere, and a geographic region different to other studies was chosen, in the southern region of Brazil, centered in the city of Santa Maria, RS (29°41'02'' S; 53°48'25'' W). In order to reach the objectives of this work, temperature data from the SABER instrument (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry), aboard NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, were used. Finally, two cases were studied related to distinct grids of latitude/longitude used to obtain the mean temperature profiles. The first case considered a grid of 20° × 20° lat/long, centered in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. In the second case, the region was reduced to a size of 15° × 15° in order to compare the results and discuss the two cases in terms of differences or similarities in temperature trends. Observations show that the size of the geographical area used for the average temperature profiles can influence the results of variability and trend of the temperature. In addition, reducing the time duration of analyses from 24 to 12 h a day also influences the trend significantly. For the smaller geographical region (15° × 15°) and the 12 h daily time window (09:00-21:00 UT) it was found that the main contributions for the temperature variability at the three heights were the annual and semi-annual cycles and the solar flux influence

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1–0.2 g m −2 year −1 with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m −2 year −1 is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− and NH 4 + /SO 4 2− in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. -- Highlights: • Significant decrease of sulphur deposition at most of sites has been recorded. • Nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests. • Significantly increasing trends of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− , NH 4 + /SO 4 2− , and pH in precipitation. -- While sulphur deposition significantly decreased with the highest improvement in formerly most affected areas, nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests

Engaging in an experiential processing mode increases positive emotional response during recall of pleasant autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadeikis, Darius; Bos, Nikita; Schweizer, Susanne; Murphy, Fionnuala; Dunn, Barnaby

2017-05-01

It is important to identify effective emotion regulation strategies to increase positive emotion experience in the general population and in clinical conditions characterized by anhedonia. There are indications that engaging in experiential processing (direct awareness of sensory and bodily experience) bolsters positive emotion experience but this has not been extensively tested during memory recall. To further test this notion, 99 community participants recalled two positive autobiographical memories. Prior to the second recall, participants either underwent an experiential, analytical, or distraction induction (n = 33 per condition). Subjective happiness and sadness ratings and heart rate variability (HRV) response were measured during each recall. Greater spontaneous use of experiential processing during the first memory was associated with greater happiness experience, but was unrelated to HRV and sadness experience. Inducing experiential processing increased happiness experience relative to both the analytical and distraction conditions (but had no impact on sadness experience). There was a significant difference in HRV between conditions. The experiential condition led to a trend-significant increase, and the other conditions a non-significant decrease, in HRV from the first to the second memory. These results suggest that engaging in experiential processing is an effective way to up-regulate positive emotion experience during positive memory recall. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL TOURISM UNDER ECONOMIC TRANSITION: NATIONAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL DISPARITIES

OpenAIRE

Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen); Guo, Rong; Wang, Qingbin

2003-01-01

China's Tourism industry, especially international tourism, has expanded rapidly since its market-oriented economic reform started in 1978. There has been limited information regarding the trends and regional disparities. This paper examines the national trends of China's international tourism since 1982 and analyzes the changes in regional disparities since 1995. While the trend analysis suggests that China's international tourism is likely to keep growing at a significant rate, the analysis...

Current trends in ion implantation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gwilliam, R.M.

2001-01-01

As semiconductor device dimensions continue to shrink, the drive beyond 250 nm is creating significant problems for the device processor. In particular, trends toward shallower-junctions, lower thermal budgets and simplified processing steps present severe challenges to ion implantation. In parallel with greater control of the implant process goes the need for a better understanding of the physical processes involved during implantation and subsequent activation annealing. For instance, the need for an understanding of dopant-defect interaction is paramount as defects mediate a number of technologically important phenomena such as transient enhanced diffusion and impurity gettering. This paper will outline the current trends in the ion implantation and some of the challenges it faces in the next decade, as described in the semiconductor roadmap. It will highlight some recent positron annihilation work that has made a contribution to addressing one of these challenges, namely the need for tighter control of implant uniformity and dose. Additionally, some vacancy-mediated processes are described with the implication that these may provide areas in which positron annihilation spectroscopy could make a significant contribution. (orig.)

Oil prices: Breaks and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera, José

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

Socioeconomic position and risk of short-term weight gain: Prospective study of 14,619 middle-aged men and women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luben Robert N

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The association between socioeconomic position in middle age and risk of subsequent, short-term weight gain is unknown. We therefore assessed this association in a prospective population based cohort study in Norfolk, UK. Methods We analysed data on 14,619 middle-aged men and women (aged between 40–75 at baseline with repeated objective measures of weight and height at baseline (1993–1997 and follow up (1998–2000. Results During follow up 5,064 people gained more than 2.5 kg. Compared with the highest social class, individuals in the lowest social class had around a 30% greater risk of gaining more than 2.5 kg (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11–1.51; p for trend = 0.002. This association remained statistically significant following adjustment for sex, age, baseline BMI, smoking, and follow up time (OR 1.25; CI 1.07–1.46; p for trend Conclusion Individuals of low socioeconomic position are at greatest risk of gaining weight during middle age, which is not explained by classical correlates of socioeconomic position and risk factors for obesity.

Characteristics and trends of radiology research: a survey of original articles published in AJR and Radiology between 2001 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Kyoung Ja; Yoon, Dae Young; Yun, Eun Joo; Seo, Young Lan; Baek, Sora; Gu, Dong Hyeon; Yoon, Soo Jeong; Han, Ari; Ku, You Jin; Kim, Sam Soo

2012-09-01

To determine the characteristics and trends of the original articles published in two major American radiology journals, AJR American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR) and Radiology, between 2001 and 2010. This was a retrospective bibliometric analysis that did not involve human subjects and was exempt from institutional review board approval. All 6542 original articles published in AJR and Radiology between 2001 and 2010 were evaluated. The following information was abstracted from each article: radiologic subspecialty, radiologic technique used, type of research, sample size, study design, statistical analysis, study outcome, declared funding, number of authors, affiliation of the first author, and country of the first author. In addition, all the variables examined were presented along with the trend over time. The most common subspecialty of study was abdominal (1219 of 6542, 18.6%), followed by vascular/interventional (804 of 6542, 12.3%). A total of 3744 (57.2%) original articles used magnetic resonance (MR) imaging or computed tomography (CT), 5495 (84.1%) were clinical research articles, 3060 (46.8%) had sample size of more than 50, 4087 (62.5%) were retrospective, 4714 (72.1%) performed statistical analysis, 6225 (95.2%) showed positive study outcome, 4784 (73.1%) were not funded, 3942 (60.3%) had four to seven authors, and 5731 (87.6%) were written by the primary author who was from a department of radiology or radiology-related specialties. The United States published 45.5% (2975 of 6542) of the articles, followed by Japan (n = 525, 8.0%), Germany (n = 485, 7.4%), and South Korea (n = 455, 7.0%). In the time trend analysis, the following variables showed a significantly positive trend: cardiac subspecialty, CT and MR imaging as the radiologic techniques, type of research as other (nonbasic, nonclinical), sample size of more than 50, four to seven as the number of authors, medicine-related department of the first author, and South Korea and Italy as

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Franzke

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ² distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

of CO_2 emissions is good news compared to previous years. This is mainly due to the relative weakness of economic growth. Achieving the goals discussed at the COP21 (1.5 to 2 deg. temperature increase by the end of the century), in fact requires a lasting stagnation of global energy consumption and a strong reduction of CO_2 emissions. Thus, with a global GDP growth assumption of 3% per year, this would imply an average carbon intensity reduction target of 5 to 6% per year... (Source: EnerFuture Scenarios - Enerdata) If energy consumption is stagnating, however, we find different trends according to the markets: The oil market is particularly linked to the transport sector; the increase in demand recorded in 2015 (+2%) derives primarily from the increase in vehicle fleet (China, India...) and to a lesser extent from lower prices (particularly in the US). The decline in investments in the upstream sector leaves us to predict, however, a decrease in mid-term production capacity and new pressure on supply/demand.. Gas demand remained stable in 2015: The structural increase continues in the US (replacing coal); in a more cyclical manner, the demand benefited from a colder climate in Europe but fell sharply in Russia (economic recession). At the production level, the US is No. 1 worldwide before Russia, but with a downward trend for several months (shale gas). Coal consumption decreases: Confirming the surprise in 2014: thanks to a new decline observed in China (-3.7%) and in the US (-11%), and despite continued strong growth in India, demand for coal shrinks at the G20 level (-2.7%). Stagnation of power consumption: The demand in power has been stagnant for several years in developed countries. The result is more surprising for non-OECD countries, where growth shrinks significantly. Is this a sign of a slowdown of the increasing weight of power in the overall mix? Power mix continues its slow transformation: In recent years, energy policies have shown visible effects

Ambient air quality trends in Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This document provided an overview of ambient air pollutant trends in Alberta. The report discussed the following pollutants having effect on human and environmental health: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2 S ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2 .5), benzene, and benzopyrene. Each of these pollutants was described. The report provided data on annual average concentration trends and annual 99th percentile concentration as an indicator of peak concentrations. A map illustrating air quality monitoring stations in 2006 was also provided. The findings revealed that mean annual CO levels were the lowest they have been since 1990; hydrogen sulphide concentrations have fluctuated in time since 1990; most Edmonton and Calgary area stations showed significant decreasing trends in annual average NO 2 levels since 1990; and higher SO 2 concentrations have been found in the industrial areas of Alberta, such as the Redwater and Scotford oil sands locations. tabs., figs

High Prevalence and Significance of Hepatitis D Virus Infection among Treatment-Naïve HBsAg-Positive Patients in Northern Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Sy, Bui Tien; Ratsch, Boris A.; Toan, Nguyen Linh; Song, Le Huu; Wollboldt, Christian; Bryniok, Agnes; Nguyen, Hung Minh; Luong, Hoang Van; Velavan, Thirumalaisamy P.; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Kremsner, Peter G.; Bock, C.-Thomas

2013-01-01

Background Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection is considered to cause more severe hepatitis than hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. With more than 9.5 million HBV-infected people, Vietnam will face an enormous health burden. The prevalence of HDV in Vietnamese HBsAg-positive patients is speculative. Therefore, we assessed the prevalence of HDV in Vietnamese patients, determined the HDV-genotype distribution and compared the findings with the clinical outcome. Methods 266 sera of well-characterized HBsAg-positive patients in Northern Vietnam were analysed for the presence of HDV using newly developed HDV-specific RT-PCRs. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed for HDV-genotyping. Results The HDV-genome prevalence observed in the Vietnamese HBsAg-positive patients was high with 15.4% while patients with acute hepatitis showed 43.3%. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated a predominance of HDV-genotype 1 clustering in an Asian clade while HDV-genotype 2 could be also detected. The serum aminotransferase levels (AST, ALT) as well as total and direct bilirubin were significantly elevated in HDV-positive individuals (p<0.05). HDV loads were mainly low (<300 to 4.108 HDV-copies/ml). Of note, higher HDV loads were mainly found in HBV-genotype mix samples in contrast to single HBV-infections. In HBV/HDV-coinfections, HBV loads were significantly higher in HBV-genotype C in comparison to HBV-genotype A samples (p<0.05). Conclusion HDV prevalence is high in Vietnamese individuals, especially in patients with acute hepatitis B. HDV replication activity showed a HBV-genotype dependency and could be associated with elevated liver parameters. Besides serological assays molecular tests are recommended for diagnosis of HDV. Finally, the high prevalence of HBV and HDV prompts the urgent need for HBV-vaccination coverage. PMID:24205106

Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna M Magera

Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

2018-01-01

and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

Phylogenetic trends in phenolic metabolism of milkweeds (Asclepias): evidence for escalation.

Science.gov (United States)

Agrawal, Anurag A; Salminen, Juha-Pekka; Fishbein, Mark

2009-03-01

Although plant-defense theory has long predicted patterns of chemical defense across taxa, we know remarkably little about the evolution of defense, especially in the context of directional phylogenetic trends. Here we contrast the production of phenolics and cardenolides in 35 species of milkweeds (Asclepias and Gomphocarpus). Maximum-likelihood analyses of character evolution revealed three major patterns. First, consistent with the defense-escalation hypothesis, the diversification of the milkweeds was associated with a trend for increasing phenolic production; this pattern was reversed (a declining evolutionary trend) for cardenolides, toxins sequestered by specialist herbivores. Second, phylogenetically independent correlations existed among phenolic classes across species. For example, coumaric acid derivatives showed negatively correlated evolution with caffeic acid derivatives, and this was likely driven by the fact that the former are used as precursors for the latter. In contrast, coumaric acid derivatives were positively correlated with flavonoids, consistent with competition for the precursor p-coumaric acid. Finally, of the phenolic classes, only flavonoids showed correlated evolution (positive) with cardenolides, consistent with a physiological and evolutionary link between the two via malonate. Thus, this study presents a rigorous test of the defense-escalation hypothesis and a novel phylogenetic approach to understanding the long-term persistence of physiological constraints on secondary metabolism.

Nationalist movement’s trends in contemporary Nigerian government and politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shittu, M

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to understand the contemporary issues in Nigerian Government and Politics through an assessment of the nationalist movement and its persistent and recurrent trends in the contemporary Nigeria, and how these trends continue to affect the present socio-political issues in the country. This is carried out through mobilization of certain variables of political development theory despite its inability to explain the position of indigenous African people in the alien Western political institutions. Based on this, it is revealed that everything went well until that time the ground was made for power politics in which indigenous African people became players.

International nurse migrations: Global trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivković Marija

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents global trends of migration of nurses, as specific qualified personnel in high demand. In the last couple of decades, and especially in the last couple of years, many countries have faced the problem of insufficient healthcare workers, particularly nurses. Reasons for this occurrence might be found in the deficiencies of their education systems, as well as the population aging of northern and western countries. As a response to this deficiency, those countries have begun intensive recruitment of foreign qualified female healthcare workers, which has led to the point that nurse migration today presents a very intense, and by many accounts specific migration flow. Female migrating work force is often in pursuit of low-wage and lowqualified work. Nurse migration is actually an example of motion of qualified female migrants in pursuit for better employment opportunities. While such a way of filling up the vacant positions works for the “importing” countries as a temporary solution, departure of trained female personnel presents a significant loss for the originating countries. In this paper we pay special attention to the countries who are the main “importers”, but also to those who are “exporters” of nursing personnel, and to specific national strategies these countries have applied.

Cancer burden trends in Umbria region using a joinpoint regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Michele Masanotti

2015-09-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION. The analysis of the epidemiological data on cancer is an important tool to control and evaluate the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention, the effectiveness of health care and, in general, all cancer control activities. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The aim of the this paper is to analyze the cancer mortality in the Umbria region from 1978 to 2009 and incidence from 1994-2008. Sex and site-specific trends for standardized rates were analyzed by "joinpoint regression", using the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER software. RESULTS. Applying the jointpoint analyses by sex and cancer site, to incidence spanning from 1994 to 2008 and mortality from 1978 to 2009 for all sites, both in males and females, a significant joinpoint for mortality was found; moreover the trend shape was similar and the joinpoint years were very close. In males standardized rate significantly increased up to 1989 by 1.23% per year and significantly decreased thereafter by -1.31%; among females the mortality rate increased in average of 0.78% (not significant per year till 1988 and afterward significantly decreased by -0.92% per year. Incidence rate showed different trends among sexes. In males was practically constant over the period studied (not significant increase 0.14% per year, in females significantly increased by 1.49% per year up to 2001 and afterward slowly decreased (-0.71% n.s. estimated annual percent change − EAPC. CONCLUSIONS. For all sites combined trends for mortality decreased since late '80s, both in males and females; such behaviour is in line with national and European Union data. This work shows that, even compared to health systems that invest more resources, the Umbria public health system achieved good health outcomes.

Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hines, Paul; Apt, Jay; Talukdar, Sarosh

2009-01-01

Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.

Benchmarking 2010: Trends in Education Philanthropy

Science.gov (United States)

Bearman, Jessica

2010-01-01

"Benchmarking 2010" offers insights into the current priorities, practices and concerns of education grantmakers. The report is divided into five sections: (1) Mapping the Education Grantmaking Landscape; (2) 2010 Funding Priorities; (3) Strategies for Leveraging Greater Impact; (4) Identifying Significant Trends in Education Funding; and (5)…

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

Science.gov (United States)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2012-11-15

In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Recent trend and perspectives in forensic anthropology: a bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Fonti, Giulia

2013-06-01

This paper evaluates research in Forensic Anthropology (FA) in order to report on the state of this field of science. In particular, we carried out a review of all PubMed-listed scientific studies in the past decades using "forensic anthropology" as the keyword. In our "meta-analysis", we observed variation in the number of publications per 2-year interval throughout the study period. In total, 1589 studies were found in the database and 1292 of them were published in the period 2000-2009. There was a significant positive correlation between the number of published articles and time (subdivided into 2-year intervals). The rate of increase was lower in the last decade. Based on the observed trend, we expect that the phenomenon will continue in the near future, reaching a number close to 400 FA publications in PubMed in the biennium 2012-13. We also carried out a specific content analysis of all FA papers published in the journal Forensic Science International in the last decade. During this period, the majority of FA papers concerned skeletal biology, although there was a positive shift toward virtual anthropological studies.

The Significance of Protein Components in Heterogeneous Eggs for Embrionic Development and Larvas Persistence of Cyprinidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zalepukhin Valeriy Vladimirovich

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Endogenous heterogeneity of females and their eggs is one of the most important factors of annual generation’s formation in nature-spawn and incubative centers. Its assessment is significant for comprehending the notion of biochemical changes in proximate prespawn period. Between the shares of egg’s biochemical composition of Cyprinidae species only protein and b-lipoproteids levels are incovering constant and authentic correlations with embrionic development and larval survival in the conditions of artificial reproduction. The promotion of protein’s level to 20 – 24 % (in wet weigth in percolating eggs positively affects the fertilization and larvae vitality. This trend is fair for the domesticated and nature-spawn fish. The same significance is important for the b-lipoproteids level in ovular eggs of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella Val.. The optimal concentration is 100-200 mg % in wet weight.

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

The Significance of Malaysian Real Estate Research Agenda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Najib Razali

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates research agenda by the Malaysian real estate researchers (MRERs. This study adopts a deskwork approach by examining research papers published in leading real estate journals, both international and local and papers presented in main real estate conferences from 1997 to 2010. In addition, the number of research papers published and presented were also assessed from several main real estate research journals in the US, UK, Asia/Australia and Malaysia and conferences such as American Real Estate Society (ARES, European Real Estate Society (ERES, Pacific Rim Real Estate Society (PRRES, Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES and local conference; International Real Estate Research Symposium (IRERS. The study indicates that the Malaysian real estate researchers (MRERs have made a positive contribution to the global real estate research. Nevertheless, there is still more effort needed in order to compete in the global real estate research agenda. It is anticipated that this trend will change since the Malaysian government has emphasised on improving the quality of higher learning institutions' for which research and publication will be the main agenda. The contribution from MRERs will significantly improve Malaysian universities standing in global ranking.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Trends in PET imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moses, William W.

2000-01-01

Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is a well established method for obtaining information on the status of certain organs within the human body or in animals. This paper presents an overview of recent trends PET instrumentation. Significant effort is being expended to develop new PET detector modules, especially those capable of measuring depth of interaction. This is aided by recent advances in scintillator and pixellated photodetector technology. The other significant area of effort is development of special purpose PET cameras (such as for imaging breast cancer or small animals) or cameras that have the ability to image in more than one modality (such as PET / SPECT or PET / X-Ray CT)

Trends in family tourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heike A. Schänzel

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

National and State Trends in Sales of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes, U.S., 2011-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Marynak, Kristy L; Gammon, Doris G; King, Brian A; Loomis, Brett R; Fulmer, Erika B; Wang, Teresa W; Rogers, Todd

2017-07-01

In recent years, self-reported cigarette smoking has declined among youth and adults, while electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased. However, sales trends for these products are less certain. This study assessed national and state patterns of U.S. cigarette and e-cigarette unit sales. Trends in cigarette and e-cigarette unit sales were analyzed using retail scanner data from September 25, 2011 through January 9, 2016 for: (1) convenience stores; and (2) all other outlets combined, including supermarkets, mass merchandisers, drug, dollar, and club stores, and military commissaries (online, tobacco-only, and "vape" shops were not available). Data by store type were available for the total contiguous U.S. and 29 states; combined data were available for the remaining states, except Alaska, Hawaii, and DC. During 2011-2015, cigarette sales exhibited a small, significant decrease; however, positive year-over-year growth occurred in convenience stores throughout most of 2015. E-cigarette unit sales significantly increased during 2011-2015, but year-over-year growth slowed and was occasionally negative. Cigarette unit sales exceeded e-cigarettes by 64:1 during the last 4-week period. During 2014-2015, cigarette sales increases occurred in 15 of 48 assessed states; e-cigarette sales increased in 18 states. Despite overall declines during 2011-2015, cigarette sales in 2015 grew for the first time in a decade. E-cigarette sales growth was positive, but slowed over the study period in assessed stores. Cigarette sales continued to exceed e-cigarette sales, reinforcing the importance of efforts to reduce the appeal and accessibility of cigarettes and other combusted tobacco products. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.-P. Ho

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate radio occultation (RO under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW radiometer – COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade−1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63, which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade−1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62. The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40–60° N and 40–65° S, and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade−1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor–temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical

Multi-platform Integrated Positioning and Attitude Determination using GNSS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buist, P.J.

2013-01-01

There is trend in spacecraft engineering toward distributed systems where a number of smaller spacecraft work as a larger satellite. However, in order to make the small satellites work together as a single large platform, the precise relative positions (baseline) and orientations (attitude) of the

Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

Trends in nicotine yield in smoke and its relationship with design characteristics among popular US cigarette brands, 1997-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Gregory N; Alpert, Hillel R; Wayne, Geoffrey Ferris; Koh, Howard

2007-10-01

To determine whether nicotine yields in the smoke of cigarettes would show an overall increase over time or an increasing trend limited to any particular market category (eg, full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight; mentholated vs non-mentholated), manufacturer, or brand family or brand style, and whether nicotine yields in smoke would be associated with measurable trends in cigarette design. Machine-based measures of nicotine yield in smoke and measures of cigarette design features related to nicotine delivery (ventilation, nicotine content in the tobacco rod and number of puffs), as well as market category descriptors, were obtained from annual reports filed with the Massachusetts Department of Public by tobacco manufacturers for 1997-2005. Trends in nicotine yield and its relationship with design features and market parameters were analysed with multilevel mixed-effects regression modelling procedures. A statistically significant trend was confirmed in increased nicotine yield, of 0.019 (1.1%) mg/cig/year over the period 1997-2005 and 0.029 (1.6%) mg/cig/year over the period 1998-2005. The increasing trend was observed in all major market categories (mentholated vs non-mentholated, and full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight). Nicotine yield in smoke was positively associated with nicotine concentration in the tobacco and number of puffs per cigarette, both of which showed increasing trends during the study period. This study confirms increased machine-measured levels of nicotine, the addictive agent in cigarettes, in smoke, to be a result of increased nicotine in the tobacco rod and other design modifications.

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

Positive Selection and Centrality in the Yeast and Fly Protein-Protein Interaction Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandip Chakraborty

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Proteins within a molecular network are expected to be subject to different selective pressures depending on their relative hierarchical positions. However, it is not obvious what genes within a network should be more likely to evolve under positive selection. On one hand, only mutations at genes with a relatively high degree of control over adaptive phenotypes (such as those encoding highly connected proteins are expected to be “seen” by natural selection. On the other hand, a high degree of pleiotropy at these genes is expected to hinder adaptation. Previous analyses of the human protein-protein interaction network have shown that genes under long-term, recurrent positive selection (as inferred from interspecific comparisons tend to act at the periphery of the network. It is unknown, however, whether these trends apply to other organisms. Here, we show that long-term positive selection has preferentially targeted the periphery of the yeast interactome. Conversely, in flies, genes under positive selection encode significantly more connected and central proteins. These observations are not due to covariation of genes’ adaptability and centrality with confounding factors. Therefore, the distribution of proteins encoded by genes under recurrent positive selection across protein-protein interaction networks varies from one species to another.

Trends in baseline CD4 cell counts and risk factors for late antiretroviral therapy initiation among HIV-positive patients in Shanghai, a retrospective cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Jianjun; Liu, Li; Shen, Jiayin; Chen, Panpan; Lu, Hongzhou

2017-04-19

There are few studies focus on the factors underlying the late initiation of ART in China. We analyzed the trends in the median CD4 cell counts among different patient groups over time and the risk factors for the late initiation of ART in Shanghai, China. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was made in the Department of Infectious Disease of Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center which is a designated diagnosis and treatment center for HIV-positive patients in Shanghai during the period of January 1st, 2008--June 30th, 2014. Late ART initiation was defined as a CD4 cell count 30 years) (p HIV exposure who are male, older even heterosexual orientation should be given more opportunities to receive frequently screening, earlier diagnoses and timely treatment.

ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

annual, Kiremt (June-September) and Belg (February-May) rainfall, using I 0 selected ... the significance of trends in hydrometer-logical time series (Yue et al., 2002(2)). The .... then the Auto Regressive One (AR (I)) is removed from the r,' by.

Development of Quantitative Framework for Event Significance Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Durk Hun; Kim, Min Chull; Kim, Inn Seock

2010-01-01

There is an increasing trend in quantitative evaluation of the safety significance of operational events using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) technique. An integrated framework for evaluation of event significance has been developed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS), which consists of an assessment hierarchy and a number of matrices. The safety significance of various events, e.g., internal or external initiating events that occurred during at-power or shutdown conditions, can be quantitatively analyzed using this framework, and then, the events rated according to their significance. This paper briefly describes the basic concept of the integrated quantitative framework for evaluation of event significance, focusing on the assessment hierarchy

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glenn Verner

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. Design: We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. Results: The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively, which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014. However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs, remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, predominantly in Europe and North America. Conclusions: There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming.

Science.gov (United States)

Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-01-01

Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulomi Ganguli

2016-12-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

2015-06-01

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

Nasoduodenal tube placement: Are two views necessary to confirm position?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ngo, Anh-Vu; Done, Stephen; Otto, Randolph; Friedman, Seth; Stanescu, A.L. [Seattle Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Seattle, WA (United States)

2017-09-15

Nasoduodenal tube (NDT) placement is typically performed at the bedside and two-view abdominal radiographs are usually used to confirm tube position. Anecdotally, in most instances the lateral view is unnecessary and utilizes more than twice the radiation than an anteroposterior (AP) view alone. We hypothesize that NDT location can be determined using only the AP view, with the NDT position determined on two views utilized as the gold standard. A search was performed for all two- or three-view abdominal radiographs from September 2012 to September 2013 with the phrase ''ND tube'' in the reason field of the requisition. These studies were independently reviewed by two radiologists and scored for anatomical tube position in three different scenarios: AP view alone, the lateral view alone, and both views together, with the latter serving as the gold standard. The anatomical scores were subsequently grouped to reflect clinically significant scenarios. Comparative analysis was performed with the original and clinically grouped scores. A total of 102 patients and 306 separate two-view exams were evaluated. Of the 102 patients, 55 had at least two separate exams. Across raters, concordances of AP and lateral scores relative to the gold standard assessment were 88% and 73% for anatomical scores, and 91.5% and 86.4% for clinically grouped data. Trend differences for fewer errors were found with the AP compared to the lateral view. There were statistically significant group differences with a greater number of false-negative errors in the lateral data set. No clear differences were found when comparing AP and lateral ratings for false-positive errors. Upon review of the common errors, we determined a few imaging findings on AP radiographs that can help assess the need for an additional lateral view. A single AP view is sufficient to determine the NDT position in most cases. Two views should be reserved for cases where the NDT position cannot be

Nasoduodenal tube placement: Are two views necessary to confirm position?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngo, Anh-Vu; Done, Stephen; Otto, Randolph; Friedman, Seth; Stanescu, A.L.

2017-01-01

Nasoduodenal tube (NDT) placement is typically performed at the bedside and two-view abdominal radiographs are usually used to confirm tube position. Anecdotally, in most instances the lateral view is unnecessary and utilizes more than twice the radiation than an anteroposterior (AP) view alone. We hypothesize that NDT location can be determined using only the AP view, with the NDT position determined on two views utilized as the gold standard. A search was performed for all two- or three-view abdominal radiographs from September 2012 to September 2013 with the phrase ''ND tube'' in the reason field of the requisition. These studies were independently reviewed by two radiologists and scored for anatomical tube position in three different scenarios: AP view alone, the lateral view alone, and both views together, with the latter serving as the gold standard. The anatomical scores were subsequently grouped to reflect clinically significant scenarios. Comparative analysis was performed with the original and clinically grouped scores. A total of 102 patients and 306 separate two-view exams were evaluated. Of the 102 patients, 55 had at least two separate exams. Across raters, concordances of AP and lateral scores relative to the gold standard assessment were 88% and 73% for anatomical scores, and 91.5% and 86.4% for clinically grouped data. Trend differences for fewer errors were found with the AP compared to the lateral view. There were statistically significant group differences with a greater number of false-negative errors in the lateral data set. No clear differences were found when comparing AP and lateral ratings for false-positive errors. Upon review of the common errors, we determined a few imaging findings on AP radiographs that can help assess the need for an additional lateral view. A single AP view is sufficient to determine the NDT position in most cases. Two views should be reserved for cases where the NDT position cannot be

Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Zeleňáková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

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Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

On the Nature of Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

2010-01-01

A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

Trends in U.S. Pediatric Otolaryngology Fellowship Training.

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Espinel, Ali; Poley, Marian; Zalzal, George H; Chan, Kenny; Preciado, Diego

2015-10-01

Interest in pediatric otolaryngology fellowship training is growing. The workforce implications of this growing interest are unclear and understudied. To analyze trends in pediatric otolaryngology training, determine where fellows who graduated over the past 10 years are currently practicing, and test the hypothesis that graduates from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)–accredited programs were more likely to have academic tertiary positions with faculty appointments. We conducted a web-based analysis of pediatric otolaryngology fellowship graduates. The names of all 274 applicants who were matched to pediatric otolaryngology fellowships from May 31, 2003, to May 31, 2014, were obtained from the SF Match website. Accreditation status of each program for each match year was obtained from the ACGME website. We then performed an Internet search for the current practice location of each matched applicant. Analysis was conducted from January 1, 2015, to May 1, 2015. Practice setting per year of fellowship match and accreditation status of program. For the 2003 to the 2014 match years, there was an increase from 5 to 22 accredited pediatric otolaryngology fellowship programs overall; simultaneously, the number of yearly matched applicants increased from 14 to 35. More graduates with ACGME accreditation practice at academic settings compared with graduates without ACGME accreditation although the difference was not statistically significant (67.1% vs. 50.7%; P = .15). Graduates from accredited programs, however, were significantly more likely to practice at a hospital-based setting compared with those from nonaccredited programs (81.7% vs. 65.5%; P = .003). Fellows trained in the last 10 years are relatively well distributed across the country. The number of pediatric otolaryngology fellowship applicants as well as total number of matched applicants and ACGME-accredited positions has risen in the last 10 years. It appears that a higher

MIPAS ESA v7 carbon tetrachloride data: distribution, trend and atmospheric lifetime estimation

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Valeri, M.; Barbara, F.; Boone, C. D.; Ceccherini, S.; Gai, M.; Maucher, G.; Raspollini, P.; Ridolfi, M.; Sgheri, L.; Wetzel, G.; Zoppetti, N.

2017-12-01

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is a strong ozone-depleting atmospheric gas regulated by the Montreal protocol. Recently it received increasing interest due to the so called "mystery of CCl4": it was found that its atmospheric concentration at the surface declines with a rate significantly smaller than its lifetime-limited rate. Indeed there is a discrepancy between atmospheric observations and the estimated distribution based on the reported production and consumption. Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements are used to estimate CCl4 distributions, its trend, and atmospheric lifetime in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In particular, here we use MIPAS product generated with Version 7 of the Level 2 algorithm operated by the European Space Agency. The CCl4 distribution shows features typical of long-lived species of anthropogenic origin: higher concentrations in the troposphere, decreasing with altitude due to the photolysis. We compare MIPAS CCl4 data with independent observations from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE - FTS) and stratospheric balloon version of MIPAS (MIPAS-B). The comparison shows a general good agreement between the different datasets. CCl4 trends are evaluated as a function of both latitude and altitude: negative trends (-10/ -15 pptv/decade, -10/ -30 %/decade) are found at all latitudes in the UTLS, apart from a region in the Southern mid-latitudes between 50 and 10 hPa where the trend is slightly positive (5/10 pptv/decade, 15/20 %/decade). At the lowest altitudes sounded by the MIPAS scan we find trend values consistent with those determined on the basis of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Earth System Research Laboratory / Halocarbons and other Atmospheric Trace Species (NOAA / ESRL / HATS) networks. CCl4 global average lifetime of 47(39 - 61) years has been

Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

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Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

2014-01-01

Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

Prognostic significance of urokinase plasminogen activator and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 mRNA expression in lymph node- and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leissner, Philippe; Verjat, Thibault; Bachelot, Thomas; Paye, Malick; Krause, Alexander; Puisieux, Alain; Mougin, Bruno

2006-01-01

One of the most thoroughly studied systems in relation to its prognostic relevance in patients with breast cancer, is the plasminogen activation system that comprises of, among others, the urokinase Plasminogen Activator (uPA) and its main inhibitor, the Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 (PAI-1). In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 at the mRNA level in lymph node- and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. The study included a retrospective series of 87 patients with hormone-receptor positive and axillary lymph node-positive breast cancer. All patients received radiotherapy, adjuvant anthracycline-based chemotherapy and five years of tamoxifen treatment. The median patient age was 54 and the median follow-up time was 79 months. Distant relapse occurred in 30 patients and 22 patients died from breast cancer during follow-up. We investigated the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 at the mRNA level as measured by real-time quantitative RT-PCR. uPA and PAI-1 gene expression was not found to be correlated with any of the established clinical and pathological factors. Metastasis-free Survival (MFS) and Breast Cancer specific Survival (BCS) were significantly shorter in patients expressing high levels of PAI-1 mRNA (p < 0.0001; p < 0.0001; respectively). In Cox multivariate analysis, the level of PAI-1 mRNA appeared to be the strongest prognostic factor for MFS (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 10.12; p = 0.0002) and for BCS (HR = 13.17; p = 0.0003). Furthermore, uPA gene expression was not significantly associated neither with MFS (p = 0.41) nor with BCS (p = 0.19). In a Cox-multivariate regression analysis, uPA expression did not demonstrate significant independent prognostic value. These findings indicate that high PAI-1 mRNA expression represents a strong and independent unfavorable prognostic factor for the development of metastases and for breast cancer specific survival in a population of hormone receptor- and lymph node-positive breast cancer

Prognostic significance of urokinase plasminogen activator and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 mRNA expression in lymph node- and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krause Alexander

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background One of the most thoroughly studied systems in relation to its prognostic relevance in patients with breast cancer, is the plasminogen activation system that comprises of, among others, the urokinase Plasminogen Activator (uPA and its main inhibitor, the Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 (PAI-1. In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 at the mRNA level in lymph node- and hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Methods The study included a retrospective series of 87 patients with hormone-receptor positive and axillary lymph node-positive breast cancer. All patients received radiotherapy, adjuvant anthracycline-based chemotherapy and five years of tamoxifen treatment. The median patient age was 54 and the median follow-up time was 79 months. Distant relapse occurred in 30 patients and 22 patients died from breast cancer during follow-up. We investigated the prognostic value of uPA and PAI-1 at the mRNA level as measured by real-time quantitative RT-PCR. Results uPA and PAI-1 gene expression was not found to be correlated with any of the established clinical and pathological factors. Metastasis-free Survival (MFS and Breast Cancer specific Survival (BCS were significantly shorter in patients expressing high levels of PAI-1 mRNA (p PAI-1 mRNA appeared to be the strongest prognostic factor for MFS (Hazard Ratio (HR = 10.12; p = 0.0002 and for BCS (HR = 13.17; p = 0.0003. Furthermore, uPA gene expression was not significantly associated neither with MFS (p = 0.41 nor with BCS (p = 0.19. In a Cox-multivariate regression analysis, uPA expression did not demonstrate significant independent prognostic value. Conclusion These findings indicate that high PAI-1 mRNA expression represents a strong and independent unfavorable prognostic factor for the development of metastases and for breast cancer specific survival in a population of hormone receptor- and lymph node-positive breast cancer patients.

Natural gas 1995: Issues and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-11-01

Natural Gas 1995: Issues and Trends addresses current issues affecting the natural gas industry and markets. Highlights of recent trends include: Natural gas wellhead prices generally declined throughout 1994 and for 1995 averages 22% below the year-earlier level; Seasonal patterns of natural gas production and wellhead prices have been significantly reduced during the past three year; Natural gas production rose 15% from 1985 through 1994, reaching 18.8 trillion cubic feet; Increasing amounts of natural gas have been imported; Since 1985, lower costs of producing and transporting natural gas have benefitted consumers; Consumers may see additional benefits as States examine regulatory changes aimed at increasing efficiency; and, The electric industry is being restructured in a fashion similar to the recent restructuring of the natural gas industry.

A significant positive correlation between endogenous trans-zeatin content and total arsenic in arsenic hyperaccumulator Pteris cretica var. nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuemei; Yang, Xiaoyan; Wang, Hongbin; Li, Qinchun; Wang, Haijuan; Li, Yanyan

2017-04-01

A pot experiment was conducted to compare the content of endogenous trans-zeatin (Z), plant arsenic (As) uptake and physiological indices in the fronds of As-hyperaccumulator (Pteris cretica var. nervosa) and non-hyperaccumulator (Pteris ensiformis). Furthermore, a stepwise regression method was used to study the relationship among determined indices, and the time-course effect of main indices was also investigated under 100mg/kg As stress with time extension. In the 100-200mg/kg As treatments, plant height showed no significant difference and endogenous Z content significantly increased in P. cretica var. nervosa compared to the control, but a significant decrease of height and endogenous Z was observed in P. ensiformis. The concentrations of As (III) and As (V) increased significantly in the fronds of two plants, but this increase was much higher in P. cretica var. nervosa. Compared to the control, the contents of chlorophyll and soluble protein were significantly increased in P. cretica var. nervosa but decreased in P. ensiformis in the 200mg/kg As treatment, respectively. A significant positive correlation was found between the contents of endogenous Z and total As in P. cretica var. nervosa, but such a correlation was not found in P. ensiformis. Additionally, in the time-course effect experiment, a peak value of each index was appeared in the 43rd day in two plants, except for chlorophyll in P. ensiformis, but this value was significantly higher in P. cretica var. nervosa than that in P. ensiformis. In conclusion, a higher endogenous Z content contributed to As accumulation of P. cretica var. nervosa under As stress. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health social work in Canada: Five trends worth noting.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryson, Stephanie A; Bosma, Harvey

2018-05-30

Highlighting a strong human rights and social justice orientation underlying health social work in Canada, this paper describes recent contributions of Canadian health social work practitioners and scholars to five areas identified by Auslander (2001) in a delphi study of health social work in its first century. Five current 'trends' are discussed which correspond with Auslander's themes of professional legitimacy and scope, social causation, dissemination of knowledge, interventions, and cultural appropriateness. These trends are: 1) defining the scope of health social work practice; 2) addressing the social determinants of health; 3) promoting evidence-based practice in health social work; 4) delivering client and family-centered care; and 5) implementing cultural safety and trauma-informed practice. Suggestions are made to further strengthen the position of health social work in Canada.

Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2008-01-01

Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahgedanova, Maria; Lamakin, Mikhail

2005-01-01

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 deg N and 80.6 deg N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1980s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high AOD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or